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Sample records for mcgill paleoclimate model

  1. The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part I: Improved land surface scheme with vegetation dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Wang, Zhaomin [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre (GEC3), Montreal, QC (Canada); Brovkin, Victor [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-04-01

    The formulation of a new land surface scheme (LSS) with vegetation dynamics for coupling to the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) is presented. This LSS has the following notable improvements over the old version: (1) parameterization of deciduous and evergreen trees by using the model's climatology and the output of the dynamic global vegetation model, VECODE (Brovkin et al. in Ecological Modelling 101:251-261 (1997), Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16(4):1139, (2002)); (2) parameterization of tree leaf budburst and leaf drop by using the model's climatology; (3) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of the grass leaf area index; (4) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of tree leaf area index by using the time-dependent growth of the leaves; (5) calculation of land surface albedo by using vegetation-related parameters, snow depth and the model's climatology. The results show considerable improvement of the model's simulation of the present-day climate as compared with that simulated in the original physically-based MPM. In particular, the strong seasonality of terrestrial vegetation and the associated land surface albedo variations are in good agreement with several satellite observations of these quantities. The application of this new version of the MPM (the ''green'' MPM) to Holocene millennial-scale climate changes is described in a companion paper, Part II. (orig.)

  2. The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part II: Simulation of Holocene millennial-scale natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Wang, Zhaomin [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre (GEC3), Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Brovkin, Victor [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 601203, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-04-01

    Various proxy data reveal that in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the middle Holocene (6 kyr BP) was warmer than the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) as well as the later Holocene, up to the end of the pre-industrial period (1800 AD). This pattern of warming and then cooling in the NH represents the response of the climate system to changes in orbital forcing, vegetation cover and the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Holocene. In an attempt to better understand these changes in the climate system, the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) has been coupled to the dynamic global vegetation model known as VECODE (see Part I of this two-part paper), and a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed with the ''green'' MPM. The model results illustrate the following: (1) the orbital forcing together with the vegetation - albedo feedback result in the gradual cooling of global SAT from about 6 kyr BP to the end of the pre-industrial period; (2) the disappearance of the LIS over the period 8-6 kyr BP, associated with vegetation - albedo feedback, allows the global SAT to increase and reach its maximum at around 6 kyr BP; (3) the northern limit of the boreal forest moves northward during the period 8-6.4 kyr BP due to the LIS retreat; (4) during the period 6.4-0 kyr BP, the northern limit of the boreal forest moves southward about 120 km in response to the decreasing summer insolation in the NH; and (5) the desertification of northern Africa during the period 8-2.6 kyr BP is mainly explained by the decreasing summer monsoon precipitation. (orig.)

  3. Paleoclimate Modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Computer simulations of past climate. Variables provided as model output are described by parameter keyword. In some cases the parameter keywords are a subset of all...

  4. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  5. McGill wetland model: evaluation of a peatland carbon simulator developed for global assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. St-Hilaire

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed the McGill Wetland Model (MWM based on the general structure of the Peatland Carbon Simulator (PCARS and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. Three major changes were made to PCARS: (1 the light use efficiency model of photosynthesis was replaced with a biogeochemical description of photosynthesis; (2 the description of autotrophic respiration was changed to be consistent with the formulation of photosynthesis; and (3 the cohort, multilayer soil respiration model was changed to a simple one box peat decomposition model divided into an oxic and anoxic zones by an effective water table, and a one-year residence time litter pool. MWM was then evaluated by comparing its output to the estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP, gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (ER from 8 years of continuous measurements at the Mer Bleue peatland, a raised ombrotrophic bog located in southern Ontario, Canada (index of agreement [dimensionless]: NEP = 0.80, GPP = 0.97, ER = 0.97; systematic RMSE [g C m−2 d−1]: NEP = 0.12, GPP = 0.07, ER = 0.14; unsystematic RMSE: NEP = 0.15, GPP = 0.27, ER = 0.23. Simulated moss NPP approximates what would be expected for a bog peatland, but shrub NPP appears to be underestimated. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the model output did not change greatly due to variations in water table because of offsetting responses in production and respiration, but that even a modest temperature increase could lead to converting the bog from a sink to a source of CO2. General weaknesses and further developments of MWM are discussed.

  6. A Taxonomic Reduced-Space Pollen Model for Paleoclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, E. R.; Schoelzel, C.

    2010-12-01

    Paleoenvironmental reconstruction from fossil pollen often attempts to take advantage of the rich taxonomic diversity in such data. Here, a taxonomically "reduced-space" reconstruction model is explored that would be parsimonious in introducing parameters needing to be estimated within a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling context. This work involves a refinement of the traditional pollen ratio method. This method is useful when one (or a few) dominant pollen type(s) in a region have a strong positive correlation with a climate variable of interest and another (or a few) dominant pollen type(s) have a strong negative correlation. When, e.g., counts of pollen taxa a and b (r >0) are combined with pollen types c and d (r logistic generalized linear model (GLM). The GLM can readily model this relationship in the forward form, pollen = g(climate), which is more physically realistic than inverse models often used in paleoclimate reconstruction [climate = f(pollen)]. The specification of the model is: rnum Bin(n,p), where E(r|T) = p = exp(η)/[1+exp(η)], and η = α + β(T); r is the pollen ratio formed as above, rnum is the ratio numerator, n is the ratio denominator (i.e., the sum of pollen counts), the denominator-specific count is (n - rnum), and T is the temperature at each site corresponding to a specific value of r. Ecological and empirical screening identified the model (Spruce+Birch) / (Spruce+Birch+Oak+Hickory) for use in temperate eastern N. America. α and β were estimated using both "traditional" and Bayesian GLM algorithms (in R). Although it includes only four pollen types, the ratio model yields more explained variation ( 80%) in the pollen-temperature relationship of the study region than a 64-taxon modern analog technique (MAT). Thus, the new pollen ratio method represents an information-rich, reduced space data model that can be efficiently employed in a BHM framework. The ratio model can directly reconstruct past temperature by solving the GLM equations

  7. A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

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    C. S. Quiroga Lombard

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210 and 1470/17 (~86.5 years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

  8. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

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    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  9. Comparing Apples to Apples: Paleoclimate Model-Data comparison via Proxy System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, Sylvia; Emile-Geay, Julien; Evans, Michael; Noone, David

    2014-05-01

    The wealth of paleodata spanning the last millennium (hereinafter LM) provides an invaluable testbed for CMIP5-class GCMs. However, comparing GCM output to paleodata is non-trivial. High-resolution paleoclimate proxies generally contain a multivariate and non-linear response to regional climate forcing. Disentangling the multivariate environmental influences on proxies like corals, speleothems, and trees can be complex due to spatiotemporal climate variability, non-stationarity, and threshold dependence. Given these and other complications, many paleodata-GCM comparisons take a leap of faith, relating climate fields (e.g. precipitation, temperature) to geochemical signals in proxy data (e.g. δ18O in coral aragonite or ice cores) (e.g. Braconnot et al., 2012). Isotope-enabled GCMs are a step in the right direction, with water isotopes providing a connector point between GCMs and paleodata. However, such studies are still rare, and isotope fields are not archived as part of LM PMIP3 simulations. More importantly, much of the complexity in how proxy systems record and transduce environmental signals remains unaccounted for. In this study we use proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al., 2013) to bridge this conceptual gap. A PSM mathematically encodes the mechanistic understanding of the physical, geochemical and, sometimes biological influences on each proxy. To translate GCM output to proxy space, we have synthesized a comprehensive, consistently formatted package of published PSMs, including δ18O in corals, tree ring cellulose, speleothems, and ice cores. Each PSM is comprised of three sub-models: sensor, archive, and observation. For the first time, these different components are coupled together for four major proxy types, allowing uncertainties due to both dating and signal interpretation to be treated within a self-consistent framework. The output of this process is an ensemble of many (say N = 1,000) realizations of the proxy network, all equally plausible

  10. Validation of the Danish version of the McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment using classical test theory and the Rasch model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Tina; Lambert, Heather C; Faber, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The study aimed to validate the Danish version of the Canadian the "McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment" (MISA-DK) for measuring dysphagia in frail elders. Method: One-hundred and ten consecutive older medical patients were recruited to the study. Reliability was assessed by internal...... consistency (Chronbach's alpha). External construct validity (convergent and known-groups validity) was evaluated against theoretical constructs assessing the complex concept of ingestive skills. Internal construct validity was tested using Rasch analysis. Results: High internal consistency reliability...... with Chronbach's alpha of 0.77-0.95 was evident. External construct validity was supported by expected high correlations with most of the constructs related to ingestive skills (r(s)¿=¿0.53 to r(s)¿=¿0.66). The MISA-DK discriminated significantly between known-groups. Fit to the Rasch model (x(2) (df)¿=¿12 (12...

  11. An isotopic and modelling study of flow paths and storage in Quaternary calcarenite, SW Australia: implications for speleothem paleoclimate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treble, Pauline C.; Bradley, Chris; Wood, Anne; Baker, Andy; Jex, Catherine N.; Fairchild, Ian J.; Gagan, Michael K.; Cowley, Joan; Azcurra, Cecilia

    2013-03-01

    We investigated the distinctive shallow sub-surface hydrology of the southwest Western Australia (SWWA) dune calcarenite using observed rainfall and rainfall δ18O; soil moisture, cave drip rate and dripwater δ18O over a six-year period: August 2005-March 2012. A lumped parameter hydrological model is developed to describe water fluxes and drip δ18O. Comparison of observed data and model output allow us to assess the critical non-climatic karst hydrological processes that modify the precipitation δ18O signal and discuss the implications for speleothem paleoclimate records from this cave and those with a similar karst setting. Our findings include evidence of multiple reservoirs, characterised by distinct δ18O values and recharge responses ('low' and 'high' flow sites). Dripwaters exhibit δ18O variations in wet versus dry years at low-flow sites receiving diffuse seepage from the epikarst with an attenuated isotopic composition that approximates mean rainfall. Recharge from high-magnitude rain events is stored in a secondary reservoir which is associated with high-flow dripwater that is 1‰ lower than our monitored low-flow sites (δ18O). One drip site is characterised by mixed-flow behaviour and exhibits a non-linear threshold response after the cessation of drainage from a secondary reservoir following a record dry year (2006). Additionally, our results yield a better understanding of the vadose zone hydrology and dripwater characteristics in Quaternary age dune limestones. We show that flow to our monitored sites is dominated by diffuse flow with inferred transit times of less than one year. Diffuse flow appears to follow vertical preferential paths through the limestone reflecting differences in permeability and deep recharge into the host rock.

  12. From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

    2016-04-01

    Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

  13. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  14. Modelling hydrothermal venting in volcanic sedimentary basins: Impact on hydrocarbon maturation and paleoclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Karthik; Schmid, Daniel W.; Planke, Sverre; Millett, John

    2017-06-01

    Vent structures are intimately associated with sill intrusions in sedimentary basins globally and are thought to have been formed contemporaneously due to overpressure generated by gas generation during thermogenic breakdown of kerogen or boiling of water. Methane and other gases generated during this process may have driven catastrophic climate change in the geological past. In this study, we present a 2D FEM/FVM model that accounts for 'explosive' vent formation by fracturing of the host rock based on a case study in the Harstad Basin, offshore Norway. Overpressure generated by gas release during kerogen breakdown in the sill thermal aureole causes fracture formation. Fluid focusing and overpressure migration towards the sill tips results in vent formation after only few tens of years. The size of the vent depends on the region of overpressure accessed by the sill tip. Overpressure migration occurs in self-propagating waves before dissipating at the surface. The amount of methane generated in the system depends on TOC content and also on the type of kerogen present in the host rock. Generated methane moves with the fluids and vents at the surface through a single, large vent structure at the main sill tip matching first-order observations. Violent degassing takes place within the first couple of hundred years and occurs in bursts corresponding to the timing of overpressure waves. The amount of methane vented through a single vent is only a fraction (between 5 and 16%) of the methane generated at depth. Upscaling to the Vøring and Møre Basins, which are a part of the North Atlantic Igneous Province, and using realistic host rock carbon content and kerogen values results in a smaller amount of methane vented than previously estimated for the PETM. Our study, therefore, suggests that the negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) observed in the fossil record could not have been caused by intrusions within the Vøring and Møre Basins alone and that a contribution

  15. Implementation of higher-order vertical finite elements in ISSM v4.13 for improved ice sheet flow modeling over paleoclimate timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Cuzzone

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Paleoclimate proxies are being used in conjunction with ice sheet modeling experiments to determine how the Greenland ice sheet responded to past changes, particularly during the last deglaciation. Although these comparisons have been a critical component in our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet sensitivity to past warming, they often rely on modeling experiments that favor minimizing computational expense over increased model physics. Over Paleoclimate timescales, simulating the thermal structure of the ice sheet has large implications on the modeled ice viscosity, which can feedback onto the basal sliding and ice flow. To accurately capture the thermal field, models often require a high number of vertical layers. This is not the case for the stress balance computation, however, where a high vertical resolution is not necessary. Consequently, since stress balance and thermal equations are generally performed on the same mesh, more time is spent on the stress balance computation than is otherwise necessary. For these reasons, running a higher-order ice sheet model (e.g., Blatter-Pattyn over timescales equivalent to the paleoclimate record has not been possible without incurring a large computational expense. To mitigate this issue, we propose a method that can be implemented within ice sheet models, whereby the vertical interpolation along the z axis relies on higher-order polynomials, rather than the traditional linear interpolation. This method is tested within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM using quadratic and cubic finite elements for the vertical interpolation on an idealized case and a realistic Greenland configuration. A transient experiment for the ice thickness evolution of a single-dome ice sheet demonstrates improved accuracy using the higher-order vertical interpolation compared to models using the linear vertical interpolation, despite having fewer degrees of freedom. This method is also shown to improve a model's ability

  16. Implementation of higher-order vertical finite elements in ISSM v4.13 for improved ice sheet flow modeling over paleoclimate timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuzzone, Joshua K.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Larour, Eric; Schlegel, Nicole; Seroussi, Helene

    2018-05-01

    Paleoclimate proxies are being used in conjunction with ice sheet modeling experiments to determine how the Greenland ice sheet responded to past changes, particularly during the last deglaciation. Although these comparisons have been a critical component in our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet sensitivity to past warming, they often rely on modeling experiments that favor minimizing computational expense over increased model physics. Over Paleoclimate timescales, simulating the thermal structure of the ice sheet has large implications on the modeled ice viscosity, which can feedback onto the basal sliding and ice flow. To accurately capture the thermal field, models often require a high number of vertical layers. This is not the case for the stress balance computation, however, where a high vertical resolution is not necessary. Consequently, since stress balance and thermal equations are generally performed on the same mesh, more time is spent on the stress balance computation than is otherwise necessary. For these reasons, running a higher-order ice sheet model (e.g., Blatter-Pattyn) over timescales equivalent to the paleoclimate record has not been possible without incurring a large computational expense. To mitigate this issue, we propose a method that can be implemented within ice sheet models, whereby the vertical interpolation along the z axis relies on higher-order polynomials, rather than the traditional linear interpolation. This method is tested within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) using quadratic and cubic finite elements for the vertical interpolation on an idealized case and a realistic Greenland configuration. A transient experiment for the ice thickness evolution of a single-dome ice sheet demonstrates improved accuracy using the higher-order vertical interpolation compared to models using the linear vertical interpolation, despite having fewer degrees of freedom. This method is also shown to improve a model's ability to capture sharp

  17. McGill's Integrated Civil and Common Law Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morissette, Yves-Marie

    2002-01-01

    Describes the bijural program of McGill University Faculty of Law. The program educates all first-degree law students in both the common law and civil law traditions, preparing them for the increasing globalization of legal practice. (EV)

  18. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; hide

    2016-01-01

    warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

  19. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2016-03-01

    while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1 cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2 slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3 slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4 increasingly powerful storms; and (5 nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

  20. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Derived Boundary Conditions for Paleoclimate Simulation: the Refined ICE-6G_D (VM5a) Model and the Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Vettoretti, G.; Argus, D. F.

    2017-12-01

    Global models of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process are designed to fit a wide range of geophysical and geomorphological observations that simultaneously constrain the internal viscoelastic structure of Earths interior and the history of grounded ice thickness variations that has occurred over the most recent ice-age cycle of the Late Quaternary interval of time. The most recent refinement of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of such global models from the University of Toronto, ICE-6G_C (VM5a), has recently been slightly modified insofar as its Antarctic component is concerned to produce a "_D" version of the structure. This has been chosen to provide the boundary conditions for the next round of model-data inter-comparisons in the context of the international Paleoclimate Modeling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP). The output of PMIP will contribute to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which is now under way. A highly significant test of the utility of this latest model has recently been performed that is focused upon the Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation that was the primary source of climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) of the most recent glacial cycle. By introducing the surface boundary conditions for paleotopography and paleobathymetry, land-sea mask and surface albedo into the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate model configured at full one degree by one degree CMIP5 resolution, together with the appropriate trace gas and orbital insolation forcing, we show that the millennium timescale Dansgard-Oeschger oscillation naturally develops following spin- up of the model into the glacial state.

  1. The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Berger

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2 and phase 3 (PMIP3. The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 % smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3. In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992, the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch

  2. Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydro-mechanical paleo-climate model of density-dependent groundwater flow in discretely fractured crystalline rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Normani, S.D.; Sykes, J.F.

    2011-01-01

    A high resolution three-dimensional sub-regional scale (104 km 2 ) density-dependent, discretely fractured groundwater flow model with hydro-mechanical coupling and pseudo-permafrost was developed from a larger 5734 km 2 regional-scale groundwater flow model of a Canadian Shield setting. The objective of the work is to determine the sensitivity of modelled groundwater system evolution to the hydro-mechanical parameters. The discrete fracture dual continuum numerical model FRAC3DVS-OPG was used for all simulations. A discrete fracture network model delineated from surface features was superimposed onto an approximate 790 000 element domain mesh with approximately 850 000 nodes. Orthogonal fracture faces (between adjacent finite element grid blocks) were used to best represent the irregular discrete fracture zone network. Interconnectivity of the permeable fracture zones is an important pathway for the possible migration and subsequent reduction in groundwater and contaminant residence times. The crystalline rock matrix between these structural discontinuities was assigned mechanical and flow properties characteristic of those reported for the Canadian Shield. The variation of total dissolved solids with depth was assigned using literature data for the Canadian Shield. Performance measures for the sensitivity analysis include equivalent freshwater heads, environmental heads, linear velocities, and depth of penetration by conservative non-decaying tracers released at the surface. A 121 000 year North American continental scale paleo-climate simulation was applied to the domain with ice-sheet histories estimated by the University of Toronto Glacial Systems Model (UofT GSM). Hydro-mechanical coupling between the rock matrix and the pore fluid, due to the ice sheet normal stress, was included in the simulations. The flow model included the influence of vertical strain and assumed that areal loads were homogeneous. Permafrost depth was applied as a permeability reduction

  3. Further validation of the Danish version of the McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment (MISA-DK)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Tina

    2014-01-01

    Background/aims The McGill Ingestive Skill Assessment (MISA) for measuring dysphagic patients' functional performance during meals has been previously translated into Danish — the Danish McGill Ingestive Skill Assessment (MISA-DK) and this translated version validated. However, issues about......-DK was then tested using 102 videorecordings of geriatric patients' ingestive skill performance, and the data from the scale were examined using a second Rasch analysis. Results Initially, two of the six proposed subscales of the original MISA-DK failed to fit the Rasch model, and were removed. It was also necessary...

  4. Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2010-01-01

    The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

  5. Sill intrusion driven fluid flow and vent formation in volcanic basins: Modeling rates of volatile release and paleoclimate effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Karthik; Schmid, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Evidence of mass extinction events in conjunction with climate change occur throughout the geological record and may be accompanied by pronounced negative carbon isotope excursions. The processes that trigger such globally destructive changes are still under considerable debate. These include mechanisms such as poisoning from trace metals released during large volcanic eruptions (Vogt, 1972), CO2 released from lava degassing during the formation of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) (Courtillot and Renne, 2003) and CH4 release during the destabilization of sub-seafloor methane (Dickens et al., 1995), to name a few. Thermogenic methane derived from contact metamorphism associated with magma emplacement and cooling in sedimentary basins has been recently gaining considerable attention as a potential mechanism that may have triggered global climate events in the past (e.g. Svensen and Jamtveit, 2010). The discovery of hydrothermal vent complexes that are spatially associated with such basins also supports the discharge of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (e.g. Jamtveit et al., 2004; Planke et al., 2005; Svensen et al., 2006). A previous study that investigated this process using a fluid flow model (Iyer et al., 2013) suggested that although hydrothermal plume formation resulting from sill emplacement may indeed release large quantities of methane at the surface, the rate at which this methane is released into the atmosphere is too slow to trigger, by itself, some of the negative δ13C excursions observed in the fossil record over short time scales observed in the fossil record. Here, we reinvestigate the rates of gas release during sill emplacement in a case study from the Harstad Basin off-shore Norway with a special emphasis on vent formation. The presented study is based on a seismic line that crosses multiple sill structures emplaced around 55 Ma within the Lower Cretaceous sediments. A single well-defined vent complex is interpreted above the termination of the

  6. Older medical students' performances at McGill University.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feil, D; Kristian, M; Mitchell, N

    1998-01-01

    To compare admission data and academic performances of medical students younger and older than 25, and to qualify older students' experiences and perceptions in medical school. The authors reviewed 1988-1991 data for applications to the McGill University Faculty of Medicine. Data included GPAs and MCAT scores, as well as ratings for reference letters, autobiographical statements, and interviews. For those same years, the authors measured students' academic performances in the preclinical and clinical years. The authors compared the data by students' age: "younger" students, aged 17 to 24; and "older" students, aged 25 and above. All enrolled students took the Derogatis Stress Profile, and the older students participated in focus groups. The older applicants had lower GPAs and MCAT scores, but higher interview and reference letter ratings. For older accepted students, basic science course scores were lower than those of younger students, but clinical scores did not differ significantly between the groups. The two groups had similar stress levels, although older students tested lower in driven behavior, relaxation potential, attitude posture, and hostility. In focus groups, the older students spoke of learning style differences, loss of social support, and loss of professional identity. Different scores in admission criteria suggest that McGill uses different standards to select older medical students. Older students admitted under different criteria, however, do just as well as do younger students by their clinical years. A broad-based study of admission criteria and outcomes for the older student population is warranted.

  7. A Paleolatitude Calculator for Paleoclimate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douwe J J van Hinsbergen

    Full Text Available Realistic appraisal of paleoclimatic information obtained from a particular location requires accurate knowledge of its paleolatitude defined relative to the Earth's spin-axis. This is crucial to, among others, correctly assess the amount of solar energy received at a location at the moment of sediment deposition. The paleolatitude of an arbitrary location can in principle be reconstructed from tectonic plate reconstructions that (1 restore the relative motions between plates based on (marine magnetic anomalies, and (2 reconstruct all plates relative to the spin axis using a paleomagnetic reference frame based on a global apparent polar wander path. Whereas many studies do employ high-quality relative plate reconstructions, the necessity of using a paleomagnetic reference frame for climate studies rather than a mantle reference frame appears under-appreciated. In this paper, we briefly summarize the theory of plate tectonic reconstructions and their reference frames tailored towards applications of paleoclimate reconstruction, and show that using a mantle reference frame, which defines plate positions relative to the mantle, instead of a paleomagnetic reference frame may introduce errors in paleolatitude of more than 15° (>1500 km. This is because mantle reference frames cannot constrain, or are specifically corrected for the effects of true polar wander. We used the latest, state-of-the-art plate reconstructions to build a global plate circuit, and developed an online, user-friendly paleolatitude calculator for the last 200 million years by placing this plate circuit in three widely used global apparent polar wander paths. As a novelty, this calculator adds error bars to paleolatitude estimates that can be incorporated in climate modeling. The calculator is available at www.paleolatitude.org. We illustrate the use of the paleolatitude calculator by showing how an apparent wide spread in Eocene sea surface temperatures of southern high

  8. Medical Genetics at McGill: The History of a Pioneering Research Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canning, Christopher; Weisz, George; Tone, Andrea; Cambrosio, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The McGill Group in Medical Genetics was formed in 1972, supported by the Medical Research Council and successor Canadian Institutes for Health Research until September 2009, making it the longest active biomedical research group in the history of Canada. We document the history of the McGill Group and situate its research within a broader history of medical genetics. Drawing on original oral histories with the Group's members, surviving documents, and archival materials, we explore how the Group's development was structured around epistemological trends in medical genetics, policy choices made by research agencies, and the development of genetics at McGill University and its hospitals.

  9. Tracking variable sedimentation rates in orbitally forced paleoclimate proxy series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; Kump, L. R.; Hinnov, L.

    2017-12-01

    This study addresses two fundamental issues in cyclostratigraphy: quantitative testing of orbital forcing in cyclic sedimentary sequences and tracking variable sedimentation rates. The methodology proposed here addresses these issues as an inverse problem, and estimates the product-moment correlation coefficient between the frequency spectra of orbital solutions and paleoclimate proxy series over a range of "test" sedimentation rates. It is inspired by the ASM method (1). The number of orbital parameters involved in the estimation is also considered. The method relies on the hypothesis that orbital forcing had a significant impact on the paleoclimate proxy variations, and thus is also tested. The null hypothesis of no astronomical forcing is evaluated using the Beta distribution, for which the shape parameters are estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. We introduce a metric to estimate the most likely sedimentation rate using the product-moment correlation coefficient, H0 significance level, and the number of contributing orbital parameters, i.e., the CHO value. The CHO metric is applied with a sliding window to track variable sedimentation rates along the paleoclimate proxy series. Two forward models with uniform and variable sedimentation rates are evaluated to demonstrate the robustness of the method. The CHO method is applied to the classical Late Triassic Newark depth rank series; the estimated sedimentation rates match closely with previously published sedimentation rates and provide a more highly time-resolved estimate (2,3). References: (1) Meyers, S.R., Sageman, B.B., Amer. J. Sci., 307, 773-792, 2007; (2) Kent, D.V., Olsen, P.E., Muttoni, G., Earth-Sci. Rev.166, 153-180, 2017; (3) Li, M., Zhang, Y., Huang, C., Ogg, J., Hinnov, L., Wang, Y., Zou, Z., Li, L., 2017. Earth Plant. Sc. Lett. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2017.07.015

  10. GPM GROUND VALIDATION MCGILL W-BAND RADAR GCPEX V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GPM Ground Validation McGill W-Band Radar GCPEx dataset was collected from February 1, 2012 to February 29, 2012 at the CARE site in Ontario, Canada as a part of...

  11. Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history

  12. Life science experiments during parabolic flight: The McGill experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watt, D. G. D.

    1988-01-01

    Over the past twelve years, members of the Aerospace Medical Research Unit of McGill University have carried out a wide variety of tests and experiments in the weightless condition created by parabolic flight. This paper discusses the pros and cons of that environment for the life scientist, and uses examples from the McGill program of the types of activities which can be carried out in a transport aircraft such as the NASA KC-135.

  13. Tales from the Paleoclimate Underground: Lessons Learned from Reconstructing Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frappier, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    Tracing patterns of paleoclimate extremes over the past two millennia is becoming ever more important in the effort to understand and predict costly weather hazards and their varied societal impacts. I present three paleoclimate vignettes from the past ten years of different paleotempestology projects I have worked on closely, illustrating our collective challenges and productive pathways in reconstructing rainfall extremes: temporal, spatial, and combining information from disparate proxies. Finally, I aim to share new results from modeling multiple extremes and hazards in Yucatan, a climate change hotspot.

  14. Complex Empiricism and the Quantification of Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumble, K. C.

    2014-12-01

    Because the global climate cannot be observed directly, and because of vast and noisy data sets, climate science is a rich field to study how computational statistics informs what it means to do empirical science. Traditionally held virtues of empirical science and empirical methods like reproducibility, independence, and straightforward observation are complicated by representational choices involved in statistical modeling and data handling. Examining how climate reconstructions instantiate complicated empirical relationships between model, data, and predictions reveals that the path from data to prediction does not match traditional conceptions of empirical inference either. Rather, the empirical inferences involved are "complex" in that they require articulation of a good deal of statistical processing wherein assumptions are adopted and representational decisions made, often in the face of substantial uncertainties. Proxy reconstructions are both statistical and paleoclimate science activities aimed at using a variety of proxies to reconstruct past climate behavior. Paleoclimate proxy reconstructions also involve complex data handling and statistical refinement, leading to the current emphasis in the field on the quantification of uncertainty in reconstructions. In this presentation I explore how the processing needed for the correlation of diverse, large, and messy data sets necessitate the explicit quantification of the uncertainties stemming from wrangling proxies into manageable suites. I also address how semi-empirical pseudo-proxy methods allow for the exploration of signal detection in data sets, and as intermediary steps for statistical experimentation.

  15. [Dante's Inferno and the McGill Pain Questionnaire].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonelli, N; Marcolongo, R

    2007-01-01

    To study the images which depict the damned's sufferings in Dante's Inferno, in their expression of the several meanings of "pain", the semantics of "pain" in the poem has been analyzed, eventually trying to determine whether the organization of punishments of Inferno may somehow mirror a disability scale. A detailed analysis of the text was carried out, which proved a valuable tool for interpreting the organization of punishments as a possible disability scale. The semantics of pain in the Divine Comedy was studied through all the forms of the pain descriptors (included the archaic terminological forms) from the Italian version of the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MGPQ) by Maiani and Sanavio. In Dante's Inferno a classification of pain is provided, based on the experience of sufferings; Dante's images seem not only instrumental to investigating the sensorial but also the affective and intellectual spheres by introducing a number of characters and describing the impact of punishment onto their souls. Our research highlighted that 46 out of 78 terms from the MGPQ are present in Inferno, though with different forms; the Groups the MGPQ is divided into are also represented with the exception of Group XII, the most frequently detected being Groups XIII-which studies the fear-related sensations in the emotional sphere - XIV, XIX and XX. The great attention emerges that Dante devoted to describing simple sensorial experiences as well as the way punishments affected the soul. As a whole, the terms pertaining to the sensorial sphere are the most frequently encountered. The lack of motion which increases circle after circle in Hell, well matches the progressing physical and psychological impairment caused by some invalidating diseases. Noticeably, Dante created such a complex system centuries before the studies were released on the impact of pain and its quantitative and mostly qualitative definition. In conclusion, this interpretation suggests that the writing on the door to

  16. PaleoClim: new datasets to quantify the impact of past climate changes on modern biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, D. J.; Brown, J. T.; Carnaval, A. C.; Haywood, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Palaeoclimate history is an important driver of modern patterns of biodiversity and many ecological modelling studies have shown the predictive power of palaeoclimate information. However, a major limiting factor to such studies is the availability of global palaeoclimate reconstructions in the relevant bioclim layers. The primary source of such fields is from climate model simulations, which are currently limited to the key PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) intervals of the mid-Holocene (6ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (21ka) and the Last Interglaciation (130ka). The PaleoClim project will significantly increase the availability of pre-processed palaeoclimate bioclim information and provide a new platform for accessing the information. The first new PaleoClim time period will be the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3Ma). This is the last period of sustained globally warmer than modern climate in Earth history and represents the last global warmth before the cooling into the Pleistocene ice ages. Being 3 million years ago this represents a significant lengthening of the time range of available bioclim layers and the first time these have been available over evolutionary timescales. PaleoClim will also greatly expand the available Pleistocene time periods, looking to both quantify the differences between the late Pleistocene interglacial periods and understand the role of orbital changes in modulating tropical precipitation and driving modern biodiversity patterns.

  17. Pollen-Based Inverse Modelling versus Data Assimilation, two Different Ways to Consider Priors in Paleoclimate Reconstruction: Application to the Mediterranean Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiot, J.

    2017-12-01

    In the last decades, climate reconstruction has much evolved. A important step has been passed with inverse modelling approach proposed by Guiot et al (2000). It is based on appropriate algorithms in the frame of the Bayesian statistical theory to estimate the inputs of a vegetation model when the outputs are known. The inputs are the climate variables that we want to reconstruct and the outputs are vegetation characteristics, which can be compared to pollen data. The Bayesian framework consists in defining prior distribution of the wanted climate variables and in using data and a model to estimate posterior probability distribution. The main interest of the method is the possibility to set different values of exogenous variables as the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The fact that the CO2 concentration has an influence on the photosynthesis and that its level is different between the calibration period (the 20th century) and the past, there is an important risk of biases on the reconstructions. After that initial paper, numerous papers have been published showing the interested of the method. In that approach, the prior distribution is fixed by educated guess of by using complementary information on the expected climate (other proxies or other records). In the data assimilation approach, the prior distribution is provided by a climate model. The use of a vegetation model together with proxy data, enable to calculate posterior distributions. Data assimilation consists in constraining climate model to reproduce estimates relatively close to the data, taking into account the respective errors of the data and of the climate model (Dubinkina et al, 2011). We compare both approaches using pollen data for the Holocene from the Mediterranean. Pollen data have been extracted from the European Pollen Database. The earth system model, LOVECLIM, is run to simulate Holocene climate with appropriate boundary conditions and realistic forcing. Simulated climate variables

  18. A new space-time characterization of Northern Hemisphere drought in model simulations of the past and future as compared to the paleoclimate record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Stevenson, S.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The observational record, which provides only limited sampling of past climate variability, has made it difficult to quantitatively analyze the complex spatio-temporal character of drought. To provide a more complete characterization of drought, machine learning based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space-time are applied to climate model simulations of the last millennium and future, as well as tree-ring based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. A focus is given to the most persistent and severe droughts of the past 1000 years. Analyzing reconstructions and simulations in this context allows for a validation of the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought in climate model simulations. Furthermore, the long records provided by the reconstructions and simulations, allows for sufficient sampling to constrain projected changes to the spatio-temporal character of these features using the reconstructions. Along these lines, climate models suggest that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but little change in their spatial extent. These models, however, exhibit biases in the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought over parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which may undermine their usefulness for future projections. Despite these limitations, and in contrast to previous claims, there are no systematic changes in the character of persistent and severe droughts in simulations of the historical interval. This suggests that climate models are not systematically overestimating the hydroclimate response to anthropogenic forcing over this period, with critical implications for confidence in hydroclimate projections.

  19. Speleothem Paleoclimate Records from the Floridian Panhandle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froelich, P. N.; Kowalczk, A. J.; McCardle, D.; Tibbetts, N.

    2007-12-01

    Geochemical time-series constructed from speleothem records provide a high resolution view into paleoclimate conditions temporally unmatched by deep ocean sediment and ice core records. The potential of speleothem records is vast with immense spatial and temporal resolution. One surprise to the speleothem paleoclimate community is the absence of high resolution speleothem isotope and trace element records from Florida, an area of extensive karstic geology, a plethora of caves, and monsoon-like climate. Two stalagmites collected from Brooks Quarry Cave, recently opened in Marianna, FL will provide one of the first Holocene speleothem climate records from the Southeast. Speleothem BC-1 is a 71 cm calcite stalagmite collected in situ. Speleothem BC-2 is a 6.1 cm stalagmite collected inside the quarried entrance to the cave. Both dripstones are banded and laminated at what appear to be 11-year cycles (dating in progress). If these are annual "sparves" (speleothem varves), the growth rates are approximately 100 μm per year. BC-1 would extend through much of the Holocene. RGB scans along the polished length of the growth axis reveal color cyclicity related to bundles of these bands. Isotope records from BC-2 reveal a multi-year record showing a variation of -2.7 ‰ to -6 ‰ in δ18O and -3.7 ‰ to -9.1‰ in δ13C, with no correlation between the two. High resolution multi-element laser ablation scans across 8 "sparves" (2.3 mm length) reveals co-variation in U and Ba with other elements showing weaker banding correlations with "clays" (Si, Fe, Mn, Ce, Rb). Photomicrographs of the laser tracks show correlation of visible "sparves" to chemical variations. Medical CT imaging techniques were applied to sample BC-1using a GE Lightspeed Plus CT scanner at maximum power (140 kV, 565 mA) and medium resolution (0.6 mm per scan slice) to view density differences and pore spaces inside the calcite matrix. CT technology reveals a porous nature of the calcite matrix in the lower

  20. Reliability of the Danish version of the McGill ingestive skills assessment for observation-based measures during meals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Tina; Lambert, Heather C; Faber, Jens

    2012-01-01

    To establish measurement equivalence in terms of reliability of the Danish version of the Canadian McGill ingestive skills assessment (MISA) for use by occupational therapists.......To establish measurement equivalence in terms of reliability of the Danish version of the Canadian McGill ingestive skills assessment (MISA) for use by occupational therapists....

  1. IDRC “unpacks women's empowerment” at McGill University ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-03-14

    Mar 14, 2018 ... English · Français ... at the annual conference of McGill University's Institute for the Study ... women's autonomy, voice, and well-being in the household, at work, ... ISID has also tackled how to measure women's economic empowerment by reviewing the various approaches used in GrOW research projects.

  2. Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records

    OpenAIRE

    Foreman, Brady Z.; Straub, Kyle M.

    2017-01-01

    Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and ...

  3. Synthesizing late Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions: Lessons learned, common challenges, and implications for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodysill, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy-based reconstructions provide vital information for developing histories of environmental and climate changes. Networks of spatiotemporal paleoclimate information are powerful tools for understanding dynamical processes within the global climate system and improving model-based predictions of the patterns and magnitudes of climate changes at local- to global-scales. Compiling individual paleoclimate records and integrating reconstructed climate information in the context of an ensemble of multi-proxy records, which are fundamental for developing a spatiotemporal climate data network, are hindered by challenges related to data and information accessibility, chronological uncertainty, sampling resolution, climate proxy type, and differences between depositional environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group has been compiling and integrating multi-proxy paleoclimate data as part of an ongoing effort to synthesize Holocene climate records from North America. The USGS North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group recently completed a late Holocene hydroclimate synthesis for the North American continent using several proxy types from a range of depositional environments, including lakes, wetlands, coastal marine, and cave speleothems. Using new age-depth relationships derived from the Bacon software package, we identified century-scale patterns of wetness and dryness for the past 2000 years with an age uncertainty-based confidence rating for each proxy record. Additionally, for highly-resolved North American lake sediment records, we computed average late Holocene sediment deposition rates and identified temporal trends in age uncertainty that are common to multiple lakes. This presentation addresses strengths and challenges of compiling and integrating data from different paleoclimate archives, with a particular focus on lake sediments, which may inform and guide future paleolimnological studies.

  4. Development of a North American paleoclimate pollen-based reconstruction database application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, Matthew; Mosher, Steven; Viau, Andre

    2013-04-01

    Recent efforts in synthesizing paleoclimate records across the globe has warranted an effort to standardize the different paleoclimate archives currently available in order to facilitate data-model comparisons and hence improve our estimates of future climate change. It is often the case that the methodology and programs make it challenging for other researchers to reproduce the results for a reconstruction, therefore there is a need for to standardize paleoclimate reconstruction databases in an application specific to proxy data. Here we present a methodology using the open source R language using North American pollen databases (e.g. NAPD, NEOTOMA) where this application can easily be used to perform new reconstructions and quickly analyze and output/plot the data. The application was developed to easily test methodological and spatial/temporal issues that might affect the reconstruction results. The application allows users to spend more time analyzing and interpreting results instead of on data management and processing. Some of the unique features of this R program are the two modules each with a menu making the user feel at ease with the program, the ability to use different pollen sums, select one of 70 climate variables available, substitute an appropriate modern climate dataset, a user-friendly regional target domain, temporal resolution criteria, linear interpolation and many other features for a thorough exploratory data analysis. The application program will be available for North American pollen-based reconstructions and eventually be made available as a package through the CRAN repository by late 2013.

  5. Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes P.; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-11-01

    Obtaining reliable reconstructions of long-term atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic region presents a persistent challenge to contemporary paleoclimate research, which has been addressed by a multitude of recent studies. In order to contribute a novel methodological aspect to this active field, we apply here evolving functional network analysis, a recently developed tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure of the Earth's climate system, to a set of Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By comparing the time-dependent inter-regional linkage structures of the obtained functional paleoclimate network representations to a recent multi-centennial NAO reconstruction, we identify co-variability between southern Greenland, Svalbard, and Fennoscandia as being indicative of a positive NAO phase, while connections from Greenland and Fennoscandia to central Europe are more pronounced during negative NAO phases. By drawing upon this correspondence, we use some key parameters of the evolving network structure to obtain a qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era (last 2000 years) using a linear regression model trained upon the existing shorter reconstruction.

  6. The Case for Information Brokering During Major Change: The Experience of the Transition Support Office of the McGill University Health Centre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klag, Malvina; Richer, Marie-Claire

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the emergence of an "information brokerage" in the project management office of the McGill University Health Centre (MUHC) in Montreal. This process evolved during unprecedented transformation linked to a redevelopment project. Information brokering became a core function in the MUHC's context of major change. To develop an information brokering model, the paper draws upon the literature on knowledge brokering, applies Daft and Lengel's (1986) seminal framework on information processing in organizations, and builds on the MUHC experience. The paper proposes that knowledge brokering and information brokering are related, yet distinct in content, purpose and structure.

  7. The paleoclimate of the Kazanian (early Late Permian) world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, G.T. (Chevron Oil Field Research Co., La Habra, CA (USA)); Peoples, C.J. (Texas A and M Univ., College Station (USA))

    1990-05-01

    The Kazanian (early Late Permian, 258-253 m.y.) marked the onset of a unique interval in the Phanerozoic, distinguished by a classic end-member case of continental assembly, the megacontinent Pangaea. Compilation of biostratigraphic and lithofacies data indicate a warm, extensively arid world, largely ice free, and characterized by the onset of atmospheric conditions that were exceedingly stressful to the biosphere, the worst of the eon. Using Chevron's version of the Community Climate model, the authors report here on two Kazanian paleoclimate seasonal simulations, one using 200 ppm CO{sub 2} and the other with 2,000 ppm CO{sub 2}. The authors consider the knowledge of plate assembly back to the Permian accurate enough to allow employment of a seasonal model. Simulation of a warmer Earth with an elevated greenhouse effect (modeled as CO{sub 2}) fits the observed geology and isotope signals. The increased CO{sub 2} experiment warmed the entire planet with the greatest increases north of 50{degree} latitude and least changes in the tropics. The warming caused the poleward retreat of sea ice in both hemispheres. Precipitation and evaporation increased, but runoff was confined to areas of very intense rainfall. Monsoons are limited to the southern hemisphere, associated with the western Tethys sea and the eastern equatorial Panthalassa ocean. Extreme southeastern Pangaea (northern Australia) was a focus of precipitation throughout the year. Precipitation occurred in the higher latitudes (50-55{degree}) on the western coast, of Pangaea where storm tracks make landfall. High evaporation rates characterized the restricted Permian (US), Zechstein, and Perm (Soviet Union) basins, a time of evaporite, deposition. Interior Pangaea at middle to high latitudes endured frigid winters ({minus}40{degree}C) and torrid summers (60{degree}C).

  8. Phil Wallace and Theoretical Physics at McGill in the 1950's: A Personal Perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, John David

    2010-01-01

    In 1946 Philip (Phil) Russell Wallace joined the Mathematics Department of McGill University as an Associate Professor of Applied Mathematics, apparently because A. H. S. Gillson, Dean of Arts and Science, wanted theoretical physicists to be in the Mathematics Department. He came with the dream of creating a theoretical physics group at McGill. By the spring of 1949, Phil was authorized to recruit two junior faculty in Mathematics. He hired Theodore (Ted) F. Morris from U. Toronto, who joined in September 1949, and me, who came in January 1950. The group had begun. Phil Wallace was born in Toronto in 1915 and grew up there. He entered the University of Toronto in 1933, earned a B.A. in mathematics in 1937, a M.A. in 1938, and a Ph.D. in applied mathematics in 1940 under Leopold Infeld. His Ph.D. thesis in general relativity was entitled 'On the relativistic equations of motion in electromagnetic theory.' In 1940 World War II had engulfed Europe and was having its effect on Canada, but the US was still at peace. L. J. Synge, Head of the Applied Mathematics Department at Toronto, told Wallace that people such as he would be needed in war work, but things were not ready quite yet. Hold yourself ready. Phil took a two-year position as lecturer in mathematics at the University of Cincinnati (1940-42); in the fall of 1942 he became a lecturer in mathematics at M.I.T. It was from there that he was recruited by Synge to join the war effort from 1943 to 1946 at N.R.C.'s Montreal Laboratory, the genesis of the Canadian Atomic Energy Project. Phil has described those heady wartime years in these pages. Much of the effort of the theoretical physicists was on nuclear reactor theory and the properties of relevant materials, such as graphite, under long and intense neutron bombardment. In late 1945 Phil was sent for four months to Bristol to learn about the properties of graphite from the esteemed N. F. Mott. This exposure led Phil to a life-long interest in graphite and in

  9. Kinetostatic and Inertial Conditioning of the McGill Schönflies-Motion Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Cammarata

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the optimization of the McGill Schönflies Motion Generator. Recent trends on optimum design of parallel robots led us to investigate the advantages and disadvantages derived from an optimization based on performance indices. Particularly, we optimize here two different indices: the kinematic conditioning and the inertial conditioning, pertaining to the condition number of the Jacobian matrix and to that of the generalized inertia matrix of the robot, respectively. The problem of finding the characteristic length for the robot is first investigated by means of a constrained optimization problem; then plots of the kinetostatic and the inertial conditioning indices are provided for a particular trajectory to be tracked by the moving platform of the SMG. Deep connections appear between the two indices, reflecting a correlation between kinematics and dynamics.

  10. A 507-year rainfall and runoff reconstruction for the Monsoonal North West, Australia derived from remote paleoclimate archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Hancock, Gregory R.; Lowry, John B.

    2017-11-01

    The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond.

  11. Development of the McGill simulator for endoscopic sinus surgery: a new high-fidelity virtual reality simulator for endoscopic sinus surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varshney, Rickul; Frenkiel, Saul; Nguyen, Lily H P; Young, Meredith; Del Maestro, Rolando; Zeitouni, Anthony; Tewfik, Marc A

    2014-01-01

    The technical challenges of endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) and the high risk of complications support the development of alternative modalities to train residents in these procedures. Virtual reality simulation is becoming a useful tool for training the skills necessary for minimally invasive surgery; however, there are currently no ESS virtual reality simulators available with valid evidence supporting their use in resident education. Our aim was to develop a new rhinology simulator, as well as to define potential performance metrics for trainee assessment. The McGill simulator for endoscopic sinus surgery (MSESS), a new sinus surgery virtual reality simulator with haptic feedback, was developed (a collaboration between the McGill University Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, the Montreal Neurologic Institute Simulation Lab, and the National Research Council of Canada). A panel of experts in education, performance assessment, rhinology, and skull base surgery convened to identify core technical abilities that would need to be taught by the simulator, as well as performance metrics to be developed and captured. The MSESS allows the user to perform basic sinus surgery skills, such as an ethmoidectomy and sphenoidotomy, through the use of endoscopic tools in a virtual nasal model. The performance metrics were developed by an expert panel and include measurements of safety, quality, and efficiency of the procedure. The MSESS incorporates novel technological advancements to create a realistic platform for trainees. To our knowledge, this is the first simulator to combine novel tools such as the endonasal wash and elaborate anatomic deformity with advanced performance metrics for ESS.

  12. The Brazilian Northeastern paleoclimate according to the isotope hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frischkorn, Horst; Santiago, Maria Marlucia Freitas

    1992-01-01

    This work interprets measures in deep well waters of the Serra Grande aquifer from the Piaui State. It uses the temperature and quantity effects on the oxygen isotopic composition in the pluvial water, together the noble gases analysis dissolved in water and 14 C dating in the bicarbonates to establish a time scale, aiming to reconstruct the Brazil Northeastern region paleoclimate at the Pleistocene final era, as well as to elucidate the hydric resources formation conditions (that date from this epoch) in the deep aquifers of the region sedimentary basins

  13. Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Brady Z; Straub, Kyle M

    2017-09-01

    Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 10 4 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation.

  14. Pangaean climate during the Early Jurassic: GCM simulations and the sedimentary record of paleoclimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandler, M.A. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States); Rind, D.; Ruedy, R. [Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    1992-05-01

    Results from new simulations of the Early Jurassic climate show that increased ocean heat transport may have been the primary force generating warmer climates during the past 180 m.y. The simulations, conducted using the general circulation model (GCM) at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, include realistic representations of paleocontinental distribution, topography, epeiric seas, and vegetation, in order to facilitate comparisons between model results and paleoclimate data. three major features of the simulated Early Jurassic climate include the following. (1) A global warming, compared to the present, of 5 {degrees}C to 10 {degrees}C, with temperature increases at high latitudes five times this global average. Average summer temperatures exceed 35 {degrees}C in low-latitude regions of western Pangaea where eolian sandstones testify to the presence of vast deserts. (2) Simulated precipitation and evaporation patterns agree closely with the moisture distribution interpreted from evaporites, and coal deposits. High rainfall rates are associated primarily with monsoons that originate over the warm Tethys Ocean. Unlike the {open_quotes}megamonsoons{close_quotes} proposed in previous studies, these systems are found to be associated with localized pressure cells whose positions are controlled by topography and coastal geography. (3) Decreases in planetary albedo, occurring because of reductions in sea ice, snow cover, and low clouds, and increases in atmospheric water vapor are the positive climate feedbacks that amplify the global warming. Similar to other Mesozoic climate simulations, our model finds that large seasonal temperature fluctuations occurred over mid- and high-latitude continental interiors, refuting paleoclimate evidence that suggests more equable conditions. 101 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs.

  15. The McGill simulator for endoscopic sinus surgery (MSESS): a validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varshney, Rickul; Frenkiel, Saul; Nguyen, Lily H P; Young, Meredith; Del Maestro, Rolando; Zeitouni, Anthony; Saad, Elias; Funnell, W Robert J; Tewfik, Marc A

    2014-10-24

    Endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) is a technically challenging procedure, associated with a significant risk of complications. Virtual reality simulation has demonstrated benefit in many disciplines as an important educational tool for surgical training. Within the field of rhinology, there is a lack of ESS simulators with appropriate validity evidence supporting their integration into residency education. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the acceptability, perceived realism and benefit of the McGill Simulator for Endoscopic Sinus Surgery (MSESS) among medical students, otolaryngology residents and faculty, and to present evidence supporting its ability to differentiate users based on their level of training through the performance metrics. 10 medical students, 10 junior residents, 10 senior residents and 3 expert sinus surgeons performed anterior ethmoidectomies, posterior ethmoidectomies and wide sphenoidotomies on the MSESS. Performance metrics related to quality (e.g. percentage of tissue removed), efficiency (e.g. time, path length, bimanual dexterity, etc.) and safety (e.g. contact with no-go zones, maximum applied force, etc.) were calculated. All users completed a post-simulation questionnaire related to realism, usefulness and perceived benefits of training on the MSESS. The MSESS was found to be realistic and useful for training surgical skills with scores of 7.97 ± 0.29 and 8.57 ± 0.69, respectively on a 10-point rating scale. Most students and residents (29/30) believed that it should be incorporated into their curriculum. There were significant differences between novice surgeons (10 medical students and 10 junior residents) and senior surgeons (10 senior residents and 3 sinus surgeons) in performance metrics related to quality (p education. This simulator may be a potential resource to help fill the void in endoscopic sinus surgery training.

  16. Dante’s Inferno and the McGill Pain Questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Marcolongo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Aims of the study: To study the images which depict the damned’s sufferings in Dante’s Inferno, in their expression of the several meanings of “pain”, the semantics of “pain” in the poem has been analyzed, eventually trying to determine whether the organization of punishments of Inferno may somehow mirror a disability scale. Methods: A detailed analysis of the text was carried out, which proved a valuable tool for interpreting the organization of punishments as a possible disability scale. The semantics of pain in the Divine Comedy was studied through all the forms of the pain descriptors (included the archaic terminological forms from the Italian version of the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MGPQ by Maiani and Sanavio. Results and Conclusions: In Dante’s Inferno a classification of pain is provided, based on the experience of sufferings; Dante’s images seem not only instrumental to investigating the sensorial but also the affective and intellectual spheres by introducing a number of characters and describing the impact of punishment onto their souls. Our research highlighted that 46 out of 78 terms from the MGPQ are present in Inferno, though with different forms; the Groups the MGPQ is divided into are also represented with the exception of Group XII, the most frequently detected being Groups XIII-which studies the fear-related sensations in the emotional sphere - XIV, XIX and XX. The great attention emerges that Dante devoted to describing simple sensorial experiences as well as the way punishments affected the soul. As a whole, the terms pertaining to the sensorial sphere are the most frequently encountered. The lack of motion which increases circle after circle in Hell, well matches the progressing physical and psychological impairment caused by some invalidating diseases. Noticeably, Dante created such a complex system centuries before the studies were released on the impact of pain and its quantitative and mostly qualitative

  17. Revisiting the psychometric properties of a revised Danish version of the McGill ingestive skills assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Tina; Kristiansen, Dorte Melgaard

    2017-01-01

    Background: During a longstanding validation process of the Danish version of the McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment (MISA2-DK) for measuring mealtime performance in dysphagic clients, extensive revisions have been undertaken. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the psychometric properties...... of this revised version. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 328 adults referred to occupational therapy for swallowing evaluation were included. MISA2-DK with 36 items distributed into four subscales (positioning for meals, self-feeding skills, liquid ingestion, and solid ingestion) was administered...

