WorldWideScience

Sample records for marketing wild simulated

  1. Digital Marketing for Russian Market. Case: Wild Taiga

    OpenAIRE

    Khmelevskoy, Sergey

    2015-01-01

    The thesis is aimed to develop suitable digital marketing strategy for Wild Taiga in order to target the Russian tourists efficiently, using different marketing tools based on integrated marketing communications principle. Effort have been made for practical orientation of this project with a strong theoretical part and analytical thinking. Theoretical framework includes analysis of digital marketing in contexts of tourism as well as Wild Taiga network. In order to discover the efficient ...

  2. Market tntegration between farmed and wild fish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bronnmann, Julia; Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Nielsen, Max

    2016-01-01

    Following decade-long growth in worldwide farming of pangasius and tilapia, imports to Germany, a main European market, have been reduced since 2010. One reason for this might be supply growth of wild species at the total German whitefish market, if market integration exists between farmed and wi...

  3. Performance of Wild Fruit Marketing in Nigeria: A Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Performance of Wild Fruit Marketing in Nigeria: A Case Study of African Star Apple ( Chrysophllum ... This study examined marketing of wild fruits in Nigeria using African Star Apple as a case study. ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  4. Wild vegetable mixes sold in the markets of Dalmatia (southern Croatia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łuczaj, Łukasz; Zovkokončić, Marijana; Miličević, Tihomir; Dolina, Katija; Pandža, Marija

    2013-01-03

    Dalmatia is an interesting place to study the use of wild greens as it lies at the intersection of influence of Slavs, who do not usually use many species of wild greens, and Mediterranean culinary culture, where the use of multiple wild greens is common. The aim of the study was to document the mixtures of wild green vegetables which are sold in all the vegetable markets of Dalmatia. All vendors (68) in all 11 major markets of the Dalmatian coast were interviewed. The piles of wild vegetables they sold were searched and herbarium specimens taken from them. The mean number of species in the mix was 5.7. The most commonly sold wild plants are: Sonchus oleraceus L., Allium ampeloprasum L., Foeniculum vulgare Mill., Urospermum picroides F.W.Schmidt, Papaver rhoeas L., Daucus carota L., Taraxacum sp., Picris echioides L., Silene latifolia Poir. and Crepis spp. Also the cultivated beet (Beta vulgaris L.) and a few cultivated Brassicaceae varieties are frequent components. Wild vegetables from the mix are usually boiled for 20-30 minutes and dressed with olive oil and salt. Altogether at least 37 wild taxa and 13 cultivated taxa were recorded.Apart from the mixes, Asparagus acutifolius L. and Tamus communis L. shoots are sold in separate bunches (they are usually eaten with eggs), as well as some Asteraceae species, the latter are eaten raw or briefly boiled. The rich tradition of eating many wild greens may result both from strong Venetian and Greek influences and the necessity of using all food resources available in the barren, infertile land in the past. Although the number of wild-collected green vegetables is impressive we hypothesize that it may have decreased over the years, and that further in-depth local ethnobotanical studies are needed in Dalmatia to record the disappearing knowledge of edible plants.

  5. Market Hydraulics and Subjectivities in the "Wild": Circulations of the Flea Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niklas Hansson

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Since consumer researchers started paying attention to flea markets they represent common consumer and market research objects. Arguably, in the "natural laboratory" of the flea market, researchers can observe and theorize market and consumer processes "in the wild", as forms of direct marketing and consumption. We build on existing flea market research through adopting a circulatory approach, inspired by actor-network theory (ANT. Rather than presenting a theory of (flea markets, ANT is useful for studying markets from the perspective of grounded market-making processes. Consumption is understood as the interplay of consumers, marketers, retailers, and a wide array of artifacts and market mediators like products, economic theories and ideas, packaging, market space (in the physical sense and furniture, etc. Our results point out that not only does such an approach enable analysis of features commonly studied within consumer research such as calculative action and social interaction, but also issues more rarely in focus in such research, such as cognitive patterns of consumer curiosity, emotions, senses, and affect. Furthermore, even though flea markets foremost are places of commerce and exchange of second hand goods, there is a large variety of other forms of flows or circulations going on "backstage" that enable the surface phenomena of second hand consumption to come into being. Many of these circulations, we argue, are material rather than immaterial Vendor and buyer subjectivities are thus understood as outcomes of circulatory dynamism that involves a range of material and immaterial flows.

  6. Kibale forest wild coffee: challenges to market-based conservation in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilieholm, Robert J; Weatherly, W Paul

    2010-08-01

    Declining rural security and pressures to reduce public-sector expenditures in the late 1990s spurred efforts to develop alternative funding models for Uganda's Kibale National Park (KNP). The Wild Coffee Project, established in 1999 with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development, the World Bank, and the Ford Foundation, sought to develop a market for wild coffee that had been harvested traditionally from areas within today's KNP. The Kibale Forest Foundation, a U.S.-based nonprofit organization, was created to legalize harvests, obtain third-party wild and organic certification, and coordinate management between KNP, the coffee industry, and local communities. Although the project was successful in legalizing, harvesting, and processing the world's first certified wild and organic coffee, efforts to gain entry into the international marketplace failed. Chief among the lessons learned from this project is that for many wild-grown products, the value of "the story"--in both human and conservation terms--is likely to far exceed actual product values. This value differential should be captured through high-value niche markets to avoid low commodity pricing and subsequent pressures to improve financial returns through over harvesting. In addition, local producers should hold significant assets in whatever brands are developed, creating a shared-equity approach that serves social responsibility goals, fosters project sustainability, and ensures a steady stream of positive stories for use in marketing to build brand value. Shared equity--in this case ownership interest in the intellectual property embodied in the brand--provides a second incentive beyond transactional profits that can only be realized if resource conservation is maintained.

  7. Wild vegetable mixes sold in the markets of Dalmatia (southern Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łuczaj Łukasz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dalmatia is an interesting place to study the use of wild greens as it lies at the intersection of influence of Slavs, who do not usually use many species of wild greens, and Mediterranean culinary culture, where the use of multiple wild greens is common. The aim of the study was to document the mixtures of wild green vegetables which are sold in all the vegetable markets of Dalmatia. Methods All vendors (68 in all 11 major markets of the Dalmatian coast were interviewed. The piles of wild vegetables they sold were searched and herbarium specimens taken from them. Results The mean number of species in the mix was 5.7. The most commonly sold wild plants are: Sonchus oleraceus L., Allium ampeloprasum L., Foeniculum vulgare Mill., Urospermum picroides F.W.Schmidt, Papaver rhoeas L., Daucus carota L., Taraxacum sp., Picris echioides L., Silene latifolia Poir. and Crepis spp. Also the cultivated beet (Beta vulgaris L. and a few cultivated Brassicaceae varieties are frequent components. Wild vegetables from the mix are usually boiled for 20–30 minutes and dressed with olive oil and salt. Altogether at least 37 wild taxa and 13 cultivated taxa were recorded. Apart from the mixes, Asparagus acutifolius L. and Tamus communis L. shoots are sold in separate bunches (they are usually eaten with eggs, as well as some Asteraceae species, the latter are eaten raw or briefly boiled. Conclusions The rich tradition of eating many wild greens may result both from strong Venetian and Greek influences and the necessity of using all food resources available in the barren, infertile land in the past. Although the number of wild-collected green vegetables is impressive we hypothesize that it may have decreased over the years, and that further in-depth local ethnobotanical studies are needed in Dalmatia to record the disappearing knowledge of edible plants.

  8. Wild and native plants and mushrooms sold in the open-air markets of south-eastern Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasper-Pakosz, Renata; Pietras, Marcin; Łuczaj, Łukasz

    2016-10-07

    The study of plants and fungi sold in open-air markets is an important part of ethnobotanical enquiry. Only few such studies were carried out in Europe. Four of the largest open-air markets of south-eastern Poland were visited regularly, and the plants sold in them were recorded between 2013 and 2015. The aim of the study was to record native and/or wild species sold in the markets. All the plants sold in the markets were photographed regularly. In each market, 25 sellers were interviewed. Voucher specimens were collected and fungi were identified using DNA barcoding. Altogether, 468 species of plants were recorded, 117 of them native to south-eastern Poland - 19 only collected from the wild and 11 both wild and cultivated. Seventeen of the species are under legal protection. Most protected plants were sold from cultivation, although proper authorization procedures had not been performed. Thirty-two species of fungi were sold (including two cultivated species), all of them for culinary purposes. Two species (Lactarius quieticolor, Leccinum schistophilum) are new to the mycobiota of Poland. Ornamental plants constituted a large section of the market, and they dominated the group of native species. Food plants dominated among wild-collected plants and were sold mainly as fruits for jams, juices and alcoholic drinks, or as culinary herbs. Very few medicinal or green vegetable plants were sold. An interesting feature of the markets was the sale of Ledum palustre as an insect repellent. Finding two species of fungi which are new to Poland highlights the importance of DNA barcoding in ethnomycological studies. Most items in the markets are ornamental plants, or edible fruits and mushrooms. Very few medicinal plants and green vegetables are sold, which differentiates the markets from southern European ones. Such a pattern is probably the model for most central European markets.

  9. Using Simulations in the Marketing Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kietzmann, Jan; Pitt, Leyland

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of "Journal of Marketing Education" was intended to engage as broad a perspective on simulations in the marketing classroom as possible. While some of the articles deal with the use of computerized marketing simulations, there are also articles that view simulations as imitating and pretending. The evidence from the…

  10. Gnathostoma spinigerum in live Asian swamp eels (Monopterus spp.) from food markets and wild populations, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Rebecca A.; Choudhury, Anindo; Nico, Leo G.; Griffin, Kathryn M.

    2014-01-01

    In Southeast Asia, swamp eels (Synbranchidae: Monopterus spp.) are a common source of human gnathostomiasis, a foodborne zoonosis caused by advanced third-stage larvae (AL3) of Gnathostoma spp. nematodes. Live Asian swamp eels are imported to US ethnic food markets, and wild populations exist in several states. To determine whether these eels are infected, we examined 47 eels from markets and 67 wild-caught specimens. Nematodes were identified by morphologic features and ribosomal intergenic transcribed spacer–2 gene sequencing. Thirteen (27.7%) M. cuchia eels from markets were infected with 36 live G. spinigerum AL3: 21 (58.3%) in liver; 7 (19.4%) in muscle; 5 (13.8%) in gastrointestinal tract, and 3 (8.3%) in kidneys. Three (4.5%) wild-caught M. albus eels were infected with 5 G. turgidum AL3 in muscle, and 1 G. lamothei AL3 was found in a kidney (both North American spp.). Imported live eels are a potential source of human gnathostomiasis in the United States.

  11. Entry, concentration and market efficiency: A simulation of the PJM energy market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvill, Terry

    The rapid and substantial expansion of the PJM energy market during 2004 and 2005 provides a unique opportunity to test the theory of market concentration and its effect on market efficiency. With ten years of operational experience, the PJM energy market is uniquely suited to test the theories of market concentration and efficiency in a natural experiment. This research tests the hypothesis that, for a given number of generating units in the industry, system marginal price will be a decreasing function of the number of owners or generators controlling the units (i.e., the industry concentration ratio). Market simulations are utilized to assess price-cost markups in the PJM energy market during three distinct periods of expansion: (1) pre-Commonwealth Edison integration, (2) pre-American Electric Power (AEP), Dayton Power and Light (DPL), Duquesne Light (Duquesne), and Dominion Virginia Power (Dominion) integration, and (3) post-AFT, DPL. Duquesne, and Dominion Integration. The results of the market simulations for the May 1 to August 31 periods for 2003, 2004, and 2005, indicate that the performance of the market improved with the addition of new market participants in 2004 and 2005. The results of the simulation indicate that the load-weighted Lerner index decreased to -3.70 percent in 2005 from 0.92 percent in 2003. Clearly, the addition of Commonwealth Edison in 2004 significantly increased constraints within the PJM energy market and likely impacted the observed prices in PJM during 2004 due to the lack of a significant link to the other PJM market participants. This deficiency was address in 2005 with the addition of American Electric Power. The market simulations also highlight the prevalence of computed negative markups in the simulation results. Many of the off-peak periods in particular are characterized by negative markups where the expected marginal cost exceeds the observed price. Unit commitment constraints are believed to largely account for these

  12. Elemental analysis of vegetables on the market. Comparison with wild plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, J.; Saitoh, Y.; Futatsugawa, S.; Sera, K.

    2006-01-01

    We have measured concentration of multi elements in vegetables on the market and a wild plant gathered around Nishina Memorial Cyclotron Center in Iwate prefecture by means of PIXE. Elemental concentration in vegetables cultivated by spraying mineral-rich waters was also analyzed. As a result, it is found that the mineral-supplying vegetables abundantly contain essential elements for body such as K, Ca, Fe, Cu and Zn in comparison with ordinary ones. With regard to a wild plant, concentration of essential elements such as Ca, Cu and Zn shows no clear difference in comparison with that in commercially available one of the same kind, while that of toxic elements such as Cr and Pb is relatively higher. Moreover, it is suggested that the wild plant has a certain property of concentrating a specific element depending on its growing period. The relation between elemental concentration in the plants and that in their growing environment, such as water and soil, was also examined. It is also suggested that elemental concentration in vegetables reflects elemental constituent not only of the soil but also of the sprayed water as well as of the fertilizer. (author)

  13. Realistic electricity market simulator for energy and economic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal-Agustin, Jose L.; Contreras, Javier; Conejo, Antonio J.; Martin-Flores, Raul

    2007-01-01

    Electricity market simulators have become a useful tool to train engineers in the power industry. With the maturing of electricity markets throughout the world, there is a need for sophisticated software tools that can replicate the actual behavior of power markets. In most of these markets, power producers/consumers submit production/demand bids and the Market Operator clears the market producing a single price per hour. What makes markets different from each other are the bidding rules and the clearing algorithms to balance the market. This paper presents a realistic simulator of the day-ahead electricity market of mainland Spain. All the rules that govern this market are modeled. This simulator can be used either to train employees by power companies or to teach electricity markets courses in universities. To illustrate the tool, several realistic case studies are presented and discussed. (author)

  14. On Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Electricity Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amelin, Mikael

    2004-07-01

    This dissertation is about how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to analyse electricity markets. There are a wide range of applications for simulation; for example, players in the electricity market can use simulation to decide whether or not an investment can be expected to be profitable, and authorities can by means of simulation find out which consequences a certain market design can be expected to have on electricity prices, environmental impact, etc. In the first part of the dissertation, the focus is which electricity market models are suitable for Monte Carlo simulation. The starting point is a definition of an ideal electricity market. Such an electricity market is partly practical from a mathematical point of view (it is simple to formulate and does not require too complex calculations) and partly it is a representation of the best possible resource utilisation. The definition of the ideal electricity market is followed by analysis how the reality differs from the ideal model, what consequences the differences have on the rules of the electricity market and the strategies of the players, as well as how non-ideal properties can be included in a mathematical model. Particularly, questions about environmental impact, forecast uncertainty and grid costs are studied. The second part of the dissertation treats the Monte Carlo technique itself. To reduce the number of samples necessary to obtain accurate results, variance reduction techniques can be used. Here, six different variance reduction techniques are studied and possible applications are pointed out. The conclusions of these studies are turned into a method for efficient simulation of basic electricity markets. The method is applied to some test systems and the results show that the chosen variance reduction techniques can produce equal or better results using 99% fewer samples compared to when the same system is simulated without any variance reduction technique. More complex electricity market models

  15. World oil market simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldwin, N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

  16. A game theory simulator for assessing the performances of competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bompard, Ettore; Carpaneto, Enrico; Ciwei, Gao; Napoli, Roberto; Benini, Michele; Gallanti, Massimo; Migliavacca, Gianluigi

    2008-01-01

    In the last years, electricity markets were created all over the world following different basis concepts. Market structure, market rules, demand levels, market concentration and energy sources to produce electricity have a strong influence on market performances. Modifications on these aspects may significantly affect market outcomes. Sensitivity analyses need proper simulation tools. In this paper a medium run electricity market simulator (MREMS) based on game theory is presented. This simulator incorporates two different games, one for the unit commitment of thermal units and one for strategic bidding and hourly market clearing. Either a Forchheimer (one leader) or Bertrand (all player are leaders) or even intermediate model with a whatever number of leaders can be selected, in dependence on the strategic behavior of the producers, allowing for the simulation of markets with different levels of concentration. The simulator was applied to analyse producers' behavior during the first operative year of the Italian power exchange. A comparison between simulation and true market results was carried out in order to test the simulator and validate its simplifying hypotheses. MREMS, yet capable to be used stand-alone, was conceived as the heart of a long-term market simulator (LREMS) allowing to simulate the long-run evolution of the generation park (investments in new plants, refurbishment and dismission of older ones). LREMS is a hierarchic simulator: a long-term ''outer'' game takes yearly investment decisions based on mid-term price projections provided by MREMS. Although this paper is mainly devoted to describe MREMS, one specific section will provide an overview of the ''outer'' game implemented by LREMS. (author)

  17. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.; Pereira, Ivo F.; Fernandes, Ricardo; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Definition of an ontology allowing the communication between multi-agents systems. • Social welfare evaluation in different electricity markets. • Demonstration of the use of the proposed ontology between two multi-agents systems. • Strategic biding in electricity markets. • European electricity markets comparison. - Abstract: The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution

  18. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  19. Market integration in the crustaceans market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Bronnmann, Julia

    2018-01-01

    are substitutes. Price determination processes for the shrimp markets vary with the level of the value chain. The results imply that the wild and farmed crustaceans markets are interacting through substitution effects. Hence, the markets have the capability to shield volatile and rising prices that would emanate......In this paper the price dynamics and the degree of market integration in the German crustaceans market is examined using cointegration methods. The study focuses on wild caught cold water shrimp, farmed warm water shrimp as well as lobster and derives implications for the fisheries sector....... In the analysis, both the import market and the retail market price reactions are distinguished. Therefore, it is evaluated how price changes affect competing commodities within and between the value chain of a given crustaceans commodity. Evidence of partial market integration is found for all species under...

  20. SIMULATING AN EVOLUTIONARY MULTI-AGENT BASED MODEL OF THE STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana MARICA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on artificial stock market simulations using a multi-agent model incorporating 2,000 heterogeneous agents interacting on the artificial market. The agents interaction is due to trading activity on the market through a call auction trading mechanism. The multi-agent model uses evolutionary techniques such as genetic programming in order to generate an adaptive and evolving population of agents. Each artificial agent is endowed with wealth and a genetic programming induced trading strategy. The trading strategy evolves and adapts to the new market conditions through a process called breeding, which implies that at each simulation step, new agents with better trading strategies are generated by the model, from recombining the best performing trading strategies and replacing the agents which have the worst performing trading strategies. The simulation model was build with the help of the simulation software Altreva Adaptive Modeler which offers a suitable platform for financial market simulations of evolutionary agent based models, the S&P500 composite index being used as a benchmark for the simulation results.

  1. An agent-based simulation of power generation company behavior in electricity markets under different market-clearing mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aliabadi, Danial Esmaeili; Kaya, Murat; Şahin, Güvenç

    2017-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets are expected to provide affordable electricity for consumers through promoting competition. Yet, the results do not always fulfill the expectations. The regulator's market-clearing mechanism is a strategic choice that may affect the level of competition in the market. We conceive of the market-clearing mechanism as composed of two components: pricing rules and rationing policies. We investigate the strategic behavior of power generation companies under different market-clearing mechanisms using an agent-based simulation model which integrates a game-theoretical understanding of the auction mechanism in the electricity market and generation companies' learning mechanism. Results of our simulation experiments are presented using various case studies representing different market settings. The market in simulations is observed to converge to a Nash equilibrium of the stage game or to a similar state under most parameter combinations. Compared to pay-as-bid pricing, bid prices are closer to marginal costs on average under uniform pricing while GenCos' total profit is also higher. The random rationing policy of the ISO turns out to be more successful in achieving lower bid prices and lower GenCo profits. In minimizing GenCos' total profit, a combination of pay-as-bid pricing rule and random rationing policy is observed to be the most promising. - Highlights: • An agent-based simulation of generation company behavior in electricity markets is developed. • Learning dynamics of companies is modeled with an extended Q-learning algorithm. • Different market clearing mechanisms of the regulator are compared. • Convergence to Nash equilibria is analyzed under different cases. • The level of competition in the market is studied.

  2. Simulation of Wild oat (Avena ludoviciana L. Competition on Winter Wheat (Triticum astivum Growth and Yield. I: Model Description and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Mondani

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Crop growth models could stimulate growth and development based on science principles and mathematical equations. They also able to evaluate effects of climate, soil, water and agronomic management practices on crop yield. In the present study, an eco-physiological simulation model developed to assess wild oat damage to winter wheat growth and yield. The general structure of this model is derived from LINTUL1 model which modified to wild oat competition against winter wheat. LINTUL1 model was developed for simulation of spring wheat potential production level. In this study, first, we added development stage (DVS and vernalization to LINTUL1 for simulation of winter wheat growth and development and then the model calibrated for potential production level. Finally, we incorporate harmful effects of wild oat to winter wheat growth and yield. Weather data used as input were average daily minimum and maximum temperature (°C and daily global radiation (MJ m-2 in Mashhad, Iran. Parameter values were derived from the literature. The model is written in Fortran Simulation Translator (FST programming language and then validated based on an experiment data. For these purposes different wild oat plant densities were arranged. The data of this experiment does not use for calibration. The results showed that this model was in general able to simulate the temporal changes in DVS of winter wheat and wild oat, total dry matter (TDM of winter wheat and wild oat and yield loss of wheat due to wild oat competition in all treatments, satisfactorily. Root mean square error (RMSE for winter wheat DVS, wild oat DVS, average winter wheat TDM, average wild oat TDM, and yield loss of winter wheat was 10.4, 14.5, 5.8, 7.6 and 7.5, respectively.

  3. Simulation of trading strategies in the electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charkiewicz, Kamil; Nowak, Robert

    2011-10-01

    The main objective of the energy market existence is reduction of the total cost of production, transport and distribution of energy, and so the prices paid by terminal consumers. Energy market contains few markets that are varying on operational rules, the important segments: the Futures Contract Market and Next Day Market are analyzed in presented approach. The computer system was developed to simulate the Polish Energy Market. This system use the multi-agent approach, where each agent is the separate shared library with defined interface. The software was used to compare strategies for players in energy market, where the strategies uses auto-regression, k-nearest neighbours, neural network and mixed algorithm, to predict the next price.

  4. pCloud: A Cloud-based Power Market Simulation Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudkevich, Aleksandr; Goldis, Evgeniy

    2012-12-02

    This research conducted by the Newton Energy Group, LLC (NEG) is dedicated to the development of pCloud: a Cloud-based Power Market Simulation Environment. pCloud is offering power industry stakeholders the capability to model electricity markets and is organized around the Software as a Service (SaaS) concept -- a software application delivery model in which software is centrally hosted and provided to many users via the internet. During the Phase I of this project NEG developed a prototype design for pCloud as a SaaS-based commercial service offering, system architecture supporting that design, ensured feasibility of key architecture's elements, formed technological partnerships and negotiated commercial agreements with partners, conducted market research and other related activities and secured funding for continue development of pCloud between the end of Phase I and beginning of Phase II, if awarded. Based on the results of Phase I activities, NEG has established that the development of a cloud-based power market simulation environment within the Windows Azure platform is technologically feasible, can be accomplished within the budget and timeframe available through the Phase II SBIR award with additional external funding. NEG believes that pCloud has the potential to become a game-changing technology for the modeling and analysis of electricity markets. This potential is due to the following critical advantages of pCloud over its competition: - Standardized access to advanced and proven power market simulators offered by third parties. - Automated parallelization of simulations and dynamic provisioning of computing resources on the cloud. This combination of automation and scalability dramatically reduces turn-around time while offering the capability to increase the number of analyzed scenarios by a factor of 10, 100 or even 1000. - Access to ready-to-use data and to cloud-based resources leading to a reduction in software, hardware, and IT costs

  5. MASCEM: EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead market integration and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Fernandes, Ricardo; Pinto, Tiago

    2015-01-01

    . It is crucial to MASCEM to have the ability to simulate as many market models and player types as possible, thus enhancing the ability to recreate the electricity markets reality in its maximum possible extent. This paper presents the EPEX Spot Day-Ahead market integration in MASCEM. EPEX Spot SE's mission...

  6. Simulating market dynamics : Interactions between consumer psychology and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.A; Jager, W.

    2003-01-01

    Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or a few products, to markets with continual penetration of new and reintroduced products. in a previous article we explored the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation

  7. Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R.

    2006-01-01

    Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

  8. Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R. [Konkuk Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2006-07-01

    Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs.

  9. A Marketing Perspective on Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia

    1989-01-01

    Examines the literature on marketing and uses the four elements of product, price, place, and promotion to elicit guidance for those who wish to market educational games, simulations, and workshops. Devising a marketing strategy centered on the customer is discussed, and the distinction between goods and services is described. (11 references)…

  10. The Stock Market Game: A Simulation of Stock Market Trading. Grades 5-8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draze, Dianne

    This guide to a unit on a simulation game about the stock market contains an instructional text and two separate simulations. Through directed lessons and reproducible worksheets, the unit teaches students about business ownership, stock exchanges, benchmarks, commissions, why prices change, the logistics of buying and selling stocks, and how to…

  11. Simulation of sovereign CDS market based on interaction between market participant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bonggyun; Kim, Kyungwon

    2017-08-01

    A research for distributional property of financial asset is the subject of intense interest not only for financial theory but also for practitioner. Such respect is no exception to CDS market. The CDS market, which began to receive attention since the global financial debacle, is not well researched despite of the importance of research necessity. This research introduces creation of CDS market and use Ising system utilizing occurrence characteristics (to shift risk) as an important factor. Therefore the results of this paper would be of great assistance to both financial theory and practice. From this study, not only distributional property of the CDS market but also various statistics like multifractal characteristics could promote understanding about the market. A salient point in this study is that countries are mainly clustering into 2 groups and it might be because of market situation and geographical characteristics of each country. This paper suggested 2 simulation parameters representing this market based on understanding such CDS market situation. The estimated parameters are suitable for high and low risk event of CDS market respectively and these two parameters are complementary and can cover not only basic statistics but also multifractal properties of most countries. Therefore these estimated parameters can be used in researches preparing for a certain event (high or low risk). Finally this research will serve as a momentum double-checking indirectly the performance of Ising system based on these results.

  12. Simulation of demand side participation in Spanish short term electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valencia-Salazar, I.; Alvarez, C.; Escriva-Escriva, G.; Alcazar-Ortega, M.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Benefits from customer active participation can be obtained with a proper generation of bids and offers. → Simulation of Spanish customers' participation is shown in daily, intra-daily and balancing markets. → Market efficiency and economics profits arise in balancing markets by using customer load reductions. → Real market prices and real customers' consumptions profiles are used in the simulations. -- Abstract: Demand response resources management is one of the most investigated solutions oriented to improve the efficiency in electricity markets. In this paper, the capability of customers to participate in short term markets is analyzed. An available methodology to analyze the daily and monthly energy consumptions of large customers is used to create energy offers and bids. This allows customers to participate in energy markets in order to buy, as first step, the usual electricity consumption and, additionally, to offer demand reductions in the short term electricity markets. Additionally, this paper shows the customer potential to participate in the Spanish electricity markets.

  13. Simulation of producers behaviour in the electricity market by evolutionary games

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menniti, Daniele; Pinnarelli, Anna; Sorrentino, Nicola [Department of Electronic, Computer and System Science, University of Calabria (Italy)

    2008-03-15

    Simulation of the electricity market participant's behaviour is important for producers and consumers to determine their bidding strategies and for regulating the market rules. In literature, for this aim a lot of papers suggest to use the well-known theory of non-cooperative games and the concept of Nash equilibrium. Unfortunately they cannot be applied in an easy way when a multi-players game has to be considered to simulate the operation of the electricity market. In this paper, the authors suggest to use the new theory of evolutionary games and the concept of near Nash equilibrium to simulate the electricity market in the presence of more than two producers. In particular, an opportune genetic algorithm has been developed; from the results reported in the paper, it is clear that this algorithm can be usefully utilised. (author)

  14. Simulation of producers behaviour in the electricity market by evolutionary games

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menniti, Daniele; Pinnarelli, Anna; Sorrentino, Nicola

    2008-01-01

    Simulation of the electricity market participant's behaviour is important for producers and consumers to determine their bidding strategies and for regulating the market rules. In literature, for this aim a lot of papers suggest to use the well-known theory of non-cooperative games and the concept of Nash equilibrium. Unfortunately they cannot be applied in an easy way when a multi-players game has to be considered to simulate the operation of the electricity market. In this paper, the authors suggest to use the new theory of evolutionary games and the concept of near Nash equilibrium to simulate the electricity market in the presence of more than two producers. In particular, an opportune genetic algorithm has been developed; from the results reported in the paper, it is clear that this algorithm can be usefully utilised. (author)

  15. Learner Satisfaction in Marketing Simulation Games: Antecedents and Influencers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruana, Albert; La Rocca, Antonella; Snehota, Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Simulation games have become widespread in business courses, yet the understanding of their learning effects remains limited. The effectiveness of using simulation in marketing classes is not uniform, and not all students welcome it to the same extent. Drawing on a survey among 173 students engaged in a simulation game as part of a course in a…

  16. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  17. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  18. Does Merger Simulation Work? A "Natural Experiment" in the Swedish Analgesics Market Market

    OpenAIRE

    Björnerstedt, Jonas; Verboven, Frank

    2012-01-01

    We exploit a natural experiment associated with a large merger in the Swedish market for analgesics (painkillers). We confront the predictions from a merger simulation study, as conducted during the investigation, with the actual merger effects over a two-year comparison window. The merger simulation model is based on a constant expenditures specification for the nested logit model (as an alternative to the typical unit demand specification). The model predicts a large price increase of 34% b...

  19. An Agent-Based Labor Market Simulation with Endogenous Skill-Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemkow, S.

    This paper considers an agent-based labor market simulation to examine the influence of skills on wages and unemployment rates. Therefore less and highly skilled workers as well as less and highly productive vacancies are implemented. The skill distribution is exogenous whereas the distribution of the less and highly productive vacancies is endogenous. The different opportunities of the skill groups on the labor market are established by skill requirements. This means that a highly productive vacancy can only be filled by a highly skilled unemployed. Different skill distributions, which can also be interpreted as skill-biased technological change, are simulated by incrementing the skill level of highly skilled persons exogenously. This simulation also provides a microeconomic foundation of the matching function often used in theoretical approaches.

  20. Using Intelligent System Approaches for Simulation of Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamagami, Tomoki

    Significances and approaches of applying intelligent systems to artificial electricity market is discussed. In recent years, with the moving into restructuring of electric system in Japan, the deregulation for the electric market is progressing. The most major change of the market is a founding of JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange.) which is expected to help lower power bills through effective use of surplus electricity. The electricity market designates exchange of electric power between electric power suppliers (supplier agents) themselves. In the market, the goal of each supplier agents is to maximize its revenue for the entire trading period, and shows complex behavior, which can model by a multiagent platform. Using the multiagent simulations which have been studied as “artificial market" helps to predict the spot prices, to plan investments, and to discuss the rules of market. Moreover, intelligent system approaches provide for constructing more reasonable policies of each agents. This article, first, makes a brief summary of the electricity market in Japan and the studies of artificial markets. Then, a survey of tipical studies of artificial electricity market is listed. Through these topics, the future vision is presented for the studies.

