Satellite observations of air quality of megacities in China

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, N.; Valks, P.; Smedt, I. D.; Loyola, D.; Roozendael, M. V.; Zhou, B.; Zimmer, W.

2012-04-01

In the last three decades, air pollution has become a major environmental issue in metropolitan areas of China as a consequence of fast industrialization and urbanization, and the rapid increase of the vehicle ownership. Now in China there are 3 megacities (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) in existence. A recent study of Asian megacities showed that they cover less than 2% of the land area, hold more than 30% of the population and produce about 10% of the anthropogenic gas and aerosol emissions. Therefore, it is important to qualify and understand current air pollution distribution and development in and around the megacities of China. Satellite observations provide unique insight into the regional air quality around megacities and air pollution transport from surrounding areas. In this work, we present an investigation of air quality over Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou combining satellite and ground-based measurements. Aerosol optical thickness (AOT), precursors of ozone (notably NO2 and CH2O), and SO2 are observed from space. The operational GOME-2 trace gases products developed at German Aerospace Center and MODIS AOT products will be used. Moreover, near surface concentrations of particular matter (PM), NO2 and SO2 in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are investigated. The effect of air pollution transport from neighboring areas to megacities will be researched using satellite measurements. Initial comparison between satellite and ground-based measurements of air pollutants in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou will be shown. We will present the relationship between AOT and PM concentrations in megacities. The use of AOT, tropospheric NO2 and CH2O columns for air quality applications will also be shown.

Megacity precipitationsheds reveal tele-connected water security challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Gordon, Line J.

2018-01-01

Urbanization is a global process that has taken billions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated urban centers, adding pressure to existing water resources. Many cities are specifically reliant on renewable freshwater regularly refilled by precipitation, rather than fossil groundwater or desalination. A precipitationshed can be considered the “watershed of the sky” and identifies the origin of precipitation falling in a given region. In this paper, we use this concept to determine the sources of precipitation that supply renewable water in the watersheds of the largest cities of the world. We quantify the sources of precipitation for 29 megacities and analyze their differences between dry and wet years. Our results reveal that 19 of 29 megacities depend for more than a third of their water supply on evaporation from land. We also show that for many of the megacities, the terrestrial dependence is higher in dry years. This high dependence on terrestrial evaporation for their precipitation exposes these cities to potential land-use change that could reduce the evaporation that generates precipitation. Combining indicators of water stress, moisture recycling exposure, economic capacity, vegetation-regulated evaporation, land-use change, and dry-season moisture recycling sensitivity reveals four highly vulnerable megacities (Karachi, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing). A further six megacities were found to have medium vulnerability with regard to their water supply. We conclude that understanding how upwind landscapes affect downwind municipal water resources could be a key component for understanding the complexity of urban water security. PMID:29534109

Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Dang, H.; Unger, N.

2015-10-01

We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

Bioindication of atmospheric trace metals - With special references to megacities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markert, Bernd; Wuenschmann, Simone; Fraenzle, Stefan; Graciana Figueiredo, Ana Maria; Ribeiro, Andreza P.; Wang Meie

2011-01-01

After considering the particular problems of atmospheric pollution in megacities, i.e. agglomerations larger than 5 mio. inhabitants, with urbanization of World's population going on steadily, possibilities of active biomonitoring by means of green plants are discussed. Based on specific definitions of active and passive bioindication the chances of monitoring heavy metals in Sao Paulo megacity were demonstrated (first results published before). This is to show that there is need for increased use of bioindication to tackle the particular problems of megacities concerning environmental 'health', the data to be processed according to the Multi-Markered-Bioindication-Concept (MMBC). Comparison to other work shows this approach to be reasonable. - Highlights: → Chemical Pollution. → Bioindication. → Multi-Markered-Bioindication-Concept (MMBC). → Mega cities. - Bioindication is a relevant technique for observing the atmospheric deposition of chemical elements of the environment in megacities.

The role of utilities in developing low carbon, electric megacities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, Chris; Stewart, Iain D.; Facchini, Angelo; Mele, Renata

2017-01-01

Development of electric cities, with low carbon power supply, is a key strategy for reducing global CO2 emissions. We analyze the role of electric utilities as important actors to catalyze the transition to electric cites, drawing upon data for the world's 27 megacities. Progress towards the ideal electric city is most advanced for Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires for low carbon electricity, while Indian megacities have relatively high use of carbon-intensive electricity as a percentage of total energy use. There is wide variety in the structure of markets for electricity provision in megacities, with a dominant, public utility being the most common model. We review literature on electricity sector business models and broadly propose future models dependent on the predominance of locally dispersed generation and the nature of the ownership of the electric grid within the city. Where a high proportion of electricity can be provided by locally distributed supply within a city, the role of utilities could predominantly become that of enabler of exchange with the grid, but new pricing structures are required. A further challenge for utilities in enabling the electric city is to provide a higher level of resilience to events that disrupt power supply. - Highlights: • Amongst 27 megacities, Paris, Rio, Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires are most progressed low carbon electric cities. • Indian megacities have relatively high use of electricity as a percentage of total energy use. • Wide variety in electricity market structure in megacities; dominant, public utility the most common model. • Utilities could become enablers of exchange with the grid, but new pricing models required.

Demand grows in N. America as gas supply sources shift

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.M.

1996-01-01

Growing demand for gas as a power-generation fuel is combining with changing patterns of gas transportation to present North American producers and pipelines with a series of new challenges. Results of a recent Enron study show how natural gas supplies available to US markets continue to shift their center of gravity toward Canadian and western sources. These changes--demand growth paced by electricity generation and supply source relocation--plus extraordinary gas basin price differentials this winter, point to (a) the opportunities for and risks of adding pipeline capacity in the US and Canada, on the one hand, and (b) tough decisions that may need to be made by Gulf of Mexico and Midcontinent area producers, on the other, to compete in an environment of changing economics and infrastructure

Air Quality in Megacities: Lessons Learned from Mexico City Field Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Molina, L. T.

2014-12-01

More than half of the world's population now lives in urban areas because of the opportunities for better jobs, access to city services, cultural and educational activities, and a desire for more stimulating human interaction. At the same time, many of these urban centers are expanding rapidly, giving rise to the phenomenon of megacities. In recent decades air pollution has become not only one of the most important environmental problems of megacities, but also presents serious consequences to human health and ecosystems and economic costs to society. Although the progress to date in combating air pollution problems in developed and some developing world megacities has been impressive, many challenges remain including the need to improve air quality while simultaneously mitigating climate change. This talk will present the results and the lessons learned from field measurements conducted in Mexico City Metropolitan Area - one of the world's largest megacities - over the past decade. While each city has its own unique circumstances, the need for an integrated assessment approach in addressing complex environmental problems is the same. There is no single strategy in solving air pollution problems in megacities; a mix of policy measures based on sound scientific findings will be necessary to improve air quality, protect public health, and mitigate climate change.

Quantifying changes in water use and groundwater availability in a megacity using novel integrated systems modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hyndman, D. W.; Xu, T.; Deines, J. M.; Cao, G.; Nagelkirk, R.; Viña, A.; McConnell, W.; Basso, B.; Kendall, A. D.; Li, S.; Luo, L.; Lupi, F.; Ma, D.; Winkler, J. A.; Yang, W.; Zheng, C.; Liu, J.

2017-08-01

Water sustainability in megacities is a growing challenge with far-reaching effects. Addressing sustainability requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach able to capture interactions among hydrology, population growth, and socioeconomic factors and to reflect changes due to climate variability and land use. We developed a new systems modeling framework to quantify the influence of changes in land use, crop growth, and urbanization on groundwater storage for Beijing, China. This framework was then used to understand and quantify causes of observed decreases in groundwater storage from 1993 to 2006, revealing that the expansion of Beijing's urban areas at the expense of croplands has enhanced recharge while reducing water lost to evapotranspiration, partially ameliorating groundwater declines. The results demonstrate the efficacy of such a systems approach to quantify the impacts of changes in climate and land use on water sustainability for megacities, while providing a quantitative framework to improve mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help address future water challenges.

Oil demand continues to grow in the U.S. and worldwide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tippee, B.; Beck, R.J.

1995-01-01

Rising oil consumption is challenging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries production quota--but not the group's ability to meet demand. In the second half of 1995, the oil market will continue to need more oil from OPEC members than the group claims to be willing to produce with its quota at 24.52 million b/d. If the quota really limited supply, ingredients would be in place for a significant price hike. Growth in a non-OPEC production intensities temptations on OPEC members to cheat on quotas and has become a key factor in the market. OPEC producers have seen that if they don't meet incremental demand at the current price, other producers will. OPEC eventually will have to raise its quota or acknowledge that the artificial production limit lacks meaning. At present, the only real limit to supply is production capacity, which remains in excess relative to demand and which has demonstrated its ability to grow both within and outside of OPEC when prices rise. The paper discusses worldwide trends, pressures on OPEC, world crude prices, US prices, natural gas prices, US energy demand, natural gas use, gas supply, US demand for petroleum products, imports, and inventories

Transportation in megacities. Growing demand and emissions - a comparative analysis of sustainability in developed and developing economies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bose, R K [Tata Energy Research Inst. (India)

1996-12-01

The urban transport problem is fundamentally similar in all large cities. The basic causes are the same and so are many of the consequences, although there are some differences in degree between cities in developed and developing economies. Transport systems in large cities of the developing economies as compared to the developed economies are characterized by: (a) much lower level of motorization of transport and travel requirement, (b) more rapid rates of economic growth, population growth, and the growth in number of motor vehicles, (c) higher population densities, (d) much lower per capita energy consumption and emissions of carbon dioxide, (e) reduced access to capital and to advanced environmental technologies. Despite greater level of vehicle ownership, higher rate of trip generation and increased use of energy on a per capita basis in cities of developed countries, it is the large cities in the developing countries that, in general suffer most from growing traffic congestion, road accidents, energy use and emissions, overcrowding of public transport, and poor conditions for pedestrians and cyclists. (au) 20 refs.

Trends in urbanization and patterns of land use in the Asian mega-cities Jakarta, Bangkok, and Metro Manila

OpenAIRE

Murakami, Akinobu; Zain, Alinda Medrial; Takeuchi, Kazuhiko; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Yokota, Shigehiro

2005-01-01

Asian mega-cities have experienced rapid population growth and continue to grow. Urbanization in those areas is proceeding differently from the patterns of city growth experienced in Western countries. Understanding the characteristics of Asian urbanization will be indispensable for the establishment of a local landscape planning system. In this study, we used the Clark linear exponential model and the Newling quadratic exponential model to compare the spatial distribution of population densi...

Environmental Impact of Megacities - Results from CityZen

Science.gov (United States)

Gauss, M.

2012-04-01

Megacities have increasingly important impacts on air quality and climate change on different spatial scales, owing to their high population densities and concentrated emission sources. The EU FP7 project CityZen (Megacity - Zoom for the Environment) ended in 2011 and was, together with its sister project MEGAPOLI, part of a major research effort within FP7 on megacities in Europe and worldwide. The project mainly focused on air pollution trends in large cities and emission hotspots, climate-chemistry couplings, future projections, and emission mitigation options. Both observational and modeling tools have been extensively used. This paper reviews some of the main results from CityZen regarding present air pollution in and around megacities, future scenarios and mitigation options to reduce air pollution and/or climate change, and the main policy messages from the project. The different observed trends over European and Asian hotspots during the last 10 to 15 years are shown. Results of source attribution of pollutants, which have been measured and calculated in and around the different selected hot spots in CityZen will be discussed. Another important question to be addressed is the extent to which climate change will affect air quality and the effectiveness of air quality legislation. Although projected emission reductions are a major determinate influencing the predictions of future air pollution, model results suggest that climate change has to be taken into account when devising future air quality legislation. This paper will also summarize some important policy messages in terms of ozone, particles and the observational needs that have been put forward as conclusions from the project.

Sulphur demand growing. [Alberta

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1975-01-20

Sulfur markets look better going into 1975 than they have for several years, as North American demand growth is being filled largely by elemental sulfur producers and overseas. Demand is rising as fast as the capacity of Canadian transportation and handling facilities. It will take a long time to make much of a dent in the total Alberta stockpile of 14 million long tons at the end of 1974, with involuntary production from sour gas plants exceeding sales volume since 1972. However, there is some encouragement in the approaching peakout of production combined with a substantial increase in price since the low point of the cycle at the beginning of 1973, and a predicted rise of at least 20% in domestic (North American) sales this year over 1974.

Assessing the Disaster Resilience of Megacities: The Case of Hong Kong

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy Sim

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Many megacities are facing potential threats from various disasters, especially in the face of climate change. However, evaluating the resilience of megacities is not well established in both the academia and practice field. Using Hong Kong, which is a megacity ranked as the city in Asia with the highest risk for natural disasters, as a case study, we demonstrated the effort of assessing the resilience of a megacity. The Sendai Framework Local Urban Indicators Tools that was developed by the United Nation Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR was adopted as the main tool in this study, and a mixed bottom-up participatory and top-down method was utilized in the evaluation process. This is an innovative and participatory approach that is not commonly adopted in assessing the resilience of cities. The study found that Hong Kong is disaster resilient in that it mainstreams disaster risk in its development and that it dedicates sufficient financial resources. However, Hong Kong may improve on its disaster governance and encourage cooperation between the government and society to identify disaster risk and share information, particularly in the face of climate change and calls for more sustainable development.

Automation, Autonomy & Megacities 2025: A Dark Preview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Assante, Michael; Bochman, Andrew

2017-03-01

This paper extrapolates from present trends to describe very plausible – and actually quite likely – future crises playing out in multiple global cities. While predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, much of what occurs in the scenarios that follow is fully possible today and absent a significant course change, probable in the timeframe discussed. The authors want to caveat that we are not commenting on a specific organization or technology deployment. It is not hard to find tech evangelists touting that ubiquitous and highly interconnected digital technology will bring great advances in productivity and efficiency, as well as new capabilities we cannot foresee. This paper attempts to reveal what is possible when these technologies are applied to critical infrastructure applications en masse without adequate security in densely populated cities that by their nature are less resilient than other environments. Megacities need and will deploy these new technologies to keep up with insatiable demand for energy, communications, transportation and other services, but it is important to recognize that they are also made more vulnerable by following this path .

Megacities and large urban agglomerations in the coastal zone: interactions between atmosphere, land, and marine ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

von Glasow, Roland; Jickells, Tim D; Baklanov, Alexander; Carmichael, Gregory R; Church, Tom M; Gallardo, Laura; Hughes, Claire; Kanakidou, Maria; Liss, Peter S; Mee, Laurence; Raine, Robin; Ramachandran, Purvaja; Ramesh, R; Sundseth, Kyrre; Tsunogai, Urumu; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Zhu, Tong

2013-02-01

Megacities are not only important drivers for socio-economic development but also sources of environmental challenges. Many megacities and large urban agglomerations are located in the coastal zone where land, atmosphere, and ocean meet, posing multiple environmental challenges which we consider here. The atmospheric flow around megacities is complicated by urban heat island effects and topographic flows and sea breezes and influences air pollution and human health. The outflow of polluted air over the ocean perturbs biogeochemical processes. Contaminant inputs can damage downstream coastal zone ecosystem function and resources including fisheries, induce harmful algal blooms and feedback to the atmosphere via marine emissions. The scale of influence of megacities in the coastal zone is hundreds to thousands of kilometers in the atmosphere and tens to hundreds of kilometers in the ocean. We list research needs to further our understanding of coastal megacities with the ultimate aim to improve their environmental management.

World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot

2010-01-01

Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

Paradox of Migration in Kolkata: A Megacity in GBM Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Das, S.; Hazra, S.; Ghosh, T.

2015-12-01

Contrary to other coastal cities (Mumbai, Chennai, Bhubaneswar etc.) in India, Kolkata, the largest city of India until 1990, has been showing a persistent trend of out-migration over the last decade. The situation is more paradoxical when compared to Dhaka in Bangladesh, the other coastal city in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta. Exacerbating impacts of Climate Change like accelerated sea level rise, impact of cyclones, rising temperature and high rainfall events and waterlogging, vis-à-vis the density of poor population in slums, Kolkata has been assessed as one of the most vulnerable cities of the world. However, Kolkata has long been a preferred destination for migrants for its port based economy, existence of industrial belt with labour intensive industries. The city and its surrounding districts attracted a massive influx of trans-border migrants when India and Bangladesh gained Independence in 1947 and 1971 respectively. The paper attempts to explore reasons behind the present trend of depopulation in the erstwhile preferred migration destination. This paper distinguishes between 'Kolkata City' (census district) with 4.5 million residents and 'Kolkata Megacity' which encompasses also the peri-urban areas and home to almost 14.1 million people according to Census 2011. Analysing migration as an ongoing research activity under DECCMA project, an overall 'in-migration' pattern can be deciphered in Kolkata 'megacity'. On the contrary, the Kolkata 'city' located right in the heart of the megacity exhibits negative net migration (-5.11%) i.e. high 'out-migration'. Plausible causes can be movement of people from Kolkata 'city' to peri-urban areas and satellite towns (urban to urban migration) probably due to closure of labour intensive industries, comparatively lower land prices, availability of space and accommodation, lower costs of living, development of different modes of commutation and communication. Further growth of population in the Kolkata Megacity

Virtual Reality Models and Digital Engineering Solutions for Technology Transfer

OpenAIRE

Schumann, M; Leye, S; Popov, A

2015-01-01

Effective applied research is based on close collaboration between research and industry, which taking the findings of basic research on customer demands as its starting point, creates a new means for developing and marketing innovative products. What is more, growing demands for innovative and sustainable results of research and development are prompting the examination of global trends such as demographic change, growing megacities, rising energy consumption and increasing traffic and the r...

URBAN DETECTION, DELIMITATION AND MORPHOLOGY: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SELECTIVE "MEGACITIES"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Alhaddad

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Over the last 50 years, the world has faced an impressive growth of urban population. The walled city, close to the outside, an "island"for economic activities and population density within the rural land, has led to the spread of urban life and urban networks in almost all the territory. There was, as said Margalef (1999, "a topological inversion of the landscape". The "urban" has gone from being an island in the ocean of rural land vastness, to represent the totally of the space in which are inserted natural and rural "systems". New phenomena such as the fall of the fordist model of production, the spread of urbanization known as urban sprawl, and the change of scale of the metropolis, covering increasingly large regions, called "megalopolis" (Gottmann, 1961, have characterized the century. However there are no rigorous databases capable of measuring and evaluating the phenomenon of megacities and in general the process of urbanization in the contemporary world. The aim of this paper is to detect, identify and analyze the morphology of the megacities through remote sensing instruments as well as various indicators of landscape. To understand the structure of these heterogeneous landscapes called megacities, land consumption and spatial complexity needs to be quantified accurately. Remote sensing might be helpful in evaluating how the different land covers shape urban megaregions. The morphological landscape analysis allows establishing the analogies and the differences between patterns of cities and studying the symmetry, growth direction, linearity, complexity and compactness of the urban form. The main objective of this paper is to develop a new methodology to detect urbanized land of some megacities around the world (Tokyo, Mexico, Chicago, New York, London, Moscow, Sao Paulo and Shanghai using Landsat 7 images.

Green Spaces as an Indicator of Urban Health: Evaluating Its Changes in 28 Mega-Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Conghong Huang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Urban green spaces can yield considerable health benefits to urban residents. Assessing these health benefits is a key step for managing urban green spaces for human health and wellbeing in cities. In this study, we assessed the change of health benefits generated by urban green spaces in 28 megacities worldwide between 2005 and 2015 by using availability and accessibility as proxy indicators. We first mapped land covers of 28 megacities using 10,823 scenes of Landsat images and a random forest classifier running on Google Earth Engine. We then calculated the availability and accessibility of urban green spaces using the land cover maps and gridded population data. The results showed that the mean availability of urban green spaces in these megacities increased from 27.63% in 2005 to 31.74% in 2015. The mean accessibility of urban green spaces increased from 65.76% in 2005 to 72.86% in 2015. The increased availability and accessibility of urban green spaces in megacities have brought more health benefits to their residents.

Megacity megaquakes—Two near misses

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Ross S.; Toda, Shinji

2013-01-01

Two recent earthquakes left their mark on Santiago de Chile and Tokyo, well beyond the rupture zones, raising questions about the future vulnerability of these and other cities that lie in seismically active regions. Though spared strong shaking, the megacities nevertheless lit up in small quakes, perhaps signaling an abrupt change in the condition for failure on the faults beneath the cities. To detect such changes in earthquake rate requires good seismic monitoring networks; to respond to such hazard increases with civic preparations requires good government.

Development of sewage system for mega-city Karachi

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talat, B.; Ahsan-Ullah

2005-01-01

The growth of mega-cities in recent times has brought to the fore a large number of issues with respect environmental conditions such as development of slum areas, poor localities, solid waste disposal, management of sewage system, lack of open spaces and health facilities. One of the major issues effecting environment proper disposal of sewage and development of sewage system including recycling of sewage water and its use. The heavy pressure of population calls for adequate provision of sewage disposal in the new areas and remodeling of systems in the old areas of the cities to ensure a pollution-free environment. Recycling of sewage and prevention of sewage discharge into natural water channels and the sea has to be undertaken on urgent bases. The paper seeks to outline the present status of sewage system of the city of Karachi, the problems involved and the proposals for management and development of the system compatible with the need and requirement of mega-city population. (author)

Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

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M. J. Santos

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2013-12-01

Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

The Growing Demand for Hospice and Palliative Medicine Physicians: Will the Supply Keep Up?

Science.gov (United States)

Lupu, Dale; Quigley, Leo; Mehfoud, Nicholas; Salsberg, Edward S

2018-04-01

The need for hospice and palliative care is growing rapidly as the population increases and ages and as both hospice and palliative care become more accepted. Hospice and palliative medicine (HPM) is a relatively new physician specialty, currently training 325 new fellows annually. Given the time needed to increase the supply of specialty-trained physicians, it is important to assess future needs to guide planning for future training capacity. We modeled the need for and supply of specialist HPM physicians through the year 2040 to determine whether training capacity should continue growing. To create a benchmark for need, we used a population-based approach to look at the current geographic distribution of the HPM physician supply. To model future supply, we calculated the annual change in current supply by adding newly trained physicians and subtracting physicians leaving the labor force. The current U.S. supply of HPM specialists is 13.35 per 100,000 adults 65 and older. This ratio varies greatly across the country. Using alternate assumptions for future supply and demand, we project that need in 2040 will range from 10,640 to almost 24,000 HPM specialist physicians. Supply will range from 8100 to 19,000. Current training capacity is insufficient to keep up with population growth and demand for services. HPM fellowships would need to grow from the current 325 graduates annually to between 500 and 600 per year by 2030 to assure sufficient physician workforce for hospice and palliative care services given current service provision patterns. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Feng

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2 emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km2 or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO2 emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as  ∼  1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010. Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km and high-resolution (1.3 km simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution fossil fuel CO2 emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO2 emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO2 emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO2 concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO2 fields reflect the coverage of

Sustainable Urban Transport in the Developing World : Beyond Megacities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pojani, D.; Stead, D.

2015-01-01

Megacities have frequently received a disproportionate amount of attention over other sizes of cities in recent discourse on urban sustainability. In this article, the authors argue that a focus on smaller and medium-sized cities is crucial to achieving substantial progress towards more sustainable

MOBILITY, ENVIRONMENT AND SAFETY IN MEGACITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinesh MOHAN

2000-01-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on issues concerning mobility, pollution and safety in megacities of less motorised countries (LMCs using Delhi (India as an example. Issues discussed are: Urban transport and land use patterns, planning, systems management and infrastructure development, fuel quality and alternate fuels, control of car ownership, in-use maintenance and inspection, fuel efficiency and technologies, pedestrian and bicycle environments and road safety. The patterns of traffic and management issues in LMCs are very complex and some of their problems have not been faced by the richer countries in the past. In LMC cities' non-motorised modes of transport and some form of public transport/para-transit already constitute a significant proportion of all trips. It will be difficult to increase this share unless these modes are made much more convenient and safer. Unless people actually perceive that they are not inconvenienced or exposed to greater risks as bicyclists, pedestrians and bus commuters it will be difficult to reduce private vehicle use. Buses and non-motorised modes of transport will remain the backbone of mobility in LMC mega-cities. To control pollution both bus use and non-motorised forms of transport have to be given importance without increasing the rate of road accidents. These issues have to be considered in an overall context where safety and environmental research efforts are not conducted in complete isolation.

World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dargay, Joyce M. [Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Gately, Dermot [Dept. of Economics, New York University, 19W. 4 St., New York, NY 10012 (United States)

2010-10-15

Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

A Comparison of Traffic Operations among Beijing and Several International Megacities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanzhou Yang

2011-12-01

Full Text Available High-Efficient traffic system is very important for economy and society of cities. Previous studies on the traffic comparison mostly took a city as a whole, but ignored the differences among areas inside the city. But in fact, the traffic congestion in different areas with a city is mostly different. Taking typical mega cities like Beijing, London, New York, and Tokyo as objects, this paper makes cross-comparison in the traffic operation and performance based on intelligent algorithm. Transportation infrastructure and travel demand data are discussed and unbalanced transport system is found in Beijing because of the conflict between too much traffic demand and defect road networks. From the aspects of traffic load, operational efficiency and safety, indexes including traffic v/c ratio, average vehicle speed and accident rate are selected to assess the performance of road traffic. It is concluded that road networks of Beijing have the worst performance compared with other three mega-cities and the primary reasons are the inappropriate distribution of utilization rate among the freeways, arterials, and local streets, and the high traffic concentration in urban area. So, several measures are recommended to improve the operation efficiency of traffic in Beijing especially for the green intelligent traffic system. Keywords: Traffic operation; Operational efficiency; Intelligent traffic system (ITS; Traffic load; traffic safety; Intelligent algorithm.

MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Baklanov, A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S.; Mahura, A.; Finardi, S.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Beekmann, M.; Laj, P.; Gomes, L.; Jaffrezo, J.-L.; Borbon, A.; Coll, I.; Gros, V.; Sciare, J.; Kukkonen, J.; Galmarini, S.; Giorgi, F.; Grimmond, S.; Esau, I.; Stohl, A.; Denby, B.; Wagner, T.; Butler, T.; Baltensperger, U.; Builtjes, P.; van den Hout, D.; van der Gon, H. D.; Collins, B.; Schluenzen, H.; Kulmala, M.; Zilitinkevich, S.; Sokhi, R.; Friedrich, R.; Theloke, J.; Kummer, U.; Jalkinen, L.; Halenka, T.; Wiedensholer, A.; Pyle, J.; Rossow, W. B.

2010-11-01

The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes.

Growing an emerging energy workforce: forecasting labour demand and gaining access to emerging energy skills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomsen, V.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the needs of emerging energies sector in terms of growing an emerging energy workforce, forecasting labour demands and gaining access to emerging energy skills. It will require industrial renewal and innovation and not just selling our resources. It will also require educating ourselves to utilise our own finished products. Conservation is a key element in a sustainable energy future. finally, a market for renewable energy has been established in Canada

Megacity Green Infrastructure Converts Water into Billions of Dollars in Ecosystem Services

Science.gov (United States)

Endreny, T. A.; Ulgiati, S.; Santagata, R.

2016-12-01

Cities can invest in green infrastructure to purposefully couple water with urban tree growth, thereby generating ecosystem services and supporting human wellbeing as advocated by United Nations sustainable development initiatives. This research estimates the value of tree-based ecosystem services in order to help megacities assess the benefits relative to the costs of such investments. We inventoried tree cover across the metropolitan area of 10 megacities, in 5 continents and biomes, and developed biophysical scaling equations using i-Tree tools to estimate the tree cover value to reductions in air pollution, stormwater, building energy, and carbon emissions. Metropolitan areas ranged from 1173 to 18,720 sq km (median value 2530 sq km), with median tree cover 21%, and potential additional tree cover 19%, of this area. Median tree cover density was 39 m2/capita (compared with global value of 7800 m2/capita), with lower density in desert and tropical biomes, and higher density in temperate biomes. Using water to support trees led to median benefits of 1.2 billion/yr from reductions in CO, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5, 27 million/yr in avoided stormwater processing by wastewater facilities, 1.2 million/yr in building energy heating and cooling savings, and 20 million/yr in CO2 sequestration. These ecosystem service benefits contributed between 0.1% and 1% of megacity GDP, with a median contribution of 0.3%. Adjustment of benefit value between different city economies considered factors such as purchasing power parity and emergy to money ratio conversions. Green infrastructure costs billions of dollars less than grey infrastructure, and stormwater based grey infrastructure provides fewer benefits. This analysis suggests megacities should invest in tree-based green infrastructure to maintain and increase ecosystem service benefits, manage their water resources, and improve human wellbeing.

How cells grow and divide: mathematical analysis confirms demand for the cell cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Hyun Woong; Choi, M Y

2012-01-01

Eukaryotes usually grow through cell growth and division. How cells grow and divide is essential to life because too small or too large cells cannot function well. In order for an organism to survive even under a condition where cell growth and division processes are independent of each other, cells must have an appropriate growth factor, growth rate and division rate. To determine them, we derive a time evolution equation for the size distribution of cells from the master equation describing changes in the cell size due to growth and in the total number of cells due to division. It is found that long-time behaviors of moments of the size distribution divide the parameter space, consisting of the growth factor and the ratio of the division rate to the growth rate, into infinitely many regions. Examining the properties of each region, we conclude that growth with a small growth factor may be disastrous; this demonstrates the demand for the cell cycle consisting of coordinated growth and division processes. (paper)

Investigating Bidirectional Reflectance in the Los Angeles Megacity Using CLARS Multiangle and Hyperspectral Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Z. C.; Natraj, V.; Pongetti, T.; Shia, R. L.; Sander, S. P.; Yung, Y. L.

2017-12-01

The surface reflectance is a key ingredient in the remote sensing of surface and atmospheric properties from space. The determination of atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations, from reflected sunlight requires accurate knowledge of the contribution from the underlying surface. Over megacity areas, such as the Los Angeles (LA) basin, which are major sources of GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols, the quantification of surface reflectance is challenging due to the associated complex land use types. In this study, we investigate the bidirectional reflectance in the Los Angeles megacity area using multiangle and hyperspectral radiance measurements from the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS). The CLARS facility is located near the top of Mt. Wilson, at an altitude of 1670 m a.s.l., overlooking the LA megacity area with an FTS operating since 2011 to continuously monitor the GHGs and near-surface aerosols in the basin. The CLARS-FTS offers continuous high-resolution spectral measurements in the visible, near infrared and shortwave infrared spectral regions. The CLARS measurements mimic the off-nadir viewing of a low-Earth orbiting instrument, such as GOSAT and OCO-2, but with daily viewing capability. Eight surface targets with different land use types, including urban parks, industrial and residential areas, are selected in this study. The surface reflectance for specific solar incident and viewing angles is calculated by dividing, for non-absorbing spectral channels on clear days (such that gas and aerosol extinction can be ignored), the observed radiance reflected from surface targets by the observed irradiance. The non-linear Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete (RPV) model is used to model the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) by fitting the multiangle and hyperspectral measurements. By evaluating the retrieved RPV parameters, we find that the RPV model provides a good representation of the

Urban air pollution in megacities of the world

Science.gov (United States)

Mage, David; Ozolins, Guntis; Peterson, Peter; Webster, Anthony; Orthofer, Rudi; Vandeweerd, Veerle; Gwynne, Michael

Urban air pollution is a major environmental problem in the developing countries of the world. WHO and UNEP created an air pollution monitoring network as part of the Global Environment Monitoring System. This network now covers over 50 cities in 35 developing and developed countries throughout the world. The analyses of the data reported by the network over the past 15-20 yr indicate that the lessons of the prior experiences in the developed countries (U.S.A., U.K.) have not been learned. A study of air pollution in 20 of the 24 megacities of the world (over 10 million people by year 2000) shows that ambient air pollution concentrations are at levels where serious health effects are reported. The expected rise of population in the next century, mainly in the developing countries with a lack of capital for air pollution control, means that there is a great potential that conditions will worsen in many more cities that will reach megacity status. This paper maps the potential for air pollution that cities will experience in the future unless control strategies are developed and implemented during the next several decades.

Calculation of high-rise construction limitations for non-resident housing fund in megacities

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Iliashenko Oksana

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to topical issues of urban planning in terms of high-rise construction of a non-resident housing stock in relation to megacities. We consider this issue taking into account the limitations of natural, communal and social resources. The problem is especially acute for the overwhelming majority of the state capitals, as well as cities with historical heritage that are of great interest due to the rapid development of tourism and the high mobility of the population in the world. The growth of the population of many states capitals led to the use of high-rise buildings as a non-resident housing stock. However, there are a number of restrictions on the high-rise construction of non-resident housing stock in megacities. The authors formalize the problem of determining the optimal ratio of the volume of urban buildings belonging to the high-rise buildings types and intended for non-residents to a common housing fund. We conduct economic calculations to determine the quantitative indicators. It can be used as the basis for administrative measures aimed at limiting the people flow arriving with the intention of temporarily deploying in megacities.

Calculation of high-rise construction limitations for non-resident housing fund in megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Iliashenko, Oksana; Krasnov, Sergey; Sergeev, Sergey

2018-03-01

The paper is devoted to topical issues of urban planning in terms of high-rise construction of a non-resident housing stock in relation to megacities. We consider this issue taking into account the limitations of natural, communal and social resources. The problem is especially acute for the overwhelming majority of the state capitals, as well as cities with historical heritage that are of great interest due to the rapid development of tourism and the high mobility of the population in the world. The growth of the population of many states capitals led to the use of high-rise buildings as a non-resident housing stock. However, there are a number of restrictions on the high-rise construction of non-resident housing stock in megacities. The authors formalize the problem of determining the optimal ratio of the volume of urban buildings belonging to the high-rise buildings types and intended for non-residents to a common housing fund. We conduct economic calculations to determine the quantitative indicators. It can be used as the basis for administrative measures aimed at limiting the people flow arriving with the intention of temporarily deploying in megacities.

Alternative Governance Structures in Megacities: Threats or Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-01

territories, leaving inhabitants disenfranchised. These gaps are then filled by social entrepreneurs , often ethnic or re- ligious-based civil society...social entrepreneurs , often ethnic or re- ligious-based civil society groups—or even organized crime syndicates—who effectively identify niche needs in...be applied to provide a picture of megacities of increasing importance to U.S. defense planning, including Transparency Inter- national’s Corruption

Enabling technologies for demand management: Transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Roderick A.

2008-01-01

Rising transport demand is likely to be the biggest hurdle to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Globally and nationally, transport is consuming an ever increasing share of our total energy use. Furthermore, the bulk of energy used in transport comes from the burning of petroleum products. This brief paper summarises options arising from the two routes to reduce energy demand in transport: improved and more efficient use of existing and possible new transport modes, and the reduction of transport demand. In both areas, the prospects in the immediate and longer-term future are hedged with difficulties. Automobiles and aircraft have improved considerably in recent decades, but future improvements are likely to be incremental. The introduction of hydrogen as a fuel is appealing, but there are technical problems to be solved. Active reduction of demand for transport will require a decoupling of the link between demand and growth in gross domestic product. Globally, this will be very difficult to achieve. Various modes of public transport exist that are efficient in terms of their energy use per passenger kilometre. But they need large investments to make them more attractive than the automobile. However, population concentration in mega-cities, allied with congestion, will make such innovation essential. Policy measures can be assisted in their implementation by new technology, but will remain politically problematic

A Growing Demand for Monitoring and Evaluation in Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen Porter

2013-09-01

Full Text Available When decision-makers want to use evidence from monitoring and evaluation (M&E systems to assist them in making choices, there is a demand for M&E. When there is great capacity to supply M&E information, but low capacity to demand quality evidence, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. In this context, as Picciotto (2009 observed, ‘monitoring masquerades as evaluation’. This article applies this observation, using six case studies of African M&E systems, by asking: What evidence is there that African governments are developing stronger endogenous demand for evidence generated from M&E systems? The argument presented here is that demand for evidence is increasing, leading to further development of M&E systems, with monitoring being dominant. As part of this dominance there are attempts to align monitoring systems to emerging local demand, whilst donor demands are still important in several countries. There is also evidence of increasing demand through government-led evaluation systems in South Africa, Uganda and Benin. One of the main issues that this article notes is that the M&E systems are not yet conceptualised within a reform effort to introduce a comprehensive results-based orientation to the public services of these countries. Results concepts are not yet consistently applied throughout the M&E systems in the case countries. In addition, the results-based notions that are applied appear to be generating perverse incentives that reinforce upward compliance and contrôle to the detriment of more developmental uses of M&E evidence.

Gas-export potential will grow until domestic economies hike local demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.; Stram, B.

1993-01-01

Prospects appear good for near-term growth of exportable natural-gas supplies for some member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). These conclusions are a result of Enron Corp.'s recent investigations in the C.I.S. and other former Soviet republics. They are based on data obtained in cooperation with Vinigaz, the research arm of the Russian state gas concern Gazprom, and from various other research and consulting groups. These studies indicate that gas-export potential will grow as local demand for gas shrinks in the C.I.S. (as the energy needs of the individual republics decline during the period of economic transition) and while the C.I.S.-area countries continue to require foreign currency to help fund redevelopment and reduce debt. This concluding of two articles reviews the economic outlook for outside investment in the oil, gas, and gas-liquids infrastructure and the role of natural-gas supply and price in the development of domestic and export markets

The Space-Borne SBAS-DInSAR Technique as a Supporting Tool for Sustainable Urban Policies: The Case of Istanbul Megacity, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabiana Calò

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In today’s urbanizing world, home of 28 megacities, there is a growing need for tools to assess urban policies and support the design and implementation of effective development strategies. Unsustainable practices of urbanization bring major implications for land and environment, and cause a dramatic increase of urban vulnerability to natural hazards. In Istanbul megacity, disaster risk reduction represents a challenging issue for urban managers. In this paper, we show the relevance of the space-borne Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR technique as a tool for supporting risk management, and thus contributing to achieve the urban sustainability. To this aim, we use a dataset of high resolution SAR images collected by the TerraSAR-X satellite that have been processed through the advanced (multi-temporal Small BAseline Subset (SBAS—DInSAR technique, thus producing spatially-dense deformation velocity maps and associated time-series. Results allow to depict an up-to-date picture of surface deformations occurring in Istanbul, and thus to identify urban areas subject to potential risk. The joint analysis of remotely sensed measurements and ancillary data (geological and urban development information provides an opportunity for city planners and land professionals to discuss on the mutual relationship between urban development policies and natural/man-made hazards.

Relevance of the land use changes related to a megacity development in a Colombian river basin

Science.gov (United States)

García-Arias, Alicia; Romero Hernández, Claudia Patricia; Francés, Félix

2017-04-01

A megacity development is a main driving force for land uses changes. Population in these megacities usually rise depending on some or all of the natural resources related to the occupied area and, among them, water is a pivotal requirement. On the other hand, land use changes determine the catchment hydrology and, in consequence, its management. The better knowledge on land uses cover distribution and characteristics, the higher capabilities to increase the accuracy of hydrological predictions and the efficiency of water management. This study aims to describe the land uses changes occurred during the recent expansion of the megacity of Bogotá (Colombia) and to understand the expected changes. In addition, we propose the base for the consideration of this land use changes in the TETIS distributed hydrological modelling approach. The discussion focus on the necessity of considering this kind of scenarios in hydrological modelling for a responsible management of the water resources.

Mental disorders in megacities: findings from the Sao Paulo megacity mental health survey, Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Helena Andrade

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: World population growth is projected to be concentrated in megacities, with increases in social inequality and urbanization-associated stress. São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA provides a forewarning of the burden of mental disorders in urban settings in developing world. The aim of this study is to estimate prevalence, severity, and treatment of recently active DSM-IV mental disorders. We examined socio-demographic correlates, aspects of urban living such as internal migration, exposure to violence, and neighborhood-level social deprivation with 12-month mental disorders. METHODS AND RESULTS: A representative cross-sectional household sample of 5,037 adults was interviewed face-to-face using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI, to generate diagnoses of DSM-IV mental disorders within 12 months of interview, disorder severity, and treatment. Administrative data on neighborhood social deprivation were gathered. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate individual and contextual correlates of disorders, severity, and treatment. Around thirty percent of respondents reported a 12-month disorder, with an even distribution across severity levels. Anxiety disorders were the most common disorders (affecting 19.9%, followed by mood (11%, impulse-control (4.3%, and substance use (3.6% disorders. Exposure to crime was associated with all four types of disorder. Migrants had low prevalence of all four types compared to stable residents. High urbanicity was associated with impulse-control disorders and high social deprivation with substance use disorders. Vulnerable subgroups were observed: women and migrant men living in most deprived areas. Only one-third of serious cases had received treatment in the previous year. DISCUSSION: Adults living in São Paulo megacity had prevalence of mental disorders at greater levels than similar surveys conducted in other areas of the world. Integration of mental health promotion

In situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris megacity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beekmann, M.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Drewnick, F.; Sciare, J.; Pandis, S.N.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Crippa, M.; Freutel, F.; Poulain, L.; Ghersi, V.; Rodriguez, E.; Beirle, S.; Zotter, P.; Weiden-Reinmüller, S.L. von der; Bressi, M.; Fountoukis, C.; Petetin, H.; Szidat, S.; Schneider, J.; Rosso, A.; El Haddad, I.; Megaritis, A.; Zhang, Q.J.; Michoud, V.; Slowik, J.G.; Moukhtar, S.; Kolmonen, P.; Stohl, A.; Eckhardt, S.; Borbon, A.; Gros, V.; Marchand, N.; Jaffrezo, J.L.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Borrmann, S.; Lawrence, M.; Baklanov, A.; Baltensperger, U.

2015-01-01

A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70 % of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions.

Meeting India's growing energy demand with nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matzie, R.

2009-01-01

Full text: With world energy demand expected to nearly double by 2030, the need for safe, reliable and clean energy is imperative. In India, energy demand has outpaced the increase in energy production, with the country experiencing as much as a 12 percent gap between peak demand and availability. To meet demand, nuclear power is the ideal solution for providing baseload electricity, and as much as 40-60 GWe of nuclear capacity will need to be added throughout the county over the next 20 years. This presentation will describe the benefits of nuclear power compared to other energy sources, provide an overview of new nuclear power plant construction projects worldwide, and explain the benefits and advantages of the Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant. The presentation will also outline the steps that Westinghouse is taking to help facilitate new nuclear construction in India, and how the company's 'Buy Where We Build' approach to supply chain management will positively impact the Indian economy through continued in-country supplier agreements, job creation, and the exporting of materials and components to support AP1000 projects outside of India. Finally, the presentation will show that the experience Westinghouse is gaining in constructing AP1000 plants in both China and the United States will help ensure the success of projects in India

In situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Beekmann, M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Drewnick, F.; Sciare, J.; Pandis, S. N.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Crippa, M.; Freutel, F.; Poulain, L.; Ghersi, V.; Rodriguez, E.; Beirle, S.; Zotter, P.; von der Weiden-Reinmüller, S.-L.; Bressi, M.; Fountoukis, C.; Petetin, H.; Szidat, S.; Schneider, J.; Rosso, A.; El Haddad, I.; Megaritis, A.; Zhang, Q. J.; Michoud, V.; Slowik, J. G.; Moukhtar, S.; Kolmonen, P.; Stohl, A.; Eckhardt, S.; Borbon, A.; Gros, V.; Marchand, N.; Jaffrezo, J. L.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Borrmann, S.; Lawrence, M.; Baklanov, A.; Baltensperger, U.

2015-08-01

A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70 % of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in situ measurements during short intensive and longer-term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE chemistry transport models. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions constituted less than 20 % in winter and 40 % in summer of carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly small for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e., from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only being partially responsible for its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

In-situ, satellite measurement and model evidence for a~dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris Megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Beekmann, M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Drewnick, F.; Sciare, J.; Pandis, S. N.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Crippa, M.; Freutel, F.; Poulain, L.; Ghersi, V.; Rodriguez, E.; Beirle, S.; Zotter, P.; von der Weiden-Reinmüller, S.-L.; Bressi, M.; Fountoukis, C.; Petetin, H.; Szidat, S.; Schneider, J.; Rosso, A.; El Haddad, I.; Megaritis, A.; Zhang, Q. J.; Michoud, V.; Slowik, J. G.; Moukhtar, S.; Kolmonen, P.; Stohl, A.; Eckhardt, S.; Borbon, A.; Gros, V.; Marchand, N.; Jaffrezo, J. L.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Borrmann, S.; Lawrence, M.; Baklanov, A.; Baltensperger, U.

2015-03-01

A detailed characterization of air quality in Paris (France), a megacity of more than 10 million inhabitants, during two one month intensive campaigns and from additional one year observations, revealed that about 70% of the fine particulate matter (PM) at urban background is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in-situ measurements during short intensive and longer term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by a comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions contributed less than 20% in winter and 40% in summer to carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly little for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e. from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only controlling part of its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

Air-quality measurements in mega-cities: Focus on gaseous organic and particulate pollutants and comparison between two contrasted cities, Paris and Beijing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gros, V.; Sciare, J.; Yu, T.

2007-01-01

The rapid and important development of large urban areas ('mega-cities'), especially in developing countries, causes and will cause serious air-quality problems. Pollutant measurements in these cities help to characterize the chemical nature and the quantity of these pollutants and to constrain air-quality models. This paper focuses on measurements of volatile organic compounds and aerosols that have an important impact on air quality. We present a brief review on existing measurements and experimental strategies in mega-cities and then we show results from recent measurement campaigns that took place in two contrasted mega-cities: Paris and Beijing. (authors)

Mental Disorders in Megacities: Findings from the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Laura Helena; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Andreoni, Solange; Silveira, Camila Magalhães; Alexandrino-Silva, Clovis; Siu, Erica Rosanna; Nishimura, Raphael; Anthony, James C.; Gattaz, Wagner Farid; Kessler, Ronald C.; Viana, Maria Carmen

2012-01-01

Background World population growth is projected to be concentrated in megacities, with increases in social inequality and urbanization-associated stress. São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) provides a forewarning of the burden of mental disorders in urban settings in developing world. The aim of this study is to estimate prevalence, severity, and treatment of recently active DSM-IV mental disorders. We examined socio-demographic correlates, aspects of urban living such as internal migration, exposure to violence, and neighborhood-level social deprivation with 12-month mental disorders. Methods and Results A representative cross-sectional household sample of 5,037 adults was interviewed face-to-face using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), to generate diagnoses of DSM-IV mental disorders within 12 months of interview, disorder severity, and treatment. Administrative data on neighborhood social deprivation were gathered. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate individual and contextual correlates of disorders, severity, and treatment. Around thirty percent of respondents reported a 12-month disorder, with an even distribution across severity levels. Anxiety disorders were the most common disorders (affecting 19.9%), followed by mood (11%), impulse-control (4.3%), and substance use (3.6%) disorders. Exposure to crime was associated with all four types of disorder. Migrants had low prevalence of all four types compared to stable residents. High urbanicity was associated with impulse-control disorders and high social deprivation with substance use disorders. Vulnerable subgroups were observed: women and migrant men living in most deprived areas. Only one-third of serious cases had received treatment in the previous year. Discussion Adults living in São Paulo megacity had prevalence of mental disorders at greater levels than similar surveys conducted in other areas of the world. Integration of mental health promotion and care into the

Megacities and Large Urban Complexes - WMO Role in Addressing Challenges and Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Terblanche, Deon; Jalkanen, Liisa

2013-04-01

Megacities and Large Urban Complexes - WMO Role in Addressing Challenges and Opportunities Deon E. Terblanche and Liisa Jalkanen dterblanche@wmo.int ljalkanen@wmo.int World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland The 21st Century could amongst others, become known as the century in which our species has evolved from Homo sapiens to Homo urbanus. By now the urban population has surpassed the rural population and the rate of urbanization will continue at such a pace that by 2050 urban dwellers could outnumber their rural counterpart by more than two to one. Most of this growth in urban population will occur in developing countries and along coastal areas. Urbanization is to a large extent the outcome of humans seeking a better life through improved opportunities presented by high-density communities. Megacities and large urban complexes provide more job opportunities and social structures, better transport and communication links and a relative abundance of physical goods and services when compared to most rural areas. Unfortunately these urban complexes also present numerous social and environmental challenges. Urban areas differ from their surroundings by morphology, population density, and with high concentration of industrial activities, energy consumption and transport. They also pose unique challenges to atmospheric modelling and monitoring and create a multi-disciplinary spectrum of potential threats, including air pollution, which need to be addressed in an integrated way. These areas are also vulnerable to the changing climate and its implications to sea-level and extreme events, air quality and related health impacts. Many urban activities are significantly impacted by weather events that would not be considered to be of high impact in less densely populated areas. For instance, moderate precipitation events can cause flooding and landslides as modified urban catchments generally have higher run-off to rainfall ratios than their more pristine rural

How to make mega-cities energy efficient?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aoki, Hitoshi; Aoki, Yoshitaka

2010-09-15

Tokyo is a Megalopolis with 40 million+ population. It has an energy efficient profile due to its uniqueness as extensive mass rail transit networks, high density and compact urban formation, compact space oriented life style. The other feature is extensive use of electric heat pumps (EHP), which entails low carbon city profile. Further possibility is prepared with water thermal energy utilization, which is widely available also through EHP particularly in Tokyo central districts, which could make Tokyo one of the lowest carbon cities in the world. Emerging mega-cities are expected to learn from Tokyo's success and not from western conventional models.

New Approaches for Estimating Motor Vehicle Emissions in Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Marr, L. C.; Thornhill, D. A.; Herndon, S. C.; Onasch, T. B.; Wood, E. C.; Kolb, C. E.; Knighton, W. B.; Mazzoleni, C.; Zavala, M. A.; Molina, L. T.

2007-12-01

The rapid proliferation of megacities and their air quality problems is producing unprecedented air pollution health risks and management challenges. Quantifying motor vehicle emissions in the developing world's megacities, where vehicle ownership is skyrocketing, is critical for evaluating the cities' impacts on the atmosphere at urban, regional, and global scales. The main goal of this research is to quantify gasoline- and diesel-powered motor vehicle emissions within the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). We apply positive matrix factorization to fast measurements of gaseous and particulate pollutants made by the Aerodyne Mobile Laboratory as it drove throughout the MCMA in 2006. We consider carbon dioxide; carbon monoxide; volatile organic compounds including benzene and formaldehyde; nitrogen oxides; ammonia; fine particulate matter; particulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; and black carbon. Analysis of the video record confirms the apportionment of emissions to different engine types. From the derived source profiles, we calculate fuel-based fleet-average emission factors and then estimate the total motor vehicle emission inventory. The advantages of this method are that it can capture a representative sample of vehicles in a variety of on-road driving conditions and can separate emissions from gasoline versus diesel engines. The results of this research can be used to help assess the accuracy of emission inventories and to guide the development of strategies for reducing vehicle emissions.