  18. Validation of a New Questionnaire with Generic and Disease-Specific Qualities: The Mcgill Copd Quality of Life Questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smita Pakhale

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A validated health-related quality of life questionnaire in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD with advantages of both generic- and disease-specific questionnaires is needed to capture patients’ perspectives of severity and impact of the disease. The McGill COPD questionnaire was created to include these advantages in English and French. It assesses three domains: symptoms, physical function and feelings with 29 items (12 from the 36-item Short-Form Health Survey with 17 from the previously developed COPD-specific module.

  19. Coupled hydromechanical paleoclimate analyses of density-dependant groundwater flow in discretely fractured crystalline rock settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normani, S. D.; Sykes, J. F.; Jensen, M. R.

    2009-04-01

    A high resolution sub-regional scale (84 km2) density-dependent, fracture zone network groundwater flow model with hydromechanical coupling and pseudo-permafrost, was developed from a larger 5734 km2 regional scale groundwater flow model of a Canadian Shield setting in fractured crystalline rock. The objective of the work is to illustrate aspects of regional and sub-regional groundwater flow that are relevant to the long-term performance of a hypothetical nuclear fuel repository. The discrete fracture dual continuum numerical model FRAC3DVS-OPG was used for all simulations. A discrete fracture zone network model delineated from surface features was superimposed onto an 789887 element flow domain mesh. Orthogonal fracture faces (between adjacent finite element grid blocks) were used to best represent the irregular discrete fracture zone network. The crystalline rock between these structural discontinuities was assigned properties characteristic of those reported for the Canadian Shield at the Underground Research Laboratory at Pinawa, Manitoba. Interconnectivity of permeable fracture features is an important pathway for the possibly relatively rapid migration of average water particles and subsequent reduction in residence times. The multiple 121000 year North American continental scale paleoclimate simulations are provided by W.R. Peltier using the University of Toronto Glacial Systems Model (UofT GSM). Values of ice sheet normal stress, and proglacial lake depth from the UofT GSM are applied to the sub-regional model as surface boundary conditions, using a freshwater head equivalent to the normal stress imposed by the ice sheet at its base. Permafrost depth is applied as a permeability reduction to both three-dimensional grid blocks and fractures that lie within the time varying permafrost zone. Two different paleoclimate simulations are applied to the sub-regional model to investigate the effect on the depth of glacial meltwater migration into the subsurface. In

  20. A stochastic vision of the paleoclimate. Modelling and predictibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel HAIDU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is related to the use of stochastic methods to appreciate if the recent climate trend is similar to the decennial trends of the last thousands years.If not, it means that the present climate change is unprecedented.If yes, it means that the extraordinary climatic events of the recent years are a natural expression of climate variability, but the memory of several generations and of instrumental series, more than 100 years old, cannot point it out. The first hypothesis is an “alarming” possibility, while the latter is a “relaxing” one.

  1. From Osler's Library to the Osler Library of the History of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Christopher

    2007-01-01

    The Osler Library of the History of Medicine was opened in 1929 at McGill University, Montreal, Canada. Sir William Osler (1849-1919), arguably McGill's and Canada's most famous doctor at the time, had bequeathed his magnificent library of almost 8,000 historical works in medicine and, to a lesser extent, science and literature to the university. Under the 30-year reign of its first librarian, Dr. W W. Francis, the Osler Library became famous for its rare books and for its connection with Sir William. Since the 1950s, however, the library has pursued an active collection development policy for both primary and secondary material that has taken it far beyond Osler's original gift. The library has grown in both the size and scope of its holdings and the services it offers to scholars and students of the history of medicine. These have made the Osler Library a major resource centre for studies in the history of the health sciences. This article looks at the Osler Library today in the hopes of making the range of its collections and services better known to the Canadian and international communities.

  2. Comparison of the Effect of Dry Cupping Therapy and Acupressure at BL23 Point on Intensity of Postpartum Perineal Pain Based on the Short Form of McGill Pain Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbarzade, Marzieh; Ghaemmaghami, Mehrnoush; Yazdanpanahi, Zahra; Zare, Najaf; Mohagheghzadeh, Abdolali; Azizi, Amir

    2016-01-01

    Perineal pain is a major morbidity in the first few days after delivery. This study aimed to investigate the effect of dry cupping therapy and acupressure at BL23 point on the intensity of postpartum perineal pain based on the short-form of McGill pain questionnaire (SMPQ). The present clinical trial was conducted on 150 subjects in 3 groups of 50 cases. After at least 4-8 hr of delivery, cupping therapy was performed for 15-20 min up to 3 times a week (once a day) and acupressure was performed for 15-20 min based on clockwise model. The short-form of McGill pain questionnaire was completed both before and after the intervention. The SPSS statistical software was used to analyze the data using repeated measures ANOVA. Besides, pcupping therapy group, mean of the perineal pain intensity reduced from 37.5±6.8 before the intervention to 11.1±6.1, 6.9±4.7, and 3.8±3.6 immediately, 24 hr, and 2 weeks after the intervention, respectively. The results of study showed that the differences between the intervention and control groups were statistically significant (pcupping therapy and acupressure reduced perineal pain. Therefore, they may be considered as effective treatments for reducing pain intensity of allowing delivery.

  3. Treating pre-instrumental data as "missing" data: using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate record and imputations to reconstruct streamflow in the Missouri River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, M. W.; Lall, U.; Cook, E. R.

    2015-12-01

    Advances in paleoclimatology in the past few decades have provided opportunities to expand the temporal perspective of the hydrological and climatological variability across the world. The North American region is particularly fortunate in this respect where a relatively dense network of high resolution paleoclimate proxy records have been assembled. One such network is the annually-resolved Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a paleoclimate reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) that covers North America on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid based on tree-ring chronologies. However, the use of the LBDA to assess North American streamflow variability requires a model by which streamflow may be reconstructed. Paleoclimate reconstructions have typically used models that first seek to quantify the relationship between the paleoclimate variable and the environmental variable of interest before extrapolating the relationship back in time. In contrast, the pre-instrumental streamflow is here considered as "missing" data. A method of imputing the "missing" streamflow data, prior to the instrumental record, is applied through multiple imputation using chained equations for streamflow in the Missouri River Basin. In this method, the distribution of the instrumental streamflow and LBDA is used to estimate sets of plausible values for the "missing" streamflow data resulting in a ~600 year-long streamflow reconstruction. Past research into external climate forcings, oceanic-atmospheric variability and its teleconnections, and assessments of rare multi-centennial instrumental records demonstrate that large temporal oscillations in hydrological conditions are unlikely to be captured in most instrumental records. The reconstruction of multi-centennial records of streamflow will enable comprehensive assessments of current and future water resource infrastructure and operations under the existing scope of natural climate variability.

  4. Phil Wallace and Theoretical Physics at McGill in the 1950's: A Personal Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, John David

    2010-11-18

    In 1946 Philip (Phil) Russell Wallace joined the Mathematics Department of McGill University as an Associate Professor of Applied Mathematics, apparently because A. H. S. Gillson, Dean of Arts and Science, wanted theoretical physicists to be in the Mathematics Department. He came with the dream of creating a theoretical physics group at McGill. By the spring of 1949, Phil was authorized to recruit two junior faculty in Mathematics. He hired Theodore (Ted) F. Morris from U. Toronto, who joined in September 1949, and me, who came in January 1950. The group had begun. Phil Wallace was born in Toronto in 1915 and grew up there. He entered the University of Toronto in 1933, earned a B.A. in mathematics in 1937, a M.A. in 1938, and a Ph.D. in applied mathematics in 1940 under Leopold Infeld. His Ph.D. thesis in general relativity was entitled 'On the relativistic equations of motion in electromagnetic theory.' In 1940 World War II had engulfed Europe and was having its effect on Canada, but the US was still at peace. L. J. Synge, Head of the Applied Mathematics Department at Toronto, told Wallace that people such as he would be needed in war work, but things were not ready quite yet. Hold yourself ready. Phil took a two-year position as lecturer in mathematics at the University of Cincinnati (1940-42); in the fall of 1942 he became a lecturer in mathematics at M.I.T. It was from there that he was recruited by Synge to join the war effort from 1943 to 1946 at N.R.C.'s Montreal Laboratory, the genesis of the Canadian Atomic Energy Project. Phil has described those heady wartime years in these pages. Much of the effort of the theoretical physicists was on nuclear reactor theory and the properties of relevant materials, such as graphite, under long and intense neutron bombardment. In late 1945 Phil was sent for four months to Bristol to learn about the properties of graphite from the esteemed N. F. Mott. This exposure led Phil to a life-long interest in

  5. Paleoclimate cycles and tectonic controls on fluvial, lacustrine, and eolian strata in upper Triassic Chinle Formation, San Juan basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubiel, R.F. (Geological Survey, Denver, CO (USA))

    1989-09-01

    Sedimentologic study of the Upper Triassic Chinle Formation in the San Juan basin (SJB) indicates that Late Triassic paleoclimate and tectonic movements influenced the distribution of continental lithofacies. The Shinarump, Monitor Butte, and Petrified Forest Members in the lower part of the Chinle consist of complexly interfingered fluvial, floodplain, marsh, and lacustrine rocks; the Owl Rock and Rock Point Members in the upper part consists of lacustrine-basin and eolian sandsheet strata. Facies analysis, vertebrate and invertebrate paleontology, and paleoclimate models demonstrate that the Late Triassic was dominated by tropical monsoonal circulation, which provided abundant precipitation interspersed with seasonally dry periods. Owl Rock lacustrine strata comprise laminated limestones that reflect seasonal monsoonal precipitation and larger scale, interbedded carbonates and fine-grained clastics that represent longer term, alternating wet and dry climatic cycles. Overlying Rock Point eolian sand-sheet and dune deposits indicate persistent alternating but drier climatic cyclicity. Within the Chinle, upward succession of lacustrine, alternating lacustrine/eolian sand-sheet, and eolian sand-sheet/dune deposits reflects an overall decrease in precipitation due to the northward migration of Pangaea out of low latitudes dominated by monsoonal circulation.

  6. Two Decades of Funded Research Goals and Achievements on Inquiry by the High Ability and Inquiry Research Group (HAIR) at McGill University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gube, Maren; Shore, Bruce M.

    2018-01-01

    From the 1990s until 2017 the High Ability and Inquiry Research Group (HAIR) at McGill University in Montreal, received C$1.3M in research funds from Canadian, Quebec, and US agencies to support its research and graduate training in education and educational psychology. Their research encompassed two principal areas, Inquiry in Education and…

  7. Carbon, hydrogen oxygen isotope studies on imbedded old tree ring and paleoclimate reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Yanrong; Mu Zhiguo; Cui Haiting

    2002-01-01

    Tree ring is a kind of natural archives, on which the isotopic analysis is important to study global climate and environmental change. The authors mainly provide a comprehensive introduction to the fractionation models of carbon, hydrogen and oxygen isotope in plants, their research technique and the extract methods from cellulose. That results show isotopic tracer can record the message of climatic variation and has become a powerful tool for paleoclimate reconstruction and for the modern environment changing research. Especially studying on PAGES. the cellulose isotopic analyses of imbedded old tree ring have become the mainly quantitative means of environmental evolvement. In addition, China is a typical monsoon country, research in tree ring stable isotope seasonal variation can give a lot of important information on that. Up to now, the research techniques and works on tree ring in China are still in its earlier stage, and remain many limitations. It needs further accumulate basic research materials, intensity regional contrast and intercross studies on relative subjects

  8. Paleoclimate records at high latitude in Arctic during the Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salpin, Marie; Schnyder, Johann; Baudin, François; Suan, Guillaume; Labrousse, Loïc; Popescu, Speranta; Suc, Jean-Pierre

    2015-04-01

    Paleoclimate records at high latitude in Arctic during the Paleogene SALPIN Marie1,2, SCHNYDER Johann1,2, BAUDIN François1,2, SUAN Guillaume3, LABROUSSE Loïc1,2, POPESCU Speranta4, SUC Jean-Pierre1,4 1: Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, UMR 7193, Institut des Sciences de la Terre Paris (iSTeP), F 75005, Paris, France 2: CNRS, UMR 7193, Institut des Sciences de la Terre Paris (iSTeP), F 75005 Paris, France 3: UCB Lyon 1, UMR 5276, LGLTPE, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex, France 4: GEOBIOSTRATDATA.CONSULTING, 385 Route du Mas Rillier 69140 Rillieux la Pape, France The Paleogene is a period of important variations of the Earth climate system either in warming or cooling. The climatic optima of the Paleogene have been recognized both in continental and marine environment. This study focus on high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, in the Arctic Basin. The basin has had an influence on the Cenozoic global climate change according to its polar position. Is there a specific behaviour of the Arctic Basin with respect to global climatic stimuli? Are there possible mechanisms of coupling/decoupling of its dynamics with respect to the global ocean? To answer these questions a unique collection of sedimentary series of Paleogene age interval has been assembled from the Laurentian margin in Northern Yukon (Canada) and from the Siberian margin (New Siberian Islands). Selected continental successions of Paleocene-Eocene age were used to study the response of the Arctic system to known global events, e.g. the climatic optima of the Paleogene (the so-called PETM, ETM2 or the Azolla events). Two sections of Paleocene-Eocene age were sampled near the Mackenzie delta, the so-called Coal Mine (CoMi) and Caribou Hills (CaH) sections. The aim of the study is to precise the climatic fluctuations and to characterise the source rock potential of the basin, eventually linked to the warming events. This study is based on data of multi-proxy analyses: mineralogy on bulk and clay

  9. Constraining Lipid Biomarker Paleoclimate Proxies in a Small Arctic Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dion-Kirschner, H.; McFarlin, J. M.; Axford, Y.; Osburn, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Arctic amplification of climate change renders high-latitude environments unusually sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (Serreze and Barry, 2011). Lipid biomarkers, and their hydrogen and carbon isotopic compositions, can yield valuable paleoclimatic and paleoecological information. However, many variables affect the production and preservation of lipids and their constituent isotopes, including precipitation, plant growth conditions, biosynthesis mechanisms, and sediment depositional processes (Sachse et al., 2012). These variables are particularly poorly constrained for high-latitude environments, where trees are sparse or not present, and plants grow under continuous summer light and cool temperatures during a short growing season. Here we present a source-to-sink study of a single watershed from the Kangerlussuaq region of southwest Greenland. Our analytes from in and around `Little Sugarloaf Lake' (LSL) include terrestrial and aquatic plants, plankton, modern lake water, surface sediments, and a sediment core. This diverse sample set allows us to fulfill three goals: 1) We evaluate the production of lipids and isotopic signatures in the modern watershed in comparison to modern climate. Our data exhibit genus-level trends in leaf wax production and isotopic composition, and help clarify the difference between terrestrial and aquatic signals. 2) We evaluate the surface sediment of LSL to determine how lipid biomarkers from the watershed are incorporated into sediments. We constrain the relative contributions of terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, and other aquatic organisms to the sediment in this watershed. 3) We apply this modern source-to-sink calibration to the analysis of a 65 cm sediment core record. Our core is organic-rich, and relatively high deposition rates allow us to reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes with high resolution. Our work will help determine the veracity of these common paleoclimate proxies, specifically for research in

  10. Paleoclimate Reconstruction during the 17th to 18th Century Using Fossil Coral Tsunami Boulders from Ishigaki Island, the Ryukyus, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuzuki, K.; Yokoyama, Y.; Seki, A.; Kawakubo, Y.; Araoka, D.; Suzuki, A.

    2014-12-01

    Little Ice Age (LIA) which lasted during approximately 1450 to 1850 (e.g. Grove, 1988) is known as naturally occurring climate fluctuation, so knowing LIA in detail is necessary to improve climate models. Instrumental records can only extend back to about 100 years in many areas, thus paleoclimate records are reconstructed using proxies in tree rings, sediments and so force. However there are differences in reconstructed timings and magnitudes of LIA occurred in each area (Overpack et al., 1997), and most of the records are based mainly on terrestrial proxies such as tree ring records, whereas only limited numbers of marine records are available (Mann et al., 2008). Coral skeletal climatology is a useful tool to reconstruct marine paleoclimate records in tropics and subtropics. Hermatypic corals, Porites spp. have aragonite skeletons and they have annual bands, which are suitable to reconstruct high-resolution paleoclimate in seasonal scale by measuring chemical compositions. Skeletal Sr/Ca ratio in Porites spp. has been widely used as a reliable proxy of SST (Sea Surface Temperature). However, corals grow for approximately several decades to 200 years, hence it is difficult to reconstruct LIA paleoclimate using living corals. Cobb et al. (2003) used fossil corals casted on shore by storms to reconstruct millennial scale paleoclimate. There are fossil coral boulders in the eastern coast of Ishigaki Island, Ryukyus, Japan. These fossil coral boulders were casted on shore by paleo Tsunami events, thus they are called "Tsunami boulders" (Araoka et al., 2010). Fossil corals used by Cobb et al. have 30-90-year records while some large Tsunami boulders have multi-centennial continuous records. In this study, we reconstruct paleo SST using the Tsunami boulder from Ishigaki Island. The boulder has 185 years of annual banding. U-series dating shows the boulder was moved on shore at Meiwa earthquake in 1771. We measure Sr/Ca ratio using LA-HR-ICPMS (Laser Ablation High

  11. [Climate implications of terrestrial paleoclimate]. Quaternary Sciences Center, Desert Research Institute annual report, fiscal year 1994/1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigand, P.E.

    1995-01-01

    The objective of this study is to collect terrestrial climate indicators for paleoclimate synthesis. The paleobiotic and geomorphic records are being examined for the local and regional impact of past climates to assess Yucca Mountain's suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. In particular these data are being used to provide estimates of the timing, duration and extremes of past periods of moister climate for use in hydrological models of local and regional recharge that are being formulated by USGS and other hydrologists for the Yucca Mountain area. The project includes botanical, faunal, and geomorphic components that will be integrated to accomplish this goal. To this end personnel at the Quaternary Sciences Center of the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada are conducting the following activities: Analyses of packrat middens; Analysis of pollen samples; and Determination of vegetation climate relationships

  12. Ocean-atmosphere forcing of South American tropical paleoclimate, LGM to present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Dwyer, G. S.; Rigsby, C. A.; Silva, C. G.; Burns, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Because of many recent terrestrial paleoclimatic and marine paleoceanographic records, late Quaternary South American tropical paleoclimate is as well understood as that anywhere in the world. While lessons learned from the recent instrumental record of climate are informative, this record is too short to capture much of the lower frequency variability encountered in the paleoclimate records and much of the observed paleoclimate is without modern analogue. This paleoclimate is known to be regionally variable with significant differences both north and south of the equator and between the western high Andes and eastern lowlands of the Amazon and Nordeste Brazil. Various extrinsic forcing mechanisms affected climate throughout the period, including global concentrations of GHGs, Northern Hemisphere ice sheet forcing, seasonal insolation forcing of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), millennial-scale Atlantic forcing, and Pacific forcing of the large-scale Walker circulation. The magnitude of the climate response to these forcings varied temporally, largely because of the varying amplitude of the forcing itself. For example, during the last glacial, large-amplitude north Atlantic forcing during Heinrich 1 and the LGM itself, led to wet (dry) conditions south (north) of the equator. During the Holocene, Atlantic forcing was lower amplitude, thus seasonal insolation forcing generally predominated with a weaker-than-normal SASM during the early Holocene resulting in dry conditions in the south-western tropics and wet conditions in the eastern lowlands and Nordeste; in the late Holocene seasonal insolation reached a maximum in the southern tropics and climate conditions reversed.

  13. Content validation of a Danish version of "The McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment" for dysphagia management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Tina; Lambert, Heather C; Faber, Jens

    2011-12-01

    This study addresses the first steps in the cross-cultural adaptation of a Danish version of the McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment (MISA), which quantifies eating and drinking abilities by scoring a meal observation. The original Canadian MISA was translated and adapted into Danish (MISA-DK). For content validation of the MISA-DK, a judgemental quantification process was applied using 13 experts. Thereafter, the MISA-DK was pilot tested by 16 occupational therapists. Finally, the MISA-DK was linked to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Content validity of 43 items was found for 93% in terms of adequacy, 67% in terms of clarity of item description, 86% in terms of clarity of score descriptions, and 93% in terms of relevance. Thirteen of 14 sections of the instruction manual and score sheet were content valid. In light of these results, a revised MISA-DK was produced for the pilot test, which then found content validity for all sections and 98% of the items. The ICF linking resulted in 41 ICF-categories, which may reflect the complexity of eating and drinking as well as a multidimensional structure of the MISA-DK. In conclusion, the MISA-DK is prepared for psychometric testing using classical as well as modern test theory.

  14. The Power of Cooperation in International Paleoclimate Science: Examples from the PAGES 2k Network and the Ocean2k Working Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    The Past Global Changes (PAGES) project of IGBP and Future Earth supports research to understand the Earth's past environment to improve future climate predictions and inform strategies for sustainability. Within this framework, the PAGES 2k Network was established to provide a focus on the past 2000 years, a period that encompasses Medieval Climate Anomaly warming, Little Ice Age cooling, and recent anthropogenically-forced climate change. The results of these studies are used for testing earth system models, and for understanding decadal- to centennial-scale variability, which is needed for long-term planning. International coordination and cooperation among the nine regional Working Groups that make up the 2k Network has been critical to the success of PAGES 2k. The collaborative approach is moving toward scientific achievements across the regional groups, including: (i) the development of a community-driven open-access proxy climate database; (ii) integration of multi-resolution proxy records; (iii) development of multivariate climate reconstructions; and (iv) a leap forward in the spatial resolution of paleoclimate reconstructions. The last addition to the 2k Network, the Ocean2k Working Group has further innovated the collaborative approach by: (1) creating an open, receptive environment to discuss ideas exclusively in the virtual space; (2) employing an array of real-time collaborative software tools to enable communication, group document writing, and data analysis; (3) consolidating executive leadership teams to oversee project development and manage grassroots-style volunteer pools; and (4) embracing the value-added role that international and interdisciplinary science can play in advancing paleoclimate hypotheses critical to understanding future change. Ongoing efforts for the PAGES 2k Network are focused on developing new standards for data quality control and archiving. These tasks will provide the foundation for new and continuing "trans-regional" 2k

  15. Paleoclimate Signals and Age Distributions from 41 Public Water Works in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broers, H. P.; Weert, J. D.; Sültenfuß, J.; Aeschbach, W.; Vonhof, H.; Casteleijns, J.

    2015-12-01

    Knowing the age distribution of water abstracted from public water supply wells is of prime importance to ensure customer trust and to underpin predictions of water quality evolution in time. Especially, age distributions enable the assessment of the vulnerability of well fields, both in relation to surface sources of contamination as in relation to subsurface sources, such as possibly related to shale gas extraction. We sampled the raw water of 41 large public supply well fields which represents a mixture of groundwaters and used the a discrete travel time distribution model (DTTDM, Visser et al. 2013, WRR) in order to quantify the age distribution of the mixture. Measurements included major ion chemistry, 3H, 3He, 4He, 18O, 2H, 14C, 13CDIC and 13CCH4 and the full range of noble gases. The heavier noble gases enable the calculation of the Noble Gas Temperature (NGT) which characterizes the temperature of past recharge conditions. The 14C apparent age of each mixture was derived correcting for dead carbon sources. The DTTDM used the 3H and 4He concentrations, the 14C apparent age and the NGT as the four distinctive tracers to estimate the age distributions. Especially 4He and NGT provide extra information on the older part of the age distributions and showed that the 14C apparent ages are often the result of mixing of waters ranging between 2.000 and 35.000 years old, instead of being discrete ages with a limited .variance as sometimes assumed.The results show a large range of age distributions, comprising vulnerable well fields with >60% young water (85% very old groundwater (> 25 kyrs) and all forms of TTD's in between. The age distributions are well in correspondence with the hydrogeological setting of the well fields; all well fields with an age distribution skewed towards older ages are in the Roer Valley Graben structure, where fluvial and marine aquitards provide protection from recent recharge. Especially waters from this graben structure exhibit clear

  16. A Record of Holocene Paleoclimate Evolution from Robertson Bay, Victoria Land, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riesselman, C. R.; Truax, O.; Wilson, G. S.; Parker, R. L.; Yoo, K. C.; Lee, J. I.; Levy, R. H.; Mckay, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Regionally representative records of how Antarctica responded to the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum into the Holocene are an essential component of understanding the processes by which the Antarctic cryosphere responds to a changing climate. Here, we present a high-resolution record of Holocene Antarctic paleoclimate evolution from a previously unstudied section of the Victoria Land margin. In 2015 the Korea Polar Research Institute collected a 571 cm sediment core, GC57, from Robertson Bay, a protected embayment west of Cape Adare and adjacent to the outlet glaciers of the Transantarctic Mountains. Using diatom assemblages, bulk sediment geochemistry, and the magnetic properties of GC57, we aim to reconstruct the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to warming associated with deglaciation and the Holocene climatic optima at the interface between the Ross Sea and the Southern Ocean. Our multiproxy approach allows us to study sea ice extent, seasonality, ocean stratification and circulation, and primary productivity from the mid-Holocene (7,400 14C year BP) to the present. A sea-ice associated diatom assemblage indicative of summer sea surface temperatures below 0˚C dominates the basal section of GC57. Although diatoms are well preserved, the unit is characterized by low wt% biogenic silica (average 9%) and a high concentration of magnetic minerals, indicating that biogenic production persisted despite substantial terrigenous input into the bay. A rapid transition at 4708 14C yr BP is identified by a steep increase in wt% BSi (average 13%), a decrease in magnetic minerals, and a subtle assemblage change towards sea-ice associated diatoms with slightly warmer temperature tolerances. The novel ramped pyrolosis 14C dating methodology allows us to date the carbon fixed concurrent with deposition and generate a robust age model for GC57 with an accuracy previously difficult to achieve given the uncertainties associated with dating bulk acid insoluble

  17. The McGill Interactive Pediatric OncoGenetic Guidelines: An approach to identifying pediatric oncology patients most likely to benefit from a genetic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudie, Catherine; Coltin, Hallie; Witkowski, Leora; Mourad, Stephanie; Malkin, David; Foulkes, William D

    2017-08-01

    Identifying cancer predisposition syndromes in children with tumors is crucial, yet few clinical guidelines exist to identify children at high risk of having germline mutations. The McGill Interactive Pediatric OncoGenetic Guidelines project aims to create a validated pediatric guideline in the form of a smartphone/tablet application using algorithms to process clinical data and help determine whether to refer a child for genetic assessment. This paper discusses the initial stages of the project, focusing on its overall structure, the methodology underpinning the algorithms, and the upcoming algorithm validation process. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2015-04-01

    It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

  19. The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

    2014-11-01

    Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

  20. Paleoclimate Reconstruction of Guangxi in SW China during the Past 2000-Year: Stalagmite Records from Two Caves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W. Y.; Li, H. C.; Mii, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Paleoclimate reconstructions help us to understand the role of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) on local precipitation and controlling factor of EASM variability, and to improve our climatic prediction. This study presents two stalagmite records from Jinlun Cave (23.553oN, 108.265oE) and Yilingyan Cave (23.041oN, 108.297oE) which are only 60 km apart in Guangxi Province, China. The 35-cm long stalagmite JL12 from Jinlun Cave and 10-cm long stalagmite YLY12 from Yilingyan Cave reveal 1500-year and 2000-year continuous growth respectively based on AMS 14C dating. Data points of the AMS 14C dates with the least dead carbon fraction (DCF) are used to build up the age model. Although dead carbons influence the 14C dating results, it is a feasible dating method for the stalagmites as 230Th/U dating on both stalagmites was not successful due to low U contents. A total of 1586 samples from JL12 and 948 samples from YLY12 have been done for stable isotopes analyses to serve as paleoclimate proxies. Comparison of the d18O records with the local rainfall records and the dry-wetness historic records shows the stalagmite d18O records as a rainfall proxy. The JL12 d18O record resembles the YLY12 d18O record in general, though some differences exist, which confirms the d18O records representing the local climate. The relatively lighter (lower) d18O values of the JL12 and YLY12 records during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, AD900-1200) indicate stronger EASM. In the first phase of Little Ice Age (LIA), from AD1300 to AD1560, the d18O fluctuate drastically and the average during this period was lower, while the d18O was higher in the second phase of Little Ice Age (AD1560-AD1760), exhibiting a drier and stable climate in the second phase. Furthermore, the DCF varies through the stalagmite records, ascending during the LIA, descending during the MWP, which informs dry condition during the LIA and a moist climate in the MWP. Spectral analysis of the high-resolution d18O records

  1. Sources of Holocene variability of oxygen isotopes in paleoclimate archives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. LeGrande

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Variability in water isotopes has been captured in numerous archives and used to infer past climate changes. Here we examine water isotope variability over the course of the Holocene using the water-isotope enabled, coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, GISS ModelE-R. Eight Holocene time slices, ~1000 years apart are simulated and driven by estimated changes in orbital configuration, greenhouse gases, and ice sheet extent. We find that simulated water isotope archives match well with those seen in ice cores, ocean sediment cores, and speleothems. The climate changes associated with the water isotope changes, however, are more complex than simple modern spatial slope interpretations might suggest. In particular, water isotope variability in Asian speleothems is linked to alterations in landward water vapor transport, not local precipitation, and ice sheet changes over North America lead to the masking of temperature signals in Summit, Greenland. Salinity-seawater isotope variability is complicated by inter-ocean basin exchanges of water vapor. Water isotopes do reflect variability in the hydrology, but are better interpreted in terms of regional hydrological cycle changes rather than as indicators of local climate.

  2. Effects of McGill stabilization exercises and conventional physiotherapy on pain, functional disability and active back range of motion in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbanpour, Arsalan; Azghani, Mahmoud Reza; Taghipour, Mohammad; Salahzadeh, Zahra; Ghaderi, Fariba; Oskouei, Ali E

    2018-04-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to compare the effects of "McGill stabilization exercises" and "conventional physiotherapy" on pain, functional disability and active back flexion and extension range of motion in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain. [Subjects and Methods] Thirty four patients with chronic non-specific low back pain were randomly assigned to McGill stabilization exercises group (n=17) and conventional physiotherapy group (n=17). In both groups, patients performed the corresponding exercises for six weeks. The visual analog scale (VAS), Quebec Low Back Pain Disability Scale Questionnaire and inclinometer were used to measure pain, functional disability, and active back flexion and extension range of motion, respectively. [Results] Statistically significant improvements were observed in pain, functional disability, and active back extension range of motion in McGill stabilization exercises group. However, active back flexion range of motion was the only clinical symptom that statistically increased in patients who performed conventional physiotherapy. There was no significant difference between the clinical characteristics while compared these two groups of patients. [Conclusion] The results of this study indicated that McGill stabilization exercises and conventional physiotherapy provided approximately similar improvement in pain, functional disability, and active back range of motion in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain. However, it appears that McGill stabilization exercises provide an additional benefit to patients with chronic non-specific low back, especially in pain and functional disability improvement.

  3. Patterns and timing of loess-paleosol transitions in Eurasia: Constraints for paleoclimate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeeden, Christian; Hambach, Ulrich; Obreht, Igor; Hao, Qingzhen; Abels, Hemmo A.; Veres, Daniel; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Marković, Slobodan B.

    2018-03-01

    Loess-paleosol sequences are the most extensive terrestrial paleoclimate records in Europe and Asia documenting atmospheric circulation patterns, vegetation, and sedimentary dynamics in response to glacial-interglacial cyclicity. Between the two sides of the Eurasian continent, differences may exist in response and response times to glacial changes and finding these is essential to understand the climate systems of the northern hemisphere. Therefore, assessment of common patterns and regional differences in loess-paleosol sequences (LPS) is vital, but remains, however, uncertain. Another key to interpret these records is to constrain the mechanisms responsible for the formation and preservation of paleosols and loess layers in these paleoclimate archives. This study therefore compares LPS magnetic susceptibility records as proxies for paleosol formation intensity for selected sites from the central Chinese Loess Plateau and the Carpathian Basin in Europe over the last 440 kyr. Inconsistencies and crucial issues concerning the timing, correlation and paleoclimate potential of selected Eurasian LPS are outlined. Our comparison of Eurasian LPS shows generally similar patterns of paleosol formation, while highlighting several crucial differences. Especially for paleosols developed around 200 and 300 ka, the reported timing of soil formation differs by up to 30 ka. In addition, a drying and cooling trend over the last 300 ka has been documented in Europe, with no such evidence in the Asian records. The comparison shows that there is still uncertainty in defining the chronostratigraphic framework for these records on glacial-interglacial time scales in the order of 5-30 kyr for the last 440 ka. We argue that the baseline of the magnetic susceptibility proxy in loess from the Carpathian Basin is the most striking difference between European LPS and the Chinese Loess Plateau. In our opinion, many of the current timing/age differences may be overcome once a comparable

  4. Nd isotope constraints on ocean circulation, paleoclimate, and continental drainage during the Jurassic breakup of Pangea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dera, Guillaume; Prunier, Jonathan; Smith, Paul L.

    2015-01-01

    , western Russia, and North America. Combined with an extensive compilation of published εNd(t) data, our results show that the continental sources of Nd were very heterogeneous across the world. Volcanic inputs from a Jurassic equivalent of the modern Pacific Ring of Fire contributed to radiogenic ε......-Tethyan, and western Russian waters varied quite similarly through time, in response to regional changes in oceanic circulation, paleoclimate, continental drainage, and volcanism. Three positive shifts in εNd(t) values occurred successively in these epicontinental seas during the Pliensbachian, in the Aalenian...

  5. Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2014-12-01

    Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

  6. Objectively combining AR5 instrumental period and paleoclimate climate sensitivity evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Nicholas; Grünwald, Peter

    2018-03-01

    Combining instrumental period evidence regarding equilibrium climate sensitivity with largely independent paleoclimate proxy evidence should enable a more constrained sensitivity estimate to be obtained. Previous, subjective Bayesian approaches involved selection of a prior probability distribution reflecting the investigators' beliefs about climate sensitivity. Here a recently developed approach employing two different statistical methods—objective Bayesian and frequentist likelihood-ratio—is used to combine instrumental period and paleoclimate evidence based on data presented and assessments made in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Probabilistic estimates from each source of evidence are represented by posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of physically-appropriate form that can be uniquely factored into a likelihood function and a noninformative prior distribution. The three-parameter form is shown accurately to fit a wide range of estimated climate sensitivity PDFs. The likelihood functions relating to the probabilistic estimates from the two sources are multiplicatively combined and a prior is derived that is noninformative for inference from the combined evidence. A posterior PDF that incorporates the evidence from both sources is produced using a single-step approach, which avoids the order-dependency that would arise if Bayesian updating were used. Results are compared with an alternative approach using the frequentist signed root likelihood ratio method. Results from these two methods are effectively identical, and provide a 5-95% range for climate sensitivity of 1.1-4.05 K (median 1.87 K).

  7. The sedimentary record and petrophysical logs from the Spanish Central Pyrenees: Implications for paleoclimate change in the Early Devonian

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Slavík, Ladislav; Valenzuela-Ríos, J. I.; Hladil, Jindřich; Chadimová, Leona; Liao, J-Ch.; Hušková, Aneta; Calvo, H.; Hrstka, Tomáš

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 21, - (2015), s. 350-350 ISSN 1608-8166. [International Congress on Stratigraphy /2./. STRATI 2015. 19.07.2015-23.07.2015, Graz] Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : stratigraphy * Early Devonian * sedimentary record * paleoclimate change * Spanish Central Pyrenees Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy http://www.zobodat.at/pdf/Ber-Inst-Erdwiss-Univ-Graz_21_0001-0437.pdf

  8. Estudo comparativo de simulações paleoclimáticas na região do Atlântico Sul Comparison of paleoclimatics simulation in the South Atlantic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Oliveira

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Neste estudo são comparadas diferentes simulações de modelos paleoclimáticos para duas épocas distintas, o Último Máximo Glacial (UMG e o Presente. Esta comparação visa elucidar as principais diferenças nos processos físicos e dinâmicos do sistema oceano-atmosfera na região do oceano Atlântico Sul entre estes dois períodos. Foram analisadas as variações na climatologia anual entre estas épocas para os seguintes parâmetros: temperatura do ar (TA, precipitação (PPT e pressão ao nível do mar (PNM. As simulações numéricas analisadas são do projeto PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project e do modelo numérico acoplado NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM (Comunnity Climate System Model versão 1.4 nos dois períodos de interesse. Os resultados mostram uma intensificação do presente em relação ao UMG em todas as variáveis analisadas. As diferentes simulações atmosféricas do PMIP apresentaram padrões consistentes com os apresentados no modelo NCAR CCSM, sendo observados baixos valores de EQM (Erro Quadrático Médio para grande parte da região de estudo.The present work presents a comparison between the results of different paleoclimate simulations models for two periods, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and the Present day. This comparison intents to elucidate the overall differences of the physical and dynamical processes from ocean-atmosphere system for these two climates. We analyzed the variations in the annual climatology between the LGM and Present for the following variables: air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure. We used the results of the PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project and the numerical coupled model developed at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM (Comunnity Climate System Model for the two periods of interest. The results show an intensification of the present in relation to the LGM in all variables. The different atmospheric

  9. Uranium distribution in Baikal sediments using SSNTD method for paleoclimate reconstruction

    CERN Document Server

    Zhmodik, S M; Nemirovskaya, N A; Zhatnuev, N S

    1999-01-01

    First data on local distribution of uranium in the core of Lake Baikal floor sediments (Academician ridge, VER-95-2, St 3 BC, 53 deg. 113'12'N/108 deg. 25'01'E) are presented in this paper. They have been obtained using (n,f)-radiography. Various forms of U-occurrence in floor sediments are shown, i.e. evenly disseminated, associated with clayey and diatomaceous components; micro- and macroinclusions of uranium bearing minerals - microlocations with uranium content 10-50 times higher than U-concentrations associated with clayey and diatomaceous components. Relative and absolute U-concentration can be determined for every mineral. Signs of various order periodicity of U-distribution in the core of Lake Baikal floor sediments have been found. Using (n,f)-radiography method of the study of Baikal floor sediment permits gathering of new information that can be used at paleoclimate reconstruction.

  10. Recent eolian activity and paleoclimate fluctuations in the Ferris Lost Soldier Area, South-Central Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaylord, D. R.

    1983-09-01

    The Ferris Dune Fields were examined. Sand dunes are especially valuable in paleoclimate reconstructions because they: (1) bury and preserve datable materials and artifacts; (2) respond to even subtle changes in wind velocity and direction as reflected both in external morphology and internal structures; and (3) remain unconsolidated, making them amenable to easy textural and compositional examination. The valley of Clear Creek in the Ferris Dunes reveals a relatively continuous Holocene section of interbedded dune and interdunal pond deposits. Radiocarbon dates from the interdunal pond strata at Clear Creek, theoretical sand dune migration rates, compositional analysis of periglacial sand wedges, and relative dating of actively migrating parabolic dunes reveals a general sequence of geologic-climatic events that affected the Ferris-Lost Soldier area. The most recent major reactivaton of dunes occurred approximately 290 years ago.

  11. A national perspective on paleoclimate streamflow and water storage infrastructure in the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Michelle; Lall, Upmanu; Sun, Xun; Cook, Edward

    2017-04-01

    Large-scale water storage infrastructure in the Conterminous United States (CONUS) provides a means of regulating the temporal variability in water supply with storage capacities ranging from seasonal storage in the wetter east to multi-annual and decadal-scale storage in the drier west. Regional differences in water availability across the CONUS provides opportunities for optimizing water dependent economic activities, such as food and energy production, through storage and transportation. However, the ability to sufficiently regulate water supplies into the future is compromised by inadequate monitoring of non-federally-owned dams that make up around 97% of all dams. Furthermore, many of these dams are reaching or have exceeded their economic design life. Understanding the role of dams in the current and future landscape of water requirements in the CONUS is needed to prioritize dam safety remediation or identify where redundant dams may be removed. A national water assessment and planning process is needed for addressing water requirements, accounting for regional differences in water supply and demand, and the role of dams in such a landscape. Most dams in the CONUS were designed without knowledge of devastating floods and prolonged droughts detected in multi-centennial paleoclimate records, consideration of projected climate change, nor consideration of optimal operation across large-scale regions. As a step towards informing water supply across the CONUS we present a paleoclimate reconstruction of annual streamflow across the CONUS over the past 555 years using a spatially and temporally complete paleoclimate record of summer drought across the CONUS targeting a set of US Geological Survey streamflow sites. The spatial and temporal structures of national streamflow variability are analyzed using hierarchical clustering, principal component analysis, and wavelet analyses. The reconstructions show signals of contemporary droughts such as the Dust Bowl (1930s

  12. Paleoclimate from fossil plants and application to the early Cenozoic Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, S. L.

    2011-12-01

    Wladimir Köppen called vegetation "crystallized, visible climate," and his metaphor encouraged paleobotanists to climb the chain of inference from fossil plants to paleovegetation to paleoclimate. Inferring paleovegetation from fossils has turned out to be very difficult, however, and today most paleobotanical methods for inferring paleoclimate do not try to reconstruct paleovegetation as a first step. Three major approaches are widely use to infer paleoclimate from plant fossils: 1) phylogenetic inferences rely on the climatic distributions of extant relatives of fossils, 2) morphological inferences use present-day correlations of climate with plant morphology (e.g, leaf shape, wood anatomy), and 3) chemical inferences rely on correlations between climate and the stable isotopic composition of plants or organic compounds. Each approach makes assumptions that are hard to verify. Phylogenetic inference depends on accurate identification of fossils, and also assumes that evolution and/or extinction has not shifted the climatic distributions of plant lineages through time. On average this assumption is less valid for older time periods, but probably it is not radically wrong for the early Cenozoic. Morphological approaches don't require taxonomic identification of plant fossils, but do assume that correlations between plant form and climate have been constant over time. This assumption is bolstered if the ecophysiological cause of the morphology-climate correlation is well understood, but often it isn't. Stable isotopic approaches assume that present-day correlations between isotopic composition and climate apply to the past. Commonly the chemical and physiological mechanisms responsible for the correlation are moderately well known, but often the variation among different taxonomic and functional groups of plants is poorly characterized. In spite of limitations and uncertainties on all methods for inferring paleoclimate from fossil plants, broad patterns emerge from

  13. Fire, Ice and Water: Glaciologic, Paleoclimate and Anthropogenic Linkages During Past Mega-Droughts in the Uinta Mountains, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M. J.; Rupper, S.; Codding, B.; Schaefer, J.; Hess, M.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine glaciers provide a valuable water source during prolonged drought events. We explore whether long-term climate dynamics and associated glacier changes within mountain drainage basins and adjacent landscapes ultimately influence how prehistoric human populations choose settlement locations. The Uinta Mountains of Utah, with a steep present-day precipitation gradient from the lowlands to the alpine zone of 20-100 cm per year, has a rich glacial history related to natural and anthropogenic climate variability. Here we examine how past climate variability has impacted glaciers and ultimately the availability of water over long timescales, and how these changes affected human settlement and subsistence decisions. Through a combination of geomorphologic evidence, paleoclimate proxies, and glacier and climate modelling, we test the hypothesis that glacier-charged hydrologic systems buffer prehistoric populations during extreme drought periods, facilitating long-term landscape management with fire. Initial field surveys suggest middle- and low-elevation glacial valleys contain glacially-derived sediment from meltwater and resulted in terraced river channels and outwash plains visible today. These terraces provide estimates of river discharge during varying stages of glacier advance and retreat. Archaeological evidence from middle- and high-elevations in the Uinta Mountains suggests human populations persisted through periods of dramatic climate change, possibly linked to the persistence of glacially-derived water resources through drought periods. Paleoenvironmental records indicate a long history of fire driven by the combined interaction of climatic variation and human disturbance. This research highlights the important role of moisture variability determining human settlement patterns and landscape management throughout time, and has direct relevance to the impacts of anthropogenic precipitation and glacier changes on vulnerable populations in the coming century

  14. Pain in workers with shoulder impingement syndrome: an assessment using the DASH and McGill pain questionnaires Dor em trabalhadores portadores da síndrome do impacto do ombro: uma avaliação através dos questionários DASH e McGill de dor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PR Camargo

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: This study assessed physical function and pain in male and female workers with shoulder impingement syndrome using the Brazilian Portuguese versions of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH and McGill pain questionnaires. METHODS: Twenty-seven assembly line workers (18 men and 9 women; mean age of 33.26 ± 6.49 years in the school supply industry were evaluated. The duration of the shoulder impingement pain was 31.74 ± 32.92 months and the amount of time of the workers in this industry was 11.08 ± 6.41 years. The DASH questionnaire was used to evaluate functional status and symptoms of the upper limbs of the workers. Using the McGill Pain Questionnaire, the pain was quantified by the number of words chosen and by the pain rating index (PRI. RESULTS: The women presented higher scores (POBJETIVO: Este estudo avaliou função física e dor em trabalhadores com síndrome do impacto através das versões brasileiras dos questionários "Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand" (DASH e McGill de dor. MÉTODO: Vinte e sete trabalhadores (18 homens e 9 mulheres; idade média de 33,26 ± 6,49 anos de uma linha de produção de uma indústria de material escolar foram avaliados. O tempo de duração de dor no ombro era de 31,74 ± 32,92 meses e o tempo de trabalho na indústria era de 11,08 ± 6,41 anos. O questionário DASH foi utilizado para avaliar o estado funcional e os sintomas dos membros superiores dos trabalhadores. Através do questionário McGill de dor, a dor foi quantificada pelo número de palavras escolhidas e pelo índice de classificação da dor (ICD. RESULTADOS: As mulheres apresentaram maiores escores (P< 0,05 que os homens para ambos os módulos do DASH. As mulheres escolheram mais palavras (17,00 ± 2,59 que os homens (13,33 ± 3,16 e também apresentaram o maior ICD total (P< 0,05. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados obtidos neste grupo de trabalhadores brasileiros com síndrome do impacto do ombro identificam os

  15. Comparison of the Effects of Dry Cupping and Acupressure at Acupuncture Point (BL23) on the Women with Postpartum Low Back Pain (PLBP) Based on Short Form McGill Pain Questionnaires in Iran: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdanpanahi, Zahra; Ghaemmaghami, Mehrnoush; Akbarzadeh, Marzieh; Zare, Najaf; Azisi, Amir

    2017-06-01

    Objective: To evaluate the effects of acupuncture branches on postpartum low back pain severity among the primiparous subjects visiting the selected educational centers affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. Materials and methods: This clinical trial was conducted on 150 (each group of 50 people) cases in 2012. Cupping therapy was done every other day in four 15-20 minute sessions a week. Besides, acupressure was applied according to the circular model for 20 minutes. The patients filled out the short form McGill Pain Questionnaires. Then, the data were analyzed using the SPSS statistical software (v. 16) and repeated measurements and Chi-square tests. Results: In the cupping group, the mean difference of postpartum Low Back Pain intensity reached from 31.8 ± 10.8 before the intervention to 9.0 ± 6.7, 7.5 ± 6.6, and 4.1 ± 3.6 immediately, 24 hours, and 2 weeks after the intervention, respectively and the results of repeated measures ANOVA showed a significant difference between the three follow-up periods (p < 0.05). On the other hand, this measure reached from 31.1 ± 11.0 before the intervention to 22.1 ± 7.3, 16.2±6.0, and 11.7 ± 5.3 immediately, 24 hours, and 2 weeks after the intervention, respectively in the acupressure group. Conclusion: The study results showed that these modalities could sedate the pain. Therefore, they can be applied as efficient treatments for reducing the low back pain.

  16. Comparison of the Effects of Dry Cupping and Acupressure at Acupuncture Point (BL23 on the Women with Postpartum Low Back Pain (PLBP Based on Short Form McGill Pain Questionnaires in Iran: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Yazdanpanahi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the effects of acupuncture branches on postpartum low back pain severity among the primiparous subjects visiting the selected educational centers affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.Materials and methods: This clinical trial was conducted on 150 (each group of 50 people cases in 2012. Cupping therapy was done every other day in four 15-20 minute sessions a week. Besides, acupressure was applied according to the circular model for 20 minutes. The patients filled out the short form McGill Pain Questionnaires. Then, the data were analyzed using the SPSS statistical software (v. 16 and repeated measurements and Chi-square tests.Results: In the cupping group, the mean difference of postpartum Low Back Pain intensity reached from 31.8 ± 10.8 before the intervention to 9.0 ± 6.7, 7.5 ± 6.6, and 4.1 ± 3.6 immediately, 24 hours, and 2 weeks after the intervention, respectively and the results of repeated measures ANOVA showed a significant difference between the three follow-up periods (p < 0.05. On the other hand, this measure reached from 31.1 ± 11.0 before the intervention to 22.1 ± 7.3, 16.2±6.0, and 11.7 ± 5.3 immediately, 24 hours, and 2 weeks after the intervention, respectively in the acupressure group.Conclusion: The study results showed that these modalities could sedate the pain. Therefore, they can be applied as efficient treatments for reducing the low back pain. 

  17. The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jackson Davis

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4% in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP, and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 °C approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature

  18. The use of Sphagnum cellulose oxygen isotope ratios in ombrotrophic peatlands as a proxy for paleoclimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, M.; Pendall, E.; Jackson, S.; Booth, R. K.; Nichols, J. E.; Huang, Y.

    2006-12-01

    Developing proxies for discerning paleoclimate that are independent of the pollen record can provide insight into various aspects of climate variability and improve confidence in the interpretation of climate-vegetation interactions. To date, proxies including plant macrofossils, humification indices, testate amoebae, and ratios of n-alkane abundances have been used to infer past climate variability from temperate ombrotrophic peatlands in upper Midwestern North America. These proxies are used to infer past changes in surface-moisture conditions, which in ombrotrophic peatlands is primarily a function of precipitation and temperature. This study investigates the potential uses of stable oxygen isotopes to complement hydrologic proxies. δ18O of surface water and Sphagnum moss cellulose from bogs throughout North America indicates a correlation between average growing season temperatures and δ18O-values. The existence of a modern temperature signal in moss cellulose suggests that δ18O-derived records will not only complement paleohydrological records, but also help assess relative changes in precipitation and temperature. Humification and testate amoebae data from two cores taken from Minden and Irwin Smith Bogs in central and northeastern Michigan have recorded several extreme drought events during the Holocene, including one at 1000 YBP. Comparison of δ18O-values of picked Sphagnum remains to down-core humification and testate amoebae data suggest good temporal correspondence, with the δ18O-values around 1000 YBP indicating a warmer growing season.

  19. Rodent burrows in late Pleistocene paleosols at Korean Palaeolithic sites and their implications for paleoclimate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, H.; Park, S.; Lee, J.; Lee, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Rodent burrows are commonly found at many Paleolithic archaeological sites in Korea. They are nearly straight in horizontal view and gently inclined in lateral view. Burrow diameters are mostly 7 - 10cm, and burrow length may reach a few meters. Vertical penetration depths are generally about 1 m from the surface, and the thickness of the burrow-bearing layer is about 1-2 m. Although no remains (bones, teeth, claws, and coprolites) were found within burrows, they are interpreted to have been produced by rodent-like mammals (probably ground squirrels) based on the size and architecture. According to the previous study, the age of these burrows was constrained to be between ca. 40,000 and 25,000 yr BP by tephrochronology, radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating results (Lim et al., 2007). However, little is known about the reason why these burrows have disappeared after late Pleistocene time. For this question, two explanations can be considered: extinction or migration. Since same kinds of burrows are still found in the high-latitude regions, such as Mongolia and North America, the possibility of extinction can be ruled out. Therefore, migration seems to be the most likely explanation. Our results show that the destruction of habitat caused by climate change during this period is the main reason for the northward migration of burrowing animals. This study suggests that rodent burrows found in the late Pleistocene paleosols can provide useful information on paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes.

  20. Quality of life in patients with advanced cancer at the end of life as measured by the McGill quality of life questionnaire: a survey in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Fang, Fang; Shen, Fengping; Song, Lijuan; Zhou, Lingjun; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-11-01

    Quality of life (QOL) is the main outcome measure for patients with advanced cancer at the end of life. The McGill Quality of Life Questionnaire (MQOL) is designed specifically for palliative care patients and has been translated and validated in Hong Kong and Taiwan. This study aimed to investigate the QOL of patients with advanced cancer using the MQOL-Taiwan version after cultural adaptation to the Chinese mainland. A cross-sectional survey design was used. QOL data from patients with advanced cancer were gathered from 13 hospitals including five tertiary hospitals, six secondary hospitals, and community health care service centers in Shanghai and analyzed. QOL was assessed using the MQOL-Chinese version. Statistical analyses were performed using descriptive statistics, multiple regression analysis, and Spearman rank correlation analysis. A total of 531 cancer patients (297 male and 234 female) in 13 hospitals were recruited into the study and administered the MQOL-Chinese. The score of the support subscale was highest (6.82), and the score of the existential well-being subscale was the lowest (4.65). The five physical symptoms most frequently listed on the MQOL-Chinese were pain, loss of appetite, fatigue, powerless, and dyspnea. Participants' sex, educational level, number of children, disclosure of the disease, and hospital size were associated with their overall QOL. The Spearman rank correlation analysis found that Karnofsky Performance Status scores correlated with the MQOL-Chinese single-item score, physical well-being, psychological well-being, existential well-being, and support domains (P patients with advanced cancer. The association between the characteristics of patients, Karnofsky Performance Status, and their QOL also was identified. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Development, validation, and factorial comparison of the McGill Self-Efficacy of Learners For Inquiry Engagement (McSELFIE) survey in natural science disciplines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Ahmed; Aulls, Mark W.; Shore, Bruce M.

