Sample records for maximum rainfall accumulation

  1. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Saralees Nadarajah; Dongseok Choi


    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.

  2. The relationship between the Guinea Highlands and the West African offshore rainfall maximum

    Hamilton, H. L.; Young, G. S.; Evans, J. L.; Fuentes, J. D.; Núñez Ocasio, K. M.


    Satellite rainfall estimates reveal a consistent rainfall maximum off the West African coast during the monsoon season. An analysis of 16 years of rainfall in the monsoon season is conducted to explore the drivers of such copious amounts of rainfall. Composites of daily rainfall and midlevel meridional winds centered on the days with maximum rainfall show that the day with the heaviest rainfall follows the strongest midlevel northerlies but coincides with peak low-level moisture convergence. Rain type composites show that convective rain dominates the study region. The dominant contribution to the offshore rainfall maximum is convective development driven by the enhancement of upslope winds near the Guinea Highlands. The enhancement in the upslope flow is closely related to African easterly waves propagating off the continent that generate low-level cyclonic vorticity and convergence. Numerical simulations reproduce the observed rainfall maximum and indicate that it weakens if the African topography is reduced.

  3. Rainfall Maximum Intensities for Urban Hydrological Design in Mexican Republic

    Campos–Aranda D.F.


    Full Text Available Firstly, through the urban hydrosystem concept and through urbanization, the difficulties and approach of the urban flood estimation are established, based in the Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves (IDF. Next, in 10 recording gages located in very different geographic zones, a procedure is contrasted for IDF estimation curves, which utilized the Chen formula and the available information in the Mexican Republic for isohyet intensities and annual daily maximum rainfall. Late, having verified their capacity and approximation to reproduce the IDF curves, the utilized procedure was applied in 45 important locations of the country, showing the results. Lastly, the conclusions are formulated, which point out the approximation and simplicity of the proposal procedure.

  4. [Runoff and sediment yielding processes on red soil engineering accumulation containing gravels by a simulated rainfall experiment].

    Shi, Qian-hua; Wang, Wen-long; Guo, Ming-ming; Bai, Yun; Deng, Li-qiang; Li, Jian-ming; Li, Yao-lin


    Engineering accumulation formed in production and construction projects is characterized by unique structure and complex material composition. Characteristics of soil erosion on the engineering accumulation significantly differ from those on farmland. An artificially simulated rainfall experiment was carried out to investigate the effects of rainfall intensity on the processes of runoff and sediment yielding on the engineering accumulation of different gravel contents (0%, 10%, 20% and 30%) in red soil regions. Results showed that the initial time of runoff generation decreased with increases in rainfall intensity and gravel content, the decreased amplitudes being about 48.5%-77.9% and 4.2%-34.2%, respectively. The initial time was found to be a power function of rainfall intensity. Both runoff velocity and runoff rate manifested a trend of first rising and then in a steady state with runoff duration. Rainfall intensity was found to be the main factor influencing runoff velocity and runoff rate, whereas the influence of gravel content was not significant. About 10% of gravel content was determined to be a critical value in the influence of gravel content on runoff volume. For the underlying surface of 10% gravel content, the runoff volume was least at rainfall intensity of 1.0 mm · min(-1) and maximum at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). The runoff volume in- creased 10%-60% with increase in rainfall intensity. Sediment concentration showed a sharp decline in first 6 min and then in a stable state in rest of time. Influence of rainfall intensity on sediment concentration decreased as gravel content increased. Gravels could reduce sediment yield significantly at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). Sediment yield was found to be a linear function of rainfall intensity and gravel content.

  5. Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments

    Amina Shahzadi; Ahmad Saeed Akhter; Betul Saf


    The estimation of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall has immense importance to make decisions about hydraulic structures like spillways, dikes and dams etc The main objective of this study is to get the best fit distributions for annual maximum rainfall data on regional basis in order to estimate the extreme rainfall events (quantiles) for various return periods. This study is carried out using index flood method using L-moments by Hosking and wallis (1997). The study is based on 23 ...

  6. Probability analysis for consecutive-day maximum rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City (south India, Asia)

    Sabarish, R. Mani; Narasimhan, R.; Chandhru, A. R.; Suribabu, C. R.; Sudharsan, J.; Nithiyanantham, S.


    In the design of irrigation and other hydraulic structures, evaluating the magnitude of extreme rainfall for a specific probability of occurrence is of much importance. The capacity of such structures is usually designed to cater to the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during its lifetime. In this study, an extreme value analysis of rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City in Tamil Nadu was carried out using 100 years of rainfall data. Statistical methods were used in the analysis. The best-fit probability distribution was evaluated for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days of continuous maximum rainfall. The goodness of fit was evaluated using Chi-square test. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that log-Pearson type III method is the overall best-fit probability distribution for 1-day maximum rainfall and consecutive 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series of Tiruchirapalli. To be reliable, the forecasted maximum rainfalls for the selected return periods are evaluated in comparison with the results of the plotting position.

  7. Estimate of annual daily maximum rainfall and intense rain equation for the Formiga municipality, MG, Brazil

    Giovana Mara Rodrigues Borges


    Full Text Available Knowledge of the probabilistic behavior of rainfall is extremely important to the design of drainage systems, dam spillways, and other hydraulic projects. This study therefore examined statistical models to predict annual daily maximum rainfall as well as models of heavy rain for the city of Formiga - MG. To do this, annual maximum daily rainfall data were ranked in decreasing order that best describes the statistical distribution by exceedance probability. Daily rainfall disaggregation methodology was used for the intense rain model studies and adjusted with Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF and Exponential models. The study found that the Gumbel model better adhered to the data regarding observed frequency as indicated by the Chi-squared test, and that the exponential model best conforms to the observed data to predict intense rains.

  8. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.


    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  9. Spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall over China with hourly through 24-hour accumulation periods based on national-level hourly rain gauge data

    Zheng, Yongguang; Xue, Ming; Li, Bo; Chen, Jiong; Tao, Zuyu


    Hourly rainfall measurements of 1919 national-level meteorological stations from 1981 through 2012 are used to document, for the first time, the climatology of extreme rainfall in hourly through 24-h accumulation periods in China. Rainfall amounts for 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-h periods at each station are constructed through running accumulation from hourly rainfall data that have been screened by proper quality control procedures. For each station and for each accumulation period, the historical maximum is found, and the corresponding 50-year return values are estimated using generalized extreme value theory. Based on the percentiles of the two types of extreme rainfall values among all the stations, standard thresholds separating Grade I, Grade II and Grade III extreme rainfall are established, which roughly correspond to the 70th and 90th percentiles for each of the accumulation periods. The spatial characteristics of the two types of extreme rainfall are then examined for different accumulation periods. The spatial distributions of extreme rainfall in hourly through 6-h periods are more similar than those of 12- and 24-h periods. Grade III rainfall is mostly found over South China, the western Sichuan Basin, along the southern and eastern coastlines, and in the large river basins and plains. There are similar numbers of stations with Grade III extreme hourly rainfall north and south of 30°N, but the percentage increases to about 70% south of 30°N as the accumulation period increases to 24 hours, reflecting richer moisture and more prolonged rain events in southern China. Potential applications of the extreme rainfall climatology and classification standards are suggested at the end.

  10. Estimating the exceedance probability of extreme rainfalls up to the probable maximum precipitation

    Nathan, Rory; Jordan, Phillip; Scorah, Matthew; Lang, Simon; Kuczera, George; Schaefer, Melvin; Weinmann, Erwin


    If risk-based criteria are used in the design of high hazard structures (such as dam spillways and nuclear power stations), then it is necessary to estimate the annual exceedance probability (AEP) of extreme rainfalls up to and including the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). This paper describes the development and application of two largely independent methods to estimate the frequencies of such extreme rainfalls. One method is based on stochastic storm transposition (SST), which combines the "arrival" and "transposition" probabilities of an extreme storm using the total probability theorem. The second method, based on "stochastic storm regression" (SSR), combines frequency curves of point rainfalls with regression estimates of local and transposed areal rainfalls; rainfall maxima are generated by stochastically sampling the independent variates, where the required exceedance probabilities are obtained using the total probability theorem. The methods are applied to two large catchments (with areas of 3550 km2 and 15,280 km2) located in inland southern Australia. Both methods were found to provide similar estimates of the frequency of extreme areal rainfalls for the two study catchments. The best estimates of the AEP of the PMP for the smaller and larger of the catchments were found to be 10-7 and 10-6, respectively, but the uncertainty of these estimates spans one to two orders of magnitude. Additionally, the SST method was applied to a range of locations within a meteorologically homogenous region to investigate the nature of the relationship between the AEP of PMP and catchment area.

  11. Modelling and Simulation of Seasonal Rainfall Using the Principle of Maximum Entropy

    Jonathan Borwein


    Full Text Available We use the principle of maximum entropy to propose a parsimonious model for the generation of simulated rainfall during the wettest three-month season at a typical location on the east coast of Australia. The model uses a checkerboard copula of maximum entropy to model the joint probability distribution for total seasonal rainfall and a set of two-parameter gamma distributions to model each of the marginal monthly rainfall totals. The model allows us to match the grade correlation coefficients for the checkerboard copula to the observed Spearman rank correlation coefficients for the monthly rainfalls and, hence, provides a model that correctly describes the mean and variance for each of the monthly totals and also for the overall seasonal total. Thus, we avoid the need for a posteriori adjustment of simulated monthly totals in order to correctly simulate the observed seasonal statistics. Detailed results are presented for the modelling and simulation of seasonal rainfall in the town of Kempsey on the mid-north coast of New South Wales. Empirical evidence from extensive simulations is used to validate this application of the model. A similar analysis for Sydney is also described.

  12. Gross rainfall amount and maximum rainfall intensity in 60-minute influence on interception loss of shrubs: a 10-year observation in the Tengger Desert

    Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Xin-Rong; Huang, Lei; Tan, Hui-Juan


    In water-limited regions, rainfall interception is influenced by rainfall properties and crown characteristics. Rainfall properties, aside from gross rainfall amount and duration (GR and RD), maximum rainfall intensity and rainless gap (RG), within rain events may heavily affect throughfall and interception by plants. From 2004 to 2014 (except for 2007), individual shrubs of Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia ordosica were selected to measure throughfall during 210 rain events. Various rainfall properties were auto-measured and crown characteristics, i.e., height, branch and leaf area index, crown area and volume of two shrubs were also measured. The relative interceptions of C. korshinskii and A. ordosica were 29.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Rainfall properties have more contributions than crown characteristics to throughfall and interception of shrubs. Throughfall and interception of shrubs can be explained by GR, RI60 (maximum rainfall intensities during 60 min), RD and RG in deceasing importance. However, relative throughfall and interception of two shrubs have different responses to rainfall properties and crown characteristics, those of C. korshinskii were closely related to rainfall properties, while those of A. ordosica were more dependent on crown characteristics. We highlight long-term monitoring is very necessary to determine the relationships between throughfall and interception with crown characteristics.

  13. Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz


    In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

  14. Regional maximum rainfall analysis using L-moments at the Titicaca Lake drainage, Peru

    Fernández-Palomino, Carlos Antonio; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo Sven


    The present study investigates the application of the index flood L-moments-based regional frequency analysis procedure (RFA-LM) to the annual maximum 24-h rainfall (AM) of 33 rainfall gauge stations (RGs) to estimate rainfall quantiles at the Titicaca Lake drainage (TL). The study region was chosen because it is characterised by common floods that affect agricultural production and infrastructure. First, detailed quality analyses and verification of the RFA-LM assumptions were conducted. For this purpose, different tests for outlier verification, homogeneity, stationarity, and serial independence were employed. Then, the application of RFA-LM procedure allowed us to consider the TL as a single, hydrologically homogeneous region, in terms of its maximum rainfall frequency. That is, this region can be modelled by a generalised normal (GNO) distribution, chosen according to the Z test for goodness-of-fit, L-moments (LM) ratio diagram, and an additional evaluation of the precision of the regional growth curve. Due to the low density of RG in the TL, it was important to produce maps of the AM design quantiles estimated using RFA-LM. Therefore, the ordinary Kriging interpolation (OK) technique was used. These maps will be a useful tool for determining the different AM quantiles at any point of interest for hydrologists in the region.

  15. Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments

    Amina Shahzadi


    Full Text Available The estimation of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall has immense importance to make decisions about hydraulic structures like spillways, dikes and dams etc The main objective of this study is to get the best fit distributions for annual maximum rainfall data on regional basis in order to estimate the extreme rainfall events (quantiles for various return periods. This study is carried out using index flood method using L-moments by Hosking and wallis (1997. The study is based on 23 sites of rainfall which are divided into three homogeneous regions. The collective results of L-moment ratio diagram, Z-statistic and AWD values show the GLO, GEV and GNO to be best fit for all three regions and in addition PE3 for region 3. On the basis of relative RMSE, for region 1 and region 2, GLO, GEV and GNO are producing approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While GNO is producing less relative RMSE for large return periods of 500 and 1000. So for large return periods GNO could be best distribution. For region 3 GLO, GEV, GNO and PE3 are having approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While for large return periods of 500 and 1000 PE3 could be best on basis of less relative RMSE.

  16. A method for estimating maximum static rainfall retention in pebble mulches used for soil moisture conservation

    Peng, Hongtao; Lei, Tingwu; Jiang, Zhiyun; Horton, Robert


    Mulching of agricultural fields and gardens with pebbles has long been practiced to conserve soil moisture in some semi-arid regions with low precipitation. Rainfall interception by the pebble mulch itself is an important part of the computation of the water balance for the pebble mulched fields and gardens. The mean equivalent diameter (MED) was used to characterize the pebble size. The maximum static rainfall retention in pebble mulch is based on the water penetrating into the pores of pebbles, the water adhering to the outside surfaces of pebbles and the water held between pebbles of the mulch. Equations describing the water penetrating into the pores of pebbles and the water adhering to the outside surface of pebbles are constructed based on the physical properties of water and the pebble characteristics. The model for the water between pebbles of the mulch is based on the basic equation to calculate the water bridge volume and the basic coordination number model. A method to calculate the maximum static rainfall retention in the pebble mulch is presented. Laboratory rain simulation experiments were performed to test the model with measured data. Paired sample t-tests showed no significant differences between the values calculated with the method and the measured data. The model is ready for testing on field mulches.

  17. Regional analysis of annual maximum rainfall using TL-moments method

    Shabri, Ani Bin; Daud, Zalina Mohd; Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd


    Information related to distributions of rainfall amounts are of great importance for designs of water-related structures. One of the concerns of hydrologists and engineers is the probability distribution for modeling of regional data. In this study, a novel approach to regional frequency analysis using L-moments is revisited. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the TL-moments method is employed. The results from both methods were then compared. The analysis was based on daily annual maximum rainfall data from 40 stations in Selangor Malaysia. TL-moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized logistic (GLO) distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. TL-moment ratio diagram and Z-test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the two approaches showed that the L-moments and TL-moments produced equivalent results. GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the most suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation was used for performance evaluation, and it showed that the method of TL-moments was more efficient for lower quantile estimation compared with the L-moments.

  18. Research on stability of the accumulated rock-soil body of reservoir bank under rainfall condition


    The shear strength parameters property of rock-soil aggregates in embankment slope of reservoir,that is,the relationship between cohesion and gravel content,between friction angle and gravel content,and the relationship between cohesion and water content,between friction angle and water content,is studied based on the direct shear test results,the shear strength change law of the rock-soil aggregates is given,and the unsaturated shear strength formulation of rock-soil aggregates that could consider suction and saturation degree influence is put forward in this paper,through which the sliding or failure physical mechanism of this type of slope under the condition of rainfall infiltration is studied. Also the 3D unsteady saturated-unsaturated seepage field and its FEM resolving mode are established based on the analysis of the slope rainfall infiltration process. Case study with this method indicates that the minimum safety factor of the accumulated rock-soil aggregates dose not arrive at the moment of rainfall cessation,but appears several hours after the rainfall cessation,this phenomenon is in accordance with the practical slope engineering’s failure process and could explain appropriately the slope failure caused by rainfall infiltration. Research results in this paper have an important reference value for the research on stability of the accumulated rock-soil aggregates in embankment slope of reservoir,and can enrich the stability analysis method and relevant theory of reservoir embankment slope.

  19. Water vapour accumulation mechanisms in the Western Mediterranean Basin and the development of European extreme rainfalls

    E. Sáez de Cámara


    Full Text Available This paper examines the role of a recently described warm season circulation at the middle troposphere of northern Africa and that of the recirculation-accumulation mode of the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB in the initiation of rainfall episodes in central and eastern Europe. Both of these atmospheric mechanisms can accumulate not only soil dust and pollutants for several days but also water vapour by evaporation both over the subtropical Atlantic and the western and central Mediterranean. Accumulation layers are vented off into the surrounding area after the irruption of perturbations. In particular, this work explores the exportation of water vapour under perturbed conditions associated with the passage of ‘Vb’ cyclones. The exceptional rainfall experienced over large areas of central Europe (Elbe/Danube floods during August 11-13, 2002 is exposed as a case study. The procedure to simulate the mechanisms involves a combination of the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System and HYbrid PArticle Concentration and Transport modelling systems. MODIS water vapour products, radio-soundings, wind profiler radars and surface-satellite precipitation data are used to verify the simulation outputs. Our results show that most of the precipitation occurring in the target area during the initiation and deepening of the episode was very likely originated in an air mass exported from the WMB. After our tracking experiment, that air mass, with an initial Atlantic origin, entered the WMB and circulated during 4 days (August 6-9 within the marine boundary layer and the coastal range of mountains of the WMB, accumulating vapour. Then, most of it was transported on August 10, after the irruption of the 'Vb' cyclone Ilse, through the Italian Peninsula and the Adriatic Sea, across the Western Balkans into the target area. The transported vapour together with evaporation en route initiated the rainfall episode.

  20. Application of weather radar CAPPI data to verify NWP rainfall accumulation data

    Bassan, José Marcio; Martins, João Eduardo Machado Perea; Sugahara, Shigetoshi; da Silveira, Reinaldo Bomfim


    This study presents a method for using the CAPPI data from a weather radar to verify forecasts of 24 h accumulated precipitation from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, during 2010-2012. The radar used in this study consisted of a 2° beam width, Doppler and single polarization, S-band radar, located at the Meteorological Research Institute (IPMET) of Sao Paulo State University, Bauru, Sao Paulo, Brazil. A tuned version of the Eta model was used in the verification, though any model could be used with a few minor adaptations. The model, used actively at IPMET, had a horizontal grid spacing of 10 km, and was defined with the lateral boundary conditions from the Global Circulation Model of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research of the Brazilian Institute for Space Research. A linear correction was applied to the radar data, using selected rain gauges from the state of Sao Paulo's meteorological observation network, to create a reference series for both radar and NWP quantitative precipitation estimates. The reference data were used to verify the rainfall rates forecasted with the NWP, in terms of both their spatial distribution and the rainfall quantity at ground level. The results agreed well with the specific ranges of rainfall values, but there were situations where the radar data presented limitations for the verification. Ways in which to improve the methodology presented here are discussed. The current study provides an opportunity to use a high-resolution data set to verify predicted rainfall across a large spatial coverage, particularly in places which lack rain observational data.

  1. 5 CFR 630.302 - Maximum annual leave accumulation-forty-five day limitation.


    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Maximum annual leave accumulation-forty-five day limitation. 630.302 Section 630.302 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS ABSENCE AND LEAVE Annual Leave § 630.302 Maximum annual leave...

  2. Transfer function modeling of the monthly accumulated rainfall series over the Iberian Peninsula

    Mateos, Vidal L.; Garcia, Jose A.; Serrano, Antonio; De la Cruz Gallego, Maria [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz (Spain)


    In order to improve the results given by Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA) modeling for the monthly accumulated rainfall series taken at 19 observatories of the Iberian Peninsula, a Discrete Linear Transfer Function Noise (DLTFN) model was applied taking the local pressure series (LP), North Atlantic sea level pressure series (SLP) and North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as input variables, and the rainfall series as the output series. In all cases, the performance of the DLTFN models, measured by the explained variance of the rainfall series, is better than the performance given by the ARMA modeling. The best performance is given by the models that take the local pressure as the input variable, followed by the sea level pressure models and the sea surface temperature models. Geographically speaking, the models fitted to those observatories located in the west of the Iberian Peninsula work better than those on the north and east of the Peninsula. Also, it was found that there is a region located between 0 N and 20 N, which shows the highest cross-correlation between SST and the peninsula rainfalls. This region moves to the west and northwest off the Peninsula when the SLP series are used. [Spanish] Con el objeto de mejorar los resultados porporcionados por los modelos Autorregresivo Media Movil (ARMA) ajustados a las precipitaciones mensuales acumuladas registradas en 19 observatorios de la Peninsula Iberica se han usado modelos de funcion de transferencia (DLTFN) en los que se han empleado como variable independiente la presion local (LP), la presion a nivel del mar (SLP) o la temperatura de agua del mar (SST) en el Atlantico Norte. En todos los casos analizados, los resultados obtenidos con los modelos DLTFN, medidos mediante la varianza explicada por el modelo, han sido mejores que los resultados proporcionados por los modelos ARMA. Los mejores resultados han sido dados por aquellos modelos que usan la presion local como variable de entrada, seguidos


    G. M. J. HASAN


    Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

  4. Sensitivity of accumulated rainfall and errors estimates to the configuration of microwave imagers constellation for the tropical regions

    Chambon, P.; Jobard, I.; Capderou, M.; Roca, R.


    Over the intertropical belt, satellites are powerful tools to measure precipitation, as surface networks of rain gauges or radars are scarce over this part of the globe. Rainfall is central to the water and energy cycle of the Tropics and the upcoming GPM program offers a unique perspective on this important challenge. We explore here, via simulations, how sensitive are rainfall accumulation estimates to the design of the details of the observing system. The Megha-Tropiques TAPEER-BRAIN Level-4 product is considered for this study. TAPEER-BRAIN is a technique that builds rainfall accumulation estimations and associated error at the one-degree/one-day scale over the whole Tropical belt. TAPEER-BRAIN relies on the use of infrared imagers onboard a fleet of geostationary satellites and Level-2 instantaneous rainfall estimates derived from passive microwave radiometers onboard a constellation of low Earth orbiting satellites. An error model involving rainfall auto-correlation calculations is then used to characterize sampling uncertainties on accumulated precipitation estimations. This framework is used to simulate the various configuration of the observing system. To this end, Level-2 instantaneous rain products are simulated through the use of an orbit simulator and a sampling method. Rainfall estimations are extracted from the GSMaP rainfall product under the swath of simulated observing systems. One-degree/one-day rain and error estimations are then computed with infrared data and the simulated Level-2 instantaneous rain products for different scenarios of constellation. Sensitivities to the sampling of sun-synchronous satellites as well as observing systems on low-inclination orbits are performed. One of the main findings of this study is that satellites on "tropical" orbits have a high contribution to the improvements of TAPEER-BRAIN quantitative precipitation estimations (rain and error estimations). This study also shows that satellites with local Equator

  5. Importance of maximum snow accumulation for summer low flows in humid catchments

    Jenicek, M.; Seibert, J.; Zappa, M.; Staudinger, M.; Jonas, T.


    The expected increase of air temperature will increase the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation during winter and, thus decrease the amount of snow, especially in mid-elevation mountain ranges across Europe. The decrease of snow will affect groundwater recharge during spring and might cause low streamflow values in the subsequent summer period. To evaluate these potential climate change impacts, we investigated the effects of inter-annual variations in snow accumulation on summer low flow and addressed the following research questions: (1) how important is snow for summer low flows and how long is the "memory effect" in catchments with different elevations? (2) How sensitive are summer low flows to any change of winter snowpack? To find suitable predictors of summer low flow we used long time series from 14 alpine and pre-alpine catchments in Switzerland and computed different variables quantifying winter and spring snow conditions. We assessed the sensitivity of individual catchments to the change of maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) using the non-parametric Theil-Sen approach as well as an elasticity index. In general, the results indicated that maximum winter snow accumulation influenced summer low flow, but could only partly explain the observed inter-annual variations. One other important factor was the precipitation between maximum snow accumulation and summer low flow. When only the years with below average precipitation amounts during this period were considered, the importance of snow accumulation as a predictor of low flows increased. The slope of the regression between SWEmax and summer low flow and the elasticity index both increased with increasing mean catchment elevation. This indicated a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow accumulation in alpine catchments compared to lower elevation catchments.

  6. L-Moments Regional Frequency Analysis Methodology Application in maximum rainfall values over the Bogota River's basin

    Romero, Claudia; Mesa, Duvan


    L-Moments Regional Frequency Analysis Methodology Application in maximum rainfall values over the Bogota River's basin 1°Claudia Patricia Romero Hernández; 2°Duvan Javier Mesa Fernández Universidad Santo Tomas; Colombia The application area of this methodology is the Bogota River's basin, which is located in Cundinamarca; a Colombian department with a total surface area of 589.143 hectares. This basin includes 19 sub-basins, and it is the most densely urbanized of the country. Including its metropolitan area, this region boasts a population of 9.000.000 inhabitants; which composes approximately 23% of Colombia's population and possesses around 19% of the country's industries. This basin has shown a notorious increase of complicated floods frequency in the last few years due to climatic variations. These climatic periods correspond to a weather pattern called Niña Phenomenon (2010-2011), which affected 57.000 citizens in this department and 4,900 people directly in Bogota city, with an estimated economic damage of 277'121,052 USD. The Regional Frequency Analysis methodology is a statistics procedure that consists in adding information from multiple samples in a single large sample, assuming previously that all of these come from the same probability model, except for a difference between them due to a scale factor. These samples are defined by a "regionalization" procedure known as the "Avenue Index" or "Flood Index". This procedure groups several kinds of information that comes from a common probability model, such as temperature, rainfall, and water flow. This model must be similar for all of the weather stations located in a homogeneous region. Maps for each of 4 return periods (5, 10, 50 and 100 years) were developed based on 120 weather stations located on this basin. The information used in this process comes from median monthly rainfall data, based on historical series between 30 and 40 years average. An increase in the annual median rainfall was

  7. Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

    Klein, Iris M.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Frigon, Anne; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick


    Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

  8. Accumulation of particulate matter and trace elements on vegetation as affected by pollution level, rainfall and the passage of time.

    Przybysz, A; Sæbø, A; Hanslin, H M; Gawroński, S W


    Particulate matter is harmful to human health. To reduce its concentration in air, plants could be used as biological filters, accumulating particulate matter on their foliage. In a study carried out at three sites with differing pollution levels and exposure to precipitation, the capacity of evergreen species (Taxus baccata L., Hedera helix L. and Pinus sylvestris L.) to accumulate particulate matter and trace elements from ambient air in urban areas was investigated. The effects of rainfall and the passage of time on particulate matter deposition on foliage were also determined. The results showed that foliage accumulated an increasing quantity of particulate matter in successive months, but the actual amount of particulate matter and trace elements accumulated differed considerably between sites and plant species. The greatest accumulation of air pollutants occurred on the foliage of plants protected from the rain at a site exposed to traffic related pollution and the smallest accumulation at a rural site. Among the species analysed, the deposited mass of particulate matter and trace elements was the greatest on P. sylvestris. In all species, precipitation removed a considerable proportion of particles accumulated on foliage. Most of the removed particulate matter was large size fraction, but little belong to the smallest size fraction. These results showed that both, the dynamics of deposition and leaf washing by rain during the season need to be considered when evaluating the total effect of vegetation in pollutant remediation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. 最大熵算法在气象雨量预测中的应用分析%Application of Maximum Entropy Algorithm Meteorological Rainfall Prediction



    将最大熵原理的计算方法应用到气象雨量预测中,通过有效的仿真实验能够证明最大熵方法在气象雨量预测中的可行性。%The calculation of the maximum entropy principle is applied to the weather forecast rainfall through effective simulation experiment to prove the feasibility of the maximum entropy method of meteorological rainfall prediction.

  10. A systematic approach to selecting the best probability models for annual maximum rainfalls - A case study using data in Ontario (Canada)

    Nguyen, Truong-Huy; El Outayek, Sarah; Lim, Sun Hee; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van


    Many probability distributions have been developed to model the annual maximum rainfall series (AMS). However, there is no general agreement as to which distribution should be used due to the lack of a suitable evaluation method. This paper presents hence a general procedure for assessing systematically the performance of ten commonly used probability distributions in rainfall frequency analyses based on their descriptive as well as predictive abilities. This assessment procedure relies on an extensive set of graphical and numerical performance criteria to identify the most suitable models that could provide the most accurate and most robust extreme rainfall estimates. The proposed systematic assessment approach has been shown to be more efficient and more robust than the traditional model selection method based on only limited goodness-of-fit criteria. To test the feasibility of the proposed procedure, an illustrative application was carried out using 5-min, 1-h, and 24-h annual maximum rainfall data from a network of 21 raingages located in the Ontario region in Canada. Results have indicated that the GEV, GNO, and PE3 models were the best models for describing the distribution of daily and sub-daily annual maximum rainfalls in this region. The GEV distribution, however, was preferred to the GNO and PE3 because it was based on a more solid theoretical basis for representing the distribution of extreme random variables.

  11. On the consideration of scaling properties of extreme rainfall in Madrid (Spain) for developing a generalized intensity-duration-frequency equation and assessing probable maximum precipitation estimates

    Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Navarro, Xavier; Russo, Beniamino; Lastra, Antonio; González, Paula; Redaño, Angel


    The fractal behavior of extreme rainfall intensities registered between 1940 and 2012 by the Retiro Observatory of Madrid (Spain) has been examined, and a simple scaling regime ranging from 25 min to 3 days of duration has been identified. Thus, an intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) master equation of the location has been constructed in terms of the simple scaling formulation. The scaling behavior of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for durations between 5 min and 24 h has also been verified. For the statistical estimation of the PMP, an envelope curve of the frequency factor (k m ) based on a total of 10,194 station-years of annual maximum rainfall from 258 stations in Spain has been developed. This curve could be useful to estimate suitable values of PMP at any point of the Iberian Peninsula from basic statistical parameters (mean and standard deviation) of its rainfall series.

  12. Investigating the error budget of tropical rainfall accumulations derived from combined passive microwave and infrared satellite measurements

    Roca, R.; Chambon, P.; jobard, I.; Viltard, N.


    Measuring rainfall requires a high density of observations, which, over the whole tropical elt, can only be provided from space. For several decades, the availability of satellite observations has greatly increased; thanks to newly implemented missions like the Megha-Tropiques mission and the forthcoming GPM constellation, measurements from space become available from a set of observing systems. In this work, we focus on rainfall error estimations at the 1 °/1-day accumulated scale, key scale of meteorological and hydrological studies. A novel methodology for quantitative precipitation estimation is introduced; its name is TAPEER (Tropical Amount of Precipitation with an Estimate of ERrors) and it aims to provide 1 °/1-day rain accumulations and associated errors over the whole Tropical belt. This approach is based on a combination of infrared imagery from a fleet of geostationary satellites and passive microwave derived rain rates from a constellation of low earth orbiting satellites. A three-stage disaggregation of error into sampling, algorithmic and calibration errors is performed; the magnitudes of the three terms are then estimated separately. A dedicated error model is used to evaluate sampling errors and a forward error propagation approach is used for an estimation of algorithmic and calibration errors. One of the main findings in this study is the large contribution of the sampling errors and the algorithmic errors of BRAIN on medium rain rates (2 mm h-1 to 10 mm h-1) in the total error budget.

  13. Accumulation of contaminants from urban rainfall runoff in blue crabs: A pilot study

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The objective of this pilot study was to determine the feasibility of using caged blue crabs Callinectes sapidus to monitor accumulation of contaminants in urban...

  14. Modeling sugarcane ripening as a function of accumulated rainfall in Southern Brazil

    Cardozo, Nilceu P.; Sentelhas, Paulo C.; Panosso, Alan R.; Palhares, Antonio L.; Ide, Bernardo Y.


    The effect of weather variables on sugarcane ripening is a process still not completely understood, despite its huge impact on the quality of raw material for the sugar energy industry. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of weather variables on sugarcane ripening in southern Brazil, propose empirical models for estimating total recoverable sugar (TRS) content, and evaluate the performance of these models with experimental and commercial independent data from different regions. A field experiment was carried out in Piracicaba, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering eight sugarcane cultivars planted monthly, from March to October 2002. In 2003, at the harvest, 12 months later, samples were collected to evaluate TRS (kg t-1). TRS and weather variables (air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and rainfall) were analyzed using descriptive and multivariate statistical analysis to understand their interactions. From these correlations, variables were selected to generate empirical models for estimating TRS, according to the cultivar groups and their ripening characteristics (early, mid, and late). These models were evaluated by residual analysis and regression analysis with independent experimental data from two other locations in the same years and with independent commercial data from six different locations from 2005 to 2010. The best performances were found with exponential models which considered cumulative rainfall during the 120 days before harvest as an independent variable ( R 2 adj ranging from 0.92 to 0.95). Independent evaluations revealed that our models were capable of estimating TRS with reasonable to high precision ( R 2 adj ranging from 0.66 to 0.99) and accuracy ( D index ranging from 0.90 to 0.99), and with low mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE ≤ 5 %), even in regions with different climatic conditions.

  15. The impact of observations on Mesoscale Model forecasts of three-hourly rainfall accumulations

    Anderson, S. R.; Graham, R. J.; Bader, M. J.


    The aim of data-impact studies at the UK Met. Office is to investigate how observations affect the accuracy of model forecasts. Results from such experiments provide useful evidence on which to base the design of observational networks. This project, using a case study approach, investigated the relative benefit of different observation types within The Met. Office's Mesoscale Model domain on forecasts of three-hourly precipitation accumulation over the UK up to 12 hours ahead. The method used assesses the impact of assimilating single observation types, or a limited combination of types, where impact is measured against a control forecast obtained after a dummy assimilation using no observations. In experiments for 13 case studies, the observation types that most frequently provided a beneficial impact when presented alone to the assimilation were sonde data, surface data and data from the Moisture Observation Processing System (MOPS).

  16. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    Wied Pedersen, Jonas; Lund, Nadia Schou Vorndran; Borup, Morten;


    period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior......High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper...... presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined...

  17. Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum snow accumulation using a regional climate model: application to Quebec, Canada, under changing climate conditions

    Klein, I. M.; Rousseau, A. N.; Gagnon, P.; Frigon, A.


    Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood. A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the resulting spring probable maximum flood is neither overestimated, which would mean financial losses, nor underestimated, which could affect public safety. In addition, the impact of climate change needs to be considered since it is known that solid precipitation in some Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood intensify over the next century. In this paper, outputs from different simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model are used to estimate PMSAs for southern Quebec, Canada (44.1°N - 49.1°N; 68.2°W - 75.5°W). Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationary tests indicate that climate change will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water and the ensuing maximization ratio r. The maximization ratio r is used to maximize "efficient" snowfall events; and represents the ratio of the 100-year precipitable water of a given month divided by the snowstorm precipitable water. A computational method was developed to maximize precipitable water using a non-stationary frequency analysis. The method was carefully adapted to the spatial and temporal constraints embedded in the resolution of the available simulation data. For example, for a given grid cell and time step, snow and rain may occur simultaneously. In this case, the focus is restricted to snow and snow-storm-conditions only, thus rainfall and humidity that could lead to rainfall are neglected. Also, the temporal resolution cannot necessarily capture the full duration of actual snow storms. The threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized and the duration resulting from considered time steps are adjusted in order to obtain a high percentage of maximization ratios below

  18. Statistical analysis of yearly series of maximum daily rainfall in Spain. Analisis estadistico de las series anuales de maximas lluvias diarias en Espaa

    Ferrer Polo, J.; Ardiles Lopez, K. L. (CEDEX, Ministerio de Obras Publicas, Transportes y Medio ambiente, Madrid (Spain))


    Work on the statistical modelling of maximum daily rainfalls is presented, with a view to estimating the quantiles for different return periods. An index flood approach has been adopted in which the local quantiles are a result of rescaling a regional law using the mean of each series of values, that is utilized as a local scale factor. The annual maximum series have been taken from 1.545 meteorological stations over a 30 year period, and these have been classified into 26 regions defined according to meteorological criteria, the homogeneity of wich has been checked by means of a statistical analysis of the coefficients of variation of the samples,using the. An estimation has been made of the parameters for the following four distribution models: Two Component Extreme Value (TCEV); General Extreme Value (GEV); Log-Pearson III (LP3); and SQRT-Exponential Type Distribution of Maximum. The analysis of the quantiles obtained reveals slight differences in the results thus detracting from the importance of the model selection. The last of the above-mentioned distribution has been finally chosen, on the basis of the following: it is defined with fewer parameters it is the only that was proposed specifically for the analysis of daily rainfall maximums; it yields more conservative results than the traditional Gumbel distribution for the high return periods; and it is capable of providing a good description of the main sampling statistics concerning the right-hand tail of the distribution, a fact that has been checked with Montecarlo's simulation techniques. The choice of a distribution model with only two parameters has led to the selection of the regional coefficient of variation as the only determining parameter for the regional quantiles. This has permitted the elimination of the quantiles discontinuity of the classical regional approach, thus smoothing the values of that coefficient by means of an isoline plan on a national scale.

  19. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    Jonas W. Pedersen


    Full Text Available High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior standard deviations and lengths of the auto-calibration period on the resulting flow forecast performance are evaluated. We were able to demonstrate that, if properly tuned, the method leads to a significant increase in forecasting performance compared to a model without continuous auto-calibration. Delayed responses and erratic behaviour in the parameter variations are, however, observed and the choice of prior distributions and length of auto-calibration period is not straightforward.

  20. Research on the Fine-Scale Spatial Uniformity of Natural Rainfall and Rainfall from a Rainfall Simulator with a Rotary Platform (RSRP)

    Bo Liu; Xiaolei Wang; Lihua Shi; Xichuan Liu; Zhaojing Kang; Zhentao Chen


    ... and the rainfall uniformity was evaluated using the Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient (CU). Simultaneously, factors influencing the spatial uniformity of natural rainfall, including the average rainfall accumulation (RA...

  1. Role of spatial variability of rainfall intensity: improve- ment of Eagleson's classical model to explain the rela- tionship between the coefficient of variation of annual maximum discharge and catchment size

    Kuzuha, Yasuhisa; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tomosugi, Kunio; Kishii, Tokuo; Komatsu, Yosuke


    Eagleson's classical regional flood frequency model is investigated. Our intention was not to improve the model, but to reveal previously unidentified important and dominant hydrological processes in it. The change of the coefficient of variation (CV) of annual maximum discharge with catchment area can be viewed as representing the spatial variance of floods in a homogeneous region. Several researchers have reported that the CV decreases as the catchment area increases, at least for large areas. On the other hand, Eagleson's classical studies have been known as pioneer efforts that combine the concept of similarity analysis (scaling) with the derived flood frequency approach. As we have shown, the classical model can reproduce the empirical relationship between the mean annual maximum discharge and catchment area, but it cannot reproduce the empirical decreasing CV-catchment area curve. Therefore, we postulate that previously unidentified hydrological processes would be revealed if the classical model were improved to reproduce the decreasing of CV with catchment area. First, we attempted to improve the classical model by introducing a channel network, but this was ineffective. However, the classical model was improved by introducing a two-parameter gamma distribution for rainfall intensity. What is important is not the gamma distribution itself, but those characteristics of spatial variability of rainfall intensity whose CV decreases with increasing catchment area. Introducing the variability of rainfall intensity into the hydrological simulations explains how the CV of rainfall intensity decreases with increasing catchment area. It is difficult to reflect the rainfall-runoff processes in the model while neglecting the characteristics of rainfall intensity from the viewpoint of annual flood discharge variances.

  2. The Winter Rainfall of Malaysia

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Tsay, Jenq-Dar; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Matsumoto, Jun


    .... The major cause of the rainfall maximum of Peninsular Malaysia is cold surge vortices (CSVs) and heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events propagating from the Philippine area and Borneo. In contrast, the major cause of the rainfall maximum of Borneo is these rain-producing disturbances trapped in Borneo. Disturbances of the former group are formed by the cold sur...

  3. Rainfall Threshold of Triggering Landslide-an Example of Typhoon Soudelor in 2015

    Lin, Yong-Jun; Lin, Ji-Hua; Tan, Yih-Chi


    Typhoon Soudelor (2015) stroke southern New Taipei City, Taiwan. It brought huge damages to Xindian District and Wulai District, and those damages including 7 large landslides, blockages to access roads, and strands of hundreds of residents. The main reasons of landslide due to the high intensity rain brought by Typhoon Soudelor. The rain gauges near the sites of landslides showed the maximum hourly rainfall of 70 (mm) and the accumulative rainfall is 500-800 (mm). The largest area of the above-mentioned landslide is 9.7 ha. According to the study conducted in (Cheng et. al, 2014), the average 3hr-rainfall intensity and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall can used for indicators for the rainfall threshold of triggering landslide. Based on the historical landslide events, three rainfall threshold of triggering landslide can be gotten for probability of 30%, 60%, and 90% respectively. Using the rainfall data of Typhoon Soudelor, it is found that the rainfall recording in gauges located very near the line of probability of 90%. The average 3hr-rainfall intensity of 70 (mm/hr) and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall of 700 (mm) are used for probability of 90%. As for probability of 30%, the 3hr-rainfall intensity is 30 (mm/hr) and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall is 300 (mm). As for probability of 60%, the 3hr-rainfall intensity is 50 (mm/hr) and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall is 500 (mm). The curve of trigging landslide adopted in this study is ellipse, and may be modified by verifying more data.

  4. Research on the Fine-Scale Spatial Uniformity of Natural Rainfall and Rainfall from a Rainfall Simulator with a Rotary Platform (RSRP)

    Bo Liu; Xiaolei Wang; Lihua Shi; Xichuan Liu; Zhaojing Kang; Zhentao Chen


    Abstract: The accurate production of a rainfall environment similar to natural rainfall by a rainfall simulator (RS) is a crucial and challenging task in rainfall instrument testing or calibration. Although the spatial uniformity of rainfall accumulation is a key parameter of an RS, the spatial uniformity comparison between simulated rainfall and natural rainfall, and the spatial uniformity improvements for an RS are scant in the literature. In this study, a fine-scale natural rainfall experi...

  5. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite using MET software

    Soma Sen Roy; Subhendu Brata Saha; Hashmi Fatima; S K Roy Bhowmik; P K Kundu


    The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study evaluates the 3-hourly precipitation estimates by this technique as well as the rainfall estimates by the GPI technique using data of the Kalpana-1 satellite, over the Indian region for the south-west monsoon season of 2010 to understand their relative strengths and weaknesses in estimating short period rainfall. The gridded 3 hourly accumulated TRMM satellite (3B42 V6 product or TMPA product) and surface raingauge data for stations over the Indian region for the same period is used as the standard measure of rainfall estimates. The Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) utility of the METv3.0 software, has been used for the evaluation purpose. The results show that the new IMSRA technique is closer to the TMPA rainfall estimate, in terms of areal spread, geometric shape and location of rainfall areas, as compared to the GPI technique. The overlap of matching rainfall areas with respect to TMPA rainfall patches is also higher for the IMSRA estimates as compared to the GPI values. However, both satellite rainfall estimates are observed to be generally higher compared to the TMPA measurements. However, the values for the highest 10% of the rainfall rates in any rainfall patch, is generally higher for rainfall measured by the IMSRA technique, as compared to the estimates by the GPI technique. This may partly be due to the capping maximum limit of 3 mm/hr for rainfall measured by the GPI technique limits the total 3-hour accumulation to 9 mm even during heavy rainfall episodes. This is not so with IMSRA technique, which has no such limiting value. However, this general overestimation of the rainfall amount, measured by both techniques

  6. Diet-induced obesity accelerates blood lactate accumulation of rats in response to incremental exercise to maximum.

    Chen, Chiao-Nan Joyce; Liao, Yi-Hung; Lin, Shang-Ying; Yu, Jun-Xian; Li, Zhen-Jie; Lin, Yu-Chieh; Chang, Gwo-Jyh; Lin, Chung-Hao; Wong, Alice May-Kuen


    Blood lactate increases during incremental exercise at high-intensity workloads and limited exercise capacity is a characteristic of obese animals. This study examined whether blood lactate changes in response to incremental exercise is disrupted in obese animals. Muscular and hepatic proteins that are critical in lactate metabolism were also investigated. Rats were randomized to either standard chow (control) or high fat diet (HFD) groups. All animals underwent an incremental treadmill test after 14 weeks of diet intervention. Blood lactate levels were measured before and after the treadmill test. Activities of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation and glycolysis were examined in muscle tissues. Proteins in the liver and skeletal muscles that participate in the turnover of blood lactate were determined by Western blot. Running time in the incremental treadmill test decreased in the HFD group, and blood lactate accumulated faster in these animals than in the control group. Animals with HFD had a decreased level of hepatic monocarboxylate transporter 2, the protein responsible for blood lactate uptake in the liver. Skeletal muscles of animals with HFD showed greater glycolytic activity and decreased content of lactate dehydrogenase B, which converts lactate to pyruvate. Blood lactate accumulated faster during incremental exercise in obese animals and associated with their decreased exercise performance. Changes in the metabolic pattern of muscles and changes of liver and muscle proteins associated with lactate utilization likely contribute to the abnormal response of blood lactate to incremental exercise in obese animals. Copyright © 2017, American Journal of Physiology-Regulatory, Integrative and Comparative Physiology.

  7. Rainfall Characterization In An Arid Area

    Bazaraa, A. S.; Ahmed, Shamim


    The objective of this work is to characterize the rainfall in Doha which lies in an arid region. The rainfall data included daily rainfall depth since 1962 and the hyetographs of the individual storms since 1976. The rainfall is characterized by high variability and severe thunderstorms which are of limited geographical extent. Four probability distributions were used to fit the maximum rainfall in 24 hours and the annual rainfall depth. The extreme value distribution was found to have the be...

  8. Laboratory-Measured Rainfall Effects on LWIR Soil Reflectance

    Howington, S. E.; Ballard, J., Jr.; Wilhelms, S.


    The long-wave infrared reflectance of soils will often have distinct spectral characteristics that depend on the soil's physical and spectral properties. Rainfall has the effect of sorting soil particles at the ground surface, thus changing its long-wave infrared reflectance. This study examines how rainfall alters the measured directional-hemispherical thermal infrared (8-14 μm) spectral reflectance by comparing disturbed soil with undisturbed soil and pre-rain with post-rain conditions. The study uses a soil with a specified sand/silt ratio and a calibrated, laboratory rainfall simulator. For an accumulated rainfall of 8 cm, the mean disturbed soil thermal infrared spectral reflectance within 8.1 - 9.2 μm waveband increases from an initial reflectance of 13 percent to a maximum reflectance of 31 percent. Sixty percent of this reflectance change occurred with only 1 cm accumulated rainfall. This study shows that, for this described disturbed sand/silt soil mixture, small accumulated rainfall amounts significantly alter the directional-hemispherical thermal infrared spectral reflectance.

  9. Determination of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides by a probabilistic and empirical method

    J. Huang


    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced landslides not only cause property loss, but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in mountainous areas in China. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent with rainfall threshold values used in an early warning system at a regional scale for the occurrence of landslides. However, the limited availability of data always causes difficulties. In this paper we present a method to calculate rainfall threshold values with limited data sets for the two rainfall parameters: maximum hourly rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The method has been applied to the Huangshan region, in Anhui Province, China. Four early warning levels (Zero, Outlook, Attention, and Warning have been adopted and the corresponding rainfall threshold values have been defined by probability lines. A validation procedure showed that this method can significantly enhance the effectiveness of a warning system, and finally reduce the risk from shallow landslides in mountainous regions.

  10. The asymmetry of rainfall process

    YU RuCong; YUAN WeiHua; LI Jian


    Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006,the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event.The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric,which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event.The effects of rainfall intensity,duration and peak time,as well as topography,are also considered.It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain,such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains,and the Yungui Plateau.The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall,but the regional differences are weaker.The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry.The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out,which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak.These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models.Moreover,the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards,such as collapses,landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.

  11. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth


    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  12. Qualitative assessment of PMIP3 rainfall simulations across the eastern African monsoon domains during the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum

    Chevalier, Manuel; Brewer, Simon; Chase, Brian M.


    In this paper we compare a compilation of multiproxy records spanning the eastern African margin with general circulation model simulations of seasonal precipitation fields for the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) carried out as part of the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). Results show good agreement during the mid-Holocene (the '6K experiment'), with palaeodata and model outputs correlating well and indicating that changes in insolation drove a stronger northern African monsoon (north of ∼0-5°S) during the terminal "African Humid Period" and a weaker southeast African monsoon. For the LGM (the '21K experiment'), however, significant discrepancies exist both between model simulations, and between existing palaeodata and simulated conditions, both in terms of direction and amplitude of change. None of the PMIP3 simulations reflect the pattern inferred from the palaeodata. Two major discrepancies have been identified to explain this: 1) the limited sensitivity of the southern monsoon domain to the colder temperatures of the Indian Ocean (-2 °C), and 2) the absence of changes in the dynamic of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation over the entire basin, despite the exposure of the Sahul and Sunda shelves that weakened convection over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the LGM. These results indicate that some major features of the atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections between the different monsoon regions require further consideration as models evolve.

  13. Rainfall generation

    Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Raj

    This chapter presents an overview of methods for stochastic generation of rainfall at annual to subdaily time scales, at single- to multiple-point locations, and in a changing climatic regime. Stochastic rainfall generators are used to provide inputs for risk assessment of natural or engineering systems that can undergo failure under sustained (high or low) extremes. As a result, generation of rainfall has evolved to provide options that adequately represent such conditions, leading to sequences that exhibit low-frequency variability of a nature similar to the observed rainfall. The chapter consists of three key sections: the first two outlining approaches for rainfall generation using endogenous predictor variables and the third highlighting approaches for generation using exogenous predictors often simulated to represent future climatic conditions. The first section presents approaches for generation of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall, both at single-point locations and multiple sites, with an emphasis on alternatives that ensure appropriate representation of low-frequency variability in the generated rainfall sequences. The second section highlights advancements in the subdaily rainfall generation procedures including commonly used approaches for daily to subdaily rainfall generation. The final section (generation using exogenous predictors) presents a range of alternatives for stochastic downscaling of rainfall for climate change impact assessments of natural and engineering systems. We conclude the chapter by outlining some of the key challenges that remain to be addressed, especially in generation under climate change conditions, with an emphasis on the importance of incorporating uncertainty present in both measurements and models, in the rainfall sequences that are generated.

  14. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I


    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  15. Artificial neural network-based model for the prediction of optimal growth and culture conditions for maximum biomass accumulation in multiple shoot cultures of Centella asiatica.

