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Sample records for maximum tsunami elevations

  1. Maximum run-up behavior of tsunamis under non-zero initial velocity condition

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    Baran AYDIN

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The tsunami run-up problem is solved non-linearly under the most general initial conditions, that is, for realistic initial waveforms such as N-waves, as well as standard initial waveforms such as solitary waves, in the presence of initial velocity. An initial-boundary value problem governed by the non-linear shallow-water wave equations is solved analytically utilizing the classical separation of variables technique, which proved to be not only fast but also accurate analytical approach for this type of problems. The results provide important information on maximum tsunami run-up qualitatively. We observed that, although the calculated maximum run-ups increase significantly, going as high as double that of the zero-velocity case, initial waves having non-zero fluid velocity exhibit the same run-up behavior as waves without initial velocity, for all wave types considered in this study.

  2. Tsunamis

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    ... busy after a disaster. Use text messages or social media to communicate with family and friends. Shareables Tsunami ... Power Plants Pandemic Power Outages Radiological Dispersion Device Severe ...

  3. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

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    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  4. An evaluation of onshore digital elevation models for tsunami inundation modelling

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    Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Kongko, W.; Harig, S.; Horspool, N.; Hanung, R.; Rojali, A.; Maher, N.; Fountain, L.; Fuchs, A.; Hossen, J.; Upi, S.; Dewanto, S. E.; Cummins, P. R.

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami inundation models provide fundamental information about coastal areas that may be inundated in the event of a tsunami along with additional parameters such as flow depth and velocity. This can inform disaster management activities including evacuation planning, impact and risk assessment and coastal engineering. A fundamental input to tsunami inundation models is adigital elevation model (DEM). Onshore DEMs vary widely in resolution, accuracy, availability and cost. A proper assessment of how the accuracy and resolution of DEMs translates into uncertainties in modelled inundation is needed to ensure results are appropriately interpreted and used. This assessment can in turn informdata acquisition strategies depending on the purpose of the inundation model. For example, lower accuracy elevation data may give inundation results that are sufficiently accurate to plan a community's evacuation route but not sufficient to inform engineering of a vertical evacuation shelters. A sensitivity study is undertaken to assess the utility of different available onshore digital elevation models for tsunami inundation modelling. We compare airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IFSAR), ASTER and SRTM against high resolution (historical tsunami run-up data. Large vertical errors (> 10 m) and poor resolution of the coastline in the ASTER and SRTM elevation models cause modelled inundation to be much less compared with models using better data and with observations. Therefore we recommend that ASTER and SRTM should not be used for modelling tsunami inundation in order to determine tsunami extent or any other measure of onshore tsunami hazard. We suggest that for certain disaster management applications where the important factor is the extent of inundation, such as evacuation planning, airborne IFSAR provides a good compromise between cost and accuracy; however the representation of flow parameters such as depth and velocity is not sufficient to inform detailed

  5. Tsunamis

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    ... created by an underwater disturbance. Causes include earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, or meteorites--chunks of rock from space that strike the surface of Earth. A tsunami can move hundreds of miles per ...

  6. Soil nematodes show a mid-elevation diversity maximum and elevational zonation on Mt. Norikura, Japan.

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    Dong, Ke; Moroenyane, Itumeleng; Tripathi, Binu; Kerfahi, Dorsaf; Takahashi, Koichi; Yamamoto, Naomichi; An, Choa; Cho, Hyunjun; Adams, Jonathan

    2017-06-08

    Little is known about how nematode ecology differs across elevational gradients. We investigated the soil nematode community along a ~2,200 m elevational range on Mt. Norikura, Japan, by sequencing the 18S rRNA gene. As with many other groups of organisms, nematode diversity showed a high correlation with elevation, and a maximum in mid-elevations. While elevation itself, in the context of the mid domain effect, could predict the observed unimodal pattern of soil nematode communities along the elevational gradient, mean annual temperature and soil total nitrogen concentration were the best predictors of diversity. We also found nematode community composition showed strong elevational zonation, indicating that a high degree of ecological specialization that may exist in nematodes in relation to elevation-related environmental gradients and certain nematode OTUs had ranges extending across all elevations, and these generalized OTUs made up a greater proportion of the community at high elevations - such that high elevation nematode OTUs had broader elevational ranges on average, providing an example consistent to Rapoport's elevational hypothesis. This study reveals the potential for using sequencing methods to investigate elevational gradients of small soil organisms, providing a method for rapid investigation of patterns without specialized knowledge in taxonomic identification.

  7. Are inundation limit and maximum extent of sand useful for differentiating tsunamis and storms? An example from sediment transport simulations on the Sendai Plain, Japan

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    Watanabe, Masashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2018-02-01

    We examined the quantitative difference in the distribution of tsunami and storm deposits based on numerical simulations of inundation and sediment transport due to tsunami and storm events on the Sendai Plain, Japan. The calculated distance from the shoreline inundated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami was smaller than that inundated by storm surges from hypothetical typhoon events. Previous studies have assumed that deposits observed farther inland than the possible inundation limit of storm waves and storm surge were tsunami deposits. However, confirming only the extent of inundation is insufficient to distinguish tsunami and storm deposits, because the inundation limit of storm surges may be farther inland than that of tsunamis in the case of gently sloping coastal topography such as on the Sendai Plain. In other locations, where coastal topography is steep, the maximum inland inundation extent of storm surges may be only several hundred meters, so marine-sourced deposits that are distributed several km inland can be identified as tsunami deposits by default. Over both gentle and steep slopes, another difference between tsunami and storm deposits is the total volume deposited, as flow speed over land during a tsunami is faster than during a storm surge. Therefore, the total deposit volume could also be a useful proxy to differentiate tsunami and storm deposits.

  8. Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation

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    Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro

    2018-03-01

    This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

  9. Coastal Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for tsunami hazard assessment on the French coasts

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    Maspataud, Aurélie; Biscara, Laurie; Hébert, Hélène; Schmitt, Thierry; Créach, Ronan

    2015-04-01

    Building precise and up-to-date coastal DEMs is a prerequisite for accurate modeling and forecasting of hydrodynamic processes at local scale. Marine flooding, originating from tsunamis, storm surges or waves, is one of them. Some high resolution DEMs are being generated for multiple coast configurations (gulf, embayment, strait, estuary, harbor approaches, low-lying areas…) along French Atlantic and Channel coasts. This work is undertaken within the framework of the TANDEM project (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling) (2014-2017). DEMs boundaries were defined considering the vicinity of French civil nuclear facilities, site effects considerations and potential tsunamigenic sources. Those were identified from available historical observations. Seamless integrated topographic and bathymetric coastal DEMs will be used by institutions taking part in the study to simulate expected wave height at regional and local scale on the French coasts, for a set of defined scenarii. The main tasks were (1) the development of a new capacity of production of DEM, (2) aiming at the release of high resolution and precision digital field models referred to vertical reference frameworks, that require (3) horizontal and vertical datum conversions (all source elevation data need to be transformed to a common datum), on the basis of (4) the building of (national and/or local) conversion grids of datum relationships based on known measurements. Challenges in coastal DEMs development deal with good practices throughout model development that can help minimizing uncertainties. This is particularly true as scattered elevation data with variable density, from multiple sources (national hydrographic services, state and local government agencies, research organizations and private engineering companies) and from many different types (paper fieldsheets to be digitized, single beam echo sounder, multibeam sonar, airborne laser

  10. TSUNAMI HAZARD IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Theilen-Willige

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

  11. A tsunami wave propagation analysis for the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plant considering the tsunami sources of western part of Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhee, Hyun Me; Kim, Min Kyu; Sheen, Dong Hoon; Choi, In Kil

    2013-01-01

    The accident which was caused by a tsunami and the Great East-Japan earthquake in 2011 occurred at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site. It is obvious that the NPP accident could be incurred by the tsunami. Therefore a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) for an NPP site should be required in Korea. The PTHA methodology is developed on the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) method which is performed by using various tsunami sources and their weights. In this study, the fault sources of northwestern part of Japan were used to analyze as the tsunami sources. These fault sources were suggested by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ). To perform the PTHA, the calculations of maximum and minimum wave elevations from the result of tsunami simulations are required. Thus, in this study, tsunami wave propagation analysis were performed for developing the future study of the PTHA

  12. Significant Tsunami Events

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    Dunbar, P. K.; Furtney, M.; McLean, S. J.; Sweeney, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis have inflicted death and destruction on the coastlines of the world throughout history. The occurrence of tsunamis and the resulting effects have been collected and studied as far back as the second millennium B.C. The knowledge gained from cataloging and examining these events has led to significant changes in our understanding of tsunamis, tsunami sources, and methods to mitigate the effects of tsunamis. The most significant, not surprisingly, are often the most devastating, such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami. The goal of this poster is to give a brief overview of the occurrence of tsunamis and then focus specifically on several significant tsunamis. There are various criteria to determine the most significant tsunamis: the number of deaths, amount of damage, maximum runup height, had a major impact on tsunami science or policy, etc. As a result, descriptions will include some of the most costly (2011 Tohoku, Japan), the most deadly (2004 Sumatra, 1883 Krakatau), and the highest runup ever observed (1958 Lituya Bay, Alaska). The discovery of the Cascadia subduction zone as the source of the 1700 Japanese "Orphan" tsunami and a future tsunami threat to the U.S. northwest coast, contributed to the decision to form the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 marked the beginning of the modern era of seismology. Knowledge gained from the 1964 Alaska earthquake and tsunami helped confirm the theory of plate tectonics. The 1946 Alaska, 1952 Kuril Islands, 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and the 2004 Banda Aceh, tsunamis all resulted in warning centers or systems being established.The data descriptions on this poster were extracted from NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) global historical tsunami database. Additional information about these tsunamis, as well as water level data can be found by accessing the NGDC website www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/

  13. Liquid films on shake flask walls explain increasing maximum oxygen transfer capacities with elevating viscosity.

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    Giese, Heiner; Azizan, Amizon; Kümmel, Anne; Liao, Anping; Peter, Cyril P; Fonseca, João A; Hermann, Robert; Duarte, Tiago M; Büchs, Jochen

    2014-02-01

    In biotechnological screening and production, oxygen supply is a crucial parameter. Even though oxygen transfer is well documented for viscous cultivations in stirred tanks, little is known about the gas/liquid oxygen transfer in shake flask cultures that become increasingly viscous during cultivation. Especially the oxygen transfer into the liquid film, adhering on the shake flask wall, has not yet been described for such cultivations. In this study, the oxygen transfer of chemical and microbial model experiments was measured and the suitability of the widely applied film theory of Higbie was studied. With numerical simulations of Fick's law of diffusion, it was demonstrated that Higbie's film theory does not apply for cultivations which occur at viscosities up to 10 mPa s. For the first time, it was experimentally shown that the maximum oxygen transfer capacity OTRmax increases in shake flasks when viscosity is increased from 1 to 10 mPa s, leading to an improved oxygen supply for microorganisms. Additionally, the OTRmax does not significantly undermatch the OTRmax at waterlike viscosities, even at elevated viscosities of up to 80 mPa s. In this range, a shake flask is a somehow self-regulating system with respect to oxygen supply. This is in contrary to stirred tanks, where the oxygen supply is steadily reduced to only 5% at 80 mPa s. Since, the liquid film formation at shake flask walls inherently promotes the oxygen supply at moderate and at elevated viscosities, these results have significant implications for scale-up. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Tsunami deposits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidelines on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guideline of tsunami deposits survey and evaluation and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, (2) field survey on tsunami deposit, and (3) designing the analysis code of sediment transport due to tsunami. As to (1), we organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. As to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. In addition, as to (3), we design the experimental instrument for hydraulic experiment on sediment transport and sedimentation due to tsunamis. These results are reflected in the guideline on the tsunami deposits survey and evaluation. (author)

  15. Tsunami deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidelines on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guideline of tsunami deposits survey and evaluation and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, (2) field survey on tsunami deposit, and (3) designing the analysis code of sediment transport due to tsunami. As to (1), we organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. As to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. In addition, as to (3), we design the experimental instrument for hydraulic experiment on sediment transport and sedimentation due to tsunamis. These results are reflected in the guideline on the tsunami deposits survey and evaluation. (author)

  16. Tsunami hazard in the Caribbean: Regional exposure derived from credible worst case scenarios

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    Harbitz, C. B.; Glimsdal, S.; Bazin, S.; Zamora, N.; Løvholt, F.; Bungum, H.; Smebye, H.; Gauer, P.; Kjekstad, O.

    2012-04-01

    The present study documents a high tsunami hazard in the Caribbean region, with several thousands of lives lost in tsunamis and associated earthquakes since the XIXth century. Since then, the coastal population of the Caribbean and the Central West Atlantic region has grown significantly and is still growing. Understanding this hazard is therefore essential for the development of efficient mitigation measures. To this end, we report a regional tsunami exposure assessment based on potential and credible seismic and non-seismic tsunamigenic sources. Regional tsunami databases have been compiled and reviewed, and on this basis five main scenarios have been selected to estimate the exposure. The scenarios comprise two Mw8 earthquake tsunamis (north of Hispaniola and east of Lesser Antilles), two subaerial/submarine volcano flank collapse tsunamis (Montserrat and Saint Lucia), and one tsunami resulting from a landslide on the flanks of the Kick'em Jenny submarine volcano (north of Grenada). Offshore tsunami water surface elevations as well as maximum water level distributions along the shore lines are computed and discussed for each of the scenarios. The number of exposed people has been estimated in each case, together with a summary of the tsunami exposure for the earthquake and the landslide tsunami scenarios. For the earthquake scenarios, the highest tsunami exposure relative to the population is found for Guadeloupe (6.5%) and Antigua (7.5%), while Saint Lucia (4.5%) and Antigua (5%) have been found to have the highest tsunami exposure relative to the population for the landslide scenarios. Such high exposure levels clearly warrant more attention on dedicated mitigation measures in the Caribbean region.

  17. 2004 Sumatra Tsunami

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    Vongvisessomjai, S.

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available A catastrophic tsunami on December 26, 2004 caused devastation in the coastal region of six southern provinces of Thailand on the Andaman Sea coast. This paper summaries the characteristics of tsunami with the aim of informing and warning the public and reducing future casualties and damage.The first part is a review of the records of past catastrophic tsunamis, namely those in Chile in 1960, Alaska in 1964, and Flores, Java, Indonesia, in 1992, and the lessons drawn from these tsunamis. An analysis and the impact of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami is then presented and remedial measures recommended.Results of this study are as follows:Firstly, the 2004 Sumatra tsunami ranked fourth in terms of earthquake magnitude (9.0 M after those in 1960 in Chile (9.5 M, 1899 in Alaska (9.2 M and 1964 in Alaska (9.1 M and ranked first in terms of damage and casualties. It was most destructive when breaking in shallow water nearshore.Secondly, the best alleviation measures are 1 to set up a reliable system for providing warning at the time of an earthquake in order to save lives and reduce damage and 2 to establish a hazard map and implement land-use zoning in the devastated areas, according to the following principles:- Large hotels located at an elevation of not less than 10 m above mean sea level (MSL- Medium hotels located at an elevation of not less than 6 m above MSL- Small hotel located at elevation below 6 m MSL, but with the first floor elevated on poles to allow passage of a tsunami wave- Set-back distances from shoreline established for various developments- Provision of shelters and evacuation directionsFinally, public education is an essential part of preparedness.

  18. Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

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    Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

  19. Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami-tide simulations

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    Shelby, Michael; Grilli, Stéphan T.; Grilli, Annette R.

    2016-12-01

    This work is part of a tsunami inundation mapping activity carried out along the US East Coast since 2010, under the auspice of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program (NTHMP). The US East Coast features two main estuaries with significant tidal forcing, which are bordered by numerous critical facilities (power plants, major harbors,...) as well as densely built low-level areas: Chesapeake Bay and the Hudson River Estuary (HRE). HRE is the object of this work, with specific focus on assessing tsunami hazard in Manhattan, the Hudson and East River areas. In the NTHMP work, inundation maps are computed as envelopes of maximum surface elevation along the coast and inland, by simulating the impact of selected probable maximum tsunamis (PMT) in the Atlantic ocean margin and basin. At present, such simulations assume a static reference level near shore equal to the local mean high water (MHW) level. Here, instead we simulate maximum inundation in the HRE resulting from dynamic interactions between the incident PMTs and a tide, which is calibrated to achieve MHW at its maximum level. To identify conditions leading to maximum tsunami inundation, each PMT is simulated for four different phases of the tide and results are compared to those obtained for a static reference level. We first separately simulate the tide and the three PMTs that were found to be most significant for the HRE. These are caused by: (1) a flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (CVV) in the Canary Islands (with a 80 km3 volume representing the most likely extreme scenario); (2) an M9 coseismic source in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT); and (3) a large submarine mass failure (SMF) in the Hudson River canyon of parameters similar to the 165 km3 historical Currituck slide, which is used as a local proxy for the maximum possible SMF. Simulations are performed with the nonlinear and dispersive long wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, in a series of nested grids of increasing resolution towards the coast, by one

  20. Numerical Study on the 1682 Tainan Historic Tsunami Event

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    Tsai, Y.; Wu, T.; Lee, C.; KO, L.; Chuang, M.

    2013-12-01

    We intend to reconstruct the tsunami source of the 1682/1782 tsunami event in Tainan, Taiwan, based on the numerical method. According to Soloviev and Go (1974), a strong earthquake shook the Tainan and caused severe damage, followed by tsunami waves. Almost the whole island was flooded by tsunami for over 120 km. More than 40,000 inhabitants were killed. Forts Zealand and Pigchingi were washed away. 1682/1782 event was the highest death toll in the Pacific Ocean regarded by Bryant (2001). However, the year is ambiguous in 1682 or 1782, and death toll is doubtful. We tend to believe that this event was happened in 1682 based on the evolution of the harbor name. If the 1682 tsunami event does exist, the hazard mitigation plan has to be modified, and restoring the 1682 event becomes important. In this study, we adopted the tsunami reverse tracking method (TRTM) to examine the possible tsunami sources. A series of numerical simulations were carried out by using COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model), and nested grid with 30 m resolution was applied to the study area. According to the result of TRTM, the 1682 tsunami is most likely sourcing from the north segment of Manila Trench. From scenario study, we concluded that the 1682 event was triggered by an Mw >= 8.8 earthquake in north segment of Manila Trench, and 4 m wave height was observed in Tainan and its inundation range is agreeable with historical records. If this scenario occurred again, sever damage and death toll will be seen many high population cities, such as Tainan city, Kaohsiung city and Kenting, where No. 3 nuclear power plant is located. Detailed results will be presented in the full paper. Figure 1. Map of Tsunami Reverse Tracking Method (TRTM) in Tainan. Black arrow indicates direction of possible tsunami direction. The color bar denotes the magnitude of the maximum moment flux. Figure 2. Scenario result of Mw 8.8 in northern segment of Manila Trench. (Left: Initial free surface elevation

  1. Tsunami risk mapping simulation for Malaysia

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    Teh, S.Y.; Koh, H. L.; Moh, Y.T.; De Angelis, D. L.; Jiang, J.

    2011-01-01

    The 26 December 2004 Andaman mega tsunami killed about a quarter of a million people worldwide. Since then several significant tsunamis have recurred in this region, including the most recent 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami. These tsunamis grimly remind us of the devastating destruction that a tsunami might inflict on the affected coastal communities. There is evidence that tsunamis of similar or higher magnitudes might occur again in the near future in this region. Of particular concern to Malaysia are tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring along the northern part of the Sunda Trench. Further, the Manila Trench in the South China Sea has been identified as another source of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes that might trigger large tsunamis. To protect coastal communities that might be affected by future tsunamis, an effective early warning system must be properly installed and maintained to provide adequate time for residents to be evacuated from risk zones. Affected communities must be prepared and educated in advance regarding tsunami risk zones, evacuation routes as well as an effective evacuation procedure that must be taken during a tsunami occurrence. For these purposes, tsunami risk zones must be identified and classified according to the levels of risk simulated. This paper presents an analysis of tsunami simulations for the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea for the purpose of developing a tsunami risk zone classification map for Malaysia based upon simulated maximum wave heights. ?? 2011 WIT Press.

  2. Computed estimates of maximum temperature elevations in fetal tissues during transabdominal pulsed Doppler examinations.

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    Bly, S H; Vlahovich, S; Mabee, P R; Hussey, R G

    1992-01-01

    Measured characteristics of ultrasonic fields were obtained in submissions from manufacturers of diagnostic ultrasound equipment for devices operating in pulsed Doppler mode. Simple formulae were used with these data to generate upper limits to fetal temperature elevations, delta Tlim, during a transabdominal pulsed Doppler examination. A total of 236 items were analyzed, each item being a console/transducer/operating-mode/intended-use combination, for which the spatial-peak temporal-average intensity, ISPTA, was greater than 500 mW cm-2. The largest calculated delta Tlim values were approximately 1.5, 7.1 and 8.7 degrees C for first-, second- and third-trimester examinations, respectively. The vast majority of items yielded delta Tlim values which were less than 1 degree C in the first trimester. For second- and third-trimester examinations, where heating of fetal bone determines delta Tlim, most delta Tlim values were less than 4 degrees C. The clinical significance of the results is discussed.

  3. Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Height

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    Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Mungov, G.; Sweeney, A.; Arcos, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 Mw earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

  4. Tsunami Hockey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.

    2013-12-01

    An important issue that vexes tsunami warning centers (TWCs) is when to cancel a tsunami warning once it is in effect. Emergency managers often face a variety of pressures to allow the public to resume their normal activities, but allowing coastal populations to return too quickly can put them at risk. A TWC must, therefore, exercise caution when cancelling a warning. Kim and Whitmore (2013) show that in many cases a TWC can use the decay of tsunami oscillations in a harbor to forecast when its amplitudes will fall to safe levels. This technique should prove reasonably robust for local tsunamis (those that are potentially dangerous within only 100 km of their source region) and for regional tsunamis (whose danger is limited to within 1000km of the source region) as well. For ocean-crossing destructive tsunamis such as the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami, however, this technique may be inadequate. When a tsunami propagates across the ocean basin, it will encounter topographic obstacles such as seamount chains or coastlines, resulting in coherent reflections that can propagate great distances. When these reflections reach previously-impacted coastlines, they can recharge decaying tsunami oscillations and make them hazardous again. Warning center scientists should forecast sea-level records for 24 hours beyond the initial tsunami arrival in order to observe any potential reflections that may pose a hazard. Animations are a convenient way to visualize reflections and gain a broad geographic overview of their impacts. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has developed tools based on tsunami simulations using the RIFT tsunami forecast model. RIFT is a linear, parallelized numerical tsunami propagation model that runs very efficiently on a multi-CPU system (Wang et al, 2012). It can simulate 30-hours of tsunami wave propagation in the Pacific Ocean at 4 arc minute resolution in approximately 6 minutes of real time on a 12-CPU system. Constructing a 30-hour animation using 1

  5. Tsunami hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  6. Tsunami hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  7. An Evaluation of Infrastructure for Tsunami Evacuation in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cedillos, V.; Canney, N.; Deierlein, G.; Diposaptono, S.; Geist, E. L.; Henderson, S.; Ismail, F.; Jachowski, N.; McAdoo, B. G.; Muhari, A.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Sieh, K. E.; Toth, J.; Tucker, B. E.; Wood, K.

    2009-12-01

    Padang has one of the world’s highest tsunami risks due to its high hazard, vulnerable terrain and population density. The current strategy to prepare for tsunamis in Padang is focused on developing early warning systems, planning evacuation routes, conducting evacuation drills, and raising local awareness. Although these are all necessary, they are insufficient. Padang’s proximity to the Sunda Trench and flat terrain make reaching safe ground impossible for much of the population. The natural warning in Padang - a strong earthquake that lasts over a minute - will be the first indicator of a potential tsunami. People will have about 30 minutes after the earthquake to reach safe ground. It is estimated that roughly 50,000 people in Padang will be unable to evacuate in that time. Given these conditions, other means to prepare for the expected tsunami must be developed. With this motivation, GeoHazards International and Stanford University’s Chapter of Engineers for a Sustainable World partnered with Indonesian organizations - Andalas University and Tsunami Alert Community in Padang, Laboratory for Earth Hazards, and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries - in an effort to evaluate the need for and feasibility of tsunami evacuation infrastructure in Padang. Tsunami evacuation infrastructure can include earthquake-resistant bridges and evacuation structures that rise above the maximum tsunami water level, and can withstand the expected earthquake and tsunami forces. The choices for evacuation structures vary widely - new and existing buildings, evacuation towers, soil berms, elevated highways and pedestrian overpasses. This interdisciplinary project conducted a course at Stanford University, undertook several field investigations, and concluded that: (1) tsunami evacuation structures and bridges are essential to protect the people in Padang, (2) there is a need for a more thorough engineering-based evaluation than conducted to-date of the suitability of

  8. On the characteristics of landslide tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, F; Pedersen, G; Harbitz, C B; Glimsdal, S; Kim, J

    2015-10-28

    This review presents modelling techniques and processes that govern landslide tsunami generation, with emphasis on tsunamis induced by fully submerged landslides. The analysis focuses on a set of representative examples in simplified geometries demonstrating the main kinematic landslide parameters influencing initial tsunami amplitudes and wavelengths. Scaling relations from laboratory experiments for subaerial landslide tsunamis are also briefly reviewed. It is found that the landslide acceleration determines the initial tsunami elevation for translational landslides, while the landslide velocity is more important for impulsive events such as rapid slumps and subaerial landslides. Retrogressive effects stretch the tsunami, and in certain cases produce enlarged amplitudes due to positive interference. In an example involving a deformable landslide, it is found that the landslide deformation has only a weak influence on tsunamigenesis. However, more research is needed to determine how landslide flow processes that involve strong deformation and long run-out determine tsunami generation. © 2015 The Authors.

  9. Time-dependent onshore tsunami response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apotsos, Alex; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2012-01-01

    While bulk measures of the onshore impact of a tsunami, including the maximum run-up elevation and inundation distance, are important for hazard planning, the temporal evolution of the onshore flow dynamics likely controls the extent of the onshore destruction and the erosion and deposition of sediment that occurs. However, the time-varying dynamics of actual tsunamis are even more difficult to measure in situ than the bulk parameters. Here, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations is used to examine the effects variations in the wave characteristics, bed slope, and bottom roughness have on the temporal evolution of the onshore flow. Model results indicate that the onshore flow dynamics vary significantly over the parameter space examined. For example, the flow dynamics over steep, smooth morphologies tend to be temporally symmetric, with similar magnitude velocities generated during the run-up and run-down phases of inundation. Conversely, on shallow, rough onshore topographies the flow dynamics tend to be temporally skewed toward the run-down phase of inundation, with the magnitude of the flow velocities during run-up and run-down being significantly different. Furthermore, for near-breaking tsunami waves inundating over steep topography, the flow velocity tends to accelerate almost instantaneously to a maximum and then decrease monotonically. Conversely, when very long waves inundate over shallow topography, the flow accelerates more slowly and can remain steady for a period of time before beginning to decelerate. These results indicate that a single set of assumptions concerning the onshore flow dynamics cannot be applied to all tsunamis, and site specific analyses may be required.

  10. Tsunamis - General

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tsunami is a Japanese word meaning harbor wave. It is a water wave or a series of waves generated by an impulsive vertical displacement of the surface of the ocean...

  11. Village Level Tsunami Threat Maps for Tamil Nadu, SE Coast of India: Numerical Modeling Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    MP, J.; Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; V, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) devastated several countries of North Indian Ocean. India is one of the worst affected countries after Indonesia and Sri Lanka. In India, Tamil Nadu suffered maximum with fatalities exceeding 8,000 people. Historical records show that tsunami has invaded the shores of Tamil Nadu in the past and has made people realize that the tsunami threat looms over Tamil Nadu and it is necessary to evolve strategies for tsunami threat management. The IOT has brought to light that tsunami inundation and runup varied within short distances and for the disaster management for tsunami, large scale maps showing areas that are likely to be affected by future tsunami are identified. Therefore threat assessment for six villages including Mamallapuram (also called Mahabalipuram) which is famous for its rock-cut temples, from the northern part of Tamil Nadu state of India has been carried out and threat maps categorizing the coast into areas of different degree of threat are prepared. The threat was assessed by numerical modeling using TUNAMI N2 code considering different tsunamigenic sources along the Andaman - Sumatra trench. While GEBCO and C-Map data was used for bathymetry and for land elevation data was generated by RTK - GPS survey for a distance of 1 km from shore and SRTM for the inland areas. The model results show that in addition to the Sumatra source which generated the IOT in 2004, earthquakes originating in Car Nicobar and North Andaman can inflict more damage. The North Andaman source can generate a massive tsunami and an earthquake of magnitude more than Mw 9 can not only affect Tamil Nadu but also entire south east coast of India. The runup water level is used to demarcate the tsunami threat zones in the villages using GIS.

  12. Tsunami in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulikov, Evgueni; Medvedev, Igor; Ivaschenko, Alexey

    2017-04-01

    rate of 10-3 per year. Additional tsunami threat might arise from rare earthquake occurrences within the continental slope of deep-sea basin of the Arctic Ocean and near the coast of the continent, where high probability of triggering submarine landslides exists that can generate even more dangerous tsunamis than those of seismotectonic origin. The most reliable information about the manifestation of the tsunami in the Arctic is associated with submarine landslide Storegga located on the continental slope of the Norwegian Sea and collapsed 8,200 years ago. Traces of sediment left behind by the tsunami waves on the coast, show that the maximum vertical tsunami runup could reach 20 meters. Factors causing the potential tsunami thread of landslides in Russian Arctic are sedimentation processes that can be associated with the formation of the alluvial fans of the great Siberian rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena.

  13. Tsunami simulation of 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake. Evaluation of difference in tsunami wave pressure acting around Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and Fukushima Daini Nuclear Power Station among different tsunami source models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujihara, Satoru; Hashimoto, Norihiko; Korenaga, Mariko; Tamiya, Takahiro

    2016-01-01

    Since the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, evaluations based on a tsunami simulation approach have had a very important role in promoting tsunami disaster prevention measures in the case of mega-thrust earthquakes. When considering tsunami disaster prevention measures based on the knowledge obtained from tsunami simulations, it is important to carefully examine the type of tsunami source model. In current tsunami simulations, there are various ways to set the tsunami source model, and a considerable difference in tsunami behavior can be expected among the tsunami source models. In this study, we carry out a tsunami simulation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake around Fukushima Daiichi (I) Nuclear Power Plant and Fukushima Daini (II) Nuclear Power Plant in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, using several tsunami source models, and evaluate the difference in the tsunami behavior in the tsunami inundation process. The results show that for an incoming tsunami inundating an inland region, there are considerable relative differences in the maximum tsunami height and wave pressure. This suggests that there could be false information used in promoting tsunami disaster prevention measures in the case of mega-thrust earthquakes, depending on the tsunami source model. (author)

  14. The effect analysis of 1741 Oshima-Oshima tsunami in the West Coast of Japan to Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Minkyu; Rhee, Hyunme; Choi, Inkil [Korea Atomic Energy Research institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    It is very difficult to determine and assessment for tsunami hazard. For determining a tsunami risk for NPP site, a development of tsunami hazard is one of the most important. Through the tsunami hazard analysis, a tsunami return period can be determined. For the performing a tsunami hazard analysis, empirical method and numerical method should be needed. Kim et al, already developed tsunami hazard for east coast of Korea for the calculation of tsunami risk of nuclear power plant. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, a development of tsunami catalog should be performed. In the previous research of Kim et al, the maximum wave height was assumed by the author's decision based on historical record in the annals of Chosun dynasty for evaluating the tsunami catalog. Therefore, in this study, a literature survey was performed for a quantitative measure of historical tsunami record transform to qualitative tsunami wave height for the evaluation of tsunami catalog. In this study, the 1741 tsunami was determined by using a literature review for the evaluation of tsunami hazard. The 1741 tsunami reveals a same tsunami between the historical records in Korea and Japan. The tsunami source of 1741 tsunami was not an earthquake and volcanic. Using the numerical analysis, the wave height of 1741 tsunami can be determined qualitatively.

  15. The effect analysis of 1741 Oshima-Oshima tsunami in the West Coast of Japan to Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Minkyu; Rhee, Hyunme; Choi, Inkil

    2013-01-01

    It is very difficult to determine and assessment for tsunami hazard. For determining a tsunami risk for NPP site, a development of tsunami hazard is one of the most important. Through the tsunami hazard analysis, a tsunami return period can be determined. For the performing a tsunami hazard analysis, empirical method and numerical method should be needed. Kim et al, already developed tsunami hazard for east coast of Korea for the calculation of tsunami risk of nuclear power plant. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, a development of tsunami catalog should be performed. In the previous research of Kim et al, the maximum wave height was assumed by the author's decision based on historical record in the annals of Chosun dynasty for evaluating the tsunami catalog. Therefore, in this study, a literature survey was performed for a quantitative measure of historical tsunami record transform to qualitative tsunami wave height for the evaluation of tsunami catalog. In this study, the 1741 tsunami was determined by using a literature review for the evaluation of tsunami hazard. The 1741 tsunami reveals a same tsunami between the historical records in Korea and Japan. The tsunami source of 1741 tsunami was not an earthquake and volcanic. Using the numerical analysis, the wave height of 1741 tsunami can be determined qualitatively

  16. Tsunami Deposits on Simeulue Island, Indonesia--A tale of two tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, B. E.; Higman, B.

    2007-12-01

    As tsunami deposits become more widely used for evaluating tsunami risk, it has become increasingly valuable to improve the ability to interpret deposits to determine tsunami characteristics such as size and flow speed. A team of U.S. and Indonesian scientists went to Simeulue Island 125 km east of Sumatra in April 2005 to learn more about the relation between tsunami deposition and flow. Busong, on the southeast coast of Simeulue Island, was inundated twice in a three-months period by tsunamis. The 26 December 2004 tsunami inundated 130 m inland to an elevation of approximately 4 m. The 28 March 2005 tsunami inundated less than 100 m to an elevation of approximately 2 m. Both tsunamis created deposits that were observed to be an amalgamated 20- cm thick, predominately fine to medium sand overlying a sandy soil. The contact between 2004 and 2005 tsunami deposits is at 13 cm above the top of the sandy soil and is clearly marked by vegetation that grew on the 2004 deposit in the 3 months between tsunamis. Grass roots are present in the upper half of the 2004 deposit and absent both below that level and in the 2005 deposit. We analyzed the fine-scale sedimentary structures and vertical variation in grain size of the deposits to search for diagnostic criteria for unequivocally identifying deposits formed by multiple tsunamis. At Busung, we expected there to be differences between each tsunami's deposits because the tsunami height, period, and direction of the 2004 and 2005 tsunamis were different. Both the 2004 and 2005 deposits were predominately normally graded, although each had inversely graded and massive sections. Faint laminations, which became more defined in a peel of the deposit, were discontinuous and predominately quasi-parallel. Knowing where the contact between the two tsunamis was, subtle sedimentary differences were identified that may be used to tell that it is composed of two separate tsunamis. We will present quantitative analyses of the variations

  17. Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarche, G.; Popinet, S.; Pelletier, B.; Mountjoy, J.; Goff, J.; Delaux, S.; Bind, J.

    2015-08-01

    We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated 15 tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance and expected time of arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2-3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

  18. Tsunami.gov: NOAA's Tsunami Information Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiro, B.; Carrick, J.; Hellman, S. B.; Bernard, M.; Dildine, W. P.

    2014-12-01

    We present the new Tsunami.gov website, which delivers a single authoritative source of tsunami information for the public and emergency management communities. The site efficiently merges information from NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC's) by way of a comprehensive XML feed called Tsunami Event XML (TEX). The resulting unified view allows users to quickly see the latest tsunami alert status in geographic context without having to understand complex TWC areas of responsibility. The new site provides for the creation of a wide range of products beyond the traditional ASCII-based tsunami messages. The publication of modern formats such as Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) can drive geographically aware emergency alert systems like FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). Supported are other popular information delivery systems, including email, text messaging, and social media updates. The Tsunami.gov portal allows NOAA staff to easily edit content and provides the facility for users to customize their viewing experience. In addition to access by the public, emergency managers and government officials may be offered the capability to log into the portal for special access rights to decision-making and administrative resources relevant to their respective tsunami warning systems. The site follows modern HTML5 responsive design practices for optimized use on mobile as well as non-mobile platforms. It meets all federal security and accessibility standards. Moving forward, we hope to expand Tsunami.gov to encompass tsunami-related content currently offered on separate websites, including the NOAA Tsunami Website, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Database, and National Data Buoy Center's DART Program. This project is part of the larger Tsunami Information Technology Modernization Project, which is consolidating the software architectures of NOAA's existing TWC's into

  19. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2018-04-01

    Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  20. Emergency preparedness in the case of Makran tsunami: a case study on tsunami risk visualization for the western parts of Gujarat, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Patel

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The west coast of India is affected by tsunamigenic earthquake along the Makran subduction zone. On 28 November 1945 at 21:56 coordinated universal time (UTC, a massive Makran earthquake (M8.0 generated a destructive tsunami that propagated across the Northern Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. This tsunamigenic earthquake was responsible for the loss of life and great destruction along the coasts of India, Pakistan, Iran and Oman. Modelling of tsunami stages has been made for the coasts of Pakistan, Iran, India and Oman using NAMI-DANCE computer code. The fault parameters of the earthquakes for the generation of tsunami are epicentre (25.15° N, 63.48° E, fault area (200 km length and 100 km width, angle of strike, dip and rake (246°, 7° and 90°, focal depth (15 km, slip magnitude (7 m. The bathymetry data are taken from General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO and land topography data were collected using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM. The present simulation is carried out for a duration of 360 min. It is observed that the maximum calculated tsunami run-ups were about 0.7–1.1 m along the coast of Oman, 0.5 m near Muscat, 0.1 m near Sur, 0.7–1.35 m along the western coast of India, 0.5–2.3 m along the southern coast of Iran and 1.2–5.8 m along the southern coast of Pakistan. After the tsunamigenic earthquake, the tsunami wave reached the Gulf of Kachchh in about 240 min, Okha in about 185 min, Dwarka in about 150 min, Porbandar in about 155 min, Mumbai in about 300 min and Goa in about 210 min. The calculated 2-hr tsunami travel time to the Indian coast is in good agreement with the available reports and published data. If the tsunami strikes during high tide, we should expect more serious hazards which would impact local coastal communities. The results obtained in this study are converted to be compatible with the geographic information system based applications for display and spatial analysis of

  1. Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami

  2. What Causes Tsunamis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael

    2005-01-01

    On December 26, 2004, a disastrous tsunami struck many parts of South Asia. The scope of this disaster has resulted in an outpouring of aid throughout the world and brought attention to the science of tsunamis. "Tsunami" means "harbor wave" in Japanese, and the Japanese have a long history of tsunamis. The word…

  3. Development of Real-time Tsunami Inundation Forecast Using Ocean Bottom Tsunami Networks along the Japan Trench

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Suzuki, W.; Hirata, K.; Nakamura, H.; Kunugi, T.; Kubo, T.; Maeda, T.

    2015-12-01

    In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, in which huge tsunami claimed a great deal of lives, the initial tsunami forecast based on hypocenter information estimated using seismic data on land were greatly underestimated. From this lesson, NIED is now constructing S-net (Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench) which consists of 150 ocean bottom observatories with seismometers and pressure gauges (tsunamimeters) linked by fiber optic cables. To take full advantage of S-net, we develop a new methodology of real-time tsunami inundation forecast using ocean bottom observation data and construct a prototype system that implements the developed forecasting method for the Pacific coast of Chiba prefecture (Sotobo area). We employ a database-based approach because inundation is a strongly non-linear phenomenon and its calculation costs are rather heavy. We prepare tsunami scenario bank in advance, by constructing the possible tsunami sources, and calculating the tsunami waveforms at S-net stations, coastal tsunami heights and tsunami inundation on land. To calculate the inundation for target Sotobo area, we construct the 10-m-mesh precise elevation model with coastal structures. Based on the sensitivities analyses, we construct the tsunami scenario bank that efficiently covers possible tsunami scenarios affecting the Sotobo area. A real-time forecast is carried out by selecting several possible scenarios which can well explain real-time tsunami data observed at S-net from tsunami scenario bank. An advantage of our method is that tsunami inundations are estimated directly from the actual tsunami data without any source information, which may have large estimation errors. In addition to the forecast system, we develop Web services, APIs, and smartphone applications and brush them up through social experiments to provide the real-time tsunami observation and forecast information in easy way to understand toward urging people to evacuate.

  4. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-11-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  5. TSUNAMI LOADING ON BUILDINGS WITH OPENINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lukkunaprasit

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Reinforced concrete (RC buildings with openings in the masonry infill panels have shown superior performance to those without openings in the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Understanding the effect of openings and the resulting tsunami force is essential for an economical and safe design of vertical evacuation shelters against tsunamis. One-to-one hundred scale building models with square shape in plan were tested in a 40 m long hydraulic flume with 1 m x 1 m cross section. A mild slope of 0.5 degree representing the beach condition at Phuket, Thailand was simulated in the hydraulic laboratory. The model dimensions were 150 mm x 150 mm x 150 mm. Two opening configurations of the front and back walls were investigated, viz., 25% and 50% openings. Pressure sensors were placed on the faces of the model to measure the pressure distribution. A high frequency load cell was mounted at the base of the model to record the tsunami forces. A bi-linear pressure profile is proposed for determining the maximum tsunami force acting on solid square buildings. The influence of openings on the peak pressures on the front face of the model is found to be practically insignificant. For 25% and 50% opening models, the tsunami forces reduce by about 15% and 30% from the model without openings, respectively. The reduction in the tsunami force clearly demonstrates the benefit of openings in reducing the effect of tsunami on such buildings.

  6. High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2014-05-01

    Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12

  7. Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Tsunami Runup and Inundation Data for Sites Around the Island of Hawaiʻi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusdell, Frank A.; Chadderton, Amy; Hinchliffe, Graham; Hara, Andrew; Patenge, Brent; Weber, Tom

    2012-01-01

    At 0546 U.t.c. March 11, 2011, a Mw 9.0 ("great") earthquake occurred near the northeast coast of Honshu Island, Japan, generating a large tsunami that devastated the east coast of Japan and impacted many far-flung coastal sites around the Pacific Basin. After the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami alert for the State of Hawaii, followed by a tsunami-warning notice from the local State Civil Defense on March 10, 2011 (Japan is 19 hours ahead of Hawaii). After the waves passed the islands, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) measured inundation (maximum inland distance of flooding), runup (elevation at maximum extent of inundation) and took photographs in coastal areas around the Island of Hawaiʻi. Although the damage in West Hawaiʻi is well documented, HVO's mapping revealed that East Hawaiʻi coastlines were also impacted by the tsunami. The intent of this report is to provide runup and inundation data for sites around the Island of Hawaiʻi.

  8. Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2015-01-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26

  9. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  10. Predicting natural catastrophes tsunamis

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2005-01-01

    1. Tsunamis - Introduction - Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation - The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning - General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of "tsunami earthquakes" Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys - Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and related milestones. Reconstructing historical tsunamis: eyewitnesses and geological evidence 5. Lessons from the 2004 Indonesian tsunami - Lessons in seismology Lessons in Geology The new technologies Lessons in civ...

  11. Transient Tsunamis in Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couston, L.; Mei, C.; Alam, M.

    2013-12-01

    A large number of lakes are surrounded by steep and unstable mountains with slopes prone to failure. As a result, landslides are likely to occur and impact water sitting in closed reservoirs. These rare geological phenomena pose serious threats to dam reservoirs and nearshore facilities because they can generate unexpectedly large tsunami waves. In fact, the tallest wave experienced by contemporary humans occurred because of a landslide in the narrow bay of Lituya in 1958, and five years later, a deadly landslide tsunami overtopped Lake Vajont's dam, flooding and damaging villages along the lakefront and in the Piave valley. If unstable slopes and potential slides are detected ahead of time, inundation maps can be drawn to help people know the risks, and mitigate the destructive power of the ensuing waves. These maps give the maximum wave runup height along the lake's vertical and sloping boundaries, and can be obtained by numerical simulations. Keeping track of the moving shorelines along beaches is challenging in classical Eulerian formulations because the horizontal extent of the fluid domain can change over time. As a result, assuming a solid slide and nonbreaking waves, here we develop a nonlinear shallow-water model equation in the Lagrangian framework to address the problem of transient landslide-tsunamis. In this manner, the shorelines' three-dimensional motion is part of the solution. The model equation is hyperbolic and can be solved numerically by finite differences. Here, a 4th order Runge-Kutta method and a compact finite-difference scheme are implemented to integrate in time and spatially discretize the forced shallow-water equation in Lagrangian coordinates. The formulation is applied to different lake and slide geometries to better understand the effects of the lake's finite lengths and slide's forcing mechanism on the generated wavefield. Specifically, for a slide moving down a plane beach, we show that edge-waves trapped by the shoreline and free

  12. Tsunami Casualty Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, H.

    2007-12-01

    More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.

  13. Sedimentology of onshore tsunami deposits of the Indian Ocean tsunami, 2004 in the mangrove forest of the Curieuse Marine National Park, Seychelles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nentwig, V.; Bahlburg, H.; Monthy, D.

    2012-12-01

    The Seychelles were severely affected by the December 26, 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Since the tsunami history of small islands often remains unclear due to a young historiography we conducted a study of onshore tsunami deposits on the Seychelles in order to understand the scale of impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and potential predecessors. As part of this project we found and studied onshore tsunami deposits in the mangrove forest at Old Turtle Pond bay on the east coast of Curieuse Island. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused a change of habitat due to sedimentation of an extended sand sheet in the mangrove forest. We present results of the first detailed sedimentological study of onshore tsunami deposits of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami conducted on the Seychelles. The Curieuse mangrove forest at Old Turtle Pond bay is part of the Curieuse Marine National Park. It is thus protected from anthropogenic interference. Towards the sea it was shielded until the tsunami by a 500 m long and 1.5 m high causeway which was set up in 1909 as a sediment trap. The causeway was destroyed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The silt to fine sand sized and organic rich mangrove soil was subsequently covered by carbonate fine to medium sand (1.5 to 2.1 Φ) containing coarser carbonate shell debris which had been trapped outside the mangrove bay before the tsunami. The tsunami deposited a sand sheet which is organized into different lobes. They extend landwards to different inundation distances as a function of morphology. Maximum inundation distance is 200 m. The sediments often cover the pneumatophores of the mangroves. No landward fining trend of the sand sheet has been observed. On the different sand lobes carbonate-cemented sandstone debris ranging in size from 0.5 up to 12 cm occurs. Also numerous mostly fragmented shells of bivalves and molluscs were distributed on top of the sand lobes. Intact bivalve shells were mostly positioned with the convex side upwards

  14. Sedimentology of Coastal Deposits in the Seychelles Islands—Evidence of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nentwig, Vanessa; Bahlburg, Heinrich; Monthy, Devis

    2015-03-01

    The Seychelles, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean at a distance of 4,500-5,000 km from the west coast of Sumatra, were severely affected by the December 26, 2004 tsunami with wave heights up to 4 m. Since the tsunami history of small islands often remains unclear due to a young historical record, it is important to study the geological traces of high energy events preserved along their coasts. We conducted a survey of the impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on the inner Seychelles islands. In detail we studied onshore tsunami deposits in the mangrove forest at Old Turtle Pond in the Curieuse Marine National Park on the east coast of Curieuse Island. It is thus protected from anthropogenic interference. Towards the sea it was shielded until the tsunami in 2004 by a 500 m long and 1.5 m high causeway which was set up in 1909 as a sediment trap and assuring a low energetic hydrodynamic environment for the protection of the mangroves. The causeway was destroyed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The tsunami caused a change of habitat by the sedimentation of sand lobes in the mangrove forest. The dark organic rich mangrove soil (1.9 Φ) was covered by bimodal fine to medium carbonate sand (1.7-2.2 Φ) containing coarser carbonate shell fragments and debris. Intertidal sediments and the mangrove soil acted as sources of the lobe deposits. The sand sheet deposited by the tsunami is organized into different lobes. They extend landwards to different inundation distances as a function of the morphology of the onshore area. The maximum extent of 180 m from the shoreline indicates the minimum inundation distance to the tsunami. The top parts of the sand lobes cover the pneumatophores of the mangroves. There is no landward fining trend along the sand lobes and normal grading of the deposits is rare, occurring only in 1 of 7 sites. The sand lobe deposits also lack sedimentary structures. On the surface of the sand lobes numerous mostly fragmented shells of bivalves and

  15. RIP Input Tables From WAPDEG for LA Design Selection: Repository Horizon Elevation - 2-Level AML 50% and Near Maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B.E. Bullard

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this calculation is to document the WAPDEG version 3.09 (CRWMS M and O 1998b). Software Routine Report for WAPDEG (Version 3.09) simulations used to analyze waste package degradation and failure under the repository exposure conditions characterized by a two-tier thermal loading repository design. Also documented is the post-processing of these results into tables of waste-package-degradation-time histories suitable for use as input into the Integrated Probabilistic Simulator for Environmental Systems (RIP) version 5.19.01 (Golder Associates 1998) computer program. Specifically, the WAPDEG simulations discussed in this calculation correspond to waste package emplacement conditions (repository environment and design) as defined in the Total System Performance Assessment-Viability Assessment (CRWMS M and O 1998a). Total System Performance Assessment-Viability Assessment (TSPA-VA) Analyses Technical Basis Document--Chapter 5, Waste Package Degradation Modeling And Abstraction, pp. 5-27 to 5-29, with the exception that a two-tier thermal loading design feature as specified in the License Application Design Selection (LADS) study was analyzed. The particular design feature evaluated in this report is a modification of the repository horizon elevation and layout within the Topopah Springs Member of Yucca Mountain. Specifically, the modification consists of adding a second level, 50-m above the base case repository layout. Two options were considered, representing two variations in thermal loading. In Design Feature 25e (designated DF25e), each level has an Areal Mass Loading (AML) of 42.5 MTU/acre (i.e., half the VA base case). In Design Feature 25f (designated DF25), each level has an AML of 64MTU/acre. As a result of the change in waste package placement relative to the TSPA-VA base-case design, different temperature and relative humidity time histories at the waste package surface are calculated (input to the WAPDEG simulations), and consequently

  16. Tsunami hazard at the Western Mediterranean Spanish coast from seismic sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; González, M.; Otero, L.

    2011-01-01

    Spain represents an important part of the tourism sector in the Western Mediterranean, which has been affected in the past by tsunamis. Although the tsunami risk at the Spanish coasts is not the highest of the Mediterranean, the necessity of tsunami risk mitigation measures should not be neglected. In the Mediterranean area, Spain is exposed to two different tectonic environments with contrasting characteristics. On one hand, the Alboran Basin characterised by transcurrent and transpressive tectonics and, on the other hand, the North Algerian fold and thrust belt, characterised by compressive tectonics. A set of 22 seismic tsunamigenic sources has been used to estimate the tsunami threat over the Spanish Mediterranean coast of the Iberian peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Maximum wave elevation maps and tsunami travel times have been computed by means of numerical modelling and we have obtained estimations of threat levels for each source over the Spanish coast. The sources on the Western edge of North Algeria are the most dangerous, due to their threat to the South-Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula and to the Western Balearic Islands. In general, the Northern Algerian sources pose a greater risk to the Spanish coast than the Alboran Sea sources, which only threaten the peninsular coast. In the Iberian Peninsula, the Spanish provinces of Almeria and Murcia are the most exposed, while all the Balearic Islands can be affected by the North Algerian sources with probable severe damage, specially the islands of Ibiza and Minorca. The results obtained in this work are useful to plan future regional and local warning systems, as well as to set the priority areas to conduct research on detailed tsunami risk.

  17. Tsunami hazard at the Western Mediterranean Spanish coast from seismic sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Álvarez-Gómez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Spain represents an important part of the tourism sector in the Western Mediterranean, which has been affected in the past by tsunamis. Although the tsunami risk at the Spanish coasts is not the highest of the Mediterranean, the necessity of tsunami risk mitigation measures should not be neglected. In the Mediterranean area, Spain is exposed to two different tectonic environments with contrasting characteristics. On one hand, the Alboran Basin characterised by transcurrent and transpressive tectonics and, on the other hand, the North Algerian fold and thrust belt, characterised by compressive tectonics. A set of 22 seismic tsunamigenic sources has been used to estimate the tsunami threat over the Spanish Mediterranean coast of the Iberian peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Maximum wave elevation maps and tsunami travel times have been computed by means of numerical modelling and we have obtained estimations of threat levels for each source over the Spanish coast. The sources on the Western edge of North Algeria are the most dangerous, due to their threat to the South-Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula and to the Western Balearic Islands. In general, the Northern Algerian sources pose a greater risk to the Spanish coast than the Alboran Sea sources, which only threaten the peninsular coast. In the Iberian Peninsula, the Spanish provinces of Almeria and Murcia are the most exposed, while all the Balearic Islands can be affected by the North Algerian sources with probable severe damage, specially the islands of Ibiza and Minorca. The results obtained in this work are useful to plan future regional and local warning systems, as well as to set the priority areas to conduct research on detailed tsunami risk.

  18. Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Shinji

    2015-01-01

    Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami.

  19. Sheet-gravel evidence for a late Holocene tsunami run-up on beach dunes, Great Barrier Island, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichol, Scott L.; Lian, Olav B.; Carter, Charles H.

    2003-01-01

    A semi-continuous sheet of granule to cobble-size clasts forms a distinctive deposit on sand dunes located on a coastal barrier in Whangapoua Bay, Great Barrier Island, New Zealand. The gravel sheet extends from the toe of the foredune to 14.3 m above mean sea level and 200 m landward from the beach. Clasts are rounded to sub-rounded and comprise lithologies consistent with local bedrock. Terrestrial sources for the gravel are considered highly unlikely due to the isolation of the dunes from hillslopes and streams. The only source for the clasts is the nearshore to inner shelf of Whangapoua Bay, where gravel sediments have been previously documented. The mechanism for transport of the gravel is unlikely to be storm surge due to the elevation of the deposit; maximum-recorded storm surge on this coast is 0.8 m above mean high water spring tide. Aeolian processes are also discounted due to the size of clasts and the elevation at which they occur. Tsunami is therefore considered the most probable mechanism for gravel transport. Minimum run-up height of the tsunami was 14.3 m, based on maximum elevation of gravel deposits. Optical ages on dune sands beneath and covering the gravel allow age bracketing to 0-4.7 ka. Within this time frame, numerous documented regional seismic and volcanic events could have generated the tsunami, notably submarine volcanism along the southern Kermadec arc to the east-southeast of Great Barrier Island where large magnitude events are documented for the late Holocene. Radiocarbon ages on shell from Maori middens that appear to have been reworked by tsunami run-up constrain the age of this event to post ca. 1400 AD. Regardless of the precise age of this event, the well-preserved nature of the Whangapoua gravel deposit provides for an improved understanding of the high degree of spatial variability in tsunami run-up.

  20. The tsunami phenomenon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röbke, B. R.; Vött, A.

    2017-12-01

    With human activity increasingly concentrating on coasts, tsunamis (from Japanese tsu = harbour, nami = wave) are a major natural hazard to today's society. Stimulated by disastrous tsunami impacts in recent years, for instance in south-east Asia (2004) or in Japan (2011), tsunami science has significantly flourished, which has brought great advances in hazard assessment and mitigation plans. Based on tsunami research of the last decades, this paper provides a thorough treatise on the tsunami phenomenon from a geoscientific point of view. Starting with the wave features, tsunamis are introduced as long shallow water waves or wave trains crossing entire oceans without major energy loss. At the coast, tsunamis typically show wave shoaling, funnelling and resonance effects as well as a significant run-up and backflow. Tsunami waves are caused by a sudden displacement of the water column due to a number of various trigger mechanisms. Such are earthquakes as the main trigger, submarine and subaerial mass wastings, volcanic activity, atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis) and cosmic impacts, as is demonstrated by giving corresponding examples from the past. Tsunamis are known to have a significant sedimentary and geomorphological off- and onshore response. So-called tsunamites form allochthonous high-energy deposits that are left at the coast during tsunami landfall. Tsunami deposits show typical sedimentary features, as basal erosional unconformities, fining-upward and -landward, a high content of marine fossils, rip-up clasts from underlying units and mud caps, all reflecting the hydrodynamic processes during inundation. The on- and offshore behaviour of tsunamis and related sedimentary processes can be simulated using hydro- and morphodynamic numerical models. The paper provides an overview of the basic tsunami modelling techniques, including discretisation, guidelines for appropriate temporal and spatial resolution as well as the nesting method. Furthermore, the

  1. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  2. Real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and damage mapping towards enhancing tsunami disaster resiliency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshimura, S.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.

    2014-12-01

    With use of modern computing power and advanced sensor networks, a project is underway to establish a new system of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance society's resilience in the aftermath of major tsunami disaster. The system consists of fusion of real-time crustal deformation monitoring/fault model estimation by Ohta et al. (2012), high-performance real-time tsunami propagation/inundation modeling with NEC's vector supercomputer SX-ACE, damage/loss estimation models (Koshimura et al., 2013), and geo-informatics. After a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, the first response of the system is to identify the tsunami source model by applying RAPiD Algorithm (Ohta et al., 2012) to observed RTK-GPS time series at GEONET sites in Japan. As performed in the data obtained during the 2011 Tohoku event, we assume less than 10 minutes as the acquisition time of the source model. Given the tsunami source, the system moves on to running tsunami propagation and inundation model which was optimized on the vector supercomputer SX-ACE to acquire the estimation of time series of tsunami at offshore/coastal tide gauges to determine tsunami travel and arrival time, extent of inundation zone, maximum flow depth distribution. The implemented tsunami numerical model is based on the non-linear shallow-water equations discretized by finite difference method. The merged bathymetry and topography grids are prepared with 10 m resolution to better estimate the tsunami inland penetration. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, the system performs GIS analysis to determine the numbers of exposed population and structures using census data, then estimates the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve (Koshimura et al., 2013). Since the tsunami source model is determined, the model is supposed to complete the estimation within 10 minutes. The results are disseminated as mapping products to

  3. Seismically generated tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcas, Diego; Segur, Harvey

    2012-04-13

    People around the world know more about tsunamis than they did 10 years ago, primarily because of two events: a tsunami on 26 December 2004 that killed more than 200,000 people around the shores of the Indian Ocean; and an earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 that killed nearly 15,000 more and triggered a nuclear accident, with consequences that are still unfolding. This paper has three objectives: (i) to summarize our current knowledge of the dynamics of tsunamis; (ii) to describe how that knowledge is now being used to forecast tsunamis; and (iii) to suggest some policy changes that might protect people better from the dangers of future tsunamis.

  4. Observation-based Quantitative Uncertainty Estimation for Realtime Tsunami Inundation Forecast using ABIC and Ensemble Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagawa, T.

    2016-12-01

    An ensemble forecasting scheme for tsunami inundation is presented. The scheme consists of three elemental methods. The first is a hierarchical Bayesian inversion using Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). The second is Montecarlo sampling from a probability density function of multidimensional normal distribution. The third is ensamble analysis of tsunami inundation simulations with multiple tsunami sources. Simulation based validation of the model was conducted. A tsunami scenario of M9.1 Nankai earthquake was chosen as a target of validation. Tsunami inundation around Nagoya Port was estimated by using synthetic tsunami waveforms at offshore GPS buoys. The error of estimation of tsunami inundation area was about 10% even if we used only ten minutes observation data. The estimation accuracy of waveforms on/off land and spatial distribution of maximum tsunami inundation depth is demonstrated.

  5. Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2018-01-01

    Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  6. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

    2006-12-01

    The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

  7. Worst-Case Scenario Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Two Historically and Economically Important Districts in Eastern Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.; Paparo, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The portion of the eastern Sicily coastline (southern Italy), ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf (to the north) down to the southern-eastern end of the island, represents a very important geographical domain from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view. Here the two major cities of Augusta and Siracusa are found. In particular, the Augusta bay hosts one of the largest petrochemical poles in the Mediterranean, and Siracusa is listed among the UNESCO World Heritage Sites since 2005. This area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, the most famous being the 365, 1169, 1693 and 1908 tsunamis. The choice of this area as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction is then fully justified. This is being developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). We assess the tsunami hazard for the Augusta-Siracusa area through the worst-case credible scenario technique, which can be schematically divided into the following steps: 1) Selection of five main source areas, both in the near- and in the far-field (Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, Messina Straits, Ionian subduction zone, Calabria offshore, western Hellenic Trench); 2) Choice of potential and credible tsunamigenic faults in each area: 38 faults were selected, with properly assigned magnitude, geometry and focal mechanism; 3) Computation of the maximum tsunami wave elevations along the eastern Sicily coast on a coarse grid (by means of the in-house code UBO-TSUFD) and extraction of the 9 scenarios that produce the largest effects in the target areas of Augusta and Siracusa; 4) For each of the 9 scenarios we run numerical UBO-TSUFD simulations over a set of five nested grids, with grid cells size decreasing from 3 km in the open Ionian

  8. Variation of Maximum Tree Height and Annual Shoot Growth of Smith Fir at Various Elevations in the Sygera Mountains, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yafeng; Čufar, Katarina; Eckstein, Dieter; Liang, Eryuan

    2012-01-01

    Little is known about tree height and height growth (as annual shoot elongation of the apical part of vertical stems) of coniferous trees growing at various altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau, which provides a high-elevation natural platform for assessing tree growth performance in relation to future climate change. We here investigated the variation of maximum tree height and annual height increment of Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) in seven forest plots (30 m×40 m) along two altitudinal transects between 3,800 m and 4,200/4,390 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Four plots were located on north-facing slopes and three plots on southeast-facing slopes. At each site, annual shoot growth was obtained by measuring the distance between successive terminal bud scars along the main stem of 25 trees that were between 2 and 4 m high. Maximum/mean tree height and mean annual height increment of Smith fir decreased with increasing altitude up to the tree line, indicative of a stress gradient (the dominant temperature gradient) along the altitudinal transect. Above-average mean minimum summer (particularly July) temperatures affected height increment positively, whereas precipitation had no significant effect on shoot growth. The time series of annual height increments of Smith fir can be used for the reconstruction of past climate on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. In addition, it can be expected that the rising summer temperatures observed in the recent past and anticipated for the future will enhance Smith fir's growth throughout its altitudinal distribution range. PMID:22396738

  9. Tsunami on Sanriku Coast in 1586: Orphan or Ghost Tsunami ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Peruvian earthquake on July 9, 1586 was the oldest earthquake that damaged Lima. The tsunami height was assigned as 24 m in Callao and 1-2 m in Miyagi prefecture in Japan by Soloviev and Go (1975). Dorbath et al. (1990) studied historical earthquakes in Peru and estimated that the 1586 earthquake was similar to the 1974 event (Mw 8.1) with source length of 175 km. They referred two different tsunami heights, 3. 7m and 24 m, in Callao, and judged that the latter was exaggerated. Okal et al. (2006) could not make a source model to explain both tsunami heights in Callao and Japan. More recently, Butler et al. (2017) estimated the age of coral boulders in Hawaii as AD 1572 +/- 21, speculated the tsunami source in Aleutians, and attributed it to the source of the 1586 tsunami in Japan. Historical tsunamis, both near-field and far-field, have been documented along the Sanriku coast since 1586 (e.g., Watanabe, 1998). However, there is no written document for the 1586 tsunami (Tsuji et al., 2013). Ninomiya (1960) compiled the historical tsunami records on the Sanriku coast soon after the 1960 Chilean tsunami, and correlated the legend of tsunami in Tokura with the 1586 Peruvian earthquake, although he noted that the dates were different. About the legend, he referred to Kunitomi(1933) who compiled historical tsunami data after the 1933 Showa Sanriku tsunami. Kunitomi referred to "Tsunami history of Miyagi prefecture" published after the 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunami. "Tsunami history" described the earthquake and tsunami damage of Tensho earthquake on January 18 (Gregorian),1586 in central Japan, and correlated the tsunami legend in Tokura on June 30, 1586 (G). Following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, tsunami legend in Tokura was studied again (Ebina, 2015). A local person published a story he heard from his grandfather that many small valleys were named following the 1611 tsunami, which inundated further inland than the 2011 tsunami. Ebina (2015), based on historical documents

  10. Characteristics of Recent Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, A. D.; Eble, M. C.; Mungov, G.

    2017-12-01

    How long do tsunamis impact a coast? How often is the largest tsunami wave the first to arrive? How do measurements in the far field differ from those made close to the source? Extending the study of Eblé et al. (2015) who showed the prevalence of a leading negative phase, we assimilate and summarize characteristics of known tsunami events recorded on bottom pressure and coastal water level stations throughout the world oceans to answer these and other questions. An extensive repository of data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) archive for tsunami-ready U.S. tide gauge stations, housing more than 200 sites going back 10 years are utilized as are some of the more 3000 marigrams (analog or paper tide gauge records) for tsunami events. The focus of our study is on five tsunamis generated by earthquakes: 2010 Chile (Maule), 2011 East Japan (Tohoku), 2012 Haida Gwaii, 2014 Chile (Iquique), and 2015 Central Chile and one meteorologically generated tsunami on June 2013 along the U.S. East Coast and Caribbean. Reference: Eblé, M., Mungov, G. & Rabinovich, A. On the Leading Negative Phase of Major 2010-2014 Tsunamis. Pure Appl. Geophys. (2015) 172: 3493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1127-5

  11. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from incomplete and uncertain historical catalogues with application to tsunamigenic regions in the Pacific Ocean.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, A.; Kijko, Andrzej; Stein, A.

    The paper presents a new method for empirical assessment of tsunami recurrence parameters, namely the mean tsunami activity rate λT , the Soloviev–Imamura frequency–magnitude power law bT -value, and the coastline-characteristic, maximum possible tsunami intensity imax . The three

  12. Airburst-Generated Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Marsha; Goodman, Jonathan

    2018-04-01

    This paper examines the questions of whether smaller asteroids that burst in the air over water can generate tsunamis that could pose a threat to distant locations. Such airburst-generated tsunamis are qualitatively different than the more frequently studied earthquake-generated tsunamis, and differ as well from tsunamis generated by asteroids that strike the ocean. Numerical simulations are presented using the shallow water equations in several settings, demonstrating very little tsunami threat from this scenario. A model problem with an explicit solution that demonstrates and explains the same phenomena found in the computations is analyzed. We discuss the question of whether compressibility and dispersion are important effects that should be included, and show results from a more sophisticated model problem using the linearized Euler equations that begins to addresses this.

  13. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  14. Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling - Concept to Practical Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Ian; Allsop, William; Robinson, David; Rossetto, Tiziana; McGovern, David; Todd, David

    2017-04-01

    Whilst many researchers have conducted simple 'tsunami impact' studies, few engineering tools are available to assess the onshore impacts of tsunami, with no agreed methods available to predict loadings on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Most previous impact studies have relied upon unrealistic waveforms (solitary or dam-break waves and bores) rather than full-duration tsunami waves, or have used simplified models of nearshore and over-land flows. Over the last 10+ years, pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory have been developed into an exciting and versatile technology, allowing the forces of real-world tsunami to be reproduced and measured in a laboratory environment for the first time. These devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example coastal defences and infrastructure. They have also reproduced full-duration tsunamis including Mercator 2004 and Tohoku 2011, both at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models of these tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences, pressures / forces on buildings, and scour at idealised buildings. This presentation will describe how these Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facilities within which they operate, and will present research results from three generations of Tsunami Simulators. Highlights of direct importance to natural hazard modellers and coastal engineers include measurements of wave run-up levels, forces on single and multiple buildings and comparison with previous theoretical predictions. Multiple buildings have two malign effects. The density of buildings to flow area (blockage ratio) increases water depths and flow velocities in the 'streets'. But the increased building densities themselves also increase the cost of flow per unit area (both personal and monetary). The most recent study with the Tsunami

  15. The 2017 México Tsunami Record, Numerical Modeling and Threat Assessment in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia

    2018-03-01

    An M w 8.2 earthquake and tsunami occurred offshore the Pacific coast of México on 2017-09-08, at 04:49 UTC. Costa Rican tide gauges have registered a total of 21 local, regional and far-field tsunamis. The Quepos gauge registered 12 tsunamis between 1960 and 2014 before it was relocated inside a harbor by late 2014, where it registered two more tsunamis. This paper analyzes the 2017 México tsunami as recorded by the Quepos gauge. It took 2 h for the tsunami to arrive to Quepos, with a first peak height of 9.35 cm and a maximum amplitude of 18.8 cm occurring about 6 h later. As a decision support tool, this tsunami was modeled for Quepos in real time using ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) with the finer grid having a resolution of 1 arcsec ( 30 m). However, the model did not replicate the tsunami record well, probably due to the lack of a finer and more accurate bathymetry. In 2014, the National Tsunami Monitoring System of Costa Rica (SINAMOT) was created, acting as a national tsunami warning center. The occurrence of the 2017 México tsunami raised concerns about warning dissemination mechanisms for most coastal communities in Costa Rica, due to its short travel time.

  16. Numerical Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Only Active Lesser Antilles Arc Submarine Volcano: Kick 'em Jenny.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondin, F. J. Y.; Dorville, J. F. M.; Robertson, R. E. A.

    2015-12-01

    The Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc has potentially been hit by prehistorical regional tsunamis generated by voluminous volcanic landslides (volume > 1 km3) among the 53 events recognized so far. No field evidence of these tsunamis are found in the vincity of the sources. Such a scenario taking place nowadays would trigger hazardous tsunami waves bearing potentially catastrophic consequences for the closest islands and regional offshore oil platforms.Here we applied a complete hazard assessment method on the only active submarine volcano of the arc Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ). KeJ is the southernmost edifice with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. From the three identified landslide episodes one is associated with a collapse volume ca. 4.4 km3. Numerical simulations considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami. An edifice current volume estimate is ca. 1.5 km3.Previous study exists in relationship to assessment of regional tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (run-up) in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. However this assessment was based on inferred volume of collapse material. We aim to firstly quantify potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA); secondly to assess first order run-ups and maximum inland inundation distance for Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, i.e. two important economic centers of the Lesser Antilles. In this framework we present for seven geomechanical models tested in the RSIA step maps of critical failure surface associated with factor of stability (Fs) for twelve sectors of 30° each; then we introduce maps of expected potential run-ups (run-up × the probability of failure at a sector) at the shoreline.The RSIA evaluates critical potential failure surface associated with Fs <1 as compared to areas of deficit/surplus of mass/volume identified on the volcanic edifice using (VolcanoFit 2

  17. Mental Health in Sumatra After the Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Friedman, Jed; Gillespie, Thomas; Ingwersen, Nicholas; Pynoos, Robert; Rifai, Iip Umar; Sikoki, Bondan; Steinberg, Alan; Sumantri, Cecep; Suriastini, Wayan; Thomas, Duncan

    2008-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed the levels and correlates of posttraumatic stress reactivity (PTSR) of more than 20000 adult tsunami survivors by analyzing survey data from coastal Aceh and North Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods. A population-representative sample of individuals interviewed before the tsunami was traced in 2005 to 2006. We constructed 2 scales measuring PTSR by using 7 symptom items from the Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Checklist–Civilian Version. One scale measured PTSR at the time of interview, and the other measured PTSR at the point of maximum intensity since the disaster. Results. PTSR scores were highest for respondents from heavily damaged areas. In all areas, scores declined over time. Gender and age were significant predictors of PTSR; markers of socioeconomic status before the tsunami were not. Exposure to traumatic events, loss of kin, and property damage were significantly associated with higher PTSR scores. Conclusions. The tsunami produced posttraumatic stress reactions across a wide region of Aceh and North Sumatra. Public health will be enhanced by the provision of counseling services that reach not only people directly affected by the tsunami but also those living beyond the area of immediate impact. PMID:18633091

  18. Global Tsunami Database: Adding Geologic Deposits, Proxies, and Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocko, V. R.; Varner, J.

    2007-12-01

    A result of collaboration between NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES), the Global Tsunami Database includes instrumental records, human observations, and now, information inferred from the geologic record. Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data, historical reports, and information gleaned from published tsunami deposit research build a multi-faceted view of tsunami hazards and their history around the world. Tsunami history provides clues to what might happen in the future, including frequency of occurrence and maximum wave heights. However, instrumental and written records commonly span too little time to reveal the full range of a region's tsunami hazard. The sedimentary deposits of tsunamis, identified with the aid of modern analogs, increasingly complement instrumental and human observations. By adding the component of tsunamis inferred from the geologic record, the Global Tsunami Database extends the record of tsunamis backward in time. Deposit locations, their estimated age and descriptions of the deposits themselves fill in the tsunami record. Tsunamis inferred from proxies, such as evidence for coseismic subsidence, are included to estimate recurrence intervals, but are flagged to highlight the absence of a physical deposit. Authors may submit their own descriptions and upload digital versions of publications. Users may sort by any populated field, including event, location, region, age of deposit, author, publication type (extract information from peer reviewed publications only, if you wish), grain size, composition, presence/absence of plant material. Users may find tsunami deposit references for a given location, event or author; search for particular properties of tsunami deposits; and even identify potential collaborators. Users may also download public-domain documents. Data and information may be viewed using tools designed to extract and

  19. Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Sheng; Zhai, Jinjin; Tao, Shanshan

    2017-06-01

    Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.

  20. Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic

  1. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of the Pacific Coast of Mexico: Case Study Based on the 1995 Colima Earthquake Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a novel computational framework to carry out probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Pacific coast of Mexico. The new approach enables the consideration of stochastic tsunami source scenarios having variable fault geometry and heterogeneous slip that are constrained by an extensive database of rupture models for historical earthquakes around the world. The assessment focuses upon the 1995 Jalisco–Colima Earthquake Tsunami from a retrospective viewpoint. Numerous source scenarios of large subduction earthquakes are generated to assess the sensitivity and variability of tsunami inundation characteristics of the target region. Analyses of nine slip models along the Mexican Pacific coast are performed, and statistical characteristics of slips (e.g., coherent structures of slip spectra are estimated. The source variability allows exploring a wide range of tsunami scenarios for a moment magnitude (Mw 8 subduction earthquake in the Mexican Pacific region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the tsunami height variability. The numerical results indicate a strong sensitivity of maximum tsunami height to major slip locations in the source and indicate major uncertainty at the first peak of tsunami waves.

  2. Observations and Modeling of the August 27, 2012 Earthquake and Tsunami affecting El Salvador and Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero, Jose C.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick J.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Newman, Andrew V.; Convers, Jaime A.

    2014-12-01

    On 27 August 2012 (04:37 UTC, 26 August 10:37 p.m. local time) a magnitude M w = 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of El Salvador and generated surprisingly large local tsunami. Following the event, local and international tsunami teams surveyed the tsunami effects in El Salvador and northern Nicaragua. The tsunami reached a maximum height of ~6 m with inundation of up to 340 m inland along a 25 km section of coastline in eastern El Salvador. Less severe inundation was reported in northern Nicaragua. In the far-field, the tsunami was recorded by a DART buoy and tide gauges in several locations of the eastern Pacific Ocean but did not cause any damage. The field measurements and recordings are compared to numerical modeling results using initial conditions of tsunami generation based on finite-fault earthquake and tsunami inversions and a uniform slip model.

  3. Safety evaluation of nuclear power plant against the virtual tsunami

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chin, S. B.; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2004-01-01

    The main scope of this study is the numerical analysis of virtual tsunami event near the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plants. In the numerical analysis, the maximum run-up height and draw-down are estimated at the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plants. The computer program developed in this study describes the propagation and associated run-up process of tsunamis by solving linear and nonlinear shallow-water equations with finite difference methods. It can be used to check the safety of a nuclear power plant against tsunami attacks. The program can also be used to calculate run-up height of wave and provide proper design criteria for coastal facilities and structures. A maximum inundation zone along the coastline can be developed by using the moving boundary condition. As a result, it is predicted that the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plants might be safe against the virtual tsunami event. Although the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plants are safe against the virtual tsunami event, the occurrence of a huge tsunami in the seismic gap should be investigated in detail. Furthermore, the possibility of nearshore tsunamis around the Korean Peninsula should also be studied and monitored continuously

  4. The Three Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antcliff, Richard R.

    2007-01-01

    We often talk about how different our world is from our parent's world. We then extrapolate this thinking to our children and try to imagine the world they will face. This is hard enough. However, change is changing! The rate at which change is occurring is accelerating. These new ideas, technologies and ecologies appear to be coming at us like tsunamis. Our approach to responding to these oncoming tsunamis will frame the future our children will live in. There are many of these tsunamis; I am just going to focus on three really big ones heading our way.

  5. St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1/3 arc-second St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands Coastal Digital Elevation Model will be used to support NOAA's tsunami forecast system and for tsunami inundation...

  6. Test of TEDA, Tsunami Early Detection Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressan, Lidia; Tinti, Stefano

    2010-05-01

    Tsunami detection in real-time, both offshore and at the coastline, plays a key role in Tsunami Warning Systems since it provides so far the only reliable and timely proof of tsunami generation, and is used to confirm or cancel tsunami warnings previously issued on the basis of seismic data alone. Moreover, in case of submarine or coastal landslide generated tsunamis, which are not announced by clear seismic signals and are typically local, real-time detection at the coastline might be the fastest way to release a warning, even if the useful time for emergency operations might be limited. TEDA is an algorithm for real-time detection of tsunami signal on sea-level records, developed by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. The development and testing of the algorithm has been accomplished within the framework of the Italian national project DPC-INGV S3 and the European project TRANSFER. The algorithm is to be implemented at station level, and it is based therefore only on sea-level data of a single station, either a coastal tide-gauge or an offshore buoy. TEDA's principle is to discriminate the first tsunami wave from the previous background signal, which implies the assumption that the tsunami waves introduce a difference in the previous sea-level signal. Therefore, in TEDA the instantaneous (most recent) and the previous background sea-level elevation gradients are characterized and compared by proper functions (IS and BS) that are updated at every new data acquisition. Detection is triggered when the instantaneous signal function passes a set threshold and at the same time it is significantly bigger compared to the previous background signal. The functions IS and BS depend on temporal parameters that allow the algorithm to be adapted different situations: in general, coastal tide-gauges have a typical background spectrum depending on the location where the instrument is installed, due to local topography and bathymetry, while offshore buoys are

  7. Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.

    2012-12-01

    -computation - starting with those sources that carry the highest risk. Model computation zones are confined to regions at risk to save computation time. For example, Atlantic sources have been shown to not propagate into the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, fine grid computations are not performed in the Gulf for Atlantic sources. Outputs from the Atlantic model include forecast marigrams at selected sites, maximum amplitudes, drawdowns, and currents for all coastal points. The maximum amplitude maps will be supplemented with contoured energy flux maps which show more clearly the effects of bathymetric features on tsunami wave propagation. During an event, forecast marigrams will be compared to observations to adjust the model results. The modified forecasts will then be used to set alert levels between coastal breakpoints, and provided to emergency management.

  8. Development of tsunami hazard analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-08-15

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidebooks on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guidebook of tsunami deposits survey and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, and (2) field survey on tsunami deposit to prepare the guidebook. As to (1), we especially gear to tsunami deposits distributed in the Pacific coast of Tohoku region, and organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. In addition, as to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. These results are reflected in the guidebook on the tsunami deposits in the lake as needed. (author)

  9. Development of tsunami hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidebooks on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guidebook of tsunami deposits survey and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, and (2) field survey on tsunami deposit to prepare the guidebook. As to (1), we especially gear to tsunami deposits distributed in the Pacific coast of Tohoku region, and organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. In addition, as to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. These results are reflected in the guidebook on the tsunami deposits in the lake as needed. (author)

  10. Statistical emulation of landslide-induced tsunamis at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmanidou, D M; Guillas, S; Georgiopoulou, A; Dias, F

    2017-04-01

    Statistical methods constitute a useful approach to understand and quantify the uncertainty that governs complex tsunami mechanisms. Numerical experiments may often have a high computational cost. This forms a limiting factor for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, where numerous simulations are required. Statistical emulators, as surrogates of these simulators, can provide predictions of the physical process in a much faster and computationally inexpensive way. They can form a prominent solution to explore thousands of scenarios that would be otherwise numerically expensive and difficult to achieve. In this work, we build a statistical emulator of the deterministic codes used to simulate submarine sliding and tsunami generation at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic Ocean, in two stages. First we calibrate, against observations of the landslide deposits, the parameters used in the landslide simulations. This calibration is performed under a Bayesian framework using Gaussian Process (GP) emulators to approximate the landslide model, and the discrepancy function between model and observations. Distributions of the calibrated input parameters are obtained as a result of the calibration. In a second step, a GP emulator is built to mimic the coupled landslide-tsunami numerical process. The emulator propagates the uncertainties in the distributions of the calibrated input parameters inferred from the first step to the outputs. As a result, a quantification of the uncertainty of the maximum free surface elevation at specified locations is obtained.

  11. Tsunamis and marine life

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, D.V.S.; Ingole, B.S.; Tang, D.; Satyanarayan, B.; Zhao, H.

    The 26 December 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean exerted far reaching temporal and spatial impacts on marine biota. Our synthesis was based on satellite data acquired by the Laboratory for Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics (LED) of the South...

  12. Tsunami Risk Assessment Modelling in Chabahar Port, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delavar, M. R.; Mohammadi, H.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

    2017-09-01

    The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC), the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan) reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India) and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST). In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

  13. TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT MODELLING IN CHABAHAR PORT, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Delavar

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC, the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST. In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

  14. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  15. Floods and tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, Mark

    2006-06-01

    Floods and tsunamis cause few severe injuries, but those injuries can overwhelm local areas, depending on the magnitude of the disaster. Most injuries are extremity fractures, lacerations, and sprains. Because of the mechanism of soft tissue and bone injuries, infection is a significant risk. Aspiration pneumonias are also associated with tsunamis. Appropriate precautionary interventions prevent communicable dis-ease outbreaks. Psychosocial health issues must be considered.

  16. Near Field Modeling for the Maule Tsunami from DART, GPS and Finite Fault Solutions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcas, D.; Chamberlin, C.; Lagos, M.; Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Tang, L.; Wei, Y.

    2010-12-01

    The earthquake and tsunami of February, 27, 2010 in central Chile has rekindled an interest in developing techniques to predict the impact of near field tsunamis along the Chilean coastline. Following the earthquake, several initiatives were proposed to increase the density of seismic, pressure and motion sensors along the South American trench, in order to provide field data that could be used to estimate tsunami impact on the coast. However, the precise use of those data in the elaboration of a quantitative assessment of coastal tsunami damage has not been clarified. The present work makes use of seismic, Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART®) systems, and GPS measurements obtained during the Maule earthquake to initiate a number of tsunami inundation models along the rupture area by expressing different versions of the seismic crustal deformation in terms of NOAA’s tsunami unit source functions. Translation of all available real-time data into a feasible tsunami source is essential in near-field tsunami impact prediction in which an impact assessment must be generated under very stringent time constraints. Inundation results from each different source are then contrasted with field and tide gauge data by comparing arrival time, maximum wave height, maximum inundation and tsunami decay rate, using field data collected by the authors.

  17. Source of high tsunamis along the southernmost Ryukyu trench inferred from tsunami stratigraphy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Masataka; Kitamura, Akihisa; Tu, Yoko; Ohashi, Yoko; Imai, Takafumi; Nakamura, Mamoru; Ikuta, Ryoya; Miyairi, Yosuke; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Shishikura, Masanobu

    2018-01-01

    Four paleotsunamis deposits are exposed in a trench on the coastal lowland north of the southern Ryukyu subduction zone trench. Radiocarbon ages on coral and bivalve shells show that the four deposits record tsunamis date from the last 2000 yrs., including a historical tsunami with a maximum run-up of 30 m in 1771, for an average recurrence interval of approximately 600 yrs. Ground fissures in a soil beneath the 1771 tsunami deposit may have been generated by stronger shaking than recorded by historical documents. The repeated occurrence of the paleotsunami deposits supports a tectonic source model on the plate boundary rather than a nontectonic source model, such as submarine landslides. Assuming a thrust model at the subduction zone, the seismic coupling ratio may be as low as 20%.

  18. TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE NORTHERN AEGEAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Theilen-Willige

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency planning for the assessment of tsunami hazard inundation and of secondary effects of erosion and landslides, requires mapping that can help identify coastal areas that are potentially vulnerable. The present study reviews tsunami susceptibility mapping for coastal areas of Turkey and Greece in the Aegean Sea. Potential tsunami vulnerable locations were identified from LANDSAT ETM imageries, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 data and QuickBird imageries and from a GIS integrated spatial database. LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the SRTM-Mission were investigated to help detect traces of past flooding events. LANDSAT ETM imageries, merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data, clearly indicate the areas that may be prone to flooding if catastrophic tsunami events or storm surges occur.

  19. 2004 INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI ON THE MALDIVES ISLANDS: INITIAL OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara H. Keating

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Post-tsunami field surveys of the Maldives Islands where carried out to document the effects of the tsunami inundation. The study area was situated in the islands of South Male Atoll that were some of the most heavily damaged islands of the Maldive Islands. The tsunami damaged the natural environment, vegetation, man-made structures, and residents. The maximum tsunami wave height was 3-4 m. This level of inundation exceeded the height of most residents. The wave height was greatest on the eastern rim of the South Male Atoll (closest to the tsunami source and these islands were completely flooded. The islands within the interior of the atoll saw the lowest wave heights, and these were only marginally flooded.Surveys of flood lines left on the exterior and interior of structures were measured but proved to be substantially less than that reported by survivors. It appears that the highest inundation was not preserved as flood lines. We suggest that the turbulence associated with the tsunami inundation erased the highest lines or that they did not form due to an absence of debris and organic compounds that acted as adhesion during the initial flooding.Significant erosion was documented. Deposition took place in the form of sand sheets while only desultory deposition of coral clasts in marginal areas was found. Seasonal erosion, and storms are likely to remove most or all of the traces of the tsunami within these islands.

  20. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

    2009-01-01

    The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Survey Report on the Tsunami of the Michoacan, Mexico Earthquake of September 19, 1985

    OpenAIRE

    Abe, Katsuyuki; Hakuno, Motohiko; Takeuchi, Mikio; Katada, Toshiyuki

    1987-01-01

    The tsunami was caused by the Michoacan, Mexico earthquake (M. 8.1) of September 19, 1985. According to the site survey, sea water ran up to an elevation of 2 meters or more above sea level in the coastal areas of Mexico from Petatlan to Playa Azul. The tsunami was as high as 4 meters at Barra del Potosi and Playa Linda, where minor tsunami damages occurred; some thatched huts on the beaches were destroyed and pieces of furniture were swept out to sea. The tsunami magnitude Mt is estimated to...

  2. Tsunami Arrival Detection with High Frequency (HF Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Barrick

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative real-time observations of a tsunami have been limited to deep-water, pressure-sensor observations of changes in the sea surface elevation and observations of sea level fluctuations at the coast, which are essentially point measurements. Constrained by these data, models have been used for predictions and warning of the arrival of a tsunami, but to date no system exists for local detection of an actual incoming wave with a significant warning capability. Networks of coastal high frequency (HF-radars are now routinely observing surface currents in many countries. We report here on an empirical method for the detection of the initial arrival of a tsunami, and demonstrate its use with results from data measured by fourteen HF radar sites in Japan and USA following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Sendai, Japan, on 11 March 2011. The distance offshore at which the tsunami can be detected, and hence the warning time provided, depends on the bathymetry: the wider the shallow continental shelf, the greater this time. We compare arrival times at the radars with those measured by neighboring tide gauges. Arrival times measured by the radars preceded those at neighboring tide gauges by an average of 19 min (Japan and 15 min (USA The initial water-height increase due to the tsunami as measured by the tide gauges was moderate, ranging from 0.3 to 2 m. Thus it appears possible to detect even moderate tsunamis using this method. Larger tsunamis could obviously be detected further from the coast. We find that tsunami arrival within the radar coverage area can be announced 8 min (i.e., twice the radar spectral time resolution after its first appearance. This can provide advance warning of the tsunami approach to the coastline locations.

  3. Tsunami Generation and Propagation by 3D deformable Landslides and Application to Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2014-05-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse account for some of the most catastrophic natural disasters recorded and can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1 elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified

  4. Tsunamis triggered by the 12 January 2010 Earthquake in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Hillaire, J. V.; Molière, E.; Mohammed, F.; Wei, Y.

    2010-12-01

    On 12 January 2010 a magnitude Mw 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west-southwest of Haiti’s Capital of Port-au-Prince, which resulted in more than 230,000 fatalities. In addition tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least 3 fatalities at Petit Paradis. Unfortunately, the people of Haiti had neither ancestral knowledge nor educational awareness of tsunami hazards despite the 1946 Dominican Republic tsunami at Hispaniola’s northeast coast. In sharp contrast Sri Lankan UN-soldiers on duty at Jacmel self-evacuated given the memory of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, and performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 31 January to 7 February 2010 ITST covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s south coast between Pedernales, Dominican Republic and Jacmel, Haiti. The Hispaniola survey data includes more than 20 runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impacts peaked with maximum flow depths exceeding 3 m both at Petit Paradis inside the Bay of Grand Goâve located 45 km west-southwest of Port-au-Prince and at Jacmel on Haiti’s south coast. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed on Hispaniola and tsunami runup of more than 1 m was still observed at Pedernales in the Dominican Republic. Jacmel, which is near the center of the south coast, represents an unfortunate example of a village and harbor that was located for protection from storm waves but is vulnerable to tsunami waves with runup doubling from the entrance to the head of the bay. Inundation and damage was limited to less than 100 m inland at both Jacmel and Petit Paradis. Differences in wave period were documented between the tsunami waves at Petit Paradis and Jacmel. The Petit Paradis tsunami is attributed to a coastal submarine landslide

  5. Leading Wave Amplitude of a Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanoglu, U.

    2015-12-01

    Okal and Synolakis (EGU General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts-Vol. 17-7622) recently discussed that why the maximum amplitude of a tsunami might not occur for the first wave. Okal and Synolakis list observations from 2011 Japan tsunami, which reached to Papeete, Tahiti with a fourth wave being largest and 72 min later after the first wave; 1960 Chilean tsunami reached Hilo, Hawaii with a maximum wave arriving 1 hour later with a height of 5m, first wave being only 1.2m. Largest later waves is a problem not only for local authorities both in terms of warning to the public and rescue efforts but also mislead the public thinking that it is safe to return shoreline or evacuated site after arrival of the first wave. Okal and Synolakis considered Hammack's (1972, Ph.D. Dissertation, Calif. Inst. Tech., 261 pp., Pasadena) linear dispersive analytical solution with a tsunami generation through an uplifting of a circular plug on the ocean floor. They performed parametric study for the radius of the plug and the depth of the ocean since these are the independent scaling lengths in the problem. They identified transition distance, as the second wave being larger, regarding the parameters of the problem. Here, we extend their analysis to an initial wave field with a finite crest length and, in addition, to a most common tsunami initial wave form of N-wave as presented by Tadepalli and Synolakis (1994, Proc. R. Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 445, 99-112). We compare our results with non-dispersive linear shallow water wave results as presented by Kanoglu et al. (2013, Proc. R. Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 469, 20130015), investigating focusing feature. We discuss the results both in terms of leading wave amplitude and tsunami focusing. Acknowledgment: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk

  6. Unusually large tsunamis frequent a currently creeping part of the Aleutian megathrust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witter, Robert C.; Carver, G.A.; Briggs, Richard; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; Koehler, R.D.; La Selle, SeanPaul M.; Bender, Adrian M.; Engelhart, S.E.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Hill, Troy D.

    2016-01-01

    Current models used to assess earthquake and tsunami hazards are inadequate where creep dominates a subduction megathrust. Here we report geological evidence for large tsunamis, occurring on average every 300–340 years, near the source areas of the 1946 and 1957 Aleutian tsunamis. These areas bookend a postulated seismic gap over 200 km long where modern geodetic measurements indicate that the megathrust is currently creeping. At Sedanka Island, evidence for large tsunamis includes six sand sheets that blanket a lowland facing the Pacific Ocean, rise to 15 m above mean sea level, contain marine diatoms, cap terraces, adjoin evidence for scour, and date from the past 1700 years. The youngest sheet, and modern drift logs found as far as 800 m inland and >18 m elevation, likely record the 1957 tsunami. Modern creep on the megathrust coexists with previously unrecognized tsunami sources along this part of the Aleutian Subduction Zone.

  7. Probability-Based Design Criteria of the ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects Provisions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chock, G.

    2013-12-01

    Mitigation of tsunami risk requires a combination of emergency preparedness for evacuation in addition to providing structural resilience of critical facilities, infrastructure, and key resources necessary for immediate response and economic and social recovery. Critical facilities would include emergency response, medical, tsunami refuges and shelters, ports and harbors, lifelines, transportation, telecommunications, power, financial institutions, and major industrial/commercial facilities. The Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee of the ASCE/SEI 7 Standards Committee is developing a proposed new Chapter 6 - Tsunami Loads and Effects for the 2016 edition of the ASCE 7 Standard. ASCE 7 provides the minimum design loads and requirements for structures subject to building codes such as the International Building Code utilized in the USA. In this paper we will provide a review emphasizing the intent of these new code provisions and explain the design methodology. The ASCE 7 provisions for Tsunami Loads and Effects enables a set of analysis and design methodologies that are consistent with performance-based engineering based on probabilistic criteria. . The ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects chapter will be initially applicable only to the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. Ground shaking effects and subsidence from a preceding local offshore Maximum Considered Earthquake will also be considered prior to tsunami arrival for Alaska and states in the Pacific Northwest regions governed by nearby offshore subduction earthquakes. For national tsunami design provisions to achieve a consistent reliability standard of structural performance for community resilience, a new generation of tsunami inundation hazard maps for design is required. The lesson of recent tsunami is that historical records alone do not provide a sufficient measure of the potential heights of future tsunamis. Engineering design must consider the occurrence of events greater than

  8. Paleo-tsunami history along the northern Japan Trench: evidence from Noda Village, northern Sanriku coast, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Taiga; Goto, Kazuhisa; Nishimura, Yuichi; Watanabe, Masashi; Iijima, Yasutaka; Sugawara, Daisuke

    2017-12-01

    Throughout history, large tsunamis have frequently affected the Sanriku area of the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region, Japan, which faces the Japan Trench. Although a few studies have examined paleo-tsunami deposits along the Sanriku coast, additional studies of paleo-earthquakes and tsunamis are needed to improve our knowledge of the timing, recurrence interval, and size of historical and pre-historic tsunamis. At Noda Village, in Iwate Prefecture on the northern Sanriku coast, we found at least four distinct gravelly sand layers based on correlation and chronological data. Sedimentary features such as grain size and thickness suggest that extreme waves from the sea formed these layers. Numerical modeling of storm waves further confirmed that even extremely large storm waves cannot account for the distribution of the gravelly sand layers, suggesting that these deposits are highly likely to have formed by tsunami waves. The numerical method of storm waves can be useful to identify sand layers as tsunami deposits if the deposits are observed far inland or at high elevations. The depositional age of the youngest tsunami deposit is consistent with the AD 869 Jogan earthquake tsunami, a possible predecessor of the AD 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. If this is the case, then the study site currently defines the possible northern extent of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami deposit, which is an important step in improving the tsunami source model of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami. Our results suggest that four large tsunamis struck the Noda site between 1100 and 2700 cal BP. The local tsunami sizes are comparable to the AD 2011 and AD 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunamis, considering the landward extent of each tsunami deposit.