    2016-11-01

    Sociocognitive theory [Bandura, A. (1986). Social foundations of thought and action: A social cognitive theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall; Bandura, A. (1989). Human agency in social cognitive theory. American Psychologist, 44, 1175-1184. doi:10.1037/0003-066x.44.9.1175; Bandura, A. (1991). Social cognitive theory of self-regulation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 248-287. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(91)90022-L] accords high importance to the mechanisms of human agency and how they are exercised through self-efficacy. In this paper, we developed and validated the McGill Self-Efficacy For Inquiry Engagement (McSELFIE) instrument with undergraduate students in natural science disciplines. We defined inquiry engagement as carrying out the practices of science (POS) that are supported by students' personality characteristics (SPCs) and that result in achieving inquiry-learning outcomes (ILOs). Based on these theoretical perspectives, the McSELFIE is a 60-item, learner-focused survey that addresses three components that are theoretically important for engaging in scientific inquiry: (a) SPCs, (b) ILOs, and (c) POS. Evidence for construct and content validity were obtained by using experts' judgments and confirmatory factor analysis with a sample of 110 undergraduate students enrolled in science disciplines. Internal consistency of the factors and instrument was also examined. The McSELFIE instrument is a reliable and valid instrument for measuring science undergraduate students' self-efficacy for inquiry engagement. Matched pairs analyses were conducted among the instruments' factors. Students reported the highest self-efficacy for openness, applying knowledge, and carrying out investigations. Students reported the lowest self-efficacy for extraversion, understanding metacognitive knowledge, and planning investigations. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

  2. A lacustrine record from Lop Nur, Xinjiang, China: Implications for paleoclimate change during Late Pleistocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, L.; Zicheng, P.; Dong, Y.; Weiguo, L.; Zhaofeng, Z.; Jianfeng, H.; Chenlin, C.

    2009-01-01

    Climate variability during the Late Pleistocene is studied from the proxies in core CK-2 drilled from the Luobei Depression (91??03???E, 40??47???N), Lop Nur in the eastern Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China. Geophysical and geochemical properties, including magnetic susceptibility, granularity, chroma, carbonate content, loss on ignition and trace elements, have been determined to reconstruct the environmental evolution of the area during 32-9 ka BP. The chronology is established by uranium-thorium disequilibrium dating techniques. Our data suggest four paleoclimate stages, indicating glacial variations between cold-humid and warm-arid environments. A period of extreme humidity occurred during 31,900-19,200 yr BP is attributed the last glacial maximum (LGM). The period was followed by a warm-arid episode during 19,200-13,500 yr BP. Then a cold-humid interval during 13,500-12,700 yr BP may correspond to another cooling phases at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The last stage from 12,700 to 9000 yr BP has a trend that the climate turned warm and arid. The Lop Nur region is characterized by particularly humid stadials and arid interstadials. The climate variability in Lop Nur was constrained by global climate change because it is correlated with Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, which were observed at the northern high latitudes. The synchroneity of the palaeoclimatic events suggested that cold air activity at the northern high latitudes was the most important factor that influenced the climate evolution in the Lop Nur region. A probable mechanism that involves the migration of westerly winds is proposed to interpret this synchroneity. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Multi-proxy Paleoclimate and CO2 Reconstruction from the Latest Middle Eocene Sedimentary Fill of a Subarctic Kimberlitic Maar Crater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, A. V.; Wolfe, A. P.; Royer, D. L.; Greenwood, D. R.; Tierney, J. E.; Doria, G.; Gagen, M. H.; Siver, P.; Westgate, J.

    2016-12-01

    Eocene paleoclimate reconstructions are rarely accompanied by parallel estimates of CO2, complicating assessment of the equilibrium climate responses to CO2. We reconstruct temperature, precipitation, and CO2 from latest middle Eocene ( 38 Myrs ago) peats in subarctic Canada, preserved in sediments that record infilling of a kimberlite pipe maar crater. Mutual climatic range analyses of pollen, together with oxygen isotope analyses of a-cellulose from unpermineralized wood and inferenecs from branched glycerol diakyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), reveal a high-latitude humid-temperate forest ecosystem with mean annual temperatures (MATs) >17 °C warmer than present, mean coldest month temperatures above 0 °C, and mean annual precipitation 4x present. Metasequoia stomatal indices and gas-exchange modeling produce median CO2 concentrations of 634 and 432 ppm, respectively, with a consensus median estimate of 494 ppm. Reconstructed MATs are >6 °C warmer than those produced by Eocene climate models forced at 560 ppm CO2, underscoring the capacity for exceptional polar amplification of warming and hydrological intensification under relatively modest CO2 concentrations, once both fast and slow feedbacks become expressed.

  4. The paleo-climate change of Chaidam Basin during the last 2.85 Ma recorded by gamma-ray logging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Ye; Yuan Linwang; Liu Zechun

    2000-01-01

    The author deals with mainly the aspect of paleo-climate change of the basin. The approach used for the study consisted of (1) establishing the paleo-climate curve of the basin according to the climate indices, including the spore-pollen statistics, carbonate content and δ 18 O, obtained from the samples of the 760 m continuously-cored exploration holes sited in the basin, (2) comparing the paleo-climate curve with the natural gamma-logs of the same exploration holes, and (3) determining the paleo-climatic changes in the last 2.85 Ma on the basis of detailed geochronological calculations. These results are extremely important for comparison with the δ 18 O-based climate curve derived from the ODP659 in the Atlantic Ocean and with the cycles of paleosol in the Chinese loess

  5. Late Pliocene Depositional History and Paleoclimate Reconstructions of the Southwest Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royce, B.; Patterson, M. O.; Pietras, J.

    2017-12-01

    Drift deposits off the eastern margin of New Zealand are important archives for the paleoclimate and paleoceanographic history of the southwest Pacific. Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1123 is located on the North Chatham rise drift just North of the westerly wind driven Subtropical Front (STF) and provides a record of near continuous sediment deposition since the Miocene along the southwest Pacific deep western boundary current (DWBC). While the Miocene and Late Pleistocene portion of this record have been well studied, the Late Pliocene record is less well developed. Southern Ocean geological records demonstrate that Late Pliocene cooling is the transient time bracketing the warmer than present Early Pliocene and bipolar glaciation at 2.7 Ma. A newly developed, robust, and astronomically tuned long-term record of benthic δ13C from ODP Site 1123 spanning the Early to Late Pliocene implies a reduction in Southern Ocean ventilation and lowering of preformed values from waters sourced along the Antarctic margin during the Late Pliocene. Thus, Late Pliocene Southern Hemisphere cooling and sea ice expansion may have drastically reduced outgassing and increased the burial of heat into the deep ocean. South Atlantic records off the west coast of Africa demonstrate an increase in the flux of iron to the open ocean during this time potentially enhancing surface ocean productivity and providing an additional cooling mechanism. Currently, atmospheric transport of dust to the Southern Ocean is dominated by persistent mid-latitude circumpolar westerly winds; this is particularly relevant for dust sourced from New Zealand. The Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene uplift of the North Island axial ranges and South Island southern alps potentially provided a greater amount of not only sediment to the deep ocean, but also wind blow dust to the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. We will present a detailed high-resolution sedimentological study on the development of the Chatham

  6. Geophysical imaging of the lacustrine sediments deposited in the La Calderilla Volcanic Caldera (Gran Canaria Island, Spain) for paleoclimate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himi, Mahjoub; Rodríguez-González, Alejandro; Criado, Constantino; Tapias, Josefina C.; Ravazzi, Cesare; Pérez-Torrado, Francisco; Casas, Albert

    2016-04-01

    The discovery of well-preserved maar structures is important not only for studying the eruptive activity and formation of volcanoes, but also for paleoclimate research, since laminated maar lake sediments may contain very detailed archives of climate and environmental history. Maars are a singular type of volcanic structure generated by explosive phreatomagmatic eruptions as a result of interaction between rising magma and groundwater. This kind of structures are characterised by circular craters, often filled with water and/or lacustrine sediments and surrounded by a ring of pyroclastic deposits.Recently a borehole was drilled at the bottom of La Calderilla volcanic complex which penetrated about 8.7 m in its sedimentary sequence and paleobotanical study has supplied the first evidence of paleoenvironmental evolution during the Holocene on the Gran Canaria Island. This survey, however, did not penetrate into the substrate because the total thickness of the sedimentary fill was unknown. Since the age of formation of La Calderilla volcanic complex based on K/Ar dating is about 85,000 years (Upper Pleistocene), the possibility of its sedimentary fill extends beyond of the Holocene is extremely attractive, since, for example, there are few paleoenvironmental data regarding how much the last glaciation that affected the Canary Islands. In these circumstances, the knowledge of the total thickness of the lacustrine sediments is crucial to design a deeper borehole in the next future. Therefore, the subsurface characterisation provided by geophysics is essential for determining thickness and geometry of the sedimentary filling. Multielectrode ERT method was used to obtain five 2-D resistivity cross-sections into La Calderilla volcanic caldera. An Iris Syscal Pro resistivity system with 48 electrodes connected to a 94 m long cable (2m electrode spacing) in Wenner-Schlumberger configuration for an investigation depth of about 20 m. Data quality (q Current injected was

  7. Aragonite-Calcite Inversion During Biogenic Carbonate Sampling: Considerations for Interpreting Isotopic Measurements in Paleoclimate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, A. J.; Swart, P. K.

    2011-12-01

    , suggests that the isotopic depletion is tied to the polymorphic inversion of aragonite to calcite, and not just random chance based on natural isotopic variability in the skeleton. There appears to be no relationship between the percent inversion and carbon isotopic composition. Elemental ratios also appear to remain stable during the heating and inversion process. The findings of this and published studies present, in many cases, conflicting views of the isotopic fractionation associated with inversion of aragonite to calcite. Discrepancies such as this likely result from subtle differences in sampling protocol related to instruments, drill bits, skeletal density, and possibly even laboratory conditions like temperature and humidity, further complicating our understanding and interpretation of such observations. Preliminary investigation suggests that altering milling conditions or wet milling may reduce the extent of alteration. Unfortunately, milling/drilling remains one of the only practical methods of sampling biogenic carbonates at a high resolution for paleoclimate work and, as such, caution should be taken in the interpretation of oxygen isotopic measurements from specimens of this nature.

  8. Paleoclimate Signals and Temperature Reconstructions for the Northeastern United States using Atlantic White Cedar Tree-Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, J. K.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Pederson, N.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    High-resolution paleoclimate records of the Common Era are essential for improving detection and attribution of internal and forced climate system responses. The densely populated northeastern United States is at risk from impending climate shifts as well as sea level rise. Here we present a new network of annually resolved proxy data from Atlantic white cedar trees throughout the northeastern United States. Ring width variability reflects winter through summer temperatures at inland sites north of New Jersey. Climate signals embedded in the full network are evaluated for their potential to provide reconstructions of both temperature and drought variability. We demonstrate skillful climate reconstructions for the last several centuries and the potential to use subfossil samples to extend these records over the Common Era. Our tree-ring network provides the long-term context at multidecadal and centennial time scales for the large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes that influence the climate of the region.

  9. Using of microvertebrate remains in reconstruction of late quaternary (Holocene paleoclimate, Eastern Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Aliabadian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available   Introduction   Study of quaternary microvertebrate remains in eastern Iran, according to a few of the sediments is very important. Reconstruction of quaternary climate in many parts of West and North West of Iran as the biggest karst state is possible, such as cave Kani Mikaiel (Hashemi et al. 2005, 2006, 2007ab, 2008 2010, Jangjoo et al . 2010, Yafteh cave (Otte et al. 2007, Hashemi et al. 2015. However, such studies were very poor in eastern and north-eastern Iran (Hashemi and darvish 2006 Hashemi et al. 2008, 2015. Investigation of taxonomic identification quantification and distribution of micromammals revealed that these remains are useful in paleontology and archaeological research, because their abundance is useful for paleobiostratigraphy and dating of continental sediments. The recent research is about reconstruction of paleoclimate in two archeological sites of Konar sandal (KS (Jiroft and Tapeh Naderi (TN (Mashhad based on the microvertebrate and especially Tatera indica species. In these sites we attempted to solve the palaeoenvironment condition by analysis of rodent remains which hold the greatest potential to monitoring of ecological parameters (Hoover et al. 1977 Getz 1961 Reig 1970 Merritt 1974. Combining of a rich network of data with using of morphological and morphometric methods reconstruction of paleoenvironment documentation and investigation of their relationship with the environment is the main result of this research .       Material & Methods   In both zooarchaeological samples which are composed of juveniles and young individual rodent, (KS, NISP=800 and TN, NISP=3 cranial and postcranial remains were sorted anatomically and washed with water. Dental pattern of mandible and maxillary tooth rows were drowns using a drawing tube connecting to a stereomicroscope (Olympus SZH-10. All recovered teeth fragments were measured based on the greatest dental length and width of the upper and lower jaw molars

  10. Using of microvertebrate remains in reconstruction of late quaternary (Holocene paleoclimate, Eastern Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narges Hashemi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction   Study of quaternary microvertebrate remains in eastern Iran, according to a few of the sediments is very important. Reconstruction of quaternary climate in many parts of West and North West of Iran as the biggest karst state is possible, such as cave Kani Mikaiel (Hashemi et al. 2005, 2006, 2007a;b, 2008; 2010, Jangjoo et al . 2010, Yafteh cave (Otte et al. 2007, Hashemi et al. 2015. However, such studies were very poor in eastern and north-eastern Iran (Hashemi and darvish 2006; Hashemi et al. 2008, 2015. Investigation of taxonomic identification; quantification and distribution of micromammals revealed that these remains are useful in paleontology and archaeological research, because their abundance is useful for paleobiostratigraphy and dating of continental sediments. The recent research is about reconstruction of paleoclimate in two archeological sites of Konar sandal (KS (Jiroft and Tapeh Naderi (TN (Mashhad based on the microvertebrate and especially Tatera indica species. In these sites we attempted to solve the palaeoenvironment condition by analysis of rodent remains which hold the greatest potential to monitoring of ecological parameters (Hoover et al. 1977; Getz 1961; Reig 1970; Merritt 1974. Combining of a rich network of data with using of morphological and morphometric methods; reconstruction of paleoenvironment; documentation and investigation of their relationship with the environment is the main result of this research .       Material & Methods   In both zooarchaeological samples which are composed of juveniles and young individual rodent, (KS, NISP=800 and TN, NISP=3 cranial and postcranial remains were sorted anatomically and washed with water. Dental pattern of mandible and maxillary tooth rows were drowns using a drawing tube connecting to a stereomicroscope (Olympus SZH-10. All recovered teeth fragments were measured based on the greatest dental length and width of the upper and lower jaw molars when

  11. Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

    2007-11-01

    The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

  12. Late Cretaceous paleosols as paleoclimate proxies of high-latitude Southern Hemisphere: Mata Amarilla Formation, Patagonia, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varela, Augusto N.; Raigemborn, M. Sol; Richiano, Sebastián; White, Tim; Poiré, Daniel G.; Lizzoli, Sabrina

    2018-01-01

    Although there is general consensus that a global greenhouse climate characterized the mid-Cretaceous, details of the climate state of the mid-Cretaceous Southern Hemisphere are less clearly understood. In particular, continental paleoclimate reconstructions are scarce and exclusively derived from paleontological records. Using paleosol-derived climofunction studies of the mid- to Upper Cretaceous Mata Amarilla Formation, southern Patagonia, Argentina, we present a reconstruction of the mid-Cretaceous climate of southern South America. Our results indicate that at 60° south paleolatitude during the Cenomanian-Santonian stages, the climate was subtropical temperate-warm (12 °C ± 2.1 °C) and humid (1404 ± 108 mm/yr) with marked rainfall seasonality. These results are consistent with both previous estimations from the fossil floras of the Mata Amarilla Formation and other units of the Southern Hemisphere, and with the previous observations of the displacement of tropical and subtropical floras towards the poles in both hemispheres. The data presented here show a more marked seasonality and slightly lower mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature values than those recorded at the same paleolatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.

  13. 40Ar/39Ar Geochronology of Supergene K-bearing Sulfate Minerals: Cenozoic Continental Weathering, Landscape Evolution and Paleoclimates in the Tu-Ha Basin, Northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Zheng, D.; Chen, W.; Hough, B.; Qiu, H.; Wang, W.; Wu, Y.; Yang, L.

    2017-12-01

    40Ar/39Ar incremental-heating analyses of supergene jarosite and yavapaiite from three weathering profiles at the Hongshan, Liuhuangshan, and Caihuagou deposits in the Tu-Ha Basin, China, were carried out to provide numerical constraints on the timing and duration of weathering and derive insights into local paleoclimatic and landscape evolution. Well-constrained plateau ages and best-fitting inverse isochrons have been obtained for 11 samples, yield 40Ar/39Ar ages ranging from 33.3±0.5 Ma to 3.3±0.4 Ma (1σ). Our 40Ar/39Ar ages, combined with the published ages, indicate that the high elevations sites hosting the most complete and complex weathering profiles present. The presence of ancient weathering ages in current outcrop in the Tu-Ha Basin suggests that denudation was not homogeneous, and the landscape evolution follow a scarp retreat model. These geochronological results suggest that a protracted history of weathering and supergene enrichment and, by inference, arid-semiarid climate (with at least a moderate amount of precipitation (>10 cm/y)) favorable to intense chemical weathering emerged at 33.3 Ma, 27.7-23.3 Ma, and 16.4-14.7 Ma, and prevailed from 11-7.8 Ma. Then, a progressive change from arid-semiarid towards hyperarid conditions and predominantly hyperarid conditions may have persisted since at least ca. 3.3 Ma. The climatic implications inferred from the weathering geochronology are in agreement with the chemical parameters and isotopic compositions of the Cenozoic sedimentary sequence from the Lianmuqin section in the Tu-Ha Basin, attesting to the reliability of weathering geochronology by the 40Ar/39Ar method as an indicator of paleoclimate in arid areas. Our results suggest that the retreat of the Paratethys Sea, which would have reduced eastward water vapor transport by the westerlies to the Tu-Ha Basin, led to its aridification in the Oligocene and that increased rain shadow effects, resulting from uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and Tian Shan

  14. Why Drill More than One Ice Core? Paleoclimate Reconstruction along a Vertical Transect in the Saint Elias Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wake, C. P.; Yalcin, K.; Kreutz, K. J.; Mayewski, P. A.; Fisher, D.; Holdsworth, G.

    2004-05-01

    The Arctic represents one of the key regions on Earth in our efforts to document and understand global change. The St. Elias mountain range in the southwestern Yukon Territory has recently been the focus of an international ice core research.. The broad elevational extent of snow accumulation zones in this region (ranging from 2500 to 5300 m asl) allows for the detailed investigation of environmental change extending from the planetary boundary layer through to the free troposphere via the collection and analysis of ice cores from different elevations. Multi-parameter, high resolution glaciochemical records are currently available from the Northwest Col on Mt. Logan (5340 m asl, 103 m deep; 270 year record;) and from three cores recovered from the Eclipse Icefield (3107 m asl) in 1996 (160 m deep; 100 year record) and in 2002 (345 m and 140 m deep). Snow accumulation rates at Eclipse are about 5 times larger than the summit average of 0.30 m water equivalent. Despite their close proximity, the climate signals recorded on the summit of Mt. Logan also differ from those at Eclipse. For example, while the Mt. Logan record shows no increase in sulfate or nitrate deposition over the past 100 years, all three Eclipse cores shows a clear increase in nitrate and sulfate deposition beginning in the late 1940s due to an increase in anthropogenic emissions in Eurasia during this time period. Over the last century, the sulfate time-series from Eclipse records from 32 discrete volcanic events, primarily from Alaskan, Aleutian, or Kamchatkan eruptions, while the summit site only records 8 volcanic events. The Eclipse summer d18O record displays a significant positive relationship with summer temperatures at both coastal and interior Alaskan sites, while the Mt. Logan d18O time-series does not correlate well with instrumental temperature records or most circum-Arctic paleoclimate records. Conversely, the summit ice core accumulation time-series strongly correlates with

  15. High-resolution paleoclimate records of Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the Eastern Colombian Andes from Lago de Tota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M. N.; Bird, B. W.; Escobar, J.; Polissar, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Hemisphere (NH) South American Monsoon (SAM) is a significant source of precipitation for the North Andes (north of 0˚) and has major control over regional hydroclimate variability. Holocene-length histories of NH SAM variability are few compared to the Southern Hemisphere (SH), limiting understanding of how these systems are connected on orbital and shorter timescales. Here, we present multi-proxy lake-sediment-based paleoclimate and paleohydrologic reconstructions from Lago de Tota, Colombia, using sedimentological, geochemical and leaf-wax hydrogen isotopic indicators from radiometically dated cores. The results indicate periods of wet and dry climate phases during the past 9000 BP with an average Holocene sedimentation rate 33cm/kyr. An increase in total organic matter (TOM) content and finer grain-size distributions was observed from 8000 to 3200 BP, suggesting a period of high lake level. This was followed by lower TOM and coarser grain sizes, suggesting lower lake levels from 3200 BP to the present. Although Tota's lake level pattern is antiphased with other lake level reconstructions from the NH and SH Andes, it is consistent with hypothesized changes in atmospheric convection over the Andes during the Holocene and the way in which they would be modified by the so-called dry island effect in the Colombian Andes. This suggests that a common forcing mechanism can be invoked to explain differing millennial-scale Andean hydroclimate changes, namely atmospheric convection. Orbital and Pacific atmosphere-forcing are therefore likely to have played a significant role in driving pan-Andean hydroclimate variability based on their inter-hemispheric influence on Andean convection.

  16. Leçons d’analyse classique exposition d'un cours fait par Paul Koosis à l'Université McGill, Montréal

    CERN Document Server

    Poulin, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Ce livre est basé sur un cours de deuxième cycle donné en 2005-2006 par M. Paul Koosis, professeur émérite à l'université McGill. Il traite de sujets soigneusement choisis par le professeur à l'intention de ceux qui, plutôt que de rechercher un catalogue exhaustif de résultats techniques et abstraits, veulent être initiés aux découvertes les plus essentielles et prolifiques de l'analyse classique du vingtième siècle. Analyse harmonique, quasi-analyticité, zéros des fonctions entières (dont une preuve inédite du théorème de Levinson-Cartwright), approximation pondérée, principe d'incertitude, mesures harmoniques…, les résultats saillants et géniaux de l'analyse classique sont présentés dans un style soigné, rigoureux et détaillé, préparant les étudiants à des études plus poussées ; et au service du lecteur qui, connaissant les bases de la théorie de la mesure et de l'analyse complexe, désire suivre le merveilleux développement de M. Koosis et accroître sa connaissance d...

  17. Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mock, Cary Jeffrey

    This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several

  18. Petrography and stable isotope geochemistry of Oligocene-Miocene continental carbonates in south Texas: Implications for paleoclimate and paleoenvironment near sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfrey, Conan; Fan, Majie; Jesmok, Greg; Upadhyay, Deepshikha; Tripati, Aradhna

    2018-05-01

    Cenozoic sedimentary rocks in the southern Texas Gulf Coastal Plains contain abundant continental carbonates that are useful for reconstructing terrestrial paleoclimate and paleoenvironment in a region near sea-level. Our field observations and thin section characterizations of the Oligocene and Miocene continental carbonates in south Texas identified three types of pedogenic carbonates, including rhizoliths, carbonate nodules, and platy horizons, and two types of groundwater carbonates, including carbonate-cemented beds and carbonate concretions, with distinctive macromorphologic and micromorphologic features. Based on preservations of authigenic microfabrics and variations of carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions, we suggest these carbonates experienced minimal diagenesis, and their stable isotopic compositions reflect paleoclimate and paleoenvironment in south Texas. Our Oligocene and Miocene carbonate clumped isotope temperatures (T(Δ47)) are 23-28 °C, slightly less than or comparable to the range of modern mean annual and mean warm season air temperature (21-27 °C) in the study area. These T(Δ47) values do not show any dependency on carbonate-type, or trends through time suggesting that groundwater carbonates were formed at shallow depths. These data could indicate that air temperature in south Texas was relatively stable since the early Oligocene. The reconstructed paleo-surface water δ18O values are similar to modern surface water which could indicate that meteoric water δ18O values also remained stable since the early Oligocene. Mean pedogenic carbonate δ13C values increased - 4.6‰ during the late Miocene, most likely reflecting an expansion of C4 grassland in south Texas. This study provides the first mid- and late Cenozoic continental records of paleoclimate and paleoecology in a low-latitude, near sea-level region.

  19. Querying Provenance Information: Basic Notions and an Example from Paleoclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stodden, V.; Ludaescher, B.; Bocinsky, K.; Kintigh, K.; Kohler, T.; McPhillips, T.; Rush, J.

    2016-12-01

    Computational models are used to reconstruct and explain past environments and to predict likely future environments. For example, Bocinsky and Kohler have performed a 2,000-year reconstruction of the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in the US Southwest. The resulting academic publications not only contain traditional method descriptions, figures, etc. but also links to code and data for basic transparency and reproducibility. Examples include ResearchCompendia.org and the new project "Merging Science and Cyberinfrastructure Pathways: The Whole Tale." Provenance information provides a further critical element to understand a published study and to possibly extend or challenge the findings of the original authors. We present different notions and uses of provenance information using a computational archaeology example, e.g., the common use of "provenance for others" (for transparency and reproducibility), but also the more elusive but equally important use of "provenance for self". To this end, we distinguish prospective provenance (a.k.a. workflow) from retrospective provenance (a.k.a. data lineage) and show how combinations of both forms of provenance can be used to answer different kinds of important questions about a workflow and its execution. Since many workflows are developed using scripting or special purpose languages such as Python and R, we employ an approach and toolkit called YesWorkflow that brings provenance modeling, capture, and querying into the realm of scripting. YesWorkflow employs the basic W3C PROV standard, as well as the ProvONE extension for sharing and exchanging retrospective and prospective provenance information, respectively. Finally, we argue that the utility of provenance information should be maximized by developing different kinds provenance questions and queries during the early phases of computational workflow design and implementation.

  20. Optimal estimation of atmospheric {sup 14}C production over the Holocene: paleoclimate implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchal, Olivier [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2005-01-01

    A tree-ring {delta}{sup 14}C record and a simple box model of the global {sup 14}C cycle are combined using a method of optimal estimation theory (Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother). The combination is used to infer information about the time evolution of {sup 14}C production in the atmosphere (P) for the period 9400 year BCto AD1900 year. Unlike previous attempts to infer P changes from the tree-ring record, the errors in both the {delta}{sup 14}C data and the model, which are assumed to be purely random (not systematic), are formally considered. The optimal time evolution of P is compared to independent evidence of changes in cosmogenic nuclide production over the Holocene from a variety of records on their original chronology, e.g., a record of the virtual axial dipole moment (VADM) based on a compilation of archeomagnetic data, the record of {sup 10}Be concentration from the GISP2 ice core (Central Greenland), and the record of {sup 10}Be concentration from the PS1 ice core (South Pole). The rank correlations between P - VADM,P - {sup 10}Be(GISP2), and P - {sup 10}Be(PS1) are highly significant (p< 0.01), indicating that geomagnetic field intensity and {sup 10}Be concentration in GISP2 and PS1 changed monotonically with {sup 14}C production. The linear correlation coefficients between P - VADM,P - {sup 10}Be(GISP2), and P - {sup 10}Be(PS1) are also highly significant (p<0.01) but relatively small (-0.76, 0.48, and 0.60, respectively). Thus, an important fraction (42-77%) of the variance in the geomagnetic and {sup 10}Be data is not accounted for by linear regression on the {sup 14}C productions implied by the tree-ring record. The P variance near the 1500 yr period, which previous authors interpreted as solar variability, represents a small fraction of the total variance in the P time series (<15% for the band 1200-1800 yr) and does not correspond to a spectral peak. Hence, the hypothesis of a direct solar forcing mechanism for the postulated millennial climate

  1. The last glacial cycle documented on the Lower Bengal Fan - chronological and paleoclimate implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, M. E.; Dekens, P.; Reilly, B.; Lantzsch, H.; Selkin, P. A.; Das, S. K.; Williams, T.; Martos, Y. M.; Adhikari, R. R.; Gyawali, B. R.; Jia, G.; Fox, L. R.; Ge, J.; Manoj, M. C.; Savian, J. F.; Meynadier, L.; Spiess, V.; France-Lanord, C.; Klaus, A.

    2016-12-01

    IODP Expedition 354 set out in February to March 2015 to drill seven sites along an east west oriented core transect of 320 km length at 8°N in the Bengal Fan (France-Lanord et al., 2015). Sediments show complex intercalation of turbiditic and hemipelagic deposits, documenting the interaction of fan evolution and paleoceanographic history. Hemipelagic sequences represent a several meter thick top layer of Late Quaternary sediment. Deposits are either rich in biogenic opal/clay or in carbonate. We studied physical, optical, geochemical, grain-size, and stable isotopic properties of this top layer to establish a time frame, estimate sedimentary properties, and assess the development of the region during the last glacial cycle. For this purpose, we sampled Site U1452C-1H continuously for the uppermost 480 cm in 2-cm increments. Preliminary results indicate the Toba Ash 1 (74 ka) is a distinct time marker in most physical property data sets. Records of wet-bulk density as well as color reflectance b* (the red-green component) and L* (the lightness) show a dominant precession cyclicity. Hence, we are able to provide an insolation-tuned chronology for the last 200 ka (MIS1 - 7). These records agree well with d18O records retrieved from Chinese caves. An independent age model is derived from records of relative paleointensity (RPI), including the assessment of the Laschamp Event ( 40 ka), and on RPI tuning to global templates. We will compare both chronologies and evaluate their chronological and paleoclimatic implications. We will also present preliminary grain-size and paleoceanographic proxy data (sea-surface temperature, sea-surface salinity, and Mg/Ca) as well as color endmember modeling to reconstruct ice volume, marine biological productivity, nutrient supply, and deep-water circulation. The sedimentologic, oceanographic and climatic conditions are linked to changes in monsoonal strength and terrestrial input, which will also be studied using sedimentary proxies

  2. Effect of the greenhouse gases (CO2, H2O, SO2) on Martian paleoclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postawko, S. E.; Kuhn, W. R.

    1986-01-01

    There is general agreement that certain surface features on Mars are indicative of the presence of liquid water at various times in the geologic past. In particular, the valley networks are difficult to explain by a mechanism other than the flow of liquid water. It has been suggested in several studies that a thick CO2 atmosphere on Mars early in its history could have provided a greenhouse warming that would have allowed the flow of water either on the surface or just below the surface. However, this effect was examined with a detailed radiation model, and it was found that if reduced solar luminosity early in the history of the solar system is taken into account, even three bars of CO2 will not provide sufficient greeenhouse warming. The addition of water vapor and sulflur dioxide (both plausible gases that may have been emitted by Martian volcanoes) to the atmosphere also fail to warm the surface above 273 K for reduced solar luminosity conditions. The increase in temperature may be large enough, however, for the formation of these features by brines.

  3. Paleoclimate determines diversification patterns in the fossorial snake family Uropeltidae Cuvier, 1829.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cyriac, Vivek Philip; Kodandaramaiah, Ullasa

    2017-11-01

    Understanding how and why diversification rates vary across evolutionary time is central to understanding how biodiversity is generated and maintained. Recent mathematical models that allow estimation of diversification rates across time from reconstructed phylogenies have enabled us to make inferences on how biodiversity copes with environmental change. Here, we explore patterns of temporal diversification in Uropeltidae, a diverse fossorial snake family. We generate a time-calibrated phylogenetic hypothesis for Uropeltidae and show a significant correlation between diversification rate and paleotemperature during the Cenozoic. We show that the temporal diversification pattern of this group is punctuated by one rate shift event with a decrease in diversification and turnover rate between ca. 11Ma to present, but there is no strong support for mass extinction events. The analysis indicates higher turnover during periods of drastic climatic fluctuations and reduced diversification rates associated with contraction and fragmentation of forest habitats during the late Miocene. Our study highlights the influence of environmental fluctuations on diversification rates in fossorial taxa such as uropeltids, and raises conservation concerns related to present rate of climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Cyclic changes in Pennsylvanian paleoclimate and effects on floristic dynamics in tropical Pangaea

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMichele, W.A.; Cecil, C.B.; Montanez, I.P.; Falcon-Lang, H. J.

    2010-01-01

    Wetland floras narrowly define perceptions of Pennsylvanian tropical ecosystems, the so-called Coal Age. Such wetlands reflect humid to perhumid climate, leading to characterizations of Pennsylvanian tropics as everwet, swampy. These views are biased by the high preservation potential of wetlands. Sedimentation patterns, paleosols, and fossil floras indicate the presence of vegetation tolerant of subhumid to dry-subhumid, perhaps semi-arid climate in basins between peat formation times. Understanding the significance of this seasonally-dry vegetation has suffered from conceptual and terminological confusion. A clearer view has emerged as models for framing the data have improved. Basinal floras typical of seasonally-dry conditions, relatively low soil moisture regimes, are well documented but mainly from isolated deposits. Some of the earliest, dominated by primitive pteridosperms ("Fl??zfern" floras), occur in clastic rocks between European Early Pennsylvanian coal beds. Later Early Pennsylvanian, fern-cordaitalean vegetation, different from coal floras, is preserved in marine goniatite bullions. Conifers are first suggested by late Mississippian Potoniesporites pollen. About the same time, in North America, broadleaf foliage, Lesleya and Megalopteris occur in basin-margin settings, on drought-prone limestone substrates. The best known, xeromorphic floras found between coal beds appear in the Middle through Late Pennsylvanian, containing conifers, cordaitaleans, and pteridosperms. The Middle Pennsylvanian appearances of this flora are mainly allochthonous, though parautochthonous occurrences have been reported. Parautochthonous assemblages are mostly Late Pennsylvanian. The conifer flora became dominant in western and central Pangaean equatorial lowlands in earliest Permian. Location of the humid-perhumid wetland flora during periods of relative dryness, though rarely discussed, is as, or more, perplexing than the spatial location of seasonally-dry floras through

  5. Cyclic changes in Pennsylvanian paleoclimate and effects on floristic dynamics in tropical Pangaea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DiMichele, William A. [National Museum of Natural History MRC-121, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20560 (United States); Cecil, C. Blaine [National Museum of Natural History MRC-121, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20560 (United States); U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192 (United States); Montanez, Isabel P. [Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Falcon-Lang, Howard J. [Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX (United Kingdom)

    2010-08-01

    Wetland floras narrowly define perceptions of Pennsylvanian tropical ecosystems, the so-called Coal Age. Such wetlands reflect humid to perhumid climate, leading to characterizations of Pennsylvanian tropics as everwet, swampy. These views are biased by the high preservation potential of wetlands. Sedimentation patterns, paleosols, and fossil floras indicate the presence of vegetation tolerant of subhumid to dry-subhumid, perhaps semi-arid climate in basins between peat formation times. Understanding the significance of this seasonally-dry vegetation has suffered from conceptual and terminological confusion. A clearer view has emerged as models for framing the data have improved. Basinal floras typical of seasonally-dry conditions, relatively low soil moisture regimes, are well documented but mainly from isolated deposits. Some of the earliest, dominated by primitive pteridosperms (''Floezfern'' floras), occur in clastic rocks between European Early Pennsylvanian coal beds. Later Early Pennsylvanian, fern-cordaitalean vegetation, different from coal floras, is preserved in marine goniatite bullions. Conifers are first suggested by late Mississippian Potoniesporites pollen. About the same time, in North America, broadleaf foliage, Lesleya and Megalopteris occur in basin-margin settings, on drought-prone limestone substrates. The best known, xeromorphic floras found between coal beds appear in the Middle through Late Pennsylvanian, containing conifers, cordaitaleans, and pteridosperms. The Middle Pennsylvanian appearances of this flora are mainly allochthonous, though parautochthonous occurrences have been reported. Parautochthonous assemblages are mostly Late Pennsylvanian. The conifer flora became dominant in western and central Pangaean equatorial lowlands in earliest Permian. Location of the humid-perhumid wetland flora during periods of relative dryness, though rarely discussed, is as, or more, perplexing than the spatial location of

  6. Vegetation history and paleoclimate at Lake Dojran (FYROM/Greece) during the Late Glacial and Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Alessia; Francke, Alexander; Pepe, Caterina; Thienemann, Matthias; Wagner, Bernd; Sadori, Laura

    2018-03-01

    A new high-resolution pollen and NPP (non-pollen palynomorph) analysis has been performed on the sediments of Lake Dojran, a transboundary lake located at the border between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The sequence covers the last 12 500 years and provides information on the vegetational dynamics of the Late Glacial and Holocene for the southern Balkans. Robust age model, sedimentological diatom, and biomarker analyses published previously have been the base for a multi-perspective interpretation of the new palynological data. Pollen analysis revealed that the Late Glacial is characterized by steppic taxa with prevailing Amaranthaceae, Artemisia and Poaceae. The arboreal vegetation starts to rise after 11 500 yr BP, taking a couple of millennia to be definitively attested. Holocene vegetation is characterized by the dominance of mesophilous plants. The Quercus robur type and Pinus are the most abundant taxa, followed by the Quercus cerris type, the Quercus ilex type and Ostrya-Carpinus orientalis. The first attestation of human presence can be presumed at 5000 yr BP from the contemporary presence of cereals, Juglans and Rumex. A drop in both pollen concentration and influx together with a δ18Ocarb shift indicates increasing aridity and precedes clear and continuous human signs since 4000 yr BP. Also, a correlation between Pediastrum boryanum and fecal stanol suggests that the increase in nutrients in the water is related to human presence and pasture. An undoubted expansion of human-related plants occurs since 2600 yr BP when cereals, arboreal cultivated and other synanthropic non-cultivated taxa are found. A strong reduction in arboreal vegetation occurred at 2000 yr BP, when the Roman Empire impacted a landscape undergoing climate dryness in the whole Mediterranean area. In recent centuries the human impact still remains high but spots of natural vegetation are preserved. The Lake Dojran multi-proxy analysis including pollen

  7. Vegetation history and paleoclimate at Lake Dojran (FYROM/Greece during the Late Glacial and Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Masi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A new high-resolution pollen and NPP (non-pollen palynomorph analysis has been performed on the sediments of Lake Dojran, a transboundary lake located at the border between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM. The sequence covers the last 12 500 years and provides information on the vegetational dynamics of the Late Glacial and Holocene for the southern Balkans. Robust age model, sedimentological diatom, and biomarker analyses published previously have been the base for a multi-perspective interpretation of the new palynological data. Pollen analysis revealed that the Late Glacial is characterized by steppic taxa with prevailing Amaranthaceae, Artemisia and Poaceae. The arboreal vegetation starts to rise after 11 500 yr BP, taking a couple of millennia to be definitively attested. Holocene vegetation is characterized by the dominance of mesophilous plants. The Quercus robur type and Pinus are the most abundant taxa, followed by the Quercus cerris type, the Quercus ilex type and Ostrya–Carpinus orientalis. The first attestation of human presence can be presumed at 5000 yr BP from the contemporary presence of cereals, Juglans and Rumex. A drop in both pollen concentration and influx together with a δ18Ocarb shift indicates increasing aridity and precedes clear and continuous human signs since 4000 yr BP. Also, a correlation between Pediastrum boryanum and fecal stanol suggests that the increase in nutrients in the water is related to human presence and pasture. An undoubted expansion of human-related plants occurs since 2600 yr BP when cereals, arboreal cultivated and other synanthropic non-cultivated taxa are found. A strong reduction in arboreal vegetation occurred at 2000 yr BP, when the Roman Empire impacted a landscape undergoing climate dryness in the whole Mediterranean area. In recent centuries the human impact still remains high but spots of natural vegetation are preserved. The Lake

  8. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.

    2008-05-01

    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  9. Paleoclimate in continental northwestern Europe during the Eemian and early Weichselian (125-97 ka): insights from a Belgian speleothem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenberge, Stef; Verheyden, Sophie; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Keppens, Eddy; Claeys, Philippe

    2016-07-01

    The last interglacial serves as an excellent time interval for studying climate dynamics during past warm periods. Speleothems have been successfully used for reconstructing the paleoclimate of last interglacial continental Europe. However, all previously investigated speleothems are restricted to southern Europe or the Alps, leaving large parts of northwestern Europe undocumented. To better understand regional climate changes over the past, a larger spatial coverage of European last interglacial continental records is essential, and speleothems, because of their ability to obtain excellent chronologies, can provide a major contribution. Here, we present new, high-resolution data from a stalagmite (Han-9) obtained from the Han-sur-Lesse Cave in Belgium. Han-9 formed between 125.3 and ˜ 97 ka, with interruptions of growth occurring at 117.3-112.9 and 106.6-103.6 ka. The speleothem was investigated for its growth, morphology and stable isotope (δ13C and δ18O) composition. The speleothem started growing relatively late within the last interglacial, at 125.3 ka, as other European continental archives suggest that Eemian optimum conditions were already present during that time. It appears that the initiation of Han-9 growth is caused by an increase in moisture availability, linked to wetter conditions around 125.3 ka. The δ13C and δ18O proxies indicate a period of relatively stable conditions after 125.3 ka; however, at 120 ka the speleothem δ18O registered the first signs of regionally changing climate conditions, being a modification of ocean source δ18O linked to an increase in ice volume towards the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e-5d transition. At 117.5 ka, drastic vegetation changes are recorded by Han-9 δ13C immediately followed by a cessation of speleothem growth at 117.3 ka, suggesting a transition to significantly dryer conditions. The Han-9 record covering the early Weichselian displays larger amplitudes in both isotope proxies and changes in stalagmite

  10. Lessons learned from oxygen isotopes in modern precipitation applied to interpretation of speleothem records of paleoclimate from eastern Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayem, Katherine E.; Molnar, Peter; Battisti, David S.; Roe, Gerard H.

    2010-06-01

    values and monthly precipitation amounts can be applied to past conditions, differences of at least 50% in mean annual precipitation would be required to explain the δ18O variations on orbital time scales, which are implausibly large and inconsistent with published GCM results. Similarly, plausible amplitudes of seasonal cycles in amounts or in seasonal variations in δ18O values can account for less than half of the 4-5‰ difference between glacial and interglacial δ18O values from speleothems in China. If seasonal cycles in precipitation account for the amplitudes of δ18O values on paleoclimate timescales, they might do so by extending or contracting the durations of seasons (a frequency modulation of the annual cycle), but not by simply varying the amplitudes of the monthly rainfall amounts or monthly average δ18O values (amplitude modulation). Allowing that several processes can affect seasonal variability in isotopic content, we explore the possibility that one or more of the following processes contribute to variations in δ18O values in Chinese cave speleothems: different source regions of the precipitation, which bring different values of δ18O in vapor; different pathways between the moisture source and the paleorecord site along which exchange of 18O between vapor, surface water, and condensate might differ; a different mix of processes involving condensation and evaporation within the atmosphere; or different types of precipitation. Each may account for part of the range of δ18O values revealed by speleothems, and each might contribute to seasonal differences between past and present that do not scale with monthly or even seasonal precipitation amounts.

  11. Evaluation of Sr/Ca-based paleoclimate reconstructions in modern and Medieval Diploria strigosa corals in the northeastern Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.; Pearson, S. P.; Kilbourne, K.

    2013-12-01

    period with initial U-series dates near the top of the cores ranging from 1277 × 5 A.D. to 1327 × 5 A.D. Initial Sr/Ca results from the first sub-fossil coral have a seasonal range of 2.65 × 0.27 °C when converted to temperature units with our modern calibration, indicating no significant change from modern times. However, the mean Sr/Ca for this coral is very high (9.388 mmol/mol) compared to the modern corals. We explore the potential causes for this discrepancy in our study. Because reconstructing the mean SST during the Medieval Climate Anomaly may be difficult without temporal overlap with modern corals, our focus is on interannual variability. The coral Sr/Ca based monthly SST anomalies for both modern and sub-fossil corals have larger interannual variances than the instrumental record. One explanation for this is that the SSTs derived from sub-fossil corals are local data for which one expects larger variances than the instrumental data averaged over a 2 x 2 ° grid. This species shows great promise for future paleoclimate reconstructions.

  12. Examining the provenance of branched GDGTs in the Tagus River drainage basin and its outflow into the Atlantic Ocean over the Holocene to determine their usefulness for paleoclimate applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warden, L.; Kim, J.-H; Zell, C.; Vis, G.-J.; de Stigter, H.C.; Bonnin, J.; Sinninghe Damste, J.S.

    2016-01-01

    The distributions of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), which are transported from the soils where they are predominantly produced to marine sediments via rivers, have been applied in reconstructing mean annual air temperature (MAT) and pH of soils. However, paleoclimate

  13. IDRC and McGill University

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    is leading research into psychological ... and cultural expressions of distress, ... 6. 5. 2. 7. 1. IDRC. INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTRE ... scientific director of the Douglas Mental Health Institute. R. A. D. IO. N. ED. ER. LA.

  14. Geochemistry of buried river sediments from Ghaggar Plains, NW India: Multi-proxy records of variations in provenance, paleoclimate, and paleovegetation patterns in the Late Quaternary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Ajit; Paul, Debajyoti; Sinha, Rajiv

    2016-01-01

    We report the first geochemical record in two drill-sediment cores from a buried channel in the Ghaggar Plains of NW India, which are used to infer variations in provenance, paleoclimate, and paleovegetation in the locality during the Late Quaternary. Aeolian sediments (~150 ka) in both the cores...... are overlain by fluvial sediments (~75 ka-recent). Major oxide compositions of the core sediments (n = 35) generally vary between that observed for the modern-day Ghaggar/Sutlej and Yamuna river sand. The isotopic composition (87Sr/86Sr: 0.7365 to 0.7783 and εNd: -14.6 to -19.0) of core sediments (n = 18......) suggest binary mixing of sediments from compositionally distinct Higher Himalaya (HH) and Lesser Himalaya (LH) endmembers in the catchment, and support involvement of a river system originating in the Himalayan hinterland. Distinctly higher 87Sr/86Sr and lower εNd in the core sediments during glacial...

  15. A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohmann, G.; Pfeiffer, M.; Laepple, T.; Leduc, G.; Kim, J.-H.

    2013-01-01

    We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate

  16. Multiproxy Holocene paleoclimate records from the southern Peruvian Andes - what new can we learn from the stable carbon isotope composition of high altitude organic matter deposits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skrzypek, Grzegorz; Engel, Zbyněk

    2015-04-01

    Interpretation of the Central Andean paleoclimate over the last millennia still represents a research challenge demanding deeper studies [1,2]. Several high-resolution paleoclimate proxies for the last 10,000 years have been developed for the northern hemisphere. However, similar proxies are very limited for South America, particularly for high altitudes where, for example, tree-ring chronologies are not available and instrumental records are very limited. Consequently, our knowledge of high altitude climate changes in arid regions of the Peruvian Andes mainly relies on ice-core and lake deposit studies. In our study, we used a new alternative proxy for interpretation of palaeoclimate conditions based on a peat core taken from the Carhuasanta Valley at the foot of Nevado Mismi in the southern Peruvian Andes (15° 30'S, 71° 43'W, 4809m a.s.l.). The stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of Distichia peat reflects mainly the relative variation of the mean air temperature during subsequent growing seasons [3], and allows reconstructions of palaeotemperature changes. In contrast, peat organic carbon concentration (C % wt) records mainly wetness in the valley, directly corresponding to the changes in runoff in the upper part of the catchment. The most prominent climate changes recorded in the peat over last 4ka occurred between 3040 and 2750 cal. yrs BP. The initial warming turned to a very rapid cooling to temperatures at least 2° C lower than the mean for the Late Holocene. Initially drier conditions within this event turned to a short wet phase after 2780 cal. yrs BP, when the temperature increased again. This event coincides with significant changes in peat and ice core records in the Central Andes that match the timing of the global climate event around 2.8 cal. ka BP. Climatic conditions in the study area became relatively dry and stable after the event for about 800 years. Highly variable temperatures and humidity prevailed during the last 2000 years, when

  17. Paleo-Climate and Glaciological Reconstruction in Central Asia through the Collection and Analysis of Ice Cores and Instrumental Data from the Tien Shan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladimir Aizen; Donald Bren; Karl Kreutz; Cameron Wake

    2001-01-01

    While the majority of ice core investigations have been undertaken in the polar regions, a few ice cores recovered from carefully selected high altitude/mid-to-low latitude glaciers have also provided valuable records of climate variability in these regions. A regional array of high resolution, multi-parameter ice core records developed from temperate and tropical regions of the globe can be used to document regional climate and environmental change in the latitudes which are home to the vase majority of the Earth's human population. In addition, these records can be directly compared with ice core records available from the polar regions and can therefore expand our understanding of inter-hemispheric dynamics of past climate changes. The main objectives of our paleoclimate research in the Tien Shan mountains of middle Asia combine the development of detailed paleoenvironmental records via the physical and chemical analysis of ice cores with the analysis of modern meteorological and hydrological data. The first step in this research was the collection of ice cores from the accumulation zone of the Inylchek Glacier and the collection of meteorological data from a variety of stations throughout the Tien Shan. The research effort described in this report was part of a collaborative effort with the United State Geological Survey's (USGS) Global Environmental Research Program which began studying radionuclide deposition in mid-latitude glaciers in 1995

  18. A promising location in Patagonia for paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental reconstructions revealed by shallow firn core from Monte San Valentin (Northern patagonia Icefield, Chile)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vimeux, F.; de Angelis, M.; Ginot, P.

    2008-01-01

    temperature is -11.9°C at 10-m depth allowing to expect well preserved both chemical and isotopic signals, unperturbed by water percolation. The dating of the core, on the basis of a multi-proxy approach combining annual layer counting and radionuclide measurements, shows that past environment and climate can......The study of past climate variability from ice core investigations has been largely developed both in polar areas over the past decades and, more recently, in tropical regions, specifically along the South American Andes between 0° and 20°S. However a large gap still remains at mid......-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. In this framework, a 15.3-m long shallow firn core has been extracted in March 2005 from the summit plateau of Monte San Valentín (3747 m, 46°35'S, 73°19'W) in the Northern Patagonia Icefield to test its potential for paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The firn...

  19. Carbon isotopes: variations of their natural abundance. Application to correction of radiocarbon dates, to the study of plant metabolism and to paleoclimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerman, J.C.

    1974-01-01

    The radiocarbon activity of contemporaneous samples shows: i) variations in the specific activity of the atmospheric C14, which varies with time and locality. ii) variations due to isotope discrimination, or fractionation, of the carbon isotope ratio during the fixation of carbon by organic or inorganic matter. The variation in the atmospheric concentration of carbon 14 as observed in tree rings are synchronous and of the same amplitude for both hemispheres (southern and northern). A curve for correction of radiocarbon dates of the southern hemisphere is given for the last 500 years. The activity of atmospheric radiocarbon as measured in tree rings varies with latitude, showing a difference of (4.5+-1) per mille between the northern and southern hemispheres, the latter having lower concentration of radiocarbon, equivalent to an age difference of about 35 years. This variation can be explained by a larger exchange of carbon 14 between the atmosphere and the sea in the southern hemisphere to a larger free ocean surface (40%) and a higher agitation by winds. The main differences of the isotope fractionation by different types of plants are correlated to their photosynthetic pathways and thus to the enzyme which effects the primary fixation of carbon. The delta C13 values can be used as basis of a paleoclimate indicator [fr

  20. Paleo-Climate and Glaciological Reconstruction in Central Asia through the Collection and Analysis of Ice Cores and Instrumental Data from the Tien Shan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vladimir Aizen; Donald Bren; Karl Kreutz; Cameron Wake

    2001-05-30

    While the majority of ice core investigations have been undertaken in the polar regions, a few ice cores recovered from carefully selected high altitude/mid-to-low latitude glaciers have also provided valuable records of climate variability in these regions. A regional array of high resolution, multi-parameter ice core records developed from temperate and tropical regions of the globe can be used to document regional climate and environmental change in the latitudes which are home to the vase majority of the Earth's human population. In addition, these records can be directly compared with ice core records available from the polar regions and can therefore expand our understanding of inter-hemispheric dynamics of past climate changes. The main objectives of our paleoclimate research in the Tien Shan mountains of middle Asia combine the development of detailed paleoenvironmental records via the physical and chemical analysis of ice cores with the analysis of modern meteorological and hydrological data. The first step in this research was the collection of ice cores from the accumulation zone of the Inylchek Glacier and the collection of meteorological data from a variety of stations throughout the Tien Shan. The research effort described in this report was part of a collaborative effort with the United State Geological Survey's (USGS) Global Environmental Research Program which began studying radionuclide deposition in mid-latitude glaciers in 1995.

  1. Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select an optimal realisation in an ensemble of simulations of the past millennium.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosse, H.; Renssen, H.; Timmermann, A.; Bradley, R.S.; Mann, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To

  2. What Can Earth Paleoclimates Reveal About the Resiliency of Habitable States? An Example from the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, L.

