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Sample records for markov switching linear

  1. Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models used to identify forest tree growth components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Guédon, Yann; Lavergne, Christian; Trottier, Catherine

    2010-09-01

    Tree growth is assumed to be mainly the result of three components: (i) an endogenous component assumed to be structured as a succession of roughly stationary phases separated by marked change points that are asynchronous among individuals, (ii) a time-varying environmental component assumed to take the form of synchronous fluctuations among individuals, and (iii) an individual component corresponding mainly to the local environment of each tree. To identify and characterize these three components, we propose to use semi-Markov switching linear mixed models, i.e., models that combine linear mixed models in a semi-Markovian manner. The underlying semi-Markov chain represents the succession of growth phases and their lengths (endogenous component) whereas the linear mixed models attached to each state of the underlying semi-Markov chain represent-in the corresponding growth phase-both the influence of time-varying climatic covariates (environmental component) as fixed effects, and interindividual heterogeneity (individual component) as random effects. In this article, we address the estimation of Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models in a general framework. We propose a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization like algorithm whose iterations decompose into three steps: (i) sampling of state sequences given random effects, (ii) prediction of random effects given state sequences, and (iii) maximization. The proposed statistical modeling approach is illustrated by the analysis of successive annual shoots along Corsican pine trunks influenced by climatic covariates. © 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Pemodelan Markov Switching Autoregressive

    OpenAIRE

    Ariyani, Fiqria Devi; Warsito, Budi; Yasin, Hasbi

    2014-01-01

    Transition from depreciation to appreciation of exchange rate is one of regime switching that ignored by classic time series model, such as ARIMA, ARCH, or GARCH. Therefore, economic variables are modeled by Markov Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) which consider the regime switching. MLE is not applicable to parameters estimation because regime is an unobservable variable. So that filtering and smoothing process are applied to see the regime probabilities of observation. Using this model, tran...

  3. Switching Markov chains for a holistic modeling of SIS unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechri, Walid; Simon, Christophe; BenOthman, Kamel

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a holistic approach to model the Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS). The model is based on Switching Markov Chain and integrates several parameters like Common Cause Failure, Imperfect Proof testing, partial proof testing, etc. The basic concepts of Switching Markov Chain applied to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the unavailability for a case study is presented. The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows us to assess the effect of each parameter on the SIS performance. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. - Highlights: • A holistic approach to model the unavailability safety systems using Switching Markov chains. • The model integrates several parameters like probability of failure due to the test, the probability of not detecting a failure in a test. • The basic concepts of the Switching Markov Chains are introduced and applied to compute the unavailability for safety systems. • The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows assessing the effect of each parameter on the chemical reactor performance

  4. Markov switching mean-variance frontier dynamics: theory and international evidence

    OpenAIRE

    M. Guidolin; F. Ria

    2010-01-01

    It is well-known that regime switching models are able to capture the presence of rich non-linear patterns in the joint distribution of asset returns. After reviewing key concepts and technical issues related to specifying, estimating, and using multivariate Markov switching models in financial applications, in this paper we map the presence of regimes in means, variances, and covariances of asset returns into explicit dynamics of the Markowitz mean-variance frontier. In particular, we show b...

  5. Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Z.; Pistorius, M.

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a

  6. Pemodelan Markov Switching Dengan Time-varying Transition Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Savitri, Anggita Puri; Warsito, Budi; Rahmawati, Rita

    2016-01-01

    Exchange rate or currency is an economic variable which reflects country's state of economy. It fluctuates over time because of its ability to switch the condition or regime caused by economic and political factors. The changes in the exchange rate are depreciation and appreciation. Therefore, it could be modeled using Markov Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probability which observe the conditional changes and use information variable. From this model, time-varying transition probabili...

  7. Guaranteed cost control of mobile sensor networks with Markov switching topologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yuan; Guo, Ge; Ding, Lei

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates the consensus seeking problem of mobile sensor networks (MSNs) with random switching topologies. The network communication topologies are composed of a set of directed graphs (or digraph) with a spanning tree. The switching of topologies is governed by a Markov chain. The consensus seeking problem is addressed by introducing a global topology-aware linear quadratic (LQ) cost as the performance measure. By state transformation, the consensus problem is transformed to the stabilization of a Markovian jump system with guaranteed cost. A sufficient condition for global mean-square consensus is derived in the context of stochastic stability analysis of Markovian jump systems. A computational algorithm is given to synchronously calculate both the sub-optimal consensus controller gains and the sub-minimum upper bound of the cost. The effectiveness of the proposed design method is illustrated by three numerical examples. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Simulation of linear Switched Reluctance Motor drives

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia Amoros, Jordi; Blanqué Molina, Balduino; Andrada Gascón, Pedro

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a simulation model of linear switched reluctance motor drives. A Matlab-Simulink environment coupled with finite element analysis is used to perform the simulations. Experimental and simulation results for a double sided linear switched motor drive prototype are reported and compared to verify the simulation model.

  9. Gold price effect on stock market: A Markov switching vector error correction approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wai, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Kun, Sek Siok

    2014-06-01

    Gold is a popular precious metal where the demand is driven not only for practical use but also as a popular investments commodity. While stock market represents a country growth, thus gold price effect on stock market behavior as interest in the study. Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models are applied to analysis the relationship between gold price and stock market changes since real financial data always exhibit regime switching, jumps or missing data through time. Besides, there are numerous specifications of Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models and this paper will compare the intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model and intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model to determine the best model representation in capturing the transition of the time series. Results have shown that gold price has a positive relationship with Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia stock market and a two regime intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model is able to provide the more significance and reliable result compare to intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models.

  10. Spectral analysis and markov switching model of Indonesia business cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajar, Muhammad; Darwis, Sutawanir; Darmawan, Gumgum

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to investigate the Indonesia business cycle encompassing the determination of smoothing parameter (λ) on Hodrick-Prescott filter. Subsequently, the components of the filter output cycles were analyzed using a spectral method useful to know its characteristics, and Markov switching regime modeling is made to forecast the probability recession and expansion regimes. The data used in the study is real GDP (1983Q1 - 2016Q2). The results of the study are: a) Hodrick-Prescott filter on real GDP of Indonesia to be optimal when the value of the smoothing parameter is 988.474, b) Indonesia business cycle has amplitude varies between±0.0071 to±0.01024, and the duration is between 4 to 22 quarters, c) the business cycle can be modelled by MSIV-AR (2) but regime periodization is generated this model not perfect exactly with real regime periodzation, and d) Based on the model MSIV-AR (2) obtained long-term probabilities in the expansion regime: 0.4858 and in the recession regime: 0.5142.

  11. DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA: A MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinlo A. Enisan

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have analyzed the movement of foreign direct investment in Nigeria using linear approach. In contrast with all existing studies in Nigeria, this paper runs several non linear FDI equations where the main determinants of FDI are determined using Markov- Regime Switching Model (MSMs. The approach enables us to observe structural changes, where exist, in FDI equations through time. Asides, where FDI regression equation is truly nonlinear, MSMs fit data better than the linear models. The paper adopts maximum likelihood methodology of Markov-Regime Model (MSM to identify possible structural changes in level and/or trends and possible changes in parameters of independent variables through the transition probabilities. The results show that FDI process in Nigeria is governed by two different regimes and a shift from one regime to another regime depends on transition probabilities. The results show that the main determinants of FDI are GDP growth, macro instability, financial development, exchange rate, inflation and discount rate. This implies liberalization that stems inflation and enhance the value of domestic currency will attract more FDI into the country.

  12. Balanced truncation for linear switched systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petreczky, Mihaly; Wisniewski, Rafal; Leth, John-Josef

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of the model reduction algorithm for linear switched systems from Shaker and Wisniewski (2011, 2009) and . This algorithm is a reminiscence of the balanced truncation method for linear parameter varying systems (Wood et al., 1996) [3]. Specifically...

  13. Disturbance Decoupling of Switched Linear Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yurtseven, E.; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; Camlibel, M.K.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we consider disturbance decoupling problems for switched linear systems. We will provide necessary and sufficient conditions for three different versions of disturbance decoupling, which differ based on which signals are considered to be the disturbance. In the first version the

  14. Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mari, Carlo; Cananà, Lucianna

    2012-02-01

    Regime-switching models seem to well capture the main features of power prices behavior in deregulated markets. In a recent paper, we have proposed an equilibrium methodology to derive electricity prices dynamics from the interplay between supply and demand in a stochastic environment. In particular, assuming that the supply function is described by a power law where the exponent is a two-state strictly positive Markov process, we derived a regime switching dynamics of power prices in which regime switches are induced by transitions between Markov states. In this paper, we provide a dynamical model to describe the random behavior of power prices where the only non-Brownian component of the motion is endogenously introduced by Markov transitions in the exponent of the electricity supply curve. In this context, the stochastic process driving the switching mechanism becomes observable, and we will show that the non-Brownian component of the dynamics induced by transitions from Markov states is responsible for jumps and spikes of very high magnitude. The empirical analysis performed on three Australian markets confirms that the proposed approach seems quite flexible and capable of incorporating the main features of power prices time-series, thus reproducing the first four moments of log-returns empirical distributions in a satisfactory way.

  15. Predicting Equity Markets with Digital Online Media Sentiment: Evidence from Markov-switching Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooijen, S.J.; Broda, S.A.

    2016-01-01

    The authors examine the predictive capabilities of online investor sentiment for the returns and volatility of MSCI U.S. Equity Sector Indices by including exogenous variables in the mean and volatility specifications of a Markov-switching model. As predicted by the semistrong efficient market

  16. Modeling digital switching circuits with linear algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Thornton, Mitchell A

    2014-01-01

    Modeling Digital Switching Circuits with Linear Algebra describes an approach for modeling digital information and circuitry that is an alternative to Boolean algebra. While the Boolean algebraic model has been wildly successful and is responsible for many advances in modern information technology, the approach described in this book offers new insight and different ways of solving problems. Modeling the bit as a vector instead of a scalar value in the set {0, 1} allows digital circuits to be characterized with transfer functions in the form of a linear transformation matrix. The use of transf

  17. A study on switched linear system identification using game ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study on switched linear system identification using game-theoretic strategies and neural computing. ... This study deals with application of game-theoretic strategies and neural computing to switched linear ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  18. Hierarchical Bayesian Markov switching models with application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holan, S.H.; Davis, G.M.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    The timing of spawning in fish is tightly linked to environmental factors; however, these factors are not very well understood for many species. Specifically, little information is available to guide recruitment efforts for endangered species such as the sturgeon. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the success of spawning of the shovelnose sturgeon which uses both biological and behavioural (longitudinal) data. In particular, we use data that were produced from a tracking study that was conducted in the Lower Missouri River. The data that were produced from this study consist of biological variables associated with readiness to spawn along with longitudinal behavioural data collected by using telemetry and archival data storage tags. These high frequency data are complex both biologically and in the underlying behavioural process. To accommodate such complexity we developed a hierarchical linear regression model that uses an eigenvalue predictor, derived from the transition probability matrix of a two-state Markov switching model with generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic dynamics. Finally, to minimize the computational burden that is associated with estimation of this model, a parallel computing approach is proposed. ?? Journal compilation 2009 Royal Statistical Society.

  19. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1975-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  20. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1974-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  1. The Effects of Crude Oil on Stock Markets with use of Markov Switching Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wiese, Thor August Mediaas

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, a two regime Markov switching (MS) model is implemented to examine the relationship between crude oil, both brent oil and WTI, and stock markets. In particular, the model is applied to stock markets in both oil importing and exporting countries which include Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. This paper first evaluates the significance of oil parameters in the detected regimes, where the two regimes respond to low mean...

  2. The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Business Cycle: A Markov Switching Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasif Abiyev

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and the output growth in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - The data were taken from International Financial Statistics databases, consisting of monthly data for the period 1986:01-2014:09. Different univariate Markov - switching regime autoregressive models are specified and estimated. Among them we selected univariate MSIH(3 - AR(2 model for output and extended it to verify if the inclusion of various asymmetric oil price shocks as an exogenous variable improves the ability of the Markov switching model. Four different oil price shocks are considered. Findings - We find that among various oil price shocks, only net oil price increases have negative effects on output growth and mitigate the magnitude of some recessionary periods in Turkey. However, it doesn’t strongly explain the behavior of business cycle in Turkey. Research limitations/implications - Our results suggest that the inclusion of other fundamental financial factors in the bivariate Markov switching model of aggregate economic activity and oil price changes becomes important to explicitly detect the negative impact of oil price shocks on output in Turkey. Originality/value - Our results support the existence of a negative relationship between oil price increases and output growth mentioned in the literature and empirical studies on Turkey.

  3. Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system control using temporal databases. ... design of fault-tolerant real-time switching systems control and modelling embedded micro-schedulers for complex systems maintenance.

  4. Optimal Control of Switching Linear Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Benmerzouga

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available A solution to the control of switching linear systems with input constraints was given in Benmerzouga (1997 for both the conventional enumeration approach and the new approach. The solution given there turned out to be not unique. The main objective in this work is to determine the optimal control sequences {Ui(k ,  i = 1,..., M ;  k = 0, 1, ...,  N -1} which transfer the system from a given initial state  X0  to a specific target state  XT  (or to be as close as possible by using the same discrete time solution obtained in Benmerzouga (1997 and minimizing a running cost-to-go function. By using the dynamic programming technique, the optimal solution is found for both approaches given in Benmerzouga (1997. The computational complexity of the modified algorithm is also given.

  5. Finite-Time Nonfragile Synchronization of Stochastic Complex Dynamical Networks with Semi-Markov Switching Outer Coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rathinasamy Sakthivel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of robust nonfragile synchronization is investigated in this paper for a class of complex dynamical networks subject to semi-Markov jumping outer coupling, time-varying coupling delay, randomly occurring gain variation, and stochastic noise over a desired finite-time interval. In particular, the network topology is assumed to follow a semi-Markov process such that it may switch from one to another at different instants. In this paper, the random gain variation is represented by a stochastic variable that is assumed to satisfy the Bernoulli distribution with white sequences. Based on these hypotheses and the Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theory, a new finite-time stochastic synchronization criterion is established for the considered network in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Moreover, the control design parameters that guarantee the required criterion are computed by solving a set of linear matrix inequality constraints. An illustrative example is finally given to show the effectiveness and advantages of the developed analytical results.

  6. Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania

    2012-01-01

    Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

  7. Stability analysis of switched linear systems defined by graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Athanasopoulos, N.; Lazar, M.

    2014-01-01

    We present necessary and sufficient conditions for global exponential stability for switched discrete-time linear systems, under arbitrary switching, which is constrained within a set of admissible transitions. The class of systems studied includes the family of systems under arbitrary switching,

  8. Mixture estimation with state-space components and Markov model of switching

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nagy, Ivan; Suzdaleva, Evgenia

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 24 (2013), s. 9970-9984 ISSN 0307-904X R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA01030123 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : probabilistic dynamic mixtures, * probability density function * state-space models * recursive mixture estimation * Bayesian dynamic decision making under uncertainty * Kerridge inaccuracy Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 2.158, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/nagy-mixture estimation with state-space components and markov model of switching.pdf

  9. Stability analysis of linear switching systems with time delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ping; Zhong Shouming; Cui Jinzhong

    2009-01-01

    The issue of stability analysis of linear switching system with discrete and distributed time delays is studied in this paper. An appropriate switching rule is applied to guarantee the stability of the whole switching system. Our results use a Riccati-type Lyapunov functional under a condition on the time delay. So, switching systems with mixed delays are developed. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.

  10. Water exchange traded funds: A study on idiosyncratic risk using Markov switching analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurudeo Anand Tularam

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and return among four water exchange traded funds—PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio, Power Shares Global Water, First Trust ISE Water Index Fund, and Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index ETF using the Markov switching model for the period 2007–2015. The generated transition probabilities in this paper show that there is a high and low probability of switching between Regimes 1 and 3, respectively. Moreover, we find that the idiosyncratic risk for most of the exchange traded funds move from low volatility (Regime 2 to very low volatility (Regime 1 and 3. Our study also identify that the beta coefficients are positive and entire values are less than 1. Thus, it seems that water investment has a lower systematic risk and a positive effect on the water exchange traded index funds returns during different regimes.

  11. The Role of Consumer Confidence as a Leading Indicator on Stock Returns: A Markov Switching Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koy AYBEN

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Investor’s psychological and emotional factors lead to irrationality in financial decision making and anomalies in prices. Investor sentiment and psychology help to elucidate phenomena in financial markets that cannot be explained by traditional theory. The aim of this study is two-fold: it investigates whether mutual regime switching behavior exists between the consumer indices and equity index, and examines their dynamics in response to each other in different regimes. This study applies the Markov Regime Switching model to monthly data from the BIST100 Return Index, Bloomberg Confidence Index, TUIK Confidence Index, Real Sector Confidence Index for the period between 2007:01 and 2016:06. The results indicate if consumer indices point out negative signals, capital market still gains in normal periods of economy. If they only in a recession or an expansion regime do, each of the indices moves in the same direction.

  12. Converging from Branching to Linear Metrics on Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacci, Giorgio; Bacci, Giovanni; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2015-01-01

    time in the size of the MC. The upper-approximants are Kantorovich-like pseudometrics, i.e. branching-time distances, that converge point-wise to the linear-time metrics. This convergence is interesting in itself, since it reveals a nontrivial relation between branching and linear-time metric...

  13. Converging from branching to linear metrics on Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacci, Giorgio; Bacci, Giovanni; Larsen, Kim G.

    2017-01-01

    -approximant is computable in polynomial time in the size of the MC. The upper-approximants are bisimilarity-like pseudometrics (hence, branching-time distances) that converge point-wise to the linear-time metrics. This convergence is interesting in itself, because it reveals a nontrivial relation between branching...

  14. Stability analysis of switched linear systems defined by graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Athanasopoulos, Nikolaos; Lazar, Mircea

    2015-01-01

    We present necessary and sufficient conditions for global exponential stability for switched discrete-time linear systems, under arbitrary switching, which is constrained within a set of admissible transitions. The class of systems studied includes the family of systems under arbitrary switching, periodic systems, and systems with minimum and maximum dwell time specifications. To reach the result, we describe the set of rules that define the admissible transitions with a weighted directed gra...

  15. Generalization of the Wide-Sense Markov Concept to a Widely Linear Processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa-Pulido, Juan Antonio; Navarro-Moreno, Jesús; Fernández-Alcalá, Rosa María; Ruiz-Molina, Juan Carlos; Oya-Lechuga, Antonia; Ruiz-Fuentes, Nuria

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we show that the classical definition and the associated characterizations of wide-sense Markov (WSM) signals are not valid for improper complex signals. For that, we propose an extension of the concept of WSM to a widely linear (WL) setting and the study of new characterizations. Specifically, we introduce a new class of signals, called widely linear Markov (WLM) signals, and we analyze some of their properties based either on second-order properties or on state-space models from a WL processing standpoint. The study is performed in both the forwards and backwards directions of time. Thus, we provide two forwards and backwards Markovian representations for WLM signals. Finally, different estimation recursive algorithms are obtained for these models

  16. Advances in the control of markov jump linear systems with no mode observation

    CERN Document Server

    Vargas, Alessandro N; do Val, João B R

    2016-01-01

    This brief broadens readers’ understanding of stochastic control by highlighting recent advances in the design of optimal control for Markov jump linear systems (MJLS). It also presents an algorithm that attempts to solve this open stochastic control problem, and provides a real-time application for controlling the speed of direct current motors, illustrating the practical usefulness of MJLS. Particularly, it offers novel insights into the control of systems when the controller does not have access to the Markovian mode.

  17. Optimal Linear Responses for Markov Chains and Stochastically Perturbed Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antown, Fadi; Dragičević, Davor; Froyland, Gary

    2018-03-01

    The linear response of a dynamical system refers to changes to properties of the system when small external perturbations are applied. We consider the little-studied question of selecting an optimal perturbation so as to (i) maximise the linear response of the equilibrium distribution of the system, (ii) maximise the linear response of the expectation of a specified observable, and (iii) maximise the linear response of the rate of convergence of the system to the equilibrium distribution. We also consider the inhomogeneous, sequential, or time-dependent situation where the governing dynamics is not stationary and one wishes to select a sequence of small perturbations so as to maximise the overall linear response at some terminal time. We develop the theory for finite-state Markov chains, provide explicit solutions for some illustrative examples, and numerically apply our theory to stochastically perturbed dynamical systems, where the Markov chain is replaced by a matrix representation of an approximate annealed transfer operator for the random dynamical system.

  18. Link between unemployment and crime in the US: a Markov-Switching approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallahi, Firouz; Rodríguez, Gabriel

    2014-05-01

    This study has two goals. The first is to use Markov Switching models to identify and analyze the cycles in the unemployment rate and four different types of property-related criminal activities in the US. The second is to apply the nonparametric concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006) to determine the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and property crimes. Findings show that there is a positive but insignificant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary, larceny, and robbery. However, the unemployment rate has a significant and negative (i.e., a counter-cyclical) relationship with motor-vehicle theft. Therefore, more motor-vehicle thefts occur during economic expansions relative to contractions. Next, we divide the sample into three different subsamples to examine the consistency of the findings. The results show that the co-movements between the unemployment rate and property crimes during recession periods are much weaker, when compared with that of the normal periods of the US economy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The causal link between energy and output growth: Evidence from Markov switching Granger causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a Markov switching Granger causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using annual U.S. real GDP, total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010. We find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation. Our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis. We also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. Furthermore, the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s. - Highlights: • Total energy consumption has predictive content for real economic activity. • The causality from energy to output growth is apparent in the periods of recession. • The causality from energy to output growth is strong in the periods of energy crisis. • Output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. • The power of output growth in explaining energy diminishes after the mid of 1980s

  20. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  1. Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kutu Adebayo Augustine

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001 Markov-Switching Model (MSM and monthly data from 1994.01–2013.12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries’ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It can also be observed that the area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It has also been established that there is a high probability of moving from state one (recession to state two (expansion and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy, especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output.

  2. A two-states Markov-switching model of inflation in France and the USA: credible target VS inflation spiral

    OpenAIRE

    B. HEITZ

    2005-01-01

    This paper seeks to apply the general framework of Markov-switching models to inflation in France and in the USA. We propose a model where inflation can, alternatively, follow two regimes: the first one, where inflation is stationary, is interpreted as a situation where there exists a credible inflation target, even if it is not explicit; the second one where inflation is integrated. Moreover, observing that the two oil shocks were followed by accelerating inflation periods, we allow dependen...

  3. Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Asia's  inancial  crisis  in  July  1997  affects  currency,  capital  market,  and  real  market throughout  Asian  countries.  Countries  in  southeast  region  (ASEAN,  including  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis hit  the  most.  In  these  countries,  where  inancial  sectors  are  far  more  developed  than  real sectors  and  the  money  market  sectors,  most  of  the  economic  activities  are  conducted  in capital  market.  Movement  in  the  capital  market  could  be  a  proxy  to  describe  the  overall economic  situation  and  therefore  the  prediction  of  it  could  be  an  early  warning  system  of economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,  Singapore,  and  Thailand  capital  market  to  build  an  early  warning  system from inancial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneicial for the government to anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990 model of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes, describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency to  model  the  regime  switching.  This  research  aimed  to  ind  the  probability  of  crisis  in  the future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of each  regime.  Probability  of  switching  is  estimated  by  categorizing  the  movement  in  index return  into  two  regimes  (negative  return  in  regime  1  and  positive  return  in  regime  2  then measuring  the  proportion  of  switching  to  regime  1  in  t  given  regime

  4. Subnanosecond linear GaAs photoconductive switching: Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, R.L.; Pocha, M.D.; Griffin, K.L.; Hofer, W.W.

    1989-01-01

    We are conducting research in photoconductive switching for the purpose of generating subnanosecond pulses in the 25--50kV range. We are exploiting the very fast recombination rates of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) to explore the potential of GaAs as a closing and opening switch when operating in the linear mode (the linear mode is defined such that one carrier pair is generated for each photon absorbed). The closing time of a linear GaAs switch is theoretically limited by the characteristics of the laser pulse used to activate the switch (the carrier generation time in GaAs is /approximately/10/sup /minus/14/ sec) while the opening time is theoretically limited by the recombination time of the carriers. The recombination time is several ns for commercially available semi-insulating GaAs. Doping or neutron irradiation can reduce the recombination time to less than 100 ps. We have observed switch closing times of less than 200 ps with a 100 ps duration laser pulse and opening times of less than 400 ps with neutron irradiated GaAs at fields of tens of kV/cm. The illumination source was a Nd:YAG laser operating at 1.06 /mu/m. 4 refs., 11 figs.

  5. Subnanosecond linear GaAs photoconductive switching, revision 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druce, R. L.; Pocha, M. D.; Griffin, K. L.; Hofer, W. W.

    Research was conducted in photoconductive switching for the purpose of generating subnanosecond pulses in the 25 to 50kV range. The very fast recombination rates of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) was exploited to explore the potential of GaAs as a closing and opening switch when operating in the linear mode (the linear mode is defined such that one carrier pair is generated for each photon absorbed). The closing time of a linear GaAs switch is theoretically limited by the characteristics of the laser pulse used to activate the switch (the carrier generation time in GaAs is (approx. 10(-14) sec) while the opening time is theoretically limited by the recombination time of the carriers. The recombination time is several ns for commercially available semi-insulating GaAs. Doping or neutron irradiation can reduce the recombination time to less than 100 ps. Switch closing times of less than 200 ps with a 100 ps duration laser pulse and opening times of less than 400 ps with neutron irradiated GaAs at fields of tens of kV/cm was observed. The illumination source was a Nd:YAG laser operating at 1.06 microns.

  6. Theoretical analysis of balanced truncation for linear switched systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petreczky, Mihaly; Wisniewski, Rafal; Leth, John-Josef

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present theoretical analysis of model reduction of linear switched systems based on balanced truncation, presented in [1,2]. More precisely, (1) we provide a bound on the estimation error using L2 gain, (2) we provide a system theoretic interpretation of grammians and their singu......In this paper we present theoretical analysis of model reduction of linear switched systems based on balanced truncation, presented in [1,2]. More precisely, (1) we provide a bound on the estimation error using L2 gain, (2) we provide a system theoretic interpretation of grammians...... for showing this independence is realization theory of linear switched systems. [1] H. R. Shaker and R. Wisniewski, "Generalized gramian framework for model/controller order reduction of switched systems", International Journal of Systems Science, Vol. 42, Issue 8, 2011, 1277-1291. [2] H. R. Shaker and R....... Wisniewski, "Switched Systems Reduction Framework Based on Convex Combination of Generalized Gramians", Journal of Control Science and Engineering, 2009....

  7. Switching control of linear systems for generating chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xinzhi; Teo, Kok-Lay; Zhang Hongtao; Chen Guanrong

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a new switching method is developed, which can be applied to generating different types of chaos or chaos-like dynamics from two or more linear systems. A numerical simulation is given to illustrate the generated chaotic dynamic behavior of the systems with some variable parameters. Finally, a circuit is built to realize various chaotic dynamical behaviors

  8. Impact of variable renewable production on electricity prices in Germany: a Markov switching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin de Lagarde, Cyril; Lantz, Frederic

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims at assessing the impact of renewable energy sources (RES) production on electricity spot prices. To do so, we use a two-regime Markov Switching (MS) model, that enables to disentangle the so-called 'merit-order effect' due to wind and solar photovoltaic productions (used in relative share of the electricity demand), depending on the price being high or low. We find that there are effectively two distinct price regimes that are put to light thanks to an inverse hyperbolic sine transformation that allows to treat negative prices. We also show that these two regimes coincide quite well with two regimes for the electricity demand (load). Indeed, when demand is low, prices are low and the merit-order effect is lower than when prices are high, which is consistent with the fact that the inverse supply curve is convex (i.e. has increasing slope). To illustrate this, we computed the mean marginal effects of RES production and load. On average, an increase of 1 GW of wind will decrease the price in regime 1 (resp. 2) by 0.77 euro /MWh (resp. 1 euro /MWh). The influence of solar is slightly weaker, as an extra gigawatt lowers the price of 0.73 euro /MWh in period 1, and 0.96 euro /MWh in regime 2. On the contrary, if the demand increases by 1 GW in regime 1 (resp. 2), the price increases on average by 0.93 euro /MWh (resp. 1.18 euro /MWh). Although we made sure these marginal effects are significantly different from one another, they are much more variable than the estimated coefficients of the model. Also, note that these marginal effects are only valid inside each regime when there is no switching. The latter regime partly corresponds to the high load regime, at the exception of periods during which RES production is high. The impact on volatility could also be observed: the variance of the (transformed) price is higher during the high-price regime than in the low-price one. In addition to the switching of the coefficients, we allowed the probabilities of

  9. Conditions for the Solvability of the Linear Programming Formulation for Constrained Discounted Markov Decision Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufour, F., E-mail: dufour@math.u-bordeaux1.fr [Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux, INRIA Bordeaux Sud Ouest, Team: CQFD, and IMB (France); Prieto-Rumeau, T., E-mail: tprieto@ccia.uned.es [UNED, Department of Statistics and Operations Research (Spain)

    2016-08-15

    We consider a discrete-time constrained discounted Markov decision process (MDP) with Borel state and action spaces, compact action sets, and lower semi-continuous cost functions. We introduce a set of hypotheses related to a positive weight function which allow us to consider cost functions that might not be bounded below by a constant, and which imply the solvability of the linear programming formulation of the constrained MDP. In particular, we establish the existence of a constrained optimal stationary policy. Our results are illustrated with an application to a fishery management problem.

  10. Non-cooperative stochastic differential game theory of generalized Markov jump linear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Cheng-ke; Zhou, Hai-ying; Bin, Ning

    2017-01-01

    This book systematically studies the stochastic non-cooperative differential game theory of generalized linear Markov jump systems and its application in the field of finance and insurance. The book is an in-depth research book of the continuous time and discrete time linear quadratic stochastic differential game, in order to establish a relatively complete framework of dynamic non-cooperative differential game theory. It uses the method of dynamic programming principle and Riccati equation, and derives it into all kinds of existence conditions and calculating method of the equilibrium strategies of dynamic non-cooperative differential game. Based on the game theory method, this book studies the corresponding robust control problem, especially the existence condition and design method of the optimal robust control strategy. The book discusses the theoretical results and its applications in the risk control, option pricing, and the optimal investment problem in the field of finance and insurance, enriching the...

  11. Klystron switching power supplies for the Internation Linear Collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraioli, Andrea; /Cassino U. /INFN, Pisa

    2009-12-01

    The International Linear Collider is a majestic High Energy Physics particle accelerator that will give physicists a new cosmic doorway to explore energy regimes beyond the reach of today's accelerators. ILC will complement the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), a proton-proton collider at the European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, by producing electron-positron collisions at center of mass energy of about 500 GeV. In particular, the subject of this dissertation is the R&D for a solid state Marx Modulator and relative switching power supply for the International Linear Collider Main LINAC Radio Frequency stations.

  12. True and apparent scaling: The proximity of the Markov-switching multifractal model to long-range dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruipeng; Di Matteo, T.; Lux, Thomas

    2007-09-01

    In this paper, we consider daily financial data of a collection of different stock market indices, exchange rates, and interest rates, and we analyze their multi-scaling properties by estimating a simple specification of the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model. In order to see how well the estimated model captures the temporal dependence of the data, we estimate and compare the scaling exponents H(q) (for q=1,2) for both empirical data and simulated data of the MSM model. In most cases the multifractal model appears to generate ‘apparent’ long memory in agreement with the empirical scaling laws.

  13. Impulsive Control for Continuous-Time Markov Decision Processes: A Linear Programming Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufour, F., E-mail: dufour@math.u-bordeaux1.fr [Bordeaux INP, IMB, UMR CNRS 5251 (France); Piunovskiy, A. B., E-mail: piunov@liv.ac.uk [University of Liverpool, Department of Mathematical Sciences (United Kingdom)

    2016-08-15

    In this paper, we investigate an optimization problem for continuous-time Markov decision processes with both impulsive and continuous controls. We consider the so-called constrained problem where the objective of the controller is to minimize a total expected discounted optimality criterion associated with a cost rate function while keeping other performance criteria of the same form, but associated with different cost rate functions, below some given bounds. Our model allows multiple impulses at the same time moment. The main objective of this work is to study the associated linear program defined on a space of measures including the occupation measures of the controlled process and to provide sufficient conditions to ensure the existence of an optimal control.

  14. A novel linear switched reluctance motor for railway transportation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daldaban, Ferhat; Ustkoyuncu, Nurettin

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the design and realization of a new linear switched reluctance motor (LSRM) structure, especially suitable for high-speed railway systems. The new model has a double active stator configuration and provides high force for many applications with low cost. The characteristics of the LSRM are obtained by using finite element analysis (FEA) and analytical calculations. The results of the FEA and analytical calculations are presented, and compared with experimental results. In addition, a classical double-sided LSRM (DSLSRM) is modeled with the same specifications of the new motor structure and the results are compared.

  15. Instantaneous Switching Processes in Quasi-Linear Circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rositsa Angelova

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers instantaneous processes in electrical circuits produced by the stepwise change of the capacitance of the capacitor and the inductance of the inductor and by the switching on and switching off of the circuit. In order to determine the set of electrical circuits, for which it is possible to explicitly obtain the values of the currents and the voltages at the end of the instantaneous process, a classification of the networks with nonlinear elements is introduced in the paper. The instantaneous switching process in the moment t0 is approximated when T->t0 with a sequence of processes in the interval [t0, T]. For quasi-linear inductive and capacitive circuits; we present the type of the system satisfied by the currents and the voltages, the charges, as well as the fluxes in the interval [t0, T]. From this system, after passage to the limit T->t0, we obtain the formulas for the values of the circuits at the end of the instantaneous process. The obtained results are applied for the analysis of particular processes.

  16. A new look at the robust control of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorov, M. G.; Fragoso, M. D.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we make a foray in the role played by a set of four operators on the study of robust H2 and mixed H2/H∞ control problems for discrete-time Markov jump linear systems. These operators appear in the study of mean square stability for this class of systems. By means of new linear matrix inequality (LMI) characterisations of controllers, which include slack variables that, to some extent, separate the robustness and performance objectives, we introduce four alternative approaches to the design of controllers which are robustly stabilising and at the same time provide a guaranteed level of H2 performance. Since each operator provides a different degree of conservatism, the results are unified in the form of an iterative LMI technique for designing robust H2 controllers, whose convergence is attained in a finite number of steps. The method yields a new way of computing mixed H2/H∞ controllers, whose conservatism decreases with iteration. Two numerical examples illustrate the applicability of the proposed results for the control of a small unmanned aerial vehicle, and for an underactuated robotic arm.

  17. Metode Linear Predictive Coding (LPC Pada klasifikasi Hidden Markov Model (HMM Untuk Kata Arabic pada penutur Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ririn Kusumawati

    2016-05-01

    In the classification, using Hidden Markov Model, voice signal is analyzed and searched the maximum possible value that can be recognized. The modeling results obtained parameters are used to compare with the sound of Arabic speakers. From the test results' Classification, Hidden Markov Models with Linear Predictive Coding extraction average accuracy of 78.6% for test data sampling frequency of 8,000 Hz, 80.2% for test data sampling frequency of 22050 Hz, 79% for frequencies sampling test data at 44100 Hz.

  18. Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    We define a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input (MARX) to generate runoff scenarios using climatic information. Runoff parameterization is assumed to be conditioned on a hidden climate state following a Markov chain, where state transition probabilities are functions...... of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...... Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition runoff parameterization. Among the investigated ENSO indexes, the NINO 1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and the trans-Nino index perform best as predictors. In the perspective of reservoir optimization at various time scales, MARX produces realistic...

  19. Probabilistic forecasting of wind power at the minute time-scale with Markov-switching autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    Better modelling and forecasting of very short-term power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms may significantly enhance control and management strategies of their power output. The paper introduces a new methodology for modelling and forecasting such very short-term fluctuations. The proposed...... consists in 1-step ahead forecasting exercise on time-series of wind generation with a time resolution of 10 minute. The quality of the introduced forecasting methodology and its interest for better understanding power fluctuations are finally discussed....... methodology is based on a Markov-switching autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients. An advantage of the method is that one can easily derive full predictive densities. The quality of this methodology is demonstrated from the test case of 2 large offshore wind farms in Denmark. The exercise...

  20. Markov Jump Linear Systems-Based Position Estimation for Lower Limb Exoskeletons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel L. Nogueira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we deal with Markov Jump Linear Systems-based filtering applied to robotic rehabilitation. The angular positions of an impedance-controlled exoskeleton, designed to help stroke and spinal cord injured patients during walking rehabilitation, are estimated. Standard position estimate approaches adopt Kalman filters (KF to improve the performance of inertial measurement units (IMUs based on individual link configurations. Consequently, for a multi-body system, like a lower limb exoskeleton, the inertial measurements of one link (e.g., the shank are not taken into account in other link position estimation (e.g., the foot. In this paper, we propose a collective modeling of all inertial sensors attached to the exoskeleton, combining them in a Markovian estimation model in order to get the best information from each sensor. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, simulation results regarding a set of human footsteps, with four IMUs and three encoders attached to the lower limb exoskeleton, are presented. A comparative study between the Markovian estimation system and the standard one is performed considering a wide range of parametric uncertainties.