  9. Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Larreynaga, J.; González, M.; Castro, M.; Gavidia, F.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; González-Riancho, P.; Carreño, E.

    2013-11-01

    El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences-finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results

  10. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  11. Tsunami engineering study in India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    ronmental Laboratory at NOAA, USA has the tsunami - research program ( http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/). Th e t sunami research group is part of the Civi l Engineering Department at the Universit y of Southern California where undergra - duate... the engineering point of view. The Tsunami Engineering Labor a tory at the graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku Unive r sit y (http://www.tsunami.civil.tohoku.a c.jp/ hokusai2/main/eng/index.html) offers r e- se arch programmes on tsunami. The Uni - versity...

  12. Tides and tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zetler, B. D.

    1972-01-01

    Although tides and tsunamis are both shallow water waves, it does not follow that they are equally amenable to an observational program using an orbiting altimeter on a satellite. A numerical feasibility investigation using a hypothetical satellite orbit, real tide observations, and sequentially increased levels of white noise has been conducted to study the degradation of the tidal harmonic constants caused by adding noise to the tide data. Tsunami waves, possibly a foot high and one hundred miles long, must be measured in individual orbits, thus requiring high relative resolution.

  13. Proposal of evaluation method of tsunami wave pressure using 2D depth-integrated flow simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arimitsu, Tsuyoshi; Ooe, Kazuya; Kawasaki, Koji

    2012-01-01

    To design and construct land structures resistive to tsunami force, it is most essential to evaluate tsunami pressure quantitatively. The existing hydrostatic formula, in general, tended to underestimate tsunami wave pressure under the condition of inundation flow with large Froude number. Estimation method of tsunami pressure acting on a land structure was proposed using inundation depth and horizontal velocity at the front of the structure, which were calculated employing a 2D depth-integrated flow model based on the unstructured grid system. The comparison between the numerical and experimental results revealed that the proposed method could reasonably reproduce the vertical distribution of the maximum tsunami pressure as well as the time variation of the tsunami pressure exerting on the structure. (author)

  14. Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2012-01-01

    Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

  15. Reconstruction of far-field tsunami amplitude distributions from earthquake sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    The probability distribution of far-field tsunami amplitudes is explained in relation to the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones. Tsunami amplitude distributions at tide gauge stations follow a similar functional form, well described by a tapered Pareto distribution that is parameterized by a power-law exponent and a corner amplitude. Distribution parameters are first established for eight tide gauge stations in the Pacific, using maximum likelihood estimation. A procedure is then developed to reconstruct the tsunami amplitude distribution that consists of four steps: (1) define the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones; (2) establish a source-station scaling relation from regression analysis; (3) transform the seismic moment distribution to a tsunami amplitude distribution for each subduction zone; and (4) mix the transformed distribution for all subduction zones to an aggregate tsunami amplitude distribution specific to the tide gauge station. The tsunami amplitude distribution is adequately reconstructed for four tide gauge stations using globally constant seismic moment distribution parameters established in previous studies. In comparisons to empirical tsunami amplitude distributions from maximum likelihood estimation, the reconstructed distributions consistently exhibit higher corner amplitude values, implying that in most cases, the empirical catalogs are too short to include the largest amplitudes. Because the reconstructed distribution is based on a catalog of earthquakes that is much larger than the tsunami catalog, it is less susceptible to the effects of record-breaking events and more indicative of the actual distribution of tsunami amplitudes.

  16. On the moroccan tsunami catalogue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Kaabouben

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available A primary tool for regional tsunami hazard assessment is a reliable historical and instrumental catalogue of events. Morocco by its geographical situation, with two marine sides, stretching along the Atlantic coast to the west and along the Mediterranean coast to the north, is the country of Western Africa most exposed to the risk of tsunamis. Previous information on tsunami events affecting Morocco are included in the Iberian and/or the Mediterranean lists of tsunami events, as it is the case of the European GITEC Tsunami Catalogue, but there is a need to organize this information in a dataset and to assess the likelihood of claimed historical tsunamis in Morocco. Due to the fact that Moroccan sources are scarce, this compilation rely on historical documentation from neighbouring countries (Portugal and Spain and so the compatibility between the new tsunami catalogue presented here and those that correspond to the same source areas is also discussed.

  17. Physical Modeling of Landslide Generated Tsunamis and the 50th Anniversary of the Vajont Dam Disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, Brian C.; Mohammed, Fahad; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2013-04-01

    The Vajont river is an affluent of the Piave River located in the Dolomite Alps of the Veneto Region, about 100km north of Venice. A 265.5 m high double curved arch dam was built across a V-shaped gorge creating a reservoir with a maximum storage capacity of 0.169 km3. A maximum water depth of 250 m was reached by early September 1963 during the third filling attempt of the reservoir, but as creeping on the southern flank increased the third reservoir draw down was initiated. By October 9, 1963 the water depth was lowered to 240m as the southern flank of Vajont reservoir catastrophically collapsed on a length of more than 2km. Collapse occurred during reservoir drawdown in a final attempt to reduce flank creeping and the reservoir was only about two-thirds full. The partially submerged rockslide with a volume of 0.24 km3 penetrated into the reservoir at velocities up to 30 m/s. The wave runup in direct prolongation of slide axis reached the lowest houses of Casso 270m above reservoir level before impact corresponding to 245m above dam crest (Müller, 1964). The rockslide deposit came within 50m of the left abutment and towers up to 140m above the dam crest. The lateral spreading of the surge overtopped the dam crest by more than 100m. The thin arch dam withstood the overtopping and sustained no damage to the structural shell and the abutments. The flood wave dropped more than 500m down the Vajont gorge and into the Piave Valley causing utter destruction to the villages of Longarone, Pirago, Villanova, Rivalta and Fae. More than 2000 persons perished. The Vajont disaster highlights an extreme landslide tsunami event in the narrowly confined water body of a reservoir. Landslide tsunami hazards exist even in areas not exposed to tectonic tsunamis. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was

  18. Tsunami Forecasting: The 10 August 2009 Andaman tsunami Demonstrates Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, Vasily; Moore, Christopher; Uslu, Burak; Kanoglu, Utku

    2010-05-01

    The 10 August 2009 Andaman non-destructive tsunami in the Indian Ocean demonstrated advances in creating a tsunami-resilient global society. Following the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) developed an interface for its validated and verified tsunami numerical model Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST). MOST has been benchmarked substantially through analytical solutions, experimental results and field measurements (Synolakis et al., 2008). MOST and its interface the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) are distributed through extensive capacity-building sessions for the Indian Ocean nations using UNESCO/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), AusAID, and USAID funding. Over one hundred-sixty scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. During the 10 August 2009 Andaman tsunami event, NCTR scientists exercised the forecast system in research mode using the first generation inundation models developed during ComMIT trainings. Assimilating key data from a Kingdom of Thailand tsunameter, coastal tsunami amplitudes were predicted in Indonesia, Thailand, and India coastlines, before the first tsunami arrival, using models developed by ComMIT trainees. Since its first test in 2003, one more time, NCTR's forecasting methodology proved the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models (Wei et al., 2008 and Titov, 2009). The 2009 Andaman tsunami demonstrated that operational tsunami forecasting tools are now available and coupled with inundation mapping tools can be effective and can reduce false alarms. International collaboration is required to fully utilize this technology's potential. Enhanced educational efforts both at

  19. Tsunamigenic Ratio of the Pacific Ocean earthquakes and a proposal for a Tsunami Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Suppasri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pacific Ocean is the location where two-thirds of tsunamis have occurred, resulting in a great number of casualties. Once information on an earthquake has been issued, it is important to understand if there is a tsunami generation risk in relation with a specific earthquake magnitude or focal depth. This study proposes a Tsunamigenic Ratio (TR that is defined as the ratio between the number of earthquake-generated tsunamis and the total number of earthquakes. Earthquake and tsunami data used in this study were selected from a database containing tsunamigenic earthquakes from prior 1900 to 2011. The TR is calculated from earthquake events with a magnitude greater than 5.0, a focal depth shallower than 200 km and a sea depth less than 7 km. The results suggest that a great earthquake magnitude and a shallow focal depth have a high potential to generate tsunamis with a large tsunami height. The average TR in the Pacific Ocean is 0.4, whereas the TR for specific regions of the Pacific Ocean varies from 0.3 to 0.7. The TR calculated for each region shows the relationship between three influential parameters: earthquake magnitude, focal depth and sea depth. The three parameters were combined and proposed as a dimensionless parameter called the Tsunami Index (TI. TI can express better relationship with the TR and with maximum tsunami height, while the three parameters mentioned above cannot. The results show that recent submarine earthquakes had a higher potential to generate a tsunami with a larger tsunami height than during the last century. A tsunami is definitely generated if the TI is larger than 7.0. The proposed TR and TI will help ascertain the tsunami generation risk of each earthquake event based on a statistical analysis of the historical data and could be an important decision support tool during the early tsunami warning stage.

  20. Impacts of tides on tsunami propagation due to potential Nankai Trough earthquakes in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Han Soo; Shimoyama, Tomohisa; Popinet, Stéphane

    2015-10-01

    The impacts of tides on extreme tsunami propagation due to potential Nankai Trough earthquakes in the Seto Inland Sea (SIS), Japan, are investigated through numerical experiments. Tsunami experiments are conducted based on five scenarios that consider tides at four different phases, such as flood, high, ebb, and low tides. The probes that were selected arbitrarily in the Bungo and Kii Channels show less significant effects of tides on tsunami heights and the arrival times of the first waves than those that experience large tidal ranges in inner basins and bays of the SIS. For instance, the maximum tsunami height and the arrival time at Toyomaesi differ by more than 0.5 m and nearly 1 h, respectively, depending on the tidal phase. The uncertainties defined in terms of calculated maximum tsunami heights due to tides illustrate that the calculated maximum tsunami heights in the inner SIS with standing tides have much larger uncertainties than those of two channels with propagating tides. Particularly in Harima Nada, the uncertainties due to the impacts of tides are greater than 50% of the tsunami heights without tidal interaction. The results recommend simulate tsunamis together with tides in shallow water environments to reduce the uncertainties involved with tsunami modeling and predictions for tsunami hazards preparedness. This article was corrected on 26 OCT 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  1. Alternative Tsunami Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, A.; Lyatskaya, I.

    2009-01-01

    The interesting papers by Margaritondo (2005 "Eur. J. Phys." 26 401) and by Helene and Yamashita (2006 "Eur. J. Phys." 27 855) analysed the great Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 using a simple one-dimensional canal wave model, which was appropriate for undergraduate students in physics and related fields of discipline. In this paper, two additional,…

  2. The 1946 Unimak Tsunami Earthquake Area: revised tectonic structure in reprocessed seismic images and a suspect near field tsunami source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, John J.; von Huene, Roland E.; Ryan, Holly F.

    2014-01-01

    In 1946 at Unimak Pass, Alaska, a tsunami destroyed the lighthouse at Scotch Cap, Unimak Island, took 159 lives on the Hawaiian Islands, damaged island coastal facilities across the south Pacific, and destroyed a hut in Antarctica. The tsunami magnitude of 9.3 is comparable to the magnitude 9.1 tsunami that devastated the Tohoku coast of Japan in 2011. Both causative earthquake epicenters occurred in shallow reaches of the subduction zone. Contractile tectonism along the Alaska margin presumably generated the far-field tsunami by producing a seafloor elevation change. However, the Scotch Cap lighthouse was destroyed by a near-field tsunami that was probably generated by a coeval large undersea landslide, yet bathymetric surveys showed no fresh large landslide scar. We investigated this problem by reprocessing five seismic lines, presented here as high-resolution graphic images, both uninterpreted and interpreted, and available for the reader to download. In addition, the processed seismic data for each line are available for download as seismic industry-standard SEG-Y files. One line, processed through prestack depth migration, crosses a 10 × 15 kilometer and 800-meter-high hill presumed previously to be basement, but that instead is composed of stratified rock superimposed on the slope sediment. This image and multibeam bathymetry illustrate a slide block that could have sourced the 1946 near-field tsunami because it is positioned within a distance determined by the time between earthquake shaking and the tsunami arrival at Scotch Cap and is consistent with the local extent of high runup of 42 meters along the adjacent Alaskan coast. The Unimak/Scotch Cap margin is structurally similar to the 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic margin where a large landslide at the trench, coeval with the Tohoku earthquake, has been documented. Further study can improve our understanding of tsunami sources along Alaska’s erosional margins.

  3. NOAA/WDC Global Tsunami Deposits Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Discover where, when and how severely tsunamis affected Earth in geologic history. Information regarding Tsunami Deposits and Proxies for Tsunami Events complements...

  4. Identifying the role of initial wave parameters on tsunami focusing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydın, Baran

    2018-04-01

    Unexpected local tsunami amplification, which is referred to as tsunami focusing, is attributed to two different mechanisms: bathymetric features of the ocean bottom such as underwater ridges and dipolar shape of the initial wave itself. In this study, we characterize the latter; that is, we explore how amplitude and location of the focusing point vary with certain geometric parameters of the initial wave such as its steepness and crest length. Our results reveal two important features of tsunami focusing: for mild waves maximum wave amplitude increases significantly with transverse length of wave crest, while location of the focusing point is almost invariant. For steep waves, on the other hand, increasing crest length dislocates focusing point significantly, while it causes a rather small increase in wave maximum.

  5. When is a Tsunami a Mega-Tsunami?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J. R.; Terry, J. P.; Goto, K.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami is commonly called a mega-tsunami, and this attribute has also been linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. However, since this term was first coined in the early 1990's there have been very few attempts to define it. As such it has been applied in a rather arbitrary fashion to a number of tsunami characteristics, such as wave height or amplitude at both the source and at distant locations, run-up height, geographical extent and impact. The first use of the term is related to a tsunami generated by a large bolide impact and indeed it seems entirely appropriate that the term should be used for such rare events on geological timescales. However, probably as a result of media-driven hyperbole, scientists have used this term at least twice in the last decade, which is hardly a significant portion of the geological timescale. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that these recent unexpectedly large events do not fall in the category of mega-tsunami but into a category of exceptional events within historical experience and local perspective. The use of the term mega-tsunami over the past 14 years is discussed and a definition is provided that marks the relative uniqueness of these events and a new term, appropriately Japanese in origin, namely that of souteigai-tsunami, is proposed. Examples of these tsunamis will be provided.

  6. Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Kontar, Y.A.; Santiago-Fandiño, V.; Takahashi, T.

    2014-01-01

    California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

  7. Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk

  8. Study on tsunami due to offshore earthquakes for Korea coast. Literature survey and numerical simulation on earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea and the East China Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuyama, Masafumi; Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Inoue, Daiei; Choi, Weon-Hack; Kang, Keum-Seok

    2008-01-01

    In Korea, there has been a concern on tsumami risks for the Nuclear Power Plants since the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu earthquake tsunami. The maximum run-up height reached 4 m to north of the Ulchin nuclear power plant site. The east coast of Korea was also attacked by a few meters high tsunami generated by the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake. Both source areas of them were in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea, which remains another tsunami potential. Therefore it is necessary to study tsunami risks for coast of Korea by means of geological investigation and numerical simulation. Historical records of earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea were re-compiled to evaluate tsunami potential. A database of marine active faults in the Japan Sea was compiled to decide a regional potential of tsunami. Many developed reverse faults are found in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea. The authors have found no historical earthquake in the East China Sea which caused tunami observed at coast of Korea. Therefore five fault models were determined on the basis of the analysis results of historical records and recent research results of fault parameter and tunami. Tsunami heights were estimated by numerical simulation of nonlinear dispersion wave theory. The results of the simulations indicate that the tsunami heights in these cases are less than 0.25 m along the coast of Korea, and the tsunami risk by these assumed faults does not lead to severe impact. It is concluded that tsunami occurred in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea leads the most significant impact to Korea consequently. (author)

  9. Evaluation of Tsunami-HySEA for tsunami forecasting at selected locations in U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Ortega, S.; Castro, M. J.; de la Asuncion, M.; Arcas, D.

    2017-12-01

    The GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA model (Macias, J. et al., Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1-37, 2017, Lynett, P. et al., Ocean modeling, 114, 2017) is used to test four tsunami events: the January, 13, 2007 earthquake in Kuril islands (Mw 8.1), the September, 29, 2009 earthquake in Samoa (Mw 8.3), the February, 27, 2010 earthquake in Chile (Mw 9.8) and the March, 11, 2011 earthquake in Tohoku (Mw 9.0). Initial conditions have been provided by NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) obtained from DART inversion results. All simulations have been performed using a global 4 arc-min grid of the Ocean Pacific and three nested-meshes levels around the selected locations. Wave amplitudes time series have been computed at selected tide gauges located at each location and maximum amplitudes compared with both MOST model results and observations where they are available. In addition, inundation also has been computed at selected U.S. locations for the 2011 Tohoku and 2009 Samoa events under the assumption of a steady mean high water level. Finally, computational time is also evaluated in order to study the operational capabilities of Tsunami-HySEA for these kind of events. Ackowledgements: This work has been funded by WE133R16SE1418 contract between PMEL (NOAA) and the Universidad de Málaga (Spain).

  10. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Catalogues with Application to Tsunamigenic Regions in the Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smit, Ansie; Kijko, Andrzej; Stein, Alfred

    2017-08-01

    The paper presents a new method for empirical assessment of tsunami recurrence parameters, namely the mean tsunami activity rate λT, the Soloviev-Imamura frequency-magnitude power law bT-value, and the coastline-characteristic, maximum possible tsunami intensity i_{ max }. The three coastline-characteristic recurrence parameters are estimated locally by maximum likelihood techniques using only tsunami event catalogues. The method provides for incompleteness of the tsunami catalogue, uncertainty in the tsunami intensity determination, and uncertainty associated with the parameters in the applied tsunami occurrence models. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty is introduced in the tsunami models by means of the use of mixture distributions. Both the mean tsunami activity rate λT of the Poisson occurrence model, and the bT-value of the Soloviev-Imamura frequency-intensity power law are random variables. The proposed procedure was applied to estimate the probabilities of exceedance and return periods for tsunamis in the tsunamigenic regions of Japan, Kuril-Kamchatka, and South America.

  11. TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES PART 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This is Part 3 of Tsunami Information Sources published by Robert L. Wiegel, as Technical Report UCB/HEL 2006-3 of the Hydraulic Engineering Laboratory of the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering of the University of California at Berkeley. Part 3 is published in "SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS" -with the author's permission -so that it can receive wider distribution and use by the Tsunami Scientific Community.

  12. Modelling of Charles Darwin's tsunami reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great 1835 earthquake. He described his impressions and results of the earthquake-induced natural catastrophe in The Voyage of the Beagle. His description of the tsunami could easily be read as a report from Indonesia or Sri Lanka, after the catastrophic tsunami of 26 December 2004. In particular, Darwin emphasised the dependence of earthquake-induced waves on a form of the coast and the coastal depth: ‘… Talcuhano and Callao are situated at the head of great shoaling bays, and they have always suffered from this phenomenon; whereas, the town of Valparaiso, which is seated close on the border of a profound ocean... has never been overwhelmed by one of these terrific deluges…' . He reports also, that ‘… the whole body of the sea retires from the coast, and then returns in great waves of overwhelming force ...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). The coastal evolution of a tsunami was analytically studied in many publications (see, for example, Synolakis, C.E., Bernard, E.N., 2006. Philos. Trans. R. Soc., Ser. A, 364, 2231-2265; Tinti, S., Tonini, R. 205. J.Fluid Mech., 535, 11-21). However, the Darwin's reports and the influence of the coastal depth on the formation and the evolution of the steep front and the profile of tsunami did not practically discuss. Recently, a mathematical theory of these phenomena was presented in researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474. The theory describes the waves which are excited due to nonlinear effects within a shallow coastal zone. The tsunami elevation is described by two components: . Here is the linear (prime) component. It describes the wave coming from the deep ocean. is the nonlinear component. This component may become very important near the coastal line. After that the theory of the shallow waves is used. This theory yields the linear equation for and the weakly

  13. A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Meng, L.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time

  14. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E.

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  15. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E. [Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Civil Engineering Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

    2012-05-22

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  16. Inundation mapping – a study based on December 2004 Tsunami Hazard along Chennai coast, Southeast India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Satheesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Tsunami impact study has been undertaken along Chennai coast starting from Pulicat to Kovalam. The study area Chennai coast is mainly devoted to prepare large scale action plan maps on tsunami inundation incorporating land use details derived from satellite data along with cadastral data using a GIS tool. Under tsunami inundation mapping along Chennai coast an integrated approach was adopted to prepare thematic maps on land use/land cover and coastal geomorphology using multispectral remote sensing data. The RTK dGPS instruments are used to collect elevation contour data at 0.5 m intervals for the Chennai coast. The GIS tool has been used to incorporate the elevation data, tsunami inundation markings obtained immediately after tsunami and thematic maps derived from remote sensing data. The outcome of this study provides an important clue on variations in tsunami inundation along Chennai coast, which is mainly controlled by local geomorphologic set-up, coastal zone elevation including coastal erosion protection measures and near shore bathymetry. This study highlights the information regarding most vulnerable areas of tsunami and also provides indication to demarcate suitable sites for rehabilitation.

  17. Coastal Amplification Laws for the French Tsunami Warning Center: Numerical Modeling and Fast Estimate of Tsunami Wave Heights Along the French Riviera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.

    2018-04-01

    Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

  18. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  19. Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Hock Lye, E-mail: kohhl@ucsiuniversity.edu.my [Office of Deputy Vice Chancellor for Research and Post Graduate Studies, UCSI University, Jalan Menara Gading, 56000 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Teh, Su Yean, E-mail: syteh@usm.my [School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang (Malaysia); Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che [Malaysian Meteorological Department, MOSTI, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    2014-10-24

    The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.

  20. Physical Modeling of Tsunamis Generated By 3D Deformable Landslides in Various Scenarios From Fjords to Conical Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1 elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are

  1. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  2. A Reverse Tracking Method to Analyze the 1867 Keelung Tsunami Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C.; Wu, T.; Tsai, Y.; KO, L.; Chuang, M.

    2013-12-01

    event was most likely triggered by a near-field submarine landslide just outside the Keelung harbor. The potential tsunami sources from Mien-Hwa Canyon and submarine volcanos should also be noted. The result of this study is important not only for densely populated cities in northern Taiwan, but also for the three nuclear power plants nearby. The detailed scenario results will be presented in the full paper. Fig. 1. The map of Reverse Tracking Method (RTM) in northern Taiwan. Black dots show the relative location between Keelung city, Jinshan and Patouzu areas. Red dots present the nuclear power plants (NPP1, NPP2, and NPP4). Green dots present the sedimentary evidence discovered on Hoping Island. Color indicates the maximum flux of tsunami propagation.

  3. Physical Observations of the Tsunami during the September 8th 2017 Tehuantepec, Mexico Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Corona, N.; Ruiz-Angulo, A.; Melgar, D.; Zavala-Hidalgo, J.

    2017-12-01

    The September 8th 2017, Mw8.2 earthquake offshore Chiapas, Mexico, is the largest earthquake recorded history in Chiapas since 1902. It caused damage in the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco; it had more than 100 fatalities, over 1.5 million people were affected, and 41,000 homes were damaged in the state of Chiapas alone. This earthquake, a deep intraplate event on a normal fault on the oceanic subducting plate, generated a tsunami recorded at several tide gauge stations in Mexico and on the Pacific Ocean. Here we report the physical effects of the tsunami on the Chiapas coast and analyze the societal implications of this tsunami on the basis of our field observations. Tide gauge data indicate 11.3 and 8.2 cm of coastal subsidence at Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas stations. The associated tsunami waves were recorded first at Salina Cruz tide gauge station at 5:13 (GMT). We covered ground observations along 41 km of the coast of Chiapas, encompassing the sites with the highest projected wave heights based on the preliminary tsunami model (maximum tsunami amplitudes between -94.5 and -93.0 W). Runup and inundation distances were measured with an RTK GPS and using a Sokkia B40 level along 8 sites. We corrected runup data with estimated astronomical tide levels at the time of the tsunami. The tsunami occurred at low tide. The maximum runup was 3 m at Boca del Cielo, and maximum inundation distance was 190 m in Puerto Arista, corresponding to the coast directly opposite the epicenter and in the central sector of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In general, our field data agree with the predicted results from the preliminary tsunami model. Tsunami scour and erosion was evident on the Chiapas coast. Tsunami deposits, mainly sand, reached up to 32 cm thickness thinning landwards up to 172 m distance. Even though the Mexican tsunami early warning system (CAT) issued several warnings, the tsunami arrival struck the Chiapas coast prior to the arrival of official warnings to the

  4. Tsunami Source Modeling of the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima, South of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.; Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.

    2017-12-01

    An abnormal earthquake occurred at a submarine volcano named Smith Caldera, near Torishima Island on the Izu-Bonin arc, on May 2, 2015. The earthquake, which hereafter we call "the 2015 Torishima earthquake," has a CLVD-type focal mechanism with a moderate seismic magnitude (M5.7) but generated larger tsunami waves with an observed maximum height of 50 cm at Hachijo Island [JMA, 2015], so that the earthquake can be regarded as a "tsunami earthquake." In the region, similar tsunami earthquakes were observed in 1984, 1996 and 2006, but their physical mechanisms are still not well understood. Tsunami waves generated by the 2015 earthquake were recorded by an array of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, 100 km northeastern away from the epicenter. The waves initiated with a small downward signal of 0.1 cm and reached peak amplitude (1.5-2.0 cm) of leading upward signals followed by continuous oscillations [Fukao et al., 2016]. For modeling its tsunami source, or sea-surface displacement, we perform tsunami waveform simulations, and compare synthetic and observed waveforms at the OBP gauges. The linear Boussinesq equations are adapted with the tsunami simulation code, JAGURS [Baba et al., 2015]. We first assume a Gaussian-shaped sea-surface uplift of 1.0 m with a source size comparable to Smith Caldera, 6-7 km in diameter. By shifting source location around the caldera, we found the uplift is probably located within the caldera rim, as suggested by Sandanbata et al. [2016]. However, synthetic waves show no initial downward signal that was observed at the OBP gauges. Hence, we add a ring of subsidence surrounding the main uplift, and examine sizes and amplitudes of the main uplift and the subsidence ring. As a result, the model of a main uplift of around 1.0 m with a radius of 4 km surrounded by a ring of small subsidence shows good agreement of synthetic and observed waveforms. The results yield two implications for the deformation process that help us to understanding

  5. Making Multi-Level Tsunami Evacuation Playbooks Operational in California and Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R. I.; Peterson, D.; Fryer, G. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Popham, C.; Richards, K.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2016-12-01

    In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile, 2011 Japan, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis in California and Hawaii, coastal emergency managers requested that state and federal tsunami programs investigate providing more detailed information about the flood potential and recommended evacuation for distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. Evacuation "Playbooks" for tsunamis of variable sizes and source locations have been developed for some communities in the two states, providing secondary options to an all or nothing approach for evacuation. Playbooks have been finalized for nearly 70% of the coastal communities in California, and have been drafted for evaluation by the communities of Honolulu and Hilo in Hawaii. A key component to determining a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami and making the Playbooks operational has been the development of the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the FASTER flood elevation value will be computed and used to select the appropriate minimum tsunami phase evacuation "Playbook" for use by the coastal communities. The states of California and Hawaii, the tsunami warning centers, and local weather service offices are working together to deliver recommendations on the appropriate evacuation Playbook plans for communities to use prior to the arrival of a distant-source tsunami. These partners are working closely with individual communities on developing conservative and consistent protocols on the use of the Playbooks. Playbooks help provide a scientifically-based, minimum response for small- to moderate-size tsunamis which could reduce the potential for over-evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people and save hundreds of millions of dollars in evacuation costs for communities and businesses.

  6. Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling Laboratories - From Concept to Proven Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allsop, W.; Chandler, I.; Rossetto, T.; McGovern, D.; Petrone, C.; Robinson, D.

    2016-12-01

    Before 2004, there was little public awareness around Indian Ocean coasts of the potential size and effects of tsunami. Even in 2011, the scale and extent of devastation by the Japan East Coast Tsunami was unexpected. There were very few engineering tools to assess onshore impacts of tsunami, so no agreement on robust methods to predict forces on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Modelling generally used substantial simplifications of either solitary waves (far too short durations) or dam break (unrealistic and/or uncontrolled wave forms).This presentation will describe research from EPI-centre, HYDRALAB IV, URBANWAVES and CRUST projects over the last 10 years that have developed and refined pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory. These unique devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example defences. They have reproduced full-duration tsunamis including the Mercator trace from 2004 at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models subjected to those tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences and pressures / forces on buildings. This presentation will describe how these pneumatic Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facility within which they operate, and will highlight research results from the three generations of Tsunami Simulator. Of direct relevance to engineers and modellers will be measurements of wave run-up levels and comparison with theoretical predictions. Recent measurements of forces on individual buildings have been generalized by separate experiments on buildings (up to 4 rows) which show that the greatest forces can act on the landward (not seaward) buildings. Continuing research in the 70m long 4m wide Fast Flow Facility on tsunami defence structures have also measured forces on buildings in the lee of a failed defence wall.

  7. Prediction of Tsunami Inundation in the City of Lisbon (portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, M.; Miranda, J.; Omira, R.; Catalao Fernandes, J.

    2010-12-01

    Lisbon city is located inside the estuary of Tagus river, 20 km away from the Atlantic ocean. The city suffered great damage from tsunamis and its downtown was flooded at least twice in 1531 and 1755. Since the installation of the tide-gage network, in the area, three tsunamis caused by submarine earthquakes, were recorded in November 1941, February 1969 and May 1975. The most destructive tsunamis listed along Tagus Estuary are the 26th January 1531, a local tsunami event restricted to the Tagus Estuary, and the well known 1st November 1755 transoceanic event, both following highly destructive earthquakes, which deeply affected Lisbon. The economic losses due to the impact of the 1755 tsunami in one of Europe’s 18t century main harbor and commercial fleets were enormous. Since then the Tagus estuary suffered strong morphologic changes manly due to dredging works, construction of commercial and industrial facilities and recreational docks, some of them already projected to preserve Lisbon. In this study we present preliminary inundation maps for the Tagus estuary area in the Lisbon County, for conditions similar to the 1755 tsunami event, but using present day bathymetric and topographic maps. Inundation modelling is made using non linear shallow water theory and the numerical code is based upon COMCOT code. Nested grids resolutions used in this study are 800 m, 200 m and 50 m, respectively. The inundation is discussed in terms of flow depth, run up height, maximum inundation area and current flow velocity. The effects of estuary modifications on tsunami propagation are also investigated.

  8. On The Source Of The 25 November 1941 - Atlantic Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, M. A.; Lisboa, F. B.; Miranda, J. M. A.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we analyze the tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic following the 25 November 1941 earthquake. The earthquake with a magnitude of 8.3, located on the Gloria Fault, was one of the largest strike slip events recorded. The Gloria fault is a 500 km long scarp in the North Atlantic Ocean between 19W and 24W known to be a segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary between Iberia and the Azores. Ten tide stations recorded the tsunami. Six in Portugal (mainland, Azores and Madeira Islands), two in Morocco, one in the United Kingdom and one in Spain (Tenerife-Canary Islands). The tsunami waves reached Azores and Madeira Islands less than one hour after the main shock. The tide station of Casablanca (in Morocco) recorded the maximum amplitude of 0.54 m. All amplitudes recorded are lower than 0.5 m but the tsunami reached Portugal mainland in high tide conditions where the sea flooded some streets We analyze the 25 November 1941 tsunami data using the tide-records in the coasts of Portugal, Spain, Morocco and UK to infer its source. The use of wavelet analysis to characterize the frequency content of the tide-records shows predominant periods of 9-13min e 18-22min. A preliminary location of the tsunami source location was obtained Backward Ray Tracing (BRT). The results of the BRT technique are compatible with the epicenter location of the earthquake. We compute empirical Green functions for the earthquake generation area, and use a linear shallow water inversion technique to compute the initial water displacement. The comparison between forward modeling with observations shows a fair agreement with available data. This work received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)"

  9. Kaitan antara karakteristik pantai Provinsi Sumatera Barat dengan potensi kerawanan tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yudhicara Yudhicara

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.17014/ijog.vol3no2.20084The coast of West Sumatera Province has two types of beaches: low lying sandy beach and steep rocky beach. Straight shoreline beaches at Padang beach until Air Bangis at the north and between Pasir Ganting and Salido beach at the south will have a potential tsunami height lower than bay shape beaches like at Kasai Bay, Kabung Bay, Batung Bay and Nibung Bay. A tsunami inundation will be further at a low lying area (low lying sandy beaches compared with a coastal area which has steep slope and high relief (steep rocky beaches. Gosong beach at Pariaman which has a steep angle of beach slope will have lower tsunami height compared with a low angle beach slope like at Sungai Beramas, Kasai, Kabung, Batung and Nibung bays which have a beach slope about 3° to 5°. The maximum tsunami inundation is assumed to be located at Pasaman and Pasir Pariaman Sub-regencies, while the maximum tsunami height is assumed to be located at the middle of mapped area which has a bay shape. Tsunami is assumed to be arrived early at the southern most of mapped area or close to Muko-muko (Bengkulu. The maximum height difference from sea level was found at Tabai - Pariaman about 5.394 m, while the minimum height difference was found at Carocok Anau about 1.821 m. The horizontal distance measured from the nearest building from the shoreline is about 119 to 173 m. The worst case of tsunami modeling assumed that the maximum tsunami height will be about 32 m and used for reference to make tsunami prone zonation, such as high, moderate and low prone area.    

  10. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  11. Tsunami hazard assessment along Diba-Oman and Diba-Al-Emirates coasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El-Hussain Issa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Tsunami is among the most devastating natural hazards phenomenon responsible for significant loss of life and property throughout history. The Sultanate of Oman and United Arab Emirates are among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to one confirmed tsunami in November 27, 1945 due to an Mw 8.1 earthquake in Makran Subduction Zone. In this study, we present preliminary deterministic tsunami hazard assessment for the coasts of Diba Oman and Diba Al-Emirates, which are located on the western coast of the Oman Sea. The tsunami vulnerability of these cities increases due to the construction of many critical infrastructures and urban concentration along their coasts. Therefore, tsunami hazard assessment is necessary to mitigate the risk on the socio-economic system and sustainable developments. The major known source of tsunamis able to impact both coasts of Oman and United Arab Emirates is the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ which extends for approximately 900 km. The deterministic approach uses specific scenarios considering the maximum credible earthquakes occurring in the MSZ and computes the ensuing tsunami impact in the coasts of the study area. The maximum wave height graphs and inundation maps are obtained for tsunami scenarios caused by 8.8 earthquake magnitude in eastern MSZ and 8.2 magnitude from western MSZ. The Mw8.8 eastern MSZ causes a maximum inundation distance of 447 meters and a maximum flow depth of 1.37 meter. Maximum inundation distance larger than 420 meters occurs due to the Mw8.2 western MSZ scenario. For this scenario, numerical simulations show a maximum flow depth of about 2.34 meters.

  12. NOAA's Integrated Tsunami Database: Data for improved forecasts, warnings, research, and risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly

    2015-04-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center

  13. The effects of wind and rainfall on suspended sediment concentration related to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xinfeng; Tang Danling; Li Zizhen; Zhang Fengpan

    2009-01-01

    The effects of rainfall and wind speed on the dynamics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC), during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, were analyzed using spatial statistical models. The results showed a positive effect of wind speed on SSC, and inconsistent effects (positive and negative) of rainfall on SSC. The effects of wind speed and rainfall on SSC weakened immediately around the tsunami, indicating tsunami-caused floods and earthquake-induced shaking may have suddenly disturbed the ocean-atmosphere interaction processes, and thus weakened the effects of wind speed and rainfall on SSC. Wind speed and rainfall increased markedly, and reached their maximum values immediately after the tsunami week. Rainfall at this particular week exceeded twice the average for the same period over the previous 4 years. The tsunami-affected air-sea interactions may have increased both wind speed and rainfall immediately after the tsunami week, which directly lead to the variations in SSC.

  14. Comparison between the Coastal Impacts of Cyclone Nargis and the Indian Ocean Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Blount, C.

    2009-12-01

    On 26 December 2004 a great earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.3 occurred off the North tip of Sumatra, Indonesia. The Indian Ocean tsunami claimed 230,000 lives making it the deadliest in recorded history. Less than 4 years later tropical cyclone Nargis (Cat. 4) made landfall in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady delta on 2 May 2008 causing the worst natural disaster in Myanmar’s recorded history. Official death toll estimates exceed 138,000 fatalities making it the 7th deadliest cyclone ever recorded worldwide. The Bay of Bengal counts seven tropical cyclones with death tolls in excess of 100,000 striking India and Bangladesh in the past 425 years, which highlights the difference in return periods between extreme cyclones and tsunamis. Damage estimates at over $10 billion made Nargis the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in the Indian Ocean. Although the two natural disasters are completely different in their generation mechanisms they both share massive coastal inundations as primary damage and death cause. While the damage patterns exhibit similarities the forcing differs. The primary tsunami impact is dominated by the runup of a few main waves washing rapidly ashore and inducing high lateral forces. On the contrary the tropical cyclone storm surge damage is the result of numerous storm waves continuously hitting the flooded structures on the elevated storm tide level. While coastal vegetation such as mangroves may be effective at reducing superimposed storm waves they are limited at reducing storm surge. Unfortunately, mangroves have been significantly cut for charcoal and land use as rice paddies in Myanmar due to rapid population growth and economic reasons, thereby increasing coastal vulnerability and land loss due to erosion (Figure 1). The period of a storm surge is typically an order of magnitude longer than the period of a tsunami resulting in significantly larger inundation distances along coastal plains and river deltas. The storm surge of cyclone Nargis

  15. Far-field tsunami magnitude determined from ocean-bottom pressure gauge data around Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, T.; Hirata, K.; Kaneda, Y.

    2003-12-01

    \\hspace*{3mm}Tsunami magnitude is the most fundamental parameter to scale tsunamigenic earthquakes. According to Abe (1979), the tsunami magnitude, Mt, is empirically related to the crest to trough amplitude, H, of the far-field tsunami wave in meters (Mt = logH + 9.1). Here we investigate the far-field tsunami magnitude using ocean-bottom pressure gauge data. The recent ocean-bottom pressure measurements provide more precise tsunami data with a high signal-to-noise ratio. \\hspace*{3mm}Japan Marine Science and Technology Center is monitoring ocean bottom pressure fluctuations using two submarine cables of depths of 1500 - 2400 m. These geophysical observatory systems are located off Cape Muroto, Southwest Japan, and off Hokkaido, Northern Japan. The ocean-bottom pressure data recorded with the Muroto and Hokkaido systems have been collected continuously since March, 1997 and October, 1999, respectively. \\hspace*{3mm}Over the period from March 1997 to June 2003, we have observed four far-field tsunami signals, generated by earthquakes, on ocean-bottom pressure records. These far-field tsunamis were generated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea eq. (Mw 7.0), 1999 Vanuatu eq. (Mw 7.2), 2001 Peru eq. (Mw 8.4) and 2002 Papua New Guinea eq. (Mw 7.6). Maximum amplitude of about 30 mm was recorded by the tsunami from the 2001 Peru earthquake. \\hspace*{3mm}Direct application of the Abe's empirical relation to ocean-bottom pressure gauge data underestimates tsunami magnitudes by about an order of magnitude. This is because the Abe's empirical relation was derived only from tsunami amplitudes with coastal tide gauges where tsunami is amplified by the shoaling of topography and the reflection at the coastline. However, these effects do not work for offshore tsunami in deep oceans. In general, amplification due to shoaling near the coastline is governed by the Green's Law, in which the tsunami amplitude is proportional to h-1/4, where h is the water depth. Wave amplitude also is

  16. Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu

    2017-04-01

    Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other

  17. Tsunami vs Infragravity Surge: Statistics and Physical Character of Extreme Runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, P. J.; Montoya, L. H.

    2017-12-01

    Motivated by recent observations of energetic and impulsive infragravity (IG) flooding events - also known as sneaker waves - we will present recent work on the relative probabilities and dynamics of extreme flooding events from tsunamis and long period wind wave events. The discussion will be founded on videos and records of coastal flooding by both recent tsunamis and IG, such as those in the Philippines during Typhoon Haiyan. From these observations, it is evident that IG surges may approach the coast as breaking bores with periods of minutes; a very tsunami-like character. Numerical simulations will be used to estimate flow elevations and speeds from potential IG surges, and these will be compared with similar values from tsunamis, over a range of different beach profiles. We will examine the relative rareness of each type of flooding event, which for large values of IG runup is a particularly challenging topic. For example, for a given runup elevation or flooding speed, the related tsunami return period may be longer than that associated with IG, implying that deposit information associated with such elevations or speeds are more likely to be caused by IG. Our purpose is to provide a statistical and physical discriminant between tsunami and IG, such that in areas exposed to both, a proper interpretation of overland transport, deposition, and damage is possible.

  18. Community exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jamie L.; Jamieson, Matthew R.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2016-06-17

    Hawai‘i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future inundation has been described over the years using various historical events and scenarios. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in Hawai‘i, this study documents the variations among 91 coastal communities and 4 counties in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, residents, employees, community-support businesses, dependent-care facilities, public venues, and critical facilities in a composite extreme tsunami-inundation zone associated with two great Aleutian moment magnitude (Mw) 9.3 and 9.6 earthquake scenarios. These earthquake scenarios are considered to provide the maximum tsunami scenario for the Hawaiian Islands. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, the Hawai‘i extreme tsunami-inundation zone contains approximately 248,749 residents and 91,528 households (18 and 20 percent, respectively, of State totals). The residential population in tsunami-prone areas is racially diverse, with most residents identifying themselves as White (47 percent of the total exposed population), Asian (48 percent), or Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (29 percent), either alone or in combination with one or more other races (note that race categories do not sum to 100 percent because individuals were able to report multiple races in the 2010 U.S. Census). A total of 50,016 households are renter-occupied, making up 55 percent of total households in the extreme inundation zone. The extreme tsunami-inundation zone contains 18,693 businesses (37 percent of State totals) and 245,827 employees (42 percent of the State labor force). The employee population in the extreme tsunami-inundation zone is largely in the accommodation and food services and retail-trade sectors. Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the extreme tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous community-support businesses (for example, religious organizations

  19. Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Klavitter, John; Courtot, Karen

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%–100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands

  20. On The Computation Of The Best-fit Okada-type Tsunami Source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, J. M. A.; Luis, J. M. F.; Baptista, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    The forward simulation of earthquake-induced tsunamis usually assumes that the initial sea surface elevation mimics the co-seismic deformation of the ocean bottom described by a simple "Okada-type" source (rectangular fault with constant slip in a homogeneous elastic half space). This approach is highly effective, in particular in far-field conditions. With this assumption, and a given set of tsunami waveforms recorded by deep sea pressure sensors and (or) coastal tide stations it is possible to deduce the set of parameters of the Okada-type solution that best fits a set of sea level observations. To do this, we build a "space of possible tsunami sources-solution space". Each solution consists of a combination of parameters: earthquake magnitude, length, width, slip, depth and angles - strike, rake, and dip. To constrain the number of possible solutions we use the earthquake parameters defined by seismology and establish a range of possible values for each parameter. We select the "best Okada source" by comparison of the results of direct tsunami modeling using the solution space of tsunami sources. However, direct tsunami modeling is a time-consuming process for the whole solution space. To overcome this problem, we use a precomputed database of Empirical Green Functions to compute the tsunami waveforms resulting from unit water sources and search which one best matches the observations. In this study, we use as a test case the Solomon Islands tsunami of 6 February 2013 caused by a magnitude 8.0 earthquake. The "best Okada" source is the solution that best matches the tsunami recorded at six DART stations in the area. We discuss the differences between the initial seismic solution and the final one obtained from tsunami data This publication received funding of FCT-project UID/GEO/50019/2013-Instituto Dom Luiz.

  1. Numerical simulation of transoceanic propagation and run-up of tsunami

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Yong-Sik; Yoon Sung-Bum [Hanyang University, Seoul(Korea)

    2001-04-30

    The propagation and associated run-up process of tsunami are numerically investigated in this study. A transoceanic propagation model is first used to simulate the distant propagation of tsunamis. An inundation model is then employed to simulate the subsequent run-up process near coastline. A case study is done for the 1960 Chilean tsunami. A detailed maximum inundation map at Hilo Bay is obtained and compared with field observation and other numerical model, predictions. A very reasonable agreement is observed. (author). refs., tabs., figs.

  2. A plan for safety evaluation of tsunamis at the Uljin nuclear power plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H. K.; Lee, D. S.

    1999-01-01

    The sites of many nuclear and thermal power plants are located along the coast line to obtain necessary cooling water. Therefore, they are vulnerable to coastal disasters like tsunamis. The safety evaluation on tsunamis of the site of Uljin nuclear power plants was performed with the maximum potential earthquake magnitude and related fault parameters in 1986. But according to the results of recent research, the possibility was suggested that the earthquake which has bigger magnitude than was expected is likely to happen in the seismic gaps near Akita, Japan. Therefore, a plan for safety evaluation of tsunamis at the Uljin nuclear power plants was laid out

  3. Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

    2014-12-01

    The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

  4. Evaluation of the impact of 1983 east sea tsunami at the site of Ulchin nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H. K.; Lee, D. S.; Choi, S. H.

    2001-01-01

    In the past, we carried out the safety assessment study at the site of Ulchin NPP against tsunamis on the basis of maximum earthquake magnitude 7 3/4 and available tsunamigenic earthquake fault parameters. But, recently, based on the seismic gap theory some geologists and seismologists warned that the earthquakes with larger magnitude than was expected might occur in the East Sea region. And, the need of re-evaluation of safety is suggested. In this study, to investigate the applicability of a finite difference model, we simulated the 1983 East Sea Tsunami at the Imwon Harbor where the maximum run-up height of tsunami was observed. The general agreement was obtained in the viewpoint of maxium wave run-up height. Finally, we evaluated the rise and drop of sea water level at the site of Ulchin NPP and concluded that the site of Ulchin NPP is safe against tsunami of the same magnitude of 1983 East Sea Tsunami

  5. Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Raphaël

    2015-10-28

    Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

  6. TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES PART 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Tsunami Information Sources (Robert L. Wiegel, University of California, Berkeley, CA, UCB/HEL 2005-1, 14 December 2005, 115 pages, is available in printed format, and on a diskette. It is also available in electronic format at the Water Resources Center Archives, University of California, Berkeley, CA http:www.lib.berkeley.edu/WRCA/tsunamis.htmland in the International Journal of The Tsunami Society, Science of Tsunami Hazards (Vol. 24, No. 2, 2006, pp 58-171 at http://www.sthjournal.org/sth6.htm.This is Part 2 of the report. It has two components. They are: 1.(Sections A and B. Sources added since the first report, and corrections to a few listed in the first report. 2.(Sections C and D. References from both the first report and this report, listed in two categories:Section C. Planning and engineering design for tsunami mitigation/protection; adjustments to the hazard; damage to structures and infrastructureSection D. Tsunami propagation nearshore; induced oscillations; runup/inundation (flooding and drawdown.

  7. TSUNAMI DEPOSITS AT QUEEN’S BEACH, OAHU, HAWAII – INITIALRESULTS AND WAVE MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Barbara Keating

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Photographs taken immediately after the 1946 Aleutian Tsunami inundated Queen’s Beach, southeastern Oahu, show the major highway around the island was inundated and the road bed was destroyed. That road bed remains visible today, in an undeveloped coastline that shows like change in sedimentary deposits between 1946 and today (based on photographic evidence. Tsunami catalog records however indicate that the beach was repeatedly inundated by tsunami in 1946, 1952, 1957, and 1960. Tsunami runup was reported to have reached between 3 and 11 m elevation. Eyewitness accounts however indicate inundations of up to 20 m in Kealakipapa Valley (Makapu’u Lookout during 1946 and photographic evidence indicated inundation reached 9 m in 1957. The inundation of Kealakipapa Valley has been successfully modeled using a 10-m tsunami wave model.A comparison of the modern beach deposits to those near the remains of the destroyed highway demonstrate that the sedimentary deposits within the two areas have very different rock characteristics. We conclude the modern beach is dominated by the rounding of rocks (mostly coral by wave activity. However, in the area that has experienced prior tsunami inundations, the rocks are characterized by fracturing and a high component of basaltic material. We conclude the area near the destroyed highway reflects past tsunami inundations combined with inevitable anthropogenic alteration.