    Prasad, Archana; Prakash, Om; Mehrotra, Shakti; Khan, Feroz; Mathur, Ajay Kumar; Mathur, Archana


    An artificial neural network (ANN)-based modelling approach is used to determine the synergistic effect of five major components of growth medium (Mg, Cu, Zn, nitrate and sucrose) on improved in vitro biomass yield in multiple shoot cultures of Centella asiatica. The back propagation neural network (BPNN) was employed to predict optimal biomass accumulation in terms of growth index over a defined culture duration of 35 days. The four variable concentrations of five media components, i.e. MgSO4 (0, 0.75, 1.5, 3.0 mM), ZnSO4 (0, 15, 30, 60 μM), CuSO4 (0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 μM), NO3 (20, 30, 40, 60 mM) and sucrose (1, 3, 5, 7 %, w/v) were taken as inputs for the ANN model. The designed model was evaluated by performing three different sets of validation experiments that indicated a greater similarity between the target and predicted dataset. The results of the modelling experiment suggested that 1.5 mM Mg, 30 μM Zn, 0.1 μM Cu, 40 mM NO3 and 6 % (w/v) sucrose were the respective optimal concentrations of the tested medium components for achieving maximum growth index of 1654.46 with high centelloside yield (62.37 mg DW/culture) in the cultured multiple shoots. This study can facilitate the generation of higher biomass of uniform, clean, good quality C. asiatica herb that can efficiently be utilized by pharmaceutical industries.

  16. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    E. Arnone


    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas.

    In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative.

    Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test.

    Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations

  17. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    E. Arnone


    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  18. Research on the Fine-Scale Spatial Uniformity of Natural Rainfall and Rainfall from a Rainfall Simulator with a Rotary Platform (RSRP

    Bo Liu


    Full Text Available Abstract: The accurate production of a rainfall environment similar to natural rainfall by a rainfall simulator (RS is a crucial and challenging task in rainfall instrument testing or calibration. Although the spatial uniformity of rainfall accumulation is a key parameter of an RS, the spatial uniformity comparison between simulated rainfall and natural rainfall, and the spatial uniformity improvements for an RS are scant in the literature. In this study, a fine-scale natural rainfall experiment was studied using the same testing methods of an RS and the rainfall uniformity was evaluated using the Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient (CU. Simultaneously, factors influencing the spatial uniformity of natural rainfall, including the average rainfall accumulation (RA, the deviation of RA, and the area of the test zone, were analyzed. The results successfully reproduced some of the behaviors observed in natural rainfall experiments, showing that CU is dependent on these parameters. Based on these studies, we developed a rainfall simulator with a rotary platform (RSRP and found that although spatial uniformity of the RSRP was greatly improved using an appropriate rotary speed, it was not consistent with the spatial uniformity of natural rainfall. Furthermore, we tested four tipping-bucket rain gauges using this imperfect RSRP, and found that the RSRP might acquire the instrumental errors associated with RA for a tested rainfall instrument.

  19. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun


    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  20. Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan

    Chen, J. C.; C. D. Jan; Huang, W. S.


    This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm) were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N) was also investigated via image analy...

  1. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    Witter, J.V.


    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  2. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.


    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  3. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    S. Yin


    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event, EI30, is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models that relate more commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to rainfall erosivity. Eleven stations with one-minute temporal resolution rainfall data collected from 1961 through 2000 in the eastern water-erosion areas of China were used to develop and calibrate 21 models. Seven independent stations, also with one-minute data, were utilized to validate those models, together with 20 previously published equations. Results showed that models in this study performed better or similar to models from previous research to estimate rainfall erosivity for these data. Prediction capabilities, as determined using symmetric mean absolute percentage errors and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients, were demonstrated for the 41 models including those for estimating erosivity at event, daily, monthly, yearly, average monthly and average annual time scales. Prediction capabilities were generally better using higher resolution rainfall data as inputs. For example, models with rainfall amount and maximum 60 min rainfall amount as inputs performed better than models with rainfall amount and maximum daily rainfall amount, which performed better than those with only rainfall amount. Recommendations are made for choosing the appropriate estimation equation, which depend on objectives and data availability.

  4. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Álvaro José Back


    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  5. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Olaniya Olusegun Mayowa; Sahar Hadi Pour; Shamsuddin Shahid; Morteza Mohsenipour; Sobri Bin Harun; Arien Heryansyah; Tarmizi Ismail


    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  6. New algorithm for integration between wireless microwave sensor network and radar for improved rainfall measurement and mapping

    Liberman, Y.; Samuels, R.; Alpert, P.; Messer, H.


    One of the main challenges for meteorological and hydrological modelling is accurate rainfall measurement and mapping across time and space. To date, the most effective methods for large-scale rainfall estimates are radar, satellites, and, more recently, received signal level (RSL) measurements derived from commercial microwave networks (CMNs). While these methods provide improved spatial resolution over traditional rain gauges, they have their limitations as well. For example, wireless CMNs, which are comprised of microwave links (ML), are dependant upon existing infrastructure and the ML' arbitrary distribution in space. Radar, on the other hand, is known in its limitation for accurately estimating rainfall in urban regions, clutter areas and distant locations. In this paper the pros and cons of the radar and ML methods are considered in order to develop a new algorithm for improving rainfall measurement and mapping, which is based on data fusion of the different sources. The integration is based on an optimal weighted average of the two data sets, taking into account location, number of links, rainfall intensity and time step. Our results indicate that, by using the proposed new method, we not only generate more accurate 2-D rainfall reconstructions, compared with actual rain intensities in space, but also the reconstructed maps are extended to the maximum coverage area. By inspecting three significant rain events, we show that our method outperforms CMNs or the radar alone in rain rate estimation, almost uniformly, both for instantaneous spatial measurements, as well as in calculating total accumulated rainfall. These new improved 2-D rainfall maps, as well as the accurate rainfall measurements over large areas at sub-hourly timescales, will allow for improved understanding, initialization, and calibration of hydrological and meteorological models mainly necessary for water resource management and planning.

  7. Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

    Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.


    Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi-mum

  8. Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

    Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.


    Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

  9. Congener-specific analysis of the accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by aquatic organisms in the maximum turbidity zone of the St. Lawrence estuary, Québec, Canada.

    Gagnon, M M; Dodson, J J; Comba, M E; Kaiser, K L


    The polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination of the biota of the St. Lawrence estuary maximum turbidity zone (MTZ) was investigated. The species analyzed consist of zooplankton (mostly Neomysis americana), larval smelt (Osmerus mordax), juvenile smelt, juvenile tomcod (Microgadus tomcod) and adult smelt, tomcod and capelin (Mallotus villosus). A significant increase in total PCB contamination from zooplankton to all fish developmental stages indicates that the St. Lawrence MTZ is a site of significant PCB contamination. The total PCB contamination of adult smelt and tomcod sampled in the St. Lawrence MTZ was greater than the limit of 0.1 ppm set by the International Joint Commission for the protection of predators. For zooplankton, tomcod and capelin, significant correlations were found between lipid content and PCB contamination. The congener-specific analyses showed that the bioconcentration factor of the individual congeners varied with the species involved and with the molecular structure of the congener. It was found that the chlorine atoms in positions 2, 4 and 5 on at least one phenyl ring of the PCB molecule was a dominant factor causing accumulation of PCBs in aquatic organisms. The pattern of PCB congeners found in beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) whale tissues is similar to the PCB pattern found in the St. Lawrence estuary MTZ biota.

  10. Maximum Fidelity

    Kinkhabwala, Ali


    The most fundamental problem in statistics is the inference of an unknown probability distribution from a finite number of samples. For a specific observed data set, answers to the following questions would be desirable: (1) Estimation: Which candidate distribution provides the best fit to the observed data?, (2) Goodness-of-fit: How concordant is this distribution with the observed data?, and (3) Uncertainty: How concordant are other candidate distributions with the observed data? A simple unified approach for univariate data that addresses these traditionally distinct statistical notions is presented called "maximum fidelity". Maximum fidelity is a strict frequentist approach that is fundamentally based on model concordance with the observed data. The fidelity statistic is a general information measure based on the coordinate-independent cumulative distribution and critical yet previously neglected symmetry considerations. An approximation for the null distribution of the fidelity allows its direct conversi...

  11. New algorithm for integration between wireless microwave sensor network and radar for improved rainfall measurement and mapping

    Y. Liberman


    Full Text Available One of the main challenges for meteorological and hydrological modelling is accurate rainfall measurement and mapping across time and space. To date the most effective methods for large scale rainfall estimates are radar, satellites, and more recently, received signal level (RSL measurements received from commercial microwave networks (CMN. While these methods provide improved spatial resolution over traditional rain gauges, these have their limitations as well. For example, the wireless CMN, which are comprised of microwave links (ML, are dependant upon existing infrastructure, and the ML arbitrary distribution in space. Radar, on the other hand, is known in its limitation in accurately estimating rainfall in urban regions, clutter areas and distant locations. In this paper the pros and cons of the radar and ML methods are considered in order to develop a new algorithm for improving rain fall measurement and mapping, which is based on data fusion of the different sources. The integration is based on an optimal weighted average of the two data sets, taking into account location, number of links, rainfall intensity and time step. Our results indicate that by using the proposed new method we not only generate a more accurate 2-D rainfall reconstructions, compared with actual rain intensities in space, but also the reconstructed maps are extended to the maximum coverage area. By inspecting three significant rain events, we show an improvement of rain rate estimation over CMN or radar alone, almost uniformly, both for instantaneous spatial measurements, as well as in calculating total accumulated rainfall. These new improved 2-D rainfall maps, and the accurate rainfall measurements over large areas at sub-hourly time scales, will allow for improved understanding, initialization and calibration of hydrological and meteorological models necessary, mainly, for water resource management and planning.

  12. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.


    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  13. Rainfall simulation in education

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia


    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  14. Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

    Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai


    Most of the landslide cases in Taiwan were triggered by rainfall or earthquake events. The heavy rainfall in the typhoon seasons, from June to October, causes the landslide hazard more serious. Renai Towhship is of the most large landslide cases after 2009 Typhoon Morakot (from Aug. 5 to Aug. 10, 2009) in Taiwan. Around 2,744 landslides cases with the total landslide area of 21.5 km2 (landslide ratio =1.8%), including 26 large landslide cases, induced after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Towhship. The area of each large landslides case is more than 0.1 km2, and the area of the largest case is around 0.96 km2. 58% of large landslide cases locate in the area with metamorphosed sandstone. The mean slope of 26 large landslide cases ranges from 15 degree to 56 degree, and the accumulated rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot ranges from 530 mm to 937 mm. Three methods, including frequency ratio method (abbreviated as FR), weights of evidence method (abbreviated as WOE), and logistic regression method (abbreviated as LR), are used in this study to establish the landslides susceptibility in the Renai Township, Nantou County, Taiwan. Eight landslide related-factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, land use, distance to drainage, distance to fault, accumulation rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot, are used to establish the landslide susceptibility models in this study. The landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot is also used to test the model performance in this study. The mean accumulated rainfall in Renai Township during 2009 typhoon Morakot was around 735 mm with the maximum 1-hr, 3-hrs, and 6-hrs rainfall intensity of 44 mm/1-hr, 106 mm/3-hrs and 204 mm/6-hrs, respectively. The range of original susceptibility values established by three methods are 4.0 to 20.9 for FR, -33.8 to -16.1 for WOE, and -41.7 to 5.7 for LR, and the mean landslide susceptibility value are 8.0, -24.6 and 0.38, respectively. The AUC values are 0.815 for FR, 0.816 for WOE, and 0

  15. Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines

    Villafuerte, Marcelino Q.; Matsumoto, Jun; Akasaka, Ikumi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.; Kubota, Hisayuki; Cinco, Thelma A.


    Owing to the increasing concerns about climate change due to the recent extreme rainfall events in the Philippines, long-term trends and variability in rainfall extremes in the country are investigated using 60-year (1951-2010) daily rainfall data from 35 meteorological stations. Rainfall extremes are described using seven extreme precipitation indices (EPI) that characterize daily rainfall in terms of intensity, accumulation, and duration on a seasonal perspective. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test is employed in combination with the moving blocks bootstrapping technique to detect significant trends in EPI. The results suggest a tendency toward a drying condition for the dry season, January-March (JFM), as indicated by statistically significant decreasing trends in seasonal wet days total rainfall (PCPTOT) associated with increasing trends in maximum length of dry spell (LDS). In contrast, statistically significant increasing trends in maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5day) and decreasing trends in LDS denote a wetting condition during the July-September (JAS) season, particularly at stations located in the northwest and central Philippines. The trends obtained are further assessed by examining the longer time series of EPI at four meteorological stations (Aparri, Dagupan, Iloilo, and Masbate) that have rainfall data from 1911 to 2010. The longer historical data revealed that the trends obtained in the shorter period (1951-2010) could either be consistent with the continuous long-term trends, as observed in RX5day during JAS at Aparri and Masbate, or represent interdecadal variability as was observed at Dagupan and Iloilo. The long-term (1911-2010) southwestward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high associated with a weakening of the 850-hPa westerly wind over the South China Sea partly provides a possible cause of the trends in EPI during JAS, whereas the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon contributed somewhat to the trends obtained during

  16. Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

    Svoboda Vojtěch


    Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

  17. Application of radar data to estimate distributed return periods of extreme rainfall events over Trondheim

    Abdella, Yisak Sultan


    The return period of a given rainfall intensity is an important parameter for the Trondheim municipality since the drainage systems in Trondheim have been and are still being designed on the basis of a selected return period. Since rainfall is a spatially distributed phenomenon, a single event passing over a city can yield different return periods at different locations in the same city. In order to account for this spatial variability, a tool has been developed in this project for determining distributed return periods for rainfall events over Trondheim using the measurements from Rissa radar. The tool includes a method for adjusting radar rainfall using rain gauge measurements and an accumulation technique which accounts for storm movement and temporal variation in intensity. The tool has been tested on two extreme events which occurred on July 29 2007 and August 13 2007. The application on the two events has demonstrated a fully-automated estimation of distributed return periods using readily available data. For the particular rain gauge network in Trondheim, it has also been shown how areas of maximum intensity observed by the radar can be missed by all the gauges. (author)

  18. Intrastorm scale rainfall interception dynamics in a mature coniferous forest stand

    Iida, Shin'ichi; Levia, Delphis F.; Shimizu, Akira; Shimizu, Takanori; Tamai, Koji; Nobuhiro, Tatsuhiko; Kabeya, Naoki; Noguchi, Shoji; Sawano, Shinji; Araki, Makoto


    Canopy interception of rainfall is an important process in the water balance of forests. The intrastorm dynamics of canopy interception is less well understood than event scale interception. Accordingly, armed with measurements of hourly interception intensity (i) from the field, this study is among the first to examine the differences in canopy interception dynamics between the first and second halves of rainfall events to quantify dynamic storage values for a coniferous forest in Japan. At this site, experimental results demonstrated that: (1) the relationship between interception loss (I) and gross rainfall (GR) at the event scale is better explained by a parabolic curve than a linear relationship, and there is a low correlation between rainfall intensity (gr) and i; (2) the ratio of accumulated i during the first half (IF) to that of gr (GRF) was larger than the second half (IS/GRS), with no significant correlations between potential evaporation during first half (PEF) vs IF or the second half (PES) vs IS; and (3) water storage capacity was similar to the magnitude of maximum I. By emphasizing the comparison between IF and IS, this study concludes that the water storage on tree surface is more important than losses by wet canopy evaporation and splash during rain. This study also adds insights into intrastorm interception dynamics of coniferous forests which are necessary to better model and forecast interception losses.

  19. Un método para el análisis de frecuencia regional de lluvias máximas diarias: aplicación en los Andes bolivianos A method for regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall: application in the Bolivian Andes

    José Antonio Luna Vera


    Full Text Available Se presenta un análisis de frecuencia regional con series de lluvia diaria máxima anual para una zona con escasa información. La compleja orografía de montañas y el altiplano de una región en la cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce diferentes patrones de lluvia diaria. La combinación de los Momentos-L y el análisis de conglomerados resultan adecuados para identificarlas regiones homogéneas de las series máximas anuales. El trabajo desarrollado define 4 regiones homogéneas. La región 1 comprende las estaciones ubicadas en el altiplano y la zona Sur Este. La región 2 abarca el altiplano central y la cuenca del Río La Paz, compuesto por cuencas interandinas. La 3 delimita claramente las estaciones de la zona tropical amazónica; y la 4 está compuesta por estaciones ubicadas en las montañas del Norte. Se probaron diversas distribuciones para el análisis regional de frecuencias aplicando la técnica de estaciones-año; los mejores resultados se obtuvieron con las funciones Gumbel y Doble Gumbel. Finalmente se expresan las ecuaciones regionales y se comparan con algunas series puntuales de cada región, con el objeto de verificar la aplicabilidad de la metodología propuesta para fines de diseño hidrológico.A regional frequency analysis of daily annual maximum rainfall series for an area with poor information is presented. The complex topography mountains and the highlands region in the Cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce different patterns of daily rainfall. The combination of L-Moments and cluster analysis are adequate to identify the homogeneous regions of the annual maximum series. The work defines 4 homogeneous regions. Region 1 includes the stations located in the highlands and south-east. Region 2 covers the central highlands and La Paz River Basin, consisting of inter-Andean basins. Region 3 clearly defines the Amazonian basin stations and 4 is composed of stations located in the northern mountains. Different

  20. Rainfall Simulation: methods, research questions and challenges

    Ries, J. B.; Iserloh, T.


    -to-date and the best measurement method for drop-spectra and drop fall velocities. The measured rainfall amounts resulting from the different methods differ by two orders of magnitude, due to the different exposure times and measuring areas, and thus the efficiency also ranges between 0.2 and 108 %. This also shows that a standardized method for the calibration of simulated rainfall should be determined. As a third point, the three major challenges for the experimental soil erosion research of the Physical Geography Department in Trier will be presented: 1) Influence of land-use and treatments, 2) Influence of Sheep (goat) trampling and 3) Influence of wind-driven rain. The presented results indicate increases of the sediment yields due to wind influence between 113 % and at the maximum even 1100 %, that equals one order of magnitude. The main conclusions are: Rainfall simulations are an adequate tool for soil erosion studies with different experimental set-ups. A calibration of the simulated rainfall is necessary, and an appropriate method should be found. Rainfall simulations with small portable simulators show discriminative results depending on land-cover types and treatments. Wind-driven rain increases the soil erosion rate, while the runoff stays almost unaffected. This fact has to be considered for the interpretation of rainfall simulation results gained excluding wind influence, as it is usually the case.

  1. Spatial analysis of rainfall variation using variogram model parameters of X-band radar images in a small mountainous catchment

    Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Bodoque, José M.; Bermejo, Marcos; Rivero-Honegger, Carlos; Yagüe, Carlos; Monjo, Robert; Tapiador, Francisco J.


    The present study deals the rainfall spatial variability of a small mountainous catchment, which includes the spatial distribution and variability of convective and stratiform events. This work focuses on the precipitation events with hydrological response in Venero-Claro Basin (Avila, Spain). In this basin of 15 square kilometers, flood events of different magnitudes have been often registered. Therefore, any improvement in understanding rainfall characteristics in the area can be of special importance in rainfall estimation and hence to calibrate and validate hydrological models. These enhancements imply more objectivity of risk studies and more predictive and preventive capacity. To separate events by origin it has been used the dimensionless index defined by Monjo (2015), according to the relative temporal distribution of maximum intensities. The main advantages of this method are that it does not require thresholds, so it can be applied for each rain gauge. The geostatistical variogram tool is used to quantify the spatial characteristics of both kinds of events. Hourly rainfall accumulations over the area are computed with observations from one of the 5 existing X-band radar in Spain and 7 rain gauges located in the zone. For each hour the rainfall variogram model has been fitted with the aid of the X-band radar images. Valuable information is extracted from the stratiform and convective ensembles of variogram models. The variogram model parameters are analyzed to determine characteristics of spatial continuity that differentiates stratiform and convective events, and quartiles of sills and ranges in both ensembles are compared.

  2. prediction of rainfall magnitudes and variations in nigeria

    engr peter ekpo

    Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. .... maximum annual rainfall depth of return period T. ..... of Gdańsk Meteorological Station. ... Landsliding in Pittwater. Australian. Geomechanics: Vol 42 No 1 March 2007. 3.

  3. What rainfall events trigger landslides on the West Coast US?

    Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia


    A dataset of landslide occurrences compiled by collating google news reports covers 9 full years of data. We show that, while this compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it is adequate to capture the distribution of events in the major urban areas of the West Coast US and it can be used to provide a quantitative relationship between landslides and rainfall events. The case of the Seattle metropolitan area is presented as an example. The landslide dataset shows a clear seasonality in landslide occurrence, corresponding to the seasonality of rainfall, modified by the accumulation of soil moisture as winter progresses. Interannual variability of landslide occurrences is also linked to interannual variability of monthly rainfall. In most instances, landslides are clustered on consecutive days or at least within the same pentad and correspond to days of large rainfall accumulation at the regional scale. A joint analysis of the landslide data and of the high-resolution PRISM daily rainfall accumulation shows that on days when landslides occurred, the distribution of rainfall was shifted, with rainfall accumulation higher than 10mm/day being more common. Accumulations above 50mm/day much increase the probability of landslides, including the possibility of a major landslide event (one with multiple landslides in a day). The synoptic meteorological conditions associated with these major events show a mid-tropospheric ridge to the south of the target area steering a surface low and bringing enhanced precipitable water towards the Pacific North West. The interaction of the low-level flow with the local orography results in instances of a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone, with widespread rainfall accumulation above 30mm/day and localized maxima as high as 100mm/day or more.

  4. Main diurnal cycle pattern of rainfall in East Java

    Rais, Achmad Fahruddin; Yunita, Rezky


    The diurnal cycle pattern of rainfall was indicated as an intense feature in East Java. The research of diurnal cycle generally was only based on satellite estimation which had limitations in accuracy and temporal resolution. The hourly rainfall data of Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH) and gauge were blended using the best correction method between transformation distribution (DT) and quantile mapping (QM) to increase the accuracy. We used spatiotemporal composite to analyse the concentration patterns of maximum rainfall and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify the spatial and temporal dominant patterns of diurnal rainfall. QM was corrected CMORPH data since it was best method. The eastern region of East Java had a rainfall peak at 14 local time (LT) and the western region had a rainfall peak at 16 LT.

  5. 1951~2010年中国年代际累积暴雨时空格局变化的相关因素研究%Research on Related Factors to Decadal Accumulated Heavy Rainfall Spatio-temporal Patterns Change in China During 1951-2010

    史培军; 孔锋


    Recent studies have noted a worldwide increase in the occurrence of extreme-precipitation events, this increase has been attributed to warming climate. Although other anthropogenic factors are recognized to be important, their relative contributions remain unclear. We use daily rainfall data from 659 meteorological stations in China, large scale climatic and anthropogenic indices to identify major causes of, and quantify their contribution to, a marked increase in heavy rainfall in 1951-2010. The decadal heavy rainfall amount (HRA), heavy rainfall days (HRD) and heavy rainfall intensity (HRI) increased by 58.6-68.7, 46.5-60.2 and 7.1-11.5 percent respectively. Our analysis suggests that although this trend could be explained by both large-scale climate phenomena, and local and regional anthropogenic activities, the latter such as urbanization, industrialization and associated air pollution have the strongest influence. Contributing roughly at the same magnitude, such factors explain 61.5, 58.5 and 65.5 percent of the variance in HRA, HRD and HRI, respectively, where as the large-scale climate phenomena explain only 24.3, 26.2 and 21.9 percent respectively. The expansion of spatial distribution of accumulated HRA and HRD over time shows a statistically significant and increasing correlation with the spatial distribution of population density and annual low-visibility days. Taken together, these results suggest that the substantial increase in heavy rainfall across large parts of China during the past six decades is very likely triggered by large scale and rapid urbanization, industrialization and associated air pollution. Previous studies linking urbanization to rainfall are mostly focusing on the impact on total rainfall and mostly considered only the local or city scale. Previous studies found urbanization as likely cause of increased heavy rainfall in India over five decades. Our results support this finding, but also show that urbanization is only one of the

  6. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho


    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  7. Space-time organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall: effects on the identification of the rainfall threshold relationships

    Borga, Marco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Creutin, Jean Dominique; Marra, Francesco


    Debris flow occurrence is generally forecasted by means of empirical rainfall depth-duration thresholds which are often derived based on rain gauge observations (Guzzetti et al., 2008). Rainfall sampling errors, related to the sparse nature of raingauge data, lead to underestimation of the intensity-duration thresholds (Nikolopoulos et al., 2014, Nikolopoulos et al., 2015). This underestimation may be large when debris flows are triggered by convective rainfall events, characterized by limited spatial extent, turning into less efficient forecasts of debris flow occurrence. This work investigates the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall patterns and its effects on the derived rainfall threshold relationships using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data for 82 debris flows events occurred in the eastern Italian Alps. We analyze the spatial organization of rainfall depths relative to the rainfall occurred over the debris flows initiation point using the distance from it as the main coordinate observing that, on average, debris flows initiation points are characterized by a maximum in the rainfall depth field. We investigate the relationship between spatial organization and duration of rainfall pointing out that the rainfall underestimation is larger for the shorter durations and increases regularly as the distance between rainfall measurement location and debris flow initiation point increases. We introduce an analytical framework that explains how the combination of the mean rainfall depth spatial pattern and its relationship with rainfall duration causes the bias observed in the raingauge-based thresholds. The consistency of this analytical framework is proved by using a Monte Carlo sampling of radar rainfall fields. References Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Stark, C.P., 2008. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5, 3-17, 10.1007/s10346-625 007-0112-1 Nikolopoulos, E.I., S

  8. Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine


    The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

  9. Estimation of Real-Time Flood Risk on Roads Based on Rainfall Calculated by the Revised Method of Missing Rainfall

    Eunmi Kim


    Full Text Available Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities is on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and the growth of impermeable areas due to urbanization. This study suggests a method to estimate real-time flood risk on roads for drivers based on the accumulated rainfall. The amount of rainfall of a road link, which is an intensive type, is calculated by using the revised method of missing rainfall in meteorology, because the rainfall is not measured on roads directly. To process in real time with a computer, we use the inverse distance weighting (IDW method, which is a suitable method in the computing system and is commonly used in relation to precipitation due to its simplicity. With real-time accumulated rainfall, the flooding history, rainfall range causing flooding from previous rainfall information and frequency probability of precipitation are used to determine the flood risk on roads. The result of simulation using the suggested algorithms shows the high concordance rate between actual flooded areas in the past and flooded areas derived from the simulation for the research region in Busan, Korea.

  10. The Wageningen Rainfall Simulator

    Lassu, Tamas; Seeger, K.M.; Peters, P.D.; Keesstra, S.D.


    The set-up and characterisation of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator (RS) at Wageningen University, the Netherlands, are presented. It is equipped with four Lechler nozzles (two nr. 460·788 and two nr. 461·008). The tilting irrigation plot is 6 m long and 2·5 m wide. An electrical pump

  11. Observed and projected urban extreme rainfall events in India

    Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal; Pai, D. S.


    We examine changes in extreme rainfall indices over 57 major urban areas in India under the observed (1901-2010) and projected future climate (2010-2060). Between 1901 and 2010, only four out of the total 57 urban areas showed a significant (p-value urban areas experienced significant increases in the extreme rainfall indices for the different periods. Moreover, rainfall maxima for 1-10 day durations and at 100 year return period did not change significantly over the majority of urban areas in the post-1955 period. Results do not indicate any significant change (p > 0.05) in the pooled mean and distribution of the extreme rainfall indices for the pre- and post-1983 periods revealing an insignificant role of urbanization on rainfall extremes in the major urban areas in India. We find that at the majority of urban areas changes in the extreme rainfall indices are driven by large scale climate variability. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the CORDEX-South Asia program showed a significant bias in the monsoon maximum rainfall and rainfall maxima at 100 year return period for the majority of urban areas. For instance, most of the models fail to simulate rainfall maxima within ±10% bias, which can be considered appropriate for a storm water design at many urban areas. Rainfall maxima at 1-3 day durations and 100 year return period is projected to increase significantly under the projected future climate at the majority of urban areas in India. The number of urban areas with significant increases in rainfall maxima under the projected future climate is far larger than the number of areas that experienced significant changes in the historic climate (1901-2010), which warrants a careful attention for urban storm water infrastructure planning and management.

  12. Sensitivity of point scale runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

    A. J. Hearman


    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to south western Australian rainfall, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitions water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store are controlled by thresholds. For example, saturation excess is triggered when the soil water content reaches the storage capacity threshold. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and inturn, relating these to average storm intensities. By relating maximum soil infiltration capacities to saturated drainage rates (f*, we were able to split soils into two groups; those where all runoff is a result of infiltration excess alone (f*≤0.2 and those susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff (f*>0.2. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating saturated drainage rates to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by

  13. Uncertainty evaluation of design rainfall for urban flood risk analysis.

    Fontanazza, C M; Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V


    A reliable and long dataset describing urban flood locations, volumes and depths would be an ideal prerequisite for assessing flood frequency distributions. However, data are often piecemeal and long-term hydraulic modelling is often adopted to estimate floods from historical rainfall series. Long-term modelling approaches are time- and resource-consuming, and synthetically designed rainfalls are often used to estimate flood frequencies. The present paper aims to assess the uncertainty of such an approach and for suggesting improvements in the definition of synthetic rainfall data for flooding frequency analysis. According to this aim, a multivariate statistical analysis based on a copula method was applied to rainfall features (total depth, duration and maximum intensity) to generate synthetic rainfalls that are more consistent with historical events. The procedure was applied to a real case study, and the results were compared with those obtained by simulating other typical synthetic rainfall events linked to intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. The copula-based multi-variate analysis is more robust and adapts well to experimental flood locations even if it is more complex and time-consuming. This study demonstrates that statistical correlations amongst rainfall frequency, duration, volume and peak intensity can partially explain the weak reliability of flood-frequency analyses based on synthetic rainfall events.

  14. Analysis of extreme rainfall in the Ebre Observatory (Spain)

    Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Peña, Juan Carlos; Rius, Anna; Solé, J. Germán; Redaño, Ángel


    The relationship between maximum rainfall rates for time intervals between 5 min and 24 h has been studied from almost a century (1905-2003) of rainfall data registered in the Ebre Observatory (Tarragona, Spain). Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and their master equation for every return period in the location have been obtained, as well as the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for all the considered durations. In particular, the value of the 1-day PMP has resulted to be 415 mm, very similar to previous estimations of this variable for the same location. Extreme rainfall events recorded in this period have been analyzed and classified according to their temporal scale. Besides the three main classes of cases corresponding to the main meteorological scales, local, mesoscale, and synoptic, a fourth group constituted by complex events with high-intensity rates for a large range of durations has been identified also, indicating the contribution of different scale meteorological processes acting together in the origin of the rainfall. A weighted intensity index taking into account the maximum rainfall rate in representative durations of every meteorological scale has been calculated for every extreme rainfall event in order to reflect their complexity.

  15. Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

    Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei


    Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

  16. [Rainfall intensity effects on nutrients transport in surface runoff from farmlands in gentle slope hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin].

    Li, Rui-ling; Zhang, Yong-chun; Liu, Zhuang; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Wei-xin; Zhang, Hong-ling


    To investigate the effect of rainfall on agricultural nonpoint source pollution, watershed scale experiments were conducted to study the characteristics of nutrients in surface runoff under different rainfall intensities from farmlands in gentle slope hilly areas around Taihu Lake. Rainfall intensity significantly affected N and P concentrations in runoff. Rainfall intensity was positively related to TP, PO4(3-) -P and NH4+ -N event mean concentrations(EMC). However, this study have found the EMC of TN and NO3- -N to be positively related to rainfall intensity under light rain and negatively related to rainfall intensity under heavy rain. TN and TP site mean amounts (SMA) in runoff were positively related to rainfall intensity and were 1.91, 311.83, 127.65, 731.69 g/hm2 and 0.04, 7.77, 2.99, 32.02 g/hm2 with rainfall applied under light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm respectively. N in runoff was mainly NO3- -N and NH4+ -N and was primarily in dissolved form from Meilin soils. Dissolved P (DP) was the dominant form of TP under light rain, but particulate P (PP) mass loss increased with the increase of rainfall intensity and to be the dominant form when the rainfall intensity reaches rainstorm. Single relationships were used to describe the dependence of TN and TP mass losses in runoff on rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity, average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration respectively. The results showed a significant positive correlation between TN mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01).

  17. Rainfall thresholds as support for timing fungicide applications in the control of potato late blight in Ecuador and Peru

    Kromann, Peter; Taipe, Arturo; Perez, Willmer G.


    Accumulated rainfall thresholds were studied in seven field experiments conducted in Ecuador and Peru for their value in timing applications of fungicide to control potato late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans. Fungicide regimes based on accumulated rainfall thresholds ranging from 10 to ...

  18. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

    Natalie Melissa McLean


    Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

  19. The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

    Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

    Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

  20. Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Álvaro José Back


    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min and the return period T (y in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

  1. Methods to determine the impact of rainfall on fuels and burned area in southern African savannas

    Archibald, S


    Full Text Available of the models by up to 30% compared with indices that only used the previous year’s rainfall. Up to 56% of the variance in burned area between years could be explained by an 18-month accumulated rainfall index. Linear models and probit models performed equally...

  2. Impact of the rainfall pattern on synthetic pesticides and copper runoff from a vineyard catchment

    Payraudeau, Sylvain; Meite, Fatima; Wiegert, Charline; Imfeld, Gwenaël


    Runoff is a major process of pesticide transport from agricultural land to downstream aquatic ecosystems. The impact of rainfall characteristics on the transport of runoff-related pesticide is rarely evaluated at the catchment scale. Here, we evaluate the influence of rainfall pattern on the mobilization of synthetic pesticides and copper fungicides in runoff from a small vineyard catchment, both at the plot and catchment scales. During two vineyard growing seasons in 2015 and 2016 (from March to October), we monitored rainfall, runoff, and concentrations of copper and 20 fungicides and herbicides applied by winegrowers at the Rouffach vineyard catchment (France, Alsace; 42.5 ha). Rainfall data were recorded within the catchment while runoff measurement and flow-proportional water sampling were carried out at the outlet of the plot (1486 m2; 87.5 × 17 m) and the catchment. In total, discharges of the 14 runoff events were continuously monitored between March and October 2015 using bubbler flow modules combined with Venturi channels. Detailed and distributed dataset on pesticide applications were extracted from survey (copper formulations and type of pesticides, amount and application dates). Pools of copper and synthetic pesticides were quantified weekly in the topsoil (0-3 cm) by systematic sampling across the catchment. The concentrations of copper (10 dried soil) and synthetic pesticides (close to the quantification limit, i.e. 0.05 µg.L-1) available in the top soil for off-site transport largely differed over time. Between March and October, an accumulation of copper of 10% was observed in the top-soil while pesticide concentration decreased below the quantification limits after a few days or weeks following application, depending of the compounds. The average runoff generated at the plot scale was very low (0.13% ± 0.30). The maximum runoff reached 1.37% during the storm of July 22, 2015. Synthetic pesticides exported by runoff was less than 1‰ of

  3. The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

    Sahany, Sandeep; Venugopal, V.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.


    The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential

  4. Rainfall Analyses of Coonoor Hill Station of Nilgiris District for Landslide Studies

    Ramani Sujatha, Evangelin; Suribabu, C. R.


    The most common triggering factor of landslides in a hill terrain is rainfall. Assessment of the extreme and antecedent rainfall events and its quantum is imperative to evaluate the temporal occurrence of landslides. It also plays a vital role in the choice of the preventive measures to be adopted. This study focuses on an in-depth rainfall analysis of Coonoor hill station. The analysis includes the study of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall patterns for a period of 80 years, between 1935 and 2013. Further, one day maximum, 5 day and more antecedent rainfall and its amount is calculated for the years between 2007-2012, 2014 and 2015.The result of the study indicates an increase in the normal rainfall based on the mean of 30 years of data (for the recent decades) and erratic pattern of rainfall during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon south-west monsoon periods. A detailed analysis of daily rainfall for the selected period indicates that extreme highest daily rainfall of more than 300 mm above occurred after consecutive rainfall trigged massive landslides comparing highest rainfall amount around 100 to 180 mm rainfall events.

  5. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation – Case Study

    Jarosińska Elżbieta


    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  6. Probabilistic forecasts based on radar rainfall uncertainty

    Liguori, S.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.


    The potential advantages resulting from integrating weather radar rainfall estimates in hydro-meteorological forecasting systems is limited by the inherent uncertainty affecting radar rainfall measurements, which is due to various sources of error [1-3]. The improvement of quality control and correction techniques is recognized to play a role for the future improvement of radar-based flow predictions. However, the knowledge of the uncertainty affecting radar rainfall data can also be effectively used to build a hydro-meteorological forecasting system in a probabilistic framework. This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic forecasting system developed to improve ensemble predictions over a small urban area located in the North of England. An ensemble of radar rainfall fields can be determined as the sum of a deterministic component and a perturbation field, the latter being informed by the knowledge of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the radar error assessed with reference to rain-gauges measurements. This approach is similar to the REAL system [4] developed for use in the Southern-Alps. The radar uncertainty estimate can then be propagated with a nowcasting model, used to extrapolate an ensemble of radar rainfall forecasts, which can ultimately drive hydrological ensemble predictions. A radar ensemble generator has been calibrated using radar rainfall data made available from the UK Met Office after applying post-processing and corrections algorithms [5-6]. One hour rainfall accumulations from 235 rain gauges recorded for the year 2007 have provided the reference to determine the radar error. Statistics describing the spatial characteristics of the error (i.e. mean and covariance) have been computed off-line at gauges location, along with the parameters describing the error temporal correlation. A system has then been set up to impose the space-time error properties to stochastic perturbations, generated in real-time at

  7. Downscaled TRMM Rainfall Time-Series for Catchment Hydrology Applications

    Tarnavsky, E.; Mulligan, M.


    Hydrology in semi-arid regions is controlled, to a large extent, by the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall defined in terms of rainfall depth and intensity. Thus, appropriate representation of the space-time variability of rainfall is essential for catchment-scale hydrological models applied in semi-arid regions. While spaceborne platforms equipped with remote sensing instruments provide information on a range of variables for hydrological modelling, including rainfall, the necessary spatial and temporal detail is rarely obtained from a single dataset. This paper presents a new dynamic model of dryland hydrology, DryMOD, which makes best use of free, public-domain remote sensing data for representation of key variables with a particular focus on (a) simulation of spatial rainfall fields and (b) the hydrological response to rainfall, particularly in terms of rainfall-runoff partitioning. In DryMOD, rainfall is simulated using a novel approach combining 1-km spatial detail from a climatology derived from the TRMM 2B31 dataset (mean monthly rainfall) and 3-hourly temporal detail from time-series derived from the 0.25-degree gridded TRMM 3B42 dataset (rainfall intensity). This allows for rainfall simulation at the hourly time step, as well as accumulation of infiltration, recharge, and runoff at the monthly time step. In combination with temperature, topography, and soil data, rainfall-runoff and soil moisture dynamics are simulated over large dryland regions. In order to investigate the hydrological response to rainfall and variable catchment characteristics, the model is applied to two very different catchments in the drylands of North and West Africa. The results of the study demonstrate the use of remote sensing-based estimates of precipitation intensity and volume for the simulation of critical hydrological parameters. The model allows for better spatial planning of water harvesting activities, as well as for optimisation of agricultural activities

  8. Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Rahman, M. Tauhid Ur; Hoque, Muhammad Azizul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul


    The aim of the present study was to investigate 50 years (1964-2013) of seasonal and annual rainfall trends and their fluctuation over time in northern Bangladesh. After testing the autocorrelation, non-parametric Mann-Kendall test along with Sen Slope estimator was used to examine rainfall trends and their magnitudes. The sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to identify any fluctuations in the trends over time and to detect the possible points of change in the rainfall series. We found that pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall is increasing in most of the rainfall stations. The only decrement in pre-monsoon rainfall was found for Ishurdi (1.28 mm/year). However, the sequential Mann-Kendall test detected decreasing pre-monsoon rainfall trend after early the 1990s. Monsoon rainfall showed a decreasing trend in the majority of the area studied. The maximum decrement in monsoon rainfall was found for Sylhet station (8.10 mm/year) and minimum in Mymensingh (1.53 mm/year). An upward monsoon rainfall trend was found for Rangpur (2.02 mm/year). Annual rainfall followed the monsoon rainfall trend. However, all of the positive and negative trends were found statistically non-significant at 95% confidence limit with the only exception for monsoon and annual rainfall at Rajshahi station. Rajshahi station was the only region where the monsoon and annual rainfall has a significant negative trend at 95% confidence limit. The sequential Mann-Kendall test detected several non-significant points of change for seasonal and annual rainfall at most of the stations. Periodic fluctuations were also detected. We observed that there were decreasing seasonal rainfall trend after early the 1990s for the majority of the stations.

  9. Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

    Pascale, Salvatore; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh-ul


    Precipitation seasonality of observational datasets and CMIP5 historical simulations are analyzed using novel quantitative measures based on information theory. Two new indicators, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of how peaked the shape of the annual rainfall curve is whereas the DSI quantifies the intensity of the rainfall during the wet season. The global monsoon regions feature the largest values of the DSI. For precipitation regimes featuring one maximum in the monthly rain distribution the RE is related to the duration of the wet season. We show that the RE and the DSI are measures of rainfall seasonality fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercompari...

  10. Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S.

    Matsui, Toshihisa; Mocko, David; Lee, Myong-In; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Suarez, Max J.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.


    Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.

  11. Can SAPHIR Instrument Onboard MEGHATROPIQUES Retrieve Hydrometeors and Rainfall Characteristics ?

    Goyal, J. M.; Srinivasan, J.; Satheesh, S. K.


    capability to retrieve rainfall and hydrometeors and especially channel 6 has the maximum potential for it. Thus this capabilities of SAPHIR can be used to develop precipitation product in combination with other GPM satellites to get higher temporal resolution rainfall product for the world.

  12. Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over NASA's Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) Domain

    ElSaadani, Mohamed; Quintero, Felipe; Krajewski, Witold F.; Goska, Radoslaw; Seo, Bongchul


    Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) is a NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to provide better understanding of the strengths and limitations of satellite products in the context of hydrologic applications. IFloodS took place in the central to north eastern part of Iowa in Midwestern United States during the months of April-June, 2013. Quantifying the physical characteristics, space/time variability and assessing satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainties at instantaneous to daily time scales are of the main objectives of IFloodS field experiment beside assessing hydrologic predictive skills as a function of space/time scales and discerning the relative roles of rainfall quantities in flood genesis. The errors of rainfall estimation of three satellite rainfall products (TRMM's TMPA 3B42 V7, CPC's CMORPH and CHRS at UCI's PERSIANN) have been characterized in space and time using NCEP Stage IV radar-rainfall product as a benchmark for comparison. The satellite rainfall products used in this study represent 3 hourly, quarter degree, rainfall accumulation. The benchmark rainfall accumulation has an hourly, four kilometers, resolutions in time and space respectively. We also investigate the adequacy of satellite rainfall products as inputs for hydrological modeling. To this end, these products were used as forcing for the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) hydrological model and produced discharge simulations in a high-resolution drainage network. The IFC hydrological model has been validated using radar rainfall product and thus, the hydrological outputs becomes the reference of comparison for the other rainfall products. We evaluated the hydrological performance of the rainfall products at different spatial scales, ranging from 2 to 14,000 square miles using stream discharge information from USGS gauges network. We discuss the adequacy of the rainfall products for flood forecasting at different spatial scales.

  13. Properties of Extreme Poin Rainfall II

    Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Harremoës, Poul; Rosbjerg, Dan


    As an alternative to the traditional non-parametric method the partial duration series approach with exponentially distributed exceedances is used to model extreme values of depth and maximum 10 min intensity per rainfall event, measured at gauges placed at different locations in Denmark....... A statistically significant regional variation is documented and shown to be of importance to engineering application. The apparent variability is divided into sampling uncertainty and uncertainty caused by true regional variability. Further, a method for assessing the total inherent design uncertainty, taking...

  14. The adjoint sensitivity of heavy rainfall to initial conditions in debris flow areas in China

    Zhou, Feifan


    By studying three heavy rainfall events that were accompanied by debris flows in southwestern China, we find that 24-h accumulated rainfall is most sensitive to the initial temperature. The sensitivities to wind, surface pressure, and specific humidity are generally smaller. Moreover, the upper levels of the atmosphere are identified as the sensitive levels, and the sensitive areas are the areas with heavy rainfall. These results suggest that local temperature perturbations in the upper levels are a signal of short-term heavy rainfall in southwestern China. A validation experiment is carried out to justify the sensitivity results. The possible reasons are discussed and analyzed.

  15. Heavy rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks: the Walkerton example.

    Auld, Heather; MacIver, D; Klaassen, J

    Recent research indicates that excessive rainfall has been a significant contributor to historical waterborne disease outbreaks. The Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, provided an analysis and testimony to the Walkerton Inquiry on the excessive rainfall events, including an assessment of the historical significance and expected return periods of the rainfall amounts. While the onset of the majority of the Walkerton, Ontario, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter outbreak occurred several days after a heavy rainfall on May 12, the accumulated 5-d rainfall amounts from 8-12 May were particularly significant. These 5-d accumulations could, on average, only be expected once every 60 yr or more in Walkerton and once every 100 yr or so in the heaviest rainfall area to the south of Walkerton. The significant link between excess rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks, in conjunction with other multiple risk factors, indicates that meteorological and climatological conditions need to be considered by water managers, public health officials, and private citizens as a significant risk factor for water contamination. A system to identify and project the impacts of such challenging or extreme weather conditions on water supply systems could be developed using a combination of weather/climate monitoring information and weather prediction or quantitative precipitation forecast information. The use of weather monitoring and forecast information or a "wellhead alert system" could alert water system and water supply managers on the potential response of their systems to challenging weather conditions and additional requirements to protect health. Similar approaches have recently been used by beach managers in parts of the United States to predict day-to-day water quality for beach advisories.

  16. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri


    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  17. A rainfall-based warning model for shallow landslides

    Zeng, Yi-Chao; Wang, Ji-Shang; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Yin, Hsiao-Yuan; Lo, Wen-Chun


    According to the statistical data of past rainfall events, the climate has changed in recent decades. Rainfall patterns have presented a more concentrated, high-intensity and long-duration trend in Taiwan. The most representative event is Typhoon Morakot which induced a total of 67 enormous landslides by the extreme amount of rain during August 7 to 10 in 2009 and resulted in the heaviest casualties in southern Taiwan. In addition, the nature of vulnerability such as steep mountains and rushing rivers, fragile geology and loose surface soil results in more severe sediment-relative disasters, in which shallow landslides are widespread hazards in mountainous regions. This research aims to develop and evaluate a model for predicting shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in mountainous area. Considering the feasibility of large-scale application and practical operation, the statistical techniques is adopted to form the landslide model based on abundant historical rainfall data and landslide events. The 16 landslide inventory maps and 15 variation results by comparing satellite images taken before and after the rainfall event were interpreted and delineated since 2004 to 2011. Logit model is utilized for interpreting the relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide events delineated from satellite. Based on the analysis results of logistic regression, the rainfall factors that are highly related to shallow landslide occurrence are selected which are 3 hours rainfall intensity I3 (mm/hr) and the effective cumulative precipitation Rt (mm) including accumulated rainfall at time t and antecedent rainfall. A landslide rainfall triggering index (LRTI) proposed for assessing the occurrence potential of shallow landslides is defined as the product of I3 and Rt. A form of probability of shallow landslide triggered threshold is proposed to offer a measure of the likelihood of landslide occurrence. Two major critical lines which represent the lower and upper

  18. Analysis of spatial autocorrelation patterns of heavy and super-heavy rainfall in Iran

    Rousta, Iman; Doostkamian, Mehdi; Haghighi, Esmaeil; Ghafarian Malamiri, Hamid Reza; Yarahmadi, Parvane


    Rainfall is a highly variable climatic element, and rainfall-related changes occur in spatial and temporal dimensions within a regional climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation changes of Iran's heavy and super-heavy rainfall over the past 40 years. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of 664 meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011 are used. To analyze the changes in rainfall within a decade, geostatistical techniques like spatial autocorrelation analysis of hot spots, based on the Getis-Ord G i statistic, are employed. Furthermore, programming features in MATLAB, Surfer, and GIS are used. The results indicate that the Caspian coast, the northwest and west of the western foothills of the Zagros Mountains of Iran, the inner regions of Iran, and southern parts of Southeast and Northeast Iran, have the highest likelihood of heavy and super-heavy rainfall. The spatial pattern of heavy rainfall shows that, despite its oscillation in different periods, the maximum positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall includes areas of the west, northwest and west coast of the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, a negative spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall is observed in central Iran and parts of the east, particularly in Zabul. Finally, it is found that patterns of super-heavy rainfall are similar to those of heavy rainfall.

  19. A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall- induced landslide


    Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the "landslide probability judgement factor" can be worked out through grading and overlapping "geological condition influencing factor" and "rainfall influencing factor", by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of "two factors" grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide.

  20. Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Entropy and Copula Theories

    Lan Zhang


    Full Text Available Multivariate hydrologic frequency analysis has been widely studied using: (1 commonly known joint distributions or copula functions with the assumption of univariate variables being independently identically distributed (I.I.D. random variables; or (2 directly applying the entropy theory-based framework. However, for the I.I.D. univariate random variable assumption, the univariate variable may be considered as independently distributed, but it may not be identically distributed; and secondly, the commonly applied Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (g is not able to capture the nonlinear dependence structure that usually exists. Thus, this study attempts to combine the copula theory with the entropy theory for bivariate rainfall and runoff analysis. The entropy theory is applied to derive the univariate rainfall and runoff distributions. It permits the incorporation of given or known information, codified in the form of constraints and results in a universal solution of univariate probability distributions. The copula theory is applied to determine the joint rainfall-runoff distribution. Application of the copula theory results in: (i the detection of the nonlinear dependence between the correlated random variables-rainfall and runoff, and (ii capturing the tail dependence for risk analysis through joint return period and conditional return period of rainfall and runoff. The methodology is validated using annual daily maximum rainfall and the corresponding daily runoff (discharge data collected from watersheds near Riesel, Texas (small agricultural experimental watersheds and Cuyahoga River watershed, Ohio.


    Xiaofan LI


    A lag correlation analysis is conducted with a 21-day TOGA COARE cloud-resolving model simulation data to identify the phase relation between surface rainfall and convective available potential energy (CAPE) and associated physical processes. The analysis shows that the maximum negative lag correlations between the model domain mean CAPE and rainfall occurs around lag hour 6. The minimum mean CAPE lags mean and convective rainfall through the vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor convergence, and heat divergence whereas it lags stratiform rainfall via the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions, vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor storage, and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.

