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Sample records for markov model-based named

  1. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

    2008-01-01

    The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)

  2. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safety, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)

  3. A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Gagliardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

  4. Confronting uncertainty in model-based geostatistics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minasny, B.; Vrugt, J.A.; McBratney, A.B.

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates for the first time the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter inference in model-based soil geostatistics. We implemented the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm to jointly summarize the posterior

  5. Robust Transmission of Speech LSFs Using Hidden Markov Model-Based Multiple Description Index Assignments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradeepa Yahampath

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Speech coding techniques capable of generating encoded representations which are robust against channel losses play an important role in enabling reliable voice communication over packet networks and mobile wireless systems. In this paper, we investigate the use of multiple description index assignments (MDIAs for loss-tolerant transmission of line spectral frequency (LSF coefficients, typically generated by state-of-the-art speech coders. We propose a simulated annealing-based approach for optimizing MDIAs for Markov-model-based decoders which exploit inter- and intraframe correlations in LSF coefficients to reconstruct the quantized LSFs from coded bit streams corrupted by channel losses. Experimental results are presented which compare the performance of a number of novel LSF transmission schemes. These results clearly demonstrate that Markov-model-based decoders, when used in conjunction with optimized MDIA, can yield average spectral distortion much lower than that produced by methods such as interleaving/interpolation, commonly used to combat the packet losses.

  6. Robust Transmission of Speech LSFs Using Hidden Markov Model-Based Multiple Description Index Assignments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rondeau Paul

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Speech coding techniques capable of generating encoded representations which are robust against channel losses play an important role in enabling reliable voice communication over packet networks and mobile wireless systems. In this paper, we investigate the use of multiple description index assignments (MDIAs for loss-tolerant transmission of line spectral frequency (LSF coefficients, typically generated by state-of-the-art speech coders. We propose a simulated annealing-based approach for optimizing MDIAs for Markov-model-based decoders which exploit inter- and intraframe correlations in LSF coefficients to reconstruct the quantized LSFs from coded bit streams corrupted by channel losses. Experimental results are presented which compare the performance of a number of novel LSF transmission schemes. These results clearly demonstrate that Markov-model-based decoders, when used in conjunction with optimized MDIA, can yield average spectral distortion much lower than that produced by methods such as interleaving/interpolation, commonly used to combat the packet losses.

  7. Markov Chain Model-Based Optimal Cluster Heads Selection for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulnaz Ahmed

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The longer network lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs is a goal which is directly related to energy consumption. This energy consumption issue becomes more challenging when the energy load is not properly distributed in the sensing area. The hierarchal clustering architecture is the best choice for these kind of issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel clustering protocol called Markov chain model-based optimal cluster heads (MOCHs selection for WSNs. In our proposed model, we introduce a simple strategy for the optimal number of cluster heads selection to overcome the problem of uneven energy distribution in the network. The attractiveness of our model is that the BS controls the number of cluster heads while the cluster heads control the cluster members in each cluster in such a restricted manner that a uniform and even load is ensured in each cluster. We perform an extensive range of simulation using five quality measures, namely: the lifetime of the network, stable and unstable region in the lifetime of the network, throughput of the network, the number of cluster heads in the network, and the transmission time of the network to analyze the proposed model. We compare MOCHs against Sleep-awake Energy Efficient Distributed (SEED clustering, Artificial Bee Colony (ABC, Zone Based Routing (ZBR, and Centralized Energy Efficient Clustering (CEEC using the above-discussed quality metrics and found that the lifetime of the proposed model is almost 1095, 2630, 3599, and 2045 rounds (time steps greater than SEED, ABC, ZBR, and CEEC, respectively. The obtained results demonstrate that the MOCHs is better than SEED, ABC, ZBR, and CEEC in terms of energy efficiency and the network throughput.

  8. A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Hu, Youmin; Wu, Bo; Wang, Yan; Xie, Fengyun

    2017-05-18

    The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD). Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features' information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

  9. A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Liu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD. Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features’ information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

  10. Name segmentation using hidden Markov models and its application in record linkage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cassia Braga Gonçalves

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the use of hidden Markov models (HMM for the segmentation of person names and its influence on record linkage. A HMM was applied to the segmentation of patient’s and mother’s names in the databases of the Mortality Information System (SIM, Information Subsystem for High Complexity Procedures (APAC, and Hospital Information System (AIH. A sample of 200 patients from each database was segmented via HMM, and the results were compared to those from segmentation by the authors. The APAC-SIM and APAC-AIH databases were linked using three different segmentation strategies, one of which used HMM. Conformity of segmentation via HMM varied from 90.5% to 92.5%. The different segmentation strategies yielded similar results in the record linkage process. This study suggests that segmentation of Brazilian names via HMM is no more effective than traditional segmentation approaches in the linkage process.

  11. Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based On Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widodo Soetjipto Jojok

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia’s Bridge Management System (I-BMS has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD. System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.

  12. Damage evaluation by a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Hanfei; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Zhang, Jinjin

    2016-02-01

    Guided wave based structural health monitoring has shown great potential in aerospace applications. However, one of the key challenges of practical engineering applications is the accurate interpretation of the guided wave signals under time-varying environmental and operational conditions. This paper presents a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method to improve the damage evaluation reliability of real aircraft structures under time-varying conditions. In the proposed approach, an HMM based unweighted moving average trend estimation method, which can capture the trend of damage propagation from the posterior probability obtained by HMM modeling is used to achieve a probabilistic evaluation of the structural damage. To validate the developed method, experiments are performed on a hole-edge crack specimen under fatigue loading condition and a real aircraft wing spar under changing structural boundary conditions. Experimental results show the advantage of the proposed method.

  13. Laos Organization Name Using Cascaded Model Based on SVM and CRF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duan Shaopeng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the characteristics of Laos organization name, this paper proposes a two layer model based on conditional random field (CRF and support vector machine (SVM for Laos organization name recognition. A layer of model uses CRF to recognition simple organization name, and the result is used to support the decision of the second level. Based on the driving method, the second layer uses SVM and CRF to recognition the complicated organization name. Finally, the results of the two levels are combined, And by a subsequent treatment to correct results of low confidence recognition. The results show that this approach based on SVM and CRF is efficient in recognizing organization name through open test for real linguistics, and the recalling rate achieve 80. 83%and the precision rate achieves 82. 75%.

  14. A Multilayer Hidden Markov Models-Based Method for Human-Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongben Tao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To achieve Human-Robot Interaction (HRI by using gestures, a continuous gesture recognition approach based on Multilayer Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs is proposed, which consists of two parts. One part is gesture spotting and segment module, the other part is continuous gesture recognition module. Firstly, a Kinect sensor is used to capture 3D acceleration and 3D angular velocity data of hand gestures. And then, a Feed-forward Neural Networks (FNNs and a threshold criterion are used for gesture spotting and segment, respectively. Afterwards, the segmented gesture signals are respectively preprocessed and vector symbolized by a sliding window and a K-means clustering method. Finally, symbolized data are sent into Lower Hidden Markov Models (LHMMs to identify individual gestures, and then, a Bayesian filter with sequential constraints among gestures in Upper Hidden Markov Models (UHMMs is used to correct recognition errors created in LHMMs. Five predefined gestures are used to interact with a Kinect mobile robot in experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method not only has good effectiveness and accuracy, but also has favorable real-time performance.

  15. Hidden Markov Model-based Pedestrian Navigation System using MEMS Inertial Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Yingjun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a foot-mounted pedestrian navigation system using MEMS inertial sensors is implemented, where the zero-velocity detection is abstracted into a hidden Markov model with 4 states and 15 observations. Moreover, an observations extraction algorithm has been developed to extract observations from sensor outputs; sample sets are used to train and optimize the model parameters by the Baum-Welch algorithm. Finally, a navigation system is developed, and the performance of the pedestrian navigation system is evaluated using indoor and outdoor field tests, and the results show that position error is less than 3% of total distance travelled.

  16. Bayesian networks precipitation model based on hidden Markov analysis and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Surface precipitation estimation is very important in hydrologic forecast. To account for the influence of the neighbors on the precipitation of an arbitrary grid in the network, Bayesian networks and Markov random field were adopted to estimate surface precipitation. Spherical coordinates and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm were used for region interpolation, and for estimation of the precipitation of arbitrary point in the region. Surface precipitation estimation of seven precipitation stations in Qinghai Lake region was performed. By comparing with other surface precipitation methods such as Thiessen polygon method, distance weighted mean method and arithmetic mean method, it is shown that the proposed method can judge the relationship of precipitation among different points in the area under complicated circumstances and the simulation results are more accurate and rational.

  17. Learning to maximize reward rate: a model based on semi-Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodadadi, Arash; Fakhari, Pegah; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2014-01-01

    WHEN ANIMALS HAVE TO MAKE A NUMBER OF DECISIONS DURING A LIMITED TIME INTERVAL, THEY FACE A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM: how much time they should spend on each decision in order to achieve the maximum possible total outcome. Deliberating more on one decision usually leads to more outcome but less time will remain for other decisions. In the framework of sequential sampling models, the question is how animals learn to set their decision threshold such that the total expected outcome achieved during a limited time is maximized. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework for answering this question. To this end, we consider an experimental design in which each trial can come from one of the several possible "conditions." A condition specifies the difficulty of the trial, the reward, the penalty and so on. We show that to maximize the expected reward during a limited time, the subject should set a separate value of decision threshold for each condition. We propose a model of learning the optimal value of decision thresholds based on the theory of semi-Markov decision processes (SMDP). In our model, the experimental environment is modeled as an SMDP with each "condition" being a "state" and the value of decision thresholds being the "actions" taken in those states. The problem of finding the optimal decision thresholds then is cast as the stochastic optimal control problem of taking actions in each state in the corresponding SMDP such that the average reward rate is maximized. Our model utilizes a biologically plausible learning algorithm to solve this problem. The simulation results show that at the beginning of learning the model choses high values of decision threshold which lead to sub-optimal performance. With experience, however, the model learns to lower the value of decision thresholds till finally it finds the optimal values.

  18. Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Neural Model based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh P N Rao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. Actions are selected based not on a single optimal estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the belief state. We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize

  19. Grey-Markov prediction model based on background value optimization and central-point triangular whitenization weight function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jing; Dang, Yaoguo; Li, Bingjun

    2018-01-01

    Grey-Markov forecasting model is a combination of grey prediction model and Markov chain which show obvious optimization effects for data sequences with characteristics of non-stationary and volatility. However, the state division process in traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model is mostly based on subjective real numbers that immediately affects the accuracy of forecasting values. To seek the solution, this paper introduces the central-point triangular whitenization weight function in state division to calculate possibilities of research values in each state which reflect preference degrees in different states in an objective way. On the other hand, background value optimization is applied in the traditional grey model to generate better fitting data. By this means, the improved Grey-Markov forecasting model is built. Finally, taking the grain production in Henan Province as an example, it verifies this model's validity by comparing with GM(1,1) based on background value optimization and the traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model.

  20. MicroRNA prediction using a fixed-order Markov model based on the secondary structure pattern.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Shen

    Full Text Available Predicting miRNAs is an arduous task, due to the diversity of the precursors and complexity of enzyme processes. Although several prediction approaches have reached impressive performances, few of them could achieve a full-function recognition of mature miRNA directly from the candidate hairpins across species. Therefore, researchers continue to seek a more powerful model close to biological recognition to miRNA structure. In this report, we describe a novel miRNA prediction algorithm, known as FOMmiR, using a fixed-order Markov model based on the secondary structural pattern. For a training dataset containing 809 human pre-miRNAs and 6441 human pseudo-miRNA hairpins, the model's parameters were defined and evaluated. The results showed that FOMmiR reached 91% accuracy on the human dataset through 5-fold cross-validation. Moreover, for the independent test datasets, the FOMmiR presented an outstanding prediction in human and other species including vertebrates, Drosophila, worms and viruses, even plants, in contrast to the well-known algorithms and models. Especially, the FOMmiR was not only able to distinguish the miRNA precursors from the hairpins, but also locate the position and strand of the mature miRNA. Therefore, this study provides a new generation of miRNA prediction algorithm, which successfully realizes a full-function recognition of the mature miRNAs directly from the hairpin sequences. And it presents a new understanding of the biological recognition based on the strongest signal's location detected by FOMmiR, which might be closely associated with the enzyme cleavage mechanism during the miRNA maturation.

  1. Markov Chains and Markov Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Ogunbayo, Segun

    2016-01-01

    Markov chain, which was named after Andrew Markov is a mathematical system that transfers a state to another state. Many real world systems contain uncertainty. This study helps us to understand the basic idea of a Markov chain and how is been useful in our daily lives. For some times there had been suspense on distinct predictions and future existences. Also in different games there had been different expectations or results involved. That is the reason why we need Markov chains to predict o...

  2. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safetly, Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

  3. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

    2008-01-01

    In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

  4. Generalized Boolean logic Driven Markov Processes: A powerful modeling framework for Model-Based Safety Analysis of dynamic repairable and reconfigurable systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piriou, Pierre-Yves; Faure, Jean-Marc; Lesage, Jean-Jacques

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a modeling framework that permits to describe in an integrated manner the structure of the critical system to analyze, by using an enriched fault tree, the dysfunctional behavior of its components, by means of Markov processes, and the reconfiguration strategies that have been planned to ensure safety and availability, with Moore machines. This framework has been developed from BDMP (Boolean logic Driven Markov Processes), a previous framework for dynamic repairable systems. First, the contribution is motivated by pinpointing the limitations of BDMP to model complex reconfiguration strategies and the failures of the control of these strategies. The syntax and semantics of GBDMP (Generalized Boolean logic Driven Markov Processes) are then formally defined; in particular, an algorithm to analyze the dynamic behavior of a GBDMP model is developed. The modeling capabilities of this framework are illustrated on three representative examples. Last, qualitative and quantitative analysis of GDBMP models highlight the benefits of the approach.

  5. Chronic escitalopram treatment attenuated the accelerated rapid eye movement sleep transitions after selective rapid eye movement sleep deprivation: a model-based analysis using Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyalik, Diána; Vas, Szilvia; Kátai, Zita; Kitka, Tamás; Gyertyán, István; Bagdy, Gyorgy; Tóthfalusi, László

    2014-11-19

    Shortened rapid eye movement (REM) sleep latency and increased REM sleep amount are presumed biological markers of depression. These sleep alterations are also observable in several animal models of depression as well as during the rebound sleep after selective REM sleep deprivation (RD). Furthermore, REM sleep fragmentation is typically associated with stress procedures and anxiety. The selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants reduce REM sleep time and increase REM latency after acute dosing in normal condition and even during REM rebound following RD. However, their therapeutic outcome evolves only after weeks of treatment, and the effects of chronic treatment in REM-deprived animals have not been studied yet. Chronic escitalopram- (10 mg/kg/day, osmotic minipump for 24 days) or vehicle-treated rats were subjected to a 3-day-long RD on day 21 using the flower pot procedure or kept in home cage. On day 24, fronto-parietal electroencephalogram, electromyogram and motility were recorded in the first 2 h of the passive phase. The observed sleep patterns were characterized applying standard sleep metrics, by modelling the transitions between sleep phases using Markov chains and by spectral analysis. Based on Markov chain analysis, chronic escitalopram treatment attenuated the REM sleep fragmentation [accelerated transition rates between REM and non-REM (NREM) stages, decreased REM sleep residence time between two transitions] during the rebound sleep. Additionally, the antidepressant avoided the frequent awakenings during the first 30 min of recovery period. The spectral analysis showed that the SSRI prevented the RD-caused elevation in theta (5-9 Hz) power during slow-wave sleep. Conversely, based on the aggregate sleep metrics, escitalopram had only moderate effects and it did not significantly attenuate the REM rebound after RD. In conclusion, chronic SSRI treatment is capable of reducing several effects on sleep which might be the consequence

  6. Modeling complex metabolic reactions, ecological systems, and financial and legal networks with MIANN models based on Markov-Wiener node descriptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duardo-Sánchez, Aliuska; Munteanu, Cristian R; Riera-Fernández, Pablo; López-Díaz, Antonio; Pazos, Alejandro; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2014-01-27

    The use of numerical parameters in Complex Network analysis is expanding to new fields of application. At a molecular level, we can use them to describe the molecular structure of chemical entities, protein interactions, or metabolic networks. However, the applications are not restricted to the world of molecules and can be extended to the study of macroscopic nonliving systems, organisms, or even legal or social networks. On the other hand, the development of the field of Artificial Intelligence has led to the formulation of computational algorithms whose design is based on the structure and functioning of networks of biological neurons. These algorithms, called Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), can be useful for the study of complex networks, since the numerical parameters that encode information of the network (for example centralities/node descriptors) can be used as inputs for the ANNs. The Wiener index (W) is a graph invariant widely used in chemoinformatics to quantify the molecular structure of drugs and to study complex networks. In this work, we explore for the first time the possibility of using Markov chains to calculate analogues of node distance numbers/W to describe complex networks from the point of view of their nodes. These parameters are called Markov-Wiener node descriptors of order k(th) (W(k)). Please, note that these descriptors are not related to Markov-Wiener stochastic processes. Here, we calculated the W(k)(i) values for a very high number of nodes (>100,000) in more than 100 different complex networks using the software MI-NODES. These networks were grouped according to the field of application. Molecular networks include the Metabolic Reaction Networks (MRNs) of 40 different organisms. In addition, we analyzed other biological and legal and social networks. These include the Interaction Web Database Biological Networks (IWDBNs), with 75 food webs or ecological systems and the Spanish Financial Law Network (SFLN). The calculated W

  7. Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Kirkwood, James R

    2015-01-01

    Review of ProbabilityShort HistoryReview of Basic Probability DefinitionsSome Common Probability DistributionsProperties of a Probability DistributionProperties of the Expected ValueExpected Value of a Random Variable with Common DistributionsGenerating FunctionsMoment Generating FunctionsExercisesDiscrete-Time, Finite-State Markov ChainsIntroductionNotationTransition MatricesDirected Graphs: Examples of Markov ChainsRandom Walk with Reflecting BoundariesGambler’s RuinEhrenfest ModelCentral Problem of Markov ChainsCondition to Ensure a Unique Equilibrium StateFinding the Equilibrium StateTransient and Recurrent StatesIndicator FunctionsPerron-Frobenius TheoremAbsorbing Markov ChainsMean First Passage TimeMean Recurrence Time and the Equilibrium StateFundamental Matrix for Regular Markov ChainsDividing a Markov Chain into Equivalence ClassesPeriodic Markov ChainsReducible Markov ChainsSummaryExercisesDiscrete-Time, Infinite-State Markov ChainsRenewal ProcessesDelayed Renewal ProcessesEquilibrium State f...

  8. Effect of battery longevity on costs and health outcomes associated with cardiac implantable electronic devices: a Markov model-based Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmier, Jordana K; Lau, Edmund C; Patel, Jasmine D; Klenk, Juergen A; Greenspon, Arnold J

    2017-11-01

    The effects of device and patient characteristics on health and economic outcomes in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) are unclear. Modeling can estimate costs and outcomes for patients with CIEDs under a variety of scenarios, varying battery longevity, comorbidities, and care settings. The objective of this analysis was to compare changes in patient outcomes and payer costs attributable to increases in battery life of implantable cardiac defibrillators (ICDs) and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators (CRT-D). We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model simulation to follow patients through primary implant, postoperative maintenance, generator replacement, and revision states. Patients were simulated in 3-month increments for 15 years or until death. Key variables included Charlson Comorbidity Index, CIED type, legacy versus extended battery longevity, mortality rates (procedure and all-cause), infection and non-infectious complication rates, and care settings. Costs included procedure-related (facility and professional), maintenance, and infections and non-infectious complications, all derived from Medicare data (2004-2014, 5% sample). Outcomes included counts of battery replacements, revisions, infections and non-infectious complications, and discounted (3%) costs and life years. An increase in battery longevity in ICDs yielded reductions in numbers of revisions (by 23%), battery changes (by 44%), infections (by 23%), non-infectious complications (by 10%), and total costs per patient (by 9%). Analogous reductions for CRT-Ds were 23% (revisions), 32% (battery changes), 22% (infections), 8% (complications), and 10% (costs). Based on modeling results, as battery longevity increases, patients experience fewer adverse outcomes and healthcare costs are reduced. Understanding the magnitude of the cost benefit of extended battery life can inform budgeting and planning decisions by healthcare providers and insurers.

  9. Cost effectiveness comparison of dutasteride and finasteride in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia--The Markov model based on data from Montenegro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabanović, Vera; Kostić, Marina; Janković, Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is one of the most common disease among males aging 50 years and more. The rise of the prevalence of BPH is related to aging, and since duration of life time period has the tendency of rising the prevalence of BPH will rise as costs of BPH treatment will and its influence on health economic budget. Dutasteride is a new drug similar to finasteride, inhibits enzyme testosterone 5-alpha reductase, diminish symptoms of BPH, reduce risk of the complications and increases quality of life in patients with BPH. But, the use of dutasteride is limited by its high costs. The aim of this study was to compare cost effectiveness of dutasteride and finasteride from the perspective of a purchaser of health care service (Republic Institute for Health Insuranse, Montenegro). We constructed a Markov model to compare cost effectivenss of dutasteride and finasteride using data from the available pharmacoeconomic literature and data about socioeconomic sphere actual in Montenegro. A time horizon was estimated to be 20 years, with the duration of 1 year per one cycle. The discount rate was 3%. We performed Monte Carlo simulation for virtual cohort of 1,000 patients with BPH. The total costs for one year treatment of BPH with dutasteride were estimated to be 6,458.00 € which was higher comparing with finasteride which were 6,088.56 €. The gain in quality adjusted life years (QALY) were higher with dutasteride (11.97 QALY) than with finasteride (11.19 QALY). The results of our study indicate that treating BPH with dutasteride comparing to finasteride is a cost effective option since the value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 1,245.68 €/QALY which is below estimated threshold (1,350.00 € per one gained year of life). Dutasteride is a cost effective option for treating BPH comparing to finasteride. The results of this study provide new information for health care decision makers about treatment of BPH in socioeconomic environment

  10. Cost-effectiveness analysis of tocilizumab in combination with methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis: A Markov model based on data from Serbia, country in socioeconomic transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Marina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Recent studies have shown that biological treatments for rheumatoid arthritis can change the course of rheumatoid arthritis and improve functional ability of patients with rheumatoid arthritis. In spite of this fact, use of biological therapy is still limited by high prices of these medicines, especially in countries in socioeconomic transition. The aim of our study was to compare costeffectiveness of a combination of tocilizumab and methotrexate with methotrexate alone for rheumatoid arthritis in Serbia, a country in socioeconomic transition. Methods. For the purpose of our study we designed a Markov model using data on therapy efficacy from the available literature, and data on the costs of health states calculated from records of actual patients treated in the Clinical Center Kragujevac, Serbia. The duration of one cycle in our model was set at one month, and the time horizon was 480 months (40 years. The study was done from the social perspective, and all the costs and outcomes were discounted for 3% per year. Results. Treating rheumatoid arthritis with diseasemodifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs alone was more cost-effective in comparison with a combination of biologic treatment with tocilizumab and DMARDs. The total costs for treating a patient with DMARDs for one year were on average 261,945.42 RSD, or 2,497.70 Euro and the total costs for treatment with tocilizimab plus DMARDs were on average 1,959,217.44 RSD, or 18,659.20 Euro. However, these results are susceptible to changes in costs and treatment effects of tocilizumab in patients with more severe forms of rheumatoid arthritis. Conclusion. Our results show that the use of tocilizumab for rheumatoid arthrits in economic environment of Serbia is not cost-effective. Use of tocilizumab for treating rheumatoid arthritis can become affordable, if costs of its use become lower. In order to start using expensive biologic medicines in patients in transitional countries

  11. Phasic Triplet Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Yazid Boudaren, Mohamed; Monfrini, Emmanuel; Pieczynski, Wojciech; Aïssani, Amar

    2014-11-01

    Hidden Markov chains have been shown to be inadequate for data modeling under some complex conditions. In this work, we address the problem of statistical modeling of phenomena involving two heterogeneous system states. Such phenomena may arise in biology or communications, among other fields. Namely, we consider that a sequence of meaningful words is to be searched within a whole observation that also contains arbitrary one-by-one symbols. Moreover, a word may be interrupted at some site to be carried on later. Applying plain hidden Markov chains to such data, while ignoring their specificity, yields unsatisfactory results. The Phasic triplet Markov chain, proposed in this paper, overcomes this difficulty by means of an auxiliary underlying process in accordance with the triplet Markov chains theory. Related Bayesian restoration techniques and parameters estimation procedures according to the new model are then described. Finally, to assess the performance of the proposed model against the conventional hidden Markov chain model, experiments are conducted on synthetic and real data.

  12. Markov Models for Handwriting Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Plotz, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Since their first inception, automatic reading systems have evolved substantially, yet the recognition of handwriting remains an open research problem due to its substantial variation in appearance. With the introduction of Markovian models to the field, a promising modeling and recognition paradigm was established for automatic handwriting recognition. However, no standard procedures for building Markov model-based recognizers have yet been established. This text provides a comprehensive overview of the application of Markov models in the field of handwriting recognition, covering both hidden

  13. Markov processes and controlled Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Filar, Jerzy; Chen, Anyue

    2002-01-01

    The general theory of stochastic processes and the more specialized theory of Markov processes evolved enormously in the second half of the last century. In parallel, the theory of controlled Markov chains (or Markov decision processes) was being pioneered by control engineers and operations researchers. Researchers in Markov processes and controlled Markov chains have been, for a long time, aware of the synergies between these two subject areas. However, this may be the first volume dedicated to highlighting these synergies and, almost certainly, it is the first volume that emphasizes the contributions of the vibrant and growing Chinese school of probability. The chapters that appear in this book reflect both the maturity and the vitality of modern day Markov processes and controlled Markov chains. They also will provide an opportunity to trace the connections that have emerged between the work done by members of the Chinese school of probability and the work done by the European, US, Central and South Ameri...

  14. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  15. Decisive Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Henda, Noomene Ben; Mayr, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In part...

  16. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com

    2017-01-15

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  17. A Markov Process Inspired Cellular Automata Model of Road Traffic

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Fa; Li, Li; Hu, Jianming; Ji, Yan; Yao, Danya; Zhang, Yi; Jin, Xuexiang; Su, Yuelong; Wei, Zheng

    2008-01-01

    To provide a more accurate description of the driving behaviors in vehicle queues, a namely Markov-Gap cellular automata model is proposed in this paper. It views the variation of the gap between two consequent vehicles as a Markov process whose stationary distribution corresponds to the observed distribution of practical gaps. The multiformity of this Markov process provides the model enough flexibility to describe various driving behaviors. Two examples are given to show how to specialize i...

  18. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  19. Semi-Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Grabski

    2014-01-01

    Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in System Reliability and Maintenance is a modern view of discrete state space and continuous time semi-Markov processes and their applications in reliability and maintenance. The book explains how to construct semi-Markov models and discusses the different reliability parameters and characteristics that can be obtained from those models. The book is a useful resource for mathematicians, engineering practitioners, and PhD and MSc students who want to understand the basic concepts and results of semi-Markov process theory. Clearly defines the properties and

  20. Cost-Effectiveness Comparison of Fidaxomicin and Vancomycin for Treatment of Clostridium difficile Infection: A Markov Model Based on Data from a South West Balkan Country in Socioeconomic Transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marković, Veroljub; Kostić, Marina; Iličković, Ivana; Janković, Slobodan M

    2014-09-01

    Recent studies have shown that fidaxomicin, a novel antibiotic, can reduce the rate of complications and mortality in patients with colitis induced by Clostridium difficile. Introduction of fidaxomicin in clinical practice is limited by its high costs. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of using fidaxomicin versus vancomycin in patients with colitis induced by C. difficile who did not respond to oral metronidazole. We constructed a Markov model that was than simulated by Monte-Carlo simulation using 1000 virtual patients with colitis induced by C. difficile. The perspective in our model was institutional. The time horizon was 3 months. Values of transition probabilities and therapy outcomes were estimated from the available literature, the prices of health services were obtained from the Republic Institute for Health Insurance Tariff Book, and the price of fidaxomicin was derived from data gained from the drug manufacturer. The total costs of treating one statistical patient for 3 months with fidaxomicin were higher (48,106.19 ± 118.07 Republic of Serbia dinars [RSD]; 95% confidence interval 47,988.12-48,224.27) than the total costs of treating with vancomycin (25,872.85 ± 41.44 RSD; 95% confidence interval 25,831.41-25,914.29). Our results showed that the treatment of infections induced by C. difficile with fidaxomicin correlated with a lower rate of mortality and with a smaller number of colectomies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of fidaxomicin versus vancomycin for colitis induced by C. difficile per saved life was estimated at 2.97 million RSD and for one avoided colectomy at 10.07 million RSD. Results of our model indicate that fidaxomicin is a cost-effective therapy compared with vancomycin in patients with colitis induced by C. difficile if the outcome is life-year saved. However, if the outcome is the number of avoided colectomies, then fidaxomycin is not a cost-effective option compared with vancomycin. Copyright

  1. Fields From Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Jørn

    2005-01-01

    A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly.......A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly....

  2. Markov and mixed models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard

    This thesis deals with mathematical and statistical models with focus on applications in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling. These models are today an important aspect of the drug development in the pharmaceutical industry and continued research in statistical methodology within...... or uncontrollable factors in an individual. Modelling using SDEs also provides new tools for estimation of unknown inputs to a system and is illustrated with an application to estimation of insulin secretion rates in diabetic patients. Models for the eect of a drug is a broader area since drugs may affect...... for non-parametric estimation of Markov processes are proposed to give a detailed description of the sleep process during the night. Statistically the Markov models considered for sleep states are closely related to the PK models based on SDEs as both models share the Markov property. When the models...

  3. Geographic Names

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — The Geographic Names Information System (GNIS), developed by the United States Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Board of Geographic Names, provides...

  4. Markov Tail Chains

    OpenAIRE

    janssen, Anja; Segers, Johan

    2013-01-01

    The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regularly varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper we extend this fact to Markov chains with multivariate regularly varying marginal distributions in Rd. We analyze both the forward and the backward tail process and show that they mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint relation. In ...

  5. Wireless Channel Modeling Based on Finite-State Markov Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chen, Chang-Wen

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of the overall proposed research was to develop a robust video communication over Airborne Networks that are operational under time varying and error prone battlefield environments...

  6. Markov set-chains

    CERN Document Server

    Hartfiel, Darald J

    1998-01-01

    In this study extending classical Markov chain theory to handle fluctuating transition matrices, the author develops a theory of Markov set-chains and provides numerous examples showing how that theory can be applied. Chapters are concluded with a discussion of related research. Readers who can benefit from this monograph are those interested in, or involved with, systems whose data is imprecise or that fluctuate with time. A background equivalent to a course in linear algebra and one in probability theory should be sufficient.

  7. Confluence reduction for Markov automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jaco; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2016-01-01

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. As expected, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of these models. We therefore introduce confluence reduction for Markov automata, a powerful reduction

  8. Process Algebra and Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  9. Process algebra and Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, J.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  10. Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    be obtained as a limiting value of a sample path of a suitable ... makes a mathematical model of chance and deals with the problem by .... Is the Markov chain aperiodic? It is! Here is how you can see it. Suppose that after you do the cut, you hold the top half in your right hand, and the bottom half in your left. Then there.

  11. Composable Markov Building Blocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.; Prade, H.; Subrahmanian, V.S.

    2007-01-01

    In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models and only one model applies at a time (activity in one model coincides with non-activity in the other models), these models can be joined together into one. Under certain conditions, nearly all

  12. Composable Markov Building Blocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.

    2007-01-01

    In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models, these models can be joined together under the constraint that there can only be one activity at a time, i.e. the activities of one model coincide with non-activity in the other models. Under

  13. Perturbed Markov chains

    OpenAIRE

    Solan, Eilon; Vieille, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the transition matrix. We define a new closeness relation between transition matrices, and use graph-theoretic techniques, in contrast with the matrix analysis techniques previously used.

  14. Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 7; Issue 3. Markov Chain Monte Carlo - Examples. Arnab Chakraborty. General Article Volume 7 Issue 3 March 2002 pp 25-34. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/007/03/0025-0034. Keywords.

  15. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  16. Nuclear security assessment with Markov model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear security risk assessment with the Markov model based on random event is performed to explore evaluation methodology for physical protection in nuclear facilities. Because the security incidences are initiated by malicious and intentional acts, expert judgment and Bayes updating are used to estimate scenario and initiation likelihood, and it is assumed that the Markov model derived from stochastic process can be applied to incidence sequence. Both an unauthorized intrusion as Design Based Threat (DBT) and a stand-off attack as beyond-DBT are assumed to hypothetical facilities, and performance of physical protection and mitigation and minimization of consequence are investigated to develop the assessment methodology in a semi-quantitative manner. It is shown that cooperation between facility operator and security authority is important to respond to the beyond-DBT incidence. (author)

  17. MARKOV CHAIN PORTFOLIO LIQUIDITY OPTIMIZATION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eder Oliveira Abensur

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The international financial crisis of September 2008 and May 2010 showed the importance of liquidity as an attribute to be considered in portfolio decisions. This study proposes an optimization model based on available public data, using Markov chain and Genetic Algorithms concepts as it considers the classic duality of risk versus return and incorporating liquidity costs. The work intends to propose a multi-criterion non-linear optimization model using liquidity based on a Markov chain. The non-linear model was tested using Genetic Algorithms with twenty five Brazilian stocks from 2007 to 2009. The results suggest that this is an innovative development methodology and useful for developing an efficient and realistic financial portfolio, as it considers many attributes such as risk, return and liquidity.

  18. Elements of the theory of Markov processes and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Bharucha-Reid, A T

    2010-01-01

    This graduate-level text and reference in probability, with numerous applications to several fields of science, presents nonmeasure-theoretic introduction to theory of Markov processes. The work also covers mathematical models based on the theory, employed in various applied fields. Prerequisites are a knowledge of elementary probability theory, mathematical statistics, and analysis. Appendixes. Bibliographies. 1960 edition.

  19. Generalized Markov branching models

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Junping

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis, we first considered a modified Markov branching process incorporating both state-independent immigration and resurrection. After establishing the criteria for regularity and uniqueness, explicit expressions for the extinction probability and mean extinction time are presented. The criteria for recurrence and ergodicity are also established. In addition, an explicit expression for the equilibrium distribution is presented.\\ud \\ud We then moved on to investigate the basic proper...

  20. Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Ragain, Stephen; Ugander, Johan

    2016-01-01

    As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale---particularly in online domains---there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansio...

  1. Distinguishing Hidden Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Kiefer, Stefan; Sistla, A. Prasad

    2015-01-01

    Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of distinguishing two given HMCs based on an observation sequence that one of the HMCs generates. More precisely, given two HMCs and an observation sequence, a distinguishing algorithm is expected to identify the HMC that generates the observation sequence. Two HM...

  2. Fermionic Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Fannes, Mark; Wouters, Jeroen

    2012-01-01

    We study a quantum process that can be considered as a quantum analogue for the classical Markov process. We specifically construct a version of these processes for free Fermions. For such free Fermionic processes we calculate the entropy density. This can be done either directly using Szeg\\"o's theorem for asymptotic densities of functions of Toeplitz matrices, or through an extension of said theorem to rates of functions, which we present in this article.

  3. Pemodelan Markov Switching Autoregressive

    OpenAIRE

    Ariyani, Fiqria Devi; Warsito, Budi; Yasin, Hasbi

    2014-01-01

    Transition from depreciation to appreciation of exchange rate is one of regime switching that ignored by classic time series model, such as ARIMA, ARCH, or GARCH. Therefore, economic variables are modeled by Markov Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) which consider the regime switching. MLE is not applicable to parameters estimation because regime is an unobservable variable. So that filtering and smoothing process are applied to see the regime probabilities of observation. Using this model, tran...

  4. Approximate quantum Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Sutter, David

    2018-01-01

    This book is an introduction to quantum Markov chains and explains how this concept is connected to the question of how well a lost quantum mechanical system can be recovered from a correlated subsystem. To achieve this goal, we strengthen the data-processing inequality such that it reveals a statement about the reconstruction of lost information. The main difficulty in order to understand the behavior of quantum Markov chains arises from the fact that quantum mechanical operators do not commute in general. As a result we start by explaining two techniques of how to deal with non-commuting matrices: the spectral pinching method and complex interpolation theory. Once the reader is familiar with these techniques a novel inequality is presented that extends the celebrated Golden-Thompson inequality to arbitrarily many matrices. This inequality is the key ingredient in understanding approximate quantum Markov chains and it answers a question from matrix analysis that was open since 1973, i.e., if Lieb's triple ma...

  5. A relation between non-Markov and Markov processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hara, H.

    1980-01-01

    With the aid of a transformation technique, it is shown that some memory effects in the non-Markov processes can be eliminated. In other words, some non-Markov processes are rewritten in a form obtained by the random walk process; the Markov process. To this end, two model processes which have some memory or correlation in the random walk process are introduced. An explanation of the memory in the processes is given. (orig.)

  6. Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Jadoon, Khan

    2016-08-08

    A substantial interpretation of electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements requires quantifying optimal model parameters and uncertainty of a nonlinear inverse problem. For this purpose, an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to assess multi-orientation and multi-offset EMI measurements in an agriculture field with non-saline and saline soil. In the MCMC simulations, posterior distribution was computed using Bayes rule. The electromagnetic forward model based on the full solution of Maxwell\\'s equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD mini-Explorer. The model parameters and uncertainty for the three-layered earth model are investigated by using synthetic data. Our results show that in the scenario of non-saline soil, the parameters of layer thickness are not well estimated as compared to layers electrical conductivity because layer thicknesses in the model exhibits a low sensitivity to the EMI measurements, and is hence difficult to resolve. Application of the proposed MCMC based inversion to the field measurements in a drip irrigation system demonstrate that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil, and provide useful insight about parameter uncertainty for the assessment of the model outputs.

  7. Unifying Model-Based and Reactive Programming within a Model-Based Executive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Brian C.; Gupta, Vineet; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    Real-time, model-based, deduction has recently emerged as a vital component in AI's tool box for developing highly autonomous reactive systems. Yet one of the current hurdles towards developing model-based reactive systems is the number of methods simultaneously employed, and their corresponding melange of programming and modeling languages. This paper offers an important step towards unification. We introduce RMPL, a rich modeling language that combines probabilistic, constraint-based modeling with reactive programming constructs, while offering a simple semantics in terms of hidden state Markov processes. We introduce probabilistic, hierarchical constraint automata (PHCA), which allow Markov processes to be expressed in a compact representation that preserves the modularity of RMPL programs. Finally, a model-based executive, called Reactive Burton is described that exploits this compact encoding to perform efficIent simulation, belief state update and control sequence generation.

  8. Non-stationary Markov chains

    OpenAIRE

    Mallak, Saed

    1996-01-01

    Ankara : Department of Mathematics and Institute of Engineering and Sciences of Bilkent University, 1996. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 1996. Includes bibliographical references leaves leaf 29 In thi.s work, we studierl the Ergodicilv of Non-Stationary .Markov chains. We gave several e.xainples with different cases. We proved that given a sec[uence of Markov chains such that the limit of this sec|uence is an Ergodic Markov chain, then the limit of the combination ...

  9. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Markov chain; state space; stationary transition probability; stationary distribution; irreducibility; aperiodicity; stationarity; M-H algorithm; proposal distribution; acceptance probability; image processing; Gibbs sampler.

  10. Musical Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchenkov, Dima; Dawin, Jean René

    A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.

  11. On Weak Markov's Principle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kohlenbach, Ulrich Wilhelm

    2002-01-01

    We show that the so-called weak Markov's principle (WMP) which states that every pseudo-positive real number is positive is underivable in E-HA + AC. Since allows one to formalize (atl eastl arge parts of) Bishop's constructive mathematics, this makes it unlikely that WMP can be proved within...... the framework of Bishop-style mathematics (which has been open for about 20 years). The underivability even holds if the ine.ective schema of full comprehension (in all types) for negated formulas (in particular for -free formulas) is added, which allows one to derive the law of excluded middle...

  12. Nonlinear Markov processes: Deterministic case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.D.

    2008-01-01

    Deterministic Markov processes that exhibit nonlinear transition mechanisms for probability densities are studied. In this context, the following issues are addressed: Markov property, conditional probability densities, propagation of probability densities, multistability in terms of multiple stationary distributions, stability analysis of stationary distributions, and basin of attraction of stationary distribution

  13. Flux through a Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Floriani, Elena; Lima, Ricardo; Ourrad, Ouerdia; Spinelli, Lionel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The flux through a Markov chain of a conserved quantity (mass) is studied. • Mass is supplied by an external source and ends in the absorbing states of the chain. • Meaningful for modeling open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property. • The analytical expression of mass distribution is given for a constant source. • The expression of mass distribution is given for periodic or random sources. - Abstract: In this paper we study the flux through a finite Markov chain of a quantity, that we will call mass, which moves through the states of the chain according to the Markov transition probabilities. Mass is supplied by an external source and accumulates in the absorbing states of the chain. We believe that studying how this conserved quantity evolves through the transient (non-absorbing) states of the chain could be useful for the modelization of open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property.

  14. Regeneration and general Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Kalashnikov

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Ergodicity, continuity, finite approximations and rare visits of general Markov chains are investigated. The obtained results permit further quantitative analysis of characteristics, such as, rates of convergence, continuity (measured as a distance between perturbed and non-perturbed characteristics, deviations between Markov chains, accuracy of approximations and bounds on the distribution function of the first visit time to a chosen subset, etc. The underlying techniques use the embedding of the general Markov chain into a wide sense regenerative process with the help of splitting construction.

  15. Markov chains theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Sericola, Bruno

    2013-01-01

    Markov chains are a fundamental class of stochastic processes. They are widely used to solve problems in a large number of domains such as operational research, computer science, communication networks and manufacturing systems. The success of Markov chains is mainly due to their simplicity of use, the large number of available theoretical results and the quality of algorithms developed for the numerical evaluation of many metrics of interest.The author presents the theory of both discrete-time and continuous-time homogeneous Markov chains. He carefully examines the explosion phenomenon, the

  16. Quadratic Variation by Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Horel, Guillaume

    We introduce a novel estimator of the quadratic variation that is based on the the- ory of Markov chains. The estimator is motivated by some general results concerning filtering contaminated semimartingales. Specifically, we show that filtering can in prin- ciple remove the effects of market...... microstructure noise in a general framework where little is assumed about the noise. For the practical implementation, we adopt the dis- crete Markov chain model that is well suited for the analysis of financial high-frequency prices. The Markov chain framework facilitates simple expressions and elegant analyti...

  17. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Systat Software Asia-Pacific. Ltd., in Bangalore, where the technical work for the development of the statistical software Systat takes ... In Part 4, we discuss some applications of the Markov ... one can construct the joint probability distribution of.

  18. Reviving Markov processes and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, H.

    1988-01-01

    In this dissertation we study a procedure which restarts a Markov process when the process is killed by some arbitrary multiplicative functional. The regenerative nature of this revival procedure is characterized through a Markov renewal equation. An interesting duality between the revival procedure and the classical killing operation is found. Under the condition that the multiplicative functional possesses an intensity, the generators of the revival process can be written down explicitly. An intimate connection is also found between the perturbation of the sample path of a Markov process and the perturbation of a generator (in Kato's sense). The applications of the theory include the study of the processes like piecewise-deterministic Markov process, virtual waiting time process and the first entrance decomposition (taboo probability)

  19. Confluence reduction for Markov automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  20. Confluence Reduction for Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Braberman, Victor; Fribourg, Laurent

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  1. Automated generation of partial Markov chain from high level descriptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brameret, P.-A.; Rauzy, A.; Roussel, J.-M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose an algorithm to generate partial Markov chains from high level implicit descriptions, namely AltaRica models. This algorithm relies on two components. First, a variation on Dijkstra's algorithm to compute shortest paths in a graph. Second, the definition of a notion of distance to select which states must be kept and which can be safely discarded. The proposed method solves two problems at once. First, it avoids a manual construction of Markov chains, which is both tedious and error prone. Second, up the price of acceptable approximations, it makes it possible to push back dramatically the exponential blow-up of the size of the resulting chains. We report experimental results that show the efficiency of the proposed approach. - Highlights: • We generate Markov chains from a higher level safety modeling language (AltaRica). • We use a variation on Dijkstra's algorithm to generate partial Markov chains. • Hence we solve two problems: the first problem is the tedious manual construction of Markov chains. • The second problem is the blow-up of the size of the chains, at the cost of decent approximations. • The experimental results highlight the efficiency of the method

  2. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  3. Neuroevolution Mechanism for Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a statistical model based on probabilities. HMM is becoming one of the major models involved in many applications such as natural language
    processing, handwritten recognition, image processing, prediction systems and many more. In this research we are concerned with finding out the best HMM for a certain application domain. We propose a neuroevolution process that is based first on converting the HMM to a neural network, then generating many neural networks at random where each represents a HMM. We proceed by
    applying genetic operators to obtain new set of neural networks where each represents HMMs, and updating the population. Finally select the best neural network based on a fitness function.

  4. Harmonic spectral components in time sequences of Markov correlated events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzetti, Piero; Carbone, Anna

    2017-07-01

    The paper concerns the analysis of the conditions allowing time sequences of Markov correlated events give rise to a line power spectrum having a relevant physical interest. It is found that by specializing the Markov matrix in order to represent closed loop sequences of events with arbitrary distribution, generated in a steady physical condition, a large set of line spectra, covering all possible frequency values, is obtained. The amplitude of the spectral lines is given by a matrix equation based on a generalized Markov matrix involving the Fourier transform of the distribution functions representing the time intervals between successive events of the sequence. The paper is a complement of a previous work where a general expression for the continuous power spectrum was given. In that case the Markov matrix was left in a more general form, thus preventing the possibility of finding line spectra of physical interest. The present extension is also suggested by the interest of explaining the emergence of a broad set of waves found in the electro and magneto-encephalograms, whose frequency ranges from 0.5 to about 40Hz, in terms of the effects produced by chains of firing neurons within the complex neural network of the brain. An original model based on synchronized closed loop sequences of firing neurons is proposed, and a few numerical simulations are reported as an application of the above cited equation.

  5. Maximizing Entropy over Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2013-01-01

    The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of an system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code....

  6. Maximizing entropy over Markov processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2014-01-01

    The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of a system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code. © 2014 Elsevier...

  7. Markov Networks in Evolutionary Computation

    CERN Document Server

    Shakya, Siddhartha

    2012-01-01

    Markov networks and other probabilistic graphical modes have recently received an upsurge in attention from Evolutionary computation community, particularly in the area of Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs).  EDAs have arisen as one of the most successful experiences in the application of machine learning methods in optimization, mainly due to their efficiency to solve complex real-world optimization problems and their suitability for theoretical analysis. This book focuses on the different steps involved in the conception, implementation and application of EDAs that use Markov networks, and undirected models in general. It can serve as a general introduction to EDAs but covers also an important current void in the study of these algorithms by explaining the specificities and benefits of modeling optimization problems by means of undirected probabilistic models. All major developments to date in the progressive introduction of Markov networks based EDAs are reviewed in the book. Hot current researc...

  8. Improved hidden Markov model for nosocomial infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, Karim; Leecaster, Molly; Greene, Tom; Samore, Matthew; Thomas, Alun

    2014-12-01

    We propose a novel hidden Markov model (HMM) for parameter estimation in hospital transmission models, and show that commonly made simplifying assumptions can lead to severe model misspecification and poor parameter estimates. A standard HMM that embodies two commonly made simplifying assumptions, namely a fixed patient count and binomially distributed detections is compared with a new alternative HMM that does not require these simplifying assumptions. Using simulated data, we demonstrate how each of the simplifying assumptions used by the standard model leads to model misspecification, whereas the alternative model results in accurate parameter estimates. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

  9. Markov chains and mixing times

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, David A; Wilmer, Elizabeth L

    2009-01-01

    This book is an introduction to the modern approach to the theory of Markov chains. The main goal of this approach is to determine the rate of convergence of a Markov chain to the stationary distribution as a function of the size and geometry of the state space. The authors develop the key tools for estimating convergence times, including coupling, strong stationary times, and spectral methods. Whenever possible, probabilistic methods are emphasized. The book includes many examples and provides brief introductions to some central models of statistical mechanics. Also provided are accounts of r

  10. Consistency and refinement for Interval Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delahaye, Benoit; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2012-01-01

    Interval Markov Chains (IMC), or Markov Chains with probability intervals in the transition matrix, are the base of a classic specification theory for probabilistic systems [18]. The standard semantics of IMCs assigns to a specification the set of all Markov Chains that satisfy its interval...

  11. A Markov reward model checker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.; Maneesh Khattri, M.; Zapreev, I.S.; Zapreev, I.S.

    2005-01-01

    This short tool paper introduces MRMC, a model checker for discrete-time and continuous-time Markov reward models. It supports reward extensions of PCTL and CSL, and allows for the automated verification of properties concerning long-run and instantaneous rewards as well as cumulative rewards. In

  12. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  13. Markov Decision Processes in Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Dijk, N.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is over 30 years ago since D.J. White started his series of surveys on practical applications of Markov decision processes (MDP), over 20 years after the phenomenal book by Martin Puterman on the theory of MDP, and over 10 years since Eugene A. Feinberg and Adam Shwartz published their Handbook

  14. Variable context Markov chains for HIV protease cleavage site prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oğul, Hasan

    2009-06-01

    Deciphering the knowledge of HIV protease specificity and developing computational tools for detecting its cleavage sites in protein polypeptide chain are very desirable for designing efficient and specific chemical inhibitors to prevent acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. In this study, we developed a generative model based on a generalization of variable order Markov chains (VOMC) for peptide sequences and adapted the model for prediction of their cleavability by certain proteases. The new method, called variable context Markov chains (VCMC), attempts to identify the context equivalence based on the evolutionary similarities between individual amino acids. It was applied for HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction problem and shown to outperform existing methods in terms of prediction accuracy on a common dataset. In general, the method is a promising tool for prediction of cleavage sites of all proteases and encouraged to be used for any kind of peptide classification problem as well.

  15. Sentiment classification technology based on Markov logic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hui; Li, Zhigang; Yao, Chongchong; Zhang, Weizhe

    2016-07-01

    With diverse online media emerging, there is a growing concern of sentiment classification problem. At present, text sentiment classification mainly utilizes supervised machine learning methods, which feature certain domain dependency. On the basis of Markov logic networks (MLNs), this study proposed a cross-domain multi-task text sentiment classification method rooted in transfer learning. Through many-to-one knowledge transfer, labeled text sentiment classification, knowledge was successfully transferred into other domains, and the precision of the sentiment classification analysis in the text tendency domain was improved. The experimental results revealed the following: (1) the model based on a MLN demonstrated higher precision than the single individual learning plan model. (2) Multi-task transfer learning based on Markov logical networks could acquire more knowledge than self-domain learning. The cross-domain text sentiment classification model could significantly improve the precision and efficiency of text sentiment classification.

  16. Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit

    1989-01-01

    Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

  17. The three names

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bas Jongenelen

    2011-01-01

    Two spectators are each asked to think of a girl's name (because your sister in law is pregnant and names are a big issue at the moment in your family.) You explain that you have a boy's name in your head, and you ask the spectators to think what this boy's name might be. You write three names on a

  18. Tagging Named Entities in Croatian Tweets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krešimir Baksa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Named entity extraction tools designed for recognizing named entities in texts written in standard language (e.g., news stories or legal texts have been shown to be inadequate for user-generated textual content (e.g., tweets, forum posts. In this work, we propose a supervised approach to named entity recognition and classification for Croatian tweets. We compare two sequence labelling models: a hidden Markov model (HMM and conditional random fields (CRF. Our experiments reveal that CRF is the best model for the task, achieving a very good performance of over 87% micro-averaged F1 score. We analyse the contributions of different feature groups and influence of the training set size on the performance of the CRF model.

  19. Cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization: a Markov decision-analytic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, Lobke M.; Broekmans, Frank J. M.; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.

    2011-01-01

    To compare the cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization (IVF). A Markov decision model based on data from the literature and original patient data. Decision analytic framework. Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women aged 20 to 45 years who are eligible for IVF.

  20. Cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization : a Markov decision-analytic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, Lobke M.; Broekmans, Frank J. M.; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To compare the cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization (IVF). Design: A Markov decision model based on data from the literature and original patient data. Setting: Decision analytic framework. Patient(s): Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women aged

  1. Markov chains and mixing times

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, David A

    2017-01-01

    Markov Chains and Mixing Times is a magical book, managing to be both friendly and deep. It gently introduces probabilistic techniques so that an outsider can follow. At the same time, it is the first book covering the geometric theory of Markov chains and has much that will be new to experts. It is certainly THE book that I will use to teach from. I recommend it to all comers, an amazing achievement. -Persi Diaconis, Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics, Stanford University Mixing times are an active research topic within many fields from statistical physics to the theory of algorithms, as well as having intrinsic interest within mathematical probability and exploiting discrete analogs of important geometry concepts. The first edition became an instant classic, being accessible to advanced undergraduates and yet bringing readers close to current research frontiers. This second edition adds chapters on monotone chains, the exclusion process and hitting time parameters. Having both exercises...

  2. Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, H Robert; McCray, Alexa T

    2012-02-03

    Biomedical ontologies have become an increasingly critical lens through which researchers analyze the genomic, clinical and bibliographic data that fuels scientific research. Of particular relevance are methods, such as enrichment analysis, that quantify the importance of ontology classes relative to a collection of domain data. Current analytical techniques, however, remain limited in their ability to handle many important types of structural complexity encountered in real biological systems including class overlaps, continuously valued data, inter-instance relationships, non-hierarchical relationships between classes, semantic distance and sparse data. In this paper, we describe a methodology called Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA) and illustrate its use through a MCOA-based enrichment analysis application based on a generative model of gene activation. MCOA models the classes in an ontology, the instances from an associated dataset and all directional inter-class, class-to-instance and inter-instance relationships as a single finite ergodic Markov chain. The adjusted transition probability matrix for this Markov chain enables the calculation of eigenvector values that quantify the importance of each ontology class relative to other classes and the associated data set members. On both controlled Gene Ontology (GO) data sets created with Escherichia coli, Drosophila melanogaster and Homo sapiens annotations and real gene expression data extracted from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), the MCOA enrichment analysis approach provides the best performance of comparable state-of-the-art methods. A methodology based on Markov chain models and network analytic metrics can help detect the relevant signal within large, highly interdependent and noisy data sets and, for applications such as enrichment analysis, has been shown to generate superior performance on both real and simulated data relative to existing state-of-the-art approaches.

  3. Markov processes characterization and convergence

    CERN Document Server

    Ethier, Stewart N

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."[A]nyone who works with Markov processes whose state space is uncountably infinite will need this most impressive book as a guide and reference."-American Scientist"There is no question but that space should immediately be reserved for [this] book on the library shelf. Those who aspire to mastery of the contents should also reserve a large number of long winter evenings."-Zentralblatt f?r Mathematik und ihre Grenzgebiete/Mathematics Abstracts"Ethier and Kurtz have produced an excellent treatment of the modern theory of Markov processes that [is] useful both as a reference work and as a graduate textbook."-Journal of Statistical PhysicsMarkov Proce...

  4. What's in a Name

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Sarah B.; Albanese, Judith; Karp, Karen S.

    2016-01-01

    Historically, some baby names have been more popular during a specific time span, whereas other names are considered timeless. The Internet article, "How to Tell Someone's Age When All You Know Is Her Name" (Silver and McCann 2014), describes the phenomenon of the rise and fall of name popularity, which served as a catalyst for the…

  5. British Sign Name Customs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Linda; Sutton-Spence, Rachel

    2010-01-01

    Research presented here describes the sign names and the customs of name allocation within the British Deaf community. While some aspects of British Sign Language sign names and British Deaf naming customs differ from those in most Western societies, there are many similarities. There are also similarities with other societies outside the more…

  6. Comparison of Langevin and Markov channel noise models for neuronal signal generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengupta, B; Laughlin, S B; Niven, J E

    2010-01-01

    The stochastic opening and closing of voltage-gated ion channels produce noise in neurons. The effect of this noise on the neuronal performance has been modeled using either an approximate or Langevin model based on stochastic differential equations or an exact model based on a Markov process model of channel gating. Yet whether the Langevin model accurately reproduces the channel noise produced by the Markov model remains unclear. Here we present a comparison between Langevin and Markov models of channel noise in neurons using single compartment Hodgkin-Huxley models containing either Na+ and K+, or only K+ voltage-gated ion channels. The performance of the Langevin and Markov models was quantified over a range of stimulus statistics, membrane areas, and channel numbers. We find that in comparison to the Markov model, the Langevin model underestimates the noise contributed by voltage-gated ion channels, overestimating information rates for both spiking and nonspiking membranes. Even with increasing numbers of channels, the difference between the two models persists. This suggests that the Langevin model may not be suitable for accurately simulating channel noise in neurons, even in simulations with large numbers of ion channels.

  7. Verification of Open Interactive Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Brazdil, Tomas; Hermanns, Holger; Krcal, Jan; Kretinsky, Jan; Rehak, Vojtech

    2012-01-01

    Interactive Markov chains (IMC) are compositional behavioral models extending both labeled transition systems and continuous-time Markov chains. IMC pair modeling convenience - owed to compositionality properties - with effective verification algorithms and tools - owed to Markov properties. Thus far however, IMC verification did not consider compositionality properties, but considered closed systems. This paper discusses the evaluation of IMC in an open and thus compositional interpretation....

  8. Spectral methods for quantum Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szehr, Oleg

    2014-05-08

    The aim of this project is to contribute to our understanding of quantum time evolutions, whereby we focus on quantum Markov chains. The latter constitute a natural generalization of the ubiquitous concept of a classical Markov chain to describe evolutions of quantum mechanical systems. We contribute to the theory of such processes by introducing novel methods that allow us to relate the eigenvalue spectrum of the transition map to convergence as well as stability properties of the Markov chain.

  9. Spectral methods for quantum Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szehr, Oleg

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this project is to contribute to our understanding of quantum time evolutions, whereby we focus on quantum Markov chains. The latter constitute a natural generalization of the ubiquitous concept of a classical Markov chain to describe evolutions of quantum mechanical systems. We contribute to the theory of such processes by introducing novel methods that allow us to relate the eigenvalue spectrum of the transition map to convergence as well as stability properties of the Markov chain.

  10. A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    If ($C_n$) a Markov chain on a discrete state space $S$, a Markov chain ($C_n, M_n$) on the product space $S \\times S$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain behaves like the original Markov chain and the second component changes only when both

  11. Criterion of Semi-Markov Dependent Risk Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yun MO; Xiang Qun YANG

    2014-01-01

    A rigorous definition of semi-Markov dependent risk model is given. This model is a generalization of the Markov dependent risk model. A criterion and necessary conditions of semi-Markov dependent risk model are obtained. The results clarify relations between elements among semi-Markov dependent risk model more clear and are applicable for Markov dependent risk model.

  12. Distribution of Chinese names

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ding-wei

    2013-03-01

    We present a statistical model for the distribution of Chinese names. Both family names and given names are studied on the same basis. With naive expectation, the distribution of family names can be very different from that of given names. One is affected mostly by genealogy, while the other can be dominated by cultural effects. However, we find that both distributions can be well described by the same model. Various scaling behaviors can be understood as a result of stochastic processes. The exponents of different power-law distributions are controlled by a single parameter. We also comment on the significance of full-name repetition in Chinese population.

  13. Quasi-Feller Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean B. Lasserre

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the class of Markov kernels for which the weak or strong Feller property fails to hold at some discontinuity set. We provide a simple necessary and sufficient condition for existence of an invariant probability measure as well as a Foster-Lyapunov sufficient condition. We also characterize a subclass, the quasi (weak or strong Feller kernels, for which the sequences of expected occupation measures share the same asymptotic properties as for (weak or strong Feller kernels. In particular, it is shown that the sequences of expected occupation measures of strong and quasi strong-Feller kernels with an invariant probability measure converge setwise to an invariant measure.

  14. Markov process of muscle motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratiev, Yu; Pechersky, E; Pirogov, S

    2008-01-01

    We study a Markov random process describing muscle molecular motor behaviour. Every motor is either bound up with a thin filament or unbound. In the bound state the motor creates a force proportional to its displacement from the neutral position. In both states the motor spends an exponential time depending on the state. The thin filament moves at a velocity proportional to the average of all displacements of all motors. We assume that the time which a motor stays in the bound state does not depend on its displacement. Then one can find an exact solution of a nonlinear equation appearing in the limit of an infinite number of motors

  15. Weighted-indexed semi-Markov models for modeling financial returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D’Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains for studying the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted-indexed semi-Markov chain model. We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the model is able to reproduce important stylized facts of financial time series such as the first-passage-time distributions and the persistence of volatility. The model is applied to data from the Italian and German stock markets from 1 January 2007 until the end of December 2010. (paper)

  16. Semi-Markov Chains and Hidden Semi-Markov Models toward Applications Their Use in Reliability and DNA Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Vlad

    2008-01-01

    Semi-Markov processes are much more general and better adapted to applications than the Markov ones because sojourn times in any state can be arbitrarily distributed, as opposed to the geometrically distributed sojourn time in the Markov case. This book concerns with the estimation of discrete-time semi-Markov and hidden semi-Markov processes

  17. Marine Place Names

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains the geographic place names for features in the U.S territorial waters and outer continental shelf. These names can be used to find or define a...

  18. Naming as Strategic Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmeltz, Line; Kjeldsen, Anna Karina

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a framework for understanding corporate name change as strategic communication. From a corporate branding perspective, the choice of a new name can be seen as a wish to stand out from a group of similar organizations. Conversely, from an institutional perspective, name change...

  19. Timed Comparisons of Semi-Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mathias Ruggaard; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Bacci, Giorgio

    2018-01-01

    -Markov processes, and investigate the question of how to compare two semi-Markov processes with respect to their time-dependent behaviour. To this end, we introduce the relation of being “faster than” between processes and study its algorithmic complexity. Through a connection to probabilistic automata we obtain...

  20. Probabilistic Reachability for Parametric Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahn, Ernst Moritz; Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun

    2011-01-01

    Given a parametric Markov model, we consider the problem of computing the rational function expressing the probability of reaching a given set of states. To attack this principal problem, Daws has suggested to first convert the Markov chain into a finite automaton, from which a regular expression...

  1. Inhomogeneous Markov point processes by transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Eva B. Vedel; Nielsen, Linda Stougaard

    2000-01-01

    We construct parametrized models for point processes, allowing for both inhomogeneity and interaction. The inhomogeneity is obtained by applying parametrized transformations to homogeneous Markov point processes. An interesting model class, which can be constructed by this transformation approach......, is that of exponential inhomogeneous Markov point processes. Statistical inference For such processes is discussed in some detail....

  2. Markov-modulated and feedback fluid queues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.

    1998-01-01

    In the last twenty years the field of Markov-modulated fluid queues has received considerable attention. In these models a fluid reservoir receives and/or releases fluid at rates which depend on the actual state of a background Markov chain. In the first chapter of this thesis we give a short

  3. Some strong limit theorems for nonhomogeneous Markov chains indexed by controlled trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weicai Peng

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, a kind of infinite, local finite tree T, named a controlled tree, is introduced. Some strong limit properties, such as the strong law of large numbers and the asymptotic equipartition property, for nonhomogeneous Markov chains indexed by T, are established. The outcomes are the generalizations of some well-known results.

  4. Classification Using Markov Blanket for Feature Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Luo, Jian

    2009-01-01

    Selecting relevant features is in demand when a large data set is of interest in a classification task. It produces a tractable number of features that are sufficient and possibly improve the classification performance. This paper studies a statistical method of Markov blanket induction algorithm...... for filtering features and then applies a classifier using the Markov blanket predictors. The Markov blanket contains a minimal subset of relevant features that yields optimal classification performance. We experimentally demonstrate the improved performance of several classifiers using a Markov blanket...... induction as a feature selection method. In addition, we point out an important assumption behind the Markov blanket induction algorithm and show its effect on the classification performance....

  5. Quantum Markov Chain Mixing and Dissipative Engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kastoryano, Michael James

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is the fruit of investigations on the extension of ideas of Markov chain mixing to the quantum setting, and its application to problems of dissipative engineering. A Markov chain describes a statistical process where the probability of future events depends only on the state...... of the system at the present point in time, but not on the history of events. Very many important processes in nature are of this type, therefore a good understanding of their behaviour has turned out to be very fruitful for science. Markov chains always have a non-empty set of limiting distributions...... (stationary states). The aim of Markov chain mixing is to obtain (upper and/or lower) bounds on the number of steps it takes for the Markov chain to reach a stationary state. The natural quantum extensions of these notions are density matrices and quantum channels. We set out to develop a general mathematical...

  6. The Bacterial Sequential Markov Coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Maio, Nicola; Wilson, Daniel J

    2017-05-01

    Bacteria can exchange and acquire new genetic material from other organisms directly and via the environment. This process, known as bacterial recombination, has a strong impact on the evolution of bacteria, for example, leading to the spread of antibiotic resistance across clades and species, and to the avoidance of clonal interference. Recombination hinders phylogenetic and transmission inference because it creates patterns of substitutions (homoplasies) inconsistent with the hypothesis of a single evolutionary tree. Bacterial recombination is typically modeled as statistically akin to gene conversion in eukaryotes, i.e. , using the coalescent with gene conversion (CGC). However, this model can be very computationally demanding as it needs to account for the correlations of evolutionary histories of even distant loci. So, with the increasing popularity of whole genome sequencing, the need has emerged for a faster approach to model and simulate bacterial genome evolution. We present a new model that approximates the coalescent with gene conversion: the bacterial sequential Markov coalescent (BSMC). Our approach is based on a similar idea to the sequential Markov coalescent (SMC)-an approximation of the coalescent with crossover recombination. However, bacterial recombination poses hurdles to a sequential Markov approximation, as it leads to strong correlations and linkage disequilibrium across very distant sites in the genome. Our BSMC overcomes these difficulties, and shows a considerable reduction in computational demand compared to the exact CGC, and very similar patterns in simulated data. We implemented our BSMC model within new simulation software FastSimBac. In addition to the decreased computational demand compared to previous bacterial genome evolution simulators, FastSimBac provides more general options for evolutionary scenarios, allowing population structure with migration, speciation, population size changes, and recombination hotspots. FastSimBac is

  7. Schmidt games and Markov partitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Jimmy

    2009-01-01

    Let T be a C 2 -expanding self-map of a compact, connected, C ∞ , Riemannian manifold M. We correct a minor gap in the proof of a theorem from the literature: the set of points whose forward orbits are nondense has full Hausdorff dimension. Our correction allows us to strengthen the theorem. Combining the correction with Schmidt games, we generalize the theorem in dimension one: given a point x 0 in M, the set of points whose forward orbit closures miss x 0 is a winning set. Finally, our key lemma, the no matching lemma, may be of independent interest in the theory of symbolic dynamics or the theory of Markov partitions

  8. The Name Game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawley, Sharon J.

    Described is a game which provides a method for teaching students to locate cities and towns on a map. Students are provided with a list of descriptive phrases which stand for the name of a city, e.g., hot weather town (Summerville, Georgia); a chocolate candy bar (Hershey, Pennsylvania). Using a map, students must then try to find the name of a…

  9. Directory of awardee names

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1999-07-01

    Standardization of grant and contract awardee names has been an area of concern since the development of the Department`s Procurement and Assistance Data System (PADS). A joint effort was begun in 1983 by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) and the Office of Procurement and Assistance Management/Information Systems and Analysis Division to develop a means for providing uniformity of awardee names. As a result of this effort, a method of assigning vendor identification codes to each unique awardee name, division, city, and state combination was developed and is maintained by OSTI. Changes to vendor identification codes or awardee names contained in PADS can be made only by OSTI. Awardee names in the Directory indicate that the awardee has had a prime contract (excluding purchase orders of $10,000 or less) with, or a financial assistance award from, the Department. Award status--active, inactive, or retired--is not shown. The Directory is in alphabetic sequence based on awardee name and reflects the OSTI-assigned vendor identification code to the right of the name. A vendor identification code is assigned to each unique awardee name, division, city, and state (for place of performance). The same vendor identification code is used for awards throughout the Department.

  10. The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Sheng; Chi, Kun; Zhang, Qiyi; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2012-03-01

    Compared with traditional real-time forecasting, this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area. The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model. The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values, and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information. The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps: 1) establish the GM (1, 1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2, and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy. The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin, China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps. Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence. Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data. The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary. The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable. The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

  11. Finite Markov processes and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Iosifescu, Marius

    2007-01-01

    A self-contained treatment of finite Markov chains and processes, this text covers both theory and applications. Author Marius Iosifescu, vice president of the Romanian Academy and director of its Center for Mathematical Statistics, begins with a review of relevant aspects of probability theory and linear algebra. Experienced readers may start with the second chapter, a treatment of fundamental concepts of homogeneous finite Markov chain theory that offers examples of applicable models.The text advances to studies of two basic types of homogeneous finite Markov chains: absorbing and ergodic ch

  12. Markov chains models, algorithms and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K; Siu, Tak-Kuen

    2013-01-01

    This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data.This book consists of eight chapters.  Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods

  13. Markov chains analytic and Monte Carlo computations

    CERN Document Server

    Graham, Carl

    2014-01-01

    Markov Chains: Analytic and Monte Carlo Computations introduces the main notions related to Markov chains and provides explanations on how to characterize, simulate, and recognize them. Starting with basic notions, this book leads progressively to advanced and recent topics in the field, allowing the reader to master the main aspects of the classical theory. This book also features: Numerous exercises with solutions as well as extended case studies.A detailed and rigorous presentation of Markov chains with discrete time and state space.An appendix presenting probabilistic notions that are nec

  14. A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe

    Motivated by an original on-line page-ranking algorithm, starting from an arbitrary Markov chain $(C_n)$ on a discrete state space ${\\cal S}$, a Markov chain $(C_n,M_n)$ on the product space ${\\cal S}^2$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain

  15. Segmentation of laser range radar images using hidden Markov field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pucar, P.

    1993-01-01

    Segmentation of images in the context of model based stochastic techniques is connected with high, very often unpracticle computational complexity. The objective with this thesis is to take the models used in model based image processing, simplify and use them in suboptimal, but not computationally demanding algorithms. Algorithms that are essentially one-dimensional, and their extensions to two dimensions are given. The model used in this thesis is the well known hidden Markov model. Estimation of the number of hidden states from observed data is a problem that is addressed. The state order estimation problem is of general interest and is not specifically connected to image processing. An investigation of three state order estimation techniques for hidden Markov models is given. 76 refs

  16. Name agreement in picture naming : An ERP study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Xiaorong; Schafer, Graham; Akyürek, Elkan G.

    Name agreement is the extent to which different people agree on a name for a particular picture. Previous studies have found that it takes longer to name low name agreement pictures than high name agreement pictures. To examine the effect of name agreement in the online process of picture naming, we

  17. Optimizing Availability of a Framework in Series Configuration Utilizing Markov Model and Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansoor Ahmed Siddiqui

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This research work is aimed at optimizing the availability of a framework comprising of two units linked together in series configuration utilizing Markov Model and Monte Carlo (MC Simulation techniques. In this article, effort has been made to develop a maintenance model that incorporates three distinct states for each unit, while taking into account their different levels of deterioration. Calculations are carried out using the proposed model for two distinct cases of corrective repair, namely perfect and imperfect repairs, with as well as without opportunistic maintenance. Initially, results are accomplished using an analytical technique i.e., Markov Model. Validation of the results achieved is later carried out with the help of MC Simulation. In addition, MC Simulation based codes also work well for the frameworks that follow non-exponential failure and repair rates, and thus overcome the limitations offered by the Markov Model.

  18. Uncovering and testing the fuzzy clusters based on lumped Markov chain in complex network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Fan; Jianbin, Xie; Jinlong, Wang; Jinshuai, Qu

    2013-01-01

    Identifying clusters, namely groups of nodes with comparatively strong internal connectivity, is a fundamental task for deeply understanding the structure and function of a network. By means of a lumped Markov chain model of a random walker, we propose two novel ways of inferring the lumped markov transition matrix. Furthermore, some useful results are proposed based on the analysis of the properties of the lumped Markov process. To find the best partition of complex networks, a novel framework including two algorithms for network partition based on the optimal lumped Markovian dynamics is derived to solve this problem. The algorithms are constructed to minimize the objective function under this framework. It is demonstrated by the simulation experiments that our algorithms can efficiently determine the probabilities with which a node belongs to different clusters during the learning process and naturally supports the fuzzy partition. Moreover, they are successfully applied to real-world network, including the social interactions between members of a karate club.

  19. Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

    2017-07-01

    The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

  20. Observation uncertainty in reversible Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzner, Philipp; Weber, Marcus; Schütte, Christof

    2010-09-01

    In many applications one is interested in finding a simplified model which captures the essential dynamical behavior of a real life process. If the essential dynamics can be assumed to be (approximately) memoryless then a reasonable choice for a model is a Markov model whose parameters are estimated by means of Bayesian inference from an observed time series. We propose an efficient Monte Carlo Markov chain framework to assess the uncertainty of the Markov model and related observables. The derived Gibbs sampler allows for sampling distributions of transition matrices subject to reversibility and/or sparsity constraints. The performance of the suggested sampling scheme is demonstrated and discussed for a variety of model examples. The uncertainty analysis of functions of the Markov model under investigation is discussed in application to the identification of conformations of the trialanine molecule via Robust Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+) .

  1. Generated dynamics of Markov and quantum processes

    CERN Document Server

    Janßen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This book presents Markov and quantum processes as two sides of a coin called generated stochastic processes. It deals with quantum processes as reversible stochastic processes generated by one-step unitary operators, while Markov processes are irreversible stochastic processes generated by one-step stochastic operators. The characteristic feature of quantum processes are oscillations, interference, lots of stationary states in bounded systems and possible asymptotic stationary scattering states in open systems, while the characteristic feature of Markov processes are relaxations to a single stationary state. Quantum processes apply to systems where all variables, that control reversibility, are taken as relevant variables, while Markov processes emerge when some of those variables cannot be followed and are thus irrelevant for the dynamic description. Their absence renders the dynamic irreversible. A further aim is to demonstrate that almost any subdiscipline of theoretical physics can conceptually be put in...

  2. Confluence reduction for Markov automata (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  3. "Name" that Animal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, Shirley

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author describes a texture and pattern project. Students started by doing an outline contour drawing of an animal. With the outline drawn, the students then write one of their names to fit "inside" the animal.

  4. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Ruth; Langrock, Roland

    2016-06-01

    We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process involves the assumption that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using, for example, a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example, on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  5. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  6. Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....

  7. Subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fagnola, Franco; Rebolledo, Rolando

    2002-01-01

    This article introduces a concept of subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup, in view of characterizing the support projection of a stationary state in terms of the semigroup generator. These results, together with those of our previous article [J. Math. Phys. 42, 1296 (2001)], lead to a method for proving the existence of faithful stationary states. This is often crucial in the analysis of ergodic properties of quantum Markov semigroups. The method is illustrated by applications to physical models

  8. Transition Effect Matrices and Quantum Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudder, Stan

    2009-06-01

    A transition effect matrix (TEM) is a quantum generalization of a classical stochastic matrix. By employing a TEM we obtain a quantum generalization of a classical Markov chain. We first discuss state and operator dynamics for a quantum Markov chain. We then consider various types of TEMs and vector states. In particular, we study invariant, equilibrium and singular vector states and investigate projective, bistochastic, invertible and unitary TEMs.

  9. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, T D [Center for the Ecological Study of Perception and Action, Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut, 406 Babbidge Road, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States)

    2008-07-18

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  10. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T D

    2008-01-01

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  11. Markov Processes in Image Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

    2018-05-01

    Digital images are used as an information carrier in different sciences and technologies. The aspiration to increase the number of bits in the image pixels for the purpose of obtaining more information is observed. In the paper, some methods of compression and contour detection on the basis of two-dimensional Markov chain are offered. Increasing the number of bits on the image pixels will allow one to allocate fine object details more precisely, but it significantly complicates image processing. The methods of image processing do not concede by the efficiency to well-known analogues, but surpass them in processing speed. An image is separated into binary images, and processing is carried out in parallel with each without an increase in speed, when increasing the number of bits on the image pixels. One more advantage of methods is the low consumption of energy resources. Only logical procedures are used and there are no computing operations. The methods can be useful in processing images of any class and assignment in processing systems with a limited time and energy resources.

  12. Fitting Hidden Markov Models to Psychological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Visser

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Markov models have been used extensively in psychology of learning. Applications of hidden Markov models are rare however. This is partially due to the fact that comprehensive statistics for model selection and model assessment are lacking in the psychological literature. We present model selection and model assessment statistics that are particularly useful in applying hidden Markov models in psychology. These statistics are presented and evaluated by simulation studies for a toy example. We compare AIC, BIC and related criteria and introduce a prediction error measure for assessing goodness-of-fit. In a simulation study, two methods of fitting equality constraints are compared. In two illustrative examples with experimental data we apply selection criteria, fit models with constraints and assess goodness-of-fit. First, data from a concept identification task is analyzed. Hidden Markov models provide a flexible approach to analyzing such data when compared to other modeling methods. Second, a novel application of hidden Markov models in implicit learning is presented. Hidden Markov models are used in this context to quantify knowledge that subjects express in an implicit learning task. This method of analyzing implicit learning data provides a comprehensive approach for addressing important theoretical issues in the field.

  13. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiq, N.

    2015-01-01

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  14. Saliency Detection via Absorbing Markov Chain With Learnt Transition Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lihe Zhang; Jianwu Ai; Bowen Jiang; Huchuan Lu; Xiukui Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency model based on absorbing Markov chain (AMC). First, a sparsely connected graph is constructed to capture the local context information of each node. All image boundary nodes and other nodes are, respectively, treated as the absorbing nodes and transient nodes in the absorbing Markov chain. Then, the expected number of times from each transient node to all other transient nodes can be used to represent the saliency value of this node. The absorbed time depends on the weights on the path and their spatial coordinates, which are completely encoded in the transition probability matrix. Considering the importance of this matrix, we adopt different hierarchies of deep features extracted from fully convolutional networks and learn a transition probability matrix, which is called learnt transition probability matrix. Although the performance is significantly promoted, salient objects are not uniformly highlighted very well. To solve this problem, an angular embedding technique is investigated to refine the saliency results. Based on pairwise local orderings, which are produced by the saliency maps of AMC and boundary maps, we rearrange the global orderings (saliency value) of all nodes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six publicly available benchmark data sets.

  15. Model Based Temporal Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Marla J.; Spinrad, Paul R.; Fall, Thomas C.

    1988-03-01

    Systems that assess the real world must cope with evidence that is uncertain, ambiguous, and spread over time. Typically, the most important function of an assessment system is to identify when activities are occurring that are unusual or unanticipated. Model based temporal reasoning addresses both of these requirements. The differences among temporal reasoning schemes lies in the methods used to avoid computational intractability. If we had n pieces of data and we wanted to examine how they were related, the worst case would be where we had to examine every subset of these points to see if that subset satisfied the relations. This would be 2n, which is intractable. Models compress this; if several data points are all compatible with a model, then that model represents all those data points. Data points are then considered related if they lie within the same model or if they lie in models that are related. Models thus address the intractability problem. They also address the problem of determining unusual activities if the data do not agree with models that are indicated by earlier data then something out of the norm is taking place. The models can summarize what we know up to that time, so when they are not predicting correctly, either something unusual is happening or we need to revise our models. The model based reasoner developed at Advanced Decision Systems is thus both intuitive and powerful. It is currently being used on one operational system and several prototype systems. It has enough power to be used in domains spanning the spectrum from manufacturing engineering and project management to low-intensity conflict and strategic assessment.

  16. MULTIPATH COMMUNICATIONS USING NAMES

    OpenAIRE

    Purushothama, Rashmi

    2011-01-01

    Increased host mobility, and multi-homing make IP address management very complex in applications. Due to host mobility, the IP address of a host may change dynamically, and also frequently. Multi-homing leads to multiple IP addresses for a single host. Name-based socket is a solution to address the complex IP address management. It relieves the applications from the overhead, and moves it to the operating system. It uses a constant name, instead of an IP address to establish a connection, th...

  17. Revisiting Temporal Markov Chains for Continuum modeling of Transport in Porous Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgoshaie, A. H.; Jenny, P.; Tchelepi, H.

    2017-12-01

    The transport of fluids in porous media is dominated by flow­-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying permeability field. Due to the high uncertainty in the permeability field, many realizations of the reference geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo (MC) framework. There has been strong interest in working with stochastic formulations of the transport that are different from the standard MC approach. Several stochastic models based on a velocity process for tracer particle trajectories have been proposed. Previous studies have shown that for high variances of the log-conductivity, the stochastic models need to account for correlations between consecutive velocity transitions to predict dispersion accurately. The correlated velocity models proposed in the literature can be divided into two general classes of temporal and spatial Markov models. Temporal Markov models have been applied successfully to tracer transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. These temporal models are Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with very specific drift and diffusion terms tailored for a specific permeability correlation structure. The drift and diffusion functions devised for a certain setup would not necessarily be suitable for a different scenario, (e.g., a different permeability correlation structure). The spatial Markov models are simple discrete Markov chains that do not require case specific assumptions. However, transverse spreading of contaminant plumes has not been successfully modeled with the available correlated spatial models. Here, we propose a temporal discrete Markov chain to model both the longitudinal and transverse dispersion in a two-dimensional domain. We demonstrate that these temporal Markov models are valid for different correlation structures without modification. Similar to the temporal SDEs, the proposed model respects the limited asymptotic transverse spreading of

  18. Hidden Markov Model-based Packet Loss Concealment for Voice over IP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rødbro, Christoffer A.; Murthi, Manohar N.; Andersen, Søren Vang

    2006-01-01

    As voice over IP proliferates, packet loss concealment (PLC) at the receiver has emerged as an important factor in determining voice quality of service. Through the use of heuristic variations of signal and parameter repetition and overlap-add interpolation to handle packet loss, conventional PLC...

  19. Speech Silicon: An FPGA Architecture for Real-Time Hidden Markov-Model-Based Speech Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schuster Jeffrey

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the design of an FPGA-based system-on-a-chip capable of performing continuous speech recognition on medium sized vocabularies in real time. Through the creation of three dedicated pipelines, one for each of the major operations in the system, we were able to maximize the throughput of the system while simultaneously minimizing the number of pipeline stalls in the system. Further, by implementing a token-passing scheme between the later stages of the system, the complexity of the control was greatly reduced and the amount of active data present in the system at any time was minimized. Additionally, through in-depth analysis of the SPHINX 3 large vocabulary continuous speech recognition engine, we were able to design models that could be efficiently benchmarked against a known software platform. These results, combined with the ability to reprogram the system for different recognition tasks, serve to create a system capable of performing real-time speech recognition in a vast array of environments.

  20. Speech Silicon: An FPGA Architecture for Real-Time Hidden Markov-Model-Based Speech Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex K. Jones

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the design of an FPGA-based system-on-a-chip capable of performing continuous speech recognition on medium sized vocabularies in real time. Through the creation of three dedicated pipelines, one for each of the major operations in the system, we were able to maximize the throughput of the system while simultaneously minimizing the number of pipeline stalls in the system. Further, by implementing a token-passing scheme between the later stages of the system, the complexity of the control was greatly reduced and the amount of active data present in the system at any time was minimized. Additionally, through in-depth analysis of the SPHINX 3 large vocabulary continuous speech recognition engine, we were able to design models that could be efficiently benchmarked against a known software platform. These results, combined with the ability to reprogram the system for different recognition tasks, serve to create a system capable of performing real-time speech recognition in a vast array of environments.

  1. Hidden Markov Model based Mobility Learning for Improving Indoor Tracking of Mobile Users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Nikolaj Bisgaard; Laursen, Troels; Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen

    2012-01-01

    Indoors, a user's movements are typically confined by walls, corridors, and doorways, and further he is typically repeating the same movements such as walking between certain points in the building. Conventional indoor localization systems do usually not take these properties of the user's moveme......Indoors, a user's movements are typically confined by walls, corridors, and doorways, and further he is typically repeating the same movements such as walking between certain points in the building. Conventional indoor localization systems do usually not take these properties of the user...... likely trajectory is then calculated using and extended version of the Viterbi algorithm. The results show significant improvements of the proposed algorithm compared to a simpler moving average smoothing....

  2. Measuring name system health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Casalicchio, Emiliano; Caselli, Marco; Coletta, Alessio; Di Blasi, Salvatore; Fovino, Igor Nai; Butts, Jonathan; Shenoi, Sujeet

    2012-01-01

    Modern critical infrastructure assets are exposed to security threats arising from their use of IP networks and the Domain Name System (DNS). This paper focuses on the health of DNS. Indeed, due to the increased reliance on the Internet, the degradation of DNS could have significant consequences for

  3. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  4. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different

  5. Performance Modeling of Communication Networks with Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Mo, Jeonghoon

    2010-01-01

    This book is an introduction to Markov chain modeling with applications to communication networks. It begins with a general introduction to performance modeling in Chapter 1 where we introduce different performance models. We then introduce basic ideas of Markov chain modeling: Markov property, discrete time Markov chain (DTMe and continuous time Markov chain (CTMe. We also discuss how to find the steady state distributions from these Markov chains and how they can be used to compute the system performance metric. The solution methodologies include a balance equation technique, limiting probab

  6. Theriocide: Naming Animal Killing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piers Beirne

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this essay I recommend ‘theriocide’ as the name for those diverse human actions that cause the deaths of animals. Like the killing of one human by another, theriocide may be socially acceptable or unacceptable, legal or illegal. It may be intentional or unintentional and may involve active maltreatment or passive neglect. Theriocide may occur one-on-one, in small groups or in large-scale social institutions. The numerous and sometimes intersecting sites of theriocide include intensive rearing regimes; hunting and fishing; trafficking; vivisection; militarism; pollution; and human-induced climate change. If the killing of animals by humans is as harmful to them as homicide is to humans, then the proper naming of such deaths offers a remedy, however small, to the extensive privileging of human lives over those of other animals. Inevitably, the essay leads to a shocking question: Is theriocide murder?

  7. Names For Free

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pouillard, Nicolas; Bernardy, Jean-Philippe

    2013-01-01

    We propose a novel technique to represent names and binders in Haskell. The dynamic (run-time) representation is based on de Bruijn indices, but it features an interface to write and manipulate variables conviently, using Haskell-level lambdas and variables. The key idea is to use rich types...... and manipulation in a natural way, while retaining the good properties of representations based on de Bruijn indices....

  8. Reliability analysis of Markov history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Shijia; Zeng, Zhiguo; Cui, Lirong; Kang, Rui

    2017-01-01

    Markov history-dependent repairable systems refer to the Markov repairable systems in which some states are changeable and dependent on recent evolutional history of the system. In practice, many Markov history-dependent repairable systems are subjected to neglected failures, i.e., some failures do not affect system performances if they can be repaired promptly. In this paper, we develop a model based on the theory of aggregated stochastic processes to describe the history-dependent behavior and the effect of neglected failures on the Markov history-dependent repairable systems. Based on the developed model, instantaneous and steady-state availabilities are derived to characterize the reliability of the system. Four reliability-related time distributions, i.e., distribution for the k th working period, distribution for the k th failure period, distribution for the real working time in an effective working period, distribution for the neglected failure time in an effective working period, are also derived to provide a more comprehensive description of the system's reliability. Thanks to the power of the theory of aggregated stochastic processes, closed-form expressions are obtained for all the reliability indexes and time distributions. Finally, the developed indexes and analysis methods are demonstrated by a numerical example. - Highlights: • Markovian history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures is modeled. • Aggregated stochastic processes are used to derive reliability indexes and time distributions. • Closed-form expressions are derived for the considered indexes and distributions.

  9. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  10. Consistent Estimation of Partition Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús E. García

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Partition Markov Model characterizes the process by a partition L of the state space, where the elements in each part of L share the same transition probability to an arbitrary element in the alphabet. This model aims to answer the following questions: what is the minimal number of parameters needed to specify a Markov chain and how to estimate these parameters. In order to answer these questions, we build a consistent strategy for model selection which consist of: giving a size n realization of the process, finding a model within the Partition Markov class, with a minimal number of parts to represent the process law. From the strategy, we derive a measure that establishes a metric in the state space. In addition, we show that if the law of the process is Markovian, then, eventually, when n goes to infinity, L will be retrieved. We show an application to model internet navigation patterns.

  11. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  12. Accelerated decomposition techniques for large discounted Markov decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larach, Abdelhadi; Chafik, S.; Daoui, C.

    2017-12-01

    Many hierarchical techniques to solve large Markov decision processes (MDPs) are based on the partition of the state space into strongly connected components (SCCs) that can be classified into some levels. In each level, smaller problems named restricted MDPs are solved, and then these partial solutions are combined to obtain the global solution. In this paper, we first propose a novel algorithm, which is a variant of Tarjan's algorithm that simultaneously finds the SCCs and their belonging levels. Second, a new definition of the restricted MDPs is presented to ameliorate some hierarchical solutions in discounted MDPs using value iteration (VI) algorithm based on a list of state-action successors. Finally, a robotic motion-planning example and the experiment results are presented to illustrate the benefit of the proposed decomposition algorithms.

  13. Markov decision processes in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Sigaud, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a mathematical framework for modeling sequential decision problems under uncertainty as well as Reinforcement Learning problems. Written by experts in the field, this book provides a global view of current research using MDPs in Artificial Intelligence. It starts with an introductory presentation of the fundamental aspects of MDPs (planning in MDPs, Reinforcement Learning, Partially Observable MDPs, Markov games and the use of non-classical criteria). Then it presents more advanced research trends in the domain and gives some concrete examples using illustr

  14. Markov bridges, bisection and variance reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Hobolth, Asger

    . In this paper we firstly consider the problem of generating sample paths from a continuous-time Markov chain conditioned on the endpoints using a new algorithm based on the idea of bisection. Secondly we study the potential of the bisection algorithm for variance reduction. In particular, examples are presented......Time-continuous Markov jump processes is a popular modelling tool in disciplines ranging from computational finance and operations research to human genetics and genomics. The data is often sampled at discrete points in time, and it can be useful to simulate sample paths between the datapoints...

  15. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Emil Banning; Møller, Jan K.; Morales, Juan Miguel

    2017-01-01

    . Specifically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is defined by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip, and is justified due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is fitted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  16. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Morales González, Juan Miguel

    . Specically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is dened by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip and is justied due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is tted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  17. Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

  18. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  19. Markov processes an introduction for physical scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Gillespie, Daniel T

    1991-01-01

    Markov process theory is basically an extension of ordinary calculus to accommodate functions whos time evolutions are not entirely deterministic. It is a subject that is becoming increasingly important for many fields of science. This book develops the single-variable theory of both continuous and jump Markov processes in a way that should appeal especially to physicists and chemists at the senior and graduate level.Key Features* A self-contained, prgamatic exposition of the needed elements of random variable theory* Logically integrated derviations of the Chapman-Kolmogorov e

  20. Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its ... the earth from the clouds. The usual ... Rainfall modelling and ... Markov Models have become popular tools ... environment sciences, University of Jos, plateau state,.

  1. Extending Markov Automata with State and Action Rewards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guck, Dennis; Timmer, Mark; Blom, Stefan; Bertrand, N.; Bortolussi, L.

    This presentation introduces the Markov Reward Automaton (MRA), an extension of the Markov automaton that allows the modelling of systems incorporating rewards in addition to nondeterminism, discrete probabilistic choice and continuous stochastic timing. Our models support both rewards that are

  2. What's in a Name?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonneau, Joseph; Just, Mike; Matthews, Greg

    We study the efficiency of statistical attacks on human authentication systems relying on personal knowledge questions. We adapt techniques from guessing theory to measure security against a trawling attacker attempting to compromise a large number of strangers' accounts. We then examine a diverse corpus of real-world statistical distributions for likely answer categories such as the names of people, pets, and places and find that personal knowledge questions are significantly less secure than graphical or textual passwords. We also demonstrate that statistics can be used to increase security by proactively shaping the answer distribution to lower the prevalence of common responses.

  3. What's in a name?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalley, Mark

    2008-03-01

    During a lesson with my A-level physics class, my school's head of English came into the lab and happened to notice the whiteboard. I had just started teaching a section on particle physics and was acquainting the students with the multitude of names found in the particle world. Among others, the board contained the words lepton, hadron, meson, baryon, photon, gluon, boson, muon, neutrino, fermion and quark. The head of English pointed out that none of the words on the board were intelligible to anyone else in the school. He added that the words themselves were utterly bizarre, although in fairness he did recognize the reference to James Joyce.

  4. Principles of models based engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolin, R.M.; Hefele, J.

    1996-11-01

    This report describes a Models Based Engineering (MBE) philosophy and implementation strategy that has been developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory`s Center for Advanced Engineering Technology. A major theme in this discussion is that models based engineering is an information management technology enabling the development of information driven engineering. Unlike other information management technologies, models based engineering encompasses the breadth of engineering information, from design intent through product definition to consumer application.

  5. Branding a business name

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bulatović Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of globalization, international businesses, as well as competitive markets imposed the companies (large ones, as well as the others to position in the required market. Making profit, which is the basic aim of every company, in such market environment can only be achieved by demonstrating distinct characteristics of a company, the characteristics which distinguish it from others with the same or similar activities. Historical and analysis of the current market have shown that being recognizable in the multitude of similar companies is a huge challenge, but also one of the main preconditions for successful operations. The moment a company is registered it acquires a specific identity primarily owing to its business name, which distinguishes it from other companies during that first period. Practically at the same time, the company starts creating its image or goodwill by means of several distinctive ways. One of them is branding business name or corporate branding. However, apart from large benefits, companies may also have big difficulties and risks in the same process as well.

  6. Perturbation theory for Markov chains via Wasserstein distance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rudolf, Daniel; Schweizer, Nikolaus

    2017-01-01

    Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question of how small differences in the transition probabilities of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the nth step distributions of two Markov chains

  7. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-19

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  8. Markov Random Fields on Triangle Meshes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Vedrana; Aanæs, Henrik; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a novel anisotropic smoothing scheme based on Markov Random Fields (MRF). Our scheme is formulated as two coupled processes. A vertex process is used to smooth the mesh by displacing the vertices according to a MRF smoothness prior, while an independent edge process label...

  9. A Martingale Decomposition of Discrete Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard

    We consider a multivariate time series whose increments are given from a homogeneous Markov chain. We show that the martingale component of this process can be extracted by a filtering method and establish the corresponding martingale decomposition in closed-form. This representation is useful fo...

  10. Renewal characterization of Markov modulated Poisson processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel F. Neuts

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available A Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP M(t defined on a Markov chain J(t is a pure jump process where jumps of M(t occur according to a Poisson process with intensity λi whenever the Markov chain J(t is in state i. M(t is called strongly renewal (SR if M(t is a renewal process for an arbitrary initial probability vector of J(t with full support on P={i:λi>0}. M(t is called weakly renewal (WR if there exists an initial probability vector of J(t such that the resulting MMPP is a renewal process. The purpose of this paper is to develop general characterization theorems for the class SR and some sufficiency theorems for the class WR in terms of the first passage times of the bivariate Markov chain [J(t,M(t]. Relevance to the lumpability of J(t is also studied.

  11. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  12. Bayesian analysis for reversible Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diaconis, P.; Rolles, S.W.W.

    2006-01-01

    We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from Pólya’s urn. We give closed form normalizing constants, a simple

  13. Bisimulation and Simulation Relations for Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baier, Christel; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.; Wolf, Verena; Aceto, L.; Gordon, A.

    2006-01-01

    Formal notions of bisimulation and simulation relation play a central role for any kind of process algebra. This short paper sketches the main concepts for bisimulation and simulation relations for probabilistic systems, modelled by discrete- or continuous-time Markov chains.

  14. Discounted Markov games : generalized policy iteration method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, van der J.

    1978-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two-person zero-sum discounted Markov games with finite state and action spaces. We show that the Newton-Raphson or policy iteration method as presented by Pollats-chek and Avi-Itzhak does not necessarily converge, contradicting a proof of Rao, Chandrasekaran, and Nair.

  15. Hidden Markov Models for Human Genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Yves

    1997-01-01

    We analyse the sequential structure of human genomic DNA by hidden Markov models. We apply models of widely different design: conventional left-right constructs and models with a built-in periodic architecture. The models are trained on segments of DNA sequences extracted such that they cover com...

  16. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  17. Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Z.; Pistorius, M.

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a

  18. Revisiting Weak Simulation for Substochastic Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, David N.; Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun

    2013-01-01

    of the logic PCTL\\x, and its completeness was conjectured. We revisit this result and show that soundness does not hold in general, but only for Markov chains without divergence. It is refuted for some systems with substochastic distributions. Moreover, we provide a counterexample to completeness...

  19. Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Crack Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard

    1991-01-01

    propagation process can be described by a discrete space Markov theory. The model is applicable to deterministic as well as to random loading. Once the model parameters for a given material have been determined, the results can be used for any structure as soon as the geometrical function is known....

  20. Multi-dimensional quasitoeplitz Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander N. Dudin

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with multi-dimensional quasitoeplitz Markov chains. We establish a sufficient equilibrium condition and derive a functional matrix equation for the corresponding vector-generating function, whose solution is given algorithmically. The results are demonstrated in the form of examples and applications in queues with BMAP-input, which operate in synchronous random environment.

  1. Markov chains with quasitoeplitz transition matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander M. Dukhovny

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a class of Markov chains which are frequently encountered in various applications (e.g. queueing systems, dams and inventories with feedback. Generating functions of transient and steady state probabilities are found by solving a special Riemann boundary value problem on the unit circle. A criterion of ergodicity is established.

  2. Markov Chain Estimation of Avian Seasonal Fecundity

    Science.gov (United States)

    To explore the consequences of modeling decisions on inference about avian seasonal fecundity we generalize previous Markov chain (MC) models of avian nest success to formulate two different MC models of avian seasonal fecundity that represent two different ways to model renestin...

  3. Noise can speed convergence in Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzke, Brandon; Kosko, Bart

    2011-10-01

    A new theorem shows that noise can speed convergence to equilibrium in discrete finite-state Markov chains. The noise applies to the state density and helps the Markov chain explore improbable regions of the state space. The theorem ensures that a stochastic-resonance noise benefit exists for states that obey a vector-norm inequality. Such noise leads to faster convergence because the noise reduces the norm components. A corollary shows that a noise benefit still occurs if the system states obey an alternate norm inequality. This leads to a noise-benefit algorithm that requires knowledge of the steady state. An alternative blind algorithm uses only past state information to achieve a weaker noise benefit. Simulations illustrate the predicted noise benefits in three well-known Markov models. The first model is a two-parameter Ehrenfest diffusion model that shows how noise benefits can occur in the class of birth-death processes. The second model is a Wright-Fisher model of genotype drift in population genetics. The third model is a chemical reaction network of zeolite crystallization. A fourth simulation shows a convergence rate increase of 64% for states that satisfy the theorem and an increase of 53% for states that satisfy the corollary. A final simulation shows that even suboptimal noise can speed convergence if the noise applies over successive time cycles. Noise benefits tend to be sharpest in Markov models that do not converge quickly and that do not have strong absorbing states.

  4. Model Checking Infinite-State Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Cloth, L.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper algorithms for model checking CSL (continuous stochastic logic) against infinite-state continuous-time Markov chains of so-called quasi birth-death type are developed. In doing so we extend the applicability of CSL model checking beyond the recently proposed case for finite-state

  5. Model Checking Markov Chains: Techniques and Tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zapreev, I.S.

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation deals with four important aspects of model checking Markov chains: the development of efficient model-checking tools, the improvement of model-checking algorithms, the efficiency of the state-space reduction techniques, and the development of simulation-based model-checking

  6. Nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Silvestrov, Dmitrii

    2017-01-01

    The book presents new methods of asymptotic analysis for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with a finite phase space. These methods are based on special time-space screening procedures for sequential phase space reduction of semi-Markov processes combined with the systematical use of operational calculus for Laurent asymptotic expansions. Effective recurrent algorithms are composed for getting asymptotic expansions, without and with explicit upper bounds for remainders, for power moments of hitting times, stationary and conditional quasi-stationary distributions for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes. These results are illustrated by asymptotic expansions for birth-death-type semi-Markov processes, which play an important role in various applications. The book will be a useful contribution to the continuing intensive studies in the area. It is an essential reference for theoretical and applied researchers in the field of stochastic processes and their applications that will cont...

  7. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  8. Markov chain of distances between parked cars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seba, Petr

    2008-01-01

    We describe the distribution of distances between parked cars as a solution of certain Markov processes and show that its solution is obtained with the help of a distributional fixed point equation. Under certain conditions the process is solved explicitly. The resulting probability density is compared with the actual parking data measured in the city. (fast track communication)

  9. Continuity Properties of Distances for Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Mao, Hua; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we investigate distance functions on finite state Markov processes that measure the behavioural similarity of non-bisimilar processes. We consider both probabilistic bisimilarity metrics, and trace-based distances derived from standard Lp and Kullback-Leibler distances. Two desirable...

  10. Model Checking Structured Infinite Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid

    2008-01-01

    In the past probabilistic model checking hast mostly been restricted to finite state models. This thesis explores the possibilities of model checking with continuous stochastic logic (CSL) on infinite-state Markov chains. We present an in-depth treatment of model checking algorithms for two special

  11. Hidden Markov models for labeled sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1994-01-01

    A hidden Markov model for labeled observations, called a class HMM, is introduced and a maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Instead of training it to model the statistics of the training sequences it is trained to optimize recognition. It resembles MMI...

  12. Efficient Modelling and Generation of Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koutny, M.; Timmer, Mark; Ulidowski, I.; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    This paper introduces a framework for the efficient modelling and generation of Markov automata. It consists of (1) the data-rich process-algebraic language MAPA, allowing concise modelling of systems with nondeterminism, probability and Markovian timing; (2) a restricted form of the language, the

  13. A Metrized Duality Theorem for Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozen, Dexter; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Panangaden, Prakash

    2014-01-01

    We extend our previous duality theorem for Markov processes by equipping the processes with a pseudometric and the algebras with a notion of metric diameter. We are able to show that the isomorphisms of our previous duality theorem become isometries in this quantitative setting. This opens the wa...

  14. A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yue, M.; Cheng, L.-Y.; Bari, R.

    2008-01-01

    Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR and PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.

  15. Fuzzy model-based control of a nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, L.; Ruan, D.

    1994-01-01

    The fuzzy model-based control of a nuclear power reactor is an emerging research topic world-wide. SCK-CEN is dealing with this research in a preliminary stage, including two aspects, namely fuzzy control and fuzzy modelling. The aim is to combine both methodologies in contrast to conventional model-based PID control techniques, and to state advantages of including fuzzy parameters as safety and operator feedback. This paper summarizes the general scheme of this new research project

  16. Named Entity Linking Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Panteleev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the tasks of processing text in natural language, Named Entity Linking (NEL represents the task to define and link some entity, which is found in the text, with some entity in the knowledge base (for example, Dbpedia. Currently, there is a diversity of approaches to solve this problem, but two main classes can be identified: graph-based approaches and machine learning-based ones. Graph and Machine Learning approaches-based algorithm is proposed accordingly to the stated assumptions about the interrelations of named entities in a sentence and in general.In the case of graph-based approaches, it is necessary to solve the problem of identifying an optimal set of the related entities according to some metric that characterizes the distance between these entities in a graph built on some knowledge base. Due to limitations in processing power, to solve this task directly is impossible. Therefore, its modification is proposed. Based on the algorithms of machine learning, an independent solution cannot be built due to small volumes of training datasets relevant to NEL task. However, their use can contribute to improving the quality of the algorithm. The adaptation of the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model is proposed in order to obtain a measure of the compatibility of attributes of various entities encountered in one context.The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was experimentally tested. A test dataset was independently generated. On its basis the performance of the model was compared using the proposed algorithm with the open source product DBpedia Spotlight, which solves the NEL problem.The mockup, based on the proposed algorithm, showed a low speed as compared to DBpedia Spotlight. However, the fact that it has shown higher accuracy, stipulates the prospects for work in this direction.The main directions of development were proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the system and its productivity.

  17. Socioeconomic determinants of first names

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloothooft, G.; Onland, D.

    2011-01-01

    Modern naming practices in the Netherlands between 1982 and 2005 were studied on the basis of 1409 popular first names, divided into fourteen name groups determined by the common preferences of parents for the names involved. Socioeconomic variables such as family income, parents' level of

  18. Dictionary of Alaska place names

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Donald J.

    1971-01-01

    This work is an alphabetical list of the geographic names that are now applied and have been applied to places and features of the Alaska landscape. Principal names, compiled from modem maps and charts and printed in boldface type, generally reflect present-day local usage. They conform to the principles of the U.S. Board on Geographic Names for establishing standard names for use on Government maps and in other Government publications. Each name entry gives the present-day spelling along with variant spellings and names; identifies the feature named; presents the origin and history of the name; and, where possible, gives the meaning of an Eskimo, Aleut, Indian, or foreign name. Variant, obsolete, and doubtful names are alphabetically listed and are cross referenced, where necessary, to the principal entries.

  19. History of NAMES Conferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippov, Lev

    2013-03-01

    Franco-Russian NAMES Seminars are held for the purpose of reviewing and discussing actual developments in the field of materials science by researchers from Russia and from the Lorraine Region of France. In more precise terms, as set down by the organizers of the seminar (the Moscow Institute of Steel and Alloys and the Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine), the mission of the seminars is as follows: the development of scientific and academic contacts, giving a new impulse to joint fundamental research and technology transfer the development and consolidation of scientific, technical and business collaboration between the regions of Russia and Lorraine through direct contact between the universities, institutes and companies involved The first Seminar took place on 27-29 October 2004, at the Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine (on the premises of the Ecole Européenne d'Ingénieurs en Génie des Matériaux, Nancy, France). The number, variety and quality of the oral presentations given and posters exhibited at the first Seminar were of high international standard. 30 oral presentations were given and 72 posters were presented by 19 participants from five universities and three institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences participants from 11 laboratories of three universities from the Lorraine region three industrial companies, including the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company—EADS, and ANVAR (Agence Nationale de Valorisation de la Recherche) From 2005 onwards, it was decided to organize the Seminar every other year. The second Seminar convened on the occasion of the 75th Anniversary of the Moscow Institute of Steel and Alloys on 10-12 November 2005 in Moscow, Russia. The seminar demonstrated the efficiency of the scientific partnership founded between the research groups of Russia and France during the first Seminar. High productivity of the Franco-Russian scientific cooperation on the basis of the Research-Educational Franco

  20. An interlacing theorem for reversible Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grone, Robert; Salamon, Peter; Hoffmann, Karl Heinz

    2008-01-01

    Reversible Markov chains are an indispensable tool in the modeling of a vast class of physical, chemical, biological and statistical problems. Examples include the master equation descriptions of relaxing physical systems, stochastic optimization algorithms such as simulated annealing, chemical dynamics of protein folding and Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical estimation. Very often the large size of the state spaces requires the coarse graining or lumping of microstates into fewer mesoscopic states, and a question of utmost importance for the validity of the physical model is how the eigenvalues of the corresponding stochastic matrix change under this operation. In this paper we prove an interlacing theorem which gives explicit bounds on the eigenvalues of the lumped stochastic matrix. (fast track communication)

  1. An interlacing theorem for reversible Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grone, Robert; Salamon, Peter [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182-7720 (United States); Hoffmann, Karl Heinz [Institut fuer Physik, Technische Universitaet Chemnitz, D-09107 Chemnitz (Germany)

    2008-05-30

    Reversible Markov chains are an indispensable tool in the modeling of a vast class of physical, chemical, biological and statistical problems. Examples include the master equation descriptions of relaxing physical systems, stochastic optimization algorithms such as simulated annealing, chemical dynamics of protein folding and Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical estimation. Very often the large size of the state spaces requires the coarse graining or lumping of microstates into fewer mesoscopic states, and a question of utmost importance for the validity of the physical model is how the eigenvalues of the corresponding stochastic matrix change under this operation. In this paper we prove an interlacing theorem which gives explicit bounds on the eigenvalues of the lumped stochastic matrix. (fast track communication)

  2. Stochastic Dynamics through Hierarchically Embedded Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Fernando P; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

    2017-02-03

    Studying dynamical phenomena in finite populations often involves Markov processes of significant mathematical and/or computational complexity, which rapidly becomes prohibitive with increasing population size or an increasing number of individual configuration states. Here, we develop a framework that allows us to define a hierarchy of approximations to the stationary distribution of general systems that can be described as discrete Markov processes with time invariant transition probabilities and (possibly) a large number of states. This results in an efficient method for studying social and biological communities in the presence of stochastic effects-such as mutations in evolutionary dynamics and a random exploration of choices in social systems-including situations where the dynamics encompasses the existence of stable polymorphic configurations, thus overcoming the limitations of existing methods. The present formalism is shown to be general in scope, widely applicable, and of relevance to a variety of interdisciplinary problems.

  3. Exact solution of the hidden Markov processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, David B.

    2017-11-01

    We write a master equation for the distributions related to hidden Markov processes (HMPs) and solve it using a functional equation. Thus the solution of HMPs is mapped exactly to the solution of the functional equation. For a general case the latter can be solved only numerically. We derive an exact expression for the entropy of HMPs. Our expression for the entropy is an alternative to the ones given before by the solution of integral equations. The exact solution is possible because actually the model can be considered as a generalized random walk on a one-dimensional strip. While we give the solution for the two second-order matrices, our solution can be easily generalized for the L values of the Markov process and M values of observables: We should be able to solve a system of L functional equations in the space of dimension M -1 .

  4. Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo

    CERN Document Server

    Brooks, Steve

    2011-01-01

    ""Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo"" brings together the major advances that have occurred in recent years while incorporating enough introductory material for new users of MCMC. Along with thorough coverage of the theoretical foundations and algorithmic and computational methodology, this comprehensive handbook includes substantial realistic case studies from a variety of disciplines. These case studies demonstrate the application of MCMC methods and serve as a series of templates for the construction, implementation, and choice of MCMC methodology.

  5. Second Order Optimality in Markov Decision Chains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 6 (2017), s. 1086-1099 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-10331S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Markov decision chains * second order optimality * optimalilty conditions for transient, discounted and average models * policy and value iterations Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/sladky-0485146.pdf

  6. Dynamical fluctuations for semi-Markov processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Maes, C.; Netočný, Karel; Wynants, B.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 36 (2009), 365002/1-365002/21 ISSN 1751-8113 R&D Projects: GA ČR GC202/07/J051 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100520 Keywords : nonequilibrium fluctuations * semi-Markov processes Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.577, year: 2009 http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1751-8121/42/36/365002

  7. Analysis of a quantum Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marbeau, J.; Gudder, S.

    1990-01-01

    A quantum chain is analogous to a classical stationary Markov chain except that the probability measure is replaced by a complex amplitude measure and the transition probability matrix is replaced by a transition amplitude matrix. After considering the general situation, we study a particular example of a quantum chain whose transition amplitude matrix has the form of a Dirichlet matrix. Such matrices generate a discrete analog of the usual continuum Feynman amplitude. We then compute the probability distribution for these quantum chains

  8. Modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulatilake, P.H.S.W.

    1987-07-01

    State-of-the-art on modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using first-order Markov chains is reviewed. Shortcomings of the presently available procedures are identified. A procedure which eliminates all the identified shortcomings is presented. Required statistical tests to perform this modelling are given in detail. An example (the Oficina formation in eastern Venezuela) is given to illustrate the presented procedure. 12 refs., 3 tabs. 1 fig.

  9. Markov Chains For Testing Redundant Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Allan L.; Sjogren, Jon A.

    1990-01-01

    Preliminary design developed for validation experiment that addresses problems unique to assuring extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. Approach takes into account inertia of controlled system in sense it takes more than one failure of control program to cause controlled system to fail. Verification procedure consists of two steps: experimentation (numerical simulation) and computation, with Markov model for each step.

  10. Operational Markov Condition for Quantum Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollock, Felix A.; Rodríguez-Rosario, César; Frauenheim, Thomas; Paternostro, Mauro; Modi, Kavan

    2018-01-01

    We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for a quantum process to be Markovian which coincides with the classical one in the relevant limit. Our condition unifies all previously known definitions for quantum Markov processes by accounting for all potentially detectable memory effects. We then derive a family of measures of non-Markovianity with clear operational interpretations, such as the size of the memory required to simulate a process or the experimental falsifiability of a Markovian hypothesis.

  11. Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models used to identify forest tree growth components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Guédon, Yann; Lavergne, Christian; Trottier, Catherine

    2010-09-01

    Tree growth is assumed to be mainly the result of three components: (i) an endogenous component assumed to be structured as a succession of roughly stationary phases separated by marked change points that are asynchronous among individuals, (ii) a time-varying environmental component assumed to take the form of synchronous fluctuations among individuals, and (iii) an individual component corresponding mainly to the local environment of each tree. To identify and characterize these three components, we propose to use semi-Markov switching linear mixed models, i.e., models that combine linear mixed models in a semi-Markovian manner. The underlying semi-Markov chain represents the succession of growth phases and their lengths (endogenous component) whereas the linear mixed models attached to each state of the underlying semi-Markov chain represent-in the corresponding growth phase-both the influence of time-varying climatic covariates (environmental component) as fixed effects, and interindividual heterogeneity (individual component) as random effects. In this article, we address the estimation of Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models in a general framework. We propose a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization like algorithm whose iterations decompose into three steps: (i) sampling of state sequences given random effects, (ii) prediction of random effects given state sequences, and (iii) maximization. The proposed statistical modeling approach is illustrated by the analysis of successive annual shoots along Corsican pine trunks influenced by climatic covariates. © 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Modeling nonhomogeneous Markov processes via time transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, R A; Inoue, L Y T; Fann, J R

    2008-09-01

    Longitudinal studies are a powerful tool for characterizing the course of chronic disease. These studies are usually carried out with subjects observed at periodic visits giving rise to panel data. Under this observation scheme the exact times of disease state transitions and sequence of disease states visited are unknown and Markov process models are often used to describe disease progression. Most applications of Markov process models rely on the assumption of time homogeneity, that is, that the transition rates are constant over time. This assumption is not satisfied when transition rates depend on time from the process origin. However, limited statistical tools are available for dealing with nonhomogeneity. We propose models in which the time scale of a nonhomogeneous Markov process is transformed to an operational time scale on which the process is homogeneous. We develop a method for jointly estimating the time transformation and the transition intensity matrix for the time transformed homogeneous process. We assess maximum likelihood estimation using the Fisher scoring algorithm via simulation studies and compare performance of our method to homogeneous and piecewise homogeneous models. We apply our methodology to a study of delirium progression in a cohort of stem cell transplantation recipients and show that our method identifies temporal trends in delirium incidence and recovery.

  13. Temperature scaling method for Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Lonnie D; Windus, Theresa L

    2009-01-22

    The use of ab initio potentials in Monte Carlo simulations aimed at investigating the nucleation kinetics of water clusters is complicated by the computational expense of the potential energy determinations. Furthermore, the common desire to investigate the temperature dependence of kinetic properties leads to an urgent need to reduce the expense of performing simulations at many different temperatures. A method is detailed that allows a Markov chain (obtained via Monte Carlo) at one temperature to be scaled to other temperatures of interest without the need to perform additional large simulations. This Markov chain temperature-scaling (TeS) can be generally applied to simulations geared for numerous applications. This paper shows the quality of results which can be obtained by TeS and the possible quantities which may be extracted from scaled Markov chains. Results are obtained for a 1-D analytical potential for which the exact solutions are known. Also, this method is applied to water clusters consisting of between 2 and 5 monomers, using Dynamical Nucleation Theory to determine the evaporation rate constant for monomer loss. Although ab initio potentials are not utilized in this paper, the benefit of this method is made apparent by using the Dang-Chang polarizable classical potential for water to obtain statistical properties at various temperatures.

  14. A fast exact simulation method for a class of Markov jump processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Hu, Lili

    2015-11-14

    A new method of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), named the Hashing-Leaping method (HLM), for exact simulations of a class of Markov jump processes, is presented in this paper. The HLM has a conditional constant computational cost per event, which is independent of the number of exponential clocks in the Markov process. The main idea of the HLM is to repeatedly implement a hash-table-like bucket sort algorithm for all times of occurrence covered by a time step with length τ. This paper serves as an introduction to this new SSA method. We introduce the method, demonstrate its implementation, analyze its properties, and compare its performance with three other commonly used SSA methods in four examples. Our performance tests and CPU operation statistics show certain advantages of the HLM for large scale problems.

  15. Overshoot in biological systems modelled by Markov chains: a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Chen; Qian, Minping; Jiang, Daquan

    2014-08-01

    A number of biological systems can be modelled by Markov chains. Recently, there has been an increasing concern about when biological systems modelled by Markov chains will perform a dynamic phenomenon called overshoot. In this study, the authors found that the steady-state behaviour of the system will have a great effect on the occurrence of overshoot. They showed that overshoot in general cannot occur in systems that will finally approach an equilibrium steady state. They further classified overshoot into two types, named as simple overshoot and oscillating overshoot. They showed that except for extreme cases, oscillating overshoot will occur if the system is far from equilibrium. All these results clearly show that overshoot is a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon with energy consumption. In addition, the main result in this study is validated with real experimental data.

  16. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques applied to parton distribution functions determination: Proof of concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gbedo, Yémalin Gabin; Mangin-Brinet, Mariane

    2017-07-01

    We present a new procedure to determine parton distribution functions (PDFs), based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The aim of this paper is to show that we can replace the standard χ2 minimization by procedures grounded on statistical methods, and on Bayesian inference in particular, thus offering additional insight into the rich field of PDFs determination. After a basic introduction to these techniques, we introduce the algorithm we have chosen to implement—namely Hybrid (or Hamiltonian) Monte Carlo. This algorithm, initially developed for Lattice QCD, turns out to be very interesting when applied to PDFs determination by global analyses; we show that it allows us to circumvent the difficulties due to the high dimensionality of the problem, in particular concerning the acceptance. A first feasibility study is performed and presented, which indicates that Markov chain Monte Carlo can successfully be applied to the extraction of PDFs and of their uncertainties.

  17. Stencil method: a Markov model for transport in porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgoshaie, A. H.; Tchelepi, H.; Jenny, P.

    2016-12-01

    In porous media the transport of fluid is dominated by flow-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying transmissibility field. Since the transmissibility is highly uncertain, many realizations of a geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo framework. One possible way to avoid the high computational cost of physics-based Monte Carlo simulations is to model the velocity field as a Markov process and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In previous works multiple Markov models for discrete velocity processes have been proposed. These models can be divided into two general classes of Markov models in time and Markov models in space. Both of these choices have been shown to be effective to some extent. However some studies have suggested that the Markov property cannot be confirmed for a temporal Markov process; Therefore there is not a consensus about the validity and value of Markov models in time. Moreover, previous spacial Markov models have only been used for modeling transport on structured networks and can not be readily applied to model transport in unstructured networks. In this work we propose a novel approach for constructing a Markov model in time (stencil method) for a discrete velocity process. The results form the stencil method are compared to previously proposed spacial Markov models for structured networks. The stencil method is also applied to unstructured networks and can successfully describe the dispersion of particles in this setting. Our conclusion is that both temporal Markov models and spacial Markov models for discrete velocity processes can be valid for a range of model parameters. Moreover, we show that the stencil model can be more efficient in many practical settings and is suited to model dispersion both on structured and unstructured networks.

  18. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  19. Can You Say My Name?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erz, Antonia; Christensen, Bo T.

    Whereas brand name research has focused on the semantic meaning or sounds of names, processing fluency lends further support to the idea that meaning goes beyond semantics. Extant research has shown that phonological fluency, i.e., the ease or difficulty with which people pronounce names, can...

  20. A family of names : rune-names and ogam-names and their relation to alphabet letter-names

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Griffiths, Alan

    2013-01-01

    The current consensus is that vernacular names assigned to the runes of the Germanic fuþark and to Irish ogam characters are indigenous creations independent of Mediterranean alphabet traditions. I propose, however, that ogam-names are based on interpretations of Hebrew, Greek or Latin letter-names

  1. Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abner, Erin L; Charnigo, Richard J; Kryscio, Richard J

    2013-10-25

    A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields.

  2. Derivation of Markov processes that violate detailed balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Julian

    2018-03-01

    Time-reversal symmetry of the microscopic laws dictates that the equilibrium distribution of a stochastic process must obey the condition of detailed balance. However, cyclic Markov processes that do not admit equilibrium distributions with detailed balance are often used to model systems driven out of equilibrium by external agents. I show that for a Markov model without detailed balance, an extended Markov model can be constructed, which explicitly includes the degrees of freedom for the driving agent and satisfies the detailed balance condition. The original cyclic Markov model for the driven system is then recovered as an approximation at early times by summing over the degrees of freedom for the driving agent. I also show that the widely accepted expression for the entropy production in a cyclic Markov model is actually a time derivative of an entropy component in the extended model. Further, I present an analytic expression for the entropy component that is hidden in the cyclic Markov model.

  3. Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

  4. A New GMRES(m Method for Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing-Yuan Pu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a class of new accelerated restarted GMRES method for calculating the stationary probability vector of an irreducible Markov chain. We focus on the mechanism of this new hybrid method by showing how to periodically combine the GMRES and vector extrapolation method into a much efficient one for improving the convergence rate in Markov chain problems. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of our new algorithm on several typical Markov chain problems.

  5. GEOGRAPHIC NAMES INFORMATION SYSTEM (GNIS) ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Geographic Names Information System (GNIS), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Board on Geographic Names (BGN), contains information about physical and cultural geographic features in the United States and associated areas, both current and historical, but not including roads and highways. The database also contains geographic names in Antarctica. The database holds the Federally recognized name of each feature and defines the location of the feature by state, county, USGS topographic map, and geographic coordinates. Other feature attributes include names or spellings other than the official name, feature designations, feature class, historical and descriptive information, and for some categories of features the geometric boundaries. The database assigns a unique feature identifier, a random number, that is a key for accessing, integrating, or reconciling GNIS data with other data sets. The GNIS is our Nation's official repository of domestic geographic feature names information.

  6. Robust hybrid name disambiguation framework for large databases

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Jia

    2013-10-26

    In many databases, science bibliography database for example, name attribute is the most commonly chosen identifier to identify entities. However, names are often ambiguous and not always unique which cause problems in many fields. Name disambiguation is a non-trivial task in data management that aims to properly distinguish different entities which share the same name, particularly for large databases like digital libraries, as only limited information can be used to identify authors\\' name. In digital libraries, ambiguous author names occur due to the existence of multiple authors with the same name or different name variations for the same person. Also known as name disambiguation, most of the previous works to solve this issue often employ hierarchical clustering approaches based on information inside the citation records, e.g. co-authors and publication titles. In this paper, we focus on proposing a robust hybrid name disambiguation framework that is not only applicable for digital libraries but also can be easily extended to other application based on different data sources. We propose a web pages genre identification component to identify the genre of a web page, e.g. whether the page is a personal homepage. In addition, we propose a re-clustering model based on multidimensional scaling that can further improve the performance of name disambiguation. We evaluated our approach on known corpora, and the favorable experiment results indicated that our proposed framework is feasible. © 2013 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary.

  7. Robust hybrid name disambiguation framework for large databases

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Jia; Yang, Yi; Xie, Qing; Wang, Liwei; Hassan, Saeed-Ul

    2013-01-01

    In many databases, science bibliography database for example, name attribute is the most commonly chosen identifier to identify entities. However, names are often ambiguous and not always unique which cause problems in many fields. Name disambiguation is a non-trivial task in data management that aims to properly distinguish different entities which share the same name, particularly for large databases like digital libraries, as only limited information can be used to identify authors' name. In digital libraries, ambiguous author names occur due to the existence of multiple authors with the same name or different name variations for the same person. Also known as name disambiguation, most of the previous works to solve this issue often employ hierarchical clustering approaches based on information inside the citation records, e.g. co-authors and publication titles. In this paper, we focus on proposing a robust hybrid name disambiguation framework that is not only applicable for digital libraries but also can be easily extended to other application based on different data sources. We propose a web pages genre identification component to identify the genre of a web page, e.g. whether the page is a personal homepage. In addition, we propose a re-clustering model based on multidimensional scaling that can further improve the performance of name disambiguation. We evaluated our approach on known corpora, and the favorable experiment results indicated that our proposed framework is feasible. © 2013 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary.

  8. Context Tree Estimation in Variable Length Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Dumont, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    We address the issue of context tree estimation in variable length hidden Markov models. We propose an estimator of the context tree of the hidden Markov process which needs no prior upper bound on the depth of the context tree. We prove that the estimator is strongly consistent. This uses information-theoretic mixture inequalities in the spirit of Finesso and Lorenzo(Consistent estimation of the order for Markov and hidden Markov chains(1990)) and E.Gassiat and S.Boucheron (Optimal error exp...

  9. Deteksi Fraud Menggunakan Metode Model Markov Tersembunyi Pada Proses Bisnis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrean Hutama Koosasi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Model Markov Tersembunyi merupakan sebuah metode statistik berdasarkan Model Markov sederhana yang memodelkan sistem serta membaginya dalam 2 (dua state, state tersembunyi dan state observasi. Dalam pengerjaan tugas akhir ini, penulis mengusulkan penggunaan metode Model Markov Tersembunyi untuk menemukan fraud didalam sebuah pelaksanaan proses bisnis. Dengan penggunaan metode Model Markov Tersembunyi ini, maka pengamatan terhadap elemen penyusun sebuah kasus/kejadian, yakni beberapa aktivitas, akan diperoleh sebuah nilai peluang, yang sekaligus memberikan prediksi terhadap kasus/kejadian tersebut, sebuah fraud atau tidak. Hasil ekpserimen ini menunjukkan bahwa metode yang diusulkan mampu memberikan prediksi akhir dengan evaluasi TPR sebesar 87,5% dan TNR sebesar 99,4%.

  10. Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

    2014-05-01

    To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchenkov, D.; Dawin, J. R.

    2012-07-01

    A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.

  12. Pruning Boltzmann networks and hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten With; Stork, D.

    1996-01-01

    We present sensitivity-based pruning algorithms for general Boltzmann networks. Central to our methods is the efficient calculation of a second-order approximation to the true weight saliencies in a cross-entropy error. Building upon previous work which shows a formal correspondence between linear...... Boltzmann chains and hidden Markov models (HMMs), we argue that our method can be applied to HMMs as well. We illustrate pruning on Boltzmann zippers, which are equivalent to two HMMs with cross-connection links. We verify that our second-order approximation preserves the rank ordering of weight saliencies...

  13. Decoding LDPC Convolutional Codes on Markov Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kashyap Manohar

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper describes a pipelined iterative technique for joint decoding and channel state estimation of LDPC convolutional codes over Markov channels. Example designs are presented for the Gilbert-Elliott discrete channel model. We also compare the performance and complexity of our algorithm against joint decoding and state estimation of conventional LDPC block codes. Complexity analysis reveals that our pipelined algorithm reduces the number of operations per time step compared to LDPC block codes, at the expense of increased memory and latency. This tradeoff is favorable for low-power applications.

  14. Decoding LDPC Convolutional Codes on Markov Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Winstead

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a pipelined iterative technique for joint decoding and channel state estimation of LDPC convolutional codes over Markov channels. Example designs are presented for the Gilbert-Elliott discrete channel model. We also compare the performance and complexity of our algorithm against joint decoding and state estimation of conventional LDPC block codes. Complexity analysis reveals that our pipelined algorithm reduces the number of operations per time step compared to LDPC block codes, at the expense of increased memory and latency. This tradeoff is favorable for low-power applications.

  15. Evolving the structure of hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    won, K. J.; Prugel-Bennett, A.; Krogh, A.

    2006-01-01

    A genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed for finding the structure of hidden Markov Models (HMMs) used for biological sequence analysis. The GA is designed to preserve biologically meaningful building blocks. The search through the space of HMM structures is combined with optimization of the emission...... and transition probabilities using the classic Baum-Welch algorithm. The system is tested on the problem of finding the promoter and coding region of C. jejuni. The resulting HMM has a superior discrimination ability to a handcrafted model that has been published in the literature....

  16. Honest Importance Sampling with Multiple Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Aixin; Doss, Hani; Hobert, James P

    2015-01-01

    Importance sampling is a classical Monte Carlo technique in which a random sample from one probability density, π 1 , is used to estimate an expectation with respect to another, π . The importance sampling estimator is strongly consistent and, as long as two simple moment conditions are satisfied, it obeys a central limit theorem (CLT). Moreover, there is a simple consistent estimator for the asymptotic variance in the CLT, which makes for routine computation of standard errors. Importance sampling can also be used in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) context. Indeed, if the random sample from π 1 is replaced by a Harris ergodic Markov chain with invariant density π 1 , then the resulting estimator remains strongly consistent. There is a price to be paid however, as the computation of standard errors becomes more complicated. First, the two simple moment conditions that guarantee a CLT in the iid case are not enough in the MCMC context. Second, even when a CLT does hold, the asymptotic variance has a complex form and is difficult to estimate consistently. In this paper, we explain how to use regenerative simulation to overcome these problems. Actually, we consider a more general set up, where we assume that Markov chain samples from several probability densities, π 1 , …, π k , are available. We construct multiple-chain importance sampling estimators for which we obtain a CLT based on regeneration. We show that if the Markov chains converge to their respective target distributions at a geometric rate, then under moment conditions similar to those required in the iid case, the MCMC-based importance sampling estimator obeys a CLT. Furthermore, because the CLT is based on a regenerative process, there is a simple consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. We illustrate the method with two applications in Bayesian sensitivity analysis. The first concerns one-way random effects models under different priors. The second involves Bayesian variable

  17. ANALYSING ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING PLANS BY MARKOV CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mirabi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this research, a Markov analysis of acceptance sampling plans in a single stage and in two stages is proposed, based on the quality of the items inspected. In a stage of this policy, if the number of defective items in a sample of inspected items is more than the upper threshold, the batch is rejected. However, the batch is accepted if the number of defective items is less than the lower threshold. Nonetheless, when the number of defective items falls between the upper and lower thresholds, the decision-making process continues to inspect the items and collect further samples. The primary objective is to determine the optimal values of the upper and lower thresholds using a Markov process to minimise the total cost associated with a batch acceptance policy. A solution method is presented, along with a numerical demonstration of the application of the proposed methodology.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie navorsing word ’n Markov-ontleding gedoen van aannamemonsternemingsplanne wat plaasvind in ’n enkele stap of in twee stappe na gelang van die kwaliteit van die items wat geïnspekteer word. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items ’n boonste grens oorskry, word die lot afgekeur. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items minder is as ’n onderste grens, word die lot aanvaar. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items in die gebied tussen die boonste en onderste grense lê, word die besluitnemingsproses voortgesit en verdere monsters word geneem. Die primêre doel is om die optimale waardes van die booonste en onderste grense te bepaal deur gebruik te maak van ’n Markov-proses sodat die totale koste verbonde aan die proses geminimiseer kan word. ’n Oplossing word daarna voorgehou tesame met ’n numeriese voorbeeld van die toepassing van die voorgestelde oplossing.

  18. Vulnerability of networks of interacting Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocarev, L; Zlatanov, N; Trajanov, D

    2010-05-13

    The concept of vulnerability is introduced for a model of random, dynamical interactions on networks. In this model, known as the influence model, the nodes are arranged in an arbitrary network, while the evolution of the status at a node is according to an internal Markov chain, but with transition probabilities that depend not only on the current status of that node but also on the statuses of the neighbouring nodes. Vulnerability is treated analytically and numerically for several networks with different topological structures, as well as for two real networks--the network of infrastructures and the EU power grid--identifying the most vulnerable nodes of these networks.

  19. Genetic Algorithms Principles Towards Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a general approach based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs to evolve Hidden Markov Models (HMM. The problem appears when experts assign probability values for HMM, they use only some limited inputs. The assigned probability values might not be accurate to serve in other cases related to the same domain. We introduce an approach based on GAs to find
    out the suitable probability values for the HMM to be mostly correct in more cases than what have been used to assign the probability values.

  20. Model-based Software Engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2010-01-01

    The vision of model-based software engineering is to make models the main focus of software development and to automatically generate software from these models. Part of that idea works already today. But, there are still difficulties when it comes to behaviour. Actually, there is no lack in models...

  1. Graph Model Based Indoor Tracking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Søndergaard; Lu, Hua; Yang, Bin

    2009-01-01

    The tracking of the locations of moving objects in large indoor spaces is important, as it enables a range of applications related to, e.g., security and indoor navigation and guidance. This paper presents a graph model based approach to indoor tracking that offers a uniform data management...

  2. Names of Southern African grasses: Name changes and additional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main reasons for changes in botanical names are briefly reviewed, with examples from the lists. At this time, about 1040 grass species and subspecific taxa are recognized in the subcontinent. Keywords: botanical research; botanical research institute; botany; grass; grasses; identification; name change; nomenclature; ...

  3. Cognitive components of picture naming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C J; Paivio, A; Clark, J M

    1996-07-01

    A substantial research literature documents the effects of diverse item attributes, task conditions, and participant characteristics on the case of picture naming. The authors review what the research has revealed about 3 generally accepted stages of naming a pictured object: object identification, name activation, and response generation. They also show that dual coding theory gives a coherent and plausible account of these findings without positing amodal conceptual representations, and they identify issues and methods that may further advance the understanding of picture naming and related cognitive tasks.

  4. Fictional names and fictional discourse

    OpenAIRE

    Panizza, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    [eng] In this dissertation I present a critical study of fiction, focusing on the semantics of fictional names and fictional discourse. I am concerned with the issue of whether fictional names need to refer, and also with the related issue of whether fictional characters need to exist, in order to best account for our linguistic practices involving fictional names. Fictional names like ‘Sherlock Holmes’, ‘Anna Karenina’, ‘Emma Woodhouse’ and ‘Don Quixote of La Mancha’ ordinarily occur in diff...

  5. Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka

    2014-02-01

    In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain.

  6. Epitope discovery with phylogenetic hidden Markov models.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Lacerda, Miguel

    2010-05-01

    Existing methods for the prediction of immunologically active T-cell epitopes are based on the amino acid sequence or structure of pathogen proteins. Additional information regarding the locations of epitopes may be acquired by considering the evolution of viruses in hosts with different immune backgrounds. In particular, immune-dependent evolutionary patterns at sites within or near T-cell epitopes can be used to enhance epitope identification. We have developed a mutation-selection model of T-cell epitope evolution that allows the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype of the host to influence the evolutionary process. This is one of the first examples of the incorporation of environmental parameters into a phylogenetic model and has many other potential applications where the selection pressures exerted on an organism can be related directly to environmental factors. We combine this novel evolutionary model with a hidden Markov model to identify contiguous amino acid positions that appear to evolve under immune pressure in the presence of specific host immune alleles and that therefore represent potential epitopes. This phylogenetic hidden Markov model provides a rigorous probabilistic framework that can be combined with sequence or structural information to improve epitope prediction. As a demonstration, we apply the model to a data set of HIV-1 protein-coding sequences and host HLA genotypes.

  7. Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Grace

    2013-07-01

    J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

  8. Unmixing hyperspectral images using Markov random fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eches, Olivier; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new spectral unmixing strategy based on the normal compositional model that exploits the spatial correlations between the image pixels. The pure materials (referred to as endmembers) contained in the image are assumed to be available (they can be obtained by using an appropriate endmember extraction algorithm), while the corresponding fractions (referred to as abundances) are estimated by the proposed algorithm. Due to physical constraints, the abundances have to satisfy positivity and sum-to-one constraints. The image is divided into homogeneous distinct regions having the same statistical properties for the abundance coefficients. The spatial dependencies within each class are modeled thanks to Potts-Markov random fields. Within a Bayesian framework, prior distributions for the abundances and the associated hyperparameters are introduced. A reparametrization of the abundance coefficients is proposed to handle the physical constraints (positivity and sum-to-one) inherent to hyperspectral imagery. The parameters (abundances), hyperparameters (abundance mean and variance for each class) and the classification map indicating the classes of all pixels in the image are inferred from the resulting joint posterior distribution. To overcome the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to generate samples asymptotically distributed according to the joint posterior of interest. Simulations conducted on synthetic and real data are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

  9. Markov transitions and the propagation of chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottlieb, A.

    1998-01-01

    The propagation of chaos is a central concept of kinetic theory that serves to relate the equations of Boltzmann and Vlasov to the dynamics of many-particle systems. Propagation of chaos means that molecular chaos, i.e., the stochastic independence of two random particles in a many-particle system, persists in time, as the number of particles tends to infinity. We establish a necessary and sufficient condition for a family of general n-particle Markov processes to propagate chaos. This condition is expressed in terms of the Markov transition functions associated to the n-particle processes, and it amounts to saying that chaos of random initial states propagates if it propagates for pure initial states. Our proof of this result relies on the weak convergence approach to the study of chaos due to Sztitman and Tanaka. We assume that the space in which the particles live is homomorphic to a complete and separable metric space so that we may invoke Prohorov's theorem in our proof. We also show that, if the particles can be in only finitely many states, then molecular chaos implies that the specific entropies in the n-particle distributions converge to the entropy of the limiting single-particle distribution

  10. Asymptotic evolution of quantum Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novotny, Jaroslav [FNSPE, CTU in Prague, 115 19 Praha 1 - Stare Mesto (Czech Republic); Alber, Gernot [Institut fuer Angewandte Physik, Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, D-64289 Darmstadt (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The iterated quantum operations, so called quantum Markov chains, play an important role in various branches of physics. They constitute basis for many discrete models capable to explore fundamental physical problems, such as the approach to thermal equilibrium, or the asymptotic dynamics of macroscopic physical systems far from thermal equilibrium. On the other hand, in the more applied area of quantum technology they also describe general characteristic properties of quantum networks or they can describe different quantum protocols in the presence of decoherence. A particularly, an interesting aspect of these quantum Markov chains is their asymptotic dynamics and its characteristic features. We demonstrate there is always a vector subspace (typically low-dimensional) of so-called attractors on which the resulting superoperator governing the iterative time evolution of quantum states can be diagonalized and in which the asymptotic quantum dynamics takes place. As the main result interesting algebraic relations are presented for this set of attractors which allow to specify their dual basis and to determine them in a convenient way. Based on this general theory we show some generalizations concerning the theory of fixed points or asymptotic evolution of random quantum operations.

  11. Monotone measures of ergodicity for Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Keilson

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The following paper, first written in 1974, was never published other than as part of an internal research series. Its lack of publication is unrelated to the merits of the paper and the paper is of current importance by virtue of its relation to the relaxation time. A systematic discussion is provided of the approach of a finite Markov chain to ergodicity by proving the monotonicity of an important set of norms, each measures of egodicity, whether or not time reversibility is present. The paper is of particular interest because the discussion of the relaxation time of a finite Markov chain [2] has only been clean for time reversible chains, a small subset of the chains of interest. This restriction is not present here. Indeed, a new relaxation time quoted quantifies the relaxation time for all finite ergodic chains (cf. the discussion of Q1(t below Equation (1.7]. This relaxation time was developed by Keilson with A. Roy in his thesis [6], yet to be published.

  12. Approximating Markov Chains: What and why

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pincus, S.

    1996-01-01

    Much of the current study of dynamical systems is focused on geometry (e.g., chaos and bifurcations) and ergodic theory. Yet dynamical systems were originally motivated by an attempt to open-quote open-quote solve,close-quote close-quote or at least understand, a discrete-time analogue of differential equations. As such, numerical, analytical solution techniques for dynamical systems would seem desirable. We discuss an approach that provides such techniques, the approximation of dynamical systems by suitable finite state Markov Chains. Steady state distributions for these Markov Chains, a straightforward calculation, will converge to the true dynamical system steady state distribution, with appropriate limit theorems indicated. Thus (i) approximation by a computable, linear map holds the promise of vastly faster steady state solutions for nonlinear, multidimensional differential equations; (ii) the solution procedure is unaffected by the presence or absence of a probability density function for the attractor, entirely skirting singularity, fractal/multifractal, and renormalization considerations. The theoretical machinery underpinning this development also implies that under very general conditions, steady state measures are weakly continuous with control parameter evolution. This means that even though a system may change periodicity, or become chaotic in its limiting behavior, such statistical parameters as the mean, standard deviation, and tail probabilities change continuously, not abruptly with system evolution. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  13. Entropy-based generating Markov partitions for complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubido, Nicolás; Grebogi, Celso; Baptista, Murilo S.

    2018-03-01

    Finding the correct encoding for a generic dynamical system's trajectory is a complicated task: the symbolic sequence needs to preserve the invariant properties from the system's trajectory. In theory, the solution to this problem is found when a Generating Markov Partition (GMP) is obtained, which is only defined once the unstable and stable manifolds are known with infinite precision and for all times. However, these manifolds usually form highly convoluted Euclidean sets, are a priori unknown, and, as it happens in any real-world experiment, measurements are made with finite resolution and over a finite time-span. The task gets even more complicated if the system is a network composed of interacting dynamical units, namely, a high-dimensional complex system. Here, we tackle this task and solve it by defining a method to approximately construct GMPs for any complex system's finite-resolution and finite-time trajectory. We critically test our method on networks of coupled maps, encoding their trajectories into symbolic sequences. We show that these sequences are optimal because they minimise the information loss and also any spurious information added. Consequently, our method allows us to approximately calculate the invariant probability measures of complex systems from the observed data. Thus, we can efficiently define complexity measures that are applicable to a wide range of complex phenomena, such as the characterisation of brain activity from electroencephalogram signals measured at different brain regions or the characterisation of climate variability from temperature anomalies measured at different Earth regions.

  14. Finding and testing network communities by lumped Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccardi, Carlo

    2011-01-01

    Identifying communities (or clusters), namely groups of nodes with comparatively strong internal connectivity, is a fundamental task for deeply understanding the structure and function of a network. Yet, there is a lack of formal criteria for defining communities and for testing their significance. We propose a sharp definition that is based on a quality threshold. By means of a lumped Markov chain model of a random walker, a quality measure called "persistence probability" is associated to a cluster, which is then defined as an "α-community" if such a probability is not smaller than α. Consistently, a partition composed of α-communities is an "α-partition." These definitions turn out to be very effective for finding and testing communities. If a set of candidate partitions is available, setting the desired α-level allows one to immediately select the α-partition with the finest decomposition. Simultaneously, the persistence probabilities quantify the quality of each single community. Given its ability in individually assessing each single cluster, this approach can also disclose single well-defined communities even in networks that overall do not possess a definite clusterized structure.

  15. Finding and testing network communities by lumped Markov chains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Piccardi

    Full Text Available Identifying communities (or clusters, namely groups of nodes with comparatively strong internal connectivity, is a fundamental task for deeply understanding the structure and function of a network. Yet, there is a lack of formal criteria for defining communities and for testing their significance. We propose a sharp definition that is based on a quality threshold. By means of a lumped Markov chain model of a random walker, a quality measure called "persistence probability" is associated to a cluster, which is then defined as an "α-community" if such a probability is not smaller than α. Consistently, a partition composed of α-communities is an "α-partition." These definitions turn out to be very effective for finding and testing communities. If a set of candidate partitions is available, setting the desired α-level allows one to immediately select the α-partition with the finest decomposition. Simultaneously, the persistence probabilities quantify the quality of each single community. Given its ability in individually assessing each single cluster, this approach can also disclose single well-defined communities even in networks that overall do not possess a definite clusterized structure.

  16. A comparison study of support vector machines and hidden Markov models in machinery condition monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miao, Qiang; Huang, Hong Zhong; Fan, Xianfeng

    2007-01-01

    Condition classification is an important step in machinery fault detection, which is a problem of pattern recognition. Currently, there are a lot of techniques in this area and the purpose of this paper is to investigate two popular recognition techniques, namely hidden Markov model and support vector machine. At the beginning, we briefly introduced the procedure of feature extraction and the theoretical background of this paper. The comparison experiment was conducted for gearbox fault detection and the analysis results from this work showed that support vector machine has better classification performance in this area

  17. Pathwise duals of monotone and additive Markov processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sturm, A.; Swart, Jan M.

    -, - (2018) ISSN 0894-9840 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/12/2613 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : pathwise duality * monotone Markov process * additive Markov process * interacting particle system Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.854, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/SI/swart-0465436.pdf

  18. An introduction to hidden Markov models for biological sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1998-01-01

    A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding.......A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding....

  19. Asymptotics for Estimating Equations in Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Vinsløv; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    Results on asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimate in hidden Markov models are extended in two directions. The stationarity assumption is relaxed, which allows for a covariate process influencing the hidden Markov process. Furthermore a class of estimating equations is considered...

  20. Efficient Incorporation of Markov Random Fields in Change Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aanæs, Henrik; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2009-01-01

    of noise, implying that the pixel-wise classifier is also noisy. There is thus a need for incorporating local homogeneity constraints into such a change detection framework. For this modelling task Markov Random Fields are suitable. Markov Random Fields have, however, previously been plagued by lack...

  1. Markov trace on the Yokonuma-Hecke algebra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juyumaya, J.

    2002-11-01

    The objective of this note is to prove that there exists a Markov trace on the Yokonuma-Hecke algebra. A motivation to define a Markov trace is to get polynomial invariants for knots in the sense of Jones construction. (author)

  2. Compositionality for Markov reward chains with fast and silent transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Markovski, J.; Sokolova, A.; Trcka, N.; Vink, de E.P.

    2009-01-01

    A parallel composition is defined for Markov reward chains with stochastic discontinuity, and with fast and silent transitions. In this setting, compositionality with respect to the relevant aggregation preorders is established. For Markov reward chains with fast transitions the preorders are

  3. Model Checking Markov Reward Models with Impulse Rewards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cloth, Lucia; Katoen, Joost-Pieter; Khattri, Maneesh; Pulungan, Reza; Bondavalli, Andrea; Haverkort, Boudewijn; Tang, Dong

    This paper considers model checking of Markov reward models (MRMs), continuous-time Markov chains with state rewards as well as impulse rewards. The reward extension of the logic CSL (Continuous Stochastic Logic) is interpreted over such MRMs, and two numerical algorithms are provided to check the

  4. Recursive smoothers for hidden discrete-time Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lakhdar Aggoun

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a discrete-time Markov chain observed through another Markov chain. The proposed model extends models discussed by Elliott et al. (1995. We propose improved recursive formulae to update smoothed estimates of processes related to the model. These recursive estimates are used to update the parameter of the model via the expectation maximization (EM algorithm.

  5. First hitting probabilities for semi markov chains and estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgiadis, Stylianos

    2017-01-01

    We first consider a stochastic system described by an absorbing semi-Markov chain with finite state space and we introduce the absorption probability to a class of recurrent states. Afterwards, we study the first hitting probability to a subset of states for an irreducible semi-Markov chain...

  6. ANALYTIC WORD RECOGNITION WITHOUT SEGMENTATION BASED ON MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coisy, C.; Belaid, A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, a method for analytic handwritten word recognition based on causal Markov random fields is described. The words models are HMMs where each state corresponds to a letter; each letter is modelled by a NSHP­HMM (Markov field). Global models are build dynamically, and used for recognition

  7. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces ...

  8. Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov decision process. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... This study provides a review of Markov decision processes and investigates its suitability for solutions to portfolio allocation problems under vendor managed inventory in ...

  9. Logics and Models for Stochastic Analysis Beyond Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Kebin

    , because of the generality of ME distributions, we have to leave the world of Markov chains. To support ME distributions with multiple exits, we introduce a multi-exits ME distribution together with a process algebra MEME to express the systems having the semantics as Markov renewal processes with ME...

  10. A name is a name is a name: some thoughts and personal opinions about molluscan scientific names

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dance, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    Since 1758, with the publication of Systema Naturae by Linnaeus, thousands of scientific names have been proposed for molluscs. The derivation and uses of many of them are here examined from various viewpoints, beginning with names based on appearance, size, vertical distribution, and location.

  11. Introduction to the numerical solutions of Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Stewart, Williams J

    1994-01-01

    A cornerstone of applied probability, Markov chains can be used to help model how plants grow, chemicals react, and atoms diffuse - and applications are increasingly being found in such areas as engineering, computer science, economics, and education. To apply the techniques to real problems, however, it is necessary to understand how Markov chains can be solved numerically. In this book, the first to offer a systematic and detailed treatment of the numerical solution of Markov chains, William Stewart provides scientists on many levels with the power to put this theory to use in the actual world, where it has applications in areas as diverse as engineering, economics, and education. His efforts make for essential reading in a rapidly growing field. Here, Stewart explores all aspects of numerically computing solutions of Markov chains, especially when the state is huge. He provides extensive background to both discrete-time and continuous-time Markov chains and examines many different numerical computing metho...

  12. Model-based security testing

    OpenAIRE

    Schieferdecker, Ina; Großmann, Jürgen; Schneider, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security...

  13. Model-based machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Christopher M

    2013-02-13

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications.

  14. Multi-language naming game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jianfeng; Lou, Yang; Chen, Guanrong; Tang, Wallace K. S.

    2018-04-01

    Naming game is a simulation-based experiment used to study the evolution of languages. The conventional naming game focuses on a single language. In this paper, a novel naming game model named multi-language naming game (MLNG) is proposed, where the agents are different-language speakers who cannot communicate with each other without a translator (interpreter) in between. The MLNG model is general, capable of managing k different languages with k ≥ 2. For illustration, the paper only discusses the MLNG with two different languages, and studies five representative network topologies, namely random-graph, WS small-world, NW small-world, scale-free, and random-triangle topologies. Simulation and analysis results both show that: 1) using the network features and based on the proportion of translators the probability of establishing a conversation between two or three agents can be theoretically estimated; 2) the relationship between the convergence speed and the proportion of translators has a power-law-like relation; 3) different agents require different memory sizes, thus a local memory allocation rule is recommended for saving memory resources. The new model and new findings should be useful for further studies of naming games and for better understanding of languages evolution from a dynamical network perspective.

  15. Number names and number understanding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejersbo, Lisser Rye; Misfeldt, Morten

    2014-01-01

    This paper concerns the results from the first year of a three-year research project involving the relationship between Danish number names and their corresponding digits in the canonical base 10 system. The project aims to develop a system to help the students’ understanding of the base 10 syste...... the Danish number names are more complicated than in other languages. Keywords: A research project in grade 0 and 1th in a Danish school, Base-10 system, two-digit number names, semiotic, cognitive perspectives....

  16. The Markov moment problem and extremal problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kreĭn, M G; Louvish, D

    1977-01-01

    In this book, an extensive circle of questions originating in the classical work of P. L. Chebyshev and A. A. Markov is considered from the more modern point of view. It is shown how results and methods of the generalized moment problem are interlaced with various questions of the geometry of convex bodies, algebra, and function theory. From this standpoint, the structure of convex and conical hulls of curves is studied in detail and isoperimetric inequalities for convex hulls are established; a theory of orthogonal and quasiorthogonal polynomials is constructed; problems on limiting values of integrals and on least deviating functions (in various metrics) are generalized and solved; problems in approximation theory and interpolation and extrapolation in various function classes (analytic, absolutely monotone, almost periodic, etc.) are solved, as well as certain problems in optimal control of linear objects.

  17. Learning Markov models for stationary system behaviors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yingke; Mao, Hua; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    to a single long observation sequence, and in these situations existing automatic learning methods cannot be applied. In this paper, we adapt algorithms for learning variable order Markov chains from a single observation sequence of a target system, so that stationary system properties can be verified using......Establishing an accurate model for formal verification of an existing hardware or software system is often a manual process that is both time consuming and resource demanding. In order to ease the model construction phase, methods have recently been proposed for automatically learning accurate...... the learned model. Experiments demonstrate that system properties (formulated as stationary probabilities of LTL formulas) can be reliably identified using the learned model....

  18. Estimation and uncertainty of reversible Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

    2015-11-07

    Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model rely heavily on the reversibility property. The estimation of a reversible transition matrix from simulation data is, therefore, crucial to the successful application of the previously developed theory. In this work, we discuss methods for the maximum likelihood estimation of transition matrices from finite simulation data and present a new algorithm for the estimation if reversibility with respect to a given stationary vector is desired. We also develop new methods for the Bayesian posterior inference of reversible transition matrices with and without given stationary vector taking into account the need for a suitable prior distribution preserving the meta-stable features of the observed process during posterior inference. All algorithms here are implemented in the PyEMMA software--http://pyemma.org--as of version 2.0.

  19. Monte Carlo simulation of Markov unreliability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, E.E.; Boehm, F.

    1984-01-01

    A Monte Carlo method is formulated for the evaluation of the unrealibility of complex systems with known component failure and repair rates. The formulation is in terms of a Markov process allowing dependences between components to be modeled and computational efficiencies to be achieved in the Monte Carlo simulation. Two variance reduction techniques, forced transition and failure biasing, are employed to increase computational efficiency of the random walk procedure. For an example problem these result in improved computational efficiency by more than three orders of magnitudes over analog Monte Carlo. The method is generalized to treat problems with distributed failure and repair rate data, and a batching technique is introduced and shown to result in substantial increases in computational efficiency for an example problem. A method for separating the variance due to the data uncertainty from that due to the finite number of random walks is presented. (orig.)

  20. Recombination Processes and Nonlinear Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirogov, Sergey; Rybko, Alexander; Kalinina, Anastasia; Gelfand, Mikhail

    2016-09-01

    Bacteria are known to exchange genetic information by horizontal gene transfer. Since the frequency of homologous recombination depends on the similarity between the recombining segments, several studies examined whether this could lead to the emergence of subspecies. Most of them simulated fixed-size Wright-Fisher populations, in which the genetic drift should be taken into account. Here, we use nonlinear Markov processes to describe a bacterial population evolving under mutation and recombination. We consider a population structure as a probability measure on the space of genomes. This approach implies the infinite population size limit, and thus, the genetic drift is not assumed. We prove that under these conditions, the emergence of subspecies is impossible.

  1. SHARP ENTRYWISE PERTURBATION BOUNDS FOR MARKOV CHAINS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiede, Erik; VAN Koten, Brian; Weare, Jonathan

    For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem in computational statistical physics. We have derived perturbation bounds on the relative error of the invariant distribution that reveal these variations in sensitivity. Our bounds are sharp, we do not impose any structural assumptions on the transition matrix or on the perturbation, and computing the bounds has the same complexity as computing the invariant distribution or computing other bounds in the literature. Moreover, our bounds have a simple interpretation in terms of hitting times, which can be used to draw intuitive but rigorous conclusions about the sensitivity of a chain to various types of perturbations.

  2. A Markov Chain Model for Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelos Dassios

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering arrival of events, such as jumps, bankruptcies, crises and catastrophes in finance, insurance and economics with both internal contagion risk and external common risk. Key distributional properties, such as the moments and probability generating functions, for this process are derived. Some special cases with explicit results and numerical examples and the motivation for further actuarial applications are also discussed. The model can be considered a generalisation of the dynamic contagion process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011.

  3. Markov state models of protein misfolding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirur, Anshul; De Sancho, David; Best, Robert B.

    2016-02-01

    Markov state models (MSMs) are an extremely useful tool for understanding the conformational dynamics of macromolecules and for analyzing MD simulations in a quantitative fashion. They have been extensively used for peptide and protein folding, for small molecule binding, and for the study of native ensemble dynamics. Here, we adapt the MSM methodology to gain insight into the dynamics of misfolded states. To overcome possible flaws in root-mean-square deviation (RMSD)-based metrics, we introduce a novel discretization approach, based on coarse-grained contact maps. In addition, we extend the MSM methodology to include "sink" states in order to account for the irreversibility (on simulation time scales) of processes like protein misfolding. We apply this method to analyze the mechanism of misfolding of tandem repeats of titin domains, and how it is influenced by confinement in a chaperonin-like cavity.

  4. Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2003-06-01

    We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

  5. Anatomy Ontology Matching Using Markov Logic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunhua Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The anatomy of model species is described in ontologies, which are used to standardize the annotations of experimental data, such as gene expression patterns. To compare such data between species, we need to establish relationships between ontologies describing different species. Ontology matching is a kind of solutions to find semantic correspondences between entities of different ontologies. Markov logic networks which unify probabilistic graphical model and first-order logic provide an excellent framework for ontology matching. We combine several different matching strategies through first-order logic formulas according to the structure of anatomy ontologies. Experiments on the adult mouse anatomy and the human anatomy have demonstrated the effectiveness of proposed approach in terms of the quality of result alignment.

  6. Crossing over...Markov meets Mendel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mneimneh, Saad

    2012-01-01

    Chromosomal crossover is a biological mechanism to combine parental traits. It is perhaps the first mechanism ever taught in any introductory biology class. The formulation of crossover, and resulting recombination, came about 100 years after Mendel's famous experiments. To a great extent, this formulation is consistent with the basic genetic findings of Mendel. More importantly, it provides a mathematical insight for his two laws (and corrects them). From a mathematical perspective, and while it retains similarities, genetic recombination guarantees diversity so that we do not rapidly converge to the same being. It is this diversity that made the study of biology possible. In particular, the problem of genetic mapping and linkage-one of the first efforts towards a computational approach to biology-relies heavily on the mathematical foundation of crossover and recombination. Nevertheless, as students we often overlook the mathematics of these phenomena. Emphasizing the mathematical aspect of Mendel's laws through crossover and recombination will prepare the students to make an early realization that biology, in addition to being experimental, IS a computational science. This can serve as a first step towards a broader curricular transformation in teaching biological sciences. I will show that a simple and modern treatment of Mendel's laws using a Markov chain will make this step possible, and it will only require basic college-level probability and calculus. My personal teaching experience confirms that students WANT to know Markov chains because they hear about them from bioinformaticists all the time. This entire exposition is based on three homework problems that I designed for a course in computational biology. A typical reader is, therefore, an instructional staff member or a student in a computational field (e.g., computer science, mathematics, statistics, computational biology, bioinformatics). However, other students may easily follow by omitting the

  7. Crossing over...Markov meets Mendel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saad Mneimneh

    Full Text Available Chromosomal crossover is a biological mechanism to combine parental traits. It is perhaps the first mechanism ever taught in any introductory biology class. The formulation of crossover, and resulting recombination, came about 100 years after Mendel's famous experiments. To a great extent, this formulation is consistent with the basic genetic findings of Mendel. More importantly, it provides a mathematical insight for his two laws (and corrects them. From a mathematical perspective, and while it retains similarities, genetic recombination guarantees diversity so that we do not rapidly converge to the same being. It is this diversity that made the study of biology possible. In particular, the problem of genetic mapping and linkage-one of the first efforts towards a computational approach to biology-relies heavily on the mathematical foundation of crossover and recombination. Nevertheless, as students we often overlook the mathematics of these phenomena. Emphasizing the mathematical aspect of Mendel's laws through crossover and recombination will prepare the students to make an early realization that biology, in addition to being experimental, IS a computational science. This can serve as a first step towards a broader curricular transformation in teaching biological sciences. I will show that a simple and modern treatment of Mendel's laws using a Markov chain will make this step possible, and it will only require basic college-level probability and calculus. My personal teaching experience confirms that students WANT to know Markov chains because they hear about them from bioinformaticists all the time. This entire exposition is based on three homework problems that I designed for a course in computational biology. A typical reader is, therefore, an instructional staff member or a student in a computational field (e.g., computer science, mathematics, statistics, computational biology, bioinformatics. However, other students may easily follow by

  8. Bayesian tomography by interacting Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romary, T.

    2017-12-01

    In seismic tomography, we seek to determine the velocity of the undergound from noisy first arrival travel time observations. In most situations, this is an ill posed inverse problem that admits several unperfect solutions. Given an a priori distribution over the parameters of the velocity model, the Bayesian formulation allows to state this problem as a probabilistic one, with a solution under the form of a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is generally high dimensional and may exhibit multimodality. Moreover, as it is known only up to a constant, the only sensible way to addressthis problem is to try to generate simulations from the posterior. The natural tools to perform these simulations are Monte Carlo Markov chains (MCMC). Classical implementations of MCMC algorithms generally suffer from slow mixing: the generated states are slow to enter the stationary regime, that is to fit the observations, and when one mode of the posterior is eventually identified, it may become difficult to visit others. Using a varying temperature parameter relaxing the constraint on the data may help to enter the stationary regime. Besides, the sequential nature of MCMC makes them ill fitted toparallel implementation. Running a large number of chains in parallel may be suboptimal as the information gathered by each chain is not mutualized. Parallel tempering (PT) can be seen as a first attempt to make parallel chains at different temperatures communicate but only exchange information between current states. In this talk, I will show that PT actually belongs to a general class of interacting Markov chains algorithm. I will also show that this class enables to design interacting schemes that can take advantage of the whole history of the chain, by authorizing exchanges toward already visited states. The algorithms will be illustrated with toy examples and an application to first arrival traveltime tomography.

  9. A reward semi-Markov process with memory for wind speed modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

    2012-04-01

    -order Markov chain with different number of states, and Weibull distribution. All this model use Markov chains to generate synthetic wind speed time series but the search for a better model is still open. Approaching this issue, we applied new models which are generalization of Markov models. More precisely we applied semi-Markov models to generate synthetic wind speed time series. The primary goal of this analysis is the study of the time history of the wind in order to assess its reliability as a source of power and to determine the associated storage levels required. In order to assess this issue we use a probabilistic model based on indexed semi-Markov process [4] to which a reward structure is attached. Our model is used to calculate the expected energy produced by a given turbine and its variability expressed by the variance of the process. Our results can be used to compare different wind farms based on their reward and also on the risk of missed production due to the intrinsic variability of the wind speed process. The model is used to generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations and backtesting procedure is used to compare results on first and second oder moments of rewards between real and synthetic data. [1] A. Shamshad, M.A. Bawadi, W.M.W. Wan Hussin, T.A. Majid, S.A.M. Sanusi, First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic gen- eration of wind speed time series, Energy 30 (2005) 693-708. [2] H. Nfaoui, H. Essiarab, A.A.M. Sayigh, A stochastic Markov chain model for simulating wind speed time series at Tangiers, Morocco, Re- newable Energy 29 (2004) 1407-1418. [3] F. Youcef Ettoumi, H. Sauvageot, A.-E.-H. Adane, Statistical bivariate modeling of wind using first-order Markov chain and Weibull distribu- tion, Renewable Energy 28 (2003) 1787-1802. [4]F. Petroni, G. D'Amico, F. Prattico, Indexed semi-Markov process for wind speed modeling. To be submitted.

  10. Basic problems and solution methods for two-dimensional continuous 3 × 3 order hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Guo-gang; Tang, Gui-jin; Gan, Zong-liang; Cui, Zi-guan; Zhu, Xiu-chang

    2016-01-01

    A novel model referred to as two-dimensional continuous 3 × 3 order hidden Markov model is put forward to avoid the disadvantages of the classical hypothesis of two-dimensional continuous hidden Markov model. This paper presents three equivalent definitions of the model, in which the state transition probability relies on not only immediate horizontal and vertical states but also immediate diagonal state, and in which the probability density of the observation relies on not only current state but also immediate horizontal and vertical states. The paper focuses on the three basic problems of the model, namely probability density calculation, parameters estimation and path backtracking. Some algorithms solving the questions are theoretically derived, by exploiting the idea that the sequences of states on rows or columns of the model can be viewed as states of a one-dimensional continuous 1 × 2 order hidden Markov model. Simulation results further demonstrate the performance of the algorithms. Because there are more statistical characteristics in the structure of the proposed new model, it can more accurately describe some practical problems, as compared to two-dimensional continuous hidden Markov model.

  11. Asteroid named after CAS scientist

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ An asteroid has been named after CAS astronomy historian XI Zezong with the approval of the International Minor Planet Nomenclature Committee (IMPNC), announced China's National Astronomical Observatories at CAS (NAOC) on 17 August.

  12. Dictionary of Minor Planet Names

    CERN Document Server

    Schmadel, Lutz D

    2007-01-01

    Dictionary of Minor Planet Names, Fifth Edition, is the official reference for the field of the IAU, which serves as the internationally recognised authority for assigning designations to celestial bodies and any surface features on them. The accelerating rate of the discovery of minor planets has not only made a new edition of this established compendium necessary but has also significantly altered its scope: this thoroughly revised edition concentrates on the approximately 10,000 minor planets that carry a name. It provides authoritative information about the basis for all names of minor planets. In addition to being of practical value for identification purposes, this collection provides a most interesting historical insight into the work of those astronomers who over two centuries vested their affinities in a rich and colorful variety of ingenious names, from heavenly goddesses to more prosaic constructions. The fifth edition serves as the primary reference, with plans for complementary booklets with newl...

  13. Modeling Uncertainty of Directed Movement via Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YIN Zhangcai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic time geography (PTG is suggested as an extension of (classical time geography, in order to present the uncertainty of an agent located at the accessible position by probability. This may provide a quantitative basis for most likely finding an agent at a location. In recent years, PTG based on normal distribution or Brown bridge has been proposed, its variance, however, is irrelevant with the agent's speed or divergent with the increase of the speed; so they are difficult to take into account application pertinence and stability. In this paper, a new method is proposed to model PTG based on Markov chain. Firstly, a bidirectional conditions Markov chain is modeled, the limit of which, when the moving speed is large enough, can be regarded as the Brown bridge, thus has the characteristics of digital stability. Then, the directed movement is mapped to Markov chains. The essential part is to build step length, the state space and transfer matrix of Markov chain according to the space and time position of directional movement, movement speed information, to make sure the Markov chain related to the movement speed. Finally, calculating continuously the probability distribution of the directed movement at any time by the Markov chains, it can be get the possibility of an agent located at the accessible position. Experimental results show that, the variance based on Markov chains not only is related to speed, but also is tending towards stability with increasing the agent's maximum speed.

  14. Irreversible Local Markov Chains with Rapid Convergence towards Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapfer, Sebastian C.; Krauth, Werner

    2017-12-01

    We study the continuous one-dimensional hard-sphere model and present irreversible local Markov chains that mix on faster time scales than the reversible heat bath or Metropolis algorithms. The mixing time scales appear to fall into two distinct universality classes, both faster than for reversible local Markov chains. The event-chain algorithm, the infinitesimal limit of one of these Markov chains, belongs to the class presenting the fastest decay. For the lattice-gas limit of the hard-sphere model, reversible local Markov chains correspond to the symmetric simple exclusion process (SEP) with periodic boundary conditions. The two universality classes for irreversible Markov chains are realized by the totally asymmetric SEP (TASEP), and by a faster variant (lifted TASEP) that we propose here. We discuss how our irreversible hard-sphere Markov chains generalize to arbitrary repulsive pair interactions and carry over to higher dimensions through the concept of lifted Markov chains and the recently introduced factorized Metropolis acceptance rule.

  15. Elemental Etymology: What's in a Name?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, David W.

    1985-01-01

    Examines the origin of the names (or etymologies) of the chemical elements. Includes tables listing elements: (1) with names of obscure origin; (2) named for colors; (3) named after real or mythical people; (4) named after places; (5) named after heavenly bodies; and (6) having names of miscellaneous origin. (JN)

  16. Model-Based Security Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina Schieferdecker

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security testing (MBST is a relatively new field and especially dedicated to the systematic and efficient specification and documentation of security test objectives, security test cases and test suites, as well as to their automated or semi-automated generation. In particular, the combination of security modelling and test generation approaches is still a challenge in research and of high interest for industrial applications. MBST includes e.g. security functional testing, model-based fuzzing, risk- and threat-oriented testing, and the usage of security test patterns. This paper provides a survey on MBST techniques and the related models as well as samples of new methods and tools that are under development in the European ITEA2-project DIAMONDS.

  17. Markov processes from K. Ito's perspective (AM-155)

    CERN Document Server

    Stroock, Daniel W

    2003-01-01

    Kiyosi Itô''s greatest contribution to probability theory may be his introduction of stochastic differential equations to explain the Kolmogorov-Feller theory of Markov processes. Starting with the geometric ideas that guided him, this book gives an account of Itô''s program. The modern theory of Markov processes was initiated by A. N. Kolmogorov. However, Kolmogorov''s approach was too analytic to reveal the probabilistic foundations on which it rests. In particular, it hides the central role played by the simplest Markov processes: those with independent, identically distributed incremen

  18. Sampling rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitelam, Stephen

    2018-03-01

    We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate functions (and upper bounds on such functions) for dynamical quantities extensive in the length of the Markov chain. We illustrate the method using a series of simple examples, and use it to study the fluctuations of a lattice-based model of active matter that can undergo motility-induced phase separation.

  19. Markov's theorem and algorithmically non-recognizable combinatorial manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shtan'ko, M A

    2004-01-01

    We prove the theorem of Markov on the existence of an algorithmically non-recognizable combinatorial n-dimensional manifold for every n≥4. We construct for the first time a concrete manifold which is algorithmically non-recognizable. A strengthened form of Markov's theorem is proved using the combinatorial methods of regular neighbourhoods and handle theory. The proofs coincide for all n≥4. We use Borisov's group with insoluble word problem. It has two generators and twelve relations. The use of this group forms the base for proving the strengthened form of Markov's theorem

  20. Naming analog clocks conceptually facilitates naming digital clocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meeuwissen, M.H.W.; Roelofs, A.P.A.; Levelt, W.J.M.

    2004-01-01

    Naming digital clocks (e.g., 2:45, say "quarter to three") requires conceptual operations on the minute and hour information displayed in the input for producing the correct relative time expression. The interplay of these conceptual operations was investigated using a repetition priming paradigm.

  1. Filtering of a Markov Jump Process with Counting Observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ceci, C.; Gerardi, A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper concerns the filtering of an R d -valued Markov pure jump process when only the total number of jumps are observed. Strong and weak uniqueness for the solutions of the filtering equations are discussed

  2. The Independence of Markov's Principle in Type Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coquand, Thierry; Mannaa, Bassel

    2017-01-01

    for the generic point of this model. Instead we design an extension of type theory, which intuitively extends type theory by the addition of a generic point of Cantor space. We then show the consistency of this extension by a normalization argument. Markov's principle does not hold in this extension......In this paper, we show that Markov's principle is not derivable in dependent type theory with natural numbers and one universe. One way to prove this would be to remark that Markov's principle does not hold in a sheaf model of type theory over Cantor space, since Markov's principle does not hold......, and it follows that it cannot be proved in type theory....

  3. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  4. Markov Chain: A Predictive Model for Manpower Planning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, Recruitment, Promotion, .... movement of the workforce in Jordan productivity .... Planning periods, with T being the horizon, the value of t represents a session.

  5. Continuous-time Markov decision processes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Xianping

    2009-01-01

    This volume provides the first book entirely devoted to recent developments on the theory and applications of continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs). The MDPs presented here include most of the cases that arise in applications.

  6. A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (SPHOMMCM) is presented. Moreover, parameter estimation method of TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments shows the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  7. A tridiagonal parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present a tridiagonal parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (TPHOMMCM). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  8. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model. (HMM) based ... the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum ..... data collection teams of Snow and Avalanche Study.

  9. Markov chain: a predictive model for manpower planning | Ezugwu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In respect of organizational management, numerous previous studies have ... and to forecast the academic staff structure of the university in the next five years. ... Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, ...

  10. A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ye

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.

  11. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  12. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    OpenAIRE

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Velázquez, J. C.; Hallen, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure ...

  13. On almost-periodic points of a topological Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogatyi, Semeon A; Redkozubov, Vadim V

    2012-01-01

    We prove that a transitive topological Markov chain has almost-periodic points of all D-periods. Moreover, every D-period is realized by continuously many distinct minimal sets. We give a simple constructive proof of the result which asserts that any transitive topological Markov chain has periodic points of almost all periods, and study the structure of the finite set of positive integers that are not periods.

  14. On mean reward variance in semi-Markov processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 3 (2005), s. 387-397 ISSN 1432-2994 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/05/0115; GA ČR(CZ) GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Markov and semi-Markov processes with rewards * variance of cumulative reward * asymptotic behaviour Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.259, year: 2005

  15. Reliability estimation of semi-Markov systems: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouhbi, Brahim; Limnios, Nikolaos

    1997-01-01

    In this article, we are concerned with the estimation of the reliability and the availability of a turbo-generator rotor using a set of data observed in a real engineering situation provided by Electricite De France (EDF). The rotor is modeled by a semi-Markov process, which is used to estimate the rotor's reliability and availability. To do this, we present a method for estimating the semi-Markov kernel from a censored data

  16. Quantum tomography, phase-space observables and generalized Markov kernels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pellonpaeae, Juha-Pekka

    2009-01-01

    We construct a generalized Markov kernel which transforms the observable associated with the homodyne tomography into a covariant phase-space observable with a regular kernel state. Illustrative examples are given in the cases of a 'Schroedinger cat' kernel state and the Cahill-Glauber s-parametrized distributions. Also we consider an example of a kernel state when the generalized Markov kernel cannot be constructed.

  17. Moving eyes and naming objects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meulen, F.F. van der

    2001-01-01

    The coordination between eye movements and speech was examined while speakers were naming objects. Earlier research has shown that eye movements reflect on the underlying visual attention. Also, eye movements were found to reflect upon not only the visual and conceptual processing of an object, but

  18. Can You Say My Name?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erz, Antonia; Christensen, Bo T.

    affect their judgments of people and objects. We extend this research by investigating the effect of phonological fluency on recognition and recall of novel non-word brand names in three laboratory experiments. The results provide us with a more fine-grained idea of fluency effects on memory of non...

  19. African names for American plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andel, van T.R.

    2015-01-01

    African slaves brought plant knowledge to the New World, sometimes applying it to related plants they found there and sometimes bringing Old World plants with them. By tracing the linguistic parallels between names for plants in African languages and in communities descended from African slaves,

  20. Academy named after newsreader's wife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-24

    AN ADMIRAL nurse academy named in honour of Bonnie Suchet, the wife of former newsreader John Suchet, has opened. The 'virtual' academy, set up by charity dementia UK, Canterbury Christ Church University and the Avante Partnership, will provide continuing professional development and a networking environment for n nurses through its website. Ms Suchet has Alzheimer's disease and is in a care home.

  1. Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrzoskowicz, Adam

    1993-11-01

    This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.

  2. Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyet Nguyen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hidden Markov model (HMM is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI, industrial production index (INDPRO, stock market index (S&P 500 and market volatility (VIX. At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.

  3. Stability and perturbations of countable Markov maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Thomas; Munday, Sara; Sahlsten, Tuomas

    2018-04-01

    Let T and , , be countable Markov maps such that the branches of converge pointwise to the branches of T, as . We study the stability of various quantities measuring the singularity (dimension, Hölder exponent etc) of the topological conjugacy between and T when . This is a well-understood problem for maps with finitely-many branches, and the quantities are stable for small ɛ, that is, they converge to their expected values if . For the infinite branch case their stability might be expected to fail, but we prove that even in the infinite branch case the quantity is stable under some natural regularity assumptions on and T (under which, for instance, the Hölder exponent of fails to be stable). Our assumptions apply for example in the case of Gauss map, various Lüroth maps and accelerated Manneville-Pomeau maps when varying the parameter α. For the proof we introduce a mass transportation method from the cusp that allows us to exploit thermodynamical ideas from the finite branch case. Dedicated to the memory of Bernd O Stratmann

  4. Lectures from Markov processes to Brownian motion

    CERN Document Server

    Chung, Kai Lai

    1982-01-01

    This book evolved from several stacks of lecture notes written over a decade and given in classes at slightly varying levels. In transforming the over­ lapping material into a book, I aimed at presenting some of the best features of the subject with a minimum of prerequisities and technicalities. (Needless to say, one man's technicality is another's professionalism. ) But a text frozen in print does not allow for the latitude of the classroom; and the tendency to expand becomes harder to curb without the constraints of time and audience. The result is that this volume contains more topics and details than I had intended, but I hope the forest is still visible with the trees. The book begins at the beginning with the Markov property, followed quickly by the introduction of option al times and martingales. These three topics in the discrete parameter setting are fully discussed in my book A Course In Probability Theory (second edition, Academic Press, 1974). The latter will be referred to throughout this book ...

  5. Markov branching in the vertex splitting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefánsson, Sigurdur Örn

    2012-01-01

    We study a special case of the vertex splitting model which is a recent model of randomly growing trees. For any finite maximum vertex degree D, we find a one parameter model, with parameter α element of [0,1] which has a so-called Markov branching property. When D=∞ we find a two parameter model with an additional parameter γ element of [0,1] which also has this feature. In the case D = 3, the model bears resemblance to Ford's α-model of phylogenetic trees and when D=∞ it is similar to its generalization, the αγ-model. For α = 0, the model reduces to the well known model of preferential attachment. In the case α > 0, we prove convergence of the finite volume probability measures, generated by the growth rules, to a measure on infinite trees which is concentrated on the set of trees with a single spine. We show that the annealed Hausdorff dimension with respect to the infinite volume measure is 1/α. When γ = 0 the model reduces to a model of growing caterpillar graphs in which case we prove that the Hausdorff dimension is almost surely 1/α and that the spectral dimension is almost surely 2/(1 + α). We comment briefly on the distribution of vertex degrees and correlations between degrees of neighbouring vertices

  6. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  7. Markov source model for printed music decoding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopec, Gary E.; Chou, Philip A.; Maltz, David A.

    1995-03-01

    This paper describes a Markov source model for a simple subset of printed music notation. The model is based on the Adobe Sonata music symbol set and a message language of our own design. Chord imaging is the most complex part of the model. Much of the complexity follows from a rule of music typography that requires the noteheads for adjacent pitches to be placed on opposite sides of the chord stem. This rule leads to a proliferation of cases for other typographic details such as dot placement. We describe the language of message strings accepted by the model and discuss some of the imaging issues associated with various aspects of the message language. We also point out some aspects of music notation that appear problematic for a finite-state representation. Development of the model was greatly facilitated by the duality between image synthesis and image decoding. Although our ultimate objective was a music image model for use in decoding, most of the development proceeded by using the evolving model for image synthesis, since it is computationally far less costly to image a message than to decode an image.

  8. NonMarkov Ito Processes with 1- state memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2010-08-01

    A Markov process, by definition, cannot depend on any previous state other than the last observed state. An Ito process implies the Fokker-Planck and Kolmogorov backward time partial differential eqns. for transition densities, which in turn imply the Chapman-Kolmogorov eqn., but without requiring the Markov condition. We present a class of Ito process superficially resembling Markov processes, but with 1-state memory. In finance, such processes would obey the efficient market hypothesis up through the level of pair correlations. These stochastic processes have been mislabeled in recent literature as 'nonlinear Markov processes'. Inspired by Doob and Feller, who pointed out that the ChapmanKolmogorov eqn. is not restricted to Markov processes, we exhibit a Gaussian Ito transition density with 1-state memory in the drift coefficient that satisfies both of Kolmogorov's partial differential eqns. and also the Chapman-Kolmogorov eqn. In addition, we show that three of the examples from McKean's seminal 1966 paper are also nonMarkov Ito processes. Last, we show that the transition density of the generalized Black-Scholes type partial differential eqn. describes a martingale, and satisfies the ChapmanKolmogorov eqn. This leads to the shortest-known proof that the Green function of the Black-Scholes eqn. with variable diffusion coefficient provides the so-called martingale measure of option pricing.

  9. Switching Markov chains for a holistic modeling of SIS unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechri, Walid; Simon, Christophe; BenOthman, Kamel

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a holistic approach to model the Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS). The model is based on Switching Markov Chain and integrates several parameters like Common Cause Failure, Imperfect Proof testing, partial proof testing, etc. The basic concepts of Switching Markov Chain applied to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the unavailability for a case study is presented. The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows us to assess the effect of each parameter on the SIS performance. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. - Highlights: • A holistic approach to model the unavailability safety systems using Switching Markov chains. • The model integrates several parameters like probability of failure due to the test, the probability of not detecting a failure in a test. • The basic concepts of the Switching Markov Chains are introduced and applied to compute the unavailability for safety systems. • The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows assessing the effect of each parameter on the chemical reactor performance

  10. Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin

    2016-01-01

    This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis

  11. Probability distributions for Markov chain based quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balu, Radhakrishnan; Liu, Chaobin; Venegas-Andraca, Salvador E.

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the probability distributions of the quantum walks induced from Markov chains by Szegedy (2004). The first part of this paper is devoted to the quantum walks induced from finite state Markov chains. It is shown that the probability distribution on the states of the underlying Markov chain is always convergent in the Cesaro sense. In particular, we deduce that the limiting distribution is uniform if the transition matrix is symmetric. In the case of a non-symmetric Markov chain, we exemplify that the limiting distribution of the quantum walk is not necessarily identical with the stationary distribution of the underlying irreducible Markov chain. The Szegedy scheme can be extended to infinite state Markov chains (random walks). In the second part, we formulate the quantum walk induced from a lazy random walk on the line. We then obtain the weak limit of the quantum walk. It is noted that the current quantum walk appears to spread faster than its counterpart-quantum walk on the line driven by the Grover coin discussed in literature. The paper closes with an outlook on possible future directions.

  12. Segmenting Continuous Motions with Hidden Semi-markov Models and Gaussian Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoaki Nakamura

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Humans divide perceived continuous information into segments to facilitate recognition. For example, humans can segment speech waves into recognizable morphemes. Analogously, continuous motions are segmented into recognizable unit actions. People can divide continuous information into segments without using explicit segment points. This capacity for unsupervised segmentation is also useful for robots, because it enables them to flexibly learn languages, gestures, and actions. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process-hidden semi-Markov model (GP-HSMM that can divide continuous time series data into segments in an unsupervised manner. Our proposed method consists of a generative model based on the hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM, the emission distributions of which are Gaussian processes (GPs. Continuous time series data is generated by connecting segments generated by the GP. Segmentation can be achieved by using forward filtering-backward sampling to estimate the model's parameters, including the lengths and classes of the segments. In an experiment using the CMU motion capture dataset, we tested GP-HSMM with motion capture data containing simple exercise motions; the results of this experiment showed that the proposed GP-HSMM was comparable with other methods. We also conducted an experiment using karate motion capture data, which is more complex than exercise motion capture data; in this experiment, the segmentation accuracy of GP-HSMM was 0.92, which outperformed other methods.

  13. Hidden markov model for the prediction of transmembrane proteins using MATLAB.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Navaneet; Shanker, Sudhanshu; Singh, Vinay Kumar; Sinha, Dhiraj; Pandey, Paras Nath

    2011-01-01

    Since membranous proteins play a key role in drug targeting therefore transmembrane proteins prediction is active and challenging area of biological sciences. Location based prediction of transmembrane proteins are significant for functional annotation of protein sequences. Hidden markov model based method was widely applied for transmembrane topology prediction. Here we have presented a revised and a better understanding model than an existing one for transmembrane protein prediction. Scripting on MATLAB was built and compiled for parameter estimation of model and applied this model on amino acid sequence to know the transmembrane and its adjacent locations. Estimated model of transmembrane topology was based on TMHMM model architecture. Only 7 super states are defined in the given dataset, which were converted to 96 states on the basis of their length in sequence. Accuracy of the prediction of model was observed about 74 %, is a good enough in the area of transmembrane topology prediction. Therefore we have concluded the hidden markov model plays crucial role in transmembrane helices prediction on MATLAB platform and it could also be useful for drug discovery strategy. The database is available for free at bioinfonavneet@gmail.comvinaysingh@bhu.ac.in.

  14. Naming names: the first women taxonomists in mycology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Maroske

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The transition from amateur to professional in natural history is generally regarded as having taken place in the nineteenth century, but landmark events such as the 1917 appointment of mycologist Johanna Westerdijk (1883–1961 as the first female professor in the Netherlands indicate that the pattern of change for women was more varied and delayed than for men. We investigate this transition in mycology, and identify only 43 women in the Western World who published scientific mycological literature pre-1900, of whom twelve published new fungal taxa. By charting the emergence of these women over time, and comparing the output of self-taught amateurs and university graduates, we establish the key role of access to higher education in female participation in mycology. Using a suite of strategies, six of the self-taught amateurs managed to overcome their educational disadvantages and name names — Catharina Dörrien (the first to name a fungal taxon, Marie-Anne Libert, Mary Elizabeth Banning, Élise-Caroline Bommer, Mariette Rousseau, and Annie Lorrain Smith. By 1900, the professional era for women in mycology was underway, and increasing numbers published new taxa. Parity with male colleagues in recognition and promotion, however, remains an ongoing issue. Key words: Amateurs, Fungi, Gender studies, History of science, Plant pathology

  15. An open Markov chain scheme model for a credit consumption portfolio fed by ARIMA and SARMA processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esquível, Manuel L.; Fernandes, José Moniz; Guerreiro, Gracinda R.

    2016-06-01

    We introduce a schematic formalism for the time evolution of a random population entering some set of classes and such that each member of the population evolves among these classes according to a scheme based on a Markov chain model. We consider that the flow of incoming members is modeled by a time series and we detail the time series structure of the elements in each of the classes. We present a practical application to data from a credit portfolio of a Cape Verdian bank; after modeling the entering population in two different ways - namely as an ARIMA process and as a deterministic sigmoid type trend plus a SARMA process for the residues - we simulate the behavior of the population and compare the results. We get that the second method is more accurate in describing the behavior of the populations when compared to the observed values in a direct simulation of the Markov chain.

  16. FuzzyStatProb: An R Package for the Estimation of Fuzzy Stationary Probabilities from a Sequence of Observations of an Unknown Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo J. Villacorta

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Markov chains are well-established probabilistic models of a wide variety of real systems that evolve along time. Countless examples of applications of Markov chains that successfully capture the probabilistic nature of real problems include areas as diverse as biology, medicine, social science, and engineering. One interesting feature which characterizes certain kinds of Markov chains is their stationary distribution, which stands for the global fraction of time the system spends in each state. The computation of the stationary distribution requires precise knowledge of the transition probabilities. When the only information available is a sequence of observations drawn from the system, such probabilities have to be estimated. Here we review an existing method to estimate fuzzy transition probabilities from observations and, with them, obtain the fuzzy stationary distribution of the resulting fuzzy Markov chain. The method also works when the user directly provides fuzzy transition probabilities. We provide an implementation in the R environment that is the first available to the community and serves as a proof of concept. We demonstrate the usefulness of our proposal with computational experiments on a toy problem, namely a time-homogeneous Markov chain that guides the randomized movement of an autonomous robot that patrols a small area.

  17. Issues in practical model-based diagnosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, R.R.; Bakker, R.R.; van den Bempt, P.C.A.; van den Bempt, P.C.A.; Mars, Nicolaas; Out, D.-J.; Out, D.J.; van Soest, D.C.; van Soes, D.C.

    1993-01-01

    The model-based diagnosis project at the University of Twente has been directed at improving the practical usefulness of model-based diagnosis. In cooperation with industrial partners, the research addressed the modeling problem and the efficiency problem in model-based reasoning. Main results of

  18. Model-based sensor diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milgram, J.; Dormoy, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    Running a nuclear power plant involves monitoring data provided by the installation's sensors. Operators and computerized systems then use these data to establish a diagnostic of the plant. However, the instrumentation system is complex, and is not immune to faults and failures. This paper presents a system for detecting sensor failures using a topological description of the installation and a set of component models. This model of the plant implicitly contains relations between sensor data. These relations must always be checked if all the components are functioning correctly. The failure detection task thus consists of checking these constraints. The constraints are extracted in two stages. Firstly, a qualitative model of their existence is built using structural analysis. Secondly, the models are formally handled according to the results of the structural analysis, in order to establish the constraints on the sensor data. This work constitutes an initial step in extending model-based diagnosis, as the information on which it is based is suspect. This work will be followed by surveillance of the detection system. When the instrumentation is assumed to be sound, the unverified constraints indicate errors on the plant model. (authors). 8 refs., 4 figs

  19. The mean field theory in EM procedures for blind Markov random field image restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J

    1993-01-01

    A Markov random field (MRF) model-based EM (expectation-maximization) procedure for simultaneously estimating the degradation model and restoring the image is described. The MRF is a coupled one which provides continuity (inside regions of smooth gray tones) and discontinuity (at region boundaries) constraints for the restoration problem which is, in general, ill posed. The computational difficulty associated with the EM procedure for MRFs is resolved by using the mean field theory from statistical mechanics. An orthonormal blur decomposition is used to reduce the chances of undesirable locally optimal estimates. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world images show that this approach provides good blur estimates and restored images. The restored images are comparable to those obtained by a Wiener filter in mean-square error, but are most visually pleasing.

  20. Input modeling with phase-type distributions and Markov models theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Buchholz, Peter; Felko, Iryna

    2014-01-01

    Containing a summary of several recent results on Markov-based input modeling in a coherent notation, this book introduces and compares algorithms for parameter fitting and gives an overview of available software tools in the area. Due to progress made in recent years with respect to new algorithms to generate PH distributions and Markovian arrival processes from measured data, the models outlined are useful alternatives to other distributions or stochastic processes used for input modeling. Graduate students and researchers in applied probability, operations research and computer science along with practitioners using simulation or analytical models for performance analysis and capacity planning will find the unified notation and up-to-date results presented useful. Input modeling is the key step in model based system analysis to adequately describe the load of a system using stochastic models. The goal of input modeling is to find a stochastic model to describe a sequence of measurements from a real system...

  1. Decoding and modelling of time series count data using Poisson hidden Markov model and Markov ordinal logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Tunny; Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Anandan, Shalini; George, Sebastian; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I

    2018-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are stochastic models in which the observations are assumed to follow a mixture distribution, but the parameters of the components are governed by a Markov chain which is unobservable. The issues related to the estimation of Poisson-hidden Markov models in which the observations are coming from mixture of Poisson distributions and the parameters of the component Poisson distributions are governed by an m-state Markov chain with an unknown transition probability matrix are explained here. These methods were applied to the data on Vibrio cholerae counts reported every month for 11-year span at Christian Medical College, Vellore, India. Using Viterbi algorithm, the best estimate of the state sequence was obtained and hence the transition probability matrix. The mean passage time between the states were estimated. The 95% confidence interval for the mean passage time was estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. The three hidden states of the estimated Markov chain are labelled as 'Low', 'Moderate' and 'High' with the mean counts of 1.4, 6.6 and 20.2 and the estimated average duration of stay of 3, 3 and 4 months, respectively. Environmental risk factors were studied using Markov ordinal logistic regression analysis. No significant association was found between disease severity levels and climate components.

  2. Zefinha - the name of abandonment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Debora

    2015-09-01

    Zefinha has been living in a forensic hospital for the last 39 years. She is the longest female inhabitant surviving under compulsory psychiatric treatment in Brazil. This paper discusses how the ethical rule of anonymity might be revised in research concerning a unique case involving severe violations of human rights. My argument is that there are cases in which disclosing the names of research participants protects their interests and rights.

  3. Maximally reliable Markov chains under energy constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escola, Sean; Eisele, Michael; Miller, Kenneth; Paninski, Liam

    2009-07-01

    Signal-to-noise ratios in physical systems can be significantly degraded if the outputs of the systems are highly variable. Biological processes for which highly stereotyped signal generations are necessary features appear to have reduced their signal variabilities by employing multiple processing steps. To better understand why this multistep cascade structure might be desirable, we prove that the reliability of a signal generated by a multistate system with no memory (i.e., a Markov chain) is maximal if and only if the system topology is such that the process steps irreversibly through each state, with transition rates chosen such that an equal fraction of the total signal is generated in each state. Furthermore, our result indicates that by increasing the number of states, it is possible to arbitrarily increase the reliability of the system. In a physical system, however, an energy cost is associated with maintaining irreversible transitions, and this cost increases with the number of such transitions (i.e., the number of states). Thus, an infinite-length chain, which would be perfectly reliable, is infeasible. To model the effects of energy demands on the maximally reliable solution, we numerically optimize the topology under two distinct energy functions that penalize either irreversible transitions or incommunicability between states, respectively. In both cases, the solutions are essentially irreversible linear chains, but with upper bounds on the number of states set by the amount of available energy. We therefore conclude that a physical system for which signal reliability is important should employ a linear architecture, with the number of states (and thus the reliability) determined by the intrinsic energy constraints of the system.

  4. Artificial emotional model based on finite state machine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MENG Qing-mei; WU Wei-guo

    2008-01-01

    According to the basic emotional theory, the artificial emotional model based on the finite state machine(FSM) was presented. In finite state machine model of emotion, the emotional space included the basic emotional space and the multiple emotional spaces. The emotion-switching diagram was defined and transition function was developed using Markov chain and linear interpolation algorithm. The simulation model was built using Stateflow toolbox and Simulink toolbox based on the Matlab platform.And the model included three subsystems: the input one, the emotion one and the behavior one. In the emotional subsystem, the responses of different personalities to the external stimuli were described by defining personal space. This model takes states from an emotional space and updates its state depending on its current state and a state of its input (also a state-emotion). The simulation model realizes the process of switching the emotion from the neutral state to other basic emotions. The simulation result is proved to correspond to emotion-switching law of human beings.

  5. 27 CFR 5.34 - Brand names.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Brand names. 5.34 Section... Spirits § 5.34 Brand names. (a) Misleading brand names. No label shall contain any brand name, which... officer finds that such brand name (when appropriately qualified if required) conveys no erroneous...

  6. 27 CFR 7.23 - Brand names.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Brand names. 7.23 Section... Beverages § 7.23 Brand names. (a) General. The product shall bear a brand name, except that if not sold under a brand name, then the name of the person required to appear on the brand label shall be deemed a...

  7. In the Name of Love

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojesen, Anders; Muhr, Sara Louise

    Accepted Abstract: Most current Human Resource Management discourse stresses coaching, developing and empowering in order to do ‘good' and care for the ‘well-being' of the employees (Steyaert & Janssens, 1999). Legge (1999) symbolizes HRM discourse by the employee being a family member subordinated...... for mankind - in the name of care for the other", and Zizek (2003:23) in a similar matter when he points out that "the ultimate source of evil is compassion itself". Butler (2005) refers to ethical violence when she describes the rigid ethical standards set out to be what Kaulingfreks calls the ‘keeper...

  8. A Hidden Markov Model for Analysis of Frontline Veterinary Data for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Colin; Sawford, Kate; Gunawardana, Walimunige S. N.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Nathoo, Farouk; Stephen, Craig

    2011-01-01

    Surveillance systems tracking health patterns in animals have potential for early warning of infectious disease in humans, yet there are many challenges that remain before this can be realized. Specifically, there remains the challenge of detecting early warning signals for diseases that are not known or are not part of routine surveillance for named diseases. This paper reports on the development of a hidden Markov model for analysis of frontline veterinary sentinel surveillance data from Sri Lanka. Field veterinarians collected data on syndromes and diagnoses using mobile phones. A model for submission patterns accounts for both sentinel-related and disease-related variability. Models for commonly reported cattle diagnoses were estimated separately. Region-specific weekly average prevalence was estimated for each diagnoses and partitioned into normal and abnormal periods. Visualization of state probabilities was used to indicate areas and times of unusual disease prevalence. The analysis suggests that hidden Markov modelling is a useful approach for surveillance datasets from novel populations and/or having little historical baselines. PMID:21949763

  9. Predicting Urban Medical Services Demand in China: An Improved Grey Markov Chain Model by Taylor Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jinli; Jiao, Feng; Zhang, Qishan; Lin, Zhibin

    2017-08-06

    The sharp increase of the aging population has raised the pressure on the current limited medical resources in China. To better allocate resources, a more accurate prediction on medical service demand is very urgently needed. This study aims to improve the prediction on medical services demand in China. To achieve this aim, the study combines Taylor Approximation into the Grey Markov Chain model, and develops a new model named Taylor-Markov Chain GM (1,1) (T-MCGM (1,1)). The new model has been tested by adopting the historical data, which includes the medical service on treatment of diabetes, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease from 1997 to 2015 in China. The model provides a predication on medical service demand of these three types of disease up to 2022. The results reveal an enormous growth of urban medical service demand in the future. The findings provide practical implications for the Health Administrative Department to allocate medical resources, and help hospitals to manage investments on medical facilities.

  10. Estimating the ratios of the stationary distribution values for Markov chains modeling evolutionary algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitavskiy, Boris; Cannings, Chris

    2009-01-01

    The evolutionary algorithm stochastic process is well-known to be Markovian. These have been under investigation in much of the theoretical evolutionary computing research. When the mutation rate is positive, the Markov chain modeling of an evolutionary algorithm is irreducible and, therefore, has a unique stationary distribution. Rather little is known about the stationary distribution. In fact, the only quantitative facts established so far tell us that the stationary distributions of Markov chains modeling evolutionary algorithms concentrate on uniform populations (i.e., those populations consisting of a repeated copy of the same individual). At the same time, knowing the stationary distribution may provide some information about the expected time it takes for the algorithm to reach a certain solution, assessment of the biases due to recombination and selection, and is of importance in population genetics to assess what is called a "genetic load" (see the introduction for more details). In the recent joint works of the first author, some bounds have been established on the rates at which the stationary distribution concentrates on the uniform populations. The primary tool used in these papers is the "quotient construction" method. It turns out that the quotient construction method can be exploited to derive much more informative bounds on ratios of the stationary distribution values of various subsets of the state space. In fact, some of the bounds obtained in the current work are expressed in terms of the parameters involved in all the three main stages of an evolutionary algorithm: namely, selection, recombination, and mutation.

  11. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Valor

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.

  12. Prediction of inspection intervals using the Markov analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rea, R.; Arellano, J.

    2005-01-01

    To solve the unmanageable number of states of Markov of systems that have a great number of components, it is intends a modification to the method of Markov, denominated Markov truncated analysis, in which is assumed that it is worthless the dependence among faults of components. With it the number of states is increased in a lineal way (not exponential) with the number of components of the system, simplifying the analysis vastly. As example, the proposed method was applied to the system HPCS of the CLV considering its 18 main components. It thinks about that each component can take three states: operational, with hidden fault and with revealed fault. Additionally, it takes into account the configuration of the system HPCS by means of a block diagram of dependability to estimate their unavailability at level system. The results of the model here proposed are compared with other methods and approaches used to simplify the Markov analysis. It also intends the modification of the intervals of inspection of three components of the system HPCS. This finishes with base in the developed Markov model and in the maximum time allowed by the code ASME (NUREG-1482) to inspect components of systems that are in reservation in nuclear power plants. (Author)

  13. Benchmarking of a Markov multizone model of contaminant transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Rachael M; Nicas, Mark

    2014-10-01

    A Markov chain model previously applied to the simulation of advection and diffusion process of gaseous contaminants is extended to three-dimensional transport of particulates in indoor environments. The model framework and assumptions are described. The performance of the Markov model is benchmarked against simple conventional models of contaminant transport. The Markov model is able to replicate elutriation predictions of particle deposition with distance from a point source, and the stirred settling of respirable particles. Comparisons with turbulent eddy diffusion models indicate that the Markov model exhibits numerical diffusion in the first seconds after release, but over time accurately predicts mean lateral dispersion. The Markov model exhibits some instability with grid length aspect when turbulence is incorporated by way of the turbulent diffusion coefficient, and advection is present. However, the magnitude of prediction error may be tolerable for some applications and can be avoided by incorporating turbulence by way of fluctuating velocity (e.g. turbulence intensity). © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

  14. [Succession caused by beaver (Castor fiber L.) life activity: II. A refined Markov model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logofet; Evstigneev, O I; Aleinikov, A A; Morozova, A O

    2015-01-01

    The refined Markov model of cyclic zoogenic successions caused by beaver (Castor fiber L.) life activity represents a discrete chain of the following six states: flooded forest, swamped forest, pond, grassy swamp, shrubby swamp, and wet forest, which correspond to certain stages of succession. Those stages are defined, and a conceptual scheme of probable transitions between them for one time step is constructed from the knowledge of beaver behaviour in small river floodplains of "Bryanskii Les" Reserve. We calibrated the corresponding matrix of transition probabilities according to the optimization principle: minimizing differences between the model outcome and reality; the model generates a distribution of relative areas corresponding to the stages of succession, that has to be compared to those gained from case studies in the Reserve during 2002-2006. The time step is chosen to equal 2 years, and the first-step data in the sum of differences are given various weights, w (between 0 and 1). The value of w = 0.2 is selected due to its optimality and for some additional reasons. By the formulae of finite homogeneous Markov chain theory, we obtained the main results of the calibrated model, namely, a steady-state distribution of stage areas, indexes of cyclicity, and the mean durations (M(j)) of succession stages. The results of calibration give an objective quantitative nature to the expert knowledge of the course of succession and get a proper interpretation. The 2010 data, which are not involved in the calibration procedure, enabled assessing the quality of prediction by the homogeneous model in short-term (from the 2006 situation): the error of model area distribution relative to the distribution observed in 2010 falls into the range of 9-17%, the best prognosis being given by the least optimal matrices (rejected values of w). This indicates a formally heterogeneous nature of succession processes in time. Thus, the refined version of the homogeneous Markov chain

  15. Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)], E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Velazquez, J.C. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico); Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 La Habana (Cuba); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)

    2009-09-15

    A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.

  16. Influence of credit scoring on the dynamics of Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galina, Timofeeva

    2015-11-01

    Markov processes are widely used to model the dynamics of a credit portfolio and forecast the portfolio risk and profitability. In the Markov chain model the loan portfolio is divided into several groups with different quality, which determined by presence of indebtedness and its terms. It is proposed that dynamics of portfolio shares is described by a multistage controlled system. The article outlines mathematical formalization of controls which reflect the actions of the bank's management in order to improve the loan portfolio quality. The most important control is the organization of approval procedure of loan applications. The credit scoring is studied as a control affecting to the dynamic system. Different formalizations of "good" and "bad" consumers are proposed in connection with the Markov chain model.

  17. Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caleyo, F.; Velazquez, J.C.; Valor, A.; Hallen, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.

  18. Markov chain solution of photon multiple scattering through turbid slabs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ying; Northrop, William F; Li, Xuesong

    2016-11-14

    This work introduces a Markov Chain solution to model photon multiple scattering through turbid slabs via anisotropic scattering process, i.e., Mie scattering. Results show that the proposed Markov Chain model agree with commonly used Monte Carlo simulation for various mediums such as medium with non-uniform phase functions and absorbing medium. The proposed Markov Chain solution method successfully converts the complex multiple scattering problem with practical phase functions into a matrix form and solves transmitted/reflected photon angular distributions by matrix multiplications. Such characteristics would potentially allow practical inversions by matrix manipulation or stochastic algorithms where widely applied stochastic methods such as Monte Carlo simulations usually fail, and thus enable practical diagnostics reconstructions such as medical diagnosis, spray analysis, and atmosphere sciences.

  19. The spectral method and ergodic theorems for general Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagaev, S V

    2015-01-01

    We study the ergodic properties of Markov chains with an arbitrary state space and prove a geometric ergodic theorem. The method of the proof is new: it may be described as an operator method. Our main result is an ergodic theorem for Harris-Markov chains in the case when the return time to some fixed set has finite expectation. Our conditions for the transition function are more general than those used by Athreya-Ney and Nummelin. Unlike them, we impose restrictions not on the original transition function but on the transition function of an embedded Markov chain constructed from the return times to the fixed set mentioned above. The proof uses the spectral theory of linear operators on a Banach space

  20. An Application of Graph Theory in Markov Chains Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Skalny

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents reliability analysis which was realized for an industrial company. The aim of the paper is to present the usage of discrete time Markov chains and the flow in network approach. Discrete Markov chains a well-known method of stochastic modelling describes the issue. The method is suitable for many systems occurring in practice where we can easily distinguish various amount of states. Markov chains are used to describe transitions between the states of the process. The industrial process is described as a graph network. The maximal flow in the network corresponds to the production. The Ford-Fulkerson algorithm is used to quantify the production for each state. The combination of both methods are utilized to quantify the expected value of the amount of manufactured products for the given time period.

  1. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  2. Prediction of inspection intervals using the Markov analysis; Prediccion de intervalos de inspeccion utilizando analisis de Markov

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rea, R.; Arellano, J. [IIE, Calle Reforma 113, Col. Palmira, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)]. e-mail: rrea@iie.org.mx

    2005-07-01

    To solve the unmanageable number of states of Markov of systems that have a great number of components, it is intends a modification to the method of Markov, denominated Markov truncated analysis, in which is assumed that it is worthless the dependence among faults of components. With it the number of states is increased in a lineal way (not exponential) with the number of components of the system, simplifying the analysis vastly. As example, the proposed method was applied to the system HPCS of the CLV considering its 18 main components. It thinks about that each component can take three states: operational, with hidden fault and with revealed fault. Additionally, it takes into account the configuration of the system HPCS by means of a block diagram of dependability to estimate their unavailability at level system. The results of the model here proposed are compared with other methods and approaches used to simplify the Markov analysis. It also intends the modification of the intervals of inspection of three components of the system HPCS. This finishes with base in the developed Markov model and in the maximum time allowed by the code ASME (NUREG-1482) to inspect components of systems that are in reservation in nuclear power plants. (Author)

  3. Analyzing the profit-loss sharing contracts with Markov model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine how to use first order Markov chain to build a reliable monitoring system for the profit-loss sharing based contracts (PLS as the mode of financing contracts in Islamic bank with censored continuous-time observations. The paper adopts the longitudinal analysis with the first order Markov chain framework. Laplace transform was used with homogenous continuous time assumption, from discretized generator matrix, to generate the transition matrix. Various metrics, i.e.: eigenvalue and eigenvector were used to test the first order Markov chain assumption. Cox semi parametric model was used also to analyze the momentum and waiting time effect as non-Markov behavior. The result shows that first order Markov chain is powerful as a monitoring tool for Islamic banks. We find that waiting time negatively affected present rating downgrade (upgrade significantly. Likewise, momentum covariate showed negative effect. Finally, the result confirms that different origin rating have different movement behavior. The paper explores the potential of Markov chain framework as a risk management tool for Islamic banks. It provides valuable insight and integrative model for banks to manage their borrower accounts. This model can be developed to be a powerful early warning system to identify which borrower needs to be monitored intensively. Ultimately, this model could potentially increase the efficiency, productivity and competitiveness of Islamic banks in Indonesia. The analysis used only rating data. Further study should be able to give additional information about the determinant factors of rating movement of the borrowers by incorporating various factors such as contract-related factors, bank-related factors, borrower-related factors and macroeconomic factors.

  4. Markov chain sampling of the O(n) loop models on the infinite plane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdeiro, Victor

    2017-07-01

    A numerical method was recently proposed in Herdeiro and Doyon [Phys. Rev. E 94, 043322 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevE.94.043322] showing a precise sampling of the infinite plane two-dimensional critical Ising model for finite lattice subsections. The present note extends the method to a larger class of models, namely the O(n) loop gas models for n ∈(1 ,2 ] . We argue that even though the Gibbs measure is nonlocal, it is factorizable on finite subsections when sufficient information on the loops touching the boundaries is stored. Our results attempt to show that provided an efficient Markov chain mixing algorithm and an improved discrete lattice dilation procedure the planar limit of the O(n) models can be numerically studied with efficiency similar to the Ising case. This confirms that scale invariance is the only requirement for the present numerical method to work.

  5. Bi-dimension decomposed hidden Markov models for multi-person activity recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei-dong ZHANG; Feng CHEN; Wen-li XU

    2009-01-01

    We present a novel model for recognizing long-term complex activities involving multiple persons. The proposed model, named 'decomposed hidden Markov model' (DHMM), combines spatial decomposition and hierarchical abstraction to capture multi-modal, long-term dependent and multi-scale characteristics of activities. Decomposition in space and time offers conceptual advantages of compaction and clarity, and greatly reduces the size of state space as well as the number of parameters.DHMMs are efficient even when the number of persons is variable. We also introduce an efficient approximation algorithm for inference and parameter estimation. Experiments on multi-person activities and multi-modal individual activities demonstrate that DHMMs are more efficient and reliable than familiar models, such as coupled HMMs, hierarchical HMMs, and multi-observation HMMs.

  6. Application of Hidden Markov Models in Biomolecular Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Saurabh; Shamsi, Zahra; Moffett, Alexander S; Selvam, Balaji; Shukla, Diwakar

    2017-01-01

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide a framework to analyze large trajectories of biomolecular simulation datasets. HMMs decompose the conformational space of a biological molecule into finite number of states that interconvert among each other with certain rates. HMMs simplify long timescale trajectories for human comprehension, and allow comparison of simulations with experimental data. In this chapter, we provide an overview of building HMMs for analyzing bimolecular simulation datasets. We demonstrate the procedure for building a Hidden Markov model for Met-enkephalin peptide simulation dataset and compare the timescales of the process.

  7. Hidden Markov processes theory and applications to biology

    CERN Document Server

    Vidyasagar, M

    2014-01-01

    This book explores important aspects of Markov and hidden Markov processes and the applications of these ideas to various problems in computational biology. The book starts from first principles, so that no previous knowledge of probability is necessary. However, the work is rigorous and mathematical, making it useful to engineers and mathematicians, even those not interested in biological applications. A range of exercises is provided, including drills to familiarize the reader with concepts and more advanced problems that require deep thinking about the theory. Biological applications are t

  8. Transportation and concentration inequalities for bifurcating Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penda, S. Valère Bitseki; Escobar-Bach, Mikael; Guillin, Arnaud

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the transportation inequality for bifurcating Markov chains which are a class of processes indexed by a regular binary tree. Fitting well models like cell growth when each individual gives birth to exactly two offsprings, we use transportation inequalities to provide useful...... concentration inequalities.We also study deviation inequalities for the empirical means under relaxed assumptions on the Wasserstein contraction for the Markov kernels. Applications to bifurcating nonlinear autoregressive processes are considered for point-wise estimates of the non-linear autoregressive...

  9. Martingales and Markov chains solved exercises and elements of theory

    CERN Document Server

    Baldi, Paolo; Priouret, Pierre

    2002-01-01

    CONDITIONAL EXPECTATIONSIntroductionDefinition and First PropertiesConditional Expectations and Conditional LawsExercisesSolutionsSTOCHASTIC PROCESSESGeneral FactsStopping TimesExercisesSolutionsMARTINGALESFirst DefinitionsFirst PropertiesThe Stopping TheoremMaximal InequalitiesSquare Integral MartingalesConvergence TheoremsRegular MartingalesExercisesProblemsSolutionsMARKOV CHAINSTransition Matrices, Markov ChainsConstruction and ExistenceComputations on the Canonical ChainPotential OperatorsPassage ProblemsRecurrence, TransienceRecurrent Irreducible ChainsPeriodicityExercisesProblemsSolution

  10. Dynamic modeling of presence of occupants using inhomogeneous Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Iversen, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    on time of day, and by use of a filter of the observations it is able to capture per-employee sequence dynamics. Simulations using this method are compared with simulations using homogeneous Markov chains and show far better ability to reproduce key properties of the data. The method is based...... on inhomogeneous Markov chains with where the transition probabilities are estimated using generalized linear models with polynomials, B-splines, and a filter of passed observations as inputs. For treating the dispersion of the data series, a hierarchical model structure is used where one model is for low presence...

  11. Markov chain analysis of single spin flip Ising simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennecke, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Markov processes defined by random and loop-based schemes for single spin flip attempts in Monte Carlo simulations of the 2D Ising model are investigated, by explicitly constructing their transition matrices. Their analysis reveals that loops over all lattice sites using a Metropolis-type single spin flip probability often do not define ergodic Markov chains, and have distorted dynamical properties even if they are ergodic. The transition matrices also enable a comparison of the dynamics of random versus loop spin selection and Glauber versus Metropolis probabilities

  12. Hierarchical Multiple Markov Chain Model for Unsupervised Texture Segmentation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Scarpa, G.; Gaetano, R.; Haindl, Michal; Zerubia, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 8 (2009), s. 1830-1843 ISSN 1057-7149 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0593 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 507752 - MUSCLE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Classification * texture analysis * segmentation * hierarchical image models * Markov process Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 2.848, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/RO/haindl-hierarchical multiple markov chain model for unsupervised texture segmentation.pdf

  13. Quantum Markov processes and applications in many-body systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temme, P. K.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis is concerned with the investigation of quantum as well as classical Markov processes and their application in the field of strongly correlated many-body systems. A Markov process is a special kind of stochastic process, which is determined by an evolution that is independent of its history and only depends on the current state of the system. The application of Markov processes has a long history in the field of statistical mechanics and classical many-body theory. Not only are Markov processes used to describe the dynamics of stochastic systems, but they predominantly also serve as a practical method that allows for the computation of fundamental properties of complex many-body systems by means of probabilistic algorithms. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the properties of quantum Markov processes, i.e. Markov processes taking place in a quantum mechanical state space, and to gain a better insight into complex many-body systems by means thereof. Moreover, we formulate a novel quantum algorithm which allows for the computation of the thermal and ground states of quantum many-body systems. After a brief introduction to quantum Markov processes we turn to an investigation of their convergence properties. We find bounds on the convergence rate of the quantum process by generalizing geometric bounds found for classical processes. We generalize a distance measure that serves as the basis for our investigations, the chi-square divergence, to non-commuting probability spaces. This divergence allows for a convenient generalization of the detailed balance condition to quantum processes. We then devise the quantum algorithm that can be seen as the natural generalization of the ubiquitous Metropolis algorithm to simulate quantum many-body Hamiltonians. By this we intend to provide further evidence, that a quantum computer can serve as a fully-fledged quantum simulator, which is not only capable of describing the dynamical evolution of quantum systems, but

  14. Bisimulation on Markov Processes over Arbitrary Measurable Spaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacci, Giorgio; Bacci, Giovanni; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a notion of bisimulation on labelled Markov Processes over generic measurable spaces in terms of arbitrary binary relations. Our notion of bisimulation is proven to coincide with the coalgebraic definition of Aczel and Mendler in terms of the Giry functor, which associates with a mea......We introduce a notion of bisimulation on labelled Markov Processes over generic measurable spaces in terms of arbitrary binary relations. Our notion of bisimulation is proven to coincide with the coalgebraic definition of Aczel and Mendler in terms of the Giry functor, which associates...

  15. Detecting Faults By Use Of Hidden Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Padhraic J.

    1995-01-01

    Frequency of false alarms reduced. Faults in complicated dynamic system (e.g., antenna-aiming system, telecommunication network, or human heart) detected automatically by method of automated, continuous monitoring. Obtains time-series data by sampling multiple sensor outputs at discrete intervals of t and processes data via algorithm determining whether system in normal or faulty state. Algorithm implements, among other things, hidden first-order temporal Markov model of states of system. Mathematical model of dynamics of system not needed. Present method is "prior" method mentioned in "Improved Hidden-Markov-Model Method of Detecting Faults" (NPO-18982).

  16. On a Markov chain roulette-type game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shehawey, M A; El-Shreef, Gh A

    2009-01-01

    A Markov chain on non-negative integers which arises in a roulette-type game is discussed. The transition probabilities are p 01 = ρ, p Nj = δ Nj , p i,i+W = q, p i,i-1 = p = 1 - q, 1 ≤ W < N, 0 ≤ ρ ≤ 1, N - W < j ≤ N and i = 1, 2, ..., N - W. Using formulae for the determinant of a partitioned matrix, a closed form expression for the solution of the Markov chain roulette-type game is deduced. The present analysis is supported by two mathematical models from tumor growth and war with bargaining

  17. Study on the Evolution of Weights on the Market of Competitive Products using Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mihai Amariei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper aims the application through the Markov Process mode, within the software product WinQSB, Markov chain in the establishment of the development on the market of five brands of athletic shoes.

  18. 27 CFR 4.33 - Brand names.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Brand names. 4.33 Section... THE TREASURY LIQUORS LABELING AND ADVERTISING OF WINE Labeling Requirements for Wine § 4.33 Brand names. (a) General. The product shall bear a brand name, except that if not sold under a brand name...

  19. Name fashion dynamics and social class

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloothooft, G.; Schraagen, M.P.

    2011-01-01

    Modern parents in The Netherlands choose the first names they like for their children. In this decision most follow fashion and as a typical property of fashion, many popular names now have a life cycle of only one generation. Some names show a symmetry between rise and fall of the name, but most

  20. A radiographic anthology of vertebral names

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yochum, T.R.; Hartley, B.; Thomas, D.P.; Guebert, G.M.

    1987-01-01

    A total of 88 such named vertebrae have been extracted from the literature. With so many names from scattered sources, the authors collated them in a single presentation. A description is given and the anatomical and pathogenic reasons for the appearances are considered. A list of conditions associated with each named vertebra accompanies the descriptive paragraph. The named vertebrae are presented in alphabetical order

  1. The explicit form of the rate function for semi-Markov processes and its contractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sughiyama, Yuki; Kobayashi, Testuya J.

    2018-03-01

    We derive the explicit form of the rate function for semi-Markov processes. Here, the ‘random time change trick’ plays an essential role. Also, by exploiting the contraction principle of large deviation theory to the explicit form, we show that the fluctuation theorem (Gallavotti-Cohen symmetry) holds for semi-Markov cases. Furthermore, we elucidate that our rate function is an extension of the level 2.5 rate function for Markov processes to semi-Markov cases.

  2. Feeling-of-knowing for proper names.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izaute, Marie; Chambres, Patrick; Larochelle, Serge

    2002-12-01

    The main objective of the presented study was to study feeling-of-knowing (FOK) in proper name retrieval. Many studies show that FOK can predict performance on a subsequent criterion test. Although feeling-of-knowing studies involve questions about proper names, none make this distinction between proper names and common names. Nevertheless, the specific character of proper names as a unique label referring to a person should allow participants to target precisely the desired verbal label. Our idea here was that the unique character of proper name information should result in more accurate FOK evaluations. In the experiment, participants evaluated feeling-of-knowing for proper and common name descriptions. The study demonstrates that FOK judgments are more accurate for proper names than for common names. The implications of the findings for proper names are briefly discussed in terms of feeling-of-knowing hypotheses.

  3. Berman-Konsowa principle for reversible Markov jump processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hollander, den W.Th.F.; Jansen, S.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we prove a version of the Berman-Konsowa principle for reversible Markov jump processes on Polish spaces. The Berman-Konsowa principle provides a variational formula for the capacity of a pair of disjoint measurable sets. There are two versions, one involving a class of probability

  4. Evaluating The Markov Assumption For Web Usage Mining

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, S.; Pedersen, Torben Bach; Thorhauge, J.

    2003-01-01

    ) model~\\cite{borges99data}. These techniques typically rely on the \\textit{Markov assumption with history depth} $n$, i.e., it is assumed that the next requested page is only dependent on the last $n$ pages visited. This is not always valid, i.e. false browsing patterns may be discovered. However, to our...

  5. Testing the Adequacy of a Semi-Markov Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-17

    classical Brownian motion are two common examples of martingales. Submartingales and supermartingales are two extended classes of martingales. They... movements using Semi-Markov processes,” Tourism Management, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2011, pp. 844–851. [4] Titman, A. C. and Sharples, L. D., “Model

  6. Portfolio Optimization in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Mrinal K.; Goswami, Anindya; Kumar, Suresh K.

    2009-01-01

    We address a portfolio optimization problem in a semi-Markov modulated market. We study both the terminal expected utility optimization on finite time horizon and the risk-sensitive portfolio optimization on finite and infinite time horizon. We obtain optimal portfolios in relevant cases. A numerical procedure is also developed to compute the optimal expected terminal utility for finite horizon problem

  7. A Parallel Solver for Large-Scale Markov Chains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benzi, M.; Tůma, Miroslav

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 41, - (2002), s. 135-153 ISSN 0168-9274 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2030801; GA ČR GA101/00/1035 Keywords : parallel preconditioning * iterative methods * discrete Markov chains * generalized inverses * singular matrices * graph partitioning * AINV * Bi-CGSTAB Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.504, year: 2002

  8. Markov chain model for demersal fish catch analysis in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firdaniza; Gusriani, N.

    2018-03-01

    As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has considerable potential fishery resources. One of the fish resources that has high economic value is demersal fish. Demersal fish is a fish with a habitat in the muddy seabed. Demersal fish scattered throughout the Indonesian seas. Demersal fish production in each Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area (FMA) varies each year. In this paper we have discussed the Markov chain model for demersal fish yield analysis throughout all Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area. Data of demersal fish catch in every FMA in 2005-2014 was obtained from Directorate of Capture Fisheries. From this data a transition probability matrix is determined by the number of transitions from the catch that lie below the median or above the median. The Markov chain model of demersal fish catch data was an ergodic Markov chain model, so that the limiting probability of the Markov chain model can be determined. The predictive value of demersal fishing yields was obtained by calculating the combination of limiting probability with average catch results below the median and above the median. The results showed that for 2018 and long-term demersal fishing results in most of FMA were below the median value.

  9. Shape Modelling Using Markov Random Field Restoration of Point Correspondences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Hilger, Klaus Baggesen

    2003-01-01

    A method for building statistical point distribution models is proposed. The novelty in this paper is the adaption of Markov random field regularization of the correspondence field over the set of shapes. The new approach leads to a generative model that produces highly homogeneous polygonized sh...

  10. On a saddlepoint approximation to the Markov binomial distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jens Ledet

    A nonstandard saddlepoint approximation to the distribution of a sum of Markov dependent trials is introduced. The relative error of the approximation is studied, not only for the number of summands tending to infinity, but also for the parameter approaching the boundary of its definition range...

  11. Envelopes of Sets of Measures, Tightness, and Markov Control Processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Hernandez, J.; Hernandez-Lerma, O.

    1999-01-01

    We introduce upper and lower envelopes for sets of measures on an arbitrary topological space, which are then used to give a tightness criterion. These concepts are applied to show the existence of optimal policies for a class of Markov control processes

  12. A Constraint Model for Constrained Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp

    2009-01-01

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we extend HMMs with constraints and show how the familiar Viterbi algorithm can be generalized, based on constraint solving ...

  13. The How and Why of Interactive Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.; de Boer, F.S; Bonsangue, S.H.; Leuschel, M

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the model of interactive Markov chains (IMCs, for short), an extension of labelled transition systems with exponentially delayed transitions. We show that IMCs are closed under parallel composition and hiding, and show how IMCs can be compositionally aggregated prior to analysis

  14. Performance criteria for graph clustering and Markov cluster experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Dongen

    2000-01-01

    textabstractIn~[1] a cluster algorithm for graphs was introduced called the Markov cluster algorithm or MCL~algorithm. The algorithm is based on simulation of (stochastic) flow in graphs by means of alternation of two operators, expansion and inflation. The results in~[2] establish an intrinsic

  15. Estimation of the workload correlation in a Markov fluid queue

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaynar, B.; Mandjes, M.R.H.

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers a Markov fluid queue, focusing on the correlation function of the stationary workload process. A simulation-based computation technique is proposed, which relies on a coupling idea. Then an upper bound on the variance of the resulting estimator is given, which reveals how the

  16. Cascade probabilistic function and the Markov's processes. Chapter 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    In the Chapter 1 the physical and mathematical descriptions of radiation processes are carried out. The relation of the cascade probabilistic functions (CPF) for electrons, protons, alpha-particles and ions with Markov's chain is shown. The algorithms for CPF calculation with accounting energy losses are given

  17. Indefinite metric, quantum axiomatics, and the Markov property

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brownell, F.H.

    1978-01-01

    In answer to a remark of Jauch, a set of axioms for an 'indefinite metric' formulation of quantum electro-dynamics is presented, and the connection with orthocomplementation noted. Here a strict version of the Markov property apparently fails, leading to a novel interpretation. (Auth.)

  18. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 1. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya. J C Joshi Tankeshwar Kumar Sunita Srivastava Divya Sachdeva. Volume 126 Issue 1 February 2017 ...

  19. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  20. Social security as Markov equilibrium in OLG models: A note

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gonzalez Eiras, Martin

    2011-01-01

    I refine and extend the Markov perfect equilibrium of the social security policy game in Forni (2005) for the special case of logarithmic utility. Under the restriction that the policy function be continuous, instead of differentiable, the equilibrium is globally well defined and its dynamics...

  1. Efficient Approximation of Optimal Control for Markov Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fearnley, John; Rabe, Markus; Schewe, Sven

    2011-01-01

    We study the time-bounded reachability problem for continuous-time Markov decision processes (CTMDPs) and games (CTMGs). Existing techniques for this problem use discretisation techniques to break time into discrete intervals, and optimal control is approximated for each interval separately...

  2. The deviation matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coolen-Schrijner, P.; van Doorn, E.A.

    2001-01-01

    The deviation matrix of an ergodic, continuous-time Markov chain with transition probability matrix $P(.)$ and ergodic matrix $\\Pi$ is the matrix $D \\equiv \\int_0^{\\infty} (P(t)-\\Pi)dt$. We give conditions for $D$ to exist and discuss properties and a representation of $D$. The deviation matrix of a

  3. The deviation matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coolen-Schrijner, Pauline; van Doorn, Erik A.

    2002-01-01

    he deviation matrix of an ergodic, continuous-time Markov chain with transition probability matrix $P(.)$ and ergodic matrix $\\Pi$ is the matrix $D \\equiv \\int_0^{\\infty} (P(t)-\\Pi)dt$. We give conditions for $D$ to exist and discuss properties and a representation of $D$. The deviation matrix of a

  4. Performability assessment by model checking of Markov reward models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baier, Christel; Cloth, L.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes efficient procedures for model checking Markov reward models, that allow us to evaluate, among others, the performability of computer-communication systems. We present the logic CSRL (Continuous Stochastic Reward Logic) to specify performability measures. It provides flexibility

  5. A Markov Model for Commen-Cause Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Platz, Ole

    1984-01-01

    A continuous time four-state Markov chain is shown to cover several of the models that have been used for describing dependencies between failures of components in redundant systems. Among these are the models derived by Marshall and Olkin and by Freund and models for one-out-of-three and two...

  6. Exact goodness-of-fit tests for Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besag, J; Mondal, D

    2013-06-01

    Goodness-of-fit tests are useful in assessing whether a statistical model is consistent with available data. However, the usual χ² asymptotics often fail, either because of the paucity of the data or because a nonstandard test statistic is of interest. In this article, we describe exact goodness-of-fit tests for first- and higher order Markov chains, with particular attention given to time-reversible ones. The tests are obtained by conditioning on the sufficient statistics for the transition probabilities and are implemented by simple Monte Carlo sampling or by Markov chain Monte Carlo. They apply both to single and to multiple sequences and allow a free choice of test statistic. Three examples are given. The first concerns multiple sequences of dry and wet January days for the years 1948-1983 at Snoqualmie Falls, Washington State, and suggests that standard analysis may be misleading. The second one is for a four-state DNA sequence and lends support to the original conclusion that a second-order Markov chain provides an adequate fit to the data. The last one is six-state atomistic data arising in molecular conformational dynamics simulation of solvated alanine dipeptide and points to strong evidence against a first-order reversible Markov chain at 6 picosecond time steps. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Some remarks about the thermodynamics of discrete finite Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siboni, S. [Trento Univ. (Italy). Facolta` di Ingegneria, Dip. di Ingegneria dei Materiali

    1998-08-01

    The Author propose a simple way to define a Hamiltonian for aperiodic Markov chains and to apply these chains in a thermodynamical context. The basic thermodynamic functions are correspondingly calculated. A quite intriguing and nontrivial application to stochastic automata is also pointed out.

  8. Complete Axiomatization for the Bisimilarity Distance on Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacci, Giorgio; Bacci, Giovanni; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we propose a complete axiomatization of the bisimilarity distance of Desharnais et al. for the class of finite labelled Markov chains. Our axiomatization is given in the style of a quantitative extension of equational logic recently proposed by Mardare, Panangaden, and Plotkin (LICS...

  9. Adiabatic condition and the quantum hitting time of Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krovi, Hari; Ozols, Maris; Roland, Jeremie

    2010-01-01

    We present an adiabatic quantum algorithm for the abstract problem of searching marked vertices in a graph, or spatial search. Given a random walk (or Markov chain) P on a graph with a set of unknown marked vertices, one can define a related absorbing walk P ' where outgoing transitions from marked vertices are replaced by self-loops. We build a Hamiltonian H(s) from the interpolated Markov chain P(s)=(1-s)P+sP ' and use it in an adiabatic quantum algorithm to drive an initial superposition over all vertices to a superposition over marked vertices. The adiabatic condition implies that, for any reversible Markov chain and any set of marked vertices, the running time of the adiabatic algorithm is given by the square root of the classical hitting time. This algorithm therefore demonstrates a novel connection between the adiabatic condition and the classical notion of hitting time of a random walk. It also significantly extends the scope of previous quantum algorithms for this problem, which could only obtain a full quadratic speedup for state-transitive reversible Markov chains with a unique marked vertex.

  10. Exploring Mass Perception with Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Andrew L.; Ross, Michael G.

    2009-01-01

    Several previous studies have examined the ability to judge the relative mass of objects in idealized collisions. With a newly developed technique of psychological Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (A. N. Sanborn & T. L. Griffiths, 2008), this work explores participants; perceptions of different collision mass ratios. The results reveal…

  11. Model checking conditional CSL for continuous-time Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Yang; Xu, Ming; Zhan, Naijun

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the model-checking problem of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with respect to conditional logic. To the end, we extend Continuous Stochastic Logic introduced in Aziz et al. (2000) [1] to Conditional Continuous Stochastic Logic (CCSL) by introducing a conditional...

  12. Markov chain aggregation for agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Banisch, Sven

    2016-01-01

    This self-contained text develops a Markov chain approach that makes the rigorous analysis of a class of microscopic models that specify the dynamics of complex systems at the individual level possible. It presents a general framework of aggregation in agent-based and related computational models, one which makes use of lumpability and information theory in order to link the micro and macro levels of observation. The starting point is a microscopic Markov chain description of the dynamical process in complete correspondence with the dynamical behavior of the agent-based model (ABM), which is obtained by considering the set of all possible agent configurations as the state space of a huge Markov chain. An explicit formal representation of a resulting “micro-chain” including microscopic transition rates is derived for a class of models by using the random mapping representation of a Markov process. The type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic part of the model, which defines the upd...

  13. Power plant reliability calculation with Markov chain models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senegacnik, A.; Tuma, M.

    1998-01-01

    In the paper power plant operation is modelled using continuous time Markov chains with discrete state space. The model is used to compute the power plant reliability and the importance and influence of individual states, as well as the transition probabilities between states. For comparison the model is fitted to data for coal and nuclear power plants recorded over several years. (orig.) [de

  14. On the Metric-based Approximate Minimization of Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacci, Giovanni; Bacci, Giorgio; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we address the approximate minimization problem of Markov Chains (MCs) from a behavioral metric-based perspective. Specifically, given a finite MC and a positive integer k, we are looking for an MC with at most k states having minimal distance to the original. The metric considered...

  15. Reservoir Modeling Combining Geostatistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zunino, Andrea; Lange, Katrine; Melnikova, Yulia

    2014-01-01

    We present a study on the inversion of seismic reflection data generated from a synthetic reservoir model. Our aim is to invert directly for rock facies and porosity of the target reservoir zone. We solve this inverse problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method to handle the nonlinear...

  16. Students' Progress throughout Examination Process as a Markov Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavatý, Robert; Dömeová, Ludmila

    2014-01-01

    The paper is focused on students of Mathematical methods in economics at the Czech university of life sciences (CULS) in Prague. The idea is to create a model of students' progress throughout the whole course using the Markov chain approach. Each student has to go through various stages of the course requirements where his success depends on the…

  17. Markov chains with quasitoeplitz transition matrix: first zero hitting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander M. Dukhovny

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper continues the investigation of Markov Chains with a quasitoeplitz transition matrix. Generating functions of first zero hitting probabilities and mean times are found by the solution of special Riemann boundary value problems on the unit circle. Duality is discussed.

  18. On the Total Variation Distance of Semi-Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacci, Giorgio; Bacci, Giovanni; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2015-01-01

    Semi-Markov chains (SMCs) are continuous-time probabilistic transition systems where the residence time on states is governed by generic distributions on the positive real line. This paper shows the tight relation between the total variation distance on SMCs and their model checking problem over...

  19. On the Metric-Based Approximate Minimization of Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacci, Giovanni; Bacci, Giorgio; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2017-01-01

    We address the behavioral metric-based approximate minimization problem of Markov Chains (MCs), i.e., given a finite MC and a positive integer k, we are interested in finding a k-state MC of minimal distance to the original. By considering as metric the bisimilarity distance of Desharnais at al...

  20. Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems. Markov models are useful in treating dependencies between components. The present paper shows how the adjoint Monte Carlo method for the continuous time Markov process can be derived from the method for the discrete-time Markov process by a limiting process. The straightforward extensions to the treatment of mean unavailability (over a time interval) are given. System unavailabilities can also be estimated; this is done by making the system failed states absorbing, and not permitting repair from them. A forward Monte Carlo method is presented in which the weighting functions are related to the adjoint function. In particular, if the exact adjoint function is known then weighting factors can be constructed such that the exact answer can be obtained with a single Monte Carlo trial. Of course, if the exact adjoint function is known, there is no need to perform the Monte Carlo calculation. However, the formulation is useful since it gives insight into choices of the weight factors which will reduce the variance of the estimator

  1. Book Review: "Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction using R. by Walter Zucchini and Iain L. MacDonald. Chapman & Hall (CRC Press), 2009. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v10i1.61717 · AJOL African Journals Online.

  2. K­MEANS CLUSTERING FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perrone, M.P.; Connell, S.D.

    2004-01-01

    An unsupervised k­means clustering algorithm for hidden Markov models is described and applied to the task of generating subclass models for individual handwritten character classes. The algorithm is compared to a related clustering method and shown to give a relative change in the error rate of as

  3. The Candy model revisited: Markov properties and inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette); R.S. Stoica

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThis paper studies the Candy model, a marked point process introduced by Stoica et al. (2000). We prove Ruelle and local stability, investigate its Markov properties, and discuss how the model may be sampled. Finally, we consider estimation of the model parameters and present some

  4. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...

  5. Markov queue game with virtual reality strategies | Nwobi-Okoye ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A non cooperative markov game with several unique characteristics was introduced. Some of these characteristics include: the existence of a single phase multi server queuing model and markovian transition matrix/matrices for each game, introduction of virtual situations (virtual reality) or dummies to improve the chances ...

  6. Critical Age-Dependent Branching Markov Processes and their ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper studies: (i) the long-time behaviour of the empirical distribution of age and normalized position of an age-dependent critical branching Markov process conditioned on non-extinction; and (ii) the super-process limit of a sequence of age-dependent critical branching Brownian motions.

  7. On Characterisation of Markov Processes Via Martingale Problems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This extension is used to improve on a criterion for a probability measure to be invariant for the semigroup associated with the Markov process. We also give examples of martingale problems that are well-posed in the class of solutions which are continuous in probability but for which no r.c.l.l. solution exists.

  8. Markov Stochastic Technique to Determine Galactic Cosmic Ray ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A new numerical model of particle propagation in the Galaxy has been developed, which allows the study of cosmic-ray production and propagation in 2D. The model has been used to solve cosmic ray diffusive transport equation with a complete network of nuclear interactions using the time backward Markov stochastic ...

  9. A theoretical Markov chain model for evaluating correctional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper a stochastic method is applied in the study of the long time effect of confinement in a correctional institution on the behaviour of a person with criminal tendencies. The approach used is Markov chain, which uses past history to predict the state of a system in the future. A model is developed for comparing the ...

  10. Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, Hidden Markov Model is applied to model human movements as to facilitate an automatic detection of the same. A number of activities were simulated with the help of two persons. The four movements considered are walking, sitting down-getting up, fall while walking and fall while standing. The data is ...

  11. A Markov deterioration model for predicting recurrent maintenance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The parameters of the Markov chain model for predicting the condition of the road at a design · period for· the flexible pavement failures of wheel track rutting, cracks and pot holes were developed for the Niger State· road network . in Nigeria. Twelve sampled candidate roads were each subjected to standard inventory, traffic ...

  12. When are two Markov chains the same? | Cowen | Quaestiones ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Given two one-sided Markov chains, the authors illustrate a procedure for ascertaining whether they are essentially the same. Precisely, they show how one can determine whether they are block-isomorphic. An application to hydrology is investigated with an example. Quaestiones Mathematicae 23(2000), 507–513 ...

  13. Efficient Modelling and Generation of Markov Automata (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a framework for the efficient modelling and generation of Markov automata. It consists of (1) the data-rich process-algebraic language MAPA, allowing concise modelling of systems with nondeterminism, probability and Markovian timing; (2) a restricted form of the language, the

  14. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in radiotherapy treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hugtenburg, R.P.

    2001-01-01

    The Markov chain method can be used to incorporate measured data in Monte Carlo based radiotherapy treatment planning. This paper shows that convergence to the measured data, within the target precision, is achievable. Relative output factors for blocked fields and oblique beams are shown to compare well with independent measurements according to the same criterion. (orig.)

  15. Markov LIMID processes for representing and solving renewal problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Erik; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Nilsson, Dennis

    2014-01-01

    to model a Markov Limid Process, where each TemLimid represents a macro action. Algorithms are presented to find optimal plans for a sequence of such macro actions. Use of algorithms is illustrated based on an extended version of an example from pig production originally used to introduce the Limid concept...

  16. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan B. Djordjevic

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i Markovian classical model, (ii Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage Markov chain-like models of aging, which

  17. Markov chain formalism for generalized radiative transfer in a plane-parallel medium, accounting for polarization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Feng; Davis, Anthony B.; Diner, David J.

    2016-01-01

    A Markov chain formalism is developed for computing the transport of polarized radiation according to Generalized Radiative Transfer (GRT) theory, which was developed recently to account for unresolved random fluctuations of scattering particle density and can also be applied to unresolved spectral variability of gaseous absorption as an improvement over the standard correlated-k method. Using Gamma distribution to describe the probability density function of the extinction or absorption coefficient, a shape parameter a that quantifies the variability is introduced, defined as the mean extinction or absorption coefficient squared divided by its variance. It controls the decay rate of a power-law transmission that replaces the usual exponential Beer-Lambert-Bouguer law. Exponential transmission, hence classic RT, is recovered when a→∞. The new approach is verified to high accuracy against numerical benchmark results obtained with a custom Monte Carlo method. For a<∞, angular reciprocity is violated to a degree that increases with the spatial variability, as observed for finite portions of real-world cloudy scenes. While the degree of linear polarization in liquid water cloudbows, supernumerary bows, and glories is affected by spatial heterogeneity, the positions in scattering angle of these features are relatively unchanged. As a result, a single-scattering model based on the assumption of subpixel homogeneity can still be used to derive droplet size distributions from polarimetric measurements of extended stratocumulus clouds. - Highlights: • A Markov chain formalism is developed for Generalized Radiative Transfer theory. • Angular reciprocity is violated to a degree that increases with spatial variability. • The positions of cloudbows and glories in scattering angle are relatively unchanged.

  18. Medieval Karelian Calendar Names: A Cognitive Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Kyurshunova

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on calendar personal names recorded in the 15–17th centuries Russian and Swedish manuscripts written in Karelia. Revealing the cognitive potential of this historical stratum of names, the author analyzes the frequency of full (official and modified forms of calendar names, the regional peculiarities of their linguistic adaptation, their ethnolinguisitic and social status, as well as the functioning of calendar names in the regional onomastic system. The analysis shows that the calendar onomasticon holds the leading positions, which reflects important axiological and mental shifts in the people’s culture. The list of most frequent Christian names of the region generally coincides with the onomastic data related to other Russian territories of the same period. The conservation of the name nomenclature is due to family traditions, namely, to familial practices of naming. However, the adaptation and distribution of names display some regional features, particularly in the frequency of different groups of anthroponyms. The peripheral situation of the region and the presence of Balto-Fennic population which adapted the Russian calendar athroponymicon determined the “conservatism” of the calendar names nomenclature: for naming, they selected the names which were better adapted and more extensively used among Russians. The formation of modified names depended mostly on the morphemic structure of the Russian language, regional features being relatively insignificant. The frequency of modified forms of names correlates with the genre of the manuscript and the scribe’s arbitrariness.

  19. Bacterial genomes lacking long-range correlations may not be modeled by low-order Markov chains: the role of mixing statistics and frame shift of neighboring genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocho, Germinal; Miramontes, Pedro; Mansilla, Ricardo; Li, Wentian

    2014-12-01

    We examine the relationship between exponential correlation functions and Markov models in a bacterial genome in detail. Despite the well known fact that Markov models generate sequences with correlation function that decays exponentially, simply constructed Markov models based on nearest-neighbor dimer (first-order), trimer (second-order), up to hexamer (fifth-order), and treating the DNA sequence as being homogeneous all fail to predict the value of exponential decay rate. Even reading-frame-specific Markov models (both first- and fifth-order) could not explain the fact that the exponential decay is very slow. Starting with the in-phase coding-DNA-sequence (CDS), we investigated correlation within a fixed-codon-position subsequence, and in artificially constructed sequences by packing CDSs with out-of-phase spacers, as well as altering CDS length distribution by imposing an upper limit. From these targeted analyses, we conclude that the correlation in the bacterial genomic sequence is mainly due to a mixing of heterogeneous statistics at different codon positions, and the decay of correlation is due to the possible out-of-phase between neighboring CDSs. There are also small contributions to the correlation from bases at the same codon position, as well as by non-coding sequences. These show that the seemingly simple exponential correlation functions in bacterial genome hide a complexity in correlation structure which is not suitable for a modeling by Markov chain in a homogeneous sequence. Other results include: use of the (absolute value) second largest eigenvalue to represent the 16 correlation functions and the prediction of a 10-11 base periodicity from the hexamer frequencies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Hidden Markov models applied to a subsequence of the Xylella fastidiosa genome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Cibele Q. da

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Dependencies in DNA sequences are frequently modeled using Markov models. However, Markov chains cannot account for heterogeneity that may be present in different regions of the same DNA sequence. Hidden Markov models are more realistic than Markov models since they allow for the identification of heterogeneous regions of a DNA sequence. In this study we present an application of hidden Markov models to a subsequence of the Xylella fastidiosa DNA data. We found that a three-state model provides a good description for the data considered.

  1. SOCIOLINGUISTIC IMPORT OF NAME-CLIPPING AMONG ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NGOZI

    2013-02-27

    Feb 27, 2013 ... experiences which, most of the times, encompass cultural and philosophical ... The art of name clipping goes way back in language history ... describes Akan names as “iconic representation of complete social variables that ...

  2. The semi-Markov process. Generalizations and calculation rules for application in the analysis of systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschmann, H.

    1983-06-01

    The consequences of the basic assumptions of the semi-Markov process as defined from a homogeneous renewal process with a stationary Markov condition are reviewed. The notion of the semi-Markov process is generalized by its redefinition from a nonstationary Markov renewal process. For both the nongeneralized and the generalized case a representation of the first order conditional state probabilities is derived in terms of the transition probabilities of the Markov renewal process. Some useful calculation rules (regeneration rules) are derived for the conditional state probabilities of the semi-Markov process. Compared to the semi-Markov process in its usual definition the generalized process allows the analysis of a larger class of systems. For instance systems with arbitrarily distributed lifetimes of their components can be described. There is also a chance to describe systems which are modified during time by forces or manipulations from outside. (Auth.)

  3. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2018-01-01

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Naming game with learning errors in communications

    OpenAIRE

    Lou, Yang; Chen, Guanrong

    2014-01-01

    Naming game simulates the process of naming an objective by a population of agents organized in a certain communication network topology. By pair-wise iterative interactions, the population reaches a consensus state asymptotically. In this paper, we study naming game with communication errors during pair-wise conversations, where errors are represented by error rates in a uniform probability distribution. First, a model of naming game with learning errors in communications (NGLE) is proposed....

  5. 27 CFR 19.165 - Trade names.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Trade names. 19.165 Section 19.165 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT... Trade names. (a) Operating permits. Where a trade name is to be used in connection with the operations...

  6. Once more the generic name Passerina Vieillot

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oort, van E.D.

    1910-01-01

    The note on the generic name of the Snow-bunting by Dr. E. Hartert in this part of our periodical gives me cause to revert to the subject of my note on the generic name Passerina Vieillot and to state here, that I stand to what I have said about the rejection of this name in Zoology (Notes Leyden

  7. Towards proper name generation : A corpus analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castro Ferreira, Thiago; Wubben, Sander; Krahmer, Emiel

    We introduce a corpus for the study of proper name generation. The corpus consists of proper name references to people in webpages, extracted from the Wikilinks corpus. In our analyses, we aim to identify the different ways, in terms of length and form, in which a proper names are produced

  8. Resolving person names in web people search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balog, K.; Azzopardi, L.; de Rijke, M.; King, I.; Baeza-Yates, R.

    2009-01-01

    Disambiguating person names in a set of documents (such as a set of web pages returned in response to a person name) is a key task for the presentation of results and the automatic profiling of experts. With largely unstructured documents and an unknown number of people with the same name the

  9. Assigned value improves memory of proper names.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Festini, Sara B; Hartley, Alan A; Tauber, Sarah K; Rhodes, Matthew G

    2013-01-01

    Names are more difficult to remember than other personal information such as occupations. The current research examined the influence of assigned point value on memory and metamemory judgements for names and occupations to determine whether incentive can improve recall of proper names. In Experiment 1 participants studied face-name and face-occupation pairs assigned 1 or 10 points, made judgements of learning, and were given a cued recall test. High-value names were recalled more often than low-value names. However, recall of occupations was not influenced by value. In Experiment 2 meaningless nonwords were used for both names and occupations. The name difficulty disappeared, and value influenced recall of both names and occupations. Thus value similarly influenced names and occupations when meaningfulness was held constant. In Experiment 3 participants were required to use overt rote rehearsal for all items. Value did not boost recall of high-value names, suggesting that differential processing could not be implemented to improve memory. Thus incentives may improve memory for proper names by motivating people to engage in selective rehearsal and effortful elaborative processing.

  10. Color Naming Experiment in Mongolian Language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandin-Erdene Osorjamaa

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available There are numerous researches on color terms and names in many languages. In Mongolian language there are few doctoral theses on color naming. Cross cultural studies of color naming have demonstrated Semantic relevance in French and Mongolian color name Gerlee Sh. (2000; Comparisons of color naming across English and Mongolian Uranchimeg B. (2004; Semantic comparison between Russian and Mongolian idioms Enhdelger O. (1996; across symbolism Dulam S. (2007 and few others. Also a few articles on color naming by some Mongolian scholars are Tsevel, Ya. (1947, Baldan, L. (1979, Bazarragchaa, M. (1997 and others. Color naming studies are not sufficiently studied in Modern Mongolian. Our research is considered to be the first intended research on color naming in Modern Mongolian, because it is one part of Ph.D dissertation on color naming. There are two color naming categories in Mongolian, basic color terms and non- basic color terms. There are seven basic color terms in Mongolian. This paper aims to consider how Mongolian color names are derived from basic colors by using psycholinguistics associative experiment. It maintains the students and researchers to acquire the specific understanding of the differences and similarities of color naming in Mongolian and  English languages from the psycho-linguistic aspect.

  11. The Private Legal Governance of Domain Names

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schovsbo, Jens Hemmingsen

    2015-01-01

    . the UDRP (WIPO) and the Danish Complaints Board for Internet Domain Names (the Board) to discuss how and to what extent the domain name system balances interests between trademark owners and other users of domain names and secures the rule of law (legal certainty and predictability) with a special focus...

  12. Video Quality Prediction Models Based on Video Content Dynamics for H.264 Video over UMTS Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asiya Khan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present video quality prediction models for objective non-intrusive, prediction of H.264 encoded video for all content types combining parameters both in the physical and application layer over Universal Mobile Telecommunication Systems (UMTS networks. In order to characterize the Quality of Service (QoS level, a learning model based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS and a second model based on non-linear regression analysis is proposed to predict the video quality in terms of the Mean Opinion Score (MOS. The objective of the paper is two-fold. First, to find the impact of QoS parameters on end-to-end video quality for H.264 encoded video. Second, to develop learning models based on ANFIS and non-linear regression analysis to predict video quality over UMTS networks by considering the impact of radio link loss models. The loss models considered are 2-state Markov models. Both the models are trained with a combination of physical and application layer parameters and validated with unseen dataset. Preliminary results show that good prediction accuracy was obtained from both the models. The work should help in the development of a reference-free video prediction model and QoS control methods for video over UMTS networks.

  13. Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

  14. Active Learning of Markov Decision Processes for System Verification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yingke; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2012-01-01

    deterministic Markov decision processes from data by actively guiding the selection of input actions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed by learning system models of slot machines, and it is demonstrated that the proposed active learning procedure can significantly reduce the amount of data required...... demanding process, and this shortcoming has motivated the development of algorithms for automatically learning system models from observed system behaviors. Recently, algorithms have been proposed for learning Markov decision process representations of reactive systems based on alternating sequences...... of input/output observations. While alleviating the problem of manually constructing a system model, the collection/generation of observed system behaviors can also prove demanding. Consequently we seek to minimize the amount of data required. In this paper we propose an algorithm for learning...

  15. Recursive utility in a Markov environment with stochastic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Lars Peter; Scheinkman, José A

    2012-07-24

    Recursive utility models that feature investor concerns about the intertemporal composition of risk are used extensively in applied research in macroeconomics and asset pricing. These models represent preferences as the solution to a nonlinear forward-looking difference equation with a terminal condition. In this paper we study infinite-horizon specifications of this difference equation in the context of a Markov environment. We establish a connection between the solution to this equation and to an arguably simpler Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue equation of the type that occurs in the study of large deviations for Markov processes. By exploiting this connection, we establish existence and uniqueness results. Moreover, we explore a substantive link between large deviation bounds for tail events for stochastic consumption growth and preferences induced by recursive utility.

  16. Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-09-01

    Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  17. A Markov chain model for CANDU feeder pipe degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datla, S.; Dinnie, K.; Usmani, A.; Yuan, X.-X.

    2008-01-01

    There is need for risk based approach to manage feeder pipe degradation to ensure safe operation by minimizing the nuclear safety risk. The current lack of understanding of some fundamental degradation mechanisms will result in uncertainty in predicting the rupture frequency. There are still concerns caused by uncertainties in the inspection techniques and engineering evaluations which should be addressed in the current procedures. A probabilistic approach is therefore useful in quantifying the risk and also it provides a tool for risk based decision making. This paper discusses the application of Markov chain model for feeder pipes in order to predict and manage the risks associated with the existing and future aging-related feeder degradation mechanisms. The major challenge in the approach is the lack of service data in characterizing the transition probabilities of the Markov model. The paper also discusses various approaches in estimating plant specific degradation rates. (author)

  18. Geometric allocation approaches in Markov chain Monte Carlo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todo, S; Suwa, H

    2013-01-01

    The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is a versatile tool in statistical physics to evaluate multi-dimensional integrals numerically. For the method to work effectively, we must consider the following key issues: the choice of ensemble, the selection of candidate states, the optimization of transition kernel, algorithm for choosing a configuration according to the transition probabilities. We show that the unconventional approaches based on the geometric allocation of probabilities or weights can improve the dynamics and scaling of the Monte Carlo simulation in several aspects. Particularly, the approach using the irreversible kernel can reduce or sometimes completely eliminate the rejection of trial move in the Markov chain. We also discuss how the space-time interchange technique together with Walker's method of aliases can reduce the computational time especially for the case where the number of candidates is large, such as models with long-range interactions

  19. Pattern statistics on Markov chains and sensitivity to parameter estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuel Grégory

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: In order to compute pattern statistics in computational biology a Markov model is commonly used to take into account the sequence composition. Usually its parameter must be estimated. The aim of this paper is to determine how sensitive these statistics are to parameter estimation, and what are the consequences of this variability on pattern studies (finding the most over-represented words in a genome, the most significant common words to a set of sequences,.... Results: In the particular case where pattern statistics (overlap counting only computed through binomial approximations we use the delta-method to give an explicit expression of σ, the standard deviation of a pattern statistic. This result is validated using simulations and a simple pattern study is also considered. Conclusion: We establish that the use of high order Markov model could easily lead to major mistakes due to the high sensitivity of pattern statistics to parameter estimation.

  20. Inference with constrained hidden Markov models in PRISM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp

    2010-01-01

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. De......_different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment.......A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference...

  1. HMMEditor: a visual editing tool for profile hidden Markov model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Jianlin

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a powerful statistical model to represent a family of DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. Profile HMM has been widely used in bioinformatics research such as sequence alignment, gene structure prediction, motif identification, protein structure prediction, and biological database search. However, few comprehensive, visual editing tools for profile HMM are publicly available. Results We develop a visual editor for profile Hidden Markov Models (HMMEditor. HMMEditor can visualize the profile HMM architecture, transition probabilities, and emission probabilities. Moreover, it provides functions to edit and save HMM and parameters. Furthermore, HMMEditor allows users to align a sequence against the profile HMM and to visualize the corresponding Viterbi path. Conclusion HMMEditor provides a set of unique functions to visualize and edit a profile HMM. It is a useful tool for biological sequence analysis and modeling. Both HMMEditor software and web service are freely available.

  2. Official Naming in Hå, Klepp and Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Særheim

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Toponyms localize, reflect and give information about historical traditions and various phenomena in an area. They form part of the local heritage and culture. The relationship between place names, heritage and identity is often underlined in guidelines regarding official naming of streets and roads. In what way is heritage and local identity reflected in the road names of the three municipalities Hå, Klepp and Time (Southwest-Norway, and how is the special character of this area expressed in the names? More than half of the official road names in the three municipalities are either identical with a local toponym, or they consist of a word for ‘road’ and a local toponym (or an appellative describing the location. This shows that there is a strong commitment to base the official naming on local tradition and thus contribute to identity. Quite a few elements from the dialect, e.g. special pronunciation, grammatical forms or local words, appear in the names, especially in the road names from Hå, reflecting that the names are part of the local culture, and due to the fact that the dialect is unique. Consistency is a challenge, however; the same word is sometimes spelled in different ways in different names. It appears that, with some exceptions, cultural heritage and local tradition have been preferred principles and guidelines with regard to naming of roads in the three municipalities, due to a consciousness that heritage and tradition create identity.

  3. Name signs in Danish Sign Language

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakken Jepsen, Julie

    2018-01-01

    in spoken languages, where a person working as a blacksmith by his friends might be referred to as ‘The Blacksmith’ (‘Here comes the Blacksmith!’) instead of using the person’s first name. Name signs are found not only in Danish Sign Language (DSL) but in most, if not all, sign languages studied to date....... This article provides examples of the creativity of the users of Danish Sign Language, including some of the processes in the use of metaphors, visual motivation and influence from Danish when name signs are created.......A name sign is a personal sign assigned to deaf, hearing impaired and hearing persons who enter the deaf community. The mouth action accompanying the sign reproduces all or part of the formal first name that the person has received by baptism or naming. Name signs can be compared to nicknames...

  4. Maximum Entropy Estimation of Transition Probabilities of Reversible Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Van der Straeten

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a general theory for the estimation of the transition probabilities of reversible Markov chains using the maximum entropy principle. A broad range of physical models can be studied within this approach. We use one-dimensional classical spin systems to illustrate the theoretical ideas. The examples studied in this paper are: the Ising model, the Potts model and the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model.

  5. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Rocio; Bertrand, Sophie; Tam, Jorge; Fablet, Ronan

    2013-01-01

    One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs). We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour), while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising) were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%), significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  6. Markov traces and II1 factors in conformal field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, J. de; Goeree, J.

    1991-01-01

    Using the duality equations of Moore and Seiberg we define for every primary field in a Rational Conformal Field Theory a proper Markov trace and hence a knot invariant. Next we define two nested algebras and show, using results of Ocneanu, how the position of the smaller algebra in the larger one reproduces part of the duality data. A new method for constructing Rational Conformal Field Theories is proposed. (orig.)

  7. A Partially Observed Markov Decision Process for Dynamic Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Yossi Aviv; Amit Pazgal

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a stylized partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework to study a dynamic pricing problem faced by sellers of fashion-like goods. We consider a retailer that plans to sell a given stock of items during a finite sales season. The objective of the retailer is to dynamically price the product in a way that maximizes expected revenues. Our model brings together various types of uncertainties about the demand, some of which are resolvable through sales ob...

  8. The computation of stationary distributions of Markov chains through perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffery J. Hunter

    1991-01-01

    Full Text Available An algorithmic procedure for the determination of the stationary distribution of a finite, m-state, irreducible Markov chain, that does not require the use of methods for solving systems of linear equations, is presented. The technique is based upon a succession of m, rank one, perturbations of the trivial doubly stochastic matrix whose known steady state vector is updated at each stage to yield the required stationary probability vector.

  9. R Package clickstream: Analyzing Clickstream Data with Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Scholz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Clickstream analysis is a useful tool for investigating consumer behavior, market research and software testing. I present the clickstream package which provides functionality for reading, clustering, analyzing and writing clickstreams in R. The package allows for a modeling of lists of clickstreams as zero-, first- and higher-order Markov chains. I illustrate the application of clickstream for a list of representative clickstreams from an online store.

  10. Markov Chain Models for Stochastic Behavior in Resonance Overlap Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Morgan; Quillen, Alice

    2018-01-01

    We aim to predict lifetimes of particles in chaotic zoneswhere resonances overlap. A continuous-time Markov chain model isconstructed using mean motion resonance libration timescales toestimate transition times between resonances. The model is applied todiffusion in the co-rotation region of a planet. For particles begunat low eccentricity, the model is effective for early diffusion, butnot at later time when particles experience close encounters to the planet.

  11. Parallel algorithms for simulating continuous time Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, David M.; Heidelberger, Philip

    1992-01-01

    We have previously shown that the mathematical technique of uniformization can serve as the basis of synchronization for the parallel simulation of continuous-time Markov chains. This paper reviews the basic method and compares five different methods based on uniformization, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses as a function of problem characteristics. The methods vary in their use of optimism, logical aggregation, communication management, and adaptivity. Performance evaluation is conducted on the Intel Touchstone Delta multiprocessor, using up to 256 processors.

  12. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocio Joo

    Full Text Available One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs. We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs. They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour, while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%, significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  13. Pemodelan Markov Switching Dengan Time-varying Transition Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Savitri, Anggita Puri; Warsito, Budi; Rahmawati, Rita

    2016-01-01

    Exchange rate or currency is an economic variable which reflects country's state of economy. It fluctuates over time because of its ability to switch the condition or regime caused by economic and political factors. The changes in the exchange rate are depreciation and appreciation. Therefore, it could be modeled using Markov Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probability which observe the conditional changes and use information variable. From this model, time-varying transition probabili...

  14. Geometry and Dynamics for Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    OpenAIRE

    Barp, Alessandro; Briol, Francois-Xavier; Kennedy, Anthony D.; Girolami, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have revolutionised mathematical computation and enabled statistical inference within many previously intractable models. In this context, Hamiltonian dynamics have been proposed as an efficient way of building chains which can explore probability densities efficiently. The method emerges from physics and geometry and these links have been extensively studied by a series of authors through the last thirty years. However, there is currently a gap between the in...

  15. The Perron-Frobenius Theorem for Markov Semigroups

    OpenAIRE

    Hijab, Omar

    2014-01-01

    Let $P^V_t$, $t\\ge0$, be the Schrodinger semigroup associated to a potential $V$ and Markov semigroup $P_t$, $t\\ge0$, on $C(X)$. Existence is established of a left eigenvector and right eigenvector corresponding to the spectral radius $e^{\\lambda_0t}$ of $P^V_t$, simultaneously for all $t\\ge0$. This is derived with no compactness assumption on the semigroup operators.

  16. ON THE ISSUE OF "MEMORY" MARKOV MODEL OF DAMAGE ACCUMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Lantuh-Lyaschenko

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of a probabilistic approach for the modeling of service life of highway bridge elements. The focus of this paper is on the Markov stochastic deterioration models. These models can be used as effective tool for technical state assessments and prediction of residual resource of a structure. For the bridge maintenance purpose these models can give quantitative criteria of a reliability level, risk and prediction algorithms of the residual resource.

  17. Mean-Variance Optimization in Markov Decision Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Mannor, Shie; Tsitsiklis, John N.

    2011-01-01

    We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove that the complexity of computing a policy that maximizes the mean reward under a variance constraint is NP-hard for some cases, and strongly NP-hard for others. We finally offer pseudo-polynomial exact and approximation algorithms.

  18. MARKOV CHAIN MODELING OF PERFORMANCE DEGRADATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM

    OpenAIRE

    E. Suresh Kumar; Asis Sarkar; Dhiren kumar Behera

    2012-01-01

    Modern probability theory studies chance processes for which theknowledge of previous outcomes influence predictions for future experiments. In principle, when a sequence of chance experiments, all of the past outcomes could influence the predictions for the next experiment. In Markov chain type of chance, the outcome of a given experiment can affect the outcome of the next experiment. The system state changes with time and the state X and time t are two random variables. Each of these variab...

  19. On the entropy of a hidden Markov process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Philippe; Seroussi, Gadiel; Szpankowski, Wojciech

    2008-05-01

    We study the entropy rate of a hidden Markov process (HMP) defined by observing the output of a binary symmetric channel whose input is a first-order binary Markov process. Despite the simplicity of the models involved, the characterization of this entropy is a long standing open problem. By presenting the probability of a sequence under the model as a product of random matrices, one can see that the entropy rate sought is equal to a top Lyapunov exponent of the product. This offers an explanation for the elusiveness of explicit expressions for the HMP entropy rate, as Lyapunov exponents are notoriously difficult to compute. Consequently, we focus on asymptotic estimates, and apply the same product of random matrices to derive an explicit expression for a Taylor approximation of the entropy rate with respect to the parameter of the binary symmetric channel. The accuracy of the approximation is validated against empirical simulation results. We also extend our results to higher-order Markov processes and to Rényi entropies of any order.

  20. Extracting Markov Models of Peptide Conformational Dynamics from Simulation Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultheis, Verena; Hirschberger, Thomas; Carstens, Heiko; Tavan, Paul

    2005-07-01

    A high-dimensional time series obtained by simulating a complex and stochastic dynamical system (like a peptide in solution) may code an underlying multiple-state Markov process. We present a computational approach to most plausibly identify and reconstruct this process from the simulated trajectory. Using a mixture of normal distributions we first construct a maximum likelihood estimate of the point density associated with this time series and thus obtain a density-oriented partition of the data space. This discretization allows us to estimate the transfer operator as a matrix of moderate dimension at sufficient statistics. A nonlinear dynamics involving that matrix and, alternatively, a deterministic coarse-graining procedure are employed to construct respective hierarchies of Markov models, from which the model most plausibly mapping the generating stochastic process is selected by consideration of certain observables. Within both procedures the data are classified in terms of prototypical points, the conformations, marking the various Markov states. As a typical example, the approach is applied to analyze the conformational dynamics of a tripeptide in solution. The corresponding high-dimensional time series has been obtained from an extended molecular dynamics simulation.