WorldWideScience

Sample records for megacities growing demand

  1. Transportation in megacities. Growing demand and emissions - a comparative analysis of sustainability in developed and developing economies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bose, R K [Tata Energy Research Inst. (India)

    1996-12-01

    The urban transport problem is fundamentally similar in all large cities. The basic causes are the same and so are many of the consequences, although there are some differences in degree between cities in developed and developing economies. Transport systems in large cities of the developing economies as compared to the developed economies are characterized by: (a) much lower level of motorization of transport and travel requirement, (b) more rapid rates of economic growth, population growth, and the growth in number of motor vehicles, (c) higher population densities, (d) much lower per capita energy consumption and emissions of carbon dioxide, (e) reduced access to capital and to advanced environmental technologies. Despite greater level of vehicle ownership, higher rate of trip generation and increased use of energy on a per capita basis in cities of developed countries, it is the large cities in the developing countries that, in general suffer most from growing traffic congestion, road accidents, energy use and emissions, overcrowding of public transport, and poor conditions for pedestrians and cyclists. (au) 20 refs.

  2. Sulphur demand growing. [Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-01-20

    Sulfur markets look better going into 1975 than they have for several years, as North American demand growth is being filled largely by elemental sulfur producers and overseas. Demand is rising as fast as the capacity of Canadian transportation and handling facilities. It will take a long time to make much of a dent in the total Alberta stockpile of 14 million long tons at the end of 1974, with involuntary production from sour gas plants exceeding sales volume since 1972. However, there is some encouragement in the approaching peakout of production combined with a substantial increase in price since the low point of the cycle at the beginning of 1973, and a predicted rise of at least 20% in domestic (North American) sales this year over 1974.

  3. Millennium bim managing growing demand

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes, Francisca Barbosa Malpique de Paiva

    2014-01-01

    Millennium bim, the Mozambican operation of Millennium bcp group, was the Company selected to serve as background for the development of a teaching case in Marketing. This case is followed by a teaching note, and is intended to be used as a pedagogical tool in undergraduate and/or graduate programs. Even though Mozambique is still characterized by high financial exclusion, the number of people entering within the banking industry has been growing at a fast pace. Actually, the demand for fi...

  4. Supplies should match growing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmusen, H.J.

    1997-01-01

    The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

  5. Growing energy demand - environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rama Rao, G.A.

    2012-01-01

    Scientists can bring information, insights, and analytical skills to bear on matters of public concern. Often they can help the public and its representatives to understand the likely causes of events (such as natural and technological disasters) and to estimate the possible effects of projected policies. Often they can testify to what is not possible. Even so, scientists can seldom bring definitive answers to matters of public debate. Some issues are too complex to fit within the current scope of science, or there may be little reliable information available, or the values involved may lie outside of science. Scientists and technologists strive to find an answer to the growing energy demand

  6. Petroleum demand continues to grow but slowly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1998-01-01

    While it is always entertaining and intellectually stimulating to look at all the marvelous technological alternatives just around the corner for transport, the transport task in Australia continues to grow and so does petroleum consumption. Australia presently consumes more than 750,000 barrels per day of petroleum products. Latest figures are given for petroleum consumption up to the end of August 1998. They indicate that total demand for petrol has continued to grow, but very slowly. Growth in 1997-1998 compared with 1996-1997 was only 0.3%. This trend for very low growth has been continued into July and August, perhaps indicative of a slow down in the economy

  7. Demand grows in N. America as gas supply sources shift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1996-01-01

    Growing demand for gas as a power-generation fuel is combining with changing patterns of gas transportation to present North American producers and pipelines with a series of new challenges. Results of a recent Enron study show how natural gas supplies available to US markets continue to shift their center of gravity toward Canadian and western sources. These changes--demand growth paced by electricity generation and supply source relocation--plus extraordinary gas basin price differentials this winter, point to (a) the opportunities for and risks of adding pipeline capacity in the US and Canada, on the one hand, and (b) tough decisions that may need to be made by Gulf of Mexico and Midcontinent area producers, on the other, to compete in an environment of changing economics and infrastructure

  8. A Growing Demand for Monitoring and Evaluation in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Porter

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available When decision-makers want to use evidence from monitoring and evaluation (M&E systems to assist them in making choices, there is a demand for M&E. When there is great capacity to supply M&E information, but low capacity to demand quality evidence, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. In this context, as Picciotto (2009 observed, ‘monitoring masquerades as evaluation’. This article applies this observation, using six case studies of African M&E systems, by asking: What evidence is there that African governments are developing stronger endogenous demand for evidence generated from M&E systems? The argument presented here is that demand for evidence is increasing, leading to further development of M&E systems, with monitoring being dominant. As part of this dominance there are attempts to align monitoring systems to emerging local demand, whilst donor demands are still important in several countries. There is also evidence of increasing demand through government-led evaluation systems in South Africa, Uganda and Benin. One of the main issues that this article notes is that the M&E systems are not yet conceptualised within a reform effort to introduce a comprehensive results-based orientation to the public services of these countries. Results concepts are not yet consistently applied throughout the M&E systems in the case countries. In addition, the results-based notions that are applied appear to be generating perverse incentives that reinforce upward compliance and contrôle to the detriment of more developmental uses of M&E evidence.

  9. Managing the growing energy demand - The case of Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Kholy, Hosni; Faried, Ragy

    2010-09-15

    The electric energy consumption rate in Egypt has an average increase of 7% per year through the last three decades. In order to satisfy the ever increasing energy demand, several actions were, and have to be taken. These actions have to be carried out in parallel. The one having the greatest effect is the measures carried out for energy conservation and loss reduction. Diversifying the energy source such as utilization of Renewable Energy technologies can contribute to satisfying the demand and extending the hydro-carbon reserves life. Regional integration of electrical networks will save expenditures used to build additional power plants.

  10. Meeting India's growing energy demand with nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matzie, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: With world energy demand expected to nearly double by 2030, the need for safe, reliable and clean energy is imperative. In India, energy demand has outpaced the increase in energy production, with the country experiencing as much as a 12 percent gap between peak demand and availability. To meet demand, nuclear power is the ideal solution for providing baseload electricity, and as much as 40-60 GWe of nuclear capacity will need to be added throughout the county over the next 20 years. This presentation will describe the benefits of nuclear power compared to other energy sources, provide an overview of new nuclear power plant construction projects worldwide, and explain the benefits and advantages of the Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant. The presentation will also outline the steps that Westinghouse is taking to help facilitate new nuclear construction in India, and how the company's 'Buy Where We Build' approach to supply chain management will positively impact the Indian economy through continued in-country supplier agreements, job creation, and the exporting of materials and components to support AP1000 projects outside of India. Finally, the presentation will show that the experience Westinghouse is gaining in constructing AP1000 plants in both China and the United States will help ensure the success of projects in India

  11. Megacities and tall buildings: symbiosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarik, Daniel; Ursini, Shawn; Wood, Antony

    2018-03-01

    Anyone concerned with the development of human civilization in the 21st Century will likely have heard the term «megacity». It is - as it should be - increasingly prevalent in both mainstream and academic discussions of the great trends of our time: urbanization, rising technological and physical connectivity, increasingly polarized extremes of wealth and poverty, environmental degradation, and climate change. It is a subject as large and far-reaching as its name implies. This paper sets the scene on how megacities and the built environment are growing together, and examines the implications for those who plan, design, develop and operate tall buildings and urban infrastructure.

  12. Evidence is growing on demand side of an oil peak

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-15

    After years of continued growth, the number of miles driven by Americans started falling in December 2007. Not only are the number of miles driven falling, but as cars become more fuel efficient, they go further on fewer gallons - further reducing demand for gasoline. This trend is expected to accelerate. Drivers include, along with higher-efficiency cars, mass transit, reversal in urban sprawl, biofuels, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

  13. Growing Brazilian demand to spur gas network in South America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deffarges, E.H.; Maurer, L.I.A.

    1993-01-01

    A recent combination in South America of economic and geopolitical factors is prompting development of a new integrated gas-pipeline network in the continent's Southern Cone. The crucial factors include privatization, regional integration, economic growth, and environmental concerns. The area, Latin America's largest regional entity, includes Brazil (population 150 million and a 1990 GNP of about $375 billion, 9th largest in the world), Argentina (population 32 million and the third largest Latin American economy after Brazil and Mexico), Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay are members of the MercoSur economic bloc whose objective is to develop free trade in the region. There are very few integrated pipeline networks in the world. Besides the giant North American system, with hundreds of producers and pipelines, there is only one other large integrated network. It connects continental European countries to their outside suppliers such as Norway, the C.I.S., and Algeria. The emergence of a new pipeline system is therefore important for the natural-gas industry worldwide and even more so if it occurs in a region now growing rapidly after a decade of economic difficulties

  14. Electrocoagulation process to Chemical and Biological Oxygen Demand treatment from carwash grey water in Ahvaz megacity, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Mohammad Javad; Takdastan, Afshin; Jorfi, Sahand; Neisi, Abdolkazem; Farhadi, Majid; Yari, Ahmad Reza; Dobaradaran, Sina; Khaniabadi, Yusef Omidi

    2017-04-01

    In this work, we present the result of an electric coagulation process with iron and aluminum electrodes for removal of chemical and biological oxygen demand (COD and BOD) from grey water in different car washes of Ahvaz, Iran. Nowadays, one of the important dangerous that can contaminate water resources for drinking, agriculture and industrial is Car wash effluent [1,2]. In this study, initial COD and BOD concentration, pH of the solution, voltage power and reaction time was investigated. The concentration level of remaining COD and BOD in samples was measured, using DR/5000 UV-vis HACH spectrophotometer [3,4]. The effects of contact time, initial pH, electrical potential and voltage data on removal of COD and BOD were presented. Statistical analysis of the data was carried out using Special Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 16).

  15. Electrocoagulation process to Chemical and Biological Oxygen Demand treatment from carwash grey water in Ahvaz megacity, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Javad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we present the result of an electric coagulation process with iron and aluminum electrodes for removal of chemical and biological oxygen demand (COD and BOD from grey water in different car washes of Ahvaz, Iran. Nowadays, one of the important dangerous that can contaminate water resources for drinking, agriculture and industrial is Car wash effluent [1,2]. In this study, initial COD and BOD concentration, pH of the solution, voltage power and reaction time was investigated. The concentration level of remaining COD and BOD in samples was measured, using DR/5000 UV–vis HACH spectrophotometer [3,4]. The effects of contact time, initial pH, electrical potential and voltage data on removal of COD and BOD were presented. Statistical analysis of the data was carried out using Special Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 16.

  16. Energy and material flows of megacities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Christopher A; Stewart, Iain; Facchini, Angelo; Cersosimo, Igor; Mele, Renata; Chen, Bin; Uda, Mariko; Kansal, Arun; Chiu, Anthony; Kim, Kwi-Gon; Dubeux, Carolina; Lebre La Rovere, Emilio; Cunha, Bruno; Pincetl, Stephanie; Keirstead, James; Barles, Sabine; Pusaka, Semerdanta; Gunawan, Juniati; Adegbile, Michael; Nazariha, Mehrdad; Hoque, Shamsul; Marcotullio, Peter J; González Otharán, Florencia; Genena, Tarek; Ibrahim, Nadine; Farooqui, Rizwan; Cervantes, Gemma; Sahin, Ahmet Duran

    2015-05-12

    Understanding the drivers of energy and material flows of cities is important for addressing global environmental challenges. Accessing, sharing, and managing energy and material resources is particularly critical for megacities, which face enormous social stresses because of their sheer size and complexity. Here we quantify the energy and material flows through the world's 27 megacities with populations greater than 10 million people as of 2010. Collectively the resource flows through megacities are largely consistent with scaling laws established in the emerging science of cities. Correlations are established for electricity consumption, heating and industrial fuel use, ground transportation energy use, water consumption, waste generation, and steel production in terms of heating-degree-days, urban form, economic activity, and population growth. The results help identify megacities exhibiting high and low levels of consumption and those making efficient use of resources. The correlation between per capita electricity use and urbanized area per capita is shown to be a consequence of gross building floor area per capita, which is found to increase for lower-density cities. Many of the megacities are growing rapidly in population but are growing even faster in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and energy use. In the decade from 2001-2011, electricity use and ground transportation fuel use in megacities grew at approximately half the rate of GDP growth.

  17. Assessment of on-road transportation demand and CO2 emissions for determination of air quality impacts from the Megacity of São Paulo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Martinez, P. J.; Miranda, R. M.; Andrade, M. D. F.

    2017-12-01

    In this manuscript we assess the capability of using mobility surveys and a high-scale assignment and emission model to study climate change and air quality impacts related to on-road transportation in the Megacity of São Paulo (MSP). Initially, we estimate CO2 emissions of light and heavy vehicles (LVs and HVs) at a spatial scale of 500m and temporal scale of an hour, using transport demand modeling. The estimates are based on origin and destination trip pairs and the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These estimates, performed for the years 2007 and 2012, depend also on intermediate variables as dilution rates (D) and surface particulate-matter concentrations (PM). Secondly, we assess the changes in CO2 vehicle emissions from the MRSP over the period 2007-2012 (4% year-1). Consequently, CO2 emission inventories merge trip-based surveys, traffic assignments and road network database with air pollution monitoring data. Despite the difference of the methodologies, we use a road link bottom up vehicle activity based approach, the assessed emissions agree with the State's Emission Inventory. This paper shows that the CO2 emissions from LDVs and HDVs in the MSP in 2007 and 2012 were 8,477 and 10,075 tCeq day-1 (58% LVs and 42% HVs), respectively. CO2 emissions from vehicles show spatial patterns consistent with passenger and freight transport trips and road network assignments. Temporal profiles (diurnal, weekly and monthly) were estimated using traffic counts and congestion surrogates. The profiles were compared with average road-site (Western of MSP) and background (Jaraguá Peak) CO2 measurements available for 2014. On-road measurements showed one peak associated to the morning peak hour of vehicles (437±45 ppm) and another night peak (435±49 ppm) related to the low PBL (313 m) and D (329 m2 h-1). From on-road measurements, background values (414±2 ppm) were subtracted to estimate excess CO2 (12±8 ppm) directly attributed to vehicles. The inventory

  18. China’s bullet trains facilitate market integration and mitigate the cost of megacity growth

    OpenAIRE

    Zheng, Siqi; Kahn, Matthew E.

    2013-01-01

    Megacity growth in the developing world is fueled by a desire to access their large local labor markets. Growing megacities suffer from high levels of traffic congestion and pollution, which degrade local quality of life. Transportation technology that allows individuals to access the megacity without living within its boundaries offers potentially large social benefits, because individuals can enjoy the benefits of urban agglomeration while not paying megacity real estate rents and suffering...

  19. Urbanization, housing and environment: Megacities of Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusola Oladapo Makinde

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper takes a look at urbanization, housing and environment in Africa megacities; it enumerates the problems caused by the continued influx of migrant into cities, and state the government, private and public organization effort in solving these challenges. It found out that with proper management, the chilling prospect of a serious deterioration in quality of life could be averted. The report noted that continuing migration from rural to urban areas will expand the number of megacities, and it concedes that megacities are often plagued by environmental deterioration, inadequate housing, traffic congestion, social alienation slums, crime and homelessness. Etc. The paper, observed that megacities are important to a country's economic development, and also provide residents with a satisfying quality of life, if properly managed. The report looked for ways of solving the problems to a significant degree and observed that nearly in all cases, the gaps between demand and supply are management related, and recommends ways of improving the quality of citizen life by provision of adequate and quality housing, reduction in land costs, healthy environment, clean water and sanitation services, security within the city, employment opportunity, bolstering urban farming, and improving public transportation and make sure that the megacities are beneficial to the environment as well as to the national economy. The paper admits that the solutions are far from easy. It is difficult to predict what will happen if there are shortfalls in the financing of megacity growth and management.

  20. Atmospheric Pollution and Greenhouse Emissions over 14 Largest Megacities of the World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Singh, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    Megacities have more than 10 million people, some of them are located in developing/developed countries. We have considered the top 14 megacities of the world. Due to growing industries, urbanization, vehicular density, and energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions have increased, which has degraded air quality. In some countries, clean air act has improved the air quality. We have considered multiple satellites and have retrieved atmospheric pollution parameters (aerosol optical depth-AOD and angstrom exponent) and greenhouse gases to study their variability from the period 2002-2016. High AOD represents high pollution level, which are prominent during winter and spring for Manila, Tokyo, Beijing, Moscow, Mexico City, Mumbai, Seoul, Dhaka, Cairo, and Bangkok. During summer and fall, Delhi, Karachi, and Sao Paulo have high values. During spring season, some of the megacities show significant higher pollution levels (high AOD) associated with the dust storms; however, Moscow and Karachi show contrasting behaviors. The angstrom exponent parameter has high values in the spring and summer for Manila, Shanghai, Beijing, Moscow, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Seoul, and Cairo. Moscow shows a significant low value in April 2012. Delhi, Karachi, Mumbai, Dhaka, and Bangkok have high values in fall and winter. Dhaka shows significant low values in August 2003, June 2005, June 2008, July 2011, and June 2016. The total ozone column concentrations have high values during summer and spring, and low values during fall and winter. The methane concentrations are higher during fall and winter, and lower during spring and summer. An increasing trend of methane level is observed over all the megacities from 2002 until now. The increasing greenhouse gases in megacities have direct impact on human health and weather conditions. Some of the megacities suffer from dense haze, fog and smog, which impact the day-to-day lives of residents due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.

  1. Growing an emerging energy workforce: forecasting labour demand and gaining access to emerging energy skills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomsen, V.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the needs of emerging energies sector in terms of growing an emerging energy workforce, forecasting labour demands and gaining access to emerging energy skills. It will require industrial renewal and innovation and not just selling our resources. It will also require educating ourselves to utilise our own finished products. Conservation is a key element in a sustainable energy future. finally, a market for renewable energy has been established in Canada

  2. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot

    2010-01-01

    Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

  3. Oil demand continues to grow in the U.S. and worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tippee, B.; Beck, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Rising oil consumption is challenging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries production quota--but not the group's ability to meet demand. In the second half of 1995, the oil market will continue to need more oil from OPEC members than the group claims to be willing to produce with its quota at 24.52 million b/d. If the quota really limited supply, ingredients would be in place for a significant price hike. Growth in a non-OPEC production intensities temptations on OPEC members to cheat on quotas and has become a key factor in the market. OPEC producers have seen that if they don't meet incremental demand at the current price, other producers will. OPEC eventually will have to raise its quota or acknowledge that the artificial production limit lacks meaning. At present, the only real limit to supply is production capacity, which remains in excess relative to demand and which has demonstrated its ability to grow both within and outside of OPEC when prices rise. The paper discusses worldwide trends, pressures on OPEC, world crude prices, US prices, natural gas prices, US energy demand, natural gas use, gas supply, US demand for petroleum products, imports, and inventories

  4. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  5. The Growing Demand for Hospice and Palliative Medicine Physicians: Will the Supply Keep Up?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupu, Dale; Quigley, Leo; Mehfoud, Nicholas; Salsberg, Edward S

    2018-04-01

    The need for hospice and palliative care is growing rapidly as the population increases and ages and as both hospice and palliative care become more accepted. Hospice and palliative medicine (HPM) is a relatively new physician specialty, currently training 325 new fellows annually. Given the time needed to increase the supply of specialty-trained physicians, it is important to assess future needs to guide planning for future training capacity. We modeled the need for and supply of specialist HPM physicians through the year 2040 to determine whether training capacity should continue growing. To create a benchmark for need, we used a population-based approach to look at the current geographic distribution of the HPM physician supply. To model future supply, we calculated the annual change in current supply by adding newly trained physicians and subtracting physicians leaving the labor force. The current U.S. supply of HPM specialists is 13.35 per 100,000 adults 65 and older. This ratio varies greatly across the country. Using alternate assumptions for future supply and demand, we project that need in 2040 will range from 10,640 to almost 24,000 HPM specialist physicians. Supply will range from 8100 to 19,000. Current training capacity is insufficient to keep up with population growth and demand for services. HPM fellowships would need to grow from the current 325 graduates annually to between 500 and 600 per year by 2030 to assure sufficient physician workforce for hospice and palliative care services given current service provision patterns. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The development and work procedures to super speed network for the growing demands for the network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nosaki, Nobuhisa; Aoki, Kazuhisa

    2001-01-01

    Following the recently growing demands for the network, the modification of Local Area Network (LAN) and Wide Area Network (WAN) to super speed network have been reviewed in the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC). Though the modification of the LAN to super speed network is being developed this year in Heisei 13 fiscal year, it of the WAN was developed in Heisei 12 fiscal year. In spite of various issues, technical reviews and etc., there are a lot of benefits and merit for the super speed network of the WAN and though the modification of it and reduction of the running cost are contradictory to each other, both of those have been achieved in the JNC. This paper introduces the development and work procedures for the WAN. (author)

  7. How cells grow and divide: mathematical analysis confirms demand for the cell cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Hyun Woong; Choi, M Y

    2012-01-01

    Eukaryotes usually grow through cell growth and division. How cells grow and divide is essential to life because too small or too large cells cannot function well. In order for an organism to survive even under a condition where cell growth and division processes are independent of each other, cells must have an appropriate growth factor, growth rate and division rate. To determine them, we derive a time evolution equation for the size distribution of cells from the master equation describing changes in the cell size due to growth and in the total number of cells due to division. It is found that long-time behaviors of moments of the size distribution divide the parameter space, consisting of the growth factor and the ratio of the division rate to the growth rate, into infinitely many regions. Examining the properties of each region, we conclude that growth with a small growth factor may be disastrous; this demonstrates the demand for the cell cycle consisting of coordinated growth and division processes. (paper)

  8. Gas-export potential will grow until domestic economies hike local demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.; Stram, B.

    1993-01-01

    Prospects appear good for near-term growth of exportable natural-gas supplies for some member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). These conclusions are a result of Enron Corp.'s recent investigations in the C.I.S. and other former Soviet republics. They are based on data obtained in cooperation with Vinigaz, the research arm of the Russian state gas concern Gazprom, and from various other research and consulting groups. These studies indicate that gas-export potential will grow as local demand for gas shrinks in the C.I.S. (as the energy needs of the individual republics decline during the period of economic transition) and while the C.I.S.-area countries continue to require foreign currency to help fund redevelopment and reduce debt. This concluding of two articles reviews the economic outlook for outside investment in the oil, gas, and gas-liquids infrastructure and the role of natural-gas supply and price in the development of domestic and export markets

  9. Impact assessment of a maternal health project in a megacity, Nigeria: toward a future with more demand for maternal health services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuoka, Sadatoshi; Koga, Sumiko; Suzui, Emiko; Tsukada, Yoshiko; Ohashi, Kazutomo; Johnson, Taiwo

    2017-10-01

    To improve the quantity and quality of maternal health services in Lagos State, Nigeria having a maternal mortality ratio of 555 per 100 000 live births, a four-year project was implemented since February 2010. The major activity of the project was training for both the service supply and demand sides. This study aimed to examine the impact of the project on coverages and quality of the services in target areas, and guide statewide policies. The Cochran-Armitage test for trend was applied to understand trends in the service coverages during 2009-2013. The same test was performed to analyse trends in the proportions of perineal conditions (i.e. intact or tear) and to evaluate variations in midwives' snkill during 2011-2013. The paired t-test was used to analyse changes in midwives' knowledge. The project interventions contributed to a significant increase in the overall service coverages, including improvements in midwifery knowledge and possibly in their skills. However, the service coverage was still limited as of the termination of the project. To instal the interventions and maximise the effect of them state-wide, it is recommended to undertake five tasks: (i) establishment of public primary health centres offering 24-h maternal health services; (ii) redeployment and recruitment of public health personnel; (iii) expansion of midwifery trainings and continuous education by the local trainers; (iv) review of grass-roots level activities; and (v) scrutiny of barriers to maternal health services. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.; Daioglou, Vasileios; Braakhekke, M.C.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for

  11. How to Keep Teachers Healthy and Growing: The Influence of Job Demands and Resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, Arnoud; Yamkovenko, Bogdan; Van Amersfoort, Daniël

    2017-01-01

    Purpose – Education depends on high-quality teachers who are committed to professional development and do not get burned out. The purpose of this paper was to investigate how job demands and resources can affect the health and cognitive development of teachers using the Demand-Induced Strain

  12. How to Keep Teachers Healthy and Growing: The Influence of Job Demands and Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Arnoud T.; Yamkovenko, Bogdan; Van Amersfoort, Daniël

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Education depends on high-quality teachers who are committed to professional development and do not get burned out. The purpose of this paper was to investigate how job demands and resources can affect the health and cognitive development of teachers using the Demand-Induced Strain Compensation model. Design/methodology/approach: A…

  13. Examining demand response, renewable energy and efficiencies to meet growing electricity needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliot, N.; Eldridge, M.; Shipley, A.M.; Laitner, J.S.; Nadel, S.; Silverstein, A.; Hedman, B.; Sloan, M.

    2007-01-01

    While Texas has already taken steps to improve its renewable energy portfolio (RPS), and its energy efficiency improvement program (EEIP), the level of savings that utilities can achieve through the EEIP can be greatly increased. This report estimated the size of energy efficiency and renewable energy resources in Texas, and suggested a range of policy options that might be adopted to further extend EEIP. Current forecasts suggest that peak demand in Texas will increase by 2.3 per cent annually from 2007-2012, a level of growth which is threatening the state's ability to maintain grid reliability at reasonable cost. Almost 70 per cent of installed generating capacity is fuelled by natural gas in Texas. Recent polling has suggested that over 70 per cent of Texans are willing support increased spending on energy efficiency. Demand response measures that may be implemented in the state include incentive-based programs that pay users to reduce their electricity consumption during specific times and pricing programs, where customers are given a price signal and are expected to moderate their electricity usage. By 2023, the widespread availability of time-varying retail electric rates and complementary communications and control methods will permanently change the nature of electricity demand in the state. At present, the integrated utilities in Texas offer a variety of direct load control and time-of-use, curtailable, and interruptible rates. However, with the advent of retail competition now available as a result of the structural unbundling of investor-owned utilities, there is less demand response available in Texas. It was concluded that energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy resources can meet the increasing demand for electricity in Texas over the next 15 years. 4 figs

  14. U.S. oil and gas demand set to grow again in 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports that renewed economic growth in 1993 will increase total U.S. energy use, bringing a modest gain in demand for petroleum products and continued healthy growth in natural gas consumption. On the other side of the equation, production of crude and condensate in the U.S. will drop again in 1993. This year's drilling won't do much to reverse this dismal trend. The Journal projects the number of well completions to be virtually the same as last year, though operators say they may drill more exploration wells this year. The widening gap between domestic production and demand will mean another sizable increase in imports. U.S. refining capacity will slip this year because of the high cost of meeting environmental regulations. Reduced capacity, coupled with increased product demand, will raise refinery utilization rates to almost 90%. Outside the U.S., the worldwide recession is still keeping a lid on demand growth. And despite the continued production decline in the U.S. and the C.I.S. world crude supply will be more than adequate in 1993. Kuwait's return to prewar production levels, the prospect of Iraq's reentry into the market, and capacity expansion plans will keep downward pressure on prices throughout the year

  15. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dargay, Joyce M. [Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Gately, Dermot [Dept. of Economics, New York University, 19W. 4 St., New York, NY 10012 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

  16. Contraceptive implants: providing better choice to meet growing family planning demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobstein, Roy; Stanley, Harriet

    2013-03-01

    Contraceptive implants are extremely effective, long acting, and suitable for nearly all women-to delay, space, or limit pregnancies-and they are increasingly popular. Now, markedly reduced prices and innovative service delivery models using dedicated non-physician service providers offer a historic opportunity to help satisfy women's growing need for family planning.

  17. Managing the impact of growing low-acuity demand on ambulance services

    OpenAIRE

    KATHRYN JEAN EASTWOOD

    2018-01-01

    Increasing demand for emergency ambulances places a substantial burden on ambulance services. Many cases are low-acuity, having no urgent clinical need for paramedic treatment. Ambulance Victoria implemented a secondary telephone triage services to divert low-acuity cases away from emergency ambulances to more appropriate care. This research found this ‘Referral Service’ has had a substantial impact upon emergency operations, referring over 70% of the cases it managed away from emergency am...

  18. Maintenance of Access as Demand for Substance Use Disorder Treatment Grows

    OpenAIRE

    Frakt, Austin B.; Trafton, Jodie; Pizer, Steven D.

    2015-01-01

    Due to the Affordable Care Act and other recent laws and regulations, funding for substance use disorder (SUD) treatment is on the rise. In the 2000s, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) implemented several initiatives that increased funding for SUD treatment during a period of growth in demand for it. A key question is whether access to and intensity of treatment kept pace or declined. Using VA SUD treatment funding data and patient-level records to construct performance measures, we stu...

  19. Balancing natural gas policy : Fueling the demands of a growing economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.

    2003-01-01

    In March 2002 a request was made to the National Petroleum Council by the United States Secretary of Energy to examine the potential implications of new supplies, technologies, perceptions of risk on natural gas demand, supplies, and delivery through 2025. In addition, the Secretary was looking for insight on energy market dynamics and an outlook on the longer-term sustainability of natural gas supplies. Ideas on ways to improve the productivity and efficiency of North American natural gas markets while ensuring adequate and reliable supplies of energy for consumers were also requested. Two options were examined by the National Petroleum Council (NPC). The reactive path involves public policies which remain in conflict, while the balanced future involves aligned public policies. It was discovered that 75 per cent of long-term American gas needs will be met by traditional North American producing areas which will be unable to meet projected demand. Production growth is desirable in the Rockies and deepwater Gulf of Mexico, as well as non conventional production. After careful examination, it was determined that demand flexibility and efficiency must be improved, along with an increase in supply diversity. Infrastructure must be enhanced and sustained, and efficient markets must be promoted. All these measures would result in higher economic growth, higher employment, and stronger industrial activity. figs

  20. Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

    2015-12-01

    As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

  1. Maintenance of access as demand for substance use disorder treatment grows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frakt, Austin B; Trafton, Jodie; Pizer, Steven D

    2015-08-01

    Due to the Affordable Care Act and other recent laws and regulations, funding for substance use disorder (SUD) treatment is on the rise. In the 2000s, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) implemented several initiatives that increased funding for SUD treatment during a period of growth in demand for it. A key question is whether access to and intensity of treatment kept pace or declined. Using VA SUD treatment funding data and patient-level records to construct performance measures, we studied the relationship between funding and access during the VA expansion. Overall, we observed an increase in access to and intensity of VA SUD care associated with increased funding. The VA was able to increase funding for and expand the population to which it offered SUD treatment without diminishing internal access and intensity. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Challenges of breeding potato cultivars to grow in various environments and to meet different demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Kazuyuki; Asano, Kenji; Tamiya, Seiji; Nakao, Takashi; Mori, Motoyuki

    2015-01-01

    The potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is cultivated all year round in Japan by using four types of cropping: summer and winter croppings, and double cropping in spring and fall. In each cropping season, growth conditions such as temperature, day length, and growing period, differ drastically; thus, different cultivars adapted to each environment are required. Breeding stations are located in both summer cropping areas and double cropping areas, and cultivars suitable for each cropping system are developed. The required cultivars differ according to cropping type and according to use such as table use, food processing, and starch production. The qualities necessary for each purpose differ and are therefore evaluated accordingly. Improvements in pest and disease resistance and in yield abilities are important as common breeding targets for all purposes. To develop potato cultivars that meet different needs, breeders have continued efforts to improve these traits. In this review, we introduce our approaches to developing new potato cultivars. We also discuss problems predicted in the future and introduce our efforts on broadening genetic diversity. PMID:25931976

  3. The energy metabolism of megacities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Facchini, Angelo; Kennedy, Chris; Stewart, Iain; Mele, Renata

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy metabolism leads to a better management of energy use in megacities. • Insights on strategies to improve energy efficiency and reduce resource consumption. • We find a regionalization of energy flows and sectoral energy use. • Scaling law for energy Vs density suggests strategies for compact cities planning. • Supports development of models to reduce GHG emissions and increase resilience. - Abstract: Due to their sheer size and complexity, megacities are extreme examples in which both negative and positive aspects of urbanization co-exist and are amplified. Especially in emerging countries they are becoming the dominant paradigm of the future urbanization, representing a sustainability challenge both from the point of view of energy and resource consumption, and from the point of view of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this paper we compare the energy metabolism in 27 of the world’s megacities including details of mobile and stationary energy consumption patterns, fuels used, as well as end-use patterns and electricity generation mix. Our results show that per capita total energy consumption scales with urban population density according to a power law characterized by the universal −3/4 scaling, pointing out that compact cities are more energy efficient with respect to dispersed cities. By comparing energy sources and sectoral end use, also focusing on electricity use and generation source, we found a significant regionalization of energy metabolism, and we discuss the implication for resilience, infrastructure planning, GHG emissions, and policies for infrastructure decarbonization. The comparison of the energy metabolism can lead to a more appropriate management of energy use patterns and electricity generation mix in megacities, giving insights on strategies to improve urban energy efficiency and reducing environmental pressure of megacities.

  4. Analysis of water supply and demand in high mountain cities of Bolivia under growing population and changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinouchi, T.; Mendoza, J.; Asaoka, Y.; Fuchs, P.

    2017-12-01

    Water resources in La Paz and El Alto, high mountain capital cities of Bolivia, strongly depend on the surface and subsurface runoff from partially glacierized catchments located in the Cordillera Real, Andes. Due to growing population and changing climate, the balance between water supply from the source catchments and demand for drinking, agriculture, industry and hydropower has become precarious in recent years as evidenced by a serious drought during the 2015-2016 El Nino event. To predict the long-term availability of water resources under changing climate, we developed a semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model that considers various runoff pathways from partially glacierized high-altitude catchments. Two GCM projections (MRI-AGCM and INGV-ECHAM4) were used for the prediction with bias corrected by reanalysis data (ERA-INTERIM) and downscaled to target areas using data monitored at several weather stations. The model was applied to three catchments from which current water resources are supplied and eight additional catchments that will be potentially effective in compensating reduced runoff from the current water resource areas. For predicting the future water demand, a cohort-component method was used for the projection of size and composition of population change, considering natural and social change (birth, death and transfer). As a result, total population is expected to increase from 1.6 million in 2012 to 2.0 million in 2036. The water demand was predicted for given unit water consumption, non-revenue water rate (NWR), and sectorial percentage of water consumption for domestic, industrial and commercial purposes. The results of hydrological simulations and the analysis of water demand indicated that water supply and demand are barely balanced in recent years, while the total runoff from current water resource areas will continue to decrease and unprecedented water shortage is likely to occur since around 2020 toward the middle of 21st century even

  5. China's bullet trains facilitate market integration and mitigate the cost of megacity growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Siqi; Kahn, Matthew E

    2013-04-02

    Megacity growth in the developing world is fueled by a desire to access their large local labor markets. Growing megacities suffer from high levels of traffic congestion and pollution, which degrade local quality of life. Transportation technology that allows individuals to access the megacity without living within its boundaries offers potentially large social benefits, because individuals can enjoy the benefits of urban agglomeration while not paying megacity real estate rents and suffering from the city's social costs. This paper presents evidence supporting the claim that China's bullet trains are playing this role. The bullet train is regarded as one of the most significant technological breakthroughs in passenger transportation developed in the second half of the 20th century. Starting in 2007, China has introduced several new bullet trains that connect megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou with nearby cities. Through facilitating market integration, bullet trains will stimulate the development of second- and third-tier cities. By offering households and firms a larger menu of location alternatives, bullet trains help to protect the quality of life of the growing urban population. We document that this transport innovation is associated with rising real estate prices in the nearby secondary cities.

  6. The dispersion characteristics of air pollution from the world's megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cassiani

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Megacities are extreme examples of the continuously growing urbanization of the human population that pose (new challenges to the environment and human health at a local scale. However, because of their size megacities also have larger-scale effects, and more research is needed to quantify their regional- and global-scale impacts. We performed a study of the characteristics of pollution plumes dispersing from a group of 36 of the world's megacities using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART and focusing on black carbon (BC emissions during the years 2003–2005. BC was selected since it is representative of combustion-related emissions and has a significant role as a short-lived climate forcer. Based on the BC emissions two artificial tracers were modeled: a purely passive tracer and one subject to wet and dry deposition more closely resembling the behavior of a true aerosol. These tracers allowed us to investigate the role of deposition processes in determining the impact of megacities' pollutant plumes. The particles composing the plumes have been sampled in space and time. The time sampling allowed us to investigate the evolution of the plume from its release up to 48 days after emission and to generalize our results for any substance decaying with a timescale sufficiently shorter than the time window of 48 days. The physical characteristics of the time-averaged plume have been investigated, and this showed that, although local conditions are important, overall a city's latitude is the main factor influencing both the local and the regional-to-global dispersion of its pollution. We also repeated the calculations of some of the regional-pollution-potential metrics previously proposed by Lawrence et al. (2007, thus extending their results to a depositing scalar and retaining the evolution in time for all the plumes. Our results agreed well with their previous results despite being obtained using a totally different modeling framework. For the

  7. Automation, Autonomy & Megacities 2025: A Dark Preview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assante, Michael; Bochman, Andrew

    2017-03-01

    This paper extrapolates from present trends to describe very plausible – and actually quite likely – future crises playing out in multiple global cities. While predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, much of what occurs in the scenarios that follow is fully possible today and absent a significant course change, probable in the timeframe discussed. The authors want to caveat that we are not commenting on a specific organization or technology deployment. It is not hard to find tech evangelists touting that ubiquitous and highly interconnected digital technology will bring great advances in productivity and efficiency, as well as new capabilities we cannot foresee. This paper attempts to reveal what is possible when these technologies are applied to critical infrastructure applications en masse without adequate security in densely populated cities that by their nature are less resilient than other environments. Megacities need and will deploy these new technologies to keep up with insatiable demand for energy, communications, transportation and other services, but it is important to recognize that they are also made more vulnerable by following this path .

  8. Megacity analysis: a clustering approach to classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    overview. Retrieved from https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/fact-sheets/kabul- urban -water-supply- kuws USGS. (2009). Conceptual model of water...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9...is interested in these megacity networks and their implications for potential urban operations. We develop a methodology to group like megacities

  9. Demand Driven Acquisition of E-Books in a Small Online Academic Library: Growing Pains and Assessing Gains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longley, Dana H.

    2016-01-01

    How does a smaller, fully online academic library offer a wide and deep collection of academic level e-books to its distance learners in a sustainable and affordable way? The State University of New York (SUNY) Empire State College Online Library, with a staff of four, has used demand-driven e-book acquisitions since September 2013. Despite…

  10. Crop production and resource use to meet the growing demand for food, feed and fuel: opportunities and constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiertz, J.H.J.; Ewert, F.

    2009-01-01

    Global food and feed demands have been projected to double in the 21st century, which will further increase the pressure on the use of land, water and nutrients. At the same time, the political decisions to support renewable energy sources are accelerating the use of biomass, including grain, sugar,

  11. Product longevity and shared ownership: Sustainable routes to satisfying the world’s growing demand for goods 

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G. Rogers

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available It has been estimated that by 2030 the number of people who are wealthy enough to be significant consumers will have tripled. This will have a dramatic impact on the demands for primary materials and energy. It has been estimated that with improvements in design and manufacturing it is possible to maintain the current level of production using 70% of the current primary material consumed. Even with these improvements on the production side, there will still be a doubling of primary material requirements by the end of the century, with accompanying rises in industrial energy demand, if the rise in demand for goods and services is to be met. It is therefore clear that the consumption of products must also be explored. Product longevity and using goods more intensively are two strategies which could reduce the demand for new goods. If products last longer, then manufacturing output can concentrate on emerging markets rather than the market for replacement goods. There are many goods which are infrequently used, these seldom wear out. The total demand for such could be drastically reduced if they were shared with other people. Sharing of goods has traditionally been conducted between friends or by hiring equipment, but modern communication systems and social media could increase the opportunities to share goods. Sharing goods also increases access to a range of goods for those on low incomes. From a series of workshops it has been found that the principal challenges are sociological rather than technological. This paper contains a discussion of these challenges and explores possible futures where these two strategies have been adopted. In addition, the barriers and opportunities that these strategies offer for consumers and businesses are identified, and areas where government policy could be instigated to bring about change are highlighted.

  12. Specific net present value: an improved method for assessing modularisation costs in water services with growing demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, M

    2009-05-01

    A specific net present value (SNPV) approach is introduced as a criterion in economic engineering decisions. The SNPV expresses average costs, including the growth rate and plant utilisation over the planning horizon, factors that are excluded from a standard net present value approach. The use of SNPV favours alternatives that are cheaper per service unit and are therefore closer to the costs that a user has to cover. It also shows that demand growth has a similar influence on average costs as an economy of scale. In a high growth scenario, solutions providing less idle capacity can have higher present value costs and still be economically favourable. The SNPV approach is applied in two examples to calculate acceptable additional costs for modularisation and comparable costs for on-site treatment (OST) as an extreme form of modularisation. The calculations show that: (i) the SNPV approach is suitable for quantifying the comparable costs of an OST system in a different scenario; (ii) small systems with projected high demand growth rates and high real interest rates are the most probable entry market for OST water treatment systems; (iii) operating expenses are currently the main economic weakness of membrane-based wastewater OST systems; and (iv) when high growth in demand is expected, up to 100% can be additionally invested in modularisation and staging the expansion of a treatment plant.

  13. Developments on the European energy market. Part 1. Natural gas supply. Extra import covers growing natural gas demand in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    2000-01-01

    This first part of a series on developments in the European gas market features the growth in gas supply. 35% of the gas demand must be covered from sources outside Europe. For the future additional imports are required from countries such as the Russian Federation, Algeria and Nigeria. Over the next few years the artificial link between ga and oil prices will disappear, bringing the gas price to a structurally lower level. It will be of crucial importance that gas suppliers will not be able to form cartels to keep prices high. All competing projects will curb price increases on the European market, but will definitely result in more freedom of choice for European natural gas consumers

  14. Growing electricity demand and role of nuclear power in Asia. WANO Tokyo Center summarizes Asian Nuclear Power Atlas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Present status of the activities of World Association of Nuclear Operations (WANO) in Asia was briefly summarized here. The WANO Tokyo Center is the hub for WANO's activities having a member ship of 17 operators from six countries and territories. The center conducts a variety of activities designed to enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Asia. Asian economy is expanding now in spite of the stagnation of recent world economy. The economic development has been paralleled by population growth in Asia and the 21st century may become the 'age of Asia'. Despite this remarkable economic growth, some parts of Asia are still at the developing stage in terms of electric power infrastructure. Demand for electric power is expected to increase dramatically from now on, making the development of electric power plants an urgent priority. Nuclear power has thus become the focus of increasing interest in Asia. At present, 17 operators in six countries of Asia operate 79 units at 32 power stations with a total capacity of approximately 60 GW, or equivalent to around 17% of the total capacity of all WANO members. China's massive NPP construction program and Indonesia's nuclear power program are expected to boost total capacity in future. (M.N.)

  15. Quantifying changes in water use and groundwater availability in a megacity using novel integrated systems modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyndman, D. W.; Xu, T.; Deines, J. M.; Cao, G.; Nagelkirk, R.; Viña, A.; McConnell, W.; Basso, B.; Kendall, A. D.; Li, S.; Luo, L.; Lupi, F.; Ma, D.; Winkler, J. A.; Yang, W.; Zheng, C.; Liu, J.

    2017-08-01

    Water sustainability in megacities is a growing challenge with far-reaching effects. Addressing sustainability requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach able to capture interactions among hydrology, population growth, and socioeconomic factors and to reflect changes due to climate variability and land use. We developed a new systems modeling framework to quantify the influence of changes in land use, crop growth, and urbanization on groundwater storage for Beijing, China. This framework was then used to understand and quantify causes of observed decreases in groundwater storage from 1993 to 2006, revealing that the expansion of Beijing's urban areas at the expense of croplands has enhanced recharge while reducing water lost to evapotranspiration, partially ameliorating groundwater declines. The results demonstrate the efficacy of such a systems approach to quantify the impacts of changes in climate and land use on water sustainability for megacities, while providing a quantitative framework to improve mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help address future water challenges.

  16. Analysis of urban land use in the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh: Roof-top detection in the context of assessing solar photovoltaic potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaegermeyr, J.; Kabir, H.; Endlicher, W.

    2009-12-01

    The megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh is considered to be one of the world’s fastest growing urban centers. With nearly 14 million people Dhaka currently faces tremendous power crisis. The available power supply of Dhaka Megacity is currently 1000-1200 MW against the maximum demand of nearly 2000 MW. The objective of this study is to classify land cover of Dhaka to locate roof-top areas which are adequate for solar photovoltaic applications. Usually this task is performed with additional building-heights data. With lack of that, we present an object-based classification approach which is based on high resolution Quickbird data only. Extensive formal buildings in Dhaka mostly have flat roof-tops made from concrete which are well suited for PV applications. The classification is focused to detect these ‘Bright Roof-Tops’ to assess a lower limit for potential PV areas. With that conservative approach bright roof-top areas of 10.554 km2 out of the city’s 134.282 km2 could be found. The overall classification accuracy is 0.918, the producer’s accuracy of ‘Bright Roof-Tops’ is 0.833. Preliminary result of the PhD work of Humayun Kabir indicates that the application of only 75 Wp stand-alone solar modules on these available bright roof-tops can generate nearly 1,000 MW of electricity. The application of solar modules with high capacity (i.e., >200 Wp) preferably through grid-connected PV systems can substantially meet-up the city’s power demand, although several techno-economic and socio-political factors are certainly involved.

  17. Megacity megaquakes—Two near misses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Ross S.; Toda, Shinji

    2013-01-01

    Two recent earthquakes left their mark on Santiago de Chile and Tokyo, well beyond the rupture zones, raising questions about the future vulnerability of these and other cities that lie in seismically active regions. Though spared strong shaking, the megacities nevertheless lit up in small quakes, perhaps signaling an abrupt change in the condition for failure on the faults beneath the cities. To detect such changes in earthquake rate requires good seismic monitoring networks; to respond to such hazard increases with civic preparations requires good government.

  18. Multi-Scale Enviro-HIRLAM Forecasting of Weather and Atmospheric Composition over China and its Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Nuterman, Roman; Yang, Xiaohua; Baklanov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Air pollution is a serious problem in different regions of China and its continuously growing megacities. Information on air quality, and especially, in urbanized areas is important for decision making, emergency response and population. In particular, the metropolitan areas of Shanghai, Beijing, and Pearl River Delta are well known as main regions having serious air pollution problems. The on-line integrated meteorology-chemistry-aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) model adapted for China and selected megacities is applied for forecasting of weather and atmospheric composition (with focus on aerosols). The model system is running in downscaling chain from regional to urban scales at subsequent horizontal resolutions of 15-5-2.5 km. The model setup includes also the urban Building Effects Parameterization module, describing different types of urban districts (industrial commercial, city center, high density and residential) with its own morphological and aerodynamical characteristics. The effects of urbanization are important for atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition, and chemical transformations, in addition to better quality emission inventories for China and selected urban areas. The Enviro-HIRLAM system provides meteorology and air quality forecasts at regional-subregional-urban scales (China - East China - selected megacities). In particular, such forecasting is important for metropolitan areas, where formation and development of meteorological and chemical/aerosol patterns are especially complex. It also provides information for evaluation impact on selected megacities of China as well as for investigation relationship between air pollution and meteorology.

  19. MOBILITY, ENVIRONMENT AND SAFETY IN MEGACITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinesh MOHAN

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on issues concerning mobility, pollution and safety in megacities of less motorised countries (LMCs using Delhi (India as an example. Issues discussed are: Urban transport and land use patterns, planning, systems management and infrastructure development, fuel quality and alternate fuels, control of car ownership, in-use maintenance and inspection, fuel efficiency and technologies, pedestrian and bicycle environments and road safety. The patterns of traffic and management issues in LMCs are very complex and some of their problems have not been faced by the richer countries in the past. In LMC cities' non-motorised modes of transport and some form of public transport/para-transit already constitute a significant proportion of all trips. It will be difficult to increase this share unless these modes are made much more convenient and safer. Unless people actually perceive that they are not inconvenienced or exposed to greater risks as bicyclists, pedestrians and bus commuters it will be difficult to reduce private vehicle use. Buses and non-motorised modes of transport will remain the backbone of mobility in LMC mega-cities. To control pollution both bus use and non-motorised forms of transport have to be given importance without increasing the rate of road accidents. These issues have to be considered in an overall context where safety and environmental research efforts are not conducted in complete isolation.

  20. Trends in urbanization and patterns of land use in the Asian mega-cities Jakarta, Bangkok, and Metro Manila

    OpenAIRE

    Murakami, Akinobu; Zain, Alinda Medrial; Takeuchi, Kazuhiko; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Yokota, Shigehiro

    2005-01-01

    Asian mega-cities have experienced rapid population growth and continue to grow. Urbanization in those areas is proceeding differently from the patterns of city growth experienced in Western countries. Understanding the characteristics of Asian urbanization will be indispensable for the establishment of a local landscape planning system. In this study, we used the Clark linear exponential model and the Newling quadratic exponential model to compare the spatial distribution of population densi...

  1. Overview of the 2006 MILAGRO Campaign in Mexico City: Transport and Transformation of Emissions from a Megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, L.; MILAGRO Science Team

    2009-04-01

    Megacities (metropolitan areas with population over 10 million) and large urban centers present a major challenge for the global environment. Population growth, increasing motorization and industrialization have resulted in a higher demand for energy, greater use of fossil fuels, and more emission of pollutants into the atmosphere. As a result, air pollution has become not only one of the central environmental problems of the century, but also presents serious consequences to human health and ecosystems and economic costs to society. MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) is the first international effort to study the impact of air pollutants generated and exported by megacity. The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) - one of the largest megacities in the world - was selected as the initial case study for MILAGRO. The measurement phase consisted of a month-long series of carefully coordinated observations of the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere in and near Mexico City during March 2006, using a wide range of instruments at ground sites, on aircraft and satellites, complemented by meteorological forecasting and numerical simulations. Together, these research observations have provided the most comprehensive characterization of Mexico City's urban and regional air pollution that will take years to analyze and evaluate fully. Initial analysis of the data is focused on understanding meteorology, emissions, urban and regional photochemistry, aerosol evolution and radiative effects - spanning the urban to regional scale transition. Many interesting aspects of atmospheric chemistry in and near the MCMA are emerging and have already added significantly to our understanding of the chemical and physical properties of the city's reactive atmosphere and the regional impacts. The information can be useful for decision-makers in Mexico in developing air quality management strategies as well as provide insights to air pollution problems in

  2. Comparative assessment of circular economy development in China's four megacities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Bin; Geng, Yong; Ren, Jingzheng

    2017-01-01

    Resources scarcity and environmental pollution in China negatively influence the country's sustainable development. Circular Economy (CE), which established on the basis of “3R principals”, was adopted by the Chinese authorities as a national development strategy to reduce resource consumption...... and mitigate environmental pollution. After more than ten years’ implementation of CE strategy, it is of vital importance to investigate the progresses and current status of CE development in China, especially in those China's megacities from both spatial and temporal perspectives, so as to identify...... the barriers of local CE development in megacities. To achieve such an objective, this study assesses the CE development in China's four megacities during the last ten years by using one unified indicator system. Results indicate that significant disparities exist among China's four megacities regarding both...