  1. A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

  2. Hybrid Spectral Unmixing: Using Artificial Neural Networks for Linear/Non-Linear Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asmau M. Ahmed

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Spectral unmixing is a key process in identifying spectral signature of materials and quantifying their spatial distribution over an image. The linear model is expected to provide acceptable results when two assumptions are satisfied: (1 The mixing process should occur at macroscopic level and (2 Photons must interact with single material before reaching the sensor. However, these assumptions do not always hold and more complex nonlinear models are required. This study proposes a new hybrid method for switching between linear and nonlinear spectral unmixing of hyperspectral data based on artificial neural networks. The neural networks was trained with parameters within a window of the pixel under consideration. These parameters are computed to represent the diversity of the neighboring pixels and are based on the Spectral Angular Distance, Covariance and a non linearity parameter. The endmembers were extracted using Vertex Component Analysis while the abundances were estimated using the method identified by the neural networks (Vertex Component Analysis, Fully Constraint Least Square Method, Polynomial Post Nonlinear Mixing Model or Generalized Bilinear Model. Results show that the hybrid method performs better than each of the individual techniques with high overall accuracy, while the abundance estimation error is significantly lower than that obtained using the individual methods. Experiments on both synthetic dataset and real hyperspectral images demonstrated that the proposed hybrid switch method is efficient for solving spectral unmixing of hyperspectral images as compared to individual algorithms.

  3. Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    optimized is based on penalized maximum-likelihood, with exponential forgetting of past observations. MSAR models are then employed for 1-step-ahead point forecasting of 10-minute resolution time-series of wind power at two large offshore wind farms. They are favourably compared against persistence and Auto......Wind power production data at temporal resolutions of a few minutes exhibits successive periods with fluctuations of various dynamic nature and magnitude, which cannot be explained (so far) by the evolution of some explanatory variable. Our proposal is to capture this regime-switching behaviour......Regressive (AR) models. It is finally shown that the main interest of MSAR models lies in their ability to generate interval/density forecasts of significantly higher skill....

  4. Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    optimized is based on penalized maximum likelihood, with exponential forgetting of past observations. MSAR models are then employed for one-step-ahead point forecasting of 10 min resolution time series of wind power at two large offshore wind farms. They are favourably compared against persistence......Wind power production data at temporal resolutions of a few minutes exhibit successive periods with fluctuations of various dynamic nature and magnitude, which cannot be explained (so far) by the evolution of some explanatory variable. Our proposal is to capture this regime-switching behaviour...... and autoregressive models. It is finally shown that the main interest of MSAR models lies in their ability to generate interval/density forecasts of significantly higher skill....

  5. Time-dependent switched discrete-time linear systems control and filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Lixian; Shi, Peng; Lu, Qiugang

    2016-01-01

    This book focuses on the basic control and filtering synthesis problems for discrete-time switched linear systems under time-dependent switching signals. Chapter 1, as an introduction of the book, gives the backgrounds and motivations of switched systems, the definitions of the typical time-dependent switching signals, the differences and links to other types of systems with hybrid characteristics and a literature review mainly on the control and filtering for the underlying systems. By summarizing the multiple Lyapunov-like functions (MLFs) approach in which different requirements on comparisons of Lyapunov function values at switching instants, a series of methodologies are developed for the issues on stability and stabilization, and l2-gain performance or tube-based robustness for l∞ disturbance, respectively, in Chapters 2 and 3. Chapters 4 and 5 are devoted to the control and filtering problems for the time-dependent switched linear systems with either polytopic uncertainties or measurable time-varying...

  6. Evaluation of linearly solvable Markov decision process with dynamic model learning in a mobile robot navigation task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinjo, Ken; Uchibe, Eiji; Doya, Kenji

    2013-01-01

    Linearly solvable Markov Decision Process (LMDP) is a class of optimal control problem in which the Bellman's equation can be converted into a linear equation by an exponential transformation of the state value function (Todorov, 2009b). In an LMDP, the optimal value function and the corresponding control policy are obtained by solving an eigenvalue problem in a discrete state space or an eigenfunction problem in a continuous state using the knowledge of the system dynamics and the action, state, and terminal cost functions. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of the LMDP framework in real robot control, in which the dynamics of the body and the environment have to be learned from experience. We first perform a simulation study of a pole swing-up task to evaluate the effect of the accuracy of the learned dynamics model on the derived the action policy. The result shows that a crude linear approximation of the non-linear dynamics can still allow solution of the task, despite with a higher total cost. We then perform real robot experiments of a battery-catching task using our Spring Dog mobile robot platform. The state is given by the position and the size of a battery in its camera view and two neck joint angles. The action is the velocities of two wheels, while the neck joints were controlled by a visual servo controller. We test linear and bilinear dynamic models in tasks with quadratic and Guassian state cost functions. In the quadratic cost task, the LMDP controller derived from a learned linear dynamics model performed equivalently with the optimal linear quadratic regulator (LQR). In the non-quadratic task, the LMDP controller with a linear dynamics model showed the best performance. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the LMDP framework in real robot control even when simple linear models are used for dynamics learning.

  7. Simultaneous Balancing and Model Reduction of Switched Linear Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monshizadeh, Nima; Trentelman, Hendrikus; Camlibel, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, first, balanced truncation of linear systems is revisited. Then, simultaneous balancing of multiple linear systems is investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are introduced to identify the case where simultaneous balancing is possible. The validity of these conditions is not

  8. Evaluation of linearly solvable Markov decision process with dynamic model learning in a mobile robot navigation task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken eKinjo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Linearly solvable Markov Decision Process (LMDP is a class of optimal control problem in whichthe Bellman’s equation can be converted into a linear equation by an exponential transformation ofthe state value function (Todorov, 2009. In an LMDP, the optimal value function and the correspondingcontrol policy are obtained by solving an eigenvalue problem in a discrete state space or an eigenfunctionproblem in a continuous state using the knowledge of the system dynamics and the action, state, andterminal cost functions.In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of the LMDP framework in real robot control, in whichthe dynamics of the body and the environment have to be learned from experience. We first perform asimulation study of a pole swing-up task to evaluate the effect of the accuracy of the learned dynam-ics model on the derived the action policy. The result shows that a crude linear approximation of thenonlinear dynamics can still allow solution of the task, despite with a higher total cost.We then perform real robot experiments of a battery-catching task using our Spring Dog mobile robotplatform. The state is given by the position and the size of a battery in its camera view and two neck jointangles. The action is the velocities of two wheels, while the neck joints were controlled by a visual servocontroller. We test linear and bilinear dynamic models in tasks with quadratic and Guassian state costfunctions. In the quadratic cost task, the LMDP controller derived from a learned linear dynamics modelperformed equivalently with the optimal linear quadratic controller (LQR. In the non-quadratic task, theLMDP controller with a linear dynamics model showed the best performance. The results demonstratethe usefulness of the LMDP framework in real robot control even when simple linear models are usedfor dynamics learning.

  9. Simultaneous Balancing and Model Reduction of Switched Linear Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Monshizadeh, Nima; Trentelman, Hendrikus; Camlibel, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, first, balanced truncation of linear systems is revisited. Then, simultaneous balancing of multiple linear systems is investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are introduced to identify the case where simultaneous balancing is possible. The validity of these conditions is not limited to a certain type of balancing, and they are applicable for different types of balancing corresponding to different equations, like Lyapunov or Riccati equations. The results obtained are ...

  10. On the observer design problem for continuous-time switched linear systems with unknown switchings

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gómez–Gutiérrez, D.; Čelikovský, Sergej; Ramírez–Trevino, A.; Castillo-Toledo, B.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 352, č. 4 (2015), s. 1595-1612 ISSN 0016-0032 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-20433S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : observer design * switched systems Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 2.327, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/TR/celikovsky-0442959.pdf

  11. Investigations and Simulations of All optical Switches in linear state Based on Photonic Crystal Directional Coupler

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Maktoobi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Switching is a principle process in digital computers and signal processing systems. The growth of optical signal processing systems, draws particular attention to design of ultra-fast optical switches. In this paper, All Optical Switches in linear state Based On photonic crystal Directional coupler is analyzed and simulated. Among different methods, the finite difference time domain method (FDTD is a preferable method and is used. We have studied the application of photonic crystal lattices, the physics of optical switching and photonic crystal Directional coupler. In this paper, Electric field intensity and the power output that are two factors to improve the switching performance and the device efficiency are investigated and simulated. All simulations are performed by COMSOL software.

  12. Optimization design of the main switch in 12 MeV linear induction accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xin; Wang Jinsheng; Ding Hensong; Ye Yi

    2004-01-01

    A method for optimization design of the main switch (using in 12 MeV linear induction accelerator) was introduced. The switch's inductance was decreased from 63.7 nH to 35 nH by optimizing the configuration of the main switch and the size of the electric poles so that the accelerating cavity can get a better rising time of 27 ns. The accelerator's performance can be effectively improved through this method, the feasibility of the method is also proved by testing

  13. Mixed H∞ and passive control for linear switched systems via hybrid control approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qunxian; Ling, Youzhu; Wei, Lisheng; Zhang, Hongbin

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the mixed H∞ and passive control problem for linear switched systems based on a hybrid control strategy. To solve this problem, first, a new performance index is proposed. This performance index can be viewed as the mixed weighted H∞ and passivity performance. Then, the hybrid controllers are used to stabilise the switched systems. The hybrid controllers consist of dynamic output-feedback controllers for every subsystem and state updating controllers at the switching instant. The design of state updating controllers not only depends on the pre-switching subsystem and the post-switching subsystem, but also depends on the measurable output signal. The hybrid controllers proposed in this paper can include some existing ones as special cases. Combine the multiple Lyapunov functions approach with the average dwell time technique, new sufficient conditions are obtained. Under the new conditions, the closed-loop linear switched systems are globally uniformly asymptotically stable with a mixed H∞ and passivity performance index. Moreover, the desired hybrid controllers can be constructed by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a numerical example and a practical example are given.

  14. A polynomial approach for generating a monoparametric family of chaotic attractors via switched linear systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguirre-Hernández, B.; Campos-Cantón, E.; López-Renteria, J.A.; Díaz González, E.C.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we consider characteristic polynomials of n-dimensional systems that determine a segment of polynomials. One parameter is used to characterize this segment of polynomials in order to determine the maximal interval of dissipativity and unstability. Then we apply this result to the generation of a family of attractors based on a class of unstable dissipative systems (UDS) of type affine linear systems. This class of systems is comprised of switched linear systems yielding strange attractors. A family of these chaotic switched systems is determined by the maximal interval of perturbation of the matrix that governs the dynamics for still having scroll attractors

  15. Robust Stability and H∞ Control of Uncertain Piecewise Linear Switched Systems with Filippov Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmadi, Mohamadreza; Mojallali, Hamed; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the robust stability and control problem of uncertain piecewise linear switched systems where, instead of the conventional Carathe ́odory solutions, we allow for Filippov solutions. In other words, in contrast to the previous studies, solutions with infinite switching in fini...... algorithm is proposed to surmount the aforementioned matrix inequality conditions....... time along the facets and on faces of arbitrary dimensions are also taken into account. Firstly, based on earlier results, the stability problem of piecewise linear systems with Filippov solutions is translated into a number of linear matrix inequality feasibility tests. Subsequently, a set of matrix...... inequalities are brought forward, which determines the asymptotic stability of the Filippov solutions of a given uncertain piecewise linear system. Afterwards, bilinear matrix inequality conditions for synthesizing a robust controller with a guaranteed H∞ per- formance are formulated. Finally, a V-K iteration...

  16. Weighted H∞ Filtering for a Class of Switched Linear Systems with Additive Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-li Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the problem of weighted H∞ filtering for a class of switched linear systems with two additive time-varying delays, which represent a general class of switched time-delay systems with strong practical background. Combining average dwell time (ADT technique with piecewise Lyapunov functionals, sufficient conditions are established to guarantee the exponential stability and weighted H∞ performance for the filtering error systems. The parameters of the designed switched filters are obtained by solving linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. A modification of Jensen integral inequality is exploited to derive results with less theoretical conservatism and computational complexity. Finally, two examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. Exponential stability of switched linear systems with time-varying delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satiracoo Pairote

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available We use a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach to establish the exponential stability of linear systems with time-varying delay. Our delay-dependent condition allows to compute simultaneously the two bounds that characterize the exponential stability rate of the solution. A simple procedure for constructing switching rule is also presented.

  18. Diode array pumped, non-linear mirror Q-switched and mode-locked

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A non-linear mirror consisting of a lithium triborate crystal and a dichroic output coupler are used to mode-lock (passively) an Nd : YVO4 laser, pumped by a diode laser array. The laser can operate both in cw mode-locked and simultaneously Q-switched and mode-locked (QML) regime. The peak power of the laser while ...

  19. Diode array pumped, non-linear mirror Q-switched and mode-locked ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A non-linear mirror consisting of a lithium triborate crystal and a dichroic ... effects such as all-optical switching [7,8], nearly degenerate four-wave mixing [9,10], .... is driven by a radio frequency signal of 27.2MHz with a modulation available in.

  20. Global dynamics for switching systems and their extensions by linear differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttinga, Zane; Cummins, Bree; Gedeon, Tomáš; Mischaikow, Konstantin

    2018-03-01

    Switching systems use piecewise constant nonlinearities to model gene regulatory networks. This choice provides advantages in the analysis of behavior and allows the global description of dynamics in terms of Morse graphs associated to nodes of a parameter graph. The parameter graph captures spatial characteristics of a decomposition of parameter space into domains with identical Morse graphs. However, there are many cellular processes that do not exhibit threshold-like behavior and thus are not well described by a switching system. We consider a class of extensions of switching systems formed by a mixture of switching interactions and chains of variables governed by linear differential equations. We show that the parameter graphs associated to the switching system and any of its extensions are identical. For each parameter graph node, there is an order-preserving map from the Morse graph of the switching system to the Morse graph of any of its extensions. We provide counterexamples that show why possible stronger relationships between the Morse graphs are not valid.

  1. Global dynamics for switching systems and their extensions by linear differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttinga, Zane; Cummins, Bree; Gedeon, Tomáš; Mischaikow, Konstantin

    2018-03-15

    Switching systems use piecewise constant nonlinearities to model gene regulatory networks. This choice provides advantages in the analysis of behavior and allows the global description of dynamics in terms of Morse graphs associated to nodes of a parameter graph. The parameter graph captures spatial characteristics of a decomposition of parameter space into domains with identical Morse graphs. However, there are many cellular processes that do not exhibit threshold-like behavior and thus are not well described by a switching system. We consider a class of extensions of switching systems formed by a mixture of switching interactions and chains of variables governed by linear differential equations. We show that the parameter graphs associated to the switching system and any of its extensions are identical. For each parameter graph node, there is an order-preserving map from the Morse graph of the switching system to the Morse graph of any of its extensions. We provide counterexamples that show why possible stronger relationships between the Morse graphs are not valid.

  2. Linear population allocation by bistable switches in response to transient stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srimani, Jaydeep K; Yao, Guang; Neu, John; Tanouchi, Yu; Lee, Tae Jun; You, Lingchong

    2014-01-01

    Many cellular decision processes, including proliferation, differentiation, and phenotypic switching, are controlled by bistable signaling networks. In response to transient or intermediate input signals, these networks allocate a population fraction to each of two distinct states (e.g. OFF and ON). While extensive studies have been carried out to analyze various bistable networks, they are primarily focused on responses of bistable networks to sustained input signals. In this work, we investigate the response characteristics of bistable networks to transient signals, using both theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. We find that bistable systems exhibit a common property: for input signals with short durations, the fraction of switching cells increases linearly with the signal duration, allowing the population to integrate transient signals to tune its response. We propose that this allocation algorithm can be an optimal response strategy for certain cellular decisions in which excessive switching results in lower population fitness.

  3. Design and analysis of a transversal-flux switched-reluctance-linear-machine pole-pair

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salo, J

    1999-07-01

    The Switched Reluctance technology is probably best suited for industrial low-speed or zerospeed applications where the power can be small but the torque or the force in linear movement cases might be relatively high. Because of its simple structure the Sit-motor is an interesting alternative for low power applications where pneumatic or hydraulic linear drives are to be avoided. This study analyses the basic parts of an LSR-motor which are the two mover poles and one stator pole and which form the 'basic pole pair' in linear-movement transversal-flux switched-reluctance motors. The static properties of the basic pole pair are modelled and the basic design rules are derived. The models developed are validated with experiments. A one-sided one-polepair transversal-flux switched-reluctance-linear-motor prototype is demonstrated and its static properties are measured. The modelling of the static properties is performed with FEM-calculations. Two-dimensional models are accurate enough to model the static key features for the basic dimensioning of LSRmotors. Three-dimensional models must be used in order to get the most accurate calculation results of the static traction force production. The developed dimensioning and modelling methods, which could be systematically validated by laboratory measurements, are the most significant contributions of this thesis. (orig.)

  4. Design and analysis of a transversal-flux switched-reluctance-linear-machine pole-pair

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salo, J.

    1999-07-01

    The Switched Reluctance technology is probably best suited for industrial low-speed or zerospeed applications where the power can be small but the torque or the force in linear movement cases might be relatively high. Because of its simple structure the Sit-motor is an interesting alternative for low power applications where pneumatic or hydraulic linear drives are to be avoided. This study analyses the basic parts of an LSR-motor which are the two mover poles and one stator pole and which form the 'basic pole pair' in linear-movement transversal-flux switched-reluctance motors. The static properties of the basic pole pair are modelled and the basic design rules are derived. The models developed are validated with experiments. A one-sided one-polepair transversal-flux switched-reluctance-linear-motor prototype is demonstrated and its static properties are measured. The modelling of the static properties is performed with FEM-calculations. Two-dimensional models are accurate enough to model the static key features for the basic dimensioning of LSRmotors. Three-dimensional models must be used in order to get the most accurate calculation results of the static traction force production. The developed dimensioning and modelling methods, which could be systematically validated by laboratory measurements, are the most significant contributions of this thesis. (orig.)

  5. Linear switched reluctance motor control with PIC18F452 microcontroller

    OpenAIRE

    DURSUN, Mahir; KOÇ, Fatmagül

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the simulation, control, and experimental results of the velocity of a double-sided, 6/4-poled, 3-phased, 8 A, 24 V, 250 W, and 250 N pull force linear switched reluctance motor (LSRM). In the simulation and experimental study, the reference velocity is constant depending on the position and time. The velocity versus the position of the translator was controlled with fuzzy logic control (FLC) and proportional-integral (PI) control techniques. The motor was control...

  6. Force Profiles of a Linear Switched Reluctance Motor Having Special Pole Face Shapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHADRESEKAR, V.

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the results of a finite element analysis are carried out on an new stator geometry of a three phase longitudinal flux Linear Switched Reluctance Motor (LSRM. In the new geometry, pole shoes are affixed to the stator poles. Static and dynamic characteristics for the proposed structure have been highlighted. Motor performance for variable load conditions is discussed. Frequency spectrum analyses of force profile using the fast Fourier transform (FFT are described to predict the vibration frequencies. The 2-Dimensional (2-D finite element analysis (FEA and the experimental results of this paper prove that LSRMs are one of the strong candidates for linear propulsion drives.

  7. Electrode erosion properties of gas spark switches for fast linear transformer drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoang; Pei, Zhehao; Zhang, Yuzhao; Liu, Xuandong; Li, Yongdong; Zhang, Qiaogen

    2017-12-01

    Fast linear transformer drivers (FLTDs) are a popular and potential route for high-power devices employing multiple "bricks" in series and parallel, but they put extremely stringent demands on gas switches. Electrode erosion of FLTD gas switches is a restrictive and unavoidable factor that degrades performance and limits stability. In this paper, we systematically investigated the electrode erosion characteristics of a three-electrode field distortion gas switch under the typical working conditions of FLTD switches, and the discharge current was 7-46 kA with 46-300 ns rise time. A high speed frame camera and a spectrograph were used to capture the expansion process and the spectral emission of the spark channel was used to estimate the current density and the spark temperature, and then the energy fluxes and the external forces on the electrode surface were calculated. A tens of kilo-ampere nanosecond pulse could generate a 1011 W/m2 energy flux injection and 1.3-3.5 MPa external pressure on the electrode surface, resulting in a millimeter-sized erosion crater with the maximum peak height Rz reaching 100 μm magnitude. According to the morphological images by a laser scanning confocal microscope, the erosion crater of a FLTD switch contained three kinds of local morphologies, namely a center boiling region, an overflow region and a sputtering region. In addition, the crater size, the surface roughness, and the mass loss were highly dependent on the current amplitude and the transferred charge. We also observed Morphology Type I and Type II, respectively, with different pulse parameters, which had an obvious influence on surface roughness and mass loss. Finally, the quantitative relationship between the electrode mass loss and the pulse parameter was clarified. The transferred charge and the current amplitude were proved to be the main factors determining the electrode mass loss of a FLTD switch, and a least squares fitting expression for mass loss was also obtained.

  8. A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model

    OpenAIRE

    Mark W. French

    2005-01-01

    The cycle in output and hours worked is not symmetric: it behaves differently around recessions than in expansions. Similarly, the trend in multifactor productivity (MFP) seems to pass through different regimes; there was an extended period of slow MFP growth from about 1973 through 1995, and faster growth thereafter. Typical linear models and linear filters such as the Kalman filter deal poorly with asymmetry and regime changes. This paper attempts to determine more accurately and quickly an...

  9. Global Uniform Asymptotic Stability of a Class of Switched Linear Systems with an Infinite Number of Subsystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. F. Araghi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stability of switching systems with an infinite number of subsystems is important in some structure of systems, like fuzzy systems, neural networks, and so forth. Because of the relationship between stability of a set of matrices and switching systems, this paper first studies the stability of a set of matrices, then and the results are applied for stability of switching systems. Some new conditions for globally uniformly asymptotically stability (GUAS of discrete-time switched linear systems with an infinite number of subsystems are proposed. The paper considers some examples and simulation results.

  10. A new double sided linear switched reluctance motor with low cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daldaban, Ferhat; Ustkoyuncu, Nurettin

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the realization and design of a new linear switched reluctance motor (LSRM) structure. The new model has double sided configuration and provides high force for many applications with low cost. The characteristics of the LSRM are obtained by using finite element analysis (FEA) and analytical calculations. The results of the FEA and analytical calculations are presented, and compared with experimental results. A high correlation between experimental and analytical results is obtained, which has been demonstrated in the form of inductance versus position versus current

  11. Design of Filter for a Class of Switched Linear Neutral Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyun Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the filtering problem for a class of switched linear neutral systems with time-varying delays. The time-varying delays appear not only in the state but also in the state derivatives. Based on the average dwell time approach and the piecewise Lyapunov functional technique, sufficient conditions are proposed for the exponential stability of the filtering error dynamic system. Then, the corresponding solvability condition for a desired filter satisfying a weighted performance is established. All the conditions obtained are delay-dependent. Finally, two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed theory.

  12. Markov Tail Chains

    OpenAIRE

    janssen, Anja; Segers, Johan

    2013-01-01

    The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regularly varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper we extend this fact to Markov chains with multivariate regularly varying marginal distributions in Rd. We analyze both the forward and the backward tail process and show that they mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint relation. In ...

  13. Distributed Leader-Following Finite-Time Consensus Control for Linear Multiagent Systems under Switching Topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaole; Chen, Shengyong

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the finite-time consensus problem of leader-following multiagent systems. The dynamical models for all following agents and the leader are assumed the same general form of linear system, and the interconnection topology among the agents is assumed to be switching and undirected. We mostly consider the continuous-time case. By assuming that the states of neighbouring agents are known to each agent, a sufficient condition is established for finite-time consensus via a neighbor-based state feedback protocol. While the states of neighbouring agents cannot be available and only the outputs of neighbouring agents can be accessed, the distributed observer-based consensus protocol is proposed for each following agent. A sufficient condition is provided in terms of linear matrix inequalities to design the observer-based consensus protocol, which makes the multiagent systems achieve finite-time consensus under switching topologies. Then, we discuss the counterparts for discrete-time case. Finally, we provide an illustrative example to show the effectiveness of the design approach. PMID:24883367

  14. Generation Method of Multipiecewise Linear Chaotic Systems Based on the Heteroclinic Shil’nikov Theorem and Switching Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunyan Han

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the heteroclinic Shil’nikov theorem and switching control, a kind of multipiecewise linear chaotic system is constructed in this paper. Firstly, two fundamental linear systems are constructed via linearization of a chaotic system at its two equilibrium points. Secondly, a two-piecewise linear chaotic system which satisfies the Shil’nikov theorem is generated by constructing heteroclinic loop between equilibrium points of the two fundamental systems by switching control. Finally, another multipiecewise linear chaotic system that also satisfies the Shil’nikov theorem is obtained via alternate translation of the two fundamental linear systems and heteroclinic loop construction of adjacent equilibria for the multipiecewise linear system. Some basic dynamical characteristics, including divergence, Lyapunov exponents, and bifurcation diagrams of the constructed systems, are analyzed. Meanwhile, computer simulation and circuit design are used for the proposed chaotic systems, and they are demonstrated to be effective for the method of chaos anticontrol.

  15. Asynchronous L1-gain control of uncertain switched positive linear systems with dwell time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Zhang, Hongbin

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, dwell time (DT) stability, L 1 -gain performance analysis and asynchronous L 1 -gain controller design problems of uncertain switched positive linear systems (SPLSs) are investigated. Via a time-scheduled multiple linear co-positive Lyapunov function (TSMLCLF) approach, convex sufficient conditions of DT stability and L 1 -gain performance of SPLSs with interval and polytopic uncertainties are presented. Furthermore, by utilizing the feature that the TSMLCLF keeps decreasing even if the controller is running asynchronously with the system, the asynchronous L 1 -gain controller design problem of SPLSs with interval and polytopic uncertainties is investigated. Convex sufficient conditions of the existence of time-varying asynchronous state-feedback controller which can ensure the closed-loop system's positivity, stability and L 1 -gain performance are established, and the controller gain matrices can be calculated instantaneously online. The obtained L 1 -gain in the paper is standard. All the results are presented in terms of linear programming. A practical example is provided to show the effectiveness of the results. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Kirkwood, James R

    2015-01-01

    Review of ProbabilityShort HistoryReview of Basic Probability DefinitionsSome Common Probability DistributionsProperties of a Probability DistributionProperties of the Expected ValueExpected Value of a Random Variable with Common DistributionsGenerating FunctionsMoment Generating FunctionsExercisesDiscrete-Time, Finite-State Markov ChainsIntroductionNotationTransition MatricesDirected Graphs: Examples of Markov ChainsRandom Walk with Reflecting BoundariesGambler’s RuinEhrenfest ModelCentral Problem of Markov ChainsCondition to Ensure a Unique Equilibrium StateFinding the Equilibrium StateTransient and Recurrent StatesIndicator FunctionsPerron-Frobenius TheoremAbsorbing Markov ChainsMean First Passage TimeMean Recurrence Time and the Equilibrium StateFundamental Matrix for Regular Markov ChainsDividing a Markov Chain into Equivalence ClassesPeriodic Markov ChainsReducible Markov ChainsSummaryExercisesDiscrete-Time, Infinite-State Markov ChainsRenewal ProcessesDelayed Renewal ProcessesEquilibrium State f...

  17. Cosine bend-linear waveguide digital optical switch with parabolic heater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yulianti, Ian; Supa'at, Abu Sahmah Mohd.; Idrus, Sevia M.; Al-hetar, Abdulaziz M.

    2010-02-01

    A new digital optical switch (DOS) with large branching angle and short device length that exhibits low crosstalk and low power consumption is demonstrated. The Y-branch shape was optimized by introducing constant effective refractive index difference between branches (Δ N eff) along the propagation direction through beam propagation method (BPM) scheme. To provide decreasing local branching angle that results in the improvement of the crosstalk, two modified cosine bend was introduced to form the Y-branch. The modified cosine branch was then connected to a linear branch. The heater electrode was optimized so that the temperature fields induce a constant Δ N eff to satisfy initial assumption in designing the Y-branch shape. With branching angle of 0.299° and device length of only 5 mm, the simulation shows that the device could exhibits crosstalk of -33 dB at calculated required power of only 26 mW.

  18. Optical fibres sensor based in the intensity switch of a linear laser with two Bragg gratings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basurto P, M.A.; Kuzin, E.A.; Archundia B, C.; Marroquin, E.; May A, M.; Cerecedo N, H.H.; Sanchez M, J.J.; Tentori S, D.; Marquez B, I.; Shliagin, M.; Miridonov, S.

    2000-01-01

    In this work we propose a new configuration for an optical fiber temperature sensor, based on a linear type Er-doped fiber laser. The laser cavity consists of an Er-doped fiber and two identical Bragg gratings at the fiber ends (working as reflectors). Temperature changes are detected by measuring, through one of the gratings, the intensity variations at the system's output. When the temperature of one of the Bragg gratings is modified, a wavelength shift of its spectral reflectivity is observed. Hence, the laser emission intensity of the system is modified. We present experimental results of the intensity switch observed when the temperature difference between the gratings detunes their spectral reflectance. Making use of this effect it is possible to develop limit comparators to bound the temperature range for the object under supervision. This limiting work can be performed with a high sensitivity using a very simple interrogation procedure. (Author)

  19. A novel single-phase flux-switching permanent magnet linear generator used for free-piston Stirling engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Ping; Sui, Yi; Tong, Chengde; Bai, Jingang; Yu, Bin; Lin, Fei

    2014-05-01

    This paper investigates a novel single-phase flux-switching permanent-magnet (PM) linear machine used for free-piston Stirling engines. The machine topology and operating principle are studied. A flux-switching PM linear machine is designed based on the quasi-sinusoidal speed characteristic of the resonant piston. Considering the performance of back electromotive force and thrust capability, some leading structural parameters, including the air gap length, the PM thickness, the ratio of the outer radius of mover to that of stator, the mover tooth width, the stator tooth width, etc., are optimized by finite element analysis. Compared with conventional three-phase moving-magnet linear machine, the proposed single-phase flux-switching topology shows advantages in less PM use, lighter mover, and higher volume power density.

  20. Markov Chains and Markov Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Ogunbayo, Segun

    2016-01-01

    Markov chain, which was named after Andrew Markov is a mathematical system that transfers a state to another state. Many real world systems contain uncertainty. This study helps us to understand the basic idea of a Markov chain and how is been useful in our daily lives. For some times there had been suspense on distinct predictions and future existences. Also in different games there had been different expectations or results involved. That is the reason why we need Markov chains to predict o...

  1. Numerical Modal Analysis of Vibrations in a Three-Phase Linear Switched Reluctance Actuator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Salvado

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of vibrations produced by switched reluctance actuators, focusing on the linear configuration of this type of machines, aiming at its characterization regarding the structural vibrations. The complexity of the mechanical system and the number of parts used put serious restrictions on the effectiveness of analytical approaches. We build the 3D model of the actuator and use finite element method (FEM to find its natural frequencies. The focus is on frequencies within the range up to nearly 1.2 kHz which is considered relevant, based on preliminary simulations and experiments. Spectral analysis results of audio signals from experimental modal excitation are also shown and discussed. The obtained data support the characterization of the linear actuator regarding the excited modes, its vibration frequencies, and mode shapes, with high potential of excitation due to the regular operation regimes of the machine. The results reveal abundant modes and harmonics and the symmetry characteristics of the actuator, showing that the vibration modes can be excited for different configurations of the actuator. The identification of the most critical modes is of great significance for the actuator’s control strategies. This analysis also provides significant information to adopt solutions to reduce the vibrations at the design.

  2. Complimentary Force Allocation Control for a Dual-Mover Linear Switched Reluctance Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. Pan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper inspects the complementary force allocation control schemes for an integrated, dual-mover linear switched reluctance machine (LSRM. The performance of the total force is realized by the coordination of the two movers. First, the structure and characteristics of the LSRM are investigated. Then, a complimentary force allocation control scheme for the two movers is proposed. Next, three force allocation methods—constant proportion, constant proportion with a saturation interval and error compensation, and the variable proportion allocation strategies—are proposed and analyzed, respectively. Experimental results demonstrate that the complimentary force interaction between the two movers can effectively reduce the total amount of force ripples from each method. The results under the variable proportion method also show that dynamic error values falling into 0.044 mm and −0.04 mm under the unit ramp force reference can be achieved. With the sinusoidal force reference with an amplitude of 60 N and a frequency of 0.5 Hz, a dynamic force control precision of 0.062 N and 0.091 N can also be obtained.

  3. Automatic Human Movement Assessment With Switching Linear Dynamic System: Motion Segmentation and Motor Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza Baptista, Roberto; Bo, Antonio P L; Hayashibe, Mitsuhiro

    2017-06-01

    Performance assessment of human movement is critical in diagnosis and motor-control rehabilitation. Recent developments in portable sensor technology enable clinicians to measure spatiotemporal aspects to aid in the neurological assessment. However, the extraction of quantitative information from such measurements is usually done manually through visual inspection. This paper presents a novel framework for automatic human movement assessment that executes segmentation and motor performance parameter extraction in time-series of measurements from a sequence of human movements. We use the elements of a Switching Linear Dynamic System model as building blocks to translate formal definitions and procedures from human movement analysis. Our approach provides a method for users with no expertise in signal processing to create models for movements using labeled dataset and later use it for automatic assessment. We validated our framework on preliminary tests involving six healthy adult subjects that executed common movements in functional tests and rehabilitation exercise sessions, such as sit-to-stand and lateral elevation of the arms and five elderly subjects, two of which with limited mobility, that executed the sit-to-stand movement. The proposed method worked on random motion sequences for the dual purpose of movement segmentation (accuracy of 72%-100%) and motor performance assessment (mean error of 0%-12%).

  4. Thresholds, switches and hysteresis in hydrology from the pedon to the catchment scale: a non-linear systems theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Hysteresis is a rate-independent non-linearity that is expressed through thresholds, switches, and branches. Exceedance of a threshold, or the occurrence of a turning point in the input, switches the output onto a particular output branch. Rate-independent branching on a very large set of switches with non-local memory is the central concept in the new definition of hysteresis. Hysteretic loops are a special case. A self-consistent mathematical description of hydrological systems with hysteresis demands a new non-linear systems theory of adequate generality. The goal of this paper is to establish this and to show how this may be done. Two results are presented: a conceptual model for the hysteretic soil-moisture characteristic at the pedon scale and a hysteretic linear reservoir at the catchment scale. Both are based on the Preisach model. A result of particular significance is the demonstration that the independent domain model of the soil moisture characteristic due to Childs, Poulavassilis, Mualem and others, is equivalent to the Preisach hysteresis model of non-linear systems theory, a result reminiscent of the reduction of the theory of the unit hydrograph to linear systems theory in the 1950s. A significant reduction in the number of model parameters is also achieved. The new theory implies a change in modelling paradigm.

  5. Markov set-chains

    CERN Document Server

    Hartfiel, Darald J

    1998-01-01

    In this study extending classical Markov chain theory to handle fluctuating transition matrices, the author develops a theory of Markov set-chains and provides numerous examples showing how that theory can be applied. Chapters are concluded with a discussion of related research. Readers who can benefit from this monograph are those interested in, or involved with, systems whose data is imprecise or that fluctuate with time. A background equivalent to a course in linear algebra and one in probability theory should be sufficient.

  6. A linear 180 nm SOI CMOS antenna switch module using integrated passive device filters for cellular applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jie, Cui; Lei, Chen; Peng, Zhao; Xu, Niu; Yi, Liu

    2014-06-01

    A broadband monolithic linear single pole, eight throw (SP8T) switch has been fabricated in 180 nm thin film silicon-on-insulator (SOI) CMOS technology with a quad-band GSM harmonic filter in integrated passive devices (IPD) technology, which is developed for cellular applications. The antenna switch module (ASM) features 1.2 dB insertion loss with filter on 2G bands and 0.4 dB insertion loss in 3G bands, less than -45 dB isolation and maximum -103 dB intermodulation distortion for mobile front ends by applying distributed architecture and adaptive supply voltage generator.

  7. A linear 180 nm SOI CMOS antenna switch module using integrated passive device filters for cellular applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui Jie; Chen Lei; Liu Yi; Zhao Peng; Niu Xu

    2014-01-01

    A broadband monolithic linear single pole, eight throw (SP8T) switch has been fabricated in 180 nm thin film silicon-on-insulator (SOI) CMOS technology with a quad-band GSM harmonic filter in integrated passive devices (IPD) technology, which is developed for cellular applications. The antenna switch module (ASM) features 1.2 dB insertion loss with filter on 2G bands and 0.4 dB insertion loss in 3G bands, less than −45 dB isolation and maximum −103 dB intermodulation distortion for mobile front ends by applying distributed architecture and adaptive supply voltage generator. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  8. Investigation of switch designs for the dynamic load current multiplier scheme on the SPHYNX microsecond linear transformer driver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maysonnave, T.; Bayol, F.; Demol, G.; Almeida, T. d'; Lassalle, F.; Morell, A.; Grunenwald, J.; Chuvatin, A.S.; Pecastaing, L.; De Ferron, A.S.

    2014-01-01

    SPHINX is a microsecond linear transformer driver LTD, used essentially for implosion of Z-pinch loads in direct drive mode. It can deliver a 6-MA current pulse within 800 ns into a Z-pinch load. The dynamic load current multiplier concept enables the current pulse to be modified by increasing its amplitude while reducing its rise time before being delivered to the load. This compact system is made up of concentric electrodes (auto transformer), a dynamic flux extruder (cylindrical wire array), a vacuum convolute (eight post-holes), and a vacuum closing switch, which is the key component of the system. Several different schemes are investigated for designing a vacuum switch suitable for operating the dynamic load current multiplier on the SPHINX generator for various applications, including isentropic compression experiments and Z-pinch radiation effects studies. In particular, the design of a compact vacuum surface switch and a multichannel vacuum switch, located upstream of the load are studied. Electrostatic simulations supporting the switch designs are presented along with test bed experiments. Initial results from shots on the SPHINX driver are also presented. (authors)

  9. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, T D [Center for the Ecological Study of Perception and Action, Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut, 406 Babbidge Road, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States)

    2008-07-18

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  10. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T D

    2008-01-01

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  11. Free microparticles—An inducing mechanism of pre-firing in high pressure gas switches for fast linear transformer drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoang; Pei, Zhehao; Wu, Zhicheng; Zhang, Yuzhao; Liu, Xuandong; Li, Yongdong; Zhang, Qiaogen

    2018-03-01

    Microparticle initiated pre-firing of high pressure gas switches for fast linear transformer drivers (FLTDs) is experimentally and theoretically verified. First, a dual-electrode gas switch equipped with poly-methyl methacrylate baffles is used to capture and collect the microparticles. By analyzing the electrode surfaces and the collecting baffles by a laser scanning confocal microscope, microparticles ranging in size from tens of micrometers to over 100 μm are observed under the typical working conditions of FLTDs. The charging and movement of free microparticles in switch cavity are studied, and the strong DC electric field drives the microparticles to bounce off the electrode. Three different modes of free microparticle motion appear to be responsible for switch pre-firing. (i) Microparticles adhere to the electrode surface and act as a fixed protrusion which distorts the local electric field and initiates the breakdown in the gap. (ii) One particle escapes toward the opposite electrode and causes a near-electrode microdischarge, inducing the breakdown of the residual gap. (iii) Multiple moving microparticles are occasionally in cascade, leading to pre-firing. Finally, as experimental verification, repetitive discharges at ±90 kV are conducted in a three-electrode field-distortion gas switch, with two 8 mm gaps and pressurized with nitrogen. An ultrasonic probe is employed to monitor the bounce signals. In pre-firing incidents, the bounce is detected shortly before the collapse of the voltage waveform, which demonstrates that free microparticles contribute significantly to the mechanism that induces pre-firing in FLTD gas switches.

  12. WE-DE-BRA-08: A Linear Accelerator Target Allowing Rapid Switching Between Treatment and High-Contrast Imaging Modes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yewondwossen, M; Robar, J; Parsons, D [Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: During radiotherapy treatment, lung tumors can display substantial respiratory motion. This motion usually necessitates enlarged treatment margins to provide full tumour coverage. Unfortunately, these margins limit the dose that can be prescribed for tumour control and cause complications to normal tissue. Options for real-time methods of direct detection of tumour position, and particularly those that obviate the need for inserted fiducial markers, are limited. We propose a method of tumor tracking without implanted fiducial markers using a novel fast switching-target that toggles between a FFF copper/tungsten therapy mode and a FFF low-Z target mode for imaging. In this work we demonstrate proof-of-concept of this new technology. Methods: The prototype includes two targets: i) a FFF copper/tungsten target equivalent to that in the Varian 2100 EX 6 MV, and ii) a low-Z (carbon) target with a thickness of 110% of continuous slowing down approximation range (CSDA) at 7 MeV. The two targets can be exchanged with a custom made linear slide and motor-driven actuator. The usefulness of the switching-target concept is demonstrated through experimental BEV Planar images acquired with continual treatment and imaging at a user-defined period. Results: The prototype switching-target demonstrates that two recent advances in linac technology (FFF target for therapy and low-Z target) can be combined with synergy. The switching-target approach offers the capacity for rapid switching between treatment and high-contrast imaging modes, allowing intrafractional tracking, as demonstrated in this work with dynamic breathing phantom. By using a single beam-line, the design is streamlined and may obviate the need for an auxiliary imaging system (e.g., kV OBI.) Conclusion: This switching-target approach is a feasible combination of two current advances in linac technology (FFF target for therapy and a FFF low-Z target) allowing new options in on-line IGRT.

  13. Free microparticles-An inducing mechanism of pre-firing in high pressure gas switches for fast linear transformer drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoang; Pei, Zhehao; Wu, Zhicheng; Zhang, Yuzhao; Liu, Xuandong; Li, Yongdong; Zhang, Qiaogen

    2018-03-01

    Microparticle initiated pre-firing of high pressure gas switches for fast linear transformer drivers (FLTDs) is experimentally and theoretically verified. First, a dual-electrode gas switch equipped with poly-methyl methacrylate baffles is used to capture and collect the microparticles. By analyzing the electrode surfaces and the collecting baffles by a laser scanning confocal microscope, microparticles ranging in size from tens of micrometers to over 100 μm are observed under the typical working conditions of FLTDs. The charging and movement of free microparticles in switch cavity are studied, and the strong DC electric field drives the microparticles to bounce off the electrode. Three different modes of free microparticle motion appear to be responsible for switch pre-firing. (i) Microparticles adhere to the electrode surface and act as a fixed protrusion which distorts the local electric field and initiates the breakdown in the gap. (ii) One particle escapes toward the opposite electrode and causes a near-electrode microdischarge, inducing the breakdown of the residual gap. (iii) Multiple moving microparticles are occasionally in cascade, leading to pre-firing. Finally, as experimental verification, repetitive discharges at ±90 kV are conducted in a three-electrode field-distortion gas switch, with two 8 mm gaps and pressurized with nitrogen. An ultrasonic probe is employed to monitor the bounce signals. In pre-firing incidents, the bounce is detected shortly before the collapse of the voltage waveform, which demonstrates that free microparticles contribute significantly to the mechanism that induces pre-firing in FLTD gas switches.

  14. Spontaneous Symmetric Breaking Mechanism in the Evolution of Strategic Alliance Based on Markov Switching Model%基于马尔科夫状态转换的战略联盟自发性对称破缺机制

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋波; 徐飞

    2013-01-01

    This paper focused on the spontaneous symmetry breaking in the evolution of strategic alliance, from systematic perspective, viewed strategic alliance as a complex social economic system, from time, space, material, information and energy five dimensions. And the Markov random model was introduced into the study on the status switching of strategic alliance, and then the spontaneous symmetric breaking mechanism of strategic alliance was illustrated based on the Markov switching model, in order to predict the equilibrium status of strategic alliance. This paper provides a new theory perspective for the research on the stability and evolution of strategic alliance.%针对企业战略联盟演变过程中的自发性对称破缺现象,以系统观的视角,将战略联盟视作一个复杂社会经济系统,从时间、空间、物质、信息和能量5个维度描述战略联盟系统的状态,并将马尔科夫过程的状态随机转换模型引入战略联盟状态迁移的研究,深入阐述联盟自发性对称破缺机制,从而预测联盟的平衡状态,为战略联盟演变及稳定性的研究提供了新的理论视角.

  15. A high peak power S-band switching system for the Advanced Photon Source (APS) Linear Accelerator (Linac)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grelick, A. E.

    1998-01-01

    An S-band linear accelerator is the source of particles and front end of the Advanced Photon Source [1] injector. Additionally, it will be used to support a low-energy undulator test line (LEUTL) and to drive a free-electron laser (FEL). To provide maximum linac availability for all uses, an additional modulator-klystron subsystem has been built,and a waveguide-switching and distribution subsystem is now under construction. The combined subsystems provide a hot spare for any of the five S-band transmitters that power the lina cand have been given the additional function of powering an rf gun test stand whenever they are not otherwise needed. Design considerations for the waveguide-switching subsystem, topology selection, timing, control, and system protection provisions are described

  16. Validation Techniques of network harmonic models based on switching of a series linear component and measuring resultant harmonic increments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiechowski, Wojciech Tomasz; Lykkegaard, Jan; Bak, Claus Leth

    2007-01-01

    In this paper two methods of validation of transmission network harmonic models are introduced. The methods were developed as a result of the work presented in [1]. The first method allows calculating the transfer harmonic impedance between two nodes of a network. Switching a linear, series network......, as for example a transmission line. Both methods require that harmonic measurements performed at two ends of the disconnected element are precisely synchronized....... are used for calculation of the transfer harmonic impedance between the nodes. The determined transfer harmonic impedance can be used to validate a computer model of the network. The second method is an extension of the fist one. It allows switching a series element that contains a shunt branch...

  17. The IGBT as an element of switch discharge with a linear mode use in capacitor discharge power converters

    CERN Document Server

    Cravero, J M

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents an unusual use of IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor) modules in capacitor discharge power supplies to achieve different current pulse shapes. The new power converters are described with an emphasis on the use of the IGBT as a discharge switch or in a linear mode. The difficulties involved in implementing IGBTs in these modes are analysed. IGBT voltage and gate commands are reviewed for these different modes and the control system that is necessary to regulate the magnet current is described. Finally, the future is envisaged with the new trends in this direction.

  18. Design and Analysis of a Linear Hybrid Excitation Flux-Switching Generator for Direct Drive Wave Energy Converters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Linear generators have the advantage of a simple structure of the secondary, which is suitable for the application of wave energy conversion. Based on the vernier hybrid machines (VHMs, widely used for direct drive wave energy converters, this paper proposes a novel hybrid excitation flux-switching generator (LHEFSG, which can effectively improve the performance of this kind of generators. DC hybrid excitation windings and multitooth structure were used in the proposed generator to increase the magnetic energy and overcome the disadvantages of easily irreversible demagnetization of VHMs. Firstly, the operation principle and structure of the proposed generator are introduced. Secondly, by using the finite element method, the no-load performance of the proposed generator is analyzed and composed with ones of conventional VHM. In addition, the on-load performance of the proposed generator is obtained by finite element analysis (FEA. A dislocation of pole alignments method is implemented to reduce the cogging force. Lastly, a prototype of the linear flux-switching generator is used to verify the correctness of FEA results. All the results validate that the proposed generator has better performance than its counterparts.

  19. Generating two simultaneously chaotic attractors with a switching piecewise-linear controller

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Zuohuan; Lue Jinhu; Chen Guanrong; Zhou Tianshou; Zhang Suochun

    2004-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that a piecewise-linear system can generate chaos under suitable conditions. This paper proposes a novel method for simultaneously creating two symmetrical chaotic attractor--an upper-attractor and a lower-attractor--in a 3D linear autonomous system. Basically dynamical behaviors of this new chaotic system are further investigated. Especially, the chaos formation mechanism is explored by analyzing the structure of fixed points and the system trajectories

  20. Investigation of a tubular dual-stator flux-switching permanent-magnet linear generator for free-piston energy converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Yi; Zheng, Ping; Tong, Chengde; Yu, Bin; Zhu, Shaohong; Zhu, Jianguo

    2015-05-01

    This paper describes a tubular dual-stator flux-switching permanent-magnet (PM) linear generator for free-piston energy converter. The operating principle, topology, and design considerations of the machine are investigated. Combining the motion characteristic of free-piston Stirling engine, a tubular dual-stator PM linear generator is designed by finite element method. Some major structural parameters, such as the outer and inner radii of the mover, PM thickness, mover tooth width, tooth width of the outer and inner stators, etc., are optimized to improve the machine performances like thrust capability and power density. In comparison with conventional single-stator PM machines like moving-magnet linear machine and flux-switching linear machine, the proposed dual-stator flux-switching PM machine shows advantages in higher mass power density, higher volume power density, and lighter mover.

  1. A new amplifier for improving piezoelectric actuator linearity based on current switching in precision positioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ru, Changhai; Chen, Liguo; Shao, Bing; Rong, Weibin; Sun, Lining

    2008-01-01

    Piezoelectric actuators have traditionally been driven by voltage amplifiers. When driven at large voltages these actuators exhibit a significant amount of distortion, known as hysteresis, which may reduce the stability robustness of the system in feedback control applications. Piezoelectric transducers are known to exhibit less hysteresis when driven with current or charge rather than voltage. Despite this advantage, such methods have found little practical application due to the poor low frequency response of present current and charge driver designs. In this paper, a new piezoelectric amplifier based on current switching is presented which can reduce hysteresis. Special circuits and a hybrid control algorithm realize quick and precise positioning. Experimental results demonstrate that the amplifier can be used for dynamic and static applications and low frequency bandwidths can also be achieved

  2. Markov processes and controlled Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Filar, Jerzy; Chen, Anyue

    2002-01-01

    The general theory of stochastic processes and the more specialized theory of Markov processes evolved enormously in the second half of the last century. In parallel, the theory of controlled Markov chains (or Markov decision processes) was being pioneered by control engineers and operations researchers. Researchers in Markov processes and controlled Markov chains have been, for a long time, aware of the synergies between these two subject areas. However, this may be the first volume dedicated to highlighting these synergies and, almost certainly, it is the first volume that emphasizes the contributions of the vibrant and growing Chinese school of probability. The chapters that appear in this book reflect both the maturity and the vitality of modern day Markov processes and controlled Markov chains. They also will provide an opportunity to trace the connections that have emerged between the work done by members of the Chinese school of probability and the work done by the European, US, Central and South Ameri...

  3. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas

    correctly and misspecified non-linear alternatives is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The chosen parametrization is obtained by real-life exchange rates. The test against ESTAR has low power against all alternatives whereas the proposed unit root test against a Markov Switching autoregressive......This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against...... model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics....

  4. Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heydari, Somayeh; Siddiqui, Afzal

    2010-01-01

    Energy prices are often highly volatile with unexpected spikes. Capturing these sudden spikes may lead to more informed decision-making in energy investments, such as valuing gas-fired power plants, than ignoring them. In this paper, non-linear regime-switching models and models with mean-reverting stochastic volatility are compared with ordinary linear models. The study is performed using UK electricity and natural gas daily spot prices and suggests that with the aim of valuing a gas-fired power plant with and without operational flexibility, non-linear models with stochastic volatility, specifically for logarithms of electricity prices, provide better out-of-sample forecasts than both linear models and regime-switching models.

  5. Detent Force Reduction of a C-Core Linear Flux-Switching Permanent Magnet Machine with Multiple Additional Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Du

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available C-core linear flux-switching permanent magnet (PM machines (LFSPMs are attracting more and more attention due to their advantages of simplicity and robustness of the secondary side, high power density and high torque density, in which both PMs and armature windings are housed in the primary side. The primary salient tooth wound with a concentrated winding consists of C-shaped iron core segments between which PMs are sandwiched and the magnetization directions of these PMs are adjacent and alternant in the horizontal direction. On the other hand, the secondary side is composed of a simple iron core with salient teeth so that it is very suitable for long stroke applications. However, the detent force of the C-core LFSPM machine is relatively high and the magnetic circuit is unbalanced due to the end effect. Thus, a new multiple additional tooth which consists of an active and a traditional passive additional tooth, is employed at each end side of the primary in this paper, so that the asymmetry due to end effect can be depressed and the detent force can be reduced by adjusting the passive additional tooth position. By using the finite element method, the characteristics and performances of the proposed machine are analyzed and verified.

  6. Augmented switching linear dynamical system model for gas concentration estimation with MOX sensors in an open sampling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lello, Enrico; Trincavelli, Marco; Bruyninckx, Herman; De Laet, Tinne

    2014-07-11

    In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian time series model approach for gas concentration estimation using Metal Oxide (MOX) sensors in Open Sampling System (OSS). Our approach focuses on the compensation of the slow response of MOX sensors, while concurrently solving the problem of estimating the gas concentration in OSS. The proposed Augmented Switching Linear System model allows to include all the sources of uncertainty arising at each step of the problem in a single coherent probabilistic formulation. In particular, the problem of detecting on-line the current sensor dynamical regime and estimating the underlying gas concentration under environmental disturbances and noisy measurements is formulated and solved as a statistical inference problem. Our model improves, with respect to the state of the art, where system modeling approaches have been already introduced, but only provided an indirect relative measures proportional to the gas concentration and the problem of modeling uncertainty was ignored. Our approach is validated experimentally and the performances in terms of speed of and quality of the gas concentration estimation are compared with the ones obtained using a photo-ionization detector.

  7. An intelligent sensor array distributed system for vibration analysis and acoustic noise characterization of a linear switched reluctance actuator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvado, José; Espírito-Santo, António; Calado, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a distributed system for analysis and monitoring (DSAM) of vibrations and acoustic noise, which consists of an array of intelligent modules, sensor modules, communication bus and a host PC acting as data center. The main advantages of the DSAM are its modularity, scalability, and flexibility for use of different type of sensors/transducers, with analog or digital outputs, and for signals of different nature. Its final cost is also significantly lower than other available commercial solutions. The system is reconfigurable, can operate either with synchronous or asynchronous modes, with programmable sampling frequencies, 8-bit or 12-bit resolution and a memory buffer of 15 kbyte. It allows real-time data-acquisition for signals of different nature, in applications that require a large number of sensors, thus it is suited for monitoring of vibrations in Linear Switched Reluctance Actuators (LSRAs). The acquired data allows the full characterization of the LSRA in terms of its response to vibrations of structural origins, and the vibrations and acoustic noise emitted under normal operation. The DSAM can also be used for electrical machine condition monitoring, machine fault diagnosis, structural characterization and monitoring, among other applications.

  8. An Intelligent Sensor Array Distributed System for Vibration Analysis and Acoustic Noise Characterization of a Linear Switched Reluctance Actuator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Calado

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a distributed system for analysis and monitoring (DSAM of vibrations and acoustic noise, which consists of an array of intelligent modules, sensor modules, communication bus and a host PC acting as data center. The main advantages of the DSAM are its modularity, scalability, and flexibility for use of different type of sensors/transducers, with analog or digital outputs, and for signals of different nature. Its final cost is also significantly lower than other available commercial solutions. The system is reconfigurable, can operate either with synchronous or asynchronous modes, with programmable sampling frequencies, 8-bit or 12-bit resolution and a memory buffer of 15 kbyte. It allows real-time data-acquisition for signals of different nature, in applications that require a large number of sensors, thus it is suited for monitoring of vibrations in Linear Switched Reluctance Actuators (LSRAs. The acquired data allows the full characterization of the LSRA in terms of its response to vibrations of structural origins, and the vibrations and acoustic noise emitted under normal operation. The DSAM can also be used for electrical machine condition monitoring, machine fault diagnosis, structural characterization and monitoring, among other applications.

  9. Development of high power X-band semiconductor microwave switch for pulse compression systems of future linear colliders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumihiko Tamura

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe concepts for high power semiconductor rf switches, designed to handle signals at X-band with power level near 100 MW. We describe an abstract design methodology and derive a general scaling law for these switches. We also present a design and experimental work of a switch operating at the TE_{01} mode in overmoded circular waveguides. The switch is composed of an array of tee junction elements that have a p-i-n diode array window in the third arm.

  10. Finite Markov processes and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Iosifescu, Marius

    2007-01-01

    A self-contained treatment of finite Markov chains and processes, this text covers both theory and applications. Author Marius Iosifescu, vice president of the Romanian Academy and director of its Center for Mathematical Statistics, begins with a review of relevant aspects of probability theory and linear algebra. Experienced readers may start with the second chapter, a treatment of fundamental concepts of homogeneous finite Markov chain theory that offers examples of applicable models.The text advances to studies of two basic types of homogeneous finite Markov chains: absorbing and ergodic ch

  11. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  12. Decisive Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Henda, Noomene Ben; Mayr, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In part...

  13. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com

    2017-01-15

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  14. A computational study of the effects of linear doping profile on the high-frequency and switching performances of hetero-material-gate CNTFETs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Wei; Li Na; Ren Yuzhou; Li Hao; Zheng Lifen; Li Jin; Jiang Junjie; Chen Xiaoping; Wang Kai; Xia Chunping

    2013-01-01

    The effects of linear doping profile near the source and drain contacts on the switching and high-frequency characteristics for conventional single-material-gate CNTFET (C-CNTFET) and hetero-material-gate CNTFET (HMG-CNTFET) have been theoretically investigated by using a quantum kinetic model. This model is based on two-dimensional non-equilibrium Green's functions (NEGF) solved self-consistently with Poisson's equations. The simulation results show that at a CNT channel length of 20 nm with chirality (7, 0), the intrinsic cutoff frequency of C-CNTFETs reaches up to a few THz. In addition, a comparison study has been performed between C-and HMG-CNTFETs. For the C-CNTFET, results reveal that a longer linear doping length can improve the cutoff frequency and switching speed. However, it has the reverse effect on on/off current ratios. To improve the on/off current ratios performance of CNTFETs and overcome short-channel effects (SCEs) in high-performance device applications, a novel CNTFET structure with a combination of an HMG and linear doping profile has been proposed. It is demonstrated that the HMG structure design with an optimized linear doping length has improved high-frequency and switching performances as compared to C-CNTFETs. The simulation study may be useful for understanding and optimizing high-performance of CNTFETs and assessing the reliability of CNTFETs for prospective applications. (semiconductor devices)

  15. Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

  16. A method for determining the non-existence of a common quadratic Lyapunov function for switched linear systems based on particle swarm optimisation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duarte-Mermoud, M.A.; Ordonez-Hurtado, R.H.; Zagalak, Petr

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 11 (2012), s. 2015-2029 ISSN 0020-7721 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP103/12/2431 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Switched linear systems * Lyapunov function * particle swarm optimization Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 1.305, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/AS/zagalak-0382169.pdf

  17. Semi-Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Grabski

    2014-01-01

    Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in System Reliability and Maintenance is a modern view of discrete state space and continuous time semi-Markov processes and their applications in reliability and maintenance. The book explains how to construct semi-Markov models and discusses the different reliability parameters and characteristics that can be obtained from those models. The book is a useful resource for mathematicians, engineering practitioners, and PhD and MSc students who want to understand the basic concepts and results of semi-Markov process theory. Clearly defines the properties and

  18. Fields From Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Jørn

    2005-01-01

    A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly.......A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly....

  19. One-pot synthesis of linear- and three-arm star-tetrablock quarterpolymers via sequential metal-free ring-opening polymerization using a "catalyst switch" strategy

    KAUST Repository

    Zhao, Junpeng; Pahovnik, David; Gnanou, Yves; Hadjichristidis, Nikolaos

    2014-01-01

    A "catalyst switch" strategy has been used to sequentially polymerize four different heterocyclic monomers. In the first step, epoxides (1,2-butylene oxide and ethylene oxide) were successively polymerized from a monohydroxy or trihydroxy initiator in the presence of a strong phosphazene base promoter (t-BuP4). Then, an excess of diphenyl phosphate (DPP) was introduced, followed by addition and polymerization of a cyclic carbonate (trimethylene carbonate) and a cyclic ester (δ-valerolactone or ε-caprolactone). DPP acted as both neutralizer of the phosphazenium alkoxide (polyether chain end) and activator of the cyclic carbonate/ester. Using this method, linear- and star-tetrablock quarterpolymers were prepared in one pot. This work is emphasizing the strength of the previously developed catalyst switch strategy for the facile metal-free synthesis of complex macromolecular architectures. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. One-pot synthesis of linear- and three-arm star-tetrablock quarterpolymers via sequential metal-free ring-opening polymerization using a "catalyst switch" strategy

    KAUST Repository

    Zhao, Junpeng

    2014-08-06

    A "catalyst switch" strategy has been used to sequentially polymerize four different heterocyclic monomers. In the first step, epoxides (1,2-butylene oxide and ethylene oxide) were successively polymerized from a monohydroxy or trihydroxy initiator in the presence of a strong phosphazene base promoter (t-BuP4). Then, an excess of diphenyl phosphate (DPP) was introduced, followed by addition and polymerization of a cyclic carbonate (trimethylene carbonate) and a cyclic ester (δ-valerolactone or ε-caprolactone). DPP acted as both neutralizer of the phosphazenium alkoxide (polyether chain end) and activator of the cyclic carbonate/ester. Using this method, linear- and star-tetrablock quarterpolymers were prepared in one pot. This work is emphasizing the strength of the previously developed catalyst switch strategy for the facile metal-free synthesis of complex macromolecular architectures. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Transformer-assisted PWM zero-voltage switching pole inverter with high output bandwidth applied to linear motor drives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Myrzik, J.M.A.; Duarte, J.L.; Haardt, de P.; Vissers, J.

    2002-01-01

    An application of the transformer-assisted PWM zero-voltage switching pole inverter (TRAP) is described in this paper. The TRAP is based on the auxiliary resonant commutated pole inverter (ARCP), but avoids its disadvantages. This paper describes the converter functionality and its applicability

  2. Quantum switching of π-electron rotations in a nonplanar chiral molecule by using linearly polarized UV laser pulses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mineo, Hirobumi; Yamaki, Masahiro; Teranishi, Yoshiaki; Hayashi, Michitoshi; Lin, Sheng Hsien; Fujimura, Yuichi

    2012-09-05

    Nonplanar chiral aromatic molecules are candidates for use as building blocks of multidimensional switching devices because the π electrons can generate ring currents with a variety of directions. We employed (P)-2,2'-biphenol because four patterns of π-electron rotations along the two phenol rings are possible and theoretically determine how quantum switching of the π-electron rotations can be realized. We found that each rotational pattern can be driven by a coherent excitation of two electronic states under two conditions: one is the symmetry of the electronic states and the other is their relative phase. On the basis of the results of quantum dynamics simulations, we propose a quantum control method for sequential switching among the four rotational patterns that can be performed by using ultrashort overlapped pump and dump pulses with properly selected relative phases and photon polarization directions. The results serve as a theoretical basis for the design of confined ultrafast switching of ring currents of nonplanar molecules and further current-induced magnetic fluxes of more sophisticated systems.

  3. Testing and Implementation Progress on the Advanced Photon Source (APS) Linear Accelerator (Linac) High-Power S-band Switching System

    OpenAIRE

    Grelick, A. E.; Arnold, N.; Berg, S.; Dohan, D.; Goeppner, G.; Kang, Y. W.; Nassiri, A.; Pasky, S.; Pile, G.; Smith, T.; Stein, S. J.

    2000-01-01

    An S-band linear accelerator is the source of particles and the front end of the Advanced Photon Source injector. In addition, it supports a low-energy undulator test line (LEUTL) and drives a free-electron laser (FEL). A waveguide-switching and distribution system is now under construction. The system configuration was revised to be consistent with the recent change to electron-only operation. There are now six modulator-klystron subsystems, two of which are being configured to act as hot sp...

  4. Modeling and Control of Switching Max-Plus-Linear Systems : Rescheduling of railway traffic and changing gaits in legged locomotion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kersbergen, B.

    2015-01-01

    The operation of many systems can be described by the timing of events. When the system behavior can be described by equations that are "linear'' in the max-plus algebra, which has maximization and addition as its basic operations, the system is called a max-plus-linear system. In many of these

  5. Representing Lumped Markov Chains by Minimal Polynomials over Field GF(q)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharov, V. M.; Shalagin, S. V.; Eminov, B. F.

    2018-05-01

    A method has been proposed to represent lumped Markov chains by minimal polynomials over a finite field. The accuracy of representing lumped stochastic matrices, the law of lumped Markov chains depends linearly on the minimum degree of polynomials over field GF(q). The method allows constructing the realizations of lumped Markov chains on linear shift registers with a pre-defined “linear complexity”.

  6. Unstable volatility functions: the break preserving local linear estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casas, Isabel; Gijbels, Irene

    The objective of this paper is to introduce the break preserving local linear (BPLL) estimator for the estimation of unstable volatility functions. Breaks in the structure of the conditional mean and/or the volatility functions are common in Finance. Markov switching models (Hamilton, 1989......) and threshold models (Lin and Terasvirta, 1994) are amongst the most popular models to describe the behaviour of data with structural breaks. The local linear (LL) estimator is not consistent at points where the volatility function has a break and it may even report negative values for finite samples...

  7. Phasic Triplet Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Yazid Boudaren, Mohamed; Monfrini, Emmanuel; Pieczynski, Wojciech; Aïssani, Amar

    2014-11-01

    Hidden Markov chains have been shown to be inadequate for data modeling under some complex conditions. In this work, we address the problem of statistical modeling of phenomena involving two heterogeneous system states. Such phenomena may arise in biology or communications, among other fields. Namely, we consider that a sequence of meaningful words is to be searched within a whole observation that also contains arbitrary one-by-one symbols. Moreover, a word may be interrupted at some site to be carried on later. Applying plain hidden Markov chains to such data, while ignoring their specificity, yields unsatisfactory results. The Phasic triplet Markov chain, proposed in this paper, overcomes this difficulty by means of an auxiliary underlying process in accordance with the triplet Markov chains theory. Related Bayesian restoration techniques and parameters estimation procedures according to the new model are then described. Finally, to assess the performance of the proposed model against the conventional hidden Markov chain model, experiments are conducted on synthetic and real data.

  8. Optimum Performances for Non-Linear Finite Elements Model of 8/6 Switched Reluctance Motor Based on Intelligent Routing Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chouaib Labiod

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents torque ripple reduction with speed control of 8/6 Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM by the determination of the optimal parameters of the turn on, turn off angles Theta_(on, Theta_(off, and the supply voltage using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO algorithm and steady state Genetic Algorithm (ssGA. With SRM model, there is difficulty in the control relapsed into highly non-linear static characteristics. For this, the Finite Elements Method (FEM has been used because it is a powerful tool to get a model closer to reality. The mechanism used in this kind of machine control consists of a speed controller in order to determine current reference which must be produced to get the desired speed, hence, hysteresis controller is used to compare current reference with current measured up to achieve switching signals needed in the inverter. Depending on this control, the intelligent routing algorithms get the fitness equation from torque ripple and speed response so as to give the optimal parameters for better results. Obtained results from the proposed strategy based on metaheuristic methods are compared with the basic case without considering the adjustment of specific parameters. Optimized results found clearly confirmed the ability and the efficiency of the proposed strategy based on metaheuristic methods in improving the performances of the SRM control considering different torque loads.

  9. Torque Ripple Reduction of a Novel Modular Arc-Linear Flux-Switching Permanent-Magnet Motor with Rotor Step Skewing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangdong Liu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A novel modular arc-linear flux-switching permanent-magnet motor (MAL-FSPM used for scanning system instead of reduction gearboxes and kinematic mechanisms is proposed and researched in this paper by the finite element method (FEM. The MAL-FSPM combines characteristics of flux-switching permanent-magnet motor and linear motor and can realize the direct driving and limited angular movement. Structure and operation principle of the MAL-FSPM are analyzed. Cogging torque model of the MAL-FSPM is established. The characteristics of cogging torque and torque ripple are investigated for: (1 distance (dend between left end of rotor and left end of stator is more than two rotor tooth pitch (τp; and (2 dend is less than two rotor tooth pitch. Cogging torque is an important component of torque ripple and the period ratio of the cogging torque to the back electromotive force (EMF equals one for the MAL-FSPM before optimization. In order to reduce the torque ripple as much as possible and affect the back EMF as little as possible, influence of period ratio of cogging torque to back EMF on rotor step skewing is investigated. Rotor tooth width and stator slot open width are optimized to increase the period ratio of cogging torque to back EMF. After the optimization, torque ripple is decreased by 79.8% for dend > τp and torque ripple is decreased by 49.7% for dend < τp. Finally, 3D FEM model is established to verify the 2D results.

  10. Confluence reduction for Markov automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jaco; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2016-01-01

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. As expected, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of these models. We therefore introduce confluence reduction for Markov automata, a powerful reduction

  11. Process Algebra and Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  12. Process algebra and Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, J.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  13. Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    be obtained as a limiting value of a sample path of a suitable ... makes a mathematical model of chance and deals with the problem by .... Is the Markov chain aperiodic? It is! Here is how you can see it. Suppose that after you do the cut, you hold the top half in your right hand, and the bottom half in your left. Then there.

  14. Composable Markov Building Blocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.; Prade, H.; Subrahmanian, V.S.

    2007-01-01

    In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models and only one model applies at a time (activity in one model coincides with non-activity in the other models), these models can be joined together into one. Under certain conditions, nearly all

  15. Composable Markov Building Blocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.

    2007-01-01

    In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models, these models can be joined together under the constraint that there can only be one activity at a time, i.e. the activities of one model coincide with non-activity in the other models. Under

  16. Perturbed Markov chains

    OpenAIRE

    Solan, Eilon; Vieille, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the transition matrix. We define a new closeness relation between transition matrices, and use graph-theoretic techniques, in contrast with the matrix analysis techniques previously used.

  17. Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 7; Issue 3. Markov Chain Monte Carlo - Examples. Arnab Chakraborty. General Article Volume 7 Issue 3 March 2002 pp 25-34. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/007/03/0025-0034. Keywords.

  18. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  19. Stability of Randomly Switched Diffusions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Leth, John-Josef; Gholami, Mehdi

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a sufficient criterion for ε-moment stability (boundedness) and ergodicity for a class of systems comprising a finite set of diffusions among which switching is governed by a continuous time Markov chain. Stability/instability properties for each separate subsystem are assumed...

  20. Saturated Switching Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Benzaouia, Abdellah

    2012-01-01

    Saturated Switching Systems treats the problem of actuator saturation, inherent in all dynamical systems by using two approaches: positive invariance in which the controller is designed to work within a region of non-saturating linear behaviour; and saturation technique which allows saturation but guarantees asymptotic stability. The results obtained are extended from the linear systems in which they were first developed to switching systems with uncertainties, 2D switching systems, switching systems with Markovian jumping and switching systems of the Takagi-Sugeno type. The text represents a thoroughly referenced distillation of results obtained in this field during the last decade. The selected tool for analysis and design of stabilizing controllers is based on multiple Lyapunov functions and linear matrix inequalities. All the results are illustrated with numerical examples and figures many of them being modelled using MATLAB®. Saturated Switching Systems will be of interest to academic researchers in con...

  1. MARKOV CHAIN PORTFOLIO LIQUIDITY OPTIMIZATION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eder Oliveira Abensur

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The international financial crisis of September 2008 and May 2010 showed the importance of liquidity as an attribute to be considered in portfolio decisions. This study proposes an optimization model based on available public data, using Markov chain and Genetic Algorithms concepts as it considers the classic duality of risk versus return and incorporating liquidity costs. The work intends to propose a multi-criterion non-linear optimization model using liquidity based on a Markov chain. The non-linear model was tested using Genetic Algorithms with twenty five Brazilian stocks from 2007 to 2009. The results suggest that this is an innovative development methodology and useful for developing an efficient and realistic financial portfolio, as it considers many attributes such as risk, return and liquidity.

  2. REGIME SWITCHING DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CDS SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umurcan Polat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

  3. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    OpenAIRE

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Velázquez, J. C.; Hallen, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure ...

  4. Generalized Markov branching models

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Junping

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis, we first considered a modified Markov branching process incorporating both state-independent immigration and resurrection. After establishing the criteria for regularity and uniqueness, explicit expressions for the extinction probability and mean extinction time are presented. The criteria for recurrence and ergodicity are also established. In addition, an explicit expression for the equilibrium distribution is presented.\\ud \\ud We then moved on to investigate the basic proper...

  5. Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Ragain, Stephen; Ugander, Johan

    2016-01-01

    As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale---particularly in online domains---there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansio...

  6. Distinguishing Hidden Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Kiefer, Stefan; Sistla, A. Prasad

    2015-01-01

    Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of distinguishing two given HMCs based on an observation sequence that one of the HMCs generates. More precisely, given two HMCs and an observation sequence, a distinguishing algorithm is expected to identify the HMC that generates the observation sequence. Two HM...

  7. Fermionic Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Fannes, Mark; Wouters, Jeroen

    2012-01-01

    We study a quantum process that can be considered as a quantum analogue for the classical Markov process. We specifically construct a version of these processes for free Fermions. For such free Fermionic processes we calculate the entropy density. This can be done either directly using Szeg\\"o's theorem for asymptotic densities of functions of Toeplitz matrices, or through an extension of said theorem to rates of functions, which we present in this article.

  8. Approximate quantum Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Sutter, David

    2018-01-01

    This book is an introduction to quantum Markov chains and explains how this concept is connected to the question of how well a lost quantum mechanical system can be recovered from a correlated subsystem. To achieve this goal, we strengthen the data-processing inequality such that it reveals a statement about the reconstruction of lost information. The main difficulty in order to understand the behavior of quantum Markov chains arises from the fact that quantum mechanical operators do not commute in general. As a result we start by explaining two techniques of how to deal with non-commuting matrices: the spectral pinching method and complex interpolation theory. Once the reader is familiar with these techniques a novel inequality is presented that extends the celebrated Golden-Thompson inequality to arbitrarily many matrices. This inequality is the key ingredient in understanding approximate quantum Markov chains and it answers a question from matrix analysis that was open since 1973, i.e., if Lieb's triple ma...

  9. A relation between non-Markov and Markov processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hara, H.

    1980-01-01

    With the aid of a transformation technique, it is shown that some memory effects in the non-Markov processes can be eliminated. In other words, some non-Markov processes are rewritten in a form obtained by the random walk process; the Markov process. To this end, two model processes which have some memory or correlation in the random walk process are introduced. An explanation of the memory in the processes is given. (orig.)

  10. Choice of the parameters of the cusum algorithms for parameter estimation in the markov modulated poisson process

    OpenAIRE

    Burkatovskaya, Yuliya Borisovna; Kabanova, T.; Khaustov, Pavel Aleksandrovich

    2016-01-01

    CUSUM algorithm for controlling chain state switching in the Markov modulated Poissonprocess was investigated via simulation. Recommendations concerning the parameter choice were givensubject to characteristics of the process. Procedure of the process parameter estimation was described.