    2014-04-01

    The Neoproterozoic "Snowball Earth" glaciations ( 750-635 Ma) have been a special focus for outer habitable zone investigations, owing in large part to a captivating and controversial hypothesis suggesting that Earth may have only narrowly escaped a runaway icehouse state on multiple occasions (a.k.a. "the hard snowball"; Hoffman and Schrag 2001). A review of climate simulations exploring snowball inception (Godderis et al. 2011) reveals that a broad range of models (EBMs, EMICs and AGCMs) tend to yield hard snowball solutions, whereas models with greater 3-D dynamic response capabilities (AOGCMs) typically do not, unless some of their climate feedback responses (e.g., wind-driven ocean circulation, cloud forcings) are disabled (Poulsen and Jacobs 2004). This finding raises the likelihood that models incorporating dynamic climate feedbacks are essential to understanding how much flexibility there may be in the definition of a planet's habitable zone boundaries for a given point in its history. In the first of a series of new Snowball Earth simulations, we use the NASA/GISS ModelE2 Global Climate Model - a 3-D coupled atmosphere/ocean model with dynamic sea ice response - to explore the impacts of wind-driven ocean circulation, clouds and deep ocean circulation on the sea ice front when solar luminosity and atmospheric carbon dioxide are reduced to Neoproterozoic levels (solar = 94%, CO2 = 40 ppmv). The simulation includes a realistic Neoproterozoic land mass distribution, which is concentrated at mid- to tropical latitudes. After 300 years, the sea ice front is established near 30 degrees latitude, and after 600 years it remains stable. As with earlier coupled model simulations we conclude that runaway glacial states would have been difficult to achieve during the Neoproterozoic, and would be more likely to have occurred during earlier times in Earth history when solar luminosity was less. Inclusion of dynamic climate feedback capabilities in habitable zone

  3. Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin, V V; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

    2010-10-13

    Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies. We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp) obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species. Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of this region.

  4. Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V V Robin

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies.We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species.Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of

  5. Changes in precipitation isotope-climate relationships from temporal grouping and aggregation of weekly-resolved USNIP data: impacts on paleoclimate and environmental applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akers, P. D.; Welker, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Spatial variations in precipitation isotopes have been the focus of much recent research, but relatively less work has explored changes at various temporal scales. This is partly because most spatially-diverse and long-term isotope databases are offered at a monthly resolution, while daily or event-level records are spatially and temporally limited by cost and logistics. A subset of 25 United States Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (USNIP) sites with weekly-resolution in the east-central United States was analyzed for site-specific relationships between δ18O and δD (the local meteoric water line/LMWL), δ18O and surface temperature, and δ18O and precipitation amount. Weekly data were then aggregated into monthly and seasonal data to examine the effect of aggregation on correlation and slope values for each of the relationships. Generally, increasing aggregation improved correlations (>25% for some sites) due to a reduced effect of extreme values, but estimates on regression variable error increased (>100%) because of reduced sample sizes. Aggregation resulted in small, but significant drops (5-25%) in relationship slope values for some sites. Weekly data were also grouped by month and season to explore changes in relationships throughout the year. Significant subannual variability exists in slope values and correlations even for sites with very strong overall correlations. LMWL slopes are highest in winter and lowest in summer, while the δ18O-surface temperature relationship is strongest in spring. Despite these overall trends, a high level of month-to-month and season-to-season variability is the norm for these sites. Researchers blindly applying overall relationships drawn from monthly-resolved databases to paleoclimate or environmental research risk assuming these relationships apply at all temporal resolutions. When possible, researchers should match the temporal resolution used to calculate an isotopic relationship with the temporal resolution of

  6. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

    OpenAIRE

    Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2013-01-01

    Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) an...

  7. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles reconstruct?

    OpenAIRE

    K. Saito; T. Sueyoshi; S. Marchenko; V. Romanovsky; B. Otto-Bliesner; J. Walsh; N. Bigelow; A. Hendricks; K. Yoshikawa

    2013-01-01

    Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (...

  8. Arctic temperature and moisture trends during the past 2000 years - Progress from multiproxy-paleoclimate data compilations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Darrell; Routson, Cody; McKay, Nicholas; Beltrami, Hugo; Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Konecky, Bronwen; Saenger, Casey

    2017-04-01

    Instrumental climate data and climate-model projections show that Arctic-wide surface temperature and precipitation are positively correlated. Higher temperatures coincide with greater moisture by: (1) expanding the duration and source area for evaporation as sea ice retracts, (2) enhancing the poleward moisture transport, and (3) increasing the water-vapor content of the atmosphere. Higher temperature also influences evaporation rate, and therefore precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), the climate variable often sensed by paleo-hydroclimate proxies. Here, we test whether Arctic temperature and moisture also correlate on centennial timescales over the Common Era (CE). We use the new PAGES2k multiproxy-temperature dataset along with a first-pass compilation of moisture-sensitive proxy records to calculate century-scale composite timeseries, with a focus on longer records that extend back through the first millennium CE. We present a new Arctic borehole temperature reconstruction as a check on the magnitude of Little Ice Age cooling inferred from the proxy records, and we investigate the spatial pattern of centennial-scale variability. Similar to previous reconstructions, v2 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature dataset shows that, prior to the 20th century, mean annual Arctic-wide temperature decreased over the CE. The millennial-scale cooling trend is most prominent in proxy records from glacier ice, but is also registered in lake and marine sediment, and trees. In contrast, the composite of moisture-sensitive (primarily P-E) records does not exhibit a millennial-scale trend. Determining whether fluctuations in the mean state of Arctic temperature and moisture were in fact decoupled is hampered by the difficulty in detecting a significant trend within the relatively small number of spatially heterogeneous multi-proxy moisture-sensitive records. A decoupling of temperature and moisture would indicate that evaporation had a strong counterbalancing effect on precipitation

  9. Los yacimientos de vertebrados del Mioceno medio de Somosaguas (Pozuelo de Alarcón, Madrid: implicaciones paleoambientales y paleoclimáticas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    López Martínez, N.

    2006-12-01

    nueva de hámster (Cricetodon soriae nov. sp.. La sucesión muestra varios episodios de coladas de tipo debris-flow con transporte de huesos, rocas y arcosas discordantes por debajo y por encima de un relleno lacustre. Los depósitos contienen una secuencia de alteración de micas con arcillas de neoformación progresivamente más evolucionadas y vetas de caliche hacia techo, indicando aridez creciente. La riqueza del conjunto de macro y microvertebrados de los yacimientos de Somosaguas permite relacionarlo con el de otros yacimientos de edad similar, resultando en un patrón biogeográfico de transición paleártico-paleotropical. Esto coincide con los datos paleoclimáticos aportados por la fauna de mamíferos, que indican la existencia de condiciones tropicales con estacionalidad hídrica muy marcada. Se infiere la existencia en el área de un mosaico de ambientes dentro de un bioma de sabana, combinando áreas abiertas y bosquetes asociados al medio lacustre. El análisis isotópico indica un progresivo enfriamiento y aridez, que se correlaciona con los cambios climáticos inferidos a escala global en este período, hace unos 14 millones de años.

  10. Teaching the fundamentals of the modelling of cyber-physical systems

    OpenAIRE

    Tendeloo, Van, Yentl; Vangheluwe, Hans

    2016-01-01

    Abstract: Current Cyber-Physical Systems are becoming too complex to model and simulate using the usual approaches. This complexity is not only due to a large number of components, but also by the increasing diversity of components and problem aspects. In this paper, we report on over a decade of experience in teaching the modelling and simulation of complex Cyber-Physical Systems, at both McGill University, and the University of Antwerp. We tackle complexity through the use of multiple forma...

  11. Pleistocene climate, phylogeny, and climate envelope models: an integrative approach to better understand species' response to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Michelle Lawing

    Full Text Available Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models, phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species, and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr.

  12. Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goosse, Hugues [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Chemin du Cyclotron, 2, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam, HV (Netherlands); Timmermann, Axel [University of Hawaii, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Masschusetts, MA (United States); Mann, Michael E. [Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI), Pennsylvania, PA (United States)

    2006-08-15

    We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale. (orig.)

  13. MODEL RECONSTRUCTION OF THE VEGETATION COVER OF THE SOUTH OF THE WEST SIBERIAN PLAIN FROM THE LATE PALEOLITHIC PERIOD UNTIL THE LATE XIX CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. А. Kharitonenkov

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Model reconstruction of vegetation cover of the south of the West Siberian Plain from the late Pleistocene to the modern era has been carried out on the basis of the associated chronological analysis of paleontological, archaeological and paleoclimate data. We have determined the starting point of active vegetation transformation in the south of the West Siberian Plain as a result of tradition-bound exploitation of natural resources. Periods of maximum anthropogenic load – peak and relative recession – on vegetation cover, acting as a further determinant factor, have been determined in this study for the first time. Comprehensive analysis and new understanding of palynological, paleozoological, archaeological and paleoclimate data in terms of theoretical synecology confirmed the notions on the determinant role of the anthropogenic factor in the transformation of the Pleistocene forest-meadow-steppe vegetation into contemporary communities of the southern taiga, the subtaiga and the forest-steppe of the West Siberian Plain.

  14. Climate modeling - a tool for the assessment of the paleodistribution of source and reservoir rocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roscher, M.; Schneider, J.W. [Technische Univ. Bergakademie Freiberg (Germany). Inst. fuer Geologie; Berner, U. [Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover (Germany). Referat Organische Geochemie/Kohlenwasserstoff-Forschung

    2008-10-23

    In an on-going project of BGR and TU Bergakademie Freiberg, numeric paleo-climate modeling is used as a tool for the assessment of the paleo-distribution of organic rich deposits as well as of reservoir rocks. This modeling approach is based on new ideas concerning the formation of the Pangea supercontinent. The new plate tectonic concept is supported by paleo- magnetic data as it fits the 95% confidence interval of published data. Six Permocarboniferous time slices (340, 320, 300, 290, 270, 255 Ma) were chosen within a first paleo-climate modeling approach as they represent the most important changes of the Late Paleozoic climate development. The digital maps have a resolution of 2.8 x 2.8 (T42), suitable for high-resolution climate modeling, using the PLASIM model. CO{sub 2} concentrations of the paleo-atmosphere and paleo-insolation values have been estimated by published methods. For the purpose of validation, quantitative model output, had to be transformed into qualitative parameters in order to be able to compare digital data with qualitative data of geologic indicators. The model output of surface temperatures and precipitation was therefore converted into climate zones. The reconstructed occurrences of geological indicators like aeolian sands, evaporites, reefs, coals, oil source rocks, tillites, phosphorites and cherts were then compared to the computed paleo-climate zones. Examples of the Permian Pangea show a very good agreement between model results and geological indicators. From the modeling approach we are able to identify climatic processes which lead to the deposition of hydrocarbon source and reservoir rocks. The regional assessment of such atmospheric processes may be used for the identification of the paleo-distribution of organic rich deposits or rock types suitable to form hydrocarbon reservoirs. (orig.)

  15. Temperature Covariance in Tree Ring Reconstructions and Model Simulations Over the Past Millennium

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hartl-Meier, C. T. M.; Büntgen, Ulf; Smerdon, J. E.; Zorita, E.; Krusic, P. J.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Schneider, L.; Esper, J.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 18 (2017), s. 9458-9469 ISSN 0094-8276 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:68378076 Keywords : last millennium * northern-hemisphere * summer temperatures * american southwest * volcanic-eruptions * tibetan plateau * sierra-nevada * system model * central-asia * climate * paleoclimate * spatial temperature synchrony * millennial scale * radiative forcing * proxy model comparison Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 4.253, year: 2016

  16. Astronomically forced paleoclimate change from middle Eocene to early Oligocene: continental conditions in central China compared with the global marine isotope record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.

    2010-12-01

    The early Eocene climatic optimum ended with a long interval of global cooling that began in the early Middle Eocene and ended at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. During this long-term cooling, a series of short-term warming reversals occurred in the marine realm. Here, we investigate corresponding continental climate conditions as revealed in the Qianjiang Formation of the Jianghan Basin in central China, which consists of more than 4000 m of saline lake sediments. The Qianjiang Formation includes, in its deepest sections, a halite-rich rhythmic sediment succession with dark mudstone, brownish-white siltstone and sandstone, and greyish-white halite. Alternating fresh water (humid/cool)—saline water (dry/hot) deposits reflect climate cycles driven by orbital forcing. High-resolution gamma ray (GR) logging from the basin center captures these pronounced lithological rhythms throughout the formation. Several halite-rich intervals are interpreted as short-term warming events within the middle Eocene to early Oligocene, and could be expressions of coeval warming events in the global marine oxygen isotope record, for example, the middle Eocene climate optimum (MECO) event around 41 Ma. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary is distinguished by a radical change from halite-rich to clastic sediments, indicating a dramatic climate change from warm to cool conditions. Power spectral analysis of the GR series indicates strong short (~100 kyr) eccentricity cycling during the warm/hot episodes. Amplitude modulation of the short eccentricity in the GR series occurs with a strong 405 kyr periodicity. This cycling is calibrated to the La2004 orbital eccentricity model. A climate reversal occurs at 36.5 Ma within the long-term marine cooling trend following MECO, which is reflected also in the Qianjiang GR series, with the latter indicating several brief warm/dry reversals within the trend. A ~2.6 Myr halite-rich warm interval occurs in the latest Eocene in the continental record; both

  17. Facies analysis, depositional environments and paleoclimate of the Cretaceous Bima Formation in the Gongola Sub - Basin, Northern Benue Trough, NE Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shettima, B.; Abubakar, M. B.; Kuku, A.; Haruna, A. I.

    2018-01-01

    Facies analysis of the Cretaceous Bima Formation in the Gongola Sub -basin of the Northern Benue Trough northeastern Nigeria indicated that the Lower Bima Member is composed of alluvial fan and braided river facies associations. The alluvial fan depositional environment dominantly consists of debris flow facies that commonly occur as matrix supported conglomerate. This facies is locally associated with grain supported conglomerate and mudstone facies, representing sieve channel and mud flow deposits respectively, and these deposits may account for the proximal alluvial fan region of the Lower Bima Member. The distal fan facies were represented by gravel-bed braided river system of probably Scot - type model. This grade into sandy braided river systems with well developed floodplains facies, forming probably at the lowermost portion of the alluvial fan depositional gradient, where it inter-fingers with basinal facies. In the Middle Bima Member, the facies architecture is dominantly suggestive of deep perennial sand-bed braided river system with thickly developed amalgamated trough crossbedded sandstone facies fining to mudstone. Couplets of shallow channels are also locally common, attesting to the varying topography of the basin. The Upper Bima Member is characterized by shallow perennial sand-bed braided river system composed of successive succession of planar and trough crossbedded sandstone facies associations, and shallower channels of the flashy ephemeral sheetflood sand - bed river systems defined by interbedded succession of small scale trough crossbedded sandstone facies and parallel laminated sandstone facies. The overall stacking pattern of the facies succession of the Bima Formation in the Gongola Sub - basin is generally thinning and fining upwards cycles, indicating scarp retreat and deposition in a relatively passive margin setting. Dominance of kaolinite in the clay mineral fraction of the Bima Formation points to predominance of humid sub - tropical

  18. A Test of the MSEC Method for Paleoclimate and intersite correlations from Late Pleistocene/Holocene cave sites in southern Europe : results from Cova de les Cendres, SE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooks Ellwood

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available En los ultlmos diez alios, se han utilizado las mediciones de la susceptibilidad magnetica (MS de los sedimentos de los yacimientos arqueologicos en cueva para establecer correlaciones entre yacimientos y una estimacion del paleoclima. Ello es posible porque la MS correspondiente a estos sedimentos es el resultado de los procesos activos del clima en el exterior de las cavidades y las variaciones en las propiedades magneticas de los sedimentos, que finalmente se acumulan en el interior de las cavidades. Una vez que se ban depositado, estos materiales son preservados y su estratigraffa proporciona una informacion sobre el clima que puede ser inferida. En este trabajo, al usar la magnetosusceptibilidad, el metodo de cicloestratigrafia (MSEC y la correlacion grafica, presentamos informacion sobre la Cova de les Cendres y situamos estos resultados en un marco paleoclimatico que abarca los ultimos 43.000 anos (fechas BP sin calibrar de la Europa meridional. Estos resultados correlacionan bien con otros indicadores independientes de clima. Ademas, a causa de que los sedimentos de la parte superior de la Cova de les Cendres se depositaron relativamente rapidos, es posible observar cambios climaticos de escala ultra-fina en los dates de esta parte de la secuencia en la cavidad.During the last 10 years or so, magnetic susceptibility (MS measurements of cave sediments from archaeological sites have been used for intra-site correlation and paleoclimate estimation. This is possible because the MS of these sediments results from climate processes active outside caves causing variations in magnetic properties of the sediments ultimately accumulating inside of caves. Once deposited, these materials are preserved and their stratigraphy provides a climate proxy that can be extracted. Here, using the magnetosusceptibility event and cyclostratigraphy (MSEC method and graphic correlation, we present data from Cova de les Cendres and place these results into a

  19. Nursing patients with acute chest pain: practice guided by the Prince Edward Island conceptual model for nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Janelle F; Murnaghan, Donna A

    2010-01-01

    Current research suggests that pain is a relatively common phenomenon with 60-90% of patients presenting to emergency departments reporting pain (e.g., chest pain, trauma, extremity fractures and migraine headache) that require treatment [Hogan, S.L., 2005. Patient satisfaction with pain management in the emergency department. Advanced Emergency Nursing Journal 27(4), 284-294]. This article explores the use of conceptual theoretical empirical (C-T-E) framework to guide a senior nursing student in a case study of patient with chest pain. The Middle Range Theory of Pain described by Good [Good, M., 1998. A middle-range theory of acute pain management: use in research. Nursing Outlook 46(3), 120-124] and Melzack's [Melzack, R., 1987. The short-form McGill pain questionnaire. Pain, 30, 191-197] short form McGill pain questionnaire were applied along with the Prince Edward Island conceptual model (PEICM) for nursing. Results indicate that the nursing student increased her ability to work in partnership, assess relevant and specific information, and identify a number of strategies to help the patient achieve pain control by using a complement of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions. Moreover, the C-T-E approach provided an organized and systematic theoretical approach for the nursing student to assist a patient in pain control.

  20. A Paleolatitude Calculator for Paleoclimate Studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hinsbergen, D.J.J.; De Groot, L.V.; Van Schaik, S.J.; Spakman, W.; Bijl, P.K.; Sluijs, A.; Langereis, C.G.; Brinkhuis, H.

    2015-01-01

    Realistic appraisal of paleoclimatic information obtained from a particular location requires accurate knowledge of its paleolatitude defined relative to the Earth’s spin-axis. This is crucial to, among others, correctly assess the amount of solar energy received at a location at the moment of

  1. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2012-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE...... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures...... the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from paleoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of errors in the reconstructions of volcanic and/or solar radiative forcing used to drive the models or the incomplete representation of certain processes or variability within...

  2. How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first PMIP model-data comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ramstein

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The Last Glacial Maximum has been one of the first foci of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP. During its first phase, the results of 17 atmosphere general circulation models were compared to paleoclimate reconstructions. One of the largest discrepancies in the simulations was the systematic underestimation, by at least 10°C, of the winter cooling over Europe and the Mediterranean region observed in the pollen-based reconstructions. In this paper, we investigate the progress achieved to reduce this inconsistency through a large modelling effort and improved temperature reconstructions. We show that increased model spatial resolution does not significantly increase the simulated LGM winter cooling. Further, neither the inclusion of a vegetation cover compatible with the LGM climate, nor the interactions with the oceans simulated by the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models run in the second phase of PMIP result in a better agreement between models and data. Accounting for changes in interannual variability in the interpretation of the pollen data does not result in a reduction of the reconstructed cooling. The largest recent improvement in the model-data comparison has instead arisen from a new climate reconstruction based on inverse vegetation modelling, which explicitly accounts for the CO2 decrease at LGM and which substantially reduces the LGM winter cooling reconstructed from pollen assemblages. As a result, the simulated and observed LGM winter cooling over Western Europe and the Mediterranean area are now in much better agreement.

  3. Detecting and Quantifying Paleoseasonality in Stalagmites using Geochemical and Modelling Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldini, J. U. L.

    2017-12-01

    Stalagmites are now well established sources of terrestrial paleoclimate information, providing insights into climate change on a variety of timescales. One of the most exciting aspects of stalagmites as climate archives is their ability to provide information regarding seasonality, a notoriously difficult component of climate change to characterise. However, stalagmite geochemistry may reflect not only the most apparent seasonal signal in external climate parameters, but also cave-specific signals such as seasonal changes in cave air carbon dioxide concentrations, sudden shifts in ventilation, and stochastic hydrological processes. Additionally, analytical bias may dampen or completely obfuscate any paleoseasonality, highlighting the need for appropriate quantification of this issue using simple models. Evidence from stalagmites now suggests that a seasonal signal is extractable from many samples, and that this signal can provide an important extra dimension to paleoclimate interpretations. Additionally, lower resolution annual- to decadal-scale isotope ratio records may also reflect shifts in seasonality, but identifying these is often challenging. Integrating geochemical datasets with models and cave monitoring data can greatly increase the accuracy of climate reconstructions, and yield the most robust records.

  4. Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Cook, Benjamin I.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.

    2011-01-01

    Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

  5. Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Luke Alexander

    Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

  6. Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011 analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009 for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP. Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011, and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

  7. A formational model for the polygonal terrains of Mars: Taking a crack at the genesis of the Martian polygons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenrich, M. L.; Christensen, P. R.

    1993-01-01

    The mechanism for the genesis of the polygonal terrains in Acidalia and Utopia Planitia has long been sought: however, no completely satisfying model was put forth that characterizes the evolution of these complexly patterned terrains. The polygons are roughly hexagonal but some are not entirely enclosed by fractures. These polygonal features range in widths from approximately 5 to 20 km. Several origins were proposed that describe the polygon borders as desiccation cracks, columnar jointing in a cooled lava, or frost-wedge features. These tension-induced cracking hypotheses were addressed by Pechmann, who convincingly disputes these mechanisms of formation based on scale magnitude difficulties and morphology. Pechmann suggests instead that the cracks delineating the 5-20-km-wide polygons on the northern plains of Mars are graben resulting from deep-seated, uniform, horizontal tension. The difficulty with this hypothesis is that no analogous polygonal forms are known to have originated by tectonism on Earth. McGill and Hills propose that the polygonal terrains on Mars resulted from either rapid desiccation of sediments or cooling of volcanics coupled with differential compaction of the material over a buried irregular topographic surface. They suggest that fracturing was enhanced over the areas of positive relief and was suppressed above the topographic lows. McGill and Hills suggest that the spacing of the topographic highs primarily controls the size of the Martian polygons and the physics of the shrinkage process is a secondary concern. Ray et. al. conducted a terrestrial study of patterned ground in periglacial areas of the U.S. to determine the process responsible for polygonal ground formation. They developed a model for polygon formation in which convection of seasonal melt water above a permafrost layer, driven by an unstable density stratification, differentially melts the permafrost interface, causing it to become undulatory.

  8. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide

    2017-01-01

    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  9. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  10. Carbon isotopes in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jahn

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Carbon isotopes in the ocean are frequently used as paleoclimate proxies and as present-day geochemical ocean tracers. In order to allow a more direct comparison of climate model results with this large and currently underutilized data set, we added a carbon isotope module to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM, containing the cycling of the stable isotope 13C and the radioactive isotope 14C. We implemented the 14C tracer in two ways: in the "abiotic" case, the 14C tracer is only subject to air–sea gas exchange, physical transport, and radioactive decay, while in the "biotic" version, the 14C additionally follows the 13C tracer through all biogeochemical and ecological processes. Thus, the abiotic 14C tracer can be run without the ecosystem module, requiring significantly fewer computational resources. The carbon isotope module calculates the carbon isotopic fractionation during gas exchange, photosynthesis, and calcium carbonate formation, while any subsequent biological process such as remineralization as well as any external inputs are assumed to occur without fractionation. Given the uncertainty associated with the biological fractionation during photosynthesis, we implemented and tested three parameterizations of different complexity. Compared to present-day observations, the model is able to simulate the oceanic 14C bomb uptake and the 13C Suess effect reasonably well compared to observations and other model studies. At the same time, the carbon isotopes reveal biases in the physical model, for example, too sluggish ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean.

  11. Carbon isotopes in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, A.; Lindsay, K.; Giraud, X.; Gruber, N.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Liu, Z.; Brady, E. C.

    2015-08-01

    Carbon isotopes in the ocean are frequently used as paleoclimate proxies and as present-day geochemical ocean tracers. In order to allow a more direct comparison of climate model results with this large and currently underutilized data set, we added a carbon isotope module to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), containing the cycling of the stable isotope 13C and the radioactive isotope 14C. We implemented the 14C tracer in two ways: in the "abiotic" case, the 14C tracer is only subject to air-sea gas exchange, physical transport, and radioactive decay, while in the "biotic" version, the 14C additionally follows the 13C tracer through all biogeochemical and ecological processes. Thus, the abiotic 14C tracer can be run without the ecosystem module, requiring significantly fewer computational resources. The carbon isotope module calculates the carbon isotopic fractionation during gas exchange, photosynthesis, and calcium carbonate formation, while any subsequent biological process such as remineralization as well as any external inputs are assumed to occur without fractionation. Given the uncertainty associated with the biological fractionation during photosynthesis, we implemented and tested three parameterizations of different complexity. Compared to present-day observations, the model is able to simulate the oceanic 14C bomb uptake and the 13C Suess effect reasonably well compared to observations and other model studies. At the same time, the carbon isotopes reveal biases in the physical model, for example, too sluggish ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean.

  12. IDRC “unpacks women's empowerment” at McGill University ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    14 mars 2018 ... Abonnez-vous à notre bulletin pour recevoir les nouvelles du CRDI chaque mois. Abonnez-vous · Droits d'auteur · Éthique de la recherche · Politique de libre accès · Politique de confidentialité · Transparence · Utilisation du site Web. Suivez-nous; Facebook · Twitter · Youtube · Linked In · RSS Feed.

  13. Stereotactic Fractionated Radiotherapy in the Treatment of Juxtapapillary Choroidal Melanoma: The McGill University Experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Wassia, Rolina; Dal Pra, Alan; Shun, Kitty; Shaban, Ahmed; Corriveau, Christine; Edelstein, Chaim; Deschenes, Jean; Ruo, Russel; Patrocinio, Horacio; Cury, Fabio L.B.; DeBlois, François; Shenouda, George

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To report our experience with linear accelerator-based stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy in the treatment of juxtapapillary choroidal melanoma. Methods and Materials: We performed a retrospective review of 50 consecutive patients diagnosed with juxtapapillary choroidal melanoma and treated with linear accelerator-based stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy between April 2003 and December 2009. Patients with small to medium sized lesions (Collaborative Ocular Melanoma Study classification) located within 2 mm of the optic disc were included. The prescribed radiation dose was 60 Gy in 10 fractions. The primary endpoints included local control, enucleation-free survival, and complication rates. Results: The median follow-up was 29 months (range, 1–77 months). There were 31 males and 29 females, with a median age of 69 years (range, 30–92 years). Eighty-four percent of the patients had medium sized lesions, and 16% of patients had small sized lesions. There were four cases of local progression (8%) and three enucleations (6%). Actuarial local control rates at 2 and 5 years were 93% and 86%, respectively. Actuarial enucleation-free survival rates at 2 and 5 years were 94% and 84%, respectively. Actuarial complication rates at 2 and 5 years were 33% and 88%, respectively, for radiation-induced retinopathy; 9.3% and 46.9%, respectively, for dry eye; 12% and 53%, respectively, for cataract; 30% and 90%, respectively, for visual loss [Snellen acuity (decimal equivalent), <0.1]; 11% and 54%, respectively, for optic neuropathy; and 18% and 38%, respectively, for neovascular glaucoma. Conclusions: Linear accelerator-based stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy using 60 Gy in 10 fractions is safe and has an acceptable toxicity profile. It has been shown to be an effective noninvasive treatment for juxtapapillary choroidal melanomas.

  14. Stereotactic Fractionated Radiotherapy in the Treatment of Juxtapapillary Choroidal Melanoma: The McGill University Experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Wassia, Rolina; Dal Pra, Alan; Shun, Kitty; Shaban, Ahmed [Department of Oncology, Division of Radiation Oncology, Montreal General Hospital, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Corriveau, Christine [Department of Ophthalmology, Notre Dame Hospital, Centre Hospitalier de l' Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Edelstein, Chaim; Deschenes, Jean [Department of Ophthalmology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Ruo, Russel; Patrocinio, Horacio [Department of Medical Physics, Montreal General Hospital, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Cury, Fabio L.B. [Department of Oncology, Division of Radiation Oncology, Montreal General Hospital, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); DeBlois, Francois [Department of Medical Physics, Jewish General Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Shenouda, George, E-mail: george.shenouda@muhc.mcgill.ca [Department of Oncology, Division of Radiation Oncology, Montreal General Hospital, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To report our experience with linear accelerator-based stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy in the treatment of juxtapapillary choroidal melanoma. Methods and Materials: We performed a retrospective review of 50 consecutive patients diagnosed with juxtapapillary choroidal melanoma and treated with linear accelerator-based stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy between April 2003 and December 2009. Patients with small to medium sized lesions (Collaborative Ocular Melanoma Study classification) located within 2 mm of the optic disc were included. The prescribed radiation dose was 60 Gy in 10 fractions. The primary endpoints included local control, enucleation-free survival, and complication rates. Results: The median follow-up was 29 months (range, 1-77 months). There were 31 males and 29 females, with a median age of 69 years (range, 30-92 years). Eighty-four percent of the patients had medium sized lesions, and 16% of patients had small sized lesions. There were four cases of local progression (8%) and three enucleations (6%). Actuarial local control rates at 2 and 5 years were 93% and 86%, respectively. Actuarial enucleation-free survival rates at 2 and 5 years were 94% and 84%, respectively. Actuarial complication rates at 2 and 5 years were 33% and 88%, respectively, for radiation-induced retinopathy; 9.3% and 46.9%, respectively, for dry eye; 12% and 53%, respectively, for cataract; 30% and 90%, respectively, for visual loss [Snellen acuity (decimal equivalent), <0.1]; 11% and 54%, respectively, for optic neuropathy; and 18% and 38%, respectively, for neovascular glaucoma. Conclusions: Linear accelerator-based stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy using 60 Gy in 10 fractions is safe and has an acceptable toxicity profile. It has been shown to be an effective noninvasive treatment for juxtapapillary choroidal melanomas.

  15. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  16. Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

    2017-12-01

    The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

  17. Reconstructing Climate Change: The Model-Data Ping-Pong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, T. F.

    2017-12-01

    When Cesare Emiliani, the father of paleoceanography, made the first attempts at a quantitative reconstruction of Pleistocene climate change in the early 1950s, climate models were not yet conceived. The understanding of paleoceanographic records was therefore limited, and scientists had to resort to plausibility arguments to interpret their data. With the advent of coupled climate models in the early 1970s, for the first time hypotheses about climate processes and climate change could be tested in a dynamically consistent framework. However, only a model hierarchy can cope with the long time scales and the multi-component physical-biogeochemical Earth System. There are many examples how climate models have inspired the interpretation of paleoclimate data on the one hand, and conversely, how data have questioned long-held concepts and models. In this lecture I critically revisit a few examples of this model-data ping-pong, such as the bipolar seesaw, the mid-Holocene greenhouse gas increase, millennial and rapid CO2 changes reconstructed from polar ice cores, and the interpretation of novel paleoceanographic tracers. These examples also highlight many of the still unsolved questions and provide guidance for future research. The combination of high-resolution paleoceanographic data and modeling has never been more relevant than today. It will be the key for an appropriate risk assessment of impacts on the Earth System that are already underway in the Anthropocene.

  18. Evidence for an Early-Middle Miocene age of the Navidad Formation (central Chile: Paleontological, paleoclimatic and tectonic implications Evidencias de una edad miocena temprana-media de la Formación Navidad: Implicancias paleontológicas, paleoclimáticas y tectónicas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Néstor M Gutiérrez

    2013-01-01

    éano Pacífico que en otras partes. Estos foraminíferos incluyen Globoturborotalia apertura, Globorotalia puncticulata (Deshayes, Globorotalia spheriomizea (Walters, Neogloboquadrinapachyderma (Ehrenberg, y Neogloboquadrina acostaensis (Blow. Una edad miocena temprana a mediana correlaciona bien con la reinterpretación del ambiente deposicional como una plataforma continental en vez de un talud continental con agua profunda, eventos paleoclimáticos reconocidos a escala global y regional, y el desarrollo tectónico de los Andes.

  19. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  20. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  1. Paleoclimatic implications of micromorphic features of a polygenetic soil in the Monegros Desert (NE-Spain Implicaciones paleoclimáticas de los rasgos micromorfológicos de un suelo policíclico en el Desierto de Monegros (NE-España Implicações paleoclimáticas das características micromorfológicas de um solo policíclico no Deserto de Monegros (NE-Espanha

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Badía

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Pedofeatures can be repositories of information about soil forming factors such as climate. The aim of this work is to provide a model of interpretation of a polygenetic soil in the Monegros desert (Ebro Basin, NE-Spain and its relationship to environmental changes during the Quaternary. To achieve this goal, the physical, chemical, mineralogical and especially the micromorphic pedofeatures of this profile were studied. Carbonate accumulations extend into all of the horizons of the profile. The paleosol has a thick petrocalcic horizon at the top, with a massive-laminar structure comprising layers of micrite and sparite that sometimes form pendants. Towards its base, the petrocalcic horizon contains a spaced framework of orthic micrite nodules packed between relatively pure micritic laminar bands. Below the petrocalcic horizon, coatings and infillings of microcrystalline calcite occur in old channels, and soft concretions (some of them geodic indicate an in situ accumulation process (Bkc, calcic horizon. Another calcic horizon with orthic nodules of calcite, impregnative and diffuse (Ckc, is present at the bottom part of the profile. Between the two nodular calcic horizons, two recarbonated argic horizons are found (Btkc and Btk with coarse orthic nodules of dense micrite superimposed on textural pedofeatures. These textural micromorphic pedofeatures are: (1 interbedded microlaminated clay pockets not associated with current or past pores and (2 microlaminated clay and silt (dusty clay present as weakly oriented coatings on channel walls. Reduction pedofeatures are associated with textural ones: (1 coatings of manganese oxides around pore channels and cracks, and (2 nodules of manganese and iron oxides within the peds. The presence of calcic horizons alternating with argic horizons, all positioned below the petrocalcic horizon, confirm fluctuations in paleohydrological conditions in the Pleistocene. Its presence indicates that the oldest soil

  2. Late Cenozoic Arctic Ocean sea ice and terrestrial paleoclimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, L.D.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Marincovich, L.; Pease, V.L.; Hillhouse, J.W.

    1986-01-01

    Sea otter remains found in deposits of two marine transgressions (Bigbendian and Fishcreekian) of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain which occurred between 2.4 and 3 Ma suggest that during these two events the southern limit of seasonal sea ice was at least 1600 km farther north than at present in Alaskan waters. Perennial sea ice must have been severely restricted or absent, and winters were warmer than at present during these two sea-level highstands. Paleomagnetic, faunal, and palynological data indicate that the later transgression (Fishcreekian) occurred during the early part of the Matuyama Reversed-Polarity Chron. -from Authors

  3. Paleoclimates of Amazonia: An ice-age view

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bush, M.B.; De Oliveira, P.E.; Raczka, M.F.; Gosling, W.D.; Mayle, F.E.; McMichael, C.H.; Urrego, D.H.; de Souza Carvalho, I.; Garcia, M.J.; Cunha Lana, C.; Strohschoen Jr., O.

    2014-01-01

    A growing body of evidence points to climatic complexity during the Ice-Ages. Amazonia does not respond uniformly to modern climatic forcing, and the same was true of the past. Although some climatic forcings were probably expressed everywhere, they were manifested differently. Consequently, climate

  4. An 8700 year paleoclimate reconstruction from the southern Maya lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, David B.; Byrne, Roger; Anderson, Lysanna

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of a sediment core from Lago Puerto Arturo, a closed basin lake in northern Peten, Guatemala, has provided an ∼8700 cal year record of climate change and human activity in the southern Maya lowlands. Stable isotope, magnetic susceptibility, and pollen analyses were used to reconstruct environmental change in the region. Results indicate a relatively wet early to middle Holocene followed by a drier late Holocene, which we interpret as reflecting long-term changes in insolation (precession). Higher frequency variability is more likely attributable to changes in ocean/atmosphere circulation in both the North Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Pollen and isotope data show that most of the period of prehispanic agricultural settlement, i.e. ∼5000–1000 cal yr BP, was characterized by drier conditions than previous or subsequent periods. The presence ofZea (corn) pollen through peak aridity during the Terminal Classic period (∼1250–1130 cal yr BP) suggests that drought may not have had as negative an impact as previously proposed. A dramatic negative shift in isotope values indicates an increase in precipitation after ∼950 cal yr BP (hereafter BP).

  5. Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMichael Anthony J

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century ad. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change. See research article http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/112

  6. Age, growth rates, and paleoclimate studies of deep sea corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prouty, Nancy G; Roark, E. Brendan; Andrews, Allen; Robinson, Laura; Hill, Tessa; Sherwood, Owen; Williams, Branwen; Guilderson, Thomas P.; Fallon, Stewart

    2015-01-01

    Deep-water corals are some of the slowest growing, longest-lived skeletal accreting marine organisms. These habitat-forming species support diverse faunal assemblages that include commercially and ecologically important organisms. Therefore, effective management and conservation strategies for deep-sea corals can be informed by precise and accurate age, growth rate, and lifespan characteristics for proper assessment of vulnerability and recovery from perturbations. This is especially true for the small number of commercially valuable, and potentially endangered, species that are part of the black and precious coral fisheries (Tsounis et al. 2010). In addition to evaluating time scales of recovery from disturbance or exploitation, accurate age and growth estimates are essential for understanding the life history and ecology of these habitat-forming corals. Given that longevity is a key factor for population maintenance and fishery sustainability, partly due to limited and complex genetic flow among coral populations separated by great distances, accurate age structure for these deep-sea coral communities is essential for proper, long-term resource management.

  7. Devon island ice cap: core stratigraphy and paleoclimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, R M

    1977-04-01

    Valuable paleoclimatic information can be gained by studying the distribution of melt layers in deep ice cores. A profile representing the percentage of ice in melt layers in a core drilled from the Devon Island ice cap plotted against both time and depth shows that the ice cap has experienced a period of very warm summers since 1925, following a period of colder summers between about 1600 and 1925. The earlier period was coldest between 1680 and 1730. There is a high correlation between the melt-layer ice percentage and the mass balance of the ice cap. The relation between them suggests that the ice cap mass balance was zero (accumulation equaled ablation) during the colder period but is negative in the present warmer one. There is no firm evidence of a present cooling trend in the summer conditions on the ice cap. A comparison with the melt-layer ice percentage in cores from the other major Canadian Arctic ice caps shows that the variation of summer conditions found for the Devon Island ice cap is representative for all the large ice caps for about 90 percent of the time. There is also a good correlation between melt-layer percentage and summer sea-ice conditions in the archipelago. This suggests that the search for the northwest passage was influenced by changing climate, with the 19th-century peak of the often tragic exploration coinciding with a period of very cold summers.

  8. TSPA Model for the Yucca Mountain Unsaturated Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.L. Wilson; C.K. Ho

    2001-01-01

    Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being considered as a potential site for a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. Total-system performance-assessment (TSPA) calculations are performed to evaluate the safety of the site. Such calculations require submodels for all important engineered and natural components of the disposal system. There are five submodels related to the unsaturated zone: climate, infiltration, mountain-scale flow of water, seepage into emplacement drifts, and radionuclide transport. For each of these areas, models have been developed and implemented for use in TSPA. The climate model is very simple (a set of climate states have been deduced from paleoclimate data, and the times when climate changes occur in the future have been estimated), but the other four models make use of complex process models involving time-consuming computer runs. An important goal is to evaluate the impact of uncertainties (e.g., incomplete knowledge of the site) on the estimates of potential repository performance, so particular attention is given to the key uncertainties for each area. Uncertainties in climate, infiltration, and mountain-scale flow are represented in TSPA simulations by means of discrete high, medium, and low cases, Uncertainties in seepage and radionuclide transport are represented by means of continuous probability distributions for several key parameters

  9. Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gibson EJ

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available EJ Gibson,1 N Begum,1 I Koblbauer,1 G Dranitsaris,2 D Liew,3 P McEwan,4 AA Tahami Monfared,5,6 Y Yuan,7 A Juarez-Garcia,7 D Tyas,8 M Lees9 1Wickenstones Ltd, Didcot, UK; 2Augmentium Pharma Consulting Inc, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; 4Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK; 5Bristol-Myers Squibb Canada, Saint-Laurent, QC Canada; 6Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; 7Bristol-Myers Squibb, Princeton, NJ, USA; 8Bristol-Myers Squibb, Uxbridge, UK; 9Bristol-Myers Squibb, Rueil-Malmaison, France Background: Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. Materials and methods: This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs. Results: The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%. Conclusion: Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models

  10. Flexible climate modeling systems: Lessons from Snowball Earth, Titan and Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrehumbert, R. T.

    2007-12-01

    Climate models are only useful to the extent that real understanding can be extracted from them. Most leading- edge problems in climate change, paleoclimate and planetary climate require a high degree of flexibility in terms of incorporating model physics -- for example in allowing methane or CO2 to be a condensible substance instead of water vapor. This puts a premium on model design that allows easy modification, and on physical parameterizations that are close to fundamentals with as little empirical ad-hoc formulation as possible. I will provide examples from two approaches to this problem we have been using at the University of Chicago. The first is the FOAM general circulation model, which is a clean single-executable Fortran-77/c code supported by auxiliary applications in Python and Java. The second is a new approach based on using Python as a shell for assembling building blocks in compiled-code into full models. Applications to Snowball Earth, Titan and Mars, as well as pedagogical uses, will be discussed. One painful lesson we have learned is that Fortran-95 is a major impediment to portability and cross-language interoperability; in this light the trend toward Fortran-95 in major modelling groups is seen as a significant step backwards. In this talk, I will focus on modeling projects employing a full representation of atmospheric fluid dynamics, rather than "intermediate complexity" models in which the associated transports are parameterized.

  11. Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

    2013-01-17

    The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physically and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.

  12. Experimental and model-based analysis of differences in perception of cutaneous electrical stimulation across the sole of the foot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frahm, Ken Steffen; Mørch, Carsten Dahl; Grill, Warren M; Andersen, Ole Kæseler

    2013-09-01

    During electrocutaneous stimulations, variation in skin properties across locations can lead to differences in neural activation. However, little focus has been given to the effect of different skin thicknesses on neural activation. Electrical stimulation was applied to six sites across the sole of the foot. The intensities used were two and four times perception threshold. The subjects (n = 8) rated the perception quality and intensity using the McGill Pain Questionnaire and a visual analog scale (VAS). A finite element model was developed and combined with the activation function (AF) to estimate neural activation. Electrical stimulation was perceived as significantly less sharp at the heel compared to all other sites, except one site in the forefoot (logistic regression, p model showed that the AF was between 91 and 231 % higher at the five other sites than at the heel. The differences in perception across the sole of the foot indicated that the CNS received different inputs depending on the stimulus site. The lower AF at the heel indicated that the skin thicknesses could contribute to the perceived differences.

  13. Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

    2017-12-01

    Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

  14. How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

  15. Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the

  16. A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA climate model and control run

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Osprey

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approximately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using current high performance computing facilities. It uses most of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FAMOUS is useful for climate simulations where the computational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, either because of the length of simulation or the size of the ensemble desired. We document a number of scientific and technical improvements to the original version of FAMOUS. These improvements include changes to the parameterisations of ozone and sea-ice which alleviate a significant cold bias from high northern latitudes and the upper troposphere, and the elimination of volume-averaged drifts in ocean tracers. A simple model of the marine carbon cycle has also been included. A particular goal of FAMOUS is to conduct millennial-scale paleoclimate simulations of Quaternary ice ages; to this end, a number of useful changes to the model infrastructure have been made.

  17. Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

    2008-12-01

    The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

  18. Reconstructing a lost Eocene Paradise, Part II: On the utility of dynamic global vegetation models in pre-Quaternary climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, Cindy J.; Sloan, Lisa C.

    2006-02-01

    Models that allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate provide a unique method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in pre-Quaternary time periods. In this paper, we consider how Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), which have been developed for simulations with present day climate, can be used for paleoclimate studies. We begin with a series of tests in the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM)-DGVM with Eocene geography to examine (1) the effect of removing C 4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO 2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. The tests were designed to highlight some of the challenges of using these models and prompt discussion of possible improvements. We discuss how lack of detail in model boundary conditions, uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, and inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM can affect interpretation of model results. However, we also review a number of DGVM features that can facilitate understanding of past climates and offer suggestions for improving paleo-DGVM studies.

  19. Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marti, Olivier; Braconnot, P.; Bellier, J.; Brockmann, P.; Caubel, A.; Noblet, N. de; Friedlingstein, P.; Idelkadi, A.; Kageyama, M. [Unite Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Codron, F.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Musat, I. [Unite Mixte CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique-ENS-UPCM, IPSL/LMD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Benshila, R.; Guilyardi, E.; Levy, C.; Madec, G.; Mignot, J.; Talandier, C. [unite mixte CNRS-IRD-UPMC, IPLS/LOCEAN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Cadule, P.; Denvil, S.; Foujols, M.A. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des Sciences de l' Environnement (IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Krinner, G. [Unite mixte CNRS-UJF Grenoble, LGGE, BP96, Saint-Martin-d' Heres (France); Swingedouw, D. [CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse (France)

    2010-01-15

    This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Nino-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged. (orig.)

  20. Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.

    2006-12-01

    One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.

  1. Educational Expansion or Credential Inflation? The Evolution of Part-Time Study by Adults at McGill University, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Scott; Rollwagen, Heather

    2010-01-01

    Part-time students have accounted for a significant proportion of rising participation in higher education in many countries. The objectives of this paper are to enrich the empirical literature concerning the inclusion of part-time adult learners in higher education, and to assess the two competing theoretical frameworks that have emerged to…

  2. Content validation of a Danish version of "The McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment" for dysphagia management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Tina; Lambert, H.C.; Faber, J.

    2011-01-01

    of 43 items was found for 93% in terms of adequacy, 67% in terms of clarity of item description, 86% in terms of clarity of score descriptions, and 93% in terms of relevance. Thirteen of 14 sections of the instruction manual and score sheet were content valid. In light of these results, a revised MISA...... for psychometric testing using classical as well as modern test theory. Read More: http://informahealthcare.com/doi/abs/10.3109/11038128.2010.521949...

  3. Using vegetation model-to-data comparisons to test the role of abiotic factors in the Neogene and Quaternary origins of modern C4 grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, D. L.; Strömberg, C.; Pau, S.; Taylor, L.; Lehmann, C.; Osborne, C.; Beerling, D. J.; Still, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    Grasslands dominated by taxa using the C4 photosynthetic pathway evolved on several continents during the Neogene and Quaternary, long after C4 photosynthesis first evolved among grasses. The histories of these ecosystems are relatively well documented in the geological record from stable carbon isotopes (fossil vertebrate herbivores, paleosols) and the plant microfossil record (pollen, phytoliths). The distinct biogeography and ecophysiology of modern C3 and C4 grasses have led to hypotheses explaining the origins of C4 grasslands in terms of long term changes in the Earth system such as increased aridity and decreasing atmospheric pCO2. However, proxies for key parameters of these hypotheses (e.g., temperature, precipitation, pCO2) are still in development, not yet widely applied, or remain contentious, so testing the hypotheses globally remains difficult. To understand better possible links between changes in the Earth system and the origin of C4 grasslands on different continents, we are undertaking a global scale comparison between observational records of C4 grass abundances in Miocene and Pliocene localities compiled from the literature, and three increasingly complex models of C4 dominance and abundance. The literature compilation comprises >2,600 δ13C values of both fossil vertebrates and of paleosol carbonates and >6,700 paleobotanical records. We are using paleoclimate output from the HadCM3L GCM over a range of pCO2 values for each epoch to model C4 dominance or abundance in grid cells as (Model 1) months per year exceeding the temperature at which net assimilation is greater for C4 than C3 photosynthesis (crossover temperature); (Model 2) the number of months per year exceeding the crossover temperature and having sufficient precipitation for growth (≥25 cm/yr; Collatz model); and (Model 3) the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM), output from which includes biomass (g C/m2/yr) for distinct structural components (roots, stems, leaves

  4. Southern Arizona hydroclimate over the last 3000 years: a comparison of speleothem elemental data and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, J.; Harrington, M. D.; Cole, J. E.; Drysdale, R.; Woodhead, J. D.; Fasullo, J.; Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Edwards, R. L.; Henderson, G. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding long-term hydroclimate is particularly important in semiarid regions where prolonged droughts may be exacerbated by a warming climate. In many regions, speleothem trace elements correlate with regional wet and dry climate signals. In the drought-prone Southwestern US (SW), wet and dry episodes are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and teleconnections to remote forcing. Here, we address the need for seasonal moisture reconstructions using paleoclimate and climate model approaches. First, we present a high-resolution (sub-annual) record of speleothem trace elements spanning the last 3000 years from Fort Huachuca Cave, AZ, to investigate the variability of regional seasonal precipitation and sustained regional droughts. In a principal component (PC) analysis of the speleothem, trace elements associated with wet (Sr, Ba) and dry (P, Y, Zn) episodes load strongly and inversely, and the associated PC signals correlate with local gridded precipitation data over the last 50 years (R > 0.6, p external forcings, including volcanic eruptions, in both the speleothem record and the Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Notably, ENSO and volcanic forcing have a discernable effect on SW seasonal precipitation in model simulations, particularly when the two processes combine to shift the position of the ITCZ. This integrated analysis of paleodata with climate model results will help us identify and explain discrepancies between these information sources and improve stakeholders' ability to anticipate and prepare for future drought.

  5. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  6. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles reconstruct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2013-03-01

    Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (21 k). This direct method was then compared to the earlier indirect method, which categorizes the underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applied to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 k showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map, although the soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity among the models partly due to varying complexity of the implemented subsurface processes. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the multi-model analysis was 25.6 million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 12.7 million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally, frozen ground increased from 22.5 million km2 to 32.6 million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble-improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology-also compared better to previous knowledge derived from the geomorphological and geocryological evidences. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of the functionality and variability of the frozen ground subsystem in the global eco-climate system.

  7. A simple model for variations in global mean temperature: implications for decadal variability, the global warming hiatus, and recent temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.

  8. An overview of the Yucca Mountain Global/Regional Climate Modeling Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandoval, R.P.; Behl, Y.K.; Thompson, S.L.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a site characterization plan (SCP) to collect detailed information on geology, geohydrology, geochemistry, geoengineering, hydrology, climate, and meteorology (collectively referred to as ''geologic information'') of the Yucca Mountain site. This information will be used to determine if a mined geologic disposal system (MGDS) capable of isolating high-level radioactive waste without adverse effects to public health and safety over 10,000 years, as required by regulations 40 CFR Part 191 and 10 CFR Part 60, could be constructed at the Yucca Mountain site. Forecasts of future climates conditions for the Yucca Mountain area will be based on both empirical and numerical techniques. The empirical modeling is based on the assumption that future climate change will follow past patterns. In this approach, paleclimate records will be analyzed to estimate the nature, timing, and probability of occurrence of certain climate states such as glacials and interglacials over the next 10,000 years. For a given state, key climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature will be assumed to be the same as determined from the paleoclimate data. The numerical approach, which is the primary focus of this paper, involves the numerical solution of basic equations associated with atmospheric motions. This paper describes these equations and the strategy for solving them to predict future climate conditions around Yucca Mountain

  9. Isotope effects in the evaporation of water: a status report of the Craig-Gordon model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horita, Juske; Rozanski, Kazimierz; Cohen, Shabtai

    2008-03-01

    The Craig-Gordon model (C-G model) [H. Craig, L.I. Gordon. Deuterium and oxygen 18 variations in the ocean and the marine atmosphere. In Stable Isotopes in Oceanographic Studies and Paleotemperatures, E. Tongiorgi (Ed.), pp. 9-130, Laboratorio di Geologia Nucleare, Pisa (1965).] has been synonymous with the isotope effects associated with the evaporation of water from surface waters, soils, and vegetations, which in turn constitutes a critical component of the global water cycle. On the occasion of the four decades of its successful applications to isotope geochemistry and hydrology, an attempt is made to: (a) examine its physical background within the framework of modern evaporation models, (b) evaluate our current knowledge of the environmental parameters of the C-G model, and (c) comment on a general strategy for the use of these parameters in field applications. Despite its simplistic representation of evaporation processes at the water-air interface, the C-G model appears to be adequate to provide the isotopic composition of the evaporation flux. This is largely due to its nature for representing isotopic compositions (a ratio of two fluxes of different isotopic water molecules) under the same environmental conditions. Among many environmental parameters that are included in the C-G model, accurate description and calculations are still problematic of the kinetic isotope effects that occur in a diffusion-dominated thin layer of air next to the water-air interface. In field applications, it is of importance to accurately evaluate several environmental parameters, particularly the relative humidity and isotopic compositions of the 'free-atmosphere', for a system under investigation over a given time-scale of interest (e.g., hourly to daily to seasonally). With a growing interest in the studies of water cycles of different spatial and temporal scales, including paleoclimate and water resource studies, the importance and utility of the C-G model is also likely to

  10. An Ice Model That is Consistent with Composite Rheology in GIA Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P.; Patrick, W.