  3. Bioindication of atmospheric trace metals - With special references to megacities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markert, Bernd; Wuenschmann, Simone; Fraenzle, Stefan; Graciana Figueiredo, Ana Maria; Ribeiro, Andreza P.; Wang Meie

    2011-01-01

    After considering the particular problems of atmospheric pollution in megacities, i.e. agglomerations larger than 5 mio. inhabitants, with urbanization of World's population going on steadily, possibilities of active biomonitoring by means of green plants are discussed. Based on specific definitions of active and passive bioindication the chances of monitoring heavy metals in Sao Paulo megacity were demonstrated (first results published before). This is to show that there is need for increased use of bioindication to tackle the particular problems of megacities concerning environmental 'health', the data to be processed according to the Multi-Markered-Bioindication-Concept (MMBC). Comparison to other work shows this approach to be reasonable. - Highlights: → Chemical Pollution. → Bioindication. → Multi-Markered-Bioindication-Concept (MMBC). → Mega cities. - Bioindication is a relevant technique for observing the atmospheric deposition of chemical elements of the environment in megacities.

  4. Application of Satellite Remote Sensing to Identify Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes Related to Water and Health Conditions in Emerging Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.

    2014-12-01

    By 2050, more than 70% of the world's population is expected to be living in a city. In many of the urbanizing regions in Asia and Africa, most new development is taking place without adequate urban or regional planning, and a majority population is crowded into densely populated unplanned settlements, also known as slums. During the same period, precipitation and temperature patterns are likely to see significant changes in many of these regions while coastal megacities will have to accommodate sea-level rise in their ecosystems. The rapid increase in population is usually observed in fringes of the urban sprawl without adequate water or sanitation facilities or access to other municipal amenities (such as utilities, healthcare, and education). Collectively, these issues make the ever increasing slum dwellers in emerging megacities significantly vulnerable to a combination of climatic and anthropogenic threats. However, how the growth of unplanned urban and peri-urban sprawl and simultaneous change in climatic patterns have impacted public health in the emerging megacities remain largely unexplored due to lack of readily available and usable data. We employ a number of Remote Sensing products (GRACE, LANDSAT, MODIS) to bridge above knowledge gaps and to identify relevant hydrologic and anthropogenic changes in emerging megacities that are most vulnerable due to the climate-water-health nexus. We explore one of the largest and the fastest growing megacities in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh - on identifying and investigating the changes in the water environment and growth of slum areas, and impact on water services and health outcomes. The hydroclimatology of South Asia is highly seasonal and the asymmetric availability of water affects vast areas of Bangladesh differently in space and time, exposing the population of Dhaka region to both droughts and floods and periodic spring-fall outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera and rotavirus. This research

  5. Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, H.; Unger, N.

    2015-10-01

    We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

  6. A University-Industry Collaborative Response to the Growing Global Demand for Student Talent: Using Interpretive Phenomenology to Discover Life-World Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vauterin, Johanna Julia; Linnanen, Lassi; Michelsen, Karl-Erik

    2013-01-01

    The supply of student talent is now taking on an increasingly global dimension and this has extended the breadth of university-industry interaction. Set in the context of a rapidly growing international student market, knowledge transfer between academia and business through global student talent supply is an emerging practice. This paper…

  7. Grow, Baby, Grow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maybe you quit smoking during your pregnancy. Or maybe you struggled and weren’t able to stay quit. Now that your baby is here, trying to stay away from smoking is still important. That’s because the chemicals in smoke can make it harder for your baby to grow like he or she should.

  8. How do emission patterns in megacities affect regional air pollution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil, A.; Richter, C.; Schroeder, S.; Schultz, M. G.

    2010-12-01

    Megacities around the world show distinctly different emission patterns in terms of absolute amounts and emission ratios of individual chemical compounds due to varying socio-economic developments and technological standards. The emission patterns influence the chemical reactivity of the urban pollution plume, and hence determine air quality in and around megacity areas. In this study, which is part of the European project CITYZEN (megaCITY - Zoom for the ENvironment), the effects of emission changes in four selected megacity areas on air pollution were investigated: BeNeLux (BNL), Istanbul (IST), Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Sao Paulo (SAP). The study aims at answering the question: how would air pollution in megacity X change if it had the same urban emissions per capita as megacity Y? Model simulations with the global chemistry climate model ECHAM5-MOZ were carried out for the year 2001 using a resolution of about 2 degrees in the horizontal and of 31 levels (surface to 10 hPa) in the vertical. The model was driven by meteorological input data from the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis. Emissions were taken from the gridded global ACCMIP emission inventory recently established for use in chemistry-climate simulations in connection to the IPCC-AR5 assessments (Lamarque et al. 2010). We carried out sensitivity simulations where emission patterns from each of the megacity areas were replaced by those from all others. This was done on the basis of the per capita emissions for each species and sector averaged over the respective region. Total per capita CO and NMVOC emissions are highest in PRD and lowest in SAP while total per capita NOx emissions are highest in BNL and lowest in SAP. There are strong differences in the relative contribution of the urban sectors to total emissions of individual compounds. As a result, each of the four megacity areas exhibits a very characteristic NMVOC speciation profile which determines the NMVOC-related photochemical ozone (O_3

  9. Megacity precipitationsheds reveal tele-connected water security challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Gordon, Line J.

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization is a global process that has taken billions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated urban centers, adding pressure to existing water resources. Many cities are specifically reliant on renewable freshwater regularly refilled by precipitation, rather than fossil groundwater or desalination. A precipitationshed can be considered the “watershed of the sky” and identifies the origin of precipitation falling in a given region. In this paper, we use this concept to determine the sources of precipitation that supply renewable water in the watersheds of the largest cities of the world. We quantify the sources of precipitation for 29 megacities and analyze their differences between dry and wet years. Our results reveal that 19 of 29 megacities depend for more than a third of their water supply on evaporation from land. We also show that for many of the megacities, the terrestrial dependence is higher in dry years. This high dependence on terrestrial evaporation for their precipitation exposes these cities to potential land-use change that could reduce the evaporation that generates precipitation. Combining indicators of water stress, moisture recycling exposure, economic capacity, vegetation-regulated evaporation, land-use change, and dry-season moisture recycling sensitivity reveals four highly vulnerable megacities (Karachi, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing). A further six megacities were found to have medium vulnerability with regard to their water supply. We conclude that understanding how upwind landscapes affect downwind municipal water resources could be a key component for understanding the complexity of urban water security. PMID:29534109

  10. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  11. Satellite observations of air quality of megacities in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, N.; Valks, P.; Smedt, I. D.; Loyola, D.; Roozendael, M. V.; Zhou, B.; Zimmer, W.

    2012-04-01

    In the last three decades, air pollution has become a major environmental issue in metropolitan areas of China as a consequence of fast industrialization and urbanization, and the rapid increase of the vehicle ownership. Now in China there are 3 megacities (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) in existence. A recent study of Asian megacities showed that they cover less than 2% of the land area, hold more than 30% of the population and produce about 10% of the anthropogenic gas and aerosol emissions. Therefore, it is important to qualify and understand current air pollution distribution and development in and around the megacities of China. Satellite observations provide unique insight into the regional air quality around megacities and air pollution transport from surrounding areas. In this work, we present an investigation of air quality over Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou combining satellite and ground-based measurements. Aerosol optical thickness (AOT), precursors of ozone (notably NO2 and CH2O), and SO2 are observed from space. The operational GOME-2 trace gases products developed at German Aerospace Center and MODIS AOT products will be used. Moreover, near surface concentrations of particular matter (PM), NO2 and SO2 in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are investigated. The effect of air pollution transport from neighboring areas to megacities will be researched using satellite measurements. Initial comparison between satellite and ground-based measurements of air pollutants in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou will be shown. We will present the relationship between AOT and PM concentrations in megacities. The use of AOT, tropospheric NO2 and CH2O columns for air quality applications will also be shown.

  12. The role of utilities in developing low carbon, electric megacities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, Chris; Stewart, Iain D.; Facchini, Angelo; Mele, Renata

    2017-01-01

    Development of electric cities, with low carbon power supply, is a key strategy for reducing global CO2 emissions. We analyze the role of electric utilities as important actors to catalyze the transition to electric cites, drawing upon data for the world's 27 megacities. Progress towards the ideal electric city is most advanced for Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires for low carbon electricity, while Indian megacities have relatively high use of carbon-intensive electricity as a percentage of total energy use. There is wide variety in the structure of markets for electricity provision in megacities, with a dominant, public utility being the most common model. We review literature on electricity sector business models and broadly propose future models dependent on the predominance of locally dispersed generation and the nature of the ownership of the electric grid within the city. Where a high proportion of electricity can be provided by locally distributed supply within a city, the role of utilities could predominantly become that of enabler of exchange with the grid, but new pricing structures are required. A further challenge for utilities in enabling the electric city is to provide a higher level of resilience to events that disrupt power supply. - Highlights: • Amongst 27 megacities, Paris, Rio, Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires are most progressed low carbon electric cities. • Indian megacities have relatively high use of electricity as a percentage of total energy use. • Wide variety in electricity market structure in megacities; dominant, public utility the most common model. • Utilities could become enablers of exchange with the grid, but new pricing models required.

  13. Bioethanol: the new source for growing CO{sub 2} demand?; Bioetanol: a nova fonte para a demanda crescente por CO{sub 2}?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martynowicz, Emile T.M.J. [Norit Haffmans, Venlo (Netherlands); Mekss, Varidots Dainis Thorvalds [Norit do Brasil Ltda., Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-11-01

    In recent years, while customers demand a more sustainable greener CO{sub 2} source, the worldwide demand for food-grade CO{sub 2} is steadily increasing. In Brazil, a large bio-ethanol producer, the CO{sub 2} from the bio-ethanol production is an alternative. The research focused on the activated carbon filter in a CO{sub 2} recovery plant in respect to its removal efficiency for sulfurous compounds, such as H{sub 2}S and COS. Five different types of activated carbons were investigated both in pilot scale tests as well as in full scale tests. The different adsorption behavior in respect to COS for the activated carbon was attributed to the variance in mineral trace element composition of the activated carbon. Finally, an activated carbon was selected, that could remove H{sub 2}S, DMS and COS concentrations in the low ppm range to levels of less than 20 ppbw, in even more than 50 thermal adsorption/desorption cycles. This activated carbon was tested in a full scale plant and proved to be very suitable for the process conditions encountered in a bioethanol plant. (author)

  14. MEGAPOLI: concept and first results of multi-scale modelling of megacity impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A. A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S.

    2009-09-01

    The European FP7 project MEGAPOLI: ‘Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation' (http://megapoli.info), started in October 2008, brings together 27 leading European research groups from 11 countries, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from countries outside Europe to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The main MEGAPOLI objectives are: 1. to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution hot-spots on local, regional and global air quality, 2. to quantify feedbacks among megacity air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change, 3. to develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities. In order to achieve these objectives the following tasks are realizing: • Develop and evaluate integrated methods to improve megacity emission data, • Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the megacity street level, continuing to the city, regional and global scales, • Assess regional and global air quality impacts of megacity plumes, • Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity plumes, • Assess global megacity pollutant forcing on climate, • Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity air quality, • Develop integrated tools for prediction of megacity air quality, • Evaluate these integrated tools and use them in case studies, • Develop a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity development on human health and climate change, • Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions. We follow a pyramid strategy of undertaking detailed measurements in one European

  15. Sustainable Urban Transport in the Developing World : Beyond Megacities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pojani, D.; Stead, D.

    2015-01-01

    Megacities have frequently received a disproportionate amount of attention over other sizes of cities in recent discourse on urban sustainability. In this article, the authors argue that a focus on smaller and medium-sized cities is crucial to achieving substantial progress towards more sustainable

  16. Mental disorders in megacities: findings from the Sao Paulo megacity mental health survey, Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Helena Andrade

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: World population growth is projected to be concentrated in megacities, with increases in social inequality and urbanization-associated stress. São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA provides a forewarning of the burden of mental disorders in urban settings in developing world. The aim of this study is to estimate prevalence, severity, and treatment of recently active DSM-IV mental disorders. We examined socio-demographic correlates, aspects of urban living such as internal migration, exposure to violence, and neighborhood-level social deprivation with 12-month mental disorders. METHODS AND RESULTS: A representative cross-sectional household sample of 5,037 adults was interviewed face-to-face using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI, to generate diagnoses of DSM-IV mental disorders within 12 months of interview, disorder severity, and treatment. Administrative data on neighborhood social deprivation were gathered. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate individual and contextual correlates of disorders, severity, and treatment. Around thirty percent of respondents reported a 12-month disorder, with an even distribution across severity levels. Anxiety disorders were the most common disorders (affecting 19.9%, followed by mood (11%, impulse-control (4.3%, and substance use (3.6% disorders. Exposure to crime was associated with all four types of disorder. Migrants had low prevalence of all four types compared to stable residents. High urbanicity was associated with impulse-control disorders and high social deprivation with substance use disorders. Vulnerable subgroups were observed: women and migrant men living in most deprived areas. Only one-third of serious cases had received treatment in the previous year. DISCUSSION: Adults living in São Paulo megacity had prevalence of mental disorders at greater levels than similar surveys conducted in other areas of the world. Integration of mental health promotion

  17. Mental Disorders in Megacities: Findings from the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Laura Helena; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Andreoni, Solange; Silveira, Camila Magalhães; Alexandrino-Silva, Clovis; Siu, Erica Rosanna; Nishimura, Raphael; Anthony, James C.; Gattaz, Wagner Farid; Kessler, Ronald C.; Viana, Maria Carmen

    2012-01-01

    Background World population growth is projected to be concentrated in megacities, with increases in social inequality and urbanization-associated stress. São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) provides a forewarning of the burden of mental disorders in urban settings in developing world. The aim of this study is to estimate prevalence, severity, and treatment of recently active DSM-IV mental disorders. We examined socio-demographic correlates, aspects of urban living such as internal migration, exposure to violence, and neighborhood-level social deprivation with 12-month mental disorders. Methods and Results A representative cross-sectional household sample of 5,037 adults was interviewed face-to-face using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), to generate diagnoses of DSM-IV mental disorders within 12 months of interview, disorder severity, and treatment. Administrative data on neighborhood social deprivation were gathered. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate individual and contextual correlates of disorders, severity, and treatment. Around thirty percent of respondents reported a 12-month disorder, with an even distribution across severity levels. Anxiety disorders were the most common disorders (affecting 19.9%), followed by mood (11%), impulse-control (4.3%), and substance use (3.6%) disorders. Exposure to crime was associated with all four types of disorder. Migrants had low prevalence of all four types compared to stable residents. High urbanicity was associated with impulse-control disorders and high social deprivation with substance use disorders. Vulnerable subgroups were observed: women and migrant men living in most deprived areas. Only one-third of serious cases had received treatment in the previous year. Discussion Adults living in São Paulo megacity had prevalence of mental disorders at greater levels than similar surveys conducted in other areas of the world. Integration of mental health promotion and care into the

  18. Demand for Neste's City products grows strongly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Finland's oil, chemicals, and gas company, Neste Corporation, is well on the road to better financial performance after a very difficult year in 1992. Among the factors contributing to this optimism are Neste's pioneering low environmental impact traffic fuels. Neste Corporation's net sales in 1993 rose 9.9 % on 1992 figures to USD 11,011 million. Investments totalled USD 681 million. Profitability also improved during 1993, and the operating margin rose by 57 %, despite the recession affecting the Finnish economy and the instability of the international market. The operational loss for the year before extraordinary items, reserves, and taxes was USD 265 million, one-third less than in 1992. Neste's strategy has been to achieve a strong position in the Baltic Rim region by becoming the quality and cost leader in oil refining, and by expanding Neste's position in its key markets. A total of 3.3 million tonnes of petroleum products were exported from Finland in 1993. Neste's most important export markets were Sweden, Germany, Poland, the Baltic countries, and the St. Petersburg region. Some 20 % of exports went to customers outside Europe. In addition to Finland, Neste has concertedly developed its service station network in Poland and the Baltic countries

  19. URBAN DETECTION, DELIMITATION AND MORPHOLOGY: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SELECTIVE "MEGACITIES"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Alhaddad

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the last 50 years, the world has faced an impressive growth of urban population. The walled city, close to the outside, an "island"for economic activities and population density within the rural land, has led to the spread of urban life and urban networks in almost all the territory. There was, as said Margalef (1999, "a topological inversion of the landscape". The "urban" has gone from being an island in the ocean of rural land vastness, to represent the totally of the space in which are inserted natural and rural "systems". New phenomena such as the fall of the fordist model of production, the spread of urbanization known as urban sprawl, and the change of scale of the metropolis, covering increasingly large regions, called "megalopolis" (Gottmann, 1961, have characterized the century. However there are no rigorous databases capable of measuring and evaluating the phenomenon of megacities and in general the process of urbanization in the contemporary world. The aim of this paper is to detect, identify and analyze the morphology of the megacities through remote sensing instruments as well as various indicators of landscape. To understand the structure of these heterogeneous landscapes called megacities, land consumption and spatial complexity needs to be quantified accurately. Remote sensing might be helpful in evaluating how the different land covers shape urban megaregions. The morphological landscape analysis allows establishing the analogies and the differences between patterns of cities and studying the symmetry, growth direction, linearity, complexity and compactness of the urban form. The main objective of this paper is to develop a new methodology to detect urbanized land of some megacities around the world (Tokyo, Mexico, Chicago, New York, London, Moscow, Sao Paulo and Shanghai using Landsat 7 images.

  20. Environmental Impact of Megacities - Results from CityZen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauss, M.

    2012-04-01

    Megacities have increasingly important impacts on air quality and climate change on different spatial scales, owing to their high population densities and concentrated emission sources. The EU FP7 project CityZen (Megacity - Zoom for the Environment) ended in 2011 and was, together with its sister project MEGAPOLI, part of a major research effort within FP7 on megacities in Europe and worldwide. The project mainly focused on air pollution trends in large cities and emission hotspots, climate-chemistry couplings, future projections, and emission mitigation options. Both observational and modeling tools have been extensively used. This paper reviews some of the main results from CityZen regarding present air pollution in and around megacities, future scenarios and mitigation options to reduce air pollution and/or climate change, and the main policy messages from the project. The different observed trends over European and Asian hotspots during the last 10 to 15 years are shown. Results of source attribution of pollutants, which have been measured and calculated in and around the different selected hot spots in CityZen will be discussed. Another important question to be addressed is the extent to which climate change will affect air quality and the effectiveness of air quality legislation. Although projected emission reductions are a major determinate influencing the predictions of future air pollution, model results suggest that climate change has to be taken into account when devising future air quality legislation. This paper will also summarize some important policy messages in terms of ozone, particles and the observational needs that have been put forward as conclusions from the project.

  1. Alternative Governance Structures in Megacities: Threats or Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    territories, leaving inhabitants disenfranchised. These gaps are then filled by social entrepreneurs , often ethnic or re- ligious-based civil society...social entrepreneurs , often ethnic or re- ligious-based civil society groups—or even organized crime syndicates—who effectively identify niche needs in...be applied to provide a picture of megacities of increasing importance to U.S. defense planning, including Transparency Inter- national’s Corruption

  2. Paradox of Migration in Kolkata: A Megacity in GBM Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, S.; Hazra, S.; Ghosh, T.

    2015-12-01

    Contrary to other coastal cities (Mumbai, Chennai, Bhubaneswar etc.) in India, Kolkata, the largest city of India until 1990, has been showing a persistent trend of out-migration over the last decade. The situation is more paradoxical when compared to Dhaka in Bangladesh, the other coastal city in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta. Exacerbating impacts of Climate Change like accelerated sea level rise, impact of cyclones, rising temperature and high rainfall events and waterlogging, vis-à-vis the density of poor population in slums, Kolkata has been assessed as one of the most vulnerable cities of the world. However, Kolkata has long been a preferred destination for migrants for its port based economy, existence of industrial belt with labour intensive industries. The city and its surrounding districts attracted a massive influx of trans-border migrants when India and Bangladesh gained Independence in 1947 and 1971 respectively. The paper attempts to explore reasons behind the present trend of depopulation in the erstwhile preferred migration destination. This paper distinguishes between 'Kolkata City' (census district) with 4.5 million residents and 'Kolkata Megacity' which encompasses also the peri-urban areas and home to almost 14.1 million people according to Census 2011. Analysing migration as an ongoing research activity under DECCMA project, an overall 'in-migration' pattern can be deciphered in Kolkata 'megacity'. On the contrary, the Kolkata 'city' located right in the heart of the megacity exhibits negative net migration (-5.11%) i.e. high 'out-migration'. Plausible causes can be movement of people from Kolkata 'city' to peri-urban areas and satellite towns (urban to urban migration) probably due to closure of labour intensive industries, comparatively lower land prices, availability of space and accommodation, lower costs of living, development of different modes of commutation and communication. Further growth of population in the Kolkata Megacity

  3. Megacities and large urban agglomerations in the coastal zone: interactions between atmosphere, land, and marine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Glasow, Roland; Jickells, Tim D; Baklanov, Alexander; Carmichael, Gregory R; Church, Tom M; Gallardo, Laura; Hughes, Claire; Kanakidou, Maria; Liss, Peter S; Mee, Laurence; Raine, Robin; Ramachandran, Purvaja; Ramesh, R; Sundseth, Kyrre; Tsunogai, Urumu; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Zhu, Tong

    2013-02-01

    Megacities are not only important drivers for socio-economic development but also sources of environmental challenges. Many megacities and large urban agglomerations are located in the coastal zone where land, atmosphere, and ocean meet, posing multiple environmental challenges which we consider here. The atmospheric flow around megacities is complicated by urban heat island effects and topographic flows and sea breezes and influences air pollution and human health. The outflow of polluted air over the ocean perturbs biogeochemical processes. Contaminant inputs can damage downstream coastal zone ecosystem function and resources including fisheries, induce harmful algal blooms and feedback to the atmosphere via marine emissions. The scale of influence of megacities in the coastal zone is hundreds to thousands of kilometers in the atmosphere and tens to hundreds of kilometers in the ocean. We list research needs to further our understanding of coastal megacities with the ultimate aim to improve their environmental management.

  4. A Comparison of Traffic Operations among Beijing and Several International Megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanzhou Yang

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available High-Efficient traffic system is very important for economy and society of cities. Previous studies on the traffic comparison mostly took a city as a whole, but ignored the differences among areas inside the city. But in fact, the traffic congestion in different areas with a city is mostly different. Taking typical mega cities like Beijing, London, New York, and Tokyo as objects, this paper makes cross-comparison in the traffic operation and performance based on intelligent algorithm. Transportation infrastructure and travel demand data are discussed and unbalanced transport system is found in Beijing because of the conflict between too much traffic demand and defect road networks. From the aspects of traffic load, operational efficiency and safety, indexes including traffic v/c ratio, average vehicle speed and accident rate are selected to assess the performance of road traffic. It is concluded that road networks of Beijing have the worst performance compared with other three mega-cities and the primary reasons are the inappropriate distribution of utilization rate among the freeways, arterials, and local streets, and the high traffic concentration in urban area. So, several measures are recommended to improve the operation efficiency of traffic in Beijing especially for the green intelligent traffic system. Keywords: Traffic operation; Operational efficiency; Intelligent traffic system (ITS; Traffic load; traffic safety; Intelligent algorithm.

  5. How to make mega-cities energy efficient?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aoki, Hitoshi; Aoki, Yoshitaka

    2010-09-15

    Tokyo is a Megalopolis with 40 million+ population. It has an energy efficient profile due to its uniqueness as extensive mass rail transit networks, high density and compact urban formation, compact space oriented life style. The other feature is extensive use of electric heat pumps (EHP), which entails low carbon city profile. Further possibility is prepared with water thermal energy utilization, which is widely available also through EHP particularly in Tokyo central districts, which could make Tokyo one of the lowest carbon cities in the world. Emerging mega-cities are expected to learn from Tokyo's success and not from western conventional models.

  6. FUTURE WATER MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS IN ASIAN MEGACITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieter Prinz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Today, about half of the world population lives in urban areas and in the coming 20 years, urbanization is expected to increase steadily, especially in the Developing World. Based on UN data and projections, about 4 out of the 5 billion world urban population will live in developing countries by 2030. Large cities in the Developing World face the problem of unplanned growth, coupled with the financial and operational inability to offer the public services needed to sustain a decent life in urban environments. Water is one of those essential commodities which is often short in supply and/or of low quality. Additionally, flood poses a threat to urban dwellers during rainy season. The water management challenges in tropical urban areas today and in the decades to come can be characterized by (1 fighting physical shortcomings in water resources, (2 coping with contamination of groundwater, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs by domestic, agricultural or industrial waste and waste water, (3 mitigating environmental impacts of water extraction (such as loss of wetlands, subsidence and seawater intrusion , (4 preventing / mastering flood situations and (5 overcoming administrative and financial strains and operational incapacities. Solutions to the problems of urban water in 20 years time are to be found in supply side and demand side measures. The first group includes (1 optimal use of surface water and groundwater resources, (2 pollution protection, (3 watershed management and (4 more water storage. The second group includes (1 educational training, (2 technological innovation, (3 water conservation and (4 water pricing.

  7. Sustainable Urban Transport in the Developing World: Beyond Megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorina Pojani

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Megacities have frequently received a disproportionate amount of attention over other sizes of cities in recent discourse on urban sustainability. In this article, the authors argue that a focus on smaller and medium-sized cities is crucial to achieving substantial progress towards more sustainable urban development, not only because they are home to at least a quarter of the world’s population but because they also offer great potential for sustainable transformations. In principle, their size allows for flexibility in terms of urban expansion, adoption of “green” travel modes, and environmental protection. At the same time, smaller and medium-sized cities often have fewer resources to implement new transport measures and can be more vulnerable to fluctuations in the world economy. This article critically reviews the potential role and impact of nine commonly considered options for sustainable urban transport in cities in developing countries: (1 road infrastructure; (2 rail-based public transport; (3 road-based public transport; (4 support for non-motorized travel modes; (5 technological solutions; (6 awareness-raising campaigns; (7 pricing mechanisms; (8 vehicle access restrictions; and (9 control of land-uses. Drawing on international research and examples of policies to reduce the environmental impacts of transport in urban areas, this article identifies some key lessons for sustainable urban transport in smaller and medium-sized cities in developing countries. These lessons are certainly not always identical to those for megacities in the global south.

  8. New Approaches for Estimating Motor Vehicle Emissions in Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marr, L. C.; Thornhill, D. A.; Herndon, S. C.; Onasch, T. B.; Wood, E. C.; Kolb, C. E.; Knighton, W. B.; Mazzoleni, C.; Zavala, M. A.; Molina, L. T.

    2007-12-01

    The rapid proliferation of megacities and their air quality problems is producing unprecedented air pollution health risks and management challenges. Quantifying motor vehicle emissions in the developing world's megacities, where vehicle ownership is skyrocketing, is critical for evaluating the cities' impacts on the atmosphere at urban, regional, and global scales. The main goal of this research is to quantify gasoline- and diesel-powered motor vehicle emissions within the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). We apply positive matrix factorization to fast measurements of gaseous and particulate pollutants made by the Aerodyne Mobile Laboratory as it drove throughout the MCMA in 2006. We consider carbon dioxide; carbon monoxide; volatile organic compounds including benzene and formaldehyde; nitrogen oxides; ammonia; fine particulate matter; particulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; and black carbon. Analysis of the video record confirms the apportionment of emissions to different engine types. From the derived source profiles, we calculate fuel-based fleet-average emission factors and then estimate the total motor vehicle emission inventory. The advantages of this method are that it can capture a representative sample of vehicles in a variety of on-road driving conditions and can separate emissions from gasoline versus diesel engines. The results of this research can be used to help assess the accuracy of emission inventories and to guide the development of strategies for reducing vehicle emissions.

  9. Development of sewage system for mega-city Karachi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talat, B.; Ahsan-Ullah

    2005-01-01

    The growth of mega-cities in recent times has brought to the fore a large number of issues with respect environmental conditions such as development of slum areas, poor localities, solid waste disposal, management of sewage system, lack of open spaces and health facilities. One of the major issues effecting environment proper disposal of sewage and development of sewage system including recycling of sewage water and its use. The heavy pressure of population calls for adequate provision of sewage disposal in the new areas and remodeling of systems in the old areas of the cities to ensure a pollution-free environment. Recycling of sewage and prevention of sewage discharge into natural water channels and the sea has to be undertaken on urgent bases. The paper seeks to outline the present status of sewage system of the city of Karachi, the problems involved and the proposals for management and development of the system compatible with the need and requirement of mega-city population. (author)

  10. Urban air pollution in megacities of the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mage, David; Ozolins, Guntis; Peterson, Peter; Webster, Anthony; Orthofer, Rudi; Vandeweerd, Veerle; Gwynne, Michael

    Urban air pollution is a major environmental problem in the developing countries of the world. WHO and UNEP created an air pollution monitoring network as part of the Global Environment Monitoring System. This network now covers over 50 cities in 35 developing and developed countries throughout the world. The analyses of the data reported by the network over the past 15-20 yr indicate that the lessons of the prior experiences in the developed countries (U.S.A., U.K.) have not been learned. A study of air pollution in 20 of the 24 megacities of the world (over 10 million people by year 2000) shows that ambient air pollution concentrations are at levels where serious health effects are reported. The expected rise of population in the next century, mainly in the developing countries with a lack of capital for air pollution control, means that there is a great potential that conditions will worsen in many more cities that will reach megacity status. This paper maps the potential for air pollution that cities will experience in the future unless control strategies are developed and implemented during the next several decades.

  11. Managing future air quality in megacities: A case study for Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amann, Markus; Purohit, Pallav; Bhanarkar, Anil D.; Bertok, Imrich; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Cofala, Janusz; Heyes, Chris; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Klimont, Zbigniew; Liu, Jun; Majumdar, Dipanjali; Nguyen, Binh; Rafaj, Peter; Rao, Padma S.; Sander, Robert; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Srivastava, Anjali; Vardhan, B. Harsh

    2017-07-01

    Megacities in Asia rank high in air pollution at the global scale. In many cities, ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have been exceeding both the WHO interim targets as well as respective national air quality standards. This paper presents a systems analytical perspective on management options that could efficiently improve air quality at the urban scale, having Delhi as a case study. We employ the newly developed GAINS-City policy analysis framework, consisting of a bottom up emission calculation combined with atmospheric chemistry-transport calculation, to derive innovative insights into the current sources of pollution and their impacts on ambient PM2.5, both from emissions of primary PM as well as precursors of secondary inorganic and organic aerosols. We outline the likely future development of these sources, quantify the related ambient PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts, and explore potential policy interventions that could effectively reduce environmental pollution and resulting health impacts in the coming years. The analysis demonstrates that effective improvement of Delhi's air quality requires collaboration with neighboring States and must involve sources that are less relevant in industrialized countries. At the same time, many of the policy interventions will have multiple co-benefits on development targets in Delhi and its neighboring States. Outcomes of this study, as well as the modelling tools used herein, are applicable to other urban areas and fast growing metropolitan zones in the emerging Asian regions.

  12. GHG monitoring over Paris megacity and Orléans forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te, Y. V.; Jeseck, P.; Zanon, T.; Boursier, C.; Janssen, C.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.; Lac, C.; Dieudonné, E.; Lopez, M.; Schmidt, M.; Xueref-remy, I. C.

    2012-12-01

    In a growing world with more than 7 billion inhabitants and big emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India, emissions of anthropogenic pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are increasing continuously. Their monitoring and control in megacities have become a major challenge for scientists and public health authorities in environmental research area. The ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (QualAir FTS[a], model IFS 125HR) of the QualAir platform located in downtown Paris at University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), is a scientific research instrument dedicated to the survey of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air quality. Equipped with a sun-tracker, the remote sensing QualAir FTS relies on solar infrared absorption for monitoring trace gas concentrations and their variability in the Ile-de-France region[b]. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs, especially CO2, CH4 and N2O, are retrieved by the radiative transfer model PROFFIT[c]. Because Paris is the third largest European megacity, the QualAir FTS can provide new and complementary measurements as compared to existing ground-based FTS network stations (NDACC and TCCON) located in unpolluted environments, such as the TCCON-Orléans station[d] situated in the forest of Orléans (100 km south of Paris). In the effort to integrate QualAir FTS into the TCCON network, simultaneous FTS measurements of GHGs at Paris and Orléans have been performed. We will emphasize on comparisons of CO2 from these two sites. Our comparison will be completed by high-resolved direct CO2 modeling outputs from the Meso-NH model, and ground in situ measurements at different sites (Orléans/Trainou, Paris/Jussieu, Paris/Eiffel Tower). Parts of the data were acquired in the framework of the French CO2-MEGAPARIS project[e, f], whose main goal is to quantify CO2 emissions from the Paris area. The present data intercomparison will help to reduce uncertainties in carbon cycle models and to better characterize regional GHG fluxes

  13. Water management for a megacity: Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tortajada, Cecilia; Castelán, Enrique

    2003-03-01

    The paper presents an overview of the present situation of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The analysis indicates an urgent need to radically improve the current water supply and wastewater management practices, to become sustainable. The MCMA is one of the most rapidly growing urban centers of the world, with a population of about 21 million people, a very high rate of immigration and numerous illegal settlements. In order to meet the increasing water demand, successive governments have focused almost exclusively on supply management and engineering solutions, which have resulted in investments of hundreds of millions of USD and the construction of major infrastructure projects for interbasin water transfer. Environmental, economic and social policies associated with water management are mostly inadequate and insufficient, which is resulting in increasing deterioration in the environment, health and socioeconomic conditions of a population living in one of the largest urban agglomerations of the world. Surprisingly, however, no long-term strategies on demand-management, reuse, conservation, and improved water-management practices have been developed so far.

  14. Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

  15. Characteristics and factors of groundwater contamination in Asian coastal megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, M.; Onodera, S. I.; Jin, G.; Shimizu, Y.; Admajaya, F. T.

    2017-12-01

    For the sustainable use of groundwater resources for the future, it is important to conserve its quality as well as quantity. Especially in the developing megacities, land subsidence and groundwater pollution by several contaminants (e.g. nitrogen, trace metals and organic pollutants etc.) is one of a critical environmental problems, because of the intensive extraction of groundwater and huge amount of contaminant load derived from domestic wastewater as well as agricultural and industrial wastewater. However, the process of groundwater degradation, including depletion and contamination with urbanization, has not been examined well in the previous studies. In the present study, we aim to confirm the characteristics and factors of groundwater contamination in coastal Asian megacities such as Osaka and Jakarta. In Osaka, groundwater was used as a water resource during the period of rapid population increase before 1970, and consequently groundwater resources have been degraded. Hydraulic potential of groundwater has been recovered after the regulation for abstraction. However, it is still below sea level in the deeper aquifer (>20 m) of some regions, and higher Cl-, NH4+-N and PO43-P concentrations were detected in these regions. The results also suggest that shallower aquifer (>10 m) is influenced by infiltration of sewage to groundwater. In the Jakarta metropolitan area, current hydraulic potential is below sea level in because of prior excess abstraction of groundwater. As a result, the direction of groundwater flow is now downward in the coastal area. The distribution of Cl- and Mn concentration in groundwater suggests that the decline in hydraulic potential has caused the intrusion of seawater and shallow groundwater into deep groundwater. It implies an accumulation of contaminants in deep aquifers. On the other hands, NO3-N in groundwater is suggested to be attenuated by the processes of denitrification and dilution in the coastal area.

  16. Impact of anthropogenic emission on air quality over a megacity – revealed from an intensive atmospheric campaign during the Chinese Spring Festival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Huang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Chinese Spring Festival is one of the most important traditional festivals in China. The peak transport in the Spring Festival season (spring travel rush provides a unique opportunity for investigating the impact of human activity on air quality in the Chinese megacities. Emission sources are varied and fluctuate greatly before, during and after the Festival. Increased vehicular emissions during the "spring travel rush" before the 2009 Festival resulted in high level pollutants of NOx (270 μg m−3, CO (2572 μg m−3, black carbon (BC (8.5 μg m−3 and extremely low single scattering albedo of 0.76 in Shanghai, indicating strong, fresh combustion. Organics contributed most to PM2.5, followed by NO3, NH4+, and SO42−. During the Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve and Day, widespread usage of fireworks caused heavy pollution of extremely high aerosol concentration, scattering coefficient, SO2, and NOx. Due to the "spring travel rush" after the festival, anthropogenic emissions gradually climbed and mirrored corresponding increases in the aerosol components and gaseous pollutants. Secondary inorganic aerosol (SO42−, NO3, and NH4+ accounted for a dominant fraction of 74% in PM2.5 due to an increase in human activity. There was a greater demand for energy as vast numbers of people using public transportation or driving their own vehicles returned home after the Festival. Factories and constructions sites were operating again.

    The potential source contribution function (PSCF analysis illustrated the possible source areas for air pollutants of Shanghai. The effects of regional and long-range transport were both revealed. Five major sources, i.e. natural sources, vehicular emissions, burning of fireworks, industrial

  17. Growing Pains

    CERN Multimedia

    Katarina Anthony

    2013-01-01

    Heat expands and cold contracts: it’s a simple thermodynamic rule. But when temperatures swing from 300 K to near-absolute zero, this rule can mean a contraction of more than 80 metres across the LHC’s 27-km-long cryogenic system. Keeping this growth in check are compensators (a.k.a. bellows), which shrink and stretch in response to thermodynamic changes. Leak tests and X-rays now underway in the tunnel have revealed that these “joints” might be suffering from growing pains…   This 25-μm weld crack is thought to be the cause of the helium leaks. Prior to the LS1 warm-up, CERN’s cryogenic experts knew of two points in the machine’s cryogenic distribution system that were leaking helium. Fortunately, these leaks were sufficiently small, confined to known sub-sectors of the cryogenic line and – with help from the vacuum team (TE-VSC) – could easily be compensated for. But as the machine warmed up f...

  18. Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution Control Measures for Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, R.; Theloke, J.; Denier-van-der-Gon, H.; Kugler, U.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Roos, J.; Torras, S.

    2012-04-01

    Air pollution in large cities is still a matter of concern. Especially the concentration of fine particles (PM10 and PM2.5) is largest in large cities leading to severe health impacts. Furthermore the PM10 thresholds of the EU Air Quality Directive are frequently exceeded. Thus the question arises, whether the initiated policies and measures for mitigating air pollution are sufficient to meet the air quality targets and - if not - which efficient further pollution mitigation measures exist. These questions have been addressed in the EU research project MEGAPOLI for the four European megacities respectively agglomerations London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr area and Po valley. Firstly, a reference scenario of future activities and emissions has been compiled for the megacities for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 for all relevant air pollutants (CO, NH3, NMVOC, NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and SO2) and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O). The reference scenario takes into account as well population changes as technical progress and economic growth. As pollution flowing in from outside the city is about as important as pollution caused by emissions in the city, the analysis covers the whole of Europe and not only the city area. Emissions are then transformed into concentrations using atmospheric models. The higher concentrations in cities were estimated with a newly developed 'urban increment' model. Results show, that in the megacities the limits of the Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC) will be exceeded. Thus additional efforts are necessary to reduce emissions further. Thus, a number of further measures (not implemented in current legislation) were selected and assessed. These included mitigation options for road transport, other mobile sources, large combustion plants, small and medium combustion plants and industry. For each measure and in addition for various bundles of measures a cost-benefit analysis has been carried out. Benefits (avoided health risks and climate change risks) have

  19. Contribution of Tula Refinery flaring emissions to the Mexico megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almanza, Victor; Molina, Luisa; Sosa, Gustavo

    2013-04-01

    Flaring is an important source of greenhouse gases, particulate matter and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in both upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. In 2010 Mexico was the eleventh emitting country with 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas flared (World Bank, 2012). Black carbon (a component of soot) emissions from flaring facilities are of particular interest because soot is considered a short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) (UNEP, 2011). In 2011 there were 23 megacities of at least 10 million inhabitants. It is expected that this number increase to 37 by 2025, which will include one more in Northern America (NA) and two more in Latin America (UN, 2012). International collaborative projects like MILAGRO in NA and MEGAPOLI/CityZen in Europe, have been conducted to assess the impact of megacities air pollution at several scales. The former focused on the air pollution plume of Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), the largest megacity in NA. This work studies the contribution of flaring emissions from Tula Refinery to regional air quality. This is accomplished in two steps. First, the flame of a representative sour gas flare is modeled with a CFD combustion code in order to estimate emission rates of combustion by-products of interest for air quality. Mass flow rates of acetylene, ethylene, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, soot and sulfur dioxide are obtained. The emission rates of NO2 and SO2 are compared with measurements obtained at Tula as part of MILAGRO field campaign. The rates of soot, VOCs and CO emissions are compared with estimates obtained by Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP). The second stage takes the flaring emission rates of the aforementioned species as inputs to WRF-Chem in order to simulate the chemical transport of the plume from 22 March to 27 March of 2006. The air quality model presented reliable performance of the resolved meteorology, with respect to the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE

  20. Air Quality in Megacities: Lessons Learned from Mexico City Field Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, L. T.

    2014-12-01

    More than half of the world's population now lives in urban areas because of the opportunities for better jobs, access to city services, cultural and educational activities, and a desire for more stimulating human interaction. At the same time, many of these urban centers are expanding rapidly, giving rise to the phenomenon of megacities. In recent decades air pollution has become not only one of the most important environmental problems of megacities, but also presents serious consequences to human health and ecosystems and economic costs to society. Although the progress to date in combating air pollution problems in developed and some developing world megacities has been impressive, many challenges remain including the need to improve air quality while simultaneously mitigating climate change. This talk will present the results and the lessons learned from field measurements conducted in Mexico City Metropolitan Area - one of the world's largest megacities - over the past decade. While each city has its own unique circumstances, the need for an integrated assessment approach in addressing complex environmental problems is the same. There is no single strategy in solving air pollution problems in megacities; a mix of policy measures based on sound scientific findings will be necessary to improve air quality, protect public health, and mitigate climate change.

  1. Megacities in climate governance: the case of Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Teixeira da Silva

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the vital role of cities in climate governance, as places where the crisis is expressed in latent form, but also as emblematic spaces in terms of technological innovation and social empowerment. It discusses challenges of megacities like Rio de Janeiro, given their vulnerability, resilience and environmental risks to the transition of a more intelligent and sustainable patterns of urbanization, through its domestic policies and paradiplomacy networks. Este artigo mostra o papel vital das cidades na governança do clima, como lugares onde a crise se expressa de forma latente, mas também como espaços emblemáticos em termos de inovação tecnológica e empoderamento social. Discute os desafios de megacidades como Rio de Janeiro, considerando suas vulnerabilidades, riscos socioambientais e resiliências para a transição de modelos mais inteligentes e sustentáveis de urbanização, através de suas políticas domésticas e redes de paradiplomacia.

  2. Mitigating the Urban Heat Island Effect in Megacity Tehran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Sodoudi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities demonstrate higher nocturnal temperatures than surrounding rural areas, which is called “urban heat island” (UHI effect. Climate change projections also indicate increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, which will intensify the UHI effect. As megacity Tehran is affected by severe heatwaves in summer, this study investigates its UHI characteristics and suggests some feasible mitigation strategies in order to reduce the air temperature and save energy. Temperature monitoring in Tehran shows clear evidence of the occurrence of the UHI effect, with a peak in July, where the urban area is circa 6 K warmer than the surrounding areas. The mobile measurements show a park cool island of 6-7 K in 2 central parks, which is also confirmed by satellite images. The effectiveness of three UHI mitigation strategies high albedo material (HAM, greenery on the surface and on the roofs (VEG, and a combination of them (HYBRID has been studied using simulation with the microscale model ENVI-met. All three strategies show higher cooling effect in the daytime. The average nocturnal cooling effect of VEG and HYBRID (0.92, 1.10 K is much higher than HAM (0.16 K, although high-density trees show a negative effect on nocturnal cooling.

  3. Ground-Based Remote Sensing of Aerosol Properties over a Coastal Megacity of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman Tariq

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols are considered to be an important constituent of Earth’s atmosphere because of their climatic, environmental, and health effects. Therefore, while studying the global climate change, investigation of aerosol concentrations and properties is essential both at local and regional levels. In this paper, we have used relatively long-term Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET data during September 2006–August 2014 to analyze aerosol properties such as aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (AOD, Ångström exponent (440–870 nm (AE, refractive index (RI, and asymmetry parameter over Karachi, a coastal megacity of Pakistan. The average annual values of AOD and AE were found to be 0.48 ± 0.20 and 0.59 ± 0.29, respectively. The peak (0.88 ± 0.31 AOD was recorded in July with corresponding AE of 0.30 ± 0.22 representing reasonably higher concentration of coarse size particles over Karachi. The cluster analysis using the scatter plot between absorption AE and extinction AE revealed that desert dust prevailed in the atmosphere of Karachi in spring and summer, while biomass burning aerosols dominate in autumn and winter. The peak values of volume concentrations of coarse and fine-mode particulate matter were found in summer and autumn, respectively. Also, we found significant growing trend in single-scattering albedo with wavelength, indicating the domination of dust particles during summer and spring. The peak value of the real part of the RI was observed in spring (1.53 and modest in winter (1.50. On the contrary, the peak value of the imaginary part of the RI was observed to be constantly elevated in winter and lesser in spring.

  4. Potential Fuel Loadings, Fire Ignitions, and Smoke Emissions from Nuclear Bursts in Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Bardeen, C.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2006-12-01

    We consider the effects of "small" nuclear detonations in modern "megacities," focusing on the possible extent of fire ignitions, and the properties of corresponding smoke emissions. Explosive devices in the multi-kiloton yield range are being produced by a growing number of nuclear states (Toon et al., 2006), and such weapons may eventually fall into the hands of terrorists. The numbers of nuclear weapons that might be used in a regional conflict, and their potential impacts on population and infrastructure, are discussed elsewhere. Here, we estimate the smoke emissions that could lead to widespread environmental effects, including large-scale climate anomalies. We find that low-yield weapons, which emerging nuclear states have been stockpiling, and which are likely to be targeted against cities in a regional war, can generate up to 100 times as much smoke per kiloton of yield as the high-yield weapons once associated with a superpower nuclear exchange. The fuel loadings in modern cities are estimated using a variety of data, including extrapolations from earlier detailed studies. The probability of ignition and combustion of fuels, smoke emission factors and radiative properties, and prompt scavenging and dispersion of the smoke are summarized. We conclude that a small regional nuclear war might generate up to 5 teragrams of highly absorbing particles in urban firestorms, and that this smoke could initially be injected into the middle and upper troposphere. These results are used to develop smoke emission scenarios for a climate impact analysis reported by Oman et al. (2006). Uncertainties in the present smoke estimates are outlined. Oman, L., A. Robock, G. L. Stenchikov, O. B. Toon, C. Bardeen and R. P. Turco, "Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts," AGU, Fall 2006. Toon, O. B., R. P. Turco, A. Robock, C. Bardeen, L. Oman and G. L. Stenchikov, "Consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism," AGU, Fall

  5. MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S.; Mahura, A.; Finardi, S.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Beekmann, M.; Laj, P.; Gomes, L.; Jaffrezo, J.-L.; Borbon, A.; Coll, I.; Gros, V.; Sciare, J.; Kukkonen, J.; Galmarini, S.; Giorgi, F.; Grimmond, S.; Esau, I.; Stohl, A.; Denby, B.; Wagner, T.; Butler, T.; Baltensperger, U.; Builtjes, P.; van den Hout, D.; van der Gon, H. D.; Collins, B.; Schluenzen, H.; Kulmala, M.; Zilitinkevich, S.; Sokhi, R.; Friedrich, R.; Theloke, J.; Kummer, U.; Jalkinen, L.; Halenka, T.; Wiedensholer, A.; Pyle, J.; Rossow, W. B.

    2010-11-01

    The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes.

  6. Relevance of the land use changes related to a megacity development in a Colombian river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Arias, Alicia; Romero Hernández, Claudia Patricia; Francés, Félix

    2017-04-01

    A megacity development is a main driving force for land uses changes. Population in these megacities usually rise depending on some or all of the natural resources related to the occupied area and, among them, water is a pivotal requirement. On the other hand, land use changes determine the catchment hydrology and, in consequence, its management. The better knowledge on land uses cover distribution and characteristics, the higher capabilities to increase the accuracy of hydrological predictions and the efficiency of water management. This study aims to describe the land uses changes occurred during the recent expansion of the megacity of Bogotá (Colombia) and to understand the expected changes. In addition, we propose the base for the consideration of this land use changes in the TETIS distributed hydrological modelling approach. The discussion focus on the necessity of considering this kind of scenarios in hydrological modelling for a responsible management of the water resources.

  7. Demand response in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

    2004-11-01

    Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

  8. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  9. The Space-Borne SBAS-DInSAR Technique as a Supporting Tool for Sustainable Urban Policies: The Case of Istanbul Megacity, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiana Calò

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In today’s urbanizing world, home of 28 megacities, there is a growing need for tools to assess urban policies and support the design and implementation of effective development strategies. Unsustainable practices of urbanization bring major implications for land and environment, and cause a dramatic increase of urban vulnerability to natural hazards. In Istanbul megacity, disaster risk reduction represents a challenging issue for urban managers. In this paper, we show the relevance of the space-borne Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR technique as a tool for supporting risk management, and thus contributing to achieve the urban sustainability. To this aim, we use a dataset of high resolution SAR images collected by the TerraSAR-X satellite that have been processed through the advanced (multi-temporal Small BAseline Subset (SBAS—DInSAR technique, thus producing spatially-dense deformation velocity maps and associated time-series. Results allow to depict an up-to-date picture of surface deformations occurring in Istanbul, and thus to identify urban areas subject to potential risk. The joint analysis of remotely sensed measurements and ancillary data (geological and urban development information provides an opportunity for city planners and land professionals to discuss on the mutual relationship between urban development policies and natural/man-made hazards.

  10. Enabling technologies for demand management: Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Roderick A.

    2008-01-01

    Rising transport demand is likely to be the biggest hurdle to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Globally and nationally, transport is consuming an ever increasing share of our total energy use. Furthermore, the bulk of energy used in transport comes from the burning of petroleum products. This brief paper summarises options arising from the two routes to reduce energy demand in transport: improved and more efficient use of existing and possible new transport modes, and the reduction of transport demand. In both areas, the prospects in the immediate and longer-term future are hedged with difficulties. Automobiles and aircraft have improved considerably in recent decades, but future improvements are likely to be incremental. The introduction of hydrogen as a fuel is appealing, but there are technical problems to be solved. Active reduction of demand for transport will require a decoupling of the link between demand and growth in gross domestic product. Globally, this will be very difficult to achieve. Various modes of public transport exist that are efficient in terms of their energy use per passenger kilometre. But they need large investments to make them more attractive than the automobile. However, population concentration in mega-cities, allied with congestion, will make such innovation essential. Policy measures can be assisted in their implementation by new technology, but will remain politically problematic

  11. Green Spaces as an Indicator of Urban Health: Evaluating Its Changes in 28 Mega-Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conghong Huang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban green spaces can yield considerable health benefits to urban residents. Assessing these health benefits is a key step for managing urban green spaces for human health and wellbeing in cities. In this study, we assessed the change of health benefits generated by urban green spaces in 28 megacities worldwide between 2005 and 2015 by using availability and accessibility as proxy indicators. We first mapped land covers of 28 megacities using 10,823 scenes of Landsat images and a random forest classifier running on Google Earth Engine. We then calculated the availability and accessibility of urban green spaces using the land cover maps and gridded population data. The results showed that the mean availability of urban green spaces in these megacities increased from 27.63% in 2005 to 31.74% in 2015. The mean accessibility of urban green spaces increased from 65.76% in 2005 to 72.86% in 2015. The increased availability and accessibility of urban green spaces in megacities have brought more health benefits to their residents.