  2. Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

    Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun


    Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971–2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of ‑9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7–7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

  3. Lightning and Rainfall Characteristics in Elevated vs. Surface Based Convection in the Midwest that Produce Heavy Rainfall

    Joshua S. Kastman


    Full Text Available There are differences in the character of surface-based and elevated convection, and one type may pose a greater threat to life or property. The lightning and rainfall characteristics of eight elevated and eight surface-based thunderstorm cases that occurred between 2007 and 2010 over the central Continental United States were tested for statistical differences. Only events that produced heavy rain (>50.8 mm·day−1 were investigated. The nonparametric Mann–Whitney test was used to determine if the characteristics of elevated thunderstorm events were significantly different than the surface based events. Observations taken from these cases include: rainfall–lightning ratios (RLR within the heavy rain area, the extent of the heavy rainfall area, cloud-to-ground (CG lightning flashes, CG flashes·h−1, positive CG flashes, positive CG flashes·h−1, percentage of positive CG flashes within the heavy rainfall area, and maximum and mean rainfall amounts within the heavy rain area. Results show that elevated convection cases produced more rainfall, total CG lightning flashes, and positive CG lightning flashes than surface based thunderstorms. More available moisture and storm morphology explain these differences, suggesting elevated convection is a greater lightning and heavy rainfall threat than surface based convection.

  4. Rainfall erosivity in New Zealand

    Klik, Andreas; Haas, Kathrin; Dvorackova, Anna; Fuller, Ian


    Rainfall and its kinetic energy expressed by the rainfall erosivity is the main driver of soil erosion processes by water. The Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Factor (R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation is one oft he most widely used parameters describing rainfall erosivity. This factor includes the cumulative effects of the many moderate-sized storms as well as the effects oft he occasional severe ones: R quantifies the effect of raindrop impact and reflects the amopunt and rate of runoff associated with the rain. New Zealand is geologically young and not comparable with any other country in the world. Inordinately high rainfall and strong prevailing winds are New Zealand's dominant climatic features. Annual rainfall up to 15000 mm, steep slopes, small catchments and earthquakes are the perfect basis for a high rate of natural and accelerated erosion. Due to the multifacted landscape of New Zealand its location as island between the Pacific and the Tasmanian Sea there is a high gradient in precipitation between North and South Island as well as between West and East Coast. The objective of this study was to determine the R-factor for the different climatic regions in New Zealand, in order to create a rainfall erosivity map. We used rainfall data (breakpoint data in 10-min intervals) from 34 gauging stations for the calcuation of the rainfall erosivity. 15 stations were located on the North Island and 19 stations on the South Island. From these stations, a total of 397 station years with 12710 rainstorms were analyzed. The kinetic energy for each rainfall event was calculated based on the equation by Brown and Foster (1987), using the breakpoint precipitation data for each storm. On average, a mean annual precipitation of 1357 mm was obtained from the 15 observed stations on the North Island. Rainfall distribution throughout the year is relatively even with 22-24% of annual rainfall occurring in spring , fall and winter and 31% in summer. On the South Island

  5. Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

    Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.


    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20

  6. Obtaining DDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall Data Using Bivariate Copula and Frequency Analysis

    Sadri, Sara; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    The traditional rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve is a reliable approach for representing the variation of rainfall intensity with duration for a given return period. In reality rainfall variables intensity, depth and duration are dependent and therefore a bivariate analysis using...... copulas can give a more accurate IDF curve. We study IDF curves using a copula in a bivariate frequency analysis of extreme rainfall. To be able to choose the most suitable copula among candidate copulas (i.e., Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank) we demonstrated IDF curves based on variation of depth...... with duration for a given return period and name them DDF (depth-duration-frequency) curves. The copula approach does not assume the rainfall variables are independent or jointly normally distributed. Rainfall series are extracted in three ways: (1) by maximum mean intensity; (2) by depth and duration...

  7. Obtaining DDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall Data Using Bivariate Copula and Frequency Analysis

    Sadri, Sara; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;


    of individual rainfall events; and (3) by storage volume and duration. In each case we used partial duration series (PDS) to extract extreme rainfall variables. The DDF curves derived from each method are presented and compared. This study examines extreme rainfall data from catchment Vedbæ k Renseanlæ g...... with duration for a given return period and name them DDF (depth-duration-frequency) curves. The copula approach does not assume the rainfall variables are independent or jointly normally distributed. Rainfall series are extracted in three ways: (1) by maximum mean intensity; (2) by depth and duration......, situated near Copenhagen in Denmark. For rainfall extracted using method 2, the marginal distribution of depth was found to fit the Generalized Pareto distribution while duration was found to fit the Gamma distribution, using the method of L-moments. The volume was fit with a generalized Pareto...

  8. Maximum Autocorrelation Factorial Kriging

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Pedersen, John L.


    This paper describes maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis, maximum autocorrelation factorial kriging, and its application to irregularly sampled stream sediment geochemical data from South Greenland. Kriged MAF images are compared with kriged images of varimax rotated factors from...

  9. Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey


    Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

  10. A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

    Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra


    The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

  11. Seepage and slope stability modelling of rainfall-induced slope failures in topographic hollows

    Kiran Prasad Acharya


    Full Text Available This study focuses on topographic hollows, their flow direction and flow accumulation characteristics, and highlights discharge of hillslope seepage so as to understand porewater pressure development phenomena in relation with slope failure in topographic hollows. For this purpose, a small catchment in Niihama city of Shikoku Island in western Japan, with a record of seven slope failures triggered by typhoon-caused heavy rainfall on 19–20 October 2004, was selected. After extensive fieldwork and computation of hydro-mechanical parameters in unsaturated and saturated conditions through a series of laboratory experiments, seepage and slope stability modellings of these slope failures were done in GeoStudio environment using the precipitation data of 19–20 October 2004. The results of seepage modelling showed that the porewater pressure was rapid transient in silty sand, and the maximum porewater pressure measured in an area close to the base of topographic hollows was found to be higher with bigger topographic hollows. Furthermore, a threshold relationship between the topographic hollow area and maximum porewater pressure in this study indicates that a topographic hollow of 1000 sq. m area can develop maximum porewater pressure of 1.253 kPa. However, the porewater pressures required to initiate slope instability in the upper part of the topographic hollows is relatively smaller than those in the lower part of the topographic hollows.

  12. Contribution of Monthly and Regional Rainfall to the Strength of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Zheng, Y.; Ali, M.; Bourassa, M. A.


    Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR: June-September) has both temporal and spatial variability causing floods/droughts in different seasons/locations leading to a strong or weak monsoon. Here, we present the contribution of all-India monthly, seasonal and regional rainfall to the ISMR, with special reference to the strong and weak monsoons. For this purpose, rainfall data provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD: for 1901-2013 have been used. The IMD divided the Indian sub-continent into four homogeneous regions of northwest India (NWI), northeast India (NEI), central India (CI), and south peninsula India (SPIN). Rainfall during July-August contributes the most to the total seasonal rainfall, whether it is a strong or weak monsoon. Although the NEI has the maximum area-weighted rainfall, its contribution is the least toward a strong or weak monsoon. The rainfall in the remaining three regions (NWI, CI, and SPIN) controls whether an ISMR is strong or weak. Compared to the monthly rainfall, the regional rainfall dominates the strong or weak rainfall periods.

  13. Rainfall variability modelling in Rwanda

    Nduwayezu, E.; Kanevski, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.


    Support to climate change adaptation is a priority in many International Organisations meetings. But is the international approach for adaptation appropriate with field reality in developing countries? In Rwanda, the main problems will be heavy rain and/or long dry season. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). The spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front » mechanism. The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda disturbs the circulation for many days, damages the houses and, more seriously, causes heavy losses of people. All districts are affected by bad weather (heavy rain) but the costs of such events are the highest in mountains districts. The objective of the current research is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events.


    Serkan ŞENOCAK


    Full Text Available The scope of this study is to develop a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF equation for some return periods at Erzurum rainfall station. The maximum annual rainfall values for 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are statistically analyzed for the period 1956 – 2004 by using some statistical distributions such as the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV, Gumbel, Normal, Two-parameter Lognormal, Three-parameter Lognormal, Gamma, Pearson type III and Log-Pearson type III distributions. ?2 goodness-of-fit test was used to choose the best statistical distribution among all distributions. IDF equation constants and coefficients of correlation (R for each emprical functions are calculated using nonlinear estimation method for each return periods (T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100 years. The most suitable IDF equation is observed that ( B max i (t = A/ t + C , except for T=100 years, because of the highest coefficients of correlation.

  15. Rainfall partitioning by desert shrubs in arid regions


    We measured the rainfall partitioning among throughfall, stemflow, and interception by desert shrubs in an arid region of China, and analyzed the influence of rainfall and canopy characteristics on this partitioning and its ecohydrological effects. The percent-ages of total rainfall accounted for by throughfall, stemflow, and interception ranged from 78.85±2.78 percent to 86.29±5.07 per-cent, from 5.50±3.73 percent to 8.47±4.19 percent, and from 7.54±2.36 percent to 15.95±4.70 percent, respectively, for the four shrubs in our study (Haloxylon ammodendron, Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix ramosissima, and Nitraria sphaerocarpa). Rain-fall was significantly linearly correlated with throughfall, stemflow, and interception (P < 0.0001). The throughfall, stemflow, and interception percentages were logarithmically related to total rainfall (P < 0.01), but were quadratically related to the maximum 1-hour rainfall intensity (P < 0.01). The throughfall and stemflow percentages increased significantly with increasing values of the rainfall characteristics, whereas the interception percentage generally decreased (except for average wind speed, air temperature, and canopy evaporation). Regression analysis suggested that the stemflow percentage increased significantly with increasing crown length, number of branches, and branch angle (R2 = 0.92, P < 0.001). The interception percentage increased significantly with increasing LAI (leaf area index) and crown length, but decreased with increasing branch angle (R2 = 0.96, P < 0.001). The mean funnelling percentages for the four shrubs ranged from 30.27±4.86 percent to 164.37±6.41 percent of the bulk precipitation. Much of the precipitation was funnelled toward the basal area of the stem, confirming that shrub stemflow conserved in deep soil layers may be an available moisture source to support plant survival and growth under arid conditions.

  16. Initialization with diabatic heating from satellite-derived rainfall

    Ma, Leiming; Chan, Johnny; Davidson, Noel E.; Turk, Joe


    In this paper, a new technique is proposed to improve initialization of a tropical cyclone (TC) prediction model using diabatic heating profiles estimated from a combination of both infrared satellite cloud imagery and satellite-derived rainfall. The method is termed Rainfall-defined Diabatic Heating, RDH. To examine the RDH performance, initialization and forecast experiments are made with the Australia Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) Tropical Cyclone — Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS) for the case of TC Chris, which made landfall on the west coast of Australia during 3-6 Feb 2002. RDH is performed in three steps: 1) based on previous observational and numerical studies, reference diabatic heating profiles are firstly classified into three kinds: convective, stratiform or composite types; 2) NRL (Naval Research Laboratory) 3-hourly gridded satellite rainfall estimates are categorized as one of the three types according to the rain rate; 3) within a nudging phase of 24 h, the model-generated heating at each grid point during the integration is replaced by the reference heating profiles on the basis of the satellite-observed cloud top temperature and rainfall type. The results of sensitivity experiments show that RDH has a positive impact on the model initialization of TC Chris. The heating profiles generated by the model within the observed rainfall area show agreement with that of reference heating. That is, maximum heating is located in the lower troposphere for convective rainfall, and in the upper troposphere for stratiform rainfall. In response to the replaced heating and its impact on the TC structure, the model initial condition and forecasts of the track and intensity are improved.

  17. Evolution of the rainfall regime in the United Arab Emirates

    Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Charron, C.; Niranjan Kumar, K.; Marpu, P. R.; Ghedira, H.; Molini, A.; Khayal, I.


    Arid and semiarid climates occupy more than 1/4 of the land surface of our planet, and are characterized by a strongly intermittent hydrologic regime, posing a major threat to the development of these regions. Despite this fact, a limited number of studies have focused on the climatic dynamics of precipitation in desert environments, assuming the rainfall input - and their temporal trends - as marginal compared with the evaporative component. Rainfall series at four meteorological stations in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were analyzed for assessment of trends and detection of change points. The considered variables were total annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall; annual, seasonal and monthly maximum rainfall; and the number of rainy days per year, season and month. For the assessment of the significance of trends, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s test were applied. Results show that most annual series present decreasing trends, although not statistically significant at the 5% level. The analysis of monthly time series reveals strong decreasing trends mainly occurring in February and March. Many trends for these months are statistically significant at the 10% level and some trends are significant at the 5% level. These two months account for most of the total annual rainfall in the UAE. To investigate the presence of sudden changes in rainfall time-series, the cumulative sum method and a Bayesian multiple change point detection procedure were applied to annual rainfall series. Results indicate that a change point happened around 1999 at all stations. Analyses were performed to evaluate the evolution of characteristics before and after 1999. Student’s t-test and Levene’s test were applied to determine if a change in the mean and/or in the variance occurred at the change point. Results show that a decreasing shift in the mean has occurred in the total annual rainfall and the number of rainy days at all four stations, and that the variance has

  18. Modelling Ecuador's rainfall distribution according to geographical characteristics.

    Tobar, Vladimiro; Wyseure, Guido


    It is known that rainfall is affected by terrain characteristics and some studies had focussed on its distribution over complex terrain. Ecuador's temporal and spatial rainfall distribution is affected by its location on the ITCZ, the marine currents in the Pacific, the Amazon rainforest, and the Andes mountain range. Although all these factors are important, we think that the latter one may hold a key for modelling spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The study considered 30 years of monthly data from 319 rainfall stations having at least 10 years of data available. The relatively low density of stations and their location in accessible sites near to main roads or rivers, leave large and important areas ungauged, making it not appropriate to rely on traditional interpolation techniques to estimate regional rainfall for water balance. The aim of this research was to come up with a useful model for seasonal rainfall distribution in Ecuador based on geographical characteristics to allow its spatial generalization. The target for modelling was the seasonal rainfall, characterized by nine percentiles for each one of the 12 months of the year that results in 108 response variables, later on reduced to four principal components comprising 94% of the total variability. Predictor variables for the model were: geographic coordinates, elevation, main wind effects from the Amazon and Coast, Valley and Hill indexes, and average and maximum elevation above the selected rainfall station to the east and to the west, for each one of 18 directions (50-135°, by 5°) adding up to 79 predictors. A multiple linear regression model by the Elastic-net algorithm with cross-validation was applied for each one of the PC as response to select the most important ones from the 79 predictor variables. The Elastic-net algorithm deals well with collinearity problems, while allowing variable selection in a blended approach between the Ridge and Lasso regression. The model fitting

  19. Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Jefferson Schick


    Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.


    LIU Shi-he; TAI Wei; FAN Min; LUO Qiu-shi


    This article studies the atomization rainfall and the generated flow on a slope by numerical simulations.The atomization rainfall is simulated by a unified model for splash droplets and a suspended mist,and the distribution of the diameter of splash rain drops is analyzed.The slope runoff generated by the atomization rainfall is simulated by a depth-averaged 2-D model,and the localization of the rainfall intensity in space is specially considered.The simulation results show that:(1) the median rain size of the atomization rainfall increases in the longitudinal direction at first,then monotonously decreases,and the maximum value is taken at the longitudinal position not in consistent with the position where the maximum rain intensity is taken.In the lateral direction the median rain size monotonously decreases,(2) since the atomization rainfall is distributed in a strongly localized area,it takes a longer time for its runoff yield to reach a steady state than that in the natural rainfall,the variation ranges of the water depth and the velocity in the longitudinal and lateral directions are larger than those in the natural rainfall.

  1. Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan

    J. C. Chen


    Full Text Available This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N was also investigated via image analysis and/or field investigation. The relationship between N and RI was analysed. Higher RI of a rainfall event would trigger a larger number of debris flows. This paper also discusses the effects of the Chi-Chi earthquake (CCE on this relationship and on debris flow initiation. The results showed that the critical RI for debris flow initiation had significant variations and was significantly lower in the years immediately following the CCE of 1999, but appeared to revert to the pre-earthquake condition about five years later. Under the same extreme rainfall event of RI = 365 cm2 h−1, the value of N in the CCE-affected period could be six times larger than that in the non-CCE-affected periods.

  2. Stochastic generation of daily rainfall events based on rainfall pattern classification and Copula-based rainfall characteristics simulation

    Xu, Y. P.; Gao, C.


    To deal with the problem of having no or insufficiently long rainfall record, developing a stochastic rainfall model is very essential. This study first proposed a stochastic model of daily rainfall events based on classification and simulation of different rainfall patterns, and copula-based joint simulation of rainfall characteristics. Compared with current stochastic rainfall models, this new model not only keeps the dependence structure of rainfall characteristics by using copula functions, but also takes various rainfall patterns that may cause different hydrological responses to watershed into consideration. In order to determine the appropriate number of representative rainfall patterns in an objective way, we also introduced clustering validation measures to the stochastic model. Afterwards, the developed stochastic rainfall model is applied to 39 gauged meteorological stations in Zhejiang province, East China, and is then extended to ungauged stations for validation by applying the self-organizing map (SOM) method. The final results show that the 39 stations can be classified into seven regions that further fall into three categories based on rainfall generation mechanisms, i.e., plum-rain control region, typhoon-rain control region and typhoon-plum-rain compatible region. Rainfall patterns of each station can be classified into five or six types based on clustering validation measures. This study shows that the stochastic rainfall model is robust and can be applied to both gauged and ungauged stations for generating long rainfall record.

  3. [Output characteristics of rainfall runoff phosphorus pollution from a typical small watershed in Yimeng mountainous area].

    Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Zhen-wei; Liu, Qian-jin; Jing, Guang-hua


    Relationships between phosphorus pollutant concentrations and precipitation-runoff were analyzed by monitoring pollutant losses at outlets of the Menglianggu watershed in 2010. A typical small watershed was selected to examine the runoff and quality parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), particle phosphorus (PP), dissolve phosphorus (DP) and dissolve inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in rainfall-runoff of 10 rainfall events. Precipitation was above 2 mm for all the 10 rainfall events. The results showed that the peak of phosphorus concentrations occurred before the peak of water flows, whereas change processes of the phosphorus fluxes were consistent with that of the water flows and the phosphorus flux also have a strong linear relationship with the water flows. The minimums of the phosphorus concentrations in every 10 natural rainfall events have small differences with each other, but the maximum and EMCs of the phosphorus concentrations have significant differences with each rainfall event. This was mainly influenced by the precipitation, maximum rainfall intensity and mean rainfall intensity (EMCs) and was less influenced by rainfall duration. DP and TP were mainly composed of DIP and PP, respectively. There were no significant correlations between DIP/DP dynamic changes and rainfall characteristics, whereas significant correlations between PP/TP dynamic changes and maximum rainfall intensity were detected. The production of DIP, DP, AND TP were mainly influenced by the direct runoff (DR) and base flow (BF). The EMCs of DIP, DP, TP and the variations of DIP/DP were all found to have significant polynomial relationships with DR/TR., but the dynamic changes of PP/ TP and the EMCS of PP were less influenced by the DR/TR.

  4. 6-hour maximum rain in Friuli Venezia Giulia: Climatology and ECMWF-based forecasts

    Manzato, Agostino; Cicogna, Andrea; Pucillo, Arturo


    Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) is a region in Italy with very complex orography, having an annual rainfall amount that varies from about 900 mm on the coast to more than 3200 mm in the Julian Prealps. A network of 104 raingauges placed around the FVG territory was used to extract the absolute maximum rain accumulated every 6 h, during the period 16 February 2006 to 15 February 2015 (9 years). Interannual, annual, weekly and daily cycles of three classes of rain intensities are analyzed, finding that significant rainfalls (MaxRain > 5 mm) are more frequent in the May to mid-August period, while the heaviest rainfalls (> 40 mm) are more probable between May and the beginning of December, with a peak at the very beginning of November. ECMWF 6-h forecasts at 18 gridpoints (spaced at 0.25°) above the FVG region are studied for the same period, to find the maximum 6-h rain forecasted by the ECMWF model from + 6 to + 48 h and correlate it with the observed maximum rain of all the 104 raingauges. It is found that the correlation coefficient R is higher at 0000-0600 UTC and minimum at 1800-0000 UTC, while the BIAS is always negative (underestimation), varying between - 3.5 and - 6.9 mm. Looking at more homogeneous subareas, ECMWF has a much worse BIAS and RMSE for the Prealps zone, while its correlation coefficient is lower for the coastal and plains zones. For comparison, a similar exercise is repeated using a LAM model (ALADIN-ARSO), finding better BIAS and RMSE, but a lower skill for the mean correlation coefficient. Hence, a linear statistical method (multiregression with exhaustive input selection) for forecasting the maximum 6-h rain using as candidate predictors the direct model output (absolute values, anomalies, standardized values, plus mean, max and SD in time and space) is developed independently for four different sub-regions and two periods of the year starting from the ECMWF forecast. It is found that the strong BIAS in the Prealpine area can easily be removed

  5. Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overflow performance

    Szeląg Bartosz


    Full Text Available Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overfl ow performance. This research study analyzes the effect of the rainfall characteristics (total and maximum 10-, 15- and 30-minute rainfall depth, its duration, the dry weather period on the performance of the emergency overflow weir located at the inflow to an existing treatment plant. The analyses used the numerical calculation results of the inflow hydrographs performed in the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model program on the basis of six-year-long rainfall measurement sequence. The obtained simulation results for the analysed catchment allowed for the performance of statistical analyses, which demonstrated that the volume of stormwater discharge, the maximum instantaneous flow and the share of stormwater volume discharged through the emergency overflow weir in relation to the total volume of the inflow hydrograph from the catchment are affected by the maximum 30-minute rainfall depth, whereas the discharge duration is affected by the depth of the catchment rainfall layer. Taking into account the results of statistical and hydraulic calculations it can be concluded that in the case of the analysed catchment the performance of the emergency overflow weir is affected to the greatest extent by the rainfall intensity distribution.

  6. Multivariate Analysis of Joint Probability of Different Rainfall Frequencies Based on Copulas

    Yang Wang


    Full Text Available The performance evaluation of a city’s flood control system is essentially based on accurate storm designs, where a particular challenge is the development of the joint distributions of dependent rainfall variables. When it comes to the research design for consecutive rainfall, the analytical investigation is only focused on the maximum of consecutive rainfalls, and it does not consider the probabilistic relations between the first day of rainfall and the overall rainfall included in consecutive rainfall events. In this study, the copula method is used to separate the dependence structure of multi-day rainfall from its marginal distribution and analyse the different impacts of the dependence structure and marginal distribution on system performance. Three one-parameter Archimedean copulas, including the Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank families, are fitted and compared for different combinations of marginal distributions that cannot be rejected by statistical tests. The fitted copulas are used to generate rainfall events for a system performance analysis, including the conditional probability and design values for different return periods. The results obtained in this study highlight the importance of taking into account the dependence structure of one-day and multi-day rainfall in the context of storm design evaluations and reveal the different impacts of the dependence structure and the marginal distributions on the probability.

  7. A Case Study of Bivariate Rainfall Frequency Analysis Using Copula in South Korea

    Joo, K.; Shin, J.; Kim, W.; Heo, J.


    For a given rainfall event, it can be characterized into some properties such as rainfall depth (amount), duration, and intensity. By considering these factors simultaneously, the actual phenomenon of rainfall event can be explained better than univariate model. Using bivariate model, rainfall quantiles can be obtained for a given return period without any limitations of specific rainfall duration. For bivariate(depth and duration) frequency analysis, copula model was used in this study. Recently, copula model has been studied widely for hydrological field. And it is more flexible for marginal distribution than other conventional bivariate models. In this study, five weather stations are applied for frequency analysis from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) which are Seoul, Chuncheon, Gangneung, Wonju, and Chungju stations. These sites have 38 ~ 50 years of hourly precipitation data. Inter-event time definition is used for identification of rainfall events. And three copula models (Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank, and Joe) are applied in this study. Maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameter of copula (θ). The normal, generalized extreme value, Gumbel, 3-parameter gamma, and generalized logistic distributions are examined for marginal distribution. As a result, rainfall quantiles can be obtained for any rainfall durations for a given return period by calculating conditional probability. In addition, rainfall quantiles from copula models are compared to those from univariate model.

  8. Daily rainfall variability over northeastern Argentina in the La Plata River basin.

    García, Norberto O; Pedraza, Raúl A


    We did a brief description of the climatic behavior and after this we analyzed the temporal variation in the total number of days a year with rainfall and the number of days a year with rainfall above the 100 mm threshold at the rain gauging stations in northeastern Argentina south of the La Plata River basin. The results show an increase both in the frequency of daily rainfall, especially during the winter season, and the frequency of days with heavy rainfall starting in the early 1970s. The increase in frequency of occurrence is more significant in the case of heavy rainfall. The annual maximum rainfall was calculated for periods of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 consecutive days at regional rain gauging stations for the respective historical periods, and the rain intensity-duration-return period curves (IDT) were determined on a frequency analysis. The IDT curves were compared with rainfall intensity-duration data of critical storms occurring in the last decades. We noticed that the rain intensities of critical storms (mostly convective) widely exceeded the intensities given by the 100-year IDT curves, particularly for short durations. The increase in both the frequency of heavy rainfall occurrence and rain intensity from the 1970s onward shows an increase in frequency and intensity of the meso-scale convective systems in the region resulting from climatic change. These systems tend to produce rainfall of very high intensity that is spatially concentrated and which generally produces significant floods in the local rivers.

  9. Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows. Results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees)

    Abancó, Clàudia; Hürlimann, Marcel; Moya, José; Berenguer, Marc


    , and mean intensity, Imean, of the rainfall event, and (ii) using floating durations, D, and intensities, Ifl, based on the maximum values over floating periods of different duration. The resulting thresholds are considerably different (Imean = 6.20 Dtot-0.36 and Ifl_90% = 5.49 D-0.75, respectively) showing a strong dependence on the applied methodology. On the other hand, the definition of the thresholds is affected by several types of uncertainties. Data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that the precipitation recorded by the nearby rain gauges can introduce major uncertainties, especially for convective summer storms. Thus, incorporating radar rainfall can significantly improve the accuracy of the measured triggering rainfall. Finally, thresholds were also derived according to three different criteria for the definition of the duration of the triggering rainfall: (i) the duration until the peak intensity, (ii) the duration until the end of the rainfall; and, (iii) the duration until the trigger of the torrential flow. An important contribution of this work is the assessment of the threshold relationships obtained using the third definition of duration. Moreover, important differences are observed in the obtained thresholds, showing that ID relationships are significantly dependent on the applied methodology.

  10. A probabilistic approach for assessing landslide-triggering event rainfall in Papua New Guinea, using TRMM satellite precipitation estimates

    Robbins, J. C.


    Large and numerous landslides can result in widespread impacts which are felt particularly strongly in the largely subsistence-orientated communities residing in the most landslide-prone areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Understanding the characteristics of rainfall preceding these landslide events is essential for the development of appropriate early warning systems and forecasting models. Relationships between rainfall and landslides are frequently complex and uncertainties tend to be amplified by inconsistent and incomplete landslide catalogues and sparse rainfall data availability. To address some of these uncertainties a modified Bayesian technique has been used, in conjunction with the multiple time frames method, to produce thresholds of landslide probability associated with rainfall events of specific magnitude and duration. Satellite-derived precipitation estimates have been used to derive representative rainfall accumulations and intensities over a range of different rainfall durations (5, 10, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75 and 90 days) for rainfall events which resulted in landslides and those which did not result in landslides. Of the two parameter combinations (accumulation-duration and intensity-duration) analysed, rainfall accumulation and duration provide the best scope for identifying probabilistic thresholds for use in landslide warning and forecasting in PNG. Analysis of historical events and rainfall characteristics indicates that high accumulation (>250 mm), shorter duration (75 days), high accumulation (>1200 mm) rainfall events are more likely to lead to moderate- to high-impact landslides. This analysis has produced the first proxy probability thresholds for landslides in PNG and their application within an early warning framework has been discussed.

  11. Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields

    Gupta, V. K.

    The Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields, sponsored by AGU, was the first of its kind; it was devoted to strengthening scientific interaction between the North American and Latin American geophysics communities. It was hosted by Universidad Simon Bolivar and Instituto Internacional de Estudios Avanzados, in Caracas, Venezuela, during March 24-27, 1986. A total of 36 scientists from Latin America, the United States, Canada, and Europe participated. The conference, which was convened by I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (Universidad Simon Bolivar) and V. K. Gupta (University of Mississippi, University), brought together hydrologists, meteorologists, and mathematicians/statisticians in the name of enhancing an interdisciplinary focus on rainfall research.

  12. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.


    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  13. Variability in rainfall at monitoring stations and derivation of a long-term rainfall intensity record in the Grand Canyon Region, Arizona, USA

    Caster, Joshua; Sankey, Joel B.


    In this study, we examine rainfall datasets of varying temporal length, resolution, and spatial distribution to characterize rainfall depth, intensity, and seasonality for monitoring stations along the Colorado River within Marble and Grand Canyons. We identify maximum separation distances between stations at which rainfall measurements might be most useful for inferring rainfall characteristics at other locations. We demonstrate a method for applying relations between daily rainfall depth and intensity, from short-term high-resolution data to lower-resolution longer-term data, to synthesize a long-term record of daily rainfall intensity from 1950–2012. We consider the implications of our spatio-temporal characterization of rainfall for understanding local landscape change in sedimentary deposits and archaeological sites, and for better characterizing past and present rainfall and its potential role in overland flow erosion within the canyons. We find that rainfall measured at stations within the river corridor is spatially correlated at separation distances of tens of kilometers, and is not correlated at the large elevation differences that separate stations along the Colorado River from stations above the canyon rim. These results provide guidance for reasonable separation distances at which rainfall measurements at stations within the Grand Canyon region might be used to infer rainfall at other nearby locations along the river. Like other rugged landscapes, spatial variability between rainfall measured at monitoring stations appears to be influenced by canyon and rim physiography and elevation, with preliminary results suggesting the highest elevation landform in the region, the Kaibab Plateau, may function as an important orographic influence. Stations at specific locations within the canyons and along the river, such as in southern (lower) Marble Canyon and eastern (upper) Grand Canyon, appear to have strong potential to receive high-intensity rainfall that

  14. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature and its relationship over India

    Subash, N.; Sikka, A. K.


    This study investigated the trends in rainfall and temperature and the possibility of any rational relationship between the trends over the homogeneous regions over India. Annual maximum temperature shows an increasing trend in all the homogeneous temperature regions and corresponding annual rainfall also follow the same pattern in all the regions, except North East. As far as monthly analysis is concerned, no definite pattern has been observed between trends in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, except during October. Increasing trends of maximum and minimum temperature during October accelerate the water vapor demand and most of the lakes, rivers, ponds and other water bodies with no limitation of water availability during this time fulfills the water vapor demand and shows an increasing trend of rainfall activity. This study shows there exists no direct relationship between increasing rainfall and increasing maximum temperature when monthly or seasonal pattern is concerned over meteorological subdivisions of India, however we can make a conclusion that the relation between the trends of rainfall and temperature have large scale spatial and temporal dependence.

  15. Effects of rainfall patterns and land cover on the subsurface flow generation of sloping Ferralsols in southern China.

    Duan, Jian; Yang, Jie; Tang, Chongjun; Chen, Lihua; Liu, Yaojun; Wang, Lingyun


    Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land) in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface flows associated


    Guellouh SAMI


    Full Text Available Statistical estimation of rainfall associated with extreme events is of major interest for hydrologists in terms of risk prevention. Comprehending the spatial distribution of extreme rainfalls that cover the entire catchment area, the impluvium, of Batna, requires as a first step a frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall time series with the application of empirical distributions, namely the GEV distribution, the Gumbel distribution and the log-normal distribution. This has allowed us to estimate the quantiles of extreme rainfall with return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years for ten rainfall stations. Subsequently, this has allowed us to map the quantiles matching the centennial return period using three types of interpolations.

  17. Maximum Autocorrelation Factorial Kriging

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Pedersen, John L.; Steenfelt, Agnete


    This paper describes maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis, maximum autocorrelation factorial kriging, and its application to irregularly sampled stream sediment geochemical data from South Greenland. Kriged MAF images are compared with kriged images of varimax rotated factors from an ordinary non-spatial factor analysis, and they are interpreted in a geological context. It is demonstrated that MAF analysis contrary to ordinary non-spatial factor analysis gives an objective discrimina...

  18. Where do forests influence rainfall?

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line


    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  19. The impact of drought on leaf physiology of Quercus suber L. trees: comparison of an extreme drought event with chronic rainfall reduction.

    Grant, Olga M; Tronina, Lukasz; Ramalho, José Cochicho; Kurz Besson, Cathy; Lobo-do-Vale, Raquel; Santos Pereira, João; Jones, Hamlyn G; Chaves, M Manuela


    Understanding the responses of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) to actual and predicted summer conditions is essential to determine the future sustainability of cork oak woodlands in Iberia. Thermal imaging may provide a rapid method for monitoring the extent of stress. The ecophysiology of cork trees was studied over three years. Three treatments were applied by means of rainfall capture and irrigation, with plots receiving 120%, 100%, or 80% of natural precipitation. Despite stomatal closure, detected using both thermal imaging and porometry, leaf water potential fell during the summer, most drastically during the third year of accumulative stress. The quantum efficiency (ΦPSII) and the maximum efficiency Fv' /FM' of photosystem II also fell more intensely over the third summer, while non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) increased. The reduced precipitation treatment sporadically further reduced leaf water potential, stomatal conductance (gs), IG (an index of gs derived from thermal imaging), ΦPSII, and Fv' /FM', and increased leaf temperature and NPQ. It is concluded that these are very resilient trees since they were only severely affected in the third year of severe drought (the third year registering 45% less rainfall than average), and removing 20% of rainfall had a limited impact..

  20. Optimization of rainfall thresholds for a flood warning system to Taiwan urban areas during storm events

    Liao, Hao-Yu; Pan, Tsung-Yi; Su, Ming-Daw; Hsieh, Ming-Chang; Tan, Yih-Chi


    Flood is one of the most damage disaster that always happen around the world. Because of the extreme weather change, the flood disaster damage becomes higher than before. In recent years, Taiwan suffered from flood damage frequently by excessive rainfall induced by extreme weather, like typhoons. Therefore, it is necessary to build an effective flood warning system to reduce the flood damage. The operational flood warning system in Taiwan is based on the rainfall thresholds. When cumulative rainfall over the rainfall thresholds, the flood warning system would alert the local government where region would happen flood disaster. According to the flood warning system alert, the governments have more time to prepare how to face the flood disaster before happens. Although Taiwanese government has a preliminary flood warning system, the system has still lack of theoretical background. For this reason, the alert accuracy of the system is limited. Thus it is important to develop the effective rainfall thresholds that could predict flood disaster successfully. The research aims to improve the accuracy of the system through statistical methods. When the accumulated rainfall reaches the alert value, the warning message would be announced early to government for dealing with flooding damage which would happen. According to extreme events, the data driven and statistical methods are adopted to calculate the optimum rainfall thresholds. The results of this study could be applied to enhance rainfall thresholds forecasting accuracy, and could reduce the risk of floods.

  1. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)


    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  2. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    Moody, John A.


    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  3. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    Militino, A. F.


    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  4. Observation of the seasonal evolution of DO,chlorophyll a maximum phenomena and nutrient accumulating in the southern Huanghai (Yellow) Sea Cold Water Mass area%南黄海冷水团海域溶解氧和叶绿素最大现象值及营养盐累积的季节演变

    韦钦胜; 傅明珠; 李艳; 王保栋; 于志刚


    Based on the data obtained in four seasonal surveys during 2006 -2007 in the southern Huanghai (Yellow) Sea Cold Water Mass area ,the seasonal evolution of dissolved oxygen (DO) ,chlorophyll a(Chl a)maxi-mum phenomena and nutrient accumulating process was analyzed .The result showed that :(1)From spring to au-tumn ,the depth of DO and Chl a maximum layer had the trend of deepening first and then shallowing ,the scope of DO and Chl a maximum layer increased firstly and then decreased ,the depth and scope of DO and Chl a maximum layer were the largest in summer ;the DO and Chl a maximum phenomena disappeared in winter .(2)In DO maxi-mum layer in the deep waters of the cold water mass in summer ,DO concentration in summer was higher than in spring ,while in DO maximum layer in the boundary area of the cold water mass in summer ,DO concentration in summer was lower than in spring .(3)From spring to autumn ,Chl a concentration in Chl a maximum layer had the trend of decreasing firstly and then increasing ,and it was the lowest in summer ;in Chl a maximum layer located in the frontal region of the cold water mass in summer ,Chl a concentration in summer was the largest all the year round ,and was much higher than in deep waters .(4)The nutrient storage in the bottom cold water mass area of the southern Huanghai Sea had spatial heterogeneity ,generally ,there was a high -concentration core of nutrients in the deep waters and the boundary region of the cold water mass area respectively ,the one situating in the deep water had the fixed position on the whole all the year round ,while the one located in the boundary region of the cold wa-ter mass moved westward from spring to summer ,and then moved eastward again when autumn was coming . (5)Hydrological factors and bio-chemical effect played an important role in regulating the seasonal evolution of the DO and Chl a maximum phenomena as well the nutrient storage .%  基于2006-2007年在南黄海冷水团海域开展的4

  5. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    Buishand, T.A.


    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  6. Using qflux to constrain modeled Congo Basin rainfall in the CMIP5 ensemble

    Creese, A.; Washington, R.


    Coupled models are the tools by which we diagnose and project future climate, yet in certain regions they are critically underevaluated. The Congo Basin is one such region which has received limited scientific attention, due to the severe scarcity of observational data. There is a large difference in the climatology of rainfall in global coupled climate models over the basin. This study attempts to address this research gap by evaluating modeled rainfall magnitude and distribution amongst global coupled models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Mean monthly rainfall between models varies by up to a factor of 5 in some months, and models disagree on the location of maximum rainfall. The ensemble mean, which is usually considered a "best estimate" of coupled model output, does not agree with any single model, and as such is unlikely to present a possible rainfall state. Moisture flux (qflux) convergence (which is assumed to be better constrained than parameterized rainfall) is found to have a strong relationship with rainfall; strongest correlations occur at 700 hPa in March-May (r = 0.70) and 850 hPa in June-August, September-November, and December-February (r = 0.66, r = 0.71, and r = 0.81). In the absence of observations, this relationship could be used to constrain the wide spectrum of modeled rainfall and give a better understanding of Congo rainfall climatology. Analysis of moisture transport pathways indicates that modeled rainfall is sensitive to the amount of moisture entering the basin. A targeted observation campaign at key Congo Basin boundaries could therefore help to constrain model rainfall.

  7. On the sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic modelling to rainfall spatial and temporal resolution

    G. Bruni


    Full Text Available Cities are increasingly vulnerable to floods generated by intense rainfall, because of their high degree of imperviousness, implementation of infrastructures, and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change. Accurate information of convective storm characteristics at high spatial and temporal resolution is a crucial input for urban hydrological models to be able to simulate fast runoff processes and enhance flood prediction. In this paper, a detailed study of the sensitivity of urban hydrological response to high resolution radar rainfall was conducted. Rainfall rates derived from X-band dual polarimetric weather radar for four rainstorms were used as input into a detailed hydrodynamic sewer model for an urban catchment in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Dimensionless parameters were derived to compare results between different storm conditions and to describe the effect of rainfall spatial resolution in relation to storm and hydrodynamic model properties: rainfall sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. storm size, catchment sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. catchment size, runoff and sewer sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. runoff and sewer model resolution respectively. Results show catchment smearing effect for rainfall resolution approaching half the catchment size, i.e. for catchments sampling numbers greater than 0.5 averaged rainfall volumes decrease about 20%. Moreover, deviations in maximum water depths, form 10 to 30% depending on the storm, occur for rainfall resolution close to storm size, describing storm smearing effect due to rainfall coarsening. Model results also show the sensitivity of modelled runoff peaks and maximum water depths to the resolution of the runoff areas and sewer density respectively. Sensitivity to temporal resolution of rainfall input seems low compared to spatial resolution, for the storms analysed in this study. Findings are in agreement with previous studies on natural catchments

  8. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum


    ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

  9. Modelling rainfall amounts using mixed-gamma model for Kuantan district

    Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Moslim, Nor Hafizah


    An efficient design of flood mitigation and construction of crop growth models depend upon good understanding of the rainfall process and characteristics. Gamma distribution is usually used to model nonzero rainfall amounts. In this study, the mixed-gamma model is applied to accommodate both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts. The mixed-gamma model presented is for the independent case. The formulae of mean and variance are derived for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables, respectively. Firstly, the gamma distribution is used to model the nonzero rainfall amounts and the parameters of the distribution (shape and scale) are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Then, the mixed-gamma model is defined for both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts simultaneously. The formulae of mean and variance for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables derived are tested using the monthly rainfall amounts from rainfall stations within Kuantan district in Pahang Malaysia. Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, the results demonstrate that the descriptive statistics of the observed sum of rainfall amounts is not significantly different at 5% significance level from the generated sum of independent mixed-gamma variables. The methodology and formulae demonstrated can be applied to find the sum of more than three independent mixed-gamma variables.

  10. The evaluation of rainfall influence on combined sewer overflows characteristics: the Berlin case study.

    Sandoval, S; Torres, A; Pawlowsky-Reusing, E; Riechel, M; Caradot, N


    The present study aims to explore the relationship between rainfall variables and water quality/quantity characteristics of combined sewer overflows (CSOs), by the use of multivariate statistical methods and online measurements at a principal CSO outlet in Berlin (Germany). Canonical correlation results showed that the maximum and average rainfall intensities are the most influential variables to describe CSO water quantity and pollutant loads whereas the duration of the rainfall event and the rain depth seem to be the most influential variables to describe CSO pollutant concentrations. The analysis of partial least squares (PLS) regression models confirms the findings of the canonical correlation and highlights three main influences of rainfall on CSO characteristics: (i) CSO water quantity characteristics are mainly influenced by the maximal rainfall intensities, (ii) CSO pollutant concentrations were found to be mostly associated with duration of the rainfall and (iii) pollutant loads seemed to be principally influenced by dry weather duration before the rainfall event. The prediction quality of PLS models is rather low (R² < 0.6) but results can be useful to explore qualitatively the influence of rainfall on CSO characteristics.

  11. Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

    K. Khomsi


    Full Text Available In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North, during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

  12. Maximum likely scale estimation

    Loog, Marco; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Markussen, Bo


    A maximum likelihood local scale estimation principle is presented. An actual implementation of the estimation principle uses second order moments of multiple measurements at a fixed location in the image. These measurements consist of Gaussian derivatives possibly taken at several scales and/or ...

  13. Variable rainfall intensity and tillage effects on runoff, sediment, and carbon losses from a loamy sand under simulated rainfall.

    Truman, C C; Strickland, T C; Potter, T L; Franklin, D H; Bosch, D D; Bednarz, C W


    The low-carbon, intensively cropped Coastal Plain soils of Georgia are susceptible to runoff, soil loss, and drought. Reduced tillage systems offer the best management tool for sustained row crop production. Understanding runoff, sediment, and chemical losses from conventional and reduced tillage systems is expected to improve if the effect of a variable rainfall intensity storm was quantified. Our objective was to quantify and compare effects of a constant (Ic) intensity pattern and a more realistic, observed, variable (Iv) rainfall intensity pattern on runoff (R), sediment (E), and carbon losses (C) from a Tifton loamy sand cropped to conventional-till (CT) and strip-till (ST) cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Four treatments were evaluated: CT-Ic, CT-Iv, ST-Ic, and ST-Iv, each replicated three times. Field plots (n=12), each 2 by 3 m, were established on each treatment. Each 6-m2 field plot received simulated rainfall at a constant (57 mm h(-1)) or variable rainfall intensity pattern for 70 min (12-run ave.=1402 mL; CV=3%). The Iv pattern represented the most frequent occurring intensity pattern for spring storms in the region. Compared with CT, ST decreased R by 2.5-fold, E by 3.5-fold, and C by 7-fold. Maximum runoff values for Iv events were 1.6-fold higher than those for Ic events and occurred 38 min earlier. Values for Etot and Ctot for Iv events were 19-36% and 1.5-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Values for Emax and Cmax for Iv events were 3-fold and 4-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Carbon enrichment ratios (CER) were or=1.0 for CT plots (except for first 20 min). Maximum CER for CT-Ic, CT-Iv, ST-Ic, and ST-Iv were 2.0, 2.2, 1.0, and 1.2, respectively. Transport of sediment, carbon, and agrichemicals would be better understood if variable rainfall intensity patterns derived from natural rainfall were used in rainfall simulations to evaluate their fate and transport from CT and ST systems.

  14. Numerical simulation of rainfall with assimilation of conventional and GPS observations over north of Iran

    Mohammad Ali Sharifi


    Full Text Available In this work, the effect of assimilation of synoptic, radiosonde and ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor (PWV data has been investigated on the short-term prediction of precipitation, vertical relative humidity and PWV fields over north of Iran. We selected two rainfall events (i.e. February 1, 2014, and September 17, 2014 caused by synoptic systems affecting the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea. These systems are often associated with a shallow and cold high pressure located over Russia that extends towards the southern Caspian Sea. The three dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system of the weather research and forecasting (WRF model is used in two rainfall cases. In each case, three numerical experiments, namely CTRL, CONVDA and GPSCONVDA, are performed. The CTRL experiment uses the global analysis as the initial and boundary conditions of the model. In the second experiment, surface and radiosonde observations are inserted into the model. Finally, the GPSCONVDA experiment uses the GPS PWV data in the assimilation process in addition to the conventional observations. It is found that in CONVDA experiment, the mean absolute error (MAE of the accumulated precipitation is reduced about 5 and 13 percent in 24h model simulation of February and September cases, respectively, when compared to CTRL. Also, the results in both cases suggest that the assimilation of GPS data has the greatest impact on model PWV simulations, with maximum root mean squares error (RMSE reduction of 0.7 mm. In the GPSCONVDA experiment, comparison of the vertical profiles of 12h simulated relative humidity with the corresponding radiosonde observations shows a slight improvement in the lower levels.

  15. WRF model performance under flash-flood associated rainfall

    Mejia-Estrada, Iskra; Bates, Paul; Ángel Rico-Ramírez, Miguel


    Understanding the natural processes that precede the occurrence of flash floods is crucial to improve the future flood projections in a changing climate. Using numerical weather prediction tools allows to determine one of the triggering conditions for these particularly dangerous events, difficult to forecast due to their short lead-time. However, simulating the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall that leads to a rapid rise in river levels requires determining the best model configuration without compromising the computational efficiency. The current research involves the results of the first part of a cascade modeling approach, where the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the heavy rainfall in the east of the UK in June 2012 when stationary thunderstorms caused 2-hour accumulated values to match those expected in the whole month of June over the city of Newcastle. The optimum model set-up was obtained after extensive testing regarding physics parameterizations, spin-up times, datasets used as initial conditions and model resolution and nesting, hence determining its sensitivity to reproduce localised events of short duration. The outputs were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed using information from the national weather radar network as well as interpolated rainfall values from gauges, respectively. Statistical and skill score values show that the model is able to produce reliable accumulated precipitation values while explicitly solving the atmospheric equations in high resolution domains as long as several hydrometeors are considered with a spin-up time that allows the model to assimilate the initial conditions without going too far back in time from the event of interest. The results from the WRF model will serve as input to run a semi-distributed hydrological model to determine the rainfall-runoff relationship within an uncertainty assessment framework that will allow evaluating the implications of assumptions at

  16. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Anu Simon; K Mohankumar


    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10°N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25-30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.

  17. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir


    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  18. Correcting temporal sampling error in radar-rainfall: Effect of advection parameters and rain storm characteristics on the correction accuracy

    Seo, Bong-Chul; Krajewski, Witold F.


    This study offers a method to correct for the radar temporal sampling error when determining radar-rainfall accumulations. The authors evaluate the correction effect with respect to multiple factors associated with storm advection, rainfall characteristics, and different rainfall accumulation time scales. The advection method presented in this study uses linear interpolation of static rain storm locations observed at two intermittent radar sampling times to correct for the missed rainfall accumulations. The advection correction is applied to the high space (0.5 km) and time (5-min) resolution radar-rainfall products provided by the Iowa Flood Center. We use the ground reference data from a high quality and high density rain gauge network distributed over the Turkey River basin in Iowa to evaluate the advection corrected rain fields. We base our evaluation on six rain events and examine the correction performance/improvement with respect to the advection discretization, spatial grid aggregation, rainfall basin coverage, and conditional average rainfall intensity. The results show that the 1-min advection discretization is sufficient to represent the observed distribution of storm velocities for the presented cases. Grid aggregation that is motivated by the need to expedite the computation may induce errors in estimating advection vectors. The authors found that while the advection correction tends to enhance the QPE accuracy for intense rain storms over small or isolated areas, it has little impact on the improvement of light rain estimation.

  19. Maximum information photoelectron metrology

    Hockett, P; Wollenhaupt, M; Baumert, T


    Photoelectron interferograms, manifested in photoelectron angular distributions (PADs), are a high-information, coherent observable. In order to obtain the maximum information from angle-resolved photoionization experiments it is desirable to record the full, 3D, photoelectron momentum distribution. Here we apply tomographic reconstruction techniques to obtain such 3D distributions from multiphoton ionization of potassium atoms, and fully analyse the energy and angular content of the 3D data. The PADs obtained as a function of energy indicate good agreement with previous 2D data and detailed analysis [Hockett et. al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 223001 (2014)] over the main spectral features, but also indicate unexpected symmetry-breaking in certain regions of momentum space, thus revealing additional continuum interferences which cannot otherwise be observed. These observations reflect the presence of additional ionization pathways and, most generally, illustrate the power of maximum information measurements of th...

  20. Mesoscale and Local Scale Evaluations of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates by Weather Radar Products during a Heavy Rainfall Event

    Basile Pauthier


    Full Text Available A 24-hour heavy rainfall event occurred in northeastern France from November 3 to 4, 2014. The accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE by PANTHERE and ANTILOPE radar-based gridded products during this particular event, is examined at both mesoscale and local scale, in comparison with two reference rain-gauge networks. Mesoscale accuracy was assessed for the total rainfall accumulated during the 24-hour event, using the Météo France operational rain-gauge network. Local scale accuracy was assessed for both total event rainfall and hourly rainfall accumulations, using the recently developed HydraVitis high-resolution rain gauge network Evaluation shows that (1 PANTHERE radar-based QPE underestimates rainfall fields at mesoscale and local scale; (2 both PANTHERE and ANTILOPE successfully reproduced the spatial variability of rainfall at local scale; (3 PANTHERE underestimates can be significantly improved at local scale by merging these data with rain gauge data interpolation (i.e., ANTILOPE. This study provides a preliminary evaluation of radar-based QPE at local scale, suggesting that merged products are invaluable for applications at very high resolution. The results obtained underline the importance of using high-density rain-gauge networks to obtain information at high spatial and temporal resolution, for better understanding of local rainfall variation, to calibrate remotely sensed rainfall products.

  1. Analysis of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the Eastern Pyrenees

    Portilla Gamboa, M.; Hürlimann, M.; Corominas, J.