  8. Tsunami Source Inversion Using Tide Gauge and DART Tsunami Waveforms of the 2017 Mw8.2 Mexico Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adriano, Bruno; Fujii, Yushiro; Koshimura, Shunichi; Mas, Erick; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Estrada, Miguel

    2018-01-01

    On September 8, 2017 (UTC), a normal-fault earthquake occurred 87 km off the southeast coast of Mexico. This earthquake generated a tsunami that was recorded at coastal tide gauge and offshore buoy stations. First, we conducted a numerical tsunami simulation using a single-fault model to understand the tsunami characteristics near the rupture area, focusing on the nearby tide gauge stations. Second, the tsunami source of this event was estimated from inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at six coastal stations and three buoys located in the deep ocean. Using the aftershock distribution within 1 day following the main shock, the fault plane orientation had a northeast dip direction (strike = 320°, dip = 77°, and rake =-92°). The results of the tsunami waveform inversion revealed that the fault area was 240 km × 90 km in size with most of the largest slip occurring on the middle and deepest segments of the fault. The maximum slip was 6.03 m from a 30 × 30 km2 segment that was 64.82 km deep at the center of the fault area. The estimated slip distribution showed that the main asperity was at the center of the fault area. The second asperity with an average slip of 5.5 m was found on the northwest-most segments. The estimated slip distribution yielded a seismic moment of 2.9 × 10^{21} Nm (Mw = 8.24), which was calculated assuming an average rigidity of 7× 10^{10} N/m2.

  9. Coastal Impacts of the March 11th Tsunami in the Galapagos Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, P. J.; Weiss, R.; Renteria, W.

    2011-12-01

    On March 11, 2011 at 5:46:23 UTC (March 10 11:46:23 PM Local Time, Galapagos), the magnitude 9.0 Mw Great East Japan Earthquake occurred near the Tohoku region off the east coast of Japan. The purpose of this presentation is to provide the results of a tsunami field survey in the Galapagos Islands performed by an International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) with great assistance from INOCAR, the oceanographic service of the Ecuadorian Navy, and the Galapagos National Park. The Galapagos Islands are a volcanic chain composed of many islands of various sizes. The four largest islands are the focus of this survey, and are, from west to east, Isabela, Santiagio, Santa Cruz, and San Cristobal. Aside from approximately 10 sandy beaches that are open to tourists, all other shoreline locations are strictly off limits to anyone without a research permit. All access to the shoreline is coordinated through the Galapagos National Park, and any landing requires a chaperone, a Park Ranger. While a few of the visited areas in this survey were tourist sites, the vast majority were not. Due to time constraints and a generally inaccessibility of the coastline, the survey locations were strongly guided by numerical computations performed previous to the surveys. This numerical guidance accurately predicted the regions of highest impact, as well as regions of relatively low impact. Tide-corrected maximum flow elevations were generally in the range of 3-4 meters, while Isabela experienced the largest flow elevation of 6 m in a small pocket beach. The largest harbor in the Islands, Puerto Ayora, experienced moderate damage, with significant flooding and some structural damage. Currents in the Baltra Channel, a small waterway between Santa Cruz and Baltra, were strong enough to transport navigation buoys distances greater than 800 m. Extreme dune erosion, and the associated destruction of sea turtle nesting habit, was widespread and noted on all of the islands visited.

  10. Tsunami recurrence in the eastern Alaska-Aleutian arc: A Holocene stratigraphic record from Chirikof Island, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Alan R.; Briggs, Richard; Dura, Tina; Engelhart, Simon E.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Bradley, Lee-Ann; Forman, S.L.; Vane, Christopher H.; Kelley, K.A.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the role of the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust as the source of some of the largest earthquakes and tsunamis, the history of its pre–twentieth century tsunamis is largely unknown west of the rupture zone of the great (magnitude, M 9.2) 1964 earthquake. Stratigraphy in core transects at two boggy lowland sites on Chirikof Island’s southwest coast preserves tsunami deposits dating from the postglacial to the twentieth century. In a 500-m-long basin 13–15 m above sea level and 400 m from the sea, 4 of 10 sandy to silty beds in a 3–5-m-thick sequence of freshwater peat were probably deposited by tsunamis. The freshwater peat sequence beneath a gently sloping alluvial fan 2 km to the east, 5–15 m above sea level and 550 m from the sea, contains 20 sandy to silty beds deposited since 3.5 ka; at least 13 were probably deposited by tsunamis. Although most of the sandy beds have consistent thicknesses (over distances of 10–265 m), sharp lower contacts, good sorting, and/or upward fining typical of tsunami deposits, the beds contain abundant freshwater diatoms, very few brackish-water diatoms, and no marine diatoms. Apparently, tsunamis traveling inland over low dunes and boggy lowland entrained largely freshwater diatoms. Abundant fragmented diatoms, and lake species in some sandy beds not found in host peat, were probably transported by tsunamis to elevations of >10 m at the eastern site. Single-aliquot regeneration optically stimulated luminescence dating of the third youngest bed is consistent with its having been deposited by the tsunami recorded at Russian hunting outposts in 1788, and with the second youngest bed being deposited by a tsunami during an upper plate earthquake in 1880. We infer from stratigraphy, 14C-dated peat deposition rates, and unpublished analyses of the island’s history that the 1938 tsunami may locally have reached an elevation of >10 m. As this is the first record of Aleutian tsunamis extending throughout the Holocene, we

  11. A new survey method of tsunami inundation area using chemical analysis of soil. Application to the field survey on the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshii, Takumi; Matsuyama, Masafumi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Mas, Erick; Matsuoka, Masashi; Jimenez, Cesar

    2011-01-01

    The severe earthquake of Mw 8.8 occurred on 27 Feb. 2010 at the center of Chile. The tsunami generated by the earthquake attacked the coast of Chile and it propagated to the Pacific Ocean coastline. The field survey on the disaster damages due to the tsunami was conducted near Talcahuano in Chile to prepare for the great tsunamis accompanied by the earthquakes predicted to occur near Japan within several decades. The aims of this field survey were to survey disaster damages especially relevant to electric equipments and to develop the survey method based on a chemical analysis of the inundated soil which supplies objective data with high accuracy compared to the conventional methods. In the survey area, the average of inundation heights was 6 m, however it locally reached up to 25 m. The maximum sea-level height of the series of the tsunamis was recorded in the third or fourth wave (roughly 3 hours after the earthquake occurrence). The first floors of houses were severely destroyed and some ships were carried and left on land by the tsunamis. Furthermore, the large amount of sediment was deposited in towns. Removing the drifted ships and tsunami deposit is important consideration for quick recovery from a disaster due to a tsunami. The soil samples were obtained from both the inundated and the not-inundated position. The stirred solution was made by the soil and ultrapure water, then, the content of water-soluble ions, electric conductivity (EC), and pH were measured. The soil obtained in the tsunami inundated area contains much water-soluble ions (Na + , Mg 2+ , Cl - , Br - , SO 4 2- ) compared to the samples obtained in the not-inundated area. The discriminant analysis of the tsunami inundation was conducted using the amount of ions in the soil. High discriminant accuracy (over 90%) was obtained with Na + , Mg 2+ , Cl - , Br - , SO 4 2- and EC. Br - , Cl - , Na + are believed to be suitable for the discriminant analysis about tsunamis considering the contaminant

  12. Characteristics and damage investigation of the 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake tsunami

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuyama, Masashi

    1998-01-01

    On 17 July, 1998, an earthquake with moment magnitude Mw 7.1 (estimated by Harvard Univ.) occurred at 18:49 (local time) on the north west part of Papua New Guinea. Several minutes after the main shock, huge tsunami attacked the north coast of Sissano and Malol, where the coast is composed of straight beach with white sand, and about 7,000 people had lived in high floor wooden houses. Due to the tsunami, more than 2,000 people were killed. To investigate damage by the tsunami, a survey team of seven members was organized in Japan. The author took part in the survey team, which was headed by Prof. Kawata, of Kyoto University. We stayed in the Papua New Guinea from 30th July through 10th August 1998 to investigate the maximum water level, to interview the people about the phenomena caused by the earthquake and the tsunami, and to set three seismographs. These results imply that: (1) By main shock, an earthquake intensity of 6 on the Richter scale was felt in Sissano and Malol. In the coast area near Sissano and Malol, liquefaction took place. (2) More than 2,000 people were killed mainly due to the tsunami. (3) The maximum water level of the tsunami was about 15 m. (4) It seems that the tsunami caused not only by crustal movement, but also by other factors. This is suggested by the fact that the measured maximum water level was beyond 10 times larger than the estimated one, which was calculated by numerical simulation based on known fault parameters. It is highly probable that a submarine landslide was one of main factors which amplified the tsunami. (author)

  13. Midway Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Midway Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a suite...

  14. Yakutat Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Yakutat, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  15. Historical Tsunami Event Locations with Runups

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  16. Bermuda Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Bermuda Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  17. Coastal Tsunami and Risk Assessment for Eastern Mediterranean Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentel, E.; Yavuz, C.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunamis are rarely experienced events that have enormous potential to cause large economic destruction on the critical infrastructures and facilities, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects like erosion, accumulation and inundation. Especially for the past two decades, nations have encountered devastating tsunami events. The aim of this study is to investigate risks along the Mediterranean coastline due to probable tsunamis based on simulations using reliable historical data. In order to do this, 50 Critical Regions, CRs, (i.e. city centers, agricultural areas and summer villages) and 43 Critical Infrastructures, CIs, (i.e. airports, ports & marinas and industrial structures) are determined to perform people-centered risk assessment along Eastern Mediterranean region covering 7 countries. These countries include Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Libya. Bathymetry of the region is given in Figure 1. In this study, NAMI-DANCE is used to carry out tsunami simulations. Source of a sample tsunami simulation and maximum wave propagation in the study area for this sample tsunami are given in Figures 2 and 3, respectively.Richter magnitude,, focal depth, time of occurrence in a day and season are considered as the independent parameters of the earthquake. Historical earthquakes are used to generate reliable probability distributions for these parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) Simulations are carried out to evaluate overall risks at the coastline. Inundation level, population density, number of passenger or employee, literacy rate, annually income level and existence of human are used in risk estimations. Within each MC simulation and for each grid in the study area, people-centered tsunami risk for each of the following elements at risk is calculated: i. City centers ii. Agricultural areas iii. Summer villages iv. Ports and marinas v. Airports vi. Industrial structures Risk levels at each grid along the shoreline are

  18. Washington Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, T. J.; Schelling, J.

    2012-12-01

    Washington State has participated in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) since its inception in 1995. We have participated in the tsunami inundation hazard mapping, evacuation planning, education, and outreach efforts that generally characterize the NTHMP efforts. We have also investigated hazards of significant interest to the Pacific Northwest. The hazard from locally generated earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, which threatens tsunami inundation in less than hour following a magnitude 9 earthquake, creates special problems for low-lying accretionary shoreforms in Washington, such as the spits of Long Beach and Ocean Shores, where high ground is not accessible within the limited time available for evacuation. To ameliorate this problem, we convened a panel of the Applied Technology Council to develop guidelines for construction of facilities for vertical evacuation from tsunamis, published as FEMA 646, now incorporated in the International Building Code as Appendix M. We followed this with a program called Project Safe Haven (http://www.facebook.com/ProjectSafeHaven) to site such facilities along the Washington coast in appropriate locations and appropriate designs to blend with the local communities, as chosen by the citizens. This has now been completed for the entire outer coast of Washington. In conjunction with this effort, we have evaluated the potential for earthquake-induced ground failures in and near tsunami hazard zones to help develop cost estimates for these structures and to establish appropriate tsunami evacuation routes and evacuation assembly areas that are likely to to be available after a major subduction zone earthquake. We intend to continue these geotechnical evaluations for all tsunami hazard zones in Washington.

  19. The 8 September 2017 Tsunami Triggered by the M w 8.2 Intraplate Earthquake, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Herrera, María Teresa; Corona, Néstor; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Melgar, Diego; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge

    2018-01-01

    The 8 September 2017, M w 8.2 earthquake offshore Chiapas, Mexico, is the largest earthquake in recorded history in Chiapas since 1902. It caused damage in the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco, including more than 100 fatalities, over 1.5 million people were affected, and 41,000 homes were damaged in the state of Chiapas alone. This earthquake, an intraplate event on a normal fault on the oceanic subducting plate, generated a tsunami recorded at several tide gauge stations in Mexico and on the Pacific Ocean. Here, we report the physical effects of the tsunami on the Chiapas coast and analyze the societal implications of this tsunami on the basis of our post-tsunami field survey. The associated tsunami waves were recorded first at Huatulco tide gauge station at 5:04 (GMT) 12 min after the earthquake. We covered ground observations along 41 km of the coast of Chiapas, encompassing the sites with the highest projected wave heights based on our preliminary tsunami model (maximum tsunami amplitudes between 94.5° and 93.0°W). Runup and inundation distances were measured along eight sites. The tsunami occurred at low tide. The maximum runup was 3 m at Boca del Cielo, and maximum inundation distance was 190 m in Puerto Arista, corresponding to the coast in front of the epicenter and in the central sector of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Tsunami scour and erosion was evident along the Chiapas coast. Tsunami deposits, mainly sand, reached up to 32 cm thickness thinning landward up to 172 m distance.

  20. Integrating Caribbean Seismic and Tsunami Hazard into Public Policy and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.

    2012-12-01

    The Caribbean has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 80 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Almost 90% of all these historical tsunamis have been associated with earthquakes. Just since 1842, 3510 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along the Caribbean shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. Most of the countries also have a very high exposure to earthquakes. Given the elevated vulnerability, it is imperative that government officials take steps to mitigate the potentially devastating effects of these events. Nevertheless, given the low frequency of high impact earthquakes and tsunamis, in comparison to hurricanes, combined with social and economic considerations, the needed investments are not made and disasters like the 2010 Haiti earthquake occur. In the absence of frequent significant events, an important driving force for public officials to take action, is the dissemination of scientific studies. When papers of this nature have been published and media advisories issued, public officials demonstrate heightened interest in the topic which in turn can lead to increased legislation and funding efforts. This is especially the case if the material can be easily understood by the stakeholders and there is a local contact. In addition, given the close link between earthquakes and tsunamis, in Puerto Rico alone, 50% of the high impact earthquakes have also generated destructive tsunamis, it is very important that earthquake and tsunami hazards studies demonstrate consistency. Traditionally in the region, earthquake and tsunami impacts have been considered independently in the emergency planning

  1. A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

    2014-12-01

    Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

  2. Numerical modelling and evacuation strategies for tsunami awareness: lessons from the 2012 Haida Gwaii Tsunami

    OpenAIRE

    Santos, Angela; Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Queirós, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    On October 28, 2012, an earthquake occurred offshore Canada, with a magnitude Mw of 7.8, triggering a tsunami that propagated through the Pacific Ocean. The tsunami numerical model results show it would not be expected to generate widespread inundation on Hawaii. Yet, two hours after the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) issued a tsunami warning to the state of Hawaii. Since the state was hit by several tsunamis in the past, regular siren exercises, tsuna...

  3. Survey of the July 17, 2006 Central Javan tsunami reveals 21m runup heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H.; Goff, J.; Harbitz, C.; McAdoo, B.; Moore, A.; Latief, H.; Kalligeris, N.; Kodjo, W.; Uslu, B.; Titov, V.; Synolakis, C.

    2006-12-01

    The Monday, July 17, 2006 Central Javan 7.7 earthquake triggered a substantial tsunami that killed 600 people along a 200km stretch of coastline. The earthquake was not reported felt along the coastline. While there was a warning issued by the PTWC, it did not trigger an evacuation warning (Synolakis, 2006). The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System announced by UNESCO as operational in a press release two weeks before the event did not function as promised. There were no seismic recordings transmitted to the PTWC, and two German tsunameter buoys had broken off their moorings and were not operational. Lifeguards along a tourist beach reported that while the observed the harbinger shoreline recession, they attributed to exteme storm waves that were pounding the beaches that day. Had the tsunami struck on the preceding Sunday, instead of Monday, the death toll would had been far higher. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) surveyed the coastline measuring runup, inundation, flow depths and sediment deposition, with standard methods (Synolakis and Okal, 2004). Runup values ranged up to 21m with several readings over 10m, while sand sheets up to 15cm were deposited. The parent earthquake was similar, albeit of smaller magnitude, to the 1994 East Javan tsunami, which struck about 200km east (Synolakis, et al, 1995) and reached a maximum of 11m runup height only at one location on steep cliffs. The unusual distribution of runup heights, and the pronounced extreme values near Nusa Kambangan, suggest a local coseismic landslide may have triggered an additional tsunami (Okal and Synolakis, 2005). The ITST observed that many coastal villages were completely abandoned after the tsunami, even in locales where there were no casualties. Whether residents will return is uncertain, but it is clear that an education campaign in tsunami hazard mitigation is urgently needed. In the aftermath of the tsunami, the Government of Indonesia enforced urgent emergency preparedness

  4. Reconnaissance Survey of the 29 September 2009 Tsunami on Tutuila Island, American Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Borrero, J. C.; Okal, E.; Synolakis, C.; Weiss, R.; Jaffe, B. E.; Lynett, P. J.; Titov, V. V.; Foteinis, S.; Chan, I.; Liu, P.

    2009-12-01

    On 29 September, 2009 a magnitude Mw 8.1 earthquake occurred 200 km southwest of American Samoa’s Capital of Pago Pago and triggered a tsunami which caused substantial damage and loss of life in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. The most recent estimate is that the tsunami caused 189 fatalities, including 34 in American Samoa. This is the highest tsunami death toll on US territory since the 1964 great Alaskan earthquake and tsunami. PTWC responded and issued warnings soon after the earthquake but, because the tsunami arrived within 15 minutes at many locations, was too late to trigger evacuations. Fortunately, the people of Samoa knew to go to high ground after an earthquake because of education and tsunami evacuation exercises initiated throughout the South Pacific after a similar magnitude earthquake and tsunami struck the nearby Solomon Islands in 2007. A multi-disciplinary reconnaissance survey team was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, and performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 4 to 11 October 2009 ITST circled American Samoa’s main island Tutuila and the small nearby island of Aunu’u. The American Samoa survey data includes nearly 200 runup and flow depth measurements on Tutuila Island. The tsunami impact peaked with maximum runup exceeding 17 m at Poloa located 1.5 km northeast of Cape Taputapu marking Tutuila’s west tip. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed on Tutuila. The tsunami runup reached 12 m at Fagasa near the center of the Tutuila’s north coast and 9 m at Tula near Cape Matatula at the east end. Pago Pago, which is near the center of the south coast, represents an unfortunate example of a village and harbor that was located for protection from storm waves but is vulnerable to tsunami waves. The flow patterns inside Pago Pago harbor were characterized based on

  5. Synthetic tsunamis along the Israeli coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, Joshua; Stiassnie, Michael

    2012-04-13

    The new mathematical model for tsunami evolution by Tobias & Stiassnie (Tobias & Stiassnie 2011 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 116, C06026) is used to derive a synthetic tsunami database for the southern part of the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Information about coastal tsunami amplitudes, half-periods, currents and inundation levels is presented.

  6. MODELING THE 1958 LITUYA BAY MEGA-TSUNAMI, II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles L. Mader

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Lituya Bay, Alaska is a T-Shaped bay, 7 miles long and up to 2 miles wide. The two arms at the head of the bay, Gilbert and Crillon Inlets, are part of a trench along the Fairweather Fault. On July 8, 1958, an 7.5 Magnitude earthquake occurred along the Fairweather fault with an epicenter near Lituya Bay.A mega-tsunami wave was generated that washed out trees to a maximum altitude of 520 meters at the entrance of Gilbert Inlet. Much of the rest of the shoreline of the Bay was denuded by the tsunami from 30 to 200 meters altitude.In the previous study it was determined that if the 520 meter high run-up was 50 to 100 meters thick, the observed inundation in the rest of Lituya Bay could be numerically reproduced. It was also concluded that further studies would require full Navier-Stokes modeling similar to those required for asteroid generated tsunami waves.During the Summer of 2000, Hermann Fritz conducted experiments that reproduced the Lituya Bay 1958 event. The laboratory experiments indicated that the 1958 Lituya Bay 524 meter run-up on the spur ridge of Gilbert Inlet could be caused by a landslide impact.The Lituya Bay impact landslide generated tsunami was modeled with the full Navier- Stokes AMR Eulerian compressible hydrodynamic code called SAGE with includes the effect of gravity.

  7. Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick I.; Admire, Amanda R.; Borrero, Jose C.; Dengler, Lori A.; Legg, Mark R.; Lynett, Patrick; McCrink, Timothy P.; Miller, Kevin M.; Ritchie, Andy; Sterling, Kara; Whitmore, Paul M.

    2013-06-01

    The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over 3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over 50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to

  8. Hydraulic experiment on evaluation method of tsunami wave pressure using inundation depth and velocity in front of land structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arimitsu, Tsuyoshi; Ooe, Kazuya; Kawasaki, Koji

    2012-01-01

    Hydraulic experiments were conducted to estimate tsunami wave pressure acting on several different types of land structures and examine the influence of a seawall in front of the structure on tsunami wave pressure. Wave pressures were measured at some points on the structure. The existing hydrostatic formula tended to underestimate tsunami wave pressure under the condition of inundation flow with large Froude number. Estimation method of tsunami wave pressure using inundation depth and horizontal velocity at the front of the structure was proposed based on the experimental results. It was confirmed from comparison with the experiments that the vertical distribution of the maximum tsunami wave pressure can be reproduced by employing the proposed method in this study. (author)

  9. Chapter 3 – Phenomenology of Tsunamis: Statistical Properties from Generation to Runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2015-01-01

    Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associated with the direct arrival from the source, whereas in the near-field oblique regime, the maximum amplitude is most often associated with the propagation of edge waves. In the far field, the maximum amplitude is most often caused by the interaction of the tsunami coda that develops during basin-wide propagation and the nearshore response, including the excitation of edge waves, shelf modes, and resonance. Statistical distributions that describe tsunami observations are also reviewed, both in terms of spatial distributions, such as coseismic slip on the fault plane and near-field runup, and temporal distributions, such as wave amplitudes in the far field. In each case, fundamental theories of tsunami physics are heuristically used to explain the observations.

  10. Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

    2006-12-01

    The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

  11. Tsunami Forecast for Galapagos Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renteria, W.

    2012-04-01

    The objective of this study is to present a model for the short-term and long-term tsunami forecast for Galapagos Islands. For both cases the ComMIT/MOST(Titov,et al 2011) numerical model and methodology have been used. The results for the short-term model has been compared with the data from Lynett et al, 2011 surveyed from the impacts of the March/11 in the Galapagos Islands. For the case of long-term forecast, several scenarios have run along the Pacific, an extreme flooding map is obtained, the method is considered suitable for places with poor or without tsunami impact information, but under tsunami risk geographic location.

  12. The Sri Lanka tsunami experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Seiji; Gunatilake, Ravindu P; Roytman, Timur M; Gunatilake, Sarath; Fernando, Thushara; Fernando, Lalan

    2006-01-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 killed 31,000 people in Sri Lanka and produced morbidity primarily resulting from near-drownings and traumatic injuries. In the immediate aftermath, the survivors brought bodies to the hospitals, which hampered the hospitals' operations. The fear of epidemics led to mass burials. Infectious diseases were prevented through the provision of clean water and through vector control. Months after the tsunami, little rebuilding of permanent housing was evident, and many tsunami victims continued to reside in transit camps without means of generating their own income. The lack of an incident command system, limited funding, and political conflicts were identified as barriers to optimal relief efforts. Despite these barriers, Sri Lanka was fortunate in drawing upon a well-developed community health infrastructure as well as local and international resources. The need continues for education and training in clinical skills for mass rescue and emergency treatment, as well as participation in a multidisciplinary response.

  13. Elevating your elevator talk

    Science.gov (United States)

    An important and often overlooked item that every early career researcher needs to do is compose an elevator talk. The elevator talk, named because the talk should not last longer than an average elevator ride (30 to 60 seconds), is an effective method to present your research and yourself in a clea...

  14. Tsunami response system for ports in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, H.-R.; Cho, J.-S.; Cho, Y.-S.

    2015-09-01

    The tsunamis that have occurred in many places around the world over the past decade have taken a heavy toll on human lives and property. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from tsunamis, particularly the eastern coastal areas, which have long sustained tsunami damage. The eastern coast had been attacked by 1983 and 1993 tsunami events. The aim of this study was to mitigate the casualties and property damage against unexpected tsunami attacks along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula by developing a proper tsunami response system for important ports and harbors with high population densities and high concentrations of key national industries. The system is made based on numerical and physical modelings of 3 historical and 11 virtual tsunamis events, field surveys, and extensive interviews with related people.

  15. Analysis of Tsunami Culture in Countries Affected by Recent Tsunamis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esteban, M.; Tsimopoulou, V.; Shibayama, T.; Mikami, T.; Ohira, K.

    2012-01-01

    Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries (such as Chile and Japan), in many other places they had been virtually unheard of before 2004.

  16. Combining historical eyewitness accounts on tsunami-induced waves and numerical simulations for getting insights in uncertainty of source parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohmer, Jeremy; Rousseau, Marie; Lemoine, Anne; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Lambert, Jerome; benki, Aalae

    2017-04-01

    Recent tsunami events including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami have caused many casualties and damages to structures. Advances in numerical simulation of tsunami-induced wave processes have tremendously improved forecast, hazard and risk assessment and design of early warning for tsunamis. Among the major challenges, several studies have underlined uncertainties in earthquake slip distributions and rupture processes as major contributor on tsunami wave height and inundation extent. Constraining these uncertainties can be performed by taking advantage of observations either on tsunami waves (using network of water level gauge) or on inundation characteristics (using field evidence and eyewitness accounts). Despite these successful applications, combining tsunami observations and simulations still faces several limitations when the problem is addressed for past tsunamis events like 1755 Lisbon. 1) While recent inversion studies can benefit from current modern networks (e.g., tide gauges, sea bottom pressure gauges, GPS-mounted buoys), the number of tide gauges can be very scarce and testimonies on tsunami observations can be limited, incomplete and imprecise for past tsunamis events. These observations often restrict to eyewitness accounts on wave heights (e.g., maximum reached wave height at the coast) instead of the full observed waveforms; 2) Tsunami phenomena involve a large span of spatial scales (from ocean basin scales to local coastal wave interactions), which can make the modelling very demanding: the computation time cost of tsunami simulation can be very prohibitive; often reaching several hours. This often limits the number of allowable long-running simulations for performing the inversion, especially when the problem is addressed from a Bayesian inference perspective. The objective of the present study is to overcome both afore-described difficulties in the view to combine historical observations on past tsunami-induced waves

  17. Japan Tsunami Current Flows Observed by HF Radars on Two Continents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toshiyuki Awaji

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative real-time observations of a tsunami have been limited to deep-water, pressure-sensor observations of changes in the sea surface elevation and observations of sea level fluctuations at the coast, which are essentially point measurements. Constrained by these data, models have been used for predictions and warning of the arrival of a tsunami, but to date no detailed verification of flow patterns nor area measurements have been possible. Here we present unique HF-radar area observations of the tsunami signal seen in current velocities as the wave train approaches the coast. Networks of coastal HF-radars are now routinely observing surface currents in many countries and we report clear results from five HF radar sites spanning a distance of 8,200 km on two continents following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Sendai, Japan, on 11 March 2011. We confirm the tsunami signal with three different methodologies and compare the currents observed with coastal sea level fluctuations at tide gauges. The distance offshore at which the tsunami can be detected, and hence the warning time provided, depends on the bathymetry: the wider the shallow continental shelf, the greater this time. Data from these and other radars around the Pacific rim can be used to further develop radar as an important tool to aid in tsunami observation and warning as well as post-processing comparisons between observation and model predictions.

  18. Prototype Tsunami Evacuation Park in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, B. E.; Cedillos, V.; Deierlein, G.; Di Mauro, M.; Kornberg, K.

    2012-12-01

    Padang, Indonesia, a city of some 900,000 people, half of whom live close to the coast and within a five-meter elevation above sea level, has one of the highest tsunami risks in the world due to its close offshore thrust-fault seismic hazard, flat terrain and dense population. There is a high probability that a tsunami will strike the shores of Padang, flooding half of the area of the city, within the next 30 years. If that tsunami occurred today, it is estimated that several hundred thousand people would die, as they could not reach safe ground in the ~30 minute interval between the earthquake's occurrence and the tsunami's arrival. Padang's needs have been amply demonstrated: after earthquakes in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012, citizens, thinking that those earthquakes might cause a tsunami, tried to evacuate in cars and motorbikes, which created traffic jams, and most could not reach safe ground in 30 minutes. Since 2008, GeoHazards International (GHI) and Stanford University have studied a range of options for improving this situation, including ways to accelerate evacuation to high ground with pedestrian bridges and widened roads, and means of "vertical" evacuation in multi-story buildings, mosques, pedestrian overpasses, and Tsunami Evacuation Parks (TEPs), which are man-made hills with recreation facilities on top. TEPs proved most practical and cost-effective for Padang, given the available budget, technology and time. The Earth Observatory Singapore (EOS) developed an agent-based model that simulates pedestrian and vehicular evacuation to assess tsunami risk and risk reduction interventions in Southeast Asia. EOS applied this model to analyze the effectiveness in Padang of TEPs over other tsunami risk management approaches in terms of evacuation times and the number of people saved. The model shows that only ~24,000 people (20% of the total population) in the northern part of Padang can reach safe ground within 30 minutes, if people evacuate using cars and

  19. Tsunami of 26 December 2004

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    In the absence of earlier studies, an attempt is made to identify the vulnerable areas of the Indian coast for the damages due to Tsunami based on an earlier study reported in the context of sea level rise due to greenhouse effect. It is inferred...

  20. The Pacific tsunami warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pararas-Carayannis, G.

    1986-01-01

    Of all natural disasters, tsunamis are among the most terrifying and complex phenomena, responsible for great loss of lives and vast destruction of property. Enormous destruction of coastal communities has taken place throughout the world by such great waves since the beginning of recorded history.

  1. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    . As another application, we can define large rectangular regions of subduction zones and shallow depths to compute the progress of the fault zone towards the next major tsunami-genic earthquake. We can then rank the relative progress of the major subduction zones of the world through their cycles of large earthquakes using this method to determine which zones are most at risk.

  2. Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.

    2016-12-01

    The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.

  3. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-10-28

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

  4. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-01-01

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

  5. Source properties of the 1998 July 17 Papua New Guinea tsunami based on tide gauge records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

    2015-07-01

    We analysed four newly retrieved tide gauge records of the 1998 July 17 Papua New Guinea (PNG) tsunami to study statistical and spectral properties of this tsunami. The four tide gauge records were from Lombrum (PNG), Rabaul (PNG), Malakal Island (Palau) and Yap Island (State of Yap) stations located 600-1450 km from the source. The tsunami registered a maximum trough-to-crest wave height of 3-9 cm at these gauges. Spectral analysis showed two dominant peaks at period bands of 2-4 and 6-20 min with a clear separation at the period of ˜5 min. We interpreted these peak periods as belonging to the landslide and earthquake sources of the PNG tsunami, respectively. Analysis of the tsunami waveforms revealed 12-17 min delay in landslide generation compared to the origin time of the main shock. Numerical simulations including this delay fairly reproduced the observed tide gauge records. This is the first direct evidence of the delayed landslide source of the 1998 PNG tsunami which was previously indirectly estimated from acoustic T-phase records.

  6. Scientists Examine Challenges and Lessons From Japan's Earthquake and Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2011-03-01

    A week after the magnitude 9.0 great Tohoku earthquake and the resulting tragic and damaging tsunami of 11 March struck Japan, the ramifications continued, with a series of major aftershocks (as Eos went to press, there had been about 4 dozen with magnitudes greater than 6); the grim search for missing people—the death toll was expected to approximate 10,000; the urgent assistance needed for the more than 400,000 homeless and the 1 million people without water; and the frantic efforts to avert an environmental catastrophe at Japan's damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, about 225 kilometers northeast of Tokyo, where radiation was leaking. The earthquake offshore of Honshu in northeastern Japan (see Figure 1) was a plate boundary rupture along the Japan Trench subduction zone, with the source area of the earthquake estimated at 400-500 kilometers long with a maximum slip of 20 meters, determined through various means including Global Positioning System (GPS) and seismographic data, according to Kenji Satake, professor at the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo. In some places the tsunami may have topped 7 meters—the maximum instrumental measurement at many coastal tide gauges—and some parts of the coastline may have been inundated more than 5 kilometers inland, Satake indicated. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) noted that eyewitnesses reported that the highest tsunami waves were 13 meters high. Satake also noted that continuous GPS stations indicate that the coast near Sendai—which is 130 kilometers west of the earthquake and is the largest city in the Tohoku region of Honshu—moved more than 4 meters horizontally and subsided about 0.8 meter.

  7. Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranagalage, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

  8. Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field

  9. Impact Forces from Tsunami-Driven Debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, H.; Cox, D. T.; Riggs, H.; Naito, C. J.; Kobayashi, M. H.; Piran Aghl, P.

    2012-12-01

    Debris driven by tsunami inundation flow has been known to be a significant threat to structures, yet we lack the constitutive equations necessary to predict debris impact force. The objective of this research project is to improve our understanding of, and predictive capabilities for, tsunami-driven debris impact forces on structures. Of special interest are shipping containers, which are virtually everywhere and which will float even when fully loaded. The forces from such debris hitting structures, for example evacuation shelters and critical port facilities such as fuel storage tanks, are currently not known. This research project focuses on the impact by flexible shipping containers on rigid columns and investigated using large-scale laboratory testing. Full-scale in-air collision experiments were conducted at Lehigh University with 20 ft shipping containers to experimentally quantify the nonlinear behavior of full scale shipping containers as they collide into structural elements. The results from the full scale experiments were used to calibrate computer models and used to design a series of simpler, 1:5 scale wave flume experiments at Oregon State University. Scaled in-air collision tests were conducted using 1:5 scale idealized containers to mimic the container behavior observed in the full scale tests and to provide a direct comparison to the hydraulic model tests. Two specimens were constructed using different materials (aluminum, acrylic) to vary the stiffness. The collision tests showed that at higher speeds, the collision became inelastic as the slope of maximum impact force/velocity decreased with increasing velocity. Hydraulic model tests were conducted using the 1:5 scaled shipping containers to measure the impact load by the containers on a rigid column. The column was instrumented with a load cell to measure impact forces, strain gages to measure the column deflection, and a video camera was used to provide the debris orientation and speed. The

  10. Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suppasri, Anawat; Fukui, Kentaro; Yamashita, Kei; Leelawat, Natt; Ohira, Hiroyuki; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2018-01-01

    Since the two devastating tsunamis in 2004 (Indian Ocean) and 2011 (Great East Japan), new findings have emerged on the relationship between tsunami characteristics and damage in terms of fragility functions. Human loss and damage to buildings and infrastructures are the primary target of recovery and reconstruction; thus, such relationships for offshore properties and marine ecosystems remain unclear. To overcome this lack of knowledge, this study used the available data from two possible target areas (Mangokuura Lake and Matsushima Bay) from the 2011 Japan tsunami. This study has three main components: (1) reproduction of the 2011 tsunami, (2) damage investigation, and (3) fragility function development. First, the source models of the 2011 tsunami were verified and adjusted to reproduce the tsunami characteristics in the target areas. Second, the damage ratio (complete damage) of the aquaculture raft and eelgrass was investigated using satellite images taken before and after the 2011 tsunami through visual inspection and binarization. Third, the tsunami fragility functions were developed using the relationship between the simulated tsunami characteristics and the estimated damage ratio. Based on the statistical analysis results, fragility functions were developed for Mangokuura Lake, and the flow velocity was the main contributor to the damage instead of the wave amplitude. For example, the damage ratio above 0.9 was found to be equal to the maximum flow velocities of 1.3 m s-1 (aquaculture raft) and 3.0 m s-1 (eelgrass). This finding is consistent with the previously proposed damage criterion of 1 m s-1 for the aquaculture raft. This study is the first step in the development of damage assessment and planning for marine products and environmental factors to mitigate the effects of future tsunamis.

  11. Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Suppasri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the two devastating tsunamis in 2004 (Indian Ocean and 2011 (Great East Japan, new findings have emerged on the relationship between tsunami characteristics and damage in terms of fragility functions. Human loss and damage to buildings and infrastructures are the primary target of recovery and reconstruction; thus, such relationships for offshore properties and marine ecosystems remain unclear. To overcome this lack of knowledge, this study used the available data from two possible target areas (Mangokuura Lake and Matsushima Bay from the 2011 Japan tsunami. This study has three main components: (1 reproduction of the 2011 tsunami, (2 damage investigation, and (3 fragility function development. First, the source models of the 2011 tsunami were verified and adjusted to reproduce the tsunami characteristics in the target areas. Second, the damage ratio (complete damage of the aquaculture raft and eelgrass was investigated using satellite images taken before and after the 2011 tsunami through visual inspection and binarization. Third, the tsunami fragility functions were developed using the relationship between the simulated tsunami characteristics and the estimated damage ratio. Based on the statistical analysis results, fragility functions were developed for Mangokuura Lake, and the flow velocity was the main contributor to the damage instead of the wave amplitude. For example, the damage ratio above 0.9 was found to be equal to the maximum flow velocities of 1.3 m s−1 (aquaculture raft and 3.0 m s−1 (eelgrass. This finding is consistent with the previously proposed damage criterion of 1 m s−1 for the aquaculture raft. This study is the first step in the development of damage assessment and planning for marine products and environmental factors to mitigate the effects of future tsunamis.

  12. Effect of Nearshore Islands on Tsunami Inundation in Shadow Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goertz, J.; Kaihatu, J. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Lynett, P. J.; Synolakis, C.

    2017-12-01

    Field surveys performed in the wake of the 2010 Mentawai tsunami event have described the belief of local residents that offshore islands serve as possible tsunami sheltering mechanisms, reducing the corresponding inundation on beaches behind the islands, despite the fact that deduced inundation from debris lines show this to be in fact untrue (Hill et al. 2012). Recent numerical model studies (Stefanakis et al. 2014) have shown that inundation levels on beaches behind conical islands are indeed higher than they are on open coastlines. While work has been done on tsunami amplification on the lee side of islands (Briggs et al. 1995), no work has been done concerning tsunami inundation on beach areas behind the islands. A series of experiments to address this were conducted in the Directional Wave Basin (DWB) at the O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory at Oregon State University in summer 2016. A series of four sheet metal islands (two with a full conical section, two truncated at the water line) were placed at varying distances from the toe of a 1/10 sloping beach. Incident wave conditions consisting of solitary waves and full-stroke "dam break" waves were run over the islands. Free surface elevations, velocities, and beach runup were measured, with the intent of determining relationships between the wave condition, the island geometry and distance from the beach, and the tsunami characteristics. A series of runup measurements from a particular set of experiments can be seen in Figure 1. Based on these preliminary analyses, it was determined that: A) inundation was always amplified behind the island relative to areas outside this shadow zone; and B) inundation was generally highest with the island closest to the beach, except in the case where the tsunami wave broke prior to reaching the island. In this latter scenario, the inundation behind the island increased with island distance from the beach. The development of relationships between the inundation levels

  13. IMPACT OF TSUNAMI 2004 IN COASTAL VILLAGES OF NAGAPATTINAM DISTRICT, INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kumaraperumal

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTA quake-triggered tsunami lashed the Nagapattinam coast of southern India on December 26, 2004 at around 9.00 am (IST. The tsunami caused heavy damage to houses, tourist resorts, fishing boats, prawn culture ponds, soil and crops, and consequently affected the livelihood of large numbers of the coastal communities. The study was carried out in the Tsunami affected villages in the coastal Nagapattinam with the help of remote sensing and geographical information science tools. Through the use of the IRS 1D PAN and LISS 3 merged data and quick bird images, it was found that 1,320 ha of agricultural and non-agricultural lands were affected by the tsunami. The lands were affected by soil erosion, salt deposition, water logging and other deposited sediments and debris. The maximum run-up height of 6.1 m and the maximum seawater inundation distance of 2.2 km were observed at Vadakkupoyyur village in coastal Nagapattinam.Pre and Post Tsunami survey on soil quality showed an increase in pH and EC values, irrespectiveof distance from the sea. The water reaction was found to be in alkaline range (> 8.00 in most of the -1wells. Salinity levels are greater than 4 dS m in all the wells except the ring well. The effect of summer rainfall on soil and water quality showed the dilution of soluble salts. Pumping of water has reduced the salinity levels in the well water samples and as well as in the open ponds. Following the 2004 event, it has become apparent to know the relative tsunami hazard for this coastal Nagapattinam. So, the Tsunami hazard maps are generated using a geographical information systems (GIS approach and the results showed 20.6 per cent, 63.7 per cent and 15.2 per cent of the study area fall under high hazard, medium hazard and low hazard category respectively.

  14. Tsunami Propagation Models Based on First Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-21

    geodesic lines from the epicenter shown in the figure are great circles with a longitudinal separation of 90o, which define a ‘ lune ’ that covers one...past which the waves begin to converge according to Model C. A tsunami propagating in this lune does not encounter any continental landmass until...2011 Japan tsunami in a lune of angle 90o with wavefronts at intervals of 5,000 km The 2011 Japan tsunami was felt throughout the Pacific Ocean

  15. Development of Tsunami PSA method for Korean NPP site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil; Park, Jin Hee

    2010-01-01

    A methodology of tsunami PSA was developed in this study. A tsunami PSA consists of tsunami hazard analysis, tsunami fragility analysis and system analysis. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, evaluation of tsunami return period is major task. For the evaluation of tsunami return period, numerical analysis and empirical method can be applied. The application of this method was applied to a nuclear power plant, Ulchin 56 NPP, which is located in the east coast of Korean peninsula. Through this study, whole tsunami PSA working procedure was established and example calculation was performed for one of real nuclear power plant in Korea

  16. High resolution tsunami inversion for 2010 Chile earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.-R. Wu

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the feasibility of inverting high-resolution vertical seafloor displacement from tsunami waveforms. An inversion method named "SUTIM" (small unit tsunami inversion method is developed to meet this goal. In addition to utilizing the conventional least-square inversion, this paper also enhances the inversion resolution by Grid-Shifting method. A smooth constraint is adopted to gain stability. After a series of validation and performance tests, SUTIM is used to study the 2010 Chile earthquake. Based upon data quality and azimuthal distribution, we select tsunami waveforms from 6 GLOSS stations and 1 DART buoy record. In total, 157 sub-faults are utilized for the high-resolution inversion. The resolution reaches 10 sub-faults per wavelength. The result is compared with the distribution of the aftershocks and waveforms at each gauge location with very good agreement. The inversion result shows that the source profile features a non-uniform distribution of the seafloor displacement. The highly elevated vertical seafloor is mainly concentrated in two areas: one is located in the northern part of the epicentre, between 34° S and 36° S; the other is in the southern part, between 37° S and 38° S.

  17. High resolution tsunami inversion for 2010 Chile earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, T.-R.; Ho, T.-C.

    2011-12-01

    We investigate the feasibility of inverting high-resolution vertical seafloor displacement from tsunami waveforms. An inversion method named "SUTIM" (small unit tsunami inversion method) is developed to meet this goal. In addition to utilizing the conventional least-square inversion, this paper also enhances the inversion resolution by Grid-Shifting method. A smooth constraint is adopted to gain stability. After a series of validation and performance tests, SUTIM is used to study the 2010 Chile earthquake. Based upon data quality and azimuthal distribution, we select tsunami waveforms from 6 GLOSS stations and 1 DART buoy record. In total, 157 sub-faults are utilized for the high-resolution inversion. The resolution reaches 10 sub-faults per wavelength. The result is compared with the distribution of the aftershocks and waveforms at each gauge location with very good agreement. The inversion result shows that the source profile features a non-uniform distribution of the seafloor displacement. The highly elevated vertical seafloor is mainly concentrated in two areas: one is located in the northern part of the epicentre, between 34° S and 36° S; the other is in the southern part, between 37° S and 38° S.

  18. Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

    2017-04-01

    Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and

  19. National Geophysical Data Center Tsunami Data Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Brocko, R.

    2008-12-01

    NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology long-term tsunami data archive provides data and derived products essential for tsunami hazard assessment, forecast and warning, inundation modeling, preparedness, mitigation, education, and research. As a result of NOAA's efforts to strengthen its tsunami activities, the long-term tsunami data archive has grown from less than 5 gigabyte in 2004 to more than 2 terabytes in 2008. The types of data archived for tsunami research and operation activities have also expanded in fulfillment of the P.L. 109-424. The archive now consists of: global historical tsunami, significant earthquake and significant volcanic eruptions database; global tsunami deposits and proxies database; reference database; damage photos; coastal water-level data (i.e. digital tide gauge data and marigrams on microfiche); bottom pressure recorder (BPR) data as collected by Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys. The tsunami data archive comes from a wide variety of data providers and sources. These include the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, NOAA National Data Buoy Center, NOAA National Ocean Service, IOC/NOAA International Tsunami Information Center, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, tsunami catalogs, reconnaissance reports, journal articles, newspaper articles, internet web pages, and email. NGDC has been active in the management of some of these data for more than 50 years while other data management efforts are more recent. These data are openly available, either directly on-line or by contacting NGDC. All of the NGDC tsunami and related databases are stored in a relational database management system. These data are accessible over the Web as tables, reports, and interactive maps. The maps provide integrated web-based GIS access to individual GIS layers including tsunami sources, tsunami effects, significant earthquakes

  20. Holocene Tsunamis in Avachinsky Bay, Kamchatka, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinegina, Tatiana K.; Bazanova, Lilya I.; Zelenin, Egor A.; Bourgeois, Joanne; Kozhurin, Andrey I.; Medvedev, Igor P.; Vydrin, Danil S.

    2018-04-01

    This article presents results of the study of tsunami deposits on the Avachinsky Bay coast, Kurile-Kamchatka island arc, NW Pacific. We used tephrochronology to assign ages to the tsunami deposits, to correlate them between excavations, and to restore paleo-shoreline positions. In addition to using established regional marker tephra, we establish a detailed tephrochronology for more local tephra from Avachinsky volcano. For the first time in this area, proximal to Kamchatka's primary population, we reconstruct the vertical runup and horizontal inundation for 33 tsunamis recorded over the past 4200 years, 5 of which are historical events - 1737, 1792, 1841, 1923 (Feb) and 1952. The runup heights for all 33 tsunamis range from 1.9 to 5.7 m, and inundation distances from 40 to 460 m. The average recurrence for historical events is 56 years and for the entire study period 133 years. The obtained data makes it possible to calculate frequencies of tsunamis by size, using reconstructed runup and inundation, which is crucial for tsunami hazard assessment and long-term tsunami forecasting. Considering all available data on the distribution of historical and paleo-tsunami heights along eastern Kamchatka, we conclude that the southern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone generates stronger tsunamis than its northern part. The observed differences could be associated with variations in the relative velocity and/or coupling between the downgoing Pacific Plate and Kamchatka.

  1. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-04-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  2. Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y. Tony

    2009-01-01

    A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground

  3. Peru 2007 tsunami runup observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Borrero, J. C.

    2008-05-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed in the immediate aftermath and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. The largest runup heights were measured in a sparsely populated desert area south of the Paracas Peninsula resulting in only 3 tsunami fatalities. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the presence of the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts in the region. The Peru tsunami is compared against recent mega-disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina.