  12. Assessing the Disaster Resilience of Megacities: The Case of Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Sim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Many megacities are facing potential threats from various disasters, especially in the face of climate change. However, evaluating the resilience of megacities is not well established in both the academia and practice field. Using Hong Kong, which is a megacity ranked as the city in Asia with the highest risk for natural disasters, as a case study, we demonstrated the effort of assessing the resilience of a megacity. The Sendai Framework Local Urban Indicators Tools that was developed by the United Nation Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR was adopted as the main tool in this study, and a mixed bottom-up participatory and top-down method was utilized in the evaluation process. This is an innovative and participatory approach that is not commonly adopted in assessing the resilience of cities. The study found that Hong Kong is disaster resilient in that it mainstreams disaster risk in its development and that it dedicates sufficient financial resources. However, Hong Kong may improve on its disaster governance and encourage cooperation between the government and society to identify disaster risk and share information, particularly in the face of climate change and calls for more sustainable development.

  13. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I; Ferse, Sebastian C A; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

  14. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunilla Baum

    Full Text Available Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers, however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

  15. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation. PMID:26378910

  16. UK Nuclear Workforce Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, John

    2017-01-01

    UK Nuclear Sites: DECOMMISSIONING - 26 Magnox Reactors, 2 Fast Reactors; OPERATIONAL - 14 AGRs, 1 PWR; 9.6 GWe Total Capacity. Nuclear Workforce Demand • Total workforce demand is expected to grow from ~88,000 in 2017 to ~101,000 in 2021 • Average “inflow” is ~7,000 FTEs per annum • 22% of the workforce is female (28% in civil, 12% in defence) • 81% generic skills, 18% nuclear skills, 1% subject matter experts • 3300 trainees total in SLCs and Defence Enterprise (16% graduate trainees) • At peak demand on Civils Construction, over 4,000 workers will be required on each nuclear new build site • Manufacturing workforce is expected to rise from around 4,000 in 2014 to 8,500 at the peak of onsite activity in 2025

  17. Statistical exploration of dataset examining key indicators influencing housing and urban infrastructure investments in megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedeji O. Afolabi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Lagos, by the UN standards, has attained the megacity status, with the attendant challenges of living up to that titanic position; regrettably it struggles with its present stock of housing and infrastructural facilities to match its new status. Based on a survey of construction professionals’ perception residing within the state, a questionnaire instrument was used to gather the dataset. The statistical exploration contains dataset on the state of housing and urban infrastructural deficit, key indicators spurring the investment by government to upturn the deficit and improvement mechanisms to tackle the infrastructural dearth. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics were used to present the dataset. The dataset when analyzed can be useful for policy makers, local and international governments, world funding bodies, researchers and infrastructural investors. Keywords: Construction, Housing, Megacities, Population, Urban infrastructures

  18. Megacity Green Infrastructure Converts Water into Billions of Dollars in Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endreny, T. A.; Ulgiati, S.; Santagata, R.

    2016-12-01

    Cities can invest in green infrastructure to purposefully couple water with urban tree growth, thereby generating ecosystem services and supporting human wellbeing as advocated by United Nations sustainable development initiatives. This research estimates the value of tree-based ecosystem services in order to help megacities assess the benefits relative to the costs of such investments. We inventoried tree cover across the metropolitan area of 10 megacities, in 5 continents and biomes, and developed biophysical scaling equations using i-Tree tools to estimate the tree cover value to reductions in air pollution, stormwater, building energy, and carbon emissions. Metropolitan areas ranged from 1173 to 18,720 sq km (median value 2530 sq km), with median tree cover 21%, and potential additional tree cover 19%, of this area. Median tree cover density was 39 m2/capita (compared with global value of 7800 m2/capita), with lower density in desert and tropical biomes, and higher density in temperate biomes. Using water to support trees led to median benefits of 1.2 billion/yr from reductions in CO, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5, 27 million/yr in avoided stormwater processing by wastewater facilities, 1.2 million/yr in building energy heating and cooling savings, and 20 million/yr in CO2 sequestration. These ecosystem service benefits contributed between 0.1% and 1% of megacity GDP, with a median contribution of 0.3%. Adjustment of benefit value between different city economies considered factors such as purchasing power parity and emergy to money ratio conversions. Green infrastructure costs billions of dollars less than grey infrastructure, and stormwater based grey infrastructure provides fewer benefits. This analysis suggests megacities should invest in tree-based green infrastructure to maintain and increase ecosystem service benefits, manage their water resources, and improve human wellbeing.

  19. Transforming Karachi into a Livable and Competitive Megacity : A City Diagnostic and Transformation Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2018-01-01

    With a population of 16 million, Karachi is the largest megacity in Pakistan. Despite being a large city that is home to many, it has seen a substantial decline in quality of life and economic competitiveness in recent decades. Basic service delivery is very poor, with very low indicators for water supply, sanitation, public transport and public spaces. Pollution levels are high, and the city is vulnerable to disasters and climate change. A highly complex political economy, institutional frag...

  20. Calculation of high-rise construction limitations for non-resident housing fund in megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliashenko Oksana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to topical issues of urban planning in terms of high-rise construction of a non-resident housing stock in relation to megacities. We consider this issue taking into account the limitations of natural, communal and social resources. The problem is especially acute for the overwhelming majority of the state capitals, as well as cities with historical heritage that are of great interest due to the rapid development of tourism and the high mobility of the population in the world. The growth of the population of many states capitals led to the use of high-rise buildings as a non-resident housing stock. However, there are a number of restrictions on the high-rise construction of non-resident housing stock in megacities. The authors formalize the problem of determining the optimal ratio of the volume of urban buildings belonging to the high-rise buildings types and intended for non-residents to a common housing fund. We conduct economic calculations to determine the quantitative indicators. It can be used as the basis for administrative measures aimed at limiting the people flow arriving with the intention of temporarily deploying in megacities.

  1. Calculation of high-rise construction limitations for non-resident housing fund in megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliashenko, Oksana; Krasnov, Sergey; Sergeev, Sergey

    2018-03-01

    The paper is devoted to topical issues of urban planning in terms of high-rise construction of a non-resident housing stock in relation to megacities. We consider this issue taking into account the limitations of natural, communal and social resources. The problem is especially acute for the overwhelming majority of the state capitals, as well as cities with historical heritage that are of great interest due to the rapid development of tourism and the high mobility of the population in the world. The growth of the population of many states capitals led to the use of high-rise buildings as a non-resident housing stock. However, there are a number of restrictions on the high-rise construction of non-resident housing stock in megacities. The authors formalize the problem of determining the optimal ratio of the volume of urban buildings belonging to the high-rise buildings types and intended for non-residents to a common housing fund. We conduct economic calculations to determine the quantitative indicators. It can be used as the basis for administrative measures aimed at limiting the people flow arriving with the intention of temporarily deploying in megacities.

  2. CO Seasonal Variability and Trend over Paris Megacity Using Ground-Based QualAir FTS and Satellite IASI-MetOp Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te, Yao; Jeseck, Pascal; Hadji-Lazaro, Juliette

    2012-11-01

    In a growing world with more than 7 billion inhabitants and big emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India, emissions of anthropogenic pollutants are increasing continuously. Monitoring and control of atmospheric pollutants in megacities have become a major challenge for scientists and public health authorities in environmental research area. The QualAir platform at University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), is an innovating experimental research platform dedicated to survey urban atmospheric pollution and air quality. A Bruker Optics IFS 125HR Fourier transform spectrometer belonged to the Laboratoire de Physique Moléculaire pour l'Atmosphère et l'Astrophysique (LPMAA), was adapted for ground-based atmospheric measurements. As one of the major instruments of the QualAir platform, this ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (QualAir FTS) analyses the composition of the urban atmosphere of Paris, which is the third largest European megacity. The continuous monitoring of atmospheric pollutants is essential to improve the understanding of urban air pollution processes. Associated with a sun-tracker, the QualAir remote sensing FTS operates in solar infrared absorption and enables to monitor many trace gases, and to follow up their variability in the Ile-de-France region. Concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are retrieved by the radiative transfer model PROFFIT. These ground-based remote sensing measurements are compared to ground in-situ measurements and to satellite data from IASI-MetOp (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer). The remote sensing total column of the carbon monoxide (CO) obtained from January 2009 to June 2012, has a seasonal variability with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. While, after 2008, the mean CO level is quite stable (no significant decrease as before 2008).

  3. Remote sensing of GHG over Paris megacity and Orléans forest using ground-based QualAir FTS and TCCON-Orléans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te, Y.; Jeseck, P.; Da Costa, J.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.

    2012-04-01

    In a growing world with more than 7 billion inhabitants and big emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India, emissions of anthropogenic pollutants are increasing continuously. Monitoring and control of atmospheric pollutants in megacities have become a major challenge for scientists and public health authorities in environmental research area. The QualAir platform at University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), is an innovating experimental research platform dedicated to survey greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air quality. As one of the major instruments of the QualAir platform, the ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (QualAir FTS, IFS 125HR model) analyses the composition of the urban atmosphere of Paris, which is the third European megacity. The continuous monitoring of atmospheric pollutants is essential to improve the understanding of urban air pollution processes. Associated with a sun-tracker, the QualAir remote sensing FTS operates in solar infrared absorption and enables to monitor many trace gases, and to follow up their variability in the Ile-de-France region. A description of the QualAir FTS will be given. Concentrations of atmospheric GHG, especially CO2 and CH4, are retrieved by the radiative transfer model PROFFIT. Located in the centre of Paris, the QualAir FTS can provide new and complementary urban measurements as compared to unpolluted ground-based stations of existing networks (NDACC and TCCON). The work made by LPMAA to join the TCCON network will also be presented. TCCON-Orléans is a ground-based FTS of the TCCON network located in the forest of Orléans (100 km south of Paris). Preliminary comparisons of GHGs measurements from both sites will be shown. Such ground-based information will help to better characterize regional GHGs, especially regarding anthropogenic emissions and trends.

  4. Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally

  5. Growing media [Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass F. Jacobs; Thomas D. Landis; Tara Luna

    2009-01-01

    Selecting the proper growing medium is one of the most important considerations in nursery plant production. A growing medium can be defined as a substance through which roots grow and extract water and nutrients. In native plant nurseries, a growing medium can consist of native soil but is more commonly an "artificial soil" composed of materials such as peat...

  6. Investigating Bidirectional Reflectance in the Los Angeles Megacity Using CLARS Multiangle and Hyperspectral Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Z. C.; Natraj, V.; Pongetti, T.; Shia, R. L.; Sander, S. P.; Yung, Y. L.

    2017-12-01

    The surface reflectance is a key ingredient in the remote sensing of surface and atmospheric properties from space. The determination of atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations, from reflected sunlight requires accurate knowledge of the contribution from the underlying surface. Over megacity areas, such as the Los Angeles (LA) basin, which are major sources of GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols, the quantification of surface reflectance is challenging due to the associated complex land use types. In this study, we investigate the bidirectional reflectance in the Los Angeles megacity area using multiangle and hyperspectral radiance measurements from the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS). The CLARS facility is located near the top of Mt. Wilson, at an altitude of 1670 m a.s.l., overlooking the LA megacity area with an FTS operating since 2011 to continuously monitor the GHGs and near-surface aerosols in the basin. The CLARS-FTS offers continuous high-resolution spectral measurements in the visible, near infrared and shortwave infrared spectral regions. The CLARS measurements mimic the off-nadir viewing of a low-Earth orbiting instrument, such as GOSAT and OCO-2, but with daily viewing capability. Eight surface targets with different land use types, including urban parks, industrial and residential areas, are selected in this study. The surface reflectance for specific solar incident and viewing angles is calculated by dividing, for non-absorbing spectral channels on clear days (such that gas and aerosol extinction can be ignored), the observed radiance reflected from surface targets by the observed irradiance. The non-linear Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete (RPV) model is used to model the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) by fitting the multiangle and hyperspectral measurements. By evaluating the retrieved RPV parameters, we find that the RPV model provides a good representation of the

  7. In demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, B. [Bridgestone Ltd. (United Kingdom)

    2005-11-01

    The paper explains how good relationships can help alleviate potential tyre shortages. Demand for large dump truck tyres (largely for China) has increased by 50% within 12 months. Bridgestone's manufacturing plants are operating at maximum capacity. The company supplies tyres to all vehicles at Scottish Coal's opencast coal mines. Its Tyre Management System (TMS) supplied free of charge to customers helps maximise tyre life and minimise downtime from data on pressure, tread and general conditions fed into the hand-held TMS computer. 3 photos.

  8. Featured collection introduction: Water for megacities - challenges and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Ari M. Michelsen; Zhuping Sheng; Andrew Feng Fang; Yizi Shang; Huilan Zhang

    2015-01-01

    The Earth has entered into Anthropocene, a new epoch dominated by people. The world’s urban population has grown more than four times during the past 60 years to 3.9 billion. Today, more people are living in the cities than in the countryside in most nations. Cities are growing bigger and faster than ever before (United Nations, 2014). Cities that have a population...

  9. A growing demand in emerging countries. Millennium development goals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahm, Peter [PA Energy (Denmark)

    2007-06-15

    This presentation is basically about the Millennium Development goals and its relation to the Photovoltaic Power System Programme (PVPS) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In the first part, there are mentioned the following aspects: objectives and mission of the PVPS, situation in the rural electrification, relation between the sustainability of the energy and the development of a country, targets of the Millennium Development Goals concerning the developing countries, among others. Then, there are shown some comparison charts having data related to this topic, among there are going to be found: percent of the population without electricity access, estimated off-grid installations, etc. Finally, there are mentioned the Publications of Photovoltaic Systems for Developing Countries (PVSDC) [Spanish] Basicamente en esta presentacion se habla acerca de los objetivos de Desarollo del Milenio y su relacion con el programa de Sistemas Fotovoltaicos (SFV) de la Agencia Internacional de la Energia (AIE). En la primera parte, son mencionados los siguientes aspectos: objetivos y mision del programa de SFV, situacion de la electrificacion de zonas rurales, relacion entre la sustentabilidad de la energia y el desarrollo de un pais, objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en relacion con los paises en vias de desarrollo, entre otros mas. Enseguida, se muestran algunos cuadros comparativos, los cuales contienen informacion relacion con este tema, entre los que se pueden encontrar: porcentaje de la poblacion que no cuenta con electricidad, estimado de numero de instalaciones aisladas de la red, etc. Finalmente, se mencionan las publicaciones de los sistemas fotovoltaicos para los paises en vias de desarrollo (PVSDC por sus siglas en ingles)

  10. Wind Power:Growing with the Demand of Sustainable Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    History review Looking back upon the human history,China is among the earliest countries which make use of wind energy.It started to use the wind energy to pump water for irrigation very long time ago.Since the establishment of the new China,pilot projects of wind energy generation have

  11. Wind Power: Growing with the Demand of Sustainable Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Chengxu; Li Wei

    2009-01-01

    @@ History review Looking back upon the human history, China is among the earliest countries which make use of wind energy. It started to use the wind energy to pump water for irrigation very long time ago. Since the establishment of the new China, pilot projects of wind energy generation have been carried out in many areas. In 1975, Tsinghua University and the Inner Mongolia Prairie Research Institute cooperated to develop wind turbines. They developed prototypes of 50/100-W off-grid micro wind turbines. Meanwhile, small wind turbines were also developed in other areas. The wind turbines produced at that time were all in small capacity and did not play important role in power industry.

  12. In situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris megacity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beekmann, M.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Drewnick, F.; Sciare, J.; Pandis, S.N.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Crippa, M.; Freutel, F.; Poulain, L.; Ghersi, V.; Rodriguez, E.; Beirle, S.; Zotter, P.; Weiden-Reinmüller, S.L. von der; Bressi, M.; Fountoukis, C.; Petetin, H.; Szidat, S.; Schneider, J.; Rosso, A.; El Haddad, I.; Megaritis, A.; Zhang, Q.J.; Michoud, V.; Slowik, J.G.; Moukhtar, S.; Kolmonen, P.; Stohl, A.; Eckhardt, S.; Borbon, A.; Gros, V.; Marchand, N.; Jaffrezo, J.L.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Borrmann, S.; Lawrence, M.; Baklanov, A.; Baltensperger, U.

    2015-01-01

    A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70 % of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions.

  13. New directions: Air pollution challenges for developing megacities like Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Prashant; Khare, Mukesh; Harrison, Roy M.; Bloss, William J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Coe, Hugh; Morawska, Lidia

    2015-12-01

    Most major cities around the world experience periods of elevated air pollution levels, which exceed international health-based air quality standards (Kumar et al., 2013). Although it is a global problem, some of the highest air pollution levels are found in rapidly expanding cities in India and China. The sources, emissions, transformations and broad effects of meteorology on air pollution are reasonably well accounted in air quality control strategies in many developed cities; however these key factors remain poorly constrained in the growing cities of countries with emerging economies. We focus here on Delhi, one of the largest global population centres, which faces particular air pollution challenges, now and in the future.

  14. Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management in Istanbul (MegaIST)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Kılıç, Osman; Baş, Mahmut; Khazai, Bijan; Ergün Konukcu, Betul; Emre Basmacı, Ahmet

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers need tools to understand the priorities and to set up benchmarks and track progress in their disaster risk reduction activities, so that they can justify their decisions and investments. In this regard, Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management (MegaIST), is developed in order to be used in disaster risk management studies, for decision makers and managers to establish right strategies and proper risk reduction actions, enhance resource management and investment decisions, set priorities, monitor progress in DRM and validate decisions taken with the aim of helping disaster oriented urban redevelopment, inform investors about risk profile of the city and providing a basis for dissemination and sharing of risk components with related stakeholders; by Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). MegaIST achieves these goals by analyzing the earthquake risk in three separate but complementary sub-categories consisting of "urban seismic risk, coping capacity and disaster risk management index" in an integrated way. MegaIST model fosters its analyses by presenting the outputs in a simple and user friendly format benefiting from GIS technology that ensures the adoptability of the model's use. Urban seismic risk analysis includes two components, namely; Physical Risk and Social Vulnerability Analysis. Physical risk analysis is based on the possible physical losses (such as building damage, casualties etc.) due to an earthquake while social vulnerability is considered as a factor that increases the results of the physical losses in correlation with the level of education, health, economic status and disaster awareness/preparedness of society. Coping capacity analysis is carried out with the aim of understanding the readiness of the Municipality to respond and recover from a disaster in Istanbul can be defined both in terms of the Municipality's operational capacities - the capacity of the

  15. Water quality and small-scale land use mapping in the South-Chinese megacity Guangzhou

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohschoen, R.; Azzam, R.; Baier, K.

    2011-12-01

    Since China adopted its "open-door" policy in 1978/ 79, the Pearl River Delta became one of the most rapid and dynamic urbanizing areas in East Asia due to migration, industrialization and globalization processes. The study area Guangzhou grew from a small town to a megacity with some 15 million inhabitants within less than 30 years. The rapid population growth and the urban and industrial expansion led to a remarkably increasing demand for freshwater, a high water consume and a rising sewage production. While economy and house constructions developed very fast, the expansion of water infrastructures could not keep pace with the urban growth. The consequences arising out of these situations are a serious deterioration of the surface and groundwater resources but also a degradation of living conditions and a threat to human health, particularly of the urban poor. In contrast to other studies that often consider the surface water quality outside Guangzhou, our focus was put on the urban Pearl River and its tributaries as well as urban groundwater and tap water. The study was conducted to spatially investigate the present status of the water quality in view of the concurrent formal and informal anthropogenic influences. Additional land use mapping was undertaken to analyze the interrelations between different land use types and water quality and to determine local pollution hotspots which should be taken into particular consideration of future city planning. Supplementing interviews were hold to find out usage patterns of groundwater and strategies to cope with both insufficient tap water quality and water infrastructures. A total of 74 surface water samples and 16 groundwater samples of privately and publicly accessible wells were taken at the beginning of the rainy season in May 2010. Those samples were partly compared to measurements carried out from 2007-2009, where adequate. Further, 15 tap water samples were taken in 2007/ 08 to draw conclusions about possible

  16. Cheap heat grows in fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2006-01-01

    Slovak farmers resemble the peasants from the film T he Magnificent Seven . They keep complaining about their fate but consider any innovation as an interference. And that is why they still have not started growing fast-growing wood although the number of heating plants processing bio-mass from forests and fields is growing. Natural gas is expensive and coal creates pollution. Energy from biomass is becoming a good business and also creates new business opportunities - growing the raw material it needs. Such heating plants usually use waste from wood processing companies and Slovak Forests (Lesy SR) has also started deliveries of chip wood from old forests. There are plantations of fast growing wood suitable for heat production of over 500-thousand hectares throughout the EU. This is about 10% of Slovakian's area where the first plantations are also already being set up. The first promising plantation project was launched this spring. And this is not a project launched and backed by a big company but a starting up businessman, Miroslav Forgac from Kosice. He founded his company, Forgim, last winter. Without big money involved and thank to a new business idea he managed to persuade farmers to set up the first plantations. He supplied the seedlings and the business has started with 75 ha of plantations around Trnava, Sala, Komarno, Lucenec, Poprad and Kosice. He is gradually signing contracts with other landowners and next year the area of plantations is set to grow by 1500 ha. Plantations of fast growing trees such as willow, poplar and acacia regenerate by new trees growing out of the roots of the old and from cut trees so from one seedling and one investment there can be several harvests. Swedish willows from Forgim regenerate 20 to 25 years after the first planting. And only then new seedlings have to be purchased. Using special machines that even cut the wood to wood chips the plantations can be 'harvested' every three years. Unlike crops, the fields do not

  17. Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

    2014-05-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

  18. Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

    2017-12-01

    and reduce the sea-land temperature gradient, thus reducing the sea-breeze magnitude. Impacts to human health and buildings energy demand are explored for future climate scenarios as key examples of anticipated societal consequences.

  19. Urban UV environment in a sub-tropical megacity – A measurement and modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ka-Ming Wai

    Full Text Available The variations of solar total UV (UVA + UVB exposure rates in a megacity featured with high-rise buildings during summer months were measured and relevant model predictions were evaluated. The maximum pedestrian-level total solar UV exposure rate was less than the un-obstructed exposure rate at any time, attributing to the prevailing reduction in the diffuse solar radiation due to the obstruction effects of distant buildings. Comparing with the measurements, our coupled model well captured the spatial and temporal variations of the reduction of UV exposure rates. By measurements, large reduction in the solar total UV exposure rate down to 12% of un-obstructed exposure rate due to the building obstruction effects was found, agreeing with our previous simulation results and results from an Australian megacity. On the other hand, building reflection from reflective curtain walls could reach 23% of the un-obstructed solar total UV exposure rate at the ground level. This implied improper building design creating additional harmful effects of solar UV radiation on the environment. The coupled model was also applied to predict the urban UV exposure rates during a tropical-cyclone induced aerosol episode. A well-evaluated urban solar UV model is an important tool for sustainable urban design.

  20. Diversity and human perceptions of bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) in Southeast Asian megacities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sing, Kong-Wah; Wang, Wen-Zhi; Wan, Tao; Lee, Ping-Shin; Li, Zong-Xu; Chen, Xing; Wang, Yun-Yu; Wilson, John-James

    2016-10-01

    Urbanization requires the conversion of natural land cover to cover with human-constructed elements and is considered a major threat to biodiversity. Bee populations, globally, are under threat; however, the effect of rapid urban expansion in Southeast Asia on bee diversity has not been investigated. Given the pressing issues of bee conservation and urbanization in Southeast Asia, coupled with complex factors surrounding human-bee coexistence, we investigated bee diversity and human perceptions of bees in four megacities. We sampled bees and conducted questionnaires at three different site types in each megacity: a botanical garden, central business district, and peripheral suburban areas. Overall, the mean species richness and abundance of bees were significantly higher in peripheral suburban areas than central business districts; however, there were no significant differences in the mean species richness and abundance between botanical gardens and peripheral suburban areas or botanical gardens and central business districts. Urban residents were unlikely to have seen bees but agreed that bees have a right to exist in their natural environment. Residents who did notice and interact with bees, even though being stung, were more likely to have positive opinions towards the presence of bees in cities.

  1. Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Saez, Javier; King, Aaron A.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2017-10-01

    Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.

  2. Assessing Urban Water Management Sustainability of a Megacity: Case Study of Seoul, South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyowon Kim

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Many cities are facing various water-related challenges caused by rapid urbanization and climate change. Moreover, a megacity may pose a greater risk due to its scale and complexity for coping with impending challenges. Infrastructure and governance also differ by the level of development of a city which indicates that the analysis of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM and water governance are site-specific. We examined the status of IWRM of Seoul by using the City Blueprint® Approach which consists of three different frameworks: (1 Trends and Pressures Framework (TPF, (2 City Blueprint Framework (CBF and (3 the water Governance Capacity Framework (GCF. The TPF summarizes the main social, environmental and financial pressures that may impede water management. The CBF assesses IWRM of the urban water cycle. Finally, the GCF identifies key barriers and opportunities to develop governance capacity. The results indicate that nutrient recovery from wastewater, stormwater separation, and operation cost recovery of water and sanitation services are priority areas for Seoul. Furthermore, the local sense of urgency, behavioral internalization, consumer willingness to pay, and financial continuation are identified as barriers limiting Seoul’s governance capacity. We also examined and compared the results with other mega-cities, to learn from their experiences and plans to cope with the challenges in large cities.

  3. Megacities and Large Urban Complexes - WMO Role in Addressing Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terblanche, Deon; Jalkanen, Liisa

    2013-04-01

    Megacities and Large Urban Complexes - WMO Role in Addressing Challenges and Opportunities Deon E. Terblanche and Liisa Jalkanen dterblanche@wmo.int ljalkanen@wmo.int World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland The 21st Century could amongst others, become known as the century in which our species has evolved from Homo sapiens to Homo urbanus. By now the urban population has surpassed the rural population and the rate of urbanization will continue at such a pace that by 2050 urban dwellers could outnumber their rural counterpart by more than two to one. Most of this growth in urban population will occur in developing countries and along coastal areas. Urbanization is to a large extent the outcome of humans seeking a better life through improved opportunities presented by high-density communities. Megacities and large urban complexes provide more job opportunities and social structures, better transport and communication links and a relative abundance of physical goods and services when compared to most rural areas. Unfortunately these urban complexes also present numerous social and environmental challenges. Urban areas differ from their surroundings by morphology, population density, and with high concentration of industrial activities, energy consumption and transport. They also pose unique challenges to atmospheric modelling and monitoring and create a multi-disciplinary spectrum of potential threats, including air pollution, which need to be addressed in an integrated way. These areas are also vulnerable to the changing climate and its implications to sea-level and extreme events, air quality and related health impacts. Many urban activities are significantly impacted by weather events that would not be considered to be of high impact in less densely populated areas. For instance, moderate precipitation events can cause flooding and landslides as modified urban catchments generally have higher run-off to rainfall ratios than their more pristine rural

  4. Creative Shenzhen? A critical view on Shenzhen's transformation from a low-cost manufacturing hub to a creative megacity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bontje, M.

    2014-01-01

    Since 1980, Shenzhen has grown in a record-breaking pace to the megacity it is today. Initially, Shenzhen’s growth was based on low-cost mass industrial production. In recent years, however, the Shenzhen city government is trying to modernize and diversify its economy. Shenzhen has embraced the

  5. Modelling and evaluating municipal solid waste management strategies in a mega-city: The case of Ho Chi Minh City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ThiKimOanh, L.; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, J.M.; Buuren, van J.C.L.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Rulkens, W.H.

    2015-01-01

    Ho Chi Minh City is a large city that will become a mega-city in the near future. The city struggles with a rapidly increasing flow of municipal solid waste and a foreseeable scarcity of land to continue landfilling, the main treatment of municipal solid waste up to now. Therefore, additional

  6. Air-quality measurements in mega-cities: Focus on gaseous organic and particulate pollutants and comparison between two contrasted cities, Paris and Beijing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gros, V.; Sciare, J.; Yu, T.

    2007-01-01

    The rapid and important development of large urban areas ('mega-cities'), especially in developing countries, causes and will cause serious air-quality problems. Pollutant measurements in these cities help to characterize the chemical nature and the quantity of these pollutants and to constrain air-quality models. This paper focuses on measurements of volatile organic compounds and aerosols that have an important impact on air quality. We present a brief review on existing measurements and experimental strategies in mega-cities and then we show results from recent measurement campaigns that took place in two contrasted mega-cities: Paris and Beijing. (authors)

  7. Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Feng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2 emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km2 or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO2 emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as  ∼  1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010. Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km and high-resolution (1.3 km simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution fossil fuel CO2 emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO2 emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO2 emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO2 concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO2 fields reflect the coverage of

  8. Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl, David L.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Kram, Tom; de Vries, Bert J M; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Better water demand projections are needed in order to better assess water scarcity. The focus in this paper is on non-agricultural water demand, as this is the fastest-growing and least well-modelled demand component. We describe an end use-oriented model for future water demand in the electricity,

  9. Survey of Models on Demand, Customer Base-Line and Demand Response and Their Relationships in the Power Market

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas

    2012-01-01

    The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...

  10. Growing interest, growing programs, growing pains: Successfully customizing public outreach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadkins, M.; Hill, C.; Hirsch, T.

    1994-01-01

    Since the mid-1980's, the Institutional and External Affairs staff of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) has developed, coordinated, and maintained various public outreach programs to carry out the YMP's open door policy of keeping local communities informed. However, public involvement first requires public knowledge and, therefore, various information programs have been established over the past few years. First came the speakers bureau program, then the exhibits and science centers; and then came the tours and school district educational programs. All these programs were geared toward teaching the mainstream general public about the YMP and issues related to things nuclear. Today, the YMP outreach programs are established and known and the demand from the public has seen a shift. Over 150 top scientists and staff from around the country who have come to work at the YMP have joined the outreach participant pool to speak to the public not only about Yucca Mountain, but about their areas of expertise as well. For this reason, the public has realized a great opportunity for a general science and engineering education resource -- the YMP staff themselves. In a panel discussion, open-quotes Trust and credibility: The central issueclose quotes, proceedings of the National Conference on Risk Communication, it was shown that university professors and science teachers were among the most trusted individuals in terms of public perception and that government staff and contractors the least trusted. However, when you utilize the core educated knowledge of a YMP scientist in order to teach general science and math, you have, to some extent, placed that individual in an educational role and thus increased trust. The YMP scientists enjoy talking about their general science knowledge and we have found that the public likes to hear about it too

  11. Meeting increased demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Andrew

    2004-07-01

    New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number

  12. Growing Safflower in Utah

    OpenAIRE

    Pace, M. G.; Israelsen, C. E.; Creech, E.; Allen, N.

    2015-01-01

    This fact sheet provides information on growing safflower in Utah. It has become popular on dryland farms in rotation with winter wheat. Safflower seed provides three products, oil, meal, and birdseed.

  13. Long-term changes of tropospheric NO2 over megacities derived from multiple satellite instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hilboll

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Tropospheric NO2, a key pollutant in particular in cities, has been measured from space since the mid-1990s by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. These data provide a unique global long-term dataset of tropospheric pollution. However, the observations differ in spatial resolution, local time of measurement, viewing geometry, and other details. All these factors can severely impact the retrieved NO2 columns. In this study, we present three ways to account for instrumental differences in trend analyses of the NO2 columns derived from satellite measurements, while preserving the individual instruments' spatial resolutions. For combining measurements from GOME and SCIAMACHY into one consistent time series, we develop a method to explicitly account for the instruments' difference in ground pixel size (40 × 320 km2 vs. 30 × 60 km2. This is especially important when analysing NO2 changes over small, localised sources like, e.g. megacities. The method is based on spatial averaging of the measured earthshine spectra and extraction of a spatial pattern of the resolution effect. Furthermore, two empirical corrections, which summarise all instrumental differences by including instrument-dependent offsets in a fitted trend function, are developed. These methods are applied to data from GOME and SCIAMACHY separately, to the combined time series, and to an extended dataset comprising also GOME-2 and OMI measurements. All approaches show consistent trends of tropospheric NO2 for a selection of areas on both regional and city scales, for the first time allowing consistent trend analysis of the full time series at high spatial resolution. Compared to previous studies, the longer study period leads to significantly reduced uncertainties. We show that measured tropospheric NO2 columns have been strongly increasing over China, the Middle East, and India, with values over east-central China tripling from 1996 to 2011. All parts of the developed world

  14. A comparative study of the organic matter in PM 2.5 from three Chinese megacities in three different climatic zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jialiang; Hu, Min; Chan, Chak K.; Lau, P. S.; Fang, Ming; He, Lingyan; Tang, Xiaoyan

    Organic matter in PM 2.5 collected in 2002 and 2003 from three megacities in different climatic zones in China, Beijing (40°N), Shanghai (31°N) and Guangzhou (23°N), was characterized. The focus was on solvent-extractable organic compounds (SEOC), which were used to identify the influences of geography, variation of the season, sources and transport on the concentration and distribution of these homologues. Organic carbon, elemental carbon, and water-soluble organic carbon concentrations were analyzed only for the substantiation of the SEOC findings. Analysis of the fossil fuel residues and the plant wax components in n-alkanes, PAHs, fatty acids and n-alkanols allowed the identification of anthropogenic (coal and petroleum combustion processes, and kitchen emissions) and biogenic (vegetation and microbial) sources. The influence of temperature on the distribution of the SEOC was exemplified by the negative correlation between the relative concentrations of the semivolatile homologues (alkanes and PAHs) and ambient temperature. This is attributable to gas-particle partitioning. Indirectly, ambient temperature dictates the type of vegetation that can grow in a geographical zone. This would influence the distribution of the plant waxes, and finally, it plays a role in the aerosol loading due to energy usage.

  15. Ambiental volatile organic compounds in the megacity of São Paulo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Droprinchinski Martins

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to characterize the composition of the main urban air organic compounds in the megacity of Sao Paulo, analysis of samples collected during the winter of 2003 downtown was carried out. The samplings were performed on the roof of a building in the commercial center of São Paulo. Hydrocarbons and carbonyls compounds were collected on August 4, 5 and 6. Comparing to previous data, the concentration of hydrocarbons presented no decrease in the concentration, except for the aldehydes, which decreased when compared to previous data. Among the HCs species analyzed, the highest concentrations observed were those of toluene (7.5 ± 3.4 ppbv, n-decane (3.2 ± 2.0 ppbv, benzene (2.7 ± 1.4 ppbv and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene (2.2 ± 1.5 ppbv.

  16. Mega-city and great earthquake distributions: the search of basic links.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Boris; Sasorova, Elena; Domanski, Andrej

    2013-04-01

    The ever-increasing population density in large metropolitan cities near major active faults (e.g. Tokyo, Lisbon, San-Francisco, et al.) and recent catastrophic earthquakes in Japan, Indonesia and Haiti (loss of life more 500000), highlight the need for searching of causal relationships between distributions of earthquake epicenters and mega-cities at the Earth [1]. The latitudinal distribution of mega-cities calculated with using Internet data base, discovers a curious peculiarity: the density of large city numbers, related to 10-degree latitude interval, demonstrates two maximums in middle latitudes (±30-40°) on both sides of the equator. These maximums are separated by clean local minimum near equator, and such objects (mega-cities) are practically absent in the high latitudes. In the last two decades, it was shown [2, 3, 4] that a seismic activity of the Earth is described by the similar bimodal latitudinal distribution. The similarity between bimodal distributions for geophysical phenomena and mega-city locations attracts common attention. The peak values in the both distributions (near ±35°) correspond to location of well-known "critical latitudes" at the planet. These latitudes were determined [5], as the lines of intersection of a sphere and a spheroid of equal volume (±35°15'52″). Increasing of the angular velocity of a celestial body rotation leads to growth of oblateness of planet, and vice versa, the oblateness is decreasing with reducing of velocity of rotation. So, well-known effect of the Earth rotation instability leads to small pulsations of the geoid. In the critical latitudes, the geoid radius-vector is equal to the radius of sphere. The zones of near critical latitudes are characterized by high density of faults in the Earth crust and manifestation of some geological peculiarities (hot spot distribution, large ore deposit distribution, et al.). The active faults existence has led to an emanation of depth fluids, which created the good

  17. Growing population causes of unemployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    At the March, 1995, International Meeting on Population and Social Development in Copenhagen, during the session on unemployment, underemployment, and population it was stated that the problem of employment was the extent to which a nation's labor supply was not matched by labor demand or job opportunities. Population was thus a supply factor, and the country's economic situation was a demand factor. The demographic variables that were considered important in the supply of labor were: a) the size and rate of growth of the population, which was a function of the birth rate, the death rate, and migration; and b) the age structure of the population, which was also a product of the rate of growth of the population and its distribution. An imbalance between the supply of labor and the demand for it gave rise to unemployment and underemployment. The vicious cycle generated by a high dependency burden associated with a young age-structure led to low savings and investments, which in turn led to low economic growth and a low standard of living. This produced high fertility rates, which in turn heightened the dependency burden perpetuating the cycle. This vicious cycle could be broken at only two points: at the high fertility stage, primarily by introducing family planning programs; and at the stage of low economic growth, by adopting policies to accelerate economic growth. To be successful, however, both actions had to be pursued simultaneously. Numerous participants emphasized the global nature of the issue of unemployment and underemployment; the effects of international competition and restrictive trade policies on employment opportunities. The growing disparity between North and South had created a social injustice between countries. Several participants called for more humane policies that favored democracy and promoted human development, and asked for assistance to help create an enabling environment for social and economic development.

  18. Regional-to-Urban Enviro-HIRLAM Downscaling for Meteorological and Chemical Patterns over Chinese Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Gonzalez-Aparicio, Iratxe; Amstrup, Bjarne; Baklanov, Alexander; Yang, Xiaohua; Nielsen, Kristian

    2015-04-01

    Due to strong economic growth in the past decades, air pollution became a serious problem in megacities and major industrial agglomerations of China. So, information on air quality in these urbanized areas is important for population. In particular, the metropolitan areas of Shanghai, Beijing, and Pearl River Delta are well known as main regions with serious air pollution issues. One of the aims of the EU FP7 MarcoPolo project is to improve existing regional-meso-urban/city scale air quality forecasts using improved emission inventories and to validate modelling results using satellite and ground-based measurements. The Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) adapted for the Shanghai region of China is applied for forecasting. The model is urbanized using the Building Effects Parameterization module, which describes different types of urban districts such as industrial commercial, city center, high density and residential with its own characteristics. For sensitivity studies, the model was run in downscaling chain from regional-to-urban scales at subsequent horizontal resolutions of 15-5-2.5 km for selected dates with elevated pollution levels and unfavorable meteorological conditions. For these dates, the effects of urbanization are analyzed for atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition, and chemical transformations. The evaluation of formation and development of meteorological and chemical/aerosol patterns due to influence of the urban areas is performed. The impact of selected (in a model domain) megacities of China is estimated on regional-to-urban scales, as well as relationship between air pollution and meteorology are studied.

  19. Growing Plants and Minds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presser, Ashley Lewis; Kamdar, Danae; Vidiksis, Regan; Goldstein, Marion; Dominguez, Ximena; Orr, Jillian

    2017-01-01

    Many preschool classrooms explore plant growth. However, because many plants take a long time to grow, it is often hard to facilitate engagement in some practices (i.e., since change is typically not observable from one day to another, children often forget their prior predictions or cannot recall what plants looked like days or weeks earlier).…

  20. Growing Backyard Textiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Eleanor Hall

    1975-01-01

    For those involved in creative work with textiles, the degree of control possible in texture, finish, and color of fiber by growing and processing one's own (perhaps with students' help) can make the experience rewarding. The author describes the processes for flax and nettles and gives tips on necessary equipment. (Author/AJ)

  1. How to Grow Old

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bertrand Russell

    2008-01-01

    <正>1. In spite of the title, this article will really be on how not to grow old, which, at my time of life, is a much more important subject. My first advice would be to choose your ancestors carefully. Although both my parents died young, I have done well in this respect as regards my other ancestors. My maternal grandfather, it is true, was cut off in the flower of his youth at the age of sixty-seven,

  2. Characteristics of PM2.5 speciation in representative megacities and across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, F.; Tan, J.; Zhao, Q.; Du, Z.; He, K.; Ma, Y.; Duan, F.; Chen, G.; Zhao, Q.

    2011-06-01

    Based on PM2.5 chemical data sets from literature and from our surface observations, chemical species and reconstructed speciation of PM2.5 in representative Chinese megacities and across China were compared to draw insights into the characteristics of PM2.5 speciation. PM2.5 mass concentrations and speciation compositions varied substantially over geographical regions in China. Near six-fold variations in average PM2.5 concentrations (34.0-193.4 μg m-3) across China were found with high PM2.5 levels (>100 μg m-3) appearing in the cities in the northern and western regions and low levels (transport of the secondary aerosols, thus more intensive characteristic of "complex atmospheric pollution" compared to the western region. Organic matter had significant contribution to PM2.5 over all the sites. Organic matter plus sulfate, nitrate, and ammonia accounted for 53-90 % of PM2.5 mass across China. PM2.5 speciation across China was also characterized by high content of crustal material, which was usually at more than ~10 μg m-3 level or shared ~10 % of PM2.5 mass in urban areas, due to transported desert dust and locally induced dust. In four representative megacities (i.e. Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou), PM2.5 mass and major components (except sulfate) were at higher levels than those in US continental east by one order of magnitude. Distinct differences in nitrate and sulfate levels and their mass ratio [NO3-]/[SO42-] imply that mobile sources are likely more important in Guangzhou, whereas in Chongqing it is stationary (coal combustion) sources. The observed intra-city variations in PM2.5 mass and speciation indicate that both local emissions and regional transportation contributed significantly to high fine particle loadings in Beijing, while local contribution likely played a predominant role in Chongqing. During the ten-year period from 1999 through 2008 in urban Beijing, both the sum of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonia and [NO3-]/[SO42-] ratio

  3. Seasonal variability and source apportionment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs in the Paris megacity (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Baudic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Within the framework of air quality studies at the megacity scale, highly time-resolved volatile organic compound (C2–C8 measurements were performed in downtown Paris (urban background sites from January to November 2010. This unique dataset included non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs and aromatic/oxygenated species (OVOCs measured by a GC-FID (gas chromatograph with a flame ionization detector and a PTR-MS (proton transfer reaction – mass spectrometer, respectively. This study presents the seasonal variability of atmospheric VOCs being monitored in the French megacity and their various associated emission sources. Clear seasonal and diurnal patterns differed from one VOC to another as the result of their different origins and the influence of environmental parameters (solar radiation, temperature. Source apportionment (SA was comprehensively conducted using a multivariate mathematical receptor modeling. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's positive matrix factorization tool (US EPA, PMF was used to apportion and quantify ambient VOC concentrations into six different sources. The modeled source profiles were identified from near-field observations (measurements from three distinct emission sources: inside a highway tunnel, at a fireplace and from a domestic gas flue, hence with a specific focus on road traffic, wood-burning activities and natural gas emissions and hydrocarbon profiles reported in the literature. The reconstructed VOC sources were cross validated using independent tracers such as inorganic gases (NO, NO2, CO, black carbon (BC and meteorological data (temperature. The largest contributors to the predicted VOC concentrations were traffic-related activities (including motor vehicle exhaust, 15 % of the total mass on the annual average, and evaporative sources, 10 %, with the remaining emissions from natural gas and background (23 %, solvent use (20 %, wood-burning (18 % and a biogenic source (15 %. An

  4. Typical types and formation mechanisms of haze in an Eastern Asia megacity, Shanghai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Huang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive aerosol and gases campaign was performed at Shanghai in the Yangtze River Delta region over Eastern China from late March to early June 2009. This study provided a complementary picture of typical haze types and the formation mechanisms in megacities over China by using a synergy of ground-based monitoring, satellite and lidar observations. During the whole study period, several extreme low visibility periods were observed with distinct characteristics, and three typical haze types were identified, i.e. secondary inorganic pollution, dust, and biomass burning. Sulfate, nitrate and ammonium accounted for a major part of PM2.5 mass during the secondary inorganic pollution, and the good correlation between SO2/NOx/CO and PM2.5 indicated that coal burning and vehicle emission were the major sources. Large-scale regions with high AOD (aerosol optical depths and low Ångström exponent were detected by remote-sensing observation during the dust pollution episode, and this episode corresponded to coarse particles rich in mineral components such as Al and Ca contributing 76.8% to TSP. The relatively low Ca/Al ratio of 0.75 along with the air mass backward trajectory analysis suggested the dust source was from Gobi Desert. Typical tracers for biomass burning from satellite observation (column CO and HCHO and from ground measurement (CO, particulate K+, OC, and EC were greatly enhanced during the biomass burning pollution episode. The exclusive linear correlation between CO and PM2.5 corroborated that organic aerosol dominated aerosol chemistry during biomass burning, and the high concentration and enrichment degree of arsenic (As could be also partly derived from biomass burning. Aerosol optical profile observed by lidar demonstrated that aerosol was mainly constrained below the boundary layer and comprised of spheric aerosol (depolarization ratio <5% during the secondary

  5. Photochemically consumed hydrocarbons and their relationship with ozone formation in two megacities of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, C.; Wang, J.; Liu, S.; Shao, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, T.; Shiu, C.; Lai, C.

    2010-12-01

    Two on-site continuous measurements of ozone and its precursors in two megacities of China were carried out in an urban site of Beijing and a suburban site near Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to estimate precursor consumption and to assess its relationship with oxidant (O3+NO2) formation level. An observation-based method (OBM) with the precursor consumption concept was adopted to assess the relationship between oxidant production and amounts of photochemically consumed non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). In this approach, the ratio of ethylbenzene to m,p-xylenes was used to estimate the degree of photochemical processing, as well as the amounts of photochemically consumed NMHCs by reacting with OH. By trying to correlate the observed oxidant with the observed NMHC concentration, the two areas both revealed nearly no to low correlation between them. However, it existed fair to good correlations (R2=0.68 for Beijing, 0.53 for PRD) between the observed oxidant level and the degree of photochemical processing (ethylbenzene/m,p-xylenes). Furthermore, after taking the approach of consumption to estimate the consumed amounts of NMHCs, an interesting finding reveals that the definite correlation existed between the observed oxidant level and the total consumed NMHCs. The good correlations (R2=0.83 for Beijing, 0.81 for PRD) implies that the ambient oxidant level correlated to the amount of consumed NMHCs. The results of the two megacities in China by using the OBM with the precursor consumption concept can provide another pathway to explore the relationship between photochemically produced oxidant and consumed precursors, and will be helpful to validate model results and to reduce uncertainty of model predictions. However, the method has some room for uncertainty, as injection of fresh precursor emissions and additional boundary ozone involved, etc. could affect the estimation of consumed NMHCs and observed oxidant levels. Assistance of approaches in assessing the

  6. Smart Buildings and Demand Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Ghatikar, Girish

    2011-11-01

    Advances in communications and control technology, the strengthening of the Internet, and the growing appreciation of the urgency to reduce demand side energy use are motivating the development of improvements in both energy efficiency and demand response (DR) systems in buildings. This paper provides a framework linking continuous energy management and continuous communications for automated demand response (Auto-DR) in various times scales. We provide a set of concepts for monitoring and controls linked to standards and procedures such as Open Automation Demand Response Communication Standards (OpenADR). Basic building energy science and control issues in this approach begin with key building components, systems, end-uses and whole building energy performance metrics. The paper presents a framework about when energy is used, levels of services by energy using systems, granularity of control, and speed of telemetry. DR, when defined as a discrete event, requires a different set of building service levels than daily operations. We provide examples of lessons from DR case studies and links to energy efficiency.

  7. Coal exports still growing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blain, M.

    1998-01-01

    It is shown that the swings and roundabouts of the Asian economic shake out and Australian dollar devaluation are starting to work their way through the Australian export coal market. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, at this stage the results are not proving to be as bad as were at first predicted by some market watchers. Export revenue and tonnages are up 12% for the year to July 98. Coal exports totaling $9.5 billion left Australia's shores in the 12 months confirming coal as Australia's single largest export revenue earner. Sales volumes in the present financial year are still increasing, the market being driven by steadily increasing Asian demand for steaming coal from places like Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines

  8. Residential electricity demand in Singapore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, B.W.; Goh, T.N.; Liu, X.Q.

    1992-01-01

    Residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased at a rate of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 1990. Estimates of the long-run income and price elasticities are 1.0 and -0.35, respectively. The energy-conservation campaigns that have been launched are found to have marginal effects on consumption. A statistical analysis shows that the consumption is sensitive to small changes in climatic variables, particularly the temperature, which is closely linked to the growing diffusion of electric appliances for environmental controls. There has been a temporal increase in the ownership levels of appliances associated with increasing household incomes. However, other factors were involved since the ownership levels would also increase over time after the elimination of the income effect. A large part of the future growth in electricity demand will arise from the growing need for air-conditioning, which will lead to increasingly large seasonal variations in electricity use. (author)

  9. World oil supply and demand'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

  10. The PM2.5 threshold for aerosol extinction in the Beijing megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Lingbin; Xin, Jinyuan; Liu, Zirui; Zhang, Kequan; Tang, Guiqian; Zhang, Wenyu; Wang, Yuesi

    2017-10-01

    Particulate pollution has remained at a high level in the megacity of Beijing in the past decade. The PM2.5, PM10, aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent(α), and PM2.5/PM10 ratio (the proportion of PM2.5 in PM10) in Beijing were 70±6 μg m-3, 128±6 μg m-3, 0.57 ± 0.05, 1.10 ± 0.08, 45 ± 4%, respectively, from 2005 to 2014. The annual means of PM concentration, AOD, α, and PM2.5/PM10 ratio decreased slightly during this decade, meanwhile PM concentration increased in the winter. Furthermore, we found there were thresholds of PM2.5 concentration for aerosol extinction. When the PM concentration was lower than a certain threshold, AOD decreased quickly with the decline of PM concentration. To make the improvement of the particle pollution more noticeable, the PM concentration should be controlled under the threshold. The annual averaged threshold is 63 μg m-3, and the threshold values reached the maximum of 74 μg m-3 in spring, ranged from 54 to 56 μg m-3 in the three other seasons. The threshold values ranged from 55 to 77 μg m-3 under other relevant factors, including air masses directions and relative humidity.

  11. MAX-DOAS aerosol and trace gases measurements in megacities in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xin [Institut fuer Energie- und Klimaforschung, Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany); College of Environmental Science and Engineering Peking University, Beijing (China); Brauers, Theo [Institut fuer Energie- und Klimaforschung, Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany); Shao, Min [College of Environmental Science and Engineering Peking University, Beijing (China)

    2011-07-01

    Multi Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAXDOAS) is a new remote sensing technique to measure atmospheric trace gases. Compared to other areas in the world, the atmospheric observations in megacities in China are rather limited. We present MAX-DOAS measurements at four sites in Beijing and Guangzhou in 2006 and 2008. At each site, the scattered sunlight was recorded at 7 elevation angles for about 1 months. Using the zenith spectrum as reference, the Differential Slant Column Densities (DSCDs) of HCHO, CHOCHO, O{sub 4} and NO{sub 2} at offaxis viewing geometries were derived from the DOAS fit. These DSCDs were simulated using a backward Monte Carlo radiative transfer model. The aerosol and trace gas profiles were defined by 3 parameters: the integrated quantities (T), the height of the surface layer (H), and the fraction of T below H. We fitted the modeled values to the measured values at the corresponding viewing geometries by varying the 3 parameters. The aerosol extinction and the boundary layer height were successfully retrieved from the measured O{sub 4} DSCDs as well as ground level concentrations of CHOCHO, HCHO, and NO{sub 2}, the latter being compared to simultaneous in-situ measurements.

  12. Characteristics of atmospheric ammonia and its relationship with vehicle emissions in a megacity in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruyu; Ye, Xingnan; Liu, Yuxuan; Li, Haowen; Yang, Xin; Chen, Jianmin; Gao, Wei; Yin, Zi

    2018-06-01

    Atmospheric ammonia plays an important role in haze formation in East China. In this study, long-term measurements of NH3 concentrations were implemented at urban, suburban, and tunnel sites in Shanghai, the largest city in East China. The average monthly ammonia concentrations at the urban site varied from 3.7 ppb to 14.5 ppb and exhibited the highest levels in summer and lowest levels in winter, indicating that the biological emissions and agriculture in the surrounding areas are important contributors. The suburban NH3 levels were significantly higher in autumn compared to those at the urban site, indicating the important contribution of agricultural activities. Regardless of the season, the difference of NH3 concentrations between the tunnel and urban sites remained almost constant. On average, the tunnel NH3 level was three times higher than that of the nearby urban site, indicating strong vehicle NH3 emissions in the tunnel. The tunnel NH3 levels on weekdays were comparable to those on weekends, a result that was in agreement with the daily average traffic volume. It was estimated that the vehicle emissions contributed 12.6-24.6% of the atmospheric NH3 in the urban area and 3.8-7.5% for the whole area of Shanghai. Our results suggest that vehicle NH3 emissions should be considered, although agricultural emissions are still more important for mitigating severe haze pollution during wintertime in the megacities of China.

  13. Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

    2015-03-01

    The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

  14. Shifting the urban heat island clock in a megacity: a case study of Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xuan; Jeong, Su-Jong

    2018-01-01

    With increasing levels of urbanization in the near future, understanding the impact of urbanization on urban heat islands (UHIs) is critical to adapting to regional climate and environmental changes. However, our understanding of the UHI effect relies mainly on its intensity or magnitude. The present study evaluates the impact of urbanization on UHI duration changes by comparing three stations with different rates of urbanization, including highly developed and developing urban areas throughout Hong Kong, from 1990-2015. Results show that the 26 year average UHI intensity in highly urbanized regions is much higher than that in developing areas, and the 26 year average of UHI duration is similar. Over the past 25 years, however, UHI duration has increased only in developing urban areas, from 13.59-17.47 hours. Both earlier UHI starting and later UHI ending times concurrently contribute to the UHI effect being experienced for a longer duration. The differences in UHI duration change between the two areas are supported by population and by night light changes from space. Increasing night light, which suggests enhancements in the economic infrastructure, occurred only in the developing urban areas. Our results suggest that changes in UHI duration should be included in an assessment of regional climate change as well as in urban planning in a megacity.

  15. Investigation on the trace elemental profile of sewage workers in Kolkata, an Indian megacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajlaxmi Basu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. Environmental pollution has become a global health risk. Exposure to pollutants at the work place, i.e. occupational exposure, is one of the areas that need immediate attention. The civic drainage workers are exposed to pollutants present in the wastewater they handle and most of them are toxic heavy metals. Exposure to such pollutants may be a health hazard, since it can lead to the imbalance in nutrient elements status.§Design and Methods. In the present study, profiling of trace elements in the blood of drainage worker population from an Indian megacity, Kolkata, was carried out by energy dispersive x-ray fluorescence (EDXRF and compared with the control group population of the same area. Results. The elements detected by EDXRF spectrometry include P, S, Cl, K, Fe, Cu, Zn, Se, Br, and Rb. By using ANOVA with 5% significance level, we observed significant alterations in the trace elements status, iron over loading, selenium deficiency, and in Cu-Zn ratio. Gender specific variations within the same population were also observed. Conclusions. The results indicate that the drainage workers have altered elemental profile in comparison to that of control population.

  16. A Distributed, Open Source based Data Infrastructure for the Megacities Carbon Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, R.; Crichton, D. J.; Duren, R. M.; Salameh, P.; Sparks, A.; Sloop, C.

    2014-12-01

    With the goal of assessing the anthropogenic carbon-emission impact of urban centers on local and global climates, the Megacities Carbon Project has been building carbon-monitoring capabilities for the past two years around the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Hundreds of megabytes (MB) of data are generated daily, and distributed among data centers local to the sensor networks involved. We automatically pull this remotely generated data into a centralized data infrastructure local to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), seeking to (1) provide collaboration opportunities on the data, and (2) generate refined data products through community-requested centralized data processing pipelines. The goal of this informatics effort is to ensure near real-time access to generated data products across the Los Angeles carbon monitoring sensor network and meet the data analysis needs of carbon researchers through the production of customized products. We discuss the goals of the informatics effort, its uniqueness, and assess its effectiveness in providing an insight into the carbon sphere of Los Angeles.

  17. Can butterflies cope with city life? Butterfly diversity in a young megacity in southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sing, Kong-Wah; Dong, Hui; Wang, Wen-Zhi; Wilson, John-James

    2016-09-01

    During 30 years of unprecedented urbanization, plant diversity in Shenzhen, a young megacity in southern China, has increased dramatically. Although strongly associated with plant diversity, butterfly diversity generally declines with urbanization, but this has not been investigated in Shenzhen. Considering the speed of urbanization in Shenzhen and the large number of city parks, we investigated butterfly diversity in Shenzhen parks. We measured butterfly species richness in four microhabitats (groves, hedges, flowerbeds, and unmanaged areas) across 10 parks and examined the relationship with three park variables: park age, park size, and distance from the central business district. Butterflies were identified based on wing morphology and DNA barcoding. We collected 1933 butterflies belonging to 74 species from six families; 20% of the species were considered rare. Butterfly species richness showed weak negative correlations with park age and distance from the central business district, but the positive correlation with park size was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Among microhabitat types, highest species richness was recorded in unmanaged areas. Our findings are consistent with others in suggesting that to promote urban butterfly diversity it is necessary to make parks as large as possible and to set aside areas for limited management. In comparison to neighbouring cities, Shenzhen parks have high butterfly diversity.

  18. Atmospheric ammonia and its impacts on regional air quality over the megacity of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shanshan; Nan, Jialiang; Shi, Chanzhen; Fu, Qingyan; Gao, Song; Wang, Dongfang; Cui, Huxiong; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Zhou, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) has great environmental implications due to its important role in ecosystem and global nitrogen cycle, as well as contribution to secondary particle formation. Here, we report long-term continuous measurements of NH3 at different locations (i.e. urban, industrial and rural) in Shanghai, China, which provide an unprecedented portrait of temporal and spatial characteristics of atmospheric NH3 in and around this megacity. In addition to point emission sources, air masses originated from or that have passed over ammonia rich areas, e.g. rural and industrial sites, increase the observed NH3 concentrations inside the urban area of Shanghai. Remarkable high-frequency NH3 variations were measured at the industrial site, indicating instantaneous nearby industrial emission peaks. Additionally, we observed strong positive exponential correlations between NH4+/(NH4++NH3) and sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols, PM2.5 mass concentrations, implying a considerable contribution of gas-to-particle conversion of ammonia to SNA aerosol formation. Lower temperature and higher humidity conditions were found to favor the conversion of gaseous ammonia to particle ammonium, particularly in autumn. Although NH3 is currently not included in China’s emission control policies of air pollution precursors, our results highlight the urgency and importance of monitoring gaseous ammonia and improving its emission inventory in and around Shanghai. PMID:26514559

  19. Growing a market economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.

    1997-09-01

    This report presents a microsimulation model of a transition economy. Transition is defined as the process of moving from a state-enterprise economy to a market economy. The emphasis is on growing a market economy starting from basic microprinciples. The model described in this report extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen, a new agent-based model that is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories on a massively parallel Paragon computer. Aspen is significantly different from traditional models of the economy. Aspen`s emphasis on disequilibrium growth paths, its analysis based on evolution and emergent behavior rather than on a mechanistic view of society, and its use of learning algorithms to simulate the behavior of some agents rather than an assumption of perfect rationality make this model well-suited for analyzing economic variables of interest from transition economies. Preliminary results from several runs of the model are included.

  20. On-Demand Telemetry

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — AFRC has previously investigated the use of Network Based Telemetry. We will be building on that research to enable On-Demand Telemetry. On-Demand Telemetry is a way...

  1. The growing fibroadenoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, Linda M; Sara, Rana

    2015-01-01

    Fibroadenomas (FAs) are the most common tumors of the breast clinically and pathologically in adolescent and young women but may be discovered at any age. With increasing use of core biopsy rather than excision for diagnosis, it is now commonplace to follow these lesions with imaging. To assess the incidence of epithelial abnormalities (atypia, in situ or invasive, ductal or lobular malignancies) in FAs diagnosed by core biopsy and to re-evaluate the management paradigm for any growing FA. A retrospective review of the senior author’s pathology results over 19 years identified 2062 nodular FAs (biopsied by ultrasound or stereotactic guidance). Eighty-three core biopsied FAs were identified which subsequently enlarged. Twelve of 2062 of core biopsied nodules demonstrated atypia, in situ, or invasive malignancy (ductal or lobular) within or adjacent to the FA (0.58%). Eighty-three FAs enlarged and underwent either surgical excision (n = 65), repeat core biopsy (n = 9), or imaging follow-up (n = 9). The incidence of atypia, in situ or invasive malignancy was 0/83 (0%). Two enlarging FAs were subsequently surgically diagnosed as benign phyllodes tumors (PT). Malignancy in or adjacent to a core biopsied FA is rare. The risk of cancer in a growing FA is even rarer; none were present in our series. FAs with abnormal epithelial abnormalities require excision. Otherwise, FAs without epithelial abnormality diagnosed by core biopsy need no specific follow-up considering the negligible incidence of conversion to malignancy. The breast interventionalist must know how to manage discordant pathology results

  2. Money Demand in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Ivars Tillers

    2004-01-01

    The econometric analysis of the demand for broad money in Latvia suggests a stable relationship of money demand. The analysis of parameter exogeneity indicates that the equilibrium adjustment is driven solely by the changes in the amount of money. The demand for money in Latvia is characterised by relatively high income elasticity typical for the economy in a monetary expansion phase. Due to stability, close fit of the money demand function and rapid equilibrium adjustment, broad money aggreg...

  3. Domestic demand for petroleum in OPEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakravorty, U.; Fesharaki, F.; Zhou, S.

    2000-01-01

    The literature on OPEC energy policy has focused primarily on its production and export potential. The rapidly increasing domestic demand for petroleum products in OPEC countries has often been ignored. This study estimates domestic demand for petroleum products by the major OPEC economies and forecasts consumption trends under alternative assumptions regarding economic growth and price deregulation. It concludes that product demand is generally price and income inelastic and thus domestic consumption in OPEC will continue to grow rapidly, even if domestic prices are raised closer to world levels in the near future

  4. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  5. Melting ice, growing trade?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Bensassi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR. Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetry and the future evolution of the sea ice cover. Climate model projections of future sea ice conditions throughout the rest of the century suggest that even under the most “aggressive” emission scenario, increases in international trade between Europe and Asia will be very low. The large inter-annual variability of weather and sea ice conditions in the route, the Russian toll imposed for transiting the NSR, together with high insurance costs and scarce loading/unloading opportunities, limit the use of the NSR. We show that even if these obstacles are removed, the duration of the opening of the NSR over the course of the century is not long enough to offer a consequent boost to international trade at the macroeconomic level.

  6. In situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beekmann, M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Drewnick, F.; Sciare, J.; Pandis, S. N.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Crippa, M.; Freutel, F.; Poulain, L.; Ghersi, V.; Rodriguez, E.; Beirle, S.; Zotter, P.; von der Weiden-Reinmüller, S.-L.; Bressi, M.; Fountoukis, C.; Petetin, H.; Szidat, S.; Schneider, J.; Rosso, A.; El Haddad, I.; Megaritis, A.; Zhang, Q. J.; Michoud, V.; Slowik, J. G.; Moukhtar, S.; Kolmonen, P.; Stohl, A.; Eckhardt, S.; Borbon, A.; Gros, V.; Marchand, N.; Jaffrezo, J. L.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Borrmann, S.; Lawrence, M.; Baklanov, A.; Baltensperger, U.

    2015-08-01

    A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70 % of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in situ measurements during short intensive and longer-term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE chemistry transport models. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions constituted less than 20 % in winter and 40 % in summer of carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly small for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e., from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only being partially responsible for its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

  7. In-situ, satellite measurement and model evidence for a~dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris Megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beekmann, M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Drewnick, F.; Sciare, J.; Pandis, S. N.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Crippa, M.; Freutel, F.; Poulain, L.; Ghersi, V.; Rodriguez, E.; Beirle, S.; Zotter, P.; von der Weiden-Reinmüller, S.-L.; Bressi, M.; Fountoukis, C.; Petetin, H.; Szidat, S.; Schneider, J.; Rosso, A.; El Haddad, I.; Megaritis, A.; Zhang, Q. J.; Michoud, V.; Slowik, J. G.; Moukhtar, S.; Kolmonen, P.; Stohl, A.; Eckhardt, S.; Borbon, A.; Gros, V.; Marchand, N.; Jaffrezo, J. L.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Borrmann, S.; Lawrence, M.; Baklanov, A.; Baltensperger, U.

    2015-03-01

    A detailed characterization of air quality in Paris (France), a megacity of more than 10 million inhabitants, during two one month intensive campaigns and from additional one year observations, revealed that about 70% of the fine particulate matter (PM) at urban background is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in-situ measurements during short intensive and longer term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by a comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions contributed less than 20% in winter and 40% in summer to carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly little for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e. from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only controlling part of its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

  8. Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

    2012-06-01

    Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

  9. Industrial water demand management and cleaner production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Processes and systems using water today are being subjected to increasingly stringent environmental regulations on effluents and there is growing demand for fresh water. In Morocco, consumption of water by industries is estimated in 1994 at 1 billion m3, the drinking water constitutes 4%. Water used in the food and drink ...

  10. Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Varentsov

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization leads to distinct meteorological features of urban environments, and one the best-known is the urban heat island (UHI effect. For megacities, these features become mesoscale phenomena (scale ≥ 10 km that are amplified by the tropospheric feedbacks, and have substantial implications on human well-being. For the first time, a three-dimensional statistical description of the megacity-induced meteorological effects extending towards the lower troposphere for summer is acquired on a quasi-climatological timescale (a decade based on high-resolution (1 km simulations for Moscow with the COSMO-CLM model with and without its urban canopy model TERRA_URB. Our results confirm the features from previous observational and modeling studies, including the UHI itself, the cooling effect above established by the cross-over effect, the urban dry/moist islands and the urban breeze circulation. Particularly, the UHI shows a strong diurnal variation in terms of intensity and vertical extent between daytime (≈0.5 K/≈1.5 km and nighttime (>3 K/≈150 m. We have discovered a systematic veering in the downwind shift of the UHI spatial pattern established by the Coriolis effect, and an enhanced stable stratification of the rural surroundings established by the urban plumes further downwind. Finally, extending the analysis to multiple summers demonstrates a substantial increase in summer precipitation (up to +25% over the city center and its leeward side. These urban-caused mesoclimatic effects need to be taken into account in weather and climate services, including the design of future megacities.

  11. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Burrows

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  12. Long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over the Pearl River Delta megacity area in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Seven-year measurements of precipitation, lightning flashes, and visibility from 2000 to 2006 have been analyzed in the Pearl River Delta (PRD region, China, with a focus on the Guangzhou megacity area. Statistical analysis shows that the occurrence of heavy rainfall (>25 mm per day and frequency of lightning strikes are reversely correlated to visibility during this period. To elucidate the effects of aerosols on cloud processes, precipitation, and lightning activity, a cloud resolving – Weather Research and Forecasting (CR-WRF model with a two-moment bulk microphysical scheme is employed to simulate a mesoscale convective system occurring on 28 Match 2009 in the Guangzhou megacity area. The model predicted evolutions of composite radar reflectivity and accumulated precipitation are in agreement with measurements from S-band weather radars and automatic gauge stations. The calculated lightning potential index (LPI exhibits temporal and spatial consistence with lightning flashes recorded by a local lightning detection network. Sensitivity experiments have been performed to reflect aerosol conditions representative of polluted and clean cases. The simulations suggest that precipitation and LPI are enhanced by about 16% and 50%, respectively, under the polluted aerosol condition. Our results suggest that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation (less than 25 mm per day, but enhances heavy precipitation. The responses of hydrometeors and latent heat release to different aerosol loadings reveal the physical mechanism for the precipitation and lightning enhancement in the Guangzhou megacity area, showing more efficient mixed phase processes and intensified convection under the polluted aerosol condition.

  13. Regional disparity and cost-effective SO2 pollution control in China: A case study in 5 mega-cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanada, Momoe; Dong, Liang; Fujita, Tsuyoshi; Fujii, Minoru; Inoue, Tsuyoshi; Hirano, Yujiro; Togawa, Takuya; Geng, Yong

    2013-01-01

    With rapid development, increasing sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission becomes a key environmental issue in China. To respond to this challenge, the Chinese government established a top-down scheme to reduce its SO 2 emissions. However, regional disparity and the associated cost differences brought uncertainties to the policy effectiveness and efficiency. Few studies focus on this field. Therefore, this study tries to fill such a gap by investigating the differences of SO 2 emissions, reduction potential, and cost-effectiveness through use of the GAINS-China model in five mega-cities in China, namely, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Hong Kong. A scenario analysis approach is employed, focusing on two technologies named flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and limestone injection (LINJ). Results demonstrated that a large SO 2 reduction potential exists, as well as a great disparity, among the five mega-cities. Chongqing had the largest reduction potential with lowest unit cost, while Beijng and Hong Kong showed the lowest reduction potential with higher unit cost. In Beijing and Shanghai, FGD and LINJ in the power generation sector had the larger reduction potential with the highest cost-effectiveness. However, in Chongqing, the industry sectors also had large reduction potentials. Finally, appropriate SO 2 control strategies and policies are raised by considering the local realities. - Highlights: • The cost-effectiveness of SO 2 control policy was analyzed in five mega-cities in China. • Reduction potential and cost-effectiveness were closely linked to regional disparity. • Beijing and Hong Kong showed lower reduction potential and higher marginal reduction cost. • Chongqing showed the largest reduction potential and the lowest marginal reduction cost

  14. Electricity supply and demand analysis in electric system of Uruguay 2000-2007 period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This article is about the following topics: energy analysis, production and use, supply and demand, energy consumption evolution, energy sources, energy demand by economic sector between years 2000-2007, energy range, energy growing rate, demanding maximum power, growing maximum rate, exported and imported energy.

  15. Growing Galaxies Gently

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    New observations from ESO's Very Large Telescope have, for the first time, provided direct evidence that young galaxies can grow by sucking in the cool gas around them and using it as fuel for the formation of many new stars. In the first few billion years after the Big Bang the mass of a typical galaxy increased dramatically and understanding why this happened is one of the hottest problems in modern astrophysics. The results appear in the 14 October issue of the journal Nature. The first galaxies formed well before the Universe was one billion years old and were much smaller than the giant systems - including the Milky Way - that we see today. So somehow the average galaxy size has increased as the Universe has evolved. Galaxies often collide and then merge to form larger systems and this process is certainly an important growth mechanism. However, an additional, gentler way has been proposed. A European team of astronomers has used ESO's Very Large Telescope to test this very different idea - that young galaxies can also grow by sucking in cool streams of the hydrogen and helium gas that filled the early Universe and forming new stars from this primitive material. Just as a commercial company can expand either by merging with other companies, or by hiring more staff, young galaxies could perhaps also grow in two different ways - by merging with other galaxies or by accreting material. The team leader, Giovanni Cresci (Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri) says: "The new results from the VLT are the first direct evidence that the accretion of pristine gas really happened and was enough to fuel vigorous star formation and the growth of massive galaxies in the young Universe." The discovery will have a major impact on our understanding of the evolution of the Universe from the Big Bang to the present day. Theories of galaxy formation and evolution may have to be re-written. The group began by selecting three very distant galaxies to see if they could find evidence

  16. Observation of regional air pollutant transport between the megacity Beijing and the North China Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Megacities have strong interactions with the surrounding regions through transport of air pollutants. It has been frequently addressed that the air quality of Beijing is influenced by the influx of air pollutants from the North China Plain (NCP. Estimations of air pollutant cross-boundary transport between Beijing and the NCP are important for air quality management. However, evaluation of cross-boundary transport using long-term observations is very limited. Using the observational results of the gaseous pollutants SO2, NO, NO2, O3, and CO from August 2006 to October 2008 at the Yufa site, a cross-boundary site between the megacity Beijing and the NCP, together with meteorological parameters, we explored a method for evaluating the transport flux intensities at Yufa, as part of the “Campaign of Air Quality Research in Beijing and Surrounding Region 2006–2008” (CAREBeijing 2006–2008. The hourly mean ± SD (median concentration of SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, Ox, and CO was 15 ± 16 (9 ppb, 12 ± 25 (3 ppb, 24 ± 19 (20 ppb, 36 ± 39 (23 ppb, 28 ± 27 (21 ppb, 52 ± 24 (45 ppb, and 1.6 ± 1.4 (1.2 ppm during the observation period, respectively. The bivariate polar plots showed the dependence of pollutant concentrations on both wind speed and wind direction, and thus inferred their dominant transport directions. Surface flux intensity calculations further demonstrated the regional transport influence of Beijing and the NCP on Yufa. The net surface transport flux intensity (mean ± SD of SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, Ox, and CO was 6.2 ± 89.5, −4.3 ± 29.5, −0.6 ± 72.3, −4.9 ± 93.0, 14.7 ± 187.8, 14.8 ± 234.9, and 70 ± 2830 µg s−1 m−2 during the observation period, respectively. For SO2, CO, O3, and Ox the surface flux intensities from the NCP to Yufa surpassed those from Beijing to Yufa in all seasons except winter, with the strongest net fluxes largely

  17. Water resources for urban water and food security: the case of megacity Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanham, Davy; Gawlik, Bernd; Bidoglio, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    The extent to which urban dwellers consume resources is key on the path to reaching global SDGs. One of these resources is water, which is consumed in a direct and indirect way by city inhabitants, to achieve water and food security within city borders. In this study, we quantify the water resources required to provide these two essential securities for megacity Hong Kong. During the last years, this city has made large investments to make its urban water supply system more water efficient and sustainable. As such, its municipal water abstraction - often defined as direct water use - has decreased from 355 litres per capita per day (l/cap/d) in 2005 to 326 l/cap/d in 2013. Due to its political history, Hong Kong is unique in the world in data availability on urban food consumption. It is therefore the ideal case study to show typical urban food consumption behaviour and its related indirect water use. The current average diet in Hong Kong is very different to the average Chinese diet. It is characterised by a high intake of water intensive products like animal products and sugar, leading to a food related indirect water use or water footprint (WFcons) of 4727 l/cap/d. According to recommendations from the Chinese Nutrition Society for a healthy diet, the intake of some product groups should be increased (vegetables and fruit) and of other product groups reduced (sugar, crop oils, meat and animal fats). This would result in a reduction of the WFcons of 40% to 2852 l/cap/d. Especially the reduced intake of meat (including offals) from currently 126 kg per capita per year (kg/cap/yr) to the recommended value 27 kg/cap/yr would result in a substantial WFcons reduction. Meat consumption in Hong Kong is extremely high. A pesco-vegetarian diet would result in a reduction of 49% (to 2398 l/cap/d) and a vegetarian diet in a 53% (to 2224 l/cap/d) reduction. Hong Kong citizens can thus save a lot of water by looking at their indirect water use, through a change in their diet

  18. Diesel-related hydrocarbons can dominate gas phase reactive carbon in megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Dunmore

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Hydrocarbons are key precursors to two priority air pollutants, ozone and particulate matter. Those with two to seven carbons have historically been straightforward to observe and have been successfully reduced in many developed cities through air quality policy interventions. Longer chain hydrocarbons released from diesel vehicles are not considered explicitly as part of air quality strategies and there are few direct measurements of their gaseous abundance in the atmosphere. This study describes the chemically comprehensive and continuous measurements of organic compounds in a developed megacity (London, which demonstrate that on a seasonal median basis, diesel-related hydrocarbons represent only 20–30 % of the total hydrocarbon mixing ratio but comprise more than 50 % of the atmospheric hydrocarbon mass and are a dominant local source of secondary organic aerosols. This study shows for the first time that 60 % of the winter primary hydrocarbon hydroxyl radical reactivity is from diesel-related hydrocarbons and using the maximum incremental reactivity scale, we predict that they contribute up to 50 % of the ozone production potential in London. Comparing real-world urban composition with regulatory emissions inventories in the UK and US highlights a previously unaccounted for, but very significant, under-reporting of diesel-related hydrocarbons; an underestimation of a factor ~4 for C9 species rising to a factor of over 70 for C12 during winter. These observations show that hydrocarbons from diesel vehicles can dominate gas phase reactive carbon in cities with high diesel fleet fractions. Future control of urban particulate matter and ozone in such locations requires a shift in policy focus onto gas phase hydrocarbons released from diesels as this vehicle type continues to displace gasoline world-wide.

  19. Bridging the scales in a eulerian air quality model to assess megacity export of pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siour, G.; Colette, A.; Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Coll, I.; Meleux, F.

    2013-08-01

    In Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs), spatial scale interactions are often represented through off-line coupling between large and small scale models. However, those nested configurations cannot give account of the impact of the local scale on its surroundings. This issue can be critical in areas exposed to air mass recirculation (sea breeze cells) or around regions with sharp pollutant emission gradients (large cities). Such phenomena can still be captured by the mean of adaptive gridding, two-way nesting or using model nudging, but these approaches remain relatively costly. We present here the development and the results of a simple alternative multi-scale approach making use of a horizontal stretched grid, in the Eulerian CTM CHIMERE. This method, called "stretching" or "zooming", consists in the introduction of local zooms in a single chemistry-transport simulation. It allows bridging online the spatial scales from the city (∼1 km resolution) to the continental area (∼50 km resolution). The CHIMERE model was run over a continental European domain, zoomed over the BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) area. We demonstrate that, compared with one-way nesting, the zooming method allows the expression of a significant feedback of the refined domain towards the large scale: around the city cluster of BeNeLuX, NO2 and O3 scores are improved. NO2 variability around BeNeLux is also better accounted for, and the net primary pollutant flux transported back towards BeNeLux is reduced. Although the results could not be validated for ozone over BeNeLux, we show that the zooming approach provides a simple and immediate way to better represent scale interactions within a CTM, and constitutes a useful tool for apprehending the hot topic of megacities within their continental environment.

  20. Ozone production in summer in the megacities of Tianjin and Shanghai, China: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ran

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Rapid economic growth has given rise to a significant increase in ozone precursor emissions in many regions of China, especially in the densely populated North China Plain (NCP and Yangtze River Delta (YRD. Improved understanding of ozone formation in response to different precursor emissions is imperative to address the highly nonlinear ozone problem and to provide a solid scientific basis for efficient ozone abatement in these regions. A comparative study on ozone photochemical production in summer has thus been carried out in the megacities of Tianjin (NCP and Shanghai (YRD. Two intensive field campaigns were carried out respectively at an urban and a suburban site of Tianjin, in addition to routine monitoring of trace gases in Shanghai, providing data sets of surface ozone and its precursors including nitrogen oxides (NOx and various non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs. Ozone pollution in summer was found to be more severe in the Tianjin region than in the Shanghai region, based on either the frequency or the duration of high ozone events. Such differences might be attributed to the large amount of highly reactive NMHCs in Tianjin. Industry related species like light alkenes were of particular importance in both urban and suburban Tianjin, while in Shanghai aromatics dominated. In general, the ozone problem in Shanghai is on an urban scale. Stringent control policies on local emissions would help reduce the occurrence of high ozone concentrations. By contrast, ozone pollution in Tianjin is probably a regional problem. Combined efforts to reduce ozone precursor emissions on a regional scale must be undertaken to bring the ozone problem under control.

  1. Spatio-temporal Variations in on-road CO2 Emissions in the Los Angeles Megacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preeti Rao

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We quantify hourly on-road fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2 emissions at the road segment level for the Los Angeles (LA megacity based on observed traffic data, and characterize emission patterns across space and time. This on-road FFCO2 emissions dataset for LA (from Hestia version 1.0, based on actual traffic volume, provides emissions per vehicle kilometer travelled (VKT—an important metric for greenhouse gas (GHG reductions. We further identify emissions hotpots that can help state and local policy makers plan the most effective GHG reduction strategies. On-road vehicle traffic accounts for half of the FFCO2 emissions in LA, of which 41% is from arterials (intermediate road type. Arterials also have the largest C emissions intensity—FFCO2 per VKT—possibly from high traffic congestion and fleet composition. Non-interstate emissions hotspots (> 419 tC lane-km-1 are equally dominated by arterials and collectors (the lowest road type in terms of FFCO2 emissions though collectors have a higher VKT. These hotspots occur in densely populated areas and developed landuse classes, largely in LA (67% and Orange (18% counties, and provide specific targets for emissions reduction efforts. The estimated uncertainties for interstate, arterial and collector emissions per road length are ± 2.1, ± 0.5 and ± 18.0%, respectively. Our overall estimates compare reasonably well with other products, DARTE and FIVE but with substantial differences in spatial distribution. The method for developing this dataset is easily replicable in other urban landscapes, and represents a powerful tool for carbon cycle science and regional policy makers.

  2. Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and ozone (O3 has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO. This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM2.5 concentration of >10 μg m−3 (WHO guideline and 33% to > 25 μg m−3 (EU directive. We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year, 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year. The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr−1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

  3. Population-level impact of active tuberculosis case finding in an Asian megacity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W Dowdy

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The potential population-level impact of private-sector initiatives for tuberculosis (TB case finding in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. In 2011, the Indus Hospital TB Control Program in Karachi, Pakistan, undertook an aggressive case-finding campaign that doubled notification rates, providing an opportunity to investigate potential population-level effects. METHODS: We constructed an age-structured compartmental model of TB in the intervention area. We fit the model using field and literature data, assuming that TB incidence equaled the estimated nationwide incidence in Pakistan (primary analysis, or 1.5 times greater (high-incidence scenario. We modeled the intervention as an increase in the rate of formal-sector TB diagnosis and evaluated the potential impact of sustaining this rate for five years. RESULTS: In the primary analysis, the five-year intervention averted 24% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 18-30% of five-year cumulative TB cases and 52% (95% UR: 45-57% of cumulative TB deaths. Corresponding reductions in the high-incidence scenario were 12% (95% UR: 8-17% and 27% (95% UR: 21-34%, although the absolute number of lives saved was higher. At the end of five years, TB notification rates in the primary analysis were below their 2010 baseline, incidence had dropped by 45%, and annual mortality had fallen by 72%. About half of the cumulative impact on incidence and mortality could be achieved with a one-year intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained, multifaceted, and innovative approaches to TB case-finding in Asian megacities can have substantial community-wide epidemiological impact.

  4. Seasonal and spatial changes in trace gases over megacities from Aura TES observations: two case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. E. Cady-Pereira

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES is collecting closely spaced observations over 19 megacities. The objective is to obtain measurements that will lead to better understanding of the processes affecting air quality in and around these cities, and to better estimates of the seasonal and interannual variability. We explore the TES measurements of ozone, ammonia, methanol and formic acid collected around the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA and in the vicinity of Lagos (Nigeria. The TES data exhibit seasonal signals that are correlated with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS CO and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD, with in situ measurements in the MCMA and with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-Chem model output in the Lagos area. TES was able to detect an extreme pollution event in the MCMA on 9 April 2013, which is also evident in the in situ data. TES data also show that biomass burning has a greater impact south of the city than in the caldera where Mexico City is located. TES measured enhanced values of the four species over the Gulf of Guinea south of Lagos. Since it observes many cities from the same platform with the same instrument and applies the same retrieval algorithms, TES data provide a very useful tool for easily comparing air quality measures of two or more cities. We compare the data from the MCMA and Lagos, and show that, while the MCMA has occasional extreme pollution events, Lagos consistently has higher levels of these trace gases.

  5. Particulate matter levels in a South American megacity: the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Jose; Rojas, Jhojan; Norabuena, Magdalena; Molina, Carolina; Toro, Richard A; Leiva-Guzmán, Manuel A

    2017-11-13

    The temporal and spatial trends in the variability of PM 10 and PM 2.5 from 2010 to 2015 in the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru, are studied and interpreted in this work. The mean annual concentrations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 have ranges (averages) of 133-45 μg m -3 (84 μg m -3 ) and 35-16 μg m -3 (26 μg m -3 ) for the monitoring sites under study. In general, the highest annual concentrations are observed in the eastern part of the city, which is a result of the pattern of persistent local winds entering from the coast in a south-southwest direction. Seasonal fluctuations in the particulate matter (PM) concentrations are observed; these can be explained by subsidence thermal inversion. There is also a daytime pattern that corresponds to the peak traffic of a total of 9 million trips a day. The PM 2.5 value is approximately 40% of the PM 10 value. This proportion can be explained by PM 10 re-suspension due to weather conditions. The long-term trends based on the Theil-Sen estimator reveal decreasing PM 10 concentrations on the order of -4.3 and -5.3% year -1 at two stations. For the other stations, no significant trend is observed. The metropolitan area of Lima-Callao is ranked 12th and 16th in terms of PM 10 and PM 2.5 , respectively, out of 39 megacities. The annual World Health Organization thresholds and national air quality standards are exceeded. A large fraction of the Lima population is exposed to PM concentrations that exceed protection thresholds. Hence, the development of pollution control and reduction measures is paramount.

  6. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  7. GHG and black carbon emission inventories from Mezquital Valley: The main energy provider for Mexico Megacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montelongo-Reyes, M M; Otazo-Sánchez, E M; Romo-Gómez, C; Gordillo-Martínez, A J; Galindo-Castillo, E

    2015-09-15

    The greenhouse gases and black carbon emission inventory from IPCC key category Energy was accomplished for the Mezquital Valley, one of the most polluted regions in Mexico, as the Mexico City wastewater have been continuously used in agricultural irrigation for more than a hundred years. In addition, thermoelectric, refinery, cement and chemistry industries are concentrated in the southern part of the valley, near Mexico City. Several studies have reported air, soil, and water pollution data and its main sources for the region. Paradoxically, these sources contaminate the valley, but boosted its economic development. Nevertheless, no research has been done concerning GHG emissions, or climate change assessment. This paper reports inventories performed by the 1996 IPCC methodology for the baseline year 2005. Fuel consumption data were derived from priority sectors such as electricity generation, refineries, manufacturing & cement industries, transportation, and residential use. The total CO2 emission result was 13,894.9 Gg, which constituted three-quarters of Hidalgo statewide energy category. The principal CO2 sources were energy transformation (69%) and manufacturing (19%). Total black carbon emissions were estimated by a bottom-up method at 0.66 Gg. The principal contributor was on-road transportation (37%), followed by firewood residential consumption (26%) and cocked brick manufactures (22%). Non-CO2 gas emissions were also significant, particularly SO2 (255.9 Gg), which accounts for 80% of the whole Hidalgo State emissions. Results demonstrated the negative environmental impact on Mezquital Valley, caused by its role as a Megacity secondary fuel and electricity provider, as well as by the presence of several cement industries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Role of meteorology in seasonality of air pollution in megacity Delhi, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guttikunda, Sarath K; Gurjar, Bhola R

    2012-05-01

    The winters in megacity Delhi are harsh, smoggy, foggy, and highly polluted. The pollution levels are approximately two to three times those monitored in the summer months, and the severity is felt not only in the health department but also in the transportation department, with regular delays at airport operations and series of minor and major accidents across the road corridors. The impacts felt across the city are both manmade (due to the fuel burning) and natural (due to the meteorological setting), and it is hard to distinguish their respective proportions. Over the last decade, the city has gained from timely interventions to control pollution, and yet, the pollution levels are as bad as the previous year, especially for the fine particulates, the most harmful of the criteria pollutants, with a daily 2009 average of 80 to 100 μg/m(3). In this paper, the role of meteorology is studied using a Lagrangian model called Atmospheric Transport Modeling System in tracer mode to better understand the seasonality of pollution in Delhi. A clear conclusion is that irrespective of constant emissions over each month, the estimated tracer concentrations are invariably 40% to 80% higher in the winter months (November, December, and January) and 10% to 60% lower in the summer months (May, June, and July), when compared to annual average for that year. Along with monitoring and source apportionment studies, this paper presents a way to communicate complex physical characteristics of atmospheric modeling in simplistic manner and to further elaborate linkages between local meteorology and pollution.

  9. In situ formation and spatial variability of particle number concentration in a European megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikridas, M.; Sciare, J.; Freutel, F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; von der Weiden-Reinmüller, S.-L.; Borbon, A.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Merkel, M.; Crippa, M.; Kostenidou, E.; Psichoudaki, M.; Hildebrandt, L.; Engelhart, G. J.; Petäjä, T.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Drewnick, F.; Baltensperger, U.; Wiedensohler, A.; Kulmala, M.; Beekmann, M.; Pandis, S. N.

    2015-09-01

    Ambient particle number size distributions were measured in Paris, France, during summer (1-31 July 2009) and winter (15 January to 15 February 2010) at three fixed ground sites and using two mobile laboratories and one airplane. The campaigns were part of the Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation (MEGAPOLI) project. New particle formation (NPF) was observed only during summer on approximately 50 % of the campaign days, assisted by the low condensation sink (about 10.7 ± 5.9 × 10-3 s-1). NPF events inside the Paris plume were also observed at 600 m altitude onboard an aircraft simultaneously with regional events identified on the ground. Increased particle number concentrations were measured aloft also outside of the Paris plume at the same altitude, and were attributed to NPF. The Paris plume was identified, based on increased particle number and black carbon concentration, up to 200 km away from the Paris center during summer. The number concentration of particles with diameters exceeding 2.5 nm measured on the surface at the Paris center was on average 6.9 ± 8.7 × 104 and 12.1 ± 8.6 × 104 cm-3 during summer and winter, respectively, and was found to decrease exponentially with distance from Paris. However, further than 30 km from the city center, the particle number concentration at the surface was similar during both campaigns. During summer, one suburban site in the NE was not significantly affected by Paris emissions due to higher background number concentrations, while the particle number concentration at the second suburban site in the SW increased by a factor of 3 when it was downwind of Paris.

  10. Energy demand and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A

    1981-09-01

    During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.

  11. Innovation and Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Esben Sloth

    2007-01-01

    the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

  12. PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Yu. Sulimov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

  13. Divers of Passenger Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Wittmer, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    -Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries

  14. Incremental health expenditure and lost days of normal activity for individuals with mental disorders: results from the São Paulo Megacity Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavegatto Filho, Alexandre Dias Porto; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Campino, Antonio Carlos Coelho; Malik, Ana Maria; Viana, Maria Carmen; Andrade, Laura Helena

    2015-08-05

    With the recent increase in the prevalence of mental disorders in developing countries, there is a growing interest in the study of its consequences. We examined the association of depression, anxiety and any mental disorders with incremental health expenditure, i.e. the linear increase in health expenditure associated with mental disorders, and lost days of normal activity. We analyzed the results from a representative sample survey of residents of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (n = 2,920; São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey), part of the World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative, coordinated by the World Health Organization and performed in 28 countries. The instrument used for obtaining the individual results, including the assessment of mental disorders, was the WMH version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 (WMH-CIDI 3.0) that generates psychiatric diagnoses according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria. Statistical analyses were performed by multilevel generalized least squares (GLS) regression models. Sociodemographic determinants such as income, age, education and marital status were included as controls. Depression, anxiety and any mental disorders were consistently associated with both incremental health expenditure and missing days of normal activity. Depression was associated with an incremental annual expenditure of R$308.28 (95% CI: R$194.05-R$422.50), or US$252.48 in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Anxiety and any mental disorders were associated with a lower, but also statistically significant, incremental annual expenditure (R$177.82, 95% CI: 79.68-275.97; and R$180.52, 95% CI: 91.13-269.92, or US$145.64 and US$147.85 in terms of PPP, respectively). Most of the incremental health costs associated with mental disorders came from medications. Depression was independently associated with higher incremental health expenditure than the two most prevalent chronic

  15. Public’s Health Risk Awareness on Urban Air Pollution in Chinese Megacities: The Cases of Shanghai, Wuhan and Nanchang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojun; Zhu, Hui; Hu, Yongxin; Feng, Sha; Chu, Yuanyuan; Wu, Yanyan; Wang, Chiyu; Zhang, Yuxuan; Yuan, Zhaokang; Lu, Yuanan

    2016-01-01

    This study assessed the public’s health risk awareness of urban air pollution triggered by three megacities in China, and the data are the responses from a sample size of 3868 megacity inhabitants from Shanghai, Nanchang and Wuhan. Descriptive analyses were used to summarize the respondents’ demographics, perceived health risks from air pollution and sources of health-related knowledge on urban air pollution. Chi-square tests were used to examine if participants’ demographics were associated with participant’s general attitudes towards current air quality and the three perceived highest health risks due to urban air pollution. We found low rate of satisfaction of current urban air quality as well as poor knowledge of air pollution related indicator. Participants’ gender, age and travel experience were found to be associated with the satisfaction of current air quality. The knowledge of air pollution related indicator was significantly affected by respondents’ education, monthly income, health status, and sites of study. As many as 46.23% of the participants expressed their feelings of anxiety when exposed to polluted air, especially females, older adults and those with poor health conditions. Most participants believed that coughs/colds, eye problems and skin allergies were the three highest health risks due to urban air pollution based on public education through television/radio, internet and newspaper/magazine. Further public health education is needed to improve public awareness of air pollution and its effects. PMID:27571088

  16. Influence of risk factors and past events on flood resilience in coastal megacities: Comparative analysis of NYC and Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Siyuan; Yin, Jie; Lin, Ning; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2018-01-01

    Coastal flood protection measures have been widely implemented to improve flood resilience. However, protection levels vary among coastal megacities globally. This study compares the distinct flood protection standards for two coastal megacities, New York City and Shanghai, and investigates potential influences such as risk factors and past flood events. Extreme value analysis reveals that, compared to NYC, Shanghai faces a significantly higher flood hazard. Flood inundation analysis indicates that Shanghai has a higher exposure to extreme flooding. Meanwhile, Shanghai's urban development, population, and economy have increased much faster than NYC's over the last three decades. These risk factors provide part of the explanation for the implementation of a relatively high level of protection (e.g. reinforced concrete sea-wall designed for a 200-year flood return level) in Shanghai and low protection (e.g. vertical brick and stone walls and sand dunes) in NYC. However, individual extreme flood events (typhoons in 1962, 1974, and 1981) seem to have had a greater impact on flood protection decision-making in Shanghai, while NYC responded significantly less to past events (with the exception of Hurricane Sandy). Climate change, sea level rise, and ongoing coastal development are rapidly changing the hazard and risk calculus for both cities and both would benefit from a more systematic and dynamic approach to coastal protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Source apportionment of the particulate PAHs at Seoul, Korea: impact of long range transport to a megacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. Lee

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Northeast Asia including China, Korea, and Japan is one of the world's largest fossil fuel consumption regions. Seoul, Korea, is a megacity in Northeast Asia. Its emissions of air pollutants can affect the region, and in turn it is also affected by regional emissions. To understand the extent of these influences, major sources of ambient particulate PAHs in Seoul were identified and quantified based on measurements made between August 2002 and December 2003. The chemical mass balance (CMB model was applied. Seven major emission sources were identified based on the emission data in Seoul and Northeast Asia: Gasoline and diesel vehicles, residential coal use, coke ovens, coal power plants, biomass burning, and natural gas (NG combustion. The major sources of particulate PAHs in Seoul during the whole measurement period were gasoline and diesel vehicles, together accounted for 31% of the measured particulate PAHs levels. However, the source contributions showed distinct daily and seasonal variations. High contributions of biomass burning and coal (residential and coke oven were observed in fall and winter, accounting for 63% and 82% of the total concentration of PAHs, respectively. Since these sources were not strong in and around Seoul, they are likely to be related to transport from outside of Seoul, from China and/or North Korea. This implies that the air quality in a mega-city such as Seoul can be influenced by the long range transport of air pollutants such as PAHs.

  18. Uranium supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spriggs, M J

    1976-01-01

    Papers were presented on the pattern of uranium production in South Africa; Australian uranium--will it ever become available; North American uranium resources, policies, prospects, and pricing; economic and political environment of the uranium mining industry; alternative sources of uranium supply; whither North American demand for uranium; and uranium demand and security of supply--a consumer's point of view. (LK)

  19. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  20. The installed nuclear capacity is expected to grow by 70% by 2030 according to WNA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2011-01-01

    The installed nuclear capacity is expected to grow by 70% in the next 20 years and to reach 614 GW in 2030 according to the World National Association (WNA). The main demand will come from China, India, Korea and the United-Kingdom. This growth will imply a 70% growth in the demand for uranium. Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan that own the biggest reserves of uranium will benefit from this growing demand. (A.C.)

  1. Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

  2. Characteristics and trends of China's oil demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Haibo

    2010-09-15

    Based on historical analysis of Chinese oil consumption from 1980 to 2008, the author develops an econometric modeling - Medium and Long-term Chinese Oil Demand Forecast Model. Results shows that, Chinese oil demand will be 632 MT in 2020 without consideration of substitutions, and the annual growth rate will be 4.2%, much slower than before. The demand ratio of diesel to gasoline will decline, while kerosene demand will grow faster. If new energy vehicles (NGV and electric vehicles, etc.) develop rapidly and industrial fuel-oil demand is substituted effectively, about 23 million tons of oil could be saved.

  3. Asian oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    2005-01-01

    This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

  4. Chemically-resolved aerosol volatility measurements from two megacity field studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Huffman

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The volatilities of different chemical species in ambient aerosols are important but remain poorly characterized. The coupling of a recently developed rapid temperature-stepping thermodenuder (TD, operated in the range 54–230°C with a High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS during field studies in two polluted megacities has enabled the first direct characterization of chemically-resolved urban particle volatility. Measurements in Riverside, CA and Mexico City are generally consistent and show ambient nitrate as having the highest volatility of any AMS standard aerosol species while sulfate showed the lowest volatility. Total organic aerosol (OA showed volatility intermediate between nitrate and sulfate, with an evaporation rate of 0.6%·K−1 near ambient temperature, although OA dominates the residual species at the highest temperatures. Different types of OA were characterized with marker ions, diurnal cycles, and positive matrix factorization (PMF and show significant differences in volatility. Reduced hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA, a surrogate for primary OA, POA, oxygenated OA (OOA, a surrogate for secondary OA, SOA, and biomass-burning OA (BBOA separated with PMF were all determined to be semi-volatile. The most aged OOA-1 and its dominant ion, CO2+, consistently exhibited the lowest volatility, with HOA, BBOA, and associated ions for each among the highest. The similar or higher volatility of HOA/POA compared to OOA/SOA contradicts the current representations of OA volatility in most atmospheric models and has important implications for aerosol growth and lifetime. A new technique using the AMS background signal was demonstrated to quantify the fraction of species up to four orders-of-magnitude less volatile than those detectable in the MS mode, which for OA represent ~5% of the non-refractory (NR OA signal. Our results strongly imply that all OA types should be considered

  5. GHG and black carbon emission inventories from Mezquital Valley: The main energy provider for Mexico Megacity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montelongo-Reyes, M.M.; Otazo-Sánchez, E.M.; Romo-Gómez, C.; Gordillo-Martínez, A.J.; Galindo-Castillo, E.

    2015-09-15

    The greenhouse gases and black carbon emission inventory from IPCC key category Energy was accomplished for the Mezquital Valley, one of the most polluted regions in Mexico, as the Mexico City wastewater have been continuously used in agricultural irrigation for more than a hundred years. In addition, thermoelectric, refinery, cement and chemistry industries are concentrated in the southern part of the valley, near Mexico City. Several studies have reported air, soil, and water pollution data and its main sources for the region. Paradoxically, these sources contaminate the valley, but boosted its economic development. Nevertheless, no research has been done concerning GHG emissions, or climate change assessment. This paper reports inventories performed by the 1996 IPCC methodology for the baseline year 2005. Fuel consumption data were derived from priority sectors such as electricity generation, refineries, manufacturing & cement industries, transportation, and residential use. The total CO{sub 2} emission result was 13,894.9 Gg, which constituted three-quarters of Hidalgo statewide energy category. The principal CO{sub 2} sources were energy transformation (69%) and manufacturing (19%). Total black carbon emissions were estimated by a bottom-up method at 0.66 Gg. The principal contributor was on-road transportation (37%), followed by firewood residential consumption (26%) and cocked brick manufactures (22%). Non-CO{sub 2} gas emissions were also significant, particularly SO{sub 2} (255.9 Gg), which accounts for 80% of the whole Hidalgo State emissions. Results demonstrated the negative environmental impact on Mezquital Valley, caused by its role as a Megacity secondary fuel and electricity provider, as well as by the presence of several cement industries. - Highlights: • First GHG & black carbon inventory for Mezquital Valley: Mexico City energy supplier • Energy industries caused the largest CO{sub 2} and SO{sub 2} emissions from residual fuel oil. • Diesel

  6. Source apportionment of particulate matter in Chinese megacities: the implication for emission control strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ru-Jin; Elser, Miriam; Wang, Qiyuan Wang; Bozzetti, Carlo; Wolf, Robert; Wang, Yichen; Ni, Haiyan; Wang, Meng; Ho, Kin-Fai; Han, Yongming; Dällenbach, Kaspar; Canonaco, Francesco; Slowik, Jay; El Haddad, Imad; Baltensperger, Urs; Cao, Junji; Prévôt, André S. H.

    2015-04-01

    The rapid industrialization and urbanization in developing countries has led to an increase in air pollution, along a similar trajectory to that previously experienced by the developed nations. In China, particulate pollution is a serious environmental problem that is influencing air quality, regional and global climates, and human health. A quantitative understanding of these effects has proven extremely challenging due to spatial and temporal variability in the sources of aerosols and their precursors, the complexity of particle composition, and uncertainties associated with the atmospheric aging of existing particles (Pöschl 2005; Hallquist et al., 2009; Huang et al., 2014). Nowadays the average PM2.5 concentrations in China are approximately one to two orders of magnitude higher than those observed in urban areas in the US and European countries (Cao 2012). This has forced the Chinese government to announce its first national environmental standard for PM2.5 in 2012 and to make highly ambitious plans for emission control. The Chinese aim to reduce the PM2.5 concentrations by up to 25% of the 2012 levels by 2017, backed by 277 billion investments from the central government. To achieve this ambitious aim, a better understanding of the aerosol composition, sources, and atmospheric processing is required. In this study, we present the results from intensive field measurement campaigns carried out in Chinese megacities in 2013/2014. The sources of PM2.5 and the organic aerosol (OA) were investigated by applying the multi-linear engine (ME-2) receptor model (Canonaco et al., 2013) to a comprehensive dataset. Primary sources including vehicle emissions, biomass burning, coal burning, and dust-related emissions were identified and quantified. The contributions from secondary aerosol formation processes to total PM2.5 mass and OA mass were evaluated. Detailed results will be presented and discussed. References Cao, J. J. (2012) J. Earth Environ., 3, 1030

  7. Meteorology and air-quality in a mega-city: application to Tehran, Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malakooti, Hossein

    2010-01-01

    The influence of a mega-city on the atmospheric boundary layer and surface conditions was examined in the complex-terrain, semi-arid Tehran region using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) during a high pollution period. In addition, model sensitivity studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of the urban canopy and urban soil model 'SM2-U (3D)' parameterization on the meteorological fields and ground level air pollutant concentrations in this area. The topographic flows and urban effects were found to play important roles in modulating the wind and temperature fields, and the urbanized areas exerted important local effects on the boundary layer meteorology. An emission inventory of air pollutants and an inventory of heat generation were developed and updated for 2005 in this work. Emissions from on-road motor vehicles constitute a major portion of the emission inventory and play the most important role in terms of contributions of air pollutants to the atmosphere in Tehran. By using a detailed methodology, we calculated spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic heat flux (Qf) for Tehran during 2005. Wintertime Qf is larger than summertime Qf, which reflects the importance of heating emissions from buildings and traffic during cold and warm period respectively. Different urban parameterizations were used as a tool to investigate the modifications induced by the presence of an urban area in the area of interest. It was found that, for local meteorological simulations, the drag-force approach coupled with an urban soil model (DA-SM2-U) is preferable to the roughness approach (RA-SLAB). The comparisons indicated that the most important features of the wind, temperature and turbulent fields in urban areas are well reproduced by the DA-SM2-U configuration with the anthropogenic heat flux being taken into account (i.e., 'DA-SM2-U Qf: On' option). This

  8. Scattering and absorption characteristics of aerosols at an urban megacity over IGB: Implications to radiative forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, A. K.; Bisht, D. S.; Singh, Sachchidanand; Kishore, N.; Soni, V. K.; Singh, Siddhartha; Tiwari, S.

    2018-06-01

    Aerosol scattering and absorption characteristics were investigated at an urban megacity Delhi in the western Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) during the period from October 2011 to September 2012 using different in-situ measurements. The scattering coefficient (σsp at 550 nm) varied between 71 and 3014 Mm-1 (mean 710 ± 615 Mm-1) during the entire study period, which was about ten times higher than the absorption coefficient (σabs at 550 nm 67 ± 40 Mm-1). Seasonally, σsp and σabs were substantially higher during the winter/post-monsoon periods, which also gave rise to single scattering albedo (SSA) by 5%. The magnitude of SSA (at 550 nm) varied between 0.81 and 0.94 (mean: 0.89 ± 0.05). Further, the magnitude of scattering Ångström exponent (SAE) and back-scattering Ångström exponent (BAE) showed a wide range from -1.20 to 1.57 and -1.13 to 0.87, respectively which suggests large variability in aerosol sizes and emission sources. Relatively higher aerosol backscatter fraction (b at 550 nm) during the monsoon (0.25 ± 0.10) suggests more inhomogeneous scattering, associated with the coarser dust particles. However, lower value of b during winter (0.13 ± 0.02) is associated with more isotropic scattering due to dominance of smaller size particles. This is further confirmed with the estimated asymmetry parameter (AP at 550 nm), which exhibits opposite trend with b. The aerosol optical parameters were used in a radiative transfer model to estimate aerosol radiative forcing. A mean radiative forcing of -61 ± 22 W m-2 (ranging from -111 to -40 W m-2) was observed at the surface and 42 ± 24 W m-2 (ranging from 18 to 87 W m-2) into the atmosphere, which can give rise to the mean atmospheric heating rate of 1.18 K day-1.

  9. Uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-05-01

    This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

  10. On energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.

    1977-01-01

    Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

  11. Urban climate and energy demand interaction in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasilova, E. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.

    2017-11-01

    The regional and urban climate change in Northern Eurasia is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of human habitats situated in boreal and temperate areas. The half of primary energy is spent for space heating even under quite a mild European climate. Implementation of the district heating in urban areas is currently seen as one of the key conditions of sustainable development. The clear understanding of main problems of the urban climateenergy demand interaction is crucial for both small towns and megacities. The specific features of the urban energy systems in Finland, Russia and China under the changing climate conditions were studied. Regional manifestations of the climate change were examined. The climate projections were established for urban regions of the Northern Eurasia. It was shown that the climate warming is likely to continue intensively there. History and actual development trends were discussed for the urban district heating systems in Russia, China and Finland. Common challenges linked with the climate change have been identified for the considered areas. Adaptation possibilities were discussed taking into account climate-energy interactions.

  12. Disaggregated export demand of Malaysia: evidence from the electronics industry

    OpenAIRE

    Koi Nyen Wong

    2008-01-01

    This study estimates the determinants of foreign demand for Malaysia's top five electronics exports by SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) product groups from 1990 to 2001. Cointegration results indicate a unique long-run relationship between export demand for electronic products and relative prices and foreign income. Both the estimated long-run income and price elasticities of export demand are greater than 1, conforming to a pattern found in most fast-growing economies and i...

  13. DEMAND FOR MALAYSIA'S EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM THE ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Koi Nyen Wong

    2006-01-01

    This study estimates the determinants of foreign demand for Malaysia's top five electronics exports by SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) product groups from 1990 to 2001. Cointegration results indicate a unique long-run relationship between export demand for electronic products and relative prices and foreign income. Both the estimated long-run income and price elasticities of export demand are greater than 1, conforming to a pattern found in most fast-growing economies and i...

  14. Sizewell: UK power demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The Sizewell Inquiry was about whether the next power stations to be built in the UK should be nuclear or coal and, if nuclear, PWRs or AGRs. During the period of the Inquiry forecasts of demand for electricity were low. Now, however, it seems that the forecast demand is much increased. This uncertainty in demand and the wide regional variations are examined in some detail. Facts and figures on electricity sales (area by area) are presented. Also the minutes of supply lost per consumer per year. These show that security of supply is also a problem. It is also shown that the way electricity is used has changed. Whilst electricity generation has been changing to large-scale, centralised power stations the demand patterns may make smaller scale, quickly-constructed units more sensible. The questions considered at the Sizewell Inquiry may, indeed, no longer be the right ones. (UK)

  15. A demanding market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, M.

    1997-01-01

    The article relates to the oil and natural gas market, and it gives a survey of proved reserves at the end of 1996 worldwide. The long term trend of increasing world energy demand has seen a major rise during 1996 when global consumption grew by 3%. But worldwide demand, excluding the Former Soviet Union, shows this figure increasing further to 3.7% for the whole of last year according to statistics. 3 figs

  16. Maximum power demand cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biondi, L.

    1998-01-01

    The charging for a service is a supplier's remuneration for the expenses incurred in providing it. There are currently two charges for electricity: consumption and maximum demand. While no problem arises about the former, the issue is more complicated for the latter and the analysis in this article tends to show that the annual charge for maximum demand arbitrarily discriminates among consumer groups, to the disadvantage of some [it

  17. Growing container seedlings: Three considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kas Dumroese; Thomas D. Landis

    2015-01-01

    The science of growing reforestation and conservation plants in containers has continually evolved, and three simple observations may greatly improve seedling quality. First, retaining stock in its original container for more than one growing season should be avoided. Second, strongly taprooted species now being grown as bareroot stock may be good candidates...

  18. Growing Sugarcane for Bioenergy – Effects on the Soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2010-01-01

    An increasing area of sugarcane is being growing for the production of bioenergy. Sugarcane puts a high demands on the soil due to the use of heavy machinery and because large amounts of nutrients are removed with the harvest. Biocides and inorganic fertilizers introduces risks of groundwater

  19. Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

    2012-02-01

    Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  20. Model elucidating the sources and formation mechanisms of severe haze pollution over Northeast mega-city cluster in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ting; Gbaguidi, Alex; Yan, Pingzhong; Zhang, Wending; Zhu, Lili; Yao, Xuefeng; Wang, Zifa; Chen, Hui

    2017-11-01

    Recent studies on regional haze pollution over China come up in general with strong variability of main causes of heavy polluted episodes, in linkage with local specificities, sources and pollution characteristics. This paper therefore aims at elucidating the main specific sources and formation mechanisms of observed strong haze pollution episodes over 1-15 November 2015 in Northeast region considered as one of biggest megacity clusters in China. The Northeast China mega-city cluster, including Heilong Jiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces, is adjacent to Russia in the north, Mongolian at the west, North Korea at east, and representing key geographical location in the regional and transnational air pollution issues in China due to the presence of heavy industries and intense economic activities. The present study, based on air quality monitoring, remote sensing satellite data and sensitivity experiments carried on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS), quantitatively assesses the impact of meteorological conditions and potential contributions from regional chemical transport, intensive energy combustion, illegal emission and biomass burning emissions to PM 2.5 concentration variation. The results indicate strong inversion occurrence at lower atmosphere with weak near-surface wind speed and high relative humidity, leading to PM 2.5 concentration increase of about 30-50%. Intensive energy combustion (plausibly for heating activities) and illegal emission also significantly enhance the overall PM 2.5 accumulation by 100-200 μg m -3 (60-70% increase), against 75-100 μg m -3 from the biomass burning under the northeast-southwest transport pathway, corresponding to a contribution of 10-20% to PM 2.5 concentration increase. Obviously, stagnant meteorological conditions, energy combustion, illegal emission and biomass burning are main drivers of strong haze formation and spatial distribution over Northeast China megacity cluster. In clear, much

  1. Ambient levels and temporal variations of PM2.5 and PM10 at a residential site in the mega-city, Nanjing, in the western Yangtze River Delta, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Guo F; Yuan, Si Y; Xie, Yu N; Xia, Si J; Li, Li; Yao, Yu K; Qiao, Yue Z; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Qiu Y; Ding, Ai J; Li, Bin; Wu, Hai S

    2014-01-01

    The deteriorating air quality in eastern China including the Yangtze River Delta is attracting growing public concern. In this study, we measured the ambient PM10 and fine PM2.5 in the mega-city, Nanjing at four different times. The 24-h average PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations were 0.033-0.234 and 0.042-0.328 mg/m(3), respectively. The daily PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were 2.9 (2.7-3.2, at 95% confidence interval) and 4.2 (3.8-4.6) times the WHO air quality guidelines of 0.025 mg/m(3) for PM2.5 and 0.050 mg/m(3) for PM10, respectively, which indicated serious air pollution in the city. There was no obvious weekend effect. The highest PM10 pollution occurred in the wintertime, with higher PM2.5 loadings in the winter and summer. PM2.5 was correlated significantly with PM10 and the average mass fraction of PM2.5 in PM10 was about 72.5%. This fraction varied during different sampling periods, with the lowest PM2.5 fraction in the spring but minor differences among the other three seasons.

  2. Perspective on electricity demand beyond 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, O.

    2000-01-01

    Electricity demand has been the fastest growing form of energy use in the OECD for several decades. Historically there have been strong links between national income (gross domestic product), prices and electricity use. If the trends of the past continue, the annual growth rate of electricity demand to 2020 could reach 2% in the OECD and over 4% in developing countries. Although electricity demand is expected to continue the trend of strong growth in the OECD and also in other regions of the world over the coming decades, there is some question in developed countries of the extent to which electricity demand will be moderated by '' saturation ''. That is, will demand growth level off as electricity completes its penetration into most potential applications and equipment becomes more energy efficient? Will commitments to reduce emissions of conventional airborne pollutants and carbon dioxide increase the cost of electricity generation and slow electricity's demand growth? Or, working in the opposite direction, will new end-uses continue to drive electricity's increasing share of final energy consumption? Will lower prices due to electricity market reform have an impact? This paper explores these issues and provides insights in the likely trends in these areas. (author)

  3. Modelling and evaluating municipal solid waste management strategies in a mega-city: the case of Ho Chi Minh City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ThiKimOanh, Le; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M; van Buuren, Joost Cl; van der Vorst, Jack Gaj; Rulkens, Wim H

    2015-04-01

    Ho Chi Minh City is a large city that will become a mega-city in the near future. The city struggles with a rapidly increasing flow of municipal solid waste and a foreseeable scarcity of land to continue landfilling, the main treatment of municipal solid waste up to now. Therefore, additional municipal solid waste treatment technologies are needed. The objective of this article is to support decision-making towards more sustainable and cost-effective municipal solid waste strategies in developing countries, in particular Vietnam. A quantitative decision support model is developed to optimise the distribution of municipal solid waste from population areas to treatment plants, the treatment technologies and their capacities for the near future given available infrastructure and cost factors. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Automated Recognition of Vegetation and Water Bodies on the Territory of Megacities in Satellite Images of Visible and IR Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozgovoy, Dmitry k.; Hnatushenko, Volodymyr V.; Vasyliev, Volodymyr V.

    2018-04-01

    Vegetation and water bodies are a fundamental element of urban ecosystems, and water mapping is critical for urban and landscape planning and management. A methodology of automated recognition of vegetation and water bodies on the territory of megacities in satellite images of sub-meter spatial resolution of the visible and IR bands is proposed. By processing multispectral images from the satellite SuperView-1A, vector layers of recognized plant and water objects were obtained. Analysis of the results of image processing showed a sufficiently high accuracy of the delineation of the boundaries of recognized objects and a good separation of classes. The developed methodology provides a significant increase of the efficiency and reliability of updating maps of large cities while reducing financial costs. Due to the high degree of automation, the proposed methodology can be implemented in the form of a geo-information web service functioning in the interests of a wide range of public services and commercial institutions.

  5. The impact of attitudes and perceptions on travel mode choice and car ownership in a Chinese megacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Sylvia Y.; Thøgersen, John

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this research is to understand intentions to buy a car and how car-ownership, together with other personal, situational and attitudinal factors, influences travel mode choice in a Chinese megacity. A survey was carried out in Guangzhou, China to examine respondents’ car ownership...... and travel mode perceptions and choices, as well as personal and situational characteristics. A quota sampling procedure was used to select members of three different groups: car owners; no car but planning to buy one in the next 5 years – car intenders; and no car and not planning to buy one. We find...... that car ownership is the most important among included predictors of travel mode choice, which also depend on other personal and situational factors, but only indirectly by attitudinal factors. However, attitudinal factors have a strong impact on the intention to buy a car, while controlling for other...

  6. Recent trends in nitrogen flows with urbanization in the Shanghai megacity and the effects on the water environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chen; Wang, Qinxue; Zou, Chunjing; Hayashi, Yoshitsugu; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2015-03-01

    The objectives of this study are to diagnose and prevent environmental problems that threaten urban sustainability, the impact of changes in lifestyle (diet, domestic sanitation, and motorization), and production style (agriculture, industry, and services) with the rapid urbanization on regional nitrogen (N) flows, and the water environment was quantitatively evaluated. The megacity Shanghai was chosen as a case study to investigate the temporal changes in nitrogen flow during 1980-2008 by a multidisciplinary approach (a field survey, a regional nitrogen mass balance model, input-output analysis, etc.). Although the total potential nitrogen load in Shanghai has decreased in the 2000s and water pollution problems seem to have improved, the problem has shifted and expanded to affect a wider area through the food/product chain and water/air movement. Further effective solutions that aim at material cycles are necessary and have to be implemented on a large scale.

  7. Measurements and Analysis of Black Carbon Aerosols in the Eastern Mediterranean Megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, A.; Ozdemir, H.; Kindap, T.; Demir, G.; Karaca, M.; Khan, M. N.

    2010-12-01

    In a world where at least 50 percent of the population is living in urban environments, air pollution and specifically particulate matter became one of the most critical issues. There have been many studies that focused on mass concentration measurements of PM10 and PM2.5. Recent studies suggest that chemical composition is critical in understanding the effects of PM on health as well as climate. For example, public health studies reveal that, components of the atmospheric aerosols have different impacts on human health. Smith et al. (2009) stated that; on the basis of the 1μg/m3 contrast, the percentage increase in all-cause mortality for PM2.5 was 0.58; sulfate effects were about twice those of PM2.5, and effects of elemental carbon (an indicator of black carbon mass) about ten times greater. To date, many studies and national inventories have been based on particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), and the major greenhouse pollutants, but not speciated emissions, especially in the developing world (Smith et al., 2009; Chow et al., 2010). But air quality standards will soon need to include particulate black carbon (BC), as it directly afffects climate, visibility, and human health. Anthropogenic emissions are increasing dramatically worldwide and recent estimates of global BC emissions range from 8 to 24 Tg (1012 g) per year. In this study, we investigated BC pollution for the first time in Istanbul, Turkey. Istanbul is a megacity of over 15 million inhabitants (OECD, 2008). On-road traffic is also increasing rapidly in the city (over 3 million vehicles on the road). Hence, the city has a potential to be an important source for both local and regional pollution in the Eastern Mediterranean. In our study, an Aethalometer (<0.1μg/m3 sensitivity) was used for continuous and real-time measurements of BC concentration. Measurements were carried out at the selected five different locations throughout the city. 1st and 2nd sites were near high-traffic streets; in the city

  8. Organization of growing random networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krapivsky, P. L.; Redner, S.

    2001-01-01

    The organizational development of growing random networks is investigated. These growing networks are built by adding nodes successively, and linking each to an earlier node of degree k with an attachment probability A k . When A k grows more slowly than linearly with k, the number of nodes with k links, N k (t), decays faster than a power law in k, while for A k growing faster than linearly in k, a single node emerges which connects to nearly all other nodes. When A k is asymptotically linear, N k (t)∼tk -ν , with ν dependent on details of the attachment probability, but in the range 2 -2 power-law tail, where s is the component size. The out component has a typical size of order lnt, and it provides basic insights into the genealogy of the network

  9. World uranium production and demand: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauchid, M.; Mueller Kahle, E.

    1993-01-01

    Despite the growing public concern on the use of nuclear energy, nuclear power generation capacity in the world is expected to follow a modest, but positive growth at least during the next two decades. Uranium production needed to fuel these reactors has been below demand since 1985. The WOCA production figure for 1991 is in the order of 27,000 tonnes U which is 39% below the peak production of 1980. With the exception of Australia, all other countries produced less uranium than in the previous year. It is expected that the production figure for 1992 will shrink even further to about 23,000 tonnes U. In-situ leaching uranium production contributed about 16% to the 1991 world production figure, most of which came from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. With the closing of a number of production facilities the relative contribution of in-situ leaching to the world uranium production is expected to grow. Only about 60% of WOCA's reactor related uranium demand for 1991 was supplied from its own production. The remaining 40% was filled from existing inventories and imports from the Russian Federation and China. The estimated gap between the world uranium production and reactor related demand for 1991 is in the order 10,900 tones U or 19.7%. The cumulative requirement for the world reactor related demand to the year 2010 has been estimated to be about 1,270,000 tonnes U. (author). 6 refs, 10 figs

  10. Demand Modelling in Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chvalina

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the existing possibilities for using Standard Statistical Methods and Artificial Intelligence Methods for a short-term forecast and simulation of demand in the field of telecommunications. The most widespread methods are based on Time Series Analysis. Nowadays, approaches based on Artificial Intelligence Methods, including Neural Networks, are booming. Separate approaches will be used in the study of Demand Modelling in Telecommunications, and the results of these models will be compared with actual guaranteed values. Then we will examine the quality of Neural Network models. 

  11. DemandStat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    DemandStat is an accurate and up-to-date international statistics database dedicated to energy demand, with an unrivaled level of details for powerful market analysis. It provides detailed consumption statistics (30 sectors) on all energies, detailed 2003 data and historical annual data since 1970, frequent data revision and update (2 updates options), 150 data sources gathered and expertized, all data on a single database Consistent and homogeneous statistics, in line with all major data providers (IEA, Eurostat, ADB, OLADE, etc), no ruptures in time-series with easy request building and data analysis and reactive support from data experts. (A.L.B.)

  12. Education on Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boysen, Lis; Hende, Merete

    2015-01-01

    Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de to temat......Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de...

  13. Market-based Demand Response via Residential Plug-in Electric Vehicles in Smart Grids

    OpenAIRE

    Rassaei, Farshad; Soh, Wee-Seng; Chua, Kee-Chaing

    2015-01-01

    Flexibility in power demand, diverse usage patterns and storage capability of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) grow the elasticity of residential electricity demand remarkably. This elasticity can be utilized to form the daily aggregated demand profile and/or alter instantaneous demand of a system wherein a large number of residential PEVs share one electricity retailer or an aggregator. In this paper, we propose a demand response (DR) technique to manage vehicle-to-grid (V2G) enabled PEVs' e...

  14. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari

    2011-01-01

    to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...

  15. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babusiaux, D

    2004-07-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  16. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2006-07-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  17. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2006-01-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  18. The demand for euros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Roelands, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the demand for euros using panel data for 10 euro area countries covering the period from 1999 to 2008. Monetary aggregates are constructed to ensure that money is a national concept by excluding deposits owned by non-residents and including external deposits owned by

  19. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.

    2004-01-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  20. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2004-01-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  1. Textbook Factor Demand Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Joe C.

    1994-01-01

    Maintains that teachers and textbook graphics follow the same basic pattern in illustrating changes in demand curves when product prices increase. Asserts that the use of computer graphics will enable teachers to be more precise in their graphic presentation of price elasticity. (CFR)

  2. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  3. Electricity demand in Tunisia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gam, Imen; Ben Rejeb, Jaleleddine

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the global electricity demand in Tunisia as a function of gross domestic product in constant price, the degree of urbanization, the average annual temperature, and the real electricity price per Kwh. This demand will be examined employing annual data over a period spanning almost thirty one years from 1976 to 2006. A long run relationship between the variables under consideration is determined using the Vector Autoregressive Regression. The empirical results suggest that the electricity demand in Tunisia is sensitive to its past value, any changes in gross domestic product and electricity price. The electricity price effects have a negative impact on long-run electricity consumption. However, the gross domestic product and the past value of electricity consumption have a positive effect. Moreover, the causality test reveals a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption. Our empirical findings are effective to policy makers to maintain the electricity consumption in Tunisia by using the appropriate strategy. - Highlights: ► This paper examined the electricity demand in Tunisia in the long-run. ► The empirical analysis revealed that in the long-run the electricity demand is affected by changes in its past value, GDP in constant price and real electricity price. ► There is a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption, that is to say, that the electricity price causes the consumption. ► Those results suggest that a pricing policy can be an effective instrument to rationalize the electricity consumption in Tunisia in the long-run.

  4. Growing Oppression, Growing Resistance : LGBT Activism and Europeanisation in Macedonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miškovska Kajevska, A.; Bilić, B.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter provides one of the first socio-historical overviews of the LGBT groups in Macedonia and argues that an important impetus for the proliferation of LGBT activities has been the growing state-endorsed homophobia starting from 2008. The homophobic rhetoric of the ruling parties was clearly

  5. On the Use of Hedonic Price Indices to Understand Ecosystem Service Provision from Urban Green Space in Five Latin American Megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ursula Loret de Mola

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Latin American (LA megacities are facing enormous challenges to provide welfare to millions of people who live in them. High rates of urbanization and limited administrative capacity of LA cities to plan and control urban growth have led to a critical deficit of urban green space, and therefore, to sub-optimal outcomes in terms of urban sustainability. This study seeks to assess the possibility of using real estate prices to provide an estimate of the monetary value of the ecosystem services provided by urban green space across five Latin American megacities: Bogota, Buenos Aires, Lima, Mexico City and Santiago de Chile. Using Google Earth images to quantify urban green space and multiple regression analysis, we evaluated the impact of urban green space, crime rates, business density and population density on real estate prices across the five mentioned megacities. In addition, for a subset of the data (Lima and Buenos Aires we analyzed the effects of landscape ecology variables (green space patch size, connectivity, etc. on real estate prices to provide a first insight into how the ecological attributes of urban green space can determine the level of ecosystem service provision in different urban contexts in Latin America. The results show a strong positive relationship between the presence of urban green space and real estate prices. Green space explains 52% of the variability in real estate prices across the five studied megacities. Population density, business density and crime had only minor impacts on real estate prices. Our analysis of the landscape ecology variables in Lima and Buenos Aires also show that the relationship between green space and price is context-specific, which indicates that further research is needed to better understand when and where ecological attributes of green space affect real estate prices so that managers of urban green space in LA cities can optimize ecological configuration to maximize ecosystem service

  6. Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

  7. Toxicity and mutagenicity of exhaust from compressed natural gas: Could this be a clean solution for megacities with mixed-traffic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Avinash K; Ateeq, Bushra; Gupta, Tarun; Singh, Akhilendra P; Pandey, Swaroop K; Sharma, Nikhil; Agarwal, Rashmi A; Gupta, Neeraj K; Sharma, Hemant; Jain, Ayush; Shukla, Pravesh C

    2018-04-20

    Despite intensive research carried out on particulates, correlation between engine-out particulate emissions and adverse health effects is not well understood yet. Particulate emissions hold enormous significance for mega-cities like Delhi that have immense traffic diversity. Entire public transportation system involving taxis, three-wheelers, and buses has been switched from conventional liquid fuels to compressed natural gas (CNG) in the Mega-city of Delhi. In this study, the particulate characterization was carried out on variety of engines including three diesel engines complying with Euro-II, Euro-III and Euro-IV emission norms, one Euro-II gasoline engine and one Euro-IV CNG engine. Physical, chemical and biological characterizations of particulates were performed to assess the particulate toxicity. The mutagenic potential of particulate samples was investigated at different concentrations using two different Salmonella strains, TA98 and TA100 in presence and absence of liver S9 metabolic enzyme fraction. Particulates emitted from diesel and gasoline engines showed higher mutagenicity, while those from CNG engine showed negligible mutagenicity compared to other test fuels and engine configurations. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) adsorbed onto CNG engine particulates were also relatively fewer compared to those from equivalent diesel and gasoline engines. Taken together, our findings indicate that CNG is comparatively safer fuel compared to diesel and gasoline and can offer a cleaner transport energy solution for mega-cities with mixed-traffic conditions, especially in developing countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  9. Household electricity demand profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marszal, Anna Joanna; Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Larsen, Olena Kalyanova

    2016-01-01

    Highlights •A 1-min resolution household electricity load model is presented. •Model adapts a bottom-up approach with single appliance as the main building block. •Load profiles are used to analyse the flexibility potential of household appliances. •Load profiles can be applied in other domains, .......g. building energy simulations. •The demand level of houses with different number of occupants is well captured....

  10. Energy demand patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, L; Schipper, L; Meyers, S; Sathaye, J; Hara, Y

    1984-05-01

    This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.

  11. Migration and Tourism Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno Carlos LEITÃO

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This study considers the relationship between immigration and Portuguese tourism demand for the period 1995-2008, using a dynamic panel data approach. The findings indicate that Portuguese tourism increased significantly during the period in accordance with the values expected for a developed country. The regression results show that income, shock of immigration, population, and geographical distance between Portugal and countries of origin are the main determinants of Portuguese tourism.

  12. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  13. Supply and demand perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trienekens, Pieter

    1999-01-01

    The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come

  14. Diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 in the Paris megacity area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xueref-Remy, Irène; Dieudonné, Elsa; Vuillemin, Cyrille; Lopez, Morgan; Lac, Christine; Schmidt, Martina; Delmotte, Marc; Chevallier, Frédéric; Ravetta, François; Perrussel, Olivier; Ciais, Philippe; Bréon, François-Marie; Broquet, Grégoire; Ramonet, Michel; Spain, T. Gerard; Ampe, Christophe

    2018-03-01

    Most of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions arise from urbanized and industrialized areas. Bottom-up inventories quantify them but with large uncertainties. In 2010-2011, the first atmospheric in situ CO2 measurement network for Paris, the capital of France, began operating with the aim of monitoring the regional atmospheric impact of the emissions coming from this megacity. Five stations sampled air along a northeast-southwest axis that corresponds to the direction of the dominant winds. Two stations are classified as rural (Traînou - TRN; Montgé-en-Goële - MON), two are peri-urban (Gonesse - GON; Gif-sur-Yvette - GIF) and one is urban (EIF, located on top of the Eiffel Tower). In this study, we analyze the diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of the in situ CO2 measurements over nearly 1 year (8 August 2010-13 July 2011). We compare these datasets with remote CO2 measurements made at Mace Head (MHD) on the Atlantic coast of Ireland and support our analysis with atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) observations made in the center of Paris and with both modeled and observed meteorological fields. The average hourly CO2 diurnal cycles observed at the regional stations are mostly driven by the CO2 biospheric cycle, the ABLH cycle and the proximity to urban CO2 emissions. Differences of several µmol mol-1 (ppm) can be observed from one regional site to the other. The more the site is surrounded by urban sources (mostly residential and commercial heating, and traffic), the more the CO2 concentration is elevated, as is the associated variability which reflects the variability of the urban sources. Furthermore, two sites with inlets high above ground level (EIF and TRN) show a phase shift of the CO2 diurnal cycle of a few hours compared to lower sites due to a strong coupling with the boundary layer diurnal cycle. As a consequence, the existence of a CO2 vertical gradient above Paris can be inferred, whose amplitude depends on the time of the day and on

  15. Diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 in the Paris megacity area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Xueref-Remy

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Most of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions arise from urbanized and industrialized areas. Bottom-up inventories quantify them but with large uncertainties. In 2010–2011, the first atmospheric in situ CO2 measurement network for Paris, the capital of France, began operating with the aim of monitoring the regional atmospheric impact of the emissions coming from this megacity. Five stations sampled air along a northeast–southwest axis that corresponds to the direction of the dominant winds. Two stations are classified as rural (Traînou – TRN; Montgé-en-Goële – MON, two are peri-urban (Gonesse – GON; Gif-sur-Yvette – GIF and one is urban (EIF, located on top of the Eiffel Tower. In this study, we analyze the diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of the in situ CO2 measurements over nearly 1 year (8 August 2010–13 July 2011. We compare these datasets with remote CO2 measurements made at Mace Head (MHD on the Atlantic coast of Ireland and support our analysis with atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH observations made in the center of Paris and with both modeled and observed meteorological fields. The average hourly CO2 diurnal cycles observed at the regional stations are mostly driven by the CO2 biospheric cycle, the ABLH cycle and the proximity to urban CO2 emissions. Differences of several µmol mol−1 (ppm can be observed from one regional site to the other. The more the site is surrounded by urban sources (mostly residential and commercial heating, and traffic, the more the CO2 concentration is elevated, as is the associated variability which reflects the variability of the urban sources. Furthermore, two sites with inlets high above ground level (EIF and TRN show a phase shift of the CO2 diurnal cycle of a few hours compared to lower sites due to a strong coupling with the boundary layer diurnal cycle. As a consequence, the existence of a CO2 vertical gradient above Paris can be inferred, whose amplitude depends

  16. Exploring Classroom Hydroponics. Growing Ideas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Gardening Association, Burlington, VT.

    Growing Ideas, the National Gardening Association's series for elementary, middle, and junior high school educators, helps teachers engage students in using plants and gardens as contexts for developing a deeper, richer understanding of the world around them. This volume's focus is on hydroponics. It presents basic hydroponics information along…

  17. Organization of growing random networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krapivsky, P. L.; Redner, S.

    2001-06-01

    The organizational development of growing random networks is investigated. These growing networks are built by adding nodes successively, and linking each to an earlier node of degree k with an attachment probability A{sub k}. When A{sub k} grows more slowly than linearly with k, the number of nodes with k links, N{sub k}(t), decays faster than a power law in k, while for A{sub k} growing faster than linearly in k, a single node emerges which connects to nearly all other nodes. When A{sub k} is asymptotically linear, N{sub k}(t){similar_to}tk{sup {minus}{nu}}, with {nu} dependent on details of the attachment probability, but in the range 2{lt}{nu}{lt}{infinity}. The combined age and degree distribution of nodes shows that old nodes typically have a large degree. There is also a significant correlation in the degrees of neighboring nodes, so that nodes of similar degree are more likely to be connected. The size distributions of the in and out components of the network with respect to a given node{emdash}namely, its {open_quotes}descendants{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}ancestors{close_quotes}{emdash}are also determined. The in component exhibits a robust s{sup {minus}2} power-law tail, where s is the component size. The out component has a typical size of order lnt, and it provides basic insights into the genealogy of the network.

  18. Growing an Emerging Research University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birx, Donald L.; Anderson-Fletcher, Elizabeth; Whitney, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    The emerging research college or university is one of the most formidable resources a region has to reinvent and grow its economy. This paper is the first of two that outlines a process of building research universities that enhance regional technology development and facilitate flexible networks of collaboration and resource sharing. Although the…

  19. Growing Crystals on the Ceiling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christman, Robert A.

    1980-01-01

    Described is a method of studying growing crystals in a classroom utilizing a carrousel projector standing vertically. A saturated salt solution is placed on a slide on the lens of the projector and the heat from the projector causes the water to evaporate and salt to crystalize. (Author/DS)

  20. Agglomerative clustering of growing squares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castermans, Thom; Speckmann, Bettina; Staals, Frank; Verbeek, Kevin; Bender, M.A.; Farach-Colton, M.; Mosteiro, M.A.

    2018-01-01

    We study an agglomerative clustering problem motivated by interactive glyphs in geo-visualization. Consider a set of disjoint square glyphs on an interactive map. When the user zooms out, the glyphs grow in size relative to the map, possibly with different speeds. When two glyphs intersect, we wish

  1. Inferences from growing trees backwards

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Green; Kent A. McDonald

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to illustrate how longitudinal stress wave techniques can be useful in tracking the future quality of a growing tree. Monitoring the quality of selected trees in a plantation forest could provide early input to decisions on the effectiveness of management practices, or future utilization options, for trees in a plantation. There will...

  2. COFFEE GROWING AREAS OF ETHIOPIA"

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    accelerated economic growth, part of which is hoped to be achieved via increased ... at the Fifth International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy held at the United ... Samuel and Ludi: Agricultural commercialisation in coffee growing areas. ... Ethiopia produces and exports one of the best fighland coffees in the world.

  3. The Fundamental Right To Grow Old With Dignity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Rabelo de Matos Silva Arruda

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the years the role the growing old in society has been changing considerably, the population is aging and increasing life expectancy. Law No. 10741/03, which established the Statute of the Elderly, where the legislator sought to ensure the right to grow old with dignity. The increase in the number of retirees and unemployment generated changing the demand in the social security system, which is being processed at the national congress. This article examines how society has been treating the elderly and preparing to deal with the aging population.

  4. On Li Zhi's Theory of Growing up in Spirit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Junjiang

    2006-01-01

    The theory of growing up in spirit is the core of Li Zhi's thought.The theory attempts to get rid of the limit of the rigid ethical doctrine of Confucianismand to encourage growth in a helpful person for the benefit of the country,which demands both a free environment of society and enough courage and insight of the individual.At the same time,the criterion of growing up in spirit indicates the limitation of Li Zhi's thought.His free exploration,however,provides various revelations for us.

  5. Chinese energy demand falls back

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smil, V.

    1977-10-01

    China's growth in energy demand and production declined in 1976, partly because of difficulty of sustaining a rapid 5.4 percent growth and partly because of the disruptions caused by a major earthquake and the deaths of Mao Tse-Tung and Chou En-Lai. The earthquake, which damaged all mines, the power station, refineries, and transportation lines in the Tangshan area, has had serious economic consequences. The failure to back up a growing coal industry with adequate investments and mechanization was recognized in 1975 and prompted a 10-year modernization program. Progress has been made with new mine shafts, pulverizing equipment, and the use of small mines for local industries. Oil and gas production increased after the discovery of new fields and the use of new technology in the hydrocarbon industries. Ports and terminal facilities to handle large tankers will increase China's oil export traffic. Electricity generation increased with new power facilities, although China's dependence on human and animal power is still a major factor. Changes in energy consumption patterns are developing, but industry still represents 50 percent and transportation less than 10 percent. (DCK)

  6. Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

    2010-01-01

    The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

  7. Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Immerzeel, W.; Droogers, P.

    2013-01-01

    In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in

  8. Sensitivity of precipitation statistics to urban growth in a subtropical coastal megacity cluster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holst, Christopher Claus; Chan, Johnny C L; Tam, Chi-Yung

    2017-09-01

    This short paper presents an investigation on how human activities may or may not affect precipitation based on numerical simulations of precipitation in a benchmark case with modified lower boundary conditions, representing different stages of urban development in the model. The results indicate that certain degrees of urbanization affect the likelihood of heavy precipitation significantly, while less urbanized or smaller cities are much less prone to these effects. Such a result can be explained based on our previous work where the sensitivity of precipitation statistics to surface anthropogenic heat sources lies in the generation of buoyancy and turbulence in the planetary boundary layer and dissipation through triggering of convection. Thus only mega cities of sufficient size, and hence human-activity-related anthropogenic heat emission, can expect to experience such effects. In other words, as cities grow, their effects upon precipitation appear to grow as well. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Carbon dioxide and methane measurements from the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project - Part 1: calibration, urban enhancements, and uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhulst, Kristal R.; Karion, Anna; Kim, Jooil; Salameh, Peter K.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Newman, Sally; Miller, John; Sloop, Christopher; Pongetti, Thomas; Rao, Preeti; Wong, Clare; Hopkins, Francesca M.; Yadav, Vineet; Weiss, Ray F.; Duren, Riley M.; Miller, Charles E.

    2017-07-01

    We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four extra-urban sites including two marine sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one continental site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one continental/mid-troposphere site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ˜ 1 ppm CO2 and ˜ 10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. Urban and suburban sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ˜ 20 ppm CO2 and ˜ 150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ˜ 15 ppm CO2 and ˜ 80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00-16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine

  10. Assessing and evaluating urban VOC emissions in mid-latitude megacities from intensive observations in Paris and Los Angeles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borbon, A.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; McKeen, S. A.; Holloway, J. S.; Gros, V.; Gaimoz, C.; Beekmann, M.; De Gouw, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) affect urban air quality and regional climate change by contributing to ozone formation and the build-up of Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). Quantification of VOC emissions is a first critical step to predict VOC environmental impacts and to design effective abatement strategies. Indeed, the quality of ozone and SOA forecasts strongly depends on an accurate knowledge of the primary VOC emissions. However, commonly used bottom-up approaches are highly uncertain due to source multiplicity (combustion processes, storage and distribution of fossil fuels, solvent use, etc.) because of numerous controlling factors (driving conditions, fuel type, temperature, radiation, etc.), and their great variability in time and space. Field observations of VOC and other trace gases can provide valuable top-down constraints to evaluate VOC emission inventories at urban scales. In addition, the implementation of emission reduction measures raises the question of the increasing importance of VOC sources other than traffic. Here, we will evaluate VOC emissions of two mid-latitude megacities in the Northern Hemisphere: the Greater Paris area (Europe) and Los Angeles (USA). In 2009 and 2010, three intensive field campaigns took place in Paris and Los Angeles in the framework of the MEGAPOLI (EU FP7) and CalNex-2010 projects, respectively. Very detailed measurements of aerosol composition and properties, and their gaseous VOC precursors were carried out at ground-based sites (urban center and suburban) and on various mobile platforms. This contribution uses a comprehensive suite of VOC measurements collected by GC-MS/FID techniques at ground-based sites in both cities by a source-receptor methodology. First, emission ratios were estimated from the observations (uncertainty of ± 20%) and compared regarding regional characteristics and European vs. Californian control policies. Then, determined emission ratios were used to assess the accuracy of up

  11. Source tagging modeling study of heavy haze episodes under complex regional transport processes over Wuhan megacity, Central China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Miaomiao; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Zifa; Gbaguidi, Alex; Liang, Shengwen; Hu, Ke; Wu, Lin; Wu, Huangjian; Huang, Zhen; Shen, Longjiao

    2017-01-01

    Wuhan as a megacity of Central China was suffering from severe particulate matter pollution according to previous observation studies, however, the mechanism behind the pollution formation especially the impact of regional chemical transport is still unclear. This study, carried out on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) coupled with an on-line source-tagging module, explores different roles regional transport had in two strong haze episodes over Wuhan in October 2014 and quantitatively assesses the contributions from local and regional sources to PM 2.5 concentration. Validation of predictions based on observations shows modeling system good skills in reproducing key meteorological and chemical features. The first short-time haze episode occurred on 12 October under strong northerly winds, with a hourly PM 2.5 peak of 180 μg m −3 , and was found to be caused primarily by the long-range transport from the northern regions, which contributed 60.6% of the episode's PM 2.5 concentration (versus a total of 32.7% from sources in and near Wuhan). The second episode lasted from the 15–20 October under stable regional large-scale synoptic conditions and weak winds, and had an hourly PM 2.5 peak of 231.0 μg m −3 . In this episode, both the long-distance transport from far regions and short-range transport from the Wuhan-cluster were the primary causes of the haze episode and account for 24.8% and 29.2% of the PM 2.5 concentration respectively. Therefore, regional transport acts as a crucial driver of haze pollution over Wuhan through not only long-range transfer of pollutants, but also short-range aerosol movement under specific meteorological conditions. The present findings highlight the important role of regional transport in urban haze formation and indicate that the joint control of multi city-clusters are needed to reduce the particulate pollution level in Wuhan. - Highlights: • Regional transport impacts studied on two haze

  12. Investigation of Future Thermal Comforts in a Tropical Megacity Using Coupling of Energy Balance Model and Large Eddy Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueishi, T.; Yucel, M.; Ashie, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Inagaki, A.; Darmanto, N. S.; Nakayoshi, M.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, temperature in urban areas continue to rise as an effect of climate change and urbanization. Specifically, Asian megacities are projected to expand rapidly resulting to serious in the future atmospheric environment. Thus, detailed analysis of urban meteorology for Asian megacities is needed to prescribe optimum against these negative climate modifications. A building-resolving large eddy simulation (LES) coupled with an energy balance model is conducted for a highly urbanized district in central Jakarta on typical daytime hours. Five cases were considered; case 1 utilizes present urban scenario and four cases representing different urban configurations in 2050. The future configurations were based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Building height maps and land use maps of simulation domains are shown in the attached figure (top). Case 1 3 focuses on the difference of future scenarios. Case 1 represents current climatic and urban conditions, case 2 and 3 was an idealized future represented by RCP2.6/SSP1 and RCP8.5/SSP3, respectively. More complex urban morphology was applied in case 4, vegetation and building area were changed in case 5. Meteorological inputs and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) were calculated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Varquez et al [2017]). Sensible and latent heat flux from surfaces were calculated using an energy balance model (Ashie et al [2011]), with considers multi-reflection, evapotranspiration and evaporation. The results of energy balance model (shown in the middle line of figure), in addition to WRF outputs, were used as input into the PArallelized LES Model (PALM) (Raasch et al [2001]). From standard new effective temperature (SET*) which included the effects of temperature, wind speed, humidity and radiation, thermal comfort in urban area was evaluated. SET* contours at 1 m height are shown in the bottom line of the figure. Extreme climate

  13. Megacity impacts on regional ozone formation: observations and WRF-Chem modeling for the MIRAGE-Shanghai field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Tie

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The MIRAGE-Shanghai experiment was designed to characterize the factors controlling regional air pollution near a Chinese megacity (Shanghai and was conducted during September 2009. This paper provides information on the measurements conducted for this study. In order to have some deep analysis of the measurements, a regional chemical/dynamical model (version 3 of Weather Research and Forecasting Chemical model – WRF-Chemv3 is applied for this study. The model results are intensively compared with the measurements to evaluate the model capability for calculating air pollutants in the Shanghai region, especially the chemical species related to ozone formation. The results show that the model is able to calculate the general distributions (the level and the variability of air pollutants in the Shanghai region, and the differences between the model calculation and the measurement are mostly smaller than 30%, except the calculations of HONO (nitrous acid at PD (Pudong and CO (carbon monoxide at DT (Dongtan. The main scientific focus is the study of ozone chemical formation not only in the urban area, but also on a regional scale of the surrounding area of Shanghai. The results show that during the experiment period, the ozone photochemical formation was strongly under the VOC (volatile organic compound-limited condition in the urban area of Shanghai. Moreover, the VOC-limited condition occurred not only in the city, but also in the larger regional area. There was a continuous enhancement of ozone concentrations in the downwind of the megacity of Shanghai, resulting in a significant enhancement of ozone concentrations in a very large regional area in the surrounding region of Shanghai. The sensitivity study of the model suggests that there is a threshold value for switching from VOC-limited condition to NOx (nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide-limited condition. The threshold value is strongly dependent on the emission ratio of NOx / VOCs. When the

  14. Onsite greywater treatment using pilot scale grow technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajput, M.U.

    2015-01-01

    The GROW Technology for greywater treatment was installed at the MUET (Mehran University of Engineering and Technology), hostel and run under continuous flow conditions with hydraulic loading rate of 0.15m.d-1. The monitoring and analysis of influent and effluent water were carried out during January-December, 2010. Local plants species such as water hyacinth, Pennywort (duck weed), Mint and Cattail were used in the GROW rig as a mixed mode. Coarse Gravels were filled in the troughs as a medium. The collected samples were analyzed for BOD5 (Biochemical Oxygen Demand), COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand), TSS (Total Suspended Solids), pH, and DO (Dissolved Oxygen). Removal efficiencies of BOD5, COD and TSS were calculated as 83.0,69.0 and 84.0% respectively. DO was found increased from 0.6-3.5 mg.dm-3 while pH was observed between 6.5-7.8. (author)

  15. Psychopathology and tobacco demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Zvolensky, Michael J; Abrantes, Ana M; Metrik, Jane

    2017-08-01

    Behavioral economic measurement of the relative value of tobacco (Cigarette Purchase Task; CPT) is used to examine individual differences in motivation for tobacco under certain contexts. Smokers with psychopathology, relative to those without, may demonstrate stronger demand for tobacco following a period of smoking deprivation, which could account for disparate rates of smoking and cessation among this subgroup. Participants (n=111) were community-recruited adult daily smokers who completed the CPT after a deprivation period of approximately 60min. Presence of psychopathology was assessed via clinical interview; 40.5% (n=45) of the sample met criteria for past-year psychological diagnosis. Specifically, 31.5% (n=35) had an emotional disorder (anxiety/depressive disorder), 17.1% (n=19) had a substance use disorder, and 19.1% of the sample had more than one disorder. Smokers with any psychopathology showed significantly higher intensity (demand at unrestricted cost; $0) and O max (peak expenditure for a drug) relative to smokers with no psychopathology. Intensity was significantly higher among smokers with an emotional disorder compared to those without. Smokers with a substance use disorder showed significantly higher intensity and O max , and lower elasticity, reflecting greater insensitivity to price increases. Having≥2 disorders was associated with higher intensity relative to having 1 or no disorders. Findings suggest that presence of psychopathology may be associated with greater and more persistent motivation to smoke. Future work is needed to explore the mechanism linking psychopathology to tobacco demand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Ethane supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamerson, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    Estimates are given for ethane production, chiefly from the Gulf Coast area. Increase in interregional transfers are predicted. Comparisons from 1992 through 1995 are made. The author concludes the following: ethane will be supply limited over the decade of the 90's; values will be over competing feedstocks; minimum practical demands will be close to available supply; regional relationships will reflect pipeline tariffs; purity ethane/EP spreads may narrow with new Mt. Belvieu fractionation capacity; new domestic supplies will back out imports; and Ethane's share of ethylene production may drop over the period

  17. Road infrastructure and demand induction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder; Lahrmann, Harry

    2006-01-01

    a long screenline is used to measure the development in aggregate demand in selected corridors. The paper analyses demand induction by establishing time series of aggregate demand that is compared with the national traffic index. Significant trend breaks in the association between aggregate demand...... in the corridors and the national index, following the opening of motorways or bridges, indicates demand induction by infrastructure expansion in a number of instances. Lack of significant trend breaks following opening year is found in peripheral areas where major population centres are missing. This indicates...... the necessity of some latent demand within suitable travel range for new infrastructure elements to produce significant amounts of induced demand. Estimates of demand induction as a percentage of the realised demand five years after opening are between 10% and 67% for new motorway sections depending...

  18. Stream Clustering of Growing Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Zaigham Faraz; Spiliopoulou, Myra

    We study incremental clustering of objects that grow and accumulate over time. The objects come from a multi-table stream e.g. streams of Customer and Transaction. As the Transactions stream accumulates, the Customers’ profiles grow. First, we use an incremental propositionalisation to convert the multi-table stream into a single-table stream upon which we apply clustering. For this purpose, we develop an online version of K-Means algorithm that can handle these swelling objects and any new objects that arrive. The algorithm also monitors the quality of the model and performs re-clustering when it deteriorates. We evaluate our method on the PKDD Challenge 1999 dataset.

  19. QUALITY PREMIUMS FOR AUSTRALIAN WHEAT IN THE GROWING ASIAN MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z.; Stanmore, Roland G.

    1994-01-01

    An hedonic price function is applied to Australia's wheat exports to the growing Asian markets. The values for the quality characteristics in the wheat markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand are estimated. The data base for the study is from the Australian Wheat Board shipments over the period 1984 to 1991. The sample is divided into two separate time periods to test the consistency in demand for export wheat and to trace recent trends in quality premiums. The im...

  20. How do normal faults grow?

    OpenAIRE

    Blækkan, Ingvild; Bell, Rebecca; Rotevatn, Atle; Jackson, Christopher; Tvedt, Anette

    2018-01-01

    Faults grow via a sympathetic increase in their displacement and length (isolated fault model), or by rapid length establishment and subsequent displacement accrual (constant-length fault model). To test the significance and applicability of these two models, we use time-series displacement (D) and length (L) data extracted for faults from nature and experiments. We document a range of fault behaviours, from sympathetic D-L fault growth (isolated growth) to sub-vertical D-L growth trajectorie...

  1. Demand for electrical energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergougnoux, J.; Fouquet, D.

    1983-01-01

    The different utilizations of electric energy are reviewed in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the industry. The competitive position of electricity in regard to other fuels has been strengthned by the sudden rise in the price of oil in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980. The evolution of electricity prices depended on the steps taken to adjust the electricity generation system. The substitution of electricity applications for hydro-carbons is an essential point of energy policy. The adjustment at all times, at least cost and most reliability, of the supply of electricity to the demand for it is a major problem in the design and operation of electric systems. National demand for power at a given moment is extremely diversified. Electricity consumption presents daily and seasonal variations, and variations according to the different sectors. Forecasting power requirements is for any decision on operation or investment relating to an electrical system. Load management is desirable (prices according to the customers, optional tariffs for ''peak-day withdrawal''). To conclude, prospects for increased electricity consumption are discussed [fr

  2. Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hua; Liu, Yanan; Gao, Yixuan; Hao, Yu; Ma, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Kan

    2017-03-01

    In China, more than 80% electricity comes from coal which dominates the CO2 emissions. Residential electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in electricity infrastructure planning and energy policy designing, but it is challenging to make an accurate forecast for developing countries. This paper forecasts the provincial residential electricity consumption of China in the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) period using panel data. To overcome the limitations of widely used predication models with unreliably prior knowledge on function forms, a robust piecewise linear model in reduced form is utilized to capture the non-deterministic relationship between income and residential electricity consumption. The forecast results suggest that the growth rates of developed provinces will slow down, while the less developed will be still in fast growing. The national residential electricity demand will increase at 6.6% annually during 2016-2020, and populous provinces such as Guangdong will be the main contributors to the increments.

  3. Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chelmis, Charalampos [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Aman, Saima [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor K. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2015-01-30

    Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

  4. Electric demand and the antinuclear movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studness, C.M.

    1984-01-01

    The author feels that, with electric demand growth of 4.5 to 5% per year expected, it will be only a matter of time before stepping-up the stream of utility capacity additions becomes an important issue. If demand grows 4.5% per year instead of 2.8% as projected by NERC, demand will be 10% higher and peak reserve margins about 12 percentage points lower than envisioned by the NERC projections after five years. By 1988 or 1989, little or no excess capacity will remain, and the utilities will be faced with adding twice as much capacity annually as now planned to avoid service deterioration. As questions about the adequacy of current utility capacity plans and concerns about service quality move toward center stage, the antinuclear movement should find it increasingly difficult to garner the broad support it now enjoys. Capacity represented by any uncompleted nuclear plants will appear increasingly beneficial, and those who do not have strong antinuclear sentiments should become increasingly hesitant about lending support to the movement. Accordingly, electric demand growth in due course can be expected to drain marginal supporters from the antinuclear movement and thereby erode the movement's vitality

  5. Physiological demands of downhill mountain biking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burr, Jamie F; Drury, C Taylor; Ivey, Adam C; Warburton, Darren E R

    2012-12-01

    Mountain biking is a popular recreational pursuit and the physiological demands of cross-country style riding have been well documented. However, little is known regarding the growing discipline of gravity-assisted downhill cycling. We characterised the physiological demands of downhill mountain biking under typical riding conditions. Riding oxygen consumption (VO(2)) and heart rate (HR) were measured on 11 male and eight female experienced downhill cyclists and compared with data during a standardised incremental to maximum (VO(2max)) exercise test. The mean VO(2) while riding was 23.1 ± 6.9 ml · kg(-1) · min(-1) or 52 ± 14% of VO(2max) with corresponding heart rates of 146 ± 11 bpm (80 ± 6% HRmax). Over 65% of the ride was in a zone at or above an intensity level associated with improvements in health-related fitness. However, the participants' heart rates and ratings of perceived exertion were artificially inflated in comparison with the actual metabolic demands of the downhill ride. Substantial muscular fatigue was evident in grip strength, which decreased 5.4 ± 9.4 kg (5.5 ± 11.2%, P = 0.03) post-ride. Participation in downhill mountain biking is associated with significant physiological demands, which are in a range associated with beneficial effects on health-related fitness.

  6. GHG emission control and solid waste management for megacities with inexact inputs: A case study in Beijing, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Hongwei, E-mail: luhw@ncepu.edu.cn; Sun, Shichao; Ren, Lixia; He, Li

    2015-03-02

    Highlights: • This study advances an integrated MSW management model under inexact input information. • The model can minimize net system cost and mitigate GHG emissions. • The model is particularly developed for the city of Beijing, China. • It reduces system cost by [45, 61]% and mitigates GHG emissions by [141, 179]%. • It could provide implications to megacities regarding GHG emissions control. - Abstract: This study advances an integrated MSW management model under inexact input information for the city of Beijing, China. The model is capable of simultaneously generating MSW management policies, performing GHG emission control, and addressing system uncertainty. Results suggest that: (1) a management strategy with minimal system cost can be obtained even when suspension of certain facilities becomes unavoidable through specific increments of the remaining ones; (2) expansion of facilities depends only on actual needs, rather than enabling the full usage of existing facilities, although it may prove to be a costly proposition; (3) adjustment of waste-stream diversion ratio directly leads to a change in GHG emissions from different disposal facilities. Results are also obtained from the comparison of the model with a conventional one without GHG emissions consideration. It is indicated that (1) the model would reduce the net system cost by [45, 61]% (i.e., [3173, 3520] million dollars) and mitigate GHG emissions by [141, 179]% (i.e., [76, 81] million tons); (2) increased waste would be diverted to integrated waste management facilities to prevent overmuch CH{sub 4} emission from the landfills.

  7. Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Pamela P; King, Aaron A; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, A S G; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-04-12

    The role of climate forcing in the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been revealed via retrospective analyses of incidence records aggregated across space and, in particular, over whole cities. Here, we focus on the transmission dynamics of rotavirus, the main diarrheal disease in infants and young children, within the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identify two zones, the densely urbanized core and the more rural periphery, that respond differentially to flooding. Moreover, disease seasonality differs substantially between these regions, spanning variation comparable to the variation from tropical to temperate regions. By combining process-based models with an extensive disease surveillance record, we show that the response to climate forcing is mainly seasonal in the core, where a more endemic transmission resulting from an asymptomatic reservoir facilitates the response to the monsoons. The force of infection in this monsoon peak can be an order of magnitude larger than the force of infection in the more epidemic periphery, which exhibits little or no postmonsoon outbreak in a pattern typical of nearby rural areas. A typically smaller peak during the monsoon season nevertheless shows sensitivity to interannual variability in flooding. High human density in the core is one explanation for enhanced transmission during troughs and an associated seasonal monsoon response in this diarrheal disease, which unlike cholera, has not been widely viewed as climate-sensitive. Spatial demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity can create reservoirs of infection and enhance the sensitivity of disease systems to climate forcing, especially in the populated cities of the developing world.

  8. Contribution of Fossil Fuels and Wood Combustion to Carcinogenic PAHs in the Ambient Atmosphere of a Tropical Megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jyethi, D. S.; Khillare, P. S.; Sarkar, S.

    2015-12-01

    Weekly particulate matter sampling was carried out at a peri-urban site located in megacity Delhi, India for 1 year (2009-2010) and the annual mean PM10 level was found to be ˜9 times the World Health Organization limit. Seasonal variation of PAHs (range 37.2-74.0 ng m-3) was significant with winter values being 72% and 68% higher than summer and monsoon respectively. Principal component analysis coupled with multiple linear regression identified diesel, natural gas and lubricating oil combustion (49.5%), wood combustion (25.4%), gasoline (15.5%) and coal combustion (9.6%) sources for the observed PAHs. Heavy traffic on the national highway and arterial roads and domestic emissions from suburban households in the vicinity of the site appeared to have significantly affected its air quality. A substantial portion (˜55%) of the aerosol PAH load was comprised of carcinogenic species, which yielded a considerably high lifetime inhalation cancer risk estimate (8.7E-04). If considered as a conservative lower-bound estimate, this risk translates into ˜211 excess cancer cases for lifetime inhalation exposure to the observed PAH concentrations in Delhi.

  9. Microbial Indicators, Opportunistic Bacteria, and Pathogenic Protozoa for Monitoring Urban Wastewater Reused for Irrigation in the Proximity of a Megacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca-Salazar, María Alejandra; Díaz-Ávalos, Carlos; Castañón-Martínez, María Teresa; Tapia-Palacios, Marco Antonio; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa

    2016-12-01

    In Latin America and the Caribbean, with a population of approximately 580 million inhabitants, less than 20 % of wastewater is treated. Megacities in this region face common challenges and problems related with water quality and sanitation, which require urgent actions, such as changes in the sustainable use of water resources. The Mexico City Metropolitan Area is one of the most populous urban agglomerations in the world, with over 20 million inhabitants, and is no exception to the challenges of sustainable water management. For more than 100 years, wastewater from Mexico City has been transported north to the Mezquital Valley, which is ranked as the largest wastewater-irrigated area in the world. In this study, bacteria and pathogenic protozoa were analyzed to determine the association between the presence of such microorganisms and water types (WTs) across sampling sites and seasons in Mexico City and the Mezquital Valley. Our results show a difference in microbiological water quality between sampling sites and WTs. There is no significant interaction between sampling sites and seasons in terms of bacterial concentration, demonstrating that water quality remains constant at each site regardless of whether it is the dry or the rainy season. The results illustrate the quantity of these microorganisms in wastewater, provide a current diagnosis of water quality across the area which could affect the health of residents in both Mexico City and the Mezquital Valley, and demonstrate the need to transition in the short term to treat wastewater from a local to a regional scale.

  10. The Physical Density of the City—Deconstruction of the Delusive Density Measure with Evidence from Two European Megacities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Taubenböck

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Density is among the most important descriptive as well as normative measures in urban research. While its basic concept is generally understandable, approaches towards the density measure are manifold, diverse and of multidimensional complexity. This evolves from differing thematic, spatial and calculative specifications. Consequently, applied density measures are often used in a subjective, non-transparent, unspecific and thus non-comparable manner. In this paper, we aim at a systematic deconstruction of the measure density. Varying thematic, spatial and calculative dimensions show significant influence on the measure. With both quantitative and qualitative techniques of evaluation, we assess the particular influences on the measure density. To do so, we reduce our experiment setting to a mere physical perspective; that is, the quantitative measures building density, degree of soil sealing, floor space density and, more specifically, the density of generic structural classes such as open spaces and highest built-up density areas. Using up-to-date geodata derived from remote sensing and volunteered geographic information, we build upon high-quality spatial information products such as 3-D city models. Exemplified for the comparison of two European megacities, namely Paris and London, we reveal and systemize necessary variables to be clearly defined for meaningful conclusions using the density measure.

  11. Panorama 2007: Oil Supply and Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2007-01-01

    A new paradigm is gradually developing on the world oil market. Under extreme pressure from growing demand in emerging countries, the supply side is progressively adjusting. As the market stabilizes, prices are seeking their equilibrium. Although the WTI seems to be finding its level at about USD 60 per barrel, it is still too soon to take this price quotation as a reference. Due to the inertia in behaviours, the effects of recent trends are not all visible yet and adjustments are still underway. In this uncertain business environment, key market players have not yet finalized their strategies. (author)

  12. Demand for male contraception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, Emily; Bishai, David

    2012-10-01

    The biological basis for male contraception was established decades ago, but despite promising breakthroughs and the financial burden men increasingly bear due to better enforcement of child support policies, no viable alternative to the condom has been brought to market. Men who wish to control their fertility must rely on female compliance with contraceptives, barrier methods, vasectomy or abstinence. Over the last 10 years, the pharmaceutical industry has abandoned most of its investment in the field, leaving only nonprofit organisations and public entities pursuing male contraception. Leading explanations are uncertain forecasts of market demand pitted against the need for critical investments to demonstrate the safety of existing candidate products. This paper explores the developments and challenges in male contraception research. We produce preliminary estimates of potential market size for a safe and effective male contraceptive based on available data to estimate the potential market for a novel male method.

  13. Animating the Ethical Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vistisen, Peter; Jensen, Thessa; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the challenge of attaining ethical user stances during the design process of products and services and proposes animation-based sketching as a design method, which supports elaborating and examining different ethical stances towards the user. The discussion is qualified...... by an empirical study of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) in a Triple Helix constellation. Using a three-week long innovation workshop, U- CrAc, involving 16 Danish companies and organisations and 142 students as empirical data, we discuss how animation-based sketching can explore not yet existing user...... dispositions, as well as create an incentive for ethical conduct in development and innovation processes. The ethical fulcrum evolves around Løgstrup’s Ethical Demand and his notion of spontaneous life manifestations. From this, three ethical stances are developed; apathy, sympathy and empathy. By exploring...

  14. Rewarding yet demanding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørkedal, S T B; Torsting, A M B; Møller, T

    2016-01-01

    in a logbook. The Canadian Occupational Performance Measure was used to initiate and guide the intervention and the Canadian Model of Client-Centred Enablement for the client-therapist relationship. RESULTS: Participants described the intervention, which presupposed a certain level of patient readiness...... design comprising an eight-week client-centred occupational therapy intervention with semi-structured interviews with five of the six clients out of 10 who completed the intervention. Braun and Clark's thematic analysis was applied to the transcripts. Adherence rate and dropouts were recorded......, as demanding. Participants valued engaging in real-life occupations while anchoring new strategies but also the occupational therapist's role in dealing with failure. Participants felt the intervention assisted in their recovery process and enabled them to engage in meaningful occupations. CONCLUSION...

  15. PROOF on Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malzacher, Peter; Manafov, Anar

    2010-01-01

    PROOF on Demand (PoD) is a set of utilities, which allows starting a PROOF cluster at user request, on any resource management system. It provides a plug-in based system, which allows to use different job submission frontends, such as LSF or gLite WMS. Main components of PoD are the PROOFAgent and the PAConsole. PROOFAgent provides the communication layer between the PROOF master on the local machine and the PROOF workers on the remote resources, possibly behind a firewall. PAConsole provides a user-friendly GUI, which is used to setup, manage, and shutdown the dynamic PROOF cluster. Installation is simple and doesn't require administrator privileges, and all the processes run in user space. PoD gives users, who don't have a centrally-administrated static PROOF cluster at their institute, the possibility to enjoy the full power of interactive analysis with PROOF.

  16. Dental implants in growing children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S K Mishra

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The replacement of teeth by implants is usually restricted to patients with completed craniofacial growth. The aim of this literature review is to discuss the use of dental implants in normal growing patients and in patients with ectodermal dysplasia and the influence of maxillary and mandibular skeletal and dental growth on the stability of those implants. It is recommended that while deciding the optimal individual time point of implant insertion, the status of skeletal growth, the degree of hypodontia, and extension of related psychological stress should be taken into account, in addition to the status of existing dentition and dental compliance of a pediatric patient.

  17. Torsion of a growing shaft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander V. Manzhirov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The torsion of a shaft by rigid disks is considered. The shaft has the form of circular cylinder. Two rigid disks are attached to its end faces. The process of continuous growth of such shaft under the influence of twisting torques applied to the disks is studied. Dual series equations which reflect the mathematical content of the problem at the different stages of the growing process are derived and solved. Results of the numerical analysis and singularities of the qualitative mechanical behaviour of the fundamental characteristics are discussed.

  18. Development of a soilless growing system for blueberries (Vaccinium corymbosum): nutrient demand and nutrient solution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogt, W.; Dijk, van P.; Douven, F.; Maas, van der M.P.

    2014-01-01

    Although the majority of blueberries in The Netherlands are soil grown, interest in soilless culture has increased recently. Modern cultivation with high yield and fruit quality needs maximum control of growth and crop development, which is expected to be achieved with irrigation and nutrient

  19. Retaining U.S. Air Force Pilots When the Civilian Demand for Pilots Is Growing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    compensation, so a 1-percent increase in basic pay is like a 0.6-percent increase in total pay, other things being equal . If so, the retention change...at other major airlines.3 The collective bargaining agreement called for American/US Airways pilots to reach pay parity with Delta and United pilots...non-veterans in non- pilot occupations after controlling for age, education, and gender . But the results show that pilots who are veterans earn 10 to

  20. FCS Academic Programs and Financial Planning Industry: Partnering to Meet Growing Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lytton, Ruth H.; Grable, John E.

    2004-01-01

    Since the turn of the 20th century and the coalescence of home economics, the use of money within the household has been an issue of study. Now known as family and consumer sciences (FCS), the profession can boast of a century of financial education of youth and adults in a variety of formal and informal settings. In recent decades, financial…

  1. Marketing-Stimulated Word-of-Mouth: A Channel for Growing Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombeski, William R; Martin, Becky; Britt, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Marketing-stimulated word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing has been poorly understood in health care, leading to it being underappreciated and underutilized by marketers. A study of new patients to a new runner's clinic was conducted to understand how they chose the program. The importance of marketing-stimulated WOM, both individual and organizational, is documented. Marketing-stimulated WOM is an often overlooked and rarely measured channel for increasing the impact of marketing programs.

  2. China’s Growing Energy Demand: Implications for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    14 increase to 30 GW by 2020.28 In substitutes for transportation fuel, China is also increasing its capacity to produce bioethanol and biodiesel ...Policies to address higher or more volatile oil prices could give U.S. consumers more flexibility in using oil-based transportation or could reduce...the transportation sector. Even so, the use of energy per person in China was only about a quarter of the energy per person used in the United States

  3. Meeting the growing demand for gas from Asia: Prospects and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2014-01-01

    With a consumption of 645 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2012, Asia-Oceania became the second largest regional market in the world after North America. Currently booming, this market has the largest growth potential in the medium and long term and will significantly impact the international gas landscape. The Asian gas market is facing structural and institutional reforms needed for natural gas to ensure its crucial role in the future energy mix. In this paper, the international association CEDIGAZ analyses the specific characteristics of the Asian gas market and presents its growth prospects in the medium and long term. These prospects are contingent upon an economic and regulatory environment in favour to natural gas. In the future, interactions between energy, regional markets and prices will intensify in a context of the internationalization of gas markets and the growth of a flexible LNG supply. Asia needs to adapt global market changes to its own regional market. Some regulatory, commercial and contractual moves are underway for natural gas to be competitive and attractive at regional and local level. These changes must enable the materialization of the massive investments required to ensure the expansion of the Asian gas market, which is crucial for a successful energy transition. However, the perspectives for a competitive wholesale market with convergence of spot prices within the region (as with the European gas market) are restricted by the low level of pipeline exchanges, the lack of liquidity and the disparate stages of development of the natural gas markets. In addition, the details of how reforms will be achieved and their direction will require a clear political willingness, as the expected growth of natural gas could be held back by changing priorities in government strategies

  4. Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Carl R.

    2009-01-01

    Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

  5. How fast do eels grow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, H.J.M.

    1988-01-01

    Not so very much about the growth pattern of the eel is known yet. Eels move about nearly all the time. They are thus very difficult to follow and we do not, for examble, yet know how long it actually takes for them to grow to maturity in the wild. So far, a macroscopic analysis of the number of bright and dark areas (growth rings) in the 'earstones' has been used to determine eel age, but this method was recently challenged. Use of radioisotopes has been suggested previously for this purpose. For this present study the rare earth elements, europium-152 and europium-155 are used. When incubated in artificial sea water, a satisfactory final radioactive label was achieved. Two experiments were planned in collaboration with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. 2000 Elvers were set out in 1982, in the cooling water outlet of the Oskarshamn nuclear power plant, each marked with europium-155. In 1984 another 10 000 elvers labelled with europium-152 were set out under similar conditions. The idea was mainly to see how fast the eels would grow, and to compare their known age with that determined by examining the earstones. Results showed that there was no clear-cut correlation between actual eel age and the biological age determination used so far. During four years, only 10 of the original 1300 eels were recaptured. It is thus hard to say anything definite from our results on the viability of setting out elvers in the environment

  6. Growing markets to sustain oil sands development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wise, T.H.

    2003-01-01

    The utilization of Alberta bitumen for the clean fuels market depends on upgrading, transportation, and refining processes. Forecasts show that oil sands production, which includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), will surpass declining conventional production in Western Canada. Several issues pose a challenge to the oil sands processing industry. The producers' market is affected by crude oil prices, market expansion options, diluent availability/cost, supply cost competitiveness, and regional processing. The common market issues include light/heavy crude prices, oil sands crude qualities, prices of oil sands crudes, pipeline infrastructure, and competitive supplies. The issues facing the refiners are: refining margins, security of crude supply, refined product quality, and competitive product supply. A brief review of markets for Canadian crude oil, including synthetic crude, was provided. The share of the Midwest market by Alberta must be retained and increased. The market expansion options were reviewed for both downstream (refining) and upstream (upgrading) operations. To reach more distant markets such as Southern Midwest, Washington, and California, new pipeline capacity would be required. The market is nearly saturated for Canada's heavy oil supply. More upgrading will be required as bitumen production increases. Market growth is still possible for Canada's SCO but according to forecasts, the market could also become saturated. To increase demand and allow supplies to grow, SCO prices may fall below light crude prices. It was noted that a balance must be achieved in order for producers to increase production and for refiner/upgraders to expand their conversion capacity. tabs., figs

  7. AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE WALKING ENVIRONMENT IN A MEGACITY: CASE STUDY OF VALIASR STREET, TEHRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahareh Motamed

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available High air pollution, car dependency, and increasing statistics of obesity and cardiovascular diseases are growing issues in the mega city of Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Therefore, investigating the quality of walkability as an effective solution for these issues in Valiasr Street, the longest street of Middle East and one of the key vena of Tehran, becomes significant. Research shows that despite the attempts of executed projects, the majority of implemented actions in this street were not in accordance with services of its pedestrian facilities. Even in some cases, they may threaten the walking environment. This paper discusses not only the physical features of Valiasr Street but it also considers the consequences of policies and municipal decisions in light of walkability criteria. Using walkability indexes from various scholars, this study seeks to investigate the level of walkability in Valiasr Street through field observation and mapping by trained observers/ auditors.

  8. Aerosol optical properties in the mega-cities Beijing and Guangzhou: Measurements and implications for regional air pollution, aerosol sources and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, R. M.; Yang, H.; Schmid, O.; Rose, D.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2009-04-01

    Aerosol optical properties were measured in two mega-city regions in China. The first site (Backgarden) was in a rural area approximately 60 km northwest of the mega-city Guangzhou in south China and was part of the "Program of Regional Integrated Experiments of Air Quality over the Pearl River Delta" intensive campaign in July 2006 (PRIDE-PRD2006). The second site (Yufa) was in a suburban area approximately 40 km south of Beijing and was part of "Campaigns of Air Quality Research in Beijing" (CAREBeijing-2006) in August 2006. Both sites were designed to measure the regional pollution of the mega-cities. The optical parameters determined with a nephelometer and photoacoustic spectrometer include absorption and scattering coefficients, single scattering albedos and Angstrom exponents at multiple wavelengths (450-700 nm). In both measurement campaigns, we observed pronounced diurnal cycles in absorption and scattering coefficients and single scattering albedo, which can be explained by boundary layer mixing effects and enhanced light absorbing carbon emissions from traffic activity during the nighttime and early morning, respectively (diesel soot from regulated truck traffic). In Beijing both the extensive and the intensive properties were highly dependent upon the origin of the air mass, which indicates that not only does the aerosol concentration change with air mass origin, but so do the chemical composition and sources. When the measured air masses originated in the north and passed over Beijing, the single scattering albedo was generally low (transported into the city from the south. The scattering and absorption coefficients measured in the outflow of the Guangzhou area during PRIDE-PRD2006 were ~2 times smaller than the southerly inflow into Beijing during CARBeijing-2006, which indicates that the sources of particulate pollution south of Beijing are even stronger than those in the Pearl River Delta. In both mega-city regions the Angstrom exponent exhibited a

  9. Environment-quality demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delfini, M.G.; Leenhouts, H.P.

    1988-12-01

    In the framework of the Environment Quality Requirements (MKE) project a model has been designed in which environment-quality demands have been defined and quantified, and a measuring strategy has been developed. In the model it is required for the quality of the environment that the radionuclide concentration in the various environment compartiments remains limited in order to keep the effective dose equivalence for the 'reference man' under a certain reference level. In order to be able to determine the maximum nuclide concentration it is necessary to quantify the relation between the concentration in the environment and the dose for the people. The quantitative relation between concentration and dose has been established on the base of parameters (Derived Activity Limits (DAL's) which have to be calculated for each environment compartiment, each nuclide and each exposure pathway. This model has been described and, as example, the DAL's have been calculated for the compartiment air (for which the two exposure pathways inhalation and direct radiation were considered). For the other environment compartiments a similar elaboration is needed. The feasibility of application of the MKE-model in the actual practice of measurements in the environment and examination of dose for the population depends upon the possibility for performing nuclide specific measurements in all environment compartiments, the level of the dose resulting from the contamination of the environment and the related accurateness of the measurements

  10. Scaling architecture-on-demand based optical networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meyer, Hugo; Sancho, Jose Carlos; Mrdakovic, Milica; Peng, Shuping; Simeonidou, Dimitra; Miao, Wang; Calabretta, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes methodologies that allow scaling properly Architecture-On-Demand (AoD) based optical networks. As Data Centers and HPC systems are growing in size and complexity, optical networks seem to be the way to scale the bandwidth of current network infrastructures. To scale the number of

  11. Viking Disruptions or Growing Integration?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2012-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper...... demonstrates how formal network analysis can be combined with a contextual reading of evidence relating to a long-distance communication network in the past. A study of the combined distributions of ten vessel types in 152 settlement sites from the 10th century suggests the outline of the core structure...... of the network. The model implies that 10th century long-distance exchange in the North Sea region featured long-distance links equal to those of the Carolingian emporia trade, and represented a growth in terms of new axes of integration, above all the growing links between the Scandinavian Peninsula...

  12. Growing the Blockchain information infrastructure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbar, Karim; Bjørn, Pernille

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present ethnographic data that unpacks the everyday work of some of the many infrastructuring agents who contribute to creating, sustaining and growing the Blockchain information infrastructure. We argue that this infrastructuring work takes the form of entrepreneurial actions......, which are self-initiated and primarily directed at sustaining or increasing the initiator’s stake in the emerging information infrastructure. These entrepreneurial actions wrestle against the affordances of the installed base of the Blockchain infrastructure, and take the shape of engaging...... or circumventing activities. These activities purposefully aim at either influencing or working around the enablers and constraints afforded by the Blockchain information infrastructure, as its installed base is gaining inertia. This study contributes to our understanding of the purpose of infrastructuring, seen...

  13. Towards Interpreting the Signal of CO2 Emissions from Megacities by Applying a Lagrangian Receptor-oriented Model to OCO-2 XCO2 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D.; Lin, J. C.; Oda, T.; Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Yang, E. G.; Kort, E. A.

    2017-12-01

    Urban regions are large emitters of CO2 whose emission inventories are still associated with large uncertainties. Therefore, a strong need exists to better quantify emissions from megacities using a top-down approach. Satellites — e.g., the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), provide a platform for monitoring spatiotemporal column CO2 concentrations (XCO2). In this study, we present a Lagrangian receptor-oriented model framework and evaluate "model-retrieved" XCO2 by comparing against OCO-2-retrieved XCO2, for three megacities/regions (Riyadh, Cairo and Pearl River Delta). OCO-2 soundings indicate pronounced XCO2 enhancements (dXCO2) when crossing Riyadh, which are successfully captured by our model with a slight latitude shift. From this model framework, we can identify and compare the relative contributions of dXCO2 resulted from anthropogenic emission versus biospheric fluxes. In addition, to impose constraints on emissions for Riyadh through inversion methods, three uncertainties sources are addressed in this study, including 1) transport errors, 2) receptor and model setups in atmospheric models, and 3) urban emission uncertainties. For 1), we calculate transport errors by adding a wind error component to randomize particle distributions. For 2), a set of sensitivity tests using bootstrap method is performed to describe proper ways to setup receptors in Lagrangian models. For 3), both emission uncertainties from the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) and the spread among three emission inventories are used to approximate an overall fractional uncertainty in modeled anthropogenic signal (dXCO2.anthro). Lastly, we investigate the definition of background (clean) XCO2 for megacities from retrieved XCO2 by means of statistical tools and our model framework.

  14. How to grow great leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ready, Douglas A

    2004-12-01

    Few leaders excel at both the unit and enterprise levels. More than ever, though, corporations need people capable of running business units, functions, or regions and focusing on broader company goals. It's up to organizations to develop leaders who can manage the inherent tensions between unit and enterprise priorities. Take the example of RBC Financial Group, one of the largest, most profitable companies in Canada. In the mid-1990's, RBC revamped its competitive strategy in a couple of ways. After the government announced that the Big Six banks in Canada could neither merge with nor acquire one another, RBC decided to grow through cross-border acquisitions. Additionally, because customers were starting to seek bundled products and services, RBC reached across its traditional stand-alone businesses to offer integrated solutions. These changes in strategy didn't elicit immediate companywide support. Instinctively, employees reacted against what would amount to a delicate balancing act: They would have to lift their focus out of their silos while continuing to meet unit goals. However, by communicating extensively with staff members, cross-fertilizing talent across unit boundaries, and targeting rewards to shape performance, RBC was able to cultivate rising leaders with the unit expertise and the enterprise vision to help the company fulfill its new aims. Growing such well-rounded leaders takes sustained effort because unit-enterprise tensions are quite real. Three common conditions reinforce these tensions. First, most organizational structures foster silo thinking and unimaginative career paths. Second, most companies lack venues for airing and resolving conflicts that arise when there are competing priorities. Third, many have misguided reward systems that pit unit performance against enterprise considerations. Such long-established patterns of organizational behavior are tough to break. Fortunately, as RBC discovered, people can be trained to think and work

  15. Military Contingencies in Megacities and Sub megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    are defined in terms of administrative bound- aries, at times in terms of functional boundaries, and at times they are defined in terms of ecological ...data, and discover what people actually do, thereby developing “previously 78 unimaginable insight into modern urban ecology .”138 Dixon has also noted...Military Ethics ,” in David Whetham and Bradley J. Strawser, eds., Responsibilities to Protect: Perspectives in Theory and Practice, Leiden, NL

  16. Fast food consumption and its associations with obesity and hypertension among children: results from the baseline data of the Childhood Obesity Study in China Mega-cities

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Yaling; Wang, Liang; Xue, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wang, Youfa

    2017-01-01

    Background China has seen rapid increase in obesity and hypertension prevalence and fast food consumption over the past decade. We examined status and risk factors for Western- and Chinese fast food consumption and their associations with health outcomes in Chinese children, and examined how maternal factors were associated with child health outcomes. Methods Data of 1626 students aged 7–16 (11.6 ± 2.0) years and their parents in four mega-cities across China (Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, and ...

  17. Phosphorus dynamics and limitation of fast- and slow-growing temperate seaweeds in Oslofjord, Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten Foldager; Borum, Jens; Fotel, Frank Leck

    2010-01-01

    During coastal eutrophication, fast-growing, ephemeral macroalgae bloom at the expense of slow-growing, perennial macroalgae. This change in community composition has been explained by a differential ability to exploit and utilize inorganic nitrogen among macroalgae with different growth strategies......-growing algae (Ulva and Ceramium) took up dissolved inorganic P (DIP) much faster than thicker, slower growing species (belonging to Fucus, Ascophyllum and Laminaria) but also had much higher P-demands per unit biomass and time. DIP concentrations in the Oslofjord were low from April through August, and fast......-growing species were unable to meet their P-demand from uptake for several months during summer. Hence, Ceramium and Ulva were potentially P-limited during summer, whereas Ascophyllum and Laminaria were able to acquire sufficient external DIP to remain P-replete throughout the year. Storage of P prevented Fucus...

  18. Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Browning, Martin

    1999-01-01

    In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

  19. Size-resolved measurement of the mixing state of soot in the megacity Beijing, China: diurnal cycle, aging and parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. F. Cheng

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Soot particles are the most efficient light absorbing aerosol species in the atmosphere, playing an important role as a driver of global warming. Their climate effects strongly depend on their mixing state, which significantly changes their light absorbing capability and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN activity. Therefore, knowledge about the mixing state of soot and its aging mechanism becomes an important topic in the atmospheric sciences.

    The size-resolved (30–320 nm diameter mixing state of soot particles in polluted megacity air was measured at a suburban site (Yufa during the CAREBeijing 2006 campaign in Beijing, using a volatility tandem differential mobility analyzer (VTDMA. Particles in this size range with non-volatile residuals at 300 °C were considered to be soot particles. On average, the number fraction of internally mixed soot in total soot particles (Fin, decreased from 0.80 to 0.57 when initial Dp increased from 30 to 320 nm. Further analysis reveals that: (1 Fin was well correlated with the aerosol hygroscopic mixing state measured by a CCN counter. More externally mixed soot particles were observed when particles showed more heterogeneous features with regard to hygroscopicity. (2 Fin had pronounced diurnal cycles. For particles in the accumulation mode (Dp at 100–320 nm, largest Fin were observed at noon time, with "apparent" turnover rates (kex → in up to 7.8% h−1. (3 Fin was subject to competing effects of both aging and emissions. While aging increases Fin by converting externally mixed soot particles into internally mixed ones, emissions tend to reduce Fin by emitting more fresh and externally mixed soot particles. Similar competing effects were also found with air mass age indicators. (4 Under the estimated emission

  20. Water Soluble Organic Nitrogen (WSON) in Ambient Fine Particles Over a Megacity in South China: Spatiotemporal Variations and Source Apportionment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xu; Yu, Qingqing; Zhu, Ming; Tang, Mingjin; Li, Sheng; Yang, Weiqiang; Zhang, Yanli; Deng, Wei; Li, Guanghui; Yu, Yuegang; Huang, Zhonghui; Song, Wei; Ding, Xiang; Hu, Qihou; Li, Jun; Bi, Xinhui; Wang, Xinming

    2017-12-01

    Organic nitrogen aerosols are complex mixtures and important compositions in ambient fine particulate matters (PM2.5), yet their sources and spatiotemporal patterns are not well understood particularly in regions influenced by intensive human activities. In this study, filter-based ambient PM2.5 samples at four stations (one urban, two rural, plus one urban roadside) and PM samples from combustion sources (vehicle exhaust, ship emission, and biomass burning) were collected in the coastal megacity Guangzhou, south China, for determining water soluble organic nitrogen (WSON) along with other organic and inorganic species. The annual average WSON concentrations, as well as the ratios of WSON to water soluble total nitrogen, were all significantly higher at rural sites than urban sites. Average WSON concentrations at the four sites during the wet season were quite near each other, ranging from 0.41 to 0.49 μg/m3; however, they became 2 times higher at the rural sites than at the urban sites during the dry season. Five major sources for WSON were identified through positive matrix factorization analysis. Vehicle emission (29.3%), biomass burning (22.8%), and secondary formation (20.2%) were three dominant sources of WSON at the urban station, while vehicle emission (45.4%) and dust (28.6%) were two dominant sources at the urban roadside station. At the two rural sites biomass burning (51.1% and 34.1%, respectively) and secondary formation (17.8% and 30.5%, respectively) were dominant sources of WSON. Ship emission contributed 8-12% of WSON at the four sites. Natural vegetation seemed to have very minor contribution to WSON.

  1. Variability of SO₂, CO, and light hydrocarbons over a megacity in Eastern India: effects of emissions and transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallik, Chinmay; Ghosh, Dipanjan; Ghosh, Debreka; Sarkar, Ujjaini; Lal, Shyam; Venkataramani, S

    2014-01-01

    The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) has received extensive attention of the global scientific community due to higher levels of trace gases and aerosols over this region. Satellite retrievals and model simulations show that, in particular, the eastern part IGP is highly polluted. Despite this attention, in situ measurements of trace gases are very limited over this region. This paper presents measurements of SO₂, CO, CH₄, and C₂-C₅ NMHCs during March 2012-February 2013 over Kolkata, a megacity in the eastern IGP, with a focus on processes impacting their levels. The mean SO₂ and C2H6 concentrations during winter and post-monsoon periods were eight and three times higher compared to pre-monsoon and monsoon. Early morning enhancements in SO₂ and several NMHCs during winter connote boundary layer effects. Daytime elevations in SO₂ during pre-monsoon and monsoon suggest impacts of photo-oxidation. Inter-species correlations and trajectory analysis evince transport of SO₂ from regional combustion sources (e.g., coal burning in power plants, industries) along the east of the Indo-Gangetic plain impacting SO₂ levels at the site. However, C₂H₂ to CO ratio over Kolkata, which are comparable to other urban regions in India, show impacts of local biofuel combustions. Further, high levels of C₃H₈ and C₄H₁₀ evince the dominance of LPG/petrochemicals over the study location. The suite of trace gases measured during this study helps to decipher between impacts of local emissions and influence of transport on their levels.

  2. Pocket money, eating behaviors, and weight status among Chinese children: The Childhood Obesity Study in China mega-cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Miao; Xue, Hong; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Yaling; Wang, Zhiyong; Xu, Fei; Wang, Youfa

    2017-07-01

    Both the obesity rate and pocket money are rising among children in China. This study examined family correlates of children's pocket money, associations of pocket money with eating behaviors and weight status, and how the associations may be modified by schools' unhealthy food restrictions in urban China. Data were collected in 2015 from 1648 students in 16 primary and middle schools in four mega-cities in China (4 schools/city): Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Xi'an. Cluster robust negative binomial regression models were fit to assess family correlates of pocket money, associations of pocket money with child eating behaviors and weight outcomes, and possible modifying effects of schools' unhealthy food restrictions. Sixty-nine percent of students received pocket money weekly. Students received more pocket money if mothers frequently ate out of home (IRR=2.28 [1.76, 2.94]) and/or family rarely had dinner together (IRR=1.42, 95%=[1.01, 1.99]). Students got less pocket money if parents were concerned about child's future health due to unhealthy eating (IRR=0.56 [0.32,0.98]). Students with more pocket money more frequently consumed (by 25-89%) sugary beverages, snacks, fast food, or at street food stalls, and were 45-90% more likely to be overweight/obese. Associations of pocket money with unhealthy eating and overweight/obesity were weaker in schools with unhealthy food restrictions. Pocket money is a risk factor for unhealthy eating and obesity in urban China. School policies may buffer pocket money's negative influence on students' eating and weight status. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Seasonal characteristics, formation mechanisms and source origins of PM2.5 in two megacities in Sichuan Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huanbo; Tian, Mi; Chen, Yang; Shi, Guangming; Liu, Yuan; Yang, Fumo; Zhang, Leiming; Deng, Liqun; Yu, Jiayan; Peng, Chao; Cao, Xuyao

    2018-01-01

    To investigate the characteristics of PM2.5 and its major chemical components, formation mechanisms, and geographical origins in the two megacities, Chengdu (CD) and Chongqing (CQ), in Sichuan Basin of southwest China, daily PM2.5 samples were collected simultaneously at one urban site in each city for four consecutive seasons from autumn 2014 to summer 2015. Annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 were 67.0 ± 43.4 and 70.9 ± 41.4 µg m-3 at CD and CQ, respectively. Secondary inorganic aerosol (SNA) and organic matter (OM) accounted for 41.1 and 26.1 % of PM2.5 mass at CD, and 37.4 and 29.6 % at CQ, respectively. Seasonal variations of PM2.5 and major chemical components were significant, usually with the highest mass concentration in winter and the lowest in summer. Daily PM2.5 concentration exceeded the national air quality standard on 30 % of the sampling days at both sites, and most of the pollution events were at the regional scale within the basin formed under stagnant meteorological conditions. The concentrations of carbonaceous components were higher at CQ than CD, likely partially caused by emissions from the large number of motorcycles and the spraying processes used during automobile production in CQ. Heterogeneous reactions probably played an important role in the formation of SO42-, while both homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions contributed to the formation of NO3-. Geographical origins of emissions sources contributing to high PM2.5 masses at both sites were identified to be mainly distributed within the basin based on potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis.

  4. Assessing the ammonium nitrate formation regime in the Paris megacity and its representation in the CHIMERE model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Petetin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Secondary inorganic compounds represent a major fraction of fine aerosol in the Paris megacity. The thermodynamics behind their formation is now relatively well constrained but, due to sparse direct measurements of their precursors (in particular NH3 and HNO3, uncertainties remain on their concentrations and variability as well as the formation regime of ammonium nitrate (in terms of limited species among NH3 and HNO3 in urban environments such as Paris. This study presents the first urban background measurements of both inorganic aerosol compounds and their gaseous precursors during several months within the city of Paris. Intense agriculture-related NH3 episodes are observed in spring/summer while HNO3 concentrations remain relatively low, even during summer, which leads to a NH3-rich regime in Paris. The local formation of ammonium nitrate within the city appears low, despite high NOx emissions. The data set also allows evaluating the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model (CTM. Interestingly, the rather good results obtained on ammonium nitrates hide significant errors on gaseous precursors (e.g., mean bias of −75 and +195 % for NH3 and HNO3, respectively. This leads to a misrepresentation of the nitrate formation regime through a highly underestimated gas ratio metric (introduced by Ansari and Pandis, 1998 and a much higher sensitivity of nitrate concentrations to ammonia changes. Several uncertainty sources are investigated, pointing out the importance of better assessing both NH3 agricultural emissions and OH concentrations in the future. These results remind us of the caution required when using of CTMs for emission scenario analysis, highlighting the importance of prior diagnostic and dynamic evaluations.

  5. Air quality in the megacity of São Paulo: Evolution over the last 30 years and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Maria de Fatima; Kumar, Prashant; de Freitas, Edmilson Dias; Ynoue, Rita Yuri; Martins, Jorge; Martins, Leila D.; Nogueira, Thiago; Perez-Martinez, Pedro; de Miranda, Regina Maura; Albuquerque, Taciana; Gonçalves, Fabio Luiz Teixeira; Oyama, Beatriz; Zhang, Yang

    2017-06-01

    We present a comprehensive review of published results from the last 30 years regarding the sources and atmospheric characteristics of particles and ozone in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). During the last 30 years, many efforts have been made to describe the emissions sources and to analyse the primary and secondary formation of pollutants under a process of increasing urbanisation in the metropolitan area. From the occurrence of frequent violations of air quality standards in the 1970s and 1980s (due to the uncontrolled air pollution sources) to a substantial decrease in the concentrations of the primary pollutants, many regulations have been imposed and enforced, although those concentrations do not yet conform to the World Health Organization guidelines. The greatest challenge currently faced by the São Paulo State Environmental Protection Agency and the local community is controlling secondary pollutants such as ozone and fine particles. Understanding the formation of these secondary pollutants, by experimental or modelling approaches, requires the description of the atmospheric chemical processes driven by biofuel, ethanol and biodiesel emissions. Exposure to air pollution is the cause of many injuries to human health, according to many studies performed not only in the region but also worldwide, and affects susceptible populations such as children and the elderly. The MASP is the biggest megacity in the Southern Hemisphere, and its specifics are important for other urban areas that are facing the challenge of intensive growth that puts pressure on natural resources and worsens the living conditions in urban areas. This text discusses how imposing regulations on air quality and emission sources, mainly related to the transportation sector, has affected the evolution of pollutant concentrations in the MASP.

  6. View From a Megacity: Aerosol Light Absorption and Scattering at Four Sites in and Near Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes-Miranda, G.; Arnott, W. P.; Gaffney, J. S.; Marley, N. A.

    2006-12-01

    As part of the Megacity Impacts on Regional and Global Environments, MIRAGE-Mex deployment to Mexico City in the period of 30 days, March 2006, a suite of photoacoustic spectrometers (PAS) were installed to measure at ground level the light absorption and scattering by aerosols at four sites: an urban site at Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo (Mexican Oil Institute, denoted by IMP), a suburban site at the Technological University of Tecamac, a rural site at "La Biznaga" ranch, and a site at the Paseo de Cortes (altitude 3,810 meters ASL) in the rural area above Amecameca in the State of Mexico, on the saddle between the volcanoes Popocatepetl and Iztaccihuatl. The IMP site gave in-situ characterization of the Mexico City plume under favorable wind conditions while the other sites provided characterization of the plume, mixed in with any local sources. The second and third sites are north of Mexico City, and the fourth site is south. The PAS used at IMP operates at 532 nm, and conveniently allowed for characterization of gaseous absorption at this wavelength as well. Instruments at the second and third sites operate at 870 nm, and the one at the fourth site at 780 nm. Light scattering measurements are accomplished within the PAS by the reciprocal nephelometery method. In the urban site the aerosol absorption coefficient typically varies between 40 and 250 Mm-1 during the course of the day and significant diurnal variation of the aerosol single scattering albedo was observed. Comparisons with TSI nephelometer scattering and Aetholemeter absorption measurements at the T0 site will be presented. We will present a broad overview of the diurnal variation of the scattering and absorption as well as the single scattering albedo and fraction of absorption due to gases at the IMP site. Insight on the dynamical connections will be discussed.

  7. Simulating the formation of carbonaceous aerosol in a European Megacity (Paris during the MEGAPOLI summer and winter campaigns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Fountoukis

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We use a three-dimensional regional chemical transport model (PMCAMx with high grid resolution and high-resolution emissions (4 × 4 km2 over the Paris greater area to simulate the formation of carbonaceous aerosol during a summer (July 2009 and a winter (January/February 2010 period as part of the MEGAPOLI (megacities: emissions, urban, regional, and global atmospheric pollution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation campaigns. Model predictions of carbonaceous aerosol are compared against Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer and black carbon (BC high time resolution measurements from three ground sites. PMCAMx predicts BC concentrations reasonably well reproducing the majority (70 % of the hourly data within a factor of two during both periods. The agreement for the summertime secondary organic aerosol (OA concentrations is also encouraging (mean bias = 0.1 µg m−3 during a photochemically intense period. The model tends to underpredict the summertime primary OA concentrations in the Paris greater area (by approximately 0.8 µg m−3 mainly due to missing primary OA emissions from cooking activities. The total cooking emissions are estimated to be approximately 80 mg d−1 per capita and have a distinct diurnal profile in which 50 % of the daily cooking OA is emitted during lunch time (12:00–14:00 LT and 20 % during dinner time (20:00–22:00 LT. Results also show a large underestimation of secondary OA in the Paris greater area during wintertime (mean bias =  −2.3 µg m−3 pointing towards a secondary OA formation process during low photochemical activity periods that is not simulated in the model.

  8. Health risk assessment of exposure to the Middle-Eastern Dust storms in the Iranian megacity of Kermanshah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudarzi, G; Daryanoosh, S M; Godini, H; Hopke, P K; Sicard, P; De Marco, A; Rad, H D; Harbizadeh, A; Jahedi, F; Mohammadi, M J; Savari, J; Sadeghi, S; Kaabi, Z; Omidi Khaniabadi, Y

    2017-07-01

    This study assessed the effects of particulate matter (PM), equal or less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10 ), from the Middle-Eastern Dust events on public health in the megacity of Kermanshah (Iran). This study used epidemiological modeling and monitored ambient air quality data to estimate the potential PM 10 impacts on public health. The AirQ2.2.3 model was used to calculate mortality and morbidity attributed to PM 10 as representative of dust events. Using Visual Basic for Applications, the programming language of Excel software, hourly PM 10 concentrations obtained from the local agency were processed to prepare input files for the AirQ2.2.3 model. Using baseline incidence, defined by the World Health Organization, the number of estimated excess cases for respiratory mortality, hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, for respiratory diseases, and for cardiovascular diseases were 37, 39, 476, and 184 persons, respectively, from 21st March, 2014 to 20th March, 2015. Furthermore, 92% of mortality and morbidity cases occurred in days with PM 10 concentrations lower than 150 μg/m 3 . The highest percentage of person-days occurred for daily concentrations range of 100-109 μg/m 3 , causing the maximum health end-points among the citizens of Kermanshah. Calculating the number of cumulative excess cases for mortality or morbidity attributed to PM 10 provides a good tool for decision and policy-makers in the field of health care to compensate their shortcomings particularly at hospital and healthcare centers for combating dust storms. To diminish these effects, several immediate actions should be managed in the governmental scale to control dust such as spreading mulch and planting new species that are compatible to arid area. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. All rights reserved.

  9. Seasonal characteristics, formation mechanisms and source origins of PM2.5 in two megacities in Sichuan Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the characteristics of PM2.5 and its major chemical components, formation mechanisms, and geographical origins in the two megacities, Chengdu (CD and Chongqing (CQ, in Sichuan Basin of southwest China, daily PM2.5 samples were collected simultaneously at one urban site in each city for four consecutive seasons from autumn 2014 to summer 2015. Annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 were 67.0 ± 43.4 and 70.9 ± 41.4 µg m−3 at CD and CQ, respectively. Secondary inorganic aerosol (SNA and organic matter (OM accounted for 41.1 and 26.1 % of PM2.5 mass at CD, and 37.4 and 29.6 % at CQ, respectively. Seasonal variations of PM2.5 and major chemical components were significant, usually with the highest mass concentration in winter and the lowest in summer. Daily PM2.5 concentration exceeded the national air quality standard on 30 % of the sampling days at both sites, and most of the pollution events were at the regional scale within the basin formed under stagnant meteorological conditions. The concentrations of carbonaceous components were higher at CQ than CD, likely partially caused by emissions from the large number of motorcycles and the spraying processes used during automobile production in CQ. Heterogeneous reactions probably played an important role in the formation of SO42−, while both homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions contributed to the formation of NO3−. Geographical origins of emissions sources contributing to high PM2.5 masses at both sites were identified to be mainly distributed within the basin based on potential source contribution function (PSCF analysis.

  10. Development and Evaluation of a Comprehensive Atmospheric Emission Inventory for Air Quality Modeling in the Megacity of Bogotá

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge E. Pachón

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We built an emission inventory (EI for the megacity of Bogotá, Colombia for 2012, which for the first time augments traditional industrial and mobile sources by including commercial sources, biogenic sources, and resuspended dust. We characterized the methodologies for estimating each source annually, and allocated the sources to hourly and 1 km2 spatial resolution for use as inputs for air quality modeling purposes. A resuspended particulate matter (RPM emission estimate was developed using the first measurements of road dust loadings and silt content for the city. Results show that mobile sources dominate emissions of CO2 (80%, CO (99%, VOC (68%, NOx (95%, and SO2 (85%. However, the newly estimated RPM comprises 90% of total PM10 emissions, which are at least onefold larger than the PM10 emissions from combustion processes. The 2012 EI was implemented in a chemical transport model (CTM in order to understand the pollutants’ fate and transport. Model evaluation was conducted against observations from the city’s air quality monitoring network in two different periods. Modeling results for O3 concentrations showed a good agreement, with mean fractional bias (MFB of +11%, and a mean fractional error (MFE of +35% with observations, but simulated PM10 concentrations were strongly biased high (MFB +57%, MFE +68%, which was likely due to RPM emissions being overestimated. NOx, CO, and SO2 were also biased high by the model, which was probably due to emissions not reflecting current fleet conditions. Future work aims to revise emission factors for mobile sources, which are the main sources of pollutants to the atmosphere.

  11. Simulating the formation of carbonaceous aerosol in a European Megacity (Paris) during the MEGAPOLI summer and winter campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fountoukis, Christos; Megaritis, Athanasios G.; Skyllakou, Ksakousti; Charalampidis, Panagiotis E.; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Crippa, Monica; Prévôt, André S. H.; Fachinger, Friederike; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Pilinis, Christodoulos; Pandis, Spyros N.

    2016-03-01

    We use a three-dimensional regional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) with high grid resolution and high-resolution emissions (4 × 4 km2) over the Paris greater area to simulate the formation of carbonaceous aerosol during a summer (July 2009) and a winter (January/February 2010) period as part of the MEGAPOLI (megacities: emissions, urban, regional, and global atmospheric pollution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) campaigns. Model predictions of carbonaceous aerosol are compared against Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer and black carbon (BC) high time resolution measurements from three ground sites. PMCAMx predicts BC concentrations reasonably well reproducing the majority (70 %) of the hourly data within a factor of two during both periods. The agreement for the summertime secondary organic aerosol (OA) concentrations is also encouraging (mean bias = 0.1 µg m-3) during a photochemically intense period. The model tends to underpredict the summertime primary OA concentrations in the Paris greater area (by approximately 0.8 µg m-3) mainly due to missing primary OA emissions from cooking activities. The total cooking emissions are estimated to be approximately 80 mg d-1 per capita and have a distinct diurnal profile in which 50 % of the daily cooking OA is emitted during lunch time (12:00-14:00 LT) and 20 % during dinner time (20:00-22:00 LT). Results also show a large underestimation of secondary OA in the Paris greater area during wintertime (mean bias = -2.3 µg m-3) pointing towards a secondary OA formation process during low photochemical activity periods that is not simulated in the model.

  12. Growing hairs in shorn cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecília José Veríssimo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The shearing operation can provide double benefits to the cattle: they can become more heat tolerant and the tick infestation decreases. The cattle tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus microplus causes great losses to dairy cattle, especially to the Holstein cattle because they are very susceptible to this tick. Its control is becoming each day more difficult, owing to the increasing resistance to acaricides they are acquiring. The objective of this work was to study the growing of haircoat following shearing. We made our experiment with 17 animals, 7 females and 10 males. They were shaved on the anterior third (head, neck, dewlap, scapula and arm of one side, at random. The work was performed in two steps: they were shorn for the first time on August 2nd 2012, with a size 10 blade in a clipper Oster model GoldenA5, which left the fur coat 2 mm long. Then we evaluated the hair length growing by collecting fortnightly three sample of hairs in the middle of the scapula, with  electric pliers, modified for this purpose, in both sides of the animals, sheared and non-sheared, until 30 days after this shearing. The three hair samples were put inside a little plastic bag per animal. Meanwhile, as we thought that the animals shearing had to be done closer to the skin, we decided to shear them again (in the same side shorn before, on October 2nd 2012. We changed our procedure using the same machine, but now with a blade size 30, which left the fur coat 1mm thick. After that, we collected again, fortnightly, samples of hairs on both sides during 2 months. The 10 longest hairs in the plastig bag were measured using a graph paper and the average per animal was calculated in each data and blade. A random design was applied for statistical analysis, the hair length of both sides, sheared and non sheared were compared by a two related samples tests – Wilcoxon, in a non parametric test, using the SPSSP 12.0 program, in each data within each blade. Using blade size

  13. Global energy demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatcher, S.R.

    1999-01-01

    Perhaps the most compelling issue the world will face in the next century is the quality of life of the increasing populations of the poorer regions of the world. Energy is the key to generating wealth and protecting the environment. Today, most of the energy generated comes from fossil fuels and there should be enough for an increase in consumption over the next half century. However, this is likely to be impacted by the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions. Various authoritative studies lead to a global energy demand projection of between 850 to 1070 EJ per year in the mid-21 st century, which is nearly three times as much as the world uses today. The studies further indicate that, unless there is a major thrust by governments to create incentives and/or to levy heavy taxes, the use of fossil fuels will continue to increase and there will be a major increase in carbon dioxide emissions globally. Most of the increase will come from the newly industrializing countries which do not have the technology or financial resources to install non-carbon energy sources such as nuclear power, and the new renewable energy technologies. The real issue for the nuclear industry is investment cost. Developing countries, in particular will have difficulty in raising capital for energy projects with a high installed cost and will have difficulties in raising large blocks of capital. A reduction in investment costs of the order of 50% with a short construction schedule is in order if nuclear power is to compete and contribute significantly to energy supply and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Current nuclear power plants and methods are simply not suited to the production of plants that will compete in this situation. Mass production designs are needed to get the benefits of cost reduction. Water cooled reactors are well demonstrated and positioned to achieve the cost reduction necessary but only via some radical thinking on the part of the designers. The reactors of

  14. Promotion and Fast Food Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy J. Richards; Luis Padilla

    2009-01-01

    Many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in North America. Industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand. We study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete / continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand. Estimates are obtained using a unique...

  15. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...

  16. Job demands-resources model

    OpenAIRE

    Bakker, Arnold; Demerouti, Eva

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerouti, 2007; Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner, & Schaufeli, 2001) and is inspired by job design and job stress theories. JD-R theory explains how job demands and resources have unique and multiplicative e...

  17. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  18. North American oil demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.B.

    1995-01-01

    An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

  19. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  20. Quantification of CO2 and CH4 megacity emissions using portable solar absorption spectrometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Matthias; Hase, Frank; Blumenstock, Thomas; Morino, Isamu; Shiomi, Kei

    2017-04-01

    Urban areas already contribute to over 50% of the global population, additionally the percentage of the worldwide population living in Metropolitan areas is continuously growing. Thus, a precise knowledge of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is of utmost importance. Whereas, however, GHG emissions on a nationwide to continental scale can be relatively precisely estimated using satellite observations (and fossil fuel consumption statistics), reliable estimations for local to regional scale emissions pose a bigger problem due to lack of timely and spatially high resolved satellite data and possible biases of passive spectroscopic nadir observations (e.g. enhanced aerosol scattering in a city plume). Furthermore, emission inventories on the city scale might be missing contributions (e.g. methane leakage from gas pipes). Here, newly developed mobile low resolution Fourier Transform spectrometers (Bruker EM27/SUN) are utilized to quantify small scale emissions. This novel technique was successfully tested before by KIT and partners during campaigns in Berlin, Paris and Colorado for detecting emissions from various sources. We present results from a campaign carried out in February - April 2016 in the Tokyo bay area, one of the biggest Metropolitan areas worldwide. We positioned two EM27/SUN spectrometers on the outer perimeter of Tokyo along the prevailing wind axis upwind and downwind of the city source. Before and after the campaign, calibration measurements were performed in Tsukuba with a collocated high resolution FTIR spectrometer from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). During the campaign the observed XCO2 and XCH4 values vary significantly. Additionally, intraday variations are observed at both sites. Furthermore, an enhancement due to the Tokyo area GHG emissions is clearly visible for both XCO2 and XCH4. The observed signals are significantly higher compared to prior campaigns targeting other major cities. We perform a rough estimate of the

  1. Protein nutrition of growing cattle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chalupa, W.; Scott, G.C.

    1976-01-01

    In vitro studies on apparent degradation of amino acids by mixed and pure cultures of rumen bacteria demonstrated that (a) amino acids are degraded at differing rates (Arg, Thr>Lys, Phe, Leu, Ile>Val, Met); (b) certain amino acids (Met, Val, Try, Orn) are degraded to greater extents when fermented alone than in conjunction with other amino acids; (c) individual strains of rumen bacteria do not utilize all amino acids; and (d) total ruminal degradation of amino acids is the result of extensive bacterial interaction, and may vary greatly depending on the predominant types of micro-organisms present. Abomasal infusion of a mixture of 10 essential amino acids consistently increased nitrogen retention, but attempts to elucidate primary limiting amino acids were not conclusive. Our data suggested that supplementary methionine alone may not significantly increase nitrogen retention, but methionine must be present in order to obtain responses from other amino acids. Methionine plus lysine plus threonine usually increased nitrogen retention, but the magnitude of responses varied. The classical nitrogen balance technique may lack the sensitivity needed to detect small responses resulting from supplements of single amino acids, or growing cattle, unlike sheep used for wool growth, may not be suffering from specific amino acid deficiencies. Chemical suppression of ruminal degradation of amino acids produced significant increases in nitrogen retention and growth, and improved feed efficiencies. Productivity responses to rumen bypass techniques would seem to depend primarily upon (a) the degree to which dietary protein is degraded in the rumen, and (b) the quantity of absorbable amino acids supplied by the diet in relation to quantities required by the animal. (author)

  2. Analysis of Attraction Features of Tourism Destinations in a Mega-City Based on Check-in Data Mining—A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihui Gu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Location-based service information, provided by social networks, provides new data sources and perspectives to research tourism activities, especially in highly populated mega-cities. Based on three years (2012–2014 of approximately 340,000 check-in records collected from Sina micro-blog at 86 tourist attractions in Shenzhen, a first-tier city in southern China, we conducted a comprehensive study of the attraction features involving different aspects, such as tourist source, duration of stay, check-in activity index, and attraction correlation degree. The results showed that (1 theme parks established in the early 1990s were the most popular tourist attractions in Shenzhen, but a negative trend was detected in the check-in population; (2 compared with check-in times from surrounding activities and the kernel density of tourists, most destinations in Shenzhen showed a lack of attraction, failing to make the most of their geographic accessibility; and (3 the homogeneity and inconvenient traffic conditions of major tourist destinations leading to the construction of a tourism tour chain has become a challenge. The results of this study demonstrate the potential of big-data mining and provide valuable insights into tourism market design and management in mega-cities.

  3. The crisis of the core seen through the eyes of the periphery: A Schelling model of the global-south megacity and the European crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dymski Gary A.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Adapting Schelling’s checker-board discrimination framework, we develop a disequilibrium model to examine growth in two core-periphery settings: global-South megacities and the Eurozone. Regarding megacities, informal sector growth undercuts the government’s capacity to fund fully adequate public services. Regarding the Eurozone, an increase in the relative size of the periphery will - under the government’s balanced-budget constraint - undercut the provision of public safety-net and infrastructure services. And if low-wage production is initiated in the European periphery, the core is likely to collapse. “Urbanization is decisive because it is so expensive. The difference between the costs of urban development and rural development does not turn on comparing the capital required for factories and that required for farms. Each of these is a small part of total investment, and the difference per head is not always in favor of industry. The difference turns on infrastructure.” W. Arthur Lewis (1977, pp. 39-40.

  4. How Your Fetus Grows During Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Patients About ACOG How Your Fetus Grows During Pregnancy Home For Patients Search FAQs How Your Fetus ... 2018 PDF Format How Your Fetus Grows During Pregnancy Pregnancy How does pregnancy begin? What is the ...

  5. Menopausal women's positive experience of growing older

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvas, Lotte

    2006-01-01

    This paper aims to describe menopausal women's positive experience of growing older and becoming middle-aged.......This paper aims to describe menopausal women's positive experience of growing older and becoming middle-aged....

  6. Spatial-temporal Detection of Sea-breeze Penetration Over Megacities from Himawari-8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdiansyah, M. R.; Inagaki, A.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    in Serpong area, a rapidly growing urban area occupying the western region of Jakarta. On-going work is being conducted to expand the number of coastal cities for analyses.Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  7. Harnessing the power of demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheffrin, Anjali; Yoshimura, Henry; LaPlante, David; Neenan, Bernard

    2008-03-15

    Demand response can provide a series of economic services to the market and also provide ''insurance value'' under low-likelihood, but high-impact circumstances in which grid reliablity is enhanced. Here is how ISOs and RTOs are fostering demand response within wholesale electricity markets. (author)

  8. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  9. Coal background paper. Coal demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Statistical data are presented on coal demands in IEA and OECD member countries and in other countries. Coal coaking and coaking coal consumption data are tabulated, and IEA secretariat's coal demand projections are summarized. Coal supply and production data by countries are given. Finally, coal trade data are presented, broken down for hard coal, steam coal, coking coal (imports and export). (R.P.)

  10. Uranium resources, demand and production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stipanicic, P.N.

    1985-05-01

    Estimations of the demand and production of principal uranium resource categories are presented. The estimations based on data analysis made by a joint 'NEA/IAEA Working Party on Uranium Resources' and the corresponding results are published by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in the 'Uranium Resources, Production and Demand' Known as 'Red Book'. (M.C.K.) [pt

  11. Demand differentiation in inventory systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijn, M.J.

    1998-01-01

    This book deals with inventory systems where customer demand is categorised into different classes. Most inventory systems do not take into account individual customer preferences for a given product, and therefore handle all demand in a similar way. Nowadays, market segmentation has become a

  12. Demand Response in Smart Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Annaswamy, Anuradha M.

    2014-01-01

    In recent decades, moves toward higher integration of Renewable Energy Resources have called for fundamental changes in both the planning and operation of the overall power grid. One such change is the incorporation of Demand Response (DR), the process by which consumers can adjust their demand...

  13. Credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byiers, Bruce; Rand, John; Tarp, Finn

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses two industrial firm surveys to identify the key determinants of credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing. We construct five different measures of being credit constrained and estimate desired debt demand. Besides firm size and ownership structure, we find evidence that general...

  14. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker &

  15. Residential energy demand in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arouca, M.; Gomes, F.M.; Rosa, L.P.

    1981-01-01

    The energy demand in Brazilian residential sector is studied, discussing the methodology for analyzing this demand from some ideas suggested, for developing an adequate method to brazilian characteristics. The residential energy consumption of several fuels in Brazil is also presented, including a comparative evaluation with the United States and France. (author)

  16. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Togeby, Mikael; Østergaard, Jacob

    This report summaries the research outcomes of the project ‘Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve (DFR)’, which has received the support from Energinet.dk’s PSO program, Grant no. 2005-2-6380. The objective of this project is to investigate the technology of using electricity demands for providing...

  17. Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

    2012-03-01

    -credentialed dietetics practitioners declined from 3% in the early 1990s to 1.5% by 2010. • The net supply of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners is projected to grow by 1.1% annually. • Approximately 75% of the demand for the dietetics workforce will be met by the 2020 supply of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners. • The aging population, health care reform, increased prevalence of certain conditions (including obesity), and growth in the food industry are key factors affecting the demand. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Growing Chinese coal use: Dramatic resource and environmental implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shealy, Malcolm; Dorian, James P.

    2010-01-01

    Chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country's economy and industry expand. Coal is particularly critical for China's fast-growing power sector, generating about 80% of electricity output. Notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity, many international forecasts today underestimate their rising use in China. This paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and assumes that Chinese GDP growth to 2025 will not again approach double-digit levels. Using the scenario analysis, this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about Chinese GDP growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025, the country will likely experience much higher coal demand and emit much greater volumes of carbon dioxide than forecast by various international energy agencies. The paper also analyzes how China's domestic coal reserves may be threatened within two decades, possibly affecting long-term economic growth in China, as well as world coal prices.

  19. Continental integration and energy demand in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, D.J.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation highlighted some of the major issues regarding energy demand in the United States and continental integration. The energy markets in Canada and the United States are economically integrated with large cross-border investment. Therefore, the energy infrastructure can be significantly affected by inconsistencies between the two countries in policy, regulatory processes and fiscal regimes. The author discussed the inelasticity in the natural gas demand in the United States in the near-term, and how natural gas consumption, particularly for power generation, is greater than North America's supply capacity. New supplies such as liquefied natural gas and arctic gas are needed to meet growing demands. The role of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency was also discussed. It was emphasized that imbalances in supply and demand inevitably lead to price volatility and that high prices are a major obstacle to economic growth. tabs., figs

  20. Natural ingredients for darker skin types: growing options for hyperpigmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexis, Andrew F; Blackcloud, Paul

    2013-09-01

    Dyschromia is one of the most common dermatological concerns in patients with darker skin.1 Disorders of hyperpigmentation, including postinflammatory hyperpigmentation, melasma, solar lentigines, and miscellaneous causes of facial hyperpigmentation, are the most frequently treated dyschromias and can have a considerable psychosocial impact. Given the high prevalence of hyperpigmentation and the considerable demand for an even complexion, newer treatment options for hyperpigmentation are of growing interest among consumers, manufacturers, and dermatologists. Blinded, controlled studies demonstrating skin lightening effects in soy, niacinamide, n-acetylglucosamine, licorice extract, arbutin, vitamin c, kojic acid, emblica extract, lignin peroxidase, and glutathione have led to the development of a growing list of non-prescription skin care products that can be incorporated (mostly as adjuncts) in the management of hyperpigmentation.

  1. Nutritional studies on growing rabbits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, A.M.E.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    This work was carried out to study the effect of adding drinking water with either, copper sulfate, ascorbic acid or drinking cooled water on growth performance (live body weight,body weight gain, feed intake, feed conversion and water consumption), digestibility coefficients of nutrients, carcass traits, some physiological parameters and economical efficiency of growing NZW rabbits under Egyptian summer conditions. Ninety six weanling New Zealand White (NZW) male rabbits at five weeks of age and nearly similar average body weight (650.3 ±3.7 g) were randomly divided into eight treatment groups (twelve rabbits in each group), and then each group was subdivided into four replicates, each of three rabbits. The rabbits were assigned to drinking water as follow: the 1 st group was given fresh tap water without any additives as a control. The 2 n d, 3 r d and 4 t h groups were given tap fresh water supplemented with copper sulfate at levels of 40, 80 and 120 mg/L drinking water, respectively. The 5 t h, 6 t h and 7 t h groups were given tap fresh water supplemented with ascorbic acid at levels of 250, 500 and 750 mg/L drinking water, respectively. The 8 t h group was given cooled drinking water (CW) at 10-15 degree C. Results showed that supplementation of 40 or 80 mg copper sulfate/L or 500 mg ascorbic acid/L to heat-stressed rabbits drinking water improved final live body weight, body weight gain, daily water consumption, feed conversion ratio, performance index and economical efficiency. Hot carcass percentage was significantly (P<0.01) decreased with 80 mg/L copper sulfate and increased significantly (P<0.01) due to supplementation the drinking water with 250 mg ascorbic acid/L. Cooled water (10-15 degree C) improved significantly (P<0.01) each of final body weight, body weight gain, feed conversion ratio, performance index, economical efficiency and decreased significantly (P<0.01) each of hot carcass %, dressed weight %, heart %, total giblets %, rectal

  2. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  3. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  4. Pollution and health risk of potentially toxic metals in urban road dust in Nanjing, a mega-city of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Enfeng; Yan, Ting; Birch, Gavin; Zhu, Yuxin

    2014-01-01

    Spatial variations in concentrations of a suite of potentially toxic metals (Ba, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) and Ca in road dusts (n = 99) from urban trunk roads (TR) in Nanjing, a mega-city in China, were established. Metal pollution levels, sources and human health risk (non-carcinogenic) were studied. In contrast to previous studies, we labeled the indicative metals relating to non-exhaust traffic emissions by comparing metal pollution between crossroad and park road dusts, and then anthropogenic sources of metals in TR dusts were assessed combining their spatial pollution patterns, principal component analysis and Pb isotopic compositions. Results showed that the metals were enriched in TR dusts compared to background soil concentrations with mean enrichment factors (EFs) of 2.2–23, indicating considerable anthropogenic influence. The degrees of metal pollution ranged from minimal to extremely high and ranked by Ca > Cu > Pb ≈ Zn > Cr ≈ Fe > Ni ≈ Ba > Mn on average. Pollution of Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in TR dusts resulted primarily from industrial emissions (e.g., coal combustion and smelting) and high pollution levels were found close to suburb industrial complexes, whereas pollution of Ba and Ca was mainly related to construction/demolition sources and was generally distributed homogeneously. The relatively minor contribution of non-exhaust traffic emissions to metal pollution in TR dusts was considered to be due to overwhelming industrial and construction/demolition contributions, as well as to the dilution effect of natural soil particles. Ingestion appears to be the major route of exposure for road dust for both adults and children, followed by dermal contact. The non-carcinogenic health risk resulting from exposure to the potentially toxic metals in TR dusts was within the safe level based on the Hazard Index (HI), except in pollution hotspots where exposure to Pb, Cr, and Cu may be hazardous to children. - Highlights: • Pollution and

  5. CO2 emissions from a temperate drowned river valley estuary adjacent to an emerging megacity (Sydney Harbour)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, E. L.; Mulhearn, P. J.; Eyre, B. D.

    2017-06-01

    The Sydney Harbour Estuary is a large drowned river valley adjacent to Sydney, a large urban metropolis on track to become a megacity; estimated to reach a population of 10 million by 2100. Monthly underway surveys of surface water pCO2 were undertaken along the main channel and tributaries, from January to December 2013. pCO2 showed substantial spatio-temporal variability in the narrow high residence time upper and mid sections of the estuary, with values reaching a maximum of 5650 μatm in the upper reaches and as low as 173 μatm in the mid estuary section, dominated by respiration and photosynthesis respectively. The large lower estuary displayed less variability in pCO2 with values ranging from 343 to 544 μatm controlled mainly by tidal pumping and temperature. Air-water CO2 emissions reached a maximum of 181 mmol C m-2 d-1 during spring in the eutrophic upper estuary. After a summer high rainfall event nutrient-stimulated biological pumping promoted a large uptake of CO2 transitioning the Sydney Harbour Estuary into a CO2 sink with a maximum uptake of rate of -10.6 mmol C m-2 d-1 in the mid-section of the estuary. Annually the Sydney Harbour Estuary was heterotrophic and a weak source of CO2 with an air-water emission rate of 1.2-5 mmol C m-2 d-1 (0.4-1.8 mol C m-2 y-1) resulting in a total carbon emission of around 930 tonnes per annum. CO2 emissions (weighted m3 s-1 of discharge per km2 of estuary surface area) from Sydney Harbour were an order of magnitude lower than other temperate large tectonic deltas, lagoons and engineered systems of China, India, Taiwan and Europe but were similar to other natural drowned river valley systems in the USA. Discharge per unit area appears to be a good predictor of CO2 emissions from estuaries of a similar climate and geomorphic class.

  6. Tracking greenhouse gas emissions from a U.S. megacity by remote sensing from a mountaintop site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Clare; Fu, Dejian; Pongetti, Thomas; Newman, Sally; Kort, Eric; Duren, Riley; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Miller, Charles; Yung, Yuk; Sander, Stanley

    2014-05-01

    basin observed by the CLARS FTS from August 2011 to present. This work demonstrates the ability to quantify and track GHG emissions in a megacity using ground-based remote sensing from an elevated platform and the potential for future geostationary satellite missions, such as GCPI, to monitor carbon fluxes in cities. Copyright 2014. California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

  7. Pollution and health risk of potentially toxic metals in urban road dust in Nanjing, a mega-city of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Enfeng, E-mail: efliu@niglas.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Yan, Ting [State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Birch, Gavin [School of Geosciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Zhu, Yuxin [State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2014-04-01

    Spatial variations in concentrations of a suite of potentially toxic metals (Ba, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) and Ca in road dusts (n = 99) from urban trunk roads (TR) in Nanjing, a mega-city in China, were established. Metal pollution levels, sources and human health risk (non-carcinogenic) were studied. In contrast to previous studies, we labeled the indicative metals relating to non-exhaust traffic emissions by comparing metal pollution between crossroad and park road dusts, and then anthropogenic sources of metals in TR dusts were assessed combining their spatial pollution patterns, principal component analysis and Pb isotopic compositions. Results showed that the metals were enriched in TR dusts compared to background soil concentrations with mean enrichment factors (EFs) of 2.2–23, indicating considerable anthropogenic influence. The degrees of metal pollution ranged from minimal to extremely high and ranked by Ca > Cu > Pb ≈ Zn > Cr ≈ Fe > Ni ≈ Ba > Mn on average. Pollution of Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in TR dusts resulted primarily from industrial emissions (e.g., coal combustion and smelting) and high pollution levels were found close to suburb industrial complexes, whereas pollution of Ba and Ca was mainly related to construction/demolition sources and was generally distributed homogeneously. The relatively minor contribution of non-exhaust traffic emissions to metal pollution in TR dusts was considered to be due to overwhelming industrial and construction/demolition contributions, as well as to the dilution effect of natural soil particles. Ingestion appears to be the major route of exposure for road dust for both adults and children, followed by dermal contact. The non-carcinogenic health risk resulting from exposure to the potentially toxic metals in TR dusts was within the safe level based on the Hazard Index (HI), except in pollution hotspots where exposure to Pb, Cr, and Cu may be hazardous to children. - Highlights: • Pollution and

  8. Analysis of the Convective Storm using Meteosat Second Generation and SPOL Radar over a Megacity, on May 18, 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Júnior, Ivon Wilson; José Pereira Filho, Augusto; Alves Barbosa, Humberto

    2017-04-01

    from 1855 UTC to 1935 UTC. The thunderstorms main cores crossed MASP also due local circulations induced by the heat island. These results can contribute to the development of nowcasting tools and short-term warning systems by integrating satellite and weather radar data sets so to increase the resilience of megacities to such severe convective events.

  9. A survey of oil product demand elasticities for developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, Carol

    1994-01-01

    As more and more developing countries join the ranks of the rich they will consume both more oil and higher percentage of the lighter products. To satisfy this growing demand oil production and refinery capacity that can provide the right quantity and mix of products must be developed. In a companion piece, Dahl (1993) found the total demand for oil to be price inelastic (-0.34) and income elastic (1.32) These elasticities can give information on the total quantity of oil that might be demanded, the total amount of distillation capacity that might be needed and the overall increases in product prices that might be necessary to choke off demand growth. However, with this overall growth in product demand, the more the shift towards the lighter portion of the barrel, the more complex the refinery and the greater the demand for downstream capital. To provide information on this mix in developing countries in the coming years, this paper surveys the available work on econometric demand elasticities by oil product. (author)

  10. Impact of peak electricity demand in distribution grids: a stress test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogsteen, Gerwin; Molderink, Albert; Hurink, Johann L.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria; Schuring, Friso; Kootstra, Ben

    2015-01-01

    The number of (hybrid) electric vehicles is growing, leading to a higher demand for electricity in distribution grids. To investigate the effects of the expected peak demand on distribution grids, a stress test with 15 electric vehicles in a single street is conducted and described in this paper.

  11. Natural gas supply, demand and price outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas consumption in the US grew 15.9 percent between 1986 and 1989. Its share of total primary energy use in the US grew from 22.5 percent to 23.8 percent. Despite unusually warm weather and an economic downturn, natural gas use in the first eight months of 1990 fell only modestly from its 1989 pace - while its market share of US total primary energy use has remained stable. The American Gas Association's Total Energy Resource Analysis energy modeling system (A.G.A.-TERA) projects continued growth in natural gas demand and supply. Natural gas is projected to gain a growing share of total US primary use. Natural gas prices are projected to be sufficient to encourage growth in well completions and reserve additions, yet competitive with electricity, fuel oil and other alternative forms of energy

  12. An overview of the energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavergne, R.

    2009-01-01

    According to IEA the world demand for energy is likely to grow by 45% from now to 2030 if today's tendency is extrapolated and coal would represent the third of this energy increase. The world CO 2 releases might have grown by 55% in 2030 compared to today's releases. Today at the world scale, the sector that generates most greenhouse effect gases is the energy production (26%) followed by industry (19%). France's strategy concerning climate change and energy policy is recalled and fits with European Union's action plan. This action plan in the energy sector follows 6 axes: -) the setting of an European market of energy, -) +20% in energy efficiency by 2020, -) 20% of renewable energies in the energy mix by 2020, -) the development of a European technology for a low carbon future, -) the development of nuclear energy, and -) The setting of a European foreign energy policy. (A.C.)

  13. Analysis of Final Energy Demand by Sector in Malaysia using MAED Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, M.; Muhammed Zulfakar Mohd Zolkaffly; Alawiah Musa

    2011-01-01

    Energy supply security is important in ensuring a long term supply to fulfill the growing energy demand. This paper presents the use of IAEA energy planning tool, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to analyze, simulate and compare final energy demand by five different sectors in Malaysia under some assumptions, bounds and restrictions and the outcome can be used for planning of energy supply in future. (author)

  14. Impact of Mobility-on-Demand on Traffic Congestion: Simulation-based Study

    OpenAIRE

    Fiedler, David; Čáp, Michal; Čertický, Michal

    2017-01-01

    The increasing use of private vehicles for transportation in cities results in a growing demand for parking space and road network capacity. In many densely populated urban areas, however, the capacity of existing infrastructure is insufficient and extremely difficult to expand. Mobility-on-demand systems have been proposed as a remedy to the problem of limited parking space because they are able to satisfy the existing transportation demand with fewer shared vehicles and consequently require...

  15. Customers Sustainability Demand : A comparison between convenience goods and shopping goods

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Lisa; Höjman, Viktor; Elfqvist, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    In pace with a growing awareness among customers, so does the demand for sustainable products increase in various markets. Sustainability is even referred to become a mega-trend (Lubin & Esty, 2010). Although, extensive research can be found on sustainability and its three pillars; environment, social and economic, little is known whether there is a general customer demand for sustainability for any type of good. Therefore, this study’s purpose has been to compare sustainability demand fo...

  16. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  17. Demand, deregulation may attract more refiners to Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhodes, A.K.

    1995-01-01

    As a result of rapidly increasing demand, major oil companies are eyeing Asian oil and gas markets more closely than ever. Higher earnings can be expected there than in the US or Europe, where product markets--especially light products--are expected to tighten long-term. Of the nations with growing requirements for refined products, China and India offer greater opportunity for foreign investors to enter downstream projects. Also offering excellent business prospects are Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The paper discusses oil demand, products, refining capacity, and capacity additions in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China

  18. Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2013-01-01

    Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

  19. Energy demand: Facts and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chateau, B; Lapillonne, B

    1982-01-01

    The relationship between economic development and energy demand is investigated in this book. It gives a detailed analysis of the energy demand dynamics in industrialized countries and compares the past evolution of the driving factors behind energy demand by sector and by end-uses for the main OECD countries: residential sector (space heating, water heating, cooking...), tertiary sector, passenger and goods transport by mode, and industry (with particular emphasis on the steel and cement industry). This analysis leads to a more precise understanding of the long-term trends of energy demand; highlighting the influence on these trends of energy prices, especially after the oil price shocks, and of the type of economic development pattern.

  20. Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Pattern of demand for children in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, T

    1992-01-01

    The study aim was to determine the pattern of demand for children and to suggest ways to introduce the idea of a small-family norm and reduce the unmet need for contraception in Pakistan. The concept of demand for children included the wantedness of the last birth and the timing of the next birth and changed with stage in reproductive life cycle. Data were obtained from the Pakistan Contraception Prevalence Survey of 1984/85. Pakistan's strong patriarchal system emphasized rapid achievement of first pregnancy in order to assure the perpetuation of the lineage. Female status, even with advanced education, emphasized fecundity and producing a male heir. The birthing pattern among rural and urban lower-class women is to bear 3-4 children early in marriage. Evidence from prior surveys showed that educated women plan for a delay in second birth. Of the 6655 ever pregnant and nonsterilized women, about 48% of currently married women desired discontinuation of childbearing. 18% desired a delay of childbearing by 2 years and 10% desired no more children after a last undesired pregnancy. Unmet need was estimated at 17% of all women in the sample. Women desiring no more children were primarily older with 6-8 prior births. Indirect fertility estimates were generated by using Arriaga's techniques for stages of family formation. The resulting estimates showed that higher-parity women desiring no more children still had 2 more children, which was evidence of unmet need. Those desiring more children had higher fertility than those not desiring more children. These women also showed different patterns in their total demand for children, ideal family size, currently living children, and desire for their next birth. Ideal size tended to rise over the length of a marriage, which may mean that women with growing families may justify unwanted fertility. Duration of marriage was viewed as a reasonable indicator of need for fertility control and the concomitant need for outreach

  2. Demand Response Spinning Reserve Demonstration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.

    2007-05-01

    The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.

  3. Television Advertising and Soda Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Liu, Yizao; Zhu, Chen

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the effects of television advertising on consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks using a random coefficients logit model (BLP) with household and advertising data from seven U.S. cities over a three year period. We find that advertising decreases the price elasticity of demand, indicating that advertising plays predominantly a persuasive, therefore anti-competitive role in this market. Further results show that brand spillover effects are significant and that measuring ...

  4. Balancing supply and demand resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, J.; Saleeby, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    This article deals with using demand-side management (DSM) resources as an effective means of balancing supply and demand as a part of least-cost planning. The authors present a more sophisticated application of the load forecast adjustment method that reduces the number of DSM programs that need to be evaluated and provides blocks large enough to eliminate resolution problems in production costing models

  5. Physical and physiological demands of futsal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naser Naser

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Futsal, the 5-a-side version of soccer (i.e. 1 goalkeeper and 4 outfield players, was introduced in 1930 and continues to grow in popularity around the world. Competitive games comprise of two 20-min periods of high-intensity and intermittent activities requiring substantial physical, tactical, and technical efforts from the players. A greater understanding of the physical and skill requirements will aid the development of futsal and enable practitioners to undertake appropriate training regimes for the demands of the sport. The objective of this review is to examine key aspects of futsal such as match analysis, physiological demands, energy requirements, fitness measurements, and skill requirements. Futsal players experience fatigue as the game progresses due to the high-intensity nature of the game and the repeated maximal sprint efforts required. The intermittent nature of the sport necessitates the use of aerobic and anaerobic energy pathways throughout exercise. Therefore, a futsal player needs to have a great capacity of intermittent endurance, repeated sprint ability, and leg power, while technical aspects include the ability of high level shooting and passing skills, agility and coordination. Future research is warranted to help practitioners develop more specific tests into futsal performance, especially with regards skill.

  6. Home Network Technologies and Automating Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McParland, Charles

    2009-12-01

    Over the past several years, interest in large-scale control of peak energy demand and total consumption has increased. While motivated by a number of factors, this interest has primarily been spurred on the demand side by the increasing cost of energy and, on the supply side by the limited ability of utilities to build sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet unrestrained future demand. To address peak electricity use Demand Response (DR) systems are being proposed to motivate reductions in electricity use through the use of price incentives. DR systems are also be design to shift or curtail energy demand at critical times when the generation, transmission, and distribution systems (i.e. the 'grid') are threatened with instabilities. To be effectively deployed on a large-scale, these proposed DR systems need to be automated. Automation will require robust and efficient data communications infrastructures across geographically dispersed markets. The present availability of widespread Internet connectivity and inexpensive, reliable computing hardware combined with the growing confidence in the capabilities of distributed, application-level communications protocols suggests that now is the time for designing and deploying practical systems. Centralized computer systems that are capable of providing continuous signals to automate customers reduction of power demand, are known as Demand Response Automation Servers (DRAS). The deployment of prototype DRAS systems has already begun - with most initial deployments targeting large commercial and industrial (C & I) customers. An examination of the current overall energy consumption by economic sector shows that the C & I market is responsible for roughly half of all energy consumption in the US. On a per customer basis, large C & I customers clearly have the most to offer - and to gain - by participating in DR programs to reduce peak demand. And, by concentrating on a small number of relatively

  7. LNG demand, shipping will expand through 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    True, W.R.

    1998-01-01

    The 1990s, especially the middle years, have witnessed a dramatic turnaround in the growth of liquefied-natural-gas demand which has tracked equally strong natural-gas demand growth. This trend was underscored late last year by several annual studies of world LNG demand and shipping. As 1998 began, however, economic turmoil in Asian financial markets has clouded near-term prospects for LNG in particular and all energy in general. But the extent of damage to energy markets is so far unclear. A study by US-based Institute of Gas Technology, Des Plaines, IL, reveals that LNG imports worldwide have climbed nearly 8%/year since 1980 and account for 25% of all natural gas traded internationally. In the mid-1970s, the share was only 5%. In 1996, the most recent year for which complete data are available, world LNG trade rose 7.7% to a record 92 billion cu m, outpacing the overall consumption for natural gas which increased 4.7% in 1996. By 2015, says the IGT study, natural-gas use would surpass coal as the world''s second most widely used fuel, after petroleum. Much of this growth will occur in the developing countries of Asia where gas use, before the current economic crisis began, was projected to grow 8%/year through 2015. Similar trends are reflected in another study of LNG trade released at year end 1997, this from Ocean Shipping Consultants Ltd., Surrey, U.K. The study was done too early, however, to consider the effects of the financial problems roiling Asia

  8. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan S. Milojević; Rade V. Guberinić

    2012-01-01

    If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information), then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicte...

  9. Demand for mini cars and large cars; decay effects, and gasoline demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonilla, David; Schmitz, Klaus E.; Akisawa, Atsushi

    2012-01-01

    This article explains why: (a) consumers underinvest in new car fuel economy by opting to buy large vehicles; (b) macro shifts in vehicle classes have occurred in the last decades; and how (c) the effects of vehicle fuel economy and shifts in vehicle type influence the growth path of gasoline demand, which is the key to designing effective energy efficiency goals for transport. From 2008, 1.9 EXJ (Exajoules) of energy were consumed in Japan by private vehicles producing 124 MtCO 2 emissions. For the period 1980 to 2008, we estimated: (1) gasoline demand for three vehicle sizes; (2) vehicle sales; (3) new car fuel economy changes (the ‘real’ technical change); and (4) vehicle stocks. Using a data sample for 1980–2008 we found that: (a) in the short term consumers buy fuel economy, that is sales of mini and small cars increase, but this is not sustained in the long term: and (b) consumers increasingly traded in their cars for larger cars. A further finding was that gasoline demand is projected to increase to 2.3 EXJ by 2035, even with a growing number of mini cars. The policy implication is clear: Japan’s policy to reduce oil dependency to 80% by 2030 is in peril as long as buyers prefer larger cars and drive ever longer distances.

  10. Forecast electricity demand in Quebec: Development plan 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    Demographic, economic, and energy prospects are the determining factors in estimating demand for electricity in Quebec. In average scenarios developed for 1992-2010, the Quebec population will grow 0.5%/y and the gross domestic product will increase 2.6%/y. Firm electricity sales by Hydro-Quebec will grow to 197.9 TWh by 2010, or 2.2%/y. Sales in the residential and farm sectors should grow 1.3%/y and sales in the general and institutional sectors should rise by 2.2%/y. Electricity demand in the industrial sector, rising at an estimated 2.9%/y in 1992-2010, is chiefly responsible for the anticipated growth in Hydro-Quebec's overall sales. The nonferrous smelting, refining, chemicals, and paper industries will account for ca 60% of this growth. In the municipal services and public transportation sectors, demand should grow 3.3%/y, and over half the growth forecast in this sector can be attributed to the impact that new uses of electricity are expected to have after 2005. High- and low-growth scenarios offer alternative visions of demand growth based on different but equally valid assumptions about demographic and economic growth. In terms of firm electricity sales, the high- and low-growth scenarios differ by 50 TWh in 2010. Hydro-Quebec has retained two strategic orientations that will influence growth in electricity sales: the development of industrial markets and extension of the energy-savings objective of 9.3 TWh forecast to the year 2000. Taking these two orientations into account, the growth rate for electricity sales in the average scenario would be 1.8%/y rather than 2.2%/y. 25 figs., 81 tabs

  11. Influence Of Corporate Social Responsibility On Hotel Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Claudia Sevilla-Sevilla; Maria Dolores Reina-Paz; Ainhoa Rodriguez-Oromendia

    2014-01-01

    The embrace of corporate social responsibility (CSR) by the Spanish hospitality industry is still in the early stages. Few hotel companies publish sustainability reports, although the number of tourism and distribution channel organizations (tour operators, online travel agencies, etc.) incorporating specific aspects of CSR is growing each year. In this paper, the authors analyze whether CSR has a direct effect on end-consumer demand in Spain, identifying those aspects that customers evaluate...

  12. Comparing Urban and Rural Household CO2 Emissions—Case from China’s Four Megacities: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Huang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available CO2 emissions caused by household consumption have become one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Studying household CO2 emissions (HCEs is of great significance to energy conservation and emissions reduction. In this study, we quantitatively analyzed the direct and indirect CO2 emissions by urban and rural households in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing. The results show that urban total HCEs are larger than rural total HCEs for the four megacities. Urban total per capita household CO2 emissions (PHCEs are larger than rural total PHCEs in Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing, while rural total PHCEs in Shanghai are larger than urban total PHCEs. Electricity and hot water production and supply was the largest contributor of indirect HCEs for both rural and urban households. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing outsourced a large amount of indirect CO2 emissions to their neighboring provinces.

  13. Outline of energy (electricity) supply and demand outlook in Asian APEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujime, Kazuya

    1995-01-01

    Oil: Japan's oil demand is projected to be on a gradual decline in the future due to implementation of policy measures aimed at achieving that objective, while consumption of oil in three areas - China, NIES and six ASEAN countries -- is projected to increase to reach a level nearly three times as large as Japan's demand by 2010. Supply of oil in the region is projected to level off, making it necessary for the region to increase its reliance on other areas for additional volumes of oil supply. Coal: Demand for coal is projected to grow against a background of expansion of coal-fired power generation. Coal demand in China, in particular, is projected to grow to such an extent that China may become a net coal importer, thus having a great impact on coal supply and demand in Asian countries. Natural gas: Demand for natural gas is projected to grow in the region, centering on NIES and ASEAN countries. Although production in ASEAN countries is expected to increase, the region is anticipated to increase its reliance on other areas for natural gas supply from medium - and long term perspectives. Oil products: Demand for oil products is projected to grow due to stepped-up industrialization and motorization in China, NIES and ASEAN countries. From medium - and long-term perspectives, considerable volumes of additional oil product supply will become necessary, unless large-scale refineries are newly built or expanded within the region centering on China. (author)

  14. Extending the bidding format to promote demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yanchao; Holzer, Jesse T.; Ferris, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    We propose an extended bidding structure to allow more realistic demand characteristics and behaviors to be expressed via flexible bids. In today's ISO-run energy markets, demand bid formats are all separable over time. However, a significant and growing segment of demand can be shifted across time and therefore has no way to bid its true valuation of consumption. We propose additional bid types that allow deferrable, adjustable and storage-type loads to better express their value, and thus elicit demand response in the most natural way – via direct participation in the market. We show that the additional bid types are easily incorporated into the existing market with no technological barrier and that they preserve the market's efficiency and incentive-compatibility properties. Using real market data, we give a numerical demonstration that the extended bid format could substantially increase social welfare, and also present additional insight on storage expansion scenarios. - Highlights: • Three new bid types are proposed to enrich demand-side participation. • Time value of electricity demand can be clearly conveyed to central dispatcher. • The extended format preserves market efficiency and incentive compatibility. • Energy storage is most effective to neutralize price volatility, with a limitation.

  15. A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

    2008-01-01

    China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand. This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil. This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrere, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

  16. Asia-Pacific region's oil demand growth strains refining capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The rapidly industrializing Asia-Pacific region has become a stand-alone economic force and the world's growth market for oil. Japan remains the region's premier economic powerhouse but no longer its only one. And Asia-Pacific economic fortunes have decoupled from the more-mature economies of Europe and the U.S. The East-West Center, Honolulu, in January projected Asia-Pacific average oil demand growth of 3.6%/year through 1999, nearly double what most economists expect for oil demand growth worldwide. Demand reached 14.5 million b/d in 1992, up 862,000 b/d from 1991. East-West Center analysts project demand of 16.4 million b/d in 1995 and 19.1 million b/d by 2000. Not all analysts expect such rapid growth for the region. Edward N. Krapels, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc., Washington, D.C., told a seminar in Houston during March that demand in Southeast Asia will grow at an average of 500,000 b/d/year. The paper discusses economic strength; regional demand; the pressure on refining; the shortfall seen; an opposing view from the Energy Security Analysis; and construction activity

  17. Pattern of Demand For Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Berlian

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the activity of the modern economy, the availability of money as a means of transaction is very important, because with the money as a means to pay consumers can easily to get the basic material needs are required, the manufacturer can provide the raw materials of labor for production, and distributors can obtain a variety of merchandise to be delivered at the end consumer. The pattern of use of money is influenced by the attitude of the public in the transaction. Researchers assume, that there are differences among communities, either by group differences in income, educational differences, ethnic differences, differences in profession, and perhaps even religious differences embraced. So as to provide information to the monetary authorities, to enrich the theory of demand for money based economic agents in Indonesia, and for the application of the theory of demand for money, the researchers felt the need to study patterns of use of money. Qualitative research, in addition to knowing whether the variables that affect the demand for money as the above theory is still relevant for economic actors in Indonesia at this time, or even are new variables, as well as the motive of money demand. Keywords: Demand for money, Keynes Theory, qualitative method

  18. Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

  19. Remotely Measuring Trash Fluxes in the Flood Canals of Megacities with Time Lapse Cameras and Computer Vision Algorithms - a Case Study from Jakarta, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlar, F.; Turpin, E.; Kerkez, B.

    2014-12-01

    As megacities around the world continue to develop at breakneck speeds, future development, investment, and social wellbeing are threatened by a number of environmental and social factors. Chief among these is frequent, persistent, and unpredictable urban flooding. Jakarta, Indonesia with a population of 28 million, is a prime example of a city plagued by such flooding. Yet although Jakarta has ample hydraulic infrastructure already in place with more being constructed, the increasingly severity of the flooding it experiences is not from a lack of hydraulic infrastructure but rather a failure of existing infrastructure. As was demonstrated during the most recent floods in Jakarta, the infrastructure failure is often the result of excessive amounts of trash in the flood canals. This trash clogs pumps and reduces the overall system capacity. Despite this critical weakness of flood control in Jakarta, no data exists on the overall amount of trash in the flood canals, much less on how it varies temporally and spatially. The recent availability of low cost photography provides a means to obtain such data. Time lapse photography postprocessed with computer vision algorithms yields a low cost, remote, and automatic solution to measuring the trash fluxes. When combined with the measurement of key hydrological parameters, a thorough understanding of the relationship between trash fluxes and the hydrology of massive urban areas becomes possible. This work examines algorithm development, quantifying trash parameters, and hydrological measurements followed by data assimilation into existing hydraulic and hydrological models of Jakarta. The insights afforded from such an approach allows for more efficient operating of hydraulic infrastructure, knowledge of when and where critical levels of trash originate from, and the opportunity for community outreach - which is ultimately needed to reduce the trash in the flood canals of Jakarta and megacities around the world.

  20. Seasonal variations in high time-resolved chemical compositions, sources, and evolution of atmospheric submicron aerosols in the megacity Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Hu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available A severe regional haze problem in the megacity Beijing and surrounding areas, caused by fast formation and growth of fine particles, has attracted much attention in recent years. In order to investigate the secondary formation and aging process of urban aerosols, four intensive campaigns were conducted in four seasons between March 2012 and March 2013 at an urban site in Beijing (116.31° E, 37.99° N. An Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometry (HR-ToF-AMS was deployed to measure non-refractory chemical components of submicron particulate matter (NR-PM1. The average mass concentrations of PM1 (NR-PM1+black carbon were 45.1 ± 45.8, 37.5 ± 31.0, 41.3 ± 42.7, and 81.7 ± 72.4 µg m−3 in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Organic aerosol (OA was the most abundant component in PM1, accounting for 31, 33, 44, and 36 % seasonally, and secondary inorganic aerosol (SNA, sum of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium accounted for 59, 57, 43, and 55 % of PM1 correspondingly. Based on the application of positive matrix factorization (PMF, the sources of OA were obtained, including the primary ones of hydrocarbon-like (HOA, cooking (COA, biomass burning OA (BBOA and coal combustion OA (CCOA, and secondary component oxygenated OA (OOA. OOA, which can be split into more-oxidized (MO-OOA and less-oxidized OOA (LO-OOA, accounted for 49, 69, 47, and 50 % in four seasons, respectively. Totally, the fraction of secondary components (OOA+SNA contributed about 60–80 % to PM1, suggesting that secondary formation played an important role in the PM pollution in Beijing, and primary sources were also non-negligible. The evolution process of OA in different seasons was investigated with multiple metrics and tools. The average carbon oxidation states and other metrics show that the oxidation state of OA was the highest in summer, probably due to both strong photochemical and aqueous-phase oxidations

  1. Seasonal variations in high time-resolved chemical compositions, sources, and evolution of atmospheric submicron aerosols in the megacity Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Wei; Hu, Min; Hu, Wei-Wei; Zheng, Jing; Chen, Chen; Wu, Yusheng; Guo, Song

    2017-08-01

    A severe regional haze problem in the megacity Beijing and surrounding areas, caused by fast formation and growth of fine particles, has attracted much attention in recent years. In order to investigate the secondary formation and aging process of urban aerosols, four intensive campaigns were conducted in four seasons between March 2012 and March 2013 at an urban site in Beijing (116.31° E, 37.99° N). An Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometry (HR-ToF-AMS) was deployed to measure non-refractory chemical components of submicron particulate matter (NR-PM1). The average mass concentrations of PM1 (NR-PM1+black carbon) were 45.1 ± 45.8, 37.5 ± 31.0, 41.3 ± 42.7, and 81.7 ± 72.4 µg m-3 in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Organic aerosol (OA) was the most abundant component in PM1, accounting for 31, 33, 44, and 36 % seasonally, and secondary inorganic aerosol (SNA, sum of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) accounted for 59, 57, 43, and 55 % of PM1 correspondingly. Based on the application of positive matrix factorization (PMF), the sources of OA were obtained, including the primary ones of hydrocarbon-like (HOA), cooking (COA), biomass burning OA (BBOA) and coal combustion OA (CCOA), and secondary component oxygenated OA (OOA). OOA, which can be split into more-oxidized (MO-OOA) and less-oxidized OOA (LO-OOA), accounted for 49, 69, 47, and 50 % in four seasons, respectively. Totally, the fraction of secondary components (OOA+SNA) contributed about 60-80 % to PM1, suggesting that secondary formation played an important role in the PM pollution in Beijing, and primary sources were also non-negligible. The evolution process of OA in different seasons was investigated with multiple metrics and tools. The average carbon oxidation states and other metrics show that the oxidation state of OA was the highest in summer, probably due to both strong photochemical and aqueous-phase oxidations. It was indicated by the good correlations

  2. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  3. Response of growing bones to irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Gonzalez, D.

    1980-01-01

    This thesis describes the effects of ionizing radiations on growing bones. The epiphyseal disc of growing mouse tibia was selected as a model for the experiments. An attempt has been made to obtain clinical data from irradiated bones during the childhood and to quantitate this information. Within the range of possibilities correlations have been established between the experimental and clinical data. (Auth.)

  4. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  5. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  6. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  7. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  8. Consumer demand and quality assurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G; Wognum, Nel; Trienekens, Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present...... an inventory of pork chain governance and quality management systems, also resulting from a pan-European study, and attempt to match types of chains to consumer segments, arguing that the type of quality demanded by the consumers has implications especially for the quality management system governing the chain......, and that these implications are different for fresh meat and processed meat. The paper closes with a call for more collaboration between chain researchers and consumer researchers....

  9. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  10. North American supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pocino, M.C.

    1998-01-01

    The projected supply and demand for natural gas in five major regions of North America for the year 2000 was presented. In most regions, supply is expected to be greater than demand. A summary of how California dealt with an increase in natural gas demand in 1990 was presented. The California strategy included a readjustment of pipeline capacity, storage capacity and transportation. Whereas in the 1980s, when capacity was inadequate, the focus was on competition with alternate fuels, maximized capacity use, primary concern about reliability and only secondary concern about price, in the the 1990s, with excess capacity, the emphasis is on 'gas on gas' competition, efforts to satisfy the customer, primary concern about price, and only marginal concern about reliability. tabs., figs

  11. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  12. Pay for load demand - electricity pricing with load demand component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyrko, Jurek; Sernhed, Kerstin; Abaravicius, Juozas

    2003-01-01

    This publication is part of a project called Direct and Indirect Load Control in Buildings. Peak load problems have attracted considerable attention in Sweden during last three winters, caused by a significant decrease in available reserve power, which is a consequence of political decisions and liberalisation of the electricity market. A possible way to lower peak loads, avoiding electricity shortages and reducing electricity costs both for users and utilities, is to make customers experience the price difference during peak load periods and, in this way, become more aware of their energy consumption pattern and load demand. As of January 1st 2001, one of the Swedish energy utilities - Sollentuna Energi - operating in the Stockholm area, introduced a new electricity tariff with differentiated grid fees based on a mean value of the peak load every month. This tariff was introduced for all residential customers in the service area. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which a Load Demand Component, included in electricity pricing, can influence energy use and load demand in residential buildings. What are the benefits and disadvantages for customers and utilities? This paper investigates the impact of the new tariff on the utility and different types of typical residential customers, making comparisons with previous tariff. Keywords Load demand, electricity pricing, tariff, residential customers, energy behaviour

  13. Balancing needs. Global trends in uranium production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolet, J.P.; Underhill, D.

    1998-01-01

    In many countries, uranium is a major energy resource, fueling nuclear power plants that collectively generate about 17% of the world's electricity. With global demand for energy especially electricity projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the price and availability of all energy sources, including uranium, are key components in the process of energy planning and decision-making. Particularly affecting the uranium market were changing projections about nuclear power's growth and the consequent demand for nuclear fuel; the emergence of a more integrated free market system including former centrally planned economies; and the emergence into the civilian market of uranium released from dismantled nuclear weapons. All these factors contributed to uncertainties in the commercial uranium market that raised questions about future fuel supplies for nuclear power plants. Signs today indicate that the situation is changing. The world uranium market is moving towards a more balanced relationship between supply and demand

  14. Future land-use related water demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

  15. Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

    2002-01-01

    Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

  16. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...... balancing measure, which has a high potential and can provide many advantages. Firstly, the background of the research is reviewed, including conventional power system reserves and the electricity demand side potentials. Subsequently, the control logics and corresponding design considerations for the DFR...

  17. Collusion and the elasticity of demand

    OpenAIRE

    David Collie

    2004-01-01

    The analysis of collusion in infinitely repeated Cournot oligopoly games has generally assumed that demand is linear, but this note uses constant-elasticity demand functions to investigate how the elasticity of demand affects the sustainability of collusion.

  18. EIA projections of coal supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, D.E.

    1989-01-01

    Contents of this report include: EIA projections of coal supply and demand which covers forecasted coal supply and transportation, forecasted coal demand by consuming sector, and forecasted coal demand by the electric utility sector; and policy discussion

  19. Consumer Demand for Major Foods in Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Basem Fayaad; Stanley R. Johnson; Mohamed El-Khishin

    1995-01-01

    This study provides information on the structure of the consumer demand for major foods in Egypt. The information is in the form of key parameters for consumer demand systems. The modern theory of consumer behavior is the basis for estimating systems of demand equations. These systems yield estimates of own- and cross-price elasticities. The Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LAIDS) model is applied in estimating a system of demand equations for food commodities. A full demand matrix results ...

  20. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  1. Uranium. Resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The events characterising the world uranium market in the last several years illustrate the persistent uncertainly faced by uranium producers and consumers worldwide. With world nuclear capacity expanding and uranium production satisfying only about 60 per cent of demand, uranium stockpiles continue to be depleted at a high rate. The uncertainty related to the remaining levels of world uranium stockpiles and to the amount of surplus defence material that will be entering the market makes it difficult to determine when a closer balance between uranium supply and demand will be reached. Information in this report provides insights into changes expected in uranium supply and demand until well into the next century. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the foremost reference on uranium. This world report is based on official information from 59 countries and includes compilations of statistics on resources, exploration, production and demand as of 1 January 1997. It provides substantial new information from all of the major uranium producing centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe, North America and the New Independent States, including the first-ever official reports on uranium production in Estonia, Mongolia, the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan. It also contains an international expert analysis of industry statistics and worldwide projections of nuclear energy growth, uranium requirements and uranium supply

  2. Criteria for demand response systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lampropoulos, I.; Kling, W.L.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Berg, van den J.

    2013-01-01

    The topic of demand side management is currently becoming more important than ever, in parallel with the further deregulation of the electricity sector, and the increasing integration of renewable energy sources. A historical review of automation integration in power system control assists in

  3. The moral demands of affluence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderholm, Jørn

    2015-01-01

    In 2004, Garrett Cullity made a significant contribution to the literature on what the world’s relatively affluent owe to the world’s relatively poor through the publishing of The Moral Demands of Affluence. In this discussion note, I draw attention to a logical problem in Cullity’s master argument...

  4. Future butanes supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitley, S.C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper graphically depicts, through in-depth supply/demand analysis, how environmental regulations can be both bad and good for an industry. In the case of n-butane, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) summertime gasoline volatility regulations are a culprit - threatening to ultimately destroy refinery demand for the product as a gasoline blendstock. Waiting in the wings are environmental regulations that should eventually prove to be n-butane's savior. The regulations referred to here are the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1990's mandate for motor fuel oxygenates. The negative impact of gasoline volatility regulations on U.S. n-butane demand and the positive impact that should come from the use of n-butane as a MTBE precursor are covered. Many variables exist which make studying the effects of these environmental regulations very difficult. Over the past three years RPC Group has conducted numerous studies on n-butane supply/demand, as impacted by both EPA gasoline volatility and fuel oxygenate regulations

  5. Consumer surplus and CES demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Raa, Thijs

    2015-01-01

    This article presents the consumer surplus formula for constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demands. The formula is used to compare the monopoly and optimum provisions of product variety. It is shown that a monopolist under-provides variety. This result is contrasted with Lambertini’s analysis

  6. Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

  7. The Cognitive Demands of Writing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrance, Mark; Jeffery, Gaynor

    1999-01-01

    Writing is a complex activity that places demands on cognitive resources. This volume presents original theory and research exploring the ways in which the sub-components of the writing process (generating and organizing content, producing grammatical sentences, etc.) differ in their cognitive

  8. Fruit-Growing in Latvia – Industry and Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaufmane Edīte

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In all times, fruit trees for family use have been grown at Latvian farms. Yet these fruits obtained market value only after the land ownership reform in 19th century. This facilitated rapid area increase of different fruit crops, allowing supply with fruits not only the local market, but also for export to the largest cities of Russia. Especially fast development of fruit-growing was observed during the first independent republic (1919–1940. The demand for planting material increased, and plants were imported from Western Europe. Choice of unsuitable cultivars and rootstocks was the main reason of the massive orchard area loss during the following severe winters. After the Second World War, the Soviet powers supported only the establishment of large orchards for processing needs, 200-300 ha, which were unsuitable for the Latvian climate and terrain. At the same time, numbers of allotment gardens rapidly increased and part of their produce was sold also on the market. After regaining of independence and private property, interest in fresh fruit and berry production for market, as well as processing, renewed. It was hindered by lack of continuity in experience and knowledge. Diversity of terrain, soils and climate all demand considerate choice of suitable orchard location and cultivars. Direct use of foreign experience often led to failure. At present, development of the fruit industry is most of all hindered by lack of qualified specialists of different levels, which does not allow to establish an appropriate consulting system. Cooperation of growers for easier marketing also is developing too slowly. Insufficient economic and market research does not allow to balance the demand with increase of plantation area, especially for large-scale processing and export, so strategic guidance of the fruit industry is not possible. Development of fruit-growing is hindered also by a lack of continuous long-term support to horticultural science. As a

  9. Demand Controlled Ventilation and Classroom Ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davies, Molly [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eliseeva, Ekaterina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faulkner, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hong, Tienzen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sullivan, Douglas P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    This document summarizes a research effort on demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation. The research on demand controlled ventilation included field studies and building energy modeling.

  10. Demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davies, Molly [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eliseeva, Ekaterina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faulkner, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hong, Tienzen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sullivan, Douglas P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-01-06

    This document summarizes a research effort on demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation. The research on demand controlled ventilation included field studies and building energy modeling.

  11. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  12. Microsatellite Primers for Fungus-Growing Ants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villesen Fredsted, Palle; Gertsch, Pia J.; Boomsma, Jacobus Jan (Koos)

    2002-01-01

    We isolated five polymorphic microsatellite loci from a library of two thousand recombinant clones of two fungus-growing ant species, Cyphomyrmex longiscapus and Trachymyrmex cf. zeteki. Amplification and heterozygosity were tested in five species of higher attine ants using both the newly...... developed primers and earlier published primers that were developed for fungus-growing ants. A total of 20 variable microsatellite loci, developed for six different species of fungus-growing ants, are now available for studying the population genetics and colony kin-structure of these ants....

  13. Microsatellite primers for fungus-growing ants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villesen, Palle; Gertsch, P J; Boomsma, JJ

    2002-01-01

    We isolated five polymorphic microsatellite loci from a library of two thousand recombinant clones of two fungus-growing ant species, Cyphomyrmex longiscapus and Trachymyrmex cf. zeteki. Amplification and heterozygosity were tested in five species of higher attine ants using both the newly...... developed primers and earlier published primers that were developed for fungus-growing ants. A total of 20 variable microsatellite loci, developed for six different species of fungus-growing ants, are now available for studying the population genetics and colony kin-structure of these ants....

  14. Visualization of airflow growing soap bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Rahbi, Hamood; Bock, Matthew; Ryu, Sangjin

    2016-11-01

    Visualizing airflow inside growing soap bubbles can answer questions regarding the fluid dynamics of soap bubble blowing, which is a model system for flows with a gas-liquid-gas interface. Also, understanding the soap bubble blowing process is practical because it can contribute to controlling industrial processes similar to soap bubble blowing. In this study, we visualized airflow which grows soap bubbles using the smoke wire technique to understand how airflow blows soap bubbles. The soap bubble blower setup was built to mimic the human blowing process of soap bubbles, which consists of a blower, a nozzle and a bubble ring. The smoke wire was placed between the nozzle and the bubble ring, and smoke-visualized airflow was captured using a high speed camera. Our visualization shows how air jet flows into the growing soap bubble on the ring and how the airflow interacts with the soap film of growing bubble.

  15. Anticipated ethical challenges with growing molecular prenatal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Anticipated ethical challenges with growing molecular prenatal diagnosis in Nigeria. ... Bayero Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences ... Ethical standards in medical laboratories are derived from medical ethics therefore, the four fundamental ...

  16. Demand chain management - The evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Ericsson

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM and Demand Chain Management (DCM are among the new and debated topics concerning logistics in the literature. The question considered in this paper is: “Are these concepts needed or will they just add to the confusion?” Lasting business concepts have always evolved in close interaction between business and academia. Different approaches start out in business and they are then, more or less si- multaneously, aligned, integrated, systemised and structured in academia. In this way a terminology (or language is provided that helps in further diffusion of the concepts. There is a lack of consensus on the definition of the concept of SCM. This may be one of the major reasons for the difficulty in advancing the science and measuring the results of implementation in business. Relationships in SCM span from rather loose coalitions to highly structured virtual network integrations. DCM is a highly organised chain in which the key is mutual interdependence and partnership. The purpose is to create a distinctive competence for the chain as a whole that helps to identify and satisfy customer needs and wishes. The classical research concerning vertical marketing systems is very helpful in systemising the rather unstructured discussions in current SCM research. The trend lies in increasing competition between channels rather than between companies, which in turn leads to the creation of channels with a high degree of partnership and mutual interdependence between members. These types of channels are known as organised vertical marketing systems in the classic marketing channel research. The behaviour in these types of channels, as well as the formal and informal structures, roles in the network, power and dependence relations, etc. are well covered topics in the literature. The concept of vertical marketing systems lies behind the definition of demand chains and demand chain management proposed in this paper. A

  17. Growing America's Energy Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-06-01

    The emerging U.S. bioenergy industry provides a secure and growing supply of transportation fuels, biopower, and bioproducts produced from a range of abundant, renewable biomass resources. Bioenergy can help ensure a secure, sustainable, and economically sound future by reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, developing domestic clean energy sources, and generating domestic green jobs. Bioenergy can also help address growing concerns about climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to create a healthier environment for current and future generations.

  18. North American pipelines supply/demand update: challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopal, J.

    2002-01-01

    The author began the presentation by providing a little definition of forecasting supply, demand and price as applied to the natural gas industry, indicating that it is both science and art. An integrated grid in North America, the natural gas sector modeling relates to supply basins, demand centers and pipes includes the United States, Canada and Mexico. Some of the considerations are: huge demand from proposed power generation, conservation, and drilling impacts, as well as pipeline capacity. A chart displaying the North American model was explained. The author discussed the technically recoverable natural gas resources as well as the estimates in both Canada and the United States. The next section deals with exploration and development of frontier resources and power plant licensing, with emphasis on power plants in California. The generation assumptions for the Western Systems Coordinating Council from the Energy Commission are reviewed, placing the numbers in their proper perspective. California natural gas supply by source is examined, followed by regional natural gas spot price. The wellhead natural gas prices for North America and for the Lower 48 states are presented. The author indicates that additional pipeline capacity is required to meet the growing demand. Several factors have to be considered: the number of power plants, when and where; pipeline capacity (how much); regulations; slack capacity; cost of slack capacity, and supply. The concluding remarks touched upon the availability of gas resources, the environmental issues that affect demand, hub services that enhance service flexibility and reliability, and pipeline capacity and storage. 2 tabs., 15 figs

  19. Russian gas exports have potential to grow through 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the potential for Russian gas export growth through the next decade and concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption. From the production side, the pace of growth depends on the status of gas reserves and, more importantly, on the investment program pursued by the State-owned gas giant Gazprom. From the demand side, evolution depends on the way Russia's wide potential for gas savings is managed. Through this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian gas exports. In the most positive, diversification of exports will be possible. In the most negative, Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.

  20. DataBase on Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aparicio, R Gaspar; Gomez, D; Wojcik, D; Coz, I Coterillo

    2012-01-01

    At CERN a number of key database applications are running on user-managed MySQL database services. The database on demand project was born out of an idea to provide the CERN user community with an environment to develop and run database services outside of the actual centralised Oracle based database services. The Database on Demand (DBoD) empowers the user to perform certain actions that had been traditionally done by database administrators, DBA's, providing an enterprise platform for database applications. It also allows the CERN user community to run different database engines, e.g. presently open community version of MySQL and single instance Oracle database server. This article describes a technology approach to face this challenge, a service level agreement, the SLA that the project provides, and an evolution of possible scenarios.

  1. Advertising media and cigarette demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Rajeev K

    2011-01-01

    Using state-level panel data for the USA spanning three decades, this research estimates the demand for cigarettes. The main contribution lies in studying the effects of cigarette advertising disaggregated across five qualitatively different groups. Results show cigarette demand to be near unit elastic, the income effects to be generally insignificant and border price effects and habit effects to be significant. Regarding advertising effects, aggregate cigarette advertising has a negative effect on smoking. Important differences across advertising media emerge when cigarette advertising is disaggregated. The effects of public entertainment and Internet cigarette advertising are stronger than those of other media. Anti-smoking messages accompanying print cigarette advertising seem relatively more effective. Implications for smoking control policy are discussed.

  2. Uranium Resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    Periodic assessments of world uranium supply and demand have been conducted by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since the mid 1960s. Published every two years, the report URANIUM RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, commonly referred to as the RED BOOK, has become an essential reference document for nuclear planners and policy makers in the international nuclear community. The latest Red Book, published in 1988, was based on data collected mainly in early 1987. Most of the data for 1987 were therefore provisional. The STATISTICAL UPDATE 1988 provides updated 1987 data collected in 1988 and provisional data for 1988. The publication, which covers OECD Countries and gives Secretariat estimates for the rest of the World Outside Centrally Planned Economies (WOCA), is being issued every second year, between publications of more complete Red Books

  3. Enrichment demand boosts SWU prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The enrichment market is picking up significantly on very brisk demand. US utilities, which normally purchase material nine months to a year ahead of time, are already hitting the market to fill their 1996 requirements. In June, two non-US utilities, one European entity and a US utility bought SWUs, the entity in an off-market deal. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Three other US utilities entered the market during the month. Meanwhile, we count 13 more utilities getting ready to hit the market for more than 4 million SWUs. Why the surge in demand? Utilities, uncertain of the role to be played by the new US Enrichment Corp. and seeking to take advantage of low interest rates, are implementing buy and hold strategies. As a result, the upper end of NUKEM's SWU price range inched up to $78. The lower end dipped to $67 based on the European deal

  4. Úlceras em megacólons chagásicos operados na urgência e eletivamente Ulcerations in Chagas' megacolon operated at urgency and electively

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Diogo-Filho

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available RACIONAL: O megacólon é uma doença freqüente no nosso meio e abordado na urgência pelas suas complicações como fecalomas, volvos e perfurações. As úlceras de estases nos megacólons contribuem como prováveis sítios de perfurações OBJETIVO: Comparar as freqüências de úlceras de decúbito em megacólons chagásicos operados na urgência, por volvo e fecaloma, e eletivamente, objetivando melhor conduta cirúrgica na urgência MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Analisaram-se os laudos de 356 exames anatomopatológicos de ressecções colônicas de pacientes operados por megacólon chagásico na urgência (102 casos; 29% e eletivamente (254 casos; 71%, no período de 1980 a 2000. As indicações cirúrgicas de urgência foram atribuídas a volvo (71 casos; 69,6%, fecaloma (25 casos; 24,5%, abdome agudo perfurativo após sondagem retal ou sigmoidoscopia (6 casos; 5,9%. Compararam-se as freqüências de úlceras nos dois grupos de peças cirúrgicas, com a utilização do teste do qui-quadrado RESULTADOS: Nos laudos das peças cirúrgicas obtidas nas cirurgias de urgência, constatou-se o registro de úlceras em 26 casos (25,5%; nas peças de ressecções eletivas verificaram-se úlceras em 21 casos (8,25%. A diferença observada foi estatisticamente significante. A comparação dos grupos de volvo, fecaloma e volvo com fecaloma, em separado com o grupo das cirurgias eletivas, evidenciou diferenças significantes em relação ao volvo e ao fecaloma CONCLUSÃO: A freqüência muito maior de úlceras nos megas operados em caráter de urgência enfatiza a necessidade da ressecção imediata do cólon sigmóide, ao invés da conduta conservadora de simples colostomia descompressiva, mesmo naquelas laparotomias exploradoras em que o exame macroscópico do sigmóide não mostre sinais de necrose. Desta forma, deve-se prevenir a ocorrência de perfuração do megacólon no pós-operatório mediato, com conseqüências usualmente graves.BACKGROUD: The

  5. Demand controlled ventilation; Behovsstyrt ventilasjon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Henning Holm

    2006-07-01

    The terms CAV and VAV have been known terms for many years in the ventilation business. The terms are also included in building regulations, but the time is now right to focus on demand controlled ventilation (DCV). The new building regulations and the accompanying energy framework underline the need for a more nuanced thinking when it comes to controlling ventilation systems. Descriptions and further details of the ventilation systems are provided (ml)

  6. Strong demand for natural uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinowski, P.

    1975-01-01

    The Deutsches Atomforum and the task group 'fuel elements' of the Kerntechnische Gesellschaft had organized an international two-day symposium in Mainz on natural uranium supply which was attended by 250 experts from 20 countries. The four main themes were: Demand for natural uranium, uranium deposits and uranium production, attitude of the uranium producing countries, and energy policy of the industrial nations. (orig./AK) [de

  7. Alcohol demand and risk preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

    2008-12-01

    Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

  8. Demand for healthcare in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brijesh C. Purohit

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In a developing country like India, allocation of scarce fiscal resources has to be based on a clear understanding of how investments in the heath sector are going to affect demand. Three aspects like overall healthcare demand, consumer decisions to use public and/or private care and role of price/quality influencing poor/rich consumer’s decisions are critical to assessing the equity implications of alternative policies. Our paper addresses these aspects through examining the pattern of healthcare demand in India. Data from the National Family Health Survey are used to model the healthcare choices that individuals make. We consider what these behavioral characteristics imply for public policy. This analysis aims to study disparities between rural and urban areas from all throughout India to five Indian states representing three levels of per capita incomes (all-India average, rich and poor. Results evidence that healthcare demand both in rural and urban areas is a commodity emerging as an essential need. Choices between public or private provider are guided by income and quality variables mainly with regard to public healthcare denoting thus a situation of very limited alternatives in terms of availing private providers. These results emphasize that existing public healthcare facilities do not serve the objective of providing care to the poor in a satisfactory manner in rural areas. Thus, any financing strategy to improve health system and reduce disparities across rich-poor states and rural-urban areas should also take into account not only overcoming inadequacy but also inefficiency in allocation and utilization of healthcare inputs.

  9. Uranium resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    Nuclear power-generating capacity will continue to expand, albeit at a slower pace than during the past fifteen years. This expansion must be matched by an adequately increasing supply of uranium. This report compares uranium supply and demand data in free market countries with the nuclear industry's natural uranium requirements up to the year 2000. It also reviews the status of uranium exploration, resources and production in 46 countries

  10. The economics of uranium demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1983-01-01

    The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s. (author)

  11. Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand

    OpenAIRE

    Tica, Josip; Kožić, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a forecasting model for the overnight stays of foreign tourists in Croatia. Tourism is one of the most important parts of the Croatian economy. It is particularly important in the context of the services sector. Regular and significant surpluses and the consumption of foreign guests are an important element of budget revenues, especially VAT. The ability to forecast the development of inbound tourism demand in a timely manner is crucial for both business...

  12. Optimal Advertising with Stochastic Demand

    OpenAIRE

    George E. Monahan

    1983-01-01

    A stochastic, sequential model is developed to determine optimal advertising expenditures as a function of product maturity and past advertising. Random demand for the product depends upon an aggregate measure of current and past advertising called "goodwill," and the position of the product in its life cycle measured by sales-to-date. Conditions on the parameters of the model are established that insure that it is optimal to advertise less as the product matures. Additional characteristics o...

  13. Demand, Energy, and Power Factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-08-01

    POWER FACTOR DEFINITION I Basically , power factor (pf) is a measure of how effectively the plant uses the electricity it purchases from the utility. It...not be made available by the plant. U 24 This video is relatively short, less than fifteen-minutes, and covers the basics on demand, block extenders... ratemaking methodology and test period as used in determining the NC-RS rates. Pending final decision by the FERC, the Federal Government would pay a rate as

  14. World gas supply-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rushby, I.L.

    1996-01-01

    The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

  15. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  16. Demand for radiotherapy in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, A; Borrás, J M; López-Torrecilla, J; Algara, M; Palacios-Eito, A; Gómez-Caamaño, A; Olay, L; Lara, P C

    2017-02-01

    Assessing the demand for radiotherapy in Spain based on existing evidence to estimate the human resources and equipment needed so that every person in Spain has access to high-quality radiotherapy when they need it. We used data from the European Cancer Observatory on the estimated incidence of cancer in Spain in 2012, along with the evidence-based indications for radiotherapy developed by the Australian CCORE project, to obtain an optimal radiotherapy utilisation proportion (OUP) for each tumour. About 50.5 % of new cancers in Spain require radiotherapy at least once over the course of the disease. Additional demand for these services comes from reradiation therapy and non-melanoma skin cancer. Approximately, 25-30 % of cancer patients with an indication for radiotherapy do not receive it due to factors that include access, patient preference, familiarity with the treatment among physicians, and especially resource shortages, all of which contribute to its underutilisation. Radiotherapy is underused in Spain. The increasing incidence of cancer expected over the next decade and the greater frequency of reradiations necessitate the incorporation of radiotherapy demand into need-based calculations for cancer services planning.

  17. Demands from the school inclusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selma Norberto Matos

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available From the implementation of public policies on school inclusion, mainly those directed to the target audience of special education, the number of students with special educational needs in common classes has increased. This fact has helped to compose the picture in schools where the limitations and contradictions of the Brazilian educational system have appeared. Educational actors and authors are challenged to build knowledge able of responding to demands of daily school, concerning living and learning in diversity. Whereas this inclusive process is new in the schools, the study aimed to analyze the demands of teachers from the school inclusion. The research was qualitative and exploratory, and six teachers, their students with special educational needs and three professionals in the Nucleus of Inclusive Education from the Municipal Department of Education took in it. Technique of participant observation, field diary, semi-structured interview and questionnaire were used for data collection, while analysis of content was used for discussion of the data. The results indicate that there are achievements and contradictions in the reality of schools that themselves propose inclusive; advances and limitations resulting from the municipal politics; that the model of performance of the group of special education, in the context analyzed, may be revised or expanded; and that the teachers has demands with regard to public policy, training, and the psychologist.

  18. PREDICTING DEMAND FOR COTTON YARNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SALAS-MOLINA Francisco

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Predicting demand for fashion products is crucial for textile manufacturers. In an attempt to both avoid out-of-stocks and minimize holding costs, different forecasting techniques are used by production managers. Both linear and non-linear time-series analysis techniques are suitable options for forecasting purposes. However, demand for fashion products presents a number of particular characteristics such as short life-cycles, short selling seasons, high impulse purchasing, high volatility, low predictability, tremendous product variety and a high number of stock-keeping-units. In this paper, we focus on predicting demand for cotton yarns using a non-linear forecasting technique that has been fruitfully used in many areas, namely, random forests. To this end, we first identify a number of explanatory variables to be used as a key input to forecasting using random forests. We consider explanatory variables usually labeled either as causal variables, when some correlation is expected between them and the forecasted variable, or as time-series features, when extracted from time-related attributes such as seasonality. Next, we evaluate the predictive power of each variable by means of out-of-sample accuracy measurement. We experiment on a real data set from a textile company in Spain. The numerical results show that simple time-series features present more predictive ability than other more sophisticated explanatory variables.

  19. Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

  20. Field demonstration of automated demand response for both winter and summer events in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, M.A.; Kiliccote, S.; Dudley, J.H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2013-11-15

    There are growing strains on the electric grid as cooling peaks grow and equipment ages. Increased penetration of renewables on the grid is also straining electricity supply systems and the need for flexible demand is growing. This paper summarizes results of a series of field test of automated demand response systems in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest. The objective of the research was twofold. One objective was to evaluate the use demand response automation technologies. A second objective was to evaluate control strategies that could change the electric load shape in both winter and summer conditions. Winter conditions focused on cold winter mornings, a time when the electric grid is often stressed. The summer test evaluated DR strategies in the afternoon. We found that we could automate both winter and summer control strategies with the open automated demand response communication standard. The buildings were able to provide significant demand response in both winter and summer events.

  1. 46 CFR 169.689 - Demand loads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Demand loads. 169.689 Section 169.689 Shipping COAST... Electrical Electrical Installations on Vessels of 100 Gross Tons and Over § 169.689 Demand loads. Demand loads must meet § 111.60-7 of this chapter except that smaller demand loads for motor feeders are...

  2. Demand for food products in Finland: A demand system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilkka P. Laurila

    1994-07-01

    Full Text Available The study was concerned with the estimation of food-demand parameters in a system context. The patterns of food consumption in Finland were presented over the period 1950-1991, and a complete demand system of food expenditures was estimated. Price and expenditure elasticities of demand were derived, and the results were used to obtain projections on future consumption. While the real expenditure on food has increased, the budget share of food has decreased. In the early 19505, combined Food-at-Home and Food-away-from-Home corresponded to about 40% of consumers’ total expenditure. In 1991 the share was 28%. There was a shift to meals eaten outside the home. While the budget share of Food-away-from-Home increased from 3% to 7% over the observation period, Food-at-Home fell from 37% to 21%, and Food-at-Home excluding Alcoholic Drinks fell from 34% to 16%. Within Food-at-Home, the budget shares of the broad aggregate groups, Animalia (food from animal sources, Beverages, and Vegetablia (food from vegetable sources, remained about the same over the four decades, while structural change took place within the aggregates. Within Animalia, consumption shifted from Dairy Products (other than Fresh Milk to Meat and Fish. Within Beverages, consumption shifted from Fresh Milk and Hot Drinks to Alcoholic Drinks and Soft Drinks. Within Vegetablia, consumption shifted from Flour to Fruits, while the shares of Bread and Cake and Vegetables remained about the same. As the complete demand system, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS was employed. The conventional AIDS was extended by developing a dynamic generalisation of the model and allowing for systematic shifts in structural relationships over time. A four-stage budgeting system was specified, consisting of seven sub-systems (groups, and covering 18 food categories. Tests on parameter restrictions and misspecification tests were used to choose the most preferred model specification for each group. Generally

  3. Soviet Union oil sector outlook grows bleaker still

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the outlook for the U.S.S.R's oil sector which grows increasingly bleak and with it prospects for the Soviet economy. Plunging Soviet oil production and exports have analysts revising near term oil price outlooks, referring to the Soviet oil sector's self-destructing and Soviet oil production in a freefall. County NatWest, Washington, citing likely drops in Soviet oil production and exports (OGJ, Aug. 5, p. 16), has jumped its projected second half spot price for West Texas intermediate crude by about $2 to $22-23/bbl. Smith Barney, New York, forecasts WTI postings at $24-25/bbl this winter, largely because of seasonally strong world oil demand and the continued collapse in Soviet oil production. It estimates the call on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at more than 25 million b/d in first quarter 1992. That would be the highest level of demand for OPEC oil since 1980, Smith Barney noted

  4. Aerosol optical properties in a rural environment near the mega-city Guangzhou, China: implications for regional air pollution, radiative forcing and remote sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Zhang

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The scattering and absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols is a key element of the Earth's radiative energy balance and climate. The optical properties of aerosol particles are, however, highly variable and not well characterized, especially near newly emerging mega-cities. In this study, aerosol optical properties were measured at a rural site approximately 60 km northwest of the mega-city Guangzhou in southeast China. The measurements were part of the PRIDE-PRD2006 intensive campaign, covering the period of 1–30 July 2006. Scattering and absorption coefficients of dry aerosol particles with diameters up to 10 μm (PM10 were determined with a three-wavelength integrating nephelometer and with a photoacoustic spectrometer, respectively.

    Averaged over the measurement campaign (arithmetic mean ± standard deviation, the total scattering coefficients were 200±133 Mm−1 (450 nm, 151±103 Mm−1 (550 nm and 104±72 Mm−1 (700 nm and the absorption coefficient was 34.3±26.5 Mm−1 (532 nm. The average Ångström exponent was 1.46±0.21 (450 nm/700 nm and the average single scattering albedo was 0.82±0.07 (532 nm with minimum values as low as 0.5. The low single scattering albedo values indicate a high abundance, as well as strong sources, of light absorbing carbon (LAC. The ratio of LAC to CO concentration was highly variable throughout the campaign, indicating a complex mix of different combustion sources. The scattering and absorption coefficients, as well as the Ångström exponent and single scattering albedo, exhibited pronounced diurnal cycles, which can be attributed to boundary layer mixing effects and enhanced nighttime emissions of LAC (diesel soot from regulated truck traffic. The daytime average mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.87 appears to be more suitable for climate modeling purposes than the 24-h average of 0.82, as the latter value is

  5. Demand powers ahead [Gas in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, N.

    1994-01-01

    Natural gas demand in Europe has been growing steadily for many years and is likely to go on increasing in the domestic sector, the industrial sector and in power generation. In this review a number of features of the market supply situation are reported. Potential new markets for Norwegian gas in eastern and central Europe are being evaluated. Other exporting countries are also keen to obtain a greater share in the expanding European market. Among them are Russia, Algeria and Nigeria, but political uncertainties in each of these countries are a cause for concern. Algeria has new pipelines to supply Italy, Spain and Portugal. The Russian company, Gazprom, has launched the construction of a pipeline to link new gas fields in northern Siberia with western Europe and has set up contracts with German companies which are facilitating the sale of Russian gas in Europe. Supply potential also exists in some of the other countries of the former Soviet Union, such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. A group of leading European gas utilities are exploring the feasibility of imports from Iran either via a pipeline link or as liquefied natural gas. The United Kingdom hopes to export North Sea gas into Europe through the proposed Interconnector pipeline from Bacton to Zeebrugge, in th long-term, though, the pipeline may be used for imports into the UK. A controversial proposal to introduce third-party access to European pipelines could alter the whole structure of the market. (UK)

  6. North American natural gas supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goobie, G.

    2006-01-01

    This presentation was given by leading energy analysts Pervin and Gertz, and provided their outlook on the North American natural gas supply and demand as well as transportation and processing options for the Mackenzie Valley project and the Alaska natural gas project. Arctic gas development was discussed in relation to larger North American and world energy markets. The impacts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development were compared with the potential impacts of the Alaska and Mackenzie Valley pipelines. A review of North American gas supplies was presented. LNG imports to the United States are expected to exceed 8 BCF/D by 2010. In addition, huge growth in the LNG markets is expected in middle eastern countries as well as in Africa. There is currently strong growth in liquefaction capacity in most regions. However, many proposed LNG terminals will not proceed due to opposition on the west coast of North America. It is also expected that natural gas liquids (NGL) delivered to Alberta from the Mackenzie Valley Gas project are expected to be used by the heavy oil industry. Canadian crude supplies are expected to grow to nearly 4 million barrels per day by 2015. The impacts of Alaska and Mackenzie Valley gas projects on western NGL markets and the petrochemicals industry were reviewed. It was concluded that major investments in supply and infrastructure are need in order to develop Arctic gas, as LNG is likely to be the largest source of incremental supply. tabs., figs

  7. The end of surplus and a growing role in world markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eklof, W.D.

    1991-01-01

    Rapid economic growth in Asia in recent years has rekindled the region's appetite for energy. This surge in energy consumption since the oil price collapse in 1986 has brought into sharp focus critical challenges facing Asian governments and commercial organizations in the 1990's--challenges that must be met if the economic success of recent years is to continue. Yet supplying energy to fuel economic growth will be more difficult than in the past. Oil reserves in the region are inadequate to support the anticipated growth in demands, and new discoveries may be modest. Gas reserves are plentiful, but not well located to meet the energy needs of major markets. Added to difficulties associated with these resource-based limitations new challenges are emerging: growing consumer demands for transportation fuels and electricity, a growing concern for the environmental impact of energy production and consumption, and the need to rethink long-standing energy policies that were based on expectations of very high future oil prices. These new factors will complicate policy decisions and place new constraints on available energy options. This paper addresses the future development of Asian oil and gas markets in light of these challenges, and provides an assessment of the potential growth of gas markets, the need for growing oil imports into the region, and the need for new refining capacity to meet the growing demand for transportation fuels

  8. Far East LPG sales will grow faster than in West

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    LPG sales through 2010 in regions east of the Suez Canal (East of Suez) will grow at more than twice those in regions west of the canal. East-of-Suez sales will grow at more than 4.0%/year, compared to slightly less than 2.0%/year growth in sales West of Suez. East-of-Suez sales will reach 92 million tons/year (tpy) by 2010, accounting for 39% of the worldwide total. This share was 31% in1995 and only 27% in 1990. LPG sales worldwide will reach 192 million tons in 2000 and 243 million tpy by 2010. In 1995, they were 163 million tons. These are some of the major conclusions of a recent study by Frank R. Spadine, Christine Kozar, and Rudy Clark of New York City-based consultant Poten and Partners Inc. Details of the study are in the fall report ''World Trade in LPG 1990--2010''. This paper discusses demand segments, seaborne balance, Western sources, largest trading region, North American supplies, and other supplies

  9. Effect of vehicular traffic, remote sources and new particle formation on the activation properties of cloud condensation nuclei in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Souto-Oliveira

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosol is the primary source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN. The microphysics and chemical composition of aerosols can affect cloud development and the precipitation process. Among studies conducted in Latin America, only a handful have reported the impact of urban aerosol on CCN activation parameters such as activation ratio (AR and activation diameter (Dact. With over 20 million inhabitants, the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP is the largest megacity in South America. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess the impact that remote sources and new particle formation (NPF events have on CCN activation properties in a South American megacity. The measurements were conducted in the MASP between August and September 2014. We measured the CCN within the 0.2–1.0 % range of supersaturation, together with particle number concentration (PNC and particle number distribution (PND, as well as trace-element concentrations and black carbon (BC. NPF events were identified on 35 % of the sampling days. Combining multivariate analysis in the form of positive matrix factorization (PMF with an aerosol profile from lidar and HYSPLIT model analyses allowed us to identify the main contribution of vehicular traffic on all days and sea salt and biomass burning from remote regions on 28 and 21 % of the sampling days, respectively. The AR and Dact parameters showed distinct patterns for daytime with intense vehicular traffic and nighttime periods. For example, CCN activation was lower during the daytime than during the nighttime periods, a pattern that was found to be associated mainly with local road-traffic emissions. A decrease in CCN activation was observed on the NPF event days, mainly due to high concentrations of particles with smaller diameters. We also found that aerosols from sea salt, industrial emissions, and biomass burning had minor effects on Dact. For example, nights with biomass burning and vehicular emissions

  10. Toward consistency between trends in bottom-up CO2 emissions and top-down atmospheric measurements in the Los Angeles megacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Newman

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO2 mole fractions and Δ14C and δ13C values of CO2 in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013 and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013, we have determined time series for CO2 contributions from fossil fuel combustion (Cff for both sites and broken those down into contributions from petroleum and/or gasoline and natural gas burning for Pasadena. We find a 10 % reduction in Pasadena Cff during the Great Recession of 2008–2010, which is consistent with the bottom-up inventory determined by the California Air Resources Board. The isotopic variations and total atmospheric CO2 from our observations are used to infer seasonality of natural gas and petroleum combustion. The trend of CO2 contributions to the atmosphere from natural gas combustion is out of phase with the seasonal cycle of total natural gas combustion seasonal patterns in bottom-up inventories but is consistent with the seasonality of natural gas usage by the area's electricity generating power plants. For petroleum, the inferred seasonality of CO2 contributions from burning petroleum is delayed by several months relative to usage indicated by statewide gasoline taxes. Using the high-resolution Hestia-LA data product to compare Cff from parts of the basin sampled by winds at different times of year, we find that variations in observed fossil fuel CO2 reflect seasonal variations in wind direction. The seasonality of the local CO2 excess from fossil fuel combustion along the coast, on Palos Verdes peninsula, is higher in autumn and winter than spring and summer, almost completely out of phase with that from Pasadena, also because of the annual variations of winds in the region. Variations in fossil fuel CO2 signals are consistent with sampling the bottom-up Hestia-LA fossil CO2 emissions product for sub

  11. Synthetic and non-synthetic anthropogenic fibers in a river under the impact of Paris Megacity: Sampling methodological aspects and flux estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dris, Rachid; Gasperi, Johnny; Rocher, Vincent; Tassin, Bruno

    2018-03-15

    Processed fibers are highly present in our daily life and can be either natural, artificial (regenerated cellulose) and synthetic (made with petrochemicals). Their widespread use lead inevitably to a high contamination of environment. Previous studies focus on plastic particles regardless of their type or shape as long as they are comprised between 330μm and 5mm. On the contrary, this study focuses exclusively on fibers using a smaller mesh size net (80μm) to sample freshwater. Moreover, all processed organic fibers are considered, irrespective to their nature. First, the short term temporal variability of the fibers in the environment was assessed. While exposing the sampling net during 1min a coefficient of variation of approx. 45% (with n=6) was determined. It was of only 26% (n=6) when the exposure was of 3min. The assessment of the distribution through the section showed a possible difference in concentrations between the middle of the water surface and the river banks which could be attributed to the intense river traffic within the Paris Megacity. The vertical variability seems negligible as turbulence and current conditions homogenize the distribution of the fibers. A monthly monitoring showed concentrations of 100.6±99.9fibers·m -3 in the Marne River and of: 48.5±98.5, 27.9±26.3, 27.9±40.3 and 22.1±25.3fibers·m -3 from the upstream to downstream points in the Seine River. Once these concentrations are converted into fluxes, it seems that the impact generated by the Paris Megacity cannot be distinguished. Investigations on the role of sedimentation and deposition on the banks are required. This study helped fill some major knowledge gaps regarding the fibers in rivers, their sampling, occurrence, spatial-temporal distribution and fluxes. It is encouraged that future studies include both synthetic and none synthetic fibers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. School environment and policies, child eating behavior and overweight/obesity in urban China: the childhood obesity study in China megacities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, P; Li, M; Xue, H; Lu, L; Xu, F; Wang, Y

    2017-05-01

    Childhood obesity is rising rapidly in China, especially in urban areas. Knowledge about how school environment and policies (SEPs) may have contributed to the epidemic remains limited. We examined SEP and their associations with students' eating behaviors and overweight/obesity in urban China. Data were collected from 1648 students (plus their parents and schools) in 16 primary and middle schools (4 schools per city) in four megacities across China: Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and Xi'an. We examined nutrition-related SEP such as unhealthy food restriction, healthy food promotion, price control and nutrition guideline in school cafeterias (SCs), campus food stores (CFS), school vicinity food stalls (SVFS); SEP on physical activity, physical education (PE) and physical examination. Cluster robust regression models were fit to assess associations of SEP with child eating behaviors and overweight/obesity (defined based on body mass index, from measured weight and height). All 16 schools had regular PE classes and annual physical examination. Most schools (n=12; 75%) had food policies in SC; few had policies on CFS (n=1; 6.25%) or SVFS (n=4; 25%). Local governments had a major role in regulating food prices, setting nutrition guidelines and regulating SVFS. Policies on CFS and SVFS were associated with less frequent intake of sugary beverage (odds ratio (OR)=0.54 (0.47-0.61); OR=0.70 (0.61-0.80)), snack (OR=0.84 (0.74-0.95); OR=0.78 (0.67-0.92)) and fast food (OR=0.58 (0.42-0.81); OR=0.56 (0.39-0.80)). The associations were stronger for boys. Policies on SC, CFS and SVFS were associated with lower likelihood for overweight/obesity (OR=0.60 (0.46-0.79); OR=0.74 (0.62-0.90); OR=0.51 (0.35-0.73)) and central obesity (OR=0.79 (0.70-0.89); OR=0.67 (0.48-0.92); OR=0.63 (0.48-0.84)) in boys. Policies on SC were associated with lower overweight/obesity odds (OR=0.48 (0.28-0.82)) for girls. SEP are heterogeneous in the four Chinese megacities, high-income areas. They affect

  13. Fast food consumption and its associations with obesity and hypertension among children: results from the baseline data of the Childhood Obesity Study in China Mega-cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yaling; Wang, Liang; Xue, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wang, Youfa

    2017-12-06

    China has seen rapid increase in obesity and hypertension prevalence and fast food consumption over the past decade. We examined status and risk factors for Western- and Chinese fast food consumption and their associations with health outcomes in Chinese children, and examined how maternal factors were associated with child health outcomes. Data of 1626 students aged 7-16 (11.6 ± 2.0) years and their parents in four mega-cities across China (Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Xi'an) were collected in the 2015 baseline survey of the Childhood Obesity Study in China Mega-cities. Weight, height, waist circumference, and blood pressure were measured. Food intake was assessed using questionnaire. Mixed models were used to examine the associations. Among the children, 11.1% were obese, 19.7% were centrally obese, and 9.0% had hypertension. Obesity prevalence was much higher in boys than in girls (15.2% vs. 6.9% and 27.4% vs. 11.7%, respectively, both P fast food, respectively, over the past 3 months. Compared to those with college or above maternal education level, those with elementary school or below maternal education level were 49% more likely to consume Western fast food (odds ratio [OR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49 [1.10-2.03]). Chinese fast food consumption rate increased by 12% with each year of increase in child's age (OR and 95% CI: 1.12 [1.02-1.23]). No significant associations between fast food consumption and health outcomes were detected. Adjusting for Western fast food consumption, children with lower maternal education were 71% and 43% more likely to have obesity and central obesity (ORs and 95% CIs: 1.71 [1.12-2.61] and 1.43 [1.00-2.03], respectively), and maternal body mass index was positively associated with child obesity, central obesity, and hypertension (ORs and 95% CIs: 1.11 [1.06-1.17], 1.12 [1.07-1.17], and 1.09 [1.03-1.15], respectively). Results were similar when Chinese fast food consumption was adjusted for. The prevalence of

  14. Effect of vehicular traffic, remote sources and new particle formation on the activation properties of cloud condensation nuclei in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souto-Oliveira, Carlos Eduardo; de Fátima Andrade, Maria; Kumar, Prashant; Juliano da Silva Lopes, Fábio; Babinski, Marly; Landulfo, Eduardo

    2016-11-01

    Atmospheric aerosol is the primary source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The microphysics and chemical composition of aerosols can affect cloud development and the precipitation process. Among studies conducted in Latin America, only a handful have reported the impact of urban aerosol on CCN activation parameters such as activation ratio (AR) and activation diameter (Dact). With over 20 million inhabitants, the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) is the largest megacity in South America. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess the impact that remote sources and new particle formation (NPF) events have on CCN activation properties in a South American megacity. The measurements were conducted in the MASP between August and September 2014. We measured the CCN within the 0.2-1.0 % range of supersaturation, together with particle number concentration (PNC) and particle number distribution (PND), as well as trace-element concentrations and black carbon (BC). NPF events were identified on 35 % of the sampling days. Combining multivariate analysis in the form of positive matrix factorization (PMF) with an aerosol profile from lidar and HYSPLIT model analyses allowed us to identify the main contribution of vehicular traffic on all days and sea salt and biomass burning from remote regions on 28 and 21 % of the sampling days, respectively. The AR and Dact parameters showed distinct patterns for daytime with intense vehicular traffic and nighttime periods. For example, CCN activation was lower during the daytime than during the nighttime periods, a pattern that was found to be associated mainly with local road-traffic emissions. A decrease in CCN activation was observed on the NPF event days, mainly due to high concentrations of particles with smaller diameters. We also found that aerosols from sea salt, industrial emissions, and biomass burning had minor effects on Dact. For example, nights with biomass burning and vehicular emissions showed slightly lower

  15. Tackling the mortality from long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution in megacities: Lessons from the Greater Cairo case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheida, Ali; Nasser, Amira; El Nazer, Mostafa; Borbon, Agnes; Abo El Ata, Gehad A; Abdel Wahab, Magdy; Alfaro, Stephane C

    2018-01-01

    The poor outdoor air quality in megacities of the developing world and its impact on health is a matter of concern for both the local populations and the decision-makers. The objective of this work is to quantify the mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO 2 , and O 3 in Greater Cairo (Egypt). We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the three pollutants concentrations measured at 18 stations of the area. Then, we apply the method recommended by the WHO to estimate the excess mortality. In this assessment, three different shapes (log-linear, linear, and log-log) of the concentration-response functions (CRF) are used. With PM2.5 concentrations varying from 50 to more than 100µg/m 3 in the different sectors of the megacity, the spatial variability of this pollutant is found to be one important cause of uncertainty on the excess mortality associated with it. Also important is the choice of the CRF. With the average (75µg/m 3 ) PM2.5 concentration and the most favorable log-log shape of the CRF, 11% (CI, 9-14%) of the non-accidental mortality in the population older than 30 years can still be attributed to PM2.5, which corresponds to 12520 (CI, 10240-15930) yearly premature deaths. Should the Egyptian legal 70µg/m 3 PM10 limit (corresponding to approximately 37.5µg/m 3 for PM2.5) be met, this number would be reduced to 7970, meaning that 4550 premature deaths could be avoided each year. Except around some industrial or traffic hot spots, NO 2 concentration is found to be below the 40µg/m 3 air quality guideline of the WHO. However, the average concentration (34µg/m 3 ) of this gas exceeds the stricter 10µg/m 3 recommendation of the HRAPIE project and it is thus estimated that from 7850 to 10470 yearly deaths can be attributed to NO 2 . Finally, with the ozone concentration measured at one station only, it is found that, depending on the choice of the CRF, between 2.4% and 8.8% of the mortality due to respiratory diseases can be

  16. Market demands to Danish pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredahl, Lone

    2001-01-01

    position on its markets. It is expected that results of the analysis will be part of superior strategic decisions for the Danish pork sector as regards future Danish pork export markets. The market demands to be identified will therefore be evaluated in relation to resources and competences within the line...... of business. The study takes its starting point in a value chain perspective. The value chain covers the product- and distribution stages a product passes through before reaching the consumers. The value chain perspective presumes that added value is accumulated when a product passes through the stages...

  17. Uranium, resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The thirteenth edition of the report looks at recent developments and their impact on the short term (i.e. to the year 2005) and presents a longer term (to 2030) analysis of supply possibilities in the context of a range of requirement scenarios. It presents results of a 1989 review of uranium supply and demand in the World Outside Centrally Planned Economies Areas. It contains updated information on uranium exploration activities, resources and production for over 40 countries including a few CPEs, covering the period 1987 and 1988

  18. LPG world supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, Ch.

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

  19. Changing water availability during the African maize-growing season, 1979–2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estes, Lyndon D; Chaney, Nathaniel W; Herrera-Estrada, Julio; Sheffield, Justin; Caylor, Kelly K; Wood, Eric F

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how global change is impacting African agriculture requires a full physical accounting of water supply and demand, but accurate, gridded data on key drivers (e.g., humidity) are generally unavailable. We used a new bias-corrected meteorological dataset to analyze changes in precipitation (supply), potential evapotranspiration (E p , demand), and water availability (expressed as the ratio P/E p ) in 20 countries (focusing on their maize-growing regions and seasons), between 1979 and 2010, and the factors driving changes in E p . Maize-growing areas in Southern Africa, particularly South Africa, benefitted from increased water availability due in large part to demand declines driven primarily by declining net radiation, increasing vapor pressure, and falling temperatures (with no effect from changing windspeed), with smaller increases in supply. Sahelian zone countries in West Africa, as well as Ethiopia in East Africa, had strong increases in availability driven primarily by rainfall rebounding from the long-term Sahelian droughts, with little change or small reductions in demand. However, intra-seasonal supply variability generally increased in West and East Africa. Across all three regions, declining net radiation contributed downwards pressure on demand, generally over-riding upwards pressure caused by increasing temperatures, the regional effects of which were largest in East Africa. A small number of countries, mostly in or near East Africa (Tanzania and Malawi) experienced declines in water availability primarily due to decreased rainfall, but exacerbated by increasing demand. Much of the reduced water availability in East Africa occurred during the more sensitive middle part of the maize-growing season, suggesting negative consequences for maize production. (paper)

  20. Seasonal and spatial variation of atmospheric particulate matter in a developing megacity, the Greater Cairo, Egypt Egipto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zakey, A.S. [The Abdus Salam International Centre of Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Trieste (Italy)]. E-mail: azakey@ictp.it; Abdel-Wahab, M.M. [Cairo University, Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Science, Cairo (Egypt); Pettersson, J.B.C.; Gatari, M.J.; Hallquist, M. [Department of Chemistry, Atmospheric Science, Goeteborg University, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2008-04-15

    As an example of a developing megacity the Greater Cairo (GC) area in Egypt has been evaluated with respect to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) and lead (Pb). Particulate matter was collected during 2001-2002 in the two size fractions PM{sub 2}.5 and PM{sub 1}0 at 17 sites representing different activities (industrial, urban, residential and background condition). The PM concentrations were generally high, with yearly average PM{sub 2}.5 and PM{sub 1}0 values of 85 {+-} 12 and 170 {+-} 25 {mu}g/m{sup -}3, respectively. On an annual scale, the high PM levels were due to many sources that included traffic, waste burning and wind blown dust particles emitted from the desert outside GC and the Moqattam hill inside GC. On a seasonal scale, the PM concentrations were highest in the industrial sector during spring, the dusty season, due to the combined effect of dust storm events and anthropogenic emissions over GC. The lowest seasonal concentrations were recorded in the summer season at the background sites. There was a marked increase in PM levels during the period October to December due to burning of waste from harvested rice in the agriculture area in the Nile Delta (north of Cairo). The highest PM{sub 2}.5/PM{sub 1}0 ratio was recorded in the urban sector (0.59) while the lowest ratio was recorded in the residential sector (0.32). The PM{sub 2}.5 and PM{sub 1}0 samples were also analyzed for Pb in order to address the influence of different emission sources. The monthly average concentrations of Pb in both PM{sub 2}.5 (Pb{sub 2}.5) and PM{sub 1}0 (Pb{sub 1}0) varied between 0.4 and 1.8 {+-} {mu}g m{sup -}3 at the non industrial sites. The concentrations were significantly higher in the industrial areas, where concentration up to a maximum of 16 {+-} g m{sup -}3 could be observed. Both the high lead and PM concentrations measured are contributing to local environmental pollution. GC is subjected to high concentrations of particulates most of the year. There is no