    2017-12-01

    There are several popular approaches in constructing ice history models. One of them is mainly based on thermo-mechanical ice models with forcing or boundary conditions inferred from paleoclimate data. The second one is mainly based on the observed response of the Earth to glacial loading and unloading, a process called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment or GIA. The third approach is a hybrid version of the first and second approaches. In this presentation, we will follow the second approach which also uses geological data such as ice flow, terminal moraine data and simple ice dynamic for the ice sheet re-construction (Peltier & Andrew 1976). The global ice model ICE-6G (Peltier et al. 2015) and all its predecessors (Tushingham & Peltier 1991, Peltier 1994, 1996, 2004, Lambeck et al. 2014) are constructed this way with the assumption that mantle rheology is linear. However, high temperature creep experiments on mantle rocks show that non-linear creep laws can also operate in the mantle. Since both linear (e.g. diffusion creep) and non-linear (e.g. dislocation) creep laws can operate simultaneously in the mantle, mantle rheology is likely composite, where the total creep is the sum of both linear and onlinear creep. Preliminary GIA studies found that composite rheology can fit regional RSL observations better than that from linear rheology(e.g. van der Wal et al. 2010). The aim of this paper is to construct ice models in Laurentia and Fennoscandia using this second approach, but with composite rheology, so that its predictions can fit GIA observations such as global RSL data, land uplift rate and g-dot simultaneously in addition to geological data and simple ice dynamics. The g-dot or gravity-rate-of-change data is from the GRACE gravity mission but with the effects of hydrology removed. Our GIA model is based on the Coupled Laplace-Finite Element method as described in Wu(2004) and van der Wal et al.(2010). It is found that composite rheology generally supports a thicker

  11. Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. H. Stagge; D. E. Rosenberg; R. J. DeRose; T. M. Rittenour

    2018-01-01

    Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually...

  12. Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Holmgren

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

  13. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  14. Numerical Modeling of Rocky Mountain Paleoglaciers - Insights into the Climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Subsequent Deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Numerical modeling of paleoglaciers can yield information on the climatic conditions necessary to sustain those glaciers. In this study we apply a coupled 2-d mass/energy balance and flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) to reconstruct local last glacial maximum (LLGM) glaciers and paleoclimate in ten study areas along the crest of the U.S. Rocky Mountains between 33°N and 49°N. In some of the areas, where timing of post-LLGM ice recession is constrained by surface exposure ages on either polished bedrock upvalley from the LLGM moraines or post-LLGM recessional moraines, we use the model to assess magnitudes and rates of climate change during deglaciation. The modeling reveals a complex pattern of LLGM climate. The magnitude of LLGM-to-modern climate change (temperature and/or precipitation change) was greater in both the northern (Montana) Rocky Mountains and southern (New Mexico) Rocky Mountains than in the middle (Wyoming and Colorado) Rocky Mountains. We use temperature depression estimates from global and regional climate models to infer LLGM precipitation from our glacier model results. Our results suggest a reduction of precipitation coupled with strongly depressed temperatures in the north, contrasted with strongly enhanced precipitation and much more modest temperature depression in the south. The middle Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming appear to have experienced a reduction in precipitation at the LLGM without the strong temperature depression of the northern Rocky Mountains. Preliminary work on modeling of deglaciation in the Sangre de Cristo Range in southern Colorado suggests that approximately half of the LLGM-to-modern climate change took place during the initial ~2400 years of deglaciation. If increasing temperature and changing solar insolation were the sole drivers of this initial deglaciation, then temperature would need to have risen by slightly more than 1°C/ky through this interval to account for the observed rate of ice recession.

  15. Quantitative Hydraulic Models Of Early Land Plants Provide Insight Into Middle Paleozoic Terrestrial Paleoenvironmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. P.; Fischer, W. W.

    2010-12-01

    humidity (25°C) could cause sufficient cavitation to reduce hydraulic conductivity by 50%. This suggests that the Early Devonian environments that supported the earliest vascular plants were not subject to prolonged midseason droughts, or, alternatively, that the growing season was short. This places minimum constraints on water availability (e.g., groundwater hydration, relative humidity) in locations where Asteroxylon fossils are found; these environments must have had high relative humidities, comparable to tropical riparian environments. Given these constraints, biome-scale paleovegetation models that place early vascular plants distal to water sources can be revised to account for reduced drought tolerance. Paleoclimate proxies that treat early terrestrial plants as functionally interchangeable can incorporate physiological differences in a quantitatively meaningful way. Application of hydraulic models to fossil plants provides an additional perspective on the 475 million-year history of terrestrial photosynthetic environments and has potential to corroborate other plant-based paleoclimate proxies.

  16. Diet-induced metabolic hamster model of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhathena J

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Jasmine Bhathena, Arun Kulamarva, Christopher Martoni, Aleksandra Malgorzata Urbanska, Meenakshi Malhotra, Arghya Paul, Satya PrakashBiomedical Technology and Cell Therapy Research Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Artificial Cells and Organs Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Québec, CanadaBackground: Obesity, hypercholesterolemia, elevated triglycerides, and type 2 diabetes are major risk factors for metabolic syndrome. Hamsters, unlike rats or mice, respond well to diet-induced obesity, increase body mass and adiposity on group housing, and increase food intake due to social confrontation-induced stress. They have a cardiovascular and hepatic system similar to that of humans, and can thus be a useful model for human pathophysiology.Methods: Experiments were planned to develop a diet-induced Bio F1B Golden Syrian hamster model of dyslipidemia and associated nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the metabolic syndrome. Hamsters were fed a normal control diet, a high-fat/high-cholesterol diet, a high-fat/high-cholesterol/methionine-deficient/choline-devoid diet, and a high-fat/high-cholesterol/choline-deficient diet. Serum total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, atherogenic index, and body weight were quantified biweekly. Fat deposition in the liver was observed and assessed following lipid staining with hematoxylin and eosin and with oil red O.Results: In this study, we established a diet-induced Bio F1B Golden Syrian hamster model for studying dyslipidemia and associated nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the metabolic syndrome. Hyperlipidemia and elevated serum glucose concentrations were induced using this diet. Atherogenic index was elevated, increasing the risk for a cardiovascular event. Histological analysis of liver specimens at the end of four weeks showed increased fat deposition in the liver of animals fed

  17. Modeling the imprint of Milankovitch cycles on early Pleistocene ice volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roychowdhury, R.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate during Quaternary and Late Pliocene (present-3.1 Ma) is characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial conditions. Several proposed theories associate these cycles with variations in the Earth's orbital configuration. In this study, we attempt to address the anomalously strong obliquity forcing in the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene ice volume records (41 kyr world), which stands in sharp contrast to the primary cyclicity of insolation, which is at precessional periods (23 kyr). Model results from GCM simulations show that at low eccentricities (e0.015), precessional response is important, and the insolation metrics vary out-of-phase between the two hemispheres. Using simulations from a GCM-driven ice sheet model, we simulate time continuous ice volume changes from Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Under eccentricities lower than 0.015, ice sheets in both hemispheres respond only to obliquity cycle, and grow and melt together (in-phase). If the ice sheet is simulated with eccentricity higher than 0.015, both hemispheres become more sensitive to precessional variation, and vary out-of-phase with each other, which is consistent with proxy observations from the late Pleistocene glaciations. We use the simulated ice volumes from 2.0 to 1.0 ma to empirically calculate global benthic δ18O variations based on the assumption that relationships between collapse and growth of ice-sheets and sea level is linear and symmetric and that the isotopic signature of the individual ice-sheets has not changed with time. Our modeled global benthic δ18O values are broadly consistent with the paleoclimate proxy records such as the LR04 stack.

  18. A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, E.C. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Ralph; Weinelt, M. [Christian-Albrechts Universitaet, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Kucera, M. [Eberhard-Karls Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Tuebingen (Germany); Abe-Ouchi, A. [The University of Tokyo, Center for Climate System Research, Kashiwa (Japan); Bard, E. [CEREGE, College de France, CNRS, Universite Aix-Marseille, Aix-en-Provence (France); Braconnot, P.; Kageyama, M.; Marti, O.; Waelbroeck, C. [Unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crucifix, M. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Paul, A. [Bremen University, Department of Geosciences, Bremen (Germany); Rosell-Mele, A. [Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, ICREA and Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals, Barcelona (Spain); Weber, S.L. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands); Yu, Y. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2009-05-15

    Results from multiple model simulations are used to understand the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to the reduced greenhouse gas concentrations and large continental ice sheets of the last glacial maximum (LGM). We present LGM simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PMIP2) and compare these simulations to proxy data collated and harmonized within the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface Project (MARGO). Five atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models (AOGCMs) and one coupled model of intermediate complexity have PMIP2 ocean results available for LGM. The models give a range of tropical (defined for this paper as 15 S-15 N) SST cooling of 1.0-2.4 C, comparable to the MARGO estimate of annual cooling of 1.7{+-}1 C. The models simulate greater SST cooling in the tropical Atlantic than tropical Pacific, but interbasin and intrabasin variations of cooling are much smaller than those found in the MARGO reconstruction. The simulated tropical coolings are relatively insensitive to season, a feature also present in the MARGO transferred-based estimates calculated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages for the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These assemblages indicate seasonality in cooling in the Atlantic basin, with greater cooling in northern summer than northern winter, not captured by the model simulations. Biases in the simulations of the tropical upwelling and thermocline found in the preindustrial control simulations remain for the LGM simulations and are partly responsible for the more homogeneous spatial and temporal LGM tropical cooling simulated by the models. The PMIP2 LGM simulations give estimates for the climate sensitivity parameter of 0.67 -0.83 C per Wm{sup -2}, which translates to equilibrium climate sensitivity for doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} of 2.6-3.1 C. (orig.)

  19. The Last Millennium Reanalysis: Improvements to proxies and proxy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardif, R.; Hakim, G. J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Anderson, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) approach to produce climate field reconstructions (CFRs). Here, we focus on two key factors in PDA generated CFRs: the set of assimilated proxy records and forward models (FMs) used to estimate proxies from climate model output. In the initial configuration of the LMR [Hakim et al., 2016], the proxy dataset of [PAGES2k Consortium, 2013] was used, along with univariate linear FMs calibrated against annually-averaged 20th century temperature datasets. In an updated configuration, proxy records from the recent dataset [PAGES2k Consortium, 2017] are used, while a hierarchy of statistical FMs are tested: (1) univariate calibrated on annual temperature as in the initial configuration, (2) univariate against temperature as in (1) but calibration performed using expert-derived seasonality for individual proxy records, (3) as in (2) but expert proxy seasonality replaced by seasonal averaging determined objectively as part of the calibration process, (4) linear objective seasonal FMs as in (3) but objectively selecting relationships calibrated either on temperature or precipitation, and (5) bivariate linear models calibrated on temperature and precipitation with objectively-derived seasonality. (4) and (5) specifically aim at better representing the physical drivers of tree ring width proxies. Reconstructions generated using the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an uninformed prior are evaluated against various 20th century data products. Results show the benefits of using the new proxy collection, particularly on the detrended global mean temperature and spatial patterns. The positive impact of using proper seasonality and temperature/moisture sensitivities for tree ring width records is also notable. This updated configuration will be used for the first generation of LMR-generated CFRs to be publicly released. These also provide a benchmark for future efforts aimed at evaluating the

  20. Cultural consultation as a model for training multidisciplinary mental healthcare professionals in cultural competence skills: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owiti, J A; Ajaz, A; Ascoli, M; de Jongh, B; Palinski, A; Bhui, K S

    2014-01-01

    Lack of cultural competence in care contributes to poor experiences and outcomes from care for migrants and racial and ethnic minorities. As a result, health and social care organizations currently promote cultural competence of their workforce as a means of addressing persistent poor experiences and outcomes. At present, there are unsystematic and diverse ways of promoting cultural competence, and their impact on clinician skills and patient outcomes is unknown. We developed and implemented an innovative model, cultural consultation service (CCS), to promote cultural competence of clinicians and directly improve on patient experiences and outcomes from care. CCS model is an adaptation of the McGill model, which uses ethnographic methodology and medical anthropological knowledge. The method and approach not only contributes both to a broader conceptual and dynamic understanding of culture, but also to learning of cultural competence skills by healthcare professionals. The CCS model demonstrates that multidisciplinary workforce can acquire cultural competence skills better through the clinical encounter, as this promotes integration of learning into day-to-day practice. Results indicate that clinicians developed a broader and patient-centred understanding of culture, and gained skills in narrative-based assessment method, management of complexity of care, competing assumptions and expectations, and clinical cultural formulation. Cultural competence is defined as a set of skills, attitudes and practices that enable the healthcare professionals to deliver high-quality interventions to patients from diverse cultural backgrounds. Improving on the cultural competence skills of the workforce has been promoted as a way of reducing ethnic and racial inequalities in service outcomes. Currently, diverse models for training in cultural competence exist, mostly with no evidence of effect. We established an innovative narrative-based cultural consultation service in an inner

  1. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  2. Derivation and validation of a multivariable model to predict when primary care physicians prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong J

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Jenna Wong, Michal Abrahamowicz, David L Buckeridge, Robyn Tamblyn Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada Objective: Physicians commonly prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression that are not evidence-based and need further evaluation. However, lack of routinely documented treatment indications for medications in administrative and medical databases creates a major barrier to evaluating antidepressant use for indications besides depression. Thus, the aim of this study was to derive a model to predict when primary care physicians prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression and to identify important determinants of this prescribing practice. Methods: Prediction study using antidepressant prescriptions from January 2003–December 2012 in an indication-based electronic prescribing system in Quebec, Canada. Patients were linked to demographic files, medical billings data, and hospital discharge summary data to create over 370 candidate predictors. The final prediction model was derived on a random 75% sample of the data using 3-fold cross-validation integrated within a score-based forward stepwise selection procedure. The performance of the final model was assessed in the remaining 25% of the data. Results: Among 73,576 antidepressant prescriptions, 32,405 (44.0% were written for indications other than depression. Among 40 predictors in the final model, the most important covariates included the molecule name, the patient’s education level, the physician’s workload, the prescribed dose, and diagnostic codes for plausible indications recorded in the past year. The final model had good discrimination (concordance (c statistic 0.815; 95% CI, 0.787–0.847 and good calibration (ratio of observed to expected events 0.986; 95% CI, 0.842–1.136. Conclusion: In the absence of documented treatment indications, researchers may be able to use

  3. Development and Pilot Evaluation of a Novel Dignity-Conserving End-of-Life (EoL) Care Model for Nursing Homes in Chinese Societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Andy H Y; Dai, Annie A N; Lam, Shu-Hang; Wong, Sandy W P; Tsui, Amy L M; Tang, Jervis C S; Lou, Vivian W Q

    2016-06-01

    The provision of end-of-life (EoL) care in long-term-care settings remains largely underdeveloped in most Chinese societies, and nursing home residents often fail to obtain good care as they approach death. This paper systematically describes the development and implementation mechanisms of a novel Dignity-Conserving EoL Care model that has been successfully adopted by three nursing homes in Hong Kong and presents preliminary evidence of its effectiveness on enhancing dignity and quality of life (QoL) of terminally ill residents. Nine terminally ill nursing home residents completed the McGill Quality of Life Questionnaire and the Nursing Facilities Quality of Life Questionnaire at baseline and 6 months post-EoL program enrollment. Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to detect significance changes in each QoL domains across time. Although significant deterioration was recorded for physical QoL, significant improvement was observed for social QoL. Moreover, a clear trend toward significant improvements was identified for the QoL domains of individuality and relationships. A holistic and compassionate caring environment, together with the core principles of family-centered care, interagency and interdisciplinary teamwork, as well as cultural-specific psycho-socio-spiritual support, are all essential elements for optimizing QoL and promoting death with dignity for nursing home residents facing morality. This study provides a useful framework to facilitate the future development of EoL care in long-term-care settings in the Chinese context. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Model of Team Organization and Behavior and Team Description Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-10-01

    PERFORMING ORG& REPORT’ NUMBER 7.AUTHIOR(&) 0. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMOSR(ej J. Thomas Roth Rohn J. Hritz HDA 903-81-C-0198: VEa Donald W. McGill 9...team descriptions are included, acid procedures for data recording are provided. 4q-4 4 iv, G OP S• . . • ,," $1 . . ’ __ _ _ _ ’ / . • , Utilization...Listing of thi! number acid identification of the roles adopted by team members in the actual team structure, along with KOS and primary equipment

  5. Optical fiber communication systems with Matlab and Simulink models

    CERN Document Server

    Binh, Le Nguyen

    2014-01-01

    ""This book adds an aspect of programming and simulation not so well developed in other books. It is complete in this sense and enables directly linking the physics of optical components and systems to realistic results.""-Martin Rochette, Associate Professor, McGill University, Quebec, Canada""…this will be an excellent textbook since it has all new development and information on optical communication systems…I think this book can easily replace many other textbooks in this field.""-Massoud Moussavi, California State Polytechnic University-Pomona""The book is well written. It describes the fu

  6. INTEGRATED GEOLOGIC-ENGINEERING MODEL FOR REEF AND CARBONATE SHOAL RESERVOIRS ASSOCIATED WITH PALEOHIGHS: UPPER JURASSIC SMACKOVER FORMATION, NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ernest A. Mancini

    2002-09-25

    The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization and modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 2 of the project has been reservoir characterization, 3-D modeling and technology transfer. This effort has included six tasks: (1) the study of rockfluid interactions, (2) petrophysical and engineering characterization, (3) data integration, (4) 3-D geologic modeling, (5) 3-D reservoir simulation and (6) technology transfer. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 2. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions is near completion. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and

  7. Monitoring the formation of clastic-biogenic varves to improve the quality of paleoclimate reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojala, A.; Kosonen, E.; Weckstrom, J.; Korkonen, S.

    2013-12-01

    Annually laminated (varved) sediments are excellent archives for studies of past climate and environmental changes, as they allow analysis of the undisturbed 'in-situ' sediment composition and structure with a seasonal-scale resolution. Among those, clastic-biogenic varved lake sediments have been found and investigated in Finland and Sweden during the last decades. An important prerequisite for applying varved sediments in palaeoenvironmental studies is understanding the mechanism of rhythmic sedimentation and the composition of different laminae representing annual sedimentation events. This knowledge is essential for verifying the annual nature of varves, for investigating the main factors controlling seasonal sedimentation, and for the interpretations of past environmental changes. Here, we report detailed information on the seasonal sedimentation of different varve components and palaeolimnological indicators (diatoms, chrysophycaean cysts) in Lake Nautajärvi, Finland, using near-bottom sediment trap monitoring. The monitoring results strongly support previous interpretations of the formation of clastic-biogenic varves in Fennoscandian lakes. The results also indicate that seasonal sediment fluxes correspond with regional climate and environmental changes. They clearly reveal differences in the amount of seasonal sediment flux between two climatologically and hydrologically different years. For example, higher snow storage in winter and the discharge intensity during the following spring snow melt clearly increases the suspended sediment load, transportation, and net accumulation of detrital mineral matter during spring and early summer. A prolonged autumn and subsequent freezing and thawing cycles in winter, conversely, results in an incremental but slow accumulation of assorted mineral matter and organic particles during winter, whereas the subsequent spring flooding and detrital sediment yield are diminished and thinner clastic laminae are formed. The accumulation rates of diatoms and chrysophyte cysts suggest these algal groups are more dependent on seasonal processes (e.g. spring and autumnal overturn) than on rapid, short-lived environmental episodes such as the spring discharge peak.

  8. Reconstruction of early Holocene paleoclimate and environment in the SW Kola region, Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grekov, Ivan; Kolka, Vasiliy; Syrykh, Liudmila; Nazarova, Larisa

    2016-04-01

    In the current period of the global climate change it becomes necessary to have a clear understanding of not only the changes taking place in the components of the natural environment, but also to understand development of all interactions between those components. Quaternary terrigenic sediments and lakes of the Kola Peninsula store information about the development of the region in the Late Glacial and Holocene: movements of the glacier, neotectonic activity, post-glacial rebound, formation and development of natural environments after deglaciation. Multi-proxy study of landscapes evolution of the Kola Peninsula in the Late Quaternary will help to establish a detailed reconstruction of climatic and environmental changes of this poor studied sector of the Arctic. Quaternary history on the Kola Peninsula is represented mainly by Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments covering the Baltic Shield (Lavrova, 1960; Evzerov, 2015). Several palaeolimnological investigations in the Baltic Shield area have been performed earlier (Donner et al., 1977; Anundsen, 1985; Berglund, 2004). Studies of the southern coast of the Kola Peninsula have shown that marine transgression took place in the Late Pleistocene that was then replaced by a regression with variable speed. The slowdown of the uplift of the area took place between 8800 - 6800 BP (cal. years) and corresponded to the time of the Tapes transgression of the Arctic Ocean (Evzerov et al. 2010; Kolka, et al., 2013). Palaeoclimatic studies based on micro-paleontological analyzes indicate uneven development of the Kola Peninsula landscapes in the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. The northern coast of the Peninsula became free of ice first. In this area tundra-steppe vegetation was established for a short time and was later replaced by tundra (Snyder et al, 2000). Southern part of the Kola Peninsula was dependent on the conditions of deglaciation of the White Sea basin and cleared of ice much later (Evzerov et al., 2010; Kolka, et al., 2013). Reconstruction of the Early Holocene average July air temperatures based on chironomid analysis showed that in the middle of the Peninsula air T July were around + 10.3oC which is below the modern values. A sharp warming took place then during the Mid Holocene optimum (Ilyashuk, 2000; Ilyashuk, 2013). The reconstructed Early Holocene T July of the southern part of the Peninsula are similar to the modern T July + 12oC. For a detailed reconstruction of paleogeographic environments of the south-western part of the Kola Peninsula in Holocene we studied the valley of Kolvica river and the southern shore of lake Kolvitsa (67.01-67.11 N; 33.17-33.48 E). Analysis of lithological sequences and radiocarbon dating of sediments of small lakes present a clear outline of the development of the studied region from 9.3 14C ka (10.5 cal. ka BP) to the present day. Based on micro-paleontological analyzes we performed a qualitative reconstruction of climatic conditions during the Holocene, which shows a clear change of cooling and warming in the studied area, as well as the dynamics of the White Sea coastal zone and the development of the studied lake basins. This project was financed by RFBR 15-35-50479 mol_nr.

  9. Linking Rock Magnetic Parameters and Tropical Paleoclimate in Postglacial Carbonates of the Tahitian Coral Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platzman, E. S.; Lund, S.; Camoin, G.; Thouveny, N.

    2009-12-01

    In areas far away from active plate boundaries and previously glaciated regions, ecologically sensitive coral reefs provide an ideal laboratory for studying the timing and extent of deglaciation events as well as climatic change/variability at sub-millennial timescales. We have studied the Post Last-Glacial-Maximum (Post-LGM) coral reef terrace sediments recovered from the island of Tahiti on IODP Expedition 310. Samples for magnetic analysis were obtained from 632 meters of core from three reef tracts (Maraa, Tiarei, Faaa) surrounding the island (37 holes at 22 sites). The Post-LGM sediments are composed of >95% carbonate residing in a mixture of macroscopic framework corals, encrusting coralline algae, and bacterial microbialites (60% of the total core volume). Detailed paleomagnetic and rock magnetic measurements indicate that the microbialites carry a strong and stable natural magnetic remanence residing almost entirely in titanomagnetite derived from the Tahitian volcanic edifice. Within each tract, paleomagnetic results (inclination, relative paleointensity) were correlated to build a composite magnetic stratigraphy, which we could then compile with radiocarbon dates to develop an absolute chronostratigraphy. At the Maraa tract, for example, we use 54 radiocarbon dates to date our composite section to 7,500 to 13,500 cal. ybp. and demonstrate that the reef developed in a smooth and coherent manner over this interval. Overlaying the chronostratigraphy on measurements of the variation in magnetic properties including susceptibility, ARM, and IRM we can monitor changes in concentration, composition and grainsize of the influx of volcanogenic sediment over time. The ARM, IRM, and CHI intensities (normalized to sample weight) show a single strong peak between~9-10,000 years ago. We also observe a ~500-yr cyclicity in magnetic grain size and a clear increase in grain size associated with the Younger Dryas that we interpret to be related to rainfall variability. The rainfall variability, driven on both a global and regional scale, ultimately results from changes in western Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SST) that drive the island monsoon. Comparison with other proxy data will allow us to build up a detailed climate picture of this key postglacial period.

  10. Reconstruction of a high-resolution late holocene arctic paleoclimate record from Colville River delta sediments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schreiner, Kathryn Melissa; Lowry, Thomas Stephen

    2013-10-01

    This work was partially supported by the Sandia National Laboratories, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) fellowship program in conjunction with Texas A&M University (TAMU). The research described herein is the work of Kathryn M. Schreiner (Katie) and her advisor, Thomas S. Bianchi and represents a concise description of Katies dissertation that was submitted to the TAMU Office of Graduate Studies in May 2013 in partial fulfillment of her doctorate of philosophy degree. High Arctic permafrost soils contain a massive amount of organic carbon, accounting for twice as much carbon as what is currently stored as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, with current warming trends this sink is in danger of thawing and potentially releasing large amounts of carbon as both carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. It is difficult to make predictions about the future of this sink without knowing how it has reacted to past temperature and climate changes. This project investigated long term, fine scale particulate organic carbon (POC) delivery by the high-Arctic Colville River into Simpsons Lagoon in the near-shore Beaufort Sea. Modern POC was determined to be a mixture of three sources (riverine soils, coastal erosion, and marine). Downcore POC measurements were performed in a core close to the Colville River output and a core close to intense coastal erosion. Inputs of the three major sources were found to vary throughout the last two millennia, and in the Colville River core covary significantly with Alaskan temperature reconstructions.

  11. Deposition, exhumation, and paleoclimate of an ancient lake deposit, Gale crater, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grotzinger, J. P.; Gupta, S.; Malin, M. C.; Rubin, D. M.; Schieber, J.; Siebach, K.; Sumner, D. Y.; Stack, K. M.; Vasavada, A. R.; Arvidson, R. E.; Calef, F.; Edgar, L.; Fischer, W. F.; Grant, J. A.; Griffes, J.; Kah, L. C.; Lamb, M. P.; Lewis, K. W.; Mangold, N.; Minitti, M. E.; Palucis, M.; Rice, M.; Williams, R. M. E.; Yingst, R. A.; Blake, D.; Blaney, D.; Conrad, P.; Crisp, J.; Dietrich, W. E.; Dromart, G.; Edgett, K. S.; Ewing, R. C.; Gellert, R.; Hurowitz, J. A.; Kocurek, G.; Mahaffy, P.; McBride, M. J.; McLennan, S. M.; Mischna, M.; Ming, D.; Milliken, R.; Newsom, H.; Oehler, D.; Parker, T. J.; Vaniman, D.; Wiens, R. C.; Wilson, S. A.

    2015-10-01

    The landforms of northern Gale crater on Mars expose thick sequences of sedimentary rocks. Based on images obtained by the Curiosity rover, we interpret these outcrops as evidence for past fluvial, deltaic, and lacustrine environments. Degradation of the crater wall and rim probably supplied these sediments, which advanced inward from the wall, infilling both the crater and an internal lake basin to a thickness of at least 75 meters. This intracrater lake system probably existed intermittently for thousands to millions of years, implying a relatively wet climate that supplied moisture to the crater rim and transported sediment via streams into the lake basin. The deposits in Gale crater were then exhumed, probably by wind-driven erosion, creating Aeolis Mons (Mount Sharp).

  12. Deposition, exhumation, and paleoclimate of an ancient lake deposit, Gale crater, Mars

    OpenAIRE

    Grotzinger, JP; Gupta, S; Malin, MC; Rubin, DM; Schieber, J; Siebach, K; Sumner, DY; Stack, KM; Vasavada, AR; Arvidson, RE; Calef, F; Edgar, L; Fischer, WF; Grant, JA; Griffes, J

    2015-01-01

    The landforms of northern Gale crater on Mars expose thick sequences of sedimentary rocks. Based on images obtained by the Curiosity rover, we interpret these outcrops as evidence for past fluvial, deltaic, and lacustrine environments. Degradation of the crater wall and rim probably supplied these sediments, which advanced inward from the wall, infilling both the crater and an internal lake basin to a thickness of at least 75 meters. This intracrater lake system probably existed intermittentl...

  13. Evaluation of organic geochemical and micropaleontological proxies for Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions in Tampa Bay, Florida

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Soelen, E. E.; Brooks, G.; Lammertsma, E.; Donders, T.; Wagner-Cremer, F.; Sangiorgi, F.; Cremer, H.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.; Reichart, G. J.

    2009-01-01

    The exact consequences of human induced climate change are as yet not known. One of the current debates concerns the relation between rising sea surface temperatures (SST) and enhanced hurricane activity. It has also been suggested that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability plays a

  14. Investigating C4 Grass Contributions to N-alkane Based Paleoclimate Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doman, C. E.; Enders, S. K.; Chadwick, O.; Freeman, K. H.

    2014-12-01

    Plant wax n-alkanes are long-chain, saturated hydrocarbons contained within the protective waxy cuticle on leaves. These lipids are pervasive and persistent in soils and sediments and thus are ideal biomarkers of ancient terrestrial organic matter. In ecosystems dominated by C3 plants, the relationship between the carbon isotopic value of whole leaves and lipids is fairly well documented, but this relationship has not been fully investigated for plants that use C4 photosynthesis. In both cases, it is unclear if the isotopic relationships are sensitive to environmental conditions, or reflect inherited characteristics. This study used a natural climate gradient on the Kohala peninsula of Hawaii to investigate relationships between climate and the δ13C and δ2H values of n-alkanes in C3 and C4 plants. δ13C of C3 leaves and lipids decreased 5 ‰ from the driest to the wettest sites, consistent with published data. Carbon isotope values of C4 plants showed no relationship to moisture up to 1000 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP). Above this threshold, δ 13C values were around 10‰ more depleted, likely due to a combination of canopy effects and C4 grasses growing in an uncharacteristically wet and cold environment. In C3 plants, the fractionation between leaf and lipid carbon isotopes did not vary with MAP, which allows estimations of δ13C leaf to be made from alkanes preserved in ancient sediments. Along this transect, C3 plants produce around twice the quantity of n-alkanes as C4 grasses. C4 grasses produce longer carbon chains. As a result, n-alkanes in the geologic record will be biased towards C3 plants, but the presence of alkanes C33 and C35 indicate the contributions of C4 grasses. In both C3 and C4 plants, average chain length increased with mean annual precipitation, but the taxonomic differences in chain length were greater than environmental differences. Hydrogen isotopes of n-alkanes show no trends with MAP, but do show clear differences between plant functional types and sampled taxa. That there is no strong trend between fractionation and aridity supports the use of δ2Hlipid as a record of environmental waters at the time of lipid synthesis, provided that the relative contributions of each plant functional type can be identified using other proxies.

  15. Drought on the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru: Climate, Paleoclimate, and Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Rigsby, C. A.; Li, L.; Capriles, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    We examine for the first time the economic, social and political consequences of an extreme drought on the Altiplano that persisted from 1935 to 1945, a period of substantial regional social upheaval. We also examine drought in relation to a pre-historic period of great conflict on the Altiplano during the Late Intermediate Period (ca. AD 1000-1450) (Arkush and Tung, 2013). The level of Lake Titicaca has been measured continuously since 1915. The period from 1935 to 1945 was the longest continuously dry period, with falling lake levels, in this record. Prior to 1960 there were few weather stations in the region. Compositing data from three of these stations from the western margin of Lake Titicaca provides a nearly complete precipitation record with values below the long-term annual average observed every year between 1936 and 1947. Here, 1940 was the driest year, far drier than the consequential 1982/3 El Nino drought, with precipitation only 36% of the mean. Farther north at Cuzco, Peru, every year between 1935 and 1944 was at or below the mean. 1938 was the driest year with 38% of the long-term average value of precipitation. The oxygen isotopic composition of the Quelccaya ice cap (Thompson et al., 1984), situated at the northern limit of the Lake Titicaca watershed, is a reliable indicator of regional precipitation amount. Here, d18O values of ice were continuously at or above the mean value (indicating dry conditions) between 1934 and 1944. Taken together, these four records indicate below-average precipitation at all sites in the region for ten consecutive years, 1935-1944. This extreme drought of the last century was just one manifestation of the highly significant (at the 99.8% confidence level) climate variability that has persisted for at least the past 500 years (Melice and Roucou, 1998). This variability is coherent during the instrumental period with tropical North Atlantic SST.

  16. Holocene paleoclimate inferred from salinity histories of adjacent lakes in southwestern Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, B Brandon; Henne, Paul; Mezquita-Joanes, Francesc; Marrone, Federico; Pieri, Valentina; La Mantia, Tommaso; Calo, Camilla; Tinner, Willy

    2016-01-01

    Marked uncertainties persist regarding the climatic evolution of the Mediterranean region during the Holocene. For instance, whether moisture availability gradually decreased, remained relatively constant, or increased during the last 7000 years remains a matter of debate. To assess Holocene limnology, hydrology and moisture dynamics, the coastal lakes Lago Preola and Gorgo Basso, located in southwestern Sicily, were investigated through several stratigraphic analyses of ostracodes, including multivariate analyses of assemblages, transfer functions of salinity, and biochemical analyses of valves (Sr/Ca, δ18O and δ13C). During the early Holocene, the Gorgo Basso and Lago Preola ostracode records are similar. After an initial period of moderate salinity (1690–6100 mg/l from ca. 10,000–8190 cal yr BP), syndepositional or diagenetic dissolution of ostracode valves suggests that salinity declined to Greek civilization took root in Sicily (2600 cal yr BP), and it completely dominates the record during Roman occupation (roughly 2100 to 1700 cal yr BP). These freshwater conditions at Gorgo Basso suggest high effective moisture when evergreen olive-oak forests collapsed in response to increased Greco-Roman land use and fire. Ostracode valve geochemistry (Sr/Ca, δ18O) suggests significant changes in early vs. late Holocene hydrochemistry, either as changes in salinity or in the seasonality of precipitation. Harmonizing the autecological and geochemical data from Gorgo Basso suggests the latter was more likely, with relatively more late Holocene precipitation falling during the spring, summer, and fall, than winter compared to the early Holocene. Our ostracode-inferred paleosalinity data indicate that moisture availability did not decline during the late Holocene in the central Mediterranean region. Instead, moisture availability was lowest during the early Holocene, and most abundant during the late Holocene.

  17. Biogeography in deep time - What do phylogenetics, geology, and paleoclimate tell us about early platyrrhine evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Richard F

    2015-01-01

    Molecular data have converged on a consensus about the genus-level phylogeny of extant platyrrhine monkeys, but for most extinct taxa and certainly for those older than the Pleistocene we must rely upon morphological evidence from fossils. This raises the question as to how well anatomical data mirror molecular phylogenies and how best to deal with discrepancies between the molecular and morphological data as we seek to extend our phylogenies to the placement of fossil taxa. Here I present parsimony-based phylogenetic analyses of extant and fossil platyrrhines based on an anatomical dataset of 399 dental characters and osteological features of the cranium and postcranium. I sample 16 extant taxa (one from each platyrrhine genus) and 20 extinct taxa of platyrrhines. The tree structure is constrained with a "molecular scaffold" of extant species as implemented in maximum parsimony using PAUP with the molecular-based 'backbone' approach. The data set encompasses most of the known extinct species of platyrrhines, ranging in age from latest Oligocene (∼26 Ma) to the Recent. The tree is rooted with extant catarrhines, and Late Eocene and Early Oligocene African anthropoids. Among the more interesting patterns to emerge are: (1) known early platyrrhines from the Late Oligocene through Early Miocene (26-16.5Ma) represent only stem platyrrhine taxa; (2) representatives of the three living platyrrhine families first occur between 15.7 Ma and 13.5 Ma; and (3) recently extinct primates from the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola) are sister to the clade of extant platyrrhines and may have diverged in the Early Miocene. It is probable that the crown platyrrhine clade did not originate before about 20-24 Ma, a conclusion consistent with the phylogenetic analysis of fossil taxa presented here and with recent molecular clock estimates. The following biogeographic scenario is consistent with the phylogenetic findings and climatic and geologic evidence: Tropical South America has been a center for platyrrhine diversification since platyrrhines arrived on the continent in the middle Cenozoic. Platyrrhines dispersed from tropical South America to Patagonia at ∼25-24 Ma via a "Paraná Portal" through eastern South America across a retreating Paranense Sea. Phylogenetic bracketing suggests Antillean primates arrived via a sweepstakes route or island chain from northern South America in the Early Miocene, not via a proposed land bridge or island chain (GAARlandia) in the Early Oligocene (∼34 Ma). Patagonian and Antillean platyrrhines went extinct without leaving living descendants, the former at the end of the Early Miocene and the latter within the past six thousand years. Molecular evidence suggests crown platyrrhines arrived in Central America by crossing an intermittent connection through the Isthmus of Panama at or after 3.5Ma. Any more ancient Central American primates, should they be discovered, are unlikely to have given rise to the extant Central American taxa in situ. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Geochemical characteristics of the Permian sedimentary rocks from Qiangtang Basin: Constraints for paleoenvironment and paleoclimate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjie Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Qiangtang Basin is expected to become important strategic petroleum exploitation area in China. However, little research has been done on the Permian strata in this area. This paper presents Lower Permian Zhanjin Formation geochemical data from the Jiaomuri area, reconstructing the paleo-depositional environment and providing information for further petroleum exploration. The geochemical characteristics of 19 samples were investigated. These geochemical samples show a developed mud flat characteristic with light rich clay content. The geological data were used to constrain the paleoredox environment, which proved that these sediments were deposited mainly beneath a slightly oxic water column with relatively low paleoproductivity as evidenced by the P/Ti (mean of 0.07 and Ba/Al (mean of 20.5. Palaeoclimate indexes such as the C-value (0.24-1.75 and Sr/Cu (1.28-11.58 reveal a humid climatic condition during Zhanjin Formation sediment deposition. The ω(LaN/ω(YbN ratio values indicate a fast sedimentary rate during the deposition period.

  19. Understanding the NAO from Iberian and UK paleoclimate records. The NAOSIPUK project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Toney, Jaime L.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Slaymark, Charlotte; José Ramos-Román, Maria; Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Anderson, R. Scott

    2017-04-01

    The main goal of the NAOSIPUK project was to understand the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the Holocene, because the NAO is one major climate mode influencing climate patterns across Europe, and therefore, economy and society (Hurrell, 1995). We analysed several sedimentary records in two regions with opposing NAO responses. Our sedimentary surface survey from numerous lakes and bogs, led to further investigation of four records in the southern Iberian Peninsula and three in the central/northern UK. Past environments of the different sites were analysed using pollen and charcoal analysis, organic and inorganic geochemistry analyses, and sedimentary and geophysical surveys were performed. This work compares general environmental trends in both regions as deduced from the organic matter from bulk sediment to get an idea of the organic matter source, as well as specific organic compounds extracted from the sediment, such as leaf waxes (n-alkanes), algae-related compounds (diols and alkenones), and bacteria-related compounds (hopanes), to specify the sources of the organic matter, environmental temperature ranges, as well as hydrological changes. Our preliminary results show that the palaeoenvironmental indices developed from n-alkanes agree with the variations deduced from the carbon and nitrogen atomic ratios, as well as the carbon isotopic composition from bulk sediments in southern Iberia records. Interestingly, these indices show that some locations display opposite trends from one another, and are used to distinguish regional versus local effects of climate change, human impacts, and aeolian dust inputs. During the late Holocene solar forcing and NAO fluctuations are the main drivers of the environmental evolution in most of the Iberian and UK sites. However, we do detect the influence of the NAO in the temperatures oscillations of the studied sites in southern Iberia. This influence is much more important in the north/central UK sites. The regional comparison between north/central UK and southern Iberia shows a more stable middle Holocene (from ˜7.0 to ˜5.0 cal ky BP) at higher latitudes. On the other hand, the environmental and climatic changes in southern Spain are abrupt during this period. This might be related to the beginning or increasing influence of the NAO during the middle Holocene, which is coeval with a change in the precipitation source in this area. The UK records mainly show abrupt environmental changes between 4.5 and 4.0 cal ky BP and during the last millennia. These environmental changes are especially abrupt in both areas during the last one-hundred years, agreeing with the regional and global industrial development. References Hurrell, J.W., 1995. Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation. Science 269, 676-679. NAOSIPUK. http://www.naosipuk.org. Last access: 9th January 2017.

  20. Molecular Paleoclimate Reconstructions over the Last 9 ka from a Peat Sequence in South China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinxin Wang

    Full Text Available To achieve a better understanding of Holocene climate change in the monsoon regions of China, we investigated the molecular distributions and carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions (δ13C and δD values of long-chain n-alkanes in a peat core from the Shiwangutian (SWGT peatland, south China over the last 9 ka. By comparisons with other climate records, we found that the δ13C values of the long-chain n-alkanes can be a proxy for humidity, while the δD values of the long-chain n-alkanes primarily recorded the moisture source δD signal during 9-1.8 ka BP and responded to the dry climate during 1.8-0.3 ka BP. Together with the average chain length (ACL and the carbon preference index (CPI data, the climate evolution over last 9 ka in the SWGT peatland can be divided into three stages. During the first stage (9-5 ka BP, the δ13C values were depleted and CPI and Paq values were low, while ACL values were high. They reveal a period of warm and wet climate, which is regarded as the Holocene optimum. The second stage (5-1.8 ka BP witnessed a shift to relatively cool and dry climate, as indicated by the more positive δ13C values and lower ACL values. During the third stage (1.8-0.3 ka BP, the δ13C, δD, CPI and Paq values showed marked increase and ACL values varied greatly, implying an abrupt change to cold and dry conditions. This climate pattern corresponds to the broad decline in Asian monsoon intensity through the latter part of the Holocene. Our results do not support a later Holocene optimum in south China as suggested by previous studies.

  1. Pacific southwest United States Holocene summer paleoclimate inferred from sediment calcite oxygen isotopes (Lake Elsinore, CA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, M.; Patterson, W. P.; Lachniet, M. S.; Anderson, M.; Noblet, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Records of past climate inform on the natural range and mechanisms of climate change. In the arid Pacific southwest United States (pswUS), there exist a variety of Holocene records that infer past winter conditions (moisture and/or temperature). Holocene records of summer climate, however, are rare excepting short-lived (zone (Kirby et al. 2004) shows similar changes providing confidence in our longer record. Various forcing mechanisms are examined to explain the Elsinore summer record including insolation, Pacific SSTs, and trace gas radiative forcing.

  2. The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O’Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

    2018-01-01

    Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003–2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010–2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December–January–February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500–2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March–April–May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought. PMID:29780675

  3. Molecular Paleoclimate Reconstructions over the Last 9 ka from a Peat Sequence in South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinxin; Huang, Xianyu; Sachse, Dirk; Ding, Weihua; Xue, Jiantao

    2016-01-01

    To achieve a better understanding of Holocene climate change in the monsoon regions of China, we investigated the molecular distributions and carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions (δ13C and δD values) of long-chain n-alkanes in a peat core from the Shiwangutian (SWGT) peatland, south China over the last 9 ka. By comparisons with other climate records, we found that the δ13C values of the long-chain n-alkanes can be a proxy for humidity, while the δD values of the long-chain n-alkanes primarily recorded the moisture source δD signal during 9–1.8 ka BP and responded to the dry climate during 1.8–0.3 ka BP. Together with the average chain length (ACL) and the carbon preference index (CPI) data, the climate evolution over last 9 ka in the SWGT peatland can be divided into three stages. During the first stage (9–5 ka BP), the δ13C values were depleted and CPI and Paq values were low, while ACL values were high. They reveal a period of warm and wet climate, which is regarded as the Holocene optimum. The second stage (5–1.8 ka BP) witnessed a shift to relatively cool and dry climate, as indicated by the more positive δ13C values and lower ACL values. During the third stage (1.8–0.3 ka BP), the δ13C, δD, CPI and Paq values showed marked increase and ACL values varied greatly, implying an abrupt change to cold and dry conditions. This climate pattern corresponds to the broad decline in Asian monsoon intensity through the latter part of the Holocene. Our results do not support a later Holocene optimum in south China as suggested by previous studies. PMID:27505008

  4. Deposition, exhumation, and paleoclimate of an ancient lake deposit, Gale crater, Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grotzinger, J P; Gupta, S; Malin, M C; Rubin, D M; Schieber, J; Siebach, K; Sumner, D Y; Stack, K M; Vasavada, A R; Arvidson, R E; Calef, F; Edgar, L; Fischer, W F; Grant, J A; Griffes, J; Kah, L C; Lamb, M P; Lewis, K W; Mangold, N; Minitti, M E; Palucis, M; Rice, M; Williams, R M E; Yingst, R A; Blake, D; Blaney, D; Conrad, P; Crisp, J; Dietrich, W E; Dromart, G; Edgett, K S; Ewing, R C; Gellert, R; Hurowitz, J A; Kocurek, G; Mahaffy, P; McBride, M J; McLennan, S M; Mischna, M; Ming, D; Milliken, R; Newsom, H; Oehler, D; Parker, T J; Vaniman, D; Wiens, R C; Wilson, S A

    2015-10-09

    The landforms of northern Gale crater on Mars expose thick sequences of sedimentary rocks. Based on images obtained by the Curiosity rover, we interpret these outcrops as evidence for past fluvial, deltaic, and lacustrine environments. Degradation of the crater wall and rim probably supplied these sediments, which advanced inward from the wall, infilling both the crater and an internal lake basin to a thickness of at least 75 meters. This intracrater lake system probably existed intermittently for thousands to millions of years, implying a relatively wet climate that supplied moisture to the crater rim and transported sediment via streams into the lake basin. The deposits in Gale crater were then exhumed, probably by wind-driven erosion, creating Aeolis Mons (Mount Sharp). Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, J.W.C.

    2001-01-01

    Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs

  6. Formation of ferric iron crusts in Quaternary sediments of Lake Baikal, Russia, and implications for paleoclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deike, R.G.; Granina, L.; Callender, E.; McGee, J.J.

    1997-01-01

    Phosphate-bearing, ferric iron and siliceous crusts ranging in age from Recent to approximately 65,000 yr B.P. are observed in sediments of Lake Baikal. In younger sediments the crusts are at the base of a spectrum of secondary iron and manganese oxides that accumulate near the sediment/water interface in the zone of positive oxidation potential beneath an oxygenated water column. In areas where the average Quaternary sedimentation rates have been slow (e.g. 0.026 mm/yr), the crusts are more common, and span a wider range of ages. No crusts have been found where the Quaternary sedimentation mode has been deltaic and rapid (0.15 mm/yr). Independent core correlation based on magnetic properties of the sediment suggests that crusts can be correlated over most of Academician Ridge, an area that is particularly sensitive to climatic events affecting the concentration of suspended sediment. These crusts may be indicative of periods of low suspended sediment concentration, which occur during sustained transitions from glacial periods of high detrital input, to interglacial periods of high diatom sedimentation. The crusts are dominated by iron-rich and siliceous amorphous mineral phases, with an FeO:SiO2 by weight of 3:1. Regardless of age or location in the lake the Fe phase always includes Ca, P and Mn. Extensive microprobe data for these four elements recast as normalized elemental weight percent reveal linear trends of Ca:P and Fe:P. With increasing P, Ca also increases such that the two elements maintain a linear relationship passing very close to the origin and with a mean molar Ca:P=0.3 (too low for well-characterized apatite). Conversely, with increasing P, Fe decreases (mean molar Fe:P=3.4). There is no correlation between Mn and P. Molar Fe:P ratios for vivianite (an Fe(II) phosphate mineral observed in sediments closely below some crusts) are clustered around a stoichiometric composition. The covariant increase in Ca:P and the corresponding decrease in Fe:P may be explained by: (1) coupled adsorption of aqueous Ca and P by a colloidal ferric hydrous oxide; (2) loss of Fe from a Ca-P-Fe phase; or (3) oxidation of vivianite to a metastable mineral phase that gradually loses Ca and gains Fe. The first explanation is favored, because there is no petrographic evidence for either the existence of an originating Ca-P-Fe phase, or, for the oxidation of vivianite. Further, it is suggested that by continually equalizing surface charge, Ca allows more phosphate to be adsorbed leading to thicker crusts and longer preservation after burial.

  7. Pre-Incan Archeology of Peru: Paleo-Indians in the Paleo-Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrandi, Marsha

    2011-01-01

    Peru's prehistory, climate, and terrain are the landscape upon which one of humankind's longest migrations occurred. When the glacial period ended, a geographic and cultural transition began when the meltwaters carved river valleys across the South American continent. Culture-rich communities of fishers, miners, artisans, and morticians populated…

  8. Understanding Paleoclimate and Human Evolution Through the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaye Reed

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the evolution of humans and our close relatives is one of the enduring scientific issues of modern times. Since the time of Charles Darwin, scientists have speculated on how and when we evolved and what conditions drove this evolutionary story. The detective work required to address these questions is necessarily interdisciplinary,involving research in anthropology, archaeology, human genetics and genomics, and the earth sciences. In addition to the difficult tasks of finding, describing, and interpreting hominin fossils (the taxonomic tribe which includes Homo sapiens and our close fossil relatives from the last 6 Ma, much of modern geological research associated with paleoanthropology involves understanding the geochronologic and paleoenvironmental context of those fossils. When were they entombed in the sediments? What were the local and regional climatic conditions that early hominins experienced? How did local (watershed scale and regional climate processes combine with regional tectonic boundary conditions to influence hominin food resources, foraging patterns, and demography? How and when did these conditions vary from humid to dry, or cool to warm? Can the history of those conditions (Vrba, 1988; Potts, 1996 be related to the evolution, diversification, stasis, or extinction of hominin species?

  9. Paleoclimates and geomorphological evolution of the Carajas region: geochemical and geochronological evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, P.M.

    1996-01-01

    Based on the geochronological results, on the petrographical and geochemical observations and considering the experimental evidences that suggests a great influence of the organic processes in the Manganese geochemistry it's possible to conclude that the dissolution and reprecipitation events of the Manganese oxides in the Carajas region, Para State, Brazil, represents humid and hot periods in the geological history of the region. The weathering dating furnishes information about the continental evolution in the Mesozoic/Cenozoic, difficult or impossible to determine by another methods

  10. Creating a lab to facilitate high school student engagement in authentic paleoclimate science practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, A.; Walsh, E.

    2012-12-01

    A solid understanding of timescales is crucial for any climate change discussion. This hands-on lab was designed as part of a dual-credit climate change course in which high school students can receive college credit. Using homemade ice cores, students have the opportunity to participate in scientific practices associated with collecting, processing, and interpreting temperature and CO2 data. Exploring millennial-scale cycles in ice core data and extending the CO2 record to the present allows students to discover timescales from an investigators perspective. The Ice Core Lab has been piloted in two high school classrooms and student engagement, and epistemological and conceptual understanding was evaluated using quantitative pre and post assessment surveys. The process of creating this lab involved a partnership between an education assessment professional, high school teachers, and University of Washington professors and graduate students in Oceanography, Earth and Space Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences and the Learning Sciences as part of the NASA Global Climate Change University of Washington in the High School program. This interdisciplinary collaboration led to the inception of the lab and was necessary to ensure that the lesson plan was pedagogically appropriate and scientifically accurate. The lab fits into a unit about natural variability and is paired with additional hands-on activities created by other graduate students that explore short-timescale temperature variations, Milankovitch cycles, isotopes, and other proxies. While the Ice Core Lab is intended to follow units that review the scientific process, global energy budget, and transport, it can be modified to fit any teaching platform.

  11. Paleoclimate and paleoecology of the mid Cretaceous traced by calcareous nannofossils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottini, Cinzia; Erba, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Aptian - early Turonian time interval was marked by major environmental changes at regional to global scale. Specifically, it was a time of super-greenhouse conditions and the climate-ocean system experienced phases of stability perturbed by transient, sometimes prolonged, anomalies of the global carbon cycle. Several regional to global episodes occurred over this time interval: the early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, the early Albian OAE 1b, the latest Albian OAE 1d, the Mid-Cenomanian Event (MCE I) and the Cenomanian - Turonian OAE 2. Decades of multidisciplinary research focused on OAEs since they constitute ideal case-histories for the understanding of our planet functioning during perturbations of the C cycle. They were, in fact, characterized by excess CO2, intense volcanism, and altered climate and oceanic chemistry. A useful tool for reconstructing the marine ecosystem dynamics of the past, is calcareous nannoplankton, since it is extremely sensitive to changes in surface waters parameters like temperature and nutrient content and interacts with the C cycle through biological processes and production of calcareous oozes. Here, we gathered new quantitative nannofossil data for the Tethys Ocean (Umbria Marche Basin, Italy) to derive climatic fluctuations and changes in ocean fertility during the late Albian - early Turonian. Over this time interval, the Tethys Ocean was characterized by phases of rhythmic black shale deposition controlled by orbital forcing. The Pialli Level is the Tethyan sedimentary expression of the latest Albian OAE 1d, characterized by large-scale occurrence of black shales and a δ13C positive excursion recognized in several deep-marine settings. The other prominent δ13C anomaly coincides with the OAE 2 represented, in Italy, by the Bonarelli Level. Between these two main C-isotopic excursions, a double-spiked minor anomaly identifies the MCE I, lithologically represented by a shift to black shales and black chert bands alternating with whitish limestones. The new dataset has been integrated with the nannofossil data previously collected for the Aptian - early Albian time interval to provide a compilation of temperature and surface water variations on the long-term throughout the Aptian - early Turonian interval. The nannofossil Temperature and Nutrient Indices outline warm conditions for the OAE 1a which was followed by a cooling trend culminating soon after the N. truittii acme interval. Progressively increasing temperature characterized instead the latest phases of the Aptian and warmer conditions were reached in the Albian - Cenomanian, although interrupted by relatively cooler phases, as for example in correspondence of the MCE. Highest nannofossil-derived paleotemperatures were reached across OAE 2. Surface water fertility resulted instead to be relatively high during most of the early-middle Aptian, exception made for the N. truittii acme interval when a significant decrease occurred. The latest Aptian - early Albian interval was marked by intermediate trophism in surface waters, with intervals of higher fertility during black shales deposition. During the interval comprised between the OAE 1b and the OAE 1d, fertility was relatively high while it decreased in the Cenomanian. A distinct fertility pulse was detected prior to OAE 2.

