Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Nitrate Accumulation and Leaching in Surface and Ground Water Based on Simulated Rainfall Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hong; Gao, Jian-en; Li, Xing-hua; Zhang, Shao-long; Wang, Hong-jie

2015-01-01

To evaluate the process of nitrate accumulation and leaching in surface and ground water, we conducted simulated rainfall experiments. The experiments were performed in areas of 5.3 m2 with bare slopes of 3° that were treated with two nitrogen fertilizer inputs, high (22.5 g/m2 NH4NO3) and control (no fertilizer), and subjected to 2 hours of rainfall, with. From the 1st to the 7th experiments, the same content of fertilizer mixed with soil was uniformly applied to the soil surface at 10 minutes before rainfall, and no fertilizer was applied for the 8th through 12th experiments. Initially, the time-series nitrate concentration in the surface flow quickly increased, and then it rapidly decreased and gradually stabilized at a low level during the fertilizer experiments. The nitrogen loss in the surface flow primarily occurred during the first 18.6 minutes of rainfall. For the continuous fertilizer experiments, the mean nitrate concentrations in the groundwater flow remained at less than 10 mg/L before the 5th experiment, and after the 7th experiment, these nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 mg/L throughout the process. The time-series process of the changing concentration in the groundwater flow exhibited the same parabolic trend for each fertilizer experiment. However, the time at which the nitrate concentration began to change lagged behind the start time of groundwater flow by approximately 0.94 hours on average. The experiments were also performed with no fertilizer. In these experiments, the mean nitrate concentration of groundwater initially increased continuously, and then, the process exhibited the same parabolic trend as the results of the fertilization experiments. The nitrate concentration decreased in the subsequent experiments. Eight days after the 12 rainfall experiments, 50.53% of the total nitrate applied remained in the experimental soil. Nitrate residues mainly existed at the surface and in the bottom soil layers, which represents a

Nickel accumulation by Hybanthus floribundus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Severne, B C

1974-04-26

Several ecotypes of Hybanthus floribundus are found across the southern part of Australia. However, the three nickel accumulating ecotypes are restricted to a broad belt in Western Australia. Nickel concentrations in this shrub were observed to decrease southwards (from 8000 to 1000 p.p.m.) as the annual rainfall increased from 7 inches to more than 30 inches. Studies have shown that nickel concentrations increase from the roots through the rootstock, into the stems and reach maximum towards the leaf tips. High nickel concentrations are also seen in seed capsules (1500 p.p.m.), seeds (2000 p.p.m.) and flowers. The maximum nickel concentration recorded is 1.6% (26% nickel in ash) in mature leaf tissue. 16 references, 2 tables.

What rainfall events trigger landslides on the West Coast US?

Science.gov (United States)

Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia

2016-04-01

A dataset of landslide occurrences compiled by collating google news reports covers 9 full years of data. We show that, while this compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it is adequate to capture the distribution of events in the major urban areas of the West Coast US and it can be used to provide a quantitative relationship between landslides and rainfall events. The case of the Seattle metropolitan area is presented as an example. The landslide dataset shows a clear seasonality in landslide occurrence, corresponding to the seasonality of rainfall, modified by the accumulation of soil moisture as winter progresses. Interannual variability of landslide occurrences is also linked to interannual variability of monthly rainfall. In most instances, landslides are clustered on consecutive days or at least within the same pentad and correspond to days of large rainfall accumulation at the regional scale. A joint analysis of the landslide data and of the high-resolution PRISM daily rainfall accumulation shows that on days when landslides occurred, the distribution of rainfall was shifted, with rainfall accumulation higher than 10mm/day being more common. Accumulations above 50mm/day much increase the probability of landslides, including the possibility of a major landslide event (one with multiple landslides in a day). The synoptic meteorological conditions associated with these major events show a mid-tropospheric ridge to the south of the target area steering a surface low and bringing enhanced precipitable water towards the Pacific North West. The interaction of the low-level flow with the local orography results in instances of a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone, with widespread rainfall accumulation above 30mm/day and localized maxima as high as 100mm/day or more.

Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.

2016-11-01

Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

2014-05-01

Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration

Science.gov (United States)

Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej

2017-11-01

Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

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Álvaro José Back

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min and the return period T (y in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

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Álvaro José Back

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

Extreme Rainfall In A City

Science.gov (United States)

Nkemdirim, Lawrence

Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

ANALYSIS OF THE STATISTICAL BEHAVIOUR OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL ALONG WITH RAINY DAYS VARIATION IN SYLHET, BANGLADESH

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G. M. J. HASAN

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

Determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayorga Marquez, Ruth

2003-01-01

Considering that rainfall is the natural event that more often triggers landslides, it is important to study the relationship between this phenomenon and the occurrence of earth mass movements, by determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in different zones of Colombia. The research presents a methodology that allows proposing rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia, by means of a relationship between the accumulated rain in the soil (antecedent rainfall) and the rain that falls the day of the landslide occurrence (event rainfall)

Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

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Natalie Melissa McLean

2015-01-01

Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

Spillway design implications resulting from changes in rainfall extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muzik, I.

1999-01-01

A study was conducted in order to determine how serious implications regarding spillway design of small dams would result from changes in flood frequencies and magnitudes, because of changes in rainfall regime in turn brought on by climate change due to carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere. The region selected for study was the central Alberta foothills and adjacent prairie environment. A study watershed, representative of the region, was chosen to assess the present and possible future flood frequency-magnitude relationships. A Monte Carlo simulation method was used in conjunction with rainfall-runoff modelling of the study watershed to generate data for flood frequency analysis of maximum annual flood series corresponding to the present and future climate scenarios. The impact of resulting differences in design floods for small dams on spillway design was investigated using the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration small dam design method. Changes in the mean and standard deviation of rainfall depth of design storms in a region will result in new probability distributions of the maximum annual flood flows. A 25% increase in the mean and standard deviation of design rainfall depth resulted in greater increases of 1:2 and 1:100 flood flows than a 50% increase in the standard deviation alone did. Under scenario 1, the 1:2 flood flows increased more than did the 1:100 flows. Scenario 2 produced opposite results, whereby the 1:100 flows increased more than did the 1:2 flows. It seems that a climate change of the type of scenario 1 would result in a more severe increase in flood flows than scenario 2 would. Retrofitting existing spillways of small dams would in most cases require increasing flow capacities of both operating and auxilliary spillways. 23 refs

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Transfer function modeling of the monthly accumulated rainfall series over the Iberian Peninsula

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mateos, Vidal L.; Garcia, Jose A.; Serrano, Antonio; De la Cruz Gallego, Maria [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz (Spain)

2002-10-01

In order to improve the results given by Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA) modeling for the monthly accumulated rainfall series taken at 19 observatories of the Iberian Peninsula, a Discrete Linear Transfer Function Noise (DLTFN) model was applied taking the local pressure series (LP), North Atlantic sea level pressure series (SLP) and North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as input variables, and the rainfall series as the output series. In all cases, the performance of the DLTFN models, measured by the explained variance of the rainfall series, is better than the performance given by the ARMA modeling. The best performance is given by the models that take the local pressure as the input variable, followed by the sea level pressure models and the sea surface temperature models. Geographically speaking, the models fitted to those observatories located in the west of the Iberian Peninsula work better than those on the north and east of the Peninsula. Also, it was found that there is a region located between 0 N and 20 N, which shows the highest cross-correlation between SST and the peninsula rainfalls. This region moves to the west and northwest off the Peninsula when the SLP series are used. [Spanish] Con el objeto de mejorar los resultados porporcionados por los modelos Autorregresivo Media Movil (ARMA) ajustados a las precipitaciones mensuales acumuladas registradas en 19 observatorios de la Peninsula Iberica se han usado modelos de funcion de transferencia (DLTFN) en los que se han empleado como variable independiente la presion local (LP), la presion a nivel del mar (SLP) o la temperatura de agua del mar (SST) en el Atlantico Norte. En todos los casos analizados, los resultados obtenidos con los modelos DLTFN, medidos mediante la varianza explicada por el modelo, han sido mejores que los resultados proporcionados por los modelos ARMA. Los mejores resultados han sido dados por aquellos modelos que usan la presion local como variable de entrada, seguidos

Relationships between High Impact Tropical Rainfall Events and Environmental Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

2017-12-01

While rainfall increases as moisture and vertical motion increase, relationships between regional environmental conditions and rainfall event characteristics remain more uncertain. Of particular importance are long duration, heavy rain rate, and significant accumulation events that contribute sizable fractions of overall precipitation over short time periods. This study seeks to establish relationships between observed rainfall event properties and environmental conditions. Event duration, rain rate, and rainfall accumulation are derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly, 0.25° resolution rainfall retrieval from 2002-2013 between 10°N and 10°S. Events are accumulated into 2.5° grid boxes and matched to monthly mean total column water vapor (TCWV) and 500-hPa vertical motion (omega) in each 2.5° grid box, retrieved from ERA-interim reanalysis. Only months with greater than 3 mm/day rainfall are included to ensure sufficient sampling. 90th and 99th percentile oceanic events last more than 20% longer and have rain rates more than 20% lower than those over land for a given TCWV-omega condition. Event duration and accumulation are more sensitive to omega than TCWV over oceans, but more sensitive to TCWV than omega over land, suggesting system size, propagation speed, and/or forcing mechanism differences for land and ocean regions. Sensitivities of duration, rain rate, and accumulation to TCWV and omega increase with increasing event extremity. For 3B42 and ERA-Interim relationships, the 90th percentile oceanic event accumulation increases by 0.93 mm for every 1 Pa/min change in rising motion, but this increases to 3.7 mm for every 1 Pa/min for the 99th percentile. Over land, the 90th percentile event accumulation increases by 0.55 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV, whereas the 99th percentile increases by 0.90 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV. These changes in event accumulation are highly correlated with changes in event

Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

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Tingting Shi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

Research on the Relationship between Landslide of Farming Terraces and the Intensity of Rainfall and Slope Angle Based on the Indoor Rainfall Slide Slope Model

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Dongqin Chen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Due to the increase of geographical disaster in China, it is necessary to study the formation mechanism to make a preparation for the future prevention of geological disasters and effectively reduce the unnecessary financial loss and casualties. We found there is a powerful connection between heavy rainfall and landslide slope. Thus, this article takes the accumulation of gravel soil as the research material to set up indoor rainfall and landslide model test. By comparing the rules of pore water pressure and soil pressure responding to different rainfall intensity and slope angle, we discussed over the effects of rainfall intensity and slope angle on the sliding of accumulation gravelly soil.

Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

2015-12-01

Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

2013-04-01

Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

A binary genetic programing model for teleconnection identification between global sea surface temperature and local maximum monthly rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Nourani, Vahid; Hrnjica, Bahrudin; Molajou, Amir

2017-12-01

The effectiveness of genetic programming (GP) for solving regression problems in hydrology has been recognized in recent studies. However, its capability to solve classification problems has not been sufficiently explored so far. This study develops and applies a novel classification-forecasting model, namely Binary GP (BGP), for teleconnection studies between sea surface temperature (SST) variations and maximum monthly rainfall (MMR) events. The BGP integrates certain types of data pre-processing and post-processing methods with conventional GP engine to enhance its ability to solve both regression and classification problems simultaneously. The model was trained and tested using SST series of Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea as potential predictors as well as classified MMR events at two locations in Iran as predictand. Skill of the model was measured in regard to different rainfall thresholds and SST lags and compared to that of the hybrid decision tree-association rule (DTAR) model available in the literature. The results indicated that the proposed model can identify potential teleconnection signals of surrounding seas beneficial to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the classified MMR events.

Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

2012-01-01

textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

2013-01-01

textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai

2017-04-01

Most of the landslide cases in Taiwan were triggered by rainfall or earthquake events. The heavy rainfall in the typhoon seasons, from June to October, causes the landslide hazard more serious. Renai Towhship is of the most large landslide cases after 2009 Typhoon Morakot (from Aug. 5 to Aug. 10, 2009) in Taiwan. Around 2,744 landslides cases with the total landslide area of 21.5 km2 (landslide ratio =1.8%), including 26 large landslide cases, induced after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Towhship. The area of each large landslides case is more than 0.1 km2, and the area of the largest case is around 0.96 km2. 58% of large landslide cases locate in the area with metamorphosed sandstone. The mean slope of 26 large landslide cases ranges from 15 degree to 56 degree, and the accumulated rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot ranges from 530 mm to 937 mm. Three methods, including frequency ratio method (abbreviated as FR), weights of evidence method (abbreviated as WOE), and logistic regression method (abbreviated as LR), are used in this study to establish the landslides susceptibility in the Renai Township, Nantou County, Taiwan. Eight landslide related-factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, land use, distance to drainage, distance to fault, accumulation rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot, are used to establish the landslide susceptibility models in this study. The landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot is also used to test the model performance in this study. The mean accumulated rainfall in Renai Township during 2009 typhoon Morakot was around 735 mm with the maximum 1-hr, 3-hrs, and 6-hrs rainfall intensity of 44 mm/1-hr, 106 mm/3-hrs and 204 mm/6-hrs, respectively. The range of original susceptibility values established by three methods are 4.0 to 20.9 for FR, -33.8 to -16.1 for WOE, and -41.7 to 5.7 for LR, and the mean landslide susceptibility value are 8.0, -24.6 and 0.38, respectively. The AUC values are 0.815 for FR, 0.816 for WOE, and 0

Research on the Characteristics and Mechanism of the Cumulative Release of Antimony from an Antimony Smelting Slag Stacking Area under Rainfall Leaching

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yingying; Deng, Renjian

2017-01-01

We aimed to study the characteristics and the mechanism of the cumulative release of antimony at an antimony smelting slag stacking area in southern China. A series of dynamic and static leaching experiments to simulate the effects of rainfall were carried out. The results showed that the release of antimony from smelting slag increased with a decrease in the solid-liquid ratio, and the maximum accumulated release was found to be 42.13 mg Sb/kg waste and 34.26 mg Sb/kg waste with a solid/liquid ratio of 1 : 20; the maximum amount of antimony was released within 149–420 μm size fraction with 7.09 mg/L of the cumulative leaching. Also, the antimony release was the greatest and most rapid at pH 7.0 with the minimum release found at pH 4.0. With an increase in rainfall duration, the antimony release increased. The influence of variation in rainfall intensity on the release of antimony from smelting slag was small. PMID:28804669

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

Science.gov (United States)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set

Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

Error threshold inference from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data and interpolated ground-based rainfall measurements in Metro Manila

Science.gov (United States)

Ampil, L. J. Y.; Yao, J. G.; Lagrosas, N.; Lorenzo, G. R. H.; Simpas, J.

2017-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is a group of satellites that provides global observations of precipitation. Satellite-based observations act as an alternative if ground-based measurements are inadequate or unavailable. Data provided by satellites however must be validated for this data to be reliable and used effectively. In this study, the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final Run v3 half-hourly product is validated by comparing against interpolated ground measurements derived from sixteen ground stations in Metro Manila. The area considered in this study is the region 14.4° - 14.8° latitude and 120.9° - 121.2° longitude, subdivided into twelve 0.1° x 0.1° grid squares. Satellite data from June 1 - August 31, 2014 with the data aggregated to 1-day temporal resolution are used in this study. The satellite data is directly compared to measurements from individual ground stations to determine the effect of the interpolation by contrast against the comparison of satellite data and interpolated measurements. The comparisons are calculated by taking a fractional root-mean-square error (F-RMSE) between two datasets. The results show that interpolation improves errors compared to using raw station data except during days with very small amounts of rainfall. F-RMSE reaches extreme values of up to 654 without a rainfall threshold. A rainfall threshold is inferred to remove extreme error values and make the distribution of F-RMSE more consistent. Results show that the rainfall threshold varies slightly per month. The threshold for June is inferred to be 0.5 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 9.78, while the threshold for July and August is inferred to be 0.1 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 4.8 and 10.7, respectively. The maximum F-RMSE is reduced further as the threshold is increased. Maximum F-RMSE is reduced to 3.06 when a rainfall threshold of 10 mm is applied over the entire duration of JJA. These results indicate that

Regionalization of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Stochastic Rainfall Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongkyun Kim

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Parameters of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP stochastic rainfall simulation model were regionalized across the contiguous United States. Three thousand four hundred forty-four National Climate Data Center (NCDC rain gauges were used to obtain spatial and seasonal patterns of the model parameters. The MBLRP model was calibrated to minimize the discrepancy between the precipitation depth statistics between the observed and MBLRP-generated precipitation time series. These statistics included the mean, variance, probability of zero rainfall and autocorrelation at 1-, 3-, 12- and 24-hour accumulation intervals. The Ordinary Kriging interpolation technique was used to generate maps of the six MBLRP model parameters for each of the 12 months of the year. All parameters had clear to discernible regional tendencies; except for one related to rain cell duration distribution. Parameter seasonality was not obvious and it was more apparent in some locations than in others, depending on the seasonality of the rainfall statistics. Cross-validation was used to assess the validity of the parameter maps. The results indicate that the suggested maps reproduce well the observed rainfall statistics for different accumulation intervals, except for the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. The boundaries of the expected residual, with 95% confidence, between the observed rainfall statistics and the simulated rainfall statistics based on the map parameters were approximately ±0.064 mm hr-1, ±1.63 mm2 hr-2, ±0.16, and ±0.030 for the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of zero rainfall at hourly accumulation levels, respectively. The estimated parameter values were also used to estimate the storm and rain cell characteristics.

Extreme value analysis of rainfall data for Kalpakkam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, Pramod Kumar; John Arul, A.; Ramkrishnan, M.; Bhuvana, V.

2016-01-01

Flood hazard evaluation is an important safety study for a Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study flood hazard at PFBR site due to rainfall is evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment is daily annual maximum rainfall (24 hrs data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law, and exponential distribution and return period has been estimated. The predicted 100 yrs return period rainfall for Kalpakkam ranges from 240 mm to 365 mm in a day and 1000 yrs return period rainfall ranges from 320 mm to 790 min in a day. To study the stationarity of rainfall data a moving window estimate of the parameters (exponential distribution) have also been performed. (author)

Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overflow performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szeląg Bartosz

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overfl ow performance. This research study analyzes the effect of the rainfall characteristics (total and maximum 10-, 15- and 30-minute rainfall depth, its duration, the dry weather period on the performance of the emergency overflow weir located at the inflow to an existing treatment plant. The analyses used the numerical calculation results of the inflow hydrographs performed in the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model program on the basis of six-year-long rainfall measurement sequence. The obtained simulation results for the analysed catchment allowed for the performance of statistical analyses, which demonstrated that the volume of stormwater discharge, the maximum instantaneous flow and the share of stormwater volume discharged through the emergency overflow weir in relation to the total volume of the inflow hydrograph from the catchment are affected by the maximum 30-minute rainfall depth, whereas the discharge duration is affected by the depth of the catchment rainfall layer. Taking into account the results of statistical and hydraulic calculations it can be concluded that in the case of the analysed catchment the performance of the emergency overflow weir is affected to the greatest extent by the rainfall intensity distribution.

Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

Science.gov (United States)

Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

2017-04-01

In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

frequency analysis of rainfall for flood control in patani, delta state

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

The Niger Delta Region of Nigeria is within the mangrove forest region and is crisscrossed by ... especially in Forcados, some oil wells have been lost to ... rainfall depths and the assessment of the rarity of .... hydrological data shows that peak rainfall occurs around .... magnitude and as output the observed maximum rainfall.

Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delson Chikobvu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

Polarimetric rainfall retrieval from a C-Band weather radar in a tropical environment (The Philippines)

Science.gov (United States)

Crisologo, I.; Vulpiani, G.; Abon, C. C.; David, C. P. C.; Bronstert, A.; Heistermann, Maik

2014-11-01

We evaluated the potential of polarimetric rainfall retrieval methods for the Tagaytay C-Band weather radar in the Philippines. For this purpose, we combined a method for fuzzy echo classification, an approach to extract and reconstruct the differential propagation phase, Φ DP , and a polarimetric self-consistency approach to calibrate horizontal and differential reflectivity. The reconstructed Φ DP was used to estimate path-integrated attenuation and to retrieve the specific differential phase, K DP . All related algorithms were transparently implemented in the Open Source radar processing software wradlib. Rainfall was then estimated from different variables: from re-calibrated reflectivity, from re-calibrated reflectivity that has been corrected for path-integrated attenuation, from the specific differential phase, and from a combination of reflectivity and specific differential phase. As an additional benchmark, rainfall was estimated by interpolating the rainfall observed by rain gauges. We evaluated the rainfall products for daily and hourly accumulations. For this purpose, we used observations of 16 rain gauges from a five-month period in the 2012 wet season. It turned out that the retrieval of rainfall from K DP substantially improved the rainfall estimation at both daily and hourly time scales. The measurement of reflectivity apparently was impaired by severe miscalibration while K DP was immune to such effects. Daily accumulations of rainfall retrieved from K DP showed a very low estimation bias and small random errors. Random scatter was, though, strongly present in hourly accumulations.

PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

1994-01-01

rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

Determined of Rainfall Erosivity Indices (EI30, Lal, Hudson and Onchev) for Namak Lake Basin

OpenAIRE

Z.T. Alipour; M.H. Mahdian; S. Hakimkhani; M. Saeedi

2011-01-01

In this research the indices EI30, AIm,‎ KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ were determined for 16 pluviograph as well as for 3 Namak Lake Basin nearby stations. Regression relationships were established between the dependent variables of EI30, AIm, KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ Indices and other easily accessible rainfall indices of: fournier, modified fournier, maximum monthly rainfall, maximum daily rainfall, standard deviation of monthly and annual rainfall as well as pluviometer site elevations. This made ...

Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.

2009-12-01

Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi-mum

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. G. Koutroulis

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min than the non-flood events (25 min, that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

Impact of the Rainfall Duration and Temporal Rainfall Distribution Defined Using the Huff Curves on the Hydraulic Flood Modelling Results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nejc Bezak

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In the case of ungauged catchments, different procedures can be used to derive the design hydrograph and design peak discharge, which are crucial input data for the design of different hydrotechnical engineering structures, or the production of flood hazard maps. One of the possible approaches involves using a hydrological model where one can calculate the design hydrograph through the design of a rainfall event. This study investigates the impact of the design rainfall on the combined one-dimensional/two-dimensional (1D/2D hydraulic modelling results. The Glinščica Stream catchment located in Slovenia (central Europe is used as a case study. Ten different design rainfall events were compared for 10 and 100-year return periods, where we used Huff curves for the design rainfall event definition. The results indicate that the selection of the design rainfall event should be regarded as an important step, since the hydraulic modelling results for different scenarios differ significantly. In the presented experimental case study, the maximum flooded area extent was twice as large as the minimum one, and the maximum water velocity over flooded areas was more than 10 times larger than the minimum one. This can lead to the production of very different flood hazard maps, and consequently planning very different flood protection schemes.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

Science.gov (United States)

Day, Jesse A.; Fung, Inez; Liu, Weihan

2018-03-01

The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call “frontal rain events.” In spring and early summer (known as “Meiyu Season”), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951–2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the “South Flood–North Drought” pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994–2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.

Rainfall thresholds as support for timing fungicide applications in the control of potato late blight in Ecuador and Peru

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kromann, Peter; Taipe, Arturo; Perez, Willmer G.

2009-01-01

Accumulated rainfall thresholds were studied in seven field experiments conducted in Ecuador and Peru for their value in timing applications of fungicide to control potato late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans. Fungicide regimes based on accumulated rainfall thresholds ranging from 10 to 70...

Statistical analysis of yearly series of maximum daily rainfall in Spain. Analisis estadistico de las series anuales de maximas lluvias diarias en Espaa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferrer Polo, J.; Ardiles Lopez, K. L. (CEDEX, Ministerio de Obras Publicas, Transportes y Medio ambiente, Madrid (Spain))

1994-01-01

Work on the statistical modelling of maximum daily rainfalls is presented, with a view to estimating the quantiles for different return periods. An index flood approach has been adopted in which the local quantiles are a result of rescaling a regional law using the mean of each series of values, that is utilized as a local scale factor. The annual maximum series have been taken from 1.545 meteorological stations over a 30 year period, and these have been classified into 26 regions defined according to meteorological criteria, the homogeneity of wich has been checked by means of a statistical analysis of the coefficients of variation of the samples,using the. An estimation has been made of the parameters for the following four distribution models: Two Component Extreme Value (TCEV); General Extreme Value (GEV); Log-Pearson III (LP3); and SQRT-Exponential Type Distribution of Maximum. The analysis of the quantiles obtained reveals slight differences in the results thus detracting from the importance of the model selection. The last of the above-mentioned distribution has been finally chosen, on the basis of the following: it is defined with fewer parameters it is the only that was proposed specifically for the analysis of daily rainfall maximums; it yields more conservative results than the traditional Gumbel distribution for the high return periods; and it is capable of providing a good description of the main sampling statistics concerning the right-hand tail of the distribution, a fact that has been checked with Montecarlo's simulation techniques. The choice of a distribution model with only two parameters has led to the selection of the regional coefficient of variation as the only determining parameter for the regional quantiles. This has permitted the elimination of the quantiles discontinuity of the classical regional approach, thus smoothing the values of that coefficient by means of an isoline plan on a national scale.

Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

Science.gov (United States)

Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-04-01

Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold F.; Negri, Andrew

2002-01-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan

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J. C. Chen

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N was also investigated via image analysis and/or field investigation. The relationship between N and RI was analysed. Higher RI of a rainfall event would trigger a larger number of debris flows. This paper also discusses the effects of the Chi-Chi earthquake (CCE on this relationship and on debris flow initiation. The results showed that the critical RI for debris flow initiation had significant variations and was significantly lower in the years immediately following the CCE of 1999, but appeared to revert to the pre-earthquake condition about five years later. Under the same extreme rainfall event of RI = 365 cm2 h−1, the value of N in the CCE-affected period could be six times larger than that in the non-CCE-affected periods.

Assessment on spatiotemporal relationship between rainfall and cloud top temperature from new generation weather satellite imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Chiang; Yeh, Hui-Chung; Chen, Yen-Chang

2017-04-01

This study addressed the relationship between rainfall and cloud top temperature (CCT) from new generation satellite Himawari-8 imagery at different spatiotemporal scale. This satellite provides higher band, more bits for data format, spatial and temporal resolution compared with previous GMS series. The multi-infrared channels with 10-minute and 1-2 km resolution make it possible for rainfall estimating/forecasting in small/medium watershed. The preliminary result investigated at Chenyulan watershed (443.6 square kilometer) of Central Taiwan in 2016 Typhoon Megi shows the regression coefficient fitted by negative exponential equation of largest rainfall vs. CCT (B8 band) at pixel scale increases as time scales enlarges and reach 0.462 for 120-minute accumulative rainfall; the value (CTT of B15 band) decreases from 0.635 for 10-minute to 0.423 for 120-minute accumulative rainfall at basin-wide scale. More rainfall events for different regime are yet to evaluate to get solid results.

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

2017-04-01

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

2015-04-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

Comparison and Evolution of Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Taiwan

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Chunhung WU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of, and locations prone to, extreme rainfall-induced landslides in three watersheds in Taiwan, as well as the long-term evolution of landslides in the Laonong River watershed (LRW, based on multiannual landslide inventories during 2003–2014. Extreme rainfall-induced landslides were centralized beside sinuous or meandering reaches, especially those with large sediment deposition. Landslide-prone strata during extreme rainfall events were sandstone and siltstone. Large-scale landslides were likely to occur when the maximum 6-h accumulated rainfall exceeded 420 mm. All of the large-scale landslides induced by short-duration and high-intensity rainfall developed from historical small-scale landslides beside the sinuous or meandering reaches or in the source area of rivers. However, most of the large-scale landslides induced by long-duration and high-intensity rainfall were new but were still located beside sinuous or meandering reaches or near the source. The frequency density of landslides under long-duration and high-intensity rainfall was larger by one order than those under short-duration rainfall, and the β values in the landslide frequency density-area analysis ranged from 1.22 to 1.348. The number of downslope landslides was three times larger than those of midslope and upslope landslides. The extreme rainfall-induced landslides occurred in the erosion gullies upstream of the watersheds, whereas those beside rivers were downstream. Analysis of the long-term evolution of landslides in the LRW showed that the geological setting, sinuousness of reaches, and sediment yield volume determined their location and evolution. Small-scale landslides constituted 71.9–96.2% of the total cases from 2003 to 2014, and were more easily induced after Typhoon Morakot (2009. The frequency density of landslides after Morakot was greater by one order than before, with 61% to 68% of total landslides located in the

Determined of Rainfall Erosivity Indices (EI30, Lal, Hudson and Onchev for Namak Lake Basin

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Z.T. Alipour

2011-06-01

Full Text Available In this research the indices EI30, AIm,‎ KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ were determined for 16 pluviograph as well as for 3 Namak Lake Basin nearby stations. Regression relationships were established between the dependent variables of EI30, AIm, KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ Indices and other easily accessible rainfall indices of: fournier, modified fournier, maximum monthly rainfall, maximum daily rainfall, standard deviation of monthly and annual rainfall as well as pluviometer site elevations. This made the establishment of appropriate relationships between rainfall intensity dependent indices and the dependent variable of rainfall intensity (at stations where intensity was non-existent possible. In the next step, the indices as well as easily accessible rainfall data from pluviograph stations were exploited to find out EI30 ,AIm ,‎ KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ indices, while using the previously obtained regression relationships.

Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Iris M.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Frigon, Anne; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick

2016-06-01

Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

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Jonas W. Pedersen

2016-09-01

Full Text Available High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior standard deviations and lengths of the auto-calibration period on the resulting flow forecast performance are evaluated. We were able to demonstrate that, if properly tuned, the method leads to a significant increase in forecasting performance compared to a model without continuous auto-calibration. Delayed responses and erratic behaviour in the parameter variations are, however, observed and the choice of prior distributions and length of auto-calibration period is not straightforward.