  1. Crossed and Locked Quotes in a Multi-Market Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Andrew; Beling, Peter; Scherer, William

    2016-01-01

    Financial markets are often fragmented, introducing the possibility that quotes in identical securities may become crossed or locked. There are a number of theoretical explanations for the existence of crossed and locked quotes, including competition, simultaneous actions, inattentiveness, fee structure and market access. In this paper, we perform a simulation experiment designed to examine the effect of simple order routing procedures on the properties of a fragmented market consisting of a single security trading in two independent limit order books. The quotes in the two markets are connected solely by the routing decision of the market participants. We report on the health of the consolidated market as measured by the duration of crossed and locked states, as well as the spread and the volatility of transaction prices in the consolidated market. We aim to quantify exactly how the prevalence of order routing among a population of market participants affects properties of the consolidated market. Our model contributes to the zero-intelligence literature by treating order routing as an experimental variable. Additionally, we introduce a parsimonious heuristic for limit order routing, allowing us to study the effects of both market order routing and limit order routing. Our model refines intuition for the sometimes subtle relationships between the prevalence of order routing and various market measures. Our model also provides a benchmark for more complex agent-based models.

  2. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sensfuss, F.; Ragwitz, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Genoese, M.; Moest, D. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (Germany). Inst. fuer Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion

    2007-07-01

    Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to con-sider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appear-ance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Fur-thermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instru-ments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets. (orig.)

  3. Ethnoecology of the interchange of wild and weedy plants and mushrooms in Phurépecha markets of Mexico: economic motives of biotic resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farfán-Heredia, Berenice; Casas, Alejandro; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; García-Frapolli, Eduardo; Castilleja, Aída

    2018-01-15

    Interactions between societies and nature are regulated by complex systems of beliefs, symbolism, customs, and worldviews (kosmos), ecological knowledge (corpus), and management strategies and practices (praxis), which are constructed as product of experiences and communication of people throughout time. These aspects influence social relations, life strategies, and cultural identity, and all of them in turn influence and are influenced by local and regional patterns of interchange. In this study, we analyze the interchange of wild and weedy plants and mushrooms in traditional markets of the Phurépecha region of Mexico. Particularly, the social relations constructed around the interchange of these products; how knowledge, cultural values, and ecological factors influence and are influenced by interchange; and how all these factors influence the type and intensity of biotic resources management. We studied three main traditional markets of the Phurépecha region of Michoacán, Mexico, through 140 visits to markets and 60 semi-structured interviews to sellers of wild and weedy plants and mushrooms. In nearly 2 years, we carried out 80 visits and 30 interviews in the "Barter Market", 20 visits and 15 interviews in the "Phurépecha Tiánguis", and 40 visits and 15 interviews to the "Municipal Market". We documented information about the spaces of interchange that form the markets, the types of interchange occurring there, the cultural and economic values of the resources studied, the environmental units that are sources of such resources, the activities associated to resources harvesting and, particularly, the management techniques practiced to ensure or increase their availability. We analyzed the relations between the amounts of products interchanged, considered as pressures on the resources; the perception of their abundance or scarcity, considered as the magnitude of risk in relation to the pressures referred to; and the management types as response to pressures

  4. Simulating water markets with transaction costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. This article was corrected on 13 JUN 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

  5. Perception, Price and Preference: Consumption and Protection of Wild Animals Used in Traditional Medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Jiang, Zhigang; Fang, Hongxia; Li, Chunwang; Mi, Aizi; Chen, Jing; Zhang, Xiaowei; Cui, Shaopeng; Chen, Daiqiang; Ping, Xiaoge; Li, Feng; Li, Chunlin; Tang, Songhua; Luo, Zhenhua; Zeng, Yan; Meng, Zhibin

    2016-01-01

    A wide array of wildlife species, including many animals, are used in traditional medicines across many medicinal systems, including in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). Due to over-exploitation and habitat loss, the populations of many animals commonly used in TCM have declined and are unable to meet market demand. A number of measures have been taken to try to reduce the impact that this large and growing market for TCM may have on wild animal species. Consumer preferences and behavior are known to play an important role in the consumption and protection of wild animals used in traditional medicine, and thus are likely to be an important factor in the success of many of these mechanisms—particularly given the significant percentage of TCMs that are over-the-counter products (access to which is not mediated by practitioners). In this study we conducted questionnaires and designed stated preference experiments embodying different simulation scenarios using a random sample of the population in Beijing to elicit individuals’ knowledge, perceptions and preferences toward wild or farmed animal materials and their substitutes used in traditional Chinese medicine. We found that respondents had a stated preference for wild materials over farm-raised and other alternatives because they believe that the effectiveness of wild-sourced materials is more credible than that of other sources. However, we also found that, although respondents used TCM products, they had a poor understanding of the function or composition of either traditional Chinese medicines or proprietary Chinese medicines (PCM), and paid little attention to the composition of products when making purchasing decisions. Furthermore, awareness of the need for species protection, or “conservation consciousness” was found to play an important role in willingness to accept substitutions for wild animal materials, while traditional animal medicinal materials (TAMs) derived from well-known endangered species

  6. Perception, Price and Preference: Consumption and Protection of Wild Animals Used in Traditional Medicine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Liu

    Full Text Available A wide array of wildlife species, including many animals, are used in traditional medicines across many medicinal systems, including in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM. Due to over-exploitation and habitat loss, the populations of many animals commonly used in TCM have declined and are unable to meet market demand. A number of measures have been taken to try to reduce the impact that this large and growing market for TCM may have on wild animal species. Consumer preferences and behavior are known to play an important role in the consumption and protection of wild animals used in traditional medicine, and thus are likely to be an important factor in the success of many of these mechanisms--particularly given the significant percentage of TCMs that are over-the-counter products (access to which is not mediated by practitioners. In this study we conducted questionnaires and designed stated preference experiments embodying different simulation scenarios using a random sample of the population in Beijing to elicit individuals' knowledge, perceptions and preferences toward wild or farmed animal materials and their substitutes used in traditional Chinese medicine. We found that respondents had a stated preference for wild materials over farm-raised and other alternatives because they believe that the effectiveness of wild-sourced materials is more credible than that of other sources. However, we also found that, although respondents used TCM products, they had a poor understanding of the function or composition of either traditional Chinese medicines or proprietary Chinese medicines (PCM, and paid little attention to the composition of products when making purchasing decisions. Furthermore, awareness of the need for species protection, or "conservation consciousness" was found to play an important role in willingness to accept substitutions for wild animal materials, while traditional animal medicinal materials (TAMs derived from well

  7. Perception, Price and Preference: Consumption and Protection of Wild Animals Used in Traditional Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Jiang, Zhigang; Fang, Hongxia; Li, Chunwang; Mi, Aizi; Chen, Jing; Zhang, Xiaowei; Cui, Shaopeng; Chen, Daiqiang; Ping, Xiaoge; Li, Feng; Li, Chunlin; Tang, Songhua; Luo, Zhenhua; Zeng, Yan; Meng, Zhibin

    2016-01-01

    A wide array of wildlife species, including many animals, are used in traditional medicines across many medicinal systems, including in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). Due to over-exploitation and habitat loss, the populations of many animals commonly used in TCM have declined and are unable to meet market demand. A number of measures have been taken to try to reduce the impact that this large and growing market for TCM may have on wild animal species. Consumer preferences and behavior are known to play an important role in the consumption and protection of wild animals used in traditional medicine, and thus are likely to be an important factor in the success of many of these mechanisms--particularly given the significant percentage of TCMs that are over-the-counter products (access to which is not mediated by practitioners). In this study we conducted questionnaires and designed stated preference experiments embodying different simulation scenarios using a random sample of the population in Beijing to elicit individuals' knowledge, perceptions and preferences toward wild or farmed animal materials and their substitutes used in traditional Chinese medicine. We found that respondents had a stated preference for wild materials over farm-raised and other alternatives because they believe that the effectiveness of wild-sourced materials is more credible than that of other sources. However, we also found that, although respondents used TCM products, they had a poor understanding of the function or composition of either traditional Chinese medicines or proprietary Chinese medicines (PCM), and paid little attention to the composition of products when making purchasing decisions. Furthermore, awareness of the need for species protection, or "conservation consciousness" was found to play an important role in willingness to accept substitutions for wild animal materials, while traditional animal medicinal materials (TAMs) derived from well-known endangered species, such

  8. Market Garden: a Simulation Environment for Research and User Experience in Smart Grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.J. Liefers (Bart); F.N. Claessen (Felix); E.J. Pauwels (Eric); P.A.N. Bosman (Peter); J.A. La Poutré (Han)

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractMarket Garden is a scalable research environment and demonstration tool, in which market mechanisms for smart energy systems and the interaction between end users, traders, system operators, and markets can be simulated. Users can create scenarios in a user-friendly editor in which a

  9. Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

    1979-01-01

    An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

  10. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo

    2015-01-01

    The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators...... have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models......, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform...

  11. Analysis of Strategic Wind Power Participation in Energy Market using MASCEM simulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soares, Tiago; Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago

    2015-01-01

    offering strategy for wind power plants to participate in both energy and ancillary services markets. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is used to simulate and validate the impact of wind power plants in market equilibrium. A case study based on real and recent data...... technology, suggests that wind power plants may participate in both energy and ancillary services markets with strategic behavior to improve their benefits. Thus, wind power generation with strategic behavior may have impact on market equilibrium and pricing. This paper evaluates the impact of a proportional...

  12. Simulation of current pricing-tendencies in the German electricity market for private consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Moritz; Sensfuss, Frank; Wietschel, Martin

    2007-01-01

    The German electricity market for private consumption is characterized by increasing prices and low participation of the consumers. This prompts us to investigate the interdependencies between the customers' engagement in the market and the suppliers' pricing strategies. Based on an analysis of the German retail market, an agent-based simulation model is developed. Whereas the behaviour of private customers is calibrated on field data, the suppliers learn to maximize profits with a feedback-learning heuristic. The simulation results show a tendency of rising prices, which are created without the assumption of tacit collusion among suppliers. We conclude that in Germany the current market pressure of private customers may not be a sufficient incentive for suppliers to lower electricity prices. (author)

  13. Incorporating Customer Lifetime Value into Marketing Simulation Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Hugh M.; Cannon, James N.; Schwaiger, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Notwithstanding the emerging prominence of customer lifetime value (CLV) and customer equity (CE) in the marketing literature during the past decade, virtually nothing has been done to address these concepts in the literature on simulation and gaming. This article addresses the failing, discussing the nature of CLV and CE and demonstrating how…

  14. The Simulation of Financial Markets by Agent-Based Mix-Game Models

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  15. Machine learning in sentiment reconstruction of the simulated stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goykhman, Mikhail; Teimouri, Ali

    2018-02-01

    In this paper we continue the study of the simulated stock market framework defined by the driving sentiment processes. We focus on the market environment driven by the buy/sell trading sentiment process of the Markov chain type. We apply the methodology of the Hidden Markov Models and the Recurrent Neural Networks to reconstruct the transition probabilities matrix of the Markov sentiment process and recover the underlying sentiment states from the observed stock price behavior. We demonstrate that the Hidden Markov Model can successfully recover the transition probabilities matrix for the hidden sentiment process of the Markov Chain type. We also demonstrate that the Recurrent Neural Network can successfully recover the hidden sentiment states from the observed simulated stock price time series.

  16. Fleet-Car Market PENetration Simulator: CPEN user's guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weil, R.

    1980-08-01

    The purpose of this manual is to assist prospective users in the understanding and execution of Fleet-Car Market PENetration Simulator (CPEN). CPEN is an interactive FORTRAN program whose purpose is to produce estimates of fleet-market-penetration rates of alternative passenger cars that can be described in terms of specific physical and economic attributes. The data were derived from questionnaires distributed to fleet operators affiliated with National Association of Fleet Administrators (NAFA). Besides the NAFA data, CPEN uses 48 variables that are interactively inserted. Complete data-input descriptions are included in the manual along with algorithm and application flowcharts. Examples of complete successful simulator runs are included for alternative program paths. A listing of the computer program and a glossary for CPEN are included.

  17. Electricity Markets Ontology to Support MASCEM's Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita

    2016-01-01

    the several issues related to these systems, including the involved players that act in this domain. To take better advantage of these systems, their integration is mandatory. The main contribution of this paper is the development of the Electricity Markets Ontology, which integrates the essential concepts...... necessary to interpret all the available information related to electricity markets, while enabling an easier cooperation and adequate communication between related systems. Additionally, the concepts and rules defined by this ontology can be extended and complemented according to the needs of other......Power systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. The increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Multi-agent based simulation platforms have proven to be a good option to study...

  18. Adding Badging to a Marketing Simulation to Increase Motivation to Learn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxton, M. Kim

    2015-01-01

    Badging has become a popular tool for obtaining social recognition for personal accomplishments. This innovation describes a way to add badging to a marketing simulation to increase student motivation to achieve the simulation's goals. Assessments indicate that badging both motivates students to perform better and helps explain students' perceived…

  19. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  20. Market Penetration Simulation of Hydrogen Powered Vehicles in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eunju Jun; Yong Hoon, Jeong; Soon Heung, Chang

    2006-01-01

    As oil price being boosted, hydrogen has been considered to be a strong candidate for the future energy carrier along with electricity. Although hydrogen can be produced by many energy sources, carbon-free sources such as nuclear and renewable energy may be ideal ones due to their environmental friendliness. For the analysis of hydrogen economy, the cost and market penetration of various end-use technologies are the most important factors in production and consumer side, respectively. Particularly, hydrogen powered vehicle is getting more interests as fuel cell technologies are developed. In this paper, the hydrogen powered vehicle penetration into the transportation market is simulated. A system dynamic code, Vensim, was utilized to simulate the dynamics in the transportation, assuming various types of vehicle such as gasoline, hybrid electricity and hydrogen powered. Market shares of each vehicle are predicted by using currently available data. The result showed that hydrogen era will not be bright as we think. To reach the era of hydrogen fuel cell cost should be reduced dramatically. And if the hydrogen cost which includes both operating and capital cost reaches to a $0.16 per kilometer, hydrogen portion can be a 50 percent in the transportation sector. However, if strong policy or subsidy can be given, the result will be changed. [1] (authors)

  1. Evaluation of CO2 free electricity trading market in Japan by multi-agent simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sichao, Kan; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Yamaji, Kenji

    2010-01-01

    As of November 2008, a new market, the CO 2 free electricity market, started pilot trading within the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX). The electricity in this market comes from renewable resources, nuclear or fossil thermal power with CDM credits. The demanders of the CO 2 free electricity are supposed to be the power companies with high emission rates. In this paper, we analyzed the effects of the new market by using a multi-agent based model to simulate the markets. From our simulation results, we found that the demander, under strict CO 2 emission regulations, tends to buy more electricity from the new CO 2 free market even though the price of this market is higher than that of the normal power exchange market. Suppliers with hydro or nuclear power plants only sell their electricity to the CO 2 free market, and suppliers with coal power plants also enter this market (with CDM credits). The media and peak demands in the normal market are met mainly by electricity from LNG power plants. We also compared the results from the multi-agent approach with those from the least-cost planning approach and found that the results of the two methods were similar. (author)

  2. DEMAND FOR WILD BLUEBERRIES AT FARM AND PROCESSOR LEVELS

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Hsiang-Tai; Peavey, Stephanie R.; Kezis, Alan S.

    2000-01-01

    The wild blueberry crop harvested in Maine and eastern Canada has increased considerably in recent years. The purpose of this study is to understand the recent trends in demand for wild blueberries with particular attention to the effects of production and the marketing of wild and cultivated blueberries. A price response model was developed to analyze farm-gate price and the processor price, using annual data from 1978 through 1997. Key explanatory variables in the model include quantity of ...

  3. Modeling and analysis of a decentralized electricity market: An integrated simulation/optimization approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarıca, Kemal; Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan; Or, Ilhan

    2012-01-01

    In this study, a model is developed to investigate the implications of an hourly day-ahead competitive power market on generator profits, electricity prices, availability and supply security. An integrated simulation/optimization approach is employed integrating a multi-agent simulation model with two alternative optimization models. The simulation model represents interactions between power generator, system operator, power user and power transmitter agents while the network flow optimization model oversees and optimizes the electricity flows, dispatches generators based on two alternative approaches used in the modeling of the underlying transmission network: a linear minimum cost network flow model and a non-linear alternating current optimal power flow model. Supply, demand, transmission, capacity and other technological constraints are thereby enforced. The transmission network, on which the scenario analyses are carried out, includes 30 bus, 41 lines, 9 generators, and 21 power users. The scenarios examined in the analysis cover various settings of transmission line capacities/fees, and hourly learning algorithms. Results provide insight into key behavioral and structural aspects of a decentralized electricity market under network constraints and reveal the importance of using an AC network instead of a simplified linear network flow approach. -- Highlights: ► An agent-based simulation model with an AC transmission environment with a day-ahead market. ► Physical network parameters have dramatic effects over price levels and stability. ► Due to AC nature of transmission network, adaptive agents have more local market power than minimal cost network flow. ► Behavior of the generators has significant effect over market price formation, as pointed out by bidding strategies. ► Transmission line capacity and fee policies are found to be very effective in price formation in the market.

  4. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  5. Incremental Design of Perishable Goods Markets through Multi-Agent Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuo Miyashita

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In current markets of perishable goods such as fish and vegetables, sellers are typically in a weak bargaining position, since perishable products cannot be stored for long without losing their value. To avoid the risk of spoiling products, sellers have few alternatives other than selling their goods at the prices offered by buyers in the markets. The market mechanism needs to be reformed in order to resolve unfairness between sellers and buyers. Double auction markets, which collect bids from both sides of the trades and match them, allow sellers to participate proactively in the price-making process. However, in perishable goods markets, sellers have an incentive to discount their bid gradually for fear of spoiling unsold goods. Buyers can take advantage of sellers’ discounted bids to increase their profit by strategic bidding. To solve the problem, we incrementally improve an online double auction mechanism for perishable goods markets, which promotes buyers’ truthful bidding by penalizing their failed bids without harming their individual rationality. We evaluate traders’ behavior under several market conditions using multi-agent simulations and show that the developed mechanism achieves fair resource allocation among traders.

  6. Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

    2001-06-01

    The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

  7. Market conduct and performance of wild and semi-wild food plants ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Jacob Agea

    2013-06-12

    Jun 12, 2013 ... is, selection by people because of culturally defined qualities of the ... and Cutler, 1966). Indeed the importance and complexity of food marketing .... less than 18 years old and the rest were aged between. 18 and 36 years.

  8. The influence of interactions between market segmentation strategy and competition on organizational performance. A simulation study.

    OpenAIRE

    Dolnicar, Sara; Freitag, Roman

    2003-01-01

    A computer simulation study is conducted to explore the interaction of alternative segmentation strategies and the competitiveness of the market environment, a goal that can neither be tackled by purely analytic approaches nor is sufficient and undistorted real market data available to deduct findings in an empirical manner. The fundamental idea of the simulation is to increase competition in the artificial marketplace and to study the influence of segmentation strategy and varying market con...

  9. The Simulation of Financial Markets by an Agent-Based Mix-Game Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  10. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets : a literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, F.; Genoese, M.; Genoese, M.; Most, D.

    2007-01-01

    The electricity sector in Europe and North America is undergoing considerable changes as a result of deregulation, issues related to climate change, and the integration of renewable resources within the electricity grid. This article reviewed agent-based simulation methods of analyzing electricity markets. The paper provided an analysis of research currently being conducted on electricity market designs and examined methods of modelling agent decisions. Methods of coupling long term and short term decisions were also reviewed. Issues related to single and multiple market analysis methods were discussed, as well as different approaches to integrating agent-based models with models of other commodities. The integration of transmission constraints within agent-based models was also discussed, and methods of measuring market efficiency were evaluated. Other topics examined in the paper included approaches to integrating investment decisions, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) trading, and renewable support schemes. It was concluded that agent-based models serve as a test bed for the electricity sector, and will help to provide insights for future policy decisions. 74 refs., 6 figs

  11. Energy-only and capacity markets and the economics of the power sector in a simulation of the Northwest European power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hers, Sebastiaan; Redl, Christian; Wijk, Pieter van der; Slot, Thijs

    2013-01-01

    Rising concern with regard to generation adequacy and the ability of energy-only electricity markets to deliver required investments induced debates, regulatory interventions, and consideration of new market mechanisms in several EU member states. Results based on model simulations concerning guaranteed supply safety are presented. (orig.)

  12. Energy-only and capacity markets and the economics of the power sector in a simulation of the Northwest European power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hers, Sebastiaan; Redl, Christian; Wijk, Pieter van der; Slot, Thijs [DNV KEMA Energy and Sustainability, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2013-11-01

    Rising concern with regard to generation adequacy and the ability of energy-only electricity markets to deliver required investments induced debates, regulatory interventions, and consideration of new market mechanisms in several EU member states. Results based on model simulations concerning guaranteed supply safety are presented. (orig.)

  13. Consumer perception versus scientific evidence of farmed and wild fish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verbeke, Wim; Sioen, Isabelle; Brunsø, Karen

    2007-01-01

    . Primary data were collected through a consumer survey (April 2003) and focus group discussions (May 2004) with Belgian consumers. The majority of the consumer sample reported no perceived differences between farmed versus wild fish. However, mean perception scores were slightly in favour of wild fish......The increasing number of marketable fish being supplied from aquaculture is a response to the increasing demand for healthy food and is filling the gap left by depleting natural fish stocks. Little is known about the awareness and perception of the consumer in terms of farmed fish versus fish from...... capture fisheries. The consumer's subjective point of view is of overriding importance for the production system and product acceptance as well as for future market success. In this paper consumer perception in Belgium is explored and compared against scientific evidence of farmed versus wild fish...

  14. Wild-Caught Versus Farmed Fish – Consumer Perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomić Marina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We have limited knowledge of determinants of consumer preferences for wild-caught versus farmed-raised fish, so this work aims to investigate the impact of sociodemographics, habits and frequency of fresh fish consumption, such as involvement in cooking, on the preferences for wild versus farmed fish. A survey was done on a sample of 1151 fish consumers in Croatia. Results showed that female, older consumers, consumers with higher income and those living in coastal parts of Croatia give higher preferences for wild fish and they detect differences between the taste of wild and farmed fish. Consumers with higher levels of habits of fresh fish consumption, who eat fresh fish often and are more involved in cooking, prefer wild-caught fish. These findings provide valuable information for the aquaculture sector, especially for planning marketing strategies for the promotion of farmed fish.

  15. An Evaluation of the Synergistic Simulation of the Federal Open Market Committee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Robin Lynn; Amsler, Christine E.

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) simulation employed three techniques: case study, role playing, and model building, in order to acquaint college students studying money and banking with the creation of monetary policy. The specific goals of the FOMC simulation were: (1) to familiarize students with the data used in monetary policy…

  16. EvoWild: a demosimulator about wild life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Palacio Gayoso

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available During the last years we can see how AI (Artificial Intelligence is reappearing because of technological improvements. These improvements make possible the management of large groups of information with acceptable reply times.On the other hand, cost reductions in technology make possible that an investigation field like AI becomes to an inversion field closer to scale economies, that’s why it’ll be economically profitable to invert in this type of applications.One of the fastest consequences is the AI implantation in a big amount of devices of our environment, cell telephones, palms and of course, in the video game industry.This is the reason that took us to develop EvoWild, a simulation about wild life that has video game format and tools but at the same time implements AI algorithms like genetic algorithms and reasoning based in cases.

  17. Characterisation of wild rabbit commercial game farms in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro González-Redondo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to characterise the wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus commercial game farms in Spain using variables related to structure, management and marketing. To this end, a structured survey was administered in 2009 to 21 privately-owned farms. This subsector was an average age of 13. The average size of the breeding stock of the farms was 431 does and 64 bucks. Eighty-five percent of the farms kept all or part of the breeding stock in cages and 38.1% used artificial insemination. All the farms carried out breeder self-replacement, 4.8% by buying wild rabbits from other farms, whereas 38.1% captured wild rabbits for this purpose. Nineteen percent of the wild rabbit game farms also produced other game species, mainly red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa, pheasant (Phasianus colchicus and quail (Coturnix coturnix. Fourteen percent of the farms supplied wild rabbits to be used as prey to be released in programmes for the conservation of endangered predators, and 38.1% supplied breeding rabbits to be used by other farms to replace culled animals. Eighty-six percent of the farms offered the service of transporting the animals from the farm to the hunting grounds to their clients, and 14.3% advised customers on how to successfully release and restock hunting grounds. Seventy-six percent of the farms marketed their products throughout Spain, and 38.1% exported wild rabbits to neighbouring countries, mainly Portugal and France. Forty-three percent of the farms advertised themselves in hunting magazines, 19.1% promoted themselves by attending livestock and game fairs, and 38.1% had their own websites. In conclusion, this alternative rabbit production system constitutes a well-established subsector in Spain, despite being only 2 decades old. It also seems that it has not yet reached its development maturity. It shows wide diversity in terms of farm size and structure, as well as marketing and promotional activities.

  18. Research on Simulation Requirements and Business Architecture of Automated Demand Response in Power Sales Side Market Liberalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yiqun; Zhou, Pengcheng; Zeng, Ming; Chen, Songsong

    2018-01-01

    With the gradual reform of the electricity market, the power sale side liberalization has become the focus of attention as the key task of reform. The open power market provides a good environment for DR (Demand Response). It is of great significance to research the simulation requirements and business architecture of ADR (Automatic Demand Response) in power sale side market liberalization. Firstly, this paper analyzes the simulation requirements of ADR. Secondly, it analyzes the influence factors that the business development of ADR from five aspects after power sale side market liberalization. Finally, Based on ADR technology support system, the business architecture of ADR after power sale side market liberalization is constructed.

  19. Simulating market dynamics: interactions between consumer psychology and social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Marco A; Jager, Wander

    2003-01-01

    Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or a few products, to markets with continual penetration of new and reintroduced products. In a previous article we explored the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation model. The main results indicated that the behavioral rules dominating the artificial consumer's decision making determine the resulting market dynamics, such as fashions, lock-in, and unstable renewal. Results also show the importance of psychological variables like social networks, preferences, and the need for identity to explain the dynamics of markets. In this article we extend this work in two directions. First, we will focus on a more systematic investigation of the effects of different network structures. The previous article was based on Watts and Strogatz's approach, which describes the small-world and clustering characteristics in networks. More recent research demonstrated that many large networks display a scale-free power-law distribution for node connectivity. In terms of market dynamics this may imply that a small proportion of consumers may have an exceptional influence on the consumptive behavior of others (hubs, or early adapters). We show that market dynamics is a self-organized property depending on the interaction between the agents' decision-making process (heuristics), the product characteristics (degree of satisfaction of unit of consumption, visibility), and the structure of interactions between agents (size of network and hubs in a social network).

  20. Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2011-01-01

    Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

  1. Machine concept optimization for pumped-storage plants through combined dispatch simulation for wholesale and reserve markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engels, Klaus; Harasta, Michaela; Braitsch, Werner; Moser, Albert; Schaefer, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    In Germany's energy markets of today, pumped-storage power plants offer excellent business opportunities due to their outstanding flexibility. However, the energy-economic simulation of pumped-storage plants, which is necessary to base the investment decision on a sound business case, is a highly complex matter since the plant's capacity must be optimized in a given plant portfolio and between two relevant markets: the scheduled wholesale and the reserve market. This mathematical optimization problem becomes even more complex when the question is raised as to which type of machine should be used for a pumped-storage new build option. For the first time, it has been proven possible to simulate the optimum dispatch of different pumped-storage machine concepts within two relevant markets - the scheduled wholesale and the reserve market - thereby greatly supporting the investment decision process. The methodology and findings of a cooperation study between E.ON and RWTH Aachen University in respect of the German pumped-storage extension project 'Waldeck 2+' are described, showing the latest development in dispatch simulation for generation portfolios. (authors)

  2. Effect of hunting awareness on wild game meat purchase behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Elena Marescotti

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Although wild game meat constitutes a sustainable and healthy alternative to conventional meat and hunting contributes to the control of game populations, international studies on consumer attitudes towards this type of meat are still limited and no previous research has been focused on the Italian population. For the development of successful marketing strategies and/or public policy intervention, the knowledge of consumers’ purchase behavior is a key factor. Among all the determinants that can influence the behavior of consumers of hunted wild game meat (i.e. animal welfare, sustainability, ecological food choice, product safety, nutritional quality, the consumers’ awareness of hunting activity and their perceptions of wild game meat assume a crucial role. Accordingly, in this paper an online survey on a sample of 741 Italian meat consumers has been conducted to investigate the relationship between consumers’ purchase behavior and their awareness of hunted game meat and hunting practices (chi-square test, F-test. Statistically significant differences were found among segments of consumers with different levels of wild game meat consumption frequency. The analysis shows that, as expected, the highest consumption level of wild game meat relates to the highest level of general awareness of wild game meat and hunting practices. Our findings are in line with previous literature, that links positive behaviors of consumers towards wild game meat and hunting to familiarity and experience with hunting and hunters. Nonetheless, the present study provides a deeper understanding of the Italian consumers’ attitudes and perceptions of wild game meat and could suggests policy guidelines for the development of future targeted marketing strategies.

  3. Towards a unified European electricity market: The contribution of data-mining to support realistic simulation studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Santos, Gabriel; Pereira, Ivo F.

    2014-01-01

    Worldwide electricity markets have been evolving into regional and even continental scales. The aim at an efficient use of renewable based generation in places where it exceeds the local needs is one of the main reasons. A reference case of this evolution is the European Electricity Market, where...... countries are connected, and several regional markets were created, each one grouping several countries, and supporting transactions of huge amounts of electrical energy. The continuous transformations electricity markets have been experiencing over the years create the need to use simulation platforms...... to support operators, regulators, and involved players for understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper focuses on demonstrating the advantage that real electricity markets data has for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts...

  4. The Paper Airplane Challenge: A Market Economy Simulation. Lesson Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Kimberly

    This lesson plan features a classroom simulation that helps students understand the characteristics of a market economic system. The lesson plan states a purpose; cites student objectives; suggests a time duration; lists materials needed; and details a step-by-step teaching procedure. The "Paper Airplane Challenge" handout is attached. (BT)

  5. Finite-size effects in Monte Carlo simulations of two stock market models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egenter, E.; Lux, T.; Stauffer, D.

    The microscopic market models of Kim-Markowitz and of Lux-Marchesi are simulated for varying number of investors. If this number goes to infinity, in some quantities nearly periodic oscillations occur.

  6. Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jungwoo Shin

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduced autonomous and connected vehicles equipped with emerging technologies are expected to change the automotive market. In this study, using stated preference (SP data collected from choice experiments conducted in Korea with a mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MDCEV, we analyzed how the advent of next-generation of vehicles with advanced vehicle technologies would affect consumer vehicle choices and usage patterns. Additionally, ex-ante market simulations and market segmentation analyses were conducted to provide specific management strategies for next-generation vehicles. The results showed that consumer preference structures of conventional and alternative fuel types primarily differed depending on whether they were drivers or non-drivers. Additionally, although the introduction of electric vehicles to the automobile market is expected to negatively affect the choice probability and mileage of other vehicles, it could have a positive influence on the probability of purchasing an existing conventional vehicle if advanced vehicle technologies are available.

  7. Simobiz-Simulation Tool to Study the Impact of Small Satellites in Mobile Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burlacu, M.-M.; Kohlenberg, J.; Prathaban, M.

    2008-08-01

    Interest in small satellites is growing fast world- wide. Businesses, governments, universities and other organizations around the world are starting their own small satellite programs. The surveys conducted by the space agencies and universities shows a promising increase in the use of small satellites for commercial applications. More number of operators offers or plans to offer mobile phone services by satellite. With the help of cost effective small satellite, mobile operators can be able to provide the services cheaper. Hence, it is always interesting to study the effect of low cost small satellite over the mobile market. In this article, we present SmartSim (Small Satellites Mobile Market Simulator) - the new module of Simobiz business simulation game, in which we have implemented two operators, a normal satellite operator and a nanosatellite operator, with specific terminals and services. Our main focus in this work is to understand the future market of small satellite in mobile telecommunication network.

  8. Industrial application trends and market perspectives for virtual reality and visual simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Valerio Netto

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to provide an overview of current market trends in industrial applications of VR (Virtual Reality and VisSim (visual simulation for the next few years. Several market studies recently undertaken are presented and commented. A profile of some companies that are starting to work with these technologies is provided, in an attempt to motivate Brazilian companies into the use of these new technologies by describing successful example applications undertaken by foreign companies.

  9. Oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets: Large-scale simulation and policy analysis using complementarity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, E. Udi

    This dissertation conducts research into the large-scale simulation of oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets. The dissertation has two parts. Part I is an examination of the structure and properties of several spatial, or network, equilibrium models of oligopolistic electricity markets formulated as mixed linear complementarity problems (LCP). Part II is a large-scale application of such models to the electricity system that encompasses most of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, the Eastern Interconnection. Part I consists of Chapters 1 to 6. The models developed in this part continue research into mixed LCP models of oligopolistic electricity markets initiated by Hobbs [67] and subsequently developed by Metzler [87] and Metzler, Hobbs and Pang [88]. Hobbs' central contribution is a network market model with Cournot competition in generation and a price-taking spatial arbitrage firm that eliminates spatial price discrimination by the Cournot firms. In one variant, the solution to this model is shown to be equivalent to the "no arbitrage" condition in a "pool" market, in which a Regional Transmission Operator optimizes spot sales such that the congestion price between two locations is exactly equivalent to the difference in the energy prices at those locations (commonly known as locational marginal pricing). Extensions to this model are presented in Chapters 5 and 6. One of these is a market model with a profit-maximizing arbitrage firm. This model is structured as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC), but due to the linearity of its constraints, can be solved as a mixed LCP. Part II consists of Chapters 7 to 12. The core of these chapters is a large-scale simulation of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection applying one of the Cournot competition with arbitrage models. This is the first oligopolistic equilibrium market model to encompass the full Eastern Interconnection with a realistic network representation (using

  10. Simulation of the influence of Danish cattle markets on a Foot-and-Mouth epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Lastein, D. B.; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    During the epidemic of Foot-and-Mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom in 2001, live animal markets had large influence on the spread of the disease. The culture of and behavior around markets are expected to be different between countries. During the last decade, the number of animals traded...... through markets in Denmark has decreased and only few cattle markets are left. The purpose of this study was to investigate, whether cattle markets would influence the duration, size and economic consequences of a potential FMD epidemic in Denmark. The spread of FMD was simulated using the stochastic...... included a larger area compared to scenarios without markets. Economic results will be described in the final paper. Markets can influence spread of other diseases as well. Little is known about the influence of markets on spread of other diseases. Even though FMD is more contagious than many other...

  11. Simulating GenCo bidding strategies in electricity markets with an agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Thimmapuram, Prakash R.; Yamakado, Malo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we use an agent-based simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze market power in electricity markets. We focus on the effect of congestion management on the ability of generating companies (GenCos) to raise prices beyond competitive levels. An 11-node test power system is used to compare a market design based on locational marginal pricing with a market design that uses system marginal pricing and congestion management by counter trading. Bidding strategies based on both physical and economic withholding are compared to a base case with production cost bidding. The results show that unilateral market power is exercised under both pricing mechanisms. However, the largest changes in consumer costs and GenCo profits due to strategic bidding occur under the locational marginal pricing scheme. The analysis also illustrates that agent-based modeling can contribute important insights into the complex interactions between the participants in transmission-constrained electricity markets. (Author)

  12. An integrated ant colony optimization approach to compare strategies of clearing market in electricity markets. Agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Maleki-Shoja, B.; Skandari, M.R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an innovative model of agent based simulation, based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm is proposed in order to compare three available strategies of clearing wholesale electricity markets, i.e. uniform, pay-as-bid, and generalized Vickrey rules. The supply side actors of the power market are modeled as adaptive agents who learn how to bid strategically to optimize their profit through indirect interaction with other actors of the market. The proposed model is proper for bidding functions with high number of dimensions and enables modelers to avoid curse of dimensionality as dimension grows. Test systems are then used to study the behavior of each pricing rule under different degrees of competition and heterogeneity. Finally, the pricing rules are comprehensively compared using different economic criteria such as average cleared price, efficiency of allocation, and price volatility. Also, principle component analysis (PCA) is used to rank and select the best price rule. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first study that uses ACO for assessing strategies of wholesale electricity market. (author)

  13. Colonization of wild potato plants by Streptomyces scabies

    Science.gov (United States)

    The bacterial pathogen Streptomyces scabies produces lesions on potato tubers, reducing their marketability and profitability. M6 and 524-8 are two closely related inbred diploid lines of the wild potato species Solanum chacoense. After testing in both field and greenhouse assays, it was found that ...

  14. Generation reliability assessment in oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haroonabadi, H.; Haghifam, M.R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper addressed issues regarding power generation reliability assessment (HLI) in deregulated power pool markets. Most HLI reliability evaluation methods are based on the loss of load (LOLE) approach which is among the most suitable indices to describe the level of generation reliability. LOLE refers to the time in which load is greater than the amount of available generation. While most reliability assessments deal only with power system constraints, this study considered HLI reliability assessment in an oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It evaluated the sensitivity of the reliability index to different reserve margins and future margins. The reliability index was determined by intersecting the offer and demand curves of power plants and comparing them to other parameters. The paper described the fundamentals of an oligopoly power pool market and proposed an algorithm for HLI reliability assessment for such a market. The proposed method was assessed on the IEEE-Reliability Test System with satisfactory results. In all cases, generation reliability indices were evaluated with different reserve margins and various load levels. 19 refs., 7 figs., 1 appendix

  15. Understanding price discovery in interconnected markets: Generalized Langevin process approach and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenck, Natalya A.; Horvath, Philip A.; Sinha, Amit K.

    2018-02-01

    While the literature on price discovery process and information flow between dominant and satellite market is exhaustive, most studies have applied an approach that can be traced back to Hasbrouck (1995) or Gonzalo and Granger (1995). In this paper, however, we propose a Generalized Langevin process with asymmetric double-well potential function, with co-integrated time series and interconnected diffusion processes to model the information flow and price discovery process in two, a dominant and a satellite, interconnected markets. A simulated illustration of the model is also provided.

  16. Agent-based Modeling Simulation Analysis on the Regulation of Institutional Investor's Encroachment Behavior in Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study explores the effective regulation of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market. Given the theoretical and practical importance, the present study examines the effect of the self-adaptive regulation strategy (adjusting the regulation factors such as punishment and the probability of investigating successfully in time for the sake of the small & medium-sized investor protection.Design/methodology/approach: This study was carried out through game theory and agent-based modeling simulation. Firstly, a dynamic game model was built to search the core factors of regulation and the equilibrium paths. Secondly, an agent-based modeling simulation model was built in Swarm to extend the game model. Finally, a simulation experiment (using virtual parameter values was performed to examine the effect of regulation strategy obtained form game model.Findings: The results of this study showed that the core factors of avoiding the institutional investor's encroachment behavior are the punishment and the probability of investigating successfully of the regulator. The core factors embody as the self-adaptability and the capability of regulator. If the regulator can adjust the regulation factors in time, the illegal behaviors will be avoided effectively.Research limitations/implications: The simulation experiment in this paper was performed with virtual parameter values. Although the results of experiment showed the effect of self-adaptive regulation, there are still some differences between simulation experiment and real market situation.Originality/value: The purpose of this study is to investigate an effective regulation strategy of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market in order to maintain market order and protect the benefits of investors. Base on the game model and simulation model, a simulation experiment was preformed and the result showed that the self-adaptive regulation would be effective

  17. Simulation based decision support for strategic communication and marketing management concerning the consumer introduction of smart energy meters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen STRAGIER

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Communication and marketing professionals make strategic decisions in highly complex and dynamic contexts. These decisions are highly uncertain on the outcome and process level when, for example, consumer behaviour is at stake. Decision support systems can provide insights in these levels of uncertainty and the professional process of decision making. However, literature describing decision support tools for strategic communication and marketing management that provide clear insights in uncertainty levels is lacking. This study therefore aims at developing a consumer behaviour simulation module as an important element of such a future decision support tool. The consumer behaviour simulation we propose in this paper is based on data collected from a survey among 386 households with which a behavioural change model was calibrated. We show how various decision scenarios for strategic communication and marketing challenges can be explored and how such a simulation based decision support system can facilitate strategic communication and marketing management concerning the introduction of a smart energy meter.

  18. Toward a Theory of Entrepreneurial Rents: a Simulation of the Market Process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keyhani, M; Levesque, M.; Madhok, A.

    2015-01-01

    While strategy theory relies heavily on equilibrium theories of economic rents such as Ricardian and monopoly rents, we do not yet have a comprehensive theory of disequilibrium or entrepreneurial rents. We use cooperative game theory to structure computer simulations of the market process in which

  19. Use of femur bone density to segregate wild from farmed Dybowski's frog (Rana dybowskii).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shu Hui; Huang, Xiao Ming; Xia, Rui; Xu, Yan Chun; Dahmer, Thomas D

    2011-04-15

    Wildlife has been utilized by humans throughout history and demand continues to grow today. Farming of wildlife can supplement the supply of wild-harvested wildlife products and, in theory, can reduce pressure on free-ranging populations. However, poached wildlife products frequently enter legal markets where they are fraudulently sold as farmed wildlife products. To effectively close this illegal trade in wild-captured wildlife, there is a need to discriminate wild products from farmed products. Because of the strong market demand for wild-captured frog meat and the resulting strong downward pressure on wild populations, we undertook research to develop a method to discriminate wild from farmed Dybowski's frog (Rana dybowskii) based on femur bone density. We measured femur bone density (D(f)) as the ratio of bone mass to bone volume. D(f) of wild frogs revealed a slightly increasing linear trend with increasing age (R(2)=0.214 in males and R(2)=0.111 in females, p=0.000). Wild males and wild females of age classes from 2 to ≥ 5 years had similar D(f) values. In contrast, 2-year-old farmed frogs showed significantly higher D(f) values (p=0.000) among males (mean D(f)=0.623 ± 0.011 g/ml, n=32) than females (mean D(f)=0.558 ± 0.011 g/ml, n=27). For both sexes, D(f) of wild frogs was significantly higher than that of farmed frogs (p=0.000). Among males, 87.5% (28 of 32 individuals) of farmed frogs were correctly identified as farmed frogs and 86.3% (69 of 80 individuals) of wild frogs were correctly identified as wild frogs. These results suggest that femur bone density is one reliable tool for discriminating between wild and farmed Dybowski's frog. This study also highlights a novel strategy with explicit forensic potential to discriminate wild from captive bred wildlife species. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Simulations for the learning in the Colombian electric market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franco, J.C; Garzon, M.F; Camargo, L.A; Dyner, I; Smith, R; Bedoya, L; Montoya, S; Larsen, Eric R.

    1999-01-01

    In the measure that has been developed the liberalization of the energy markets in Colombia, the companies of the country have been forced to take actions that help them to confront the atmosphere generated to the interior of the industry. The new conditions have impelled to the companies to introduce transformations, including changes in terms of corporate mission, culture of the organization, and support tools to the decision and information systems. In this new developed market, which has implied the expedition of hundred of rules difficult to understand for the current and potential agents, the training of its directive could be a strategy. This can be the case in which the acting of a company of the discovery of new opportunities and in defending of the aggressive of its competitors. Interconnection Electric CORP. (ISA), together with the National University are considering the design of programs of training for electricity trades, using the concept of MICROMUNDOS, with the purpose of qualifying the new generation of directive of the sector. This article describes the underlying rationality of a flight simulator (MICROMUNDO) and the initial specifications of the pattern to advise such programs of training in the market of the electric power in Colombia

  1. Customer social network affects marketing strategy: A simulation analysis based on competitive diffusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Rui; Wu, Jiawen; Du, Helen S.

    2017-03-01

    To explain the competition phenomenon and results between QQ and MSN (China) in the Chinese instant messaging software market, this paper developed a new population competition model based on customer social network. The simulation results show that the firm whose product with greater network externality effect will gain more market share than its rival when the same marketing strategy is used. The firm with the advantage of time, derived from the initial scale effect will become more competitive than its rival when facing a group of common penguin customers within a social network, verifying the winner-take-all phenomenon in this case.

  2. Emotional Engagement and Active Learning in a Marketing Simulation: A Review and Exploratory Study

    OpenAIRE

    Kear, Andrew; Bown, G Robin

    2015-01-01

    Abstract: This paper considers the role of emotional engagement during the use of a simulation. This is placed in the context of learning about marketing. The literature highlights questions of engagement and interactivity that are entailed in the use of these simulations. It is observed here that both the anticipation of and the process of engagement with the simulation generate emotional responses. The evidence of emotional anticipation was collected through the use of vignettes and a short...

  3. Factors Contributing to Cognitive Absorption and Grounded Learning Effectiveness in a Competitive Business Marketing Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David Scott; Underwood, James, III; Thakur, Ramendra

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to establish a pedagogical positioning of a business marketing simulation as a grounded learning teaching tool and empirically assess the dimensions of cognitive absorption related to grounded learning effectiveness in an iterative business simulation environment. The method/design and sample consisted of a field study survey…

  4. Improving firm performance in out-of-equilibrium, deregulated markets using feedback simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gary, S.; Larsen, E.R.

    2000-01-01

    Deregulation has reshaped the utility sector in many countries around the world. Organisations in these deregulated industries must adopt new polices which guide strategic decisions, in an uncertain and unfamiliar environment, that determine the short- and long-term fate of their companies. Traditional economic equilibrium models do not adequately address the issues facing these organisations in the shift towards deregulated market competition. Equilibrium assumptions break down in the out-of-equilibrium transition to competitive markets, and therefore different underpinning assumptions must be adopted in order to guide management in these periods. Simulation models incorporating information feedback through behavioural policies fill the void left by equilibrium models and support strategic policy analysis in out-of-equilibrium markets. As an example, we present a feedback simulation model developed to examine firm and industry level performance consequences of new generation capacity investment policies in the deregulated UK electricity sector. The model explicitly captures behavioural decision polices of boundedly rational managers and avoids equilibrium assumptions. Such models are essential to help managers evaluate the performance impact of various strategic policies in environments in which disequilibrum behaviour dominates. (Author)

  5. Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, A.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity. The end result would be major swings in market prices as the industry moves through the phases of a construction cycle. This paper begins with some background on why these cycles should be taken seriously as we write the rules for a restructured electricity industry. It uses computer simulation to learn that cycles could emerge if the western states adopt the market rules used in California. Construction cycles are a potentially serious problem, but they are not inevitable. This paper uses computer simulation to show that cycles could be dampened substantially by introducing a constant capacity payment along side of the market clearing price for energy. The paper concludes with an examination of the consumer impacts of a constant capacity payment. Wholesale consumers would experience higher costs in the short run, but lower energy prices would nullify the impact of capacity payments in the long run. Retail consumers would not necessarily face higher costs in the short run because of a reduction in charges for recovery of stranded costs. (author)

  6. Building a Market Simulation to Teach Business Process Analysis: Effects of Realism on Engaged Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jacob; Abdullah, Ira

    2018-01-01

    The emphases of student involvement and meaningful engagement in the learner-centered education model have created a new paradigm in an effort to generate a more engaging learning environment. This study examines the success of using different simulation platforms in creating a market simulation to teach business processes in the accounting…

  7. Agent-based simulation of a financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raberto, Marco; Cincotti, Silvano; Focardi, Sergio M.; Marchesi, Michele

    2001-10-01

    This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a given finite portfolio of assets. There is no money-creation process; the total available cash is conserved in time. In each period, agents make random buy and sell decisions that are constrained by available resources, subject to clustering, and dependent on the volatility of previous periods. The model proposed herein is able to reproduce the leptokurtic shape of the probability density of log price returns and the clustering of volatility. Implemented using extreme programming and object-oriented technology, the simulator is a flexible computational experimental facility that can find applications in both academic and industrial research projects.

  8. Numerical Simulation of Entropy Growth for a Nonlinear Evolutionary Model of Random Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Keshtkar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this communication, the generalized continuous economic model for random markets is revisited. In this model for random markets, agents trade by pairs and exchange their money in a random and conservative way. They display the exponential wealth distribution as asymptotic equilibrium, independently of the effectiveness of the transactions and of the limitation of the total wealth. In the current work, entropy of mentioned model is defined and then some theorems on entropy growth of this evolutionary problem are given. Furthermore, the entropy increasing by simulation on some numerical examples is verified.

  9. Characterization of Natural and Simulated Herbivory on Wild Soybean (Glycine soja Seib. et Zucc. for Use in Ecological Risk Assessment of Insect Protected Soybean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidetoshi Goto

    Full Text Available Insect-protected soybean (Glycine max (L. Merr. was developed to protect against foliage feeding by certain Lepidopteran insects. The assessment of potential consequences of transgene introgression from soybean to wild soybean (Glycine soja Seib. et Zucc. is required as one aspect of the environmental risk assessment (ERA in Japan. A potential hazard of insect-protected soybean may be hypothesized as transfer of a trait by gene flow to wild soybean and subsequent reduction in foliage feeding by Lepidopteran insects that result in increased weediness of wild soybean in Japan. To assess this potential hazard two studies were conducted. A three-year survey of wild soybean populations in Japan was conducted to establish basic information on foliage damage caused by different herbivores. When assessed across all populations and years within each prefecture, the total foliage from different herbivores was ≤ 30%, with the lowest levels of defoliation (< 2% caused by Lepidopteran insects. A separate experiment using five levels of simulated defoliation (0%, 10%, 25%, 50% and 100% was conducted to assess the impact on pod and seed production and time to maturity of wild soybean. The results indicated that there was no decrease in wild soybean plants pod or seed number or time to maturity at defoliation rates up to 50%. The results from these experiments indicate that wild soybean is not limited by lepidopteran feeding and has an ability to compensate for defoliation levels observed in nature. Therefore, the potential hazard to wild soybean from the importation of insect-protected soybean for food and feed into Japan is negligible.

  10. Simulation based on intelligent agents of the process of negotiation of the electric power market in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastrana David, Maria Marcela; Guzman Luna, Jaime A; Ovalle Carranza, Demetrio Arturo

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is describing the phases of analyzing, designing, building and validation of a multi-agent system to simulate the negotiation process of Colombian electric energy market. This project intent to exhibit advantages of multi-agent systems to model simulation processes. Analysis and design phases use MAS-common KADS rnethodology, which is one of the well known for agent-based system modeling. For this purpose, it is modeled the part of negotiation process among market human agents, which is representing by energy buying and selling among energy generators, commercial agents, and consumers

  11. MASM: a market architecture for sensor management in distributed sensor networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanath, Avasarala; Mullen, Tracy; Hall, David; Garga, Amulya

    2005-03-01

    Rapid developments in sensor technology and its applications have energized research efforts towards devising a firm theoretical foundation for sensor management. Ubiquitous sensing, wide bandwidth communications and distributed processing provide both opportunities and challenges for sensor and process control and optimization. Traditional optimization techniques do not have the ability to simultaneously consider the wildly non-commensurate measures involved in sensor management in a single optimization routine. Market-oriented programming provides a valuable and principled paradigm to designing systems to solve this dynamic and distributed resource allocation problem. We have modeled the sensor management scenario as a competitive market, wherein the sensor manager holds a combinatorial auction to sell the various items produced by the sensors and the communication channels. However, standard auction mechanisms have been found not to be directly applicable to the sensor management domain. For this purpose, we have developed a specialized market architecture MASM (Market architecture for Sensor Management). In MASM, the mission manager is responsible for deciding task allocations to the consumers and their corresponding budgets and the sensor manager is responsible for resource allocation to the various consumers. In addition to having a modified combinatorial winner determination algorithm, MASM has specialized sensor network modules that address commensurability issues between consumers and producers in the sensor network domain. A preliminary multi-sensor, multi-target simulation environment has been implemented to test the performance of the proposed system. MASM outperformed the information theoretic sensor manager in meeting the mission objectives in the simulation experiments.

  12. Solving Constrained Consumption-Investment Problems by Simulation of Artificial Market Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bick, Björn; Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Utility-maximizing consumption and investment strategies in closed form are unknown for realistic settings involving portfolio constraints, incomplete markets, and potentially a high number of state variables. Standard numerical methods are hard to implement in such cases. We propose a numerical...... procedure that combines the abstract idea of artificial, unconstrained complete markets, well-known closed-form solutions in affine or quadratic return models, straightforward Monte Carlo simulation, and a standard iterative optimization routine. Our method provides an upper bound on the wealth......-equivalent loss compared to the unknown optimal strategy, and it facilitates our understanding of the economic forces at play by building on closed-form expressions for the strategies considered. We illustrate and test our method on the life-cycle problem of an individual who receives unspanned labor income...

  13. Wild-harvested venison yields and sharing by Michigan deer hunters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goguen, Amber D.; Riley, Shawn J.; Organ, John F.; Rudolph, Brent A.

    2018-01-01

    An increased societal focus on wildlife as food and recent policy deliberations regarding legal markets for wild-harvested meat are encouraging wildlife managers and researchers to examine the amount, use, and distribution of meat yielded through recreational hunting. We used responses to questions on the Michigan Deer Harvest Study to estimate the maximum yield of edible venison and assess hunters’ sharing behaviors. We estimated 11,402–14,473 metric tons of edible venison were procured during the 2013 hunting season. Of hunters who harvested a deer, 85% shared their venison. Hunters who shared did so with an average of 5.6 people (SD = 4.5). Sharing occurred most frequently within tight social networks: members of hunters’ households (69%), relatives (52%), and friends, neighbors, or coworkers (50%). In the absence of legal markets, venison is distributed widely by hunters and greatly amplifies the number of people benefiting from hunting. Nonetheless, we also identified the potential breadth of exposure to disease or contaminants from wild-harvested meat.

  14. What if simulation for a Brazilian company regarding marketing budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diogo André PINTO

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article research is a case study regarding how to design the marketing budget for a small Brazilian company that started the activity one year ago. Taking into account the data that we gather, we decided to use What-if simulation. The case study is a simplified model representation of a company, adjusted according to the data that is released as target for the following year. In practice, the formulation of a scenario allows the construction of a hypothetical world that the analyst can see and navigate.

  15. The responses of crop - wild Brassica hybrids to simulated herbivory and interspecific competition: implications for transgene introgression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Jamie P; Justinova, Lenka; Poppy, Guy M

    2006-01-01

    Brassica rapa grows as a wild and weedy species throughout the world and is the most likely recipient of transgenes from GM oilseed rape. For transgene introgression to occur, the critical step which must be realized, is the formation of an F1 hybrid. Concerns exist that hybrid populations could be more vigorous and competitive compared to the parental species. This study examines the effect of simulated herbivory and interspecific competition on the vegetative and reproductive performance of non-transgenic F1 hybrids and their parental lines. Several vegetative and reproductive performance measures were used to determine the effect of simulated herbivory and competition on the Brassica lines, including leaf length and biomass for herbivory and seedling height and biomass for competition. For defoliation experiments, B. rapa showed little response in terms of leaf length but B. napus and the F1 hybrid responded negatively. Brassica rapa showed elevated biomass responses, but B. napus and the hybrid demonstrated negative responses to defoliation. Defoliation at the cotyledon stage had a slight effect upon final biomass with the F1 hybrid performing significantly worse than B. napus, although seed counts were not significantly different. For the series of competition experiments, hybrids seemed to be more similar to B. rapa in terms of early seedling growth and reproductive measures. The underperformance of hybrid plants when challenged by herbivory and competition, could potentially decrease survivorship and explain the rarity of hybrids in field surveys. However, should transgene introgression occur, the dynamics of hybrids could change radically thus increasing the risk of gene flow from a transgenic oilseed rape crop to the wild recipient.

  16. Diversity and evolution of avian influenza viruses in live poultry markets, free-range poultry and wild wetland birds in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang-Jun; Lin, Xian-Dan; Guo, Wen-Ping; Tian, Jun-Hua; Wang, Wen; Ying, Xu-Hua; Wang, Miao-Ruo; Yu, Bin; Yang, Zhan-Qiu; Shi, Mang; Holmes, Edward C; Zhang, Yong-Zhen

    2016-04-01

    The wide circulation of novel avian influenza viruses (AIVs) highlights the risk of pandemic influenza emergence in China. To investigate the prevalence and genetic diversity of AIVs in different ecological contexts, we surveyed AIVs in live poultry markets (LPMs), free-range poultry and the wetland habitats of wild birds in Zhejiang and Hubei provinces. Notably, LPMs contained the highest frequency of AIV infection, and the greatest number of subtypes (n = 9) and subtype co-infections (n = 14), as well as frequent reassortment, suggesting that they play an active role in fuelling AIV transmission. AIV-positive samples were also identified in wild birds in both provinces and free-range poultry in one sampling site close to a wetland region in Hubei. H9N2, H7N9 and H5N1 were the most commonly sampled subtypes in the LPMs from Zhejiang, whilst H5N6 and H9N2 were the dominant subtypes in the LPMs from Hubei. Phylogenetic analyses of the whole-genome sequences of 43 AIVs revealed that three reassortant H5 subtypes were circulating in LMPs in both geographical regions. Notably, the viruses sampled from the wetland regions and free-range poultry contained complex reassortants, for which the origins of some segments were unclear. Overall, our study highlights the extent of AIV genetic diversity in two highly populated parts of central and south-eastern China, particularly in LPMs, and emphasizes the need for continual surveillance.

  17. From market games to real-world markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefferies, P.; Hart, M. L.; Hui, P. M.; Johnson, N. F.

    2001-04-01

    This paper uses the development of multi-agent market models to present a unified approach to the joint questions of how financial market movements may be simulated, predicted, and hedged against. We first present the results of agent-based market simulations in which traders equipped with simple buy/sell strategies and limited information compete in speculatory trading. We examine the effect of different market clearing mechanisms and show that implementation of a simple Walrasian auction leads to unstable market dynamics. We then show that a more realistic out-of-equilibrium clearing process leads to dynamics that closely resemble real financial movements, with fat-tailed price increments, clustered volatility and high volume autocorrelation. We then show that replacing the `synthetic' price history used by these simulations with data taken from real financial time-series leads to the remarkable result that the agents can collectively learn to identify moments in the market where profit is attainable. Hence on real financial data, the system as a whole can perform better than random. We then employ the formalism of Bouchaud in conjunction with agent based models to show that in general risk cannot be eliminated from trading with these models. We also show that, in the presence of transaction costs, the risk of option writing is greatly increased. This risk, and the costs, can however be reduced through the use of a delta-hedging strategy with modified, time-dependent volatility structure.

  18. Transfer of 137Cs to wild vegetables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Nobuhiko; Natsuhori, Masahiro; Mezawa, Akane; Kawakami, Akira

    1998-01-01

    For the evaluation of internal radiation dose, it is needed to estimate the amount of radionuclide incorporated to human body using a simulation model. 137 Cesium (Cs) is easily transferred associating with food intake as well as potassium and so, Cs is an important nuclide for evaluation of internal radiation. 137 Cs concentrations in wild vegetables are higher than those of cultured vegetables and milk. Therefore, the transfer coefficients of 137 Cs from soil to wild vegetables were estimated in this study. Wild vegetables and soils of their farms were collected in the Hakkoda Mountain range of Aomori Prefecture. The levels of 137 Cs in wild vegetables were 0.42-18.35 (Bq/kg), whereas those in cabbage and spinach were 0.08 and 0.01 (Bq/kg), respectively, indicating that the Cs level is dozens to several hundreds times higher in wild vegetables than cultured ones. And the transfer coefficient was estimated as 0.003-0.94 for the former and 0.001-0.8 for the latter. On the other hand, 1 37 Cs levels of the soils on which wild vegetables grew was 28.0 Bq/kg and it was 3.9 Bq/kg for the farm soil. Furthermore, the effects of water content and pH of the soil on the transfer coefficient were studied. (M.N.)

  19. Evidence from a Large Sample on the Effects of Group Size and Decision-Making Time on Performance in a Marketing Simulation Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treen, Emily; Atanasova, Christina; Pitt, Leyland; Johnson, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Marketing instructors using simulation games as a way of inducing some realism into a marketing course are faced with many dilemmas. Two important quandaries are the optimal size of groups and how much of the students' time should ideally be devoted to the game. Using evidence from a very large sample of teams playing a simulation game, the study…

  20. Does the market maker stabilize the market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mei; Chiarella, Carl; He, Xue-Zhong; Wang, Duo

    2009-08-01

    The market maker plays an important role in price formation, but his/her behavior and stabilizing impact on the market are relatively unclear, in particular in speculative markets. This paper develops a financial market model that examines the impact on market stability of the market maker, who acts as both a liquidity provider and an active investor in a market consisting of two types of boundedly rational speculative investors-the fundamentalists and trend followers. We show that the market maker does not necessarily stabilize the market when he/she actively manages the inventory to maximize profits, and that rather the market maker’s impact depends on the behavior of the speculators. Numerical simulations show that the model is able to generate outcomes for asset returns and market inventories that are consistent with empirical findings.

  1. Development of a model for integrated simulation of the European transmission networks and electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathke, Christian

    2013-01-01

    The liberalisation of electricity markets and the increase of renewable energy generation actually causes dramatic changes for the whole European power industry. The transmission system operators in particular have to meet the challenge to ensure a stable and reliable system operation in the future. Significant changes in power generation will require a substantial extension to current inadequate original transmission grids to handle increased wide area power flows. This is the only way to avoid overloading the grid and to reduce the herefrom resulting limitations for the Pan-European cross-border trade of electricity. This work describes in detail the development of a Pan-European integrated grid and an electricity market simulation tool. For this purpose an overview about the today's structure of the European electricity industry is given initially. Afterwards the configuration of the transmission grid, the used equipment and different methods for the load flow and short circuit calculation are explained. Furthermore models for the calculation of local loads and the power plant dispatch are presented in the following chapters. Following on from this a detailed model of the European electricity industry is developed and the main functions are described by means of some exemplary simulations. The simulation tool developed in this work enables the user to calculate realistic power plant schedules and the consequent resulting physical effects on the European transmission grid. It combines a time series based simulation of the electricity market with a detailed model of the transmission grid. The highly detailing of the model offers the feasibility to execute a complete AC load flow calculation using the Newton Raphson algorithm.Therefore it is possible to identify the active as well as the reactive power flows in the grid. The results of the power flow calculation are the basis for further investigations (e. g. the short circuit calculation) and to decide on

  2. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eldegard, Tom [Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen (Norway)

    1996-07-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  3. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom

    1996-01-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  4. MODELING OF INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN STOCKS MARKETS: AN APPROACH FROM MULTI AGENT BASED SIMULATION AND FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEJANDRO ESCOBAR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simulation model of a complex system, in this case a financial market, using a MultiAgent Based Simulation approach. Such model takes into account microlevel aspects like the Continuous Double Auction mechanism, which is widely used within stock markets, as well as investor agents reasoning who participate looking for profits. To model such reasoning several variables were considered including general stocks information like profitability and volatility, but also some agent's aspects like their risk tendency. All these variables are incorporated throughout a fuzzy logic approach trying to represent in a faithful manner the kind of reasoning that nonexpert investors have, including a stochastic component in order to model human factors.