  12. Reconstructing paleo-precipitation amounts using a terrestrial hydrologic model: Lake Titicaca and the Salar de Uyuni, Peru and Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunnery, J. A.; Baker, P. A.; Coe, M. T.; Fritz, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    The Peruvian/Bolivian Altiplano has provided many information-rich records bearing on the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), a large-scale circulation system that is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Amazon basin and the southern tropics and subtropics. Examples of these paleoclimate time series include long, drill core records from Lake Titicaca (extending back to ca. 400 Ka, Fritz et al., 2007), the long drill core record from Salar de Uyuni (> 250 Ka, Baker et al., 2001; Fritz et al., 2004), paleo-lake level records from the Salar de Uyuni (e.g. Bills et al., 2004; Placzek et al, 2006); drill core records from the Rio Desaguadero valley (Rigsby et al., 2003), and ice core records from Quelccaya, Illimani, and Sajama (Thompson et al., 2000; Ramirez et al., 2003). Several previous studies using energy and water balance models have been applied to these records in attempts to provide quantitative constraints on paleo-temperature and paleo-precipitation (e.g. Kessler, 1984; Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1985; Cross et al, 2001; Rowe and Dunbar, 2004; Arnold, 2002; Blodgett et al., 1997). For example, Blodgett et al. concluded that high paleolake stands in the Bolivian Altiplano, dated at ca. 16,000 cal. Yr BP (Bills et al., 1994) required precipitation 20% higher than modern at temperatures 5°C colder than modern. However, their model did not take into account the major overflow from Lake Titicaca. Using the THMB hydrologic model, we show that overflow from Lake Titicaca is necessary to produce and sustain large lakes in the Salar de Uyuni basin. This hydrological connection (via the Rio Desaguadero) between the northern and southern Altiplano likely was only established about 60,000 years ago. Prior to that, there were no sustained, large and deep paleolakes on the southern Altiplano. Rather, drill core evidence indicates a very long sequence of shallow, hypersaline lakes and playas.

  13. Synchronizing early Eocene deep-sea and continental records - cyclostratigraphic age models for the Bighorn Basin Coring Project drill cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerhold, Thomas; Röhl, Ursula; Wilkens, Roy H.; Gingerich, Philip D.; Clyde, William C.; Wing, Scott L.; Bowen, Gabriel J.; Kraus, Mary J.

    2018-03-01

    A consistent chronostratigraphic framework is required to understand the effect of major paleoclimate perturbations on both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Transient global warming events in the early Eocene, at 56-54 Ma, show the impact of large-scale carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system. Here we provide the first timescale synchronization of continental and marine deposits spanning the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and the interval just prior to the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2). Cyclic variations in geochemical data come from continental drill cores of the Bighorn Basin Coring Project (BBCP, Wyoming, USA) and from marine deep-sea drilling deposits retrieved by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP). Both are dominated by eccentricity-modulated precession cycles used to construct a common cyclostratigraphic framework. Integration of age models results in a revised astrochronology for the PETM in deep-sea records that is now generally consistent with independent 3He age models. The duration of the PETM is estimated at ˜ 200 kyr for the carbon isotope excursion and ˜ 120 kyr for the associated pelagic clay layer. A common terrestrial and marine age model shows a concurrent major change in marine and terrestrial biota ˜ 200 kyr before ETM-2. In the Bighorn Basin, the change is referred to as Biohorizon B and represents a period of significant mammalian turnover and immigration, separating the upper Haplomylus-Ectocion Range Zone from the Bunophorus Interval Zone and approximating the Wa-4-Wa-5 land mammal zone boundary. In sediments from ODP Site 1262 (Walvis Ridge), major changes in the biota at this time are documented by the radiation of a second generation of apical spine-bearing sphenolith species (e.g., S. radians and S. editus), the emergence of T. orthostylus, and the marked decline of D. multiradiatus.

  14. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  15. Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydro2k Consortium, Pages

    2017-12-01

    Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform

  16. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Saito

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3 simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya and the LGM (21 kya. This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect method was 26.0 (17.7 million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2 million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6 million km2 to 18.1 (16.0 million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble – improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology – also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial

  17. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2013-08-01

    Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) and the LGM (21 kya). This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect) method was 26.0 (17.7) million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2) million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6) million km2 to 18.1 (16.0) million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble - improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology - also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern

  18. Origin of the Squantum 'Tillite', Massachusetts, USA: Modern Analogs and Implications for Neoproterozoic Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carto, S. L.; Eyles, N.

    2009-05-01

    examination of deposits uncritically labeled as Neoproterozoic 'tillites' by paleoclimate modelers.

  19. Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2016-12-01

    Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

  20. Comparing modeled and observed changes in mineral dust transport and deposition to Antarctica between the Last Glacial Maximum and current climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albani, Samuel [University of Siena, Graduate School in Polar Sciences, Siena (Italy); University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Mahowald, Natalie M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Delmonte, Barbara; Maggi, Valter [University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Winckler, Gisela [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-05-15

    Mineral dust aerosols represent an active component of the Earth's climate system, by interacting with radiation directly, and by modifying clouds and biogeochemistry. Mineral dust from polar ice cores over the last million years can be used as paleoclimate proxy, and provide unique information about climate variability, as changes in dust deposition at the core sites can be due to changes in sources, transport and/or deposition locally. Here we present results from a study based on climate model simulations using the Community Climate System Model. The focus of this work is to analyze simulated differences in the dust concentration, size distribution and sources in current climate conditions and during the Last Glacial Maximum at specific ice core locations in Antarctica, and compare with available paleodata. Model results suggest that South America is the most important source for dust deposited in Antarctica in current climate, but Australia is also a major contributor and there is spatial variability in the relative importance of the major dust sources. During the Last Glacial Maximum the dominant source in the model was South America, because of the increased activity of glaciogenic dust sources in Southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego and the Southernmost Pampas regions, as well as an increase in transport efficiency southward. Dust emitted from the Southern Hemisphere dust source areas usually follow zonal patterns, but southward flow towards Antarctica is located in specific areas characterized by southward displacement of air masses. Observations and model results consistently suggest a spatially variable shift in dust particle sizes. This is due to a combination of relatively reduced en route wet removal favouring a generalized shift towards smaller particles, and on the other hand to an enhanced relative contribution of dry coarse particle deposition in the Last Glacial Maximum. (orig.)

  1. Euthanasia requests in a Canadian psychiatric emergency room: A case series: Part 1 of the McGill University euthanasia in psychiatry case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benrimoh, David; Perreault, Antoine; Van Den Eynde, Frederique

    Euthanasia was decriminalized in Quebec in December 2015, and Canada-wide in June 2016. Both the Provincial and Federal legislation have limited the right to medical assistance in dying (MAID) to end-of-life cases; which makes MAID inaccessible to most patients solely suffering from psychiatric illness. While some end-stage anorexia nervosa or elderly patients may meet the end-of-life criterion because of their medical comorbidities or their age (Kelly et al., 2003), repeated suicide attempts or psychotic disorganization would not qualify since they would not be seen as elements of an illness leading to a foreseeable "natural death" (Canada, 2016). This is in contradiction to other jurisdictions, such as Belgium and the Netherlands as well as the eligibility criteria stated in the Supreme Court of Canada's decision in Carter v. Canada (Supreme Court of Canada, 2015). Here we analyze three cases of patients who presented to a psychiatric emergency department and requested MAID for psychiatric reasons. While none of the patients were eligible for MAID under Canadian law, we find that their demographics match closely that of patients granted MAID for psychiatric reasons in jurisdictions where that practice is allowed. Based on these cases, we comment on potentially negative consequences that may come from decriminalizing MAID for psychiatric reasons (such as an increased assessment burden on ED staff) and potentially positive consequences (such as encouraging suffering patients who had not consulted to seek care). While it is by no means our intention to take a political or moral stand on this important issue, or to conclusively weigh the negatives and positives of allowing MAID for psychiatric reasons, we do stress the importance of an active voice for psychiatry in this ongoing public debate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. High-Resolution Modeling of ENSO-Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, J.; Karamperidou, C.

    2017-12-01

    Clastic sediment flux into high-elevation Andean lakes is controlled by glacial processes and soil erosion caused by high precipitation events, making these lakes suitable archives of past climate. To wit, sediment records from Laguna Pallcacocha in Ecuador have been interpreted as proxies of ENSO variability, owing to increased precipitation in the greater region during El Niño events. However, the location of the lake's watershed, the presence of glaciers, and the different impacts of ENSO on precipitation in the eastern vs western Andes have challenged the suitability of the Pallcacocha record as an ENSO proxy. Here, we employ WRF, a high-resolution regional mesoscale weather prediction model, to investigate the circulation dynamics, sources of moisture, and resulting precipitation response in the L. Pallcacocha region during different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events, and in the presence or absence of ice caps. In patricular, we investigate Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño, and La Niña events. We validate the model simulations against spatially interpolated station measurements and reanalysis data. We find that during EP events, moisture is primarily advected from the Pacific, whereas during CP events, moisture primarily originates from the Atlantic. More moisture is available during EP events, which implies higher precipitation rates. Furthermore, we find that precipitation during EP events is mostly non-convective in contrast to primarily convective precipitation during CP events. Finally, a synthesis of the sedimentary record and the EP:CP ratio of accumulated precipitation and specific humidity in the L. Pallcacocha region allows us to assess whether past changes in the relative frequency of the two ENSO flavors may have been recorded in paleoclimate archives in this region.

  3. Paleoenvironmental inference models from sediment diatom assemblages in Baffin Island lakes (Nunavut, Canada) and reconstruction of summer water temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joynt, E. H. III; Wolfe, A. P. [Colorado Univ., Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-06-01

    Lake sediments are attractive repositories for paleoclimate proxy data because they are temporally continuous, undisturbed and datable. It is particularly true of lakes which are ubiquitous throughout the Arctic regions, enabling dense spatial coverage of sampling sites. In more recent times diatoms have been applied to a a variety of paleoenvironmental questions. However, these studies have been of limited usefulness because they lack a regional training set that would facilitate making quantitative paleoenvironmental inferences. This article provides this inferential tool, together with an example of its application. Conductivity, pH, summer lake water temperature, and mean annual air temperature have been identified as the significant controls over diatom assemblages from the surface sediments of 61 lakes on Baffin Island. Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models for these parameters have been developed. Results show that the summer lake water temperature model provides realistic reconstructions when compared with other paleoenvironmental records. Over the past 5000 years the amplitude of reconstructed summer lake water temperature was found to be on the order of 4 degrees C, expressed primarily as progressive neoglacial cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age. Diatom-inferred summer water temperatures have increased by about 2 degrees C in the past 150 years, which is also in agreement with independent paleoclimatic reconstructions. The data obtained in this study complements similar efforts from the western Canadian Arctic and the northern reaches of Scandinavia, however, this is the first training set developed for lakes situated entirely north of the tree line. As such, it extends the applicability of diatoms for paleotemperature reconstructions well into the Arctic tundra biome. 45 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs., 1 appendix.

  4. Greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This special issue is devoted to the greenhouse effect and reviews the possible climate change by mankind, paleoclimates, climate models, measurement of terrestrial temperature, CO 2 concentration and energy policy

  5. A human model of inflammatory cardio-metabolic dysfunction; a double blind placebo-controlled crossover trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehta Nehal N

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic inflammation may contribute to insulin resistance (IR, metabolic syndrome and atherosclerosis although evidence of causality is lacking in humans. We hypothesized that very low-dose experimental endotoxemia would induce adipose tissue inflammation and systemic IR during a low-grade but asymptomatic inflammatory response and thus provide an experimental model for future tests of pharmacologic and genomic modulation of cardio-metabolic traits in humans. Methods Ten healthy, human volunteers (50% male, 90% Caucasian, mean age 22.7 ± 3.8 were randomized in a double-masked, placebo-controlled, crossover study to separate 36-hour inpatient visits (placebo versus intravenous-LPS 0.6 ng/kg. We measured clinical symptoms via the McGill pain questionnaire and serial vital signs. Plasma and serum were collected for measurement of cytokines, C-reactive protein, insulin and glucose, serial whole blood & subcutaneous adipose tissue mRNA expression were measured by real-time PCR. HOMA-IR, a well-validated measure of IR was calculated to estimate insulin resistance, and frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance testing (FSIGTT was performed to confirm an insulin resistant state. We performed ANOVA and within subject ANOVA to understand the differences in cytokines, adipose tissue inflammation and IR before and after LPS or placebo. Results There was no significant difference between placebo and LPS in clinical responses of symptom scores, body temperature or heart rate. However, low-dose endotoxemia induced a rapid and transient 25-fold induction of plasma TNF-alpha and 100-fold increase in plasma IL-6 (Figure 1B (p p p = 0.01 increased with MCP-1 (peak 10-fold, F = 5.6, p p p p  Conclusions We present a low dose human endotoxemia model of inflammation which induces adipose tissue inflammation and systemic insulin resistance in the absence of overt clinical response. Such a model has the potential

  6. High resolution HH-XRF scanning and XRD modelling as a tool in sedimentological analysis - A case study from the Enreca-3 core, Bach Long Vi Island, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Malgorzata; Hemmingsen Schovsbo, Niels; Korte, Christoph; Bryld Wessel Fyhn, Michael

    2017-04-01

    To improve the understanding and interpretation of the depositional environment of a late Oligocene lacustrine organic rich oil-prone source rock succession, 2464 hand held (HH)-XRF measurements were made systematically on the 500 m long, continuous core from the fully cored Enreca-3 well. This core, drilled on the remote Bach Long Vi Island, northern Gulf of Tonkin, offshore Vietnam, represents a deep lake succession alternating between lacustrine pelagic dominated sediments interrupted by hyperpycnal turbidites, high density turbidites and debris flows [1, 2]. From a combined HH-XRF-XRD data set, multivariate data analysis and regression models are used to type the rock and to predict the XRD mineral composition based on HH-XRF composition. The rock types and the modelled mineral composition highlight the geochemical variations of the sediment and allows for direct comparison with sedimentological processes and facies changes. The modeling also depicts the cyclic alteration of rock types that are present on many different scales ranging from centimeters to hundreds of meters [1, 2]. The sedimentological and geochemical variations observed throughout the cored section reflects fluctuating paleoclimate, tectonism and hinterland condition controlling the depositional setting, which may provide a deeper understanding of the deposition of this and similar Paleogene syn-rift succession in the South China Sea region. It allows furthermore the development of a more generalized depositional model relevant for other deep-lacustrine syn-rift basins. [1] Petersen et al. (2014) Journal of Petroleum Geology, 37: 373-389. [2] Hovikoski et al. (2016) Journal of Sedimentary Research, 86(8): 982-1007.

  7. The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is

  8. Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colose, Christopher; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger

  9. Modelling Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian; Gani, Rafiqul

    2011-01-01

    This chapter deals with the practicalities of building, testing, deploying and maintaining models. It gives specific advice for each phase of the modelling cycle. To do this, a modelling framework is introduced which covers: problem and model definition; model conceptualization; model data...... requirements; model construction; model solution; model verification; model validation and finally model deployment and maintenance. Within the adopted methodology, each step is discussedthrough the consideration of key issues and questions relevant to the modelling activity. Practical advice, based on many...

  10. Leadership Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Thomas J.

    This paper discusses six different models of organizational structure and leadership, including the scalar chain or pyramid model, the continuum model, the grid model, the linking pin model, the contingency model, and the circle or democratic model. Each model is examined in a separate section that describes the model and its development, lists…

  11. Models and role models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Cate, Jacob M

    2015-01-01

    Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of action and was also utilized for the formulation of oral care products. In addition, we made use of intra-oral (in situ) models to study other features of the oral environment that drive the de/remineralization balance in individual patients. This model addressed basic questions, such as how enamel and dentine are affected by challenges in the oral cavity, as well as practical issues related to fluoride toothpaste efficacy. The observation that perhaps fluoride is not sufficiently potent to reduce dental caries in the present-day society triggered us to expand our knowledge in the bacterial aetiology of dental caries. For this we developed the Amsterdam Active Attachment biofilm model. Different from studies on planktonic ('single') bacteria, this biofilm model captures bacteria in a habitat similar to dental plaque. With data from the combination of these models, it should be possible to study separate processes which together may lead to dental caries. Also products and novel agents could be evaluated that interfere with either of the processes. Having these separate models in place, a suggestion is made to design computer models to encompass the available information. Models but also role models are of the utmost importance in bringing and guiding research and researchers. 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel

  12. Model(ing) Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, Kerstin

    The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was the first and most celebrated of a wave of international criminal tribunals (ICTs) built in the 1990s designed to advance liberalism through international criminal law. Model(ing) Justice examines the case law of the ICTY...

  13. Models and role models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Cate, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of

  14. Latitude, sunshine, and human lactase phenotype distributions may contribute to geographic patterns of modern disease: the inflammatory bowel disease model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szilagyi A

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Andrew Szilagyi,1 Henry Leighton,2 Barry Burstein,3 Xiaoqing Xue41Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Jewish General Hospital, 2Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 3Department of Medicine, Jewish General Hospital, 4Department of Emergency Medicine, Jewish General Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, QC, CanadaAbstract: Countries with high lactase nonpersistence (LNP or low lactase persistence (LP populations have lower rates of some “western” diseases, mimicking the effects of sunshine and latitude. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, ie, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, is putatively also influenced by sunshine. Recent availability of worldwide IBD rates and lactase distributions allows more extensive comparisons. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent to which modern day lactase distributions interact with latitude, sunshine exposure, and IBD rates. National IBD rates, national distributions of LP/LNP, and population-weighted average national annual ultraviolet B exposure were obtained, estimated, or calculated from the literature. Negative binomial analysis was used to assess the relationship between the three parameters and IBD rates. Analyses for 55 countries were grouped in three geographic domains, ie, global, Europe, and non-Europe. In Europe, both latitude and ultraviolet B exposure correlate well with LP/LNP and IBD. In non-Europe, latitude and ultraviolet B exposure correlate weakly with LP/LNP, but the latter retains a more robust correlation with IBD. In univariate analysis, latitude, ultraviolet B exposure, and LP/LNP all had significant relationships with IBD. Multivariate analysis showed that lactase distributions provided the best model of fit for IBD. The model of IBD reveals the evolutionary effects of the human lactase divide, and suggests that latitude, ultraviolet B exposure, and LP/LNP mimic each other because LP/LNP follows latitudinal directions toward the equator

  15. Exploiting the atmosphere's memory for monthly, seasonal and interannual temperature forecasting using Scaling LInear Macroweather Model (SLIMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    . The corresponding space-time model (the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) is thus only multifractal in space where the spatial intermittency is associated with different climate zones. SLIMM exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and uses the long historical memory of the temperature series to improve the skill. The only model parameter is the fluctuation scaling exponent, H (usually in the range -0.5 - 0), which is directly related to the skill and can be obtained from the data. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5° x 5° regions covering the planet using ERA-Interim, 20CRv2 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as reference datasets. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we compare it with actual skill based on hindcasts for monthly, seasonal and annual resolutions. We also present maps of calibrated probability hindcasts with their respective validations. Comparisons between our results using SLIMM, some other stochastic autoregressive model, and hindcasts from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)'s model CFSv2, are also shown. For seasonal temperature forecasts, SLIMM outperforms the GCM based forecasts in over 90% of the earth's surface. SLIMM forecasts can be accessed online through the site: http://www.to_be_announced.mcgill.ca.

  16. Modeling the stable water isotope expression of El Niño in the Pliocene: Implications for the interpretation of proxy data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tindall, Julia C.; Haywood, Alan M.; Thirumalai, Kaustubh

    2017-08-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives interannual climate variability; hence, its behavior over a range of climates needs to be understood. It is therefore important to verify that the paleoarchives, used for preinstrumental ENSO studies, can accurately record ENSO signals. Here we use the isotope enabled Hadley Centre General Circulation Model, HadCM3, to investigate ENSO signals in paleoarchives from a warm paleoclimate, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP: 3.3-3.0 Ma). Continuous (e.g., coral) and discrete (e.g., foraminifera) proxy data are simulated throughout the tropical Pacific, and ENSO events suggested by the pseudoproxy data are assessed using modeled ENSO indices. HadCM3 suggests that the ability to reconstruct ENSO from coral data is predominantly dependent on location. However, since modeled ENSO is slightly stronger in the mPWP than the preindustrial, ENSO is slightly easier to detect in mPWP aged coral. HadCM3 also suggests that using statistics from a number of individual foraminifera (individual foraminifera analysis, IFA) generally provides more accurate ENSO information for the mPWP than for the preindustrial, particularly in the western and central Pacific. However, a test case from the eastern Pacific showed that for some locations, the IFA method can work well for the preindustrial but be unreliable for a different climate. The work highlights that sites used for paleo-ENSO analysis should be chosen with extreme care in order to avoid unreliable results. Although a site with good skill for preindustrial ENSO will usually have good skill for assessing mPWP ENSO, this is not always the case.

  17. Impact of convective activity on precipitation δ18O in isotope-enabled models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Dee, S.

    2017-12-01

    The ^18O signal preserved in paleo-archives (e.g. speleothem, tree ring cellulose, ice cores) is widely used to reconstruct precipitation or temperature. In the tropics, the inverse relationship between precipitation ^18O and rainfall amount, namely "amount effect" [Dansgaard, Tellus, 1964], is often used to interpret precipitation ^18O. However, recent studies have shown that precipitation ^18O is also influenced by precipitation type [Kurita et al, JGR, 2009; Moerman et al, EPSL, 2013], and recent observations indicate that it is negatively correlated with the fraction of precipitation associated with stratiform clouds [Aggarwal et al, Nature Geosci, 2016]. It is thus important to determine to what extent isotope-enabled climate models can reproduce these relationships. Here we do so using output from LMDZ, CAM2, and isoGSM from the Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group, Phase 2 (SWING2) project and results of SPEEDY-IER [Dee et al, JGR, 2015] from an AMIP-style experiment. The results show that these models simulate the "amount effect" well in the tropics, and the relationship between precipitation ^18O and precipitation is reversed in many places in mid-latitudes, in accordance with observations [Bowen, JGR, 2008]. Also, these models can all reproduce the negative correlation between monthly precipitation ^18O and stratiform precipitation proportion in mid-latitude (30°N-50°N; 50°S-30°S), but in the tropics (30°S-30°N), models show a positive correlation instead. The reason for this bias will be investigated within idealized experiments with SPEEDY-IER. The correct simulations of the impact of convective activity on precipitation ^18O in isotope-enabled models will improve our interpretation of paleoclimate proxies with respect to hydroclimate variability. P. K. Aggarwal et al. (2016), Nature Geosci., 9, 624-629, doi:10.1038/ngeo2739. G. J. Bowen. (2008), J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05113, doi:10.1029/2007JD009295. W. Dansgaard (1964), Tellus, 16(4), 436

  18. Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

  19. INTEGRATED GEOLOGIC-ENGINEERING MODEL FOR REEF AND CARBONATE SHOAL RESERVOIRS ASSOCIATED WITH PALEOHIGHS: UPPER JURASSIC SMACKOVER FORMATION, NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ernest A. Mancini

    2001-09-14

    The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization and modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 1 of the project has been reservoir description and characterization. This effort has included four tasks: (1) geoscientific reservoir characterization, (2) the study of rock-fluid interactions, (3) petrophysical and engineering characterization and (4) data integration. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 1. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions has been initiated. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been

  20. Modeling the drift of massive icebergs to the subtropical North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condron, A.; Hill, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    New evidence from high-resolution seafloor bathymetry data indicates that massive (>300m thick) icebergs from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) drifted south to the tip of Florida during the last deglaciation. This finding is particularly exciting as it contradicts evidence from marine sediments that icebergs were mainly confined to the subpolar North Atlantic (50 - 70N) at this time. Indeed, the freshwater released from icebergs melting in the subpolar gyre is repeatedly cited as a main trigger for a slow-down of the Atlantic MOC in the past, and the possible cause of any climate cooling related to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the future. Using a sophisticated iceberg model (MITberg), coupled to a high (18-km; 1/6 deg.) resolution ocean model (MITgcm), we investigate the ocean circulation dynamics required to allow icebergs to drift to the southern tip of Florida. We find that icebergs only reach this location if they turn right at the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, and stay inshore of the Gulf Stream all the way to Florida. Modern-day circulation dynamics do not readily allow this to happen as cold, southward flowing, Labrador Current Water (important for iceberg survival) has little penetration south of Cape Hatteras. However, when a liquid meltwater flood is released from Hudson Bay at the same time, icebergs are rapidly transported (inshore of the Gulf Stream) in a narrow, buoyant, coastal current all the way to southern Florida. The meltwater and icebergs result in a significant freshening of the subtropical North Atlantic and weaken the strength of the Gulf Stream, suggesting such an event would have a large cooling effect on climate. We are only able to simulate the flow of meltwater and icebergs to the subtropics by modeling ocean circulation at a resolution that is 5 - 10 times higher than the majority of existing paleoclimate models; at lower resolutions the narrow, coastal boundary currents important for iceberg transport to the subtropics are

  1. Modelling SDL, Modelling Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Piefel

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Today's software systems are too complex to implement them and model them using only one language. As a result, modern software engineering uses different languages for different levels of abstraction and different system aspects. Thus to handle an increasing number of related or integrated languages is the most challenging task in the development of tools. We use object oriented metamodelling to describe languages. Object orientation allows us to derive abstract reusable concept definitions (concept classes from existing languages. This language definition technique concentrates on semantic abstractions rather than syntactical peculiarities. We present a set of common concept classes that describe structure, behaviour, and data aspects of high-level modelling languages. Our models contain syntax modelling using the OMG MOF as well as static semantic constraints written in OMG OCL. We derive metamodels for subsets of SDL and UML from these common concepts, and we show for parts of these languages that they can be modelled and related to each other through the same abstract concepts.

  2. Reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from sparse historical records using robust probabilistic principal component regression

    OpenAIRE

    Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin; Goring, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Scientific records of temperature and precipitation have been kept for several hundred years, but for many areas, only a shorter record exists. To understand climate change, there is a need for rigorous statistical reconstructions of the paleoclimate using proxy data. Paleoclimate proxy data are often sparse, noisy, indirect measurements of the climate process of interest, making each proxy uniquely challenging to model statistically. We reconstruct spatially explicit temper...

  3. Spatial variability and trends in Younger Dryas equilibrium line altitudes across the European Alps using a hypsometrically based ELA model: results and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, D. G.; Rupper, S.; Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.; Maurer, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Alpine glaciers constitute an important component of terrestrial paleoclimate records due to, among other characteristics, their high sensitivity to climate change, near global extent, and their integration of myriad climate variables into a single, easily detected signal. Because the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) provides a more explicit representation of climate than many other glacier properties, ELA methods allow for more direct comparisons of multiple glaciers within or between regions. Such comparisons allow for more complete investigations of the ultimate causes of mountain glaciation during specific events. Many studies however tend to focus on a limited number of sites, and employ a large variety of different techniques for ELA reconstruction between studies, making wider climate implications more tenuous. Methods of ELA reconstruction that can be rapidly and consistently applied to an arbitrary number of paleo-glaciers would provide a more accurate portrayal of the changes in climate across a given region. Here we present ELA reconstructions from Egesen Stadial moraines across the European Alps using an ELA model accounting for differences in glacier width, glacier shape, bed topography, ice thickness, and glacier length, including several glaciers constrained to the Younger Dryas using surface exposure dating techniques. We compare reconstructed Younger Dryas ELA values to modern ELA values using the same model, or using end of summer snowline estimates where no glacier is currently present. We further provide uncertainty estimates on the ΔELA using bootstrapped Monte Carlo simulations for the various input parameters. Preliminary results compare favorably to previous glacier studies of the European Younger Dryas, but provide greater context from many glaciers across the region as a whole. Such results allow for a more thorough investigation of the spatial variability and trends in climate during the Younger Dryas across the European Alps, and

  4. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

    2018-06-01

    the temperature dynamics. We further show that our proposed initialization procedure is effective and robust to uncertainty in paleo-climate reconstructions and that more than 300 years of reconstructed climate time series are needed for proper model initialization.

  5. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface–hydrology models in cold regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sapriza-Azuri

    2018-06-01

    adequately represent the temperature dynamics. We further show that our proposed initialization procedure is effective and robust to uncertainty in paleo-climate reconstructions and that more than 300 years of reconstructed climate time series are needed for proper model initialization.

  6. Modelling the models

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2012-01-01

    By analysing the production of mesons in the forward region of LHC proton-proton collisions, the LHCf collaboration has provided key information needed to calibrate extremely high-energy cosmic ray models.   Average transverse momentum (pT) as a function of rapidity loss ∆y. Black dots represent LHCf data and the red diamonds represent SPS experiment UA7 results. The predictions of hadronic interaction models are shown by open boxes (sibyll 2.1), open circles (qgsjet II-03) and open triangles (epos 1.99). Among these models, epos 1.99 shows the best overall agreement with the LHCf data. LHCf is dedicated to the measurement of neutral particles emitted at extremely small angles in the very forward region of LHC collisions. Two imaging calorimeters – Arm1 and Arm2 – take data 140 m either side of the ATLAS interaction point. “The physics goal of this type of analysis is to provide data for calibrating the hadron interaction models – the well-known &...

  7. INTEGRATED GEOLOGIC-ENGINEERING MODEL FOR REEF AND CARBONATE SHOAL RESERVOIRS ASSOCIATED WITH PALEOHIGHS: UPPER JURASSIC SMACKOVER FORMATION, NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ernest A. Mancini

    2003-09-25

    The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling that utilizes geologic reservoir characterization and modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 3 of the project has been reservoir characterization, 3-D modeling, testing of the geologic-engineering model, and technology transfer. This effort has included six tasks: (1) the study of seismic attributes, (2) petrophysical characterization, (3) data integration, (4) the building of the geologic-engineering model, (5) the testing of the geologic-engineering model and (6) technology transfer. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 3. Progress on the project is as follows: geoscientific reservoir characterization is completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions has been completed. Observations regarding the diagenetic

  8. Modelling Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lars Bjørn; Vesterager, Johan

    This report provides an overview of the existing models of global manufacturing, describes the required modelling views and associated methods and identifies tools, which can provide support for this modelling activity.The model adopted for global manufacturing is that of an extended enterprise s...

  9. Paleoclimatology: a survey on ancient climates. Volume 1 - To find, date and interpret indices; Volume 2 - To fit the puzzle pieces one to the other: to understand and model a complex system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Ramstein, G.; Berger, A.; Joussaume, S.; Guillou, H.; Paterne, M.; Michel, E.; Hatte, C.; Dutay, J.C.; Nomade, S.; Scaillet, S.; Frank, N.; Salle, E.; Laj, C.; Channell, J.E.T.; Kissel, C.; Guibal, F.; Guiot, J.; Parrenin, F.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Jouzel, J.; Rousseau, D.D.; Genty, D.; Von Grafenstein, U.; Belmecheri, S.; Daux, V.; Williamson, D.; Gasse, F.; Vimeux, F.; Cortijo, E.; Labeyrie, L.; Bopp, L.; Friedlingstein, P.; Chappellaz, J.; Legrand, M.; Delmas, R.; Ritz, C.; Peyaud, V.; Waelbroeck, C.; Colleoni, F.; Fluteau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Paillard, D.; Godderis, Y.; Le Hir, G.; Donnadieu, Y.; Roche, D.M.; Combourieu Nebout, N.; Braconnot, P.; Yiou, P.; Charbit, S.; Dufresne, J.L.; Cattiaux, J.

    2013-11-01

    The first volume of this collective publication gathers contributions on techniques used to reconstruct past climates. The chapters address the climate system operation and history (evolution, mechanisms, the atmosphere, oceans, ground and marine biosphere, cryo-sphere, lithosphere), propose an introduction to geochronology, present and discuss various dating methods (carbon 14, K-Ar and Ar-Ar methods, dating of corals and other geological samples based the disequilibrium between uranium and thorium isotopes, use of magnetic stratigraphy, dendro-chronology, dating of ice archives), discuss how to reconstruct atmosphere physics and circulation, address the use and properties of different interfaces (air-ice with polar ices, air-plants with pollen, air-soil with loessic sequences as markers of atmospheric circulation or reconstruction of paleo-climates with speleothems, air-lake, plant-atmosphere, air-plant, air-water, air-ice in tropical glaciers), and discuss the use of paleo-oceanography data. The second volume gathers contributions in which the authors present the most recent approaches used to reconstruct the operation of the climate system in the past by using present observations and models. The chapters address the biochemistry of the climate system during the last million of years, the relationship between cryo-sphere and sea level, the climate at the scale of geological times, modelling approaches in paleoclimatology, the Precambrian climate, the Phanerozoic climates, the relationship between climate and astronomic cycles, the description and mechanisms of quick climate variability, the Holocene and the anthropogenic perturbation, and the evolution from past climates to future climates

  10. Document Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Malykh

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the concept of locally simple models is considered. Locally simple models are arbitrarily complex models built from relatively simple components. A lot of practically important domains of discourse can be described as locally simple models, for example, business models of enterprises and companies. Up to now, research in human reasoning automation has been mainly concentrated around the most intellectually intensive activities, such as automated theorem proving. On the other hand, the retailer business model is formed from ”jobs”, and each ”job” can be modelled and automated more or less easily. At the same time, the whole retailer model as an integrated system is extremely complex. In this paper, we offer a variant of the mathematical definition of a locally simple model. This definition is intended for modelling a wide range of domains. Therefore, we also must take into account the perceptual and psychological issues. Logic is elitist, and if we want to attract to our models as many people as possible, we need to hide this elitism behind some metaphor, to which ’ordinary’ people are accustomed. As such a metaphor, we use the concept of a document, so our locally simple models are called document models. Document models are built in the paradigm of semantic programming. This allows us to achieve another important goal - to make the documentary models executable. Executable models are models that can act as practical information systems in the described domain of discourse. Thus, if our model is executable, then programming becomes redundant. The direct use of a model, instead of its programming coding, brings important advantages, for example, a drastic cost reduction for development and maintenance. Moreover, since the model is well and sound, and not dissolved within programming modules, we can directly apply AI tools, in particular, machine learning. This significantly expands the possibilities for automation and

  11. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, CC

    2012-01-01

    Model theory deals with a branch of mathematical logic showing connections between a formal language and its interpretations or models. This is the first and most successful textbook in logical model theory. Extensively updated and corrected in 1990 to accommodate developments in model theoretic methods - including classification theory and nonstandard analysis - the third edition added entirely new sections, exercises, and references. Each chapter introduces an individual method and discusses specific applications. Basic methods of constructing models include constants, elementary chains, Sko

  12. Modeling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healy, Richard W.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

    2010-01-01

    Simulation models are widely used in all types of hydrologic studies, and many of these models can be used to estimate recharge. Models can provide important insight into the functioning of hydrologic systems by identifying factors that influence recharge. The predictive capability of models can be used to evaluate how changes in climate, water use, land use, and other factors may affect recharge rates. Most hydrological simulation models, including watershed models and groundwater-flow models, are based on some form of water-budget equation, so the material in this chapter is closely linked to that in Chapter 2. Empirical models that are not based on a water-budget equation have also been used for estimating recharge; these models generally take the form of simple estimation equations that define annual recharge as a function of precipitation and possibly other climatic data or watershed characteristics.Model complexity varies greatly. Some models are simple accounting models; others attempt to accurately represent the physics of water movement through each compartment of the hydrologic system. Some models provide estimates of recharge explicitly; for example, a model based on the Richards equation can simulate water movement from the soil surface through the unsaturated zone to the water table. Recharge estimates can be obtained indirectly from other models. For example, recharge is a parameter in groundwater-flow models that solve for hydraulic head (i.e. groundwater level). Recharge estimates can be obtained through a model calibration process in which recharge and other model parameter values are adjusted so that simulated water levels agree with measured water levels. The simulation that provides the closest agreement is called the best fit, and the recharge value used in that simulation is the model-generated estimate of recharge.

  13. Galactic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchler, J.R.; Gottesman, S.T.; Hunter, J.H. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Various papers on galactic models are presented. Individual topics addressed include: observations relating to galactic mass distributions; the structure of the Galaxy; mass distribution in spiral galaxies; rotation curves of spiral galaxies in clusters; grand design, multiple arm, and flocculent spiral galaxies; observations of barred spirals; ringed galaxies; elliptical galaxies; the modal approach to models of galaxies; self-consistent models of spiral galaxies; dynamical models of spiral galaxies; N-body models. Also discussed are: two-component models of galaxies; simulations of cloudy, gaseous galactic disks; numerical experiments on the stability of hot stellar systems; instabilities of slowly rotating galaxies; spiral structure as a recurrent instability; model gas flows in selected barred spiral galaxies; bar shapes and orbital stochasticity; three-dimensional models; polar ring galaxies; dynamical models of polar rings

  14. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to

  15. Model-model Perencanaan Strategik

    OpenAIRE

    Amirin, Tatang M

    2005-01-01

    The process of strategic planning, used to be called as long-term planning, consists of several components, including strategic analysis, setting strategic direction (covering of mission, vision, and values), and action planning. Many writers develop models representing the steps of the strategic planning process, i.e. basic planning model, problem-based planning model, scenario model, and organic or self-organizing model.

  16. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

  17. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

  18. Constitutive Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Piccolo, Chiara; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    covered, illustrating several models such as the Wilson equation and NRTL equation, along with their solution strategies. A section shows how to use experimental data to regress the property model parameters using a least squares approach. A full model analysis is applied in each example that discusses...... the degrees of freedom, dependent and independent variables and solution strategy. Vapour-liquid and solid-liquid equilibrium is covered, and applications to droplet evaporation and kinetic models are given....

  19. Interface models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Anders P.; Staunstrup, Jørgen

    1994-01-01

    This paper proposes a model for specifying interfaces between concurrently executing modules of a computing system. The model does not prescribe a particular type of communication protocol and is aimed at describing interfaces between both software and hardware modules or a combination of the two....... The model describes both functional and timing properties of an interface...

  20. Hydrological models are mediating models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  1. ICRF modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, C.K.

    1985-12-01

    This lecture provides a survey of the methods used to model fast magnetosonic wave coupling, propagation, and absorption in tokamaks. The validity and limitations of three distinct types of modelling codes, which will be contrasted, include discrete models which utilize ray tracing techniques, approximate continuous field models based on a parabolic approximation of the wave equation, and full field models derived using finite difference techniques. Inclusion of mode conversion effects in these models and modification of the minority distribution function will also be discussed. The lecture will conclude with a presentation of time-dependent global transport simulations of ICRF-heated tokamak discharges obtained in conjunction with the ICRF modelling codes. 52 refs., 15 figs

  2. Modelling in Business Model design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonse, W.L.

    2013-01-01

    It appears that business model design might not always produce a design or model as the expected result. However when designers are involved, a visual model or artefact is produced. To assist strategic managers in thinking about how they can act, the designers challenge is to combine strategy and

  3. Eclipse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, F.C.

    1989-01-01

    Three existing eclipse models for the PSR 1957 + 20 pulsar are discussed in terms of their requirements and the information they yield about the pulsar wind: the interacting wind from a companion model, the magnetosphere model, and the occulting disk model. It is shown out that the wind model requires an MHD wind from the pulsar, with enough particles that the Poynting flux of the wind can be thermalized; in this model, a large flux of energetic radiation from the pulsar is required to accompany the wind and drive the wind off the companion. The magnetosphere model requires an EM wind, which is Poynting flux dominated; the advantage of this model over the wind model is that the plasma density inside the magnetosphere can be orders of magnitude larger than in a magnetospheric tail blown back by wind interaction. The occulting disk model also requires an EM wind so that the interaction would be pushed down onto the companion surface, minimizing direct interaction of the wind with the orbiting macroscopic particles

  4. Ventilation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, H.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis and model report (AMR) for the Ventilation Model is to analyze the effects of pre-closure continuous ventilation in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) emplacement drifts and provide heat removal data to support EBS design. It will also provide input data (initial conditions, and time varying boundary conditions) for the EBS post-closure performance assessment and the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Process Model. The objective of the analysis is to develop, describe, and apply calculation methods and models that can be used to predict thermal conditions within emplacement drifts under forced ventilation during the pre-closure period. The scope of this analysis includes: (1) Provide a general description of effects and heat transfer process of emplacement drift ventilation. (2) Develop a modeling approach to simulate the impacts of pre-closure ventilation on the thermal conditions in emplacement drifts. (3) Identify and document inputs to be used for modeling emplacement ventilation. (4) Perform calculations of temperatures and heat removal in the emplacement drift. (5) Address general considerations of the effect of water/moisture removal by ventilation on the repository thermal conditions. The numerical modeling in this document will be limited to heat-only modeling and calculations. Only a preliminary assessment of the heat/moisture ventilation effects and modeling method will be performed in this revision. Modeling of moisture effects on heat removal and emplacement drift temperature may be performed in the future

  5. Geochemical Tools and Paleoclimate Clues: Multi-Molecular and Isotopic Investigations of Tropical Marine Sediments and Alpine Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-02-01

    with increased inputs of C4 plant material at these times. 11 12 Acknowledgements I get by with a little help from my friends... - The Beatles My most...Massachusetts 02543 February 2006 DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Funding was provided by a Schlanger Ocean Drilling Fellowship, which is part of the NSF-sponsored U.S...Science Support Program (USSSP). An NSF grant to TIE (OCE-0402533) provided additional funding for the research. Funding for the Cariaco Basin

  6. Paleoecologies and paleoclimates of late cenozoic mammals from Southwest China: Evidence from stable carbon and oxygen isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biasatti, Dana; Wang, Yang; Gao, Feng; Xu, Yingfeng; Flynn, Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    To examine paleodiets and habitats of extinct taxa and to understand long-term regional climate change, we determined the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of fossil herbivore teeth and soil samples from six localities in Yunnan Province, Southwest China, ranging in age from ˜10 Ma to the present. Although limited in spatial and temporal coverage, these initial results reveal significant changes in the environments and diets of mammalian taxa over the last 10 million years. Prior to 2-3 Ma, while most mammals examined had pure or nearly pure C 3 diets, some individuals consumed a small amount of C 4 grasses (up to 20% C 4). Since then, C 4 grasses became a significant dietary component for most herbivores as indicated by higher enamel-δ 13C values in the Pleistocene Yuanmou Formation and at Shangri-La, most likely reflecting an increased C 4 biomass in the region. The carbon isotope results show that the diets of mammals of ˜2.5-1.75 Ma from Shangri-La ranged from pure C 3 to pure C 4 while 1.7 Ma horses from Yuanmou had 0-70% C 4 grasses in their diets. Mammals living at ˜8-7 Ma in the Yuanmou and Lufeng region had very similar diets and habitats, with similar climatic conditions. Increased C 4 biomass after ˜3-4 Ma suggests a significant change in certain aspects of regional climate, such as increased seasonality of rainfall or an increase in seasonal drought and fires as these factors are important to modern grasslands. The data also show that unlike the Siwalik fauna in the Indian subcontinent, mammals in Yunnan on the southeast side of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau lived in an environment dominated by dense forests until ˜3-4 Ma. Nonetheless, both δ 13C values of paleosol carbonates and fossil enamels indicate that C 4 grasses were present in the Yuanmou region in the latest Miocene and Pliocene (˜8-3.5 Ma), likely in greatly dispersed, small patches of open habitats where the forest canopy was broken or on flood plains, and the C 4 biomass increased significantly after ˜3.5 Ma. The oxygen isotope results from Yuanmou (Xiaohe Formation) show a positive shift after ˜8.5 Ma, which is similar in timing and magnitude to δ 18O shifts observed in horses and rhinos from the Linxia Basin and in fossils and paleosols from Pakistan and Nepal, suggesting a shift toward a drier climate at the northeast, southeast, and southern borders of the Tibetan Plateau during the late Miocene. Taken together, the carbon and oxygen isotope data indicate a general drying of the local climate over time and a change from a largely dense-forest environment at ˜8 Ma to a more open environment with a mosaic of forests and grasslands after 3-4 Ma in the Yuanmou region. Intra-tooth δ 13C and δ 18O variations within individual fossil teeth from Yuanmou suggest a stronger seasonality of rainfall at ˜1.7 Ma than in the late Miocene. The spatial and temporal δ 13C and δ 18O variations observed in mammalian teeth from Yunnan likely reflect changes in regional climate and/or tectonics, but more data are needed to fully explore the significance of the regional patterns in the δ 18O and δ 13C data in relation to climate and tectonic evolution of the region.

  7. Peatland development and paleoclimate records from the Holocene peat archive in the foothills of the Eastern Sayan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodionova, A. B.; Grenaderova, A. V.

    2018-03-01

    Plant macrofossils data were used to identify the successive peatland communities during the last 3500 years in the floodplain of the Mana River (foothills of the Eastern Sayan Mountains). The reconstruction of the peatland development indicated that the peatland in the Mana River basin formed about 3500 years ago. The peatland formed as a result of overgrowing floodplain and water logging of terrace lows. The authors observed three successive changes: birch forest with sedge and hypnum mosses in the second half of the Subboreal period, wood-marsh plant association at the start of the Middle Subatlantic period (1600 years BP), the herb-wort phytocoenosis with inclusions of mezoeutrophycal plant species have been growing since the Late Subboreal period (950 years BP).

  8. Three distinct Holocene intervals of stalagmite deposition and nondeposition revealed in NW Madagascar, and their paleoclimate implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riavo Gilbertinie Voarintsoa, Ny; Railsback, Loren Bruce; Brook, George Albert; Wang, Lixin; Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Li, Xianglei; Edwards, Richard Lawrence; Rakotondrazafy, Amos Fety Michel; Olga Madison Razanatseheno, Marie

    2017-12-01

    Petrographic features, mineralogy, and stable isotopes from two stalagmites, ANJB-2 and MAJ-5, respectively from Anjohibe and Anjokipoty caves, allow distinction of three intervals of the Holocene in NW Madagascar. The Malagasy early Holocene (between ca. 9.8 and 7.8 ka) and late Holocene (after ca. 1.6 ka) intervals (MEHI and MLHI, respectively) record evidence of stalagmite deposition. The Malagasy middle Holocene interval (MMHI, between ca. 7.8 and 1.6 ka) is marked by a depositional hiatus of ca. 6500 years. Deposition of these stalagmites indicates that the two caves were sufficiently supplied with water to allow stalagmite formation. This suggests that the MEHI and MLHI intervals may have been comparatively wet in NW Madagascar. In contrast, the long-term depositional hiatus during the MMHI implies it was relatively drier than the MEHI and the MLHI. The alternating wet-dry-wet conditions during the Holocene may have been linked to the long-term migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). When the ITCZ's mean position is farther south, NW Madagascar experiences wetter conditions, such as during the MEHI and MLHI, and when it moves north, NW Madagascar climate becomes drier, such as during the MMHI. A similar wet-dry-wet succession during the Holocene has been reported in neighboring locations, such as southeastern Africa. Beyond these three subdivisions, the records also suggest wet conditions around the cold 8.2 ka event, suggesting a causal relationship. However, additional Southern Hemisphere high-resolution data will be needed to confirm this.

  9. High-resolution reconstruction of Arctic paleoclimate derived from 53 million year old kimberlite-hosted Metasequoia wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J. J.; Halfar, J.; Schulze, D.; Gedalof, Z.; Moore, G. W. K.

    2009-04-01

    The recovery of exceptionally well preserved Eocene wood from kimberlite pipes in the Lac de Gras region of the Northwest Territories, Canada, has allowed for the characterization of the local temperature and hydrologic patterns on an annual scale for this arctic ecosystem (present day latitude: 64 deg N). Wood fragments of ancient Metasequoia sp. trees mixed into the crater facies during kimberlite emplacement were recovered from the Ekati and Diavik diamond mines. Wood recovered from the Ekati "Panda" pipe, which has been dated using Rb-Sr age determination at 53.3 +/- 0.6 million years, is unique in that it exhibits extremely low vitrinite reflectance values, comparable to that of modern near-surface peats. The implication is that the wood has undergone minimal thermal or compressional alteration, thus preserving the geochemical signatures originally formed during growth. Ring width measurements representing over 100 years of climate data show congruence between multiple samples, thus enabling the development of a floating master chronology. Patterns contained in this chronology are of particular interest as the early Eocene was characterized by a period of unusual warming that has been compared to modern day climate change. Wood cellulose does not exchange atoms with its surroundings after formation, making it an ideal candidate for stable isotope analysis once it has been separated from associated whole-wood components. A robotic micromilling device was used to collect whole wood samples of latewood from annual tree rings. The α-cellulose in the samples will be isolated and analyzed for δ13C and δ18O, generating a 34-year floating chronology that can be used to reconstruct decadal scale temperature and humidity patterns. Successful application of this technique suggests that a longer Eocene chronology, using additional wood samples recovered from the Panda pipe as well as samples from neighbouring pipes in the Lac de Gras region, can be developed.

  10. Evidencias paleoclimáticas en asentamientos del Alto Piura durante del período Intermedio Temprano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available EVIDENCES PALEOCLIMATIQUES SUR DES SITES DU HAUT PIURA AU COURS DE LA PREMIERE PERIODE INTERMEDIAIRE. Ce travail présente les évidences géomorphologiques observées dans les fouilles archéologiques de Vicús, Haut Piura (1987-1990. Il s’agit, en général, d’altérations causées probablement par des pluies d’intensités diverses qui font penser que l’humidité était plus importante qu’aujourd’hui. Trois événements d’importance sont à détacher : le plus ancien, probablement du 4ème siècle ap. J.C., provoque des dommages importants dans l’architecture et anticipe des changements culturels significatifs qui débouchent sur l’introduction de l’architecture en briques et les éléments de style mochica 2 le suivant a des effets similaires, et même plus percutants et précède une diminution notable des évidences dans l’occupation de la zone. Ensuite, il n’y a pas d’évidences claires de présence mochica. Certains indices permettent de le situer au 6ème siècle ap. J.C. 3 Le troisième est plus récent et précède une occupation Chimú-Inca. Se presenta las evidencias geomorfológicas observadas en las excavaciones arqueológicas llevadas a cabo en Vicús, Alto Piura (1987-1990. En su mayoría se trata de alteraciones probablemente causadas por precipitaciones de diferentes intensidades que hacen pensar en una humedad probablemente algo mayor que en la actualidad. Destacan tres eventos de mayor impacto: 1 El más temprano, probablemente del cuarto siglo d.C., causa daños importantes en la arquitectura y antecede a cambios culturales significativos que llevan a la introducción de la arquitectura de adobes y elementos del estilo Mochica 2 el siguiente tiene efectos similares o aún más impactantes y antecede a una disminución notable de evidencias de ocupación de la zona después de este evento ya no hay evidencias claras de presencia mochica hay algunos indicios que permiten ubicarlo en el sexto siglo d.C. 3 El tercero es más tardío y antecede una ocupación Chimú-Inca. PALEOCLIMATIC EVIDENCES IN ALTO PIURA SITES DURING THE EARLY INTERMEDIATE PERIOD. This paper presents geomorphologic evidences observed during the archaeological excavations conducted at Vicus, Alto Piura (1987-1990. Most of these evidences are alterations caused by rainfall which seem to be related to climatic events showing probably wetter conditions than the present-day weather. Three of these events stand out owing to their impacts: 1 The earliest one, which probably occurred in the 4th century A.D., caused important damage to the architecture, and preceded significant cultural changes that led to the introduction of adobe construction and of the Mochica style. 2 The next one had effects at least as important as the first one, and predated a strong decrease of occupation in the area. After this event, probably occurring during the 6th century A.D., there are no clear signs of Mochica presence any longer. 3 The third one preceded the Chimu-Inca occupation.

  11. Oxygen isotopic composition of mammal bones as a new tool for studying ratios of paleoenvironmental water and paleoclimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longinelli, A.

    1984-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to try to establish quantitative relationships between the average oxygen isotopic composition of local meteoric water, the oxygen isotopic composition of mammal body water and the oxygen isotopic composition of phosphate in mammal bones. These relationships, after calibration of the method on living specimens, would allow quantitative paleoclimatological research based on the measurement of delta 18 O(PO 4 3- ) of fossil mammal bones

  12. Oxygen Isotope Composition of Phytoliths From Australian Tropical Forests: Towards a New Paleoclimate Tool for the Tropical Pacific area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre, A.; Crespin, J.; Sonzogni, C.; Sylvestre, F.; Hilbert, D.

    2008-12-01

    Obtaining new continental δ18Ophytolith records from the tropical pacific area would help to further investigate 1) synchronicity between vegetation and climate changes, and 2) climate interactions between ocean and continent through comparison with oceanic reference δ18O records. In this aim, we produce a calibration of the thermo-dependant relationship between δ18Ophytolith and δ18Orainfall for present phytolith assemblages from Queensland rainforests (Australia). Phytoliths were extracted from soil humic horizons sampled along several elevation, temperature and rainfall gradients. Phytolith samples of 1.6mg were analyzed using a newly calibrated IR-laser fluorination technique, performed after a controlled isotopic exchanged procedure. The long term reproducibility on δ18O measurements is sap should equal to δ18Osoil water. Moreover, because relative humidity is close to 100%, soil evaporation is weak and δ18Osoil water is assumed to be similar to δ18Orainfall. The obtained thermo-dependant relationship between δ18Ophytolith and δ18O mean monthly rainfall of the wet season (r=0.68) is close to the equilibrium fractionation equations obtained for quartz and diatoms. Effects of forest fires on phytoliths dehydration and δ18Ophytolith are tested through heating experiments. Provided that phytolith assemblages present a morphological tropical forest pattern, δ18Ophytolith records from sediments can now be interpreted in term of δ18Osoil water, or δ18Orainfall (provided that no soil evaporation is assumed), and temperature changes. This is a first step in further investigating synchronicity between vegetation changes, global climate changes and ENSO activity in the West-Pacific area.