Exploring the potential of multivariate depth-damage and rainfall-damage models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Ootegem, Luc; van Herck, K.; Creten, T.

2018-01-01

In Europe, floods are among the natural catastrophes that cause the largest economic damage. This article explores the potential of two distinct types of multivariate flood damage models: ‘depth-damage’ models and ‘rainfall-damage’ models. We use survey data of 346 Flemish households that were...... victim of pluvial floods complemented with rainfall data from both rain gauges and weather radars. In the econometrical analysis, a Tobit estimation technique is used to deal with the issue of zero damage observations. The results show that in the ‘depth-damage’ models flood depth has a significant...... impact on the damage. In the ‘rainfall-damage’ models there is a significant impact of rainfall accumulation on the damage when using the gauge rainfall data as predictor, but not when using the radar rainfall data. Finally, non-hazard indicators are found to be important for explaining pluvial flood...

Monsoon effect simulation on typhoon rainfall potential - Typhoon Morakot (2009

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Yi-Ling Chang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A record breaking extreme precipitation event produced 3000 mm day-1 of accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The interactions between Typhoon Morakot and the prevailing southwesterly (SW monsoon are the primary mechanism for this heavy precipitation during 5 - 13 August 2009. This extreme precipitation could be produced by the abundant moisture from the SW monsoon associated with the interaction between typhoon and monsoon wind fields, leading to severe property damage. The accurate mapping of extreme precipitation caused from the interaction between a monsoon and typhoon is critical for early warning in Taiwan. This study simulates the heavy rainfall event is based on the Weather Research and Forecast system model (WRF using the three nested domain configuration. Using data assimilation with a virtual meteorological field using the 3D-Var system, such as wind field to alter the SW monsoon strength in the initial condition, the impacts of intensified convergence and water vapor content on the accumulated rainfall are analyzed to quantize the intensification of typhoon rainfall potential. The results showed a positive correlation between the enhanced precipitation and the intensity of low-level wind speed convergence as well as water vapor content. For the Typhoon Morakot case study the rainfall for could attain approximately 2 × 104 mm at 6 hours interval in the southern Taiwan area when 10 × 10-6 s-1 convergence intensified at 850 hPa level around the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. These results suggest that low-level wind speed, convergence and water vapor content play key roles in the typhoon rainfall potential coupled with the SW monsoon.

Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

Science.gov (United States)

Zafar, Sumaira

2016-07-01

Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

Calculation on maximum accumulation of Pu-239 and Pu-241 from aqueous homogeneous reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ikhlas H Siregar; Frida Agung R; Suharyana; Azizul Khakim; Dahman Siregar

2016-01-01

Calculations on maximum accumulation of Pu-239 and Pu-241 using MCNPX computer code with UO_2(NO_3)_2 fuel solution enriched by 19.75% operating at temperature 80°C have been conducted. AHR design was simulated with cylindrical core having diameter of 63.4 cm and 122 cm high. From this geometry we found the reactor was critical with density 108 gr U/L of UO_2(NO_3)_2 solution. The result showed that multiplication factor (k_e_f_f) of AHR was 1.05284. Then the burn up calculations were done for various time intervals from 5 days until 285 years to analyze the result. From calculation, it was found out that the saturated concentration of Pu-239 was reached after 40-50 years of operation, producing 1.23 x 102 gr and the activity 7.645 Ci. While for operate time of AHR to produce Pu-241 should under 80 years with mass 21.7 gr and the activity 2.247 x 103 Ci. The accumulations of both isotopes are considered to be small, having low potential for misusing them for producing nuclear weapon. (author)

Maximum magnitude in bias-dependent spin accumulation signals of CoFe/MgO/Si on insulator devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishikawa, M.; Sugiyama, H.; Inokuchi, T.; Tanamoto, T.; Saito, Y.; Hamaya, K.; Tezuka, N.

2013-01-01

We study in detail how the bias voltage (V bias ) and interface resistance (RA) depend on the magnitude of spin accumulation signals (|ΔV| or |ΔV|/I, where I is current) as detected by three-terminal Hanle measurements in CoFe/MgO/Si on insulator (SOI) devices with various MgO layer thicknesses and SOI carrier densities. We find the apparent maximum magnitude of spin polarization as a function of V bias and the correlation between the magnitude of spin accumulation signals and the shape of differential conductance (dI/dV) curves within the framework of the standard spin diffusion model. All of the experimental results can be explained by taking into account the density of states (DOS) in CoFe under the influence of the applied V bias and the quality of MgO tunnel barrier. These results indicate that it is important to consider the DOS of the ferromagnetic materials under the influence of an applied V bias and the quality of tunnel barrier when observing large spin accumulation signals in Si

An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

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C. Massari

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Mocko, David; Lee, Myong-In; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Suarez, Max J.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

2010-01-01

Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.

[Rainfall intensity effects on nutrients transport in surface runoff from farmlands in gentle slope hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Rui-ling; Zhang, Yong-chun; Liu, Zhuang; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Wei-xin; Zhang, Hong-ling

2010-05-01

To investigate the effect of rainfall on agricultural nonpoint source pollution, watershed scale experiments were conducted to study the characteristics of nutrients in surface runoff under different rainfall intensities from farmlands in gentle slope hilly areas around Taihu Lake. Rainfall intensity significantly affected N and P concentrations in runoff. Rainfall intensity was positively related to TP, PO4(3-) -P and NH4+ -N event mean concentrations(EMC). However, this study have found the EMC of TN and NO3- -N to be positively related to rainfall intensity under light rain and negatively related to rainfall intensity under heavy rain. TN and TP site mean amounts (SMA) in runoff were positively related to rainfall intensity and were 1.91, 311.83, 127.65, 731.69 g/hm2 and 0.04, 7.77, 2.99, 32.02 g/hm2 with rainfall applied under light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm respectively. N in runoff was mainly NO3- -N and NH4+ -N and was primarily in dissolved form from Meilin soils. Dissolved P (DP) was the dominant form of TP under light rain, but particulate P (PP) mass loss increased with the increase of rainfall intensity and to be the dominant form when the rainfall intensity reaches rainstorm. Single relationships were used to describe the dependence of TN and TP mass losses in runoff on rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity, average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration respectively. The results showed a significant positive correlation between TN mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01) and also TP mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01).

Erosive rainfall in the Rio do Peixe Valley: Part III - Risk of extreme events

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Álvaro J. Back

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Understanding the risks of extreme events related to soil erosion is important for adequate dimensioning of erosion and runoff control structures. The objective of this study was to determine the rainfall erosivity with different return periods for the Valley of the Rio do Peixe in Santa Catarina state, Brazil. Daily pluviographic data series from 1984 to 2014 from the Campos Novos, and Videira meteorological stations and from 1986 to 2014 from the Caçador station were used. The data series of maximum annual rainfall intensity in 30 min, maximum annual erosive rainfall, and total annual erosivity were analyzed for each station. The Gumbel-Chow distributions were adjusted and their adhesions were evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a significance level of 5%. The Gumbel-Chow distribution was adequate for the estimation of all studied variables. The mean annual erosivity corresponds to the return period of 2.25 years. The data series of the annual maximum individual rainfall erosivity coefficients varied from 47 to 50%.

[Output characteristics of rainfall runoff phosphorus pollution from a typical small watershed in Yimeng mountainous area].

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Zhen-wei; Liu, Qian-jin; Jing, Guang-hua

2012-08-01

Relationships between phosphorus pollutant concentrations and precipitation-runoff were analyzed by monitoring pollutant losses at outlets of the Menglianggu watershed in 2010. A typical small watershed was selected to examine the runoff and quality parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), particle phosphorus (PP), dissolve phosphorus (DP) and dissolve inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in rainfall-runoff of 10 rainfall events. Precipitation was above 2 mm for all the 10 rainfall events. The results showed that the peak of phosphorus concentrations occurred before the peak of water flows, whereas change processes of the phosphorus fluxes were consistent with that of the water flows and the phosphorus flux also have a strong linear relationship with the water flows. The minimums of the phosphorus concentrations in every 10 natural rainfall events have small differences with each other, but the maximum and EMCs of the phosphorus concentrations have significant differences with each rainfall event. This was mainly influenced by the precipitation, maximum rainfall intensity and mean rainfall intensity (EMCs) and was less influenced by rainfall duration. DP and TP were mainly composed of DIP and PP, respectively. There were no significant correlations between DIP/DP dynamic changes and rainfall characteristics, whereas significant correlations between PP/TP dynamic changes and maximum rainfall intensity were detected. The production of DIP, DP, AND TP were mainly influenced by the direct runoff (DR) and base flow (BF). The EMCs of DIP, DP, TP and the variations of DIP/DP were all found to have significant polynomial relationships with DR/TR., but the dynamic changes of PP/ TP and the EMCS of PP were less influenced by the DR/TR.

Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, A Review

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Hosny Hasanean

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The Saudi Arabia (SA climate varies greatly, depending on the geography and the season. According to K ppen and Geiger, the climates of SA is “desert climate”. The analysis of the seasonal rainfall detects that spring and winter seasons have the highestrainfall incidence, respectively. Through the summer,small quantities of precipitation are observed, while autumn received more precipitation more than summer season considering the total annual rainfall. In all seasons, the SW area receives rainfall, with a maximum in spring, whereas in the summer season, the NE and NW areas receive very little quantities of precipitation. The Rub Al-Khali (the SE region is almost totally dry. The maximum amount of annual rainfall does not always happen at the highest elevation. Therefore, the elevation is not the only factor in rainfall distribution.A great inter-annual change in the rainfall over the SA for the period (1978–2009 is observed. In addition, in the same period, a linear decreasing trend is found in the observed rainfall, whilst in the recent past (1994–2009 a statistically significant negative trend is observed. In the Southern part of the Arabian Peninsula (AP and along the coast of the Red Sea, it is interesting to note that rainfall increased, whilst it decreased over most areas of SA during the 2000–2009 decade, compared to 1980–1989.Statistical and numerical models are used to predict rainfall over Saudi Arabia (SA. The statistical models based on stochastic models of ARIMA and numerical models based on Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies of Hadley Centre (PRECIS. Climate and its qualitative character and quantified range of possible future changes are investigated. The annual total rainfall decreases in most regions of the SA and only increases in the south. The summertime precipitation will be the highest between other seasons over the southern, the southwestern provinces and Asir mountains, while the wintertime

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

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Svoboda Vojtěch

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Statistical Properties of Rainfall in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Science.gov (United States)

Mascaro, G.

2016-12-01

The analysis of the rainfall statistical properties at multiple spatiotemporal scales is a necessary preliminary step to support modeling of urban hydrology, including flood prediction and simulation of impacts of land use changes. In this contribution, the rainfall statistical properties are analyzed in the Phoenix Metropolitan area and its surroundings ( 29600 km2) in Arizona using observations from 310 gauges of the Flood Control District of the Maricopa County network. Different techniques are applied to investigate the rainfall properties at temporal scales from 1 min to years and to quantify the associated spatial variability. Results reveal the following. The rainfall regime is characterized by high interannual variability, which is partially explained by teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation, and marked seasonality, with two maxima in the monsoon season from July to September and in winter from November to March. Elevation has a significant control on seasonal rainfall accumulation, strength of thermal convective activity during the monsoon, and peak occurrence of the rainfall diurnal cycle present in summer. The spatial correlation of wintertime rainfall is high even at short aggregation times (cells).

Rainfall limit of the N cycle on Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Ewing, Stephanie A.; Michalski, Greg; Thiemens, Mark; Quinn, Richard C.; Macalady, Jennifer L.; Kohl, Steven; Wankel, Scott D.; Kendall, Carol; McKay, Christopher P.; Amundson, Ronald

2007-09-01

In most climates on Earth, biological processes control soil N. In the Atacama Desert of Chile, aridity severely limits biology, and soils accumulate atmospheric NO3-. We examined this apparent transformation of the soil N cycle using a series of ancient Atacama Desert soils (>2 My) that vary in rainfall (21 to Mars.

Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

Rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites using satellite precipitation products

Science.gov (United States)

Gado, Tamer A.; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-11-01

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and their impacts on hydrologic systems and society are critical considerations in the design and management of a large number of water resources projects. As precipitation records are often limited or unavailable at many sites, it is essential to develop better methods for regional estimation of extreme rainfall at these partially-gauged or ungauged sites. In this study, an innovative method for regional rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites is presented. The new method (hereafter, this is called the RRFA-S) is based on corrected annual maximum series obtained from a satellite precipitation product (e.g., PERSIANN-CDR). The probability matching method (PMM) is used here for bias correction to match the CDF of satellite-based precipitation data with the gauged data. The RRFA-S method was assessed through a comparative study with the traditional index flood method using the available annual maximum series of daily rainfall in two different regions in USA (11 sites in Colorado and 18 sites in California). The leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to represent the ungauged site condition. Results of this numerical application have found that the quantile estimates obtained from the new approach are more accurate and more robust than those given by the traditional index flood method.

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for postfire debris-flow emergency-response planning

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Cannon, S.H.; Boldt, E.M.; Laber, J.L.; Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.

2011-01-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies can be faced with evacuation and resource-deployment decisions well in advance of coming winter storms and during storms themselves. Information critical to these decisions is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands is used to develop a system for classifying magnitudes of hydrologic response. The four-class system describes combinations of reported volumes of individual debris flows, consequences of debris flows and floods in an urban setting, and spatial extents of the hydrologic response. The range of rainfall conditions associated with different magnitude classes is defined by integrating local rainfall data with the response magnitude information. Magnitude I events can be expected when within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) of given durations (D) fall above the threshold A = 0.4D0.5 and below A = 0.5D0.6 for durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude II events will be generated in response to rainfall accumulations and durations between A = 0.4D0.5 and A = 0.9D0.5 for durations less than 1 h, and between A = 0.5D0.6 and A = 0.9D0.5 or durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude III events can be expected in response to rainfall conditions above the threshold A = 0.9D0.5. Rainfall threshold-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions as an emergency-response decision chart, which leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels. Use of this information in planning and response decision-making process could result in increased safety for both the public and emergency responders. ?? 2011 US Government.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-06-15

While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models?

Science.gov (United States)

Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

2013-01-01

The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

Mesoscale and Local Scale Evaluations of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates by Weather Radar Products during a Heavy Rainfall Event

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Basile Pauthier

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A 24-hour heavy rainfall event occurred in northeastern France from November 3 to 4, 2014. The accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE by PANTHERE and ANTILOPE radar-based gridded products during this particular event, is examined at both mesoscale and local scale, in comparison with two reference rain-gauge networks. Mesoscale accuracy was assessed for the total rainfall accumulated during the 24-hour event, using the Météo France operational rain-gauge network. Local scale accuracy was assessed for both total event rainfall and hourly rainfall accumulations, using the recently developed HydraVitis high-resolution rain gauge network Evaluation shows that (1 PANTHERE radar-based QPE underestimates rainfall fields at mesoscale and local scale; (2 both PANTHERE and ANTILOPE successfully reproduced the spatial variability of rainfall at local scale; (3 PANTHERE underestimates can be significantly improved at local scale by merging these data with rain gauge data interpolation (i.e., ANTILOPE. This study provides a preliminary evaluation of radar-based QPE at local scale, suggesting that merged products are invaluable for applications at very high resolution. The results obtained underline the importance of using high-density rain-gauge networks to obtain information at high spatial and temporal resolution, for better understanding of local rainfall variation, to calibrate remotely sensed rainfall products.

Multivariate analysis applied to monthly rainfall over Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

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Brito, Thábata T.; Oliveira-Júnior, José F.; Lyra, Gustavo B.; Gois, Givanildo; Zeri, Marcelo

2017-10-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall were identified over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The proximity to the coast and the complex topography create great diversity of rainfall over space and time. The dataset consisted of time series (1967-2013) of monthly rainfall over 100 meteorological stations. Clustering analysis made it possible to divide the stations into six groups (G1, G2, G3, G4, G5 and G6) with similar rainfall spatio-temporal patterns. A linear regression model was applied to a time series and a reference. The reference series was calculated from the average rainfall within a group, using nearby stations with higher correlation (Pearson). Based on t-test ( p River (G5) and the metropolitan area of the city of Rio de Janeiro (G6). The driest months in all regions were June, July and August, while November, December and January were the rainiest months. Sharp transitions occurred when considering monthly accumulated rainfall: from January to February, and from February to March, likely associated with episodes of "veranicos", i.e., periods of 4-15 days of duration with no rainfall.

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

Science.gov (United States)

Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought in the Kruger National Park

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N. Zambatis

1995-08-01

Full Text Available Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought, the severest in the recorded history of the Kruger National Park (KNP, are described. Mean total rainfall for the KNP was 235.6 mm (44.1 of the long- term mean, with a median of 239.9 mm. The num- ber of days on which rain occurred also decreased significantly from a mean annual total of 48.3 to a mean of 24.2 in 1991/92. Daily maximum, minimum and average temperatures for some months increased significantly, as did the number of days within certain maximum temperature range classes.

A dimensionless approach for the runoff peak assessment: effects of the rainfall event structure

Science.gov (United States)

Gnecco, Ilaria; Palla, Anna; La Barbera, Paolo

2018-02-01

The present paper proposes a dimensionless analytical framework to investigate the impact of the rainfall event structure on the hydrograph peak. To this end a methodology to describe the rainfall event structure is proposed based on the similarity with the depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves. The rainfall input consists of a constant hyetograph where all the possible outcomes in the sample space of the rainfall structures can be condensed. Soil abstractions are modelled using the Soil Conservation Service method and the instantaneous unit hydrograph theory is undertaken to determine the dimensionless form of the hydrograph; the two-parameter gamma distribution is selected to test the proposed methodology. The dimensionless approach is introduced in order to implement the analytical framework to any study case (i.e. natural catchment) for which the model assumptions are valid (i.e. linear causative and time-invariant system). A set of analytical expressions are derived in the case of a constant-intensity hyetograph to assess the maximum runoff peak with respect to a given rainfall event structure irrespective of the specific catchment (such as the return period associated with the reference rainfall event). Looking at the results, the curve of the maximum values of the runoff peak reveals a local minimum point corresponding to the design hyetograph derived according to the statistical DDF curve. A specific catchment application is discussed in order to point out the dimensionless procedure implications and to provide some numerical examples of the rainfall structures with respect to observed rainfall events; finally their effects on the hydrograph peak are examined.

Modelling rainfall amounts using mixed-gamma model for Kuantan district

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Moslim, Nor Hafizah

2017-05-01

An efficient design of flood mitigation and construction of crop growth models depend upon good understanding of the rainfall process and characteristics. Gamma distribution is usually used to model nonzero rainfall amounts. In this study, the mixed-gamma model is applied to accommodate both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts. The mixed-gamma model presented is for the independent case. The formulae of mean and variance are derived for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables, respectively. Firstly, the gamma distribution is used to model the nonzero rainfall amounts and the parameters of the distribution (shape and scale) are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Then, the mixed-gamma model is defined for both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts simultaneously. The formulae of mean and variance for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables derived are tested using the monthly rainfall amounts from rainfall stations within Kuantan district in Pahang Malaysia. Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, the results demonstrate that the descriptive statistics of the observed sum of rainfall amounts is not significantly different at 5% significance level from the generated sum of independent mixed-gamma variables. The methodology and formulae demonstrated can be applied to find the sum of more than three independent mixed-gamma variables.

Rainfall prediction methodology with binary multilayer perceptron neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Esteves, João Trevizoli; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; Ferraudo, Antonio Sergio

2018-05-01

Precipitation, in short periods of time, is a phenomenon associated with high levels of uncertainty and variability. Given its nature, traditional forecasting techniques are expensive and computationally demanding. This paper presents a soft computing technique to forecast the occurrence of rainfall in short ranges of time by artificial neural networks (ANNs) in accumulated periods from 3 to 7 days for each climatic season, mitigating the necessity of predicting its amount. With this premise it is intended to reduce the variance, rise the bias of data and lower the responsibility of the model acting as a filter for quantitative models by removing subsequent occurrences of zeros values of rainfall which leads to bias the and reduces its performance. The model were developed with time series from ten agriculturally relevant regions in Brazil, these places are the ones with the longest available weather time series and and more deficient in accurate climate predictions, it was available 60 years of daily mean air temperature and accumulated precipitation which were used to estimate the potential evapotranspiration and water balance; these were the variables used as inputs for the ANNs models. The mean accuracy of the model for all the accumulated periods were 78% on summer, 71% on winter 62% on spring and 56% on autumn, it was identified that the effect of continentality, the effect of altitude and the volume of normal precipitation, have an direct impact on the accuracy of the ANNs. The models have peak performance in well defined seasons, but looses its accuracy in transitional seasons and places under influence of macro-climatic and mesoclimatic effects, which indicates that this technique can be used to indicate the eminence of rainfall with some limitations.

Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

2010-05-01

Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

Spatial Analysis of High-Resolution Radar Rainfall and Citizen-Reported Flash Flood Data in Ultra-Urban New York City

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Brianne Smith

2017-09-01

Full Text Available New York City (NYC is an ultra-urban region, with over 50% impervious cover and buried stream channels. Traditional flood studies rely on the presence of stream gages to detect flood stage and discharge, but these methods cannot be used in ultra-urban areas. Here we create a high-resolution radar rainfall dataset for NYC and utilize citizen and expert reports of flooding throughout the city to study flash flooding in NYC. Results indicate that interactions between the urban area and land–sea boundary have an important impact on the spatial variability of both heavy rainfall and flooding, sometimes in contrast to results obtained for other cities. Top days of daily and hourly rainfall exhibit a rainfall maximum over the city center and an extended region of higher rainfall downwind of the city. The mechanism for flooding appears to vary across the city, with high groundwater tables influencing more coastal areas and high rain rates or large rain volumes influencing more inland areas. There is also a strong relationship between sewer type and flood frequency, with fewer floods observed in combined sewer areas. Flooding is driven by maximum one-hour to one-day rainfall, which is often substantially less rain than observed for the city-wide daily maximum.

Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

KAUST Repository

Militino, A. F.

2014-06-11

Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

KAUST Repository

Militino, A. F.; Ugarte, M. D.; Goicoa, T.; Genton, Marc G.

2014-01-01

Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

A Physically—Based Geometry Model for Transport Distance Estimation of Rainfall-Eroded Soil Sediment

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Qian-Gui Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Estimations of rainfall-induced soil erosion are mostly derived from the weight of sediment measured in natural runoff. The transport distance of eroded soil is important for evaluating landscape evolution but is difficult to estimate, mainly because it cannot be linked directly to the eroded sediment weight. The volume of eroded soil is easier to calculate visually using popular imaging tools, which can aid in estimating the transport distance of eroded soil through geometry relationships. In this study, we present a straightforward geometry model to predict the maximum sediment transport distance incurred by rainfall events of various intensity and duration. In order to verify our geometry prediction model, a series of experiments are reported in the form of a sediment volume. The results show that cumulative rainfall has a linear relationship with the total volume of eroded soil. The geometry model can accurately estimate the maximum transport distance of eroded soil by cumulative rainfall, with a low root-mean-square error (4.7–4.8 and a strong linear correlation (0.74–0.86.

Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

2016-04-01

Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

Comparison between Pludix and impact/optical disdrometers during rainfall measurement campaigns

Science.gov (United States)

Caracciolo, Clelia; Prodi, Franco; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2006-11-01

The performances of two couples of disdrometers based on different measuring principles are compared: a classical Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer and a recently developed device, called the Pludix tested in Ferrara, Italy, and Pludix and the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) tested in Cabauw, The Netherlands. First, the measuring principles of the different instruments are presented and compared. Secondly, the performances of the two pairs of disdrometers are analysed by comparing their rain amounts with nearby tipping bucket rain gauges and the inferred drop size distributions. The most important rainfall integral parameters (e.g. rain rate and radar reflectivity) and drop size distribution parameters are also analysed and compared. The data set for Ferrara comprises 13 rainfall events, with a total of 20 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 4 mm h - 1 . The data set for Cabauw consists of 9 events, with 25-50 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 20-40 mm h - 1 . The Pludix tends to underestimate slightly the bulk rainfall variables in less intense events, whereas it tends to overestimate with respect to the other instruments in heavier events. The correspondence of the inferred drop size distributions with those measured by the other disdrometers is reasonable, particularly with the Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer. Considering that the Pludix is still in a calibration and testing phase, the reported results are encouraging. A new signal inversion algorithm, which will allow the detection of rain drops throughout the entire diameter interval between 0.3 and 7.0 mm, is under development.

Testing the Beta-Lognormal Model in Amazonian Rainfall Fields Using the Generalized Space q-Entropy

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Hernán D. Salas

2017-12-01

Full Text Available We study spatial scaling and complexity properties of Amazonian radar rainfall fields using the Beta-Lognormal Model (BL-Model with the aim to characterize and model the process at a broad range of spatial scales. The Generalized Space q-Entropy Function (GSEF, an entropic measure defined as a continuous set of power laws covering a broad range of spatial scales, S q ( λ ∼ λ Ω ( q , is used as a tool to check the ability of the BL-Model to represent observed 2-D radar rainfall fields. In addition, we evaluate the effect of the amount of zeros, the variability of rainfall intensity, the number of bins used to estimate the probability mass function, and the record length on the GSFE estimation. Our results show that: (i the BL-Model adequately represents the scaling properties of the q-entropy, S q, for Amazonian rainfall fields across a range of spatial scales λ from 2 km to 64 km; (ii the q-entropy in rainfall fields can be characterized by a non-additivity value, q s a t, at which rainfall reaches a maximum scaling exponent, Ω s a t; (iii the maximum scaling exponent Ω s a t is directly related to the amount of zeros in rainfall fields and is not sensitive to either the number of bins to estimate the probability mass function or the variability of rainfall intensity; and (iv for small-samples, the GSEF of rainfall fields may incur in considerable bias. Finally, for synthetic 2-D rainfall fields from the BL-Model, we look for a connection between intermittency using a metric based on generalized Hurst exponents, M ( q 1 , q 2 , and the non-extensive order (q-order of a system, Θ q, which relates to the GSEF. Our results do not exhibit evidence of such relationship.

Fallout total β radioactivity in every rainfall in Aichi prefecture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohnuma, Shoko; Chaya, Kunio; Shimizu, Michihiko; Tomita, Ban-ichi; Hamamura, Norikatsu

1983-01-01

Fallout total β radioactivity was measured in every rainfall in the period from 1962 to 1981. Maximum value of monthly fallout was 462 mCi/km 2 at May 1966. Considering changes of monthly fallout, it was assumed that these 20 years were divided to 3 periods and these changes reflected the history of nuclear explosion tests in the world. Maximum value of annual fallout was 1,154 mCi/km 2 in 1963. Average of annual fallout in 1973 to 1981 was about 1/40 of maximum value. It was confirmed that changes of annual fallout were almost corresponded with changes of annual deposition of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in Tokyo reported by Katsuragi et al. Estimating the staying time of 90 Sr and 137 Cs at Stratosphere by the use of annual fallout of total β radioactivity and annual deposition of these radionuclides, 90 Sr was 1.3 years and 137 Cs was 1.5 years. Also, annual correlation between monthly fallout and monthly rainfall was regarded as significant in only 6 years of these 20 years. (author)

Karst Aquifer in Qatar and its bearing on Natural Rainfall Recharge

Science.gov (United States)

Baalousha, Husam; Ackerer, Philippe

2017-04-01

Qatar is an arid country with little rainfall and high evaporation. Surface water is non-existent so aquifer is the only source of natural water. The annual long-term averages of rainfall and evaporation are 80 mm and more than 2000 mm, respectively. Despite the low rainfall and high evaporation, natural recharge from rainfall occurs at an average of approximately 50 million m3 per year. Rainfall recharge in Qatar takes in land depressions that occur all over the country. These depressions are a result of land collapse due to sinkholes and cavity in the limestone formation. In the northern part of the country, karst features occur as a result of dissolution of limestone, which leads to land depressions. Results of this study shows groundwater recharge occurs in land depression areas, especially in the northern part of the country, where surface runoff accumulates in these land depressions and recharges the aquifer. This paper was made possible by NPRP grant # [NPRP 9-030-1-008] from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). The findings achieved herein are solely the responsibility of the author[s]."

Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

2010-05-01

Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ON THE SLOPE AREA OF MT. MERAPI

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Dhian Dharma Prayuda

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Rainfall has temporal and spatial characteristics with certain pattern which are affected by topographic variations and climatology of an area. The intensity of extreme rainfall is one of important characteristics related to the trigger factors for debris flow. This research will discuss the result of analysis on short duration rainfall data in the south and west slope of Mt. Merapi. Measured hourly rainfall data in 14 rainfall stations for the last 27 years were used as analysis input. The rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF was derived using empirical formula of Sherman, Kimijima, Haspers, and Mononobe method. The analysis on the characteristics of extreme rainfall intensity was performed by conducting spatial interpolation using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method. Result of analysis shows that IDF of rainfall in the research area fits to Sherman’s formula. Besides, the spatial distribution pattern of maximum rainfall intensity was assessed on the basis of area rainfall. Furthermore, the difference on the result of spatial map for one hour extreme rainfall based on isolated event and non-isolated event method can be evaluated. The result of this preliminary research is expected to be inputs in the establishment of debris flow early warning in Mt. Merapi slope area.

Temperature and rainfall are related to fertility rate after spring artificial insemination in small ruminants

Science.gov (United States)

Abecia, J. A.; Arrébola, F.; Macías, A.; Laviña, A.; González-Casquet, O.; Benítez, F.; Palacios, C.

2016-10-01

A total number of 1092 artificial inseminations (AIs) performed from March to May were documented over four consecutive years on 10 Payoya goat farms (36° N) and 19,392 AIs on 102 Rasa Aragonesa sheep farms (41° N) over 10 years. Mean, maximum, and minimum ambient temperatures, mean relative humidity, mean solar radiation, and total rainfall on each insemination day were recorded. Overall, fertility rates were 58 % in goats and 45 % in sheep. The fertility rates of the highest and lowest deciles of each of the meteorological variables indicated that temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on fertility in goats. Specifically, inseminations that were performed when mean (68 %), maximum (68 %), and minimum (66 %) temperatures were in the highest decile, and rainfall was in the lowest decile (59 %), had a significantly ( P goats and sheep.

Evaluation of Bias Correction Method for Satellite-Based Rainfall Data

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatti, Haris Akram; Rientjes, Tom; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Habib, Emad; Verhoef, Wouter

2016-01-01

With the advances in remote sensing technology, satellite-based rainfall estimates are gaining attraction in the field of hydrology, particularly in rainfall-runoff modeling. Since estimates are affected by errors correction is required. In this study, we tested the high resolution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite rainfall product (CMORPH) in the Gilgel Abbey catchment, Ethiopia. CMORPH data at 8 km-30 min resolution is aggregated to daily to match in-situ observations for the period 2003–2010. Study objectives are to assess bias of the satellite estimates, to identify optimum window size for application of bias correction and to test effectiveness of bias correction. Bias correction factors are calculated for moving window (MW) sizes and for sequential windows (SW’s) of 3, 5, 7, 9, …, 31 days with the aim to assess error distribution between the in-situ observations and CMORPH estimates. We tested forward, central and backward window (FW, CW and BW) schemes to assess the effect of time integration on accumulated rainfall. Accuracy of cumulative rainfall depth is assessed by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). To systematically correct all CMORPH estimates, station based bias factors are spatially interpolated to yield a bias factor map. Reliability of interpolation is assessed by cross validation. The uncorrected CMORPH rainfall images are multiplied by the interpolated bias map to result in bias corrected CMORPH estimates. Findings are evaluated by RMSE, correlation coefficient (r) and standard deviation (SD). Results showed existence of bias in the CMORPH rainfall. It is found that the 7 days SW approach performs best for bias correction of CMORPH rainfall. The outcome of this study showed the efficiency of our bias correction approach. PMID:27314363

Evaluation of Bias Correction Method for Satellite-Based Rainfall Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatti, Haris Akram; Rientjes, Tom; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Habib, Emad; Verhoef, Wouter

2016-06-15

With the advances in remote sensing technology, satellite-based rainfall estimates are gaining attraction in the field of hydrology, particularly in rainfall-runoff modeling. Since estimates are affected by errors correction is required. In this study, we tested the high resolution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite rainfall product (CMORPH) in the Gilgel Abbey catchment, Ethiopia. CMORPH data at 8 km-30 min resolution is aggregated to daily to match in-situ observations for the period 2003-2010. Study objectives are to assess bias of the satellite estimates, to identify optimum window size for application of bias correction and to test effectiveness of bias correction. Bias correction factors are calculated for moving window (MW) sizes and for sequential windows (SW's) of 3, 5, 7, 9, …, 31 days with the aim to assess error distribution between the in-situ observations and CMORPH estimates. We tested forward, central and backward window (FW, CW and BW) schemes to assess the effect of time integration on accumulated rainfall. Accuracy of cumulative rainfall depth is assessed by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). To systematically correct all CMORPH estimates, station based bias factors are spatially interpolated to yield a bias factor map. Reliability of interpolation is assessed by cross validation. The uncorrected CMORPH rainfall images are multiplied by the interpolated bias map to result in bias corrected CMORPH estimates. Findings are evaluated by RMSE, correlation coefficient (r) and standard deviation (SD). Results showed existence of bias in the CMORPH rainfall. It is found that the 7 days SW approach performs best for bias correction of CMORPH rainfall. The outcome of this study showed the efficiency of our bias correction approach.

Evaluation of Bias Correction Method for Satellite-Based Rainfall Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haris Akram Bhatti

2016-06-01

Full Text Available With the advances in remote sensing technology, satellite-based rainfall estimates are gaining attraction in the field of hydrology, particularly in rainfall-runoff modeling. Since estimates are affected by errors correction is required. In this study, we tested the high resolution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA Climate Prediction Centre (CPC morphing technique (CMORPH satellite rainfall product (CMORPH in the Gilgel Abbey catchment, Ethiopia. CMORPH data at 8 km-30 min resolution is aggregated to daily to match in-situ observations for the period 2003–2010. Study objectives are to assess bias of the satellite estimates, to identify optimum window size for application of bias correction and to test effectiveness of bias correction. Bias correction factors are calculated for moving window (MW sizes and for sequential windows (SW’s of 3, 5, 7, 9, …, 31 days with the aim to assess error distribution between the in-situ observations and CMORPH estimates. We tested forward, central and backward window (FW, CW and BW schemes to assess the effect of time integration on accumulated rainfall. Accuracy of cumulative rainfall depth is assessed by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE. To systematically correct all CMORPH estimates, station based bias factors are spatially interpolated to yield a bias factor map. Reliability of interpolation is assessed by cross validation. The uncorrected CMORPH rainfall images are multiplied by the interpolated bias map to result in bias corrected CMORPH estimates. Findings are evaluated by RMSE, correlation coefficient (r and standard deviation (SD. Results showed existence of bias in the CMORPH rainfall. It is found that the 7 days SW approach performs best for bias correction of CMORPH rainfall. The outcome of this study showed the efficiency of our bias correction approach.

Obtaining DDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall Data Using Bivariate Copula and Frequency Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sadri, Sara; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2009-01-01

, situated near Copenhagen in Denmark. For rainfall extracted using method 2, the marginal distribution of depth was found to fit the Generalized Pareto distribution while duration was found to fit the Gamma distribution, using the method of L-moments. The volume was fit with a generalized Pareto...... with duration for a given return period and name them DDF (depth-duration-frequency) curves. The copula approach does not assume the rainfall variables are independent or jointly normally distributed. Rainfall series are extracted in three ways: (1) by maximum mean intensity; (2) by depth and duration...... distribution and the duration was fit with a Pearson type III distribution for rainfall extracted using method 3. The Clayton copula was found to be appropriate for bivariate analysis of rainfall depth and duration for both methods 2 and 3. DDF curves derived using the Clayton copula for depth and duration...

Diagnostic of annual cycle and effects of the ENSO about the maximum intensity of duration rains between 1 and 24 hours at the Andes of Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Toro, Vladimir; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan F; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Vieira, Sara

2002-01-01

We study the distribution of maximum rainfall events during the annual cycle, for storms ranging from 1 to 24-hour in duration; by using information over 51 rain gauges locate at the Colombian Andes. Also, the effects of both phases of ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) are quantified. We found that maximum rainfall intensity events occur during the rainy periods of march-may and September-November. There is a strong similarity between the annual cycle of mean total rainfall and that of the maximum intensities of rainfall over the tropical Andes. This result is quite consistent throughout the three ranges of the Colombian Andes. At inter annual timescales, we found that both phases of ENSO are associated with disturbances of maximum rainfall events; since during La Nina there are more intense precipitation events than during El Nino, overall, for durations longer than 3 hours, rainfall intensity gets reduced by one order of magnitude with respect to shorter durations (1-3 hours). The most extreme recorded rainfall events are apparently not associated with the annual and inter annual large scales forcing and appear to be randomly generated by the important role of the land surface atmosphere in the genesis and dynamics of intense storm over central Colombia

Fallout total. beta. radioactivity in every rainfall in Aichi prefecture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ohnuma, Shoko; Chaya, Kunio; Shimizu, Michihiko; Tomita, Ban-ichi; Hamamura, Norikatsu (Aichi Prefectural Inst. of Public Health, Nagoya (Japan))

1983-01-01

Fallout total ..beta.. radioactivity was measured in every rainfall in the period from 1962 to 1981. Maximum value of monthly fallout was 462 mCi/km/sup 2/ at May 1966. Considering changes of monthly fallout, it was assumed that these 20 years were divided to 3 periods and these changes reflected the history of nuclear explosion tests in the world. Maximum value of annual fallout was 1,154 mCi/km/sup 2/ in 1963. Average of annual fallout in 1973 to 1981 was about 1/40 of maximum value. It was confirmed that changes of annual fallout were almost corresponded with changes of annual deposition of /sup 90/Sr and /sup 137/Cs in Tokyo reported by Katsuragi et al. Estimating the staying time of /sup 90/Sr and /sup 137/Cs at Stratosphere by the use of annual fallout of total ..beta.. radioactivity and annual deposition of these radionuclides, /sup 90/Sr was 1.3 years and /sup 137/Cs was 1.5 years. Also, annual correlation between monthly fallout and monthly rainfall was regarded as significant in only 6 years of these 20 years.

The evaluation of rainfall influence on combined sewer overflows characteristics: the Berlin case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandoval, S; Torres, A; Pawlowsky-Reusing, E; Riechel, M; Caradot, N

2013-01-01

The present study aims to explore the relationship between rainfall variables and water quality/quantity characteristics of combined sewer overflows (CSOs), by the use of multivariate statistical methods and online measurements at a principal CSO outlet in Berlin (Germany). Canonical correlation results showed that the maximum and average rainfall intensities are the most influential variables to describe CSO water quantity and pollutant loads whereas the duration of the rainfall event and the rain depth seem to be the most influential variables to describe CSO pollutant concentrations. The analysis of partial least squares (PLS) regression models confirms the findings of the canonical correlation and highlights three main influences of rainfall on CSO characteristics: (i) CSO water quantity characteristics are mainly influenced by the maximal rainfall intensities, (ii) CSO pollutant concentrations were found to be mostly associated with duration of the rainfall and (iii) pollutant loads seemed to be principally influenced by dry weather duration before the rainfall event. The prediction quality of PLS models is rather low (R² < 0.6) but results can be useful to explore qualitatively the influence of rainfall on CSO characteristics.

Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Hearman

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2 for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2. Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time

Analysis of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the Eastern Pyrenees

Science.gov (United States)

Portilla Gamboa, M.; Hürlimann, M.; Corominas, J.

2009-09-01

The inventory of rainfall-induced mass movements, rainfall data, and slope characteristics are considered the basis of the analysis determining appropriate rainfall thresholds for mass movements in a specific region. The rainfall-induced landslide thresholds established in the literature for the Catalan Pyrenees have been formulated referring to the rainfall events of November 1982, September 1992, December 1997, and others occurred after 1999. It has been shown that a rainfall intensity greater than 190 mm in 24 hours without antecedent rainfall would be necessary to produce mass movements (Corominas and Moya, 1999; Corominas et al, 2002) or 51mm in 24h with 61 mm of accumulated rainfall (Marco, 2007). Short duration-high intensity rainfalls have brought about several mass movements in some Catalonian regions throughout the course of twenty-first century (Berga, Bonaigua, Saldes, Montserrat, Port-Ainé, Riu Runer, and Sant Nicolau). Preliminary analysis of these events shows that it is necessary to review the thresholds defined so far and redo the existing inventory of mass movements for the Catalan Pyrenees. The present work shows the usefulness of aerial photographs in the reconstruction of the inventory of historic mass movements (Molló-Queralbs, 1940; Arties-Vielha, 1963; Barruera-Senet, 1940 and 1963, and Berga-Cercs, 1982, 1997 and 2008). Also, it highlights the treatment given to scarce and scattered rainfall data available inside these Catalonia’s regions, and the application of Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) in the management of the gathered information. The results acquired until now show that the historic rainfall events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees have yielded many more mass movements than those reported in the literature. Besides, it can be said that the thresholds formulated for the Pyrenees are valid for longstanding regional rainfalls, and not for local downpours. In the latter cases it should be necessary to take into account the

Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Shannon Entropy Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Rahimi, A.; Zhang, L.

2012-12-01

assure that the entropy-based joint rainfall-runoff distribution are satisfactorily derived. Overall, the study shows the Shannon entropy theory can be satisfactorily applied to model the dependence between rainfall and runoff. The study also shows that the entropy-based joint distribution is an appropriate approach to capture the dependence structure that cannot be captured by the convenient bivariate joint distributions. Joint Rainfall-Runoff Entropy Based PDF, and Corresponding Marginal PDF and Histogram for W12 Watershed The K-S Test Result and RMSE on Univariate Distributions Derived from the Maximum Entropy Based Joint Probability Distribution;

Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Witter, J.V.

1984-01-01

Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

Climate change impacts on rainfall and temperature in sugarcane growing Upper Gangetic Plains of India

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, Ram Ratan; Srivastava, Tapendra Kumar; Singh, Pushpa

2018-01-01

Assessment of variability in climate extremes is crucial for managing their aftermath on crops. Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), a major C4 crop, dominates the Upper Gangetic Plain (UGP) in India and is vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and rainfall. The present study was taken up to assess the weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of rainfall and temperature variability during the period 1956-2015 (60 years) for envisaging the probabilities of different levels of rainfall suitable for sugarcane in UGP in the present climate scenario. The analysis revealed that 87% of total annual rainfall was received during southwest monsoon months (June-September) while post-monsoon (October to February) and pre-monsoon months (March-May) accounted for only 9.4 and 3.6%, respectively. There was a decline in both monthly and annual normal rainfall during the period 1986-2015 as compared to 1956-1985, and an annual rainfall deficiency of 205.3 mm was recorded. Maximum monthly normal rainfall deficiencies of 52.8, 84.2, and 54.0 mm were recorded during the months of July, August, and September, respectively, while a minimum rainfall deficiency of 2.2 mm was observed in November. There was a decline by 196.3 mm in seasonal normal rainfall during June-September (kharif). The initial probability of a week going dry was higher (> 70%) from the 1st to the 25th week; however, standard meteorological weeks (SMW) 26 to 37 had more than 50% probability of going wet. The normal annual maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased by 0.4 °C while normal annual minimum temperatures (Tmin) increased by 0.21 °C. Analysis showed that there was an increase in frequency of drought from 1986 onwards in the zone and a monsoon rainfall deficit by about 21.25% during June-September which coincided with tillering and grand growth stage of sugarcane. The imposed drought during the growth and elongation phase is emerging as a major constraint in realizing high

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Capra, Lucia; Coviello, Velio; Borselli, Lorenzo; Márquez-Ramírez, Víctor-Hugo; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raul

2018-03-01

The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h -1. The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the south-southwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5-6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m3 s -1. Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green-Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses

Identification of homogeneous regions for rainfall regional frequency analysis considering typhoon event in South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Heo, J. H.; Ahn, H.; Kjeldsen, T. R.

2017-12-01

South Korea is prone to large, and often disastrous, rainfall events caused by a mixture of monsoon and typhoon rainfall phenomena. However, traditionally, regional frequency analysis models did not consider this mixture of phenomena when fitting probability distributions, potentially underestimating the risk posed by the more extreme typhoon events. Using long-term observed records of extreme rainfall from 56 sites combined with detailed information on the timing and spatial impact of past typhoons from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), this study developed and tested a new mixture model for frequency analysis of two different phenomena; events occurring regularly every year (monsoon) and events only occurring in some years (typhoon). The available annual maximum 24 hour rainfall data were divided into two sub-samples corresponding to years where the annual maximum is from either (1) a typhoon event, or (2) a non-typhoon event. Then, three-parameter GEV distribution was fitted to each sub-sample along with a weighting parameter characterizing the proportion of historical events associated with typhoon events. Spatial patterns of model parameters were analyzed and showed that typhoon events are less commonly associated with annual maximum rainfall in the North-West part of the country (Seoul area), and more prevalent in the southern and eastern parts of the country, leading to the formation of two distinct typhoon regions: (1) North-West; and (2) Southern and Eastern. Using a leave-one-out procedure, a new regional frequency model was tested and compared to a more traditional index flood method. The results showed that the impact of typhoon on design events might previously have been underestimated in the Seoul area. This suggests that the use of the mixture model should be preferred where the typhoon phenomena is less frequent, and thus can have a significant effect on the rainfall-frequency curve. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31

Tempo de retorno das precipitações máximas em lavras (MG pela distribuição de valores extremos do tipo I Maximum rainfall return period by extreme values type I distribution in Lavras, Minas Gerais state, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Alberto Beijo

2005-06-01

Full Text Available O conhecimento das precipitações máximas prováveis é de grande importância na elaboração de projetos agrícolas e de engenharia hidráulica. Tendo em vista esse fato, objetivou-se com este trabalho determinar as estimativas pontual e intervalar da precipitação diária máxima provável para os tempos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 e 75 anos, para períodos de quinze dias, um mês e um ano na região de Lavras (MG, utilizando-se a distribuição de valores extremos do tipo I. Aplicou-se o método da máxima verossimilhança para a estimação dos parâmetros dessa distribuição, sendo os intervalos de confiança das estimativas de precipitações máximas prováveis obtidos aplicando-se técnica de reamostragem "Jackknife". Pelos resultados, verificou-se que houve um bom ajuste da distribuição para os dados para a série anual, ao passo que na série mensal, nos meses de julho e agosto, ela não se ajustou. Para a série de quinze dias, o ajuste ocorreu apenas na estação chuvosa. Pelos resultados dos intervalos de confiança, pode-se adotar valores mais adequados de precipitação máxima no dimensionamento de obras hidráulicas na região de Lavras.The knowledge of the probable maximum rainfall is very important in the elaboration of agricultural and hydraulic engineering projects. Therefore this paper aimed to determine punctual and interval estimates of the probable maximum rainfall for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 75 years, at region of Lavras using the extreme values type I distribution, for periods of fifteen days, one month and one year. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the distribution were worked out. Jackknife Confidence Intervals for the estimates of probable maximum rainfall were calculated. A good fitting was observed for the annual series data; but not for the monthly, series data (specifically in july and august; and for the fifteen days series data no good model was found for the

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

2015-10-15

A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

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Jefferson Schick

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

2015-01-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

Analysis of climate change impact on rainfall pattern of Sambas district, West Kalimantan

Science.gov (United States)

Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang; Slamet S, Lilik

2018-05-01

Climate change is one of the most important issues being discussed globally. It caused by global warming and indirectly affecting the world climate cycle. This research discussed the effect of climate change on rainfall pattern of Sambas District and predicted the future rainfall pattern due to climate change. CRU and TRMM were used and has been validated using in situ data. This research was used Climate Modelling and Prediction using CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) which also validated by in situ data (correlation= 0.81). The results show that temperature trends in Sambas regency increased to 0.082°C/yr from 1991-2014 according to CRU data. High temperature trigger changes in rainfall patterns. Rainfall pattern in Sambas District has an equatorial type where the peak occurs when the sun is right on the equator. Rainfall in Sambas reaches the maximum in March and September when the equinox occurs. The CCAM model is used to project rainfall in Sambas District in the future. The model results show that rainfall in Sambas District is projected to increase to 0.018 mm/month until 2055 so the flow rate increase 0.006 m3/month and the water balance increase 0.009 mm/month.

The modification of the typhoon rainfall climatology model in Taiwan

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C.-S. Lee

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study is focused on the modification of a typhoon rainfall climatological model, by using the dataset up to 2006 and including data collected from rain gauge stations established after the 921 earthquake (1999. Subsequently, the climatology rainfall models for westward- and northward-moving typhoons are established by using the typhoon track classification from the Central Weather Bureau. These models are also evaluated and examined using dependent cases collected between 1989 and 2006 and independent cases collected from 2007 to 2011. For the dependent cases, the average total rainfall at all rain gauge stations forecasted using the climatology rainfall models for westward- (W-TRCM12 and northward-moving (N-TRCM12 typhoons is superior to that obtained using the original climatological model (TRCM06. Model W-TRCM12 significantly improves the precipitation underestimation of model TRCM06. The independent cases show that model W-TRCM12 provides better accumulated rainfall forecasts and distributions than model TRCM06. A climatological model for accompanied northeastern monsoons (A-TRCM12 for special typhoon types has also been established. The current A-TRCM12 model only contains five historical cases and various typhoon combinations can cause precipitation in different regions. Therefore, precipitation is likely to be significantly overestimated and high false alarm ratios are likely to occur in specific regions. For example, model A-TRCM12 significantly overestimates the rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mitag, an independent case from 2007. However, it has a higher probability of detection than model TRCM06. From a disaster prevention perspective, a high probability of detection is much more important than a high false alarm ratio. The modified models can contribute significantly to operational forecast.

Accumulation rate in a tropical Andean glacier as a proxy for northern Amazon precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

da Rocha Ribeiro, Rafael; Simões, Jefferson Cardia; Ramirez, Edson; Taupin, Jean-Denis; Assayag, Elias; Dani, Norberto

2018-04-01

Andean tropical glaciers have shown a clear shrinkage throughout the last few decades. However, it is unclear how this general retreat is associated with variations in rainfall patterns in the Amazon basin. To investigate this question, we compared the annual net accumulation variations in the Bolivian Cordillera Real (Andes), which is derived from an ice core from the Nevado Illimani (16° 37' S, 67° 46' W), covering the period 1960-1999 using the Amazonian Rainfall Index, Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The accumulation rate at the Nevado Illimani ice core decreased by almost 25% after 1980, from 1.02 w.eq. a-1 (water equivalent per year) in the 1961-1981 period to 0.76 w.eq. a-1 in the 1981-1999 period. The Northern Amazonian Rainfall (NAR) index best reflects changes in accumulation rates in the Bolivian ice core. Our proposal is based on two observations: (1) This area shows reduced rainfall associated with a more frequent and intense El Niño (during the positive phase of the MEI). The opposite (more rain) is true during La Niña phases. (2) Comparisons of the ice core record and NAR, PDO, and MEI indexes showed similar trends for the early 1980s, represented by a decrease in the accumulation rates and its standard deviations, probably indicating the same causality. The general changes observed by early 1980s coincided with the beginning of a PDO warm phase. This was followed by an increase in the Amazonian and tropical Andean precipitation from 1999, coinciding with a new PDO phase. However, this increase did not result in an expansion of the Zongo Glacier area.

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Science.gov (United States)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

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M. P. Mittermaier

2008-05-01

Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

The effects of wind and rainfall on suspended sediment concentration related to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xinfeng; Tang Danling; Li Zizhen; Zhang Fengpan

2009-01-01

The effects of rainfall and wind speed on the dynamics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC), during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, were analyzed using spatial statistical models. The results showed a positive effect of wind speed on SSC, and inconsistent effects (positive and negative) of rainfall on SSC. The effects of wind speed and rainfall on SSC weakened immediately around the tsunami, indicating tsunami-caused floods and earthquake-induced shaking may have suddenly disturbed the ocean-atmosphere interaction processes, and thus weakened the effects of wind speed and rainfall on SSC. Wind speed and rainfall increased markedly, and reached their maximum values immediately after the tsunami week. Rainfall at this particular week exceeded twice the average for the same period over the previous 4 years. The tsunami-affected air-sea interactions may have increased both wind speed and rainfall immediately after the tsunami week, which directly lead to the variations in SSC.

FROM RAINFALL DATA

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Sisuru Sendanayake

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There are many correlations developed to predict incident solar radiation at a givenlocation developed based on geographical and meteorological parameters. However, allcorrelations depend on accurate measurement and availability of weather data such assunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, maximum and minimumtemperatures etc, which essentially is a costly exercise in terms of equipment andlabour. Sri Lanka being a tropical island of latitudinal change of only 30 along thelength of the country, the meteorological factors govern the amount of incidentradiation. Considering the cloud formation and wind patterns over Sri Lanka as well asthe seasonal rainfall patterns, it can be observed that the mean number of rainy dayscan be used to predict the monthly average daily global radiation which can be used forcalculations in solar related activities conveniently.

Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

2017-01-01

Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.

2017-01-01

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

Rainfall simulation in education

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

2016-04-01

Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

Comparing rainfall patterns between regions in Peninsular Malaysia via a functional data analysis technique

Science.gov (United States)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Jemain, Abdul Aziz; Hamdan, Muhammad Fauzee; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah

2011-12-01

SummaryNormally, rainfall data is collected on a daily, monthly or annual basis in the form of discrete observations. The aim of this study is to convert these rainfall values into a smooth curve or function which could be used to represent the continuous rainfall process at each region via a technique known as functional data analysis. Since rainfall data shows a periodic pattern in each region, the Fourier basis is introduced to capture these variations. Eleven basis functions with five harmonics are used to describe the unimodal rainfall pattern for stations in the East while five basis functions which represent two harmonics are needed to describe the rainfall pattern in the West. Based on the fitted smooth curve, the wet and dry periods as well as the maximum and minimum rainfall values could be determined. Different rainfall patterns are observed among the studied regions based on the smooth curve. Using the functional analysis of variance, the test results indicated that there exist significant differences in the functional means between each region. The largest differences in the functional means are found between the East and Northwest regions and these differences may probably be due to the effect of topography and, geographical location and are mostly influenced by the monsoons. Therefore, the same inputs or approaches might not be useful in modeling the hydrological process for different regions.

Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

Science.gov (United States)

Bel, Coraline; Liébault, Frédéric; Navratil, Oldrich; Eckert, Nicolas; Bellot, Hervé; Fontaine, Firmin; Laigle, Dominique

2017-08-01

This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity-duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

Gamma-ray dose rate increase at rainfall events and their air-mass origins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iyogi, Takashi; Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Inaba, Jiro

2007-01-01

The environmental γ-ray dose rate and precipitation rates were measured at our institute, in Rokkasho, Aomori, Japan. We analyzed 425 rainfall events in which the precipitation rate was over 0.5 mm from April through November during the years 2003 to 2005. Backward trajectories for 5 d starting from 1000 m above Rokkasho at the time of the maximum dose rate in a rainfall event, were calculated by using the HYSPLIT model of the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory. The trajectories for 5 d were classified by visual inspection according to the passage areas; Pacific Ocean, Asian Continent and Japan Islands. The increase of cumulative environmental γ-ray dose during a rainfall event was plotted against the precipitation in the event, and their relationship was separately examined according to the air-mass passage area, i.e. origin of the air-mass. Our results showed that the origin of air-mass was an important factor affecting the increase of environmental γ-ray dose rate by rainfall. (author)

Rainfall: State of the Science

Science.gov (United States)

Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura

2006-01-01

Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

Changing On Diurnal Cycle Of Rainfall In Northern Coastal Of West Java

Science.gov (United States)

Yulihastin, E.; Hadi, T. W.; Ningsih, N. S.

2017-12-01

The floods event in the north of Java was largely due to persistent of rainfall that occurred in the morning which indicated of deviation of diurnal pattern of rainfall. The shift of the phase of diurnal rainfall cycle using TRMM satellite hourly data of 3B41RT on the rainy period of 2000-2016 exhibits over land from Late Afternoon-Early Midnight (LA-EM) to morning. The peak of the cycle changes from diurnal to semidiurnal with a peak occurring in LA-EM and morning. Location of rainfall which usually occurs in the oceans shifted into near coastal area. The classification of diurnal rainfall cycles based on composite analysis shows four types: Normal (N) Type (45.6%) with one peak rainfall occurring in the afternoon until night, Diurnal (D) Type (26%) with one peak and phase opposite to normal type, Semidiurnal (SD) Type (6.5 %) with two peaks and the main peak occurring in the afternoon until night, Third Diurnal (TD) Type (21.7%) with three peaks and the main peak occurs in the morning. The classification was confirmed using the objective method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and obtained three IMFs representing three diurnal cycle modes of Type TD (67.8%) with the main rain peak taking place in the afternoon, Type D with rain peak occurring in the early hours (18.9%), and SD type (9.9%) with the first peak occurred in the afternoon. For D Type, the results also prove that the diurnal cycle with significant deviations in amplitude occurred in February 2002, 2004, 2008, 2014, wich is the maximum rainfall occurs in the EM. It also seems that in those years, rainfall intensity is concentrated on the northern coast of West Java while in the Java Sea rainfall was minimum.

[Effects of rainfall intensity on rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on Loess slope land].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yi; Shao, Ming'an

2006-12-01

With simulation test, this paper studied the patterns of rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on typical Loess slope land, and analyzed the quantitative relations between the infiltration and redistribution and the movement of soil water and mass, with rainfall intensity as the main affecting factor. The results showed that rainfall intensity had significant effects on the rainfall infiltration and water redistribution in soil, and the microcosmic movement of soil water. The larger the rainfall intensity, the deeper the wetting front of rainfall infiltration and redistribution was, and the wetting front of soil water redistribution had a slower increase velocity than that of rainfall infiltration. The power function of the wetting front with time, and also with rainfall intensity, was fitted well. There was also a quantitative relation between the wetting front of rainfall redistribution and the duration of rainfall. The larger the rainfall intensity, the higher the initial and steady infiltration rates were, and the cumulative infiltration increased faster with time. Moreover, the larger the rainfall intensity, the smaller the wetting front difference was at the top and the end of the slope. With the larger rainfall intensity, both the difference of soil water content and its descending trend between soil layers became more obvious during the redistribution process on slope land.

Determination of mean rainfall from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) using a mixed lognormal distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, Wesley; Chase, Robert

1992-01-01

Global estimates of monthly, seasonal, and annual oceanic rainfall are computed for a period of one year using data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Instantaneous rainfall estimates are derived from brightness temperature values obtained from the satellite data using the Hughes D-matrix algorithm. The instantaneous rainfall estimates are stored in 1 deg square bins over the global oceans for each month. A mixed probability distribution combining a lognormal distribution describing the positive rainfall values and a spike at zero describing the observations indicating no rainfall is used to compute mean values. The resulting data for the period of interest are fitted to a lognormal distribution by using a maximum-likelihood. Mean values are computed for the mixed distribution and qualitative comparisons with published historical results as well as quantitative comparisons with corresponding in situ raingage data are performed.

TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

2012-04-01

(snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

Generation of intensity duration frequency curves and intensity temporal variability pattern of intense rainfall for Lages/SC

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Célio Orli Cardoso

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze the frequency distribution and intensity temporal variability of intense rainfall for Lages/SC from diary pluviograph data. Data on annual series of maximum rainfalls from rain gauges of the CAV-UDESC Weather Station in Lages/SC were used from 2000 to 2009. Gumbel statistic distribution was applied in order to obtain the rainfall height and intensity in the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. Results showed intensity-duration-frequency curves (I-D-F for those return periods, as well as I-D-F equations: i=2050.Tr0,20.(t+30-0,89, where i was the intensity, Tr was the rainfall return periods and t was the rainfall duration. For the intensity of temporal variability pattern along of the rainfall duration time, the convective, or advanced pattern was the predominant, with larger precipitate rainfalls in the first half of the duration. The same pattern presented larger occurrences in the spring and summer stations.

[Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates].

Science.gov (United States)

González Chávez, Rosabel

2015-09-01

In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobb, Alexander R; Hoyt, Alison M; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su'ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F

2017-06-27

Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage.

How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyt, Alison M.; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su’ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F.

2017-01-01

Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage. PMID:28607068

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-01-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-07-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972 2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.

The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul

2013-06-01

The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Jayothisa, W; Nor, M D Mohd; Rakhecha, P R; Muda, R S; Ahmad, M N; Razad, A Z Abdul

2013-01-01

The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 and 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

2012-04-01

Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

Applying Spatially Distributed Rainfall to a Hydrological Model in a Tropical Watershed, Manoa Watershed, in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Y. F.; Tsang, Y. P.

2017-12-01

Rainfall in Hawaii is characterized with high spatial and temporal variability. In the south side of Oahu, the Manoa watershed, with an area of 11 km2, has the annual maximum rainfall of 3900mm and the minimum rainfall of 1000 mm. Despite this high spatial heterogeneity, the rain gage network seems insufficiently capture this pattern. When simulating stream flow and predicting floods with hydrological models in Hawaii, the model performance is often unsatisfactory because of inadequate representation of rainfall data. Longman et al. (in prep.) have developed the spatially distributed daily rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands by applying ordinary kriging, yet these data have not been applied to hydrological models. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the streamflow simulation by applying spatially-distributed rainfall in the Manoa watershed. We first used point daily-rainfall at Lyon Arboretum from National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) as the uniform rainfall input. Secondly, we summarized sub-watershed mean rainfall from the daily spatial-statistical rainfall. Both rainfall data are available from 1999 to 2014. The SWAT was set up for five-year warm-up, nine-year calibration, and two-year validation. The model parameters were calibrated and validated with four U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. We compared the calibrated watershed parameters, characteristics, and assess the streamflow hydrographs from these two rainfall inputs. The differences and improvement of using spatially distributed rainfall input in SWAT were discussed. In addition to improving the model by the representation of rainfall, this study helped us having a better understanding of the watershed hydrological response in Hawaii.

Validity and extension of the SCS-CN method for computing infiltration and rainfall-excess rates

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Singh, Vijay P.

2004-12-01

A criterion is developed for determining the validity of the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method. According to this criterion, the existing SCS-CN method is found to be applicable when the potential maximum retention, S, is less than or equal to twice the total rainfall amount. The criterion is tested using published data of two watersheds. Separating the steady infiltration from capillary infiltration, the method is extended for predicting infiltration and rainfall-excess rates. The extended SCS-CN method is tested using 55 sets of laboratory infiltration data on soils varying from Plainfield sand to Yolo light clay, and the computed and observed infiltration and rainfall-excess rates are found to be in good agreement.

Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model

Science.gov (United States)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

2014-10-01

In early summer (May-June, MJ) the strongest rainfall belt of the northern hemisphere occurs over the East Asian (EA) subtropical front. During this period the South China (SC) rainfall reaches its annual peak and represents the maximum rainfall variability over EA. Hence we establish an SC rainfall index, which is the MJ mean precipitation averaged over 72 stations over SC (south of 28°N and east of 110°E) and represents superbly the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of MJ precipitation variability over EA. In order to predict SC rainfall, we established a physical-empirical model. Analysis of 34-year observations (1979-2012) reveals three physically consequential predictors. A plentiful SC rainfall is preceded in the previous winter by (a) a dipole sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (b) a tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic Ocean, and (c) a warming tendency in northern Asia. These precursors foreshadow enhanced Philippine Sea subtropical High and Okhotsk High in early summer, which are controlling factors for enhanced subtropical frontal rainfall. The physical empirical model built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated forecast correlation skill of 0.75 for 1979-2012. Surprisingly, this skill is substantially higher than four-dynamical models' ensemble prediction for 1979-2010 period (0.15). The results here suggest that the low prediction skill of current dynamical models is largely due to models' deficiency and the dynamical prediction has large room to improve.

An Establishment of Rainfall-induced Soil Erosion Index for the Slope Land in Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Shu, Chia-Chun; Chen, Ying-Hui

2014-05-01

With more and more concentrated extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change, in Taiwan, mass cover soil erosion occurred frequently and led to sediment related disasters in high intensity precipiton region during typhoons or torrential rain storms. These disasters cause a severely lost to the property, public construction and even the casualty of the resident in the affected areas. Therefore, we collected soil losses by using field investigation data from the upstream of watershed where near speific rivers to explore the soil erosion caused by heavy rainfall under different natural environment. Soil losses induced by rainfall and runoff were obtained from the long-term soil depth measurement of erosion plots, which were established in the field, used to estimate the total volume of soil erosion. Furthermore, the soil erosion index was obtained by referring to natural environment of erosion test plots and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). All data collected from field were used to compare with the one obtained from laboratory test recommended by the Technical Regulation for Soil and Water Conservation in Taiwan. With MATLAB as a modeling platform, evaluation model for soil erodibility factors was obtained by golden section search method, considering factors contributing to the soil erosion; such as degree of slope, soil texture, slope aspect, the distance far away from water system, topography elevation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution map of soil erosion index was developed by this project and used to estimate the rainfall-induced soil losses from erosion plots have been established in the study area since 2008. All results indicated that soil erodibility increases with accumulated rainfall amount regardless of soil characteristics measured in the field. Under the same accumulated rainfall amount, the volume of soil erosion also increases with the degree of slope and soil permeability, but decreases with the

Radar–rain-gauge rainfall estimation for hydrological applications in small catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Gabriele

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The accurate evaluation of the precipitation's time–spatial structure is a critical step for rainfall–runoff modelling. Particularly for small catchments, the variability of rainfall can lead to mismatched results. Large errors in flow evaluation may occur during convective storms, responsible for most of the flash floods in small catchments in the Mediterranean area. During such events, we may expect large spatial and temporal variability. Therefore, using rain-gauge measurements only can be insufficient in order to adequately depict extreme rainfall events. In this work, a double-level information approach, based on rain gauges and weather radar measurements, is used to improve areal rainfall estimations for hydrological applications. In order to highlight the effect that precipitation fields with different level of spatial details have on hydrological modelling, two kinds of spatial rainfall fields were computed for precipitation data collected during 2015, considering both rain gauges only and their merging with radar information. The differences produced by these two precipitation fields in the computation of the areal mean rainfall accumulation were evaluated considering 999 basins of the region Calabria, southern Italy. Moreover, both of the two precipitation fields were used to carry out rainfall–runoff simulations at catchment scale for main precipitation events that occurred during 2015 and the differences between the scenarios obtained in the two cases were analysed. A representative case study is presented in detail.

Assessment of the phytoremediation potential of Panicum maximum ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Obvious signs of phyto-toxicity however appeared in plants exposed to 120 ppm Pb2+ and Cd2+ at day twenty-three, suggesting that P. maximum may be a moderate metal accumulator. Keywords: phytoremediation, heavy metals, uptake, tissues, accumulator. African Journal of Biotechnology, Vol 13(19), 1979-1984 ...

A modular class of multisite monthly rainfall generators for water resource management and impact studies

Science.gov (United States)

Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.

2012-09-01

SummaryThis study introduces a class of stochastic multisite monthly rainfall generators devised for application in water resources management problems, such as the sensitivity analysis of droughts and extreme rainfall scenarios under external climatic and non-climatic forcing mechanisms. The modelling framework relies on three elements: (1) a classical deseasonalisation scheme based on log-transformed observations, (2) the nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach and (3) parametric Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). As the bootstrap and GAMLSS modules are alternative techniques for simulating each month, the free choice between them makes the structure of the model modular and flexible, so that it can be easily adapted to different climatic conditions, and can be customized based on the specific water resource problem. The model was set up and calibrated to simulate monthly rainfall from six locations in England and Wales to produce a suitable input for drought analysis. The results of the case study point out that the model can capture several characteristics of the rainfall series. In particular, it enables the simulation of low and high rainfall scenarios more extreme than those observed as well as the reproduction of the distribution of the annual accumulated rainfall, and of the relationship between the rainfall and circulation indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST), thus making the framework well-suited for sensitivity analysis under alternative climate scenarios and additional forcing variables.

Study of acid mine drainage management with evaluating climate and rainfall in East Pit 3 West Banko coal mine

Science.gov (United States)

Rochyani, Neny

2017-11-01

Acid mine drainage is a major problem for the mining environment. The main factor that formed acid mine drainage is the volume of rainfall. Therefore, it is important to know clearly the main climate pattern of rainfall and season on the management of acid mine drainage. This study focuses on the effects of rainfall on acid mine water management. Based on daily rainfall data, monthly and seasonal patterns by using Gumbel approach is known the amount of rainfall that occurred in East Pit 3 West Banko area. The data also obtained the highest maximum daily rainfall on 165 mm/day and the lowest at 76.4 mm/day, where it is known that the rainfall conditions during the period 2007 - 2016 is from November to April so the use of lime is also slightly, While the low rainfall is from May to October and the use of lime will be more and more. Based on calculation of lime requirement for each return period, it can be seen the total of lime and financial requirement for treatment of each return period.

Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

Science.gov (United States)

Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

2011-12-01

-band radar data is used. This analysis highlights the interest of implementing X-band radars in urban areas. Indeed such radars provide the rainfall data at a hectometric resolution that would enable a better nowcasting and management of storm water. The multifractal properties of the simulated hydrographs were analysed with the help of simulated rainfall fields of resolution 111 m x 111 m x 1 min, lasting 4 hours, and corresponding to a 5 year return period event. On the whole, the discharge exhibits a good scaling behaviour over the range 4 h - 5 min. Both UM parameters tend to be greater for the discharge than for the rainfall. The notion of maximum probable singularity was used to clarify the consequences on the assessment of extremes. It appears that the urban drainage network basically reproduces the extremes, or only slightly damps them, at least in terms of multifractal statistics. The results were obtained with the financial support from the EU FP7 SMARTesT Project and the Chair "Hydrology for Resilient Cities" (sponsored by Veolia) of Ecole des Ponts ParisTech.

Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

Science.gov (United States)

Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng

2016-05-01

Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

Science.gov (United States)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2017-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

Optimization of rainfall networks using information entropy and temporal variability analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenqi; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

2018-04-01

Rainfall networks are the most direct sources of precipitation data and their optimization and evaluation are essential and important. Information entropy can not only represent the uncertainty of rainfall distribution but can also reflect the correlation and information transmission between rainfall stations. Using entropy this study performs optimization of rainfall networks that are of similar size located in two big cities in China, Shanghai (in Yangtze River basin) and Xi'an (in Yellow River basin), with respect to temporal variability analysis. Through an easy-to-implement greedy ranking algorithm based on the criterion called, Maximum Information Minimum Redundancy (MIMR), stations of the networks in the two areas (each area is further divided into two subareas) are ranked during sliding inter-annual series and under different meteorological conditions. It is found that observation series with different starting days affect the ranking, alluding to the temporal variability during network evaluation. We propose a dynamic network evaluation framework for considering temporal variability, which ranks stations under different starting days with a fixed time window (1-year, 2-year, and 5-year). Therefore, we can identify rainfall stations which are temporarily of importance or redundancy and provide some useful suggestions for decision makers. The proposed framework can serve as a supplement for the primary MIMR optimization approach. In addition, during different periods (wet season or dry season) the optimal network from MIMR exhibits differences in entropy values and the optimal network from wet season tended to produce higher entropy values. Differences in spatial distribution of the optimal networks suggest that optimizing the rainfall network for changing meteorological conditions may be more recommended.

Uncertainty of Flood Forecasting Based on Radar Rainfall Data Assimilation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinchi Chen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Precipitation is the core data input to hydrological forecasting. The uncertainty in precipitation forecast data can lead to poor performance of predictive hydrological models. Radar-based precipitation measurement offers advantages over ground-based measurement in the quantitative estimation of temporal and spatial aspects of precipitation, but errors inherent in this method will still act to reduce the performance. Using data from White Lotus River of Hubei Province, China, five methods were used to assimilate radar rainfall data transformed from the classified Z-R relationship, and the postassimilation data were compared with precipitation measured by rain gauges. The five sets of assimilated rainfall data were then used as input to the Xinanjiang model. The effect of precipitation data input error on runoff simulation was analyzed quantitatively by disturbing the input data using the Breeding of Growing Modes method. The results of practical application demonstrated that the statistical weight integration and variational assimilation methods were superior. The corresponding performance in flood hydrograph prediction was also better using the statistical weight integration and variational methods compared to the others. It was found that the errors of radar rainfall data disturbed by the Breeding of Growing Modes had a tendency to accumulate through the hydrological model.

Probabilistic Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for the October 2015 Flooding in South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, R.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M.

2017-12-01

The potential for the intensity of extreme rainfall to increase with climate change nonstationarity has emerged as a prevailing issue for the design of engineering infrastructure, underscoring the need to better characterize the statistical assumptions underlying hydrological frequency analysis. The focus of this study is on developing probabilistic rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for the major catchments in South Carolina (SC) where the October 02-05, 2015 floods caused infrastructure damages and several lives to be lost. Continuous to discrete probability distributions including Weibull, the generalized extreme value (GEV), the Generalized Pareto (GP), the Gumbel, the Fréchet, the normal, and the log-normal functions were fitted to the short duration (i.e., 24-hr) intense rainfall. Analysis suggests that the GEV probability distribution provided the most adequate fit to rainfall records. Rainfall frequency analysis indicated return periods above 500 years for urban drainage systems with a maximum return level of approximately 2,744 years, whereas rainfall magnitude was much lower in rural catchments. Further, the return levels (i.e., 2, 20, 50,100, 500, and 1000 years) computed by Monte Carlo method were consistently higher than the NOAA design IDF curves. Given the potential increase in the magnitude of intense rainfall, current IDF curves can substantially underestimate the frequency of extremes, indicating the susceptibility of the storm drainage and flood control structures in SC that were designed under assumptions of a stationary climate.

Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

2018-03-01

Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were

Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

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Bambang Dwi Dasanto

2014-06-01

Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

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Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

2017-02-01

Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

2017-01-01

Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

Spatiotemporal Scaling Effect on Rainfall Network Design Using Entropy

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Chiang Wei

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Because of high variation in mountainous areas, rainfall data at different spatiotemporal scales may yield potential uncertainty for network design. However, few studies focus on the scaling effect on both the spatial and the temporal scale. By calculating the maximum joint entropy of hourly typhoon events, monthly, six dry and wet months and annual rainfall between 1992 and 2012 for 1-, 3-, and 5-km grids, the relocated candidate rain gauges in the National Taiwan University Experimental Forest of Central Taiwan are prioritized. The results show: (1 the network exhibits different locations for first prioritized candidate rain gauges for different spatiotemporal scales; (2 the effect of spatial scales is insignificant compared to temporal scales; and (3 a smaller number and a lower percentage of required stations (PRS reach stable joint entropy for a long duration at finer spatial scale. Prioritized candidate rain gauges provide key reference points for adjusting the network to capture more accurate information and minimize redundancy.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

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Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

2016-04-01

Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

Science.gov (United States)

Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

2015-04-01

Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

Simulation of peat accumulation: an aid in carbon cycling research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dierendonck, M.C. van

1992-01-01

Some preliminary results of a technique used to compare primary production and peat accumulation data mainly from published sources and the results of a peat accumulation simulation model are presented. Emphasis is on differences among micro-sites (hummock, lawn, hollow and pool) and among various Sphagnum species (S. fuscum, S. magellanicum, S. cuspidatum and S. balticum) associated with raised bogs. The primary production of lawns and pools were significantly greater than those of hummocks and hollows. Sphagnum balticum had the highest primary production (mean=339 g/m - 2a -1 ) Over 90 % of the primary production of Sphagnum fuscum is accumulated while for the other Sphagnum species, the value is <50 %. The data are used in a simulation model to show the influence of doubling of rainfall on primary production over a 50 year period

Assessment of gas accumulation and retention -- Tank 241-SY-101

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alleman, R.T.; Burke, T.M.; Reynolds, D.A.; Simpson, D.E.

1993-03-01

An approximate analysis has been carried out to assess and estimate the maximum quantity of gas that is likely to be accumulated within waste tank 241-SY-101, and the maximum quantity which is likely to be retained after gas release events (GRE). According to the phenomenological models used for this assessment, based on interpretation of current and recent operational data, the estimated gas generation rate in the tank is approximately 4 m 3 /day (147 ft 3 /day). About half of this gas is released as it is generated, which is (essentially) continuously. The remainder is accumulated within the slurry layer of settled solids at the bottom of the tank, and released episodically in GREs, known as ''burps,'' that are induced by unstable buoyant conditions which develop when sufficient gas accumulates in the slurry. Calculations based on gas volumes to cause neutral buoyancy in the slurry predict the following: the maximum gas accumulation (at 1 atm pressure) that can occur without triggering a GRE is in the range of 606 to 1,039 m 3 (21,400 to 36,700 ft 3 ); and the maximum gas retention immediately after a GRE is equal to the maximum accumulation minus the gas released in the GRE. GREs do not necessarily involve all of the slurry. In the largest GREs, which are assumed to involve all of the slurry, the minimum gas release (at 1 atm pressure) is calculated to be in the range of 193 to 328 m 3 (6,800 to 11,600 ft 3 ). The corresponding maximum gas retention would be 413 to 711 m 3 (14,600 to 25,100 ft 3 )

Comparing Machine Learning and Decision Making Approaches to Forecast Long Lead Monthly Rainfall: The City of Vancouver, Canada

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Zahra Zahmatkesh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Estimating maximum possible rainfall is of great value for flood prediction and protection, particularly for regions, such as Canada, where urban and fluvial floods from extreme rainfalls have been known to be a major concern. In this study, a methodology is proposed to forecast real-time rainfall (with one month lead time using different number of spatial inputs with different orders of lags. For this purpose, two types of models are used. The first one is a machine learning data driven-based model, which uses a set of hydrologic variables as inputs, and the second one is an empirical-statistical model that employs the multi-criteria decision analysis method for rainfall forecasting. The data driven model is built based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, while the developed multi-criteria decision analysis model uses Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS approach. A comprehensive set of spatially varying climate variables, including geopotential height, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, humidity, temperature and pressure with different orders of lags is collected to form input vectors for the forecast models. Then, a feature selection method is employed to identify the most appropriate predictors. Two sets of results from the developed models, i.e., maximum daily rainfall in each month (RMAX and cumulative value of rainfall for each month (RCU, are considered as the target variables for forecast purpose. The results from both modeling approaches are compared using a number of evaluation criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE. The proposed models are applied for rainfall forecasting for a coastal area in Western Canada: Vancouver, British Columbia. Results indicate although data driven models such as ANNs work well for the simulation purpose, developed TOPSIS model considerably outperforms ANNs for the rainfall forecasting. ANNs show acceptable simulation performance during the

Technical note: Space-time analysis of rainfall extremes in Italy: clues from a reconciled dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

2018-05-01

Like other Mediterranean areas, Italy is prone to the development of events with significant rainfall intensity, lasting for several hours. The main triggering mechanisms of these events are quite well known, but the aim of developing rainstorm hazard maps compatible with their actual probability of occurrence is still far from being reached. A systematic frequency analysis of these occasional highly intense events would require a complete countrywide dataset of sub-daily rainfall records, but this kind of information was still lacking for the Italian territory. In this work several sources of data are gathered, for assembling the first comprehensive and updated dataset of extreme rainfall of short duration in Italy. The resulting dataset, referred to as the Italian Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I-RED), includes the annual maximum rainfalls recorded in 1 to 24 consecutive hours from more than 4500 stations across the country, spanning the period between 1916 and 2014. A detailed description of the spatial and temporal coverage of the I-RED is presented, together with an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at providing preliminary information on the climatology of extreme rainfall at the national scale. Due to some legal restrictions, the database can be provided only under certain conditions. Taking into account the potentialities emerging from the analysis, a description of the ongoing and planned future work activities on the database is provided.

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

Partial Least Squares Regression for Determining the Control Factors for Runoff and Suspended Sediment Yield during Rainfall Events

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Nufang Fang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Multivariate statistics are commonly used to identify the factors that control the dynamics of runoff or sediment yields during hydrological processes. However, one issue with the use of conventional statistical methods to address relationships between variables and runoff or sediment yield is multicollinearity. The main objectives of this study were to apply a method for effectively identifying runoff and sediment control factors during hydrological processes and apply that method to a case study. The method combines the clustering approach and partial least squares regression (PLSR models. The case study was conducted in a mountainous watershed in the Three Gorges Area. A total of 29 flood events in three hydrological years in areas with different land uses were obtained. In total, fourteen related variables were separated from hydrographs using the classical hydrograph separation method. Twenty-nine rainfall events were classified into two rainfall regimes (heavy Rainfall Regime I and moderate Rainfall Regime II based on rainfall characteristics and K-means clustering. Four separate PLSR models were constructed to identify the main variables that control runoff and sediment yield for the two rainfall regimes. For Rainfall Regime I, the dominant first-order factors affecting the changes in sediment yield in our study were all of the four rainfall-related variables, flood peak discharge, maximum flood suspended sediment concentration, runoff, and the percentages of forest and farmland. For Rainfall Regime II, antecedent condition-related variables have more effects on both runoff and sediment yield than in Rainfall Regime I. The results suggest that the different control factors of the two rainfall regimes are determined by the rainfall characteristics and thus different runoff mechanisms.

Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

Science.gov (United States)

Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

2018-03-01

Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

2016-08-01

This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

Radar rainfall image repair techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen M. Wesson

2004-01-01

Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

Soil losses from typic cambisols and red latosol as related to three erosive rainfall patterns

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Regimeire Freitas Aquino

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors related to water erosion in the tropics. This work focused on relating soil loss from a typic dystrophic Tb Haplic Cambisol (CXbd and a typic dystrophic Red Latosol (LVdf to different patterns of natural erosive rainfall. The experimental plots of approximately 26 m² (3 x 8.67 m consisted of a CXbd area with a 0.15 m m-1 slope and a LVdf area with 0.12 m m-1 slope, both delimited by galvanized plates. Drainpipes were installed at the lower part of these plots to collect runoff, interconnected with a Geib or multislot divisor. To calculate erosivity (EI30, rainfall data, recorded continuously at a weather station in Lavras, were used. The data of erosive rainfall events were measured (10 mm precipitation intervals, accuracy 0.2 mm, 24 h period, 20 min intervals, characterized as rainfall events with more than 10 mm precipitation, maximum intensity > 24 mm h-1 within 15 min, or kinetic energy > 3.6 MJ, which were used in this study to calculate the rainfall erosivity parameter, were classified according to the moment of peak precipitation intensity in advanced, intermediate and delayed patterns. Among the 139 erosive rainfall events with CXbd soil loss, 60 % were attributed to the advanced pattern, with a loss of 415.9 Mg ha-1, and total losses of 776.0 Mg ha-1. As for the LVdf, of the 93 erosive rainfall events with soil loss, 58 % were listed in the advanced pattern, with 37.8 Mg ha-1 soil loss and 50.9 Mg ha-1 of total soil loss. The greatest soil losses were observed in the advanced rain pattern, especially for the CXbd. From the Cambisol, the soil loss per rainfall event was greatest for the advanced pattern, being influenced by the low soil permeability.

Improved estimation of heavy rainfall by weather radar after reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability

Science.gov (United States)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2015-04-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z-k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, W.

2004-05-01

A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

Comparing Approaches to Deal With Non-Gaussianity of Rainfall Data in Kriging-Based Radar-Gauge Rainfall Merging

Science.gov (United States)

Cecinati, F.; Wani, O.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

2017-11-01

Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar-rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non-Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non-Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box-Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box-Cox with time-variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box-Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box-Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross-validation. However, it is observed that Box-Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.

Transpiration Response and Growth in Pearl Millet Parental Lines and Hybrids Bred for Contrasting Rainfall Environments

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Susan Medina

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Under conditions of high vapor pressure deficit (VPD and soil drying, restricting transpiration is an important avenue to gain efficiency in water use. The question we raise in this article is whether breeding for agro-ecological environments that differ for the rainfall have selected for traits that control plant water use. These are measured in pearl millet materials bred for zones varying in rainfall (8 combinations of parent and F1-hybrids, 18 F1-hybrids and then 40 F1-hybrids. In all cases, we found an agro-ecological variation in the slope of the transpiration response to increasing VPD, and parental line variation in the transpiration response to soil drying within hybrids/parent combinations. The hybrids adapted to lower rainfall had higher transpiration response curves than those from the highest rainfall zones, but showed no variation in how transpiration responded to soil drying. The genotypes bred for lower rainfall zones showed lower leaf area, dry matter, thicker leaves, root development, and exudation, than the ones bred for high rainfall zone when grown in the low VPD environment of the greenhouse, but there was no difference in their root length neither on the root/shoot index in these genotypes. By contrast, when grown under high VPD conditions outdoors, the lower rainfall hybrids had the highest leaf, tiller, and biomass development. Finally, under soil drying the genotypes from the lower rainfall accumulated less biomass than the ones from higher rainfall zone, and so did the parental lines compared to the hybrids. These differences in the transpiration response and growth clearly showed that breeding for different agro-ecological zones also bred for different genotype strategies in relation to traits related to plant water use.Highlights:• Variation in transpiration response reflected breeding for agro-ecological zones• Different growth strategies depended on the environmental conditions• Different ideotypes reflected

Transpiration Response and Growth in Pearl Millet Parental Lines and Hybrids Bred for Contrasting Rainfall Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, Susan; Gupta, S K; Vadez, Vincent

2017-01-01

Under conditions of high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil drying, restricting transpiration is an important avenue to gain efficiency in water use. The question we raise in this article is whether breeding for agro-ecological environments that differ for the rainfall have selected for traits that control plant water use. These are measured in pearl millet materials bred for zones varying in rainfall (8 combinations of parent and F 1 -hybrids, 18 F 1 -hybrids and then 40 F 1 -hybrids). In all cases, we found an agro-ecological variation in the slope of the transpiration response to increasing VPD, and parental line variation in the transpiration response to soil drying within hybrids/parent combinations. The hybrids adapted to lower rainfall had higher transpiration response curves than those from the highest rainfall zones, but showed no variation in how transpiration responded to soil drying. The genotypes bred for lower rainfall zones showed lower leaf area, dry matter, thicker leaves, root development, and exudation, than the ones bred for high rainfall zone when grown in the low VPD environment of the greenhouse, but there was no difference in their root length neither on the root/shoot index in these genotypes. By contrast, when grown under high VPD conditions outdoors, the lower rainfall hybrids had the highest leaf, tiller, and biomass development. Finally, under soil drying the genotypes from the lower rainfall accumulated less biomass than the ones from higher rainfall zone, and so did the parental lines compared to the hybrids. These differences in the transpiration response and growth clearly showed that breeding for different agro-ecological zones also bred for different genotype strategies in relation to traits related to plant water use. Highlights : • Variation in transpiration response reflected breeding for agro-ecological zones • Different growth strategies depended on the environmental conditions • Different ideotypes reflected

Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oduro Afriyie, K.

1995-10-01

Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Numerical simulation of rainfall with assimilation of conventional and GPS observations over north of Iran

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Mohammad Ali Sharifi

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In this work, the effect of assimilation of synoptic, radiosonde and ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor (PWV data has been investigated on the short-term prediction of precipitation, vertical relative humidity and PWV fields over north of Iran. We selected two rainfall events (i.e. February 1, 2014, and September 17, 2014 caused by synoptic systems affecting the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea. These systems are often associated with a shallow and cold high pressure located over Russia that extends towards the southern Caspian Sea. The three dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system of the weather research and forecasting (WRF model is used in two rainfall cases. In each case, three numerical experiments, namely CTRL, CONVDA and GPSCONVDA, are performed. The CTRL experiment uses the global analysis as the initial and boundary conditions of the model. In the second experiment, surface and radiosonde observations are inserted into the model. Finally, the GPSCONVDA experiment uses the GPS PWV data in the assimilation process in addition to the conventional observations. It is found that in CONVDA experiment, the mean absolute error (MAE of the accumulated precipitation is reduced about 5 and 13 percent in 24h model simulation of February and September cases, respectively, when compared to CTRL. Also, the results in both cases suggest that the assimilation of GPS data has the greatest impact on model PWV simulations, with maximum root mean squares error (RMSE reduction of 0.7 mm. In the GPSCONVDA experiment, comparison of the vertical profiles of 12h simulated relative humidity with the corresponding radiosonde observations shows a slight improvement in the lower levels.

Impacts of manure application on soil environment, rainfall use efficiency and crop biomass under dryland farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaojuan; Jia, Zhikuan; Liang, Lianyou; Yang, Baoping; Ding, Ruixia; Nie, Junfeng; Wang, Junpeng

2016-02-12

Because of inadequate nutrient and water supply, soils are often unproductive in Northwest China. We studied the effects of manure application at low (LM 7.5  t ha(-1)), medium (MM 15 t ha(-1)), and high (HM 22.5 t ha(-1)) rates combined with fixed levels of chemical fertilizers on maize growth and rainfall use efficiency compared with chemical fertilizers (CK) under semi-arid conditions over a three-year period. HM and MM treatments could significantly increase soil water storage (0-120 cm) at tasseling stage of maize compared with LM treatment and CK (P < 0.05). Dry matter accumulation and rainfall use efficiency increased as manure application rate increasing (P < 0.05). HM treatment significantly increased rainfall use efficiency by 6.5-12.7% at big trumpeting - tasseling stage compared with LM and MM treatments. HM and MM treatments increased rainfall use efficiency by 8.6-18.1% at tasseling - grain filling stage compared with CK. There was no significant difference on biomass between HM and MM treatments at grain filling and maturity stages of maize in 2009 and 2010.

Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

2017-05-01

This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

Using multinomial and imprecise probability for non-parametric modelling of rainfall in Manizales (Colombia

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Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas

2008-05-01

Full Text Available This article presents a rainfall model constructed by applying non-parametric modelling and imprecise probabilities; these tools were used because there was not enough homogeneous information in the study area. The area’s hydro-logical information regarding rainfall was scarce and existing hydrological time series were not uniform. A distributed extended rainfall model was constructed from so-called probability boxes (p-boxes, multinomial probability distribu-tion and confidence intervals (a friendly algorithm was constructed for non-parametric modelling by combining the last two tools. This model confirmed the high level of uncertainty involved in local rainfall modelling. Uncertainty en-compassed the whole range (domain of probability values thereby showing the severe limitations on information, leading to the conclusion that a detailed estimation of probability would lead to significant error. Nevertheless, rele-vant information was extracted; it was estimated that maximum daily rainfall threshold (70 mm would be surpassed at least once every three years and the magnitude of uncertainty affecting hydrological parameter estimation. This paper’s conclusions may be of interest to non-parametric modellers and decisions-makers as such modelling and imprecise probability represents an alternative for hydrological variable assessment and maybe an obligatory proce-dure in the future. Its potential lies in treating scarce information and represents a robust modelling strategy for non-seasonal stochastic modelling conditions

The estimation of probable maximum precipitation: the case of Catalonia.

Science.gov (United States)

Casas, M Carmen; Rodríguez, Raül; Nieto, Raquel; Redaño, Angel

2008-12-01

A brief overview of the different techniques used to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is presented. As a particular case, the 1-day PMP over Catalonia has been calculated and mapped with a high spatial resolution. For this purpose, the annual maximum daily rainfall series from 145 pluviometric stations of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (Spanish Weather Service) in Catalonia have been analyzed. In order to obtain values of PMP, an enveloping frequency factor curve based on the actual rainfall data of stations in the region has been developed. This enveloping curve has been used to estimate 1-day PMP values of all the 145 stations. Applying the Cressman method, the spatial analysis of these values has been achieved. Monthly precipitation climatological data, obtained from the application of Geographic Information Systems techniques, have been used as the initial field for the analysis. The 1-day PMP at 1 km(2) spatial resolution over Catalonia has been objectively determined, varying from 200 to 550 mm. Structures with wavelength longer than approximately 35 km can be identified and, despite their general concordance, the obtained 1-day PMP spatial distribution shows remarkable differences compared to the annual mean precipitation arrangement over Catalonia.

Rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments: an important source of water pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, S K; Gottschall, N; Wilkes, G; Grégoire, D S; Topp, E; Pintar, K D M; Sunohara, M; Marti, R; Lapen, D R

2015-01-01

When surface water levels decline, exposed streambed sediments can be mobilized and washed into the water course when subjected to erosive rainfall. In this study, rainfall simulations were conducted over exposed sediments along stream banks at four distinct locations in an agriculturally dominated river basin with the objective of quantifying the potential for contaminant loading from these often overlooked runoff source areas. At each location, simulations were performed at three different sites. Nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment, fecal indicator bacteria, pathogenic bacteria, and microbial source tracking (MST) markers were examined in both prerainfall sediments and rainfall-induced runoff water. Runoff generation and sediment mobilization occurred quickly (10-150 s) after rainfall initiation. Temporal trends in runoff concentrations were highly variable within and between locations. Total runoff event loads were considered large for many pollutants considered. For instance, the maximum observed total phosphorus runoff load was on the order of 1.5 kg ha. Results also demonstrate that runoff from exposed sediments can be a source of pathogenic bacteria. spp. and spp. were present in runoff from one and three locations, respectively. Ruminant MST markers were also present in runoff from two locations, one of which hosted pasturing cattle with stream access. Overall, this study demonstrated that rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments can be an important source of surface water pollution. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Hydraulic properties for interrill erosion on steep slopes using a portable rainfall simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Seung Sook; Hwang, Yoonhee; Deog Park, Sang; Yun, Minu; Park, Sangyeon

2017-04-01

The hydraulic parameters for sheet flow on steep slopes have been not frequently measured because the shallow flow depth and slow flow velocity are difficult to measure. In this study hydraulic values of sheet flow were analyzed to evaluate interrill erosion on steep slopes. A portable rainfall simulator was used to conduct interrill erosion test. The kinetic energy of rainfall simulator was obtained by disdrometer being capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. The sheet flow velocity was determined by the taken time for a dye transferring fixed points using video images. Surface runoff discharge and sediment yield increased with increase of rainfall intensity and kinetic energy and slope steepness. Especially sediment yield was strongly correlated with sheet flow velocity. The maximum velocity of sheet flow was 2.3cm/s under rainfall intensity of 126.8mm/h and slope steepness of 53.2%. The sheet flow was laminar and subcritical flow as the flow Reynolds number and Froude number are respectively the ranges of 10 22 and 0.05 0.25. The roughness coefficient (Manning's n) for sheet flow on steep slopes was relatively large compared to them on the gentle slope. Keywords: Sheet flow velocity; Rainfall simulator; Interrill erosion; Steep slope This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No. 2015R1C1A2A01055469).

Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.

2002-01-01

The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Effects of rainfall patterns and land cover on the subsurface flow generation of sloping Ferralsols in southern China.

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Jian Duan

Full Text Available Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface

Simulation of peat accumulation: an aid in carbon cycling research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dierendonck, M.C. van (Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Hugo de Vries Laboratory)

1992-01-01

Some preliminary results of a technique used to compare primary production and peat accumulation data mainly from published sources and the results of a peat accumulation simulation model are presented. Emphasis is on differences among micro-sites (hummock, lawn, hollow and pool) and among various Sphagnum species (S. fuscum, S. magellanicum, S. cuspidatum and S. balticum) associated with raised bogs. The primary production of lawns and pools were significantly greater than those of hummocks and hollows. Sphagnum balticum had the highest primary production (mean=339 g/m[sup -]2a[sup -1]) Over 90 % of the primary production of Sphagnum fuscum is accumulated while for the other Sphagnum species, the value is <50 %. The data are used in a simulation model to show the influence of doubling of rainfall on primary production over a 50 year period

Precipitação esperada, em diferentes níveis de probabilidade, na região de Dourados, MS Dependable rainfall, using different levels of probability, in Dourados, MS, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Ricardo Fietz

1998-03-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar a precipitação pluviométrica esperada, em diferentes níveis de probabilidade, na região de Dourados, MS. O estudo, realizado para períodos decendiais, quinzenais e mensais, baseou-se em dados diários de precipitação de 17 anos. As séries foram ajustadas a uma distribuição mista e a aderência dos dados verificada pelo teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Os parâmetros da distribuição gama foram estimados pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. Houve ajuste dos dados para todos os períodos. Através da distribuição acumulada mista foram gerados valores de precipitação esperada para períodos de retorno de 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 12 e 17 anos. Os resultados obtidos permitem que se adotem valores criteriosos de precipitação no dimensionamento de sistemas de irrigação implantados na região de Dourados. O uso da precipitação média para este fim não é recomendado, pois pode resultar em projetos subdimensionados.The aim of this work was to determine the dependable rainfall using different levels of probability in Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. This study was conducted for intervals of 10, 15 and 30 days, based on daily data of rainfall for 17 years. Series were adjusted to a mixed distribution and a non-parametric test Kolmogorov-Smirnov was used . The parameters of gama distribution were estimated by the method maximum likelihood. Data were adjusted to all periods. Based on the accumulated mixed distribution were generated values of rainfall for periods return of 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12 and 17 years. Results allow irrigation personal to adopt criterions values of rainfall for designing irrigation projects near Dourados-MS. The average rainfall should not be used because it may result in under estimation of the rainfall.

Probable maximum flood on the Ha Ha River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damov, D.; Masse, B.

1997-01-01

Results of a probable maximum flood (PMF) study conducted for various locations along the Ha Ha river, a tributary of the Saguenay River, were discussed. The study was undertaken for use in the design and construction of new hydraulic structures for water supply for a pulp and paper facility, following the Saguenay Flood in July 1996. Many different flood scenarios were considered, including combinations of snow-melt with rainfall. Using computer simulations, it was shown that the largest flood flows were generated by summer-fall PMF. 5 refs., 12 figs

Relations Between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, Susan H.; Boldt, Eric M.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme; Staley, Dennis M.

2010-01-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are faced often with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storms themselves. Information critical to this process is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second 12-hour period. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of the postfire hydrologic response. The four-class system is based on a combination of the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions associated with debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow and flood magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) above which magnitude I events are expected are defined by A=0.3D0.6. The function A=0.5D0.6 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.0D0.5defines the rainfall conditions above which

Indonesian vegetation response to changes in rainfall seasonality over the past 25,000 years

Science.gov (United States)

Dubois, Nathalie; Oppo, Delia W.; Galy, Valier V.; Mohtadi, Mahyar; van der Kaars, Sander; Tierney, Jessica E.; Rosenthal, Yair; Eglinton, Timothy I.; Lückge, Andreas; Linsley, Braddock K.

2014-07-01

The hydrologic response to climate forcing in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region has varied spatially over the past 25,000 years. For example, drier conditions are inferred on Java and Borneo for the period following the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas wetter conditions are reconstructed for northwest Australia. The response of vegetation to these past rainfall variations is poorly constrained. Using a suite of 30 surface marine sediment samples from throughout the Indo-Pacific warm pool, we demonstrate that today the stable isotopic composition of vascular plant fatty acids (δ13CFA) reflects the regional vegetation composition. This in turn is controlled by the seasonality of rainfall consistent with dry season water stress. Applying this proxy in a sediment core from offshore northeast Borneo, we show broadly similar vegetation cover during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene, suggesting that, despite generally drier glacial conditions, there was no pronounced dry season. In contrast, δ13CFA and pollen data from a core off the coast of Sumba indicate an expansion of C4 herbs during the most recent glaciation, implying enhanced aridity and water stress during the dry season. Holocene vegetation trends are also consistent with a response to dry season water stress. We therefore conclude that vegetation in tropical monsoon regions is susceptible to increases in water stress arising from an enhanced seasonality of rainfall, as has occurred in past decades.

Analysis and stochastic modelling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship from 88 years of 10 min rainfall data in North Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Oihane; Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; López, J. Javier

2017-04-01

Frequently, when we are trying to solve certain hydrological engineering problems, it is often necessary to know rain intensity values related to a specific probability or return period, T. Based on analyses of extreme rainfall events at different time scale aggregation, we can deduce the relationships among Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF), that are widely used in hydraulic infrastructure design. However, the lack of long time series of rainfall intensities for smaller time periods, minutes or hours, leads to use mathematical expressions to characterize and extend these curves. One way to deduce them is through the development of synthetic rainfall time series generated from stochastic models, which is evaluated in this work. From recorded accumulated rainfall time series every 10 min in the pluviograph of Igueldo (San Sebastian, Spain) for the time period between 1927-2005, their homogeneity has been checked and possible statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends have also been shown. Subsequently, two models have been calibrated: Bartlett-Lewis and Markov chains models, which are based on the successions of storms, composed for a series of rainfall events, separated by a short interval of time each. Finally, synthetic ten-minute rainfall time series are generated, which allow to estimate detailed IDF curves and compare them with the estimated IDF based on the recorded data.

Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

2016-10-01

Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches

A numerical investigation of vapor intrusion--the dynamic response of contaminant vapors to rainfall events.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Rui; Pennell, Kelly G; Suuberg, Eric M

2012-10-15

The U.S. government and various agencies have published guidelines for field investigation of vapor intrusion, most of which suggest soil gas sampling as an integral part of the investigation. Contaminant soil gas data are often relatively more stable than indoor air vapor concentration measurements, but meteorological conditions might influence soil gas values. Although a few field and numerical studies have considered some temporal effects on soil gas vapor transport, a full explanation of the contaminant vapor concentration response to rainfall events is not available. This manuscript seeks to demonstrate the effects on soil vapor transport during and after different rainfall events, by applying a coupled numerical model of fluid flow and vapor transport. Both a single rainfall event and seasonal rainfall events were modeled. For the single rainfall event models, the vapor response process could be divided into three steps: namely, infiltration, water redistribution, and establishment of a water lens atop the groundwater source. In the infiltration step, rainfall intensity was found to determine the speed of the wetting front and wash-out effect on the vapor. The passage of the wetting front led to an increase of the vapor concentration in both the infiltration and water redistribution steps and this effect is noted at soil probes located 1m below the ground surface. When the mixing of groundwater with infiltrated water was not allowed, a clean water lens accumulated above the groundwater source and led to a capping effect which can reduce diffusion rates of contaminant from the source. Seasonal rainfall with short time intervals involved superposition of the individual rainfall events. This modeling results indicated that for relatively deeper soil that the infiltration wetting front could not flood, the effects were damped out in less than a month after rain; while in the long term (years), possible formation of a water lens played a larger role in determining

Persistent after-effects of heavy rain on concentrations of ice nuclei and rainfall suggest a biological cause

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Bigg, E. K.; Soubeyrand, S.; Morris, C. E.

2015-03-01

Rainfall is one of the most important aspects of climate, but the extent to which atmospheric ice nuclei (IN) influence its formation, quantity, frequency, and location is not clear. Microorganisms and other biological particles are released following rainfall and have been shown to serve as efficient IN, in turn impacting cloud and precipitation formation. Here we investigated potential long-term effects of IN on rainfall frequency and quantity. Differences in IN concentrations and rainfall after and before days of large rainfall accumulation (i.e., key days) were calculated for measurements made over the past century in southeastern and southwestern Australia. Cumulative differences in IN concentrations and daily rainfall quantity and frequency as a function of days from a key day demonstrated statistically significant increasing logarithmic trends (R2 > 0.97). Based on observations that cumulative effects of rainfall persisted for about 20 days, we calculated cumulative differences for the entire sequence of key days at each site to create a historical record of how the differences changed with time. Comparison of pre-1960 and post-1960 sequences most commonly showed smaller rainfall totals in the post-1960 sequences, particularly in regions downwind from coal-fired power stations. This led us to explore the hypothesis that the increased leaf surface populations of IN-active bacteria due to rain led to a sustained but slowly diminishing increase in atmospheric concentrations of IN that could potentially initiate or augment rainfall. This hypothesis is supported by previous research showing that leaf surface populations of the ice-nucleating bacterium Pseudomonas syringae increased by orders of magnitude after heavy rain and that microorganisms become airborne during and after rain in a forest ecosystem. At the sites studied in this work, aerosols that could have initiated rain from sources unrelated to previous rainfall events (such as power stations) would

Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Moody, John A.

2016-03-21

Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

2014-05-01

Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

Soil seal development under simulated rainfall: Structural, physical and hydrological dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Armenise, Elena; Simmons, Robert W.; Ahn, Sujung; Garbout, Amin; Doerr, Stefan H.; Mooney, Sacha J.; Sturrock, Craig J.; Ritz, Karl

2018-01-01

This study delivers new insights into rainfall-induced seal formation through a novel approach in the use of X-ray Computed Tomography (CT). Up to now seal and crust thickness have been directly quantified mainly through visual examination of sealed/crusted surfaces, and there has been no quantitative method to estimate this important property. X-ray CT images were quantitatively analysed to derive formal measures of seal and crust thickness. A factorial experiment was established in the laboratory using open-topped microcosms packed with soil. The factors investigated were soil type (three soils: silty clay loam - ZCL, sandy silt loam - SZL, sandy loam - SL) and rainfall duration (2-14 min). Surface seal formation was induced by applying artificial rainfall events, characterised by variable duration, but constant kinetic energy, intensity, and raindrop size distribution. Soil porosities derived from CT scans were used to quantify the thickness of the rainfall-induced surface seals and reveal temporal seal micro-morphological variations with increasing rainfall duration. In addition, the water repellency and infiltration dynamics of the developing seals were investigated by measuring water drop penetration time (WDPT) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (Kun). The range of seal thicknesses detected varied from 0.6 to 5.4 mm. Soil textural characteristics and OM content played a central role in the development of rainfall-induced seals, with coarser soil particles and lower OM content resulting in thicker seals. Two different trends in soil porosity vs. depth were identified: i) for SL soil porosity was lowest at the immediate soil surface, it then increased constantly with depth till the median porosity of undisturbed soil was equalled; ii) for ZCL and SL the highest reduction in porosity, as compared to the median porosity of undisturbed soil, was observed in a well-defined zone of maximum porosity reduction c. 0.24-0.48 mm below the soil surface. This

Using rainfall simulations to understand the relationship between precipitation, soil crust and infiltration in four agricultural soils

Science.gov (United States)

Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Alastrué, Juan; Moret-Fernández, David; Beguería, Santiago; López, Mariví; Navas, Ana

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out in order to study soil crust formation and its relation with soil infiltration parameters—sorptivity (S) and hydraulic conductivity (K)—on four common agricultural soils with contrasted properties; namely, Cambisol, Gypsisol, Solonchak, and Solonetz. Three different rainfall simulations, replicated three times each of them, were performed over the soils. Prior to rainfall simulations all soils were mechanically tilled with a rototiller to create similar soil surface conditions and homogeneous soils. Rainfall simulation parameters were monitored in real time by a Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor, allowing a complete characterization of simulated rainfall microphysics (drop size and velocity distributions) and integrated variables (accumulated rainfall, intensity and kinetic energy). Once soils dried after the simulations, soil penetration resistance was measured and soil hydraulic parameters, S and K, were estimated using the disc infiltrometry technique. There was little variation in rainfall parameters among simulations. Mean intensity and mean median diameter (D50) varied in simulations 1 ( 0.5 bar), 2 ( 0.8 bar) and 3 ( 1.2 bar) from 26.5 mm h-1 and 0.43 mm (s1) to 40.5 mm h-1 and 0.54 mm (s2) and 41.1 mm h-1 and 0.56 mm for (s3), respectively. Crust formation by soil was explained by D50 and subsequently by the total precipitation amount and the percentage of silt and clay in soil, being Cambisol and Gypsisol the soils that showed more increase in penetration resistance by simulation. All soils showed similar S values by simulations which were explained by rainfall intensity. Different patterns of K were shown by the four soils, which were explained by the combined effect of D50 and intensity, together with soil physico-chemical properties. This study highlights the importance of monitoring all precipitation parameters to determine their effect on different soil processes.

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roriz Luciano Machado

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

Estimation of Surface Runoff in the Jucar River Basin from Rainfall Data and SMOS Soil Moisture

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Gonzalez Robles, Maura; Herrera Daza, Eddy; Khodayar, Samiro; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto

2013-04-01

Surface runoff is the water that flows after soil is infiltrated to full capacity and excess water from rain, meltwater, or other sources flows over the land. When the soil is saturated and the depression storage filled, and rain continues to fall, the rainfall will immediately produce surface runoff. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is widely used for determining the approximate direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event in a particular area. The advantage of the method is its simplicity and widespread inclusion in existing computer models. It was originally developed by the US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, and documented in detail in the National Engineering Handbook, Sect. 4: Hydrology (NEH-4) (USDA-SCS, 1985). Although the SCS-CN method was originally developed in the United States and mainly for the evaluation of storm runoff in small agricultural watersheds, it soon evolved well beyond its original objective and was adopted for various land uses and became an integral part of more complex, long-term, simulation models. The basic assumption of the SCS-CN method is that, for a single storm, the ratio of actual soil retention after runoff begins to potential maximum retention is equal to the ratio of direct runoff to available rainfall. This relationship, after algebraic manipulation and inclusion of simplifying assumptions, results in the following equation given in USDA-SCS (1985): (P--0,2S)2 Q = (P + 0,8S) where Q is the average runoff (mm), P the effective precipitation (mm) and S is potential maximum retention (mm) after the rainfall event. The study has been applied to the Jucar River Basin area, East of Spain. A selection of recent significant rainfall events has been made corresponding to the periods around 22nd November, 2011 and 28-29 September and 10 October, 2012, from Jucar River Basin Authority rain gauge data. Potential maximum retention values for each point have been assumed as the first

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, T.G.

1996-01-01

The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

Diatom. A potential bio-accumulator of gold

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, N.; Pal, R.; Ramaswami, A.; Nayak, D.; Lahiri, S.

2006-01-01

The bioaccumulation of gold in trace concentration by Nitzschia obtusa and Navicula minima, two members of bacillariophyceae, has been studied. It has been observed that Nitzschia obtusa showed better accumulation of gold in acidic pH in comparison to neutral and basic pH. Maximum accumulation was observed with 1 mg x kg -1 or less gold concentration. However, the accumulation by the living cells was reduced when the matrix concentration was higher. Navicula minima, on the other hand, found to be a better accumulator of gold in wide ranges of pH and substrate concentration of the media. It was also inferred that the gold accumulation by diatom was mainly due to adsorption by biosilica (siliceous frustules of dead diatom cells). Accumulated gold was recovered with conc. HNO 3 . (author)

Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

2009-04-01

Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

Self-Organized Criticality of Rainfall in Central China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiliang Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Rainfall is a complexity dynamics process. In this paper, our objective is to find the evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC for rain datasets in China by employing the theory and method of SOC. For this reason, we analyzed the long-term rain records of five meteorological stations in Henan, a central province of China. Three concepts, that is, rain duration, drought duration, accumulated rain amount, are proposed to characterize these rain events processes. We investigate their dynamics property by using scale invariant and found that the long-term rain processes in central China indeed exhibit the feature of self-organized criticality. The proposed theory and method may be suitable to analyze other datasets from different climate zones in China.

Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

2015-05-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

2017-12-01

Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity

Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

Science.gov (United States)

Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

2017-05-01

Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

Tea shoot production in relation to rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature in Pagilaran tea estate, Batang

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yudono, P.

2000-01-01

Tea shoot production pattern in PT Pagilaran tea estate, Batang, is studied in relation to rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature. Pagilaran tea estate is located at 700-1,500 m above the sea level, with temperature of 15-30 deg. C and rainfall ranging from 4,500 mm to 7,000 mm per year. However, the area is also characterized by two up to three dry months for every three years. Monthly data of rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature were collected and were related to tea shoot production using correlation and regression analysis. The results indicated that there was no significant different pattern of tea shoot production form the three estate units (Kayulandak, Pagilaran, and Andongsili). Monthly shoots production increases during October up to December, and then goes down in January up to February. It fluctuated at a lesser degree in the upper units (Kayulandak and Andongsili) which might be attributed to better soil moisture available in the area. They are right below a forests area which understandably serves as rainfall catchment area and maintains soil moisture of the area below in a better condition. Weak to moderate correlation was obtained when monthly tea shoot production was correlated to amount of rainfall (r = -0.3771), days of rainfall (r = -0.3512), maximum temperature (r = -0.3502), minimum temperature (r = -0.2786), and solar radiation (r=0.6607) of the same month. On regressing monthly tea shoot production to those variables, rainfall and duration of solar radiation turned out to be the two significant factors through the following equation y = 759.5616-0.1802 xi-1 + 0.1057 xi-2 + 0.5239 zi-1 (R at the power of 2 = 0.3398), where y = tea shoots production, x=amount of monthly rainfall, z=duration of solar radiation, and i refer to month [in

Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buishand, T.A.

1977-01-01

Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

A Numerical Investigation of Vapor Intrusion — the Dynamic Response of Contaminant Vapors to Rainfall Events

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Rui; Pennell, Kelly G.; Suuberg, Eric M.

2013-01-01

The U.S. government and various agencies have published guidelines for field investigation of vapor intrusion, most of which suggest soil gas sampling as an integral part of the investigation. Contaminant soil gas data are often relatively more stable than indoor air vapor concentration measurements, but meteorological conditions might influence soil gas values. Although a few field and numerical studies have considered some temporal effects on soil gas vapor transport, a full explanation of the contaminant vapor concentration response to rainfall events is not available. This manuscript seeks to demonstrate the effects on soil vapor transport during and after different rainfall events, by applying a coupled numerical model of fluid flow and vapor transport. Both a single rainfall event and seasonal rainfall events were modeled. For the single rainfall event models, the vapor response process could be divided into three steps: namely, infiltration, water redistribution, and establishment of a water lens atop the groundwater source. In the infiltration step, rainfall intensity was found to determine the speed of the wetting front and wash-out effect on the vapor. The passage of the wetting front led to an increase of the vapor concentration in both the infiltration and water redistribution steps and this effect is noted at soil probes located 1 m below the ground surface. When the mixing of groundwater with infiltrated water was not allowed, a clean water lens accumulated above the groundwater source and led to a capping effect which can reduce diffusion rates of contaminant from the source. Seasonal rainfall with short time intervals involved superposition of the individual rainfall events. This modeling results indicated that for relatively deeper soil that the infiltration wetting front could not flood, the effects were damped out in less than a month after rain; while in the long term (years), possible formation of a water lens played a larger role in

Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nana Zhao

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

Rainfall Stochastic models

Science.gov (United States)

Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

2012-04-01

This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

2014-01-01

that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

Science.gov (United States)

Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

2015-04-01

Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

Performances of the snow accumulation melting model SAMM: results in the Northern Apennines test area

Science.gov (United States)

Lagomarsino, Daniela; Martelloni, Gianluca; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo; Fanti, Riccardo

2013-04-01

In this work we propose a snow accumulation-melting model (SAMM) to forecast the snowpack height and we compare the results with a simple temperature index model and an improved version of the latter.For this purpose we used rainfall, temperature and snowpack thickness 5-years data series from 7 weather stations in the Northern Apennines (Emilia Romagna Region, Italy). SAMM is based on two modules modelling the snow accumulation and the snowmelt processes. Each module is composed by two equations: a mass conservation equation is solved to model snowpack thickness and an empirical equation is used for the snow density. The processes linked to the accumulation/depletion of the snowpack (e.g. compression of the snowpack due to newly fallen snow and effects of rainfall) are modelled identifying limiting and inhibitory factors according to a kinetic approach. The model depends on 13 empirical parameters, whose optimal values were defined with an optimization algorithm (simplex flexible) using calibration measures of snowpack thickness. From an operational point of view, SAMM uses as input data only temperature and rainfall measurements, bringing the additional advantage of a relatively easy implementation. In order to verify the improvement of SAMM with respect to a temperature-index model, the latter was applied considering, for the amount of snow melt, the following equation: M = fm(T-T0), where M is hourly melt, fm is the melting factor and T0 is a threshold temperature. In this case the calculation of the depth of the snowpack requires the use of 3 parameters: fm, T0 and ?0 (the mean density of the snowpack). We also performed a simulation by replacing the SAMM melting module with the above equation and leaving unchanged the accumulation module: in this way we obtained a model with 9 parameters. The simulations results suggest that any further extension of the simple temperature index model brings some improvements with a consequent decrease of the mean error

Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

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Mingguo Zheng

Full Text Available Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10, EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.

Statistical Determination of Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Indices for Single Storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan

2015-01-01

Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng’s tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I 30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I 30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I 20, EI 10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I 10), EI 20 and EI 30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I 30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations. PMID

Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

2016-04-01

Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to

Relations between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow- and Flood-Event Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, Susan; Collins, Larry; Boldt, Eric; Staley, Dennis

2010-05-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are often faced with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storm events themselves. We here provide information critical to this process for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 am and 4 pm, along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storm events from recently burned areas in southern California was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of postfire hydrologic events. The three-class system is based on differences between the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions that may lead to debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow- and flood-event magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) below which Magnitude I events are expected, and above which Magnitude II events may occur, are defined by A=0.4D0.55. The function A=0.6D0.50 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a Magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a Magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.1D0

Variability of rainfall over small areas

Science.gov (United States)

Runnels, R. C.

1983-01-01

A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

2017-08-01

Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

Leaching of indaziflam applied at two rates under different rainfall situations in Florida Candler soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Jhala, Amit J; Ramirez, Analiza H M; Singh, Megh

2012-03-01

Indaziflam {N-[(1R, 2S)-2,3-dihydro-2,6-dimethyl-1H-inden-1-yl]-6-[(1RS)-1fluoroethyl]-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine} is a new pre-emergence herbicide recently registered for a broad spectrum weed control in Florida citrus. Experiments were conducted to evaluate leaching of indaziflam applied at 73 and 145 g ai ha(-1) in Florida Candler soil under simulated rainfall of 5, 10, and 15 cm ha(-1). Indaziflam leached the least (12.6 ± 0.6 cm) when applied at 73 g ai ha(-1) under 5 cm ha(-1) rainfall. Indaziflam leached furthest (30.2 ± 0.9 cm) when applied at 145 g ai ha(-1) under 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall. The visual control ratings of a bio-indicator species ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) was 97% at 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall when indaziflam applied at 145 g ai ha(-1) in the 26 to 30 cm horizon indicating the maximum movement and activity of indaziflam. A dose response experiment was conducted to determine the sensitivity of ryegrass to various doses of indaziflam that confirmed that application of indaziflam at 29.20 g ai ha(-1) was sufficient to prevent germination of ryegrass. There was no mortality of ryegrass plants beyond the 30 cm and the biomass of ryegrass was comparable with untreated control indicating that indaziflam did not leach beyond this distance even under 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall.

Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

2013-04-01

Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed

Regionalised spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature models for flood studies in the Basque Country, Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Cowpertwait

2013-02-01

Full Text Available A spatiotemporal point process model of rainfall is fitted to data taken from three homogeneous regions in the Basque Country, Spain. The model is the superposition of two spatiotemporal Neyman–Scott processes, in which rain cells are modelled as discs with radii that follow exponential distributions. In addition, the model includes a parameter for the radius of storm discs, so that rain only occurs when both a cell and a storm disc overlap a point. The model is fitted to data for each month, taken from each of the three homogeneous regions, using a modified method of moments procedure that ensures a smooth seasonal variation in the parameter estimates.