Statistical exploration of dataset examining key indicators influencing housing and urban infrastructure investments in megacities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adedeji O. Afolabi

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Lagos, by the UN standards, has attained the megacity status, with the attendant challenges of living up to that titanic position; regrettably it struggles with its present stock of housing and infrastructural facilities to match its new status. Based on a survey of construction professionals’ perception residing within the state, a questionnaire instrument was used to gather the dataset. The statistical exploration contains dataset on the state of housing and urban infrastructural deficit, key indicators spurring the investment by government to upturn the deficit and improvement mechanisms to tackle the infrastructural dearth. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics were used to present the dataset. The dataset when analyzed can be useful for policy makers, local and international governments, world funding bodies, researchers and infrastructural investors. Keywords: Construction, Housing, Megacities, Population, Urban infrastructures

Sustainable Urban Transport in the Developing World: Beyond Megacities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorina Pojani

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Megacities have frequently received a disproportionate amount of attention over other sizes of cities in recent discourse on urban sustainability. In this article, the authors argue that a focus on smaller and medium-sized cities is crucial to achieving substantial progress towards more sustainable urban development, not only because they are home to at least a quarter of the world’s population but because they also offer great potential for sustainable transformations. In principle, their size allows for flexibility in terms of urban expansion, adoption of “green” travel modes, and environmental protection. At the same time, smaller and medium-sized cities often have fewer resources to implement new transport measures and can be more vulnerable to fluctuations in the world economy. This article critically reviews the potential role and impact of nine commonly considered options for sustainable urban transport in cities in developing countries: (1 road infrastructure; (2 rail-based public transport; (3 road-based public transport; (4 support for non-motorized travel modes; (5 technological solutions; (6 awareness-raising campaigns; (7 pricing mechanisms; (8 vehicle access restrictions; and (9 control of land-uses. Drawing on international research and examples of policies to reduce the environmental impacts of transport in urban areas, this article identifies some key lessons for sustainable urban transport in smaller and medium-sized cities in developing countries. These lessons are certainly not always identical to those for megacities in the global south.

Managing the growing energy demand - The case of Egypt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El-Kholy, Hosni; Faried, Ragy

2010-09-15

The electric energy consumption rate in Egypt has an average increase of 7% per year through the last three decades. In order to satisfy the ever increasing energy demand, several actions were, and have to be taken. These actions have to be carried out in parallel. The one having the greatest effect is the measures carried out for energy conservation and loss reduction. Diversifying the energy source such as utilization of Renewable Energy technologies can contribute to satisfying the demand and extending the hydro-carbon reserves life. Regional integration of electrical networks will save expenditures used to build additional power plants.

GHG monitoring over Paris megacity and Orléans forest

Science.gov (United States)

Te, Y. V.; Jeseck, P.; Zanon, T.; Boursier, C.; Janssen, C.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.; Lac, C.; Dieudonné, E.; Lopez, M.; Schmidt, M.; Xueref-remy, I. C.

2012-12-01

In a growing world with more than 7 billion inhabitants and big emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India, emissions of anthropogenic pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are increasing continuously. Their monitoring and control in megacities have become a major challenge for scientists and public health authorities in environmental research area. The ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (QualAir FTS[a], model IFS 125HR) of the QualAir platform located in downtown Paris at University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), is a scientific research instrument dedicated to the survey of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air quality. Equipped with a sun-tracker, the remote sensing QualAir FTS relies on solar infrared absorption for monitoring trace gas concentrations and their variability in the Ile-de-France region[b]. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs, especially CO2, CH4 and N2O, are retrieved by the radiative transfer model PROFFIT[c]. Because Paris is the third largest European megacity, the QualAir FTS can provide new and complementary measurements as compared to existing ground-based FTS network stations (NDACC and TCCON) located in unpolluted environments, such as the TCCON-Orléans station[d] situated in the forest of Orléans (100 km south of Paris). In the effort to integrate QualAir FTS into the TCCON network, simultaneous FTS measurements of GHGs at Paris and Orléans have been performed. We will emphasize on comparisons of CO2 from these two sites. Our comparison will be completed by high-resolved direct CO2 modeling outputs from the Meso-NH model, and ground in situ measurements at different sites (Orléans/Trainou, Paris/Jussieu, Paris/Eiffel Tower). Parts of the data were acquired in the framework of the French CO2-MEGAPARIS project[e, f], whose main goal is to quantify CO2 emissions from the Paris area. The present data intercomparison will help to reduce uncertainties in carbon cycle models and to better characterize regional GHG fluxes

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Saez, Javier; King, Aaron A.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes

2017-10-01

Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.

Diversity and human perceptions of bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) in Southeast Asian megacities.

Science.gov (United States)

Sing, Kong-Wah; Wang, Wen-Zhi; Wan, Tao; Lee, Ping-Shin; Li, Zong-Xu; Chen, Xing; Wang, Yun-Yu; Wilson, John-James

2016-10-01

Urbanization requires the conversion of natural land cover to cover with human-constructed elements and is considered a major threat to biodiversity. Bee populations, globally, are under threat; however, the effect of rapid urban expansion in Southeast Asia on bee diversity has not been investigated. Given the pressing issues of bee conservation and urbanization in Southeast Asia, coupled with complex factors surrounding human-bee coexistence, we investigated bee diversity and human perceptions of bees in four megacities. We sampled bees and conducted questionnaires at three different site types in each megacity: a botanical garden, central business district, and peripheral suburban areas. Overall, the mean species richness and abundance of bees were significantly higher in peripheral suburban areas than central business districts; however, there were no significant differences in the mean species richness and abundance between botanical gardens and peripheral suburban areas or botanical gardens and central business districts. Urban residents were unlikely to have seen bees but agreed that bees have a right to exist in their natural environment. Residents who did notice and interact with bees, even though being stung, were more likely to have positive opinions towards the presence of bees in cities.

Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

2007-01-01

Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

The development and work procedures to super speed network for the growing demands for the network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nosaki, Nobuhisa; Aoki, Kazuhisa

2001-01-01

Following the recently growing demands for the network, the modification of Local Area Network (LAN) and Wide Area Network (WAN) to super speed network have been reviewed in the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC). Though the modification of the LAN to super speed network is being developed this year in Heisei 13 fiscal year, it of the WAN was developed in Heisei 12 fiscal year. In spite of various issues, technical reviews and etc., there are a lot of benefits and merit for the super speed network of the WAN and though the modification of it and reduction of the running cost are contradictory to each other, both of those have been achieved in the JNC. This paper introduces the development and work procedures for the WAN. (author)

Demand response in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

2004-11-01

Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

Managing future air quality in megacities: A case study for Delhi

Science.gov (United States)

Amann, Markus; Purohit, Pallav; Bhanarkar, Anil D.; Bertok, Imrich; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Cofala, Janusz; Heyes, Chris; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Klimont, Zbigniew; Liu, Jun; Majumdar, Dipanjali; Nguyen, Binh; Rafaj, Peter; Rao, Padma S.; Sander, Robert; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Srivastava, Anjali; Vardhan, B. Harsh

2017-07-01

Megacities in Asia rank high in air pollution at the global scale. In many cities, ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have been exceeding both the WHO interim targets as well as respective national air quality standards. This paper presents a systems analytical perspective on management options that could efficiently improve air quality at the urban scale, having Delhi as a case study. We employ the newly developed GAINS-City policy analysis framework, consisting of a bottom up emission calculation combined with atmospheric chemistry-transport calculation, to derive innovative insights into the current sources of pollution and their impacts on ambient PM2.5, both from emissions of primary PM as well as precursors of secondary inorganic and organic aerosols. We outline the likely future development of these sources, quantify the related ambient PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts, and explore potential policy interventions that could effectively reduce environmental pollution and resulting health impacts in the coming years. The analysis demonstrates that effective improvement of Delhi's air quality requires collaboration with neighboring States and must involve sources that are less relevant in industrialized countries. At the same time, many of the policy interventions will have multiple co-benefits on development targets in Delhi and its neighboring States. Outcomes of this study, as well as the modelling tools used herein, are applicable to other urban areas and fast growing metropolitan zones in the emerging Asian regions.

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution Control Measures for Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, R.; Theloke, J.; Denier-van-der-Gon, H.; Kugler, U.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Roos, J.; Torras, S.

2012-04-01

Air pollution in large cities is still a matter of concern. Especially the concentration of fine particles (PM10 and PM2.5) is largest in large cities leading to severe health impacts. Furthermore the PM10 thresholds of the EU Air Quality Directive are frequently exceeded. Thus the question arises, whether the initiated policies and measures for mitigating air pollution are sufficient to meet the air quality targets and - if not - which efficient further pollution mitigation measures exist. These questions have been addressed in the EU research project MEGAPOLI for the four European megacities respectively agglomerations London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr area and Po valley. Firstly, a reference scenario of future activities and emissions has been compiled for the megacities for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 for all relevant air pollutants (CO, NH3, NMVOC, NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and SO2) and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O). The reference scenario takes into account as well population changes as technical progress and economic growth. As pollution flowing in from outside the city is about as important as pollution caused by emissions in the city, the analysis covers the whole of Europe and not only the city area. Emissions are then transformed into concentrations using atmospheric models. The higher concentrations in cities were estimated with a newly developed 'urban increment' model. Results show, that in the megacities the limits of the Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC) will be exceeded. Thus additional efforts are necessary to reduce emissions further. Thus, a number of further measures (not implemented in current legislation) were selected and assessed. These included mitigation options for road transport, other mobile sources, large combustion plants, small and medium combustion plants and industry. For each measure and in addition for various bundles of measures a cost-benefit analysis has been carried out. Benefits (avoided health risks and climate change risks) have

CO Seasonal Variability and Trend over Paris Megacity Using Ground-Based QualAir FTS and Satellite IASI-MetOp Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Te, Yao; Jeseck, Pascal; Hadji-Lazaro, Juliette

2012-11-01

In a growing world with more than 7 billion inhabitants and big emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India, emissions of anthropogenic pollutants are increasing continuously. Monitoring and control of atmospheric pollutants in megacities have become a major challenge for scientists and public health authorities in environmental research area. The QualAir platform at University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), is an innovating experimental research platform dedicated to survey urban atmospheric pollution and air quality. A Bruker Optics IFS 125HR Fourier transform spectrometer belonged to the Laboratoire de Physique Moléculaire pour l'Atmosphère et l'Astrophysique (LPMAA), was adapted for ground-based atmospheric measurements. As one of the major instruments of the QualAir platform, this ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (QualAir FTS) analyses the composition of the urban atmosphere of Paris, which is the third largest European megacity. The continuous monitoring of atmospheric pollutants is essential to improve the understanding of urban air pollution processes. Associated with a sun-tracker, the QualAir remote sensing FTS operates in solar infrared absorption and enables to monitor many trace gases, and to follow up their variability in the Ile-de-France region. Concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are retrieved by the radiative transfer model PROFFIT. These ground-based remote sensing measurements are compared to ground in-situ measurements and to satellite data from IASI-MetOp (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer). The remote sensing total column of the carbon monoxide (CO) obtained from January 2009 to June 2012, has a seasonal variability with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. While, after 2008, the mean CO level is quite stable (no significant decrease as before 2008).

Assessment of on-road transportation demand and CO2 emissions for determination of air quality impacts from the Megacity of São Paulo

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Martinez, P. J.; Miranda, R. M.; Andrade, M. D. F.

2017-12-01

In this manuscript we assess the capability of using mobility surveys and a high-scale assignment and emission model to study climate change and air quality impacts related to on-road transportation in the Megacity of São Paulo (MSP). Initially, we estimate CO2 emissions of light and heavy vehicles (LVs and HVs) at a spatial scale of 500m and temporal scale of an hour, using transport demand modeling. The estimates are based on origin and destination trip pairs and the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These estimates, performed for the years 2007 and 2012, depend also on intermediate variables as dilution rates (D) and surface particulate-matter concentrations (PM). Secondly, we assess the changes in CO2 vehicle emissions from the MRSP over the period 2007-2012 (4% year-1). Consequently, CO2 emission inventories merge trip-based surveys, traffic assignments and road network database with air pollution monitoring data. Despite the difference of the methodologies, we use a road link bottom up vehicle activity based approach, the assessed emissions agree with the State's Emission Inventory. This paper shows that the CO2 emissions from LDVs and HDVs in the MSP in 2007 and 2012 were 8,477 and 10,075 tCeq day-1 (58% LVs and 42% HVs), respectively. CO2 emissions from vehicles show spatial patterns consistent with passenger and freight transport trips and road network assignments. Temporal profiles (diurnal, weekly and monthly) were estimated using traffic counts and congestion surrogates. The profiles were compared with average road-site (Western of MSP) and background (Jaraguá Peak) CO2 measurements available for 2014. On-road measurements showed one peak associated to the morning peak hour of vehicles (437±45 ppm) and another night peak (435±49 ppm) related to the low PBL (313 m) and D (329 m2 h-1). From on-road measurements, background values (414±2 ppm) were subtracted to estimate excess CO2 (12±8 ppm) directly attributed to vehicles. The inventory

Survey of Models on Demand, Customer Base-Line and Demand Response and Their Relationships in the Power Market

OpenAIRE

Heshmati, Almas

2012-01-01

The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...

Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.; Daioglou, Vasileios; Braakhekke, M.C.; van Vuuren, Detlef

Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for

Mega-city and great earthquake distributions: the search of basic links.

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Boris; Sasorova, Elena; Domanski, Andrej

2013-04-01

The ever-increasing population density in large metropolitan cities near major active faults (e.g. Tokyo, Lisbon, San-Francisco, et al.) and recent catastrophic earthquakes in Japan, Indonesia and Haiti (loss of life more 500000), highlight the need for searching of causal relationships between distributions of earthquake epicenters and mega-cities at the Earth [1]. The latitudinal distribution of mega-cities calculated with using Internet data base, discovers a curious peculiarity: the density of large city numbers, related to 10-degree latitude interval, demonstrates two maximums in middle latitudes (±30-40°) on both sides of the equator. These maximums are separated by clean local minimum near equator, and such objects (mega-cities) are practically absent in the high latitudes. In the last two decades, it was shown [2, 3, 4] that a seismic activity of the Earth is described by the similar bimodal latitudinal distribution. The similarity between bimodal distributions for geophysical phenomena and mega-city locations attracts common attention. The peak values in the both distributions (near ±35°) correspond to location of well-known "critical latitudes" at the planet. These latitudes were determined [5], as the lines of intersection of a sphere and a spheroid of equal volume (±35°15'52″). Increasing of the angular velocity of a celestial body rotation leads to growth of oblateness of planet, and vice versa, the oblateness is decreasing with reducing of velocity of rotation. So, well-known effect of the Earth rotation instability leads to small pulsations of the geoid. In the critical latitudes, the geoid radius-vector is equal to the radius of sphere. The zones of near critical latitudes are characterized by high density of faults in the Earth crust and manifestation of some geological peculiarities (hot spot distribution, large ore deposit distribution, et al.). The active faults existence has led to an emanation of depth fluids, which created the good

Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikhail Varentsov

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Urbanization leads to distinct meteorological features of urban environments, and one the best-known is the urban heat island (UHI effect. For megacities, these features become mesoscale phenomena (scale ≥ 10 km that are amplified by the tropospheric feedbacks, and have substantial implications on human well-being. For the first time, a three-dimensional statistical description of the megacity-induced meteorological effects extending towards the lower troposphere for summer is acquired on a quasi-climatological timescale (a decade based on high-resolution (1 km simulations for Moscow with the COSMO-CLM model with and without its urban canopy model TERRA_URB. Our results confirm the features from previous observational and modeling studies, including the UHI itself, the cooling effect above established by the cross-over effect, the urban dry/moist islands and the urban breeze circulation. Particularly, the UHI shows a strong diurnal variation in terms of intensity and vertical extent between daytime (≈0.5 K/≈1.5 km and nighttime (>3 K/≈150 m. We have discovered a systematic veering in the downwind shift of the UHI spatial pattern established by the Coriolis effect, and an enhanced stable stratification of the rural surroundings established by the urban plumes further downwind. Finally, extending the analysis to multiple summers demonstrates a substantial increase in summer precipitation (up to +25% over the city center and its leeward side. These urban-caused mesoclimatic effects need to be taken into account in weather and climate services, including the design of future megacities.

Examining demand response, renewable energy and efficiencies to meet growing electricity needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliot, N.; Eldridge, M.; Shipley, A.M.; Laitner, J.S.; Nadel, S.; Silverstein, A.; Hedman, B.; Sloan, M.

2007-01-01

While Texas has already taken steps to improve its renewable energy portfolio (RPS), and its energy efficiency improvement program (EEIP), the level of savings that utilities can achieve through the EEIP can be greatly increased. This report estimated the size of energy efficiency and renewable energy resources in Texas, and suggested a range of policy options that might be adopted to further extend EEIP. Current forecasts suggest that peak demand in Texas will increase by 2.3 per cent annually from 2007-2012, a level of growth which is threatening the state's ability to maintain grid reliability at reasonable cost. Almost 70 per cent of installed generating capacity is fuelled by natural gas in Texas. Recent polling has suggested that over 70 per cent of Texans are willing support increased spending on energy efficiency. Demand response measures that may be implemented in the state include incentive-based programs that pay users to reduce their electricity consumption during specific times and pricing programs, where customers are given a price signal and are expected to moderate their electricity usage. By 2023, the widespread availability of time-varying retail electric rates and complementary communications and control methods will permanently change the nature of electricity demand in the state. At present, the integrated utilities in Texas offer a variety of direct load control and time-of-use, curtailable, and interruptible rates. However, with the advent of retail competition now available as a result of the structural unbundling of investor-owned utilities, there is less demand response available in Texas. It was concluded that energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy resources can meet the increasing demand for electricity in Texas over the next 15 years. 4 figs

Analysis of water supply and demand in high mountain cities of Bolivia under growing population and changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kinouchi, T.; Mendoza, J.; Asaoka, Y.; Fuchs, P.

2017-12-01

Water resources in La Paz and El Alto, high mountain capital cities of Bolivia, strongly depend on the surface and subsurface runoff from partially glacierized catchments located in the Cordillera Real, Andes. Due to growing population and changing climate, the balance between water supply from the source catchments and demand for drinking, agriculture, industry and hydropower has become precarious in recent years as evidenced by a serious drought during the 2015-2016 El Nino event. To predict the long-term availability of water resources under changing climate, we developed a semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model that considers various runoff pathways from partially glacierized high-altitude catchments. Two GCM projections (MRI-AGCM and INGV-ECHAM4) were used for the prediction with bias corrected by reanalysis data (ERA-INTERIM) and downscaled to target areas using data monitored at several weather stations. The model was applied to three catchments from which current water resources are supplied and eight additional catchments that will be potentially effective in compensating reduced runoff from the current water resource areas. For predicting the future water demand, a cohort-component method was used for the projection of size and composition of population change, considering natural and social change (birth, death and transfer). As a result, total population is expected to increase from 1.6 million in 2012 to 2.0 million in 2036. The water demand was predicted for given unit water consumption, non-revenue water rate (NWR), and sectorial percentage of water consumption for domestic, industrial and commercial purposes. The results of hydrological simulations and the analysis of water demand indicated that water supply and demand are barely balanced in recent years, while the total runoff from current water resource areas will continue to decrease and unprecedented water shortage is likely to occur since around 2020 toward the middle of 21st century even

Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally

Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. Burrows

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

Long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over the Pearl River Delta megacity area in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Wang

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Seven-year measurements of precipitation, lightning flashes, and visibility from 2000 to 2006 have been analyzed in the Pearl River Delta (PRD region, China, with a focus on the Guangzhou megacity area. Statistical analysis shows that the occurrence of heavy rainfall (>25 mm per day and frequency of lightning strikes are reversely correlated to visibility during this period. To elucidate the effects of aerosols on cloud processes, precipitation, and lightning activity, a cloud resolving – Weather Research and Forecasting (CR-WRF model with a two-moment bulk microphysical scheme is employed to simulate a mesoscale convective system occurring on 28 Match 2009 in the Guangzhou megacity area. The model predicted evolutions of composite radar reflectivity and accumulated precipitation are in agreement with measurements from S-band weather radars and automatic gauge stations. The calculated lightning potential index (LPI exhibits temporal and spatial consistence with lightning flashes recorded by a local lightning detection network. Sensitivity experiments have been performed to reflect aerosol conditions representative of polluted and clean cases. The simulations suggest that precipitation and LPI are enhanced by about 16% and 50%, respectively, under the polluted aerosol condition. Our results suggest that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation (less than 25 mm per day, but enhances heavy precipitation. The responses of hydrometeors and latent heat release to different aerosol loadings reveal the physical mechanism for the precipitation and lightning enhancement in the Guangzhou megacity area, showing more efficient mixed phase processes and intensified convection under the polluted aerosol condition.

Characteristics and factors of groundwater contamination in Asian coastal megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, M.; Onodera, S. I.; Jin, G.; Shimizu, Y.; Admajaya, F. T.

2017-12-01

For the sustainable use of groundwater resources for the future, it is important to conserve its quality as well as quantity. Especially in the developing megacities, land subsidence and groundwater pollution by several contaminants (e.g. nitrogen, trace metals and organic pollutants etc.) is one of a critical environmental problems, because of the intensive extraction of groundwater and huge amount of contaminant load derived from domestic wastewater as well as agricultural and industrial wastewater. However, the process of groundwater degradation, including depletion and contamination with urbanization, has not been examined well in the previous studies. In the present study, we aim to confirm the characteristics and factors of groundwater contamination in coastal Asian megacities such as Osaka and Jakarta. In Osaka, groundwater was used as a water resource during the period of rapid population increase before 1970, and consequently groundwater resources have been degraded. Hydraulic potential of groundwater has been recovered after the regulation for abstraction. However, it is still below sea level in the deeper aquifer (>20 m) of some regions, and higher Cl-, NH4+-N and PO43-P concentrations were detected in these regions. The results also suggest that shallower aquifer (>10 m) is influenced by infiltration of sewage to groundwater. In the Jakarta metropolitan area, current hydraulic potential is below sea level in because of prior excess abstraction of groundwater. As a result, the direction of groundwater flow is now downward in the coastal area. The distribution of Cl- and Mn concentration in groundwater suggests that the decline in hydraulic potential has caused the intrusion of seawater and shallow groundwater into deep groundwater. It implies an accumulation of contaminants in deep aquifers. On the other hands, NO3-N in groundwater is suggested to be attenuated by the processes of denitrification and dilution in the coastal area.

Impact of anthropogenic emission on air quality over a megacity – revealed from an intensive atmospheric campaign during the Chinese Spring Festival

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Huang

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The Chinese Spring Festival is one of the most important traditional festivals in China. The peak transport in the Spring Festival season (spring travel rush provides a unique opportunity for investigating the impact of human activity on air quality in the Chinese megacities. Emission sources are varied and fluctuate greatly before, during and after the Festival. Increased vehicular emissions during the "spring travel rush" before the 2009 Festival resulted in high level pollutants of NO_x (270 μg m⁻³, CO (2572 μg m⁻³, black carbon (BC (8.5 μg m⁻³ and extremely low single scattering albedo of 0.76 in Shanghai, indicating strong, fresh combustion. Organics contributed most to PM_2.5, followed by NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺, and SO₄²⁻. During the Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve and Day, widespread usage of fireworks caused heavy pollution of extremely high aerosol concentration, scattering coefficient, SO₂, and NO_x. Due to the "spring travel rush" after the festival, anthropogenic emissions gradually climbed and mirrored corresponding increases in the aerosol components and gaseous pollutants. Secondary inorganic aerosol (SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, and NH₄⁺ accounted for a dominant fraction of 74% in PM_2.5 due to an increase in human activity. There was a greater demand for energy as vast numbers of people using public transportation or driving their own vehicles returned home after the Festival. Factories and constructions sites were operating again.

The potential source contribution function (PSCF analysis illustrated the possible source areas for air pollutants of Shanghai. The effects of regional and long-range transport were both revealed. Five major sources, i.e. natural sources, vehicular emissions, burning of fireworks, industrial

Urban UV environment in a sub-tropical megacity – A measurement and modelling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ka-Ming Wai

Full Text Available The variations of solar total UV (UVA + UVB exposure rates in a megacity featured with high-rise buildings during summer months were measured and relevant model predictions were evaluated. The maximum pedestrian-level total solar UV exposure rate was less than the un-obstructed exposure rate at any time, attributing to the prevailing reduction in the diffuse solar radiation due to the obstruction effects of distant buildings. Comparing with the measurements, our coupled model well captured the spatial and temporal variations of the reduction of UV exposure rates. By measurements, large reduction in the solar total UV exposure rate down to 12% of un-obstructed exposure rate due to the building obstruction effects was found, agreeing with our previous simulation results and results from an Australian megacity. On the other hand, building reflection from reflective curtain walls could reach 23% of the un-obstructed solar total UV exposure rate at the ground level. This implied improper building design creating additional harmful effects of solar UV radiation on the environment. The coupled model was also applied to predict the urban UV exposure rates during a tropical-cyclone induced aerosol episode. A well-evaluated urban solar UV model is an important tool for sustainable urban design.

U.S. oil and gas demand set to grow again in 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1993-01-01

This paper reports that renewed economic growth in 1993 will increase total U.S. energy use, bringing a modest gain in demand for petroleum products and continued healthy growth in natural gas consumption. On the other side of the equation, production of crude and condensate in the U.S. will drop again in 1993. This year's drilling won't do much to reverse this dismal trend. The Journal projects the number of well completions to be virtually the same as last year, though operators say they may drill more exploration wells this year. The widening gap between domestic production and demand will mean another sizable increase in imports. U.S. refining capacity will slip this year because of the high cost of meeting environmental regulations. Reduced capacity, coupled with increased product demand, will raise refinery utilization rates to almost 90%. Outside the U.S., the worldwide recession is still keeping a lid on demand growth. And despite the continued production decline in the U.S. and the C.I.S. world crude supply will be more than adequate in 1993. Kuwait's return to prewar production levels, the prospect of Iraq's reentry into the market, and capacity expansion plans will keep downward pressure on prices throughout the year

Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

Remote sensing of GHG over Paris megacity and Orléans forest using ground-based QualAir FTS and TCCON-Orléans

Science.gov (United States)

Te, Y.; Jeseck, P.; Da Costa, J.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.

2012-04-01

In a growing world with more than 7 billion inhabitants and big emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India, emissions of anthropogenic pollutants are increasing continuously. Monitoring and control of atmospheric pollutants in megacities have become a major challenge for scientists and public health authorities in environmental research area. The QualAir platform at University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), is an innovating experimental research platform dedicated to survey greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air quality. As one of the major instruments of the QualAir platform, the ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (QualAir FTS, IFS 125HR model) analyses the composition of the urban atmosphere of Paris, which is the third European megacity. The continuous monitoring of atmospheric pollutants is essential to improve the understanding of urban air pollution processes. Associated with a sun-tracker, the QualAir remote sensing FTS operates in solar infrared absorption and enables to monitor many trace gases, and to follow up their variability in the Ile-de-France region. A description of the QualAir FTS will be given. Concentrations of atmospheric GHG, especially CO2 and CH4, are retrieved by the radiative transfer model PROFFIT. Located in the centre of Paris, the QualAir FTS can provide new and complementary urban measurements as compared to unpolluted ground-based stations of existing networks (NDACC and TCCON). The work made by LPMAA to join the TCCON network will also be presented. TCCON-Orléans is a ground-based FTS of the TCCON network located in the forest of Orléans (100 km south of Paris). Preliminary comparisons of GHGs measurements from both sites will be shown. Such ground-based information will help to better characterize regional GHGs, especially regarding anthropogenic emissions and trends.

Electricity supply and demand analysis in electric system of Uruguay 2000-2007 period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This article is about the following topics: energy analysis, production and use, supply and demand, energy consumption evolution, energy sources, energy demand by economic sector between years 2000-2007, energy range, energy growing rate, demanding maximum power, growing maximum rate, exported and imported energy.

Creative Shenzhen? A critical view on Shenzhen's transformation from a low-cost manufacturing hub to a creative megacity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bontje, M.

2014-01-01

Since 1980, Shenzhen has grown in a record-breaking pace to the megacity it is today. Initially, Shenzhen’s growth was based on low-cost mass industrial production. In recent years, however, the Shenzhen city government is trying to modernize and diversify its economy. Shenzhen has embraced the

On the Use of Hedonic Price Indices to Understand Ecosystem Service Provision from Urban Green Space in Five Latin American Megacities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ursula Loret de Mola

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Latin American (LA megacities are facing enormous challenges to provide welfare to millions of people who live in them. High rates of urbanization and limited administrative capacity of LA cities to plan and control urban growth have led to a critical deficit of urban green space, and therefore, to sub-optimal outcomes in terms of urban sustainability. This study seeks to assess the possibility of using real estate prices to provide an estimate of the monetary value of the ecosystem services provided by urban green space across five Latin American megacities: Bogota, Buenos Aires, Lima, Mexico City and Santiago de Chile. Using Google Earth images to quantify urban green space and multiple regression analysis, we evaluated the impact of urban green space, crime rates, business density and population density on real estate prices across the five mentioned megacities. In addition, for a subset of the data (Lima and Buenos Aires we analyzed the effects of landscape ecology variables (green space patch size, connectivity, etc. on real estate prices to provide a first insight into how the ecological attributes of urban green space can determine the level of ecosystem service provision in different urban contexts in Latin America. The results show a strong positive relationship between the presence of urban green space and real estate prices. Green space explains 52% of the variability in real estate prices across the five studied megacities. Population density, business density and crime had only minor impacts on real estate prices. Our analysis of the landscape ecology variables in Lima and Buenos Aires also show that the relationship between green space and price is context-specific, which indicates that further research is needed to better understand when and where ecological attributes of green space affect real estate prices so that managers of urban green space in LA cities can optimize ecological configuration to maximize ecosystem service

Regional disparity and cost-effective SO2 pollution control in China: A case study in 5 mega-cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanada, Momoe; Dong, Liang; Fujita, Tsuyoshi; Fujii, Minoru; Inoue, Tsuyoshi; Hirano, Yujiro; Togawa, Takuya; Geng, Yong

2013-01-01

With rapid development, increasing sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission becomes a key environmental issue in China. To respond to this challenge, the Chinese government established a top-down scheme to reduce its SO 2 emissions. However, regional disparity and the associated cost differences brought uncertainties to the policy effectiveness and efficiency. Few studies focus on this field. Therefore, this study tries to fill such a gap by investigating the differences of SO 2 emissions, reduction potential, and cost-effectiveness through use of the GAINS-China model in five mega-cities in China, namely, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Hong Kong. A scenario analysis approach is employed, focusing on two technologies named flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and limestone injection (LINJ). Results demonstrated that a large SO 2 reduction potential exists, as well as a great disparity, among the five mega-cities. Chongqing had the largest reduction potential with lowest unit cost, while Beijng and Hong Kong showed the lowest reduction potential with higher unit cost. In Beijing and Shanghai, FGD and LINJ in the power generation sector had the larger reduction potential with the highest cost-effectiveness. However, in Chongqing, the industry sectors also had large reduction potentials. Finally, appropriate SO 2 control strategies and policies are raised by considering the local realities. - Highlights: • The cost-effectiveness of SO 2 control policy was analyzed in five mega-cities in China. • Reduction potential and cost-effectiveness were closely linked to regional disparity. • Beijing and Hong Kong showed lower reduction potential and higher marginal reduction cost. • Chongqing showed the largest reduction potential and the lowest marginal reduction cost

Contribution of Tula Refinery flaring emissions to the Mexico megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Almanza, Victor; Molina, Luisa; Sosa, Gustavo

2013-04-01

Flaring is an important source of greenhouse gases, particulate matter and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in both upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. In 2010 Mexico was the eleventh emitting country with 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas flared (World Bank, 2012). Black carbon (a component of soot) emissions from flaring facilities are of particular interest because soot is considered a short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) (UNEP, 2011). In 2011 there were 23 megacities of at least 10 million inhabitants. It is expected that this number increase to 37 by 2025, which will include one more in Northern America (NA) and two more in Latin America (UN, 2012). International collaborative projects like MILAGRO in NA and MEGAPOLI/CityZen in Europe, have been conducted to assess the impact of megacities air pollution at several scales. The former focused on the air pollution plume of Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), the largest megacity in NA. This work studies the contribution of flaring emissions from Tula Refinery to regional air quality. This is accomplished in two steps. First, the flame of a representative sour gas flare is modeled with a CFD combustion code in order to estimate emission rates of combustion by-products of interest for air quality. Mass flow rates of acetylene, ethylene, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, soot and sulfur dioxide are obtained. The emission rates of NO2 and SO2 are compared with measurements obtained at Tula as part of MILAGRO field campaign. The rates of soot, VOCs and CO emissions are compared with estimates obtained by Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP). The second stage takes the flaring emission rates of the aforementioned species as inputs to WRF-Chem in order to simulate the chemical transport of the plume from 22 March to 27 March of 2006. The air quality model presented reliable performance of the resolved meteorology, with respect to the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE

Transforming Karachi into a Livable and Competitive Megacity : A City Diagnostic and Transformation Strategy

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2018-01-01

With a population of 16 million, Karachi is the largest megacity in Pakistan. Despite being a large city that is home to many, it has seen a substantial decline in quality of life and economic competitiveness in recent decades. Basic service delivery is very poor, with very low indicators for water supply, sanitation, public transport and public spaces. Pollution levels are high, and the city is vulnerable to disasters and climate change. A highly complex political economy, institutional frag...

Balancing natural gas policy : Fueling the demands of a growing economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howard, R.

2003-01-01

In March 2002 a request was made to the National Petroleum Council by the United States Secretary of Energy to examine the potential implications of new supplies, technologies, perceptions of risk on natural gas demand, supplies, and delivery through 2025. In addition, the Secretary was looking for insight on energy market dynamics and an outlook on the longer-term sustainability of natural gas supplies. Ideas on ways to improve the productivity and efficiency of North American natural gas markets while ensuring adequate and reliable supplies of energy for consumers were also requested. Two options were examined by the National Petroleum Council (NPC). The reactive path involves public policies which remain in conflict, while the balanced future involves aligned public policies. It was discovered that 75 per cent of long-term American gas needs will be met by traditional North American producing areas which will be unable to meet projected demand. Production growth is desirable in the Rockies and deepwater Gulf of Mexico, as well as non conventional production. After careful examination, it was determined that demand flexibility and efficiency must be improved, along with an increase in supply diversity. Infrastructure must be enhanced and sustained, and efficient markets must be promoted. All these measures would result in higher economic growth, higher employment, and stronger industrial activity. figs

Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijl, David L.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Kram, Tom; de Vries, Bert J M; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Better water demand projections are needed in order to better assess water scarcity. The focus in this paper is on non-agricultural water demand, as this is the fastest-growing and least well-modelled demand component. We describe an end use-oriented model for future water demand in the electricity,

Assessing Urban Water Management Sustainability of a Megacity: Case Study of Seoul, South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyowon Kim

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Many cities are facing various water-related challenges caused by rapid urbanization and climate change. Moreover, a megacity may pose a greater risk due to its scale and complexity for coping with impending challenges. Infrastructure and governance also differ by the level of development of a city which indicates that the analysis of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM and water governance are site-specific. We examined the status of IWRM of Seoul by using the City Blueprint® Approach which consists of three different frameworks: (1 Trends and Pressures Framework (TPF, (2 City Blueprint Framework (CBF and (3 the water Governance Capacity Framework (GCF. The TPF summarizes the main social, environmental and financial pressures that may impede water management. The CBF assesses IWRM of the urban water cycle. Finally, the GCF identifies key barriers and opportunities to develop governance capacity. The results indicate that nutrient recovery from wastewater, stormwater separation, and operation cost recovery of water and sanitation services are priority areas for Seoul. Furthermore, the local sense of urgency, behavioral internalization, consumer willingness to pay, and financial continuation are identified as barriers limiting Seoul’s governance capacity. We also examined and compared the results with other mega-cities, to learn from their experiences and plans to cope with the challenges in large cities.

Water management for a megacity: Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Tortajada, Cecilia; Castelán, Enrique

2003-03-01

The paper presents an overview of the present situation of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The analysis indicates an urgent need to radically improve the current water supply and wastewater management practices, to become sustainable. The MCMA is one of the most rapidly growing urban centers of the world, with a population of about 21 million people, a very high rate of immigration and numerous illegal settlements. In order to meet the increasing water demand, successive governments have focused almost exclusively on supply management and engineering solutions, which have resulted in investments of hundreds of millions of USD and the construction of major infrastructure projects for interbasin water transfer. Environmental, economic and social policies associated with water management are mostly inadequate and insufficient, which is resulting in increasing deterioration in the environment, health and socioeconomic conditions of a population living in one of the largest urban agglomerations of the world. Surprisingly, however, no long-term strategies on demand-management, reuse, conservation, and improved water-management practices have been developed so far.

Toxicity and mutagenicity of exhaust from compressed natural gas: Could this be a clean solution for megacities with mixed-traffic conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwal, Avinash K; Ateeq, Bushra; Gupta, Tarun; Singh, Akhilendra P; Pandey, Swaroop K; Sharma, Nikhil; Agarwal, Rashmi A; Gupta, Neeraj K; Sharma, Hemant; Jain, Ayush; Shukla, Pravesh C

2018-04-20

Despite intensive research carried out on particulates, correlation between engine-out particulate emissions and adverse health effects is not well understood yet. Particulate emissions hold enormous significance for mega-cities like Delhi that have immense traffic diversity. Entire public transportation system involving taxis, three-wheelers, and buses has been switched from conventional liquid fuels to compressed natural gas (CNG) in the Mega-city of Delhi. In this study, the particulate characterization was carried out on variety of engines including three diesel engines complying with Euro-II, Euro-III and Euro-IV emission norms, one Euro-II gasoline engine and one Euro-IV CNG engine. Physical, chemical and biological characterizations of particulates were performed to assess the particulate toxicity. The mutagenic potential of particulate samples was investigated at different concentrations using two different Salmonella strains, TA98 and TA100 in presence and absence of liver S9 metabolic enzyme fraction. Particulates emitted from diesel and gasoline engines showed higher mutagenicity, while those from CNG engine showed negligible mutagenicity compared to other test fuels and engine configurations. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) adsorbed onto CNG engine particulates were also relatively fewer compared to those from equivalent diesel and gasoline engines. Taken together, our findings indicate that CNG is comparatively safer fuel compared to diesel and gasoline and can offer a cleaner transport energy solution for mega-cities with mixed-traffic conditions, especially in developing countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence is growing on demand side of an oil peak

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-07-15

After years of continued growth, the number of miles driven by Americans started falling in December 2007. Not only are the number of miles driven falling, but as cars become more fuel efficient, they go further on fewer gallons - further reducing demand for gasoline. This trend is expected to accelerate. Drivers include, along with higher-efficiency cars, mass transit, reversal in urban sprawl, biofuels, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Modelling and evaluating municipal solid waste management strategies in a mega-city: The case of Ho Chi Minh City

NARCIS (Netherlands)

ThiKimOanh, L.; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, J.M.; Buuren, van J.C.L.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Rulkens, W.H.

2015-01-01

Ho Chi Minh City is a large city that will become a mega-city in the near future. The city struggles with a rapidly increasing flow of municipal solid waste and a foreseeable scarcity of land to continue landfilling, the main treatment of municipal solid waste up to now. Therefore, additional

Urban climate and energy demand interaction in Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Kasilova, E. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.

2017-11-01

The regional and urban climate change in Northern Eurasia is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of human habitats situated in boreal and temperate areas. The half of primary energy is spent for space heating even under quite a mild European climate. Implementation of the district heating in urban areas is currently seen as one of the key conditions of sustainable development. The clear understanding of main problems of the urban climateenergy demand interaction is crucial for both small towns and megacities. The specific features of the urban energy systems in Finland, Russia and China under the changing climate conditions were studied. Regional manifestations of the climate change were examined. The climate projections were established for urban regions of the Northern Eurasia. It was shown that the climate warming is likely to continue intensively there. History and actual development trends were discussed for the urban district heating systems in Russia, China and Finland. Common challenges linked with the climate change have been identified for the considered areas. Adaptation possibilities were discussed taking into account climate-energy interactions.

How to Keep Teachers Healthy and Growing: The Influence of Job Demands and Resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Evers, Arnoud; Yamkovenko, Bogdan; Van Amersfoort, Daniël

2017-01-01

Purpose – Education depends on high-quality teachers who are committed to professional development and do not get burned out. The purpose of this paper was to investigate how job demands and resources can affect the health and cognitive development of teachers using the Demand-Induced Strain

Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

2012-02-01

Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

Aerosol optical properties in the mega-cities Beijing and Guangzhou: Measurements and implications for regional air pollution, aerosol sources and remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Garland, R. M.; Yang, H.; Schmid, O.; Rose, D.; Gunthe, S. S.

2009-04-01

Aerosol optical properties were measured in two mega-city regions in China. The first site (Backgarden) was in a rural area approximately 60 km northwest of the mega-city Guangzhou in south China and was part of the "Program of Regional Integrated Experiments of Air Quality over the Pearl River Delta" intensive campaign in July 2006 (PRIDE-PRD2006). The second site (Yufa) was in a suburban area approximately 40 km south of Beijing and was part of "Campaigns of Air Quality Research in Beijing" (CAREBeijing-2006) in August 2006. Both sites were designed to measure the regional pollution of the mega-cities. The optical parameters determined with a nephelometer and photoacoustic spectrometer include absorption and scattering coefficients, single scattering albedos and Angstrom exponents at multiple wavelengths (450-700 nm). In both measurement campaigns, we observed pronounced diurnal cycles in absorption and scattering coefficients and single scattering albedo, which can be explained by boundary layer mixing effects and enhanced light absorbing carbon emissions from traffic activity during the nighttime and early morning, respectively (diesel soot from regulated truck traffic). In Beijing both the extensive and the intensive properties were highly dependent upon the origin of the air mass, which indicates that not only does the aerosol concentration change with air mass origin, but so do the chemical composition and sources. When the measured air masses originated in the north and passed over Beijing, the single scattering albedo was generally low (transported into the city from the south. The scattering and absorption coefficients measured in the outflow of the Guangzhou area during PRIDE-PRD2006 were ~2 times smaller than the southerly inflow into Beijing during CARBeijing-2006, which indicates that the sources of particulate pollution south of Beijing are even stronger than those in the Pearl River Delta. In both mega-city regions the Angstrom exponent exhibited a

How to Keep Teachers Healthy and Growing: The Influence of Job Demands and Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Evers, Arnoud T.; Yamkovenko, Bogdan; Van Amersfoort, Daniël

2017-01-01

Purpose: Education depends on high-quality teachers who are committed to professional development and do not get burned out. The purpose of this paper was to investigate how job demands and resources can affect the health and cognitive development of teachers using the Demand-Induced Strain Compensation model. Design/methodology/approach: A…

Outline of energy (electricity) supply and demand outlook in Asian APEC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujime, Kazuya

1995-01-01

Oil: Japan's oil demand is projected to be on a gradual decline in the future due to implementation of policy measures aimed at achieving that objective, while consumption of oil in three areas - China, NIES and six ASEAN countries -- is projected to increase to reach a level nearly three times as large as Japan's demand by 2010. Supply of oil in the region is projected to level off, making it necessary for the region to increase its reliance on other areas for additional volumes of oil supply. Coal: Demand for coal is projected to grow against a background of expansion of coal-fired power generation. Coal demand in China, in particular, is projected to grow to such an extent that China may become a net coal importer, thus having a great impact on coal supply and demand in Asian countries. Natural gas: Demand for natural gas is projected to grow in the region, centering on NIES and ASEAN countries. Although production in ASEAN countries is expected to increase, the region is anticipated to increase its reliance on other areas for natural gas supply from medium - and long term perspectives. Oil products: Demand for oil products is projected to grow due to stepped-up industrialization and motorization in China, NIES and ASEAN countries. From medium - and long-term perspectives, considerable volumes of additional oil product supply will become necessary, unless large-scale refineries are newly built or expanded within the region centering on China. (author)

The installed nuclear capacity is expected to grow by 70% by 2030 according to WNA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2011-01-01

The installed nuclear capacity is expected to grow by 70% in the next 20 years and to reach 614 GW in 2030 according to the World National Association (WNA). The main demand will come from China, India, Korea and the United-Kingdom. This growth will imply a 70% growth in the demand for uranium. Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan that own the biggest reserves of uranium will benefit from this growing demand. (A.C.)

Contraceptive implants: providing better choice to meet growing family planning demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobstein, Roy; Stanley, Harriet

2013-03-01

Contraceptive implants are extremely effective, long acting, and suitable for nearly all women-to delay, space, or limit pregnancies-and they are increasingly popular. Now, markedly reduced prices and innovative service delivery models using dedicated non-physician service providers offer a historic opportunity to help satisfy women's growing need for family planning.

Regional-to-Urban Enviro-HIRLAM Downscaling for Meteorological and Chemical Patterns over Chinese Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Gonzalez-Aparicio, Iratxe; Amstrup, Bjarne; Baklanov, Alexander; Yang, Xiaohua; Nielsen, Kristian

2015-04-01

Due to strong economic growth in the past decades, air pollution became a serious problem in megacities and major industrial agglomerations of China. So, information on air quality in these urbanized areas is important for population. In particular, the metropolitan areas of Shanghai, Beijing, and Pearl River Delta are well known as main regions with serious air pollution issues. One of the aims of the EU FP7 MarcoPolo project is to improve existing regional-meso-urban/city scale air quality forecasts using improved emission inventories and to validate modelling results using satellite and ground-based measurements. The Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) adapted for the Shanghai region of China is applied for forecasting. The model is urbanized using the Building Effects Parameterization module, which describes different types of urban districts such as industrial commercial, city center, high density and residential with its own characteristics. For sensitivity studies, the model was run in downscaling chain from regional-to-urban scales at subsequent horizontal resolutions of 15-5-2.5 km for selected dates with elevated pollution levels and unfavorable meteorological conditions. For these dates, the effects of urbanization are analyzed for atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition, and chemical transformations. The evaluation of formation and development of meteorological and chemical/aerosol patterns due to influence of the urban areas is performed. The impact of selected (in a model domain) megacities of China is estimated on regional-to-urban scales, as well as relationship between air pollution and meteorology are studied.

Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Kunzmann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation. PMID:26378910

Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I; Ferse, Sebastian C A; Kunzmann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gunilla Baum

Full Text Available Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers, however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

Model elucidating the sources and formation mechanisms of severe haze pollution over Northeast mega-city cluster in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ting; Gbaguidi, Alex; Yan, Pingzhong; Zhang, Wending; Zhu, Lili; Yao, Xuefeng; Wang, Zifa; Chen, Hui

2017-11-01

Recent studies on regional haze pollution over China come up in general with strong variability of main causes of heavy polluted episodes, in linkage with local specificities, sources and pollution characteristics. This paper therefore aims at elucidating the main specific sources and formation mechanisms of observed strong haze pollution episodes over 1-15 November 2015 in Northeast region considered as one of biggest megacity clusters in China. The Northeast China mega-city cluster, including Heilong Jiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces, is adjacent to Russia in the north, Mongolian at the west, North Korea at east, and representing key geographical location in the regional and transnational air pollution issues in China due to the presence of heavy industries and intense economic activities. The present study, based on air quality monitoring, remote sensing satellite data and sensitivity experiments carried on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS), quantitatively assesses the impact of meteorological conditions and potential contributions from regional chemical transport, intensive energy combustion, illegal emission and biomass burning emissions to PM 2.5 concentration variation. The results indicate strong inversion occurrence at lower atmosphere with weak near-surface wind speed and high relative humidity, leading to PM 2.5 concentration increase of about 30-50%. Intensive energy combustion (plausibly for heating activities) and illegal emission also significantly enhance the overall PM 2.5 accumulation by 100-200 μg m -3 (60-70% increase), against 75-100 μg m -3 from the biomass burning under the northeast-southwest transport pathway, corresponding to a contribution of 10-20% to PM 2.5 concentration increase. Obviously, stagnant meteorological conditions, energy combustion, illegal emission and biomass burning are main drivers of strong haze formation and spatial distribution over Northeast China megacity cluster. In clear, much

Ambiental volatile organic compounds in the megacity of São Paulo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Droprinchinski Martins

2008-01-01

Full Text Available In order to characterize the composition of the main urban air organic compounds in the megacity of Sao Paulo, analysis of samples collected during the winter of 2003 downtown was carried out. The samplings were performed on the roof of a building in the commercial center of São Paulo. Hydrocarbons and carbonyls compounds were collected on August 4, 5 and 6. Comparing to previous data, the concentration of hydrocarbons presented no decrease in the concentration, except for the aldehydes, which decreased when compared to previous data. Among the HCs species analyzed, the highest concentrations observed were those of toluene (7.5 ± 3.4 ppbv, n-decane (3.2 ± 2.0 ppbv, benzene (2.7 ± 1.4 ppbv and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene (2.2 ± 1.5 ppbv.

UK Nuclear Workforce Demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, John

2017-01-01

UK Nuclear Sites: DECOMMISSIONING - 26 Magnox Reactors, 2 Fast Reactors; OPERATIONAL - 14 AGRs, 1 PWR; 9.6 GWe Total Capacity. Nuclear Workforce Demand • Total workforce demand is expected to grow from ~88,000 in 2017 to ~101,000 in 2021 • Average “inflow” is ~7,000 FTEs per annum • 22% of the workforce is female (28% in civil, 12% in defence) • 81% generic skills, 18% nuclear skills, 1% subject matter experts • 3300 trainees total in SLCs and Defence Enterprise (16% graduate trainees) • At peak demand on Civils Construction, over 4,000 workers will be required on each nuclear new build site • Manufacturing workforce is expected to rise from around 4,000 in 2014 to 8,500 at the peak of onsite activity in 2025

Long-term changes of tropospheric NO2 over megacities derived from multiple satellite instruments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Hilboll

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Tropospheric NO2, a key pollutant in particular in cities, has been measured from space since the mid-1990s by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. These data provide a unique global long-term dataset of tropospheric pollution. However, the observations differ in spatial resolution, local time of measurement, viewing geometry, and other details. All these factors can severely impact the retrieved NO2 columns. In this study, we present three ways to account for instrumental differences in trend analyses of the NO2 columns derived from satellite measurements, while preserving the individual instruments' spatial resolutions. For combining measurements from GOME and SCIAMACHY into one consistent time series, we develop a method to explicitly account for the instruments' difference in ground pixel size (40 × 320 km2 vs. 30 × 60 km2. This is especially important when analysing NO2 changes over small, localised sources like, e.g. megacities. The method is based on spatial averaging of the measured earthshine spectra and extraction of a spatial pattern of the resolution effect. Furthermore, two empirical corrections, which summarise all instrumental differences by including instrument-dependent offsets in a fitted trend function, are developed. These methods are applied to data from GOME and SCIAMACHY separately, to the combined time series, and to an extended dataset comprising also GOME-2 and OMI measurements. All approaches show consistent trends of tropospheric NO2 for a selection of areas on both regional and city scales, for the first time allowing consistent trend analysis of the full time series at high spatial resolution. Compared to previous studies, the longer study period leads to significantly reduced uncertainties. We show that measured tropospheric NO2 columns have been strongly increasing over China, the Middle East, and India, with values over east-central China tripling from 1996 to 2011. All parts of the developed world

Forecast electricity demand in Quebec: Development plan 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

Demographic, economic, and energy prospects are the determining factors in estimating demand for electricity in Quebec. In average scenarios developed for 1992-2010, the Quebec population will grow 0.5%/y and the gross domestic product will increase 2.6%/y. Firm electricity sales by Hydro-Quebec will grow to 197.9 TWh by 2010, or 2.2%/y. Sales in the residential and farm sectors should grow 1.3%/y and sales in the general and institutional sectors should rise by 2.2%/y. Electricity demand in the industrial sector, rising at an estimated 2.9%/y in 1992-2010, is chiefly responsible for the anticipated growth in Hydro-Quebec's overall sales. The nonferrous smelting, refining, chemicals, and paper industries will account for ca 60% of this growth. In the municipal services and public transportation sectors, demand should grow 3.3%/y, and over half the growth forecast in this sector can be attributed to the impact that new uses of electricity are expected to have after 2005. High- and low-growth scenarios offer alternative visions of demand growth based on different but equally valid assumptions about demographic and economic growth. In terms of firm electricity sales, the high- and low-growth scenarios differ by 50 TWh in 2010. Hydro-Quebec has retained two strategic orientations that will influence growth in electricity sales: the development of industrial markets and extension of the energy-savings objective of 9.3 TWh forecast to the year 2000. Taking these two orientations into account, the growth rate for electricity sales in the average scenario would be 1.8%/y rather than 2.2%/y. 25 figs., 81 tabs

Managing the impact of growing low-acuity demand on ambulance services

OpenAIRE

KATHRYN JEAN EASTWOOD

2018-01-01

Increasing demand for emergency ambulances places a substantial burden on ambulance services. Many cases are low-acuity, having no urgent clinical need for paramedic treatment. Ambulance Victoria implemented a secondary telephone triage services to divert low-acuity cases away from emergency ambulances to more appropriate care. This research found this ‘Referral Service’ has had a substantial impact upon emergency operations, referring over 70% of the cases it managed away from emergency am...