  13. Organic geochemical characteristics and paleoclimate conditions of the Miocene coals at the Çan-Durali (Çanakkale)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoş-Çebi, Fatma

    2017-05-01

    In this study, n-alkane and isoprenoid, saturated and aromatic biomarker distributions of Miocene coals in the Çan (Çanakkale) region, were studied to investigate organic geochemical characteristics, depositional environment, and hydrocarbon potential of these coals. Çan formation (Middle Miocene) unconformably overlies the basement Çan volcanites (Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene). This formation is composed of lignite, clayey lignite, and ligniferous clayey levels of various thicknesses interlayering with clay and tuffite. The formation represents sediments of small lacustrine basins that are isolated by faults that are formed contemporaneously with Early-Middle Eocene volcanism. Coaliferous units are overlain by lower agglomerate levels. The Rock Eval analyses show that the average TOC (Total Organic Carbon) content of the coal is 53.71% and the average HI (Hydrogen Index) value is 180.5 mgHC/gTOC. OI (Oxygen Index) values (avg. 22.33 mgCO2/gTOC) show that the depositional environment of peat deposits is suboxic. According to HI-Tmax, S2-TOC classification diagrams and Pr/n-C17vs. Ph/n-C18 diagram, the organic matter is composed of Type II and Type III kerogen mixing and represents a transitional environment. In gas chromatograms, n-alkanes with high, mostly odd-numbered carbons are dominant and they are associated with a slight algal contribution. CPI22-30 (Carbon Preference Index) and TARHC (Terrigenous/Aquatic Ratio) values indicate a dominance of high-carbon numbered n-alkanes, indicating the presence of terrestrial organic matter. Paq (aquatic plant n-alkane proxy) values (0.2; 0.3) indicate a climate with relatively wet conditions or low precipitation, the presence of emergent macrophyteses, and the scarcity of hydrophilic plants. Pwax (vascular plant n-alkane proxy) ratio (0.8; 0.7) shows moderately wet conditions and a relatively low water level. The TOC, ACL (n-alkane average chain length), Qwood/grass, Qwood/plant, and Qgrass/plant values indicate the presence of woody plants in a peat bog and relatively wet and moderately warm climate conditions. Based on DBT/P (dibenzothiophene/phenanthrene) ratio, sample Ç-2 points to the character of marine shale and other lacustrines whereas sample Ç-6 indicates fluvial/deltaic depositional environment. Overall, 20S/(20R + 20S), ββ/(αα+ββ) sterane, 22S/(22R + 22S) homohopane, and moretane/hopane ratios that reflect the maturity of organic matter are indicative of immature organic matter. MA(I)/MA(I + II), TA(I)/TA(I + II) and C28TA/(C29MA + C28TA) steroid, MPI, MPR, and MDR ratios calculated from aromatic biomarkers are quite low, which indicate an immature nature. The n-alkane, saturated and aromatic biomarker data on the Çan coals reveal that deposition should have taken place in a terrestrial environment changing from lacustrine to fluvial under predominately suboxic-oxic and acidic conditions.

  14. INTEGRATED GEOLOGIC-ENGINEERING MODEL FOR REEF AND CARBONATE SHOAL RESERVOIRS ASSOCIATED WITH PALEOHIGHS: UPPER JURASSIC SMACKOVER FORMATION, NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ernest A. Mancini

    2004-02-25

    The University of Alabama, in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company, has undertaken an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization and modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary goal of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. Geoscientific reservoir property, geophysical seismic attribute, petrophysical property, and engineering property characterization has shown that reef (thrombolite) and shoal reservoir lithofacies developed on the flanks of high-relief crystalline basement paleohighs (Vocation Field example) and on the crest and flanks of low-relief crystalline basement paleohighs (Appleton Field example). The reef thrombolite lithofacies have higher reservoir quality than the shoal lithofacies due to overall higher permeabilities and greater interconnectivity. Thrombolite dolostone flow units, which are dominated by dolomite intercrystalline and vuggy pores, are characterized by a pore system comprised of a higher percentage of large-sized pores and larger pore throats. Rock-fluid interactions (diagenesis) studies have shown that although the primary control on

  15. Mathematical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten

    2004-01-01

    Developing competences for setting up, analysing and criticising mathematical models are normally seen as relevant only from and above upper secondary level. The general belief among teachers is that modelling activities presuppose conceptual understanding of the mathematics involved. Mathematical...... roots for the construction of important mathematical concepts. In addition competences for setting up, analysing and criticising modelling processes and the possible use of models is a formative aim in this own right for mathematics teaching in general education. The paper presents a theoretical...... modelling, however, can be seen as a practice of teaching that place the relation between real life and mathematics into the centre of teaching and learning mathematics, and this is relevant at all levels. Modelling activities may motivate the learning process and help the learner to establish cognitive...

  16. Mathematical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a thorough introduction to the challenge of applying mathematics in real-world scenarios. Modelling tasks rarely involve well-defined categories, and they often require multidisciplinary input from mathematics, physics, computer sciences, or engineering. In keeping with this spirit of modelling, the book includes a wealth of cross-references between the chapters and frequently points to the real-world context. The book combines classical approaches to modelling with novel areas such as soft computing methods, inverse problems, and model uncertainty. Attention is also paid to the interaction between models, data and the use of mathematical software. The reader will find a broad selection of theoretical tools for practicing industrial mathematics, including the analysis of continuum models, probabilistic and discrete phenomena, and asymptotic and sensitivity analysis.

  17. Model : making

    OpenAIRE

    Bottle, Neil

    2013-01-01

    The Model : making exhibition was curated by Brian Kennedy in collaboration with Allies & Morrison in September 2013. For the London Design Festival, the Model : making exhibition looked at the increased use of new technologies by both craft-makers and architectural model makers. In both practices traditional ways of making by hand are increasingly being combined with the latest technologies of digital imaging, laser cutting, CNC machining and 3D printing. This exhibition focussed on ...

  18. Model building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frampton, Paul H.

    1998-01-01

    In this talk I begin with some general discussion of model building in particle theory, emphasizing the need for motivation and testability. Three illustrative examples are then described. The first is the Left-Right model which provides an explanation for the chirality of quarks and leptons. The second is the 331-model which offers a first step to understanding the three generations of quarks and leptons. Third and last is the SU(15) model which can accommodate the light leptoquarks possibly seen at HERA

  19. Model building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frampton, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    In this talk I begin with some general discussion of model building in particle theory, emphasizing the need for motivation and testability. Three illustrative examples are then described. The first is the Left-Right model which provides an explanation for the chirality of quarks and leptons. The second is the 331-model which offers a first step to understanding the three generations of quarks and leptons. Third and last is the SU(15) model which can accommodate the light leptoquarks possibly seen at HERA. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

  20. Northern hemisphere storm tracks during the last glacial maximum in the PMIP2 ocean-atmosphere coupled models: energetic study, seasonal cycle, precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laine, A.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Peterschmitt, J.Y. [LSCE/IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 1572, CE Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Salas-Melia, D.; Voldoire, A.; Riviere, G.; Planton, S.; Tyteca, S. [CNRM-GAME, URA CNRS-Meteo-France 1357, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France)

    2009-04-15

    Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by

  1. Carbon isotope exchange between gaseous CO2 and thin solution films: Artificial cave experiments and a complete diffusion-reaction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Maximilian; Scholz, Denis; Froeschmann, Marie-Louise; Schöne, Bernd R.; Spötl, Christoph

    2017-08-01

    Speleothem stable carbon isotope (δ13C) records provide important paleoclimate and paleo-environmental information. However, the interpretation of these records in terms of past climate or environmental change remains challenging because of various processes affecting the δ13C signals. A process that has only been sparsely discussed so far is carbon isotope exchange between the gaseous CO2 of the cave atmosphere and the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) contained in the thin solution film on the speleothem, which may be particularly important for strongly ventilated caves. Here we present a novel, complete reaction diffusion model describing carbon isotope exchange between gaseous CO2 and the DIC in thin solution films. The model considers all parameters affecting carbon isotope exchange, such as diffusion into, out of and within the film, the chemical reactions occurring within the film as well as the dependence of diffusion and the reaction rates on isotopic mass and temperature. To verify the model, we conducted laboratory experiments under completely controlled, cave-analogue conditions at three different temperatures (10, 20, 30 °C). We exposed thin (≈0.1 mm) films of a NaHCO3 solution with four different concentrations (1, 2, 5 and 10 mmol/l, respectively) to a nitrogen atmosphere containing a specific amount of CO2 (1000 and 3000 ppmV). The experimentally observed temporal evolution of the pH and δ13C values of the DIC is in good agreement with the model predictions. The carbon isotope exchange times in our experiments range from ca. 200 to ca. 16,000 s and strongly depend on temperature, film thickness, atmospheric pCO2 and the concentration of DIC. For low pCO2 (between 500 and 1000 ppmV, as for strongly ventilated caves), our time constants are substantially lower than those derived in a previous study, suggesting a potentially stronger influence of carbon isotope exchange on speleothem δ13C values. However, this process should only have an

  2. Climate Reconstructions of the Younger Dryas: An ELA Model Investigating Variability in ELA Depressions, Temperature, and Precipitation Changes for the Graubϋnden Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, D. G.; Rupper, S.; Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    The high sensitivity of mountain glaciers to even small perturbations in climate, combined with a near global distribution, make alpine glaciers an important target for terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions. The geomorphic remnant of past glaciers can yield important insights into past climate, particularly in regions where other methods of reconstruction are not possible. The quantitative conversion of these changes in geomorphology to a climate signal, however, presents a significant challenge. A particular need exists for a versatile climate reconstruction method applicable to diverse glacierized regions around the globe. Because the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) provides a more explicit comparison of climate than properties such as glacier length or area, ELA methods lend themselves well to such a need, and allow for a more direct investigation of the primary drivers of mountain glaciations during specific events. Here, we present an ELA model for quantifying changes in climate based on changes in glacier extent, while accounting for differences in glacier width, glacier shape, bed topography, ice thickness, and glacier length. The model furthermore provides bounds on the ΔELA using Monte Carlo simulations. These methods are validated using published mass balances and ELA measurements from 4 modern glaciers in the European Alps. We then use this ELA model, combined with a surface mass and energy balance model, to estimate the changes in temperature/precipitation between the Younger Dryas (constrained by 10Be surface exposure ages) and the present day for three glacier systems in the Graubϋnden Alps. Our results indicate an ELA depression in this area of 257 m ±45 m during the Younger Dryas (YD) relative to today. This corresponds to a 1.3 °C ±0.36 °C decrease in temperature or a 156% ±30% increase in precipitation relative to today. These results indicate the likelihood of a predominantly temperature-driven change rather than a strong

  3. Modeling Documents with Event Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longhui Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

  4. Animal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, Jens Peter; Krentz, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    In this issue of Cardiovascular Endocrinology, we are proud to present a broad and dedicated spectrum of reviews on animal models in cardiovascular disease. The reviews cover most aspects of animal models in science from basic differences and similarities between small animals and the human...

  5. Battery Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongerden, M.R.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    The use of mobile devices is often limited by the capacity of the employed batteries. The battery lifetime determines how long one can use a device. Battery modeling can help to predict, and possibly extend this lifetime. Many different battery models have been developed over the years. However,

  6. Didactical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højgaard, Tomas; Hansen, Rune

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce Didactical Modelling as a research methodology in mathematics education. We compare the methodology with other approaches and argue that Didactical Modelling has its own specificity. We discuss the methodological “why” and explain why we find it useful...

  7. Design modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kempen, van A.; Kok, H.; Wagter, H.

    1992-01-01

    In Computer Aided Drafting three groups of three-dimensional geometric modelling can be recognized: wire frame, surface and solid modelling. One of the methods to describe a solid is by using a boundary based representation. The topology of the surface of a solid is the adjacency information between

  8. Education models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poortman, Sybilla; Sloep, Peter

    2006-01-01

    Educational models describes a case study on a complex learning object. Possibilities are investigated for using this learning object, which is based on a particular educational model, outside of its original context. Furthermore, this study provides advice that might lead to an increase in

  9. VENTILATION MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    V. Chipman

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of the Ventilation Model is to simulate the heat transfer processes in and around waste emplacement drifts during periods of forced ventilation. The model evaluates the effects of emplacement drift ventilation on the thermal conditions in the emplacement drifts and surrounding rock mass, and calculates the heat removal by ventilation as a measure of the viability of ventilation to delay the onset of peak repository temperature and reduce its magnitude. The heat removal by ventilation is temporally and spatially dependent, and is expressed as the fraction of heat carried away by the ventilation air compared to the fraction of heat produced by radionuclide decay. One minus the heat removal is called the wall heat fraction, or the remaining amount of heat that is transferred via conduction to the surrounding rock mass. Downstream models, such as the ''Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model'' (BSC 2001), use the wall heat fractions as outputted from the Ventilation Model to initialize their postclosure analyses

  10. Modelling Constructs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2009-01-01

    , these notations have been extended in order to increase expressiveness and to be more competitive. This resulted in an increasing number of notations and formalisms for modelling business processes and in an increase of the different modelling constructs provided by modelling notations, which makes it difficult......There are many different notations and formalisms for modelling business processes and workflows. These notations and formalisms have been introduced with different purposes and objectives. Later, influenced by other notations, comparisons with other tools, or by standardization efforts...... to compare modelling notations and to make transformations between them. One of the reasons is that, in each notation, the new concepts are introduced in a different way by extending the already existing constructs. In this chapter, we go the opposite direction: We show that it is possible to add most...

  11. Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics in the stable oxygen isotope compositions of water pools in a temperate humid grassland ecosystem: results from MIBA sampling and MuSICA modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirl, Regina; Schnyder, Hans; Auerswald, Karl; Vetter, Sylvia; Ostler, Ulrike; Schleip, Inga; Wingate, Lisa; Ogée, Jérôme

    2015-04-01

    The oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of water in terrestrial ecosystems usually shows strong and dynamic variations within and between the various compartments. These variations originate from changes in the δ18O of water inputs (e.g. rain or water vapour) and from 18O fractionation phenomena in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Investigations of δ18O in ecosystem water pools and of their main drivers can help us understand water relations at plant, canopy or ecosystem scale and interpret δ18O signals in plant and animal tissues as paleo-climate proxies. During the vegetation periods of 2006 to 2012, soil, leaf and stem water as well as atmospheric humidity, rain water and groundwater were sampled at bi-weekly intervals in a temperate humid pasture of the Grünschwaige Grassland Research Station near Munich (Germany). The sampling was performed following standardised MIBA (Moisture Isotopes in the Biosphere and Atmosphere) protocols. Leaf water samples were prepared from a mixture of co-dominant species in the plant community in order to obtain a canopy-scale leaf water δ18O signal. All samples were then analysed for their δ18O compositions. The measured δ18O of leaf, stem and soil water were then compared with the δ18O signatures simulated by the process-based isotope-enabled ecosystem model MuSICA (Multi-layer Simulator of the Interactions between a vegetation Canopy and the Atmosphere). MuSICA integrates current mechanistic understanding of processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Hence, the comparison of modelled and measured data allows the identification of gaps in current knowledge and of questions to be tackled in the future. Soil and plant characteristics for model parameterisation were derived from investigations at the experimental site and supplemented by values from the literature. Eddy-covariance measurements of ecosystem CO2 (GPP, NEE) and energy (H, LE) fluxes and soil temperature data were used for model evaluation. The

  12. Calibration of amino acid racemization (AAR) kinetics in United States mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain Quaternary mollusks using 87Sr/ 86Sr analyses: Evaluation of kinetic models and estimation of regional Late Pleistocene temperature history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehmiller, J.F.; Harris, W.B.; Boutin, B.S.; Farrell, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    The use of amino acid racemization (AAR) for estimating ages of Quaternary fossils usually requires a combination of kinetic and effective temperature modeling or independent age calibration of analyzed samples. Because of limited availability of calibration samples, age estimates are often based on model extrapolations from single calibration points over wide ranges of D/L values. Here we present paired AAR and 87Sr/ 86Sr results for Pleistocene mollusks from the North Carolina Coastal Plain, USA. 87Sr/ 86Sr age estimates, derived from the lookup table of McArthur et al. [McArthur, J.M., Howarth, R.J., Bailey, T.R., 2001. Strontium isotopic stratigraphy: LOWESS version 3: best fit to the marine Sr-isotopic curve for 0-509 Ma and accompanying Look-up table for deriving numerical age. Journal of Geology 109, 155-169], provide independent age calibration over the full range of amino acid D/L values, thereby allowing comparisons of alternative kinetic models for seven amino acids. The often-used parabolic kinetic model is found to be insufficient to explain the pattern of racemization, although the kinetic pathways for valine racemization and isoleucine epimerization can be closely approximated with this function. Logarithmic and power law regressions more accurately represent the racemization pathways for all amino acids. The reliability of a non-linear model for leucine racemization, developed and refined over the past 20 years, is confirmed by the 87Sr/ 86Sr age results. This age model indicates that the subsurface record (up to 80m thick) of the North Carolina Coastal Plain spans the entire Quaternary, back to ???2.5Ma. The calibrated kinetics derived from this age model yield an estimate of the effective temperature for the study region of 11??2??C., from which we estimate full glacial (Last Glacial Maximum - LGM) temperatures for the region on the order of 7-10??C cooler than present. These temperatures compare favorably with independent paleoclimate information

  13. STEREOMETRIC MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Grimaldi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available These mandatory guidelines are provided for preparation of papers accepted for publication in the series of Volumes of The The stereometric modelling means modelling achieved with : – the use of a pair of virtual cameras, with parallel axes and positioned at a mutual distance average of 1/10 of the distance camera-object (in practice the realization and use of a stereometric camera in the modeling program; – the shot visualization in two distinct windows – the stereoscopic viewing of the shot while modelling. Since the definition of "3D vision" is inaccurately referred to as the simple perspective of an object, it is required to add the word stereo so that "3D stereo vision " shall stand for "three-dimensional view" and ,therefore, measure the width, height and depth of the surveyed image. Thanks to the development of a stereo metric model , either real or virtual, through the "materialization", either real or virtual, of the optical-stereo metric model made visible with a stereoscope. It is feasible a continuous on line updating of the cultural heritage with the help of photogrammetry and stereometric modelling. The catalogue of the Architectonic Photogrammetry Laboratory of Politecnico di Bari is available on line at: http://rappresentazione.stereofot.it:591/StereoFot/FMPro?-db=StereoFot.fp5&-lay=Scheda&-format=cerca.htm&-view

  14. Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

    2017-03-01

    Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C α RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Tropical Pacific Climate, Carbon, and Ocean Biogeochemical Response to the Central American Seaway in a GFDL Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentman, L. T.; Dunne, J. P.; Stouffer, R. J.; Krasting, J. P.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Toggweiler, J. R.; Broccoli, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    To explore the tropical Pacific climate, carbon, and ocean biogeochemical response to the shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 Ma), we performed a suite of sensitivity experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model, GFDL-ESM2G, varying only the seaway widths and sill depths. These novel ESM simulations include near-final closure of the seaway with a very narrow, 1º grid cell wide opening. Net mass transport through the seaway into the Caribbean is 20.5-23.1 Sv with a deep seaway, but only 14.1 Sv for the wide/shallow seaway because of the inter-basin bi-directional horizontal mass transport. Seaway transport originates from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Pacific and rejoins it in the South Atlantic, reducing the Indonesian Throughflow and transporting heat and salt southward into the South Atlantic, in contrast to present-day and previous seaway simulations. Tropical Pacific mean climate and interannual variability is sensitive to the seaway shoaling, with the largest response to the wider/deeper seaway. In the tropical Pacific, the top 300-m warms 0.4-0.8°C, the equatorial east-west sea surface temperature gradient increases, the north-south sea surface temperature asymmetry at 110°W decreases, thermocline deepens 5-11 m, and the east-west thermocline gradient increases. In the Niño-3 region, ENSO amplitude increases, skewed toward more cold (La Niña) events, El Niño and La Niña develops earlier ( 3 months), the annual cycle weakens and the semi-annual and interannual cycles strengthen from increased symmetry of the north-south sea surface temperature gradient, and atmospheric global teleconnections strengthen with the seaway. The increase in global ocean overturning with the seaway results in a younger average ocean ideal age, reduced dissolved inorganic carbon inventory and marine net primary productivity, and altered inter-basin patterns of surface sediment carbonate

  16. Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain during the period 1701–1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Montávez Gómez

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula during the period 1701–1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800, as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815, at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885–1915 and 1960–1990 and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10–90 and 25–75. The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781–1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960–1990. The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701–1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960–1990. The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960–1990, respectively. Comparison of the distribution

  17. Patterns of LGM precipitation in the U.S. Rocky Mountains: results from regional application of a glacier mass/energy balance and flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J.; Refsnider, K. A.; Plummer, M. A.; Jacobsen, R. E.; Wollenberg, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    Global climate model (GCM) simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) in the western United States predict changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks that would have resulted in significantly less-than-modern precipitation in the Northwest and northern Rockies, and significantly more-than-modern precipitation in the Southwest and southern Rockies. Model simulations also suggest that late Pleistocene pluvial lakes in the intermontane West may have modified local moisture regimes in areas immediately downwind. In this study, we present results of the application of a coupled energy/mass balance and glacier-flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) to reconstructed paleoglaciers in Rocky Mountains of Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, and Wyoming to assess the changes from modern climate that would have been necessary to sustain each glacier in mass-balance equilibrium at its LGM extent. Results demonstrate that strong west-to-east and north-to-south gradients in LGM precipitation, relative to present, would be required if a uniform LGM temperature depression with respect to modern is assumed across the region. At an assumed 7oC temperature depression, approximately modern precipitation would have been necessary to support LGM glaciation in the Colorado Front Range, significantly less than modern precipitation to support glaciation in the Teton Range, and almost twice modern precipitation to sustain glaciers in the Wasatch and Uinta ranges of Utah and the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Range. The observed west-to-east (Utah-to-Colorado) LGM moisture gradient is consistent with precipitation enhancement from pluvial Lake Bonneville, decreasing with distance downwind from the lake. The north-to-south (Wyoming-to-New Mexico) LGM moisture gradient is consistent with a southward LGM displacement of the mean winter storm track associated with the winter position of the Pacific Jet Stream across the western U.S. Our analysis of paleoglacier extents in the Rocky Mountain

  18. Graphical Rasch models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreiner, Svend; Christensen, Karl Bang

    Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models......Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models...

  19. Supernova models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woosley, S.E.; California, University, Livermore, CA); Weaver, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    Recent progress in understanding the observed properties of type I supernovae as a consequence of the thermonuclear detonation of white dwarf stars and the ensuing decay of the Ni-56 produced therein is reviewed. The expected nucleosynthesis and gamma-line spectra for this model of type I explosions and a model for type II explosions are presented. Finally, a qualitatively new approach to the problem of massive star death and type II supernovae based upon a combination of rotation and thermonuclear burning is discussed. While the theoretical results of existing models are predicated upon the assumption of a successful core bounce calculation and the neglect of such two-dimensional effects as rotation and magnetic fields the new model suggests an entirely different scenario in which a considerable portion of the energy carried by an equatorially ejected blob is deposited in the red giant envelope overlying the mantle of the star

  20. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hodges, Wilfrid

    1993-01-01

    An up-to-date and integrated introduction to model theory, designed to be used for graduate courses (for students who are familiar with first-order logic), and as a reference for more experienced logicians and mathematicians.

  1. Markov model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology,. Kharagpur ... the most accepted method for modelling LULCC using current .... We used UTM coordinate system with zone 45 .... need to develop criteria for making decision about.

  2. Energy Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Energy models characterize the energy system, its evolution, and its interactions with the broader economy. The energy system consists of primary resources, including both fossil fuels and renewables; power plants, refineries, and other technologies to process and convert these r...

  3. Linear Models

    CERN Document Server

    Searle, Shayle R

    2012-01-01

    This 1971 classic on linear models is once again available--as a Wiley Classics Library Edition. It features material that can be understood by any statistician who understands matrix algebra and basic statistical methods.

  4. 3D Volume and Morphology of Perennial Cave Ice and Related Geomorphological Models at Scăriloara Ice Cave, Romania, from Structure from Motion, Ground Penetrating Radar and Total Station Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, J.; Onac, B. P.; Kruse, S.; Forray, F. L.

    2017-12-01

    Research at Scăriloara Ice Cave has proceeded for over 150 years, primarily driven by the presence and paleoclimatic importance of the large perennial ice block and various ice speleothems located within its galleries. Previous observations of the ice block led to rudimentary volume estimates of 70,000 to 120,000 cubic meters (m3), prospectively placing it as one of the world's largest cave ice deposits. The cave morphology and the surface of the ice block are now recreated in a total station survey-validated 3D model, produced using Structure from Motion (SfM) software. With the total station survey and the novel use of ArcGIS tools, the SfM validation process is drastically simplified to produce a scaled, georeferenced, and photo-texturized 3D model of the cave environment with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.24 m. Furthermore, ground penetrating radar data was collected and spatially oriented with the total station survey to recreate the ice block basal surface and was combined with the SfM model to create a model of the ice block itself. The resulting ice block model has a volume of over 118,000 m3 with an uncertainty of 9.5%, with additional volumes left un-surveyed. The varying elevation of the ice block basal surface model reflect specific features of the cave roof, such as areas of enlargement, shafts, and potential joints, which offer further validation and inform theories on cave and ice genesis. Specifically, a large depression area was identified as a potential area of initial ice growth. Finally, an ice thickness map was produced that will aid in the designing of future ice coring projects. This methodology presents a powerful means to observe and accurately characterize and measure cave and cave ice morphologies with ease and affordability. Results further establish the significance of Scăriloara's ice block to paleoclimate research, provide insights into cave and ice block genesis, and aid future study design.

  5. Ventilation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaaret, Eimund

    Calculation procedures, used in the design of ventilating systems, which are especially suited for displacement ventilation in addition to linking it to mixing ventilation, are addressed. The two zone flow model is considered and the steady state and transient solutions are addressed. Different methods of supplying air are discussed, and different types of air flow are considered: piston flow, plane flow and radial flow. An evaluation model for ventilation systems is presented.

  6. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  7. Thermocouple modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fryer, M.O.

    1984-01-01

    The temperature measurements provided by thermocouples (TCs) are important for the operation of pressurized water reactors. During severe inadequate core cooling incidents, extreme temperatures may cause type K thermocouples (TCs) used for core exit temperature monitoring to perform poorly. A model of TC electrical behavior has been developed to determine how TCs react under extreme temperatures. The model predicts the voltage output of the TC and its impedance. A series of experiments were conducted on a length of type K thermocouple to validate the model. Impedance was measured at several temperatures between 22 0 C and 1100 0 C and at frequencies between dc and 10 MHz. The model was able to accurately predict impedance over this wide range of conditions. The average percentage difference between experimental data and the model was less than 6.5%. Experimental accuracy was +-2.5%. There is a sriking difference between impedance versus frequency plots at 300 0 C and at higher temperatures. This may be useful in validating TC data during accident conditions

  8. Photoionization Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallman, T.

    2010-01-01

    Warm absorber spectra are characterized by the many lines from partially ionized intermediate-Z elements, and iron, detected with the grating instruments on Chandra and XMM-Newton. If these ions are formed in a gas which is in photoionization equilibrium, they correspond to a broad range of ionization parameters, although there is evidence for certain preferred values. A test for any dynamical model for these outflows is to reproduce these properties, at some level of detail. In this paper we present a statistical analysis of the ionization distribution which can be applied both the observed spectra and to theoretical models. As an example, we apply it to our dynamical models for warm absorber outflows, based on evaporation from the molecular torus.

  9. Reflectance Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. A.; Cooper, K.; Randolph, M.

    1984-01-01

    A classical description of the one dimensional radiative transfer treatment of vegetation canopies was completed and the results were tested against measured prairie (blue grama) and agricultural canopies (soybean). Phase functions are calculated in terms of directly measurable biophysical characteristics of the canopy medium. While the phase functions tend to exhibit backscattering anisotropy, their exact behavior is somewhat more complex and wavelength dependent. A Monte Carlo model was developed that treats soil surfaces with large periodic variations in three dimensions. A photon-ray tracing technology is used. Currently, the rough soil surface is described by analytic functions and appropriate geometric calculations performed. A bidirectional reflectance distribution function is calculated and, hence, available for other atmospheric or canopy reflectance models as a lower boundary condition. This technique is used together with an adding model to calculate several cases where Lambertian leaves possessing anisotropic leaf angle distributions yield non-Lambertian reflectance; similar behavior is exhibited for simulated soil surfaces.

  10. Mathematical modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Eck, Christof; Knabner, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Mathematical models are the decisive tool to explain and predict phenomena in the natural and engineering sciences. With this book readers will learn to derive mathematical models which help to understand real world phenomena. At the same time a wealth of important examples for the abstract concepts treated in the curriculum of mathematics degrees are given. An essential feature of this book is that mathematical structures are used as an ordering principle and not the fields of application. Methods from linear algebra, analysis and the theory of ordinary and partial differential equations are thoroughly introduced and applied in the modeling process. Examples of applications in the fields electrical networks, chemical reaction dynamics, population dynamics, fluid dynamics, elasticity theory and crystal growth are treated comprehensively.

  11. Modelling language

    CERN Document Server

    Cardey, Sylviane

    2013-01-01

    In response to the need for reliable results from natural language processing, this book presents an original way of decomposing a language(s) in a microscopic manner by means of intra/inter‑language norms and divergences, going progressively from languages as systems to the linguistic, mathematical and computational models, which being based on a constructive approach are inherently traceable. Languages are described with their elements aggregating or repelling each other to form viable interrelated micro‑systems. The abstract model, which contrary to the current state of the art works in int

  12. Molecular modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarti Sharma

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of computational chemistry in the development of novel pharmaceuticals is becoming an increasingly important tool. In the past, drugs were simply screened for effectiveness. The recent advances in computing power and the exponential growth of the knowledge of protein structures have made it possible for organic compounds to be tailored to decrease the harmful side effects and increase the potency. This article provides a detailed description of the techniques employed in molecular modeling. Molecular modeling is a rapidly developing discipline, and has been supported by the dramatic improvements in computer hardware and software in recent years.

  13. Supernova models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woosley, S.E.; Weaver, T.A.

    1980-01-01

    Recent progress in understanding the observed properties of Type I supernovae as a consequence of the thermonuclear detonation of white dwarf stars and the ensuing decay of the 56 Ni produced therein is reviewed. Within the context of this model for Type I explosions and the 1978 model for Type II explosions, the expected nucleosynthesis and gamma-line spectra from both kinds of supernovae are presented. Finally, a qualitatively new approach to the problem of massive star death and Type II supernovae based upon a combination of rotation and thermonuclear burning is discussed

  14. From forest to farmland and moraine to meadow: Integrated modeling of Holocene land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J. O.

    2012-12-01

    Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems, many of which are highly valued today as economic, cultural, and ecological resources. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene, both spatially and temporally. In order to address this problem, we combined a global dynamic vegetation model with a new model of preindustrial anthropogenic land cover change. We drive these integrated models with paleoclimate from GCM scenarios, a new synthesis of global demographic, technological, and economic development over preindustrial time, and a global database of historical urbanization covering the last 8000 years. We simulate land cover and land use change, fire, soil erosion, and emissions of CO2 and methane (CH4) from 11,700 years before present to AD 1850. We evaluate our simulations in part with a new set of continental-scale reconstructions of land cover based on records from the Global Pollen Database. Our model results show that climate and tectonic change controlled global land cover in the early Holocene, e.g., shifts in forest biomes in northern continents show an expansion of temperate tree types far to the north of their present day limits, but that by the early Iron Age (1000 BC), humans in Europe, east Asia, and Mesoamerica had a larger influence than natural processes on the landscape. 3000 years before present, anthropogenic deforestation was widespread with most areas of temperate Europe and southwest Asia, east-central China, northern India, and Mesoamerica occupied by a matrix of natural vegetation, cropland and pastures. Burned area and emissions of CO2 and CH4 from wildfires declined slowly over the entire Holocene, as landscape fragmentation and changing agricultural

  15. Painting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baart, F.; Donchyts, G.; van Dam, A.; Plieger, M.

    2015-12-01

    The emergence of interactive art has blurred the line between electronic, computer graphics and art. Here we apply this art form to numerical models. Here we show how the transformation of a numerical model into an interactive painting can both provide insights and solve real world problems. The cases that are used as an example include forensic reconstructions, dredging optimization, barrier design. The system can be fed using any source of time varying vector fields, such as hydrodynamic models. The cases used here, the Indian Ocean (HYCOM), the Wadden Sea (Delft3D Curvilinear), San Francisco Bay (3Di subgrid and Delft3D Flexible Mesh), show that the method used is suitable for different time and spatial scales. High resolution numerical models become interactive paintings by exchanging their velocity fields with a high resolution (>=1M cells) image based flow visualization that runs in a html5 compatible web browser. The image based flow visualization combines three images into a new image: the current image, a drawing, and a uv + mask field. The advection scheme that computes the resultant image is executed in the graphics card using WebGL, allowing for 1M grid cells at 60Hz performance on mediocre graphic cards. The software is provided as open source software. By using different sources for a drawing one can gain insight into several aspects of the velocity fields. These aspects include not only the commonly represented magnitude and direction, but also divergence, topology and turbulence .

  16. Entrepreneurship Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger Lakes Regional Education Center for Economic Development, Mount Morris, NY.

    This guide describes seven model programs that were developed by the Finger Lakes Regional Center for Economic Development (New York) to meet the training needs of female and minority entrepreneurs to help their businesses survive and grow and to assist disabled and dislocated workers and youth in beginning small businesses. The first three models…

  17. Lens Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    Firms consist of people who make decisions to achieve goals. How do these people develop the expectations which underpin the choices they make? The lens model provides one answer to this question. It was developed by cognitive psychologist Egon Brunswik (1952) to illustrate his theory of probabil...

  18. Eclipse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, F.C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of, if one overlooks their idiosyncratic difficulties, what could be learned from the various models about the pulsar wind? The wind model requires an MHD wind from the pulsar, namely, one with enough particles that the Poynting flux of the wind can be thermalized. Otherwise, there is no shock and the pulsar wind simply reflects like a flashlight beam. Additionally, a large flux of energetic radiation from the pulsar is required to accompany the wind and drive the wind off the companion. The magnetosphere model probably requires an EM wind, which is Poynting flux dominated. Reflection in this case would arguably minimize the intimate interaction between the two flows that leads to tail formation and thereby permit a weakly magnetized tail. The occulting disk model also would point to an EM wind so that the interaction would be pushed down onto the companion surface (to form the neutral fountain) and so as to also minimize direct interaction of the wind with the orbiting macroscopic particles

  19. (SSE) model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Simple analytic polynomials have been proposed for estimating solar radiation in the traditional Northern, Central and Southern regions of Malawi. There is a strong agreement between the polynomials and the SSE model with R2 values of 0.988, 0.989 and 0.989 and root mean square errors of 0.061, 0.057 and 0.062 ...

  20. Successful modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna

    Tichelaar and Ruff [1989] propose to “estimate model variance in complicated geophysical problems,” including the determination of focal depth in earthquakes, by means of unconventional statistical methods such as bootstrapping. They are successful insofar as they are able to duplicate the results from more conventional procedures.

  1. Defect modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norgett, M.J.

    1980-01-01

    Calculations, drawing principally on developments at AERE Harwell, of the relaxation about lattice defects are reviewed with emphasis on the techniques required for such calculations. The principles of defect modelling are outlined and various programs developed for defect simulations are discussed. Particular calculations for metals, ionic crystals and oxides, are considered. (UK)

  2. Cadastral Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stubkjær, Erik

    2005-01-01

    to the modeling of an industrial sector, as it aims at rendering the basic concepts that relate to the domain of real estate and the pertinent human activities. The palpable objects are pieces of land and buildings, documents, data stores and archives, as well as persons in their diverse roles as owners, holders...

  3. The Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    About the reconstruction of Palle Nielsen's (f. 1942) work The Model from 1968: a gigantic playground for children in the museum, where they can freely romp about, climb in ropes, crawl on wooden structures, work with tools, jump in foam rubber, paint with finger paints and dress up in costumes....

  4. Biotran model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenzel, W.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Rodgers, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    The BIOTRAN model was developed at Los Alamos to help predict short- and long-term consequences to man from releases of radionuclides into the environment. It is a dynamic model that simulates on a daily and yearly basis the flux of biomass, water, and radionuclides through terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Biomass, water, and radionuclides are driven within the ecosystems by climate variables stochastically generated by BIOTRAN each simulation day. The climate variables influence soil hydraulics, plant growth, evapotranspiration, and particle suspension and deposition. BIOTRAN has 22 different plant growth strategies for simulating various grasses, shrubs, trees, and crops. Ruminants and humans are also dynamically simulated by using the simulated crops and forage as intake for user-specified diets. BIOTRAN has been used at Los Alamos for long-term prediction of health effects to populations following potential accidental releases of uranium and plutonium. Newly developed subroutines are described: a human dynamic physiological and metabolic model; a soil hydrology and irrigation model; limnetic nutrient and radionuclide cycling in fresh-water lakes. 7 references

  5. Turbulence Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mogens Peter; Shui, Wan; Johansson, Jens

    2011-01-01

    term with stresses depending linearly on the strain rates. This term takes into account the transfer of linear momentum from one part of the fluid to another. Besides there is another term, which takes into account the transfer of angular momentum. Thus the model implies a new definition of turbulence...

  6. Hydroballistics Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    thai h’liathe0in antd is finaull’ %IIIrd alt %tramlit And drohlttle. Mike aplpars Ito inua•,e upward in outler a rei and dowoi. ward it %iunr areli, Oil...fiducial marks should be constant and the edges phobic nor hydrophilic is better for routine sharpl ) defined. model testing. Before each launching in

  7. Molecular Modeling

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 9; Issue 5. Molecular Modeling: A Powerful Tool for Drug Design and Molecular Docking. Rama Rao Nadendla. General Article Volume 9 Issue 5 May 2004 pp 51-60. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  8. Criticality Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsaed, A.

    2004-01-01

    The ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2003) presents the methodology for evaluating potential criticality situations in the monitored geologic repository. As stated in the referenced Topical Report, the detailed methodology for performing the disposal criticality analyses will be documented in model reports. Many of the models developed in support of the Topical Report differ from the definition of models as given in the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management procedure AP-SIII.10Q, ''Models'', in that they are procedural, rather than mathematical. These model reports document the detailed methodology necessary to implement the approach presented in the Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report and provide calculations utilizing the methodology. Thus, the governing procedure for this type of report is AP-3.12Q, ''Design Calculations and Analyses''. The ''Criticality Model'' is of this latter type, providing a process evaluating the criticality potential of in-package and external configurations. The purpose of this analysis is to layout the process for calculating the criticality potential for various in-package and external configurations and to calculate lower-bound tolerance limit (LBTL) values and determine range of applicability (ROA) parameters. The LBTL calculations and the ROA determinations are performed using selected benchmark experiments that are applicable to various waste forms and various in-package and external configurations. The waste forms considered in this calculation are pressurized water reactor (PWR), boiling water reactor (BWR), Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), Training Research Isotope General Atomic (TRIGA), Enrico Fermi, Shippingport pressurized water reactor, Shippingport light water breeder reactor (LWBR), N-Reactor, Melt and Dilute, and Fort Saint Vrain Reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The scope of this analysis is to document the criticality computational method. The criticality

  9. Building Models and Building Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kaj; Skauge, Jørn

    2008-01-01

    I rapportens indledende kapitel beskrives de primære begreber vedrørende bygningsmodeller og nogle fundamentale forhold vedrørende computerbaseret modulering bliver opstillet. Desuden bliver forskellen mellem tegneprogrammer og bygnings­model­lerings­programmer beskrevet. Vigtige aspekter om comp...

  10. Persistent Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2012-01-01

    The relationship between representation and the represented is examined here through the notion of persistent modelling. This notion is not novel to the activity of architectural design if it is considered as describing a continued active and iterative engagement with design concerns – an evident....... It also provides critical insight into the use of contemporary modelling tools and methods, together with an examination of the implications their use has within the territories of architectural design, realisation and experience....... on this subject, this book makes essential reading for anyone considering new ways of thinking about architecture. In drawing upon both historical and contemporary perspectives this book provides evidence of the ways in which relations between representation and the represented continue to be reconsidered...

  11. Persistent Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The relationship between representation and the represented is examined here through the notion of persistent modelling. This notion is not novel to the activity of architectural design if it is considered as describing a continued active and iterative engagement with design concerns – an evident....... It also provides critical insight into the use of contemporary modelling tools and methods, together with an examination of the implications their use has within the territories of architectural design, realisation and experience....... on this subject, this book makes essential reading for anyone considering new ways of thinking about architecture. In drawing upon both historical and contemporary perspectives this book provides evidence of the ways in which relations between representation and the represented continue to be reconsidered...

  12. Acyclic models

    CERN Document Server

    Barr, Michael

    2002-01-01

    Acyclic models is a method heavily used to analyze and compare various homology and cohomology theories appearing in topology and algebra. This book is the first attempt to put together in a concise form this important technique and to include all the necessary background. It presents a brief introduction to category theory and homological algebra. The author then gives the background of the theory of differential modules and chain complexes over an abelian category to state the main acyclic models theorem, generalizing and systemizing the earlier material. This is then applied to various cohomology theories in algebra and topology. The volume could be used as a text for a course that combines homological algebra and algebraic topology. Required background includes a standard course in abstract algebra and some knowledge of topology. The volume contains many exercises. It is also suitable as a reference work for researchers.

  13. Molecular Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarti Sharma

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available

    The use of computational chemistry in the development of novel pharmaceuticals is becoming an increasingly important
    tool. In the past, drugs were simply screened for effectiveness. The recent advances in computing power and
    the exponential growth of the knowledge of protein structures have made it possible for organic compounds to tailored to
    decrease harmful side effects and increase the potency. This article provides a detailed description of the techniques
    employed in molecular modeling. Molecular modelling is a rapidly developing discipline, and has been supported from
    the dramatic improvements in computer hardware and software in recent years.

  14. RNICE Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mogens Jin; Stritch, Justin Michael

    2018-01-01

    Replication studies relate to the scientific principle of replicability and serve the significant purpose of providing supporting (or contradicting) evidence regarding the existence of a phenomenon. However, replication has never been an integral part of public administration and management...... research. Recently, scholars have issued calls for more replication, but academic reflections on when replication adds substantive value to public administration and management research are needed. This concise article presents a conceptual model, RNICE, for assessing when and how a replication study...... contributes knowledge about a social phenomenon and advances knowledge in the public administration and management literatures. The RNICE model provides a vehicle for researchers who seek to evaluate or demonstrate the value of a replication study systematically. We illustrate the practical application...

  15. Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi

    2016-01-01

    Recent advancements in set theory and readily available software have enabled social science researchers to bridge the variable-centered quantitative and case-based qualitative methodological paradigms in order to analyze multi-dimensional associations beyond the linearity assumptions, aggregate...... effects, unicausal reduction, and case specificity. Based on the developments in set theoretical thinking in social sciences and employing methods like Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), and set visualization techniques, in this position paper, we propose...... and demonstrate a new approach to maturity models in the domain of Information Systems. This position paper describes the set-theoretical approach to maturity models, presents current results and outlines future research work....

  16. Modelling Defiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork Petersen, Franziska

    2013-01-01

    advantageous manner. Stepping on the catwalk’s sloping, moving surfaces decelerates the models’ walk and makes it cautious, hesitant and shaky: suddenly the models lack exactly the affirmative, staccato, striving quality of motion, and the condescending expression that they perform on most contemporary......For the presentation of his autumn/winter 2012 collection in Paris and subsequently in Copenhagen, Danish designer Henrik Vibskov installed a mobile catwalk. The article investigates the choreographic impact of this scenography on those who move through it. Drawing on Dance Studies, the analytical...... focus centres on how the catwalk scenography evokes a ‘defiguration’ of the walking models and to what effect. Vibskov’s mobile catwalk draws attention to the walk, which is a key element of models’ performance but which usually functions in fashion shows merely to present clothes in the most...

  17. Cheating models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnoldi, Jakob

    The article discusses the use of algorithmic models for so-called High Frequency Trading (HFT) in finance. HFT is controversial yet widespread in modern financial markets. It is a form of automated trading technology which critics among other things claim can lead to market manipulation. Drawing....... The article analyses these challenges and argues that we witness a new post-social form of human-technology interaction that will lead to a reconfiguration of professional codes for financial trading....

  18. Biomimetic modelling.

    OpenAIRE

    Vincent, Julian F V

    2003-01-01

    Biomimetics is seen as a path from biology to engineering. The only path from engineering to biology in current use is the application of engineering concepts and models to biological systems. However, there is another pathway: the verification of biological mechanisms by manufacture, leading to an iterative process between biology and engineering in which the new understanding that the engineering implementation of a biological system can bring is fed back into biology, allowing a more compl...

  19. Ozone modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McIllvaine, C M

    1994-07-01

    Exhaust gases from power plants that burn fossil fuels contain concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitric oxide (NO), particulate matter, hydrocarbon compounds and trace metals. Estimated emissions from the operation of a hypothetical 500 MW coal-fired power plant are given. Ozone is considered a secondary pollutant, since it is not emitted directly into the atmosphere but is formed from other air pollutants, specifically, nitrogen oxides (NO), and non-methane organic compounds (NMOQ) in the presence of sunlight. (NMOC are sometimes referred to as hydrocarbons, HC, or volatile organic compounds, VOC, and they may or may not include methane). Additionally, ozone formation Alternative is a function of the ratio of NMOC concentrations to NO{sub x} concentrations. A typical ozone isopleth is shown, generated with the Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) option of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Ozone Isopleth Plotting Mechanism (OZIPM-4) model. Ozone isopleth diagrams, originally generated with smog chamber data, are more commonly generated with photochemical reaction mechanisms and tested against smog chamber data. The shape of the isopleth curves is a function of the region (i.e. background conditions) where ozone concentrations are simulated. The location of an ozone concentration on the isopleth diagram is defined by the ratio of NMOC and NO{sub x} coordinates of the point, known as the NMOC/NO{sub x} ratio. Results obtained by the described model are presented.

  20. Ozone modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIllvaine, C.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaust gases from power plants that burn fossil fuels contain concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitric oxide (NO), particulate matter, hydrocarbon compounds and trace metals. Estimated emissions from the operation of a hypothetical 500 MW coal-fired power plant are given. Ozone is considered a secondary pollutant, since it is not emitted directly into the atmosphere but is formed from other air pollutants, specifically, nitrogen oxides (NO), and non-methane organic compounds (NMOQ) in the presence of sunlight. (NMOC are sometimes referred to as hydrocarbons, HC, or volatile organic compounds, VOC, and they may or may not include methane). Additionally, ozone formation Alternative is a function of the ratio of NMOC concentrations to NO x concentrations. A typical ozone isopleth is shown, generated with the Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) option of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Ozone Isopleth Plotting Mechanism (OZIPM-4) model. Ozone isopleth diagrams, originally generated with smog chamber data, are more commonly generated with photochemical reaction mechanisms and tested against smog chamber data. The shape of the isopleth curves is a function of the region (i.e. background conditions) where ozone concentrations are simulated. The location of an ozone concentration on the isopleth diagram is defined by the ratio of NMOC and NO x coordinates of the point, known as the NMOC/NO x ratio. Results obtained by the described model are presented

  1. Animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Ellen A

    2010-01-01

    As clinical studies reveal that chemotherapeutic agents may impair several different cognitive domains in humans, the development of preclinical animal models is critical to assess the degree of chemotherapy-induced learning and memory deficits and to understand the underlying neural mechanisms. In this chapter, the effects of various cancer chemotherapeutic agents in rodents on sensory processing, conditioned taste aversion, conditioned emotional response, passive avoidance, spatial learning, cued memory, discrimination learning, delayed-matching-to-sample, novel-object recognition, electrophysiological recordings and autoshaping is reviewed. It appears at first glance that the effects of the cancer chemotherapy agents in these many different models are inconsistent. However, a literature is emerging that reveals subtle or unique changes in sensory processing, acquisition, consolidation and retrieval that are dose- and time-dependent. As more studies examine cancer chemotherapeutic agents alone and in combination during repeated treatment regimens, the animal models will become more predictive tools for the assessment of these impairments and the underlying neural mechanisms. The eventual goal is to collect enough data to enable physicians to make informed choices about therapeutic regimens for their patients and discover new avenues of alternative or complementary therapies that reduce or eliminate chemotherapy-induced cognitive deficits.

  2. Modeling biomembranes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plimpton, Steven James; Heffernan, Julieanne; Sasaki, Darryl Yoshio; Frischknecht, Amalie Lucile; Stevens, Mark Jackson; Frink, Laura J. Douglas

    2005-11-01

    Understanding the properties and behavior of biomembranes is fundamental to many biological processes and technologies. Microdomains in biomembranes or ''lipid rafts'' are now known to be an integral part of cell signaling, vesicle formation, fusion processes, protein trafficking, and viral and toxin infection processes. Understanding how microdomains form, how they depend on membrane constituents, and how they act not only has biological implications, but also will impact Sandia's effort in development of membranes that structurally adapt to their environment in a controlled manner. To provide such understanding, we created physically-based models of biomembranes. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and classical density functional theory (DFT) calculations using these models were applied to phenomena such as microdomain formation, membrane fusion, pattern formation, and protein insertion. Because lipid dynamics and self-organization in membranes occur on length and time scales beyond atomistic MD, we used coarse-grained models of double tail lipid molecules that spontaneously self-assemble into bilayers. DFT provided equilibrium information on membrane structure. Experimental work was performed to further help elucidate the fundamental membrane organization principles.

  3. Model visionary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandler, Graham

    2011-03-15

    Ken Dedeluk is the president and CEO of Computer Modeling Group (CMG). Dedeluk started his career with Gulf Oil in 1972, worked in computer assisted design; then joined Imperial Esso and Shell, where he became international operations' VP; and finally joined CMG in 1998. CMG made a decision that turned out to be the company's turning point: they decided to provide intensive support and service to their customer to better use their technology. Thanks to this service, their customers' satisfaction grew as well as their revenues.

  4. Model integration and a theory of models

    OpenAIRE

    Dolk, Daniel R.; Kottemann, Jeffrey E.

    1993-01-01

    Model integration extends the scope of model management to include the dimension of manipulation as well. This invariably leads to comparisons with database theory. Model integration is viewed from four perspectives: Organizational, definitional, procedural, and implementational. Strategic modeling is discussed as the organizational motivation for model integration. Schema and process integration are examined as the logical and manipulation counterparts of model integr...

  5. Teachers' Roles, Students' Personalities, Inquiry Learning Outcomes, and Practices of Science and Engineering: The Development and Validation of the McGill Attainment Value for Inquiry Engagement Survey in STEM Disciplines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Ahmed; Aulls, Mark W.; Shore, Bruce M.

    2017-01-01

    Inquiry engagement is a newly defined construct that represents the participation in carrying out practices of science and engineering to achieve learning outcomes and is influenced by learners' personalities and teachers' roles. Expectancy value theory posits that attainment values are important components of task values that, in turn, directly…

  6. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two Interglacials, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for Holocene and Last Interglacial Simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto-Bliesner, B.; Braconnot, P.; Harrison, S.P.; Renssen, H.

    2017-01-01

    Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for Tier 1 simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last

  7. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2 : Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto-bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412549123; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; Legrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

    2017-01-01

    Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last

  8. ALEPH model

    CERN Multimedia

    1989-01-01

    A wooden model of the ALEPH experiment and its cavern. ALEPH was one of 4 experiments at CERN's 27km Large Electron Positron collider (LEP) that ran from 1989 to 2000. During 11 years of research, LEP's experiments provided a detailed study of the electroweak interaction. Measurements performed at LEP also proved that there are three – and only three – generations of particles of matter. LEP was closed down on 2 November 2000 to make way for the construction of the Large Hadron Collider in the same tunnel. The cavern and detector are in separate locations - the cavern is stored at CERN and the detector is temporarily on display in Glasgow physics department. Both are available for loan.

  9. modelling distances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert F. Love

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Distance predicting functions may be used in a variety of applications for estimating travel distances between points. To evaluate the accuracy of a distance predicting function and to determine its parameters, a goodness-of-fit criteria is employed. AD (Absolute Deviations, SD (Squared Deviations and NAD (Normalized Absolute Deviations are the three criteria that are mostly employed in practice. In the literature some assumptions have been made about the properties of each criterion. In this paper, we present statistical analyses performed to compare the three criteria from different perspectives. For this purpose, we employ the ℓkpθ-norm as the distance predicting function, and statistically compare the three criteria by using normalized absolute prediction error distributions in seventeen geographical regions. We find that there exist no significant differences between the criteria. However, since the criterion SD has desirable properties in terms of distance modelling procedures, we suggest its use in practice.