  11. Artefact in Physiological Data Collected from Patients with Brain Injury: Quantifying the Problem and Providing a Solution Using a Factorial Switching Linear Dynamical Systems Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgatzis, Konstantinos; Lal, Partha; Hawthorne, Christopher; Shaw, Martin; Piper, Ian; Tarbert, Claire; Donald, Rob; Williams, Christopher K I

    2016-01-01

    High-resolution, artefact-free and accurately annotated physiological data are desirable in patients with brain injury both to inform clinical decision-making and for intelligent analysis of the data in applications such as predictive modelling. We have quantified the quality of annotation surrounding artefactual events and propose a factorial switching linear dynamical systems (FSLDS) approach to automatically detect artefact in physiological data collected in the neurological intensive care unit (NICU). Retrospective analysis of the BrainIT data set to discover potential hypotensive events corrupted by artefact and identify the annotation of associated clinical interventions. Training of an FSLDS model on clinician-annotated artefactual events in five patients with severe traumatic brain injury. In a subset of 187 patients in the BrainIT database, 26.5 % of potential hypotensive events were abandoned because of artefactual data. Only 30 % of these episodes could be attributed to an annotated clinical intervention. As assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve metric, FSLDS model performance in automatically identifying the events of blood sampling, arterial line damping and patient handling was 0.978, 0.987 and 0.765, respectively. The influence of artefact on physiological data collected in the NICU is a significant problem. This pilot study using an FSLDS approach shows real promise and is under further development.

  12. Non-stationary Markov chains

    OpenAIRE

    Mallak, Saed

    1996-01-01

    Ankara : Department of Mathematics and Institute of Engineering and Sciences of Bilkent University, 1996. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 1996. Includes bibliographical references leaves leaf 29 In thi.s work, we studierl the Ergodicilv of Non-Stationary .Markov chains. We gave several e.xainples with different cases. We proved that given a sec[uence of Markov chains such that the limit of this sec|uence is an Ergodic Markov chain, then the limit of the combination ...

  13. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Markov chain; state space; stationary transition probability; stationary distribution; irreducibility; aperiodicity; stationarity; M-H algorithm; proposal distribution; acceptance probability; image processing; Gibbs sampler.

  14. Musical Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchenkov, Dima; Dawin, Jean René

    A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.

  15. On Weak Markov's Principle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kohlenbach, Ulrich Wilhelm

    2002-01-01

    We show that the so-called weak Markov's principle (WMP) which states that every pseudo-positive real number is positive is underivable in E-HA + AC. Since allows one to formalize (atl eastl arge parts of) Bishop's constructive mathematics, this makes it unlikely that WMP can be proved within...... the framework of Bishop-style mathematics (which has been open for about 20 years). The underivability even holds if the ine.ective schema of full comprehension (in all types) for negated formulas (in particular for -free formulas) is added, which allows one to derive the law of excluded middle...

  16. Generalised linear models for correlated pseudo-observations, with applications to multi-state models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Klein, John P.; Rosthøj, Susanne

    2003-01-01

    Generalised estimating equation; Generalised linear model; Jackknife pseudo-value; Logistic regression; Markov Model; Multi-state model......Generalised estimating equation; Generalised linear model; Jackknife pseudo-value; Logistic regression; Markov Model; Multi-state model...

  17. Nonlinear Markov processes: Deterministic case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.D.

    2008-01-01

    Deterministic Markov processes that exhibit nonlinear transition mechanisms for probability densities are studied. In this context, the following issues are addressed: Markov property, conditional probability densities, propagation of probability densities, multistability in terms of multiple stationary distributions, stability analysis of stationary distributions, and basin of attraction of stationary distribution

  18. Flux through a Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Floriani, Elena; Lima, Ricardo; Ourrad, Ouerdia; Spinelli, Lionel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The flux through a Markov chain of a conserved quantity (mass) is studied. • Mass is supplied by an external source and ends in the absorbing states of the chain. • Meaningful for modeling open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property. • The analytical expression of mass distribution is given for a constant source. • The expression of mass distribution is given for periodic or random sources. - Abstract: In this paper we study the flux through a finite Markov chain of a quantity, that we will call mass, which moves through the states of the chain according to the Markov transition probabilities. Mass is supplied by an external source and accumulates in the absorbing states of the chain. We believe that studying how this conserved quantity evolves through the transient (non-absorbing) states of the chain could be useful for the modelization of open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property.

  19. Algorithms for a parallel implementation of Hidden Markov Models with a small state space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper; Sand, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Two of the most important algorithms for Hidden Markov Models are the forward and the Viterbi algorithms. We show how formulating these using linear algebra naturally lends itself to parallelization. Although the obtained algorithms are slow for Hidden Markov Models with large state spaces...

  20. Dielectric-wall linear accelerator with a high voltage fast rise time switch that includes a pair of electrodes between which are laminated alternating layers of isolated conductors and insulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporaso, George J.; Sampayan, Stephen E.; Kirbie, Hugh C.

    1998-01-01

    A dielectric-wall linear accelerator is improved by a high-voltage, fast rise-time switch that includes a pair of electrodes between which are laminated alternating layers of isolated conductors and insulators. A high voltage is placed between the electrodes sufficient to stress the voltage breakdown of the insulator on command. A light trigger, such as a laser, is focused along at least one line along the edge surface of the laminated alternating layers of isolated conductors and insulators extending between the electrodes. The laser is energized to initiate a surface breakdown by a fluence of photons, thus causing the electrical switch to close very promptly. Such insulators and lasers are incorporated in a dielectric wall linear accelerator with Blumlein modules, and phasing is controlled by adjusting the length of fiber optic cables that carry the laser light to the insulator surface.

  1. Pruning Boltzmann networks and hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten With; Stork, D.

    1996-01-01

    We present sensitivity-based pruning algorithms for general Boltzmann networks. Central to our methods is the efficient calculation of a second-order approximation to the true weight saliencies in a cross-entropy error. Building upon previous work which shows a formal correspondence between linear...... Boltzmann chains and hidden Markov models (HMMs), we argue that our method can be applied to HMMs as well. We illustrate pruning on Boltzmann zippers, which are equivalent to two HMMs with cross-connection links. We verify that our second-order approximation preserves the rank ordering of weight saliencies...

  2. Regeneration and general Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Kalashnikov

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Ergodicity, continuity, finite approximations and rare visits of general Markov chains are investigated. The obtained results permit further quantitative analysis of characteristics, such as, rates of convergence, continuity (measured as a distance between perturbed and non-perturbed characteristics, deviations between Markov chains, accuracy of approximations and bounds on the distribution function of the first visit time to a chosen subset, etc. The underlying techniques use the embedding of the general Markov chain into a wide sense regenerative process with the help of splitting construction.

  3. Markov chains theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Sericola, Bruno

    2013-01-01

    Markov chains are a fundamental class of stochastic processes. They are widely used to solve problems in a large number of domains such as operational research, computer science, communication networks and manufacturing systems. The success of Markov chains is mainly due to their simplicity of use, the large number of available theoretical results and the quality of algorithms developed for the numerical evaluation of many metrics of interest.The author presents the theory of both discrete-time and continuous-time homogeneous Markov chains. He carefully examines the explosion phenomenon, the

  4. Quadratic Variation by Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Horel, Guillaume

    We introduce a novel estimator of the quadratic variation that is based on the the- ory of Markov chains. The estimator is motivated by some general results concerning filtering contaminated semimartingales. Specifically, we show that filtering can in prin- ciple remove the effects of market...... microstructure noise in a general framework where little is assumed about the noise. For the practical implementation, we adopt the dis- crete Markov chain model that is well suited for the analysis of financial high-frequency prices. The Markov chain framework facilitates simple expressions and elegant analyti...

  5. Portfolio Selection with Jumps under Regime Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Zhao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a continuous-time version of the mean-variance portfolio selection model with jumps under regime switching. The portfolio selection is proposed and analyzed for a market consisting of one bank account and multiple stocks. The random regime switching is assumed to be independent of the underlying Brownian motion and jump processes. A Markov chain modulated diffusion formulation is employed to model the problem.

  6. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Systat Software Asia-Pacific. Ltd., in Bangalore, where the technical work for the development of the statistical software Systat takes ... In Part 4, we discuss some applications of the Markov ... one can construct the joint probability distribution of.

  7. Reviving Markov processes and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, H.

    1988-01-01

    In this dissertation we study a procedure which restarts a Markov process when the process is killed by some arbitrary multiplicative functional. The regenerative nature of this revival procedure is characterized through a Markov renewal equation. An interesting duality between the revival procedure and the classical killing operation is found. Under the condition that the multiplicative functional possesses an intensity, the generators of the revival process can be written down explicitly. An intimate connection is also found between the perturbation of the sample path of a Markov process and the perturbation of a generator (in Kato's sense). The applications of the theory include the study of the processes like piecewise-deterministic Markov process, virtual waiting time process and the first entrance decomposition (taboo probability)

  8. Confluence reduction for Markov automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  9. Confluence Reduction for Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Braberman, Victor; Fribourg, Laurent

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  10. Testing for regime-switching CAPM on Zagreb Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihana Škrinjarić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The standard Capital Asset Pricing Model assumes that a linear relationship exists between the risk (beta and the expected excess return of a stock. However, empirical findings have shown over the years that this relationship varies over time. Stock markets undergo phases of greater and smaller volatility in which beta varies accordingly (undergoes different regimes. Given that the Croatian capital market is still insufficiently investigated, the aim of this paper is to explore the possibility of a non-linear relationship between the stock risk and return. Linear and Markov-switching models (Hamilton 1989 are examined on the Zagreb Stock Exchange based on monthly data on 21 stocks, ranging from January 2005 to December 2013. In that way, investors can use the results based on the best model when making decisions about buying stocks. Since this is one of the first papers on regime-switching on the Croatian capital market, it will hopefully contribute to the existing literature on investing.

  11. Transportation and concentration inequalities for bifurcating Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penda, S. Valère Bitseki; Escobar-Bach, Mikael; Guillin, Arnaud

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the transportation inequality for bifurcating Markov chains which are a class of processes indexed by a regular binary tree. Fitting well models like cell growth when each individual gives birth to exactly two offsprings, we use transportation inequalities to provide useful...... concentration inequalities.We also study deviation inequalities for the empirical means under relaxed assumptions on the Wasserstein contraction for the Markov kernels. Applications to bifurcating nonlinear autoregressive processes are considered for point-wise estimates of the non-linear autoregressive...

  12. Dynamic modeling of presence of occupants using inhomogeneous Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Iversen, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    on time of day, and by use of a filter of the observations it is able to capture per-employee sequence dynamics. Simulations using this method are compared with simulations using homogeneous Markov chains and show far better ability to reproduce key properties of the data. The method is based...... on inhomogeneous Markov chains with where the transition probabilities are estimated using generalized linear models with polynomials, B-splines, and a filter of passed observations as inputs. For treating the dispersion of the data series, a hierarchical model structure is used where one model is for low presence...

  13. Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)], E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Velazquez, J.C. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico); Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 La Habana (Cuba); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)

    2009-09-15

    A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.

  14. Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caleyo, F.; Velazquez, J.C.; Valor, A.; Hallen, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.

  15. The spectral method and ergodic theorems for general Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagaev, S V

    2015-01-01

    We study the ergodic properties of Markov chains with an arbitrary state space and prove a geometric ergodic theorem. The method of the proof is new: it may be described as an operator method. Our main result is an ergodic theorem for Harris-Markov chains in the case when the return time to some fixed set has finite expectation. Our conditions for the transition function are more general than those used by Athreya-Ney and Nummelin. Unlike them, we impose restrictions not on the original transition function but on the transition function of an embedded Markov chain constructed from the return times to the fixed set mentioned above. The proof uses the spectral theory of linear operators on a Banach space

  16. Control synthesis of switched systems

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xudong; Niu, Ben; Wu, Tingting

    2017-01-01

    This book offers its readers a detailed overview of the synthesis of switched systems, with a focus on switching stabilization and intelligent control. The problems investigated are not only previously unsolved theoretically but also of practical importance in many applications: voltage conversion, naval piloting and navigation and robotics, for example. The book considers general switched-system models and provides more efficient design methods to bring together theory and application more closely than was possible using classical methods. It also discusses several different classes of switched systems. For general switched linear systems and switched nonlinear systems comprising unstable subsystems, it introduces novel ideas such as invariant subspace theory and the time-scheduled Lyapunov function method of designing switching signals to stabilize the underlying systems. For some typical switched nonlinear systems affected by various complex dynamics, the book proposes novel design approaches based on inte...

  17. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Valor

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.

  18. Analysis and design of Markov jump systems with complex transition probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Lixian; Shi, Peng; Zhu, Yanzheng

    2016-01-01

    The book addresses the control issues such as stability analysis, control synthesis and filter design of Markov jump systems with the above three types of TPs, and thus is mainly divided into three parts. Part I studies the Markov jump systems with partially unknown TPs. Different methodologies with different conservatism for the basic stability and stabilization problems are developed and compared. Then the problems of state estimation, the control of systems with time-varying delays, the case involved with both partially unknown TPs and uncertain TPs in a composite way are also tackled. Part II deals with the Markov jump systems with piecewise homogeneous TPs. Methodologies that can effectively handle control problems in the scenario are developed, including the one coping with the asynchronous switching phenomenon between the currently activated system mode and the controller/filter to be designed. Part III focuses on the Markov jump systems with memory TPs. The concept of σ-mean square stability is propo...

  19. Maximizing Entropy over Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2013-01-01

    The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of an system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code....

  20. Maximizing entropy over Markov processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2014-01-01

    The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of a system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code. © 2014 Elsevier...

  1. Markov Networks in Evolutionary Computation

    CERN Document Server

    Shakya, Siddhartha

    2012-01-01

    Markov networks and other probabilistic graphical modes have recently received an upsurge in attention from Evolutionary computation community, particularly in the area of Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs).  EDAs have arisen as one of the most successful experiences in the application of machine learning methods in optimization, mainly due to their efficiency to solve complex real-world optimization problems and their suitability for theoretical analysis. This book focuses on the different steps involved in the conception, implementation and application of EDAs that use Markov networks, and undirected models in general. It can serve as a general introduction to EDAs but covers also an important current void in the study of these algorithms by explaining the specificities and benefits of modeling optimization problems by means of undirected probabilistic models. All major developments to date in the progressive introduction of Markov networks based EDAs are reviewed in the book. Hot current researc...

  2. Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abounoori, Esmaiel; Elmi, Zahra (Mila); Nademi, Younes

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates several GARCH models regarding their ability to forecast volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). These include GARCH models with both Gaussian and fat-tailed residual conditional distribution, concerning their ability to describe and forecast volatility from 1-day to 22-day horizon. Results indicate that AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED model outperforms other models at one-day horizon. Also, the AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED as well as AR(2)-MRSGARCH-t models outperform other models at 5-day horizon. In 10 day horizon, three models of AR(2)-MRSGARCH outperform other models. Concerning 22 day forecast horizon, results indicate no differences between MRSGARCH models with that of standard GARCH models. Regarding Risk management out-of-sample evaluation (95% VaR), a few models seem to provide reasonable and accurate VaR estimates at 1-day horizon, with a coverage rate close to the nominal level. According to the risk management loss functions, there is not a uniformly most accurate model.

  3. Markov chains and mixing times

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, David A; Wilmer, Elizabeth L

    2009-01-01

    This book is an introduction to the modern approach to the theory of Markov chains. The main goal of this approach is to determine the rate of convergence of a Markov chain to the stationary distribution as a function of the size and geometry of the state space. The authors develop the key tools for estimating convergence times, including coupling, strong stationary times, and spectral methods. Whenever possible, probabilistic methods are emphasized. The book includes many examples and provides brief introductions to some central models of statistical mechanics. Also provided are accounts of r

  4. Markov Models for Handwriting Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Plotz, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Since their first inception, automatic reading systems have evolved substantially, yet the recognition of handwriting remains an open research problem due to its substantial variation in appearance. With the introduction of Markovian models to the field, a promising modeling and recognition paradigm was established for automatic handwriting recognition. However, no standard procedures for building Markov model-based recognizers have yet been established. This text provides a comprehensive overview of the application of Markov models in the field of handwriting recognition, covering both hidden

  5. Approximating Markov Chains: What and why

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pincus, S.

    1996-01-01

    Much of the current study of dynamical systems is focused on geometry (e.g., chaos and bifurcations) and ergodic theory. Yet dynamical systems were originally motivated by an attempt to open-quote open-quote solve,close-quote close-quote or at least understand, a discrete-time analogue of differential equations. As such, numerical, analytical solution techniques for dynamical systems would seem desirable. We discuss an approach that provides such techniques, the approximation of dynamical systems by suitable finite state Markov Chains. Steady state distributions for these Markov Chains, a straightforward calculation, will converge to the true dynamical system steady state distribution, with appropriate limit theorems indicated. Thus (i) approximation by a computable, linear map holds the promise of vastly faster steady state solutions for nonlinear, multidimensional differential equations; (ii) the solution procedure is unaffected by the presence or absence of a probability density function for the attractor, entirely skirting singularity, fractal/multifractal, and renormalization considerations. The theoretical machinery underpinning this development also implies that under very general conditions, steady state measures are weakly continuous with control parameter evolution. This means that even though a system may change periodicity, or become chaotic in its limiting behavior, such statistical parameters as the mean, standard deviation, and tail probabilities change continuously, not abruptly with system evolution. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  6. Honest Importance Sampling with Multiple Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Aixin; Doss, Hani; Hobert, James P

    2015-01-01

    Importance sampling is a classical Monte Carlo technique in which a random sample from one probability density, π 1 , is used to estimate an expectation with respect to another, π . The importance sampling estimator is strongly consistent and, as long as two simple moment conditions are satisfied, it obeys a central limit theorem (CLT). Moreover, there is a simple consistent estimator for the asymptotic variance in the CLT, which makes for routine computation of standard errors. Importance sampling can also be used in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) context. Indeed, if the random sample from π 1 is replaced by a Harris ergodic Markov chain with invariant density π 1 , then the resulting estimator remains strongly consistent. There is a price to be paid however, as the computation of standard errors becomes more complicated. First, the two simple moment conditions that guarantee a CLT in the iid case are not enough in the MCMC context. Second, even when a CLT does hold, the asymptotic variance has a complex form and is difficult to estimate consistently. In this paper, we explain how to use regenerative simulation to overcome these problems. Actually, we consider a more general set up, where we assume that Markov chain samples from several probability densities, π 1 , …, π k , are available. We construct multiple-chain importance sampling estimators for which we obtain a CLT based on regeneration. We show that if the Markov chains converge to their respective target distributions at a geometric rate, then under moment conditions similar to those required in the iid case, the MCMC-based importance sampling estimator obeys a CLT. Furthermore, because the CLT is based on a regenerative process, there is a simple consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. We illustrate the method with two applications in Bayesian sensitivity analysis. The first concerns one-way random effects models under different priors. The second involves Bayesian variable

  7. Exciter switch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcpeak, W. L.

    1975-01-01

    A new exciter switch assembly has been installed at the three DSN 64-m deep space stations. This assembly provides for switching Block III and Block IV exciters to either the high-power or 20-kW transmitters in either dual-carrier or single-carrier mode. In the dual-carrier mode, it provides for balancing the two drive signals from a single control panel located in the transmitter local control and remote control consoles. In addition to the improved switching capabilities, extensive monitoring of both the exciter switch assembly and Transmitter Subsystem is provided by the exciter switch monitor and display assemblies.

  8. Consistency and refinement for Interval Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delahaye, Benoit; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2012-01-01

    Interval Markov Chains (IMC), or Markov Chains with probability intervals in the transition matrix, are the base of a classic specification theory for probabilistic systems [18]. The standard semantics of IMCs assigns to a specification the set of all Markov Chains that satisfy its interval...

  9. A Markov reward model checker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.; Maneesh Khattri, M.; Zapreev, I.S.; Zapreev, I.S.

    2005-01-01

    This short tool paper introduces MRMC, a model checker for discrete-time and continuous-time Markov reward models. It supports reward extensions of PCTL and CSL, and allows for the automated verification of properties concerning long-run and instantaneous rewards as well as cumulative rewards. In

  10. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  11. Markov Decision Processes in Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Dijk, N.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is over 30 years ago since D.J. White started his series of surveys on practical applications of Markov decision processes (MDP), over 20 years after the phenomenal book by Martin Puterman on the theory of MDP, and over 10 years since Eugene A. Feinberg and Adam Shwartz published their Handbook

  12. Robust filtering and prediction for systems with embedded finite-state Markov-Chain dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate, E.B.

    1986-01-01

    This research developed new methodologies for the design of robust near-optimal filters/predictors for a class of system models that exhibit embedded finite-state Markov-chain dynamics. These methodologies are developed through the concepts and methods of stochastic model building (including time-series analysis), game theory, decision theory, and filtering/prediction for linear dynamic systems. The methodology is based on the relationship between the robustness of a class of time-series models and quantization which is applied to the time series as part of the model identification process. This relationship is exploited by utilizing the concept of an equivalence, through invariance of spectra, between the class of Markov-chain models and the class of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. This spectral equivalence permits a straightforward implementation of the desirable robust properties of the Markov-chain approximation in a class of models which may be applied in linear-recursive form in a linear Kalman filter/predictor structure. The linear filter/predictor structure is shown to provide asymptotically optimal estimates of states which represent one or more integrations of the Markov-chain state. The development of a new saddle-point theorem for a game based on the Markov-chain model structure gives rise to a technique for determining a worst case Markov-chain process, upon which a robust filter/predictor design if based

  13. The Markov moment problem and extremal problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kreĭn, M G; Louvish, D

    1977-01-01

    In this book, an extensive circle of questions originating in the classical work of P. L. Chebyshev and A. A. Markov is considered from the more modern point of view. It is shown how results and methods of the generalized moment problem are interlaced with various questions of the geometry of convex bodies, algebra, and function theory. From this standpoint, the structure of convex and conical hulls of curves is studied in detail and isoperimetric inequalities for convex hulls are established; a theory of orthogonal and quasiorthogonal polynomials is constructed; problems on limiting values of integrals and on least deviating functions (in various metrics) are generalized and solved; problems in approximation theory and interpolation and extrapolation in various function classes (analytic, absolutely monotone, almost periodic, etc.) are solved, as well as certain problems in optimal control of linear objects.

  14. A note on the linear memory Baum-Welch algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jens Ledet

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate the simplicity and generality of the recently introduced linear space Baum-Welch algorithm for hidden Markov models. We also point to previous literature on the subject.......We demonstrate the simplicity and generality of the recently introduced linear space Baum-Welch algorithm for hidden Markov models. We also point to previous literature on the subject....

  15. The computation of stationary distributions of Markov chains through perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffery J. Hunter

    1991-01-01

    Full Text Available An algorithmic procedure for the determination of the stationary distribution of a finite, m-state, irreducible Markov chain, that does not require the use of methods for solving systems of linear equations, is presented. The technique is based upon a succession of m, rank one, perturbations of the trivial doubly stochastic matrix whose known steady state vector is updated at each stage to yield the required stationary probability vector.

  16. Pricing Options and Equity-Indexed Annuities in a Regime-switching Model by Trinomial Tree Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Lung Yuen

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we summarize the main idea and results of Yuen and Yang (2009, 2010a, 2010b and provide some results on pricing of Parisian options under the Markov regime-switching model (MRSM. The MRSM allows the parameters of the market model depending on a Markovian process, and the model can reflect the information of the market environment which cannot be modeled solely by linear Gaussian process. However, when the parameters of the stock price model are not constant but governed by a Markovian process, the pricing of the options becomes complex. We present a fast and simple trinomial tree model to price options in MRSM. In recent years, the pricing of modern insurance products, such as Equity-Indexed annuity (EIA and variable annuities (VAs, has become a popular topic. We show here that our trinomial tree model can been used to price EIA with strong path dependent exotic options in the regime switching model.

  17. Recent developments in switching theory

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Amar

    2013-01-01

    Electrical Science Series: Recent Developments in Switching Theory covers the progress in the study of the switching theory. The book discusses the simplified proof of Post's theorem on completeness of logic primitives; the role of feedback in combinational switching circuits; and the systematic procedure for the design of Lupanov decoding networks. The text also describes the classical results on counting theorems and their application to the classification of switching functions under different notions of equivalence, including linear and affine equivalences. The development of abstract har

  18. Markov chains and mixing times

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, David A

    2017-01-01

    Markov Chains and Mixing Times is a magical book, managing to be both friendly and deep. It gently introduces probabilistic techniques so that an outsider can follow. At the same time, it is the first book covering the geometric theory of Markov chains and has much that will be new to experts. It is certainly THE book that I will use to teach from. I recommend it to all comers, an amazing achievement. -Persi Diaconis, Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics, Stanford University Mixing times are an active research topic within many fields from statistical physics to the theory of algorithms, as well as having intrinsic interest within mathematical probability and exploiting discrete analogs of important geometry concepts. The first edition became an instant classic, being accessible to advanced undergraduates and yet bringing readers close to current research frontiers. This second edition adds chapters on monotone chains, the exclusion process and hitting time parameters. Having both exercises...

  19. Pseudospark switches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billault, P.; Riege, H.; Gulik, M. van; Boggasch, E.; Frank, K.

    1987-01-01

    The pseudospark discharge is bound to a geometrical structure which is particularly well suited for switching high currents and voltages at high power levels. This type of discharge offers the potential for improvement in essentially all areas of switching operation: peak current and current density, current rise, stand-off voltage, reverse current capability, cathode life, and forward drop. The first pseudospark switch was built at CERN at 1981. Since then, the basic switching characteristics of pseudospark chambers have been studied in detail. The main feature of a pseudospark switch is the confinement of the discharge plasma to the device axis. The current transition to the hollow electrodes is spread over a rather large surface area. Another essential feature is the easy and precise triggering of the pseudospark switch from the interior of the hollow electrodes, relatively far from the main discharge gap. Nanosecond delay and jitter values can be achieved with trigger energies of less than 0.1 mJ, although cathode heating is not required. Pseudospark gaps may cover a wide range of high-voltage, high-current, and high-pulse-power switching at repetition rates of many kilohertz. This report reviews the basic researh on pseudospark switches which has been going on at CERN. So far, applications have been developed in the range of thyratron-like medium-power switches at typically 20 to 40 kV and 0.5 to 10 kA. High-current pseudospark switches have been built for a high-power 20 kJ pulse generator which is being used for long-term tests of plasma lenses developed for the future CERN Antiproton Collector (ACOL). The high-current switches have operated for several hundred thousand shots, with 20 to 50 ns jitter at 16 kV charging voltage and more than 100 kA peak current amplitude. (orig.)

  20. Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, H Robert; McCray, Alexa T

    2012-02-03

    Biomedical ontologies have become an increasingly critical lens through which researchers analyze the genomic, clinical and bibliographic data that fuels scientific research. Of particular relevance are methods, such as enrichment analysis, that quantify the importance of ontology classes relative to a collection of domain data. Current analytical techniques, however, remain limited in their ability to handle many important types of structural complexity encountered in real biological systems including class overlaps, continuously valued data, inter-instance relationships, non-hierarchical relationships between classes, semantic distance and sparse data. In this paper, we describe a methodology called Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA) and illustrate its use through a MCOA-based enrichment analysis application based on a generative model of gene activation. MCOA models the classes in an ontology, the instances from an associated dataset and all directional inter-class, class-to-instance and inter-instance relationships as a single finite ergodic Markov chain. The adjusted transition probability matrix for this Markov chain enables the calculation of eigenvector values that quantify the importance of each ontology class relative to other classes and the associated data set members. On both controlled Gene Ontology (GO) data sets created with Escherichia coli, Drosophila melanogaster and Homo sapiens annotations and real gene expression data extracted from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), the MCOA enrichment analysis approach provides the best performance of comparable state-of-the-art methods. A methodology based on Markov chain models and network analytic metrics can help detect the relevant signal within large, highly interdependent and noisy data sets and, for applications such as enrichment analysis, has been shown to generate superior performance on both real and simulated data relative to existing state-of-the-art approaches.

  1. Two Aspects of the Simplex Model: Goodness of Fit to Linear Growth Curve Structures and the Analysis of Mean Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandys, Frantisek; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    1994-01-01

    Studied the conditions under which the quasi-Markov simplex model fits a linear growth curve covariance structure and determined when the model is rejected. Presents a quasi-Markov simplex model with structured means and gives an example. (SLD)

  2. Markov processes characterization and convergence

    CERN Document Server

    Ethier, Stewart N

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."[A]nyone who works with Markov processes whose state space is uncountably infinite will need this most impressive book as a guide and reference."-American Scientist"There is no question but that space should immediately be reserved for [this] book on the library shelf. Those who aspire to mastery of the contents should also reserve a large number of long winter evenings."-Zentralblatt f?r Mathematik und ihre Grenzgebiete/Mathematics Abstracts"Ethier and Kurtz have produced an excellent treatment of the modern theory of Markov processes that [is] useful both as a reference work and as a graduate textbook."-Journal of Statistical PhysicsMarkov Proce...

  3. Switch on, switch off: stiction in nanoelectromechanical switches

    KAUST Repository

    Wagner, Till J W

    2013-06-13

    We present a theoretical investigation of stiction in nanoscale electromechanical contact switches. We develop a mathematical model to describe the deflection of a cantilever beam in response to both electrostatic and van der Waals forces. Particular focus is given to the question of whether adhesive van der Waals forces cause the cantilever to remain in the \\'ON\\' state even when the electrostatic forces are removed. In contrast to previous studies, our theory accounts for deflections with large slopes (i.e. geometrically nonlinear). We solve the resulting equations numerically to study how a cantilever beam adheres to a rigid electrode: transitions between \\'free\\', \\'pinned\\' and \\'clamped\\' states are shown to be discontinuous and to exhibit significant hysteresis. Our findings are compared to previous results from linearized models and the implications for nanoelectromechanical cantilever switch design are discussed. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  4. Optical fibres sensor based in the intensity switch of a linear laser with two Bragg gratings; Sensor de fibra optica basado en el salto de intensidad de un laser lineal con dos rejillas de Bragg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basurto P, M.A.; Kuzin, E.A.; Archundia B, C.; Marroquin, E.; May A, M.; Cerecedo N, H.H.; Sanchez M, J.J. [Departamento de Fotonica y Fisica Optica, Instituto Nacional de Astrofisica, Optica y Electronica (INAOE). Apartado Postal 51 y 216, 72000 Puebla (Mexico); Tentori S, D.; Marquez B, I.; Shliagin, M.; Miridonov, S. [Centro de Investigacion CESE (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    In this work we propose a new configuration for an optical fiber temperature sensor, based on a linear type Er-doped fiber laser. The laser cavity consists of an Er-doped fiber and two identical Bragg gratings at the fiber ends (working as reflectors). Temperature changes are detected by measuring, through one of the gratings, the intensity variations atthe system's output. When the temperature of one of the Bragg gratings is modified, a wavelength shift of its spectral reflectivity is observed. Hence, the laser emission intensity of the system is modified. We present experimental results of the intensity switch observed when the temperature difference between the gratings detunes their spectral reflectance. Making use of this effect it is possible to develop limit comparators to bound the temperature range for the object under supervision. This limiting work can be performed with a high sensitivity using a very simple interrogation procedure. (Author)

  5. Stability Analysis of Networked Control Systems with Random Time Delays and Packet Dropouts Modeled by Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qiu

    2013-01-01

    unified Markov jump model. The random time delays and packet dropouts existed in feedback communication link are modeled by two independent Markov chains; the resulting closed-loop system is described by a new Markovian jump linear system (MJLS with Markov delays. Sufficient conditions of the stochastic stability for NCSs is obtained by constructing a novel Lyapunov functional, and the mode-dependent output feedback controller design method is presented based on linear matrix inequality (LMI technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  6. MO-FG-BRC-02: Low-Z Switching Linear Accelerator Targets: New Options for Image Guidance and Dose Enhancement in Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robar, J.

    2016-01-01

    Experimental research in medical physics has expanded the limits of our knowledge and provided novel imaging and therapy technologies for patients around the world. However, experimental efforts are challenging due to constraints in funding, space, time and other forms of institutional support. In this joint ESTRO-AAPM symposium, four exciting experimental projects from four different countries are highlighted. Each project is focused on a different aspect of radiation therapy. From the USA, we will hear about a new linear accelerator concept for more compact and efficient therapy devices. From Canada, we will learn about novel linear accelerator target design and the implications for imaging and therapy. From France, we will discover a mature translational effort to incorporate theranostic nanoparticles in MR-guided radiation therapy. From Germany, we will find out about a novel in-treatment imaging modality for particle therapy. These examples of high impact, experimental medical physics research are representative of the diversity of such efforts that are on-going around the globe. J. Robar, Research is supported through collaboration with Varian Medical Systems and Brainlab AGD. Westerly, This work is supported by the Department of Radiation Oncology at the University of Colorado School of Medicine. COI: NONEK. Parodi, Part of the presented work is supported by the DFG (German Research Foundation) Cluster of Excellence MAP (Munich-Centre for Advanced Photonics) and has been carried out in collaboration with IBA.

  7. MO-FG-BRC-02: Low-Z Switching Linear Accelerator Targets: New Options for Image Guidance and Dose Enhancement in Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robar, J. [Capital District Health Authority (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Experimental research in medical physics has expanded the limits of our knowledge and provided novel imaging and therapy technologies for patients around the world. However, experimental efforts are challenging due to constraints in funding, space, time and other forms of institutional support. In this joint ESTRO-AAPM symposium, four exciting experimental projects from four different countries are highlighted. Each project is focused on a different aspect of radiation therapy. From the USA, we will hear about a new linear accelerator concept for more compact and efficient therapy devices. From Canada, we will learn about novel linear accelerator target design and the implications for imaging and therapy. From France, we will discover a mature translational effort to incorporate theranostic nanoparticles in MR-guided radiation therapy. From Germany, we will find out about a novel in-treatment imaging modality for particle therapy. These examples of high impact, experimental medical physics research are representative of the diversity of such efforts that are on-going around the globe. J. Robar, Research is supported through collaboration with Varian Medical Systems and Brainlab AGD. Westerly, This work is supported by the Department of Radiation Oncology at the University of Colorado School of Medicine. COI: NONEK. Parodi, Part of the presented work is supported by the DFG (German Research Foundation) Cluster of Excellence MAP (Munich-Centre for Advanced Photonics) and has been carried out in collaboration with IBA.

  8. STABILITY OF LINEAR SYSTEMS WITH MARKOVIAN JUMPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Enrique Mayta Guillermo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work we will analyze the stability of linear systems governed by a Markov chain, this family is known in the specialized literature as linear systems with Markov jumps or by its acronyms in English MJLS as it is denoted in [1]. Linear systems governed by a Markov chain are dynamic systems with abrupt changes. We give some denitions of stability for the MJLS system, where these types of stability are equivalent as long as the state space of the Markov chain is nite. Finally we present a theorem that characterizes the stochastic stability by means of an equation of the Lyapunov type. The result is a generalization of a theorem in classical theory.

  9. Verification of Open Interactive Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Brazdil, Tomas; Hermanns, Holger; Krcal, Jan; Kretinsky, Jan; Rehak, Vojtech

    2012-01-01

    Interactive Markov chains (IMC) are compositional behavioral models extending both labeled transition systems and continuous-time Markov chains. IMC pair modeling convenience - owed to compositionality properties - with effective verification algorithms and tools - owed to Markov properties. Thus far however, IMC verification did not consider compositionality properties, but considered closed systems. This paper discusses the evaluation of IMC in an open and thus compositional interpretation....

  10. Spectral methods for quantum Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szehr, Oleg

    2014-05-08

    The aim of this project is to contribute to our understanding of quantum time evolutions, whereby we focus on quantum Markov chains. The latter constitute a natural generalization of the ubiquitous concept of a classical Markov chain to describe evolutions of quantum mechanical systems. We contribute to the theory of such processes by introducing novel methods that allow us to relate the eigenvalue spectrum of the transition map to convergence as well as stability properties of the Markov chain.

  11. Spectral methods for quantum Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szehr, Oleg

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this project is to contribute to our understanding of quantum time evolutions, whereby we focus on quantum Markov chains. The latter constitute a natural generalization of the ubiquitous concept of a classical Markov chain to describe evolutions of quantum mechanical systems. We contribute to the theory of such processes by introducing novel methods that allow us to relate the eigenvalue spectrum of the transition map to convergence as well as stability properties of the Markov chain.

  12. A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    If ($C_n$) a Markov chain on a discrete state space $S$, a Markov chain ($C_n, M_n$) on the product space $S \\times S$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain behaves like the original Markov chain and the second component changes only when both

  13. Criterion of Semi-Markov Dependent Risk Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yun MO; Xiang Qun YANG

    2014-01-01

    A rigorous definition of semi-Markov dependent risk model is given. This model is a generalization of the Markov dependent risk model. A criterion and necessary conditions of semi-Markov dependent risk model are obtained. The results clarify relations between elements among semi-Markov dependent risk model more clear and are applicable for Markov dependent risk model.

  14. How to calculate linear absorption spectra with lifetime broadening using fewest switches surface hopping trajectories: A simple generalization of ground-state Kubo theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, Andrew S.; Subotnik, Joseph E.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a surface hopping approach for calculating linear absorption spectra using ensembles of classical trajectories propagated on both the ground and excited potential energy surfaces. We demonstrate that our method allows the dipole-dipole correlation function to be determined exactly for the model problem of two shifted, uncoupled harmonic potentials with the same harmonic frequency. For systems where nonadiabatic dynamics and electronic relaxation are present, preliminary results show that our method produces spectra in better agreement with the results of exact quantum dynamics calculations than spectra obtained using the standard ground-state Kubo formalism. As such, our proposed surface hopping approach should find immediate use for modeling condensed phase spectra, especially for expensive calculations using ab initio potential energy surfaces

  15. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  16. Quasi-Feller Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean B. Lasserre

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the class of Markov kernels for which the weak or strong Feller property fails to hold at some discontinuity set. We provide a simple necessary and sufficient condition for existence of an invariant probability measure as well as a Foster-Lyapunov sufficient condition. We also characterize a subclass, the quasi (weak or strong Feller kernels, for which the sequences of expected occupation measures share the same asymptotic properties as for (weak or strong Feller kernels. In particular, it is shown that the sequences of expected occupation measures of strong and quasi strong-Feller kernels with an invariant probability measure converge setwise to an invariant measure.

  17. Markov process of muscle motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratiev, Yu; Pechersky, E; Pirogov, S

    2008-01-01

    We study a Markov random process describing muscle molecular motor behaviour. Every motor is either bound up with a thin filament or unbound. In the bound state the motor creates a force proportional to its displacement from the neutral position. In both states the motor spends an exponential time depending on the state. The thin filament moves at a velocity proportional to the average of all displacements of all motors. We assume that the time which a motor stays in the bound state does not depend on its displacement. Then one can find an exact solution of a nonlinear equation appearing in the limit of an infinite number of motors

  18. Semi-Markov Chains and Hidden Semi-Markov Models toward Applications Their Use in Reliability and DNA Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Vlad

    2008-01-01

    Semi-Markov processes are much more general and better adapted to applications than the Markov ones because sojourn times in any state can be arbitrarily distributed, as opposed to the geometrically distributed sojourn time in the Markov case. This book concerns with the estimation of discrete-time semi-Markov and hidden semi-Markov processes

  19. Regime-switching models to study psychological process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamaker, E.L.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Kamphuis, J.H.

    2010-01-01

    Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between different states. To model these processes at the level of the individual, regime-switching models may prove useful. In this chapter we discuss two of these models: the threshold autoregressive model and the Markov

  20. Timed Comparisons of Semi-Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mathias Ruggaard; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Bacci, Giorgio

    2018-01-01

    -Markov processes, and investigate the question of how to compare two semi-Markov processes with respect to their time-dependent behaviour. To this end, we introduce the relation of being “faster than” between processes and study its algorithmic complexity. Through a connection to probabilistic automata we obtain...

  1. Probabilistic Reachability for Parametric Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahn, Ernst Moritz; Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun

    2011-01-01

    Given a parametric Markov model, we consider the problem of computing the rational function expressing the probability of reaching a given set of states. To attack this principal problem, Daws has suggested to first convert the Markov chain into a finite automaton, from which a regular expression...

  2. Inhomogeneous Markov point processes by transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Eva B. Vedel; Nielsen, Linda Stougaard

    2000-01-01

    We construct parametrized models for point processes, allowing for both inhomogeneity and interaction. The inhomogeneity is obtained by applying parametrized transformations to homogeneous Markov point processes. An interesting model class, which can be constructed by this transformation approach......, is that of exponential inhomogeneous Markov point processes. Statistical inference For such processes is discussed in some detail....

  3. Markov-modulated and feedback fluid queues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.

    1998-01-01

    In the last twenty years the field of Markov-modulated fluid queues has received considerable attention. In these models a fluid reservoir receives and/or releases fluid at rates which depend on the actual state of a background Markov chain. In the first chapter of this thesis we give a short

  4. Classification Using Markov Blanket for Feature Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Luo, Jian

    2009-01-01

    Selecting relevant features is in demand when a large data set is of interest in a classification task. It produces a tractable number of features that are sufficient and possibly improve the classification performance. This paper studies a statistical method of Markov blanket induction algorithm...... for filtering features and then applies a classifier using the Markov blanket predictors. The Markov blanket contains a minimal subset of relevant features that yields optimal classification performance. We experimentally demonstrate the improved performance of several classifiers using a Markov blanket...... induction as a feature selection method. In addition, we point out an important assumption behind the Markov blanket induction algorithm and show its effect on the classification performance....

  5. Quantum Markov Chain Mixing and Dissipative Engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kastoryano, Michael James

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is the fruit of investigations on the extension of ideas of Markov chain mixing to the quantum setting, and its application to problems of dissipative engineering. A Markov chain describes a statistical process where the probability of future events depends only on the state...... of the system at the present point in time, but not on the history of events. Very many important processes in nature are of this type, therefore a good understanding of their behaviour has turned out to be very fruitful for science. Markov chains always have a non-empty set of limiting distributions...... (stationary states). The aim of Markov chain mixing is to obtain (upper and/or lower) bounds on the number of steps it takes for the Markov chain to reach a stationary state. The natural quantum extensions of these notions are density matrices and quantum channels. We set out to develop a general mathematical...

  6. label.switching: An R Package for Dealing with the Label Switching Problem in MCMC Outputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiotis Papastamoulis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Label switching is a well-known and fundamental problem in Bayesian estimation of mixture or hidden Markov models. In case that the prior distribution of the model parameters is the same for all states, then both the likelihood and posterior distribution are invariant to permutations of the parameters. This property makes Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC samples simulated from the posterior distribution non-identifiable. In this paper, the label.switching package is introduced. It contains one probabilistic and seven deterministic relabeling algorithms in order to post-process a given MCMC sample, provided by the user. Each method returns a set of permutations that can be used to reorder the MCMC output. Then, any parametric function of interest can be inferred using the reordered MCMC sample. A set of user-defined permutations is also accepted, allowing the researcher to benchmark new relabeling methods against the available ones.

  7. The Bacterial Sequential Markov Coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Maio, Nicola; Wilson, Daniel J

    2017-05-01

    Bacteria can exchange and acquire new genetic material from other organisms directly and via the environment. This process, known as bacterial recombination, has a strong impact on the evolution of bacteria, for example, leading to the spread of antibiotic resistance across clades and species, and to the avoidance of clonal interference. Recombination hinders phylogenetic and transmission inference because it creates patterns of substitutions (homoplasies) inconsistent with the hypothesis of a single evolutionary tree. Bacterial recombination is typically modeled as statistically akin to gene conversion in eukaryotes, i.e. , using the coalescent with gene conversion (CGC). However, this model can be very computationally demanding as it needs to account for the correlations of evolutionary histories of even distant loci. So, with the increasing popularity of whole genome sequencing, the need has emerged for a faster approach to model and simulate bacterial genome evolution. We present a new model that approximates the coalescent with gene conversion: the bacterial sequential Markov coalescent (BSMC). Our approach is based on a similar idea to the sequential Markov coalescent (SMC)-an approximation of the coalescent with crossover recombination. However, bacterial recombination poses hurdles to a sequential Markov approximation, as it leads to strong correlations and linkage disequilibrium across very distant sites in the genome. Our BSMC overcomes these difficulties, and shows a considerable reduction in computational demand compared to the exact CGC, and very similar patterns in simulated data. We implemented our BSMC model within new simulation software FastSimBac. In addition to the decreased computational demand compared to previous bacterial genome evolution simulators, FastSimBac provides more general options for evolutionary scenarios, allowing population structure with migration, speciation, population size changes, and recombination hotspots. FastSimBac is

  8. ''adding'' algorithm for the Markov chain formalism for radiation transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esposito, L.W.

    1979-01-01

    The Markov chain radiative transfer method of Esposito and House has been shown to be both efficient and accurate for calculation of the diffuse reflection from a homogeneous scattering planetary atmosphere. The use of a new algorithm similar to the ''adding'' formula of Hansen and Travis extends the application of this formalism to an arbitrarily deep atmosphere. The basic idea for this algorithm is to consider a preceding calculation as a single state of a new Markov chain. Successive application of this procedure makes calculation possible for any optical depth without increasing the size of the linear system used. The time required for the algorithm is comparable to that for a doubling calculation for a homogeneous atmosphere, but for a non-homogeneous atmosphere the new method is considerably faster than the standard ''adding'' routine. As with he standard ''adding'' method, the information on the internal radiation field is lost during the calculation. This method retains the advantage of the earlier Markov chain method that the time required is relatively insensitive to the number of illumination angles or observation angles for which the diffuse reflection is calculated. A technical write-up giving fuller details of the algorithm and a sample code are available from the author

  9. Schmidt games and Markov partitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Jimmy

    2009-01-01

    Let T be a C 2 -expanding self-map of a compact, connected, C ∞ , Riemannian manifold M. We correct a minor gap in the proof of a theorem from the literature: the set of points whose forward orbits are nondense has full Hausdorff dimension. Our correction allows us to strengthen the theorem. Combining the correction with Schmidt games, we generalize the theorem in dimension one: given a point x 0 in M, the set of points whose forward orbit closures miss x 0 is a winning set. Finally, our key lemma, the no matching lemma, may be of independent interest in the theory of symbolic dynamics or the theory of Markov partitions

  10. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Rocio; Bertrand, Sophie; Tam, Jorge; Fablet, Ronan

    2013-01-01

    One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs). We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour), while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising) were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%), significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  11. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocio Joo

    Full Text Available One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs. We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs. They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour, while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%, significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  12. Switching Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, H. E.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Franzese, G.; Havlin, S.; Mallamace, F.; Mazza, M. G.; Kumar, P.; Plerou, V.; Preis, T.; Stokely, K.; Xu, L.

    One challenge of biology, medicine, and economics is that the systems treated by these serious scientific disciplines can suddenly "switch" from one behavior to another, even though they possess no perfect metronome in time. As if by magic, out of nothing but randomness one finds remarkably fine-tuned processes in time. The past century has, philosophically, been concerned with placing aside the human tendency to see the universe as a fine-tuned machine. Here we will address the challenge of uncovering how, through randomness (albeit, as we shall see, strongly correlated randomness), one can arrive at some of the many temporal patterns in physics, economics, and medicine and even begin to characterize the switching phenomena that enable a system to pass from one state to another. We discuss some applications of correlated randomness to understanding switching phenomena in various fields. Specifically, we present evidence from experiments and from computer simulations supporting the hypothesis that water's anomalies are related to a switching point (which is not unlike the "tipping point" immortalized by Malcolm Gladwell), and that the bubbles in economic phenomena that occur on all scales are not "outliers" (another Gladwell immortalization).

  13. Maximally reliable Markov chains under energy constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escola, Sean; Eisele, Michael; Miller, Kenneth; Paninski, Liam

    2009-07-01

    Signal-to-noise ratios in physical systems can be significantly degraded if the outputs of the systems are highly variable. Biological processes for which highly stereotyped signal generations are necessary features appear to have reduced their signal variabilities by employing multiple processing steps. To better understand why this multistep cascade structure might be desirable, we prove that the reliability of a signal generated by a multistate system with no memory (i.e., a Markov chain) is maximal if and only if the system topology is such that the process steps irreversibly through each state, with transition rates chosen such that an equal fraction of the total signal is generated in each state. Furthermore, our result indicates that by increasing the number of states, it is possible to arbitrarily increase the reliability of the system. In a physical system, however, an energy cost is associated with maintaining irreversible transitions, and this cost increases with the number of such transitions (i.e., the number of states). Thus, an infinite-length chain, which would be perfectly reliable, is infeasible. To model the effects of energy demands on the maximally reliable solution, we numerically optimize the topology under two distinct energy functions that penalize either irreversible transitions or incommunicability between states, respectively. In both cases, the solutions are essentially irreversible linear chains, but with upper bounds on the number of states set by the amount of available energy. We therefore conclude that a physical system for which signal reliability is important should employ a linear architecture, with the number of states (and thus the reliability) determined by the intrinsic energy constraints of the system.

  14. Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Chuffart

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.

  15. Markov chains models, algorithms and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K; Siu, Tak-Kuen

    2013-01-01

    This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data.This book consists of eight chapters.  Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods

  16. Markov chains analytic and Monte Carlo computations

    CERN Document Server

    Graham, Carl

    2014-01-01

    Markov Chains: Analytic and Monte Carlo Computations introduces the main notions related to Markov chains and provides explanations on how to characterize, simulate, and recognize them. Starting with basic notions, this book leads progressively to advanced and recent topics in the field, allowing the reader to master the main aspects of the classical theory. This book also features: Numerous exercises with solutions as well as extended case studies.A detailed and rigorous presentation of Markov chains with discrete time and state space.An appendix presenting probabilistic notions that are nec

  17. A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe

    Motivated by an original on-line page-ranking algorithm, starting from an arbitrary Markov chain $(C_n)$ on a discrete state space ${\\cal S}$, a Markov chain $(C_n,M_n)$ on the product space ${\\cal S}^2$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain

  18. Markov analysis of different standby computer based systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, G.; Guptan, Rajee; Mohan, Nalini; Ghadge, S.G.; Bajaj, S.S.

    2006-01-01

    As against the conventional triplicated systems of hardware and the generation of control signals for the actuator elements by means of redundant hardwired median circuits, employed in the early Indian PHWR's, a new approach of generating control signals based on software by a redundant system of computers is introduced in the advanced/current generation of Indian PHWR's. Reliability is increased by fault diagnostics and automatic switch over of all the loads to one computer in case of total failure of the other computer. Independent processing by a redundant CPU in each system enables inter-comparison to quickly identify system failure, in addition to the other self-diagnostic features provided. Combinatorial models such as reliability block diagrams and fault trees are frequently used to predict the reliability, maintainability and safety of complex systems. Unfortunately, these methods cannot accurately model dynamic system behavior; Because of its unique ability to handle dynamic cases, Markov analysis can be a powerful tool in the reliability maintainability and safety (RMS) analyses of dynamic systems. A Markov model breaks the system configuration into a number of states. Each of these states is connected to all other states by transition rates. It then utilizes transition matrices to evaluate the reliability and safety of the systems, either through matrix manipulation or other analytical solution methods, such as Laplace transforms. Thus, Markov analysis is a powerful reliability, maintainability and safety analysis tool. It allows the analyst to model complex, dynamic, highly distributed, fault tolerant systems that would otherwise be very difficult to model using classical techniques like the Fault tree method. The Dual Processor Hot Standby Process Control System (DPHS-PCS) and the Computerized Channel Temperature Monitoring System (CCTM) are typical examples of hot standby systems in the Indian PHWR's. While such systems currently in use in Indian PHWR

  19. Observation uncertainty in reversible Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzner, Philipp; Weber, Marcus; Schütte, Christof

    2010-09-01

    In many applications one is interested in finding a simplified model which captures the essential dynamical behavior of a real life process. If the essential dynamics can be assumed to be (approximately) memoryless then a reasonable choice for a model is a Markov model whose parameters are estimated by means of Bayesian inference from an observed time series. We propose an efficient Monte Carlo Markov chain framework to assess the uncertainty of the Markov model and related observables. The derived Gibbs sampler allows for sampling distributions of transition matrices subject to reversibility and/or sparsity constraints. The performance of the suggested sampling scheme is demonstrated and discussed for a variety of model examples. The uncertainty analysis of functions of the Markov model under investigation is discussed in application to the identification of conformations of the trialanine molecule via Robust Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+) .

  20. Generated dynamics of Markov and quantum processes

    CERN Document Server

    Janßen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This book presents Markov and quantum processes as two sides of a coin called generated stochastic processes. It deals with quantum processes as reversible stochastic processes generated by one-step unitary operators, while Markov processes are irreversible stochastic processes generated by one-step stochastic operators. The characteristic feature of quantum processes are oscillations, interference, lots of stationary states in bounded systems and possible asymptotic stationary scattering states in open systems, while the characteristic feature of Markov processes are relaxations to a single stationary state. Quantum processes apply to systems where all variables, that control reversibility, are taken as relevant variables, while Markov processes emerge when some of those variables cannot be followed and are thus irrelevant for the dynamic description. Their absence renders the dynamic irreversible. A further aim is to demonstrate that almost any subdiscipline of theoretical physics can conceptually be put in...

  1. Confluence reduction for Markov automata (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  2. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Ruth; Langrock, Roland

    2016-06-01

    We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process involves the assumption that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using, for example, a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example, on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  3. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  4. Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....

  5. Subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fagnola, Franco; Rebolledo, Rolando

    2002-01-01

    This article introduces a concept of subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup, in view of characterizing the support projection of a stationary state in terms of the semigroup generator. These results, together with those of our previous article [J. Math. Phys. 42, 1296 (2001)], lead to a method for proving the existence of faithful stationary states. This is often crucial in the analysis of ergodic properties of quantum Markov semigroups. The method is illustrated by applications to physical models

  6. Transition Effect Matrices and Quantum Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudder, Stan

    2009-06-01

    A transition effect matrix (TEM) is a quantum generalization of a classical stochastic matrix. By employing a TEM we obtain a quantum generalization of a classical Markov chain. We first discuss state and operator dynamics for a quantum Markov chain. We then consider various types of TEMs and vector states. In particular, we study invariant, equilibrium and singular vector states and investigate projective, bistochastic, invertible and unitary TEMs.

  7. A new switched power linac structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villa, F.

    1989-03-01

    A new pulse power structure has been described that utilizes an easily accessible rectilinear switch. The new structure is more ''forgiving'' (as far as risetime is concerned) than the radial line transformer, and contains fewer switching structures/unit length. The combination of the new structure with the switch proposed seems to offer interesting possibilities for a future linear collider. 13 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Markov Processes in Image Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

    2018-05-01

    Digital images are used as an information carrier in different sciences and technologies. The aspiration to increase the number of bits in the image pixels for the purpose of obtaining more information is observed. In the paper, some methods of compression and contour detection on the basis of two-dimensional Markov chain are offered. Increasing the number of bits on the image pixels will allow one to allocate fine object details more precisely, but it significantly complicates image processing. The methods of image processing do not concede by the efficiency to well-known analogues, but surpass them in processing speed. An image is separated into binary images, and processing is carried out in parallel with each without an increase in speed, when increasing the number of bits on the image pixels. One more advantage of methods is the low consumption of energy resources. Only logical procedures are used and there are no computing operations. The methods can be useful in processing images of any class and assignment in processing systems with a limited time and energy resources.

  9. Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Jadoon, Khan

    2016-08-08

    A substantial interpretation of electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements requires quantifying optimal model parameters and uncertainty of a nonlinear inverse problem. For this purpose, an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to assess multi-orientation and multi-offset EMI measurements in an agriculture field with non-saline and saline soil. In the MCMC simulations, posterior distribution was computed using Bayes rule. The electromagnetic forward model based on the full solution of Maxwell\\'s equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD mini-Explorer. The model parameters and uncertainty for the three-layered earth model are investigated by using synthetic data. Our results show that in the scenario of non-saline soil, the parameters of layer thickness are not well estimated as compared to layers electrical conductivity because layer thicknesses in the model exhibits a low sensitivity to the EMI measurements, and is hence difficult to resolve. Application of the proposed MCMC based inversion to the field measurements in a drip irrigation system demonstrate that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil, and provide useful insight about parameter uncertainty for the assessment of the model outputs.

  10. Fitting Hidden Markov Models to Psychological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Visser

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Markov models have been used extensively in psychology of learning. Applications of hidden Markov models are rare however. This is partially due to the fact that comprehensive statistics for model selection and model assessment are lacking in the psychological literature. We present model selection and model assessment statistics that are particularly useful in applying hidden Markov models in psychology. These statistics are presented and evaluated by simulation studies for a toy example. We compare AIC, BIC and related criteria and introduce a prediction error measure for assessing goodness-of-fit. In a simulation study, two methods of fitting equality constraints are compared. In two illustrative examples with experimental data we apply selection criteria, fit models with constraints and assess goodness-of-fit. First, data from a concept identification task is analyzed. Hidden Markov models provide a flexible approach to analyzing such data when compared to other modeling methods. Second, a novel application of hidden Markov models in implicit learning is presented. Hidden Markov models are used in this context to quantify knowledge that subjects express in an implicit learning task. This method of analyzing implicit learning data provides a comprehensive approach for addressing important theoretical issues in the field.

  11. Synchronization in complex networks with switching topology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Lei; Wang, Qing-guo

    2011-01-01

    This Letter investigates synchronization issues of complex dynamical networks with switching topology. By constructing a common Lyapunov function, we show that local and global synchronization for a linearly coupled network with switching topology can be evaluated by the time average of second smallest eigenvalues corresponding to the Laplacians of switching topology. This result is quite powerful and can be further used to explore various switching cases for complex dynamical networks. Numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results in the end. -- Highlights: → Synchronization of complex networks with switching topology is investigated. → A common Lyapunov function is established for synchronization of switching network. → The common Lyapunov function is not necessary to monotonically decrease with time. → Synchronization is determined by the second smallest eigenvalue of its Laplacian. → Synchronization criterion can be used to investigate various switching cases.

  12. Canonical Structure and Orthogonality of Forces and Currents in Irreversible Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Marcus; Jack, Robert L.; Zimmer, Johannes

    2018-03-01

    We discuss a canonical structure that provides a unifying description of dynamical large deviations for irreversible finite state Markov chains (continuous time), Onsager theory, and Macroscopic Fluctuation Theory (MFT). For Markov chains, this theory involves a non-linear relation between probability currents and their conjugate forces. Within this framework, we show how the forces can be split into two components, which are orthogonal to each other, in a generalised sense. This splitting allows a decomposition of the pathwise rate function into three terms, which have physical interpretations in terms of dissipation and convergence to equilibrium. Similar decompositions hold for rate functions at level 2 and level 2.5. These results clarify how bounds on entropy production and fluctuation theorems emerge from the underlying dynamical rules. We discuss how these results for Markov chains are related to similar structures within MFT, which describes hydrodynamic limits of such microscopic models.

  13. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines using Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Velazquez, J.C.; Caleyo, F.; Hallen, J.M.; Araujo, J.E. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional (IPN), Mexico D.F. (Mexico). Escuela Superior de Ingenieria Quimica e Industrias Extractivas (ESIQIE); Valor, A. [Universidad de La Habana, La Habana (Cuba)

    2009-07-01

    A non-homogenous, linear growth (pure birth) Markov process, with discrete states in continuous time, has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The transition probability function for the pit depth is obtained from the analytical solution of the forward Kolmogorov equations for this process. The parameters of the transition probability function between depth states can be identified from the observed time evolution of the mean of the pit depth distribution. Monte Carlo simulations were used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution in soils with different physicochemical characteristics. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov-chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion from the observed properties of the soil in contact with the pipeline. Real- life case studies, involving simulated and measured pit depth distributions are presented to illustrate the application of the proposed Markov chains model. (author)

  14. Dimensional Reduction for the General Markov Model on Phylogenetic Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jeremy G

    2017-03-01

    We present a method of dimensional reduction for the general Markov model of sequence evolution on a phylogenetic tree. We show that taking certain linear combinations of the associated random variables (site pattern counts) reduces the dimensionality of the model from exponential in the number of extant taxa, to quadratic in the number of taxa, while retaining the ability to statistically identify phylogenetic divergence events. A key feature is the identification of an invariant subspace which depends only bilinearly on the model parameters, in contrast to the usual multi-linear dependence in the full space. We discuss potential applications including the computation of split (edge) weights on phylogenetic trees from observed sequence data.

  15. Solution of the Markov chain for the dead time problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degweker, S.B.

    1997-01-01

    A method for solving the equation for the Markov chain, describing the effect of a non-extendible dead time on the statistics of time correlated pulses, is discussed. The equation, which was derived in an earlier paper, describes a non-linear process and is not amenable to exact solution. The present method consists of representing the probability generating function as a factorial cumulant expansion and neglecting factorial cumulants beyond the second. This results in a closed set of non-linear equations for the factorial moments. Stationary solutions of these equations, which are of interest for calculating the count rate, are obtained iteratively. The method is applied to the variable dead time counter technique for estimation of system parameters in passive neutron assay of Pu and reactor noise analysis. Comparisons of results by this method with Monte Carlo calculations are presented. (author)

  16. Road maintenance optimization through a discrete-time semi-Markov decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xueqing; Gao Hui

    2012-01-01

    Optimization models are necessary for efficient and cost-effective maintenance of a road network. In this regard, road deterioration is commonly modeled as a discrete-time Markov process such that an optimal maintenance policy can be obtained based on the Markov decision process, or as a renewal process such that an optimal maintenance policy can be obtained based on the renewal theory. However, the discrete-time Markov process cannot capture the real time at which the state transits while the renewal process considers only one state and one maintenance action. In this paper, road deterioration is modeled as a semi-Markov process in which the state transition has the Markov property and the holding time in each state is assumed to follow a discrete Weibull distribution. Based on this semi-Markov process, linear programming models are formulated for both infinite and finite planning horizons in order to derive optimal maintenance policies to minimize the life-cycle cost of a road network. A hypothetical road network is used to illustrate the application of the proposed optimization models. The results indicate that these linear programming models are practical for the maintenance of a road network having a large number of road segments and that they are convenient to incorporate various constraints on the decision process, for example, performance requirements and available budgets. Although the optimal maintenance policies obtained for the road network are randomized stationary policies, the extent of this randomness in decision making is limited. The maintenance actions are deterministic for most states and the randomness in selecting actions occurs only for a few states.

  17. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  18. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different

  19. Performance Modeling of Communication Networks with Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Mo, Jeonghoon

    2010-01-01

    This book is an introduction to Markov chain modeling with applications to communication networks. It begins with a general introduction to performance modeling in Chapter 1 where we introduce different performance models. We then introduce basic ideas of Markov chain modeling: Markov property, discrete time Markov chain (DTMe and continuous time Markov chain (CTMe. We also discuss how to find the steady state distributions from these Markov chains and how they can be used to compute the system performance metric. The solution methodologies include a balance equation technique, limiting probab

  20. A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...... with the higher mean and lower variance; bull market duration is found to be negatively dependent on short-term interest rates and positively on the interest rate spread, while bear market duration depends positively the short-term interest rate and negatively on the interest rate spread....

  1. Switched-mode power supply apparatus and method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2013-01-01

    The present invention relates to a switched-mode power supply apparatus and a corresponding method. For an effective compensation of non-linearities caused by dead- time and voltage drops in the switching power amplifier of the apparatus, an apparatus is proposed comprising a switching power

  2. Switched-mode power supply apparatus and method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2013-01-01

    The present invention relates to a switched-mode power supply apparatus and a corresponding method. For an effective compensation of non-linearities caused by dead-time and voltage drops in the switching power amplifier of the apparatus, an apparatus is proposed comprising a switching power

  3. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  4. Markov and mixed models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard

    This thesis deals with mathematical and statistical models with focus on applications in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling. These models are today an important aspect of the drug development in the pharmaceutical industry and continued research in statistical methodology within...... or uncontrollable factors in an individual. Modelling using SDEs also provides new tools for estimation of unknown inputs to a system and is illustrated with an application to estimation of insulin secretion rates in diabetic patients. Models for the eect of a drug is a broader area since drugs may affect...... for non-parametric estimation of Markov processes are proposed to give a detailed description of the sleep process during the night. Statistically the Markov models considered for sleep states are closely related to the PK models based on SDEs as both models share the Markov property. When the models...

  5. Consistent Estimation of Partition Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús E. García

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Partition Markov Model characterizes the process by a partition L of the state space, where the elements in each part of L share the same transition probability to an arbitrary element in the alphabet. This model aims to answer the following questions: what is the minimal number of parameters needed to specify a Markov chain and how to estimate these parameters. In order to answer these questions, we build a consistent strategy for model selection which consist of: giving a size n realization of the process, finding a model within the Partition Markov class, with a minimal number of parts to represent the process law. From the strategy, we derive a measure that establishes a metric in the state space. In addition, we show that if the law of the process is Markovian, then, eventually, when n goes to infinity, L will be retrieved. We show an application to model internet navigation patterns.

  6. New stability and stabilization for switched neutral control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong Lianglin; Zhong Shouming; Ye Mao; Wu Shiliang

    2009-01-01

    This paper concerns stability and stabilization issues for switched neutral systems and presents new classes of piecewise Lyapunov functionals and multiple Lyapunov functionals, based on which, two new switching rules are introduced to stabilize the neutral systems. One switching rule is designed from the solution of the so-called Lyapunov-Metzler linear matrix inequalities. The other is based on the determination of average dwell time computed from a new class of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). And then, state-feedback control is derived for the switched neutral control system mainly based on the state switching rules. Finally, three examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Markov decision processes in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Sigaud, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a mathematical framework for modeling sequential decision problems under uncertainty as well as Reinforcement Learning problems. Written by experts in the field, this book provides a global view of current research using MDPs in Artificial Intelligence. It starts with an introductory presentation of the fundamental aspects of MDPs (planning in MDPs, Reinforcement Learning, Partially Observable MDPs, Markov games and the use of non-classical criteria). Then it presents more advanced research trends in the domain and gives some concrete examples using illustr

  8. Markov bridges, bisection and variance reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Hobolth, Asger

    . In this paper we firstly consider the problem of generating sample paths from a continuous-time Markov chain conditioned on the endpoints using a new algorithm based on the idea of bisection. Secondly we study the potential of the bisection algorithm for variance reduction. In particular, examples are presented......Time-continuous Markov jump processes is a popular modelling tool in disciplines ranging from computational finance and operations research to human genetics and genomics. The data is often sampled at discrete points in time, and it can be useful to simulate sample paths between the datapoints...

  9. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Emil Banning; Møller, Jan K.; Morales, Juan Miguel

    2017-01-01

    . Specifically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is defined by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip, and is justified due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is fitted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  10. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Morales González, Juan Miguel

    . Specically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is dened by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip and is justied due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is tted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  11. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  12. Markov processes an introduction for physical scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Gillespie, Daniel T

    1991-01-01

    Markov process theory is basically an extension of ordinary calculus to accommodate functions whos time evolutions are not entirely deterministic. It is a subject that is becoming increasingly important for many fields of science. This book develops the single-variable theory of both continuous and jump Markov processes in a way that should appeal especially to physicists and chemists at the senior and graduate level.Key Features* A self-contained, prgamatic exposition of the needed elements of random variable theory* Logically integrated derviations of the Chapman-Kolmogorov e

  13. Detecting critical state before phase transition of complex biological systems by hidden Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pei; Liu, Rui; Li, Yongjun; Chen, Luonan

    2016-07-15

    Identifying the critical state or pre-transition state just before the occurrence of a phase transition is a challenging task, because the state of the system may show little apparent change before this critical transition during the gradual parameter variations. Such dynamics of phase transition is generally composed of three stages, i.e. before-transition state, pre-transition state and after-transition state, which can be considered as three different Markov processes. By exploring the rich dynamical information provided by high-throughput data, we present a novel computational method, i.e. hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach, to detect the switching point of the two Markov processes from the before-transition state (a stationary Markov process) to the pre-transition state (a time-varying Markov process), thereby identifying the pre-transition state or early-warning signals of the phase transition. To validate the effectiveness, we apply this method to detect the signals of the imminent phase transitions of complex systems based on the simulated datasets, and further identify the pre-transition states as well as their critical modules for three real datasets, i.e. the acute lung injury triggered by phosgene inhalation, MCF-7 human breast cancer caused by heregulin and HCV-induced dysplasia and hepatocellular carcinoma. Both functional and pathway enrichment analyses validate the computational results. The source code and some supporting files are available at https://github.com/rabbitpei/HMM_based-method lnchen@sibs.ac.cn or liyj@scut.edu.cn Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its ... the earth from the clouds. The usual ... Rainfall modelling and ... Markov Models have become popular tools ... environment sciences, University of Jos, plateau state,.

  15. Extending Markov Automata with State and Action Rewards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guck, Dennis; Timmer, Mark; Blom, Stefan; Bertrand, N.; Bortolussi, L.

    This presentation introduces the Markov Reward Automaton (MRA), an extension of the Markov automaton that allows the modelling of systems incorporating rewards in addition to nondeterminism, discrete probabilistic choice and continuous stochastic timing. Our models support both rewards that are

  16. Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

  17. Regime switches in the risk-return trade-off

    OpenAIRE

    Marcellino, Massimiliano; Ghysels, Eric; Guerin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the intuitive positive ...

  18. Stabilization Strategies of Supply Networks with Stochastic Switched Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukai Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamical supply networks model with stochastic switched topology is presented, in which the stochastic switched topology is dependent on a continuous time Markov process. The goal is to design the state-feedback control strategies to stabilize the dynamical supply networks. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, sufficient conditions for the existence of state feedback control strategies are given in terms of matrix inequalities, which ensure the robust stability of the supply networks at the stationary states and a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level with respect to the uncertain demand. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. Perturbation theory for Markov chains via Wasserstein distance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rudolf, Daniel; Schweizer, Nikolaus

    2017-01-01

    Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question of how small differences in the transition probabilities of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the nth step distributions of two Markov chains

  20. Switched on!

    CERN Multimedia

    2008-01-01

    Like a star arriving on stage, impatiently followed by each member of CERN personnel and by millions of eyes around the world, the first beam of protons has circulated in the LHC. After years in the making and months of increasing anticipation, today the work of hundreds of people has borne fruit. WELL DONE to all! Successfully steered around the 27 kilometres of the world’s most powerful particle accelerator at 10:28 this morning, this first beam of protons circulating in the ring marks a key moment in the transition from over two decades of preparation to a new era of scientific discovery. "It’s a fantastic moment," said the LHC project leader Lyn Evans, "we can now look forward to a new era of understanding about the origins and evolution of the universe". Starting up a major new particle accelerator takes much more than flipping a switch. Thousands of individual elements have to work in harmony, timings have to be synchronize...

  1. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-19

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  2. Markov Random Fields on Triangle Meshes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Vedrana; Aanæs, Henrik; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a novel anisotropic smoothing scheme based on Markov Random Fields (MRF). Our scheme is formulated as two coupled processes. A vertex process is used to smooth the mesh by displacing the vertices according to a MRF smoothness prior, while an independent edge process label...

  3. A Martingale Decomposition of Discrete Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard

    We consider a multivariate time series whose increments are given from a homogeneous Markov chain. We show that the martingale component of this process can be extracted by a filtering method and establish the corresponding martingale decomposition in closed-form. This representation is useful fo...

  4. Renewal characterization of Markov modulated Poisson processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel F. Neuts

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available A Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP M(t defined on a Markov chain J(t is a pure jump process where jumps of M(t occur according to a Poisson process with intensity λi whenever the Markov chain J(t is in state i. M(t is called strongly renewal (SR if M(t is a renewal process for an arbitrary initial probability vector of J(t with full support on P={i:λi>0}. M(t is called weakly renewal (WR if there exists an initial probability vector of J(t such that the resulting MMPP is a renewal process. The purpose of this paper is to develop general characterization theorems for the class SR and some sufficiency theorems for the class WR in terms of the first passage times of the bivariate Markov chain [J(t,M(t]. Relevance to the lumpability of J(t is also studied.

  5. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  6. Bayesian analysis for reversible Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diaconis, P.; Rolles, S.W.W.

    2006-01-01

    We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from Pólya’s urn. We give closed form normalizing constants, a simple

  7. Bisimulation and Simulation Relations for Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baier, Christel; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.; Wolf, Verena; Aceto, L.; Gordon, A.

    2006-01-01

    Formal notions of bisimulation and simulation relation play a central role for any kind of process algebra. This short paper sketches the main concepts for bisimulation and simulation relations for probabilistic systems, modelled by discrete- or continuous-time Markov chains.

  8. Discounted Markov games : generalized policy iteration method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, van der J.

    1978-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two-person zero-sum discounted Markov games with finite state and action spaces. We show that the Newton-Raphson or policy iteration method as presented by Pollats-chek and Avi-Itzhak does not necessarily converge, contradicting a proof of Rao, Chandrasekaran, and Nair.

  9. Hidden Markov Models for Human Genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Yves

    1997-01-01

    We analyse the sequential structure of human genomic DNA by hidden Markov models. We apply models of widely different design: conventional left-right constructs and models with a built-in periodic architecture. The models are trained on segments of DNA sequences extracted such that they cover com...

  10. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  11. Revisiting Weak Simulation for Substochastic Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, David N.; Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun

    2013-01-01

    of the logic PCTL\\x, and its completeness was conjectured. We revisit this result and show that soundness does not hold in general, but only for Markov chains without divergence. It is refuted for some systems with substochastic distributions. Moreover, we provide a counterexample to completeness...

  12. Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Crack Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard

    1991-01-01

    propagation process can be described by a discrete space Markov theory. The model is applicable to deterministic as well as to random loading. Once the model parameters for a given material have been determined, the results can be used for any structure as soon as the geometrical function is known....

  13. Multi-dimensional quasitoeplitz Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander N. Dudin

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with multi-dimensional quasitoeplitz Markov chains. We establish a sufficient equilibrium condition and derive a functional matrix equation for the corresponding vector-generating function, whose solution is given algorithmically. The results are demonstrated in the form of examples and applications in queues with BMAP-input, which operate in synchronous random environment.

  14. Markov chains with quasitoeplitz transition matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander M. Dukhovny

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a class of Markov chains which are frequently encountered in various applications (e.g. queueing systems, dams and inventories with feedback. Generating functions of transient and steady state probabilities are found by solving a special Riemann boundary value problem on the unit circle. A criterion of ergodicity is established.

  15. Markov Chain Estimation of Avian Seasonal Fecundity

    Science.gov (United States)

    To explore the consequences of modeling decisions on inference about avian seasonal fecundity we generalize previous Markov chain (MC) models of avian nest success to formulate two different MC models of avian seasonal fecundity that represent two different ways to model renestin...

  16. Noise can speed convergence in Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzke, Brandon; Kosko, Bart

    2011-10-01

    A new theorem shows that noise can speed convergence to equilibrium in discrete finite-state Markov chains. The noise applies to the state density and helps the Markov chain explore improbable regions of the state space. The theorem ensures that a stochastic-resonance noise benefit exists for states that obey a vector-norm inequality. Such noise leads to faster convergence because the noise reduces the norm components. A corollary shows that a noise benefit still occurs if the system states obey an alternate norm inequality. This leads to a noise-benefit algorithm that requires knowledge of the steady state. An alternative blind algorithm uses only past state information to achieve a weaker noise benefit. Simulations illustrate the predicted noise benefits in three well-known Markov models. The first model is a two-parameter Ehrenfest diffusion model that shows how noise benefits can occur in the class of birth-death processes. The second model is a Wright-Fisher model of genotype drift in population genetics. The third model is a chemical reaction network of zeolite crystallization. A fourth simulation shows a convergence rate increase of 64% for states that satisfy the theorem and an increase of 53% for states that satisfy the corollary. A final simulation shows that even suboptimal noise can speed convergence if the noise applies over successive time cycles. Noise benefits tend to be sharpest in Markov models that do not converge quickly and that do not have strong absorbing states.

  17. Model Checking Infinite-State Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Cloth, L.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper algorithms for model checking CSL (continuous stochastic logic) against infinite-state continuous-time Markov chains of so-called quasi birth-death type are developed. In doing so we extend the applicability of CSL model checking beyond the recently proposed case for finite-state

  18. Model Checking Markov Chains: Techniques and Tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zapreev, I.S.

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation deals with four important aspects of model checking Markov chains: the development of efficient model-checking tools, the improvement of model-checking algorithms, the efficiency of the state-space reduction techniques, and the development of simulation-based model-checking

  19. Nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Silvestrov, Dmitrii

    2017-01-01

    The book presents new methods of asymptotic analysis for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with a finite phase space. These methods are based on special time-space screening procedures for sequential phase space reduction of semi-Markov processes combined with the systematical use of operational calculus for Laurent asymptotic expansions. Effective recurrent algorithms are composed for getting asymptotic expansions, without and with explicit upper bounds for remainders, for power moments of hitting times, stationary and conditional quasi-stationary distributions for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes. These results are illustrated by asymptotic expansions for birth-death-type semi-Markov processes, which play an important role in various applications. The book will be a useful contribution to the continuing intensive studies in the area. It is an essential reference for theoretical and applied researchers in the field of stochastic processes and their applications that will cont...

  20. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  1. Markov chain of distances between parked cars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seba, Petr

    2008-01-01

    We describe the distribution of distances between parked cars as a solution of certain Markov processes and show that its solution is obtained with the help of a distributional fixed point equation. Under certain conditions the process is solved explicitly. The resulting probability density is compared with the actual parking data measured in the city. (fast track communication)

  2. Continuity Properties of Distances for Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Mao, Hua; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we investigate distance functions on finite state Markov processes that measure the behavioural similarity of non-bisimilar processes. We consider both probabilistic bisimilarity metrics, and trace-based distances derived from standard Lp and Kullback-Leibler distances. Two desirable...

  3. Model Checking Structured Infinite Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid

    2008-01-01

    In the past probabilistic model checking hast mostly been restricted to finite state models. This thesis explores the possibilities of model checking with continuous stochastic logic (CSL) on infinite-state Markov chains. We present an in-depth treatment of model checking algorithms for two special

  4. Hidden Markov models for labeled sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1994-01-01

    A hidden Markov model for labeled observations, called a class HMM, is introduced and a maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Instead of training it to model the statistics of the training sequences it is trained to optimize recognition. It resembles MMI...

  5. Efficient Modelling and Generation of Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koutny, M.; Timmer, Mark; Ulidowski, I.; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    This paper introduces a framework for the efficient modelling and generation of Markov automata. It consists of (1) the data-rich process-algebraic language MAPA, allowing concise modelling of systems with nondeterminism, probability and Markovian timing; (2) a restricted form of the language, the

  6. A Metrized Duality Theorem for Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozen, Dexter; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Panangaden, Prakash

    2014-01-01

    We extend our previous duality theorem for Markov processes by equipping the processes with a pseudometric and the algebras with a notion of metric diameter. We are able to show that the isomorphisms of our previous duality theorem become isometries in this quantitative setting. This opens the wa...

  7. Slew Rate Induced Distortion in Switched-Resistor Integrators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiraseree-Amornkun, A.; Jiraseree-amornkun, A.; Worapishet, A.; Klumperink, Eric A.M.; Nauta, Bram; Surakampontorn, W.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract—OPAMP-RC integrators built with linear resistors and capacitors can achieve very high linearity. By means of a switched resistor, tuning of the RC time-constant is possible via the duty-cycle of the clock controlling the switched resistor. This paper analyzes the effect of OPAMP slew rate

  8. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  9. Digital switched hydraulics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Min; Plummer, Andrew

    2018-06-01

    This paper reviews recent developments in digital switched hydraulics particularly the switched inertance hydraulic systems (SIHSs). The performance of SIHSs is presented in brief with a discussion of several possible configurations and control strategies. The soft switching technology and high-speed switching valve design techniques are discussed. Challenges and recommendations are given based on the current research achievements.

  10. Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Portfolio Games under a Markovian Regime Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoqun Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a nonzero-sum stochastic differential portfolio game problem in a continuous-time Markov regime switching environment when the price dynamics of the risky assets are governed by a Markov-modulated geometric Brownian motion (GBM. The market parameters, including the bank interest rate and the appreciation and volatility rates of the risky assets, switch over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain. We formulate the nonzero-sum stochastic differential portfolio game problem as two utility maximization problems of the sum process between two investors’ terminal wealth. We derive a pair of regime switching Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equations and two systems of coupled HJB equations at different regimes. We obtain explicit optimal portfolio strategies and Feynman-Kac representations of the two value functions. Furthermore, we solve the system of coupled HJB equations explicitly in a special case where there are only two states in the Markov chain. Finally we provide comparative statics and numerical simulation analysis of optimal portfolio strategies and investigate the impact of regime switching on optimal portfolio strategies.

  11. Belief Bisimulation for Hidden Markov Models Logical Characterisation and Decision Algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, David N.; Nielson, Flemming; Zhang, Lijun

    2012-01-01

    This paper establishes connections between logical equivalences and bisimulation relations for hidden Markov models (HMM). Both standard and belief state bisimulations are considered. We also present decision algorithms for the bisimilarities. For standard bisimilarity, an extension of the usual...... partition refinement algorithm is enough. Belief bisimilarity, being a relation on the continuous space of belief states, cannot be described directly. Instead, we show how to generate a linear equation system in time cubic in the number of states....

  12. A new fuzzy Monte Carlo method for solving SLAE with ergodic fuzzy Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Gharehdaghi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we introduce a new fuzzy Monte Carlo method for solving system of linear algebraic equations (SLAE over the possibility theory and max-min algebra. To solve the SLAE, we first define a fuzzy estimator and prove that this is an unbiased estimator of the solution. To prove unbiasedness, we apply the ergodic fuzzy Markov chains. This new approach works even for cases with coefficients matrix with a norm greater than one.

  13. Markov Chain model for the stochastic behaviors of wind-direction data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masseran, Nurulkamal

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • I develop a Markov chain model to describe about the stochastic and probabilistic behaviors of wind direction data. • I describe some of the theoretical arguments regarding the Markov chain model in term of wind direction data. • I suggest a limiting probabilities approach to determine a dominant directions of wind blow. - Abstract: Analyzing the behaviors of wind direction can complement knowledge concerning wind speed and help researchers draw conclusions regarding wind energy potential. Knowledge of the wind’s direction enables the wind turbine to be positioned in such a way as to maximize the total amount of captured energy and optimize the wind farm’s performance. In this paper, first-order and higher-order Markov chain models are proposed to describe the probabilistic behaviors of wind-direction data. A case study is conducted using data from Mersing, Malaysia. The wind-direction data are classified according to an eight-state Markov chain based on natural geographical directions. The model’s parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the linear programming formulation. Several theoretical arguments regarding the model are also discussed. Finally, limiting probabilities are used to determine a long-run proportion of the wind directions generated. The results explain the dominant direction for Mersing’s wind in terms of probability metrics

  14. Instability in time-delayed switched systems induced by fast and random switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yao; Lin, Wei; Chen, Yuming; Wu, Jianhong

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we consider a switched system comprising finitely or infinitely many subsystems described by linear time-delayed differential equations and a rule that orchestrates the system switching randomly among these subsystems, where the switching times are also randomly chosen. We first construct a counterintuitive example where even though all the time-delayed subsystems are exponentially stable, the behaviors of the randomly switched system change from stable dynamics to unstable dynamics with a decrease of the dwell time. Then by using the theories of stochastic processes and delay differential equations, we present a general result on when this fast and random switching induced instability should occur and we extend this to the case of nonlinear time-delayed switched systems as well.

  15. Subnanosecond photoconductive switching in GaAs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, R.L.; Pocha, M.D.; Griffin, K.L.

    1991-04-01

    We are conducting research in photoconductive switching for the purpose of generating microwave pulses with amplitudes up to 50 kV. This technology has direct application to impulse radar and HPM sources. We are exploiting the very fast recombination rates of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) to explore the potential of GaAs as an on-off switch when operating in the linear mode (the linear mode is defined such that one carrier pair is generated for each photon absorbed). In addition, we are exploring the potential GaAs to act as a closing switch in ``avalanche`` mode at high fields. We have observed switch closing times of less than 200 psec with a 100 psec duration laser pulse and opening times of less than 400 psec with neutron irradiated GaAs at fields of tens of kV/cm. If the field is increased and the laser energy decreased, the laser can be used to trigger photoconductive switches into ``avalanche`` mode of operation in which carrier multiplication occurs. This mode of operation is quite promising since the switches close in less than 1 nsec while realizing significant energy gain (ratio of electrical energy in the pulse to optical trigger energy). We are currently investigating both large area (1 sq cm) and small area (< 1 sq mm) switches illuminated by GaAlAs laser diodes at 900 nm and Nd:YAG lasers at 1.06 micrometers. Preliminary results indicate that the closing time of the avalanche switches depends primarily on the material properties of the devices with closing times of 300--1300 psec at voltages of 6--35 kV. We will present experimental results for linear, lock on and avalanche mode operation of GaAs photoconductive switches and how these pulses may be applied to microwave generation. 3 refs.

  16. Subnanosecond photoconductive switching in GaAs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, R.L.; Pocha, M.D.; Griffin, K.L.

    1991-04-01

    We are conducting research in photoconductive switching for the purpose of generating microwave pulses with amplitudes up to 50 kV. This technology has direct application to impulse radar and HPM sources. We are exploiting the very fast recombination rates of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) to explore the potential of GaAs as an on-off switch when operating in the linear mode (the linear mode is defined such that one carrier pair is generated for each photon absorbed). In addition, we are exploring the potential GaAs to act as a closing switch in avalanche'' mode at high fields. We have observed switch closing times of less than 200 psec with a 100 psec duration laser pulse and opening times of less than 400 psec with neutron irradiated GaAs at fields of tens of kV/cm. If the field is increased and the laser energy decreased, the laser can be used to trigger photoconductive switches into avalanche'' mode of operation in which carrier multiplication occurs. This mode of operation is quite promising since the switches close in less than 1 nsec while realizing significant energy gain (ratio of electrical energy in the pulse to optical trigger energy). We are currently investigating both large area (1 sq cm) and small area (< 1 sq mm) switches illuminated by GaAlAs laser diodes at 900 nm and Nd:YAG lasers at 1.06 micrometers. Preliminary results indicate that the closing time of the avalanche switches depends primarily on the material properties of the devices with closing times of 300--1300 psec at voltages of 6--35 kV. We will present experimental results for linear, lock on and avalanche mode operation of GaAs photoconductive switches and how these pulses may be applied to microwave generation. 3 refs.

  17. Subnanosecond photoconductive switching in GaAs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, R.L.; Pocha, M.D.; Griffin, K.L.

    1990-01-01

    We are conducting research in photoconductive switching for the purpose of generating microwave pulses with amplitudes up to 50 kV. This technology has direct application to impulse radar and HPM sources. We are exploiting the very fast recombination rates of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) to explore the potential of GaAs as an on-off switch when operating in the linear mode (the linear mode is defined such that one carrier pair is generated for each photon absorbed). In addition, we are exploring the potential of GaAs to act as a closing switch in avalanche'' mode at high fields. We have observed switch closing times of less than 200 psec with 100 psec duration laser pulse and opening times of less than 400 psec with neutron irradiated GaAs at fields of tens of kV/cm. If the field is increased and the laser energy decreased, the laser can be used to trigger photoconductive switches into an avalanche'' mode of operation in which carrier multiplication occurs. This mode of operation is quite promising since the switches close in less than 1 nsec while realizing significant energy gain (ratio of electrical energy in the pulse to optical trigger energy). We are currently investigating both large are (1 sq cm) and small area (<1 sq mm) switches illuminated by GaAlAs laser diodes at 900 nm and Nd:YAG lasers at 1.06 micrometers. Preliminary results indicate that the closing time of the avalanche switches depends primarily on the material properties of the devices with closing times of 300--1300 psec at voltages of 6-35 kV. We will present experimental results for linear, lock on and avalanche mode operation of GaAs photoconductive switches and how these pulses may be applied to microwave generation. 3 refs., 11 figs.

  18. Subnanosecond photoconductive switching in GaAs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druce, R. L.; Pocha, M. D.; Griffin, K. L.

    1991-04-01

    We are conducting research in photoconductive switching for the purpose of generating microwave pulses with amplitudes up to 50 kV. This technology has direct application to impulse radar and HPM sources. We are exploiting the very fast recombination rates of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) to explore the potential of GaAs as an on-off switch when operating in the linear mode (the linear mode is defined such that one carrier pair is generated for each photon absorbed). In addition, we are exploring the potential GaAs to act as a closing switch in 'avalanche' mode at high fields. We have observed switch closing times of less than 200 psec with a 100 psec duration laser pulse and opening times of less than 400 psec with neutron irradiated GaAs at fields of tens of kV/cm. If the field is increased and the laser energy decreased, the laser can be used to trigger photoconductive switches into 'avalanche' mode of operation in which carrier multiplication occurs. This mode of operation is quite promising since the switches close in less than 1 nsec while realizing significant energy gain (ratio of electrical energy in the pulse to optical trigger energy). We are currently investigating both large area (1 sq cm) and small area (less than 1 sq mm) switches illuminated by GaAlAs laser diodes at 900 nm and Nd:YAG lasers at 1.06 micrometers. Preliminary results indicate that the closing time of the avalanche switches depends primarily on the material properties of the devices with closing times of 300-1300 psec at voltages of 6-35 kV. We will present experimental results for linear, lock on, and avalanche mode operation of GaAs photoconductive switches and how these pulses may be applied to microwave generation.

  19. Nuclear security assessment with Markov model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear security risk assessment with the Markov model based on random event is performed to explore evaluation methodology for physical protection in nuclear facilities. Because the security incidences are initiated by malicious and intentional acts, expert judgment and Bayes updating are used to estimate scenario and initiation likelihood, and it is assumed that the Markov model derived from stochastic process can be applied to incidence sequence. Both an unauthorized intrusion as Design Based Threat (DBT) and a stand-off attack as beyond-DBT are assumed to hypothetical facilities, and performance of physical protection and mitigation and minimization of consequence are investigated to develop the assessment methodology in a semi-quantitative manner. It is shown that cooperation between facility operator and security authority is important to respond to the beyond-DBT incidence. (author)

  20. An interlacing theorem for reversible Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grone, Robert; Salamon, Peter; Hoffmann, Karl Heinz

    2008-01-01

    Reversible Markov chains are an indispensable tool in the modeling of a vast class of physical, chemical, biological and statistical problems. Examples include the master equation descriptions of relaxing physical systems, stochastic optimization algorithms such as simulated annealing, chemical dynamics of protein folding and Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical estimation. Very often the large size of the state spaces requires the coarse graining or lumping of microstates into fewer mesoscopic states, and a question of utmost importance for the validity of the physical model is how the eigenvalues of the corresponding stochastic matrix change under this operation. In this paper we prove an interlacing theorem which gives explicit bounds on the eigenvalues of the lumped stochastic matrix. (fast track communication)

  1. An interlacing theorem for reversible Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grone, Robert; Salamon, Peter [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182-7720 (United States); Hoffmann, Karl Heinz [Institut fuer Physik, Technische Universitaet Chemnitz, D-09107 Chemnitz (Germany)

    2008-05-30

    Reversible Markov chains are an indispensable tool in the modeling of a vast class of physical, chemical, biological and statistical problems. Examples include the master equation descriptions of relaxing physical systems, stochastic optimization algorithms such as simulated annealing, chemical dynamics of protein folding and Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical estimation. Very often the large size of the state spaces requires the coarse graining or lumping of microstates into fewer mesoscopic states, and a question of utmost importance for the validity of the physical model is how the eigenvalues of the corresponding stochastic matrix change under this operation. In this paper we prove an interlacing theorem which gives explicit bounds on the eigenvalues of the lumped stochastic matrix. (fast track communication)

  2. Stochastic Dynamics through Hierarchically Embedded Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Fernando P; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

    2017-02-03

    Studying dynamical phenomena in finite populations often involves Markov processes of significant mathematical and/or computational complexity, which rapidly becomes prohibitive with increasing population size or an increasing number of individual configuration states. Here, we develop a framework that allows us to define a hierarchy of approximations to the stationary distribution of general systems that can be described as discrete Markov processes with time invariant transition probabilities and (possibly) a large number of states. This results in an efficient method for studying social and biological communities in the presence of stochastic effects-such as mutations in evolutionary dynamics and a random exploration of choices in social systems-including situations where the dynamics encompasses the existence of stable polymorphic configurations, thus overcoming the limitations of existing methods. The present formalism is shown to be general in scope, widely applicable, and of relevance to a variety of interdisciplinary problems.

  3. Exact solution of the hidden Markov processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, David B.

    2017-11-01

    We write a master equation for the distributions related to hidden Markov processes (HMPs) and solve it using a functional equation. Thus the solution of HMPs is mapped exactly to the solution of the functional equation. For a general case the latter can be solved only numerically. We derive an exact expression for the entropy of HMPs. Our expression for the entropy is an alternative to the ones given before by the solution of integral equations. The exact solution is possible because actually the model can be considered as a generalized random walk on a one-dimensional strip. While we give the solution for the two second-order matrices, our solution can be easily generalized for the L values of the Markov process and M values of observables: We should be able to solve a system of L functional equations in the space of dimension M -1 .

  4. Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo

    CERN Document Server

    Brooks, Steve

    2011-01-01

    ""Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo"" brings together the major advances that have occurred in recent years while incorporating enough introductory material for new users of MCMC. Along with thorough coverage of the theoretical foundations and algorithmic and computational methodology, this comprehensive handbook includes substantial realistic case studies from a variety of disciplines. These case studies demonstrate the application of MCMC methods and serve as a series of templates for the construction, implementation, and choice of MCMC methodology.

  5. Second Order Optimality in Markov Decision Chains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 6 (2017), s. 1086-1099 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-10331S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Markov decision chains * second order optimality * optimalilty conditions for transient, discounted and average models * policy and value iterations Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/sladky-0485146.pdf

  6. Dynamical fluctuations for semi-Markov processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Maes, C.; Netočný, Karel; Wynants, B.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 36 (2009), 365002/1-365002/21 ISSN 1751-8113 R&D Projects: GA ČR GC202/07/J051 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100520 Keywords : nonequilibrium fluctuations * semi-Markov processes Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.577, year: 2009 http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1751-8121/42/36/365002

  7. Analysis of a quantum Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marbeau, J.; Gudder, S.

    1990-01-01

    A quantum chain is analogous to a classical stationary Markov chain except that the probability measure is replaced by a complex amplitude measure and the transition probability matrix is replaced by a transition amplitude matrix. After considering the general situation, we study a particular example of a quantum chain whose transition amplitude matrix has the form of a Dirichlet matrix. Such matrices generate a discrete analog of the usual continuum Feynman amplitude. We then compute the probability distribution for these quantum chains

  8. Modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulatilake, P.H.S.W.

    1987-07-01

    State-of-the-art on modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using first-order Markov chains is reviewed. Shortcomings of the presently available procedures are identified. A procedure which eliminates all the identified shortcomings is presented. Required statistical tests to perform this modelling are given in detail. An example (the Oficina formation in eastern Venezuela) is given to illustrate the presented procedure. 12 refs., 3 tabs. 1 fig.

  9. Markov Chains For Testing Redundant Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Allan L.; Sjogren, Jon A.

    1990-01-01

    Preliminary design developed for validation experiment that addresses problems unique to assuring extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. Approach takes into account inertia of controlled system in sense it takes more than one failure of control program to cause controlled system to fail. Verification procedure consists of two steps: experimentation (numerical simulation) and computation, with Markov model for each step.

  10. Operational Markov Condition for Quantum Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollock, Felix A.; Rodríguez-Rosario, César; Frauenheim, Thomas; Paternostro, Mauro; Modi, Kavan

    2018-01-01

    We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for a quantum process to be Markovian which coincides with the classical one in the relevant limit. Our condition unifies all previously known definitions for quantum Markov processes by accounting for all potentially detectable memory effects. We then derive a family of measures of non-Markovianity with clear operational interpretations, such as the size of the memory required to simulate a process or the experimental falsifiability of a Markovian hypothesis.

  11. Modeling nonhomogeneous Markov processes via time transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, R A; Inoue, L Y T; Fann, J R

    2008-09-01

    Longitudinal studies are a powerful tool for characterizing the course of chronic disease. These studies are usually carried out with subjects observed at periodic visits giving rise to panel data. Under this observation scheme the exact times of disease state transitions and sequence of disease states visited are unknown and Markov process models are often used to describe disease progression. Most applications of Markov process models rely on the assumption of time homogeneity, that is, that the transition rates are constant over time. This assumption is not satisfied when transition rates depend on time from the process origin. However, limited statistical tools are available for dealing with nonhomogeneity. We propose models in which the time scale of a nonhomogeneous Markov process is transformed to an operational time scale on which the process is homogeneous. We develop a method for jointly estimating the time transformation and the transition intensity matrix for the time transformed homogeneous process. We assess maximum likelihood estimation using the Fisher scoring algorithm via simulation studies and compare performance of our method to homogeneous and piecewise homogeneous models. We apply our methodology to a study of delirium progression in a cohort of stem cell transplantation recipients and show that our method identifies temporal trends in delirium incidence and recovery.

  12. Temperature scaling method for Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Lonnie D; Windus, Theresa L

    2009-01-22

    The use of ab initio potentials in Monte Carlo simulations aimed at investigating the nucleation kinetics of water clusters is complicated by the computational expense of the potential energy determinations. Furthermore, the common desire to investigate the temperature dependence of kinetic properties leads to an urgent need to reduce the expense of performing simulations at many different temperatures. A method is detailed that allows a Markov chain (obtained via Monte Carlo) at one temperature to be scaled to other temperatures of interest without the need to perform additional large simulations. This Markov chain temperature-scaling (TeS) can be generally applied to simulations geared for numerous applications. This paper shows the quality of results which can be obtained by TeS and the possible quantities which may be extracted from scaled Markov chains. Results are obtained for a 1-D analytical potential for which the exact solutions are known. Also, this method is applied to water clusters consisting of between 2 and 5 monomers, using Dynamical Nucleation Theory to determine the evaporation rate constant for monomer loss. Although ab initio potentials are not utilized in this paper, the benefit of this method is made apparent by using the Dang-Chang polarizable classical potential for water to obtain statistical properties at various temperatures.

  13. Stencil method: a Markov model for transport in porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgoshaie, A. H.; Tchelepi, H.; Jenny, P.

    2016-12-01

    In porous media the transport of fluid is dominated by flow-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying transmissibility field. Since the transmissibility is highly uncertain, many realizations of a geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo framework. One possible way to avoid the high computational cost of physics-based Monte Carlo simulations is to model the velocity field as a Markov process and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In previous works multiple Markov models for discrete velocity processes have been proposed. These models can be divided into two general classes of Markov models in time and Markov models in space. Both of these choices have been shown to be effective to some extent. However some studies have suggested that the Markov property cannot be confirmed for a temporal Markov process; Therefore there is not a consensus about the validity and value of Markov models in time. Moreover, previous spacial Markov models have only been used for modeling transport on structured networks and can not be readily applied to model transport in unstructured networks. In this work we propose a novel approach for constructing a Markov model in time (stencil method) for a discrete velocity process. The results form the stencil method are compared to previously proposed spacial Markov models for structured networks. The stencil method is also applied to unstructured networks and can successfully describe the dispersion of particles in this setting. Our conclusion is that both temporal Markov models and spacial Markov models for discrete velocity processes can be valid for a range of model parameters. Moreover, we show that the stencil model can be more efficient in many practical settings and is suited to model dispersion both on structured and unstructured networks.

  14. Study of selected phenotype switching strategies in time varying environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horvath, Denis, E-mail: horvath.denis@gmail.com [Centre of Interdisciplinary Biosciences, Institute of Physics, Faculty of Science, P.J. Šafárik University in Košice, Jesenná 5, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia); Brutovsky, Branislav, E-mail: branislav.brutovsky@upjs.sk [Department of Biophysics, Institute of Physics, P.J. Šafárik University in Košice, Jesenná 5, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia)

    2016-03-22

    Population heterogeneity plays an important role across many research, as well as the real-world, problems. The population heterogeneity relates to the ability of a population to cope with an environment change (or uncertainty) preventing its extinction. However, this ability is not always desirable as can be exemplified by an intratumor heterogeneity which positively correlates with the development of resistance to therapy. Causation of population heterogeneity is therefore in biology and medicine an intensively studied topic. In this paper the evolution of a specific strategy of population diversification, the phenotype switching, is studied at a conceptual level. The presented simulation model studies evolution of a large population of asexual organisms in a time-varying environment represented by a stochastic Markov process. Each organism disposes with a stochastic or nonlinear deterministic switching strategy realized by discrete-time models with evolvable parameters. We demonstrate that under rapidly varying exogenous conditions organisms operate in the vicinity of the bet-hedging strategy, while the deterministic patterns become relevant as the environmental variations are less frequent. Statistical characterization of the steady state regimes of the populations is done using the Hellinger and Kullback–Leibler functional distances and the Hamming distance. - Highlights: • Relation between phenotype switching and environment is studied. • The Markov chain Monte Carlo based model is developed. • Stochastic and deterministic strategies of phenotype switching are utilized. • Statistical measures of the dynamic heterogeneity reveal universal properties. • The results extend to higher lattice dimensions.

  15. Study of selected phenotype switching strategies in time varying environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horvath, Denis; Brutovsky, Branislav

    2016-01-01

    Population heterogeneity plays an important role across many research, as well as the real-world, problems. The population heterogeneity relates to the ability of a population to cope with an environment change (or uncertainty) preventing its extinction. However, this ability is not always desirable as can be exemplified by an intratumor heterogeneity which positively correlates with the development of resistance to therapy. Causation of population heterogeneity is therefore in biology and medicine an intensively studied topic. In this paper the evolution of a specific strategy of population diversification, the phenotype switching, is studied at a conceptual level. The presented simulation model studies evolution of a large population of asexual organisms in a time-varying environment represented by a stochastic Markov process. Each organism disposes with a stochastic or nonlinear deterministic switching strategy realized by discrete-time models with evolvable parameters. We demonstrate that under rapidly varying exogenous conditions organisms operate in the vicinity of the bet-hedging strategy, while the deterministic patterns become relevant as the environmental variations are less frequent. Statistical characterization of the steady state regimes of the populations is done using the Hellinger and Kullback–Leibler functional distances and the Hamming distance. - Highlights: • Relation between phenotype switching and environment is studied. • The Markov chain Monte Carlo based model is developed. • Stochastic and deterministic strategies of phenotype switching are utilized. • Statistical measures of the dynamic heterogeneity reveal universal properties. • The results extend to higher lattice dimensions.

  16. Latching micro optical switch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ernest J; Polosky, Marc A

    2013-05-21

    An optical switch reliably maintains its on or off state even when subjected to environments where the switch is bumped or otherwise moved. In addition, the optical switch maintains its on or off state indefinitely without requiring external power. External power is used only to transition the switch from one state to the other. The optical switch is configured with a fixed optical fiber and a movable optical fiber. The movable optical fiber is guided by various actuators in conjunction with a latching mechanism that configure the switch in one position that corresponds to the on state and in another position that corresponds to the off state.

  17. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  18. Linearization of the Lorenz system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Chunbiao; Sprott, Julien Clinton; Thio, Wesley

    2015-01-01

    A partial and complete piecewise linearized version of the Lorenz system is proposed. The linearized versions have an independent total amplitude control parameter. Additional further linearization leads naturally to a piecewise linear version of the diffusionless Lorenz system. A chaotic circuit with a single amplitude controller is then implemented using a new switch element, producing a chaotic oscillation that agrees with the numerical calculation for the piecewise linear diffusionless Lorenz system. - Highlights: • A partial and complete piecewise linearized version of the Lorenz system are addressed. • The linearized versions have an independent total amplitude control parameter. • A piecewise linear version of the diffusionless Lorenz system is derived by further linearization. • A corresponding chaotic circuit without any multiplier is implemented for the chaotic oscillation

  19. Linearization of the Lorenz system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Chunbiao, E-mail: goontry@126.com [School of Electronic & Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 (China); Engineering Technology Research and Development Center of Jiangsu Circulation Modernization Sensor Network, Jiangsu Institute of Commerce, Nanjing 211168 (China); Sprott, Julien Clinton [Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Thio, Wesley [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States)

    2015-05-08

    A partial and complete piecewise linearized version of the Lorenz system is proposed. The linearized versions have an independent total amplitude control parameter. Additional further linearization leads naturally to a piecewise linear version of the diffusionless Lorenz system. A chaotic circuit with a single amplitude controller is then implemented using a new switch element, producing a chaotic oscillation that agrees with the numerical calculation for the piecewise linear diffusionless Lorenz system. - Highlights: • A partial and complete piecewise linearized version of the Lorenz system are addressed. • The linearized versions have an independent total amplitude control parameter. • A piecewise linear version of the diffusionless Lorenz system is derived by further linearization. • A corresponding chaotic circuit without any multiplier is implemented for the chaotic oscillation.

  20. Optimal State Estimation for Discrete-Time Markov Jump Systems with Missing Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the optimal linear estimation for a class of direct-time Markov jump systems with missing observations. An observer-based approach of fault detection and isolation (FDI is investigated as a detection mechanic of fault case. For systems with known information, a conditional prediction of observations is applied and fault observations are replaced and isolated; then, an FDI linear minimum mean square error estimation (LMMSE can be developed by comprehensive utilizing of the correct information offered by systems. A recursive equation of filtering based on the geometric arguments can be obtained. Meanwhile, a stability of the state estimator will be guaranteed under appropriate assumption.

  1. Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abner, Erin L; Charnigo, Richard J; Kryscio, Richard J

    2013-10-25

    A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields.

  2. Derivation of Markov processes that violate detailed balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Julian

    2018-03-01

    Time-reversal symmetry of the microscopic laws dictates that the equilibrium distribution of a stochastic process must obey the condition of detailed balance. However, cyclic Markov processes that do not admit equilibrium distributions with detailed balance are often used to model systems driven out of equilibrium by external agents. I show that for a Markov model without detailed balance, an extended Markov model can be constructed, which explicitly includes the degrees of freedom for the driving agent and satisfies the detailed balance condition. The original cyclic Markov model for the driven system is then recovered as an approximation at early times by summing over the degrees of freedom for the driving agent. I also show that the widely accepted expression for the entropy production in a cyclic Markov model is actually a time derivative of an entropy component in the extended model. Further, I present an analytic expression for the entropy component that is hidden in the cyclic Markov model.

  3. Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

  4. Developing a statistically powerful measure for quartet tree inference using phylogenetic identities and Markov invariants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jeremy G; Taylor, Amelia; Holland, Barbara R; Jarvis, Peter D

    2017-12-01

    Recently there has been renewed interest in phylogenetic inference methods based on phylogenetic invariants, alongside the related Markov invariants. Broadly speaking, both these approaches give rise to polynomial functions of sequence site patterns that, in expectation value, either vanish for particular evolutionary trees (in the case of phylogenetic invariants) or have well understood transformation properties (in the case of Markov invariants). While both approaches have been valued for their intrinsic mathematical interest, it is not clear how they relate to each other, and to what extent they can be used as practical tools for inference of phylogenetic trees. In this paper, by focusing on the special case of binary sequence data and quartets of taxa, we are able to view these two different polynomial-based approaches within a common framework. To motivate the discussion, we present three desirable statistical properties that we argue any invariant-based phylogenetic method should satisfy: (1) sensible behaviour under reordering of input sequences; (2) stability as the taxa evolve independently according to a Markov process; and (3) explicit dependence on the assumption of a continuous-time process. Motivated by these statistical properties, we develop and explore several new phylogenetic inference methods. In particular, we develop a statistically bias-corrected version of the Markov invariants approach which satisfies all three properties. We also extend previous work by showing that the phylogenetic invariants can be implemented in such a way as to satisfy property (3). A simulation study shows that, in comparison to other methods, our new proposed approach based on bias-corrected Markov invariants is extremely powerful for phylogenetic inference. The binary case is of particular theoretical interest as-in this case only-the Markov invariants can be expressed as linear combinations of the phylogenetic invariants. A wider implication of this is that, for

  5. A Markov Process Inspired Cellular Automata Model of Road Traffic

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Fa; Li, Li; Hu, Jianming; Ji, Yan; Yao, Danya; Zhang, Yi; Jin, Xuexiang; Su, Yuelong; Wei, Zheng

    2008-01-01

    To provide a more accurate description of the driving behaviors in vehicle queues, a namely Markov-Gap cellular automata model is proposed in this paper. It views the variation of the gap between two consequent vehicles as a Markov process whose stationary distribution corresponds to the observed distribution of practical gaps. The multiformity of this Markov process provides the model enough flexibility to describe various driving behaviors. Two examples are given to show how to specialize i...

  6. A New GMRES(m Method for Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing-Yuan Pu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a class of new accelerated restarted GMRES method for calculating the stationary probability vector of an irreducible Markov chain. We focus on the mechanism of this new hybrid method by showing how to periodically combine the GMRES and vector extrapolation method into a much efficient one for improving the convergence rate in Markov chain problems. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of our new algorithm on several typical Markov chain problems.

  7. Threshold partitioning of sparse matrices and applications to Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Hwajeong; Szyld, D.B. [Temple Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    It is well known that the order of the variables and equations of a large, sparse linear system influences the performance of classical iterative methods. In particular if, after a symmetric permutation, the blocks in the diagonal have more nonzeros, classical block methods have a faster asymptotic rate of convergence. In this paper, different ordering and partitioning algorithms for sparse matrices are presented. They are modifications of PABLO. In the new algorithms, in addition to the location of the nonzeros, the values of the entries are taken into account. The matrix resulting after the symmetric permutation has dense blocks along the diagonal, and small entries in the off-diagonal blocks. Parameters can be easily adjusted to obtain, for example, denser blocks, or blocks with elements of larger magnitude. In particular, when the matrices represent Markov chains, the permuted matrices are well suited for block iterative methods that find the corresponding probability distribution. Applications to three types of methods are explored: (1) Classical block methods, such as Block Gauss Seidel. (2) Preconditioned GMRES, where a block diagonal preconditioner is used. (3) Iterative aggregation method (also called aggregation/disaggregation) where the partition obtained from the ordering algorithm with certain parameters is used as an aggregation scheme. In all three cases, experiments are presented which illustrate the performance of the methods with the new orderings. The complexity of the new algorithms is linear in the number of nonzeros and the order of the matrix, and thus adding little computational effort to the overall solution.

  8. Context Tree Estimation in Variable Length Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Dumont, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    We address the issue of context tree estimation in variable length hidden Markov models. We propose an estimator of the context tree of the hidden Markov process which needs no prior upper bound on the depth of the context tree. We prove that the estimator is strongly consistent. This uses information-theoretic mixture inequalities in the spirit of Finesso and Lorenzo(Consistent estimation of the order for Markov and hidden Markov chains(1990)) and E.Gassiat and S.Boucheron (Optimal error exp...

  9. Deteksi Fraud Menggunakan Metode Model Markov Tersembunyi Pada Proses Bisnis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrean Hutama Koosasi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Model Markov Tersembunyi merupakan sebuah metode statistik berdasarkan Model Markov sederhana yang memodelkan sistem serta membaginya dalam 2 (dua state, state tersembunyi dan state observasi. Dalam pengerjaan tugas akhir ini, penulis mengusulkan penggunaan metode Model Markov Tersembunyi untuk menemukan fraud didalam sebuah pelaksanaan proses bisnis. Dengan penggunaan metode Model Markov Tersembunyi ini, maka pengamatan terhadap elemen penyusun sebuah kasus/kejadian, yakni beberapa aktivitas, akan diperoleh sebuah nilai peluang, yang sekaligus memberikan prediksi terhadap kasus/kejadian tersebut, sebuah fraud atau tidak. Hasil ekpserimen ini menunjukkan bahwa metode yang diusulkan mampu memberikan prediksi akhir dengan evaluasi TPR sebesar 87,5% dan TNR sebesar 99,4%.

  10. H2-control and the separation principle for discrete-time jump systems with the Markov chain in a general state space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Danilo Zucolli; Costa, Oswaldo Luiz do Valle

    2017-10-01

    This paper deals with the H2 optimal control problem of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems (MJLS) considering the case in which the Markov chain takes values in a general Borel space ?. It is assumed that the controller has access only to an output variable and to the jump parameter. The goal, in this case, is to design a dynamic Markov jump controller such that the H2-norm of the closed-loop system is minimised. It is shown that the H2-norm can be written as the sum of two H2-norms, such that one of them does not depend on the control, and the other one is obtained from the optimal filter for an infinite-horizon filtering problem. This result can be seen as a separation principle for MJLS with Markov chain in a Borel space ? considering the infinite time horizon case.

  11. Martingale approach in pricing and hedging European options under regime-switching

    OpenAIRE

    Grigori N. Milstein; Vladimir Spokoiny

    2011-01-01

    The paper focuses on the problem of pricing and hedging a European contingent claim for an incomplete market model, in which evolution of price processes for a saving account and stocks depends on an observable Markov chain. The pricing function is evaluated using the martingale approach. The equivalent martingale measure is introduced in a way that the Markov chain remains the historical one, and the pricing function satisfies the Cauchy problem for a system of linear parabolic equations. It...

  12. Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchenkov, D.; Dawin, J. R.

    2012-07-01

    A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.

  13. Decoding LDPC Convolutional Codes on Markov Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kashyap Manohar

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper describes a pipelined iterative technique for joint decoding and channel state estimation of LDPC convolutional codes over Markov channels. Example designs are presented for the Gilbert-Elliott discrete channel model. We also compare the performance and complexity of our algorithm against joint decoding and state estimation of conventional LDPC block codes. Complexity analysis reveals that our pipelined algorithm reduces the number of operations per time step compared to LDPC block codes, at the expense of increased memory and latency. This tradeoff is favorable for low-power applications.

  14. Decoding LDPC Convolutional Codes on Markov Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Winstead

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a pipelined iterative technique for joint decoding and channel state estimation of LDPC convolutional codes over Markov channels. Example designs are presented for the Gilbert-Elliott discrete channel model. We also compare the performance and complexity of our algorithm against joint decoding and state estimation of conventional LDPC block codes. Complexity analysis reveals that our pipelined algorithm reduces the number of operations per time step compared to LDPC block codes, at the expense of increased memory and latency. This tradeoff is favorable for low-power applications.

  15. Evolving the structure of hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    won, K. J.; Prugel-Bennett, A.; Krogh, A.

    2006-01-01

    A genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed for finding the structure of hidden Markov Models (HMMs) used for biological sequence analysis. The GA is designed to preserve biologically meaningful building blocks. The search through the space of HMM structures is combined with optimization of the emission...... and transition probabilities using the classic Baum-Welch algorithm. The system is tested on the problem of finding the promoter and coding region of C. jejuni. The resulting HMM has a superior discrimination ability to a handcrafted model that has been published in the literature....

  16. ANALYSING ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING PLANS BY MARKOV CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mirabi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this research, a Markov analysis of acceptance sampling plans in a single stage and in two stages is proposed, based on the quality of the items inspected. In a stage of this policy, if the number of defective items in a sample of inspected items is more than the upper threshold, the batch is rejected. However, the batch is accepted if the number of defective items is less than the lower threshold. Nonetheless, when the number of defective items falls between the upper and lower thresholds, the decision-making process continues to inspect the items and collect further samples. The primary objective is to determine the optimal values of the upper and lower thresholds using a Markov process to minimise the total cost associated with a batch acceptance policy. A solution method is presented, along with a numerical demonstration of the application of the proposed methodology.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie navorsing word ’n Markov-ontleding gedoen van aannamemonsternemingsplanne wat plaasvind in ’n enkele stap of in twee stappe na gelang van die kwaliteit van die items wat geïnspekteer word. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items ’n boonste grens oorskry, word die lot afgekeur. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items minder is as ’n onderste grens, word die lot aanvaar. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items in die gebied tussen die boonste en onderste grense lê, word die besluitnemingsproses voortgesit en verdere monsters word geneem. Die primêre doel is om die optimale waardes van die booonste en onderste grense te bepaal deur gebruik te maak van ’n Markov-proses sodat die totale koste verbonde aan die proses geminimiseer kan word. ’n Oplossing word daarna voorgehou tesame met ’n numeriese voorbeeld van die toepassing van die voorgestelde oplossing.

  17. Vulnerability of networks of interacting Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocarev, L; Zlatanov, N; Trajanov, D

    2010-05-13

    The concept of vulnerability is introduced for a model of random, dynamical interactions on networks. In this model, known as the influence model, the nodes are arranged in an arbitrary network, while the evolution of the status at a node is according to an internal Markov chain, but with transition probabilities that depend not only on the current status of that node but also on the statuses of the neighbouring nodes. Vulnerability is treated analytically and numerically for several networks with different topological structures, as well as for two real networks--the network of infrastructures and the EU power grid--identifying the most vulnerable nodes of these networks.

  18. Genetic Algorithms Principles Towards Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a general approach based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs to evolve Hidden Markov Models (HMM. The problem appears when experts assign probability values for HMM, they use only some limited inputs. The assigned probability values might not be accurate to serve in other cases related to the same domain. We introduce an approach based on GAs to find
    out the suitable probability values for the HMM to be mostly correct in more cases than what have been used to assign the probability values.

  19. Average contraction and synchronization of complex switched networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Lei; Wang Qingguo

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces an average contraction analysis for nonlinear switched systems and applies it to investigating the synchronization of complex networks of coupled systems with switching topology. For a general nonlinear system with a time-dependent switching law, a basic convergence result is presented according to average contraction analysis, and a special case where trajectories of a distributed switched system converge to a linear subspace is then investigated. Synchronization is viewed as the special case with all trajectories approaching the synchronization manifold, and is thus studied for complex networks of coupled oscillators with switching topology. It is shown that the synchronization of a complex switched network can be evaluated by the dynamics of an isolated node, the coupling strength and the time average of the smallest eigenvalue associated with the Laplacians of switching topology and the coupling fashion. Finally, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. (paper)

  20. Markov chain Monte Carlo with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation

    KAUST Repository

    Gómez-Rubio, Virgilio

    2017-10-06

    The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) has established itself as a widely used method for approximate inference on Bayesian hierarchical models which can be represented as a latent Gaussian model (LGM). INLA is based on producing an accurate approximation to the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters in the model and some other quantities of interest by using repeated approximations to intermediate distributions and integrals that appear in the computation of the posterior marginals. INLA focuses on models whose latent effects are a Gaussian Markov random field. For this reason, we have explored alternative ways of expanding the number of possible models that can be fitted using the INLA methodology. In this paper, we present a novel approach that combines INLA and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The aim is to consider a wider range of models that can be fitted with INLA only when some of the parameters of the model have been fixed. We show how new values of these parameters can be drawn from their posterior by using conditional models fitted with INLA and standard MCMC algorithms, such as Metropolis–Hastings. Hence, this will extend the use of INLA to fit models that can be expressed as a conditional LGM. Also, this new approach can be used to build simpler MCMC samplers for complex models as it allows sampling only on a limited number of parameters in the model. We will demonstrate how our approach can extend the class of models that could benefit from INLA, and how the R-INLA package will ease its implementation. We will go through simple examples of this new approach before we discuss more advanced applications with datasets taken from the relevant literature. In particular, INLA within MCMC will be used to fit models with Laplace priors in a Bayesian Lasso model, imputation of missing covariates in linear models, fitting spatial econometrics models with complex nonlinear terms in the linear predictor and classification of data with

  1. Markov chain Monte Carlo with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation

    KAUST Repository

    Gó mez-Rubio, Virgilio; Rue, Haavard

    2017-01-01

    The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) has established itself as a widely used method for approximate inference on Bayesian hierarchical models which can be represented as a latent Gaussian model (LGM). INLA is based on producing an accurate approximation to the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters in the model and some other quantities of interest by using repeated approximations to intermediate distributions and integrals that appear in the computation of the posterior marginals. INLA focuses on models whose latent effects are a Gaussian Markov random field. For this reason, we have explored alternative ways of expanding the number of possible models that can be fitted using the INLA methodology. In this paper, we present a novel approach that combines INLA and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The aim is to consider a wider range of models that can be fitted with INLA only when some of the parameters of the model have been fixed. We show how new values of these parameters can be drawn from their posterior by using conditional models fitted with INLA and standard MCMC algorithms, such as Metropolis–Hastings. Hence, this will extend the use of INLA to fit models that can be expressed as a conditional LGM. Also, this new approach can be used to build simpler MCMC samplers for complex models as it allows sampling only on a limited number of parameters in the model. We will demonstrate how our approach can extend the class of models that could benefit from INLA, and how the R-INLA package will ease its implementation. We will go through simple examples of this new approach before we discuss more advanced applications with datasets taken from the relevant literature. In particular, INLA within MCMC will be used to fit models with Laplace priors in a Bayesian Lasso model, imputation of missing covariates in linear models, fitting spatial econometrics models with complex nonlinear terms in the linear predictor and classification of data with

  2. Epitope discovery with phylogenetic hidden Markov models.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Lacerda, Miguel

    2010-05-01

    Existing methods for the prediction of immunologically active T-cell epitopes are based on the amino acid sequence or structure of pathogen proteins. Additional information regarding the locations of epitopes may be acquired by considering the evolution of viruses in hosts with different immune backgrounds. In particular, immune-dependent evolutionary patterns at sites within or near T-cell epitopes can be used to enhance epitope identification. We have developed a mutation-selection model of T-cell epitope evolution that allows the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype of the host to influence the evolutionary process. This is one of the first examples of the incorporation of environmental parameters into a phylogenetic model and has many other potential applications where the selection pressures exerted on an organism can be related directly to environmental factors. We combine this novel evolutionary model with a hidden Markov model to identify contiguous amino acid positions that appear to evolve under immune pressure in the presence of specific host immune alleles and that therefore represent potential epitopes. This phylogenetic hidden Markov model provides a rigorous probabilistic framework that can be combined with sequence or structural information to improve epitope prediction. As a demonstration, we apply the model to a data set of HIV-1 protein-coding sequences and host HLA genotypes.

  3. Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Grace

    2013-07-01

    J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

  4. Unmixing hyperspectral images using Markov random fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eches, Olivier; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new spectral unmixing strategy based on the normal compositional model that exploits the spatial correlations between the image pixels. The pure materials (referred to as endmembers) contained in the image are assumed to be available (they can be obtained by using an appropriate endmember extraction algorithm), while the corresponding fractions (referred to as abundances) are estimated by the proposed algorithm. Due to physical constraints, the abundances have to satisfy positivity and sum-to-one constraints. The image is divided into homogeneous distinct regions having the same statistical properties for the abundance coefficients. The spatial dependencies within each class are modeled thanks to Potts-Markov random fields. Within a Bayesian framework, prior distributions for the abundances and the associated hyperparameters are introduced. A reparametrization of the abundance coefficients is proposed to handle the physical constraints (positivity and sum-to-one) inherent to hyperspectral imagery. The parameters (abundances), hyperparameters (abundance mean and variance for each class) and the classification map indicating the classes of all pixels in the image are inferred from the resulting joint posterior distribution. To overcome the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to generate samples asymptotically distributed according to the joint posterior of interest. Simulations conducted on synthetic and real data are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

  5. Markov transitions and the propagation of chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottlieb, A.

    1998-01-01

    The propagation of chaos is a central concept of kinetic theory that serves to relate the equations of Boltzmann and Vlasov to the dynamics of many-particle systems. Propagation of chaos means that molecular chaos, i.e., the stochastic independence of two random particles in a many-particle system, persists in time, as the number of particles tends to infinity. We establish a necessary and sufficient condition for a family of general n-particle Markov processes to propagate chaos. This condition is expressed in terms of the Markov transition functions associated to the n-particle processes, and it amounts to saying that chaos of random initial states propagates if it propagates for pure initial states. Our proof of this result relies on the weak convergence approach to the study of chaos due to Sztitman and Tanaka. We assume that the space in which the particles live is homomorphic to a complete and separable metric space so that we may invoke Prohorov's theorem in our proof. We also show that, if the particles can be in only finitely many states, then molecular chaos implies that the specific entropies in the n-particle distributions converge to the entropy of the limiting single-particle distribution

  6. Asymptotic evolution of quantum Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novotny, Jaroslav [FNSPE, CTU in Prague, 115 19 Praha 1 - Stare Mesto (Czech Republic); Alber, Gernot [Institut fuer Angewandte Physik, Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, D-64289 Darmstadt (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The iterated quantum operations, so called quantum Markov chains, play an important role in various branches of physics. They constitute basis for many discrete models capable to explore fundamental physical problems, such as the approach to thermal equilibrium, or the asymptotic dynamics of macroscopic physical systems far from thermal equilibrium. On the other hand, in the more applied area of quantum technology they also describe general characteristic properties of quantum networks or they can describe different quantum protocols in the presence of decoherence. A particularly, an interesting aspect of these quantum Markov chains is their asymptotic dynamics and its characteristic features. We demonstrate there is always a vector subspace (typically low-dimensional) of so-called attractors on which the resulting superoperator governing the iterative time evolution of quantum states can be diagonalized and in which the asymptotic quantum dynamics takes place. As the main result interesting algebraic relations are presented for this set of attractors which allow to specify their dual basis and to determine them in a convenient way. Based on this general theory we show some generalizations concerning the theory of fixed points or asymptotic evolution of random quantum operations.

  7. Monotone measures of ergodicity for Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Keilson

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The following paper, first written in 1974, was never published other than as part of an internal research series. Its lack of publication is unrelated to the merits of the paper and the paper is of current importance by virtue of its relation to the relaxation time. A systematic discussion is provided of the approach of a finite Markov chain to ergodicity by proving the monotonicity of an important set of norms, each measures of egodicity, whether or not time reversibility is present. The paper is of particular interest because the discussion of the relaxation time of a finite Markov chain [2] has only been clean for time reversible chains, a small subset of the chains of interest. This restriction is not present here. Indeed, a new relaxation time quoted quantifies the relaxation time for all finite ergodic chains (cf. the discussion of Q1(t below Equation (1.7]. This relaxation time was developed by Keilson with A. Roy in his thesis [6], yet to be published.

  8. Linear algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Shilov, Georgi E

    1977-01-01

    Covers determinants, linear spaces, systems of linear equations, linear functions of a vector argument, coordinate transformations, the canonical form of the matrix of a linear operator, bilinear and quadratic forms, Euclidean spaces, unitary spaces, quadratic forms in Euclidean and unitary spaces, finite-dimensional space. Problems with hints and answers.

  9. Pathwise duals of monotone and additive Markov processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sturm, A.; Swart, Jan M.

    -, - (2018) ISSN 0894-9840 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/12/2613 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : pathwise duality * monotone Markov process * additive Markov process * interacting particle system Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.854, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/SI/swart-0465436.pdf

  10. An introduction to hidden Markov models for biological sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1998-01-01

    A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding.......A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding....

  11. Asymptotics for Estimating Equations in Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Vinsløv; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    Results on asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimate in hidden Markov models are extended in two directions. The stationarity assumption is relaxed, which allows for a covariate process influencing the hidden Markov process. Furthermore a class of estimating equations is considered...

  12. Efficient Incorporation of Markov Random Fields in Change Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aanæs, Henrik; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2009-01-01

    of noise, implying that the pixel-wise classifier is also noisy. There is thus a need for incorporating local homogeneity constraints into such a change detection framework. For this modelling task Markov Random Fields are suitable. Markov Random Fields have, however, previously been plagued by lack...

  13. Markov trace on the Yokonuma-Hecke algebra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juyumaya, J.

    2002-11-01

    The objective of this note is to prove that there exists a Markov trace on the Yokonuma-Hecke algebra. A motivation to define a Markov trace is to get polynomial invariants for knots in the sense of Jones construction. (author)

  14. Compositionality for Markov reward chains with fast and silent transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Markovski, J.; Sokolova, A.; Trcka, N.; Vink, de E.P.

    2009-01-01

    A parallel composition is defined for Markov reward chains with stochastic discontinuity, and with fast and silent transitions. In this setting, compositionality with respect to the relevant aggregation preorders is established. For Markov reward chains with fast transitions the preorders are

  15. Model Checking Markov Reward Models with Impulse Rewards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cloth, Lucia; Katoen, Joost-Pieter; Khattri, Maneesh; Pulungan, Reza; Bondavalli, Andrea; Haverkort, Boudewijn; Tang, Dong

    This paper considers model checking of Markov reward models (MRMs), continuous-time Markov chains with state rewards as well as impulse rewards. The reward extension of the logic CSL (Continuous Stochastic Logic) is interpreted over such MRMs, and two numerical algorithms are provided to check the

  16. Recursive smoothers for hidden discrete-time Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lakhdar Aggoun

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a discrete-time Markov chain observed through another Markov chain. The proposed model extends models discussed by Elliott et al. (1995. We propose improved recursive formulae to update smoothed estimates of processes related to the model. These recursive estimates are used to update the parameter of the model via the expectation maximization (EM algorithm.

  17. First hitting probabilities for semi markov chains and estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgiadis, Stylianos

    2017-01-01

    We first consider a stochastic system described by an absorbing semi-Markov chain with finite state space and we introduce the absorption probability to a class of recurrent states. Afterwards, we study the first hitting probability to a subset of states for an irreducible semi-Markov chain...

  18. ANALYTIC WORD RECOGNITION WITHOUT SEGMENTATION BASED ON MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coisy, C.; Belaid, A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, a method for analytic handwritten word recognition based on causal Markov random fields is described. The words models are HMMs where each state corresponds to a letter; each letter is modelled by a NSHP­HMM (Markov field). Global models are build dynamically, and used for recognition

  19. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces ...

  20. Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov decision process. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... This study provides a review of Markov decision processes and investigates its suitability for solutions to portfolio allocation problems under vendor managed inventory in ...

  1. Logics and Models for Stochastic Analysis Beyond Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Kebin

    , because of the generality of ME distributions, we have to leave the world of Markov chains. To support ME distributions with multiple exits, we introduce a multi-exits ME distribution together with a process algebra MEME to express the systems having the semantics as Markov renewal processes with ME...

  2. Topology optimization of ultra-fast nano-photonic switches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elesin, Yuriy; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov; Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to demonstrate 1D switch designs obtained by topology optimization which show better performance than the designs considered in the literature. Such devices are non-linear and their performance depends on the efficiency of light-matter interaction. Simple optical switches...

  3. High power switches for ion induction linacs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humphries, S.; Savage, M.; Saylor, W.B.

    1985-01-01

    The success of linear induction ion accelerators for accelerator inertial fusion (AIF) applications depends largely on innovations in pulsed power technology. There are tight constraints on the accuracy of accelerating voltage waveforms to maintain a low momentum spread. Furthermore, the non-relativistic ion beams may be subject to a klystronlike interaction with the accelerating cavities, leading to enhanced momentum spread. In this paper, we describe a novel high power switch with a demonstrated ability to interrupt 300 A at 20 kV in less than 60 ns. The switch may allow the replacement of pulse modulators in linear induction accelerators with hard tube pulsers. A power system based on a hard tube pulser could solve the longitudinal instability problem while maintaining high energy transfer efficiency. The problem of longitudinal beam control in ion induction linacs is reviewed in Section 2. Section 3 describes the principles of the plasma flow switch. Experimental results are summarized in Section 4

  4. High power switches for ion induction linacs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humphries, S. Jr.; Savage, M.; Saylor, W.B.

    1985-01-01

    The success of linear induction ion accelerators for accelerator inertial fusion (AIF) applications depends largely on innovations in pulsed power technology. There are tight constraints on the accuracy of accelerating voltage waveforms to maintain a low momentum spread. Furthermore, the non-relativistic ion beams may be subject to a klystron-like interaction with the accelerating cavities leading to enhanced momentum spread. In this paper, the author describe a novel high power switch with a demonstrated ability to interrupt 300 A at 20 kV in less than 60 ns. The switch may allow the replacement of pulse modulators in linear induction accelerators with hard tube pulsers. A power system based on a hard tube pulser could solve the longitudinal instability problem while maintaining high energy transfer efficiency. The problem of longitudinal beam control in ion induction linacs is reviewed in Section 2. Section 3 describes the principles of the plasma flow switch. Experimental results are summarized in Section 4

  5. Introduction to the numerical solutions of Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Stewart, Williams J

    1994-01-01

    A cornerstone of applied probability, Markov chains can be used to help model how plants grow, chemicals react, and atoms diffuse - and applications are increasingly being found in such areas as engineering, computer science, economics, and education. To apply the techniques to real problems, however, it is necessary to understand how Markov chains can be solved numerically. In this book, the first to offer a systematic and detailed treatment of the numerical solution of Markov chains, William Stewart provides scientists on many levels with the power to put this theory to use in the actual world, where it has applications in areas as diverse as engineering, economics, and education. His efforts make for essential reading in a rapidly growing field. Here, Stewart explores all aspects of numerically computing solutions of Markov chains, especially when the state is huge. He provides extensive background to both discrete-time and continuous-time Markov chains and examines many different numerical computing metho...

  6. Optical packet switched networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Bukhave

    1999-01-01

    Optical packet switched networks are investigated with emphasis on the performance of the packet switch blocks. Initially, the network context of the optical packet switched network is described showing that a packet network will provide transparency, flexibility and bridge the granularity gap...... in interferometric wavelength converters is investigated showing that a 10 Gbit/s 19 4x4 swich blocks can be cascaded at a BER of 10-14. An analytical traffic model enables the calculation of the traffice performance of a WDM packet network. Hereby the importance of WDM and wavelegth conversion in the switch blocks...... is established as a flexible means to reduce the optical buffer, e.g., the number of fibre delay lines for a 16x16 switch block is reduced from 23 to 6 by going from 2 to 8 wavelength channels pr. inlet. Additionally, a component count analysis is carried out to illustrate the trade-offs in the switch block...

  7. Density Control of Multi-Agent Systems with Safety Constraints: A Markov Chain Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirer, Nazli

    systems with a single agent and systems with large number of agents due to the probabilistic nature, where the probability distribution of each agent's state evolves according to a finite-state and discrete-time Markov chain (MC). Hence, designing proper decision control policies requires numerically tractable solution methods for the synthesis of Markov chains. The synthesis problem has the form of a Linear Matrix Inequality Problem (LMI), with LMI formulation of the constraints. To this end, we propose convex necessary and sufficient conditions for safety constraints in Markov chains, which is a novel result in the Markov chain literature. In addition to LMI-based, offline, Markov matrix synthesis method, we also propose a QP-based, online, method to compute a time-varying Markov matrix based on the real-time density feedback. Both problems are convex optimization problems that can be solved in a reliable and tractable way, utilizing existing tools in the literature. A Low Earth Orbit (LEO) swarm simulations are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. Another problem tackled as a part of this research is the generalization of the density control problem to autonomous mobile agents with two control modes: ON and OFF. Here, each mode consists of a (possibly overlapping) finite set of actions, that is, there exist a set of actions for the ON mode and another set for the OFF mode. We give formulation for a new Markov chain synthesis problem, with additional measurements for the state transitions, where a policy is designed to ensure desired safety and convergence properties for the underlying Markov chain.

  8. Effective switching frequency multiplier inverter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Gui-Jia [Oak Ridge, TN; Peng, Fang Z [Okemos, MI

    2007-08-07

    A switching frequency multiplier inverter for low inductance machines that uses parallel connection of switches and each switch is independently controlled according to a pulse width modulation scheme. The effective switching frequency is multiplied by the number of switches connected in parallel while each individual switch operates within its limit of switching frequency. This technique can also be used for other power converters such as DC/DC, AC/DC converters.

  9. FreeSWITCH Cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Minessale, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    This is a problem-solution approach to take your FreeSWITCH skills to the next level, where everything is explained in a practical way. If you are a system administrator, hobbyist, or someone who uses FreeSWITCH on a regular basis, this book is for you. Whether you are a FreeSWITCH expert or just getting started, this book will take your skills to the next level.

  10. Elements of magnetic switching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaland, K.

    1983-01-01

    This chapter describes magnetic switching as a method of connecting a capacitor bank (source) to a load; reviews several successful applications of magnetic switching, and discusses switching transformers, limitations and future possibilities. Some of the inflexibility and especially the high cost of magnetic materials may be overcome with the availability of the new splash cooled ribbons (Metglas). Experience has shown that magnetics works despite shock, radiation or noise interferences

  11. Asteroid mass estimation using Markov-chain Monte Carlo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siltala, Lauri; Granvik, Mikael

    2017-11-01

    Estimates for asteroid masses are based on their gravitational perturbations on the orbits of other objects such as Mars, spacecraft, or other asteroids and/or their satellites. In the case of asteroid-asteroid perturbations, this leads to an inverse problem in at least 13 dimensions where the aim is to derive the mass of the perturbing asteroid(s) and six orbital elements for both the perturbing asteroid(s) and the test asteroid(s) based on astrometric observations. We have developed and implemented three different mass estimation algorithms utilizing asteroid-asteroid perturbations: the very rough 'marching' approximation, in which the asteroids' orbital elements are not fitted, thereby reducing the problem to a one-dimensional estimation of the mass, an implementation of the Nelder-Mead simplex method, and most significantly, a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We describe each of these algorithms with particular focus on the MCMC algorithm, and present example results using both synthetic and real data. Our results agree with the published mass estimates, but suggest that the published uncertainties may be misleading as a consequence of using linearized mass-estimation methods. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges with the algorithms as well as future plans.

  12. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  13. Learning Markov models for stationary system behaviors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yingke; Mao, Hua; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    to a single long observation sequence, and in these situations existing automatic learning methods cannot be applied. In this paper, we adapt algorithms for learning variable order Markov chains from a single observation sequence of a target system, so that stationary system properties can be verified using......Establishing an accurate model for formal verification of an existing hardware or software system is often a manual process that is both time consuming and resource demanding. In order to ease the model construction phase, methods have recently been proposed for automatically learning accurate...... the learned model. Experiments demonstrate that system properties (formulated as stationary probabilities of LTL formulas) can be reliably identified using the learned model....

  14. Neuroevolution Mechanism for Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a statistical model based on probabilities. HMM is becoming one of the major models involved in many applications such as natural language
    processing, handwritten recognition, image processing, prediction systems and many more. In this research we are concerned with finding out the best HMM for a certain application domain. We propose a neuroevolution process that is based first on converting the HMM to a neural network, then generating many neural networks at random where each represents a HMM. We proceed by
    applying genetic operators to obtain new set of neural networks where each represents HMMs, and updating the population. Finally select the best neural network based on a fitness function.

  15. Improved hidden Markov model for nosocomial infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, Karim; Leecaster, Molly; Greene, Tom; Samore, Matthew; Thomas, Alun

    2014-12-01

    We propose a novel hidden Markov model (HMM) for parameter estimation in hospital transmission models, and show that commonly made simplifying assumptions can lead to severe model misspecification and poor parameter estimates. A standard HMM that embodies two commonly made simplifying assumptions, namely a fixed patient count and binomially distributed detections is compared with a new alternative HMM that does not require these simplifying assumptions. Using simulated data, we demonstrate how each of the simplifying assumptions used by the standard model leads to model misspecification, whereas the alternative model results in accurate parameter estimates. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimation and uncertainty of reversible Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

    2015-11-07

    Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model rely heavily on the reversibility property. The estimation of a reversible transition matrix from simulation data is, therefore, crucial to the successful application of the previously developed theory. In this work, we discuss methods for the maximum likelihood estimation of transition matrices from finite simulation data and present a new algorithm for the estimation if reversibility with respect to a given stationary vector is desired. We also develop new methods for the Bayesian posterior inference of reversible transition matrices with and without given stationary vector taking into account the need for a suitable prior distribution preserving the meta-stable features of the observed process during posterior inference. All algorithms here are implemented in the PyEMMA software--http://pyemma.org--as of version 2.0.

  17. Monte Carlo simulation of Markov unreliability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, E.E.; Boehm, F.

    1984-01-01

    A Monte Carlo method is formulated for the evaluation of the unrealibility of complex systems with known component failure and repair rates. The formulation is in terms of a Markov process allowing dependences between components to be modeled and computational efficiencies to be achieved in the Monte Carlo simulation. Two variance reduction techniques, forced transition and failure biasing, are employed to increase computational efficiency of the random walk procedure. For an example problem these result in improved computational efficiency by more than three orders of magnitudes over analog Monte Carlo. The method is generalized to treat problems with distributed failure and repair rate data, and a batching technique is introduced and shown to result in substantial increases in computational efficiency for an example problem. A method for separating the variance due to the data uncertainty from that due to the finite number of random walks is presented. (orig.)

  18. Recombination Processes and Nonlinear Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirogov, Sergey; Rybko, Alexander; Kalinina, Anastasia; Gelfand, Mikhail

    2016-09-01

    Bacteria are known to exchange genetic information by horizontal gene transfer. Since the frequency of homologous recombination depends on the similarity between the recombining segments, several studies examined whether this could lead to the emergence of subspecies. Most of them simulated fixed-size Wright-Fisher populations, in which the genetic drift should be taken into account. Here, we use nonlinear Markov processes to describe a bacterial population evolving under mutation and recombination. We consider a population structure as a probability measure on the space of genomes. This approach implies the infinite population size limit, and thus, the genetic drift is not assumed. We prove that under these conditions, the emergence of subspecies is impossible.

  19. SHARP ENTRYWISE PERTURBATION BOUNDS FOR MARKOV CHAINS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiede, Erik; VAN Koten, Brian; Weare, Jonathan

    For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem in computational statistical physics. We have derived perturbation bounds on the relative error of the invariant distribution that reveal these variations in sensitivity. Our bounds are sharp, we do not impose any structural assumptions on the transition matrix or on the perturbation, and computing the bounds has the same complexity as computing the invariant distribution or computing other bounds in the literature. Moreover, our bounds have a simple interpretation in terms of hitting times, which can be used to draw intuitive but rigorous conclusions about the sensitivity of a chain to various types of perturbations.

  20. A Markov Chain Model for Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelos Dassios

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering arrival of events, such as jumps, bankruptcies, crises and catastrophes in finance, insurance and economics with both internal contagion risk and external common risk. Key distributional properties, such as the moments and probability generating functions, for this process are derived. Some special cases with explicit results and numerical examples and the motivation for further actuarial applications are also discussed. The model can be considered a generalisation of the dynamic contagion process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011.

  1. Markov state models of protein misfolding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirur, Anshul; De Sancho, David; Best, Robert B.

    2016-02-01

    Markov state models (MSMs) are an extremely useful tool for understanding the conformational dynamics of macromolecules and for analyzing MD simulations in a quantitative fashion. They have been extensively used for peptide and protein folding, for small molecule binding, and for the study of native ensemble dynamics. Here, we adapt the MSM methodology to gain insight into the dynamics of misfolded states. To overcome possible flaws in root-mean-square deviation (RMSD)-based metrics, we introduce a novel discretization approach, based on coarse-grained contact maps. In addition, we extend the MSM methodology to include "sink" states in order to account for the irreversibility (on simulation time scales) of processes like protein misfolding. We apply this method to analyze the mechanism of misfolding of tandem repeats of titin domains, and how it is influenced by confinement in a chaperonin-like cavity.

  2. Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2003-06-01

    We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

  3. Anatomy Ontology Matching Using Markov Logic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunhua Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The anatomy of model species is described in ontologies, which are used to standardize the annotations of experimental data, such as gene expression patterns. To compare such data between species, we need to establish relationships between ontologies describing different species. Ontology matching is a kind of solutions to find semantic correspondences between entities of different ontologies. Markov logic networks which unify probabilistic graphical model and first-order logic provide an excellent framework for ontology matching. We combine several different matching strategies through first-order logic formulas according to the structure of anatomy ontologies. Experiments on the adult mouse anatomy and the human anatomy have demonstrated the effectiveness of proposed approach in terms of the quality of result alignment.

  4. Crossing over...Markov meets Mendel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mneimneh, Saad

    2012-01-01

    Chromosomal crossover is a biological mechanism to combine parental traits. It is perhaps the first mechanism ever taught in any introductory biology class. The formulation of crossover, and resulting recombination, came about 100 years after Mendel's famous experiments. To a great extent, this formulation is consistent with the basic genetic findings of Mendel. More importantly, it provides a mathematical insight for his two laws (and corrects them). From a mathematical perspective, and while it retains similarities, genetic recombination guarantees diversity so that we do not rapidly converge to the same being. It is this diversity that made the study of biology possible. In particular, the problem of genetic mapping and linkage-one of the first efforts towards a computational approach to biology-relies heavily on the mathematical foundation of crossover and recombination. Nevertheless, as students we often overlook the mathematics of these phenomena. Emphasizing the mathematical aspect of Mendel's laws through crossover and recombination will prepare the students to make an early realization that biology, in addition to being experimental, IS a computational science. This can serve as a first step towards a broader curricular transformation in teaching biological sciences. I will show that a simple and modern treatment of Mendel's laws using a Markov chain will make this step possible, and it will only require basic college-level probability and calculus. My personal teaching experience confirms that students WANT to know Markov chains because they hear about them from bioinformaticists all the time. This entire exposition is based on three homework problems that I designed for a course in computational biology. A typical reader is, therefore, an instructional staff member or a student in a computational field (e.g., computer science, mathematics, statistics, computational biology, bioinformatics). However, other students may easily follow by omitting the

  5. Crossing over...Markov meets Mendel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saad Mneimneh

    Full Text Available Chromosomal crossover is a biological mechanism to combine parental traits. It is perhaps the first mechanism ever taught in any introductory biology class. The formulation of crossover, and resulting recombination, came about 100 years after Mendel's famous experiments. To a great extent, this formulation is consistent with the basic genetic findings of Mendel. More importantly, it provides a mathematical insight for his two laws (and corrects them. From a mathematical perspective, and while it retains similarities, genetic recombination guarantees diversity so that we do not rapidly converge to the same being. It is this diversity that made the study of biology possible. In particular, the problem of genetic mapping and linkage-one of the first efforts towards a computational approach to biology-relies heavily on the mathematical foundation of crossover and recombination. Nevertheless, as students we often overlook the mathematics of these phenomena. Emphasizing the mathematical aspect of Mendel's laws through crossover and recombination will prepare the students to make an early realization that biology, in addition to being experimental, IS a computational science. This can serve as a first step towards a broader curricular transformation in teaching biological sciences. I will show that a simple and modern treatment of Mendel's laws using a Markov chain will make this step possible, and it will only require basic college-level probability and calculus. My personal teaching experience confirms that students WANT to know Markov chains because they hear about them from bioinformaticists all the time. This entire exposition is based on three homework problems that I designed for a course in computational biology. A typical reader is, therefore, an instructional staff member or a student in a computational field (e.g., computer science, mathematics, statistics, computational biology, bioinformatics. However, other students may easily follow by

  6. Bayesian tomography by interacting Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romary, T.

    2017-12-01

    In seismic tomography, we seek to determine the velocity of the undergound from noisy first arrival travel time observations. In most situations, this is an ill posed inverse problem that admits several unperfect solutions. Given an a priori distribution over the parameters of the velocity model, the Bayesian formulation allows to state this problem as a probabilistic one, with a solution under the form of a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is generally high dimensional and may exhibit multimodality. Moreover, as it is known only up to a constant, the only sensible way to addressthis problem is to try to generate simulations from the posterior. The natural tools to perform these simulations are Monte Carlo Markov chains (MCMC). Classical implementations of MCMC algorithms generally suffer from slow mixing: the generated states are slow to enter the stationary regime, that is to fit the observations, and when one mode of the posterior is eventually identified, it may become difficult to visit others. Using a varying temperature parameter relaxing the constraint on the data may help to enter the stationary regime. Besides, the sequential nature of MCMC makes them ill fitted toparallel implementation. Running a large number of chains in parallel may be suboptimal as the information gathered by each chain is not mutualized. Parallel tempering (PT) can be seen as a first attempt to make parallel chains at different temperatures communicate but only exchange information between current states. In this talk, I will show that PT actually belongs to a general class of interacting Markov chains algorithm. I will also show that this class enables to design interacting schemes that can take advantage of the whole history of the chain, by authorizing exchanges toward already visited states. The algorithms will be illustrated with toy examples and an application to first arrival traveltime tomography.

  7. Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua

    2013-06-15

    Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Transient-Switch-Signal Suppressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Circuit delays transmission of switch-opening or switch-closing signal until after preset suppression time. Used to prevent transmission of undesired momentary switch signal. Basic mode of operation simple. Beginning of switch signal initiates timing sequence. If switch signal persists after preset suppression time, circuit transmits switch signal to external circuitry. If switch signal no longer present after suppression time, switch signal deemed transient, and circuit does not pass signal on to external circuitry, as though no transient switch signal. Suppression time preset at value large enough to allow for damping of underlying pressure wave or other mechanical transient.

  9. Detection of bursts in extracellular spike trains using hidden semi-Markov point process models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokdar, Surya; Xi, Peiyi; Kelly, Ryan C; Kass, Robert E

    2010-08-01

    Neurons in vitro and in vivo have epochs of bursting or "up state" activity during which firing rates are dramatically elevated. Various methods of detecting bursts in extracellular spike trains have appeared in the literature, the most widely used apparently being Poisson Surprise (PS). A natural description of the phenomenon assumes (1) there are two hidden states, which we label "burst" and "non-burst," (2) the neuron evolves stochastically, switching at random between these two states, and (3) within each state the spike train follows a time-homogeneous point process. If in (2) the transitions from non-burst to burst and burst to non-burst states are memoryless, this becomes a hidden Markov model (HMM). For HMMs, the state transitions follow exponential distributions, and are highly irregular. Because observed bursting may in some cases be fairly regular-exhibiting inter-burst intervals with small variation-we relaxed this assumption. When more general probability distributions are used to describe the state transitions the two-state point process model becomes a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM). We developed an efficient Bayesian computational scheme to fit HSMMs to spike train data. Numerical simulations indicate the method can perform well, sometimes yielding very different results than those based on PS.

  10. Modeling Uncertainty of Directed Movement via Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YIN Zhangcai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic time geography (PTG is suggested as an extension of (classical time geography, in order to present the uncertainty of an agent located at the accessible position by probability. This may provide a quantitative basis for most likely finding an agent at a location. In recent years, PTG based on normal distribution or Brown bridge has been proposed, its variance, however, is irrelevant with the agent's speed or divergent with the increase of the speed; so they are difficult to take into account application pertinence and stability. In this paper, a new method is proposed to model PTG based on Markov chain. Firstly, a bidirectional conditions Markov chain is modeled, the limit of which, when the moving speed is large enough, can be regarded as the Brown bridge, thus has the characteristics of digital stability. Then, the directed movement is mapped to Markov chains. The essential part is to build step length, the state space and transfer matrix of Markov chain according to the space and time position of directional movement, movement speed information, to make sure the Markov chain related to the movement speed. Finally, calculating continuously the probability distribution of the directed movement at any time by the Markov chains, it can be get the possibility of an agent located at the accessible position. Experimental results show that, the variance based on Markov chains not only is related to speed, but also is tending towards stability with increasing the agent's maximum speed.

  11. Irreversible Local Markov Chains with Rapid Convergence towards Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapfer, Sebastian C.; Krauth, Werner

    2017-12-01

    We study the continuous one-dimensional hard-sphere model and present irreversible local Markov chains that mix on faster time scales than the reversible heat bath or Metropolis algorithms. The mixing time scales appear to fall into two distinct universality classes, both faster than for reversible local Markov chains. The event-chain algorithm, the infinitesimal limit of one of these Markov chains, belongs to the class presenting the fastest decay. For the lattice-gas limit of the hard-sphere model, reversible local Markov chains correspond to the symmetric simple exclusion process (SEP) with periodic boundary conditions. The two universality classes for irreversible Markov chains are realized by the totally asymmetric SEP (TASEP), and by a faster variant (lifted TASEP) that we propose here. We discuss how our irreversible hard-sphere Markov chains generalize to arbitrary repulsive pair interactions and carry over to higher dimensions through the concept of lifted Markov chains and the recently introduced factorized Metropolis acceptance rule.

  12. Optimal switching using coherent control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Philip Trøst; Heuck, Mikkel; Mørk, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    that the switching time, in general, is not limited by the cavity lifetime. Therefore, the total energy required for switching is a more relevant figure of merit than the switching speed, and for a particular two-pulse switching scheme we use calculus of variations to optimize the switching in terms of input energy....

  13. Cost-effectiveness of seven IVF strategies: results of a Markov decision-analytic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiddelers, Audrey A A; Dirksen, Carmen D; Dumoulin, John C M; van Montfoort, Aafke P A; Land, Jolande A; Janssen, J Marij; Evers, Johannes L H; Severens, Johan L

    2009-07-01

    A selective switch to elective single embryo transfer (eSET) in IVF has been suggested to prevent complications of fertility treatment for both mother and infants. We compared seven IVF strategies concerning their cost-effectiveness using a Markov model. The model was based on a three IVF-attempts time horizon and a societal perspective using real world strategies and data, comparing seven IVF strategies, concerning costs, live births and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). In order to increase pregnancy probability, one cycle of eSET + one cycle of standard treatment policy [STP, i.e. eSET in patients IVF treatment, combining several transfer policies was not cost-effective. A choice has to be made between three cycles of eSET, STP or DET. It depends, however, on society's willingness to pay which strategy is to be preferred from a cost-effectiveness point of view.

  14. Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for the CUORE Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Eleanor; Cuore Collaboration

    2017-09-01

    The CUORE experiment is a large-scale bolometric detector seeking to observe the never-before-seen process of neutrinoless double beta decay. Predictions for CUORE's sensitivity to neutrinoless double beta decay allow for an understanding of the half-life ranges that the detector can probe, and also to evaluate the relative importance of different detector parameters. Currently, CUORE uses a Bayesian analysis based in BAT, which uses Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo, for its sensitivity studies. My work evaluates the viability and potential improvements of switching the Bayesian analysis to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, realized through the program Stan and its Morpho interface. I demonstrate that the BAT study can be successfully recreated in Stan, and perform a detailed comparison between the results and computation times of the two methods.

  15. A descriptive model of resting-state networks using Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, H; Pal, R; Mitra, S

    2016-08-01

    Resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) studies considering pairwise linear correlations have attracted great interests while the underlying functional network structure still remains poorly understood. To further our understanding of RSFC, this paper presents an analysis of the resting-state networks (RSNs) based on the steady-state distributions and provides a novel angle to investigate the RSFC of multiple functional nodes. This paper evaluates the consistency of two networks based on the Hellinger distance between the steady-state distributions of the inferred Markov chain models. The results show that generated steady-state distributions of default mode network have higher consistency across subjects than random nodes from various RSNs.

  16. Regime switching model for financial data: Empirical risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salhi, Khaled; Deaconu, Madalina; Lejay, Antoine; Champagnat, Nicolas; Navet, Nicolas

    2016-11-01

    This paper constructs a regime switching model for the univariate Value-at-Risk estimation. Extreme value theory (EVT) and hidden Markov models (HMM) are combined to estimate a hybrid model that takes volatility clustering into account. In the first stage, HMM is used to classify data in crisis and steady periods, while in the second stage, EVT is applied to the previously classified data to rub out the delay between regime switching and their detection. This new model is applied to prices of numerous stocks exchanged on NYSE Euronext Paris over the period 2001-2011. We focus on daily returns for which calibration has to be done on a small dataset. The relative performance of the regime switching model is benchmarked against other well-known modeling techniques, such as stable, power laws and GARCH models. The empirical results show that the regime switching model increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to the number of violations and tail-loss tests. This suggests that the regime switching model is a robust forecasting variant of power laws model while remaining practical to implement the VaR measurement.

  17. Phenotypic switching of populations of cells in a stochastic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufton, Peter G.; Lin, Yen Ting; Galla, Tobias

    2018-02-01

    In biology phenotypic switching is a common bet-hedging strategy in the face of uncertain environmental conditions. Existing mathematical models often focus on periodically changing environments to determine the optimal phenotypic response. We focus on the case in which the environment switches randomly between discrete states. Starting from an individual-based model we derive stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics, and obtain analytical expressions for the mean instantaneous growth rates based on the theory of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We show that optimal phenotypic responses are non-trivial for slow and intermediate environmental processes, and systematically compare the cases of periodic and random environments. The best response to random switching is more likely to be heterogeneity than in the case of deterministic periodic environments, net growth rates tend to be higher under stochastic environmental dynamics. The combined system of environment and population of cells can be interpreted as host-pathogen interaction, in which the host tries to choose environmental switching so as to minimise growth of the pathogen, and in which the pathogen employs a phenotypic switching optimised to increase its growth rate. We discuss the existence of Nash-like mutual best-response scenarios for such host-pathogen games.

  18. Switched reluctance motor drives

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Davis RM, Ray WF, Blake RJ 1981 Inverter drive for switched reluctance: circuits and component ratings. Inst. Elec. Eng. Proc. B128: 126-136. Ehsani M. 1991 Position Sensor elimination technique for the switched reluctance motor drive. US Patent No. 5,072,166. Ehsani M, Ramani K R 1993 Direct control strategies based ...

  19. Manually operated coded switch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnette, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    The disclosure related to a manually operated recodable coded switch in which a code may be inserted, tried and used to actuate a lever controlling an external device. After attempting a code, the switch's code wheels must be returned to their zero positions before another try is made

  20. Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

    2015-01-01

    Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

  1. Markov processes from K. Ito's perspective (AM-155)

    CERN Document Server

    Stroock, Daniel W

    2003-01-01

    Kiyosi Itô''s greatest contribution to probability theory may be his introduction of stochastic differential equations to explain the Kolmogorov-Feller theory of Markov processes. Starting with the geometric ideas that guided him, this book gives an account of Itô''s program. The modern theory of Markov processes was initiated by A. N. Kolmogorov. However, Kolmogorov''s approach was too analytic to reveal the probabilistic foundations on which it rests. In particular, it hides the central role played by the simplest Markov processes: those with independent, identically distributed incremen

  2. Sampling rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitelam, Stephen

    2018-03-01

    We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate functions (and upper bounds on such functions) for dynamical quantities extensive in the length of the Markov chain. We illustrate the method using a series of simple examples, and use it to study the fluctuations of a lattice-based model of active matter that can undergo motility-induced phase separation.

  3. Markov's theorem and algorithmically non-recognizable combinatorial manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shtan'ko, M A

    2004-01-01

    We prove the theorem of Markov on the existence of an algorithmically non-recognizable combinatorial n-dimensional manifold for every n≥4. We construct for the first time a concrete manifold which is algorithmically non-recognizable. A strengthened form of Markov's theorem is proved using the combinatorial methods of regular neighbourhoods and handle theory. The proofs coincide for all n≥4. We use Borisov's group with insoluble word problem. It has two generators and twelve relations. The use of this group forms the base for proving the strengthened form of Markov's theorem

  4. Avalanche photoconductive switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pocha, M. D.; Druce, R. L.; Wilson, M. J.; Hofer, W. W.

    This paper describes work being done at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the avalanche mode of operation of laser triggered photoconductive switches. We have been able to generate pulses with amplitudes of 2 kV to 35 kV and rise times of 300 to 500 ps, and with a switching gain (energy of output electrical pulse vs energy of trigger optical pulse) of 10(exp 3) to over 10(exp 5). Switches with two very different physical configurations and with two different illumination wavelengths (1.06 micrometer, 890 nm) exhibit very similar behavior. The avalanche switching behavior, therefore, appears to be related to the material parameters rather than the optical wavelength or switch geometry. Considerable further work needs to be done to fully characterize and understand this mode of operation.

  5. Avalanche photoconductive switching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pocha, M.D.; Druce, R.L.; Wilson, M.J.; Hofer, W.W.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes work being done at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the avalanche mode of operation of laser triggered photoconductive switches. We have been able to generate pulses with amplitudes of 2 kV--35 kV and rise times of 300--500 ps, and with a switching gain (energy of output electrical pulse vs energy of trigger optical pulse) of 10{sup 3} to over 10{sup 5}. Switches with two very different physical configurations and with two different illumination wavelengths (1.06 {mu}m, 890 nm) exhibit very similar behavior. The avalanche switching behavior, therefore, appears to be related to the material parameters rather than the optical wavelength or switch geometry. Considerable further work needs to be done to fully characterize and understand this mode of operation. 3 refs., 6 figs.

  6. Markov Switching Monetary Policy in a two-country DSGE model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mavromatis, K.

    2013-01-01

    Using real-time data for the US and the Eurozone I find evidence in favor of 1) regime changes in US monetary policy since 1999 and 2) the fact that the responses inflation and output in the Eurozone are sensitive to the regime of US monetary policy. I examine this case theoretically through the

  7. Geolocation of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using Hidden Markov Models and behavioural switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Righton, David; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

    2008-01-01

    provides access to the probability distribution of the position of the fish that in turn provides a range of useful descriptive statistics, such as the path of the most probable movement. We compare the method with existing alternatives and discuss its potential in making population inference from archival...... patterns in depth measurements when a fish spends a prolonged period of time at the seabed with a tidal database. Each day, the method provides a nonparametric probability distribution of the position of a tagged fish and therefore avoids enforcing a particular distribution, such as a Gaussian distribution...

  8. Markov switching monetary policy in a two-country DSGE model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mavromatis, K.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper I show, using both empirical and theoretical analysis, that changes in monetary policy in one country can have important e.ects on other economies. My ew empirical evidence shows that changes in the monetary policy behaviour of the Fed since the start of the Euro, well captured by a

  9. Hidden Markov Models as a tool to measure pilot attention switching during simulated ILS approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-14

    The pilot's instrument scanning data contain information about not only the pilot's eye movements, but also the pilot's : cognitive process during flight. However, it is often difficult to interpret the scanning data at the cognitive level : because:...

  10. Loyalty Switching from Traditional to e-Learning in Indian Higher Education: A Markov Chain Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajasekhar, Mamilla; Anitha, Cuddapah

    2005-01-01

    It is high time for Indian universities to transform themselves from sellers to marketers, though they are non-profit organizations, in marketing their degrees to its customers (students). In this direction e-learning could be one of the tools that helps achieve this objective. The authors in this survey-based article studied the consumers'…

  11. Incremental passivity and output regulation for switched nonlinear systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Hongbo; Zhao, Jun

    2017-10-01

    This paper studies incremental passivity and global output regulation for switched nonlinear systems, whose subsystems are not required to be incrementally passive. A concept of incremental passivity for switched systems is put forward. First, a switched system is rendered incrementally passive by the design of a state-dependent switching law. Second, the feedback incremental passification is achieved by the design of a state-dependent switching law and a set of state feedback controllers. Finally, we show that once the incremental passivity for switched nonlinear systems is assured, the output regulation problem is solved by the design of global nonlinear regulator controllers comprising two components: the steady-state control and the linear output feedback stabilising controllers, even though the problem for none of subsystems is solvable. Two examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  12. Filtering of a Markov Jump Process with Counting Observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ceci, C.; Gerardi, A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper concerns the filtering of an R d -valued Markov pure jump process when only the total number of jumps are observed. Strong and weak uniqueness for the solutions of the filtering equations are discussed

  13. The Independence of Markov's Principle in Type Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coquand, Thierry; Mannaa, Bassel

    2017-01-01

    for the generic point of this model. Instead we design an extension of type theory, which intuitively extends type theory by the addition of a generic point of Cantor space. We then show the consistency of this extension by a normalization argument. Markov's principle does not hold in this extension......In this paper, we show that Markov's principle is not derivable in dependent type theory with natural numbers and one universe. One way to prove this would be to remark that Markov's principle does not hold in a sheaf model of type theory over Cantor space, since Markov's principle does not hold......, and it follows that it cannot be proved in type theory....

  14. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  15. Markov Chain: A Predictive Model for Manpower Planning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, Recruitment, Promotion, .... movement of the workforce in Jordan productivity .... Planning periods, with T being the horizon, the value of t represents a session.

  16. Continuous-time Markov decision processes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Xianping

    2009-01-01

    This volume provides the first book entirely devoted to recent developments on the theory and applications of continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs). The MDPs presented here include most of the cases that arise in applications.

  17. A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (SPHOMMCM) is presented. Moreover, parameter estimation method of TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments shows the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  18. A tridiagonal parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present a tridiagonal parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (TPHOMMCM). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  19. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model. (HMM) based ... the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum ..... data collection teams of Snow and Avalanche Study.

  20. Markov chain: a predictive model for manpower planning | Ezugwu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In respect of organizational management, numerous previous studies have ... and to forecast the academic staff structure of the university in the next five years. ... Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, ...

  1. Linear gate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suwono.

    1978-01-01

    A linear gate providing a variable gate duration from 0,40μsec to 4μsec was developed. The electronic circuity consists of a linear circuit and an enable circuit. The input signal can be either unipolar or bipolar. If the input signal is bipolar, the negative portion will be filtered. The operation of the linear gate is controlled by the application of a positive enable pulse. (author)

  2. A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ye

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.

  3. Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Menla Ali, F; Dimitraki, O

    2014-01-01

    This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower grow...

  4. Energy losses in switches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, T.H.; Seamen, J.F.; Jobe, D.O.

    1993-01-01

    The authors experiments show energy losses between 2 and 10 times that of the resistive time predictions. The experiments used hydrogen, helium, air, nitrogen, SF 6 polyethylene, and water for the switching dielectric. Previously underestimated switch losses have caused over predicting the accelerator outputs. Accurate estimation of these losses is now necessary for new high-efficiency pulsed power devices where the switching losses constitute the major portion of the total energy loss. They found that the switch energy losses scale as (V peak I peak ) 1.1846 . When using this scaling, the energy losses in any of the tested dielectrics are almost the same. This relationship is valid for several orders of magnitude and suggested a theoretical basis for these results. Currents up to .65 MA, with voltages to 3 MV were applied to various gaps during these experiments. The authors data and the developed theory indicates that the switch power loss continues for a much longer time than the resistive time, with peak power loss generally occurring at peak current in a ranging discharge instead of the early current time. All of the experiments were circuit code modeled after developing a new switch loss version based on the theory. The circuit code predicts switch energy loss and peak currents as a function of time. During analysis of the data they noticed slight constant offsets between the theory and data that depended on the dielectric. They modified the plasma conductivity for each tested dielectric to lessen this offset

  5. Linear Accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vretenar, M

    2014-01-01

    The main features of radio-frequency linear accelerators are introduced, reviewing the different types of accelerating structures and presenting the main characteristics aspects of linac beam dynamics

  6. On almost-periodic points of a topological Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogatyi, Semeon A; Redkozubov, Vadim V

    2012-01-01

    We prove that a transitive topological Markov chain has almost-periodic points of all D-periods. Moreover, every D-period is realized by continuously many distinct minimal sets. We give a simple constructive proof of the result which asserts that any transitive topological Markov chain has periodic points of almost all periods, and study the structure of the finite set of positive integers that are not periods.

  7. On mean reward variance in semi-Markov processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 3 (2005), s. 387-397 ISSN 1432-2994 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/05/0115; GA ČR(CZ) GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Markov and semi-Markov processes with rewards * variance of cumulative reward * asymptotic behaviour Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.259, year: 2005

  8. Reliability estimation of semi-Markov systems: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouhbi, Brahim; Limnios, Nikolaos

    1997-01-01

    In this article, we are concerned with the estimation of the reliability and the availability of a turbo-generator rotor using a set of data observed in a real engineering situation provided by Electricite De France (EDF). The rotor is modeled by a semi-Markov process, which is used to estimate the rotor's reliability and availability. To do this, we present a method for estimating the semi-Markov kernel from a censored data

  9. Quantum tomography, phase-space observables and generalized Markov kernels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pellonpaeae, Juha-Pekka

    2009-01-01

    We construct a generalized Markov kernel which transforms the observable associated with the homodyne tomography into a covariant phase-space observable with a regular kernel state. Illustrative examples are given in the cases of a 'Schroedinger cat' kernel state and the Cahill-Glauber s-parametrized distributions. Also we consider an example of a kernel state when the generalized Markov kernel cannot be constructed.

  10. Electromechanical magnetization switching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chudnovsky, Eugene M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Lehman College and Graduate School, The City University of New York, 250 Bedford Park Boulevard West, Bronx, New York 10468-1589 (United States); Jaafar, Reem [Department of Mathematics, Engineering and Computer Science, LaGuardia Community College, The City University of New York, 31-10 Thomson Avenue, Long Island City, New York 11101 (United States)

    2015-03-14

    We show that the magnetization of a torsional oscillator that, in addition to the magnetic moment also possesses an electrical polarization, can be switched by the electric field that ignites mechanical oscillations at the frequency comparable to the frequency of the ferromagnetic resonance. The 180° switching arises from the spin-rotation coupling and is not prohibited by the different symmetry of the magnetic moment and the electric field as in the case of a stationary magnet. Analytical equations describing the system have been derived and investigated numerically. Phase diagrams showing the range of parameters required for the switching have been obtained.

  11. Electromechanical magnetization switching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chudnovsky, Eugene M.; Jaafar, Reem

    2015-01-01

    We show that the magnetization of a torsional oscillator that, in addition to the magnetic moment also possesses an electrical polarization, can be switched by the electric field that ignites mechanical oscillations at the frequency comparable to the frequency of the ferromagnetic resonance. The 180° switching arises from the spin-rotation coupling and is not prohibited by the different symmetry of the magnetic moment and the electric field as in the case of a stationary magnet. Analytical equations describing the system have been derived and investigated numerically. Phase diagrams showing the range of parameters required for the switching have been obtained

  12. JUNOS Enterprise Switching

    CERN Document Server

    Reynolds, Harry

    2009-01-01

    JUNOS Enterprise Switching is the only detailed technical book on Juniper Networks' new Ethernet-switching EX product platform. With this book, you'll learn all about the hardware and ASIC design prowess of the EX platform, as well as the JUNOS Software that powers it. Not only is this extremely practical book a useful, hands-on manual to the EX platform, it also makes an excellent study guide for certification exams in the JNTCP enterprise tracks. The authors have based JUNOS Enterprise Switching on their own Juniper training practices and programs, as well as the configuration, maintenanc

  13. Switch mode power supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hui Jun

    1993-06-01

    This book concentrates on switch mode power supply. It has four parts, which are introduction of switch mode power supply with DC-DC converter such as Buck converter boost converter, Buck-boost converter and PWM control circuit, explanation for SMPS with DC-DC converter modeling and power mode control, resonance converter like resonance switch, converter, multi resonance converter and series resonance and parallel resonance converters, basic test of SMPS with PWM control circuit, Buck converter, Boost converter, flyback converter, forward converter and IC for control circuit.

  14. Linearization Method and Linear Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Hidema

    We focus on the relationship between the linearization method and linear complexity and show that the linearization method is another effective technique for calculating linear complexity. We analyze its effectiveness by comparing with the logic circuit method. We compare the relevant conditions and necessary computational cost with those of the Berlekamp-Massey algorithm and the Games-Chan algorithm. The significant property of a linearization method is that it needs no output sequence from a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) because it calculates linear complexity using the algebraic expression of its algorithm. When a PRNG has n [bit] stages (registers or internal states), the necessary computational cost is smaller than O(2n). On the other hand, the Berlekamp-Massey algorithm needs O(N2) where N(≅2n) denotes period. Since existing methods calculate using the output sequence, an initial value of PRNG influences a resultant value of linear complexity. Therefore, a linear complexity is generally given as an estimate value. On the other hand, a linearization method calculates from an algorithm of PRNG, it can determine the lower bound of linear complexity.

  15. Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrzoskowicz, Adam

    1993-11-01

    This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.

  16. Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyet Nguyen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hidden Markov model (HMM is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI, industrial production index (INDPRO, stock market index (S&P 500 and market volatility (VIX. At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.

  17. Stability and perturbations of countable Markov maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Thomas; Munday, Sara; Sahlsten, Tuomas

    2018-04-01

    Let T and , , be countable Markov maps such that the branches of converge pointwise to the branches of T, as . We study the stability of various quantities measuring the singularity (dimension, Hölder exponent etc) of the topological conjugacy between and T when . This is a well-understood problem for maps with finitely-many branches, and the quantities are stable for small ɛ, that is, they converge to their expected values if . For the infinite branch case their stability might be expected to fail, but we prove that even in the infinite branch case the quantity is stable under some natural regularity assumptions on and T (under which, for instance, the Hölder exponent of fails to be stable). Our assumptions apply for example in the case of Gauss map, various Lüroth maps and accelerated Manneville-Pomeau maps when varying the parameter α. For the proof we introduce a mass transportation method from the cusp that allows us to exploit thermodynamical ideas from the finite branch case. Dedicated to the memory of Bernd O Stratmann

  18. Lectures from Markov processes to Brownian motion

    CERN Document Server

    Chung, Kai Lai

    1982-01-01

    This book evolved from several stacks of lecture notes written over a decade and given in classes at slightly varying levels. In transforming the over­ lapping material into a book, I aimed at presenting some of the best features of the subject with a minimum of prerequisities and technicalities. (Needless to say, one man's technicality is another's professionalism. ) But a text frozen in print does not allow for the latitude of the classroom; and the tendency to expand becomes harder to curb without the constraints of time and audience. The result is that this volume contains more topics and details than I had intended, but I hope the forest is still visible with the trees. The book begins at the beginning with the Markov property, followed quickly by the introduction of option al times and martingales. These three topics in the discrete parameter setting are fully discussed in my book A Course In Probability Theory (second edition, Academic Press, 1974). The latter will be referred to throughout this book ...

  19. Markov branching in the vertex splitting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefánsson, Sigurdur Örn

    2012-01-01

    We study a special case of the vertex splitting model which is a recent model of randomly growing trees. For any finite maximum vertex degree D, we find a one parameter model, with parameter α element of [0,1] which has a so-called Markov branching property. When D=∞ we find a two parameter model with an additional parameter γ element of [0,1] which also has this feature. In the case D = 3, the model bears resemblance to Ford's α-model of phylogenetic trees and when D=∞ it is similar to its generalization, the αγ-model. For α = 0, the model reduces to the well known model of preferential attachment. In the case α > 0, we prove convergence of the finite volume probability measures, generated by the growth rules, to a measure on infinite trees which is concentrated on the set of trees with a single spine. We show that the annealed Hausdorff dimension with respect to the infinite volume measure is 1/α. When γ = 0 the model reduces to a model of growing caterpillar graphs in which case we prove that the Hausdorff dimension is almost surely 1/α and that the spectral dimension is almost surely 2/(1 + α). We comment briefly on the distribution of vertex degrees and correlations between degrees of neighbouring vertices

  20. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  1. Markov source model for printed music decoding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopec, Gary E.; Chou, Philip A.; Maltz, David A.

    1995-03-01

    This paper describes a Markov source model for a simple subset of printed music notation. The model is based on the Adobe Sonata music symbol set and a message language of our own design. Chord imaging is the most complex part of the model. Much of the complexity follows from a rule of music typography that requires the noteheads for adjacent pitches to be placed on opposite sides of the chord stem. This rule leads to a proliferation of cases for other typographic details such as dot placement. We describe the language of message strings accepted by the model and discuss some of the imaging issues associated with various aspects of the message language. We also point out some aspects of music notation that appear problematic for a finite-state representation. Development of the model was greatly facilitated by the duality between image synthesis and image decoding. Although our ultimate objective was a music image model for use in decoding, most of the development proceeded by using the evolving model for image synthesis, since it is computationally far less costly to image a message than to decode an image.

  2. NonMarkov Ito Processes with 1- state memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2010-08-01

    A Markov process, by definition, cannot depend on any previous state other than the last observed state. An Ito process implies the Fokker-Planck and Kolmogorov backward time partial differential eqns. for transition densities, which in turn imply the Chapman-Kolmogorov eqn., but without requiring the Markov condition. We present a class of Ito process superficially resembling Markov processes, but with 1-state memory. In finance, such processes would obey the efficient market hypothesis up through the level of pair correlations. These stochastic processes have been mislabeled in recent literature as 'nonlinear Markov processes'. Inspired by Doob and Feller, who pointed out that the ChapmanKolmogorov eqn. is not restricted to Markov processes, we exhibit a Gaussian Ito transition density with 1-state memory in the drift coefficient that satisfies both of Kolmogorov's partial differential eqns. and also the Chapman-Kolmogorov eqn. In addition, we show that three of the examples from McKean's seminal 1966 paper are also nonMarkov Ito processes. Last, we show that the transition density of the generalized Black-Scholes type partial differential eqn. describes a martingale, and satisfies the ChapmanKolmogorov eqn. This leads to the shortest-known proof that the Green function of the Black-Scholes eqn. with variable diffusion coefficient provides the so-called martingale measure of option pricing.

  3. Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin

    2016-01-01

    This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis

  4. Probability distributions for Markov chain based quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balu, Radhakrishnan; Liu, Chaobin; Venegas-Andraca, Salvador E.

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the probability distributions of the quantum walks induced from Markov chains by Szegedy (2004). The first part of this paper is devoted to the quantum walks induced from finite state Markov chains. It is shown that the probability distribution on the states of the underlying Markov chain is always convergent in the Cesaro sense. In particular, we deduce that the limiting distribution is uniform if the transition matrix is symmetric. In the case of a non-symmetric Markov chain, we exemplify that the limiting distribution of the quantum walk is not necessarily identical with the stationary distribution of the underlying irreducible Markov chain. The Szegedy scheme can be extended to infinite state Markov chains (random walks). In the second part, we formulate the quantum walk induced from a lazy random walk on the line. We then obtain the weak limit of the quantum walk. It is noted that the current quantum walk appears to spread faster than its counterpart-quantum walk on the line driven by the Grover coin discussed in literature. The paper closes with an outlook on possible future directions.

  5. Euclidean and Minkowski space formulations of linearized gravitational potential in various gauges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, S.C.

    1979-01-01

    We show that there exists a unitary map connecting linearized theories of gravitational potential in vacuum, formulated in various covariant gauges and noncovariant radiation gauge. The free Euclidean gravitational potentials in covariant gauges satisfy the Markov property of Nelson, but are nonreflexive. For the noncovariant radiation gauge, the corresponding Euclidean field is reflexive but it only satisfies the Markov property with respect to special half spaces. The Feynman--Kac--Nelson formula is established for the Euclidean gravitational potential in radiation gauge

  6. Linear algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Said-Houari, Belkacem

    2017-01-01

    This self-contained, clearly written textbook on linear algebra is easily accessible for students. It begins with the simple linear equation and generalizes several notions from this equation for the system of linear equations and introduces the main ideas using matrices. It then offers a detailed chapter on determinants and introduces the main ideas with detailed proofs. The third chapter introduces the Euclidean spaces using very simple geometric ideas and discusses various major inequalities and identities. These ideas offer a solid basis for understanding general Hilbert spaces in functional analysis. The following two chapters address general vector spaces, including some rigorous proofs to all the main results, and linear transformation: areas that are ignored or are poorly explained in many textbooks. Chapter 6 introduces the idea of matrices using linear transformation, which is easier to understand than the usual theory of matrices approach. The final two chapters are more advanced, introducing t...

  7. Asteroid mass estimation with Markov-chain Monte Carlo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siltala, Lauri; Granvik, Mikael

    2017-10-01

    Estimates for asteroid masses are based on their gravitational perturbations on the orbits of other objects such as Mars, spacecraft, or other asteroids and/or their satellites. In the case of asteroid-asteroid perturbations, this leads to a 13-dimensional inverse problem at minimum where the aim is to derive the mass of the perturbing asteroid and six orbital elements for both the perturbing asteroid and the test asteroid by fitting their trajectories to their observed positions. The fitting has typically been carried out with linearized methods such as the least-squares method. These methods need to make certain assumptions regarding the shape of the probability distributions of the model parameters. This is problematic as these assumptions have not been validated. We have developed a new Markov-chain Monte Carlo method for mass estimation which does not require an assumption regarding the shape of the parameter distribution. Recently, we have implemented several upgrades to our MCMC method including improved schemes for handling observational errors and outlier data alongside the option to consider multiple perturbers and/or test asteroids simultaneously. These upgrades promise significantly improved results: based on two separate results for (19) Fortuna with different test asteroids we previously hypothesized that simultaneous use of both test asteroids would lead to an improved result similar to the average literature value for (19) Fortuna with substantially reduced uncertainties. Our upgraded algorithm indeed finds a result essentially equal to the literature value for this asteroid, confirming our previous hypothesis. Here we show these new results for (19) Fortuna and other example cases, and compare our results to previous estimates. Finally, we discuss our plans to improve our algorithm further, particularly in connection with Gaia.

  8. Decoding and modelling of time series count data using Poisson hidden Markov model and Markov ordinal logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Tunny; Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Anandan, Shalini; George, Sebastian; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I

    2018-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are stochastic models in which the observations are assumed to follow a mixture distribution, but the parameters of the components are governed by a Markov chain which is unobservable. The issues related to the estimation of Poisson-hidden Markov models in which the observations are coming from mixture of Poisson distributions and the parameters of the component Poisson distributions are governed by an m-state Markov chain with an unknown transition probability matrix are explained here. These methods were applied to the data on Vibrio cholerae counts reported every month for 11-year span at Christian Medical College, Vellore, India. Using Viterbi algorithm, the best estimate of the state sequence was obtained and hence the transition probability matrix. The mean passage time between the states were estimated. The 95% confidence interval for the mean passage time was estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. The three hidden states of the estimated Markov chain are labelled as 'Low', 'Moderate' and 'High' with the mean counts of 1.4, 6.6 and 20.2 and the estimated average duration of stay of 3, 3 and 4 months, respectively. Environmental risk factors were studied using Markov ordinal logistic regression analysis. No significant association was found between disease severity levels and climate components.

  9. Neural Network Based Finite-Time Stabilization for Discrete-Time Markov Jump Nonlinear Systems with Time Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the finite-time stabilization problem for discrete-time Markov jump nonlinear systems with time delays and norm-bounded exogenous disturbance. The nonlinearities in different jump modes are parameterized by neural networks. Subsequently, a linear difference inclusion state space representation for a class of neural networks is established. Based on this, sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee stochastic finite-time boundedness and stochastic finite-time stabilization of the closed-loop system. A numerical example is illustrated to verify the efficiency of the proposed technique.

  10. Switched periodic systems in discrete time: stability and input-output norms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolzern, Paolo; Colaneri, Patrizio

    2013-07-01

    This paper deals with the analysis of stability and the characterisation of input-output norms for discrete-time periodic switched linear systems. Such systems consist of a network of time-periodic linear subsystems sharing the same state vector and an exogenous switching signal that triggers the jumps between the subsystems. The overall system exhibits a complex dynamic behaviour due to the interplay between the time periodicity of the subsystem parameters and the switching signal. Both arbitrary switching signals and signals satisfying a dwell-time constraint are considered. Linear matrix inequality conditions for stability and guaranteed H2 and H∞ performances are provided. The results heavily rely on the merge of the theory of linear periodic systems and recent developments on switched linear time-invariant systems.

  11. Analysis of the trajectory surface hopping method from the Markov state model perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimov, Alexey V.; Wang, Linjun; Prezhdo, Oleg V.; Trivedi, Dhara

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the applicability of the seminal fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) method of Tully to modeling quantum transitions between electronic states that are not coupled directly, in the processes such as Auger recombination. We address the known deficiency of the method to describe such transitions by introducing an alternative definition for the surface hopping probabilities, as derived from the Markov state model perspective. We show that the resulting transition probabilities simplify to the quantum state populations derived from the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, reducing to the rapidly switching surface hopping approach of Tully and Preston. The resulting surface hopping scheme is simple and appeals to the fundamentals of quantum mechanics. The computational approach is similar to the FSSH method of Tully, yet it leads to a notably different performance. We demonstrate that the method is particularly accurate when applied to superexchange modeling. We further show improved accuracy of the method, when applied to one of the standard test problems. Finally, we adapt the derived scheme to atomistic simulation, combine it with the time-domain density functional theory, and show that it provides the Auger energy transfer timescales which are in good agreement with experiment, significantly improving upon other considered techniques. (author)

  12. Optical switching systems using nanostructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stubkjær, Kristian

    2004-01-01

    High capacity multiservice optical networks require compact and efficient switches. The potential benefits of optical switch elements based on nanostructured material are reviewed considering various material systems.......High capacity multiservice optical networks require compact and efficient switches. The potential benefits of optical switch elements based on nanostructured material are reviewed considering various material systems....

  13. Linear algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Stoll, R R

    1968-01-01

    Linear Algebra is intended to be used as a text for a one-semester course in linear algebra at the undergraduate level. The treatment of the subject will be both useful to students of mathematics and those interested primarily in applications of the theory. The major prerequisite for mastering the material is the readiness of the student to reason abstractly. Specifically, this calls for an understanding of the fact that axioms are assumptions and that theorems are logical consequences of one or more axioms. Familiarity with calculus and linear differential equations is required for understand

  14. Linear programming

    CERN Document Server

    Solow, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    This text covers the basic theory and computation for a first course in linear programming, including substantial material on mathematical proof techniques and sophisticated computation methods. Includes Appendix on using Excel. 1984 edition.

  15. Linear algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Liesen, Jörg

    2015-01-01

    This self-contained textbook takes a matrix-oriented approach to linear algebra and presents a complete theory, including all details and proofs, culminating in the Jordan canonical form and its proof. Throughout the development, the applicability of the results is highlighted. Additionally, the book presents special topics from applied linear algebra including matrix functions, the singular value decomposition, the Kronecker product and linear matrix equations. The matrix-oriented approach to linear algebra leads to a better intuition and a deeper understanding of the abstract concepts, and therefore simplifies their use in real world applications. Some of these applications are presented in detailed examples. In several ‘MATLAB-Minutes’ students can comprehend the concepts and results using computational experiments. Necessary basics for the use of MATLAB are presented in a short introduction. Students can also actively work with the material and practice their mathematical skills in more than 300 exerc...

  16. Linear algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Berberian, Sterling K

    2014-01-01

    Introductory treatment covers basic theory of vector spaces and linear maps - dimension, determinants, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors - plus more advanced topics such as the study of canonical forms for matrices. 1992 edition.

  17. Linear Models

    CERN Document Server

    Searle, Shayle R

    2012-01-01

    This 1971 classic on linear models is once again available--as a Wiley Classics Library Edition. It features material that can be understood by any statistician who understands matrix algebra and basic statistical methods.

  18. Linear system identification via backward-time observer models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juang, Jer-Nan; Phan, Minh

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents an algorithm to identify a state-space model of a linear system using a backward-time approach. The procedure consists of three basic steps. First, the Markov parameters of a backward-time observer are computed from experimental input-output data. Second, the backward-time observer Markov parameters are decomposed to obtain the backward-time system Markov parameters (backward-time pulse response samples) from which a backward-time state-space model is realized using the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm. Third, the obtained backward-time state space model is converted to the usual forward-time representation. Stochastic properties of this approach will be discussed. Experimental results are given to illustrate when and to what extent this concept works.

  19. LINEAR ACCELERATOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christofilos, N.C.; Polk, I.J.

    1959-02-17

    Improvements in linear particle accelerators are described. A drift tube system for a linear ion accelerator reduces gap capacity between adjacent drift tube ends. This is accomplished by reducing the ratio of the diameter of the drift tube to the diameter of the resonant cavity. Concentration of magnetic field intensity at the longitudinal midpoint of the external sunface of each drift tube is reduced by increasing the external drift tube diameter at the longitudinal center region.

  20. Rotation Impact of Reed Switch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Yun Bum; Lee, Jae Seon; Kim, Jong Wook; Han, Eun Sil; Park, Hee June

    2016-01-01

    A CRDM (Control Rod Drive Mechanism) is an electromagnetic device which drives a control rod assembly linearly to regulate the reactivity of a nuclear core. A RPIS (Rod Position Indication System) is used as a position indicator of a control rod assembly for a CRDM of a nuclear reactor, SMART. A highly accurate RPIS for SMART is required because the reactivity of a nuclear core for a small modular reactor is more sensitive than the commercial ones. In this study, the effect of positioning direction of the reeds in a reed switch for the CRDM RPIS has been studied using the electromagnetic FE analysis. It is found that the positioning direction of the reeds slightly but not significantly affects the formation of attraction. Analysis results will be used as the basis on estimated accuracy of full RPIS system.