Domestic demand for petroleum in OPEC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakravorty, U.; Fesharaki, F.; Zhou, S.

2000-01-01

The literature on OPEC energy policy has focused primarily on its production and export potential. The rapidly increasing domestic demand for petroleum products in OPEC countries has often been ignored. This study estimates domestic demand for petroleum products by the major OPEC economies and forecasts consumption trends under alternative assumptions regarding economic growth and price deregulation. It concludes that product demand is generally price and income inelastic and thus domestic consumption in OPEC will continue to grow rapidly, even if domestic prices are raised closer to world levels in the near future

A comparative study of the organic matter in PM 2.5 from three Chinese megacities in three different climatic zones

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Jialiang; Hu, Min; Chan, Chak K.; Lau, P. S.; Fang, Ming; He, Lingyan; Tang, Xiaoyan

Organic matter in PM 2.5 collected in 2002 and 2003 from three megacities in different climatic zones in China, Beijing (40°N), Shanghai (31°N) and Guangzhou (23°N), was characterized. The focus was on solvent-extractable organic compounds (SEOC), which were used to identify the influences of geography, variation of the season, sources and transport on the concentration and distribution of these homologues. Organic carbon, elemental carbon, and water-soluble organic carbon concentrations were analyzed only for the substantiation of the SEOC findings. Analysis of the fossil fuel residues and the plant wax components in n-alkanes, PAHs, fatty acids and n-alkanols allowed the identification of anthropogenic (coal and petroleum combustion processes, and kitchen emissions) and biogenic (vegetation and microbial) sources. The influence of temperature on the distribution of the SEOC was exemplified by the negative correlation between the relative concentrations of the semivolatile homologues (alkanes and PAHs) and ambient temperature. This is attributable to gas-particle partitioning. Indirectly, ambient temperature dictates the type of vegetation that can grow in a geographical zone. This would influence the distribution of the plant waxes, and finally, it plays a role in the aerosol loading due to energy usage.

Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

2012-06-01

Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

Ground-Based Remote Sensing of Aerosol Properties over a Coastal Megacity of Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salman Tariq

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols are considered to be an important constituent of Earth’s atmosphere because of their climatic, environmental, and health effects. Therefore, while studying the global climate change, investigation of aerosol concentrations and properties is essential both at local and regional levels. In this paper, we have used relatively long-term Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET data during September 2006–August 2014 to analyze aerosol properties such as aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (AOD, Ångström exponent (440–870 nm (AE, refractive index (RI, and asymmetry parameter over Karachi, a coastal megacity of Pakistan. The average annual values of AOD and AE were found to be 0.48 ± 0.20 and 0.59 ± 0.29, respectively. The peak (0.88 ± 0.31 AOD was recorded in July with corresponding AE of 0.30 ± 0.22 representing reasonably higher concentration of coarse size particles over Karachi. The cluster analysis using the scatter plot between absorption AE and extinction AE revealed that desert dust prevailed in the atmosphere of Karachi in spring and summer, while biomass burning aerosols dominate in autumn and winter. The peak values of volume concentrations of coarse and fine-mode particulate matter were found in summer and autumn, respectively. Also, we found significant growing trend in single-scattering albedo with wavelength, indicating the domination of dust particles during summer and spring. The peak value of the real part of the RI was observed in spring (1.53 and modest in winter (1.50. On the contrary, the peak value of the imaginary part of the RI was observed to be constantly elevated in winter and lesser in spring.

Maintenance of Access as Demand for Substance Use Disorder Treatment Grows

OpenAIRE

Frakt, Austin B.; Trafton, Jodie; Pizer, Steven D.

2015-01-01

Due to the Affordable Care Act and other recent laws and regulations, funding for substance use disorder (SUD) treatment is on the rise. In the 2000s, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) implemented several initiatives that increased funding for SUD treatment during a period of growth in demand for it. A key question is whether access to and intensity of treatment kept pace or declined. Using VA SUD treatment funding data and patient-level records to construct performance measures, we stu...

Publications | Page 30 | IDRC - International Development Research ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Results 291 - 300 of 6382 ... The global urban population is expected to grow by 63 percent between 2014 and 2050 – compared to an overall global population growth of 32 percent during the same period. Megacities with over 20-million inhabitants will see the fastest increase in population – and at least 13 new megacities ...

Characteristics and trends of China's oil demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Haibo

2010-09-15

Based on historical analysis of Chinese oil consumption from 1980 to 2008, the author develops an econometric modeling - Medium and Long-term Chinese Oil Demand Forecast Model. Results shows that, Chinese oil demand will be 632 MT in 2020 without consideration of substitutions, and the annual growth rate will be 4.2%, much slower than before. The demand ratio of diesel to gasoline will decline, while kerosene demand will grow faster. If new energy vehicles (NGV and electric vehicles, etc.) develop rapidly and industrial fuel-oil demand is substituted effectively, about 23 million tons of oil could be saved.

Phosphorus dynamics and limitation of fast- and slow-growing temperate seaweeds in Oslofjord, Norway

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Morten Foldager; Borum, Jens; Fotel, Frank Leck

2010-01-01

During coastal eutrophication, fast-growing, ephemeral macroalgae bloom at the expense of slow-growing, perennial macroalgae. This change in community composition has been explained by a differential ability to exploit and utilize inorganic nitrogen among macroalgae with different growth strategies......-growing algae (Ulva and Ceramium) took up dissolved inorganic P (DIP) much faster than thicker, slower growing species (belonging to Fucus, Ascophyllum and Laminaria) but also had much higher P-demands per unit biomass and time. DIP concentrations in the Oslofjord were low from April through August, and fast......-growing species were unable to meet their P-demand from uptake for several months during summer. Hence, Ceramium and Ulva were potentially P-limited during summer, whereas Ascophyllum and Laminaria were able to acquire sufficient external DIP to remain P-replete throughout the year. Storage of P prevented Fucus...

The end of surplus and a growing role in world markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eklof, W.D.

1991-01-01

Rapid economic growth in Asia in recent years has rekindled the region's appetite for energy. This surge in energy consumption since the oil price collapse in 1986 has brought into sharp focus critical challenges facing Asian governments and commercial organizations in the 1990's--challenges that must be met if the economic success of recent years is to continue. Yet supplying energy to fuel economic growth will be more difficult than in the past. Oil reserves in the region are inadequate to support the anticipated growth in demands, and new discoveries may be modest. Gas reserves are plentiful, but not well located to meet the energy needs of major markets. Added to difficulties associated with these resource-based limitations new challenges are emerging: growing consumer demands for transportation fuels and electricity, a growing concern for the environmental impact of energy production and consumption, and the need to rethink long-standing energy policies that were based on expectations of very high future oil prices. These new factors will complicate policy decisions and place new constraints on available energy options. This paper addresses the future development of Asian oil and gas markets in light of these challenges, and provides an assessment of the potential growth of gas markets, the need for growing oil imports into the region, and the need for new refining capacity to meet the growing demand for transportation fuels

DEMAND FOR MALAYSIA'S EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM THE ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

Koi Nyen Wong

2006-01-01

This study estimates the determinants of foreign demand for Malaysia's top five electronics exports by SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) product groups from 1990 to 2001. Cointegration results indicate a unique long-run relationship between export demand for electronic products and relative prices and foreign income. Both the estimated long-run income and price elasticities of export demand are greater than 1, conforming to a pattern found in most fast-growing economies and i...

Towards Interpreting the Signal of CO2 Emissions from Megacities by Applying a Lagrangian Receptor-oriented Model to OCO-2 XCO2 data

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, D.; Lin, J. C.; Oda, T.; Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Yang, E. G.; Kort, E. A.

2017-12-01

Urban regions are large emitters of CO2 whose emission inventories are still associated with large uncertainties. Therefore, a strong need exists to better quantify emissions from megacities using a top-down approach. Satellites — e.g., the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), provide a platform for monitoring spatiotemporal column CO2 concentrations (XCO2). In this study, we present a Lagrangian receptor-oriented model framework and evaluate "model-retrieved" XCO2 by comparing against OCO-2-retrieved XCO2, for three megacities/regions (Riyadh, Cairo and Pearl River Delta). OCO-2 soundings indicate pronounced XCO2 enhancements (dXCO2) when crossing Riyadh, which are successfully captured by our model with a slight latitude shift. From this model framework, we can identify and compare the relative contributions of dXCO2 resulted from anthropogenic emission versus biospheric fluxes. In addition, to impose constraints on emissions for Riyadh through inversion methods, three uncertainties sources are addressed in this study, including 1) transport errors, 2) receptor and model setups in atmospheric models, and 3) urban emission uncertainties. For 1), we calculate transport errors by adding a wind error component to randomize particle distributions. For 2), a set of sensitivity tests using bootstrap method is performed to describe proper ways to setup receptors in Lagrangian models. For 3), both emission uncertainties from the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) and the spread among three emission inventories are used to approximate an overall fractional uncertainty in modeled anthropogenic signal (dXCO2.anthro). Lastly, we investigate the definition of background (clean) XCO2 for megacities from retrieved XCO2 by means of statistical tools and our model framework.

Onsite greywater treatment using pilot scale grow technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajput, M.U.

2015-01-01

The GROW Technology for greywater treatment was installed at the MUET (Mehran University of Engineering and Technology), hostel and run under continuous flow conditions with hydraulic loading rate of 0.15m.d-1. The monitoring and analysis of influent and effluent water were carried out during January-December, 2010. Local plants species such as water hyacinth, Pennywort (duck weed), Mint and Cattail were used in the GROW rig as a mixed mode. Coarse Gravels were filled in the troughs as a medium. The collected samples were analyzed for BOD5 (Biochemical Oxygen Demand), COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand), TSS (Total Suspended Solids), pH, and DO (Dissolved Oxygen). Removal efficiencies of BOD5, COD and TSS were calculated as 83.0,69.0 and 84.0% respectively. DO was found increased from 0.6-3.5 mg.dm-3 while pH was observed between 6.5-7.8. (author)

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

Science.gov (United States)

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

Changing water availability during the African maize-growing season, 1979–2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Estes, Lyndon D; Chaney, Nathaniel W; Herrera-Estrada, Julio; Sheffield, Justin; Caylor, Kelly K; Wood, Eric F

2014-01-01

Understanding how global change is impacting African agriculture requires a full physical accounting of water supply and demand, but accurate, gridded data on key drivers (e.g., humidity) are generally unavailable. We used a new bias-corrected meteorological dataset to analyze changes in precipitation (supply), potential evapotranspiration (E p , demand), and water availability (expressed as the ratio P/E p ) in 20 countries (focusing on their maize-growing regions and seasons), between 1979 and 2010, and the factors driving changes in E p . Maize-growing areas in Southern Africa, particularly South Africa, benefitted from increased water availability due in large part to demand declines driven primarily by declining net radiation, increasing vapor pressure, and falling temperatures (with no effect from changing windspeed), with smaller increases in supply. Sahelian zone countries in West Africa, as well as Ethiopia in East Africa, had strong increases in availability driven primarily by rainfall rebounding from the long-term Sahelian droughts, with little change or small reductions in demand. However, intra-seasonal supply variability generally increased in West and East Africa. Across all three regions, declining net radiation contributed downwards pressure on demand, generally over-riding upwards pressure caused by increasing temperatures, the regional effects of which were largest in East Africa. A small number of countries, mostly in or near East Africa (Tanzania and Malawi) experienced declines in water availability primarily due to decreased rainfall, but exacerbated by increasing demand. Much of the reduced water availability in East Africa occurred during the more sensitive middle part of the maize-growing season, suggesting negative consequences for maize production. (paper)

Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

2014-05-01

The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

The crisis of the core seen through the eyes of the periphery: A Schelling model of the global-south megacity and the European crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dymski Gary A.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Adapting Schelling’s checker-board discrimination framework, we develop a disequilibrium model to examine growth in two core-periphery settings: global-South megacities and the Eurozone. Regarding megacities, informal sector growth undercuts the government’s capacity to fund fully adequate public services. Regarding the Eurozone, an increase in the relative size of the periphery will - under the government’s balanced-budget constraint - undercut the provision of public safety-net and infrastructure services. And if low-wage production is initiated in the European periphery, the core is likely to collapse. “Urbanization is decisive because it is so expensive. The difference between the costs of urban development and rural development does not turn on comparing the capital required for factories and that required for farms. Each of these is a small part of total investment, and the difference per head is not always in favor of industry. The difference turns on infrastructure.” W. Arthur Lewis (1977, pp. 39-40.

Source apportionment of the particulate PAHs at Seoul, Korea: impact of long range transport to a megacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Y. Lee

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Northeast Asia including China, Korea, and Japan is one of the world's largest fossil fuel consumption regions. Seoul, Korea, is a megacity in Northeast Asia. Its emissions of air pollutants can affect the region, and in turn it is also affected by regional emissions. To understand the extent of these influences, major sources of ambient particulate PAHs in Seoul were identified and quantified based on measurements made between August 2002 and December 2003. The chemical mass balance (CMB model was applied. Seven major emission sources were identified based on the emission data in Seoul and Northeast Asia: Gasoline and diesel vehicles, residential coal use, coke ovens, coal power plants, biomass burning, and natural gas (NG combustion. The major sources of particulate PAHs in Seoul during the whole measurement period were gasoline and diesel vehicles, together accounted for 31% of the measured particulate PAHs levels. However, the source contributions showed distinct daily and seasonal variations. High contributions of biomass burning and coal (residential and coke oven were observed in fall and winter, accounting for 63% and 82% of the total concentration of PAHs, respectively. Since these sources were not strong in and around Seoul, they are likely to be related to transport from outside of Seoul, from China and/or North Korea. This implies that the air quality in a mega-city such as Seoul can be influenced by the long range transport of air pollutants such as PAHs.

Megacities in climate governance: the case of Rio de Janeiro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto Teixeira da Silva

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper shows the vital role of cities in climate governance, as places where the crisis is expressed in latent form, but also as emblematic spaces in terms of technological innovation and social empowerment. It discusses challenges of megacities like Rio de Janeiro, given their vulnerability, resilience and environmental risks to the transition of a more intelligent and sustainable patterns of urbanization, through its domestic policies and paradiplomacy networks. Este artigo mostra o papel vital das cidades na governança do clima, como lugares onde a crise se expressa de forma latente, mas também como espaços emblemáticos em termos de inovação tecnológica e empoderamento social. Discute os desafios de megacidades como Rio de Janeiro, considerando suas vulnerabilidades, riscos socioambientais e resiliências para a transição de modelos mais inteligentes e sustentáveis de urbanização, através de suas políticas domésticas e redes de paradiplomacia.

The Fundamental Right To Grow Old With Dignity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camila Rabelo de Matos Silva Arruda

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Over the years the role the growing old in society has been changing considerably, the population is aging and increasing life expectancy. Law No. 10741/03, which established the Statute of the Elderly, where the legislator sought to ensure the right to grow old with dignity. The increase in the number of retirees and unemployment generated changing the demand in the social security system, which is being processed at the national congress. This article examines how society has been treating the elderly and preparing to deal with the aging population.

An Analysis of the Performance of International Tourism Demand in Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benson Ndiege

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the performance of Tanzanian tourism industry which depends on natural heritage tourism scene particularly natural resources by assessing the trend and forecasting the international tourism demand. The number of international tourist arrivals in Tanzania is used as the proxy measure for international tourism demand. Using the data for the period of 2001q1- 2010q4 and using ARIMA model, the study asserts that the international tourism demand in Tanzania is growing though in a very low pace of about 1% per year. This is less than world average growth that has reported by World Tourism Organization (UNWTO in 2012 to reach 4-5% per annum. Moreover, the Tanzania international tourism demand is becoming increasingly less competitive and has been fluctuating over the years. Thus to reap enough from the world growing international tourism demand the development of artificial tourism scene to supplement the natural heritage and development of new tourism products should be given more attention in a Tanzania tourism industry development.

Disaggregated export demand of Malaysia: evidence from the electronics industry

OpenAIRE

Koi Nyen Wong

2008-01-01

This study estimates the determinants of foreign demand for Malaysia's top five electronics exports by SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) product groups from 1990 to 2001. Cointegration results indicate a unique long-run relationship between export demand for electronic products and relative prices and foreign income. Both the estimated long-run income and price elasticities of export demand are greater than 1, conforming to a pattern found in most fast-growing economies and i...

Smart Buildings and Demand Response

Science.gov (United States)

Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Ghatikar, Girish

2011-11-01

Advances in communications and control technology, the strengthening of the Internet, and the growing appreciation of the urgency to reduce demand side energy use are motivating the development of improvements in both energy efficiency and demand response (DR) systems in buildings. This paper provides a framework linking continuous energy management and continuous communications for automated demand response (Auto-DR) in various times scales. We provide a set of concepts for monitoring and controls linked to standards and procedures such as Open Automation Demand Response Communication Standards (OpenADR). Basic building energy science and control issues in this approach begin with key building components, systems, end-uses and whole building energy performance metrics. The paper presents a framework about when energy is used, levels of services by energy using systems, granularity of control, and speed of telemetry. DR, when defined as a discrete event, requires a different set of building service levels than daily operations. We provide examples of lessons from DR case studies and links to energy efficiency.

Characteristics of PM2.5 speciation in representative megacities and across China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, F.; Tan, J.; Zhao, Q.; Du, Z.; He, K.; Ma, Y.; Duan, F.; Chen, G.; Zhao, Q.

2011-06-01

Based on PM2.5 chemical data sets from literature and from our surface observations, chemical species and reconstructed speciation of PM2.5 in representative Chinese megacities and across China were compared to draw insights into the characteristics of PM2.5 speciation. PM2.5 mass concentrations and speciation compositions varied substantially over geographical regions in China. Near six-fold variations in average PM2.5 concentrations (34.0-193.4 μg m-3) across China were found with high PM2.5 levels (>100 μg m-3) appearing in the cities in the northern and western regions and low levels (transport of the secondary aerosols, thus more intensive characteristic of "complex atmospheric pollution" compared to the western region. Organic matter had significant contribution to PM2.5 over all the sites. Organic matter plus sulfate, nitrate, and ammonia accounted for 53-90 % of PM2.5 mass across China. PM2.5 speciation across China was also characterized by high content of crustal material, which was usually at more than ~10 μg m-3 level or shared ~10 % of PM2.5 mass in urban areas, due to transported desert dust and locally induced dust. In four representative megacities (i.e. Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou), PM2.5 mass and major components (except sulfate) were at higher levels than those in US continental east by one order of magnitude. Distinct differences in nitrate and sulfate levels and their mass ratio [NO3-]/[SO42-] imply that mobile sources are likely more important in Guangzhou, whereas in Chongqing it is stationary (coal combustion) sources. The observed intra-city variations in PM2.5 mass and speciation indicate that both local emissions and regional transportation contributed significantly to high fine particle loadings in Beijing, while local contribution likely played a predominant role in Chongqing. During the ten-year period from 1999 through 2008 in urban Beijing, both the sum of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonia and [NO3-]/[SO42-] ratio

Perspective on electricity demand beyond 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appert, O.

2000-01-01

Electricity demand has been the fastest growing form of energy use in the OECD for several decades. Historically there have been strong links between national income (gross domestic product), prices and electricity use. If the trends of the past continue, the annual growth rate of electricity demand to 2020 could reach 2% in the OECD and over 4% in developing countries. Although electricity demand is expected to continue the trend of strong growth in the OECD and also in other regions of the world over the coming decades, there is some question in developed countries of the extent to which electricity demand will be moderated by '' saturation ''. That is, will demand growth level off as electricity completes its penetration into most potential applications and equipment becomes more energy efficient? Will commitments to reduce emissions of conventional airborne pollutants and carbon dioxide increase the cost of electricity generation and slow electricity's demand growth? Or, working in the opposite direction, will new end-uses continue to drive electricity's increasing share of final energy consumption? Will lower prices due to electricity market reform have an impact? This paper explores these issues and provides insights in the likely trends in these areas. (author)

Influence of risk factors and past events on flood resilience in coastal megacities: Comparative analysis of NYC and Shanghai.

Science.gov (United States)

Xian, Siyuan; Yin, Jie; Lin, Ning; Oppenheimer, Michael

2018-01-01

Coastal flood protection measures have been widely implemented to improve flood resilience. However, protection levels vary among coastal megacities globally. This study compares the distinct flood protection standards for two coastal megacities, New York City and Shanghai, and investigates potential influences such as risk factors and past flood events. Extreme value analysis reveals that, compared to NYC, Shanghai faces a significantly higher flood hazard. Flood inundation analysis indicates that Shanghai has a higher exposure to extreme flooding. Meanwhile, Shanghai's urban development, population, and economy have increased much faster than NYC's over the last three decades. These risk factors provide part of the explanation for the implementation of a relatively high level of protection (e.g. reinforced concrete sea-wall designed for a 200-year flood return level) in Shanghai and low protection (e.g. vertical brick and stone walls and sand dunes) in NYC. However, individual extreme flood events (typhoons in 1962, 1974, and 1981) seem to have had a greater impact on flood protection decision-making in Shanghai, while NYC responded significantly less to past events (with the exception of Hurricane Sandy). Climate change, sea level rise, and ongoing coastal development are rapidly changing the hazard and risk calculus for both cities and both would benefit from a more systematic and dynamic approach to coastal protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of peak electricity demand in distribution grids: a stress test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoogsteen, Gerwin; Molderink, Albert; Hurink, Johann L.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria; Schuring, Friso; Kootstra, Ben

2015-01-01

The number of (hybrid) electric vehicles is growing, leading to a higher demand for electricity in distribution grids. To investigate the effects of the expected peak demand on distribution grids, a stress test with 15 electric vehicles in a single street is conducted and described in this paper.

Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

2010-01-01

The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

On Li Zhi's Theory of Growing up in Spirit

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Junjiang

2006-01-01

The theory of growing up in spirit is the core of Li Zhi's thought.The theory attempts to get rid of the limit of the rigid ethical doctrine of Confucianismand to encourage growth in a helpful person for the benefit of the country,which demands both a free environment of society and enough courage and insight of the individual.At the same time,the criterion of growing up in spirit indicates the limitation of Li Zhi's thought.His free exploration,however,provides various revelations for us.

World uranium production and demand: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tauchid, M.; Mueller Kahle, E.

1993-01-01

Despite the growing public concern on the use of nuclear energy, nuclear power generation capacity in the world is expected to follow a modest, but positive growth at least during the next two decades. Uranium production needed to fuel these reactors has been below demand since 1985. The WOCA production figure for 1991 is in the order of 27,000 tonnes U which is 39% below the peak production of 1980. With the exception of Australia, all other countries produced less uranium than in the previous year. It is expected that the production figure for 1992 will shrink even further to about 23,000 tonnes U. In-situ leaching uranium production contributed about 16% to the 1991 world production figure, most of which came from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. With the closing of a number of production facilities the relative contribution of in-situ leaching to the world uranium production is expected to grow. Only about 60% of WOCA's reactor related uranium demand for 1991 was supplied from its own production. The remaining 40% was filled from existing inventories and imports from the Russian Federation and China. The estimated gap between the world uranium production and reactor related demand for 1991 is in the order 10,900 tones U or 19.7%. The cumulative requirement for the world reactor related demand to the year 2010 has been estimated to be about 1,270,000 tonnes U. (author). 6 refs, 10 figs

Market-based Demand Response via Residential Plug-in Electric Vehicles in Smart Grids

OpenAIRE

Rassaei, Farshad; Soh, Wee-Seng; Chua, Kee-Chaing

2015-01-01

Flexibility in power demand, diverse usage patterns and storage capability of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) grow the elasticity of residential electricity demand remarkably. This elasticity can be utilized to form the daily aggregated demand profile and/or alter instantaneous demand of a system wherein a large number of residential PEVs share one electricity retailer or an aggregator. In this paper, we propose a demand response (DR) technique to manage vehicle-to-grid (V2G) enabled PEVs' e...

Growing Sugarcane for Bioenergy – Effects on the Soil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartemink, A.E.

2010-01-01

An increasing area of sugarcane is being growing for the production of bioenergy. Sugarcane puts a high demands on the soil due to the use of heavy machinery and because large amounts of nutrients are removed with the harvest. Biocides and inorganic fertilizers introduces risks of groundwater

Mitigating the Urban Heat Island Effect in Megacity Tehran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sahar Sodoudi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Cities demonstrate higher nocturnal temperatures than surrounding rural areas, which is called “urban heat island” (UHI effect. Climate change projections also indicate increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, which will intensify the UHI effect. As megacity Tehran is affected by severe heatwaves in summer, this study investigates its UHI characteristics and suggests some feasible mitigation strategies in order to reduce the air temperature and save energy. Temperature monitoring in Tehran shows clear evidence of the occurrence of the UHI effect, with a peak in July, where the urban area is circa 6 K warmer than the surrounding areas. The mobile measurements show a park cool island of 6-7 K in 2 central parks, which is also confirmed by satellite images. The effectiveness of three UHI mitigation strategies high albedo material (HAM, greenery on the surface and on the roofs (VEG, and a combination of them (HYBRID has been studied using simulation with the microscale model ENVI-met. All three strategies show higher cooling effect in the daytime. The average nocturnal cooling effect of VEG and HYBRID (0.92, 1.10 K is much higher than HAM (0.16 K, although high-density trees show a negative effect on nocturnal cooling.

Potential Fuel Loadings, Fire Ignitions, and Smoke Emissions from Nuclear Bursts in Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Bardeen, C.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.

2006-12-01

We consider the effects of "small" nuclear detonations in modern "megacities," focusing on the possible extent of fire ignitions, and the properties of corresponding smoke emissions. Explosive devices in the multi-kiloton yield range are being produced by a growing number of nuclear states (Toon et al., 2006), and such weapons may eventually fall into the hands of terrorists. The numbers of nuclear weapons that might be used in a regional conflict, and their potential impacts on population and infrastructure, are discussed elsewhere. Here, we estimate the smoke emissions that could lead to widespread environmental effects, including large-scale climate anomalies. We find that low-yield weapons, which emerging nuclear states have been stockpiling, and which are likely to be targeted against cities in a regional war, can generate up to 100 times as much smoke per kiloton of yield as the high-yield weapons once associated with a superpower nuclear exchange. The fuel loadings in modern cities are estimated using a variety of data, including extrapolations from earlier detailed studies. The probability of ignition and combustion of fuels, smoke emission factors and radiative properties, and prompt scavenging and dispersion of the smoke are summarized. We conclude that a small regional nuclear war might generate up to 5 teragrams of highly absorbing particles in urban firestorms, and that this smoke could initially be injected into the middle and upper troposphere. These results are used to develop smoke emission scenarios for a climate impact analysis reported by Oman et al. (2006). Uncertainties in the present smoke estimates are outlined. Oman, L., A. Robock, G. L. Stenchikov, O. B. Toon, C. Bardeen and R. P. Turco, "Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts," AGU, Fall 2006. Toon, O. B., R. P. Turco, A. Robock, C. Bardeen, L. Oman and G. L. Stenchikov, "Consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism," AGU, Fall

Impact of Mobility-on-Demand on Traffic Congestion: Simulation-based Study

OpenAIRE

Fiedler, David; Čáp, Michal; Čertický, Michal

2017-01-01

The increasing use of private vehicles for transportation in cities results in a growing demand for parking space and road network capacity. In many densely populated urban areas, however, the capacity of existing infrastructure is insufficient and extremely difficult to expand. Mobility-on-demand systems have been proposed as a remedy to the problem of limited parking space because they are able to satisfy the existing transportation demand with fewer shared vehicles and consequently require...

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Photochemically consumed hydrocarbons and their relationship with ozone formation in two megacities of China

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, C.; Wang, J.; Liu, S.; Shao, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, T.; Shiu, C.; Lai, C.

2010-12-01

Two on-site continuous measurements of ozone and its precursors in two megacities of China were carried out in an urban site of Beijing and a suburban site near Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to estimate precursor consumption and to assess its relationship with oxidant (O3+NO2) formation level. An observation-based method (OBM) with the precursor consumption concept was adopted to assess the relationship between oxidant production and amounts of photochemically consumed non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). In this approach, the ratio of ethylbenzene to m,p-xylenes was used to estimate the degree of photochemical processing, as well as the amounts of photochemically consumed NMHCs by reacting with OH. By trying to correlate the observed oxidant with the observed NMHC concentration, the two areas both revealed nearly no to low correlation between them. However, it existed fair to good correlations (R2=0.68 for Beijing, 0.53 for PRD) between the observed oxidant level and the degree of photochemical processing (ethylbenzene/m,p-xylenes). Furthermore, after taking the approach of consumption to estimate the consumed amounts of NMHCs, an interesting finding reveals that the definite correlation existed between the observed oxidant level and the total consumed NMHCs. The good correlations (R2=0.83 for Beijing, 0.81 for PRD) implies that the ambient oxidant level correlated to the amount of consumed NMHCs. The results of the two megacities in China by using the OBM with the precursor consumption concept can provide another pathway to explore the relationship between photochemically produced oxidant and consumed precursors, and will be helpful to validate model results and to reduce uncertainty of model predictions. However, the method has some room for uncertainty, as injection of fresh precursor emissions and additional boundary ozone involved, etc. could affect the estimation of consumed NMHCs and observed oxidant levels. Assistance of approaches in assessing the

Scaling architecture-on-demand based optical networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meyer, Hugo; Sancho, Jose Carlos; Mrdakovic, Milica; Peng, Shuping; Simeonidou, Dimitra; Miao, Wang; Calabretta, Nicola

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes methodologies that allow scaling properly Architecture-On-Demand (AoD) based optical networks. As Data Centers and HPC systems are growing in size and complexity, optical networks seem to be the way to scale the bandwidth of current network infrastructures. To scale the number of

A Distributed, Open Source based Data Infrastructure for the Megacities Carbon Project

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, R.; Crichton, D. J.; Duren, R. M.; Salameh, P.; Sparks, A.; Sloop, C.

2014-12-01

With the goal of assessing the anthropogenic carbon-emission impact of urban centers on local and global climates, the Megacities Carbon Project has been building carbon-monitoring capabilities for the past two years around the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Hundreds of megabytes (MB) of data are generated daily, and distributed among data centers local to the sensor networks involved. We automatically pull this remotely generated data into a centralized data infrastructure local to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), seeking to (1) provide collaboration opportunities on the data, and (2) generate refined data products through community-requested centralized data processing pipelines. The goal of this informatics effort is to ensure near real-time access to generated data products across the Los Angeles carbon monitoring sensor network and meet the data analysis needs of carbon researchers through the production of customized products. We discuss the goals of the informatics effort, its uniqueness, and assess its effectiveness in providing an insight into the carbon sphere of Los Angeles.

Customers Sustainability Demand : A comparison between convenience goods and shopping goods

OpenAIRE

Nilsson, Lisa; Höjman, Viktor; Elfqvist, Patrick

2015-01-01

In pace with a growing awareness among customers, so does the demand for sustainable products increase in various markets. Sustainability is even referred to become a mega-trend (Lubin & Esty, 2010). Although, extensive research can be found on sustainability and its three pillars; environment, social and economic, little is known whether there is a general customer demand for sustainability for any type of good. Therefore, this study’s purpose has been to compare sustainability demand fo...

Analysis of Final Energy Demand by Sector in Malaysia using MAED Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, M.; Muhammed Zulfakar Mohd Zolkaffly; Alawiah Musa

2011-01-01

Energy supply security is important in ensuring a long term supply to fulfill the growing energy demand. This paper presents the use of IAEA energy planning tool, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to analyze, simulate and compare final energy demand by five different sectors in Malaysia under some assumptions, bounds and restrictions and the outcome can be used for planning of energy supply in future. (author)

Public’s Health Risk Awareness on Urban Air Pollution in Chinese Megacities: The Cases of Shanghai, Wuhan and Nanchang

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaojun; Zhu, Hui; Hu, Yongxin; Feng, Sha; Chu, Yuanyuan; Wu, Yanyan; Wang, Chiyu; Zhang, Yuxuan; Yuan, Zhaokang; Lu, Yuanan

2016-01-01

This study assessed the public’s health risk awareness of urban air pollution triggered by three megacities in China, and the data are the responses from a sample size of 3868 megacity inhabitants from Shanghai, Nanchang and Wuhan. Descriptive analyses were used to summarize the respondents’ demographics, perceived health risks from air pollution and sources of health-related knowledge on urban air pollution. Chi-square tests were used to examine if participants’ demographics were associated with participant’s general attitudes towards current air quality and the three perceived highest health risks due to urban air pollution. We found low rate of satisfaction of current urban air quality as well as poor knowledge of air pollution related indicator. Participants’ gender, age and travel experience were found to be associated with the satisfaction of current air quality. The knowledge of air pollution related indicator was significantly affected by respondents’ education, monthly income, health status, and sites of study. As many as 46.23% of the participants expressed their feelings of anxiety when exposed to polluted air, especially females, older adults and those with poor health conditions. Most participants believed that coughs/colds, eye problems and skin allergies were the three highest health risks due to urban air pollution based on public education through television/radio, internet and newspaper/magazine. Further public health education is needed to improve public awareness of air pollution and its effects. PMID:27571088

Electrocoagulation process to Chemical and Biological Oxygen Demand treatment from carwash grey water in Ahvaz megacity, Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadi, Mohammad Javad; Takdastan, Afshin; Jorfi, Sahand; Neisi, Abdolkazem; Farhadi, Majid; Yari, Ahmad Reza; Dobaradaran, Sina; Khaniabadi, Yusef Omidi

2017-04-01

In this work, we present the result of an electric coagulation process with iron and aluminum electrodes for removal of chemical and biological oxygen demand (COD and BOD) from grey water in different car washes of Ahvaz, Iran. Nowadays, one of the important dangerous that can contaminate water resources for drinking, agriculture and industrial is Car wash effluent [1,2]. In this study, initial COD and BOD concentration, pH of the solution, voltage power and reaction time was investigated. The concentration level of remaining COD and BOD in samples was measured, using DR/5000 UV-vis HACH spectrophotometer [3,4]. The effects of contact time, initial pH, electrical potential and voltage data on removal of COD and BOD were presented. Statistical analysis of the data was carried out using Special Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 16).

Electrocoagulation process to Chemical and Biological Oxygen Demand treatment from carwash grey water in Ahvaz megacity, Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Javad Mohammadi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this work, we present the result of an electric coagulation process with iron and aluminum electrodes for removal of chemical and biological oxygen demand (COD and BOD from grey water in different car washes of Ahvaz, Iran. Nowadays, one of the important dangerous that can contaminate water resources for drinking, agriculture and industrial is Car wash effluent [1,2]. In this study, initial COD and BOD concentration, pH of the solution, voltage power and reaction time was investigated. The concentration level of remaining COD and BOD in samples was measured, using DR/5000 UV–vis HACH spectrophotometer [3,4]. The effects of contact time, initial pH, electrical potential and voltage data on removal of COD and BOD were presented. Statistical analysis of the data was carried out using Special Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 16.

Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Immerzeel, W.; Droogers, P.

2013-01-01

In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in

Maintenance of access as demand for substance use disorder treatment grows.

Science.gov (United States)

Frakt, Austin B; Trafton, Jodie; Pizer, Steven D

2015-08-01

Due to the Affordable Care Act and other recent laws and regulations, funding for substance use disorder (SUD) treatment is on the rise. In the 2000s, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) implemented several initiatives that increased funding for SUD treatment during a period of growth in demand for it. A key question is whether access to and intensity of treatment kept pace or declined. Using VA SUD treatment funding data and patient-level records to construct performance measures, we studied the relationship between funding and access during the VA expansion. Overall, we observed an increase in access to and intensity of VA SUD care associated with increased funding. The VA was able to increase funding for and expand the population to which it offered SUD treatment without diminishing internal access and intensity. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Industrial water demand management and cleaner production ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Processes and systems using water today are being subjected to increasingly stringent environmental regulations on effluents and there is growing demand for fresh water. In Morocco, consumption of water by industries is estimated in 1994 at 1 billion m3, the drinking water constitutes 4%. Water used in the food and drink ...

Field demonstration of automated demand response for both winter and summer events in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piette, M.A.; Kiliccote, S.; Dudley, J.H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2013-11-15

There are growing strains on the electric grid as cooling peaks grow and equipment ages. Increased penetration of renewables on the grid is also straining electricity supply systems and the need for flexible demand is growing. This paper summarizes results of a series of field test of automated demand response systems in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest. The objective of the research was twofold. One objective was to evaluate the use demand response automation technologies. A second objective was to evaluate control strategies that could change the electric load shape in both winter and summer conditions. Winter conditions focused on cold winter mornings, a time when the electric grid is often stressed. The summer test evaluated DR strategies in the afternoon. We found that we could automate both winter and summer control strategies with the open automated demand response communication standard. The buildings were able to provide significant demand response in both winter and summer events.

Growing Brazilian demand to spur gas network in South America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deffarges, E.H.; Maurer, L.I.A.

1993-01-01

A recent combination in South America of economic and geopolitical factors is prompting development of a new integrated gas-pipeline network in the continent's Southern Cone. The crucial factors include privatization, regional integration, economic growth, and environmental concerns. The area, Latin America's largest regional entity, includes Brazil (population 150 million and a 1990 GNP of about $375 billion, 9th largest in the world), Argentina (population 32 million and the third largest Latin American economy after Brazil and Mexico), Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay are members of the MercoSur economic bloc whose objective is to develop free trade in the region. There are very few integrated pipeline networks in the world. Besides the giant North American system, with hundreds of producers and pipelines, there is only one other large integrated network. It connects continental European countries to their outside suppliers such as Norway, the C.I.S., and Algeria. The emergence of a new pipeline system is therefore important for the natural-gas industry worldwide and even more so if it occurs in a region now growing rapidly after a decade of economic difficulties

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

2017-01-01

Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

Analysis of Attraction Features of Tourism Destinations in a Mega-City Based on Check-in Data Mining—A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhihui Gu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Location-based service information, provided by social networks, provides new data sources and perspectives to research tourism activities, especially in highly populated mega-cities. Based on three years (2012–2014 of approximately 340,000 check-in records collected from Sina micro-blog at 86 tourist attractions in Shenzhen, a first-tier city in southern China, we conducted a comprehensive study of the attraction features involving different aspects, such as tourist source, duration of stay, check-in activity index, and attraction correlation degree. The results showed that (1 theme parks established in the early 1990s were the most popular tourist attractions in Shenzhen, but a negative trend was detected in the check-in population; (2 compared with check-in times from surrounding activities and the kernel density of tourists, most destinations in Shenzhen showed a lack of attraction, failing to make the most of their geographic accessibility; and (3 the homogeneity and inconvenient traffic conditions of major tourist destinations leading to the construction of a tourism tour chain has become a challenge. The results of this study demonstrate the potential of big-data mining and provide valuable insights into tourism market design and management in mega-cities.

MAX-DOAS aerosol and trace gases measurements in megacities in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Xin [Institut fuer Energie- und Klimaforschung, Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany); College of Environmental Science and Engineering Peking University, Beijing (China); Brauers, Theo [Institut fuer Energie- und Klimaforschung, Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany); Shao, Min [College of Environmental Science and Engineering Peking University, Beijing (China)

2011-07-01

Multi Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAXDOAS) is a new remote sensing technique to measure atmospheric trace gases. Compared to other areas in the world, the atmospheric observations in megacities in China are rather limited. We present MAX-DOAS measurements at four sites in Beijing and Guangzhou in 2006 and 2008. At each site, the scattered sunlight was recorded at 7 elevation angles for about 1 months. Using the zenith spectrum as reference, the Differential Slant Column Densities (DSCDs) of HCHO, CHOCHO, O{sub 4} and NO{sub 2} at offaxis viewing geometries were derived from the DOAS fit. These DSCDs were simulated using a backward Monte Carlo radiative transfer model. The aerosol and trace gas profiles were defined by 3 parameters: the integrated quantities (T), the height of the surface layer (H), and the fraction of T below H. We fitted the modeled values to the measured values at the corresponding viewing geometries by varying the 3 parameters. The aerosol extinction and the boundary layer height were successfully retrieved from the measured O{sub 4} DSCDs as well as ground level concentrations of CHOCHO, HCHO, and NO{sub 2}, the latter being compared to simultaneous in-situ measurements.

Electric demand and the antinuclear movement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Studness, C.M.

1984-01-01

The author feels that, with electric demand growth of 4.5 to 5% per year expected, it will be only a matter of time before stepping-up the stream of utility capacity additions becomes an important issue. If demand grows 4.5% per year instead of 2.8% as projected by NERC, demand will be 10% higher and peak reserve margins about 12 percentage points lower than envisioned by the NERC projections after five years. By 1988 or 1989, little or no excess capacity will remain, and the utilities will be faced with adding twice as much capacity annually as now planned to avoid service deterioration. As questions about the adequacy of current utility capacity plans and concerns about service quality move toward center stage, the antinuclear movement should find it increasingly difficult to garner the broad support it now enjoys. Capacity represented by any uncompleted nuclear plants will appear increasingly beneficial, and those who do not have strong antinuclear sentiments should become increasingly hesitant about lending support to the movement. Accordingly, electric demand growth in due course can be expected to drain marginal supporters from the antinuclear movement and thereby erode the movement's vitality

Product longevity and shared ownership: Sustainable routes to satisfying the world’s growing demand for goods 

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John G. Rogers

2015-09-01

Full Text Available It has been estimated that by 2030 the number of people who are wealthy enough to be significant consumers will have tripled. This will have a dramatic impact on the demands for primary materials and energy. It has been estimated that with improvements in design and manufacturing it is possible to maintain the current level of production using 70% of the current primary material consumed. Even with these improvements on the production side, there will still be a doubling of primary material requirements by the end of the century, with accompanying rises in industrial energy demand, if the rise in demand for goods and services is to be met. It is therefore clear that the consumption of products must also be explored. Product longevity and using goods more intensively are two strategies which could reduce the demand for new goods. If products last longer, then manufacturing output can concentrate on emerging markets rather than the market for replacement goods. There are many goods which are infrequently used, these seldom wear out. The total demand for such could be drastically reduced if they were shared with other people. Sharing of goods has traditionally been conducted between friends or by hiring equipment, but modern communication systems and social media could increase the opportunities to share goods. Sharing goods also increases access to a range of goods for those on low incomes. From a series of workshops it has been found that the principal challenges are sociological rather than technological. This paper contains a discussion of these challenges and explores possible futures where these two strategies have been adopted. In addition, the barriers and opportunities that these strategies offer for consumers and businesses are identified, and areas where government policy could be instigated to bring about change are highlighted.

Demand, deregulation may attract more refiners to Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhodes, A.K.

1995-01-01

As a result of rapidly increasing demand, major oil companies are eyeing Asian oil and gas markets more closely than ever. Higher earnings can be expected there than in the US or Europe, where product markets--especially light products--are expected to tighten long-term. Of the nations with growing requirements for refined products, China and India offer greater opportunity for foreign investors to enter downstream projects. Also offering excellent business prospects are Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The paper discusses oil demand, products, refining capacity, and capacity additions in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China

Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chelmis, Charalampos [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Aman, Saima [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor K. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

2015-01-30

Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

Typical types and formation mechanisms of haze in an Eastern Asia megacity, Shanghai

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Huang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available An intensive aerosol and gases campaign was performed at Shanghai in the Yangtze River Delta region over Eastern China from late March to early June 2009. This study provided a complementary picture of typical haze types and the formation mechanisms in megacities over China by using a synergy of ground-based monitoring, satellite and lidar observations. During the whole study period, several extreme low visibility periods were observed with distinct characteristics, and three typical haze types were identified, i.e. secondary inorganic pollution, dust, and biomass burning. Sulfate, nitrate and ammonium accounted for a major part of PM_2.5 mass during the secondary inorganic pollution, and the good correlation between SO₂/NO_x/CO and PM_2.5 indicated that coal burning and vehicle emission were the major sources. Large-scale regions with high AOD (aerosol optical depths and low Ångström exponent were detected by remote-sensing observation during the dust pollution episode, and this episode corresponded to coarse particles rich in mineral components such as Al and Ca contributing 76.8% to TSP. The relatively low Ca/Al ratio of 0.75 along with the air mass backward trajectory analysis suggested the dust source was from Gobi Desert. Typical tracers for biomass burning from satellite observation (column CO and HCHO and from ground measurement (CO, particulate K⁺, OC, and EC were greatly enhanced during the biomass burning pollution episode. The exclusive linear correlation between CO and PM_2.5 corroborated that organic aerosol dominated aerosol chemistry during biomass burning, and the high concentration and enrichment degree of arsenic (As could be also partly derived from biomass burning. Aerosol optical profile observed by lidar demonstrated that aerosol was mainly constrained below the boundary layer and comprised of spheric aerosol (depolarization ratio <5% during the secondary

Cheap heat grows in fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haluza, I.

2006-01-01

Slovak farmers resemble the peasants from the film T he Magnificent Seven . They keep complaining about their fate but consider any innovation as an interference. And that is why they still have not started growing fast-growing wood although the number of heating plants processing bio-mass from forests and fields is growing. Natural gas is expensive and coal creates pollution. Energy from biomass is becoming a good business and also creates new business opportunities - growing the raw material it needs. Such heating plants usually use waste from wood processing companies and Slovak Forests (Lesy SR) has also started deliveries of chip wood from old forests. There are plantations of fast growing wood suitable for heat production of over 500-thousand hectares throughout the EU. This is about 10% of Slovakian's area where the first plantations are also already being set up. The first promising plantation project was launched this spring. And this is not a project launched and backed by a big company but a starting up businessman, Miroslav Forgac from Kosice. He founded his company, Forgim, last winter. Without big money involved and thank to a new business idea he managed to persuade farmers to set up the first plantations. He supplied the seedlings and the business has started with 75 ha of plantations around Trnava, Sala, Komarno, Lucenec, Poprad and Kosice. He is gradually signing contracts with other landowners and next year the area of plantations is set to grow by 1500 ha. Plantations of fast growing trees such as willow, poplar and acacia regenerate by new trees growing out of the roots of the old and from cut trees so from one seedling and one investment there can be several harvests. Swedish willows from Forgim regenerate 20 to 25 years after the first planting. And only then new seedlings have to be purchased. Using special machines that even cut the wood to wood chips the plantations can be 'harvested' every three years. Unlike crops, the fields do not

A survey of oil product demand elasticities for developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahl, Carol

1994-01-01

As more and more developing countries join the ranks of the rich they will consume both more oil and higher percentage of the lighter products. To satisfy this growing demand oil production and refinery capacity that can provide the right quantity and mix of products must be developed. In a companion piece, Dahl (1993) found the total demand for oil to be price inelastic (-0.34) and income elastic (1.32) These elasticities can give information on the total quantity of oil that might be demanded, the total amount of distillation capacity that might be needed and the overall increases in product prices that might be necessary to choke off demand growth. However, with this overall growth in product demand, the more the shift towards the lighter portion of the barrel, the more complex the refinery and the greater the demand for downstream capital. To provide information on this mix in developing countries in the coming years, this paper surveys the available work on econometric demand elasticities by oil product. (author)

Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Carl R.

2009-01-01

Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

Association of chagasic megacolon and cancer of the colon: case report and review of the literature Associação de megacólon chagásico e câncer de cólon: relato de caso e revisão da literatura

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheila Jorge Adad

2002-02-01

Full Text Available There are few descriptions of association between chagasic megacolon and colon cancer. We report a case of obstructive abdomen caused by adenocarcinoma of the left colon in chagasic megacolon. A review of the literature revealed 8 cases of this association and, analyzing together the series of findings of cancer in chagasic organomegalies, we found a frequency of 4.8% in megaesophagus and 0.1% in megacolon.Há poucas descrições de associação entre megacólon chagásico e câncer de cólon. Relatamos caso de abdômen obstrutivo por adenocarcinoma do cólon esquerdo, em megacólon chagásico. A revisão da literatura indica 8 casos desta associação e, analisando-se em conjunto as séries de levantamentos de câncer em megas chagásicos, encontra-se freqüência de 4,8% em megaesôfago e 0,1% em megacólon.

Continental integration and energy demand in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, D.J.

2004-01-01

This presentation highlighted some of the major issues regarding energy demand in the United States and continental integration. The energy markets in Canada and the United States are economically integrated with large cross-border investment. Therefore, the energy infrastructure can be significantly affected by inconsistencies between the two countries in policy, regulatory processes and fiscal regimes. The author discussed the inelasticity in the natural gas demand in the United States in the near-term, and how natural gas consumption, particularly for power generation, is greater than North America's supply capacity. New supplies such as liquefied natural gas and arctic gas are needed to meet growing demands. The role of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency was also discussed. It was emphasized that imbalances in supply and demand inevitably lead to price volatility and that high prices are a major obstacle to economic growth. tabs., figs

Residential electricity demand in Singapore

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ang, B.W.; Goh, T.N.; Liu, X.Q.

1992-01-01

Residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased at a rate of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 1990. Estimates of the long-run income and price elasticities are 1.0 and -0.35, respectively. The energy-conservation campaigns that have been launched are found to have marginal effects on consumption. A statistical analysis shows that the consumption is sensitive to small changes in climatic variables, particularly the temperature, which is closely linked to the growing diffusion of electric appliances for environmental controls. There has been a temporal increase in the ownership levels of appliances associated with increasing household incomes. However, other factors were involved since the ownership levels would also increase over time after the elimination of the income effect. A large part of the future growth in electricity demand will arise from the growing need for air-conditioning, which will lead to increasingly large seasonal variations in electricity use. (author)

Extending the bidding format to promote demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yanchao; Holzer, Jesse T.; Ferris, Michael C.

2015-01-01

We propose an extended bidding structure to allow more realistic demand characteristics and behaviors to be expressed via flexible bids. In today's ISO-run energy markets, demand bid formats are all separable over time. However, a significant and growing segment of demand can be shifted across time and therefore has no way to bid its true valuation of consumption. We propose additional bid types that allow deferrable, adjustable and storage-type loads to better express their value, and thus elicit demand response in the most natural way – via direct participation in the market. We show that the additional bid types are easily incorporated into the existing market with no technological barrier and that they preserve the market's efficiency and incentive-compatibility properties. Using real market data, we give a numerical demonstration that the extended bid format could substantially increase social welfare, and also present additional insight on storage expansion scenarios. - Highlights: • Three new bid types are proposed to enrich demand-side participation. • Time value of electricity demand can be clearly conveyed to central dispatcher. • The extended format preserves market efficiency and incentive compatibility. • Energy storage is most effective to neutralize price volatility, with a limitation.

Drivers of atmospheric evaporative demand during African droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Blakeley, S. L.; Harrison, L.; Hobbins, M.; Dewes, C.; Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.

2017-12-01

Seeking to advance the practice of famine early warning across sub-Saharan Africa we illuminate past drivers of high-impact droughts to gain a better understanding of the evaporative processes involved in drought dynamics. Atmospheric evaporative demand (ETo) is often used to estimate plant water balance and drought impacts to vegetation, and previously demonstrated linkages between precipitation, temperature, and ETo need to be better understood. This work is timely as new data streams will enable near-real-time monitoring of ETo and incorporation of ETo forecasts into seasonal outlooks for African growing seasons. For historical droughts during major growing seasons in sub-Saharan Africa, we evaluate ETo and identify main drivers for drought cases-identified based on below-normal precipitation during the wettest three months of the growing season-and contrast these with the ETo drivers that dominate in wetter years (we also consider droughts triggered by above normal ETo). Our focus is on regions of Africa where adequate precipitation is important for productive agriculture and pastoral activities and where evaporative demand might exacerbate moisture limitations. It is expected that important ETo drivers are partly connected with precipitation-related processes but that there are variations between regions and events. The goal here is to provide a generalized understanding of what aspects of evaporative demand historically have posed an additional hazard to plant stress and how precipitation outcomes are responsible for the ETo drivers. In addition, we explore whether there have been discernible changes through time in regard to ETo drivers during below-normal precipitation seasons. Upper and lower terciles of CHIRPS precipitation are used to identify anomalous dry and wet cases. The ETo dataset spans the 1980-near present period and is calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by daily temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar

Depopulation of interstitial cells of cajal in chagasic megacolon: towards tailored surgery? Depleção de células intersticiais de Cajal no megacólon chagásico: a caminho do tratamento cirúrgico individualizado?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergio Eduardo Alonso Araujo

2010-06-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mechanism of constipation in patients with Chagasic megacolon remains partially explained. In these patients, it was recently demonstrated a reduction in the population of interstitial cells of Cajal. AIM: To evaluate density of Cajal cells in the surgically resected colon of Chagasic patients in comparison to control patients, and to verify possible association between preoperative and postoperative bowel function of Chagasic patients and colonic cell count. METHOD: Sixteen patients with Chagasic megacolon were operated on. Clinical pre- and post-operative evaluation using the Cleveland Clinic Constipation Score was undertaken. Resected colons were examined. Cajal cells were identified by immunohistochemistry using anti-CD117 antibody. The mean cell number was compared to resected colons from 16 patients with non-obstructive sigmoid cancer. Association between pre-and post-operative constipation scores and cell count for megacolon patients was evaluated using the Pearson coefficient correlation test (r. RESULTS: A reduced number of Cajal cells [cells per field: 2.84 (0-6.6 vs. 9.68 (4.3-13 - pRACIONAL: A fisiopatologia da constipação intestinal nos pacientes portadores de megacólon chagásico permanece parcialmente esclarecida. Recentemente demontrou-se que nesses pacientes, o contingente de células intersticiais de Cajal está reduzido assim como ocorre em outros distúrbios funcionais gastrointestinais. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a densidade de células intersticiais de Cajal no intestino ressecado de pacientes submetidos a tratamento cirúrgico eletivo de megacólon chagásico em comparação com a observada no cólon de pacientes controles, e verificar possível associação entre o grau de constipação intestinal de pacientes com megacólon chagásico no pré e no pós-operatório e o grau de despopulação de células de Cajal. MÉTODO: Dezesseis pacientes com megacólon chagásico foram operados. A avaliação da fun

World oil supply and demand'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

Asia-Pacific region's oil demand growth strains refining capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1993-01-01

The rapidly industrializing Asia-Pacific region has become a stand-alone economic force and the world's growth market for oil. Japan remains the region's premier economic powerhouse but no longer its only one. And Asia-Pacific economic fortunes have decoupled from the more-mature economies of Europe and the U.S. The East-West Center, Honolulu, in January projected Asia-Pacific average oil demand growth of 3.6%/year through 1999, nearly double what most economists expect for oil demand growth worldwide. Demand reached 14.5 million b/d in 1992, up 862,000 b/d from 1991. East-West Center analysts project demand of 16.4 million b/d in 1995 and 19.1 million b/d by 2000. Not all analysts expect such rapid growth for the region. Edward N. Krapels, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc., Washington, D.C., told a seminar in Houston during March that demand in Southeast Asia will grow at an average of 500,000 b/d/year. The paper discusses economic strength; regional demand; the pressure on refining; the shortfall seen; an opposing view from the Energy Security Analysis; and construction activity

Ambient levels and temporal variations of PM2.5 and PM10 at a residential site in the mega-city, Nanjing, in the western Yangtze River Delta, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Guo F; Yuan, Si Y; Xie, Yu N; Xia, Si J; Li, Li; Yao, Yu K; Qiao, Yue Z; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Qiu Y; Ding, Ai J; Li, Bin; Wu, Hai S

2014-01-01

The deteriorating air quality in eastern China including the Yangtze River Delta is attracting growing public concern. In this study, we measured the ambient PM10 and fine PM2.5 in the mega-city, Nanjing at four different times. The 24-h average PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations were 0.033-0.234 and 0.042-0.328 mg/m(3), respectively. The daily PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were 2.9 (2.7-3.2, at 95% confidence interval) and 4.2 (3.8-4.6) times the WHO air quality guidelines of 0.025 mg/m(3) for PM2.5 and 0.050 mg/m(3) for PM10, respectively, which indicated serious air pollution in the city. There was no obvious weekend effect. The highest PM10 pollution occurred in the wintertime, with higher PM2.5 loadings in the winter and summer. PM2.5 was correlated significantly with PM10 and the average mass fraction of PM2.5 in PM10 was about 72.5%. This fraction varied during different sampling periods, with the lowest PM2.5 fraction in the spring but minor differences among the other three seasons.

The perspective of organic wine in Brazil – trends, demands and production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Araujo Marcos Vinícius

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This work aims to analyze the productive reality and propose a panorama for the Brazilian organic wine production, from the perspective of producers, representatives of the sector, market and consumers, thus seeking to highlight the market perspectives and adequacy to the consumers' aspirations. This production that aims to meet a growing demand for sustainable products, which include organic, biodynamic and natural foods, combined with the growing Brazilian tendency to consume better quality wines. To prosecute this study, an exploratory research was developed, interviewing twenty consumers, one intermediary, one representative of the sector and four wineries. The data were analyzed crossing the information collected with these actors and bring out key contents. The results show that production is not aligned with consumer demand that it is still necessary to review the information made available to consumers, in addition to making it clearer, other values could be aggregated to those products or better communicated. On this way, it is possible to conclude that an intermediate product between organic and conventional, which has sustainable practices in its production could meet the current demand, so that in the future it can produce an organic product that corresponds to the consumer's demand.

Megacólon tóxico fatal por cytomegalovirus em paciente com retocolite ulcerativa idiopática: relato de caso e revisão de literatura Fatal toxic megacolon due to cytomegalovirosis in a patient with ulcerative colitis: case report and review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sérgio Ossamu IOSHII

2002-04-01

Full Text Available Racional - O megacólon tóxico é complicação grave e pouco freqüente na retocolite ulcerativa idiopática. Ocorre, geralmente, em pacientes cuja doença ativa é resistente ao tratamento clínico e, em algumas situações, o fator desencadeante é desconhecido. A infecção pelo cytomelogalovirus em seres humanos em geral é evento subclínico; entretanto, em pacientes imunocomprometidos a primoinfecção ou mesmo a reativação de infecção latente pode ter amplas repercussões clínicas, uma das quais o desencadeamento de megacólon tóxico. Objetivo - Descrever um caso de megacólon tóxico fatal por cytomegalovirose em paciente com retocolite ulcerativa idiopática. Paciente - Masculino, 38 anos, com clínica de diarréia e perda ponderal cuja investigação mostrou tratar-se de retocolite ulcerativa idiopática e para a qual foi instituída terapêutica imunossupressora vigorosa. Resultados - Evoluiu com quadro clínico de megacólon tóxico, sendo submetido a colectomia total. Complicações clínicas culminaram no óbito pós-operatório e o estudo anatomopatológico do cólon revelou doença ativa, associada a ulcerações confluentes na base das quais foram observadas células com alterações características da cytomegalovirose. Conclusão - A cytomegalovirose deve ser considerada como um dos agentes causadores de megacólon tóxico em retocolite ulcerativa.Background - The toxic megacolon is a rare and severe complication of ulcerative colitis. In general it complicates patients with active colitis that are resistant to clinical treatment and, in some cases, the developing factor is unknown. Cytomegalovirus infection in humans in general is a subclinical condition. However, in patients with immunodeficiency the primary infection or the reactivation of latent infection could have enormous clinical effects. One of these effects is the toxic megacolon. Aim - To report a case of fatal toxic megacólon due to cytomegalovirosis in a

Sulfate Formation Enhanced by a Cocktail of High NOx, SO2, Particulate Matter, and Droplet pH during Haze-Fog Events in Megacities in China: An Observation-Based Modeling Investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Jian; Yuan, Zibing; Griffith, Stephen M; Yu, Xin; Lau, Alexis K H; Yu, Jian Zhen

2016-07-19

In recent years in a few Chinese megacities, fog events lasting one to a few days have been frequently associated with high levels of aerosol loading characterized by high sulfate (as high as 30 μg m(-3)), therefore termed as haze-fog events. The concomitant pollution characteristics include high gas-phase mixing ratios of SO2 (up to 71 ppbv) and NO2 (up to 69 ppbv), high aqueous phase pH (5-6), and smaller fog droplets (as low as 2 μm), resulting from intense emissions from fossil fuel combustion and construction activities supplying abundant Ca(2+). In this work, we use an observation-based model for secondary inorganic aerosols (OBM-SIA) to simulate sulfate formation pathways under conditions of haze-fog events encountered in Chinese megacities. The OBM analysis has identified, at a typical haze-fogwater pH of 5.6, the most important pathway to be oxidation of S(IV) by dissolved NO2, followed by the heterogeneous reaction of SO2 on the aerosol surface. The aqueous phase oxidation of S(IV) by H2O2 is a very minor formation pathway as a result of the high NOx conditions suppressing H2O2 formation. The model results indicate that the unique cocktail of high fogwater pH, high concentrations of NO2, SO2, and PM, and small fog droplets are capable of greatly enhancing sulfate formation. Such haze-fog conditions could lead to rapid sulfate production at night and subsequently high PM2.5 in the morning when the fog evaporates. Sulfate formation is simulated to be highly sensitive to fogwater pH, PM, and precursor gases NO2 and SO2. Such insights on major contributing factors imply that reduction of road dust and NOx emissions could lessen PM2.5 loadings in Chinese megacities during fog events.

Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Diesel Demand in Korea

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Seung-Hoon Yoo

2012-11-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the demand function for diesel in Korea covering the period 1986–2011. The short-run and long-run elasticities of diesel demand with respect to price and income are empirically examined using a co-integration and error-correction model. The short-run and long-run price elasticities are estimated to be −0.357 and −0.547, respectively. The short-run and long-run income elasticities are computed to be 1.589 and 1.478, respectively. Thus, diesel demand is relatively inelastic to price change and elastic to income change in both the short-run and long-run. Therefore, a demand-side management through raising the price of diesel will be ineffective and tightening the regulation of using diesel more efficiently appears to be more effective in Korea. The demand for diesel is expected to continuously increase as the economy grows.

Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltony, M.N.

1998-01-01

The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

Physiological demands of downhill mountain biking.

Science.gov (United States)

Burr, Jamie F; Drury, C Taylor; Ivey, Adam C; Warburton, Darren E R

2012-12-01

Mountain biking is a popular recreational pursuit and the physiological demands of cross-country style riding have been well documented. However, little is known regarding the growing discipline of gravity-assisted downhill cycling. We characterised the physiological demands of downhill mountain biking under typical riding conditions. Riding oxygen consumption (VO(2)) and heart rate (HR) were measured on 11 male and eight female experienced downhill cyclists and compared with data during a standardised incremental to maximum (VO(2max)) exercise test. The mean VO(2) while riding was 23.1 ± 6.9 ml · kg(-1) · min(-1) or 52 ± 14% of VO(2max) with corresponding heart rates of 146 ± 11 bpm (80 ± 6% HRmax). Over 65% of the ride was in a zone at or above an intensity level associated with improvements in health-related fitness. However, the participants' heart rates and ratings of perceived exertion were artificially inflated in comparison with the actual metabolic demands of the downhill ride. Substantial muscular fatigue was evident in grip strength, which decreased 5.4 ± 9.4 kg (5.5 ± 11.2%, P = 0.03) post-ride. Participation in downhill mountain biking is associated with significant physiological demands, which are in a range associated with beneficial effects on health-related fitness.

The long-term supply/demand trend of world energy and the current oil situation in the Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okamoto, Hiroyuki

1996-01-01

Total world primary energy consumption excluding the FSU increased by 2.9% in 1995, which is somewhat above the 10 year average rate of 2.4%. This reflected strong economic growth in most parts of the world. The increase in demand confirmed the recovery of the link between the economic growth and consumption of primary energy, which broke down in the period of oil crises. Oil demand in the Asian Emerging Market Economies has continued to be very strong. Oil demand has doubled in a decade in this region and is now one sixth of world consumption. Malaysia was the fastest growing oil market in the world in 1995 at 15.5%. In volume terms, S. Korea grew the most in the world by 170,000 b/d, closely followed by China and India. Because of the fast growing oil demand, many energy economists expect a tight supply situation in the Asian oil market in the early 21st Century. However, recent technological developments would be able to supply crude oil appropriate for an increase in oil demand. (author)

Effects of Nurses' Perceptions of Actual and Demanded Competence on Turnover Intentions.

Science.gov (United States)

Takase, Miyuki; Yamamoto, Masako; Sato, Yoko; Imai, Takiko; Kawamoto, Mitsuko

2017-10-01

With the growing focus on continuous professional development, demands placed on nurses to uphold nursing competence have been increasing. This study examined how nurses with different lengths of clinical experience perceived the relationship between their actual competence and the competence they felt was demanded of them, and how this relationship was related to their turnover intentions. Survey questionnaires were distributed to 1,377 nurses, of whom 765 returned usable completed forms. The results showed that across all the groups of clinical experience, nurses perceived the demanded competence levels to be higher than their actual competence levels. However, turnover intentions were not related to nurses' perceptions of demanded competence and were negatively related to perceptions of actual competence. The levels of competence demanded should not be considered as threats for nurses. Improving nurses' competence may reduce their turnover intentions.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASING DEMAND FOR ENERGY

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Perticas Diana

2012-07-01

Full Text Available During human society’s development on large geographical areas, a series of cultural systems have appeared and have determined a certain approach concerning the environment and social relations. These systems of thought persist even today and they are strongly influenced by individuals’ thinking and approaches in that society, thing that requires a specific approach for the implementation of these relatively new concepts (e.g. sustainable development, pollution, ecological approaches on social life. Furthermore, the continuous growth of the demand for energy in the world is seen as an alarm. Between 1970 and 1997 world energy consumption has almost doubled and it is projected to grow by about 57% during 2004-2030 and the thing which should be mentioned is that with the increasing energy demand, pollution levels will increase too. But we must not forget that electric and thermal power represent one of the basic needs of mankind, and when the fulfilment of this need started to affect the climate and implicitly human health this problem turned into a hardly manageable one. We must not forget that the world’s population is growing rapidly and the level of pollution per capita increased we might even say in direct proportion. In many cases, increased pollution has its explanation in the growing number of individuals at global level and also the increasing needs, desires, aspirations, standard of living, of these. This paper intends to objectively analyse the interconnections that arise between the environment and the growth of the demand for energy, emphasizing the devastating effects of pollution created by burning fossil fuels in order to obtain electric and thermal power as well as the current and future possibilities for the replacement of these energy reserves with renewable energy reserves. The whole analysis will be accompanied by case studies and will follow strictly imposed goals by sustainable development.

Demand for mini cars and large cars; decay effects, and gasoline demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonilla, David; Schmitz, Klaus E.; Akisawa, Atsushi

2012-01-01

This article explains why: (a) consumers underinvest in new car fuel economy by opting to buy large vehicles; (b) macro shifts in vehicle classes have occurred in the last decades; and how (c) the effects of vehicle fuel economy and shifts in vehicle type influence the growth path of gasoline demand, which is the key to designing effective energy efficiency goals for transport. From 2008, 1.9 EXJ (Exajoules) of energy were consumed in Japan by private vehicles producing 124 MtCO 2 emissions. For the period 1980 to 2008, we estimated: (1) gasoline demand for three vehicle sizes; (2) vehicle sales; (3) new car fuel economy changes (the ‘real’ technical change); and (4) vehicle stocks. Using a data sample for 1980–2008 we found that: (a) in the short term consumers buy fuel economy, that is sales of mini and small cars increase, but this is not sustained in the long term: and (b) consumers increasingly traded in their cars for larger cars. A further finding was that gasoline demand is projected to increase to 2.3 EXJ by 2035, even with a growing number of mini cars. The policy implication is clear: Japan’s policy to reduce oil dependency to 80% by 2030 is in peril as long as buyers prefer larger cars and drive ever longer distances.

Future land-use related water demand in California

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Specific net present value: an improved method for assessing modularisation costs in water services with growing demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Maurer, M

2009-05-01

A specific net present value (SNPV) approach is introduced as a criterion in economic engineering decisions. The SNPV expresses average costs, including the growth rate and plant utilisation over the planning horizon, factors that are excluded from a standard net present value approach. The use of SNPV favours alternatives that are cheaper per service unit and are therefore closer to the costs that a user has to cover. It also shows that demand growth has a similar influence on average costs as an economy of scale. In a high growth scenario, solutions providing less idle capacity can have higher present value costs and still be economically favourable. The SNPV approach is applied in two examples to calculate acceptable additional costs for modularisation and comparable costs for on-site treatment (OST) as an extreme form of modularisation. The calculations show that: (i) the SNPV approach is suitable for quantifying the comparable costs of an OST system in a different scenario; (ii) small systems with projected high demand growth rates and high real interest rates are the most probable entry market for OST water treatment systems; (iii) operating expenses are currently the main economic weakness of membrane-based wastewater OST systems; and (iv) when high growth in demand is expected, up to 100% can be additionally invested in modularisation and staging the expansion of a treatment plant.

Fruit-Growing in Latvia – Industry and Science

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Kaufmane Edīte

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In all times, fruit trees for family use have been grown at Latvian farms. Yet these fruits obtained market value only after the land ownership reform in 19th century. This facilitated rapid area increase of different fruit crops, allowing supply with fruits not only the local market, but also for export to the largest cities of Russia. Especially fast development of fruit-growing was observed during the first independent republic (1919–1940. The demand for planting material increased, and plants were imported from Western Europe. Choice of unsuitable cultivars and rootstocks was the main reason of the massive orchard area loss during the following severe winters. After the Second World War, the Soviet powers supported only the establishment of large orchards for processing needs, 200-300 ha, which were unsuitable for the Latvian climate and terrain. At the same time, numbers of allotment gardens rapidly increased and part of their produce was sold also on the market. After regaining of independence and private property, interest in fresh fruit and berry production for market, as well as processing, renewed. It was hindered by lack of continuity in experience and knowledge. Diversity of terrain, soils and climate all demand considerate choice of suitable orchard location and cultivars. Direct use of foreign experience often led to failure. At present, development of the fruit industry is most of all hindered by lack of qualified specialists of different levels, which does not allow to establish an appropriate consulting system. Cooperation of growers for easier marketing also is developing too slowly. Insufficient economic and market research does not allow to balance the demand with increase of plantation area, especially for large-scale processing and export, so strategic guidance of the fruit industry is not possible. Development of fruit-growing is hindered also by a lack of continuous long-term support to horticultural science. As a

Meeting increased demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Blair, Andrew

2004-07-01

New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

Non-OPEC oil supply gains to outpace demand in 1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1997-01-01

Rising oil supplies in 1997 will relax some of the market tightness that drove up crude prices last year. Worldwide demand for petroleum products in 1996 rose faster than anticipated and faster than supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This increased demand for OPEC oil and pushed up prices for crude. At year end, the world export price of crude was up more than 25% from the same period a year earlier. Market conditions will change in 1997. While worldwide economic growth will continue to boost demand for energy and petroleum, non-OPEC petroleum supply will grow even more. Increases in North Sea and Latin American production will help boost non-OPEC output by 1.9 million b/d. And revenues from 1996 production gains will make additional investment possible in exploration and production. The paper discusses world economic growth, world oil demand, worldwide supply, supply outlook, prices and international drilling

What is demand response? Contributing to secure security-of-supply at the electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grenaa Jensen, Stine; Skytte, Klaus; Togeby, Mikael

2004-01-01

There is a common understanding that demand response can reduce the total costs of electricity reliability. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where high spot prices in peak periods and blackouts have recently been seen. It is not easy from the existing literature to find a common definition of demands response. Often the term demand response is used broadly without looking at the time dimension. However, it does not make sense to talk about demand response without talking about when, for how long the energy is used or saved, and at which costs. This paper surveys these subjects and set up a systematic grouping of the different characteristics of demand response. It especially looks at the time dimension. (au)

Úlceras em megacólons chagásicos operados na urgência e eletivamente Ulcerations in Chagas' megacolon operated at urgency and electively

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Augusto Diogo-Filho

2006-12-01

Full Text Available RACIONAL: O megacólon é uma doença freqüente no nosso meio e abordado na urgência pelas suas complicações como fecalomas, volvos e perfurações. As úlceras de estases nos megacólons contribuem como prováveis sítios de perfurações OBJETIVO: Comparar as freqüências de úlceras de decúbito em megacólons chagásicos operados na urgência, por volvo e fecaloma, e eletivamente, objetivando melhor conduta cirúrgica na urgência MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Analisaram-se os laudos de 356 exames anatomopatológicos de ressecções colônicas de pacientes operados por megacólon chagásico na urgência (102 casos; 29% e eletivamente (254 casos; 71%, no período de 1980 a 2000. As indicações cirúrgicas de urgência foram atribuídas a volvo (71 casos; 69,6%, fecaloma (25 casos; 24,5%, abdome agudo perfurativo após sondagem retal ou sigmoidoscopia (6 casos; 5,9%. Compararam-se as freqüências de úlceras nos dois grupos de peças cirúrgicas, com a utilização do teste do qui-quadrado RESULTADOS: Nos laudos das peças cirúrgicas obtidas nas cirurgias de urgência, constatou-se o registro de úlceras em 26 casos (25,5%; nas peças de ressecções eletivas verificaram-se úlceras em 21 casos (8,25%. A diferença observada foi estatisticamente significante. A comparação dos grupos de volvo, fecaloma e volvo com fecaloma, em separado com o grupo das cirurgias eletivas, evidenciou diferenças significantes em relação ao volvo e ao fecaloma CONCLUSÃO: A freqüência muito maior de úlceras nos megas operados em caráter de urgência enfatiza a necessidade da ressecção imediata do cólon sigmóide, ao invés da conduta conservadora de simples colostomia descompressiva, mesmo naquelas laparotomias exploradoras em que o exame macroscópico do sigmóide não mostre sinais de necrose. Desta forma, deve-se prevenir a ocorrência de perfuração do megacólon no pós-operatório mediato, com conseqüências usualmente graves.BACKGROUD: The

Seasonal variability and source apportionment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs in the Paris megacity (France

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A. Baudic

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Within the framework of air quality studies at the megacity scale, highly time-resolved volatile organic compound (C2–C8 measurements were performed in downtown Paris (urban background sites from January to November 2010. This unique dataset included non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs and aromatic/oxygenated species (OVOCs measured by a GC-FID (gas chromatograph with a flame ionization detector and a PTR-MS (proton transfer reaction – mass spectrometer, respectively. This study presents the seasonal variability of atmospheric VOCs being monitored in the French megacity and their various associated emission sources. Clear seasonal and diurnal patterns differed from one VOC to another as the result of their different origins and the influence of environmental parameters (solar radiation, temperature. Source apportionment (SA was comprehensively conducted using a multivariate mathematical receptor modeling. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's positive matrix factorization tool (US EPA, PMF was used to apportion and quantify ambient VOC concentrations into six different sources. The modeled source profiles were identified from near-field observations (measurements from three distinct emission sources: inside a highway tunnel, at a fireplace and from a domestic gas flue, hence with a specific focus on road traffic, wood-burning activities and natural gas emissions and hydrocarbon profiles reported in the literature. The reconstructed VOC sources were cross validated using independent tracers such as inorganic gases (NO, NO2, CO, black carbon (BC and meteorological data (temperature. The largest contributors to the predicted VOC concentrations were traffic-related activities (including motor vehicle exhaust, 15 % of the total mass on the annual average, and evaporative sources, 10 %, with the remaining emissions from natural gas and background (23 %, solvent use (20 %, wood-burning (18 % and a biogenic source (15 %. An

Natural ingredients for darker skin types: growing options for hyperpigmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexis, Andrew F; Blackcloud, Paul

2013-09-01

Dyschromia is one of the most common dermatological concerns in patients with darker skin.1 Disorders of hyperpigmentation, including postinflammatory hyperpigmentation, melasma, solar lentigines, and miscellaneous causes of facial hyperpigmentation, are the most frequently treated dyschromias and can have a considerable psychosocial impact. Given the high prevalence of hyperpigmentation and the considerable demand for an even complexion, newer treatment options for hyperpigmentation are of growing interest among consumers, manufacturers, and dermatologists. Blinded, controlled studies demonstrating skin lightening effects in soy, niacinamide, n-acetylglucosamine, licorice extract, arbutin, vitamin c, kojic acid, emblica extract, lignin peroxidase, and glutathione have led to the development of a growing list of non-prescription skin care products that can be incorporated (mostly as adjuncts) in the management of hyperpigmentation.

Balancing needs. Global trends in uranium production and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolet, J.P.; Underhill, D.

1998-01-01

In many countries, uranium is a major energy resource, fueling nuclear power plants that collectively generate about 17% of the world's electricity. With global demand for energy especially electricity projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the price and availability of all energy sources, including uranium, are key components in the process of energy planning and decision-making. Particularly affecting the uranium market were changing projections about nuclear power's growth and the consequent demand for nuclear fuel; the emergence of a more integrated free market system including former centrally planned economies; and the emergence into the civilian market of uranium released from dismantled nuclear weapons. All these factors contributed to uncertainties in the commercial uranium market that raised questions about future fuel supplies for nuclear power plants. Signs today indicate that the situation is changing. The world uranium market is moving towards a more balanced relationship between supply and demand

Co-Planning of Demand Response and Distributed Generators in an Active Distribution Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Yu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The integration of renewables is fast-growing, in light of smart grid technology development. As a result, the uncertain nature of renewables and load demand poses significant technical challenges to distribution network (DN daily operation. To alleviate such issues, price-sensitive demand response and distributed generators can be coordinated to accommodate the renewable energy. However, the investment cost for demand response facilities, i.e., load control switch and advanced metering infrastructure, cannot be ignored, especially when the responsive demand is large. In this paper, an optimal coordinated investment for distributed generator and demand response facilities is proposed, based on a linearized, price-elastic demand response model. To hedge against the uncertainties of renewables and load demand, a two-stage robust investment scheme is proposed, where the investment decisions are optimized in the first stage, and the demand response participation with the coordination of distributed generators is adjusted in the second stage. Simulations on the modified IEEE 33-node and 123-node DN demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Modelling and evaluating municipal solid waste management strategies in a mega-city: the case of Ho Chi Minh City.

Science.gov (United States)

ThiKimOanh, Le; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M; van Buuren, Joost Cl; van der Vorst, Jack Gaj; Rulkens, Wim H

2015-04-01

Ho Chi Minh City is a large city that will become a mega-city in the near future. The city struggles with a rapidly increasing flow of municipal solid waste and a foreseeable scarcity of land to continue landfilling, the main treatment of municipal solid waste up to now. Therefore, additional municipal solid waste treatment technologies are needed. The objective of this article is to support decision-making towards more sustainable and cost-effective municipal solid waste strategies in developing countries, in particular Vietnam. A quantitative decision support model is developed to optimise the distribution of municipal solid waste from population areas to treatment plants, the treatment technologies and their capacities for the near future given available infrastructure and cost factors. © The Author(s) 2015.

Smart Grid as advanced technology enabler of demand response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gellings, C.W.; Samotyj, M. [Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)

2013-11-15

Numerous papers and articles presented worldwide at different conferences and meetings have already covered the goals, objectives, architecture, and business plans of Smart Grid. The number of electric utilities worldwide has followed up with demonstration and deployment efforts. Our initial assumptions and expectations of Smart Grid functionality have been confirmed. We have indicated that Smart Grid will fulfill the following goals: enhance customer service, improve operational efficiency, enhance demand response and load control, transform customer energy use behavior, and support new utility business models. For the purpose of this paper, we shall focus on which of those above-mentioned Smart Grid functionalities are going to facilitate the ever-growing need for enhanced demand response and load control.

An energy service company's perspective on demand-side management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bullock, C.G.

1993-01-01

In 1985, Massachusetts Electric Company held a bid for demand reduction to be supplied by energy service companies (ESCOs). It was one of the first demand-side management (DSM) bidding programs held in the United States. Since then, several DSM auctions have been held. Many people expected DSM bidding to be a key component in integrated resource planning. Many observed similarities with supply side bidding, and expected DSM bidding to grow according. Today, more than $2 billion annually is being spent by utilities on DSM programs. Less than $100 million is spent with ESCOs. This chapter explores some of the reasons for the current situation and suggests some alternatives, which could benefit all of the players

China's Coal: Demand, Constraints, and Externalities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aden, Nathaniel; Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina

2009-07-01

future coal consumption is likely to come from the burgeoning coal-liquefaction and chemicals industries. If coal to chemicals capacity reaches 70 million tonnes and coal-to-liquids capacity reaches 60 million tonnes, coal feedstock requirements would add an additional 450 million tonnes by 2025. Even with more efficient growth among these drivers, China's annual coal demand is expected to reach 3.9 to 4.3 billion tonnes by 2025. Central government support for nuclear and renewable energy has not reversed China's growing dependence on coal for primary energy. Substitution is a matter of scale: offsetting one year of recent coal demand growth of 200 million tonnes would require 107 billion cubic meters of natural gas (compared to 2007 growth of 13 BCM), 48 GW of nuclear (compared to 2007 growth of 2 GW), or 86 GW of hydropower capacity (compared to 2007 growth of 16 GW). Ongoing dependence on coal reduces China's ability to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions growth. If coal demand remains on a high growth path, carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion alone would exceed total US energy-related carbon emissions by 2010. Within China's coal-dominated energy system, domestic transportation has emerged as the largest bottleneck for coal industry growth and is likely to remain a constraint to further expansion. China has a low proportion of high-quality reserves, but is producing its best coal first. Declining quality will further strain production and transport capacity. Furthermore, transporting coal to users has overloaded the train system and dramatically increased truck use, raising transportation oil demand. Growing international imports have helped to offset domestic transport bottlenecks. In the long term, import demand is likely to exceed 200 million tonnes by 2025, significantly impacting regional markets.

Soviet Union oil sector outlook grows bleaker still

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the outlook for the U.S.S.R's oil sector which grows increasingly bleak and with it prospects for the Soviet economy. Plunging Soviet oil production and exports have analysts revising near term oil price outlooks, referring to the Soviet oil sector's self-destructing and Soviet oil production in a freefall. County NatWest, Washington, citing likely drops in Soviet oil production and exports (OGJ, Aug. 5, p. 16), has jumped its projected second half spot price for West Texas intermediate crude by about $2 to $22-23/bbl. Smith Barney, New York, forecasts WTI postings at $24-25/bbl this winter, largely because of seasonally strong world oil demand and the continued collapse in Soviet oil production. It estimates the call on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at more than 25 million b/d in first quarter 1992. That would be the highest level of demand for OPEC oil since 1980, Smith Barney noted

Influence Of Corporate Social Responsibility On Hotel Demand

OpenAIRE

Claudia Sevilla-Sevilla; Maria Dolores Reina-Paz; Ainhoa Rodriguez-Oromendia

2014-01-01

The embrace of corporate social responsibility (CSR) by the Spanish hospitality industry is still in the early stages. Few hotel companies publish sustainability reports, although the number of tourism and distribution channel organizations (tour operators, online travel agencies, etc.) incorporating specific aspects of CSR is growing each year. In this paper, the authors analyze whether CSR has a direct effect on end-consumer demand in Spain, identifying those aspects that customers evaluate...

Demand for Canadian gas in the U.S. market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, L.H.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that Canadian natural gas exports to the United States commenced in 1957 and have now reached 1.3 Tcf per year. Natural gas consumption in the united States is currently 25% of the total energy consumption, which is expected t grow considerably by the year 2000. National security and environmental concerns will make natural gas an increasingly desirable fuel, and U.S. domestic gas reserves will be insufficient to supply the demand growth. Consequently, there is a growing opportunity for increased sales of Canadian natural gas to the united States provided economic, regulatory and political situations do not deprive U.S. consumers of the opportunity to utilize this source of the world's cleanest fuel

Impact of Uncoordinated Plug-in Electric Vehicle Charging on Residential Power Demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-01-22

Electrification of transport offers opportunities to increase energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and improve local air quality. Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are creating new connections between the transportation and electric sectors, and PEV charging will create opportunities and challenges in a system of growing complexity. Here, I use highly resolved models of residential power demand and PEV use to assess the impact of uncoordinated in-home PEV charging on residential power demand. While the increase in aggregate demand might be minimal even for high levels of PEV adoption, uncoordinated PEV charging could significantly change the shape of the aggregate residential demand, with impacts for electricity infrastructure, even at low adoption levels. Clustering effects in vehicle adoption at the local level might lead to high PEV concentrations even if overall adoption remains low, significantly increasing peak demand and requiring upgrades to the electricity distribution infrastructure. This effect is exacerbated when adopting higher in-home power charging.

Impact of uncoordinated plug-in electric vehicle charging on residential power demand

Science.gov (United States)

Muratori, Matteo

2018-03-01

Electrification of transport offers opportunities to increase energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and improve local air quality. Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are creating new connections between the transportation and electric sectors, and PEV charging will create opportunities and challenges in a system of growing complexity. Here, I use highly resolved models of residential power demand and PEV use to assess the impact of uncoordinated in-home PEV charging on residential power demand. While the increase in aggregate demand might be minimal even for high levels of PEV adoption, uncoordinated PEV charging could significantly change the shape of the aggregate residential demand, with impacts for electricity infrastructure, even at low adoption levels. Clustering effects in vehicle adoption at the local level might lead to high PEV concentrations even if overall adoption remains low, significantly increasing peak demand and requiring upgrades to the electricity distribution infrastructure. This effect is exacerbated when adopting higher in-home power charging.

Fast food consumption and its associations with obesity and hypertension among children: results from the baseline data of the Childhood Obesity Study in China Mega-cities

OpenAIRE

Zhao, Yaling; Wang, Liang; Xue, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wang, Youfa

2017-01-01

Background China has seen rapid increase in obesity and hypertension prevalence and fast food consumption over the past decade. We examined status and risk factors for Western- and Chinese fast food consumption and their associations with health outcomes in Chinese children, and examined how maternal factors were associated with child health outcomes. Methods Data of 1626 students aged 7–16 (11.6 ± 2.0) years and their parents in four mega-cities across China (Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, and ...

Incremental health expenditure and lost days of normal activity for individuals with mental disorders: results from the São Paulo Megacity Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiavegatto Filho, Alexandre Dias Porto; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Campino, Antonio Carlos Coelho; Malik, Ana Maria; Viana, Maria Carmen; Andrade, Laura Helena

2015-08-05

With the recent increase in the prevalence of mental disorders in developing countries, there is a growing interest in the study of its consequences. We examined the association of depression, anxiety and any mental disorders with incremental health expenditure, i.e. the linear increase in health expenditure associated with mental disorders, and lost days of normal activity. We analyzed the results from a representative sample survey of residents of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (n = 2,920; São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey), part of the World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative, coordinated by the World Health Organization and performed in 28 countries. The instrument used for obtaining the individual results, including the assessment of mental disorders, was the WMH version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 (WMH-CIDI 3.0) that generates psychiatric diagnoses according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria. Statistical analyses were performed by multilevel generalized least squares (GLS) regression models. Sociodemographic determinants such as income, age, education and marital status were included as controls. Depression, anxiety and any mental disorders were consistently associated with both incremental health expenditure and missing days of normal activity. Depression was associated with an incremental annual expenditure of R$308.28 (95% CI: R$194.05-R$422.50), or US$252.48 in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Anxiety and any mental disorders were associated with a lower, but also statistically significant, incremental annual expenditure (R$177.82, 95% CI: 79.68-275.97; and R$180.52, 95% CI: 91.13-269.92, or US$145.64 and US$147.85 in terms of PPP, respectively). Most of the incremental health costs associated with mental disorders came from medications. Depression was independently associated with higher incremental health expenditure than the two most prevalent chronic

The impact of attitudes and perceptions on travel mode choice and car ownership in a Chinese megacity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

He, Sylvia Y.; Thøgersen, John

2017-01-01

The objective of this research is to understand intentions to buy a car and how car-ownership, together with other personal, situational and attitudinal factors, influences travel mode choice in a Chinese megacity. A survey was carried out in Guangzhou, China to examine respondents’ car ownership...... and travel mode perceptions and choices, as well as personal and situational characteristics. A quota sampling procedure was used to select members of three different groups: car owners; no car but planning to buy one in the next 5 years – car intenders; and no car and not planning to buy one. We find...... that car ownership is the most important among included predictors of travel mode choice, which also depend on other personal and situational factors, but only indirectly by attitudinal factors. However, attitudinal factors have a strong impact on the intention to buy a car, while controlling for other...

Growing population causes of unemployment.

Science.gov (United States)

1995-01-01

At the March, 1995, International Meeting on Population and Social Development in Copenhagen, during the session on unemployment, underemployment, and population it was stated that the problem of employment was the extent to which a nation's labor supply was not matched by labor demand or job opportunities. Population was thus a supply factor, and the country's economic situation was a demand factor. The demographic variables that were considered important in the supply of labor were: a) the size and rate of growth of the population, which was a function of the birth rate, the death rate, and migration; and b) the age structure of the population, which was also a product of the rate of growth of the population and its distribution. An imbalance between the supply of labor and the demand for it gave rise to unemployment and underemployment. The vicious cycle generated by a high dependency burden associated with a young age-structure led to low savings and investments, which in turn led to low economic growth and a low standard of living. This produced high fertility rates, which in turn heightened the dependency burden perpetuating the cycle. This vicious cycle could be broken at only two points: at the high fertility stage, primarily by introducing family planning programs; and at the stage of low economic growth, by adopting policies to accelerate economic growth. To be successful, however, both actions had to be pursued simultaneously. Numerous participants emphasized the global nature of the issue of unemployment and underemployment; the effects of international competition and restrictive trade policies on employment opportunities. The growing disparity between North and South had created a social injustice between countries. Several participants called for more humane policies that favored democracy and promoted human development, and asked for assistance to help create an enabling environment for social and economic development.

Panorama 2007: Oil Supply and Demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lescaroux, F.

2007-01-01

A new paradigm is gradually developing on the world oil market. Under extreme pressure from growing demand in emerging countries, the supply side is progressively adjusting. As the market stabilizes, prices are seeking their equilibrium. Although the WTI seems to be finding its level at about USD 60 per barrel, it is still too soon to take this price quotation as a reference. Due to the inertia in behaviours, the effects of recent trends are not all visible yet and adjustments are still underway. In this uncertain business environment, key market players have not yet finalized their strategies. (author)

Growing Chinese coal use: Dramatic resource and environmental implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shealy, Malcolm; Dorian, James P.

2010-01-01

Chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country's economy and industry expand. Coal is particularly critical for China's fast-growing power sector, generating about 80% of electricity output. Notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity, many international forecasts today underestimate their rising use in China. This paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and assumes that Chinese GDP growth to 2025 will not again approach double-digit levels. Using the scenario analysis, this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about Chinese GDP growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025, the country will likely experience much higher coal demand and emit much greater volumes of carbon dioxide than forecast by various international energy agencies. The paper also analyzes how China's domestic coal reserves may be threatened within two decades, possibly affecting long-term economic growth in China, as well as world coal prices.

The PM2.5 threshold for aerosol extinction in the Beijing megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Lingbin; Xin, Jinyuan; Liu, Zirui; Zhang, Kequan; Tang, Guiqian; Zhang, Wenyu; Wang, Yuesi

2017-10-01

Particulate pollution has remained at a high level in the megacity of Beijing in the past decade. The PM2.5, PM10, aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent(α), and PM2.5/PM10 ratio (the proportion of PM2.5 in PM10) in Beijing were 70±6 μg m-3, 128±6 μg m-3, 0.57 ± 0.05, 1.10 ± 0.08, 45 ± 4%, respectively, from 2005 to 2014. The annual means of PM concentration, AOD, α, and PM2.5/PM10 ratio decreased slightly during this decade, meanwhile PM concentration increased in the winter. Furthermore, we found there were thresholds of PM2.5 concentration for aerosol extinction. When the PM concentration was lower than a certain threshold, AOD decreased quickly with the decline of PM concentration. To make the improvement of the particle pollution more noticeable, the PM concentration should be controlled under the threshold. The annual averaged threshold is 63 μg m-3, and the threshold values reached the maximum of 74 μg m-3 in spring, ranged from 54 to 56 μg m-3 in the three other seasons. The threshold values ranged from 55 to 77 μg m-3 under other relevant factors, including air masses directions and relative humidity.

An Overview of the MILAGRO 2006 Campaign: Mexico City Emissions and their Transport and Transformation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Molina, Luisa T.; Madronich, Sasha; Gaffney, Jeffrey; Apel, Eric; de Foy, B.; Fast, Jerome D.; Ferrare, R.; Herndon, Scott C.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Lamb, Brian K.; Orsonio-Vargas, A. R.; Russell, P. B.; Schauer, James J.; Stevens, P. S.; Volkamer, Rainer M.; Zavala, Miguel A.

2010-03-25

The world’s population is projected to increase 33% during the next three decades, to 8.1 billion. Nearly all of the projected growth is expected to be concentrated in urban centers. These rapidly expanding urban regions and surrounding suburban areas are leading to the phenomenon of megacities (metropolitan areas with populations exceeding 10 million inhabitants). Well governed, densely populated settlements can reduce the need for land conversion and provide proximity to infrastructure and services. However, many urban areas experience uncontrolled sprawl and their activities are the leading cause of environmental problems. These mega-centers of human population are tied directly to increasing demands for energy and associated industrial activities and motorization that lead to more emission of pollutants into the atmosphere. Air pollution is one of the most important environmental challenges of this century. This challenge is particularly acute in the developing world where the rapid growth of megacities is producing atmospheric pollution of unprecedented severity and extent. MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local And Global Research Observations) is the first international collaborative project to examine the behavior and the export of atmospheric pollutants generated in megacities. The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) - one of the world’s largest megacities and North America’s most populous city -- was selected as the initial case study to characterize the sources and processes of emissions from the urban center and to evaluate the regional and global impacts of the Mexico City air pollution plume

Investigation on the trace elemental profile of sewage workers in Kolkata, an Indian megacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajlaxmi Basu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Background. Environmental pollution has become a global health risk. Exposure to pollutants at the work place, i.e. occupational exposure, is one of the areas that need immediate attention. The civic drainage workers are exposed to pollutants present in the wastewater they handle and most of them are toxic heavy metals. Exposure to such pollutants may be a health hazard, since it can lead to the imbalance in nutrient elements status.§Design and Methods. In the present study, profiling of trace elements in the blood of drainage worker population from an Indian megacity, Kolkata, was carried out by energy dispersive x-ray fluorescence (EDXRF and compared with the control group population of the same area. Results. The elements detected by EDXRF spectrometry include P, S, Cl, K, Fe, Cu, Zn, Se, Br, and Rb. By using ANOVA with 5% significance level, we observed significant alterations in the trace elements status, iron over loading, selenium deficiency, and in Cu-Zn ratio. Gender specific variations within the same population were also observed. Conclusions. The results indicate that the drainage workers have altered elemental profile in comparison to that of control population.

Comparisons of recent growth in actual demand, planned demand, and planned generating capacity at U. S. electric utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bopp, A.E. (James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States))

1994-12-01

During the winter of 1993, a number of U.S. electric utilities and some regional power pools discovered that current load exceeded generating capacity. Load restrictions followed, as entire regions-not just isolated utilities or even states-cut back. Was 1993 a typical, or simply a preview of the future If a preview, how did this shortage occur For a number of years, utilities, regulatory agencies, and power pools have been planning to add capacity at a much lower rate than the rate at which load has been growing. The National Electricity Reliability Council (NERC) has projected that eight of it's nine regions will have demand growth exceed capacity growth. The only region where capacity is growing faster is in the Texas Region. There are four reasons behind this shortage: excess capacity in the 1980's, disbelief in current forecasts, passage of the Clean Air act bringing stricter regulation on power plants, and the herd mentality where utilities have all delayed new plant construction.

Estimating the supply and demand for commercial heavy truck parking on interstate highways : a case study of I-81 in Virginia.

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

The increasing number of trucks traveling on Virginia highways has led to a growing demand for public rest areas and private truck stops. This study developed a methodology to determine the supply and demand for commercial heavy truck parking using I...

Nursing education in China: Meeting the global demand for quality healthcare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carol Chunfeng Wang

2016-03-01

This paper argues that the standard of nursing education in China plays a crucial role in preparing graduates to meet the health demands of China's growing population and the role that China can play into the future in the global progression of nursing. Collaboration between nursing authorities, educators, and legislators is required to support the progression of nursing worldwide.

Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management in Istanbul (MegaIST)

Science.gov (United States)

Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Kılıç, Osman; Baş, Mahmut; Khazai, Bijan; Ergün Konukcu, Betul; Emre Basmacı, Ahmet

2017-04-01

Decision makers need tools to understand the priorities and to set up benchmarks and track progress in their disaster risk reduction activities, so that they can justify their decisions and investments. In this regard, Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management (MegaIST), is developed in order to be used in disaster risk management studies, for decision makers and managers to establish right strategies and proper risk reduction actions, enhance resource management and investment decisions, set priorities, monitor progress in DRM and validate decisions taken with the aim of helping disaster oriented urban redevelopment, inform investors about risk profile of the city and providing a basis for dissemination and sharing of risk components with related stakeholders; by Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). MegaIST achieves these goals by analyzing the earthquake risk in three separate but complementary sub-categories consisting of "urban seismic risk, coping capacity and disaster risk management index" in an integrated way. MegaIST model fosters its analyses by presenting the outputs in a simple and user friendly format benefiting from GIS technology that ensures the adoptability of the model's use. Urban seismic risk analysis includes two components, namely; Physical Risk and Social Vulnerability Analysis. Physical risk analysis is based on the possible physical losses (such as building damage, casualties etc.) due to an earthquake while social vulnerability is considered as a factor that increases the results of the physical losses in correlation with the level of education, health, economic status and disaster awareness/preparedness of society. Coping capacity analysis is carried out with the aim of understanding the readiness of the Municipality to respond and recover from a disaster in Istanbul can be defined both in terms of the Municipality's operational capacities - the capacity of the

QUALITY PREMIUMS FOR AUSTRALIAN WHEAT IN THE GROWING ASIAN MARKETS

OpenAIRE

Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z.; Stanmore, Roland G.

1994-01-01

An hedonic price function is applied to Australia's wheat exports to the growing Asian markets. The values for the quality characteristics in the wheat markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand are estimated. The data base for the study is from the Australian Wheat Board shipments over the period 1984 to 1991. The sample is divided into two separate time periods to test the consistency in demand for export wheat and to trace recent trends in quality premiums. The im...

MEASURING WORKING HOURS INPUT IN VINE GROWING AT WORK ORGANIZATION BASED ON PHENOLOGICAL PHASES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J BRAZSIL

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Research was based on phenological phases of Italian Riesling, involving differences in labour and financial input for dry, optimal and wet weather. Worktime demand for certain operations in vine growing was determined with an analytic method, work day survey and We worked out alternatives for dry, optimum and wet weather on the basis of phenological phaseses. The worktime demand for the phenological phases with all their operations were analysed and planned in an itemized way based on our findings. We used them to work out the worktime demand for the given vine land for each operation. To analyse differences coming from diverse methods of cultivation and spacing, the material, operational and total costs of hand and mechanized labour were projected for 1 hectare and variance analysis was made.

Demand Driven Acquisition of E-Books in a Small Online Academic Library: Growing Pains and Assessing Gains

Science.gov (United States)

Longley, Dana H.

2016-01-01

How does a smaller, fully online academic library offer a wide and deep collection of academic level e-books to its distance learners in a sustainable and affordable way? The State University of New York (SUNY) Empire State College Online Library, with a staff of four, has used demand-driven e-book acquisitions since September 2013. Despite…

Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Hua; Liu, Yanan; Gao, Yixuan; Hao, Yu; Ma, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Kan

2017-03-01

In China, more than 80% electricity comes from coal which dominates the CO2 emissions. Residential electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in electricity infrastructure planning and energy policy designing, but it is challenging to make an accurate forecast for developing countries. This paper forecasts the provincial residential electricity consumption of China in the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) period using panel data. To overcome the limitations of widely used predication models with unreliably prior knowledge on function forms, a robust piecewise linear model in reduced form is utilized to capture the non-deterministic relationship between income and residential electricity consumption. The forecast results suggest that the growth rates of developed provinces will slow down, while the less developed will be still in fast growing. The national residential electricity demand will increase at 6.6% annually during 2016-2020, and populous provinces such as Guangdong will be the main contributors to the increments.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Assessing and evaluating urban VOC emissions in mid-latitude megacities from intensive observations in Paris and Los Angeles

Science.gov (United States)

Borbon, A.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; McKeen, S. A.; Holloway, J. S.; Gros, V.; Gaimoz, C.; Beekmann, M.; De Gouw, J. A.

2011-12-01

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) affect urban air quality and regional climate change by contributing to ozone formation and the build-up of Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). Quantification of VOC emissions is a first critical step to predict VOC environmental impacts and to design effective abatement strategies. Indeed, the quality of ozone and SOA forecasts strongly depends on an accurate knowledge of the primary VOC emissions. However, commonly used bottom-up approaches are highly uncertain due to source multiplicity (combustion processes, storage and distribution of fossil fuels, solvent use, etc.) because of numerous controlling factors (driving conditions, fuel type, temperature, radiation, etc.), and their great variability in time and space. Field observations of VOC and other trace gases can provide valuable top-down constraints to evaluate VOC emission inventories at urban scales. In addition, the implementation of emission reduction measures raises the question of the increasing importance of VOC sources other than traffic. Here, we will evaluate VOC emissions of two mid-latitude megacities in the Northern Hemisphere: the Greater Paris area (Europe) and Los Angeles (USA). In 2009 and 2010, three intensive field campaigns took place in Paris and Los Angeles in the framework of the MEGAPOLI (EU FP7) and CalNex-2010 projects, respectively. Very detailed measurements of aerosol composition and properties, and their gaseous VOC precursors were carried out at ground-based sites (urban center and suburban) and on various mobile platforms. This contribution uses a comprehensive suite of VOC measurements collected by GC-MS/FID techniques at ground-based sites in both cities by a source-receptor methodology. First, emission ratios were estimated from the observations (uncertainty of ± 20%) and compared regarding regional characteristics and European vs. Californian control policies. Then, determined emission ratios were used to assess the accuracy of up

Recent trends in nitrogen flows with urbanization in the Shanghai megacity and the effects on the water environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chen; Wang, Qinxue; Zou, Chunjing; Hayashi, Yoshitsugu; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

2015-03-01

The objectives of this study are to diagnose and prevent environmental problems that threaten urban sustainability, the impact of changes in lifestyle (diet, domestic sanitation, and motorization), and production style (agriculture, industry, and services) with the rapid urbanization on regional nitrogen (N) flows, and the water environment was quantitatively evaluated. The megacity Shanghai was chosen as a case study to investigate the temporal changes in nitrogen flow during 1980-2008 by a multidisciplinary approach (a field survey, a regional nitrogen mass balance model, input-output analysis, etc.). Although the total potential nitrogen load in Shanghai has decreased in the 2000s and water pollution problems seem to have improved, the problem has shifted and expanded to affect a wider area through the food/product chain and water/air movement. Further effective solutions that aim at material cycles are necessary and have to be implemented on a large scale.

Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

2014-01-01

With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass). - Highlights: ► Building sector final energy demand in India will grow to over five times by century end. ► Space cooling and appliance services will grow substantially in the future. ► Energy service demands will be met predominantly by electricity and gas. ► Urban centers will face huge demand for floor space and building energy services. ► Carbon tax policy will have little effect on reducing building energy demands

Energy demand and population change.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A

1981-09-01

During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.

Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

2005-01-01

Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock. Scenarios on potential reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sartori, Igor; Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway); Wachenfeldt, Bjoern Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway)

2009-05-15

A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels. (author)

Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sartori, Igor [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)], E-mail: igor.sartori@sintef.no; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway); Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)

2009-05-15

A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sartori, Igor; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen; Hestnes, Anne Grete

2009-01-01

A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

The role of brand image congruity in Iranian consumers’ demand for auto parts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naser Azad

2014-06-01

Full Text Available One of the primary issues in handling demands for auto parts in the world is to build a mutual trust between consumers and vendors. When people trust a brand, they purchase more easily and it is possible to develop market. In Iran, there is a growing interest in demand for auto parts and each year, tens of millions of auto parts are getting sold. This paper presents an empirical investigation to detect the effects of brand image on demand for auto parts. Using a sample of 202 randomly selected people who buy/sell auto parts in city of Tehran, Iran, the study determines three variables including brand strength, brand attributes and consumer trust through the implementation of structural equation modeling.

LPG consumption in the long term: supply, pricing demand with particular reference to the petrochemical sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shammas, P.

1996-01-01

Supply of LPG is forecast to grow over the next decade from the present level of 180 million t/y to about 185-190 million t/y, depending on demand in Asia which is rising rapidly and on new LPG export projects. Most of the increase in supply will come from new gas and crude oil production, from new LPG ventures, and from refineries reducing the n-butane content of motor gasoline. Pricing will remain volatile as a result of crude oil price volatility, variations in the winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and as result of competition between ethane, PPG, naphtha and condensate as ethylene cracker feedstocks. Demand for LPG in OECD countries will continue to show steady growth. The increase in demand will be more rapid in the relatively less developed OECD countries, as the trend in Spain has shown in recent years. Provided that the LPG price is competitive, demand in China, South-East Asia and the Indian sub-continent could grow beyond current projections. Consumption in these countries will depend on the installation of distribution facilities and the rate at which LPG can substitute for traditional fuels and kerosene as well as compete for limited disposable incomes. (author)

A mathematical programming model for optimizing the staff allocation in radiotherapy under uncertain demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soares Vieira, Bruno M.; Demirtas, Derya; van de Kamer, Jeroen B.; Hans, Erwin W.; van Harten, Wim

2018-01-01

As the number of people diagnosed with cancer increases, demand for radiotherapy (RT) services has been continuously growing. In RT, delays in the start of treatment have shown to increase the risk of tumor progression in various cancer types, and patients experience greater psychological distress

Megacity impacts on regional ozone formation: observations and WRF-Chem modeling for the MIRAGE-Shanghai field campaign

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Tie

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The MIRAGE-Shanghai experiment was designed to characterize the factors controlling regional air pollution near a Chinese megacity (Shanghai and was conducted during September 2009. This paper provides information on the measurements conducted for this study. In order to have some deep analysis of the measurements, a regional chemical/dynamical model (version 3 of Weather Research and Forecasting Chemical model – WRF-Chemv3 is applied for this study. The model results are intensively compared with the measurements to evaluate the model capability for calculating air pollutants in the Shanghai region, especially the chemical species related to ozone formation. The results show that the model is able to calculate the general distributions (the level and the variability of air pollutants in the Shanghai region, and the differences between the model calculation and the measurement are mostly smaller than 30%, except the calculations of HONO (nitrous acid at PD (Pudong and CO (carbon monoxide at DT (Dongtan. The main scientific focus is the study of ozone chemical formation not only in the urban area, but also on a regional scale of the surrounding area of Shanghai. The results show that during the experiment period, the ozone photochemical formation was strongly under the VOC (volatile organic compound-limited condition in the urban area of Shanghai. Moreover, the VOC-limited condition occurred not only in the city, but also in the larger regional area. There was a continuous enhancement of ozone concentrations in the downwind of the megacity of Shanghai, resulting in a significant enhancement of ozone concentrations in a very large regional area in the surrounding region of Shanghai. The sensitivity study of the model suggests that there is a threshold value for switching from VOC-limited condition to NOx (nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide-limited condition. The threshold value is strongly dependent on the emission ratio of NOx / VOCs. When the

Will the NP workforce grow in the future? New forecasts and implications for healthcare delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Auerbach, David I

2012-07-01

The nurse practitioner (NP) workforce has been a focus of considerable policy interest recently, particularly as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act may place additional demands on the healthcare professional workforce. The NP workforce has been growing rapidly in recent years, but fluctuation in enrollments in the past decades has resulted in a wide range of forecasts. To forecast the future NP workforce using a novel method that has been applied to the registered nurse and physician workforces and is robust to fluctuating enrollment trends. An age-cohort regression-based model was applied to the current and historical workforce, which was then forecasted to future years assuming stable age effects and a continuation of recent cohort trends. A total of 6798 NPs who were identified as having completed NP training in the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses between 1992 and 2008. The future workforce is projected to grow to 244,000 in 2025, an increase of 94% from 128,000 in 2008. If NPs are defined more restrictively as those who self-identify their position title as "NP," supply is projected to grow from 86,000 to 198,000 (130%) over this period. The large projected increase in NP supply is higher and more grounded than other forecasts and has several implications: NPs will likely fulfill a substantial amount of future demand for care. Furthermore, as the ratio of NPs to Nurse Practitioners to physicians will surely grow, there could be implications for quality of care and for the configuration of future care delivery systems.

Alberta's reserves 2004 and supply/demand outlook 2005-2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burrowes, A.; Marsh, R.; Ramdin, N.; Evans, C.; Kirsch, M.A.; Philp, L.; Fujda, M.; Stenson, J.; Sadler, K.; Sankey, G.; Hill, C.; Rahnama, F.; Habib, G.; MacGillivray, J.

2005-01-01

This document presents information on the state of reserves, supply, and demand for Alberta's energy resources including bitumen, crude oil, coalbed methane (CBM), conventional natural gas, natural gas liquids, sulphur, and coal. Estimates of initial reserves, remaining established reserves, and ultimate potential were also included, along with a 10-year supply and demand forecast for Alberta's energy resources. The document presents major forecast assumptions that influence Alberta's energy supply and demand. Some of the main variables affecting energy supply and demand include the global oil market, energy prices, Canadian economic performance and the economic outlook for Alberta. The development of Alberta's energy resources depends on reserve supply, costs of development, energy demands, conservation, and social, economic and environmental considerations. In 2004, raw bitumen production continued to grow and accounted for 69 per cent of Alberta's total crude oil and bitumen production. The value-added process of upgrading raw bitumen to synthetic crude oil was also expanded in 2004. Natural gas production from all sources in Alberta increased by 1 per cent compared with 2003. CBM development also increased greatly in 2004. Although it accounted for 80 per cent of the cumulative CBM production to date, it only contributed 0.5 per cent of the provincial total natural gas production. It is expected that CBM development will continue to increase in the coming years. For that reason, a separate estimate of CBM reserves was included. tabs., figs

Demand of the power industry of Russia for gas turbines: the current state and prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Filippov, S. P.; Dil'man, M. D.; Ionov, M. S.

2017-11-01

The use of gas-turbine plants (GTPs) in the power industry of Russia is analyzed. Attention is paid to microturbines and low-, medium-, high-, and superhigh-power GTPs. The efficiency of the gas-turbine plants of domestic and foreign manufacture is compared. The actual values of the installed capacity utilization factor and the corresponding efficiency values are calculated for most GTPs operating in the country. The long-term demand of the country's electric power industry for GTPs for the period until 2040 is determined. The estimates have been obtained for three basic applications of the gas turbines, viz., for replacement of the GTPs that have exhausted their lifetime, replacement of outdated gas-turbine plants at gas-and-oilburning power plants, and construction of new thermal power plants to cover the anticipated growing demand for electric power. According to the findings of the research, the main item in the structure of the demand for GTPs will be their use to replace the decommissioned steam-turbine plants, predominantly those integrated into combined-cycle plants. The priority of the reconstruction of the thermal power plants in operation over the construction of new ones is determined by the large excess of accumulated installed capacities in the country and considerable savings on capital costs using production sites with completed infrastructure. It is established that medium- and high-power GTPs will be the most in-demand plants in the electric power industry. The demand for low-power GTPs will increase at high rates. The demand for microturbines is expected to be rather great. The demand for superhigh-power plants will become quantitatively significant after 2025 and grow rapidly afterwards. The necessity of accelerated development of competitive domestic GTPs with a wide range of capacities and mastering of their series manufacture as well as production of licensed gas turbines at a high production localization level on the territory of the country

In-use vehicle emissions in China: Beijing study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliver, Hongyan H.; Gallagher, Kelly Sims (Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, MA (US)); Li, Mengliang; Qin, Kongjian; Zhang, Jianwei (China Automotive Research and Technology Center (CN)); Liu, Huan; He, Kebin (Department of Environmental Engineering and Science, Tsinghua Univ. (CN))

2009-05-01

China's economic boom in the last three decades has spurred increasing demand for transportation services and personal mobility. Consequently, vehicle population has grown rapidly since the early 1990s, especially in megacities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. As a result, mobile sources have become more conspicuous contributors to urban air pollution in Chinese cities. Tianjin was our first focus city, and the study there took us about two years to complete. Building upon the experience and partnership generated through the Tianjin study, the research team carried out the Beijing study from fall 2007–fall 2008. Beijing was chosen to be our second focus city for several reasons: it has the largest local fleet and the highest percentage of the population owning vehicles among all Chinese cities, and it has suffered from severe air pollution, partially due to the ever-growing population of on-road vehicles.

Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

2015-08-07

To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

Crop production and resource use to meet the growing demand for food, feed and fuel: opportunities and constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spiertz, J.H.J.; Ewert, F.

2009-01-01

Global food and feed demands have been projected to double in the 21st century, which will further increase the pressure on the use of land, water and nutrients. At the same time, the political decisions to support renewable energy sources are accelerating the use of biomass, including grain, sugar,

International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macintosh, Andrew; Wallace, Lailey

2009-01-01

International aviation is growing rapidly, resulting in rising aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for market measures such as emissions trading and carbon levies to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. This paper provides an overview of the science on aviation's contribution to climate change, analyses key trends in the industry since 1990, projects international civil aviation emissions to 2025 and analyses the emission intensity improvements that are necessary to offset rising international demand. The findings suggest international aviation carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 (from 416 Mt to between 876 and 1013 Mt) and that it is unlikely emissions could be stabilised at levels consistent with risk averse climate targets without restricting demand

Hungry for success: Urban consumer demand for wild animal products in Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca Drury

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Rising urban prosperity is escalating demand for wild animal products in Vietnam. Conservation interventions seek to influence consumer demand, but are based on a limited understanding of consumers and consumption behaviour. This report presents key findings of a structured survey (n=915 and semi-structured interviews (n=78 to investigate the social context of consumption of wild animal-derived products among the population of central Hanoi. Wildmeat is the product most commonly reported consumed-predominantly by successful, high-income, high-status males of all ages and educational levels-and is used as a medium to communicate prestige and obtain social leverage. As Vietnam′s economy grows and its population ages, demand for wildmeat and medicinal products is likely to rise. Given the difficulties of acting on personal rather than collective interests and the symbolic role of wildmeat in an extremely status-conscious society, reducing demand is challenging. Influencing consumer behaviour over the long term requires social marketing expertise and has to be informed by an in-depth understanding, achieved using appropriate methods, of the social drivers of consumer demand for wild animal products. In the meantime, strengthened enforcement is needed to prevent the demand being met from consumers prepared to pay the rising costs of finding the last individuals of a species.

Demand side management program evaluation based on industrial and commercial field data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eissa, M.M.

2011-01-01

Demand Response is increasingly viewed as an important tool for use by the electric utility industry in meeting the growing demand for electricity. There are two basic categories of demand response options: time varying retail tariffs and incentive Demand Response Programs. is applying the time varying retail tariffs program, which is not suitable according to the studied load curves captured from the industrial and commercial sectors. Different statistical studies on daily load curves for consumers connected to 22 kV lines are classified. The load curve criteria used for classification is based on peak ratio and night ratio. The data considered here is a set of 120 annual load curves corresponding to the electric power consumption (the western area in the King Saudi Arabia (KSA)) of many clients in winter and some months in the summer (peak period). The study is based on real data from several Saudi customer sectors in many geographical areas with larger commercial and industrial customers. The study proved that the suitable Demand Response for the ESC is the incentive program. - Highlights: → Study helps in selecting the proper demand side program. → A credit will be given for the customers during summer months. → Reduction in the electric bill. → Monthly bill credit is decreased based on customers' peak load reduction. → Guide for applying the proper demand side program suitable for the utility and customers.

MODELLING CHALLENGES TO FORECAST URBAN GOODS DEMAND FOR RAIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio COMI

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the new research challenges for forecasting urban goods demand by rail. In fact, the growing interest to find urban logistics solutions for improving city sustainability and liveability, mainly due to the reduction of urban road accessibility and environmental constraints, has pushed to explore solutions alternative to the road. Multimodal urban logistics, based on the use of railway, seem an interesting alternative solution, but it remained mainly at conceptual level. Few studies have explored the factors, that push actors to find competitive such a system with respect to the road, and modelling framework for forecasting the relative demand. Therefore, paper reviews the current literature, investigates the factors involved in choosing such a mode, and finally, recalls a recent modelling framework and hence proposes some advancements that allow to point out the rail transport alternative.

Attentional Demand of a Virtual Reality-Based Reaching Task in Nondisabled Older Adults

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-An; Chung, Yu-Chen; Proffitt, Rachel; Wade, Eric; Winstein, Carolee

2015-01-01

Attention during exercise is known to affect performance; however, the attentional demand inherent to virtual reality (VR)-based exercise is not well understood. We used a dual-task paradigm to compare the attentional demands of VR-based and non-VR-based (conventional, real-world) exercise: 22 non-disabled older adults performed a primary reaching task to virtual and real targets in a counterbalanced block order while verbally responding to an unanticipated auditory tone in one third of the trials. The attentional demand of the primary reaching task was inferred from the voice response time (VRT) to the auditory tone. Participants' engagement level and task experience were also obtained using questionnaires. The virtual target condition was more attention demanding (significantly longer VRT) than the real target condition. Secondary analyses revealed a significant interaction between engagement level and target condition on attentional demand. For participants who were highly engaged, attentional demand was high and independent of target condition. However, for those who were less engaged, attentional demand was low and depended on target condition (i.e., virtual > real). These findings add important knowledge to the growing body of research pertaining to the development and application of technology-enhanced exercise for elders and for rehabilitation purposes. PMID:27004233

Attentional Demand of a Virtual Reality-Based Reaching Task in Nondisabled Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-An; Chung, Yu-Chen; Proffitt, Rachel; Wade, Eric; Winstein, Carolee

2015-12-01

Attention during exercise is known to affect performance; however, the attentional demand inherent to virtual reality (VR)-based exercise is not well understood. We used a dual-task paradigm to compare the attentional demands of VR-based and non-VR-based (conventional, real-world) exercise: 22 non-disabled older adults performed a primary reaching task to virtual and real targets in a counterbalanced block order while verbally responding to an unanticipated auditory tone in one third of the trials. The attentional demand of the primary reaching task was inferred from the voice response time (VRT) to the auditory tone. Participants' engagement level and task experience were also obtained using questionnaires. The virtual target condition was more attention demanding (significantly longer VRT) than the real target condition. Secondary analyses revealed a significant interaction between engagement level and target condition on attentional demand. For participants who were highly engaged, attentional demand was high and independent of target condition. However, for those who were less engaged, attentional demand was low and depended on target condition (i.e., virtual > real). These findings add important knowledge to the growing body of research pertaining to the development and application of technology-enhanced exercise for elders and for rehabilitation purposes.

Investigation of Future Thermal Comforts in a Tropical Megacity Using Coupling of Energy Balance Model and Large Eddy Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Sueishi, T.; Yucel, M.; Ashie, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Inagaki, A.; Darmanto, N. S.; Nakayoshi, M.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Recently, temperature in urban areas continue to rise as an effect of climate change and urbanization. Specifically, Asian megacities are projected to expand rapidly resulting to serious in the future atmospheric environment. Thus, detailed analysis of urban meteorology for Asian megacities is needed to prescribe optimum against these negative climate modifications. A building-resolving large eddy simulation (LES) coupled with an energy balance model is conducted for a highly urbanized district in central Jakarta on typical daytime hours. Five cases were considered; case 1 utilizes present urban scenario and four cases representing different urban configurations in 2050. The future configurations were based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Building height maps and land use maps of simulation domains are shown in the attached figure (top). Case 1 3 focuses on the difference of future scenarios. Case 1 represents current climatic and urban conditions, case 2 and 3 was an idealized future represented by RCP2.6/SSP1 and RCP8.5/SSP3, respectively. More complex urban morphology was applied in case 4, vegetation and building area were changed in case 5. Meteorological inputs and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) were calculated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Varquez et al [2017]). Sensible and latent heat flux from surfaces were calculated using an energy balance model (Ashie et al [2011]), with considers multi-reflection, evapotranspiration and evaporation. The results of energy balance model (shown in the middle line of figure), in addition to WRF outputs, were used as input into the PArallelized LES Model (PALM) (Raasch et al [2001]). From standard new effective temperature (SET*) which included the effects of temperature, wind speed, humidity and radiation, thermal comfort in urban area was evaluated. SET* contours at 1 m height are shown in the bottom line of the figure. Extreme climate

Synthetic and non-synthetic anthropogenic fibers in a river under the impact of Paris Megacity: Sampling methodological aspects and flux estimations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dris, Rachid; Gasperi, Johnny; Rocher, Vincent; Tassin, Bruno

2018-03-15

Processed fibers are highly present in our daily life and can be either natural, artificial (regenerated cellulose) and synthetic (made with petrochemicals). Their widespread use lead inevitably to a high contamination of environment. Previous studies focus on plastic particles regardless of their type or shape as long as they are comprised between 330μm and 5mm. On the contrary, this study focuses exclusively on fibers using a smaller mesh size net (80μm) to sample freshwater. Moreover, all processed organic fibers are considered, irrespective to their nature. First, the short term temporal variability of the fibers in the environment was assessed. While exposing the sampling net during 1min a coefficient of variation of approx. 45% (with n=6) was determined. It was of only 26% (n=6) when the exposure was of 3min. The assessment of the distribution through the section showed a possible difference in concentrations between the middle of the water surface and the river banks which could be attributed to the intense river traffic within the Paris Megacity. The vertical variability seems negligible as turbulence and current conditions homogenize the distribution of the fibers. A monthly monitoring showed concentrations of 100.6±99.9fibers·m -3 in the Marne River and of: 48.5±98.5, 27.9±26.3, 27.9±40.3 and 22.1±25.3fibers·m -3 from the upstream to downstream points in the Seine River. Once these concentrations are converted into fluxes, it seems that the impact generated by the Paris Megacity cannot be distinguished. Investigations on the role of sedimentation and deposition on the banks are required. This study helped fill some major knowledge gaps regarding the fibers in rivers, their sampling, occurrence, spatial-temporal distribution and fluxes. It is encouraged that future studies include both synthetic and none synthetic fibers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eldercare Demands, Mental Health, and Work Performance : The Moderating Role of Satisfaction With Eldercare Tasks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zacher, Hannes; Jimmieson, Nerina L.; Winter, Gabriele

Due to demographic changes, a growing number of employees provide in-home care to an elderly family member. Previous research suggested a negative relationship between employees' eldercare demands and their work performance. However, the empirical nature of this relationship and its boundary

Urban expansion and transportation : the impact of urban form on commuting patterns on the city fringe of Beijing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhao, Pengjun; Lue, Bin; de Roo, Gert

2010-01-01

A key issue in the development of China's growing megacities in the transport-related environmental costs due to rapid urban expansion. In light of this issue, the authors examine the impact of urban form on commuting patterns on the city fringe of Beijing. Based on household-survey data, the

Linking meters and markets: Roles and incentives to support a flexible demand side

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Katz, Jonas

2014-01-01

wholesale market participants to the demand side is mostly infeasible, resulting in flexibility tasks being aggregated and delegated to balancing responsible wholesale traders. This analysis focuses on whether current incentives and roles are appropriate and where the design could be improved to establish......Present trends in the development of electricity systems are expected to generate a growing need for flexibility in decentralised resources, including demand response. In order to enable decentralised actors to create value, the organisation of markets and incentives should incorporate these new...... a flexible demand side with a particular focus on the Danish case. Design-related barriers are identified that affect expected value, associated risks, and the distribution of responsibilities. This serves as a basis to define policy options in the context of Nordic electricity markets. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd...

Demand Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

Comparing Urban and Rural Household CO2 Emissions—Case from China’s Four Megacities: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Huang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available CO2 emissions caused by household consumption have become one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Studying household CO2 emissions (HCEs is of great significance to energy conservation and emissions reduction. In this study, we quantitatively analyzed the direct and indirect CO2 emissions by urban and rural households in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing. The results show that urban total HCEs are larger than rural total HCEs for the four megacities. Urban total per capita household CO2 emissions (PHCEs are larger than rural total PHCEs in Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing, while rural total PHCEs in Shanghai are larger than urban total PHCEs. Electricity and hot water production and supply was the largest contributor of indirect HCEs for both rural and urban households. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing outsourced a large amount of indirect CO2 emissions to their neighboring provinces.

Vývojové tendence on-demand portálů. Netflix a extenze nabídky o vlastní tvorbu.

OpenAIRE

Sládková, Magdalena

2015-01-01

The aim of the thesis 'Development of on-demand portals. Netflix and his original programming extension' is to map the production, marketing and distribution strategies of Netflix, the largst on- demand platform in the world, in context with the current state of linear television broadcasting. It can be pressumed, that both the on-line distribution and original content programming of on-demand platforms will contitnue to grow. The thesis examines the programming of Netflix, in regard to other...

Grow, Baby, Grow

Science.gov (United States)

Maybe you quit smoking during your pregnancy. Or maybe you struggled and weren’t able to stay quit. Now that your baby is here, trying to stay away from smoking is still important. That’s because the chemicals in smoke can make it harder for your baby to grow like he or she should.

Water resources for urban water and food security: the case of megacity Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Vanham, Davy; Gawlik, Bernd; Bidoglio, Giovanni

2017-04-01

The extent to which urban dwellers consume resources is key on the path to reaching global SDGs. One of these resources is water, which is consumed in a direct and indirect way by city inhabitants, to achieve water and food security within city borders. In this study, we quantify the water resources required to provide these two essential securities for megacity Hong Kong. During the last years, this city has made large investments to make its urban water supply system more water efficient and sustainable. As such, its municipal water abstraction - often defined as direct water use - has decreased from 355 litres per capita per day (l/cap/d) in 2005 to 326 l/cap/d in 2013. Due to its political history, Hong Kong is unique in the world in data availability on urban food consumption. It is therefore the ideal case study to show typical urban food consumption behaviour and its related indirect water use. The current average diet in Hong Kong is very different to the average Chinese diet. It is characterised by a high intake of water intensive products like animal products and sugar, leading to a food related indirect water use or water footprint (WFcons) of 4727 l/cap/d. According to recommendations from the Chinese Nutrition Society for a healthy diet, the intake of some product groups should be increased (vegetables and fruit) and of other product groups reduced (sugar, crop oils, meat and animal fats). This would result in a reduction of the WFcons of 40% to 2852 l/cap/d. Especially the reduced intake of meat (including offals) from currently 126 kg per capita per year (kg/cap/yr) to the recommended value 27 kg/cap/yr would result in a substantial WFcons reduction. Meat consumption in Hong Kong is extremely high. A pesco-vegetarian diet would result in a reduction of 49% (to 2398 l/cap/d) and a vegetarian diet in a 53% (to 2224 l/cap/d) reduction. Hong Kong citizens can thus save a lot of water by looking at their indirect water use, through a change in their diet

Outlook of Japan's economy and energy demand for FY2017

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Y.; Tsunoda, M.

2017-01-01

This paper disclosed the prospects of Japan's economy and energy demand as the standard scenario, with the following major preconditions in mind: (1) world economy grows moderately, (2) supply and demand of crude oil are gently balanced, (3) exchange rate is Yen110/$, (4) nuclear power generation gradually moves back to operation, and the number of cumulative reopening units until the end of FY2017 reaches 14, and (5) supply and demand of electric power can secure 3% supply reserve ratio necessary for stable supply of electricity nationwide. In addition, this paper carried out evaluation analyses on the following various influences: macro economy, production activity, primary energy domestic supply, final energy consumption, electricity sales volume and power source composition (electric power companies), city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, renewable energy power generation, impact of nuclear power plant restart base, income/expenditure for on renewable energy generation, and impact of realization of large scale coal thermal power plant plan. (A.O.)

A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

2008-01-01

China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand. This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil. This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrere, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

Could Regulator Materialize Potential Demand for Islamic Securities? Evidence from Indonesia

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Bayu Kariastanto

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objective – The objective of this paper is to provide a discussion whether Islamic securities enjoy larger demands than conventional securities. This paper also investigate whether regulator could effectively take a role in materializing demands for Islamic securities and whether regulator declaration is more convincing than sharia compliance declaration by another institution.Methods - We employ differences in differences (DID regression to see the immediate, medium, and long term market response to this announcement. We also estimate cumulative abnormal returns by employing the standard market model for the robustness test.Results - We find that market reacts to sharia compliance declaration by regulator in the long-run, hence potential demands are realized and the Islamic securities will enjoy greater market power. We also provide evidence that Islamic investors are not too strict in screening Islamic securities and are willing to accept different opinions regarding sharia compliance.Conclusion - This finding could explain why Islamic finance is still growing rapidly even though there are critiques in the genuineness of sharia compliance of the current Islamic financial products/services.Keywords: Regulator, Islamic securities, sharia compliance, demand, investor confidence

North American pipelines supply/demand update: challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopal, J.

2002-01-01

The author began the presentation by providing a little definition of forecasting supply, demand and price as applied to the natural gas industry, indicating that it is both science and art. An integrated grid in North America, the natural gas sector modeling relates to supply basins, demand centers and pipes includes the United States, Canada and Mexico. Some of the considerations are: huge demand from proposed power generation, conservation, and drilling impacts, as well as pipeline capacity. A chart displaying the North American model was explained. The author discussed the technically recoverable natural gas resources as well as the estimates in both Canada and the United States. The next section deals with exploration and development of frontier resources and power plant licensing, with emphasis on power plants in California. The generation assumptions for the Western Systems Coordinating Council from the Energy Commission are reviewed, placing the numbers in their proper perspective. California natural gas supply by source is examined, followed by regional natural gas spot price. The wellhead natural gas prices for North America and for the Lower 48 states are presented. The author indicates that additional pipeline capacity is required to meet the growing demand. Several factors have to be considered: the number of power plants, when and where; pipeline capacity (how much); regulations; slack capacity; cost of slack capacity, and supply. The concluding remarks touched upon the availability of gas resources, the environmental issues that affect demand, hub services that enhance service flexibility and reliability, and pipeline capacity and storage. 2 tabs., 15 figs

Remotely Measuring Trash Fluxes in the Flood Canals of Megacities with Time Lapse Cameras and Computer Vision Algorithms - a Case Study from Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Sedlar, F.; Turpin, E.; Kerkez, B.

2014-12-01

As megacities around the world continue to develop at breakneck speeds, future development, investment, and social wellbeing are threatened by a number of environmental and social factors. Chief among these is frequent, persistent, and unpredictable urban flooding. Jakarta, Indonesia with a population of 28 million, is a prime example of a city plagued by such flooding. Yet although Jakarta has ample hydraulic infrastructure already in place with more being constructed, the increasingly severity of the flooding it experiences is not from a lack of hydraulic infrastructure but rather a failure of existing infrastructure. As was demonstrated during the most recent floods in Jakarta, the infrastructure failure is often the result of excessive amounts of trash in the flood canals. This trash clogs pumps and reduces the overall system capacity. Despite this critical weakness of flood control in Jakarta, no data exists on the overall amount of trash in the flood canals, much less on how it varies temporally and spatially. The recent availability of low cost photography provides a means to obtain such data. Time lapse photography postprocessed with computer vision algorithms yields a low cost, remote, and automatic solution to measuring the trash fluxes. When combined with the measurement of key hydrological parameters, a thorough understanding of the relationship between trash fluxes and the hydrology of massive urban areas becomes possible. This work examines algorithm development, quantifying trash parameters, and hydrological measurements followed by data assimilation into existing hydraulic and hydrological models of Jakarta. The insights afforded from such an approach allows for more efficient operating of hydraulic infrastructure, knowledge of when and where critical levels of trash originate from, and the opportunity for community outreach - which is ultimately needed to reduce the trash in the flood canals of Jakarta and megacities around the world.

The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

2000-01-01

This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

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Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

Source tagging modeling study of heavy haze episodes under complex regional transport processes over Wuhan megacity, Central China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, Miaomiao; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Zifa; Gbaguidi, Alex; Liang, Shengwen; Hu, Ke; Wu, Lin; Wu, Huangjian; Huang, Zhen; Shen, Longjiao

2017-01-01

Wuhan as a megacity of Central China was suffering from severe particulate matter pollution according to previous observation studies, however, the mechanism behind the pollution formation especially the impact of regional chemical transport is still unclear. This study, carried out on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) coupled with an on-line source-tagging module, explores different roles regional transport had in two strong haze episodes over Wuhan in October 2014 and quantitatively assesses the contributions from local and regional sources to PM 2.5 concentration. Validation of predictions based on observations shows modeling system good skills in reproducing key meteorological and chemical features. The first short-time haze episode occurred on 12 October under strong northerly winds, with a hourly PM 2.5 peak of 180 μg m −3 , and was found to be caused primarily by the long-range transport from the northern regions, which contributed 60.6% of the episode's PM 2.5 concentration (versus a total of 32.7% from sources in and near Wuhan). The second episode lasted from the 15–20 October under stable regional large-scale synoptic conditions and weak winds, and had an hourly PM 2.5 peak of 231.0 μg m −3 . In this episode, both the long-distance transport from far regions and short-range transport from the Wuhan-cluster were the primary causes of the haze episode and account for 24.8% and 29.2% of the PM 2.5 concentration respectively. Therefore, regional transport acts as a crucial driver of haze pollution over Wuhan through not only long-range transfer of pollutants, but also short-range aerosol movement under specific meteorological conditions. The present findings highlight the important role of regional transport in urban haze formation and indicate that the joint control of multi city-clusters are needed to reduce the particulate pollution level in Wuhan. - Highlights: • Regional transport impacts studied on two haze

Population-level impact of active tuberculosis case finding in an Asian megacity.

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David W Dowdy

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The potential population-level impact of private-sector initiatives for tuberculosis (TB case finding in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. In 2011, the Indus Hospital TB Control Program in Karachi, Pakistan, undertook an aggressive case-finding campaign that doubled notification rates, providing an opportunity to investigate potential population-level effects. METHODS: We constructed an age-structured compartmental model of TB in the intervention area. We fit the model using field and literature data, assuming that TB incidence equaled the estimated nationwide incidence in Pakistan (primary analysis, or 1.5 times greater (high-incidence scenario. We modeled the intervention as an increase in the rate of formal-sector TB diagnosis and evaluated the potential impact of sustaining this rate for five years. RESULTS: In the primary analysis, the five-year intervention averted 24% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 18-30% of five-year cumulative TB cases and 52% (95% UR: 45-57% of cumulative TB deaths. Corresponding reductions in the high-incidence scenario were 12% (95% UR: 8-17% and 27% (95% UR: 21-34%, although the absolute number of lives saved was higher. At the end of five years, TB notification rates in the primary analysis were below their 2010 baseline, incidence had dropped by 45%, and annual mortality had fallen by 72%. About half of the cumulative impact on incidence and mortality could be achieved with a one-year intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained, multifaceted, and innovative approaches to TB case-finding in Asian megacities can have substantial community-wide epidemiological impact.

Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

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J. Lelieveld

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and ozone (O3 has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO. This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM2.5 concentration of >10 μg m−3 (WHO guideline and 33% to > 25 μg m−3 (EU directive. We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year, 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year. The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr−1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

Role of meteorology in seasonality of air pollution in megacity Delhi, India.

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Guttikunda, Sarath K; Gurjar, Bhola R

2012-05-01

The winters in megacity Delhi are harsh, smoggy, foggy, and highly polluted. The pollution levels are approximately two to three times those monitored in the summer months, and the severity is felt not only in the health department but also in the transportation department, with regular delays at airport operations and series of minor and major accidents across the road corridors. The impacts felt across the city are both manmade (due to the fuel burning) and natural (due to the meteorological setting), and it is hard to distinguish their respective proportions. Over the last decade, the city has gained from timely interventions to control pollution, and yet, the pollution levels are as bad as the previous year, especially for the fine particulates, the most harmful of the criteria pollutants, with a daily 2009 average of 80 to 100 μg/m(3). In this paper, the role of meteorology is studied using a Lagrangian model called Atmospheric Transport Modeling System in tracer mode to better understand the seasonality of pollution in Delhi. A clear conclusion is that irrespective of constant emissions over each month, the estimated tracer concentrations are invariably 40% to 80% higher in the winter months (November, December, and January) and 10% to 60% lower in the summer months (May, June, and July), when compared to annual average for that year. Along with monitoring and source apportionment studies, this paper presents a way to communicate complex physical characteristics of atmospheric modeling in simplistic manner and to further elaborate linkages between local meteorology and pollution.

Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

Science.gov (United States)

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

2015-03-01

The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

Demand Side Management: An approach to peak load smoothing

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Prachi

need for additional production capacity by the means of demand response measures, but the success is limited to only a few regions. The rate of progress in the future will depend on a wide range of improved technologies and a continuous government monitoring for successful adoption of demand response programs to manage growing energy demand.

Toward consistency between trends in bottom-up CO2 emissions and top-down atmospheric measurements in the Los Angeles megacity

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S. Newman

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO2 mole fractions and Δ14C and δ13C values of CO2 in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013 and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013, we have determined time series for CO2 contributions from fossil fuel combustion (Cff for both sites and broken those down into contributions from petroleum and/or gasoline and natural gas burning for Pasadena. We find a 10 % reduction in Pasadena Cff during the Great Recession of 2008–2010, which is consistent with the bottom-up inventory determined by the California Air Resources Board. The isotopic variations and total atmospheric CO2 from our observations are used to infer seasonality of natural gas and petroleum combustion. The trend of CO2 contributions to the atmosphere from natural gas combustion is out of phase with the seasonal cycle of total natural gas combustion seasonal patterns in bottom-up inventories but is consistent with the seasonality of natural gas usage by the area's electricity generating power plants. For petroleum, the inferred seasonality of CO2 contributions from burning petroleum is delayed by several months relative to usage indicated by statewide gasoline taxes. Using the high-resolution Hestia-LA data product to compare Cff from parts of the basin sampled by winds at different times of year, we find that variations in observed fossil fuel CO2 reflect seasonal variations in wind direction. The seasonality of the local CO2 excess from fossil fuel combustion along the coast, on Palos Verdes peninsula, is higher in autumn and winter than spring and summer, almost completely out of phase with that from Pasadena, also because of the annual variations of winds in the region. Variations in fossil fuel CO2 signals are consistent with sampling the bottom-up Hestia-LA fossil CO2 emissions product for sub

School environment and policies, child eating behavior and overweight/obesity in urban China: the childhood obesity study in China megacities.

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Jia, P; Li, M; Xue, H; Lu, L; Xu, F; Wang, Y

2017-05-01

Childhood obesity is rising rapidly in China, especially in urban areas. Knowledge about how school environment and policies (SEPs) may have contributed to the epidemic remains limited. We examined SEP and their associations with students' eating behaviors and overweight/obesity in urban China. Data were collected from 1648 students (plus their parents and schools) in 16 primary and middle schools (4 schools per city) in four megacities across China: Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and Xi'an. We examined nutrition-related SEP such as unhealthy food restriction, healthy food promotion, price control and nutrition guideline in school cafeterias (SCs), campus food stores (CFS), school vicinity food stalls (SVFS); SEP on physical activity, physical education (PE) and physical examination. Cluster robust regression models were fit to assess associations of SEP with child eating behaviors and overweight/obesity (defined based on body mass index, from measured weight and height). All 16 schools had regular PE classes and annual physical examination. Most schools (n=12; 75%) had food policies in SC; few had policies on CFS (n=1; 6.25%) or SVFS (n=4; 25%). Local governments had a major role in regulating food prices, setting nutrition guidelines and regulating SVFS. Policies on CFS and SVFS were associated with less frequent intake of sugary beverage (odds ratio (OR)=0.54 (0.47-0.61); OR=0.70 (0.61-0.80)), snack (OR=0.84 (0.74-0.95); OR=0.78 (0.67-0.92)) and fast food (OR=0.58 (0.42-0.81); OR=0.56 (0.39-0.80)). The associations were stronger for boys. Policies on SC, CFS and SVFS were associated with lower likelihood for overweight/obesity (OR=0.60 (0.46-0.79); OR=0.74 (0.62-0.90); OR=0.51 (0.35-0.73)) and central obesity (OR=0.79 (0.70-0.89); OR=0.67 (0.48-0.92); OR=0.63 (0.48-0.84)) in boys. Policies on SC were associated with lower overweight/obesity odds (OR=0.48 (0.28-0.82)) for girls. SEP are heterogeneous in the four Chinese megacities, high-income areas. They affect

Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

2012-03-01

-credentialed dietetics practitioners declined from 3% in the early 1990s to 1.5% by 2010. • The net supply of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners is projected to grow by 1.1% annually. • Approximately 75% of the demand for the dietetics workforce will be met by the 2020 supply of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners. • The aging population, health care reform, increased prevalence of certain conditions (including obesity), and growth in the food industry are key factors affecting the demand. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Shifting the urban heat island clock in a megacity: a case study of Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xuan; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-01-01

With increasing levels of urbanization in the near future, understanding the impact of urbanization on urban heat islands (UHIs) is critical to adapting to regional climate and environmental changes. However, our understanding of the UHI effect relies mainly on its intensity or magnitude. The present study evaluates the impact of urbanization on UHI duration changes by comparing three stations with different rates of urbanization, including highly developed and developing urban areas throughout Hong Kong, from 1990-2015. Results show that the 26 year average UHI intensity in highly urbanized regions is much higher than that in developing areas, and the 26 year average of UHI duration is similar. Over the past 25 years, however, UHI duration has increased only in developing urban areas, from 13.59-17.47 hours. Both earlier UHI starting and later UHI ending times concurrently contribute to the UHI effect being experienced for a longer duration. The differences in UHI duration change between the two areas are supported by population and by night light changes from space. Increasing night light, which suggests enhancements in the economic infrastructure, occurred only in the developing urban areas. Our results suggest that changes in UHI duration should be included in an assessment of regional climate change as well as in urban planning in a megacity.

Can butterflies cope with city life? Butterfly diversity in a young megacity in southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Sing, Kong-Wah; Dong, Hui; Wang, Wen-Zhi; Wilson, John-James

2016-09-01

During 30 years of unprecedented urbanization, plant diversity in Shenzhen, a young megacity in southern China, has increased dramatically. Although strongly associated with plant diversity, butterfly diversity generally declines with urbanization, but this has not been investigated in Shenzhen. Considering the speed of urbanization in Shenzhen and the large number of city parks, we investigated butterfly diversity in Shenzhen parks. We measured butterfly species richness in four microhabitats (groves, hedges, flowerbeds, and unmanaged areas) across 10 parks and examined the relationship with three park variables: park age, park size, and distance from the central business district. Butterflies were identified based on wing morphology and DNA barcoding. We collected 1933 butterflies belonging to 74 species from six families; 20% of the species were considered rare. Butterfly species richness showed weak negative correlations with park age and distance from the central business district, but the positive correlation with park size was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Among microhabitat types, highest species richness was recorded in unmanaged areas. Our findings are consistent with others in suggesting that to promote urban butterfly diversity it is necessary to make parks as large as possible and to set aside areas for limited management. In comparison to neighbouring cities, Shenzhen parks have high butterfly diversity.

Diesel-related hydrocarbons can dominate gas phase reactive carbon in megacities

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R. E. Dunmore

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Hydrocarbons are key precursors to two priority air pollutants, ozone and particulate matter. Those with two to seven carbons have historically been straightforward to observe and have been successfully reduced in many developed cities through air quality policy interventions. Longer chain hydrocarbons released from diesel vehicles are not considered explicitly as part of air quality strategies and there are few direct measurements of their gaseous abundance in the atmosphere. This study describes the chemically comprehensive and continuous measurements of organic compounds in a developed megacity (London, which demonstrate that on a seasonal median basis, diesel-related hydrocarbons represent only 20–30 % of the total hydrocarbon mixing ratio but comprise more than 50 % of the atmospheric hydrocarbon mass and are a dominant local source of secondary organic aerosols. This study shows for the first time that 60 % of the winter primary hydrocarbon hydroxyl radical reactivity is from diesel-related hydrocarbons and using the maximum incremental reactivity scale, we predict that they contribute up to 50 % of the ozone production potential in London. Comparing real-world urban composition with regulatory emissions inventories in the UK and US highlights a previously unaccounted for, but very significant, under-reporting of diesel-related hydrocarbons; an underestimation of a factor ~4 for C9 species rising to a factor of over 70 for C12 during winter. These observations show that hydrocarbons from diesel vehicles can dominate gas phase reactive carbon in cities with high diesel fleet fractions. Future control of urban particulate matter and ozone in such locations requires a shift in policy focus onto gas phase hydrocarbons released from diesels as this vehicle type continues to displace gasoline world-wide.

Outdoor Education Gives Fewer Demands for Action Regulation and an Increased Variability of Affordances

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Fiskum, Tove Anita; Jacobsen, Karl

2013-01-01

In children's lives there are a lot of instigators for actions in every milieu and situation. When children grow older, the cortical activity starts to regulate the action instigation from the limbic system. The school system makes demands of action regulation for children. In outdoor education the many instigators for actions are not under the…

BEYOND JOB POSITIONS. A SOCIAL RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN JOB DEMAND

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Tomasz Pirog

2009-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present an analysis of the recent changes in the job market and discuss the process this triggered in the social politics of the welfare states. We examine the economic reasons for the changes in job demand and furthermore explore the associated changes in the social structures. New forms of employment and gratification demand a restructurization in the social politics in order to elasticise the job supply. The mismatch between the demand and supply on the job market may result in unemployment, work outside the norms of the law and a growing deficit of social security. This in turn leads to the situation where the sale of own work force doesn't always result in a dignified life standard. As a result, new ways to support people outside the regular job market need to be found. These new solution are essential in the modern society where the distribution of work is an important issue shaping the social bonds and individual identities.

Opportunities for Demand Response in California Agricultural Irrigation: A Scoping Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marks, Gary [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wilcox, Edmund [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goli, Sasank [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2013-01-02

California agricultural irrigation consumes more than ten billion kilowatt hours of electricity annually and has significant potential for contributing to a reduction of stress on the grid through demand response, permanent load shifting, and energy efficiency measures. To understand this potential, a scoping study was initiated for the purpose of determining the associated opportunities, potential, and adoption challenges in California agricultural irrigation. The primary research for this study was conducted in two ways. First, data was gathered and parsed from published sources that shed light on where the best opportunities for load shifting and demand response lie within the agricultural irrigation sector. Secondly, a small limited survey was conducted as informal face-to-face interviews with several different California growers to get an idea of their ability and willingness to participate in permanent load shifting and/or demand response programs. Analysis of the data obtained from published sources and the survey reveal demand response and permanent load shifting opportunities by growing region, irrigation source, irrigation method, grower size, and utility coverage. The study examines some solutions for demand response and permanent load shifting in agricultural irrigation, which include adequate irrigation system capacity, automatic controls, variable frequency drives, and the contribution from energy efficiency measures. The study further examines the potential and challenges for grower acceptance of demand response and permanent load shifting in California agricultural irrigation. As part of the examination, the study considers to what extent permanent load shifting, which is already somewhat accepted within the agricultural sector, mitigates the need or benefit of demand response for agricultural irrigation. Recommendations for further study include studies on how to gain grower acceptance of demand response as well as other related studies such as

The declining demand for hospital care as a rationale for duty hour reform.

Science.gov (United States)

Jena, Anupam B; DePasse, Jacqueline W; Prasad, Vinay

2014-10-01

The regulation of duty hours of physicians in training remains among the most hotly debated subjects in medical education. Although recent duty hour reforms have been chiefly motivated by concerns about resident well-being and medical errors attributable to resident fatigue, the debate surrounding duty hour reform has infrequently involved discussion of one of the most important secular changes in hospital care that has affected nearly all developed countries over the last 3 decades: the declining demand for hospital care. For example, in 1980, we show that resident physicians in US teaching hospitals provided, on average, 1,302 inpatient days of care per resident physician compared to 593 inpatient days in 2011, a decline of 54%. This decline in the demand for hospital care by residents provides an under-recognized economic rationale for reducing residency duty hours, a rationale based solely on supply and demand considerations. Work hour reductions and growing requirements for outpatient training can be seen as an appropriate response to the shrinking demand for hospital care across the health-care sector.

Physical and physiological demands of futsal

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Naser Naser

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Futsal, the 5-a-side version of soccer (i.e. 1 goalkeeper and 4 outfield players, was introduced in 1930 and continues to grow in popularity around the world. Competitive games comprise of two 20-min periods of high-intensity and intermittent activities requiring substantial physical, tactical, and technical efforts from the players. A greater understanding of the physical and skill requirements will aid the development of futsal and enable practitioners to undertake appropriate training regimes for the demands of the sport. The objective of this review is to examine key aspects of futsal such as match analysis, physiological demands, energy requirements, fitness measurements, and skill requirements. Futsal players experience fatigue as the game progresses due to the high-intensity nature of the game and the repeated maximal sprint efforts required. The intermittent nature of the sport necessitates the use of aerobic and anaerobic energy pathways throughout exercise. Therefore, a futsal player needs to have a great capacity of intermittent endurance, repeated sprint ability, and leg power, while technical aspects include the ability of high level shooting and passing skills, agility and coordination. Future research is warranted to help practitioners develop more specific tests into futsal performance, especially with regards skill.

Global demand for rare earth resources and strategies for green mining

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dutta, Tanushree [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ki-Hyun, E-mail: kkim61@hanyang.ac.kr [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Uchimiya, Minori [USDA-ARS Southern Regional Research Center, 1100 Robert E. Lee Boulevard, New Orleans, LA 70124 (United States); Kwon, Eilhann E. [Department of Environment and Energy, Sejong University, Seoul 05006 (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Byong-Hun [Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Deep, Akash [Central Scientific Instruments Organisation (CSIR-CSIO), Sector 30C, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Yun, Seong-Taek [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and KU-KIST Green School, Korea University, Seoul 02841 (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential raw materials for emerging renewable energy resources and ‘smart’ electronic devices. Global REE demand is slated to grow at an annual rate of 5% by 2020. This high growth rate will require a steady supply base of REEs in the long run. At present, China is responsible for 85% of global rare earth oxide (REO) production. To overcome this monopolistic supply situation, new strategies and investments are necessary to satisfy domestic supply demands. Concurrently, environmental, economic, and social problems arising from REE mining must be addressed. There is an urgent need to develop efficient REE recycling techniques from end-of-life products, technologies to minimize the amount of REEs required per unit device, and methods to recover them from fly ash or fossil fuel-burning wastes.

Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

2014-01-01

It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

Price, environment and security: Exploring multi-modal motivation in voluntary residential peak demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gyamfi, Samuel; Krumdieck, Susan

2011-01-01

Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response projects aim to manage peak demand by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. This research investigates voluntary load shedding in response to information about the security of supply, the emission profile and the cost of meeting critical peak demand in the customers' network. Customer willingness to change behaviour in response to this information was explored through mail-back survey. The diversified demand modelling method was used along with energy audit data to estimate the potential peak load reduction resulting from the voluntary demand response. A case study was conducted in a suburb of Christchurch, New Zealand, where electricity is the main source for water and space heating. On this network, all water heating cylinders have ripple-control technology and about 50% of the households subscribe to differential day/night pricing plan. The survey results show that the sensitivity to supply security is on par with price, with the emission sensitivity being slightly weaker. The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. - Highlights: → Multiple-factor behaviour intervention is necessarily for effective residential demand response. → Security signals can achieve result comparable to price. → The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. → New Zealand's energy policy should include innovation and development of VDR programmes and technologies.

Aquaculture: a rapidly growing and significant source of sustainable food? Status, transitions and potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Little, D C; Newton, R W; Beveridge, M C M

2016-08-01

The status and potential of aquaculture is considered as part of a broader food landscape of wild aquatic and terrestrial food sources. The rationale and resource base required for the development of aquaculture are considered in the context of broader societal development, cultural preferences and human needs. Attention is drawn to the uneven development and current importance of aquaculture globally as well as its considerable heterogeneity of form and function compared with established terrestrial livestock production. The recent drivers of growth in demand and production are examined and the persistent linkages between exploitation of wild stocks, full life cycle culture and the various intermediate forms explored. An emergent trend for sourcing aquaculture feeds from alternatives to marine ingredients is described and the implications for the sector with rapidly growing feed needs discussed. The rise of non-conventional and innovative feed ingredients, often shared with terrestrial livestock, are considered, including aquaculture itself becoming a major source of marine ingredients. The implications for the continued expected growth of aquaculture are set in the context of sustainable intensification, with the challenges that conventional intensification and emergent integration within, and between, value chains explored. The review concludes with a consideration of the implications for dependent livelihoods and projections for various futures based on limited resources but growing demand.

Demand Controlled Ventilation in a Combined Ventilation and Radiator System

OpenAIRE

Hesaraki, Arefeh; Holmberg, Sture

2013-01-01

With growing concerns for efficient and sustainable energy treatment in buildings there is a need for balanced and intelligent ventilation solutions. This paper presents a strategy for demand controlled ventilation with ventilation radiators, a combined heating and ventilation system. The ventilation rate was decreased from normal requirements (per floor area) of 0.375 l·s-1·m-2 to 0.100 l·s-1·m-2 when the residence building was un-occupied. The energy saving potential due to decreased ventil...

MEDICAL TOURISM : Demand for Cuban Medical Tourism by Russian Consumers

OpenAIRE

Ulanova, Anastasia

2015-01-01

Medical tourism, often addressed as health tourism, is a new concept in terms of tourism industry in general, and it is also one of the rapidly developing and growing ones. This thesis gives information on the medical tourism in general and its history. It also revises the development stages of the medical tourism in the world. Cuban medical tourism is analyzed on its own, as well as Russian medical tourism and the demand for it. Medical tourism is rather popular among Russians due to various...

Far East LPG sales will grow faster than in West

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

LPG sales through 2010 in regions east of the Suez Canal (East of Suez) will grow at more than twice those in regions west of the canal. East-of-Suez sales will grow at more than 4.0%/year, compared to slightly less than 2.0%/year growth in sales West of Suez. East-of-Suez sales will reach 92 million tons/year (tpy) by 2010, accounting for 39% of the worldwide total. This share was 31% in1995 and only 27% in 1990. LPG sales worldwide will reach 192 million tons in 2000 and 243 million tpy by 2010. In 1995, they were 163 million tons. These are some of the major conclusions of a recent study by Frank R. Spadine, Christine Kozar, and Rudy Clark of New York City-based consultant Poten and Partners Inc. Details of the study are in the fall report ''World Trade in LPG 1990--2010''. This paper discusses demand segments, seaborne balance, Western sources, largest trading region, North American supplies, and other supplies

Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

OpenAIRE

Browning, Martin

1999-01-01

In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

Automated Recognition of Vegetation and Water Bodies on the Territory of Megacities in Satellite Images of Visible and IR Bands

Science.gov (United States)

Mozgovoy, Dmitry k.; Hnatushenko, Volodymyr V.; Vasyliev, Volodymyr V.

2018-04-01

Vegetation and water bodies are a fundamental element of urban ecosystems, and water mapping is critical for urban and landscape planning and management. A methodology of automated recognition of vegetation and water bodies on the territory of megacities in satellite images of sub-meter spatial resolution of the visible and IR bands is proposed. By processing multispectral images from the satellite SuperView-1A, vector layers of recognized plant and water objects were obtained. Analysis of the results of image processing showed a sufficiently high accuracy of the delineation of the boundaries of recognized objects and a good separation of classes. The developed methodology provides a significant increase of the efficiency and reliability of updating maps of large cities while reducing financial costs. Due to the high degree of automation, the proposed methodology can be implemented in the form of a geo-information web service functioning in the interests of a wide range of public services and commercial institutions.

Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega City of São Paulo - SP, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Gonçalves Santos, Rafael; Saraiva Lopes, António Manuel; Prata-Shimomura, Alessandra

2017-04-01

Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega city of São Paulo - SP, Brazil Tropical megacities have presented a strong trend in growing urban. Urban management in megacities has as one of the biggest challenges is the lack of integration of urban climate and urban planning to promote ecologically smart cities. Local Climatic Zones (LCZs) are considered as important and recognized tool for urban climate management. Classes are local in scale, climatic in nature, and zonal in representation. They can be understood as regions of uniform surface cover, structure, material and human activity that have to a unique climate response. As an initial tool to promote urban climate planning, LCZs represent a simple composition of different land coverages (buildings, vegetation, soils, rock, roads and water). LCZs are divided in 17 classes, they are based on surface cover (built fraction, soil moisture, albedo), surface structure (sky view factor, roughness height) and cultural activity (anthropogenic heat flux). The aim of this study is the application of the LCZs classification system in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil. Located at a latitude of 23° 21' and longitude 46° 44' near to the Tropic of Capricorn, presenting humid subtropical climate (Cfa) with diversified topographies. The megacity of São Paulo currently concentrates 11.890.000 inhabitants is characterized by large urban conglomerates with impermeable surfaces and high verticalization, having as result high urban heat island intensity. The result indicates predominance in urban zones of Compact low-rise, Compact Mid-rise, Compact High-rise and Open Low-rise. Non-urban regions are mainly covered by dense vegetation and water. The LCZs classification system promotes significant advantages for climate sensitive urban planning in the megacity of São Paulo. They offers new perspectives to the management of temperature and urban ventilation and allows the formulation of urban planning

Correlation Analysis of Water Demand and Predictive Variables for Short-Term Forecasting Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. M. Brentan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Operational and economic aspects of water distribution make water demand forecasting paramount for water distribution systems (WDSs management. However, water demand introduces high levels of uncertainty in WDS hydraulic models. As a result, there is growing interest in developing accurate methodologies for water demand forecasting. Several mathematical models can serve this purpose. One crucial aspect is the use of suitable predictive variables. The most used predictive variables involve weather and social aspects. To improve the interrelation knowledge between water demand and various predictive variables, this study applies three algorithms, namely, classical Principal Component Analysis (PCA and machine learning powerful algorithms such as Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs and Random Forest (RF. We show that these last algorithms help corroborate the results found by PCA, while they are able to unveil hidden features for PCA, due to their ability to cope with nonlinearities. This paper presents a correlation study of three district metered areas (DMAs from Franca, a Brazilian city, exploring weather and social variables to improve the knowledge of residential demand for water. For the three DMAs, temperature, relative humidity, and hour of the day appear to be the most important predictive variables to build an accurate regression model.

The "prehistory" of marihuana consumption and growing in Colombia between 1930 and 1960

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Sáenz Rovner

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Marihuana consumption did not become widespread in Colombia as the simple result of its increased use as part of the north-American counterculture of the 1960s. Even though marihuana-growing spiraled to satisfy north-American demand at the end of the 1960s and 1970s there was an important market for domestic consumption in Colombia. "Exonerating-type" academic literature tending to see countries such as Colombia as the passive "victims" of externally-induced phenomena is thus questioned.

China's energy demand and its characteristics in the industrialization and urbanization process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Zhujun; Lin Boqiang

2012-01-01

China is currently in the process of industrialization and urbanization, which is the key stage of transition from a low-income country to a middle-income country and requires large amount of energy. The process will not end until 2020, so China's primary energy demand will keep high growth in the mid-term. Although each country is unique considering its particular history and background, all countries are sharing some common rules in energy demand for economic development. Based on the comparison with developed countries, here, we report some rules in the process of industrialization and urbanization as follows: (1) urbanization always goes along with industrialization; (2) the higher economic growth is, the higher energy demand is; (3) economic globalization makes it possible to shorten the time of industrialization, but the shorter the transition phase is, the faster energy demand grows; (4) the change of energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve, but whose shape can be changed for different energy policy. The above rules are very important for the Chinese government in framing its energy policy. - Highlights: ► China's energy demand will maintain high growth in mid-term. ► Urbanization always goes along with industrialization. ► Higher economic growth needs more energy. ► The energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve.

Evaluation of response capacity to patient attention demand in an Emergency Department

OpenAIRE

Bruballa Vilas, Eva

2017-01-01

The progressive growth of aging, increased life expectancy and a greater number of chronic diseases contribute significantly to the growing demand of emergency medical care, and thus, on saturation of Emergency Departments. This is one of the most important current problems in healthcare systems worldwide. This work proposes an analytical model to calculate the theoretical throughput of a particular sanitary staff configuration in a Hospital Emergency Department, which is, the number of patie...

LNG demand, shipping will expand through 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

True, W.R.

1998-01-01

The 1990s, especially the middle years, have witnessed a dramatic turnaround in the growth of liquefied-natural-gas demand which has tracked equally strong natural-gas demand growth. This trend was underscored late last year by several annual studies of world LNG demand and shipping. As 1998 began, however, economic turmoil in Asian financial markets has clouded near-term prospects for LNG in particular and all energy in general. But the extent of damage to energy markets is so far unclear. A study by US-based Institute of Gas Technology, Des Plaines, IL, reveals that LNG imports worldwide have climbed nearly 8%/year since 1980 and account for 25% of all natural gas traded internationally. In the mid-1970s, the share was only 5%. In 1996, the most recent year for which complete data are available, world LNG trade rose 7.7% to a record 92 billion cu m, outpacing the overall consumption for natural gas which increased 4.7% in 1996. By 2015, says the IGT study, natural-gas use would surpass coal as the world''s second most widely used fuel, after petroleum. Much of this growth will occur in the developing countries of Asia where gas use, before the current economic crisis began, was projected to grow 8%/year through 2015. Similar trends are reflected in another study of LNG trade released at year end 1997, this from Ocean Shipping Consultants Ltd., Surrey, U.K. The study was done too early, however, to consider the effects of the financial problems roiling Asia

Growing media [Chapter 5

Science.gov (United States)

Douglass F. Jacobs; Thomas D. Landis; Tara Luna

2009-01-01

Selecting the proper growing medium is one of the most important considerations in nursery plant production. A growing medium can be defined as a substance through which roots grow and extract water and nutrients. In native plant nurseries, a growing medium can consist of native soil but is more commonly an "artificial soil" composed of materials such as peat...

Short-run and long-run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinay, Galip

2007-01-01

The aim of this study is to attempt to estimate the short-run and the long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in Turkey by the recent autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. As a developing country, Turkey meets its growing demand for oil principally by foreign suppliers. Thus, the study focuses on modelling the demand for imported crude oil using annual data covering the period 1980-2005. The bounds test results reveal that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between the crude oil import and the explanatory variables: nominal price and income, but not in the model that includes real price in domestic currency. The long-run parameters are estimated through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model, and then the short-run dynamics are estimated by the error correction model. The estimated models pass the diagnostic tests successfully. The findings reveal that the income and price elasticities of import demand for crude oil are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run

Factors Influencing Demand for a Producer-Owned Beef Retail Outlet

OpenAIRE

Lusk, Jayson L.; Cevallos, Edgar

2004-01-01

As the farm-to-retail price spread continues to grow, come cattle producers a beginning to consider integrating into the retail sector. Such a venture would require large investments in capital with uncertain return. This study seeks to determine the potential success of a stand-alone retail outlet selling “all natural†beef in an affluent area of Jackson, MS. Using choice-based conjoint analysis, demand for the new retail outlet is modeled as a function of the beef price at the store, dis...

Supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Yasuo; Tsunoda, Miyuki

2017-01-01

Japan's economy has gradually expanded, with real GDP in the first quarter of 2017 becoming positive growth for five consecutive quarters for the first time since 2005 to 2006. Although the uncertain factors are increasing both in terms of politics and economy, the world economy is also growing moderately. As the main premises in the standard scenario, the following are supposed: (1) world economy grows moderately, with worldwide growth rate reaching 3.0% in FY2017 and 3.3% in FY2018, (2) exchange rate is about ¥115/$ in both FY2017 and FY2018 average, (3) as for nuclear power generation, cumulative restarted unit number reaches 10 basis until the end of FY2018, with average months of operation in FY2018 reaching 9 months, and with power generation amount reaching 65.6 billion kWh (7% of the power supply composition ratio), and (4) as for the supply and demand for power, the supply reserve ratio of 3% necessary for stable electric power supply can be secured nationwide. Thus, the supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018 was made. The following various evaluation analyses were carried out: (1) macro economy, (2) production activities, (3) primary energy domestic supply, (4) final energy consumption, (5) electricity sales volume and power supply composition (electric power companies), (6) city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, and (7) in-depth analysis; demand trend of light oil, renewable energy power generation, and effects of restart of nuclear power plants. (A.O.)

Atmospheric ammonia and its impacts on regional air quality over the megacity of Shanghai, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shanshan; Nan, Jialiang; Shi, Chanzhen; Fu, Qingyan; Gao, Song; Wang, Dongfang; Cui, Huxiong; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Zhou, Bin

2015-01-01

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) has great environmental implications due to its important role in ecosystem and global nitrogen cycle, as well as contribution to secondary particle formation. Here, we report long-term continuous measurements of NH3 at different locations (i.e. urban, industrial and rural) in Shanghai, China, which provide an unprecedented portrait of temporal and spatial characteristics of atmospheric NH3 in and around this megacity. In addition to point emission sources, air masses originated from or that have passed over ammonia rich areas, e.g. rural and industrial sites, increase the observed NH3 concentrations inside the urban area of Shanghai. Remarkable high-frequency NH3 variations were measured at the industrial site, indicating instantaneous nearby industrial emission peaks. Additionally, we observed strong positive exponential correlations between NH4+/(NH4++NH3) and sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols, PM2.5 mass concentrations, implying a considerable contribution of gas-to-particle conversion of ammonia to SNA aerosol formation. Lower temperature and higher humidity conditions were found to favor the conversion of gaseous ammonia to particle ammonium, particularly in autumn. Although NH3 is currently not included in China’s emission control policies of air pollution precursors, our results highlight the urgency and importance of monitoring gaseous ammonia and improving its emission inventory in and around Shanghai. PMID:26514559

Home Network Technologies and Automating Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McParland, Charles

2009-12-01

Over the past several years, interest in large-scale control of peak energy demand and total consumption has increased. While motivated by a number of factors, this interest has primarily been spurred on the demand side by the increasing cost of energy and, on the supply side by the limited ability of utilities to build sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet unrestrained future demand. To address peak electricity use Demand Response (DR) systems are being proposed to motivate reductions in electricity use through the use of price incentives. DR systems are also be design to shift or curtail energy demand at critical times when the generation, transmission, and distribution systems (i.e. the 'grid') are threatened with instabilities. To be effectively deployed on a large-scale, these proposed DR systems need to be automated. Automation will require robust and efficient data communications infrastructures across geographically dispersed markets. The present availability of widespread Internet connectivity and inexpensive, reliable computing hardware combined with the growing confidence in the capabilities of distributed, application-level communications protocols suggests that now is the time for designing and deploying practical systems. Centralized computer systems that are capable of providing continuous signals to automate customers reduction of power demand, are known as Demand Response Automation Servers (DRAS). The deployment of prototype DRAS systems has already begun - with most initial deployments targeting large commercial and industrial (C & I) customers. An examination of the current overall energy consumption by economic sector shows that the C & I market is responsible for roughly half of all energy consumption in the US. On a per customer basis, large C & I customers clearly have the most to offer - and to gain - by participating in DR programs to reduce peak demand. And, by concentrating on a small number of relatively

Water stress as a trigger of demand change: exploring the implications for drought planning

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.; Portney, K. E.

2015-12-01

Drought in the Anthropocene is a function of both supply and demand. Despite its importance, demand is typically incorporated into planning models exogenously using a single scenario of demand change over time. Alternatively, demand is incorporated endogenously in hydro-economic models based on the assumption of rationality. However, actors are constrained by limited information and information processing capabilities, casting doubt on the rationality assumption. Though the risk of water shortage changes incrementally with demand growth and hydrologic change, significant shifts in management are punctuated and often linked to periods of stress. The observation of lasting decreases in per capita demands in a number of cities during periods of water stress prompts an alternate hypothesis: the occurrence of water stress increases the tendency of cities to promote and enforce efficient technologies and behaviors and the tendency of users to adopt them. We show the relevance of this hypothesis by building a model of a hypothetical surface water system to answer the following question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? The model links the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). Under SOP, demand is fulfilled unless available supply drops below demand; under HP, water releases are reduced in anticipation of a deficit to decrease the risk of a large shortfall. The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decrease during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies.

Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

2006-01-01

This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Shobaki, S.; Mohsen, M.

2007-01-01

Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs

Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al-Shobaki, S. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Industrial Engineering; Mohsen, M. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

2007-07-01

Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs.

Impulsivity and alcohol demand in relation to combined alcohol and caffeine use.

Science.gov (United States)

Amlung, Michael; Few, Lauren R; Howland, Jonathan; Rohsenow, Damaris J; Metrik, Jane; MacKillop, James

2013-12-01

Problematic alcohol use among college students continues to be a prominent concern in the United States, including the growing trend of consuming caffeinated alcoholic beverages (CABs). Epidemiologically, CAB use is associated with incremental risks from drinking, although these relationships could be due to common predisposing factors rather than specifically due to CABs. This study investigated the relationship between CAB use, alcohol misuse, and person-level characteristics, including impulsive personality traits, delayed reward discounting, and behavioral economic demand for alcohol use. Participants were 273 regularly drinking undergraduate students. Frequency of CAB use was assessed over the past month. A multidimensional assessment of impulsivity included the UPPS-P questionnaire, which measures positive and negative urgency, premeditation (lack thereof), perseverance (lack thereof), and sensation seeking (Lynam, Smith, Whiteside, & Cyders, 2007), and a validated questionnaire-based measure of delayed reward discounting. Demand was assessed via a hypothetical alcohol purchase task. Frequency of CAB consumption was significantly higher in men than in women and was also associated with higher impulsivity on the majority of the UPPS-P subscales, steeper delayed reward discounting, and greater demand for alcohol. Significant correlations between CAB use and both alcohol demand and lack of premeditation remained present after including level of alcohol misuse in partial correlations. In a hierarchical linear regression incorporating demographic, demand, and impulsivity variables, CAB frequency continued to be a significant predictor of hazardous alcohol use. These results suggest that although there are significant associations between CAB consumption and gender, impulsivity, and alcohol demand, CAB use continues to be associated with alcohol misuse after controlling for these variables.

Morphometric study of the fibrosis and mast cell count in the circular colon musculature of chronic Chagas patients with and without megacolon Estudo morfométrico da fibrose e do número de mastócitos na muscular circular do cólon de chagásicos crônicos com e sem megacólon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simone Wanderley Pinheiro

2003-07-01

Full Text Available A morphometric study of the circular colon musculature was performed, in which the mast cell count was determined and the connective fibrous tissue in this layer was measured. The objective was to gain better understanding of Chagas megacolon morphology and contribute towards the knowledge of fibrosis pathogenesis in Chagas megas. An evaluation was made of 15 distal sigmoid rings from Chagas patients with megacolon (MCC, 15 without megacolon (CSMC and 15 non-Chagas patients (NC. The rings were fixed in formol, embedded in paraffin, and 7mm thick sections were cut and stained using Azan-Heidenhain and Giemsa. The mast cell count and fibrosis were greater in the MCC group than in the CSMC and NC groups (p Com os objetivos de conhecer melhor a morfologia do megacólon chagásico e contribuir para o conhecimento da patogênese da fibrose dos megas, realizou-se estudo morfométrico na muscular circular do cólon, contando-se o número de mastócitos e medindo o conjuntivo fibroso nessa camada. Foram avaliados anéis do sigmóide distal de 15 chagásicos com megacólon (MCC, 15 sem megacólon (CSMC e 15 não chagásicos (NC. Os anéis foram fixados em formol, incluídos em parafina, cortados com 7mm de espessura e corados por Azan-Heidenhain e Giemsa. O número de mastócitos e a fibrose foram maiores no grupo com MCC em relação ao CSMC e NC (p < 0,05; teste de Kruskal-Wallis; não houve diferença significante entre os dois últimos grupos. Diante destes achados, é possível, que haja relação entre mastocitose e fibrose no megacólon chagásico, como já se demonstrou em outras doenças.

Does age modify the association between physical work demands and deterioration of self-rated general health?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burr, Hermann; Pohrt, Anne; Rugulies, Reiner

2017-01-01

Objective Due to the growing proportion of older employees in the work force in several countries, the importance of age in the association between work and health is becoming increasingly relevant. Few studies have investigated whether age modifies the association of physical work demands...... with health. We hypothesized that the association of demanding body postures with deteriorated self-rated health (SRH) is stronger among older employees than among younger employees. Method We analyzed three 5-year cohorts in the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study comprising 8318 observations from 5204...... 33–43 years; and 1.17, 95% CI 0.42–1.93, for the age group 44–54 years). Conclusion The study findings suggest that demanding body postures have a stronger impact on health among older compared to younger employees....

Impacts of Demand-Side Management on Electrical Power Systems: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hussein Jumma Jabir

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Electricity demand has grown over the past few years and will continue to grow in the future. The increase in electricity demand is mainly due to industrialization and the shift from a conventional to a smart-grid paradigm. The number of microgrids, renewable energy sources, plug-in electric vehicles and energy storage systems have also risen in recent years. As a result, future electricity grids have to be revamped and adapt to increasing load levels. Thus, new complications associated with future electrical power systems and technologies must be considered. Demand-side management (DSM programs offer promising solutions to these issues and can considerably improve the reliability and financial performances of electrical power systems. This paper presents a review of various initiatives, techniques, impacts and recent developments of the DSM of electrical power systems. The potential benefits derived by implementing DSM in electrical power networks are presented. An extensive literature survey on the impacts of DSM on the reliability of electrical power systems is also provided for the first time. The research gaps within the broad field of DSM are also identified to provide directions for future work.

Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Von Estorff, U.

2014-01-01

The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

Innovation and Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Esben Sloth

2007-01-01

the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

China's Growing Natural Gas Insecurity and the Potential of Chinese Shale Gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seaman, John

2013-04-01

China is poised for a dramatic increase in its demand for natural gas. As total energy demand has risen to record levels in the last five years, China has found itself in an increasingly difficult bind: the social and environmental burden from coal is becoming too heavy to bear and a growing dependence on foreign oil is becoming strategically more risky with the passage of time. China's policy-makers and strategists continue to favor indigenous resources whenever possible, but projected increases in demand are so great and the cost of nuclear and renewable energy sources still so high that natural gas has become an increasingly natural choice. The country's gas demand is projected to double in the next three years, reaching 260 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) by 2015 as Beijing has set a target to increase the part of natural gas from 4% of China's energy mix today to more than 8% by the end of the 12. Five Year Plan (2011-2015). Further projections show that Chinese gas demand could reach 400 bcm/y in 2020 and 550 bcm/y or more in 2030. While this growing demand for gas will help China achieve its goals of reducing the carbon intensity of its GDP and cut much of the pollution from coal, it is also leading China further down a path it has long hoped to avoid: greater dependence on strategic energy imports. A pipeline project to pump gas from Turkmenistan through Central Asia began delivering supplies in 2009 and is expected to reach 40 bcm/y in the near future and possibly even 65 bcm/y or more by 2020. Another pipeline from Myanmar is expected to enter into service in 2013 and would be capable of delivering up to 12 bcm/y. Negotiations with Russia for pipelines that could deliver anywhere from 30-70 bcm/y are deadlocked over pricing, but the construction of LNG import terminals suggests that China could be capable of importing between 40-50 bcm/y of this sea-borne gas by 2015 and possibly even 100 bcm/y or more by 2020. China's increasing reliance on imports

Challenges of breeding potato cultivars to grow in various environments and to meet different demands

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, Kazuyuki; Asano, Kenji; Tamiya, Seiji; Nakao, Takashi; Mori, Motoyuki

2015-01-01

The potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is cultivated all year round in Japan by using four types of cropping: summer and winter croppings, and double cropping in spring and fall. In each cropping season, growth conditions such as temperature, day length, and growing period, differ drastically; thus, different cultivars adapted to each environment are required. Breeding stations are located in both summer cropping areas and double cropping areas, and cultivars suitable for each cropping system are developed. The required cultivars differ according to cropping type and according to use such as table use, food processing, and starch production. The qualities necessary for each purpose differ and are therefore evaluated accordingly. Improvements in pest and disease resistance and in yield abilities are important as common breeding targets for all purposes. To develop potato cultivars that meet different needs, breeders have continued efforts to improve these traits. In this review, we introduce our approaches to developing new potato cultivars. We also discuss problems predicted in the future and introduce our efforts on broadening genetic diversity. PMID:25931976

Northeast U.S. update: price and demand issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucy, M.S.

1997-01-01

The issues affecting natural gas prices in the northeast United States were discussed. The supply of natural gas is high because of new pipeline projects and new market entrants. The demand for natural gas is also high because of nuclear plant closings, new electric plants, the clean air act, and economic growth. The supply of natural gas is expected to grow in the Northeast by 27 per cent by the year 2000. Future pipeline projects from Western Canada to Chicago, New York and Boston were examined and their effect on supply and pricing were analyzed. As another variable that affects the pricing of natural gas, a list of the nuclear plants that have closed and which may soon close in the northeast United States was provided, along with a list of new gas fired plants. Other factors affecting winter market prices in the northeast United States for 1997-1998 include El Nino, warm weather forecasts, NYMEX forecasts, natural gas demand, and low oil prices, were also reviewed. Cultivating long term comprehensive relationships, and focusing on customer service were considered the key to successful Canadian export growth. 7 tabs., 5 figs

Fast-growing Acer rubrum differs from slow-growing Quercus alba in leaf, xylem and hydraulic trait coordination responses to simulated acid rain.

Science.gov (United States)

Medeiros, Juliana S; Tomeo, Nicholas J; Hewins, Charlotte R; Rosenthal, David M

2016-08-01

We investigated the effects of historic soil chemistry changes associated with acid rain, i.e., reduced soil pH and a shift from nitrogen (N)- to phosphorus (P)-limitation, on the coordination of leaf water demand and xylem hydraulic supply traits in two co-occurring temperate tree species differing in growth rate. Using a full-factorial design (N × P × pH), we measured leaf nutrient content, water relations, leaf-level and canopy-level gas exchange, total biomass and allocation, as well as stem xylem anatomy and hydraulic function for greenhouse-grown saplings of fast-growing Acer rubrum (L.) and slow-growing Quercus alba (L.). We used principle component analysis to characterize trait coordination. We found that N-limitation, but not P-limitation, had a significant impact on plant water relations and hydraulic coordination of both species. Fast-growing A. rubrum made hydraulic adjustments in response to N-limitation, but trait coordination was variable within treatments and did not fully compensate for changing allocation across N-availability. For slow-growing Q. alba, N-limitation engendered more strict coordination of leaf and xylem traits, resulting in similar leaf water content and hydraulic function across all treatments. Finally, low pH reduced the propensity of both species to adjust leaf water relations and xylem anatomical traits in response to nutrient manipulations. Our data suggest that a shift from N- to P-limitation has had a negative impact on the water relations and hydraulic function of A. rubrum to a greater extent than for Q. alba We suggest that current expansion of A. rubrum populations could be tempered by acidic N-deposition, which may restrict it to more mesic microsites. The disruption of hydraulic acclimation and coordination at low pH is emphasized as an interesting area of future study. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Leaders Growing Leaders: Designing a Tier-Based Leadership Program for Surgeons.

Science.gov (United States)

Torbeck, Laura; Rozycki, Grace; Dunnington, Gary

2018-02-07

Leadership has emerged as a crucial component of professional development for physicians in academic medicine. Most leadership skills can be learned and therefore best practices of delivering leadership development are in high demand. For practicing surgeons, specific strategies to teach leadership have been lacking. The purpose of this paper is to describe the structure of a tier-based leadership development program called Leaders Growing Leaders, to identify the major curricular components to each tier including measures and outcomes, and to share lessons learned for those who may want to begin a similar leadership development program. Copyright © 2018 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contribution of Fossil Fuels and Wood Combustion to Carcinogenic PAHs in the Ambient Atmosphere of a Tropical Megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Jyethi, D. S.; Khillare, P. S.; Sarkar, S.

2015-12-01

Weekly particulate matter sampling was carried out at a peri-urban site located in megacity Delhi, India for 1 year (2009-2010) and the annual mean PM10 level was found to be ˜9 times the World Health Organization limit. Seasonal variation of PAHs (range 37.2-74.0 ng m-3) was significant with winter values being 72% and 68% higher than summer and monsoon respectively. Principal component analysis coupled with multiple linear regression identified diesel, natural gas and lubricating oil combustion (49.5%), wood combustion (25.4%), gasoline (15.5%) and coal combustion (9.6%) sources for the observed PAHs. Heavy traffic on the national highway and arterial roads and domestic emissions from suburban households in the vicinity of the site appeared to have significantly affected its air quality. A substantial portion (˜55%) of the aerosol PAH load was comprised of carcinogenic species, which yielded a considerably high lifetime inhalation cancer risk estimate (8.7E-04). If considered as a conservative lower-bound estimate, this risk translates into ˜211 excess cancer cases for lifetime inhalation exposure to the observed PAH concentrations in Delhi.

Eldercare demands, mental health, and work performance: the moderating role of satisfaction with eldercare tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zacher, Hannes; Jimmieson, Nerina L; Winter, Gabriele

2012-01-01

Due to demographic changes, a growing number of employees provide in-home care to an elderly family member. Previous research suggested a negative relationship between employees' eldercare demands and their work performance. However, the empirical nature of this relationship and its boundary conditions and mediating mechanisms have been neglected. The goal of this multisource study was to examine a mediated-moderation model of eldercare demands, mental health, and work performance. Drawing on the theory of conservation of resources (Hobfoll, 1989), it was expected that employees' satisfaction with eldercare tasks would buffer the negative relationship between eldercare demands and work performance, and that mental health would mediate this moderating effect. Data were collected from 165 employees providing in-home eldercare, as well as from one colleague and one family member of each employee. Results of mediated-moderation analyses supported the hypothesized model. The findings suggest that interventions that aim to increase employees' satisfaction with eldercare tasks may help protect employees from the negative effects of high eldercare demands on mental health and, subsequently, on work performance.

Habit Formation in Natural Cheese Consumption An Approach Based on Dynamic Demand Analysis

OpenAIRE

WAKABAYASHI, Katsufumi

2010-01-01

In expectation of growing cheese consumption, natural cheese production is being increased to reduce surplus milk and create high added value in raw milk. Other studies found positive trends in cheese consumption. However, those studies neither clarified recent trends, nor distinguished natural cheese from processed cheese. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the structure of natural cheese consumption, focusing on habit formation. We test structural changes in cheese demand using dynamic...

Demand driven decision support for efficient water resources allocation in irrigated agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Schuetze, Niels; Grießbach, Ulrike Ulrike; Röhm, Patric; Stange, Peter; Wagner, Michael; Seidel, Sabine; Werisch, Stefan; Barfus, Klemens

2014-05-01

Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions, such as longer dry spells in the summer months, may have an increasing impact on the agriculture in Saxony (Eastern Germany). For this reason, and, additionally, declining amounts of rainfall during the growing season the use of irrigation will be more important in future in Eastern Germany. To cope with this higher demand of water, a new decision support framework is developed which focuses on an integrated management of both irrigation water supply and demand. For modeling the regional water demand, local (and site-specific) water demand functions are used which are derived from the optimized agronomic response at farms scale. To account for climate variability the agronomic response is represented by stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) which provide the estimated yield subject to the minimum amount of irrigation water. These functions take into account the different soil types, crops and stochastically generated climate scenarios. By applying mathematical interpolation and optimization techniques, the SCWPF's are used to compute the water demand considering different constraints, for instance variable and fix costs or the producer price. This generic approach enables the computation for both multiple crops at farm scale as well as of the aggregated response to water pricing at a regional scale for full and deficit irrigation systems. Within the SAPHIR (SAxonian Platform for High Performance Irrigation) project a prototype of a decision support system is developed which helps to evaluate combined water supply and demand management policies for an effective and efficient utilization of water in order to meet future demands. The prototype is implemented as a web-based decision support system and it is based on a service-oriented geo-database architecture.

Aligning PEV Charging Times with Electricity Supply and Demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodge, Cabell [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-06-05

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a growing source of electricity consumption that could either exacerbate supply shortages or smooth electricity demand curves. Extensive research has explored how vehicle-grid integration (VGI) can be optimized by controlling PEV charging timing or providing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services, such as storing energy in vehicle batteries and returning it to the grid at peak times. While much of this research has modeled charging, implementation in the real world requires a cost-effective solution that accounts for consumer behavior. To function across different contexts, several types of charging administrators and methods of control are necessary to minimize costs in the VGI context.

Aerosol optical properties in a rural environment near the mega-city Guangzhou, China: implications for regional air pollution, radiative forcing and remote sensing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. H. Zhang

2008-09-01

Full Text Available The scattering and absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols is a key element of the Earth's radiative energy balance and climate. The optical properties of aerosol particles are, however, highly variable and not well characterized, especially near newly emerging mega-cities. In this study, aerosol optical properties were measured at a rural site approximately 60 km northwest of the mega-city Guangzhou in southeast China. The measurements were part of the PRIDE-PRD2006 intensive campaign, covering the period of 1–30 July 2006. Scattering and absorption coefficients of dry aerosol particles with diameters up to 10 μm (PM₁₀ were determined with a three-wavelength integrating nephelometer and with a photoacoustic spectrometer, respectively.

Averaged over the measurement campaign (arithmetic mean ± standard deviation, the total scattering coefficients were 200±133 Mm⁻¹ (450 nm, 151±103 Mm⁻¹ (550 nm and 104±72 Mm⁻¹ (700 nm and the absorption coefficient was 34.3±26.5 Mm⁻¹ (532 nm. The average Ångström exponent was 1.46±0.21 (450 nm/700 nm and the average single scattering albedo was 0.82±0.07 (532 nm with minimum values as low as 0.5. The low single scattering albedo values indicate a high abundance, as well as strong sources, of light absorbing carbon (LAC. The ratio of LAC to CO concentration was highly variable throughout the campaign, indicating a complex mix of different combustion sources. The scattering and absorption coefficients, as well as the Ångström exponent and single scattering albedo, exhibited pronounced diurnal cycles, which can be attributed to boundary layer mixing effects and enhanced nighttime emissions of LAC (diesel soot from regulated truck traffic. The daytime average mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.87 appears to be more suitable for climate modeling purposes than the 24-h average of 0.82, as the latter value is

Outlook for world nuclear power generation and long-term energy supply and demand situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuhji

2012-01-01

In this article, the author presents a long-term outlook for the world's nuclear generating capacity, taking into account the nuclear policy changes after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. World primary energy demand will grow from 11.2 billion tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2009 to 17.3 billion toe in 2035. Along with this rapid increase in global energy consumption, the world's nuclear generating capacity will grow from 392 GW in 2010 to 484 GW in 2020 and 574 GW in 2035 in the 'Reference scenario'. Even in the 'Low nuclear scenario', where the maximum impact of Fukushima accident to the nuclear policies of each government is assumed, it will continue to grow in the future, exceeding 500 GW in 2035. In particular, Asian countries such as China and India will lead the growth both in the energy demand and in the nuclear power capacity. Therefore, it is essential to better ensure the safety of nuclear power generation. It is important for technologically developed countries, including Japan, to make active contributions to the establishment of a global nuclear safety control system. On the other hand, energy security and global warming will continue to be major issues, which will make it indispensable to make the best effort to save energy and expand renewable energy utilization. Japan is competitive in energy-saving and environmental conservation technologies, thus further development and utilization of there technologies should be a key option of Japan's growth growth strategy in the future. (author)

Russian gas exports have potential to grow through 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandez, Rafael

2009-01-01

This paper analyzes the potential for Russian gas export growth through the next decade and concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption. From the production side, the pace of growth depends on the status of gas reserves and, more importantly, on the investment program pursued by the State-owned gas giant Gazprom. From the demand side, evolution depends on the way Russia's wide potential for gas savings is managed. Through this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian gas exports. In the most positive, diversification of exports will be possible. In the most negative, Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.

Asian oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesharaki, F.

2005-01-01

This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

Demand for Neste's City products grows strongly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

Finland's oil, chemicals, and gas company, Neste Corporation, is well on the road to better financial performance after a very difficult year in 1992. Among the factors contributing to this optimism are Neste's pioneering low environmental impact traffic fuels. Neste Corporation's net sales in 1993 rose 9.9 % on 1992 figures to USD 11,011 million. Investments totalled USD 681 million. Profitability also improved during 1993, and the operating margin rose by 57 %, despite the recession affecting the Finnish economy and the instability of the international market. The operational loss for the year before extraordinary items, reserves, and taxes was USD 265 million, one-third less than in 1992. Neste's strategy has been to achieve a strong position in the Baltic Rim region by becoming the quality and cost leader in oil refining, and by expanding Neste's position in its key markets. A total of 3.3 million tonnes of petroleum products were exported from Finland in 1993. Neste's most important export markets were Sweden, Germany, Poland, the Baltic countries, and the St. Petersburg region. Some 20 % of exports went to customers outside Europe. In addition to Finland, Neste has concertedly developed its service station network in Poland and the Baltic countries

An overview of the energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavergne, R.

2009-01-01

According to IEA the world demand for energy is likely to grow by 45% from now to 2030 if today's tendency is extrapolated and coal would represent the third of this energy increase. The world CO 2 releases might have grown by 55% in 2030 compared to today's releases. Today at the world scale, the sector that generates most greenhouse effect gases is the energy production (26%) followed by industry (19%). France's strategy concerning climate change and energy policy is recalled and fits with European Union's action plan. This action plan in the energy sector follows 6 axes: -) the setting of an European market of energy, -) +20% in energy efficiency by 2020, -) 20% of renewable energies in the energy mix by 2020, -) the development of a European technology for a low carbon future, -) the development of nuclear energy, and -) The setting of a European foreign energy policy. (A.C.)

Lurgi MegaMethanol technology. Delivering the building blocks for the future fuel and monomer demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wurzel, T. [Lurgi AG, Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

2006-07-01

The paper describes the central role of methanol within a changing environment with respect to feedstock availability as well as steadily growing demand in fuel and monomer demand. The current large-scale production facilities are described with respect to the technological challenges in order to ensure the availability of sufficient methanol for down-stream applications. Different down-stream applications are described which clearly confirm that methanol is the dominant C1-building block due to its chemical flexibility. It is concluded that by means of the implementation of two MTP (Methanol to Propylene) projects in China initiated the era of ''down-stream methanol'' has begun in the industry. (orig.)

Characteristics of atmospheric ammonia and its relationship with vehicle emissions in a megacity in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ruyu; Ye, Xingnan; Liu, Yuxuan; Li, Haowen; Yang, Xin; Chen, Jianmin; Gao, Wei; Yin, Zi

2018-06-01

Atmospheric ammonia plays an important role in haze formation in East China. In this study, long-term measurements of NH3 concentrations were implemented at urban, suburban, and tunnel sites in Shanghai, the largest city in East China. The average monthly ammonia concentrations at the urban site varied from 3.7 ppb to 14.5 ppb and exhibited the highest levels in summer and lowest levels in winter, indicating that the biological emissions and agriculture in the surrounding areas are important contributors. The suburban NH3 levels were significantly higher in autumn compared to those at the urban site, indicating the important contribution of agricultural activities. Regardless of the season, the difference of NH3 concentrations between the tunnel and urban sites remained almost constant. On average, the tunnel NH3 level was three times higher than that of the nearby urban site, indicating strong vehicle NH3 emissions in the tunnel. The tunnel NH3 levels on weekdays were comparable to those on weekends, a result that was in agreement with the daily average traffic volume. It was estimated that the vehicle emissions contributed 12.6-24.6% of the atmospheric NH3 in the urban area and 3.8-7.5% for the whole area of Shanghai. Our results suggest that vehicle NH3 emissions should be considered, although agricultural emissions are still more important for mitigating severe haze pollution during wintertime in the megacities of China.

The impact of point-of-sale data in demand planning in the South African clothing retail industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas N. Raza

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background: In modern days’ dynamic consumer markets, supply chains need to be value driven and consumer oriented. Demand planning allows supply chain members to focus on the consumer and create optimal value. In demand planning, Point-of-Sale (POS data are an essential input to the process thereof; however, literature suggests that POS-based demand planning is often overlooked by demand planners in practice. Objective: The main purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which South African clothing retailers use POS data in demand planning. Method: This study followed the grounded theory approach based on the collection of qualitative data. The data collected was analysed following the grounded theory analysis using codes that resulted in various categories which then developed into themes. Findings: Findings suggest that companies within the clothing retail industry make considerable use of POS data and is a fundamental input factor in the demand planning process. However, this study also found that POS data cannot be applied in the planning for all types of clothing products, and that there are variables other than POS data that form a critical part of the demand planning process. Conclusion: POS data plays a fundamental role is the demand planning process and should be accurately collected and used with other qualitative and quantitative factors as an input factor to the demand planning process. The role of POS data in demand planning is expected to grow as customers are becoming increasingly demanding concerning customer service levels.

Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Lixuan; Zhou, Nan; Feng, Wei; Khanna, Nina; Fridley, David; Zhao, Yongqiang; Sandholt, Kaare

2016-01-01

China hosts a large amount of building stocks, which is nearly 50 billion square meters. Moreover, annual new construction is growing fast, representing half of the world's total. The trend is expected to continue through the year 2050. Impressive demand for new residential and commercial construction, relative shorter average building lifetime, and higher material intensities have driven massive domestic production of energy intensive building materials such as cement and steel. This paper developed a bottom-up building stock turnover model to project the growths, retrofits and retirements of China's residential and commercial building floor space from 2010 to 2050. It also applied typical material intensities and energy intensities to estimate building materials demand and energy consumed to produce these building materials. By conducting scenario analyses of building lifetime, it identified significant potentials of building materials and energy demand conservation. This study underscored the importance of addressing building material efficiency, improving building lifetime and quality, and promoting compact urban development to reduce energy and environment consequences in China. - Highlights: •Growths of China's building floorspace were projected from 2010 to 2050. •A building stock turnover model was built to reflect annual building stock dynamics. •Building related materials and energy demand were projected.

Global impacts of energy demand on the freshwater resources of nations.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Robert Alan; Scott, Kate A; Flörke, Martina; Brown, Gareth; Ewers, Robert M; Farmer, Elizabeth; Kapos, Valerie; Muggeridge, Ann; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Taylor, Gail; Barrett, John; Eigenbrod, Felix

2015-12-01

The growing geographic disconnect between consumption of goods, the extraction and processing of resources, and the environmental impacts associated with production activities makes it crucial to factor global trade into sustainability assessments. Using an empirically validated environmentally extended global trade model, we examine the relationship between two key resources underpinning economies and human well--being-energy and freshwater. A comparison of three energy sectors (petroleum, gas, and electricity) reveals that freshwater consumption associated with gas and electricity production is largely confined within the territorial boundaries where demand originates. This finding contrasts with petroleum, which exhibits a varying ratio of territorial to international freshwater consumption, depending on the origin of demand. For example, although the United States and China have similar demand associated with the petroleum sector, international freshwater consumption is three times higher for the former than the latter. Based on mapping patterns of freshwater consumption associated with energy sectors at subnational scales, our analysis also reveals concordance between pressure on freshwater resources associated with energy production and freshwater scarcity in a number of river basins globally. These energy-driven pressures on freshwater resources in areas distant from the origin of energy demand complicate the design of policy to ensure security of fresh water and energy supply. Although much of the debate around energy is focused on greenhouse gas emissions, our findings highlight the need to consider the full range of consequences of energy production when designing policy.

Sustainability Analysis and Market Demand Estimation in the Retail Industry through a Convolutional Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luyao Wang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The Chinese retail industry is expected to grow dramatically over the next few years, owing to the rapid increase in purchasing power of Chinese consumers. Retail managers should analyze the market demands and avoid dull sales to promote the sustainable development of the retail industry. Economic sustainability in the retail industry, which refers to a suitable return of investment, requires the implementation of precise product allocation strategies in different regions. This study proposed a hybrid model to evaluate economic sustainability in the preparation of goods of retail shops on the basis of market demand evaluation. Through a grid-based convolutional neural network, a regression model was first established to model the relationship between consumer distribution and the potential market demand. Then, another model was proposed to evaluate the sustainability among regions based on their supply-demand analysis. An experiment was conducted based on the actual sales data of retail shops in Guiyang, China. Results showed an immense diversity of sustainability in the entire city and three classes of regions were distinguished, namely, high, moderate, and limited. Our model was proven to be effective in the sustainability evaluation of supply and demand in the retail industry after validation showed that its accuracy reached 92.8%.

A hybrid self-adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization–Genetic Algorithm–Radial Basis Function model for annual electricity demand prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Shiwei; Wang, Ke; Wei, Yi-Ming

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid self-adaptive PSO–GA-RBF model is proposed for electricity demand prediction. • Each mixed-coding particle is composed by two coding parts of binary and real. • Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan. • The proposed model has a simpler structure or higher estimating precision than other ANN models. • No matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly. - Abstract: The present study proposes a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimized Radial Basis Function (PSO–GA-RBF) neural network for prediction of annual electricity demand. In the model, each mixed-coding particle (or chromosome) is composed of two coding parts, binary and real, which optimizes the structure of the RBF by GA operation and the parameters of the basis and weights by a PSO–GA implementation. Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan by using optimized networks. The results shows that (1) the proposed PSO–GA-RBF model has a simpler network structure (fewer hidden neurons) or higher estimation precision than other selected ANN models; and (2) no matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly at average annual growth rates of about 9.7–11.5%. By 2020, the electricity demand in the planning scenario, the highest among the scenarios, will be 95.85 billion kW h. The lowest demand is estimated for the business-as-usual scenario, and will be 88.45 billion kW h

Pattern of demand for children in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, T

1992-01-01

The study aim was to determine the pattern of demand for children and to suggest ways to introduce the idea of a small-family norm and reduce the unmet need for contraception in Pakistan. The concept of demand for children included the wantedness of the last birth and the timing of the next birth and changed with stage in reproductive life cycle. Data were obtained from the Pakistan Contraception Prevalence Survey of 1984/85. Pakistan's strong patriarchal system emphasized rapid achievement of first pregnancy in order to assure the perpetuation of the lineage. Female status, even with advanced education, emphasized fecundity and producing a male heir. The birthing pattern among rural and urban lower-class women is to bear 3-4 children early in marriage. Evidence from prior surveys showed that educated women plan for a delay in second birth. Of the 6655 ever pregnant and nonsterilized women, about 48% of currently married women desired discontinuation of childbearing. 18% desired a delay of childbearing by 2 years and 10% desired no more children after a last undesired pregnancy. Unmet need was estimated at 17% of all women in the sample. Women desiring no more children were primarily older with 6-8 prior births. Indirect fertility estimates were generated by using Arriaga's techniques for stages of family formation. The resulting estimates showed that higher-parity women desiring no more children still had 2 more children, which was evidence of unmet need. Those desiring more children had higher fertility than those not desiring more children. These women also showed different patterns in their total demand for children, ideal family size, currently living children, and desire for their next birth. Ideal size tended to rise over the length of a marriage, which may mean that women with growing families may justify unwanted fertility. Duration of marriage was viewed as a reasonable indicator of need for fertility control and the concomitant need for outreach

­­Drought, water conservation, and water demand rebound in California

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, P.; Ajami, N.

2017-12-01

There is growing recognition that dynamic community values, preferences, and water use behaviors are important drivers of water demand in addition to external factors such as temperature and precipitation. Water demand drivers have been extensively studied, yet they have traditionally been applied to models that assume static conditions and usually do not account for potential societal changes in response to increased scarcity awareness. For example, following a period of sustained low demand such as during a drought, communities often increase water use during a hydrologically wet period, a phenomenon known as "rebounding" water use. Yet previous experiences show the extent of this rebound is not a straightforward function of policy and efficiency improvements, but may also reflect short-term or long-lasting change in community behavior, which are not easily captured by models that assume stationarity. In this study we explore cycles of decreased water demand during drought and subsequent water use rebound observed in California in recent decades. We have developed a novel dynamic system model for water demand in three diverse but interconnected service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area, exposing local trends of changing water use behaviors and long-term impacts on water demand since 1980 to the present. In this model, we apply the concept of social memory, defined as a community's inherited knowledge about hazardous events or degraded environmental conditions from past experiences. While this concept has been applied to further conceptual understanding of socio-hydrologic systems in response to hydrological extremes, to the best of our knowledge this the first study to incorporate social memory to model the water demand rebound phenomenon and to use such a model in the examination of changing dynamics validated by historical data. In addition, we take a closer look at water demand during the recent historic drought in California from 2012-16, and relate our

PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Yu. Sulimov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

Observation of regional air pollutant transport between the megacity Beijing and the North China Plain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Li

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Megacities have strong interactions with the surrounding regions through transport of air pollutants. It has been frequently addressed that the air quality of Beijing is influenced by the influx of air pollutants from the North China Plain (NCP. Estimations of air pollutant cross-boundary transport between Beijing and the NCP are important for air quality management. However, evaluation of cross-boundary transport using long-term observations is very limited. Using the observational results of the gaseous pollutants SO2, NO, NO2, O3, and CO from August 2006 to October 2008 at the Yufa site, a cross-boundary site between the megacity Beijing and the NCP, together with meteorological parameters, we explored a method for evaluating the transport flux intensities at Yufa, as part of the “Campaign of Air Quality Research in Beijing and Surrounding Region 2006–2008” (CAREBeijing 2006–2008. The hourly mean ± SD (median concentration of SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, Ox, and CO was 15 ± 16 (9 ppb, 12 ± 25 (3 ppb, 24 ± 19 (20 ppb, 36 ± 39 (23 ppb, 28 ± 27 (21 ppb, 52 ± 24 (45 ppb, and 1.6 ± 1.4 (1.2 ppm during the observation period, respectively. The bivariate polar plots showed the dependence of pollutant concentrations on both wind speed and wind direction, and thus inferred their dominant transport directions. Surface flux intensity calculations further demonstrated the regional transport influence of Beijing and the NCP on Yufa. The net surface transport flux intensity (mean ± SD of SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, Ox, and CO was 6.2 ± 89.5, −4.3 ± 29.5, −0.6 ± 72.3, −4.9 ± 93.0, 14.7 ± 187.8, 14.8 ± 234.9, and 70 ± 2830 µg s−1 m−2 during the observation period, respectively. For SO2, CO, O3, and Ox the surface flux intensities from the NCP to Yufa surpassed those from Beijing to Yufa in all seasons except winter, with the strongest net fluxes largely

OPEC Middle East plans for rising world demand amid uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ismail, I.A.H.

1996-01-01

The Middle Eastern members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries must plan for huge increases in oil production capacity yet wonder whether markets for the new output will develop as expected. With worldwide oil consumption rising and non-OPEC output likely to reach its resource limits soon, OPEC member countries face major gains in demand for their crude oil. To meet the demand growth, those with untapped resources will have to invest heavily in production capacity. Most OPEC members with such resources are in the Middle East. But financing the capacity investments remains a challenge. Some OPEC members have opened up to foreign equity participation in production projects, and others may eventually do so as financial pressures grow. That means additions to the opportunities now available to international companies in the Middle East. Uncertainties, however, hamper planning and worry OPEC. Chief among them are taxation and environmental policies of consuming-nation governments. This paper reviews these concerns and provides data on production, pricing, capital investment histories and revenues

Application of Artificial Intelligence in Transportation Demand Management: Development and Implementation of E-sutra

OpenAIRE

Resdiansyah; Ircham; Sandjoko, Otto

2013-01-01

Allowing traffic to grow to a level at which there is extensive and regular congestion is economically inefficient. Although the construction of additional roads can alleviate some of the effects of congestion, the benefits may be counterbalanced unless the growth in traffic volumes can be restrained. Therefore, another alternative is by implementing Transportation Demand Management (TDM), which means people still travel but at the same time the private car USAge is reduced. This paper presen...

Report on energy supply and demand in Canada : 2002

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dion, M.; Lacroix, J.; Smalldridge, G.; Svab, J.; Cromey, N.

2003-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of energy use in Canada. The year 1990 was used as a starting point because that is the base year for energy inventories for the Kyoto Protocol. Data was derived from monthly and quarterly surveys. The report describes data quality and methodology as well as energy conversion factors. It includes individual tables on primary and secondary energy for: coal, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, primary electricity, steam, coke, secondary electricity, refined petroleum products, non-energy refined petroleum products, solid wood waste, and spent liquor. The most recent data on energy demand and supply indicates that Canadians consumed energy for transportation twice as fast as the nation's industries did in the past 12 years. From 1990 to 2002, energy consumption in the transportation sector increased 22.7 per cent while demand in the industrial sector rose by 11.7 per cent. Canada's energy consumption increased 17.6 per cent from 1990 to 2002. In 2002, the transportation and industrial sectors each accounted for 30 per cent of total energy consumption. Consumption of natural gas, refined petroleum and coal increased 18.1 per cent, with the greatest increased being in natural gas. In 2002, electricity produced by water, nuclear power, wind and tidal action accounted for 25 per cent of energy consumption. Secondary electricity generation from fossil fuels increased steadily. The general increase in domestic demand for energy in 2002 was due to an increase in energy consumption by the industrial sector and by growing residential sales. In 2002, the rate of increase in energy consumption in Alberta was higher than in any other province due to a booming economy and rising population. Ontario consumed the most energy in 2002, accounting for 34 per cent of the country's energy demand

Impact assessment of a maternal health project in a megacity, Nigeria: toward a future with more demand for maternal health services.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsuoka, Sadatoshi; Koga, Sumiko; Suzui, Emiko; Tsukada, Yoshiko; Ohashi, Kazutomo; Johnson, Taiwo

2017-10-01

To improve the quantity and quality of maternal health services in Lagos State, Nigeria having a maternal mortality ratio of 555 per 100 000 live births, a four-year project was implemented since February 2010. The major activity of the project was training for both the service supply and demand sides. This study aimed to examine the impact of the project on coverages and quality of the services in target areas, and guide statewide policies. The Cochran-Armitage test for trend was applied to understand trends in the service coverages during 2009-2013. The same test was performed to analyse trends in the proportions of perineal conditions (i.e. intact or tear) and to evaluate variations in midwives' snkill during 2011-2013. The paired t-test was used to analyse changes in midwives' knowledge. The project interventions contributed to a significant increase in the overall service coverages, including improvements in midwifery knowledge and possibly in their skills. However, the service coverage was still limited as of the termination of the project. To instal the interventions and maximise the effect of them state-wide, it is recommended to undertake five tasks: (i) establishment of public primary health centres offering 24-h maternal health services; (ii) redeployment and recruitment of public health personnel; (iii) expansion of midwifery trainings and continuous education by the local trainers; (iv) review of grass-roots level activities; and (v) scrutiny of barriers to maternal health services. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Natural gas supply, demand and price outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Natural gas consumption in the US grew 15.9 percent between 1986 and 1989. Its share of total primary energy use in the US grew from 22.5 percent to 23.8 percent. Despite unusually warm weather and an economic downturn, natural gas use in the first eight months of 1990 fell only modestly from its 1989 pace - while its market share of US total primary energy use has remained stable. The American Gas Association's Total Energy Resource Analysis energy modeling system (A.G.A.-TERA) projects continued growth in natural gas demand and supply. Natural gas is projected to gain a growing share of total US primary use. Natural gas prices are projected to be sufficient to encourage growth in well completions and reserve additions, yet competitive with electricity, fuel oil and other alternative forms of energy

Carbon dioxide and methane measurements from the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project - Part 1: calibration, urban enhancements, and uncertainty estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Verhulst, Kristal R.; Karion, Anna; Kim, Jooil; Salameh, Peter K.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Newman, Sally; Miller, John; Sloop, Christopher; Pongetti, Thomas; Rao, Preeti; Wong, Clare; Hopkins, Francesca M.; Yadav, Vineet; Weiss, Ray F.; Duren, Riley M.; Miller, Charles E.