  10. Comparison: Binomial model and Black Scholes model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Ahmad Dar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Binomial Model and the Black Scholes Model are the popular methods that are used to solve the option pricing problems. Binomial Model is a simple statistical method and Black Scholes model requires a solution of a stochastic differential equation. Pricing of European call and a put option is a very difficult method used by actuaries. The main goal of this study is to differentiate the Binominal model and the Black Scholes model by using two statistical model - t-test and Tukey model at one period. Finally, the result showed that there is no significant difference between the means of the European options by using the above two models.

  11. Computational Modeling | Bioenergy | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    cell walls and are the source of biofuels and biomaterials. Our modeling investigates their properties . Quantum Mechanical Models NREL studies chemical and electronic properties and processes to reduce barriers Computational Modeling Computational Modeling NREL uses computational modeling to increase the

  12. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  13. Vector models and generalized SYK models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, Cheng [Department of Physics, Brown University,Providence RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-05-23

    We consider the relation between SYK-like models and vector models by studying a toy model where a tensor field is coupled with a vector field. By integrating out the tensor field, the toy model reduces to the Gross-Neveu model in 1 dimension. On the other hand, a certain perturbation can be turned on and the toy model flows to an SYK-like model at low energy. A chaotic-nonchaotic phase transition occurs as the sign of the perturbation is altered. We further study similar models that possess chaos and enhanced reparameterization symmetries.

  14. Modeling styles in business process modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinggera, J.; Soffer, P.; Zugal, S.; Weber, B.; Weidlich, M.; Fahland, D.; Reijers, H.A.; Mendling, J.; Bider, I.; Halpin, T.; Krogstie, J.; Nurcan, S.; Proper, E.; Schmidt, R.; Soffer, P.; Wrycza, S.

    2012-01-01

    Research on quality issues of business process models has recently begun to explore the process of creating process models. As a consequence, the question arises whether different ways of creating process models exist. In this vein, we observed 115 students engaged in the act of modeling, recording

  15. The IMACLIM model; Le modele IMACLIM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    This document provides annexes to the IMACLIM model which propose an actualized description of IMACLIM, model allowing the design of an evaluation tool of the greenhouse gases reduction policies. The model is described in a version coupled with the POLES, technical and economical model of the energy industry. Notations, equations, sources, processing and specifications are proposed and detailed. (A.L.B.)

  16. From Product Models to Product State Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    A well-known technology designed to handle product data is Product Models. Product Models are in their current form not able to handle all types of product state information. Hence, the concept of a Product State Model (PSM) is proposed. The PSM and in particular how to model a PSM is the Research...

  17. Modelling live forensic acquisition

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Grobler, MM

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the development of a South African model for Live Forensic Acquisition - Liforac. The Liforac model is a comprehensive model that presents a range of aspects related to Live Forensic Acquisition. The model provides forensic...

  18. Models in architectural design

    OpenAIRE

    Pauwels, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Whereas architects and construction specialists used to rely mainly on sketches and physical models as representations of their own cognitive design models, they rely now more and more on computer models. Parametric models, generative models, as-built models, building information models (BIM), and so forth, they are used daily by any practitioner in architectural design and construction. Although processes of abstraction and the actual architectural model-based reasoning itself of course rema...

  19. Rotating universe models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tozini, A.V.

    1984-01-01

    A review is made of some properties of the rotating Universe models. Godel's model is identified as a generalized filted model. Some properties of new solutions of the Einstein's equations, which are rotating non-stationary Universe models, are presented and analyzed. These models have the Godel's model as a particular case. Non-stationary cosmological models are found which are a generalization of the Godel's metrics in an analogous way in which Friedmann is to the Einstein's model. (L.C.) [pt

  20. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kageyama, Masa; Albani, Samuel; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Lambert, Fabrice; Marti, Olivier; Richard Peltier, W.; Peterschmitt, Jean Yves; Roche, Didier M.; Tarasov, Lev; Zhang, Xu; Brady, Esther C.; Haywood, Alan M.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Renssen, Hans; Tomas, Robert A.; Zhang, Qiong; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Cao, Jian; Li, Qiang; Lohmann, Gerrit; Ohgaito, Rumi; Shi, Xiaoxu; Volodin, Evgeny; Yoshida, Kohei; Zhang, Xiao; Zheng, Weipeng

    2017-01-01

    The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea

  1. Proceedings of the national symposium on current trends in geochemistry, exploration and environment: abstract book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    The topics covered in this symposium are solid earth geochemistry and geochemical modeling, precambrian geology, geochemistry and petrogenesis, geochemistry, peterogenisis, sedimentology, chemostratigraphy and paleoclimate, atomic minerals, ferrous/non ferrous minerals, REE minerals, PGE and base metals, oil, hydrocarbons, industrial minerals and gem stones, hydrogeochemistry, environmental geochemistry, biogeochemistry and medical geology and analytical geochemistry and method development. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  2. An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winstrup, Mai; Svensson, A. M.; Rasmussen, S. O.

    2012-01-01

    A novel method for automated annual layer counting in seasonally-resolved paleoclimate records has been developed. It relies on algorithms from the statistical framework of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), which originally was developed for use in machine speech-recognition. The strength of the layer...

  3. An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winstrup, Mai; Svensson, A. M.; Rasmussen, S. O.

    2012-01-01

    A novel method for automated annual layer counting in seasonally-resolved paleoclimate records has been developed. It relies on algorithms from the statistical framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs), which originally was developed for use in machine speech recognition. The strength of the layer...

  4. Pronounced zonal heterogeneity in Eocene southern high-latitude sea surface temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douglas, P.M.J.; Affek, H.P.; Ivany, L.C.; Houben, A.J.P.; Sijp, W.P.; Sluijs, A.; Schouten, S.; Pagani, M.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate studies suggest that increased global warmth during the Eocene epoch was greatly amplified at high latitudes, a state that climate models cannot fully reproduce. However, proxy estimates of Eocene near-Antarctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have produced widely divergent results at

  5. Concept Modeling vs. Data modeling in Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2015-01-01

    This chapter shows the usefulness of terminological concept modeling as a first step in data modeling. First, we introduce terminological concept modeling with terminological ontologies, i.e. concept systems enriched with characteristics modeled as feature specifications. This enables a formal...... account of the inheritance of characteristics and allows us to introduce a number of principles and constraints which render concept modeling more coherent than earlier approaches. Second, we explain how terminological ontologies can be used as the basis for developing conceptual and logical data models....... We also show how to map from the various elements in the terminological ontology to elements in the data models, and explain the differences between the models. Finally the usefulness of terminological ontologies as a prerequisite for IT development and data modeling is illustrated with examples from...

  6. Linking the distribution of carbon isotope ratios in soil carbonates and speleothems to climate conditions in the past: A model for the dependence of respiration rate on soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Ibarra, D. E.; Winnick, M.; Caves Rugenstein, J. K.; Oster, J. L.; Druhan, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    The carbon isotope compositions (δ13C) of atmospheric CO2, C3-origin organic carbon, and limestone epikarst differ substantially, resulting in variable δ13C signatures recorded in secondary soil carbonates and speleothems which represent a mixture of these sources. Even though this signal has been widely used in paleoclimate studies, the extent to which carbonate δ13C is influenced by the dynamic response of organic carbon respiration rates to soil moisture variations has yet to be fully evaluated [1]. Soils that are rewetted after a prolonged drought commonly display a peak in respiration rate followed by relaxation to a lower steady state in both lab incubation experiments and field observations. This transient behavior, known as the Birch effect, has been extensively observed across a broad range of locations and soil types, and may generate more than 50% of the total respired CO2 in some ecosystems [2]. Here, we seek to identify the influence of the Birch effect on carbonate δ13C records based on a moisture-dependent modeling approach. We report compiled respiration rates of soils from the literature and fit these data as a function of soil moisture, before imposing exponential dampening with depth and applying the resulting function in a production-diffusion equation [3]. We then implement a mass balance calculation for the δ13C value of carbonate precipitated from a mixture of atmospheric and respired CO2, including mass-dependent fractionation associated with diffusive transport. Our results offer a novel prediction for depth-resolved carbonate δ13C as a function of soil moisture, and suggest that Birch effect signals may be recorded in soil carbonates and influence the magnitude of carbonate δ13C variations in speleothems. Thus, we illustrate a prediction for the range of carbonate δ13C recorded in terrestrial carbonates and suggest that differences in the range of carbonate δ13C may indicate changes in soil moisture variability, providing a new

  7. Model-to-model interface for multiscale materials modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonelli, Perry Edward [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2017-12-17

    A low-level model-to-model interface is presented that will enable independent models to be linked into an integrated system of models. The interface is based on a standard set of functions that contain appropriate export and import schemas that enable models to be linked with no changes to the models themselves. These ideas are presented in the context of a specific multiscale material problem that couples atomistic-based molecular dynamics calculations to continuum calculations of fluid ow. These simulations will be used to examine the influence of interactions of the fluid with an adjacent solid on the fluid ow. The interface will also be examined by adding it to an already existing modeling code, Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) and comparing it with our own molecular dynamics code.

  8. Cognitive models embedded in system simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Wolf, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    If we are to discuss and consider cognitive models, we must first come to grips with two questions: (1) What is cognition; (2) What is a model. Presumably, the answers to these questions can provide a basis for defining a cognitive model. Accordingly, this paper first places these two questions into perspective. Then, cognitive models are set within the context of computer simulation models and a number of computer simulations of cognitive processes are described. Finally, pervasive issues are discussed vis-a-vis cognitive modeling in the computer simulation context

  9. A Zonal Mode in the Indian Ocean over the Past Millennium? Isotopic Evidence from Continental Climate Archives and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konecky, B.; Russell, J. M.; Vuille, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Cohen, L. R.; Chuman, A. F.; Huang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    excursions in our records resembles the variations associated with the negative mode of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) observed in modern seasonal data. To investigate the potential for an IOZM-like mode to explain multi-decadal phenomena over the past millennium, we compare the variations in our records and in other previously published δ18O and δD records from the region to a model simulation of the past 130 years by the Stable Water Isotope INtercomparison Group (SWING). We find significant multi-decadal isotopic variability associated with the IOZM in the SWING experiment. We analyze the isotopic signature associated with both the IOZM and ENSO and use these findings to help interpret the multi-decadal variability evident in continental paleoclimate archives over the past millennium in the Indian Ocean region.

  10. Model Manipulation for End-User Modelers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acretoaie, Vlad

    , and transformations using their modeling notation and editor of choice. The VM* languages are implemented via a single execution engine, the VM* Runtime, built on top of the Henshin graph-based transformation engine. This approach combines the benefits of flexibility, maturity, and formality. To simplify model editor......End-user modelers are domain experts who create and use models as part of their work. They are typically not Software Engineers, and have little or no programming and meta-modeling experience. However, using model manipulation languages developed in the context of Model-Driven Engineering often...... requires such experience. These languages are therefore only used by a small subset of the modelers that could, in theory, benefit from them. The goals of this thesis are to substantiate this observation, introduce the concepts and tools required to overcome it, and provide empirical evidence in support...

  11. Air Quality Dispersion Modeling - Alternative Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models, not listed in Appendix W, that can be used in regulatory applications with case-by-case justification to the Reviewing Authority as noted in Section 3.2, Use of Alternative Models, in Appendix W.

  12. Topological massive sigma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, N.D.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we construct topological sigma models which include a potential and are related to twisted massive supersymmetric sigma models. Contrary to a previous construction these models have no central charge and do not require the manifold to admit a Killing vector. We use the topological massive sigma model constructed here to simplify the calculation of the observables. Lastly it is noted that this model can be viewed as interpolating between topological massless sigma models and topological Landau-Ginzburg models. ((orig.))

  13. Business Model Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Dodgson, Mark; Gann, David; Phillips, Nelson; Massa, Lorenzo; Tucci, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    The chapter offers a broad review of the literature at the nexus between Business Models and innovation studies, and examines the notion of Business Model Innovation in three different situations: Business Model Design in newly formed organizations, Business Model Reconfiguration in incumbent firms, and Business Model Innovation in the broad context of sustainability. Tools and perspectives to make sense of Business Models and support managers and entrepreneurs in dealing with Business Model ...

  14. [Bone remodeling and modeling/mini-modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoka; Amizuka, Norio

    Modeling, adapting structures to loading by changing bone size and shapes, often takes place in bone of the fetal and developmental stages, while bone remodeling-replacement of old bone into new bone-is predominant in the adult stage. Modeling can be divided into macro-modeling(macroscopic modeling)and mini-modeling(microscopic modeling). In the cellular process of mini-modeling, unlike bone remodeling, bone lining cells, i.e., resting flattened osteoblasts covering bone surfaces will become active form of osteoblasts, and then, deposit new bone onto the old bone without mediating osteoclastic bone resorption. Among the drugs for osteoporotic treatment, eldecalcitol(a vitamin D3 analog)and teriparatide(human PTH[1-34])could show mini-modeling based bone formation. Histologically, mature, active form of osteoblasts are localized on the new bone induced by mini-modeling, however, only a few cell layer of preosteoblasts are formed over the newly-formed bone, and accordingly, few osteoclasts are present in the region of mini-modeling. In this review, histological characteristics of bone remodeling and modeling including mini-modeling will be introduced.

  15. A Model of Trusted Measurement Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ma Zhili; Wang Zhihao; Dai Liang; Zhu Xiaoqin

    2017-01-01

    A model of Trusted Measurement supporting behavior measurement based on trusted connection architecture (TCA) with three entities and three levels is proposed, and a frame to illustrate the model is given. The model synthesizes three trusted measurement dimensions including trusted identity, trusted status and trusted behavior, satisfies the essential requirements of trusted measurement, and unified the TCA with three entities and three levels.

  16. Modelling binary data

    CERN Document Server

    Collett, David

    2002-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Some Examples The Scope of this Book Use of Statistical Software STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR BINARY DATA The Binomial Distribution Inference about the Success Probability Comparison of Two Proportions Comparison of Two or More Proportions MODELS FOR BINARY AND BINOMIAL DATA Statistical Modelling Linear Models Methods of Estimation Fitting Linear Models to Binomial Data Models for Binomial Response Data The Linear Logistic Model Fitting the Linear Logistic Model to Binomial Data Goodness of Fit of a Linear Logistic Model Comparing Linear Logistic Models Linear Trend in Proportions Comparing Stimulus-Response Relationships Non-Convergence and Overfitting Some other Goodness of Fit Statistics Strategy for Model Selection Predicting a Binary Response Probability BIOASSAY AND SOME OTHER APPLICATIONS The Tolerance Distribution Estimating an Effective Dose Relative Potency Natural Response Non-Linear Logistic Regression Models Applications of the Complementary Log-Log Model MODEL CHECKING Definition of Re...

  17. Modelling freight transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Jong, G. de

    2014-01-01

    Freight Transport Modelling is a unique new reference book that provides insight into the state-of-the-art of freight modelling. Focusing on models used to support public transport policy analysis, Freight Transport Modelling systematically introduces the latest freight transport modelling

  18. Semantic Business Process Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Markovic, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    This book presents a process-oriented business modeling framework based on semantic technologies. The framework consists of modeling languages, methods, and tools that allow for semantic modeling of business motivation, business policies and rules, and business processes. Quality of the proposed modeling framework is evaluated based on the modeling content of SAP Solution Composer and several real-world business scenarios.

  19. Modelling of Hydraulic Robot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Zhou, Jianjun; Hansen, Lars Henrik

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes a case study of identifying the physical model (or the grey box model) of a hydraulic test robot. The obtained model is intended to provide a basis for model-based control of the robot. The physical model is formulated in continuous time and is derived by application...

  20. Model-Independent Diffs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    just contain a list of strings, one for each line, whereas the structure of models is defined by their meta models. There are tools available which are able to compute the diff between two models, e.g. RSA or EMF Compare. However, their diff is not model-independent, i.e. it refers to the models...

  1. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  2. Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

    2003-01-01

    To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

  3. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Clayton

    2000-12-19

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the

  4. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and

  5. Past Holocene detritism quantification and modeling from lacustrine archives in order to deconvoluate human-climate interactions on natural ecosystem over long time-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Chapron, Emmanuel; Di Giovanni, Christian; Galop, Didier; Darboux, Frédéric

    2014-05-01

    Water budget is one of the main challenges to paleoclimate researchers in relation to present-day global warming and its consequences for human societies. Associated soil degradation and erosion are thereby becoming a major concern in many parts of the world and more particularly in the Alps. Moreover, humans are considered as geomorphologic agents since few thousand years and it is now recognized that such an impact on natural ecosystem profoundly modified soils properties as well as aquatic ecosystems dynamics over long-term periods. The quantification of such inference over long time-scale is therefore essential to establish new policies to reduce mechanic soil erosion, which is one of the dominant processes in Europe, and anticipate the potential consequences of future climate change on hydric erosion. The mechanical erosion of continental surfaces results from climatic forcing, but can be amplified by the anthropogenic one. We therefore suggest that quantifying and modelling soil erosion processes within comparable Holocene lacustrine archives, allows to estimate and date which and when past human activities have had an impact on soil fluxes over the last 10000 years. Based on the present-day geomorphology of the surrounding watershed and the evolution of the vegetation cover during the Holocene, we develop an interdisciplinary approach combining quantitative organic petrography (i.e. optical characterization and quantification of soil particles within lake sediments) with high-resolution seismic profiling, age-depth models on lacustrine sediment cores and soil erosional susceptibility modeling, in order to estimate the annual volume of soil eroded over the last 10000 years, and in fine to quantify the volume of human-induced soil erosion during the Holocene period. This method is applied to close but contrasted mountainous lacustrine environments from the western French Alps: lakes Blanc Huez and Paladru, sensitive to same climatic influences but where past

  6. Lapse rate modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  7. Lapse Rate Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  8. Multivariate GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes nonparametric and semiparametric models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical example...

  9. Collaborative networks: Reference modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Camarinha-Matos, L.M.; Afsarmanesh, H.

    2008-01-01

    Collaborative Networks: Reference Modeling works to establish a theoretical foundation for Collaborative Networks. Particular emphasis is put on modeling multiple facets of collaborative networks and establishing a comprehensive modeling framework that captures and structures diverse perspectives of

  10. Models in Action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Joakim

    This thesis is about mathematical modelling and technology development. While mathematical modelling has become widely deployed within a broad range of scientific practices, it has also gained a central position within technology development. The intersection of mathematical modelling and technol...

  11. Business Model Canvas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D'Souza, Austin

    2013-01-01

    Presentatie gegeven op 13 mei 2013 op de bijeenkomst "Business Model Canvas Challenge Assen".
    Het Business Model Canvas is ontworpen door Alex Osterwalder. Het model werkt zeer overzichtelijk en bestaat uit negen bouwstenen.

  12. Energy modelling software

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Osburn, L

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry has turned to energy modelling in order to assist them in reducing the amount of energy consumed by buildings. However, while the energy loads of buildings can be accurately modelled, energy models often under...

  13. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  14. Mathematical Modeling Using MATLAB

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Phillips, Donovan

    1998-01-01

    .... Mathematical Modeling Using MA MATLAB acts as a companion resource to A First Course in Mathematical Modeling with the goal of guiding the reader to a fuller understanding of the modeling process...

  15. Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Counterinsurgency, Situational Awareness, Civilians, Lanchester 1. Introduction Combat modeling is one of the oldest areas of operations research, dating...Army. The ground-breaking work of Lanchester in 1916 [1] marks the beginning of formal models of conflicts, where mathematical formulas and, later...Warfare model [3], which is a Lanchester - based mathematical model (see more details about this model later on), and McCormick’s Magic Diamond model [4

  16. Computational neurogenetic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Benuskova, Lubica

    2010-01-01

    Computational Neurogenetic Modeling is a student text, introducing the scope and problems of a new scientific discipline - Computational Neurogenetic Modeling (CNGM). CNGM is concerned with the study and development of dynamic neuronal models for modeling brain functions with respect to genes and dynamic interactions between genes. These include neural network models and their integration with gene network models. This new area brings together knowledge from various scientific disciplines, such as computer and information science, neuroscience and cognitive science, genetics and molecular biol

  17. Environmental Modeling Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  18. Multilevel modeling using R

    CERN Document Server

    Finch, W Holmes; Kelley, Ken

    2014-01-01

    A powerful tool for analyzing nested designs in a variety of fields, multilevel/hierarchical modeling allows researchers to account for data collected at multiple levels. Multilevel Modeling Using R provides you with a helpful guide to conducting multilevel data modeling using the R software environment.After reviewing standard linear models, the authors present the basics of multilevel models and explain how to fit these models using R. They then show how to employ multilevel modeling with longitudinal data and demonstrate the valuable graphical options in R. The book also describes models fo

  19. Cosmological models without singularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petry, W.

    1981-01-01

    A previously studied theory of gravitation in flat space-time is applied to homogeneous and isotropic cosmological models. There exist two different classes of models without singularities: (i) ever-expanding models, (ii) oscillating models. The first class contains models with hot big bang. For these models there exist at the beginning of the universe-in contrast to Einstein's theory-very high but finite densities of matter and radiation with a big bang of very short duration. After short time these models pass into the homogeneous and isotropic models of Einstein's theory with spatial curvature equal to zero and cosmological constant ALPHA >= O. (author)

  20. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  1. What controls the stable isotope composition of precipitation in the Mekong Delta? A model-based statistical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Le Duy

    2018-02-01

    place mainly in the dry season, either locally for δ18O and δ2H, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach, the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors. The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.

  2. What controls the stable isotope composition of precipitation in the Mekong Delta? A model-based statistical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Duy, Nguyen; Heidbüchel, Ingo; Meyer, Hanno; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

    2018-02-01

    for δ18O and δ2H, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach), the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors. The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.

  3. ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clinton Lum

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS MandO 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3) Development of geostatistical simulations of porosity; (4

  4. Integrated Site Model Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, T.

    2000-01-01

    The Integrated Site Model (ISM) provides a framework for discussing the geologic features and properties of Yucca Mountain, which is being evaluated as a potential site for a geologic repository for the disposal of nuclear waste. The ISM is important to the evaluation of the site because it provides 3-D portrayals of site geologic, rock property, and mineralogic characteristics and their spatial variabilities. The ISM is not a single discrete model; rather, it is a set of static representations that provide three-dimensional (3-D), computer representations of site geology, selected hydrologic and rock properties, and mineralogic-characteristics data. These representations are manifested in three separate model components of the ISM: the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Rock Properties Model (RPM), and the Mineralogic Model (MM). The GFM provides a representation of the 3-D stratigraphy and geologic structure. Based on the framework provided by the GFM, the RPM and MM provide spatial simulations of the rock and hydrologic properties, and mineralogy, respectively. Functional summaries of the component models and their respective output are provided in Section 1.4. Each of the component models of the ISM considers different specific aspects of the site geologic setting. Each model was developed using unique methodologies and inputs, and the determination of the modeled units for each of the components is dependent on the requirements of that component. Therefore, while the ISM represents the integration of the rock properties and mineralogy into a geologic framework, the discussion of ISM construction and results is most appropriately presented in terms of the three separate components. This Process Model Report (PMR) summarizes the individual component models of the ISM (the GFM, RPM, and MM) and describes how the three components are constructed and combined to form the ISM

  5. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  6. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  7. Better models are more effectively connected models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Bielders, Charles; Darboux, Frederic; Fiener, Peter; Finger, David; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Wainwright, John

    2016-04-01

    The concept of hydrologic and geomorphologic connectivity describes the processes and pathways which link sources (e.g. rainfall, snow and ice melt, springs, eroded areas and barren lands) to accumulation areas (e.g. foot slopes, streams, aquifers, reservoirs), and the spatial variations thereof. There are many examples of hydrological and sediment connectivity on a watershed scale; in consequence, a process-based understanding of connectivity is crucial to help managers understand their systems and adopt adequate measures for flood prevention, pollution mitigation and soil protection, among others. Modelling is often used as a tool to understand and predict fluxes within a catchment by complementing observations with model results. Catchment models should therefore be able to reproduce the linkages, and thus the connectivity of water and sediment fluxes within the systems under simulation. In modelling, a high level of spatial and temporal detail is desirable to ensure taking into account a maximum number of components, which then enables connectivity to emerge from the simulated structures and functions. However, computational constraints and, in many cases, lack of data prevent the representation of all relevant processes and spatial/temporal variability in most models. In most cases, therefore, the level of detail selected for modelling is too coarse to represent the system in a way in which connectivity can emerge; a problem which can be circumvented by representing fine-scale structures and processes within coarser scale models using a variety of approaches. This poster focuses on the results of ongoing discussions on modelling connectivity held during several workshops within COST Action Connecteur. It assesses the current state of the art of incorporating the concept of connectivity in hydrological and sediment models, as well as the attitudes of modellers towards this issue. The discussion will focus on the different approaches through which connectivity

  8. Generalized latent variable modeling multilevel, longitudinal, and structural equation models

    CERN Document Server

    Skrondal, Anders; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

    2004-01-01

    This book unifies and extends latent variable models, including multilevel or generalized linear mixed models, longitudinal or panel models, item response or factor models, latent class or finite mixture models, and structural equation models.

  9. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. W. Wu

    2003-07-16

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  10. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  11. Biosphere Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. W. Wu

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  12. AIDS Epidemiological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Fouad Lazhar

    2010-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to present mathematical modelling of the spread of infection in the context of the transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). These models are based in part on the models suggested in the field of th AIDS mathematical modelling as reported by ISHAM [6].

  13. A Model for Conversation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayres, Phil

    2012-01-01

    This essay discusses models. It examines what models are, the roles models perform and suggests various intentions that underlie their construction and use. It discusses how models act as a conversational partner, and how they support various forms of conversation within the conversational activity...

  14. HRM: HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

    2017-07-01

    HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

  15. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  16. The Moody Mask Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Bjarke Alexander; Andkjær, Kasper Ingdahl; Schoenau-Fog, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new relation model, called "The Moody Mask model", for Interactive Digital Storytelling (IDS), based on Franceso Osborne's "Mask Model" from 2011. This, mixed with some elements from Chris Crawford's Personality Models, is a system designed for dynamic interaction between ch...

  17. Efficient polarimetric BRDF model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renhorn, Ingmar G E; Hallberg, Tomas; Boreman, Glenn D

    2015-11-30

    The purpose of the present manuscript is to present a polarimetric bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model suitable for hyperspectral and polarimetric signature modelling. The model is based on a further development of a previously published four-parameter model that has been generalized in order to account for different types of surface structures (generalized Gaussian distribution). A generalization of the Lambertian diffuse model is presented. The pBRDF-functions are normalized using numerical integration. Using directional-hemispherical reflectance (DHR) measurements, three of the four basic parameters can be determined for any wavelength. This simplifies considerably the development of multispectral polarimetric BRDF applications. The scattering parameter has to be determined from at least one BRDF measurement. The model deals with linear polarized radiation; and in similarity with e.g. the facet model depolarization is not included. The model is very general and can inherently model extreme surfaces such as mirrors and Lambertian surfaces. The complex mixture of sources is described by the sum of two basic models, a generalized Gaussian/Fresnel model and a generalized Lambertian model. Although the physics inspired model has some ad hoc features, the predictive power of the model is impressive over a wide range of angles and scattering magnitudes. The model has been applied successfully to painted surfaces, both dull and glossy and also on metallic bead blasted surfaces. The simple and efficient model should be attractive for polarimetric simulations and polarimetric remote sensing.

  18. Validation of HEDR models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid

  19. Composite hadron models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogava, S.; Savada, S.; Nakagava, M.

    1983-01-01

    Composite models of hadrons are considered. The main attention is paid to the Sakata, S model. In the framework of the model it is presupposed that proton, neutron and Λ particle are the fundamental particles. Theoretical studies of unknown fundamental constituents of a substance have led to the creation of the quark model. In the framework of the quark model using the theory of SU(6)-symmetry the classification of mesons and baryons is considered. Using the quark model relations between hadron masses, their spins and electromagnetic properties are explained. The problem of three-colour model with many flavours is briefly presented

  20. Geoscientific investigations on the Indian coast: Their application to interpret the paleoclimates and future sea level changes with special reference to greenhouse effect

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.; Hashimi, N.H.; Pathak, M.C.

    Objectives of this paper are: (1) To delineate the paleo sea level fluctuations and erosional environmental changes along the Indian Coast and their relationship with the changing coastline and human settlements in the recent past. (2) To study...

  1. Recurrence of water bodies in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert - New insights into the Late Pleistocene paleoclimate history of Northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, J. L.; Wennrich, V.; Fernández Galego, E.; Ritter, B.; Brill, D.; Niemann, K.; Rolf, C.; Melles, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Atacama Desert of northern Chile is regarded as the driest desert on Earth. Although still controversially discussed, overall arid to hyperarid conditions in the Atacama are thought to have persisted at least since the early Miocene, but were frequently punctuated by pluvial phases. The knowledge of past changes in humidity is strongly hampered by the fact that sediment records from the central Atacama Desert, which enable longer-scale precipitation reconstructions, are rare and mostly restricted to the Miocene/Pliocene or the late Pleistocene <50 kyrs. In this study, we focus on a sediment record from the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert, derived from a tectonically blocked clay pan in the Coastal Cordillera (20°04'33.64"S, 69°55'01.75"W). This clay pan `Huara' has been initially investigated by a geophysical survey in spring 2015, followed by drilling of a short core (HU-III) covering the uppermost 4 m of sediment. Initial results of the ground penetrating radar (GPR) and horizontal to vertical (H/V) spectral ratio measurements indicate well-stratified sediment bodies in the basin with a maximum sediment infill of 30 ± 4 m. The chronology of core HU-III was established by a combination of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and paleomagnetic dating. The sedimentological and geochemical data of core HU-III as well as it's sediment geophysical properties indicate the primary accumulation of fine-grained sediments over the past ca. 50 kyrs, interpreted to be deposited under arid conditions with only sporadic precipitation. Intercalated coarser horizons indicate several periods of semiarid climate conditions, causing multiple phases of local alluvial deposition from the interior catchment area into the clay pan. The results are in agreement with a cosmogenic nuclide study from an adjacent meander system, indicating that the whole sediment sequence of the Huara clay pan covers the regional climate history of the past 500 - 700 kyrs.

  2. Annual report on paleoclimate studies for the Yucca Mountain project site characterization conducted by the Desert Research Institute for the Department of Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The prospect that Yucca Mountain may become a repository for high-level radionuclides with especially long half-lives means that the intended waste containment area must be well beyond the reach of the hydrologic system for at least ten millennia. Through the integration of several avenues of paleoclimatic proxy data, the authors intend to arrive at definite conclusions regarding rates of change, and extremes and stabilities of past climate regimes. These will in turn lead to rough estimates of: the amounts of rainfall available for recharge during past periods of effectively wetter climate, and the durations and frequencies of recharge periods. The paper gives summaries of the following studies: Late Quaternary and Holocene climate derived from vegetation history and plant cellulose stable isotope records from the Great basin of western North America; Accomplishments of paleofaunal studies, 1993--1994; Geomorphology studies in the Great Basin; Alluvial fan response to climatic change, Buena Vista Valley, central Nevada; Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and chronology of lacustrine deposition in the Fernley Basin, west-central Nevada; Tree-rings, lake chronologies, alluvial sequences and climate--Implications for Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies; Stable isotopic validation studies--Fossil snails; and Late Pleistocene and Holocene eolian activity in the Mojave Desert

  3. The comparison of biogenic silica, Br and Nd distributions in the sediments of Lake Baikal as proxies of changing paleoclimates of the last 480 kyr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phedorin, M.A.; Goldberg, E.L.; Grachev, M.A.; Levina, O.L.; Khlystov, O.M.; Dolbnya, I.P.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a comparison of the profiles of biogenic silica (BiSi), Br and Nd in the first 20 m of the BDP-96-2 core of sediments of Lake Baikal obtained on top of the underwater Akademichesky Ridge. The concentrations of the two elements mentioned were measured by X-ray fluorescent analysis with synchrotron radiation (SR-XFA) at 10 cm intervals. Br correlates positively, and Nd negatively with BiSi. Spectral analysis of the profiles revealed the 100, 41, 23 and 19 kyr major external forcing periods. We studied the elemental composition of extant diatom algae of Lake Baikal in order to find out whether any elements are bound by them specifically. SR-XFA revealed, among others that Br is accumulated by extant diatom algae of Lake Baikal, presumably due to incorporation into their organic matter. Br can be regarded as a new proxy of the paleo-productivity of Lake Baikal. The paper also considers arguments suggesting that the first 2 m of sediment are missing in the BDP-96-2 core

  4. Phylogeography of a widespread sub-Saharan murid rodent Aethomys chrysophilus: the role of geographic barriers and paleoclimate in the Zambezian bioregion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mazoch, Vladimír; Mikula, Ondřej; Bryja, Josef; Konvičková, Hana; Russo, I.-R.; Verheyen, E.; Šumbera, R.

    (2018) ISSN 0025-1461 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP506/10/0983; GA ČR GA15-20229S Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Aethomys chrysophilus * Aethomys ineptus * phylogeography * Plio-Pleistocene climate changes * Zambezian bioregion Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.805, year: 2016

  5. New tool for getting data on the field for paleoclimate and paleoceanography data based on isotope 13C and 18O measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandic, M.; Stöbener, N.; Smajgl, D.

    2017-12-01

    For many decades different instrumental methods involving generations of the isotope ratio mass spectrometers with different periphery units for sample preparation, have provided scientifically required high precision, and high throughput of samples for varies application - from geological and hydrological to food and forensic. With this work we introduce automated measurement of δ13C and δ18O from solid carbonate samples, DIC and δ18O of water. We have demonstrated usage of a Thermo Scientific™ Delta Ray™ IRIS with URI Connect on certified reference materials and confirmed the high achievable accuracy and a precision better then analysis on the Delta Ray IRIS with URI Connect is similar to the previously mentioned Gas Bench II methods. Samples are put into vials and phosphoric acid is added. The resulting sample-acid chemical reaction releases CO2 gas, which is then introduced into the Delta Ray IRIS via the Variable Volume. Three international standards of carbonate materials (NBS-18, NBS-19 and IAEA-CO-1) were analyzed. NBS-18 and NBS-19 were used as standards for calibration, and IAEA-CO-1 was treated as unknown. For water sample analysis equilibration method with 1% of CO2 in dry air was used. Test measurements and conformation of precision and accuracy of method determination δ18O in water samples were done with three lab standards, namely ANST, OCEAN 2 and HBW. All laboratory standards were previously calibrated with international reference material VSMOW2 and SLAP2 to assure accuracy of the isotopic values. The Principle of Identical Treatment was applied in sample and standard preparation, in measurement procedure, as well as in the evaluation of the results.

  6. Geochemical characterization of the Jurassic Amran deposits from Sharab area (SW Yemen): Origin of organic matter, paleoenvironmental and paleoclimate conditions during deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakimi, Mohammed Hail; Abdullah, Wan Hasiah; Makeen, Yousif M.; Saeed, Shadi A.; Al-Hakame, Hitham; Al-Moliki, Tareq; Al-Sharabi, Kholah Qaid; Hatem, Baleid Ali

    2017-05-01

    Calcareous shales and black limestones of the Jurassic Amran Group, located in the Sharab area (SW Yemen), were analysed based on organic and inorganic geochemical methods. The results of this study were used to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic conditions during Jurassic time and their relevance to organic matter enrichment during deposition of the Amran calcareous shale and black limestone deposits. The analysed Amran samples have present-day TOC and Stotal content values in the range of 0.25-0.91 wt % and 0.59-4.96 wt %, respectively. The relationship between Stotal and TOC contents indicates that the Jurassic Amran deposits were deposited in a marine environment as supported by biomarker environmental indicators. Biomarker distributions also reflect that the analysed Amran deposits received high contributions of marine organic matter (e.g., algal and microbial) with minor amount of land plant source inputs. Low oxygen (reducing) conditions during deposition of the Jurassic Amran deposits are indicated from low Pr/Ph values and relatively high elemental ratios of V/Ni and V/(V + Ni). Enrichment in the pyrite grains and very high DOPT and high Fe/Al ratios further suggest reducing bottom waters. This paleo-redox (i.e., reducing) conditions contributed to preservation of organic matter during deposition of the Jurassic Amran deposits. Semi-arid to warm climatic conditions are also evidenced during deposition of the Amran sediments and consequently increased biological productivity within the photic zone of the water column during deposition. Therefore, the increased bio-productivity in combination with good preservation of organic matter identified as the major mechanisms that gave rise to organic matter enrichment. This contradicts with the low organic matter content of the present-day TOC values of less than 1%. The biomarker maturity data indicate that the analysed Amran samples are of high thermal maturity; therefore, the low present-day TOC is attributed to the thermal effect on the original organic matter. This high thermal maturity level is due to the presence of volcanic rocks, which have invaded the Jurassic rocks during Late Oligocene to Early Miocene.

  7. Chain-Length Distribution and Hydrogen Isotopic Fraction of n-alkyl Lipids in Aquatic and Terrestrial Plants: Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, L.; Littlejohn, S.; Hou, J.; Toney, J.; Huang, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Recent studies demonstrate that in lacustrine sediments, aquatic plant lipids (e.g., C22-fatty acid) record lake water D/H ratio variation, while long-chain fatty acids (C26-C32, major components of terrestrial plant leaf waxes), record D/H ratios of precipitation (especially in arid regions). However, there are insufficient literature data for the distribution and hydrogen isotopic fractionation of n-alkyl lipids in aquatic and terrestrial plants. In this study, we determined the chain-length distributions and D/H ratios of n-alkyl lipids from 17 aquatic plant species (9 emergent, 4 floating and 4 submerge species) and 13 terrestrial plant species (7 grasses and 6 trees) from Blood Pond, Massachusetts. Our results are consistent with previous studies and provide a solid basis for the paleoclimatic reconstruction using D/H ratios of aquatic and terrestrial plant biomarkers. In addition, systematic hydrogen isotopic analyses on leaf waxes, leaf, stem and soil waters from trees and grasses significantly advance our understanding of our previously observed large D/H ratio difference between tree and grass leaf waxes. Our data indicate that the observed difference is not due to differences in leaf water D/H ratios. In comparison with grasses, trees use greater proportion of D-enriched residual or stored carbohydrates (as opposed to current photosynthetic carbohydrates) for leaf wax biosynthesis, resulting in higher leaf wax D/H ratios. The residual carbohydrates are enriched in deuterium because of the preferential consumption of light-hydrogen substrates during plant metabolism.

  8. Paleoclimate reconstruction in the Levant region from the petrography and the geochemistry of a MIS 5 stalagmite from the Kanaan Cave, Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nehme, C.; Verheyden, S.; Noble, S. R.; Farrant, A. R.; Delannoy, J. J.; Claeys, P.

    2015-07-01

    Lying at the transition between the temperate Mediterranean domain and subtropical deserts, the Levant is a key area to study the palaeoclimatic response over glacial-interglacial cycles. This paper presents a precisely dated last interglacial (MIS 5) stalagmite (129-84 ka) from the Kanaan Cave, Lebanon. Variations in growth rate and isotopic records indicate a warm humid phase at the onst of the last interglacial at ~129 ka that lasted until ~125 ka. A gradual shift in speleothem isotopic composition (125-122 ka) is driven mainly by the δ18O source effect of the Eastern Mediterranean surface waters during Sapropel S5. The onset of glacial inception began after ~122 ka, interrupted by a short wet pulse during Sapropel S4. Low growth rates and enriched oxygen and carbon values until ~84 ka indicate a transition to drier conditions during Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

  9. Paleoclimate and Asian monsoon variability inferred from n-alkanes and their stable isotopes at lake Donggi Cona, NE Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Jeetendra; Guenther, Franziska; Mäusbacher, Roland; Gleixner, Gerd

    2015-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most extensive and sensitive region of elevated topography affecting global climate. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies greatly influences the lake systems at the Tibetan Plateau. Despite a considerable number of research efforts in last decade, possible environmental reactions to change in monsoon dynamics are still not well understood. Here we present results from a sediment core of lake Donggi Cona, which dates back to late glacial period. Distinct organic geochemical proxies and stable isotopes are used to study the paleoenvironmental and hydrological changes in late glacial and Holocene period. Sedimentary n-alkanes of lake Donggi Cona are used as a proxy for paleoclimatic and monsoonal reconstruction. The hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopes of n-alkanes are used as proxy for hydrological and phytoplankton productivity, respectively . Qualitative and quantitative analysis were performed for n-alkanes over the sediment core. δD proxy for sedimentary n-alkanes is used to infer lake water and rainfall signal. δD of (n-alkane C23) records the signal of the lake water, whereas δD of (n-alkane C29) record the precipitation signal, hence act as an appropriate proxy to track Asian monsoon. Long chain n-alkanes dominate over the sediment core while unsaturated mid chain n-alkenes have high abundance in some samples. From 18.4-13.8 cal ka BP, sample shows low organic productivity due to cold and arid climate. After 13.8-11.8 cal ka BP, slight increase in phytoplankton productivity indicate onset of weaker monsoon. From 11.8-6.8 cal ka BP, high content of organic matter indicates rise in productivity and strong monsoon with high inflow. After 6.8 cal ka BP, decrease in phytoplankton productivity indicating cooler climate and show terrestrial signal. Our results provide new insight into the variability of east Asian monsoon and changes in phytoplankton productivity for last 18.4 ka. Keywords: n-alkanes; n-alkane C23; n-alkane C29; hydrogen isotopes (δD); carbon isotopes (δ13C); east Asian monsoon; precipitation;

  10. Edad de las terrazas y diques travertínicos de las Lagunas de Ruidera y sus implicaciones paleoclimáticas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martínez Frías, J.

    1988-04-01

    Full Text Available Two generations of carbonate sinter deposits of sedimentary origin occur along the shore line of the Ruidera lakes. Both of them were formed during interglaciar type climate conditions. Based on 234 U/238 U and 230 U/234 U activity relationships, two sets of ages were obtained: 10.000 years and 80.000-140.000; tbe former for the lower terraces and sinter dykes, the latter for the upper terraces.En los bordes de las Lagunas de Ruidera, existen dos generaciones fundamentales de depósitos travertínicos. La datación de estos depósitos, mediante relaciones de actividades del 234 U/238 U y 230 Th/234 U permite diferenciar un conjunto de terrazas bajas y diques de edad inferior a 10.000 años, y un conjunto de terrazas altas de edad entre 80.000 y 140.000 años, en las que se distinguen dos episodios principales. Estos periodos de crecimiento de los travertinos, se identifican con condiciones climáticas equivalentes a las de un interglaciar húmedo. Por último, se hace una estimación de la velocidad de encajamiento de las lagunas.

  11. The potential of the coral species Porites astreoides as a paleoclimate archive for the Tropical South Atlantic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira, Natan S.; Sial, Alcides N.; Frei, Robert

    2017-01-01

    , Red Sea and Caribbean, but lack for the Equatorial South Atlantic. Here we present coral-based records of Sr/Ca, δ18O and δ13C and the first δ18O–SST calibration for the scleractinian coral species Porites astreoides from the Rocas Atoll, Equatorial South Atlantic. The investigated geochemical proxies...

  12. Pliocene Paleoenvironments of the Awash Valley, Ethiopia: The Isotope Record of Tooth Enamel and its Relevance to the Pliocene Paleoclimate of Northeastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedaso, Z. K.; Wynn, J. G.; Alemseged, Z.

    2010-12-01

    Understanding patterns of Pliocene environmental and climate change using data from terrestrial deposits helps to identify factors which govern the climate, and to unravel potential links between regional and global climate conditions. We use the stable carbon (C) and oxygen (O) isotopic composition of bioapatite from fossil tooth enamel to reconstruct Pliocene environmental and climatic changes at Dikika and Galili, in the Awash valley of Ethiopia. Our application of C and O isotopes aims principally at reconstructing shifts in floral composition, such as the relative abundance of C4 grasses, and its implications for climate indicators including temperature, aridity, and seasonality, and the role of climate in early hominin evolution. C isotopic composition of tooth enamel is based on differences in C isotope discrimination between plants that use the two major photosynthetic pathways (C3 and C4), the abundance of which are driven by climate variables, and the transfer of this “signature” between plant foods in the diet of mammals and mammalian tooth enamel δ13C values (ɛdiet-enamel). A change in δ13Cenamel values between 5.26 and 3.24 Ma provides insight to early hominin environments, which varied from open woodland and grassland to closed woodland in the early to mid Pliocene at Galili and wooded grassland both in Galili and Dikika in the late Pliocene. Similarly, the O isotopic composition of tooth enamel is a function of the isotopic composition of body water, which in turn is a function of meteoric and physiological processes, and therefore may also reflect local climatic conditions if the physiological factors can be constrained. Using an O isotope enrichment factor between δ18Oenamel carbonate and δ18Obody water (ɛEC-BW =26.3) and between evaporation sensitive and insensitive taxa (ɛES-EI = 2.1-4.2), we estimate the Pliocene δ18O value of meteoric water, which ranges from -2.4 to -5.2 ‰ in early and mid Pliocene respectively. An observed change in an estimate of water deficit during the Pliocene of this region may in part be attributed to a regional change in moisture source or to mid Pliocene regional climate change.

  13. Constraining Seasonal and Vertical Distributions of Planktonic Foraminifera for Paleoclimate Reconstruction Since MIS3 at the Axial Seamount, Juan de Fuca Ridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. L.; Ravelo, A. C.; Clague, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    The California Current is an upwelling region with dynamic interactions between circulation, biological productivity and ecology. A 77 cm piston push core was taken from the Juan de Fuca Ridge Axial Seamount using a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) (2213m, 45.55º N, 130.08º W), an active submarine volcano ~480 km off Oregon's coast. Five radiocarbon dates indicate that the sediment ranges from 42.6 ka at 77 cm to 17.6 ka at 15 cm, with an average sediment accumulation rate of 2.47 cm/ka from 77-15 cm, and an average rate of 0.85 cm/ka during the postglacial period (the core representing subtropical, subartic, and arctic fauna have been used to constrain changes in vertical and seasonal temperature since Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Measurements of δ18O of the upwelling species Globigerina bulloides, the thermocline dwelling species Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, and the warm mixed-layer species Orbulina universa are offset from each other, reflecting vertical and seasonal variation among the planktonic foraminifera. Of the three species, G. bulloides shows the least variation in δ18O, possibly indicating that marked changes in temperature are masking changes in the δ18O of seawater due to global ice volume changes. G. bulloides and O. universa δ18O values are similar in MIS 3 and diverge with time, indicating the development of strong seasonal succession of species, since the last glacial maximum. Bulk nitrogen isotopes and nitrogen flux provide additional constraints on upwelling strength and insight into local biological productivity and nutrient dynamics. Obtaining Mg/Ca data will clarify the δ 18O interpretation except deep in the core where metal-bearing authigenic precipitates affect Mg concentrations. These climatic proxies together provide insight into how global climate change and local seamount volcanism impacts regional productivity in the California Current.

  14. Modeller af komplicerede systemer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, J.

    emphasizes their use in relation to technical systems. All the presented models, with the exception of the types presented in chapter 2, are non-theoretical non-formal conceptual network models. Two new model types are presented: 1) The System-Environment model, which describes the environments interaction...... with conceptual modeling in relation to process control. It´s purpose is to present classify and exemplify the use of a set of qualitative model types. Such model types are useful in the early phase of modeling, where no structured methods are at hand. Although the models are general in character, this thesis......This thesis, "Modeller af komplicerede systemer", represents part of the requirements for the Danish Ph.D.degree. Assisting professor John Nørgaard-Nielsen, M.Sc.E.E.Ph.D. has been principal supervisor and professor Morten Lind, M.Sc.E.E.Ph.D. has been assisting supervisor. The thesis is concerned...

  15. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  16. The Hospitable Meal Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Lise; Overgaard, Svend Skafte

    2017-01-01

    This article presents an analytical model that aims to conceptualize how meal experiences are framed when taking into account a dynamic understanding of hospitality: the meal model is named The Hospitable Meal Model. The idea behind The Hospitable Meal Model is to present a conceptual model...... that can serve as a frame for developing hospitable meal competencies among professionals working within the area of institutional foodservices as well as a conceptual model for analysing meal experiences. The Hospitable Meal Model transcends and transforms existing meal models by presenting a more open......-ended approach towards meal experiences. The underlying purpose of The Hospitable Meal Model is to provide the basis for creating value for the individuals involved in institutional meal services. The Hospitable Meal Model was developed on the basis of an empirical study on hospital meal experiences explored...

  17. Applied stochastic modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P

    2008-01-01

    Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...

  18. Calibrated Properties Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, C.F.; Liu, H.H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00 (CRWMS M and O 1999c). These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

  19. Calibrated Properties Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, C.; Liu, H.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the ''AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00. These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

  20. Business Models and Business Model Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai J.; Saebi, Tina

    2018-01-01

    While research on business models and business model innovation continue to exhibit growth, the field is still, even after more than two decades of research, characterized by a striking lack of cumulative theorizing and an opportunistic borrowing of more or less related ideas from neighbouring...

  1. Wake modelling combining mesoscale and microscale models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Volker, Patrick; Prospathospoulos, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the basis for introducing thrust information from microscale wake models into mesocale model wake parameterizations will be described. A classification system for the different types of mesoscale wake parameterizations is suggested and outlined. Four different mesoscale wake paramet...

  2. Introduction to Adjoint Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    In this lecture, some fundamentals of adjoint models will be described. This includes a basic derivation of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models from a parent nonlinear model, the interpretation of adjoint-derived sensitivity fields, a description of methods of automatic differentiation, and the use of adjoint models to solve various optimization problems, including singular vectors. Concluding remarks will attempt to correct common misconceptions about adjoint models and their utilization.

  3. Business Model Visualization

    OpenAIRE

    Zagorsek, Branislav

    2013-01-01

    Business model describes the company’s most important activities, proposed value, and the compensation for the value. Business model visualization enables to simply and systematically capture and describe the most important components of the business model while the standardization of the concept allows the comparison between companies. There are several possibilities how to visualize the model. The aim of this paper is to describe the options for business model visualization and business mod...

  4. Latent classification models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2005-01-01

    parametric family ofdistributions.  In this paper we propose a new set of models forclassification in continuous domains, termed latent classificationmodels. The latent classification model can roughly be seen ascombining the \\NB model with a mixture of factor analyzers,thereby relaxing the assumptions...... classification model, and wedemonstrate empirically that the accuracy of the proposed model issignificantly higher than the accuracy of other probabilisticclassifiers....

  5. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrabi, K.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  6. Pavement Aging Model by Response Surface Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manzano-Ramírez A.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work, surface course aging was modeled by Response Surface Methodology (RSM. The Marshall specimens were placed in a conventional oven for time and temperature conditions established on the basis of the environment factors of the region where the surface course is constructed by AC-20 from the Ing. Antonio M. Amor refinery. Volatilized material (VM, load resistance increment (ΔL and flow resistance increment (ΔF models were developed by the RSM. Cylindrical specimens with real aging were extracted from the surface course pilot to evaluate the error of the models. The VM model was adequate, in contrast (ΔL and (ΔF models were almost adequate with an error of 20 %, that was associated with the other environmental factors, which were not considered at the beginning of the research.

  7. Modelling of an homogeneous equilibrium mixture model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard-Champmartin, A.; Poujade, O.; Mathiaud, J.; Mathiaud, J.; Ghidaglia, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    We present here a model for two phase flows which is simpler than the 6-equations models (with two densities, two velocities, two temperatures) but more accurate than the standard mixture models with 4 equations (with two densities, one velocity and one temperature). We are interested in the case when the two-phases have been interacting long enough for the drag force to be small but still not negligible. The so-called Homogeneous Equilibrium Mixture Model (HEM) that we present is dealing with both mixture and relative quantities, allowing in particular to follow both a mixture velocity and a relative velocity. This relative velocity is not tracked by a conservation law but by a closure law (drift relation), whose expression is related to the drag force terms of the two-phase flow. After the derivation of the model, a stability analysis and numerical experiments are presented. (authors)

  8. Cloninger's psychobiological model of personality and psychological distress in fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Fontanals, Alba; García-Blanco, Susanna; Portell, Mariona; Pujol, Jesús; Poca-Dias, Violant; García-Fructuoso, Ferran; López-Ruiz, Marina; Gutiérrez-Rosado, Teresa; Gomà-I-Freixanet, Montserrat; Deus, Joan

    2016-09-01

    Personality can play an important role in the clinical symptoms of fibromyalgia (FM). The aim of this study is to identify personality profiles in FM patients and the possible presence of personality disorder (PD) from the Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised (TCI-R), and to assess whether personality dimensions are related to psychological distress in FM. The sample consisted of 42 patients with FM and 38 healthy controls. The TCI-R, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Short-Form-36 Health Survey, Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire and McGill Pain Questionnaire were administered. The personality profile of the FM group based on the TCI-R is defined by high Harm Avoidance (HA), low Novelty Seeking (NS), and low Self-Directedness (SD). Only one-third of patients with FM present a possible psychometric PD, principally from Cluster C. In the FM group, HA and SD are associated positively and negatively, respectively, with indicators of emotional distress. Patients with higher HA present higher perceived pain intensity rated via a verbal-numerical scale while Determination (SD2) reduced the perceived level of pain induced by the stimulus. NS is negatively related to the number of work absences caused by FM. The study suggests that HA and SD play an important role in psychological distress in FM. The fact that SD is prone to modification and has a regulatory effect on emotional impulses is a key aspect to consider from the psychotherapeutic point of view. © 2014 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  9. Model Validation Status Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-01-01

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M and O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  10. Modeling for Battery Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Goebel, Kai; Khasin, Michael; Hogge, Edward; Quach, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    For any battery-powered vehicles (be it unmanned aerial vehicles, small passenger aircraft, or assets in exoplanetary operations) to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability