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Sample records for markov models hmm

  1. Speech-To-Text Conversion STT System Using Hidden Markov Model HMM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Myat Mon

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Speech is an easiest way to communicate with each other. Speech processing is widely used in many applications like security devices household appliances cellular phones ATM machines and computers. The human computer interface has been developed to communicate or interact conveniently for one who is suffering from some kind of disabilities. Speech-to-Text Conversion STT systems have a lot of benefits for the deaf or dumb people and find their applications in our daily lives. In the same way the aim of the system is to convert the input speech signals into the text output for the deaf or dumb students in the educational fields. This paper presents an approach to extract features by using Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients MFCC from the speech signals of isolated spoken words. And Hidden Markov Model HMM method is applied to train and test the audio files to get the recognized spoken word. The speech database is created by using MATLAB.Then the original speech signals are preprocessed and these speech samples are extracted to the feature vectors which are used as the observation sequences of the Hidden Markov Model HMM recognizer. The feature vectors are analyzed in the HMM depending on the number of states.

  2. HMM-based Trust Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ElSalamouny, Ehab; Nielsen, Mogens; Sassone, Vladimiro

    2010-01-01

    Probabilistic trust has been adopted as an approach to taking security sensitive decisions in modern global computing environments. Existing probabilistic trust frameworks either assume fixed behaviour for the principals or incorporate the notion of ‘decay' as an ad hoc approach to cope...... with their dynamic behaviour. Using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) for both modelling and approximating the behaviours of principals, we introduce the HMM-based trust model as a new approach to evaluating trust in systems exhibiting dynamic behaviour. This model avoids the fixed behaviour assumption which is considered...... the major limitation of existing Beta trust model. We show the consistency of the HMM-based trust model and contrast it against the well known Beta trust model with the decay principle in terms of the estimation precision....

  3. HMM-ModE – Improved classification using profile hidden Markov models by optimising the discrimination threshold and modifying emission probabilities with negative training sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandi Soumyadeep

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile Hidden Markov Models (HMM are statistical representations of protein families derived from patterns of sequence conservation in multiple alignments and have been used in identifying remote homologues with considerable success. These conservation patterns arise from fold specific signals, shared across multiple families, and function specific signals unique to the families. The availability of sequences pre-classified according to their function permits the use of negative training sequences to improve the specificity of the HMM, both by optimizing the threshold cutoff and by modifying emission probabilities to minimize the influence of fold-specific signals. A protocol to generate family specific HMMs is described that first constructs a profile HMM from an alignment of the family's sequences and then uses this model to identify sequences belonging to other classes that score above the default threshold (false positives. Ten-fold cross validation is used to optimise the discrimination threshold score for the model. The advent of fast multiple alignment methods enables the use of the profile alignments to align the true and false positive sequences, and the resulting alignments are used to modify the emission probabilities in the original model. Results The protocol, called HMM-ModE, was validated on a set of sequences belonging to six sub-families of the AGC family of kinases. These sequences have an average sequence similarity of 63% among the group though each sub-group has a different substrate specificity. The optimisation of discrimination threshold, by using negative sequences scored against the model improves specificity in test cases from an average of 21% to 98%. Further discrimination by the HMM after modifying model probabilities using negative training sequences is provided in a few cases, the average specificity rising to 99%. Similar improvements were obtained with a sample of G-Protein coupled receptors

  4. Metode Linear Predictive Coding (LPC Pada klasifikasi Hidden Markov Model (HMM Untuk Kata Arabic pada penutur Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ririn Kusumawati

    2016-05-01

    In the classification, using Hidden Markov Model, voice signal is analyzed and searched the maximum possible value that can be recognized. The modeling results obtained parameters are used to compare with the sound of Arabic speakers. From the test results' Classification, Hidden Markov Models with Linear Predictive Coding extraction average accuracy of 78.6% for test data sampling frequency of 8,000 Hz, 80.2% for test data sampling frequency of 22050 Hz, 79% for frequencies sampling test data at 44100 Hz.

  5. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  6. Study on solitary word based on HMM model and Baum-Welch algorithm

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    Junxia CHEN

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the principle of Hidden Markov Model, which is used to describe the Markov process with unknown parameters, is a probability model to describe the statistical properties of the random process. On this basis, designed a solitary word detection experiment based on HMM model, by optimizing the experimental model, Using Baum-Welch algorithm for training the problem of solving the HMM model, HMM model to estimate the parameters of the λ value is found, in this view of mathematics equivalent to other linear prediction coefficient. This experiment in reducing unnecessary HMM training at the same time, reduced the algorithm complexity. In order to test the effectiveness of the Baum-Welch algorithm, The simulation of experimental data, the results show that the algorithm is effective.

  7. HMMEditor: a visual editing tool for profile hidden Markov model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Jianlin

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a powerful statistical model to represent a family of DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. Profile HMM has been widely used in bioinformatics research such as sequence alignment, gene structure prediction, motif identification, protein structure prediction, and biological database search. However, few comprehensive, visual editing tools for profile HMM are publicly available. Results We develop a visual editor for profile Hidden Markov Models (HMMEditor. HMMEditor can visualize the profile HMM architecture, transition probabilities, and emission probabilities. Moreover, it provides functions to edit and save HMM and parameters. Furthermore, HMMEditor allows users to align a sequence against the profile HMM and to visualize the corresponding Viterbi path. Conclusion HMMEditor provides a set of unique functions to visualize and edit a profile HMM. It is a useful tool for biological sequence analysis and modeling. Both HMMEditor software and web service are freely available.

  8. Neuroevolution Mechanism for Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a statistical model based on probabilities. HMM is becoming one of the major models involved in many applications such as natural language
    processing, handwritten recognition, image processing, prediction systems and many more. In this research we are concerned with finding out the best HMM for a certain application domain. We propose a neuroevolution process that is based first on converting the HMM to a neural network, then generating many neural networks at random where each represents a HMM. We proceed by
    applying genetic operators to obtain new set of neural networks where each represents HMMs, and updating the population. Finally select the best neural network based on a fitness function.

  9. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  10. Genetic Algorithms Principles Towards Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a general approach based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs to evolve Hidden Markov Models (HMM. The problem appears when experts assign probability values for HMM, they use only some limited inputs. The assigned probability values might not be accurate to serve in other cases related to the same domain. We introduce an approach based on GAs to find
    out the suitable probability values for the HMM to be mostly correct in more cases than what have been used to assign the probability values.

  11. Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

  12. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model. (HMM) based ... the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum ..... data collection teams of Snow and Avalanche Study.

  13. Hidden Markov models for labeled sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1994-01-01

    A hidden Markov model for labeled observations, called a class HMM, is introduced and a maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Instead of training it to model the statistics of the training sequences it is trained to optimize recognition. It resembles MMI...

  14. HMM Adaptation for child speech synthesis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Govender, Avashna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based synthesis in combination with speaker adaptation has proven to be an approach that is well-suited for child speech synthesis. This paper describes the development and evaluation of different HMM-based child speech...

  15. Evolving the structure of hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    won, K. J.; Prugel-Bennett, A.; Krogh, A.

    2006-01-01

    A genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed for finding the structure of hidden Markov Models (HMMs) used for biological sequence analysis. The GA is designed to preserve biologically meaningful building blocks. The search through the space of HMM structures is combined with optimization of the emission...... and transition probabilities using the classic Baum-Welch algorithm. The system is tested on the problem of finding the promoter and coding region of C. jejuni. The resulting HMM has a superior discrimination ability to a handcrafted model that has been published in the literature....

  16. Improved hidden Markov model for nosocomial infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, Karim; Leecaster, Molly; Greene, Tom; Samore, Matthew; Thomas, Alun

    2014-12-01

    We propose a novel hidden Markov model (HMM) for parameter estimation in hospital transmission models, and show that commonly made simplifying assumptions can lead to severe model misspecification and poor parameter estimates. A standard HMM that embodies two commonly made simplifying assumptions, namely a fixed patient count and binomially distributed detections is compared with a new alternative HMM that does not require these simplifying assumptions. Using simulated data, we demonstrate how each of the simplifying assumptions used by the standard model leads to model misspecification, whereas the alternative model results in accurate parameter estimates. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

  17. A Constraint Model for Constrained Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp

    2009-01-01

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we extend HMMs with constraints and show how the familiar Viterbi algorithm can be generalized, based on constraint solving ...

  18. A Bayesian Approach for Structural Learning with Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cen Li

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Models(HMM have proved to be a successful modeling paradigm for dynamic and spatial processes in many domains, such as speech recognition, genomics, and general sequence alignment. Typically, in these applications, the model structures are predefined by domain experts. Therefore, the HMM learning problem focuses on the learning of the parameter values of the model to fit the given data sequences. However, when one considers other domains, such as, economics and physiology, model structure capturing the system dynamic behavior is not available. In order to successfully apply the HMM methodology in these domains, it is important that a mechanism is available for automatically deriving the model structure from the data. This paper presents a HMM learning procedure that simultaneously learns the model structure and the maximum likelihood parameter values of a HMM from data. The HMM model structures are derived based on the Bayesian model selection methodology. In addition, we introduce a new initialization procedure for HMM parameter value estimation based on the K-means clustering method. Experimental results with artificially generated data show the effectiveness of the approach.

  19. Markov model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology,. Kharagpur ... the most accepted method for modelling LULCC using current .... We used UTM coordinate system with zone 45 .... need to develop criteria for making decision about.

  20. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  1. Accelerated Profile HMM Searches.

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    Sean R Eddy

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Profile hidden Markov models (profile HMMs and probabilistic inference methods have made important contributions to the theory of sequence database homology search. However, practical use of profile HMM methods has been hindered by the computational expense of existing software implementations. Here I describe an acceleration heuristic for profile HMMs, the "multiple segment Viterbi" (MSV algorithm. The MSV algorithm computes an optimal sum of multiple ungapped local alignment segments using a striped vector-parallel approach previously described for fast Smith/Waterman alignment. MSV scores follow the same statistical distribution as gapped optimal local alignment scores, allowing rapid evaluation of significance of an MSV score and thus facilitating its use as a heuristic filter. I also describe a 20-fold acceleration of the standard profile HMM Forward/Backward algorithms using a method I call "sparse rescaling". These methods are assembled in a pipeline in which high-scoring MSV hits are passed on for reanalysis with the full HMM Forward/Backward algorithm. This accelerated pipeline is implemented in the freely available HMMER3 software package. Performance benchmarks show that the use of the heuristic MSV filter sacrifices negligible sensitivity compared to unaccelerated profile HMM searches. HMMER3 is substantially more sensitive and 100- to 1000-fold faster than HMMER2. HMMER3 is now about as fast as BLAST for protein searches.

  2. An Efficient Algorithm for Modelling Duration in Hidden Markov Models, with a Dramatic Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauberg, Søren; Sloth, Jakob

    2008-01-01

    For many years, the hidden Markov model (HMM) has been one of the most popular tools for analysing sequential data. One frequently used special case is the left-right model, in which the order of the hidden states is known. If knowledge of the duration of a state is available it is not possible...... to represent it explicitly with an HMM. Methods for modelling duration with HMM's do exist (Rabiner in Proc. IEEE 77(2):257---286, [1989]), but they come at the price of increased computational complexity. Here we present an efficient and robust algorithm for modelling duration in HMM's, and this algorithm...

  3. Name segmentation using hidden Markov models and its application in record linkage

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    Rita de Cassia Braga Gonçalves

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the use of hidden Markov models (HMM for the segmentation of person names and its influence on record linkage. A HMM was applied to the segmentation of patient’s and mother’s names in the databases of the Mortality Information System (SIM, Information Subsystem for High Complexity Procedures (APAC, and Hospital Information System (AIH. A sample of 200 patients from each database was segmented via HMM, and the results were compared to those from segmentation by the authors. The APAC-SIM and APAC-AIH databases were linked using three different segmentation strategies, one of which used HMM. Conformity of segmentation via HMM varied from 90.5% to 92.5%. The different segmentation strategies yielded similar results in the record linkage process. This study suggests that segmentation of Brazilian names via HMM is no more effective than traditional segmentation approaches in the linkage process.

  4. Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrzoskowicz, Adam

    1993-11-01

    This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.

  5. HMM_Model-Checker pour la vérification probabiliste HMM_Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ASSIA

    probabiliste –Télescope Hubble. Abstract. Probabilistic verification for embedded systems continues to attract more and more followers in the research community. Given a probabilistic model, a formula of temporal logic, describing a property of a system and an exploration algorithm to check whether the property is satisfied ...

  6. Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyet Nguyen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hidden Markov model (HMM is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI, industrial production index (INDPRO, stock market index (S&P 500 and market volatility (VIX. At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.

  7. Inference with constrained hidden Markov models in PRISM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp

    2010-01-01

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. De......_different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment.......A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference...

  8. Using hidden Markov models to align multiple sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mount, David W

    2009-07-01

    A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a probabilistic model of a multiple sequence alignment (msa) of proteins. In the model, each column of symbols in the alignment is represented by a frequency distribution of the symbols (called a "state"), and insertions and deletions are represented by other states. One moves through the model along a particular path from state to state in a Markov chain (i.e., random choice of next move), trying to match a given sequence. The next matching symbol is chosen from each state, recording its probability (frequency) and also the probability of going to that state from a previous one (the transition probability). State and transition probabilities are multiplied to obtain a probability of the given sequence. The hidden nature of the HMM is due to the lack of information about the value of a specific state, which is instead represented by a probability distribution over all possible values. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of HMMs in msa and presents algorithms for calculating an HMM and the conditions for producing the best HMM.

  9. Hidden Neural Networks: A Framework for HMM/NN Hybrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents a general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMM) and neural networks (NN). In the new framework called hidden neural networks (HNN) the usual HMM probability parameters are replaced by neural network outputs. To ensure a probabilistic interpretation the HNN is nor...... HMMs on TIMIT continuous speech recognition benchmarks. On the task of recognizing five broad phoneme classes an accuracy of 84% is obtained compared to 76% for a standard HMM. Additionally, we report a preliminary result of 69% accuracy on the TIMIT 39 phoneme task...

  10. A Framework for Bioacoustic Vocalization Analysis Using Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebenezer Out-Nyarko

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs as a recognition framework for automatic classification of animal vocalizations has a number of benefits, including the ability to handle duration variability through nonlinear time alignment, the ability to incorporate complex language or recognition constraints, and easy extendibility to continuous recognition and detection domains. In this work, we apply HMMs to several different species and bioacoustic tasks using generalized spectral features that can be easily adjusted across species and HMM network topologies suited to each task. This experimental work includes a simple call type classification task using one HMM per vocalization for repertoire analysis of Asian elephants, a language-constrained song recognition task using syllable models as base units for ortolan bunting vocalizations, and a stress stimulus differentiation task in poultry vocalizations using a non-sequential model via a one-state HMM with Gaussian mixtures. Results show strong performance across all tasks and illustrate the flexibility of the HMM framework for a variety of species, vocalization types, and analysis tasks.

  11. Two-Stage Hidden Markov Model in Gesture Recognition for Human Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhan Nguyen-Duc-Thanh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is very rich in mathematical structure and hence can form the theoretical basis for use in a wide range of applications including gesture representation. Most research in this field, however, uses only HMM for recognizing simple gestures, while HMM can definitely be applied for whole gesture meaning recognition. This is very effectively applicable in Human-Robot Interaction (HRI. In this paper, we introduce an approach for HRI in which not only the human can naturally control the robot by hand gesture, but also the robot can recognize what kind of task it is executing. The main idea behind this method is the 2-stages Hidden Markov Model. The 1st HMM is to recognize the prime command-like gestures. Based on the sequence of prime gestures that are recognized from the 1st stage and which represent the whole action, the 2nd HMM plays a role in task recognition. Another contribution of this paper is that we use the output Mixed Gaussian distribution in HMM to improve the recognition rate. In the experiment, we also complete a comparison of the different number of hidden states and mixture components to obtain the optimal one, and compare to other methods to evaluate this performance.

  12. Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management Using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on

  13. Activity recognition using semi-Markov models on real world smart home datasets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kasteren, T.L.M.; Englebienne, G.; Kröse, B.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    Accurately recognizing human activities from sensor data recorded in a smart home setting is a challenging task. Typically, probabilistic models such as the hidden Markov model (HMM) or conditional random fields (CRF) are used to map the observed sensor data onto the hidden activity states. A

  14. Understanding eye movements in face recognition using hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuk, Tim; Chan, Antoni B; Hsiao, Janet H

    2014-09-16

    We use a hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach to analyze eye movement data in face recognition. HMMs are statistical models that are specialized in handling time-series data. We conducted a face recognition task with Asian participants, and model each participant's eye movement pattern with an HMM, which summarized the participant's scan paths in face recognition with both regions of interest and the transition probabilities among them. By clustering these HMMs, we showed that participants' eye movements could be categorized into holistic or analytic patterns, demonstrating significant individual differences even within the same culture. Participants with the analytic pattern had longer response times, but did not differ significantly in recognition accuracy from those with the holistic pattern. We also found that correct and wrong recognitions were associated with distinctive eye movement patterns; the difference between the two patterns lies in the transitions rather than locations of the fixations alone. © 2014 ARVO.

  15. A Self-Adaptive Hidden Markov Model for Emotion Classification in Chinese Microblogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Liu

    2015-01-01

    we propose a modified version of hidden Markov model (HMM classifier, called self-adaptive HMM, whose parameters are optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization algorithms. Since manually labeling large-scale dataset is difficult, we also employ the entropy to decide whether a new unlabeled tweet shall be contained in the training dataset after being assigned an emotion using our HMM-based approach. In the experiment, we collected about 200,000 Chinese tweets from Sina Weibo. The results show that the F-score of our approach gets 76% on happiness and fear and 65% on anger, surprise, and sadness. In addition, the self-adaptive HMM classifier outperforms Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine on recognition of happiness, anger, and sadness.

  16. Geolocating fish using Hidden Markov Models and Data Storage Tags

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Geolocation of fish based on data from archival tags typically requires a statistical analysis to reduce the effect of measurement errors. In this paper we present a novel technique for this analysis, one based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM's). We assume that the actual path of the fish is generated...... by a biased random walk. The HMM methodology produces, for each time step, the probability that the fish resides in each grid cell. Because there is no Monte Carlo step in our technique, we are able to estimate parameters within the likelihood framework. The method does not require the distribution...... of inference in state-space models of animals. The technique can be applied to geolocation based on light, on tidal patterns, or measurement of other variables that vary with space. We illustrate the method through application to a simulated data set where geolocation relies on depth data exclusively....

  17. Enhanced Map-Matching Algorithm with a Hidden Markov Model for Mobile Phone Positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An Luo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Numerous map-matching techniques have been developed to improve positioning, using Global Positioning System (GPS data and other sensors. However, most existing map-matching algorithms process GPS data with high sampling rates, to achieve a higher correct rate and strong universality. This paper introduces a novel map-matching algorithm based on a hidden Markov model (HMM for GPS positioning and mobile phone positioning with a low sampling rate. The HMM is a statistical model well known for providing solutions to temporal recognition applications such as text and speech recognition. In this work, the hidden Markov chain model was built to establish a map-matching process, using the geometric data, the topologies matrix of road links in road network and refined quad-tree data structure. HMM-based map-matching exploits the Viterbi algorithm to find the optimized road link sequence. The sequence consists of hidden states in the HMM model. The HMM-based map-matching algorithm is validated on a vehicle trajectory using GPS and mobile phone data. The results show a significant improvement in mobile phone positioning and high and low sampling of GPS data.

  18. Accelerating Information Retrieval from Profile Hidden Markov Model Databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamimi, Ahmad; Ashhab, Yaqoub; Tamimi, Hashem

    2016-01-01

    Profile Hidden Markov Model (Profile-HMM) is an efficient statistical approach to represent protein families. Currently, several databases maintain valuable protein sequence information as profile-HMMs. There is an increasing interest to improve the efficiency of searching Profile-HMM databases to detect sequence-profile or profile-profile homology. However, most efforts to enhance searching efficiency have been focusing on improving the alignment algorithms. Although the performance of these algorithms is fairly acceptable, the growing size of these databases, as well as the increasing demand for using batch query searching approach, are strong motivations that call for further enhancement of information retrieval from profile-HMM databases. This work presents a heuristic method to accelerate the current profile-HMM homology searching approaches. The method works by cluster-based remodeling of the database to reduce the search space, rather than focusing on the alignment algorithms. Using different clustering techniques, 4284 TIGRFAMs profiles were clustered based on their similarities. A representative for each cluster was assigned. To enhance sensitivity, we proposed an extended step that allows overlapping among clusters. A validation benchmark of 6000 randomly selected protein sequences was used to query the clustered profiles. To evaluate the efficiency of our approach, speed and recall values were measured and compared with the sequential search approach. Using hierarchical, k-means, and connected component clustering techniques followed by the extended overlapping step, we obtained an average reduction in time of 41%, and an average recall of 96%. Our results demonstrate that representation of profile-HMMs using a clustering-based approach can significantly accelerate data retrieval from profile-HMM databases.

  19. Accelerating Information Retrieval from Profile Hidden Markov Model Databases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Tamimi

    Full Text Available Profile Hidden Markov Model (Profile-HMM is an efficient statistical approach to represent protein families. Currently, several databases maintain valuable protein sequence information as profile-HMMs. There is an increasing interest to improve the efficiency of searching Profile-HMM databases to detect sequence-profile or profile-profile homology. However, most efforts to enhance searching efficiency have been focusing on improving the alignment algorithms. Although the performance of these algorithms is fairly acceptable, the growing size of these databases, as well as the increasing demand for using batch query searching approach, are strong motivations that call for further enhancement of information retrieval from profile-HMM databases. This work presents a heuristic method to accelerate the current profile-HMM homology searching approaches. The method works by cluster-based remodeling of the database to reduce the search space, rather than focusing on the alignment algorithms. Using different clustering techniques, 4284 TIGRFAMs profiles were clustered based on their similarities. A representative for each cluster was assigned. To enhance sensitivity, we proposed an extended step that allows overlapping among clusters. A validation benchmark of 6000 randomly selected protein sequences was used to query the clustered profiles. To evaluate the efficiency of our approach, speed and recall values were measured and compared with the sequential search approach. Using hierarchical, k-means, and connected component clustering techniques followed by the extended overlapping step, we obtained an average reduction in time of 41%, and an average recall of 96%. Our results demonstrate that representation of profile-HMMs using a clustering-based approach can significantly accelerate data retrieval from profile-HMM databases.

  20. Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups

    OpenAIRE

    Raghavan, Vasanthan; Galstyan, Aram; Tartakovsky, Alexander G.

    2012-01-01

    The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of $d=2$ corresponds to the case where the dynamics are coarsely quantized as Active and Inactive, re...

  1. Appropriate baseline values for HMM-based speech recognition

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Barnard, E

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available A number of issues realted to the development of speech-recognition systems with Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are discussed. A set of systematic experiments using the HTK toolkit and the TMIT database are used to elucidate matters such as the number...

  2. Monthly streamflow forecasting based on hidden Markov model and Gaussian Mixture Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yongqi; Ye, Lei; Qin, Hui; Hong, Xiaofeng; Ye, Jiajun; Yin, Xingli

    2018-06-01

    Reliable streamflow forecasts can be highly valuable for water resources planning and management. In this study, we combined a hidden Markov model (HMM) and Gaussian Mixture Regression (GMR) for probabilistic monthly streamflow forecasting. The HMM is initialized using a kernelized K-medoids clustering method, and the Baum-Welch algorithm is then executed to learn the model parameters. GMR derives a conditional probability distribution for the predictand given covariate information, including the antecedent flow at a local station and two surrounding stations. The performance of HMM-GMR was verified based on the mean square error and continuous ranked probability score skill scores. The reliability of the forecasts was assessed by examining the uniformity of the probability integral transform values. The results show that HMM-GMR obtained reasonably high skill scores and the uncertainty spread was appropriate. Different HMM states were assumed to be different climate conditions, which would lead to different types of observed values. We demonstrated that the HMM-GMR approach can handle multimodal and heteroscedastic data.

  3. Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. de; Souza e Silva, Edmundo A. de; Legey, Luiz F.L.

    2010-01-01

    The crude oil price is influenced by a great number of factors, most of which interact in very complex ways. For this reason, forecasting it through a fundamentalist approach is a difficult task. An alternative is to use time series methodologies, with which the price's past behavior is conveniently analyzed, and used to predict future movements. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of a nonlinear time series model, known as hidden Markov model (HMM), to predict future crude oil price movements. Using an HMM, we develop a forecasting methodology that consists of, basically, three steps. First, we employ wavelet analysis to remove high frequency price movements, which can be assumed as noise. Then, the HMM is used to forecast the probability distribution of the price return accumulated over the next F days. Finally, from this distribution, we infer future price trends. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology might be a useful decision support tool for agents participating in the crude oil market. (author)

  4. Modeling promoter grammars with evolving hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Won, Kyoung-Jae; Sandelin, Albin; Marstrand, Troels Torben

    2008-01-01

    MOTIVATION: Describing and modeling biological features of eukaryotic promoters remains an important and challenging problem within computational biology. The promoters of higher eukaryotes in particular display a wide variation in regulatory features, which are difficult to model. Often several...... factors are involved in the regulation of a set of co-regulated genes. If so, promoters can be modeled with connected regulatory features, where the network of connections is characteristic for a particular mode of regulation. RESULTS: With the goal of automatically deciphering such regulatory structures......, we present a method that iteratively evolves an ensemble of regulatory grammars using a hidden Markov Model (HMM) architecture composed of interconnected blocks representing transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) and background regions of promoter sequences. The ensemble approach reduces the risk...

  5. HMM Logos for visualization of protein families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schultz Jörg

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile Hidden Markov Models (pHMMs are a widely used tool for protein family research. Up to now, however, there exists no method to visualize all of their central aspects graphically in an intuitively understandable way. Results We present a visualization method that incorporates both emission and transition probabilities of the pHMM, thus extending sequence logos introduced by Schneider and Stephens. For each emitting state of the pHMM, we display a stack of letters. The stack height is determined by the deviation of the position's letter emission frequencies from the background frequencies. The stack width visualizes both the probability of reaching the state (the hitting probability and the expected number of letters the state emits during a pass through the model (the state's expected contribution. A web interface offering online creation of HMM Logos and the corresponding source code can be found at the Logos web server of the Max Planck Institute for Molecular Genetics http://logos.molgen.mpg.de. Conclusions We demonstrate that HMM Logos can be a useful tool for the biologist: We use them to highlight differences between two homologous subfamilies of GTPases, Rab and Ras, and we show that they are able to indicate structural elements of Ras.

  6. A Method for Driving Route Predictions Based on Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ye

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a driving route prediction method that is based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM. This method can accurately predict a vehicle’s entire route as early in a trip’s lifetime as possible without inputting origins and destinations beforehand. Firstly, we propose the route recommendation system architecture, where route predictions play important role in the system. Secondly, we define a road network model, normalize each of driving routes in the rectangular coordinate system, and build the HMM to make preparation for route predictions using a method of training set extension based on K-means++ and the add-one (Laplace smoothing technique. Thirdly, we present the route prediction algorithm. Finally, the experimental results of the effectiveness of the route predictions that is based on HMM are shown.

  7. Detecting Seismic Events Using a Supervised Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burks, L.; Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Young, C.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the use of supervised hidden Markov models (HMMs) to detect seismic events in streaming seismogram data. Current methods for seismic event detection include simple triggering algorithms, such as STA/LTA and the Z-statistic, which can lead to large numbers of false positives that must be investigated by an analyst. The hypothesis of this study is that more advanced detection methods, such as HMMs, may decreases false positives while maintaining accuracy similar to current methods. We train a binary HMM classifier using 2 weeks of 3-component waveform data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) that was carefully reviewed by an expert analyst to pick all seismic events. Using an ensemble of simple and discrete features, such as the triggering of STA/LTA, the HMM predicts the time at which transition occurs from noise to signal. Compared to the STA/LTA detection algorithm, the HMM detects more true events, but the false positive rate remains unacceptably high. Future work to potentially decrease the false positive rate may include using continuous features, a Gaussian HMM, and multi-class HMMs to distinguish between types of seismic waves (e.g., P-waves and S-waves). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.SAND No: SAND2017-8154 A

  8. Generalized Markov branching models

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Junping

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis, we first considered a modified Markov branching process incorporating both state-independent immigration and resurrection. After establishing the criteria for regularity and uniqueness, explicit expressions for the extinction probability and mean extinction time are presented. The criteria for recurrence and ergodicity are also established. In addition, an explicit expression for the equilibrium distribution is presented.\\ud \\ud We then moved on to investigate the basic proper...

  9. Markov Models for Handwriting Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Plotz, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Since their first inception, automatic reading systems have evolved substantially, yet the recognition of handwriting remains an open research problem due to its substantial variation in appearance. With the introduction of Markovian models to the field, a promising modeling and recognition paradigm was established for automatic handwriting recognition. However, no standard procedures for building Markov model-based recognizers have yet been established. This text provides a comprehensive overview of the application of Markov models in the field of handwriting recognition, covering both hidden

  10. An HMM-Like Dynamic Time Warping Scheme for Automatic Speech Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing-Jr Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past, the kernel of automatic speech recognition (ASR is dynamic time warping (DTW, which is feature-based template matching and belongs to the category technique of dynamic programming (DP. Although DTW is an early developed ASR technique, DTW has been popular in lots of applications. DTW is playing an important role for the known Kinect-based gesture recognition application now. This paper proposed an intelligent speech recognition system using an improved DTW approach for multimedia and home automation services. The improved DTW presented in this work, called HMM-like DTW, is essentially a hidden Markov model- (HMM- like method where the concept of the typical HMM statistical model is brought into the design of DTW. The developed HMM-like DTW method, transforming feature-based DTW recognition into model-based DTW recognition, will be able to behave as the HMM recognition technique and therefore proposed HMM-like DTW with the HMM-like recognition model will have the capability to further perform model adaptation (also known as speaker adaptation. A series of experimental results in home automation-based multimedia access service environments demonstrated the superiority and effectiveness of the developed smart speech recognition system by HMM-like DTW.

  11. An Analysis and Implementation of the Hidden Markov Model to Technology Stock Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyet Nguyen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Future stock prices depend on many internal and external factors that are not easy to evaluate. In this paper, we use the Hidden Markov Model, (HMM, to predict a daily stock price of three active trading stocks: Apple, Google, and Facebook, based on their historical data. We first use the Akaike information criterion (AIC and Bayesian information criterion (BIC to choose the numbers of states from HMM. We then use the models to predict close prices of these three stocks using both single observation data and multiple observation data. Finally, we use the predictions as signals for trading these stocks. The criteria tests’ results showed that HMM with two states worked the best among two, three and four states for the three stocks. Our results also demonstrate that the HMM outperformed the naïve method in forecasting stock prices. The results also showed that active traders using HMM got a higher return than using the naïve forecast for Facebook and Google stocks. The stock price prediction method has a significant impact on stock trading and derivative hedging.

  12. A Two-Channel Training Algorithm for Hidden Markov Model and Its Application to Lip Reading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foo Say Wei

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov model (HMM has been a popular mathematical approach for sequence classification such as speech recognition since 1980s. In this paper, a novel two-channel training strategy is proposed for discriminative training of HMM. For the proposed training strategy, a novel separable-distance function that measures the difference between a pair of training samples is adopted as the criterion function. The symbol emission matrix of an HMM is split into two channels: a static channel to maintain the validity of the HMM and a dynamic channel that is modified to maximize the separable distance. The parameters of the two-channel HMM are estimated by iterative application of expectation-maximization (EM operations. As an example of the application of the novel approach, a hierarchical speaker-dependent visual speech recognition system is trained using the two-channel HMMs. Results of experiments on identifying a group of confusable visemes indicate that the proposed approach is able to increase the recognition accuracy by an average of 20% compared with the conventional HMMs that are trained with the Baum-Welch estimation.

  13. A Markov reward model checker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.; Maneesh Khattri, M.; Zapreev, I.S.; Zapreev, I.S.

    2005-01-01

    This short tool paper introduces MRMC, a model checker for discrete-time and continuous-time Markov reward models. It supports reward extensions of PCTL and CSL, and allows for the automated verification of properties concerning long-run and instantaneous rewards as well as cumulative rewards. In

  14. Belief Bisimulation for Hidden Markov Models Logical Characterisation and Decision Algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, David N.; Nielson, Flemming; Zhang, Lijun

    2012-01-01

    This paper establishes connections between logical equivalences and bisimulation relations for hidden Markov models (HMM). Both standard and belief state bisimulations are considered. We also present decision algorithms for the bisimilarities. For standard bisimilarity, an extension of the usual...... partition refinement algorithm is enough. Belief bisimilarity, being a relation on the continuous space of belief states, cannot be described directly. Instead, we show how to generate a linear equation system in time cubic in the number of states....

  15. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  16. An HMM posterior decoder for sequence feature prediction that includes homology information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Käll, Lukas; Krogh, Anders Stærmose; Sonnhammer, Erik L. L.

    2005-01-01

    Motivation: When predicting sequence features like transmembrane topology, signal peptides, coil-coil structures, protein secondary structure or genes, extra support can be gained from homologs. Results: We present here a general hidden Markov model (HMM) decoding algorithm that combines probabil......Motivation: When predicting sequence features like transmembrane topology, signal peptides, coil-coil structures, protein secondary structure or genes, extra support can be gained from homologs. Results: We present here a general hidden Markov model (HMM) decoding algorithm that combines......://phobius.cgb.ki.se/poly.html . An implementation of the algorithm is available on request from the authors....

  17. Hidden Markov modelling of movement data from fish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver

    Movement data from marine animals tagged with electronic tags are becoming increasingly diverse and plentiful. This trend entails a need for statistical methods that are able to filter the observations to extract the ecologically relevant content. This dissertation focuses on the development...... the behaviour of the animal. With the extended model can migratory and resident movement behaviour be related to geographical regions. For population inference multiple individual state-space analyses can be interconnected using mixed effects modelling. This framework provides parameter estimates...... approximated. This furthermore enables accurate probability densities of location to be computed. Finally, the performance of the HMM approach in analysing nonlinear state space models is compared with two alternatives: the AD Model Builder framework and BUGS, which relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo...

  18. Efficient view based 3-D object retrieval using Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Yogendra Kumar; Singh, Roshan Kumar

    2013-12-01

    Recent research effort has been dedicated to view based 3-D object retrieval, because of highly discriminative property of 3-D object and has multi view representation. The state-of-art method is highly depending on their own camera array setting for capturing views of 3-D object and use complex Zernike descriptor, HAC for representative view selection which limit their practical application and make it inefficient for retrieval. Therefore, an efficient and effective algorithm is required for 3-D Object Retrieval. In order to move toward a general framework for efficient 3-D object retrieval which is independent of camera array setting and avoidance of representative view selection, we propose an Efficient View Based 3-D Object Retrieval (EVBOR) method using Hidden Markov Model (HMM). In this framework, each object is represented by independent set of view, which means views are captured from any direction without any camera array restriction. In this, views are clustered (including query view) to generate the view cluster, which is then used to build the query model with HMM. In our proposed method, HMM is used in twofold: in the training (i.e. HMM estimate) and in the retrieval (i.e. HMM decode). The query model is trained by using these view clusters. The EVBOR query model is worked on the basis of query model combining with HMM. The proposed approach remove statically camera array setting for view capturing and can be apply for any 3-D object database to retrieve 3-D object efficiently and effectively. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme has shown better performance than existing methods. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

  19. Optical character recognition of handwritten Arabic using hidden Markov models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aulama, Mohannad M.; Natsheh, Asem M.; Abandah, Gheith A.; Olama, Mohammed M.

    2011-04-01

    The problem of optical character recognition (OCR) of handwritten Arabic has not received a satisfactory solution yet. In this paper, an Arabic OCR algorithm is developed based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) combined with the Viterbi algorithm, which results in an improved and more robust recognition of characters at the sub-word level. Integrating the HMMs represents another step of the overall OCR trends being currently researched in the literature. The proposed approach exploits the structure of characters in the Arabic language in addition to their extracted features to achieve improved recognition rates. Useful statistical information of the Arabic language is initially extracted and then used to estimate the probabilistic parameters of the mathematical HMM. A new custom implementation of the HMM is developed in this study, where the transition matrix is built based on the collected large corpus, and the emission matrix is built based on the results obtained via the extracted character features. The recognition process is triggered using the Viterbi algorithm which employs the most probable sequence of sub-words. The model was implemented to recognize the sub-word unit of Arabic text raising the recognition rate from being linked to the worst recognition rate for any character to the overall structure of the Arabic language. Numerical results show that there is a potentially large recognition improvement by using the proposed algorithms.

  20. Mobile Application Identification based on Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Xinyan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing number of mobile applications, there has more challenging network management tasks to resolve. Users also face security issues of the mobile Internet application when enjoying the mobile network resources. Identifying applications that correspond to network traffic can help network operators effectively perform network management. The existing mobile application recognition technology presents new challenges in extensibility and applications with encryption protocols. For the existing mobile application recognition technology, there are two problems, they can not recognize the application which using the encryption protocol and their scalability is poor. In this paper, a mobile application identification method based on Hidden Markov Model(HMM is proposed to extract the defined statistical characteristics from different network flows generated when each application starting. According to the time information of different network flows to get the corresponding time series, and then for each application to be identified separately to establish the corresponding HMM model. Then, we use 10 common applications to test the method proposed in this paper. The test results show that the mobile application recognition method proposed in this paper has a high accuracy and good generalization ability.

  1. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  2. A hidden Markov model approach for determining expression from genomic tiling micro arrays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krogh Anders

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic tiling micro arrays have great potential for identifying previously undiscovered coding as well as non-coding transcription. To-date, however, analyses of these data have been performed in an ad hoc fashion. Results We present a probabilistic procedure, ExpressHMM, that adaptively models tiling data prior to predicting expression on genomic sequence. A hidden Markov model (HMM is used to model the distributions of tiling array probe scores in expressed and non-expressed regions. The HMM is trained on sets of probes mapped to regions of annotated expression and non-expression. Subsequently, prediction of transcribed fragments is made on tiled genomic sequence. The prediction is accompanied by an expression probability curve for visual inspection of the supporting evidence. We test ExpressHMM on data from the Cheng et al. (2005 tiling array experiments on ten Human chromosomes 1. Results can be downloaded and viewed from our web site 2. Conclusion The value of adaptive modelling of fluorescence scores prior to categorisation into expressed and non-expressed probes is demonstrated. Our results indicate that our adaptive approach is superior to the previous analysis in terms of nucleotide sensitivity and transfrag specificity.

  3. Hidden Markov modeling of frequency-following responses to Mandarin lexical tones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llanos, Fernando; Xie, Zilong; Chandrasekaran, Bharath

    2017-11-01

    The frequency-following response (FFR) is a scalp-recorded electrophysiological potential reflecting phase-locked activity from neural ensembles in the auditory system. The FFR is often used to assess the robustness of subcortical pitch processing. Due to low signal-to-noise ratio at the single-trial level, FFRs are typically averaged across thousands of stimulus repetitions. Prior work using this approach has shown that subcortical encoding of linguistically-relevant pitch patterns is modulated by long-term language experience. We examine the extent to which a machine learning approach using hidden Markov modeling (HMM) can be utilized to decode Mandarin tone-categories from scalp-record electrophysiolgical activity. We then assess the extent to which the HMM can capture biologically-relevant effects (language experience-driven plasticity). To this end, we recorded FFRs to four Mandarin tones from 14 adult native speakers of Chinese and 14 of native English. We trained a HMM to decode tone categories from the FFRs with varying size of averages. Tone categories were decoded with above-chance accuracies using HMM. The HMM derived metric (decoding accuracy) revealed a robust effect of language experience, such that FFRs from native Chinese speakers yielded greater accuracies than native English speakers. Critically, the language experience-driven plasticity was captured with average sizes significantly smaller than those used in the extant literature. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of HMM in assessing the robustness of neural pitch. Machine-learning approaches can complement extant analytical methods that capture auditory function and could reduce the number of trials needed to capture biological phenomena. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. QRS complex detection based on continuous density hidden Markov models using univariate observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotelo, S.; Arenas, W.; Altuve, M.

    2018-04-01

    In the electrocardiogram (ECG), the detection of QRS complexes is a fundamental step in the ECG signal processing chain since it allows the determination of other characteristics waves of the ECG and provides information about heart rate variability. In this work, an automatic QRS complex detector based on continuous density hidden Markov models (HMM) is proposed. HMM were trained using univariate observation sequences taken either from QRS complexes or their derivatives. The detection approach is based on the log-likelihood comparison of the observation sequence with a fixed threshold. A sliding window was used to obtain the observation sequence to be evaluated by the model. The threshold was optimized by receiver operating characteristic curves. Sensitivity (Sen), specificity (Spc) and F1 score were used to evaluate the detection performance. The approach was validated using ECG recordings from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. A 6-fold cross-validation shows that the best detection performance was achieved with 2 states HMM trained with QRS complexes sequences (Sen = 0.668, Spc = 0.360 and F1 = 0.309). We concluded that these univariate sequences provide enough information to characterize the QRS complex dynamics from HMM. Future works are directed to the use of multivariate observations to increase the detection performance.

  5. Post processing of optically recognized text via second order hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poudel, Srijana

    In this thesis, we describe a postprocessing system on Optical Character Recognition(OCR) generated text. Second Order Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used to detect and correct the OCR related errors. The reason for choosing the 2nd order HMM is to keep track of the bigrams so that the model can represent the system more accurately. Based on experiments with training data of 159,733 characters and testing of 5,688 characters, the model was able to correct 43.38 % of the errors with a precision of 75.34 %. However, the precision value indicates that the model introduced some new errors, decreasing the correction percentage to 26.4%.

  6. Passive acoustic leak detection for sodium cooled fast reactors using hidden Markov models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riber Marklund, A. [CEA, Cadarache, DEN/DTN/STCP/LIET, Batiment 202, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance, (France); Kishore, S. [Fast Reactor Technology Group of IGCAR, (India); Prakash, V. [Vibrations Diagnostics Division, Fast Reactor Technology Group of IGCAR, (India); Rajan, K.K. [Fast Reactor Technology Group and Engineering Services Group of IGCAR, (India)

    2015-07-01

    Acoustic leak detection for steam generators of sodium fast reactors have been an active research topic since the early 1970's and several methods have been tested over the years. Inspired by its success in the field of automatic speech recognition, we here apply hidden Markov models (HMM) in combination with Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to the problem. To achieve this, we propose a new feature calculation scheme, based on the temporal evolution of the power spectral density (PSD) of the signal. Using acoustic signals recorded during steam/water injection experiments done at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), the proposed method is tested. We perform parametric studies on the HMM+GMM model size and demonstrate that the proposed method a) performs well without a priori knowledge of injection noise, b) can incorporate several noise models and c) has an output distribution that simplifies false alarm rate control. (authors)

  7. Electricity Price Forecast Using Combined Models with Adaptive Weights Selected and Errors Calibrated by Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined forecast with weights adaptively selected and errors calibrated by Hidden Markov model (HMM is proposed to model the day-ahead electricity price. Firstly several single models were built to forecast the electricity price separately. Then the validation errors from every individual model were transformed into two discrete sequences: an emission sequence and a state sequence to build the HMM, obtaining a transmission matrix and an emission matrix, representing the forecasting ability state of the individual models. The combining weights of the individual models were decided by the state transmission matrixes in HMM and the best predict sample ratio of each individual among all the models in the validation set. The individual forecasts were averaged to get the combining forecast with the weights obtained above. The residuals of combining forecast were calibrated by the possible error calculated by the emission matrix of HMM. A case study of day-ahead electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM, USA, suggests that the proposed method outperforms individual techniques of price forecasting, such as support vector machine (SVM, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, day-ahead modeling, and self-organized map (SOM similar days modeling.

  8. Objective measures to improve the selection of training speakers in HMM-based child speech synthesis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Govender, Avashna

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Building synthetic child voices is considered a difficult task due to the challenges associated with data collection. As a result, speaker adaptation in conjunction with Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based synthesis has become prevalent in this domain...

  9. Damage evaluation by a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Hanfei; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Zhang, Jinjin

    2016-02-01

    Guided wave based structural health monitoring has shown great potential in aerospace applications. However, one of the key challenges of practical engineering applications is the accurate interpretation of the guided wave signals under time-varying environmental and operational conditions. This paper presents a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method to improve the damage evaluation reliability of real aircraft structures under time-varying conditions. In the proposed approach, an HMM based unweighted moving average trend estimation method, which can capture the trend of damage propagation from the posterior probability obtained by HMM modeling is used to achieve a probabilistic evaluation of the structural damage. To validate the developed method, experiments are performed on a hole-edge crack specimen under fatigue loading condition and a real aircraft wing spar under changing structural boundary conditions. Experimental results show the advantage of the proposed method.

  10. Non-intrusive gesture recognition system combining with face detection based on Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jing; Wang, Yuanqing; Xu, Liujing; Cao, Liqun; Han, Lei; Zhou, Biye; Li, Minggao

    2014-11-01

    A non-intrusive gesture recognition human-machine interaction system is proposed in this paper. In order to solve the hand positioning problem which is a difficulty in current algorithms, face detection is used for the pre-processing to narrow the search area and find user's hand quickly and accurately. Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used for gesture recognition. A certain number of basic gesture units are trained as HMM models. At the same time, an improved 8-direction feature vector is proposed and used to quantify characteristics in order to improve the detection accuracy. The proposed system can be applied in interaction equipments without special training for users, such as household interactive television

  11. Multi-category micro-milling tool wear monitoring with continuous hidden Markov models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kunpeng; Wong, Yoke San; Hong, Geok Soon

    2009-02-01

    In-process monitoring of tool conditions is important in micro-machining due to the high precision requirement and high tool wear rate. Tool condition monitoring in micro-machining poses new challenges compared to conventional machining. In this paper, a multi-category classification approach is proposed for tool flank wear state identification in micro-milling. Continuous Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are adapted for modeling of the tool wear process in micro-milling, and estimation of the tool wear state given the cutting force features. For a noise-robust approach, the HMM outputs are connected via a medium filter to minimize the tool state before entry into the next state due to high noise level. A detailed study on the selection of HMM structures for tool condition monitoring (TCM) is presented. Case studies on the tool state estimation in the micro-milling of pure copper and steel demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of these methods.

  12. A first approach to Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy detection through ECG and Hidden Markov Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez-Serrano, S.; Sanz Sanchez, J.; Martínez Hinarejos, C.D.; Igual Muñoz, B.; Millet Roig, J.; Zorio Grima, Z.; Castells, F.

    2016-07-01

    Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy (ACM) is a heritable cardiac disease causing sudden cardiac death in young people. Its clinical diagnosis includes major and minor criteria based on alterations of the electrocardiogram (ECG). The aim of this study is to evaluate Hidden Markov Models (HMM) in order to assess its possible potential of classification among subjects affected by ACM and those relatives who do not suffer the disease through 12-lead ECG recordings. Database consists of 12-lead ECG recordings from 32 patients diagnosed with ACM, and 37 relatives of those affected, but without gene mutation. Using the HTK toolkit and a hold-out strategy in order to train and evaluate a set of HMM models, we performed a grid search through the number of states and Gaussians across these HMM models. Results show that two different HMM models achieved the best balance between sensibility and specificity. The first one needed 35 states and 2 Gaussians and its performance was 0.7 and 0.8 in sensibility and specificity respectively. The second one achieved a sensibility and specificity values of 0.8 and 0.7 respectively with 50 states and 4 Gaussians. The results of this study show that HMM models can achieve an acceptable level of sensibility and specificity in the classification among ECG registers between those affected by ACM and the control group. All the above suggest that this approach could help to detect the disease in a non-invasive way, especially within the context of family screening, improving sensitivity in detection by ECG. (Author)

  13. Criterion of Semi-Markov Dependent Risk Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yun MO; Xiang Qun YANG

    2014-01-01

    A rigorous definition of semi-Markov dependent risk model is given. This model is a generalization of the Markov dependent risk model. A criterion and necessary conditions of semi-Markov dependent risk model are obtained. The results clarify relations between elements among semi-Markov dependent risk model more clear and are applicable for Markov dependent risk model.

  14. Strong convective storm nowcasting using a hybrid approach of convolutional neural network and hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Ling; Han, Lei

    2018-04-01

    Convective storm nowcasting refers to the prediction of the convective weather initiation, development, and decay in a very short term (typically 0 2 h) .Despite marked progress over the past years, severe convective storm nowcasting still remains a challenge. With the boom of machine learning, it has been well applied in various fields, especially convolutional neural network (CNN). In this paper, we build a servere convective weather nowcasting system based on CNN and hidden Markov model (HMM) using reanalysis meteorological data. The goal of convective storm nowcasting is to predict if there is a convective storm in 30min. In this paper, we compress the VDRAS reanalysis data to low-dimensional data by CNN as the observation vector of HMM, then obtain the development trend of strong convective weather in the form of time series. It shows that, our method can extract robust features without any artificial selection of features, and can capture the development trend of strong convective storm.

  15. ANALYTIC WORD RECOGNITION WITHOUT SEGMENTATION BASED ON MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coisy, C.; Belaid, A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, a method for analytic handwritten word recognition based on causal Markov random fields is described. The words models are HMMs where each state corresponds to a letter; each letter is modelled by a NSHP­HMM (Markov field). Global models are build dynamically, and used for recognition

  16. Hidden Markov model analysis of maternal behavior patterns in inbred and reciprocal hybrid mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria Carola

    Full Text Available Individual variation in maternal care in mammals shows a significant heritable component, with the maternal behavior of daughters resembling that of their mothers. In laboratory mice, genetically distinct inbred strains show stable differences in maternal care during the first postnatal week. Moreover, cross fostering and reciprocal breeding studies demonstrate that differences in maternal care between inbred strains persist in the absence of genetic differences, demonstrating a non-genetic or epigenetic contribution to maternal behavior. In this study we applied a mathematical tool, called hidden Markov model (HMM, to analyze the behavior of female mice in the presence of their young. The frequency of several maternal behaviors in mice has been previously described, including nursing/grooming pups and tending to the nest. However, the ordering, clustering, and transitions between these behaviors have not been systematically described and thus a global description of maternal behavior is lacking. Here we used HMM to describe maternal behavior patterns in two genetically distinct mouse strains, C57BL/6 and BALB/c, and their genetically identical reciprocal hybrid female offspring. HMM analysis is a powerful tool to identify patterns of events that cluster in time and to determine transitions between these clusters, or hidden states. For the HMM analysis we defined seven states: arched-backed nursing, blanket nursing, licking/grooming pups, grooming, activity, eating, and sleeping. By quantifying the frequency, duration, composition, and transition probabilities of these states we were able to describe the pattern of maternal behavior in mouse and identify aspects of these patterns that are under genetic and nongenetic inheritance. Differences in these patterns observed in the experimental groups (inbred and hybrid females were detected only after the application of HMM analysis whereas classical statistical methods and analyses were not able to

  17. Using features of local densities, statistics and HMM toolkit (HTK for offline Arabic handwriting text recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El Moubtahij Hicham

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical approach of an offline handwritten Arabic text recognition system. It is based on the Hidden Markov Models (HMM Toolkit (HTK without explicit segmentation. The first phase is preprocessing, where the data is introduced in the system after quality enhancements. Then, a set of characteristics (features of local densities and features statistics are extracted by using the technique of sliding windows. Subsequently, the resulting feature vectors are injected to the Hidden Markov Model Toolkit (HTK. The simple database “Arabic-Numbers” and IFN/ENIT are used to evaluate the performance of this system. Keywords: Hidden Markov Models (HMM Toolkit (HTK, Sliding windows

  18. A stochastic HMM-based forecasting model for fuzzy time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng-Tun; Cheng, Yi-Chung

    2010-10-01

    Recently, fuzzy time series have attracted more academic attention than traditional time series due to their capability of dealing with the uncertainty and vagueness inherent in the data collected. The formulation of fuzzy relations is one of the key issues affecting forecasting results. Most of the present works adopt IF-THEN rules for relationship representation, which leads to higher computational overhead and rule redundancy. Sullivan and Woodall proposed a Markov-based formulation and a forecasting model to reduce computational overhead; however, its applicability is limited to handling one-factor problems. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting model based on the hidden Markov model by enhancing Sullivan and Woodall's work to allow handling of two-factor forecasting problems. Moreover, in order to make the nature of conjecture and randomness of forecasting more realistic, the Monte Carlo method is adopted to estimate the outcome. To test the effectiveness of the resulting stochastic model, we conduct two experiments and compare the results with those from other models. The first experiment consists of forecasting the daily average temperature and cloud density in Taipei, Taiwan, and the second experiment is based on the Taiwan Weighted Stock Index by forecasting the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar against the U.S. dollar. In addition to improving forecasting accuracy, the proposed model adheres to the central limit theorem, and thus, the result statistically approximates to the real mean of the target value being forecast.

  19. Probabilistic Reachability for Parametric Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahn, Ernst Moritz; Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun

    2011-01-01

    Given a parametric Markov model, we consider the problem of computing the rational function expressing the probability of reaching a given set of states. To attack this principal problem, Daws has suggested to first convert the Markov chain into a finite automaton, from which a regular expression...

  20. HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erlwein, Christina; Benth, Fred Espen; Mamon, Rogemar

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a hidden Markov chain in discrete time. They are able to switch between different economic regimes representing the interaction of various factors. Through the application of reference probability technique, adaptive filters are derived, which in turn, provide optimal estimates for the state of the Markov chain and related quantities of the observation process. The EM algorithm is applied to find optimal estimates of the model parameters in terms of the recursive filters. We implement this self-calibrating model on a deseasonalised series of daily spot electricity prices from the Nordic exchange Nord Pool. On the basis of one-step ahead forecasts, we found that the model is able to capture the empirical characteristics of Nord Pool spot prices. (author)

  1. Video event classification and image segmentation based on noncausal multidimensional hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiang; Schonfeld, Dan; Khokhar, Ashfaq A

    2009-06-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel solution to an arbitrary noncausal, multidimensional hidden Markov model (HMM) for image and video classification. First, we show that the noncausal model can be solved by splitting it into multiple causal HMMs and simultaneously solving each causal HMM using a fully synchronous distributed computing framework, therefore referred to as distributed HMMs. Next we present an approximate solution to the multiple causal HMMs that is based on an alternating updating scheme and assumes a realistic sequential computing framework. The parameters of the distributed causal HMMs are estimated by extending the classical 1-D training and classification algorithms to multiple dimensions. The proposed extension to arbitrary causal, multidimensional HMMs allows state transitions that are dependent on all causal neighbors. We, thus, extend three fundamental algorithms to multidimensional causal systems, i.e., 1) expectation-maximization (EM), 2) general forward-backward (GFB), and 3) Viterbi algorithms. In the simulations, we choose to limit ourselves to a noncausal 2-D model whose noncausality is along a single dimension, in order to significantly reduce the computational complexity. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance, higher accuracy rate, and applicability of the proposed noncausal HMM framework to image and video classification.

  2. Markov chains models, algorithms and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K; Siu, Tak-Kuen

    2013-01-01

    This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data.This book consists of eight chapters.  Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods

  3. Fitting Hidden Markov Models to Psychological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Visser

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Markov models have been used extensively in psychology of learning. Applications of hidden Markov models are rare however. This is partially due to the fact that comprehensive statistics for model selection and model assessment are lacking in the psychological literature. We present model selection and model assessment statistics that are particularly useful in applying hidden Markov models in psychology. These statistics are presented and evaluated by simulation studies for a toy example. We compare AIC, BIC and related criteria and introduce a prediction error measure for assessing goodness-of-fit. In a simulation study, two methods of fitting equality constraints are compared. In two illustrative examples with experimental data we apply selection criteria, fit models with constraints and assess goodness-of-fit. First, data from a concept identification task is analyzed. Hidden Markov models provide a flexible approach to analyzing such data when compared to other modeling methods. Second, a novel application of hidden Markov models in implicit learning is presented. Hidden Markov models are used in this context to quantify knowledge that subjects express in an implicit learning task. This method of analyzing implicit learning data provides a comprehensive approach for addressing important theoretical issues in the field.

  4. Learning effective connectivity from fMRI using autoregressive hidden Markov model with missing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Shilpa; Chaudhury, Santanu; Lall, Brejesh; Roy, Prasun Kumar

    2017-02-15

    Effective connectivity (EC) analysis of neuronal groups using fMRI delivers insights about functional-integration. However, fMRI signal has low-temporal resolution due to down-sampling and indirectly measures underlying neuronal activity. The aim is to address above issues for more reliable EC estimates. This paper proposes use of autoregressive hidden Markov model with missing data (AR-HMM-md) in dynamically multi-linked (DML) framework for learning EC using multiple fMRI time series. In our recent work (Dang et al., 2016), we have shown how AR-HMM-md for modelling single fMRI time series outperforms the existing methods. AR-HMM-md models unobserved neuronal activity and lost data over time as variables and estimates their values by joint optimization given fMRI observation sequence. The effectiveness in learning EC is shown using simulated experiments. Also the effects of sampling and noise are studied on EC. Moreover, classification-experiments are performed for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder subjects and age-matched controls for performance evaluation of real data. Using Bayesian model selection, we see that the proposed model converged to higher log-likelihood and demonstrated that group-classification can be performed with higher cross-validation accuracy of above 94% using distinctive network EC which characterizes patients vs. The full data EC obtained from DML-AR-HMM-md is more consistent with previous literature than the classical multivariate Granger causality method. The proposed architecture leads to reliable estimates of EC than the existing latent models. This framework overcomes the disadvantage of low-temporal resolution and improves cross-validation accuracy significantly due to presence of missing data variables and autoregressive process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The Use of Hidden Markov Models for Anomaly Detection in Nuclear Core Condition Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Bruce; West, Graeme M.; Galloway, Stuart; McArthur, Stephen D. J.; McDonald, James R.; Towle, Dave

    2009-04-01

    Unplanned outages can be especially costly for generation companies operating nuclear facilities. Early detection of deviations from expected performance through condition monitoring can allow a more proactive and managed approach to dealing with ageing plant. This paper proposes an anomaly detection framework incorporating the use of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to support the analysis of nuclear reactor core condition monitoring data. Fuel Grab Load Trace (FGLT) data gathered within the UK during routine refueling operations has been seen to provide information relating to the condition of the graphite bricks that comprise the core. Although manual analysis of this data is time consuming and requires considerable expertise, this paper demonstrates how techniques such as the HMM can provide analysis support by providing a benchmark model of expected behavior against which future refueling events may be compared. The presence of anomalous behavior in candidate traces is inferred through the underlying statistical foundation of the HMM which gives an observation likelihood averaged along the length of the input sequence. Using this likelihood measure, the engineer can be alerted to anomalous behaviour, indicating data which might require further detailed examination. It is proposed that this data analysis technique is used in conjunction with other intelligent analysis techniques currently employed to analyse FGLT to provide a greater confidence measure in detecting anomalous behaviour from FGLT data.

  6. Detecting critical state before phase transition of complex biological systems by hidden Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pei; Liu, Rui; Li, Yongjun; Chen, Luonan

    2016-07-15

    Identifying the critical state or pre-transition state just before the occurrence of a phase transition is a challenging task, because the state of the system may show little apparent change before this critical transition during the gradual parameter variations. Such dynamics of phase transition is generally composed of three stages, i.e. before-transition state, pre-transition state and after-transition state, which can be considered as three different Markov processes. By exploring the rich dynamical information provided by high-throughput data, we present a novel computational method, i.e. hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach, to detect the switching point of the two Markov processes from the before-transition state (a stationary Markov process) to the pre-transition state (a time-varying Markov process), thereby identifying the pre-transition state or early-warning signals of the phase transition. To validate the effectiveness, we apply this method to detect the signals of the imminent phase transitions of complex systems based on the simulated datasets, and further identify the pre-transition states as well as their critical modules for three real datasets, i.e. the acute lung injury triggered by phosgene inhalation, MCF-7 human breast cancer caused by heregulin and HCV-induced dysplasia and hepatocellular carcinoma. Both functional and pathway enrichment analyses validate the computational results. The source code and some supporting files are available at https://github.com/rabbitpei/HMM_based-method lnchen@sibs.ac.cn or liyj@scut.edu.cn Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Ruth; Langrock, Roland

    2016-06-01

    We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process involves the assumption that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using, for example, a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example, on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Cluster-based adaptive power control protocol using Hidden Markov Model for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinutha, C. B.; Nalini, N.; Nagaraja, M.

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents strategies for an efficient and dynamic transmission power control technique, in order to reduce packet drop and hence energy consumption of power-hungry sensor nodes operated in highly non-linear channel conditions of Wireless Sensor Networks. Besides, we also focus to prolong network lifetime and scalability by designing cluster-based network structure. Specifically we consider weight-based clustering approach wherein, minimum significant node is chosen as Cluster Head (CH) which is computed stemmed from the factors distance, remaining residual battery power and received signal strength (RSS). Further, transmission power control schemes to fit into dynamic channel conditions are meticulously implemented using Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where probability transition matrix is formulated based on the observed RSS measurements. Typically, CH estimates initial transmission power of its cluster members (CMs) from RSS using HMM and broadcast this value to its CMs for initialising their power value. Further, if CH finds that there are variations in link quality and RSS of the CMs, it again re-computes and optimises the transmission power level of the nodes using HMM to avoid packet loss due noise interference. We have demonstrated our simulation results to prove that our technique efficiently controls the power levels of sensing nodes to save significant quantity of energy for different sized network.

  9. Enhancing Speech Recognition Using Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lokesh Selvaraj

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Enhancing speech recognition is the primary intention of this work. In this paper a novel speech recognition method based on vector quantization and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO is suggested. The suggested methodology contains four stages, namely, (i denoising, (ii feature mining (iii, vector quantization, and (iv IPSO based hidden Markov model (HMM technique (IP-HMM. At first, the speech signals are denoised using median filter. Next, characteristics such as peak, pitch spectrum, Mel frequency Cepstral coefficients (MFCC, mean, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum of the signal are extorted from the denoised signal. Following that, to accomplish the training process, the extracted characteristics are given to genetic algorithm based codebook generation in vector quantization. The initial populations are created by selecting random code vectors from the training set for the codebooks for the genetic algorithm process and IP-HMM helps in doing the recognition. At this point the creativeness will be done in terms of one of the genetic operation crossovers. The proposed speech recognition technique offers 97.14% accuracy.

  10. Development of a Fault Monitoring Technique for Wind Turbines Using a Hidden Markov Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sung-Hwan; Kim, SangRyul; Seo, Yun-Ho

    2018-06-02

    Regular inspection for the maintenance of the wind turbines is difficult because of their remote locations. For this reason, condition monitoring systems (CMSs) are typically installed to monitor their health condition. The purpose of this study is to propose a fault detection algorithm for the mechanical parts of the wind turbine. To this end, long-term vibration data were collected over two years by a CMS installed on a 3 MW wind turbine. The vibration distribution at a specific rotating speed of main shaft is approximated by the Weibull distribution and its cumulative distribution function is utilized for determining the threshold levels that indicate impending failure of mechanical parts. A Hidden Markov model (HMM) is employed to propose the statistical fault detection algorithm in the time domain and the method whereby the input sequence for HMM is extracted is also introduced by considering the threshold levels and the correlation between the signals. Finally, it was demonstrated that the proposed HMM algorithm achieved a greater than 95% detection success rate by using the long-term signals.

  11. A Survey on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Based Intention Prediction Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Mrs. Manisha Bharati; Dr. Santosh Lomte

    2016-01-01

    The extensive use of virtualization in implementing cloud infrastructure brings unrivaled security concerns for cloud tenants or customers and introduces an additional layer that itself must be completely configured and secured. Intruders can exploit the large amount of cloud resources for their attacks. This paper discusses two approaches In the first three features namely ongoing attacks, autonomic prevention actions, and risk measure are Integrated to our Autonomic Cloud Intrus...

  12. A Hybrid of Deep Network and Hidden Markov Model for MCI Identification with Resting-State fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suk, Heung-Il; Lee, Seong-Whan; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel method for modelling functional dynamics in resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI) for Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) identification. Specifically, we devise a hybrid architecture by combining Deep Auto-Encoder (DAE) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The roles of DAE and HMM are, respectively, to discover hierarchical non-linear relations among features, by which we transform the original features into a lower dimension space, and to model dynamic characteristics inherent in rs-fMRI, i.e. , internal state changes. By building a generative model with HMMs for each class individually, we estimate the data likelihood of a test subject as MCI or normal healthy control, based on which we identify the clinical label. In our experiments, we achieved the maximal accuracy of 81.08% with the proposed method, outperforming state-of-the-art methods in the literature.

  13. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  14. Markov and mixed models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard

    This thesis deals with mathematical and statistical models with focus on applications in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling. These models are today an important aspect of the drug development in the pharmaceutical industry and continued research in statistical methodology within...... or uncontrollable factors in an individual. Modelling using SDEs also provides new tools for estimation of unknown inputs to a system and is illustrated with an application to estimation of insulin secretion rates in diabetic patients. Models for the eect of a drug is a broader area since drugs may affect...... for non-parametric estimation of Markov processes are proposed to give a detailed description of the sleep process during the night. Statistically the Markov models considered for sleep states are closely related to the PK models based on SDEs as both models share the Markov property. When the models...

  15. Modeling Strategic Use of Human Computer Interfaces with Novel Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Jane Mariano

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Immersive software tools are virtual environments designed to give their users an augmented view of real-world data and ways of manipulating that data. As virtual environments, every action users make while interacting with these tools can be carefully logged, as can the state of the software and the information it presents to the user, giving these actions context. This data provides a high-resolution lens through which dynamic cognitive and behavioral processes can be viewed. In this report, we describe new methods for the analysis and interpretation of such data, utilizing a novel implementation of the Beta Process Hidden Markov Model (BP-HMM for analysis of software activity logs. We further report the results of a preliminary study designed to establish the validity of our modeling approach. A group of 20 participants were asked to play a simple computer game, instrumented to log every interaction with the interface. Participants had no previous experience with the game’s functionality or rules, so the activity logs collected during their naïve interactions capture patterns of exploratory behavior and skill acquisition as they attempted to learn the rules of the game. Pre- and post-task questionnaires probed for self-reported styles of problem solving, as well as task engagement, difficulty, and workload. We jointly modeled the activity log sequences collected from all participants using the BP-HMM approach, identifying a global library of activity patterns representative of the collective behavior of all the participants. Analyses show systematic relationships between both pre- and post-task questionnaires, self-reported approaches to analytic problem solving, and metrics extracted from the BP-HMM decomposition. Overall, we find that this novel approach to decomposing unstructured behavioral data within software environments provides a sensible means for understanding how users learn to integrate software functionality for strategic

  16. Mining adverse drug reactions from online healthcare forums using hidden Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampathkumar, Hariprasad; Chen, Xue-wen; Luo, Bo

    2014-10-23

    Adverse Drug Reactions are one of the leading causes of injury or death among patients undergoing medical treatments. Not all Adverse Drug Reactions are identified before a drug is made available in the market. Current post-marketing drug surveillance methods, which are based purely on voluntary spontaneous reports, are unable to provide the early indications necessary to prevent the occurrence of such injuries or fatalities. The objective of this research is to extract reports of adverse drug side-effects from messages in online healthcare forums and use them as early indicators to assist in post-marketing drug surveillance. We treat the task of extracting adverse side-effects of drugs from healthcare forum messages as a sequence labeling problem and present a Hidden Markov Model(HMM) based Text Mining system that can be used to classify a message as containing drug side-effect information and then extract the adverse side-effect mentions from it. A manually annotated dataset from http://www.medications.com is used in the training and validation of the HMM based Text Mining system. A 10-fold cross-validation on the manually annotated dataset yielded on average an F-Score of 0.76 from the HMM Classifier, in comparison to 0.575 from the Baseline classifier. Without the Plain Text Filter component as a part of the Text Processing module, the F-Score of the HMM Classifier was reduced to 0.378 on average, while absence of the HTML Filter component was found to have no impact. Reducing the Drug names dictionary size by half, on average reduced the F-Score of the HMM Classifier to 0.359, while a similar reduction to the side-effects dictionary yielded an F-Score of 0.651 on average. Adverse side-effects mined from http://www.medications.com and http://www.steadyhealth.com were found to match the Adverse Drug Reactions on the Drug Package Labels of several drugs. In addition, some novel adverse side-effects, which can be potential Adverse Drug Reactions, were also

  17. Score-based prediction of genomic islands in prokaryotic genomes using hidden Markov models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surovcik Katharina

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Horizontal gene transfer (HGT is considered a strong evolutionary force shaping the content of microbial genomes in a substantial manner. It is the difference in speed enabling the rapid adaptation to changing environmental demands that distinguishes HGT from gene genesis, duplications or mutations. For a precise characterization, algorithms are needed that identify transfer events with high reliability. Frequently, the transferred pieces of DNA have a considerable length, comprise several genes and are called genomic islands (GIs or more specifically pathogenicity or symbiotic islands. Results We have implemented the program SIGI-HMM that predicts GIs and the putative donor of each individual alien gene. It is based on the analysis of codon usage (CU of each individual gene of a genome under study. CU of each gene is compared against a carefully selected set of CU tables representing microbial donors or highly expressed genes. Multiple tests are used to identify putatively alien genes, to predict putative donors and to mask putatively highly expressed genes. Thus, we determine the states and emission probabilities of an inhomogeneous hidden Markov model working on gene level. For the transition probabilities, we draw upon classical test theory with the intention of integrating a sensitivity controller in a consistent manner. SIGI-HMM was written in JAVA and is publicly available. It accepts as input any file created according to the EMBL-format. It generates output in the common GFF format readable for genome browsers. Benchmark tests showed that the output of SIGI-HMM is in agreement with known findings. Its predictions were both consistent with annotated GIs and with predictions generated by different methods. Conclusion SIGI-HMM is a sensitive tool for the identification of GIs in microbial genomes. It allows to interactively analyze genomes in detail and to generate or to test hypotheses about the origin of acquired

  18. Clustering Multivariate Time Series Using Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Ghassempour

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe an algorithm for clustering multivariate time series with variables taking both categorical and continuous values. Time series of this type are frequent in health care, where they represent the health trajectories of individuals. The problem is challenging because categorical variables make it difficult to define a meaningful distance between trajectories. We propose an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs, where we first map each trajectory into an HMM, then define a suitable distance between HMMs and finally proceed to cluster the HMMs with a method based on a distance matrix. We test our approach on a simulated, but realistic, data set of 1,255 trajectories of individuals of age 45 and over, on a synthetic validation set with known clustering structure, and on a smaller set of 268 trajectories extracted from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Survey. The proposed method can be implemented quite simply using standard packages in R and Matlab and may be a good candidate for solving the difficult problem of clustering multivariate time series with categorical variables using tools that do not require advanced statistic knowledge, and therefore are accessible to a wide range of researchers.

  19. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Emil Banning; Møller, Jan K.; Morales, Juan Miguel

    2017-01-01

    . Specifically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is defined by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip, and is justified due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is fitted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  20. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Morales González, Juan Miguel

    . Specically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is dened by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip and is justied due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is tted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  1. Hidden Markov Models for Human Genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Yves

    1997-01-01

    We analyse the sequential structure of human genomic DNA by hidden Markov models. We apply models of widely different design: conventional left-right constructs and models with a built-in periodic architecture. The models are trained on segments of DNA sequences extracted such that they cover com...

  2. Model Checking Markov Chains: Techniques and Tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zapreev, I.S.

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation deals with four important aspects of model checking Markov chains: the development of efficient model-checking tools, the improvement of model-checking algorithms, the efficiency of the state-space reduction techniques, and the development of simulation-based model-checking

  3. Model Checking Structured Infinite Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid

    2008-01-01

    In the past probabilistic model checking hast mostly been restricted to finite state models. This thesis explores the possibilities of model checking with continuous stochastic logic (CSL) on infinite-state Markov chains. We present an in-depth treatment of model checking algorithms for two special

  4. Consistent Estimation of Partition Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús E. García

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Partition Markov Model characterizes the process by a partition L of the state space, where the elements in each part of L share the same transition probability to an arbitrary element in the alphabet. This model aims to answer the following questions: what is the minimal number of parameters needed to specify a Markov chain and how to estimate these parameters. In order to answer these questions, we build a consistent strategy for model selection which consist of: giving a size n realization of the process, finding a model within the Partition Markov class, with a minimal number of parts to represent the process law. From the strategy, we derive a measure that establishes a metric in the state space. In addition, we show that if the law of the process is Markovian, then, eventually, when n goes to infinity, L will be retrieved. We show an application to model internet navigation patterns.

  5. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  6. Comparison of HMM experts with MLP experts in the Full Combination Multi-Band Approach to Robust ASR

    OpenAIRE

    Hagen, Astrid; Morris, Andrew

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we apply the Full Combination (FC) multi-band approach, which has originally been introduced in the framework of posterior-based HMM/ANN (Hidden Markov Model/Artificial Neural Network) hybrid systems, to systems in which the ANN (or Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)) is itself replaced by a Multi Gaussian HMM (MGM). Both systems represent the most widely used statistical models for robust ASR (automatic speech recognition). It is shown how the FC formula for the likelihood--based MGMs...

  7. HMM based automated wheelchair navigation using EOG traces in EEG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Fayeem; Arof, Hamzah; Mokhtar, Norrima; Mubin, Marizan

    2014-10-01

    This paper presents a wheelchair navigation system based on a hidden Markov model (HMM), which we developed to assist those with restricted mobility. The semi-autonomous system is equipped with obstacle/collision avoidance sensors and it takes the electrooculography (EOG) signal traces from the user as commands to maneuver the wheelchair. The EOG traces originate from eyeball and eyelid movements and they are embedded in EEG signals collected from the scalp of the user at three different locations. Features extracted from the EOG traces are used to determine whether the eyes are open or closed, and whether the eyes are gazing to the right, center, or left. These features are utilized as inputs to a few support vector machine (SVM) classifiers, whose outputs are regarded as observations to an HMM. The HMM determines the state of the system and generates commands for navigating the wheelchair accordingly. The use of simple features and the implementation of a sliding window that captures important signatures in the EOG traces result in a fast execution time and high classification rates. The wheelchair is equipped with a proximity sensor and it can move forward and backward in three directions. The asynchronous system achieved an average classification rate of 98% when tested with online data while its average execution time was less than 1 s. It was also tested in a navigation experiment where all of the participants managed to complete the tasks successfully without collisions.

  8. Comparison of HMM and DTW methods in automatic recognition of pathological phoneme pronunciation

    OpenAIRE

    Wielgat, Robert; Zielinski, Tomasz P.; Swietojanski, Pawel; Zoladz, Piotr; Król, Daniel; Wozniak, Tomasz; Grabias, Stanislaw

    2007-01-01

    In the paper recently proposed Human Factor Cepstral Coefficients (HFCC) are used to automatic recognition of pathological phoneme pronunciation in speech of impaired children and efficiency of this approach is compared to application of the standard Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) as a feature vector. Both dynamic time warping (DTW), working on whole words or embedded phoneme patterns, and hidden Markov models (HMM) are used as classifiers in the presented research. Obtained resul...

  9. Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Crack Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard

    1991-01-01

    propagation process can be described by a discrete space Markov theory. The model is applicable to deterministic as well as to random loading. Once the model parameters for a given material have been determined, the results can be used for any structure as soon as the geometrical function is known....

  10. Model Checking Infinite-State Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Cloth, L.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper algorithms for model checking CSL (continuous stochastic logic) against infinite-state continuous-time Markov chains of so-called quasi birth-death type are developed. In doing so we extend the applicability of CSL model checking beyond the recently proposed case for finite-state

  11. Efficient Modelling and Generation of Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koutny, M.; Timmer, Mark; Ulidowski, I.; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    This paper introduces a framework for the efficient modelling and generation of Markov automata. It consists of (1) the data-rich process-algebraic language MAPA, allowing concise modelling of systems with nondeterminism, probability and Markovian timing; (2) a restricted form of the language, the

  12. Bayesian Mixed Hidden Markov Models: A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Categorical Outcomes with Differential Misclassification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yue; Berhane, Kiros

    2014-01-01

    Questionnaire-based health status outcomes are often prone to misclassification. When studying the effect of risk factors on such outcomes, ignoring any potential misclassification may lead to biased effect estimates. Analytical challenges posed by these misclassified outcomes are further complicated when simultaneously exploring factors for both the misclassification and health processes in a multi-level setting. To address these challenges, we propose a fully Bayesian Mixed Hidden Markov Model (BMHMM) for handling differential misclassification in categorical outcomes in a multi-level setting. The BMHMM generalizes the traditional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) by introducing random effects into three sets of HMM parameters for joint estimation of the prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities. This formulation not only allows joint estimation of all three sets of parameters, but also accounts for cluster level heterogeneity based on a multi-level model structure. Using this novel approach, both the true health status prevalence and the transition probabilities between the health states during follow-up are modeled as functions of covariates. The observed, possibly misclassified, health states are related to the true, but unobserved, health states and covariates. Results from simulation studies are presented to validate the estimation procedure, to show the computational efficiency due to the Bayesian approach and also to illustrate the gains from the proposed method compared to existing methods that ignore outcome misclassification and cluster level heterogeneity. We apply the proposed method to examine the risk factors for both asthma transition and misclassification in the Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS). PMID:24254432

  13. Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its ... the earth from the clouds. The usual ... Rainfall modelling and ... Markov Models have become popular tools ... environment sciences, University of Jos, plateau state,.

  14. Hidden Markov models for sequence analysis: extension and analysis of the basic method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughey, Richard; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1996-01-01

    -maximization training procedure is relatively straight-forward. In this paper,we review the mathematical extensions and heuristics that move the method from the theoreticalto the practical. Then, we experimentally analyze the effectiveness of model regularization,dynamic model modification, and optimization strategies......Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a highly effective means of modeling a family of unalignedsequences or a common motif within a set of unaligned sequences. The trained HMM can then beused for discrimination or multiple alignment. The basic mathematical description of an HMMand its expectation....... Finally it is demonstrated on the SH2domain how a domain can be found from unaligned sequences using a special model type. Theexperimental work was completed with the aid of the Sequence Alignment and Modeling softwaresuite....

  15. Performance Modeling of Communication Networks with Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Mo, Jeonghoon

    2010-01-01

    This book is an introduction to Markov chain modeling with applications to communication networks. It begins with a general introduction to performance modeling in Chapter 1 where we introduce different performance models. We then introduce basic ideas of Markov chain modeling: Markov property, discrete time Markov chain (DTMe and continuous time Markov chain (CTMe. We also discuss how to find the steady state distributions from these Markov chains and how they can be used to compute the system performance metric. The solution methodologies include a balance equation technique, limiting probab

  16. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  17. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  18. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different

  19. Efficient Blind System Identification of Non-Gaussian Auto-Regressive Models with HMM Modeling of the Excitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Chunjian; Andersen, Søren Vang

    2007-01-01

    We propose two blind system identification methods that exploit the underlying dynamics of non-Gaussian signals. The two signal models to be identified are: an Auto-Regressive (AR) model driven by a discrete-state Hidden Markov process, and the same model whose output is perturbed by white Gaussi...... outputs. The signal models are general and suitable to numerous important signals, such as speech signals and base-band communication signals. Applications to speech analysis and blind channel equalization are given to exemplify the efficiency of the new methods....

  20. Dual Sticky Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model and Its Application to Natural Language Description of Motions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Weiming; Tian, Guodong; Kang, Yongxin; Yuan, Chunfeng; Maybank, Stephen

    2017-09-25

    In this paper, a new nonparametric Bayesian model called the dual sticky hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) is proposed for mining activities from a collection of time series data such as trajectories. All the time series data are clustered. Each cluster of time series data, corresponding to a motion pattern, is modeled by an HMM. Our model postulates a set of HMMs that share a common set of states (topics in an analogy with topic models for document processing), but have unique transition distributions. For the application to motion trajectory modeling, topics correspond to motion activities. The learnt topics are clustered into atomic activities which are assigned predicates. We propose a Bayesian inference method to decompose a given trajectory into a sequence of atomic activities. On combining the learnt sources and sinks, semantic motion regions, and the learnt sequence of atomic activities, the action represented by the trajectory can be described in natural language in as automatic a way as possible. The effectiveness of our dual sticky HDP-HMM is validated on several trajectory datasets. The effectiveness of the natural language descriptions for motions is demonstrated on the vehicle trajectories extracted from a traffic scene.

  1. Capturing the state transitions of seizure-like events using Hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guirgis, Mirna; Serletis, Demitre; Carlen, Peter L; Bardakjian, Berj L

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the number of states present in the progression of a seizure-like event (SLE). Of particular interest is to determine if there are more than two clearly defined states, as this would suggest that there is a distinct state preceding an SLE. Whole-intact hippocampus from C57/BL mice was used to model epileptiform activity induced by the perfusion of a low Mg(2+)/high K(+) solution while extracellular field potentials were recorded from CA3 pyramidal neurons. Hidden Markov models (HMM) were used to model the state transitions of the recorded SLEs by incorporating various features of the Hilbert transform into the training algorithm; specifically, 2- and 3-state HMMs were explored. Although the 2-state model was able to distinguish between SLE and nonSLE behavior, it provided no improvements compared to visual inspection alone. However, the 3-state model was able to capture two distinct nonSLE states that visual inspection failed to discriminate. Moreover, by developing an HMM based system a priori knowledge of the state transitions was not required making this an ideal platform for seizure prediction algorithms.

  2. Naive scoring of human sleep based on a hidden Markov model of the electroencephalogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghouby, Farid; Modur, Pradeep; Sunderam, Sridhar

    2014-01-01

    Clinical sleep scoring involves tedious visual review of overnight polysomnograms by a human expert. Many attempts have been made to automate the process by training computer algorithms such as support vector machines and hidden Markov models (HMMs) to replicate human scoring. Such supervised classifiers are typically trained on scored data and then validated on scored out-of-sample data. Here we describe a methodology based on HMMs for scoring an overnight sleep recording without the benefit of a trained initial model. The number of states in the data is not known a priori and is optimized using a Bayes information criterion. When tested on a 22-subject database, this unsupervised classifier agreed well with human scores (mean of Cohen's kappa > 0.7). The HMM also outperformed other unsupervised classifiers (Gaussian mixture models, k-means, and linkage trees), that are capable of naive classification but do not model dynamics, by a significant margin (p < 0.05).

  3. Hidden Markov model approach for identifying the modular framework of the protein backbone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camproux, A C; Tuffery, P; Chevrolat, J P; Boisvieux, J F; Hazout, S

    1999-12-01

    The hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to identify recurrent short 3D structural building blocks (SBBs) describing protein backbones, independently of any a priori knowledge. Polypeptide chains are decomposed into a series of short segments defined by their inter-alpha-carbon distances. Basically, the model takes into account the sequentiality of the observed segments and assumes that each one corresponds to one of several possible SBBs. Fitting the model to a database of non-redundant proteins allowed us to decode proteins in terms of 12 distinct SBBs with different roles in protein structure. Some SBBs correspond to classical regular secondary structures. Others correspond to a significant subdivision of their bounding regions previously considered to be a single pattern. The major contribution of the HMM is that this model implicitly takes into account the sequential connections between SBBs and thus describes the most probable pathways by which the blocks are connected to form the framework of the protein structures. Validation of the SBBs code was performed by extracting SBB series repeated in recoding proteins and examining their structural similarities. Preliminary results on the sequence specificity of SBBs suggest promising perspectives for the prediction of SBBs or series of SBBs from the protein sequences.

  4. Model Checking Markov Reward Models with Impulse Rewards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cloth, Lucia; Katoen, Joost-Pieter; Khattri, Maneesh; Pulungan, Reza; Bondavalli, Andrea; Haverkort, Boudewijn; Tang, Dong

    This paper considers model checking of Markov reward models (MRMs), continuous-time Markov chains with state rewards as well as impulse rewards. The reward extension of the logic CSL (Continuous Stochastic Logic) is interpreted over such MRMs, and two numerical algorithms are provided to check the

  5. Modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulatilake, P.H.S.W.

    1987-07-01

    State-of-the-art on modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using first-order Markov chains is reviewed. Shortcomings of the presently available procedures are identified. A procedure which eliminates all the identified shortcomings is presented. Required statistical tests to perform this modelling are given in detail. An example (the Oficina formation in eastern Venezuela) is given to illustrate the presented procedure. 12 refs., 3 tabs. 1 fig.

  6. MARKOV CHAIN PORTFOLIO LIQUIDITY OPTIMIZATION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eder Oliveira Abensur

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The international financial crisis of September 2008 and May 2010 showed the importance of liquidity as an attribute to be considered in portfolio decisions. This study proposes an optimization model based on available public data, using Markov chain and Genetic Algorithms concepts as it considers the classic duality of risk versus return and incorporating liquidity costs. The work intends to propose a multi-criterion non-linear optimization model using liquidity based on a Markov chain. The non-linear model was tested using Genetic Algorithms with twenty five Brazilian stocks from 2007 to 2009. The results suggest that this is an innovative development methodology and useful for developing an efficient and realistic financial portfolio, as it considers many attributes such as risk, return and liquidity.

  7. Nuclear security assessment with Markov model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear security risk assessment with the Markov model based on random event is performed to explore evaluation methodology for physical protection in nuclear facilities. Because the security incidences are initiated by malicious and intentional acts, expert judgment and Bayes updating are used to estimate scenario and initiation likelihood, and it is assumed that the Markov model derived from stochastic process can be applied to incidence sequence. Both an unauthorized intrusion as Design Based Threat (DBT) and a stand-off attack as beyond-DBT are assumed to hypothetical facilities, and performance of physical protection and mitigation and minimization of consequence are investigated to develop the assessment methodology in a semi-quantitative manner. It is shown that cooperation between facility operator and security authority is important to respond to the beyond-DBT incidence. (author)

  8. Modeling nonhomogeneous Markov processes via time transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, R A; Inoue, L Y T; Fann, J R

    2008-09-01

    Longitudinal studies are a powerful tool for characterizing the course of chronic disease. These studies are usually carried out with subjects observed at periodic visits giving rise to panel data. Under this observation scheme the exact times of disease state transitions and sequence of disease states visited are unknown and Markov process models are often used to describe disease progression. Most applications of Markov process models rely on the assumption of time homogeneity, that is, that the transition rates are constant over time. This assumption is not satisfied when transition rates depend on time from the process origin. However, limited statistical tools are available for dealing with nonhomogeneity. We propose models in which the time scale of a nonhomogeneous Markov process is transformed to an operational time scale on which the process is homogeneous. We develop a method for jointly estimating the time transformation and the transition intensity matrix for the time transformed homogeneous process. We assess maximum likelihood estimation using the Fisher scoring algorithm via simulation studies and compare performance of our method to homogeneous and piecewise homogeneous models. We apply our methodology to a study of delirium progression in a cohort of stem cell transplantation recipients and show that our method identifies temporal trends in delirium incidence and recovery.

  9. A Novel Approach to Detect Network Attacks Using G-HMM-Based Temporal Relations between Internet Protocol Packets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Kyusuk

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces novel attack detection approaches on mobile and wireless device security and network which consider temporal relations between internet packets. In this paper we first present a field selection technique using a Genetic Algorithm and generate a Packet-based Mining Association Rule from an original Mining Association Rule for Support Vector Machine in mobile and wireless network environment. Through the preprocessing with PMAR, SVM inputs can account for time variation between packets in mobile and wireless network. Third, we present Gaussian observation Hidden Markov Model to exploit the hidden relationships between packets based on probabilistic estimation. In our G-HMM approach, we also apply G-HMM feature reduction for better initialization. We demonstrate the usefulness of our SVM and G-HMM approaches with GA on MIT Lincoln Lab datasets and a live dataset that we captured on a real mobile and wireless network. Moreover, experimental results are verified by -fold cross-validation test.

  10. Spatial Region Estimation for Autonomous CoT Clustering Using Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joon‐young Jung

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a hierarchical dual filtering (HDF algorithm to estimate the spatial region between a Cloud of Things (CoT gateway and an Internet of Things (IoT device. The accuracy of the spatial region estimation is important for autonomous CoT clustering. We conduct spatial region estimation using a hidden Markov model (HMM with a raw Bluetooth received signal strength indicator (RSSI. However, the accuracy of the region estimation using the validation data is only 53.8%. To increase the accuracy of the spatial region estimation, the HDF algorithm removes the high‐frequency signals hierarchically, and alters the parameters according to whether the IoT device moves. The accuracy of spatial region estimation using a raw RSSI, Kalman filter, and HDF are compared to evaluate the effectiveness of the HDF algorithm. The success rate and root mean square error (RMSE of all regions are 0.538, 0.622, and 0.75, and 0.997, 0.812, and 0.5 when raw RSSI, a Kalman filter, and HDF are used, respectively. The HDF algorithm attains the best results in terms of the success rate and RMSE of spatial region estimation using HMM.

  11. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, T D [Center for the Ecological Study of Perception and Action, Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut, 406 Babbidge Road, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States)

    2008-07-18

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  12. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T D

    2008-01-01

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  13. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  14. A Novel Entropy-Based Decoding Algorithm for a Generalized High-Order Discrete Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Chin-Tiong Chan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The optimal state sequence of a generalized High-Order Hidden Markov Model (HHMM is tracked from a given observational sequence using the classical Viterbi algorithm. This classical algorithm is based on maximum likelihood criterion. We introduce an entropy-based Viterbi algorithm for tracking the optimal state sequence of a HHMM. The entropy of a state sequence is a useful quantity, providing a measure of the uncertainty of a HHMM. There will be no uncertainty if there is only one possible optimal state sequence for HHMM. This entropy-based decoding algorithm can be formulated in an extended or a reduction approach. We extend the entropy-based algorithm for computing the optimal state sequence that was developed from a first-order to a generalized HHMM with a single observational sequence. This extended algorithm performs the computation exponentially with respect to the order of HMM. The computational complexity of this extended algorithm is due to the growth of the model parameters. We introduce an efficient entropy-based decoding algorithm that used reduction approach, namely, entropy-based order-transformation forward algorithm (EOTFA to compute the optimal state sequence of any generalized HHMM. This EOTFA algorithm involves a transformation of a generalized high-order HMM into an equivalent first-order HMM and an entropy-based decoding algorithm is developed based on the equivalent first-order HMM. This algorithm performs the computation based on the observational sequence and it requires OTN~2 calculations, where N~ is the number of states in an equivalent first-order model and T is the length of observational sequence.

  15. Stencil method: a Markov model for transport in porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgoshaie, A. H.; Tchelepi, H.; Jenny, P.

    2016-12-01

    In porous media the transport of fluid is dominated by flow-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying transmissibility field. Since the transmissibility is highly uncertain, many realizations of a geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo framework. One possible way to avoid the high computational cost of physics-based Monte Carlo simulations is to model the velocity field as a Markov process and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In previous works multiple Markov models for discrete velocity processes have been proposed. These models can be divided into two general classes of Markov models in time and Markov models in space. Both of these choices have been shown to be effective to some extent. However some studies have suggested that the Markov property cannot be confirmed for a temporal Markov process; Therefore there is not a consensus about the validity and value of Markov models in time. Moreover, previous spacial Markov models have only been used for modeling transport on structured networks and can not be readily applied to model transport in unstructured networks. In this work we propose a novel approach for constructing a Markov model in time (stencil method) for a discrete velocity process. The results form the stencil method are compared to previously proposed spacial Markov models for structured networks. The stencil method is also applied to unstructured networks and can successfully describe the dispersion of particles in this setting. Our conclusion is that both temporal Markov models and spacial Markov models for discrete velocity processes can be valid for a range of model parameters. Moreover, we show that the stencil model can be more efficient in many practical settings and is suited to model dispersion both on structured and unstructured networks.

  16. Un calcul de Viterbi pour un Modèle de Markov Caché Contraint

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petit, Matthieu; Christiansen, Henning

    2009-01-01

    A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process with hidden states. This model has been widely used in speech recognition and biological sequence analysis. Viterbi algorithm has been proposed to compute the most probable value....... Several constraint techniques are used to reduce the search of the most probable value of hidden states of a constrained HMM. An implementation based on PRISM, a logic programming language for statistical modeling, is presented....

  17. Epitope discovery with phylogenetic hidden Markov models.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Lacerda, Miguel

    2010-05-01

    Existing methods for the prediction of immunologically active T-cell epitopes are based on the amino acid sequence or structure of pathogen proteins. Additional information regarding the locations of epitopes may be acquired by considering the evolution of viruses in hosts with different immune backgrounds. In particular, immune-dependent evolutionary patterns at sites within or near T-cell epitopes can be used to enhance epitope identification. We have developed a mutation-selection model of T-cell epitope evolution that allows the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype of the host to influence the evolutionary process. This is one of the first examples of the incorporation of environmental parameters into a phylogenetic model and has many other potential applications where the selection pressures exerted on an organism can be related directly to environmental factors. We combine this novel evolutionary model with a hidden Markov model to identify contiguous amino acid positions that appear to evolve under immune pressure in the presence of specific host immune alleles and that therefore represent potential epitopes. This phylogenetic hidden Markov model provides a rigorous probabilistic framework that can be combined with sequence or structural information to improve epitope prediction. As a demonstration, we apply the model to a data set of HIV-1 protein-coding sequences and host HLA genotypes.

  18. Pruning Boltzmann networks and hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten With; Stork, D.

    1996-01-01

    We present sensitivity-based pruning algorithms for general Boltzmann networks. Central to our methods is the efficient calculation of a second-order approximation to the true weight saliencies in a cross-entropy error. Building upon previous work which shows a formal correspondence between linear...... Boltzmann chains and hidden Markov models (HMMs), we argue that our method can be applied to HMMs as well. We illustrate pruning on Boltzmann zippers, which are equivalent to two HMMs with cross-connection links. We verify that our second-order approximation preserves the rank ordering of weight saliencies...

  19. Deteksi Fraud Menggunakan Metode Model Markov Tersembunyi Pada Proses Bisnis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrean Hutama Koosasi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Model Markov Tersembunyi merupakan sebuah metode statistik berdasarkan Model Markov sederhana yang memodelkan sistem serta membaginya dalam 2 (dua state, state tersembunyi dan state observasi. Dalam pengerjaan tugas akhir ini, penulis mengusulkan penggunaan metode Model Markov Tersembunyi untuk menemukan fraud didalam sebuah pelaksanaan proses bisnis. Dengan penggunaan metode Model Markov Tersembunyi ini, maka pengamatan terhadap elemen penyusun sebuah kasus/kejadian, yakni beberapa aktivitas, akan diperoleh sebuah nilai peluang, yang sekaligus memberikan prediksi terhadap kasus/kejadian tersebut, sebuah fraud atau tidak. Hasil ekpserimen ini menunjukkan bahwa metode yang diusulkan mampu memberikan prediksi akhir dengan evaluasi TPR sebesar 87,5% dan TNR sebesar 99,4%.

  20. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  1. Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2003-06-01

    We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

  2. A Hidden Markov Model Representing the Spatial and Temporal Correlation of Multiple Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fang, Jiakun; Su, Chi; Hu, Weihao

    2015-01-01

    To accommodate the increasing wind energy with stochastic nature becomes a major issue on power system reliability. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the spatiotemporal correlation of multiple wind farms. First, a hierarchical clustering method based on self-organizing maps is ado....... The proposed statistical modeling framework is compatible with the sequential power system reliability analysis. A case study on optimal sizing and location of fast-response regulation sources is presented.......To accommodate the increasing wind energy with stochastic nature becomes a major issue on power system reliability. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the spatiotemporal correlation of multiple wind farms. First, a hierarchical clustering method based on self-organizing maps...... is adopted to categorize the similar output patterns of several wind farms into joint states. Then the hidden Markov model (HMM) is then designed to describe the temporal correlations among these joint states. Unlike the conventional Markov chain model, the accumulated wind power is taken into consideration...

  3. Detection of bursts in extracellular spike trains using hidden semi-Markov point process models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokdar, Surya; Xi, Peiyi; Kelly, Ryan C; Kass, Robert E

    2010-08-01

    Neurons in vitro and in vivo have epochs of bursting or "up state" activity during which firing rates are dramatically elevated. Various methods of detecting bursts in extracellular spike trains have appeared in the literature, the most widely used apparently being Poisson Surprise (PS). A natural description of the phenomenon assumes (1) there are two hidden states, which we label "burst" and "non-burst," (2) the neuron evolves stochastically, switching at random between these two states, and (3) within each state the spike train follows a time-homogeneous point process. If in (2) the transitions from non-burst to burst and burst to non-burst states are memoryless, this becomes a hidden Markov model (HMM). For HMMs, the state transitions follow exponential distributions, and are highly irregular. Because observed bursting may in some cases be fairly regular-exhibiting inter-burst intervals with small variation-we relaxed this assumption. When more general probability distributions are used to describe the state transitions the two-state point process model becomes a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM). We developed an efficient Bayesian computational scheme to fit HSMMs to spike train data. Numerical simulations indicate the method can perform well, sometimes yielding very different results than those based on PS.

  4. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    OpenAIRE

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Velázquez, J. C.; Hallen, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure ...

  5. A Markov Process Inspired Cellular Automata Model of Road Traffic

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Fa; Li, Li; Hu, Jianming; Ji, Yan; Yao, Danya; Zhang, Yi; Jin, Xuexiang; Su, Yuelong; Wei, Zheng

    2008-01-01

    To provide a more accurate description of the driving behaviors in vehicle queues, a namely Markov-Gap cellular automata model is proposed in this paper. It views the variation of the gap between two consequent vehicles as a Markov process whose stationary distribution corresponds to the observed distribution of practical gaps. The multiformity of this Markov process provides the model enough flexibility to describe various driving behaviors. Two examples are given to show how to specialize i...

  6. Learning Markov models for stationary system behaviors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yingke; Mao, Hua; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    to a single long observation sequence, and in these situations existing automatic learning methods cannot be applied. In this paper, we adapt algorithms for learning variable order Markov chains from a single observation sequence of a target system, so that stationary system properties can be verified using......Establishing an accurate model for formal verification of an existing hardware or software system is often a manual process that is both time consuming and resource demanding. In order to ease the model construction phase, methods have recently been proposed for automatically learning accurate...... the learned model. Experiments demonstrate that system properties (formulated as stationary probabilities of LTL formulas) can be reliably identified using the learned model....

  7. A Markov Chain Model for Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelos Dassios

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering arrival of events, such as jumps, bankruptcies, crises and catastrophes in finance, insurance and economics with both internal contagion risk and external common risk. Key distributional properties, such as the moments and probability generating functions, for this process are derived. Some special cases with explicit results and numerical examples and the motivation for further actuarial applications are also discussed. The model can be considered a generalisation of the dynamic contagion process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011.

  8. Estimation and uncertainty of reversible Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

    2015-11-07

    Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model rely heavily on the reversibility property. The estimation of a reversible transition matrix from simulation data is, therefore, crucial to the successful application of the previously developed theory. In this work, we discuss methods for the maximum likelihood estimation of transition matrices from finite simulation data and present a new algorithm for the estimation if reversibility with respect to a given stationary vector is desired. We also develop new methods for the Bayesian posterior inference of reversible transition matrices with and without given stationary vector taking into account the need for a suitable prior distribution preserving the meta-stable features of the observed process during posterior inference. All algorithms here are implemented in the PyEMMA software--http://pyemma.org--as of version 2.0.

  9. Markov branching in the vertex splitting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefánsson, Sigurdur Örn

    2012-01-01

    We study a special case of the vertex splitting model which is a recent model of randomly growing trees. For any finite maximum vertex degree D, we find a one parameter model, with parameter α element of [0,1] which has a so-called Markov branching property. When D=∞ we find a two parameter model with an additional parameter γ element of [0,1] which also has this feature. In the case D = 3, the model bears resemblance to Ford's α-model of phylogenetic trees and when D=∞ it is similar to its generalization, the αγ-model. For α = 0, the model reduces to the well known model of preferential attachment. In the case α > 0, we prove convergence of the finite volume probability measures, generated by the growth rules, to a measure on infinite trees which is concentrated on the set of trees with a single spine. We show that the annealed Hausdorff dimension with respect to the infinite volume measure is 1/α. When γ = 0 the model reduces to a model of growing caterpillar graphs in which case we prove that the Hausdorff dimension is almost surely 1/α and that the spectral dimension is almost surely 2/(1 + α). We comment briefly on the distribution of vertex degrees and correlations between degrees of neighbouring vertices

  10. An introduction to hidden Markov models for biological sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1998-01-01

    A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding.......A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding....

  11. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Valor

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.

  12. Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models used to identify forest tree growth components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Guédon, Yann; Lavergne, Christian; Trottier, Catherine

    2010-09-01

    Tree growth is assumed to be mainly the result of three components: (i) an endogenous component assumed to be structured as a succession of roughly stationary phases separated by marked change points that are asynchronous among individuals, (ii) a time-varying environmental component assumed to take the form of synchronous fluctuations among individuals, and (iii) an individual component corresponding mainly to the local environment of each tree. To identify and characterize these three components, we propose to use semi-Markov switching linear mixed models, i.e., models that combine linear mixed models in a semi-Markovian manner. The underlying semi-Markov chain represents the succession of growth phases and their lengths (endogenous component) whereas the linear mixed models attached to each state of the underlying semi-Markov chain represent-in the corresponding growth phase-both the influence of time-varying climatic covariates (environmental component) as fixed effects, and interindividual heterogeneity (individual component) as random effects. In this article, we address the estimation of Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models in a general framework. We propose a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization like algorithm whose iterations decompose into three steps: (i) sampling of state sequences given random effects, (ii) prediction of random effects given state sequences, and (iii) maximization. The proposed statistical modeling approach is illustrated by the analysis of successive annual shoots along Corsican pine trunks influenced by climatic covariates. © 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Context Tree Estimation in Variable Length Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Dumont, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    We address the issue of context tree estimation in variable length hidden Markov models. We propose an estimator of the context tree of the hidden Markov process which needs no prior upper bound on the depth of the context tree. We prove that the estimator is strongly consistent. This uses information-theoretic mixture inequalities in the spirit of Finesso and Lorenzo(Consistent estimation of the order for Markov and hidden Markov chains(1990)) and E.Gassiat and S.Boucheron (Optimal error exp...

  14. Monte Carlo simulation of Markov unreliability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, E.E.; Boehm, F.

    1984-01-01

    A Monte Carlo method is formulated for the evaluation of the unrealibility of complex systems with known component failure and repair rates. The formulation is in terms of a Markov process allowing dependences between components to be modeled and computational efficiencies to be achieved in the Monte Carlo simulation. Two variance reduction techniques, forced transition and failure biasing, are employed to increase computational efficiency of the random walk procedure. For an example problem these result in improved computational efficiency by more than three orders of magnitudes over analog Monte Carlo. The method is generalized to treat problems with distributed failure and repair rate data, and a batching technique is introduced and shown to result in substantial increases in computational efficiency for an example problem. A method for separating the variance due to the data uncertainty from that due to the finite number of random walks is presented. (orig.)

  15. Markov state models of protein misfolding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirur, Anshul; De Sancho, David; Best, Robert B.

    2016-02-01

    Markov state models (MSMs) are an extremely useful tool for understanding the conformational dynamics of macromolecules and for analyzing MD simulations in a quantitative fashion. They have been extensively used for peptide and protein folding, for small molecule binding, and for the study of native ensemble dynamics. Here, we adapt the MSM methodology to gain insight into the dynamics of misfolded states. To overcome possible flaws in root-mean-square deviation (RMSD)-based metrics, we introduce a novel discretization approach, based on coarse-grained contact maps. In addition, we extend the MSM methodology to include "sink" states in order to account for the irreversibility (on simulation time scales) of processes like protein misfolding. We apply this method to analyze the mechanism of misfolding of tandem repeats of titin domains, and how it is influenced by confinement in a chaperonin-like cavity.

  16. Hand Gesture Modeling and Recognition for Human and Robot Interactive Assembly Using Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Chen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Gesture recognition is essential for human and robot collaboration. Within an industrial hybrid assembly cell, the performance of such a system significantly affects the safety of human workers. This work presents an approach to recognizing hand gestures accurately during an assembly task while in collaboration with a robot co-worker. We have designed and developed a sensor system for measuring natural human-robot interactions. The position and rotation information of a human worker's hands and fingertips are tracked in 3D space while completing a task. A modified chain-code method is proposed to describe the motion trajectory of the measured hands and fingertips. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM method is adopted to recognize patterns via data streams and identify workers' gesture patterns and assembly intentions. The effectiveness of the proposed system is verified by experimental results. The outcome demonstrates that the proposed system is able to automatically segment the data streams and recognize the gesture patterns thus represented with a reasonable accuracy ratio.

  17. Markov source model for printed music decoding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopec, Gary E.; Chou, Philip A.; Maltz, David A.

    1995-03-01

    This paper describes a Markov source model for a simple subset of printed music notation. The model is based on the Adobe Sonata music symbol set and a message language of our own design. Chord imaging is the most complex part of the model. Much of the complexity follows from a rule of music typography that requires the noteheads for adjacent pitches to be placed on opposite sides of the chord stem. This rule leads to a proliferation of cases for other typographic details such as dot placement. We describe the language of message strings accepted by the model and discuss some of the imaging issues associated with various aspects of the message language. We also point out some aspects of music notation that appear problematic for a finite-state representation. Development of the model was greatly facilitated by the duality between image synthesis and image decoding. Although our ultimate objective was a music image model for use in decoding, most of the development proceeded by using the evolving model for image synthesis, since it is computationally far less costly to image a message than to decode an image.

  18. Real-Time Landmine Detection with Ground-Penetrating Radar Using Discriminative and Adaptive Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho KC

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a real-time software system for landmine detection using ground-penetrating radar (GPR. The system includes an efficient and adaptive preprocessing component; a hidden Markov model- (HMM- based detector; a corrective training component; and an incremental update of the background model. The preprocessing is based on frequency-domain processing and performs ground-level alignment and background removal. The HMM detector is an improvement of a previously proposed system (baseline. It includes additional pre- and postprocessing steps to improve the time efficiency and enable real-time application. The corrective training component is used to adjust the initial model parameters to minimize the number of misclassification sequences. This component could be used offline, or online through feedback to adapt an initial model to specific sites and environments. The background update component adjusts the parameters of the background model to adapt it to each lane during testing. The proposed software system is applied to data acquired from three outdoor test sites at different geographic locations, using a state-of-the-art array GPR prototype. The first collection was used as training, and the other two (contain data from more than 1200 m of simulated dirt and gravel roads for testing. Our results indicate that, on average, the corrective training can improve the performance by about 10% for each site. For individual lanes, the performance gain can reach 50%.

  19. Asymptotics for Estimating Equations in Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Vinsløv; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    Results on asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimate in hidden Markov models are extended in two directions. The stationarity assumption is relaxed, which allows for a covariate process influencing the hidden Markov process. Furthermore a class of estimating equations is considered...

  20. Performability assessment by model checking of Markov reward models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baier, Christel; Cloth, L.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes efficient procedures for model checking Markov reward models, that allow us to evaluate, among others, the performability of computer-communication systems. We present the logic CSRL (Continuous Stochastic Reward Logic) to specify performability measures. It provides flexibility

  1. Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abner, Erin L; Charnigo, Richard J; Kryscio, Richard J

    2013-10-25

    A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields.

  2. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  3. Decoding and modelling of time series count data using Poisson hidden Markov model and Markov ordinal logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Tunny; Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Anandan, Shalini; George, Sebastian; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I

    2018-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are stochastic models in which the observations are assumed to follow a mixture distribution, but the parameters of the components are governed by a Markov chain which is unobservable. The issues related to the estimation of Poisson-hidden Markov models in which the observations are coming from mixture of Poisson distributions and the parameters of the component Poisson distributions are governed by an m-state Markov chain with an unknown transition probability matrix are explained here. These methods were applied to the data on Vibrio cholerae counts reported every month for 11-year span at Christian Medical College, Vellore, India. Using Viterbi algorithm, the best estimate of the state sequence was obtained and hence the transition probability matrix. The mean passage time between the states were estimated. The 95% confidence interval for the mean passage time was estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. The three hidden states of the estimated Markov chain are labelled as 'Low', 'Moderate' and 'High' with the mean counts of 1.4, 6.6 and 20.2 and the estimated average duration of stay of 3, 3 and 4 months, respectively. Environmental risk factors were studied using Markov ordinal logistic regression analysis. No significant association was found between disease severity levels and climate components.

  4. An improved segmentation-based HMM learning method for Condition-based Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, T; Lemeire, J; Cartella, F; Meganck, S

    2012-01-01

    In the domain of condition-based maintenance (CBM), persistence of machine states is a valid assumption. Based on this assumption, we present an improved Hidden Markov Model (HMM) learning algorithm for the assessment of equipment states. By a good estimation of initial parameters, more accurate learning can be achieved than by regular HMM learning methods which start with randomly chosen initial parameters. It is also better in avoiding getting trapped in local maxima. The data is segmented with a change-point analysis method which uses a combination of cumulative sum charts (CUSUM) and bootstrapping techniques. The method determines a confidence level that a state change happens. After the data is segmented, in order to label and combine the segments corresponding to the same states, a clustering technique is used based on a low-pass filter or root mean square (RMS) values of the features. The segments with their labelled hidden state are taken as 'evidence' to estimate the parameters of an HMM. Then, the estimated parameters are served as initial parameters for the traditional Baum-Welch (BW) learning algorithms, which are used to improve the parameters and train the model. Experiments on simulated and real data demonstrate that both performance and convergence speed is improved.

  5. Monitoring Farmland Loss Caused by Urbanization in Beijing from Modis Time Series Using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Y.; Meng, Y.; Chen, Y. X.; Jiang, C.; Yue, A. Z.

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we proposed a method to map urban encroachment onto farmland using satellite image time series (SITS) based on the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM). In this method, the farmland change process is decomposed into three hierarchical levels, i.e., the land cover level, the vegetation phenology level, and the SITS level. Then a three-level HHMM is constructed to model the multi-level semantic structure of farmland change process. Once the HHMM is established, a change from farmland to built-up could be detected by inferring the underlying state sequence that is most likely to generate the input time series. The performance of the method is evaluated on MODIS time series in Beijing. Results on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate that our method improves the change detection accuracy compared with the HMM-based method.

  6. A Hidden Markov Model for Urban-Scale Traffic Estimation Using Floating Car Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaomeng; Peng, Ling; Chi, Tianhe; Li, Mengzhu; Yao, Xiaojing; Shao, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Urban-scale traffic monitoring plays a vital role in reducing traffic congestion. Owing to its low cost and wide coverage, floating car data (FCD) serves as a novel approach to collecting traffic data. However, sparse probe data represents the vast majority of the data available on arterial roads in most urban environments. In order to overcome the problem of data sparseness, this paper proposes a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based traffic estimation model, in which the traffic condition on a road segment is considered as a hidden state that can be estimated according to the conditions of road segments having similar traffic characteristics. An algorithm based on clustering and pattern mining rather than on adjacency relationships is proposed to find clusters with road segments having similar traffic characteristics. A multi-clustering strategy is adopted to achieve a trade-off between clustering accuracy and coverage. Finally, the proposed model is designed and implemented on the basis of a real-time algorithm. Results of experiments based on real FCD confirm the applicability, accuracy, and efficiency of the model. In addition, the results indicate that the model is practicable for traffic estimation on urban arterials and works well even when more than 70% of the probe data are missing.

  7. AdOn HDP-HMM: An Adaptive Online Model for Segmentation and Classification of Sequential Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargi, Ava; Xu, Richard Yi Da; Piccardi, Massimo

    2017-09-21

    Recent years have witnessed an increasing need for the automated classification of sequential data, such as activities of daily living, social media interactions, financial series, and others. With the continuous flow of new data, it is critical to classify the observations on-the-fly and without being limited by a predetermined number of classes. In addition, a model should be able to update its parameters in response to a possible evolution in the distributions of the classes. This compelling problem, however, does not seem to have been adequately addressed in the literature, since most studies focus on offline classification over predefined class sets. In this paper, we present a principled solution for this problem based on an adaptive online system leveraging Markov switching models and hierarchical Dirichlet process priors. This adaptive online approach is capable of classifying the sequential data over an unlimited number of classes while meeting the memory and delay constraints typical of streaming contexts. In this paper, we introduce an adaptive ''learning rate'' that is responsible for balancing the extent to which the model retains its previous parameters or adapts to new observations. Experimental results on stationary and evolving synthetic data and two video data sets, TUM Assistive Kitchen and collated Weizmann, show a remarkable performance in terms of segmentation and classification, particularly for sequences from evolutionary distributions and/or those containing previously unseen classes.

  8. Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin

    2016-01-01

    This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis

  9. A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (SPHOMMCM) is presented. Moreover, parameter estimation method of TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments shows the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  10. A tridiagonal parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present a tridiagonal parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (TPHOMMCM). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  11. Time series segmentation: a new approach based on Genetic Algorithm and Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toreti, A.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.

    2009-04-01

    The subdivision of a time series into homogeneous segments has been performed using various methods applied to different disciplines. In climatology, for example, it is accompanied by the well-known homogenization problem and the detection of artificial change points. In this context, we present a new method (GAMM) based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA), applicable to series of independent observations (and easily adaptable to autoregressive processes). A left-to-right hidden Markov model, estimating the parameters and the best-state sequence, respectively, with the Baum-Welch and Viterbi algorithms, was applied. In order to avoid the well-known dependence of the Baum-Welch algorithm on the initial condition, a Genetic Algorithm was developed. This algorithm is characterized by mutation, elitism and a crossover procedure implemented with some restrictive rules. Moreover the function to be minimized was derived following the approach of Kehagias (2004), i.e. it is the so-called complete log-likelihood. The number of states was determined applying a two-fold cross-validation procedure (Celeux and Durand, 2008). Being aware that the last issue is complex, and it influences all the analysis, a Multi Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP; Mielke et al., 1981) was inserted. It tests the model with K+1 states (where K is the state number of the best model) if its likelihood is close to K-state model. Finally, an evaluation of the GAMM performances, applied as a break detection method in the field of climate time series homogenization, is shown. 1. G. Celeux and J.B. Durand, Comput Stat 2008. 2. A. Kehagias, Stoch Envir Res 2004. 3. P.W. Mielke, K.J. Berry, G.W. Brier, Monthly Wea Rev 1981.

  12. Modeling Uncertainty of Directed Movement via Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YIN Zhangcai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic time geography (PTG is suggested as an extension of (classical time geography, in order to present the uncertainty of an agent located at the accessible position by probability. This may provide a quantitative basis for most likely finding an agent at a location. In recent years, PTG based on normal distribution or Brown bridge has been proposed, its variance, however, is irrelevant with the agent's speed or divergent with the increase of the speed; so they are difficult to take into account application pertinence and stability. In this paper, a new method is proposed to model PTG based on Markov chain. Firstly, a bidirectional conditions Markov chain is modeled, the limit of which, when the moving speed is large enough, can be regarded as the Brown bridge, thus has the characteristics of digital stability. Then, the directed movement is mapped to Markov chains. The essential part is to build step length, the state space and transfer matrix of Markov chain according to the space and time position of directional movement, movement speed information, to make sure the Markov chain related to the movement speed. Finally, calculating continuously the probability distribution of the directed movement at any time by the Markov chains, it can be get the possibility of an agent located at the accessible position. Experimental results show that, the variance based on Markov chains not only is related to speed, but also is tending towards stability with increasing the agent's maximum speed.

  13. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Rocio; Bertrand, Sophie; Tam, Jorge; Fablet, Ronan

    2013-01-01

    One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs). We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour), while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising) were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%), significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  14. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocio Joo

    Full Text Available One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs. We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs. They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour, while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%, significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  15. Switching Markov chains for a holistic modeling of SIS unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechri, Walid; Simon, Christophe; BenOthman, Kamel

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a holistic approach to model the Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS). The model is based on Switching Markov Chain and integrates several parameters like Common Cause Failure, Imperfect Proof testing, partial proof testing, etc. The basic concepts of Switching Markov Chain applied to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the unavailability for a case study is presented. The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows us to assess the effect of each parameter on the SIS performance. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. - Highlights: • A holistic approach to model the unavailability safety systems using Switching Markov chains. • The model integrates several parameters like probability of failure due to the test, the probability of not detecting a failure in a test. • The basic concepts of the Switching Markov Chains are introduced and applied to compute the unavailability for safety systems. • The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows assessing the effect of each parameter on the chemical reactor performance

  16. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  17. A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ye

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.

  18. Feature Fusion Based Audio-Visual Speaker Identification Using Hidden Markov Model under Different Lighting Variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rabiul Islam

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to propose a feature fusion based Audio-Visual Speaker Identification (AVSI system with varied conditions of illumination environments. Among the different fusion strategies, feature level fusion has been used for the proposed AVSI system where Hidden Markov Model (HMM is used for learning and classification. Since the feature set contains richer information about the raw biometric data than any other levels, integration at feature level is expected to provide better authentication results. In this paper, both Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs and Linear Prediction Cepstral Coefficients (LPCCs are combined to get the audio feature vectors and Active Shape Model (ASM based appearance and shape facial features are concatenated to take the visual feature vectors. These combined audio and visual features are used for the feature-fusion. To reduce the dimension of the audio and visual feature vectors, Principal Component Analysis (PCA method is used. The VALID audio-visual database is used to measure the performance of the proposed system where four different illumination levels of lighting conditions are considered. Experimental results focus on the significance of the proposed audio-visual speaker identification system with various combinations of audio and visual features.

  19. Benchmarking of a Markov multizone model of contaminant transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Rachael M; Nicas, Mark

    2014-10-01

    A Markov chain model previously applied to the simulation of advection and diffusion process of gaseous contaminants is extended to three-dimensional transport of particulates in indoor environments. The model framework and assumptions are described. The performance of the Markov model is benchmarked against simple conventional models of contaminant transport. The Markov model is able to replicate elutriation predictions of particle deposition with distance from a point source, and the stirred settling of respirable particles. Comparisons with turbulent eddy diffusion models indicate that the Markov model exhibits numerical diffusion in the first seconds after release, but over time accurately predicts mean lateral dispersion. The Markov model exhibits some instability with grid length aspect when turbulence is incorporated by way of the turbulent diffusion coefficient, and advection is present. However, the magnitude of prediction error may be tolerable for some applications and can be avoided by incorporating turbulence by way of fluctuating velocity (e.g. turbulence intensity). © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

  20. Snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor based on hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyo-Ki; Lee, Jeon; Kim, Hojoong; Ha, Jin-Young; Lee, Kyoung-Joung

    2013-05-01

    This study presents a snoring detection method based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) using a piezo snoring sensor. Snoring is a major symptom of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). In most sleep studies, snoring is detected with a microphone. Since these studies analyze the acoustic properties of snoring, they need to acquire data at high sampling rates, so a large amount of data should be processed. Recently, several sleep studies have monitored snoring using a piezo snoring sensor. However, an automatic method for snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor has not been reported in the literature. This study proposed the HMM-based method to detect snoring using this sensor, which is attached to the neck. The data from 21 patients with OSA were gathered for training and test sets. The short-time Fourier transform and short-time energy were computed so they could be applied to HMMs. The data were classified as snoring, noise and silence according to their HMMs. As a result, the sensitivity and the positive predictivity values were 93.3% and 99.1% for snoring detection, respectively. The results demonstrated that the method produced simple, portable and user-friendly detection tools that provide an alternative to the microphone-based method.

  1. Snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor based on hidden Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyo-Ki; Lee, Jeon; Lee, Kyoung-Joung; Kim, Hojoong; Ha, Jin-Young

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a snoring detection method based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) using a piezo snoring sensor. Snoring is a major symptom of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). In most sleep studies, snoring is detected with a microphone. Since these studies analyze the acoustic properties of snoring, they need to acquire data at high sampling rates, so a large amount of data should be processed. Recently, several sleep studies have monitored snoring using a piezo snoring sensor. However, an automatic method for snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor has not been reported in the literature. This study proposed the HMM-based method to detect snoring using this sensor, which is attached to the neck. The data from 21 patients with OSA were gathered for training and test sets. The short-time Fourier transform and short-time energy were computed so they could be applied to HMMs. The data were classified as snoring, noise and silence according to their HMMs. As a result, the sensitivity and the positive predictivity values were 93.3% and 99.1% for snoring detection, respectively. The results demonstrated that the method produced simple, portable and user-friendly detection tools that provide an alternative to the microphone-based method. (note)

  2. A Markov Model for Commen-Cause Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Platz, Ole

    1984-01-01

    A continuous time four-state Markov chain is shown to cover several of the models that have been used for describing dependencies between failures of components in redundant systems. Among these are the models derived by Marshall and Olkin and by Freund and models for one-out-of-three and two...

  3. Power plant reliability calculation with Markov chain models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senegacnik, A.; Tuma, M.

    1998-01-01

    In the paper power plant operation is modelled using continuous time Markov chains with discrete state space. The model is used to compute the power plant reliability and the importance and influence of individual states, as well as the transition probabilities between states. For comparison the model is fitted to data for coal and nuclear power plants recorded over several years. (orig.) [de

  4. The Candy model revisited: Markov properties and inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette); R.S. Stoica

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThis paper studies the Candy model, a marked point process introduced by Stoica et al. (2000). We prove Ruelle and local stability, investigate its Markov properties, and discuss how the model may be sampled. Finally, we consider estimation of the model parameters and present some

  5. Dynamic modeling of presence of occupants using inhomogeneous Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Iversen, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    on time of day, and by use of a filter of the observations it is able to capture per-employee sequence dynamics. Simulations using this method are compared with simulations using homogeneous Markov chains and show far better ability to reproduce key properties of the data. The method is based...... on inhomogeneous Markov chains with where the transition probabilities are estimated using generalized linear models with polynomials, B-splines, and a filter of passed observations as inputs. For treating the dispersion of the data series, a hierarchical model structure is used where one model is for low presence...

  6. Detecting Faults By Use Of Hidden Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Padhraic J.

    1995-01-01

    Frequency of false alarms reduced. Faults in complicated dynamic system (e.g., antenna-aiming system, telecommunication network, or human heart) detected automatically by method of automated, continuous monitoring. Obtains time-series data by sampling multiple sensor outputs at discrete intervals of t and processes data via algorithm determining whether system in normal or faulty state. Algorithm implements, among other things, hidden first-order temporal Markov model of states of system. Mathematical model of dynamics of system not needed. Present method is "prior" method mentioned in "Improved Hidden-Markov-Model Method of Detecting Faults" (NPO-18982).

  7. Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)], E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Velazquez, J.C. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico); Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 La Habana (Cuba); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)

    2009-09-15

    A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.

  8. Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caleyo, F.; Velazquez, J.C.; Valor, A.; Hallen, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.

  9. Clinical Prediction Performance of Glaucoma Progression Using a 2-Dimensional Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model with Structural and Functional Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Youngseok; Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Wu, Mengfei; Liu, Yu-Ying; Lucy, Katie A; Lavinsky, Fabio; Liu, Mengling; Wollstein, Gadi; Schuman, Joel S

    2018-03-20

    Previously, we introduced a state-based 2-dimensional continuous-time hidden Markov model (2D CT HMM) to model the pattern of detected glaucoma changes using structural and functional information simultaneously. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the detected glaucoma change prediction performance of the model in a real clinical setting using a retrospective longitudinal dataset. Longitudinal, retrospective study. One hundred thirty-four eyes from 134 participants diagnosed with glaucoma or as glaucoma suspects (average follow-up, 4.4±1.2 years; average number of visits, 7.1±1.8). A 2D CT HMM model was trained using OCT (Cirrus HD-OCT; Zeiss, Dublin, CA) average circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (cRNFL) thickness and visual field index (VFI) or mean deviation (MD; Humphrey Field Analyzer; Zeiss). The model was trained using a subset of the data (107 of 134 eyes [80%]) including all visits except for the last visit, which was used to test the prediction performance (training set). Additionally, the remaining 27 eyes were used for secondary performance testing as an independent group (validation set). The 2D CT HMM predicts 1 of 4 possible detected state changes based on 1 input state. Prediction accuracy was assessed as the percentage of correct prediction against the patient's actual recorded state. In addition, deviations of the predicted long-term detected change paths from the actual detected change paths were measured. Baseline mean ± standard deviation age was 61.9±11.4 years, VFI was 90.7±17.4, MD was -3.50±6.04 dB, and cRNFL thickness was 74.9±12.2 μm. The accuracy of detected glaucoma change prediction using the training set was comparable with the validation set (57.0% and 68.0%, respectively). Prediction deviation from the actual detected change path showed stability throughout patient follow-up. The 2D CT HMM demonstrated promising prediction performance in detecting glaucoma change performance in a simulated clinical setting

  10. Application of Hidden Markov Models in Biomolecular Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Saurabh; Shamsi, Zahra; Moffett, Alexander S; Selvam, Balaji; Shukla, Diwakar

    2017-01-01

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide a framework to analyze large trajectories of biomolecular simulation datasets. HMMs decompose the conformational space of a biological molecule into finite number of states that interconvert among each other with certain rates. HMMs simplify long timescale trajectories for human comprehension, and allow comparison of simulations with experimental data. In this chapter, we provide an overview of building HMMs for analyzing bimolecular simulation datasets. We demonstrate the procedure for building a Hidden Markov model for Met-enkephalin peptide simulation dataset and compare the timescales of the process.

  11. Hierarchical Multiple Markov Chain Model for Unsupervised Texture Segmentation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Scarpa, G.; Gaetano, R.; Haindl, Michal; Zerubia, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 8 (2009), s. 1830-1843 ISSN 1057-7149 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0593 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 507752 - MUSCLE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Classification * texture analysis * segmentation * hierarchical image models * Markov process Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 2.848, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/RO/haindl-hierarchical multiple markov chain model for unsupervised texture segmentation.pdf

  12. Shape Modelling Using Markov Random Field Restoration of Point Correspondences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Hilger, Klaus Baggesen

    2003-01-01

    A method for building statistical point distribution models is proposed. The novelty in this paper is the adaption of Markov random field regularization of the correspondence field over the set of shapes. The new approach leads to a generative model that produces highly homogeneous polygonized sh...

  13. K­MEANS CLUSTERING FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perrone, M.P.; Connell, S.D.

    2004-01-01

    An unsupervised k­means clustering algorithm for hidden Markov models is described and applied to the task of generating subclass models for individual handwritten character classes. The algorithm is compared to a related clustering method and shown to give a relative change in the error rate of as

  14. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...

  15. Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, Hidden Markov Model is applied to model human movements as to facilitate an automatic detection of the same. A number of activities were simulated with the help of two persons. The four movements considered are walking, sitting down-getting up, fall while walking and fall while standing. The data is ...

  16. Efficient Modelling and Generation of Markov Automata (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a framework for the efficient modelling and generation of Markov automata. It consists of (1) the data-rich process-algebraic language MAPA, allowing concise modelling of systems with nondeterminism, probability and Markovian timing; (2) a restricted form of the language, the

  17. Analyzing the profit-loss sharing contracts with Markov model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine how to use first order Markov chain to build a reliable monitoring system for the profit-loss sharing based contracts (PLS as the mode of financing contracts in Islamic bank with censored continuous-time observations. The paper adopts the longitudinal analysis with the first order Markov chain framework. Laplace transform was used with homogenous continuous time assumption, from discretized generator matrix, to generate the transition matrix. Various metrics, i.e.: eigenvalue and eigenvector were used to test the first order Markov chain assumption. Cox semi parametric model was used also to analyze the momentum and waiting time effect as non-Markov behavior. The result shows that first order Markov chain is powerful as a monitoring tool for Islamic banks. We find that waiting time negatively affected present rating downgrade (upgrade significantly. Likewise, momentum covariate showed negative effect. Finally, the result confirms that different origin rating have different movement behavior. The paper explores the potential of Markov chain framework as a risk management tool for Islamic banks. It provides valuable insight and integrative model for banks to manage their borrower accounts. This model can be developed to be a powerful early warning system to identify which borrower needs to be monitored intensively. Ultimately, this model could potentially increase the efficiency, productivity and competitiveness of Islamic banks in Indonesia. The analysis used only rating data. Further study should be able to give additional information about the determinant factors of rating movement of the borrowers by incorporating various factors such as contract-related factors, bank-related factors, borrower-related factors and macroeconomic factors.

  18. Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior

  19. Markov chain aggregation for agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Banisch, Sven

    2016-01-01

    This self-contained text develops a Markov chain approach that makes the rigorous analysis of a class of microscopic models that specify the dynamics of complex systems at the individual level possible. It presents a general framework of aggregation in agent-based and related computational models, one which makes use of lumpability and information theory in order to link the micro and macro levels of observation. The starting point is a microscopic Markov chain description of the dynamical process in complete correspondence with the dynamical behavior of the agent-based model (ABM), which is obtained by considering the set of all possible agent configurations as the state space of a huge Markov chain. An explicit formal representation of a resulting “micro-chain” including microscopic transition rates is derived for a class of models by using the random mapping representation of a Markov process. The type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic part of the model, which defines the upd...

  20. Markov chain model for demersal fish catch analysis in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firdaniza; Gusriani, N.

    2018-03-01

    As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has considerable potential fishery resources. One of the fish resources that has high economic value is demersal fish. Demersal fish is a fish with a habitat in the muddy seabed. Demersal fish scattered throughout the Indonesian seas. Demersal fish production in each Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area (FMA) varies each year. In this paper we have discussed the Markov chain model for demersal fish yield analysis throughout all Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area. Data of demersal fish catch in every FMA in 2005-2014 was obtained from Directorate of Capture Fisheries. From this data a transition probability matrix is determined by the number of transitions from the catch that lie below the median or above the median. The Markov chain model of demersal fish catch data was an ergodic Markov chain model, so that the limiting probability of the Markov chain model can be determined. The predictive value of demersal fishing yields was obtained by calculating the combination of limiting probability with average catch results below the median and above the median. The results showed that for 2018 and long-term demersal fishing results in most of FMA were below the median value.

  1. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 1. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya. J C Joshi Tankeshwar Kumar Sunita Srivastava Divya Sachdeva. Volume 126 Issue 1 February 2017 ...

  2. Model checking conditional CSL for continuous-time Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Yang; Xu, Ming; Zhan, Naijun

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the model-checking problem of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with respect to conditional logic. To the end, we extend Continuous Stochastic Logic introduced in Aziz et al. (2000) [1] to Conditional Continuous Stochastic Logic (CCSL) by introducing a conditional...

  3. Reservoir Modeling Combining Geostatistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zunino, Andrea; Lange, Katrine; Melnikova, Yulia

    2014-01-01

    We present a study on the inversion of seismic reflection data generated from a synthetic reservoir model. Our aim is to invert directly for rock facies and porosity of the target reservoir zone. We solve this inverse problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method to handle the nonlinear...

  4. Book Review: "Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction using R. by Walter Zucchini and Iain L. MacDonald. Chapman & Hall (CRC Press), 2009. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v10i1.61717 · AJOL African Journals Online.

  5. A theoretical Markov chain model for evaluating correctional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper a stochastic method is applied in the study of the long time effect of confinement in a correctional institution on the behaviour of a person with criminal tendencies. The approach used is Markov chain, which uses past history to predict the state of a system in the future. A model is developed for comparing the ...

  6. A Markov deterioration model for predicting recurrent maintenance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The parameters of the Markov chain model for predicting the condition of the road at a design · period for· the flexible pavement failures of wheel track rutting, cracks and pot holes were developed for the Niger State· road network . in Nigeria. Twelve sampled candidate roads were each subjected to standard inventory, traffic ...

  7. Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit

    1989-01-01

    Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

  8. ON THE ISSUE OF "MEMORY" MARKOV MODEL OF DAMAGE ACCUMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Lantuh-Lyaschenko

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of a probabilistic approach for the modeling of service life of highway bridge elements. The focus of this paper is on the Markov stochastic deterioration models. These models can be used as effective tool for technical state assessments and prediction of residual resource of a structure. For the bridge maintenance purpose these models can give quantitative criteria of a reliability level, risk and prediction algorithms of the residual resource.

  9. Bearing Performance Degradation Assessment Using Linear Discriminant Analysis and Coupled HMM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, T; Chen, J; Zhou, X N; Xiao, W B

    2012-01-01

    Bearing is one of the most important units in rotary machinery, its performance may vary significantly under different working stages. Thus it is critical to choose the most effective features for bearing performance degradation prediction. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) is a useful method in finding few feature's dimensions that best discriminate a set of features extracted from original vibration signals. Another challenge in bearing performance degradation is how to build a model to recognize the different conditions with the data coming from different monitoring channels. In this paper, coupled hidden Markov models (CHMM) is presented to model interacting processes which can overcome the defections of the HMM. Because the input data in CHMM are collected by several sensors, and the interacting information can be fused by coupled modalities, it is more effective than HMM which used only one state chain. The model can be used in estimating the bearing performance degradation states according to several observation data. When becoming degradation pattern recognition, the new observation features should be input into the pre-trained CHMM and calculate the performance index (PI) of the outputs, the changing of PI could be used to describe the different degradation level of the bearings. The results show that PI will decline with the increase of the bearing degradation. Assessment results of the whole life time experimental bearing signals validate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

  10. Markov Chain Models for Stochastic Behavior in Resonance Overlap Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Morgan; Quillen, Alice

    2018-01-01

    We aim to predict lifetimes of particles in chaotic zoneswhere resonances overlap. A continuous-time Markov chain model isconstructed using mean motion resonance libration timescales toestimate transition times between resonances. The model is applied todiffusion in the co-rotation region of a planet. For particles begunat low eccentricity, the model is effective for early diffusion, butnot at later time when particles experience close encounters to the planet.

  11. Online adaptive learning of Left-Right Continuous HMM for bearings condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cartella, F; Liu, T; Meganck, S; Lemeire, J; Sahli, H

    2012-01-01

    Standard Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) approaches used for condition assessment of bearings assume that all the possible system states are fixed and known a priori and that training data from all of the associated states are available. Moreover, the training procedure is performed offline, and only once at the beginning, with the available training set. These assumptions significantly impede component diagnosis applications when all of the possible states of the system are not known in advance or environmental factors or operative conditions change during the tool's usage. The method introduced in this paper overcomes the above limitations and proposes an approach to detect unknown degradation modalities using a Left-Right Continuous HMM with a variable state space. The proposed HMM is combined with Change Point Detection algorithms to (i) estimate, from historical observations, the initial number of the model's states, as well as to perform an initial guess of the parameters, and (ii) to adaptively recognize new states and, consequently, adjust the model parameters during monitoring. The approach has been tested using real monitoring data taken from the NASA benchmark repository. A comparative study with state of the art techniques shows improvements in terms of reduction of the training procedure iterations, and early detection of unknown states.

  12. Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-09-01

    Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Objective classification of latent behavioral states in bio-logging data using multivariate-normal hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Joe Scutt; Patterson, Toby A; Leroy, Bruno; Pilling, Graham M; Nicol, Simon J

    2015-07-01

    Analysis of complex time-series data from ecological system study requires quantitative tools for objective description and classification. These tools must take into account largely ignored problems of bias in manual classification, autocorrelation, and noise. Here we describe a method using existing estimation techniques for multivariate-normal hidden Markov models (HMMs) to develop such a classification. We use high-resolution behavioral data from bio-loggers attached to free-roaming pelagic tuna as an example. Observed patterns are assumed to be generated by an unseen Markov process that switches between several multivariate-normal distributions. Our approach is assessed in two parts. The first uses simulation experiments, from which the ability of the HMM to estimate known parameter values is examined using artificial time series of data consistent with hypotheses about pelagic predator foraging ecology. The second is the application to time series of continuous vertical movement data from yellowfin and bigeye tuna taken from tuna tagging experiments. These data were compressed into summary metrics capturing the variation of patterns in diving behavior and formed into a multivariate time series used to estimate a HMM. Each observation was associated with covariate information incorporating the effect of day and night on behavioral switching. Known parameter values were well recovered by the HMMs in our simulation experiments, resulting in mean correct classification rates of 90-97%, although some variance-covariance parameters were estimated less accurately. HMMs with two distinct behavioral states were selected for every time series of real tuna data, predicting a shallow warm state, which was similar across all individuals, and a deep colder state, which was more variable. Marked diurnal behavioral switching was predicted, consistent with many previous empirical studies on tuna. HMMs provide easily interpretable models for the objective classification of

  14. Hidden Markov models applied to a subsequence of the Xylella fastidiosa genome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Cibele Q. da

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Dependencies in DNA sequences are frequently modeled using Markov models. However, Markov chains cannot account for heterogeneity that may be present in different regions of the same DNA sequence. Hidden Markov models are more realistic than Markov models since they allow for the identification of heterogeneous regions of a DNA sequence. In this study we present an application of hidden Markov models to a subsequence of the Xylella fastidiosa DNA data. We found that a three-state model provides a good description for the data considered.

  15. Improving a HMM-based off-line handwriting recognition system using MME-PSO optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdani, Mahdi; El Abed, Haikal; Hamdani, Tarek M.; Märgner, Volker; Alimi, Adel M.

    2011-01-01

    One of the trivial steps in the development of a classifier is the design of its architecture. This paper presents a new algorithm, Multi Models Evolvement (MME) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). This algorithm is a modified version of the basic PSO, which is used to the unsupervised design of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based architectures. For instance, the proposed algorithm is applied to an Arabic handwriting recognizer based on discrete probability HMMs. After the optimization of their architectures, HMMs are trained with the Baum- Welch algorithm. The validation of the system is based on the IfN/ENIT database. The performance of the developed approach is compared to the participating systems at the 2005 competition organized on Arabic handwriting recognition on the International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition (ICDAR). The final system is a combination between an optimized HMM with 6 other HMMs obtained by a simple variation of the number of states. An absolute improvement of 6% of word recognition rate with about 81% is presented. This improvement is achieved comparing to the basic system (ARAB-IfN). The proposed recognizer outperforms also most of the known state-of-the-art systems.

  16. Modelling and evaluation of surgical performance using hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megali, Giuseppe; Sinigaglia, Stefano; Tonet, Oliver; Dario, Paolo

    2006-10-01

    Minimally invasive surgery has become very widespread in the last ten years. Since surgeons experience difficulties in learning and mastering minimally invasive techniques, the development of training methods is of great importance. While the introduction of virtual reality-based simulators has introduced a new paradigm in surgical training, skill evaluation methods are far from being objective. This paper proposes a method for defining a model of surgical expertise and an objective metric to evaluate performance in laparoscopic surgery. Our approach is based on the processing of kinematic data describing movements of surgical instruments. We use hidden Markov model theory to define an expert model that describes expert surgical gesture. The model is trained on kinematic data related to exercises performed on a surgical simulator by experienced surgeons. Subsequently, we use this expert model as a reference model in the definition of an objective metric to evaluate performance of surgeons with different abilities. Preliminary results show that, using different topologies for the expert model, the method can be efficiently used both for the discrimination between experienced and novice surgeons, and for the quantitative assessment of surgical ability.

  17. A Markov chain model for CANDU feeder pipe degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datla, S.; Dinnie, K.; Usmani, A.; Yuan, X.-X.

    2008-01-01

    There is need for risk based approach to manage feeder pipe degradation to ensure safe operation by minimizing the nuclear safety risk. The current lack of understanding of some fundamental degradation mechanisms will result in uncertainty in predicting the rupture frequency. There are still concerns caused by uncertainties in the inspection techniques and engineering evaluations which should be addressed in the current procedures. A probabilistic approach is therefore useful in quantifying the risk and also it provides a tool for risk based decision making. This paper discusses the application of Markov chain model for feeder pipes in order to predict and manage the risks associated with the existing and future aging-related feeder degradation mechanisms. The major challenge in the approach is the lack of service data in characterizing the transition probabilities of the Markov model. The paper also discusses various approaches in estimating plant specific degradation rates. (author)

  18. Demographic Modeling Via 3-dimensional Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Viquez, Juan Jose; Campos, Alexander; Loria, Jorge; Mendoza, Luis Alfredo; Viquez, Jorge Aurelio

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds (contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution. Furthermore, the model introduces opportunities to quantify the financial ows coming from future populations such as salaries, contributions, salary supplements, employer contribution to savings/pensions, among others. The implementation of this probabilistic model will be of great ...

  19. Limits of performance for the model reduction problem of hidden Markov models

    KAUST Repository

    Kotsalis, Georgios

    2015-12-15

    We introduce system theoretic notions of a Hankel operator, and Hankel norm for hidden Markov models. We show how the related Hankel singular values provide lower bounds on the norm of the difference between a hidden Markov model of order n and any lower order approximant of order n̂ < n.

  20. Limits of performance for the model reduction problem of hidden Markov models

    KAUST Repository

    Kotsalis, Georgios; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2015-01-01

    We introduce system theoretic notions of a Hankel operator, and Hankel norm for hidden Markov models. We show how the related Hankel singular values provide lower bounds on the norm of the difference between a hidden Markov model of order n and any lower order approximant of order n̂ < n.

  1. A Bayesian Markov geostatistical model for estimation of hydrogeological properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, L.; Gustafson, G.

    1996-01-01

    A geostatistical methodology based on Markov-chain analysis and Bayesian statistics was developed for probability estimations of hydrogeological and geological properties in the siting process of a nuclear waste repository. The probability estimates have practical use in decision-making on issues such as siting, investigation programs, and construction design. The methodology is nonparametric which makes it possible to handle information that does not exhibit standard statistical distributions, as is often the case for classified information. Data do not need to meet the requirements on additivity and normality as with the geostatistical methods based on regionalized variable theory, e.g., kriging. The methodology also has a formal way for incorporating professional judgments through the use of Bayesian statistics, which allows for updating of prior estimates to posterior probabilities each time new information becomes available. A Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model (BayMar) software was developed for implementation of the methodology in two and three dimensions. This paper gives (1) a theoretical description of the Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model; (2) a short description of the BayMar software; and (3) an example of application of the model for estimating the suitability for repository establishment with respect to the three parameters of lithology, hydraulic conductivity, and rock quality designation index (RQD) at 400--500 meters below ground surface in an area around the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southeastern Sweden

  2. Hidden-Markov-Model Analysis Of Telemanipulator Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannaford, Blake; Lee, Paul

    1991-01-01

    Mathematical model and procedure based on hidden-Markov-model concept undergoing development for use in analysis and prediction of outputs of force and torque sensors of telerobotic manipulators. In model, overall task broken down into subgoals, and transition probabilities encode ease with which operator completes each subgoal. Process portion of model encodes task-sequence/subgoal structure, and probability-density functions for forces and torques associated with each state of manipulation encode sensor signals that one expects to observe at subgoal. Parameters of model constructed from engineering knowledge of task.

  3. Autoregressive-moving-average hidden Markov model for vision-based fall prediction-An application for walker robot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghvaei, Sajjad; Jahanandish, Mohammad Hasan; Kosuge, Kazuhiro

    2017-01-01

    Population aging of the societies requires providing the elderly with safe and dependable assistive technologies in daily life activities. Improving the fall detection algorithms can play a major role in achieving this goal. This article proposes a real-time fall prediction algorithm based on the acquired visual data of a user with walking assistive system from a depth sensor. In the lack of a coupled dynamic model of the human and the assistive walker a hybrid "system identification-machine learning" approach is used. An autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model is fitted on the time-series walking data to forecast the upcoming states, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based classifier is built on the top of the ARMA model to predict falling in the upcoming time frames. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through experiments with four subjects including an experienced physiotherapist while using a walker robot in five different falling scenarios; namely, fall forward, fall down, fall back, fall left, and fall right. The algorithm successfully predicts the fall with a rate of 84.72%.

  4. Validation of Inter-Subject Training for Hidden Markov Models Applied to Gait Phase Detection in Children with Cerebral Palsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juri Taborri

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Gait-phase recognition is a necessary functionality to drive robotic rehabilitation devices for lower limbs. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs represent a viable solution, but they need subject-specific training, making data processing very time-consuming. Here, we validated an inter-subject procedure to avoid the intra-subject one in two, four and six gait-phase models in pediatric subjects. The inter-subject procedure consists in the identification of a standardized parameter set to adapt the model to measurements. We tested the inter-subject procedure both on scalar and distributed classifiers. Ten healthy children and ten hemiplegic children, each equipped with two Inertial Measurement Units placed on shank and foot, were recruited. The sagittal component of angular velocity was recorded by gyroscopes while subjects performed four walking trials on a treadmill. The goodness of classifiers was evaluated with the Receiver Operating Characteristic. The results provided a goodness from good to optimum for all examined classifiers (0 < G < 0.6, with the best performance for the distributed classifier in two-phase recognition (G = 0.02. Differences were found among gait partitioning models, while no differences were found between training procedures with the exception of the shank classifier. Our results raise the possibility of avoiding subject-specific training in HMM for gait-phase recognition and its implementation to control exoskeletons for the pediatric population.

  5. Extracting Markov Models of Peptide Conformational Dynamics from Simulation Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultheis, Verena; Hirschberger, Thomas; Carstens, Heiko; Tavan, Paul

    2005-07-01

    A high-dimensional time series obtained by simulating a complex and stochastic dynamical system (like a peptide in solution) may code an underlying multiple-state Markov process. We present a computational approach to most plausibly identify and reconstruct this process from the simulated trajectory. Using a mixture of normal distributions we first construct a maximum likelihood estimate of the point density associated with this time series and thus obtain a density-oriented partition of the data space. This discretization allows us to estimate the transfer operator as a matrix of moderate dimension at sufficient statistics. A nonlinear dynamics involving that matrix and, alternatively, a deterministic coarse-graining procedure are employed to construct respective hierarchies of Markov models, from which the model most plausibly mapping the generating stochastic process is selected by consideration of certain observables. Within both procedures the data are classified in terms of prototypical points, the conformations, marking the various Markov states. As a typical example, the approach is applied to analyze the conformational dynamics of a tripeptide in solution. The corresponding high-dimensional time series has been obtained from an extended molecular dynamics simulation.

  6. Continuous Change Detection and Classification Using Hidden Markov Model: A Case Study for Monitoring Urban Encroachment onto Farmland in Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Yuan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a novel method to continuously monitor land cover change using satellite image time series, which can extract comprehensive change information including change time, location, and “from-to” information. This method is based on a hidden Markov model (HMM trained for each land cover class. Assuming a pixel’s initial class has been obtained, likelihoods of the corresponding model are calculated on incoming time series extracted with a temporal sliding window. By observing the likelihood change over the windows, land cover change can be precisely detected from the dramatic drop of likelihood. The established HMMs are then used for identifying the land cover class after the change. As a case study, the proposed method is applied to monitoring urban encroachment onto farmland in Beijing using 10-year MODIS time series from 2001 to 2010. The performance is evaluated on a validation set for different model structures and thresholds. Compared with other change detection methods, the proposed method shows superior change detection accuracy. In addition, it is also more computationally efficient.

  7. Characterization of prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters usinghidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Anders Gorm; Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we utilize hidden Markov models (HMMs) and information theory to analyze prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters. We perform this analysis with special emphasis on the fact that promoters are divided into a number of different classes, depending on which polymerase-associated factors...... that bind to them. We find that HMMs trained on such subclasses of Escherichia coli promoters (specifically, the so-called sigma-70 and sigma-54 classes) give an excellent classification of unknown promoters with respect to sigma-class. HMMs trained on eukaryotic sequences from human genes also model nicely...

  8. Characterization of prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters using hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Anders Gorm; Baldi, P.; Chauvin, Y.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we utilize hidden Markov models (HMMs) and information theory to analyze prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters. We perform this analysis with special emphasis on the fact that promoters are divided into a number of different classes, depending on which polymerase-associated factors...... that bind to them. We find that HMMs trained on such subclasses of Escherichia coli promoters (specifically, the so-called sigma 70 and sigma 54 classes) give an excellent classification of unknown promoters with respect to sigma-class. HMMs trained on eukaryotic sequences from human genes also model nicely...

  9. Markov dynamic models for long-timescale protein motion.

    KAUST Repository

    Chiang, Tsung-Han

    2010-06-01

    Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established method for studying protein motion at the atomic scale. However, it is computationally intensive and generates massive amounts of data. One way of addressing the dual challenges of computation efficiency and data analysis is to construct simplified models of long-timescale protein motion from MD simulation data. In this direction, we propose to use Markov models with hidden states, in which the Markovian states represent potentially overlapping probabilistic distributions over protein conformations. We also propose a principled criterion for evaluating the quality of a model by its ability to predict long-timescale protein motions. Our method was tested on 2D synthetic energy landscapes and two extensively studied peptides, alanine dipeptide and the villin headpiece subdomain (HP-35 NleNle). One interesting finding is that although a widely accepted model of alanine dipeptide contains six states, a simpler model with only three states is equally good for predicting long-timescale motions. We also used the constructed Markov models to estimate important kinetic and dynamic quantities for protein folding, in particular, mean first-passage time. The results are consistent with available experimental measurements.

  10. Markov dynamic models for long-timescale protein motion.

    KAUST Repository

    Chiang, Tsung-Han; Hsu, David; Latombe, Jean-Claude

    2010-01-01

    Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established method for studying protein motion at the atomic scale. However, it is computationally intensive and generates massive amounts of data. One way of addressing the dual challenges of computation efficiency and data analysis is to construct simplified models of long-timescale protein motion from MD simulation data. In this direction, we propose to use Markov models with hidden states, in which the Markovian states represent potentially overlapping probabilistic distributions over protein conformations. We also propose a principled criterion for evaluating the quality of a model by its ability to predict long-timescale protein motions. Our method was tested on 2D synthetic energy landscapes and two extensively studied peptides, alanine dipeptide and the villin headpiece subdomain (HP-35 NleNle). One interesting finding is that although a widely accepted model of alanine dipeptide contains six states, a simpler model with only three states is equally good for predicting long-timescale motions. We also used the constructed Markov models to estimate important kinetic and dynamic quantities for protein folding, in particular, mean first-passage time. The results are consistent with available experimental measurements.

  11. Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modeling with a semi-Markov approach

    OpenAIRE

    Corini, Chiara; D'Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio; Manca, Raimondo

    2015-01-01

    We propose a statistical approach to tornadoes modeling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modeling the tornadoes intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornadoes intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornadoes intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reprod...

  12. Effect of HMM Glutenin Subunits on Wheat Quality Attributes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Horvat

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Glutenin is a group of polymeric gluten proteins. Glutenin molecules consist of glutenin subunits linked together with disulphide bonds and having higher (HMM-GS and lower (LMM-GS molecular mass. The main objective of this study is the evaluation of the influence of HMM-GS on flour processing properties. Seven bread wheat genotypes with contrasting quality attributes and different HMM-GS composition were analyzed during three years. The composition and quantity of HMM-GS were determined by SDS-PAGE and RP-HPLC, respectively. The quality diversity among genotypes was estimated by the analysis of wheat grain, and flour and bread quality parameters. The presence of HMM glutenin subunits 1 and 2* at Glu-A1 and the subunits 5+10 at Glu-D1 loci, as well as a higher proportion of total HMM-GS, had a positive effect on wheat quality. Cluster analysis of the three groups of data (genotype and HMM-GS, flour and bread quality, and dough rheology yielded the same hierarchical structure for the first top three levels, and similarity of the corresponding dendrograms was proved by the principal eigenvalues of the corresponding Euclidian distance matrices. The obtained similarity in classification based on essentially different types of measurements reflects strong natural association between genetic data, product quality and physical properties. Principal component analysis (PCA was applied to effectively reduce large data set into lower dimensions of latent variables amenable for the analysis. PCA analysis of the total set of data (15 variables revealed a very strong interrelationship between the variables. The first three PCA components accounted for 96 % of the total variance, which was significant to the level of 0.05 and was considered as the level of experimental error. These data imply that the quality of wheat cultivars can be contributed to HMM-GS data and should be taken into account in breeding programs assisted by computer models with the aim to

  13. New Markov Model Approaches to Deciphering Microbial Genome Function and Evolution: Comparative Genomics of Laterally Transferred Genes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borodovsky, M.

    2013-04-11

    Algorithmic methods for gene prediction have been developed and successfully applied to many different prokaryotic genome sequences. As the set of genes in a particular genome is not homogeneous with respect to DNA sequence composition features, the GeneMark.hmm program utilizes two Markov models representing distinct classes of protein coding genes denoted "typical" and "atypical". Atypical genes are those whose DNA features deviate significantly from those classified as typical and they represent approximately 10% of any given genome. In addition to the inherent interest of more accurately predicting genes, the atypical status of these genes may also reflect their separate evolutionary ancestry from other genes in that genome. We hypothesize that atypical genes are largely comprised of those genes that have been relatively recently acquired through lateral gene transfer (LGT). If so, what fraction of atypical genes are such bona fide LGTs? We have made atypical gene predictions for all fully completed prokaryotic genomes; we have been able to compare these results to other "surrogate" methods of LGT prediction.

  14. Hidden Markov latent variable models with multivariate longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xinyuan; Xia, Yemao; Zhu, Hongtu

    2017-03-01

    Cocaine addiction is chronic and persistent, and has become a major social and health problem in many countries. Existing studies have shown that cocaine addicts often undergo episodic periods of addiction to, moderate dependence on, or swearing off cocaine. Given its reversible feature, cocaine use can be formulated as a stochastic process that transits from one state to another, while the impacts of various factors, such as treatment received and individuals' psychological problems on cocaine use, may vary across states. This article develops a hidden Markov latent variable model to study multivariate longitudinal data concerning cocaine use from a California Civil Addict Program. The proposed model generalizes conventional latent variable models to allow bidirectional transition between cocaine-addiction states and conventional hidden Markov models to allow latent variables and their dynamic interrelationship. We develop a maximum-likelihood approach, along with a Monte Carlo expectation conditional maximization (MCECM) algorithm, to conduct parameter estimation. The asymptotic properties of the parameter estimates and statistics for testing the heterogeneity of model parameters are investigated. The finite sample performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by simulation studies. The application to cocaine use study provides insights into the prevention of cocaine use. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  15. Important factors in HMM-based phonetic segmentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Niekerk, DR

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available , window and step sizes. Taking into account that the segmentation system trains and applies the HMM models on a single speaker only, our first con- cern was the applicability of the window and step sizes that are commonly used for speech recognition...

  16. Markov Chain Modelling for Short-Term NDVI Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stepčenko Artūrs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the NDVI time series forecasting model has been developed based on the use of discrete time, continuous state Markov chain of suitable order. The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI is an indicator that describes the amount of chlorophyll (the green mass and shows the relative density and health of vegetation; therefore, it is an important variable for vegetation forecasting. A Markov chain is a stochastic process that consists of a state space. This stochastic process undergoes transitions from one state to another in the state space with some probabilities. A Markov chain forecast model is flexible in accommodating various forecast assumptions and structures. The present paper discusses the considerations and techniques in building a Markov chain forecast model at each step. Continuous state Markov chain model is analytically described. Finally, the application of the proposed Markov chain model is illustrated with reference to a set of NDVI time series data.

  17. Semi-Markov Chains and Hidden Semi-Markov Models toward Applications Their Use in Reliability and DNA Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Vlad

    2008-01-01

    Semi-Markov processes are much more general and better adapted to applications than the Markov ones because sojourn times in any state can be arbitrarily distributed, as opposed to the geometrically distributed sojourn time in the Markov case. This book concerns with the estimation of discrete-time semi-Markov and hidden semi-Markov processes

  18. zipHMMlib: a highly optimised HMM library exploiting repetitions in the input to speed up the forward algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, Andreas; Kristiansen, Martin; Pedersen, Christian N S; Mailund, Thomas

    2013-11-22

    Hidden Markov models are widely used for genome analysis as they combine ease of modelling with efficient analysis algorithms. Calculating the likelihood of a model using the forward algorithm has worst case time complexity linear in the length of the sequence and quadratic in the number of states in the model. For genome analysis, however, the length runs to millions or billions of observations, and when maximising the likelihood hundreds of evaluations are often needed. A time efficient forward algorithm is therefore a key ingredient in an efficient hidden Markov model library. We have built a software library for efficiently computing the likelihood of a hidden Markov model. The library exploits commonly occurring substrings in the input to reuse computations in the forward algorithm. In a pre-processing step our library identifies common substrings and builds a structure over the computations in the forward algorithm which can be reused. This analysis can be saved between uses of the library and is independent of concrete hidden Markov models so one preprocessing can be used to run a number of different models.Using this library, we achieve up to 78 times shorter wall-clock time for realistic whole-genome analyses with a real and reasonably complex hidden Markov model. In one particular case the analysis was performed in less than 8 minutes compared to 9.6 hours for the previously fastest library. We have implemented the preprocessing procedure and forward algorithm as a C++ library, zipHMM, with Python bindings for use in scripts. The library is available at http://birc.au.dk/software/ziphmm/.

  19. Entropy, complexity, and Markov diagrams for random walk cancer models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Hurt, Brian; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter

    2014-12-19

    The notion of entropy is used to compare the complexity associated with 12 common cancers based on metastatic tumor distribution autopsy data. We characterize power-law distributions, entropy, and Kullback-Liebler divergence associated with each primary cancer as compared with data for all cancer types aggregated. We then correlate entropy values with other measures of complexity associated with Markov chain dynamical systems models of progression. The Markov transition matrix associated with each cancer is associated with a directed graph model where nodes are anatomical locations where a metastatic tumor could develop, and edge weightings are transition probabilities of progression from site to site. The steady-state distribution corresponds to the autopsy data distribution. Entropy correlates well with the overall complexity of the reduced directed graph structure for each cancer and with a measure of systemic interconnectedness of the graph, called graph conductance. The models suggest that grouping cancers according to their entropy values, with skin, breast, kidney, and lung cancers being prototypical high entropy cancers, stomach, uterine, pancreatic and ovarian being mid-level entropy cancers, and colorectal, cervical, bladder, and prostate cancers being prototypical low entropy cancers, provides a potentially useful framework for viewing metastatic cancer in terms of predictability, complexity, and metastatic potential.

  20. Cost Effective Community Based Dementia Screening: A Markov Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Saito

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Given the dementia epidemic and the increasing cost of healthcare, there is a need to assess the economic benefit of community based dementia screening programs. Materials and Methods. Markov model simulations were generated using data obtained from a community based dementia screening program over a one-year period. The models simulated yearly costs of caring for patients based on clinical transitions beginning in pre dementia and extending for 10 years. Results. A total of 93 individuals (74 female, 19 male were screened for dementia and 12 meeting clinical criteria for either mild cognitive impairment (n=7 or dementia (n=5 were identified. Assuming early therapeutic intervention beginning during the year of dementia detection, Markov model simulations demonstrated 9.8% reduction in cost of dementia care over a ten-year simulation period, primarily through increased duration in mild stages and reduced time in more costly moderate and severe stages. Discussion. Community based dementia screening can reduce healthcare costs associated with caring for demented individuals through earlier detection and treatment, resulting in proportionately reduced time in more costly advanced stages.

  1. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  2. A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

    1996-11-01

    Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing.

  3. Descriptive and predictive evaluation of high resolution Markov chain precipitation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    A time series of tipping bucket recordings of very high temporal and volumetric resolution precipitation is modelled using Markov chain models. Both first and second‐order Markov models as well as seasonal and diurnal models are investigated and evaluated using likelihood based techniques. The fi...

  4. Entropies from Markov Models as Complexity Measures of Embedded Attractors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julián D. Arias-Londoño

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of measuring complexity from embedded attractors as a way to characterize changes in the dynamical behavior of different types of systems with a quasi-periodic behavior by observing their outputs. With the aim of measuring the stability of the trajectories of the attractor along time, this paper proposes three new estimations of entropy that are derived from a Markov model of the embedded attractor. The proposed estimators are compared with traditional nonparametric entropy measures, such as approximate entropy, sample entropy and fuzzy entropy, which only take into account the spatial dimension of the trajectory. The method proposes the use of an unsupervised algorithm to find the principal curve, which is considered as the “profile trajectory”, that will serve to adjust the Markov model. The new entropy measures are evaluated using three synthetic experiments and three datasets of physiological signals. In terms of consistency and discrimination capabilities, the results show that the proposed measures perform better than the other entropy measures used for comparison purposes.

  5. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  6. PELACAKAN DAN PENGENALAN WAJAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE EMBEDDED HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arie Wirawan Margono

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Tracking and recognizing human face becomes one of the important research subjects nowadays, where it is applicable in security system like room access, surveillance, as well as searching for person identity in police database. Because of applying in security case, it is necessary to have robust system for certain conditions such as: background influence, non-frontal face pose of male or female in different age and race. The aim of this research is to develop software which combines human face tracking using CamShift algorithm and face recognition system using Embedded Hidden Markov Models. The software uses video camera (webcam for real-time input, video AVI for dynamic input, and image file for static input. The software uses Object Oriented Programming (OOP coding style with C++ programming language, Microsoft Visual C++ 6.0® compiler, and assisted by some libraries of Intel Image Processing Library (IPL and Intel Open Source Computer Vision (OpenCV. System testing shows that object tracking based on skin complexion using CamShift algorithm comes out well, for tracking of single or even two face objects at once. Human face recognition system using Embedded Hidden Markov Models method has reach accuracy percentage of 82.76%, using 341 human faces in database that consists of 31 individuals with 11 poses and 29 human face testers. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Pelacakan dan pengenalan wajah manusia merupakan salah satu bidang yang cukup berkembang dewasa ini, dimana aplikasi dapat diterapkan dalam bidang keamanan (security system seperti ijin akses masuk ruangan, pengawasan lokasi (surveillance, maupun pencarian identitas individu pada database kepolisian. Karena diterapkan dalam kasus keamanan, dibutuhkan sistem yang handal terhadap beberapa kondisi, seperti: pengaruh latar belakang, pose wajah non-frontal terhadap pria maupun wanita dalam perbedaan usia dan ras. Tujuan penelitiam ini adalah untuk membuat perangkat lunak yang menggabungkan

  7. Stochastic model of milk homogenization process using Markov's chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Khvostov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of development of a mathematical model of the process of homogenization of dairy products is considered in the work. The theory of Markov's chains was used in the development of the mathematical model, Markov's chain with discrete states and continuous parameter for which the homogenisation pressure is taken, being the basis for the model structure. Machine realization of the model is implemented in the medium of structural modeling MathWorks Simulink™. Identification of the model parameters was carried out by minimizing the standard deviation calculated from the experimental data for each fraction of dairy products fat phase. As the set of experimental data processing results of the micrographic images of fat globules of whole milk samples distribution which were subjected to homogenization at different pressures were used. Pattern Search method was used as optimization method with the Latin Hypercube search algorithm from Global Optimization Тoolbox library. The accuracy of calculations averaged over all fractions of 0.88% (the relative share of units, the maximum relative error was 3.7% with the homogenization pressure of 30 MPa, which may be due to the very abrupt change in properties from the original milk in the particle size distribution at the beginning of the homogenization process and the lack of experimental data at homogenization pressures of below the specified value. The mathematical model proposed allows to calculate the profile of volume and mass distribution of the fat phase (fat globules in the product, depending on the homogenization pressure and can be used in the laboratory and research of dairy products composition, as well as in the calculation, design and modeling of the process equipment of the dairy industry enterprises.

  8. Perspective: Markov models for long-timescale biomolecular dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwantes, C. R.; McGibbon, R. T. [Department of Chemistry, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Pande, V. S., E-mail: pande@stanford.edu [Department of Chemistry, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Structural Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Biophysics Program, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States)

    2014-09-07

    Molecular dynamics simulations have the potential to provide atomic-level detail and insight to important questions in chemical physics that cannot be observed in typical experiments. However, simply generating a long trajectory is insufficient, as researchers must be able to transform the data in a simulation trajectory into specific scientific insights. Although this analysis step has often been taken for granted, it deserves further attention as large-scale simulations become increasingly routine. In this perspective, we discuss the application of Markov models to the analysis of large-scale biomolecular simulations. We draw attention to recent improvements in the construction of these models as well as several important open issues. In addition, we highlight recent theoretical advances that pave the way for a new generation of models of molecular kinetics.

  9. Dimensional Reduction for the General Markov Model on Phylogenetic Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jeremy G

    2017-03-01

    We present a method of dimensional reduction for the general Markov model of sequence evolution on a phylogenetic tree. We show that taking certain linear combinations of the associated random variables (site pattern counts) reduces the dimensionality of the model from exponential in the number of extant taxa, to quadratic in the number of taxa, while retaining the ability to statistically identify phylogenetic divergence events. A key feature is the identification of an invariant subspace which depends only bilinearly on the model parameters, in contrast to the usual multi-linear dependence in the full space. We discuss potential applications including the computation of split (edge) weights on phylogenetic trees from observed sequence data.

  10. Perspective: Markov models for long-timescale biomolecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwantes, C. R.; McGibbon, R. T.; Pande, V. S.

    2014-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations have the potential to provide atomic-level detail and insight to important questions in chemical physics that cannot be observed in typical experiments. However, simply generating a long trajectory is insufficient, as researchers must be able to transform the data in a simulation trajectory into specific scientific insights. Although this analysis step has often been taken for granted, it deserves further attention as large-scale simulations become increasingly routine. In this perspective, we discuss the application of Markov models to the analysis of large-scale biomolecular simulations. We draw attention to recent improvements in the construction of these models as well as several important open issues. In addition, we highlight recent theoretical advances that pave the way for a new generation of models of molecular kinetics

  11. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiq, N.

    2015-01-01

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  12. An HMM-based comparative genomic framework for detecting introgression in eukaryotes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin J Liu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available One outcome of interspecific hybridization and subsequent effects of evolutionary forces is introgression, which is the integration of genetic material from one species into the genome of an individual in another species. The evolution of several groups of eukaryotic species has involved hybridization, and cases of adaptation through introgression have been already established. In this work, we report on PhyloNet-HMM-a new comparative genomic framework for detecting introgression in genomes. PhyloNet-HMM combines phylogenetic networks with hidden Markov models (HMMs to simultaneously capture the (potentially reticulate evolutionary history of the genomes and dependencies within genomes. A novel aspect of our work is that it also accounts for incomplete lineage sorting and dependence across loci. Application of our model to variation data from chromosome 7 in the mouse (Mus musculus domesticus genome detected a recently reported adaptive introgression event involving the rodent poison resistance gene Vkorc1, in addition to other newly detected introgressed genomic regions. Based on our analysis, it is estimated that about 9% of all sites within chromosome 7 are of introgressive origin (these cover about 13 Mbp of chromosome 7, and over 300 genes. Further, our model detected no introgression in a negative control data set. We also found that our model accurately detected introgression and other evolutionary processes from synthetic data sets simulated under the coalescent model with recombination, isolation, and migration. Our work provides a powerful framework for systematic analysis of introgression while simultaneously accounting for dependence across sites, point mutations, recombination, and ancestral polymorphism.

  13. Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Kirkwood, James R

    2015-01-01

    Review of ProbabilityShort HistoryReview of Basic Probability DefinitionsSome Common Probability DistributionsProperties of a Probability DistributionProperties of the Expected ValueExpected Value of a Random Variable with Common DistributionsGenerating FunctionsMoment Generating FunctionsExercisesDiscrete-Time, Finite-State Markov ChainsIntroductionNotationTransition MatricesDirected Graphs: Examples of Markov ChainsRandom Walk with Reflecting BoundariesGambler’s RuinEhrenfest ModelCentral Problem of Markov ChainsCondition to Ensure a Unique Equilibrium StateFinding the Equilibrium StateTransient and Recurrent StatesIndicator FunctionsPerron-Frobenius TheoremAbsorbing Markov ChainsMean First Passage TimeMean Recurrence Time and the Equilibrium StateFundamental Matrix for Regular Markov ChainsDividing a Markov Chain into Equivalence ClassesPeriodic Markov ChainsReducible Markov ChainsSummaryExercisesDiscrete-Time, Infinite-State Markov ChainsRenewal ProcessesDelayed Renewal ProcessesEquilibrium State f...

  14. A method for identifying gas-liquid two-phase flow patterns on the basis of wavelet packet multi-scale information entropy and HMM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Yunlong; Zhang Xueqing; Gao Yunpeng; Cheng Yue

    2009-01-01

    For studying flow regimes of gas/liquid two-phase in a vertical upward pipe, the conductance fluctuation information of four typical flow regimes was collected by a measuring the system with self-made multiple conductivity probes. Owing to the non-stationarity of conductance fluctuation signals of gas-liquid two-phase flow, a kind of' flow regime identification method based on wavelet packet Multi-scale Information Entropy and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) was put forward. First of all, the collected conductance fluctuation signals were decomposed into eight different frequency bands signals. Secondly, the wavelet packet multi-scale information entropy of different frequency bands signals were regarded as the input characteristic vectors of all states HMM which had been trained. In the end the regime identification of' the gas-liquid two-phase flow could be performed. The study showed that the method that HMM was applied to identify the flow regime was superior to the one that BP neural network was used, and the results proved that the method was efficient and feasible. (authors)

  15. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  16. Algorithms for a parallel implementation of Hidden Markov Models with a small state space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper; Sand, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Two of the most important algorithms for Hidden Markov Models are the forward and the Viterbi algorithms. We show how formulating these using linear algebra naturally lends itself to parallelization. Although the obtained algorithms are slow for Hidden Markov Models with large state spaces...

  17. Fast-slow asymptotics for a Markov chain model of fast sodium current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starý, Tomáš; Biktashev, Vadim N.

    2017-09-01

    We explore the feasibility of using fast-slow asymptotics to eliminate the computational stiffness of discrete-state, continuous-time deterministic Markov chain models of ionic channels underlying cardiac excitability. We focus on a Markov chain model of fast sodium current, and investigate its asymptotic behaviour with respect to small parameters identified in different ways.

  18. The Consensus String Problem and the Complexity of Comparing Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyngsø, Rune Bang; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm

    2002-01-01

    The basic theory of hidden Markov models was developed and applied to problems in speech recognition in the late 1960s, and has since then been applied to numerous problems, e.g. biological sequence analysis. Most applications of hidden Markov models are based on efficient algorithms for computing...... the probability of generating a given string, or computing the most likely path generating a given string. In this paper we consider the problem of computing the most likely string, or consensus string, generated by a given model, and its implications on the complexity of comparing hidden Markov models. We show...... that computing the consensus string, and approximating its probability within any constant factor, is NP-hard, and that the same holds for the closely related labeling problem for class hidden Markov models. Furthermore, we establish the NP-hardness of comparing two hidden Markov models under the L∞- and L1...

  19. Data-driven Markov models and their application in the evaluation of adverse events in radiotherapy

    CERN Document Server

    Abler, Daniel; Davies, Jim; Dosanjh, Manjit; Jena, Raj; Kirkby, Norman; Peach, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making processes in medicine rely increasingly on modelling and simulation techniques; they are especially useful when combining evidence from multiple sources. Markov models are frequently used to synthesize the available evidence for such simulation studies, by describing disease and treatment progress, as well as associated factors such as the treatment's effects on a patient's life and the costs to society. When the same decision problem is investigated by multiple stakeholders, differing modelling assumptions are often applied, making synthesis and interpretation of the results difficult. This paper proposes a standardized approach towards the creation of Markov models. It introduces the notion of ‘general Markov models’, providing a common definition of the Markov models that underlie many similar decision problems, and develops a language for their specification. We demonstrate the application of this language by developing a general Markov model for adverse event analysis in radiotherapy ...

  20. Automatic creation of Markov models for reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Haitao; Yang Xianhui

    2008-01-01

    After the release of new international functional safety standards like IEC 61508, people care more for the safety and availability of safety instrumented systems. Markov analysis is a powerful and flexible technique to assess the reliability measurements of safety instrumented systems, but it is fallible and time-consuming to create Markov models manually. This paper presents a new technique to automatically create Markov models for reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems. Many safety related factors, such as failure modes, self-diagnostic, restorations, common cause and voting, are included in Markov models. A framework is generated first based on voting, failure modes and self-diagnostic. Then, repairs and common-cause failures are incorporated into the framework to build a complete Markov model. Eventual simplification of Markov models can be done by state merging. Examples given in this paper show how explosively the size of Markov model increases as the system becomes a little more complicated as well as the advancement of automatic creation of Markov models

  1. Engineering of Algorithms for Hidden Markov models and Tree Distances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sand, Andreas

    Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary scientific field that combines biology with mathematics, statistics and computer science in an effort to develop computational methods for handling, analyzing and learning from biological data. In the recent decades, the amount of available biological data has...... speed up all the classical algorithms for analyses and training of hidden Markov models. And I show how two particularly important algorithms, the forward algorithm and the Viterbi algorithm, can be accelerated through a reformulation of the algorithms and a somewhat more complicated parallelization...... contribution to the theoretically fastest set of algorithms presently available to compute two closely related measures of tree distance, the triplet distance and the quartet distance. And I further demonstrate that they are also the fastest algorithms in almost all cases when tested in practice....

  2. Motion Imitation and Recognition using Parametric Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herzog, Dennis; Ude, Ales; Krüger, Volker

    2008-01-01

    ) are important. Only together they convey the whole meaning of an action. Similarly, to imitate a movement, the robot needs to select the proper action and parameterize it, e.g., by the relative position of the object that needs to be grasped. We propose to utilize parametric hidden Markov models (PHMMs), which...... extend the classical HMMs by introducing a joint parameterization of the observation densities, to simultaneously solve the problems of action recognition, parameterization of the observed actions, and action synthesis. The proposed approach was fully implemented on a humanoid robot HOAP-3. To evaluate...... the approach, we focused on reaching and pointing actions. Even though the movements are very similar in appearance, our approach is able to distinguish the two movement types and discover the parameterization, and is thus enabling both, action recognition and action synthesis. Through parameterization we...

  3. Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Liu, P.; Beerli, P.; Lu, D.; Hill, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used to evaluate model probability for quantifying model uncertainty. In a general procedure, MCMC simulations are first conducted for each individual model, and MCMC parameter samples are then used to approximate marginal likelihood of the model by calculating the geometric mean of the joint likelihood of the model and its parameters. It has been found the method of evaluating geometric mean suffers from the numerical problem of low convergence rate. A simple test case shows that even millions of MCMC samples are insufficient to yield accurate estimation of the marginal likelihood. To resolve this problem, a thermodynamic method is used to have multiple MCMC runs with different values of a heating coefficient between zero and one. When the heating coefficient is zero, the MCMC run is equivalent to a random walk MC in the prior parameter space; when the heating coefficient is one, the MCMC run is the conventional one. For a simple case with analytical form of the marginal likelihood, the thermodynamic method yields more accurate estimate than the method of using geometric mean. This is also demonstrated for a case of groundwater modeling with consideration of four alternative models postulated based on different conceptualization of a confining layer. This groundwater example shows that model probabilities estimated using the thermodynamic method are more reasonable than those obtained using the geometric method. The thermodynamic method is general, and can be used for a wide range of environmental problem for model uncertainty quantification.

  4. Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Evangelista Régis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.

  5. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces ...

  6. Logics and Models for Stochastic Analysis Beyond Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Kebin

    , because of the generality of ME distributions, we have to leave the world of Markov chains. To support ME distributions with multiple exits, we introduce a multi-exits ME distribution together with a process algebra MEME to express the systems having the semantics as Markov renewal processes with ME...

  7. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  8. A hidden markov model derived structural alphabet for proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camproux, A C; Gautier, R; Tufféry, P

    2004-06-04

    Understanding and predicting protein structures depends on the complexity and the accuracy of the models used to represent them. We have set up a hidden Markov model that discretizes protein backbone conformation as series of overlapping fragments (states) of four residues length. This approach learns simultaneously the geometry of the states and their connections. We obtain, using a statistical criterion, an optimal systematic decomposition of the conformational variability of the protein peptidic chain in 27 states with strong connection logic. This result is stable over different protein sets. Our model fits well the previous knowledge related to protein architecture organisation and seems able to grab some subtle details of protein organisation, such as helix sub-level organisation schemes. Taking into account the dependence between the states results in a description of local protein structure of low complexity. On an average, the model makes use of only 8.3 states among 27 to describe each position of a protein structure. Although we use short fragments, the learning process on entire protein conformations captures the logic of the assembly on a larger scale. Using such a model, the structure of proteins can be reconstructed with an average accuracy close to 1.1A root-mean-square deviation and for a complexity of only 3. Finally, we also observe that sequence specificity increases with the number of states of the structural alphabet. Such models can constitute a very relevant approach to the analysis of protein architecture in particular for protein structure prediction.

  9. Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model From Breakthrough Curve Data Alone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Thomas; Fakhari, Abbas; Miller, Savannah; Singha, Kamini; Bolster, Diogo

    2017-12-01

    The spatial Markov model (SMM) is an upscaled Lagrangian model that effectively captures anomalous transport across a diverse range of hydrologic systems. The distinct feature of the SMM relative to other random walk models is that successive steps are correlated. To date, with some notable exceptions, the model has primarily been applied to data from high-resolution numerical simulations and correlation effects have been measured from simulated particle trajectories. In real systems such knowledge is practically unattainable and the best one might hope for is breakthrough curves (BTCs) at successive downstream locations. We introduce a novel methodology to quantify velocity correlation from BTC data alone. By discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and developing an inverse model, we estimate velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where detailed Lagrangian velocity statistics are unavailable. The proposed methodology is applied to two synthetic numerical problems, where we measure all details and thus test the veracity of the approach by comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Our results suggest that our estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and using the SMM with this estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Our methodology naturally allows for estimates of uncertainty by calculating lower and upper bounds of velocity correlation, enabling prediction of a range of BTCs. The measured BTCs fall within the range of predicted BTCs. This novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone is quite parsimonious, thereby widening the SMM's practical applicability.

  10. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  11. Weighted-indexed semi-Markov models for modeling financial returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D’Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains for studying the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted-indexed semi-Markov chain model. We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the model is able to reproduce important stylized facts of financial time series such as the first-passage-time distributions and the persistence of volatility. The model is applied to data from the Italian and German stock markets from 1 January 2007 until the end of December 2010. (paper)

  12. Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Predictive Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cartella

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Realistic predictive maintenance approaches are essential for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of industrial machines. In this work, we propose Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs with (i no constraints on the state duration density function and (ii being applied to continuous or discrete observation. To deal with such a type of HSMM, we also propose modifications to the learning, inference, and prediction algorithms. Finally, automatic model selection has been made possible using the Akaike Information Criterion. This paper describes the theoretical formalization of the model as well as several experiments performed on simulated and real data with the aim of methodology validation. In all performed experiments, the model is able to correctly estimate the current state and to effectively predict the time to a predefined event with a low overall average absolute error. As a consequence, its applicability to real world settings can be beneficial, especially where in real time the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL of the machine is calculated.

  13. Spectral analysis and markov switching model of Indonesia business cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajar, Muhammad; Darwis, Sutawanir; Darmawan, Gumgum

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to investigate the Indonesia business cycle encompassing the determination of smoothing parameter (λ) on Hodrick-Prescott filter. Subsequently, the components of the filter output cycles were analyzed using a spectral method useful to know its characteristics, and Markov switching regime modeling is made to forecast the probability recession and expansion regimes. The data used in the study is real GDP (1983Q1 - 2016Q2). The results of the study are: a) Hodrick-Prescott filter on real GDP of Indonesia to be optimal when the value of the smoothing parameter is 988.474, b) Indonesia business cycle has amplitude varies between±0.0071 to±0.01024, and the duration is between 4 to 22 quarters, c) the business cycle can be modelled by MSIV-AR (2) but regime periodization is generated this model not perfect exactly with real regime periodzation, and d) Based on the model MSIV-AR (2) obtained long-term probabilities in the expansion regime: 0.4858 and in the recession regime: 0.5142.

  14. Irreversible Markov chains in spin models: Topological excitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Ze; Krauth, Werner

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the convergence of the irreversible event-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for continuous spin models in the presence of topological excitations. In the two-dimensional XY model, we show that the local nature of the Markov-chain dynamics leads to slow decay of vortex-antivortex correlations while spin waves decorrelate very quickly. Using a Fréchet description of the maximum vortex-antivortex distance, we quantify the contributions of topological excitations to the equilibrium correlations, and show that they vary from a dynamical critical exponent z∼ 2 at the critical temperature to z∼ 0 in the limit of zero temperature. We confirm the event-chain algorithm's fast relaxation (corresponding to z = 0) of spin waves in the harmonic approximation to the XY model. Mixing times (describing the approach towards equilibrium from the least favorable initial state) however remain much larger than equilibrium correlation times at low temperatures. We also describe the respective influence of topological monopole-antimonopole excitations and of spin waves on the event-chain dynamics in the three-dimensional Heisenberg model.

  15. A male-specific QTL for social interaction behavior in mice mapped with automated pattern detection by a hidden Markov model incorporated into newly developed freeware.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arakawa, Toshiya; Tanave, Akira; Ikeuchi, Shiho; Takahashi, Aki; Kakihara, Satoshi; Kimura, Shingo; Sugimoto, Hiroki; Asada, Nobuhiko; Shiroishi, Toshihiko; Tomihara, Kazuya; Tsuchiya, Takashi; Koide, Tsuyoshi

    2014-08-30

    Owing to their complex nature, social interaction tests normally require the observation of video data by a human researcher, and thus are difficult to use in large-scale studies. We previously established a statistical method, a hidden Markov model (HMM), which enables the differentiation of two social states ("interaction" and "indifference"), and three social states ("sniffing", "following", and "indifference"), automatically in silico. Here, we developed freeware called DuoMouse for the rapid evaluation of social interaction behavior. This software incorporates five steps: (1) settings, (2) video recording, (3) tracking from the video data, (4) HMM analysis, and (5) visualization of the results. Using DuoMouse, we mapped a genetic locus related to social interaction. We previously reported that a consomic strain, B6-Chr6C(MSM), with its chromosome 6 substituted for one from MSM/Ms, showed more social interaction than C57BL/6 (B6). We made four subconsomic strains, C3, C5, C6, and C7, each of which has a shorter segment of chromosome 6 derived from B6-Chr6C, and conducted social interaction tests on these strains. DuoMouse indicated that C6, but not C3, C5, and C7, showed higher interaction, sniffing, and following than B6, specifically in males. The data obtained by human observation showed high concordance to those from DuoMouse. The results indicated that the MSM-derived chromosomal region present in C6-but not in C3, C5, and C7-associated with increased social behavior. This method to analyze social interaction will aid primary screening for difference in social behavior in mice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Hidden Markov model analysis reveals the advantage of analytic eye movement patterns in face recognition across cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuk, Tim; Crookes, Kate; Hayward, William G; Chan, Antoni B; Hsiao, Janet H

    2017-12-01

    It remains controversial whether culture modulates eye movement behavior in face recognition. Inconsistent results have been reported regarding whether cultural differences in eye movement patterns exist, whether these differences affect recognition performance, and whether participants use similar eye movement patterns when viewing faces from different ethnicities. These inconsistencies may be due to substantial individual differences in eye movement patterns within a cultural group. Here we addressed this issue by conducting individual-level eye movement data analysis using hidden Markov models (HMMs). Each individual's eye movements were modeled with an HMM. We clustered the individual HMMs according to their similarities and discovered three common patterns in both Asian and Caucasian participants: holistic (looking mostly at the face center), left-eye-biased analytic (looking mostly at the two individual eyes in addition to the face center with a slight bias to the left eye), and right-eye-based analytic (looking mostly at the right eye in addition to the face center). The frequency of participants adopting the three patterns did not differ significantly between Asians and Caucasians, suggesting little modulation from culture. Significantly more participants (75%) showed similar eye movement patterns when viewing own- and other-race faces than different patterns. Most importantly, participants with left-eye-biased analytic patterns performed significantly better than those using either holistic or right-eye-biased analytic patterns. These results suggest that active retrieval of facial feature information through an analytic eye movement pattern may be optimal for face recognition regardless of culture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Markov Chain: A Predictive Model for Manpower Planning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, Recruitment, Promotion, .... movement of the workforce in Jordan productivity .... Planning periods, with T being the horizon, the value of t represents a session.

  18. Markov chain: a predictive model for manpower planning | Ezugwu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In respect of organizational management, numerous previous studies have ... and to forecast the academic staff structure of the university in the next five years. ... Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, ...

  19. [Application of Markov model in post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Su, Xia; Sun, Wentao; Xie, Yanming; Wang, Yongyan

    2011-10-01

    In post-marketing study of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), pharmacoeconomic evaluation has an important applied significance. However, the economic literatures of TCM have been unable to fully and accurately reflect the unique overall outcomes of treatment with TCM. For the special nature of TCM itself, we recommend that Markov model could be introduced into post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation of TCM, and also explore the feasibility of model application. Markov model can extrapolate the study time horizon, suit with effectiveness indicators of TCM, and provide measurable comprehensive outcome. In addition, Markov model can promote the development of TCM quality of life scale and the methodology of post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation.

  20. Cluster-Based Adaptation Using Density Forest for HMM Phone Recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abou-Zleikha, Mohamed; Tan, Zheng-Hua; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2014-01-01

    The dissimilarity between the training and test data in speech recognition systems is known to have a considerable effect on the recognition accuracy. To solve this problem, we use density forest to cluster the data and use maximum a posteriori (MAP) method to build a cluster-based adapted Gaussian...... mixture models (GMMs) in HMM speech recognition. Specifically, a set of bagged versions of the training data for each state in the HMM is generated, and each of these versions is used to generate one GMM and one tree in the density forest. Thereafter, an acoustic model forest is built by replacing...... the data of each leaf (cluster) in each tree with the corresponding GMM adapted by the leaf data using the MAP method. The results show that the proposed approach achieves 3:8% (absolute) lower phone error rate compared with the standard HMM/GMM and 0:8% (absolute) lower PER compared with bagged HMM/GMM....

  1. Computing characterizations of drugs for ion channels and receptors using Markov models

    CERN Document Server

    Tveito, Aslak

    2016-01-01

    Flow of ions through voltage gated channels can be represented theoretically using stochastic differential equations where the gating mechanism is represented by a Markov model. The flow through a channel can be manipulated using various drugs, and the effect of a given drug can be reflected by changing the Markov model. These lecture notes provide an accessible introduction to the mathematical methods needed to deal with these models. They emphasize the use of numerical methods and provide sufficient details for the reader to implement the models and thereby study the effect of various drugs. Examples in the text include stochastic calcium release from internal storage systems in cells, as well as stochastic models of the transmembrane potential. Well known Markov models are studied and a systematic approach to including the effect of mutations is presented. Lastly, the book shows how to derive the optimal properties of a theoretical model of a drug for a given mutation defined in terms of a Markov model.

  2. Constructing Markov State Models to elucidate the functional conformational changes of complex biomolecules

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Wei; Cao, Siqin; Zhu, Lizhe; Huang, Xuhui

    2017-01-01

    bioengineering applications and rational drug design. Constructing Markov State Models (MSMs) based on large-scale molecular dynamics simulations has emerged as a powerful approach to model functional conformational changes of the biomolecular system

  3. Simulating reservoir lithologies by an actively conditioned Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Runhai; Luthi, Stefan M.; Gisolf, Dries

    2018-06-01

    The coupled Markov chain model can be used to simulate reservoir lithologies between wells, by conditioning them on the observed data in the cored wells. However, with this method, only the state at the same depth as the current cell is going to be used for conditioning, which may be a problem if the geological layers are dipping. This will cause the simulated lithological layers to be broken or to become discontinuous across the reservoir. In order to address this problem, an actively conditioned process is proposed here, in which a tolerance angle is predefined. The states contained in the region constrained by the tolerance angle will be employed for conditioning in the horizontal chain first, after which a coupling concept with the vertical chain is implemented. In order to use the same horizontal transition matrix for different future states, the tolerance angle has to be small. This allows the method to work in reservoirs without complex structures caused by depositional processes or tectonic deformations. Directional artefacts in the modeling process are avoided through a careful choice of the simulation path. The tolerance angle and dipping direction of the strata can be obtained from a correlation between wells, or from seismic data, which are available in most hydrocarbon reservoirs, either by interpretation or by inversion that can also assist the construction of a horizontal probability matrix.

  4. The Consensus String Problem and the Complexity of Comparing Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyngsø, Rune Bang; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm

    2002-01-01

    The basic theory of hidden Markov models was developed and applied to problems in speech recognition in the late 1960s, and has since then been applied to numerous problems, e.g. biological sequence analysis. Most applications of hidden Markov models are based on efficient algorithms for computing......-norms. We discuss the applicability of the technique used for proving the hardness of comparing two hidden Markov models under the L1-norm to other measures of distance between probability distributions. In particular, we show that it cannot be used for proving NP-hardness of determining the Kullback...

  5. Is having similar eye movement patterns during face learning and recognition beneficial for recognition performance? Evidence from hidden Markov modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuk, Tim; Chan, Antoni B; Hsiao, Janet H

    2017-12-01

    The hidden Markov model (HMM)-based approach for eye movement analysis is able to reflect individual differences in both spatial and temporal aspects of eye movements. Here we used this approach to understand the relationship between eye movements during face learning and recognition, and its association with recognition performance. We discovered holistic (i.e., mainly looking at the face center) and analytic (i.e., specifically looking at the two eyes in addition to the face center) patterns during both learning and recognition. Although for both learning and recognition, participants who adopted analytic patterns had better recognition performance than those with holistic patterns, a significant positive correlation between the likelihood of participants' patterns being classified as analytic and their recognition performance was only observed during recognition. Significantly more participants adopted holistic patterns during learning than recognition. Interestingly, about 40% of the participants used different patterns between learning and recognition, and among them 90% switched their patterns from holistic at learning to analytic at recognition. In contrast to the scan path theory, which posits that eye movements during learning have to be recapitulated during recognition for the recognition to be successful, participants who used the same or different patterns during learning and recognition did not differ in recognition performance. The similarity between their learning and recognition eye movement patterns also did not correlate with their recognition performance. These findings suggested that perceptuomotor memory elicited by eye movement patterns during learning does not play an important role in recognition. In contrast, the retrieval of diagnostic information for recognition, such as the eyes for face recognition, is a better predictor for recognition performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

    2014-01-01

    State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

  7. Joint modeling of ChIP-seq data via a Markov random field model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bao, Yanchun; Vinciotti, Veronica; Wit, Ernst; 't Hoen, Peter A C

    Chromatin ImmunoPrecipitation-sequencing (ChIP-seq) experiments have now become routine in biology for the detection of protein-binding sites. In this paper, we present a Markov random field model for the joint analysis of multiple ChIP-seq experiments. The proposed model naturally accounts for

  8. Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.

    2017-06-01

    The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.

  9. Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model from Breakthrough Curve Data Alone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, T.; Bolster, D.; Fakhari, A.; Miller, S.; Singha, K.

    2017-12-01

    The spatial Markov model (SMM) uses a correlated random walk and has been shown to effectively capture anomalous transport in porous media systems; in the SMM, particles' future trajectories are correlated to their current velocity. It is common practice to use a priori Lagrangian velocity statistics obtained from high resolution simulations to determine a distribution of transition probabilities (correlation) between velocity classes that govern predicted transport behavior; however, this approach is computationally cumbersome. Here, we introduce a methodology to quantify velocity correlation from Breakthrough (BTC) curve data alone; discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and reverse engineering the rules of the SMM allows for prediction of velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where Lagrangian velocity statistics are not available. The introduced methodology is applied to estimate velocity correlation from BTCs measured in high resolution simulations, thus allowing for a comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Results show 1) estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and 2) using the SMM with estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Additionally, we include uncertainty measurements by calculating lower and upper estimates of velocity correlation, which allow for prediction of a range of BTCs. The simulated BTCs fall in the range of predicted BTCs. This research proposes a novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone, thereby reducing the SMM's computational costs and widening its applicability.

  10. Investigation of a Markov Model for Computer System Security Threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey A. A. Magazev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a model for computer system security threats formulated in terms of Markov processes is investigated. In the framework of this model the functioning of the computer system is considered as a sequence of failures and recovery actions which appear as results of information security threats acting on the system. We provide a detailed description of the model: the explicit analytical formulas for the probabilities of computer system states at any arbitrary moment of time are derived, some limiting cases are discussed, and the long-run dynamics of the system is analysed. The dependence of the security state probability (i.e. the state for which threats are absent on the probabilities of threats is separately investigated. In particular, it is shown that this dependence is qualitatively different for odd and even moments of time. For instance, in the case of one threat the security state probability demonstrates non-monotonic dependence on the probability of threat at even moments of time; this function admits at least one local minimum in its domain of definition. It is believed that the mentioned feature is important because it allows to locate the most dangerous areas of threats where the security state probability can be lower then the permissible level. Finally, we introduce an important characteristic of the model, called the relaxation time, by means of which we construct the permitting domain of the security parameters. Also the prospects of the received results application to the problem of finding the optimal values of the security parameters is discussed.

  11. Data-driven Markov models and their application in the evaluation of adverse events in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abler, Daniel; Kanellopoulos, Vassiliki; Dosanjh, Manjit; Davies, Jim; Peach, Ken; Jena, Raj; Kirkby, Norman

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making processes in medicine rely increasingly on modelling and simulation techniques; they are especially useful when combining evidence from multiple sources. Markov models are frequently used to synthesize the available evidence for such simulation studies, by describing disease and treatment progress, as well as associated factors such as the treatment's effects on a patient's life and the costs to society. When the same decision problem is investigated by multiple stakeholders, differing modelling assumptions are often applied, making synthesis and interpretation of the results difficult. This paper proposes a standardized approach towards the creation of Markov models. It introduces the notion of 'general Markov models', providing a common definition of the Markov models that underlie many similar decision problems, and develops a language for their specification. We demonstrate the application of this language by developing a general Markov model for adverse event analysis in radiotherapy and argue that the proposed method can automate the creation of Markov models from existing data. The approach has the potential to support the radiotherapy community in conducting systematic analyses involving predictive modelling of existing and upcoming radiotherapy data. We expect it to facilitate the application of modelling techniques in medical decision problems beyond the field of radiotherapy, and to improve the comparability of their results. (author)

  12. On the representability of complete genomes by multiple competing finite-context (Markov models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armando J Pinho

    Full Text Available A finite-context (Markov model of order k yields the probability distribution of the next symbol in a sequence of symbols, given the recent past up to depth k. Markov modeling has long been applied to DNA sequences, for example to find gene-coding regions. With the first studies came the discovery that DNA sequences are non-stationary: distinct regions require distinct model orders. Since then, Markov and hidden Markov models have been extensively used to describe the gene structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes. However, to our knowledge, a comprehensive study about the potential of Markov models to describe complete genomes is still lacking. We address this gap in this paper. Our approach relies on (i multiple competing Markov models of different orders (ii careful programming techniques that allow orders as large as sixteen (iii adequate inverted repeat handling (iv probability estimates suited to the wide range of context depths used. To measure how well a model fits the data at a particular position in the sequence we use the negative logarithm of the probability estimate at that position. The measure yields information profiles of the sequence, which are of independent interest. The average over the entire sequence, which amounts to the average number of bits per base needed to describe the sequence, is used as a global performance measure. Our main conclusion is that, from the probabilistic or information theoretic point of view and according to this performance measure, multiple competing Markov models explain entire genomes almost as well or even better than state-of-the-art DNA compression methods, such as XM, which rely on very different statistical models. This is surprising, because Markov models are local (short-range, contrasting with the statistical models underlying other methods, where the extensive data repetitions in DNA sequences is explored, and therefore have a non-local character.

  13. Data-driven Markov models and their application in the evaluation of adverse events in radiotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abler, Daniel; Kanellopoulos, Vassiliki; Davies, Jim; Dosanjh, Manjit; Jena, Raj; Kirkby, Norman; Peach, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making processes in medicine rely increasingly on modelling and simulation techniques; they are especially useful when combining evidence from multiple sources. Markov models are frequently used to synthesize the available evidence for such simulation studies, by describing disease and treatment progress, as well as associated factors such as the treatment's effects on a patient's life and the costs to society. When the same decision problem is investigated by multiple stakeholders, differing modelling assumptions are often applied, making synthesis and interpretation of the results difficult. This paper proposes a standardized approach towards the creation of Markov models. It introduces the notion of ‘general Markov models’, providing a common definition of the Markov models that underlie many similar decision problems, and develops a language for their specification. We demonstrate the application of this language by developing a general Markov model for adverse event analysis in radiotherapy and argue that the proposed method can automate the creation of Markov models from existing data. The approach has the potential to support the radiotherapy community in conducting systematic analyses involving predictive modelling of existing and upcoming radiotherapy data. We expect it to facilitate the application of modelling techniques in medical decision problems beyond the field of radiotherapy, and to improve the comparability of their results. PMID:23824126

  14. Technical manual for basic version of the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

  15. User’s manual for basic version of MCnest Markov chain nest productivity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

  16. Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modelling with a semi-Markov approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guglielmo D’Amico

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We propose a statistical approach to modelling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modelling the tornado intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornado intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornado intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornado occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application, we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things.

  17. Social security as Markov equilibrium in OLG models: A note

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gonzalez Eiras, Martin

    2011-01-01

    I refine and extend the Markov perfect equilibrium of the social security policy game in Forni (2005) for the special case of logarithmic utility. Under the restriction that the policy function be continuous, instead of differentiable, the equilibrium is globally well defined and its dynamics...

  18. Comparison of Langevin and Markov channel noise models for neuronal signal generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengupta, B; Laughlin, S B; Niven, J E

    2010-01-01

    The stochastic opening and closing of voltage-gated ion channels produce noise in neurons. The effect of this noise on the neuronal performance has been modeled using either an approximate or Langevin model based on stochastic differential equations or an exact model based on a Markov process model of channel gating. Yet whether the Langevin model accurately reproduces the channel noise produced by the Markov model remains unclear. Here we present a comparison between Langevin and Markov models of channel noise in neurons using single compartment Hodgkin-Huxley models containing either Na+ and K+, or only K+ voltage-gated ion channels. The performance of the Langevin and Markov models was quantified over a range of stimulus statistics, membrane areas, and channel numbers. We find that in comparison to the Markov model, the Langevin model underestimates the noise contributed by voltage-gated ion channels, overestimating information rates for both spiking and nonspiking membranes. Even with increasing numbers of channels, the difference between the two models persists. This suggests that the Langevin model may not be suitable for accurately simulating channel noise in neurons, even in simulations with large numbers of ion channels.

  19. A Depth Video-based Human Detection and Activity Recognition using Multi-features and Embedded Hidden Markov Models for Health Care Monitoring Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Jalal

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increase in number of elderly people who are living independently needs especial care in the form of healthcare monitoring systems. Recent advancements in depth video technologies have made human activity recognition (HAR realizable for elderly healthcare applications. In this paper, a depth video-based novel method for HAR is presented using robust multi-features and embedded Hidden Markov Models (HMMs to recognize daily life activities of elderly people living alone in indoor environment such as smart homes. In the proposed HAR framework, initially, depth maps are analyzed by temporal motion identification method to segment human silhouettes from noisy background and compute depth silhouette area for each activity to track human movements in a scene. Several representative features, including invariant, multi-view differentiation and spatiotemporal body joints features were fused together to explore gradient orientation change, intensity differentiation, temporal variation and local motion of specific body parts. Then, these features are processed by the dynamics of their respective class and learned, modeled, trained and recognized with specific embedded HMM having active feature values. Furthermore, we construct a new online human activity dataset by a depth sensor to evaluate the proposed features. Our experiments on three depth datasets demonstrated that the proposed multi-features are efficient and robust over the state of the art features for human action and activity recognition.

  20. Modeling of IP scanning activities with Hidden Markov Models: Darknet case study

    OpenAIRE

    De Santis , Giulia; Lahmadi , Abdelkader; Francois , Jerome; Festor , Olivier

    2016-01-01

    International audience; We propose a methodology based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model scanning activities monitored by a darknet. The HMMs of scanning activities are built on the basis of the number of scanned IP addresses within a time window and fitted using mixtures of Poisson distributions. Our methodology is applied on real data traces collected from a darknet and generated by two large scale scanners, ZMap and Shodan. We demonstrated that the built models are able to characteri...

  1. Hidden Markov Model Application to Transfer The Trader Online Forex Brokers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farida Suharleni

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model is elaboration of Markov chain, which is applicable to cases that can’t directly observe. In this research, Hidden Markov Model is used to know trader’s transition to broker forex online. In Hidden Markov Model, observed state is observable part and hidden state is hidden part. Hidden Markov Model allows modeling system that contains interrelated observed state and hidden state. As observed state in trader’s transition to broker forex online is category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4, category 5 by condition of every broker forex online, whereas as hidden state is broker forex online Marketiva, Masterforex, Instaforex, FBS and Others. First step on application of Hidden Markov Model in this research is making construction model by making a probability of transition matrix (A from every broker forex online. Next step is making a probability of observation matrix (B by making conditional probability of five categories, that is category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4, category 5 by condition of every broker forex online and also need to determine an initial state probability (π from every broker forex online. The last step is using Viterbi algorithm to find hidden state sequences that is broker forex online sequences which is the most possible based on model and observed state that is the five categories. Application of Hidden Markov Model is done by making program with Viterbi algorithm using Delphi 7.0 software with observed state based on simulation data. Example: By the number of observation T = 5 and observed state sequences O = (2,4,3,5,1 is found hidden state sequences which the most possible with observed state O as following : where X1 = FBS, X2 = Masterforex, X3 = Marketiva, X4 = Others, and X5 = Instaforex.

  2. MARKOV CHAIN MODELING OF PERFORMANCE DEGRADATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM

    OpenAIRE

    E. Suresh Kumar; Asis Sarkar; Dhiren kumar Behera

    2012-01-01

    Modern probability theory studies chance processes for which theknowledge of previous outcomes influence predictions for future experiments. In principle, when a sequence of chance experiments, all of the past outcomes could influence the predictions for the next experiment. In Markov chain type of chance, the outcome of a given experiment can affect the outcome of the next experiment. The system state changes with time and the state X and time t are two random variables. Each of these variab...

  3. MARKOV Model Application to Proliferation Risk Reduction of an Advanced Nuclear System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) emphasizes proliferation resistance and physical protection (PR and PP) as a main goal for future nuclear energy systems. The GIF PR and PP Working Group has developed a methodology for the evaluation of these systems. As an application of the methodology, Markov model has been developed for the evaluation of proliferation resistance and is demonstrated for a hypothetical Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) system. This paper presents the case of diversion by the facility owner/operator to obtain material that could be used in a nuclear weapon. The Markov model is applied to evaluate material diversion strategies. The following features of the Markov model are presented here: (1) An effective detection rate has been introduced to account for the implementation of multiple safeguards approaches at a given strategic point; (2) Technical failure to divert material is modeled as intrinsic barriers related to the design of the facility or the properties of the material in the facility; and (3) Concealment to defeat or degrade the performance of safeguards is recognized in the Markov model. Three proliferation risk measures are calculated directly by the Markov model: the detection probability, technical failure probability, and proliferation time. The material type is indicated by an index that is based on the quality of material diverted. Sensitivity cases have been done to demonstrate the effects of different modeling features on the measures of proliferation resistance

  4. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  5. Revisiting Temporal Markov Chains for Continuum modeling of Transport in Porous Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgoshaie, A. H.; Jenny, P.; Tchelepi, H.

    2017-12-01

    The transport of fluids in porous media is dominated by flow­-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying permeability field. Due to the high uncertainty in the permeability field, many realizations of the reference geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo (MC) framework. There has been strong interest in working with stochastic formulations of the transport that are different from the standard MC approach. Several stochastic models based on a velocity process for tracer particle trajectories have been proposed. Previous studies have shown that for high variances of the log-conductivity, the stochastic models need to account for correlations between consecutive velocity transitions to predict dispersion accurately. The correlated velocity models proposed in the literature can be divided into two general classes of temporal and spatial Markov models. Temporal Markov models have been applied successfully to tracer transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. These temporal models are Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with very specific drift and diffusion terms tailored for a specific permeability correlation structure. The drift and diffusion functions devised for a certain setup would not necessarily be suitable for a different scenario, (e.g., a different permeability correlation structure). The spatial Markov models are simple discrete Markov chains that do not require case specific assumptions. However, transverse spreading of contaminant plumes has not been successfully modeled with the available correlated spatial models. Here, we propose a temporal discrete Markov chain to model both the longitudinal and transverse dispersion in a two-dimensional domain. We demonstrate that these temporal Markov models are valid for different correlation structures without modification. Similar to the temporal SDEs, the proposed model respects the limited asymptotic transverse spreading of

  6. A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Gagliardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

  7. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading

  8. Subdivision of the MDR superfamily of medium-chain dehydrogenases/reductases through iterative hidden Markov model refinement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Persson Bengt

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Medium-chain Dehydrogenases/Reductases (MDR form a protein superfamily whose size and complexity defeats traditional means of subclassification; it currently has over 15000 members in the databases, the pairwise sequence identity is typically around 25%, there are members from all kingdoms of life, the chain-lengths vary as does the oligomericity, and the members are partaking in a multitude of biological processes. There are profile hidden Markov models (HMMs available for detecting MDR superfamily members, but none for determining which MDR family each protein belongs to. The current torrential influx of new sequence data enables elucidation of more and more protein families, and at an increasingly fine granularity. However, gathering good quality training data usually requires manual attention by experts and has therefore been the rate limiting step for expanding the number of available models. Results We have developed an automated algorithm for HMM refinement that produces stable and reliable models for protein families. This algorithm uses relationships found in data to generate confident seed sets. Using this algorithm we have produced HMMs for 86 distinct MDR families and 34 of their subfamilies which can be used in automated annotation of new sequences. We find that MDR forms with 2 Zn2+ ions in general are dehydrogenases, while MDR forms with no Zn2+ in general are reductases. Furthermore, in Bacteria MDRs without Zn2+ are more frequent than those with Zn2+, while the opposite is true for eukaryotic MDRs, indicating that Zn2+ has been recruited into the MDR superfamily after the initial life kingdom separations. We have also developed a web site http://mdr-enzymes.org that provides textual and numeric search against various characterised MDR family properties, as well as sequence scan functions for reliable classification of novel MDR sequences. Conclusions Our method of refinement can be readily applied to

  9. Optimizing Availability of a Framework in Series Configuration Utilizing Markov Model and Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansoor Ahmed Siddiqui

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This research work is aimed at optimizing the availability of a framework comprising of two units linked together in series configuration utilizing Markov Model and Monte Carlo (MC Simulation techniques. In this article, effort has been made to develop a maintenance model that incorporates three distinct states for each unit, while taking into account their different levels of deterioration. Calculations are carried out using the proposed model for two distinct cases of corrective repair, namely perfect and imperfect repairs, with as well as without opportunistic maintenance. Initially, results are accomplished using an analytical technique i.e., Markov Model. Validation of the results achieved is later carried out with the help of MC Simulation. In addition, MC Simulation based codes also work well for the frameworks that follow non-exponential failure and repair rates, and thus overcome the limitations offered by the Markov Model.

  10. [Compared Markov with fractal models by using single-channel experimental and simulation data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Tonghan; Wu, Hongxiu; Lin, Jiarui

    2006-10-01

    The gating mechanical kinetical of ion channels has been modeled as a Markov process. In these models it is assumed that the channel protein has a small number of discrete conformational states and kinetic rate constants connecting these states are constant, the transition rate constants among the states is independent both of time and of the previous channel activity. It is assumed in Liebovitch's fractal model that the channel exists in an infinite number of energy states, consequently, transitions from one conductance state to another would be governed by a continuum of rate constants. In this paper, a statistical comparison is presented of Markov and fractal models of ion channel gating, the analysis is based on single-channel data from ion channel voltage-dependence K+ single channel of neuron cell and simulation data from three-states Markov model.

  11. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  12. Incorporation of Markov reliability models for digital instrumentation and control systems into existing PRAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucci, P.; Mangan, L. A.; Kirschenbaum, J.; Mandelli, D.; Aldemir, T.; Arndt, S. A.

    2006-01-01

    Markov models have the ability to capture the statistical dependence between failure events that can arise in the presence of complex dynamic interactions between components of digital instrumentation and control systems. One obstacle to the use of such models in an existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is that most of the currently available PRA software is based on the static event-tree/fault-tree methodology which often cannot represent such interactions. We present an approach to the integration of Markov reliability models into existing PRAs by describing the Markov model of a digital steam generator feedwater level control system, how dynamic event trees (DETs) can be generated from the model, and how the DETs can be incorporated into an existing PRA with the SAPHIRE software. (authors)

  13. Semi-Markov models control of restorable systems with latent failures

    CERN Document Server

    Obzherin, Yuriy E

    2015-01-01

    Featuring previously unpublished results, Semi-Markov Models: Control of Restorable Systems with Latent Failures describes valuable methodology which can be used by readers to build mathematical models of a wide class of systems for various applications. In particular, this information can be applied to build models of reliability, queuing systems, and technical control. Beginning with a brief introduction to the area, the book covers semi-Markov models for different control strategies in one-component systems, defining their stationary characteristics of reliability and efficiency, and uti

  14. Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboofazeli, Mohammad; Moussavi, Zahra

    2009-01-01

    Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.

  15. Projected metastable Markov processes and their estimation with observable operator models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank

    2015-01-01

    The determination of kinetics of high-dimensional dynamical systems, such as macromolecules, polymers, or spin systems, is a difficult and generally unsolved problem — both in simulation, where the optimal reaction coordinate(s) are generally unknown and are difficult to compute, and in experimental measurements, where only specific coordinates are observable. Markov models, or Markov state models, are widely used but suffer from the fact that the dynamics on a coarsely discretized state spaced are no longer Markovian, even if the dynamics in the full phase space are. The recently proposed projected Markov models (PMMs) are a formulation that provides a description of the kinetics on a low-dimensional projection without making the Markovianity assumption. However, as yet no general way of estimating PMMs from data has been available. Here, we show that the observed dynamics of a PMM can be exactly described by an observable operator model (OOM) and derive a PMM estimator based on the OOM learning

  16. Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aboofazeli, Mohammad [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: umaboofa@cc.umanitoba.ca; Moussavi, Zahra [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: mousavi@ee.umanitoba.ca

    2009-01-30

    Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.

  17. A mathematical approach for evaluating Markov models in continuous time without discrete-event simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rosmalen, Joost; Toy, Mehlika; O'Mahony, James F

    2013-08-01

    Markov models are a simple and powerful tool for analyzing the health and economic effects of health care interventions. These models are usually evaluated in discrete time using cohort analysis. The use of discrete time assumes that changes in health states occur only at the end of a cycle period. Discrete-time Markov models only approximate the process of disease progression, as clinical events typically occur in continuous time. The approximation can yield biased cost-effectiveness estimates for Markov models with long cycle periods and if no half-cycle correction is made. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of methods for evaluating Markov models in continuous time. These methods use mathematical results from stochastic process theory and control theory. The methods are illustrated using an applied example on the cost-effectiveness of antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B. The main result is a mathematical solution for the expected time spent in each state in a continuous-time Markov model. It is shown how this solution can account for age-dependent transition rates and discounting of costs and health effects, and how the concept of tunnel states can be used to account for transition rates that depend on the time spent in a state. The applied example shows that the continuous-time model yields more accurate results than the discrete-time model but does not require much computation time and is easily implemented. In conclusion, continuous-time Markov models are a feasible alternative to cohort analysis and can offer several theoretical and practical advantages.

  18. Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward

    2000-01-01

    We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...... Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. The advantage of this method is that detection of short time learning effects between repeated trials is possible since inference is based only on single trial experiments....

  19. A New Algorithm for Identifying Cis-Regulatory Modules Based on Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Guo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The discovery of cis-regulatory modules (CRMs is the key to understanding mechanisms of transcription regulation. Since CRMs have specific regulatory structures that are the basis for the regulation of gene expression, how to model the regulatory structure of CRMs has a considerable impact on the performance of CRM identification. The paper proposes a CRM discovery algorithm called ComSPS. ComSPS builds a regulatory structure model of CRMs based on HMM by exploring the rules of CRM transcriptional grammar that governs the internal motif site arrangement of CRMs. We test ComSPS on three benchmark datasets and compare it with five existing methods. Experimental results show that ComSPS performs better than them.

  20. A New Algorithm for Identifying Cis-Regulatory Modules Based on Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The discovery of cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) is the key to understanding mechanisms of transcription regulation. Since CRMs have specific regulatory structures that are the basis for the regulation of gene expression, how to model the regulatory structure of CRMs has a considerable impact on the performance of CRM identification. The paper proposes a CRM discovery algorithm called ComSPS. ComSPS builds a regulatory structure model of CRMs based on HMM by exploring the rules of CRM transcriptional grammar that governs the internal motif site arrangement of CRMs. We test ComSPS on three benchmark datasets and compare it with five existing methods. Experimental results show that ComSPS performs better than them. PMID:28497059

  1. An integrated Markov decision process and nested logit consumer response model of air ticket pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.

  2. Hidden Semi Markov Models for Multiple Observation Sequences: The mhsmm Package for R

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Connell, Jarad Michael; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    models only allow a geometrically distributed sojourn time in a given state, while hidden semi-Markov models extend this by allowing an arbitrary sojourn distribution. We demonstrate the software with simulation examples and an application involving the modelling of the ovarian cycle of dairy cows...

  3. Estimation and asymptotic theory for transition probabilities in Markov Renewal Multi–state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spitoni, C.; Verduijn, M.; Putter, H.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss estimation of transition probabilities for semi–Markov multi–state models. Non–parametric and semi–parametric estimators of the transition probabilities for a large class of models (forward going models) are proposed. Large sample theory is derived using the functional

  4. The Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Fatigue Model Compared with Empirical Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard

    The applicability of the FMF-model (Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Fatigue Model) introduced in Gansted, L., R. Brincker and L. Pilegaard Hansen (1991) is tested by simulations and compared with empirical data. Two sets of data have been used, the Virkler data (aluminium alloy) and data...... established at the Laboratory of Structural Engineering at Aalborg University, the AUC-data, (mild steel). The model, which is based on the assumption, that the crack propagation process can be described by a discrete Space Markov theory, is applicable to constant as well as random loading. It is shown...

  5. A Bayesian method for construction of Markov models to describe dynamics on various time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rains, Emily K; Andersen, Hans C

    2010-10-14

    The dynamics of many biological processes of interest, such as the folding of a protein, are slow and complicated enough that a single molecular dynamics simulation trajectory of the entire process is difficult to obtain in any reasonable amount of time. Moreover, one such simulation may not be sufficient to develop an understanding of the mechanism of the process, and multiple simulations may be necessary. One approach to circumvent this computational barrier is the use of Markov state models. These models are useful because they can be constructed using data from a large number of shorter simulations instead of a single long simulation. This paper presents a new Bayesian method for the construction of Markov models from simulation data. A Markov model is specified by (τ,P,T), where τ is the mesoscopic time step, P is a partition of configuration space into mesostates, and T is an N(P)×N(P) transition rate matrix for transitions between the mesostates in one mesoscopic time step, where N(P) is the number of mesostates in P. The method presented here is different from previous Bayesian methods in several ways. (1) The method uses Bayesian analysis to determine the partition as well as the transition probabilities. (2) The method allows the construction of a Markov model for any chosen mesoscopic time-scale τ. (3) It constructs Markov models for which the diagonal elements of T are all equal to or greater than 0.5. Such a model will be called a "consistent mesoscopic Markov model" (CMMM). Such models have important advantages for providing an understanding of the dynamics on a mesoscopic time-scale. The Bayesian method uses simulation data to find a posterior probability distribution for (P,T) for any chosen τ. This distribution can be regarded as the Bayesian probability that the kinetics observed in the atomistic simulation data on the mesoscopic time-scale τ was generated by the CMMM specified by (P,T). An optimization algorithm is used to find the most

  6. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines using Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Velazquez, J.C.; Caleyo, F.; Hallen, J.M.; Araujo, J.E. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional (IPN), Mexico D.F. (Mexico). Escuela Superior de Ingenieria Quimica e Industrias Extractivas (ESIQIE); Valor, A. [Universidad de La Habana, La Habana (Cuba)

    2009-07-01

    A non-homogenous, linear growth (pure birth) Markov process, with discrete states in continuous time, has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The transition probability function for the pit depth is obtained from the analytical solution of the forward Kolmogorov equations for this process. The parameters of the transition probability function between depth states can be identified from the observed time evolution of the mean of the pit depth distribution. Monte Carlo simulations were used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution in soils with different physicochemical characteristics. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov-chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion from the observed properties of the soil in contact with the pipeline. Real- life case studies, involving simulated and measured pit depth distributions are presented to illustrate the application of the proposed Markov chains model. (author)

  7. Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

    2017-11-01

    This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

  8. Discrete-time semi-Markov modeling of human papillomavirus persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, C. E.; Hudgens, M. G.; King, C. C.; Cu-Uvin, S.; Lo, Y.; Rompalo, A.; Sobel, J.; Smith, J. S.

    2011-01-01

    Multi-state modeling is often employed to describe the progression of a disease process. In epidemiological studies of certain diseases, the disease state is typically only observed at periodic clinical visits, producing incomplete longitudinal data. In this paper we consider fitting semi-Markov models to estimate the persistence of human papillomavirus (HPV) type-specific infection in studies where the status of HPV type(s) is assessed periodically. Simulation study results are presented indicating the semi-Markov estimator is more accurate than an estimator currently used in the HPV literature. The methods are illustrated using data from the HIV Epidemiology Research Study (HERS). PMID:21538985

  9. Study of the seismic activity in central Ionian Islands via semi-Markov modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertsinidou, Christina Elisavet; Tsaklidis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria

    2017-06-01

    The seismicity of the central Ionian Islands ( M ≥ 5.2, 1911-2014) is studied via a semi-Markov chain which is investigated in terms of the destination probabilities (occurrence probabilities). The interevent times are considered to follow geometric (in which case the semi-Markov model reduces to a Markov model) or Pareto distributions. The study of the destination probabilities is useful for forecasting purposes because they can provide the more probable earthquake magnitude and occurrence time. Using the first half of the data sample for the estimation procedure and the other half for forecasting purposes it is found that the time windows obtained by the destination probabilities include 72.9% of the observed earthquake occurrence times (for all magnitudes) and 71.4% for the larger ( M ≥ 6.0) ones.

  10. Automatic categorization of web pages and user clustering with mixtures of hidden Markov models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ypma, A.; Heskes, T.M.; Zaiane, O.R.; Srivastav, J.

    2003-01-01

    We propose mixtures of hidden Markov models for modelling clickstreams of web surfers. Hence, the page categorization is learned from the data without the need for a (possibly cumbersome) manual categorization. We provide an EM algorithm for training a mixture of HMMs and show that additional static

  11. 438 Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, Hidden Markov Model is applied to model human movements as to .... emit either discrete information or a continuous data derived from a Probability .... For each hidden state in the test set, the probability = ... by applying the Kullback-Leibler distance (Juang & Rabiner, 1985) which ..... One Size Does Not Fit.

  12. a multi-period markov model for monthly rainfall in lagos, nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PUBLICATIONS1

    A twelve-period. Markov model has been developed for the monthly rainfall data for Lagos, along the coast of .... autoregressive process to model river flow; Deo et al. (2015) utilized an ...... quences for the analysis of river basins by simulation.

  13. Context Analysis of Customer Requests using a Hybrid Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System and Hidden Markov Models in the Natural Language Call Routing Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustamov, Samir; Mustafayev, Elshan; Clements, Mark A.

    2018-04-01

    The context analysis of customer requests in a natural language call routing problem is investigated in the paper. One of the most significant problems in natural language call routing is a comprehension of client request. With the aim of finding a solution to this issue, the Hybrid HMM and ANFIS models become a subject to an examination. Combining different types of models (ANFIS and HMM) can prevent misunderstanding by the system for identification of user intention in dialogue system. Based on these models, the hybrid system may be employed in various language and call routing domains due to nonusage of lexical or syntactic analysis in classification process.

  14. Context Analysis of Customer Requests using a Hybrid Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System and Hidden Markov Models in the Natural Language Call Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rustamov Samir

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The context analysis of customer requests in a natural language call routing problem is investigated in the paper. One of the most significant problems in natural language call routing is a comprehension of client request. With the aim of finding a solution to this issue, the Hybrid HMM and ANFIS models become a subject to an examination. Combining different types of models (ANFIS and HMM can prevent misunderstanding by the system for identification of user intention in dialogue system. Based on these models, the hybrid system may be employed in various language and call routing domains due to nonusage of lexical or syntactic analysis in classification process.

  15. Enhancement of Markov chain model by integrating exponential smoothing: A case study on Muslims marriage and divorce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamaluddin, Fadhilah; Rahim, Rahela Abdul

    2015-12-01

    Markov Chain has been introduced since the 1913 for the purpose of studying the flow of data for a consecutive number of years of the data and also forecasting. The important feature in Markov Chain is obtaining the accurate Transition Probability Matrix (TPM). However to obtain the suitable TPM is hard especially in involving long-term modeling due to unavailability of data. This paper aims to enhance the classical Markov Chain by introducing Exponential Smoothing technique in developing the appropriate TPM.

  16. Grey-Markov prediction model based on background value optimization and central-point triangular whitenization weight function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jing; Dang, Yaoguo; Li, Bingjun

    2018-01-01

    Grey-Markov forecasting model is a combination of grey prediction model and Markov chain which show obvious optimization effects for data sequences with characteristics of non-stationary and volatility. However, the state division process in traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model is mostly based on subjective real numbers that immediately affects the accuracy of forecasting values. To seek the solution, this paper introduces the central-point triangular whitenization weight function in state division to calculate possibilities of research values in each state which reflect preference degrees in different states in an objective way. On the other hand, background value optimization is applied in the traditional grey model to generate better fitting data. By this means, the improved Grey-Markov forecasting model is built. Finally, taking the grain production in Henan Province as an example, it verifies this model's validity by comparing with GM(1,1) based on background value optimization and the traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model.

  17. Reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water system using semi-Markov process model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veeramany, Arun; Pandey, Mahesh D.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Semi-Markov process (SMP) model is used to evaluate system failure probability of the nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system. → SMP is used because it can solve reliability block diagram with a mixture of redundant repairable and non-repairable components. → The primary objective is to demonstrate that SMP can consider Weibull failure time distribution for components while a Markov model cannot → Result: the variability in component failure time is directly proportional to the NCCW system failure probability. → The result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects. - Abstract: A reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system is carried out. Semi-Markov process model is used in the analysis because it has potential to solve a reliability block diagram with a mixture of repairable and non-repairable components. With Markov models it is only possible to assume an exponential profile for component failure times. An advantage of the proposed model is the ability to assume Weibull distribution for the failure time of components. In an attempt to reduce the number of states in the model, it is shown that usage of poly-Weibull distribution arises. The objective of the paper is to determine system failure probability under these assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is used to validate the model result. This result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects.

  18. Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making: An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

    2016-01-01

    Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease progression can often be obtained by assuming that the future state transitions do not depend only on the present state (Markov assumption) but also on the past through time since entry in the present state. Despite that these so-called semi-Markov models are still relatively straightforward to specify and implement, they are not yet routinely applied in health economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. To facilitate a better understanding of this type of model among applied health economic analysts, the first part of this article provides a detailed discussion of what the semi-Markov model entails and how such models can be specified in an intuitive way by adopting an approach called vertical modeling. In the second part of the article, we use this approach to construct a semi-Markov model for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of 3 disease management programs for heart failure. Compared with a standard Markov model with the same disease states, our proposed semi-Markov model fitted the observed data much better. When subsequently extrapolating beyond the clinical trial period, these relatively large differences in goodness-of-fit translated into almost a doubling in mean total cost and a 60-d decrease in mean survival time when using the Markov model instead of the semi-Markov model. For the disease process considered in our case study, the semi-Markov model thus provided a sensible balance between model parsimoniousness and computational complexity. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Sheng; Chi, Kun; Zhang, Qiyi; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2012-03-01

    Compared with traditional real-time forecasting, this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area. The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model. The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values, and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information. The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps: 1) establish the GM (1, 1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2, and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy. The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin, China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps. Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence. Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data. The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary. The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable. The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

  20. The algebra of the general Markov model on phylogenetic trees and networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, J G; Holland, B R; Jarvis, P D

    2012-04-01

    It is known that the Kimura 3ST model of sequence evolution on phylogenetic trees can be extended quite naturally to arbitrary split systems. However, this extension relies heavily on mathematical peculiarities of the associated Hadamard transformation, and providing an analogous augmentation of the general Markov model has thus far been elusive. In this paper, we rectify this shortcoming by showing how to extend the general Markov model on trees to include incompatible edges; and even further to more general network models. This is achieved by exploring the algebra of the generators of the continuous-time Markov chain together with the “splitting” operator that generates the branching process on phylogenetic trees. For simplicity, we proceed by discussing the two state case and then show that our results are easily extended to more states with little complication. Intriguingly, upon restriction of the two state general Markov model to the parameter space of the binary symmetric model, our extension is indistinguishable from the Hadamard approach only on trees; as soon as any incompatible splits are introduced the two approaches give rise to differing probability distributions with disparate structure. Through exploration of a simple example, we give an argument that our extension to more general networks has desirable properties that the previous approaches do not share. In particular, our construction allows for convergent evolution of previously divergent lineages; a property that is of significant interest for biological applications.

  1. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

    2008-01-01

    The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)

  2. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safety, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)

  3. rEMM: Extensible Markov Model for Data Stream Clustering in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Hahsler

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Clustering streams of continuously arriving data has become an important application of data mining in recent years and efficient algorithms have been proposed by several researchers. However, clustering alone neglects the fact that data in a data stream is not only characterized by the proximity of data points which is used by clustering, but also by a temporal component. The extensible Markov model (EMM adds the temporal component to data stream clustering by superimposing a dynamically adapting Markov chain. In this paper we introduce the implementation of the R extension package rEMM which implements EMM and we discuss some examples and applications.

  4. Detecting memory and structure in human navigation patterns using Markov chain models of varying order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Philipp; Helic, Denis; Taraghi, Behnam; Strohmaier, Markus

    2014-01-01

    One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form) and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work.

  5. Detecting memory and structure in human navigation patterns using Markov chain models of varying order.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Singer

    Full Text Available One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work.

  6. Input modeling with phase-type distributions and Markov models theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Buchholz, Peter; Felko, Iryna

    2014-01-01

    Containing a summary of several recent results on Markov-based input modeling in a coherent notation, this book introduces and compares algorithms for parameter fitting and gives an overview of available software tools in the area. Due to progress made in recent years with respect to new algorithms to generate PH distributions and Markovian arrival processes from measured data, the models outlined are useful alternatives to other distributions or stochastic processes used for input modeling. Graduate students and researchers in applied probability, operations research and computer science along with practitioners using simulation or analytical models for performance analysis and capacity planning will find the unified notation and up-to-date results presented useful. Input modeling is the key step in model based system analysis to adequately describe the load of a system using stochastic models. The goal of input modeling is to find a stochastic model to describe a sequence of measurements from a real system...

  7. Implementation of a Tour Guide Robot System Using RFID Technology and Viterbi Algorithm-Based HMM for Speech Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neng-Sheng Pai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper applied speech recognition and RFID technologies to develop an omni-directional mobile robot into a robot with voice control and guide introduction functions. For speech recognition, the speech signals were captured by short-time processing. The speaker first recorded the isolated words for the robot to create speech database of specific speakers. After the speech pre-processing of this speech database, the feature parameters of cepstrum and delta-cepstrum were obtained using linear predictive coefficient (LPC. Then, the Hidden Markov Model (HMM was used for model training of the speech database, and the Viterbi algorithm was used to find an optimal state sequence as the reference sample for speech recognition. The trained reference model was put into the industrial computer on the robot platform, and the user entered the isolated words to be tested. After processing by the same reference model and comparing with previous reference model, the path of the maximum total probability in various models found using the Viterbi algorithm in the recognition was the recognition result. Finally, the speech recognition and RFID systems were achieved in an actual environment to prove its feasibility and stability, and implemented into the omni-directional mobile robot.

  8. Confronting uncertainty in model-based geostatistics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minasny, B.; Vrugt, J.A.; McBratney, A.B.

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates for the first time the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter inference in model-based soil geostatistics. We implemented the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm to jointly summarize the posterior

  9. Avian life history profiles for use in the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Markov Chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, quantitatively estimates the effects of pesticides or other toxic chemicals on annual reproductive success of avian species (Bennett and Etterson 2013, Etterson and Bennett 2013). The Basic Version of MCnest was developed as a...

  10. Cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization: a Markov decision-analytic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, Lobke M.; Broekmans, Frank J. M.; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.

    2011-01-01

    To compare the cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization (IVF). A Markov decision model based on data from the literature and original patient data. Decision analytic framework. Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women aged 20 to 45 years who are eligible for IVF.

  11. Cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization : a Markov decision-analytic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, Lobke M.; Broekmans, Frank J. M.; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To compare the cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization (IVF). Design: A Markov decision model based on data from the literature and original patient data. Setting: Decision analytic framework. Patient(s): Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women aged

  12. Fast sampling from a Hidden Markov Model posterior for large data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnevie, Rasmus; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2014-01-01

    Hidden Markov Models are of interest in a broad set of applications including modern data driven systems involving very large data sets. However, approximate inference methods based on Bayesian averaging are precluded in such applications as each sampling step requires a full sweep over the data...

  13. On dynamic selection of households for direct marketing based on Markov chain models with memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otter, Pieter W.

    A simple, dynamic selection procedure is proposed, based on conditional, expected profits using Markov chain models with memory. The method is easy to apply, only frequencies and mean values have to be calculated or estimated. The method is empirically illustrated using a data set from a charitable

  14. Asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models with application to ion channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gunst, M.C.M.; Shcherbakova, O.V.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models as the number of observations goes to infinity. The theorem that we prove is similar to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem on the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution for the case of independent

  15. Predicting Equity Markets with Digital Online Media Sentiment: Evidence from Markov-switching Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooijen, S.J.; Broda, S.A.

    2016-01-01

    The authors examine the predictive capabilities of online investor sentiment for the returns and volatility of MSCI U.S. Equity Sector Indices by including exogenous variables in the mean and volatility specifications of a Markov-switching model. As predicted by the semistrong efficient market

  16. Markov models for digraph panel data : Monte Carlo-based derivative estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweinberger, Michael; Snijders, Tom A. B.

    2007-01-01

    A parametric, continuous-time Markov model for digraph panel data is considered. The parameter is estimated by the method of moments. A convenient method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the moment estimator relies on the delta method, requiring the Jacobian matrix-that is, the

  17. User's Manual MCnest - Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model Version 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Markov chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, is a set of algorithms for integrating the results of avian toxicity tests with reproductive life-history data to project the relative magnitude of chemical effects on avian reproduction. The mathematical foundation of MCnest i...

  18. A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model with new convergence condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model with new convergence condition. (TPHOMMCM-NCC). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM-NCC is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM-NCC.

  19. Markov Chain model for the stochastic behaviors of wind-direction data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masseran, Nurulkamal

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • I develop a Markov chain model to describe about the stochastic and probabilistic behaviors of wind direction data. • I describe some of the theoretical arguments regarding the Markov chain model in term of wind direction data. • I suggest a limiting probabilities approach to determine a dominant directions of wind blow. - Abstract: Analyzing the behaviors of wind direction can complement knowledge concerning wind speed and help researchers draw conclusions regarding wind energy potential. Knowledge of the wind’s direction enables the wind turbine to be positioned in such a way as to maximize the total amount of captured energy and optimize the wind farm’s performance. In this paper, first-order and higher-order Markov chain models are proposed to describe the probabilistic behaviors of wind-direction data. A case study is conducted using data from Mersing, Malaysia. The wind-direction data are classified according to an eight-state Markov chain based on natural geographical directions. The model’s parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the linear programming formulation. Several theoretical arguments regarding the model are also discussed. Finally, limiting probabilities are used to determine a long-run proportion of the wind directions generated. The results explain the dominant direction for Mersing’s wind in terms of probability metrics

  20. A Test of the Need Hierarchy Concept by a Markov Model of Change in Need Strength.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauschenberger, John; And Others

    1980-01-01

    In this study of 547 high school graduates, Alderfer's and Maslow's need hierarchy theories were expressed in Markov chain form and were subjected to empirical test. Both models were disconfirmed. Corroborative multiwave correlational analysis also failed to support the need hierarchy concept. (Author/IRT)

  1. Exact Sampling and Decoding in High-Order Hidden Markov Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carter, S.; Dymetman, M.; Bouchard, G.

    2012-01-01

    We present a method for exact optimization and sampling from high order Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), which are generally handled by approximation techniques. Motivated by adaptive rejection sampling and heuristic search, we propose a strategy based on sequentially refining a lower-order language

  2. Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled

  3. Chronic kidney disease Markov model comparing paricalcitol to calcitriol for secondary hyperparathyroidism: A US perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J.C. Nuijten (Mark); D.L. Andress (Dennis); S.E. Marx (Steven); R. Sterz (Raimund)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective: The objective of this study was to determine the cost effectiveness of paricalcitol versus calcitriol for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism in patients with chronic kidney disease in the United States setting. Methods: A Markov process model was developed

  4. Efficacy of hidden markov model over support vector machine on multiclass classification of healthy and cancerous cervical tissues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Kurmi, Indrajit; Pratiher, Sawon; Mukherjee, Sukanya; Barman, Ritwik; Ghosh, Nirmalya; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a comparative study between SVM and HMM has been carried out for multiclass classification of cervical healthy and cancerous tissues. In our study, the HMM methodology is more promising to produce higher accuracy in classification.

  5. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  6. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com

    2017-01-15

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  7. A Markov random field image segmentation model for lizard spots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Gómez-Villa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available La identificación de animales para estudio y conservación de la fauna puede ser realizada usando características de apariencia fenotípica como manchas, rayas o forma, teniendo la ventaja de que este enfoque no causa ningún daño al sujeto de estudio. Debido a que la identificación visual debe hacerse a través de la inspección, un experto revisa potencialmente cientos o miles de imágenes. En este trabajo se realiza un análisis con varios algoritmos clásicos de segmentación y preprocesamiento como: binarización, ecualización del histograma y corrección de la saturación. Contra los enfoques clásicos de segmentación, un modelo de segmentación basado en campos aleatorios de Markov para segmentación de manchas es propuesto y probado en imágenes ideales, estándares y desafiantes. Como sujeto de estudio es usado el lagarto Diploglossus millepunctatus. El método propuesto alcanzó una eficiencia máxima de 84,87%.

  8. Hierarchical Markov Model in Life Insurance and Social Benefit Schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiwook Jang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available We explored the effect of the jump-diffusion process on a social benefit scheme consisting of life insurance, unemployment/disability benefits, and retirement benefits. To do so, we used a four-state Markov chain with multiple decrements. Assuming independent state-wise intensities taking the form of a jump-diffusion process and deterministic interest rates, we evaluated the prospective reserves for this scheme in which the individual is employed at inception. We then numerically demonstrated the state of the reserves for the scheme under jump-diffusion and non-jump-diffusion settings. By decomposing the reserve equation into five components, our numerical illustration indicated that an extension of the retirement age has a spillover effect that would increase government expenses for other social insurance programs. We also conducted sensitivity analyses and examined the total-reserves components by changing the relevant parameters of the transition intensities, which are the average jump-size parameter, average jump frequency, and diffusion parameters of the chosen states, with figures provided. Our computation revealed that the total reserve is most sensitive to changes in average jump frequency.

  9. An Approach of Diagnosis Based On The Hidden Markov Chains Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim Bouamrane

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Diagnosis is a key element in industrial system maintenance process performance. A diagnosis tool is proposed allowing the maintenance operators capitalizing on the knowledge of their trade and subdividing it for better performance improvement and intervention effectiveness within the maintenance process service. The Tool is based on the Markov Chain Model and more precisely the Hidden Markov Chains (HMC which has the system failures determination advantage, taking into account the causal relations, stochastic context modeling of their dynamics and providing a relevant diagnosis help by their ability of dubious information use. Since the FMEA method is a well adapted artificial intelligence field, the modeling with Markov Chains is carried out with its assistance. Recently, a dynamic programming recursive algorithm, called 'Viterbi Algorithm', is being used in the Hidden Markov Chains field. This algorithm provides as input to the HMC a set of system observed effects and generates at exit the various causes having caused the loss from one or several system functions.

  10. Process Modeling for Energy Usage in “Smart House” System with a Help of Markov Discrete Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Kravets

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Method for evaluating economic efficiency of technical systems using discrete Markov chains modelling illustrated by the system of “Smart house”, consisting, for example, of the three independently functioning elements. Dynamic model of a random power consumption process in the form of a symmetrical state graph of heterogeneous discrete Markov chain is built. The corresponding mathematical model of a random Markov process of power consumption in the “smart house” system in recurrent matrix form is being developed. Technique of statistical determination of probability of random transition elements of the system and the corresponding to the transition probability matrix of the discrete inhomogeneous Markov chain are developed. Statistically determined random transitions of system elements power consumption and the corresponding distribution laws are introduced. The matrix of transition prices, expectations for the possible states of a system price transition and, eventually, the cost of Markov process of power consumption throughout the day.

  11. Segmentation of laser range radar images using hidden Markov field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pucar, P.

    1993-01-01

    Segmentation of images in the context of model based stochastic techniques is connected with high, very often unpracticle computational complexity. The objective with this thesis is to take the models used in model based image processing, simplify and use them in suboptimal, but not computationally demanding algorithms. Algorithms that are essentially one-dimensional, and their extensions to two dimensions are given. The model used in this thesis is the well known hidden Markov model. Estimation of the number of hidden states from observed data is a problem that is addressed. The state order estimation problem is of general interest and is not specifically connected to image processing. An investigation of three state order estimation techniques for hidden Markov models is given. 76 refs

  12. Hidden Markov models for zero-inflated Poisson counts with an application to substance use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSantis, Stacia M; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar

    2011-06-30

    Paradigms for substance abuse cue-reactivity research involve pharmacological or stressful stimulation designed to elicit stress and craving responses in cocaine-dependent subjects. It is unclear as to whether stress induced from participation in such studies increases drug-seeking behavior. We propose a 2-state Hidden Markov model to model the number of cocaine abuses per week before and after participation in a stress-and cue-reactivity study. The hypothesized latent state corresponds to 'high' or 'low' use. To account for a preponderance of zeros, we assume a zero-inflated Poisson model for the count data. Transition probabilities depend on the prior week's state, fixed demographic variables, and time-varying covariates. We adopt a Bayesian approach to model fitting, and use the conditional predictive ordinate statistic to demonstrate that the zero-inflated Poisson hidden Markov model outperforms other models for longitudinal count data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Basic problems solving for two-dimensional discrete 3 × 4 order hidden markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Guo-gang; Gan, Zong-liang; Tang, Gui-jin; Cui, Zi-guan; Zhu, Xiu-chang

    2016-01-01

    A novel model is proposed to overcome the shortages of the classical hypothesis of the two-dimensional discrete hidden Markov model. In the proposed model, the state transition probability depends on not only immediate horizontal and vertical states but also on immediate diagonal state, and the observation symbol probability depends on not only current state but also on immediate horizontal, vertical and diagonal states. This paper defines the structure of the model, and studies the three basic problems of the model, including probability calculation, path backtracking and parameters estimation. By exploiting the idea that the sequences of states on rows or columns of the model can be seen as states of a one-dimensional discrete 1 × 2 order hidden Markov model, several algorithms solving the three questions are theoretically derived. Simulation results further demonstrate the performance of the algorithms. Compared with the two-dimensional discrete hidden Markov model, there are more statistical characteristics in the structure of the proposed model, therefore the proposed model theoretically can more accurately describe some practical problems.

  14. Development and validation of a Markov microsimulation model for the economic evaluation of treatments in osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Richy, Florent; Gathon, Henry-Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are increasingly used in economic evaluations of treatments for osteoporosis. Most of the existing evaluations are cohort-based Markov models missing comprehensive memory management and versatility. In this article, we describe and validate an original Markov microsimulation model to accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We developed a Markov microsimulation model with a lifetime horizon and a direct health-care cost perspective. The patient history was recorded and was used in calculations of transition probabilities, utilities, and costs. To test the internal consistency of the model, we carried out an example calculation for alendronate therapy. Then, external consistency was investigated by comparing absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates with epidemiologic data. For women at age 70 years, with a twofold increase in the fracture risk of the average population, the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained for alendronate therapy versus no treatment were estimated at €9105 and €15,325, respectively, under full and realistic adherence assumptions. All the sensitivity analyses in terms of model parameters and modeling assumptions were coherent with expected conclusions and absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates were within the range of previous estimates, which confirmed both internal and external consistency of the model. Microsimulation models present some major advantages over cohort-based models, increasing the reliability of the results and being largely compatible with the existing state of the art, evidence-based literature. The developed model appears to be a valid model for use in economic evaluations in osteoporosis.

  15. Utilizing Gaze Behavior for Inferring Task Transitions Using Abstract Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Fernando Tello Gamarra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate an improved method for utilizing observed gaze behavior and show that it is useful in inferring hand movement intent during goal directed tasks. The task dynamics and the relationship between hand and gaze behavior are learned using an Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM. We show that the predicted hand movement transitions occur consistently earlier in AHMM models with gaze than those models that do not include gaze observations.

  16. Bearing Degradation Process Prediction Based on the Support Vector Machine and Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaojiang Dong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the degradation process of bearings before they reach the failure threshold is extremely important in industry. This paper proposed a novel method based on the support vector machine (SVM and the Markov model to achieve this goal. Firstly, the features are extracted by time and time-frequency domain methods. However, the extracted original features are still with high dimensional and include superfluous information, and the nonlinear multifeatures fusion technique LTSA is used to merge the features and reduces the dimension. Then, based on the extracted features, the SVM model is used to predict the bearings degradation process, and the CAO method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the SVM model. After the bearing degradation process is predicted by SVM model, the Markov model is used to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed method was validated by two bearing run-to-failure experiments, and the results proved the effectiveness of the methodology.

  17. Finding exact constants in a Markov model of Zipfs law generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu.; Nikiforov, A. A.; Pismenskiy, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    According to the classical Zipfs law, the word frequency is a power function of the word rank with an exponent -1. The objective of this work is to find multiplicative constant in a Markov model of word generation. Previously, the case of independent letters was mathematically strictly investigated in [Bochkarev V V and Lerner E Yu 2017 International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences Article ID 914374]. Unfortunately, the methods used in this paper cannot be generalized in case of Markov chains. The search of the correct formulation of the Markov generalization of this results was performed using experiments with different ergodic matrices of transition probability P. Combinatory technique allowed taking into account all the words with probability of more than e -300 in case of 2 by 2 matrices. It was experimentally proved that the required constant in the limit is equal to the value reciprocal to conditional entropy of matrix row P with weights presenting the elements of the vector π of the stationary distribution of the Markov chain.

  18. Explorations in the History of Machines and Mechanisms : Proceedings of HMM2012

    CERN Document Server

    Ceccarelli, Marco

    2012-01-01

    This book contains the proceedings of HMM2012, the 4th International Symposium on Historical Developments in the field of Mechanism and Machine Science (MMS). These proceedings cover recent research concerning all aspects of the development of MMS from antiquity until the present and its historiography: machines, mechanisms, kinematics, dynamics, concepts and theories, design methods, collections of methods, collections of models, institutions and biographies.

  19. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholam Hossein Hasantash

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

  20. A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...... with the higher mean and lower variance; bull market duration is found to be negatively dependent on short-term interest rates and positively on the interest rate spread, while bear market duration depends positively the short-term interest rate and negatively on the interest rate spread....

  1. Markov chain model helps predict pitting corrosion depth and rate in underground pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caleyo, F.; Velazquez, J.C.; Hallen, J. M. [ESIQIE, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Mexico D. F. (Mexico); Esquivel-Amezcua, A. [PEMEX PEP Region Sur, Villahermosa, Tabasco (Mexico); Valor, A. [Universidad de la Habana, Vedado, La Habana (Cuba)

    2010-07-01

    Recent reports place pipeline corrosion costs in North America at seven billion dollars per year. Pitting corrosion causes the higher percentage of failures among other corrosion mechanisms. This has motivated multiple modelling studies to be focused on corrosion pitting of underground pipelines. In this study, a continuous-time, non-homogenous pure birth Markov chain serves to model external pitting corrosion in buried pipelines. The analytical solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process gives the transition probability function in a discrete space of pit depths. The transition probability function can be completely identified by making a correlation between the stochastic pit depth mean and the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. The model proposed in this study can be applied to pitting corrosion data from repeated in-line pipeline inspections. Case studies presented in this work show how pipeline inspection and maintenance planning can be improved by using the proposed Markovian model for pitting corrosion.

  2. Modeling long correlation times using additive binary Markov chains: Applications to wind generation time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Juliane; Zachow, Christopher; Witthaut, Dirk

    2018-03-01

    Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial temporal fluctuations properly. We apply the concept of additive binary Markov chains to model a wind generation time series consisting of two states: periods of high and low wind generation. The only input parameter for this model is the empirical autocorrelation function. The two-state model is readily extended to stochastically reproduce the actual generation per period. To evaluate the additive binary Markov chain method, we introduce a coarse model of the electric power system to derive backup and storage needs. We find that the temporal correlations of wind power generation, the backup need as a function of the storage capacity, and the resting time distribution of high and low wind events for different shares of wind generation can be reconstructed.

  3. Modeling long correlation times using additive binary Markov chains: Applications to wind generation time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Juliane; Zachow, Christopher; Witthaut, Dirk

    2018-03-01

    Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial temporal fluctuations properly. We apply the concept of additive binary Markov chains to model a wind generation time series consisting of two states: periods of high and low wind generation. The only input parameter for this model is the empirical autocorrelation function. The two-state model is readily extended to stochastically reproduce the actual generation per period. To evaluate the additive binary Markov chain method, we introduce a coarse model of the electric power system to derive backup and storage needs. We find that the temporal correlations of wind power generation, the backup need as a function of the storage capacity, and the resting time distribution of high and low wind events for different shares of wind generation can be reconstructed.

  4. Caveats on Bayesian and hidden-Markov models (v2.8)

    OpenAIRE

    Schomaker, Lambert

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a number of fundamental and practical problems in the application of hidden-Markov models and Bayes when applied to cursive-script recognition. Several problems, however, will have an effect in other application areas. The most fundamental problem is the propagation of error in the product of probabilities. This is a common and pervasive problem which deserves more attention. On the basis of Monte Carlo modeling, tables for the expected relative error are given. It seems ...

  5. The Effects of Crude Oil on Stock Markets with use of Markov Switching Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wiese, Thor August Mediaas

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, a two regime Markov switching (MS) model is implemented to examine the relationship between crude oil, both brent oil and WTI, and stock markets. In particular, the model is applied to stock markets in both oil importing and exporting countries which include Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. This paper first evaluates the significance of oil parameters in the detected regimes, where the two regimes respond to low mean...

  6. HMM-based lexicon-driven and lexicon-free word recognition for online handwritten Indic scripts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharath, A; Madhvanath, Sriganesh

    2012-04-01

    Research for recognizing online handwritten words in Indic scripts is at its early stages when compared to Latin and Oriental scripts. In this paper, we address this problem specifically for two major Indic scripts--Devanagari and Tamil. In contrast to previous approaches, the techniques we propose are largely data driven and script independent. We propose two different techniques for word recognition based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM): lexicon driven and lexicon free. The lexicon-driven technique models each word in the lexicon as a sequence of symbol HMMs according to a standard symbol writing order derived from the phonetic representation. The lexicon-free technique uses a novel Bag-of-Symbols representation of the handwritten word that is independent of symbol order and allows rapid pruning of the lexicon. On handwritten Devanagari word samples featuring both standard and nonstandard symbol writing orders, a combination of lexicon-driven and lexicon-free recognizers significantly outperforms either of them used in isolation. In contrast, most Tamil word samples feature the standard symbol order, and the lexicon-driven recognizer outperforms the lexicon free one as well as their combination. The best recognition accuracies obtained for 20,000 word lexicons are 87.13 percent for Devanagari when the two recognizers are combined, and 91.8 percent for Tamil using the lexicon-driven technique.

  7. Hidden Markov models and other machine learning approaches in computational molecular biology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldi, P. [California Inst. of Tech., Pasadena, CA (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This tutorial was one of eight tutorials selected to be presented at the Third International Conference on Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology which was held in the United Kingdom from July 16 to 19, 1995. Computational tools are increasingly needed to process the massive amounts of data, to organize and classify sequences, to detect weak similarities, to separate coding from non-coding regions, and reconstruct the underlying evolutionary history. The fundamental problem in machine learning is the same as in scientific reasoning in general, as well as statistical modeling: to come up with a good model for the data. In this tutorial four classes of models are reviewed. They are: Hidden Markov models; artificial Neural Networks; Belief Networks; and Stochastic Grammars. When dealing with DNA and protein primary sequences, Hidden Markov models are one of the most flexible and powerful alignments and data base searches. In this tutorial, attention is focused on the theory of Hidden Markov Models, and how to apply them to problems in molecular biology.

  8. Assessing type I error and power of multistate Markov models for panel data-A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassarly, Christy; Martin, Renee' H; Chimowitz, Marc; Peña, Edsel A; Ramakrishnan, Viswanathan; Palesch, Yuko Y

    2017-01-01

    Ordinal outcomes collected at multiple follow-up visits are common in clinical trials. Sometimes, one visit is chosen for the primary analysis and the scale is dichotomized amounting to loss of information. Multistate Markov models describe how a process moves between states over time. Here, simulation studies are performed to investigate the type I error and power characteristics of multistate Markov models for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions. The results suggest that the multistate Markov models preserve the type I error and adequate power is achieved with modest sample sizes for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions.

  9. Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

    2014-05-01

    To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A reward semi-Markov process with memory for wind speed modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing interest in renewable energy leads scientific research to find a better way to recover most of the available energy. Particularly, the maximum energy recoverable from wind is equal to 59.3% of that available (Betz law) at a specific pitch angle and when the ratio between the wind speed in output and in input is equal to 1/3. The pitch angle is the angle formed between the airfoil of the blade of the wind turbine and the wind direction. Old turbine and a lot of that actually marketed, in fact, have always the same invariant geometry of the airfoil. This causes that wind turbines will work with an efficiency that is lower than 59.3%. New generation wind turbines, instead, have a system to variate the pitch angle by rotating the blades. This system able the wind turbines to recover, at different wind speed, always the maximum energy, working in Betz limit at different speed ratios. A powerful system control of the pitch angle allows the wind turbine to recover better the energy in transient regime. A good stochastic model for wind speed is then needed to help both the optimization of turbine design and to assist the system control to predict the value of the wind speed to positioning the blades quickly and correctly. The possibility to have synthetic data of wind speed is a powerful instrument to assist designer to verify the structures of the wind turbines or to estimate the energy recoverable from a specific site. To generate synthetic data, Markov chains of first or higher order are often used [1,2,3]. In particular in [1] is presented a comparison between a first-order Markov chain and a second-order Markov chain. A similar work, but only for the first-order Markov chain, is conduced by [2], presenting the probability transition matrix and comparing the energy spectral density and autocorrelation of real and synthetic wind speed data. A tentative to modeling and to join speed and direction of wind is presented in [3], by using two models, first

  11. Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    We define a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input (MARX) to generate runoff scenarios using climatic information. Runoff parameterization is assumed to be conditioned on a hidden climate state following a Markov chain, where state transition probabilities are functions...... of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...... Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition runoff parameterization. Among the investigated ENSO indexes, the NINO 1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and the trans-Nino index perform best as predictors. In the perspective of reservoir optimization at various time scales, MARX produces realistic...

  12. A Correlated Random Effects Model for Non-homogeneous Markov Processes with Nonignorable Missingness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Baojiang; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2013-05-01

    Life history data arising in clusters with prespecified assessment time points for patients often feature incomplete data since patients may choose to visit the clinic based on their needs. Markov process models provide a useful tool describing disease progression for life history data. The literature mainly focuses on time homogeneous process. In this paper we develop methods to deal with non-homogeneous Markov process with incomplete clustered life history data. A correlated random effects model is developed to deal with the nonignorable missingness, and a time transformation is employed to address the non-homogeneity in the transition model. Maximum likelihood estimate based on the Monte-Carlo EM algorithm is advocated for parameter estimation. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method works well in many situations. We also apply this method to an Alzheimer's disease study.

  13. Convergence monitoring of Markov chains generated for inverse tracking of unknown model parameters in atmospheric dispersion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Ryu, Hyung Joon; Jung, Gyu Hwan; Lee, Jai Ki

    2011-01-01

    The dependency within the sequential realizations in the generated Markov chains and their reliabilities are monitored by introducing the autocorrelation and the potential scale reduction factor (PSRF) by model parameters in the atmospheric dispersion. These two diagnostics have been applied for the posterior quantities of the release point and the release rate inferred through the inverse tracking of unknown model parameters for the Yonggwang atmospheric tracer experiment in Korea. The autocorrelations of model parameters are decreasing to low values approaching to zero with increase of lag, resulted in decrease of the dependencies within the two sequential realizations. Their PSRFs are reduced to within 1.2 and the adequate simulation number recognized from these results. From these two convergence diagnostics, the validation of Markov chains generated have been ensured and PSRF then is especially suggested as the efficient tool for convergence monitoring for the source reconstruction in atmospheric dispersion. (author)

  14. Learning to Automatically Detect Features for Mobile Robots Using Second-Order Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Aycard

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a new method based on Hidden Markov Models to interpret temporal sequences of sensor data from mobile robots to automatically detect features. Hidden Markov Models have been used for a long time in pattern recognition, especially in speech recognition. Their main advantages over other methods (such as neural networks are their ability to model noisy temporal signals of variable length. We show in this paper that this approach is well suited for interpretation of temporal sequences of mobile-robot sensor data. We present two distinct experiments and results: the first one in an indoor environment where a mobile robot learns to detect features like open doors or T-intersections, the second one in an outdoor environment where a different mobile robot has to identify situations like climbing a hill or crossing a rock.

  15. Statistical Shape Modelling and Markov Random Field Restoration (invited tutorial and exercise)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen

    This tutorial focuses on statistical shape analysis using point distribution models (PDM) which is widely used in modelling biological shape variability over a set of annotated training data. Furthermore, Active Shape Models (ASM) and Active Appearance Models (AAM) are based on PDMs and have proven...... deformation field between shapes. The tutorial demonstrates both generative active shape and appearance models, and MRF restoration on 3D polygonized surfaces. ''Exercise: Spectral-Spatial classification of multivariate images'' From annotated training data this exercise applies spatial image restoration...... using Markov random field relaxation of a spectral classifier. Keywords: the Ising model, the Potts model, stochastic sampling, discriminant analysis, expectation maximization....

  16. A Multistep Extending Truncation Method towards Model Construction of Infinite-State Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The model checking of Infinite-State Continuous Time Markov Chains will inevitably encounter the state explosion problem when constructing the CTMCs model; our method is to get a truncated model of the infinite one; to get a sufficient truncated model to meet the model checking of Continuous Stochastic Logic based system properties, we propose a multistep extending advanced truncation method towards model construction of CTMCs and implement it in the INFAMY model checker; the experiment results show that our method is effective.

  17. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in directed graphical models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højbjerre, Malene

    Directed graphical models present data possessing a complex dependence structure, and MCMC methods are computer-intensive simulation techniques to approximate high-dimensional intractable integrals, which emerge in such models with incomplete data. MCMC computations in directed graphical models h...

  18. Efficient Modelling, Generation and Analysis of Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative model checking is concerned with the verification of both quantitative and qualitative properties over models incorporating quantitative information. Increases in expressivity of the models involved allow more types of systems to be analysed, but also raise the difficulty of their

  19. Robust Transmission of Speech LSFs Using Hidden Markov Model-Based Multiple Description Index Assignments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradeepa Yahampath

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Speech coding techniques capable of generating encoded representations which are robust against channel losses play an important role in enabling reliable voice communication over packet networks and mobile wireless systems. In this paper, we investigate the use of multiple description index assignments (MDIAs for loss-tolerant transmission of line spectral frequency (LSF coefficients, typically generated by state-of-the-art speech coders. We propose a simulated annealing-based approach for optimizing MDIAs for Markov-model-based decoders which exploit inter- and intraframe correlations in LSF coefficients to reconstruct the quantized LSFs from coded bit streams corrupted by channel losses. Experimental results are presented which compare the performance of a number of novel LSF transmission schemes. These results clearly demonstrate that Markov-model-based decoders, when used in conjunction with optimized MDIA, can yield average spectral distortion much lower than that produced by methods such as interleaving/interpolation, commonly used to combat the packet losses.

  20. Overshoot in biological systems modelled by Markov chains: a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Chen; Qian, Minping; Jiang, Daquan

    2014-08-01

    A number of biological systems can be modelled by Markov chains. Recently, there has been an increasing concern about when biological systems modelled by Markov chains will perform a dynamic phenomenon called overshoot. In this study, the authors found that the steady-state behaviour of the system will have a great effect on the occurrence of overshoot. They showed that overshoot in general cannot occur in systems that will finally approach an equilibrium steady state. They further classified overshoot into two types, named as simple overshoot and oscillating overshoot. They showed that except for extreme cases, oscillating overshoot will occur if the system is far from equilibrium. All these results clearly show that overshoot is a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon with energy consumption. In addition, the main result in this study is validated with real experimental data.

  1. Robust Transmission of Speech LSFs Using Hidden Markov Model-Based Multiple Description Index Assignments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rondeau Paul

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Speech coding techniques capable of generating encoded representations which are robust against channel losses play an important role in enabling reliable voice communication over packet networks and mobile wireless systems. In this paper, we investigate the use of multiple description index assignments (MDIAs for loss-tolerant transmission of line spectral frequency (LSF coefficients, typically generated by state-of-the-art speech coders. We propose a simulated annealing-based approach for optimizing MDIAs for Markov-model-based decoders which exploit inter- and intraframe correlations in LSF coefficients to reconstruct the quantized LSFs from coded bit streams corrupted by channel losses. Experimental results are presented which compare the performance of a number of novel LSF transmission schemes. These results clearly demonstrate that Markov-model-based decoders, when used in conjunction with optimized MDIA, can yield average spectral distortion much lower than that produced by methods such as interleaving/interpolation, commonly used to combat the packet losses.

  2. Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram; Garg, Tarun Kr.

    2015-12-01

    This paper deals with the Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant. This system was modeled using Markov birth-death process with the assumption that the failure and repair rates of each subsystem follow exponential distribution. The first-order Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations are developed with the use of mnemonic rule and these equations are solved with Runga-Kutta fourth-order method. The long-run availability, reliability and mean time between failures are computed for various choices of failure and repair rates of subsystems of the system. The findings of the paper are discussed with the plant personnel to adopt and practice suitable maintenance policies/strategies to enhance the performance of the urea synthesis system of the fertilizer plant.

  3. Availability analysis of subsea blowout preventer using Markov model considering demand rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunghee Kim

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Availabilities of subsea Blowout Preventers (BOP in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (GoM OCS is investigated using a Markov method. An updated β factor model by SINTEF is used for common-cause failures in multiple redundant systems. Coefficient values of failure rates for the Markov model are derived using the β factor model of the PDS (reliability of computer-based safety systems, Norwegian acronym method. The blind shear ram preventer system of the subsea BOP components considers a demand rate to reflect reality more. Markov models considering the demand rate for one or two components are introduced. Two data sets are compared at the GoM OCS. The results show that three or four pipe ram preventers give similar availabilities, but redundant blind shear ram preventers or annular preventers enhance the availability of the subsea BOP. Also control systems (PODs and connectors are contributable components to improve the availability of the subsea BOPs based on sensitivity analysis.

  4. Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka

    2014-02-01

    In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain.

  5. Semi-Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Grabski

    2014-01-01

    Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in System Reliability and Maintenance is a modern view of discrete state space and continuous time semi-Markov processes and their applications in reliability and maintenance. The book explains how to construct semi-Markov models and discusses the different reliability parameters and characteristics that can be obtained from those models. The book is a useful resource for mathematicians, engineering practitioners, and PhD and MSc students who want to understand the basic concepts and results of semi-Markov process theory. Clearly defines the properties and

  6. Stability Analysis of Networked Control Systems with Random Time Delays and Packet Dropouts Modeled by Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qiu

    2013-01-01

    unified Markov jump model. The random time delays and packet dropouts existed in feedback communication link are modeled by two independent Markov chains; the resulting closed-loop system is described by a new Markovian jump linear system (MJLS with Markov delays. Sufficient conditions of the stochastic stability for NCSs is obtained by constructing a novel Lyapunov functional, and the mode-dependent output feedback controller design method is presented based on linear matrix inequality (LMI technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Deciphering the regulation of P2X4 receptor channel gating by ivermectin using Markov models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mackay, L.; Zemková, Hana; Stojilkovic, S. S.; Sherman, A.; Khadra, A.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 7 (2017), č. článku e1005643. ISSN 1553-734X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP304/12/G069 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : Markov models * ion channel gating * sensory receptors * cation s Subject RIV: ED - Physiology OBOR OECD: Physiology (including cytology) Impact factor: 4.542, year: 2016

  8. Modeling Urban Expansion in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Using Demographic–Economic Data through Cellular Automata-Markov Chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chudech Losiri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban expansion is considered as one of the most important problems in several developing countries. Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR is the urbanized and agglomerated area of Bangkok Metropolis (BM and its vicinity, which confronts the expansion problem from the center of the city. Landsat images of 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2011 were used to detect the land use and land cover (LULC changes. The demographic and economic data together with corresponding maps were used to determine the driving factors for land conversions. This study applied Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain (MLP-MC to model LULC and urban expansions. The performance of the CA-MC and MLP-MC yielded more than 90% overall accuracy to predict the LULC, especially the MLP-MC method. Further, the annual population and economic growth rates were considered to produce the land demand for the LULC in 2014 and 2035 using the statistical extrapolation and system dynamics (SD. It was evident that the simulated map in 2014 resulting from the SD yielded the highest accuracy. Therefore, this study applied the SD method to generate the land demand for simulating LULC in 2035. The outcome showed that urban occupied the land around a half of the BMR.

  9. Diffusion maps, clustering and fuzzy Markov modeling in peptide folding transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nedialkova, Lilia V.; Amat, Miguel A.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Hummer, Gerhard

    2014-01-01

    Using the helix-coil transitions of alanine pentapeptide as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the use of diffusion maps in the analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Diffusion maps and other nonlinear data-mining techniques provide powerful tools to visualize the distribution of structures in conformation space. The resulting low-dimensional representations help in partitioning conformation space, and in constructing Markov state models that capture the conformational dynamics. In an initial step, we use diffusion maps to reduce the dimensionality of the conformational dynamics of Ala5. The resulting pretreated data are then used in a clustering step. The identified clusters show excellent overlap with clusters obtained previously by using the backbone dihedral angles as input, with small—but nontrivial—differences reflecting torsional degrees of freedom ignored in the earlier approach. We then construct a Markov state model describing the conformational dynamics in terms of a discrete-time random walk between the clusters. We show that by combining fuzzy C-means clustering with a transition-based assignment of states, we can construct robust Markov state models. This state-assignment procedure suppresses short-time memory effects that result from the non-Markovianity of the dynamics projected onto the space of clusters. In a comparison with previous work, we demonstrate how manifold learning techniques may complement and enhance informed intuition commonly used to construct reduced descriptions of the dynamics in molecular conformation space

  10. A Multilayer Hidden Markov Models-Based Method for Human-Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongben Tao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To achieve Human-Robot Interaction (HRI by using gestures, a continuous gesture recognition approach based on Multilayer Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs is proposed, which consists of two parts. One part is gesture spotting and segment module, the other part is continuous gesture recognition module. Firstly, a Kinect sensor is used to capture 3D acceleration and 3D angular velocity data of hand gestures. And then, a Feed-forward Neural Networks (FNNs and a threshold criterion are used for gesture spotting and segment, respectively. Afterwards, the segmented gesture signals are respectively preprocessed and vector symbolized by a sliding window and a K-means clustering method. Finally, symbolized data are sent into Lower Hidden Markov Models (LHMMs to identify individual gestures, and then, a Bayesian filter with sequential constraints among gestures in Upper Hidden Markov Models (UHMMs is used to correct recognition errors created in LHMMs. Five predefined gestures are used to interact with a Kinect mobile robot in experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method not only has good effectiveness and accuracy, but also has favorable real-time performance.

  11. Diffusion maps, clustering and fuzzy Markov modeling in peptide folding transitions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nedialkova, Lilia V.; Amat, Miguel A. [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 (United States); Kevrekidis, Ioannis G., E-mail: yannis@princeton.edu, E-mail: gerhard.hummer@biophys.mpg.de [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering and Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 (United States); Hummer, Gerhard, E-mail: yannis@princeton.edu, E-mail: gerhard.hummer@biophys.mpg.de [Department of Theoretical Biophysics, Max Planck Institute of Biophysics, Max-von-Laue-Str. 3, 60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2014-09-21

    Using the helix-coil transitions of alanine pentapeptide as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the use of diffusion maps in the analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Diffusion maps and other nonlinear data-mining techniques provide powerful tools to visualize the distribution of structures in conformation space. The resulting low-dimensional representations help in partitioning conformation space, and in constructing Markov state models that capture the conformational dynamics. In an initial step, we use diffusion maps to reduce the dimensionality of the conformational dynamics of Ala5. The resulting pretreated data are then used in a clustering step. The identified clusters show excellent overlap with clusters obtained previously by using the backbone dihedral angles as input, with small—but nontrivial—differences reflecting torsional degrees of freedom ignored in the earlier approach. We then construct a Markov state model describing the conformational dynamics in terms of a discrete-time random walk between the clusters. We show that by combining fuzzy C-means clustering with a transition-based assignment of states, we can construct robust Markov state models. This state-assignment procedure suppresses short-time memory effects that result from the non-Markovianity of the dynamics projected onto the space of clusters. In a comparison with previous work, we demonstrate how manifold learning techniques may complement and enhance informed intuition commonly used to construct reduced descriptions of the dynamics in molecular conformation space.

  12. Study on the systematic approach of Markov modeling for dependability analysis of complex fault-tolerant features with voting logics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Kwang Seop; Kim, Dong Hoon; Kim, Chang Hwoi; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    The Markov analysis is a technique for modeling system state transitions and calculating the probability of reaching various system states. While it is a proper tool for modeling complex system designs involving timing, sequencing, repair, redundancy, and fault tolerance, as the complexity or size of the system increases, so does the number of states of interest, leading to difficulty in constructing and solving the Markov model. This paper introduces a systematic approach of Markov modeling to analyze the dependability of a complex fault-tolerant system. This method is based on the decomposition of the system into independent subsystem sets, and the system-level failure rate and the unavailability rate for the decomposed subsystems. A Markov model for the target system is easily constructed using the system-level failure and unavailability rates for the subsystems, which can be treated separately. This approach can decrease the number of states to consider simultaneously in the target system by building Markov models of the independent subsystems stage by stage, and results in an exact solution for the Markov model of the whole target system. To apply this method we construct a Markov model for the reactor protection system found in nuclear power plants, a system configured with four identical channels and various fault-tolerant architectures. The results show that the proposed method in this study treats the complex architecture of the system in an efficient manner using the merits of the Markov model, such as a time dependent analysis and a sequential process analysis. - Highlights: • Systematic approach of Markov modeling for system dependability analysis is proposed based on the independent subsystem set, its failure rate and unavailability rate. • As an application example, we construct the Markov model for the digital reactor protection system configured with four identical and independent channels, and various fault-tolerant architectures. • The

  13. Information-Theoretic Performance Analysis of Sensor Networks via Markov Modeling of Time Series Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue; Jha, Devesh K; Ray, Asok; Wettergren, Thomas A; Yue Li; Jha, Devesh K; Ray, Asok; Wettergren, Thomas A; Wettergren, Thomas A; Li, Yue; Ray, Asok; Jha, Devesh K

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents information-theoretic performance analysis of passive sensor networks for detection of moving targets. The proposed method falls largely under the category of data-level information fusion in sensor networks. To this end, a measure of information contribution for sensors is formulated in a symbolic dynamics framework. The network information state is approximately represented as the largest principal component of the time series collected across the network. To quantify each sensor's contribution for generation of the information content, Markov machine models as well as x-Markov (pronounced as cross-Markov) machine models, conditioned on the network information state, are constructed; the difference between the conditional entropies of these machines is then treated as an approximate measure of information contribution by the respective sensors. The x-Markov models represent the conditional temporal statistics given the network information state. The proposed method has been validated on experimental data collected from a local area network of passive sensors for target detection, where the statistical characteristics of environmental disturbances are similar to those of the target signal in the sense of time scale and texture. A distinctive feature of the proposed algorithm is that the network decisions are independent of the behavior and identity of the individual sensors, which is desirable from computational perspectives. Results are presented to demonstrate the proposed method's efficacy to correctly identify the presence of a target with very low false-alarm rates. The performance of the underlying algorithm is compared with that of a recent data-driven, feature-level information fusion algorithm. It is shown that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithm.

  14. Markov chain modeling of evolution of strains in reinforced concrete flexural beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anoop, M. B.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available From the analysis of experimentally observed variations in surface strains with loading in reinforced concrete beams, it is noted that there is a need to consider the evolution of strains (with loading as a stochastic process. Use of Markov Chains for modeling stochastic evolution of strains with loading in reinforced concrete flexural beams is studied in this paper. A simple, yet practically useful, bi-level homogeneous Gaussian Markov Chain (BLHGMC model is proposed for determining the state of strain in reinforced concrete beams. The BLHGMC model will be useful for predicting behavior/response of reinforced concrete beams leading to more rational design.A través del análisis de la evolución de la deformación superficial observada experimentalmente en vigas de hormigón armado al entrar en carga, se constata que dicho proceso debe considerarse estocástico. En este trabajo se estudia la utilización de cadenas de Markov para modelizar la evolución estocástica de la deformación de vigas flexotraccionadas. Se propone, para establecer el estado de deformación de estas, un modelo con distribución gaussiana tipo cadena de Markov homogénea de dos niveles (BLHGMC por sus siglas en inglés, cuyo empleo resulta sencillo y práctico. Se comprueba la utilidad del modelo BLHGMC para prever el comportamiento de estos elementos, lo que determina a su vez una mayor racionalidad a la hora de su cálculo y diseño

  15. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  16. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2017) 126: 33 ... ogy, climate change, glaciology and crop models in agriculture. Different ... In areas where local topography strongly influences precipitation .... (vii) cloud amount, (viii) cloud type and (ix) sun shine hours.

  17. An Expectation Maximization Algorithm to Model Failure Times by Continuous-Time Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qihong Duan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In many applications, the failure rate function may present a bathtub shape curve. In this paper, an expectation maximization algorithm is proposed to construct a suitable continuous-time Markov chain which models the failure time data by the first time reaching the absorbing state. Assume that a system is described by methods of supplementary variables, the device of stage, and so on. Given a data set, the maximum likelihood estimators of the initial distribution and the infinitesimal transition rates of the Markov chain can be obtained by our novel algorithm. Suppose that there are m transient states in the system and that there are n failure time data. The devised algorithm only needs to compute the exponential of m×m upper triangular matrices for O(nm2 times in each iteration. Finally, the algorithm is applied to two real data sets, which indicates the practicality and efficiency of our algorithm.

  18. Assessing type I error and power of multistate Markov models for panel data-A simulation study

    OpenAIRE

    Cassarly, Christy; Martin, Renee’ H.; Chimowitz, Marc; Peña, Edsel A.; Ramakrishnan, Viswanathan; Palesch, Yuko Y.

    2016-01-01

    Ordinal outcomes collected at multiple follow-up visits are common in clinical trials. Sometimes, one visit is chosen for the primary analysis and the scale is dichotomized amounting to loss of information. Multistate Markov models describe how a process moves between states over time. Here, simulation studies are performed to investigate the type I error and power characteristics of multistate Markov models for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions. The results suggest that ...

  19. A new Markov-chain-related statistical approach for modelling synthetic wind power time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesch, T; Hake, J F; Schröders, S; Allelein, H J

    2015-01-01

    The integration of rising shares of volatile wind power in the generation mix is a major challenge for the future energy system. To address the uncertainties involved in wind power generation, models analysing and simulating the stochastic nature of this energy source are becoming increasingly important. One statistical approach that has been frequently used in the literature is the Markov chain approach. Recently, the method was identified as being of limited use for generating wind time series with time steps shorter than 15–40 min as it is not capable of reproducing the autocorrelation characteristics accurately. This paper presents a new Markov-chain-related statistical approach that is capable of solving this problem by introducing a variable second lag. Furthermore, additional features are presented that allow for the further adjustment of the generated synthetic time series. The influences of the model parameter settings are examined by meaningful parameter variations. The suitability of the approach is demonstrated by an application analysis with the example of the wind feed-in in Germany. It shows that—in contrast to conventional Markov chain approaches—the generated synthetic time series do not systematically underestimate the required storage capacity to balance wind power fluctuation. (paper)

  20. Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. II. Application using molecular dynamics simulation and Markov modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Zheng; Lindner, Benjamin; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank; Smith, Jeremy C

    2013-11-07

    Neutron scattering experiments directly probe the dynamics of complex molecules on the sub pico- to microsecond time scales. However, the assignment of the relaxations seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements is difficult, since many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales. In an accompanying article, we present a theoretical approach to the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations with a Markov State Model (MSM) that permits the direct identification of structural transitions leading to each contributing relaxation process. Here, we demonstrate the use of the method by applying it to the configurational dynamics of the well-characterized alanine dipeptide. A practical procedure for deriving the MSM from an MD is introduced. The result is a 9-state MSM in the space of the backbone dihedral angles and the side-chain methyl group. The agreement between the quasielastic spectrum calculated directly from the atomic trajectories and that derived from the Markov state model is excellent. The dependence on the wavevector of the individual Markov processes is described. The procedure means that it is now practicable to interpret quasielastic scattering spectra in terms of well-defined intramolecular transitions with minimal a priori assumptions as to the nature of the dynamics taking place.

  1. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Pasmanter

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

  2. Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nonejad, Nima

    This paper details Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for analysis of unobserved component time series models using several economic data sets. PMCMC combines the particle filter with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Overall PMCMC provides a very compelling, computationally fast...... and efficient framework for estimation. These advantages are used to for instance estimate stochastic volatility models with leverage effect or with Student-t distributed errors. We also model changing time series characteristics of the US inflation rate by considering a heteroskedastic ARFIMA model where...

  3. Hidden Markov Models for Time Series An Introduction Using R

    CERN Document Server

    Zucchini, Walter

    2009-01-01

    Illustrates the flexibility of HMMs as general-purpose models for time series data. This work presents an overview of HMMs for analyzing time series data, from continuous-valued, circular, and multivariate series to binary data, bounded and unbounded counts and categorical observations.

  4. A Nonstationary Markov Model Detects Directional Evolution in Hymenopteran Morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2015-11-01

    Directional evolution has played an important role in shaping the morphological, ecological, and molecular diversity of life. However, standard substitution models assume stationarity of the evolutionary process over the time scale examined, thus impeding the study of directionality. Here we explore a simple, nonstationary model of evolution for discrete data, which assumes that the state frequencies at the root differ from the equilibrium frequencies of the homogeneous evolutionary process along the rest of the tree (i.e., the process is nonstationary, nonreversible, but homogeneous). Within this framework, we develop a Bayesian approach for testing directional versus stationary evolution using a reversible-jump algorithm. Simulations show that when only data from extant taxa are available, the success in inferring directionality is strongly dependent on the evolutionary rate, the shape of the tree, the relative branch lengths, and the number of taxa. Given suitable evolutionary rates (0.1-0.5 expected substitutions between root and tips), accounting for directionality improves tree inference and often allows correct rooting of the tree without the use of an outgroup. As an empirical test, we apply our method to study directional evolution in hymenopteran morphology. We focus on three character systems: wing veins, muscles, and sclerites. We find strong support for a trend toward loss of wing veins and muscles, while stationarity cannot be ruled out for sclerites. Adding fossil and time information in a total-evidence dating approach, we show that accounting for directionality results in more precise estimates not only of the ancestral state at the root of the tree, but also of the divergence times. Our model relaxes the assumption of stationarity and reversibility by adding a minimum of additional parameters, and is thus well suited to studying the nature of the evolutionary process in data sets of limited size, such as morphology and ecology. © The Author

  5. Sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo filter with simultaneous model selection for electrocardiogram signal modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edla, Shwetha; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia

    2012-01-01

    Constructing statistical models of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, whose parameters can be used for automated disease classification, is of great importance in precluding manual annotation and providing prompt diagnosis of cardiac diseases. ECG signals consist of several segments with different morphologies (namely the P wave, QRS complex and the T wave) in a single heart beat, which can vary across individuals and diseases. Also, existing statistical ECG models exhibit a reliance upon obtaining a priori information from the ECG data by using preprocessing algorithms to initialize the filter parameters, or to define the user-specified model parameters. In this paper, we propose an ECG modeling technique using the sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) filter that can perform simultaneous model selection, by adaptively choosing from different representations depending upon the nature of the data. Our results demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to track various types of ECG morphologies, including intermittently occurring ECG beats. In addition, we use the estimated model parameters as the feature set to classify between ECG signals with normal sinus rhythm and four different types of arrhythmia.

  6. Confluence reduction for Markov automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jaco; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2016-01-01

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. As expected, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of these models. We therefore introduce confluence reduction for Markov automata, a powerful reduction

  7. 2nd International Symposium on Semi-Markov Models : Theory and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Limnios, Nikolaos

    1999-01-01

    This book presents a selection of papers presented to the Second Inter­ national Symposium on Semi-Markov Models: Theory and Applications held in Compiegne (France) in December 1998. This international meeting had the same aim as the first one held in Brussels in 1984 : to make, fourteen years later, the state of the art in the field of semi-Markov processes and their applications, bring together researchers in this field and also to stimulate fruitful discussions. The set of the subjects of the papers presented in Compiegne has a lot of similarities with the preceding Symposium; this shows that the main fields of semi-Markov processes are now well established particularly for basic applications in Reliability and Maintenance, Biomedicine, Queue­ ing, Control processes and production. A growing field is the one of insurance and finance but this is not really a surprising fact as the problem of pricing derivative products represents now a crucial problem in economics and finance. For example, stochastic mode...

  8. Persistence and ergodicity of plant disease model with markov conversion and impulsive toxicant input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wencai; Li, Juan; Zhang, Tongqian; Meng, Xinzhu; Zhang, Tonghua

    2017-07-01

    Taking into account of both white and colored noises, a stochastic mathematical model with impulsive toxicant input is formulated. Based on this model, we investigate dynamics, such as the persistence and ergodicity, of plant infectious disease model with Markov conversion in a polluted environment. The thresholds of extinction and persistence in mean are obtained. By using Lyapunov functions, we prove that the system is ergodic and has a stationary distribution under certain sufficient conditions. Finally, numerical simulations are employed to illustrate our theoretical analysis.

  9. Optimization of hospital ward resources with patient relocation using Markov chain modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anders Reenberg; Nielsen, Bo Friis; Reinhardt, Line Blander

    2017-01-01

    available to the hospital. Patient flow is modeled using a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain and optimization is conducted using a local search heuristic. Our model accounts for patient relocation, which has not been done analytically in literature with similar scope. The study objective is to ensure...... are distributed. Furthermore, our heuristic is found to efficiently derive the optimal solution. Applying our model to the hospital case, we found that relocation of daily arrivals can be reduced by 11.7% by re-distributing beds that are already available to the hospital....

  10. Modeling Dyadic Processes Using Hidden Markov Models: A Time Series Approach to Mother-Infant Interactions during Infant Immunization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stifter, Cynthia A.; Rovine, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The focus of the present longitudinal study, to examine mother-infant interaction during the administration of immunizations at 2 and 6?months of age, used hidden Markov modelling, a time series approach that produces latent states to describe how mothers and infants work together to bring the infant to a soothed state. Results revealed a…

  11. An analytical study of various telecomminication networks using Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramakrishnan, M; Jayamani, E; Ezhumalai, P

    2015-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to examine issues relating to the performance of various Telecommunication networks, and applied queuing theory for better design and improved efficiency. Firstly, giving an analytical study of queues deals with quantifying the phenomenon of waiting lines using representative measures of performances, such as average queue length (on average number of customers in the queue), average waiting time in queue (on average time to wait) and average facility utilization (proportion of time the service facility is in use). In the second, using Matlab simulator, summarizes the finding of the investigations, from which and where we obtain results and describing methodology for a) compare the waiting time and average number of messages in the queue in M/M/1 and M/M/2 queues b) Compare the performance of M/M/1 and M/D/1 queues and study the effect of increasing the number of servers on the blocking probability M/M/k/k queue model. (paper)

  12. Spotting handwritten words and REGEX using a two stage BLSTM-HMM architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bideault, Gautier; Mioulet, Luc; Chatelain, Clément; Paquet, Thierry

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we propose a hybrid model for spotting words and regular expressions (REGEX) in handwritten documents. The model is made of the state-of-the-art BLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short Time Memory) neural network for recognizing and segmenting characters, coupled with a HMM to build line models able to spot the desired sequences. Experiments on the Rimes database show very promising results.

  13. Phase Transitions for Quantum XY-Model on the Cayley Tree of Order Three in Quantum Markov Chain Scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhamedov, Farrukh; Saburov, Mansoor

    2010-06-01

    In the present paper we study forward Quantum Markov Chains (QMC) defined on a Cayley tree. Using the tree structure of graphs, we give a construction of quantum Markov chains on a Cayley tree. By means of such constructions we prove the existence of a phase transition for the XY-model on a Cayley tree of order three in QMC scheme. By the phase transition we mean the existence of two distinct QMC for the given family of interaction operators {K }. (author)

  14. Availability Control for Means of Transport in Decisive Semi-Markov Models of Exploitation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migawa, Klaudiusz

    2012-12-01

    The issues presented in this research paper refer to problems connected with the control process for exploitation implemented in the complex systems of exploitation for technical objects. The article presents the description of the method concerning the control availability for technical objects (means of transport) on the basis of the mathematical model of the exploitation process with the implementation of the decisive processes by semi-Markov. The presented method means focused on the preparing the decisive for the exploitation process for technical objects (semi-Markov model) and after that specifying the best control strategy (optimal strategy) from among possible decisive variants in accordance with the approved criterion (criteria) of the activity evaluation of the system of exploitation for technical objects. In the presented method specifying the optimal strategy for control availability in the technical objects means a choice of a sequence of control decisions made in individual states of modelled exploitation process for which the function being a criterion of evaluation reaches the extreme value. In order to choose the optimal control strategy the implementation of the genetic algorithm was chosen. The opinions were presented on the example of the exploitation process of the means of transport implemented in the real system of the bus municipal transport. The model of the exploitation process for the means of transports was prepared on the basis of the results implemented in the real transport system. The mathematical model of the exploitation process was built taking into consideration the fact that the model of the process constitutes the homogenous semi-Markov process.

  15. Trans-dimensional matched-field geoacoustic inversion with hierarchical error models and interacting Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E

    2012-10-01

    This paper develops a trans-dimensional approach to matched-field geoacoustic inversion, including interacting Markov chains to improve efficiency and an autoregressive model to account for correlated errors. The trans-dimensional approach and hierarchical seabed model allows inversion without assuming any particular parametrization by relaxing model specification to a range of plausible seabed models (e.g., in this case, the number of sediment layers is an unknown parameter). Data errors are addressed by sampling statistical error-distribution parameters, including correlated errors (covariance), by applying a hierarchical autoregressive error model. The well-known difficulty of low acceptance rates for trans-dimensional jumps is addressed with interacting Markov chains, resulting in a substantial increase in efficiency. The trans-dimensional seabed model and the hierarchical error model relax the degree of prior assumptions required in the inversion, resulting in substantially improved (more realistic) uncertainty estimates and a more automated algorithm. In particular, the approach gives seabed parameter uncertainty estimates that account for uncertainty due to prior model choice (layering and data error statistics). The approach is applied to data measured on a vertical array in the Mediterranean Sea.

  16. Hidden markov model for the prediction of transmembrane proteins using MATLAB.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Navaneet; Shanker, Sudhanshu; Singh, Vinay Kumar; Sinha, Dhiraj; Pandey, Paras Nath

    2011-01-01

    Since membranous proteins play a key role in drug targeting therefore transmembrane proteins prediction is active and challenging area of biological sciences. Location based prediction of transmembrane proteins are significant for functional annotation of protein sequences. Hidden markov model based method was widely applied for transmembrane topology prediction. Here we have presented a revised and a better understanding model than an existing one for transmembrane protein prediction. Scripting on MATLAB was built and compiled for parameter estimation of model and applied this model on amino acid sequence to know the transmembrane and its adjacent locations. Estimated model of transmembrane topology was based on TMHMM model architecture. Only 7 super states are defined in the given dataset, which were converted to 96 states on the basis of their length in sequence. Accuracy of the prediction of model was observed about 74 %, is a good enough in the area of transmembrane topology prediction. Therefore we have concluded the hidden markov model plays crucial role in transmembrane helices prediction on MATLAB platform and it could also be useful for drug discovery strategy. The database is available for free at bioinfonavneet@gmail.comvinaysingh@bhu.ac.in.

  17. Hidden Markov Model-based Pedestrian Navigation System using MEMS Inertial Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Yingjun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a foot-mounted pedestrian navigation system using MEMS inertial sensors is implemented, where the zero-velocity detection is abstracted into a hidden Markov model with 4 states and 15 observations. Moreover, an observations extraction algorithm has been developed to extract observations from sensor outputs; sample sets are used to train and optimize the model parameters by the Baum-Welch algorithm. Finally, a navigation system is developed, and the performance of the pedestrian navigation system is evaluated using indoor and outdoor field tests, and the results show that position error is less than 3% of total distance travelled.

  18. Markov model of the loan portfolio dynamics considering influence of management and external economic factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozhalkina, Yana; Timofeeva, Galina

    2016-12-01

    Mathematical model of loan portfolio in the form of a controlled Markov chain with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that coefficients of migration matrix depend on corrective actions and external factors. Corrective actions include process of receiving applications, interaction with existing solvent and insolvent clients. External factors are macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and unemployment rates, exchange rates, consumer price indices, etc. Changes in corrective actions adjust the intensity of transitions in the migration matrix. The mathematical model for forecasting the credit portfolio structure taking into account a cumulative impact of internal and external changes is obtained.

  19. [Succession caused by beaver (Castor fiber L.) life activity: II. A refined Markov model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logofet; Evstigneev, O I; Aleinikov, A A; Morozova, A O

    2015-01-01

    The refined Markov model of cyclic zoogenic successions caused by beaver (Castor fiber L.) life activity represents a discrete chain of the following six states: flooded forest, swamped forest, pond, grassy swamp, shrubby swamp, and wet forest, which correspond to certain stages of succession. Those stages are defined, and a conceptual scheme of probable transitions between them for one time step is constructed from the knowledge of beaver behaviour in small river floodplains of "Bryanskii Les" Reserve. We calibrated the corresponding matrix of transition probabilities according to the optimization principle: minimizing differences between the model outcome and reality; the model generates a distribution of relative areas corresponding to the stages of succession, that has to be compared to those gained from case studies in the Reserve during 2002-2006. The time step is chosen to equal 2 years, and the first-step data in the sum of differences are given various weights, w (between 0 and 1). The value of w = 0.2 is selected due to its optimality and for some additional reasons. By the formulae of finite homogeneous Markov chain theory, we obtained the main results of the calibrated model, namely, a steady-state distribution of stage areas, indexes of cyclicity, and the mean durations (M(j)) of succession stages. The results of calibration give an objective quantitative nature to the expert knowledge of the course of succession and get a proper interpretation. The 2010 data, which are not involved in the calibration procedure, enabled assessing the quality of prediction by the homogeneous model in short-term (from the 2006 situation): the error of model area distribution relative to the distribution observed in 2010 falls into the range of 9-17%, the best prognosis being given by the least optimal matrices (rejected values of w). This indicates a formally heterogeneous nature of succession processes in time. Thus, the refined version of the homogeneous Markov chain

  20. Mixture estimation with state-space components and Markov model of switching

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nagy, Ivan; Suzdaleva, Evgenia

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 24 (2013), s. 9970-9984 ISSN 0307-904X R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA01030123 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : probabilistic dynamic mixtures, * probability density function * state-space models * recursive mixture estimation * Bayesian dynamic decision making under uncertainty * Kerridge inaccuracy Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 2.158, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/nagy-mixture estimation with state-space components and markov model of switching.pdf

  1. Independencies Induced from a Graphical Markov Model After Marginalization and Conditioning: The R Package ggm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni M. Marchetti

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available We describe some functions in the R package ggm to derive from a given Markov model, represented by a directed acyclic graph, different types of graphs induced after marginalizing over and conditioning on some of the variables. The package has a few basic functions that find the essential graph, the induced concentration and covariance graphs, and several types of chain graphs implied by the directed acyclic graph (DAG after grouping and reordering the variables. These functions can be useful to explore the impact of latent variables or of selection effects on a chosen data generating model.

  2. Markov Chain-Based Stochastic Modeling of Chloride Ion Transport in Concrete Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in models for the evaluation and prediction of the condition of bridges in Canada due to their large number in an advanced state of deterioration. The models are used to develop optimal maintenance and replacement strategies to extend service life and optimally allocate financial and technical resources. The main process of deterioration of concrete bridges in Canada is corrosion of the reinforcing steel due to the widespread use of de-icing salts. In this article, numerical models of the diffusion process and chemical reactions of chloride ions in concrete are used to estimate the time to initiation of corrosion and for the progression of corrosion. The analyses are performed for a range of typical concrete properties, exposure and climatic conditions. The results from these simulations are used to develop parametric surrogate Markov chain models of increasing states of deterioration. The surrogate models are more efficient than physical models for the portfolio analysis of a large number of structures. The procedure provides an alternative to Markov models derived from condition ratings when historical inspection data is limited.

  3. A joint logistic regression and covariate-adjusted continuous-time Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Maria Laura; Chan, Wenyaw; Yamal, Jose-Miguel; Robertson, Claudia Sue

    2017-12-10

    The use of longitudinal measurements to predict a categorical outcome is an increasingly common goal in research studies. Joint models are commonly used to describe two or more models simultaneously by considering the correlated nature of their outcomes and the random error present in the longitudinal measurements. However, there is limited research on joint models with longitudinal predictors and categorical cross-sectional outcomes. Perhaps the most challenging task is how to model the longitudinal predictor process such that it represents the true biological mechanism that dictates the association with the categorical response. We propose a joint logistic regression and Markov chain model to describe a binary cross-sectional response, where the unobserved transition rates of a two-state continuous-time Markov chain are included as covariates. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of our model. In a simulation study, coverage probabilities of about 95%, standard deviations close to standard errors, and low biases for the parameter values show that our estimation method is adequate. We apply the proposed joint model to a dataset of patients with traumatic brain injury to describe and predict a 6-month outcome based on physiological data collected post-injury and admission characteristics. Our analysis indicates that the information provided by physiological changes over time may help improve prediction of long-term functional status of these severely ill subjects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. A multiple shock model for common cause failures using discrete Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Dae Wook; Kang, Chang Soon

    1992-01-01

    The most widely used models in common cause analysis are (single) shock models such as the BFR, and the MFR. But, single shock model can not treat the individual common cause separately and has some irrational assumptions. Multiple shock model for common cause failures is developed using Markov chain theory. This model treats each common cause shock as separately and sequently occuring event to implicate the change in failure probability distribution due to each common cause shock. The final failure probability distribution is evaluated and compared with that from the BFR model. The results show that multiple shock model which minimizes the assumptions in the BFR model is more realistic and conservative than the BFR model. The further work for application is the estimations of parameters such as common cause shock rate and component failure probability given a shock,p, through the data analysis

  5. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. I. Biological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    that really uses all these methodological improvements. In this paper, the biological model describing the performance and feed intake of sows is presented. In particular, estimation of herd specific parameters is emphasized. The optimization model is described in a subsequent paper......Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological...... improvements like multi-level hierarchical Markov processes with decisions on multiple time scales, efficient methods for parameter estimations at herd level and standard software that has been hardly implemented at all in any replacement model. The aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model...

  6. A Mixture Model and a Hidden Markov Model to Simultaneously Detect Recombination Breakpoints and Reconstruct Phylogenies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bastien Boussau

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Homologous recombination is a pervasive biological process that affects sequences in all living organisms and viruses. In the presence of recombination, the evolutionary history of an alignment of homologous sequences cannot be properly depicted by a single bifurcating tree: some sites have evolved along a specific phylogenetic tree, others have followed another path. Methods available to analyse recombination in sequences usually involve an analysis of the alignment through sliding-windows, or are particularly demanding in computational resources, and are often limited to nucleotide sequences. In this article, we propose and implement a Mixture Model on trees and a phylogenetic Hidden Markov Model to reveal recombination breakpoints while searching for the various evolutionary histories that are present in an alignment known to have undergone homologous recombination. These models are sufficiently efficient to be applied to dozens of sequences on a single desktop computer, and can handle equivalently nucleotide or protein sequences. We estimate their accuracy on simulated sequences and test them on real data.

  7. A Mixture Model and a Hidden Markov Model to Simultaneously Detect Recombination Breakpoints and Reconstruct Phylogenies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bastien Boussau

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Homologous recombination is a pervasive biological process that affects sequences in all living organisms and viruses. In the presence of recombination, the evolutionary history of an alignment of homologous sequences cannot be properly depicted by a single bifurcating tree: some sites have evolved along a specific phylogenetic tree, others have followed another path. Methods available to analyse recombination in sequences usually involve an analysis of the alignment through sliding-windows, or are particularly demanding in computational resources, and are often limited to nucleotide sequences. In this article, we propose and implement a Mixture Model on trees and a phylogenetic Hidden Markov Model to reveal recombination breakpoints while searching for the various evolutionary histories that are present in an alignment known to have undergone homologous recombination. These models are sufficiently efficient to be applied to dozens of sequences on a single desktop computer, and can handle equivalently nucleotide or protein sequences. We estimate their accuracy on simulated sequences and test them on real data.

  8. Utilization of two web-based continuing education courses evaluated by Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hao; Lin, Jin-Mann S; Reeves, William C

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate the web structure of two web-based continuing education courses, identify problems and assess the effects of web site modifications. Markov chain models were built from 2008 web usage data to evaluate the courses' web structure and navigation patterns. The web site was then modified to resolve identified design issues and the improvement in user activity over the subsequent 12 months was quantitatively evaluated. Web navigation paths were collected between 2008 and 2010. The probability of navigating from one web page to another was analyzed. The continuing education courses' sequential structure design was clearly reflected in the resulting actual web usage models, and none of the skip transitions provided was heavily used. The web navigation patterns of the two different continuing education courses were similar. Two possible design flaws were identified and fixed in only one of the two courses. Over the following 12 months, the drop-out rate in the modified course significantly decreased from 41% to 35%, but remained unchanged in the unmodified course. The web improvement effects were further verified via a second-order Markov chain model. The results imply that differences in web content have less impact than web structure design on how learners navigate through continuing education courses. Evaluation of user navigation can help identify web design flaws and guide modifications. This study showed that Markov chain models provide a valuable tool to evaluate web-based education courses. Both the results and techniques in this study would be very useful for public health education and research specialists.

  9. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COOPER, J. ARLIN

    1999-01-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  10. Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua

    2013-06-15

    Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Zero velocity interval detection based on a continuous hidden Markov model in micro inertial pedestrian navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wei; Ding, Wei; Yan, Huifang; Duan, Shunli

    2018-06-01

    Shoe-mounted pedestrian navigation systems based on micro inertial sensors rely on zero velocity updates to correct their positioning errors in time, which effectively makes determining the zero velocity interval play a key role during normal walking. However, as walking gaits are complicated, and vary from person to person, it is difficult to detect walking gaits with a fixed threshold method. This paper proposes a pedestrian gait classification method based on a hidden Markov model. Pedestrian gait data are collected with a micro inertial measurement unit installed at the instep. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of the pedestrian walk, a single direction angular rate gyro output is used to classify gait features. The angular rate data are modeled into a univariate Gaussian mixture model with three components, and a four-state left–right continuous hidden Markov model (CHMM) is designed to classify the normal walking gait. The model parameters are trained and optimized using the Baum–Welch algorithm and then the sliding window Viterbi algorithm is used to decode the gait. Walking data are collected through eight subjects walking along the same route at three different speeds; the leave-one-subject-out cross validation method is conducted to test the model. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can accurately detect different walking gaits of zero velocity interval. The location experiment shows that the precision of CHMM-based pedestrian navigation improved by 40% when compared to the angular rate threshold method.

  12. Development of Markov model of emergency diesel generator for dynamic reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Young Ho; Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    The EDG (Emergency Diesal Generator) of nuclear power plant is one of the most important equipments in mitigating accidents. The FT (Fault Tree) method is widely used to assess the reliability of safety systems like an EDG in nuclear power plant. This method, however, has limitations in modeling dynamic features of safety systems exactly. We, hence, have developed a Markov model to represent the stochastic process of dynamic systems whose states change as time moves on. The Markov model enables us to develop a dynamic reliability model of EDG. This model can represent all possible states of EDG comparing to the FRANTIC code developed by U.S. NRC for the reliability analysis of standby systems. to access the regulation policy for test interval, we performed two simulations based on the generic data and plant specific data of YGN 3, respectively by using the developed model. We also estimate the effects of various repair rates and the fractions of starting failures by demand shock to the reliability of EDG. And finally, Aging effect is analyzed. (author). 23 refs., 19 figs., 9 tabs.

  13. biomvRhsmm: Genomic Segmentation with Hidden Semi-Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Du

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available High-throughput technologies like tiling array and next-generation sequencing (NGS generate continuous homogeneous segments or signal peaks in the genome that represent transcripts and transcript variants (transcript mapping and quantification, regions of deletion and amplification (copy number variation, or regions characterized by particular common features like chromatin state or DNA methylation ratio (epigenetic modifications. However, the volume and output of data produced by these technologies present challenges in analysis. Here, a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM is implemented and tailored to handle multiple genomic profile, to better facilitate genome annotation by assisting in the detection of transcripts, regulatory regions, and copy number variation by holistic microarray or NGS. With support for various data distributions, instead of limiting itself to one specific application, the proposed hidden semi-Markov model is designed to allow modeling options to accommodate different types of genomic data and to serve as a general segmentation engine. By incorporating genomic positions into the sojourn distribution of HSMM, with optional prior learning using annotation or previous studies, the modeling output is more biologically sensible. The proposed model has been compared with several other state-of-the-art segmentation models through simulation benchmarking, which shows that our efficient implementation achieves comparable or better sensitivity and specificity in genomic segmentation.

  14. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  15. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Permana, Dony, E-mail: donypermana@students.itb.ac.id [Statistics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia and Statistics Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Padang State University (Indonesia); Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S. [Statistics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bandung Institute of Technology (Indonesia)

    2014-03-24

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  16. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-01-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time

  17. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan B. Djordjevic

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i Markovian classical model, (ii Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage Markov chain-like models of aging, which

  18. Process Algebra and Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  19. Process algebra and Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, J.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  20. Anomalous transport in disordered fracture networks: Spatial Markov model for dispersion with variable injection modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Peter K.; Dentz, Marco; Le Borgne, Tanguy; Lee, Seunghak; Juanes, Ruben

    2017-08-01

    We investigate tracer transport on random discrete fracture networks that are characterized by the statistics of the fracture geometry and hydraulic conductivity. While it is well known that tracer transport through fractured media can be anomalous and particle injection modes can have major impact on dispersion, the incorporation of injection modes into effective transport modeling has remained an open issue. The fundamental reason behind this challenge is that-even if the Eulerian fluid velocity is steady-the Lagrangian velocity distribution experienced by tracer particles evolves with time from its initial distribution, which is dictated by the injection mode, to a stationary velocity distribution. We quantify this evolution by a Markov model for particle velocities that are equidistantly sampled along trajectories. This stochastic approach allows for the systematic incorporation of the initial velocity distribution and quantifies the interplay between velocity distribution and spatial and temporal correlation. The proposed spatial Markov model is characterized by the initial velocity distribution, which is determined by the particle injection mode, the stationary Lagrangian velocity distribution, which is derived from the Eulerian velocity distribution, and the spatial velocity correlation length, which is related to the characteristic fracture length. This effective model leads to a time-domain random walk for the evolution of particle positions and velocities, whose joint distribution follows a Boltzmann equation. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed model can successfully predict anomalous transport through discrete fracture networks with different levels of heterogeneity and arbitrary tracer injection modes.

  1. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

    2017-07-01

    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  2. Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based On Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widodo Soetjipto Jojok

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia’s Bridge Management System (I-BMS has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD. System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.

  3. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martini, Johannes W. R.; Habeck, Michael

    2015-01-01

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest

  4. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martini, Johannes W. R., E-mail: jmartin2@gwdg.de [Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology, Tübingen (Germany); Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Habeck, Michael, E-mail: mhabeck@gwdg.de [Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Göttingen (Germany)

    2015-03-07

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest.

  5. Multilayer Markov Random Field models for change detection in optical remote sensing images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedek, Csaba; Shadaydeh, Maha; Kato, Zoltan; Szirányi, Tamás; Zerubia, Josiane

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, we give a comparative study on three Multilayer Markov Random Field (MRF) based solutions proposed for change detection in optical remote sensing images, called Multicue MRF, Conditional Mixed Markov model, and Fusion MRF. Our purposes are twofold. On one hand, we highlight the significance of the focused model family and we set them against various state-of-the-art approaches through a thematic analysis and quantitative tests. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of class comparison vs. direct approaches, usage of training data, various targeted application fields and different ways of Ground Truth generation, meantime informing the Reader in which roles the Multilayer MRFs can be efficiently applied. On the other hand we also emphasize the differences between the three focused models at various levels, considering the model structures, feature extraction, layer interpretation, change concept definition, parameter tuning and performance. We provide qualitative and quantitative comparison results using principally a publicly available change detection database which contains aerial image pairs and Ground Truth change masks. We conclude that the discussed models are competitive against alternative state-of-the-art solutions, if one uses them as pre-processing filters in multitemporal optical image analysis. In addition, they cover together a large range of applications, considering the different usage options of the three approaches.

  6. Hidden Markov Model of atomic quantum jump dynamics in an optically probed cavity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gammelmark, S.; Molmer, K.; Alt, W.

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the quantum jumps of an atom interacting with a cavity field. The strong atom- field interaction makes the cavity transmission depend on the time dependent atomic state, and we present a Hidden Markov Model description of the atomic state dynamics which is conditioned in a Bayesian...... manner on the detected signal. We suggest that small variations in the observed signal may be due to spatial motion of the atom within the cavity, and we represent the atomic system by a number of hidden states to account for both the small variations and the internal state jump dynamics. In our theory...

  7. A comparison study of support vector machines and hidden Markov models in machinery condition monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miao, Qiang; Huang, Hong Zhong; Fan, Xianfeng

    2007-01-01

    Condition classification is an important step in machinery fault detection, which is a problem of pattern recognition. Currently, there are a lot of techniques in this area and the purpose of this paper is to investigate two popular recognition techniques, namely hidden Markov model and support vector machine. At the beginning, we briefly introduced the procedure of feature extraction and the theoretical background of this paper. The comparison experiment was conducted for gearbox fault detection and the analysis results from this work showed that support vector machine has better classification performance in this area

  8. High-throughput detection of prostate cancer in histological sections using probabilistic pairwise Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, James P; Tomaszewski, John E; Feldman, Michael D; Hagemann, Ian; Moradi, Mehdi; Mousavi, Parvin; Boag, Alexander; Davidson, Chris; Abolmaesumi, Purang; Madabhushi, Anant

    2010-08-01

    In this paper we present a high-throughput system for detecting regions of carcinoma of the prostate (CaP) in HSs from radical prostatectomies (RPs) using probabilistic pairwise Markov models (PPMMs), a novel type of Markov random field (MRF). At diagnostic resolution a digitized HS can contain 80Kx70K pixels - far too many for current automated Gleason grading algorithms to process. However, grading can be separated into two distinct steps: (1) detecting cancerous regions and (2) then grading these regions. The detection step does not require diagnostic resolution and can be performed much more quickly. Thus, we introduce a CaP detection system capable of analyzing an entire digitized whole-mount HS (2x1.75cm(2)) in under three minutes (on a desktop computer) while achieving a CaP detection sensitivity and specificity of 0.87 and 0.90, respectively. We obtain this high-throughput by tailoring the system to analyze the HSs at low resolution (8microm per pixel). This motivates the following algorithm: (Step 1) glands are segmented, (Step 2) the segmented glands are classified as malignant or benign, and (Step 3) the malignant glands are consolidated into continuous regions. The classification of individual glands leverages two features: gland size and the tendency for proximate glands to share the same class. The latter feature describes a spatial dependency which we model using a Markov prior. Typically, Markov priors are expressed as the product of potential functions. Unfortunately, potential functions are mathematical abstractions, and constructing priors through their selection becomes an ad hoc procedure, resulting in simplistic models such as the Potts. Addressing this problem, we introduce PPMMs which formulate priors in terms of probability density functions, allowing the creation of more sophisticated models. To demonstrate the efficacy of our CaP detection system and assess the advantages of using a PPMM prior instead of the Potts, we alternately

  9. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  10. A descriptive model of resting-state networks using Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, H; Pal, R; Mitra, S

    2016-08-01

    Resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) studies considering pairwise linear correlations have attracted great interests while the underlying functional network structure still remains poorly understood. To further our understanding of RSFC, this paper presents an analysis of the resting-state networks (RSNs) based on the steady-state distributions and provides a novel angle to investigate the RSFC of multiple functional nodes. This paper evaluates the consistency of two networks based on the Hellinger distance between the steady-state distributions of the inferred Markov chain models. The results show that generated steady-state distributions of default mode network have higher consistency across subjects than random nodes from various RSNs.

  11. Multi-state Markov model for disability: A case of Malaysia Social Security (SOCSO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsuddin, Shamshimah; Ismail, Noriszura

    2016-06-01

    Studies of SOCSO's contributor outcomes like disability are usually restricted to a single outcome. In this respect, the study has focused on the approach of multi-state Markov model for estimating the transition probabilities among SOCSO's contributor in Malaysia between states: work, temporary disability, permanent disability and death at yearly intervals on age, gender, year and disability category; ignoring duration and past disability experience which is not consider of how or when someone arrived in that category. These outcomes represent different states which depend on health status among the workers.

  12. Memetic Approaches for Optimizing Hidden Markov Models: A Case Study in Time Series Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Lam Thu; Barlow, Michael

    We propose a methodology for employing memetics (local search) within the framework of evolutionary algorithms to optimize parameters of hidden markov models. With this proposal, the rate and frequency of using local search are automatically changed over time either at a population or individual level. At the population level, we allow the rate of using local search to decay over time to zero (at the final generation). At the individual level, each individual is equipped with information of when it will do local search and for how long. This information evolves over time alongside the main elements of the chromosome representing the individual.

  13. A Hidden Markov Model for Analysis of Frontline Veterinary Data for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Colin; Sawford, Kate; Gunawardana, Walimunige S. N.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Nathoo, Farouk; Stephen, Craig

    2011-01-01

    Surveillance systems tracking health patterns in animals have potential for early warning of infectious disease in humans, yet there are many challenges that remain before this can be realized. Specifically, there remains the challenge of detecting early warning signals for diseases that are not known or are not part of routine surveillance for named diseases. This paper reports on the development of a hidden Markov model for analysis of frontline veterinary sentinel surveillance data from Sri Lanka. Field veterinarians collected data on syndromes and diagnoses using mobile phones. A model for submission patterns accounts for both sentinel-related and disease-related variability. Models for commonly reported cattle diagnoses were estimated separately. Region-specific weekly average prevalence was estimated for each diagnoses and partitioned into normal and abnormal periods. Visualization of state probabilities was used to indicate areas and times of unusual disease prevalence. The analysis suggests that hidden Markov modelling is a useful approach for surveillance datasets from novel populations and/or having little historical baselines. PMID:21949763

  14. Predicting Urban Medical Services Demand in China: An Improved Grey Markov Chain Model by Taylor Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jinli; Jiao, Feng; Zhang, Qishan; Lin, Zhibin

    2017-08-06

    The sharp increase of the aging population has raised the pressure on the current limited medical resources in China. To better allocate resources, a more accurate prediction on medical service demand is very urgently needed. This study aims to improve the prediction on medical services demand in China. To achieve this aim, the study combines Taylor Approximation into the Grey Markov Chain model, and develops a new model named Taylor-Markov Chain GM (1,1) (T-MCGM (1,1)). The new model has been tested by adopting the historical data, which includes the medical service on treatment of diabetes, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease from 1997 to 2015 in China. The model provides a predication on medical service demand of these three types of disease up to 2022. The results reveal an enormous growth of urban medical service demand in the future. The findings provide practical implications for the Health Administrative Department to allocate medical resources, and help hospitals to manage investments on medical facilities.

  15. A Fresh Perspective on a Familiar Problem: Examining Disparities in Knee Osteoarthritis Using a Markov Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmarkar, Taruja D; Maurer, Anne; Parks, Michael L; Mason, Thomas; Bejinez-Eastman, Ana; Harrington, Melvyn; Morgan, Randall; O'Connor, Mary I; Wood, James E; Gaskin, Darrell J

    2017-12-01

    Disparities in the presentation of knee osteoarthritis (OA) and in the utilization of treatment across sex, racial, and ethnic groups in the United States are well documented. We used a Markov model to calculate lifetime costs of knee OA treatment. We then used the model results to compute costs of disparities in treatment by race, ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic status. We used the literature to construct a Markov Model of knee OA and publicly available data to create the model parameters and patient populations of interest. An expert panel of physicians, who treated a large number of patients with knee OA, constructed treatment pathways. Direct costs were based on the literature and indirect costs were derived from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We found that failing to obtain effective treatment increased costs and limited benefits for all groups. Delaying treatment imposed a greater cost across all groups and decreased benefits. Lost income because of lower labor market productivity comprised a substantial proportion of the lifetime costs of knee OA. Population simulations demonstrated that as the diversity of the US population increases, the societal costs of racial and ethnic disparities in treatment utilization for knee OA will increase. Our results show that disparities in treatment of knee OA are costly. All stakeholders involved in treatment decisions for knee OA patients should consider costs associated with delaying and forgoing treatment, especially for disadvantaged populations. Such decisions may lead to higher costs and worse health outcomes.

  16. Combining experimental and simulation data of molecular processes via augmented Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Simon; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Clementi, Cecilia; Noé, Frank

    2017-08-01

    Accurate mechanistic description of structural changes in biomolecules is an increasingly important topic in structural and chemical biology. Markov models have emerged as a powerful way to approximate the molecular kinetics of large biomolecules while keeping full structural resolution in a divide-and-conquer fashion. However, the accuracy of these models is limited by that of the force fields used to generate the underlying molecular dynamics (MD) simulation data. Whereas the quality of classical MD force fields has improved significantly in recent years, remaining errors in the Boltzmann weights are still on the order of a few [Formula: see text], which may lead to significant discrepancies when comparing to experimentally measured rates or state populations. Here we take the view that simulations using a sufficiently good force-field sample conformations that are valid but have inaccurate weights, yet these weights may be made accurate by incorporating experimental data a posteriori. To do so, we propose augmented Markov models (AMMs), an approach that combines concepts from probability theory and information theory to consistently treat systematic force-field error and statistical errors in simulation and experiment. Our results demonstrate that AMMs can reconcile conflicting results for protein mechanisms obtained by different force fields and correct for a wide range of stationary and dynamical observables even when only equilibrium measurements are incorporated into the estimation process. This approach constitutes a unique avenue to combine experiment and computation into integrative models of biomolecular structure and dynamics.

  17. Segmenting Continuous Motions with Hidden Semi-markov Models and Gaussian Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoaki Nakamura

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Humans divide perceived continuous information into segments to facilitate recognition. For example, humans can segment speech waves into recognizable morphemes. Analogously, continuous motions are segmented into recognizable unit actions. People can divide continuous information into segments without using explicit segment points. This capacity for unsupervised segmentation is also useful for robots, because it enables them to flexibly learn languages, gestures, and actions. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process-hidden semi-Markov model (GP-HSMM that can divide continuous time series data into segments in an unsupervised manner. Our proposed method consists of a generative model based on the hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM, the emission distributions of which are Gaussian processes (GPs. Continuous time series data is generated by connecting segments generated by the GP. Segmentation can be achieved by using forward filtering-backward sampling to estimate the model's parameters, including the lengths and classes of the segments. In an experiment using the CMU motion capture dataset, we tested GP-HSMM with motion capture data containing simple exercise motions; the results of this experiment showed that the proposed GP-HSMM was comparable with other methods. We also conducted an experiment using karate motion capture data, which is more complex than exercise motion capture data; in this experiment, the segmentation accuracy of GP-HSMM was 0.92, which outperformed other methods.

  18. Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H

    2015-01-01

    With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden ("general" emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters.

  19. Analyzing Taiwan IC Assembly Industry by Grey-Markov Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei-Chuan Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study utilizes the black swan theorem to discuss how to face the lack of historical data and outliers. They may cause huge influences which make it impossible for people to predict the economy from their knowledge or experiences. Meanwhile, they cause the general dilemma of which prediction tool to be used which is also considered in this study. For the reason above, this study uses 2009 Q1 to 2010 Q4 quarterly revenue trend of Taiwan’s semiconductor packaging and testing industry under the global financial turmoil as basis and the grey prediction method to deal with nonlinear problems and small data. Under the lack of information and economic drastic changes, this study applies Markov model to predict the industry revenues of GM(1,1 and DGM(1,1 results. The results show that the accuracy of 2010 Q1–Q3 is 88.37%, 90.27%, sand 91.13%, respectively. Besides, they are better than the results of GM(1,1 and DGM(1,1 which are 86.51%, 77.35%, 75.46% and 73.77%, 74.25%, 59.72%. The results show that the prediction ability of the grey prediction with Markov model is better than traditional GM(1,1 and DGM(1,1 sfacing the changes of financial crisis. The results also prove that the grey-Markov chain prediction can be the perfect criterion for decision-makers judgment even when the environment has undergone drastic changes which bring the impact of unpredictable conditions.

  20. Master equation for She-Leveque scaling and its classification in terms of other Markov models of developed turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickelsen, Daniel

    2017-07-01

    The statistics of velocity increments in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence exhibit universal features in the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers. After Kolmogorov’s scaling law from 1941, many turbulence models aim for capturing these universal features, some are known to have an equivalent formulation in terms of Markov processes. We derive the Markov process equivalent to the particularly successful scaling law postulated by She and Leveque. The Markov process is a jump process for velocity increments u(r) in scale r in which the jumps occur randomly but with deterministic width in u. From its master equation we establish a prescription to simulate the She-Leveque process and compare it with Kolmogorov scaling. To put the She-Leveque process into the context of other established turbulence models on the Markov level, we derive a diffusion process for u(r) using two properties of the Navier-Stokes equation. This diffusion process already includes Kolmogorov scaling, extended self-similarity and a class of random cascade models. The fluctuation theorem of this Markov process implies a ‘second law’ that puts a loose bound on the multipliers of the random cascade models. This bound explicitly allows for instances of inverse cascades, which are necessary to satisfy the fluctuation theorem. By adding a jump process to the diffusion process, we go beyond Kolmogorov scaling and formulate the most general scaling law for the class of Markov processes having both diffusion and jump parts. This Markov scaling law includes She-Leveque scaling and a scaling law derived by Yakhot.

  1. Nonparametric estimation of transition probabilities in the non-Markov illness-death model: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo; Meira-Machado, Luís

    2015-06-01

    Multi-state models are often used for modeling complex event history data. In these models the estimation of the transition probabilities is of particular interest, since they allow for long-term predictions of the process. These quantities have been traditionally estimated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator, which is consistent if the process is Markov. Several non-Markov estimators have been proposed in the recent literature, and their superiority with respect to the Aalen-Johansen estimator has been proved in situations in which the Markov condition is strongly violated. However, the existing estimators have the drawback of requiring that the support of the censoring distribution contains the support of the lifetime distribution, which is not often the case. In this article, we propose two new methods for estimating the transition probabilities in the progressive illness-death model. Some asymptotic results are derived. The proposed estimators are consistent regardless the Markov condition and the referred assumption about the censoring support. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The main conclusion of this piece of research is that the proposed estimators are much more efficient than the existing non-Markov estimators in most cases. An application to a clinical trial on colon cancer is included. Extensions to progressive processes beyond the three-state illness-death model are discussed. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  2. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL INITIATION OF PROJECT IN A FORM OF MARKOV CHAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Вікторівна КОЛЕСНІКОВА

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The model of the initiation of projects which reproduces a fragment of the general scheme of interaction between the main entities in the project initiation phase is created. Determined that the project initiation through communication links between the four main entities: projects team, environment, the project itself and the customer. The result of the initiation of projects in the emerging communications referred to objects in the design phase through consistency requirements of stakeholders and the adoption of the basic concepts of projects, goal-projects, project planning, evaluation requirements of specialization and competence required for the formation of the project team. This Markov chain is part of the control circuit that includes elements such as the temporary organizational structure of the project design, project team, customer, and environment project. It is shown that the Markov model of interaction between project participants in their initiation phase, taking into account the role of a key player in the project ‑ the customer can determine changes of state and generate recommendations for initiating projects. Results of the study can serve as a basis for creating models of control objects that contain its organizational structure and reflect the parametric properties of the system to obtain information needed for decision making to initiate projects

  3. Hidden Markov Item Response Theory Models for Responses and Response Times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Dylan; Oberski, Daniel; Vermunt, Jeroen; De Boeck, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Current approaches to model responses and response times to psychometric tests solely focus on between-subject differences in speed and ability. Within subjects, speed and ability are assumed to be constants. Violations of this assumption are generally absorbed in the residual of the model. As a result, within-subject departures from the between-subject speed and ability level remain undetected. These departures may be of interest to the researcher as they reflect differences in the response processes adopted on the items of a test. In this article, we propose a dynamic approach for responses and response times based on hidden Markov modeling to account for within-subject differences in responses and response times. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate acceptable parameter recovery and acceptable performance of various fit indices in distinguishing between different models. In addition, both a confirmatory and an exploratory application are presented to demonstrate the practical value of the modeling approach.

  4. A Novel Analytical Model for Network-on-Chip using Semi-Markov Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG, J.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Network-on-Chip (NoC communication architecture is proposed to resolve the bottleneck of Multi-processor communication in a single chip. In this paper, a performance analytical model using Semi-Markov Process (SMP is presented to obtain the NoC performance. More precisely, given the related parameters, SMP is used to describe the behavior of each channel and the header flit routing time on each channel can be calculated by analyzing the SMP. Then, the average packet latency in NoC can be calculated. The accuracy of our model is illustrated through simulation. Indeed, the experimental results show that the proposed model can be used to obtain NoC performance and it performs better than the state-of-art models. Therefore, our model can be used as a useful tool to guide the NoC design process.

  5. Theoretical restrictions on longest implicit time scales in Markov state models of biomolecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinitskiy, Anton V.; Pande, Vijay S.

    2018-01-01

    Markov state models (MSMs) have been widely used to analyze computer simulations of various biomolecular systems. They can capture conformational transitions much slower than an average or maximal length of a single molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory from the set of trajectories used to build the MSM. A rule of thumb claiming that the slowest implicit time scale captured by an MSM should be comparable by the order of magnitude to the aggregate duration of all MD trajectories used to build this MSM has been known in the field. However, this rule has never been formally proved. In this work, we present analytical results for the slowest time scale in several types of MSMs, supporting the above rule. We conclude that the slowest implicit time scale equals the product of the aggregate sampling and four factors that quantify: (1) how much statistics on the conformational transitions corresponding to the longest implicit time scale is available, (2) how good the sampling of the destination Markov state is, (3) the gain in statistics from using a sliding window for counting transitions between Markov states, and (4) a bias in the estimate of the implicit time scale arising from finite sampling of the conformational transitions. We demonstrate that in many practically important cases all these four factors are on the order of unity, and we analyze possible scenarios that could lead to their significant deviation from unity. Overall, we provide for the first time analytical results on the slowest time scales captured by MSMs. These results can guide further practical applications of MSMs to biomolecular dynamics and allow for higher computational efficiency of simulations.

  6. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui

    2014-01-01

    The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market. PMID:24782659

  7. Statistical identification with hidden Markov models of large order splitting strategies in an equity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2010-07-01

    Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders, we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick-by-tick inventory variation of market members of the Spanish Stock Exchange. Our methodology probabilistically detects trading sequences, which are characterized by a significant majority of buy or sell transactions. We interpret these patches of sequential buying or selling transactions as proxies of the traded hidden orders. We find that the time, volume and number of transaction size distributions of these patches are fat tailed. Long patches are characterized by a large fraction of market orders and a low participation rate, while short patches have a large fraction of limit orders and a high participation rate. We observe the existence of a buy-sell asymmetry in the number, average length, average fraction of market orders and average participation rate of the detected patches. The detected asymmetry is clearly dependent on the local market trend. We also compare the hidden Markov model patches with those obtained with the segmentation method used in Vaglica et al (2008 Phys. Rev. E 77 036110), and we conclude that the former ones can be interpreted as a partition of the latter ones.

  8. A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Hu, Youmin; Wu, Bo; Wang, Yan; Xie, Fengyun

    2017-05-18

    The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD). Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features' information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

  9. A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Liu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD. Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features’ information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

  10. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.

  11. Non-homogeneous Markov process models with informative observations with an application to Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Baojiang; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2011-05-01

    Identifying risk factors for transition rates among normal cognition, mildly cognitive impairment, dementia and death in an Alzheimer's disease study is very important. It is known that transition rates among these states are strongly time dependent. While Markov process models are often used to describe these disease progressions, the literature mainly focuses on time homogeneous processes, and limited tools are available for dealing with non-homogeneity. Further, patients may choose when they want to visit the clinics, which creates informative observations. In this paper, we develop methods to deal with non-homogeneous Markov processes through time scale transformation when observation times are pre-planned with some observations missing. Maximum likelihood estimation via the EM algorithm is derived for parameter estimation. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method works well under a variety of situations. An application to the Alzheimer's disease study identifies that there is a significant increase in transition rates as a function of time. Furthermore, our models reveal that the non-ignorable missing mechanism is perhaps reasonable. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. I. Theory and Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Benjamin; Yi, Zheng; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Smith, Jeremy C; Noé, Frank

    2013-11-07

    The dynamics of complex molecules can be directly probed by inelastic neutron scattering experiments. However, many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales, which makes it difficult to assign processes seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements. Here, we show how Markov models can be used to connect structural changes observed in molecular dynamics simulation directly to the relaxation processes probed by scattering experiments. For this, a conformational dynamics theory of dynamical neutron and X-ray scattering is developed, following our previous approach for computing dynamical fingerprints of time-correlation functions [F. Noé, S. Doose, I. Daidone, M. Löllmann, J. Chodera, M. Sauer, and J. Smith, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108, 4822 (2011)]. Markov modeling is used to approximate the relaxation processes and timescales of the molecule via the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a transition matrix between conformational substates. This procedure allows the establishment of a complete set of exponential decay functions and a full decomposition into the individual contributions, i.e., the contribution of every atom and dynamical process to each experimental relaxation process.

  13. Estimating the ratios of the stationary distribution values for Markov chains modeling evolutionary algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitavskiy, Boris; Cannings, Chris

    2009-01-01

    The evolutionary algorithm stochastic process is well-known to be Markovian. These have been under investigation in much of the theoretical evolutionary computing research. When the mutation rate is positive, the Markov chain modeling of an evolutionary algorithm is irreducible and, therefore, has a unique stationary distribution. Rather little is known about the stationary distribution. In fact, the only quantitative facts established so far tell us that the stationary distributions of Markov chains modeling evolutionary algorithms concentrate on uniform populations (i.e., those populations consisting of a repeated copy of the same individual). At the same time, knowing the stationary distribution may provide some information about the expected time it takes for the algorithm to reach a certain solution, assessment of the biases due to recombination and selection, and is of importance in population genetics to assess what is called a "genetic load" (see the introduction for more details). In the recent joint works of the first author, some bounds have been established on the rates at which the stationary distribution concentrates on the uniform populations. The primary tool used in these papers is the "quotient construction" method. It turns out that the quotient construction method can be exploited to derive much more informative bounds on ratios of the stationary distribution values of various subsets of the state space. In fact, some of the bounds obtained in the current work are expressed in terms of the parameters involved in all the three main stages of an evolutionary algorithm: namely, selection, recombination, and mutation.

  14. High-Resolution Remote Sensing Image Building Extraction Based on Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, W.; Yan, L.; Chang, Y.; Gong, L.

    2018-04-01

    With the increase of resolution, remote sensing images have the characteristics of increased information load, increased noise, more complex feature geometry and texture information, which makes the extraction of building information more difficult. To solve this problem, this paper designs a high resolution remote sensing image building extraction method based on Markov model. This method introduces Contourlet domain map clustering and Markov model, captures and enhances the contour and texture information of high-resolution remote sensing image features in multiple directions, and further designs the spectral feature index that can characterize "pseudo-buildings" in the building area. Through the multi-scale segmentation and extraction of image features, the fine extraction from the building area to the building is realized. Experiments show that this method can restrain the noise of high-resolution remote sensing images, reduce the interference of non-target ground texture information, and remove the shadow, vegetation and other pseudo-building information, compared with the traditional pixel-level image information extraction, better performance in building extraction precision, accuracy and completeness.

  15. Vacation model for Markov machine repair problem with two heterogeneous unreliable servers and threshold recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Madhu; Meena, Rakesh Kumar

    2018-03-01

    Markov model of multi-component machining system comprising two unreliable heterogeneous servers and mixed type of standby support has been studied. The repair job of broken down machines is done on the basis of bi-level threshold policy for the activation of the servers. The server returns back to render repair job when the pre-specified workload of failed machines is build up. The first (second) repairman turns on only when the work load of N1 (N2) failed machines is accumulated in the system. The both servers may go for vacation in case when all the machines are in good condition and there are no pending repair jobs for the repairmen. Runge-Kutta method is implemented to solve the set of governing equations used to formulate the Markov model. Various system metrics including the mean queue length, machine availability, throughput, etc., are derived to determine the performance of the machining system. To provide the computational tractability of the present investigation, a numerical illustration is provided. A cost function is also constructed to determine the optimal repair rate of the server by minimizing the expected cost incurred on the system. The hybrid soft computing method is considered to develop the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The validation of the numerical results obtained by Runge-Kutta approach is also facilitated by computational results generated by ANFIS.

  16. Markov modeling for the neurosurgeon: a review of the literature and an introduction to cost-effectiveness research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wali, Arvin R; Brandel, Michael G; Santiago-Dieppa, David R; Rennert, Robert C; Steinberg, Jeffrey A; Hirshman, Brian R; Murphy, James D; Khalessi, Alexander A

    2018-05-01

    OBJECTIVE Markov modeling is a clinical research technique that allows competing medical strategies to be mathematically assessed in order to identify the optimal allocation of health care resources. The authors present a review of the recently published neurosurgical literature that employs Markov modeling and provide a conceptual framework with which to evaluate, critique, and apply the findings generated from health economics research. METHODS The PubMed online database was searched to identify neurosurgical literature published from January 2010 to December 2017 that had utilized Markov modeling for neurosurgical cost-effectiveness studies. Included articles were then assessed with regard to year of publication, subspecialty of neurosurgery, decision analytical techniques utilized, and source information for model inputs. RESULTS A total of 55 articles utilizing Markov models were identified across a broad range of neurosurgical subspecialties. Sixty-five percent of the papers were published within the past 3 years alone. The majority of models derived health transition probabilities, health utilities, and cost information from previously published studies or publicly available information. Only 62% of the studies incorporated indirect costs. Ninety-three percent of the studies performed a 1-way or 2-way sensitivity analysis, and 67% performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. A review of the conceptual framework of Markov modeling and an explanation of the different terminology and methodology are provided. CONCLUSIONS As neurosurgeons continue to innovate and identify novel treatment strategies for patients, Markov modeling will allow for better characterization of the impact of these interventions on a patient and societal level. The aim of this work is to equip the neurosurgical readership with the tools to better understand, critique, and apply findings produced from cost-effectiveness research.

  17. From complex spatial dynamics to simple Markov chain models: do predators and prey leave footprints?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nachman, Gøsta Støger; Borregaard, Michael Krabbe

    2010-01-01

    to another, are then depicted in a state transition diagram, constituting the "footprints" of the underlying population dynamics. We investigate to what extent changes in the population processes modeled in the complex simulation (i.e. the predator's functional response and the dispersal rates of both......In this paper we present a concept for using presence-absence data to recover information on the population dynamics of predator-prey systems. We use a highly complex and spatially explicit simulation model of a predator-prey mite system to generate simple presence-absence data: the number...... of transition probabilities on state variables, and combine this information in a Markov chain transition matrix model. Finally, we use this extended model to predict the long-term dynamics of the system and to reveal its asymptotic steady state properties....

  18. Markov chain sampling of the O(n) loop models on the infinite plane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdeiro, Victor

    2017-07-01

    A numerical method was recently proposed in Herdeiro and Doyon [Phys. Rev. E 94, 043322 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevE.94.043322] showing a precise sampling of the infinite plane two-dimensional critical Ising model for finite lattice subsections. The present note extends the method to a larger class of models, namely the O(n) loop gas models for n ∈(1 ,2 ] . We argue that even though the Gibbs measure is nonlocal, it is factorizable on finite subsections when sufficient information on the loops touching the boundaries is stored. Our results attempt to show that provided an efficient Markov chain mixing algorithm and an improved discrete lattice dilation procedure the planar limit of the O(n) models can be numerically studied with efficiency similar to the Ising case. This confirms that scale invariance is the only requirement for the present numerical method to work.

  19. Multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for computationally expensive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, M.; Ray, J.; Ren, H.; Hou, Z.; Bao, J.

    2017-12-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to infer model parameters from observational data. The parameters are inferred as probability densities, thus capturing estimation error due to sparsity of the data, and the shortcomings of the model. Multiple communicating chains executing the MCMC method have the potential to explore the parameter space better, and conceivably accelerate the convergence to the final distribution. We present results from tests conducted with the multi-chain method to show how the acceleration occurs i.e., for loose convergence tolerances, the multiple chains do not make much of a difference. The ensemble of chains also seems to have the ability to accelerate the convergence of a few chains that might start from suboptimal starting points. Finally, we show the performance of the chains in the estimation of O(10) parameters using computationally expensive forward models such as the Community Land Model, where the sampling burden is distributed over multiple chains.

  20. A MATLAB Package for Markov Chain Monte Carlo with a Multi-Unidimensional IRT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanyan Sheng

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Unidimensional item response theory (IRT models are useful when each item is designed to measure some facet of a unified latent trait. In practical applications, items are not necessarily measuring the same underlying trait, and hence the more general multi-unidimensional model should be considered. This paper provides the requisite information and description of software that implements the Gibbs sampler for such models with two item parameters and a normal ogive form. The software developed is written in the MATLAB package IRTmu2no. The package is flexible enough to allow a user the choice to simulate binary response data with multiple dimensions, set the number of total or burn-in iterations, specify starting values or prior distributions for model parameters, check convergence of the Markov chain, as well as obtain Bayesian fit statistics. Illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate and validate the use of the software package.