2017-07-01

We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four extra-urban sites including two marine sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one continental site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one continental/mid-troposphere site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ˜ 1 ppm CO2 and ˜ 10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. Urban and suburban sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ˜ 20 ppm CO2 and ˜ 150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ˜ 15 ppm CO2 and ˜ 80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00-16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine

Tackling the mortality from long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution in megacities: Lessons from the Greater Cairo case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wheida, Ali; Nasser, Amira; El Nazer, Mostafa; Borbon, Agnes; Abo El Ata, Gehad A; Abdel Wahab, Magdy; Alfaro, Stephane C

2018-01-01

The poor outdoor air quality in megacities of the developing world and its impact on health is a matter of concern for both the local populations and the decision-makers. The objective of this work is to quantify the mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO 2 , and O 3 in Greater Cairo (Egypt). We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the three pollutants concentrations measured at 18 stations of the area. Then, we apply the method recommended by the WHO to estimate the excess mortality. In this assessment, three different shapes (log-linear, linear, and log-log) of the concentration-response functions (CRF) are used. With PM2.5 concentrations varying from 50 to more than 100µg/m 3 in the different sectors of the megacity, the spatial variability of this pollutant is found to be one important cause of uncertainty on the excess mortality associated with it. Also important is the choice of the CRF. With the average (75µg/m 3 ) PM2.5 concentration and the most favorable log-log shape of the CRF, 11% (CI, 9-14%) of the non-accidental mortality in the population older than 30 years can still be attributed to PM2.5, which corresponds to 12520 (CI, 10240-15930) yearly premature deaths. Should the Egyptian legal 70µg/m 3 PM10 limit (corresponding to approximately 37.5µg/m 3 for PM2.5) be met, this number would be reduced to 7970, meaning that 4550 premature deaths could be avoided each year. Except around some industrial or traffic hot spots, NO 2 concentration is found to be below the 40µg/m 3 air quality guideline of the WHO. However, the average concentration (34µg/m 3 ) of this gas exceeds the stricter 10µg/m 3 recommendation of the HRAPIE project and it is thus estimated that from 7850 to 10470 yearly deaths can be attributed to NO 2 . Finally, with the ozone concentration measured at one station only, it is found that, depending on the choice of the CRF, between 2.4% and 8.8% of the mortality due to respiratory diseases can be

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Hubert Y.; Haffty, Bruce G.; Falit, Benjamin P.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Wilson, Lynn D.; Hahn, Stephen M.; Smith, Benjamin D.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pan, Hubert Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School – University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey (United States); Falit, Benjamin P. [Radiation Oncology Associates, Lowell, Massachusetts (United States); Buchholz, Thomas A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Wilson, Lynn D. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Hahn, Stephen M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Smith, Benjamin D., E-mail: bsmith3@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

2016-11-01

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

2012-01-01

Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

The extent to which ATP demand controls the glycolytic flux depends strongly on the organism and conditions for growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Købmann, Brian Jensen; Westerhoff, H.V.; Snoep, J.L.

2002-01-01

Using molecular genetics we have introduced uncoupled ATPase activity in two different bacterial species, Escherichia coli and Lactococcus lactis, and determined the elasticities of the growth rate and glycolytic flux towards the intracellular [ATP]/[ADP] ratio. During balanced growth in batch...... cultures of E. coli the ATP demand was found to have almost full control on the glycolytic flux (FCC=0.96) and the flux could be stimulated by 70%. In contrast to this, in L. lactis the control by ATP demand on the glycolytic flux was close to zero. However, when we used non-growing cells of L. lactis...... (which have a low glycolytic flux) the ATP demand had a high flux control and the flux could be stimulated more than two fold. We suggest that the extent to which ATP demand controls the glycolytic flux depends on how much excess capacity of glycolysis is present in the cells....

Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeng, Bo; Li, Chuan

2016-01-01

Reasonably forecasting demands of natural gas in China is of significance as it could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and adjusting industrial structures. To this end, a self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model is proposed in this paper. Compared with conventional grey models which have the inherent drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability, the proposed new model can automatically optimize model parameters according to the real data characteristics of modeling sequence. In this study, the proposed new model, discrete grey model, even difference grey model and classical grey model were employed, respectively, to simulate China's natural gas demands during 2002–2010 and forecast demands during 2011–2014. The results show the new model has the best simulative and predictive precision. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's natural gas demand during 2015–2020. The forecast shows the demand will grow rapidly over the next six years. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance between the supplies and the demands for the natural gas in the future, Chinese government needs to take some measures, such as importing huge amounts of natural gas from abroad, increasing the domestic yield, using more alternative energy, and reducing the industrial reliance on natural gas. - Highlights: • A self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model (SIGM) is proposed in this paper. • The SIGM has the advantage of working with exponential functions and linear functions. • The SIGM solves the drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability of grey models. • The demand of natural gas in China is successfully forecasted using the SIGM model. • The study findings can help Chinese government reasonably formulate energy policies.

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-12-01

During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies

Electricity demand forecasting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanalingam, K.

1994-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

Growing ‘Smart’? Urbanization Processes in the Pune Urban Agglomeration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carsten Butsch

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Indian city of Pune witnessed rapid growth and deep transformation processes in the last three decades. This paper assesses past developments and recent structures and processes against the concept of urban sustainability. Following an overview of the historical development, the dimensions of sustainability are discussed separately, based on empirical findings. Urban growth puts enormous pressure on Pune’s land and water resources, changing the ecology of the area. The increasing water demand of Pune’s growing population competes with growing energy and water demands. An assessment of future climate change impacts indicates that the storage capacity of the reservoirs is more frequently not met during the rainy season. In addition, extreme dry years can aggravate the effects of land use change on water resources in the future. The city’s growth and especially the large in-migration has also changed Pune’s social fabric significantly. Wealth is distributed unevenly in the city and social disparities can be observed along two fault lines, namely along classes and caste groups. The population development and the increasing socioeconomic polarization are linked to the economic development of the city. Pune’s formal economy has a robust base. However, as in many cities of the Global South, the informal economy is the most relevant source of income for large parts of the population. Pune’s development is challenged by informality, poor infrastructure and inadequate planning and governance. Recently new approaches towards urban renewal and smart city development were launched. These new approaches aim at overcoming blockades in the traditional planning. A special challenge for urban planning is the transformation of urban fringe areas of the city, as this process is currently taking place in an unsustainable manner. The paper concludes that urban development has to become holistic, integrative and participative and should abandon the

Water quality and small-scale land use mapping in the South-Chinese megacity Guangzhou

Science.gov (United States)

Strohschoen, R.; Azzam, R.; Baier, K.

2011-12-01

Since China adopted its "open-door" policy in 1978/ 79, the Pearl River Delta became one of the most rapid and dynamic urbanizing areas in East Asia due to migration, industrialization and globalization processes. The study area Guangzhou grew from a small town to a megacity with some 15 million inhabitants within less than 30 years. The rapid population growth and the urban and industrial expansion led to a remarkably increasing demand for freshwater, a high water consume and a rising sewage production. While economy and house constructions developed very fast, the expansion of water infrastructures could not keep pace with the urban growth. The consequences arising out of these situations are a serious deterioration of the surface and groundwater resources but also a degradation of living conditions and a threat to human health, particularly of the urban poor. In contrast to other studies that often consider the surface water quality outside Guangzhou, our focus was put on the urban Pearl River and its tributaries as well as urban groundwater and tap water. The study was conducted to spatially investigate the present status of the water quality in view of the concurrent formal and informal anthropogenic influences. Additional land use mapping was undertaken to analyze the interrelations between different land use types and water quality and to determine local pollution hotspots which should be taken into particular consideration of future city planning. Supplementing interviews were hold to find out usage patterns of groundwater and strategies to cope with both insufficient tap water quality and water infrastructures. A total of 74 surface water samples and 16 groundwater samples of privately and publicly accessible wells were taken at the beginning of the rainy season in May 2010. Those samples were partly compared to measurements carried out from 2007-2009, where adequate. Further, 15 tap water samples were taken in 2007/ 08 to draw conclusions about possible

The Physical Density of the City—Deconstruction of the Delusive Density Measure with Evidence from Two European Megacities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannes Taubenböck

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Density is among the most important descriptive as well as normative measures in urban research. While its basic concept is generally understandable, approaches towards the density measure are manifold, diverse and of multidimensional complexity. This evolves from differing thematic, spatial and calculative specifications. Consequently, applied density measures are often used in a subjective, non-transparent, unspecific and thus non-comparable manner. In this paper, we aim at a systematic deconstruction of the measure density. Varying thematic, spatial and calculative dimensions show significant influence on the measure. With both quantitative and qualitative techniques of evaluation, we assess the particular influences on the measure density. To do so, we reduce our experiment setting to a mere physical perspective; that is, the quantitative measures building density, degree of soil sealing, floor space density and, more specifically, the density of generic structural classes such as open spaces and highest built-up density areas. Using up-to-date geodata derived from remote sensing and volunteered geographic information, we build upon high-quality spatial information products such as 3-D city models. Exemplified for the comparison of two European megacities, namely Paris and London, we reveal and systemize necessary variables to be clearly defined for meaningful conclusions using the density measure.

The effects of perceived quality on behavioral economic demand for marijuana: A web-based experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, Paula C; Collins, R Lorraine; Liu, Liu; Yu, Jihnhee; De Leo, Joseph A; Earleywine, Mitch

2017-01-01

Given the growing legalization of recreational marijuana use and related increase in its prevalence in the United States, it is important to understand marijuana's appeal. We used a behavioral economic (BE) approach to examine whether the reinforcing properties of marijuana, including "demand" for marijuana, varied as a function of its perceived quality. Using an innovative, Web-based marijuana purchase task (MPT), a sample of 683 young-adult recreational marijuana users made hypothetical purchases of marijuana across three qualities (low, mid and high grade) at nine escalating prices per joint, ranging from $0/free to $20. We used nonlinear mixed effects modeling to conduct demand curve analyses, which produced separate demand indices (e.g., P max , elasticity) for each grade of marijuana. Consistent with previous research, as the price of marijuana increased, marijuana users reduced their purchasing. Demand also was sensitive to quality, with users willing to pay more for higher quality/grade marijuana. In regression analyses, demand indices accounted for significant variance in typical marijuana use. This study illustrates the value of applying BE theory to young adult marijuana use. It extends past research by examining how perceived quality affects demand for marijuana and provides support for the validity of a Web-based MPT to examine the appeal of marijuana. Our results have implications for policies to regulate marijuana use, including taxation based on the quality of different marijuana products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal Variations in on-road CO2 Emissions in the Los Angeles Megacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Preeti Rao

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We quantify hourly on-road fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2 emissions at the road segment level for the Los Angeles (LA megacity based on observed traffic data, and characterize emission patterns across space and time. This on-road FFCO2 emissions dataset for LA (from Hestia version 1.0, based on actual traffic volume, provides emissions per vehicle kilometer travelled (VKT—an important metric for greenhouse gas (GHG reductions. We further identify emissions hotpots that can help state and local policy makers plan the most effective GHG reduction strategies. On-road vehicle traffic accounts for half of the FFCO2 emissions in LA, of which 41% is from arterials (intermediate road type. Arterials also have the largest C emissions intensity—FFCO2 per VKT—possibly from high traffic congestion and fleet composition. Non-interstate emissions hotspots (> 419 tC lane-km-1 are equally dominated by arterials and collectors (the lowest road type in terms of FFCO2 emissions though collectors have a higher VKT. These hotspots occur in densely populated areas and developed landuse classes, largely in LA (67% and Orange (18% counties, and provide specific targets for emissions reduction efforts. The estimated uncertainties for interstate, arterial and collector emissions per road length are ± 2.1, ± 0.5 and ± 18.0%, respectively. Our overall estimates compare reasonably well with other products, DARTE and FIVE but with substantial differences in spatial distribution. The method for developing this dataset is easily replicable in other urban landscapes, and represents a powerful tool for carbon cycle science and regional policy makers.

Use of Growing Cells of Pseudomonas aeruginosa for Synthesis of the Natural Vanillin via Conversion of Isoeugenol

OpenAIRE

Ashengroph, Morahem; Nahvi, Iraj; Zarkesh-Esfahani, Hamid; Momenbeik, Fariborz

2011-01-01

The great demand of people for consumption of natural additives resulted in producing natural vanillin. There are plant sources and chemical procedures for vanillin production but microbial bioconversions are being sought as a suitable alternative. In the present work, the ability to produce vanillin from isoeugenol was screened using growing cultures of various bacteria. Among the 56 strains of bacteria isolated from the soil environments of Iran, a Gram-negative rod designated as strain ISP...

Neoplasia no sítio da colostomia de paciente com megacólon chagásico: relato de caso Neoplasia at the site of the colostomy of patient with chagasic megacolon: case report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thiago Agostini Braga

2011-06-01

Full Text Available A neoplasia no sítio da colostomia associada ao megacólon chagásico é uma entidade rara. Os autores relatam caso de um paciente com lesão avançada, o qual foi submetido a tratamento cirúrgico e discutem aspectos relacionados a esta afecção.Neoplasia at the site of the colostomy associated with chagasic megacolon is a rare clinical event. Here, the authors report the case of a patient with advanced lesion, who had to undergo surgical treatment, and discuss aspects related to this disease.

Chemically-resolved aerosol volatility measurements from two megacity field studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Huffman

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The volatilities of different chemical species in ambient aerosols are important but remain poorly characterized. The coupling of a recently developed rapid temperature-stepping thermodenuder (TD, operated in the range 54–230°C with a High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS during field studies in two polluted megacities has enabled the first direct characterization of chemically-resolved urban particle volatility. Measurements in Riverside, CA and Mexico City are generally consistent and show ambient nitrate as having the highest volatility of any AMS standard aerosol species while sulfate showed the lowest volatility. Total organic aerosol (OA showed volatility intermediate between nitrate and sulfate, with an evaporation rate of 0.6%·K⁻¹ near ambient temperature, although OA dominates the residual species at the highest temperatures. Different types of OA were characterized with marker ions, diurnal cycles, and positive matrix factorization (PMF and show significant differences in volatility. Reduced hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA, a surrogate for primary OA, POA, oxygenated OA (OOA, a surrogate for secondary OA, SOA, and biomass-burning OA (BBOA separated with PMF were all determined to be semi-volatile. The most aged OOA-1 and its dominant ion, CO₂⁺, consistently exhibited the lowest volatility, with HOA, BBOA, and associated ions for each among the highest. The similar or higher volatility of HOA/POA compared to OOA/SOA contradicts the current representations of OA volatility in most atmospheric models and has important implications for aerosol growth and lifetime. A new technique using the AMS background signal was demonstrated to quantify the fraction of species up to four orders-of-magnitude less volatile than those detectable in the MS mode, which for OA represent ~5% of the non-refractory (NR OA signal. Our results strongly imply that all OA types should be considered

Renewable energy: GIS-based mapping and modelling of potentials and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Blaschke, Thomas; Biberacher, Markus; Schardinger, Ingrid.; Gadocha, Sabine; Zocher, Daniela

2010-05-01

Worldwide demand of energy is growing and will continue to do so for the next decades to come. IEA has estimated that global primary energy demand will increase by 40 - 50% from 2003 to 2030 (IEA, 2005) depending on the fact whether currently contemplated energy policies directed towards energy-saving and fuel-diversification will be effectuated. The demand for Renewable Energy (RE) is undenied but clear figures and spatially disaggregated potentials for the various energy carriers are very rare. Renewable Energies are expected to reduce pressures on the environment and CO2 production. In several studies in Germany (North-Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony) and Austria we studied the current and future pattern of energy production and consumption. In this paper we summarize and benchmark different RE carriers, namely wind, biomass (forest and non-forest, geothermal, solar and hydro power. We demonstrate that GIS-based scalable and flexible information delivery sheds new light on the prevailing metaphor of GIS as a processing engine serving needs of users more on demand rather than through ‘maps on stock'. We compare our finding with those of several energy related EU-FP7 projects in Europe where we have been involved - namely GEOBENE, REACCESS, ENERGEO - and demonstrate that more and more spatial data will become available together with tools that allow experts to do their own analyses and to communicate their results in ways which policy makers and the public can readily understand and use as a basis for their own actions. Geoportals in combination with standardised geoprocessing today supports the older vision of an automated presentation of data on maps, and - if user privileges are given - facilities to interactively manipulate these maps. We conclude that the most critical factor in modelling energy supply and demand remain the economic valuation of goods and services, especially the forecast of future end consumer energy costs.

Coupling Agent-Based and Groundwater Modeling to Explore Demand Management Strategies for Shared Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Amin, S.

2015-12-01

Municipal water demands in growing population centers in the arid southwest US are typically met through increased groundwater withdrawals. Hydro-climatic uncertainties attributed to climate change and land use conversions may also alter demands and impact the replenishment of groundwater supply. Groundwater aquifers are not necessarily confined within municipal and management boundaries, and multiple diverse agencies may manage a shared resource in a decentralized approach, based on individual concerns and resources. The interactions among water managers, consumers, and the environment influence the performance of local management strategies and regional groundwater resources. This research couples an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework and a groundwater model to analyze the effects of different management approaches on shared groundwater resources. The ABM captures the dynamic interactions between household-level consumers and policy makers to simulate water demands under climate change and population growth uncertainties. The groundwater model is used to analyze the relative effects of management approaches on reducing demands and replenishing groundwater resources. The framework is applied for municipalities located in the Verde River Basin, Arizona that withdraw groundwater from the Verde Formation-Basin Fill-Carbonate aquifer system. Insights gained through this simulation study can be used to guide groundwater policy-making under changing hydro-climatic scenarios for a long-term planning horizon.

An aging population and growing disease burden will require a large and specialized health care workforce by 2025.

Science.gov (United States)

Dall, Timothy M; Gallo, Paul D; Chakrabarti, Ritasree; West, Terry; Semilla, April P; Storm, Michael V

2013-11-01

As the US population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions will have profound implications for the future health care system. We projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services for each person in a representative sample of the current and projected future population. Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth (31 percent), followed by cardiology (20 percent) and neurological surgery, radiology, and general surgery (each 18 percent). Market indicators such as long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand. Failure to train sufficient numbers and the correct mix of specialists could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation's most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients' quality of life.

Analysis of the demand status and forecast of food cold chain in Beijing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongjie Lan

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Food cold chain is very important for ensuring food safety and decreasing the loss in the supply process. It is also benefit for the citizen, because cold chain could promise the food safety and the demand of the special cold food. Beijing, as the capital, the level of food chain is high, compared to other cities, and analysis of the demand status and forecast of food cold chain in Beijing is necessary, it could direct the scientific and health development of cold chain all over our country. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, in accordance with the investigation, we analysis the demand status of food cold chain from two aspects, then according to the status, we forecast the demand of refrigerated cars and warehouse for food cold chain in Beijing with the multivariate statistics. Findings: From the analysis of the paper, we can see that the need of cold chain logistics grows rapidly, but most consumers are lack of the awareness of the importance of the cold chain and many companies cannot bear the huge investment, it make the gap of the resources of cold chain logistics large and cannot meet the normal need of cold chain logistics in Beijing. Originality/value: The result of this paper could support the relative enterprise to run business in terms of the refrigerated car and warehouse. 

History of demand side management and classification of demand response control schemes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lampropoulos, I.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Berg, van den J.

2013-01-01

The scope of this paper is to provide a review on the topic of demand side management. A historical overview provides a critical insight to applied cases, while the discovery of new evidence calls for reconsideration of the design of demand response control schemes. The developments at the demand

Quantitative work demands, emotional demands, and cognitive stress symptoms in surgery nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone; Leitner, Monika; Hirschmüller, Anja; Kubosch, Eva Johanna; Baur, Heiner

2017-06-01

In surgery, cognitive stress symptoms, including problems in concentrating, deciding, memorising, and reflecting are risks to patient safety. Recent evidence points to social stressors as antecedents of cognitive stress symptoms in surgery personnel. The current study tests whether cognitive stress symptoms are positively associated with emotional abuse, emotional- and task-related demands and resources in surgery work. Forty-eight surgery nurses from two hospitals filled out the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire in its German version. Task-related and emotional demands were positively related to cognitive stress symptoms. In a stepwise, multiple, linear regression of cognitive stress symptoms on task-related and emotional demands, emotional abuse and emotional demands were unique predictors (p emotional abuse, emotional demands, and, therefore, communication and cooperation team climate in surgery personnel.

The construction of a decision tool to analyse local demand and local supply for GP care using a synthetic estimation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Graaf-Ruizendaal, Willemijn A.; de Bakker, Dinny H.

2013-01-01

Background This study addresses the growing academic and policy interest in the appropriate provision of local healthcare services to the healthcare needs of local populations to increase health status and decrease healthcare costs. However, for most local areas information on the demand for primary

Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sartori, Igor

2008-07-15

Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

A University-Industry Collaborative Response to the Growing Global Demand for Student Talent: Using Interpretive Phenomenology to Discover Life-World Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Vauterin, Johanna Julia; Linnanen, Lassi; Michelsen, Karl-Erik

2013-01-01

The supply of student talent is now taking on an increasingly global dimension and this has extended the breadth of university-industry interaction. Set in the context of a rapidly growing international student market, knowledge transfer between academia and business through global student talent supply is an emerging practice. This paper…

[Economic determinants of the demand for importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products].

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Anderson Moreira Aristides Dos; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade

2017-09-28

: This article analyzes the relationship between the demand for importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products and economic variables (exchange rate, import prices, and aggregate income) in Brazil, using monthly data from 1997-2014. The main results showed that increases in aggregate income and price reductions in imports have a positive and significant impact (elastic and inelastic, respectively) on imports. Exchange rate was only significant in the more aggregate model. Thus, aggregate income was a robust variable with strong impact on the importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products. The arguments in the literature that this industry's international trade deficit is related to a deficit in knowledge and technology and the current study's results provide evidence that as economic activity grows, there is a greater demand for this type of product. Additionally, if domestic production is insufficient, there is a need for imports, which can generate pressure on the trade deficit in the industry and contribute to Brazil's dependence on other countries.

Proceedings of the CEATI demand side management workshop on understanding customer response. CD-ROM ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Demand for electricity continues to increase in the midst of environmental concerns, deregulation and the rapid evolution of technology. In order to succeed in a changing environment, utilities must be both adaptive and innovative. Growing concerns over supply and the environmental effects of rising consumption rates have led many utilities to establish demand side management (DSM) programs. However, some utilities have failed to consider the importance of customer behaviour in the success of DSM programs. This conference examined various successful initiatives to encourage customers to reduce their individual or corporate demands for energy. The influence of branding, technology, information prices signals and various other strategies were explored. Issues concerning energy efficiency and customer feedback were discussed. The effect of alternative pricing regimes on DSM programs was investigated. Various information system tools were also examined, and the value of real time electricity monitoring was evaluated. Various DSM initiatives in North America were used to establish benchmarks for the successful implementation of DSM strategies. The conference was divided into 3 sessions: (1) involving the customer in reducing demand; (2) the success of energy efficiency and demand response programs : the impact of branding and the impact of price signals; and (3) the technologies and innovations needed to make it work. The conference featured 13 presentations, of which 8 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

Proceedings of the CEATI demand side management workshop on understanding customer response. CD-ROM ed.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

Demand for electricity continues to increase in the midst of environmental concerns, deregulation and the rapid evolution of technology. In order to succeed in a changing environment, utilities must be both adaptive and innovative. Growing concerns over supply and the environmental effects of rising consumption rates have led many utilities to establish demand side management (DSM) programs. However, some utilities have failed to consider the importance of customer behaviour in the success of DSM programs. This conference examined various successful initiatives to encourage customers to reduce their individual or corporate demands for energy. The influence of branding, technology, information prices signals and various other strategies were explored. Issues concerning energy efficiency and customer feedback were discussed. The effect of alternative pricing regimes on DSM programs was investigated. Various information system tools were also examined, and the value of real time electricity monitoring was evaluated. Various DSM initiatives in North America were used to establish benchmarks for the successful implementation of DSM strategies. The conference was divided into 3 sessions: (1) involving the customer in reducing demand; (2) the success of energy efficiency and demand response programs : the impact of branding and the impact of price signals; and (3) the technologies and innovations needed to make it work. The conference featured 13 presentations, of which 8 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs.

2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

Managing energy demand through transport policy: What can South Africa learn from Europe?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanderschuren, Marianne; Lane, T.E.; Korver, W.

2010-01-01

For years, the world has enjoyed the luxury of inexpensive transport fuels, resulting in the continuous expansion of transport demand and vast improvements in mobility levels. The threat of peak oil and other environmental concerns, however, are forcing a paradigm shift in terms of transport planning. In recent times, many developed nations have been investigating alternative ways and means of weaning themselves off oil as the main transport energy source and managing transport energy demand. South Africa is a developing nation that, in terms of transportation technology and policy, lags behind developed countries. This presents South Africa with the opportunity to learn from other countries' triumphs and mistakes and to skip over obsolete investment patterns and ineffective policy. It needs to be determined what South Africa can do to bend the stream of continuously growing transport (energy) demand, without hampering growth in mobility. Solutions can potentially be found by looking at the European Union's past and present situation and responses. This paper summarises various European energy management transport policies. These policies are translated into a South African context-pros, cons and implementation viability are identified.

Managing energy demand through transport policy. What can South Africa learn from Europe?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanderschuren, Marianne [Centre for Transport Studies, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, 7701 Rondebosch (South Africa); Lane, T.E. [Centre for Transport Studies, University of Cape Town (South Africa); Korver, W. [Goudappel Coffeng BV (Netherlands)

2010-02-15

For years, the world has enjoyed the luxury of inexpensive transport fuels, resulting in the continuous expansion of transport demand and vast improvements in mobility levels. The threat of peak oil and other environmental concerns, however, are forcing a paradigm shift in terms of transport planning. In recent times, many developed nations have been investigating alternative ways and means of weaning themselves off oil as the main transport energy source and managing transport energy demand. South Africa is a developing nation that, in terms of transportation technology and policy, lags behind developed countries. This presents South Africa with the opportunity to learn from other countries' triumphs and mistakes and to skip over obsolete investment patterns and in effective policy. It needs to be determined what South Africa can do to bend the stream of continuously growing transport (energy) demand, without hampering growth in mobility. Solutions can potentially be found by looking at the European Union's past and present situation and responses. This paper summarises various European energy management transport policies. These policies are translated into a South African context - pros, cons and implementation viability are identified. (author)

Managing energy demand through transport policy: What can South Africa learn from Europe?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanderschuren, Marianne, E-mail: marianne.vanderschuren@uct.ac.z [Centre for Transport Studies, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, 7701 Rondebosch (South Africa); Lane, T.E., E-mail: lane.tanya@gmail.co [Centre for Transport Studies, University of Cape Town (South Africa); Korver, W., E-mail: WKorver@goudappel.n [Goudappel Coffeng BV (Netherlands)

2010-02-15

For years, the world has enjoyed the luxury of inexpensive transport fuels, resulting in the continuous expansion of transport demand and vast improvements in mobility levels. The threat of peak oil and other environmental concerns, however, are forcing a paradigm shift in terms of transport planning. In recent times, many developed nations have been investigating alternative ways and means of weaning themselves off oil as the main transport energy source and managing transport energy demand. South Africa is a developing nation that, in terms of transportation technology and policy, lags behind developed countries. This presents South Africa with the opportunity to learn from other countries' triumphs and mistakes and to skip over obsolete investment patterns and ineffective policy. It needs to be determined what South Africa can do to bend the stream of continuously growing transport (energy) demand, without hampering growth in mobility. Solutions can potentially be found by looking at the European Union's past and present situation and responses. This paper summarises various European energy management transport policies. These policies are translated into a South African context-pros, cons and implementation viability are identified.

Road infrastructure and demand induction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder; Lahrmann, Harry

2006-01-01

a long screenline is used to measure the development in aggregate demand in selected corridors. The paper analyses demand induction by establishing time series of aggregate demand that is compared with the national traffic index. Significant trend breaks in the association between aggregate demand...... in the corridors and the national index, following the opening of motorways or bridges, indicates demand induction by infrastructure expansion in a number of instances. Lack of significant trend breaks following opening year is found in peripheral areas where major population centres are missing. This indicates...... the necessity of some latent demand within suitable travel range for new infrastructure elements to produce significant amounts of induced demand. Estimates of demand induction as a percentage of the realised demand five years after opening are between 10% and 67% for new motorway sections depending...

Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmit, T M; Kaiser, H M

2006-12-01

Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are

The development of demand elasticity model for demand response in the retail market environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Kamphuis, I.G.

2015-01-01

In the context of liberalized energy market, increase in distributed generation, storage and demand response has expanded the price elasticity of demand, thus causing the addition of uncertainty to the supply-demand chain of power system. In order to cope with the challenges of demand uncertainty

Enron sees major increases in U.S. gas supply, demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.M.; Stram, B.

1991-01-01

Enron Corp., Houston, in an extensive study of U.S. natural-gas supply and demand through the year 2000, has found that the U.S. gas-resource base is 1,200 tcf. Despite current weaknesses in natural-gas prices, demand growth will be strong although affected by oil-price assumptions. This paper reports on highlights in the areas of reserves and production which include gains in both categories in the Rockies/Wyoming, San Juan basin, and Norphlet trends (offshore Alabama). The Midcontinent/Hugoton area exhibits reserve declines in a period of flat production. In the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) offshore, both production and reserves decline over the forecast period. These projections are derived from a base-case price of $4.07/MMBTU by 2000. U.S. gas production exhibits a production decline in a low oil-price case from 19 to 16.4 tcf by 2000, if prices are 30% below the base case, that is, $2.93/MMBTU. Gains in commercial gas use are strong under either scenario of a base oil price of $29.80 in 1990 dollars in the year 2000 or a low oil price of $20.50 in 1990 dollars in 2000. Demand for natural gas for power generation grows as much as 1.5 tcf by 2000 in the Enron base case and by 300 bcf by 2000 in the low crude-oil price case

Function and Content of Maternal Demands: Developmental Significance of Early Demands for Competent Action.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuczynski, Leon; Kochanska, Grazyna

1995-01-01

Examined mothers' demands during mothers' interactions with their 1.5- to 3.5-year olds. Mothers with authoritative child-rearing attitudes emphasized proactive, competence-oriented demands and avoided regulatory control. Maternal demands for competent action predicted fewer behavior problems in their children at age five; maternal demands focused…

On-Demand Telemetry

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — AFRC has previously investigated the use of Network Based Telemetry. We will be building on that research to enable On-Demand Telemetry. On-Demand Telemetry is a way...

Money Demand in Latvia

OpenAIRE

Ivars Tillers

2004-01-01

The econometric analysis of the demand for broad money in Latvia suggests a stable relationship of money demand. The analysis of parameter exogeneity indicates that the equilibrium adjustment is driven solely by the changes in the amount of money. The demand for money in Latvia is characterised by relatively high income elasticity typical for the economy in a monetary expansion phase. Due to stability, close fit of the money demand function and rapid equilibrium adjustment, broad money aggreg...

The future demand for and structural problems of Japanese Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imai, Atsushi; Inoue, Toshihiko; Teshima, Teruki; Ohno, Yuko; Yamashita, Takashi; Mitsuhashi, Norio; Hiraoka, Masahiro; Sumi, Minako

2001-01-01

Recently, as the number of elderly people in Japan is growing, so is the number of new cancer cases. The number of patients treated with radiotherapy is therefore also on the increase, so that it is important to estimate the future demand for radiotherapy and to make preparations for it. All the surveys were conducted for 106 facilities selected randomly out of 556 radiotherapy facilities in Japan. To obtain trends in the number of new cancer patients treated with radiotherapy in Japan, we conducted a survey with a self-administered mail questionnaire designed to obtain the number of new patients treated with radiotherapy for each year of the past decade (1990-99). The future number of new patients treated with radiotherapy was estimated from the data thus obtained. To investigate structural problems of Japanese radiotherapy, surveys about the number of treatment machines and full-time equivalent (FTE) radiation oncologists were conducted according to data from the Japanese Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (JASTRO) structure survey and the Patterns of Care Study (PCS). We also compared the structure of Japanese radiotherapy with that in the USA. The number of patients treated with radiotherapy has increased for every institutional stratum, with an overall increase of 1.4-fold over the past 10 years in Japan. It is estimated that the number of cancer patients treated with radiotherapy will reach 190000 in 2015. In Japanese non-academic institutions, less than one FTE radiation oncologist has been managing many of these patients. In both equipment and manpower, academic institutions exceed non-academic institutions. The future demand for Japanese radiotherapy will grow substantially, so that it is of vital importance to prepare for it. Specifically, the number of FTE radiation oncologists must be increased. (author)

Optometry services in Ontario: supply - and demand-side factors from 2011 to 2036.

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, Philip Sj; Sweetman, Arthur; Zhang, Xue Helen

2014-01-01

Optometric labour market projections are provided. First, population growth and ageing-based estimates of the rate of increase of eye-care services in Ontario from 2011 to 2$ are presented, holding the age-sex structure of utilization constant. Then, using data on the 2011 supply and working hours of Ontario's optometrists, the number of optometrists needed to keep the level of optometric services per age-sex-adjusted person comparable over time is estimated. The projections suggest that the number of Ontario optometrists should grow by approximately 30-40 full-time equivalents per year; to offset retirements and account for decreasing work hours, this suggests 77-90 new practitioners are required each year. However, in recent years, the number of Ontario optometrists has been growing faster than this, suggesting either that demand has exceeded supply and/or surpluses will accumulate if this trend continues. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy Eltony, M.

1996-01-01

The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

Deriving local demand for stumpage from estimates of regional supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent P. Connaughton; Gerard A. Majerus; David H. Jackson

1989-01-01

The local (Forest-level or local-area) demand for stumpage can be derived from estimates of regional supply and demand. The derivation of local demand is justified when the local timber economy is similar to the regional timber economy; a simple regression of local on nonlocal prices can be used as an empirical test of similarity between local and regional economies....

Cognitive task demands, self-control demands and the mental well-being of office workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Bridger, Robert S; Brasher, Kate

2011-09-01

The cognitive task demands of office workers and the self-control demands of their work roles were measured in a sample of 196 employees in two different office layouts using a self-report questionnaire, which was circulated electronically. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that both factors were associated with mental well-being, but not with physical well-being, while controlling for exposure to psychosocial stressors. The interaction between cognitive task demands and self-control demands had the strongest association with mental well-being, suggesting that the deleterious effect of one was greater when the other was present. An exploratory analysis revealed that the association was stronger for employees working in a large open-plan office than for those working in smaller offices with more privacy. Frustration of work goals was the cognitive task demand having the strongest negative impact on mental well-being. Methodological limitations and scale psychometrics (particularly the use of the NASA Task Load Index) are discussed. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Modern office work has high mental demands and low physical demands and there is a need to design offices to prevent adverse psychological reactions. It is shown that cognitive task demands interact with self-control demands to degrade mental well-being. The association was stronger in an open-plan office.

Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries.

Science.gov (United States)

Fryxell, John M; Hilborn, Ray; Bieg, Carling; Turgeon, Katrine; Caskenette, Amanda; McCann, Kevin S

2017-11-14

There is growing awareness of the need for fishery management policies that are robust to changing environmental, social, and economic pressures. Here we use conventional bioeconomic theory to demonstrate that inherent biological constraints combined with nonlinear supply-demand relationships can generate threshold effects due to harvesting. As a result, increases in overall demand due to human population growth or improvement in real income would be expected to induce critical transitions from high-yield/low-price fisheries to low-yield/high-price fisheries, generating severe strains on social and economic systems as well as compromising resource conservation goals. As a proof of concept, we show that key predictions of the critical transition hypothesis are borne out in oceanic fisheries (cod and pollock) that have experienced substantial increase in fishing pressure over the past 60 y. A hump-shaped relationship between price and historical harvest returns, well demonstrated in these empirical examples, is particularly diagnostic of fishery degradation. Fortunately, the same heuristic can also be used to identify reliable targets for fishery restoration yielding optimal bioeconomic returns while safely conserving resource abundance. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Respiration to Nitrogen Fertilization: Varying Effects between Growing and Non-Growing Seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qingfang; Wang, Rui; Li, Rujian; Hu, Yaxian; Guo, Shengli

2016-01-01

Nitrogen (N) fertilization has a considerable effect on food production and carbon cycling in agro-ecosystems. However, the impacts of N fertilization rates on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q10) were controversial. Five N rates (N0, N45, N90, N135, and N180) were applied to a continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop on the semi-arid Loess Plateau, and the in situ soil respiration was monitored during five consecutive years from 2008 to 2013. During the growing season, the mean soil respiration rates increased with increasing N fertilization rates, peaking at 1.53 μmol m−2s−1 in the N135 treatment. A similar dynamic pattern was observed during the non-growing season, yet on average with 7.3% greater soil respiration rates than the growing season. In general for all the N fertilization treatments, the mean Q10 value during the non-growing season was significantly greater than that during the growing season. As N fertilization rates increased, the Q10 values did not change significantly in the growing season but significantly decreased in the non-growing season. Overall, N fertilization markedly influenced soil respirations and Q10 values, in particular posing distinct effects on the Q10 values between the growing and non-growing seasons. PMID:27992576

Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-08-01

During the past decades, human water use more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water scarcity considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which is subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e., moderate to high water stress) due to the growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27 % of the global population were under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number increased to 2.6 billion or 43 % for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is the decisive factor for the heightened water stress, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200 %, while climate variability is often the main determinant of onsets for extreme events, i.e. major droughts. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g., India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of the past observed droughts were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced. In those countries, it can be seen

Global Supply and Demand of Opioids for Pain Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunnumpurath, Sreekumar; Julien, Natasha; Kodumudi, Gopal; Kunnumpurath, Anamika; Kodumudi, Vijay; Vadivelu, Nalini

2018-04-04

The goal of this review is to evaluate the global supply and demand of opioids used for pain management and discuss how it relates to the utilization of opioids around the world. The purpose of the review is also to determine the factors that contribute to inappropriate pain management. The total global production of opium for opioid manufacturing is enough to supply the growing global demands. However, licit opioids are only consumed by 20% of the world population. Most people throughout the world had no access to opioid analgesics for pain relief in case of need. Opioid misuse and abuse is not only a phenomena plague by the USA but globally across many countries. Many countries have a lack of availability of opioids, contributing factors being strict government regulations limiting access, lack of knowledge of the efficacy of opioid analgesics in treating acute and chronic pain and palliative care, and the stigma that opioids are highly addictive. For the countries in which opioids are readily available and prescribed heavily, diversion, misuse, abuse, and the resurgence of heroin have become problems leading to morbidity and mortality. It is pertinent to find a balance between having opioids accessible to patients in need, with ensuring that opioids are regulated along with other illicit drugs to decrease abuse potential.

In situ formation and spatial variability of particle number concentration in a European megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Pikridas, M.; Sciare, J.; Freutel, F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; von der Weiden-Reinmüller, S.-L.; Borbon, A.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Merkel, M.; Crippa, M.; Kostenidou, E.; Psichoudaki, M.; Hildebrandt, L.; Engelhart, G. J.; Petäjä, T.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Drewnick, F.; Baltensperger, U.; Wiedensohler, A.; Kulmala, M.; Beekmann, M.; Pandis, S. N.

2015-09-01

Ambient particle number size distributions were measured in Paris, France, during summer (1-31 July 2009) and winter (15 January to 15 February 2010) at three fixed ground sites and using two mobile laboratories and one airplane. The campaigns were part of the Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation (MEGAPOLI) project. New particle formation (NPF) was observed only during summer on approximately 50 % of the campaign days, assisted by the low condensation sink (about 10.7 ± 5.9 × 10-3 s-1). NPF events inside the Paris plume were also observed at 600 m altitude onboard an aircraft simultaneously with regional events identified on the ground. Increased particle number concentrations were measured aloft also outside of the Paris plume at the same altitude, and were attributed to NPF. The Paris plume was identified, based on increased particle number and black carbon concentration, up to 200 km away from the Paris center during summer. The number concentration of particles with diameters exceeding 2.5 nm measured on the surface at the Paris center was on average 6.9 ± 8.7 × 104 and 12.1 ± 8.6 × 104 cm-3 during summer and winter, respectively, and was found to decrease exponentially with distance from Paris. However, further than 30 km from the city center, the particle number concentration at the surface was similar during both campaigns. During summer, one suburban site in the NE was not significantly affected by Paris emissions due to higher background number concentrations, while the particle number concentration at the second suburban site in the SW increased by a factor of 3 when it was downwind of Paris.

Power Scheduling Method for Demand Response based on Home Energy Management System using Stochastic Process

OpenAIRE

Moreno, Pablo; García, Marcelo

2016-01-01

The increase in energy consumption, especially in residential consumers, means that the electrical system should grow at pair, in infrastructure and installed capacity, the energy prices vary to meet these needs, so this paper uses the methodology of demand response using stochastic methods such as Markov, to optimize energy consumption of residential users. It is necessary to involve customers in the electrical system because in this way it can be verified the actual amount of electric charg...

Demand for private tuition classes under the free education policy. Evidence based on Sri Lanka

OpenAIRE

Pallegedara, Asankha

2011-01-01

Private tuition classes are growing phenomenon in Sri Lanka especially among students who prepare for competitive national school qualifying examinations. It is one of major education issues under the free education policy in Sri Lanka. It can tarnish the real purpose of free education policy. In this paper, we examine the demand for private tuition classes in Sri Lanka by using two waves of Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES) conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics (...

Present practice and future prospect of rooftop farming in Dhaka city: A step towards urban sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mastura Safayet

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is one of the most populated megacity in the world and the population growth in this city is extremely high. To support growing food demand of increasing population, food supply should be secure and sustainable. On the other hand, with the pace of urbanization built-up areas are increasing; hence supply of roof space is also increasing. Rooftop farming can provide solution to increased food demand and also can promote a sustainable and livable city. Local fresh and safe food can be ensured through roof gardens in Dhaka city. The aim of the study is to explore the present practice and challenges of rooftop farming that was encountered by practitioners. Mirpur and Mohammadpur areas have been selected as study areas. Two practitioners are interviewed and 60 non-practitioners are surveyed. Results show that rooftop farming can support environment by improving air quality, reducing carbon in the atmosphere and can benefit society by reducing storm water management cost. One of the significant findings from the non-practitioner survey is that maximum people are willing to practice rooftop farming and want to provide at least 50% of roof space for rooftop farming. Finally some recommendations have been suggested to improve rooftop farming practice and encourage more people to practice rooftop farming in future.

Chinese energy demand falls back

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smil, V.

1977-10-01

China's growth in energy demand and production declined in 1976, partly because of difficulty of sustaining a rapid 5.4 percent growth and partly because of the disruptions caused by a major earthquake and the deaths of Mao Tse-Tung and Chou En-Lai. The earthquake, which damaged all mines, the power station, refineries, and transportation lines in the Tangshan area, has had serious economic consequences. The failure to back up a growing coal industry with adequate investments and mechanization was recognized in 1975 and prompted a 10-year modernization program. Progress has been made with new mine shafts, pulverizing equipment, and the use of small mines for local industries. Oil and gas production increased after the discovery of new fields and the use of new technology in the hydrocarbon industries. Ports and terminal facilities to handle large tankers will increase China's oil export traffic. Electricity generation increased with new power facilities, although China's dependence on human and animal power is still a major factor. Changes in energy consumption patterns are developing, but industry still represents 50 percent and transportation less than 10 percent. (DCK)

Spatial–Temporal Analysis of the Heat and Electricity Demand of the Swiss Building Stock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Schneider

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In 2015, space heating and domestic hot water production accounted for around 40% of the Swiss final energy consumption. Reaching the goals of the 2050 energy strategy will require significantly reducing this share despite the growing building stock. Renewables are numerous but subject to spatial–temporal constraints. Territorial planning of energy distribution systems enabling the integration of renewables requires having a spatial–temporal characterization of the energy demand. This paper presents two bottom-up statistical extrapolation models for the estimation of the geo-dependent heat and electricity demand of the Swiss building stock. The heat demand is estimated by means of a statistical bottom-up model applied at the building level. At the municipality level, the electricity load curve is estimated by combining socio-economic indicators with average consumption per activity and/or electric device. This approach also allows to break down the estimated electricity demand according to activity type (e.g., households, various industry, and service activities and appliance type (e.g., lighting, motor force, fridges. The total estimated aggregated demand is 94 TWh for heat and 58 TWh for electricity, which represent a deviation of 2.9 and 0.5%, respectively compared to the national energy consumption statistics. In addition, comparisons between estimated and measured electric load curves are done to validate the proposed approach. Finally, these models are used to build a geo-referred database of heat and electricity demand for the entire Swiss territory. As an application of the heat demand model, a realistic saving potential is estimated for the existing building stock; this potential could be achieved through by a deep retrofit program. One advantage of the statistical bottom-up model approach is that it allows to simulate a building stock that replicates the diversity of building demand. This point is important in order to

A speculation on the debate about the future electricity demand in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Chae Young; Moon, Kee Hwan

2005-01-01

Since 1991, Korean government established the Long term Power Development Plan(LPDP) to secure a stable electricity supply. With the introduction of market mechanism into electricity supply sector, that plan has been changed into the Basic Plan of the Electricity supply and demand(BPE), which plays a role as a nonbinding guideline or a reference rather than the implementation plan. The BPE still has its importance as a tool providing market participants with appropriate information of future electricity market. According to the second BPE, released at the end of 2004, electricity demand is projected to grow at 2.5% per annum and reach 416.5TWh in 2017 from 293.6TWh in 2003. Based on the projected demand, power expansion plan provided by utilities has established. In the process of formulating the BPE, there were hot debates on the excess capacity margins for certain period of planning time. Some people, especially from environmental groups maintained that many Koreans were wasteful with electricity so that stronger policy for curbing the electricity consumption should be introduced rather than commissioning of additional power plants. They referred to relatively high number of the electricity intensity of Korea as the grounds of their argument. However, electricity intensity in a region or a country is influenced by various factors and higher intensity does not necessarily mean more wasteful consumption of electricity. We have compared various aspects of electricity demand in Korea with other countries to speculate the argument that electricity consumption in Korea is too high. We have also discussed electricity projection in the BPE

An analytical approach to activating demand elasticity with a demand response mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clastres, Cedric; Khalfallah, Haikel

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to demonstrate analytically the conditions under which activating the elasticity of consumer demand could benefit social welfare. We have developed an analytical equilibrium model to quantify the effect of deploying demand response on social welfare and energy trade. The novelty of this research is that it demonstrates the existence of an optimal area for the price signal in which demand response enhances social welfare. This optimal area is negatively correlated to the degree of competitiveness of generation technologies and the market size of the system. In particular, it should be noted that the value of un-served energy or energy reduction which the producers could lose from such a demand response scheme would limit its effectiveness. This constraint is even greater if energy trade between countries is limited. Finally, we have demonstrated scope for more aggressive demand response, when only considering the impact in terms of consumer surplus. (authors)

Demanding Dynamics - Demand articulation of intermediary organisations in emerging pharmaceutical innovations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boon, W.P.C.

2008-01-01

User involvement in emerging technological fields is carried by so-called demand articulation processes. These demand articulation processes are interactive learning processes in which stakeholders try to address what they perceive as important characteristics of, and to unravel preferences for an

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0

Ad libitum or demand/semi-demand feeding versus scheduled interval feeding for preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Felicia M; Tosh, Karen; McGuire, William

2010-02-17

Scheduled interval feeding of prescribed enteral volumes is current standard practice for preterm infants. However, feeding preterm infants in response to their hunger and satiation cues (ad libitum or demand/semi demand) rather than at scheduled intervals might help in the establishment of independent oral feeding, increase nutrient intake and growth rates, and allow earlier hospital discharge. To assess the effect of a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding prescribed volumes at scheduled intervals on growth rates and the time to hospital discharge. We used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group. This included searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 4, 2009), MEDLINE (1966 to Oct 2009), EMBASE (1980 to Oct 2009), CINAHL (1982 to Oct 2009), conference proceedings, and previous reviews. Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials (including cluster randomised trials) that compared a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding at scheduled intervals. We used the standard methods of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group with separate evaluation of trial quality and data extraction by two review authors. We found eight randomised controlled trials that compared ad libitum or demand/semi-demand regimens with scheduled interval regimes in preterm infants in the transition phase from intragastric tube to oral feeding. The trials were generally small and of variable methodological quality. The duration of the intervention and the duration of data collection and follow-up in most of the trials was not likely to have allowed detection of measurable effects on growth. Three trials reported that feeding preterm infants using an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand feeding regimen allowed earlier discharge from hospital (by about two to four days) but other trials did not confirm this

Understanding the design of energy interventions to reduce end-user demand in organisational and domestic environments

OpenAIRE

Foster, Derek

2017-01-01

Energy demand is on the rise globally due to unchecked factors such as population growth, lifestyle choices, and the industrialization of developing countries. Governments are investing in technologies for efficient and renewable energy in an attempt to secure energy for the future over current dependencies on fossil fuels, but the development costs are high, and the rate of developed technologies is projected to fall far short of meeting global requirements. Overshadowing this growing app...

Coal demand and trade - growth and structural change in a competitive world market; Popyt i handel weglem - wzrost i zmiany strukturalne na konkurencyjnym rynku swiatowym

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Copley, C. [World Coal Institute, London (United Kingdom)

2004-07-01

The article presents an overview of global demand and trade in hard coal (steam and coking). Coal demand has grown steadily over the past thirty years but coal trade has and will continue to grow at a faster rate. Transport contributes a relatively high proportion to the final price. Demand growth is strongest in countries with limited resources while production is declining in some countries with mature mining industries. There is a shift to demand in Asian markets. Spot contracts and tender transactions are replacing long-term contracts and e-commerce is developing. Prices are expected to remain stable, relative to those of oil and gas. China is expected to remain the world's second longest supplier of coal. 9 refs., 13 figs.