  4. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-01-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography

  5. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Cipta, Athanasius [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Australian National University, Canberra (Australia)

    2015-04-24

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  6. Holocene Tsunamis in Avachinsky Bay, Kamchatka, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinegina, Tatiana K.; Bazanova, Lilya I.; Zelenin, Egor A.; Bourgeois, Joanne; Kozhurin, Andrey I.; Medvedev, Igor P.; Vydrin, Danil S.

    2018-03-01

    This article presents results of the study of tsunami deposits on the Avachinsky Bay coast, Kurile-Kamchatka island arc, NW Pacific. We used tephrochronology to assign ages to the tsunami deposits, to correlate them between excavations, and to restore paleo-shoreline positions. In addition to using established regional marker tephra, we establish a detailed tephrochronology for more local tephra from Avachinsky volcano. For the first time in this area, proximal to Kamchatka's primary population, we reconstruct the vertical runup and horizontal inundation for 33 tsunamis recorded over the past 4200 years, 5 of which are historical events - 1737, 1792, 1841, 1923 (Feb) and 1952. The runup heights for all 33 tsunamis range from 1.9 to 5.7 m, and inundation distances from 40 to 460 m. The average recurrence for historical events is 56 years and for the entire study period 133 years. The obtained data makes it possible to calculate frequencies of tsunamis by size, using reconstructed runup and inundation, which is crucial for tsunami hazard assessment and long-term tsunami forecasting. Considering all available data on the distribution of historical and paleo-tsunami heights along eastern Kamchatka, we conclude that the southern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone generates stronger tsunamis than its northern part. The observed differences could be associated with variations in the relative velocity and/or coupling between the downgoing Pacific Plate and Kamchatka.

  7. Book review: Physics of tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2017-01-01

    “Physics of Tsunamis”, second edition, provides a comprehensive analytical treatment of the hydrodynamics associated with the tsunami generation process. The book consists of seven chapters covering 388 pages. Because the subject matter within each chapter is distinct, an abstract appears at the beginning and references appear at the end of each chapter, rather than at the end of the book. Various topics of tsunami physics are examined largely from a theoretical perspective, although there is little information on how the physical descriptions are applied in numerical models.“Physics of Tsunamis”, by B. W. Levin and M. A. Nosov, Second Edition, Springer, 2016; ISBN-10: 33-1933106X, ISBN-13: 978-331933-1065

  8. Tsunami Amplitude Estimation from Real-Time GNSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffries, C.; MacInnes, B. T.; Melbourne, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami early warning systems currently comprise modeling of observations from the global seismic network, deep-ocean DART buoys, and a global distribution of tide gauges. While these tools work well for tsunamis traveling teleseismic distances, saturation of seismic magnitude estimation in the near field can result in significant underestimation of tsunami excitation for local warning. Moreover, DART buoy and tide gauge observations cannot be used to rectify the underestimation in the available time, typically 10-20 minutes, before local runup occurs. Real-time GNSS measurements of coseismic offsets may be used to estimate finite faulting within 1-2 minutes and, in turn, tsunami excitation for local warning purposes. We describe here a tsunami amplitude estimation algorithm; implemented for the Cascadia subduction zone, that uses continuous GNSS position streams to estimate finite faulting. The system is based on a time-domain convolution of fault slip that uses a pre-computed catalog of hydrodynamic Green's functions generated with the GeoClaw shallow-water wave simulation software and maps seismic slip along each section of the fault to points located off the Cascadia coast in 20m of water depth and relies on the principle of the linearity in tsunami wave propagation. The system draws continuous slip estimates from a message broker, convolves the slip with appropriate Green's functions which are then superimposed to produce wave amplitude at each coastal location. The maximum amplitude and its arrival time are then passed into a database for subsequent monitoring and display. We plan on testing this system using a suite of synthetic earthquakes calculated for Cascadia whose ground motions are simulated at 500 existing Cascadia GPS sites, as well as real earthquakes for which we have continuous GNSS time series and surveyed runup heights, including Maule, Chile 2010 and Tohoku, Japan 2011. This system has been implemented in the CWU Geodesy Lab for the Cascadia

  9. Tsunami Loss Assessment For Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancilar, Ufuk; Cakti, Eser; Zulfikar, Can; Demircioglu, Mine; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Tsunami risk and loss assessment incorporating with the inundation mapping in Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region are presented in this study. The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of North Anatolian Fault System. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard reached very high levels with 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the Main Marmara Fault. Istanbul is the biggest city of Marmara region as well as of Turkey with its almost 12 million inhabitants. It is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey and operates as the financial and trade hub of the country. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings, as well as that of lifelines including port and harbor structures in the country is questionable. These facts make the management of earthquake risks imperative for the reduction of physical and socio-economic losses. The level of expected tsunami hazard in Istanbul is low as compared to earthquake hazard. Yet the assets at risk along the shores of the city make a thorough assessment of tsunami risk imperative. Important residential and industrial centres exist along the shores of the Marmara Sea. Particularly along the northern and eastern shores we see an uninterrupted settlement pattern with industries, businesses, commercial centres and ports and harbours in between. Following the inundation maps resulting from deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses, vulnerability and risk analyses are presented and the socio-economic losses are estimated. This study is part of EU-supported FP6 project ‘TRANSFER'.

  10. Getting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Gordon, Leslie C.

    2015-01-01

    Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, for use by researchers and emergency managers to estimate how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a tsunami-hazard zone. The ArcGIS software extension, released in September 2014, allows the user to create maps showing travel times out of hazard zones and to determine the number of people that may or may not have enough time to evacuate. The maps take into account the elevation changes and the different types of land cover that a person would encounter along the way.

  11. The El Salvador and Philippines Tsunamis of August 2012: Insights from Sea Level Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

    2014-12-01

    We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August ( Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August ( Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.

  12. Impact of a 1755-like tsunami in Huelva, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Lima

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal areas are highly exposed to natural hazards associated with the sea. In all cases where there is historical evidence for devastating tsunamis, as is the case of the southern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula, there is a need for quantitative hazard tsunami assessment to support spatial planning. Also, local authorities must be able to act towards the population protection in a preemptive way, to inform "what to do" and "where to go" and in an alarm, to make people aware of the incoming danger. With this in mind, we investigated the inundation extent, run-up and water depths, of a 1755-like event on the region of Huelva, located on the Spanish southwestern coast, one of the regions that was affected in the past by several high energy events, as proved by historical documents and sedimentological data. Modelling was made with a slightly modified version of the COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model code. Sensitivity tests were performed for a single source in order to understand the relevance and influence of the source parameters in the inundation extent and the fundamental impact parameters. We show that a 1755-like event will have a dramatic impact in a large area close to Huelva inundating an area between 82 and 92 km2 and reaching maximum run-up around 5 m. In this sense our results show that small variations on the characteristics of the tsunami source are not too significant for the impact assessment. We show that the maximum flow depth and the maximum run-up increase with the average slip on the source, while the strike of the fault is not a critical factor as Huelva is significantly far away from the potential sources identified up to now. We also show that the maximum flow depth within the inundated area is very dependent on the tidal level, while maximum run-up is less affected, as a consequence of the complex morphology of the area.

  13. A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji

    2009-01-01

    The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a "tsunami earthquake". In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 "hard" and "soft" countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5-6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning.

  14. Tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marios Karagiannis, Georgios; Synolakis, Costas

    2015-04-01

    Greece is vulnerable to tsunamis, due to the length of the coastline, its islands and its geographical proximity to the Hellenic Arc, an active subduction zone. Historically, about 10% of all world tsunamis occur in the Mediterranean region. Here we review existing tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece. We analyze capabilities across the disaster management continuum, including prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Specifically, we focus on issues like legal requirements, stakeholders, hazard mitigation practices, emergency operations plans, public awareness and education, community-based approaches and early-warning systems. Our research is based on a review of existing literature and official documentation, on previous projects, as well as on interviews with civil protection officials in Greece. In terms of tsunami disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, the lack of tsunami inundation maps, except for some areas in Crete, makes it quite difficult to get public support for hazard mitigation practices. Urban and spatial planning tools in Greece allow the planner to take into account hazards and establish buffer zones near hazard areas. However, the application of such ordinances at the local and regional levels is often difficult. Eminent domain is not supported by law and there are no regulatory provisions regarding tax abatement as a disaster prevention tool. Building codes require buildings and other structures to withstand lateral dynamic earthquake loads, but there are no provisions for resistance to impact loading from water born debris Public education about tsunamis has increased during the last half-decade but remains sporadic. In terms of disaster preparedness, Greece does have a National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and is a Member of UNESCO's Tsunami Program for North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) region. Several exercises have been organized in the framework of the NEAM Tsunami Warning

  15. Tsunamis generated by unconfined deformable granular landslides in various topographic configurations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, B. C.; Mohammed, F.; Fritz, H. M.

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events. Major tsunamis caused by landslides or volcanic island collapse were recorded at Krakatoa in 1883, Grand Banks, Newfoundland in 1929, Lituya Bay, Alaska in 1958, Papua New Guinea in 1998, and Java in 2006. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with up to 1,350 kg of naturally rounded river gravel which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down the 2H: 1V slope, launching the granular landslide towards the water at velocities of up to 5 m/s. Topographical and bathymetric features can greatly affect wave characteristics and runup heights. Landslide tsunamis are studied in different topographic and bathymetric configurations: far field propagation and runup, a narrow fjord and curved headland configurations, and a conical island setting representing landslides off an island or a volcanic flank collapse. Water surface elevations were measured using an array of resistance wave gauges. The granulate landslide width, thickness and front velocity were measured using above and underwater cameras. Landslide 3-dimensional surface reconstruction and surface velocity properties were measured using a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) setup. The speckled pattern on the surface of the granular landslide allows for cross-correlation based PIV analysis. Wave runup was measured with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance 3-dimensional numerical landslide tsunami and prediction models.

  16. A Numerical Modelling Study on the Potential Role of Tsunamis in the Biblical Exodus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M. Abril

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the narrative of the Biblical Exodus has been subject of heated debate for decades. Recent archaeological studies seem to provide new insight of the exodus path, and although with a still controversial chronology, the effects of the Minoan Santorini eruption have been proposed as a likely explanation of the biblical plagues. Particularly, it has been suggested that flooding by the associated tsunamis could explain the first plague and the sea parting. Recent modelling studies have shown that Santorini’s tsunami effects were negligible in the eastern Nile Delta, but the released tectonic stress could have triggered local tsunamigenic sources in sequence. This paper is aimed to a quantitative assessment of the potential role of tsunamis in the biblical parting of the sea. Several “best case” scenarios are tested through the application of a numerical model for tsunami propagation that has been previously validated. The former paleogeographic conditions of the eastern Nile Delta have been implemented based upon recent geological studies; and several feasible local sources for tsunamis are proposed. Tsunamis triggered by submarine landslides of 10–30 km3 could have severely impacted the northern Sinai and southern Levantine coasts but with weak effects in the eastern Nile Delta coastline. The lack of noticeable flooding in this area under the most favorable conditions for tsunamis, along with the time sequence of water elevations, make difficult to accept them as a plausible and literally explanation of the first plague and of the drowning of the Egyptian army in the surroundings of the former Shi-Hor Lagoon.

  17. A shallow water model for the propagation of tsunami via Lattice Boltzmann method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zergani, Sara; Aziz, Z. A.; Viswanathan, K. K.

    2015-01-01

    An efficient implementation of the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) for the numerical simulation of the propagation of long ocean waves (e.g. tsunami), based on the nonlinear shallow water (NSW) wave equation is presented. The LBM is an alternative numerical procedure for the description of incompressible hydrodynamics and has the potential to serve as an efficient solver for incompressible flows in complex geometries. This work proposes the NSW equations for the irrotational surface waves in the case of complex bottom elevation. In recent time, equation involving shallow water is the current norm in modelling tsunami operations which include the propagation zone estimation. Several test-cases are presented to verify our model. Some implications to tsunami wave modelling are also discussed. Numerical results are found to be in excellent agreement with theory.

  18. A shallow water model for the propagation of tsunami via Lattice Boltzmann method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zergani, Sara; Aziz, Z A; Viswanathan, K K

    2015-01-01

    An efficient implementation of the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) for the numerical simulation of the propagation of long ocean waves (e.g. tsunami), based on the nonlinear shallow water (NSW) wave equation is presented. The LBM is an alternative numerical procedure for the description of incompressible hydrodynamics and has the potential to serve as an efficient solver for incompressible flows in complex geometries. This work proposes the NSW equations for the irrotational surface waves in the case of complex bottom elevation. In recent time, equation involving shallow water is the current norm in modelling tsunami operations which include the propagation zone estimation. Several test-cases are presented to verify our model. Some implications to tsunami wave modelling are also discussed. Numerical results are found to be in excellent agreement with theory

  19. The effects of the 2004 tsunami on a coastal aquifer in Sri Lanka

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vithanage, Meththika Suharshini; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard; Villholth, Karen G.

    2012-01-01

    ) of the groundwater were carried out monthly from October 2005 to August 2007. The aquifer system and tsunami saltwater intrusion were modeled using the variable-density flow and solute transport code HST3D to understand the tsunami plume behavior and estimate the aquifer recovery time. EC values reduced as a result...... on groundwater in coastal areas. Field investigations on the east coast of Sri Lanka were carried out along a transect located perpendicular to the coastline on a 2.4 km wide sand stretch bounded by the sea and a lagoon. Measurements of groundwater table elevation and electrical conductivity (EC...... of the monsoonal rainfall following the tsunami with a decline in reduction rate during the dry season. The upper part of the saturated zone (down to 2.5 m) returned to freshwater conditions (EC

  20. The Solomon Islands tsunami of 6 February 2013 field survey in the Santa Cruz Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Papantoniou, A.; Biukoto, L.; Albert, G.

    2013-12-01

    On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were

  1. Seismic and tsunami safety margin assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    Nuclear Regulation Authority is going to establish new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines to increase the safety of NPPs. The main purpose of this research is testing structures/components important to safety and tsunami resistant structures/components, and evaluating the capacity of them against earthquake and tsunami. Those capacity data will be utilized for the seismic and tsunami back-fit review based on the new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines. The summary of the program in 2012 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. PWR emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests have been conducted and quantitative seismic capacities have been evaluated. 2. Seismic capacity evaluation of switching-station electric equipment. Existing seismic test data investigation, specification survey and seismic response analyses have been conducted. 3. Tsunami capacity evaluation of anti-inundation measure facilities. Tsunami pressure test have been conducted utilizing a small breakwater model and evaluated basic characteristics of tsunami pressure against seawall structure. (author)

  2. Seismic and tsunami safety margin assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear Regulation Authority is going to establish new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines to increase the safety of NPPs. The main purpose of this research is testing structures/components important to safety and tsunami resistant structures/components, and evaluating the capacity of them against earthquake and tsunami. Those capacity data will be utilized for the seismic and tsunami back-fit review based on the new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines. The summary of the program in 2012 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. PWR emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests have been conducted and quantitative seismic capacities have been evaluated. 2. Seismic capacity evaluation of switching-station electric equipment. Existing seismic test data investigation, specification survey and seismic response analyses have been conducted. 3. Tsunami capacity evaluation of anti-inundation measure facilities. Tsunami pressure test have been conducted utilizing a small breakwater model and evaluated basic characteristics of tsunami pressure against seawall structure. (author)

  3. Tsunami excitation by inland/coastal earthquakes: the Green function approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. B. Yanovskaya

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the linear theory, the representation theorem is derived for an incompressible liquid layer with a boundary of arbitrary shape and in a homogeneous gravity field. In addition, the asymptotic representation for the Green function, in a layer of constant thickness is obtained. The validity of the approach for the calculation of the tsunami wavefield based on the Green function technique is verified comparing the results with those obtained from the modal theory, for a liquid layer of infinite horizontal dimensions. The Green function approach is preferable for the estimation of the excitation spectra, since in the case of an infinite liquid layer it leads to simple analytical expressions. From this analysis it is easy to describe the peculiarities of tsunami excitation by different sources. The method is extended to the excitation of tsunami in a semiinfinite layer with a sloping boundary. Numerical modelling of the tsunami wavefield, excited by point sources at different distances from the coastline, shows that when the source is located at a distance from the coastline equal or larger than the source depth, the shore presence does not affect the excitation of the tsunami. When the source is moved towards thecoastline, the low frequency content in the excitation spectrum ecreases, while the high frequencies content increases dramatically. The maximum of the excitation spectra from inland sources, located at a distance from the shore like the source depth, becomes less than 10% of that radiated if the same source is located in the open ocean. The effect of the finiteness of the source is also studied and the excitation spectrum is obtained by integration over the fault area. Numerical modelling of the excitation spectra for different source models shows that, for a given seismic moment, the spectral level, as well as the maximum value of the spectra, decreases with increasing fault size. When the sources are located in the

  4. Observations and Modeling of the 27 February 2010 Tsunami in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synolakis, C. E.; Fritz, H. M.; Petroff, C. M.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Winckler, P.; Kalligeris, N.; Weiss, R.; Meneses, G.; Valderas-Bermejo, C.; Ebeling, C. W.; Papadopoulos, A.; Contreras, M.; Almar, R.; Dominguez, J. C.; Barrientos, S. E.

    2010-12-01

    On 27 February 2010, a magnitude Mw 8.8 earthquake occurred just off the coast of Chile, 100km N of Concepción, causing substantial damage and loss of life on Chile’s mainland and the Juan Fernandez archipelago. The tsunami accounts for 124 victims out of about 500 fatalities. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from past tsunamis such as the giant 1960 event and tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. The majority of the tsunami victims were tourists staying overnight in low lying camp grounds along the coast. A multi-disciplinary ITST was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment per established protocols. The 3-25 March ITST covered an 800km stretch of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín in various subgroups the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter Island), while Mocha Island was surveyed 21-23 May, 2010. The collected survey data includes more than 400 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked with a localized maximum runup of 29m on a coastal bluff at Constitución and 23 m on marine terraces on Mocha. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along Chile’s mainland both at local and regional scales. Inundation and damage also occurred several kilometers inland along rivers. Observations from the Chile tsunami are compared against the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The tsunamigenic seafloor displacements were partially characterized based on coastal uplift measurements along a 100 km stretch of coastline between Caleta Chome and Punta Morguilla. More than 2 m vertical uplift were measured on Santa Maria Island. Coastal uplift measurements in Chile are compared with tectonic land level changes

  5. Topographic data acquisition in tsunami-prone coastal area using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marfai, M. A.; Sunarto; Khakim, N.; Cahyadi, A.; Rosaji, F. S. C.; Fatchurohman, H.; Wibowo, Y. A.

    2018-04-01

    The southern coastal area of Java Island is one of the nine seismic gaps prone to tsunamis. The entire coastline in one of the regencies, Gunungkidul, is exposed to the subduction zone in the Indian Ocean. Also, the growing tourism industries in the regency increase its vulnerability, which places most of its areas at high risk of tsunamis. The same case applies to Kukup, i.e., one of the most well-known beaches in Gunungkidul. Structurally shaped cliffs that surround it experience intensive wave erosion process, but it has very minimum access for evacuation routes. Since tsunami modeling is a very advanced analysis, it requires an accurate topographic data. Therefore, the research aimed to generate the topographic data of Kukup Beach as the baseline in tsunami risk reduction analysis and disaster management. It used aerial photograph data, which was acquired using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The results showed that the aerial photographs captured by drone had accurate elevation and spatial resolution. Therefore, they are applicable for tsunami modeling and disaster management.

  6. Numerical Procedure to Forecast the Tsunami Parameters from a Database of Pre-Simulated Seismic Unit Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, César; Carbonel, Carlos; Rojas, Joel

    2018-04-01

    We have implemented a numerical procedure to forecast the parameters of a tsunami, such as the arrival time of the front of the first wave and the maximum wave height in real and virtual tidal stations along the Peruvian coast, with this purpose a database of pre-computed synthetic tsunami waveforms (or Green functions) was obtained from numerical simulation of seismic unit sources (dimension: 50 × 50 km2) for subduction zones from southern Chile to northern Mexico. A bathymetry resolution of 30 arc-sec (approximately 927 m) was used. The resulting tsunami waveform is obtained from the superposition of synthetic waveforms corresponding to several seismic unit sources contained within the tsunami source geometry. The numerical procedure was applied to the Chilean tsunami of April 1, 2014. The results show a very good correlation for stations with wave amplitude greater than 1 m, in the case of the Arica tide station an error (from the maximum height of the observed and simulated waveform) of 3.5% was obtained, for Callao station the error was 12% and the largest error was in Chimbote with 53.5%, however, due to the low amplitude of the Chimbote wave (<1 m), the overestimated error, in this case, is not important for evacuation purposes. The aim of the present research is tsunami early warning, where speed is required rather than accuracy, so the results should be taken as preliminary.

  7. A prehistoric tsunami induced long-lasting ecosystem changes on a semi-arid tropical island--the case of Boka Bartol (Bonaire, Leeward Antilles).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Max; Brückner, Helmut; Fürstenberg, Sascha; Frenzel, Peter; Konopczak, Anna Maria; Scheffers, Anja; Kelletat, Dieter; May, Simon Matthias; Schäbitz, Frank; Daut, Gerhard

    2013-01-01

    The Caribbean is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. Based on their short recurrence intervals over the intra-American seas, high-category tropical cyclones and their associated effects of elevated storm surge, heavy wave impacts, mudslides and floods represent the most serious threat. Given the abundance of historical accounts and trigger mechanisms (strike-slip motion and oblique collision at the northern and southern Caribbean plate boundaries, submarine and coastal landslides, volcanism), tsunamis must be considered as well. This paper presents interdisciplinary multi-proxy investigations of sediment cores (grain size distribution, carbonate content, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility, microfauna, macrofauna) from Washington-Slagbaai National Park, NW Bonaire (Leeward Antilles). No historical tsunami is recorded for this island. However, an allochthonous marine layer found in all cores at Boka Bartol reveals several sedimentary criteria typically linked with tsunami deposits. Calibrated (14)C data from these cores point to a palaeotsunami with a maximum age of 3,300 years. Alternative explanations for the creation of this layer, such as inland flooding during tropical cyclones, cannot entirely be ruled out, though in recent times even the strongest of these events on Bonaire did not deposit significant amounts of sediment onshore. The setting of Boka Bartol changed from an open mangrove-fringed embayment into a poly- to hyperhaline lagoon due to the establishment or closure of a barrier of coral rubble during or subsequent to the inferred event. The timing of the event is supported by further sedimentary evidence from other lagoonal and alluvial archives on Bonaire.

  8. -Advanced Models for Tsunami and Rogue Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Pravica

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A wavelet , that satisfies the q-advanced differential equation for , is used to model N-wave oscillations observed in tsunamis. Although q-advanced ODEs may seem nonphysical, we present an application that model tsunamis, in particular the Japanese tsunami of March 11, 2011, by utilizing a one-dimensional wave equation that is forced by . The profile is similar to tsunami models in present use. The function is a wavelet that satisfies a q-advanced harmonic oscillator equation. It is also shown that another wavelet, , matches a rogue-wave profile. This is explained in terms of a resonance wherein two small amplitude forcing waves eventually lead to a large amplitude rogue. Since wavelets are used in the detection of tsunamis and rogues, the signal-analysis performance of and is examined on actual data.

  9. Tsunami sediments and their grain size characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulastya Putra, Purna

    2018-02-01

    Characteristics of tsunami deposits are very complex as the deposition by tsunami is very complex processes. The grain size characteristics of tsunami deposits are simply generalized no matter the local condition in which the deposition took place. The general characteristics are fining upward and landward, poor sorting, and the grain size distribution is not unimodal. Here I review the grain size characteristics of tsunami deposit in various environments: swale, coastal marsh and lagoon/lake. Review results show that although there are similar characters in some environments and cases, but in detail the characteristics in each environment can be distinguished; therefore, the tsunami deposit in each environment has its own characteristic. The local geological and geomorphological condition of the environment may greatly affect the grain size characteristics.

  10. The El Asnam 1980 October 10 inland earthquake: a new hypothesis of tsunami generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger, J.; Hébert, H.; Ruegg, J.-C.; Briole, P.

    2011-06-01

    The Western Mediterranean Sea is not considered as a high seismic region. Only several earthquakes with magnitude above five occur each year and only a handful have consequences on human beings and infrastructure. The El Asnam (Algeria) earthquake of 1980 October 10 with an estimated magnitude Ms= 7.3 is one of the most destructive earthquakes recorded in northern Africa and more largely in the Western Mediterranean Basin. Although it is located inland, it is known to have been followed by a small tsunami recorded on several tide gauges along the southeastern Spanish Coast. In 1954, a similar earthquake having occurred at the same location induced a turbidity current associated to a submarine landslide, which is widely known to have cut submarine phone cables far from the coast. This event was followed by a small tsunami attributed to the landslide. Thus the origin of the tsunami of 1980 was promptly attributed to the same kind of submarine slide. As no evidence of such mass movement was highlighted, and because the tsunami wave periods does not match with a landslide origin in both cases (1954 and 1980), this study considers two rupture scenarios, that the coseismic deformation itself (of about 10 cm off the Algerian coast near Ténès) is sufficient to produce a low amplitude (several centimetres) tsunami able to reach the Spanish southeastern coast from Alicante to Algeciras (Gibraltar strait to the west). After a discussion concerning the proposed rupture scenarios and their respective parameters, numerical tsunami modelling is performed on a set of bathymetric grids. Then the results of wave propagation and amplification (maximum wave height maps) are discussed, with a special attention to Alicante (Spain) Harbour where the location of two historical tide gauges allows the comparison between synthetic mareograms and historical records showing sufficient signal amplitude. This study is part of the active tsunami hazard assessment in Mediterranean Sea especially

  11. FIELD SURVEY REPORT OF TSUNAMI EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE AUGUST 2012 OFFSHORE EL SALAVADOR EARTHQUAKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Gavidia-Medina

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This report describes the field survey of the western zone of El Salvador conducted by an international group of scientists and engineers following the earthquake and tsunami of 27 August 2012 (04:37 UTC, 26 August 10:37 pm local time. The earthquake generated a tsunami with a maximum height of ~ 6 m causing inundation of up to 300 m inland along a 40 km section of coastline in eastern El Salvador. * (Note: Presentation from the 6th International Tsunami Symposium of Tsunami Society International in Costa Rica in Sept. 2014 - based on the Field Survey Report of the tsunami effects caused by the August 2012 Earthquake which were compiled in a report by Jose C. Borrero of the University of California Tsunami Research Center. Contributors to that report and field survey participants included Hermann M. Fritz of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Francisco Gavidia-Medina, Jeniffer Larreynaga-Murcia, Rodolfo Torres-Cornejo, Manuel Diaz-Flores and Fabio Alvarad: of the Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales de El Salvador (MARN, Norwin Acosta: of the Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales( INOTER, Julie Leonard of the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID, OFDA, Nic Arcos of the International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC and Diego Arcas of the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA – PMEL The figures of this paper are from the report compiled by Jose C. Borrero and are numbered out of sequence out of sequence from the compiled joint report. The quality of figures 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4 is rather poor and the reader is referred to the original report, as shown in the references.

  12. OBSERVATION OF TSUNAMI RADIATION AT TOHOKU BY REMOTE SENSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank C. Lin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present prima facie evidence that upon the onset of the Tohoku tsunami of Mar. 11, 2011 infrared radiation was emitted by the tsunami and was detected by the Japanese satellite MTSAT-IR1, in agreement with our earlier findings for the Great Sumatra Tsunami of 2004. Implications for a worldwide Tsunami Early Warning System are discussed.

  13. Effect of earthquake and tsunami. Ground motion and tsunami observed at nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hijikata, Katsuichirou

    2012-01-01

    Fukushima Daiichi and Daini Nuclear Power Stations (NPSs) were struck by the earthquake off the pacific coast in the Tohoku District, which occurred at 14:46 on March 11, 2011. Afterwards, tsunamis struck the Tohoku District. In terms of the earthquake observed at the Fukushima NPSs, the acceleration response spectra of the earthquake movement observed on the basic board of reactor buildings exceeded the acceleration response spectra of the response acceleration to the standard seismic ground motion Ss for partial periodic bands at the Fukushima Daiichi NPS. As for the Fukushima Daini NPS, the acceleration response spectra of the earthquake movement observed on the basic board of the reactor buildings was below the acceleration response spectra of the response acceleration to the standard seismic ground motion Ss. Areas inundated by Tsunami at each NPS were investigated and tsunami inversion analysis was made to build tsunami source model to reproduce tide record, tsunami height, crustal movement and inundated area, based on tsunami observation records in the wide areas from Hokkaido to Chiba prefectures. Tsunami heights of Fukushima Daiichi and Daini NPSs were recalculated as O.P. +13m and +9m respectively and tsunami peak height difference was attributed to the extent of superposition of tsunami waves of tsunami earthquake type of wave source in the area along interplane trench off the coast in the Fukushima prefecture and interplane earthquake type of wave source in rather deep interplate area off the coast in the Miyagi prefecture. (T. Tanaka)

  14. TSUNAMIS AND TSUNAMI-LIKE WAVES OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F. Lander

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The threat of tsunamis and tsunami-like waves hitting the eastern United States is very real despite a general impression to the contrary. We have cataloged 40 tsunamis and tsunami-like waves that have occurred in the eastern United States since 1600. Tsunamis were generated from such events as the 1755 Queen Anne’s earthquake, the Grand Banks event of 1929, the Charleston earthquake of 1886, and the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812. The Queen Anne tsunami was observed as far away as St. Martin in the West Indies and is the only known teletsunami generated in this source region.Since subduction zones are absent around most of the Atlantic basin, tsunamis and tsunami-like waves along the United States East Coast are not generated from this traditional source, but appear, in most cases to be the result of slumping or landsliding associated with local earthquakes or with wave action associated with strong storms. Other sources of tsunamis and tsunami-like waves along the eastern seaboard have recently come to light including volcanic debris falls or catastrophic failure of volcanic slopes; explosive decompression of underwater methane deposits or oceanic meteor splashdowns. These sources are considered as well.

  15. Real-time correction of tsunami site effect by frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsushima, H.

    2017-12-01

    For tsunami early warning, I developed frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor and used it to design a recursive digital filter that can be applicable for real-time correction of tsunami site response. In this study, I assumed that a tsunami waveform at an observing point could be modeled by convolution of source, path and site effects in time domain. Under this assumption, spectral ratio between offshore and the nearby coast can be regarded as site response (i.e. frequency-dependent amplification factor). If the amplification factor can be prepared before tsunamigenic earthquakes, its temporal convolution to offshore tsunami waveform provides tsunami prediction at coast in real time. In this study, tsunami waveforms calculated by tsunami numerical simulations were used to develop frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor. Firstly, I performed numerical tsunami simulations based on nonlinear shallow-water theory from many tsuanmigenic earthquake scenarios by varying the seismic magnitudes and locations. The resultant tsunami waveforms at offshore and the nearby coastal observing points were then used in spectral-ratio analysis. An average of the resulted spectral ratios from the tsunamigenic-earthquake scenarios is regarded as frequency-dependent amplification factor. Finally, the estimated amplification factor is used in design of a recursive digital filter that can be applicable in time domain. The above procedure is applied to Miyako bay at the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. The averaged tsunami-height spectral ratio (i.e. amplification factor) between the location at the center of the bay and the outside show a peak at wave-period of 20 min. A recursive digital filter based on the estimated amplification factor shows good performance in real-time correction of tsunami-height amplification due to the site effect. This study is supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI grant 15K16309.

  16. Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Darrel

    2016-01-01

    Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

  17. FEATURES AND PROBLEMS WITH HISTORICAL GREAT EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lobkovsky L.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the historical earthquakes and tsunamis of 21 July 365 and of 9 February 1948 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Numerical simulations were performed for the tsunamis generated by underwater seismic sources in frames of the keyboard model, as well as for their propagation in the Mediterranean Sea basin. Similarly examined were three different types of seismic sources at the same localization near the Island of Crete for the earthquake of 21 July 365, and of two different types of seismic sources for the earthquake of 9 February 1948 near the Island of Karpathos. For each scenario, the tsunami wave field characteristics from the earthquake source to coastal zones in Mediterranean Sea’s basin were obtained and histograms were constructed showing the distribution of maximum tsunami wave heights, along a 5-m isobath. Comparison of tsunami wave characteristics for all the above mentioned scenarios, demonstrates that underwater earthquakes with magnitude M > 7 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea basin, can generate waves with coastal runup up to 9 m.

  18. The First Real-Time Tsunami Animation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C.; Weinstein, S.; Ward, B.

    2014-12-01

    For the first time a U.S. tsunami warning center created and issued a tsunami forecast model animation while the tsunami was still crossing an ocean. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists had predicted they would have this ability (Becker et al., 2012) with their RIFT forecast model (Wang et al., 2009) by using rapidly-determined W-phase centroid-moment tensor earthquake focal mechanisms as tsunami sources in the RIFT model (Wang et al., 2012). PTWC then acquired its own YouTube channel in 2013 for its outreach efforts that showed animations of historic tsunamis (Becker et al., 2013), but could also be a platform for sharing future tsunami animations. The 8.2 Mw earthquake of 1 April 2014 prompted PTWC to issue official warnings for a dangerous tsunami in Chile, Peru and Ecuador. PTWC ended these warnings five hours later, then issued its new tsunami marine hazard product (i.e., no coastal evacuations) for the State of Hawaii. With the international warning canceled but with a domestic hazard still present PTWC generated a forecast model animation and uploaded it to its YouTube channel six hours before the arrival of the first waves in Hawaii. PTWC also gave copies of this animation to television reporters who in turn passed it on to their national broadcast networks. PTWC then created a version for NOAA's Science on a Sphere system so it could be shown on these exhibits as the tsunami was still crossing the Pacific Ocean. While it is difficult to determine how many people saw this animation since local, national, and international news networks showed it in their broadcasts, PTWC's YouTube channel provides some statistics. As of 1 August 2014 this animation has garnered more than 650,000 views. Previous animations, typically released during significant anniversaries, rarely get more than 10,000 views, and even then only when external websites share them. Clearly there is a high demand for a tsunami graphic that shows both the speed and the severity of a

  19. Second international tsunami workshop on the technical aspects of tsunami warning systems, tsunami analysis, preparedness, observation and instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The Second Workshop on the Technical Aspects of Tsunami Warning Systems, Tsunami Analysis, Preparedness, Observation, and Instrumentation, sponsored and convened by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), was held on 1-2 August 1989, in the modern and attractive research town of Academgorodok, which is located 20 km south from downtown Novosibirsk, the capital of Siberia, USSR. The Program was arranged in eight major areas of interest covering the following: Opening and Introduction; Survey of Existing Tsunami Warning Centers - present status, results of work, plans for future development; Survey of some existing seismic data processing systems and future projects; Methods for fast evaluation of Tsunami potential and perspectives of their implementation; Tsunami data bases; Tsunami instrumentation and observations; Tsunami preparedness; and finally, a general discussion and adoption of recommendations. The Workshop presentations not only addressed the conceptual improvements that have been made, but focused on the inner workings of the Tsunami Warning System, as well, including computer applications, on-line processing and numerical modelling. Furthermore, presentations reported on progress has been made in the last few years on data telemetry, instrumentation and communications. Emphasis was placed on new concepts and their application into operational techniques that can result in improvements in data collection, rapid processing of the data, in analysis and prediction. A Summary Report on the Second International Tsunami Workshop, containing abstracted and annotated proceedings has been published as a separate report. The present Report is a Supplement to the Summary Report and contains the full text of the papers presented at this Workshop. Refs, figs and tabs

  20. Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necmioglu, Ocal; Özel, Nurcan Meral

    2015-12-01

    We identified a set of tsunami scenario input parameters in a 0.5° × 0.5° uniformly gridded area in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean (both for shallow- and intermediate-depth earthquakes) and Black Seas (only shallow earthquakes) and calculated tsunami scenarios using the SWAN-Joint Research Centre (SWAN-JRC) code ( Mader 2004; Annunziato 2007) with 2-arcmin resolution bathymetry data for the range of 6.5—Mwmax with an Mw increment of 0.1 at each grid in order to realize a comprehensive analysis of tsunami wave heights from earthquakes originating in the region. We defined characteristic earthquake source parameters from a compiled set of sources such as existing moment tensor catalogues and various reference studies, together with the Mwmax assigned in the literature, where possible. Results from 2,415 scenarios show that in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean and Black Sea), shallow earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5 may result in coastal wave heights of 0.5 m, whereas the same wave height would be expected only from intermediate-depth earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.0 . The distribution of maximum wave heights calculated indicate that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m could be expected in the northern Aegean, whereas in the Black Sea, Cyprus, Levantine coasts, northern Libya, eastern Sicily, southern Italy, and western Greece, up to 3-m wave height could be possible. Crete, the southern Aegean, and the area between northeast Libya and Alexandria (Egypt) is prone to maximum tsunami wave heights of >3 m. Considering that calculations are performed at a minimum bathymetry depth of 20 m, these wave heights may, according to Green's Law, be amplified by a factor of 2 at the coastline. The study can provide a basis for detailed tsunami hazard studies in the region.

  1. Correlation Equation of Fault Size, Moment Magnitude, and Height of Tsunami Case Study: Historical Tsunami Database in Sulawesi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julius, Musa, Admiral; Pribadi, Sugeng; Muzli, Muzli

    2018-03-01

    Sulawesi, one of the biggest island in Indonesia, located on the convergence of two macro plate that is Eurasia and Pacific. NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory show more than 20 tsunami data recorded in Sulawesi since 1820. Based on this data, determination of correlation between tsunami and earthquake parameter need to be done to proved all event in the past. Complete data of magnitudes, fault sizes and tsunami heights on this study sourced from NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami database, completed with Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) catalog. This study aims to find correlation between moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami height by simple regression. The step of this research are data collecting, processing, and regression analysis. Result shows moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami heights strongly correlated. This analysis is enough to proved the accuracy of historical tsunami database in Sulawesi on NOAA, Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory and PTWC.

  2. Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

    2015-04-01

    Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk

  3. Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.

  4. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  5. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  6. Numerical experiment on tsunami deposit distribution process by using tsunami sediment transport model in historical tsunami event of megathrust Nankai trough earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, K.; Sugawara, D.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    A large flow caused by tsunami transports sediments from beach and forms tsunami deposits in land and coastal lakes. A tsunami deposit has been found in their undisturbed on coastal lakes especially. Okamura & Matsuoka (2012) found some tsunami deposits in the field survey of coastal lakes facing to the Nankai trough, and tsunami deposits due to the past eight Nankai Trough megathrust earthquakes they identified. The environment in coastal lakes is stably calm and suitable for tsunami deposits preservation compared to other topographical conditions such as plains. Therefore, there is a possibility that the recurrence interval of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis will be discussed with high resolution. In addition, it has been pointed out that small events that cannot be detected in plains could be separated finely (Sawai, 2012). Various aspects of past tsunami is expected to be elucidated, in consideration of topographical conditions of coastal lakes by using the relationship between the erosion-and-sedimentation process of the lake bottom and the external force of tsunami. In this research, numerical examination based on tsunami sediment transport model (Takahashi et al., 1999) was carried out on the site Ryujin-ike pond of Ohita, Japan where tsunami deposit was identified, and deposit migration analysis was conducted on the tsunami deposit distribution process of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Furthermore, examination of tsunami source conditions is possibly investigated by comparison studies of the observed data and the computation of tsunami deposit distribution. It is difficult to clarify details of tsunami source from indistinct information of paleogeographical conditions. However, this result shows that it can be used as a constraint condition of the tsunami source scale by combining tsunami deposit distribution in lakes with computation data.

  7. Plasmon tsunamis on metallic nanoclusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, A A; Sunjic, M

    2012-03-14

    A model is constructed to describe inelastic scattering events accompanying electron capture by a highly charged ion flying by a metallic nanosphere. The electronic energy liberated by an electron leaving the Fermi level of the metal and dropping into a deep Rydberg state of the ion is used to increase the ion kinetic energy and, simultaneously, to excite multiple surface plasmons around the positively charged hole left behind on the metal sphere. This tsunami-like phenomenon manifests itself as periodic oscillations in the kinetic energy gain spectrum of the ion. The theory developed here extends our previous treatment (Lucas et al 2011 New J. Phys. 13 013034) of the Ar(q+)/C(60) charge exchange system. We provide an analysis of how the individual multipolar surface plasmons of the metallic sphere contribute to the formation of the oscillatory gain spectrum. Gain spectra showing characteristic, tsunami-like oscillations are simulated for Ar(15+) ions capturing one electron in distant collisions with Al and Na nanoclusters.

  8. Role of Compressibility on Tsunami Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdolali, Ali; Kirby, James T.

    2017-12-01

    In the present paper, we aim to reduce the discrepancies between tsunami arrival times evaluated from tsunami models and real measurements considering the role of ocean compressibility. We perform qualitative studies to reveal the phase speed reduction rate via a modified version of the Mild Slope Equation for Weakly Compressible fluid (MSEWC) proposed by Sammarco et al. (2013). The model is validated against a 3-D computational model. Physical properties of surface gravity waves are studied and compared with those for waves evaluated from an incompressible flow solver over realistic geometry for 2011 Tohoku-oki event, revealing reduction in phase speed.Plain Language SummarySubmarine earthquakes and submarine mass failures (SMFs), can generate long gravitational waves (or tsunamis) that propagate at the free surface. Tsunami waves can travel long distances and are known for their dramatic effects on coastal areas. Nowadays, numerical models are used to reconstruct the tsunamigenic events for many scientific and socioeconomic aspects i.e. Tsunami Early Warning Systems, inundation mapping, risk and hazard analysis, etc. A number of typically neglected parameters in these models cause discrepancies between model outputs and observations. Most of the tsunami models predict tsunami arrival times at distant stations slightly early in comparison to observations. In this study, we show how ocean compressibility would affect the tsunami wave propagation speed. In this framework, an efficient two-dimensional model equation for the weakly compressible ocean has been developed, validated and tested for simplified and real cases against three dimensional and incompressible solvers. Taking the effect of compressibility, the phase speed of surface gravity waves is reduced compared to that of an incompressible fluid. Then, we used the model for the case of devastating Tohoku-Oki 2011 tsunami event, improving the model accuracy. This study sheds light for future model development

  9. Tsunami deposits at MIS Stages 5e and 9 on Oahu, Hawaii: implications for sea level at interglacial stages

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMurtry, G. M.; Campbell, J. F.; Fryer, G. J.; Tappin, D. R.; Fietzke, J.

    2010-12-01

    Sandy, basalt-coral conglomerates associated with both beachrock and coral reefs are found at high elevations on Oahu, Hawaii. They have been attributed to either brief, sea level high-stands or storms. The Kahe Point conglomerates are at 12.5 m elevation, whereas the main stage MIS-5e reef at this location has a maximum elevation of 8.2 m. They are loosely consolidated and poorly cemented, graded, poorly sorted, and with varying amounts of basalt and coral clasts ranging from cobble to boulder size. Coral in these deposits has been U-series dated by us at between 120-125 ka (n=5). Four distinct beds, with a gently seaward tilt, are recognized in a road cut section, with each bed composed of a few cm-thick topset bed of fine-grained, shelly, calcareous sand to silt. Similar high elevation conglomerates and 5e reefs are also described at Mokapu and Kaena Points on Oahu, indicating an island-wide deposit. Older coral clasts, dated at 130 to 142 ka (n=6; oldest by alpha spectrometry) found in association with the stage 5e corals suggest reworking and incorporation of older low-stand reef material. The coarse grain size of the conglomerates indicates deposition from a high-energy event; thus a high-stand source is ruled out. We also consider that the overall lithology and up to 0.5 m bed thickness not to be the result of storms; a series of high frequency storm events is considered unlikely. The weight of the evidence in our opinion clearly indicates deposition by a series of tsunami waves. If correct, this has implications for “probabilistic” models of sea level peaks at least 6.6 m higher than present at stage 5e that use such data in their models (e. g., Kopp et al., 2009), at least for Oahu. Within about 2 km of the Kahe deposit, in a road cut at Ko Olina, there is another markedly similar high-energy, sandy basalt-bearing coral conglomerate sequence at 21 to 25 m elevation. There are at least two distinct beds about one meter in thickness, both gently seaward

  10. Can undersea voltage measurements detect tsunamis?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Manoj, C.; Kuvshinov, A.; Neetu, S.; Harinarayana, T.

    the temporal variations of these electric fields? To answer these questions, we use a barotropic tsunami model and a state-of-the-art 3-D EM induction code to simulate the electric and magnetic fields generated by the Indian Ocean Tsunami. We will first...). The 4 C. MANOJ et al.: TSUNAMI GENERATED ELECTRIC FIELDS solution allows for simulating electromagnetic (EM) field in a spherical models of the Earth with three-dimensional (3-D) distribution of electrical conductivity. These models consist of a number...

  11. Geological evidence of tsunamis and earthquakes at the Eastern Hellenic Arc: correlation with historical seismicity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerassimos Papadopoulos

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Sedimentary stratigraphy determined by trenching in Dalaman, south-western Turkey, revealed three sand layers at a distance of approximately 240 m from the shoreline and at elevations of +0.30, +0.55 and +0.90 cm. Storm surge action does not explain the features of these deposits that show instead typical characteristics of tsunami deposition. The sand layers correlate with historical tsunamis generated by large earthquakes which ruptured the eastern Hellenic Arc and Trench in 1303, 1481 and 1741. Accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating of a wood sample from layer II indicated deposition in AD 1473±46, which fits the 1481 event. From an estimated average alluvium deposition rate of approximately 0.13 cm/year, layers I and III were dated at 1322 and 1724, which may represent the large 1303 and 1741 tsunamis. The geological record of the 1303 key event is very poor; therefore, sand layer I perhaps represents an important geological signature of the 1303 tsunami. However, the strong tsunami reported to have been generated by the 1609 earthquake is missing from Dalaman stratigraphy: this underlines the sensitivity of tsunami geological signatures to various local factors. The 1303 earthquake ruptured the trench between the islands of Crete and Rhodes. For the earthquakes of 1481, 1609 and 1741 we suggested that they were very likely generated in the Rhodes Abyssal Plain where sea depths of up to approximately 4200 m, together with the thrust component of seismotectonics, favor tsunami generation. Sand dykes directed upwards from layer I to layer II indicated that the 1481 earthquake triggered liquefaction of sand layer I. The results substantially widen our knowledge about the historical earthquake and tsunami activity in the eastern Mediterranean basin.

  12. Modelling tsunami inundation for risk analysis at the Andaman Sea Coast of Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, G.; Kortenhaus, A.

    2009-04-01

    -wide available. However, to model tsunami-induced inundation for risk analysis and management purposes the accuracy of these data is not sufficient as the processes in the near-shore zone cannot be modelled accurately enough and the spatial resolution of the topography is weak. Moreover, the SRTM data provide a digital surface model which includes vegetation and buildings in the surface description. To improve the data basis additional bathymetric data were used in the near shore zone of the Phang Nga and Phuket coastlines and various remote sensing techniques as well as additional GPS measurements were applied to derive a high resolution topography from satellite and airborne data. Land use classifications and filter methods were developed to correct the digital surface models to digital elevation models. Simulations were then performed with a non-linear shallow water model to model the 2004 Asian Tsunami and to simulate possible future ones. Results of water elevation near the coast were compared with field measurements and observations, and the influence of the resolution of the topography on inundation patterns like water depth, velocity, dispersion and duration of the flood were analysed. The inundation simulation provides detailed hazard maps and is considered a reliable basis for risk assessment and risk zone mapping. Results are regarded vital for estimation of tsunami induced damages and evacuation planning. Results of the aforementioned simulations will be discussed during the conference. Differences of the numerical results using topographic data of different scales and modified by different post processing techniques will be analysed and explained. Further use of the results with respect to tsunami risk analysis and management will also be demonstrated.

  13. Numerical modelling and evacuation strategies for tsunami awareness: lessons from the 2012 Haida Gwaii Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Santos

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available On October 28, 2012, an earthquake occurred offshore Canada, with a magnitude Mw of 7.8, triggering a tsunami that propagated through the Pacific Ocean. The tsunami numerical model results show it would not be expected to generate widespread inundation on Hawaii. Yet, two hours after the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC issued a tsunami warning to the state of Hawaii. Since the state was hit by several tsunamis in the past, regular siren exercises, tsunami hazard maps and other prevention measures are available for public use, revealing that residents are well prepared regarding tsunami evacuation procedures. Nevertheless, residents and tourists evacuated mostly by car, and because of that, heavy traffic was reported, showing that it was a non-viable option for evacuation. The tsunami caused minor damages on the coastline, and several car accidents were reported, with one fatality. In recent years, there has been a remarkable interest in tsunami impacts. However, if risk planners seem to be very knowledgeable about how to avoid or mitigate their potential harmful effects, they seem to disregard its integration with other sectors of human activity and other social factors.

  14. Development of Tsunami Numerical Model Considering the Disaster Debris such as Cars, Ships and Collapsed Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozono, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

    2016-12-01

    A lot of debris by tsunami, such as cars, ships and collapsed buildings were generated in the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. It is useful for rescue and recovery after tsunami disaster to predict the amount and final position of disaster debris. The transport form of disaster debris varies as drifting, rolling and sliding. These transport forms need to be considered comprehensively in tsunami simulation. In this study, we focused on the following three points. Firstly, the numerical model considering various transport forms of disaster debris was developed. The proposed numerical model was compared with the hydraulic experiment by Okubo et al. (2004) in order to verify transport on the bottom surface such as rolling and sliding. Secondly, a numerical experiment considering transporting on the bottom surface and drifting was studied. Finally, the numerical model was applied for Kesennuma city where serious damage occurred by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. In this model, the influence of disaster debris was considered as tsunami flow energy loss. The hydraulic experiments conducted in a water tank which was 10 m long by 30 cm wide. The gate confined water in a storage tank, and acted as a wave generator. A slope was set at downstream section. The initial position of a block (width: 3.2 cm, density: 1.55 g/cm3) assuming the disaster debris was placed in front of the slope. The proposed numerical model simulated well the maximum transport distance and the final stop position of the block. In the second numerical experiment, the conditions were the same as the hydraulic experiment, except for the density of the block. The density was set to various values (from 0.30 to 4.20 g/cm3). This model was able to estimate various transport forms including drifting and sliding. In the numerical simulation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, the condition of buildings was modeled as follows: (i)the resistance on the bottom using Manning roughness coefficient (conventional method), and (ii)structure of

  15. Tsunami-induced boulder transport - combining physical experiments and numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oetjen, Jan; Engel, Max; May, Simon Matthias; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Brueckner, Helmut; Prasad Pudasaini, Shiva

    2016-04-01

    Coasts are crucial areas for living, economy, recreation, transportation, and various sectors of industry. Many of them are exposed to high-energy wave events. With regard to the ongoing population growth in low-elevation coastal areas, the urgent need for developing suitable management measures, especially for hazards like tsunamis, becomes obvious. These measures require supporting tools which allow an exact estimation of impact parameters like inundation height, inundation area, and wave energy. Focussing on tsunamis, geological archives can provide essential information on frequency and magnitude on a longer time scale in order to support coastal hazard management. While fine-grained deposits may quickly be altered after deposition, multi-ton coarse clasts (boulders) may represent an information source on past tsunami events with a much higher preservation potential. Applying numerical hydrodynamic coupled boulder transport models (BTM) is a commonly used approach to analyse characteristics (e.g. wave height, flow velocity) of the corresponding tsunami. Correct computations of tsunamis and the induced boulder transport can provide essential event-specific information, including wave heights, runup and direction. Although several valuable numerical models for tsunami-induced boulder transport exist (e. g. Goto et al., 2007; Imamura et al., 2008), some important basic aspects of both tsunami hydrodynamics and corresponding boulder transport have not yet been entirely understood. Therefore, our project aims at these questions in four crucial aspects of boulder transport by a tsunami: (i) influence of sediment load, (ii) influence of complex boulder shapes other than idealized rectangular shapes, (iii) momentum transfers between multiple boulders, and (iv) influence of non-uniform bathymetries and topographies both on tsunami and boulder. The investigation of these aspects in physical experiments and the correct implementation of an advanced model is an urgent need

  16. 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Runup Distribution and Damages around Yamada Bay, Iwate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okayasu, A.; Shimozono, T.; Sato, S.; Tajima, Y.; Liu, H.; Takagawa, T.; Fritz, H. M.

    2011-12-01

    On 11 March 2011, a magnitude Mw = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the coast of Japan's Tohoku region causing catastrophic damage and loss of life. A month later, distribution of inundation and run-up height for the tsunami was measured in and outside Yamada Bay locating at the middle of Iwate Prefecture. Yamada Bay has a narrow bay-mouth the width of which is approximately 1/4 of the bay width. The bay is surrounded by two peninsulas, Omoe and Funakoshi Peninsulas and locates in the rear of Funakoshi Peninsula for the epicenter. At eastern side of Omoe Peninsula which is exposed to the Pacific Ocean, the average tsunami height was 15 to 20m at the coast line. All villages there had very large run-up heights of more than 25m and houses at lower elevation were almost completely washed away. The highest run-up, around 40m with an inundation distance of 500 m, was measured at Aneyoshi Village. The village locates at the bottom of a small V-shape inlet which concentrates the energy of tsunamis and amplifies their height. Fortunately, the village itself had been moved to higher ground after severe damages brought by Meiji Sanriku (1896) and Showa Sanriku (1933) Tsunamis and had no loss of life by the 2011 Tsunami. At Funakoshi Peninsula, the south east side of which is facing to the epicenter, the average height of incoming tsunami was estimated to be about 15m. On the contrary, tsunami height inside Yamada Bay was much smaller, generally around 6 to 9m. The only exception was the base of Funakoshi Peninsula where tsunami coming from the other side came over the base of Peninsula and caused devastating damage to the area. The exposed areas south of Funakoshi Peninsula like Kirikiri had tsunami run-up of more than 15m. It is considered that the narrow bay-mouth reduced the tsunami height and Funakoshi Peninsula worked as a barrier for Yamada Bay. Yamada Town locating inside Yamada Bay however suffered a large loss of life. The ratio of dead or missing to its population is

  17. Maximum flood hazard assessment for OPG's deep geologic repository for low and intermediate level waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nimmrichter, P.; McClintock, J.; Peng, J.; Leung, H.

    2011-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) has entered a process to seek Environmental Assessment and licensing approvals to construct a Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for Low and Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste (L&ILW) near the existing Western Waste Management Facility (WWMF) at the Bruce nuclear site in the Municipality of Kincardine, Ontario. In support of the design of the proposed DGR project, maximum flood stages were estimated for potential flood hazard risks associated with coastal, riverine and direct precipitation flooding. The estimation of lake/coastal flooding for the Bruce nuclear site considered potential extreme water levels in Lake Huron, storm surge and seiche, wind waves, and tsunamis. The riverine flood hazard assessment considered the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) within the local watersheds, and within local drainage areas that will be directly impacted by the site development. A series of hydraulic models were developed, based on DGR project site grading and ditching, to assess the impact of a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) occurring directly at the DGR site. Overall, this flood assessment concluded there is no potential for lake or riverine based flooding and the DGR area is not affected by tsunamis. However, it was also concluded from the results of this analysis that the PMF in proximity to the critical DGR operational areas and infrastructure would be higher than the proposed elevation of the entrance to the underground works. This paper provides an overview of the assessment of potential flood hazard risks associated with coastal, riverine and direct precipitation flooding that was completed for the DGR development. (author)

  18. Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toshiaki Sakai; Tomoyoshi Takeda; Hiroshi Soraoka; Ken Yanagisawa; Tadashi Annaka

    2006-01-01

    It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present an example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)

  19. Great Earthquakes, Gigantic Landslides, and the Continuing Enigma of the April Fool's Tsunami of 1946

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, G. J.; Tryon, M. D.

    2005-12-01

    Paleotsunami studies can extend the record of great earthquakes back into prehistory, but what if the historical record itself is ambiguous? There is growing controversy about whether great earthquakes really occur along the Shumagin and Unimak segments of the Alaska-Aleutian system. The last great tsunami there was April 1, 1946, initiated by an earthquake whose magnitude has variously been reported from 7.1 to 8.5. Okal et al (BSSA, 2003) surveyed the near-field runup and concluded there were two sources: a magnitude 8.5 earthquake, which generated a Pacific-wide tsunami but which produced near-field runups no more than 18 m, and an earthquake-triggered slump whose tsunami reached 42 m at Scotch Cap Light near the western end of Unimak Island, but with runup rapidly decaying eastwards. An M8.5 earthquake, however, is incompatible with GPS strain measurements, which indicate that the maximum earthquake size off Unimak is M7.5. We have long contended that near- and far-field tsunamis were the result of a single earthquake-triggered debris avalanche down the Aleutian slope. In 2004 we were part of an expedition to map and explore the landslide, whose location seemed to be very tightly constrained by the known tsunami travel time to Scotch Cap Light. We found that neither our giant landslide nor Okal et al's smaller slump exist within 100 km of the presumed location. The explanation is obvious in retrospect: the tsunami was so large that it crossed the shallow Aleutian shelf as a bore travelling faster than the theoretical long-wave speed (which we had used to fix the location). Any landslide could only have occurred in an unsurveyed area farther east, off Unimak Bight, the central coast of Unimak Island. That location, however, conflicts with Okal et al's measurements of smaller runup along the Bight. We are now convinced that Okal et al confused the 1946 debris line with the lower line left by the 1957 tsunami. They were apparently unaware that the 1946 tsunami

  20. Tsunami Induced Scour Around Monopile Foundations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Eltard-Larsen, Bjarke; Baykal, Cüneyt

    While the run-up, inundation, and destructive potential of tsunami events has received considerable attention in the literature, the associated interaction with the sea bed i.e. boundary layer dynamics, induced sediment transport, and resultant sea bed morphology, has received relatively little...... specific attention. The present paper aims to further the understanding of tsunami-induced scour, by numerically investigating tsunami-induced flow and scour processes around a monopile structure, representative of those commonly utilized as offshore wind turbine foundations. The simulations are based...... a monopile at model (laboratory) spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, prior to conducting such numerical simulations involving tsunami-induced scour, it is necessary to first establish a methodology for maintaining similarity of model and full field scales. To achieve hydrodynamic similarity we...

  1. Tsunami Induced Scour Around Monopile Foundations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eltard-Larsen, Bjarke; Fuhrman, David R.; Baykal, Cüneyt

    2017-01-01

    A fully-coupled (hydrodynamic and morphologic) numerical model is presented, and utilized for the simulation of tsunami-induced scour around a monopile structure, representative of those commonly utilized as offshore wind turbine foundations at moderate depths i.e. for depths less than 30 m...... a steady current, where a generally excellent match with experimentally-based results is found. A methodology for maintaining and assessing hydrodynamic and morphologic similarity between field and (laboratory) model-scale tsunami events is then presented, combining diameter-based Froude number similarity...... with that based on the dimensionless wave boundary layer thickness-to-monopile diameter ratio. This methodology is utilized directly in the selection of governing tsunami wave parameters (i.e. velocity magnitude and period) used for subsequent simulation within the numerical model, with the tsunami-induced flow...

  2. Hydrophysical manifestations of the Indian ocean tsunami

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.; Rao, B.P.

    described in detail by several authors. This chapter summarises the results of our investigations on the hydrophysical manifestations (salinity and temperature, coastal currents, internal waves, etc.) of the tsunami on the coastal environments in India...

  3. The Mauritius and Indian Tsunami Case Study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nafiisah

    such unforeseen disasters in order to alleviate sufferings and to reduce loss of lives. Nowadays .... up an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (I.O.T.W.S). ... and other natural disasters like floods, typhoons, hurricanes, and.

  4. Standardized procedure for tsunami PRA by AESJ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Ebisawa, Katsumi

    2013-01-01

    After Fukushima Accident (March 11, 2011), the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) started to develop the standard of Tsunami Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for nuclear power plants in May 2011. As Japan is one of the countries with frequent earthquakes, a great deal of efforts has been made in the field of seismic research since the early stage. To our regret, the PRA procedures guide for tsunami has not yet been developed although the importance is held in mind of the PRA community. Accordingly, AESJ established a standard to specify the standardized procedure for tsunami PRA considering the results of investigation into the concept, the requirements that should have and the concrete methods regarding tsunami PRA referring the opinions of experts in the associated fields in December 2011 (AESJ-SC-RK004:2011). (author)

  5. Tsunamis and Hurricanes A Mathematical Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Cap, Ferdinand

    2006-01-01

    Tsunamis and hurricanes have had a devastating impact on the population living near the coast during the year 2005. The calculation of the power and intensity of tsunamis and hurricanes are of great importance not only for engineers and meteorologists but also for governments and insurance companies. This book presents new research on the mathematical description of tsunamis and hurricanes. A combination of old and new approaches allows to derive a nonlinear partial differential equation of fifth order describing the steepening up and the propagation of tsunamis. The description includes dissipative terms and does not contain singularities or two valued functions. The equivalence principle of solutions of nonlinear large gas dynamics waves and of solutions of water wave equations will be used. An extension of the continuity equation by a source term due to evaporation rates of salt seawater will help to understand hurricanes. Detailed formula, tables and results of the calculations are given.

  6. Annotated Tsunami bibliography: 1962-1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pararas-Carayannis, G.; Dong, B.; Farmer, R.

    1982-08-01

    This compilation contains annotated citations to nearly 3000 tsunami-related publications from 1962 to 1976 in English and several other languages. The foreign-language citations have English titles and abstracts

  7. A rapid estimation of near field tsunami run-up

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riqueime, Sebastian; Fuentes, Mauricio; Hayes, Gavin; Campos, Jamie

    2015-01-01

    Many efforts have been made to quickly estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori.However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify the knowledge of the earthquake source. Here, we show how to predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution, that was specifically designed for subduction zones with a well defined geometry, i.e., Chile, Japan, Nicaragua, Alaska. The main idea of this work is to provide a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for speed. The solutions we present for large earthquakes appear promising. Here, run-up models are computed for: The 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua Earthquake, the 2001 Mw 8.4 Perú Earthquake, the 2003Mw 8.3 Hokkaido Earthquake, the 2007 Mw 8.1 Perú Earthquake, the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. The maximum run-up estimations are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 9 m for Nicaragua, 8 m for Perú (2001), 32 m for Maule, 41 m for Tohoku, and 4.1 m for Iquique. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first minutes after the occurrence of similar events. Thus, such calculations will provide faster run-up information than is available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases or past events of pre-modeled seismic sources.

  8. How soon is too soon? When to cancel a warning after a damaging tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, G. J.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Weinstein, S.; Richards, K.

    2012-12-01

    Following an earthquake a tsunami warning center (TWC) must determine if a coastal evacuation is necessary and must do so fast enough for the warning to be useful to affected coastlines. Once a damaging tsunami has arrived, the TWC must decide when to cancel its warning, a task often more challenging than the initial hazard assessment. Here we demonstrate the difficulties by investigating the impact of the Tohoku tsunami of 11 March 2011 on the State of Hawaii, which relies on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) for tsunami hazard guidance. PTWC issued a Tsunami Watch for Hawaii at 10 March 1956 HST (10 minutes after the earthquake) and upgraded to a Tsunami Warning at 2131 HST. The tsunami arrived in Hawaii just before 0300 HST the next day, reached a maximum runup of over 5 m, and did roughly $50 million in damage throughout the state. PTWC downgraded the Warning to an Advisory at 0730 HST, and canceled the Advisory at 1140 HST. The timing of the downgrade was appropriate—by then it was safe for coastal residents to re-enter the evacuation zone but not to enter the water—but in retrospect PTWC cancelled its Advisory too early. By late morning tide gauges throughout the state had all registered maximum wave heights of 30 cm or less for a couple of hours, so PTWC cancelled. The Center was unaware, however, of ocean behavior at locations without instruments. At Ma'alaea Harbor on the Island of Maui, for example, sea level oscillations exposed the harbor bottom every 20 minutes for several hours after the cancellation. At Waikiki on Oahu, lifeguards rescued 25 swimmers (who had either ignored or were unaware of the cancellation message's caution about hazardous currents) in the hours after the cancellation and performed CPR on one near-drowning victim. Fortunately, there were no deaths. Because of dangerous surges, ocean safety officials closed Hanauma Bay, a popular snorkeling spot on Oahu, for a full day after the tsunami hit. They reassessed the bay the

  9. Generation of deterministic tsunami hazard maps in the Bay of Cadiz, south-west Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Otero, L.; Olabarrieta, M.; González, M.; Carreño, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Medina, R.; Lima, V.

    2009-04-01

    free surface elevation, maximum water depth, maximum current speed, maximum Froude number and maximum impact forces (hydrostatic and dynamic forces). The fault rupture and sea bottom displacement has been computed by means of the Okada equations. As result, a set of more than 100 deterministic thematic maps have been created in a GIS environment incorporating geographical data and high resolution orthorectified satellite images. These thematic maps form an atlas of inundation maps that will be distributed to different government authorities and civil protection and emergency agencies. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the EU under the frame of the European Project TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk And Strategies For the European Region), 6th Framework Programme.

  10. Tsunami Source Identification on the 1867 Tsunami Event Based on the Impact Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, T. R.

    2014-12-01

    The 1867 Keelung tsunami event has drawn significant attention from people in Taiwan. Not only because the location was very close to the 3 nuclear power plants which are only about 20km away from the Taipei city but also because of the ambiguous on the tsunami sources. This event is unique in terms of many aspects. First, it was documented on many literatures with many languages and with similar descriptions. Second, the tsunami deposit was discovered recently. Based on the literatures, earthquake, 7-meter tsunami height, volcanic smoke, and oceanic smoke were observed. Previous studies concluded that this tsunami was generated by an earthquake with a magnitude around Mw7.0 along the Shanchiao Fault. However, numerical results showed that even a Mw 8.0 earthquake was not able to generate a 7-meter tsunami. Considering the steep bathymetry and intense volcanic activities along the Keelung coast, one reasonable hypothesis is that different types of tsunami sources were existed, such as the submarine landslide or volcanic eruption. In order to confirm this scenario, last year we proposed the Tsunami Reverse Tracing Method (TRTM) to find the possible locations of the tsunami sources. This method helped us ruling out the impossible far-field tsunami sources. However, the near-field sources are still remain unclear. This year, we further developed a new method named 'Impact Intensity Analysis' (IIA). In the IIA method, the study area is divided into a sequence of tsunami sources, and the numerical simulations of each source is conducted by COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) tsunami model. After that, the resulting wave height from each source to the study site is collected and plotted. This method successfully helped us to identify the impact factor from the near-field potential sources. The IIA result (Fig. 1) shows that the 1867 tsunami event was a multi-source event. A mild tsunami was trigged by a Mw7.0 earthquake, and then followed by the submarine

  11. Mega Tsunamis of the World Ocean and Their Implication for the Tsunami Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusiakov, V. K.

    2014-12-01

    Mega tsunamis are the strongest tsunamigenic events of tectonic origin that are characterized by run-up heights up to 40-50 m measured along a considerable part of the coastline (up to 1000 km). One of the most important features of mega-tsunamis is their ability to cross the entire oceanic basin and to cause an essential damage to its opposite coast. Another important feature is their ability to penetrate into the marginal seas (like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea) and cause dangerous water level oscillations along the parts of the coast, which are largely protected by island arcs against the impact of the strongest regional tsunamis. Among all known historical tsunamis (nearly 2250 events during the last 4000 years) they represent only a small fraction (less than 1%) however they are responsible for more than half the total tsunami fatalities and a considerable part of the overall tsunami damage. The source of all known mega tsunamis is subduction submarine earthquakes with magnitude 9.0 or higher having a return period from 200-300 years to 1000-1200 years. The paper presents a list of 15 mega tsunami events identified so far in historical catalogs with their basic source parameters, near-field and far-field impact effects and their generation and propagation features. The far-field impact of mega tsunamis is largely controlled by location and orientation of their earthquake source as well as by deep ocean bathymetry features. We also discuss the problem of the long-term tsunami hazard assessment when the occurrence of mega tsunamis is taken into account.

  12. Our fingerprint in tsunami deposits - anthropogenic markers as a new tsunami identification tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellanova, P.; Schwarzbauer, J.; Reicherter, K. R.; Jaffe, B. E.; Szczucinski, W.

    2016-12-01

    Several recent geochemical studies have focused on the use of inorganic indicators to evaluate a tsunami origin of sediment in the geologic record. However, tsunami transport not only particulate sedimentary material from marine to terrestrial areas (and vice versa), but also associated organic material. Thus, tsunami deposits may be characterized by organic-geochemical parameters. Recently increased attention has been given to the use of natural organic substances (biomarkers) to identify tsunami deposits. To date no studies have been made investigating anthropogenic organic indicators in recent tsunami deposits. Anthropogenic organic markers are more sensitive and reliable markers compared to other tracers due to their specific molecular structural properties and higher source specificity. In this study we evaluate whether anthropogenic substances are useful indicators for determining whether an area has been inundated by a tsunami. We chose the Sendai Plain and Sanemoura and Oppa Bays, Japan, as study sites because the destruction of infrastructure by flooding released environmental pollutants (e.g., fuels, fats, tarmac, plastics, heavy metals, etc.) contaminating large areas of the coastal zone during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Organic compounds from the tsunami deposits are extracted from tsunami sediment and compared with the organic signature of unaffected pre-tsunami samples using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GS/MS) based analyses. For the anthropogenic markers, compounds such as soil derived pesticides (DDT), source specific PAHs, halogenated aromatics from industrial sources were detected and used to observe the inland extent and the impact of the Tohoku-oki tsunami on the coastal region around Sendai.

  13. Correlation of Fault Size, Moment Magnitude, and Tsunami Height to Proved Paleo-tsunami Data in Sulawesi Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julius, A. M.; Pribadi, S.

    2016-02-01

    Sulawesi (Indonesia) island is located in the meeting of three large plates i.e. Indo-Australia, Pacific, and Eurasia. This configuration surely make high risk on tsunami by earthquake and by sea floor landslide. NOAA and Russia Tsunami Laboratory show more than 20 tsunami data recorded in Sulawesi since 1820. Based on this data, determine of correlation between all tsunami parameter need to be done to proved all event in the past. Complete data of magnitudes, fault sizes and tsunami heights in this study sourced from NOAA and Russia Tsunami database and completed with Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) catalog. This study aims to find correlation between fault area, moment magnitude, and tsunami height by simple regression in Sulawesi. The step of this research are data collect, processing, and regression analysis. Result shows very good correlation, each moment magnitude, tsunami heights, and fault parameter i.e. long, wide, and slip are correlate linier. In increasing of fault area, the tsunami height and moment magnitude value also increase. In increasing of moment magnitude, tsunami height also increase. This analysis is enough to proved all Sulawesi tsunami parameter catalog in NOAA, Russia Tsunami Laboratory and PTWC are correct. Keyword: tsunami, magnitude, height, fault

  14. Modeling tsunamis induced by retrogressive submarine landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, F.; Kim, J.; Harbitz, C. B.

    2015-12-01

    Enormous submarine landslides having volumes up to thousands of km3 and long run-out may cause tsunamis with widespread effects. Clay-rich landslides, such as Trænadjupet and Storegga offshore Norway commonly involve retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms that affect the tsunami generation. Therefore, such landslides may involve a large amount of smaller blocks. As a consequence, the failure mechanisms and release rate of the individual blocks are of importance for the tsunami generation. Previous attempts to model the tsunami generation due to retrogressive landslides are few, and limited to idealized conditions. Here, we review the basic effects of retrogression on tsunamigenesis in simple geometries. To this end, two different methods are employed for the landslide motion, a series block with pre-scribed time lags and kinematics, and a dynamic retrogressive model where the inter-block time lag is determined by the model. The effect of parameters such as time lag on wave-height, wave-length, and dispersion are discussed. Finally, we discuss how the retrogressive effects may have influenced the tsunamis due to large landslides such as the Storegga slide. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under grant number 231252 (Project TsunamiLand) and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

  15. Tsunami simulation method initiated from waveforms observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami forecast; Applied for 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Yuichiro

    2017-04-01

    After tsunami disaster due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake, improvement of the tsunami forecast has been an urgent issue in Japan. National Institute of Disaster Prevention is installing a cable network system of earthquake and tsunami observation (S-NET) at the ocean bottom along the Japan and Kurile trench. This cable system includes 125 pressure sensors (tsunami meters) which are separated by 30 km. Along the Nankai trough, JAMSTEC already installed and operated the cable network system of seismometers and pressure sensors (DONET and DONET2). Those systems are the most dense observation network systems on top of source areas of great underthrust earthquakes in the world. Real-time tsunami forecast has depended on estimation of earthquake parameters, such as epicenter, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. Recently, tsunami forecast method has been developed using the estimation of tsunami source from tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensors. However, when we have many pressure sensors separated by 30km on top of the source area, we do not need to estimate the tsunami source or earthquake source to compute tsunami. Instead, we can initiate a tsunami simulation from those dense tsunami observed data. Observed tsunami height differences with a time interval at the ocean bottom pressure sensors separated by 30 km were used to estimate tsunami height distribution at a particular time. In our new method, tsunami numerical simulation was initiated from those estimated tsunami height distribution. In this paper, the above method is improved and applied for the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake. Tsunami source model of the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake estimated using observed tsunami waveforms, coseimic deformation observed by GPS and ocean bottom sensors by Gusman et al. (2012) is used in this study. The ocean surface deformation is computed from the source model and used as an initial condition of tsunami

  16. A culture of tsunami preparedness and applying knowledge from recent tsunamis affecting California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    It is the mission of the California Tsunami Program to ensure public safety by protecting lives and property before, during, and after a potentially destructive or damaging tsunami. In order to achieve this goal, the state has sought first to use finite funding resources to identify and quantify the tsunami hazard using the best available scientific expertise, modeling, data, mapping, and methods at its disposal. Secondly, it has been vital to accurately inform the emergency response community of the nature of the threat by defining inundation zones prior to a tsunami event and leveraging technical expertise during ongoing tsunami alert notifications (specifically incoming wave heights, arrival times, and the dangers of strong currents). State scientists and emergency managers have been able to learn and apply both scientific and emergency response lessons from recent, distant-source tsunamis affecting coastal California (from Samoa in 2009, Chile in 2010, and Japan in 2011). Emergency managers must understand and plan in advance for specific actions and protocols for each alert notification level provided by the NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Finally the state program has provided education and outreach information via a multitude of delivery methods, activities, and end products while keeping the message simple, consistent, and focused. The goal is a culture of preparedness and understanding of what to do in the face of a tsunami by residents, visitors, and responsible government officials. We provide an update of results and findings made by the state program with support of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program through important collaboration with other U.S. States, Territories and agencies. In 2009 the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) completed tsunami inundation modeling and mapping for all low-lying, populated coastal areas of California to assist local jurisdictions on

  17. The Components of Community Awareness and Preparedness; its Effects on the Reduction of Tsunami Vulnerability and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, Mehmet; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet

    2017-04-01

    . Furthermore, the components of the awareness and preparedness parameter n, is widely investigated in global and local practices by using the method of categorization to determine different levels for different coastal metropolitan areas with different cultures and with different hazard perception. Moreover, consistency between the theoretical maximum and practical applications of parameter n is estimated, discussed and presented. In the applications mainly the Bakirkoy district of Istanbul is analyzed and the results are presented. Acknowledgements: Partial support by 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAPC-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK, Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

  18. Tsunamis

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Wind waves are deep-water waves because they are normally found in ... shallow water waves observed over the open sea is much weaker. For linear waves, it ..... processes of reflection, refraction, and trapping that the tsuna- mis reached the ...

  19. Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  20. The raising of tsunami-wall based on tsunami evaluation at Onagawa nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Jun; Hirata, Kazuo

    2017-01-01

    Onagawa nuclear power station (Onagawa NPS) is located on the Pacific coast of Tohoku district where several massive tsunamis had attacked in the past. Based on this natural condition, tsunami safety measures were planned and carried out since the planning of the unit 1. For example, we set appropriate site height for protecting important facilities from tsunamis. As a result, in the massive tsunami which was caused by the 2011 off the Pacific Tohoku Earthquake (3.11 earthquake) on March 11, 2011, all units of Onagawa NPS achieved the cold shutdown. After 3.11 earthquake, we revaluated tsunami considering latest knowledge. In the tsunami re-evaluation, we carried out documents investigation about all tsunami source factors and set the standard fault models which were thought to be appropriate as tsunami wave sources. As a result, the highest water level at the site front is evaluated as 23.1 m. Based on this examination result, we decided to raise the existing seawall (approximately 17 m) to 29 m in consideration of margin and so on. Because the space of the site was limited, we planned a combination of steel-pipe type vertical wall (L = 680 m) and embankment (L = 120 m) due to cement improved soil. (author)

  1. Geological evidence and sediment transport modelling for the 1946 and 1960 tsunamis in Shinmachi, Hilo, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chagué, Catherine; Sugawara, Daisuke; Goto, Kazuhisa; Goff, James; Dudley, Walter; Gadd, Patricia

    2018-02-01

    The Japanese community of Shinmachi, established on low-lying land between downtown Hilo and Waiakea, Hawaii, was obliterated by the 1946 Aleutian tsunami but was rebuilt, only to be destroyed again by the 1960 Chilean tsunami. The aim of this study was to find out if any geological evidence of these well documented events had been preserved in the sedimentary record in Wailoa River State Park, which replaced Shinmachi after the 1960 tsunami. This was achieved by collecting cores in the park and performing sedimentological, chronological and geochemical analyses, the latter also processed by principal component analysis. Sediment transport modelling was carried out for both tsunamis, to infer the source of the sediment and areas of deposition on land. The field survey revealed two distinct units within peat and soil, a thin lower unit composed of weathered basalt fragments within mud (Unit 1) and an upper unit dominated by fine volcanic sand within fine silt exhibiting subtle upward fining and coarsening (Unit 2, consisting of Unit 2A and Unit 2B), although these two anomalous units only occur on the western shore of Waiakea Mill Pond. Analysis with an ITRAX core scanner shows that Unit 1 is characterised by high Mn, Fe, Rb, La and Ce counts, combined with elevated magnetic susceptibility. Based on its chemical and sedimentological characteristics, Unit 1 is attributed to a flood event in Wailoa River that occurred around 1520-1660 CE, most probably as a result of a tropical storm. The sharp lower contact of Unit 2 coincides with the appearance of arsenic, contemporaneous with an increase in Ca, Sr, Si, Ti, K, Zr, Mn, Fe, La and Ce. In this study, As is used as a chronological and source material marker, as it is known to have been released into Wailoa River Estuary and Waiakea Mill Pond by the Canec factory between 1932 and 1963. Thus, not only the chemical and sedimentological evidence but also sediment transport modelling, corroborating the historical record

  2. Field Survey of the 17 June 2017 Landslide and Tsunami in Karrat Fjord, Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Giachetti, T.; Anderson, S.; Gauthier, D.

    2017-12-01

    On 17 June 2017 a massive landslide generated tsunami impacted Karrat Fjord and the Uummannaq fjord system located some 280 km north of Ilulissat in western Greenland. The eastern of two easily recognized landslides detached completely and fell approximately 1 km to sea level, before plunging into the Karrat Fjord and generating a tsunami within the fjord system. The landslide generated tsunami washed 4 victims and several houses into the fjord at Nuugaatsiaq, about 30 km west of the landslide. Eyewitnesses at Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit recorded the tsunami inundation on videos. The active western landslide features a back scarp and large cracks, and therefore remains a threat in Karrat Fjord. The villages of Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit remain evacuated. The Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) survey team deployed to Greenland from July 6 to 9, 2017. The reconnaissance on July 8 involved approximately 800 km of helicopter flight and landings in several key locations. The survey focused on the landslides and coastlines within 30 km of the landslide in either fjord direction. The aerial reconnaissance collected high quality oblique aerial photogrammetry (OAP) of the landslide, scarp, and debris avalanche track. The 3D model of the landslide provides the ability to study the morphology of the slope on July 8, it provides a baseline model for future surveys, and it can be used to compare to earlier imagery to estimate what happened on June 17. Change detection using prior satellite imagery indicates an approximate 55 million m3 total landslide volume of which 45 million m3 plunged into the fjord from elevations up to 1200 m above the water surface. The ground based tsunami survey documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure, and impact on the natural and glacial environment. Perishable high-water marks include changes in vegetation and damage to

  3. Introduction to "Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean: 2011-2012"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Borrero, Jose C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2014-12-01

    With this volume of the Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH) topical issue "Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean: 2011-2012", we are pleased to present 21 new papers discussing tsunami events occurring in this two-year span. Owing to the profound impact resulting from the unique crossover of a natural and nuclear disaster, research into the 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami continues; here we present 12 papers related to this event. Three papers report on detailed field survey results and updated analyses of the wave dynamics based on these surveys. Two papers explore the effects of the Tohoku tsunami on the coast of Russia. Three papers discuss the tsunami source mechanism, and four papers deal with tsunami hydrodynamics in the far field or over the wider Pacific basin. In addition, a series of five papers presents studies of four new tsunami and earthquake events occurring over this time period. This includes tsunamis in El Salvador, the Philippines, Japan and the west coast of British Columbia, Canada. Finally, we present four new papers on tsunami science, including discussions on tsunami event duration, tsunami wave amplitude, tsunami energy and tsunami recurrence.

  4. Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

  5. The tsunami probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plant (3). Outline of tsunami fragility analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihara, Yoshinori

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) standard was issued in February 2012 by Standard Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ). This article detailed tsunami fragility analysis, which calculated building and structure damage probability contributing core damage and consisted of five evaluation steps: (1) selection of evaluated element and damage mode, (2) selection of evaluation procedure, (3) evaluation of actual stiffness, (4) evaluation of actual response and (5) evaluation of fragility (damage probability and others). As an application example of the standard, calculation results of tsunami fragility analysis investigation by tsunami PRA subcommittee of AESJ were shown reflecting latest knowledge of damage state caused by wave force and others acted by tsunami from the 'off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake'. (T. Tanaka)

  6. Preliminary assessment of the impacts and effects of the South Pacific tsunami of September 2009 in Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominey-Howes, D.

    2009-12-01

    The September 2009 tsunami was a regional South Pacific event of enormous significance. Our UNESCO-IOC ITST Samoa survey used a simplified version of a ‘coupled human-environment systems framework’ (Turner et al., 2003) to investigate the impacts and effects of the tsunami in Samoa. Further, the framework allowed us to identify those factors that affected the vulnerability and resilience of the human-environment system before, during and after the tsunami - a global first. Key findings (unprocessed) include: Maximum run-up exceeded 14 metres above sea level Maximum inundation (at right angles to the shore) was approximately 400 metres Maximum inundation with the wave running parallel with the shore (but inland), exceeded 700 metres Buildings sustained varying degrees of damage Damage was correlated with depth of tsunami flow, velocity, condition of foundations, quality of building materials used, quality of workmanship, adherence to the building code and so on Buildings raised even one metre above the surrounding land surface suffered much less damage Plants, trees and mangroves reduced flow velocity and flow depth - leading to greater chances of human survival and lower levels of building damage The tsunami has left a clear and distinguishable geological record in terms of sediments deposited in the coastal landscape The clear sediment layer associated with this tsunami suggests that older (and prehistoric) tsunamis can be identified, helping to answer questions about frequency and magnitude of tsunamis The tsunami caused widespread erosion of the coastal and beach zones but this damage will repair itself naturally and quickly The tsunami has had clear impacts on ecosystems and these are highly variable Ecosystems will repair themselves naturally and are unlikely to preserve long-term impacts It is clear that some plant (tree) species are highly resilient and provided immediate places for safety during the tsunami and resources post-tsunami People of Samoa are

  7. Pemetaan Risiko Tsunami terhadap Bangunan secara Kuantitatif

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Totok Wahyu Wibowo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRAK Tsunami merupakan bencana alam yang sebagian besar kejadiannya dipicu oleh gempabumi dasar laut. Dampak kerugian tsunami terhadap lingkungan pesisir antara lain rusaknya properti, struktur bangunan, infrastruktur dan dapat mengakibatkan gangguan ekonomi. Bencana tsunami memiliki keunikan dibandingkan bencana lainnya, karena memiliki kemungkinan sangat kecil tetapi dengan ancaman yang tinggi. Paradigma Pengurangan Risiko Bencana (PRB yang berkembang dalam beberapa tahun terakhir yang menekankan bahwa risiko merupakan hal utama dalam penentuan strategi terhadap bencana. Kelurahan Ploso, merupakan salah satu lokasi di Kabupaten Pacitan yang berpotensi terkena bencana tsunami. Pemetaan risiko bangunan dilakukan dengan metode kuantitatif, yang mana disusun atas peta kerentanan dan peta harga bangunan. Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability 3 (PTVA-3 diadopsi untuk pemetaan kerentanan. Data harga bangunan diperoleh dari kombinasi kerja lapangan dan analisis Sistem Informasi Geografis (SIG. Hasil pemetaan risiko menunjukkan bahwa Lingkungan Barehan memiliki risiko kerugian paling tinggi diantara semua lingkungan di Kelurahan Ploso. Hasil ini dapat dijadikan sebagai acuan untuk penentuan strategi pengurangan risiko bencana di Kelurahan Ploso. ABSTRACT Tsunami is a natural disaster whose occurrences are mostly triggered by submarine earthquakes. The impact of tsunami on coastal environment includes damages to properties, building structures, and infrastructures as well as economic disruptions. Compared to other disasters, tsunamis are deemed unique because they have a very small occurrence probability but with a very high threat. The paradigm of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR that has developed in the last few years stresses risk as the primary factor to determine disaster strategies. Ploso Sub-district, an area in Pacitan Regency, is potentially affected by tsunamis. The risk mapping of the buildings in this sub-district was created using a quantitative

  8. Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.

    2013-12-01

    In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.

  9. THE SAMOA TSUNAMI OF 29 SEPTEMBER 2009 Early Warning and Inundation Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Franchello

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available On 29 September 2009 at 17:48:11 UTC, a large earthquake of magnitude 8 struck off-shore of the Samoa Islands and generated a large tsunami that destroyed several villages and caused more than 160 fatalities. This report first presents the characteristics of the earthquake and discusses the best estimations for the fault parameters, which are the necessary input data for the hydrodynamic tsunami calculations. Then, the assessment of the near-real time systems invoked by the Global Disasters Alert and Coordination System (GDACS1 and the post-event calculations are performed, making comparisons with the observed tidal measurements and post-event survey. It was found that the most severely damaged locations are the Southern section of the Western Samoa Islands, Tutuila Isl in American Samoa and Niuatoputapu Isle in Tonga. This is in agreement with the locations indicated by the Red Cross as the most affected and with the results of the post-tsunami surveys. Furthermore, an attempt was made to map the inundation events using more detailed digital elevation models (DEM and hydrodynamic modelling with good results. The flooded areas for which we had satellite images and post-tsunami surveys confirm the inundated areas identified correctly by the hydrodynamic model. Indications are given on the DEM grid size needed for the different simulations.

  10. The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

    2014-12-10

    Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

  11. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2017-08-01

    Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  12. Morehead City, North Carolina Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Morehead City, North Carolina Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  13. Nawiliwili, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Nawiliwili, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  14. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-01-01

    parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while

  15. Neah Bay, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Neah Bay, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  16. Bar Harbor, ME Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Bar Harbor, Maine Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  17. Sitka, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sitka, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  18. Christiansted, Virgin Islands Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Christiansted, Virgin Islands Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  19. Arena Cove, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arena Cove, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  20. Atlantic City, New Jersey Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Atlantic City, New Jersey Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  1. Crescent City, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Crescent City, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  2. Newport, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Newport, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  3. Wake Island Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Wake Island Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  4. Garibaldi, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Garibaldi, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  5. Keauhou, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Keauhou, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  6. Charlotte Amalie, Virgin Islands Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Charlotte Amalie, Virgin Islands Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami...

  7. Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.

    2014-01-01

    The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

  8. Evaluation of tsunami risk in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zahibo

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to give the preliminary estimates of the tsunami risks for the Lesser Antilles. We investigated the available data of the tsunamis in the French West Indies using the historical data and catalogue of the tsunamis in the Lesser Antilles. In total, twenty-four (24 tsunamis were recorded in this area for last 400 years; sixteen (16 events of the seismic origin, five (5 events of volcanic origin and three (3 events of unknown source. Most of the tsunamigenic earthquakes (13 occurred in the Caribbean, and three tsunamis were generated during far away earthquakes (near the coasts of Portugal and Costa Rica. The estimates of tsunami risk are based on a preliminary analysis of the seismicity of the Caribbean area and the historical data of tsunamis. In particular, we investigate the occurrence of historical extreme runup tsunami data on Guadeloupe, and these data are revised after a survey in Guadeloupe.

  9. Westport, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Westport, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  10. Pago Pago, American Samoa Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Pago Pago, American Samoa Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  11. Daytona Beach, Florida Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Daytona Beach, Florida Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  12. Lahaina, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Lahaina, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  13. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — As part of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), the Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART(R)) Project is an ongoing effort to...

  14. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  15. Fajardo, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Fajardo, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  16. Florence, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Florence, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  17. Ponce, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ponce, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  18. Shemya, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Shemya, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  19. Key West, Florida Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Key West, Florida Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  20. Los Angeles, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Los Angeles, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  1. CO-OPS 1-minute Raw Tsunami Water Level Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CO-OPS has been involved with tsunami warning and mitigation since the Coast and Geodetic Survey started the Tsunami Warning System in 1948 to provide warnings to...

  2. Montauk, New York Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Montauk, New York Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  3. Port Angeles, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port Angeles, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  4. The 15 August 2007 Peru tsunami runup observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Borrero, Jose C.; Broncano, Pablo; Ortega, Erick

    2008-05-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts to ensure successful self-evacuation.

  5. Kodiak, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kodiak, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  6. Virginia Beach Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virginia Beach, Virginia Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  7. Sand Point, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sand Point, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  8. Ocean City, Maryland Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ocean City, Maryland Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  9. Cordova, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Cordova, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  10. Kahului, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kahului, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  11. Nantucket, Massachusetts Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Nantucket, Massachusetts Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  12. Unalaska, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Unalaska, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  13. Port Orford, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port Orford, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  14. Kailua-Kona, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kailua-Kona, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  15. Seward, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Seward, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  16. Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Seaside, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  17. Apra Harbor, Guam Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Apra Harbor, Guam Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  18. Kihei, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kihei, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  19. Adak, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Adak, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  20. Arecibo, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arecibo, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  1. Santa Barbara, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Santa Barbara, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  2. San Juan, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The San Juan, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  3. Point Reyes, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Point Reyes, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  4. Port San Luis, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port San Luis, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  5. Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  6. Eureka, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Eureka, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  7. Palm Beach, Florida Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Palm Beach, Florida Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  8. Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  9. Toke Point, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Toke Point, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  10. Hanalei, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Hanalei, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  11. Homer, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Homer, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  12. Projected inundations on the South African coast by tsunami waves

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hayley.Cawthra

    wind waves and swells, and because of its relatively short period, .... Inundation modelling attempts to recreate the tsunami generation in deep or ... The preservation of tsunami deposits in the coastal geological record is a function of the.

  13. Nikolski, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Nikolski, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  14. Monterey, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Monterey, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  15. Port Alexander, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port Alexander, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  16. San Francisco, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The San Francisco, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  17. La Push, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The La Push, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  18. Elfin Cove, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Elfin Cove, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  19. Haleiwa, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Haleiwa, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  20. British Columbia, Canada Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The British Columbia, Canada Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  1. Hilo, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Hilo, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  2. Savannah, Georgia Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Savannah, Georgia Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  3. Chignik, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Chignik, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  4. Site-specific seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: performances and potential applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Volpe, Manuela; Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Orefice, Simone; Graziani, Laura; Brizuela, Beatriz; Smedile, Alessandra; Romano, Fabrizio; De Martini, Paolo Marco; Maramai, Alessandra; Piatanesi, Alessio; Pantosti, Daniela

    2017-04-01

    Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) provides probabilities to exceed different thresholds of tsunami hazard intensity, at a specific site or region and in a given time span, for tsunamis caused by seismic sources. Results obtained by SPTHA (i.e., probabilistic hazard curves and inundation maps) represent a very important input to risk analyses and land use planning. However, the large variability of source parameters implies the definition of a huge number of potential tsunami scenarios, whose omission could lead to a biased analysis. Moreover, tsunami propagation from source to target requires the use of very expensive numerical simulations. At regional scale, the computational cost can be reduced using assumptions on the tsunami modeling (i.e., neglecting non-linear effects, using coarse topo-bathymetric meshes, empirically extrapolating maximum wave heights on the coast). On the other hand, moving to local scale, a much higher resolution is required and such assumptions drop out, since detailed inundation maps require significantly greater computational resources. In this work we apply a multi-step method to perform a site-specific SPTHA which can be summarized in the following steps: i) to perform a regional hazard assessment to account for both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the seismic source, by combining the use of an event tree and an ensemble modeling technique; ii) to apply a filtering procedure which use a cluster analysis to define a significantly reduced number of representative scenarios contributing to the hazard of a specific target site; iii) to perform high resolution numerical simulations only for these representative scenarios and for a subset of near field sources placed in very shallow waters and/or whose coseismic displacements induce ground uplift or subsidence at the target. The method is applied to three target areas in the Mediterranean located around the cities of Milazzo (Italy), Thessaloniki (Greece) and

  5. Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2015-04-01

    Accurate earthquake source parameters are essential for any tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation, including early warning systems. Complex tectonic setting makes the a priori accurate assumptions of earthquake source parameters difficult and characterization of the faulting type is a challenge. Information on tsunamigenic sources is of crucial importance in the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas, especially considering the short arrival times and lack of offshore sea-level measurements. In addition, the scientific community have had to abandon the paradigm of a ''maximum earthquake'' predictable from simple tectonic parameters (Ruff and Kanamori, 1980) in the wake of the 2004 Sumatra event (Okal, 2010) and one of the lessons learnt from the 2011 Tohoku event was that tsunami hazard maps may need to be prepared for infrequent gigantic earthquakes as well as more frequent smaller-sized earthquakes (Satake, 2011). We have initiated an extensive modeling study to perform a deterministic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas. Characteristic earthquake source parameters (strike, dip, rake, depth, Mwmax) at each 0.5° x 0.5° size bin for 0-40 km depth (total of 310 bins) and for 40-100 km depth (total of 92 bins) in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea region (30°N-48°N and 22°E-44°E) have been assigned from the harmonization of the available databases and previous studies. These parameters have been used as input parameters for the deterministic tsunami hazard modeling. Nested Tsunami simulations of 6h duration with a coarse (2 arc-min) grid resolution have been simulated at EC-JRC premises for Black Sea and Eastern and Central Mediterranean (30°N-41.5°N and 8°E-37°E) for each source defined using shallow water finite-difference SWAN code (Mader, 2004) for the magnitude range of 6.5 - Mwmax defined for that bin with a Mw increment of 0.1. Results show that not only the earthquakes resembling the

  6. A rapid estimation of tsunami run-up based on finite fault models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, J.; Fuentes, M. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Barrientos, S. E.; Riquelme, S.

    2014-12-01

    Many efforts have been made to estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify our knowledge of the earthquake source. Instead, we can use finite fault models of earthquakes to give a more accurate prediction of the tsunami run-up. Here we show how to accurately predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution found by Fuentes et al, 2013 that was especially calculated for zones with a very well defined strike, i.e, Chile, Japan, Alaska, etc. The main idea of this work is to produce a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for quickness. Our solutions for three large earthquakes are promising. Here we compute models of the run-up for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Our maximum rup-up predictions are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 15 to 20 m for Maule, 40 m for Tohoku, and 2,1 m for the Iquique earthquake. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first five minutes after the occurrence of any such event. Such calculations will thus provide more accurate run-up information than is otherwise available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases.

  7. The Euro-Mediterranean Tsunami Catalogue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Maramai

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available A unified catalogue containing 290 tsunamis generated in the European and Mediterranean seas since 6150 B.C. to current days is presented. It is the result of a systematic and detailed review of all the regional catalogues available in literature covering the study area, each of them having their own format and level of accuracy. The realization of a single catalogue covering a so wide area and involving several countries was a complex task that posed a series of challenges, being the standardization and the quality of the data the most demanding. A “reliability” value was used to rate equally the quality of the data for each event and this parameter was assigned based on the trustworthiness of the information related to the generating cause, the tsunami description accuracy and also on the availability of coeval bibliographical sources. Following these criteria we included in the catalogue events whose reliability ranges from 0 (“very improbable tsunami” to 4 (“definite tsunami”. About 900 documentary sources, including historical documents, books, scientific reports, newspapers and previous catalogues, support the tsunami data and descriptions gathered in this catalogue. As a result, in the present paper a list of the 290 tsunamis with their main parameters is reported. The online version of the catalogue, available at http://roma2.rm.ingv.it/en/facilities/data_bases/52/catalogue_of_the_euro-mediterranean_tsunamis, provides additional information such as detailed descriptions, pictures, etc. and the complete list of bibliographical sources. Most of the included events have a high reliability value (3= “probable” and 4= “definite” which makes the Euro-Mediterranean Tsunami Catalogue an essential tool for the implementation of tsunami hazard and risk assessment.

  8. Synthetic tsunami waveform catalogs with kinematic constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, Maria Ana; Miranda, Jorge Miguel; Matias, Luis; Omira, Rachid

    2017-07-01

    In this study we present a comprehensive methodology to produce a synthetic tsunami waveform catalogue in the northeast Atlantic, east of the Azores islands. The method uses a synthetic earthquake catalogue compatible with plate kinematic constraints of the area. We use it to assess the tsunami hazard from the transcurrent boundary located between Iberia and the Azores, whose western part is known as the Gloria Fault. This study focuses only on earthquake-generated tsunamis. Moreover, we assume that the time and space distribution of the seismic events is known. To do this, we compute a synthetic earthquake catalogue including all fault parameters needed to characterize the seafloor deformation covering the time span of 20 000 years, which we consider long enough to ensure the representability of earthquake generation on this segment of the plate boundary. The computed time and space rupture distributions are made compatible with global kinematic plate models. We use the tsunami empirical Green's functions to efficiently compute the synthetic tsunami waveforms for the dataset of coastal locations, thus providing the basis for tsunami impact characterization. We present the results in the form of offshore wave heights for all coastal points in the dataset. Our results focus on the northeast Atlantic basin, showing that earthquake-induced tsunamis in the transcurrent segment of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary pose a minor threat to coastal areas north of Portugal and beyond the Strait of Gibraltar. However, in Morocco, the Azores, and the Madeira islands, we can expect wave heights between 0.6 and 0.8 m, leading to precautionary evacuation of coastal areas. The advantages of the method are its easy application to other regions and the low computation effort needed.

  9. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's Response to the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, S. A.; Becker, N. C.; Shiro, B.; Koyanagi, K. K.; Sardina, V.; Walsh, D.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C. S.; Fryer, G. J.; Cessaro, R. K.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Hsu, V.

    2011-12-01

    The largest Pacific basin earthquake in 47 years, and also the largest magnitude earthquake since the Sumatra 2004 earthquake, struck off of the east coast of the Tohoku region of Honshu, Japan at 5:46 UTC on 11 March 2011. The Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) generated a massive tsunami with runups of up to 40m along the Tohoku coast. The tsunami waves crossed the Pacific Ocean causing significant damage as far away as Hawaii, California, and Chile, thereby becoming the largest, most destructive tsunami in the Pacific Basin since 1960. Triggers on the seismic stations at Erimo, Hokkaido (ERM) and Matsushiro, Honshu (MAJO), alerted Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists 90 seconds after the earthquake began. Four minutes after its origin, and about one minute after the earthquake's rupture ended, PTWC issued an observatory message reporting a preliminary magnitude of 7.5. Eight minutes after origin time, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued its first international tsunami message in its capacity as the Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center. In accordance with international tsunami warning system protocols, PTWC then followed with its first international tsunami warning message using JMA's earthquake parameters, including an Mw of 7.8. Additional Mwp, mantle wave, and W-phase magnitude estimations based on the analysis of later-arriving seismic data at PTWC revealed that the earthquake magnitude reached at least 8.8, and that a destructive tsunami would likely be crossing the Pacific Ocean. The earthquake damaged the nearest coastal sea-level station located 90 km from the epicenter in Ofunato, Japan. The NOAA DART sensor situated 600 km off the coast of Sendai, Japan, at a depth of 5.6 km recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of nearly two meters, making it by far the largest tsunami wave ever recorded by a DART sensor. Thirty minutes later, a coastal sea-level station at Hanasaki, Japan, 600 km from the epicenter, recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of

  10. The Solomon Islands Tsunami of 6 February 2013 in the Santa Cruz Islands: Field Survey and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Papantoniou, Antonios; Biukoto, Litea; Albert, Gilly; Wei, Yong

    2014-05-01

    On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were

  11. Hydraulic experiment on formation mechanism of tsunami deposit and verification of sediment transport model for tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, A.; Takahashi, T.; Harada, K.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

    2017-12-01

    An underestimation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami caused serious damage in coastal area. Reconsideration for tsunami estimation needs knowledge of paleo tsunamis. The historical records of giant tsunamis are limited, because they had occurred infrequently. Tsunami deposits may include many of tsunami records and are expected to analyze paleo tsunamis. However, present research on tsunami deposits are not able to estimate the tsunami source and its magnitude. Furthermore, numerical models of tsunami and its sediment transport are also important. Takahashi et al. (1999) proposed a model of movable bed condition due to tsunamis, although it has some issues. Improvement of the model needs basic data on sediment transport and deposition. This study investigated the formation mechanism of tsunami deposit by hydraulic experiment using a two-dimensional water channel with slope. In a fixed bed condition experiment, velocity, water level and suspended load concentration were measured at many points. In a movable bed condition, effects of sand grains and bore wave on the deposit were examined. Yamamoto et al. (2016) showed deposition range varied with sand grain sizes. In addition, it is revealed that the range fluctuated by number of waves and wave period. The measurements of velocity and water level showed that flow was clearly different near shoreline and in run-up area. Large velocity by return flow was affected the amount of sand deposit near shoreline. When a cutoff wall was installed on the slope, the amount of sand deposit repeatedly increased and decreased. Especially, sand deposit increased where velocity decreased. Takahashi et al. (1999) adapted the proposed model into Kesennuma bay when the 1960 Chilean tsunami arrived, although the amount of sand transportation was underestimated. The cause of the underestimation is inferred that the velocity of this model was underestimated. A relationship between velocity and sediment transport has to be studied in detail, but

  12. Investigation on potential landslide sources along the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment for the 1693 tsunami in Eastern Sicily (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaniboni, Filippo; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    The study of the source of 1693 tsunami in eastern Sicily (South Italy) is still debated in the scientific community. Macroseismic analyses provide inland location for the epicenter of the earthquake, while historical reports describing 1-2 m waves hitting the coast suggest the existence of at least an offshore extension of the fault. Furthermore, an anomalous water elevation was described in Augusta (between Siracusa and Catania), that was interpreted as the manifestation of a local submarine landslide. The presence of the steep Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, that runs parallel to the eastern coast of Sicily at a short distance from the shoreline and is cut by several canyons and scars, corroborates the hypothesis of a landslide occurrence, though no clear evidence has been found yet. This research, realized in the frame of the project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839), aims at assessing the effect of landslide-generated tsunamis on the coastal stretch around Augusta considering different scenarios of collapsing masses along the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment. The slide dynamics is computed by means of the numerical code UBO-BLOCK1 (developed by the University of Bologna Tsunami Research Team), and the corresponding tsunami is simulated via the code UBO-TSUFD. The sliding bodies are placed in different positions in order to assess which of them could produce significant effects on the town of Augusta, providing then clues on the possible source area for the hypothesized slide related to the 1693 tsunami. The sensitivity analysis shows the spatial dependence of the coastal tsunami height on the source volume, position, distance from the coast, and on other parameters.

  13. Research for developing precise tsunami evaluation methods. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis/numerical simulation method with dispersion and wave breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The present report introduces main results of investigations on precise tsunami evaluation methods, which were carried out from the viewpoint of safety evaluation for nuclear power facilities and deliberated by the Tsunami Evaluation Subcommittee. A framework for the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) based on logic tree is proposed and calculation on the Pacific side of northeastern Japan is performed as a case study. Tsunami motions with dispersion and wave breaking were investigated both experimentally and numerically. The numerical simulation method is verified for its practicability by applying to a historical tsunami. Tsunami force is also investigated and formulae of tsunami pressure acting on breakwaters and on building due to inundating tsunami are proposed. (author)

  14. Coastal Impacts of the March 11th Tohoku, Japan Tsunami in the Galapagos Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, Patrick; Weiss, Robert; Renteria, Willington; De La Torre Morales, Giorgio; Son, Sangyoung; Arcos, Maria Elizabeth Martin; MacInnes, Breanyn Tiel

    2013-06-01

    On March 11, 2011 at 5:46:23 UTC (March 10 11:46:23 PM Galapagos Local Time), the Mw 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake occurred near the Tohoku region off the east coast of Japan, spawning a Pacific-wide tsunami. Approximately 12,000 km away, the Galapagos Islands experienced moderate tsunami impacts, including flooding, structural damage, and strong currents. In this paper, we present observations and measurements of the tsunami effects in the Galapagos, focusing on the four largest islands in the archipelago; (from west to east) Isabela, Santiagio, Santa Cruz, and San Cristobal. Access to the tsunami affected areas was one of the largest challenges of the field survey. Aside from approximately ten sandy beaches open to tourists, all other shoreline locations are restricted to anyone without a research permit; open cooperation with the Galapagos National Park provided the survey team complete access to the Islands coastlines. Survey locations were guided by numerical simulations of the tsunami performed prior to the field work. This numerical guidance accurately predicted the regions of highest impact, as well as regions of relatively low impact. Tide-corrected maximum tsunami heights were generally in the range of 3-4 m with the highest runup of 6 m measured in a small pocket beach on Isla Isabela. Puerto Ayora, on Santa Cruz Island, the largest harbor in the Galapagos experienced significant flooding and damage to structures located at the shoreline. A current meter moored inside the harbor recorded relatively weak tsunami currents of less than 0.3 m/s (0.6 knot) during the event. Comparisons with detailed numerical simulations suggest that these low current speed observations are most likely the result of data averaging at 20-min intervals and that maximum instantaneous current speeds were considerably larger. Currents in the Canal de Itabaca, a natural waterway between Santa Cruz Island and a smaller island offshore, were strong enough to displace multiple 5

  15. A Tsunami PSA for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil; Park, Jin Hee; Seo, Kyung Suk; Seo, Jeong Moon; Yang, Joon Eon

    2010-06-01

    For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied in this study. At first, an empirical tsunami hazard analysis performed for an evaluation of tsunami return period. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. Finally, a system analysis performed in the case of tsunami event for an evaluation of a CDF of Ulchin 56 NPP site. For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. As a result, in the case of tsunami event, functional failure is mostly governed total failure probability of facilities in NPP site

  16. Identification and characterization of tsunami deposits off southeast ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    6Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Pukyong National. University ... challenging topic to be developed in studies on tsunami hazard assessment. Two core ... A tsunami is one of the most terrifying natural hazards .... identify tsunami deposits in a beach environment.

  17. Mathematical Modelling of Tsunami Propagation | Eze | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The generation of tsunamis with the help of a simple dislocation model of an earthquake and their propagation in the basin are discussed. In this study, we examined the formation of a tsunami wave from an initial sea surface displacement similar to those obtained from earthquakes that have generated tsunami waves and ...

  18. Open-Ocean and Coastal Properties of Recent Major Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, A.; Thomson, R.; Zaytsev, O.

    2017-12-01

    The properties of six major tsunamis during the period 2009-2015 (2009 Samoa; 2010 Chile; 2011 Tohoku; 2012 Haida Gwaii; 2014 and 2015 Chile) were thoroughly examined using coastal data from British Columbia, the U.S. West Coast and Mexico, and offshore open-ocean DART and NEPTUNE stations. Based on joint spectral analyses of the tsunamis and background noise, we have developed a method to suppress the influence of local topography and to use coastal observations to determine the underlying spectra of tsunami waves in the deep ocean. The "reconstructed" open-ocean tsunami spectra were found to be in close agreement with the actual tsunami spectra evaluated from the analysis of directly measured open-ocean tsunami records. We have further used the spectral estimates to parameterize tsunamis based on their integral open-ocean spectral characteristics. Three key parameters are introduced to describe individual tsunami events: (1) Integral open-ocean energy; (2) Amplification factor (increase of the mean coastal tsunami variance relative to the open-ocean variance); and (3) Tsunami colour, the frequency composition of the open-ocean tsunami waves. In particular, we found that the strongest tsunamis, associated with large source areas (the 2010 Chile and 2011 Tohoku) are "reddish" (indicating the dominance of low-frequency motions), while small-source events (the 2009 Samoa and 2012 Haida Gwaii) are "bluish" (indicating strong prevalence of high-frequency motions).

  19. Tsunami Ionospheric warning and Ionospheric seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lognonne, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Rakoto, Virgile; Coisson, Pierdavide; Occhipinti, Giovanni; Larmat, Carene; Walwer, Damien; Astafyeva, Elvira; Hebert, Helene; Okal, Emile; Makela, Jonathan

    2014-05-01

    The last decade demonstrated that seismic waves and tsunamis are coupled to the ionosphere. Observations of Total Electron Content (TEC) and airglow perturbations of unique quality and amplitude were made during the Tohoku, 2011 giant Japan quake, and observations of much lower tsunamis down to a few cm in sea uplift are now routinely done, including for the Kuril 2006, Samoa 2009, Chili 2010, Haida Gwai 2012 tsunamis. This new branch of seismology is now mature enough to tackle the new challenge associated to the inversion of these data, with either the goal to provide from these data maps or profile of the earth surface vertical displacement (and therefore crucial information for tsunami warning system) or inversion, with ground and ionospheric data set, of the various parameters (atmospheric sound speed, viscosity, collision frequencies) controlling the coupling between the surface, lower atmosphere and the ionosphere. We first present the state of the art in the modeling of the tsunami-atmospheric coupling, including in terms of slight perturbation in the tsunami phase and group velocity and dependance of the coupling strength with local time, ocean depth and season. We then show the confrontation of modelled signals with observations. For tsunami, this is made with the different type of measurement having proven ionospheric tsunami detection over the last 5 years (ground and space GPS, Airglow), while we focus on GPS and GOCE observation for seismic waves. These observation systems allowed to track the propagation of the signal from the ground (with GPS and seismometers) to the neutral atmosphere (with infrasound sensors and GOCE drag measurement) to the ionosphere (with GPS TEC and airglow among other ionospheric sounding techniques). Modelling with different techniques (normal modes, spectral element methods, finite differences) are used and shown. While the fits of the waveform are generally very good, we analyse the differences and draw direction of future

  20. PEMETAAN BAHAYA GEMPA BUMI DAN POTENSI TSU-NAMI DI BALI BERDASARKAN NILAI SEISMISITAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayu Baskara

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Bali is one of the areas prone to earthquake and tsunami as being at the junction of two plates, namely the Eurasian plate and the Indo-Australian plate is located in the south of Bali and back arc trust zones are located in the North of Bali. We need research on the potential dangers of earthquakes and tsunami in Bali are based on the value of seismicity which is interpreted by the value of b and a. This study uses earthquake data on the coordinates 6?-11? SLand 114?-116? EL with 339 data that was processed using Zmap in order to obtain the value of b at 1.57 ± 0.008 and the value of a is 10.6 and maximum magnitude of 7.1 Mw. From mapping the values ??of b and a known area that has the highest value of b and a lies in the sea area to the south of Bali, Karangasem and Buleleng to the northern region of Bali. Furthermore, for mapping the tsunami in Bali using the TOAST application obtained tsunami prone areas of Bali, Kuta Beach, East Buleleng and Karangasem.

  1. Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnyder, Jara S D; Eberli, Gregor P; Kirby, James T; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

    2016-11-04

    Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms -1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

  2. Can Asteroid Airbursts Cause Dangerous Tsunami?.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    I have performed a series of high-resolution hydrocode simulations to generate “source functions” for tsunami simulations as part of a proof-of-principle effort to determine whether or not the downward momentum from an asteroid airburst can couple energy into a dangerous tsunami in deep water. My new CTH simulations show enhanced momentum multiplication relative to a nuclear explosion of the same yield. Extensive sensitivity and convergence analyses demonstrate that results are robust and repeatable for simulations with sufficiently high resolution using adaptive mesh refinement. I have provided surface overpressure and wind velocity fields to tsunami modelers to use as time-dependent boundary conditions and to test the hypothesis that this mechanism can enhance the strength of the resulting shallow-water wave. The enhanced momentum result suggests that coupling from an over-water plume-forming airburst could be a more efficient tsunami source mechanism than a collapsing impact cavity or direct air blast alone, but not necessarily due to the originally-proposed mechanism. This result has significant implications for asteroid impact risk assessment and airburst-generated tsunami will be the focus of a NASA-sponsored workshop at the Ames Research Center next summer, with follow-on funding expected.

  3. Tsunami-tendenko and morality in disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodama, Satoshi

    2015-05-01

    Disaster planning challenges our morality. Everyday rules of action may need to be suspended during large-scale disasters in favour of maxims that that may make prudential or practical sense and may even be morally preferable but emotionally hard to accept, such as tsunami-tendenko. This maxim dictates that the individual not stay and help others but run and preserve his or her life instead. Tsunami-tendenko became well known after the great East Japan earthquake on 11 March 2011, when almost all the elementary and junior high school students in one city survived the tsunami because they acted on this maxim that had been taught for several years. While tsunami-tendenko has been praised, two criticisms of it merit careful consideration: one, that the maxim is selfish and immoral; and two, that it goes against the natural tendency to try to save others in dire need. In this paper, I will explain the concept of tsunami-tendenko and then respond to these criticisms. Such ethical analysis is essential for dispelling confusion and doubts about evacuation policies in a disaster. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  4. Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

    2009-04-01

    Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of

  5. Public Perceptions of Tsunamis and the NOAA TsunamiReady Program in Los Angeles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, A.

    2010-12-01

    After the devastating December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, California and other coastal states began installing "Tsunami Warning Zone" and "Evacuation Route" signs at beaches and major access roads. The geography of the Los Angeles area may not be conducive to signage alone for communication of the tsunami risk and safety precautions. Over a year after installation, most people surveyed did not know about or recognize the tsunami signs. More alarming is that many did not believe a tsunami could occur in the area even though earthquake generated waves have reached nearby beaches as recently as September 2009! UPDATE: FEB. 2010. Fifty two percent of the 147 people surveyed did not believe they would survive a natural disaster in Los Angeles. Given the unique geography of Los Angeles, how can the city and county improve the mental health of its citizens before and after a natural disaster? This poster begins to address the issues of community self-efficacy and resiliency in the face of tsunamis. Of note for future research, the data from this survey showed that most people believed climate change would increase the occurrence of tsunamis. Also, the public understanding of water inundation was disturbingly low. As scientists, it is important to understand the big picture of our research - how it is ultimately communicated, understood, and used by the public.

  6. NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE GLOBAL TSUNAMI: Indonesian Tsunami of 26 December 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zygmunt Kowalik

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A new model for the global tsunami computation is constructed. It includes a high order of approximation for the spatial derivatives. The boundary condition at the shore line is controlled by the total depth and can be set either to runup or to the zero normal velocity. This model, with spatial resolution of one minute, is applied to the tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the World Ocean from 80◦S to 69◦N. Because the computational domain includes close to 200 million grid points, a parallel version of the code was developed and run on a supercomputer. The high spatial resolution of one minute produces very small numerical dispersion even when tsunamis wave travel over large distances. Model results for the Indonesian tsunami show that the tsunami traveled to every location of the World Ocean. In the Indian Ocean the tsunami properties are related to the source function, i.e., to the magnitude of the bottom displacement and directional properties of the source. In the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, in the Pacific, and especially in the Atlantic, tsunami waves propagate over large distances by energy ducting over oceanic ridges. Tsunami energy is concentrated by long wave trapping over the oceanic ridges. Our computations show the Coriolis force plays a noticeable but secondary role in the trapping. Travel times obtained from computations as arrival of the first significant wave show a clear and consistent pattern only in the region of the high amplitude and in the simply connected domains. The tsunami traveled from Indonesia, around New Zealand, and into the Pacific Ocean. The path through the deep ocean to North America carried miniscule energy, while the stronger signal traveled a much longer distance via South Pacific ridges. The time difference between first signal and later signals strong enough to be recorded at North Pacific locations was several hours.

  7. Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan

    2014-01-01

    Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

  8. Tsunami Evidence in South Coast Java, Case Study: Tsunami Deposit along South Coast of Cilacap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizal, Yan; Aswan; Zaim, Yahdi; Dwijo Santoso, Wahyu; Rochim, Nur; Daryono; Dewi Anugrah, Suci; Wijayanto; Gunawan, Indra; Yatimantoro, Tatok; Hidayanti; Herdiyani Rahayu, Resti; Priyobudi

    2017-06-01

    Cilacap Area is situated in coastal area of Southern Java and directly affected by tsunami hazard in 2006. This event was triggered by active subduction in Java Trench which active since long time ago. To detect tsunami and active tectonic in Southern Java, paleo-tsunami study is performed which is targeted paleo-tsunami deposit older than fifty years ago. During 2011 - 2016, 16 locations which suspected as paleo-tsunami location were visited and the test-pits were performed to obtain characteristic and stratigraphy of paleo-tsunami layers. Paleo-tsunami layer was identified by the presence of light-sand in the upper part of paleo-soil, liquefaction fine grain sandstone, and many rip-up clast of mudstone. The systematic samples were taken and analysis (micro-fauna, grainsize and dating analysis). Micro-fauna result shows that paleo-tsunami layer consist of benthonic foraminifera assemblages from different bathymetry and mixing in one layer. Moreover, grainsize shows random grain distribution which characterized as turbulence and strong wave deposit. Paleo-tsunami layers in Cilacap area are correlated using paleo-soil as marker. There are three paleo-tsunami layers and the distribution can be identified as PS-A, PS-B and PS-C. The samples which were taken in Glempang Pasir layer are being dated using Pb - Zn (Lead-Zinc) method. The result of Pb - Zn (Lead-Zinc) dating shows that PS-A was deposited in 139 years ago, PS-B in 21 years ago, and PS C in 10 years ago. This result indicates that PS -1 occurred in 1883 earthquake activity while PS B formed in 1982 earthquake and PS-C was formed by 2006 earthquake. For ongoing research, the older paleo-tsunami layers were determined in the Gua Nagaraja, close to Selok location and 6 layers of Paleo-tsunami suspect found which shown a similar characteristic with the layers from another location. The three layers deeper approximately have an older age than another location in Cilacap.

  9. Holocene Tsunami Deposits From Large Tsunamis Along the Kuril Subduction Zone, Northeast Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanayama, F.; Furukawa, R.; Satake, K.; Soeda, Y.; Shigeno, K.

    2003-12-01

    Holocene tsunami deposits in eastern Hokkaido between Nemuro and Tokachi show that the Kuril subduction zone repeatedly produced earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those recorded in this region since AD 1804 (Nanayama et al., Nature, 424, 660-663, 2003). Twenty-two postulated tsunami sand layers from the past 9500 years are preserved on lake bottom near Kushiro City, and about ten postulated tsunami sand layers from the past 3000 years are preserved in peat layers on the coastal marsh of Kiritappu. We dated these ten tsunami deposits (named Ts1 to Ts10 from shallower to deeper) in peat layers by radiocarbon and tephrochronology, correlated them with historical earthquakes and tsunamis, and surveyed their spatial distribution to estimate the tsunamisO inland inundation limits. Ts10 and Ts9 are under regional tephra Ta-c2 (ca. 2.5 ka) and represent prehistorical events. Ts8 to Ts5 are between two regional tephra layers Ta-c2 and B-Tm (ca. 9th century). In particular, Ts5 is found just below B-Tm, so it is dated 9th century (Heian era). Ts4 is dated ca 13th century (Kamakura era), while Ts3, found just below Us-b and Ta-b (AD 1667-1663), is dated 17th century (Edo era). Ts2 is dated 19th century (Edo era) and may correspond to the AD 1843 Tempo Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mt 8.0) recorded in a historical document Nikkanki of Kokutai-ji temple at Akkeshi. Ts1 is inferred 20th century and may correspond to the tsunami from the AD 1960 Chilean earthquake (M 9.5) or the AD 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mt 8.2). Our detailed surveys indicate that Ts3 and Ts4 can be traced more than 3 km from the present coast line in Kirittapu marsh, much longer than the limits (< 1 km) of recent deposits Ts1 and Ts2 or documented inundation of the 19th and 20th century tsunamis. The recurrence intervals of great tsunami inundation are about 400 to 500 years, longer than that of typical interplate earthquakes along the Kuril subduction zone. The longer interval and the apparent large tsunami

  10. Changes in Tsunami Risk Perception in Northern Chile After the April 1 2014 Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, L.; Lagos, M.

    2016-12-01

    Tsunamis are a permanent risk in the coast of Chile. Apart from that, the coastal settlements and the Chilean State, historically, have underestimated the danger of tsunamis. On April 1 2014, a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake and a minor tsunami occurred off the coast of northern Chile. Considering that over decades this region has been awaiting an earthquake that would generate a large tsunami, in this study we inquired if the familiarity with the subject tsunami and the lack of frequent tsunamis or occurrence of non-hazardous tsunamis for people could lead to adaptive responses to underestimate the danger. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the perceived risk of tsunami in the city of Arica, before and after the April 1 2014 event. A questionnaire was designed and applied in two time periods to 547 people living in low coastal areas in Arica. In the first step, the survey was applied in March 2014. While in step 2, new questions were included and the survey was reapplied, a year after the minor tsunami. A descriptive analysis of data was performed, followed by a comparison between means. We identified illusion of invulnerability, especially regarding to assessment that preparedness and education actions are enough. Answers about lack of belief in the occurrence of future tsunamis were also reported. At the same time, there were learning elements identified. After April 1, a larger number of participants described self-protection actions for emergency, as well as performing of preventive actions. In addition, we mapped answers about the tsunami danger degree in different locations in the city, where we observed a high knowledge of it. When compared with other hazards, the concern about tsunamis were very high, lower than earthquakes hazard, but higher than pollution, crime and rain. Moreover, we identified place attachment in answers about sense of security and affective bonds with home and their location. We discussed the relationship between risk perception

  11. New Perspective of Tsunami Deposit Investigations: Insight from the 1755 Lisbon Tsunami in Martinique, Lesser Antilles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger, J.; Clouard, V.; Moizan, E.

    2014-12-01

    The recent devastating tsunamis having occurred during the last decades have highlighted the essential necessity to deploy operationnal warning systems and educate coastal populations. This could not be prepared correctly without a minimum knowledge about the tsunami history. That is the case of the Lesser Antilles islands, where a few handfuls of tsunamis have been reported over the past 5 centuries, some of them leading to notable destructions and inundations. But the lack of accurate details for most of the historical tsunamis and the limited period during which we could find written information represents an important problem for tsunami hazard assessment in this region. Thus, it is of major necessity to try to find other evidences of past tsunamis by looking for sedimentary deposits. Unfortunately, island tropical environments do not seem to be the best places to keep such deposits burried. In fact, heavy rainfalls, storms, and all other phenomena leading to coastal erosion, and associated to human activities such as intensive sugarcane cultivation in coastal flat lands, could caused the loss of potential tsunami deposits. Lots of places have been accurately investigated within the Lesser Antilles (from Sainte-Lucia to the British Virgin Islands) the last 3 years and nothing convincing has been found. That is when archeaological investigations excavated a 8-cm thick sandy and shelly layer in downtown Fort-de-France (Martinique), wedged between two well-identified layers of human origin (Fig. 1), that we found new hope: this sandy layer has been quickly attributed without any doubt to the 1755 tsunami, using on one hand the information provided by historical reports of the construction sites, and on the other hand by numerical modeling of the tsunami (wave heights, velocity fields, etc.) showing the ability of this transoceanic tsunami to wrap around the island after ~7 hours of propagation, enter Fort-de-France's Bay with enough energy to carry sediments, and

  12. Tsunami Speed Variations in Density-stratified Compressible Global Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watada, S.

    2013-12-01

    Recent tsunami observations in the deep ocean have accumulated unequivocal evidence that tsunami traveltime delays compared with the linear long-wave tsunami simulations occur during tsunami propagation in the deep ocean. The delay is up to 2% of the tsunami traveltime. Watada et al. [2013] investigated the cause of the delay using the normal mode theory of tsunamis and attributed the delay to the compressibility of seawater, the elasticity of the solid earth, and the gravitational potential change associated with mass motion during the passage of tsunamis. Tsunami speed variations in the deep ocean caused by seawater density stratification is investigated using a newly developed propagator matrix method that is applicable to seawater with depth-variable sound speeds and density gradients. For a 4-km deep ocean, the total tsunami speed reduction is 0.45% compared with incompressible homogeneous seawater; two thirds of the reduction is due to elastic energy stored in the water and one third is due to water density stratification mainly by hydrostatic compression. Tsunami speeds are computed for global ocean density and sound speed profiles and characteristic structures are discussed. Tsunami speed reductions are proportional to ocean depth with small variations, except for in warm Mediterranean seas. The impacts of seawater compressibility and the elasticity effect of the solid earth on tsunami traveltime should be included for precise modeling of trans-oceanic tsunamis. Data locations where a vertical ocean profile deeper than 2500 m is available in World Ocean Atlas 2009. The dark gray area indicates the Pacific Ocean defined in WOA09. a) Tsunami speed variations. Red, gray and black bars represent global, Pacific, and Mediterranean Sea, respectively. b) Regression lines of the tsunami velocity reduction for all oceans. c)Vertical ocean profiles at grid points indicated by the stars in Figure 1.

  13. Will oscillating wave surge converters survive tsunamis?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O’Brien

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With an increasing emphasis on renewable energy resources, wave power technology is becoming one of the realistic solutions. However, the 2011 tsunami in Japan was a harsh reminder of the ferocity of the ocean. It is known that tsunamis are nearly undetectable in the open ocean but as the wave approaches the shore its energy is compressed, creating large destructive waves. The question posed here is whether an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC could withstand the force of an incoming tsunami. Several tools are used to provide an answer: an analytical 3D model developed within the framework of linear theory, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations and empirical formulas. Numerical results show that run-up and draw-down can be amplified under some circumstances, leading to an OWSC lying on dry ground!

  14. Tsunamis: bridging science, engineering and society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kânoğlu, U; Titov, V; Bernard, E; Synolakis, C

    2015-10-28

    Tsunamis are high-impact, long-duration disasters that in most cases allow for only minutes of warning before impact. Since the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, there have been significant advancements in warning methodology, pre-disaster preparedness and basic understanding of related phenomena. Yet, the trail of destruction of the 2011 Japan tsunami, broadcast live to a stunned world audience, underscored the difficulties of implementing advances in applied hazard mitigation. We describe state of the art methodologies, standards for warnings and summarize recent advances in basic understanding, and identify cross-disciplinary challenges. The stage is set to bridge science, engineering and society to help build up coastal resilience and reduce losses. © 2015 The Author(s).

  15. Damages in American Samoa due to the 29 September 2009 Samoa Islands Region Earthquake Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okumura, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Suzuki, S.

    2009-12-01

    A large earthquake of Mw 8.0 occurred in Samoa Islands Region in the early morning on 29 September 2009 (local time). A Large Tsunami generated by the earthquake hit Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga. Total 192 people were died or missing in these three countries (22 October 2009). The authors surveyed in Tutuila Island, American Samoa from 6 to 8 in October 2009 with the aim to find out damages in the disaster. In American Samoa, death and missing toll was 35. The main findings are as follows; first, human damages were little for tsunami run-up height of about 4 to 6 meters and tsunami arrival time of about 20 minutes. We can suppose that residents evacuated quickly after feeling shaking or something. Secondly, houses were severely damaged in some low elevation coastal villages such as Amanave, Leone, Pago Pago, Tula and so on. Third, a power plant and an airport, which are important infrastructures in relief and recovery phase, were also severely damaged. Inundation depth at the power plant was 2.31 meters. A blackout in the daytime lasted when we surveyed. On the other hand, the airport could use already at that time. But it was closed on the first day in the disaster because of a lot of disaster debris on the runway carried by tsunami. Inundation depth at the airport fence was measured in 0.7 to 0.8 meters. Other countries in the south-western Pacific region may have power plants or airports with similar risk, so it should be assessed against future tsunami disasters. Inundated thermal power plant in Pago Pago Debris on runway in Tafuna Airport (Provided by Mr. Chris Soti, DPA)

  16. The elusive AD 1826 tsunami, South Westland, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goff, J.R.; Wells, A.; Chague-Goff, C.; Nichol, S.L.; Devoy, R.J.N.

    2004-01-01

    In AD 1826 sealers reported earthquake and tsunami activity in Fiordland, although contemporary or near-contemporary accounts of tsunami inundation at the time are elusive. A detailed analysis of recent sediments fom Okarito Lagoon builds on contextual evidence provided by earlier research concerning past tsunami inundation. Sedimentological, geochemical, micropalaeontological and geochronological data are used to determine palaeoenvironments before, during and after what was most probably tsunami inundation in AD 1826. The most compelling chronological control is provided by a young cohort of trees growing on a raised shoreline bench stranded by a drop in the lagoon water level following tsunami inundation. (author). 42 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab

  17. Field survey of the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2016-04-01

    On the evening of 16 September, 2015 a magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of central Chile's Coquimbo region. The ensuing tsunami caused significant inundation and damage in the Coquimbo or 4th region and mostly minor effects in neighbouring 3rd and 5th regions. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past 1922 and 1943 tsunamis in the region along with the catastrophic 2010 Maule and recent 2014 tsunamis, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. There were a few tsunami victims; while a handful of fatalities were associated to earthquake induced building collapses and the physical stress of tsunami evacuation. The international scientist joined the local effort from September 20 to 26, 2015. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 500 km stretch of coastline from Caleta Chañaral de Aceituno (28.8° S) south of Huasco down to Llolleo near San Antonio (33.6° S). We surveyed more than 40 locations and recorded more than 100 tsunami and runup heights with differential GPS and integrated laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked at Caleta Totoral near Punta Aldea with both tsunami and runup heights exceeding 10 m as surveyed on September 22 and broadcasted nationwide that evening. Runup exceeded 10 m at a second uninhabited location some 15 km south of Caleta Totoral. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of central Chile at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2015 Chile tsunami are compared against the 1922, 1943, 2010 and 2014 Chile tsunamis. The

  18. Assessment of the safety of Ulchin nuclear power plant in the event of tsunami using parametric study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ji Young; Kang, Keum Seok

    2011-01-01

    Previous evaluations of the safety of the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plant in the event of a tsunami have the shortcoming of uncertainty of the tsunami sources. To address this uncertainty, maximum and minimum wave heights at the intake of Ulchin NPP have been estimated through a parametric study, and then assessment of the safety margin for the intake has been carried out. From the simulation results for the Ulchin NPP site, it can be seen that the coefficient of eddy viscosity considerably affects wave height at the inside of the breakwater. In addition, assessment of the safety margin shows that almost all of the intake water pumps have a safety margin over 2 m, and Ulchin NPP site seems to be safe in the event of a tsunami according to this parametric study, although parts of the CWPs rarely have a margin for the minimum wave height

  19. Numerical tsunami hazard assessment of the submarine volcano Kick 'em Jenny in high resolution are

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondin, Frédéric; Dorville, Jean-Francois Marc; Robertson, Richard E. A.

    2016-04-01

    Landslide-generated tsunami are infrequent phenomena that can be potentially highly hazardous for population located in the near-field domain of the source. The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc is a curved 800 km chain of volcanic islands. At least 53 flank collapse episodes have been recognized along the arc. Several of these collapses have been associated with underwater voluminous deposits (volume > 1 km3). Due to their momentum these events were likely capable of generating regional tsunami. However no clear field evidence of tsunami associated with these voluminous events have been reported but the occurrence of such an episode nowadays would certainly have catastrophic consequences. Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ) is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Arc (LAA), with a current edifice volume estimated to 1.5 km3. It is the southernmost edifice of the LAA with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. The volcano appears to have undergone three episodes of flank failure. Numerical simulations of one of these episodes associated with a collapse volume of ca. 4.4 km3 and considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami with amplitude of 30 m. In the present study we applied a detailed hazard assessment on KeJ submarine volcano (KeJ) form its collapse to its waves impact on high resolution coastal area of selected island of the LAA in order to highlight needs to improve alert system and risk mitigation. We present the assessment process of tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (i.e. run-up) and flood dynamic (i.e. duration, height, speed...) at the coast of LAA island in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. After quantification of potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA, VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5) based on seven geomechanical models, the tsunami source have been simulate by St-Venant equations-based code

  20. Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment of Sines - Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Wronna, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Tese de mestrado em Ciências Geográficas, apresentada à Universidade de Lisboa, através da Faculdade de Ciências, 2015 Neste trabalho apresenta-se uma abordagem determinística de perigo de tsunamis considerando múltiplas fontes para a cidade costeira de Sines, Portugal. Tsunamis ou maremotos são eventos extremos, energeticamente elevados mas pouco frequentes. Normalmente são geradas por um deslocamento duma grande quantidade de água seja por erupções vulcânicas, colapso de caldeiras, desli...

  1. Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.; Jessica, P.; Daly, P.; Ismail, N.; Parnell, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here, we identify coastal caves as a new depositional environment for reconstructing tsunami records and present a 5,000 year record of continuous tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Sumatra, Indonesia which shows the irregular recurrence of 11 tsunamis between 7,400 and 2,900 years BP. The data demonstrates that the 2004 tsunami was just the latest in a sequence of devastating tsunamis stretching back to at least the early Holocene and suggests a high likelihood for future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. The sedimentary record in the cave shows that ruptures of the Sunda megathrust vary between large (which generated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and smaller slip failures. The chronology of events suggests the recurrence of multiple smaller tsunamis within relatively short time periods, interrupted by long periods of strain accumulation followed by giant tsunamis. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. The very long dormant period suggests that the Sunda megathrust is capable of accumulating large slip deficits between earthquakes. Such a high slip rupture would produce a substantially larger earthquake than the 2004 event. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda Megathrust ruptures as large as that of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The remarkable variability of recurrence suggests that regional hazard mitigation plans should be based upon the high likelihood of future destructive tsunami demonstrated by

  2. ASSIMILATION OF REAL-TIME DEEP SEA BUOY DATA FOR TSUNAMI FORECASTING ALONG THAILAND’S ANDAMAN COASTLINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seree Supharatid

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami enhanced the necessity for a tsunami early warning system for countries bordering the Indian Ocean, including Thailand. This paper describes the assimilation of real-time deep sea buoy data for tsunami forecasting along Thailand’s Andaman coastline. Firstly, the numerical simulation (by the linear and non-linear shallow water equations was carried out for hypothetical cases of tsunamigenic earthquakes with epicenters located in the Andaman micro plate. Outputs of the numerical model are tsunami arrival times and the maximum wave height that can be expected at 58 selected communities along Thailand Andaman coastline and two locations of DART buoys in the Indian Ocean. Secondly, a “neural” network model (GRNN was developed to access the data from the numerical computations for subsequent construction of a tsunami database that can be displayed on a web-based system. This database can be updated with the integration from two DART buoys and from several GRNN models.

  3. Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakar, Din Mohammad; Naeem, Ghazala; Usman, Abdullah; Hasan, Haider; Lohdi, Hira; Srinivasalu, Seshachalam; Andrade, Vanessa; Rajendran, C.P.; Naderi Beni, Abdolmajid; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Hoffmann, Goesta; Al Balushi, Noora; Gale, Nora; Kodijat, Ardito; Fritz, Hermann M.; Atwater, Brian F.

    2014-01-01

    Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.

  4. Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

    2017-12-01

    Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

  5. Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Joseph, Antony

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

  6. Tsunamis generated by long and thin granular landslides in a large flume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Garrett S.; Andy Take, W.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; McDougall, Scott

    2017-01-01

    In this experimental study, granular material is released down slope to investigate landslide-generated waves. Starting with a known volume and initial position of the landslide source, detailed data are obtained on the velocity and thickness of the granular flow, the shape and location of the submarine landslide deposit, the amplitude and shape of the near-field wave, the far-field wave evolution, and the wave runup elevation on a smooth impermeable slope. The experiments are performed on a 6.7 m long 30° slope on which gravity accelerates the landslides into a 2.1 m wide and 33.0 m long wave flume that terminates with a 27° runup ramp. For a fixed landslide volume of 0.34 m3, tests are conducted in a range of still water depths from 0.05 to 0.50 m. Observations from high-speed cameras and measurements from wave probes indicate that the granular landslide moves as a long and thin train of material, and that only a portion of the landslide (termed the "effective mass") is engaged in activating the leading wave. The wave behavior is highly dependent on the water depth relative to the size of the landslide. In deeper water, the near-field wave behaves as a stable solitary-like wave, while in shallower water, the wave behaves as a breaking dissipative bore. Overall, the physical model observations are in good agreement with the results of existing empirical equations when the effective mass is used to predict the maximum near-field wave amplitude, the far-field amplitude, and the runup of tsunamis generated by granular landslides.

  7. Approximate maximum parsimony and ancestral maximum likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alon, Noga; Chor, Benny; Pardi, Fabio; Rapoport, Anat

    2010-01-01

    We explore the maximum parsimony (MP) and ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) criteria in phylogenetic tree reconstruction. Both problems are NP-hard, so we seek approximate solutions. We formulate the two problems as Steiner tree problems under appropriate distances. The gist of our approach is the succinct characterization of Steiner trees for a small number of leaves for the two distances. This enables the use of known Steiner tree approximation algorithms. The approach leads to a 16/9 approximation ratio for AML and asymptotically to a 1.55 approximation ratio for MP.

  8. The tsunami probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Example of accident sequence analysis of tsunami PRA according to the standard for procedure of tsunami PRA for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohara, Norihiro; Hasegawa, Keiko; Kuroiwa, Katsuya

    2013-01-01

    After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, standard for procedure of tsunami PRA for NPP had been established by the Standardization Committee of AESJ. Industry group had been conducting analysis of Tsunami PRA for PWR based on the standard under the cooperation with electric utilities. This article introduced overview of the standard and examples of accident sequence analysis of Tsunami PRA studied by the industry group according to the standard. The standard consisted of (1) investigation of NPP's composition, characteristics and site information, (2) selection of relevant components for Tsunami PRA and initiating events and identification of accident sequence, (3) evaluation of Tsunami hazards, (4) fragility evaluation of building and components and (5) evaluation of accident sequence. Based on the evaluation, countermeasures for further improvement of safety against Tsunami could be identified by the sensitivity analysis. (T. Tanaka)

  9. Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

    2015-04-01

    This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

  10. Geological effects and implications of the 2010 tsunami along the central coast of Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Buckley, M.L.; Richmond, B.M.

    2011-01-01

    Geological effects of the 2010 Chilean tsunami were quantified at five near-field sites along a 200. km segment of coast located between the two zones of predominant fault slip. Field measurements, including topography, flow depths, flow directions, scour depths, and deposit thicknesses, provide insights into the processes and morphological changes associated with tsunami inundation and return flow. The superposition of downed trees recorded multiple strong onshore and alongshore flows that arrived at different times and from different directions. The most likely explanation for the diverse directions and timing of coastal inundation combines (1) variable fault rupture and asymmetrical slip displacement of the seafloor away from the epicenter with (2) resonant amplification of coastal edge waves. Other possible contributing factors include local interaction of incoming flow and return flow and delayed wave reflection by the southern coast of Peru. Coastal embayments amplified the maximum inundation distances at two sites (2.4 and 2.6. km, respectively). Tsunami vertical erosion included scour and planation of the land surface, inundation scour around the bases of trees, and channel incision from return flow. Sheets and wedges of sand and gravel were deposited at all of the sites. Locally derived boulders up to 1. m in diameter were transported as much as 400. m inland and deposited as fields of dispersed clasts. The presence of lobate bedforms at one site indicates that at least some of the late-stage sediment transport was as bed load and not as suspended load. Most of the tsunami deposits were less than 25. cm thick. Exceptions were thick deposits near open-ocean river mouths where sediment supply was abundant. Human alterations of the land surface at most of the sites provided opportunities to examine some tsunami effects that otherwise would not have been possible, including flow histories, boulder dispersion, and vegetation controls on deposit thickness

  11. Geological impacts and implications of the 2010 tsunami along the central coast of Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Buckley, Mark L.; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2011-01-01

    Geological effects of the 2010 Chilean tsunami were quantified at five near-field sites along a 200 km segment of coast located between the two zones of predominant fault slip. Field measurements, including topography, flow depths, flow directions, scour depths, and deposit thicknesses, provide insights into the processes and morphological changes associated with tsunami inundation and return flow. The superposition of downed trees recorded multiple strong onshore and alongshore flows that arrived at different times and from different directions. The most likely explanation for the diverse directions and timing of coastal inundation combines (1) variable fault rupture and asymmetrical slip displacement of the seafloor away from the epicenter with (2) resonant amplification of coastal edge waves. Other possible contributing factors include local interaction of incoming flow and return flow and delayed wave reflection by the southern coast of Peru. Coastal embayments amplified the maximum inundation distances at two sites (2.4 and 2.6 km, respectively). Tsunami vertical erosion included scour and planation of the land surface, inundation scour around the bases of trees, and channel incision from return flow. Sheets and wedges of sand and gravel were deposited at all of the sites. Locally derived boulders up to 1 m in diameter were transported as much as 400 m inland and deposited as fields of dispersed clasts. The presence of lobate bedforms at one site indicates that at least some of the late-stage sediment transport was as bed load and not as suspended load. Most of the tsunami deposits were less than 25 cm thick. Exceptions were thick deposits near open-ocean river mouths where sediment supply was abundant. Human alterations of the land surface at most of the sites provided opportunities to examine some tsunami effects that otherwise would not have been possible, including flow histories, boulder dispersion, and vegetation controls on deposit thickness.

  12. Maximum permissible dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1979-01-01

    This chapter presents a historic overview of the establishment of radiation guidelines by various national and international agencies. The use of maximum permissible dose and maximum permissible body burden limits to derive working standards is discussed

  13. Calculation of Tsunami Damage and preparation of Inundation Maps by 2D and 3D numerical modeling in Göcek, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer Sozdinler, C.; Arikawa, T.; Necmioglu, O.; Ozel, N. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Aegean and its surroundings form the most active part of the Africa-Eurasia collision zone responsible for the high level of seismicity in this region. It constitutes more than 60% of the expected seismicity in Europe up to Mw=8.2 (Moratto et al., 2007; Papazachos, 1990). Shaw and Jackson (2010) argued that the existing system of Hellenic Arc subduction-zone is capable of allowing very large but rare earthquakes on splay faults, such as the one occurred in 365, together with the contribution of small earthquakes. Based on an extensive earthquake generated tsunami scenario database, Necmioğlu and Özel (2015) showed that maximum wave heights in the Eastern Mediterranean for shallow earthquakes defined is >3 m in locations in, around and orthogonal to the Hellenic Arc. Considering the seismicity and the tsunami potential in Eastern Mediterranean, the investigation and monitoring of earthquake and tsunami hazard, and the preparation of mitigation strategies and national resilience plans would become inevitable in Turkey. Gocek town, as one of the Tsunami Forecast Points having a unique geography with many small bays and islands and a very popular touristic destination especially for yachtsmen, is selected in this study for the tsunami modeling by using high resolution bathymetric and topographic data with less than 4m grid size. The tsunami analyses are performed by the numerical codes NAMIDANCE (NAMIDANCE,2011) for 2D modeling and STOC-CADMAS (Arikawa,2014) for 3D modeling for the calculations of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters. Froude numbers, as one of the most important indicators for tsunami damage (Ozer, 2012) and the directions of current velocities inside marinas are solved by NAMIDANCE while STOC-CADMAS determines the tsunami pressure and force exerted onto the sea and land structures with 3D and non-hydrostatic approaches. The results are then used to determine the tsunami inundation and structural resilience and establish the tsunami preparedness and

  14. Design for tsunami barrier wall based on numerical analyses of tsunami inundation at Shimane Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiyoshige, Naoya; Yoshitsugu, Shinich; Kawahara, Kazufumi; Ookubo, Yoshimi; Nishihata, Takeshi; Ino, Hitoshi; Kotoura, Tsuyoshi

    2014-01-01

    The conventional tsunami assessment of the active fault beneath the Japan sea in front of the Shimane nuclear power plant and the earthquake feared to happen at the eastern margin of the Japan sea does not expect a huge tsunami as to be assumed on the Pacific sea coast. Hence, the huge tsunami observed at the power plant located near the source of the Tohoku Pacific sea earthquake tsunami whose run-up height reached TP+15m is regarded as the level 2 tsunami for the Shimane nuclear power plant and planned to construct the tsunami barrier walls to endure the supposed level 2 tsunami. In this study, the setting of the Level 2 tsunami by using the numerical analysis based on the non-linear shallow water theory and evaluation for the design tsunami wave pressure exerted on the counter measures by using CADMAS-SURF/3D are discussed. The designed tsunami barrier walls which are suitable to the power plant feasibility and decided from the design tsunami wave pressure distribution based on Tanimoto's formulae and standard earthquake ground motion Ss are also addressed. (author)

  15. Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Charles M; Horton, Benjamin P; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C

    2017-07-19

    The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

  16. Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.

    2013-12-01

    Outreach and education save lives, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has a new tool--a YouTube Channel--to advance its mission to protect lives and property from dangerous tsunamis. Such outreach and education is critical for coastal populations nearest an earthquake since they may not get an official warning before a tsunami reaches them and will need to know what to do when they feel strong shaking. Those who live far enough away to receive useful official warnings and react to them, however, can also benefit from PTWC's education and outreach efforts. They can better understand a tsunami warning message when they receive one, can better understand the danger facing them, and can better anticipate how events will unfold while the warning is in effect. The same holds true for emergency managers, who have the authority to evacuate the public they serve, and for the news media, critical partners in disseminating tsunami hazard information. PTWC's YouTube channel supplements its formal outreach and education efforts by making its computer animations available 24/7 to anyone with an Internet connection. Though the YouTube channel is only a month old (as of August 2013), it should rapidly develop a large global audience since similar videos on PTWC's Facebook page have reached over 70,000 viewers during organized media events, while PTWC's official web page has received tens of millions of hits during damaging tsunamis. These animations are not mere cartoons but use scientific data and calculations to render graphical depictions of real-world phenomena as accurately as possible. This practice holds true whether the animation is a simple comparison of historic earthquake magnitudes or a complex simulation cycling through thousands of high-resolution data grids to render tsunami waves propagating across an entire ocean basin. PTWC's animations fall into two broad categories. The first group illustrates concepts about seismology and how it is critical to

  17. The double landslide-induced tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, S.; Armigliat, A.; Manucci, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Tonini, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.

    The 2002 crisis of Stromboli culminated on December 30 in a series of mass failures detached from the Sciara del Fuoco, with two main landslides, one submarine followed about 7 min later by a second subaerial. These landslides caused two distinct tsunamis that were seen by most people in the island as a unique event. The double tsunami was strongly damaging, destroying several houses in the waterfront at Ficogrande, Punta Lena, and Scari localities in the northeastern coast of Stromboli. The waves affected also Panarea and were observed in the northern Sicily coast and even in Campania, but with minor effects. There are no direct instrumental records of these tsunamis. What we know resides on (1) observations and quantification of the impact of the waves on the coast, collected in a number of postevent field surveys; (2) interviews of eyewitnesses and a collection of tsunami images (photos and videos) taken by observers; and (3) on results of numerical simulations. In this paper, we propose a critical reconstruction of the events where all the available pieces of information are recomposed to form a coherent and consistent mosaic.

  18. Asteroid-Generated Tsunami and Impact Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.; Aftosmis, M.; Berger, M. J.; Ezzedine, S. M.; Gisler, G.; Jennings, B.; LeVeque, R. J.; Mathias, D.; McCoy, C.; Robertson, D.; Titov, V. V.; Wheeler, L.

    2016-12-01

    The justification for planetary defense comes from a cost/benefit analysis, which includes risk assessment. The contribution from ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall risk. Our group is currently working toward improved understanding of impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunami. The importance of asteroid-generated tsunami research has increased because a new Science Definition Team, at the behest of NASA's Planetary Defense Coordinating Office, is now updating the results of a 2003 study on which our current planetary defense policy is based Our group was formed to address this question on many fronts, including asteroid entry modeling, tsunami generation and propagation simulations, modeling of coastal run-ups, inundation, and consequences, infrastructure damage estimates, and physics-based probabilistic impact risk assessment. We also organized the Second International Workshop on Asteroid Threat Assessment, focused on asteroid-generated tsunami and associated risk (Aug. 23-24, 2016). We will summarize our progress and present the highlights of our workshop, emphasizing its relevance to earth and planetary science. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  19. On the solitary wave paradigm for tsunamis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Per A.; Fuhrman, David R.; Schäffer, Hemming Andreas

    2008-01-01

    Since the 1970s, solitary waves have commonly been used to model tsunamis especially in experimental and mathematical studies. Unfortunately, the link to geophysical scales is not well established, and in this work we question the geophysical relevance of this paradigm. In part 1, we simulate...

  20. Tiché tsunami bez hranic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Konečný, Tomáš

    Roč. 6, č. 24 ( 2008 ), s. 14 ISSN 1801-1446 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70280505 Keywords : food crisis Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography http://www.respekt.cz/search.php?f_search_text=tich%E9+tsunami+bez+hranic

  1. Tsunami hazard assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Renou

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the three-year SCHEMA European project (www.schemaproject.org, we present a generic methodology developed to produce tsunami building vulnerability and impact maps. We apply this methodology to the Moroccan coast. This study focuses on the Bouregreg Valley which is at the junction between Rabat (administrative capital, and Salé. Both present large populations and new infrastructure development. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, Earth Observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this vulnerable area.

    Two tsunami scenarios were studied to estimate a realistic range of hazards on this coast: a worst-case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and a moderate scenario based on the Horseshoe earthquake of 28 February 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed the production of tsunami hazard maps (maximum inundation extent and maximum inundation depths. Moreover, the modelling results of these two scenarios were compared with the historical data available.

    A companion paper to this article (Atillah et al., 2011 presents the following steps of the methodology, namely the elaboration of building damage maps by crossing layers of building vulnerability and the so-inferred inundation depths.

  2. Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

  3. Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

    2014-12-01

    Recently off-shore tsunami observation stations based on cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges are actively being deployed especially in Japan. These cabled systems are designed to provide real-time tsunami data before tsunamis reach coastlines for disaster mitigation purposes. To receive real benefits of these observations, real-time analysis techniques to make an effective use of these data are necessary. A representative study was made by Tsushima et al. (2009) that proposed a method to provide instant tsunami source prediction based on achieving tsunami waveform data. As time passes, the prediction is improved by using updated waveform data. After a tsunami source is predicted, tsunami waveforms are synthesized from pre-computed tsunami Green functions of linear long wave equations. Tsushima et al. (2014) updated the method by combining the tsunami waveform inversion with an instant inversion of coseismic crustal deformation and improved the prediction accuracy and speed in the early stages. For disaster mitigation purposes, real-time predictions of tsunami inundation are also important. In this study, we discuss the possibility of real-time tsunami inundation predictions, which require faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation simulation in addition to instant tsunami source analysis. Although the computational amount is large to solve non-linear shallow water equations for inundation predictions, it has become executable through the recent developments of high performance computing technologies. We conducted parallel computations of tsunami inundation and achieved 6.0 TFLOPS by using 19,000 CPU cores. We employed a leap-frog finite difference method with nested staggered grids of which resolution range from 405 m to 5 m. The resolution ratio of each nested domain was 1/3. Total number of grid points were 13 million, and the time step was 0.1 seconds. Tsunami sources of 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were tested. The inundation prediction up to 2 hours after the

  4. Data Elevator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-04-29

    Data Elevator: Efficient Asynchronous Data Movement in Hierarchical Storage Systems Multi-layer storage subsystems, including SSD-based burst buffers and disk-based parallel file systems (PFS), are becoming part of HPC systems. However, software for this storage hierarchy is still in its infancy. Applications may have to explicitly move data among the storage layers. We propose Data Elevator for transparently and efficiently moving data between a burst buffer and a PFS. Users specify the final destination for their data, typically on PFS, Data Elevator intercepts the I/O calls, stages data on burst buffer, and then asynchronously transfers the data to their final destination in the background. This system allows extensive optimizations, such as overlapping read and write operations, choosing I/O modes, and aligning buffer boundaries. In tests with large-scale scientific applications, Data Elevator is as much as 4.2X faster than Cray DataWarp, the start-of-art software for burst buffer, and 4X faster than directly writing to PFS. The Data Elevator library uses HDF5's Virtual Object Layer (VOL) for intercepting parallel I/O calls that write data to PFS. The intercepted calls are redirected to the Data Elevator, which provides a handle to write the file in a faster and intermediate burst buffer system. Once the application finishes writing the data to the burst buffer, the Data Elevator job uses HDF5 to move the data to final destination in an asynchronous manner. Hence, using the Data Elevator library is currently useful for applications that call HDF5 for writing data files. Also, the Data Elevator depends on the HDF5 VOL functionality.

  5. Mexican Earthquakes and Tsunamis Catalog Reviewed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Castillo-Aja, R.

    2015-12-01

    Today the availability of information on the internet makes online catalogs very easy to access by both scholars and the public in general. The catalog in the "Significant Earthquake Database", managed by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI formerly NCDC), NOAA, allows access by deploying tabular and cartographic data related to earthquakes and tsunamis contained in the database. The NCEI catalog is the product of compiling previously existing catalogs, historical sources, newspapers, and scientific articles. Because NCEI catalog has a global coverage the information is not homogeneous. Existence of historical information depends on the presence of people in places where the disaster occurred, and that the permanence of the description is preserved in documents and oral tradition. In the case of instrumental data, their availability depends on the distribution and quality of seismic stations. Therefore, the availability of information for the first half of 20th century can be improved by careful analysis of the available information and by searching and resolving inconsistencies. This study shows the advances we made in upgrading and refining data for the earthquake and tsunami catalog of Mexico since 1500 CE until today, presented in the format of table and map. Data analysis allowed us to identify the following sources of error in the location of the epicenters in existing catalogs: • Incorrect coordinate entry • Place name erroneous or mistaken • Too general data that makes difficult to locate the epicenter, mainly for older earthquakes • Inconsistency of earthquakes and the tsunami occurrence: earthquake's epicenter located too far inland reported as tsunamigenic. The process of completing the catalogs directly depends on the availability of information; as new archives are opened for inspection, there are more opportunities to complete the history of large earthquakes and tsunamis in Mexico. Here, we also present new earthquake and

  6. Earthquake and Tsunami: a movie and a book for seismic and tsunami risk reduction in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nostro, C.; Baroux, E.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Tertulliani, A.; Castellano, C.; Arcoraci, L.; Casale, P.; Ciaccio, M. G.; Frepoli, A.

    2009-04-01

    Italy is a country well known for the seismic and volcanic hazard. However, a similarly great hazard, although not well recognized, is posed by the occurrence of tsunami waves along the Italian coastline. This is testified by a rich catalogue and by field evidence of deposits left over by pre- and historical tsunamis, even in places today considered safe. This observation is of great importance since many of the areas affected by tsunamis in the past are today touristic places. The Italian tsunamis can be caused by different sources: 1- off-shore or near coast in-land earthquakes; 2- very large earthquakes on distant sources in the Mediterranean; 3- submarine volcanic explosion in the Tyrrhenian sea; 4- submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity. The consequence of such a wide spectrum of sources is that an important part of the more than 7000 km long Italian coast line is exposed to the tsunami risk, and thousands of inhabitants (with numbers increasing during summer) live near hazardous coasts. The main historical tsunamis are the 1783 and 1908 events that hit Calabrian and Sicilian coasts. The recent tsunami is that caused by the 2002 Stromboli landslide. In order to reduce this risk and following the emotional impact of the December 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, we developed an outreach program consisting in talks given by scientists and in a movie and a book, both exploring the causes of the tsunami waves, how do they propagate in deep and shallow waters, and what are the effects on the coasts. Hints are also given on the most dangerous Italian coasts (as deduced by scientific studies), and how to behave in the case of a tsunami approaching the coast. These seminars are open to the general public, but special programs are developed with schools of all grades. In this talk we want to present the book and the movie used during the seminars and scientific expositions, that was realized from a previous 3D version originally

  7. A tsunami PSA methodology and application for NPP site in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In-Kil

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A methodology of tsunami PSA was developed in this study. ► Tsunami return period was evaluated by empirical method using historical tsunami record and tidal gauge record. ► Procedure of tsunami fragility analysis was established and target equipments and structures for investigation of tsunami fragility assessment were selected. ► A sample fragility calculation was performed for the equipment in Nuclear Power Plant. ► Accident sequence of tsunami event is developed by according to the tsunami run-up and draw down, and tsunami induced core damage frequency (CDF) is determined. - Abstract: A methodology of tsunami PSA was developed in this study. A tsunami PSA consists of tsunami hazard analysis, tsunami fragility analysis and system analysis. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, evaluation of tsunami return period is a major task. For the evaluation of tsunami return period, numerical analysis and empirical method can be applied. In this study, tsunami return period was evaluated by empirical method using historical tsunami record and tidal gauge record. For the performing a tsunami fragility analysis, procedure of tsunami fragility analysis was established and target equipments and structures for investigation of tsunami fragility assessment were selected. A sample fragility calculation was performed for the equipment in Nuclear Power Plant. In the case of system analysis, accident sequence of tsunami event is developed by according to the tsunami run-up and draw down, and tsunami induced core damage frequency (CDF) is determined. For the application to the real Nuclear Power Plant, the Ulchin 56 NPP which located in east coast of Korean peninsula was selected. Through this study, whole tsunami PSA working procedure was established and example calculation was performed for one of real Nuclear Power Plant in Korea. But for more accurate tsunami PSA result, there are many researches needed for evaluation of hydrodynamic force, effect of

  8. Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Kenji

    2018-01-01

    Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non–double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved. PMID:29740604

  9. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami concerns have increased in the world after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Consequently, tsunami models have been developed rapidly in the last few years. One of the advanced tsunami models is the GeoClaw tsunami model introduced by LeVeque (2011). This model is adaptive and consistent. Because of different sources of uncertainties in the model, observations are needed to improve model prediction through a data assimilation framework. Model inputs are earthquake parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while the smoother operates smoothing to estimate the earthquake parameters. This method reduces the error produced by uncertain inputs. In addition, state-parameter EnKF is implemented to estimate earthquake parameters. Although number of observations is small, estimated parameters generates a better tsunami prediction than the model. Methods and results of prediction experiments in the Red Sea are presented and the prospect of developing an operational tsunami prediction system in the Red Sea is discussed.

  10. A Tsunami Fragility Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil; Kang, Keum Seok

    2009-01-01

    Although Tsunami events were defined as an external event in 'PRA Procedure Guide (NUREG/CR- 2300)'after 1982, a Tsunami event was not considered in a design and construction of NPP before the Sumatra earthquake in 2004. But the Madras Atomic Power Station, a commercial nuclear power plant owned and operated by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), and located near Chennai, India, was affected by the tsunami generated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (USNRC 2008). The condenser cooling pumps of Unit 2 of the installation were affected due to flooding of the pump house and subsequent submergence of the seawater pumps by tsunami waves. The turbine was tripped and the reactor shut down. The unit was brought to a cold-shutdown state, and the shutdown-cooling systems were reported as operating safely. After this event, Tsunami hazards were considered as one of the major natural disasters which can affect the safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The IAEA performed an Extrabudgetary project for Tsunami Hazard Assessment and finally an International Seismic Safety Center (ISSC) established in IAEA for protection from natural disasters like earthquake, tsunami etc. For this reason, a tsunami hazard assessment method determined in this study. At first, a procedure for tsunami hazard assessment method was established, and second target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. Finally, a sample fragility calculation was performed for one of equipment in Nuclear Power Plant

  11. A BRIEF HISTORY OF TSUNAMIS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A. Lockridge

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The area of the Caribbean Sea is geologically active. Earthquakes and volcanoes are common occurrences. These geologic events can generate powerful tsunamis some of which are more devastating than the earthquake or volcanic eruption itself. This document lists brief descriptions of 91 reported waves that might have been tsunamis within the Caribbean region. Of these, 27 are judged by the authors to be true, verified tsunamis and an additional nine are considered to be very likely true tsunamis. The additional 53 events either are not described with sufficient detail in the literature to verify their tsunami nature or are judged to be reports of other phenomenasuch as sea quakes or hurricane storm surges which may have been reported as tsunamis. Included in these 91 reports are teletsunamis, tectonic tsunamis, landslide tsunamis, and volcanic tsunamis that have caused major damage and deaths. Nevertheless, in recent history these events have been relatively rare. In the interim since the last major tsunami event in the Caribbean Sea the coastal regions have greatly increased in population. Coastal development has also increased. Today tourism is a major industry that exposes thousands of non-residents to the disastrous effects of a tsunami. These factors make the islands in this region much more vulnerable today than they were when the last major tsunami occurred in this area. This paper gives an overview of the tsunami history in the area. This history illustrates what can be expected in the future from this geologic hazard and provides information that will be useful for mitigation purposes.

  12. Historical Tsunami Records on Russian Island, the Sea of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razjigaeva, N. G.; Ganzey, L. A.; Grebennikova, T. A.; Arslanov, Kh. A.; Ivanova, E. D.; Ganzey, K. S.; Kharlamov, A. A.

    2018-03-01

    In this article, we provide data evidencing tsunamis on Russian Island over the last 700 years. Reconstructions are developed based on the analyses of peat bog sections on the coast of Spokoynaya Bay, including layers of tsunami sands. Ancient beach sands under peat were deposited during the final phase of transgression of the Medieval Warm Period. We used data on diatoms and benthic foraminifers to identify the marine origin of the sands. The grain size compositions of the tsunami deposits were used to determine the sources of material carried by the tsunamis. The chronology of historical tsunamis was determined based on the radiocarbon dating of the underlying organic deposits. There was a stated difference between the deposition environments during tsunamis and large storms during the Goni (2015) and Lionrock (2016) typhoons. Tsunami deposits from 1983 and 1993 were found in the upper part of the sections. The inundation of the 1993 tsunami did not exceed 20 m or a height of 0.5 m a.m.s.l. (0.3 above high tide). The more intensive tsunami of 1983 had a run-up of 0.65 m a.m.s.l. and penetrated inland from the shoreline up to 40 m. Sand layer of tsunami 1940 extend in land up to 50 m from the present shoreline. Evidence of six tsunamis was elicited from the peat bog sections, the deposits of which are located 60 m from the modern coastal line. The deposits of strong historic tsunamis in the Japan Sea region in 1833, 1741, 1614 (or 1644), 1448, the XIV-XV century and 1341 were also identified on Russian Island. Their run-ups and inundation distances were also determined. The strong historic tsunamis appeared to be more intensive than those of the XX century, and considering the sea level drop during the Little Ice Age, the inundation distances were as large as 250 m.

  13. Historical Tsunami Records on Russian Island, the Sea of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razjigaeva, N. G.; Ganzey, L. A.; Grebennikova, T. A.; Arslanov, Kh. A.; Ivanova, E. D.; Ganzey, K. S.; Kharlamov, A. A.

    2018-04-01

    In this article, we provide data evidencing tsunamis on Russian Island over the last 700 years. Reconstructions are developed based on the analyses of peat bog sections on the coast of Spokoynaya Bay, including layers of tsunami sands. Ancient beach sands under peat were deposited during the final phase of transgression of the Medieval Warm Period. We used data on diatoms and benthic foraminifers to identify the marine origin of the sands. The grain size compositions of the tsunami deposits were used to determine the sources of material carried by the tsunamis. The chronology of historical tsunamis was determined based on the radiocarbon dating of the underlying organic deposits. There was a stated difference between the deposition environments during tsunamis and large storms during the Goni (2015) and Lionrock (2016) typhoons. Tsunami deposits from 1983 and 1993 were found in the upper part of the sections. The inundation of the 1993 tsunami did not exceed 20 m or a height of 0.5 m a.m.s.l. (0.3 above high tide). The more intensive tsunami of 1983 had a run-up of 0.65 m a.m.s.l. and penetrated inland from the shoreline up to 40 m. Sand layer of tsunami 1940 extend in land up to 50 m from the present shoreline. Evidence of six tsunamis was elicited from the peat bog sections, the deposits of which are located 60 m from the modern coastal line. The deposits of strong historic tsunamis in the Japan Sea region in 1833, 1741, 1614 (or 1644), 1448, the XIV-XV century and 1341 were also identified on Russian Island. Their run-ups and inundation distances were also determined. The strong historic tsunamis appeared to be more intensive than those of the XX century, and considering the sea level drop during the Little Ice Age, the inundation distances were as large as 250 m.

  14. Statistical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Seawalls and Coastal Forests in Mitigating Tsunami Impacts in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshanak Nateghi

    Full Text Available The Pacific coast of the Tohoku region of Japan experiences repeated tsunamis, with the most recent events having occurred in 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011. These events have caused large loss of life and damage throughout the coastal region. There is uncertainty about the degree to which seawalls reduce deaths and building damage during tsunamis in Japan. On the one hand they provide physical protection against tsunamis as long as they are not overtopped and do not fail. On the other hand, the presence of a seawall may induce a false sense of security, encouraging additional development behind the seawall and reducing evacuation rates during an event. We analyze municipality-level and sub-municipality-level data on the impacts of the 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011 tsunamis, finding that seawalls larger than 5 m in height generally have served a protective role in these past events, reducing both death rates and the damage rates of residential buildings. However, seawalls smaller than 5 m in height appear to have encouraged development in vulnerable areas and exacerbated damage. We also find that the extent of flooding is a critical factor in estimating both death rates and building damage rates, suggesting that additional measures, such as multiple lines of defense and elevating topography, may have significant benefits in reducing the impacts of tsunamis. Moreover, the area of coastal forests was found to be inversely related to death and destruction rates, indicating that forests either mitigated the impacts of these tsunamis, or displaced development that would otherwise have been damaged.

  15. An elevator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loginovskiy, V.I.; Medinger, N.V.; Rasskazov, V.A.; Solonitsyn, V.A.

    1983-01-01

    An elevator is proposed which includes a body, spring loaded cams and a shut-off ring. To increase the reliability of the elevator by eliminating the possibility of spontaneous shifting of the shut-off ring, the latter is equipped with handles hinged to it and is made with evolvent grooves. The cams are equipped with rollers installed in the evolvent grooves of the shut off ring, where the body is made with grooves for the handles.

  16. The 2006 July 17 Java (Indonesia) tsunami from satellite imagery and numerical modelling: a single or complex source?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, H.; Burg, P.-E.; Binet, R.; Lavigne, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Schindelé, F.

    2012-12-01

    The Mw 7.8 2006 July 17 earthquake off the southern coast of Java, Indonesia, has been responsible for a very large tsunami causing more than 700 casualties. The tsunami has been observed on at least 200 km of coastline in the region of Pangandaran (West Java), with run-up heights from 5 to more than 20 m. Such a large tsunami, with respect to the source magnitude, has been attributed to the slow character of the seismic rupture, defining the event as a so-called tsunami earthquake, but it has also been suggested that the largest run-up heights are actually the result of a second local landslide source. Here we test whether a single slow earthquake source can explain the tsunami run-up, using a combination of new detailed data in the region of the largest run-ups and comparison with modelled run-ups for a range of plausible earthquake source models. Using high-resolution satellite imagery (SPOT 5 and Quickbird), the coastal impact of the tsunami is refined in the surroundings of the high-security Permisan prison on Nusa Kambangan island, where 20 m run-up had been recorded directly after the event. These data confirm the extreme inundation lengths close to the prison, and extend the area of maximum impact further along the Nusa Kambangan island (about 20 km of shoreline), where inundation lengths reach several hundreds of metres, suggesting run-up as high as 10-15 m. Tsunami modelling has been conducted in detail for the high run-up Permisan area (Nusa Kambangan) and the PLTU power plant about 25 km eastwards, where run-up reached only 4-6 m and a video recording of the tsunami arrival is available. For the Permisan prison a high-resolution DEM was built from stereoscopic satellite imagery. The regular basin of the PLTU plant was designed using photographs and direct observations. For the earthquake's mechanism, both static (infinite) and finite (kinematic) ruptures are investigated using two published source models. The models account rather well for the sea level

  17. Uncertainty quantification and inference of Manning's friction coefficients using DART buoy data during the Tōhoku tsunami

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab; Mandli, Kyle T.; Knio, Omar; Dawson, Clint N.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    Tsunami computational models are employed to explore multiple flooding scenarios and to predict water elevations. However, accurate estimation of water elevations requires accurate estimation of many model parameters including the Manning's n friction parameterization. Our objective is to develop an efficient approach for the uncertainty quantification and inference of the Manning's n coefficient which we characterize here by three different parameters set to be constant in the on-shore, near-shore and deep-water regions as defined using iso-baths. We use Polynomial Chaos (PC) to build an inexpensive surrogate for the G. eoC. law model and employ Bayesian inference to estimate and quantify uncertainties related to relevant parameters using the DART buoy data collected during the Tōhoku tsunami. The surrogate model significantly reduces the computational burden of the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the Bayesian inference. The PC surrogate is also used to perform a sensitivity analysis.

  18. Uncertainty quantification and inference of Manning's friction coefficients using DART buoy data during the Tōhoku tsunami

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab

    2014-11-01

    Tsunami computational models are employed to explore multiple flooding scenarios and to predict water elevations. However, accurate estimation of water elevations requires accurate estimation of many model parameters including the Manning\\'s n friction parameterization. Our objective is to develop an efficient approach for the uncertainty quantification and inference of the Manning\\'s n coefficient which we characterize here by three different parameters set to be constant in the on-shore, near-shore and deep-water regions as defined using iso-baths. We use Polynomial Chaos (PC) to build an inexpensive surrogate for the G. eoC. law model and employ Bayesian inference to estimate and quantify uncertainties related to relevant parameters using the DART buoy data collected during the Tōhoku tsunami. The surrogate model significantly reduces the computational burden of the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the Bayesian inference. The PC surrogate is also used to perform a sensitivity analysis.

  19. Monocular Elevation Deficiency - Double Elevator Palsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español Condiciones Chinese Conditions Monocular Elevation Deficiency/ Double Elevator Palsy En Español Read in Chinese What is monocular elevation deficiency (Double Elevator Palsy)? Monocular Elevation Deficiency, also known by the ...

  20. Elevator deflections on the icing process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Randall K.

    1990-01-01

    The effect of elevator deflection of the horizontal stabilizer for certain icing parameters is investigated. Elevator deflection can severely change the lower and upper leading-edge impingement limits, and ice can accrete on the elevator itself. Also, elevator deflection had practically no effect on the maximum local collection efficiency. It is shown that for severe icing conditions (large water droplets), elevator deflections that increase the projected height of the airfoil can significantly increase the total collection efficiency of the airfoil.

  1. IMPORTANCE OF MANGROVE TO REDUCE THE TSUNAMI WAVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasia Neni Candra Purnamasari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove has a very important role to reduce the tsunami wave energy. It is shown that the coastal areas have no vegetation or in this case will have an impact Mangrove forests greater damage due to tsunami waves than the coastal areas of vegetation. The purpose of the Term Paper is proved the importance of Mangrove to reduce the tsunami wave energy by comparing the various methods that have been observed in some case studies on the impact of the tsunami that occurred in several Asian countries in 2004 and case studies on ocean waves on the Gulf coast of south Florida. Based on the research results that could dampen Mangrove Tsunami wave energy. Tsunami wave energy can be reduced by several factors, namely mangrove species, tree size, vast mangrove forest, nature tree structure, and the size limit Mangrove forest (as far as how much of the ocean to the surface.

  2. Complex behavior of elevators in peak traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi

    2003-08-01

    We study the dynamical behavior of elevators in the morning peak traffic. We present a stochastic model of the elevators to take into account the interactions between elevators through passengers. The dynamics of the elevators is expressed in terms of a coupled nonlinear map with noises. The number of passengers carried by an elevator and the time-headway between elevators exhibit the complex behavior with varying elevator trips. It is found that the behavior of elevators exhibits a deterministic chaos even if there are no noises. The chaotic motion depends on the loading parameter, the maximum capacity of an elevator, and the number of elevators. When the loading parameter is superior to the threshold, each elevator carries a full load of passengers throughout its trip. The dependence of the threshold (transition point) on the elevator capacity is clarified.

  3. Identification of tsunami deposits considering the tsunami waveform: An example of subaqueous tsunami deposits in Holocene shallow bay on southern Boso Peninsula, Central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Osamu; Kamataki, Takanobu

    2007-08-01

    This study proposes a tsunami depositional model based on observations of emerged Holocene tsunami deposits in outcrops located in eastern Japan. The model is also applicable to the identification of other deposits, such as those laid down by storms. The tsunami deposits described were formed in a small bay of 10-20-m water depth, and are mainly composed of sand and gravel. They show various sedimentary structures, including hummocky cross-stratification (HCS) and inverse and normal grading. Although, individually, the sedimentary structures are similar to those commonly found in storm deposits, the combination of vertical stacking in the tsunami deposits makes a unique pattern. This vertical stacking of internal structures is due to the waveform of the source tsunamis, reflecting: 1) extremely long wavelengths and wave period, and 2) temporal changes of wave sizes from the beginning to end of the tsunamis. The tsunami deposits display many sub-layers with scoured and graded structures. Each sub-layer, especially in sandy facies, is characterized by HCS and inverse and normal grading that are the result of deposition from prolonged high-energy sediment flows. The vertical stack of sub-layers shows incremental deposition from the repeated sediment flows. Mud drapes cover the sub-layers and indicate the existence of flow-velocity stagnant stages between each sediment flow. Current reversals within the sub-layers indicate the repeated occurrence of the up- and return-flows. The tsunami deposits are vertically divided into four depositional units, Tna to Tnd in ascending order, reflecting the temporal change of wave sizes in the tsunami wave trains. Unit Tna is relatively fine-grained and indicative of small tsunami waves during the early stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnb is a protruding coarse-grained and thickest-stratified division and is the result of a relatively large wave group during the middle stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnc is a fine alternation of thin sand

  4. Microbial ecology of Thailand tsunami and non-tsunami affected terrestrials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somboonna, Naraporn; Wilantho, Alisa; Jankaew, Kruawun; Assawamakin, Anunchai; Sangsrakru, Duangjai; Tangphatsornruang, Sithichoke; Tongsima, Sissades

    2014-01-01

    The effects of tsunamis on microbial ecologies have been ill-defined, especially in Phang Nga province, Thailand. This ecosystem was catastrophically impacted by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as well as the 600 year-old tsunami in Phra Thong island, Phang Nga province. No study has been conducted to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. This study represents the first to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. We utilized metagenomics with 16S and 18S rDNA-barcoded pyrosequencing to obtain prokaryotic and eukaryotic profiles for this terrestrial site, tsunami affected (S1), as well as a parallel unaffected terrestrial site, non-tsunami affected (S2). S1 demonstrated unique microbial community patterns than S2. The dendrogram constructed using the prokaryotic profiles supported the unique S1 microbial communities. S1 contained more proportions of archaea and bacteria domains, specifically species belonging to Bacteroidetes became more frequent, in replacing of the other typical floras like Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Basidiomycota. Pathogenic microbes, including Acinetobacter haemolyticus, Flavobacterium spp. and Photobacterium spp., were also found frequently in S1. Furthermore, different metabolic potentials highlighted this microbial community change could impact the functional ecology of the site. Moreover, the habitat prediction based on percent of species indicators for marine, brackish, freshwater and terrestrial niches pointed the S1 to largely comprise marine habitat indicating-species.

  5. Tsunami Simulation Method Assimilating Ocean Bottom Pressure Data Near a Tsunami Source Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Yuichiro

    2018-02-01

    A new method was developed to reproduce the tsunami height distribution in and around the source area, at a certain time, from a large number of ocean bottom pressure sensors, without information on an earthquake source. A dense cabled observation network called S-NET, which consists of 150 ocean bottom pressure sensors, was installed recently along a wide portion of the seafloor off Kanto, Tohoku, and Hokkaido in Japan. However, in the source area, the ocean bottom pressure sensors cannot observe directly an initial ocean surface displacement. Therefore, we developed the new method. The method was tested and functioned well for a synthetic tsunami from a simple rectangular fault with an ocean bottom pressure sensor network using 10 arc-min, or 20 km, intervals. For a test case that is more realistic, ocean bottom pressure sensors with 15 arc-min intervals along the north-south direction and sensors with 30 arc-min intervals along the east-west direction were used. In the test case, the method also functioned well enough to reproduce the tsunami height field in general. These results indicated that the method could be used for tsunami early warning by estimating the tsunami height field just after a great earthquake without the need for earthquake source information.

  6. Numerical tsunami simulations in the western Pacific Ocean and East China Sea from hypothetical M 9 earthquakes along the Nankai trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, Tomoya; Satake, Kenji; Furumura, Takashi

    2017-04-01

    We carried out tsunami numerical simulations in the western Pacific Ocean and East China Sea in order to examine the behavior of massive tsunami outside Japan from the hypothetical M 9 tsunami source models along the Nankai Trough proposed by the Cabinet Office of Japanese government (2012). The distribution of MTHs (maximum tsunami heights for 24 h after the earthquakes) on the east coast of China, the east coast of the Philippine Islands, and north coast of the New Guinea Island show peaks with approximately 1.0-1.7 m,4.0-7.0 m,4.0-5.0 m, respectively. They are significantly higher than that from the 1707 Ho'ei earthquake (M 8.7), the largest earthquake along the Nankai trough in recent Japanese history. Moreover, the MTH distributions vary with the location of the huge slip(s) in the tsunami source models although the three coasts are far from the Nankai trough. Huge slip(s) in the Nankai segment mainly contributes to the MTHs, while huge slip(s) or splay faulting in the Tokai segment hardly affects the MTHs. The tsunami source model was developed for responding to the unexpected occurrence of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, with 11 models along the Nanakai trough, and simulated MTHs along the Pacific coasts of the western Japan from these models exceed 10 m, with a maximum height of 34.4 m. Tsunami propagation was computed by the finite-difference method of the non-liner long-wave equations with the Corioli's force and bottom friction (Satake, 1995) in the area of 115-155 ° E and 8° S-40° N. Because water depth of the East China Sea is shallower than 200 m, the tsunami propagation is likely to be affected by the ocean bottom fiction. The 30 arc-seconds gridded bathymetry data provided by the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO-2014) are used. For long propagation of tsunami we simulated tsunamis for 24 hours after the earthquakes. This study was supported by the"New disaster mitigation research project on Mega thrust earthquakes around Nankai

  7. Near Source 2007 Peru Tsunami Runup Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Broncano, P.; Ortega, E.

    2008-12-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights and massive inundation distances up to 2 km were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. As with all near field tsunamis, the waves struck within minutes of the massive ground shaking. Spontaneous evacuations coordinated by the Peruvian Coast Guard minimized the fatalities and illustrate the importance of community-based education and awareness programs. The residents of the fishing village Lagunilla were unaware of the tsunami hazard after an earthquake and did not evacuate, which resulted in 3 fatalities. Despite the relatively benign tsunami effects at Pisco from this event, the tsunami hazard for this city (and its liquefied natural gas terminal) cannot be underestimated. Between 1687 and 1868, the city of Pisco was destroyed 4 times by tsunami waves. Since then, two events (1974 and 2007) have resulted in partial inundation and moderate damage. The fact that potentially devastating tsunami runup heights were observed immediately south of the peninsula only serves to underscore this point.

  8. Frequency Domain Response at Pacific Coast Harbors to Major Tsunamis of 2005-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Xiuying; Kou, Zhiqing; Huang, Ziyi; Lee, Jiin-Jen

    2013-06-01

    Tsunamis waves caused by submarine earthquake or landslide might contain large wave energy, which could cause significant human loss and property damage locally as well as in distant region. The response of three harbors located at the Pacific coast (i.e. Crescent City Harbor, Los Angeles/Long Beach Port, and San Diego Harbor) to six well-known tsunamis events generated (both near-field and far-field) between 2005 and 2011 are examined and simulated using a hybrid finite element numerical model in frequency domain. The model incorporated the effects of wave refraction, wave diffraction, partial wave reflection from boundaries, entrance and bottom energy dissipation. It can be applied to harbor regions with arbitrary shapes and variable water depth. The computed resonant periods or modes of oscillation for three harbors are in good agreement with the energy spectral analysis of the time series of water surface elevations recorded at tide gauge stations inside three harbors during the six tsunamis events. The computed wave induced currents based on the present model are also in qualitative agreement with some of the reported eye-witness accounts absence of reliable current data. The simulated results show that each harbor responded differently and significantly amplified certain wave period(s) of incident wave trains according to the shape, topography, characteristic dimensions and water depth of the harbor basins.

  9. A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2017-01-01

    Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

  10. Study of tsunami propagation in the Ligurian Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Pelinovsky

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Tsunami propagation is analyzed for the Ligurian Sea with particular attention on the French coasts of the Mediterranean. Historical data of tsunami manifestation on the French coast are analyzed for the period 2000 B.C.–1991 A.D. Numerical simulations of potential and historical tsunamis in the Ligurian Sea are done in the context of the nonlinear shallow water theory. Tsunami wave heights as well as their distribution function is calculated for historical tsunamis and it is shown that the log-normal distribution describes reasonably the simulated data. This demonstrates the particular role of bottom irregularities for the wave height distribution function near the coastlines. Also, spectral analysis of numerical tide-gauge records is done for potential tsunamis, revealing the complex resonant interactions between the tsunami waves and the bottom oscillations. It is shown that for an earthquake magnitude of 6.8 (averaged value for the Mediterranean Sea the tsunami phenomenon has a very local character but with long duration. For sources located near the steep continental slope in the vicinity of the French-Italian Rivera, the tsunami tide-gauge records in the vicinity of Cannes – Imperia present irregular oscillations with a characteristic period of 20–30 min and a total duration of 10–20 h. For the western French coasts the amplitudes are significantly less with characteristic low-frequency oscillations (period of 40 min–1 h.

  11. Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami Loss Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Inundation depth is commonly used as an intensity measure in tsunami fragility analysis. However, inundation depth cannot be taken as the sole representation of tsunami impact on structures, especially when structural damage is caused by hydrodynamic and debris impact forces that are mainly determined by flow velocity. To reflect the influence of flow velocity in addition to inundation depth in tsunami risk assessment, a tsunami loss estimation method that adopts both inundation depth and flow velocity (i.e., bivariate intensity measures in evaluating tsunami damage is developed. To consider a wide range of possible tsunami inundation scenarios, Monte Carlo-based tsunami simulations are performed using stochastic earthquake slip distributions derived from a spectral synthesis method and probabilistic scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters. By focusing on Sendai (plain coast and Onagawa (ria coast in the Miyagi Prefecture of Japan in a case study, the stochastic tsunami loss is evaluated by total economic loss and its spatial distribution at different scales. The results indicate that tsunami loss prediction is highly sensitive to modelling resolution and inclusion of flow velocity for buildings located less than 1 km from the sea for Sendai and Onagawa of Miyagi Prefecture.

  12. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D., E-mail: dmullin@nbpower.com [New Brunswick Power Corporation, Point Lepreau Generating Station, Point Lepreau (Canada); Alcinov, T.; Roussel, P.; Lavine, A.; Arcos, M.E.M.; Hanson, K.; Youngs, R., E-mail: trajce.alcinov@amecfw.com, E-mail: patrick.roussel@amecfw.com [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Dartmouth, NS (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    In 2012 the Geological Survey of Canada published a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in Open File 7201 that presents the most up-to-date information on all potential tsunami sources in a probabilistic framework on a national level, thus providing the underlying basis for conducting site-specific tsunami hazard assessments. However, the assessment identified a poorly constrained hazard for the Atlantic Coastline and recommended further evaluation. As a result, NB Power has embarked on performing a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Point Lepreau Generating Station. This paper provides the methodology and progress or hazard evaluation results for Point Lepreau G.S. (author)

  13. Landslide tsunami hazard in the Indonesian Sunda Arc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Brune

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The Indonesian archipelago is known for the occurrence of catastrophic earthquake-generated tsunamis along the Sunda Arc. The tsunami hazard associated with submarine landslides however has not been fully addressed. In this paper, we compile the known tsunamigenic events where landslide involvement is certain and summarize the properties of published landslides that were identified with geophysical methods. We depict novel mass movements, found in newly available bathymetry, and determine their key parameters. Using numerical modeling, we compute possible tsunami scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a way of identifying landslide tsunamis using an array of few buoys with bottom pressure units.

  14. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  15. Tsunami waveform inversion by numerical finite-elements Green’s functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Piatanesi

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last few years, the steady increase in the quantity and quality of the data concerning tsunamis has led to an increasing interest in the inversion problem for tsunami data. This work addresses the usually ill-posed problem of the hydrodynamical inversion of tsunami tide-gage records to infer the initial sea perturbation. We use an inversion method for which the data space consists of a given number of waveforms and the model parameter space is represented by the values of the initial water elevation field at a given number of points. The forward model, i.e. the calculation of the synthetic tide-gage records from an initial water elevation field, is based on the linear shallow water equations and is simply solved by applying the appropriate Green’s functions to the known initial state. The inversion of tide-gage records to determine the initial state results in the least square inversion of a rectangular system of linear equations. When the inversions are unconstrained, we found that in order to attain good results, the dimension of the data space has to be much larger than that of the model space parameter. We also show that a large number of waveforms is not sufficient to ensure a good inversion if the corresponding stations do not have a good azimuthal coverage with respect to source directivity. To improve the inversions we use the available a priori information on the source, generally coming from the inversion of seismological data. In this paper we show how to implement very common information about a tsunamigenic seismic source, i.e. the earthquake source region, as a set of spatial constraints. The results are very satisfactory, since even a rough localisation of the source enables us to invert correctly the initial elevation field.

  16. The 2014 Lake Askja rockslide tsunami - optimization of landslide parameters comparing numerical simulations with observed run-up

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sif Gylfadóttir, Sigríður; Kim, Jihwan; Kristinn Helgason, Jón; Brynjólfsson, Sveinn; Höskuldsson, Ármann; Jóhannesson, Tómas; Bonnevie Harbitz, Carl; Løvholt, Finn

    2016-04-01

    The Askja central volcano is located in the Northern Volcanic Zone of Iceland. Within the main caldera an inner caldera was formed in an eruption in 1875 and over the next 40 years it gradually subsided and filled up with water, forming Lake Askja. A large rockslide was released from the Southeast margin of the inner caldera into Lake Askja on 21 July 2014. The release zone was located from 150 m to 350 m above the water level and measured 800 m across. The volume of the rockslide is estimated to have been 15-30 million m3, of which 10.5 million m3 was deposited in the lake, raising the water level by almost a meter. The rockslide caused a large tsunami that traveled across the lake, and inundated the shores around the entire lake after 1-2 minutes. The vertical run-up varied typically between 10-40 m, but in some locations close to the impact area it ranged up to 70 m. Lake Askja is a popular destination visited by tens of thousands of tourists every year but as luck would have it, the event occurred near midnight when no one was in the area. Field surveys conducted in the months following the event resulted in an extensive dataset. The dataset contains e.g. maximum inundation, high-resolution digital elevation model of the entire inner caldera, as well as a high resolution bathymetry of the lake displaying the landslide deposits. Using these data, a numerical model of the Lake Askja landslide and tsunami was developed using GeoClaw, a software package for numerical analysis of geophysical flow problems. Both the shallow water version and an extension of GeoClaw that includes dispersion, was employed to simulate the wave generation, propagation, and run-up due to the rockslide plunging into the lake. The rockslide was modeled as a block that was allowed to stretch during run-out after entering the lake. An optimization approach was adopted to constrain the landslide parameters through inverse modeling by comparing the calculated inundation with the observed run

  17. Has the tsunami arrived? Part II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halverson, Dean; Glowac, Wayne

    2009-01-01

    Healthcare is an industry in the midst of significant change. After years of double-digit cost increases, the system has reached a tipping point. Where once only employers were heard crying out for change, the call is now coming from all levels of American society. The voice that is most important to effect change is the newest--that of the consumer. In part two of our overview of the healthcare tsunami, we hope to offer you some insights and practical ideas on how to improve the return on investment of your marketing. We believe those who work to understand the new market forces and react with insight will not just survive during the tsunami, they will thrive.

  18. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support

  19. Maximum Acceleration Recording Circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Coarsely digitized maximum levels recorded in blown fuses. Circuit feeds power to accelerometer and makes nonvolatile record of maximum level to which output of accelerometer rises during measurement interval. In comparison with inertia-type single-preset-trip-point mechanical maximum-acceleration-recording devices, circuit weighs less, occupies less space, and records accelerations within narrower bands of uncertainty. In comparison with prior electronic data-acquisition systems designed for same purpose, circuit simpler, less bulky, consumes less power, costs and analysis of data recorded in magnetic or electronic memory devices. Circuit used, for example, to record accelerations to which commodities subjected during transportation on trucks.

  20. Deterministic Tectonic Origin Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necmioglu, O.; Meral Ozel, N.

    2014-12-01

    Accurate earthquake source parameters are essential for any tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation, including early warning systems. Complex tectonic setting makes the a priori accurate assumptions of earthquake source parameters difficult and characterization of the faulting type is a challenge. Information on tsunamigenic sources is of crucial importance in the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas, especially considering the short arrival times and lack of offshore sea-level measurements. In addition, the scientific community have had to abandon the paradigm of a ''maximum earthquake'' predictable from simple tectonic parameters (Ruff and Kanamori, 1980) in the wake of the 2004 Sumatra event (Okal, 2010) and one of the lessons learnt from the 2011 Tohoku event was that tsunami hazard maps may need to be prepared for infrequent gigantic earthquakes as well as more frequent smaller-sized earthquakes (Satake, 2011). We have initiated an extensive modeling study to perform a deterministic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas. Characteristic earthquake source parameters (strike, dip, rake, depth, Mwmax) at each 0.5° x 0.5° size bin for 0-40 km depth (total of 310 bins) and for 40-100 km depth (total of 92 bins) in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea region (30°N-48°N and 22°E-44°E) have been assigned from the harmonization of the available databases and previous studies. These parameters have been used as input parameters for the deterministic tsunami hazard modeling. Nested Tsunami simulations of 6h duration with a coarse (2 arc-min) and medium (1 arc-min) grid resolution have been simulated at EC-JRC premises for Black Sea and Eastern and Central Mediterranean (30°N-41.5°N and 8°E-37°E) for each source defined using shallow water finite-difference SWAN code (Mader, 2004) for the magnitude range of 6.5 - Mwmax defined for that bin with a Mw increment of 0.1. Results show that not only the