    The inventory of rainfall-induced mass movements, rainfall data, and slope characteristics are considered the basis of the analysis determining appropriate rainfall thresholds for mass movements in a specific region. The rainfall-induced landslide thresholds established in the literature for the Catalan Pyrenees have been formulated referring to the rainfall events of November 1982, September 1992, December 1997, and others occurred after 1999. It has been shown that a rainfall intensity greater than 190 mm in 24 hours without antecedent rainfall would be necessary to produce mass movements (Corominas and Moya, 1999; Corominas et al, 2002) or 51mm in 24h with 61 mm of accumulated rainfall (Marco, 2007). Short duration-high intensity rainfalls have brought about several mass movements in some Catalonian regions throughout the course of twenty-first century (Berga, Bonaigua, Saldes, Montserrat, Port-Ainé, Riu Runer, and Sant Nicolau). Preliminary analysis of these events shows that it is necessary to review the thresholds defined so far and redo the existing inventory of mass movements for the Catalan Pyrenees. The present work shows the usefulness of aerial photographs in the reconstruction of the inventory of historic mass movements (Molló-Queralbs, 1940; Arties-Vielha, 1963; Barruera-Senet, 1940 and 1963, and Berga-Cercs, 1982, 1997 and 2008). Also, it highlights the treatment given to scarce and scattered rainfall data available inside these Catalonia’s regions, and the application of Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) in the management of the gathered information. The results acquired until now show that the historic rainfall events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees have yielded many more mass movements than those reported in the literature. Besides, it can be said that the thresholds formulated for the Pyrenees are valid for longstanding regional rainfalls, and not for local downpours. In the latter cases it should be necessary to take into account the

  2. Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

    Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura


    Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

  3. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

    C. Massari


    Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

  4. Spatiotemporal Scaling Effect on Rainfall Network Design Using Entropy

    Chiang Wei


    Full Text Available Because of high variation in mountainous areas, rainfall data at different spatiotemporal scales may yield potential uncertainty for network design. However, few studies focus on the scaling effect on both the spatial and the temporal scale. By calculating the maximum joint entropy of hourly typhoon events, monthly, six dry and wet months and annual rainfall between 1992 and 2012 for 1-, 3-, and 5-km grids, the relocated candidate rain gauges in the National Taiwan University Experimental Forest of Central Taiwan are prioritized. The results show: (1 the network exhibits different locations for first prioritized candidate rain gauges for different spatiotemporal scales; (2 the effect of spatial scales is insignificant compared to temporal scales; and (3 a smaller number and a lower percentage of required stations (PRS reach stable joint entropy for a long duration at finer spatial scale. Prioritized candidate rain gauges provide key reference points for adjusting the network to capture more accurate information and minimize redundancy.

  5. Teleconnections between Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall and the Mediterranean

    Raicich, Fabio; Pinardi, Nadia; Navarra, Antonio


    The teleconnections with Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall indices are investigated here on an interannual time scale in terms of meteorological and marine dynamics over the Mediterranean area. Sea-level pressure from gridded data sets and from individual stations, together with sea-level data from stations all around the Mediterranean coastlines, are used.In summer (July-August-September, JAS) the sea-level pressure field over the eastern Mediterranean anticorrelates with the Indian monsoon index (correlation coefficient C = -0.5 on average). A Mediterranean pressure index (MPI), defined as the standardized difference between sea-level atmospheric pressure at Mersa Matruh (southeastern Mediterranean) and Marseille (northwestern Mediterranean) stations, anticorrelates with Indian monsoon index even more (C = -0.68). The MPI is proportional to the mean geostrophic surface flow field across an imaginary line joining the two stations and turns out to be significantly correlated with the meridional wind component over the eastern Mediterranean, known as the low-level Etesian wind regime. This wind regime represents the inflow surface field into the African inter-tropical convergence zone and, therefore, has an association with the Indian monsoon regime. The ocean response, evident by sea-level anomalies at coastal stations, shows a maximum anticorrelation with Indian monsoon index in late summer and autumn (September-October-November, SON).The Sahel index anticorrelates with sea-level pressure, with the maximum absolute value in June-July-August. This may be interpreted as a tendency of the Mediterranean sea-level pressure anomalies to precede those of Sahel precipitation, which is characterized by maximum rainfall in July-September. The MPI anticorrelates with Sahel index during and before JAS, indicating that the Etesian wind regime intensity is connected to Sahel rainfall. The sea level again anticorrelates with the Sahel index, with the maximum absolute value in

  6. A Unified Theory of Rainfall Extremes, Rainfall Excesses, and IDF Curves

    Veneziano, D.; Yoon, S.


    Extreme rainfall events are a key component of hydrologic risk management and design. Yet, a consistent mathematical theory of such extremes remains elusive. This study aims at laying new statistical foundations for such a theory. The quantities of interest are the distribution of the annual maximum, the distribution of the excess above a high threshold z, and the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Traditionally, the modeling of annual maxima and excesses is based on extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories. These theories establish that the maximum of n iid variables is attracted as n →∞ to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with a certain index k and the distribution of the excess is attracted as z →∞ to a generalized Pareto distribution with the same index. The empirical value of k tends to decrease as the averaging duration d increases. To a first approximation, the IDF intensities scale with d and the return period T . Explanations for this approximate scaling behavior and theoretical predictions of the scaling exponents have emerged over the past few years. This theoretical work has been largely independent of that on the annual maxima and the excesses. Deviations from exact scaling include a tendency of the IDF curves to converge as d and T increase. To bring conceptual clarity and explain the above observations, we analyze the extremes of stationary multifractal measures, which provide good representations of rainfall within storms. These extremes follow from large deviation theory rather than EV/EE theory. A unified framework emerges that (a) encompasses annual maxima, excesses and IDF values without relying on EV or EE asymptotics, (b) predicts the index k and the IDF scaling exponents, (c) explains the dependence of k on d and the deviations from exact scaling of the IDF curves, and (d) explains why the empirical estimates of k tend to be positive (in the Frechet range) while, based on frequently assumed marginal

  7. Prediction of rainfall intensity measurement errors using commercial microwave communication links

    A. Zinevich


    Full Text Available Commercial microwave radio links forming cellular communication networks are known to be a valuable instrument for measuring near-surface rainfall. However, operational communication links are more uncertain relatively to the dedicated installations since their geometry and frequencies are optimized for high communication performance rather than observing rainfall. Quantification of the uncertainties for measurements that are non-optimal in the first place is essential to assure usability of the data.

    In this work we address modeling of instrumental impairments, i.e. signal variability due to antenna wetting, baseline attenuation uncertainty and digital quantization, as well as environmental ones, i.e. variability of drop size distribution along a link affecting accuracy of path-averaged rainfall measurement and spatial variability of rainfall in the link's neighborhood affecting the accuracy of rainfall estimation out of the link path. Expressions for root mean squared error (RMSE for estimates of path-averaged and point rainfall have been derived. To verify the RMSE expressions quantitatively, path-averaged measurements from 21 operational communication links in 12 different locations have been compared to records of five nearby rain gauges over three rainstorm events.

    The experiments show that the prediction accuracy is above 90% for temporal accumulation less than 30 min and lowers for longer accumulation intervals. Spatial variability in the vicinity of the link, baseline attenuation uncertainty and, possibly, suboptimality of wet antenna attenuation model are the major sources of link-gauge discrepancies. In addition, the dependence of the optimal coefficients of a conventional wet antenna attenuation model on spatial rainfall variability and, accordingly, link length has been shown.

    The expressions for RMSE of the path-averaged rainfall estimates can be useful for integration of measurements from multiple

  8. Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought in the Kruger National Park

    N. Zambatis


    Full Text Available Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought, the severest in the recorded history of the Kruger National Park (KNP, are described. Mean total rainfall for the KNP was 235.6 mm (44.1 of the long- term mean, with a median of 239.9 mm. The num- ber of days on which rain occurred also decreased significantly from a mean annual total of 48.3 to a mean of 24.2 in 1991/92. Daily maximum, minimum and average temperatures for some months increased significantly, as did the number of days within certain maximum temperature range classes.

  9. Maximum Likelihood Associative Memories

    Gripon, Vincent; Rabbat, Michael


    Associative memories are structures that store data in such a way that it can later be retrieved given only a part of its content -- a sort-of error/erasure-resilience property. They are used in applications ranging from caches and memory management in CPUs to database engines. In this work we study associative memories built on the maximum likelihood principle. We derive minimum residual error rates when the data stored comes from a uniform binary source. Second, we determine the minimum amo...

  10. Maximum likely scale estimation

    Loog, Marco; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Markussen, Bo


    A maximum likelihood local scale estimation principle is presented. An actual implementation of the estimation principle uses second order moments of multiple measurements at a fixed location in the image. These measurements consist of Gaussian derivatives possibly taken at several scales and....../or having different derivative orders. Although the principle is applicable to a wide variety of image models, the main focus here is on the Brownian model and its use for scale selection in natural images. Furthermore, in the examples provided, the simplifying assumption is made that the behavior...... of the measurements is completely characterized by all moments up to second order....

  11. Maximum-biomass prediction of homofermentative Lactobacillus.

    Cui, Shumao; Zhao, Jianxin; Liu, Xiaoming; Chen, Yong Q; Zhang, Hao; Chen, Wei


    Fed-batch and pH-controlled cultures have been widely used for industrial production of probiotics. The aim of this study was to systematically investigate the relationship between the maximum biomass of different homofermentative Lactobacillus and lactate accumulation, and to develop a prediction equation for the maximum biomass concentration in such cultures. The accumulation of the end products and the depletion of nutrients by various strains were evaluated. In addition, the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of acid anions for various strains at pH 7.0 were examined. The lactate concentration at the point of complete inhibition was not significantly different from the MIC of lactate for all of the strains, although the inhibition mechanism of lactate and acetate on Lactobacillus rhamnosus was different from the other strains which were inhibited by the osmotic pressure caused by acid anions at pH 7.0. When the lactate concentration accumulated to the MIC, the strains stopped growing. The maximum biomass was closely related to the biomass yield per unit of lactate produced (YX/P) and the MIC (C) of lactate for different homofermentative Lactobacillus. Based on the experimental data obtained using different homofermentative Lactobacillus, a prediction equation was established as follows: Xmax - X0 = (0.59 ± 0.02)·YX/P·C.

  12. Impacts of rainfall events on runoff water quality in an agricultural environment in temperate areas.

    Delpla, Ianis; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier


    Since a rise in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations has been observed for surface waters at least over the last two decades, a change in weather conditions (temperature and precipitations) has been proposed to partly explain this increase. While the majority of DOC delivery from soils to stream occurs during rainfall events, a better understanding of the rainfall influence on DOC release is needed. This study has been conducted in Brittany, western France, on agricultural experimental plots receiving either cattle manure (CM) or pig slurry (PS) as fertilizers in accordance with local practices. Each plot was instrumented with a flow meter and an auto sampler for runoff measurements. The results show that export of DOC during high intensity events is higher than during lower intensity rainfalls. Fertilization has a noticeable impact on total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes with an increase of five to seven folds for PS and CM respectively. If TOC shock load occurs shortly after the rainfall peak, DOC maximum appears with the first flush of the event. Organic carbon (OC) is mainly under colloidal (41.2%) and soluble (23.9%) forms during the first stage of a rainfall event and a control of rainfall intensity on OC colloidal transport is suggested. These findings highlight the potential risk of receiving water quality degradation due to the increase of heavier rainfall events with climate change in temperate areas.

  13. Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

    Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.


    Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

  14. Rainfall Intra-Seasonal Variability and Vegetation Growth in the Ferlo Basin (Senegal

    Soukèye Cissé


    Full Text Available During the monsoon season, the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall impacts the growth of vegetation in the Sahel. This study evaluates this effect for the Ferlo basin in central northern Senegal. Relationships between rainfall, soil moisture (SM, and vegetation are assessed using remote sensing data (TRMM3B42 and RFE 2.0 for rainfall, ESA-CCI.SM for soil moisture and MODIS Leaf Area Index (LAI. The principal objective was to analyze the response of vegetation growth to water availability during the rainy season using statistical criteria at the scale of homogeneous vegetation-soil zones. The study covers the period from June to September for the years 2000 to 2010. The surface SM is well correlated with both rainfall products. On ferruginous soils, better correlation of intra-seasonal variations and stronger sensitivity of the vegetation to rainfall are found compared to lithosols soils. LAI responds, on average, two to three weeks after a rainfall anomaly. Moreover, dry spells (negative anomalies of seven days’ length (three days for SM anomaly significantly affect vegetation growth (maximum LAI within the season. A strong and significant link is also found between total precipitation and the number of dry spells. These datasets proved to be sufficiently reliable to assess the impacts of rainfall variability on vegetation dynamics.

  15. Analysis of Physical Quantities and Radar Parameters about Hail Shooting and Heavy Convective Rainfall


    [Objective] The paper is to analyze physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather. [Method] Using radar data of Jinan station during 2002 and 2008, combined with sounding data, the physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather are compared and analyzed. [Result] The smaller Sl is conducive to the generation of hail weather. When K〉 35 ~C, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly increased; when K〈20 ~(3, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly decreased. When CAPE value is greater than 1 500 J/KG, the probability for occurrence of hail weather is significantly decreased, while the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly in- creased. The possibility for occurrence of hail monomer is small when the wind shear is less than 5 m/s; and it is large while wind shear is greater than 20 m/s. The radar forecasting indexes of hail monomer is as follows: VIL value reaches 35 kg/m2 (May), 43 kg/m2 (June and July), the monomer height is greater than 9 km, the maximum reflectivity factor is larger than 60 dBz, strong center height reaches 3.3 km (May), 4.3 km (June) and 5.5 km (July); VlL value of heavy rainfall monomer generally is below 25 kg/m2. [Conclusion] The paper provides basis form prediction of hail and heavy rainfall.

  16. Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western Ghats region of Karnataka

    B Venkatesh; Mathew K Jose


    In view of the ongoing environmental and ecological changes in the Western Ghats, it is important to understand the environmental parameters pertaining to the sustenance of the region. Rainfall is one such parameter governing the hydrological processes crucial to agriculture planning, afforestation and eco-system management. Therefore, it is essential to understand rainfall distribution and its variation in relevance to such activities. The present study is an attempt to gain in-depth understanding in this direction. The study area comprises of one coastal district and its adjoining areas in Karnataka State. Mean annual rainfall data of 93 rain gauge stations distributed over the study area for a period of 10–50 years are used for the study. In order to assess the variation of rainfall across the ghats, several bands were constructed parallel to the latitudes to facilitate the analysis. The statistical analyses conducted included cluster analysis and analysis of variance. The study revealed that there exist three distinct zones of rainfall regimes in the study area, namely, Coastal zone, Transition zone and Malanad zone. It is observed that, the maximum rainfall occurs on the windward side ahead of the geographical peak. Further, mean monthly rainfall distribution over the zones has been depicted to enable agricultural planning in the study area.

  17. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng


    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  18. A gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK applied to a national physically-based modelling system

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Woods, Ross; Bates, Paul; Fowler, Hayley


    An hourly gridded rainfall product has great potential for use in many hydrological applications that require high temporal resolution meteorological data. One important example of this is flood risk management, with flooding in the UK highly dependent on sub-daily rainfall intensities amongst other factors. Knowledge of sub-daily rainfall intensities is therefore critical to designing hydraulic structures or flood defences to appropriate levels of service. Sub-daily rainfall rates are also essential inputs for flood forecasting, allowing for estimates of peak flows and stage for flood warning and response. In addition, an hourly gridded rainfall dataset has significant potential for practical applications such as better representation of extremes and pluvial flash flooding, validation of high resolution climate models and improving the representation of sub-daily rainfall in weather generators. A new 1km gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK has been created by disaggregating the daily Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset using comprehensively quality-controlled hourly rain gauge data from over 1300 observation stations across the country. Quality control measures include identification of frequent tips, daily accumulations and dry spells, comparison of daily totals against the CEH-GEAR daily dataset, and nearest neighbour checks. The quality control procedure was validated against historic extreme rainfall events and the UKCP09 5km daily rainfall dataset. General use of the dataset has been demonstrated by testing the sensitivity of a physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain to the distribution and rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Of the sensitivity tests undertaken, the largest improvements in model performance were seen when an hourly gridded rainfall dataset was combined with potential evapotranspiration disaggregated to hourly intervals, with 61% of catchments showing an increase in NSE between

  19. Meso-scale distribution of summer monsoon rainfall near the Western Ghats (India)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Asnani, G. C.


    The spatial distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall is studied over Maharashtra State (India), which includes part of the well-known Western Ghats mountain range, near its western boundary, running almost from north to south, perpendicular to the summer monsoon current in the lower troposphere. Meso-scale analysis of daily rainfall is performed for Maharashtra State, including the Western Ghats, for the two mid-monsoon months of July and August, during the 10-year period of 1971-1980. Strong and weak monsoon days were identified for the 5-year period of 1976-1980. The meso-scale pattern of average daily rainfall is obtained separately for strong and for weak monsoon conditions.All these average patterns show the following features: (i) the rainfall increases rapidly from the Arabian Sea coast close to the line of maximum height of the Western Ghats; (ii) there are two rainfall maxima corresponding to the two mountain peaks parallel to the coast line; (iii) between the two mountain peaks, there is a valley which is narrow at the western end (upwind end), broadening towards the east (on the downwind side). Ground contour height of the valley rises eastwards and ends as a part of the Deccan Plateau east of the Ghats. Here the valley opens out like a funnel with higher mountains flanking its two sides. In the valley, the rainfall increases from the coast up to the line of maximum height of the Ghats, and then decreases eastwards towards the plateau. The rainfall isopleths also take a funnel-shaped configuration. An interesting feature is that near the wider section of the valley funnel, there is a rainfall minimum and then the rainfall increases further eastwards on the downwind side. This feature of rainfall minimum is somewhat similar to the rainfall minimum reported by Asnani and Kinuthia (personal communication); Asnani (Asnani GC. 1993. Tropical Meteorology, Vol. I. Prof. G.C. Asnani: Pune, India; 603) attributed the rainfall minimum to the Bernoulli effect. A

  20. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows in a human-modified landscape

    Giannecchini, Roberto; Galanti, Yuri; D'Amato Avanzi, Giacomo; Barsanti, Michele


    In the Carrara Marble Basin (CMB; Apuan Alps, Italy) quarrying has accumulated widespread and thick quarry waste, lying on steep slopes and invading valley bottoms. The Apuan Alps are one of the rainiest areas in Italy and rainstorms often cause landslides and debris flows. The stability conditions of quarry waste are difficult to assess, owing to its textural, geotechnical and hydrogeological variability. Therefore, empirical rainfall thresholds may be effective in forecasting the possible occurrence of debris flows in the CMB. Three types of thresholds were defined for three rain gauges of the CMB and for the whole area: rainfall intensity-rainfall duration (ID), cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED), and cumulated event rainfall normalized by the mean annual precipitation-rainfall intensity (EMAPI). The rainfall events recorded from 1950 to 2005 was analyzed and compared with the occurrence of debris flows involving the quarry waste. They were classified in events that triggered one or more debris flows and events that did not trigger debris flows. This dataset was fitted using the logistic regression method that allows us to define a set of thresholds, corresponding to different probabilities of failure (from 10% to 90%) and therefore to different warning levels. The performance of the logistic regression in defining probabilistic thresholds was evaluated by means of contingency tables, skill scores and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. These analyses indicate that the predictive capability of the three types of threshold is acceptable for each rain gauge and for the whole CMB. The best compromise between the number of correct debris flow predictions and the number of wrong predictions is obtained for the 40% probability thresholds. The results obtained can be tested in an experimental debris flows forecasting system based on rainfall thresholds, and could have implications for the debris flow hazard and risk assessment in the CMB.

  1. Eurasian Snow Conditions and Summer Monsoon Rainfall over South and Southeast Asia:Assessment and Comparison


    This study reveals the complex nature of the connection between Eurasian snow and the following summer season's monsoon rainfall by using four different indicators of snow conditions and correlating each of them to summer monsoon rainfall. Using 46 years of historical records of mean winter snow depth,maximum snow depth, and snow starting dates, and 27 years of snow area coverage from remote sensing observations over Eurasia, the authors found diverse correlation patterns between snow conditions and the following warm season's rainfall over South and Southeast Asia. Some of the results contradict the well-known inverse relationships between snow and the summer monsoon. This study provides an easy comparison of results in that it shows the connections between Eurasian snow and monsoon rainfall by using different Eurasian snow indicators based on the best available historical records without discrimination of regional variations in snow conditions.

  2. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire


    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  3. Maximum Entropy Fundamentals

    F. Topsøe


    Full Text Available Abstract: In its modern formulation, the Maximum Entropy Principle was promoted by E.T. Jaynes, starting in the mid-fifties. The principle dictates that one should look for a distribution, consistent with available information, which maximizes the entropy. However, this principle focuses only on distributions and it appears advantageous to bring information theoretical thinking more prominently into play by also focusing on the "observer" and on coding. This view was brought forward by the second named author in the late seventies and is the view we will follow-up on here. It leads to the consideration of a certain game, the Code Length Game and, via standard game theoretical thinking, to a principle of Game Theoretical Equilibrium. This principle is more basic than the Maximum Entropy Principle in the sense that the search for one type of optimal strategies in the Code Length Game translates directly into the search for distributions with maximum entropy. In the present paper we offer a self-contained and comprehensive treatment of fundamentals of both principles mentioned, based on a study of the Code Length Game. Though new concepts and results are presented, the reading should be instructional and accessible to a rather wide audience, at least if certain mathematical details are left aside at a rst reading. The most frequently studied instance of entropy maximization pertains to the Mean Energy Model which involves a moment constraint related to a given function, here taken to represent "energy". This type of application is very well known from the literature with hundreds of applications pertaining to several different elds and will also here serve as important illustration of the theory. But our approach reaches further, especially regarding the study of continuity properties of the entropy function, and this leads to new results which allow a discussion of models with so-called entropy loss. These results have tempted us to speculate over

  4. Recurring features of extreme autumnall rainfall events on the Veneto coastal area

    Barbi, A.; Monai, M.; Racca, R.; Rossa, A. M.


    Recent recurring episodes of heavy flash flood-producing rainfall events on the Veneto coastal area have renewed the interest in documenting the frequency and key dynamical ingredients of such events. A climatological analysis of the precipitation in Veneto reveals that, in comparison with the rest of the region, the coastal area is characterized by fewer rain days, lower rainfall accumulations, yet more days with heavy precipitation. If set in relation to the yearly rainfall, daily accumulation can reach values as high as 40% of the yearly total rainfall, more regularly between 15% and 30%, often in periods of 12 h or less. Four such heavy rainfall events were analyzed and synthetically described to highlight key ingredients which appear instrumental in producing the high rainfall accumulations. These comprise an upper-level trough elongating or cutting off into the Western Mediterranean basin after a period of one to two weeks of anticyclonic fair weather conditions with temperatures above normal. The moisture supply over the Adriatic onto north-eastern Italy is favoured by above normal sea surface temperatures, enhanced advection by a surface low in the Gulf of Genoa, and in three of the four cases, an additional surface low over southern Italy. The air flows associated with the upper-level trough for the cases discussed were of moderate to weak intensity, and convectively conditionally unstable. The flow intensity was such that the lower tropospheric portion was blocked by and forced to flow around the Alpine barrier, i.e. manifesting as a north-easterly, low-level flow over much of the north-eastern Italian plains. This blocked flow seemed to interact with the larger-scale synoptic flow to form a distinct and persistent low-level convergence in the area of the Veneto coast. It is suggested that these low-level convergence patterns are key in releasing the convective instability present in the larger-scale flow just on the Veneto coastal area. Hereby, it is the

  5. Regularized maximum correntropy machine

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan


    In this paper we investigate the usage of regularized correntropy framework for learning of classifiers from noisy labels. The class label predictors learned by minimizing transitional loss functions are sensitive to the noisy and outlying labels of training samples, because the transitional loss functions are equally applied to all the samples. To solve this problem, we propose to learn the class label predictors by maximizing the correntropy between the predicted labels and the true labels of the training samples, under the regularized Maximum Correntropy Criteria (MCC) framework. Moreover, we regularize the predictor parameter to control the complexity of the predictor. The learning problem is formulated by an objective function considering the parameter regularization and MCC simultaneously. By optimizing the objective function alternately, we develop a novel predictor learning algorithm. The experiments on two challenging pattern classification tasks show that it significantly outperforms the machines with transitional loss functions.

  6. Overland flow connectivity in olive orchard plots with cover crops and conventional tillage, and under different rainfall scenarios

    López-Vicente, Manuel; García-Ruiz, Roberto; Guzmán, Gema; Vicente-Vicente, José Luis; Gómez, José Alfonso


    The study of overland flow connectivity (QC) allows understanding the redistribution dynamics of runoff and soil components as an emergent property of the spatio-temporal interactions of hydrological and geomorphic processes. However, very few studies have dealt with runoff connectivity in olive orchards. In this study we simulated QC in four olive orchard plots, located on the Santa Marta farm (37° 20' 33.6" N, 6° 13' 44" W), in Seville province (Andalusia) in SW Spain. The olive plantation was established in 1985 with trees planted at 8 m x 6 m. Each bounded plot is 8 m wide (between 2 tree lines) and 60 m long (total area of 480 m2), laid out with the longest dimension parallel to the maximum slope and to the tree lines. The slope is uniform, with an average steepness of 11%. Two plots (P2 and P4) were devoted to conventional tillage (CT) consisting of regular chisel plow passes depending on weed growth. Another set of two plots had two types of cover crops (CC) in the inter tree rows (the area outside the vertical olive canopy projection): uniform CC of Lolium multiflorum (P3) and a mixture of L. rigidum and L. multiflorum together with other species (P5). The tree rows were treated with herbicide to keep bare soil. We selected the Index of runoff and sediment Connectivity (IC) of Borselli et al. (2008) to simulate three rainfall scenarios: i) low rainfall intensity (Sc-LowInt) and using the MD flow accumulation algorithm; ii) moderate rainfall intensity (Sc-ModInt) and using MD8; and iii) high rainfall intensity (Sc-HighInt) and using D8. After analysing the values of rainfall intensity during two hydrological years (Oct'09-Sep'10 and Oct'10-Sep'11) we associated the three scenarios with the followings months: Sc-LowInt during the period Jan-Mar, that summarizes 42% of all annual rainfall events; Sc-ModInt during Oct-Nov and Apr-May (32% of all events); and Sc-HighInt during the period Jun-Sep and in December (26% of all events). Instead of using the C

  7. Empirical rainfall thresholds and copula based IDF curves for shallow landslides and flash floods

    Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca; Brilly, Mitja; Mikoš, Matjaž


    rainfall data with 5-minute time step where the data series ranged from 11 to 66 years. Gumbel and Gamma distributions were selected to model annual maximums of rainfall intensities and durations, respectively. Method of L-moments was used to estimate the marginal distributions parameters and method of moments was chosen to estimate the Frank copula parameter. Comparison between ID curves and IDF curves constructed using copula approach was also made.

  8. An Analysis of Thermally-Related Surface Rainfall Budgets Associated with Convective and Stratiform Rainfall

    ZHOU Yushu; Xiaofan LI


    Both water vapor and heat processes play key roles in producing surface rainfall.While the water vapor effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes on surface rainfall have been investigated in previous studies,the thermal effects on rainfall are analyzed in this study using a series of two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model experiments forced by zonally-uniform,constant,large-scale zonal wind and zero large-scale vertical velocity.The analysis of thermally-related surface rainfall budget reveals that the model domain mean surface rain rate is primarily associated with the mean infrared cooling rate.Convective rainfall and transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions corresponds to the heat divergence over convective regions,whereas stratiform rainfall corresponds to the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.The heat divergence over convective regions is mainly balanced by the heat convergence over rainfall-free regions,which is,in turn,offset by the radiative cooling over rainfall-free regions.The sensitivity experiments of rainfall to the effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes show that the sea surface temperature and cloud processes affect convective rainfall through the changes in infrared cooling rate over rainfall-free regions and transport rate of heat from convective regions to rainfall-free regions.

  9. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

    Engelbrecht, CJ


    Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

  10. The impacts of the Indian summer rainfall on North China summer rainfall

    Wu, Renguang; Jiao, Yang


    Previous studies have indicated a connection between interannual variations of the Indian and North China summer rainfall. An atmospheric circulation wave pattern over the mid-latitude Asia plays an important role in the connection. The present study compares the influence of the above-normal and below-normal Indian summer rainfall on the North China summer rainfall variations. Composite analysis shows that the mid-latitude Asian atmospheric circulation and the North China rainfall anomalies during summer tend to be anti-symmetric in above-normal and below-normal Indian rainfall years. Analysis indicates that the Indian-North China summer rainfall relation tends to be stronger when larger Indian rainfall anomaly occurs during a higher mean rainfall period. The observed long-term change in the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship cannot be explained by the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study evaluates the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship in climate models. Analysis shows that the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship differs largely among different climate models and among different simulations of a specific model. The relationship also displays obvious temporal variations in both individual and ensemble mean model simulations. This suggests an important role of the atmospheric internal variability in the change of the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship.

  11. Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

    Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo


    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  12. Partial Least Squares Regression for Determining the Control Factors for Runoff and Suspended Sediment Yield during Rainfall Events

    Nufang Fang


    Full Text Available Multivariate statistics are commonly used to identify the factors that control the dynamics of runoff or sediment yields during hydrological processes. However, one issue with the use of conventional statistical methods to address relationships between variables and runoff or sediment yield is multicollinearity. The main objectives of this study were to apply a method for effectively identifying runoff and sediment control factors during hydrological processes and apply that method to a case study. The method combines the clustering approach and partial least squares regression (PLSR models. The case study was conducted in a mountainous watershed in the Three Gorges Area. A total of 29 flood events in three hydrological years in areas with different land uses were obtained. In total, fourteen related variables were separated from hydrographs using the classical hydrograph separation method. Twenty-nine rainfall events were classified into two rainfall regimes (heavy Rainfall Regime I and moderate Rainfall Regime II based on rainfall characteristics and K-means clustering. Four separate PLSR models were constructed to identify the main variables that control runoff and sediment yield for the two rainfall regimes. For Rainfall Regime I, the dominant first-order factors affecting the changes in sediment yield in our study were all of the four rainfall-related variables, flood peak discharge, maximum flood suspended sediment concentration, runoff, and the percentages of forest and farmland. For Rainfall Regime II, antecedent condition-related variables have more effects on both runoff and sediment yield than in Rainfall Regime I. The results suggest that the different control factors of the two rainfall regimes are determined by the rainfall characteristics and thus different runoff mechanisms.

  13. Updating Rainfall Erosivity Map of the Mediterranean Region in Turkey by RUSLE-R and GIS

    Topcu, P.; Deviren Saygin, S.; Erpul, G.; Bayramin, I.


    To understand and analyze rainfall variability is a need for evaluating the erosive potential of rainfall in terms of space and time. In this study of revising rainfall erosivity index by RUSLE-R equation and recent data set, we focus in particular on the semi-arid areas of the Mediterranean Region, Turkey, where soil erosion is one of the major threats to soil and water resources and where soil erosion is as acute as or more severe than those in other Mediterranean countries. The primary data set included electronically stored daily rainfall records of the Turkish State Meteorological Service for the years from 1993 to 2004 at the 38 climate stations located in the Mediterranean Region. After analyzing the time-depth records of each independent erosive rainfall, RUSLE-R was calculated as the product of average rainfall energy and a 30-min maximum intensity of rainfall. Point RUSLE-R values as long-term averages obtained for each climate station were interpolated using tri-variate functions of longitude, latitude, and elevation to have a map. Summarily, by integrating Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the rainfall erosivity map of the Mediterranean Region in Turkey was updated. Doubtlessly, this study would provide data not only for climate studies but also opportunities for integration of climate data with properties of soil, topography and land use to understand complicated hydrologic processes at watershed and regional scales and would be effectively employed to take soil and water conservation measures. Key words: rainfall erosivity index, RUSLE prediction technology, soil erosion, GIS. Acknowledgement Authors gratefully acknowledge "The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey", TUBITAK, for support within project of CAYDAG-107Y155.

  14. Temperature and rainfall are related to fertility rate after spring artificial insemination in small ruminants

    Abecia, J. A.; Arrébola, F.; Macías, A.; Laviña, A.; González-Casquet, O.; Benítez, F.; Palacios, C.


    A total number of 1092 artificial inseminations (AIs) performed from March to May were documented over four consecutive years on 10 Payoya goat farms (36° N) and 19,392 AIs on 102 Rasa Aragonesa sheep farms (41° N) over 10 years. Mean, maximum, and minimum ambient temperatures, mean relative humidity, mean solar radiation, and total rainfall on each insemination day were recorded. Overall, fertility rates were 58 % in goats and 45 % in sheep. The fertility rates of the highest and lowest deciles of each of the meteorological variables indicated that temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on fertility in goats. Specifically, inseminations that were performed when mean (68 %), maximum (68 %), and minimum (66 %) temperatures were in the highest decile, and rainfall was in the lowest decile (59 %), had a significantly ( P AI in spring. It remains to be determined whether scheduling the dates of insemination based on forecasted temperatures can improve the success of AI in goats and sheep.

  15. Equalized near maximum likelihood detector


    This paper presents new detector that is used to mitigate intersymbol interference introduced by bandlimited channels. This detector is named equalized near maximum likelihood detector which combines nonlinear equalizer and near maximum likelihood detector. Simulation results show that the performance of equalized near maximum likelihood detector is better than the performance of nonlinear equalizer but worse than near maximum likelihood detector.

  16. Generalized Maximum Entropy

    Cheeseman, Peter; Stutz, John


    A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

  17. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe

    Ballabio, C; Meusburger, K; Klik, A


    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and...

  18. Complex Dynamics in Models of Peat Accumulation lead to Dramatic Regime Shifts under a Steady Climate

    Morris, P. J.; Baird, A. J.; Belyea, L. R.


    Peatlands are highly concentrated and potentially fragile stores of organic carbon (C), and the accumulation of deep peat deposits during the Holocene represents a globally-significant terrestrial C sink. Several existing models predict the 1-D (vertical) accumulation of peat based on representations of peatland ecohydrological feedbacks. However, many such models make oversimplifying assumptions. In particular, hydraulic conductivity, the rate of formation of fresh peat, and peatland lateral (drainage) extent are often assumed to be constants. The available evidence suggests that complex feedbacks between these quantities and other neglected elements of peatland systems may play an important role in determining long-term rates of peat accumulation and trends in peatland surface-wetness. We observed the response of a 1-D model of peat accumulation to assumed long-term net rainfall rates and peat decay rates over 5,000 simulated years. We increased model complexity incrementally so as to represent: rate of formation of fresh peat as a humpback function of surface wetness; hydraulic conductivity as a logarithmic function of peat decay; and peatland lateral extent as various functions of time. Each incremental increase in model complexity caused qualitative and quantitative alterations to model behaviour, suggesting that the accurate understanding of peat accumulation may require the consideration of complex, interacting feedbacks not previously considered in modelling studies. Importantly, maximum long-term rates of peat accumulation occurred under intermediate peat decay rates and intermediate rainfall rates. This is a novel finding which challenges the assumptions of traditional, static models commonly used to estimate rates of carbon accumulation from dated peat profiles. Also, the assumed rate and mode of peatland lateral expansion are identifiable in model peat profiles, suggesting that they may also have to be taken into account when analysing peat records

  19. Maximum size distributions in tropical forest communities: relationships with rainfall and disturbance

    Poorter, L.; Hawthorne, W.D.; Sheil, D.; Bongers, F.J.J.M.


    The diversity and structure of communities are partly determined by how species partition resource gradients. Plant size is an important indicator of species position along the vertical light gradient in the vegetation. 2. Here, we compared the size distribution of tree species in 44 Ghanaian

  20. On Extreme Value Statistics: maximum likelihood; portfolio optimization; extremal rainfall; internet auctions

    C. Zhou (Chen)


    textabstractIn the 18th century, statisticians sometimes worked as consultants to gamblers. In order to answer questions like "If a fair coin is flipped 100 times, what is the probability of getting 60 or more heads?", Abraham de Moivre discovered the so-called "normal curve". Independently, Pierre-

  1. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick


    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  2. Modelling persistence in annual Australia point rainfall

    J. P. Whiting


    Full Text Available Annual rainfall time series for Sydney from 1859 to 1999 is analysed. Clear evidence of nonstationarity is presented, but substantial evidence for persistence or hidden states is more elusive. A test of the hypothesis that a hidden state Markov model reduces to a mixture distribution is presented. There is strong evidence of a correlation between the annual rainfall and climate indices. Strong evidence of persistence of one of these indices, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, is presented together with a demonstration that this is better modelled by fractional differencing than by a hidden state Markov model. It is shown that conditioning the logarithm of rainfall on PDO, the Southern Oscillation index (SOI, and their interaction provides realistic simulation of rainfall that matches observed statistics. Similar simulation models are presented for Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. Keywords: Hydrological persistence,hidden state Markov models, fractional differencing, PDO, SOI, Australian rainfall

  3. Free fall of water drops in laboratory rainfall simulations

    Chowdhury, M. Nasimul; Testik, Firat Y.; Hornack, Mathew C.; Khan, Abdul A.


    Motivated by various hydrological and meteorological applications, this paper investigates the free fall of water drops to provide guidance in laboratory simulations of natural rainfall and to elucidate drop morphodynamics. Drop fall velocity and shape parameters such as axis ratio (ratio of the maximum vertical and horizontal chords of the drop), chord ratio [ratio of the two orthogonal chords where one chord (cl) is the longest chord in the drop and the other one (cs) is the longest chord that is orthogonal to cl], canting angle (angle between the longest chord of the drop and the horizontal axis), and relative fluctuation of chords (difference between vertical and horizontal chord fluctuations) were investigated for three selected water drop sizes (2.6, 3.7, and 5.1 mm spherical volume equivalent diameter) using high speed imaging. Based upon experimental observations, three distinct fall zones were identified: Zone I, in which source-induced oscillations and shape adjustment take place; Zone II, in which equilibrium-shaped drops accelerate to achieve terminal velocity; and Zone III, in which equilibrium-shaped drops fall at terminal velocity. Our results revealed that the fall distance values of approximately 6 m and 12 m can be used as conservative reference values for rainfall experiments with oscillation-free fall of drops (i.e. end of Zone I and onset of Zone II) and with equilibrium-shaped drops falling at terminal velocities (i.e. end of Zone II and onset of Zone III), respectively, for the entire raindrop size spectrum in natural rainfall. These required fall distance values are smaller than the distances discussed in the literature. Methodology and results presented here will facilitate optimum experimental laboratory simulations of natural rainfall.

  4. Influência da soma térmica e da chuva durante o desenvolvimento de laranjas-'Valência' e 'Natal' na relação entre sólidos solúveis e acidez e no índice tecnológico do suco Influence of the accumulated heat unit and rainfall on the ratio and technological index of sweet oranges 'Valência' and 'Natal'



    Full Text Available Este trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de conhecer a influência que algumas variáveis meteorológicas exercem na razão entre sólidos solúveis totais e acidez total titulável ("ratio" e no índice tecnológico dos frutos da primeira florada das laranjeiras-'Natal' e 'Valência', na região de Bebedouro-SP, mediante a utilização de métodos estatísticos de regressão. Foram utilizados dados de amostragens de rotina para o processamento industrial durante 4 anos, os quais permitiram desenvolver equações de regressão linear e quadrática, com a soma térmica (graus-dia como variável independente, e de regressão múltipla, utilizando graus-dia e chuva como variáveis independentes. A equação de melhor ajuste para o índice tecnológico foi a quadrática, enquanto para o "ratio" a equação linear apresentou o melhor ajuste. A temperatura do ar, representada por graus-dia, foi a variável que exerceu maior influência nos indicadores de qualidade dos frutos.This study aimed to know the influence of some meteorological variables on the ratio and technological index for oranges provided from 'Natal' and 'Valencia' orchards, from field plots, located at Bebedouro - São Paulo - Brazil. The quality indicators, ratio and technological index, were obtained from routine processing plant tests. These parameters were related to the meteorological variables: degree-day and rainfall. In order to determine which independent variable had a stronger influence on the fruit quality indicators, single and multiple linear regressions analysis were applied. The results have shown that technological index is better described by a quadratic function, and ratio is better described by a linear regression, as function of independent variables. The statistical analysis have indicated that the air temperature, expressed by accumulated degree day, is the meteorological aspect that had greater influence in fruit quality indicators.

  5. Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

    Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann


    Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches

  6. A Numerical Investigation of Vapor Intrusion — the Dynamic Response of Contaminant Vapors to Rainfall Events

    Shen, Rui; Pennell, Kelly G.; Suuberg, Eric M.


    The U.S. government and various agencies have published guidelines for field investigation of vapor intrusion, most of which suggest soil gas sampling as an integral part of the investigation. Contaminant soil gas data are often relatively more stable than indoor air vapor concentration measurements, but meteorological conditions might influence soil gas values. Although a few field and numerical studies have considered some temporal effects on soil gas vapor transport, a full explanation of the contaminant vapor concentration response to rainfall events is not available. This manuscript seeks to demonstrate the effects on soil vapor transport during and after different rainfall events, by applying a coupled numerical model of fluid flow and vapor transport. Both a single rainfall event and seasonal rainfall events were modeled. For the single rainfall event models, the vapor response process could be divided into three steps: namely, infiltration, water redistribution, and establishment of a water lens atop the groundwater source. In the infiltration step, rainfall intensity was found to determine the speed of the wetting front and wash-out effect on the vapor. The passage of the wetting front led to an increase of the vapor concentration in both the infiltration and water redistribution steps and this effect is noted at soil probes located 1 m below the ground surface. When the mixing of groundwater with infiltrated water was not allowed, a clean water lens accumulated above the groundwater source and led to a capping effect which can reduce diffusion rates of contaminant from the source. Seasonal rainfall with short time intervals involved superposition of the individual rainfall events. This modeling results indicated that for relatively deeper soil that the infiltration wetting front could not flood, the effects were damped out in less than a month after rain; while in the long term (years), possible formation of a water lens played a larger role in

  7. A numerical investigation of vapor intrusion--the dynamic response of contaminant vapors to rainfall events.

    Shen, Rui; Pennell, Kelly G; Suuberg, Eric M


    The U.S. government and various agencies have published guidelines for field investigation of vapor intrusion, most of which suggest soil gas sampling as an integral part of the investigation. Contaminant soil gas data are often relatively more stable than indoor air vapor concentration measurements, but meteorological conditions might influence soil gas values. Although a few field and numerical studies have considered some temporal effects on soil gas vapor transport, a full explanation of the contaminant vapor concentration response to rainfall events is not available. This manuscript seeks to demonstrate the effects on soil vapor transport during and after different rainfall events, by applying a coupled numerical model of fluid flow and vapor transport. Both a single rainfall event and seasonal rainfall events were modeled. For the single rainfall event models, the vapor response process could be divided into three steps: namely, infiltration, water redistribution, and establishment of a water lens atop the groundwater source. In the infiltration step, rainfall intensity was found to determine the speed of the wetting front and wash-out effect on the vapor. The passage of the wetting front led to an increase of the vapor concentration in both the infiltration and water redistribution steps and this effect is noted at soil probes located 1m below the ground surface. When the mixing of groundwater with infiltrated water was not allowed, a clean water lens accumulated above the groundwater source and led to a capping effect which can reduce diffusion rates of contaminant from the source. Seasonal rainfall with short time intervals involved superposition of the individual rainfall events. This modeling results indicated that for relatively deeper soil that the infiltration wetting front could not flood, the effects were damped out in less than a month after rain; while in the long term (years), possible formation of a water lens played a larger role in determining

  8. Mapping the world's tropical cyclone rainfall contribution over land using TRMM satellite data: precipitation budget and extreme rainfall

    Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.


    A study was performed to characterize over-land precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) for basins around the world gathered in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). From 1998 to 2010, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42, showed that TCs accounted for 8-, 11-, 7-, 10-, and 12-% of the annual over-land precipitation for North America, East Asia, Northern Indian Ocean, Australia, and South-West Indian Ocean respectively, and that TC-contribution decreased importantly within the first 150-km from the coast. At the local scale, TCs contributed on average to more than 40% and up to 77% of the annual precipitation budget over very different climatic areas with arid or tropical characteristics. The East Asia domain presented the higher and most constant TC-rain (170±23%-mm/yr) normalized over the area impacted, while the Southwest Indian domain presented the highest variability (130±48%-mm/yr), and the North American domain displayed the lowest average TC-rain (77±27%-mm/yr) despite a higher TC-activity. The maximum monthly TC-contribution (11-15%) was found later in the TC-season and was a conjunction between the peak of TC-activity, TC-rainfall, and the domain annual antagonism between dry and wet regimes if any. Furthermore, TC-days that accounted globally for 2±0.5% of all precipitation events for all basins, represented between 11-30% of rainfall extremes (>101.6mm/day). Locally, TC-rainfall was linked with the majority (>70%) or the quasi-totality (≈100%) of extreme rainfall. Finally, because of their importance in terms of rainfall amount, the contribution of tropical cyclones is provided for a selection of fifty urban areas experiencing cyclonic activity. Cases studies conducted at the regional scale will focus on the link between TC-activity, water resources, and hydrohazards such as floods and droughts.

  9. Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province


    Feb 9, 2009 ... Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, Geography Building 2-12, University of .... An example of heavy rainfall 'climatology' in the scientific .... rainfall stations in the calculation of the area-average rainfall.

  10. Exploring the relationship between gully erosion and rainfall erosivity

    Campo, Miguel; Casalí, Javier; Giménez, Rafael


    Rainfall erosivity plays and important role in gully erosion. However, there are few studies that explore this relationship. The main purpose of this work is to analyse the link between observed gully erosion rates and rainfall erosivity. However, in order to get a suitable and comparable set of daily rainfall erosivity data, we firstly evaluate the performance of several daily rainfall erosivity models to estimate the daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index. One 300 ha watershed (El Cantalar) located in Navarre (Spain) was selected to carry out field studies. A meteorological station located 10 km appart from the experimental site provided daily precipitation records since 1930 to 2009 and also 10min records since 1991 to 2009. In this watershed a total of 35 gully headcuts developed in cohesive soil were monitored. Aerial photographic stereo-pairs covering the study area were used for the survey. These were taken in five different years and at different spatial scales each time: 1956 (1: 34,000), 1967 (1:17,500), 1982 (1:13,500), 2003 (1:20,000) and 2006 (1:2000). Manual restitution of photographs was carried out. 1m resolution DEMs were obtained by triangular interpolation (Triangular Irregular Network) and then used to characterize gully headcuts. Moreover, from the aerial photos and the DEMs, ortho-photographs with a final resolution of 0.40 m were created. The geocoding of the scenes had a Root Mean Square error of less than 0.5 m both in planimetry and altimetry. Furthermore, using the DEMs and the ortho-photographs, volumetric headcut retreat rates for each period were calculated as the product of the lineal retreat and a representative section of the headcut. Daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index was calculated in a conventional way from records of precipitation every 10 minutes for the period 1991-2009; these results were used as reference data. In addition, for the same period, this index was estimated with daily precipitation records through several models

  11. On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas. Part 1; Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar on TRMM

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)


    This study represents one of the first published attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Data from the first space-based rain-radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of the data enables identification of rainfall patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage chances are relative to an upwind CONTROL area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area can exceed the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work will investi(yate hypothesized factors causing rainfall modification by urban areas. Additional work is also needed to provide more robust validation of space-based rain estimates near major urban areas. Such research has implications for urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment.

  12. Response of forestland soil water content to heavy rainfall on Beijing Mountain, northern China

    Jianbo Jia; Xinxiao Yu; Yitao Li


    Continuous recording of precipitation and soil water content (SWC), especially during long periods of tor-rential rainfall, has proven challenging. Over a 16 h period spanning 21–22 July, 2012, Beijing experienced historic rainfall that totaled 164.4 mm. We used large lysimeter technology in four forested plots to record precipitation and variation in SWC at 10-min intervals to quantify the response of forestland SWC to heavy rainfall in a semi-arid area. Mean, maximum and minimum rainfall intensities were 23.4, 46.8 and 12.0 mm/h, respectively. Rainfall was concentrated in 2–6 mm bursts that accounted for 67.32%of the total rainfall event. Soil moisture conditions in this region are strongly dependent on patterns of precipitation. Water infiltration into 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120 and 160 cm soil layers required 1, 5, 20, 37, 46, 52 and 61 mm of precipitation, respectively, and to fully saturate these soil layers required 80, 120, 140, 150, 180, 200 and 220 mm of precipitation, respectively.

  13. Shannon information entropy for assessing space-time variability of rainfall and streamflow in semiarid region.

    Rodrigues da Silva, Vicente de P; Belo Filho, Adelgcio F; Rodrigues Almeida, Rafaela S; de Holanda, Romildo Morant; da Cunha Campos, João Hugo Baracuy


    The principle of maximum entropy can provide consistent basis to analyze water resources and geophysical processes in general. In this paper, we propose to assess the space-time variability of rainfall and streamflow in northeastern region of Brazil using the Shannon entropy. Mean values of marginal and relative entropies were computed for a 10-year period from 189 stations in the study area and entropy maps were then constructed for delineating annual and seasonal characteristics of rainfall and streamflow. The Mann-Kendall test was used to evaluate the long-term trend in marginal entropy as well as relative entropy for two sample stations. High degree of similarity was found between rainfall and streamflow, particularly during dry season. Both rainfall and streamflow variability can satisfactorily be obtained in terms of marginal entropy as a comprehensive measure of the regional uncertainty of these hydrological events. The Shannon entropy produced spatial patterns which led to a better understanding of rainfall and streamflow characteristics throughout the northeastern region of Brazil. The total relative entropy indicated that rainfall and streamflow carried the same information content at annual and rainy season time scales.

  14. Assessment of Short Term Rainfall and Stream Flows in South Australia

    Mohammad Kamruzzaman


    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between rainfall and stream flow at Broughton River in Mooroola, Torrance River in Mount Pleasant, and Wakefield River near Rhyine, in South Australia, from 1990 to 2010. Initially, we present a short term relationship between rainfall and stream flow, in terms of correlations, lagged correlations, and estimated variability between wavelet coefficients at each level. A deterministic regression based response model is used to detect linear, quadratic and polynomial trends, while allowing for seasonality effects. Antecedent rainfall data were considered to predict stream flow. The best fitting model was selected based on maximum adjusted R2 values (R2adj , minimum sigma square (σ2, and a minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC. The best performance in the response model is lag rainfall, which indicates at least one day and up to 7 days (past difference in rainfall, including offset cross products of lag rainfall. With the inclusion of antecedent stream flow as an input with one day time lag, the result shows a significant improvement of the R2adj values from 0.18, 0.26 and 0.14 to 0.35, 0.42 and 0.21 at Broughton River, Torrance River and Wakefield River, respectively. A benchmark comparison was made with an Artificial Neural Network analysis. The optimization strategy involved adopting a minimum mean absolute error (MAE.

  15. Method for generating spatial and temporal synthetic hourly rainfall in the Valley of Mexico

    Mendoza-Resendiz, Alejandro; Arganis-Juarez, Maritza; Dominguez-Mora, Ramon; Echavarria, Bernardo


    Hydrological risk analyses require a dense pluviometer network and a long period of records with an adequate time resolution; usually pluviometer networks have short periods of simultaneous records, so it is required to extend the number of records by means of synthetically generated rainfall events. This paper describes the development and implementation of a method based on a daily rainfall disaggregation for generating synthetic rainfall events distributed spatially and temporally. It uses the information recorded in 49 rain-gauge stations in the network of the basin of the Valley of Mexico during the rainy season from 1988 to 2006. Within various methods found in the literature, we consider that this one provides a greater simplicity for a practical implementation. The tests carried out showed that rainfall events generated with this method properly reproduce the statistical parameters of the historical records, including those that are not implicitly incorporated in the model, as is the case of the synthetic hourly rainfall, whose statistical values are virtually identical to the historical ones despite that the proposed method only uses the probability distribution of maximum daily rainfall.

  16. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    Zafar, Sumaira


    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  17. How do geomorphic effects of rainfall vary with storm type and spatial scale in a post-fire landscape?

    Kampf, Stephanie K.; Brogan, Daniel J.; Schmeer, Sarah; MacDonald, Lee H.; Nelson, Peter A.


    In post-fire landscapes, increased runoff and soil erosion can cause rapid geomorphic change. We examined how different types of rainfall events in 2013 affected hillslope-scale erosion and watershed-scale channel change in two 14-16 km2 watersheds within the 2012 High Park Fire burn area in northern Colorado, USA. The first set of rainfall events was a sequence of 12 short, spatially variable summer convective rain storms, and the second was a > 200 mm week-long storm in September. We compared rainfall characteristics, hillslope sediment yields, stream stage, and channel geometry changes from the summer storms to those from the September storm. The summer storms had a wide range of rainfall intensities, and each storm produced erosion primarily in one study watershed. The September storm rainfall had less spatial variability, covered both watersheds, and its total rainfall depth was 1.5 to 2.5 times greater than the total summer rainfall. Because rainfall intensities were highest during some summer storms, average hillslope sediment yields were higher for summer storms (6 Mg ha- 1) than for the September storm (3 Mg ha- 1). Maximum storm rainfall intensities were good predictors of hillslope sediment yield, but sediment yield correlated most strongly with total depths of rainfall exceeding 10-30 mm h- 1 intensity thresholds. The combined summer storms produced relatively small changes in mean channel bed elevation and cross section area, with no clear pattern of incision or aggradation. In contrast, the sustained rain across the entire study area during the September storm led to extensive upstream incision and downstream aggradation. Because of different spatial coverage of storms, summer storms produced more total hillslope erosion, whereas the September storm produced the greatest total channel changes. At both scales, high intensity rainfall above a threshold was responsible for inducing most of the geomorphic change.

  18. Climatic patterns and extreme rainfalls on coastal areas in Central Italy

    Bramati, M. C.; Tarragoni, C.


    In this paper we focus on the extreme values analysis to estimate the rainfall return levels for some Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coastal areas in central Italy. Two approaches are mainly considered: the first one is based on the maximum annual daily rainfall series (1-day, 2-day and 3-day) for which suitable probability distributions are fitted, whereas the second one is based on the series of peaks over annual thresholds (POT) for which the best fitting Generalized Pareto distribution is identified. Spectral analysis and appropriate tests for stationarity and homogeneity are run in order to verify the hypothesis under which the analysis performed is valid. From the density plots and the parameter estimates of the fitted distributions to the various annual maximum rainfall series we can conclude that there is a different pattern in the occurrence of extreme events for the western coast with respect to the eastern coast. Specifically, on the Tyrrhenian side extreme rainfalls are more likely to happen in correspondence of longer time spans (i.e. 3-day series) as the effect of cumulated stable rainfalls over time. On the opposite, for the Adriatic coast extremes are more frequent in shorter time spans (1-day). A vector autoregressive model is then estimated and through a causal ordering the identifying restrictions are set. The impulse response analysis shows a lag in the transmission of rainfall shocks of the central Adriatic coast to the Tyrrhenian one. This paper is prepared as a background paper to the SECOA N1.2 Report: Assessment of frequency-magnitude of extreme rainfall events and flooding. Project SECOA (Solutions for Environmental contrast in Coastal Areas) is funded by the EU Commission within the 7th Framework Programme (2007-2013).

  19. Spatial and temporal variations in rainfall over Darwin and its vicinity during different large-scale environments

    Rauniyar, Surendra P.; Walsh, Kevin J. E.


    This study analyses the regional variations in rainfall over Darwin and its vicinity due to different large-scale circulations during the Australian summer by utilizing the combination of in situ and C-band polarimetric radar rainfall data at hourly resolution. The eight phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation as defined by Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Weather Rev 132(8):1917-1932, 2004) were used as indicators of different large-scale environments. The analysis found that the large-scale forcing starts to build up from phase 4 by the reversal of low- to mid-level easterly winds to moist westerly winds, reaching a maximum in phase 5 and weakening through phases 6-7. During phases 4-6, most of the study domain experiences widespread rainfall, but with distinct spatial and temporal structures. In addition, during these phases, coastal areas near Darwin receive more rainfall in the early morning (0200-0400 LT) due to the spreading or expansion of rainfall from the Beagle Gulf, explaining the occurrence of a secondary diurnal rainfall peak over Darwin. In contrast, local-scale mechanisms (sea breezes) reinvigorate from phase 8, further strengthening through phases 1-3, when low-level easterly winds become established over Darwin producing rainfall predominately over land and island locations during the afternoon. During these phases, below average rainfall is observed over most of the radar domain, except over the Tiwi Islands in phase 2.

  20. Hydrological response variability in a small vineyard catchment (D.O. Penedès, NE Spain): effects of rainfall intensity and soil moisture conditions

    Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Concepción Ramos Martín, M.; Martínez Casasnovas, José Antonio


    The catchment of Hostalets de Pierola, a small tributary of the low course of the Anoia river (Llobregat basin), is located in the Catalan Prelitoral Depression (Penedès Depression) on Pliocene gravels and detritic Miocene substratum. The catchment size is 0.46 km2 with an average slope of 7.2 %. The main land use in the catchment is vineyards (62.3 %), with other crops and land uses with minor occupation: olive trees 4.8 %, winter cereals 9.5 %, alfalfa 8.5 %, among other). In order to carry out a research on the hydrological response and sediment transport in a representative catchment of vineyard areas in the Spanish Mediterranean region, the catchment was equipped with pluviographs to measure rainfall amount and intensity, soil moisture content sensors and a flume (HL 4" type) to measure water flow in the outlet. This water gauging allows to measure flows up to 3400 l•s-1, and it is equipped with two ultrasonic level sensors and a data-logger for data register. In parallel, monitoring of subsurface water flow of the catchment was carried out in the natural source called Can Flaquer. During the springs of 2011 and 2012 several rainfall events occurred, which allow a preliminary analysis of the hydrological response of the catchment, in comparison with rainfall characteristics (depth and intensity) and the antecedent soil moisture content. The spring events include episodes up to 27 mm, with maximum intensities of 50 mm•h-1 and peak flows up to 1100 l•s-1. The surface runoff of the catchment ceases very quickly, in a few hours after the end of rainfall events, indicating a limited role of soils in water retention and a very active percolation into the aquifer of the Pleistocene gravels. The runoff rates of the analyzed events were relatively low (between 1 - 12 %), depending on the rainfall characteristics and the antecedent soil moisture, indicating a high soil permeability. An important part of the infiltrated water follows a slow subsuperficial way to

  1. Spatial Coherence of Tropical Rainfall

    Ratan, Ram; Venugopal, V.; Sukhatme, Jai; Murtugudde, Raghu


    We characterise the spatial coherence of tropical rain and its wet spells from observations (TRMM) and assess if models (CMIP5) are able to reproduce the observed features. Based on 15 years (1998-2012) of TRMM 3B42 (V7) 1-degree, daily rainfall, we estimate the spatial decorrelation scale (e-folding distance) of rain at each location in the tropics. A ratio of zonal to meridional spatial scales clearly illustrates that while rain patterns tend to be anisotropic (ratio of 4) over tropical ocean regions (particularly over Pacific ITCZ); over land regions, rain tends to be mostly isotropic. This contrast between ocean and land appears to be reasonably well captured by CMIP5 models, although the anisotropy (ratio) over ocean is much higher than in observations. A very curious behaviour in observations is the presence of a coherent band of spatial decorrelation lengths straddling the equator, in the East Pacific, reminiscent of a double ITCZ that some models tend to simulate. A similar analysis of wet spells of different durations suggests that the decorrelation scale is largely independent of the duration of wet spell.

  2. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    M. Oscar Kisaka


    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  3. Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

    Muluneh, Alemayehu; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Keesstra, Saskia; Stroosnijder, Leo


    Extreme rainfall events have serious implications for economic sectors with a close link to climate such as agriculture and food security. This holds true in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia where communities rely on highly climate-sensitive rainfed subsistence farming for livelihoods. This study investigates changes in ten extreme rainfall indices over a period of 40 years (1970-2009) using 14 meteorological stations located in the CRV. The CRV consists of three landscape units: the valley floor, the escarpments, and the highlands all of which are considered in our data analysis. The Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June-September) seasons are also considered in the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends of the rainfall indices. The results indicated that at the annual time scale, more than half (57 %) of the stations showed significant trends in total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Only 7-35 % of stations showed significant trends, for the other rainfall indices. Spatially, the valley floor received increasing annual rainfall while the escarpments and the highlands received decreasing annual rainfall over the last 40 years. During Belg, 50 % of the stations showed significant increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in all parts of the CRV. However, most other rainfall indices during Belg showed no significant changes. During Kiremt, considering both significant and non-significant trends, almost all rainfall indices showed an increasing trend in the valley floor and a decreasing trend in the escarpment and highlands. During Belg and Kiremt, the CDD generally showed increasing tendency in the CRV.

  4. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities.

    De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo


    Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).

  5. A point rainfall model and rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis

    Yoo, Chul-Sang; Jung, Kwang-Sik [Korea University, Jochiwon(Korea); Kim, Nam-Won [Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Koyang(Korea)


    This study proposes a theoretical methodology for deriving a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency(I-D-F) curve using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. As the I-D-F curve derived by considering the model structure is dependent on the rainfall model parameters estimated using the observed first and second order statistics, it becomes less sensitive to the unusual rainfall events than that derived using the annual maxima rainfall series. This study has been applied to the rainfall data at Seoul and Incheon stations to check its applicability by comparing the two I-D-F curves from the model and the data. The results obtained are as followed. (1) As the duration becomes longer, the overlap probability increases significantly. However, its contribution to the rainfall intensity decreases a little. (2) When considering the overlap of each rainfall event, especially for large duration and return period, we could see obvious increases of rainfall intensity. This result is normal as the rainfall intensity is calculated by considering both the overlap probability and return period. Also, the overlap effect for Seoul station is found much higher than that for Incheon station, which is mainly due to the different overlap probabilities calculated using different rainfall model parameter sets. (3) As the rectangular pulses Poisson processes model used in this study cannot consider the clustering characteristics of rainfall, the derived I-D-F curves show less rainfall intensities than those from the annual maxima series. However, overall pattern of both I-D-F curves are found very similar, and the difference is believed to be overcome by use of a rainfall model with the clustering consideration. (author). 14 refs., 6 tabs., 2 figs.

  6. ITER helium ash accumulation

    Hogan, J.T.; Hillis, D.L.; Galambos, J.; Uckan, N.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Dippel, K.H.; Finken, K.H. (Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Plasmaphysik); Hulse, R.A.; Budny, R.V. (Princeton Univ., NJ (USA). Plasma Physics Lab.)


    Many studies have shown the importance of the ratio {upsilon}{sub He}/{upsilon}{sub E} in determining the level of He ash accumulation in future reactor systems. Results of the first tokamak He removal experiments have been analysed, and a first estimate of the ratio {upsilon}{sub He}/{upsilon}{sub E} to be expected for future reactor systems has been made. The experiments were carried out for neutral beam heated plasmas in the TEXTOR tokamak, at KFA/Julich. Helium was injected both as a short puff and continuously, and subsequently extracted with the Advanced Limiter Test-II pump limiter. The rate at which the He density decays has been determined with absolutely calibrated charge exchange spectroscopy, and compared with theoretical models, using the Multiple Impurity Species Transport (MIST) code. An analysis of energy confinement has been made with PPPL TRANSP code, to distinguish beam from thermal confinement, especially for low density cases. The ALT-II pump limiter system is found to exhaust the He with maximum exhaust efficiency (8 pumps) of {approximately}8%. We find 1<{upsilon}{sub He}/{upsilon}{sub E}<3.3 for the database of cases analysed to date. Analysis with the ITER TETRA systems code shows that these values would be adequate to achieve the required He concentration with the present ITER divertor He extraction system.

  7. Physical simulation of urban rainfall infiltration

    LI Jie; ZENG Bing; WANG Yan-xia; SHEN Lei


    To meet the demand of urban rainwater integrated management, we designed and complemented a physical simulation experimental system of urban rainfall infiltration regulation parameters. We discuss the feasibility of quantitative regulations of urban underlying surface rainfall infiltration conditions and a practical application of a simulated experimental system. In a comprehensive analysis of the composition of an effective rainwater harvesting system and selection of water storage material, we simulated the major parameters of an experimental area rainfall, soil moisture and water storage capacity by providing an effective regulation of the experimental area runoff coefficient, obtained from basic data.

  8. Detecting Rainfall Onset Using Sky Images

    Dev, Soumyabrata; Lee, Yee Hui; Winkler, Stefan


    Ground-based sky cameras (popularly known as Whole Sky Imagers) are increasingly used now-a-days for continuous monitoring of the atmosphere. These imagers have higher temporal and spatial resolutions compared to conventional satellite images. In this paper, we use ground-based sky cameras to detect the onset of rainfall. These images contain additional information about cloud coverage and movement and are therefore useful for accurate rainfall nowcast. We validate our results using rain gauge measurement recordings and achieve an accuracy of 89% for correct detection of rainfall onset.

  9. An integrated approach for identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall events and estimating IDF curves in Southern Ontario, Canada: Incorporating radar observations

    Paixao, Edson; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader; Shephard, Mark W.; Auld, Heather; Klaassen, Joan; Smith, Graham


    Reliable extreme rainfall information is required for many applications including infrastructure design, management of water resources, and planning for weather-related emergencies in urban and rural areas. In this study, in situ TBRG sub-daily rainfall rate observations have been supplemented with weather radar information to better capture the spatial and temporal variability of heavy rainfall events regionally. Comparison of extreme rainfall events show that the absolute differences between the rain gauge and radar generally increase with increasing rainfall. Better agreement between the two observations is found when comparing the collocated radar and TBRG annual maximum values. The median difference is <18% for the annual maximum rainfall values ⩽50 mm. The median of difference of IDF estimates obtained through the Gumbel distribution for 10-year return period values computed from TBRG and radar are also found to be 4%. The overall results of this analysis demonstrates the potential value of incorporating remotely sensed radar with traditional point source TBRG network observations to provide additional insight on extreme rainfall events regionally, especially in terms of identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall. The radar observations are particularly useful in areas where there is insufficient TBRG station density to statistically capture the extreme rainfall events.

  10. How Sensitive is Large-scale Flood Inundation to Rainfall Variability?: Water Balance Analysis Based on Basin-wide Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Simulation

    Sayama, T.; Tatebe, Y.; Tanaka, S.


    The 2011 large-scale flood over the Chao Phraya River (CPR) basin resulted in the worst economic flood damage to Thailand. The flooding was induced mainly by unprecedented rainfall from five typhoons and tropical depressions between May and October. The total rainfall in the six months during the monsoon season was approximately 1,400 mm, while the average monsoon-season rainfall in this region is about 1,000 mm, and previous large-scale floods were caused by a total rainfall of approximately 1,200 mm. The interpretation of the additional 200 mm of rainfall compared to past events can greatly affect the understanding of the 2011 flood disaster. Up until now, the magnitude of the flood hazard itself has received little attention due to the seemingly insignificant rainfall variability. Instead, the increase of societal vulnerability, such as accumulation of assets in flood-prone areas, has been more highlighted. Nevertheless, without understanding the impact of the rainfall variability on flood runoff and inundation, essential characteristics of the flood disaster may be misinterpreted. In this study, we focused on the hydrologic characteristics of the flood based on 52 year-long inundation simulation. We applied a 2D Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to the entire CPR basin. After the model validation with river discharges and water levels, remote sensing inundation extents, and peak inundation water depths for 2011, we conducted water balance analysis from the simulation results to investigate the relationship among rainfall, runoff and inundation volumes. The simulation, by taking two major dams into account, found that 131 mm (9%) of the total rainfall (1,400 mm) may have flooded at the peak. The estimated sensitivity of flood inundation to rainfall (dF/dP) was 0.25. This suggests that the additional 200 mm of rainfall may have resulted in a 50 mm, or 8.2 billion m3, increase in flood inundation volume. It accounts for more than 60 % of the total storage

  11. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano


    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  12. Sensitivity of urban rainfall to anthropogenic heat flux: A numerical experiment

    Holst, Christopher Claus; Tam, Chi-Yung; Chan, Johnny C. L.


    In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of local precipitation statistics to surface heat fluxes in an urban subdomain in the Pearl River Delta region, which is situated along the coast of south China. By conducting simulations of a past record-breaking rainfall event with a cloud-resolving model, we found that rainfall rates and the spatial distribution of accumulated rainfall are very sensitive to imposed urban surface heat fluxes. Diagnostics of the planetary boundary layer show increasing fluctuations of turbulence and buoyant turbulence production with increasing surface heat emission, causing increased near-surface mixing and convection. Heavy precipitation rates show a higher sensitivity than lighter rates. The extreme tail of the distribution is hence more affected. This study serves as an example of how sensitive the magnitude of local high impact weather phenomena can be to local forcing.

  13. Spatial estimation of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its dependence on rainfall severity

    Destro, Elisa; Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Zoccatelli, Davide; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco


    Forecasting the occurrence of landslides and debris flows (collectively termed 'debris flows' hereinafter) is fundamental for issuing hazard warnings, and focuses largely on rainfall as a triggering agent. Debris flow forecasting relies very often on the identification of combinations of depth and duration of rainfall - rainfall thresholds - that trigger widespread debris flows. Rainfall estimation errors related to the sparse nature of raingauge data are enhanced in case of convective rainfall events characterized by limited spatial extent. Such errors have been shown to cause underestimation of the rainfall thresholds and, thus, less efficient forecasts of debris flows occurrence. This work examines the spatial organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall around the debris flow initiation points using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data for a set of short duration (debris-flow triggering rainfall events that occurred in the study area between 2005 and 2014. The selected events are among the most severe in the region during this period and triggered a total of 99 debris flows that caused significant damage to people and infrastructures. We show that the spatial rainfall organisation depends on the severity (measured via the estimated return time-RT) of the debris flow-triggering rainfall. For more frequent events (RTdebris flow location coincides with a local minimum, whereas for less frequent events (RT>20 yrs) the triggering rainfall presents a local peak corresponding to the debris flow initiation point. Dependence of these features on rainfall duration is quite limited. The characteristics of the spatial rainfall organisation are exploited to understand the performances and results of three different rainfall interpolation techniques: nearest neighbour (NN), inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK). We show that the features of the spatial organization of the debris flow triggering rainfall explain the biases in the

  14. Rainfall mechanisms for the dominant rainfall mode over Zimbabwe relative to ENSO and/or IODZM.

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mukwada, Geoffrey


    Zimbabwe's homogeneous precipitation regions are investigated by means of principal component analysis (PCA) with regard to the underlying processes related to ENSO and/or Indian Ocean Dipole zonal mode (IODZM). Station standardized precipitation index rather than direct rainfall values represent the data matrix used in the PCA. The results indicate that the country's rainfall is highly homogeneous and is dominantly described by the first principal mode (PC1). This leading PC can be used to represent the major rainfall patterns affecting the country, both spatially and temporarily. The current practice of subdividing the country into the two seasonal rainfall forecast zones becomes irrelevant. Partial correlation analysis shows that PC1 is linked more to the IODZM than to the traditional ENSO which predominantly demonstrates insignificant association with PC1. The pure IODZM composite is linked to the most intense rainfall suppression mechanisms, while the pure El Niño composite is linked to rainfall enhancing mechanisms.

  15. Detection of Spatio-temporal variations of rainfall and temperature extremes over India

    Hari, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.


    implemented. The results from this study exhibit the observable changes in the rainfall extreme events that occurred over India in past century. The country experienced large spatial heterogeneity of all the four rainfall variables, even in the meteorologically homogeneous regions. The correlation analyses show that the maximum grids are having positive correlation, however for the duration-frequency, a significant correlation is observed in few grids, with most of the grids showing no correlation. The spatial variation of RL shows spatial heterogeneity and trend analyses exhibit lack of uniformity throughout India. The change in RL shows significant positive change in mainly during past 50 years. The possible reason could be urbanization and change in climate variables. Hence for further investigation, this analysis will be associated with the temperature extremes data throughout India.




    Oct 13, 2011 ... annual total amount, and frequency of fall, kinetic energy and ... annual rainfall increases from the northern frontier of the region ... Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Lagos for the ..... Estimation for Australia's Tropics. Aust. J. Soil.

  17. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...


    As noted by the Bureau of Meteorology, Canada, to examine whether such ... their local climate, a threshold considered extreme in one part of Australia could be ... (extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events.

  18. Rainfall Fields: Estimation, Analysis, and Prediction

    The problem of predicting rainfall and its characteristics has always been one of overriding concern for both hydrologists and meteorologists. Yet, for decades the two disciplines have pursued its solution using radically different techniques and communicating relatively little about recent advances in understanding rainfall processes, new technology, and improvements in predictive skill.Meteorologists tend to publish in journals that deal almost exclusively with atmospheric processes, while hydrologists prefer media which focus on the Earth's surface and below. Meteorologists tend to concentrate on developing and improving numerical hydrodynamical models of the atmospheric processes that generate rainfall. Their approach is essentially to solve an initial value problem where the observed three-dimensional state of the atmosphere is input to the model and the rainfall is one of the output parameters.

  19. Ensemble climate projections of mean and extreme rainfall over Vietnam

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.


    A systematic ensemble high resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam has been performed using the PRECIS model developed by the Hadley Center in UK. A 5 member subset of the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) of the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project were simulated and analyzed. The PRECIS model simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 25 km for the baseline period 1961-1990 and a future climate period 2061-2090 under scenario A1B. The results of model simulations show that the model was able to reproduce the mean state of climate over Vietnam when compared to observations. The annual cycles and seasonal averages of precipitation over different sub-regions of Vietnam show the ability of the model in also reproducing the observed peak and magnitude of monthly rainfall. The climate extremes of precipitation were also fairly well captured. Projections of future climate show both increases and decreases in the mean climate over different regions of Vietnam. The analyses of future extreme rainfall using the STARDEX precipitation indices show an increase in 90th percentile precipitation (P90p) over the northern provinces (15-25%) and central highland (5-10%) and over southern Vietnam (up to 5%). The total number of wet days (Prcp) indicates a decrease of about 5-10% all over Vietnam. Consequently, an increase in the wet day rainfall intensity (SDII), is likely inferring that the projected rainfall would be much more severe and intense which have the potential to cause flooding in some regions. Risks due to extreme drought also exist in other regions where the number of wet days decreases. In addition, the maximum 5 day consecutive rainfall (R5d) increases by 20-25% over northern Vietnam but decreases in a similar range over the central and southern Vietnam. These results have strong implications for the management water resources, agriculture, bio diversity and economy and serve as some useful findings to be

  20. Characterizing land surface phenology and responses to rainfall in the Sahara desert

    Yan, Dong; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Yu, Yunyue; Guo, Wei; Hanan, Niall P.


    Land surface phenology (LSP) in the Sahara desert is poorly understood due to the difficulty in detecting subtle variations in vegetation greenness. This study examined the spatial and temporal patterns of LSP and its responses to rainfall seasonality in the Sahara desert. We first generated daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from half-hourly observations acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation series of geostationary satellites from 2006 to 2012. The EVI2 time series was used to retrieve LSP based on the Hybrid Piecewise Logistic Model. We further investigated the associations of spatial and temporal patterns in LSP with those in rainfall seasonality derived from the daily rainfall time series of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission. Results show that the spatial shifts in the start of the vegetation growing season generally follow the rainy season onset that is controlled by the summer rainfall regime in the southern Sahara desert. In contrast, the end of the growing season significantly lags the end of the rainy season without any significant dependence. Vegetation growing season can unfold during the dry seasons after onset is triggered during rainy seasons. Vegetation growing season can be as long as 300 days or more in some areas and years. However, the EVI2 amplitude and accumulation across the Sahara region was very low indicating sparse vegetation as expected in desert regions. EVI2 amplitude and accumulated EVI2 strongly depended on rainfall received during the growing season and the preceding dormancy period.

  1. Rainfall interception at the intrastorm scale: insights from a mature coniferous forest

    Iida, S. I.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Shimizu, A.; Shimizu, T.; Tamai, K.; Nobuhiro, T.; Kabeya, N.; Noguchi, S.; Sawano, S.; Araki, M.


    Canopy interception of rainfall is a mature subject. Nonetheless, the canopy interception process is inadequately understood at the intrastorm scale. To help fill our void of knowledge of intrastorm canopy interception, we employed detailed and fine-scale temporal measurements of meteorological and hydrological measurements from a mature coniferous forest in Japan. Throughfall was collected in a total area of 4 m2 and stemflow was measured for 14 trees of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don), and hourly intensity of interception loss was calculated as the difference between hourly intensity of gross rainfall and the sum of intensities of throughfall and stemflow. We specifically compared differences in canopy interception between the first and second halves of rainfall. Our results indicated that the interception intensity was larger at the initial stage of rainfall event and that interception intensity does not depend solely on intensity of gross rainfall. The accumulated amounts of interception intensity during the first half were quite larger than those of the second half. We found the decreases in the accumulated interception intensity caused by the higher mean wind speed for only the first half. These findings strongly suggested that water storage on tree surface is the single most important factor affecting the interception loss at this site, outweighing losses by wet canopy evaporation and splash during rain. This study adds insights into intrastorm interception dynamics which are necessary to better model and forecast interception losses at the watershed scale. Publication note: This presentation is based on the following submitted article: Iida, S., Levia, D.F., Shimizu, A., Shimizu, T., Tamai, K., Nobuhiro, T., Kabeya, N., Noguchi, S., Sawano, S. and Araki, M. Intrastorm scale rainfall interception dynamics in a mature coniferous forest stand.

  2. Improving radar rainfall estimation by merging point rainfall measurements within a model combination framework

    Hasan, Mohammad Mahadi; Sharma, Ashish; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Johnson, Fiona; Seed, Alan


    While the value of correcting raw radar rainfall estimates using simultaneous ground rainfall observations is well known, approaches that use the complete record of both gauge and radar measurements to provide improved rainfall estimates are much less common. We present here two new approaches for estimating radar rainfall that are designed to address known limitations in radar rainfall products by using a relatively long history of radar reflectivity and ground rainfall observations. The first of these two approaches is a radar rainfall estimation algorithm that is nonparametric by construction. Compared to the traditional gauge adjusted parametric relationship between reflectivity (Z) and ground rainfall (R), the suggested new approach is based on a nonparametric radar rainfall estimation method (NPR) derived using the conditional probability distribution of reflectivity and gauge rainfall. The NPR method is applied to the densely gauged Sydney Terrey Hills radar network, where it reduces the RMSE in rainfall estimates by 10%, with improvements observed at 90% of the gauges. The second of the two approaches is a method to merge radar and spatially interpolated gauge measurements. The two sources of information are combined using a dynamic combinatorial algorithm with weights that vary in both space and time. The weight for any specific period is calculated based on the error covariance matrix that is formulated from the radar and spatially interpolated rainfall errors of similar reflectivity periods in a cross-validation setting. The combination method reduces the RMSE by about 20% compared to the traditional Z-R relationship method, and improves estimates compared to spatially interpolated point measurements in sparsely gauged areas.

  3. Investigating the mechanisms of diurnal rainfall variability over Peninsular Malaysia using the non-hydrostatic regional climate model

    Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz; Tangang, Fredolin; Chung, Jing Xiang; Juneng, Liew; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Takayabu, Izuru


    This study aims to provide a basis for understanding the mechanisms of diurnal rainfall variability over Peninsular Malaysia by utilising the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM). The present day climate simulations at 5 km resolution over a period of 20 years, from 1st December 1989 to 31st January 2010 were conducted using the six-hourly Japanese re-analysis 55 years (JRA-55) data and monthly Centennial in situ Observation Based Estimates (COBE) of sea surface temperature as lateral and lower boundary conditions. Despite some biases, the NHRCM performed reasonably well in simulating diurnal rainfall cycles over Peninsular Malaysia. During inter-monsoon periods, the availability of atmospheric moisture played a major role in modulating afternoon rainfall maxima over the foothills of the Titiwangsa mountain range (FT sub-region). During the southwest monsoon, a lack of atmospheric moisture inhibits the occurrence of convective rainfall over the FT sub-region. The NHRCM was also able to simulate the suppression of the diurnal rainfall cycle over the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (EC sub-region) and afternoon rainfall maximum over the Peninsular Malaysia inland-valley (IN sub-region) area during the northeast monsoon. Over the EC sub-region, daytime radiational warming of the top of clouds enhanced atmospheric stability, thus reducing afternoon rainfall. On the other hand, night-time radiational cooling from cloud tops decreases atmospheric stability and increases nocturnal rainfall. In the early morning, the rainfall maximum was confined to the EC sub-region due to the retardation of the north-easterly monsoonal wind by the land breeze and orographic blocking. However, in the afternoon, superimposition of the sea breeze on the north-easterly monsoonal wind strengthened the north-easterly wind, thus causing the zone of convection to expand further inland.

  4. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter


    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value to the aforementioned emerging fields in current and future applications, but also to the analysis of integrated water systems.

  5. Humidity Profiles' Effect On The Relationship Between Ice Scattering And Rainfall In Microwave Rainfall Retrievals

    Petkovic, V.; Kummerow, C. D.


    Currently, satellite microwave rainfall retrievals base their algorithm on an observed global average of the relationship between high frequency brightness temperature (Tb) depression and rainfall rate. This makes them very sensitive to differences in the ratio of ice to liquid in the cloud, resulting in regional biases of rainfall estimates. To address this problem we investigate how the environmental conditions that precede raining systems influence the ice to rainfall relationship. The vertical profile of humidity was found to be a key variable in predicting this ratio. We found that dry over moist air conditions are favorable for developing intense, well organized systems such as MCSs in West Africa and the Sahel, characterized by strong Tb depressions and amounts of ice aloft significantly above the globally observed average value. As a consequence, microwave retrieval algorithms misinterpret these systems assigning them unrealistically high rainfall rates. The opposite is true in the Amazon region, where observed raining systems exhibit very little ice while producing high rainfall rates. These regional differences correspond well with a map of radar to radiometer biases of rainfall. Deeper understanding of the influence of environmental conditions on this ice to rain ratio provides a foundation for mapping a global ice-scattering to rainfall rate relationship that will improve satellite microwave rainfall retrievals and our understanding of cloud microphysics globally.

  6. A method for combining passive microwave and infrared rainfall observations

    Kummerow, Christian; Giglio, Louis


    Because passive microwave instruments are confined to polar-orbiting satellites, rainfall estimates must interpolate across long time periods, during which no measurements are available. In this paper the authors discuss a technique that allows one to partially overcome the sampling limitations by using frequent infrared observations from geosynchronous platforms. To accomplish this, the technique compares all coincident microwave and infrared observations. From each coincident pair, the infrared temperature threshold is selected that corresponds to an area equal to the raining area observed in the microwave image. The mean conditional rainfall rate as determined from the microwave image is then assigned to pixels in the infrared image that are colder than the selected threshold. The calibration is also applied to a fixed threshold of 235 K for comparison with established infrared techniques. Once a calibration is determined, it is applied to all infrared images. Monthly accumulations for both methods are then obtained by summing rainfall from all available infrared images. Two examples are used to evaluate the performance of the technique. The first consists of a one-month period (February 1988) over Darwin, Australia, where good validation data are available from radar and rain gauges. For this case it was found that the technique approximately doubled the rain inferred by the microwave method alone and produced exceptional agreement with the validation data. The second example involved comparisons with atoll rain gauges in the western Pacific for June 1989. Results here are overshadowed by the fact that the hourly infrared estimates from established techniques, by themselves, produced very good correlations with the rain gauges. The calibration technique was not able to improve upon these results.

  7. Multivariate analysis applied to monthly rainfall over Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

    Brito, Thábata T.; Oliveira-Júnior, José F.; Lyra, Gustavo B.; Gois, Givanildo; Zeri, Marcelo


    Spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall were identified over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The proximity to the coast and the complex topography create great diversity of rainfall over space and time. The dataset consisted of time series (1967-2013) of monthly rainfall over 100 meteorological stations. Clustering analysis made it possible to divide the stations into six groups (G1, G2, G3, G4, G5 and G6) with similar rainfall spatio-temporal patterns. A linear regression model was applied to a time series and a reference. The reference series was calculated from the average rainfall within a group, using nearby stations with higher correlation (Pearson). Based on t-test (p < 0.05) all stations had a linear spatiotemporal trend. According to the clustering analysis, the first group (G1) contains stations located over the coastal lowlands and also over the ocean facing area of Serra do Mar (Sea ridge), a 1500 km long mountain range over the coastal Southeastern Brazil. The second group (G2) contains stations over all the state, from Serra da Mantiqueira (Mantiqueira Mountains) and Costa Verde (Green coast), to the south, up to stations in the Northern parts of the state. Group 3 (G3) contains stations in the highlands over the state (Serrana region), while group 4 (G4) has stations over the northern areas and the continent-facing side of Serra do Mar. The last two groups were formed with stations around Paraíba River (G5) and the metropolitan area of the city of Rio de Janeiro (G6). The driest months in all regions were June, July and August, while November, December and January were the rainiest months. Sharp transitions occurred when considering monthly accumulated rainfall: from January to February, and from February to March, likely associated with episodes of "veranicos", i.e., periods of 4-15 days of duration with no rainfall.

  8. Climatology of observed rainfall in Southeast France at the Regional Climate Model scales

    Froidurot, Stéphanie; Molinié, Gilles; Diedhiou, Arona


    In order to provide convenient data to assess rainfall simulated by Regional Climate Models, a spatial database (hereafter called K-REF) has been designed. This database is used to examine climatological features of rainfall in Southeast France, a study region characterized by two mountain ranges of comparable altitude (the Cévennes and the Alps foothill) on both sides of the Rhône valley. Hourly records from 1993 to 2013 have been interpolated to a 0.1° × 0.1° latitude-longitude regular grid and accumulated over 3-h periods in K-REF. The assessment of K-REF relatively to the SAFRAN daily rainfall reanalysis indicates consistent patterns and magnitudes between the two datasets even though K-REF fields are smoother. A multi-scale analysis of the occurrence and non-zero intensity of rainfall is performed and shows that the maps of the 50th and 95th percentiles of 3- and 24-h rain intensity highlight different patterns. The maxima of the 50th and 95th percentiles are located over plain and mountainous areas respectively. Moreover, the location of these maxima is not the same for the 3- and 24-h intensities. To understand these differences between median and intense rainfall on the one hand and between the 3- and 24-h rainfall on the other hand, we analyze the statistical distributions and the space-time structure of occurrence and intensity of the 3-h rainfall in two classes of days, defined as median and intense. This analysis illustrates the influence of two factors on the triggering and the intensity of rain in the region: the solar cycle and the orography. The orographic forcing appears to be quite different for the two ranges of the domain and is much more pronounced over the Cévennes.

  9. Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

    Bambang Dwi Dasanto


    Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

  10. Radar Rainfall Estimates for Modeling Flood Response to Orographic Thunderstorms in the Central Appalachians

    Hicks, N. S.; Smith, J. A.


    We examine the hydrometeorology and hydrology of extreme flooding from orographic convective systems in the central Appalachian region. Analyses of flood response are based on rainfall and discharge observations for major flood events along the western margin of the central Appalachians (16-17 May 1996, 18-19 July 1996, 30-31 July 1996, 28-29 June 1998, and 7-8 July 2001). A distributed hydrologic model is used to access flood response in Appalachian basins with diverse physiographic properties. High-resolution (1 km, 5 minutes) rainfall fields derived from WSR-88D radars in Charleston, West Virginia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania are used for model analyses. Cloud-to-ground lightning and the IFLOWs raingage network provide additional information for hydrometeorological analyses. Flood response is viewed in the context of land surface hydrologic processes and frequency of extreme precipitation events. Orographic convective systems in the Appalachians have produced some of the largest rainfall accumulations in the world for time intervals less than 6 hours and some of the largest unit discharge flood peaks for the U.S. east of the Mississippi River. The 18 July 1942 Smethport, Pennsylvania storm, for example, produced the world record rainfall accumulation of 780 mm in 4.5 hours.

  11. Rainfall Effects on Marine Paleoproductivity in La Paz Bay, Mexico through the Middle and Late Holocene

    Ricaurte-villota, C.; Gonzalez-Yajimovich, O.


    The effect of rainfall on the paleoproductivity of Bahía de la Paz, Mexico, based on geochemical proxies of mass accumulation rates of biogenic silica, organic carbon and carbonates (paleoproductivity), and terrigenous content and titanium (rainfall) was reconstructed from two cores (NH01-15MC1b and NH01-15GC3) recovered from Alfonso Basin. The records indicate that marine productivity in the middle and late Holocene (last 5.8 ky) decreased synchronically with a decrease in rainfall throughout the region. The records also indicate greater variability between 5.5 and 2.7 ky. Periods of less rainfall correspond to a decrease of organic carbon and biogenic opal, probably caused by less fertilization in the photic zone due to a possible weakening of the cyclonic gyre that has been documented within the bay. The gyre provides nutrients from intermediate depths to the surface layer during periods of warmer temperatures. More carbonate content during times of less productivity could indicate less dissolution (changes in preservation). This is because a lower organic carbon flux results in less dissolution of CaCO3 since this lowers the oxygen demand to degrade the carbon. However, periods of higher carbonate content also coincide with epochs of more rainfall, which could indicate a more tropical influence.

  12. Seasonality on the rainfall partitioning of a fast-growing tree plantation under Mediterranean conditions

    molina, antonio; llorens, pilar; biel, carme


    Studies on rainfall interception in fast-growing tree plantations are less numerous than those in natural forests. Trees in these plantations are regularly distributed, and the canopy cover is clumped but changes quickly, resulting on high variability in the volume and composition of water that reach the soil. In addition, irrigation supply is normally required in semiarid areas to get optimal wood production; consequently, knowing rainfall interception and its yearly evolution is crucial to manage the irrigation scheme properly. This work studies the rainfall partitioning seasonality in a cherry tree (Prunus avium) plantation orientated to timber production under Mediterranean conditions. The monitoring design started on March 2012 and consists of a set of 58 throughfall tipping buckets randomly distributed (based on a 1x1 m2 grid) in a plot of 128 m2 with 8 trees. Stemflow is measured in all the trees with 2 tipping buckets and 6 accumulative collectors. Canopy cover is regularly measured throughout the study period, in leaf and leafless periods, by mean of sky-orientated photographs taken 50 cm above the center of each tipping bucket. Others tree biometrics are also measured such as diameter and leaf area index. Meteorological conditions are measured at 2 m above the forest cover. This work presents the first analyses describing the rainfall partitioning and its dependency on canopy cover, distance to tree and meteorological conditions. The modified Gash' model for rainfall interception in dispersed vegetation is also preliminary evaluated.

  13. Markov models for accumulating mutations

    Beerenwinkel, Niko


    We introduce and analyze a waiting time model for the accumulation of genetic changes. The continuous time conjunctive Bayesian network is defined by a partially ordered set of mutations and by the rate of fixation of each mutation. The partial order encodes constraints on the order in which mutations can fixate in the population, shedding light on the mutational pathways underlying the evolutionary process. We study a censored version of the model and derive equations for an EM algorithm to perform maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. We also show how to select the maximum likelihood poset. The model is applied to genetic data from different cancers and from drug resistant HIV samples, indicating implications for diagnosis and treatment.

  14. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de


    Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge data.

  15. Synoptic Analysis of Heavy Rainfall and Flood Observed in Izmir on 20 May 2015 Using Radar and Satellite Images

    Avsar, Ercument


    In this study, a meteorological analysis is conducted on the sudden and heavy rainfall that occurred in Izmir on May 20, 2015. The barotropic model that is observed in upper carts is shown in detail. We can access the data of and analyze the type, severity and amount of many meteorological parameters using the meteorological radars that form a remote sensing system. The one field that uses the radars most intensively is rainfall. Images from the satellite and radar systems are used in the meteorological analysis of the heavy rainfall that occurred in Izmir on 20 May 2015, and the development of the system that led to this rainfall is shown. In this study, data received from Bornova Automatic Meteorological Observation Station (OMGI), which is under the management of Meteorology General Directorate (MGM), Izmir 2. Regional Directorate; satellite images; Radar PPI (Plan Position Indicator) and Radar MAX (Maximum Display) images are evaluated. In addition, synoptic situation, outputs of numerical estimation models, indices calculated from Skew T Log-P diagram are shown. All these results are mapped and analyzed. At the end of these analyses, it is found that this sudden rainfall had developed according to the frontal system motion. A barotropic model occurred on the day of the rainfall over the Aegean Region. As a result of the rainfall that happened in Izmir at 12.00 UTC (Universal Coordinated Time), the May month rainfall record for the last 64 years is achieved with a rainfall amount of 67.7 mm per meter square. Keywords: Izmir, barotropic model, heavy rainfall, radar, synoptic analysis

  16. On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas. Part 1; Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar Aboard TRMM

    Shepherd, J. Marshell; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)


    A novel approach is introduced to correlating urbanization and rainfall modification. This study represents one of the first published attempts (possibly the first) to identify and quantify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Previous investigations successfully used rain gauge networks and around-based radar to investigate this phenomenon but still encountered difficulties due to limited, specialized measurements and separation of topographic and other influences. Three years of mean monthly rainfall rates derived from the first space-based rainfall radar, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of data at half-degree latitude resolution enables identification of rainfall patterns around major metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Preliminary results reveal an average increase of 5.6% in monthly rainfall rates (relative to a mean upwind CONTROL area) over the metropolis but an average increase of approx. 28%, in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis. Some portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates found in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116% and were generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are quite consistent studies of St. Louis (e.g' METROMEX) and Chicago almost two decades ago and more recent studies in the Atlanta and Mexico City areas.

  17. Responses of soil water percolation to dynamic interactions among rainfall, antecedent moisture and season in a forest site

    Lai, Xiaoming; Liao, Kaihua; Feng, Huihui; Zhu, Qing


    Knowledge of soil water percolation below the rooting zone and its responses to the dynamic interactions of different factors are important for the control of non-point source pollution. Based on 3600 scenarios in Hydrus-1D simulation, this study revealed the integrated effects of rainfall characteristics (rainfall amount, maximum rainfall intensity or MRI, time distribution characteristics of rainfall or TDC), antecedent moisture and the season on deep percolation (DP) at a forest site in Taihu Lake Basin, China. Results showed that Hydrus-1D model can well simulate the soil water dynamics at this site. Antecedent moisture had the greatest relative contribution to DP (85.7%), followed by rainfall amount (10.9%) and MRI (3.4%). As the antecedent moisture increased, the relative contribution of the season on DP increased from 0.0% to 16.4%. In comparison, that of MRI decreased from 58.7% to 38.5% and that of rainfall amount followed a bell shape pattern (greatest when the antecedent moisture was 0.26 m3 m-3). The relative contribution of antecedent moisture to DP in summer was the greatest (87.8%), while that of the rainfall was the least. The TDC influenced DP by affecting the responses of DP to other factors. When the rainfall amount was ⩾80 mm and the antecedent moisture content was ⩾0.34 m3 m-3, effect of TDC on DP could be observed. The DP of TDC_B (rainfall intensity linearly increased with time) was the lowest, while that of TDC_E (rainfall intensity kept constant with time) was the greatest. Findings of this study have practical significance for investigating the water and pollutant transport in vadose zone.

  18. Prediction of Tropical Rainfall by Local Phase Space Reconstruction.

    Waelbroeck, H.; López-Pea, R.; Morales, T.; Zertuche, F.


    The authors propose a weather prediction model based on a local reconstruction of the dynamics in phase space, using an 11-year dataset from Tlaxcala, Mexico. A vector in phase space corresponds to T consecutive days of data; the best predictions are found for T = 14. The prediction for the next day, x0 fL(x0), is based on a local reconstruction of the dynamical map f in an ball centered at x0. The high dimensionality of the phase space implies a large optimal value of , so that the number of points in an ball is sufficient to reconstruct the local map. The local approximation fL f is therefore not very good and the prediction skill drops off quickly at first, with a timescale of 2 days. On the other hand, the authors find useful skill in the prediction of 10-day rainfall accumulations, which reflects the persistence of weather patterns. The mean-squared error in the prediction of the rainfall anomaly for the year 1992 was 64% of the variance, and the early beginning of the rain season was correctly predicted.

  19. Prediction model for peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

    Vathsala, H.; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.


    In this paper we discuss a data mining application for predicting peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and propose an algorithm that combine data mining and statistical techniques. We select likely predictors based on association rules that have the highest confidence levels. We then cluster the selected predictors to reduce their dimensions and use cluster membership values for classification. We derive the predictors from local conditions in southern India, including mean sea level pressure, wind speed, and maximum and minimum temperatures. The global condition variables include southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole conditions. The algorithm predicts rainfall in five categories: Flood, Excess, Normal, Deficit and Drought. We use closed itemset mining, cluster membership calculations and a multilayer perceptron function in the algorithm to predict monsoon rainfall in peninsular India. Using Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology data, we found the prediction accuracy of our proposed approach to be exceptionally good.

  20. Remote sensing of rainfall for debris-flow hazard assessment

    Wieczorek, G.F.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; ,


    Recent advances in remote sensing of rainfall provide more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Four case studies of abundant debris flows over relatively small areas triggered during intense rainstorms are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. Three examples with rainfall estimates from National Weather Service Doppler radar and one example with rainfall estimates from infrared imagery from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite are compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and with landslide distribution. The advantages and limitations of using remote sensing of rainfall for landslide hazard analysis are discussed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

  1. Temporal Variation of Rainfall Intensity, Rainfall Partitioning and its Correlation with Meteorological Elements of Eastern India

    Tripathi, P.; Chaturvedi, A.


    Rainfall plays a vital role in Indian agriculture hence economy of the country, but very crucial and risky due to its erratic/ unpredictable behavior and uneven distribution. Since monsoonal vagaries in eastern India are very frequent hence involve a great risk in Argil. Production and quality of atmosphere at desired level. Though prediction of onset of monsoon with total quantum of rainfall is available through different agencies but still not accurate and not in consonance of observed behavior. Therefore, surface weather data of meteorological elements needs to be critically examined for prediction of onset of monsoon, rainfall rate and its variability with space and time and strategy to cope the uncertainty of risk (drought and flood etc) needs to be evolved. In the present study an analysis of rainfall of Eastern India (Eastern U.P., Bihar and Jharkhand) has been made for rainfall partitioning, rate of rainfall and its variation with space and time. A location specific six parameter model were developed with multiple correlation technique to predict the medium and long range rainfall forecast and found 65% accurate for long range and 79% accurate to medium range. This will not only help to predict the accurate rainfall but also provides a clue for assessment of quality of rainfall under different aerosol levels of atmosphere which ultimately led to link designers with radio wave propagation. In addition, correlation of physical variables of atmosphere like vapor pressure deficit, dew point and relative humidity were also made with quantum of rainfall, rate of rainfall and its quantitative characteristics in the study area as to understand the mechanism behavior of atmosphere for space research.

  2. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.


    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results

  3. A multiplier-based method of generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfalls

    Ndiritu, J. G.

    Catchment modelling for water resources assessment is still mainly based on rain gauge measurements as these are more easily available and cover longer periods than radar and satellite-based measurements. Rain gauges however measure the rain falling on an extremely small proportion of the catchment and the areal rainfall obtained from these point measurements are consequently substantially uncertain. These uncertainties in areal rainfall estimation are generally ignored and the need to assess their impact on catchment modelling and water resources assessment is therefore imperative. A method that stochastically generates daily areal rainfall from point rainfall using multiplicative perturbations as a means of dealing with these uncertainties is developed and tested on the Berg catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa. The differences in areal rainfall obtained by alternately omitting some of the rain gauges are used to obtain a population of plausible multiplicative perturbations. Upper bounds on the applicable perturbations are set to prevent the generation of unrealistically large rainfall and to obtain unbiased stochastic rainfall. The perturbations within the set bounds are then fitted into probability density functions to stochastically generate the perturbations to impose on areal rainfall. By using 100 randomly-initialized calibrations of the AWBM catchment model and Sequent Peak Analysis, the effects of incorporating areal rainfall uncertainties on storage-yield-reliability analysis are assessed. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty is found to reduce the required storage by up to 20%. Rainfall uncertainty also increases flow-duration variability considerably and reduces the median flow-duration values by an average of about 20%.

  4. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities

    De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Coly, Adrien; Yeshitela, Kumelachew; Kombe, Wilbard; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou


    The intensity-duration-frequency curves are used in hydrology to express in a synthetic way, the link between the maximum rainfall height h and a generic duration d of a rainfall event, fixed a given return period T. Generally, IDF curves can be characterized by a bi-parameter power law: h(d,T) = a(T)dn where a(T), and n are the parameters that have to be estimated through a probabilistic approach. An intensity-duration-frequency analysis starts by gathering time series record of different durations and extracting annual extremes for each duration. The annual extreme data are then fitted by a probability distribution. The present study, carried out within the FP7-ENV-2010 CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for five case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania), Douala (Cameroon), Ouagadouogou (Burkina Faso) and Saint Louis (Senegal). The probability distribution chosen to fit the annual extreme data is the classic Gumbel distribution. However, for the case studies, only the maximum annual daily rainfall heights are available. Therefore, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1h, 3h, 6h, 12h), it is required to develop disaggregation techniques of the collected data, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties equal to the recorded data. The daily rainfalls were disaggregated using two models: short-time intensity disaggregation model (10', 30', 1h); cascade-based disaggregation model (3h, 6h, 12h). On the basis of disaggegation models and Gumbel distribution , the parameters of the IDF curves for the five test cities were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the illustrated procedure has been applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050 provided by the CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

  5. Extreme Rainfall Impacts in Fractured Permeable Catchments

    Ireson, A. M.; Butler, A. P.