  5. Do MENA stock market returns follow a random walk process?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research, three variance ratio tests: the standard variance ratio test, the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test, and the non-parametric rank scores test are adopted to test the random walk hypothesis (RWH of stock markets in Middle East and North Africa (MENA region using most recent data from January 2010 to September 2012. The empirical results obtained by all three econometric tests show that the RWH is strongly rejected for Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco. However, the standard variance ratio test and the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test reject the null hypothesis of random walk in Jordan and KSA, while non-parametric rank scores test do not. We may conclude that Jordan and KSA stock market are weak efficient. In sum, the empirical results suggest that return series in Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco are predictable. In other words, predictable patterns that can be exploited in these markets still exit. Therefore, investors may make profits in such less efficient markets.

  6. Simulations at Czech poultry market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Rumánková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper defines the possible scenarios of the development of the poultry market in the Czech Republic, in view of the trends in production, consumption and foreign trade. The individual scenarios are based upon the forecasts of selected factors that have a substantial impact on the poultry market and whose changes can be expected in the subsequent years with great likelihood. The article sets out and addresses various scenarios for the period of 2012–2014. The scenarios are based upon the partial equilibrium model of the poultry market, which has been derived on the basis of time series and panel data within the years 1995–2009. The conducted analysis clearly shows that changes in the prices of agricultural producers will have an effect on changes in the production of poultry meat, an increase in VAT through consumer prices will impact the rate of domestic consumption, as well as changes in disposable income. Similarly, a change in the exchange rate will have an effect on the amount of poultry imported into the Czech Republic.

  7. Measuring the impact of market coupling on the Italian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pellini, Elisabetta

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the impact on the Italian electricity market of replacing the current explicit auction mechanism with market coupling. Maximising the use of the cross-border interconnection capacity, market coupling increases the level of market integration and facilitates the access to low-cost generation by consumers located in high-cost generation countries. Thus, it is expected that a high-priced area such as Italy could greatly benefit from the introduction of this mechanism. In this paper, the welfare benefits are estimated for 2012 under alternative market scenarios, employing the optimal dispatch model ELFO++. The results of the simulations suggest that the improvement in social surplus is likely to be significant, especially when market fundamentals are tight. - Highlights: ► We study the impact on the Italian electricity market of introducing market coupling. ► We estimate welfare benefits under two market scenarios for 2012. ► Scenarios are simulated using the optimal dispatch model ELFO++. ► Welfare gains range between 33 M€/year and 741 M€/year.

  8. A water market simulator considering pair-wise trades between agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huskova, I.; Erfani, T.; Harou, J. J.

    2012-04-01

    In many basins in England no further water abstraction licences are available. Trading water between water rights holders has been recognized as a potentially effective and economically efficient strategy to mitigate increasing scarcity. A screening tool that could assess the potential for trade through realistic simulation of individual water rights holders would help assess the solution's potential contribution to local water management. We propose an optimisation-driven water market simulator that predicts pair-wise trade in a catchment and represents its interaction with natural hydrology and engineered infrastructure. A model is used to emulate licence-holders' willingness to engage in short-term trade transactions. In their simplest form agents are represented using an economic benefit function. The working hypothesis is that trading behaviour can be partially predicted based on differences in marginal values of water over space and time and estimates of transaction costs on pair-wise trades. We discuss the further possibility of embedding rules, norms and preferences of the different water user sectors to more realistically represent the behaviours, motives and constraints of individual licence holders. The potential benefits and limitations of such a social simulation (agent-based) approach is contrasted with our simulator where agents are driven by economic optimization. A case study based on the Dove River Basin (UK) demonstrates model inputs and outputs. The ability of the model to suggest impacts of water rights policy reforms on trading is discussed.

  9. The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, Amelie, E-mail: acharles@audencia.co [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.darne@univ-nantes.f [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

    2009-11-15

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable.

  10. The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, Amelie; Darne, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

  11. The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, Amelie [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

    2009-11-15

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

  12. Non-competitive market behaviour in the international coking coal market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, P.; Thorpe, S.; Hogan, L.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, a primal dual programming model of international coking coal trade is constructed to test for non-competitive market behaviour. World trade in 1996 is simulated under perfect competition and various non-competitive market structures. Statistical tests are used to compare simulated trade flows with actual data. Assuming Cournot-Nash behaviour, an all consumer oligopsony market structure is preferred to alternative models. Under an all consumer oligopsony world coking coal prices and trade are lower than under perfect competition. Under an oligopsonistic structure welfare gains from productivity increases in Australian coal mines might largely accrue to coal buyers

  13. Simulations of the development in the Nordic power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This report examines the development of prices, production, trade and CO 2 emission in the power markets in Scandinavia and Germany up to 2012. Simulations of a reference course indicate relatively strong growth of the power consumption. In combination with a modest development of the capacity in the short run, the growing consumption causes the prices to rise. Little by little it becomes profitable to build new gas power in Norway and Germany and a common quota market for CO 2 emissions makes it possible. Sweden and Finland will have an increasing power deficiency. The results vary in step with the variation in water supply but the adaptation is largely taken in the Nordic countries: in dry years, consumption is considerably reduced while the import from Germany increases modestly. Increasing the CO 2 tax with 150 per cent increases the prices and lowers the CO 2 emission, but not enough to comply with the Kyoto agreement. The impact of a new nuclear power plant in Finland will be less gas power and reduced emission of CO 2 in Norway. Finally, the calculations show that a scenario for which the climate goals are to be fulfilled nationally requires strong measures in the form of retrenchment on the consumer side, and the development of new capacity based on renewable energy sources in addition to scrapping and converting coal power plants

  14. Active Market Share: measuring competitiveness in retail energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loomis, D.; Malm, E.

    1999-01-01

    As retail electric and gas markets deregulate, market share measurement becomes critical for marketers, regulators, and incumbent utilities. Yet traditional market share measures miss important features of these network industries. In this paper we model provider choice in network industries and develop two alternate market share measures - The Active Market Share (AMS) and the New Mover Market Share (NMMS), that are based on 'active demand'. These measures are shown to provide more accurate real-time measures of market activity. The NMMS is a special case of the AMS which is easy to measure empirically. Numerical simulations are used to provide comparisons between each measure over time. Both the AMS and NMMS will be important tools for anyone interested in measuring the competitiveness of deregulating markets. (author)

  15. Measuring market performance in restructured electricity markets: An empirical analysis of the PJM energy market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Russell Jay

    2002-09-01

    Today the electric industry in the U.S. is transitioning to competitive markets for wholesale electricity. Independent system operators (ISOs) now manage broad regional markets for electrical energy in several areas of the U.S. A recent rulemaking by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) encourages the development of regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and restructured competitive wholesale electricity markets nationwide. To date, the transition to competitive wholesale markets has not been easy. The increased reliance on market forces coupled with unusually high electricity demand for some periods have created conditions amenable to market power abuse in many regions throughout the U.S. In the summer of 1999, hot and humid summer conditions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia pushed peak demand in the PJM Interconnection to record levels. These demand conditions coincided with the introduction of market-based pricing in the wholesale electricity market. Prices for electricity increased on average by 55 percent, and reached the $1,000/MWh range. This study examines the extent to which generator market power raised prices above competitive levels in the PJM Interconnection during the summer of 1999. It simulates hourly market-clearing prices assuming competitive market behavior and compares these prices with observed market prices in computing price markups over the April 1-August 31, 1999 period. The results of the simulation analysis are supported with an examination of actual generator bid data of incumbent generators. Price markups averaged 14.7 percent above expected marginal cost over the 5-month period for all non-transmission-constrained hours. The evidence presented suggests that the June and July monthly markups were strongly influenced by generator market power as price inelastic peak demand approached the electricity generation capacity constraint of the market. While this analysis of the

  16. How the ownership structures cause epidemics in financial markets: A network-based simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastkhan, Hossein; Gharneh, Naser Shams

    2018-02-01

    Analysis of systemic risks and contagions is one of the main challenges of policy makers and researchers in the recent years. Network theory is introduced as a main approach in the modeling and simulation of financial and economic systems. In this paper, a simulation model is introduced based on the ownership network to analyze the contagion and systemic risk events. For this purpose, different network structures with different values for parameters are considered to investigate the stability of the financial system in the presence of different kinds of idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. The considered network structures include Erdos-Renyi, core-periphery, segregated and power-law networks. Moreover, the results of the proposed model are also calculated for a real ownership network. The results show that the network structure has a significant effect on the probability and the extent of contagion in the financial systems. For each network structure, various values for the parameters results in remarkable differences in the systemic risk measures. The results of real case show that the proposed model is appropriate in the analysis of systemic risk and contagion in financial markets, identification of systemically important firms and estimation of market loss when the initial failures occur. This paper suggests a new direction in the modeling of contagion in the financial markets, in particular that the effects of new kinds of financial exposure are clarified. This paper's idea and analytical results may also be useful for the financial policy makers, portfolio managers and the firms to conduct their investment in the right direction.

  17. Evaluation of Hail Simulated Damage on Marketable Tuber Yield of Potato Agria Cultivar in Ardabil Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hassanpanah

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted at Ardabil Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Station during the year of 2010. A factorial experiment based on randomized complete block design with four replications and two factors were used to evaluate the effect of simulated hail damage to foliage at different growth stages of potato Agria cultivar on marketable tuber yield. The first factor consisted of six levels of foliar damage (0, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 percent and the second factor of five levels of plant growth stages (2, 5, 8, 11 and 15 weeks after the growing. Analysis of variance showed that there were significant differences among plants for levels and times of hail damage and their interactions in terms of marketable tuber yield. Percentage of marketable yield reduction at early stages of vegetative growth (2 weeks after growing was minimal. Occurrence of hail damage at the tuberization and bulking stages (5, 8 and 11 weeks after growing severely reduced marketable tuber yield. While, its damage at late growing stages of (14 weeks after growing on tuber yield was not appreciable. Times of hail damage on marketable tuber yield reduction was calculated through the regression. Relative reduction of marketable tuber yield at the early stages of vegetative growth, due to hail damage, against non-marketable tuber yield was higher than of bulking stage.

  18. SIMULATION OF CONTROL STRATEGY FOR INTERNATIONAL MARKETING SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Korzh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to develop a general model of integrated management of marketing activities from an international perspective, given the relationship of its parts to each other and the external environment and the cyclical nature of the process, and the construction of a general model for evaluating the performance of international marketing system. Results: In modern conditions high-quality products are necessity-term, but not sufficient to achieve the successful operation of the market. To optimize the above goal should be to work out issues such as the definition of the requirements of potential customers, the timing, location and conditions of the transaction, that is, the seller must offer the buyer at a particular moment only the product that the best way to satisfy existing need for the latter. This may explain the reason for the proposed buyers of high-quality goods are distributed in the market of one country and cannot find it in another. Discussion: The information presented in this article marketing management model allows you to organize all marketing activities and events, and do them not by chance, but in the complex, taking into account their relationship and interaction. As well as the opportunity to working with mesh product and market development to identify new attraction activities and evaluate them in terms of compliance with the overall objectives and company resources. In addition, the proposed method of assessing the effectiveness of a marketing system is universal, and it allows you to analyze the effectiveness of the functioning of the marketing of individual enterprises, regardless of scope, given the impact of all factors.

  19. Sustainable design options for the German electricity market. A comparison of the energy-only market with capacity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Renz, Lea; Bublitz, Andreas; Zimmermann, Florian; Genoese, Massimo; Fichtner, Wolf

    2016-01-01

    This study intensively discusses the further developments of the electricity market design in Germany based on substantial scientific insights. For this purpose, an agent-based simulation model is applied to evaluate the operability of the energy only market extended with a strategic reserve. Furthermore, the effects of the implementation of a centralized or decentralized capacity market are analyzed.

  20. Wild Maid, Wild Soul, A Wild Wild Weed: Niki de Saint Phalle’s Fierce Femininities, c. 1960-66

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amelia Jones

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Self-described as “wild maid,” “wild soul,” “a wild wild weed,” Niki de Saint Phalle narrated herself as artistic subject in a concerted way that stands out in the history of art: as both creatively driven and emotionally renegade and excessive, as both definitively woman and definitively artist. In this essay I take this special case of self-narration, and the particular power of St. Phalle’s work, as an opportunity to explore the relationship between.(auto-biography and artistic practice. The case of St. Phalle, a radical sculptor, performance artist, writer, and filmmaker, allows us to understand the exaggerated way in which women artists were until very recently forced to adopt “fierce femininities” to make a place for themselves as artists. In this way, I suggest that St. Phalle represents a key inspirational force opening the door for second wave feminism and the feminist art movement.

  1. WINS. Market Simulation Tool for Facilitating Wind Energy Integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shahidehpour, Mohammad [Illinois Inst. of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)

    2012-10-30

    Integrating 20% or more wind energy into the system and transmitting large sums of wind energy over long distances will require a decision making capability that can handle very large scale power systems with tens of thousands of buses and lines. There is a need to explore innovative analytical and implementation solutions for continuing reliable operations with the most economical integration of additional wind energy in power systems. A number of wind integration solution paths involve the adoption of new operating policies, dynamic scheduling of wind power across interties, pooling integration services, and adopting new transmission scheduling practices. Such practices can be examined by the decision tool developed by this project. This project developed a very efficient decision tool called Wind INtegration Simulator (WINS) and applied WINS to facilitate wind energy integration studies. WINS focused on augmenting the existing power utility capabilities to support collaborative planning, analysis, and wind integration project implementations. WINS also had the capability of simulating energy storage facilities so that feasibility studies of integrated wind energy system applications can be performed for systems with high wind energy penetrations. The development of WINS represents a major expansion of a very efficient decision tool called POwer Market Simulator (POMS), which was developed by IIT and has been used extensively for power system studies for decades. Specifically, WINS provides the following superiorities; (1) An integrated framework is included in WINS for the comprehensive modeling of DC transmission configurations, including mono-pole, bi-pole, tri-pole, back-to-back, and multi-terminal connection, as well as AC/DC converter models including current source converters (CSC) and voltage source converters (VSC); (2) An existing shortcoming of traditional decision tools for wind integration is the limited availability of user interface, i.e., decision

  2. Wild Food, Prices, Diets and Development: Sustainability and Food Security in Urban Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Q. Sneyd

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses wild food consumption in urban areas of Cameroon. Building upon findings from Cameroon’s Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA this case study presents empirical data collected from 371 household and market surveys in Cameroonian cities. It employs the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food’s framework for understanding challenges related to the availability, accessibility, and adequacy of food. The survey data suggest that many wild/traditional foods are physically available in Cameroonian cities most of the time, including fruits, vegetables, spices, and insects. Cameroonians spend considerable sums of their food budget on wild foods. However, low wages and the high cost of city living constrain the social and economic access most people have to these foods. The data also suggest that imports of non-traditional staple foods, such as low cost rice, have increasingly priced potentially more nutritious or safe traditional local foods out of markets after the 2008 food price crisis. As a result, diets are changing in Cameroon as the resource-constrained population continues to resort to the coping strategy of eating cheaper imported foods such as refined rice or to eating less frequently. Cameroon’s nutrition transition continues to be driven by need and not necessarily by the preferences of Cameroonian consumers. The implications of this reality for sustainability are troubling.

  3. Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ming-Che

    Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received

  4. Market power in electricity markets: Beyond concentration measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borenstein, S.; Bushnell, J.; Knittel, C.R.

    1999-01-01

    The wave of electricity market restructuring both within the US and abroad has brought the issue of horizontal market power to the forefront of energy policy. Traditionally, estimation and prediction of market power has relied heavily on concentration measures. In this paper, the authors discuss the weaknesses of concentration measures as a viable measure of market power in the electricity industry, and they propose an alternative method based on market simulations that take advantage of existing plant level data. The authors discuss results from previous studies they have performed, and present new results that allow for the detection of threshold demand levels where market power is likely to be a problem. In addition, the authors analyze the impact of that recent divestitures in the California electricity market will have on estimated market power. They close with a discussion of the policy implications of the results

  5. Simulating partially illegal markets of private tanker water providers on the country level: A multi-agent, hydroeconomic case-study of Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klassert, C. J. A.; Yoon, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Sigel, K.; Talozi, S.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.; Harou, J. J.; Mustafa, D.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Rajsekhar, D.; Avisse, N.; Zhang, H.

    2016-12-01

    In arid countries around the world, markets of private small-scale water providers, mostly delivering water via tanker trucks, have emerged to balance the shortcomings of public water supply systems. While these markets can provide substantial contributions to meeting customers' water demands, they often partially rely on illegal water abstractions, thus imposing an unregulated and unmonitored strain on ground and surface water resources. Despite their important impacts on water users' welfare and resource sustainability, these markets are still poorly understood. We use a multi-agent, hydroeconomic simulation model, developed as part of the Jordan Water Project, to investigate the role of these markets in a country-wide case-study of Jordan. Jordan's water sector is characterized by a severe and growing scarcity of water resources, high intermittency in the public water network, and a strongly increasing demand due to an unprecedented refugee crisis. The tanker water market serves an important role in providing water from rural wells to households and commercial enterprises, especially during supply interruptions. In order to overcome the lack of direct data about this partially illegal market, we simulate demand and supply for tanker water. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. A market algorithm is then used to match rural supplies with users' demands, accounting for survey data on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is used to gain insights into the size of the tanker markets in all 89 subdistricts of Jordan and their responsiveness to various policy

  6. Dispersal and Transmission of Avian Paramyxovirus Serotype 4 among Wild Birds and Domestic Poultry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renfu Yin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Avian paramyxovirus serotype 4 (APMV-4 is found sporadically in wild birds worldwide, and it is an economically important poultry pathogen. Despite the existence of several published strains, very little is known about the distribution, host species, and transmission of APMV-4 strains. To better understand the relationships among these factors, we conducted an APMV-4 surveillance of wild birds and domestic poultry in six provinces of China suspected of being intercontinental flyways and sites of interspecies transmission. APMV-4 surveillance was conducted in 9,160 wild birds representing seven species, and 1,461 domestic poultry in live bird markets (LMBs from December 2013 to June 2016. The rate of APMV-4 isolation was 0.10% (11/10,621, and viruses were isolated from swan geese, bean geese, cormorants, mallards, and chickens. Sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of the 11 isolated viruses indicated that all the isolates belonging to genotype I were epidemiologically connected with wild bird-origin viruses from the Ukraine and Italy. Moreover, chicken-origin APMV-4 strains isolated from the LBMs were highly similar to wild bird-origin viruses from nearby lakes with free-living wild birds. In additional, a hemagglutination-negative APMV-4 virus was identified. These findings, together with recent APMV-4 studies, suggest potential virus interspecies transmission between wild birds and domestic poultry, and reveal possible epidemiological intercontinental connections between APMV-4 transmission by wild birds.

  7. Development of a virtual power market model to investigate strategic and collusive behavior of market players

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, Miadreza; Parsa Moghaddam, Mohsen; Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohamad Kazem

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a virtual power market model is proposed to investigate the behavior of power market players from regulator's point of view. In this approach, strategic players are modeled in a multi-agent environment. These agents which are virtual representative of actual players forecast the prices and participate in the markets, exactly the same as real world situation. In addition, the role of ISO is encountered by using security constraint unit commitment (SCUC) and security constraint economic dispatch (SCED) solutions. Moreover, the interaction between market players is modeled using a heuristic dynamic game theory algorithm based on the supply function equilibria (SFE). In addition to the collusive behavior, using the proposed model, the short-term strategic behavior of players, which their effects will appear in long-term, can be simulated. The proposed model enables the market regulators to make decision before implementing new market rules with the confidence of their results. To represent the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study including wind power plants is considered and the impact of various market rules on players’ behavior is simulated and discussed. Numerical studies indicate that simulating the strategic and collusive behavior prior to any change in the market rules is necessary. - Highlights: • A virtual power market model is proposed using a heuristic dynamic game theory. • The proposed model can simulate the behavior of market players in a certain period. • This model can evaluate the oligopoly, collusive and strategic behavior of players. • The price uncertainty and security constraint are considered. • Neglecting strategic behavior of players can cause adverse consequences

  8. [Study on Different Parts of Wild and Cultivated Gentiana Rigescens with Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yun-xia; Zhao, Yan-li; Zhang, Ji; Zuo, Zhi-tian; Wang, Yuan-zhong; Zhang, Qing-zhi

    2016-03-01

    The application of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and their preparations have a long history. With the deepening of the research, the market demand is increasing. However, wild resources are so limited that it can not meet the needs of the market. The development of wild and cultivated samples and research on accumulation dynamics of chemical component are of great significance. In order to compare composition difference of different parts (root, stem, and leaf) of wild and cultivated G. rigescens, Fourier infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and second derivative spectra were used to analyze and evaluate. The second derivative spectra of 60 samples and the rate of affinity (the match values) were measured automatically using the appropriate software (Omnic 8.0). The results showed that the various parts of wild and cultivated G. rigescens. were high similar the peaks at 1732, 1 643, 1 613, 1 510, 1 417, 1 366, 1 322, 1 070 cm(-1) were the characteristic peak of esters, terpenoids and saccharides, respectively. Moreover, the shape and peak intensity were more distinct in the second derivative spectrum of samples. In the second derivative spectrum range of 1 800-600 cm(-1), the fingerprint characteristic peak of samples and gentiopicroside standards were 1 679, 1 613, 1 466, 1 272, 1 204, 1 103, 1 074, 985, 935 cm(-1). The characteristic peak intensity of gentiopicroside of roots of wild and cultivated samples at 1 613 cm(-1) (C-C) was higher than stems and leaves which indicated the higher content of gentiopicroside in root than in stem and leaves. Stems of wild samples at 1 521, 1 462 and 1 452 cm(-1) are the skeletal vibration peak of benzene ring of lignin, and the stem of cultivated sample have stronger peak than other samples which showed that rich lignin in stems. The iInfrared spectrum of samples were similar with the average spectral of root of wild samples, and significant difference was found for the correlation between second derivative spectrum of samples

  9. Marketing percolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenberg, J.; Libai, B.; Solomon, S.; Jan, N.; Stauffer, D.

    2000-09-01

    A percolation model is presented, with computer simulations for illustrations, to show how the sales of a new product may penetrate the consumer market. We review the traditional approach in the marketing literature, which is based on differential or difference equations similar to the logistic equation (Bass, Manage. Sci. 15 (1969) 215). This mean-field approach is contrasted with the discrete percolation on a lattice, with simulations of "social percolation" (Solomon et al., Physica A 277 (2000) 239) in two to five dimensions giving power laws instead of exponential growth, and strong fluctuations right at the percolation threshold.

  10. Strategic energy planning: Modelling and simulating energy market behaviours using system thinking and systems dynamics principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papageorgiou, George Nathaniel

    2005-01-01

    In the face of limited energy reserves and the global warming phenomenon, Europe is undergoing a transition from rapidly depleting fossil fuels to renewable unconventional energy sources. During this transition period, energy shortfalls will occur and energy prices will be increasing in an oscillating manner. As a result of the turbulence and dynamicity that will accompany the transition period, energy analysts need new appropriate methods, techniques and tools in order to develop forecasts for the behaviour of energy markets, which would assist in the long term strategic energy planning and policy analysis. This paper reviews energy market behaviour as related to policy formation, and from a dynamic point of view through the use of ''systems thinking'' and ''system dynamics'' principles, provides a framework for modelling the energy production and consumption process in relation to their environment. Thereby, effective energy planning can be developed via computerised simulation using policy experimentation. In a demonstration model depicted in this paper, it is shown that disasters due to attractive policies can be avoided by using simple computer simulation. (Author)

  11. Presence and uses of wild grapevine (Vitis spp. in the central region of Veracruz in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Guillermo Cruz-Castillo

    2009-06-01

    Significance and impact of study: The exploration of Vitis spp. in the area studied raises the possibility of finding new hybrids or multi-hybrids between species. Wild grapevines could be used to produce natural products that could be sold on the market.

  12. The Most Popular Edible Wild Mushrooms in Vezirköprü District of Samsun Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanem Bulam

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Edible wild mushrooms are becoming more and more important in our diet for their nutritional and pharmacological properties. The aim of this study was to gather information about edible wild mushroom species existed in mycobiota of Vezirköprü district of Samsun province that are economically important and are collected from nature by the villagers and sold in the local markets. The mushroom samples were identified based on their macroscopic and microscopic features. The information, obtained on the collecting time, local names and habitats of the mushrooms was inquired from the sellers, consumers and traders. Cantharellus cibarius, Morchella spp. and Boletus edulis species are not only sold in the Vezirköprü market but also exported. Amanita caesarea, Cantharellus ferruginascens, Craterellus cornucopioides, Clitocybe geotropa, Hydnum repandum, H. rufescens, Lactarius deliciosus, L. semisanguifluus, L. vellereus, L. vinosus, Macrolepiota procera, Ramaria spp., Russula delica and Tricholoma terreum are species of mushrooms with high edible quality and economical importance.

  13. Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

    2012-04-01

    Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

  14. Spatiotemporal trends in Canadian domestic wild boar production and habitat predict wild pig distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Nicole; Laforge, Michel; van Beest, Floris

    2017-01-01

    eradication of wild pigs is rarely feasible after establishment over large areas, effective management will depend on strengthening regulations and enforcement of containment practices for Canadian domestic wild boar farms. Initiation of coordinated provincial and federal efforts to implement population...... wild boar and test the propagule pressure hypothesis to improve predictive ability of an existing habitat-based model of wild pigs. We reviewed spatiotemporal patterns in domestic wild boar production across ten Canadian provinces during 1991–2011 and evaluated the ability of wild boar farm...... distribution to improve predictive models of wild pig occurrence using a resource selection probability function for wild pigs in Saskatchewan. Domestic wild boar production in Canada increased from 1991 to 2001 followed by sharp declines in all provinces. The distribution of domestic wild boar farms in 2006...

  15. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  16. Implementing "Marketing Me": A Simulation Enhanced Variant for a Student Self-Marketing Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flostrand, Andrew; Ho, Jason Y. C.; Krider, Robert E.

    2016-01-01

    The use of student self-branding exercises in introductory marketing courses for undergraduate business programs has been growing in popularity due to a number of advantages for students. This article introduces implementation of the "Marketing Me" variant developed and used since 2013 by the authors, wherein alumni are brought in to…

  17. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  18. Simulating the spread of classical swine fever virus between a hypothetical wild-boar population and domestic pig herds in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Goldbach, Stine G.; Uttenthal, Åse

    2008-01-01

    of CSFV between the hypothetical wild-boar population and the domestic population. Furthermore, the economic impact is assessed taking the perspective of the Danish national budget and the Danish pig industry. We used InterSpreadPlus to model the differential classical swine fever (CSF) risk due to wild......Denmark has no free-range wild-boar population. However, Danish wildlife organizations have suggested that wild boar should be reintroduced into the wild to broaden national biodiversity. Danish pig farmers fear that this would lead to a higher risk of introduction of classical swine fever virus...

  19. Monte Carlo simulation based reliability evaluation in a multi-bilateral contracts market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Viswanath, P.A.; Wang, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique to evaluate customer load point reliability in multi-bilateral contracts market. The effects of bilateral transactions, reserve agreements, and the priority commitments of generating companies on customer load point reliability have been investigated. A generating company with bilateral contracts is modelled as an equivalent time varying multi-state generation (ETMG). A procedure to determine load point reliability based on ETMG has been developed. The developed procedure is applied to a reliability test system to illustrate the technique. Representing each bilateral contract by an ETMG provides flexibility in determining the reliability at various customer load points. (authors)

  20. Market power in cap-and-trade auctions: A Monte Carlo approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dormady, Noah C.

    2013-01-01

    Recent greenhouse gas auctions have resulted in base level prices while remaining significantly concentrated. How do dominant firms receive such a large share of emissions allowances without bidding up the market price? This paper provides a Monte Carlo simulation analysis based on a contemporary regional greenhouse gas market in the United States. It introduces a C# simulation software environment, Oligopsony 1.0 that simulates uniform-price emissions auctions in repeated iterations. The results of these simulations indicate that there can be significant non-linearities between profit and market power as exercised through strategic demand reduction. This analysis finds the optimum point of strategic demand reduction that enables firms to exploit these non-linearities. The use of auctions to distribute tradeable pollution rights to firms in heavily concentrated markets can have significant unintended consequences, as it can exacerbate the problems of market power that exist within those markets. -- Highlights: •The theory of market power behavior in emissions auctions is furthered. •Monte Carlo simulation environment Oligopsony 1.0 is introduced. •Simulations provide analysis of optimum bids to exercise market power. •Significant non-linearities exist between profit and the exercise of market power

  1. Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Sousa, Tiago M.

    2014-01-01

    decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology...... that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management...... allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides...

  2. Carbon auctions, energy markets and market power: An experimental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dormady, Noah C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides an experimental analysis of a simultaneous energy-emissions market under conditions of market power. The experimental design employs real-world institutional features; including stochastic demand, permit banking, inter-temporal (multi-round) dynamics, a tightening cap, and resale. The results suggest that dominant firms can utilize energy-emissions market linkages to simultaneously inflate the price of energy and suppress the price of emissions allowances. Whereas under prior market designs, regulators were concerned with dominant firms exercising their market power over the emissions market to exclude rivals and manipulate the permit market by hoarding permits; the results of this paper suggest that this strategy is less profitable to dominant firms in contemporary auction-based markets than strategic capacity withholding in the energy market and associated demand reduction in the emissions market. - Highlights: • Laboratory simulation of joint energy-emissions market. • Evaluates market power under collusion and real-world institutional features. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to inflate energy prices. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to suppress emissions prices. • Supply withholding is an implicit demand reduction in the emissions market

  3. Modelling of demand response and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  4. An explorative study of the practice of light trapping and the informal market for crickets in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münke-Svendsen, C.; Ao, V.; Lach, T.

    2018-01-01

    was to describe the informal food sector for wild caught crickets in Cambodia. The information was collected in April-May 2012. Information on collection equipment and techniques, processing and trade were obtained from light trap owners, traders, market vendors and governmental representatives. Five cricket......Edible insects are an integrated part of the food sector in many South-East Asian countries. While the majority of studies focus on Thailand and its cricket farming sector, neighbouring countries like Cambodia and Laos also form a regional market for edible insects. The aim of this research...... species were identified to be the main trade object. Cricket trapping contributed to livelihoods of rural households operating in a self-governing market. As the crickets are caught from the wild, the sustainability of the market has to be questioned. The use of a framework to structure future studies...

  5. Understanding the Future Market for NovaSAR-S Flood Mapping Products Using Data Mining and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavender, Samantha; Haria, Kajal; Cooksley, Geraint; Farman, Alex; Beaton, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    The aim was to understand a future market for NovaSAR-S, with a particular focus on flood mapping, through developing a simple Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) simulator that can be used in advance of NovaSAR-S data becoming available.The return signal was determined from a combination of a terrain or elevation model, Envisat S-Band Radar Altimeter (RA)-2, Landsat and CORINE land cover information; allowing for a simulation of a SAR image that's influenced by both the geometry and surface type. The test sites correspond to data from the 2014 AirSAR campaign, and validation is performed by using AirSAR together with Envisat Advanced (ASAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite "Daichi" (ALOS) Phased Array type L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data.It's envisaged that the resulting simulated data, and the simulator, will not only aid early understanding of NovaSAR-S, but will also aid the development of flood mapping applications.

  6. A stated preference investigation into the Chinese demand for farmed vs. wild bear bile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Dutton

    Full Text Available Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product.

  7. A stated preference investigation into the Chinese demand for farmed vs. wild bear bile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, Adam J; Hepburn, Cameron; Macdonald, David W

    2011-01-01

    Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product.

  8. Will cross-ownership reestablish market power in the Nordic power market?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amundsen, Eirik S.; Bergman, Lars

    2000-01-01

    The integration of the power markets in Norway and Sweden in 1996 significantly constrained the major power companies' ability to exercise market power within their national borders. In recent years, however, mergers and reciprocal acquisition of shares have reduced the number of independent players on the Norwegian-Swedish power market. The aim of this paper is to explore to what extent increasing cross-ownership among major power companies in Norway and Sweden might re-establish the market power that was lost when the two national power markets were integrated. The analysis is based on a numerical model, assuming Cournot quantity setting behaviour, of the Norwegian-Swedish power market. The simulation results suggest that partial ownership relations between major generators and other power-producing firms tend to increase horizontal market power and thus the market price of electricity. (author)

  9. Gas Market deverticalization and liberalization: simulate the effect of different attack and defence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drusiani, Renato; Fazioli, Roberto; Matino, Paola

    2005-01-01

    The Autorita' per l'Energia Elettrica e il Gas (Aeeg-Italian Electricity Regulator) and The Autorita' Garante per la Concorrenza e il Mercato (Agcm - Italian Competition and Market Regulator) have pointed out that, despite the process of deverticalization and liberalization started with the 'Decreto Letta', oligopolistic blocks still exist in the up stream segment of the natural gas supply chain. Such a liberalization process apparently did not bring about those expected, outstanding benefits for the final users, to such extent that it took action from the Aeeg itself to regulate the final prices, thus dramatically hampering the complete opening of the market and ultimately undermining its expected results. Furthermore, the natural gas industry operators are all aware that competition in the down stream segment (distribution) will be, as it is righi now, limited only to the more attractive industrial use. This parer analyzes and simulates, based on empirical data, the effect of different attack and defence strategies between incumbents and competitors, whose identification is based more on the financial solidity they show in developing competition strategies than their management efficiency level. Il is our intent to add a contribution to the national debate in terms of simulation of a price competition between incumbent and competitor, in order to evaluate how likely it is far oligopolistic blocks to occur. As a second step, a simplified competition analysis, applied to a real-life situation, has been carried out. The questions tackled in this simulation, which is based on the game theory, concern, first and foremost, the demonstration that an oligopolistic block in the up stream affects the down stream, and how such effects bear on the various categories of users. As a final corollary, a question of industrial policy: are the effects of an asymmetric liberalization such as to induce a supply side concentration which is rather based on the exploitation of the up

  10. Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

    2016-11-01

    Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

  11. Quantitative market survey of non-woody plants sold at Kariakoo Market in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posthouwer, Chantal; Veldman, Sarina; Abihudi, Siri; Otieno, Joseph N; van Andel, Tinde R; de Boer, Hugo J

    2018-04-30

    In Tanzania, traditional medicine plays a significant role in health care and local economies based on the harvesting, trade and sale of medicinal plant products. The majority of this plant material is said to originate from wild sources, and both traditional healers and vendors are concerned about the increasing scarcity of certain species. A market survey of non-powdered, non-woody medicinal plants was conducted at Kariakoo Market in Dar es Salaam, the major hub for medicinal plant trade in Tanzania, to assess sustainability of traded herbal medicine. For this study, fresh and dried herbs, seeds and fruits were collected and interviews were conducted to obtain information on vernacular names, preparation methods, monthly sales, uses and prices. Bundles of herbal medicine offered for sale were weighed and counted to calculate the value and volumes of daily stock at the market. A total of 71 medicinal plant products belonging to 62 to 67 different species from at least 41 different plant families were identified. We identified 45 plant products to species level, 20 products to genus level and four to family level. Plant species most encountered at the market were Suregada zanzibariensis, Myrothamnus flabellifolia and Sclerocarya birrea. The major use categories reported by the vendors were ritual purposes, digestive disorders and women's health. Annual sales are estimated to be in excess of 30 t and close to 200,000 USD, and trade in herbal medicine at Kariakoo Market provides subsistence income to many local vendors. A large diversity of wild-harvested plant species is traded as medicinal products in Tanzania, including species listed on CITES Appendices. Identifying and monitoring temporal changes in availability per season and from year to year will reveal which species are most affected by this trade, and help relevant authorities in Tanzania to find alternative sources of income for dependent stakeholders and initiate targeted efforts to protect threatened

  12. Promoting the Sustainable Building Market: an Evolution Analysis and System Dynamics Simulation on Behaviors of Real Estate Developers and Government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli Xie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Chinese government takes measures to promote the development of green building (GB. But until 2013, there are only few green buildings in China. The real estate developers are skeptical in entering GB market, which requires theories to explain developers and government’s behaviors.Design/methodology/approach: In this study, we attempt Evolutionary game theory and System dynamics (SD into the analysis. A system dynamics model is built for studying evolutionary games between the government and developers in greening building decision making.Findings and Originality/value: The results of mixed-strategy stability analysis and SD simulation show that evolutionary equilibrium does not exist with a static government incentive. Therefore, a dynamical incentive is suggested in the SD model for promoting the green building market. The symmetric game and asymmetric game between two developers show, if the primary proportion who choose GB strategy is lower, all the group in game may finally evolve to GB strategy. In this case and in this time, the government should take measures to encourage developers to enter into the GB market. If the proportion who choose GB strategy is high enough, the government should gradually cancel or reduce those incentive measure.Research limitations/implications: an Evolution Analysis and System Dynamics Simulation on Behaviors of Real Estate Developers and Government could give some advice for the government to promote the green building market.

  13. Wild harvest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cruz-Garcia, G.S.; Struik, P.C.; Johnson, D.E.

    2016-01-01

    Rice fields provide not only a staple food but are also bio-diverse and multi-functional ecosystems. Wild food plants are important elements of biodiversity in rice fields and are critical components to the subsistence of poor farmers. The spatial and seasonal distribution of wild food plants

  14. A Review of Zoonotic Infection Risks Associated with the Wild Meat Trade in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantlay, Jennifer Caroline; Ingram, Daniel J; Meredith, Anna L

    2017-06-01

    The overhunting of wildlife for food and commercial gain presents a major threat to biodiversity in tropical forests and poses health risks to humans from contact with wild animals. Using a recent survey of wildlife offered at wild meat markets in Malaysia as a basis, we review the literature to determine the potential zoonotic infection risks from hunting, butchering and consuming the species offered. We also determine which taxa potentially host the highest number of pathogens and discuss the significant disease risks from traded wildlife, considering how cultural practices influence zoonotic transmission. We identify 51 zoonotic pathogens (16 viruses, 19 bacteria and 16 parasites) potentially hosted by wildlife and describe the human health risks. The Suidae and the Cervidae families potentially host the highest number of pathogens. We conclude that there are substantial gaps in our knowledge of zoonotic pathogens and recommend performing microbial food safety risk assessments to assess the hazards of wild meat consumption. Overall, there may be considerable zoonotic risks to people involved in the hunting, butchering or consumption of wild meat in Southeast Asia, and these should be considered in public health strategies.

  15. Avian Influenza H5N1 and the Wild Bird Trade in Hanoi, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Brooks-Moizer

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife trade and emerging infectious diseases pose significant threats to human and animal health and global biodiversity. Legal and illegal trade in domestic and wild birds has played a significant role in the global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1, which has killed more than 240 people, many millions of poultry, and an unknown number of wild birds and mammals, including endangered species, since 2003. This 2007 study provides evidence for a significant decline in the scale of the wild bird trade in Hanoi since previous surveys in 2000 (39.7% decline and 2003 (74.1% decline. We attribute this to the enforcement of Vietnam's Law 169/2005/QD UBND, introduced in 2005, which prohibits the movement and sale of wild and ornamental birds in cities. Nevertheless, 91.3% (21/23 of bird vendors perceived no risk of H5N1 infection from their birds, and the trade continues, albeit at reduced levels, in open market shops. These findings highlight the importance of continued law enforcement to maintain this trade reduction and the associated benefits to human and animal health and biodiversity conservation.

  16. Dietary values of wild and semi-wild edible plants in Southern Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, traditional processing methods lower most of the anti-nutritionals and their respective risks. New food composition tables that integrate indigenous knowledge and nutritional content of the semi-wild and wild edibles are recommended. Wild edibles can be considered to improve livelihood security and reduce ...

  17. Modelling biological control with wild-type and genetically modified baculoviruses in the Helicoverpa armigera-cotton system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, X.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Hu, Z.; Vlak, J.M.

    2006-01-01

    A comprehensive model was developed to simulate virus epizootics in a stage structured insect population and analyse scenarios for the biological control of cotton bollworm (CBW), Helicoverpa armigera, in cotton, using wild-type or genetically modified baculoviruses. In simulations on dosage and

  18. Electricity market dynamics: Oligopolistic competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2006-01-01

    Presently, electricity markets are characterized by a small number of suppliers with distributed resources. These market suppliers can easily be identified because their geographic location is known. Essentially, two or three of them compete for leading the market whereas the rest of them follow. Hence, it is necessary to study the market structure as ologopolistic competition rather than perfect competition. This paper studies market producer decisions in a dynamic sequential framework by using discrete event system simulation (DESS) also known as discrete control theory. Two-player ologopolistic market structure is presented in this paper. (author)

  19. Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated

  20. Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliston, Ben; Diesendorf, Mark; MacGill, Iain

    2012-01-01

    As a part of a program to explore technological options for the transition to a renewable energy future, we present simulations for 100% renewable energy systems to meet actual hourly electricity demand in the five states and one territory spanned by the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) in 2010. The system is based on commercially available technologies: concentrating solar thermal (CST) power with thermal storage, wind, photovoltaic (PV), existing hydro and biofuelled gas turbines. Hourly solar and wind generation data are derived from satellite observations, weather stations, and actual wind farm outputs. Together CST and PV contribute about half of total annual electrical energy supply. A range of 100% renewable energy systems for the NEM are found to be technically feasible and meet the NEM reliability standard. The principal challenge is meeting peak demand on winter evenings following overcast days when CST storage is partially charged and sometimes wind speeds are low. The model handles these circumstances by combinations of an increased number of gas turbines and reductions in winter peak demand. There is no need for conventional base-load power plants. The important parameter is the reliability of the whole supply-demand system, not the reliability of particular types of power plants. - Highlights: ► We simulate 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market. ► The energy system comprises commercially available technologies. ► A range of 100% renewable electricity systems meet the reliability standard. ► Principal challenge is meeting peak demand on winter evenings. ► The concept of ‘base-load’ power plants is found to be redundant.

  1. Wild dogma II: The role and implications of wild dogma for wild dog management in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin L. ALLEN, Richard M. ENGEMAN, Lee R. ALLEN

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The studies of Allen (2011 and Allen et al. (2011 recently examined the methodology underpinning claims that dingoes provide net benefits to biodiversity by suppressing foxes and cats. They found most studies to have design flaws and/or observational methods that preclude valid interpretations from the data, describing most of the current literature as ‘wild dogma’. In this short supplement, we briefly highlight the roles and implications of wild dogma for wild dog management in Australia. We discuss nomenclature, and the influence that unreliable science can have on policy and practice changes related to apex predator management [Current Zoology 57 (6: 737–740, 2011].

  2. The market value and impact of offshore wind on the electricity spot market: Evidence from Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ederer, Nikolaus

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Market value of offshore wind based on feed-in and weather data is assessed. • Merit order effect caused by wind energy is simulated for 2006–2014. • Results indicate same impact of on- and offshore wind on market price and value. • Steadier wind resource offshore imposes less variability on market price. • Characteristic of variable wind feed-in cannot be blamed for price deterioration. - Abstract: Although the expansion of offshore wind has recently increased in Germany, as in other countries, it is still forced to defend its role in long-term energy policy plans, particularly against its onshore counterpart, to secure future expansion targets and financial support. The objective of this article is to investigate the economic effects of offshore wind on the electricity spot market and thus open up another perspective that has not been part of the debate about offshore vs. onshore wind thus far. A comprehensive assessment based on a large amount of market, feed-in and weather data in Germany revealed that the market value of offshore wind is generally higher than that of onshore wind. Simulating the merit order effect on the German day-ahead electricity market for the short term and long term in the years 2006–2014 aimed to identify the reason for this observation and show whether it is also an indication of a lower impact on the electricity spot market due to a steadier wind resource prevailing offshore. Although the results suggest no difference regarding the impact on market price and value, they indeed reveal that offshore wind imposes less variability on the spot market price than onshore wind. In addition, the long-term simulation proved that the ongoing price deterioration cannot be blamed on the characteristic of variable wind production

  3. Wild reindeer of Yakutia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.M. Safronov

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available Three major herds of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus L., totaling over 200,000 animals, occur in the tundra and taiga of northern Yakutia. These herds have been expanding since the late 1950s and now occupy most of their historic range. In addition, several thousand wild reindeer occupy the New Siberian Islands and adjacent coastal mainland tundra, and there are about 60,000 largely sedentary forest reindeer in mountainous areas of the southern two-thirds of the province. Wild reindeer are commercially hunted throughout the mainland, and the production of wild meat is an important part of the economy of the province and of individual reindeer enterprises which produce both wild and domestic meat.

  4. Wild genius - domestic fool? Spatial learning abilities of wild and domestic guinea pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachser Norbert

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Domestic animals and their wild relatives differ in a wide variety of aspects. The process of domestication of the domestic guinea pig (Cavia aperea f. porcellus, starting at least 4500 years ago, led to changes in the anatomy, physiology, and behaviour compared with their wild relative, the wild cavy, Cavia aperea. Although domestic guinea pigs are widely used as a laboratory animal, learning and memory capabilities are often disregarded as being very scarce. Even less is known about learning and memory of wild cavies. In this regard, one striking domestic trait is a reduction in relative brain size, which in the domesticated form of the guinea pig amounts to 13%. However, the common belief, that such a reduction of brain size in the course of domestication of different species is accomplished by less learning capabilities is not at all very well established in the literature. Indeed, domestic animals might also even outperform their wild conspecifics taking advantage of their adaptation to a man-made environment. In our study we compared the spatial learning abilities of wild and domestic guinea pigs. We expected that the two forms are different regarding their learning performance possibly related to the process of domestication. Therefore wild cavies as well as domestic guinea pigs of both sexes, aged 35 to 45 days, were tested in the Morris water maze to investigate their ability of spatial learning. Results Both, wild cavies and domestic guinea pigs were able to learn the task, proving the water maze to be a suitable test also for wild cavies. Regarding the speed of learning, male as well as female domestic guinea pigs outperformed their wild conspecifics significantly. Interestingly, only domestic guinea pigs showed a significant spatial association of the platform position, while other effective search strategies were used by wild cavies. Conclusion The results demonstrate that domestic guinea pigs do not at all

  5. Wild genius - domestic fool? Spatial learning abilities of wild and domestic guinea pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewejohann, Lars; Pickel, Thorsten; Sachser, Norbert; Kaiser, Sylvia

    2010-03-25

    Domestic animals and their wild relatives differ in a wide variety of aspects. The process of domestication of the domestic guinea pig (Cavia aperea f. porcellus), starting at least 4500 years ago, led to changes in the anatomy, physiology, and behaviour compared with their wild relative, the wild cavy, Cavia aperea. Although domestic guinea pigs are widely used as a laboratory animal, learning and memory capabilities are often disregarded as being very scarce. Even less is known about learning and memory of wild cavies. In this regard, one striking domestic trait is a reduction in relative brain size, which in the domesticated form of the guinea pig amounts to 13%. However, the common belief, that such a reduction of brain size in the course of domestication of different species is accomplished by less learning capabilities is not at all very well established in the literature. Indeed, domestic animals might also even outperform their wild conspecifics taking advantage of their adaptation to a man-made environment.In our study we compared the spatial learning abilities of wild and domestic guinea pigs. We expected that the two forms are different regarding their learning performance possibly related to the process of domestication. Therefore wild cavies as well as domestic guinea pigs of both sexes, aged 35 to 45 days, were tested in the Morris water maze to investigate their ability of spatial learning. Both, wild cavies and domestic guinea pigs were able to learn the task, proving the water maze to be a suitable test also for wild cavies. Regarding the speed of learning, male as well as female domestic guinea pigs outperformed their wild conspecifics significantly. Interestingly, only domestic guinea pigs showed a significant spatial association of the platform position, while other effective search strategies were used by wild cavies. The results demonstrate that domestic guinea pigs do not at all perform worse than their wild relatives in tests of spatial

  6. Differentiation of Meat Samples from Domestic Horses ( Equus caballus and Asiatic Wild Asses ( Equus hemionus Using a Species-Speci fi c Restriction Site in the Mitochondrial Cytochrome b Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph Kuehn

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that Asiatic wild asses ( Equus hemionus are being increasingly poached in a commercial fashion. Part of the meat is believed to reach the meat markets in the capital Ulaanbaatar. To test this hypothesis, we collected 500 meat samples between February and May 2006. To differentiate between domestic horse ( Equus caballus and wild ass meat, we developed a restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP assay based on the polymerase chain reaction (PCR. We ampli fi ed and sequenced a cytochrome b fragment (335 bp and carried out a multialignment of the generated sequences for the domestic horse, the Asiatic wild ass, the domestic donkey ( Equus asinus and the Przewalski’s horse ( Equus ferus przewalskii . We detected a species-speci fi c restriction site (AatII for the Asiatic wild ass, resulting in a speci fi c restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP band pattern. This RFLP assay represents a rapid and cost-effective method to detect wild ass meat. All of the 500 meat samples we collected and analysed within this pilot project proved to be domestic horsemeat as declared by the sales people. Thus, either the assumption that wild ass meat is sold as “cheap horse meat” is wrong, or we picked the wrong markets, products or season.

  7. Designing an Energy Drink: High School Students Learn Design and Marketing Skills in This Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Doug

    2008-01-01

    A decade ago, energy drinks were almost nonexistent in the United States, but in the past five years they've become wildly popular. In fact, the $3.4 billion energy-drink market is expected to double this year alone, and the younger generation is the market targeted by manufacturers. This article presents an energy-drink designing activity. This…

  8. Cytochrome b based genetic differentiation of Indian wild pig (Sus scrofa cristatus) and domestic pig (Sus scrofa domestica) and its use in wildlife forensics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Sandeep Kumar; Kumar, Ajit; Hussain, Syed Ainul; Vipin; Singh, Lalji

    2013-06-01

    The Indian wild pig (Sus scrofa cristatus) is a protected species and listed in the Indian Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972. The wild pig is often hunted illegally and sold in market as meat warranting punishment under law. To avoid confusion in identification of these two subspecies during wildlife forensic examinations, we describe genetic differentiation of Indian wild and domestic pigs using a molecular technique. Analysis of sequence generated from the partial fragment (421bp) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cytochrome b (Cyt b) gene exhibited unambiguous (>3%) genetic variation between Indian wild and domestic pigs. We observed nine forensically informative nucleotide sequence (FINS) variations between Indian wild and domestic pigs. The overall genetic variation described in this study is helpful in forensic identification of the biological samples of wild and domestic pigs. It also helped in differentiating the Indian wild pig from other wild pig races. This study indicates that domestic pigs in India are not descendent of the Indian wild pig, however; they are closer to the other wild pig races found in Asia and Europe. Copyright © 2012 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Helicopter training simulators: Key market factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcintosh, John

    1992-01-01

    Simulators will gain an increasingly important role in training helicopter pilots only if the simulators are of sufficient fidelity to provide positive transfer of skills to the aircraft. This must be done within an economic model of return on investment. Although rotor pilot demand is still only a small percentage of overall pilot requirements, it will grow in significance. This presentation described the salient factors influencing the use of helicopter training simulators.

  10. Investigation of avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds due to novel avian-origin influenza A(H10N8) in Nanchang City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiansheng; He, Fenglan; Hu, Maohong; Zhou, Xianfeng; Wang, Bin; Feng, Changhua; Wu, Yumei; Li, Youxing; Tu, Junling; Li, Hui; Liu, Mingbin; Chen, Haiying; Chen, Shengen

    2015-01-01

    Multiple reassortment events within poultry and wild birds had resulted in the establishment of another novel avian influenza A(H10N8) virus, and finally resulted in human death in Nanchang, China. However, there was a paucity of information on the prevalence of avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds in Nanchang area. We investigated avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds from live poultry markets, poultry countyards, delivery vehicles, and wild-bird habitats in Nanchang. We analyzed 1036 samples from wild birds and domestic poultry collected from December 2013 to February 2014. Original biological samples were tested for the presence of avian influenza virus using specific primer and probe sets of H5, H7, H9, H10 and N8 subtypes by real-time RT-PCR. In our analysis, the majority (97.98%) of positive samples were from live poultry markets. Among the poultry samples from chickens and ducks, AIV prevalence was 26.05 and 30.81%, respectively. Mixed infection of different HA subtypes was very common. Additionally, H10 subtypes coexistence with N8 was the most prevalent agent during the emergence of H10N8. This event illustrated a long-term surveillance was so helpful for pandemic preparedness and response. Copyright © 2014 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Simulation of power plant construction in competitive Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Nam Sung; Huh, Sung Chul

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in competitive Korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korean Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company. Fossil power companies are schedule to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator) will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP (System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies. Large nuclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investor's behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investor's behavior can be applied to the new investments for the

  12. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia; Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom

    2010-01-01

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  13. Vertical integration and market power. A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration. (author)

  14. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W., E-mail: dbunn@london.ed [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  15. Is a wild mammal kept and reared in captivity still a wild animal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Künzl, Christine; Kaiser, Sylvia; Meier, Edda; Sachser, Norbert

    2003-01-01

    This study compared domestic guinea pigs (Cavia aperea f. porcellus; DGP) and two different populations of the wild cavy (Cavia aperea), its ancestor, to examine whether rearing of wild mammals in captivity affects their behavior and physiological stress responses. One population of wild cavies consisted of wild-trapped animals and their first laboratory-reared offspring (WGP-1). The animals of the other population were reared in captivity for about 30 generations (WGP-30). The spontaneous behavior of each of six groups of WGP-1 and WGP-30 and nine groups of DGP, each consisting of one adult male and two adult females, was analyzed quantitatively. Blood samples of the males were taken to determine cortisol, epinephrine, and norepinephrine concentrations. In addition, the exploratory behavior of 60-day-old male WGP-1, WGP-30, and DGP was investigated in an exploration apparatus. The domesticated animals displayed significantly less aggression, but significantly more sociopositive and male courtship behavior than their wild ancestors. In addition, DGP were much less attentive to their physical environment. Surprisingly, no behavioral difference was found between WGP-1 and WGP-30. Basal cortisol concentrations did not differ between wild and domestic guinea pigs. Catecholamine concentrations, however, as well as the challenge values of cortisol, were distinctly reduced in the DGP. WGP-1 and WGP-30 did not differ with respect to their endocrine stress responses. In the exploration apparatus both forms of wild cavies were much more explorative than the domestic animals. These data suggest that the long-term breeding and rearing of wild guinea pigs in captivity do not result in significant changes in behavior and hormonal stress responses. It appears to take much longer periods of time and artificial selection by humans to bring about characters of domestication in wild animals.

  16. 29 CFR 780.114 - Wild commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.114 Wild commodities. Employees engaged in the gathering or harvesting of wild commodities such as mosses, wild rice, burls and laurel plants, the trapping of wild... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Wild commodities. 780.114 Section 780.114 Labor Regulations...

  17. Effects of Spatial Distribution of Trees on Density Estimation by Nearest Individual Sampling Method: Case Studies in Zagros Wild Pistachio Woodlands and Simulated Stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Erfanifard

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Distance methods and their estimators of density may have biased measurements unless the studied stand of trees has a random spatial pattern. This study aimed at assessing the effect of spatial arrangement of wild pistachio trees on the results of density estimation by using the nearest individual sampling method in Zagros woodlands, Iran, and applying a correction factor based on the spatial pattern of trees. A 45 ha clumped stand of wild pistachio trees was selected in Zagros woodlands and two random and dispersed stands with similar density and area were simulated. Distances from the nearest individual and neighbour at 40 sample points in a 100 × 100 m grid were measured in the three stands. The results showed that the nearest individual method with Batcheler estimator could not calculate density correctly in all stands. However, applying the correction factor based on the spatial pattern of the trees, density was measured with no significant difference in terms of the real density of the stands. This study showed that considering the spatial arrangement of trees can improve the results of the nearest individual method with Batcheler estimator in density measurement.

  18. The economic analysis of power market architectures: application to real-time market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saguan, M.

    2007-04-01

    This work contributes to the economic analysis of power market architectures. A modular framework is used to separate problems of market design in different modules. The work's goal is to study real-time market design. A two-stage market equilibrium model is used to analyse the two main real-time designs: the 'market' and the 'mechanism' (with penalty). Numerical simulations show that design applied in real-time is not neutral vis-a-vis of energy markets sequence and the competition dynamic. Designs using penalty (mechanisms) cause distortions, inefficiencies and can create barriers to entry. The size of distortions is given by the temporal position of the gate that closure the forward markets. This model has also allowed us to show the key role of real-time integration between zones and the importance of good harmonization between real-time designs of each zone. (author)

  19. A study on the comparison of antioxidant effects among wild ginseng, cultivated wild ginseng, and cultivated ginseng extracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae Young, Jang

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective : The objective of this study was to compare the antioxidant effects among wild ginseng, cultivated wild ginseng, and ginseng extracts. Methods : In vitro antioxidant activities were examined by total antioxidant capacity (TAC, oxygen radical scavenging capacity(ORAC, total phenolic content, 1, 1-Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH radical scavenging activity, inhibition of induced lipid peroxidation using liver mitochondria, reactive oxygen species(ROS scavenging effect using 2’, 7’-dichlorofluorescein(DCF fluorescence. Results : 1. TAC of 1.5 and 3.75 mg extracts was highest in cultivated wild ginseng, followed by wild ginseng and lowest in ginseng. 2. ORAC of 2, 10, and 20 μg extracts was highest in cultivated wild ginseng, followed by wild ginseng and lowest in ginseng. 3. Total phenolic content of 0.375, 0.938, and 1.875 mg extracts was highest in cultivated wild ginseng, followed by wild ginseng and lowest in ginseng. 4. DPPH(1, 1 -Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl scavenging activity between wild ginseng and cultivated wild ginseng did not differ significantly (p>0.05. 5. Induced lipid peroxidation, measured by TBARS concentration in solution containing rat liver mitochondria incubated in the presence of FeSO4/ascorbic acid was inhibited as amounts of wild ginseng, cultivated wild ginseng, and ginseng extracts increased. TBARS concentration of ginseng extracts were significantly (p<0.05 higher than wild ginseng or cultivated wild ginseng extracts. 6. DCF fluorescence intensity was decreased as concentrations of wild ginseng, cultivated wild ginseng, and ginseng extracts increased, demonstrating that ROS generation was inhibited in a concentrationdependent manner. Conclusions : In summary, the results of this study demonstrate that cultivated wild ginseng extracts had similar antioxidant activities to wild ginseng extracts and greater that of cultivated ginseng extracts.

  20. Market design for rapid demand response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kurt; Tamirat, Tseganesh Wubale

    We suggest a market design for rapid demand response in electricity markets. The solution consists of remotely controlled switches, meters, forecasting models as well as a flexible auction market to set prices and select endusers job by job. The auction market motivates truth-telling and makes...... it simple to involve the endusers in advance and to activate demand response immediately. The collective solution is analyzed and economic simulations are conducted for the case of Kenya. Kenya has been su ering from unreliable electricity supply for many years and companies and households have learned...... to adjust by investments in backup generators. We focus on turning the many private backup generators into a demand response system. The economic simulation focuses on possible distortion introduced by various ways of splitting the generated surplus from the demand response system. An auction run instantly...

  1. Marketing technology in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamegawa, Kenichi

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we incorporate a marketing technology into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model by assuming a matching friction for consumption. An improvement in matching can be interpreted as an increase in matching technology, which we call marketing technology because of similar properties. Using a simulation analysis, we confirm that a positive matching technology shock can increase output and consumption.

  2. Impulse-response analysis of the market share attraction model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a simulation-based technique to calculate impulse-response functions and their confidence intervals in a market share attraction model [MCI]. As an MCI model implies a reduced form model for the logs of relative market shares, simulation techniques have to be used to obtain

  3. Gamma irradiation protects oleic acid from oxidation: an experiment in Lactarius deliciosus wild mushroom

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandes, Ângela; Oliveira, M.B.P.P.; Antonio, Amilcar L.; Martins, Anabela; Ferreira, Isabel C.F.R.

    2012-01-01

    The short shelf-life of mushrooms is an obstacle to the distribution and marketing of the fresh product. Thus, prolonging postharvest storage, while preserving their quality, would benefit the mushroom industry as well as consumers [1]. There has been extensive research on finding the most appropriate technology for mushrooms preservation and a particular interest arises for wild species. Treatment by irradiation emerges as a possible conservation technique that has been tested successfully i...

  4. Modeling Commercial Freshwater Turtle Production on US Farms for Pet and Meat Markets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Mali

    Full Text Available Freshwater turtles are being exploited for meat, eggs, traditional medicine, and pet trade. As a response, turtle farming became a booming aquaculture industry in the past two decades, specifically in the southeastern states of the United States of America (US and across Southeast Asia. However, US turtle farms are currently producing turtles only for the pet trade while commercial trappers remain focused on catching the largest individuals from the wild. In our analyses we have created a biological and economic model that describes farming operations on a representative turtle farm in Louisiana. We first modeled current production of hatchling and yearling red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans (i.e., traditional farming for foreign and domestic pet markets, respectively. We tested the possibility of harvesting adult turtles from the breeding stock for sale to meat markets to enable alternative markets for the farmers, while decreasing the continued pressures on wild populations (i.e., non-traditional farming. Our economic model required current profit requirements of ~$13/turtle or ~$20.31/kg of meat from non-traditional farming in order to acquire the same profit as traditional farming, a value which currently exceeds market values of red-eared sliders. However, increasing competition with Asian turtle farms and decreasing hatchling prices may force the shift in the US toward producing turtles for meat markets. In addition, our model can be modified and applied to more desirable species on the meat market once more knowledge is acquired about species life histories and space requirements under farmed conditions.

  5. Modeling Commercial Freshwater Turtle Production on US Farms for Pet and Meat Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mali, Ivana; Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Grant, William E.; Feldman, Mark; Forstner, Michael R. J.

    2015-01-01

    Freshwater turtles are being exploited for meat, eggs, traditional medicine, and pet trade. As a response, turtle farming became a booming aquaculture industry in the past two decades, specifically in the southeastern states of the United States of America (US) and across Southeast Asia. However, US turtle farms are currently producing turtles only for the pet trade while commercial trappers remain focused on catching the largest individuals from the wild. In our analyses we have created a biological and economic model that describes farming operations on a representative turtle farm in Louisiana. We first modeled current production of hatchling and yearling red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans) (i.e., traditional farming) for foreign and domestic pet markets, respectively. We tested the possibility of harvesting adult turtles from the breeding stock for sale to meat markets to enable alternative markets for the farmers, while decreasing the continued pressures on wild populations (i.e., non-traditional farming). Our economic model required current profit requirements of ~$13/turtle or ~$20.31/kg of meat from non-traditional farming in order to acquire the same profit as traditional farming, a value which currently exceeds market values of red-eared sliders. However, increasing competition with Asian turtle farms and decreasing hatchling prices may force the shift in the US toward producing turtles for meat markets. In addition, our model can be modified and applied to more desirable species on the meat market once more knowledge is acquired about species life histories and space requirements under farmed conditions. PMID:26407157

  6. Modeling Commercial Freshwater Turtle Production on US Farms for Pet and Meat Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mali, Ivana; Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Grant, William E; Feldman, Mark; Forstner, Michael R J

    2015-01-01

    Freshwater turtles are being exploited for meat, eggs, traditional medicine, and pet trade. As a response, turtle farming became a booming aquaculture industry in the past two decades, specifically in the southeastern states of the United States of America (US) and across Southeast Asia. However, US turtle farms are currently producing turtles only for the pet trade while commercial trappers remain focused on catching the largest individuals from the wild. In our analyses we have created a biological and economic model that describes farming operations on a representative turtle farm in Louisiana. We first modeled current production of hatchling and yearling red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans) (i.e., traditional farming) for foreign and domestic pet markets, respectively. We tested the possibility of harvesting adult turtles from the breeding stock for sale to meat markets to enable alternative markets for the farmers, while decreasing the continued pressures on wild populations (i.e., non-traditional farming). Our economic model required current profit requirements of ~$13/turtle or ~$20.31/kg of meat from non-traditional farming in order to acquire the same profit as traditional farming, a value which currently exceeds market values of red-eared sliders. However, increasing competition with Asian turtle farms and decreasing hatchling prices may force the shift in the US toward producing turtles for meat markets. In addition, our model can be modified and applied to more desirable species on the meat market once more knowledge is acquired about species life histories and space requirements under farmed conditions.

  7. Domestication and sustainable production of wild crafted plants with special reference to the Chilean Maqui berry (Aristotelia chilensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vogel, Hermine

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The principle threats for sustainable production of wild collected medicinal plants are related to ecological factors, such as endemism, and botanical factors critical for survival, such as the collection of roots or barks or slow growing species. The sustainable way to produce raw material on a large scale would be species specific management of the wild resources that guarantees conservation of biodiversity, or bringing the species under cultivation. A checklist proposed by WHO, UICN and WWF (1993 indicates that domestication of any medicinal plant concerns plant selection and breeding, studies about propagation, cultivation techniques, plant protection, time of harvest, among others. The different domestication steps are illustrated for the Chilean maqui (Aristotelia chilensis, a wild tree whose fruits are demanded in increasing volumes by the international market because of its high antioxidant capacity. High yielding plants with good fruit quality have been selected from wild populations and accessions have been cultivated under different environmental conditions to select the most suitable genotypes for the establishment of commercial orchards.

  8. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  9. Carbon emission trading system of China: a linked market vs. separated markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Feng, Shenghao; Cai, Songfeng; Zhang, Yaxiong; Zhou, Xiang; Chen, Yanbin; Chen, Zhanming

    2013-12-01

    The Chinese government intends to upgrade its current provincial carbon emission trading pilots to a nationwide scheme by 2015. This study investigates two of scenarios: separated provincial markets and a linked inter-provincial market. The carbon abatement effects of separated and linked markets are compared using two pilot provinces of Hubei and Guangdong based on a computable general equilibrium model termed Sino-TERMCo2. Simulation results show that the linked market can improve social welfare and reduce carbon emission intensity for the nation as well as for the Hubei-Guangdong bloc compared to the separated market. However, the combined system also distributes welfare more unevenly and thus increases social inequity. On the policy ground, the current results suggest that a well-constructed, nationwide carbon market complemented with adequate welfare transfer policies can be employed to replace the current top-down abatement target disaggregation practice.

  10. Hungry for success: Urban consumer demand for wild animal products in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Drury

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising urban prosperity is escalating demand for wild animal products in Vietnam. Conservation interventions seek to influence consumer demand, but are based on a limited understanding of consumers and consumption behaviour. This report presents key findings of a structured survey (n=915 and semi-structured interviews (n=78 to investigate the social context of consumption of wild animal-derived products among the population of central Hanoi. Wildmeat is the product most commonly reported consumed-predominantly by successful, high-income, high-status males of all ages and educational levels-and is used as a medium to communicate prestige and obtain social leverage. As Vietnam′s economy grows and its population ages, demand for wildmeat and medicinal products is likely to rise. Given the difficulties of acting on personal rather than collective interests and the symbolic role of wildmeat in an extremely status-conscious society, reducing demand is challenging. Influencing consumer behaviour over the long term requires social marketing expertise and has to be informed by an in-depth understanding, achieved using appropriate methods, of the social drivers of consumer demand for wild animal products. In the meantime, strengthened enforcement is needed to prevent the demand being met from consumers prepared to pay the rising costs of finding the last individuals of a species.

  11. Market performance and distributional effects on renewable energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koutstaal, P.; Bijlsma, M.; Zwart, G.; Van Tilburg, X.; Ozdemir, O.

    2009-08-01

    A renewable obligation (RO) combined with tradable renewable energy certificates is a market-based instrument used to promote the production of electricity from renewable energy sources. A renewable obligation is an alternative for subsidies. A renewable obligation will only be an efficient instrument if certificate markets are efficient. This requires that there is no market power and no anti-competitive behaviour on the certificate market. If the current developments in Dutch renewable energy production continue, market power on a future renewable certificate market in the Netherlands will probably not be an issue, even if the RO should only rest on the retail market instead of on the whole electricity market. A renewable obligation will raise the retail price for consumers, thereby reducing consumer surplus. Simulations show that the retail electricity price increases with 30 euro per MWh to a level of 104 euro per MWh in case of a 30% renewable target. Consumer surplus is reduced with 19% compared to the baseline scenario. In contrast, a subsidy such as the Dutch SDE (Promoting Renewable Energy scheme or 'Stimulering Duurzame Energie') which is financed from the state budget has the effect to (slightly) lower the retail electricity price, thereby increasing consumer surplus. It should however be realised that the costs of the subsidy will indirectly affect electricity consumers through their tax payments.

  12. Agent-Based Simulation of Financial Markets: A Modular, Continuous-time Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe dynamics of financial markets is subject of much debate among researchers and financial experts trying to understand and explain how financial markets work and traders behave. Diversified explanations result from the complexity of markets, and the hardly observable aspects of price

  13. Do Markets Mitigate Misperceptions of Feedback?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampmann, Christian Erik; Sterman, John D.

    2014-01-01

    Experimental studies of dynamic decisionmaking generally showpoor performance.Most, however, lack market mechanisms, specifically price setting, while economic theory suggests markets should mitigate individual decision errors. We develop experimental markets to explore whether different price...... rules for each actor; results reject the hypothesis of rationality at the individual level but support behavioral decision rules consistent with bounded rationality. Simulations using the estimated decision rules reproduce key features of market dynamics. Decision timing data and verbal protocols show...

  14. Market of venison meat in Poland

    OpenAIRE

    GÓRECKA JUSTYNA

    2012-01-01

    In the Polish Hunting Association (an organization of hunting) associated more than one hundred thousand hunters. Only in 2009/2010 was shot more than 41 thousand deers, more than 162 thousand roe deers and more than 196 thousand wild boars. By shooting such quantity the wildlife animals was generated approximately 12-14 thousand tons of venison meat. The market prices of game meat in Poland are on a relatively high level, which translates into a limited interest this product in retail. Avera...

  15. Mathematical model of the SOS response regulation in wild-type Escherichia coli

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aksenov, S.V.

    1997-01-01

    Regulation of the SOS response in Escherichia coli, which is a set of inducible cellular reactions introduced after DNA damage, is due to specific interaction of LexA and RecA proteins. LexA protein is a common repressor of the genes of the SOS system, and RecA protein, once transiently activated by the so-called SOS-inducing signal, promotes LexA protein destruction. We have described the SOS regulation by means of differential equations with regard to LexA and RecA concentrations elsewhere. The 'input' function for model equations is the level of the SOS-inducing signal against time. Here we present a means for calculating the concentration of single-stranded DNA (SOS-inducing signal) as a function of time in wild-type cells after ultraviolet irradiation. With model equations one can simulate kinetic curves of SOS regulatory proteins after DNA damage to survey the SOS response kinetics. Simulation of LexA protein kinetics agrees with experimental data. We compare simulated LexA kinetic curves in wild-type and uνr - mutant bacteria, which is useful in investigating the way uνrABC-dependent excision repair modulates the SOS response kinetics. Possible applications of the model to investigating various aspects of the SOS induction are discussed

  16. DNA barcoding of wild edible mushrooms consumed by the ethnic tribes of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaund, Polashree; Joshi, S R

    2014-10-15

    Wild edible mushrooms are consumed by the tribes of Meghalaya in the North-Eastern region of India, as part of their ethnic cuisine because of their favored organoleptic characteristics and traditionally known health benefits. Majority of these mushrooms have not yet been characterized in detail and are slowly shrinking in their natural habitats owing to anthropogenic factors and climate change. In the present study, representative specimens of ten morphologically distinct groups of wild edible mushrooms available in the traditional markets and their respective forest habitats, were subjected to multi-loci molecular characterization using SSU, ITS, RPB1 and RPB2 markers. The species identities inferred for the ten mushroom types using the SSU marker matched their morphological description in the case of four morphological groups only whereas the ITS marker successfully resolved the species identity for nine out of the ten mushroom groups under study. Both the protein coding gene markers RPB1 and RPB2 successfully resolved the species identity for three out of the ten morphologically distinct groups. Finally the most likely identity of the wild edible mushrooms under study has been suggested by matching their unique morphological characteristics with the generated DNA barcoding data. The present molecular characterization reveals the ten widely consumed wild mushroom types of Meghalaya, India to be Gomphus floccosus, Lactarius deliciosus, Lactarius volemus, Cantharellus cibarius, Tricholoma viridiolivaceum, Inocybe aff. sphaerospora, Laccaria vinaceoavellanea, Albatrellus ellisii, Ramaria maculatipes and Clavulina cristata. The final species identity generated by the ITS marker matched more accurately with the morphological characteristics/appearance of the specimens indicating the ITS region as a reliable barcode for identifying wild edible mushrooms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

  18. Spatial analysis of private tanker water markets in Jordan: Using a hydroeconomic multi-agent model to simulate non-observed water transfers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim; Gawel, Erik; Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Talozi, Samer; Lachaut, Thibaut; Selby, Philip; Knox, Stephen; Gorelick, Steven; Tilmant, Amaury; Harou, Julien; Mustafa, Daanish; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Rajsekhar, Deepthi; Avisse, Nicolas; Zhang, Hua

    2017-04-01

    The country of Jordan is characterized by severe water scarcity and deficient public water supply networks. To address these issues, Jordan's water sector authorities have adopted a water rationing scheme implemented by interrupting piped water supply for several days per week. As in many arid countries around the world, this has led to the emergence of private markets of small-scale providers, delivering water via tanker trucks. On the one hand, these markets play a crucial role in meeting residential and commercial water demands by balancing the shortcomings of the public supply system. On the other hand, providers partially rely on illegal abstractions from rural ground and surface water sources, thereby circumventing regulatory efforts to conserve these resources. Private tanker water markets, therefore, provide a substantial contribution to consumer welfare while jeopardizing freshwater resource sustainability. Thus, a better understanding of these markets is of great importance for the formulation of policy interventions pursuing freshwater sustainability in a socially acceptable manner. Direct assessments of the size of these markets or their responses to policy interventions are, however, impeded by their partially illegal nature and the resulting lack of available information. To overcome this data collection challenge, we use a hydroeconomic multi-agent model developed in the Jordan Water Project to indirectly simulate country-wide tanker water market activities on the basis of demand and supply estimates. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. Finally, a spatial market algorithm

  19. Imported Asian swamp eels (Synbranchidae: Monopterus) in North American live food markets: Potential vectors of non-native parasites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nico, Leo G.; Sharp, Paul; Collins, Timothy M.

    2011-01-01

    Since the 1990s, possibly earlier, large numbers of Asian swamp eels (Synbranchidae: Monopterus spp.), some wild-caught, have been imported live from various countries in Asia and sold in ethnic food markets in cities throughout the USA and parts of Canada. Such markets are the likely introduction pathway of some, perhaps most, of the five known wild populations of Asian swamp eels present in the continental United States. This paper presents results of a pilot study intended to gather baseline data on the occurrence and abundance of internal macroparasites infecting swamp eels imported from Asia to North American retail food markets. These data are important in assessing the potential role that imported swamp eels may play as possible vectors of non-native parasites. Examination of the gastrointestinal tracts and associated tissues of 19 adult-sized swamp eels—identified as M. albus "Clade C"—imported from Vietnam and present in a U.S. retail food market revealed that 18 (95%) contained macroparasites. The 394 individual parasites recovered included a mix of nematodes, acanthocephalans, cestodes, digeneans, and pentastomes. The findings raise concern because of the likelihood that some parasites infecting market swamp eels imported from Asia are themselves Asian taxa, some possibly new to North America. The ecological risk is exacerbated because swamp eels sold in food markets are occasionally retained live by customers and a few reportedly released into the wild. For comparative purposes, M. albus "Clade C" swamp eels from a non-native population in Florida (USA) were also examined and most (84%) were found to be infected with internal macroparasites. The current level of analysis does not allow us to confirm whether these are non-native parasites.

  20. Wild food trees in Eastern Nuba Mountains, Sudan: Use diversity and threatening factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagwa Kamal-Eldin M. Salih

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted in 2010 in Eastern Nuba Mountains, Sudan to investigate ethnobotanical food and non-food uses of 16 wild edible fruit producing trees. Quantitative and qualitative information was collected from 105 individuals distributed in 7 villages using a semi-structured questionnaire. Also gathering of data was done using a number of rapid rural appraisal techniques, including key informant interviews, group discussion, secondary data sources and direct observations. Data was analysed using fidelity level and informant consensus factor methods to reveal the cultural importance of species and use category. Utilizations for timber products were found of most community importance than food usages, especially during cultivated food abundance. Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus spina-christi and Tamarindus indica fruits were asserted as most preferable over the others and of high marketability in most of the study sites. Harvesting for timber-based utilizations in addition to agricultural expansion and overgrazing were the principal threats to wild edible food producing trees in the area. The on and off prevailing armed conflict in the area make it crucial to conserve wild food trees which usually play a more significant role in securing food supply during emergency times, especially in times of famine and wars. Increasing the awareness of population on importance of wild food trees and securing alternative income sources, other than wood products, is necessary in any rural development programme aiming at securing food and sustaining its resources in the area.

  1. Component analysis of cultivated ginseng, cultivated wild ginseng, and natural wild ginseng by structural parts using HPLC method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Ju,Han

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives : The aim of this experiments is to provide an objective differentiation of ginseng, Korean and Chinese cultivated wild ginseng, and natural wild ginseng through components analysis of different parts of ginseng. Methods : Comparative analyses of ginsenoside-, ginsenoside-, and ginsenosides and from the root, stem, and leaves of ginseng, Korean and Chinese cultivated wild ginseng, and natural wild ginseng were conducted using HPLC. Results : 1. For content comparison of leaves, ginseng showed highest content of ginsenoside than other samples. Natural wild ginseng showed relatively high content of ginsenosides and than other samples. 2. For content comparison of the stem, ginseng and 10 years old Chinese cultivated wild ginseng didn't contain ginsenoside . Natural wild ginseng showed higher content of ginsenosides and than other samples. 3. For content comparison of the root, ginsenoside was found only in 5 and 10 years old Korean cultivated wild ginseng. 4. Distribution of contents by the parts of ginseng was similar in ginseng and Chinese cultivated wild ginseng. Conclusions : Above experiment data can be an important indicator for the identification of ginseng, Korean and Chinese cultivated wild ginseng, and natural wild ginseng.

  2. Inflow shortages in deregulated power markets - Reasons for concern?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bye, Torstein; Bruvoll, Annegrete; Aune, Finn Roar

    2008-01-01

    In many countries hydropower constitutes a large share of the electricity producing capacity. In the earlier regulated electricity markets, production capacities exceeded demand due to security of supply concerns. The present deregulated markets base investments upon profitability alone, and security of supply issues are claimed to be less important. Market operators trust the pricing mechanism in competitive markets to clear. Then low inflow constitutes a less problem. Several markets, both under regulated and deregulated regimes, have faced serious droughts. Some of them have experienced problems with market clearance (Chile, Brazil, California) while other markets functioned well (The Nordic market). Important features to the market response are the flexibility of demand, the pattern of inflow shortage, the storage capacities, the possibility of trade between regions with different production technologies, and the market design and concentration. We apply an empirical based market model to simulate the effects under two inflow shortage scenarios in an international market with combined hydro and thermal capacities and restricted transmission capacities. We compare the scenarios with actual events and show that the model and the real market outcome are comparable. The simulations do not reveal any problems with the functioning of the market, which should calm down the anxiousness about security of supply in deregulated markets with stochastic energy supply

  3. Inflow shortages in deregulated power markets - Reasons for concern?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bye, Torstein; Bruvoll, Annegrete; Aune, Finn Roar [Research Department, Statistics Norway, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo (Norway)

    2008-07-15

    In many countries hydropower constitutes a large share of the electricity producing capacity. In the earlier regulated electricity markets, production capacities exceeded demand due to security of supply concerns. The present deregulated markets base investments upon profitability alone, and security of supply issues are claimed to be less important. Market operators trust the pricing mechanism in competitive markets to clear. Then low inflow constitutes a less problem. Several markets, both under regulated and deregulated regimes, have faced serious droughts. Some of them have experienced problems with market clearance (Chile, Brazil, California) while other markets functioned well (The Nordic market). Important features to the market response are the flexibility of demand, the pattern of inflow shortage, the storage capacities, the possibility of trade between regions with different production technologies, and the market design and concentration. We apply an empirical based market model to simulate the effects under two inflow shortage scenarios in an international market with combined hydro and thermal capacities and restricted transmission capacities. We compare the scenarios with actual events and show that the model and the real market outcome are comparable. The simulations do not reveal any problems with the functioning of the market, which should calm down the anxiousness about security of supply in deregulated markets with stochastic energy supply. (author)

  4. Environmental Assessment for Wild Horse Gathering Inside and Outside Wild Horse Herd Management Areas

    OpenAIRE

    United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management

    1999-01-01

    Enclosed you will find the Environmental Assessment (EA) which describes the impacts of gathering wild horses in the Rock Springs Field Office area. Gathering wild horses would take place in the Great Divide Basin, White Mountain, Little Colorado, and Salt Wells Creek Wild Horse Herd Management Areas (HMA) and in an area known as the North Baxter/Jack Morrow area (outside the HMAs).

  5. Consumer preferences for farmed organic salmon and eco-labelled wild salmon in Denmark1

    OpenAIRE

    Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Asche, Frank; Bronnmann, Julia; Nielsen, Max; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Sustainably produced food products have rapidly grown in popularity within the last years. Eco-labeling systems to indicate the environmental sustainability of product have also been implemented in the seafood market, with the MSC label for wild fish as the leading one. However, it is not clear whether consumers really notice the values behind an eco-label and how important these attributes are in their purchasing decision. This study analyzes data from a large household scanner panel to inve...

  6. Where is the game? Wild meat products authentication in South Africa: a case study

    OpenAIRE

    D?Amato, Maria Eugenia; Alechine, Evguenia; Cloete, Kevin Wesley; Davison, Sean; Corach, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Background Wild animals? meat is extensively consumed in South Africa, being obtained either from ranching, farming or hunting. To test the authenticity of the commercial labels of meat products in the local market, we obtained DNA sequence information from 146 samples (14 beef and 132 game labels) for barcoding cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and partial cytochrome b and mitochondrial fragments. The reliability of species assignments were evaluated using BLAST searches in GenBank, maximum lik...

  7. Wild genius - domestic fool? Spatial learning abilities of wild and domestic guinea pigs

    OpenAIRE

    Sachser Norbert; Pickel Thorsten; Lewejohann Lars; Kaiser Sylvia

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Domestic animals and their wild relatives differ in a wide variety of aspects. The process of domestication of the domestic guinea pig (Cavia aperea f. porcellus), starting at least 4500 years ago, led to changes in the anatomy, physiology, and behaviour compared with their wild relative, the wild cavy, Cavia aperea. Although domestic guinea pigs are widely used as a laboratory animal, learning and memory capabilities are often disregarded as being very scarce. Even less i...

  8. Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Oliveira, Fernando S.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we seek to develop some model-based insights into this two-stage dynamic process linking market interventions with individual company performance through strategic asset trading and structural change. Essentially, this is achieved with an evolutionary, agent-based, computational model that is capable of simulating how a Cournot player, by interacting with his opponents, can rationally adapt his generation portfolio in order to increase value. The functional capabilities of the proposed computational approach facilitate: 1) The study of asset portfolio adaptation as a result of rational choice. This cannot be achieved with a static Cournot model that, by construction, does not take into account endogenously the rational choice of the installed capacities and technologies used by the players. Further, this evolutionary computational model internalizes the ''path dependencies'' as one of the determinants of portfolio adaptation. 2) The analysis of market structure as an endogenous co-evolutionary process, enabling an adaptive view of the impact of short-term regulatory policies on the evolution of the industry's market structure. 3) The analysis of the behavioural implications f the rational adaptation of players to regulatory interventions. This analysis is carried-out by modelling how players trade their assets in order to improve the value of their portfolio. Our model therefore incorporates two main components: a plant trading game and an electricity market game. The plant trading game simulates the interaction between electricity companies that trade generation plants. The electricity market game simulates the performance of portfolios of plant in an electricity market assuming Cournot players. From this two-stage modelling platform, we analyze two sorts of anti-trust interventions: (a) the ''structural changes'' of enforced divestiture and (b) the ''behavioural remedies'' (sic Competition commission) of capacity availability requirements. We have

  9. Molecular dynamics simulation studies of the wild type and E92Q/N155H mutant of Elvitegravir-resistance HIV-1 integrase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qi; Cheng, Xiaolin; Wei, Dongqing; Xu, Qin

    2015-03-01

    Although Elvitegravir (EVG) is a newly developed antiretrovirals drug to treat the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), drug resistance has already been found in clinic, such as E92Q/N155H and Q148H/G140S. Several structural investigations have already been reported to reveal the molecular mechanism of the drug resistance. As full length crystal structure for HIV-1 integrase is still unsolved, we herein use the crystal structure of the full length prototype foamy virus (PFV) in complex with virus DNA and inhibitor Elvitegravir as a template to construct the wild type and E92Q/N155H mutant system of HIV-1 integrase. Molecular dynamic simulations was used to revel the binding mode and the drug resistance of the EVG ligand in E92Q/N155H. Several important interactions were discovered between the mutated residues and the residues in the active site of the E92Q/N155H double mutant pattern, and cross correlation and clustering methods were used for detailed analysis. The results from the MD simulation studies will be used to guide the experimental efforts of developing novel inhibitors against drug-resistant HIV integrase mutants.

  10. A maximum entropy model for predicting wild boar distribution in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Bosch

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Wild boar (Sus scrofa populations in many areas of the Palearctic including the Iberian Peninsula have grown continuously over the last century. This increase has led to numerous different types of conflicts due to the damage these mammals can cause to agriculture, the problems they create in the conservation of natural areas, and the threat they pose to animal health. In the context of both wildlife management and the design of health programs for disease control, it is essential to know how wild boar are distributed on a large spatial scale. Given that the quantifying of the distribution of wild species using census techniques is virtually impossible in the case of large-scale studies, modeling techniques have thus to be used instead to estimate animals’ distributions, densities, and abundances. In this study, the potential distribution of wild boar in Spain was predicted by integrating data of presence and environmental variables into a MaxEnt approach. We built and tested models using 100 bootstrapped replicates. For each replicate or simulation, presence data was divided into two subsets that were used for model fitting (60% of the data and cross-validation (40% of the data. The final model was found to be accurate with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC value of 0.79. Six explanatory variables for predicting wild boar distribution were identified on the basis of the percentage of their contribution to the model. The model exhibited a high degree of predictive accuracy, which has been confirmed by its agreement with satellite images and field surveys.

  11. Secure sustainable seafood from developing countries. Require improvements as conditions for market access

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sampson, G.S.; Sanchirico, J.N.; Roheim, C.A.; Bush, S.R.; Taylor, J.E.; Allison, E.A.; Anderson, J.L.; Ban, N.C.; Fujita, R.; Jupiter, S.; Wilson, J.R.

    2015-01-01

    Demand for sustainably certified wild-caught fish and crustaceans is increasingly shaping global seafood markets. Retailers such as Walmart in the United States, Sainsbury's in the United Kingdom, and Carrefour in France, and processors such as Canadianbased High Liner Foods, have promised to source

  12. Automatic electricity markets data extraction for realistic multi-agent simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira, Ivo F.; Sousa, Tiago M.; Praca, Isabel

    2014-01-01

    markets data available on-line; capability of dealing with different file formats and types, some of them inserted by the user, resulting from information obtained not on-line but based on the possible collaboration with market entities; definition and implementation of database gathering information from...

  13. Crop-to-wild gene flow and its fitness consequences for a wild fruit tree: Towards a comprehensive conservation strategy of the wild apple in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurtey, Alice; Cornille, Amandine; Shykoff, Jacqui A; Snirc, Alodie; Giraud, Tatiana

    2017-02-01

    Crop-to-wild gene flow can reduce the fitness and genetic integrity of wild species. Malus sylvestris , the European crab-apple fruit tree in particular, is threatened by the disappearance of its habitat and by gene flow from its domesticated relative , Malus domestica . With the aims of evaluating threats for M. sylvestris and of formulating recommendations for its conservation, we studied here, using microsatellite markers and growth experiments: (i) hybridization rates in seeds and trees from a French forest and in seeds used for replanting crab apples in agrosystems and in forests, (ii) the impact of the level of M. domestica ancestry on individual tree fitness and (iii) pollen dispersal abilities in relation to crop-to-wild gene flow. We found substantial contemporary crop-to-wild gene flow in crab-apple tree populations and superior fitness of hybrids compared to wild seeds and seedlings. Using paternity analyses, we showed that pollen dispersal could occur up to 4 km and decreased with tree density. The seed network furnishing the wild apple reintroduction agroforestry programmes was found to suffer from poor genetic diversity, introgressions and species misidentification. Overall, our findings indicate supported threats for the European wild apple steering us to provide precise recommendations for its conservation.

  14. Chemical composition of oils from wild almond (Prunus scoparia and wild pistachio (Pistacia atlantica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jafari Mohammadi, S. A.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the fatty acids, sterols and triacylglycerol compositions as well as the amount of tocopherols, total phenols and pigments wild almond and cold pressed wild pistachio oils. Triacylglycerols, tocopherols and pigments were analyzed with HPLC, fatty acids and sterols with gas chromatography, and total phenols photometrically. The main fatty acids in both samples were oleic, linoleic and palmitic acids. The most predominant TAG species are SLL + PLO (21.83% in wild pistachio oil and OOO (47.27% in wild almond oil. Pheophytin a was the major pigment in wild pistachio oil. There were no pigments detected in wild almond oil. Total phenols were 57.6 mg kg-1 oil for wild pistachio and 45.3 mg kg-1 oil for wild almond oil.El objetivo de este estudio fue determinar la composición en ácidos grasos, esteroles, triglicéridos, así como tocoferoles, fenoles totales y pigmentos de aceites de almendras y pistachos silvestres prensados en frío. Triglicéridos (TAG, tocoferoles y pigmentos se analizaron mediante HPLC, los ácidos grasos y esteroles mediante cromatografía de gases, y los fenoles totales espectrofotométricamente. Los principales ácidos grasos de ambas especies fueron los ácidos oleico, linoleico y palmítico. Las especies de TAG predominantes son SLL + OLP (21,83% en el pistacho silvestre y OOO (47,27% en almendras silvestre. Feofitina a es un pigmento importante en los aceites de pistacho silvestre. No se detectó pigmentos en los aceites de almendras silvestres. Los fenoles totales fueron 57,6 mg kg-1 y 45,3 mg kg-1 en los aceites de pistacho silvestre y de almendra silvestre respectivamente.

  15. Insights into the folding and unfolding processes of wild-type and mutated SH3 domain by molecular dynamics and replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Ting Chu

    Full Text Available Src-homology regions 3 (SH3 domain is essential for the down-regulation of tyrosine kinase activity. Mutation A39V/N53P/V55L of SH3 is found to be relative to the urgent misfolding diseases. To gain insight, the human and gallus SH3 domains (PDB ID: 1NYG and 2LP5, including 58 amino acids in each protein, were selected for MD simulations (Amber11, ff99SB force field and cluster analysis to investigate the influence of mutations on the spatial structure of the SH3 domain. It is found that the large conformational change of mutations mainly exists in three areas in the vicinity of protein core: RT loop, N-src loop, distal β-hairpin to 310 helix. The C-terminus of the mutated gallus SH3 is disordered after simulation, which represents the intermediate state of aggregation. The disappeared strong Hbond net in the mutated human and gallus systems will make these mutated proteins looser than the wild-type proteins. Additionally, by performing the REMD simulations on the gallus SH3 domain, the mutated domain is found to have an obvious effect on the unfolding process. These studies will be helpful for further aggregation mechanisms investigations on SH3 family.

  16. A bargaining model of regulated markets' integration with an application to electricity supply market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Jingyuan; Smeers, Y.; Canon, E.

    1995-01-01

    An integrated market organized by regulated electric utilities is modelled. It is assumed that, given a price vector for the exchange of electricity between each pair of neighboring utilities, utilities independently maximize their own domestic social welfare subject to the zero profit constraint. An equilibrium price vector for exchanges among utilities is defined as the one which clears the exchanges for all pair of business partners. A single piecewise linear model is formulated for computing market equilibria. The model is used to simulate the electricity supply market organized by 11 western European countries

  17. Fitness of crop-wild hybrid sunflower under competitive conditions: implications for crop-to-wild introgression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Kristin L; Emry, D Jason; Snow, Allison A; Kost, Matthew A; Pace, Brian A; Alexander, Helen M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the likelihood and extent of introgression of novel alleles in hybrid zones requires comparison of lifetime fitness of parents and hybrid progeny. However, fitness differences among cross types can vary depending on biotic conditions, thereby influencing introgression patterns. Based on past work, we predicted that increased competition would enhance introgression between cultivated and wild sunflower (Helianthus annuus) by reducing fitness advantages of wild plants. To test this prediction, we established a factorial field experiment in Kansas, USA where we monitored the fitness of four cross types (Wild, F1, F2, and BCw hybrids) under different levels of interspecific and intraspecific competition. Intraspecific manipulations consisted both of density of competitors and of frequency of crop-wild hybrids. We recorded emergence of overwintered seeds, survival to reproduction, and numbers of seeds produced per reproductive plant. We also calculated two compound fitness measures: seeds produced per emerged seedling and seeds produced per planted seed. Cross type and intraspecific competition affected emergence and survival to reproduction, respectively. Further, cross type interacted with competitive treatments to influence all other fitness traits. More intense competition treatments, especially related to density of intraspecific competitors, repeatedly reduced the fitness advantage of wild plants when considering seeds produced per reproductive plant and per emerged seedling, and F2 plants often became indistinguishable from the wilds. Wild fitness remained superior when seedling emergence was also considered as part of fitness, but the fitness of F2 hybrids relative to wild plants more than quadrupled with the addition of interspecific competitors and high densities of intraspecific competitors. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, lower hybrid frequency reduced wild fitness advantage. These results emphasize the importance of taking a full life cycle

  18. Fitness of crop-wild hybrid sunflower under competitive conditions: implications for crop-to-wild introgression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin L Mercer

    Full Text Available Understanding the likelihood and extent of introgression of novel alleles in hybrid zones requires comparison of lifetime fitness of parents and hybrid progeny. However, fitness differences among cross types can vary depending on biotic conditions, thereby influencing introgression patterns. Based on past work, we predicted that increased competition would enhance introgression between cultivated and wild sunflower (Helianthus annuus by reducing fitness advantages of wild plants. To test this prediction, we established a factorial field experiment in Kansas, USA where we monitored the fitness of four cross types (Wild, F1, F2, and BCw hybrids under different levels of interspecific and intraspecific competition. Intraspecific manipulations consisted both of density of competitors and of frequency of crop-wild hybrids. We recorded emergence of overwintered seeds, survival to reproduction, and numbers of seeds produced per reproductive plant. We also calculated two compound fitness measures: seeds produced per emerged seedling and seeds produced per planted seed. Cross type and intraspecific competition affected emergence and survival to reproduction, respectively. Further, cross type interacted with competitive treatments to influence all other fitness traits. More intense competition treatments, especially related to density of intraspecific competitors, repeatedly reduced the fitness advantage of wild plants when considering seeds produced per reproductive plant and per emerged seedling, and F2 plants often became indistinguishable from the wilds. Wild fitness remained superior when seedling emergence was also considered as part of fitness, but the fitness of F2 hybrids relative to wild plants more than quadrupled with the addition of interspecific competitors and high densities of intraspecific competitors. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, lower hybrid frequency reduced wild fitness advantage. These results emphasize the importance of taking

  19. Fitness of Crop-Wild Hybrid Sunflower under Competitive Conditions: Implications for Crop-to-Wild Introgression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Kristin L.; Emry, D. Jason; Snow, Allison A.; Kost, Matthew A.; Pace, Brian A.; Alexander, Helen M.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the likelihood and extent of introgression of novel alleles in hybrid zones requires comparison of lifetime fitness of parents and hybrid progeny. However, fitness differences among cross types can vary depending on biotic conditions, thereby influencing introgression patterns. Based on past work, we predicted that increased competition would enhance introgression between cultivated and wild sunflower (Helianthus annuus) by reducing fitness advantages of wild plants. To test this prediction, we established a factorial field experiment in Kansas, USA where we monitored the fitness of four cross types (Wild, F1, F2, and BCw hybrids) under different levels of interspecific and intraspecific competition. Intraspecific manipulations consisted both of density of competitors and of frequency of crop-wild hybrids. We recorded emergence of overwintered seeds, survival to reproduction, and numbers of seeds produced per reproductive plant. We also calculated two compound fitness measures: seeds produced per emerged seedling and seeds produced per planted seed. Cross type and intraspecific competition affected emergence and survival to reproduction, respectively. Further, cross type interacted with competitive treatments to influence all other fitness traits. More intense competition treatments, especially related to density of intraspecific competitors, repeatedly reduced the fitness advantage of wild plants when considering seeds produced per reproductive plant and per emerged seedling, and F2 plants often became indistinguishable from the wilds. Wild fitness remained superior when seedling emergence was also considered as part of fitness, but the fitness of F2 hybrids relative to wild plants more than quadrupled with the addition of interspecific competitors and high densities of intraspecific competitors. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, lower hybrid frequency reduced wild fitness advantage. These results emphasize the importance of taking a full life cycle

  20. Lentinula edodes based GIS mapping, biometabolites and antiinflamatory activity of wild edible mushrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaund, Polashree; Joshi, S R

    2016-03-01

    The biodiversity rich state of Meghalaya, India located in the realms of mega-biodiversity hotspots, is home to numerous species of wild edible macrofungi that are used extensively by the mycophillic ethnic population, as a part of their traditional cuisine and medicine systems. However, habitat loss, due to deforestation and climate change, is destroying the natural population of these mushrooms, depleting their availability to the local communities. In the present investigation, a GIS guided habitat search, using Lentinula edodes as a representative species, was used in mapping the habitats of wild edible macrofungi of the study region. Sampling of around 4 000 specimens per distinct morphological type available in the traditional markets and “sacred grove” forests indicated presence of ten common genera, belonging to nine different families of wild edible mushrooms. Nutritional profiling of the representative species Lentinula edodes was carried out by evaluation of its moisture, total fat, crude protein and carbohydrates contents by standard methods. Similarly, bioactive components determination was performed by estimation of total phenols, flavonoids, ascorbic acid, β-carotene and lycopenes. Bioactivity of the mushrooms extracts was studied using the DPPH radical scavenging and Human Red Blood Cell (HRBC) membrane stabilization assays. The present investigation successfully attempted to explore remote sensing technologies and GIS (Geographic Information System) based system to predict the natural habitats of wild edible mushrooms of Meghalaya, India which we believe will lead to the generation of a mushroom specific non-wood forest resource mapping system in the near future. Results of nutritional profiling and biological activity studies on the representative species of wild edible mushrooms from the studied region revealed that it is a rich source of essential nutrients and antioxidants.

  1. Engaging Marketing Students: Student Operated Businesses in a Simulated World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell-Bennett, Rebekah; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn R.; Kuhn, Kerri-Ann

    2010-01-01

    Engaged students are committed and more likely to continue their university studies. Subsequently, they are less resource intensive from a university's perspective. This article details an experiential second-year marketing course that requires students to develop real products and services to sell on two organized market days. In the course,…

  2. A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Solar collectors and heat pump: Market review and preliminary simulation results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tepe, Rainer; Roennelid, Mats

    2002-01-01

    Heating systems that combine solar collectors and a heat pump available on the market in Sweden have been studied. A majority of the systems found combine the solar collectors with a ground source heat pump. The technology for combining the collectors and the heat pump does however vary considerably. In the most simple systems, the collectors heat the return water from the heat pump, i.e. the collectors are used for raising the temperature in the boreholes for the heat pump. In the advanced systems, the solar heat is used for tap water, space heating and for raising the temperature of the heat pump's evaporator. There exist only very few comparative evaluations of the contributions from solar collectors in heat pump systems, and there is a need for finding the potential for this technique. In the present study, results are reported from preliminary simulations of solar collectors and ground source heat pumps installed in one-family houses. Simulations are made for two heating loads: 8,650 and 16,500 kWh/year resp., and a hot water load of 3,000 kWh/year. The study shows that: the temperature of the borehole decreases when solar collectors are not used (about 1.2 deg C in three years): 8 m 2 glazed solar collectors used for hot water production can reduce the electricity consumption with up to 13%, with best results in the house with low heating load: 50 m 2 unglazed solar collectors coupled to the evaporator or the borehole can give reductions of up to 14%, largest reduction in the house with high heating load, where the heat extraction from the borehole is large: the unglazed collectors have the highest economic potential, and can be cost effective for houses with high heating load: the simulations do not include a thorough system optimization, better results can be expected from continued optimization work

  4. The four P's in social simulation, a perspective on how marketing could benefit from the use of social simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, Wander

    Marketers employ the four P's - product, price, placement and promotion - in trying to optimize the performance of their products on a market. Both researchers and practitioners in the field of marketing will benefit from increasing their understanding of how the four P's relate to market dynamics

  5. Stochastic–multiobjective market equilibrium analysis of a demand response program in energy market under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Analyze the impact of a demand response program under uncertainty. • Stochastic Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated. • Case study of the Taiwanese electric power market is conducted. • Demand response decreases power price, generation, and emissions. • Demand uncertainty increases energy price and supply risk in the results. - Abstract: In the electricity market, demand response programs are designed to shift peak demand and enhance system reliability. A demand response program can reduce peak energy demand, power transmission congestion, or high energy-price conditions by changing consumption patterns. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of a demand response program in the energy market, under demand uncertainty. A stochastic–multiobjective Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated to simulate demand response in an uncertain energy market. Then, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions and a linear complementarity problem are derived for the stochastic Nash–Cournot model. Accordingly, the linear complementarity problem is solved and its stochastic market equilibrium solution is determined by using a general algebraic modeling system. Additionally, the case of the Taiwanese electric power market is taken up here, and the results show that a demand response program is capable of reducing peak energy consumption, energy price, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that demand response program decreases electricity price by 2–10%, total electricity generation by 0.5–2%, and carbon dioxide emissions by 0.5–2.5% in the Taiwanese power market. In the simulation, demand uncertainty leads to an 2–7% increase in energy price and supply risk in the market. Additionally, tradeoffs between cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.

  6. Sustainable design options for the German electricity market. A comparison of the energy-only market with capacity markets; Zukunftsfaehige Designoptionen fuer den deutschen Strommarkt. Ein Vergleich des Energy-only-Marktes mit Kapazitaetsmaerkten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keles, Dogan; Renz, Lea; Bublitz, Andreas; Zimmermann, Florian; Genoese, Massimo; Fichtner, Wolf [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Energiewirtschaft; Hoefling, Holger; Sensfuss, Frank; Winkler, Jenny [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2016-04-01

    This study intensively discusses the further developments of the electricity market design in Germany based on substantial scientific insights. For this purpose, an agent-based simulation model is applied to evaluate the operability of the energy only market extended with a strategic reserve. Furthermore, the effects of the implementation of a centralized or decentralized capacity market are analyzed.

  7. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaotao; Ping, Jing; Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China's stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed.

  8. Crop to wild gene flow: Does more sophisticated research provide better risk assessment?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jong, Tom J. de; Rong, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Genes can sometimes flow from genetically modified crops to wild plants. ► The probability can be predicted from seed production of hybrids and backcrosses. ► Nevertheless predictions about introgression remain uncertain. ► One should be reluctant to ask too much detail in Environmental Risk Assessment. ► Instead possible harm should have a more central place. -- Abstract: Research into introgression, the permanent incorporation of alleles of one species into another, is flourishing and gives new insights into evolution and speciation. The possible transfer of transgenes from crop species to wild relatives is of major concern for regulators. Applicants that want to introduce a genetically modified (GM) crop on the European market need to indicate the likelihood of introgression and its anticipated effects in an Environmental Risk Analysis (ERA). The European Food Safety Association (EFSA) and competent authorities of different countries evaluate the ERA. Predicting which crop alleles will or will not be permanently incorporated into wild populations requires, apart from information on seed production of hybrids, information on how these crop alleles are associated with fitness. Advances in genetics open new avenues to address this question in more detail. We argue, however, that, even with the best techniques, predicting introgression from crop to wild species will always have a considerable margin of uncertainty. One must therefore be prudent to demand more detailed research for the ERA, especially since the possible harm of transgenes in natural populations remains so poorly defined by regulators

  9. Is there any overtrading in stock markets? The moderating role of big five personality traits and gender in a unilateral trend stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Wang, Haocheng; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shuyi

    2014-01-01

    Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1) Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2) The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3) The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed.

  10. Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

  11. Intertextuality and Intermediality in Oscar Wilde's Salome : How Oscar Wilde Become a Postmodernist

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Kornelis; Bennett, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This paper approaches Wilde's play from three separate directions: intertextual, visual and musical. Comparing ideas and techniques in the play to the positions of postmodern thinkers, this chapter argues that Wilde sought to incorporate literary and philosophical elements more common to the late

  12. Population genetics of foxtail millet and its wild ancestor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yongfang

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Foxtail millet (Setaria italica (L. P. Beauv., one of the most ancient domesticated crops, is becoming a model system for studying biofuel crops and comparative genomics in the grasses. However, knowledge on the level of genetic diversity and linkage disequilibrium (LD is very limited in this crop and its wild ancestor, green foxtail (Setaria viridis (L. P. Beauv.. Such information would help us to understand the domestication process of cultivated species and will allow further research in these species, including association mapping and identification of agricultural significant genes involved in domestication. Results In this study, we surveyed DNA sequence for nine loci across 50 accessions of cultivated foxtail millet and 34 of its wild progenitor. We found a low level of genetic diversity in wild green foxtail (θ = 0.0059, θ means Watterson's estimator of θ. Despite of a 55% loss of its wild diversity, foxtail millet still harbored a considerable level of diversity (θ = 0.0027 when compared to rice and sorghum (θ = 0.0024 and 0.0034, respectively. The level of LD in the domesticated foxtail millet extends to 1 kb, while it decayed rapidly to a negligible level within 150 bp in wild green foxtail. Using coalescent simulation, we estimated the bottleneck severity at k = 0.6095 when ρ/θ = 1. These results indicated that the domestication bottleneck of foxtail millet was more severe than that of maize but slightly less pronounced than that of rice. Conclusions The results in this study establish a general framework for the domestication history of foxtail millet. The low level of genetic diversity and the increased level of LD in foxtail millet are mainly caused by a population bottleneck, although gene flow from foxtail millet to green foxtail is another factor that may have shaped the pattern of genetic diversity of these two related gene pools. The knowledge provided in this study will benefit future population

  13. Insights into the binding specificity of wild type and mutated wheat germ agglutinin towards Neu5Acα(2-3)Gal: a study by in silico mutations and molecular dynamics simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parasuraman, Ponnusamy; Murugan, Veeramani; Selvin, Jeyasigamani F A; Gromiha, M Michael; Fukui, Kazuhiko; Veluraja, Kasinadar

    2014-08-01

    Wheat germ agglutinin (WGA) is a plant lectin, which specifically recognizes the sugars NeuNAc and GlcNAc. Mutated WGA with enhanced binding specificity can be used as biomarkers for cancer. In silico mutations are performed at the active site of WGA to enhance the binding specificity towards sialylglycans, and molecular dynamics simulations of 20 ns are carried out for wild type and mutated WGAs (WGA1, WGA2, and WGA3) in complex with sialylgalactose to examine the change in binding specificity. MD simulations reveal the change in binding specificity of wild type and mutated WGAs towards sialylgalactose and bound conformational flexibility of sialylgalactose. The mutated polar amino acid residues Asn114 (S114N), Lys118 (G118K), and Arg118 (G118R) make direct and water mediated hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic interactions with sialylgalactose. An analysis of possible hydrogen bonds, hydrophobic interactions, total pair wise interaction energy between active site residues and sialylgalactose and MM-PBSA free energy calculation reveals the plausible binding modes and the role of water in stabilizing different binding modes. An interesting observation is that the binding specificity of mutated WGAs (cyborg lectin) towards sialylgalactose is found to be higher in double point mutation (WGA3). One of the substituted residues Arg118 plays a crucial role in sugar binding. Based on the interactions and energy calculations, it is concluded that the order of binding specificity of WGAs towards sialylgalactose is WGA3 > WGA1 > WGA2 > WGA. On comparing with the wild type, double point mutated WGA (WGA3) exhibits increased specificity towards sialylgalactose, and thus, it can be effectively used in targeted drug delivery and as biological cell marker in cancer therapeutics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Bioactivities and Health Benefits of Wild Fruits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya Li

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Wild fruits are exotic or underutilized. Wild fruits contain many bioactive compounds, such as anthocyanins and flavonoids. Many studies have shown that wild fruits possess various bioactivities and health benefits, such as free radical scavenging, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial, and anticancer activity. Therefore, wild fruits have the potential to be developed into functional foods or pharmaceuticals to prevent and treat several chronic diseases. In the present article, we review current knowledge about the bioactivities and health benefits of wild fruits, which is valuable for the exploitation and utilization of wild fruits.

  15. Marketing margins and agricultural technology in Mozambique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Robinson, Sherman

    2000-01-01

    of improved agricultural technology and lower marketing margins yield welfare gains across the economy. In addition, a combined scenario reveals significant synergy effects, as gains exceed the sum of gains from the individual scenarios. Relative welfare improvements are higher for poor rural households......Improvements in agricultural productivity and reductions in marketing costs in Mozambique are analysed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model incorporates detailed marketing margins and separates household demand for marketed and home-produced goods. Individual simulations...

  16. Emission trading scheme: market analysis and forecasting scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clo, Stefano

    2006-01-01

    This article offers an economic analysis of the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and its institutional framework; we introduce an economic model able to simulate some possible market price's scenarios. The aim of this article is to offer a better market fundamentals' comprehension and to help economic agents building their expectations about market's development [it

  17. Model of Market Share Affected by Social Media Reputation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Akira; Kawahata, Yasuko; Goto, Ujo

    Proposal of market theory to put the effect of social media into account is presented in this paper. The standard market share model in economics is employed as a market theory and the effect of social media is considered quantitatively using the mathematical model for hit phenomena. Using this model, we can estimate the effect of social media in market share as a simple market model simulation using our proposed method.

  18. Market disruption, cascading effects, and economic recovery:a life-cycle hypothesis model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprigg, James A.

    2004-11-01

    This paper builds upon previous work [Sprigg and Ehlen, 2004] by introducing a bond market into a model of production and employment. The previous paper described an economy in which households choose whether to enter the labor and product markets based on wages and prices. Firms experiment with prices and employment levels to maximize their profits. We developed agent-based simulations using Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate that multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment, but also suffer from market noise stemming from consumer churn. In this paper we introduce a bond market as a mechanism for household savings. We simulate an economy of continuous overlapping generations in which each household grows older in the course of the simulation and continually revises its target level of savings according to a life-cycle hypothesis. Households can seek employment, earn income, purchase goods, and contribute to savings until they reach the mandatory retirement age; upon retirement households must draw from savings in order to purchase goods. This paper demonstrates the simultaneous convergence of product, labor, and savings markets to their calculated equilibria, and simulates how a disruption to a productive sector will create cascading effects in all markets. Subsequent work will use similar models to simulate how disruptions, such as terrorist attacks, would interplay with consumer confidence to affect financial markets and the broader economy.

  19. Wild lettuce (Lactuca virosa) toxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besharat, Sima; Besharat, Mahsa; Jabbari, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Wild lettuce (Lactuca virosa) can cause toxic effects when eaten. Wild lettuce grows in the north of Iran and some natives consume it unaware of its adverse side effects. We describe eight patients with manifestations of wild lettuce toxicity, admitted to a general hospital affiliated to the Golestan University of Medical Sciences. All the patients recovered (although one had to spend 48 h in the intensive care unit) and no chronic complications were reported. A clinical suspicion of toxicity caused by wild lettuce intake and an accurate history formed the basis of the diagnosis. Conservative treatment, vital sign monitoring, control of patient intake and output, and reducing patient agitation provided the basis for treatment.

  20. The Influence of Investor Number on a Microscopic Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellthaler, T.

    The stock market model of Levy, Persky, Solomon is simulated for much larger numbers of investors. While small markets can lead to realistically looking prices, the resulting prices of large markets oscillate smoothly in a semi-regular fashion.

  1. Toxoplasmosis in wild and domestic animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toxoplasma gondii is widely distributed in wild and domestic animals. The present chapter reviews toxoplasmosis in wild and domestic animals. Coverage in wild animal species is limited to confirmed cases of toxoplasmosis, cases with parasite isolation, cases with parasite detection by PCR, and exper...

  2. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav; Vosvrda, Miloslav

    2018-01-01

    We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized facts such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model utility from the other side and look for the combination of parameters which yields return dynamics of the efficient market in the view of the efficient market hypothesis. Working with the Ising model, we are able to present nicely interpretable results as the model is based on only two parameters. Apart from showing the results of our simulation study, we offer a new interpretation of the Ising model parameters via inverse temperature and entropy. We show that in fact market frictions (to a certain level) and herding behavior of the market participants do not go against market efficiency but what is more, they are needed for the markets to be efficient.

  3. Molecular dynamics simulation studies of the wild type and E92Q/N155H mutant of Elvitegravir-resistance HIV-1 integrase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Qi [Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ., Shanghai (China). State Key Lab. of Microbial Metabolism and College of Life Science and Biotechnology; Cheng, Xiaolin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Center for Molecular Biophysics; Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Biochemistry and Cellular and Molecular Biology; Wei, Dongqing [Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ., Shanghai (China). State Key Lab. of Microbial Metabolism and College of Life Science and Biotechnology; Xu, Qin [Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ., Shanghai (China). State Key Lab. of Microbial Metabolism and College of Life Science and Biotechnology

    2014-11-06

    Although Elvitegravir (EVG) is a newly developed antiretrovirals drug to treat the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), drug resistance has already been found in clinic, such as E92Q/N155H and Q148H/G140S. Several structural investigations have already been reported to reveal the molecular mechanism of the drug resistance. As full length crystal structure for HIV-1 integrase is still unsolved, we use in this paper the crystal structure of the full length prototype foamy virus (PFV) in complex with virus DNA and inhibitor Elvitegravir as a template to construct the wild type and E92Q/N155H mutant system of HIV-1 integrase. Molecular dynamic simulations was used to revel the binding mode and the drug resistance of the EVG ligand in E92Q/N155H. Several important interactions were discovered between the mutated residues and the residues in the active site of the E92Q/N155H double mutant pattern, and cross correlation and clustering methods were used for detailed analysis. The results from the MD simulation studies will be used to guide the experimental efforts of developing novel inhibitors against drug-resistant HIV integrase mutants.

  4. Supply and demand determine the market value of food providers in wild vervet monkeys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fruteau, C.; Voelkl, B.; van Damme, E.E.C.; Noe, R.

    2009-01-01

    Animals neither negotiate verbally nor conclude binding contracts, but nevertheless regularly exchange goods and services without overt coercion and manage to arrive at agreements over exchange rates. Biological market theory predicts that such exchange rates fluctuate according to the law of supply

  5. Particle Swarm Optimization of Electricity Market Negotiating Players Portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Sousa, Tiago

    2014-01-01

    Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors......, the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.) and most important, the renewable based distributed generation forecast. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – MIBEL.......’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which performs realistic simulations of the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system...... for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from each market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the players’ portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method...

  6. Is There Any Overtrading in Stock Markets? The Moderating Role of Big Five Personality Traits and Gender in a Unilateral Trend Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Wang, Haocheng; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shuyi

    2014-01-01

    Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1) Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2) The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3) The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed. PMID:24475235

  7. Is there any overtrading in stock markets? The moderating role of big five personality traits and gender in a unilateral trend stock market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhang

    Full Text Available Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1 Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2 The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3 The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed.

  8. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  9. An assessment of the radiological significance of consuming wild foods collected near the Sellafield nuclear fuel reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fulker, M.J.; McKay, K.; Jackson, D.; Leonard, D.R.P.

    1996-01-01

    Extensive monitoring of conventional agricultural produce in the vicinity of the BNFL Sellafield plant is undertaken, by both the operator and the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, to determine levels of radioactivity and douses arising to the consumer Monitoring is also undertaken, albeit less extensively, for market garden and domestic produce. By contrast, few data exist with respect to levels of radioactivity in 'wild foods' (e.g. hedgerow fruits, field mushrooms etc.) or associated consumption habits. It has been postulated that such foodstuffs could contribute an appreciable radiation exposure dose to groups of high level consumers, potentially including members of the existing identified critical group for local agricultural produce. This paper assess the actual radiological significance of wild foods collected near Sellafield. (author)

  10. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  11. Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M; Sousa, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praca, Isabel; Faia, Ricardo; Pires, Eduardo Jose Solteiro

    2016-08-01

    The increase of distributed energy resources, mainly based on renewable sources, requires new solutions that are able to deal with this type of resources' particular characteristics (namely, the renewable energy sources intermittent nature). The smart grid concept is increasing its consensus as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market, in different contexts. The price forecasts are performed using artificial neural networks, providing a specific database with the expected prices in the different market types, at each time. This database is then used as input by an evolutionary particle swarm optimization process, which originates the most advantage participation portfolio for the market player. The proposed approach is tested and validated with simulations performed in multiagent simulator of competitive electricity markets, using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator-MIBEL.

  12. Wild lettuce (Lactuca virosa) toxicity

    OpenAIRE

    Besharat, Sima; Besharat, Mahsa; Jabbari, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Wild lettuce (Lactuca virosa) can cause toxic effects when eaten. Wild lettuce grows in the north of Iran and some natives consume it unaware of its adverse side effects. We describe eight patients with manifestations of wild lettuce toxicity, admitted to a general hospital affiliated to the Golestan University of Medical Sciences. All the patients recovered (although one had to spend 48 h in the intensive care unit) and no chronic complications were reported. A clinical suspicion of toxicity...

  13. La simulación empresarial como experiencia relacionada con el Marketing. Una propuesta empírica / Business simulation as an experience related to marketing. An empirical proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Liébana-Cabanillas

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available El trabajo analiza la influencia del uso de las TIC y la importancia del trabajo en equipo en las asignaturas de marketing de titulaciones de empresariales. El eje principal de este trabajo se basa en identificar si la utilización de las TIC en grupo favorece el aprendizaje de la disciplina del marketing, así como las habilidades sociales del alumno. Con el objetivo de evaluar la influencia de la utilización del simulador Markops Online en el aprendizaje del alumno, fue aplicado un cuestionario a 784 alumnos de la Universidad de Granada.Los resultados muestran como los alumnos perciben que el uso de dichas herramientas, a pesar de requerir un mayor esfuerzo que las tradicionales prácticas de casos, les genera mayor satisfacción, incrementa su aprendizaje de manera más atractiva y fomenta el desarrollo de sus habilidades sociales.This paper analyzes the influence of the use of ICT and the importance of teamwork for marketing subjects in business studies. The central theme of this paper is to identify whether the use of ICT in groups enhances the learning of the marketing discipline, as well as students’ social skills. At the University of Granada, we conducted a questionnaire to 784 students over three academic years (2006-2009 with the aim of evaluating the influence of using the Markops Online simulator on the student’s learning process. The results show how students perceive that the use of these tools, although requiring greater effort than conventional case studies, provides them greater satisfaction, increases their interest in the learning process and helps developing social skills.

  14. Modeling market power in Korea's emerging power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Nam-sung; Niemeyer, Victor

    2007-01-01

    The Korean power market is being formed from the unbundled generation, transmission and distribution assets of Korea Electric Power Corporation. The KEPCO generation has been allocated to six independent gencos with a combined generating capacity of 46,629 MW in 2002. This gave an 11% margin over the peak load that year (41,921 MW). One of the concerns for any power market is whether individual participants can increase profits (and prices) by withholding generation from the market. To address this concern, a Cournot-based model of Korean power system was created and applied to a set of loads representing the load duration curve for Korea's system loads in 2002. Our simulation results show a strong possibility for exercise of market power to increase market price in Korean market. Under tight market conditions, even 1 GW of withholding can cause a large increase in market price. If loads unexpectedly grow faster than the 5% recent experience, the gencos will have the collective ability and incentive to spike prices further. Vesting contracts can reduce the incentive to act strategically. Requiring that the gencos offer 50% of their capacity in long-term forward contracts greatly reduces the payoff to act strategically, and requiring vesting for 75% of their capacity results in prices that are essentially the same as the competitive equilibrium. Depending on the price for the vesting contracts, this policy can reduce the incentives to add new generation by gencos or the competitive fringe. Another approach to reducing the effects of market power is establishing demand-response programs, simulated here by increasing the elasticity of overall demand. These programs can reduce the incentives to withhold capacity, but to a lesser degree than vesting contracts. The genco with the greatest ability to influence prices through withholding is the largest, KNHP. However, acting on its own, without the support of the other gencos, its ability to raise prices is limited. This

  15. Financial instability from local market measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardoscia, Marco; Livan, Giacomo; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-01-01

    We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random markets using techniques borrowed from statistical mechanics of disordered systems. We show that, depending on the number of financial instruments available and on the heterogeneity of local measures, the market moves from an arbitrage-free phase to an unstable one, where the complexity of the market—as measured by the diversity of financial instruments—increases, and arbitrage opportunities arise. A sharp transition separates the two phases. Focusing on two different classes of local measures inspired by real market strategies, we are able to analytically compute the critical lines, corroborating our findings with numerical simulations. (paper)

  16. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  17. It's a bear market: evolutionary and ecological effects of predation on two wild sockeye salmon populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J E; Hard, J J; Naish, K A; Peterson, D; Hilborn, R; Hauser, L

    2016-05-01

    Predation can affect both phenotypic variation and population productivity in the wild, but quantifying evolutionary and demographic effects of predation in natural environments is challenging. The aim of this study was to estimate selection differentials and coefficients associated with brown bear (Ursus arctos) predation in wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations spawning in pristine habitat that is often subject to intense predation pressure. Using reconstructed genetic pedigrees, individual reproductive success (RS) was estimated in two sockeye salmon populations for two consecutive brood years with very different predation intensities across brood years. Phenotypic data on individual adult body length, body depth, stream entry timing and reproductive lifespan were used to calculate selection coefficients based on RS, and genetic variance components were estimated using animal models. Bears consistently killed larger and more recently arrived adults, although selection differentials were small. In both populations, mean RS was higher in the brood year experiencing lower predation intensity. Selection coefficients were similar across brood years with different levels of predation, often indicating stabilizing selection on reproductive lifespan as well as directional selection for longer reproductive lifespan. Despite these selection pressures, genetic covariation of morphology, phenology and lifespan appears to have maintained variation in spawner body size and stream entry timing in both populations. Our results therefore suggest considerable demographic but limited evolutionary effects of bear predation in the two study populations.

  18. Ising model of financial markets with many assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckrot, A.; Jurczyk, J.; Morgenstern, I.

    2016-11-01

    Many models of financial markets exist, but most of them simulate single asset markets. We study a multi asset Ising model of a financial market. Each agent has two possible actions (buy/sell) for every asset. The agents dynamically adjust their coupling coefficients according to past market returns and external news. This leads to fat tails and volatility clustering independent of the number of assets. We find that a separation of news into different channels leads to sector structures in the cross correlations, similar to those found in real markets.

  19. Integrative smart market concept for system integration of decentralized generators and as a trading platform for grid operators; Integratives Smart Market Konzept zur Systemintegration dezentraler Erzeuger und als Handelsplattform fuer Netzbetreiber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmedes, Tanja [EWE AG, Oldenburg (Germany); Stadler, Michael [BTC AG, Oldenburg (Germany); Klose, Thomas [energy and meteo systems GmbH, Oldenburg (Germany); Hollinger, Raphael [Fraunhofer ISE, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Ruettinger, Hannes [Fraunhofer AST, Ilmenau (Germany); Koch, Matthias [Oeko-Institut e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Rosinger, Christine [OFFIS - Institut fuer Informatik, Oldenburg (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The E-Energy-Project eTelligence built and evaluated an energy market with low admission barriers. This market allowed different actors from the smart grid domain to trade electricity products. During a one year field trial the market was operated with real financial transactions between market participants taking place. To this end, it was necessary to completely integrate the market into energy trading processes currently in place. In addition to the field trial, simulations were carried out in order to demonstrate participation of a distribution system operator and to evaluate intraday-transactions with a high number of simulated market participants. This paper describes the market and gives information about the results attained during its operation. (orig.)

  20. A comparison between intraday market and capacity market to deal with wind power forecasting errors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, W.W. de; Dekker, G.W.; Frunt, J.; Duvoort, M.R. [DNV-KEMA, Arnhem (Netherlands); Jokic, A. [Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2012-07-01

    Future power systems with large amounts of renewable generation require more regulating power to guarantee reliability. The ancillary service market proposed in this paper guarantees both a contracted amount of regulating power in advance and an effective activation of those resources by means of the secondary controller of the TSO. Simulation results show that a certain reliability level can be maintained, depending on incentives the TSO uses to reduce remaining imbalances. This market design shows to be preferable in some aspects compared to an intraday market, which is suboptimal in balancing and a relative large remaining imbalance occurs. (orig.)