Daily temperature data from 23 sites are used to fit a stochastic temperature model. A principal component analysis of the maximum daily temperatures across the sites indicates that 92% of the variance is explained by the first component, implying that this component can be used to account for spatial variation. A harmonic equation with autoregressive error terms is fitted to the first principal component. The temperature model is obtained by regressing the maximum daily temperature on the first principal component, an indicator variable for the region, and altitude. This, together with scaling and a regression model of temperature range, enables hourly temperatures to be predicted. Rainfall is included as an explanatory variable but has only a marginal influence when predicting temperatures.

A distributed model (TETIS; Francés et al., 2007 is calibrated for a selected catchment. Five hundred years of data are simulated using the rainfall and temperature models and used as input to the calibrated TETIS model to obtain simulated discharges to compare with observed discharges. Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests indicate that there is no significant difference in the distributions of observed and simulated maximum flows at the same sites, thus supporting the use of the spatiotemporal

Design and Performance of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Super NiCd Batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Anisa J.; Rao, Gopalakrishna M.; Jallice, Doris E.; Moran Vickie E.

1999-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint mission between NASA and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan. The observatory is designed to monitor and study tropical rainfall and the associated release of energy that helps to power the global atmospheric circulation shaping both weather and climate around the globe. The spacecraft was launched from Japan on November 27,1997 via the NASDA H-2 launch vehicle. The TRMM Power Subsystem is a Peak Power Tracking system that can support the maximum TRMM load of 815 watts at the end of its three year life. The Power Subsystem consists of two 50 Ampere Hour Super NiCd batteries, Gallium Arsenide Solar Array and the Power System Electronics. This paper describes the TRMM Power Subsystem, battery design, cell and battery ground test performance, and in-orbit battery operations and performance.

Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

Science.gov (United States)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Convective-stratiform rainfall separation of Typhoon Fitow (2013: A 3D WRF modeling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiyan Xu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Surface precipitation budget equation in a three-dimensional (3D WRF model framework is derived. By applying the convective-stratiform partition method to the surface precipitation budget equation in the 3D model, this study separated convective and stratiform rainfall of typhoon Fitow (2013. The separations are further verified by examining statistics of vertical velocity, surface precipitation budget, and cloud microphysical budget. Results show that water vapor convergence moistens local atmosphere and offsets hydrometeor divergence, and producing convective rainfall, while hydrometeor convergence primarily supports stratiform rainfall, since water vapor divergence and local atmospheric drying generally cancelled out. Mean ascending motions are prevailing in the entire troposphere in the convective region, whereas mean descending motions occur below 5 km and mean ascending motions occur above in the stratiform region. The frequency distribution of vertical velocity shows vertical velocity has wide distribution with the maximum values up to 13 m s-1 in the convective regions, whereas it has narrow distribution with absolute values confined within 7 m s-1 in the stratiform region. Liquid cloud microphysics is dominant in convective regions and ice cloud microphysics is dominant in stratiform regions. These indicate that the statistics results are generally consistent with the corresponding physical characteristics of the convective-stratiform rainfall structures generalized by previous studies.

Analytical solutions to sampling effects in drop size distribution measurements during stationary rainfall: Estimation of bulk rainfall variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Porrà, J.M.; Sempere Torres, D.; Creutin, J.D.

2006-01-01

A stochastic model of the microstructure of rainfall is used to derive explicit expressions for the magnitude of the sampling fluctuations in rainfall properties estimated from raindrop size measurements in stationary rainfall. The model is a marked point process, in which the points represent the

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jury, Mark R.

2018-05-01

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

A global dataset of sub-daily rainfall indices

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Blenkinsop, S.; Guerreiro, S.; Li, X.; Barbero, R.; Chan, S.; Lenderink, G.; Westra, S.

2017-12-01

It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. A new global sub-daily precipitation dataset has been constructed (data collection is ongoing). Metadata for each station has been calculated, detailing record lengths, missing data, station locations. A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community.

Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

Studies on bio-accumulation of 51Cr by Piper Nigrum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Kalpita; Nayak, Dalia; Lahiri, Susanta

2007-01-01

The present study is performed to accumulate 51 Cr(III) and 51 Cr(VI) using the alkaloid piperine, derived from the fruits of Piper nigrum (Family Piperaceae) as well as by the fruit commonly known as black pepper by radiometric technique. The pH dependence and the effect of concentration of chromium on the accumulation have also been examined. The maximum accumulation (52%) of Cr(III) is found by black pepper at pH 4 whereas piperine shows slight accumulation at this condition. Accumulation of Cr(VI) by black pepper is negligible. (author)

Deployment and Performance of an X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhao Shi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available An X-band dual-polarization radar (XPRAD was deployed in Guangdong province as part of the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX during the storm season in 2016. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of XPRAD observations during SCMREX with emphasis on data processing and rainfall products. The differential phase-based attenuation correction and radar calibration using self-consistency of dual-polarization observables are presented. It is found that the standard deviation of the Z d r bias is less than 0.2 dB based on ‘light rain at low angle’ and ‘dry aggregate snow’ observations. Cross-comparison with two standard S-band China New Generation Weather Radars (CINRAD shows that the bias of Z h has a mean value less than 1.5 dBZ and a standard deviation less than 0.5 dBZ. In addition, fifteen rainfall events that occurred during the intensive observing period (IOP are analyzed to demonstrate the rainfall estimation performance of XPRAD. In particular, rainfall accumulations at 1-, 2- and 3-h scales derived using R( K d p and R( Z h , Z d r relations are evaluated using national level rain gauge data and CINRAD-based rainfall estimation. The results show that both R( K d p - and R( Z h , Z d r -based products agree well with the rain gauge observations and CINRAD estimation. The difference between R ( K d p and R ( Z h , Z d r is not significant, although R ( K d p shows slightly better performance than R ( Z h , Z d r .

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

2015-01-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

Set-up and calibration of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator for soil erosion studies

Science.gov (United States)

Lassu, T.; Seeger, M.

2012-04-01

flow rates (4,5 l/min and 5,5 l/min), resulting in different rainfall intensities and made 2 repetitions each. The average rainfall intensity was 36,8 mm/h at the first and 37,6 mm/h at the second repetition with the lower flow rate (4,5 l/min). With the higher flow rate (5,5 l/min) at the first repetition it was 44,4 mm/h and 46 mm/h at the second one. The maximum and minimum values were 22 mm and 2 mm at the lower (4,5 l/min) flow rate, respectively 26 mm and 4 mm at the higher one (5,5 l/min). In this latter case, the resulting average kinetic energy reached 7 J m-2 mm-1, with a maximum 31,3 J m-2 mm-1 of and a minimum of 2,9 J m-2 mm-1. The Christiansen Uniformity coefficient (CU) for the lower intensities was 66% and 69%, respectively, with the higher intensities slightly better (70% and 72%). The data of the rainfall simulator in Wageningen make it a promising tool for research in soil erosion processes.

Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

2010-01-01

Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

2010-09-01

One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall

Capital accumulation and embodied technological progress

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grass, D.; Hartl, R.F.; Kort, P.M.

This paper combines technology adoption with capital accumulation taking into account technological progress. We model this as a multi-stage optimal control problem and solve it using the corresponding maximum principle. The model with linear revenue can be solved analytically, while the model with

Evolution of rainfall in the Sahel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diallo, M.A.

1995-09-01

In this note, a number of main meteorological stations has been chosen to analyse the rainfall during the last 30 years in the Sahel (1961 to 1990). Reliable climatological data have been used for this study. The concerned area is limited by the 200 mm isohyet in the north and 600 mm isohyet in the south in the Sahel countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad). The evolution of rainfall has pointed out some similar and significant aspects for all stations studied. Established criteria have been used to characterize the annual rainfall and to determine the years with good rainfall and years of drought in the Sahel. (author). 6 refs, 3 figs

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

Science.gov (United States)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

A method for combining passive microwave and infrared rainfall observations

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Kummerow, Christian; Giglio, Louis

1995-01-01

Because passive microwave instruments are confined to polar-orbiting satellites, rainfall estimates must interpolate across long time periods, during which no measurements are available. In this paper the authors discuss a technique that allows one to partially overcome the sampling limitations by using frequent infrared observations from geosynchronous platforms. To accomplish this, the technique compares all coincident microwave and infrared observations. From each coincident pair, the infrared temperature threshold is selected that corresponds to an area equal to the raining area observed in the microwave image. The mean conditional rainfall rate as determined from the microwave image is then assigned to pixels in the infrared image that are colder than the selected threshold. The calibration is also applied to a fixed threshold of 235 K for comparison with established infrared techniques. Once a calibration is determined, it is applied to all infrared images. Monthly accumulations for both methods are then obtained by summing rainfall from all available infrared images. Two examples are used to evaluate the performance of the technique. The first consists of a one-month period (February 1988) over Darwin, Australia, where good validation data are available from radar and rain gauges. For this case it was found that the technique approximately doubled the rain inferred by the microwave method alone and produced exceptional agreement with the validation data. The second example involved comparisons with atoll rain gauges in the western Pacific for June 1989. Results here are overshadowed by the fact that the hourly infrared estimates from established techniques, by themselves, produced very good correlations with the rain gauges. The calibration technique was not able to improve upon these results.

Validation and evaluation of epistemic uncertainty in rainfall thresholds for regional scale landslide forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Iovine, Giulio; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Vennari, Carmela; Guzzetti, Fausto

2015-04-01

Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the analysis of past rainfall events that have (or have not) resulted in slope failures. Accurate prediction requires reliable thresholds, which need to be validated before their use in operational landslide warning systems. Despite the clear relevance of validation, only a few studies have addressed the problem, and have proposed and tested robust validation procedures. We propose a validation procedure that allows for the definition of optimal thresholds for early warning purposes. The validation is based on contingency table, skill scores, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. To establish the optimal threshold, which maximizes the correct landslide predictions and minimizes the incorrect predictions, we propose an index that results from the linear combination of three weighted skill scores. Selection of the optimal threshold depends on the scope and the operational characteristics of the early warning system. The choice is made by selecting appropriately the weights, and by searching for the optimal (maximum) value of the index. We discuss weakness in the validation procedure caused by the inherent lack of information (epistemic uncertainty) on landslide occurrence typical of large study areas. When working at the regional scale, landslides may have occurred and may have not been reported. This results in biases and variations in the contingencies and the skill scores. We introduce two parameters to represent the unknown proportion of rainfall events (above and below the threshold) for which landslides occurred and went unreported. We show that even a very small underestimation in the number of landslides can result in a significant decrease in the performance of a threshold measured by the skill scores. We show that the variations in the skill scores are different for different uncertainty of events above or below the threshold. This

The development rainfall forecasting using kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Zulfi, Mohammad; Hasan, Moh.; Dwidja Purnomo, Kosala

2018-04-01

Rainfall forecasting is very interesting for agricultural planing. Rainfall information is useful to make decisions about the plan planting certain commodities. In this studies, the rainfall forecasting by ARIMA and Kalman Filter method. Kalman Filter method is used to declare a time series model of which is shown in the form of linear state space to determine the future forecast. This method used a recursive solution to minimize error. The rainfall data in this research clustered by K-means clustering. Implementation of Kalman Filter method is for modelling and forecasting rainfall in each cluster. We used ARIMA (p,d,q) to construct a state space for KalmanFilter model. So, we have four group of the data and one model in each group. In conclusions, Kalman Filter method is better than ARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in each group. It can be showed from error of Kalman Filter method that smaller than error of ARIMA model.

Hydrologic and Erosional Response to Natural Rainfall and Effects of Conservation and Rehabilitation Measures in a Degraded Dry Sub-Humid Watershed of the Ethiopian Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

McHugh, O. V.; Liu, B. M.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2005-12-01

A good understanding of runoff and erosion under actual field conditions is essential for effective planning of land conservation in the Ethiopian highlands. Hydrologic and sediment yield response to natural rainfall was measured during 3 rainy seasons (2003-2004) at plot and catchment scales with and without conservation practices. Results show that as expected surface runoff generation and erosion rates are significantly influenced by rainfall intensity, land use, scale of measurement, land slope, and the presence or not of conservation measures. Seasonal runoff coefficient and sediment yield were significantly better correlated to number of storms with high 30-minute maximum rainfall intensity (I30 > 20 mm h-1) than to total seasonal rainfall depth. Under conventional management systems cropland on slopes greater than 3 % generated significantly more (over twice) surface runoff and sediment yield compared with shrub and open forest grazing land on steep slopes (34 %). Plot measured surface runoff coefficients (for crop and grazing land uses which cover over 90 % of the catchment area) exceeded total catchment streamflow discharge demonstrating a scale effect. The observed scale effect, a stronger correlation of runoff with maximum rainfall intensity than rainfall depth and average rainfall intensity, and observed significant increases in runoff with steeper land slopes indicate that Hortonian overland flow is the primary runoff generation mechanism in the study zone. Concerning slope effects, cropland on mild slopes produced relatively low seasonal sediment yields (hillside conservation (areas with bench terracing, planted tree seedlings, and small area closure from livestock grazing) resulted in significantly lower catchment peak streamflow discharge and longer duration streamflow compared to a catchment in the same watershed without these measures. Cropland tied ridge and no till conservation practices reduced surface runoff and soil loss during seasons with

A 507-year rainfall and runoff reconstruction for the Monsoonal North West, Australia derived from remote paleoclimate archives

Science.gov (United States)

Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Hancock, Gregory R.; Lowry, John B.

2017-11-01

The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond.

Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

2010-05-01

Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

Impacts of different rainfall patterns on hyporheic zone under transient conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Suning; Chui, Ting Fong May

2018-06-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) plays an important role in stream ecology. Previous studies have mainly focused on the factors influencing the HZ in the steady state. However, the exchange between surface water and groundwater in the HZ can become transient during a storm. This study investigates the impacts of different rainfall patterns (varying in intensity and duration) on the HZ under transient conditions. A two-dimensional numerical model of a 10-m long and 2-m deep domain is developed, in which the streambed consists of a series of dunes. Brinkman-Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations are respectively solved for groundwater and surface water, and velocity and pressure are coupled at the interface (i.e., the streambed surface). To compare the results under different transient conditions, this study proposes two indicators, i.e., the influential time (IT, the time required for the HZ to return to its initial state once it starts to change) and the influential depth (ID, the maximum increment in the HZ depth). To detect the extent to which the HZ undergoes significant spatial changes, moving split-window and inflection point tests are conducted. The results indicate that rainfall intensity (RI) and rainfall duration (RD) both display logarithmic relationships with the IT and ID with high coefficients of determination, but only between certain lower and upper thresholds of the RI and RD. Moreover, the distributions of the IT and ID as a function of the RI and RD are mapped using the surface spline and kriging interpolation methods to facilitate future prediction of the IT and ID. In addition, it is observed that the IT has a linear negative correlation with the groundwater response while the ID is not affected by different groundwater responses. All of the derived relationships can be used to predict the impacts of a future rainfall event on the HZ.

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

2015-04-01

Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM rainfall products from December 1997 to November 2001

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.

2002-01-01

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2001. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DE 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs. west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in strtaiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. P. Burt

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

2018-03-01

Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

Analysis and simulation of mesoscale convective systems accompanying heavy rainfall: The goyang case

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Hyun-Young; Ha, Ji-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

2011-05-01

We investigated a torrential rainfall case with a daily rainfall amount of 379 mm and a maximum hourly rain rate of 77.5 mm that took place on 12 July 2006 at Goyang in the middlewestern part of the Korean Peninsula. The heavy rainfall was responsible for flash flooding and was highly localized. High-resolution Doppler radar data from 5 radar sites located over central Korea were analyzed. Numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were also performed to complement the high-resolution observations and to further investigate the thermodynamic structure and development of the convective system. The grid nudging method using the Global Final (FNL) Analyses data was applied to the coarse model domain (30 km) in order to provide a more realistic and desirable initial and boundary conditions for the nested model domains (10 km, 3.3 km). The mesoscale convective system (MCS) which caused flash flooding was initiated by the strong low level jet (LLJ) at the frontal region of high equivalent potential temperature (θe) near the west coast over the Yellow Sea. The ascending of the warm and moist air was induced dynamically by the LLJ. The convective cells were triggered by small thermal perturbations and abruptly developed by the warm θe inflow. Within the MCS, several convective cells responsible for the rainfall peak at Goyang simultaneously developed with neighboring cells and interacted with each other. Moist absolutely unstable layers (MAULs) were seen at the lower troposphere with the very moist environment adding the instability for the development of the MCS.

SOME GEOMORPHOLOGICAL AND GEOECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF THE 2010 EXTREME RAINFALLS IN HUNGARY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DÉNES LÓCZY

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Some geomorphological and geoecological impacts of the 2010 extreme rainfalls in Hungary. The extreme rainfall events in the unusually wet year of 2010 brought about major changes in the floodplains of several streams in Hungary. On the small watercourses in low mountain or hill environments flash floods were generated. In the floodplains of medium-sized rivers, like the Kapos River in Southern Transdanubia, lasting inundations transformed the landscape. The system of wetlands preceeding the 19th-century river regulation and land drainage measures was restored by natural processes and within a very short time as excess water filled the entire broad valley sections in a shallow layer temporarily, for some weeks, and the former oxbows for several months. The nature conservation value of the river valley increased: reed and sedge beds and the brooding colonies of aquatic birds extended. There are, however, unfavorable impacts as well. Denser wetland vegetation significantly contributes to the organic filling of floodplain landforms. The spreading of invasive plants (allergetic ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, in the first place was promoted by the prolonged survival of extensive bare but moist silt surfaces in the floodplain. The long-term effects of this colonization on floodplain communities are unpredictable. A delayed and indirect impact of extreme rainfalls was the breach of a red sludge reservoir near the Ajka alumina plant in October, 2010 and the resulting environmental disaster. After the gradual accumulation of rainwater in the reservoir, the dyke breach happened, released 600-700 thousand m3 of basic (up to pH 13! sludge over the floodplain of the Torna Stream, a tributary of the Marcal and Rába rivers in an area of ca 40 km2. The emergency mitigation measures (spreading gypsum from power plants to neutralize the strong base over the layer of red sludge accumulation proved unfortunate as it prevented that the sludge should be washed

Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadiq, N.

2015-01-01

Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

2017-01-01

Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

Extreme rainfall events in karst environments: the case study of September 2014 in the Gargano area (southern Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Trabace, Maria; Marchesini, Ivan; Peruccacci, Silvia; Rossi, Mauro; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Parise, Mario; Brunetti, Maria Teresa

2015-04-01

In the first week of September 2014, the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, SE Italy) was hit by an extreme rainfall event that caused several landslides, floods and sinkholes. As a consequence of the floods, two people lost their lives and severe socio-economic damages were reported. The highest peaks of rainfall were recorded between September 3rd and 6th at the Cagnano Varano and San Marco in Lamis rain gauges with a maximum daily rainfall (over 230 mm) that is about 30% the mean annual rainfall. The Gargano Promontory is characterized by complex orographic conditions, with the highest elevation of about 1000 m a.s.l. The geological setting consists of different types of carbonate deposits affected by intensive development of karst processes. The morphological and climatic settings of the area, associated with frequent extreme rainfall events can cause various types of geohazards (e.g., landslides, floods, sinkholes). A further element enhancing the natural predisposition of the area to the occurrence of landslides, floods and sinkholes is an intense human activity, characterized by an inappropriate land use and management. In order to obtain consistent and reliable data on the effects produced by the storm, a systematic collection of information through field observations, a critical analysis of newspaper articles and web-news, and a co-operation with the Regional Civil Protection and local geologists started immediately after the event. The information collected has been organized in a database including the location, the occurrence time and the type of geohazard documented with photographs. The September 2014 extreme rainfall event in the Gargano Promontory was also analyzed to validate the forecasts issued by the Italian national early-warning system for rainfall-induced landslides (SANF), developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Italian national Department for Civil Protection (DPC). SANF compares rainfall measurements and

Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.

2017-09-01

In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

Distribution of phytoplankton groups within the deep chlorophyll maximum

KAUST Repository

Latasa, Mikel; Cabello, Ana Marí a; Moran, Xose Anxelu G.; Massana, Ramon; Scharek, Renate

2016-01-01

and optical and FISH microscopy. All groups presented minimum abundances at the surface and a maximum in the DCM layer. The cell distribution was not vertically symmetrical around the DCM peak and cells tended to accumulate in the upper part of the DCM layer

Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

2017-03-01

In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

Rainfall timing and runoff: The influence of the criterion for rain event separation

OpenAIRE

Molina-Sanchis, Isabel; Lázaro, Roberto; Arnau-Rosalén, Eva; Calvo-Cases, Adolfo

2016-01-01

Rain is not uniform in time and space in semiarid areas and its distribution is very important for the runoff process. Hydrological studies usually divide rainfall into events. However, defining rain events is complicated, and rain characteristics vary depending on how the events are delimited. Choosing a minimum inter-event time (MIT) is a commonly used criterion. Our hypothesis is that there will be an optimal MIT that explains the maximum part of the variance of the runoff, with time to ru...

Using high resolution aridity and drainage position data to better predict rainfall-runoff relationships in complex upland topography

Science.gov (United States)

Metzen, D.; Sheridan, G. J.; Benyon, R. G.; Lane, P. N. J.

2015-12-01

In topographically complex terrain, the interaction of aspect-dependent solar exposure and drainage-position-dependent flow accumulation results in energy and water partitioning that is highly spatially variable. Catchment scale rainfall-runoff relationships are dependent on these smaller scale spatial patterns. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how to represent this smaller scale variability within lumped parameter, catchment scale rainfall-runoff models. In this study we aim to measure and represent the key interactions between aridity and drainage position in complex terrain to inform the development of simple catchment-scale hydrologic model parameters. Six measurement plots were setup on opposing slopes in an east-west facing eucalypt forest headwater catchment. The field sites are spanning three drainage positions with two contrasting aridity indices each, while minimizing variations in other factors, e.g. geology and weather patterns. Sapflow, soil water content (SWC) and throughfall were continuously monitored on two convergent hillslopes with similar size (1.3 and 1.6ha) but contrasting aspects (north and south). Soil depth varied from 0.6m at the topslope to >2m at the bottomslope positions. Maximum tree heights ranged from 16.2m to 36.9m on the equator-facing slope and from 30.1m to 45.5m on the pole-facing slope, with height decreasing upslope on both aspects. Two evapotranspiration (ET) patterns emerged in relation to aridity and drainage position. On the equator-facing slope (AI~ 2.1), seasonal understorey and overstorey ET patterns were in sync, whereas on the pole-facing slope (AI~1.5) understorey ET showed larger seasonal fluctuations than overstorey ET. Seasonal ET patterns and competition between soil evaporation and root water uptake lead to distinct differences in profile SWC across the sites, likely caused by depletion from different depths. Topsoil water content on equator-facing slopes was generally lower and responded

Leaching variations of heavy metals in chelator-assisted phytoextraction by Zea mays L. exposed to acid rainfall.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yayin; Luo, Dinggui; Liu, Lirong; Tan, Zicong; Lai, An; Liu, Guowei; Li, Junhui; Long, Jianyou; Huang, Xuexia; Chen, Yongheng

2017-11-01

Chelant-enhanced phytoextraction method has been put forward as an effective soil remediation method, whereas the heavy metal leaching could not be ignored. In this study, a cropping-leaching experiment, using soil columns, was applied to study the metal leaching variations during assisted phytoextraction of Cd- and Pb-polluted soils, using seedlings of Zea mays, applying three different chelators (EDTA, EDDS, and rhamnolipid), and artificial rainfall (acid rainfall or normal rainfall). It showed that artificial rainfall, especially artificial acid rain, after chelator application led to the increase of heavy metals in the leaching solution. EDTA increased both Cd and Pb concentrations in the leaching solution, obviously, whereas EDDS and rhamnolipid increased Cd concentration but not Pb. The amount of Cd and Pb decreased as the leaching solution increased, the patterns as well matched LRMs (linear regression models), with R-square (R 2 ) higher than 90 and 82% for Cd and Pb, respectively. The maximum cumulative Cd and Pb in the leaching solutions were 18.44 and 16.68%, respectively, which was amended by EDTA and acid rainwater (pH 4.5), and followed by EDDS (pH 4.5), EDDS (pH 6.5), rhamnolipid (0.5 g kg -1 soil, pH 4.5), and rhamnolipid (pH 6.5).

Periods of high intensity rainfall and the safety of the Angra dos Reis nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolli, D.

1993-01-01

The high precipitation rates aggravate the consequences of hypothetical accidental releases of radioactive material from the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), as determined by probabilistic risk assessment. A 30-year rainfall series was analysed, aiming at calculating the probability of occurring a given amount q of precipitation during a certain period of n days. The nine highest precipitation amounts have also been determined. The results show there was a rainier climate in the '50 s and '60 s than in the '70 s and '80 s. The risk of catastrophic landslide has been enhanced as an environmental impact of the construction of the Rio-Santos highway and NPP which have not yet gone through an abnormal rainfall period. It has been suggested that criteria should be established to reduce the nuclear power and shut down the reactor when the precipitation accumulates to a dangerous limit. (author)

The role of non-rainfall water on physiological activation in desert biological soil crusts

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Jiaoli; Peng, Chengrong; Li, Hua; Li, Shuangshuang; Huang, Shun; Hu, Yao; Zhang, Jinli; Li, Dunhai

2018-01-01

Non-rainfall water (NRW, e.g. fog and dew), in addition to rainfall and snowfall, are considered important water inputs to drylands. At the same time, biological soil crusts (BSCs) are important components of drylands. However, little information is available regarding the effect of NRW inputs on BSC activation. In this study, the effects of NRW on physiological activation in three BSC successional stages, including the cyanobacteria crust stage (Crust-C), moss colonization stage (Crust-CM), and moss crust stage (Crust-M), were studied in situ. Results suggest NRW inputs hydrated and activated physiological activity (Fv/Fm, carbon exchange, and nitrogen fixation) in BSCs but led to a negative carbon balance and low rates of nitrogen fixation in BSCs. One effective NRW event could hydrate BSCs for 7 h. Following simulated rainfall, the physiological activities recovered within 3 h, and net carbon gain occurred until 3 h after hydration, whereas NRW-induced physiological recovery processes were slower and exhibited lower activities, leading to a negative carbon balance. There were significant positive correlations between NRW amounts and the recovered values of Fv/Fm in all the three BSC stages (p < .001). The thresholds for Fv/Fm activation decreased with BSC succession, and the annual effective NRW events increased with BSC succession, with values of 29.8, 89.2, and 110.7 in Crust-C, Crust-CM and Crust-M, respectively. The results suggest that moss crust and moss-cyanobacteria crust use NRW to prolong metabolic activity and reduce drought stress more efficiently than cyanobacteria crusts. Therefore, these results suggest that BSCs utilize NRW to sustain life while growth and biomass accumulation require precipitation (rainfall) events over a certain threshold.

Impact of atmospheric circulation types on southwest Asian dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Houssos, E. E.; Solmon, F.; Legrand, M.; Rashki, A.; Dumka, U. C.; Francois, P.; Gautam, R.; Singh, R. P.

2018-03-01

This study examines the meteorological feedback on dust aerosols and rainfall over the Arabian Sea and India during the summer monsoon using satellite data, re-analysis and a regional climate model. Based on days with excess aerosol loading over the central Ganges basin during May - September, two distinct atmospheric circulation types (weather clusters) are identified, which are associated with different dust-aerosol and rainfall distributions over south Asia, highlighting the role of meteorology on dust emissions and monsoon rainfall. Each cluster is characterized by different patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields at 1000 hPa and at 700 hPa, thus modulating changes in dust-aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea. One cluster is associated with deepening of the Indian/Pakistan thermal low leading to (i) increased cyclonicity and thermal convection over northwestern India and Arabian Peninsula, (ii) intensification of the southwest monsoon off the Horn of Africa, iii) increase in dust emissions from Rub-Al-Khali and Somalian deserts, (iv) excess dust accumulation over the Arabian Sea and, (v) strengthening of the convergence of humid air masses and larger precipitation over Indian landmass compared to the other cluster. The RegCM4.4 model simulations for dust-aerosol and precipitation distributions support the meteorological fields and satellite observations, while the precipitation over India is positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea on daily basis for both weather clusters. This study highlights the key role of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics on dust life cycle and rainfall over the monsoon-influenced south Asia.

Spatial Distribution of Annual and Monthly Rainfall Erosivity in the Jaguarí River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas Machado Pontes

2017-11-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The Jaguarí River Basin forms the main water supply sources for the São Paulo Metropolitan Region and other cities in the state. Since the kinetic energy of rainfall is the driving force of water erosion, the main cause of land and water degradation, we tested the hypothesis of correlation between the erosive potential of rainfall (erosivity and geographical coordinates and altitude for the purpose of predicting the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall erosivity index (EI30 in the basin. An equation was used to estimate the (EI30 in accordance with the average monthly and total annual rainfall at rainfall stations with data available for the study area. In the regression kriging technique, the deterministic part was modeled using multiple linear regression between the dependent variable (EI30 and environmental predictor variables: latitude, longitude, and altitude. From the result of equations and the maps generated, a direct correlation between erosivity and altitude could be observed. Erosivity has a markedly seasonal behavior in accordance with the rainy season from October to March. This season concentrates 86 % of the estimated EI30 values, with monthly maximum values of up to 2,342 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 month-1 between December and January, and minimum of 34 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 month-1 in August. The highest values were found in the Mantiqueira Range region (annual average of up to 12,000 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, a region that should be prioritized in soil and water conservation efforts. From this validation, good precision and accuracy of the model was observed for the long period of the annual average, which is the main factor used in soil loss prediction models.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall Events in the South of France Using EURO-CORDEX Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Luu, L. N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.

2017-12-01

The Mediterranean region regularly undergoes episodes of intense precipitation in the fall season that exceed 300mm a day. This study focuses on the role of climate change on the dynamics of the events that occur in the South of France. We used an ensemble of 10 EURO-CORDEX model simulations with two horizontal resolutions (EUR-11: 0.11° and EUR-44: 0.44°) for the attribution of extreme rainfall in the fall in the Cevennes mountain range (South of France). The biases of the simulations were corrected with simple scaling adjustment and a quantile correction (CDFt). This produces five datasets including EUR-44 and EUR-11 with and without scaling adjustment and CDFt-EUR-11, on which we test the impact of resolution and bias correction on the extremes. Those datasets, after pooling all of models together, are fitted by a stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution for several periods to estimate a climate change signal in the tail of distribution of extreme rainfall in the Cévenne region. Those changes are then interpreted by a scaling model that links extreme rainfall with mean and maximum daily temperature. The results show that higher-resolution simulations with bias adjustment provide a robust and confident increase of intensity and likelihood of occurrence of autumn extreme rainfall in the area in current climate in comparison with historical climate. The probability (exceedance probability) of 1-in-1000-year event in historical climate may increase by a factor of 1.8 under current climate with a confident interval of 0.4 to 5.3 following the CDFt bias-adjusted EUR-11. The change of magnitude appears to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relation that indicates a 7% increase in rainfall per 1oC increase in temperature.

Climatology and Spatio-Temporal Variability of Wintertime Total and Extreme Rainfall in Thailand during 1970-2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Atsamon Limsakul

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This study aims at examining wintertime (December-January-February; DJF climatology and spatio-temporal variability of Thailand’s total and extreme rainfall during 1970-2012. Analysis showed that the area along the Gulf of Thailand’s eastern coast not only received much amount of rainfall but also underwent great extremes and variances during the northeast monsoon (NEM winters. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis similarly revealed that the leading mode of each DJF total or extreme rainfall index was marked by maximum loadings concentrated at the stations located at the exposed area of the NEM flow. Correlation analysis indicated that the leading EOF mode of DJF total and extreme indices in Thailand tended to be higher (lower than normal during strong (weak East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM. On longer timescales, the recent decadal change observed in the leading EOF mode of all rainfall indices has been coincident with re-amplification of the EAWM taken place since the early/mid 2000. The leading EOF mode of DJF total and extreme rainfall indices in Thailand also exhibited strong correlations with the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. It was characterized as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO/El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO-related boomerang-shaped spatial patterns, resembling the typical mature phases of the La Niña event and the PDO cool epoch. Based on our analysis, it is reasonable to believe that the anomalies of the NEM and other key EAWM-related circulations are likely to be the possible causes of DJF total and extreme rainfall variations in Thailand. In addition, the ENSO and PDO as the primary global atmospheric external forcing are likely to exert their influence on wintertime Thailand’s climate via modulating the EAWM/NEM-related circulations anomalies.

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

Commercial application of rainfall simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Loch, Rob J.

2010-05-01

Landloch Pty Ltd is a commercial consulting firm, providing advice on a range of land management issues to the mining and construction industries in Australia. As part of the company's day-to-day operations, rainfall simulation is used to assess material erodibility and to investigate a range of site attributes. (Landloch does carry out research projects, though such are not its core business.) When treated as an everyday working tool, several aspects of rainfall simulation practice are distinctively modified. Firstly, the equipment used is regularly maintained, and regularly upgraded with a primary focus on ease, safety, and efficiency of use and on reliability of function. As well, trained and experienced technical support is considered essential. Landloch's chief technician has over 10 years experience in running rainfall simulators at locations across Australia and in Africa and the Pacific. Secondly, the specific experimental conditions established for each set of rainfall simulator runs are carefully considered to ensure that they accurately represent the field conditions to which the data will be subsequently applied. Considerations here include: • wetting and drying cycles to ensure material consolidation and/or cementation if appropriate; • careful attention to water quality if dealing with clay soils or with amendments such as gypsum; • strong focus on ensuring that the erosion processes considered are those of greatest importance to the field situation of concern; and • detailed description of both material and plot properties, to increase the potential for data to be applicable to a wider range of projects and investigations. Other important company procedures include: • For each project, the scientist or engineer responsible for analysing and reporting rainfall simulator data is present during the running of all field plots, as it is essential that they be aware of any specific conditions that may have developed when the plots were subjected

Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering t...

The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

2015-11-01

We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

SPACE/TIME ANALYSIS OF FECAL POLLUTION AND RAINFALL IN AN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ESTUARY

OpenAIRE

Coulliette, Angela D.; Money, Eric S.; Serre, Marc L.; Noble, Rachel T.

2009-01-01

The Newport River Estuary (NPRE) is a high priority shellfish harvesting area in eastern North Carolina (NC) that is impaired due to fecal contamination, specifically exceeding recommended levels for fecal coliforms. A hydrologic-driven mean trend model was developed, as a function of antecedent rainfall, in the NPRE to predict levels of E. coli (EC, measured as a proxy for fecal coliforms). This mean trend model was integrated in a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework to produce informat...

Evaluation of GPM IMERG Early, Late, and Final rainfall estimates using WegenerNet gauge data in southeastern Austria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. O

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG products provide quasi-global (60° N–60° S precipitation estimates, beginning March 2014, from the combined use of passive microwave (PMW and infrared (IR satellites comprising the GPM constellation. The IMERG products are available in the form of near-real-time data, i.e., IMERG Early and Late, and in the form of post-real-time research data, i.e., IMERG Final, after monthly rain gauge analysis is received and taken into account. In this study, IMERG version 3 Early, Late, and Final (IMERG-E,IMERG-L, and IMERG-F half-hourly rainfall estimates are compared with gauge-based gridded rainfall data from the WegenerNet Feldbach region (WEGN high-density climate station network in southeastern Austria. The comparison is conducted over two IMERG 0.1°  ×  0.1° grid cells, entirely covered by 40 and 39 WEGN stations each, using data from the extended summer season (April–October for the first two years of the GPM mission. The entire data are divided into two rainfall intensity ranges (low and high and two seasons (warm and hot, and we evaluate the performance of IMERG, using both statistical and graphical methods. Results show that IMERG-F rainfall estimates are in the best overall agreement with the WEGN data, followed by IMERG-L and IMERG-E estimates, particularly for the hot season. We also illustrate, through rainfall event cases, how insufficient PMW sources and errors in motion vectors can lead to wide discrepancies in the IMERG estimates. Finally, by applying the method of Villarini and Krajewski (2007, we find that IMERG-F half-hourly rainfall estimates can be regarded as a 25 min gauge accumulation, with an offset of +40 min relative to its nominal time.

Evaluation of GPM IMERG Early, Late, and Final rainfall estimates using WegenerNet gauge data in southeastern Austria

Science.gov (United States)

O, Sungmin; Foelsche, Ulrich; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Fuchsberger, Juergen; Tan, Jackson; Petersen, Walter A.

2017-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products provide quasi-global (60° N-60° S) precipitation estimates, beginning March 2014, from the combined use of passive microwave (PMW) and infrared (IR) satellites comprising the GPM constellation. The IMERG products are available in the form of near-real-time data, i.e., IMERG Early and Late, and in the form of post-real-time research data, i.e., IMERG Final, after monthly rain gauge analysis is received and taken into account. In this study, IMERG version 3 Early, Late, and Final (IMERG-E,IMERG-L, and IMERG-F) half-hourly rainfall estimates are compared with gauge-based gridded rainfall data from the WegenerNet Feldbach region (WEGN) high-density climate station network in southeastern Austria. The comparison is conducted over two IMERG 0.1° × 0.1° grid cells, entirely covered by 40 and 39 WEGN stations each, using data from the extended summer season (April-October) for the first two years of the GPM mission. The entire data are divided into two rainfall intensity ranges (low and high) and two seasons (warm and hot), and we evaluate the performance of IMERG, using both statistical and graphical methods. Results show that IMERG-F rainfall estimates are in the best overall agreement with the WEGN data, followed by IMERG-L and IMERG-E estimates, particularly for the hot season. We also illustrate, through rainfall event cases, how insufficient PMW sources and errors in motion vectors can lead to wide discrepancies in the IMERG estimates. Finally, by applying the method of Villarini and Krajewski (2007), we find that IMERG-F half-hourly rainfall estimates can be regarded as a 25 min gauge accumulation, with an offset of +40 min relative to its nominal time.

Induced Plant Accumulation of Lithium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurence Kavanagh

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Lithium’s (Li value has grown exponentially since the development of Li-ion batteries. It is usually accessed in one of two ways: hard rock mineral mining or extraction from mineral-rich brines. Both methods are expensive and require a rich source of Li. This paper examines the potential of agro-mining as an environmentally friendly, economically viable process for extracting Li from low grade ore. Agro-mining exploits an ability found in few plant species, to accumulate substantial amounts of metals in the above ground parts of the plant. Phyto-mined metals are then retrieved from the incinerated plants. Although the actual amount of metal collected from a crop may be low, the process has been shown to be profitable. We have investigated the suitability of several plant species including: Brassica napus and Helianthus annuus, as Li-accumulators under controlled conditions. Large plant trials were carried out with/without chelating agents to encourage Li accumulation. The question we sought to answer was, can any of the plant species investigated accumulate Li at levels high enough to justify using them to agro-mine Li. Results show maximum accumulated levels of >4000 mg/kg Li in some species. Our data suggests that agro-mining of Li is a potentially viable process.

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukabutera, Assumpta; Thomson, Dana; Murray, Megan; Basinga, Paulin; Nyirazinyoye, Laetitia; Atwood, Sidney; Savage, Kevin P; Ngirimana, Aimable; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

2016-08-05

Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff) but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2009-02-09

Feb 9, 2009 ... the lowest number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days. The highest 24-h ... With regard to seasonal rainfall, the 1995/96 summer rainfall season had ..... The Gauteng Province is approximately 16 500 km2 in size. When the ...

Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Sreekanth, T. S.

Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

Hydrological Effects of Historic Rainfall on the Waccamaw River

Science.gov (United States)

Jolly, J.; Bao, S.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the overall water budget of the Waccamaw River during and after a historic rainfall event related to Hurricane Joaquin, producing a 1000-year rainfall event. While rainfall is the only input, it enters the basin through various means. Some rainwater enters the soil as soil moisture while rainfall also goes underground and enters the river channels from underground, which is defined as bucket in. Over time, the rainfall was removed from the river site through various natural processes. Those processes, including evaporation, soil storage as soil moisture, discharge runoff through the river channel, among others, were modeled and validated against the USGS gauge stations. The validated model results were then used to estimate the hydrological response of the Waccamaw River to the rainfall event and determine the overall water budget. The experiment was completed using a WRF-Hydro modeling system for the purposes of weather forecasting and meteorological analysis. Upon completion of the data analysis, the WRF-Hydro model result showed that large amounts of rainfall were variously dispersed through the aforementioned areas. It was determined that after entering the soil rainfall predominantly left the river basin by discharge, while evaporation accounted for the second most common destination of rainfall. Base flow also accounted for a destination of rainfall, though not as much as those previously mentioned.

Space/time analysis of fecal pollution and rainfall in an eastern North Carolina estuary.

Science.gov (United States)

Coulliette, Angela D; Money, Eric S; Serre, Marc L; Noble, Rachel T

2009-05-15

The Newport River Estuary (NPRE) is a high-priority shellfish harvesting area in eastern North Carolina that is impaired due to fecal contamination, specifically exceeding recommended levels for fecal coliforms. A hydrologic-driven mean trend model was developed, as a function of antecedent rainfall, in the NPRE to predict levels of Escherichia coli (EC, measured as a proxyforfecal coliforms). This mean trend model was integrated in a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework to produce informative space/time (S/T) maps depicting fecal contamination across the NPRE during winter and summer months. These maps showed that during dry winter months, corretponding to the oyster harvesting season in North Carolina (October 1-March 30), predicted EC concentrations were below the shellfish harvesting standard (14 MPN/100 mL). However, after substantial rainfall of 3.81 cm (1.5 in.), the NPRE did not appear to mee this requirement. Warmer months resulted in the predicted EC concentrations exceeding the threshold for the NPRE. Predicted ENT concentrations were generally below the recreational water quality threshold (104 MPN/100 mL), except for warmer months after substantial rainfall. Once established, this combined approach produces near real-time visual information on which to base water quality management decisions.

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

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Cheng-Chin Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot hit southern Taiwan in 2009, bringing 48-hr of heavy rainfall [close to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP] to the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. This extreme rainfall event resulted from the combined (co-movement effect of two climate systems (i.e., typhoon and southwesterly air flow. Based on the traditional PMP estimation method (i.e., the storm transposition method, STM, two PMP estimation approaches, i.e., Amplification Index (AI and Independent System (IS approaches, which consider the combined effect are proposed in this work. The AI approach assumes that the southwesterly air flow precipitation in a typhoon event could reach its maximum value. The IS approach assumes that the typhoon and southwesterly air flow are independent weather systems. Based on these assumptions, calculation procedures for the two approaches were constructed for a case study on the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. The results show that the PMP estimates for 6- to 60-hr durations using the two approaches are approximately 30% larger than the PMP estimates using the traditional STM without considering the combined effect. This work is a pioneer PMP estimation method that considers the combined effect of a typhoon and southwesterly air flow. Further studies on this issue are essential and encouraged.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

Rainfall interception of three trees in Oakland, California

Science.gov (United States)

Qingfu Xiao; E. Gregory McPherson

2011-01-01

A rainfall interception study was conducted in Oakland, California to determine the partitioning of rainfall and the chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, and stemflow. Rainfall interception measurements were conducted on a gingko (Ginkgo biloba) (13.5 m tall deciduous tree), sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) (8...

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.

2003-01-01

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America ) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model. Review of other latent heating algorithms will be discussed in the workshop.

The effects of acid rainfall and heavy metal particulates on a boreal forest ecosystem near the Sudbury smelting region of Canada

Science.gov (United States)

T. C. Hutchinson

1976-01-01

Sulphur dioxide emissions have occurred on a gigantic scale at Sudbury from nickel-copper smelters. Soil erosion has followed the destruction of large areas of forest. Rainfall has been found highly acidic, frequently less than pH 3.0 in 1971. Metal accumulation in the soils (to distances of 50 km) have occurred for nickel and copper. The combination of heavy metal...

Spatial distribution of the daily rainfall concentration index in Argentina: comparison with other countries

Science.gov (United States)

Llano, María Paula

2017-08-01

The precipitation is a meteorological variable studied in Argentina mainly in annual, seasonal and monthly scales. Its variability is a significant climate element and also a critical socioeconomic factor. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of daily rainfall in Argentina. Daily records of precipitation for 66 stations provided by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional are used (period 1991-2014). The spatial distribution of the annual precipitation presents an east-west gradient in the north of the country. In monthly scale, there are different precipitation distributions such as a double maximum in the centre-east zone or a single maximum in the northwest in summer time and in the southern Andes range during the winter. To carry out the study, the concentration index (CI) of daily precipitation with a resolution of 1 mm is used. Precipitation in Argentina, given its vast territory, presents a great variability with a wide range of rainfall regimes; CI values are found between 0.54 and 0.68. These values are categorized as high (greater than 0.61) and low (less than 0.58). The north of the country and the Atlantic coast show the highest CI values. The lower values are present in the Andes range and in the south of the country. The results are compared with other studies in the world.

Satellite and gauge rainfall merging using geographically weighted regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Hu

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A residual-based rainfall merging scheme using geographically weighted regression (GWR has been proposed. This method is capable of simultaneously blending various satellite rainfall data with gauge measurements and could describe the non-stationary influences of geographical and terrain factors on rainfall spatial distribution. Using this new method, an experimental study on merging daily rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing dataset (CMOROH and gauge measurements was conducted for the Ganjiang River basin, in Southeast China. We investigated the capability of the merging scheme for daily rainfall estimation under different gauge density. Results showed that under the condition of sparse gauge density the merging rainfall scheme is remarkably superior to the interpolation using just gauge data.

Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Schemes for Rainfall Data and Application in Hydrological Modeling

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Tao Chen

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The spatial distribution of precipitation is an important aspect of water-related research. The use of different interpolation schemes in the same catchment may cause large differences and deviations from the actual spatial distribution of rainfall. Our study analyzes different methods of spatial rainfall interpolation at annual, daily, and hourly time scales to provide a comprehensive evaluation. An improved regression-based scheme is proposed using principal component regression with residual correction (PCRR and is compared with inverse distance weighting (IDW and multiple linear regression (MLR interpolation methods. In this study, the meso-scale catchment of the Fuhe River in southeastern China was selected as a typical region. Furthermore, a hydrological model HEC-HMS was used to calculate streamflow and to evaluate the impact of rainfall interpolation methods on the results of the hydrological model. Results show that the PCRR method performed better than the other methods tested in the study and can effectively eliminate the interpolation anomalies caused by terrain differences between observation points and surrounding areas. Simulated streamflow showed different characteristics based on the mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. The results simulated by PCRR exhibited the lowest streamflow error and highest correlation with measured values at the daily time scale. The application of the PCRR method is found to be promising because it considers multicollinearity among variables.

Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) can cause widespread damage and disruption. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide distributed information about atmospheric conditions, such as precipitation, that can lead to a flooding event. Short duration, high intensity rainfall events are generally poorly predicted by NWP models, because of the high spatiotemporal resolution required and because of the way the convective rainfall is described in the model. The resolution of NWP models is ever increasing. Better understanding of complex hydrological processes and the effect of scale is important in order to improve the prediction of magnitude and duration of such events, in the context of disaster management. Working as part of the NERC SINATRA project, we evaluated how the Land Surface Model (LSM) components of NWP models cope with high intensity rainfall input and subsequent infiltration problems. Both in terms of the amount of water infiltrated in the soil store, as well as the timing and the amount of surface and subsurface runoff generated. The models investigated are SWAP (Soil Water Air Plant, Alterra, the Netherlands, van Dam 1997), JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator a component of Unified Model in UK Met Office, Best et al. 2011) and CHTESSEL (Carbon and Hydrology- Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, Balsamo et al. 2009) We analysed the numerical aspects arising from discontinuities (or sharp gradients) in forcing and/or the model solution. These types of infiltration configurations were tested in the laboratory (Vachaud 1971), for some there are semi-analytical solutions (Philip 1957, Parlange 1972, Vanderborght 2005) or reference numerical solutions (Haverkamp 1977, van Dam 2000, Vanderborght 2005). The maximum infiltration by the surface, Imax, is in general dependent on atmospheric conditions, surface type, soil type, soil moisture content θ, and surface orographic factor σ. The models used differ in their approach to

Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Vessia, G.; Parise, M.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Rossi, M.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

2014-04-01

Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assumpta Mukabutera

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. Methods We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Results Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Conclusion Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

Strategy for introduction of rainwater management facility considering rainfall event applied on new apartment complex

Science.gov (United States)

KIM, H.; Lee, D. K.; Yoo, S.

2014-12-01

As regional torrential rains become frequent due to climate change, urban flooding happens very often. That is why it is necessary to prepare for integrated measures against a wide range of rainfall. This study proposes introduction of effective rainwater management facilities to maximize the rainwater runoff reductions and recover natural water circulation for unpredictable extreme rainfall in apartment complex scale. The study site is new apartment complex in Hanam located in east of Seoul, Korea. It has an area of 7.28ha and is analysed using the EPA-SWMM and STORM model. First, it is analyzed that green infrastructure(GI) had efficiency of flood reduction at the various rainfall events and soil characteristics, and then the most effective value of variables are derived. In case of rainfall event, Last 10 years data of 15 minutes were used for analysis. A comparison between A(686mm rainfall during 22days) and B(661mm/4days) knew that soil infiltration of A is 17.08% and B is 5.48% of the rainfall. Reduction of runoff after introduction of the GI of A is 24.76% and B is 6.56%. These results mean that GI is effective to small rainfall intensity, and artificial rainwater retarding reservoir is needed at extreme rainfall. Second, set of target year is conducted for the recovery of hydrological cycle at the predevelopment. And an amount of infiltration, evaporation, surface runoff of the target year and now is analysed on the basis of land coverage, and an arrangement of LID facilities. Third, rainwater management scenarios are established and simulated by the SWMM-LID. Rainwater management facilities include GI(green roof, porous pavement, vegetative swale, ecological pond, and raingarden), and artificial rainwater. Design scenarios are categorized five type: 1)no GI, 2)conventional GI design(current design), 3)intensive GI design, 4)GI design+rainwater retarding reservoir 5)maximized rainwater retarding reservoir. Intensive GI design is to have attribute value to

Simulation of an extreme heavy rainfall event over Chennai, India using WRF: Sensitivity to grid resolution and boundary layer physics

KAUST Repository

Srinivas, C.V.

2018-05-04

In this study, the heavy precipitation event on 01 December 2015 over Chennai located on the southeast coast of India was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. A series of simulations were conducted using explicit convection and varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. The model results were compared with available surface, satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations. Simulations indicate strong, sustained moist convection associated with development of a mesoscale upper air cyclonic circulation, during the passage of a synoptic scale low-pressure trough caused heavy rainfall over Chennai and its surroundings. Results suggest that veering of wind with height associated with strong wind shear in the layer 800–400 hPa together with dry air advection facilitated development of instability and initiation of convection. The 1-km domain using explicit convection improved the prediction of rainfall intensity of about 450 mm and its distribution. The PBL physics strongly influenced the rainfall prediction by changing the location of upper air circulation, energy transport, moisture convergence and intensity of convection in the schemes YSU, MYJ and MYNN. All the simulations underestimated the first spell of the heavy rainfall. While YSU and MYJ schemes grossly underestimated the rainfall and dislocated the area of maximum rainfall, the higher order MYNN scheme simulated the rainfall pattern in better agreement with observations. The MYNN showed lesser mixing and simulated more humid boundary layer, higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) and stronger winds at mid-troposphere than did the other schemes. The MYNN also realistically simulated the location of upper air cyclonic flow and various dynamic and thermodynamic features. Consequently it simulated stronger moisture convergence and higher precipitation.

Simulation of an extreme heavy rainfall event over Chennai, India using WRF: Sensitivity to grid resolution and boundary layer physics

KAUST Repository

Srinivas, C.V.; Yesubabu, V.; Hari Prasad, D.; Hari Prasad, K.B.R.R.; Greeshma, M.M.; Baskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.

2018-01-01

In this study, the heavy precipitation event on 01 December 2015 over Chennai located on the southeast coast of India was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. A series of simulations were conducted using explicit convection and varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. The model results were compared with available surface, satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations. Simulations indicate strong, sustained moist convection associated with development of a mesoscale upper air cyclonic circulation, during the passage of a synoptic scale low-pressure trough caused heavy rainfall over Chennai and its surroundings. Results suggest that veering of wind with height associated with strong wind shear in the layer 800–400 hPa together with dry air advection facilitated development of instability and initiation of convection. The 1-km domain using explicit convection improved the prediction of rainfall intensity of about 450 mm and its distribution. The PBL physics strongly influenced the rainfall prediction by changing the location of upper air circulation, energy transport, moisture convergence and intensity of convection in the schemes YSU, MYJ and MYNN. All the simulations underestimated the first spell of the heavy rainfall. While YSU and MYJ schemes grossly underestimated the rainfall and dislocated the area of maximum rainfall, the higher order MYNN scheme simulated the rainfall pattern in better agreement with observations. The MYNN showed lesser mixing and simulated more humid boundary layer, higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) and stronger winds at mid-troposphere than did the other schemes. The MYNN also realistically simulated the location of upper air cyclonic flow and various dynamic and thermodynamic features. Consequently it simulated stronger moisture convergence and higher precipitation.

A Poisson Cluster Stochastic Rainfall Generator That Accounts for the Interannual Variability of Rainfall Statistics: Validation at Various Geographic Locations across the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongkyun Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A novel approach for a Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator was validated in its ability to reproduce important rainfall and watershed response characteristics at 104 locations in the United States. The suggested novel approach, The Hybrid Model (THM, as compared to the traditional Poisson cluster rainfall modeling approaches, has an additional capability to account for the interannual variability of rainfall statistics. THM and a traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall model (modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model were compared in their ability to reproduce the characteristics of extreme rainfall and watershed response variables such as runoff and peak flow. The results of the comparison indicate that THM generally outperforms the traditional approach in reproducing the distributions of peak rainfall, peak flow, and runoff volume. In addition, THM significantly outperformed the traditional approach in reproducing extreme rainfall by 2.3% to 66% and extreme flow values by 32% to 71%.

Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo

2013-04-01

Recently, the necessity for rainfall estimation and forecasting using the radar is being highlighted, due to the frequent occurrence of torrential rainfall resulting from abnormal changes of weather. Radar rainfall data represents temporal and spatial distributions properly and replace the existing rain gauge networks. It is also frequently applied in many hydrologic field researches. However, the radar rainfall data has an accuracy limitation since it estimates rainfall, by monitoring clouds and precipitation particles formed around the surface of the earth(1.5-3km above the surface) or the atmosphere. In a condition like Korea where nearly 70% of the land is covered by mountainous areas, there are lots of restrictions to use rainfall radar, because of the occurrence of beam blocking areas by topography. This study is aiming at analyzing runoff and examining the applicability of (R(Z), R(ZDR) and R(KDP)) provided by the Han River Flood Control Office(HRFCO) based on the basin elevation of Nakdong river watershed. For this purpose, the amount of radar rainfall of each rainfall event was estimated according to three sub-basins of Nakdong river watershed with the average basin elevation above 400m which are Namgang dam, Andong dam and Hapcheon dam and also another three sub-basins with the average basin elevation below 150m which are Waegwan, Changryeong and Goryeong. After runoff analysis using a distribution model, Vflo model, the results were reviewed and compared with the observed runoff. This study estimated the rainfall by using the radar-rainfall transform formulas, (R(Z), R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) for four stormwater events and compared the results with the point rainfall of the rain gauge. As the result, it was overestimated or underestimated, depending on rainfall events. Also, calculation indicates that the values from R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) relatively showed the most similar results. Moreover the runoff analysis using the estimated radar rainfall is

Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Wood

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

2016-04-01

Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

Rainfall reliability, drought and flood vulnerability in Botswana ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...

Temporal and spatial variations of rainfall erosivity in Southern Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ming-Hsi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan; Chu, Chun-Kuang

2014-05-01

Soil erosion models are essential in developing effective soil and water resource conservation strategies. Soil erosion is generally evaluated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with an appropriate regional scale description. Among factors in the USLE model, the rainfall erosivity index (R) provides one of the clearest indications of the effects of climate change. Accurate estimation of rainfall erosivity requires continuous rainfall data; however, such data rarely demonstrate good spatial and temporal coverage. The data set consisted of 9240 storm events for the period 1993 to 2011, monitored by 27 rainfall stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in southern Taiwan, was used to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution map was plotted based on rainfall erosivity by the Kriging interpolation method. Results indicated that rainfall erosivity is mainly concentrated in rainy season from June to November typically contributed 90% of the yearly R factor. The temporal variations of monthly rainfall erosivity during June to November and annual rainfall erosivity have increasing trend from 1993 to 2011. There is an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in southern Taiwan. The results further indicated that there is a higher relationship between elevation and rainfall erosivity. The method developed in this study may also be useful for sediment disasters on Climate Change.

Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2018-01-01

In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

Temporal characteristics of rainfall events under three climate types in Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Dolšak, Domen; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

2016-10-01

Temporal rainfall distribution can often have significant influence on other hydrological processes such as runoff generation or rainfall interception. High-frequency rainfall data from 30 stations in Slovenia were analysed in order to improve the knowledge about the temporal rainfall distribution within a rainfall event. Using the pre-processed rainfall data Huff curves were determined and the binary shape code (BSC) methodology was applied. Although Slovenia covers only about 20,000 km2, results indicate large temporal and spatial variability in the precipitation pattern of the analysed stations, which is in agreement with the different Slovenian climate types: sub-Mediterranean, temperate continental, and mountain climate. Statistically significant correlation was identified between the most frequent BSC types, mean annual precipitation, and rainfall erosivity for individual rainfall stations. Moreover, different temporal rainfall distributions were observed for rainfall events with shorter duration (less than 12 h) than those with longer duration (more than 24 h). Using the analysis of the Huff curves it was shown that the variability in the Huff curves decreases with increasing rainfall duration. Thus, it seems that for shorter duration convective storms a more diverse temporal rainfall distribution can be expected than for the longer duration frontal precipitation where temporal rainfall distribution shows less variability.

Features of accumulation of radiation defects in metal with impurity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskakov, B.M.

2002-01-01

The processes of accumulation and annealing of radiation defects in solids are being studied for the last fifty years quite intensively. Many regularities of these processes are fixed, but there are more unsolved problems. The computer simulation is one of the effective tools in finding the mechanisms of accumulation and annealing of radiation defects in solids. The numerical solution of the system of the differential equations by means of computers describing kinetics of accumulation of radiation point defects in metals with impurity, has allowed to receive a number of new outcomes. It was revealed, that a determinative factor influential in concentration of point defects (vacancies and interstitial atoms), formed during an exposure of metal, is the correlation a speed of Frenkel twins recombination, the capture of defects by impurity atoms and absorption of defects by other drainage, for example by dislocations. If the speed of capture of interstitial atoms by impurity atoms for two - three order is lower than the recombination speed of Frenkel twins and on two - three order exceeds the speed of capture of vacancies by impurity atoms, the concentration of interstitial atoms within the first seconds of an exposure passes through a maximum, then quickly decreases in some times and after that starts slowly to grow. The change of concentration of interstitial atoms in an initial period of an exposure does not influence on the change of a vacancy concentration. Within the whole period of an exposure, during which the concentration of interstitial atoms achieves a maximum and then is reduced, the vacancy concentration is steadily enlarged. However subsequent sluggish rise of concentration of interstitial atoms during an exposure is followed by the decrease of the vacancy concentration. The most remarkable feature of the kinetics of accumulation of interstitial atoms in metals with impurity is the presence of two extremum on curve dependence of interstitial atoms on a

Diurnal circulations and their multi-scale interaction leading to rainfall over the South China Sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal monsoon westerly wind bursts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Myung-Sook; Elsberry, Russell L. [Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Meteorology, Monterey, CA (United States); Ho, Chang-Hoi [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jinwon [University of California in Los Angeles, Department of Meteorology, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2011-10-15

The morning diurnal precipitation maximum over the coastal sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal westerly wind bursts is examined from observations and numerical model simulations. A well-defined case of precipitation and large-scale circulation over the coastal sea west of the Philippines during 17-27 June 2004 is selected as a representative case. The hypothesis is that the mesoscale diurnal circulation over the Philippines and a large-scale diurnal circulation that is induced by large-scale differential heating over Asian continent and the surrounding ocean interact to produce the offshore precipitation maximum during the morning. Three-hourly combined satellite microwave and infrared rainfall retrievals define the morning rainfall peak during this period, and then later the stratiform rain area extends toward the open sea. A control numerical simulation in which a grid-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is applied to force the large-scale diurnal circulation represents reasonably well the morning rainfall maximum. An enhanced low-level convergence similar to observations is simulated due to the interaction of the local- and large-scale diurnal circulations. The essential role of the local-scale diurnal circulation is illustrated in a sensitivity test in which the solar zenith angle is fixed at 7 am to suppress this diurnal circulation. The implication for climate diagnosis or modeling of such upstream coastal sea precipitation maxima is that the diurnal variations of both the local- and the large-scale circulations must be taken into consideration. (orig.)

The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

2012-12-01

Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

2018-04-01

This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Yuang Huang

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Moderate Typhoon Morakot (2009 became the most catastrophic typhoon in Taiwan on record. The MM5 numerical experiments with and without bogus data assimilation (BDA were used to investigate the extreme rainfall mechanisms in Taiwan associated with the westbound typhoon. The BDA, based on 4DVAR, helps MM5 to maintain a more consolidated typhoon vortex and better predict the observed track after landfall, thus producing realistic extreme rainfall (about 2400 mm at the southern and Central Mountain Range (CMR of Taiwan. Severe rainfall in Taiwan is dominated by the CMR that hence modulates rainfall predictability.

Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2017-11-01

Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

A comprehensive continent-wide regionalisation investigation for daily design rainfall

OpenAIRE

F. Johnson; J. Green

2018-01-01

Study region: Australia. Study focus: Design rainfalls, in the form of Intensity Duration Frequency curves, are the standard input for most flood studies. Methods to combine rainfall data across space are required to provide optimal estimates of design rainfalls and constrain their uncertainty. This paper robustly investigates the use of a variety of regionalization methods to provide Australia wide design rainfall estimates using 8619 high quality rainfall stations. The influence of an indiv...

Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Goswami, Sayantika; Das, Debanjana; Middey, Anirban

2014-05-01

Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5-35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.

Interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa linked to cut-off low associated rainfall

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The influence of cut-off low (COL) associated rainfall on interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast region of South Africa for the period 1979-2011 is investigated. COLs are objectively identified and tracked on daily average 500 h...

prediction of rainfall in the southern highlands of tanzania

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

distribution at different places in the world. A study to ... climate indices influence rainfall. It has been observed .... Table 4: Summary of Predictors entered MLR and PCR models for MAM and OND rainfalls. .... from the cumulus clouds; rainfall is.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Zulkarnain

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

2018-01-01

Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

Effect of pulsed electric fields (PEF) on accumulation of selenium and zinc ions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Pankiewicz, Urszula; Sujka, Monika; Kowalski, Radosław; Mazurek, Artur; Włodarczyk-Stasiak, Marzena; Jamroz, Jerzy

2017-04-15

The cultures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae were treated with pulsed electric fields (PEF) in order to obtain a maximum accumulation of selenium and zinc ions (simultaneously) in the biomass. The following concentrations: 100μgSe/ml and 150μgZn/ml medium were assumed to be optimal for the maximum accumulation of these ions, that is 43.07mg/gd.m. for selenium and 14.48mg/gd.m. for zinc, in the cultures treated with PEF. At optimal PEF parameters: electric field strength of 3kV/cm and pulse width of 10μs after the treatment of 20-h culture for 10min, the maximum accumulation of both ions in the yeast cells was observed. Application of PEF caused the increase of ions accumulation by 65% for selenium and 100% for zinc. Optimization of PEF parameters led to the further rise in the both ions accumulation resulting in over 2-fold and 2.5-fold higher concentration of selenium and zinc. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model? Findings obtained from symbolic regression, using Eureqa

Science.gov (United States)

Abrahart, R. J.; Beriro, D. J.

2012-04-01

The information content in a rainfall-runoff record is sufficient to support models of only very limited complexity (Jakeman and Hornberger, 1993). This begs the question of what limits should observed data place on the allowable complexity of rainfall-runoff models? Eureqa1 (Schmidt and Lipson, 2009) - pronounced "eureka" - is a software tool for finding equations and detecting mathematical relationships in a dataset. The challenge, for both software and modeller, is to identify, by means of symbolic regression, the simplest mathematical formulas which describe the underlying mechanisms that produced the data. It actually delivers, however, a series of preferred modelling solutions comprising one champion for each specific level of complexity i.e. related to solution enlargement involving the progressive incorporation of additional permitted factors (internal operators/ external drivers). The potential benefit of increased complexity can as a result be assessed in a rational manner. Eureqa is free to download and use; and, in the current study, has been employed to construct a set of rainfall-runoff transfer function models for the Annapolis River at Wilmot, in north-western Nova Scotia, Canada. The climatic conditions in this catchment present an interesting set of modelling challenges; daily variations and seasonal changes in temperature, snowfall and retention result in great difficulty for runoff prediction by means of a data-driven approach. Data from 10 years of daily observations are used in the present study (01/01/2000-31/12/2009): comprising [i] discharge, [ii] total rainfall (excluding snowfall), [iii] total snowfall, [iv] thickness of snow cover, and [v] maximum and [vi] minimum temperature. Precipitation occurs throughout the whole year being slightly lower during summer. Snowfall is common from November until April and rare hurricane weather may occur in autumn. The average maximum temperature is below 0 0C in January and February, but significant

Impacts of traffic and rainfall characteristics on heavy metals build-up and wash-off from urban roads.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahbub, Parvez; Ayoko, Godwin A; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Kokot, Serge

2010-12-01

An investigation into the effects of changes in urban traffic characteristics due to rapid urbanisation and the predicted changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change on the build-up and wash-off of heavy metals was carried out in Gold Coast, Australia. The study sites encompassed three different urban land uses. Nine heavy metals commonly associated with traffic emissions were selected. The results were interpreted using multivariate data analysis and decision making tools, such as principal component analysis (PCA), fuzzy clustering (FC), PROMETHEE, and GAIA. Initial analyses established high, low, and moderate traffic scenarios as well as low, low to moderate, moderate, high, and extreme rainfall scenarios for build-up and wash-off investigations. GAIA analyses established that moderate to high traffic scenarios could affect the build-up, while moderate to high rainfall scenarios could affect the wash-off of heavy metals under changed conditions. However, in wash-off, metal concentrations in 1-75 μm fraction were found to be independent of the changes to rainfall characteristics. In build-up, high traffic activities in commercial and industrial areas influenced the accumulation of heavy metal concentrations in particulate size range from 75 - >300 μm, whereas metal concentrations in finer size range of 300 μm can be targeted for removal of Ni, Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, and Zn from build-up, while organic matter from 300 μm can be targeted for removal of Cd, Cr, Pb, and Ni from wash-off. Cu and Zn need to be removed as free ions from most fractions in wash-off.

Rainfall-threshold conditions for landslides in a humid-tropical system

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Matthew C.; Simon, Andrew

1993-01-01

Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as

Regional rainfall climatologies derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data

Science.gov (United States)

Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Nelkin, Eric J.; Huffman, George J.

1994-01-01

Climatologies of convective precipitation were derived from passive microwave observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager using a scattering-based algorithm of Adler et al. Data were aggregated over periods of 3-5 months using data from 4 to 5 years. Data were also stratified by satellite overpass times (primarily 06 00 and 18 00 local time). Four regions (Mexico, Amazonia, western Africa, and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (TOGA COARE area) were chosen for their meteorological interest and relative paucity of conventional observations. The strong diurnal variation over Mexico and the southern United States was the most striking aspect of the climatologies. Pronounced morning maxima occured offshore, often in concativities in the coastline, the result of the increased convergence caused by the coastline shape. The major feature of the evening rain field was a linear-shaped maximum along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Topography exerted a strong control on the rainfall in other areas, particularly near the Nicaragua/Honduras border and in Guatemala, where maxima in excess of 700 mm/month were located adjacent to local maxima in terrain. The correlation between the estimates and monthly gage data over the southern United States was low (0.45), due mainly to poor temporal sampling in any month and an inadequate sampling of the diurnal cycle. Over the Amazon Basin the differences in morning versus evening rainfall were complex, with an alternating series of morning/evening maxima aligned southwest to northeast from the Andes to the northeast Brazilian coast. A real extent of rainfall in Amazonia was slightly higher in the evening, but a maximum in morning precipitation was found on the Amazon River just east of Manaus. Precipitation over the water in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of Brazil was more pronounced in the morning, and a pronounced land-/sea-breeze circulation was found along the northeast coast of Brazil

The rainfall plot: its motivation, characteristics and pitfalls.

Science.gov (United States)

Domanska, Diana; Vodák, Daniel; Lund-Andersen, Christin; Salvatore, Stefania; Hovig, Eivind; Sandve, Geir Kjetil

2017-05-18

A visualization referred to as rainfall plot has recently gained popularity in genome data analysis. The plot is mostly used for illustrating the distribution of somatic cancer mutations along a reference genome, typically aiming to identify mutation hotspots. In general terms, the rainfall plot can be seen as a scatter plot showing the location of events on the x-axis versus the distance between consecutive events on the y-axis. Despite its frequent use, the motivation for applying this particular visualization and the appropriateness of its usage have never been critically addressed in detail. We show that the rainfall plot allows visual detection even for events occurring at high frequency over very short distances. In addition, event clustering at multiple scales may be detected as distinct horizontal bands in rainfall plots. At the same time, due to the limited size of standard figures, rainfall plots might suffer from inability to distinguish overlapping events, especially when multiple datasets are plotted in the same figure. We demonstrate the consequences of plot congestion, which results in obscured visual data interpretations. This work provides the first comprehensive survey of the characteristics and proper usage of rainfall plots. We find that the rainfall plot is able to convey a large amount of information without any need for parameterization or tuning. However, we also demonstrate how plot congestion and the use of a logarithmic y-axis may result in obscured visual data interpretations. To aid the productive utilization of rainfall plots, we demonstrate their characteristics and potential pitfalls using both simulated and real data, and provide a set of practical guidelines for their proper interpretation and usage.

Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wied Pedersen, Jonas; Lund, Nadia Schou Vorndran; Borup, Morten

2016-01-01

High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper...... period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior...

Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

2017-07-01

Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

Dry spell, onset and cessation of the wet season rainfall in the Upper Baro-Akobo Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Asfaw; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Edossa, Desalegn C.

2017-08-01

In this study, maximum dry spell length and number of dry spell periods of rainy seasons in the upper Baro-Akobo River basin which is a part of the Nile basin, Western Ethiopia, were investigated to analyse the drought trend. Daily rainfall records of the period 1972-2000 from eight rain gauge stations were used in the analysis, and Mann-Kendall test was used to test trends for significance. Furthermore, the beginning and end of the trend development in the dry spell were also tested using the sequential version of Mann-Kendall test. Results have shown that there is neither clear monotonic trend found in dry spell for the basin nor significant fluctuation in the onset, cession and duration of rainfall in the Baro-Akobo river basin. This sufficiently explains why rain-fed agriculture has suffered little in the western part of Ethiopia. The predictable nature of dry spell pattern may have allowed farmers to adjust to rainfall variability in the basin. Unlike many parts of Ethiopia, the Baro-Akobo basin climate variability is not a limiting factor for rain-fed agriculture productivity which may contribute significantly to national food security.

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia

2017-04-01

Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was

A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

Science.gov (United States)

Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

Determination of Areas Susceptible to Landsliding Using Spatial Patterns of Rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Data, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renato Fontes Guimarães

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Spatial patterns of shallow landslide initiation reflect both spatial patterns of heavy rainfall and areas susceptible to mass movements. We determine the areas most susceptible to shallow landslide occurrence through the calculation of critical soil cohesion and spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data for Paraty County, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our methodology involved: (a creating the digital elevation model (DEM and deriving attributes such as slope and contributing area; (b incorporating spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM into the shallow slope stability model SHALSTAB; and (c quantitative assessment of the correspondence of mapped landslide scars to areas predicted to be most prone to shallow landsliding. We found that around 70% of the landslide scars occurred in less than 10% of the study area identified as potentially unstable. The greatest concentration of landslides occurred in areas where the root strength of vegetation is an important contribution to slope stability in regions of orographically-enhanced rainfall on the coastal topographic flank. This approach helps quantify landslide hazards in areas with similar geomorphological characteristics, but different spatial patterns of rainfall.

A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Salsón

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models require fine resolution rainfall inputs, enhancing the practical interest of space-time rainfall models, capable of generating through numerical simulation realistic space-time rainfall intensity fields. Among different mathematical approaches, those based on point processes and built upon a convenient analytical description of the raincell as the fundamental unit, have shown to be particularly suitable and well adapted when extreme rainfall events of convective nature are considered. Starting from previous formulations, some analytical refinements have been considered, allowing practical generation of space-time rainfall intensity fields for that type of rainstorm events. Special attention is placed on the analytical description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall intensities produced by the raincells. After deriving the necessary analytical results, the seven parameters of the model have been estimated by the method of moments, for each of the 30 selected rainfall events in the Jucar River Basin (ValenciaSpain – period 1991 to 2000, using 5-min aggregated rainfall data series from an automatic raingauge network.

Disposal of Low-Activity Waste and Accumulation in Cultivated Soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbier, G.; Michon, G.

1960-01-01

The paper describes a method of accumulating long-lived radioisotopes in soils and calculating the maximum contamination they would cause in vegetables grown on these soils. The authors suggest a way of expressing this contamination and a formula by which the maximum contamination of one kilogramme of the harvested produce in relation to the tolerated contamination per litre of irrigation water could be calculated. (author) [fr

Disposal of Low-Activity Waste and Accumulation in Cultivated Soils

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baubier, G. [Central Agricultural Research Station, Versailles (France); Michon, G. [Atomic Health Physics Service, Saclay Nuclear Research Centre (France)

1960-07-01

The paper describes a method of accumulating long-lived radioisotopes in soils and calculating the maximum contamination they would cause in vegetables grown on these soils. The authors suggest a way of expressing this contamination and a formula by which the maximum contamination of one kilogramme of the harvested produce in relation to the tolerated contamination per litre of irrigation water could be calculated. (author)

Apply data mining to analyze the rainfall of landslide

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Chou-Yuan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Taiwan is listed as extremely dangerous country which suffers from many disasters. The disasters from the landslide result in the loss of agricultural productions, life and property and so on. Many researchers concern about the disasters of landslide, but there are few discussions for the threshold of rainfall for landslide. In this paper, data mining is applied to establish rules and the threshold of rainfall for landslide in Huafan University, Taiwan. These used variables include rainfall, insolation, insolation rate, averaged humidity, averaged temperature, wind speed, and the tilt of inclinometer. The inclinometer is an important instrument for measuring tilt, elevation or depression of an object with respect to gravity. There are 26 inclinometers in Talun mountain area of Huafan University. In this research, the used data were collected from January 2008 to July 2014. In the proposed approach, the regression analysis is used to predict rainfall first. Then, decision tree is used to obtain decision rules and set the threshold of rainfall for landslide. The output of this approach can provide more information for understanding the change of rainfall. The threshold of rainfall could also provide useful information to maintain the security for Huafan University.

Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

Science.gov (United States)

Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

2018-05-01

Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some

Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Polyakov, Viktor; Stone, Jeffry; Holifield Collins, Chandra; Nearing, Mark A.; Paige, Ginger; Buono, Jared; Gomez-Pond, Rae-Landa

2018-01-01

This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with various degrees of disturbance by grazing, wildfire, or brush removal. This dataset advances our understanding of basic hydrological and biological processes that drive soil erosion on arid rangelands. It can be used to estimate runoff, infiltration, and erosion rates at a variety of ecological sites in the Southwestern USA. The inclusion of wildfire and brush treatment locations combined with long-term observations makes it important for studying vegetation recovery, ecological transitions, and the effect of management. It is also a valuable resource for erosion model parameterization and validation. The dataset is available from the National Agricultural Library at https://data.nal.usda.gov/search/type/dataset (DOI: https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1358583).

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

Mathematical and physical modeling of rainfall in centrifuge

OpenAIRE

CAICEDO, Bernardo; THOREL, Luc; TRISTANCHO, Julian

2015-01-01

Rainfall simulation in centrifuge models is important for modelling soil-atmosphere interactions. However, the presence of Coriolis force, drag forces, evaporation and wind within the centrifuge may affect the distribution of rainfall over the model. As a result, development of appropriate centrifuge rain simulators requires a demanding process of experimental trial and error. This paper highlights the key factors involved in controlling rainfall in centrifuge simulations, develops a mathemat...

Impact of Rainfall on Multilane Roundabout Flowrate Contraction

Science.gov (United States)

PARKSHIR, Amir; BEN-EDIGBE, Johnnie

2017-08-01

In this study, roundabouts at two sites in the Malaysia were investigated under rainy and dry weather conditions. Two automatic traffic counters per roundabout arm as well as two rain gauge stations were used to collect data at each surveyed site. Nearly one million vehicles were investigated at four sites. Vehicle volume, speeds and headways for entry and circulating flows were collected continuously at each roundabout about arm for six weeks between November 2013 and January 2014. Empirical regression technique and gap-acceptance models were modified and used to analyze roundabout capacity. Good fits to the data were obtained; the results also fit models developed in other countries. It was assumed that entry capacity depends on the geometric characteristics of the roundabout, particularly the diameter of the outside circle of the intersection. It was also postulated that geometric characteristics determine the speed of vehicles around the central island and, therefore, have an impact on the gap-acceptance process and consequently the capacity. Only off-peak traffic data per light, moderate or heavy rainfall were analysed. Peak traffic data were not used because of the presence of peak traffic flow. Passenger car equivalent values being an instrument of conversion from traffic volume to flow were modified. Results show that, average entry capacity loss is about 22.6% under light rainfall, about 18.1% under moderate rainfall and about 5.6% under heavy rainfall. Significant entry capacity loss would result from rainfall irrespective of their intensity. It can be postulated that entry capacity loss under heavy rainfall is lowest because the advantage enjoyed by circulating flow would be greatly reduced with increased rainfall intensity. The paper concluded that rainfall has significant impact of flowrate contraction at roundabouts.

Experimental measurement and modeling of snow accumulation and snowmelt in a mountain microcatchment

Science.gov (United States)

Danko, Michal; Krajčí, Pavel; Hlavčo, Jozef; Kostka, Zdeněk; Holko, Ladislav

2016-04-01

Fieldwork is a very useful source of data in all geosciences. This naturally applies also to the snow hydrology. Snow accumulation and snowmelt are spatially very heterogeneous especially in non-forested, mountain environments. Direct field measurements provide the most accurate information about it. Quantification and understanding of processes, that cause these spatial differences are crucial in prediction and modelling of runoff volumes in spring snowmelt period. This study presents possibilities of detailed measurement and modeling of snow cover characteristics in a mountain experimental microcatchment located in northern part of Slovakia in Western Tatra mountains. Catchment area is 0.059 km2 and mean altitude is 1500 m a.s.l. Measurement network consists of 27 snow poles, 3 small snow lysimeters, discharge measurement device and standard automatic weather station. Snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) were measured twice a month near the snow poles. These measurements were used to estimate spatial differences in accumulation of SWE. Snowmelt outflow was measured by small snow lysimeters. Measurements were performed in winter 2014/2015. Snow water equivalent variability was very high in such a small area. Differences between particular measuring points reached 600 mm in time of maximum SWE. The results indicated good performance of a snow lysimeter in case of snowmelt timing identification. Increase of snowmelt measured by the snow lysimeter had the same timing as increase in discharge at catchment's outlet and the same timing as the increase in air temperature above the freezing point. Measured data were afterwards used in distributed rainfall-runoff model MIKE-SHE. Several methods were used for spatial distribution of precipitation and snow water equivalent. The model was able to simulate snow water equivalent and snowmelt timing in daily step reasonably well. Simulated discharges were slightly overestimated in later spring.

Characterizing rainfall parameters which influence erosivity in southeastern Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obi, M.E.; Salako, F.K.

1993-12-01

An investigation was carried out to characterize some selected parameters which influence rainfall erosivity in southeastern Nigeria. Rainfall amount, distribution, duration, intensity, storm types, energy loads and frequency of rain events in the region were studied using data from stations located in three major agroecological zones. Raindrop size and detaching capacity were evaluated in one of the stations for two months. The mean annual rainfall erosivity values for southeastern Nigeria point to the fact that rainfall tend to be highly erosive. 25 refs, 6 figs, 8 tabs

Rainfall simulation for environmental application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

1977-08-01

Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

Low-altitude outbreaks of human fascioliasis related with summer rainfall in Gilan province, Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdoreza Salahi-Moghaddam

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Following human fascioliasis outbreaks in 1988 and 1999 in Gilan province, northern Iran, efforts are now made to shed light on the seasonal pattern of fascioliasis transmission in this endemic area, taking into account snail host populations, climatic conditions and human cases. Populations of the intermediate host snail (Lymnaea spp. peak in May and November, while there is a fourfold increase in the rate of human fascioliasis in February compared to that of September. Transmission is likely to occur mainly in late autumn and sporadically in late spring. Rainfall, seasonally analysed in periods of 3 years, indicates that accumulated summer rainfall may be related with the 1988 and 1999 human fascioliasis outbreaks. Although a more detailed picture, based on the analysis of further abiotic and biotic factors influencing fascioliasis transmission in this area, is required to substantiate this hypothesis, our results serve as the first step of a geographical information system project concerning the epidemiological study of fascioliasis in Iran. This local-scale study concerning the effects of climate change and natural disasters on the spread of fascioliasis aims to facilitate the understanding of what goes on at the regional scale in this respect.

Low-altitude outbreaks of human fascioliasis related with summer rainfall in Gilan province, Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Salahi-Moghaddam, Abdoreza; Habibi-Nokhandam, Majid; Fuentes, Màrius V

2011-11-01

Following human fascioliasis outbreaks in 1988 and 1999 in Gilan province, northern Iran, efforts are now made to shed light on the seasonal pattern of fascioliasis transmission in this endemic area, taking into account snail host populations, climatic conditions and human cases. Populations of the intermediate host snail (Lymnaea spp.) peak in May and November, while there is a fourfold increase in the rate of human fascioliasis in February compared to that of September. Transmission is likely to occur mainly in late autumn and sporadically in late spring. Rainfall, seasonally analysed in periods of 3 years, indicates that accumulated summer rainfall may be related with the 1988 and 1999 human fascioliasis outbreaks. Although a more detailed picture, based on the analysis of further abiotic and biotic factors influencing fascioliasis transmission in this area, is required to substantiate this hypothesis, our results serve as the first step of a geographical information system project concerning the epidemiological study of fascioliasis in Iran. This local-scale study concerning the effects of climate change and natural disasters on the spread of fascioliasis aims to facilitate the understanding of what goes on at the regional scale in this respect.

Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall.

Science.gov (United States)

Putnam, Aaron E; Broecker, Wallace S

2017-05-01

A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth's rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth's inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth's thermal equator, around which the planet's rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres.

Characterizing rainfall in the Tenerife island

Science.gov (United States)

Díez-Sierra, Javier; del Jesus, Manuel; Losada Rodriguez, Inigo

2017-04-01

In many locations, rainfall data are collected through networks of meteorological stations. The data collection process is nowadays automated in many places, leading to the development of big databases of rainfall data covering extensive areas of territory. However, managers, decision makers and engineering consultants tend not to extract most of the information contained in these databases due to the lack of specific software tools for their exploitation. Here we present the modeling and development effort put in place in the Tenerife island in order to develop MENSEI-L, a software tool capable of automatically analyzing a complete rainfall database to simplify the extraction of information from observations. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information derived from atmospheric conditions to separate the complete time series into homogeneous groups where statistical distributions are fitted. Normal and extreme regimes are obtained in this manner. MENSEI-L is also able to complete missing data in the time series and to generate synthetic stations by using Kriging techniques. These techniques also serve to generate the spatial regimes of precipitation, both normal and extreme ones. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information to also provide a stochastic three-day probability forecast for rainfall.

Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

a given amount of rain occurs is important because heavier rainfall leads to greater runoff, greater soil erosion and less infiltration into the water table. A knowledge of rainfall intensity therefore becomes. Keywords. Rainfall intensity; Kerala; cumulative distribution. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 116, No. 5, October 2007, pp. 451–463.

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544

How is rainfall interception in urban area affected by meteorological parameters?

Science.gov (United States)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Mikoš, Matjaž; Šraj, Mojca

2017-04-01

Rainfall interception is part of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation, which hits vegetation, is retained on the leaves and branches, from which it eventually evaporates into the atmosphere (interception) or reaches the ground by dripping from the canopy, falling through the gaps (throughfall) and running down the stems (stemflow). The amount of rainfall reaching the ground depends on various meteorological and vegetation parameters. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow have been measured in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia since the beginning of 2014. Manual and automatic measurements are performed regularly under Betula pendula and Pinus nigra trees in urban area. In 2014, there were detected 178 rainfall events with total amount of 1672.1 mm. In average B. pendula intercepted 44% of rainfall and P. nigra intercepted 72% of rainfall. In 2015 we have detected 117 events with 1047.4 mm of rainfall, of which 37% was intercepted by B. pendula and 60% by P. nigra. The effect of various meteorological parameters on the rainfall interception was analysed in the study. The parameters included in the analysis were rainfall rate, rainfall duration, drop size distribution (average drop velocity and diameter), average wind speed, and average temperature. The results demonstrate decreasing rainfall interception with longer rainfall duration and higher rainfall intensity although the impact of the latter one is not statistically significant. In the case of very fast or very slow rainfall drops, the interception is higher than for the mean rain drop velocity values. In the case of P. nigra the impact of the rain drop diameter on interception is similar to the one of rain drop velocity while for B. pendula increasing of drop diameter also increases the interception. As expected, interception is higher for warmer events. This trend is more evident for P. nigra than for B. pendula. Furthermore, the amount of intercepted rainfall also increases with wind although it could be

Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

Science.gov (United States)

Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

2018-05-01

Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

Influence of surface water accumulations of the Stupnica creek on underground coal mining in the Durdevic coal mine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valjarevic, R; Urosevic, V

1986-01-01

Discusses hydrological, geological and mining conditions at the Durdevic underground coal mine. A landslide at a spoil bank dammed the creek flowing above the mine. Two exploratory boreholes (62 m and 68 m) were drilled for hydrological investigations. Water coloring techniques, chemical water analysis, measurement of underground water level and water flow were used to determine whether a sudden inrush of rainfall and accumulated surface water could endanger the mine. Underground water inflow to mine rooms varies from 110-200 m/sup 3//min, depending on the season. Diversion of the creek bed with the accumulated water and accumulation and subsequent drainage of surface water via large diameter concrete pipes were considered as possible ways of improving safety in the mine. Details of these projects are included. 4 refs.

Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

2017-02-01

Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora

1997-05-01

Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

Relationship between rainfall and microbiological contamination of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Outbreaks of contamination events in many developing countries occur during periods of peak rainfall. This study presents evidence of direct pulse response of shallow groundwater contamination events to rainfall in Northern Mozambique. The objective of the paper is to establish both a statistical relationship between ...

Developing empirical relationship between interrill erosion, rainfall ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In order to develop an empirical relationship for interrill erosion based on rainfall intensity, slope steepness and soil types, an interrill erosion experiment was conducted using laboratory rainfall simulator on three soil types (Vertisols, Cambisols and Leptosols) for the highlands of North Shewa Zone of Oromia Region.

Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. T. Brunetti

2010-03-01

Full Text Available In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four

Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara–Serengeti ... To understand how rainfall influences ostriches, we related changes in ostrich recruitment in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem to rainfall. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

How El-Nino affects Ethiopian summer rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel; Viste, Ellen

2016-04-01

Ethiopian economy and society are strongly dependent on agriculture and therefore rainfall. Reliable forecasts for the rainy seasons are important to allow for agricultural planning and drought preparations. The operational seasonal forecasts for Ethiopia are based on analogue methods relying mainly on sea surface temperature (SST) indices. A better understanding of the physical links between Ethiopian rainfall and SST may help to improve forecasts. The highest rainfall rates are observed in the Kiremt season (defined as JJAS), which is the rainy season in Central and Northwestern Ethiopia. Kiremt rainfall shows clear negative correlation with Central Pacific SST, linking dry Ethiopian summers with ENSO-like warm SST anomalies. We use the atmosphere general circulation model Echam5.3 to investigate the physical link between Pacific SST anomalies and Kiremt rainfall. We compare a historical simulation with a T106 horizontal resolution (~ 1.125°), forced with reconstructed SST data, to gauge-based rainfall observations for the time period of 1961 to 2009. Composite analysis for model and observations show warm SST anomalies in the Central Pacific and a corresponding large-scale circulation anomaly with subsidence over Ethiopia in dry Kiremt seasons. Horizontal wind fields show a slow-down of the whole Indian monsoon system with a weaker Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and a weaker East African Low-Level Jet (EALLJ) in these summers. We conducted a sensitivity experiment with El Nino like SST anomalies in the Central Pacific with the same Echam version. Its results show that warm Pacific SST anomalies cause dry summer conditions over Ethiopia. While the large-scale subsidence over East Africa is present in the experiment, there is no significant weakening of the Indian monsoon system. We rather find an anomalous circulation cell over Northern Africa with westerlies at 100-200 hPa and easterlies below 500 hPa. The anomalous easterly flow in the lower and middle