    Serious groundwater flooding events have occurred on Chalk catchments in both the UK and north west Europe in the last decade, causing substantial amounts of disruption and economic damage. These fractured, permeable catchments are characterized by low surface runoff, high baseflow indices and strongly attenuated streamflow hydrographs. They have a general resilience to drought and pluvial/fluvial flooding. The small pore size of the Chalk matrix (~ 1 µm) exerts a high suction, such that dynamic storage is primarily due to the fractures, and amounts to ~ 1% of the total volume. As a result, under sustained rainfall the water table can rise up to exceptional levels leading to surface water emergence from springs and valleys. Floodwater may slowly drain with the topography, or, in localized depressions, it may simply pond until the groundwater levels decline. In winter 2000/1, a sequence of individually unexceptional rainfall events over several months led to large scale flooding in the Pang catchment, Berkshire, UK. By contrast, an extreme rainfall event on 20th July 2007 in the same catchment caused a very rapid response at the water table, but due to the antecedent conditions did not lead to flooding. The objective of this study is to quantify how the water table in a fractured permeable catchment responds to different types of rainfall, and the implications of this for groundwater flooding. We make use of measurements from the Pang catchment, including: rainfall (tipping bucket gauges); actual evaporation (eddy flux correlation); soil water content (profile probes and neutron probes); near surface matric potential (tensiometers and equitensiometers); deep (>10m) matric potential (deep jacking tensiometers); and water table elevation (piezometers). Conventional treatment of recharge in Chalk aquifers considers a fixed bypass component of rainfall, normally 15%, to account for the role of the fractures. However, interpretation of the field data suggest three modes

  6. Self-Organized Criticality of Rainfall in Central China

    Zhiliang Wang


    Full Text Available Rainfall is a complexity dynamics process. In this paper, our objective is to find the evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC for rain datasets in China by employing the theory and method of SOC. For this reason, we analyzed the long-term rain records of five meteorological stations in Henan, a central province of China. Three concepts, that is, rain duration, drought duration, accumulated rain amount, are proposed to characterize these rain events processes. We investigate their dynamics property by using scale invariant and found that the long-term rain processes in central China indeed exhibit the feature of self-organized criticality. The proposed theory and method may be suitable to analyze other datasets from different climate zones in China.

  7. A study on the decreasing trend in tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Sreekala, P. P.; Bhaskara Rao, S. V.; Arunachalam, M. S.; Harikiran, C.


    Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind and temperature data (1948-2011) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data, a long-term trend in the tropical easterly jet stream and its effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been explained in the present study. A decreasing trend in zonal wind speed at 100 mb (maximum decrease), 150 mb, and 200 mb (minimum) is observed. The upper-level (100, 150, and 200 mb) zonal wind speed has been correlated with the surface air temperature anomaly index (ATAI) in the month of May, which is taken as the difference in temperature anomaly over land (22.5°N-27.5°N, 80°E-90°E) and Ocean (5°S-0°S, 75°E-85°E). Significant high correlation is observed between May ATAI and tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) which suggests that the decreasing land-sea temperature contrast could be one major reason behind the decreasing trend in TEJ. The analysis of spatial distribution of rainfall over India shows a decreasing trend in rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, central Indian region, and western coast of India. Increasing trend in rainfall is observed over south peninsular and northeastern part of India. From the spatial correlation analysis of zonal wind with gridded rainfall, it is observed that the correlation of rainfall is found to be high with the TEJ speed over the regions where the decreasing trend in rainfall is observed. Similarly, from the analysis of spatial correlation between rainfall and May ATAI, positive spatial correlation is observed between May ATAI and summer monsoon rainfall over the regions such as south peninsular India where the rainfall trend is positive, and negative correlation is observed over the places such as Jammu and Kashmir where negative rainfall trend is observed. The decreased land-sea temperature contrast in the pre-monsoon month could be one major reason behind the decreased trend in TEJ as well as the observed spatial variation in the summer monsoon rainfall trend. Thus

  8. Spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall in a small headwater catchment and its effect on hydrograph separation

    Fischer, Benjamin M. C.; van Meerveld, H. J. (Ilja); Seibert, Jan


    Isotope hydrograph separation (IHS) is a valuable tool to study runoff generation processes. To perform an IHS, samples of baseflow (pre-event water) and streamflow are taken at the catchment outlet. For rainfall (event water) either a bulk sample is collected or it is sampled sequentially during the event. For small headwater catchment studies, event water samples are usually taken at only one sampling location in or near the catchment because the spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall is assumed to be small. However, few studies have tested this assumption. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall and its effects on IHS results using detailed measurements from a small pre-alpine headwater catchment in Switzerland. Rainfall was sampled sequentially at eight locations across the 4.3 km2 Zwäckentobel catchment and stream water was collected in three subcatchments (0.15, 0.23, and 0.70 km2) during ten events. The spatial variability in rainfall amount, average and maximum rainfall intensity and the isotopic composition of rainfall was different for each event. There was no significant relation between the isotopic composition of rainfall and total rainfall amount, rainfall intensity or elevation. For eight of the ten studied events the temporal variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall was larger than the spatial variability in the rainfall isotopic composition. The isotope hydrograph separation results, using only one rain sampler, varied considerably depending on which rain sampler was used to represent the isotopic composition of event water. The calculated minimum pre-event water contributions differed up to 60%. The differences were particularly large for events with a large spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall and a small difference between the event and pre-event water isotopic composition. Our results demonstrate that even in small catchments

  9. Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics

    Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.


    Climate change has altered not only the overall magnitude of rainfall but also their seasonal distribution and interannual variability across the world. Such changes in the rainfall regimes will be most keenly felt in arid and semiarid regions, where the availability and timing of water are key factors controlling biogeochemical cycles, primary productivity, and phenology, in addition to regulating regional agricultural production and economic output. Nevertheless, due to the inherent complexity of the signals, a comprehensive framework to understand seasonal rainfall profiles across multiple timescales and geographical regions is still lacking. Here, we formulate a global measure of seasonality and investigate changes in the seasonal rainfall regime across the tropics in the past century. The seasonality index, which captures the effects of both the magnitude and concentration of the rainy season, is highest in the northeast region of Brazil, western and central Africa, northern Australia, and parts of the Caribbean and Southeast Asia (the seasonally dry tropics). Further decomposing rainfall seasonality into its magnitude, duration, and timing components using spectral techniques and information theory, we find marked increase in the interannual variability of seasonality over most of the dry tropics, implying increasing uncertainty in the intensity, duration, and arrival of seasonal rainfall over the past century. We also show that such increase in variability has occurred in conjunction with shifts in the seasonal timing and changes in its overall magnitude. Thus, it is importance to place the analysis of rainfall regimes in these regions into a seasonal context that is most relevant to local ecological and social processes. These changes, if sustained into the next century, will portend significant shifts in the timing of plant activities and ecosystem composition and distribution, with consequences for water and carbon cycling and water resource management in

  10. Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

    Sreekanth, T. S.

    Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

  11. Modeling the Distribution of Rainfall Intensity using Hourly Data

    Salisu Dan'azumi; Supiah Shamsudin; Azmi Aris


    Problem statement: Design of storm water best management practices to control runoff and water pollution can be achieved if a prior knowledge of the distribution of rainfall characteristics is known. Rainfall intensity, particularly in tropical climate, plays a major role in the design of runoff conveyance and erosion control systems. This study is aimed to explore the statistical distribution of rainfall intensity for Peninsular Malaysia using hourly rainfall data. Approach: Hourly rainfall ...

  12. Interrelationship of rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India

    Kundu, Sananda; Khare, Deepak; Mondal, Arun


    The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 and maximum and minimum temperature data from 1901 to 2005 are used along with the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) to analyze the climate trend of 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh. ET0 is calculated by the Hargreaves method from 1901 to 2005 and the computed data is then used for trend analysis. The temporal variation and the spatial distribution of trend are studied for seasonal and annual series with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's estimator of slope. The percentage of change is used to find the rate of change in 111 years (rainfall) and 105 years (temperatures and ET0). Interrelationships among these variables are analyzed to see the dependency of one variable on the other. The results indicate a decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and ET0 trend. A similar pattern is noticeable in all seasons except for monsoon season in temperature and ET0 trend analysis. The highest increase of temperature is noticed during post-monsoon and winter. Rainfall shows a notable decrease in the monsoon season. The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is considered as a single unit, and the calculation of overall net change in the amount of the rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum) and ET0 is done to estimate the total loss or gain in monthly, seasonal and annual series. The results show net loss or deficit in the amount of rainfall and the net gain or excess in the temperature and ET0 amount.

  13. A Study of Rainfall Variations in the Philippines: 1950-1996

    Bonifacio Pajuelas


    Full Text Available The long-period rainfall variations in the Philippines are studied using unfiltered and filtered Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI. To have RAI’s that are representative for each group, zones of quasi-homogeneous climate were constructed based on highly correlated stations (r > 0.75, narrow standard deviation, and period of maximum rainfall using the 1950-1996 monthly rainfall total. Variance analyses of the RAI’s suggest that unfiltered samples do not significantly differ from the normal distribution except for the western part (climate type 1 that have significant positive skewness and peakedness. The RAI’s contain a significant amount of non-random elements and a significant negative change in mean is reflected over the central Visayas and Mindanao (climate type 3. Filtered RAI’s that are not significantly different from the normal distribution (at least for c2 test indicated significant trend over areas with high-variable rainfall (i.e., climate types 1, 2, 4 & 5.In general, long-period rainfall may have changed over the period of study. The 10-year filtered RAI’s have the possibility of falling rate over climate types 1, 2 & 5, but increasing rate over climate type 4. These trends are indicated towards the rainfall-sensitive months (i.e., February through May during El Niño or La Niña events. Falling rate is also significant from October through January over climate type 4. Longer periods (30-year filtered RAI’s have significant negative trend for climate types 2 &4, but positive trend for climate type 5. These trends also occurred during February through May.

  14. Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

    Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan


    Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10), EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.

  15. Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China

    Sun, Hemin; Wang, Guojie; Li, Xiucang; Chen, Jing; Su, Buda; Jiang, Tong


    Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960-2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima (AM) sub-daily rainfall series (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach) for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions: Northeast (NE1, NE2), Central (C), Central North (CN1, CN2), Central East (CE1, CE2, CE3), Southeast (SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4), and Southwest (SW). The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80-270 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) and 108-390 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37-104 mm and 53-140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1-24-h rainfall varied from -3-4 mm to -23-11 mm (-10%-10%) for 20-yr events, reaching -6-26 mm (-10%-30%) and -10-133 mm (-10%-90%) for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.

  16. A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

    Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng


    Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures

  17. CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India

    Akhter, Javed; Das, Lalu; Deb, Argha


    Performances of the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models in reproducing the spatial rainfall patterns over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India viz. North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI) and South Peninsular India (SPI) have been assessed using different conventional performance metrics namely spatial correlation (R), index of agreement (d-index), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Ratio of RMSE to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) and mean bias (MB). The results based on these indices revealed that majority of the models are unable to reproduce finer-scaled spatial patterns over most of the zones. Thereafter, four bias correction methods i.e. Scaling, Standardized Reconstruction, Empirical Quantile Mapping and Gamma Quantile Mapping have been applied on GCM simulations to enhance the skills of the GCM projections. It has been found that scaling method compared to other three methods shown its better skill in capturing mean spatial patterns. Multi-model ensemble (MME) comprising 25 numbers of better performing bias corrected (Scaled) GCMs, have been considered for developing future rainfall patterns over seven zones. Models' spread from ensemble mean (uncertainty) has been found to be larger in RCP 8.5 than RCP4.5 ensemble. In general, future rainfall projections from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 revealed an increasing rainfall over seven zones during 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The maximum increase has been found over southwestern part of NWI (12-30%), northwestern part of WPI (3-30%), southeastern part of NEI (5-18%) and northern and eastern part of SPI (6-24%). However, the contiguous region comprising by the southeastern part of NCI and northeastern part of EPI, may experience slight decreasing rainfall (about 3%) during 2020s whereas the western part of NMI may also receive around 3% reduction in rainfall during both 2050s and 2080s.

  18. CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India

    Akhter, Javed; Das, Lalu; Deb, Argha


    Performances of the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models in reproducing the spatial rainfall patterns over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India viz. North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI) and South Peninsular India (SPI) have been assessed using different conventional performance metrics namely spatial correlation (R), index of agreement (d-index), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Ratio of RMSE to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) and mean bias (MB). The results based on these indices revealed that majority of the models are unable to reproduce finer-scaled spatial patterns over most of the zones. Thereafter, four bias correction methods i.e. Scaling, Standardized Reconstruction, Empirical Quantile Mapping and Gamma Quantile Mapping have been applied on GCM simulations to enhance the skills of the GCM projections. It has been found that scaling method compared to other three methods shown its better skill in capturing mean spatial patterns. Multi-model ensemble (MME) comprising 25 numbers of better performing bias corrected (Scaled) GCMs, have been considered for developing future rainfall patterns over seven zones. Models' spread from ensemble mean (uncertainty) has been found to be larger in RCP 8.5 than RCP4.5 ensemble. In general, future rainfall projections from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 revealed an increasing rainfall over seven zones during 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The maximum increase has been found over southwestern part of NWI (12-30%), northwestern part of WPI (3-30%), southeastern part of NEI (5-18%) and northern and eastern part of SPI (6-24%). However, the contiguous region comprising by the southeastern part of NCI and northeastern part of EPI, may experience slight decreasing rainfall (about 3%) during 2020s whereas the western part of NMI may also receive around 3% reduction in rainfall during both 2050s and 2080s.

  19. Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

    Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng


    Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

  20. Identification and characterization of rainfall events responsible for triggering of debris flows and shallow landslides

    Iadanza, Carla; Trigila, Alessandro; Napolitano, Francesco


    The aim of this study is the development of objective and replicable methodologies for the identification, analysis and characterization of rainfall events responsible for the triggering of shallow landslides and debris flows, in order to define empirical rainfall thresholds. The study area is the province of Trento (6208 km2), located in the north-eastern Alps, and characterized by complex orography, with 70% of the area at an altitude above 1000 m. A rigorous statistical methodology has been defined for the identification of the beginning of the triggering event, based on the critical duration, i.e. the minimum dry period duration separating two stochastically independent rainy periods. The critical duration has been calculated for each rain gauge of the studied area and its variability during the months of the year has been analyzed. An analysis of the rainfall spatial variability in a neighborhood of the landslide detachment zone has been carried out. The adopted methods are: the examination of the Monte Macaion radar maps during some summer convective events, the comparison of rainfall records of rain gauges located in a 10 km buffer around the landslide, and the calculation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between pairs of neighboring rain gauges. The following rainfall thresholds have been then calibrated with the frequentist approach and compared: average intensity-event duration (I-D), which represents the rainfall event in its entirety, and intensity-duration associated with the event maximum return period (IRP-DRP), which considers the most critical portion of the event. In the absence of information about the landslide time of activation, the end of the triggering event has been identified using two criteria: the rainfall peak intensity and the last registration of the day. The methodology adopted for the objective identification of the beginning of the triggering event has demonstrated good applicability for rainfall induced landslides. During

  1. Time distribution of heavy rainfall events in south west of Iran

    Ghassabi, Zahra; kamali, G. Ali; Meshkatee, Amir-Hussain; Hajam, Sohrab; Javaheri, Nasrolah


    Accurate knowledge of rainfall time distribution is a fundamental issue in many Meteorological-Hydrological studies such as using the information of the surface runoff in the design of the hydraulic structures, flood control and risk management, and river engineering studies. Since the main largest dams of Iran are in the south-west of the country (i.e. South Zagros), this research investigates the temporal rainfall distribution based on an analytical numerical method to increase the accuracy of hydrological studies in Iran. The United States Soil Conservation Service (SCS) estimated the temporal rainfall distribution in various forms. Hydrology studies usually utilize the same distribution functions in other areas of the world including Iran due to the lack of sufficient observation data. However, we first used Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model to achieve the simulated rainfall results of the selected storms on south west of Iran in this research. Then, a three-parametric Logistic function was fitted to the rainfall data in order to compute the temporal rainfall distribution. The domain of the WRF model is 30.5N-34N and 47.5E-52.5E with a resolution of 0.08 degree in latitude and longitude. We selected 35 heavy storms based on the observed rainfall data set to simulate with the WRF Model. Storm events were scrutinized independently from each other and the best analytical three-parametric logistic function was fitted for each grid point. The results show that the value of the coefficient a of the logistic function, which indicates rainfall intensity, varies from the minimum of 0.14 to the maximum of 0.7. Furthermore, the values of the coefficient B of the logistic function, which indicates rain delay of grid points from start time of rainfall, vary from 1.6 in south-west and east to more than 8 in north and central parts of the studied area. In addition, values of rainfall intensities are lower in south west of IRAN than those of observed or proposed by the

  2. Spatial estimation of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its dependence on rainfall return period

    Destro, Elisa; Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Zoccatelli, Davide; Creutin, Jean Dominique; Borga, Marco


    Forecasting the occurrence of debris flows is fundamental for issuing hazard warnings, and often focuses on rainfall as a triggering agent and on the use of empirical rainfall thresholds based on rain gauge observations. A recognized component of the uncertainty associated with the use of rainfall thresholds is related to the sampling of strongly varying rainfall variability with sparse rain gauge networks. In this work we examine the spatial distribution of rainfall depth in areas up to 10 km from the debris flow initiation points as a function of return period, and we exploit this information to analyze the errors expected in the estimation of debris flow triggering rainfall when rain gauge data are used. In particular, we investigate the impact of rain gauge density and of the use of different interpolation methods. High-resolution, adjusted radar rainfall estimates, representing the best available spatially-distributed rainfall estimates at the debris flows initiation point and in the surrounding area, are sampled by stochastically generated rain gauge networks characterized by varying densities. Debris flow triggering rainfall is estimated by means of three rainfall interpolation methods: nearest neighbor, inverse distance weighting and ordinary kriging. On average, triggering rainfall shows a local peak corresponding to the debris flow initiation point, with a decay of rainfall with distance which increases with the return period of the triggering rainfall. Interpolation of the stochastically generated rain gauge measurements leads to an underestimation of the triggering rainfall that, irrespective of the interpolation methods, increases with the return period and decreases with the rain gauge density. For small return period events and high rain gauge density, the differences among the methods are minor. With increasing the return period and decreasing the rain gauge density, the nearest neighbor method is less biased, because it makes use only of the

  3. Rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments: an important source of water pollution.

    Frey, S K; Gottschall, N; Wilkes, G; Grégoire, D S; Topp, E; Pintar, K D M; Sunohara, M; Marti, R; Lapen, D R


    When surface water levels decline, exposed streambed sediments can be mobilized and washed into the water course when subjected to erosive rainfall. In this study, rainfall simulations were conducted over exposed sediments along stream banks at four distinct locations in an agriculturally dominated river basin with the objective of quantifying the potential for contaminant loading from these often overlooked runoff source areas. At each location, simulations were performed at three different sites. Nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment, fecal indicator bacteria, pathogenic bacteria, and microbial source tracking (MST) markers were examined in both prerainfall sediments and rainfall-induced runoff water. Runoff generation and sediment mobilization occurred quickly (10-150 s) after rainfall initiation. Temporal trends in runoff concentrations were highly variable within and between locations. Total runoff event loads were considered large for many pollutants considered. For instance, the maximum observed total phosphorus runoff load was on the order of 1.5 kg ha. Results also demonstrate that runoff from exposed sediments can be a source of pathogenic bacteria. spp. and spp. were present in runoff from one and three locations, respectively. Ruminant MST markers were also present in runoff from two locations, one of which hosted pasturing cattle with stream access. Overall, this study demonstrated that rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments can be an important source of surface water pollution.

  4. Impact of rainfall data resolution in time and space on the urban flooding evaluation.

    Notaro, Vincenza; Fontanazza, Chiara Maria; Freni, Gabriele; Puleo, Valeria


    Climate change and modification of the urban environment increase the frequency and the negative effects of flooding, increasing the interest of researchers and practitioners in this topic. Usually, flood frequency analysis in urban areas is indirectly carried out by adopting advanced hydraulic models to simulate long historical rainfall series or design storms. However, their results are affected by a level of uncertainty which has been extensively investigated in recent years. A major source of uncertainty inherent to hydraulic model results is linked to the imperfect knowledge of the rainfall input data both in time and space. Several studies show that hydrological modelling in urban areas requires rainfall data with fine resolution in time and space. The present paper analyses the effect of rainfall knowledge on urban flood modelling results. A mathematical model of urban flooding propagation was applied to a real case study and the maximum efficiency conditions for the model and the uncertainty affecting the results were evaluated by means of generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) analysis. The added value provided by the adoption of finer temporal and spatial resolution of the rainfall was assessed.

  5. A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes

    M. H. Spekkers


    Full Text Available In this paper, a database of water-related insurance damage claims related to private properties and content was analysed. The aim was to investigate whether high numbers of damage claims were associated with high rainfall intensities. Rainfall data were used for the period of 2003–2010 in the Netherlands based on a network of 33 automatic rain gauges operated by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Insurance damage data were aggregated to areas within 10-km range of the rain gauges. Through a logistic regression model, high claim numbers were linked to maximum rainfall intensities, with rainfall intensity based on 10-min to 4-h time windows. Rainfall intensity proved to be a significant damage predictor; however, the explained variance, approximated by a pseudo-R2 statistic, was at most 34% for property damage and at most 30% for content damage. When directly comparing predicted and observed values, the model was able to predict 5–17% more cases correctly compared to a random prediction. No important differences were found between relations with property and content damage data. A considerable fraction of the variance is left unexplained, which emphasizes the need to study damage generating mechanisms and additional explanatory variables.

  6. The effects of rainfall and vegetation on litterfall production in the semiarid region of northeastern Brazil.

    Lopes, M C A; Araújo, V F P; Vasconcellos, A


    Litterfall has a strong influence on biodiversity and on the chemical and physical characteristics of the soil. Its production can be quite variable over time and space, and can be influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors. We evaluated litterfall production and its relationship with rainfall, species richness, and the densities of the arboreal vegetation. Thirty litter traps were constructed with 1.0 m2 nylon mesh (1.0 mm) and randomly installed within a 2000 m × 500 m area of arboreal/shrub Caatinga (dryland) vegetation. Litter samples were collected monthly from November/2010 to June/2012, and the collected material was classified, dried, and weighted. Species richness and tree densities were determined by conducting phytosociological surveys in 20 m × 20 m plots surrounding each of the litter traps. The litterfall accumulation rate was 3.673 Mgha-1yr-1, similar to values from other seasonally dry tropical forests. Litterfall production was continuous, and principally accompanied the rainfall rate, but with a time interval of 2 to 3 months, with the greatest accumulation at the beginning of the dry season and the least during the rainy season. The different fractions of materials demonstrated distinct accumulation rates, with leaves being the principal category. Litterfall production was found to be related to tree density, but no link was found to species richness. The observed temporal heterogeneity of litterfall production demonstrated a strong link between rainfall and the dynamics of nutrient cycling in the semiarid region of Brazil.

  7. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

    Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul


    The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

  8. Rainfall variability and seasonality in northern Bangladesh

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul; Husna, Noor-E.-Ashmaul


    This paper aimed at the analysis of rainfall seasonality and variability for the northern part of South-Asian country, Bangladesh. The coefficient of variability was used to determine the variability of rainfall. While rainfall seasonality index (SI ) and mean individual seasonality index ( overline{SI_i} ) were used to identify seasonal contrast. We also applied Mann-Kendall trend test and sequential Mann-Kendall test to determine the trend in seasonality. The lowest variability was found for monsoon among the four seasons whereas winter has the highest variability. Observed variability has a decreasing tendency from the northwest region towards the northeast region. The mean individual seasonality index (0.815378 to 0.977228) indicates that rainfall in Bangladesh is "markedly seasonal with a long dry season." It was found that the length of the dry period is lower at the northeastern part of northern Bangladesh. Trend analysis results show no significant change in the seasonality of rainfall in this region. Regression analysis of overline{SI_i} and SI, and longitude and mean individual seasonality index show a significant linear correlation for this area.

  9. Novel SVM-based technique to improve rainfall estimation over the Mediterranean region (north of Algeria) using the multispectral MSG SEVIRI imagery

    Sehad, Mounir; Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane


    In this work, a new rainfall estimation technique based on the high spatial and temporal resolution of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra Red Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) is presented. This work proposes efficient scheme rainfall estimation based on two multiclass support vector machine (SVM) algorithms: SVM_D for daytime and SVM_N for night time rainfall estimations. Both SVM models are trained using relevant rainfall parameters based on optical, microphysical and textural cloud proprieties. The cloud parameters are derived from the Spectral channels of the SEVIRI MSG radiometer. The 3-hourly and daily accumulated rainfall are derived from the 15 min-rainfall estimation given by the SVM classifiers for each MSG observation image pixel. The SVMs were trained with ground meteorological radar precipitation scenes recorded from November 2006 to March 2007 over the north of Algeria located in the Mediterranean region. Further, the SVM_D and SVM_N models were used to estimate 3-hourly and daily rainfall using data set gathered from November 2010 to March 2011 over north Algeria. The results were validated against collocated rainfall observed by rain gauge network. Indeed, the statistical scores given by correlation coefficient, bias, root mean square error and mean absolute error, showed good accuracy of rainfall estimates by the present technique. Moreover, rainfall estimates of our technique were compared with two high accuracy rainfall estimates methods based on MSG SEVIRI imagery namely: random forests (RF) based approach and an artificial neural network (ANN) based technique. The findings of the present technique indicate higher correlation coefficient (3-hourly: 0.78; daily: 0.94), and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error values. The results show that the new technique assign 3-hourly and daily rainfall with good and better accuracy than ANN technique and (RF) model.

  10. Nonstationarity of daily rainfall annual maxima in Puglia (Southern Italy)

    Totaro, Vincenzo; Gioia, Andrea; Iacobellis, Vito


    Extreme flood events occurring in the last decades, due to climatic conditions in rapid evolution and/or changes in land cover, has lead the scientific community to develop and improve probabilistic techniques in order to take into account these effects, as also requested by the EU Floods Directive 2007/60. In the recent literature are becoming more popular studies that investigate the nonstationarity of the variables usually treated in hydrology through the analysis of their trend behavior. In this context it is also useful to assess the impact that the climate and /or land cover modifications have on the performances of the probabilistic stationary models used to predict hydrological variables such as rainfall and flood peaks. Among several proposed approaches, we use the redefined concept of return period and risk by considering the variability over time of the position parameter of the GEV distribution, with the subsequent discussion about the implications of analytical and technical characters. The analysis was carried out on the time series of annual maximum of daily precipitation available for a broad number of rainfall gauged stations in Puglia (Southern Italy). The investigation, conducted at the regional scale, leads to the identification of areas with different significativity of the statistical tests usually performed in order to assess nonstationarity. The evaluated change of return period leads to considerations useful to redesign methods for regional analysis of flood frequency.

  11. Statistical Inference for Point Process Models of Rainfall

    Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.


    In this paper we develop maximum likelihood procedures for parameter estimation and model selection that apply to a large class of point process models that have been used to model rainfall occurrences, including Cox processes, Neyman-Scott processes, and renewal processes. The statistical inference procedures are based on the stochastic intensity λ(t) = lims→0,s>0 (1/s)E[N(t + s) - N(t)|N(u), u process is shown to have a simple expression in terms of the stochastic intensity. The main result of this paper is a recursive procedure for computing stochastic intensities; the procedure is applicable to a broad class of point process models, including renewal Cox process with Markovian intensity processes and an important class of Neyman-Scott processes. The model selection procedure we propose, which is based on likelihood ratios, allows direct comparison of two classes of point processes to determine which provides a better model for a given data set. The estimation and model selection procedures are applied to two data sets of simulated Cox process arrivals and a data set of daily rainfall occurrences in the Potomac River basin.

  12. Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response

    D. Zoccatelli


    Full Text Available This paper describes a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" quantifying the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. These statistics describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of catchment-scale storm velocity. The concept of the catchment-scale storm velocity takes into account the role of relative catchment orientation and morphology with respect to storm motion and kinematics. The paper illustrates the derivation of the statistics from an analytical framework recently proposed in literature and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by applying them to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km2. The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide useful information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

  13. Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

    Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel


    Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

  14. Rainfall intensity-duration conditions for mass movements in Taiwan

    Chen, Chi-Wen; Saito, Hitoshi; Oguchi, Takashi


    Mass movements caused by rainfall events in Taiwan are analyzed during a 7-year period from 2006 to 2012. Data from the Taiwan Soil and Water Conservation Bureau reports were compiled for 263 mass movement events, including 156 landslides, 91 debris flows, and 16 events with both landslides and debris flows. Rainfall totals for each site location were obtained from interpolated rain gauge data. The rainfall intensity-duration ( I-D) relationship was examined to establish a rainfall threshold for mass movements using random sampling: I = 18.10(±2.67) D -0.17(±0.04), where I is mean rainfall intensity (mm/h) and D is the time (h) between the beginning of a rainfall event and the resulting mass movement. Significant differences were found between rainfall intensities and thresholds for landslides and debris flows. For short-duration rainfall events, higher mean rainfall intensities were required to trigger debris flows. In contrast, for long-duration rainfall events, similar mean rainfall intensities triggered both landslides and debris flows. Mean rainfall intensity was rescaled by mean annual precipitation (MAP) to define a new threshold: I MAP = 0.0060(±0.0009) D -0.17(±0.04), where I MAP is rescaled rainfall intensity and MAP is the minimum for mountainous areas in Taiwan (3000 mm). Although the I-D threshold for Taiwan is high, the I MAP -D threshold for Taiwan tends to be low relative to other areas around the world. Our results indicate that Taiwan is highly prone to rainfall-induced mass movements. This study also shows that most mass movements occur in high rainfall-intensity periods, but some events occur before or after the rainfall peak. Both antecedent and peak rainfall play important roles in triggering landslides, whereas debris flow occurrence is more related to peak rainfall than antecedent rainfall.

  15. Intermittent rainfall in dynamic multimedia fate modeling.

    Hertwich, E G


    It has been shown that steady-state multimedia models (level III fugacity models) lead to a substantial underestimate of air concentrations for chemicals with a low Henry's law constant (H multimedia models are used to estimate the spatial range or inhalation exposure. A dynamic model of pollutant fate is developed for conditions of intermittent rainfall to calculate the time profile of pollutant concentrations in different environmental compartments. The model utilizes a new, mathematically efficient approach to dynamic multimedia fate modeling that is based on the convolution of solutions to the initial conditions problem. For the first time, this approach is applied to intermittent conditions. The investigation indicates that the time-averaged pollutant concentrations under intermittent rainfall can be approximated by the appropriately weighted average of steady-state concentrations under conditions with and without rainfall.

  16. Critical Phenomena of Rainfall in Ecuador

    Serrano, Sh.; Vasquez, N.; Jacome, P.; Basile, L.


    Self-organized criticality (SOC) is characterized by a power law behavior over complex systems like earthquakes and avalanches. We study rainfall using data of one day, 3 hours and 10 min temporal resolution from INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia) station at Izobamba, DMQ (Metropolitan District of Quito), satellite data over Ecuador from Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission (TRMM,) and REMMAQ (Red Metropolitana de Monitoreo Atmosferico de Quito) meteorological stations over, respectively. Our results show a power law behavior of the number of rain events versus mm of rainfall measured for the high resolution case (10 min), and as the resolution decreases this behavior gets lost. This statistical property is the fingerprint of a self-organized critical process (Peter and Christensen, 2002) and may serve as a benchmark for models of precipitation based in phase transitions between water vapor and precipitation (Peter and Neeling, 2006).

  17. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Kinnell, Peter


    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  18. Monitoring Niger River Floods from satellite Rainfall Estimates : overall skill and rainfall uncertainty propagation.

    Gosset, Marielle; Casse, Claire; Peugeot, christophe; boone, aaron; pedinotti, vanessa


    Global measurement of rainfall offers new opportunity for hydrological monitoring, especially for some of the largest Tropical river where the rain gauge network is sparse and radar is not available. Member of the GPM constellation, the new French-Indian satellite Mission Megha-Tropiques (MT) dedicated to the water and energy budget in the tropical atmosphere contributes to a better monitoring of rainfall in the inter-tropical zone. As part of this mission, research is developed on the use of satellite rainfall products for hydrological research or operational application such as flood monitoring. A key issue for such applications is how to account for rainfall products biases and uncertainties, and how to propagate them into the end user models ? Another important question is how to choose the best space-time resolution for the rainfall forcing, given that both model performances and rain-product uncertainties are resolution dependent. This paper analyses the potential of satellite rainfall products combined with hydrological modeling to monitor the Niger river floods in the city of Niamey, Niger. A dramatic increase of these floods has been observed in the last decades. The study focuses on the 125000 km2 area in the vicinity of Niamey, where local runoff is responsible for the most extreme floods recorded in recent years. Several rainfall products are tested as forcing to the SURFEX-TRIP hydrological simulations. Differences in terms of rainfall amount, number of rainy days, spatial extension of the rainfall events and frequency distribution of the rain rates are found among the products. Their impacts on the simulated outflow is analyzed. The simulations based on the Real time estimates produce an excess in the discharge. For flood prediction, the problem can be overcome by a prior adjustment of the products - as done here with probability matching - or by analysing the simulated discharge in terms of percentile or anomaly. All tested products exhibit some

  19. Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

    Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J


    Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

  20. Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

    Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc


    We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall

  1. Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo


    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

  2. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad


    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  3. OECD Maximum Residue Limit Calculator

    With the goal of harmonizing the calculation of maximum residue limits (MRLs) across the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the OECD has developed an MRL Calculator. View the calculator.

  4. Highway Capacity Loss Induced by Rainfall

    Hashim Mohammed Alhassan


    Full Text Available The effect of rainfall on capacity reduction on highways has been investigated. Traffic data was generated for both wet and dry conditions. The data analysis showed that the highway section studied was operating in free flow region. A 2.7% capacity loss was obtained for the road. It is argued that no traffic instability could arise from this situation if the state of traffic remains in the free flow regime. However, in the event of the coincidence of fixed bottlenecks and rainfall, instabilities arising from that could lead to further capacity loss.

  5. Extreme rainfall events in karst environments: the case study of September 2014 in the Gargano area (southern Italy)

    Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Trabace, Maria; Marchesini, Ivan; Peruccacci, Silvia; Rossi, Mauro; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Parise, Mario; Brunetti, Maria Teresa


    In the first week of September 2014, the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, SE Italy) was hit by an extreme rainfall event that caused several landslides, floods and sinkholes. As a consequence of the floods, two people lost their lives and severe socio-economic damages were reported. The highest peaks of rainfall were recorded between September 3rd and 6th at the Cagnano Varano and San Marco in Lamis rain gauges with a maximum daily rainfall (over 230 mm) that is about 30% the mean annual rainfall. The Gargano Promontory is characterized by complex orographic conditions, with the highest elevation of about 1000 m a.s.l. The geological setting consists of different types of carbonate deposits affected by intensive development of karst processes. The morphological and climatic settings of the area, associated with frequent extreme rainfall events can cause various types of geohazards (e.g., landslides, floods, sinkholes). A further element enhancing the natural predisposition of the area to the occurrence of landslides, floods and sinkholes is an intense human activity, characterized by an inappropriate land use and management. In order to obtain consistent and reliable data on the effects produced by the storm, a systematic collection of information through field observations, a critical analysis of newspaper articles and web-news, and a co-operation with the Regional Civil Protection and local geologists started immediately after the event. The information collected has been organized in a database including the location, the occurrence time and the type of geohazard documented with photographs. The September 2014 extreme rainfall event in the Gargano Promontory was also analyzed to validate the forecasts issued by the Italian national early-warning system for rainfall-induced landslides (SANF), developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Italian national Department for Civil Protection (DPC). SANF compares rainfall measurements and

  6. Using CHIRPS Rainfall Dataset to detect rainfall trends in West Africa

    Blakeley, S. L.; Husak, G. J.


    In West Africa, agriculture is often rain-fed, subjecting agricultural productivity and food availability to climate variability. Agricultural conditions will change as warming temperatures increase evaporative demand, and with a growing population dependent on the food supply, farmers will become more reliant on improved adaptation strategies. Development of such adaptation strategies will need to consider West African rainfall trends to remain relevant in a changing climate. Here, using the CHIRPS rainfall product (provided by the Climate Hazards Group at UC Santa Barbara), I examine trends in West African rainfall variability. My analysis will focus on seasonal rainfall totals, the structure of the rainy season, and the distribution of rainfall. I then use farmer-identified drought years to take an in-depth analysis of intra-seasonal rainfall irregularities. I will also examine other datasets such as potential evapotranspiration (PET) data, other remotely sensed rainfall data, rain gauge data in specific locations, and remotely sensed vegetation data. Farmer bad year data will also be used to isolate "bad" year markers in these additional datasets to provide benchmarks for identification in the future of problematic rainy seasons.

  7. Rainfall Interpolation and Uncertainty Assessment at different Temporal and Spatial Scales

    Bárdossy, A.; Pegram, G.


    Spatial interpolation of rainfall over different time and spatial scales is necessary in many applications of hydrometeorology including (i) catchment modelling, (ii) blending/conditioning of radar-rainfall images and (iii) correction of remote sensing estimates of rainfall (for example using TRMM) which are known to be biased, to name three. The specific problems encountered in rainfall interpolation include: • the large number of calculations which need to be performed automatically • the quantification of the influence of topography, usually the most influential of exogenous variables • how to use observed zero (dry) values in interpolation, because their proportion increases with shorter time scales • the need to estimate a reasonable uncertainty of the modelled point/pixel distributions • the difficulty of estimating uncertainty of accumulations over a range of spatial scales The approaches used and described in the presentation employ the variables rainfall and altitude. The methods of interpolation, restricted to 10 controls neighbouring the target, include (i) Ordinary Kriging of the rainfall without altitude, (ii) External Drift Kriging with altitude as an exogenous variable, and less conventionally, (iii) truncated Gaussian copulas and v-copulas, both omitting and including the altitude of the control stations as well as that of the target. It is found that truncated Gaussian copulas, with the target's and all control the stations' altitudes included as exogenous variables, produce the lowest Mean Square error in cross-validation and, as a bonus, model with the least bias. In contrast, the uncertainty of interpolation is better described by the v-copulas, but the Gaussian copulas have the computational advantage (by three orders of magnitude) which justifies their use in practice. It turns out that the uncertainty estimates of the OK and EDK interpolants are not competitive at any time scale, from daily to annual.

  8. Characterizing rainfall in the Tenerife island

    Díez-Sierra, Javier; del Jesus, Manuel; Losada Rodriguez, Inigo


    In many locations, rainfall data are collected through networks of meteorological stations. The data collection process is nowadays automated in many places, leading to the development of big databases of rainfall data covering extensive areas of territory. However, managers, decision makers and engineering consultants tend not to extract most of the information contained in these databases due to the lack of specific software tools for their exploitation. Here we present the modeling and development effort put in place in the Tenerife island in order to develop MENSEI-L, a software tool capable of automatically analyzing a complete rainfall database to simplify the extraction of information from observations. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information derived from atmospheric conditions to separate the complete time series into homogeneous groups where statistical distributions are fitted. Normal and extreme regimes are obtained in this manner. MENSEI-L is also able to complete missing data in the time series and to generate synthetic stations by using Kriging techniques. These techniques also serve to generate the spatial regimes of precipitation, both normal and extreme ones. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information to also provide a stochastic three-day probability forecast for rainfall.

  9. Rainfall erosivity in Brazil: A Review

    In this paper, we review the erosivity studies conducted in Brazil to verify the quality and representativeness of the results generated and to provide a greater understanding of the rainfall erosivity (R-factor) in Brazil. We searched the ISI Web of Science, Scopus, SciELO, and Google Scholar datab...

  10. Determinants of southeast Ethiopia seasonal rainfall

    Jury, Mark R.


    The bi-modal climate of SE Ethiopia shares attributes with East Africa, notably that El Niño enhances rainfall, particularly in Sep-Nov season. In this study SE Ethiopia's continuous and seasonal rainfall relationships to global climate are studied to extend our knowledge of its determinants and predictability. A statistical forecast algorithm for the Sep-Nov short rains accounts for 54% of variance in 1980-2010. The Apr-Jun predictors include South Atlantic sea surface temperature, east Indian Ocean sea level air pressure and China upper zonal wind. Cooling in the South Atlantic coincides with a strengthened sub-tropical anticyclone, and later to changes in low level winds that bring orographic convection to SE Ethiopia. The slower El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interacts with the faster Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), but both signals mature too late for direct use in statistical prediction of Sep-Nov rainfall. Composite differences of the upper divergent circulation exhibit a global wave-2 pattern consistent with satellite-observed convection. One key feature is a zonal gradient in upper velocity potential over the Indian Ocean corresponding with a zonal atmospheric circulation. One outcome of this research is useful forecasts of SE Ethiopia Sep-Nov rainfall that will assist in agricultural planning.

  11. Water Conservation Education with a Rainfall Simulator.

    Kok, Hans; Kessen, Shelly


    Describes a program in which a rainfall simulator was used to promote water conservation by showing water infiltration, water runoff, and soil erosion. The demonstrations provided a good background for the discussion of issues such as water conservation, crop rotation, and conservation tillage practices. The program raised awareness of…

  12. Coping with rainfall variability in northern Tanzania

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte


    This chapter explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...

  13. Maximum margin Bayesian network classifiers.

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael; Tschiatschek, Sebastian


    We present a maximum margin parameter learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers using a conjugate gradient (CG) method for optimization. In contrast to previous approaches, we maintain the normalization constraints on the parameters of the Bayesian network during optimization, i.e., the probabilistic interpretation of the model is not lost. This enables us to handle missing features in discriminatively optimized Bayesian networks. In experiments, we compare the classification performance of maximum margin parameter learning to conditional likelihood and maximum likelihood learning approaches. Discriminative parameter learning significantly outperforms generative maximum likelihood estimation for naive Bayes and tree augmented naive Bayes structures on all considered data sets. Furthermore, maximizing the margin dominates the conditional likelihood approach in terms of classification performance in most cases. We provide results for a recently proposed maximum margin optimization approach based on convex relaxation. While the classification results are highly similar, our CG-based optimization is computationally up to orders of magnitude faster. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve classification performance comparable to support vector machines (SVMs) using fewer parameters. Moreover, we show that unanticipated missing feature values during classification can be easily processed by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  14. Maximum Entropy in Drug Discovery

    Chih-Yuan Tseng


    Full Text Available Drug discovery applies multidisciplinary approaches either experimentally, computationally or both ways to identify lead compounds to treat various diseases. While conventional approaches have yielded many US Food and Drug Administration (FDA-approved drugs, researchers continue investigating and designing better approaches to increase the success rate in the discovery process. In this article, we provide an overview of the current strategies and point out where and how the method of maximum entropy has been introduced in this area. The maximum entropy principle has its root in thermodynamics, yet since Jaynes’ pioneering work in the 1950s, the maximum entropy principle has not only been used as a physics law, but also as a reasoning tool that allows us to process information in hand with the least bias. Its applicability in various disciplines has been abundantly demonstrated. We give several examples of applications of maximum entropy in different stages of drug discovery. Finally, we discuss a promising new direction in drug discovery that is likely to hinge on the ways of utilizing maximum entropy.

  15. Preliminary study on mechanics-based rainfall kinetic energy

    Yuan Jiuqin Ms.


    Full Text Available A raindrop impact power observation system was employed to observe the real-time raindrop impact power during a rainfall event and to analyze the corresponding rainfall characteristics. The experiments were conducted at different simulated rainfall intensities. As rainfall intensity increased, the observed impact power increased linearly indicating the power observation system would be satisfactory for characterizing rainfall erosivity. Momentum is the product of mass and velocity (Momentum=MV, which is related to the observed impact power value. Since there is no significant difference between momentum and impact power, observed impact power can represent momentum for different rainfall intensities. The relationship between momentum and the observed impact power provides a convenient way to calculate rainfall kinetic energy. The value of rainfall kinetic energy based on the observed impact power was higher than the classic rainfall kinetic energy. The rainfall impact power based kinetic energy and the classic rainfall kinetic energy showed linear correlation, which indicates that the raindrop impact power observation system can characterize rainfall kinetic energy. The article establishes a preliminary way to calculate rainfall kinetic energy by using the real-time observed momentum, providing a foundation for replacing the traditional methods for estimating kinetic energy of rainstorms.

  16. Geostatistical Analysis of Winter Rainfall for 2013 in Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey (comparison of the past status and future projections)

    Ustaoglu, Beyza


    Rainfall is one of the most important climatic factor for environmental studies. Several methods (Thiessen polygon, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Kriging etc.) have been used by researchers for spatial interpolation of rainfall data. Kriging is a geostatistical method which is based on spatial correlation between neighbouring observations to predict attribute values at unsampled locations. The study area, Eastern Black Sea Basin is one of the highest rainfall accumulations in Turkey according to the measured station data (1942 - 2011). Eastern Black Sea Basin is the only basin in Turkey with an increase amount of winter (October, November, December) rainfall for 2013 in comparison to the long term mean and previous year winter rainfall. Regarding to the future projections (Ustaoglu, 2011), this basin has one of the strongest increasing trend according to the A2 scenario analysis obtained from RegCM3 regional climate model during the ten years periods (2011 - 2100). In this study, 2013 winter rainfall in the basin is highlighted and compared with the past and future rainfall conditions of the basin. Keywords: Geostatistical Analysis, Winter Rainfall, Eastern Black Sea Basin

  17. An Establishment of Rainfall-induced Soil Erosion Index for the Slope Land in Watershed

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Shu, Chia-Chun; Chen, Ying-Hui


    With more and more concentrated extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change, in Taiwan, mass cover soil erosion occurred frequently and led to sediment related disasters in high intensity precipiton region during typhoons or torrential rain storms. These disasters cause a severely lost to the property, public construction and even the casualty of the resident in the affected areas. Therefore, we collected soil losses by using field investigation data from the upstream of watershed where near speific rivers to explore the soil erosion caused by heavy rainfall under different natural environment. Soil losses induced by rainfall and runoff were obtained from the long-term soil depth measurement of erosion plots, which were established in the field, used to estimate the total volume of soil erosion. Furthermore, the soil erosion index was obtained by referring to natural environment of erosion test plots and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). All data collected from field were used to compare with the one obtained from laboratory test recommended by the Technical Regulation for Soil and Water Conservation in Taiwan. With MATLAB as a modeling platform, evaluation model for soil erodibility factors was obtained by golden section search method, considering factors contributing to the soil erosion; such as degree of slope, soil texture, slope aspect, the distance far away from water system, topography elevation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution map of soil erosion index was developed by this project and used to estimate the rainfall-induced soil losses from erosion plots have been established in the study area since 2008. All results indicated that soil erodibility increases with accumulated rainfall amount regardless of soil characteristics measured in the field. Under the same accumulated rainfall amount, the volume of soil erosion also increases with the degree of slope and soil permeability, but decreases with the

  18. Deforestation alters rainfall: a myth or reality

    Hanif, M. F.; Mustafa, M. R.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.


    To cope with the issue of food safety and human shelter, natural landscape has gone through a number of alterations. In the coming future, the expansion of urban land and agricultural farms will likely disrupt the natural environment. Researchers have claimed that land use change may become the most serious issue of the current century. Thus, it is necessary to understand the consequences of land use change on the climatic variables, e.g., rainfall. This study investigated the impact of deforestation on local rainfall. An integrated methodology was adopted to achieve the objectives. Above ground biomass was considered as the indicator of forest areas. Time series data of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor were obtained for the year of 2000, 2005, and 2010. Rainfall data were collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysia. The MODIS time series data were classified and four major classes were developed based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ranges. The results of the classification showed that water, and urban and agricultural lands have increased in their area by 2, 3, and 6%, respectively. On the other hand, the area of forest has decreased 10% collectively from 2000 to 2010. The results of NDVI and rainfall data were analysed by using a linear regression analysis. The results showed a significant relationship at a 90% confidence interval between rainfall and deforestation (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). The results of this study may provide information about the consequences of land use on the climate on the local scale.

  19. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)


    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  20. 基于支持向量机的微波链路雨强反演方法∗%Metho d and exp eriment of rainfall intensity inversion using a microwave link based on supp ort vector machine

    宋堃; 高太长; 刘西川; 印敏; 薛杨


    measures rainfall intensity more accurately because the propagation path of microwave is close to the surface. Many models for inversing rainfall intensity by rain-induced microwave attenuation have been put forward on account of the method advantages. The commonly used model for inversion of rain rate is given by International Telecommunication Union (ITU). However, the model presented by ITU ignores a number of meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity and air pressure, which to some degree reduces the accuracy of the rainfall inversion based on microwave link. Thus, based on the theory of support vector machine (SVM), an inversion method of the path rainfall intensity by using a microwave link is proposed. Starting from the theory of Mie scattering and the atmospheric gas absorption attenuation model, a model of rainfall intensity inversion of line-of-sight microwave links is proposed, which is based on support vector machine, the microwave rain attenuation characteristics and the Gamma drop-size distribution. One line-of-sight microwave link is designed and used to measure the microwave rain-induced attenuation and inverse rainfall. Compared with actual rainfall intensity measured by a disdrometer, inversion rainfall intensity shows a satisfactory result. The correlation coefficient of rain rate is inversed by microwave link based on SVM and that of disdrometer is higher than 0.6 mostly, and the maximum value is 0.9674;the minimum value of the root-mean-square error of the rain rate is 0.5780 mm/h; the minimum value of the error of accumulated rain amount is 0.0080 mm;the relative error of accumulated rain amount is less than 10%and its minimum value is 0.7425%. All these parameters above are superior to ITU’s. Therefore, the inversion result demonstrates the validity, feasibility and accuracy of rainfall inversion model using a microwave link based on SVM. The model we present is of great significance for further improving the accuracy of inversion of

  1. Rainfall and temperature changes and variability in the Upper East Region of Ghana

    Issahaku, Abdul-Rahaman; Campion, Benjamin Betey; Edziyie, Regina


    The aim of the research was to assess the current trend and variation in rainfall and temperature in the Upper East Region, Ghana, using time series moving average analysis and decomposition methods. Meteorological data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency in Accra, Ghana, from 1954 to 2014 were used in the models. The additive decomposition model was used to analyze the rainfall because the seasonal variation was relatively constant over time, while the multiplicative model was used for both the daytime and nighttime temperatures because their seasonal variations increase over time. The monthly maximum and the minimum values for the entire period were as follows: rainfall 455.50 and 0.00 mm, nighttime temperature 29.10°C and 13.25°C and daytime temperature 41.10°C and 26.10°C, respectively. Also, while rainfall was decreasing, nighttime and daytime temperatures were increasing in decadal times. Since both the daytime and nighttime temperatures were increasing and rainfall was decreasing, climate extreme events such as droughts could result and affect agriculture in the region, which is predominantly rain fed. Also, rivers, dams, and dugouts are likely to dry up in the region. It was also observed that there was much variation in rainfall making prediction difficult. Day temperatures were generally high with the months of March and April have been the highest. The months of December recorded the lowest night temperature. Inhabitants are therefore advised to sleep in well-ventilated rooms during the warmest months and wear protective clothing during the cold months to avoid contracting climate-related diseases.