Ozone production in summer in the megacities of Tianjin and Shanghai, China: a comparative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Ran

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Rapid economic growth has given rise to a significant increase in ozone precursor emissions in many regions of China, especially in the densely populated North China Plain (NCP and Yangtze River Delta (YRD. Improved understanding of ozone formation in response to different precursor emissions is imperative to address the highly nonlinear ozone problem and to provide a solid scientific basis for efficient ozone abatement in these regions. A comparative study on ozone photochemical production in summer has thus been carried out in the megacities of Tianjin (NCP and Shanghai (YRD. Two intensive field campaigns were carried out respectively at an urban and a suburban site of Tianjin, in addition to routine monitoring of trace gases in Shanghai, providing data sets of surface ozone and its precursors including nitrogen oxides (NO_x and various non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs. Ozone pollution in summer was found to be more severe in the Tianjin region than in the Shanghai region, based on either the frequency or the duration of high ozone events. Such differences might be attributed to the large amount of highly reactive NMHCs in Tianjin. Industry related species like light alkenes were of particular importance in both urban and suburban Tianjin, while in Shanghai aromatics dominated. In general, the ozone problem in Shanghai is on an urban scale. Stringent control policies on local emissions would help reduce the occurrence of high ozone concentrations. By contrast, ozone pollution in Tianjin is probably a regional problem. Combined efforts to reduce ozone precursor emissions on a regional scale must be undertaken to bring the ozone problem under control.

Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

Growing media constituents determine the microbial nitrogen conversions in organic growing media for horticulture.

Science.gov (United States)

Grunert, Oliver; Reheul, Dirk; Van Labeke, Marie-Christine; Perneel, Maaike; Hernandez-Sanabria, Emma; Vlaeminck, Siegfried E; Boon, Nico

2016-05-01

Vegetables and fruits are an important part of a healthy food diet, however, the eco-sustainability of the production of these can still be significantly improved. European farmers and consumers spend an estimated €15.5 billion per year on inorganic fertilizers and the production of N-fertilizers results in a high carbon footprint. We investigated if fertilizer type and medium constituents determine microbial nitrogen conversions in organic growing media and can be used as a next step towards a more sustainable horticulture. We demonstrated that growing media constituents showed differences in urea hydrolysis, ammonia and nitrite oxidation and in carbon dioxide respiration rate. Interestingly, mixing of the growing media constituents resulted in a stimulation of the function of the microorganisms. The use of organic fertilizer resulted in an increase in amoA gene copy number by factor 100 compared to inorganic fertilizers. Our results support our hypothesis that the activity of the functional microbial community with respect to nitrogen turnover in an organic growing medium can be improved by selecting and mixing the appropriate growing media components with each other. These findings contribute to the understanding of the functional microbial community in growing media and its potential role towards a more responsible horticulture. © 2016 The Authors. Microbial Biotechnology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Applied Microbiology.

Seasonal and spatial changes in trace gases over megacities from Aura TES observations: two case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. E. Cady-Pereira

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES is collecting closely spaced observations over 19 megacities. The objective is to obtain measurements that will lead to better understanding of the processes affecting air quality in and around these cities, and to better estimates of the seasonal and interannual variability. We explore the TES measurements of ozone, ammonia, methanol and formic acid collected around the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA and in the vicinity of Lagos (Nigeria. The TES data exhibit seasonal signals that are correlated with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS CO and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD, with in situ measurements in the MCMA and with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-Chem model output in the Lagos area. TES was able to detect an extreme pollution event in the MCMA on 9 April 2013, which is also evident in the in situ data. TES data also show that biomass burning has a greater impact south of the city than in the caldera where Mexico City is located. TES measured enhanced values of the four species over the Gulf of Guinea south of Lagos. Since it observes many cities from the same platform with the same instrument and applies the same retrieval algorithms, TES data provide a very useful tool for easily comparing air quality measures of two or more cities. We compare the data from the MCMA and Lagos, and show that, while the MCMA has occasional extreme pollution events, Lagos consistently has higher levels of these trace gases.

Effect of vehicular traffic, remote sources and new particle formation on the activation properties of cloud condensation nuclei in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. E. Souto-Oliveira

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosol is the primary source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN. The microphysics and chemical composition of aerosols can affect cloud development and the precipitation process. Among studies conducted in Latin America, only a handful have reported the impact of urban aerosol on CCN activation parameters such as activation ratio (AR and activation diameter (Dact. With over 20 million inhabitants, the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP is the largest megacity in South America. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess the impact that remote sources and new particle formation (NPF events have on CCN activation properties in a South American megacity. The measurements were conducted in the MASP between August and September 2014. We measured the CCN within the 0.2–1.0 % range of supersaturation, together with particle number concentration (PNC and particle number distribution (PND, as well as trace-element concentrations and black carbon (BC. NPF events were identified on 35 % of the sampling days. Combining multivariate analysis in the form of positive matrix factorization (PMF with an aerosol profile from lidar and HYSPLIT model analyses allowed us to identify the main contribution of vehicular traffic on all days and sea salt and biomass burning from remote regions on 28 and 21 % of the sampling days, respectively. The AR and Dact parameters showed distinct patterns for daytime with intense vehicular traffic and nighttime periods. For example, CCN activation was lower during the daytime than during the nighttime periods, a pattern that was found to be associated mainly with local road-traffic emissions. A decrease in CCN activation was observed on the NPF event days, mainly due to high concentrations of particles with smaller diameters. We also found that aerosols from sea salt, industrial emissions, and biomass burning had minor effects on Dact. For example, nights with biomass burning and vehicular emissions

Fast food consumption and its associations with obesity and hypertension among children: results from the baseline data of the Childhood Obesity Study in China Mega-cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yaling; Wang, Liang; Xue, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wang, Youfa

2017-12-06

China has seen rapid increase in obesity and hypertension prevalence and fast food consumption over the past decade. We examined status and risk factors for Western- and Chinese fast food consumption and their associations with health outcomes in Chinese children, and examined how maternal factors were associated with child health outcomes. Data of 1626 students aged 7-16 (11.6 ± 2.0) years and their parents in four mega-cities across China (Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Xi'an) were collected in the 2015 baseline survey of the Childhood Obesity Study in China Mega-cities. Weight, height, waist circumference, and blood pressure were measured. Food intake was assessed using questionnaire. Mixed models were used to examine the associations. Among the children, 11.1% were obese, 19.7% were centrally obese, and 9.0% had hypertension. Obesity prevalence was much higher in boys than in girls (15.2% vs. 6.9% and 27.4% vs. 11.7%, respectively, both P fast food, respectively, over the past 3 months. Compared to those with college or above maternal education level, those with elementary school or below maternal education level were 49% more likely to consume Western fast food (odds ratio [OR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49 [1.10-2.03]). Chinese fast food consumption rate increased by 12% with each year of increase in child's age (OR and 95% CI: 1.12 [1.02-1.23]). No significant associations between fast food consumption and health outcomes were detected. Adjusting for Western fast food consumption, children with lower maternal education were 71% and 43% more likely to have obesity and central obesity (ORs and 95% CIs: 1.71 [1.12-2.61] and 1.43 [1.00-2.03], respectively), and maternal body mass index was positively associated with child obesity, central obesity, and hypertension (ORs and 95% CIs: 1.11 [1.06-1.17], 1.12 [1.07-1.17], and 1.09 [1.03-1.15], respectively). Results were similar when Chinese fast food consumption was adjusted for. The prevalence of

Effect of vehicular traffic, remote sources and new particle formation on the activation properties of cloud condensation nuclei in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Souto-Oliveira, Carlos Eduardo; de Fátima Andrade, Maria; Kumar, Prashant; Juliano da Silva Lopes, Fábio; Babinski, Marly; Landulfo, Eduardo

2016-11-01

Atmospheric aerosol is the primary source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The microphysics and chemical composition of aerosols can affect cloud development and the precipitation process. Among studies conducted in Latin America, only a handful have reported the impact of urban aerosol on CCN activation parameters such as activation ratio (AR) and activation diameter (Dact). With over 20 million inhabitants, the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) is the largest megacity in South America. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess the impact that remote sources and new particle formation (NPF) events have on CCN activation properties in a South American megacity. The measurements were conducted in the MASP between August and September 2014. We measured the CCN within the 0.2-1.0 % range of supersaturation, together with particle number concentration (PNC) and particle number distribution (PND), as well as trace-element concentrations and black carbon (BC). NPF events were identified on 35 % of the sampling days. Combining multivariate analysis in the form of positive matrix factorization (PMF) with an aerosol profile from lidar and HYSPLIT model analyses allowed us to identify the main contribution of vehicular traffic on all days and sea salt and biomass burning from remote regions on 28 and 21 % of the sampling days, respectively. The AR and Dact parameters showed distinct patterns for daytime with intense vehicular traffic and nighttime periods. For example, CCN activation was lower during the daytime than during the nighttime periods, a pattern that was found to be associated mainly with local road-traffic emissions. A decrease in CCN activation was observed on the NPF event days, mainly due to high concentrations of particles with smaller diameters. We also found that aerosols from sea salt, industrial emissions, and biomass burning had minor effects on Dact. For example, nights with biomass burning and vehicular emissions showed slightly lower

Free energy option and its relevance to improve domestic energy demands in southern Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moses Eterigho Emetere

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to seek an energy option that would benefit the growing energy demands. Domestic energy demands in southern Nigeria had increased greatly due to failing power programs and seasonal migrations. The fossil fuel option is gradually fading away due to environmental pollution and recent dynamic cost. The renewable energy option had been celebrated with little success in the coastal area of southern Nigeria. At the moment, the renewable energy option is very expensive with little guarantee on its efficiency with time. The data set used for this study was obtained from the Davis weather installation in Covenant University. The free energy option was considered. The cost and its environmental implication for domestic use were comparatively discussed alongside other energy options — using the Life cycle cost analysis. It was found out that free energy option is more affordable and efficient for domestic use.

Featured collection introduction: Water for megacities - challenges and solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Ari M. Michelsen; Zhuping Sheng; Andrew Feng Fang; Yizi Shang; Huilan Zhang

2015-01-01

The Earth has entered into Anthropocene, a new epoch dominated by people. The world’s urban population has grown more than four times during the past 60 years to 3.9 billion. Today, more people are living in the cities than in the countryside in most nations. Cities are growing bigger and faster than ever before (United Nations, 2014). Cities that have a population...

A growing danger: the risks posed by marihuana grow-ops

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradley, F. [Canadian Electricity Association (Canada)

2005-02-01

The proliferation of sophisticated illegal indoor multi-plant marihuana cultivation operations is discussed, focusing primarily on public health and safety issues. Public health issues arise from the high level of molds and pollens caused by high humidity, which can cause asthma, respiratory conditions and allergies, particularly among children, and the likelihood of deadly levels of carbon monoxide build-up resulting from faulty rerouting of the residence's ventilation system. Safety issues discussed are: fires and electrocutions associated with the use of electrical diversions or bipasses to circumvent utility meters, the chemical and electrical hazards involved in investigating and dismantling growing operations, the significant dangers to utility crews who must repair illegal electrical bypasses, injuries by the booby-traps planted to protect the operation from other criminals or law enforcement agents, and the physical danger from the violence, including homicide and assaults, carried out by operators to exert control over production and distribution. Although in general, there is a relaxed attitude towards marihuana use in Canada. there is growing evidence of increasing public concern over large-scale growing operations. Nevertheless, to date operators of grow-ops have been dealt with lightly by the justice system. For example, in British Columbia 11,733 cases have come to the attention of police during the 1997 to 2000 period. Of these about half were dealt with informally (i.e. 'no case' seizures) and 2,255 cases led to at least one offender being convicted. The majority of convictions did not result in custodial dispositions. Only 18 per cent of the cases resulted in prison sentences, the average term being only 4.5 months.

Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Ensuring the Competitive Development of Demand Response Options

OpenAIRE

Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

2015-01-01

This report provides an overview of the current debates about demand response development, focusing primarily on Europe, with some comparisons to the United States. ‘Demand response’ includes strategies that involve end-use customers adapting or altering their electricity demand in response to grid conditions or market prices. It is viewed as a multi-purpose power-system resource that enhances the energy system’s capacity to cope with increasing demand, rising costs of conventional transmissi...

Sizing Hydrogen Energy Storage in Consideration of Demand Response in Highly Renewable Generation Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mubbashir Ali

2018-05-01

Full Text Available From an environment perspective, the increased penetration of wind and solar generation in power systems is remarkable. However, as the intermittent renewable generation briskly grows, electrical grids are experiencing significant discrepancies between supply and demand as a result of limited system flexibility. This paper investigates the optimal sizing and control of the hydrogen energy storage system for increased utilization of renewable generation. Using a Finnish case study, a mathematical model is presented to investigate the optimal storage capacity in a renewable power system. In addition, the impact of demand response for domestic storage space heating in terms of the optimal sizing of energy storage is discussed. Finally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to observe the impact of a small share of controllable baseload production as well as the oversizing of renewable generation in terms of required hydrogen storage size.

On energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haefele, W.

1977-01-01

Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

The global anthropogenic gallium system: determinants of demand, supply and efficiency improvements.

Science.gov (United States)

Løvik, Amund N; Restrepo, Eliette; Müller, Daniel B

2015-05-05

Gallium has been labeled as a critical metal due to rapidly growing consumption, importance for low-carbon technologies such as solid state lighting and photovoltaics, and being produced only as a byproduct of other metals (mainly aluminum). The global system of primary production, manufacturing, use and recycling has not yet been described or quantified in the literature. This prevents predictions of future demand, supply and possibilities for efficiency improvements on a system level. We present a description of the global anthropogenic gallium system and quantify the system using a combination of statistical data and technical parameters. We estimated that gallium was produced from 8 to 21% of alumina plants in 2011. The most important applications of gallium are NdFeB permanent magnets, integrated circuits and GaAs/GaP-based light-emitting diodes, demanding 22-37%, 16-27%, and 11-21% of primary metal production, respectively. GaN-based light-emitting diodes and photovoltaics are less important, both with 2-6%. We estimated that 120-170 tons, corresponding to 40-60% of primary production, ended up in production wastes that were either disposed of or stored. While demand for gallium is expected to rise in the future, our results indicated that it is possible to increase primary production substantially with conventional technology, as well as improve the system-wide material efficiency.

Dealing with Demand in Electric Grids with an Adaptive Consumption Management Platform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego M. Jiménez-Bravo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The control of consumption in homes and workplaces is an increasingly important aspect if we consider the growing popularity of smart cities, the increasing use of renewable energies, and the policies of the European Union on using energy in an efficient and clean way. These factors make it necessary to have a system that is capable of predicting what devices are connected to an electrical network. For demand management, the system must also be able to control the power supply to these devices. To this end, we propose the use of a multiagent system that includes agents with advanced reasoning and learning capacities. More specifically, the agents incorporate a case-based reasoning system and machine learning techniques. Besides, the multiagent system includes agents that are specialized in the management of the data acquired and the electrical devices. The aim is to adjust the consumption of electricity in networks to the electrical demand, and this will be done by acting automatically on the detected devices. The proposed system provides promising results; it is capable of predicting what devices are connected to the power grid at a high success rate. The accuracy of the system makes it possible to act according to the device preferences established in the system. This allows for adjusting the consumption to the current demand situation, without the risk of important home appliances being switched off.

Forecast of energy demand in China and introduction of nuclear power using the clean development mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ikemoto, Ichiro

2003-01-01

As an economic energy source with low greenhouse gas emissions and essentially no resource limitations, nuclear power is a promising option for meeting the rapidly growing energy demands of China that is being driven by rapid population and economic growth. This paper examines an introduction scenario for nuclear power in China by using the clean development mechanism, based on quantitative evaluation of energy demand forecasts and the nuclear fuel cycle through 2100. The results of the case study concluded that in the short to mid term, large-scale light water reactors will primarily be sited in coastal areas where infrastructure development is advanced. In the future, as dispersed power sources in inland areas, small scale FBRs will be preferred due to their promising safety, operation and maintenance characteristics, ease of transportation of plant equipment and plant construction and the possibility of on-site nuclear fuel cycle. Evaluation of nuclear fuel cycle showed that this introduction scenario is feasible considering natural Uranium demand, Uranium enrichment capacity and reprocessing capacity. (author)

Bioethanol: the new source for growing CO{sub 2} demand?; Bioetanol: a nova fonte para a demanda crescente por CO{sub 2}?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martynowicz, Emile T.M.J. [Norit Haffmans, Venlo (Netherlands); Mekss, Varidots Dainis Thorvalds [Norit do Brasil Ltda., Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2009-11-01

In recent years, while customers demand a more sustainable greener CO{sub 2} source, the worldwide demand for food-grade CO{sub 2} is steadily increasing. In Brazil, a large bio-ethanol producer, the CO{sub 2} from the bio-ethanol production is an alternative. The research focused on the activated carbon filter in a CO{sub 2} recovery plant in respect to its removal efficiency for sulfurous compounds, such as H{sub 2}S and COS. Five different types of activated carbons were investigated both in pilot scale tests as well as in full scale tests. The different adsorption behavior in respect to COS for the activated carbon was attributed to the variance in mineral trace element composition of the activated carbon. Finally, an activated carbon was selected, that could remove H{sub 2}S, DMS and COS concentrations in the low ppm range to levels of less than 20 ppbw, in even more than 50 thermal adsorption/desorption cycles. This activated carbon was tested in a full scale plant and proved to be very suitable for the process conditions encountered in a bioethanol plant. (author)

Knowledge acquisition and interface design for learning on demand systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Wayne A.

1993-01-01

The rapid changes in our world precipitated by technology have created new problems and new challenges for education and training. A knowledge 'explosion' is occurring as our society moves toward a service oriented economy that relies on information as the major resource. Complex computer systems are beginning to dominate the workplace, causing alarming growth and change in many fields. The rapidly changing nature of the workplace, especially in fields related to information technology, requires that our knowledge be updated constantly. This characteristic of modern society poses seemingly unsolvable instructional problems involving coverage and obsolescence. The sheer amount of information to be learned is rapidly increasing, while at the same time some information becomes obsolete in light of new information. Education, therefore, must become a lifelong process that features learning of new material and skills as needed in relation to the job to be done. Because of the problems cited above, the current model of learning in advance may no longer be feasible in our high-technology world. In many cases, learning in advance is impossible because there are simply too many things to learn. In addition, learning in advance can be time consuming, and often results in decontextualized knowledge that does not readily transfer to the work environment. The large and growing discrepancy between the amount of potentially relevant knowledge available and the amount a person can know and remember makes learning on demand an important alternative to current instructional practices. Learning on demand takes place whenever an individual must learn something new in order to perform a task or make a decision. Learning on demand is a promising approach for addressing the problems of coverage and obsolescence because learning is contextualized and integrated into the task environment rather than being relegated to a separate phase that precedes work. Learning on demand allows learners

The Commercial Profitability of Growing Hybrid Eucalyptus Clones in The Coast Province, Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balozi Bekuta Kirongo

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the current high demand for timber, fuelwood, and building poles and the realization that tree growing may pay dividends in the short and long term, many farmers are planting trees on their farms. Farmers are increasingly planting eucalyptus partly due to the fast growth rates of the hybrid clones as well as the opportunity to earn money within a short time. In this paper we report on the profitability of growing eucalyptus hybrid clones in the coastal region, Kenya. Tree growth and cost data was sourced from farmers in Malindi, Kilifi, and Msambweni. Market information was sourced from hardwares in North and South Coast while tree growth models were used to provide average tree sizes at various ages. Results showed that a farmer could make a net income of upto Kshs.500,000.00 (USD6,250 in 5 years. Farmers in the South Coast (Kwale and Msambweni spent more on transport than their counterparts in the North Coast (near Gede-KEFRI. This, added to the fact that trees in the South Coast (Msambweni grew less compared to those in North Coast meant that farmers in the south made less profits.

Human capital demand in Brazil: The effects of adjustment cost, economic growth, exports and imports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joilson Dias

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to learn about the effects of the adjustment costs, economic growth, imports and exports on human capital labor demand. The dynamic model proposed by Sargent (1978 was adjusted to consider three types of human capital: (a one with fundamental education (1–8 years of schooling; (b one with secondary education level (9–11 years of education; (c and one with tertiary education level (12 years or more of schooling. Using state level panel data, the dynamic econometrics estimates showed the following results: (i the labor market adjustment costs are very higher; (ii the adjustment cost for the human capital with intermediary education level is the highest one compared to the others; (iii the states’ economic growth favor those with superior education; (iv the imports seems to favor the demand for those with intermediate education levels; (v the degree of openness does show some weak effect on the demand for human capitals with intermediate education. In sum, the growing demand for human capital with some superior education seems to be more associated to its lower adjustment cost and economic growth; the non-significance of real wage elasticity and high adjustment cost seems to indicate that the human capital with intermediate knowledge is in short supply; hence, economic education policy that increases supply of such human capital are in need.

Carcass traits and meat quality of different slow growing and fast growing broiler chickens

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Oblakova

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract. The experiment was conducted in the breeder farm of department Population genetics, reproduction and technologies of poultry and rabbits at the Agriculture Institute of Stara Zagora. Five lines from the National Gene Pool of Bulgaria: line Ss (Sussex, line E (Barred Plymouth Rock, line NG (New Hampshire, line F (NG x Red Rhode Island, line L (White Plymouth Rock were used as maternal forms in the crossing schedule and line M (Cornish as a paternal form for production of slow-growing broilers. The birds were grown to 84 days. Feeding was done with compound feeds according to the age: starter (1/14 days of age, grower (14/28 days of age, finisher (28/84 days of age. By the end of the experiment, slaughter analysis was performed with 3 female and 3 male broiler chickens per group with live weight corresponding to the average of each genotype. The live weight was determined, as well as the grill weight, the weights of cuts (breast, thighs, wings, edible offal (heart, liver, gizzard and abdominal fat. On the basis of these data, the slaughter yield and body parts ratios were calculated. The data for the live body weights of birds at slaughtering indicated the highest values for group V – 4040g, followed by groups ІV and ІІ – 3271.67g and 3186.67g, respectively (p<0.05. There was a statistically significant difference between the sexes with superiority of male birds (p<0.001. In the other 3 groups, breast meat percentage ranged from 19.48 to 19.84%. The share of thighs from the grill was the greatest in slow-growing chickens from group II – 33.01%, followed by group І – 32.35%, group IV – 32.18%, and the lowest- in groups ІІІ and V (31.91% and 31.18%, respectively. The analysis of data exhibited a significant effect of the genotype on water content of breast meat (resp. Dry matter, with lower values in slow-growing birds from group III – 73.19% (p<0.05, whereas in the other groups it ranged between 73.44 and 73.62%. The

Bioaccessibility and health risk of arsenic, mercury and other metals in urban street dusts from a mega-city, Nanjing, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu Xin; Zhang, Yun; Luo Jun; Wang Tijian; Lian Hongzhen; Ding Zhuhong

2011-01-01

The oral bioaccessibility and the human health risks of As, Hg and other metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Co, Cd, Cr, Mn, V and Fe) in urban street dusts from different land use districts in Nanjing (a mega-city), China were investigated. Both the total contents and the oral bioaccessibility estimated by the Simple Bioaccessibility Extraction Test (SBET) of the studied elements varied with street dusts from different land use districts. Cd, Zn, Mn, Pb, Hg and As showed high bioaccessibility. SBET-extractable contents of elements were significantly correlated with their total contents and the dust properties (pH, organic matter contents). The carcinogenic risk probability for As and Cr to children and adults were under the acceptable level ( -4 ). Hazard Quotient values for single elements and Hazard Index values for all studied elements suggested potential non-carcinogenic health risk to children, but not to adults. - Highlights: → Spatial variation of elements in street dusts from different land use districts. → Oral bioaccessibility of elements in street dusts from different land use districts. → Human health risks of elements in street dusts from different land use districts. - Bioaccessibility and health risks of trace elements differed with street dusts from different land use districts in Nanjing.

Introducing a demand-based electricity distribution tariff in the residential sector: Demand response and customer perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartusch, Cajsa; Wallin, Fredrik; Odlare, Monica; Vassileva, Iana; Wester, Lars

2011-01-01

Increased demand response is essential to fully exploit the Swedish power system, which in turn is an absolute prerequisite for meeting political goals related to energy efficiency and climate change. Demand response programs are, nonetheless, still exceptional in the residential sector of the Swedish electricity market, one contributory factor being lack of knowledge about the extent of the potential gains. In light of these circumstances, this empirical study set out with the intention of estimating the scope of households' response to, and assessing customers' perception of, a demand-based time-of-use electricity distribution tariff. The results show that households as a whole have a fairly high opinion of the demand-based tariff and act on its intrinsic price signals by decreasing peak demand in peak periods and shifting electricity use from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Households are sympathetic to demand-based tariffs, seeing as they relate to environmental issues. → Households adjust their electricity use to the price signals of demand-based tariffs. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a shift in electricity use from peak to off-peak hours. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a decrease in maximum demand in peak periods. → Magnitude of these effects increases over time.

Price elasticity matrix of demand in power system considering demand response programs

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Xinyao; Hui, Hongxun; Yang, Shengchun; Li, Yaping; Ding, Yi

2018-02-01

The increasing renewable energy power generations have brought more intermittency and volatility to the electric power system. Demand-side resources can improve the consumption of renewable energy by demand response (DR), which becomes one of the important means to improve the reliability of power system. In price-based DR, the sensitivity analysis of customer’s power demand to the changing electricity prices is pivotal for setting reasonable prices and forecasting loads of power system. This paper studies the price elasticity matrix of demand (PEMD). An improved PEMD model is proposed based on elasticity effect weight, which can unify the rigid loads and flexible loads. Moreover, the structure of PEMD, which is decided by price policies and load types, and the calculation method of PEMD are also proposed. Several cases are studied to prove the effectiveness of this method.

Market architecture and power demand management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rious, Vincent; Roques, Fabien

2014-12-01

Demand response is a cornerstone problem in electricity markets considering climate change constraint. Most liberalized electricity markets have a poor track record at developing demand response. In Europe, different models are considered for demand response, from a development under a regulated regime to a development under competitive perspectives. In this paper, focusing on demand response for mid-size and small consumers, we investigate which types of market signals should be sent to demand response aggregators to see demand response emerge as a competitive activity. Using data from the French power system over eight years, we compare the possible market design options to allow demand response to develop. Our simulations demonstrate that with the current market rules, demand response is not a profitable activity in the French electricity industry. Introducing a capacity remuneration could bring additional revenues to demand response aggregators if the power system has no over-capacity

Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

Science.gov (United States)

Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

2012-08-01

La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

Influence of Soil Based Growing Media on Vegetative Propagation of Selected Cultivars of Olea Europaea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, M. I.; Ashraf, M. I.; Malik, S. U.; Husaain, Q.

2016-01-01

Pothwar region of Pakistan is a natural habitat of Olea spp. There is a high demand of certified olive plants to establish olive orchids in the region, because native wild species are non-fruit bearing. Plants of certified fruit bearing olive (Olea europaea L.) cultivars are rarely available. Vegetative propagation of olive is highly responsive to texture of soil based growing media. This study examined the effect of growing media composition (soil texture and nutrients) on vegetative propagation of five cultivars of olive. The experiment was carried out in randomized complete block design (RCBD) with two factors factorial having 25 repeats of each four treatments. Plant growth and survival data were collected and analyzed for the influence of soil attributes. In sandy loam soil, cv. Bari-1 had 82 percent plant survival, highest number of roots per plant (3.5), and longest root length (13.01 cm). Highest number of shoots per plant (4.25) and maximum shoot length (15.64 cm) were also recorded for Bari-1 with sandy loam growing media. Silt loam soil is least suitable growing media for vegetative propagation of olive. In the silt loam soil, plants survival rate was 59 percent for cv. Gemlik, number of roots per plant was 1.5 for cv. Ottobrattica, minimum root length 5.65 cm, minimum number of shoots per plant one, and minimum shoot length 7.42 cm were recorded for cv. Pendolino with silt loam soil. Results suggested that sandy loam growing media is better than the others for vegetative propagation of olive. Cultivar Bari-1 performed better than the others examined in this study by indicating highest (1) survival percentage, (2) root and shoot length, and (3) number of roots and shoots produced within a specific period of time. (author)

Job demands-resources model

OpenAIRE

Bakker, Arnold; Demerouti, Eva

2013-01-01

markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerouti, 2007; Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner, & Schaufeli, 2001) and is inspired by job design and job stress theories. JD-R theory explains how job demands and resources have unique and multiplicative e...

Energy supply and demand in California

Science.gov (United States)

Griffith, E. D.

1978-01-01

The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

Bridging the scales in a eulerian air quality model to assess megacity export of pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Siour, G.; Colette, A.; Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Coll, I.; Meleux, F.

2013-08-01

In Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs), spatial scale interactions are often represented through off-line coupling between large and small scale models. However, those nested configurations cannot give account of the impact of the local scale on its surroundings. This issue can be critical in areas exposed to air mass recirculation (sea breeze cells) or around regions with sharp pollutant emission gradients (large cities). Such phenomena can still be captured by the mean of adaptive gridding, two-way nesting or using model nudging, but these approaches remain relatively costly. We present here the development and the results of a simple alternative multi-scale approach making use of a horizontal stretched grid, in the Eulerian CTM CHIMERE. This method, called "stretching" or "zooming", consists in the introduction of local zooms in a single chemistry-transport simulation. It allows bridging online the spatial scales from the city (∼1 km resolution) to the continental area (∼50 km resolution). The CHIMERE model was run over a continental European domain, zoomed over the BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) area. We demonstrate that, compared with one-way nesting, the zooming method allows the expression of a significant feedback of the refined domain towards the large scale: around the city cluster of BeNeLuX, NO2 and O3 scores are improved. NO2 variability around BeNeLux is also better accounted for, and the net primary pollutant flux transported back towards BeNeLux is reduced. Although the results could not be validated for ozone over BeNeLux, we show that the zooming approach provides a simple and immediate way to better represent scale interactions within a CTM, and constitutes a useful tool for apprehending the hot topic of megacities within their continental environment.

Particulate matter levels in a South American megacity: the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Jose; Rojas, Jhojan; Norabuena, Magdalena; Molina, Carolina; Toro, Richard A; Leiva-Guzmán, Manuel A

2017-11-13

The temporal and spatial trends in the variability of PM 10 and PM 2.5 from 2010 to 2015 in the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru, are studied and interpreted in this work. The mean annual concentrations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 have ranges (averages) of 133-45 μg m -3 (84 μg m -3 ) and 35-16 μg m -3 (26 μg m -3 ) for the monitoring sites under study. In general, the highest annual concentrations are observed in the eastern part of the city, which is a result of the pattern of persistent local winds entering from the coast in a south-southwest direction. Seasonal fluctuations in the particulate matter (PM) concentrations are observed; these can be explained by subsidence thermal inversion. There is also a daytime pattern that corresponds to the peak traffic of a total of 9 million trips a day. The PM 2.5 value is approximately 40% of the PM 10 value. This proportion can be explained by PM 10 re-suspension due to weather conditions. The long-term trends based on the Theil-Sen estimator reveal decreasing PM 10 concentrations on the order of -4.3 and -5.3% year -1 at two stations. For the other stations, no significant trend is observed. The metropolitan area of Lima-Callao is ranked 12th and 16th in terms of PM 10 and PM 2.5 , respectively, out of 39 megacities. The annual World Health Organization thresholds and national air quality standards are exceeded. A large fraction of the Lima population is exposed to PM concentrations that exceed protection thresholds. Hence, the development of pollution control and reduction measures is paramount.

INCREASING DEMANDS FOR NATURAL STONES USAGE AROUND THE WORLD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HASAN ÜÇPIRTI

1998-12-01

Full Text Available Due to great demands in construction business, the stone industry has been growing very fast around the world. In fact, the technological iınproveınents on the ınachinery of marble and granite processing plant and quarry in recent years gives impulse to the stone business. According to studies reported� there are recognizable increments on both productions and constructions. Natural stones become driving forces in tl1e countries economy. In this study� so ın e statistical nuınbers for productions and consumption of natural stones will be presented in a base of countries that strongly involve in stone business. The importance of the econoınical impacts of natural stone on countries econoıny wiJI be emphasized. Then, the future of natural stones and its business will be discussed

DemandStat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

DemandStat is an accurate and up-to-date international statistics database dedicated to energy demand, with an unrivaled level of details for powerful market analysis. It provides detailed consumption statistics (30 sectors) on all energies, detailed 2003 data and historical annual data since 1970, frequent data revision and update (2 updates options), 150 data sources gathered and expertized, all data on a single database Consistent and homogeneous statistics, in line with all major data providers (IEA, Eurostat, ADB, OLADE, etc), no ruptures in time-series with easy request building and data analysis and reactive support from data experts. (A.L.B.)

Organization of growing random networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krapivsky, P. L.; Redner, S.

2001-01-01

The organizational development of growing random networks is investigated. These growing networks are built by adding nodes successively, and linking each to an earlier node of degree k with an attachment probability A k . When A k grows more slowly than linearly with k, the number of nodes with k links, N k (t), decays faster than a power law in k, while for A k growing faster than linearly in k, a single node emerges which connects to nearly all other nodes. When A k is asymptotically linear, N k (t)∼tk -ν , with ν dependent on details of the attachment probability, but in the range 2 -2 power-law tail, where s is the component size. The out component has a typical size of order lnt, and it provides basic insights into the genealogy of the network

EXPERIENCE GROWING A FRY WALLEYE (STIZOSTEDION LUCIOPERCA UNDER DIFFERENT PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Martsenuk

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The question of growing and cultivation technology a fry walleye (Stizostedion Sander lucioperca, in various conditions of intensification and cultivation of the objects on the example of Ukraine, Poland and Czech Republic. Methodology. Some of the research conducted in JSC "Lebedynska RMS." There was a corresponding work of herd sires and fry. Also used published articles and monographs using statistical analysis methods. Findings. The existing technology of breeding and raising perch as in natural waters and artificial reproduction. Also, this is a clear description of the biology walleye in the early stages postembryogenesis perch. Also highlighted key points in the technology of the object at different aquaculture technologies. Originality. On the basis of existing technologies were analyzed current methods for growing and perch are to be brought in fish farms Ukraine, depending on the technical capabilities of enterprises. Practical value. Comparative review of technology growing perch allows farmers to introduce more appropriate technology of walleye for your own needs. Since it is directly a particular manufacturer planting material of the object is necessary to choose the most suitable and perfect technology, based on the existing herd sires, space, equipment and ability to use hormonal stimulation. So can use the following methods of breeding walleye: natural spawning, uncontrolled; controlled natural spawning; spawning in lake; artificial spawning; spawning outside-seasonal. During the early stages of walleye can identify a number of critical periods greatly affect the possibility of wound development: small body size at the final stage of resorption of yolk sac; small size of the cavity; feed intake in the water column; high sensitivity to stress; belonging to the group of fish with a closed bladder; great demands on environmental conditions; relative preferences heat; penchant for cannibalism.

Pit Latrine Emptying Behavior and Demand for Sanitation Services in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marion W. Jenkins

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Pit latrines are the main form of sanitation in unplanned areas in many rapidly growing developing cities. Understanding demand for pit latrine fecal sludge management (FSM services in these communities is important for designing demand-responsive sanitation services and policies to improve public health. We examine latrine emptying knowledge, attitudes, behavior, trends and rates of safe/unsafe emptying, and measure demand for a new hygienic latrine emptying service in unplanned communities in Dar Es Salaam (Dar, Tanzania, using data from a cross-sectional survey at 662 residential properties in 35 unplanned sub-wards across Dar, where 97% had pit latrines. A picture emerges of expensive and poor FSM service options for latrine owners, resulting in widespread fecal sludge exposure that is likely to increase unless addressed. Households delay emptying as long as possible, use full pits beyond what is safe, face high costs even for unhygienic emptying, and resort to unsafe practices like ‘flooding out’. We measured strong interest in and willingness to pay (WTP for the new pit emptying service at 96% of residences; 57% were WTP ≥U.S. $17 to remove ≥200 L of sludge. Emerging policy recommendations for safe FSM in unplanned urban communities in Dar and elsewhere are discussed.

VOCATIONAL MASTERS TRANING IN THE CONTEXT OF GROWING SOCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL MOBILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandr G. Kislov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The study is aimed at investigating the trends of vocational training development reflecting the demands of changing professional world.Methods: The applied methods include historic, genetic and socio-context analysis of the current developments in vocational training sphere.Results: The research findings prove the priority of meta-professional and meta-competency landmarks in vocational masters training.Scientific novelty: The author points out the lagging behind of the Federal State Educational Standard and corresponding vocational training programs compared to the fast growing social and professional mobility. The paper emphasizes the urgent need for vocational pedagogical education as a part of vocational training at all levels - the secondary, higher and postgraduate.Practical significance: The research outcomes can be used for further development of conceptual, methodological, organizational and contextual bases of vocational masters training.

GHG and black carbon emission inventories from Mezquital Valley: The main energy provider for Mexico Megacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Montelongo-Reyes, M M; Otazo-Sánchez, E M; Romo-Gómez, C; Gordillo-Martínez, A J; Galindo-Castillo, E

2015-09-15

The greenhouse gases and black carbon emission inventory from IPCC key category Energy was accomplished for the Mezquital Valley, one of the most polluted regions in Mexico, as the Mexico City wastewater have been continuously used in agricultural irrigation for more than a hundred years. In addition, thermoelectric, refinery, cement and chemistry industries are concentrated in the southern part of the valley, near Mexico City. Several studies have reported air, soil, and water pollution data and its main sources for the region. Paradoxically, these sources contaminate the valley, but boosted its economic development. Nevertheless, no research has been done concerning GHG emissions, or climate change assessment. This paper reports inventories performed by the 1996 IPCC methodology for the baseline year 2005. Fuel consumption data were derived from priority sectors such as electricity generation, refineries, manufacturing & cement industries, transportation, and residential use. The total CO2 emission result was 13,894.9 Gg, which constituted three-quarters of Hidalgo statewide energy category. The principal CO2 sources were energy transformation (69%) and manufacturing (19%). Total black carbon emissions were estimated by a bottom-up method at 0.66 Gg. The principal contributor was on-road transportation (37%), followed by firewood residential consumption (26%) and cocked brick manufactures (22%). Non-CO2 gas emissions were also significant, particularly SO2 (255.9 Gg), which accounts for 80% of the whole Hidalgo State emissions. Results demonstrated the negative environmental impact on Mezquital Valley, caused by its role as a Megacity secondary fuel and electricity provider, as well as by the presence of several cement industries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Demands Set Upon Modern Cartographic Visualization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Frangeš

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Scientific cartography has the task to develop and research new methods of cartographic visualization. General demands are set upon modern cartographic visualization, which encompasses digital cartography and computer graphics: legibility, clearness, accuracy, plainness and aesthetics. In this paper, it is explained in detail what demands should be met in order to satisfy the general demands set. In order to satisfy the demand of legibility, one should respect conditions of minimal sizes, appropriate graphical density and better differentiation of known features. Demand of clearness needs to be met by fulfilling conditions of simplicity, contrasting quality and layer arrangement of cartographic representation. Accuracy, as the demand on cartographic visualization, can be divided into positioning accuracy and accuracy signs. For fulfilling the demand of plainness, the conditions of symbolism, traditionalism and hierarchic organization should be met. Demand of aesthetics will be met if the conditions of beauty and harmony are fulfilled.

[Municipal planning of care services between competition neutrality and demand planning. An example of care structure planning in Rhineland-Palatinate].

Science.gov (United States)

Klie, T; Pfundstein, T

2010-04-01

In times of demographic and social change, it is increasingly important to ensure the availability of care services to cover the growing demand. With the implementation of the German long-term insurance act in 1994, the responsibility of states and municipalities was maintained; however, given the long-term care legislation's market orientation and competition neutrality, the classic instruments for demand planning and supervision of infrastructure developments were lost. This leads to new challenges for states and municipalities: their conventional objective-oriented planning lacks professional and juridical legitimization. Calculations of requirements must relate to methodology and professional expertise. In order to exercise their influence on infrastructure development, instruments of demand planning other than subsidization are required. Using the example of Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate) and the newly implemented care structure planning, the concept of care monitoring is introduced, and instruments to influence infrastructure development are outlined.

North American oil demand outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, M.B.

1995-01-01

An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

Dynamic inventory rationing strategies for inventory systems with two demand classes, Poisson demand and backordering

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teunter, Ruud H.; Haneveld, Willem K. Klein

2008-01-01

We study inventory systems with two demand classes (critical and non-critical), Poisson demand and backordering. We analyze dynamic rationing strategies where the number of items reserved for critical demand depends on the remaining time until the next order arrives. Different from results in the

The struggle for energy. How the growing need for oil and gas will cause a world crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Op het Veld, R.

2008-07-01

Due to the rapid and continued economic growth of China and India, energy demand is increasing rapidly. At the same time, the Western world is facing decreasing oil and gas reserves. As a result, it becomes increasingly dependent on the Middle East and countries such as Russia and Venezuela. Shell and ExxonMobil, who were once dominant oil giants, are losing territory to state energy companies such as Saudi Aramco and Gazprom. The author analyses all these developments, also based on a series of interviews with various experts from trade and industry and the government in the Netherlands and abroad. The author states that the only solution for the energy issue and the climate issue is the development of alternative energy sources. However, for the present this will not suffice to meet growing demand. The battle for energy ultimately paints a picture that is not rosy, involving a crisis and an increasing international rat race for energy. [mk] [nl

Pay for load demand - electricity pricing with load demand component

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyrko, Jurek; Sernhed, Kerstin; Abaravicius, Juozas

2003-01-01

This publication is part of a project called Direct and Indirect Load Control in Buildings. Peak load problems have attracted considerable attention in Sweden during last three winters, caused by a significant decrease in available reserve power, which is a consequence of political decisions and liberalisation of the electricity market. A possible way to lower peak loads, avoiding electricity shortages and reducing electricity costs both for users and utilities, is to make customers experience the price difference during peak load periods and, in this way, become more aware of their energy consumption pattern and load demand. As of January 1st 2001, one of the Swedish energy utilities - Sollentuna Energi - operating in the Stockholm area, introduced a new electricity tariff with differentiated grid fees based on a mean value of the peak load every month. This tariff was introduced for all residential customers in the service area. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which a Load Demand Component, included in electricity pricing, can influence energy use and load demand in residential buildings. What are the benefits and disadvantages for customers and utilities? This paper investigates the impact of the new tariff on the utility and different types of typical residential customers, making comparisons with previous tariff. Keywords Load demand, electricity pricing, tariff, residential customers, energy behaviour

Preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet U.S. transportation energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, M. K.; Moore, J. S.

2002-01-01

Recent studies have indicated that substitutes for conventional petroleum resources will be needed to meet U.S. transportation energy demand in the first half of this century. One possible substitute is natural gas which can be used as a transportation fuel directly in compressed natural gas or liquefied natural gas vehicles or as resource fuel for the production of hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. This paper contains a preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet future U.S. transportation fuel demand. Several scenarios of natural gas demand, including transportation demand, in the U.S. to 2050 are developed. Natural gas resource estimates for the U. S. are discussed. Potential Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S. are estimated. Two scenarios of potential imports from outside North America are also developed. Considering all these potential imports, U.S. natural gas production requirements to 2050 to meet the demand scenarios are developed and compared with the estimates of U.S. natural gas resources. The comparison results in a conclusion that (1) given the assumptions made, there are likely to be supply constraints on the availability of U.S. natural gas supply post-2020 and (2) if natural gas use in transportation grows substantially, it will have to compete with other sectors of the economy for that supply-constrained natural gas

Developments on the European energy market. Part 1. Natural gas supply. Extra import covers growing natural gas demand in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Gelder, J.W.

2000-01-01

This first part of a series on developments in the European gas market features the growth in gas supply. 35% of the gas demand must be covered from sources outside Europe. For the future additional imports are required from countries such as the Russian Federation, Algeria and Nigeria. Over the next few years the artificial link between ga and oil prices will disappear, bringing the gas price to a structurally lower level. It will be of crucial importance that gas suppliers will not be able to form cartels to keep prices high. All competing projects will curb price increases on the European market, but will definitely result in more freedom of choice for European natural gas consumers

Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1969-01-01

This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

Gas demand growth and trade in South-East Europe: What perspectives for Bulgaria?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brendow, K.

2002-01-01

Gas demand and trade are said to grow in South-East Europe, and inter-regional gas transit is believed to gain importance. Despite a 5 to 10 year delay in economics and energy reforms compared to EU accession countries, prospects for economic recovery and a sustained growth of gas demand around 3.9%/year to 2020 in the region and 6.7% in Bulgaria appear real. Growth is contained by investment needs, vested interests in, and competition from, coal and nuclear as well as concerns about future gas prices, and import dependence. The densification of national and regional gas systems will proceed. Inter-regional (North-South and East-West) high-capacity gas pipeline will emerge as a tempting business perspective. While these perspectives are medium- and long-term, competition among pipeline projects is already waging at present. Bulgaria, Romania and Greece position themselves so as to safeguard future transit revenues, the latter country, in cooperation with Turkey, appearing to move fast with the support of the EU. A region wide optimisation of infrastructure projects appears desirable, however national strategic interests may conflict. (author)

Uranium supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-05-01

This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koljonen, Tiina; Lehtilä, Antti

2012-01-01

Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected. - Highlights: ► Scenarios of final energy demands in developing Asia include large uncertainties. ► Impact of accelerated Asian energy demand on global mitigation costs is quite low. ► Accelerated Asian energy consumption increases GHG abatement costs in the OECD. ► 3.7 W/m 3 target is feasible in costs even with accelerated Asian energy demands. ► 2.6 W/m 2 target is beyond

Food safety information and food demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Smed, Sinne; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2005-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze how news about food-related health risks affects consumers’ demands for safe food products. Design/methodology/approach – By identifying structural breaks in an econometrically estimated demand model, news with permanent impact on demand...... induces a permanent increase in the demand for pasteurized eggs, while more moderate negative news influences demand temporarily and to a lesser extent. There is, however, considerable variation in the response to food safety news across socio-demographic groups of consumers. Research limitations...... is distinguished from news with temporary impact. The Danish demand for pasteurized versus shell eggs is used as an illustrative case. Findings – Negative safety news about one product variety can provide significant stimulation to the demand for safe varieties. Severe negative news about the safety of shell eggs...

Reasons for the Fast Growing Seawater Desalination Capacity in Algeria

KAUST Repository

Drouiche, Nadjib

2011-05-24

Seawater/brackish water desalination has been widely adopted by the Algerian Government in the last few years to supply potable water to municipality for various purposes mainly for domestic and industrial uses especially in areas where demand is high due to shortage of fresh water resources, rapid population growth and development of industry and tourism. Ten years ago, desalination was confined to the industrial use only especially in oil and gas industry as the country was relying on rain water and other available sources to supply fresh water to municipalities. Due to chronic drought conditions, the Ministry of Water Resources reviewed the national water strategy and a strong option for desalination was adopted where an ambitious program was thus put into action. Sixteen mega-plants, with capacities ranging from 100,000 to 500,000 m3 per day, primarily based on Reverse Osmosis technology, were launched in the last few years making the Algerian desalination program one of the world\\'s fastest growing markets. Five desalination plants, including the Africa\\'s largest seawater reverse osmosis project with a total capacity of 200,000 m3 per day, are already in operation and the remaining projects are either under construction or in commissioning. An integrated water resources management was also adopted as additional option to cuter the increasing water demand as there is also a great potential for water reuse and conventional water treatment. An additional benefit of this would be reducing the volume of treated wastewater disposed into the environment. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Carbon dioxide and methane measurements from the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project – Part 1: calibration, urban enhancements, and uncertainty estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. R. Verhulst

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2 and methane (CH4 from the Los Angeles (LA Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four extra-urban sites including two marine sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI, one continental site located in Victorville (VIC, in the high desert northeast of LA, and one continental/mid-troposphere site located on Mount Wilson (MWO in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within  ∼  1 ppm CO2 and  ∼  10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. Urban and suburban sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of  ∼  20 ppm CO2 and  ∼  150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as  ∼  15 ppm CO2 and  ∼  80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00–16:00 LT, local time, which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014. The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much

A demanding market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, M.

1997-01-01

The article relates to the oil and natural gas market, and it gives a survey of proved reserves at the end of 1996 worldwide. The long term trend of increasing world energy demand has seen a major rise during 1996 when global consumption grew by 3%. But worldwide demand, excluding the Former Soviet Union, shows this figure increasing further to 3.7% for the whole of last year according to statistics. 3 figs

Sizewell: UK power demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1986-01-01

The Sizewell Inquiry was about whether the next power stations to be built in the UK should be nuclear or coal and, if nuclear, PWRs or AGRs. During the period of the Inquiry forecasts of demand for electricity were low. Now, however, it seems that the forecast demand is much increased. This uncertainty in demand and the wide regional variations are examined in some detail. Facts and figures on electricity sales (area by area) are presented. Also the minutes of supply lost per consumer per year. These show that security of supply is also a problem. It is also shown that the way electricity is used has changed. Whilst electricity generation has been changing to large-scale, centralised power stations the demand patterns may make smaller scale, quickly-constructed units more sensible. The questions considered at the Sizewell Inquiry may, indeed, no longer be the right ones. (UK)

46 CFR 169.689 - Demand loads.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Demand loads. 169.689 Section 169.689 Shipping COAST... Electrical Electrical Installations on Vessels of 100 Gross Tons and Over § 169.689 Demand loads. Demand loads must meet § 111.60-7 of this chapter except that smaller demand loads for motor feeders are...

Peculiarities in the demand forecast for an HSRL connecting two countries. Case of Kuala Lumpur Singapore HSRL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tadeo Martin, A.; Rey Romero, P.

2016-07-01

The High Speed Rail Line (HSRL) between Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Singapore (SP) is aimed at reducing to 90 minutes the travel time between two of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and fast-growing economic engines. Ineco was hired by the Government of Malaysia to forecast the demand for the future HSRL. The Government of Malaysia played a key role when firstly defining the current situation on the corridor and the features of the HSRL, and then providing Ineco with the studies previously developed by them. Besides the obvious interest in connecting both capital cities, Malaysia wishes to promote the economic development of intermediate cities, whereas Singapore, a 718 square-kilometer city-state and island, is interested in improving its connection with Nusajaya - a Malaysian city that is being developed just across the border and regarded as land reserves. Two kinds of services will be provided on the new rail infrastructure: non-stop services between KL and SP, and services with 6 intermediate stops on the Malaysian side. The aim of this paper is to describe the process to forecast the demand for the HSRL Kuala Lumpur – Singapore by focusing on the peculiarities of an international HSRL. Identifying these aspects at an early stage is vital to get a better demand estimate and to reconsider the HSRL characteristics if necessary. The demand for the new line was calculated by applying a three-step model: generation model, distribution model and modal split model. In 2030, 10 years after the opening year, the HSRL is expected to move 23 - 26 million passengers – baseline and optimistic scenarios, respectively -, which represents an 18.5% share of the total demand on the corridor. The demand for the KL-SP pair will account for 30% the demand for the future HSRL. (Author)

Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Popescu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

Intrinsic gas production kinetics of selected intermediates in anaerobic filters for demand-orientated energy supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Krümpel, Johannes Hagen; Illi, Lukas; Lemmer, Andreas

2018-03-01

As a consequence of a growing share of solar and wind power, recent research on biogas production highlighted a need for demand-orientated, flexible gas production to provide grid services and enable a decentralized stabilization of the electricity infrastructure. Two-staged anaerobic digestion is particularly suitable for shifting the methane production into times of higher demand due to the spatio-temporal separation of hydrolysis and methanogenesis. To provide a basis for predicting gas production in an anaerobic filter, kinetic parameters of gas production have been determined experimentally in this study. A new methodology is used, enabling their determination during continuous operation. An order in methane production rate could be established by comparing the half lives of methane production. The order was beginning with the fastest: acetic acid>ethanol>butyric acid>iso-butyric acid>valeric acid>propionic acid>1,2propanediol>lactic acid. However, the mixture of a natural hydrolysate from the acidification tank appeared to produce methane faster than all single components tested.

Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

OpenAIRE

Ivan S. Milojević; Rade V. Guberinić

2012-01-01

If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information), then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicte...