Sample records for maximum open probability

  1. Maximum Entropy and Probability Kinematics Constrained by Conditionals

    Stefan Lukits


    Full Text Available Two open questions of inductive reasoning are solved: (1 does the principle of maximum entropy (PME give a solution to the obverse Majerník problem; and (2 isWagner correct when he claims that Jeffrey’s updating principle (JUP contradicts PME? Majerník shows that PME provides unique and plausible marginal probabilities, given conditional probabilities. The obverse problem posed here is whether PME also provides such conditional probabilities, given certain marginal probabilities. The theorem developed to solve the obverse Majerník problem demonstrates that in the special case introduced by Wagner PME does not contradict JUP, but elegantly generalizes it and offers a more integrated approach to probability updating.

  2. Pattern formation, logistics, and maximum path probability

    Kirkaldy, J. S.


    The concept of pattern formation, which to current researchers is a synonym for self-organization, carries the connotation of deductive logic together with the process of spontaneous inference. Defining a pattern as an equivalence relation on a set of thermodynamic objects, we establish that a large class of irreversible pattern-forming systems, evolving along idealized quasisteady paths, approaches the stable steady state as a mapping upon the formal deductive imperatives of a propositional function calculus. In the preamble the classical reversible thermodynamics of composite systems is analyzed as an externally manipulated system of space partitioning and classification based on ideal enclosures and diaphragms. The diaphragms have discrete classification capabilities which are designated in relation to conserved quantities by descriptors such as impervious, diathermal, and adiabatic. Differentiability in the continuum thermodynamic calculus is invoked as equivalent to analyticity and consistency in the underlying class or sentential calculus. The seat of inference, however, rests with the thermodynamicist. In the transition to an irreversible pattern-forming system the defined nature of the composite reservoirs remains, but a given diaphragm is replaced by a pattern-forming system which by its nature is a spontaneously evolving volume partitioner and classifier of invariants. The seat of volition or inference for the classification system is thus transferred from the experimenter or theoretician to the diaphragm, and with it the full deductive facility. The equivalence relations or partitions associated with the emerging patterns may thus be associated with theorems of the natural pattern-forming calculus. The entropy function, together with its derivatives, is the vehicle which relates the logistics of reservoirs and diaphragms to the analog logistics of the continuum. Maximum path probability or second-order differentiability of the entropy in isolation are

  3. Survival probability for open spherical billiards

    Dettmann, Carl P.; Rahman, Mohammed R.


    We study the survival probability for long times in an open spherical billiard, extending previous work on the circular billiard. We provide details of calculations regarding two billiard configurations, specifically a sphere with a circular hole and a sphere with a square hole. The constant terms of the long-time survival probability expansions have been derived analytically. Terms that vanish in the long time limit are investigated analytically and numerically, leading to connections with the Riemann hypothesis.

  4. Maximum-entropy probability distributions under Lp-norm constraints

    Dolinar, S.


    Continuous probability density functions and discrete probability mass functions are tabulated which maximize the differential entropy or absolute entropy, respectively, among all probability distributions with a given L sub p norm (i.e., a given pth absolute moment when p is a finite integer) and unconstrained or constrained value set. Expressions for the maximum entropy are evaluated as functions of the L sub p norm. The most interesting results are obtained and plotted for unconstrained (real valued) continuous random variables and for integer valued discrete random variables. The maximum entropy expressions are obtained in closed form for unconstrained continuous random variables, and in this case there is a simple straight line relationship between the maximum differential entropy and the logarithm of the L sub p norm. Corresponding expressions for arbitrary discrete and constrained continuous random variables are given parametrically; closed form expressions are available only for special cases. However, simpler alternative bounds on the maximum entropy of integer valued discrete random variables are obtained by applying the differential entropy results to continuous random variables which approximate the integer valued random variables in a natural manner. All the results are presented in an integrated framework that includes continuous and discrete random variables, constraints on the permissible value set, and all possible values of p. Understanding such as this is useful in evaluating the performance of data compression schemes.

  5. A probabilistic approach to the concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation

    Papalexiou, S. M.; D. Koutsoyiannis


    International audience; The concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is based on the assumptions that (a) there exists an upper physical limit of the precipitation depth over a given area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year, and (b) that this limit can be estimated based on deterministic considerations. The most representative and widespread estimation method of PMP is the so-called moisture maximization method. This method maximizes observed storms assuming...

  6. Maximum Entropy Estimation of Transition Probabilities of Reversible Markov Chains

    Erik Van der Straeten


    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a general theory for the estimation of the transition probabilities of reversible Markov chains using the maximum entropy principle. A broad range of physical models can be studied within this approach. We use one-dimensional classical spin systems to illustrate the theoretical ideas. The examples studied in this paper are: the Ising model, the Potts model and the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model.

  7. An Integrated Modeling Framework for Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood

    Gangrade, S.; Rastogi, D.; Kao, S. C.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.


    With the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation and flood events projected in the future climate, there is a strong need to enhance our modeling capabilities to assess the potential risks on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major dams and nuclear power plants. In this study, an integrated modeling framework is developed through high performance computing to investigate the climate change effects on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF). Multiple historical storms from 1981-2012 over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin near the Atlanta metropolitan area are simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) forcings. After further WRF model tuning, these storms are used to simulate PMP through moisture maximization at initial and lateral boundaries. A high resolution hydrological model, Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model, implemented at 90m resolution and calibrated by the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow observations, is then used to simulate the corresponding PMF. In addition to the control simulation that is driven by CFSR, multiple storms from the Community Climate System Model version 4 under the Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario are used to simulate PMP and PMF in the projected future climate conditions. The multiple PMF scenarios developed through this integrated modeling framework may be utilized to evaluate the vulnerability of existing energy-water infrastructures with various aspects associated PMP and PMF.

  8. Needs to Update Probable Maximum Precipitation for Critical Infrastructure

    Pathak, C. S.; England, J. F.


    Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is theoretically the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of the year. It is used to develop inflow flood hydrographs, known as Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), as design standard for high-risk flood-hazard structures, such as dams and nuclear power plants. PMP estimation methodology was developed in the 1930s and 40s when many dams were constructed in the US. The procedures to estimate PMP were later standardized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1973 and revised in 1986.In the US, PMP estimates were published in a series of Hydrometeorological Reports (e.g., HMR55A, HMR57, and HMR58/59) by the National Weather Service since 1950s. In these reports, storm data up to 1980s were used to establish the current PMP estimates. Since that time, we have acquired additional meteorological data for 30 to 40 years, including newly available radar and satellite based precipitation data. These data sets are expected to have improved data quality and availability in both time and space. In addition, significant numbers of extreme storms have occurred and selected numbers of these events were even close to or exceeding the current PMP estimates, in some cases. In the last 50 years, climate science has progressed and scientists have better and improved understanding of atmospheric physics of extreme storms. However, applied research in estimation of PMP has been lagging behind. Alternative methods, such as atmospheric numerical modeling, should be investigated for estimating PMP and associated uncertainties. It would be highly desirable if regional atmospheric numerical models could be utilized in the estimation of PMP and their uncertainties, in addition to methods used to originally develop PMP index maps in the existing hydrometeorological reports.

  9. Estimating the exceedance probability of extreme rainfalls up to the probable maximum precipitation

    Nathan, Rory; Jordan, Phillip; Scorah, Matthew; Lang, Simon; Kuczera, George; Schaefer, Melvin; Weinmann, Erwin


    If risk-based criteria are used in the design of high hazard structures (such as dam spillways and nuclear power stations), then it is necessary to estimate the annual exceedance probability (AEP) of extreme rainfalls up to and including the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). This paper describes the development and application of two largely independent methods to estimate the frequencies of such extreme rainfalls. One method is based on stochastic storm transposition (SST), which combines the "arrival" and "transposition" probabilities of an extreme storm using the total probability theorem. The second method, based on "stochastic storm regression" (SSR), combines frequency curves of point rainfalls with regression estimates of local and transposed areal rainfalls; rainfall maxima are generated by stochastically sampling the independent variates, where the required exceedance probabilities are obtained using the total probability theorem. The methods are applied to two large catchments (with areas of 3550 km2 and 15,280 km2) located in inland southern Australia. Both methods were found to provide similar estimates of the frequency of extreme areal rainfalls for the two study catchments. The best estimates of the AEP of the PMP for the smaller and larger of the catchments were found to be 10-7 and 10-6, respectively, but the uncertainty of these estimates spans one to two orders of magnitude. Additionally, the SST method was applied to a range of locations within a meteorologically homogenous region to investigate the nature of the relationship between the AEP of PMP and catchment area.

  10. Probable Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes for the Cascadia Subduction

    Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Magistrale, H.; Goldfinger, C.


    The concept of maximum earthquake magnitude (mx) is widely used in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, absolute mx lacks a precise definition and cannot be determined from a finite earthquake history. The surprising magnitudes of the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes showed that most methods for estimating mx underestimate the true maximum if it exists. Thus, we introduced the alternate concept of mp(T), probable maximum magnitude within a time interval T. The mp(T) can be solved using theoretical magnitude-frequency distributions such as Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) distribution. The two TGR parameters, β-value (which equals 2/3 b-value in the GR distribution) and corner magnitude (mc), can be obtained by applying maximum likelihood method to earthquake catalogs with additional constraint from tectonic moment rate. Here, we integrate the paleoseismic data in the Cascadia subduction zone to estimate mp. The Cascadia subduction zone has been seismically quiescent since at least 1900. Fortunately, turbidite studies have unearthed a 10,000 year record of great earthquakes along the subduction zone. We thoroughly investigate the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution of the region by combining instrumental and paleoseismic data, and using the tectonic moment rate information. To use the paleoseismic data, we first estimate event magnitudes, which we achieve by using the time interval between events, rupture extent of the events, and turbidite thickness. We estimate three sets of TGR parameters: for the first two sets, we consider a geographically large Cascadia region that includes the subduction zone, and the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates; for the third set, we consider a narrow geographic region straddling the subduction zone. In the first set, the β-value is derived using the GCMT catalog. In the second and third sets, the β-value is derived using both the GCMT and paleoseismic data. Next, we calculate the corresponding mc

  11. Paddle River Dam : review of probable maximum flood

    Clark, D. [UMA Engineering Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada); Neill, C.R. [Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada)


    The Paddle River Dam was built in northern Alberta in the mid 1980s for flood control. According to the 1999 Canadian Dam Association (CDA) guidelines, this 35 metre high, zoned earthfill dam with a spillway capacity sized to accommodate a probable maximum flood (PMF) is rated as a very high hazard. At the time of design, it was estimated to have a peak flow rate of 858 centimetres. A review of the PMF in 2002 increased the peak flow rate to 1,890 centimetres. In light of a 2007 revision of the CDA safety guidelines, the PMF was reviewed and the inflow design flood (IDF) was re-evaluated. This paper discussed the levels of uncertainty inherent in PMF determinations and some difficulties encountered with the SSARR hydrologic model and the HEC-RAS hydraulic model in unsteady mode. The paper also presented and discussed the analysis used to determine incremental damages, upon which a new IDF of 840 m{sup 3}/s was recommended. The paper discussed the PMF review, modelling methodology, hydrograph inputs, and incremental damage of floods. It was concluded that the PMF review, involving hydraulic routing through the valley bottom together with reconsideration of the previous runoff modeling provides evidence that the peak reservoir inflow could reasonably be reduced by approximately 20 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 8 figs.

  12. Understanding the Role of Reservoir Size on Probable Maximum Precipitation

    Woldemichael, A. T.; Hossain, F.


    This study addresses the question 'Does surface area of an artificial reservoir matter in the estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for an impounded basin?' The motivation of the study was based on the notion that the stationarity assumption that is implicit in the PMP for dam design can be undermined in the post-dam era due to an enhancement of extreme precipitation patterns by an artificial reservoir. In addition, the study lays the foundation for use of regional atmospheric models as one way to perform life cycle assessment for planned or existing dams to formulate best management practices. The American River Watershed (ARW) with the Folsom dam at the confluence of the American River was selected as the study region and the Dec-Jan 1996-97 storm event was selected for the study period. The numerical atmospheric model used for the study was the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, the numerical modeling system, RAMS, was calibrated and validated with selected station and spatially interpolated precipitation data. Best combinations of parameterization schemes in RAMS were accordingly selected. Second, to mimic the standard method of PMP estimation by moisture maximization technique, relative humidity terms in the model were raised to 100% from ground up to the 500mb level. The obtained model-based maximum 72-hr precipitation values were named extreme precipitation (EP) as a distinction from the PMPs obtained by the standard methods. Third, six hypothetical reservoir size scenarios ranging from no-dam (all-dry) to the reservoir submerging half of basin were established to test the influence of reservoir size variation on EP. For the case of the ARW, our study clearly demonstrated that the assumption of stationarity that is implicit the traditional estimation of PMP can be rendered invalid to a large part due to the very presence of the artificial reservoir. Cloud tracking procedures performed on the basin also give indication of the



  14. Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

    Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.


    State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially

  15. Testing for the maximum cell probabilities in multinomial distributions

    XIONG Shifeng; LI Guoying


    This paper investigates one-sided hypotheses testing for p[1], the largest cell probability of multinomial distribution. A small sample test of Ethier (1982) is extended to the general cases. Based on an estimator of p[1], a kind of large sample tests is proposed. The asymptotic power of the above tests under local alternatives is derived. An example is presented at the end of this paper.

  16. Probability representation of kinetic equation for open quantum system

    Man'ko, V I; Shchukin, E V


    The tomographic probability distribution is used to decribe the kinetic equations for open quantum systems. Damped oscillator is studied. Purity parameter evolution for different damping regime is considered.

  17. Microcanonical origin of the maximum entropy principle for open systems.

    Lee, Julian; Pressé, Steve


    There are two distinct approaches for deriving the canonical ensemble. The canonical ensemble either follows as a special limit of the microcanonical ensemble or alternatively follows from the maximum entropy principle. We show the equivalence of these two approaches by applying the maximum entropy formulation to a closed universe consisting of an open system plus bath. We show that the target function for deriving the canonical distribution emerges as a natural consequence of partial maximization of the entropy over the bath degrees of freedom alone. By extending this mathematical formalism to dynamical paths rather than equilibrium ensembles, the result provides an alternative justification for the principle of path entropy maximization as well.

  18. Unification of Field Theory and Maximum Entropy Methods for Learning Probability Densities

    Kinney, Justin B


    Bayesian field theory and maximum entropy are two methods for learning smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data. Both methods were inspired by statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I show that Bayesian field theory subsumes maximum entropy density estimation. In particular, the most common maximum entropy methods are shown to be limiting cases of Bayesian inference using field theory priors that impose no boundary conditions on candidate densities. This unification provides a natural way to test the validity of the maximum entropy assumption on one's data. It also provides a better-fitting nonparametric density estimate when the maximum entropy assumption is rejected.

  19. Maximum probability domains for the analysis of the microscopic structure of liquids

    Agostini, Federica; Savin, Andreas; Vuilleumier, Rodolphe


    We introduce the concept of maximum probability domains, developed in the context of the analysis of electronic densities, in the study of the microscopic spatial structures of liquids. The idea of locating a particle in a three dimensional region, by determining the domain where the probability of finding that, and only that, particle is maximum, gives an interesting characterisation of the local structure of the liquid. The optimisation procedure, required for the search of the domain of maximum probability, is carried out by the implementation of the level set method. Some results for few case studies are presented. In particular by looking at liquid water at different densities or at the solvation shells of Na$^+$ always in liquid water.

  20. Probability analysis for consecutive-day maximum rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City (south India, Asia)

    Sabarish, R. Mani; Narasimhan, R.; Chandhru, A. R.; Suribabu, C. R.; Sudharsan, J.; Nithiyanantham, S.


    In the design of irrigation and other hydraulic structures, evaluating the magnitude of extreme rainfall for a specific probability of occurrence is of much importance. The capacity of such structures is usually designed to cater to the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during its lifetime. In this study, an extreme value analysis of rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City in Tamil Nadu was carried out using 100 years of rainfall data. Statistical methods were used in the analysis. The best-fit probability distribution was evaluated for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days of continuous maximum rainfall. The goodness of fit was evaluated using Chi-square test. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that log-Pearson type III method is the overall best-fit probability distribution for 1-day maximum rainfall and consecutive 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series of Tiruchirapalli. To be reliable, the forecasted maximum rainfalls for the selected return periods are evaluated in comparison with the results of the plotting position.

  1. Non-parametric frequency analysis of extreme values for integrated disaster management considering probable maximum events

    Takara, K. T.


    This paper describes a non-parametric frequency analysis method for hydrological extreme-value samples with a size larger than 100, verifying the estimation accuracy with a computer intensive statistics (CIS) resampling such as the bootstrap. Probable maximum values are also incorporated into the analysis for extreme events larger than a design level of flood control. Traditional parametric frequency analysis methods of extreme values include the following steps: Step 1: Collecting and checking extreme-value data; Step 2: Enumerating probability distributions that would be fitted well to the data; Step 3: Parameter estimation; Step 4: Testing goodness of fit; Step 5: Checking the variability of quantile (T-year event) estimates by the jackknife resampling method; and Step_6: Selection of the best distribution (final model). The non-parametric method (NPM) proposed here can skip Steps 2, 3, 4 and 6. Comparing traditional parameter methods (PM) with the NPM, this paper shows that PM often underestimates 100-year quantiles for annual maximum rainfall samples with records of more than 100 years. Overestimation examples are also demonstrated. The bootstrap resampling can do bias correction for the NPM and can also give the estimation accuracy as the bootstrap standard error. This NPM has advantages to avoid various difficulties in above-mentioned steps in the traditional PM. Probable maximum events are also incorporated into the NPM as an upper bound of the hydrological variable. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) can be a new parameter value combined with the NPM. An idea how to incorporate these values into frequency analysis is proposed for better management of disasters that exceed the design level. The idea stimulates more integrated approach by geoscientists and statisticians as well as encourages practitioners to consider the worst cases of disasters in their disaster management planning and practices.

  2. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

    Kinney, Justin B


    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

  3. Statistical analysis of the Lognormal-Pareto distribution using Probability Weighted Moments and Maximum Likelihood

    Marco Bee


    This paper deals with the estimation of the lognormal-Pareto and the lognormal-Generalized Pareto mixture distributions. The log-likelihood function is discontinuous, so that Maximum Likelihood Estimation is not asymptotically optimal. For this reason, we develop an alternative method based on Probability Weighted Moments. We show that the standard version of the method can be applied to the first distribution, but not to the latter. Thus, in the lognormal- Generalized Pareto case, we work ou...

  4. Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

    Klein, Iris M.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Frigon, Anne; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick


    Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

  5. The effect of coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models on probable maximum flood estimation

    Felder, Guido; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf


    Deterministic rainfall-runoff modelling usually assumes stationary hydrological system, as model parameters are calibrated with and therefore dependant on observed data. However, runoff processes are probably not stationary in the case of a probable maximum flood (PMF) where discharge greatly exceeds observed flood peaks. Developing hydrodynamic models and using them to build coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic models can potentially improve the plausibility of PMF estimations. This study aims to assess the potential benefits and constraints of coupled modelling compared to standard deterministic hydrologic modelling when it comes to PMF estimation. The two modelling approaches are applied using a set of 100 spatio-temporal probable maximum precipitation (PMP) distribution scenarios. The resulting hydrographs, the resulting peak discharges as well as the reliability and the plausibility of the estimates are evaluated. The discussion of the results shows that coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models substantially improves the physical plausibility of PMF modelling, although both modelling approaches lead to PMF estimations for the catchment outlet that fall within a similar range. Using a coupled model is particularly suggested in cases where considerable flood-prone areas are situated within a catchment.

  6. Cholesterol modulates open probability and desensitization of NMDA receptors

    Korinek, Miloslav; Vyklicky, Vojtech; Borovska, Jirina; Lichnerova, Katarina; Kaniakova, Martina; Krausova, Barbora; Krusek, Jan; Balik, Ales; Smejkalova, Tereza; Horak, Martin; Vyklicky, Ladislav


    NMDA receptors (NMDARs) are glutamate-gated ion channels that mediate excitatory neurotransmission in the CNS. Although these receptors are in direct contact with plasma membrane, lipid–NMDAR interactions are little understood. In the present study, we aimed at characterizing the effect of cholesterol on the ionotropic glutamate receptors. Whole-cell current responses induced by fast application of NMDA in cultured rat cerebellar granule cells (CGCs) were almost abolished (reduced to 3%) and the relative degree of receptor desensitization was increased (by seven-fold) after acute cholesterol depletion by methyl-β-cyclodextrin. Both of these effects were fully reversible by cholesterol repletion. By contrast, the responses mediated by AMPA/kainate receptors were not affected by cholesterol depletion. Similar results were obtained in CGCs after chronic inhibition of cholesterol biosynthesis by simvastatin and acute enzymatic cholesterol degradation to 4-cholesten-3-one by cholesterol oxidase. Fluorescence anisotropy measurements showed that membrane fluidity increased after methyl-β-cyclodextrin pretreatment. However, no change in fluidity was observed after cholesterol enzymatic degradation, suggesting that the effect of cholesterol on NMDARs is not mediated by changes in membrane fluidity. Our data show that diminution of NMDAR responses by cholesterol depletion is the result of a reduction of the open probability, whereas the increase in receptor desensitization is the result of an increase in the rate constant of entry into the desensitized state. Surface NMDAR population, agonist affinity, single-channel conductance and open time were not altered in cholesterol-depleted CGCs. The results of our experiments show that cholesterol is a strong endogenous modulator of NMDARs. Key points NMDA receptors (NMDARs) are tetrameric cation channels permeable to calcium; they mediate excitatory synaptic transmission in the CNS and their excessive activation can lead to

  7. Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at the Kielce Upland (Poland) using meteorological method

    Suligowski, Roman


    Probable Maximum Precipitation based upon the physical mechanisms of precipitation formation at the Kielce Upland. This estimation stems from meteorological analysis of extremely high precipitation events, which occurred in the area between 1961 and 2007 causing serious flooding from rivers that drain the entire Kielce Upland. Meteorological situation has been assessed drawing on the synoptic maps, baric topography charts, satellite and radar images as well as the results of meteorological observations derived from surface weather observation stations. Most significant elements of this research include the comparison between distinctive synoptic situations over Europe and subsequent determination of typical rainfall generating mechanism. This allows the author to identify the source areas of air masses responsible for extremely high precipitation at the Kielce Upland. Analysis of the meteorological situations showed, that the source areas for humid air masses which cause the largest rainfalls at the Kielce Upland are the area of northern Adriatic Sea and the north-eastern coast of the Black Sea. Flood hazard at the Kielce Upland catchments was triggered by daily precipitation of over 60 mm. The highest representative dew point temperature in source areas of warm air masses (these responsible for high precipitation at the Kielce Upland) exceeded 20 degrees Celsius with a maximum of 24.9 degrees Celsius while precipitable water amounted to 80 mm. The value of precipitable water is also used for computation of factors featuring the system, namely the mass transformation factor and the system effectiveness factor. The mass transformation factor is computed based on precipitable water in the feeding mass and precipitable water in the source area. The system effectiveness factor (as the indicator of the maximum inflow velocity and the maximum velocity in the zone of front or ascending currents, forced by orography) is computed from the quotient of precipitable water in

  8. Inferring Pairwise Interactions from Biological Data Using Maximum-Entropy Probability Models.

    Richard R Stein


    Full Text Available Maximum entropy-based inference methods have been successfully used to infer direct interactions from biological datasets such as gene expression data or sequence ensembles. Here, we review undirected pairwise maximum-entropy probability models in two categories of data types, those with continuous and categorical random variables. As a concrete example, we present recently developed inference methods from the field of protein contact prediction and show that a basic set of assumptions leads to similar solution strategies for inferring the model parameters in both variable types. These parameters reflect interactive couplings between observables, which can be used to predict global properties of the biological system. Such methods are applicable to the important problems of protein 3-D structure prediction and association of gene-gene networks, and they enable potential applications to the analysis of gene alteration patterns and to protein design.

  9. Inferring Pairwise Interactions from Biological Data Using Maximum-Entropy Probability Models.

    Stein, Richard R; Marks, Debora S; Sander, Chris


    Maximum entropy-based inference methods have been successfully used to infer direct interactions from biological datasets such as gene expression data or sequence ensembles. Here, we review undirected pairwise maximum-entropy probability models in two categories of data types, those with continuous and categorical random variables. As a concrete example, we present recently developed inference methods from the field of protein contact prediction and show that a basic set of assumptions leads to similar solution strategies for inferring the model parameters in both variable types. These parameters reflect interactive couplings between observables, which can be used to predict global properties of the biological system. Such methods are applicable to the important problems of protein 3-D structure prediction and association of gene-gene networks, and they enable potential applications to the analysis of gene alteration patterns and to protein design.

  10. Three-dimensional super-resolution structured illumination microscopy with maximum a posteriori probability image estimation.

    Lukeš, Tomáš; Křížek, Pavel; Švindrych, Zdeněk; Benda, Jakub; Ovesný, Martin; Fliegel, Karel; Klíma, Miloš; Hagen, Guy M


    We introduce and demonstrate a new high performance image reconstruction method for super-resolution structured illumination microscopy based on maximum a posteriori probability estimation (MAP-SIM). Imaging performance is demonstrated on a variety of fluorescent samples of different thickness, labeling density and noise levels. The method provides good suppression of out of focus light, improves spatial resolution, and allows reconstruction of both 2D and 3D images of cells even in the case of weak signals. The method can be used to process both optical sectioning and super-resolution structured illumination microscopy data to create high quality super-resolution images.

  11. Maximum collision probability considering variable size, shape, and orientation of covariance ellipse

    Bai, Xian-Zong; Ma, Chao-Wei; Chen, Lei; Tang, Guo-Jin


    When engaging in the maximum collision probability (Pcmax) analysis for short-term conjunctions between two orbiting objects, it is important to clarify and understand the assumptions for obtaining Pcmax. Based on Chan's analytical formulae and analysis of covariance ellipse's variation of orientation, shape, and size in the two-dimensional conjunction plane, this paper proposes a clear and comprehensive analysis of maximum collision probability when considering these variables. Eight situations will be considered when calculating Pcmax according to the varied orientation, shape, and size of the covariance ellipse. Three of the situations are not practical or meaningful; the remaining ones were completely or partially discussed in some of the previous works. These situations are discussed with uniform definitions and symbols and they are derived independently in this paper. The consequences are compared and validated by the results from previous works. Finally, a practical conjunction event is presented as a test case to demonstrate the effectiveness of methodology. Comparison of the Pcmax presented in this paper with the empirical results from the curve or surface calculated by numerical method indicates that the relative error of Pcmax is less than 0.0039%.

  12. Level set segmentation of medical images based on local region statistics and maximum a posteriori probability.

    Cui, Wenchao; Wang, Yi; Lei, Tao; Fan, Yangyu; Feng, Yan


    This paper presents a variational level set method for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images with intensity inhomogeneity. In our model, the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different tissue in local regions are characterized by Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. According to maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) and Bayes' rule, we first derive a local objective function for image intensities in a neighborhood around each pixel. Then this local objective function is integrated with respect to the neighborhood center over the entire image domain to give a global criterion. In level set framework, this global criterion defines an energy in terms of the level set functions that represent a partition of the image domain and a bias field that accounts for the intensity inhomogeneity of the image. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved via a level set evolution process. Experimental results for synthetic and real images show desirable performances of our method.

  13. Probable maximum precipitation 24 hours estimation: A case study of Zanjan province of Iran

    Azim Shirdeli


    Full Text Available One of the primary concerns in designing civil structures such as water storage dams and irrigation and drainage networks is to find economic scale based on possibility of natural incidents such as floods, earthquake, etc. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP is one of well known methods, which helps design a civil structure, properly. In this paper, we study the maximum one-day precipitation using 17 to 50 years of information in 13 stations located in province of Zanjan, Iran. The proposed study of this paper uses two Hershfield methods, where the first one yields 18.17 to 18.48 for precipitation where the PMP24 was between 170.14 mm and 255.28 mm. The second method reports precipitation between 2.29 and 4.95 while PMP24 was between 62.33 mm and 92.08 mm. In addition, when the out of range data were deleted from the study of the second method, precipitation rates were calculated between 2.29 and 4.31 while PMP24 was between 76.08 mm and 117.28 mm. The preliminary results indicate that the second Hershfield method provide more stable results than the first one.

  14. A New Maximum Entropy Probability Function for the Surface Elevation of Nonlinear Sea Waves

    ZHANG Li-zhen; XU De-lun


    Based on the maximum entropy principle a new probability density function (PDF) f(x) for the surface elevation of nonlinear sea waves, X, is derived through performing a coordinate transform of X and solving a variation problem subject to three constraint conditions of f(x). Compared with the maximum entropy PDFs presented previously, the new PDF has the following merits: (1) it has four parameters to be determined and hence can give more refined fit to observed data and has wider suitability for nonlinear waves in different conditions; (2) these parameters are expressed in terms of distribution moments of X in a relatively simple form and hence are easy to be determined from observed data; (3) the PDF is free of the restriction of weak nonlinearity and possible to be used for sea waves in complicated conditions, such as those in shallow waters with complicated topography; and (4) the PDF is simple in form and hence convenient for theoretical and practical uses. Laboratory wind-wave experiments have been conducted to test the competence of the new PDF for the surface elevation of nonlinear waves. The experimental results manifest that the new PDF gives somewhat better fit to the laboratory wind-wave data than the well-known Gram-Charlier PDF and beta PDF.

  15. Scaling of maximum probability density functions of velocity and temperature increments in turbulent systems

    Huang, Y X; Zhou, Q; Qiu, X; Shang, X D; Lu, Z M; Liu, and Y L


    In this paper, we introduce a new way to estimate the scaling parameter of a self-similar process by considering the maximum probability density function (pdf) of tis increments. We prove this for $H$-self-similar processes in general and experimentally investigate it for turbulent velocity and temperature increments. We consider turbulent velocity database from an experimental homogeneous and nearly isotropic turbulent channel flow, and temperature data set obtained near the sidewall of a Rayleigh-B\\'{e}nard convection cell, where the turbulent flow is driven by buoyancy. For the former database, it is found that the maximum value of increment pdf $p_{\\max}(\\tau)$ is in a good agreement with lognormal distribution. We also obtain a scaling exponent $\\alpha\\simeq 0.37$, which is consistent with the scaling exponent for the first-order structure function reported in other studies. For the latter one, we obtain a scaling exponent $\\alpha_{\\theta}\\simeq0.33$. This index value is consistent with the Kolmogorov-Ob...

  16. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

    Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul


    The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

  17. Estimation of the Probable Maximum Flood for a Small Lowland River in Poland

    Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.


    The planning, designe and use of hydrotechnical structures often requires the assesment of maximu flood potentials. The most common term applied to this upper limit of flooding is the probable maximum flood (PMF). The PMP/UH (probable maximum precipitation/unit hydrograph) method has been used in the study to predict PMF from a small agricultural lowland river basin of Zagozdzonka (left tributary of Vistula river) in Poland. The river basin, located about 100 km south of Warsaw, with an area - upstream the gauge of Plachty - of 82 km2, has been investigated by Department of Water Engineering and Environmenal Restoration of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW since 1962. Over 40-year flow record was used in previous investigation for predicting T-year flood discharge (Banasik et al., 2003). The objective here was to estimate the PMF using the PMP/UH method and to compare the results with the 100-year flood. A new relation of depth-duration curve of PMP for the local climatic condition has been developed based on Polish maximum observed rainfall data (Ozga-Zielinska & Ozga-Zielinski, 2003). Exponential formula, with the value of exponent of 0.47, i.e. close to the exponent in formula for world PMP and also in the formula of PMP for Great Britain (Wilson, 1993), gives the rainfall depth about 40% lower than the Wilson's one. The effective rainfall (runoff volume) has been estimated from the PMP of various duration using the CN-method (USDA-SCS, 1986). The CN value as well as parameters of the IUH model (Nash, 1957) have been established from the 27 rainfall-runoff events, recorded in the river basin in the period 1980-2004. Varibility of the parameter values with the size of the events will be discussed in the paper. The results of the analyse have shown that the peak discharge of the PMF is 4.5 times larger then 100-year flood, and volume ratio of the respective direct hydrographs caused by rainfall events of critical duration is 4.0. References 1.Banasik K

  18. Maximum Entropy Estimation of Probability Distribution of Variables in Higher Dimensions from Lower Dimensional Data

    Jayajit Das '


    Full Text Available A common statistical situation concerns inferring an unknown distribution Q(x from a known distribution P(y, where X (dimension n, and Y (dimension m have a known functional relationship. Most commonly, n ≤ m, and the task is relatively straightforward for well-defined functional relationships. For example, if Y1 and Y2 are independent random variables, each uniform on [0, 1], one can determine the distribution of X = Y1 + Y2; here m = 2 and n = 1. However, biological and physical situations can arise where n > m and the functional relation Y→X is non-unique. In general, in the absence of additional information, there is no unique solution to Q in those cases. Nevertheless, one may still want to draw some inferences about Q. To this end, we propose a novel maximum entropy (MaxEnt approach that estimates Q(x based only on the available data, namely, P(y. The method has the additional advantage that one does not need to explicitly calculate the Lagrange multipliers. In this paper we develop the approach, for both discrete and continuous probability distributions, and demonstrate its validity. We give an intuitive justification as well, and we illustrate with examples.

  19. Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

    Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.


    Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

  20. Level Set Segmentation of Medical Images Based on Local Region Statistics and Maximum a Posteriori Probability

    Wenchao Cui


    Full Text Available This paper presents a variational level set method for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images with intensity inhomogeneity. In our model, the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different tissue in local regions are characterized by Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. According to maximum a posteriori probability (MAP and Bayes’ rule, we first derive a local objective function for image intensities in a neighborhood around each pixel. Then this local objective function is integrated with respect to the neighborhood center over the entire image domain to give a global criterion. In level set framework, this global criterion defines an energy in terms of the level set functions that represent a partition of the image domain and a bias field that accounts for the intensity inhomogeneity of the image. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved via a level set evolution process. Experimental results for synthetic and real images show desirable performances of our method.

  1. An empirical method for estimating probability density functions of gridded daily minimum and maximum temperature

    Lussana, C.


    The presented work focuses on the investigation of gridded daily minimum (TN) and maximum (TX) temperature probability density functions (PDFs) with the intent of both characterising a region and detecting extreme values. The empirical PDFs estimation procedure has been realised using the most recent years of gridded temperature analysis fields available at ARPA Lombardia, in Northern Italy. The spatial interpolation is based on an implementation of Optimal Interpolation using observations from a dense surface network of automated weather stations. An effort has been made to identify both the time period and the spatial areas with a stable data density otherwise the elaboration could be influenced by the unsettled station distribution. The PDF used in this study is based on the Gaussian distribution, nevertheless it is designed to have an asymmetrical (skewed) shape in order to enable distinction between warming and cooling events. Once properly defined the occurrence of extreme events, it is possible to straightforwardly deliver to the users the information on a local-scale in a concise way, such as: TX extremely cold/hot or TN extremely cold/hot.

  2. Bootstrap, Bayesian probability and maximum likelihood mapping: exploring new tools for comparative genome analyses

    Gogarten J Peter


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Horizontal gene transfer (HGT played an important role in shaping microbial genomes. In addition to genes under sporadic selection, HGT also affects housekeeping genes and those involved in information processing, even ribosomal RNA encoding genes. Here we describe tools that provide an assessment and graphic illustration of the mosaic nature of microbial genomes. Results We adapted the Maximum Likelihood (ML mapping to the analyses of all detected quartets of orthologous genes found in four genomes. We have automated the assembly and analyses of these quartets of orthologs given the selection of four genomes. We compared the ML-mapping approach to more rigorous Bayesian probability and Bootstrap mapping techniques. The latter two approaches appear to be more conservative than the ML-mapping approach, but qualitatively all three approaches give equivalent results. All three tools were tested on mitochondrial genomes, which presumably were inherited as a single linkage group. Conclusions In some instances of interphylum relationships we find nearly equal numbers of quartets strongly supporting the three possible topologies. In contrast, our analyses of genome quartets containing the cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. indicate that a large part of the cyanobacterial genome is related to that of low GC Gram positives. Other groups that had been suggested as sister groups to the cyanobacteria contain many fewer genes that group with the Synechocystis orthologs. Interdomain comparisons of genome quartets containing the archaeon Halobacterium sp. revealed that Halobacterium sp. shares more genes with Bacteria that live in the same environment than with Bacteria that are more closely related based on rRNA phylogeny . Many of these genes encode proteins involved in substrate transport and metabolism and in information storage and processing. The performed analyses demonstrate that relationships among prokaryotes cannot be accurately

  3. Slider--maximum use of probability information for alignment of short sequence reads and SNP detection.

    Malhis, Nawar; Butterfield, Yaron S N; Ester, Martin; Jones, Steven J M


    A plethora of alignment tools have been created that are designed to best fit different types of alignment conditions. While some of these are made for aligning Illumina Sequence Analyzer reads, none of these are fully utilizing its probability (prb) output. In this article, we will introduce a new alignment approach (Slider) that reduces the alignment problem space by utilizing each read base's probabilities given in the prb files. Compared with other aligners, Slider has higher alignment accuracy and efficiency. In addition, given that Slider matches bases with probabilities other than the most probable, it significantly reduces the percentage of base mismatches. The result is that its SNP predictions are more accurate than other SNP prediction approaches used today that start from the most probable sequence, including those using base quality.

  4. A general formula for computing maximum proportion correct scores in various psychophysical paradigms with arbitrary probability distributions of stimulus observations.

    Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe


    Proportion correct (Pc) is a fundamental measure of task performance in psychophysics. The maximum Pc score that can be achieved by an optimal (maximum-likelihood) observer in a given task is of both theoretical and practical importance, because it sets an upper limit on human performance. Within the framework of signal detection theory, analytical solutions for computing the maximum Pc score have been established for several common experimental paradigms under the assumption of Gaussian additive internal noise. However, as the scope of applications of psychophysical signal detection theory expands, the need is growing for psychophysicists to compute maximum Pc scores for situations involving non-Gaussian (internal or stimulus-induced) noise. In this article, we provide a general formula for computing the maximum Pc in various psychophysical experimental paradigms for arbitrary probability distributions of sensory activity. Moreover, easy-to-use MATLAB code implementing the formula is provided. Practical applications of the formula are illustrated, and its accuracy is evaluated, for two paradigms and two types of probability distributions (uniform and Gaussian). The results demonstrate that Pc scores computed using the formula remain accurate even for continuous probability distributions, as long as the conversion from continuous probability density functions to discrete probability mass functions is supported by a sufficiently high sampling resolution. We hope that the exposition in this article, and the freely available MATLAB code, facilitates calculations of maximum performance for a wider range of experimental situations, as well as explorations of the impact of different assumptions concerning internal-noise distributions on maximum performance in psychophysical experiments.

  5. Return Probability of the Open Quantum Random Walk with Time-Dependence

    Clement Ampadu


    We study the open quantum random walk (OQRW) with time-dependence on the one-dimensional lattice space and obtain the associated limit distribution.As an application we study the return probability of the OQRW.We also ask,"What is the average time for the return probability of the OQRW?"

  6. Application of maximum likelihood to direct methods: the probability density function of the triple-phase sums. XI.

    Rius, Jordi


    The maximum-likelihood method is applied to direct methods to derive a more general probability density function of the triple-phase sums which is capable of predicting negative values. This study also proves that maximization of the origin-free modulus sum function S yields, within the limitations imposed by the assumed approximations, the maximum-likelihood estimates of the phases. It thus represents the formal theoretical justification of the S function that was initially derived from Patterson-function arguments [Rius (1993). Acta Cryst. A49, 406-409].

  7. Maximum likelihood estimates with order restrictions on probabilities and odds ratios: A geometric programming approach

    D. L. Bricker


    Full Text Available The problem of assigning cell probabilities to maximize a multinomial likelihood with order restrictions on the probabilies and/or restrictions on the local odds ratios is modeled as a posynomial geometric program (GP, a class of nonlinear optimization problems with a well-developed duality theory and collection of algorithms. (Local odds ratios provide a measure of association between categorical random variables. A constrained multinomial MLE example from the literature is solved, and the quality of the solution is compared with that obtained by the iterative method of El Barmi and Dykstra, which is based upon Fenchel duality. Exploiting the proximity of the GP model of MLE problems to linear programming (LP problems, we also describe as an alternative, in the absence of special-purpose GP software, an easily implemented successive LP approximation method for solving this class of MLE problems using one of the readily available LP solvers.

  8. probably


    【说词】1. He can probably tell us the truth.2. Will it rain this afternoong ? Probably【解语】作副词,意为“大概、或许”,表示可能性很大,通常指根据目前情况作出积极推测或判断;

  9. Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada

    Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris M.; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick; Frigon, Anne; Ratté-Fortin, Claudie


    Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate PMFs and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating PMFs without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that CC will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent PMP estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the PMPs throughout the current century compared to the recent past.

  10. Maximum jaw opening capacity in adolescents in relation to general joint mobility.

    Westling, L; Helkimo, E


    Mandibular jaw opening was related with general joint mobility in a non-patient adolescent group. The angular rotation of the mandible at maximum jaw opening was slightly larger in females than in males and significantly larger in hypermobile individuals. No significant relationship between linear measuring of maximal mandibular opening capacity and peripheral joint mobility was found either at active (AROM) or at passive range of mandibular opening (PROM). PROM was strongly correlated to the mandibular length. Clinical signs in the great jaw closer muscles could not be associated to decreased AROM. The mean value of the difference between PROM-AROM (DPA) was 1.2 mm. Frequent clenching and/or grinding was correlated to increased DPA only in hypermobile adolescents (r = 0.49***). Those with DPA exceeding 5mm had all reciprocal clicking.

  11. The effect of maximum open height on operating characteristics of polymer injected pump poppet valve

    Zhang, S. C.; Chen, X. D.; Deng, H. Y.


    Reciprocating polymer injected pump is the key injection equipment of tertiary oil recovery, the poppet valve in it exists the problem of large vibration noise, low efficiency and short life when transportation high viscosity medium. So the CFD technique is adopted to simulate and analyze the inner flow fields of fluid end poppet valve. According to the practical structure of the poppet valve, a simplified 2D axis-symmetry geometry model of the flow field is established. Combined with pump speed, plunger stroke and plunger diameter, given the boundary condition of the inlet valve, then the numerical simulation of flow field under six different maximum open heights is done depending on software Fluent. The relationship between open height to valve gap flow velocity, hydraulic loss and lag angle is obtained. The results indicate that, with the increase of open height, the valve gap flow velocity decreases, inlet outlet pressure differential decreases and hydraulic loss decreases. But the lag angle is continuously increasing with the increase of maximum open height, the valve has a good work performance when the open height is 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3mm, but when it reaches 3.5mm, the valve performance becomes poor. The study can offer certain reference to understand operating characteristics of poppet valve, help to reduce the hydraulic losses and raise volume efficiency of the pump.

  12. Estimation of probable maximum typhoon wave for coastal nuclear power plant%滨海核电可能最大台风浪的推算



    采用当前国际流行的第三代波浪模式SWAN探讨了滨海核电工程可能最大台风浪的计算,并分析了可能最大台风浪与相伴随的可能最大风暴潮成长规律.分析得可能最大台风浪通常滞后可能最大风暴潮增水峰值,推算得到的可能最大台风浪高于遮浪海洋站观测到的最大波高,为滨海核电工程可能最大台风浪的推算提供参考.%The third-generation wave model, SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore), was employed to estimate the probable maximum typhoon wave at a coastal engineering area. The relationship between the development of probable maximum typhoon wave and that of probable maximum storm surge was investigated. It is shown that the probable maximum typhoon wave usually occurs later than the probable maximum storm surge. The estimated probable maximum typhoon wave is higher than the historical observational maximum wave height data of Zhelang station. The approach utilized in this study to estimate probable maximum typhoon wave could provide valuable information in design of coastal engineering.

  13. Land Use Land Cover Impact on Probable Maximum Flood and Sedimentation for Artificial Reservoirs: A Case Study in Western US

    Yigzaw, W. Y.; Hossain, F.


    Unanticipated peak inflows that can exceed the inflow design flood (IDF) for spillways and result in possible storage loss in reservoirs from increased sedimentation rates lead to a greater risk for downstream floods. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) are mostly used to determine IDF. Any possible change of PMP and PMF due to future land use and land cover (LULC) change therefore requires a methodical investigation. However, the consequential sediment yield, due to altered precipitation and flow patterns into the reservoir has not been addressed in literature. Thus, this study answers the following question: "What is the combined impact of a modified PMP on PMF and sediment yield for an artificial reservoir? The Owyhee dam of Owyhee River watershed (ORW) in Oregon is selected as a case study area for understanding the impact of LULC change on PMF and sedimentation rates. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) is used for simulating stream flow (PMF) and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate sediment yield over ORW as a result of change in precipitation intensity and LULC. Scenarios that represent pre-Owyhee dam (Pre-Dam) and post Owyhee dam (Non-Irrigation, Control, 1992, 2001, 2006) are used to simulate PMF's and consequential sediment yield. Peak PMF result for Pre-Dam scenarios is found to increase by 26m3s-1 (1%) and 81m3s-1 (3%) from Non-Irrigation and Control scenario, respectively. Considering only LULC change, sediment yield decreased over ORW due to the transformation of LULC from grassland to shrubland (from Pre-Dam period to the post-Dam years). However, increase in precipitation intensity caused a significant (0.1% storage loss over 21days storm period) increase in sediment yield resulting in largely reservoir sedimentation. This study underscores the need to consider future impact of LULC change on IDF calculation as well as sedimentation rates for more robust reservoir operations and planning.

  14. The effect of traffic light on accident probability in open and periodic boundaries system

    Mhirech, Abdelaziz; Alaoui-Ismaili, Assia


    In this paper we numerically study the dependence of car accident probability Pac, per site and per time step on cycle time T of traffic light, both in open and periodic boundaries system. In this study one traffic light is placed in the middle of the system. This work is based on Nagel and Schreckenberg (NaSch) model (Nagel and Schreckenberg (1992)) in parallel dynamics. The Pac dependence on T and the (α, β) phase diagrams are established. α and β are the injecting and extracting rates of cars in the traffic lane respectively. The increase of the cycle time light T causes an important decrease of the accident probability Pac both in the open and periodic cases.

  15. A Method to Determine Generalized Basic Probability Assignment in the Open World

    Wen Jiang


    Full Text Available Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (D-S theory has been widely used in many information fusion systems since it was proposed by Dempster and extended by Shafer. However, how to determine the basic probability assignment (BPA, which is the main and first step in D-S theory, is still an open issue, especially when the given environment is in an open world, which means the frame of discernment is incomplete. In this paper, a method to determine generalized basic probability assignment in an open world is proposed. Frame of discernment in an open world is established first, and then the triangular fuzzy number models to identify target in the proposed frame of discernment are established. Pessimistic strategy based on the differentiation degree between model and sample is defined to yield the BPAs for known targets. If the sum of all the BPAs of known targets is over one, then they will be normalized and the BPA of unknown target is assigned to 0; otherwise the BPA of unknown target is equal to 1 minus the sum of all the known targets BPAs. IRIS classification examples illustrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

    Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Mei, Rui; Kabela, Erik D.; Gangrade, Sudershan; Naz, Bibi S.; Preston, Benjamin L.; Singh, Nagendra; Anantharaj, Valentine G.


    Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserve more in-depth examination.

  17. A novel approach to estimate the eruptive potential and probability in open conduit volcanoes.

    De Gregorio, Sofia; Camarda, Marco


    In open conduit volcanoes, volatile-rich magma continuously enters into the feeding system nevertheless the eruptive activity occurs intermittently. From a practical perspective, the continuous steady input of magma in the feeding system is not able to produce eruptive events alone, but rather surplus of magma inputs are required to trigger the eruptive activity. The greater the amount of surplus of magma within the feeding system, the higher is the eruptive probability.Despite this observation, eruptive potential evaluations are commonly based on the regular magma supply, and in eruptive probability evaluations, generally any magma input has the same weight. Conversely, herein we present a novel approach based on the quantification of surplus of magma progressively intruded in the feeding system. To quantify the surplus of magma, we suggest to process temporal series of measurable parameters linked to the magma supply. We successfully performed a practical application on Mt Etna using the soil CO2 flux recorded over ten years.

  18. Spatial vent opening probability map of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain)

    Becerril, Laura; Cappello, Annalisa; Galindo, Inés; Neri, Marco; Del Negro, Ciro


    The assessment of the probable spatial distribution of new eruptions is useful to manage and reduce the volcanic risk. It can be achieved in different ways, but it becomes especially hard when dealing with volcanic areas less studied, poorly monitored and characterized by a low frequent activity, as El Hierro. Even though it is the youngest of the Canary Islands, before the 2011 eruption in the "Las Calmas Sea", El Hierro had been the least studied volcanic Island of the Canaries, with more historically devoted attention to La Palma, Tenerife and Lanzarote. We propose a probabilistic method to build the susceptibility map of El Hierro, i.e. the spatial distribution of vent opening for future eruptions, based on the mathematical analysis of the volcano-structural data collected mostly on the Island and, secondly, on the submerged part of the volcano, up to a distance of ~10-20 km from the coast. The volcano-structural data were collected through new fieldwork measurements, bathymetric information, and analysis of geological maps, orthophotos and aerial photographs. They have been divided in different datasets and converted into separate and weighted probability density functions, which were then included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to produce the volcanic susceptibility map. Future eruptive events on El Hierro is mainly concentrated on the rifts zones, extending also beyond the shoreline. The major probabilities to host new eruptions are located on the distal parts of the South and West rifts, with the highest probability reached in the south-western area of the West rift. High probabilities are also observed in the Northeast and South rifts, and the submarine parts of the rifts. This map represents the first effort to deal with the volcanic hazard at El Hierro and can be a support tool for decision makers in land planning, emergency plans and civil defence actions.

  19. Maximum mouth opening and trismus in 143 patients treated for oral cancer: A 1-year prospective study

    Wetzels, J.G.H.; Merkx, M.A.W.; Haan, A.F.J. de; Koole, R.; Speksnijder, C.M.


    BACKGROUND: Patients with oral cancer can develop restricted mouth opening (trismus) because of the oncologic treatment. METHODS: Maximum mouth opening (MMO) was measured in 143 patients shortly before treatment and 0, 6, and 12 months posttreatment, and the results were analyzed using a linear

  20. Stellar Open Clusters' Membership Probabilities: an N-Dimensional Geometrical Approach

    Sampedro, Laura


    We present a new geometrical method aimed at determining the members of open clusters. The methodology estimates, in an N-dimensional space, the membership probabilities by means of the distances between every star and the cluster central overdensity. It can handle different sets of variables, which have to satisfy the simple condition of being more densely distributed for the cluster members than for the field stars (as positions, proper motions, radial velocities and/or parallaxes are). Unlike other existing techniques, this fact makes the method more flexible and so can be easily applied to different datasets. To quantify how the method identifies the clus- ter members, we design series of realistic simulations recreating sky regions in both position and proper motion subspaces populated by clusters and field stars. The re- sults, using different simulated datasets (N = 1, 2 and 4 variables), show that the method properly recovers a very high fraction of simulated cluster members, with a low number of misc...

  1. Probability hazard map for future vent opening at Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy).

    Brancato, Alfonso; Tusa, Giuseppina; Coltelli, Mauro; Proietti, Cristina


    shows a tendency to concentrate along the NE and S rifts, as well as Valle del Bove, increasing the difference in probability between these areas and the rest of the volcano edifice. It is worthy notice that a higher significance is still evident along the W rift, even if not comparable with the ones of the above mentioned areas. References Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Gasparini P., Newhall C. and Boschi E.; 2004: Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB00315U. Marzocchi W., Sandri, L. and Selva, J.; 2008: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 623 - 632, doi: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y. Selva J., Orsi G., Di Vito M.A., Marzocchi W. And Sandri L.; 2012: Probability hazard mapfor future vent opening atthe Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 497 - 510, doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2.

  2. A probable pre-main sequence chemically peculiar star in the open cluster Stock 16

    Netopil, M; Paunzen, E; Zwintz, K; Pintado, O I; Bagnulo, S


    We used the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph of the ESO-Very Large Telescope to obtain a high resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio spectrum of Stock 16-12, an early-type star which previous Delta-a photometric observations suggest being a chemically peculiar (CP) star. We used spectral synthesis to perform a detailed abundance analysis obtaining an effective temperature of 8400 +/- 400 K, a surface gravity of 4.1 +/- 0.4, a microturbulence velocity of 3.4 +0.7/-0.3 km/s, and a projected rotational velocity of 68 +/- 4 km/s. We provide photometric and spectroscopic evidence showing the star is most likely a member of the young Stock 16 open cluster (age 3-8 Myr). The probable cluster membership, the star's position in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, and the found infrared excess strongly suggest the star is still in the pre-main-sequence (PMS) phase. We used PMS evolutionary tracks to determine the stellar mass, which ranges between 1.95 and 2.3 Msun, depending upon the adopted spectroscopic o...

  3. 玉米秆热解的最概然机理%Maximum probability mechanisms of pyrolysis of corn stalk

    李小民; 林其钊


    The mechanisms of pyrolysis of corn stalk were investigated by means of both model method and model-free method, and following the idea of dual extrapolation method at the same time. Firstly, a thermogravimetry experiment was performed to investigate the process of pyrolysis of corn stalk, in nitrogen gas and at various heating rates. Secondly, an analysis, combining model method and model-free method, was utilized to understand the mechanisms of pyrolysis of corn stalk. The several mechanisms were screened by means of the Popescu method. Then, the kinetic parameters are obtained by the integral formula proposed by Tang and the iso-conversion methods respectively. Moreover, the aforementioned results are all extrapolated following the idea of dual extrapolation method. It is found from the comparison that 2 mechanisms are both probable to satisfy pyrolysis of corn stalk. Furthermore, a preliminary comparison was carried out between the results from the two models and the experimental data. According to the comparison, combined the status of pyrolysis research of biomass, it was concluded that the mechanisms for corn stalk follow reaction of 2. 5-order. And it was obtained that the activation energy, 97. 72 kJ · mol-1 , and the frequency factor, 3661231 s-1. Finally, an analysis was conducted concerning the discrepancy between the calculation and the experiment.

  4. Maximum Magnitude and Probabilities of Induced Earthquakes in California Geothermal Fields: Applications for a Science-Based Decision Framework

    Weiser, Deborah Anne

    Induced seismicity is occurring at increasing rates around the country. Brodsky and Lajoie (2013) and others have recognized anthropogenic quakes at a few geothermal fields in California. I use three techniques to assess if there are induced earthquakes in California geothermal fields; there are three sites with clear induced seismicity: Brawley, The Geysers, and Salton Sea. Moderate to strong evidence is found at Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, and Susanville. Little to no evidence is found for Heber and Wendel. I develop a set of tools to reduce or cope with the risk imposed by these earthquakes, and also to address uncertainties through simulations. I test if an earthquake catalog may be bounded by an upper magnitude limit. I address whether the earthquake record during pumping time is consistent with the past earthquake record, or if injection can explain all or some of the earthquakes. I also present ways to assess the probability of future earthquake occurrence based on past records. I summarize current legislation for eight states where induced earthquakes are of concern. Unlike tectonic earthquakes, the hazard from induced earthquakes has the potential to be modified. I discuss direct and indirect mitigation practices. I present a framework with scientific and communication techniques for assessing uncertainty, ultimately allowing more informed decisions to be made.

  5. Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

    Furbish, David J.; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan L.


    We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

  6. Maximum at ALS: A powerful tool to investigate open problems in micro and optoelectronics

    Lorusso, G.F.; Solak, H.; Singh, S.; Cerrina, F. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Center of X-ray Lithography; Batson, P.J.; Underwood, J.H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States). Center of X-ray Optics


    The authors present recent results obtained by MAXIMUM at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. MAXIMUM is a scanning photoemission microscope, based on a multilayer coated Schwarzschild objective. An electron energy analyzer collects the emitted photoelectrons to form an image as the sample itself is scanned. The microscope has been purposely designed to take advantage of the high brightness of the third generation synchrotron radiation sources, and its installation at ALS has been recently completed. The spatial resolution of 100 nm and the spectral resolution of 200 meV make the instrument an extremely interesting tool to investigate current problems in opto- and microelectronics. In order to illustrate the potential of MAXIMUM in these fields, the authors report new results obtained by studying the electromigration in Al-Cu lines and the Al segregation in AlGaN thin films.

  7. 负二项分布概率最大值的性质%The Characters of the Probability Maximum Value for Negative Binomial Distribution



    The character of probability maximum value for negative binomial distribution was explored. The probability maximum value for negative binomial distribution was a function of p and r, where p was the probability of success for each test, and r was the number of the first successful test. It was a mono-tonically increasing continuous function of p when r was given,only (r-1)/p was a integer, its derivative did not exist, and a monotone decreasing function of r when p was given.%负二项分布概率的最大值是每次试验成功的概率p和首次试验成功次数r的函数。对确定的r,该函数是p的单调上升的连续函数,仅当(r-1)/p是整数时不可导;对确定的p,该函数是r的单调下降函数。

  8. A systematic approach to selecting the best probability models for annual maximum rainfalls - A case study using data in Ontario (Canada)

    Nguyen, Truong-Huy; El Outayek, Sarah; Lim, Sun Hee; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van


    Many probability distributions have been developed to model the annual maximum rainfall series (AMS). However, there is no general agreement as to which distribution should be used due to the lack of a suitable evaluation method. This paper presents hence a general procedure for assessing systematically the performance of ten commonly used probability distributions in rainfall frequency analyses based on their descriptive as well as predictive abilities. This assessment procedure relies on an extensive set of graphical and numerical performance criteria to identify the most suitable models that could provide the most accurate and most robust extreme rainfall estimates. The proposed systematic assessment approach has been shown to be more efficient and more robust than the traditional model selection method based on only limited goodness-of-fit criteria. To test the feasibility of the proposed procedure, an illustrative application was carried out using 5-min, 1-h, and 24-h annual maximum rainfall data from a network of 21 raingages located in the Ontario region in Canada. Results have indicated that the GEV, GNO, and PE3 models were the best models for describing the distribution of daily and sub-daily annual maximum rainfalls in this region. The GEV distribution, however, was preferred to the GNO and PE3 because it was based on a more solid theoretical basis for representing the distribution of extreme random variables.

  9. Maximum mouth opening and trismus in 143 patients treated for oral cancer: a 1-year prospective study.

    Wetzels, Jan-Willem G H; Merkx, Matthias A W; de Haan, Anton F J; Koole, Ron; Speksnijder, Caroline M


    Patients with oral cancer can develop restricted mouth opening (trismus) because of the oncologic treatment. Maximum mouth opening (MMO) was measured in 143 patients shortly before treatment and 0, 6, and 12 months posttreatment, and the results were analyzed using a linear mixed-effects model. In every patient, MMO decreased after treatment. The patients who underwent surgery, recovered partially by 6 and 12 months after treatment, whereas the patients who received both surgery and radiotherapy or primary radiotherapy did not recover. Tumor location, tumor size, and alcohol consumption had independent effects on MMO. Having trismus (MMO trismus after oral cancer treatment. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Performance evaluation of open-graded epoxy asphalt concrete with two nominal maximum aggregate sizes

    罗桑; 钱振东; 薛永超


    Open-graded friction course (OGFC) is applied to pavement surfaces to increase driving safety under wet conditions, and recently, to reduce tire/pavement noise. The durability of OGFC, however, has been a concern since conventional OGFC mixes last typically less than ten years before major maintenance or rehabilitation is needed. This work investigates a new open-graded asphalt mixture that uses epoxy asphalt as binder to improve mix durability. One type of epoxy asphalt that has been successfully applied to dense-graded asphalt concrete for bridge deck paving was selected. A procedure of compacting the mix into slab specimens was developed and a series of laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of the new mix, including Cantabro loss, permeability, friction, shear strength, and wheel rutting tests. Results show superior overall performance of the open-graded epoxy asphalt mix compared to conventional open-graded asphalt mix. There are also preliminary indications that the OGFC mix with 4.75-mm NMAS gradation can improve the resistance performance to raveling, while the OGFC mix with 9.5-mm NMAS gradation can improve the performance of surface friction at a high slip speed.

  11. Performance evaluation of open-graded epoxy asphalt concrete with two nominal maximum aggregate sizes

    罗桑; 钱振东; 薛永超


    Open-graded friction course(OGFC) is applied to pavement surfaces to increase driving safety under wet conditions, and recently, to reduce tire/pavement noise. The durability of OGFC, however, has been a concern since conventional OGFC mixes last typically less than ten years before major maintenance or rehabilitation is needed. This work investigates a new open-graded asphalt mixture that uses epoxy asphalt as binder to improve mix durability. One type of epoxy asphalt that has been successfully applied to dense-graded asphalt concrete for bridge deck paving was selected. A procedure of compacting the mix into slab specimens was developed and a series of laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of the new mix, including Cantabro loss, permeability, friction, shear strength, and wheel rutting tests. Results show superior overall performance of the open-graded epoxy asphalt mix compared to conventional open-graded asphalt mix. There are also preliminary indications that the OGFC mix with 4.75-mm NMAS gradation can improve the resistance performance to raveling, while the OGFC mix with 9.5-mm NMAS gradation can improve the performance of surface friction at a high slip speed.

  12. On the consideration of scaling properties of extreme rainfall in Madrid (Spain) for developing a generalized intensity-duration-frequency equation and assessing probable maximum precipitation estimates

    Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Navarro, Xavier; Russo, Beniamino; Lastra, Antonio; González, Paula; Redaño, Angel


    The fractal behavior of extreme rainfall intensities registered between 1940 and 2012 by the Retiro Observatory of Madrid (Spain) has been examined, and a simple scaling regime ranging from 25 min to 3 days of duration has been identified. Thus, an intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) master equation of the location has been constructed in terms of the simple scaling formulation. The scaling behavior of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for durations between 5 min and 24 h has also been verified. For the statistical estimation of the PMP, an envelope curve of the frequency factor (k m ) based on a total of 10,194 station-years of annual maximum rainfall from 258 stations in Spain has been developed. This curve could be useful to estimate suitable values of PMP at any point of the Iberian Peninsula from basic statistical parameters (mean and standard deviation) of its rainfall series.

  13. Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum snow accumulation using a regional climate model: application to Quebec, Canada, under changing climate conditions

    Klein, I. M.; Rousseau, A. N.; Gagnon, P.; Frigon, A.


    Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood. A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the resulting spring probable maximum flood is neither overestimated, which would mean financial losses, nor underestimated, which could affect public safety. In addition, the impact of climate change needs to be considered since it is known that solid precipitation in some Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood intensify over the next century. In this paper, outputs from different simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model are used to estimate PMSAs for southern Quebec, Canada (44.1°N - 49.1°N; 68.2°W - 75.5°W). Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationary tests indicate that climate change will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water and the ensuing maximization ratio r. The maximization ratio r is used to maximize "efficient" snowfall events; and represents the ratio of the 100-year precipitable water of a given month divided by the snowstorm precipitable water. A computational method was developed to maximize precipitable water using a non-stationary frequency analysis. The method was carefully adapted to the spatial and temporal constraints embedded in the resolution of the available simulation data. For example, for a given grid cell and time step, snow and rain may occur simultaneously. In this case, the focus is restricted to snow and snow-storm-conditions only, thus rainfall and humidity that could lead to rainfall are neglected. Also, the temporal resolution cannot necessarily capture the full duration of actual snow storms. The threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized and the duration resulting from considered time steps are adjusted in order to obtain a high percentage of maximization ratios below

  14. Application of a maximum entropy method to estimate the probability density function of nonlinear or chaotic behavior in structural health monitoring data

    Livingston, Richard A.; Jin, Shuang


    Bridges and other civil structures can exhibit nonlinear and/or chaotic behavior under ambient traffic or wind loadings. The probability density function (pdf) of the observed structural responses thus plays an important role for long-term structural health monitoring, LRFR and fatigue life analysis. However, the actual pdf of such structural response data often has a very complicated shape due to its fractal nature. Various conventional methods to approximate it can often lead to biased estimates. This paper presents recent research progress at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center of the FHWA in applying a novel probabilistic scaling scheme for enhanced maximum entropy evaluation to find the most unbiased pdf. The maximum entropy method is applied with a fractal interpolation formulation based on contraction mappings through an iterated function system (IFS). Based on a fractal dimension determined from the entire response data set by an algorithm involving the information dimension, a characteristic uncertainty parameter, called the probabilistic scaling factor, can be introduced. This allows significantly enhanced maximum entropy evaluation through the added inferences about the fine scale fluctuations in the response data. Case studies using the dynamic response data sets collected from a real world bridge (Commodore Barry Bridge, PA) and from the simulation of a classical nonlinear chaotic system (the Lorenz system) are presented in this paper. The results illustrate the advantages of the probabilistic scaling method over conventional approaches for finding the unbiased pdf especially in the critical tail region that contains the larger structural responses.

  15. Adaptation Independent Modulation of Auditory Hair Cell Mechanotransduction Channel Open Probability Implicates a Role for the Lipid Bilayer.

    Peng, Anthony W; Gnanasambandam, Radhakrishnan; Sachs, Frederick; Ricci, Anthony J


    The auditory system is able to detect movement down to atomic dimensions. This sensitivity comes in part from mechanisms associated with gating of hair cell mechanoelectric transduction (MET) channels. MET channels, located at the tops of stereocilia, are poised to detect tension induced by hair bundle deflection. Hair bundle deflection generates a force by pulling on tip-link proteins connecting adjacent stereocilia. The resting open probability (P(open)) of MET channels determines the linearity and sensitivity to mechanical stimulation. Classically, P(open) is regulated by a calcium-sensitive adaptation mechanism in which lowering extracellular calcium or depolarization increases P(open). Recent data demonstrated that the fast component of adaptation is independent of both calcium and voltage, thus requiring an alternative explanation for the sensitivity of P(open) to calcium and voltage. Using rat auditory hair cells, we characterize a mechanism, separate from fast adaptation, whereby divalent ions interacting with the local lipid environment modulate resting P(open). The specificity of this effect for different divalent ions suggests binding sites that are not an EF-hand or calmodulin model. GsMTx4, a lipid-mediated modifier of cationic stretch-activated channels, eliminated the voltage and divalent sensitivity with minimal effects on adaptation. We hypothesize that the dual mechanisms (lipid modulation and adaptation) extend the dynamic range of the system while maintaining adaptation kinetics at their maximal rates.

  16. Maximum opening of the mouth by mouth prop during dental procedures increases the risk of upper airway constriction

    Hiroshi Ito


    Full Text Available Hiroshi Ito1, Hiroyoshi Kawaai1, Shinya Yamazaki1, Yosuke Suzuki21Division of Systemic Management, Department of Oral Function, 2Division of Radiology and Diagnosis, Department of Medical Sciences, Ohu University, Post Graduate School of Dentistry, Koriyama City, Fukushima Prefecture, JapanAbstract: From a retrospective evaluation of data on accidents and deaths during dental procedures, it has been shown that several patients who refused dental treatment died of asphyxia during dental procedures. We speculated that forcible maximum opening of the mouth by using a mouth prop triggers this asphyxia by affecting the upper airway. Therefore, we assessed the morphological changes of the upper airway following maximal opening of the mouth. In 13 healthy adult volunteers, the sagittal diameter of the upper airway on lateral cephalogram was measured between the two conditions; closed mouth and maximally open mouth. The dyspnea in each state was evaluated by a visual analog scale. In one subject, a computed tomograph (CT was taken to assess the three-dimensional changes in the upper airway. A significant difference was detected in the mean sagittal diameter of the upper airway following use of the prop (closed mouth: 18.5 ± 3.8 mm, maximally open mouth: 10.4 ± 3.0 mm. All subjects indicated upper airway constriction and significant dyspnea when their mouth was maximally open. Although a CT scan indicated upper airway constriction when the mouth was maximally open, muscular compensation was admitted. Our results further indicate that the maximal opening of the mouth narrows the upper airway diameter and leads to dyspnea. The use of a prop for the patient who has communication problems or poor neuromuscular function can lead to asphyxia. When the prop is used for patient refusal in dentistry, the respiratory condition should be monitored strictly, and it should be kept in mind that the “sniffing position” is effective for avoiding upper airway

  17. Modeling Non-Equilibrium Dynamics of a Discrete Probability Distribution: General Rate Equation for Maximal Entropy Generation in a Maximum-Entropy Landscape with Time-Dependent Constraints

    Gian Paolo Beretta


    Full Text Available A rate equation for a discrete probability distribution is discussed as a route to describe smooth relaxation towards the maximum entropy distribution compatible at all times with one or more linear constraints. The resulting dynamics follows the path of steepest entropy ascent compatible with the constraints. The rate equation is consistent with the Onsager theorem of reciprocity and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. The mathematical formalism was originally developed to obtain a quantum theoretical unification of mechanics and thermodinamics. It is presented here in a general, non-quantal formulation as a part of an effort to develop tools for the phenomenological treatment of non-equilibrium problems with applications in engineering, biology, sociology, and economics. The rate equation is also extended to include the case of assigned time-dependences of the constraints and the entropy, such as for modeling non-equilibrium energy and entropy exchanges.

  18. Modeling Non-Equilibrium Dynamics of a Discrete Probability Distribution: General Rate Equation for Maximal Entropy Generation in a Maximum-Entropy Landscape with Time-Dependent Constraints

    Beretta, Gian P.


    A rate equation for a discrete probability distribution is discussed as a route to describe smooth relaxation towards the maximum entropy distribution compatible at all times with one or more linear constraints. The resulting dynamics follows the path of steepest entropy ascent compatible with the constraints. The rate equation is consistent with the Onsager theorem of reciprocity and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. The mathematical formalism was originally developed to obtain a quantum theoretical unification of mechanics and thermodinamics. It is presented here in a general, non-quantal formulation as a part of an effort to develop tools for the phenomenological treatment of non-equilibrium problems with applications in engineering, biology, sociology, and economics. The rate equation is also extended to include the case of assigned time-dependences of the constraints and the entropy, such as for modeling non-equilibrium energy and entropy exchanges.

  19. How to Recognize and Avoid Potential, Possible, or Probable Predatory Open-Access Publishers, Standalone, and Hijacked Journals.

    Danevska, Lenche; Spiroski, Mirko; Donev, Doncho; Pop-Jordanova, Nada; Polenakovic, Momir


    The Internet has enabled an easy method to search through the vast majority of publications and has improved the impact of scholarly journals. However, it can also pose threats to the quality of published articles. New publishers and journals have emerged so-called open-access potential, possible, or probable predatory publishers and journals, and so-called hijacked journals. It was our aim to increase the awareness and warn scholars, especially young researchers, how to recognize these journals and how to avoid submission of their papers to these journals. Review and critical analysis of the relevant published literature, Internet sources and personal experience, thoughts, and observations of the authors. The web blog of Jeffrey Beall, University of Colorado, was greatly consulted. Jeffrey Beall is a Denver academic librarian who regularly maintains two lists: the first one, of potential, possible, or probable predatory publishers and the second one, of potential, possible, or probable predatory standalone journals. Aspects related to this topic presented by other authors have been discussed as well. Academics should bear in mind how to differentiate between trustworthy and reliable journals and predatory ones, considering: publication ethics, peer-review process, international academic standards, indexing and abstracting, preservation in digital repositories, metrics, sustainability, etc.

  20. Maximum Output Power Control Using Short-Circuit Current and Open-Circuit Voltage of a Solar Panel

    Kato, Takahiro; Miyake, Takuma; Tashima, Daisuke; Sakoda, Tatsuya; Otsubo, Masahisa; Hombu, Mitsuyuki


    A control method to optimize the output power of a solar cell is necessary because the output of a solar cell strongly depends on solar radiation. We here proposed two output power control methods using the short-circuit current and open-circuit voltage of a solar panel. One of them used a current ratio and a voltage ratio (αβ control), and the other used a current ratio and a short-circuit current-electric power characteristic coefficient (αγ control). The usefulness of the αβ and the αγ control methods was evaluated. The results showed that the output power controlled by our proposed methods was close to the maximum output power of a solar panel.

  1. Resveratrol enhances airway surface liquid depth in sinonasal epithelium by increasing cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator open probability.

    Shaoyan Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chronic rhinosinusitis engenders enormous morbidity in the general population, and is often refractory to medical intervention. Compounds that augment mucociliary clearance in airway epithelia represent a novel treatment strategy for diseases of mucus stasis. A dominant fluid and electrolyte secretory pathway in the nasal airways is governed by the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR. The objectives of the present study were to test resveratrol, a strong potentiator of CFTR channel open probability, in preparation for a clinical trial of mucociliary activators in human sinus disease. METHODS: Primary sinonasal epithelial cells, immortalized bronchoepithelial cells (wild type and F508del CFTR, and HEK293 cells expressing exogenous human CFTR were investigated by Ussing chamber as well as patch clamp technique under non-phosphorylating conditions. Effects on airway surface liquid depth were measured using confocal laser scanning microscopy. Impact on CFTR gene expression was measured by quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Resveratrol is a robust CFTR channel potentiator in numerous mammalian species. The compound also activated temperature corrected F508del CFTR and enhanced CFTR-dependent chloride secretion in human sinus epithelium ex vivo to an extent comparable to the recently approved CFTR potentiator, ivacaftor. Using inside out patches from apical membranes of murine cells, resveratrol stimulated an ~8 picosiemens chloride channel consistent with CFTR. This observation was confirmed in HEK293 cells expressing exogenous CFTR. Treatment of sinonasal epithelium resulted in a significant increase in airway surface liquid depth (in µm: 8.08+/-1.68 vs. 6.11+/-0.47,control,p<0.05. There was no increase CFTR mRNA. CONCLUSION: Resveratrol is a potent chloride secretagogue from the mucosal surface of sinonasal epithelium, and hydrates airway surface liquid by increasing CFTR

  2. Performance of Unequal Error Protection Using Maximum A- posteriori Probability Algorithm and Modified MAP in Additive White Gaussian Noise and Fading Channel

    T. Gnanasekaran


    Full Text Available Problem statement: In this study we propose a method to improve the performance of Maximum A-Posteriori Probability Algorithm, which is used in turbo decoder. Previously the performance of turbo decoder is improved by means of scaling the channel reliability value. Approach: A modification in MAP algorithm proposed in this study, which achieves further improvement in forward error correction by means of scaling the extrinsic information in both decoders without introducing any complexity. The encoder is modified with a new puncturing matrix, which yields Unequal Error Protection (UEP. This modified MAP algorithm is analyzed with the traditional turbo code system Equal Error Protection (EEP and also with Unequal Error Protection (UEP both in AWGN channel and fading channel. Result: MAP and modified MAP achieve coding gain of 0.6 dB over EEP in AWGN channel. The MAP and modified MAP achieve coding gain of 0.4 dB and 0.9dB over EEP respectively in Rayleigh fading channel. Modified MAP in UEP class 1 and class 2 gained 0.8 dB and 0.6 dB respectively in AWGN channel where as in fading channel class 1 and 2 gained 0.4 dB and 0.6 dB respectively. Conclusion/Recommendations: The modified MAP algorithm improves the Bit Error Rate (BER performance in EEP as well as UEP both in AWGN and fading channels. We propose modified MAP error correction algorithm with UEP for broad band communication.

  3. Mayo Adhesive Probability Score Is an Independent Computed Tomography Scan Predictor of Adherent Perinephric Fat in Open Partial Nephrectomy.

    Martin, Logan; Rouviere, Olivier; Bezza, Riadh; Bailleux, Jérôme; Abbas, Fatima; Schott-Pethelaz, Anne-Marie; Ruffion, Alain; Paparel, Philippe


    To evaluate predictive radiological elements for adherent perinephric fat (APF) and the Mayo adhesive probability (MAP) score in the setting of open partial nephrectomy, and to assess their reproducibility. We performed a retrospective case-control study involving 86 patients who had open partial nephrectomies performed by a single surgeon between January 1, 2009 and April 1, 2015. Radiological elements were assessed by 4 readers blinded to patient APF status. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for all radiological and clinical factors. Reproducibility was analyzed using agreement coefficients. On univariate analysis for radiological findings, lateral and posterior fat thickness (odds ratio [OR]: 1.084 [1.033, 1.138], P < .001), stranding (OR: 2.179 [1.431, 3.318], P < .001), -80 HU fat area, and the MAP score (OR: 1.797 [1.332, 2.424], P < .001) were predictive of APF. On multivariate analysis, only age and the MAP score remained statistically significant (OR: 1.060 [1.005, 1.118], P = .03; and OR: 1.560 [1.137, 2.139], P = .0058, respectively). The reproducibility of the MAP score was fair (AC1 = 0.367 and kappa F = 0.353), as was that of stranding (AC1 = 0.499, kappa F = 0.376). The agreement was important if we defined a "low" (0 to 3) or "high" (4 or 5) score (AC1 = 0.706 and kappa F = 0.681). The MAP score was the element that best predicted APF in our study, although its reproducibility among our readers was only fair. The agreement becomes important if we defined "low or high" score. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Population pharmacokinetics and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of abacavir: application of individualized therapy in HIV-infected infants and toddlers.

    Zhao, W.; Cella, M.; Pasqua, O. Della; Burger, D.M.; Jacqz-Aigrain, E.


    WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: Abacavir is used to treat HIV infection in both adults and children. The recommended paediatric dose is 8 mg kg(-1) twice daily up to a maximum of 300 mg twice daily. Weight was identified as the central covariate influencing pharmacokinetics of abacavir in

  5. Evaluation of the eruptive potential and probability in open conduit volcano (Mt Etna) based on soil CO2 flux measurements

    De Gregorio, Sofia; Camarda, Marco


    The evaluation of the amount of magma that might be potentially erupted, i.e. the eruptive potential (EP), and the probability of eruptive event occurrence, i.e. eruptive probability (EPR) of active volcano is one of the most compelling and challenging topic addressed by the volcanology community in the last years. The evaluation of the EP in open conduit volcano is generally based on constant magma supply rate deduced by long-term series of eruptive rate. This EP computation gives good results on long-term (centuries) evaluations, but resulted less effective when short-term (years or months) estimations are needed. Actually the rate of magma supply can undergo changes both on long-term and short-term. At steady condition it can be supposed that the regular supply of magma determines an almost constant level of magma in the feeding system (FS) whereas episodic surplus of magma inputs, with respect the regular supply, can cause large variations in the magma level. Follow that the surplus of magma occasionally entered in the FS represents a supply of material that sooner or later will be disposed, i.e. it will be emitted. Afterwards the amount of surplus of magma inward the FS nearly corresponds to the amount of magma that must be erupted in order to restore the equilibrium. Further, larger is the amount of surplus of magma stored in the system higher is the energetic level of the system and its propensity to erupt or in other words its EPR. On the light of the above consideration herein, we present an innovative methodology to evaluate the EP based on the quantification of surplus of magma with respect the regular supply, progressively intruded in the FS. To estimate the surplus of magma supply we used soil CO2 emission data measured monthly at 130 sites in two peripheral areas of Mt Etna Volcano. Indeed as reported by many authors soil CO2 emissions in the areas are linked to magma supply dynamics and more, anomalous discharges of CO2 are ascribable to surplus of




    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to identify and locate some species related to habitats from Pricop-Huta-Certeze and Upper Tisa Natura 2000 Protected Areas (PHCTS and to determine if they are vulnerable to risks induced by maximum flow phases. In the first chapter are mentioned few references about the morphometric parameters of the hydrographic networks within the study area, as well as some references related to the maximum flow phases frequency. After the second chapter, where methods and databases used in the study are described, we proceed to the identification of the areas that are covered by water during flood, as well as determining the risk level related to these areas. The GIS modeling reveals small extent of the flood high risk for natural environment related to protected areas and greater extent for the anthropic environment. The last chapter refers to several species of fish and batrachia, as well as to those amphibious mammals identified in the study area that are vulnerable to floods (high turbidity effect, reduction of dissolved oxygen quantity, habitats destruction etc..

  7. Towards the prediction of pre-mining stresses in the European continent. [Estimates of vertical and probable maximum lateral stress in Europe

    Blackwood, R.L.


    There are now available sufficient data from in-situ, pre-mining stress measurements to allow a first attempt at predicting the maximum stress magnitudes likely to occur in a given mining context. The sub-horizontal (lateral) stress generally dominates the stress field, becoming critical to stope stability in many cases. For cut-and-fill mining in particular, where developed fill pressures are influenced by lateral displacement of pillars or stope backs, extraction maximization planning by mathematical modelling techniques demands the best available estimate of pre-mining stresses. While field measurements are still essential for this purpose, in the present paper it is suggested that the worst stress case can be predicted for preliminary design or feasibility study purposes. In the Eurpoean continent the vertical component of pre-mining stress may be estimated by adding 2 MPa to the pressure due to overburden weight. The maximum lateral stress likely to be encountered is about 57 MPa at depths of some 800m to 1000m below the surface.

  8. Appropriate maximum holding times for analysis of total suspended solids concentration in water samples taken from open-channel waterways.

    Oudyn, Frederik W; Lyons, David J; Pringle, M J


    Many scientific laboratories follow, as standard practice, a relatively short maximum holding time (within 7 days) for the analysis of total suspended solids (TSS) in environmental water samples. In this study we have subsampled from bulk water samples stored at ∼4 °C in the dark, then analysed for TSS at time intervals up to 105 days after collection. The nonsignificant differences in TSS results observed over time demonstrates that storage at ∼4 °C in the dark is an effective method of preserving samples for TSS analysis, far past the 7-day standard practice. Extending the maximum holding time will ease the pressure on sample collectors and laboratory staff who until now have had to determine TSS within an impractically short period.

  9. Implementing a parametric maximum flow algorithm for optimal open pit mine design under uncertain supply and demand

    M W A Asad; R Dimitrakopoulos


    Conventional open pit mine optimization models for designing mining phases and ultimate pit limit do not consider expected variations and uncertainty in metal content available in a mineral deposit (supply) and commodity prices (market demand). Unlike the conventional approach, a stochastic framework relies on multiple realizations of the input data so as to account for uncertainty in metal content and financial parameters, reflecting potential supply and demand. This paper presents a new met...

  10. Maximum Fidelity

    Kinkhabwala, Ali


    The most fundamental problem in statistics is the inference of an unknown probability distribution from a finite number of samples. For a specific observed data set, answers to the following questions would be desirable: (1) Estimation: Which candidate distribution provides the best fit to the observed data?, (2) Goodness-of-fit: How concordant is this distribution with the observed data?, and (3) Uncertainty: How concordant are other candidate distributions with the observed data? A simple unified approach for univariate data that addresses these traditionally distinct statistical notions is presented called "maximum fidelity". Maximum fidelity is a strict frequentist approach that is fundamentally based on model concordance with the observed data. The fidelity statistic is a general information measure based on the coordinate-independent cumulative distribution and critical yet previously neglected symmetry considerations. An approximation for the null distribution of the fidelity allows its direct conversi...

  11. The Probability Distribution of the Maximum Amount of Daily Precipitation During 20 Days in Summer of the Huaihe Basins%淮河流域汛期20d内最大日降水量概率分布

    梁莉; 赵琳娜; 巩远发; 包红军; 王成鑫; 王志


    density function of gamma distribution, to a certain extent, overcomes the influence that the random oscillation of the samples caused to the estimation of daily precipitation probability distribution.The probability distribution of maximum daily precipitation in 1 to 20 days derived from gamma distribution function is reasonable. The curve of precipitation probability density of 1 day is monotonically decreasing which takes on the trend of reverse "J". The peak of probability distribution of the maximum daily precipitation in 10 days or 20 days tilts toward the side of large precipitation with the days increased.From the Huaihe Basin's probability distribution of the maximum daily precipitation more than 10 mm, 25 mm, 50 mm in 10 or 20 days, it indicates that the probability of the upper stream of the Huaihe River, the Huaihe River downstream below Hongze Lake, and the Yishu River watershed are evidently higher than the rest regions of the five catchments, which means that the maximum daily precipitation of these areas is more likely to be over 10 mm, 25 mm, 50 mm in 10 or 20 days.The high values of the probability of the maximum daily precipitation over 50 mm in 10 days locates in the eastern part of Yishu River watershed and the upper stream of the Huaihe River, while the high values of the probability of the maximum daily precipitation over 50 mm in 20 days locates in the junction of the downstream of the Huaihe River and eastern of the Hongze Lake, indicating large precipitation are more likely to occur in these areas. This approach can provide practical applications such as decision supports for the management of hydro-meteorological forecasting, agricultural, and water resources management.

  12. Maximum and minimum amplitudes of the moiré patterns in one- and two-dimensional binary gratings in relation to the opening ratio.

    Saveljev, Vladimir; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Lee, Hyoung; Kim, Hyun-Woo; Lee, Byoungho


    The amplitude of the moiré patterns is estimated in relation to the opening ratio in line gratings and square grids. The theory is developed; the experimental measurements are performed. The minimum and the maximum of the amplitude are found. There is a good agreement between the theoretical and experimental data. This is additionally confirmed by the visual observation. The results can be applied to the image quality improvement in autostereoscopic 3D displays, to the measurements, and to the moiré displays.

  13. Voltage dependence of cardiac excitation-contraction coupling: unitary Ca2+ current amplitude and open channel probability.

    Altamirano, Julio; Bers, Donald M


    Excitation-contraction coupling in cardiac myocytes occurs by Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release, where L-type Ca2+ current evokes a larger sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ release. The Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release amplification factor or gain (SR Ca2+ release/I(Ca)) is usually assessed by the V(m) dependence of current and Ca2+ transients. Gain rises at negative V(m), as does single channel I(Ca) (i(Ca)), which has led to the suggestion that the increases of i(Ca) amplitude enhances gain at more negative V(m). However, I(Ca) = NP(o) x i(Ca) (where NP(o) is the number of open channels), and NP(o) and i(Ca) both depend on V(m). To assess how i(Ca) and NP(o) separately influence Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release, we measured I(Ca) and junctional SR Ca2+ release in voltage-clamped rat ventricular myocytes using "Ca2+ spikes" (confocal microscopy). To vary i(Ca) alone, we changed [Ca2+](o) rapidly at constant test V(m) (0 mV) or abruptly repolarized from +120 mV to different V(m) (at constant [Ca2+](o)). To vary NP(o) alone, we altered Ca2+ channel availability by varying holding V(m) (at constant test V(m)). Reducing either i(Ca) or NP(o) alone increased excitation-contraction coupling gain. Thus, increasing i(Ca) does not increase gain at progressively negative test V(m). Such enhanced gain depends on lower NP(o) and reduced redundant Ca2+ channel openings (per junction) and a consequently smaller denominator in the gain equation. Furthermore, modest i(Ca) (at V(m) = 0 mV) may still effectively trigger SR Ca2+ release, whereas at positive V(m) (and smaller i(Ca)), high and well-synchronized channel openings are required for efficient excitation-contraction coupling. At very positive V(m), reduced i(Ca) must explain reduced SR Ca2+ release.

  14. Size effects on the open probability of two-state ion channel system in cell membranes using microcanonical formalism based on gamma function

    Erdem, Riza; Aydiner, Ekrem


    Ion channel systems are a class of proteins that reside in the membranes of all biological cells and forms conduction pores that regulate the transport of ions into and out of cells. They can be investigated theoretically in the microcanonical formalism since the number of accessible states can be easily evaluated by using the Stirling approximation to deal with factorials. In this work, we have used gamma function (Γ (n)) to solve the two-state or open-close channel model without any approximation. New values are calculated for the open probability (p0) and the relative error between our numerical results and the approximate one using Stirling formula is presented. This error (p0 app — p0)/p0 is significant for small channel systems.

  15. The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - II. Maximum expected magnitude determination

    Thanassoulas, C


    The (any) seismogenic area in the lithosphere is considered as an open physical system. Following its energy balance analysis earlier presented (Part - I, Thanassoulas, 2008), the specific case when the seismogenic area is under normal (input energy equals released energy) seismogenic conditions is studied. In this case the cumulative seismic energy release is a linear time function. Starting from this linear function a method is postulated for the determination of the maximum expected magnitude of a future earthquake. The proposed method has been tested "a posteriori" on real EQs from the Greek territory, USA and data obtained from the seismological literature. The obtained results validate the methodology while an analysis is presented that justifies the obtained high degree of accuracy compared to the corresponding calculated EQ magnitudes with seismological methods.

  16. Oncologic Safety of Robot Thyroid Surgery for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Comparative Study of Robot versus Open Thyroid Surgery Using Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting.

    Sung, Tae-Yon; Yoon, Jong Ho; Han, Minkyu; Lee, Yi Ho; Lee, Yu-Mi; Song, Dong Eun; Chung, Ki-Wook; Kim, Won Bae; Shong, Young Kee; Hong, Suck Joon


    The aim of this study was to evaluate the oncologic safety of robot thyroid surgery compared to open thyroid surgery for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We enrolled 722 patients with PTC who underwent a total thyroidectomy with central compartment node dissection (CCND) from January 2009 to December 2010. These patients were classified into open thyroid surgery (n = 610) or robot thyroid surgery (n = 112) groups. We verified the impact of robot thyroid surgery on clinical recurrence and ablation/control-stimulated thyroglobulin (sTg) levels predictive of non-recurrence using weighted logistic regression models with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Age, sex, thyroid weight, extent of CCND, and TNM were significantly different between the two groups (p robot groups (1.5% vs. 2.7%; p = 0.608). The proportion of patients with ablation sTg 0.05). Logistic regression with IPTW using the propensity scores estimated by adjusting all of the parameters demonstrated that robot thyroid surgery did not influence the clinical recurrence (OR; 0.784, 95% CI; 0.150-3.403, p = 0.750), ablation sTg (OR; 0.950, 95% CI; 0.361-2.399, p = 0.914), and control sTg levels (OR; 0.498, 95% CI; 0.190-1.189, p = 0.130). Robot thyroid surgery is comparable to open thyroid surgery with regard to oncologic safety in PTC patients.

  17. A Novel Probability-of-Detection-Difference Maximum-Based TOA Estimation Method in UWB Dense Multipath Channels%UWB密集多径下基于检测概率差值最大的TOA估计方法

    刘泽龙; 刘文彦; 丁宏; 黄晓涛


    In dense multipath channels, a practical ultra-wideband ( UWB) ranging system usually adopts time-of-arrival-based (TOA-based) energy detection (ED) receiver. The accuracy of TOA estimation determines the accuracy of ranging. Threshold comparison is used a lot in ED and the designing of threshold affects the accuracy of TOA estimation greatly. In this paper, we apply the maximum probability of detection (MPD) method to the energy-based TOA estimators. By improving the method of calculating the probability of detection, a new criteria to determine the threshold value and detect the direct path ( DP) is proposed. The algorithm calculates the probability of detection of DP during searching the optimal threshold. The DP is determined when the difference of the DP detection probability reaches maximum. And then the optimal threshold is also acquired. The paper analyzes theoretically and presents the novel procedure of the proposed TOA estimation method. In the Simulation, we compare our method with other methods. Simulation results show that our method outperforms others and verify the effectiveness of our method.%密集多径信道下,较为实际的超宽带(ultra-wideband,UWB)测距系统一般采用基于到达时间(time of arrival,TOA)的能量检测器(energy detector,ED)接收机.TOA的估计精度决定着测距精度.在ED中多采用阈值比较的方法来估计TOA,阈值的设计对TOA估计的精度有着非常重要的影响.本文将最大概率检测(maximumprobability of detection,MPD)算法应用于基于ED的TOA估计器中,并对样本检测概率计算方法进行改进,在搜索阈值的基础上计算出每次正确检测到直达路径( direct path,DP)的概率,提出一种阈值确定和DP检测新准则,即把相邻两个DP检测概率差值最大时对应的路径作为DP,则该次搜索所对应的阈值即为最佳阈值.文中给出了这种准则的理论分析及TOA估计算法流程.最后通过仿真比较考察了不同信噪比下

  18. 基于最大熵原理的区域农业干旱度概率分布模型%Probability distribution model of regional agricultural drought degree based on the maximum entropy principle

    陈海涛; 黄鑫; 邱林; 王文川


      提出了构建综合考虑自然因素与农作物生长周期之间量化关系的干旱度评价指标,并基于最大熵原理建立了项目区干旱度分布密度函数,避免了以往构建概率分布的随意性,实现了对区域农业干旱度进行量化评价的目的。首先根据作物在非充分灌溉条件下的减产率,建立了干旱程度的量化评价指标,然后通过蒙特卡罗法生成了长系列降雨资料,并计算历年干旱度指标,最后利用最大熵原理,构建了农业干旱度分布的概率分布密度函数。以河南省濮阳市渠村灌区为对象进行了实例计算。结果表明,该模型概念清晰,计算简便实用,结果符合实际,是一种较好的评估方法。%The evaluation index of drought degree,which comprehensively considering the quantitative rela⁃tionship between the crop growing period and natural factors, is presented in this paper. The distribution density function of drought degree has been established based on the maximum-entropy principle. It can avoid the randomness of probability distribution previous constructed and has realized purpose of quantita⁃tive evaluation of agricultural drought degree. Firstly, the quantitative evaluation index of drought degree was established according to the yield reduction rate of deficit irrigation conditions. Secondly,a long series rainfall data were generated by Monte-Carlo method and the past years index of drought degree were calcu⁃lated. Finally, the density function of probability distribution of agricultural drought degree distribution was constructed by using maximum entropy principle. As an example, the calculation results of the distribution of drought degree of agriculture in Qucun irrigation area were presented. The results show that the model provides a better evaluation method with clear concept,simple and practical approach,and reasonable out⁃comes.

  19. Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification

    Tadini, A.; Bevilacqua, A.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bisson, M.; Isaia, R.; Mazzarini, F.; Valentine, G. A.; Vitale, S.; Baxter, P. J.; Bertagnini, A.; Cerminara, M.; de Michieli Vitturi, M.; Di Roberto, A.; Engwell, S.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Flandoli, F.; Pistolesi, M.


    In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a structured expert judgment to produce a first long-term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialize (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through (i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets and (ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these data sets were quantified explicitly with expert judgments and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics and subgroupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that (a) Somma-Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; (b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; (c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium-large eruption will enlarge the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera, and (d) there is a nonnegligible probability (mean value of 6-10%) that the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera.

  20. Maximum Similarity Matching Emotion Model Based on Mapping between State Space and Probability Space%基于状态空间与概率空间映射的极大相似度匹配情感模型

    王浩; 张权益; 方宝富; 方帅


    Robot emotion modeling is a hot issue in emotion robot research.Based on the emotion psychology knowledge,a dynamic emotion transfer model of the emotion robot is presented with different personalities under different external stimulation.The influences of personality and external stimulation are discussed.The emotion model based on state space is used to describe the emotion states of robot.The emotion transfer process is simulated by hidden Markov model (HMM) process.However,the HMM process can only work out the current probability of the emotion state.To get the concrete emotion state,the maximum similarity matching emotion transfer model based on mapping between state space and probability space is proposed.Firstly,the current emotion probability is calculated by HMM process.Then,the current concrete emotion state is obtained by maximum similarity matching.Different personalities and can be built by adjusting the parameters of the model.The proposed model simulates the transformation process effectively.The experimental results show that the emotion transfer process simulated by the proposed model corresponds with the general rules of human emotion transformation.stimulation%机器人情感建模是研究情感机器人的热点问题.文中以情感心理学知识为基础,模拟具有不同个性的情感机器人在外界刺激作用下情感动态变化的过程,研究个性和外界刺激对情感转移过程的影响.采用基于状态空间的情感空间模型来描述机器人的情感状态,并用HMM过程来模拟情感状态的转移过程.但HMM过程只能求得当前情感状态的概率,为得到具体的情感状态,文中提出一种基于状态空间与概率空间映射的极大相似度匹配的情感转移模型.首先利用HMM过程计算出当前情感概率,然后通过极大相似度匹配来得到转移后具体的情感状态.通过调节模型参数来模拟不同个性和外界刺激,该模型能有效模拟情感状态变化过

  1. Accuracy of land use change detection using support vector machine and maximum likelihood techniques for open-cast coal mining areas.

    Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan


    One objective of the present study was to evaluate the performance of support vector machine (SVM)-based image classification technique with the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) technique for a rapidly changing landscape of an open-cast mine. The other objective was to assess the change in land use pattern due to coal mining from 2006 to 2016. Assessing the change in land use pattern accurately is important for the development and monitoring of coalfields in conjunction with sustainable development. For the present study, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data of 2006 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)/Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data of 2016 of a part of Jharia Coalfield, Dhanbad, India, were used. The SVM classification technique provided greater overall classification accuracy when compared to the MLC technique in classifying heterogeneous landscape with limited training dataset. SVM exceeded MLC in handling a difficult challenge of classifying features having near similar reflectance on the mean signature plot, an improvement of over 11 % was observed in classification of built-up area, and an improvement of 24 % was observed in classification of surface water using SVM; similarly, the SVM technique improved the overall land use classification accuracy by almost 6 and 3 % for Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images, respectively. Results indicated that land degradation increased significantly from 2006 to 2016 in the study area. This study will help in quantifying the changes and can also serve as a basis for further decision support system studies aiding a variety of purposes such as planning and management of mines and environmental impact assessment.

  2. Comparison of the diagnostic ability of Moorfield′s regression analysis and glaucoma probability score using Heidelberg retinal tomograph III in eyes with primary open angle glaucoma

    Jindal Shveta


    Full Text Available Purpose: To compare the diagnostic performance of the Heidelberg retinal tomograph (HRT glaucoma probability score (GPS with that of Moorfield′s regression analysis (MRA. Materials and Methods: The study included 50 eyes of normal subjects and 50 eyes of subjects with early-to-moderate primary open angle glaucoma. Images were obtained by using HRT version 3.0. Results: The agreement coefficient (weighted k for the overall MRA and GPS classification was 0.216 (95% CI: 0.119 - 0.315. The sensitivity and specificity were evaluated using the most specific (borderline results included as test negatives and least specific criteria (borderline results included as test positives. The MRA sensitivity and specificity were 30.61 and 98% (most specific and 57.14 and 98% (least specific. The GPS sensitivity and specificity were 81.63 and 73.47% (most specific and 95.92 and 34.69% (least specific. The MRA gave a higher positive likelihood ratio (28.57 vs. 3.08 and the GPS gave a higher negative likelihood ratio (0.25 vs. 0.44.The sensitivity increased with increasing disc size for both MRA and GPS. Conclusions: There was a poor agreement between the overall MRA and GPS classifications. GPS tended to have higher sensitivities, lower specificities, and lower likelihood ratios than the MRA. The disc size should be taken into consideration when interpreting the results of HRT, as both the GPS and MRA showed decreased sensitivity for smaller discs and the GPS showed decreased specificity for larger discs.

  3. Inherited macular degeneration-associated mutations in CNGB3 increase the ligand sensitivity and spontaneous open probability of cone cyclic nucleotide-gated channels

    Meighan, Peter C.; Peng, Changhong; Varnum, Michael D.


    Cyclic nucleotide gated (CNG) channels are a critical component of the visual transduction cascade in the vertebrate retina. Mutations in the genes encoding these channels have been associated with a spectrum of inherited retinal disorders. To gain insight into their pathophysiological mechanisms, we have investigated the functional consequences of several CNGB3 mutations, previously associated with macular degeneration (Y469D and L595F) or complete achromatopsia (S156F, P309L, and G558C), by expressing these subunits in combination with wild-type CNGA3 in Xenopus oocytes and characterizing them using patch-clamp recordings in the inside-out configuration. These mutations did not prevent the formation of functional heteromeric channels, as indicated by sensitivity to block by L-cis-diltiazem. With the exception of S156F, each of the mutant channels displayed electrophysiological properties reflecting enhanced channel activity at physiological concentrations of cGMP (i.e., a gain-of-function phenotype). The increased channel activity produced by these mutations resulted from either increased functional expression levels, or increased sensitivity to cyclic nucleotides. Furthermore, L595F increased the spontaneous open probability in the absence of activating ligand, signifying a ligand independent gain-of-function change. In addition to the CNGB3 disease-associate mutations, we characterized the effects of several common CNGB3 and CNGA3 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on heteromeric CNGA3+CNGB3 channel function. Two of the SNPs examined (A3-T153M, and B3-W234C) produced decreased ligand sensitivity for heteromeric CNG channels. These changes may contribute to background disease susceptibility when combined with other genetic or non-genetic factors. Together, these studies help to define the underlying molecular phenotype for mutations relating to CNG channel disease pathogenesis. PMID:26106334

  4. Inherited macular degeneration-associated mutations in CNGB3 increase the ligand sensitivity and spontaneous open probability of cone cyclic nucleotide-gated channels.

    Peter eMeighan


    Full Text Available Cyclic nucleotide gated (CNG channels are a critical component of the visual transduction cascade in the vertebrate retina. Mutations in the genes encoding these channels have been associated with a spectrum of inherited retinal disorders. To gain insight into their pathophysiological mechanisms, we have investigated the functional consequences of several CNGB3 mutations, previously associated with macular degeneration (Y469D and L595F or complete achromatopsia (S156F, P309L, and G558C, by expressing these subunits in combination with wild-type CNGA3 in Xenopus oocytes and characterizing them using patch-clamp recordings in the inside-out configuration. These mutations did not prevent the formation of functional heteromeric channels, as indicated by sensitivity to block by L-cis-diltiazem. With the exception of S156F, each of the mutant channels displayed electrophysiological properties reflecting enhanced channel activity at physiological concentrations of cGMP (i.e., a gain-of-function phenotype. The increased channel activity produced by these mutations resulted from either increased functional expression levels, or increased sensitivity to cyclic nucleotides. Furthermore, L595F increased the spontaneous open probability in the absence of activating ligand, signifying a ligand independent gain-of-function change. In addition to the CNGB3 disease-associate mutations, we characterized the effects of several common CNGB3 and CNGA3 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs on heteromeric CNGA3+CNGB3 channel function. Two of the SNPs examined (A3-T153M, and B3-W234C produced decreased ligand sensitivity for heteromeric CNG channels. These changes may contribute to background disease susceptibility when combined with other genetic or nongenetic factors. Together, these studies help to define the underlying molecular phenotype for mutations relating to CNG channel disease pathogenesis.

  5. Quantum probability

    Gudder, Stanley P


    Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne

  6. Ruin probabilities

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...

  7. Ignition Probability

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  8. Probability-1

    Shiryaev, Albert N


    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  9. Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability


    the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U

  10. Risk Probabilities

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...

  11. Probability theory

    S Varadhan, S R


    This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando

  12. Generalized Maximum Entropy

    Cheeseman, Peter; Stutz, John


    A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

  13. Resolution of overlapping ambiguity strings based on maximum entropy model

    ZHANG Feng; FAN Xiao-zhong


    The resolution of overlapping ambiguity strings (OAS) is studied based on the maximum entropy model.There are two model outputs,where either the first two characters form a word or the last two characters form a word.The features of the model include one word in context of OAS,the current OAS and word probability relation of two kinds of segmentation results.OAS in training text is found by the combination of the FMM and BMM segmentation method.After feature tagging they are used to train the maximum entropy model.The People Daily corpus of January 1998 is used in training and testing.Experimental results show a closed test precision of 98.64% and an open test precision of 95.01%.The open test precision is 3,76% better compared with that of the precision of common word probability method.

  14. Estimating tail probabilities

    Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.


    This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.

  15. Bayesian Probability Theory

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo


    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  16. 最大概率方法在伺服系统故障诊断上的应用%Application of Maximum Probability Approach to the Fault Diagnosis of a Servo System

    马东升; 胡佑德; 戴凤智


    In an actual control system, it is often difficult to find out where the faults are if only based on the outside fault phenomena, acquired frequently from a fault system. So the fault diagnosis by outside fault phenomena is considered. Based on the theory of fuzzy recognition and fault diagnosis, this method only depends on experience and statistical data to set up fuzzy query relationship between the outside phenomena (fault characters) and the fault sources (fault patterns). From this relationship the most probable fault sources can be obtained, to attain the goal of quick diagnosis. Based on the above approach, the standard fuzzy relationship matrix is stored in the computer as a system database. And experiment data are given to show the fault diagnosis results. The important parameters can be on-line sampled and analyzed, and when faults occur, faults can be found, the alarm is given and the controller output is regulated.%为了解决实际控制系统中仅通过系统的故障现象难以确定系统故障元的难题,采用基于模糊识别和故障诊断理论的最大概率法,该方法仅仅依靠经验和统计数据,在外部故障现象和系统故障元之间建立模糊查询关系,从这一关系中可以获得最大故障概率点.将一个标准模糊关系矩阵作为数据库存储在计算机中,并给出了一个系统故障诊断的实验结果.通过以上方法,只要对系统的重要参数进行在线采集和分析,当发生故障时,就可以给出可能的故障元的故障概率,并发出警报.

  17. 基于开路电压法光伏电池最大功率追踪器%Maximum Power Point Tracker Based on Open-circuit Voltage Method

    钟长艺; 康龙云; 聂洪涛; 李贞姬


    光伏电池的最大功率点跟踪( MPPT)对提高太阳能的利用率以及充分利用太阳能所转换的能量而言至关重要.由于开路电压法特别适用于小功率光伏发电系统,因此选择开路电压法作为MPPT的控制方法.在分析了设计需求后,设计了基于单片机控制的开路电压法光伏电池最大功率追踪器,并采用大容量电源负载装置模拟电源功能模拟的光伏电池进行实验,设计的最大功率追踪器效率可达85%以上,特别适合应用在要求低成本小功率的太阳能LED路灯工程中.%The maximum power point tracking (MPPT) is very important for the photovoltaic cell to improve the energy utilization efficiency and make full use of the switching energy .The open-circuit voltage control method is used.Af-ter analyzing the design requirement, a maximum power point tracker based on the open-circuit voltage method controlled by single-chip microcomputer is designed. In the experiment, the active power load device is used to simulate the photovoltaic cell.The tracking efficiency of the designed maximum power tracker can reach 85% above, especially suitable for using in solar LED lamp project which requires low-cost and small-power.

  18. A (simplified) Bluetooth Maximum A posteriori Probability (MAP) receiver

    Schiphorst, Roelof; Hoeksema, F.W.; Slump, Cornelis H.


    In our software-defined radio project we aim at combining two standards: Bluetooth and HiperLAN/2. The Hiper- LAN/2 receiver requires the most computation power in comparison with Bluetooth. We choose to use this computational power also for Bluetooth and look for more advanced demodulation

  19. A (Simplified) Bluetooth Maximum a Posteriori Probability (Map) Receiver

    Schiphorst, R.; Hoeksema, F.W.; Slump, C.H.; Barbarossa, Sergio; Scutari, Gesualdo


    In our software-defined radio project, we aim at combining two standards luetooth and HIPERLAN/2. The HIPERLAN/2 receiver requires more computational power than Bluetooth. We choose to use this computational power also for Bluetooth and look for more advanced demodulation algorithms such as a maximu

  20. A (simplified) Bluetooth Maximum A posteriori Probability (MAP) receiver

    Schiphorst, R.; Hoeksema, F.W.; Slump, C.H.


    In our software-defined radio project we aim at combining two standards: Bluetooth and HiperLAN/2. The Hiper- LAN/2 receiver requires the most computation power in comparison with Bluetooth. We choose to use this computational power also for Bluetooth and look for more advanced demodulation algorith

  1. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    Saad, Emad


    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  2. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    Burgin, Mark


    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  3. D(Maximum)=P(Argmaximum)

    Remizov, Ivan D


    In this note, we represent a subdifferential of a maximum functional defined on the space of all real-valued continuous functions on a given metric compact set. For a given argument, $f$ it coincides with the set of all probability measures on the set of points maximizing $f$ on the initial compact set. This complete characterization lies in the heart of several important identities in microeconomics, such as Roy's identity, Sheppard's lemma, as well as duality theory in production and linear programming.

  4. On Probability Leakage

    Briggs, William M.


    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  5. Free probability and random matrices

    Mingo, James A


    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  6. Probability 1/e

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.


    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  7. Probability an introduction

    Goldberg, Samuel


    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  8. Probability 1/e

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.


    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  9. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value


    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  10. Agreeing Probability Measures for Comparative Probability Structures

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)


    textabstractIt is proved that fine and tight comparative probability structures (where the set of events is assumed to be an algebra, not necessarily a σ-algebra) have agreeing probability measures. Although this was often claimed in the literature, all proofs the author encountered are not valid

  11. Maximum Autocorrelation Factorial Kriging

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Pedersen, John L.


    This paper describes maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis, maximum autocorrelation factorial kriging, and its application to irregularly sampled stream sediment geochemical data from South Greenland. Kriged MAF images are compared with kriged images of varimax rotated factors from...

  12. The Testability of Maximum Magnitude

    Clements, R.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gonzalez, A.; Zoeller, G.; Schneider, M.


    Recent disasters caused by earthquakes of unexpectedly large magnitude (such as Tohoku) illustrate the need for reliable assessments of the seismic hazard. Estimates of the maximum possible magnitude M at a given fault or in a particular zone are essential parameters in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), but their accuracy remains untested. In this study, we discuss the testability of long-term and short-term M estimates and the limitations that arise from testing such rare events. Of considerable importance is whether or not those limitations imply a lack of testability of a useful maximum magnitude estimate, and whether this should have any influence on current PSHA methodology. We use a simple extreme value theory approach to derive a probability distribution for the expected maximum magnitude in a future time interval, and we perform a sensitivity analysis on this distribution to determine if there is a reasonable avenue available for testing M estimates as they are commonly reported today: devoid of an appropriate probability distribution of their own and estimated only for infinite time (or relatively large untestable periods). Our results imply that any attempt at testing such estimates is futile, and that the distribution is highly sensitive to M estimates only under certain optimal conditions that are rarely observed in practice. In the future we suggest that PSHA modelers be brutally honest about the uncertainty of M estimates, or must find a way to decrease its influence on the estimated hazard.

  13. Probability and Relative Frequency

    Drieschner, Michael


    The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.

  14. Elements of probability theory

    Rumshiskii, L Z


    Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments

  15. Evaluating probability forecasts

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902


    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  16. What Are Probability Surveys?

    The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

  17. Introduction to probability

    Roussas, George G


    Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an

  18. Philosophical theories of probability

    Gillies, Donald


    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  19. Cluster Membership Probability: Polarimetric Approach

    Medhi, Biman J


    Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper-motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q(%) and u(%) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the ...

  20. Dependent Probability Spaces

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris


    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  1. Non-Archimedean Probability

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  2. Interpretations of probability

    Khrennikov, Andrei


    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  3. Non-Archimedean Probability

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia


    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned prob

  4. Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

    Zak, Michail


    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

  5. Philosophy and probability

    Childers, Timothy


    Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,

  6. Some New Results on Transition Probability

    Yu Quan XIE


    In this paper, we study the basic properties of stationary transition probability of Markov processes on a general measurable space (E, ε), such as the continuity, maximum probability, zero point, positive probability set standardization, and obtain a series of important results such as Continuity Theorem, Representation Theorem, Levy Theorem and so on. These results are very useful for us to study stationary tri-point transition probability on a general measurable space (E, ε). Our main tools such as Egoroff's Theorem, Vitali-Hahn-Saks's Theorem and the theory of atomic set and well-posedness of measure are also very interesting and fashionable.

  7. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    Olofsson, Peter


    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  8. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane


    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  9. Probability and radical behaviorism

    Espinosa, James M.


    The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114

  10. Probability and radical behaviorism

    Espinosa, James M.


    The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforc...



  12. Real analysis and probability

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E


    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  13. Handbook of probability

    Florescu, Ionut


    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  14. Maximum Autocorrelation Factorial Kriging

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Pedersen, John L.; Steenfelt, Agnete


    This paper describes maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis, maximum autocorrelation factorial kriging, and its application to irregularly sampled stream sediment geochemical data from South Greenland. Kriged MAF images are compared with kriged images of varimax rotated factors from an ordinary non-spatial factor analysis, and they are interpreted in a geological context. It is demonstrated that MAF analysis contrary to ordinary non-spatial factor analysis gives an objective discrimina...

  15. A Thermodynamical Approach for Probability Estimation

    Isozaki, Takashi


    The issue of discrete probability estimation for samples of small size is addressed in this study. The maximum likelihood method often suffers over-fitting when insufficient data is available. Although the Bayesian approach can avoid over-fitting by using prior distributions, it still has problems with objective analysis. In response to these drawbacks, a new theoretical framework based on thermodynamics, where energy and temperature are introduced, was developed. Entropy and likelihood are placed at the center of this method. The key principle of inference for probability mass functions is the minimum free energy, which is shown to unify the two principles of maximum likelihood and maximum entropy. Our method can robustly estimate probability functions from small size data.

  16. Probability of Detection Demonstration Transferability

    Parker, Bradford H.


    The ongoing Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Propellant Tank Penetrant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Assessment (NESC activity) has surfaced several issues associated with liquid penetrant POD demonstration testing. This presentation lists factors that may influence the transferability of POD demonstration tests. Initial testing will address the liquid penetrant inspection technique. Some of the factors to be considered in this task are crack aspect ratio, the extent of the crack opening, the material and the distance between the inspection surface and the inspector's eye.

  17. On Quantum Conditional Probability

    Isabel Guerra Bobo


    Full Text Available We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.

  18. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  19. Introduction to probability

    Freund, John E


    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  20. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  1. Choice probability generating functions

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel


    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  2. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  3. The maximum entropy technique. System's statistical description

    Belashev, B Z


    The maximum entropy technique (MENT) is applied for searching the distribution functions of physical values. MENT takes into consideration the demand of maximum entropy, the characteristics of the system and the connection conditions, naturally. It is allowed to apply MENT for statistical description of closed and open systems. The examples in which MENT had been used for the description of the equilibrium and nonequilibrium states and the states far from the thermodynamical equilibrium are considered

  4. Semiclassical decay of strings with maximum angular momentum

    Iengo, R; Iengo, Roberto; Russo, Jorge G.


    A highly excited (closed or open) string state on the leading Regge trajectory can be represented by a rotating soliton solution. There is a semiclassical probability per unit cycle that this string can spontaneously break into two pieces. Here we find the resulting solutions for the outgoing two pieces, which describe two specific excited string states, and show that this semiclassical picture reproduces very accurately the features of the quantum calculation of decay in the large mass M limit. In particular, this picture prescribes the precise analytical relation of the masses M_1 and M_2 of the decay products, and indicates that the lifetime of these string states grows with the mass as T= const. a' M, in agreement with the quantum calculation. Thus, surprisingly, a string with maximum angular momentum becomes more stable for larger masses. We also point out some interesting features of the evolution after the splitting process.

  5. Integrated statistical modelling of spatial landslide probability

    Mergili, M.; Chu, H.-J.


    Statistical methods are commonly employed to estimate spatial probabilities of landslide release at the catchment or regional scale. Travel distances and impact areas are often computed by means of conceptual mass point models. The present work introduces a fully automated procedure extending and combining both concepts to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability: (i) the landslide inventory is subset into release and deposition zones. (ii) We employ a simple statistical approach to estimate the pixel-based landslide release probability. (iii) We use the cumulative probability density function of the angle of reach of the observed landslide pixels to assign an impact probability to each pixel. (iv) We introduce the zonal probability i.e. the spatial probability that at least one landslide pixel occurs within a zone of defined size. We quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (v) The integrated spatial landslide probability is defined as the maximum of the release probability and the product of the impact probability and the zonal release probability relevant for each pixel. We demonstrate the approach with a 637 km2 study area in southern Taiwan, using an inventory of 1399 landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot in 2009. We observe that (i) the average integrated spatial landslide probability over the entire study area corresponds reasonably well to the fraction of the observed landside area; (ii) the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed spatial landslide distribution; (iii) the size of the release zone (or any other zone of spatial aggregation) influences the integrated spatial landslide probability to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability; (iv) removing the largest landslides from the analysis leads to an enhanced model performance.

  6. Probability and Measure

    Billingsley, Patrick


    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  7. Maximum likely scale estimation

    Loog, Marco; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Markussen, Bo


    A maximum likelihood local scale estimation principle is presented. An actual implementation of the estimation principle uses second order moments of multiple measurements at a fixed location in the image. These measurements consist of Gaussian derivatives possibly taken at several scales and/or ...

  8. Probabilities in physics

    Hartmann, Stephan


    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  9. Concepts of probability theory

    Pfeiffer, Paul E


    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  10. Probability in physics

    Hemmo, Meir


    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  11. Probability and Bayesian statistics


    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  12. Probability an introduction

    Grimmett, Geoffrey


    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...




    This Letter dicusses the nuclear encounter probability as used in ion channeling analysis. A formulation is given, incorporating effects of large beam angles and beam divergence. A critical examination of previous definitions is made.

  14. Probability for statisticians

    Shorack, Galen R


    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  15. Probability and Statistical Inference

    Prosper, Harrison B.


    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  16. Probability in quantum mechanics

    J. G. Gilson


    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  17. Quantum computing and probability.

    Ferry, David K


    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  18. Monte Carlo transition probabilities

    Lucy, L. B.


    Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...

  19. Maximum information photoelectron metrology

    Hockett, P; Wollenhaupt, M; Baumert, T


    Photoelectron interferograms, manifested in photoelectron angular distributions (PADs), are a high-information, coherent observable. In order to obtain the maximum information from angle-resolved photoionization experiments it is desirable to record the full, 3D, photoelectron momentum distribution. Here we apply tomographic reconstruction techniques to obtain such 3D distributions from multiphoton ionization of potassium atoms, and fully analyse the energy and angular content of the 3D data. The PADs obtained as a function of energy indicate good agreement with previous 2D data and detailed analysis [Hockett et. al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 223001 (2014)] over the main spectral features, but also indicate unexpected symmetry-breaking in certain regions of momentum space, thus revealing additional continuum interferences which cannot otherwise be observed. These observations reflect the presence of additional ionization pathways and, most generally, illustrate the power of maximum information measurements of th...

  20. The perception of probability.

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E


    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.

  1. Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

    Narens, Louis


    Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling.

  2. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Andrew, Lane


    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  3. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Andrew, Lane


    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  4. The pleasures of probability

    Isaac, Richard


    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  5. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    Melucci, Massimo


    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  6. Probabilities from Envariance

    Zurek, W H


    I show how probabilities arise in quantum physics by exploring implications of {\\it environment - assisted invariance} or {\\it envariance}, a recently discovered symmetry exhibited by entangled quantum systems. Envariance of perfectly entangled states can be used to rigorously justify complete ignorance of the observer about the outcome of any measurement on either of the members of the entangled pair. Envariance leads to Born's rule, $p_k \\propto |\\psi_k|^2$. Probabilities derived in this manner are an objective reflection of the underlying state of the system -- they reflect experimentally verifiable symmetries, and not just a subjective ``state of knowledge'' of the observer. Envariance - based approach is compared with and found superior to the key pre-quantum definitions of probability including the {\\it standard definition} based on the `principle of indifference' due to Laplace, and the {\\it relative frequency approach} advocated by von Mises. Implications of envariance for the interpretation of quantu...

  7. Collision Probability Analysis

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup


    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  8. Choice probability generating functions

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel


    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...

  9. Negative Probabilities and Contextuality

    de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary


    There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.

  10. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M


    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  11. Classic Problems of Probability

    Gorroochurn, Prakash


    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  12. Maximum Likelihood Associative Memories

    Gripon, Vincent; Rabbat, Michael


    Associative memories are structures that store data in such a way that it can later be retrieved given only a part of its content -- a sort-of error/erasure-resilience property. They are used in applications ranging from caches and memory management in CPUs to database engines. In this work we study associative memories built on the maximum likelihood principle. We derive minimum residual error rates when the data stored comes from a uniform binary source. Second, we determine the minimum amo...

  13. Maximum likely scale estimation

    Loog, Marco; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Markussen, Bo


    A maximum likelihood local scale estimation principle is presented. An actual implementation of the estimation principle uses second order moments of multiple measurements at a fixed location in the image. These measurements consist of Gaussian derivatives possibly taken at several scales and....../or having different derivative orders. Although the principle is applicable to a wide variety of image models, the main focus here is on the Brownian model and its use for scale selection in natural images. Furthermore, in the examples provided, the simplifying assumption is made that the behavior...... of the measurements is completely characterized by all moments up to second order....

  14. Epistemology and Probability

    Plotnitsky, Arkady


    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  15. Counterexamples in probability

    Stoyanov, Jordan M


    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  16. Varga: On Probability.

    Varga, Tamas

    This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…

  17. Collision Probability Analysis

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup


    probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  18. On Probability Domains

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin


    Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.

  19. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    Burgin, Mark


    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  20. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    Burgin, Mark


    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  1. Maximum Entropy Fundamentals

    F. Topsøe


    Full Text Available Abstract: In its modern formulation, the Maximum Entropy Principle was promoted by E.T. Jaynes, starting in the mid-fifties. The principle dictates that one should look for a distribution, consistent with available information, which maximizes the entropy. However, this principle focuses only on distributions and it appears advantageous to bring information theoretical thinking more prominently into play by also focusing on the "observer" and on coding. This view was brought forward by the second named author in the late seventies and is the view we will follow-up on here. It leads to the consideration of a certain game, the Code Length Game and, via standard game theoretical thinking, to a principle of Game Theoretical Equilibrium. This principle is more basic than the Maximum Entropy Principle in the sense that the search for one type of optimal strategies in the Code Length Game translates directly into the search for distributions with maximum entropy. In the present paper we offer a self-contained and comprehensive treatment of fundamentals of both principles mentioned, based on a study of the Code Length Game. Though new concepts and results are presented, the reading should be instructional and accessible to a rather wide audience, at least if certain mathematical details are left aside at a rst reading. The most frequently studied instance of entropy maximization pertains to the Mean Energy Model which involves a moment constraint related to a given function, here taken to represent "energy". This type of application is very well known from the literature with hundreds of applications pertaining to several different elds and will also here serve as important illustration of the theory. But our approach reaches further, especially regarding the study of continuity properties of the entropy function, and this leads to new results which allow a discussion of models with so-called entropy loss. These results have tempted us to speculate over

  2. Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height

    Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.


    wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....

  3. Regularized maximum correntropy machine

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan


    In this paper we investigate the usage of regularized correntropy framework for learning of classifiers from noisy labels. The class label predictors learned by minimizing transitional loss functions are sensitive to the noisy and outlying labels of training samples, because the transitional loss functions are equally applied to all the samples. To solve this problem, we propose to learn the class label predictors by maximizing the correntropy between the predicted labels and the true labels of the training samples, under the regularized Maximum Correntropy Criteria (MCC) framework. Moreover, we regularize the predictor parameter to control the complexity of the predictor. The learning problem is formulated by an objective function considering the parameter regularization and MCC simultaneously. By optimizing the objective function alternately, we develop a novel predictor learning algorithm. The experiments on two challenging pattern classification tasks show that it significantly outperforms the machines with transitional loss functions.

  4. Paradoxes in probability theory

    Eckhardt, William


    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  5. Contributions to quantum probability

    Fritz, Tobias


    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  6. Superpositions of probability distributions

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen


    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  7. Superpositions of probability distributions.

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen


    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=sigma;{2} play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  8. Probability theory and applications

    Hsu, Elton P


    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  9. Fractal probability laws.

    Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph


    We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.

  10. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    Willink, Robin


    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  11. Searching with Probabilities


    DeGroot , Morris H. Probability and Statistic. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1975. [Gillogly 78] Gillogly, J.J. Performance...distribution [ DeGroot 751 has just begun. The beta distribution has several features that might make it a more reasonable choice. As with the normal-based...1982. [Cooley 65] Cooley, J.M. and Tukey, J.W. An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series. Math. Comp. 19, 1965. [ DeGroot 75

  12. Probability via expectation

    Whittle, Peter


    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  13. The Wiener maximum quadratic assignment problem

    Cela, Eranda; Woeginger, Gerhard J


    We investigate a special case of the maximum quadratic assignment problem where one matrix is a product matrix and the other matrix is the distance matrix of a one-dimensional point set. We show that this special case, which we call the Wiener maximum quadratic assignment problem, is NP-hard in the ordinary sense and solvable in pseudo-polynomial time. Our approach also yields a polynomial time solution for the following problem from chemical graph theory: Find a tree that maximizes the Wiener index among all trees with a prescribed degree sequence. This settles an open problem from the literature.

  14. Equalized near maximum likelihood detector


    This paper presents new detector that is used to mitigate intersymbol interference introduced by bandlimited channels. This detector is named equalized near maximum likelihood detector which combines nonlinear equalizer and near maximum likelihood detector. Simulation results show that the performance of equalized near maximum likelihood detector is better than the performance of nonlinear equalizer but worse than near maximum likelihood detector.

  15. The constraint rule of the maximum entropy principle

    Uffink, J.


    The principle of maximum entropy is a method for assigning values to probability distributions on the basis of partial information. In usual formulations of this and related methods of inference one assumes that this partial information takes the form of a constraint on allowed probability distribut

  16. Exact probability distribution functions for Parrondo's games

    Zadourian, Rubina; Saakian, David B.; Klümper, Andreas


    We study the discrete time dynamics of Brownian ratchet models and Parrondo's games. Using the Fourier transform, we calculate the exact probability distribution functions for both the capital dependent and history dependent Parrondo's games. In certain cases we find strong oscillations near the maximum of the probability distribution with two limiting distributions for odd and even number of rounds of the game. Indications of such oscillations first appeared in the analysis of real financial data, but now we have found this phenomenon in model systems and a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon. The method of our work can be applied to Brownian ratchets, molecular motors, and portfolio optimization.

  17. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    Melucci, Massimo


    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of false alarm and the same parameter estimation data. As quantum probability provided more effective detectors than classical probability within other domains that data management, we conjecture that, the system that can implement subspace-based detectors shall be more effective than a system which implements a set-based detectors, the effectiveness being calculated as expected recall estimated over the probability of detection and expected fallout estimated over the probability of false alarm.

  18. Efficiency at maximum power of a discrete feedback ratchet

    Jarillo, Javier; Tangarife, Tomás; Cao, Francisco J.


    Efficiency at maximum power is found to be of the same order for a feedback ratchet and for its open-loop counterpart. However, feedback increases the output power up to a factor of five. This increase in output power is due to the increase in energy input and the effective entropy reduction obtained as a consequence of feedback. Optimal efficiency at maximum power is reached for time intervals between feedback actions two orders of magnitude smaller than the characteristic time of diffusion over a ratchet period length. The efficiency is computed consistently taking into account the correlation between the control actions. We consider a feedback control protocol for a discrete feedback flashing ratchet, which works against an external load. We maximize the power output optimizing the parameters of the ratchet, the controller, and the external load. The maximum power output is found to be upper bounded, so the attainable extracted power is limited. After, we compute an upper bound for the efficiency of this isothermal feedback ratchet at maximum power output. We make this computation applying recent developments of the thermodynamics of feedback-controlled systems, which give an equation to compute the entropy reduction due to information. However, this equation requires the computation of the probability of each of the possible sequences of the controller's actions. This computation becomes involved when the sequence of the controller's actions is non-Markovian, as is the case in most feedback ratchets. We here introduce an alternative procedure to set strong bounds to the entropy reduction in order to compute its value. In this procedure the bounds are evaluated in a quasi-Markovian limit, which emerge when there are big differences between the stationary probabilities of the system states. These big differences are an effect of the potential strength, which minimizes the departures from the Markovianicity of the sequence of control actions, allowing also to

  19. Combining Experiments and Simulations Using the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Boomsma, Wouter; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten


    are not in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The principle of maximum entropy is a general procedure for constructing probability distributions in the light of new data, making it a natural tool in cases when an initial model provides results that are at odds with experiments. The number of maximum entropy...

  20. Distribution of maximum loss of fractional Brownian motion with drift

    Çağlar, Mine; Vardar-Acar, Ceren


    In this paper, we find bounds on the distribution of the maximum loss of fractional Brownian motion with H >= 1/2 and derive estimates on its tail probability. Asymptotically, the tail of the distribution of maximum loss over [0, t] behaves like the tail of the marginal distribution at time t.

  1. Applying Popper's Probability

    Whiting, Alan B


    Professor Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994) was one of the most influential philosophers of science of the twentieth century, best known for his doctrine of falsifiability. His axiomatic formulation of probability, however, is unknown to current scientists, though it is championed by several current philosophers of science as superior to the familiar version. Applying his system to problems identified by himself and his supporters, it is shown that it does not have some features he intended and does not solve the problems they have identified.

  2. Probably Almost Bayes Decisions

    Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.


    discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...... in the relevant parameters and which match the lower bounds known for these classes. Moreover, the learning algorithms are efficient.......In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...

  3. Probability for physicists

    Sirca, Simon


    This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.

  4. Generalized Probability Functions

    Alexandre Souto Martinez


    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  5. Considerations on probability: from games of chance to modern science

    Paola Monari


    Full Text Available The article sets out a number of considerations on the distinction between variability and uncertainty over the centuries. Games of chance have always been useful random experiments which through combinatorial calculation have opened the way to probability theory and to the interpretation of modern science through statistical laws. The article also looks briefly at the stormy nineteenth-century debate concerning the definitions of probability which went over the same grounds – sometimes without any historical awareness – as the debate which arose at the very beginnings of probability theory, when the great probability theorists were open to every possible meaning of the term.

  6. Optimal sensor placement for maximum area coverage (MAC) for damage localization in composite structures

    Thiene, M.; Sharif Khodaei, Z.; Aliabadi, M. H.


    In this paper an optimal sensor placement algorithm for attaining the maximum area coverage (MAC) within a sensor network is presented. The proposed novel approach takes into account physical properties of Lamb wave propagation (attenuation profile, direction dependant group velocity due to material anisotropy) and geometrical complexities (boundary reflections, presence of openings) of the structure. A feature of the proposed optimization approach lies in the fact that it is independent of characteristics of the damage detection algorithm (e.g. probability of detection) making it readily up-scalable to large complex composite structures such as aircraft stiffened composite panel. The proposed fitness function (MAC) is independent of damage parameters (type, severity, location). Statistical analysis carried out shows that the proposed optimum sensor network with MAC results in high probability of damage localization. Genetic algorithm is coupled with the fitness function to provide an efficient optimization strategy.

  7. Probability in High Dimension


    12211 Research Triangle Park , NC 27709-2211 ----- REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S...One theme that will arise repeatedly in the sequel is the connection between concentration and the rate of conver- gence to equilibrium of Markov...that is open for the weak convergence topology . Then lim inf n!1 1 n log P " 1 n n X k=1 X k 2 O # inf ⌫2O D(⌫||µ). Remark 4.33. We have only

  8. Persistence probabilities \\& exponents

    Aurzada, Frank


    This article deals with the asymptotic behaviour as $t\\to +\\infty$ of the survival function $P[T > t],$ where $T$ is the first passage time above a non negative level of a random process starting from zero. In many cases of physical significance, the behaviour is of the type $P[T > t]=t^{-\\theta + o(1)}$ for a known or unknown positive parameter $\\theta$ which is called a persistence exponent. The problem is well understood for random walks or L\\'evy processes but becomes more difficult for integrals of such processes, which are more related to physics. We survey recent results and open problems in this field.

  9. Measure, integral and probability

    Capiński, Marek


    Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.

  10. Probabilities for Solar Siblings

    Valtonen, Mauri; Bajkova, A. T.; Bobylev, V. V.; Mylläri, A.


    We have shown previously (Bobylev et al. Astron Lett 37:550-562, 2011) that some of the stars in the solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10 % (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.

  11. Probabilities for Solar Siblings

    Valtonen, M; Bobylev, V V; Myllari, A


    We have shown previously (Bobylev et al 2011) that some of the stars in the Solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to Galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the Sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10% (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.

  12. Emptiness Formation Probability

    Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon


    We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.

  13. Learning unbelievable marginal probabilities

    Pitkow, Xaq; Miller, Ken D


    Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' This problem occurs whenever the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is not positive-definite at the target marginals. All learning algorithms for belief propagation necessarily fail in these cases, producing beliefs or sets of beliefs that may even be worse than the pre-learning approximation. We then show that averaging inaccurate beliefs, each obtained from belief propagation using model parameters perturbed about some le...

  14. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul


    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

  15. Physics and Probability

    Grandy, W. T., Jr.; Milonni, P. W.


    Preface; 1. Recollection of an independent thinker Joel A. Snow; 2. A look back: early applications of maximum entropy estimation to quantum statistical mechanics D. J. Scalapino; 3. The Jaynes-Cummings revival B. W. Shore and P. L. Knight; 4. The Jaynes-Cummings model and the one-atom-master H. Walther; 5. The Jaynes-Cummings model is alive and well P. Meystre; 6. Self-consistent radiation reaction in quantum optics - Jaynes' influence and a new example in cavity QED J. H. Eberly; 7. Enhancing the index of refraction in a nonabsorbing medium: phaseonium versus a mixture of two-level atoms M. O. Scully, T. W. Hänsch, M. Fleischhauer, C. H. Keitel and Shi-Yao Zhu; 8. Ed Jaynes' steak dinner problem II Michael D. Crisp; 9. Source theory of vacuum field effects Peter W. Milonni; 10. The natural line shape Edwin A. Power; 11. An operational approach to Schrödinger's cat L. Mandel; 12. The classical limit of an atom C. R. Stroud, Jr.; 13. Mutual radiation reaction in spontaneous emission Richard J. Cook; 14. A model of neutron star dynamics F. W. Cummings; 15. The kinematic origin of complex wave function David Hestenes; 16. On radar target identification C. Ray Smith; 17. On the difference in means G. Larry Bretthorst; 18. Bayesian analysis, model selection and prediction Arnold Zellner and Chung-ki Min; 19. Bayesian numerical analysis John Skilling; 20. Quantum statistical inference R. N. Silver; 21. Application of the maximum entropy principle to nonlinear systems far from equilibrium H. Haken; 22. Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics Baldwin Robertson; 23. A backward look to the future E. T. James; Appendix. Vita and bibliography of Edwin T. Jaynes; Index.

  16. Savage s Concept of Probability



    Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...

  17. Probability Theory without Bayes' Rule

    Rodriques, Samuel G.


    Within the Kolmogorov theory of probability, Bayes' rule allows one to perform statistical inference by relating conditional probabilities to unconditional probabilities. As we show here, however, there is a continuous set of alternative inference rules that yield the same results, and that may have computational or practical advantages for certain problems. We formulate generalized axioms for probability theory, according to which the reverse conditional probability distribution P(B|A) is no...

  18. Maximum entropy production and the fluctuation theorem

    Dewar, R C [Unite EPHYSE, INRA Centre de Bordeaux-Aquitaine, BP 81, 33883 Villenave d' Ornon Cedex (France)


    Recently the author used an information theoretical formulation of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics (MaxEnt) to derive the fluctuation theorem (FT) concerning the probability of second law violating phase-space paths. A less rigorous argument leading to the variational principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) was also given. Here a more rigorous and general mathematical derivation of MEP from MaxEnt is presented, and the relationship between MEP and the FT is thereby clarified. Specifically, it is shown that the FT allows a general orthogonality property of maximum information entropy to be extended to entropy production itself, from which MEP then follows. The new derivation highlights MEP and the FT as generic properties of MaxEnt probability distributions involving anti-symmetric constraints, independently of any physical interpretation. Physically, MEP applies to the entropy production of those macroscopic fluxes that are free to vary under the imposed constraints, and corresponds to selection of the most probable macroscopic flux configuration. In special cases MaxEnt also leads to various upper bound transport principles. The relationship between MaxEnt and previous theories of irreversible processes due to Onsager, Prigogine and Ziegler is also clarified in the light of these results. (letter to the editor)

  19. Determination of Measurement Points in Urban Environments for Assessment of Maximum Exposure to EMF Associated with a Base Station

    Agostinho Linhares


    Full Text Available A base station (BS antenna operates in accordance with the established exposure limits if the values of electromagnetic fields (EMF measured in points of maximum exposure are below these limits. In the case of BS in open areas, the maximum exposure to EMF probably occurs in the antenna’s boresight direction, from a few tens to a few hundred meters away. This is not a typical scenery for urban environments. However, in the line of sight (LOS situation, the region of maximum exposure can still be analytically estimated with good results. This paper presents a methodology for the choice of measurement points in urban areas in order to assess compliance with the limits for exposure to EMF.

  20. The Origin of Probability and Entropy

    Knuth, Kevin H.


    Measuring is the quantification of ordering. Thus the process of ordering elements of a set is a more fundamental activity than measuring. Order theory, also known as lattice theory, provides a firm foundation on which to build measure theory. The result is a set of new insights that cast probability theory and information theory in a new light, while simultaneously opening the door to a better understanding of measures as a whole.

  1. Vestige: Maximum likelihood phylogenetic footprinting

    Maxwell Peter


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Phylogenetic footprinting is the identification of functional regions of DNA by their evolutionary conservation. This is achieved by comparing orthologous regions from multiple species and identifying the DNA regions that have diverged less than neutral DNA. Vestige is a phylogenetic footprinting package built on the PyEvolve toolkit that uses probabilistic molecular evolutionary modelling to represent aspects of sequence evolution, including the conventional divergence measure employed by other footprinting approaches. In addition to measuring the divergence, Vestige allows the expansion of the definition of a phylogenetic footprint to include variation in the distribution of any molecular evolutionary processes. This is achieved by displaying the distribution of model parameters that represent partitions of molecular evolutionary substitutions. Examination of the spatial incidence of these effects across regions of the genome can identify DNA segments that differ in the nature of the evolutionary process. Results Vestige was applied to a reference dataset of the SCL locus from four species and provided clear identification of the known conserved regions in this dataset. To demonstrate the flexibility to use diverse models of molecular evolution and dissect the nature of the evolutionary process Vestige was used to footprint the Ka/Ks ratio in primate BRCA1 with a codon model of evolution. Two regions of putative adaptive evolution were identified illustrating the ability of Vestige to represent the spatial distribution of distinct molecular evolutionary processes. Conclusion Vestige provides a flexible, open platform for phylogenetic footprinting. Underpinned by the PyEvolve toolkit, Vestige provides a framework for visualising the signatures of evolutionary processes across the genome of numerous organisms simultaneously. By exploiting the maximum-likelihood statistical framework, the complex interplay between mutational

  2. Probability state modeling theory.

    Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I


    As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.

  3. Probability distributions for magnetotellurics

    Stodt, John A.


    Estimates of the magnetotelluric transfer functions can be viewed as ratios of two complex random variables. It is assumed that the numerator and denominator are governed approximately by a joint complex normal distribution. Under this assumption, probability distributions are obtained for the magnitude, squared magnitude, logarithm of the squared magnitude, and the phase of the estimates. Normal approximations to the distributions are obtained by calculating mean values and variances from error propagation, and the distributions are plotted with their normal approximations for different percentage errors in the numerator and denominator of the estimates, ranging from 10% to 75%. The distribution of the phase is approximated well by a normal distribution for the range of errors considered, while the distribution of the logarithm of the squared magnitude is approximated by a normal distribution for a much larger range of errors than is the distribution of the squared magnitude. The distribution of the squared magnitude is most sensitive to the presence of noise in the denominator of the estimate, in which case the true distribution deviates significantly from normal behavior as the percentage errors exceed 10%. In contrast, the normal approximation to the distribution of the logarithm of the magnitude is useful for errors as large as 75%.


    吕恩琳; 钟佑明


    Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.

  5. Analytic methods in applied probability in memory of Fridrikh Karpelevich

    Suhov, Yu M


    This volume is dedicated to F. I. Karpelevich, an outstanding Russian mathematician who made important contributions to applied probability theory. The book contains original papers focusing on several areas of applied probability and its uses in modern industrial processes, telecommunications, computing, mathematical economics, and finance. It opens with a review of Karpelevich's contributions to applied probability theory and includes a bibliography of his works. Other articles discuss queueing network theory, in particular, in heavy traffic approximation (fluid models). The book is suitable

  6. Maximum entropy principle and texture formation

    Arminjon, M; Arminjon, Mayeul; Imbault, Didier


    The macro-to-micro transition in a heterogeneous material is envisaged as the selection of a probability distribution by the Principle of Maximum Entropy (MAXENT). The material is made of constituents, e.g. given crystal orientations. Each constituent is itself made of a large number of elementary constituents. The relevant probability is the volume fraction of the elementary constituents that belong to a given constituent and undergo a given stimulus. Assuming only obvious constraints in MAXENT means describing a maximally disordered material. This is proved to have the same average stimulus in each constituent. By adding a constraint in MAXENT, a new model, potentially interesting e.g. for texture prediction, is obtained.

  7. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.


    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  8. Regions of constrained maximum likelihood parameter identifiability

    Lee, C.-H.; Herget, C. J.


    This paper considers the parameter identification problem of general discrete-time, nonlinear, multiple-input/multiple-output dynamic systems with Gaussian-white distributed measurement errors. Knowledge of the system parameterization is assumed to be known. Regions of constrained maximum likelihood (CML) parameter identifiability are established. A computation procedure employing interval arithmetic is proposed for finding explicit regions of parameter identifiability for the case of linear systems. It is shown that if the vector of true parameters is locally CML identifiable, then with probability one, the vector of true parameters is a unique maximal point of the maximum likelihood function in the region of parameter identifiability and the CML estimation sequence will converge to the true parameters.

  9. CORA: Emission Line Fitting with Maximum Likelihood

    Ness, Jan-Uwe; Wichmann, Rainer


    CORA analyzes emission line spectra with low count numbers and fits them to a line using the maximum likelihood technique. CORA uses a rigorous application of Poisson statistics. From the assumption of Poissonian noise, the software derives the probability for a model of the emission line spectrum to represent the measured spectrum. The likelihood function is used as a criterion for optimizing the parameters of the theoretical spectrum and a fixed point equation is derived allowing an efficient way to obtain line fluxes. CORA has been applied to an X-ray spectrum with the Low Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer (LETGS) on board the Chandra observatory.

  10. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith


    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  11. Beat the Deviations in Estimating Maximum Power of Thermoelectric Modules

    Gao, Junling; Chen, Min


    Under a certain temperature difference, the maximum power of a thermoelectric module can be estimated by the open-circuit voltage and the short-circuit current. In practical measurement, there exist two switch modes, either from open to short or from short to open, but the two modes can give...... different estimations on the maximum power. Using TEG-127-2.8-3.5-250 and TEG-127-1.4-1.6-250 as two examples, the difference is about 10%, leading to some deviations with the temperature change. This paper analyzes such differences by means of a nonlinear numerical model of thermoelectricity, and finds out...

  12. Introduction to probability with R

    Baclawski, Kenneth


    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  13. A first course in probability

    Ross, Sheldon


    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  14. Conditionals, probability, and belief revision

    Voorbraak, F.


    A famous result obtained in the mid-seventies by David Lewis shows that a straightforward interpretation of probabilities of conditionals as conditional probabilities runs into serious trouble. In this paper we try to circumvent this trouble by defining extensions of probability functions, called

  15. The Art of Probability Assignment

    Dimitrov, Vesselin I


    The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment of probabilities based on observation is a process of inference, involving the use of Bayes' theorem and the choice of a probability prior. When a lot of data is available, the resulting probability are remarkable insensitive to the form of the prior. In the oposite case of scarse data, it is suggested that the probabilities are assigned such that they are the least sensitive to specific variations of the probability prior. In the continuous case this results in a probability assignment rule wich calls for minimizing the Fisher information subject to constraints reflecting all available information. In the discrete case, the corresponding quantity to be minimized turns out to be a Renyi distance between the original and the shifted distribution.

  16. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed


    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  17. Maximum Likelihood Analysis in the PEN Experiment

    Lehman, Martin


    The experimental determination of the π+ -->e+ ν (γ) decay branching ratio currently provides the most accurate test of lepton universality. The PEN experiment at PSI, Switzerland, aims to improve the present world average experimental precision of 3 . 3 ×10-3 to 5 ×10-4 using a stopped beam approach. During runs in 2008-10, PEN has acquired over 2 ×107 πe 2 events. The experiment includes active beam detectors (degrader, mini TPC, target), central MWPC tracking with plastic scintillator hodoscopes, and a spherical pure CsI electromagnetic shower calorimeter. The final branching ratio will be calculated using a maximum likelihood analysis. This analysis assigns each event a probability for 5 processes (π+ -->e+ ν , π+ -->μ+ ν , decay-in-flight, pile-up, and hadronic events) using Monte Carlo verified probability distribution functions of our observables (energies, times, etc). A progress report on the PEN maximum likelihood analysis will be presented. Work supported by NSF grant PHY-0970013.

  18. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Ballentine, Leslie E.


    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  19. Maximum Likelihood Under Response Biased Sampling\\ud

    Chambers, Raymond; Dorfman, Alan; Wang, Suojin


    Informative sampling occurs when the probability of inclusion in sample depends on\\ud the value of the survey response variable. Response or size biased sampling is a\\ud particular case of informative sampling where the inclusion probability is proportional\\ud to the value of this variable. In this paper we describe a general model for response\\ud biased sampling, which we call array sampling, and develop maximum likelihood and\\ud estimating equation theory appropriate to this situation. The ...

  20. 开绕组无刷双馈风力发电机最大功率点跟踪直接转矩模糊控制研究%Research on the Maximum Power Point Tracking of Brushless Doubly-Fed Wind Power Generator with Open Winding Direct Torque Fuzzy Control Strategy

    张凤阁; 朱连成; 金石; 于思洋


    Based on the principle of wind power generator maximum power point tracking ( MPPT ), combined with the special structure of brushless doubly-fed machine,which does not have brushes and slip rings, and allowing for the adopted double stator magnetic field modulation method,so that the capacity of required converters is smaller,then a novel scheme of direct torque control and fuzzy control inn brushless doubly-fed generator system is proposed,which the control winding is opened and fed with dual two-level converters. The principles of each part,i. e. the maximum power point tracking,the open winding strategy,the direct torque control,and the fuzzy control are all explained in detail. Then the MPPT of brushless doubly-fed wind power generators with the open winding direct torque fuzzy control strategy model,i. e. the control winding is fed with dual two-level SVPWM converters,is built and researched using the Matlab/Simulink software. The excellent performances are obtained by the simulation results. Finally, the correctness and feasibility of the proposed strategy are confirmed by the semi-physical simulation experimental platform,which can provide a good reference to further develop the semi-physical simulation experimental platform and the related control strategies.%基于风力发电机最大功率点跟踪原理,结合无刷双馈电机无电刷和集电环的特殊结构及采用双定子磁场调制使得所需变流器容量更小的特点,提出了一种由双两电平变流器拓扑构造三电平馈电的开绕组策略,阐述了无刷双馈风力发电机最大功率点跟踪、开绕组策略及直接转矩控制、模糊控制等各部分工作原理,进而利用Matlab/Simulink仿真软件,搭建了无刷双馈风力发电机控制绕组采用双两电平SVPWM变流器馈电实现最大功率点跟踪的开绕组直接转矩模糊控制模型,并进行了详细的性能仿真,最后,通过无刷双馈电机半实物仿真实验平台

  1. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Okjeong Lee


    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  2. Review of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) Snowmelt Analysis for Success Dam


    watershed; and the USACE reports (1998, 2013) further describe the watershed characteris- tics , vegetation, climate, precipitation, and flooding. The...distribution using HEC-SSP (USACE 2010b). The statistics are listed in Table 5 and shown in Figures 20–22. Figure 23 shows a compari- son of the SWE

  3. Hidden Variables or Positive Probabilities?

    Rothman, T; Rothman, Tony


    Despite claims that Bell's inequalities are based on the Einstein locality condition, or equivalent, all derivations make an identical mathematical assumption: that local hidden-variable theories produce a set of positive-definite probabilities for detecting a particle with a given spin orientation. The standard argument is that because quantum mechanics assumes that particles are emitted in a superposition of states the theory cannot produce such a set of probabilities. We examine a paper by Eberhard who claims to show that a generalized Bell inequality, the CHSH inequality, can be derived solely on the basis of the locality condition, without recourse to hidden variables. We point out that he nonetheless assumes a set of positive-definite probabilities, which supports the claim that hidden variables or "locality" is not at issue here, positive-definite probabilities are. We demonstrate that quantum mechanics does predict a set of probabilities that violate the CHSH inequality; however these probabilities ar...

  4. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    Sumita, Ushio


    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...


    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...


    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  7. OECD Maximum Residue Limit Calculator

    With the goal of harmonizing the calculation of maximum residue limits (MRLs) across the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the OECD has developed an MRL Calculator. View the calculator.

  8. Understanding Students' Beliefs about Probability.

    Konold, Clifford

    The concept of probability is not an easy concept for high school and college students to understand. This paper identifies and analyzes the students' alternative frameworks from the viewpoint of constructivism. There are various interpretations of probability through mathematical history: classical, frequentist, and subjectivist interpretation.…

  9. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte


    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  10. Varieties of Belief and Probability

    D.J.N. van Eijck (Jan); S. Ghosh; J. Szymanik


    htmlabstractFor reasoning about uncertain situations, we have probability theory, and we have logics of knowledge and belief. How does elementary probability theory relate to epistemic logic and the logic of belief? The paper focuses on the notion of betting belief, and interprets a language for

  11. Landau-Zener Probability Reviewed

    Valencia, C


    We examine the survival probability for neutrino propagation through matter with variable density. We present a new method to calculate the level-crossing probability that differs from Landau's method by constant factor, which is relevant in the interpretation of neutrino flux from supernova explosion.

  12. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...

  13. A graduate course in probability

    Tucker, Howard G


    Suitable for a graduate course in analytic probability, this text requires only a limited background in real analysis. Topics include probability spaces and distributions, stochastic independence, basic limiting options, strong limit theorems for independent random variables, central limit theorem, conditional expectation and Martingale theory, and an introduction to stochastic processes.

  14. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Identification Parameters and Its Correction


    By taking the subsequence out of the input-output sequence of a system polluted by white noise, anindependent observation sequence and its probability density are obtained and then a maximum likelihood estimation of theidentification parameters is given. In order to decrease the asymptotic error, a corrector of maximum likelihood (CML)estimation with its recursive algorithm is given. It has been proved that the corrector has smaller asymptotic error thanthe least square methods. A simulation example shows that the corrector of maximum likelihood estimation is of higherapproximating precision to the true parameters than the least square methods.

  15. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    Zaharopol, Radu


    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  16. Linear Positivity and Virtual Probability

    Hartle, J B


    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. A quantum theory of closed systems requires two elements; 1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory, and 2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time-neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to i...

  17. Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model

    LUO Jian-hua


    In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.

  18. The Analysis of Insulation Breakdown Probabilities by the Up-And-Down Method

    Vibholm (fratrådt), Svend; Thyregod, Poul


    This paper discusses the assessment of breakdown probability by means of the up-and-down method. The Dixon and Mood approximation to the maximum-likelihood estimate is compared with the exact maximum-likelihood estimate for a number of response patterns. Estimates of the 50D probability breakdown...

  19. Probability


    People much given to gambling usually manage to work out rough-and-ready ways of measuring the likelihood of certain situations so as to know which way to bet their money, and how much. If they did not do this., they would quickly lose all their money to those who did.

  20. Exploiting the Maximum Entropy Principle to Increase Retrieval Effectiveness.

    Cooper, William S.


    Presents information retrieval design approach in which queries of computer-based system consist of sets of terms, either unweighted or weighted with subjective term precision estimates, and retrieval outputs ranked by probability of usefulness estimated by "maximum entropy principle." Boolean and weighted request systems are discussed.…

  1. On the maximum entropy principle in non-extensive thermostatistics

    Naudts, Jan


    It is possible to derive the maximum entropy principle from thermodynamic stability requirements. Using as a starting point the equilibrium probability distribution, currently used in non-extensive thermostatistics, it turns out that the relevant entropy function is Renyi's alpha-entropy, and not Tsallis' entropy.

  2. Maximum margin Bayesian network classifiers.

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael; Tschiatschek, Sebastian


    We present a maximum margin parameter learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers using a conjugate gradient (CG) method for optimization. In contrast to previous approaches, we maintain the normalization constraints on the parameters of the Bayesian network during optimization, i.e., the probabilistic interpretation of the model is not lost. This enables us to handle missing features in discriminatively optimized Bayesian networks. In experiments, we compare the classification performance of maximum margin parameter learning to conditional likelihood and maximum likelihood learning approaches. Discriminative parameter learning significantly outperforms generative maximum likelihood estimation for naive Bayes and tree augmented naive Bayes structures on all considered data sets. Furthermore, maximizing the margin dominates the conditional likelihood approach in terms of classification performance in most cases. We provide results for a recently proposed maximum margin optimization approach based on convex relaxation. While the classification results are highly similar, our CG-based optimization is computationally up to orders of magnitude faster. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve classification performance comparable to support vector machines (SVMs) using fewer parameters. Moreover, we show that unanticipated missing feature values during classification can be easily processed by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  3. Maximum Entropy in Drug Discovery

    Chih-Yuan Tseng


    Full Text Available Drug discovery applies multidisciplinary approaches either experimentally, computationally or both ways to identify lead compounds to treat various diseases. While conventional approaches have yielded many US Food and Drug Administration (FDA-approved drugs, researchers continue investigating and designing better approaches to increase the success rate in the discovery process. In this article, we provide an overview of the current strategies and point out where and how the method of maximum entropy has been introduced in this area. The maximum entropy principle has its root in thermodynamics, yet since Jaynes’ pioneering work in the 1950s, the maximum entropy principle has not only been used as a physics law, but also as a reasoning tool that allows us to process information in hand with the least bias. Its applicability in various disciplines has been abundantly demonstrated. We give several examples of applications of maximum entropy in different stages of drug discovery. Finally, we discuss a promising new direction in drug discovery that is likely to hinge on the ways of utilizing maximum entropy.

  4. Image coding based on maximum entropy partitioning for identifying improbable intensities related to facial expressions



    In this paper we investigate information-theoretic image coding techniques that assign longer codes to improbable, imprecise and non-distinct intensities in the image. The variable length coding techniques when applied to cropped facial images of subjects with different facial expressions, highlight the set of low probability intensities that characterize the facial expression such as the creases in the forehead, the widening of the eyes and the opening and closing of the mouth. A new coding scheme based on maximum entropy partitioning is proposed in our work, particularly to identify the improbable intensities related to different emotions. The improbable intensities when used as a mask decode the facial expression correctly, providing an effectiveplatform for future emotion categorization experiments

  5. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A


    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Maximum Information and Quantum Prediction Algorithms

    McElwaine, J N


    This paper describes an algorithm for selecting a consistent set within the consistent histories approach to quantum mechanics and investigates its properties. The algorithm uses a maximum information principle to select from among the consistent sets formed by projections defined by the Schmidt decomposition. The algorithm unconditionally predicts the possible events in closed quantum systems and ascribes probabilities to these events. A simple spin model is described and a complete classification of all exactly consistent sets of histories formed from Schmidt projections in the model is proved. This result is used to show that for this example the algorithm selects a physically realistic set. Other tentative suggestions in the literature for set selection algorithms using ideas from information theory are discussed.

  7. Probability with applications and R

    Dobrow, Robert P


    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  8. Probability Ranking in Vector Spaces

    Melucci, Massimo


    The Probability Ranking Principle states that the document set with the highest values of probability of relevance optimizes information retrieval effectiveness given the probabilities are estimated as accurately as possible. The key point of the principle is the separation of the document set into two subsets with a given level of fallout and with the highest recall. The paper introduces the separation between two vector subspaces and shows that the separation yields a more effective performance than the optimal separation into subsets with the same available evidence, the performance being measured with recall and fallout. The result is proved mathematically and exemplified experimentally.

  9. Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.

    Bousso, Raphael


    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  10. Local Causality, Probability and Explanation

    Healey, Richard A


    In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say about that notion. But assumptions about probability are implicit in his arguments and conclusions. Probability does not conform to these assumptions when quantum mechanics is applied to account for the particular correlations Bell argues are locally inexplicable. This account involves no superluminal action and there is even a sense in which it is local, but it is in tension with the requirement that the direct causes and effects of events are nearby.

  11. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    Laplace, Marquis de


    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  12. Stationary properties of maximum-entropy random walks.

    Dixit, Purushottam D


    Maximum-entropy (ME) inference of state probabilities using state-dependent constraints is popular in the study of complex systems. In stochastic systems, how state space topology and path-dependent constraints affect ME-inferred state probabilities remains unknown. To that end, we derive the transition probabilities and the stationary distribution of a maximum path entropy Markov process subject to state- and path-dependent constraints. A main finding is that the stationary distribution over states differs significantly from the Boltzmann distribution and reflects a competition between path multiplicity and imposed constraints. We illustrate our results with particle diffusion on a two-dimensional landscape. Connections with the path integral approach to diffusion are discussed.

  13. Opening Talk: Opening Talk

    Doebner, H.-D.


    Ladies and Gentlemen Dear Friends and Colleagues I welcome you at the 5th International Symposium `Quantum Theory and Symmetries, QTS5' in Valladolid as Chairman of the Conference Board of this biannual series. The aim of the series is to arrange an international meeting place for scientists working in theoretical and mathematical physics, in mathematics, in mathematical biology and chemistry and in other sciences for the presentation and discussion of recent developments in connection with quantum physics and chemistry, material science and related further fields, like life sciences and engineering, which are based on mathematical methods which can be applied to model and to understand microphysical and other systems through inherent symmetries in their widest sense. These systems include, e.g., foundations and extensions of quantum theory; quantum probability; quantum optics and quantum information; the description of nonrelativistic, finite dimensional and chaotic systems; quantum field theory, particle physics, string theory and quantum gravity. Symmetries in their widest sense describe properties of a system which could be modelled, e.g., through geometry, group theory, topology, algebras, differential geometry, noncommutative geometry, functional analysis and approximation methods; numerical evaluation techniques are necessary to connect such symmetries with experimental results. If you ask for a more detailed characterisation of this notion a hand waving indirect answer is: Collect titles and contents of the contributions of the proceedings of QTS4 and get a characterisation through semantic closure. Quantum theory and its Symmetries was and is a diversified and rapidly growing field. The number of and the types of systems with an internal symmetry and the corresponding mathematical models develop fast. This is reflected in the content of the five former international symposia of this series: The first symposium, QTS1-1999, was organized in Goslar (Germany

  14. Open access

    Valkenburg, P.M.


    Open access week Van 19 tot en met 25 oktober 2015 vond wereldwijd de Open Access Week plaats. Tijdens deze week werden er over de hele wereld evenementen georganiseerd waar open access een rol speelt. Ook in Nederland zijn er diverse symposia, workshops en debatten georganiseerd zoals het debat in

  15. Diurnal distribution of sunshine probability

    Aydinli, S.


    The diurnal distribution of the sunshine probability is essential for the predetermination of average irradiances and illuminances by solar radiation on sloping surfaces. The most meteorological stations have only monthly average values of the sunshine duration available. It is, therefore, necessary to compute the diurnal distribution of sunshine probability starting from the average monthly values. It is shown how the symmetric component of the distribution of the sunshine probability which is a consequence of a ''sidescene effect'' of the clouds can be calculated. The asymmetric components of the sunshine probability depending on the location and the seasons and their influence on the predetermination of the global radiation are investigated and discussed.

  16. Probability representation of classical states

    Man'ko, OV; Man'ko, [No Value; Pilyavets, OV


    Probability representation of classical states described by symplectic tomograms is discussed. Tomographic symbols of classical observables which are functions on phase-space are studied. Explicit form of kernel of commutative star-product of the tomographic symbols is obtained.

  17. Introduction to probability and measure

    Parthasarathy, K R


    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  18. The probabilities of unique events.

    Sangeet S Khemlani

    Full Text Available Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable.

  19. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P


    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.

  20. Default probabilities and default correlations

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans


    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  1. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    de Barros, J Acacio


    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantum-like response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  2. Three lectures on free probability


    These are notes from a three-lecture mini-course on free probability given at MSRI in the Fall of 2010 and repeated a year later at Harvard. The lectures were aimed at mathematicians and mathematical physicists working in combinatorics, probability, and random matrix theory. The first lecture was a staged rediscovery of free independence from first principles, the second dealt with the additive calculus of free random variables, and the third focused on random matrix models.

  3. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

    Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.


    Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize

  4. The Maximum Density of Water.

    Greenslade, Thomas B., Jr.


    Discusses a series of experiments performed by Thomas Hope in 1805 which show the temperature at which water has its maximum density. Early data cast into a modern form as well as guidelines and recent data collected from the author provide background for duplicating Hope's experiments in the classroom. (JN)

  5. Abolishing the maximum tension principle

    Dabrowski, Mariusz P


    We find the series of example theories for which the relativistic limit of maximum tension $F_{max} = c^2/4G$ represented by the entropic force can be abolished. Among them the varying constants theories, some generalized entropy models applied both for cosmological and black hole horizons as well as some generalized uncertainty principle models.

  6. Abolishing the maximum tension principle

    Mariusz P. Da̧browski


    Full Text Available We find the series of example theories for which the relativistic limit of maximum tension Fmax=c4/4G represented by the entropic force can be abolished. Among them the varying constants theories, some generalized entropy models applied both for cosmological and black hole horizons as well as some generalized uncertainty principle models.

  7. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    Dworsky, Lawrence N


    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  8. The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24


    We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum ampli-tude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise predictionof the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despiteprogress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical character-istics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, ahigh rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, dependingon the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascendingphase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of thecycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the startof the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximumamplitude.

  9. Maximum Genus of Strong Embeddings

    Er-ling Wei; Yan-pei Liu; Han Ren


    The strong embedding conjecture states that any 2-connected graph has a strong embedding on some surface. It implies the circuit double cover conjecture: Any 2-connected graph has a circuit double cover.Conversely, it is not true. But for a 3-regular graph, the two conjectures are equivalent. In this paper, a characterization of graphs having a strong embedding with exactly 3 faces, which is the strong embedding of maximum genus, is given. In addition, some graphs with the property are provided. More generally, an upper bound of the maximum genus of strong embeddings of a graph is presented too. Lastly, it is shown that the interpolation theorem is true to planar Halin graph.

  10. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang


    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  11. Alternative Multiview Maximum Entropy Discrimination.

    Chao, Guoqing; Sun, Shiliang


    Maximum entropy discrimination (MED) is a general framework for discriminative estimation based on maximum entropy and maximum margin principles, and can produce hard-margin support vector machines under some assumptions. Recently, the multiview version of MED multiview MED (MVMED) was proposed. In this paper, we try to explore a more natural MVMED framework by assuming two separate distributions p1( Θ1) over the first-view classifier parameter Θ1 and p2( Θ2) over the second-view classifier parameter Θ2 . We name the new MVMED framework as alternative MVMED (AMVMED), which enforces the posteriors of two view margins to be equal. The proposed AMVMED is more flexible than the existing MVMED, because compared with MVMED, which optimizes one relative entropy, AMVMED assigns one relative entropy term to each of the two views, thus incorporating a tradeoff between the two views. We give the detailed solving procedure, which can be divided into two steps. The first step is solving our optimization problem without considering the equal margin posteriors from two views, and then, in the second step, we consider the equal posteriors. Experimental results on multiple real-world data sets verify the effectiveness of the AMVMED, and comparisons with MVMED are also reported.

  12. Detonation probabilities of high explosives

    Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.; Bement, T.R.


    The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.

  13. Probability theory a foundational course

    Pakshirajan, R P


    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.


    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich


    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  15. Approximation methods in probability theory

    Čekanavičius, Vydas


    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  16. Probability on real Lie algebras

    Franz, Uwe


    This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.

  17. Combining Experiments and Simulations Using the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Boomsma, Wouter; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten


    are not in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The principle of maximum entropy is a general procedure for constructing probability distributions in the light of new data, making it a natural tool in cases when an initial model provides results that are at odds with experiments. The number of maximum entropy...... in the context of a simple example, after which we proceed with a real-world application in the field of molecular simulations, where the maximum entropy procedure has recently provided new insight. Given the limited accuracy of force fields, macromolecular simulations sometimes produce results....... Three very recent papers have explored this problem using the maximum entropy approach, providing both new theoretical and practical insights to the problem. We highlight each of these contributions in turn and conclude with a discussion on remaining challenges....

  18. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    Olofsson, Peter


    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  19. Innovation and social probable knowledge

    Marco Crocco


    In this paper some elements of Keynes's theory of probability are used to understand the process of diffusion of an innovation. Based on a work done elsewhere (Crocco 1999, 2000), we argue that this process can be viewed as a process of dealing with the collective uncertainty about how to sort a technological problem. Expanding the concepts of weight of argument and probable knowledge to deal with this kind of uncertainty we argue that the concepts of social weight of argument and social prob...

  20. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)


    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  1. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    Allen, Arnold O


    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  2. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

    Richard F Murray


    Full Text Available Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods

  3. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making

    Murray, Richard F.; Patel, Khushbu; Yee, Alan


    Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models’ performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods provide new tools

  4. Comments on quantum probability theory.

    Sloman, Steven


    Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.

  5. Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy

    Kerstin Andersson


    Full Text Available The problem  addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts  of guessing  a word of a certain  length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations  to a natural language are considered.  The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations  are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses.  Several  kinds of approximations  are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic  sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated  within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions.  For many probability  distributions,  the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion  of guesses needed on average compared to the total number  decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic  expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.

  6. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe


    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  7. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  8. Fuzzy Markov chains: uncertain probabilities


    We consider finite Markov chains where there are uncertainties in some of the transition probabilities. These uncertainties are modeled by fuzzy numbers. Using a restricted fuzzy matrix multiplication we investigate the properties of regular, and absorbing, fuzzy Markov chains and show that the basic properties of these classical Markov chains generalize to fuzzy Markov chains.

  9. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe


    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  10. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    Gintautas, Tomas

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha...

  11. A Novel Approach to Probability

    Kafri, Oded


    When P indistinguishable balls are randomly distributed among L distinguishable boxes, and considering the dense system in which P much greater than L, our natural intuition tells us that the box with the average number of balls has the highest probability and that none of boxes are empty; however in reality, the probability of the empty box is always the highest. This fact is with contradistinction to sparse system in which the number of balls is smaller than the number of boxes (i.e. energy distribution in gas) in which the average value has the highest probability. Here we show that when we postulate the requirement that all possible configurations of balls in the boxes have equal probabilities, a realistic "long tail" distribution is obtained. This formalism when applied for sparse systems converges to distributions in which the average is preferred. We calculate some of the distributions resulted from this postulate and obtain most of the known distributions in nature, namely, Zipf law, Benford law, part...

  12. Probability representations of fuzzy systems

    LI Hongxing


    In this paper, the probability significance of fuzzy systems is revealed. It is pointed out that COG method, a defuzzification technique used commonly in fuzzy systems, is reasonable and is the optimal method in the sense of mean square. Based on different fuzzy implication operators, several typical probability distributions such as Zadeh distribution, Mamdani distribution, Lukasiewicz distribution, etc. are given. Those distributions act as "inner kernels" of fuzzy systems. Furthermore, by some properties of probability distributions of fuzzy systems, it is also demonstrated that CRI method, proposed by Zadeh, for constructing fuzzy systems is basically reasonable and effective. Besides, the special action of uniform probability distributions in fuzzy systems is characterized. Finally, the relationship between CRI method and triple I method is discussed. In the sense of construction of fuzzy systems, when restricting three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method to the same operator, CRI method and triple I method may be related in the following three basic ways: 1) Two methods are equivalent; 2) the latter is a degeneration of the former; 3) the latter is trivial whereas the former is not. When three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method are not restricted to the same operator, CRI method is a special case of triple I method; that is, triple I method is a more comprehensive algorithm. Since triple I method has a good logical foundation and comprises an idea of optimization of reasoning, triple I method will possess a beautiful vista of application.

  13. Open hardware for open science

    CERN Bulletin


    Inspired by the open source software movement, the Open Hardware Repository was created to enable hardware developers to share the results of their R&D activities. The recently published CERN Open Hardware Licence offers the legal framework to support this knowledge and technology exchange.   Two years ago, a group of electronics designers led by Javier Serrano, a CERN engineer, working in experimental physics laboratories created the Open Hardware Repository (OHR). This project was initiated in order to facilitate the exchange of hardware designs across the community in line with the ideals of “open science”. The main objectives include avoiding duplication of effort by sharing results across different teams that might be working on the same need. “For hardware developers, the advantages of open hardware are numerous. For example, it is a great learning tool for technologies some developers would not otherwise master, and it avoids unnecessary work if someone ha...

  14. Cacti with maximum Kirchhoff index

    Wang, Wen-Rui; Pan, Xiang-Feng


    The concept of resistance distance was first proposed by Klein and Randi\\'c. The Kirchhoff index $Kf(G)$ of a graph $G$ is the sum of resistance distance between all pairs of vertices in $G$. A connected graph $G$ is called a cactus if each block of $G$ is either an edge or a cycle. Let $Cat(n;t)$ be the set of connected cacti possessing $n$ vertices and $t$ cycles, where $0\\leq t \\leq \\lfloor\\frac{n-1}{2}\\rfloor$. In this paper, the maximum kirchhoff index of cacti are characterized, as well...

  15. Generic maximum likely scale selection

    Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Loog, Marco; Markussen, Bo


    The fundamental problem of local scale selection is addressed by means of a novel principle, which is based on maximum likelihood estimation. The principle is generally applicable to a broad variety of image models and descriptors, and provides a generic scale estimation methodology. The focus...... on second order moments of multiple measurements outputs at a fixed location. These measurements, which reflect local image structure, consist in the cases considered here of Gaussian derivatives taken at several scales and/or having different derivative orders....


    Huo Hua; Li Zhuguo; Xia Yanchun


    A method of applying maximum entropy probability density estimation approach to constituting diagnostic criterions of oil monitoring data is presented. The method promotes the precision of diagnostic criterions for evaluating the wear state of mechanical facilities, and judging abnormal data. According to the critical boundary points defined, a new measure on monitoring wear state and identifying probable wear faults can be got. The method can be applied to spectrometric analysis and direct reading ferrographic analysis. On the basis of the analysis and discussion of two examples of 8NVD48A-2U diesel engines, the practicality is proved to be an effective method in oil monitoring.

  17. Open Access

    Suber, Peter


    The Internet lets us share perfect copies of our work with a worldwide audience at virtually no cost. We take advantage of this revolutionary opportunity when we make our work "open access": digital, online, free of charge, and free of most copyright and licensing restrictions. Open access is made possible by the Internet and copyright-holder…

  18. Open Access

    Suber, Peter


    The Internet lets us share perfect copies of our work with a worldwide audience at virtually no cost. We take advantage of this revolutionary opportunity when we make our work "open access": digital, online, free of charge, and free of most copyright and licensing restrictions. Open access is made possible by the Internet and copyright-holder…

  19. Volcano shapes, entropies, and eruption probabilities

    Gudmundsson, Agust; Mohajeri, Nahid


    assess the probability of eruptions in relation to the shape of the volcano. These methods can also be applied to the probability of injected dykes reaching the surface in a volcano. We show how the thickness distributions of dykes can be used to estimated their height (dip-dimension) distributions and, for a given magma source and volcano geometry, their probability of erupting. From the calculated energy (mainly elastic and thermal) of the host volcano, and other constraints, the maximum-entropy method can be used to improve the reliability of the assessment of the likelihood of eruption during an unrest period. Becerril, L., Galindo, I., Gudmundsson, A., Morales, J.M., 2013. Depth of origin of magma in eruptions. Sci. Rep., 3 : 2762, doi: 10.1038/srep02762 Gudmundsson, A., 2012 Strengths and strain energies of volcanic edifices: implications for eruptions, collapse calderas, and landslides. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2241-2258. Gudmundsson, A., Mohajeri, N., 2013. Relations between the scaling exponents, entropies, and energies of fracture networks. Bull. Geol. Soc. France, 184, 377-387. Mohajeri, N., Gudmundsson, A., 2012. Entropies and scaling exponents of street and fracture networks. Entropy, 14, 800-833.

  20. Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements

    Vallejo, J. J.; Hejduk, M. D.; Stamey, J. D.


    A simple model is proposed to predict the behavior of Probabilities of Collision (P(sub c)) for conjunction events. The model attempts to predict the location and magnitude of the peak P(sub c) value for an event by assuming the progression of P(sub c) values can be modeled to first order by a downward-opening parabola. To incorporate prior information from a large database of past conjunctions, the Bayes paradigm is utilized; and the operating characteristics of the model are established through a large simulation study. Though the model is simple, it performs well in predicting the temporal location of the peak (P(sub c)) and thus shows promise as a decision aid in operational conjunction assessment risk analysis.

  1. Maximum-entropy distributions of correlated variables with prespecified marginals.

    Larralde, Hernán


    The problem of determining the joint probability distributions for correlated random variables with prespecified marginals is considered. When the joint distribution satisfying all the required conditions is not unique, the "most unbiased" choice corresponds to the distribution of maximum entropy. The calculation of the maximum-entropy distribution requires the solution of rather complicated nonlinear coupled integral equations, exact solutions to which are obtained for the case of Gaussian marginals; otherwise, the solution can be expressed as a perturbation around the product of the marginals if the marginal moments exist.

  2. Parameter estimation in X-ray astronomy using maximum likelihood

    Wachter, K.; Leach, R.; Kellogg, E.


    Methods of estimation of parameter values and confidence regions by maximum likelihood and Fisher efficient scores starting from Poisson probabilities are developed for the nonlinear spectral functions commonly encountered in X-ray astronomy. It is argued that these methods offer significant advantages over the commonly used alternatives called minimum chi-squared because they rely on less pervasive statistical approximations and so may be expected to remain valid for data of poorer quality. Extensive numerical simulations of the maximum likelihood method are reported which verify that the best-fit parameter value and confidence region calculations are correct over a wide range of input spectra.

  3. Economics and Maximum Entropy Production

    Lorenz, R. D.


    Price differentials, sales volume and profit can be seen as analogues of temperature difference, heat flow and work or entropy production in the climate system. One aspect in which economic systems exhibit more clarity than the climate is that the empirical and/or statistical mechanical tendency for systems to seek a maximum in production is very evident in economics, in that the profit motive is very clear. Noting the common link between 1/f noise, power laws and Self-Organized Criticality with Maximum Entropy Production, the power law fluctuations in security and commodity prices is not inconsistent with the analogy. There is an additional thermodynamic analogy, in that scarcity is valued. A commodity concentrated among a few traders is valued highly by the many who do not have it. The market therefore encourages via prices the spreading of those goods among a wider group, just as heat tends to diffuse, increasing entropy. I explore some empirical price-volume relationships of metals and meteorites in this context.

  4. Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.

    Brenner, Charles H


    The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of

  5. Open Source and Open Standards

    Koper, Rob


    Publication reference: Koper, R. (2008). Open Source and Open Standards. In J. M. Spector, M. Merrill, J. van Merriënboer & M. P. Driscol (Eds.), Handbook of Research on Educational Communications and Technology (3rd ed., pp. 355-368). New York: Routledge.

  6. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Andre; C. R. Martins


    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  7. Cluster pre-existence probability

    Rajeswari, N.S.; Vijayaraghavan, K.R.; Balasubramaniam, M. [Bharathiar University, Department of Physics, Coimbatore (India)


    Pre-existence probability of the fragments for the complete binary spectrum of different systems such as {sup 56}Ni, {sup 116}Ba, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 256}Fm are calculated, from the overlapping part of the interaction potential using the WKB approximation. The role of reduced mass as well as the classical hydrodynamical mass in the WKB method is analysed. Within WKB, even for negative Q -value systems, the pre-existence probability is calculated. The calculations reveal rich structural information. The calculated results are compared with the values of preformed cluster model of Gupta and collaborators. The mass asymmetry motion is shown here for the first time as a part of relative separation motion. (orig.)

  8. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    Puhalskii, Anatolii


    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  9. Sm Transition Probabilities and Abundances

    Lawler, J E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J


    Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 212 odd-parity levels of Sm II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier-transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for more than 900 lines of Sm II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Sm II transition probabilities using modern methods. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Sm abundance, log epsilon = 1.00 +/- 0.03, from 26 lines. The spectra of three very metal-poor, neutron-capture-rich stars also have been analyzed, employing between 55 and 72 Sm II lines per star. The abundance ratios of Sm relative to other rare earth elements in these stars are in agreement, and are consistent with ratios expected from rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis (the r-process).

  10. Knot probabilities in random diagrams

    Cantarella, Jason; Chapman, Harrison; Mastin, Matt


    We consider a natural model of random knotting—choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings are unknots (about 78% of the roughly 1.6 billion 10 crossing diagrams). For these crossing numbers, the unknot fraction is mostly explained by the prevalence of ‘tree-like’ diagrams which are unknots for any assignment of over/under information at crossings. The data shows a roughly linear relationship between the log of knot type probability and the log of the frequency rank of the knot type, analogous to Zipf’s law for word frequency. The complete tabulation and all knot frequencies are included as supplementary data.

  11. Probability distributions for multimeric systems.

    Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne


    We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.

  12. Asbestos and Probable Microscopic Polyangiitis

    George S Rashed Philteos


    Full Text Available Several inorganic dust lung diseases (pneumoconioses are associated with autoimmune diseases. Although autoimmune serological abnormalities are common in asbestosis, clinical autoimmune/collagen vascular diseases are not commonly reported. A case of pulmonary asbestosis complicated by perinuclear-antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (myeloperoxidase positive probable microscopic polyangiitis (glomerulonephritis, pericarditis, alveolitis, multineuritis multiplex is described and the possible immunological mechanisms whereby asbestosis fibres might be relevant in induction of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies are reviewed in the present report.

  13. Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning


    3–6] and they underlie mathematics , science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason - ing. However, individuals in the grip...Press 10 Nickerson, R. (2011) Mathematical Reasoning : Patterns, Problems, Conjectures, and Proofs, Taylor & Francis 11 Blanchette, E. and Richards, A...Logic, probability, and human reasoning P.N. Johnson-Laird1,2, Sangeet S. Khemlani3, and Geoffrey P. Goodwin4 1 Princeton University, Princeton, NJ

  14. Probability and statistics: A reminder

    Clément Benoit


    Full Text Available The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from “data analysis in experimental sciences” given in [1

  15. Probability Measures on Groups IX


    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  16. Objects of maximum electromagnetic chirality

    Fernandez-Corbaton, Ivan


    We introduce a definition of the electromagnetic chirality of an object and show that it has an upper bound. The upper bound is attained if and only if the object is transparent for fields of one handedness (helicity). Additionally, electromagnetic duality symmetry, i.e. helicity preservation upon scattering, turns out to be a necessary condition for reciprocal scatterers to attain the upper bound. We use these results to provide requirements for the design of such extremal scatterers. The requirements can be formulated as constraints on the polarizability tensors for dipolar scatterers or as material constitutive relations. We also outline two applications for objects of maximum electromagnetic chirality: A twofold resonantly enhanced and background free circular dichroism measurement setup, and angle independent helicity filtering glasses.

  17. Maximum mutual information regularized classification

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan


    In this paper, a novel pattern classification approach is proposed by regularizing the classifier learning to maximize mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. We argue that, with the learned classifier, the uncertainty of the true class label of a data sample should be reduced by knowing its classification response as much as possible. The reduced uncertainty is measured by the mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. To this end, when learning a linear classifier, we propose to maximize the mutual information between classification responses and true class labels of training samples, besides minimizing the classification error and reducing the classifier complexity. An objective function is constructed by modeling mutual information with entropy estimation, and it is optimized by a gradient descend method in an iterative algorithm. Experiments on two real world pattern classification problems show the significant improvements achieved by maximum mutual information regularization.

  18. The strong maximum principle revisited

    Pucci, Patrizia; Serrin, James

    In this paper we first present the classical maximum principle due to E. Hopf, together with an extended commentary and discussion of Hopf's paper. We emphasize the comparison technique invented by Hopf to prove this principle, which has since become a main mathematical tool for the study of second order elliptic partial differential equations and has generated an enormous number of important applications. While Hopf's principle is generally understood to apply to linear equations, it is in fact also crucial in nonlinear theories, such as those under consideration here. In particular, we shall treat and discuss recent generalizations of the strong maximum principle, and also the compact support principle, for the case of singular quasilinear elliptic differential inequalities, under generally weak assumptions on the quasilinear operators and the nonlinearities involved. Our principal interest is in necessary and sufficient conditions for the validity of both principles; in exposing and simplifying earlier proofs of corresponding results; and in extending the conclusions to wider classes of singular operators than previously considered. The results have unexpected ramifications for other problems, as will develop from the exposition, e.g. two point boundary value problems for singular quasilinear ordinary differential equations (Sections 3 and 4); the exterior Dirichlet boundary value problem (Section 5); the existence of dead cores and compact support solutions, i.e. dead cores at infinity (Section 7); Euler-Lagrange inequalities on a Riemannian manifold (Section 9); comparison and uniqueness theorems for solutions of singular quasilinear differential inequalities (Section 10). The case of p-regular elliptic inequalities is briefly considered in Section 11.

  19. Objective probability and quantum fuzziness

    Mohrhoff, U


    This paper offers a critique of the Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics in general and of a recent paper by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack in particular (quant-ph/0608190 v2). In this paper the Bayesian interpretation of Born probabilities is defended against what the authors call the "objective-preparations view". The fact that Caves et al. and the proponents of this view equally misconstrue the time dependence of quantum states, voids the arguments pressed by the former against the latter. After tracing the genealogy of this common error, I argue that the real oxymoron is not an unknown quantum state, as the Bayesians hold, but an unprepared quantum state. I further argue that the essential role of probability in quantum theory is to define and quantify an objective fuzziness. This, more than anything, legitimizes conjoining "objective" to "probability". The measurement problem is essentially the problem of finding a coherent way of thinking about this objective fuzziness, and about the supervenience of the ma...

  20. Maximum-entropy principle as Galerkin modelling paradigm

    Noack, Bernd R.; Niven, Robert K.; Rowley, Clarence W.


    We show how the empirical Galerkin method, leading e.g. to POD models, can be derived from maximum-entropy principles building on Noack & Niven 2012 JFM. In particular, principles are proposed (1) for the Galerkin expansion, (2) for the Galerkin system identification, and (3) for the probability distribution of the attractor. Examples will illustrate the advantages of the entropic modelling paradigm. Partially supported by the ANR Chair of Excellence TUCOROM and an ADFA/UNSW Visiting Fellowship.

  1. Empirical and Computational Tsunami Probability

    Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lee, H. J.


    A key component in assessing the hazard posed by tsunamis is quantification of tsunami likelihood or probability. To determine tsunami probability, one needs to know the distribution of tsunami sizes and the distribution of inter-event times. Both empirical and computational methods can be used to determine these distributions. Empirical methods rely on an extensive tsunami catalog and hence, the historical data must be carefully analyzed to determine whether the catalog is complete for a given runup or wave height range. Where site-specific historical records are sparse, spatial binning techniques can be used to perform a regional, empirical analysis. Global and site-specific tsunami catalogs suggest that tsunami sizes are distributed according to a truncated or tapered power law and inter-event times are distributed according to an exponential distribution modified to account for clustering of events in time. Computational methods closely follow Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), where size and inter-event distributions are determined for tsunami sources, rather than tsunamis themselves as with empirical analysis. In comparison to PSHA, a critical difference in the computational approach to tsunami probabilities is the need to account for far-field sources. The three basic steps in computational analysis are (1) determination of parameter space for all potential sources (earthquakes, landslides, etc.), including size and inter-event distributions; (2) calculation of wave heights or runup at coastal locations, typically performed using numerical propagation models; and (3) aggregation of probabilities from all sources and incorporation of uncertainty. It is convenient to classify two different types of uncertainty: epistemic (or knowledge-based) and aleatory (or natural variability). Correspondingly, different methods have been traditionally used to incorporate uncertainty during aggregation, including logic trees and direct integration. Critical

  2. Open IS

    Germonprez, Matt; Crowston, Kevin; Avital, Michel


    The collective intelligence and collective action of “open” communities have produced a variety of complex knowledge goods and radical social change. The Information Systems (IS) community has invested significant effort into researching open communities and the ecosystems in which they operate...... therefore seeks to stimulate a thoughtful and dynamic discussion around the proposition that becoming a more open community will enhance the IS discipline’s scholarly inquiry and global impact....

  3. Open IS

    Germonprez, Matt; Crowston, Kevin; Avital, Michel


    The collective intelligence and collective action of “open” communities have produced a variety of complex knowledge goods and radical social change. The Information Systems (IS) community has invested significant effort into researching open communities and the ecosystems in which they operate...... therefore seeks to stimulate a thoughtful and dynamic discussion around the proposition that becoming a more open community will enhance the IS discipline’s scholarly inquiry and global impact....

  4. Maximum entropy production and plant optimization theories.

    Dewar, Roderick C


    Plant ecologists have proposed a variety of optimization theories to explain the adaptive behaviour and evolution of plants from the perspective of natural selection ('survival of the fittest'). Optimization theories identify some objective function--such as shoot or canopy photosynthesis, or growth rate--which is maximized with respect to one or more plant functional traits. However, the link between these objective functions and individual plant fitness is seldom quantified and there remains some uncertainty about the most appropriate choice of objective function to use. Here, plants are viewed from an alternative thermodynamic perspective, as members of a wider class of non-equilibrium systems for which maximum entropy production (MEP) has been proposed as a common theoretical principle. I show how MEP unifies different plant optimization theories that have been proposed previously on the basis of ad hoc measures of individual fitness--the different objective functions of these theories emerge as examples of entropy production on different spatio-temporal scales. The proposed statistical explanation of MEP, that states of MEP are by far the most probable ones, suggests a new and extended paradigm for biological evolution--'survival of the likeliest'--which applies from biomacromolecules to ecosystems, not just to individuals.

  5. Maximum likelihood continuity mapping for fraud detection

    Hogden, J.


    The author describes a novel time-series analysis technique called maximum likelihood continuity mapping (MALCOM), and focuses on one application of MALCOM: detecting fraud in medical insurance claims. Given a training data set composed of typical sequences, MALCOM creates a stochastic model of sequence generation, called a continuity map (CM). A CM maximizes the probability of sequences in the training set given the model constraints, CMs can be used to estimate the likelihood of sequences not found in the training set, enabling anomaly detection and sequence prediction--important aspects of data mining. Since MALCOM can be used on sequences of categorical data (e.g., sequences of words) as well as real valued data, MALCOM is also a potential replacement for database search tools such as N-gram analysis. In a recent experiment, MALCOM was used to evaluate the likelihood of patient medical histories, where ``medical history`` is used to mean the sequence of medical procedures performed on a patient. Physicians whose patients had anomalous medical histories (according to MALCOM) were evaluated for fraud by an independent agency. Of the small sample (12 physicians) that has been evaluated, 92% have been determined fraudulent or abusive. Despite the small sample, these results are encouraging.

  6. CORA - emission line fitting with Maximum Likelihood

    Ness, J.-U.; Wichmann, R.


    The advent of pipeline-processed data both from space- and ground-based observatories often disposes of the need of full-fledged data reduction software with its associated steep learning curve. In many cases, a simple tool doing just one task, and doing it right, is all one wishes. In this spirit we introduce CORA, a line fitting tool based on the maximum likelihood technique, which has been developed for the analysis of emission line spectra with low count numbers and has successfully been used in several publications. CORA uses a rigorous application of Poisson statistics. From the assumption of Poissonian noise we derive the probability for a model of the emission line spectrum to represent the measured spectrum. The likelihood function is used as a criterion for optimizing the parameters of the theoretical spectrum and a fixed point equation is derived allowing an efficient way to obtain line fluxes. As an example we demonstrate the functionality of the program with an X-ray spectrum of Capella obtained with the Low Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer (LETGS) on board the Chandra observatory and choose the analysis of the Ne IX triplet around 13.5 Å.

  7. Measures, Probability and Holography in Cosmology

    Phillips, Daniel

    This dissertation compiles four research projects on predicting values for cosmological parameters and models of the universe on the broadest scale. The first examines the Causal Entropic Principle (CEP) in inhomogeneous cosmologies. The CEP aims to predict the unexpectedly small value of the cosmological constant Lambda using a weighting by entropy increase on causal diamonds. The original work assumed a purely isotropic and homogeneous cosmology. But even the level of inhomogeneity observed in our universe forces reconsideration of certain arguments about entropy production. In particular, we must consider an ensemble of causal diamonds associated with each background cosmology and we can no longer immediately discard entropy production in the far future of the universe. Depending on our choices for a probability measure and our treatment of black hole evaporation, the prediction for Lambda may be left intact or dramatically altered. The second related project extends the CEP to universes with curvature. We have found that curvature values larger than rho k = 40rhom are disfavored by more than $99.99% and a peak value at rhoLambda = 7.9 x 10-123 and rhok =4.3rho m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work. The third project examines how cosmologists should formulate basic questions of probability. We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We

  8. Maximum caliber inference and the stochastic Ising model

    Cafaro, Carlo; Ali, Sean Alan


    We investigate the maximum caliber variational principle as an inference algorithm used to predict dynamical properties of complex nonequilibrium, stationary, statistical systems in the presence of incomplete information. Specifically, we maximize the path entropy over discrete time step trajectories subject to normalization, stationarity, and detailed balance constraints together with a path-dependent dynamical information constraint reflecting a given average global behavior of the complex system. A general expression for the transition probability values associated with the stationary random Markov processes describing the nonequilibrium stationary system is computed. By virtue of our analysis, we uncover that a convenient choice of the dynamical information constraint together with a perturbative asymptotic expansion with respect to its corresponding Lagrange multiplier of the general expression for the transition probability leads to a formal overlap with the well-known Glauber hyperbolic tangent rule for the transition probability for the stochastic Ising model in the limit of very high temperatures of the heat reservoir.

  9. Maximum length scale in density based topology optimization

    Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov; Wang, Fengwen


    The focus of this work is on two new techniques for imposing maximum length scale in topology optimization. Restrictions on the maximum length scale provide designers with full control over the optimized structure and open possibilities to tailor the optimized design for broader range...... of manufacturing processes by fulfilling the associated technological constraints. One of the proposed methods is based on combination of several filters and builds on top of the classical density filtering which can be viewed as a low pass filter applied to the design parametrization. The main idea...

  10. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Smith, L. A.


    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  11. Recursive estimation of prior probabilities using the mixture approach

    Kazakos, D.


    The problem of estimating the prior probabilities q sub k of a mixture of known density functions f sub k(X), based on a sequence of N statistically independent observations is considered. It is shown that for very mild restrictions on f sub k(X), the maximum likelihood estimate of Q is asymptotically efficient. A recursive algorithm for estimating Q is proposed, analyzed, and optimized. For the M = 2 case, it is possible for the recursive algorithm to achieve the same performance with the maximum likelihood one. For M 2, slightly inferior performance is the price for having a recursive algorithm. However, the loss is computable and tolerable.

  12. Maximum entropy production in daisyworld

    Maunu, Haley A.; Knuth, Kevin H.


    Daisyworld was first introduced in 1983 by Watson and Lovelock as a model that illustrates how life can influence a planet's climate. These models typically involve modeling a planetary surface on which black and white daisies can grow thus influencing the local surface albedo and therefore also the temperature distribution. Since then, variations of daisyworld have been applied to study problems ranging from ecological systems to global climate. Much of the interest in daisyworld models is due to the fact that they enable one to study self-regulating systems. These models are nonlinear, and as such they exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and depending on the specifics of the model they can also exhibit feedback loops, oscillations, and chaotic behavior. Many daisyworld models are thermodynamic in nature in that they rely on heat flux and temperature gradients. However, what is not well-known is whether, or even why, a daisyworld model might settle into a maximum entropy production (MEP) state. With the aim to better understand these systems, this paper will discuss what is known about the role of MEP in daisyworld models.

  13. Maximum stellar iron core mass

    F W Giacobbe


    An analytical method of estimating the mass of a stellar iron core, just prior to core collapse, is described in this paper. The method employed depends, in part, upon an estimate of the true relativistic mass increase experienced by electrons within a highly compressed iron core, just prior to core collapse, and is significantly different from a more typical Chandrasekhar mass limit approach. This technique produced a maximum stellar iron core mass value of 2.69 × 1030 kg (1.35 solar masses). This mass value is very near to the typical mass values found for neutron stars in a recent survey of actual neutron star masses. Although slightly lower and higher neutron star masses may also be found, lower mass neutron stars are believed to be formed as a result of enhanced iron core compression due to the weight of non-ferrous matter overlying the iron cores within large stars. And, higher mass neutron stars are likely to be formed as a result of fallback or accretion of additional matter after an initial collapse event involving an iron core having a mass no greater than 2.69 × 1030 kg.

  14. Maximum Matchings via Glauber Dynamics

    Jindal, Anant; Pal, Manjish


    In this paper we study the classic problem of computing a maximum cardinality matching in general graphs $G = (V, E)$. The best known algorithm for this problem till date runs in $O(m \\sqrt{n})$ time due to Micali and Vazirani \\cite{MV80}. Even for general bipartite graphs this is the best known running time (the algorithm of Karp and Hopcroft \\cite{HK73} also achieves this bound). For regular bipartite graphs one can achieve an $O(m)$ time algorithm which, following a series of papers, has been recently improved to $O(n \\log n)$ by Goel, Kapralov and Khanna (STOC 2010) \\cite{GKK10}. In this paper we present a randomized algorithm based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo paradigm which runs in $O(m \\log^2 n)$ time, thereby obtaining a significant improvement over \\cite{MV80}. We use a Markov chain similar to the \\emph{hard-core model} for Glauber Dynamics with \\emph{fugacity} parameter $\\lambda$, which is used to sample independent sets in a graph from the Gibbs Distribution \\cite{V99}, to design a faster algori...

  15. Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems

    Sun, Mingxuan; Kidwell, Paul


    Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computation schemes using combinatorial properties of generating functions. We demonstrate our approach with several case studies involving real world movie recommendation data. The results are comparable with state-of-the-art techniques while also providing probabilistic preference estimates outside the scope of traditional recommender systems.



    This paper constructs the probability model of Gunther generator at first, and the finite dimension union distribution of the output sequence is presented. The result shows that the output sequence is an independent and uniformly distributed 0,1 random variable sequence.It gives the theoretical foundation about why Gunther generator can avoid the statistic weakness of the output sequence of stop-and-go generator, and analyzes the coincidence between output sequence and input sequences of Gunther generator. The conclusions of this paper would offer theoretical references for designers and analyzers of clock-controlled generators.

  17. 76 FR 1504 - Pipeline Safety: Establishing Maximum Allowable Operating Pressure or Maximum Operating Pressure...


    ...: Establishing Maximum Allowable Operating Pressure or Maximum Operating Pressure Using Record Evidence, and... facilities of their responsibilities, under Federal integrity management (IM) regulations, to perform... system, especially when calculating Maximum Allowable Operating Pressure (MAOP) or Maximum Operating...

  18. Maximum Likelihood Localization of Radiation Sources with unknown Source Intensity

    Baidoo-Williams, Henry E


    In this paper, we consider a novel and robust maximum likelihood approach to localizing radiation sources with unknown statistics of the source signal strength. The result utilizes the smallest number of sensors required theoretically to localize the source. It is shown, that should the source lie in the open convex hull of the sensors, precisely $N+1$ are required in $\\mathbb{R}^N, ~N \\in \\{1,\\cdots,3\\}$. It is further shown that the region of interest, the open convex hull of the sensors, is entirely devoid of false stationary points. An augmented gradient ascent algorithm with random projections should an estimate escape the convex hull is presented.

  19. Open access

    Suber, Peter


    The Internet lets us share perfect copies of our work with a worldwide audience at virtually no cost. We take advantage of this revolutionary opportunity when we make our work "open access": digital, online, free of charge, and free of most copyright and licensing restrictions. Open access is made possible by the Internet and copyright-holder consent, and many authors, musicians, filmmakers, and other creators who depend on royalties are understandably unwilling to give their consent. But for 350 years, scholars have written peer-reviewed journal articles for impact, not for money, and are free to consent to open access without losing revenue. In this concise introduction, Peter Suber tells us what open access is and isn't, how it benefits authors and readers of research, how we pay for it, how it avoids copyright problems, how it has moved from the periphery to the mainstream, and what its future may hold. Distilling a decade of Suber's influential writing and thinking about open access, this is the indispe...

  20. Maximum path information and the principle of least action for chaotic system

    Wang, Qiuping A.


    ps file, 10 Pages; A path information is defined in connection with the different possible paths of chaotic system moving in its phase space between two cells. On the basis of the assumption that the paths are differentiated by their actions, we show that the maximum path information leads to a path probability distribution as a function of action from which the well known transition probability of Brownian motion can be easily derived. An interesting result is that the most probable paths ar...

  1. Coronary ligation reduces maximum sustained swimming speed in Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

    Farrell, A P; Steffensen, J F


    The maximum aerobic swimming speed of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was measured before and after ligation of the coronary artery. Coronary artery ligation prevented blood flow to the compact layer of the ventricular myocardium, which represents 30% of the ventricular mass, and produced...... a statistically significant 35.5% reduction in maximum swimming speed. We conclude that the coronary circulation is important for maximum aerobic swimming and implicit in this conclusion is that maximum cardiac performance is probably necessary for maximum aerobic swimming performance....

  2. Open source MySQL Browser for Open Innovation

    Radu Bucea-Manea-Tonis


    Full Text Available Abstract. Our purpose is to cross-compile MySQL driver source code for Linux on Windows architecture using a tool chain in order to build a neutral valid graphic interface on 32 bits. Once achieving this goal we could say that every possible Open source application can be built and run on Windows with maximum efficiency concerning costs and resource. This browser is an example of open innovation because its source code is free for anybody willing to develop new software apps for business and uses only Open source tools.

  3. Hf Transition Probabilities and Abundances

    Lawler, J E; Labby, Z E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J; Ivans, I I


    Radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements, accurate to about +/- 5 percent, are reported for 41 odd-parity levels of Hf II. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 150 lines of Hf II. Approximately half of these new transition probabilities overlap with recent independent measurements using a similar approach. The two sets of measurements are found to be in good agreement for measurements in common. Our new laboratory data are applied to refine the hafnium photospheric solar abundance and to determine hafnium abundances in 10 metal-poor giant stars with enhanced r-process abundances. For the Sun we derive log epsilon (Hf) = 0.88 +/- 0.08 from four lines; the uncertainty is dominated by the weakness of the lines and their blending by other spectral features. Within the uncertainties of our analysis, the r-process-rich stars possess constant Hf/La and Hf/Eu abundance ratios, log epsilon (Hf...

  4. Gd Transition Probabilities and Abundances

    Den Hartog, E A; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J


    Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 49 even-parity and 14 odd-parity levels of Gd II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 611 lines of Gd II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Gd II transition probabilities and the first using a high performance Fourier transform spectrometer. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Gd abundance, log epsilon = 1.11 +/- 0.03. Revised Gd abundances have also been derived for the r-process-rich metal-poor giant stars CS 22892-052, BD+17 3248, and HD 115444. The resulting Gd/Eu abundance ratios are in very good agreement with the solar-system r-process ratio. We have employed the increasingly accurate stellar abundance determinations, resulting in large part from the more precise laboratory atomic data, to predict directly the Solar System r-process elemental...

  5. The Sherpa Maximum Likelihood Estimator

    Nguyen, D.; Doe, S.; Evans, I.; Hain, R.; Primini, F.


    A primary goal for the second release of the Chandra Source Catalog (CSC) is to include X-ray sources with as few as 5 photon counts detected in stacked observations of the same field, while maintaining acceptable detection efficiency and false source rates. Aggressive source detection methods will result in detection of many false positive source candidates. Candidate detections will then be sent to a new tool, the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), to evaluate the likelihood that a detection is a real source. MLE uses the Sherpa modeling and fitting engine to fit a model of a background and source to multiple overlapping candidate source regions. A background model is calculated by simultaneously fitting the observed photon flux in multiple background regions. This model is used to determine the quality of the fit statistic for a background-only hypothesis in the potential source region. The statistic for a background-plus-source hypothesis is calculated by adding a Gaussian source model convolved with the appropriate Chandra point spread function (PSF) and simultaneously fitting the observed photon flux in each observation in the stack. Since a candidate source may be located anywhere in the field of view of each stacked observation, a different PSF must be used for each observation because of the strong spatial dependence of the Chandra PSF. The likelihood of a valid source being detected is a function of the two statistics (for background alone, and for background-plus-source). The MLE tool is an extensible Python module with potential for use by the general Chandra user.

  6. Open Brief

    Andrew Leach


    Full Text Available To commence the thirtieth annual conference of the Society of Architectural Historians, Australia and New Zealand (SAHANZ, held on Australia’s Gold Coast in July 2013, ten delegates were invited with very little warning to take five minutes and one image to offer a provocation on the open matters of architectural history in the present moment. The term “open” was taken as the conference theme—a device used by SAHANZ meetings not so much to define the scope of papers presented as to declare the conference flavour year by year. It was not, therefore, an open conference (anything goes so much as a conference on open issues (where, indeed, to go.  The ten interlocutors were invited after the conference to document their interventions and they are presented here as a record of the preoccupations of a specific moment and institutional geography with all the idiosyncrasies and commonalities it might reveal to a broader audience.

  7. Fibonacci Sequence, Recurrence Relations, Discrete Probability Distributions and Linear Convolution

    Rajan, Arulalan; Rao, Ashok; Jamadagni, H S


    The classical Fibonacci sequence is known to exhibit many fascinating properties. In this paper, we explore the Fibonacci sequence and integer sequences generated by second order linear recurrence relations with positive integer coe?cients from the point of view of probability distributions that they induce. We obtain the generalizations of some of the known limiting properties of these probability distributions and present certain optimal properties of the classical Fibonacci sequence in this context. In addition, we also look at the self linear convolution of linear recurrence relations with positive integer coefficients. Analysis of self linear convolution is focused towards locating the maximum in the resulting sequence. This analysis, also highlights the influence that the largest positive real root, of the "characteristic equation" of the linear recurrence relations with positive integer coefficients, has on the location of the maximum. In particular, when the largest positive real root is 2,the locatio...

  8. A robust conditional approximation of marginal tail probabilities.

    Brazzale, A. R.; Ventura, L.


    The aim of this contribution is to derive a robust approximate conditional procedure used to eliminate nuisance parameters in regression and scale models. Unlike the approximations to exact conditional solutions based on the likelihood function and on the maximum likelihood estimator, the robust conditional approximation of marginal tail probabilities does not suffer from lack of robustness to model misspecification. To assess the performance of the proposed robust conditional procedure the r...

  9. Open Education and the Open Science Economy

    Peters, Michael A.


    Openness as a complex code word for a variety of digital trends and movements has emerged as an alternative mode of "social production" based on the growing and overlapping complexities of open source, open access, open archiving, open publishing, and open science. This paper argues that the openness movement with its reinforcing structure of…

  10. Likelihood Principle and Maximum Likelihood Estimator of Location Parameter for Cauchy Distribution.


    consistency (or strong consistency) of maximum likelihood estimator has been studied by many researchers, for example, Wald (1949), Wolfowitz (1953, 1965...20, 595-601. [25] Wolfowitz , J. (1953). The method of maximum likelihood and Wald theory of decision functions. Indag. Math., Vol. 15, 114-119. [26...Probability Letters Vol. 1, No. 3, 197-202. [24] Wald , A. (1949). Note on the consistency of maximum likelihood estimates. Ann. Math. Statist., Vol

  11. The preference of probability over negative values in action selection.

    Neyedli, Heather F; Welsh, Timothy N


    It has previously been found that when participants are presented with a pair of motor prospects, they can select the prospect with the largest maximum expected gain (MEG). Many of those decisions, however, were trivial because of large differences in MEG between the prospects. The purpose of the present study was to explore participants' preferences when making non-trivial decisions between two motor prospects. Participants were presented with pairs of prospects that: 1) differed in MEG with either only the values or only the probabilities differing between the prospects; and 2) had similar MEG with one prospect having a larger probability of hitting the target and a higher penalty value and the other prospect a smaller probability of hitting the target but a lower penalty value. In different experiments, participants either had 400 ms or 2000 ms to decide between the prospects. It was found that participants chose the configuration with the larger MEG more often when the probability varied between prospects than when the value varied. In pairs with similar MEGs, participants preferred a larger probability of hitting the target over a smaller penalty value. These results indicate that participants prefer probability information over negative value information in a motor selection task.

  12. CO2 maximum in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ

    V. Garçon


    Full Text Available Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs, known as suboxic layers which are mainly localized in the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems, have been expanding since the 20th "high CO2" century, probably due to global warming. OMZs are also known to significantly contribute to the oceanic production of N2O, a greenhouse gas (GHG more efficient than CO2. However, the contribution of the OMZs on the oceanic sources and sinks budget of CO2, the main GHG, still remains to be established. We present here the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC structure, associated locally with the Chilean OMZ and globally with the main most intense OMZs (O2−1 in the open ocean. To achieve this, we examine simultaneous DIC and O2 data collected off Chile during 4 cruises (2000–2002 and a monthly monitoring (2000–2001 in one of the shallowest OMZs, along with international DIC and O2 databases and climatology for other OMZs. High DIC concentrations (>2225 μmol kg−1, up to 2350 μmol kg−1 have been reported over the whole OMZ thickness, allowing the definition for all studied OMZs a Carbon Maximum Zone (CMZ. Locally off Chile, the shallow cores of the OMZ and CMZ are spatially and temporally collocated at 21° S, 30° S and 36° S despite different cross-shore, long-shore and seasonal configurations. Globally, the mean state of the main OMZs also corresponds to the largest carbon reserves of the ocean in subsurface waters. The CMZs-OMZs could then induce a positive feedback for the atmosphere during upwelling activity, as potential direct local sources of CO2. The CMZ paradoxically presents a slight "carbon deficit" in its core (~10%, meaning a DIC increase from the oxygenated ocean to the OMZ lower than the corresponding O2 decrease (assuming classical C/O molar ratios. This "carbon deficit" would be related to regional thermal mechanisms affecting faster O2 than DIC (due to the carbonate buffer effect and occurring upstream in warm waters (e.g., in the Equatorial Divergence

  13. Quasi-open inflation

    García-Bellido, J; Montes, X; Garcia-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier


    We show that a large class of two-field models of single-bubble open inflation do not lead to infinite open universes, as it was previously thought, but to an ensemble of very large but finite inflating `islands'. The reason is that the quantum tunneling responsible for the nucleation of the bubble does not occur simultaneously along both field directions and equal-time hypersurfaces in the open universe are not synchronized with equal-density or fixed-field hypersurfaces. The most probable tunneling trajectory corresponds to a zero value of the inflaton field; large values, necessary for the second period of inflation inside the bubble, only arise as localized fluctuations. The interior of each nucleated bubble will contain an infinite number of such inflating regions of comoving size of order $\\gamma^{-1}$, where $\\gamma$ depends on the parameters of the model. Each one of these islands will be a quasi-open universe. Since the volume of the hyperboloid is infinite, inflating islands with all possible values...

  14. Post-Classical Probability Theory

    Barnum, Howard


    This paper offers a brief introduction to the framework of "general probabilistic theories", otherwise known as the "convex-operational" approach the foundations of quantum mechanics. Broadly speaking, the goal of research in this vein is to locate quantum mechanics within a very much more general, but conceptually very straightforward, generalization of classical probability theory. The hope is that, by viewing quantum mechanics "from the outside", we may be able better to understand it. We illustrate several respects in which this has proved to be the case, reviewing work on cloning and broadcasting, teleportation and entanglement swapping, key distribution, and ensemble steering in this general framework. We also discuss a recent derivation of the Jordan-algebraic structure of finite-dimensional quantum theory from operationally reasonable postulates.

  15. Associativity and normative credal probability.

    Snow, P


    Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959.

  16. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    Klenke, Achim


    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  17. The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus

    Corrado Gini


    Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.

  18. The Open

    Saitya Brata Das


    Full Text Available In the Open darkness and light, remembrance and oblivion, coming into existence and disappearing in death play their originary co-belonging, or co-figuration. Existence belongs to this opening and is exposed to its coming to presence: it is on the basis of this originary opening, this originary historical which is revealed to this mortal being called ‘man,’ on the basis of this revelation, man founds something like politics and history. There thus comes into existence out of this freedom, out of this “play space”2, this field called ‘polis’3 where there takes place war and festival, where historical revolutions tear apart history, brings ruptures and discontinuities in the very mode of his existence, where man seeks the foundation of his own foundation (which is his metaphysical task , where occurs the dialectics of negativity between man and man, where man puts at stake his own death, his own dissolution, and by the power of his own dissolution stands in relation to the total world that he seeks to dominate. This means that man’s attempts to metaphysically found his own political and historical existence must presuppose a far more originary non-foundation, the differentiating revealing of the open, the ungrounded spacing play, or playing space of natality and mortality.

  19. Open innovation

    West, Joel; Bogers, Marcel


    by small, new, and not-for-profit organizations, as well as the linkage of individual actions and motivations to open innovation. Other opportunities include better measuring the costs, benefits, antecedents, mediators and moderators of the effects of OI on performance, and understanding why and how OI...

  20. Probability landscapes for integrative genomics

    Benecke Arndt


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The comprehension of the gene regulatory code in eukaryotes is one of the major challenges of systems biology, and is a requirement for the development of novel therapeutic strategies for multifactorial diseases. Its bi-fold degeneration precludes brute force and statistical approaches based on the genomic sequence alone. Rather, recursive integration of systematic, whole-genome experimental data with advanced statistical regulatory sequence predictions needs to be developed. Such experimental approaches as well as the prediction tools are only starting to become available and increasing numbers of genome sequences and empirical sequence annotations are under continual discovery-driven change. Furthermore, given the complexity of the question, a decade(s long multi-laboratory effort needs to be envisioned. These constraints need to be considered in the creation of a framework that can pave a road to successful comprehension of the gene regulatory code. Results We introduce here a concept for such a framework, based entirely on systematic annotation in terms of probability profiles of genomic sequence using any type of relevant experimental and theoretical information and subsequent cross-correlation analysis in hypothesis-driven model building and testing. Conclusion Probability landscapes, which include as reference set the probabilistic representation of the genomic sequence, can be used efficiently to discover and analyze correlations amongst initially heterogeneous and un-relatable descriptions and genome-wide measurements. Furthermore, this structure is usable as a support for automatically generating and testing hypotheses for alternative gene regulatory grammars and the evaluation of those through statistical analysis of the high-dimensional correlations between genomic sequence, sequence annotations, and experimental data. Finally, this structure provides a concrete and tangible basis for attempting to formulate a

  1. Quality, precision and accuracy of the maximum No. 40 anemometer

    Obermeir, J. [Otech Engineering, Davis, CA (United States); Blittersdorf, D. [NRG Systems Inc., Hinesburg, VT (United States)


    This paper synthesizes available calibration data for the Maximum No. 40 anemometer. Despite its long history in the wind industry, controversy surrounds the choice of transfer function for this anemometer. Many users are unaware that recent changes in default transfer functions in data loggers are producing output wind speed differences as large as 7.6%. Comparison of two calibration methods used for large samples of Maximum No. 40 anemometers shows a consistent difference of 4.6% in output speeds. This difference is significantly larger than estimated uncertainty levels. Testing, initially performed to investigate related issues, reveals that Gill and Maximum cup anemometers change their calibration transfer functions significantly when calibrated in the open atmosphere compared with calibration in a laminar wind tunnel. This indicates that atmospheric turbulence changes the calibration transfer function of cup anemometers. These results call into question the suitability of standard wind tunnel calibration testing for cup anemometers. 6 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.

  2. The evolution of maximum body size of terrestrial mammals.

    Smith, Felisa A; Boyer, Alison G; Brown, James H; Costa, Daniel P; Dayan, Tamar; Ernest, S K Morgan; Evans, Alistair R; Fortelius, Mikael; Gittleman, John L; Hamilton, Marcus J; Harding, Larisa E; Lintulaakso, Kari; Lyons, S Kathleen; McCain, Christy; Okie, Jordan G; Saarinen, Juha J; Sibly, Richard M; Stephens, Patrick R; Theodor, Jessica; Uhen, Mark D


    The extinction of dinosaurs at the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary was the seminal event that opened the door for the subsequent diversification of terrestrial mammals. Our compilation of maximum body size at the ordinal level by sub-epoch shows a near-exponential increase after the K/Pg. On each continent, the maximum size of mammals leveled off after 40 million years ago and thereafter remained approximately constant. There was remarkable congruence in the rate, trajectory, and upper limit across continents, orders, and trophic guilds, despite differences in geological and climatic history, turnover of lineages, and ecological variation. Our analysis suggests that although the primary driver for the evolution of giant mammals was diversification to fill ecological niches, environmental temperature and land area may have ultimately constrained the maximum size achieved.

  3. How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants.

    Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne


    In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected.

  4. Probability of an Error in Estimation of States of a Modulated Synchronous Flow of Physical Events

    Gortsev, A. M.; Sirotina, M. N.


    A flow of physical events (photons, electrons, etc.) is considered. One of the mathematical models of such flows is a modulated synchronous doubly stochastic flow of events. Analytical results for conditional and unconditional probabilities of erroneous decision in optimal estimation of flow states upon the criterion of the a posteriori probability maximum are presented.

  5. Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

    Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.


    Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

  6. Fluctuating States: What is the Probability of a Thermodynamical Transition?

    Alhambra, Álvaro M.; Oppenheim, Jonathan; Perry, Christopher


    If the second law of thermodynamics forbids a transition from one state to another, then it is still possible to make the transition happen by using a sufficient amount of work. But if we do not have access to this amount of work, can the transition happen probabilistically? In the thermodynamic limit, this probability tends to zero, but here we find that for finite-sized and quantum systems it can be finite. We compute the maximum probability of a transition or a thermodynamical fluctuation from any initial state to any final state and show that this maximum can be achieved for any final state that is block diagonal in the energy eigenbasis. We also find upper and lower bounds on this transition probability, in terms of the work of transition. As a by-product, we introduce a finite set of thermodynamical monotones related to the thermomajorization criteria which governs state transitions and compute the work of transition in terms of them. The trade-off between the probability of a transition and any partial work added to aid in that transition is also considered. Our results have applications in entanglement theory, and we find the amount of entanglement required (or gained) when transforming one pure entangled state into any other.

  7. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    Pugachev, V S


    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  8. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    Helms, Lester L


    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  9. Statistical convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability

    Pratulananda Das; Sanjoy Ghosal; Sumit Som


    In this paper ideas of different types of convergence of a sequence of random variables in probability, namely, statistical convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability, strong $p$-Ces$\\grave{\\mbox{a}}$ro summability of order $\\alpha$ in probability, lacunary statistical convergence or $S_{\\theta}$-convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability, ${N_{\\theta}}$-convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability have been introduced and their certain basic properties have been studied.

  10. Estimation of probability densities using scale-free field theories.

    Kinney, Justin B


    The question of how best to estimate a continuous probability density from finite data is an intriguing open problem at the interface of statistics and physics. Previous work has argued that this problem can be addressed in a natural way using methods from statistical field theory. Here I describe results that allow this field-theoretic approach to be rapidly and deterministically computed in low dimensions, making it practical for use in day-to-day data analysis. Importantly, this approach does not impose a privileged length scale for smoothness of the inferred probability density, but rather learns a natural length scale from the data due to the tradeoff between goodness of fit and an Occam factor. Open source software implementing this method in one and two dimensions is provided.

  11. Probability of rupture of multiple fault segments

    Andrews, D.J.; Schwerer, E.


    Fault segments identified from geologic and historic evidence have sometimes been adopted as features limiting the likely extends of earthquake ruptures. There is no doubt that individual segments can sometimes join together to produce larger earthquakes. This work is a trial of an objective method to determine the probability of multisegment ruptures. The frequency of occurrence of events on all conjectured combinations of adjacent segments in northern California is found by fitting to both geologic slip rates and to an assumed distribution of event sizes for the region as a whole. Uncertainty in the shape of the distribution near the maximum magnitude has a large effect on the solution. Frequencies of individual events cannot be determined, but it is possible to find a set of frequencies to fit a model closely. A robust conclusion for the San Francisco Bay region is that large multisegment events occur on the San Andreas and San Gregorio faults, but single-segment events predominate on the extended Hayward and Calaveras strands of segments.

  12. Probability seismic hazard maps of Southern Thailand

    Chinda Sutiwanich


    Full Text Available Seismic hazard maps of southern Thailand were obtained from the integration of crustal fault, areal and subductionsource models using probability seismic hazard analysis and the application of a logic tree approach. The hazard maps showthe mean peak ground and spectral accelerations at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 second periods with a 10%, 5%, 2% and 0.5% probabilityof exceedance in 50-year hazard levels. The highest hazard areas were revealed to be in the Muang, Phanom, and Viphavadidistricts of Surat Thani province, the Thap Put district of Phang Nga province, and the Plai Phraya district of Krabi province.The lowest hazard areas are in the southernmost part of Thailand e.g. Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces. The maximumvalues of the mean peak ground acceleration for the 475–9,975 yr return period are 0.28-0.52 g and the maximum spectralaccelerations at 0.2 seconds for the same return period are 0.52-0.80 g. Similar hazard is also obtained for different returnperiods. Presented seismic hazard maps are useful as a guideline for the future design of buildings, bridges or dams, for rocksites to resist earthquake forces.

  13. How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan.

    Modig, K; Andersson, T; Vaupel, J; Rau, R; Ahlbom, A


    The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality above the age of 100 years. In particular, we aimed to examine whether Scandinavian data support the theory that mortality reaches a plateau at particularly old ages. Whether the maximum length of life increases with time was also investigated. The analyses were based on individual level data on all Swedish and Danish centenarians born from 1870 to 1901; in total 3006 men and 10 963 women were included. Birth cohort-specific probabilities of dying were calculated. Exact ages were used for calculations of maximum length of life. Whether maximum age changed over time was analysed taking into account increases in cohort size. The results confirm that there has not been any improvement in mortality amongst centenarians in the past 30 years and that the current rise in life expectancy is driven by reductions in mortality below the age of 100 years. The death risks seem to reach a plateau of around 50% at the age 103 years for men and 107 years for women. Despite the rising life expectancy, the maximum age does not appear to increase, in particular after accounting for the increasing number of individuals of advanced age. Mortality amongst centenarians is not changing despite improvements at younger ages. An extension of the maximum lifespan and a sizeable extension of life expectancy both require reductions in mortality above the age of 100 years. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  14. Open Source, Open Access, Open Review, Open Data. Initiativen zu mehr Offenheit in der digitalen Welt

    Herb, Ulrich


    The article discusses the principles of openess, open access and open availability of information based on the examples of open access to scientific information, open government data, open geographical data and open source software.

  15. Open Source, Open Access, Open Review, Open Data. Initiativen zu mehr Offenheit in der digitalen Welt

    Herb, Ulrich


    The article discusses the principles of openess, open access and open availability of information based on the examples of open access to scientific information, open government data, open geographical data and open source software.

  16. An improved probability mapping approach to assess genome mosaicism

    Gogarten J Peter


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maximum likelihood and posterior probability mapping are useful visualization techniques that are used to ascertain the mosaic nature of prokaryotic genomes. However, posterior probabilities, especially when calculated for four-taxon cases, tend to overestimate the support for tree topologies. Furthermore, because of poor taxon sampling four-taxon analyses suffer from sensitivity to the long branch attraction artifact. Here we extend the probability mapping approach by improving taxon sampling of the analyzed datasets, and by using bootstrap support values, a more conservative tool to assess reliability. Results Quartets of orthologous proteins were complemented with homologs from selected reference genomes. The mapping of bootstrap support values from these extended datasets gives results similar to the original maximum likelihood and posterior probability mapping. The more conservative nature of the plotted support values allows to focus further analyses on those protein families that strongly disagree with the majority or plurality of genes present in the analyzed genomes. Conclusion Posterior probability is a non-conservative measure for support, and posterior probability mapping only provides a quick estimation of phylogenetic information content of four genomes. This approach can be utilized as a pre-screen to select genes that might have been horizontally transferred. Better taxon sampling combined with subtree analyses prevents the inconsistencies associated with four-taxon analyses, but retains the power of visual representation. Nevertheless, a case-by-case inspection of individual multi-taxon phylogenies remains necessary to differentiate unrecognized paralogy and shared phylogenetic reconstruction artifacts from horizontal gene transfer events.

  17. Fusion probability in heavy nuclei

    Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu


    Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, PCN> , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. PCN> for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: PCN> has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine PCN> . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where PCN> starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of PCN> from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross sections

  18. OpenAPC. Open-Access-Publikationskosten als Open Data

    Tullney, Marco


    Präsentationsfolien zum Vortrag „OpenAPC. Open-Access-Publikationskosten als Open Data“ in der Session „Ausgestaltung eines wissenschaftsadäquaten APC-Marktes: Grundsätze, Finanzierungsansätze und Management“ der Open-Access-Tage 2015 in Zürich (

  19. Probable Linezolid-Induced Pancytopenia

    Nita Lakhani


    Full Text Available A 75-year-old male outpatient with cardiac disease, diabetes, chronic renal insufficiency and iron deficiency anemia was prescribed linezolid 600 mg twice daily for a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus diabetic foot osteomyelitis. After one week, his blood counts were consistent with baseline values. The patient failed to return for subsequent blood work. On day 26, he was admitted to hospital with acute renal failure secondary to dehydration, and was found to be pancytopenic (erythrocytes 2.5x1012/L, leukocytes 2.9x109/L, platelets 59x109/L, hemoglobin 71 g/L. The patient was transfused, and linezolid was discontinued. His blood counts improved over the week and remained at baseline two months later. The patient's decline in blood counts from baseline levels met previously established criteria for clinical significance. Application of the Naranjo scale indicated a probable relationship between pancytopenia and linezolid. Clinicians should be aware of this rare effect with linezolid, and prospectively identify patients at risk and emphasize weekly hematological monitoring.

  20. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    Clausen, Drew; Ott, Christian D


    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we derive the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, $P_{\\rm BH}(M_{\\rm ZAMS})$. We explore possible biases in the observed BH mass distribution and find that this sample is best suited for studying BH formation in stars with ZAMS masses in the range $12-...

  1. Avoiding Negative Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics

    Nyambuya, Golden Gadzirayi


    As currently understood since its discovery, the bare Klein-Gordon theory consists of negative quantum probabilities which are considered to be physically meaningless if not outright obsolete. Despite this annoying setback, these negative probabilities are what led the great Paul Dirac in 1928 to the esoteric discovery of the Dirac Equation. The Dirac Equation led to one of the greatest advances in our understanding of the physical world. In this reading, we ask the seemingly senseless question, "Do negative probabilities exist in quantum mechanics?" In an effort to answer this question, we arrive at the conclusion that depending on the choice one makes of the quantum probability current, one will obtain negative probabilities. We thus propose a new quantum probability current of the Klein-Gordon theory. This quantum probability current leads directly to positive definite quantum probabilities. Because these negative probabilities are in the bare Klein-Gordon theory, intrinsically a result of negative energie...

  2. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    Takahashi, Taiki


    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  3. Receiver function estimated by maximum entropy deconvolution

    吴庆举; 田小波; 张乃铃; 李卫平; 曾融生


    Maximum entropy deconvolution is presented to estimate receiver function, with the maximum entropy as the rule to determine auto-correlation and cross-correlation functions. The Toeplitz equation and Levinson algorithm are used to calculate the iterative formula of error-predicting filter, and receiver function is then estimated. During extrapolation, reflective coefficient is always less than 1, which keeps maximum entropy deconvolution stable. The maximum entropy of the data outside window increases the resolution of receiver function. Both synthetic and real seismograms show that maximum entropy deconvolution is an effective method to measure receiver function in time-domain.

  4. Methods for fitting a parametric probability distribution to most probable number data.

    Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D


    Every year hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of samples are collected and analyzed to assess microbial contamination in food and water. The concentration of pathogenic organisms at the end of the production process is low for most commodities, so a highly sensitive screening test is used to determine whether the organism of interest is present in a sample. In some applications, samples that test positive are subjected to quantitation. The most probable number (MPN) technique is a common method to quantify the level of contamination in a sample because it is able to provide estimates at low concentrations. This technique uses a series of dilution count experiments to derive estimates of the concentration of the microorganism of interest. An application for these data is food-safety risk assessment, where the MPN concentration estimates can be fitted to a parametric distribution to summarize the range of potential exposures to the contaminant. Many different methods (e.g., substitution methods, maximum likelihood and regression on order statistics) have been proposed to fit microbial contamination data to a distribution, but the development of these methods rarely considers how the MPN technique influences the choice of distribution function and fitting method. An often overlooked aspect when applying these methods is whether the data represent actual measurements of the average concentration of microorganism per milliliter or the data are real-valued estimates of the average concentration, as is the case with MPN data. In this study, we propose two methods for fitting MPN data to a probability distribution. The first method uses a maximum likelihood estimator that takes average concentration values as the data inputs. The second is a Bayesian latent variable method that uses the counts of the number of positive tubes at each dilution to estimate the parameters of the contamination distribution. The performance of the two fitting methods is compared for two

  5. Maximum Power from a Solar Panel

    Michael Miller


    Full Text Available Solar energy has become a promising alternative to conventional fossil fuel sources. Solar panels are used to collect solar radiation and convert it into electricity. One of the techniques used to maximize the effectiveness of this energy alternative is to maximize the power output of the solar collector. In this project the maximum power is calculated by determining the voltage and the current of maximum power. These quantities are determined by finding the maximum value for the equation for power using differentiation. After the maximum values are found for each time of day, each individual quantity, voltage of maximum power, current of maximum power, and maximum power is plotted as a function of the time of day.

  6. Brain MR image segmentation improved algorithm based on probability

    Liao, Hengxu; Liu, Gang; Guo, Xiantang


    Local weight voting algorithm is a kind of current mainstream segmentation algorithm. It takes full account of the influences of the likelihood of image likelihood and the prior probabilities of labels on the segmentation results. But this method still can be improved since the essence of this method is to get the label with the maximum probability. If the probability of a label is 70%, it may be acceptable in mathematics. But in the actual segmentation, it may be wrong. So we use the matrix completion algorithm as a supplement. When the probability of the former is larger, the result of the former algorithm is adopted. When the probability of the later is larger, the result of the later algorithm is adopted. This is equivalent to adding an automatic algorithm selection switch that can theoretically ensure that the accuracy of the algorithm we propose is superior to the local weight voting algorithm. At the same time, we propose an improved matrix completion algorithm based on enumeration method. In addition, this paper also uses a multi-parameter registration model to reduce the influence that the registration made on the segmentation. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the algorithm is better than the common segmentation algorithm.

  7. Open Images

    Sanderhoff, Merete


    Museums around the world hold enormous troves of public domain artworks. In digitized form, they can be powerful tools for research and learning, as well as building blocks, in the hands of students, teachers, scholars, developers, and creative people. By opening up their digitized assets for reuse......, museums have a unique opportunity to broaden the scope of their public mission to serve and educate the public on 21st century media terms. What could be controversial about that? Art museums have a long legacy of restricting access to high quality images of artworks in order to protect them from improper...

  8. Open University



    Michel Pentz est née en Afrique du Sud et venu au Cern en 1957 comme physicien et président de l'associaion du personnel. Il est également fondateur du mouvement Antiapartheid de Genève et a participé à la fondation de l'Open University en Grande-Bretagne. Il nous parle des contextes pédagogiques, culturels et nationaux dans lesquels la méthode peut s'appliquer.

  9. Gaussian maximum likelihood and contextual classification algorithms for multicrop classification

    Di Zenzo, Silvano; Bernstein, Ralph; Kolsky, Harwood G.; Degloria, Stephen D.


    The paper reviews some of the ways in which context has been handled in the remote-sensing literature, and additional possibilities are introduced. The problem of computing exhaustive and normalized class-membership probabilities from the likelihoods provided by the Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier (to be used as initial probability estimates to start relaxation) is discussed. An efficient implementation of probabilistic relaxation is proposed, suiting the needs of actual remote-sensing applications. A modified fuzzy-relaxation algorithm using generalized operations between fuzzy sets is presented. Combined use of the two relaxation algorithms is proposed to exploit context in multispectral classification of remotely sensed data. Results on both one artificially created image and one MSS data set are reported.

  10. Maximum entropy reconstruction of spin densities involving non uniform prior

    Schweizer, J.; Ressouche, E. [DRFMC/SPSMS/MDN CEA-Grenoble (France); Papoular, R.J. [CEA-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette (France). Lab. Leon Brillouin; Tasset, F. [Inst. Laue Langevin, Grenoble (France); Zheludev, A.I. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States). Physics Dept.


    Diffraction experiments give microscopic information on structures in crystals. A method which uses the concept of maximum of entropy (MaxEnt), appears to be a formidable improvement in the treatment of diffraction data. This method is based on a bayesian approach: among all the maps compatible with the experimental data, it selects that one which has the highest prior (intrinsic) probability. Considering that all the points of the map are equally probable, this probability (flat prior) is expressed via the Boltzman entropy of the distribution. This method has been used for the reconstruction of charge densities from X-ray data, for maps of nuclear densities from unpolarized neutron data as well as for distributions of spin density. The density maps obtained by this method, as compared to those resulting from the usual inverse Fourier transformation, are tremendously improved. In particular, any substantial deviation from the background is really contained in the data, as it costs entropy compared to a map that would ignore such features. However, in most of the cases, before the measurements are performed, some knowledge exists about the distribution which is investigated. It can range from the simple information of the type of scattering electrons to an elaborate theoretical model. In these cases, the uniform prior which considers all the different pixels as equally likely, is too weak a requirement and has to be replaced. In a rigorous bayesian analysis, Skilling has shown that prior knowledge can be encoded into the Maximum Entropy formalism through a model m({rvec r}), via a new definition for the entropy given in this paper. In the absence of any data, the maximum of the entropy functional is reached for {rho}({rvec r}) = m({rvec r}). Any substantial departure from the model, observed in the final map, is really contained in the data as, with the new definition, it costs entropy. This paper presents illustrations of model testing.

  11. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Foster, Colin


    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  12. Conditional probability modulates visual search efficiency.

    Cort, Bryan; Anderson, Britt


    We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability-the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues-varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  13. Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

    Bryan eCort


    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  14. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Foster, Colin


    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  15. Maximum likelihood for genome phylogeny on gene content.

    Zhang, Hongmei; Gu, Xun


    With the rapid growth of entire genome data, reconstructing the phylogenetic relationship among different genomes has become a hot topic in comparative genomics. Maximum likelihood approach is one of the various approaches, and has been very successful. However, there is no reported study for any applications in the genome tree-making mainly due to the lack of an analytical form of a probability model and/or the complicated calculation burden. In this paper we studied the mathematical structure of the stochastic model of genome evolution, and then developed a simplified likelihood function for observing a specific phylogenetic pattern under four genome situation using gene content information. We use the maximum likelihood approach to identify phylogenetic trees. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method works well and can identify trees with a high correction rate. Real data application provides satisfied results. The approach developed in this paper can serve as the basis for reconstructing phylogenies of more than four genomes.

  16. Maximum information entropy: a foundation for ecological theory.

    Harte, John; Newman, Erica A


    The maximum information entropy (MaxEnt) principle is a successful method of statistical inference that has recently been applied to ecology. Here, we show how MaxEnt can accurately predict patterns such as species-area relationships (SARs) and abundance distributions in macroecology and be a foundation for ecological theory. We discuss the conceptual foundation of the principle, why it often produces accurate predictions of probability distributions in science despite not incorporating explicit mechanisms, and how mismatches between predictions and data can shed light on driving mechanisms in ecology. We also review possible future extensions of the maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE), a potentially important foundation for future developments in ecological theory.

  17. Smoothed log-concave maximum likelihood estimation with applications

    Chen, Yining


    We study the smoothed log-concave maximum likelihood estimator of a probability distribution on $\\mathbb{R}^d$. This is a fully automatic nonparametric density estimator, obtained as a canonical smoothing of the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator. We demonstrate its attractive features both through an analysis of its theoretical properties and a simulation study. Moreover, we show how the estimator can be used as an intermediate stage of more involved procedures, such as constructing a classifier or estimating a functional of the density. Here again, the use of the estimator can be justified both on theoretical grounds and through its finite sample performance, and we illustrate its use in a breast cancer diagnosis (classification) problem.

  18. A Maximum Entropy Modelling of the Rain Drop Size Distribution

    Francisco J. Tapiador


    Full Text Available This paper presents a maximum entropy approach to Rain Drop Size Distribution (RDSD modelling. It is shown that this approach allows (1 to use a physically consistent rationale to select a particular probability density function (pdf (2 to provide an alternative method for parameter estimation based on expectations of the population instead of sample moments and (3 to develop a progressive method of modelling by updating the pdf as new empirical information becomes available. The method is illustrated with both synthetic and real RDSD data, the latest coming from a laser disdrometer network specifically designed to measure the spatial variability of the RDSD.

  19. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    Odafe, Victor U.


    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  20. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    López Puga, Jorge


    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  1. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.


    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623... Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be computed to no less than three significant digits. Probabilities will be truncated to the number of...

  2. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...... of subjective probabilities in subjects with certain Non-Expected Utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions that we identify....

  3. Inferring Beliefs as Subjectively Imprecise Probabilities

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;


    We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The e...... probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance....

  4. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd;

    report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...

  5. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    López Puga, Jorge


    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  6. The trajectory of the target probability effect.

    Hon, Nicholas; Yap, Melvin J; Jabar, Syaheed B


    The effect of target probability on detection times is well-established: Even when detection accuracy is high, lower probability targets are detected more slowly than higher probability ones. Although this target probability effect on detection times has been well-studied, one aspect of it has remained largely unexamined: How the effect develops over the span of an experiment. Here, we investigated this issue with two detection experiments that assessed different target probability ratios. Conventional block segment analysis and linear mixed-effects modeling converged on two key findings. First, we found that the magnitude of the target probability effect increases as one progresses through a block of trials. Second, we found, by examining the trajectories of the low- and high-probability targets, that this increase in effect magnitude was driven by the low-probability targets. Specifically, we found that low-probability targets were detected more slowly as a block of trials progressed. Performance to high-probability targets, on the other hand, was largely invariant across the block. The latter finding is of particular interest because it cannot be reconciled with accounts that propose that the target probability effect is driven by the high-probability targets.

  7. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    Odafe, Victor U.


    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  8. Cluster formation probability in the trans-tin and trans-lead nuclei

    Santhosh, K.P. [School of Pure and Applied Physics, Kannur University, Payyanur Campus, Payyanur 670 327 (India)], E-mail:; Biju, R.K.; Sahadevan, Sabina [P.G. Department of Physics and Research Centre, Payyanur College, Payyanur 670 327 (India)


    Within our fission model, the Coulomb and proximity potential model (CPPM) cluster formation probabilities are calculated for different clusters ranging from carbon to silicon for the parents in the trans-tin and trans-lead regions. It is found that in trans-tin region the {sup 12}C, {sup 16}O, {sup 20}Ne and {sup 24}Mg clusters have maximum cluster formation probability and lowest half lives as compared to other clusters. In trans-lead region the {sup 14}C, {sup 18,20}O, {sup 23}F, {sup 24,26}Ne, {sup 28,30}Mg and {sup 34}Si clusters have the maximum cluster formation probability and minimum half life, which show that alpha like clusters are most probable for emission from trans-tin region while non-alpha clusters are probable from trans-lead region. These results stress the role of neutron proton symmetry and asymmetry of daughter nuclei in these two cases.

  9. Cluster formation probability in the trans-tin and trans-lead nuclei

    Santhosh, K P; Sahadevan, Sabina; 10.1016/j.nuclphysa.2010.03.004


    Within our fission model, the Coulomb and proximity potential model (CPPM) cluster formation probabilities are calculated for different clusters ranging from carbon to silicon for the parents in the trans-tin and trans- lead regions. It is found that in trans-tin region the 12^C, 16^O, 20^Ne and 24^Mg clusters have maximum cluster formation probability and lowest half lives as compared to other clusters. In trans-lead region the 14^C, 18, 20^O, 23^F, 24,26^Ne, 28,30^Mg and 34^Si clusters have the maximum cluster formation probability and minimum half life, which show that alpha like clusters are most probable for emission from trans-tin region while non-alpha clusters are probable from trans-lead region. These results stress the role of neutron proton symmetry and asymmetry of daughter nuclei in these two cases.

  10. An improved maximum power point tracking method for photovoltaic systems

    Tafticht, T.; Agbossou, K.; Doumbia, M.L.; Cheriti, A. [Institut de recherche sur l' hydrogene, Departement de genie electrique et genie informatique, Universite du Quebec a Trois-Rivieres, C.P. 500, Trois-Rivieres (QC) (Canada)


    In most of the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) methods described currently in the literature, the optimal operation point of the photovoltaic (PV) systems is estimated by linear approximations. However these approximations can lead to less than optimal operating conditions and hence reduce considerably the performances of the PV system. This paper proposes a new approach to determine the maximum power point (MPP) based on measurements of the open-circuit voltage of the PV modules, and a nonlinear expression for the optimal operating voltage is developed based on this open-circuit voltage. The approach is thus a combination of the nonlinear and perturbation and observation (P and O) methods. The experimental results show that the approach improves clearly the tracking efficiency of the maximum power available at the output of the PV modules. The new method reduces the oscillations around the MPP, and increases the average efficiency of the MPPT obtained. The new MPPT method will deliver more power to any generic load or energy storage media. (author)

  11. Failure-probability driven dose painting

    Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Kristensen, Claus A.; Rasmussen, Jacob; Specht, Lena [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100 (Denmark); Berthelsen, Anne K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark and Department of Clinical Physiology, Nuclear Medicine and PET, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100 (Denmark); Bentzen, Søren M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark and Departments of Human Oncology and Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53792 (United States)


    Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). The total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of toxicity.

  12. Probable flood predictions in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

    Friedel, M.J.; Smith, M.E.; Chica, A.M.E.; Litke, D.


    A regionalization procedure is presented and used to predict probable flooding in four ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. The flood-prediction problem is sequentially solved for two regions: upstream mountains and downstream alluvial plains. In the upstream mountains, a set of rainfall-runoff parameter values and recurrent peak-flow discharge hydrographs are simultaneously estimated for 20 tributary-basin models. Application of dissimilarity equations among tributary basins (soft prior information) permitted development of a parsimonious parameter structure subject to information content in the recurrent peak-flow discharge values derived using regression equations based on measurements recorded outside the ungauged study basins. The estimated joint set of parameter values formed the basis from which probable minimum and maximum peak-flow discharge limits were then estimated revealing that prediction uncertainty increases with basin size. In the downstream alluvial plain, model application of the estimated minimum and maximum peak-flow hydrographs facilitated simulation of probable 100-year flood-flow depths in confined canyons and across unconfined coastal alluvial plains. The regionalization procedure provides a tool for hydrologic risk assessment and flood protection planning that is not restricted to the case presented herein. ?? 2008 ASCE.

  13. The inverse maximum dynamic flow problem

    BAGHERIAN; Mehri


    We consider the inverse maximum dynamic flow (IMDF) problem.IMDF problem can be described as: how to change the capacity vector of a dynamic network as little as possible so that a given feasible dynamic flow becomes a maximum dynamic flow.After discussing some characteristics of this problem,it is converted to a constrained minimum dynamic cut problem.Then an efficient algorithm which uses two maximum dynamic flow algorithms is proposed to solve the problem.

  14. Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

    Juliana Bueno-Soler


    Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

  15. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    Gillies, Donald


    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  16. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    Ibe, Oliver


    The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

  17. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard


    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

  18. Maximum Entropy Methods as the Bridge Between Microscopic and Macroscopic Theory

    Taylor, Jamie M.


    This paper is concerned with an investigation into a function of macroscopic variables known as the singular potential, building on previous work by Ball and Majumdar. The singular potential is a function of the admissible statistical averages of probability distributions on a state space, defined so that it corresponds to the maximum possible entropy given known observed statistical averages, although non-classical entropy-like objective functions will also be considered. First the set of admissible moments must be established, and under the conditions presented in this work the set is open, bounded and convex allowing a description in terms of supporting hyperplanes, which provides estimates on the development of singularities for related probability distributions. Under appropriate conditions it is shown that the singular potential is strictly convex, as differentiable as the microscopic entropy, and blows up uniformly as the macroscopic variable tends to the boundary of the set of admissible moments. Applications of the singular potential are then discussed, and particular consideration will be given to certain free-energy functionals typical in mean-field theory, demonstrating an equivalence between certain microscopic and macroscopic free-energy functionals. This allows statements about L^1-local minimisers of Onsager's free energy to be obtained which cannot be given by two-sided variations, and overcomes the need to ensure local minimisers are bounded away from zero and +∞ before taking L^∞ variations. The analysis also permits the definition of a dual order parameter for which Onsager's free energy allows an explicit representation. Also, the difficulties in approximating the singular potential by everywhere defined functions, in particular by polynomial functions, are addressed, with examples demonstrating the failure of the Taylor approximation to preserve relevant shape properties of the singular potential.

  19. Maximum permissible voltage of YBCO coated conductors

    Wen, J.; Lin, B.; Sheng, J.; Xu, J.; Jin, Z. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai (China); Hong, Z., E-mail: [Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai (China); Wang, D.; Zhou, H.; Shen, X.; Shen, C. [Qingpu Power Supply Company, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai (China)


    Highlights: • We examine three kinds of tapes’ maximum permissible voltage. • We examine the relationship between quenching duration and maximum permissible voltage. • Continuous I{sub c} degradations under repetitive quenching where tapes reaching maximum permissible voltage. • The relationship between maximum permissible voltage and resistance, temperature. - Abstract: Superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) could reduce short circuit currents in electrical power system. One of the most important thing in developing SFCL is to find out the maximum permissible voltage of each limiting element. The maximum permissible voltage is defined as the maximum voltage per unit length at which the YBCO coated conductors (CC) do not suffer from critical current (I{sub c}) degradation or burnout. In this research, the time of quenching process is changed and voltage is raised until the I{sub c} degradation or burnout happens. YBCO coated conductors test in the experiment are from American superconductor (AMSC) and Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU). Along with the quenching duration increasing, the maximum permissible voltage of CC decreases. When quenching duration is 100 ms, the maximum permissible of SJTU CC, 12 mm AMSC CC and 4 mm AMSC CC are 0.72 V/cm, 0.52 V/cm and 1.2 V/cm respectively. Based on the results of samples, the whole length of CCs used in the design of a SFCL can be determined.

  20. On the computability of conditional probability

    Ackerman, Nathanael L; Roy, Daniel M


    We study the problem of computing conditional probabilities, a fundamental operation in statistics and machine learning. In the elementary discrete setting, a ratio of probabilities defines conditional probability. In the abstract setting, conditional probability is defined axiomatically and the search for more constructive definitions is the subject of a rich literature in probability theory and statistics. In the discrete or dominated setting, under suitable computability hypotheses, conditional probabilities are computable. However, we show that in general one cannot compute conditional probabilities. We do this by constructing a pair of computable random variables in the unit interval whose conditional distribution encodes the halting problem at almost every point. We show that this result is tight, in the sense that given an oracle for the halting problem, one can compute this conditional distribution. On the other hand, we show that conditioning in abstract settings is computable in the presence of cert...

  1. Results of Open Rhinoplasty in Patients with Nasal Deformities

    Bernardo Canto Vidal


    Full Text Available Foundation: Rhinoplasty is a surgical procedure to solve aesthetic and functional problems. Although it is refused by many surgeons due to the external incision of the columella, it is highly useful in difficult cases.Objective: To describe the results of open rhinoplasty in patients with nasal deformities.Methods: A descriptive study was realized, of patients operated through the technique of open rhinoplasty in the period 2005-2012 in the Hospital Gustavo Aldereguía Lima. Cienfuegos. The variables analyzed were: age, sex, race, and type of incision.Results: Most of the patients were under 30 years old; the lowest age was 14 and the maximum 50 years old. The type of incision mostly used was inverted V. In none of the operated patients a keloid appeared. The 100 % of patients manifested a high degree of satisfaction with respects to the results of the operation.Conclusion: Open rhinoplasty offers a series of advantages which guarantee the success of the surgical intervention to the surgeon. If the necessary measures are adopted the surgical risk is minimal, similarly the probabilities of appearance of a keloid scar which is more frequent in mestizo and black patients who are also those who demand this type of surgery in the studied series.

  2. Stability analysis of underground openings for extraction of natural stone

    Karmen Fifer Bizjak


    Full Text Available Extraction of natural stone is usually carried out in surface quarries. Underground excavation is not a frequently used method. Due to the restrictive environmental legislature and limited stores of natural stone, underground extraction has become quite an interestingalternative. Dimensions of underground openings are determined with stability analyses.Prior to starting a numerical analysis of a large underground opening it is very important to determine the mechanism of failure and set up a proper numerical model. The continuum method is usually used in rock mechanics. A disadvantage of this calculation is that it cannotbe applied to a large number of joints. Other methods are preferred, such as the numerical discrete method, which allows joint systems to be involved into calculations. The most probable failure of rock with several joint systems is block sliding. In the example of themarble of Hotavlje both methods were used. It was established that the continuum method is convenient for the global stability prediction of the underground opening. Further discretemethod enable the block stability calculation. The analytical block analysis is still accurate for the a stability calculation of single block. The prerequisite for a good numerical analysis is sufficient quality data on geomechanical properties of rock. In-situ tests, laboratory tests and geotechnical measurements on the site are therefore necessary. Optimum dimensions of underground chambers in the Quarry of Hotavlje were calculated by using several numericalmodels, and the maximum chamber width of 12 m was obtained.

  3. OpenER, a Dutch Initiative in Open Educational Resources

    Schuwer, Robert; Mulder, Fred


    Over the period 2006-2008, the Dutch Open Universiteit Nederland conducted an experiment in which Open Educational Resources (OER) were offered in an effort to bridge the gap between informal and formal learning and to establish a new style of entry portal to higher education with no barriers at all. OpenER received considerable attention both in…

  4. Maximum-Entropy Method for Evaluating the Slope Stability of Earth Dams

    Shuai Wang


    Full Text Available The slope stability is a very important problem in geotechnical engineering. This paper presents an approach for slope reliability analysis based on the maximum-entropy method. The key idea is to implement the maximum entropy principle in estimating the probability density function. The performance function is formulated by the Simplified Bishop’s method to estimate the slope failure probability. The maximum-entropy method is used to estimate the probability density function (PDF of the performance function subject to the moment constraints. A numerical example is calculated and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS and the Advanced First Order Second Moment Method (AFOSM. The results show the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. The proposed method should be valuable for performing probabilistic analyses.

  5. Generalised maximum entropy and heterogeneous technologies

    Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.


    Generalised maximum entropy methods are used to estimate a dual model of production on panel data of Dutch cash crop farms over the period 1970-1992. The generalised maximum entropy approach allows a coherent system of input demand and output supply equations to be estimated for each farm in the sam

  6. 20 CFR 229.48 - Family maximum.


    ... month on one person's earnings record is limited. This limited amount is called the family maximum. The family maximum used to adjust the social security overall minimum rate is based on the employee's Overall..., when any of the persons entitled to benefits on the insured individual's compensation would, except...

  7. The maximum rotation of a galactic disc

    Bottema, R


    The observed stellar velocity dispersions of galactic discs show that the maximum rotation of a disc is on average 63% of the observed maximum rotation. This criterion can, however, not be applied to small or low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies because such systems show, in general, a continuously

  8. Bell Could Become the Copernicus of Probability

    Khrennikov, Andrei


    Our aim is to emphasize the role of mathematical models in physics, especially models of geometry and probability. We briefly compare developments of geometry and probability by pointing to similarities and differences: from Euclid to Lobachevsky and from Kolmogorov to Bell. In probability, Bell could play the same role as Lobachevsky in geometry. In fact, violation of Bell’s inequality can be treated as implying the impossibility to apply the classical probability model of Kolmogorov (1933) to quantum phenomena. Thus the quantum probabilistic model (based on Born’s rule) can be considered as the concrete example of the non-Kolmogorovian model of probability, similarly to the Lobachevskian model — the first example of the non-Euclidean model of geometry. This is the “probability model” interpretation of the violation of Bell’s inequality. We also criticize the standard interpretation—an attempt to add to rigorous mathematical probability models additional elements such as (non)locality and (un)realism. Finally, we compare embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into the Euclidean space with embeddings of the non-Kolmogorovian probabilities (in particular, quantum probability) into the Kolmogorov probability space. As an example, we consider the CHSH-test.

  9. Metabolic networks evolve towards states of maximum entropy production.

    Unrean, Pornkamol; Srienc, Friedrich


    A metabolic network can be described by a set of elementary modes or pathways representing discrete metabolic states that support cell function. We have recently shown that in the most likely metabolic state the usage probability of individual elementary modes is distributed according to the Boltzmann distribution law while complying with the principle of maximum entropy production. To demonstrate that a metabolic network evolves towards such state we have carried out adaptive evolution experiments with Thermoanaerobacterium saccharolyticum operating with a reduced metabolic functionality based on a reduced set of elementary modes. In such reduced metabolic network metabolic fluxes can be conveniently computed from the measured metabolite secretion pattern. Over a time span of 300 generations the specific growth rate of the strain continuously increased together with a continuous increase in the rate of entropy production. We show that the rate of entropy production asymptotically approaches the maximum entropy production rate predicted from the state when the usage probability of individual elementary modes is distributed according to the Boltzmann distribution. Therefore, the outcome of evolution of a complex biological system can be predicted in highly quantitative terms using basic statistical mechanical principles.

  10. Estimating the probability of rare events: addressing zero failure data.

    Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew


    Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data-dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with 1/2.5n, where n is the number of trials.

  11. Duality of Maximum Entropy and Minimum Divergence

    Shinto Eguchi


    Full Text Available We discuss a special class of generalized divergence measures by the use of generator functions. Any divergence measure in the class is separated into the difference between cross and diagonal entropy. The diagonal entropy measure in the class associates with a model of maximum entropy distributions; the divergence measure leads to statistical estimation via minimization, for arbitrarily giving a statistical model. The dualistic relationship between the maximum entropy model and the minimum divergence estimation is explored in the framework of information geometry. The model of maximum entropy distributions is characterized to be totally geodesic with respect to the linear connection associated with the divergence. A natural extension for the classical theory for the maximum likelihood method under the maximum entropy model in terms of the Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy is given. We discuss the duality in detail for Tsallis entropy as a typical example.

  12. Openness initiative

    Duncan, S.S. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)


    Although antinuclear campaigns seem to be effective, public communication and education efforts on low-level radioactive waste have mixed results. Attempts at public information programs on low-level radioactive waste still focus on influencing public opinion. A question then is: {open_quotes}Is it preferable to have a program focus on public education that will empower individuals to make informed decisions rather than trying to influence them in their decisions?{close_quotes} To address this question, a case study with both quantitative and qualitative data will be used. The Ohio Low-Level Radioactive Waste Education Program has a goal to provide people with information they want/need to make their own decisions. The program initiated its efforts by conducting a statewide survey to determine information needed by people and where they turned for that information. This presentation reports data from the survey and then explores the program development process in which programs were designed and presented using the information. Pre and post data from the programs reveal attitude and knowledge shifts.

  13. Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin


    The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

  14. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)


    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  15. Probability to retrieve testicular spermatozoa in azoospermic patients

    H.-J.Glander; L.-C.Horn; W.Dorschner; U.Paasch; J.Kratzsch


    Aim: The degree of probability to retrieve spermatozoa from testicular tissue for intracytoplasmic sperm injection into oocytes is of interest for counselling of infertility patients. We investigated the relation of sperm retrieval to clinical data and histological pattern in testicular biopsies from azoospermic patients. Methods: In 264 testicular biopsies from 142 azoospermic patients, the testicular tissue was shredded to separate the spermatozoa, histological semi - thin sections of which were then evaluated using Johnsen score. Results: The retrieval of spermatozoa correlated significantly ( P 18 U/L, testicular volume < 5 mL, mean Johnsen score<5, and maximum Johnsen score < 7.

  16. Gallbladder removal - open

    Cholecystectomy - open; Surgery - gallbladder - open ... a medical instrument called a laparoscope ( laparoscopic cholecystectomy ). Open gallbladder surgery is used when laparoscopic surgery cannot ...

  17. Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

    Robert Furber


    Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

  18. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL probability wheel

    Sheng-Cheng Huang


    Full Text Available A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an “investigator” and a “participant”, about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  19. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    Ibe, Oliver


    This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

  20. Total variation denoising of probability measures using iterated function systems with probabilities

    La Torre, Davide; Mendivil, Franklin; Vrscay, Edward R.


    In this paper we present a total variation denoising problem for probability measures using the set of fixed point probability measures of iterated function systems with probabilities IFSP. By means of the Collage Theorem for contraction mappings, we provide an upper bound for this problem that can be solved by determining a set of probabilities.

  1. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 440 - Information Requirements for Obtaining a Maximum Probable Loss Determination for Licensed or...


    ... any flight safety system on the vehicle, including a description of operations and component location... vehicle (on-range, off-range, and down-range) and specific, unique facilities exposed to risk. Scenarios... in the license application. C. On-orbit risk analysis assessing risks posed by a launch vehicle to...

  2. Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

    Marlow, Thomas


    We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes.

  3. Non-Boolean probabilities and quantum measurement

    Niestegge, Gerd


    A non-Boolean extension of the classical probability model is proposed. The non-Boolean probabilities reproduce typical quantum phenomena. The proposed model is more general and more abstract, but easier to interpret, than the quantum mechanical Hilbert space formalism and exhibits a particular phenomenon (state-independent conditional probabilities) which may provide new opportunities for an understanding of the quantum measurement process. Examples of the proposed model are provided, using Jordan operator algebras. (author)

  4. Data analysis recipes: Probability calculus for inference

    Hogg, David W


    In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the operations performed in probabilistic data analysis. Dimensional analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for helping to construct non-wrong probabilistic statements. The applications of probability calculus in constructing likelihoods, marginalized likelihoods, posterior probabilities, and posterior predictions are all discussed.

  5. Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

    Michael Druker


    Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.


    赵跃民; 陈清如


    The Probability Sizing Screen (PSS) developed by China University of Mining and Technology has been used since 1980 for the screening of moist fine raw coal. More than 600PSS's have been installed in Chinese coal mines, bringing about economic benefits to both coal producers and consumers in terms of reduced energy saving, transpertation cost reduction,and environmental protection. While the PSS treats some high-moisture fine raw coal, the mesh apertures may be blinded by the fine particles stuck on the mesh wire of the screen. Recently, the authors have developed the Piano-wire Probability Screen, a new screen which screens moist fine raw coal. This screen assimilates advantages of PSS, having large deck inclination, large aperture and multideck. In addition the new screen uses piano-wire decks which have a new structure, great open area, and no blinding. The results of sizing fine moist raw coal in Lugou Coal Mine, Henan Province,show that the Piano-wire Probability Screen has a large capacity and high efficiency and is an efficient screen for separating moist raw coal with diameter of 6mm. This paper describes the results of fundamental studies on the Piano-wire Probability Screen. and also includes data from pilot-plant studies.

  7. Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger


    The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

  8. Opening Address

    Crovini, L.


    Ladies and Gentlemen To quote Mr Jean Terrien: "Physics must be one step ahead of metrology". A long-serving Director of the BIPM, he said these words when visiting the IMGC in 1970 as a member of the scientific board of our Institute. At that time it was still an open question whether the IMGC should start research work on the absolute measurement of silicon lattice spacing. Mr Terrien underlined the revolutionary character of x-ray interferometry and, eventually, he caused the balance needle to lean towards the ... right direction. Mr Terrien correctly foresaw that, like Michelson's interferometer of 1880, x-ray interferometry could have a prominent place in today's science and technology. And while, in the first case, after more than a century we can see instruments based on electromagnetic wave interaction within every one's reach in laboratories and, sometimes, in workshops, in the second case, twenty-five years since the first development of an x-ray interferometer we can witness its role in nanometrology. Today and tomorrow we meet to discuss how to go beyond the sixth decimal place in the value of the Avogadro constant. We are aware that the quest for this achievement requires the cooperation of scientists with complementary capabilities. I am sure that the present workshop is a very good opportunity to present and discuss results and to improve and extend existing cooperation. The new adjustment of fundamental constants envisaged by the CODATA Task Group is redoubling scientists' efforts to produce competitive values of NA. The results of the measurements of the silicon lattice spacing in terms of an optical wavelength, which were available for the 1986 adjustment, combined with the determination of silicon molar volume, demonstrate how such an NA determination produces a consistent set of other constants and opens the way to a possible redefinition of the kilogram. We shall see in these two days how far we have progressed along this road. For us at the

  9. Probabilities are single-case, or nothing

    Appleby, D M


    Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which probabilities are conceived as logical constructs rather than physical realities, and in which probability statements do apply directly to individual events. The question is closely related to the disagreement between the orthodox school of statistical thought and the Bayesian school. It has important technical implications (it makes a difference, what statistical methodology one adopts). It may also have important implications for the interpretation of the quantum state.

  10. Real analysis and probability solutions to problems

    Ash, Robert P


    Real Analysis and Probability: Solutions to Problems presents solutions to problems in real analysis and probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability; the interplay between measure theory and topology; conditional probability and expectation; the central limit theorem; and strong laws of large numbers in terms of martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with problems and solutions for the theory of measure and integration, followed by various applications of the basic integration theory.

  11. Computable randomness and betting for computable probability spaces

    Rute, Jason


    Unlike Martin-L\\"of randomness and Schnorr randomness, computable randomness has not been defined, except for a few ad hoc cases, outside of Cantor space. This paper offers such a definition (actually, many equivalent definitions), and further, provides a general method for abstracting "bit-wise" definitions of randomness from Cantor space to arbitrary computable probability spaces. This same method is also applied to give machine characterizations of computable and Schnorr randomness for computable probability spaces, extending the previous known results. This paper also addresses "Schnorr's Critique" that gambling characterizations of Martin-L\\"of randomness are not computable enough. The paper contains a new type of randomness---endomorphism randomness---which the author hopes will shed light on the open question of whether Kolmogorov-Loveland randomness is equivalent to Martin-L\\"of randomness. It ends with other possible applications of the methods presented, including a possible definition of computable...

  12. When Index Term Probability Violates the Classical Probability Axioms Quantum Probability can be a Necessary Theory for Information Retrieval

    Melucci, Massimo


    Probabilistic models require the notion of event space for defining a probability measure. An event space has a probability measure which ensues the Kolmogorov axioms. However, the probabilities observed from distinct sources, such as that of relevance of documents, may not admit a single event space thus causing some issues. In this article, some results are introduced for ensuring whether the observed prob- abilities of relevance of documents admit a single event space. More- over, an alternative framework of probability is introduced, thus chal- lenging the use of classical probability for ranking documents. Some reflections on the convenience of extending the classical probabilis- tic retrieval toward a more general framework which encompasses the issues are made.

  13. Open life science research, open software and the open century

    Youhua Chen


    At the age of knowledge explosion and mass scientific information, I highlighted the importance of conducting open science in life and medical researches through the extensive usage of open software and documents. The proposal of conducting open science is to reduce the limited repeatability of researches in life science. I outlined the essential steps for conducting open life science and the necessary standards for creating, reusing and reproducing open materials. Different Creative Commons licenses were presented and compared of their usage scope and restriction. As a conclusion, I argued that open materials should be widely adopted in doing life and medical researches.

  14. PTree: pattern-based, stochastic search for maximum parsimony phylogenies

    Ivan Gregor


    Full Text Available Phylogenetic reconstruction is vital to analyzing the evolutionary relationship of genes within and across populations of different species. Nowadays, with next generation sequencing technologies producing sets comprising thousands of sequences, robust identification of the tree topology, which is optimal according to standard criteria such as maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood or posterior probability, with phylogenetic inference methods is a computationally very demanding task. Here, we describe a stochastic search method for a maximum parsimony tree, implemented in a software package we named PTree. Our method is based on a new pattern-based technique that enables us to infer intermediate sequences efficiently where the incorporation of these sequences in the current tree topology yields a phylogenetic tree with a lower cost. Evaluation across multiple datasets showed that our method is comparable to the algorithms implemented in PAUP* or TNT, which are widely used by the bioinformatics community, in terms of topological accuracy and runtime. We show that our method can process large-scale datasets of 1,000–8,000 sequences. We believe that our novel pattern-based method enriches the current set of tools and methods for phylogenetic tree inference. The software is available under:

  15. Maximum detection range limitation of pulse laser radar with Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode array

    Luo, Hanjun; Xu, Benlian; Xu, Huigang; Chen, Jingbo; Fu, Yadan


    When designing and evaluating the performance of laser radar system, maximum detection range achievable is an essential parameter. The purpose of this paper is to propose a theoretical model of maximum detection range for simulating the Geiger-mode laser radar's ranging performance. Based on the laser radar equation and the requirement of the minimum acceptable detection probability, and assuming the primary electrons triggered by the echo photons obey Poisson statistics, the maximum range theoretical model is established. By using the system design parameters, the influence of five main factors, namely emitted pulse energy, noise, echo position, atmospheric attenuation coefficient, and target reflectivity on the maximum detection range are investigated. The results show that stronger emitted pulse energy, lower noise level, more front echo position in the range gate, higher atmospheric attenuation coefficient, and higher target reflectivity can result in greater maximum detection range. It is also shown that it's important to select the minimum acceptable detection probability, which is equivalent to the system signal-to-noise ratio for producing greater maximum detection range and lower false-alarm probability.

  16. A dual method for maximum entropy restoration

    Smith, C. B.


    A simple iterative dual algorithm for maximum entropy image restoration is presented. The dual algorithm involves fewer parameters than conventional minimization in the image space. Minicomputer test results for Fourier synthesis with inadequate phantom data are given.

  17. Maximum Throughput in Multiple-Antenna Systems

    Zamani, Mahdi


    The point-to-point multiple-antenna channel is investigated in uncorrelated block fading environment with Rayleigh distribution. The maximum throughput and maximum expected-rate of this channel are derived under the assumption that the transmitter is oblivious to the channel state information (CSI), however, the receiver has perfect CSI. First, we prove that in multiple-input single-output (MISO) channels, the optimum transmission strategy maximizing the throughput is to use all available antennas and perform equal power allocation with uncorrelated signals. Furthermore, to increase the expected-rate, multi-layer coding is applied. Analogously, we establish that sending uncorrelated signals and performing equal power allocation across all available antennas at each layer is optimum. A closed form expression for the maximum continuous-layer expected-rate of MISO channels is also obtained. Moreover, we investigate multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channels, and formulate the maximum throughput in the asympt...

  18. Photoemission spectromicroscopy with MAXIMUM at Wisconsin

    Ng, W.; Ray-Chaudhuri, A.K.; Cole, R.K.; Wallace, J.; Crossley, S.; Crossley, D.; Chen, G.; Green, M.; Guo, J.; Hansen, R.W.C.; Cerrina, F.; Margaritondo, G. (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Dept. of Physics and Synchrotron Radiation Center, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison (USA)); Underwood, J.H.; Korthright, J.; Perera, R.C.C. (Center for X-ray Optics, Accelerator and Fusion Research Div., Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (USA))


    We describe the development of the scanning photoemission spectromicroscope MAXIMUM at the Wisoncsin Synchrotron Radiation Center, which uses radiation from a 30-period undulator. The article includes a discussion of the first tests after the initial commissioning. (orig.).

  19. Maximum-likelihood method in quantum estimation

    Paris, M G A; Sacchi, M F


    The maximum-likelihood method for quantum estimation is reviewed and applied to the reconstruction of density matrix of spin and radiation as well as to the determination of several parameters of interest in quantum optics.

  20. Open life science research, open software and the open century

    Youhua Chen


    At the age of knowledge explosion and mass scientific information, I highlighted the importance of conducting open science in life and medical researches through the extensive usage of open software and documents...