  2. Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Trends in Vaal-Harts Irrigation Scheme, South Africa

    Josiah Adeyemo


    Full Text Available Agriculture is crucially dependent on the timely availability of adequate amount of water and a conducive climate. Temperature and rainfall patterns impact the availability of water for agricultural uses. Therefore, temperature and rainfall are twin important environmental factors in agricultural activities such as tillage, planting, irrigation and mechanization. The characteristics of the Vaal-Harts temperature data for year 1996 to 2010 and rainfall data for year 1983 to 2010 were examined in this study using statistical techniques. Basic statistical properties of the data were determined using the mean, variance, coefficient of variation and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Temperature and rainfall observations with the average of about 17.44 were used. The minimum and maximum temperatures recorded were 9.720C and 23.520C. The Coefficient of variation (CV was found to be about 29.59. Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out; and the variance of this set of observations is 26.625. The average yearly temperature increases insignificantly by a constant of about 0.117 (p = 0.163; 95% CI: -0.054 – 0.288, while rainfall shows decreasing trend annually which means that the dry season will be drier. The involvement of non-zero values in the serial correlation indicated the significance of the deterministic component in the data. The results of this analysis enhance our understanding of the characteristics of air temperature and rainfall in the study area for effective planning of farming operations.

  3. Analysis of the heavy rainfall from Typhoon Plum using Doppler Radar

    Jin, W.; Qu, Y.


    Using reanalysis and observational data and Doppler radar data, the structure and characteristics of the synoptic and mesoscale meteorological background are analyzed for a heavy rainfall over Xiaoshipeng town of Yingkou City in Liaoning province, China. The results show that: (1) several synoptic scale patterns formed the background for the heavy rainfall: the Pacific subtropical high extended to the West; a strong tropical storm named "Plum" moved to the northwest after it had landed; Northwest jet transported a lot of the water vapor to Liaoning; the weak cold air of Baikal Lake moved to south along the ridge before the northwest flow impact to Liaoning. (2) the factors conducive to strong convective precipitation: the existence of a deep wet layer, a narrow CAPE zone and a relative weak vertical wind sheer. (3) there is nonstop generation of new mesoscale convective cells during the heavy rainfall. There exists a maximum wind zone of 24m/s in the lower layer and a strong radar echo with 35dBz above 5km. And the variation of the low level southwest jet is in step with the variation of rainfall amount. The cyclonic convergence of the warm wet air in the mid-low level is a factor triggering and strengthening convection. The nonstop generation of mesoscale convective cells and the water vapor transport from the low level southwest jet are pushing the rainfall radar echo to above 40dBz and lasting for more than 5 hours and are considered the direct cause of this heavy rainfall.

  4. Influence of interannual rainfall anomalies on sea level variations in the tropical Indian Ocean

    Perigaud, Claire; McCreary, Julian P.


    A halo-thermal, reduced-gravity model with four active layers is used to investigate how interannual rainfall anomalies affect sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Indian Ocean. The model is forced by monthly varying winds observed over the period 1980-2000 in two experiments that differ by their rainfall forcing, Run FSU and Run Arkin, forced by climatological and interannually varying rainfall, respectively. Compared to the large impact of wind on SSH (about 30 cm), the impact of rain is much smaller. Its maximum (found in the southeastern Indian Ocean during the rainfall deficits of 1994 and 1997) is only 2 cm. Because rainfall significantly affects model salinity and temperature, the deficits make the layers of Run Arkin colder and saltier than in Run FSU, causing a -5 cm change in sea level. Baroclinic adjustments also occur such that the top (bottom) two layers are thicker (thinner), increasing sea level by 3 cm and hence significantly reducing the SSH change due to steric effects alone. SSH variability in either Run Arkin or Run FSU compares very well with TOPEX data. Although the impact of rainfall on SSH is negligible, salinity variations significantly affect dynamic-height calculations of SSH. In the model, the neglect of salinity variations leads to an error of 5 to 10 cm along the eastern boundary, in the Bay of Bengal, and in the interior ocean south of 8°S. This error is validated by the difference between TOPEX data and SSH derived from observed temperature profiles.

  5. The role of observation uncertainty in the calibration of hydrologic rainfall-runoff models

    T. Ghizzoni


    Full Text Available Hydrologic rainfall-runoff models are usually calibrated with reference to a limited number of recorded flood events, for which rainfall and runoff measurements are available. In this framework, model's parameters consistency depends on the number of both events and hydrograph points used for calibration, and on measurements reliability. Recently, to make users aware of application limits, major attention has been devoted to the estimation of uncertainty in hydrologic modelling. Here a simple numerical experiment is proposed, that allows the analysis of uncertainty in hydrologic rainfall-runoff modelling associated to both quantity and quality of available data.

    A distributed rainfall-runoff model based on geomorphologic concepts has been used. The experiment involves the analysis of an ensemble of model runs, and its overall set up holds if the model is to be applied in different catchments and climates, or even if a different hydrologic model is used. With reference to a set of 100 synthetic rainfall events characterized by a given rainfall volume, the effect of uncertainty in parameters calibration is studied. An artificial truth – perfect observation – is created by using the model in a known configuration. An external source of uncertainty is introduced by assuming realistic, i.e. uncertain, discharge observations to calibrate the model. The range of parameters' values able to "reproduce" the observation is studied. Finally, the model uncertainty is evaluated and discussed. The experiment gives useful indications about the number of both events and data points needed for a careful and stable calibration of a specific model, applied in a given climate and catchment. Moreover, an insight on the expected and maximum error in flood peak discharge simulations is given: errors ranging up to 40% are to be expected if parameters are calibrated on insufficient data sets.

  6. Winter rainfall interception by two mature open-grown trees in Davis, California

    Xiao, Qingfu; McPherson, E. Gregory; Ustin, Susan L.; Grismer, Mark E.; Simpson, James R.


    A rainfall interception measuring system was developed and tested for open-grown trees. The system includes direct measurements of gross precipitation, throughfall and stemflow, as well as continuous collection of micrometeorological data. The data were sampled every second and collected at 30-s time steps using pressure transducers monitoring water depth in collection containers coupled to Campbell CR10 dataloggers. The system was tested on a 9-year-old broadleaf deciduous tree (pear, Pyrus calleryana Bradford) and an 8-year-old broadleaf evergreen tree (cork oak, Quercus suber) representing trees having divergent canopy distributions of foliage and stems. Partitioning of gross precipitation into throughfall, stemflow and canopy interception is presented for these two mature open-grown trees during the 1996-1998 rainy seasons. Interception losses accounted for about 15% of gross precipitation for the pear tree and 27% for the oak tree. The fraction of gross precipitation reaching the ground included 8% by stemflow and 77% by throughfall for the pear tree, as compared with 15% and 58%, respectively, for the oak tree. The analysis of temporal patterns in interception indicates that it was greatest at the beginning of each rainfall event. Rainfall frequency is more significant than rainfall rate and duration in determining interception losses. Both stemflow and throughfall varied with rainfall intensity and wind speed. Increasing precipitation rates and wind speed increased stemflow but reduced throughfall. Analysis of rainfall interception processes at different time-scales indicates that canopy interception varied from 100% at the beginning of the rain event to about 3% at the maximum rain intensity for the oak tree. These values reflected the canopy surface water storage changes during the rain event. The winter domain precipitation at our study site in the Central Valley of California limited our opportunities to collect interception data during non

  7. Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

    Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.


    -band radar data is used. This analysis highlights the interest of implementing X-band radars in urban areas. Indeed such radars provide the rainfall data at a hectometric resolution that would enable a better nowcasting and management of storm water. The multifractal properties of the simulated hydrographs were analysed with the help of simulated rainfall fields of resolution 111 m x 111 m x 1 min, lasting 4 hours, and corresponding to a 5 year return period event. On the whole, the discharge exhibits a good scaling behaviour over the range 4 h - 5 min. Both UM parameters tend to be greater for the discharge than for the rainfall. The notion of maximum probable singularity was used to clarify the consequences on the assessment of extremes. It appears that the urban drainage network basically reproduces the extremes, or only slightly damps them, at least in terms of multifractal statistics. The results were obtained with the financial support from the EU FP7 SMARTesT Project and the Chair "Hydrology for Resilient Cities" (sponsored by Veolia) of Ecole des Ponts ParisTech.

  8. Satellite-rainfall estimation for identification of rainfall thresholds used for landslide/debris flow prediction

    Maggioni, Viviana; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Marra, Francesco; Destro, Elisa; Borga, Marco


    Rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows pose a significant and widespread hazard, resulting in a large number of casualties and enormous economic damages worldwide. Rainfall thresholds are often used to identify the local or regional rainfall conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to result in landslides or debris flows. Rain gauge data are the typical source of information for the definition of these rainfall thresholds. However, in-situ observations over mountainous areas, where these hazards mainly occur, are very sparse or inexistent. Therefore identification and use of gauge-based rainfall thresholds is impossible in many landslide prone areas over the globe. The vast advancements in satellite-based precipitation estimation over the last couple of decades have lead to the creation of a number of global precipitation datasets at various spatiotemporal resolutions. Although several investigations have shown that these datasets can be associated with considerable uncertainty, they provide the only source of precipitation information over many areas around the globe. Therefore it is important to assess their performance in the context of landslide/debris flow prediction and investigate how we can potentially benefit from the information they provide. In this work, we evaluate the performance of three widely used quasi-global satellite precipitation products (3B42v7, PERSIANN and CMORPH) for the identification of rainfall threshold for landslide/debris flow triggering. Products are available at 0.25deg/3h resolution. The study region is focused over the Upper Adige river basin, northern Italy where a detailed database of more than 400 identified debris flows (during period 2000-2015) and a raingauge network of 95 stations, is available. Rain-gauge based rainfall thresholds are compared against satellite-based thresholds to evaluate strengths and limitations in using satellite precipitation estimates for defining rainfall thresholds. Analysis of

  9. General Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia and the Potential Impacts of Local Seas on Rainfall Intensity

    Han Soo Lee


    Full Text Available The relationships between observed rainfall, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and sea surface temperature (SST variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a 1° latitude–longitude grid over Indonesia. The Global Summary of the Day rainfall records provide 26 years of rainfall data (January 1985 to August 2010 for 23 stations throughout the Indonesian islands. The ENSO and SST variations were calculated using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, NINO1 + 2, NINO3, NINO3.4, NINO4, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, and Indian Ocean Basin-wide (IOBW index. The results show that the rainfall in the southern Sumatra and southern Java Islands, which face the Indian Ocean, was positively correlated with the negative IOD, whereas the rainfall in northwestern Sumatra was positively correlated with the positive IOD. In eastern Indonesia, the rainfall was positively correlated with La Niña. The PDO index was also strongly correlated with the rainfall in this region. In central Indonesia, seasonal variations due to monsoons are predominant, and the rainfall exhibited strong negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, indicating that high rainfall occurred during strong La Niña episodes. The highly negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, in central Indonesia led us to analyze the impacts of Indonesian seas on the rainfall in the region. Using four synoptic-scale scenarios, we investigated the relative residence time of Indonesian seawater along the pathways associated with the Pacific-Indian hydraulic head difference. The results show that when both the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans are warm (positive NINO.WEST and negative DMI, the rainfall intensity over central Indonesia is strongest. This increase is explained by the relationship between the residence time of Indonesian seawater and the

  10. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for groundwater ... Correlation analysis between rainfall and observed WLF data at daily scale and ... data are more realistic than those for daily data, when using long time series.

  11. Summer monsoon rainfall prediction for India - Some new ideas

    Varkey, M.J.

    Present methods of forecasting of mean Indian rainfall for summer monsoon season are critically examined. Considering the wide variations in mean seasonal rainfalls (more than 5 to less than 400 cm) and crops in various regions of India...

  12. Understanding the Rainfall Daily Climatology of Northwestern Mexico

    Brito-Castillo, L.


    Maximum monthly precipitation (MMP) over northwestern Mexico is not concurrent because it occurs in different months from July through September. However, instead of occurring progressively from one month to the next as latitude increases, as it might be logic since rains move progressively from south to north as monsoon develops, MMP occurs in July in latitudes of Jalisco state, then MMP shifts to August more to the north in latitudes of Nayarit state and along the eastern coast of the Gulf of California, then it occurs in July in higher latitudes through the main axis of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), and finally MMP shifts to September to the west in the California Peninsula. The maximum monthly streamflow occurs in a similar pattern as MMP does but one month later. When daily rainfall climatology of the region is calculated, i.e. the long-term mean per day from stations with more than 20 years of data between 1940 and 2004, it is possible to understand why the behavior of MMP occurs in a July-August-July pattern from south to north. Preliminary results indicate that at latitudes of Nayarit state normal frequent storms with abundant rains develop at the end of July and through the August. These rains sum to the rains that move from the south to the north, as monsoon develops increasing the volume of precipitations at those latitudes in August. To the east crossing the SMO through northwestern Zacatecas state maximum volume of precipitations also is observed in August. However, in higher latitudes it is not observed any increment of rains in August and consequently maximum volume of precipitations occurs in July. To understand the dynamics of the rains at the latitudes of Nayarit state it results necessary to investigate the source of these local rains and explain why the increase of precipitations in August is limited at those latitudes.

  13. Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

    Molini, Annalisa; Katul, Gabriel; Porporato, Amilcare


    Possible linkages between climatic fluctuations in rainfall at low frequencies and local intensity fluctuations within single storms is now receiving significant attention in climate change research. To progress on a narrower scope of this problem, the cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by either convective or frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency buildup from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of its heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-tailed power law pdfs across finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. A concomitant marked asymmetry buildup also emerges across finer time scales necessitating skewed probability laws for quantifying the scale-wise evolution of rainfall pdfs. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails, peakedness and asymmetry appearance is proposed and tested by using a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the scale wise evolution of rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction γ and a tail asymmetry coefficient c, also functions of q.

  14. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    T. P. Burt


    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  15. Rainfall Mechanisms for the Dominant Rainfall Mode over Zimbabwe Relative to ENSO and/or IODZM

    Desmond Manatsa


    Full Text Available Zimbabwe’s homogeneous precipitation regions are investigated by means of principal component analysis (PCA with regard to the underlying processes related to ENSO and/or Indian Ocean Dipole zonal mode (IODZM. Station standardized precipitation index rather than direct rainfall values represent the data matrix used in the PCA. The results indicate that the country’s rainfall is highly homogeneous and is dominantly described by the first principal mode (PC1. This leading PC can be used to represent the major rainfall patterns affecting the country, both spatially and temporarily. The current practice of subdividing the country into the two seasonal rainfall forecast zones becomes irrelevant. Partial correlation analysis shows that PC1 is linked more to the IODZM than to the traditional ENSO which predominantly demonstrates insignificant association with PC1. The pure IODZM composite is linked to the most intense rainfall suppression mechanisms, while the pure El Niño composite is linked to rainfall enhancing mechanisms.

  16. Investigating changes over time of annual rainfall in Zimbabwe

    D. Mazvimavi


    Full Text Available There is increasing concern in southern Africa about the possible decline of rainfall as a result of global warming. Some studies concluded that average rainfall in Zimbabwe had declined by 10% or 100 mm during the last 100 years. This paper investigates the validity of the assumption that rainfall is declining in Zimbabwe. Time series of annual rainfall, and total rainfall for (a the early part of the rainy season, October-November-December (OND, and (b the mid to end of the rainy season, January-February-March (JFM are analysed for the presence of trends using the Mann-Kendall test, and for the decline or increase during years with either high or low rainfall using quantile regression analysis. The Pettitt test has also been utilized to examine the possible existence of change or break-points in the rainfall time series. The analysis has been done for 40 rainfall stations with records starting during the 1892–1940 period and ending in 2000, and representative of all the rainfall regions.

    The Mann-Kendal test did not identify a significant trend at all the 40 stations, and therefore there is no proof that the average rainfall at each of these stations has changed. Quantile regression analysis revealed a decline in annual rainfall less than the tenth percentile at only one station, and increasing of rainfall greater than the ninetieth percentile at another station. All the other stations had no changes over time in both the low and high rainfall at the annual interval. Climate change effects are therefore not yet statistically significant within time series of total seasonal and annual rainfall in Zimbabwe. The general perception about declining rainfall is likely due to the presence of multidecadal variability characterized by bunching of years with above (e.g. 1951–1958, 1973–1980 and below (e.g. 1959–1972, 1982–1994 average rainfall.

  17. Investigation of the aerosol-cloud-rainfall association over the Indian summer monsoon region

    Sarangi, Chandan; Nand Tripathi, Sachchida; Kanawade, Vijay P.; Koren, Ilan; Sivanand Pai, D.


    Monsoonal rainfall is the primary source of surface water in India. Using 12 years of in situ and satellite observations, we examined the association of aerosol loading with cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, cloud top temperature, and daily surface rainfall over the Indian summer monsoon region (ISMR). Our results showed positive correlations between aerosol loading and cloud properties as well as rainfall. A decrease in outgoing longwave radiation and an increase in reflected shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere with an increase in aerosol loading further indicates a possible seminal role of aerosols in the deepening of cloud systems. Significant perturbation in liquid- and ice-phase microphysics was also evident over the ISMR. For the polluted cases, delay in the onset of collision-coalescence processes and an enhancement in the condensation efficiency allows for more condensate mass to be lifted up to the mixed colder phases. This results in the higher mass concentration of larger-sized ice-phase hydrometeors and, therefore, implies that the delayed rain processes eventually lead to more surface rainfall. A numerical simulation of a typical rainfall event case over the ISMR using a spectral bin microphysical scheme coupled with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF-SBM) model was also performed. Simulated microphysics also illustrated that the initial suppression of warm rain coupled with an increase in updraft velocity under high aerosol loading leads to enhanced super-cooled liquid droplets above freezing level and ice-phase hydrometeors, resulting in increased accumulated surface rainfall. Thus, both observational and numerical analysis suggest that high aerosol loading may induce cloud invigoration, thereby increasing surface rainfall over the ISMR. While the meteorological variability influences the strength of the observed positive association, our results suggest that the persistent aerosol-associated deepening of cloud systems and an

  18. Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

    M. P. Mittermaier


    Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

    The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

  19. [Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates].

    González Chávez, Rosabel


    In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

  20. Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

    Mittermaier, M. P.


    A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS) and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used. The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

  1. Ectoine accumulation in Brevibacterium epidermis.

    Onraedt, Annelies; De Muynck, Cassandra; Walcarius, Bart; Soetaert, Wim; Vandamme, Erick


    As a halotolerant bacterial species, Brevibacterium epidermis DSM 20659 can grow at relatively high salinity, tolerating up to 2 M NaCl. It synthesizes ectoine and the intracellular content increases with the medium salinity, with a maximum of 0.14 g ectoine/g CDW at 1 M NaCl. Sugar-stressed cells do not synthesize ectoine. Ectoine synthesis is also affected by the presence of external osmolytes. Added betaine is taken up and completely replaced ectoine, while L-proline is only temporarily accumulated after which ectoine is synthesized. The strain can metabolize ectoine; L-glutamate is a better carbon source for ectoine synthesis than L-aspartate.

  2. Rainfall spatiotemporal variability relation to wetlands hydroperiods

    Serrano-Hidalgo, Carmen; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Fernandez-Naranjo, Nuria


    Doñana natural space (Southwestern Spain) is one of the largest protected wetlands in Europe. The wide marshes present in this natural space have such ecological value that this wetland has been declared a Ramsar reserve in 1982. Apart from the extensive marsh, there are also small lagoons and seasonally flooded areas which are likewise essential to maintain a wide variety of valuable habitats. Hydroperiod, the length of time each point remains flooded along an annual cycle, is a critical ecological parameter that shapes aquatic plants and animals distribution and determines available habitat for many of the living organisms in the marshes. Recently, there have been published two different works estimating the hydroperiod of Doñana lagoons with Landsat Time Series images (Cifuentes et al., 2015; Díaz-Delgado et al., 2016). In both works the flooding cycle hydroperiod in Doñana marshes reveals a flooding regime mainly driven by rainfall, evapotranspiration, topography and local hydrological management actions. The correlation found between rainfall and hydroperiod is studied differently in both works. While in one the rainfall is taken from one raingauge (Cifuentes et al., 2015), the one performed by Díaz-Delgado (2016) uses annual rainfall maps interpolated with the inverse of the distance method. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability in this area can be highly significant; however the amount of this importance has not been quantified at the moment. In the present work the geostatistical tool known as spatiotemporal variogram is used to study the rainfall spatiotemporal variability. The spacetime package implemented in R (Pebesma, 2012) facilities its computation from a high rainfall data base of more than 100 raingauges from 1950 to 2016. With the aid of these variograms the rainfall spatiotemporal variability is quantified. The principal aim of the present work is the study of the relation between the rainfall spatiotemporal variability and the

  3. The Maximum Density of Water.

    Greenslade, Thomas B., Jr.


    Discusses a series of experiments performed by Thomas Hope in 1805 which show the temperature at which water has its maximum density. Early data cast into a modern form as well as guidelines and recent data collected from the author provide background for duplicating Hope's experiments in the classroom. (JN)

  4. Abolishing the maximum tension principle

    Dabrowski, Mariusz P


    We find the series of example theories for which the relativistic limit of maximum tension $F_{max} = c^2/4G$ represented by the entropic force can be abolished. Among them the varying constants theories, some generalized entropy models applied both for cosmological and black hole horizons as well as some generalized uncertainty principle models.

  5. Abolishing the maximum tension principle

    Mariusz P. Da̧browski


    Full Text Available We find the series of example theories for which the relativistic limit of maximum tension Fmax=c4/4G represented by the entropic force can be abolished. Among them the varying constants theories, some generalized entropy models applied both for cosmological and black hole horizons as well as some generalized uncertainty principle models.

  6. An empirical formula to estimate rainfall intensity in Kupwara region of Kashmir valley, J and K, India

    Dar Abdul Qayoom


    Full Text Available Knowledge of rainfall extremes particularly their magnitude and frequency, as embodied in Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF relationships and IDF curves is fundamental to many engineering problems such as design of hydraulic structures, urban drainage system, water resources projects and many others. The objective of this study is to obtain IDF relationships and curves for the Kupwara region of Kashmir valley in Jammu and Kashmir, India. Three different frequency distributions namely the Gumbel distribution, the Pearson Type III distribution and the Log-Pearson Type III distribution were fitted to the rainfall data to obtain rainfall intensities for selected return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years and durations (0.16, 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. Regional constants in IDF relations were found using the Sherman Morrison method and results were compared based on the Chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Results obtained using all distributions showed a similar trend. However, the Pearson Type III distribution emerges to be the best fit for the rainfall data of the region. Results revealed that higher rainfall intensities have shorter durations. Maximum rainfall intensity 81.13 mm/hr as per the best fit relation occurs with a return period of 100 years for 0.16 hours duration.

  7. Random cascade driven rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology: An evaluation of six models and a new generator

    Licznar, Paweł; Łomotowski, Janusz; Rupp, David E.


    Six variations of multiplicative random cascade models for generating fine-resolution (i.e., 5-minute interval) rainfall time series were evaluated for rainfall in Wroclaw, Poland. Of these variations, one included a new beta-normal generator for a microcanonical cascade. This newly proposed model successfully reproduces the statistical behavior of local 5-minute rainfalls, in terms of intermittency as well as variability. In contrast, both the canonical cascade models with either constant or time-scaled parameters and a microcanonical cascade model with a beta generator substantially underestimate 5-minute maximum rainfall intensities. The canonical models also fail to properly reproduce the intermittency of the rainfall process across a range of timescales. New observations are also made concerning the histograms of the breakdown coefficients (BDC). The tendency of the BDC histograms to have values exactly equal to 0.5 is identified and explained by the quality of pluviograph records. Moreover, the hierarchical evolution of BDC histograms from beta-like for long time steps to beta-normal histograms for short time steps is observed for the first time. The potential advantage is shown of synthetic high resolution rainfall time series generated by the revised microcanonical model for use in hydrology, especially hydrodynamic modelling of urban drainage networks.

  8. Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002

    Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.


    NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America ) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model. Review of other latent heating algorithms will be discussed in the workshop.

  9. Seamless Hourly Rainfall Ensemble Forecasts for 0 - 10 days

    Cooper, Shaun; Seed, Alan


    days. A 50 ensemble is output a 2 km by 2 km grid, over 1000 km by 1000 km domains. A year of ensemble forecasts (accumulated to daily rainfall totals) have been verified against the daily Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) analyses (0.05 degree x 0.05 degree resolution) that are based on an interpolation between rain gauges and show the system is able to produce reliable forecasts out to 5 days over these domains with appropriate ensemble spread.




    Full Text Available Aggressiveness erosive force of rainfall is the express of kinetic energy and potential energy of rain water runoff on slopes. In the absence of a database for the analysis of parameters that define the torrencial rainfall, the rainfall erosivity factor was calculated by Fournier Index, Modified Fournier Index based on the monthly and annual precipitation.


    Ushiyama, Motoyuki

    "Guerilla heavy rainfall" is a newly-coined word by mass media of Japan. The four major newspaper publishing companies began to use this word frequently from the beginning of August, 2008. The definition of "Guerilla heavy rainfall" is not clear. It was found from the result of newspaper article analysis from 2008 to 2009 that short-time very heavy rainfall events are called "Guerilla heavy rainfall". In this study, the rainfall event of 80mm or more of rainfalls of 1 hour and 149mm or less of rainfalls was defined as "Guerilla heavy rainfall". 104 events of "Guerilla heavy rainfall" were extracted from AMeDAS precipitation data from 1979 to 2008. There were two victims of these heavy rainfall events in total. They killed at basement or underpass. Although inundation above the floor level occurred in 38% of event, the damage of 100 or more buildings was 9%. We may say that "Guerilla heavy rainfall" does not cause large-scale damage. However, it is necessary to keep in mind that damage caused by "Guerilla heavy rainfall" is generated well in high-risk area of flood, such as basement, underpass, low land and river park.

  12. Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in the extratropical regions with high rainfall intensity

    Borodina, Aleksandra; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto


    Model projections of regional changes in heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model response in heavy rainfall to rising temperatures. We use spatial aggregation to reduce the major role of internal variability and evaluate the heavy rainfall response to warming temperatures with observations. We show that in the regions with high rainfall intensity and for which gridded observations exist, most of the models underestimate the historical scaling of heavy rainfall and the land fraction with significant positive heavy rainfall scalings during the historical period. The historical behavior is correlated with the projected heavy rainfall intensification across models allowing to apply an observational constraint, i.e., to calibrate multimodel ensembles with observations in order to narrow the range of projections. The constraint suggests a substantially stronger intensification of future heavy rainfall than the multimodel mean.

  13. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos


    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha(-1)h(-1)) compared to winter (87MJmmha(-1)h(-1)). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R(2) values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

  14. Correcting Errors in Catchment-Scale Satellite Rainfall Accumulation Using Microwave Satellite Soil Moisture Products

    Ryu, D.; Crow, W. T.


    Streamflow forecasting in the poorly gauged or ungauged catchments is very difficult mainly due to the absence of the input forcing data for forecasting models. This challenge poses a threat to human safety and industry in the areas where proper warning system is not provided. Currently, a number of studies are in progress to calibrate streamflow models without relying on ground observations as an effort to construct a streamflow forecasting systems in the ungauged catchments. Also, recent advances in satellite altimetry and innovative application of the optical has enabled mapping streamflow rate and flood extent in the remote areas. In addition, remotely sensed hydrological variables such as the real-time satellite precipitation data, microwave soil moisture retrievals, and surface thermal infrared observations have the great potential to be used as a direct input or signature information to run the forecasting models. In this work, we evaluate a real-time satellite precipitation product, TRMM 3B42RT, and correct errors of the product using the microwave satellite soil moisture products over 240 catchments in Australia. The error correction is made by analyzing the difference between output soil moisture of a simple model forced by the TRMM product and the satellite retrievals of soil moisture. The real-time satellite precipitation products before and after the error correction are compared with the daily gauge-interpolated precipitation data produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The error correction improves overall accuracy of the catchment-scale satellite precipitation, especially the root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, and the false alarm ratio (FAR), however, only a marginal improvement is observed in the probability of detection (POD). It is shown that the efficiency of the error correction is affected by the surface vegetation density and the annual precipitation of the catchments.

  15. LANDSAT Range Resource Information System. [a user evaluation of green forage and rainfall accumulation maps

    Boyd, W. E.; Harlan, J. C.


    A series of test products were developed from LANDSAT data sets for North Central Texas that paralleled the needs of ranchers, technical personnel, and the media. The products and evaluation questionnaires were mailed to approximately 150 ranchers who had reported an interest in evaluating the information systems. In addition to the rancher group, fourteen media people and a thirty-three member group in the agri business/technical community was also chosen to receive test products. The group responses are analyzed. Examples of the test products and associated questionnaires are included.

  16. Changes in the rainfall-streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

    Pieri, Linda; Rondini, Davide; Ventura, Francesca


    Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on this phenomenon, long data-sets of meteorological data as well as temperature and rainfall extreme events are needed, since they are important climate variability indicators. In a small semi-agricultural catchment of the Italian Apennines, drained by the Centonara Stream, weather data have been monitored for 30 years (1986-2015). Here, their trend was identified with Mann-Kendall test, and the temperature and precipitation extremes were characterized by means of specific indices. Data were analyzed at event, daily, seasonal, and annual bases. In addition, to understand implications of rainfall patterns on catchment hydrological response, a total of 388 rainfall-streamflow events (recorded during 1994-2009) were analyzed. Results showed a significant increase of temperature (minimum (Tn), mean (Tm), and maximum (Tx)), both at annual and seasonal base, except for Winter, with an annual mean increase of 0.08, 0.09, and 0.13 °C year-1 for Tn, Tm, and Tx, respectively. Annual rainfall data showed a positive trend for the number of wet days, but not in the quantity. In Winter, the rainfall amount and the number of wet days increased. The annual number of rainfall extreme events ( P > 20.2 mm and D > 18.3 h) significantly increased, especially in spring and autumn. The rainfall-streamflow relationship suggested that the flow response of the Centonara Stream depends mainly on the rainfall amount. So, since the number of extreme events ( P > 20.2 mm) is increasing in spring and autumn, an increase of events with high streamflow in these seasons may occur.

  17. Comparison of rainfall and stemflow peak intensities and infiltration patterns for a mature coastal forest in British Columbia, Canada

    van Meerveld, Ilja; Spencer, Sheena


    Most studies on stemflow have focused on the amount of stemflow in different forests or for different rainfall events. So far, few studies have looked at how stemflow intensity varies during rainfall events and how peak stemflow intensities compare to peak rainfall intensities. High stemflow intensities at the base of the tree, where roots and other preferential flow pathways are prevalent, may lead to faster and deeper infiltration of stemflow than rainfall and thus affect soil moisture dynamics and potentially also subsurface stormflow generation. We measured stemflow intensities for three Western hemlock, two Western red cedar, two Douglas-fir and one Birch tree in a mature coniferous forest in coastal British Columbia to determine how stemflow intensities were related to rainfall intensity. We sprayed a blue dye tracer on two Western hemlock trees (29 and 52 cm diameter at breast height (DBH)) to determine how stemflow water flows through the soil and to what depth it infiltrates. We also applied the blue dye tracer to an area between the trees to compare infiltration of stemflow with rainfall. Stemflow increased linearly with event total precipitation for all trees. The larger trees almost exclusively had funneling ratios (i.e. the volume of stemflow per unit basal area divided by the rainfall) smaller than one, regardless of species and event size. The funneling ratios for the small trees were generally larger for larger events (up to a funneling ratio of 20) but there was considerable scatter in this relation. Trees with a DBH clay layer but where roots were able to penetrate the clay layer, the infiltrating water flowed deeper into the soil and (almost) reached the soil-bedrock interface. Stemflow appeared to infiltrate deeper (122 cm) than rainfall (85 cm) but this difference was in part due to variations in maximum soil depth. These results suggest that even though stemflow is only a minor component of the water balance, the double funnelling of stemflow

  18. Impact of rainfall on diarrheal disease risk associated with unimproved water and sanitation.

    Bhavnani, Darlene; Goldstick, Jason E; Cevallos, William; Trueba, Gabriel; Eisenberg, Joseph N S


    Diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity in areas with limited access to safe water and sanitation. As water and sanitation interventions continue to be implemented, it will be important to understand the ecological context in which they can prevent diarrhea. We conducted six serial case control studies in Ecuador to estimate the risk of diarrhea from unimproved water and sanitation and the potential for effect modification by rainfall. Unimproved water source and unimproved sanitation increased the adjusted odds of diarrhea (odds ratio [OR] = 3.6, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.7-7.8 and OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.5, respectively). The OR associated with an unimproved water source was highest after maximum rainfall (OR = 6.8, 95% CI = 1.9-24.5), whereas the OR associated with unimproved sanitation was highest after minimal rainfall (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.3-6.6). Our finding that use of safe water sources and improved sanitation facilities are most protective under opposing rainfall conditions highlights the need for integrated interventions to reduce the burden of diarrheal disease.

  19. Characteristics of Precipitation Features and Annual Rainfall during the TRMM Era in the Central Andes

    Mohr, Karen I.; Slayback, Daniel; Yager, Karina


    The central Andes extends from 7 deg to 21 deg S, with its eastern boundary defined by elevation (1000m and greater) and its western boundary by the coastline. The authors used a combination of surface observations, reanalysis, and the University of Utah Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation features (PF) database to understand the characteristics of convective systems and associated rainfall in the central Andes during the TRMM era, 1998-2012. Compared to other dry (West Africa), mountainous (Himalayas), and dynamically linked (Amazon) regions in the tropics, the central Andes PF population was distinct from these other regions, with small and weak PFs dominating its cumulative distribution functions and annual rainfall totals. No more than 10% of PFs in the central Andes met any of the thresholds used to identify and define deep convection (minimum IR cloud-top temperatures, minimum 85-GHz brightness temperature, maximum height of the 40-dBZ echo). For most of the PFs, available moisture was limited (less than 35mm) and instability low (less than 500 J kg(exp -1)). The central Andes represents a largely stable, dry to arid environment, limiting system development and organization. Hence, primarily short-duration events (less than 60 min) characterized by shallow convection and light to light-moderate rainfall rates (0.5-4.0 mm h(exp -1)) were found.

  20. Key pluvial parameters in assessing rainfall erosivity in the south-west development region, Romania

    Monica Dumitraşcu; Carmen-Sofia Dragotă; Ines Grigorescu; Costin Dumitraşcu; Alina Vlăduţ


    Located in the south-western part of Romania, the south-west development region overlaps the main relief forms: the Carpathians mountains, the Getic Subcarpathians, the Getic piedmont, the Romanian plain and the Danube valley. The study aims at providing an overview on the main pluvial parameters and their role in assessing rainfall erosivity in the study area. The authors assessed the occurrence, frequency and magnitude of some of the most significant pluvial parameters and their impact on the climatic aggressiveness in the study area. Thus, the monthly and annual mean and extreme climatic values for different rainfall related parameters (e.g., maximum amounts of precipitation/24 hr, heavy rainfall), as well as relevant indices and indicators for pluvial aggressiveness (Fournier, Fournier Modified, Angot) were calculated. The rainfall erosivity was assessed in order to provide both the spatial distribution of the triggering extreme weather phenomena and the resulted intensity classes for the analysed indices and indicators. The authors used long-term precipitation records (1961–2010) for the selected relevant meteorological stations distributed throughout all analysed relief units.

  1. Strategy for introduction of rainwater management facility considering rainfall event applied on new apartment complex

    KIM, H.; Lee, D. K.; Yoo, S.


    As regional torrential rains become frequent due to climate change, urban flooding happens very often. That is why it is necessary to prepare for integrated measures against a wide range of rainfall. This study proposes introduction of effective rainwater management facilities to maximize the rainwater runoff reductions and recover natural water circulation for unpredictable extreme rainfall in apartment complex scale. The study site is new apartment complex in Hanam located in east of Seoul, Korea. It has an area of 7.28ha and is analysed using the EPA-SWMM and STORM model. First, it is analyzed that green infrastructure(GI) had efficiency of flood reduction at the various rainfall events and soil characteristics, and then the most effective value of variables are derived. In case of rainfall event, Last 10 years data of 15 minutes were used for analysis. A comparison between A(686mm rainfall during 22days) and B(661mm/4days) knew that soil infiltration of A is 17.08% and B is 5.48% of the rainfall. Reduction of runoff after introduction of the GI of A is 24.76% and B is 6.56%. These results mean that GI is effective to small rainfall intensity, and artificial rainwater retarding reservoir is needed at extreme rainfall. Second, set of target year is conducted for the recovery of hydrological cycle at the predevelopment. And an amount of infiltration, evaporation, surface runoff of the target year and now is analysed on the basis of land coverage, and an arrangement of LID facilities. Third, rainwater management scenarios are established and simulated by the SWMM-LID. Rainwater management facilities include GI(green roof, porous pavement, vegetative swale, ecological pond, and raingarden), and artificial rainwater. Design scenarios are categorized five type: 1)no GI, 2)conventional GI design(current design), 3)intensive GI design, 4)GI design+rainwater retarding reservoir 5)maximized rainwater retarding reservoir. Intensive GI design is to have attribute value to

  2. Hydrological response of an Alpine catchment to rainfall and snowmelt events

    Penna, D.; van Meerveld, H. J.; Zuecco, G.; Dalla Fontana, G.; Borga, M.


    Alpine catchments are important sources of fresh water but compared to lower altitude catchments our understanding of the hydrological functioning of these catchments during rainfall and snowmelt events is still limited. The objectives of this study were i) to identify the dominant runoff generation mechanisms in the 0.14-km2 Bridge Creek Catchment in the Italian Dolomites during nine rainfall-runoff events and six snowmelt-runoff events in spring, summer and autumn of 2010-2012; and ii) to assess the effect of the selection of the pre-event water sample on the isotope hydrograph separation results. The isotopic composition of the pre-event water was determined by either a stream water sample taken prior to the event or the average of 19 stream water samples taken during baseflow conditions. The hydrograph separation results for the two methods were very similar for the rainfall events but differed for the snowmelt events. Average event water contributions ranged between 4% and 19% or 2% and 20% of the total runoff during rainfall events, and between 7% and 25% or 9% and 38% during snowmelt events, depending on the method used to determine the isotopic composition of pre-event water. Event water contributions were important during large rainfall events, intense rainfall events and late in the snowmelt season, with maximum event water contributions up to 37% and 46%, depending on the method used for determining the pre-event water composition. The electrical conductivity of stream water tended to first decrease and reach a minimum before peak streamflow and then to increase above pre-event values. The results of this study suggest that during dry conditions, direct channel precipitation and overland flow from the permanently saturated part of the riparian zone dominated the runoff response, with limited contributions of riparian or hillslope groundwater. During wet or very wet conditions (large rainfall events or peak snowmelt), saturation overland flow increased

  3. Physically-based quantitative analysis of soil erosion induced by heavy rainfall on steep slopes

    Della Sala, Maria; Cuomo, Sabatino; Novità, Antonio


    Heavy rainstorms cause either shallow landslides or soil superficial erosion in steep hillslopes covered by coarse unsaturated soils (Cascini et al., 2013), even over large areas (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013a). The triggering stage of both phenomena is related to ground infiltration, runoff and overland flow (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013), which are key processes to be investigated. In addition, the mobilization of solid particles deserves a proper physical-based modeling whether a quantitative estimation of solid particles discharge at the outlet of mountain basin is required. In this work, the approaches for soil superficial erosion analysis are firstly reviewed; then, a relevant case study of two medium-sized mountain basins, affected by flow-like phenomena with huge consequences (Cascini et al., 2009) is presented, which motivates a parametric numerical analysis with a physically-based model carried out for a wide class of soil properties and rainfall scenarios (Cuomo et al., 2013b). The achieved results outline that the peak discharge of water and solid particles driven by overland flow depends on rainfall intensity while volumetric solid concentration within the washout is related to the morphometric features of the whole mountain basin. Furthermore, soil suction is outlined as a key factor for the spatial-temporal evolution of infiltration and runoff in the basin, also affecting the discharge of water and solid particles at the outlet of the basin. Based on these insights, selected cases are analyzed aimed to provide a wide class of possible slope erosion scenarios. It is shown that, provided the same amount of cumulated rainfall, the sequence of high and low intensity rainfall events strongly affects the time-discharge at the outlet of the basin without significant variations of the maximum volumetric solid concentration. References Cascini, L., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S., Sorbino, G. (2009). Detection of mechanisms for destructive landslides in Campania region

  4. Maximum Genus of Strong Embeddings

    Er-ling Wei; Yan-pei Liu; Han Ren


    The strong embedding conjecture states that any 2-connected graph has a strong embedding on some surface. It implies the circuit double cover conjecture: Any 2-connected graph has a circuit double cover.Conversely, it is not true. But for a 3-regular graph, the two conjectures are equivalent. In this paper, a characterization of graphs having a strong embedding with exactly 3 faces, which is the strong embedding of maximum genus, is given. In addition, some graphs with the property are provided. More generally, an upper bound of the maximum genus of strong embeddings of a graph is presented too. Lastly, it is shown that the interpolation theorem is true to planar Halin graph.

  5. Borneo vortex and mesoscale convective rainfall

    Koseki, S.; Koh, T.-Y.; Teo, C.-K.


    We have investigated how the Borneo vortex develops over the equatorial South China Sea under cold surge conditions in December during the Asian winter monsoon. Composite analysis using reanalysis and satellite data sets has revealed that absolute vorticity and water vapour are transported by strong cold surges from upstream of the South China Sea to around the Equator. Rainfall is correspondingly enhanced over the equatorial South China Sea. A semi-idealized experiment reproduced the Borneo vortex over the equatorial South China Sea during a "perpetual" cold surge. The Borneo vortex is manifested as a meso-α cyclone with a comma-shaped rainband in the northeast sector of the cyclone. Vorticity budget analysis showed that the growth/maintenance of the meso-α cyclone was achieved mainly by the vortex stretching. This vortex stretching is due to the upward motion forced by the latent heat release around the cyclone centre. The comma-shaped rainband consists of clusters of meso-β-scale rainfall cells. The intense rainfall in the comma head (comma tail) is generated by the confluence of the warmer and wetter cyclonic easterly flow (cyclonic southeasterly flow) and the cooler and drier northeasterly surge in the northwestern (northeastern) sector of the cyclone. Intense upward motion and heavy rainfall resulted due to the low-level convergence and the favourable thermodynamic profile at the confluence zone. In particular, the convergence in the northwestern sector is responsible for maintenance of the meso-α cyclone system. At both meso-α and meso-β scales, the convergence is ultimately caused by the deviatoric strain in the confluence wind pattern but is significantly self-enhanced by the nonlinear dynamics.

  6. Rainfall Predictions From Global Salinity Anomalies

    Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.; Liu, T.


    We have discovered that sea surface salinity (SSS) is a better seasonal predictor of terrestrial rainfall than sea surface temperature (SST) or the usual pressure modes of atmospheric variability. In many regions, a 3-6 month lead of SSS over rainfall on land can be seen. While some lead is guaranteed due to the simple conservation of water and salt, the robust seasonal lead for SSS in some places is truly remarkable, often besting traditional SST and pressure predictors by a very significant margin. One mechanism for the lead has been identified in the recycling of water on land through soil moisture in regional ocean to land moisture transfers. However, a global search has yielded surprising long-range SSS-rainfall teleconnections. It is suggested that these teleconnections indicate a marked sensitivity of the atmosphere to where rain falls on the ocean. That is, the latent heat of evaporation is by far the largest energy transfer from ocean to atmosphere and where the atmosphere cashes in this energy in the form of precipitation is well recorded in SSS. SSS also responds to wind driven advection and mixing. Thus, SSS appears to be a robust indicator of atmospheric energetics and moisture transport and the timing and location of rainfall events is suggested to influence the subsequent evolution of the atmospheric circulation. In a sense, if the fall of a rain drop is at least equivalent to the flap of a butterfly's wings, the influence of a billion butterfly rainstorm allows for systematic predictions beyond the chaotic nature of the turbulent atmosphere. SSS is found to be particularly effective in predicting extreme precipitation or droughts, which makes its continued monitoring very important for building societal resilience against natural disasters.

  7. D(Maximum)=P(Argmaximum)

    Remizov, Ivan D


    In this note, we represent a subdifferential of a maximum functional defined on the space of all real-valued continuous functions on a given metric compact set. For a given argument, $f$ it coincides with the set of all probability measures on the set of points maximizing $f$ on the initial compact set. This complete characterization lies in the heart of several important identities in microeconomics, such as Roy's identity, Sheppard's lemma, as well as duality theory in production and linear programming.

  8. Interception of rainfall and surface runoff in the Brazilian Cerrado

    Tarso Oliveira, Paulo; Wendland, Edson; Nearing, Mark; Perea Martins, João


    CI. The average surface runoff under undisturbed Cerrado was less than 1% of the P, and did not have significant correlation (p > 0.05) with P, but had a significant correlation with maximum 30 minute rainfall intensity (I30). This low value for surface runoff indicates that the forest ?oor has a strong influence over surface runoff generation under undisturbed Cerrado. This process is poorly studied; however, we believe this can be a key to understanding the surface runoff generation under undisturbed Cerrado, and in other tropical vegetation, such as the Amazon rainforest.

  9. Artificial Neural Network for Monthly Rainfall Rate Prediction

    Purnomo, H. D.; Hartomo, K. D.; Prasetyo, S. Y. J.


    Rainfall rate forecasting plays an important role in various human activities. Rainfall forecasting is a challenging task due to the uncertainty of natural phenomena. In this paper, two neural network models are proposed for monthly rainfall rate forecasting. The performance of the proposed model is assesses based on monthly rainfall rate in Ampel, Boyolali, from 2001-2013. The experiment results show that the accuracy of the first model is much better than the accuracy of the second model. Its average accuracy is just above 98%, while the accuracy of the second model is approximately 75%. In additional, both models tend to perform better when the fluctuation of rainfall is low.

  10. The Testability of Maximum Magnitude

    Clements, R.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gonzalez, A.; Zoeller, G.; Schneider, M.


    Recent disasters caused by earthquakes of unexpectedly large magnitude (such as Tohoku) illustrate the need for reliable assessments of the seismic hazard. Estimates of the maximum possible magnitude M at a given fault or in a particular zone are essential parameters in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), but their accuracy remains untested. In this study, we discuss the testability of long-term and short-term M estimates and the limitations that arise from testing such rare events. Of considerable importance is whether or not those limitations imply a lack of testability of a useful maximum magnitude estimate, and whether this should have any influence on current PSHA methodology. We use a simple extreme value theory approach to derive a probability distribution for the expected maximum magnitude in a future time interval, and we perform a sensitivity analysis on this distribution to determine if there is a reasonable avenue available for testing M estimates as they are commonly reported today: devoid of an appropriate probability distribution of their own and estimated only for infinite time (or relatively large untestable periods). Our results imply that any attempt at testing such estimates is futile, and that the distribution is highly sensitive to M estimates only under certain optimal conditions that are rarely observed in practice. In the future we suggest that PSHA modelers be brutally honest about the uncertainty of M estimates, or must find a way to decrease its influence on the estimated hazard.

  11. Alternative Multiview Maximum Entropy Discrimination.

    Chao, Guoqing; Sun, Shiliang


    Maximum entropy discrimination (MED) is a general framework for discriminative estimation based on maximum entropy and maximum margin principles, and can produce hard-margin support vector machines under some assumptions. Recently, the multiview version of MED multiview MED (MVMED) was proposed. In this paper, we try to explore a more natural MVMED framework by assuming two separate distributions p1( Θ1) over the first-view classifier parameter Θ1 and p2( Θ2) over the second-view classifier parameter Θ2 . We name the new MVMED framework as alternative MVMED (AMVMED), which enforces the posteriors of two view margins to be equal. The proposed AMVMED is more flexible than the existing MVMED, because compared with MVMED, which optimizes one relative entropy, AMVMED assigns one relative entropy term to each of the two views, thus incorporating a tradeoff between the two views. We give the detailed solving procedure, which can be divided into two steps. The first step is solving our optimization problem without considering the equal margin posteriors from two views, and then, in the second step, we consider the equal posteriors. Experimental results on multiple real-world data sets verify the effectiveness of the AMVMED, and comparisons with MVMED are also reported.

  12. Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

    Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.


    Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

  13. Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara.

    Tierney, Jessica E; Pausata, Francesco S R; deMenocal, Peter B


    During the "Green Sahara" period (11,000 to 5000 years before the present), the Sahara desert received high amounts of rainfall, supporting diverse vegetation, permanent lakes, and human populations. Our knowledge of rainfall rates and the spatiotemporal extent of wet conditions has suffered from a lack of continuous sedimentary records. We present a quantitative reconstruction of western Saharan precipitation derived from leaf wax isotopes in marine sediments. Our data indicate that the Green Sahara extended to 31°N and likely ended abruptly. We find evidence for a prolonged "pause" in Green Sahara conditions 8000 years ago, coincident with a temporary abandonment of occupational sites by Neolithic humans. The rainfall rates inferred from our data are best explained by strong vegetation and dust feedbacks; without these mechanisms, climate models systematically fail to reproduce the Green Sahara. This study suggests that accurate simulations of future climate change in the Sahara and Sahel will require improvements in our ability to simulate vegetation and dust feedbacks.

  14. Statistical distribution of rainfall in Uttarakhand, India

    Kumar, Vikram; Shanu; Jahangeer


    Understanding of rainfall is an important issue for Uttarakhand, India which having varied topography and due to that extreme rainfall causes quick runoff which warns structural and functional safety of large structures and other natural resources. In this study, an attempt has been made to determine the best-fit distribution of the annual series of rainfall data for the period of 1991-2002 of 13 districts of Uttarakhand. A best-fit distribution such as Chi-squared, Chi-squared (2P), exponential, exponential (2P), gamma, gamma (3P), gen. extreme value (GEV), log-Pearson 3, Weibull, Weibull (3P) distributions was applied. Comparisons of best distributions were based on the use of goodness-of-fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi squared. Results showed that the Weibull distribution performed the best with 46% of the total district, while the second best distribution was Chi squared (2P) and log-Pearson. The results of this study would be useful to the water resource engineers, policy makers and planners for the agricultural development and conservation of natural resources of Uttarakhand.

  15. Cyclical components of local rainfall data

    Mentz, R. P.; D'Urso, M. A.; Jarma, N. M.; Mentz, G. B.


    This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by diminishing the risks associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity.The analysis starts by assuming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candidates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series.Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single geographical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper.

  16. Tropical stratospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall

    Sikder, A. B.; Patwardhan, S. K.; Bhalme, H. N.


    Interannual variability of both SW monsoon (June September) and NE monsoon (October December) rainfall over subdivisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have been examined in relation to monthly zonal wind anomaly for 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa at Balboa (9°N, 80°W) for the 29 year period (1958 1986). Correlations of zonal wind anomalies to SW monsoon rainfall ( r=0.57, significant at 1% level) is highest with the longer lead time (August of the previous year) at 10 hPa level suggesting some predictive value for Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The probabilities estimated from the contingency table reveal non-occurrence of flood during easterly wind anomalies and near non-occurrence of drought during westerly anomalies for August of the previous year at 10 hPa which provides information for forecasting of performance of SW monsoon over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. However, NE monsoon has a weak relationship with zonal wind anomalies of 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu. Tracks of the SW monsoon storms and depressions in association with the stratospheric wind were also examined to couple with the fluctuations in SW monsoon rainfall. It is noted that easterly / westerly wind at 10 hPa, in some manner, suppresses / enhances monsoon storms and depressions activity affecting their tracks.

  17. Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; deMenocal, Peter B.


    During the “Green Sahara” period (11,000 to 5000 years before the present), the Sahara desert received high amounts of rainfall, supporting diverse vegetation, permanent lakes, and human populations. Our knowledge of rainfall rates and the spatiotemporal extent of wet conditions has suffered from a lack of continuous sedimentary records. We present a quantitative reconstruction of western Saharan precipitation derived from leaf wax isotopes in marine sediments. Our data indicate that the Green Sahara extended to 31°N and likely ended abruptly. We find evidence for a prolonged “pause” in Green Sahara conditions 8000 years ago, coincident with a temporary abandonment of occupational sites by Neolithic humans. The rainfall rates inferred from our data are best explained by strong vegetation and dust feedbacks; without these mechanisms, climate models systematically fail to reproduce the Green Sahara. This study suggests that accurate simulations of future climate change in the Sahara and Sahel will require improvements in our ability to simulate vegetation and dust feedbacks. PMID:28116352

  18. Dispersion of radiocesium-contaminated bottom sediment caused by heavy rainfall in Joso City, Japan

    Inoue, Kazumasa; Arai, Moeko


    A large-scale heavy rainfall disaster occurred in Joso City, Japan, in September 2015, and one third of the city area (40 km2) was flooded by the Kinu River. Artificial radionuclides such as 134Cs and 137Cs were known to have accumulated in the river bottom sediment after their release in the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. It was thought that these radionuclides might have been dispersed by the rainfall disaster. A car-borne survey of absorbed dose rate in air had been made by the authors in Joso City in August 2015. Then, the present study made a second car-borne survey in October 2015, to evaluate changes in the rate after the rainfall disaster. The absorbed dose rate in air and the standard deviation (range) measured in the flooded areas of Joso City after the disaster were 68 ± 9 nGy h-1 (39–98 nGy h-1), which was 10% higher than the rate before it. Additionally, higher dose rates (> 60 nGy h-1) were observed for the flooded areas after the disaster; furthermore, up to 886 Bq kg-1 of activity concentration from 134Cs and 137Cs was observed in these flooded areas, and this was 11 times higher than the activity concentration before the disaster. These results suggested the dispersion of artificial radionuclides accumulated in the bottom sediment of the Kinu River after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident occurred by the heavy rainfall disaster. PMID:28234986

  19. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.


    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  20. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    A K Mitra; M Das Gupta; R K Paliwal; S V Singh


    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.

  1. Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

    Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Mendes, David; Spyrides, Maria H. C.; Pedra, George U.; Lucio, Paulo S.


    A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the filtered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The first two MCA modes, which were used to create the { MITB}_1 and { MITB}_2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting.

  2. Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

    Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara


    The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

  3. Passive microwave rainfall retrieval: A mathematical approach via sparse learning

    Ebtehaj, M.; Lerman, G.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.


    Detection and estimation of surface rainfall from spaceborne radiometric imaging is a challenging problem. The main challenges arise due to the nonlinear relationship of surface rainfall with its microwave multispectral signatures, the presence of noise, insufficient spatial resolution in observations, and the mixture of the earth surface and atmospheric radiations. A mathematical approach is presented for the detection and retrieval of surface rainfall from radiometric observations via supervised learning. In other words, we use a priori known libraries of high-resolution rainfall observations (e.g., obtained by an active radar) and their coincident spectral signatures (i.e., obtained by a radiometer) to design a mathematical model for rainfall retrieval. This model views the rainfall retrieval as a nonlinear inverse problem and relies on sparsity-promoting Bayesian inversion techniques. In this approach, we assume that small neighborhoods of the rainfall fields and their spectral signatures live on manifolds with similar local geometry and encode those neighborhoods in two joint libraries, the so-called rainfall and spectral dictionaries. We model rainfall passive microwave images by sparse linear combinations of the atoms of the spectral dictionary and then use the same representation coefficients to retrieve surface rain rates from the corresponding rainfall dictionary. The proposed methodology is examined by the use of spectral and rainfall dictionaries provided by the microwave imager (TMI) and precipitation radar (PR), aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Pros and cons of the presented approach are studied by extensive comparisons with the current operational rainfall algorithm of the TRMM satellite. Future extensions are also highlighted for potential application in the era of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Comparing the retrieved rain rates for Hurricane Danielle 08/29/2010 (UTC 09:48:00). (Top panel) PR-2A

  4. Uncertainty of Areal Rainfall Estimation Using Point Measurements

    McCarthy, D.; Dotto, C. B. S.; Sun, S.; Bertrand-Krajewski, J. L.; Deletic, A.


    The spatial variability of precipitation has a great influence on the quantity and quality of runoff water generated from hydrological processes. In practice, point rainfall measurements (e.g., rain gauges) are often used to represent areal rainfall in catchments. The spatial rainfall variability is difficult to be precisely captured even with many rain gauges. Thus the rainfall uncertainty due to spatial variability should be taken into account in order to provide reliable rainfall-driven process modelling results. This study investigates the uncertainty of areal rainfall estimation due to rainfall spatial variability if point measurements are applied. The areal rainfall is usually estimated as a weighted sum of data from available point measurements. The expected error of areal rainfall estimates is 0 if the estimation is an unbiased one. The variance of the error between the real and estimated areal rainfall is evaluated to indicate the uncertainty of areal rainfall estimates. This error variance can be expressed as a function of variograms, which was originally applied in geostatistics to characterize a spatial variable. The variogram can be evaluated using measurements from a dense rain gauge network. The areal rainfall errors are evaluated in two areas with distinct climate regimes and rainfall patterns: Greater Lyon area in France and Melbourne area in Australia. The variograms of the two areas are derived based on 6-minute rainfall time series data from 2010 to 2013 and are then used to estimate uncertainties of areal rainfall represented by different numbers of point measurements in synthetic catchments of various sizes. The error variance of areal rainfall using one point measurement in the centre of a 1-km2 catchment is 0.22 (mm/h)2 in Lyon. When the point measurement is placed at one corner of the same-size catchment, the error variance becomes 0.82 (mm/h)2 also in Lyon. Results for Melbourne were similar but presented larger uncertainty. Results

  5. Changes of Accumulated Temperature, Growing Season andPrecipitation in the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009

    宋艳玲; 赵艳霞; 王春乙


    Using the high-quality observed meteorological data,changes of the thermal conditions and precipitation over the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009 were examined.Trends of accumulated temperature and negative temperature,growing season duration,as well as seasonal and annual rainfalls at 48 stations were analyzed.The results show that the accumulated temperature increased significantly by 348.5℃ day due to global warming during 1961 2009 while the absolute accumulated negative temperature decreased apparently by 175.3℃ day.The start of growing season displayed a significant negative trend of-14.3 days during 1961-2009,but the end of growing season delayed insignificantly by 6.7 days.As a result,the length of growing sea.son increased by 21.0 days.The annual and autumn rainfalls decreased slightly while summer rainfall and summer rainy days decreased significantly.In contrast,spring rainfall increased slightly without significant trends.All the results indicate that the thermal conditions were improved to benefit the crop growth over the North China Plain during 1961-2009,and the decreasing annual and summer rainfalls had no direct negative impact on the crop growth.But the decreasing summer rainfall was likely to influence the water resources in North China,especially the underground water,reservoir water,as well as river runoff,which would have influenced the irrigation of agriculture.

  6. A Modeling Study of Surface Rainfall Processes Associated with a Torrential Rainfall Event over Hubei, China, during July 2007

    ZHOU Yushu; CUI Chunguang


    The surface rainfall processes associated with the torrential rainfall event over Hubei,China,during July 2007 were investigated using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model.The model integrated the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) for 5 days.The time and model domain mean surface rain rate was used to identify the onset,mature,and decay periods of rainfall.During the onset period,the descending motion data imposed in the lower troposphere led to a large contribution of stratiform rainfall to the model domain mean surface rainfall.The local atmospheric drying and transport of rain from convective regions mainly contributes to the stratiform rainfall.During the mature periods,the ascending motion data integrated into the model was so strong that water vapor convergence was the dominant process for both convective and stratiform rainfall.Both convective and stratiform rainfalls made important contributions to the model domain mean surface rainfall. During the decay period,descending motion data input into the model prevailed,making stratiform rainfall dominant.Stratiform rainfall was mainly caused by the water vapor convergence over raining stratiform regions.

  7. Cacti with maximum Kirchhoff index

    Wang, Wen-Rui; Pan, Xiang-Feng


    The concept of resistance distance was first proposed by Klein and Randi\\'c. The Kirchhoff index $Kf(G)$ of a graph $G$ is the sum of resistance distance between all pairs of vertices in $G$. A connected graph $G$ is called a cactus if each block of $G$ is either an edge or a cycle. Let $Cat(n;t)$ be the set of connected cacti possessing $n$ vertices and $t$ cycles, where $0\\leq t \\leq \\lfloor\\frac{n-1}{2}\\rfloor$. In this paper, the maximum kirchhoff index of cacti are characterized, as well...

  8. Generic maximum likely scale selection

    Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Loog, Marco; Markussen, Bo


    The fundamental problem of local scale selection is addressed by means of a novel principle, which is based on maximum likelihood estimation. The principle is generally applicable to a broad variety of image models and descriptors, and provides a generic scale estimation methodology. The focus...... on second order moments of multiple measurements outputs at a fixed location. These measurements, which reflect local image structure, consist in the cases considered here of Gaussian derivatives taken at several scales and/or having different derivative orders....

  9. Methods of Rainfall Indicator for Flash Flood%山洪临界雨量确定方法述评

    李昌志; 郭良


    简要介绍了国内外山洪临界雨量确定的典型方法,如欧美地区FFG法,日本线性相关法,我国台湾地区的降雨驱动指标法,以及大陆地区的实测雨量统计法、水位/流量反推法、暴雨临界曲线法和比拟法等;探索了分布式方法确定临界雨量的方法,重点探讨了以降雨强度、时段雨量、有效累积雨量为指标的山洪临界雨量确定方法;分析了分布式水文法确定临界雨量的优缺点,提出了山洪临界雨量确定方法的建议。%This paper initiated with a review of commonly used methods for estimating rainfal indicator in flash flood forecasting, such as the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) Method in the United States and Europe, the Linear Relation Method in Japan, and the methods of the Rainfal Driven Factor , the Measured Rainfal Statistics, the Stage/Discharge Inversion, the Rainfal Critical Line, as wel as Analogue in China. A detailed description of a distributed hydrologic method was fol owed for the purpose of finding a fundamental, universal and practical outputs to support flash flood managements in China, with an emphasis on analysis on rain intensity, rainfal within specific duration, effective accumulated rainfal , and rain triggering index. Final y, the merits and demerits of the distributed hydrologic method were discussed, and some suggestions were provided for flash flood critical rainfal computation in China.

  10. Rainfall-triggered lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico: Surface hydro-repellency as initiation process

    Capra, L.; Borselli, L.; Varley, N.; Gavilanes-Ruiz, J. C.; Norini, G.; Sarocchi, D.; Caballero, L.; Cortes, A.


    Volcán de Colima is currently the most active volcano in Mexico. Since 1998 intermittent activity has been observed with vulcanian eruptions, lava flows and growing domes that have collapsed producing several block-and-ash flow deposits. During the period of heightened activity since 1998 at Volcán de Colima, pyroclastic flows from dome or column collapse have not reached long distances, most of the time less than 6 km from the crater. In contrast, rain-induced lahars were more frequent and have reached relatively long distances, up to 15 km, causing damage to infrastructure and affecting small villages. In 2007 two rain gauge stations were installed on the southern flank of the volcano registering events from June through to October, the period when rains are intense and lahars frequent. By comparing lahar frequency with rainfall intensity and the rainfall accumulated during the previous 3 days, lahars more frequently occur at the beginning of the rainfall season, with low rain accumulation (debris flows, with alternations between these two flow types. A hydro-repellency mechanism in highly vegetated areas (i.e. evergreen tree types with considerable amount of resins and waxes such as pines) with sandy soils can probably explain the high frequency of lahars at the beginning of the rain season during low rainfall events. Under hydrophobic conditions, infiltration is inhibited and runoff is facilitated at more highly peaked discharges that are more likely to initiate lahars.

  11. Prediction of Experimental Rainfall-Eroded Soil Area Based on S-Shaped Growth Curve Model Framework

    Wen Nie


    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced soil erosion of a mountain area plays a significant role in supplying sediment and shaping the landscape. The related area of soil erosion, as an index of the changed landscape, is easier to calculate visually using some popular imaging tools. By image analysis, our work shows that the changing of the soil erosion area admits the structure of an S-growth curve. Therefore, we propose to establish an S-curve model, based on incremental learning, to predict the soil erosion area. In the process of incremental learning, we dynamically update the accumulative rainfall and rainfall intensity to train the parameters of our S-curve model. In order to verify our prediction model, the index of area is utilized to express the output of eroded soil in a series of experiments. The results show that the proposed S-growth curve model can be used to estimate the growth of the soil erosion area (average relative error 3%–9.7% according to variable soil material and rainfall intensity. The original S-growth curve model can calculate the erosion areas of just one soil material and one rainfall condition whose average relative error is 7.5%–12.2%; compared to the simple time series analysis-moving average method (average relative error 5.7%–12.1%, our proposed S-growth curve model can reveal the physical mechanism and evolution of the research object.

  12. Accumulation by Conservation

    Büscher, Bram; Fletcher, Robert


    Following the financial crisis and its aftermath, it is clear that the inherent contradictions of capitalist accumulation have become even more intense and plunged the global economy into unprecedented turmoil and urgency. Governments, business leaders and other elite agents are frantically searchin

  13. Simulation of radar rainfall errors and their propagation into rainfall-runoff processes

    Aghakouchak, A.; Habib, E.


    Radar rainfall data compared with rain gauge measurements provide higher spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar data obtained form reflectivity patterns are subject to various errors such as errors in Z-R relationship, vertical profile of reflectivity, spatial and temporal sampling, etc. Characterization of such uncertainties in radar data and their effects on hydrologic simulations (e.g., streamflow estimation) is a challenging issue. This study aims to analyze radar rainfall error characteristics empirically to gain information on prosperities of random error representativeness and its temporal and spatial dependency. To empirically analyze error characteristics, high resolution and accurate rain gauge measurements are required. The Goodwin Creek watershed located in the north part of Mississippi is selected for this study due to availability of a dense rain gauge network. A total of 30 rain gauge measurement stations within Goodwin Creak watershed and the NWS Level II radar reflectivity data obtained from the WSR-88dD Memphis radar station with temporal resolution of 5min and spatial resolution of 1 km2 are used in this study. Radar data and rain gauge measurements comparisons are used to estimate overall bias, and statistical characteristics and spatio-temporal dependency of radar rainfall error fields. This information is then used to simulate realizations of radar error patterns with multiple correlated variables using Monte Calro method and the Cholesky decomposition. The generated error fields are then imposed on radar rainfall fields to obtain statistical realizations of input rainfall fields. Each simulated realization is then fed as input to a distributed physically based hydrological model resulting in an ensemble of predicted runoff hydrographs. The study analyzes the propagation of radar errors on the simulation of different rainfall-runoff processes such as streamflow, soil moisture, infiltration, and over-land flooding.

  14. Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

    Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen


    The CO-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) has to date seen the publication of at least ten journal papers that examine the African domain during 2012 and 2013. Five of these papers consider Africa generally (Nikulin et al. 2012, Kim et al. 2013, Hernandes-Dias et al. 2013, Laprise et al. 2013, Panitz et al. 2013) and five have regional foci: Tramblay et al. (2013) on Northern Africa, Mariotti et al. (2014) and Gbobaniyi el al. (2013) on West Africa, Endris et al. (2013) on East Africa and Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) on southern Africa. There also are a further three papers that the authors know about under review. These papers all use an observed rainfall and/or temperature data to evaluate/validate the regional model output and often proceed to assess projected changes in these variables due to climate change in the context of these observations. The most popular reference rainfall data used are the CRU, GPCP, GPCC, TRMM and UDEL datasets. However, as Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) point out there are many other rainfall datasets available for consideration, for example, CMORPH, FEWS, TAMSAT & RIANNAA, TAMORA and the WATCH & WATCH-DEI data. They, with others (Nikulin et al. 2012, Sylla et al. 2012) show that the observed datasets can have a very wide spread at a particular space-time coordinate. As more ground, space and reanalysis-based rainfall products become available, all which use different methods to produce precipitation data, the selection of reference data is becoming an important factor in model evaluation. A number of factors can contribute to a uncertainty in terms of the reliability and validity of the datasets such as radiance conversion algorithims, the quantity and quality of available station data, interpolation techniques and blending methods used to combine satellite and guage based products. However, to date no comprehensive study has been performed to evaluate the uncertainty in these observational datasets. We assess 18 gridded

  15. Economics and Maximum Entropy Production

    Lorenz, R. D.


    Price differentials, sales volume and profit can be seen as analogues of temperature difference, heat flow and work or entropy production in the climate system. One aspect in which economic systems exhibit more clarity than the climate is that the empirical and/or statistical mechanical tendency for systems to seek a maximum in production is very evident in economics, in that the profit motive is very clear. Noting the common link between 1/f noise, power laws and Self-Organized Criticality with Maximum Entropy Production, the power law fluctuations in security and commodity prices is not inconsistent with the analogy. There is an additional thermodynamic analogy, in that scarcity is valued. A commodity concentrated among a few traders is valued highly by the many who do not have it. The market therefore encourages via prices the spreading of those goods among a wider group, just as heat tends to diffuse, increasing entropy. I explore some empirical price-volume relationships of metals and meteorites in this context.

  16. Ensemble flood forecasting to support dam water release operation using 10 and 2 km-resolution JMA Nonhydrostatic Model ensemble rainfalls

    K. Kobayashi


    Full Text Available This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model are used as the input data to a rainfall–runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolution. A distributed rainfall–runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2 and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km-resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km-resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s−1; a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km-resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while, at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km-resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls show much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  17. Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy

    Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto


    The large physiographic variability and the abundance of landslide and rainfall data make Italy an ideal site to investigate variations in the rainfall conditions that can result in rainfall-induced landslides. We used landslide information obtained from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 2228 rain gauges to build a catalogue of 2309 rainfall events with - mostly shallow - landslides in Italy between January 1996 and February 2014. For each rainfall event with landslides, we reconstructed the rainfall history that presumably caused the slope failure, and we determined the corresponding rainfall duration D (in hours) and cumulated event rainfall E (in mm). Adopting a power law threshold model, we determined cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, at 5% exceedance probability, and their uncertainty. We defined a new national threshold for Italy, and 26 regional thresholds for environmental subdivisions based on topography, lithology, land-use, land cover, climate, and meteorology, and we used the thresholds to study the variations of the rainfall conditions that can result in landslides in different environments, in Italy. We found that the national and the environmental thresholds cover a small part of the possible DE domain. The finding supports the use of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting in Italy, but poses an empirical limitation to the possibility of defining thresholds for small geographical areas. We observed differences between some of the thresholds. With increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), the thresholds become higher and steeper, indicating that more rainfall is needed to trigger landslides where the MAP is high than where it is low. This suggests that the landscape adjusts to the regional meteorological conditions. We also observed that the thresholds are higher for stronger rocks, and that forested areas require more rainfall than agricultural areas to initiate landslides. Finally, we

  18. Time and Space Variability of Rainfall in Central-East Argentina.

    Krepper, Carlos M.; Scian, Beatriz V.; Pierini, Jorge O.


    Climatic variability of monthly rainfall data over a period of 30 yr is analyzed. Twenty-three precipitation locations of the central pampa region of Argentina were used. They are spread over the transition zone between wet and dry pampa. The variance contribution for three frequency bands were emphasized using spectral analysis. They include interannual, annual and intraannual variability. Temporal variability for high frequency (that of periods up to 5 months) accounts for 60% of the total variance. Space variability for monthly, three-month, seasonal, and annual periods are analyzed by empirical orthogonal functions. An axis of maximum mean monthly rainfall variability is found oriented from Sierra de la Ventana towards the NE. Spectral contributions for the monthly temporal coefficients of the first two eigenvalues show main peaks with 12-, 6- and 7-month periods.

  19. Numerical simulation of laboratory experiments in detention pond routing with long rainfall duration


    This paper establishes a numerical detention pond volume model based on the hydrological continuity equation and the Runge-Kutta numerical method. Experiments for the conditions of both steady and unsteady flow have been used to verify the model. In unsteady flow cases, the outflow hydrograph by numerical simulation are fairly consistent with experimental value. Both experimental and numerical results indicate that wider rectangular sharp-crested weirs or larger rectangular slot tend to induce greater outflow discharges, which undesirably cut down the detention volume. Experiments show that the necessary detention volume of rectangular slot is smaller than that of the rectangular sharp-crested weir for a constant flood peak reduction. That is, the rectangular slot is the recommended outflow device when flood peak reduction is the design criteria. The study also shows that necessary detention volume of the short rainfall duration is less than that of the long rainfall duration under constant allowable maximum discharge.

  20. Uncertainty assessment in the prediction of extreme rainfall events: an example from the central Spanish Pyrenees

    García-Ruiz, J. M.; Arnáez, J.; White, S. M.; Lorente, A.; Beguería, S.


    Extreme rainfall events occur frequently in the central Pyrenees, but they are responsible for mass movements and short, very intense erosion periods, accompanied at times by loss of human life and high costs of infrastructure. This paper tries to assess the existence of patterns in the spatial distribution of maximum precipitation. The calculation of return periods of the most intense rainfall demonstrates that in the Pyrenees it exhibits an erratic spatial and temporal distribution and can be extremely localized. In the case of precipitation between 150 and 200 mm in 24 h, some influence from the surrounding relief has been found, but this is not the case for precipitation exceeding 200 mm, characterized by the absence of patterns governing their spatial distribution. Geomorphological approaches are, therefore, the only way for assessing the areas more subject to hydromorphological risks.

  1. On the sensitivity of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager channels to overland rainfall

    You, Yalei; Liu, Guosheng; Wang, Yu; Cao, Jie


    The response of brightness temperatures at different microwave frequencies to overland precipitation is investigated by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) and Microwave Imager (TMI) data. The Spearman correlation coefficients between observations at TMI channels or channel combinations and PR-measured near-surface rain are computed using 3 years of TRMM data. The results showed that the brightness temperature combinations from 19 and 37 GHz, that is, V19-V37 (the letter V denotes vertical polarization, and the numbers denote frequency in GHz) or V21-V37, can explain ˜10% more variance of near-surface rainfall rate than can the V85 brightness temperature. Also, the global distribution of the above correlation revealed that over almost all of the tropical land area covered by TRMM satellite, the V19-V37 channel has a closer response to the overland rainfall than does the V85 channel. This result is somewhat counterintuitive, because it has been long believed that the dominant signature of overland rainfall is the brightness temperature depression caused by ice scattering at high microwave frequencies (e.g., 85 GHz). To understand the underlying physics of this better low-frequency response, data analysis and radiative transfer modeling have been conducted to assess the influence on brightness temperatures from clouds with different ice and liquid water partitions. The results showed that under the condition of low frozen water and medium liquid water in the atmospheric column, the signal from the V19-V37 channel responded better to rainfall rate than did the one from the V85 channel. A plausible explanation to this result is that in addition to ice scattering signature, the V19-V37 channel contains liquid water information as well, which is more directly related to surface rain than to ice water aloft. At heavy rainfall conditions, the V19-V37, V37, and V85 channels all are correlated with near-surface rain reasonably well

  2. Leaching of indaziflam applied at two rates under different rainfall situations in Florida Candler soil.

    Jhala, Amit J; Ramirez, Analiza H M; Singh, Megh


    Indaziflam {N-[(1R, 2S)-2,3-dihydro-2,6-dimethyl-1H-inden-1-yl]-6-[(1RS)-1fluoroethyl]-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine} is a new pre-emergence herbicide recently registered for a broad spectrum weed control in Florida citrus. Experiments were conducted to evaluate leaching of indaziflam applied at 73 and 145 g ai ha(-1) in Florida Candler soil under simulated rainfall of 5, 10, and 15 cm ha(-1). Indaziflam leached the least (12.6 ± 0.6 cm) when applied at 73 g ai ha(-1) under 5 cm ha(-1) rainfall. Indaziflam leached furthest (30.2 ± 0.9 cm) when applied at 145 g ai ha(-1) under 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall. The visual control ratings of a bio-indicator species ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) was 97% at 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall when indaziflam applied at 145 g ai ha(-1) in the 26 to 30 cm horizon indicating the maximum movement and activity of indaziflam. A dose response experiment was conducted to determine the sensitivity of ryegrass to various doses of indaziflam that confirmed that application of indaziflam at 29.20 g ai ha(-1) was sufficient to prevent germination of ryegrass. There was no mortality of ryegrass plants beyond the 30 cm and the biomass of ryegrass was comparable with untreated control indicating that indaziflam did not leach beyond this distance even under 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall.

  3. Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Nino Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model

    Kitoh, A.; Endo, H.


    El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will still be the most dominant year-to-year variations of the future tropical climate system. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is used to project future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Nino at the end of the 21st century. Four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) changes are used as future boundary conditions based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. Rainfall extremes such as the maximum 5-day precipitation total (Rx5d) over the western Pacific are positively correlated to the Nino3.4 SST anomalies. It is found that Rx5d regressed to the Nino3.4 SST will increase two times in the future compared to the present value. This implies drastic increase of risk of heavy-rainfall induced disasters under by global warming over the western Pacific countries.

  4. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

    S. J. Wood


    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  5. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.


    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  6. Variations of characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over northern Thailand

    Klongvessa, P.; Lu, M.; Chotpantarat, S.


    The Chao Phraya basin, Thailand, is frequently inundated by flooding during the southwest monsoon period. Most floods coincide with consecutive rainfall days. This study investigated consecutive rainfall days during the southwest monsoon period at 11 stations over northern Thailand, the upstream area of this basin. The Markov chain probability model was used to study the consecutiveness of days with at least 0.1, 10.1, and 35.1 mm of rainfall. The consecutive length of rainfall days from the model showed good agreement with the observed value. A chi-square test of independence was applied to assess the significance of the consecutiveness, and it was found that days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall tend to be consecutive over the entire area. Moreover, days with at least 35.1 mm of rainfall were found to be consecutive over the joint area where the mountainous region meets the plain area. However, the consecutiveness of days with less than 10.1 mm of rainfall was not obvious. The rainfall amount on days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall was also calculated and it showed lower values over the mountainous region than over the plain. Hence, this study established the characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over the plain, mountainous region, and joint area.


    Numan Shehadeh


    Full Text Available Climatic models that project the impact of climate change upon rainfall in the Eastern Mediterranean region predict that the negative impact will be more pronounced upon winter rainfall rather than Fall or Spring rainfall where instability conditions become more pronounced. Those models, also, predict that, due to the great geographical diversity, projected rainfall trends in the above region will show great spatial variability. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the possible impact of climate change upon winter rainfall (December, January and February in Jordan. Data from six meteorological stations that represent well the spatial variation of rainfall in the country is used. Various statistical techniques are applied in this study including, linear regression, t- test, moving averages and CUSUM charts. Results of the analysis reveal a decreasing rainfall trend in all the sample stations. However, the decreasing trends are significant at the 0.05 level in three stations only (Salt, Amman and Irbid. The negative impact of climate change upon winter rainfall totals in the northern and central parts of Jordan, where most of winter rainfall is associated with Mediterranean depressions, is statistically significant at the 0.05 level. However, such impact is not significant in the southern and eastern parts of the country, where a greater portion of winter rainfall is associated with khamasini depressions and instability conditions. Further research analyzing the impact of climate change upon other climatic elements such as temperature, relative humidity and dust storms is needed.

  8. Waxing and Waning of Observed Extreme Annual Tropical Rainfall

    Sukhatme, Jai


    We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the recent decade (1998-present) as compared to the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise of a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (as compared to 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To further probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation, a similar comparison is performed between 1960-1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exa...

  9. Sources of Uncertainty in Rainfall Maps from Cellular Communication Networks

    Rios Gaona, Manuel Felipe; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Accurate measurements of rainfall are important in many hydrological applications, for instance, flash-flood early-warning systems, hydraulic structures design, agriculture, weather forecasting, and climate modelling. Rainfall intensities can be retrieved from (commercial) microwave link networks. Whenever possible, link networks measure and store the decrease in power of the electromagnetic signal at regular intervals. The decrease in power is largely due to the attenuation by raindrops along the link paths. Such an alternative technique fulfills the continuous strive for measurements of rainfall in time and space at higher resolutions, especially in places where traditional rain gauge networks are scarce or poorly maintained. Rainfall maps from microwave link networks have recently been introduced at country-wide scales. Despite their potential in rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolutions, the uncertainties present in rainfall maps from link networks are not yet fully comprehended. The aim of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of uncertainty present in interpolated rainfall maps from link rainfall depths. In order to disentangle these sources of uncertainty, we classified them into two categories: (1) those associated with the individual microwave link measurements, i.e., the physics involved in the measurements such as wet antenna attenuation, sampling interval of measurements, wet/dry period classification, drop size distribution (DSD), and multi-path propagation; (2) those associated with mapping, i.e., the combined effect of the interpolation methodology, the spatial density of the network, and the availability of link measurements. We computed ~ 3500 rainfall maps from real and simulated link rainfall depths for 12 days for the land surface of The Netherlands. These rainfall maps were compared against quality-controlled gauge-adjusted radar rainfall fields (assumed to be the ground truth). Thus, we were able to not only identify

  10. Analysis of the variation of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events

    Zeimetz, Fränz; Garcìa, Javier; Schaefli, Bettina; Schleiss, Anton J.


    In numerous countries of the world (USA, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland,…), the dam safety verifications for extreme floods are realized by referring to the so called Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this PMF is determined based on the PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation). The PMF estimation is performed with a hydrological simulation model by routing the PMP. The PMP-PMF simulation is normally event based; therefore, if no further information is known, the simulation needs assumptions concerning the initial soil conditions such as saturation or snow cover. In addition, temperature series are also of interest for the PMP-PMF simulations. Temperature values can not only be deduced from temperature measurement but also using the temperature gradient method, the 0°C isothermal altitude can lead to temperature estimations on the ground. For practitioners, the usage of the isothermal altitude for referring to temperature is convenient and simpler because one value can give information over a large region under the assumption of a certain temperature gradient. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events is aimed here and based on meteorological soundings from the two sounding stations Payerne (CH) and Milan (I). Furthermore, hourly rainfall and temperature data are available from 110 pluviometers spread over the Swiss territory. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude is undertaken for different precipitation durations based on the meteorological measurements mentioned above. The results show that on average, the isothermal altitude tends to decrease during the rainfall events and that a correlation between the duration of the altitude loss and the duration of the rainfall exists. A significant difference in altitude loss is appearing when the soundings from Payerne and Milan are compared.

  11. Hic Sunt Leones: Anomalous Scaling In Rainfall

    Ferraris, L.; Gabellani, S.; Provenzale, A.; Rebora, N.

    In recent years the spatio-temporal intermittency of precipitation fields has often been quantified in terms of scaling and/or multifractal behaviour. In this work we anal- yse the spatial scaling properties of precipitation intensity fields measured during the GATE radar experiment, and compare the results with those obtained from surrogate data generated by nonlinearly filtered, linear stochastic processes and from random shuffling of the original data. The results of the study suggest a spurious nature of the spatial multifractal behaviour of the GATE fields and indicate that claims of multifrac- tality and anomalous scaling in rainfall may have to be reconsidered.

  12. Rainfall as proxy for evapotranspiration predictions

    Collischonn, Bruno; Collischonn, Walter


    In this work, we evaluated the relationship between evapotranspiration and precipitation, based on the data recently made available by the Brazilian Meteorological Institute. ETP tend to be lower in rainy periods and vice-versa. This relationship was assessed both in physical and statistical ways, identifying the contribution of each explaining variable of ETP. We derived regression equations between monthly rainfall and ETP, which can be useful in studies where ETP time series are not available, such as reservoir design, irrigation management and flow forecast.

  13. Properties of Extreme Point Rainfall I

    Harremoës, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    Extreme rainfall has been recorded by the larger municipalities in Denmark since 1933. National intensity-duration-frequency curves were produced on this basis for engineering application in the whole of Denmark. In 1979, on the initiative of The Danish Water Pollution Control Committee under...... The Society of Danish Engineers, the old municipal rain gauges for measuring extreme rain were exchanged with a modern system of gauges tabbed electronically from a central computer at The Danish Meteorological Institute. The data have revealed a geographical variability that calls for revision...

  14. Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

    Willems, Patrick


    Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

  15. Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.


    Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

  16. Coping with rainfall variability in northern Tanzania

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte


    This chapter explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...... of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets...

  17. Uncertainty Analysis in the Evaluation of Extreme Rainfall Trends and Its Implications on Urban Drainage System Design

    Vincenza Notaro


    Full Text Available Future projections provided by climate models suggest that the occurrence of extreme rainfall events will increase and this is evidence that the climate is changing. Because the design of urban drainage systems is based on the statistical analysis of past events, variations in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall represent a critical issue for the estimation of rainfall. For this reason, the design criteria of drainage systems should take into account the trends in the past and the future climate changes projections. To this end, a Bayesian procedure was proposed to update the parameters of depth–duration–frequency (DDF curves to assess the uncertainty related to the estimation of these values, once the evidence of annual maximum rainfall trends was verified. Namely, in the present study, the historical extreme rainfall series with durations of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h for the period of 1950–2008, recorded by the rain gauges located near the Paceco urban area (southern Italy, were analyzed to detect statistically significant trends using the non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test. Based on the rainfall trends, the parameters of the DDF curves for a five‐year return period were updated to define some climate scenarios. Finally, the implications of the uncertainty related to the DDF parameters estimation on the design of a real urban drainage system was assessed to provide an evaluation of its performance under the assumption of climate change. Results showed that the future increase of annual maximum precipitation in the area of study would affect the analyzed drainage system, which could face more frequent episodes of surcharge.

  18. Objects of maximum electromagnetic chirality

    Fernandez-Corbaton, Ivan


    We introduce a definition of the electromagnetic chirality of an object and show that it has an upper bound. The upper bound is attained if and only if the object is transparent for fields of one handedness (helicity). Additionally, electromagnetic duality symmetry, i.e. helicity preservation upon scattering, turns out to be a necessary condition for reciprocal scatterers to attain the upper bound. We use these results to provide requirements for the design of such extremal scatterers. The requirements can be formulated as constraints on the polarizability tensors for dipolar scatterers or as material constitutive relations. We also outline two applications for objects of maximum electromagnetic chirality: A twofold resonantly enhanced and background free circular dichroism measurement setup, and angle independent helicity filtering glasses.

  19. Maximum mutual information regularized classification

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan


    In this paper, a novel pattern classification approach is proposed by regularizing the classifier learning to maximize mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. We argue that, with the learned classifier, the uncertainty of the true class label of a data sample should be reduced by knowing its classification response as much as possible. The reduced uncertainty is measured by the mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. To this end, when learning a linear classifier, we propose to maximize the mutual information between classification responses and true class labels of training samples, besides minimizing the classification error and reducing the classifier complexity. An objective function is constructed by modeling mutual information with entropy estimation, and it is optimized by a gradient descend method in an iterative algorithm. Experiments on two real world pattern classification problems show the significant improvements achieved by maximum mutual information regularization.

  20. The strong maximum principle revisited

    Pucci, Patrizia; Serrin, James

    In this paper we first present the classical maximum principle due to E. Hopf, together with an extended commentary and discussion of Hopf's paper. We emphasize the comparison technique invented by Hopf to prove this principle, which has since become a main mathematical tool for the study of second order elliptic partial differential equations and has generated an enormous number of important applications. While Hopf's principle is generally understood to apply to linear equations, it is in fact also crucial in nonlinear theories, such as those under consideration here. In particular, we shall treat and discuss recent generalizations of the strong maximum principle, and also the compact support principle, for the case of singular quasilinear elliptic differential inequalities, under generally weak assumptions on the quasilinear operators and the nonlinearities involved. Our principal interest is in necessary and sufficient conditions for the validity of both principles; in exposing and simplifying earlier proofs of corresponding results; and in extending the conclusions to wider classes of singular operators than previously considered. The results have unexpected ramifications for other problems, as will develop from the exposition, e.g. two point boundary value problems for singular quasilinear ordinary differential equations (Sections 3 and 4); the exterior Dirichlet boundary value problem (Section 5); the existence of dead cores and compact support solutions, i.e. dead cores at infinity (Section 7); Euler-Lagrange inequalities on a Riemannian manifold (Section 9); comparison and uniqueness theorems for solutions of singular quasilinear differential inequalities (Section 10). The case of p-regular elliptic inequalities is briefly considered in Section 11.

  1. Country-wide rainfall maps from cellular communication networks

    Leijnse, Hidde; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall monitoring using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. Here we show how one cellular telecommunication network can be used to retrieve the space-time dynamics of rainfall for an entire country. A dataset from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (2400) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 km2). This dataset consists of 24 days with substantial rainfall in June - September 2011. A rainfall retrieval algorithm is presented to derive rainfall intensities from the microwave link data, which have a temporal resolution of 15 min. Rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are generated from these rainfall intensities using Kriging. This algorithm is suited for real-time application, and is calibrated on a subset (12 days) of the dataset. The other 12 days in the dataset are used to validate the algorithm. Both

  2. Ensemble simulations of the urban effect on a summer rainfall event in the Great Beijing Metropolitan Area

    Zhong, Shi; Yang, Xiu-Qun


    The Great Beijing Metropolitan Area (GBMA), located in North China, is one of the most rapidly developing regions in the world. In this study, ensemble simulations are conducted to investigate the urban effects on a summertime heavy rainfall event in the GBMA. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that couples with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is used for the ensemble simulation. Results show that the ensemble simulation with a realistic land-use representation of urban areas (i.e. control run) can well reproduce the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the rainfall event. The simulated total precipitation agrees well with observation. Compared with the sensitivity ensemble simulation, in which the urban area is replaced by cropland, the control run generates more precipitation over the southwest of Beijing, while less rainfall is found in the area to the northeast of Beijing. This result suggests that the underlying urban surface and urban canopy physics in the surface layer have remarkable impacts on precipitation. The stronger upward motion along with larger convergence and more moisture transportation caused by the urban dynamic and thermodynamic effects directly contribute to the differences in rainfall distribution between the control run and the sensitivity run. In addition, the urban effects are found to slow the cold front movement due to the intense warm air over the urban area, leading to a delayed occurrence of the peak rainfall. However, the slow-moving cold front over the urban area enhances the maximum precipitation intensity. The evolution of the rainfall pattern during the intensification period of the precipitation event is dependent on the movement of the cold front in both the control and sensitivity experiments, indicating that urban effects tend to modify the precipitation distribution and influence the temporal variation of the rainfall process.

  3. Experimental measurement and modeling of snow accumulation and snowmelt in a mountain microcatchment

    Danko, Michal; Krajčí, Pavel; Hlavčo, Jozef; Kostka, Zdeněk; Holko, Ladislav


    Fieldwork is a very useful source of data in all geosciences. This naturally applies also to the snow hydrology. Snow accumulation and snowmelt are spatially very heterogeneous especially in non-forested, mountain environments. Direct field measurements provide the most accurate information about it. Quantification and understanding of processes, that cause these spatial differences are crucial in prediction and modelling of runoff volumes in spring snowmelt period. This study presents possibilities of detailed measurement and modeling of snow cover characteristics in a mountain experimental microcatchment located in northern part of Slovakia in Western Tatra mountains. Catchment area is 0.059 km2 and mean altitude is 1500 m a.s.l. Measurement network consists of 27 snow poles, 3 small snow lysimeters, discharge measurement device and standard automatic weather station. Snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) were measured twice a month near the snow poles. These measurements were used to estimate spatial differences in accumulation of SWE. Snowmelt outflow was measured by small snow lysimeters. Measurements were performed in winter 2014/2015. Snow water equivalent variability was very high in such a small area. Differences between particular measuring points reached 600 mm in time of maximum SWE. The results indicated good performance of a snow lysimeter in case of snowmelt timing identification. Increase of snowmelt measured by the snow lysimeter had the same timing as increase in discharge at catchment's outlet and the same timing as the increase in air temperature above the freezing point. Measured data were afterwards used in distributed rainfall-runoff model MIKE-SHE. Several methods were used for spatial distribution of precipitation and snow water equivalent. The model was able to simulate snow water equivalent and snowmelt timing in daily step reasonably well. Simulated discharges were slightly overestimated in later spring.

  4. Copula-based IDF curves and empirical rainfall thresholds for flash floods and rainfall-induced landslides

    Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca; Mikoš, Matjaž


    Floods, landslides and debris flows are natural events that occur all over the world and are often induced by extreme rainfall conditions. Several extreme events occurred in Slovenia (Europe) in the last 25 years that caused 18 casualties and approximately 500 million Euros of economic loss. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship was constructed using the Frank copula function for several rainfall stations using high-resolution rainfall data with an average subsample length of 34 years. The empirical rainfall threshold curves were also evaluated for selected extreme events. Post-event analyses showed that rainfall characteristics triggering flash floods and landslides are different. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the inter-event time definition (IETD) and subsample definition methodology can have a significant influence on the position of rainfall events in the intensity-duration space, the constructed IDF curves and on the relationship between the empirical rainfall threshold curves and the IDF curves constructed using the copula approach. Furthermore, a combination of several empirical rainfall thresholds with an appropriate high-density rainfall measurement network can be used as part of the early warning system of the initiation of landslides and debris flows. However, different rainfall threshold curves should be used for lowland and mountainous areas in Slovenia.

  5. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T


    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable.

  6. Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

    Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jody L.; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.


    Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

  7. Estimation of rainfall using remote sensing for Riyadh climate, KSA

    AlHassoun, Saleh A.


    Rainfall data constitute an important parameter for studying water resources-related problems. Remote sensing techniques could provide rapid and comprehensive overview of the rainfall distribution in a given area. Thus, the infrared data from the LandSat satellite in conjunction with the Scofield-oliver method were used to monitor and model rainfall in Riyadh area as a resemble of any area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia(KSA). Four convective clouds that covered two rain gage stations were analyzed. Good estimation of rainfall was obtained from satellite images. The results showed that the satellite rainfall estimations were well correlated to rain gage measurements. The satellite climate data appear to be useful for monitoring and modeling rainfall at any area where no rain gage is available.

  8. Antiproton Accumulator (AA)

    Photographic Service


    The AA in its final stage of construction, before it disappeared from view under concrete shielding. Antiprotons were first injected, stochastically cooled and accumulated in July 1980. From 1981 on, the AA provided antiprotons for collisions with protons, first in the ISR, then in the SPS Collider. From 1983 on, it also sent antiprotons, via the PS, to the Low-Energy Antiproton Ring (LEAR). The AA was dismantled in 1997 and shipped to Japan.

  9. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino


    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  10. Research of optical rainfall sensor based on CCD linear array

    YANG; Bifeng; LIU; Yuyan; LU; Ying; WU; Shangqian


    Rainfall monitoring is one of the most important meteorological observation elements for the disaster weather. The maintenance of current tipping bucket rain gauge and weighing type rain gauge is a critical issue. The optical rainfall sensor based on CCD linear array is mainly studied in this paper. Because of the maintenance-free time and good adaptability,it can be widely used in the automatic rainfall monitoring in severe environment and have a good perspective in using.

  11. Development of Rainfall Model using Meteorological Data for Hydrological Use

    Mohd Adib Mohammad Razi


    Full Text Available Abstract At present, research on forecasting unpredictable weather such as heavy rainfall is one of the most important challenges for equipped meteorological center. In addition, the incidence of significant weather events is estimated to rise in the near future due to climate change, and this situation inspires more studies to be done. This study introduces a rainfall model that has been developed using selected rainfall parameters with the aim to recognize rainfall depth in a catchment area. This study proposes a rainfall model that utilizes the amount of rainfall, temperature, humidity and pressure records taken from selected stations in Peninsular Malaysia and they are analyzed using SPSS multiple regression model. Seven meteorological stations are selected for data collection from 1997 until 2007 in Peninsular Malaysia which are Senai, Kuantan, Melaka, Subang, Ipoh, Bayan Lepas, and Chuping. Multiple Regression analysis in Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS software has been used to analyze a set of eleven years (1997 – 2007 meteorological data. Senai rainfall model gives an accurate result compared to observation rainfall data and this model were validating with data from Kota Tinggi station. The analysis shows that the selected meteorological parameters influence the rainfall development. As a result, the rainfall model developed for Senai proves that it can be used in Kota Tinggi catchment area within the limit boundaries, as the two stations are close from one another. Then, the amounts of rainfall at the Senai and Kota Tinggi stations are compared and the calibration analysis shows that the proposed rainfall model can be used in both areas.

  12. Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

    Chiu, Long S.


    The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

  13. Effects of rainfall acidification on plant pathogens

    Shriner, D. S.; Cowling, E. B.


    Wind-blown rain, rain splash, and films of free moisture play important roles in the epidemiology of many plant diseases. The chemical nature of the aqueous microenvironment at the infection court is a potentially significant factor in the successful dissemination, establishment, and survival of plant pathogenic microorganisms. Acidic rainfall has a potential for influencing not only the pathogen, but also the host organism, and the host-pathogen complex. Although host-pathogen interactions add a degree of complexity to the study of abiotic environmental stress of plants, it is our hope, through the use of a combination of general concepts, theoretical postulations, and experimental data, to describe the potential role that rainfall acidity may play in the often subtle balance between populations of plants and populations of plant pathogens. The direct effects of acidic precipitation on vegetation are becoming increasingly better understood. The indirect consequences of both acute and chronic exposure of vegetation to acidic precipitation are very complex, however. Their effect is variable in time, and involves a variety of potential interactions which are only partially understood.

  14. Analysis of rainfall intensities using very dense network measurements and radar information for the Brno area during the period 2003-2009

    Salek, Milan; Stepanek, Petr; Zahradnicek, Pavel [Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno (Czech Republic)


    This study presents a data quality control and spatial analysis of maximum precipitation sums of various durations for the area of the city of Brno, using a dense network of automatic gauge stations and radar information. The measurements of 18 stations in the area of Brno, Czech Republic were established for the purposes of better management of the city sewerage system. Before evaluation of the measurements, quality control was executed on the daily, hourly and 15-minute precipitation sums. All suspicious data were compared with radar measurements and erroneous input data were removed. From this quality controlled data, the maxima of precipitation sums for durations of 5, 10, 15 and 60 minutes were calculated for the given time frames (months, seasons and years) and were spatially analyzed. The role of spatial precipitation estimates using weather radar data for hourly rainfall accumulations has been investigated as well. It is revealed that radar measurements show rather little improvement of the areal precipitation estimates when such a dense gauge network is available in real time, but it would be hard to replace radar measurements by any other source of data for successful quality control of the rain-gauge data, especially in summer months. (orig.)

  15. Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications

    Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Funk, Christopher C.


    Evaluating a range of scenarios that accurately reflect precipitation variability is critical for water resource applications. Inputs to these applications can be provided using location- and interval-specific probability distributions. These distributions make it possible to estimate the likelihood of rainfall being within a specified range. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of fitting cell-by-cell probability distributions to grids of monthly interpolated, continent-wide data. Future work will then detail applications of these grids to improved satellite-remote sensing of drought and interpretations of probabilistic climate outlook forum forecasts. The gamma distribution is well suited to these applications because it is fairly familiar to African scientists, and capable of representing a variety of distribution shapes. This study tests the goodness-of-fit using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, and compares these results against another distribution commonly used in rainfall events, the Weibull. The gamma distribution is suitable for roughly 98% of the locations over all months. The techniques and results presented in this study provide a foundation for use of the gamma distribution to generate drivers for various rain-related models. These models are used as decision support tools for the management of water and agricultural resources as well as food reserves by providing decision makers with ways to evaluate the likelihood of various rainfall accumulations and assess different scenarios in Africa. 

  16. Representative rainfall thresholds for flash floods in the Cali river watershed, Colombia

    A. D. Ávila


    Full Text Available In the 21st century, societies face a significant increase in the number of extreme hydrometeorological events associated with climate variability (CV and/or climate change (CC. Research has recently focused on establishing adaptation and mitigation measures to counteract the effects of CV and CC, especially those associated with precipitation, such as flash floods and flooding. In this study, 27 floods, listed in the historical database of natural disasters (DesInventar, occurring between 1980 and 2012, were analyzed. Using the daily hydrometeorological data, representative rainfall thresholds were defined to predict flash floods in the hydrographic basin of the Cali River, Colombia. Antecedent rainfall (AR, or short-term rain (1, 3, 5 and 7 days, and accumulated antecedent rainfall (AAR, or long-term rain (5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60 and 90 days, levels were defined. The analysis showed that the greatest determinant for the occurrence of floods is AAR, with thresholds greater than 73, 95, 124, 170, 218 and 273 mm, for 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 days, respectively. Additionally, the data showed that, historically, the greatest number of flash floods (81.7 % occurred in the Cali River basin in the months of April, May, and June.

  17. Impacts of Two-Type ENSO on Rainfall over Taiwan

    Chen-Chih Lin; Yi-Jiun Liou; Shih-Jen Huang


    Impacts of two-type ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki, on rainfall over Taiwan are investigated by the monthly mean rainfall data accessed from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The periods of the two-type ENSO are distinguished by Niño 3.4 index and ENSO Modoki index (EMI). The rainfall data in variously geographical regions are analyzed with the values of Niño 3.4 and EMI by correlation method. Results show that the seasonal rainfalls over Taiwan are different...

  18. Impacts of Two-Type ENSO on Rainfall over Taiwan

    Chen-Chih Lin; Yi-Jiun Liou; Shih-Jen Huang


    Impacts of two-type ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki, on rainfall over Taiwan are investigated by the monthly mean rainfall data accessed from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The periods of the two-type ENSO are distinguished by Niño 3.4 index and ENSO Modoki index (EMI). The rainfall data in variously geographical regions are analyzed with the values of Niño 3.4 and EMI by correlation method. Results show that the seasonal rainfalls over Taiwan are different...

  19. Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka

    Galappaththy Gawrie NL


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rainfall data have potential use for malaria prediction. However, the relationship bet