  1. Study on the Market Risk Measurement of the Style Portfolios in Stock Markets Based on EVT-t-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhong Zhou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For the presence of non-normal distribution characteristics in the financial assets returns, the model of AR(1-GJR(1,1 is used to characterize the marginal distribution of the style assets in China stock market. The Copula function is introduced to analyze the dependency structure between the six style assets, combined with the marginal distributed residual sequences. And the joint return distribution of the style portfolios is simulated, combined with extreme value theory and Monte Carlo simulation method. Then the market risks (VaR and CVaR of the style portfolios in China stock markets are obtained. The results of the study show that the generalized Pareto distribution Model can well fit the non-normal distribution characteristics such as peak and fat tail in the style assets returns.

  2. Instructional Simulation of a Commercial Banking System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, Donald D.

    1991-01-01

    Describes an instructional simulation of a commercial banking system. Identifies the teaching of portfolio theory, market robustness, and the subtleties of institutional constraints and decision making under uncertainty as the project's goals. Discusses the results of applying the simulation in an environment of local and national markets and a…

  3. POWERS. Simulation of pricing and investment decisions in a liberalized Dutch electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rijkers, F.A.M.; Battjes, J.J.; Janszen, F.H.A.; Kaag, M.

    2001-02-01

    With the liberalisation of the Dutch electricity market the electricity price will be divided into a network component and a commodity component. Further, liberalisation will change the determination of the commodity price. Before liberalisation the commodity price was centrally determined by the Sep (Samenwerkende Electriciteitsproductiebedrijven or Dutch Electricity Generating Board), but with the introduction of liberalisation prices will be determined by the market itself. To analyse the liberalised market a new model (POWERS) has been developed in which the new structure of the electricity market is incorporated and the increasing competition between energy companies is taken into account. An overview of the POWERS-model is presented in this report. The model is based on the system dynamics. This means that the decisions (regarding production volume, allocation of the plants, price setting) made by each market player is based on information from the previous period. Optimisation models that are based on the assumption of 'perfect foresight' do not apply to the electricity market. Currently, the model contains a detailed description of the production capacity of the current market players in the Netherlands. Among other purposes the model is suitable for determining an outlook of forward prices on the Dutch electricity market and for analysing the impacts of alternative strategies of the different market players on their profits. 4 refs

  4. Reputations in Markets with Asymmetric Information: A Classroom Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, James R.; Myerscough, Mark A.

    2007-01-01

    The authors describe a classroom game used to teach students about the impact of reputations in markets with asymmetric information. The game is an extension of Holt and Sherman's lemons market game and simulates a market under three information conditions. In the full information setting, all participants know both the quality and the price of…

  5. Impact of Germany's energy transition on the Nordic power market – A market-based multi-region energy system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zakeri, Behnam; Virasjoki, Vilma; Syri, Sanna; Connolly, David; Mathiesen, Brian V.; Welsch, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    The EU energy policy aims at creating a single European electricity market through market couplings and grid expansions. To analyse the implications of such power market couplings, we propose a market-based multi-region energy system model. The model simulates a multi-region power market (by applying market optimization and network theory), with detailed representation of each region as an energy system (by simulation of both heat and power sectors). We examine the impact of further integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Germany on the Nordic power market. The results indicate that the average electricity price slightly grows in the Nordic power market after Germany's Energy Transition (Energiewende). Hence, the economic surplus of Nordic consumers diminishes while Nordic producers improve their gain under new market conditions. Considering the gird congestion income, the overall system-level benefits (social welfare) will improve in the Nordic region after Germany's Energiewende. However, this gain is not equally distributed among different Nordic countries and across different stakeholders. Furthermore, the Energiewende slightly increases carbon emissions from power and district heating (DH) sectors, and reduces the flexibility in integration of VRE in some Nordic countries like Denmark. The direct interconnection of Norway and Germany through NordLink will contribute to the flexibility in wind integration in other Nordic countries, such as Denmark and Finland. - Highlights: • By an integrated hourly analysis, we model the energy systems of several networked countries and their common electricity market. • The proposed model can inform energy policy on implications of renewable energy integration in an international power market. • Among Nordic countries, Norway gains the highest economic benefits from Germany's energy transition. • Germany's energy transition constrains the flexibility of the Nordic countries in wind integration. • Nord

  6. Dietary fiber, organic acids and minerals in selected wild edible fruits of Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magaia, Telma; Uamusse, Amália; Sjöholm, Ingegerd; Skog, Kerstin

    2013-12-01

    The harvesting, utilization and marketing of indigenous fruits and nuts have been central to the livelihoods of the majority of rural communities in African countries. In this study we report on the content of dietary fiber, minerals and selected organic acids in the pulps and kernels of the wild fruits most commonly consumed in southern Mozambique. The content of soluble fiber in the pulps ranged from 4.3 to 65.6 g/100 g and insoluble fiber from 2.6 to 45.8 g/100 g. In the kernels the content of soluble fiber ranged from 8.4 to 42.6 g/100 g and insoluble fiber from 14.7 to 20.9 g/100 g. Citric acid was found in all fruits up to 25.7 g/kg. The kernels of Adansonia digitata and Sclerocarya birrea were shown to be rich in calcium, iron, magnesium and zinc. The data may be useful in selecting wild fruit species appropriate for incorporation into diets.

  7. Maximising profitability through the use of simulation for new market crudes evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendez, Maryro P. [KBC Advanced Technologies, Surrey (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    There is nothing that contributes more to the cost of production for a refinery than the cost of crude oil and other feedstocks. The efficient and effective evaluation and selection of crude oil to a refinery will have a very significant impact on its profitability. The crude oil selected will impact the utilization and output from different process units, has the potential to impact maintenance and energy costs, and will impact product properties from the refinery. The tools and knowledge necessary for a good new crude evaluation program are addressed as part of this paper. The work process is outlined in detail. Finally, we address some of the risk management issues inherent in processing high margin crudes. Innovative simulation tools like Petro-SIM offer the platform to evaluate opportunities to capture the value that the sour/sweet crude differential and that the new crudes coming in to the market have to offer for a given refinery configuration. The paper provides comments on how KBC's methodology has helped refiners to check their ability to run new challenging crudes. (author)

  8. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  9. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  10. Teaching Marketing Strategy: Using Resource-Advantage Theory as an Integrative Theoretical Foundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Shelby D.; Madhavaram, Sreedhar

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of marketing strategy is essential for marketing majors. To supplement and/or replace the traditional lecture-discussion approach, several pedagogical vehicles have been recommended to teach marketing strategy, including the analytic hierarchy process; career-planning cases; computer-assisted, simulated marketing cases; experiential…

  11. Integration of REDD into the international carbon market: Implications for future commitments and market regulation

    OpenAIRE

    Dixon, Alistair; Anger, Niels; Holden, Rachel; Livengood, Erich

    2008-01-01

    Integrating reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) into a post-Kyoto intergovernmental carbon market could significantly decrease global carbon prices and the costs of mitigating climate change. We investigate this impact by simulating the impact of the supply of REDD units on the international carbon market in 2020 under unlimited and restricted exchange conditions. We find restricting supply or demand of REDD credits reduces such price impacts, but comes at the cost of ...

  12. The structure of a market containing boundedly rational firms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Adyda; Zura, Nerda; Saaban, Azizan

    2017-11-01

    The structure of a market is determined by the number of active firms in it. Over time, this number is affected by the exit of existing firms, called incumbents, and entries of new firms, called entrant. In this paper, we considered a market governed by the Cobb-Douglas utility function such that the demand function is isoelastic. Each firm is assumed to produce a single homogenous product under a constant unit cost. Furthermore, firms are assumed to be boundedly rational in adjusting their outputs at each period. A firm is considered to exit the market if its output is negative. In this paper, the market is assumed to have zero barrier-to-entry. Therefore, the exiting firm can reenter the market if its output is positive again, and new firms can enter the market easily. Based on these assumptions and rules, a mathematical model was developed and numerical simulations were run using Matlab. By setting certain values for the parameters in the model, initial numerical simulations showed that in the long run, the number of firms that manages to survive the market varies between zero to 30. This initial result is consistent with the idea that a zero barrier-to-entry may produce a perfectly competitive market.

  13. Dispersion of fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) at high and low densities and consequences of mismatching dispersions of wild and sterile flies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meats, A.

    2007-01-01

    Both wild and released (sterile) Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and wild Bactrocera papayae (Drew and Hancock) in Australia had patchy distributions and comparisons with predictions of the negative binomial model indicated that the degree of clumping was sometimes very high, particularly at low densities during eradication. An increase of mean recapture rate of sterile B. tryoni on either of 2 trap arrays was not accompanied by a reduction in its coefficient of variation and when recapture rates were high, the percentage of traps catching zero decreased only slightly with increase in recapture rate, indicating that it is not practicable to decrease the heterogeneity of dispersion of sterile flies by increasing the number released. There was often a mismatch between the dispersion patterns of the wild and sterile flies, and the implications of this for the efficiency of the sterile insect technique (SIT) were investigated with a simulation study with the observed degrees of mismatch obtained from the monitoring data and assuming the overall ratio of sterile to wild flies to be 100:1. The simulation indicated that mismatches could result in the imposed rate of increase of wild flies being up to 3.5 times higher than that intended (i.e., 0.35 instead of 0.1). The effect of a mismatch always reduces the efficiency of SIT. The reason for this asymmetry is discussed and a comparison made with host-parasitoid and other systems. A release strategy to counter this effect is suggested. (author) [es

  14. Anti-cancer and anti-oxidant efficacies of wild ginseng and cultivated wild ginseng of Korea and China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Min,Ahn

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives : The aim of this study was to verify anti-cancer and anti-oxidant efficacies of Korean wild ginseng and cultivated wild ginseng of Korea and China. Methods : For the measurement of anti-oxidation, SOD-like activity was evaluated using xanthine oxidase reduction method under in vitro environment. Subcutaneous and abdominal cancer were induced using CT-26 human colon cancer cells for the measurement of growth inhibition of cancer cells and differences in survival rate. Results : 1. Measurement of anti-oxidant activity of ginseng, Chinese and Korean cultivated wild ginseng, and natural wild ginseng samples showed concentration dependent anti-oxidant activity in HX/XOD system. Anti-oxidant activity showed drastic increase at 1mg/ml in all samples. 2. For the evaluation of growth inhibition of cancer cells after hypodermic implantation of CT-26 cancer cells in the peritoneal cavity of mice, Chinese and Korean cultivated wild ginseng and natural wild ginseng groups showed significant inhibition of tumor growth from the 12th day compared to the control group. Similar inhibitory effects were also shown on the 15th and 18th days. But there was no significant difference between the experiment groups. 3. For the observation of increase in survival rate of the natural wild ginseng group, CT-26 cancer cells were implanted in the peritoneal cavity of mice.

  15. Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hui

    This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have

  16. Time delay and profit accumulation effect on a mine-based uranium market clearing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auzans, Aris; Teder, Allan; Tkaczyk, Alan H.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Improved version of a mine-based uranium market clearing model for the front-end uranium market and enrichment industries is proposed. • A profit accumulation algorithm and time delay function provides more realistic uranium mine decision making process. • Operational decision delay increased uranium market price volatility. - Abstract: The mining industry faces a number of challenges such as market volatility, investment safety, issues surrounding employment and productivity. Therefore, computer simulations are highly relevant in order to reduce financial risks associated with these challenges. In the mining industry, each firm must compete with other mines and the basic target is profit maximization. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the world uranium (U) supply by simulating financial management challenges faced by an individual U mine that are caused by a variety of regulation issues. In this paper front-end nuclear fuel cycle tool is used to simulate market conditions and the effects they have on the stability of U supply. An individual U mine’s exit or entry in the market might cause changes in the U supply side which can increase or decrease the market price. In this paper we offer a more advanced version of a mine-based U market clearing model. The existing U market model incorporates the market of primary U from uranium mines with secondary uranium (depleted uranium DU), enriched uranium (HEU) and enrichment services. In the model each uranium mine acts as an independent agent that is able to make operational decisions based on the market price. This paper introduces a more realistic decision making algorithm of individual U mine that adds constraints to production decisions. The authors added an accumulated profit model, which allows for the profits accumulated to cover any possible future economic losses and the time-delay algorithm to simulate delayed process of reopening a U mine. The U market simulation covers time period 2010

  17. Time delay and profit accumulation effect on a mine-based uranium market clearing model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auzans, Aris [Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Ostwaldi 1, EE-50411 Tartu (Estonia); Teder, Allan [School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu, Narva mnt 4, EE-51009 Tartu (Estonia); Tkaczyk, Alan H., E-mail: alan@ut.ee [Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Ostwaldi 1, EE-50411 Tartu (Estonia)

    2016-12-15

    Highlights: • Improved version of a mine-based uranium market clearing model for the front-end uranium market and enrichment industries is proposed. • A profit accumulation algorithm and time delay function provides more realistic uranium mine decision making process. • Operational decision delay increased uranium market price volatility. - Abstract: The mining industry faces a number of challenges such as market volatility, investment safety, issues surrounding employment and productivity. Therefore, computer simulations are highly relevant in order to reduce financial risks associated with these challenges. In the mining industry, each firm must compete with other mines and the basic target is profit maximization. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the world uranium (U) supply by simulating financial management challenges faced by an individual U mine that are caused by a variety of regulation issues. In this paper front-end nuclear fuel cycle tool is used to simulate market conditions and the effects they have on the stability of U supply. An individual U mine’s exit or entry in the market might cause changes in the U supply side which can increase or decrease the market price. In this paper we offer a more advanced version of a mine-based U market clearing model. The existing U market model incorporates the market of primary U from uranium mines with secondary uranium (depleted uranium DU), enriched uranium (HEU) and enrichment services. In the model each uranium mine acts as an independent agent that is able to make operational decisions based on the market price. This paper introduces a more realistic decision making algorithm of individual U mine that adds constraints to production decisions. The authors added an accumulated profit model, which allows for the profits accumulated to cover any possible future economic losses and the time-delay algorithm to simulate delayed process of reopening a U mine. The U market simulation covers time period 2010

  18. Complex Ancestries of Lager-Brewing Hybrids Were Shaped by Standing Variation in the Wild Yeast Saccharomyces eubayanus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peris, David; Langdon, Quinn K; Moriarty, Ryan V; Sylvester, Kayla; Bontrager, Martin; Charron, Guillaume; Leducq, Jean-Baptiste; Landry, Christian R; Libkind, Diego; Hittinger, Chris Todd

    2016-07-01

    Lager-style beers constitute the vast majority of the beer market, and yet, the genetic origin of the yeast strains that brew them has been shrouded in mystery and controversy. Unlike ale-style beers, which are generally brewed with Saccharomyces cerevisiae, lagers are brewed at colder temperatures with allopolyploid hybrids of Saccharomyces eubayanus x S. cerevisiae. Since the discovery of S. eubayanus in 2011, additional strains have been isolated from South America, North America, Australasia, and Asia, but only interspecies hybrids have been isolated in Europe. Here, using genome sequence data, we examine the relationships of these wild S. eubayanus strains to each other and to domesticated lager strains. Our results support the existence of a relatively low-diversity (π = 0.00197) lineage of S. eubayanus whose distribution stretches across the Holarctic ecozone and includes wild isolates from Tibet, new wild isolates from North America, and the S. eubayanus parents of lager yeasts. This Holarctic lineage is closely related to a population with higher diversity (π = 0.00275) that has been found primarily in South America but includes some widely distributed isolates. A second diverse South American population (π = 0.00354) and two early-diverging Asian subspecies are more distantly related. We further show that no single wild strain from the Holarctic lineage is the sole closest relative of lager yeasts. Instead, different parts of the genome portray different phylogenetic signals and ancestry, likely due to outcrossing and incomplete lineage sorting. Indeed, standing genetic variation within this wild Holarctic lineage of S. eubayanus is responsible for genetic variation still segregating among modern lager-brewing hybrids. We conclude that the relationships among wild strains of S. eubayanus and their domesticated hybrids reflect complex biogeographical and genetic processes.

  19. Risk management in a competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

    2007-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, it is necessary and important to develop an appropriate risk management scheme for trade with full utilization of the multi-market environment in order to maximize participants' benefits and minimize the corresponding risks. Based on the analyses to trading environments and risks in the electricity market, a layered framework of risk management for electric energy trading is proposed in this paper. Simulation results confirmed that trading among multiple markets is helpful to reduce the complete risk, and VaR provides a useful approach to judge whether the formed risk-control scheme is acceptable. (author)

  20. Outflow dynamics in modeling oligopoly markets: the case of the mobile telecommunications market in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał; Włoszczowska, Maja

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumer choice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level p \\in (0.3,0.4) . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment.

  1. The economic analysis of power market architectures: application to real-time market design; L' analyse economique des architectures de marche electrique: application au market design du temps reel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saguan, M

    2007-04-15

    This work contributes to the economic analysis of power market architectures. A modular framework is used to separate problems of market design in different modules. The work's goal is to study real-time market design. A two-stage market equilibrium model is used to analyse the two main real-time designs: the 'market' and the 'mechanism' (with penalty). Numerical simulations show that design applied in real-time is not neutral vis-a-vis of energy markets sequence and the competition dynamic. Designs using penalty (mechanisms) cause distortions, inefficiencies and can create barriers to entry. The size of distortions is given by the temporal position of the gate that closure the forward markets. This model has also allowed us to show the key role of real-time integration between zones and the importance of good harmonization between real-time designs of each zone. (author)

  2. From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

    2007-01-01

    Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

  3. From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

  4. A Simulation Based Approach to Professional Development in Integrated Energy Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elliot Tonkes

    2016-06-01

    The workshop succeeded in conveying the complex ways in which electricity, environmental and gas markets interact in Australia. An important observation from the training program was the way in which participants used the provided spreadsheet models to ‘reverse-engineer’ how the market operates, rather than simply using the software as a device for decision support.

  5. Effects of gamma irradiation on the chemical composition and antioxidant activity of Lactarius deliciosus L. wild edible mushroom

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandes, Ângela; Antonio, Amilcar L.; Barreira, João C.M.; Botelho, M. Luísa; Oliveira, M.B.P.P.; Martins, Anabela; Ferreira, Isabel C.F.R.

    2013-01-01

    TThe short shelf-life of mushrooms is an obstacle to the distribution and marketing of the fresh product. There has been extensive research on finding the most appropriate technology for mushrooms preservation and a particular interest arises for wild species. Treatment by irradiation emerges as a possible conservation technique that has been tested successfully in several food products. Herein, the effects of gamma irradiation on Lactarius deliciosus (L. ex Fr.) S. F....

  6. Wild leafy vegetables: A study of their subsistence dietetic support to the inhabitants of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rao KS

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Consumption of greens is a major source of vitamins and micro-nutrients for people using only vegetarian diets rich in carbohydrates. In remote rural settlements where vegetable cultivation is not practiced and market supplies are not organized, local inhabitants depend on indigenous vegetables, both cultivated in kitchen gardens and wild, for enriching the diversity of food. Knowledge of such foods is part of traditional knowledge which is largely transmitted through participation of individuals of households. A total of 123 households in six villages of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve buffer zone was surveyed using a schedule to assess the knowledge, availability and consumption pattern of wild leafy vegetables. Quantity estimations were done using regular visits with informants from 30 sample households of the six study villages during the collections. Monetization was used to see the value of wild leafy vegetables harvested during a year. The diversity of wild leafy vegetables being use by the local inhabitants is 21 species belonging to 14 genera and 11 families. This is far less than that being reported to be used by the communities from Western Ghats in India and some parts of Africa. Irrespective of social or economic status all households in the study villages had the knowledge and used wild leafy vegetables. The number of households reported to consume these wild leafy vegetables is greater than the number of households reporting to harvest them for all species except for Diplazium esculentum and Phytolacca acinosa. The availability and use period varied for the species are listed by the users. The study indicated that the knowledge is eroding due to changing social values and non participation of younger generation in collection and processing of such wild leafy vegetables.

  7. Wild food plants of Remote Oceania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Will C. McClatchey

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural societies partly depend upon wild foods. Relationships between an agricultural society and its wild foods can be explored by examining how the society responds through colonization of new lands that have not been previously inhabited. The oldest clear example of this phenomenon took place about 5000 years ago in the tropical Western Pacific at the “boundary” interface between Near and Remote Oceania. An inventory of wild and domesticated food plants used by people living along “the remote side of ” that interface has been prepared from the literature. This was then assessed for the roles of plants at the time of original colonization of Remote Oceania. The majority of species are wild foods, and most of these are used as leafy vegetables and fruits. The wild food plants mostly serve as supplements to domesticated species, although there are a few that can be used as substitutes for traditional staples.

  8. Oscar Wilde and the brain cell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Elisha

    2013-01-01

    This chapter considers Oscar Wilde's interest in the brain cell as an aesthetic object. Offering an account of Wilde's career that analyzes his early interest in physiology and philosophy, this chapter argues that Wilde's uniquely aesthetic take on the brain suggests that he rejects an account of the self as autonomous or self-determining. For many late Victorians brain science threatened both the freedom of human action and the legitimacy of beauty because it had the potential to invalidate conscious experience. But writers whose work Wilde knew, like John Ruskin, W. K. Clifford, and John Tyndall, avoided the despair of materialism by using aesthetic terms in their own discussions of life's invisible materials. Wilde's art collaborates with the contemporary sciences. His depictions of the cell direct the senses to a new field of being that emphasizes the molecular life all humans have in common, in which individual responsibility and activity matter less than the necessity of beauty. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Wild reindeer Rangifer tarandus (L. in Chukotka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix B. Chernyavskii

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed historical records of the abundance and distribution of wild reindeer {Rangifer tarandus L. in Chukotka and studied reindeer numbers, distribution and behavior from 1983 to 1993. There were large numbers of wild reindeer in Chukotka until the end of the eighteenth century, but during the nineteenth century the population declined probably from intensive harvest after the introduction of firearms by the Cossacks. During the nineteenth century herding of domestic reindeer also increased, and reindeer herders continued to hunt wild reindeer intensively. During the 1950s there were only about 8500 wild reindeer in two separate herds in Chukotka. By the late 1970s the wild reindeer population had increased to about 11 000. Ten years later we estimated 16 534 reindeer, and found only one contiguous population. Presently, the population calves and spends the summer in the Anadyr Uplands and migrates west and southwest to spend the winter in forest tundra and northern taiga regions. Predators, primarily wolves and brown bears, kill a significant number of calves. Today, the wild reindeer in Chukotka coexist with 300 000 domestic reindeer. However, current costs of gasoline and helicopters make it prohibitive to herd reindeer in much of central Chukotka, so that wild reindeer have room for expansion. Poaching is a major conservation problem. Poachers shoot wild reindeer from helicopters to obtain velvet antlers. Leaders of domestic reindeer cooperatives encourage poaching by telling people that wild reindeer are in fact just stray domestic reindeer and there is no enforcement of game laws.

  10. Energy market and reserve market modeling in simultaneous and serial implementation methods with the aim of reducing electricity costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramin Ghoraba

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In competitive electricity markets, power needed for the network’s reserve is purchased from the ancillary service market. In this market, producing units and buyers alike announce their offers. As will be seen, energy market and reserve market implementation is possible with simultaneous method and serial method by choosing each of the methods based on the type of market and other conditions. In this paper, the energy market and the active power reserve market are simulated in two formations as serial and simultaneous for a uniform pricing system. In each method, limitations of transferring power over the lines, based on available transfer capacity (ATC, is considered alongside the other constraints in the energy market and the active power reserve market. Then, during network overload, economic dispatch is accomplished between winner units in the reserve market by using a linear optimization problem, and needed power is provided from these units at a minimal cost. Finally, our proposed methods are implemented on an IEEE 39-bus test system and results are analyzed.

  11. Explaining the resurgent popularity of the wild: motivations for wild plant gathering in the Biosphere Reserve Grosses Walsertal, Austria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schunko, Christoph; Grasser, Susanne; Vogl, Christian R

    2015-06-30

    Wild plant gathering becomes again a popular and fashionable activity in Europe after gathering practices have been increasingly abandoned over the last decades. Recent ethnobotanical research documented a diversity of gathering practices from people of diverse socio-economic and cultural backgrounds who gather in urban and rural areas. Few efforts were though made to study the motivations for gathering wild plants and to understand the resurgent popularity of wild plant gathering. This paper addresses the following research questions: (1) which motivations activate wild plant gatherers? (2) which motivation-types of gatherers exist in the Grosses Walsertal? (3) how do the motivations for gathering relate to the socio-demographic background of gatherers? Field research was conducted in the Grosses Walsertal, Austria in the years 2008 and 2009 in two field research periods. Thirty-six local farmers were first interviewed with semi-structured interviews. The motivations identified in these interviews were then included in a structured questionnaire, which was used to interview 353 residents of the valley. Pupils of local schools participated in the data collection as interviewers. Principal Component Analysis was used to categorize the motivations and to identify motivation-types of wild plant gatherers. Generalized Linear Models were calculated to identify relations between motivations and the socio-demographic background of gatherers. The respondents listed 13 different motivations for gathering wild plants and four motivations for not gathering. These 17 motivations were grouped in five motivation-types of wild plant gatherers, which are in decreasing importance: product quality, fun, tradition, not-gathering, income. Women, older respondents and homegardeners gather wild plants more often for fun; older respondents gather more often for maintaining traditions; non-homegardeners more frequently mention motivations for not gathering. The resurgent popularity of

  12. Effects of Participation in a Simulation Game on Marketing Students' Numeracy and Financial Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Ross; Vos, Lynn

    2013-01-01

    The need to endow marketing graduates with skills relevant to employability grows ever more important. Marketing math and elementary financial understanding are essential employability skills, particularly given the contemporary emphasis on marketing metrics, but the evidence is that marketing graduates are often relatively weak in such skills.…

  13. Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Clark L; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E

    2015-02-01

    Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.

  14. The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

    1996-01-01

    The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

  15. DNA vaccines encoding proteins from wild-type and attenuated canine distemper virus protect equally well against wild-type virus challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Line; Jensen, Trine Hammer; Kristensen, Birte; Jensen, Tove Dannemann; Karlskov-Mortensen, Peter; Lund, Morten; Aasted, Bent; Blixenkrone-Møller, Merete

    2012-10-01

    Immunity induced by DNA vaccines containing the hemagglutinin (H) and nucleoprotein (N) genes of wild-type and attenuated canine distemper virus (CDV) was investigated in mink (Mustela vison), a highly susceptible natural host of CDV. All DNA-immunized mink seroconverted, and significant levels of virus-neutralizing (VN) antibodies were present on the day of challenge with wild-type CDV. The DNA vaccines also primed the cell-mediated memory responses, as indicated by an early increase in the number of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ)-producing lymphocytes after challenge. Importantly, the wild-type and attenuated CDV DNA vaccines had a long-term protective effect against wild-type CDV challenge. The vaccine-induced immunity induced by the H and N genes from wild-type CDV and those from attenuated CDV was comparable. Because these two DNA vaccines were shown to protect equally well against wild-type virus challenge, it is suggested that the genetic/antigenic heterogeneity between vaccine strains and contemporary wild-type strains are unlikely to cause vaccine failure.

  16. A comparison of the wild food plant use knowledge of ethnic minorities in Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve, Yunnan, SW China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghorbani Abdolbaset

    2012-05-01

    on the preference and use of wild food plants. There is a big potential for harvesting, participatory domestication and marketing of WFPs especially in the tourism sector in the area.

  17. A comparison of the wild food plant use knowledge of ethnic minorities in Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve, Yunnan, SW China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, Abdolbaset; Langenberger, Gerhard; Sauerborn, Joachim

    2012-05-05

    Wild food plants (WFPs) contribute to the nutrition, economy and even cultural identity of people in many parts of the world. Different factors determine the preference and use of WFPs such as abundance, availability, cultural preference, economic conditions, shortage periods or unsecure food production systems. Understanding these factors and knowing the patterns of selection, use and cultural significance and value of wild food plants for local communities is helpful in setting priorities for conservation and/or domestication of these plants. Thus in this study knowledge of wild food plant use among four groups namely Dai, Lahu, Hani and Mountain Han in Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve ((NRWNNR), Xishuangbanna were documented and analyzed to find the similarity and difference among their plant use. Data on wild food plant use was collected through freelisting and semi-structured interviews and participatory field collection and direct observation. Botanical plant sample specimens were collected, prepared, dried and identified. A total of 173 species and subspecies from 64 families and one species of lichen (Ramalina sp.) are used as WFP. There were differences on the saliency of wild food plant species among four ethnic groups. Consensus analysis revealed that knowledge of wild food plant use for each ethnic group differs from others with some variation in each group. Among informant attributes only age was related with the knowledge of wild food plant use, whereas no significant relationship was found between gender and age*gender and informants knowledge of wild food plant use. Wild food plants are still used extensively by local people in the NRWNNR, some of them on a daily base. This diversity of wild food plants provide important source of nutrients for the local communities which much of their caloric intake comes from one or few crops. The results also show the role of ethnicity on the preference and use of wild food plants. There is a big

  18. SIMULATION OF THE INSURANCE COMPANY’S MARKETING STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. Klepikova

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted the development of marketing strategy of the insurance company with using of mathematical modeling of structures. The algorithm was developed for calculating the coefficient of “probability of insurance policy acquisition” which accumulates the influence of factors related to the feature of providing insurance services and financial activities of the insurance company.

  19. How to benefit from a common European electricity market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringler, Philipp; Keles, Dogan; Fichtner, Wolf

    2017-01-01

    The realization of an Internal Electricity Market in Europe is currently, on the one hand, progressing, in particular thanks to the wide-spread implementation of market coupling solutions for cross-border congestion management. On the other hand, diverging national market designs pose a threat to the continuation of this process. Given the challenges to electricity market design in a multi-regional context, we analyze how different design aspects, namely cross-border congestion management and capacity mechanisms, affect welfare and generation adequacy in Europe. In doing so, we rely on an agent-based simulation model for electricity wholesale markets which we apply within several numerical, computational case studies for the region of Central Western Europe (2012–2030). Our results confirm the benefits of market coupling in terms of welfare as well as generation adequacy. Furthermore, we find indications that coordinating market designs across regions supports these targets. Therefore, we recommend that European energy policy forms a stable, transparent regulatory framework with cross-border market coupling as an integral component. In this context, energy policy targets should be clearly defined and operationalized, which also needs to consider potential conflicts between them. Finally, electricity market designs need to be coordinated among states to benefit most from a common European market. - Highlights: • European electricity markets at crossroads given diverging market designs • Simulation of CWE Market Coupling using an agent-based model. • Welfare and adequacy gains from European market coupling and new interconnections. • Conflicts between energy policy targets to be considered in market design. • Coordination key to further strengthen integration of electricity markets in Europe.

  20. Comparative Study between Two Market Clearing Schemes in Wind Dominant Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe

    2015-01-01

    High price volatility and excessive price reduction are introduced as two emerging problems in wind dominant electricity markets. In this study, an agent-based simulation methodology is employed to investigate the impact of two pricing mechanisms, uniform and pay-as-bid, on the mentioned problems....... According to the proposed agent-based approach, electricity market agents (here generation units) learn from their previous bidding experience to obtain maximum financial. A comparative study is then conducted to investigate the impact of mentioned pricing schemes on price volatility and average price level....... It is shown that these two pricing mechanisms cause different bidding behaviours for the generation units. This study suggests that this change in market agent behaviour, modifies the overall price volatility and system average price. The results indicate that a pay-as-bid pricing mechanism can alleviate...

  1. Strategic marketing applications of conjoint analysis: an HMO perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosko, M D; DeVita, M; McKenna, W F; Walker, L R

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how data from a conjoint analysis study can be used to help determine the most appropriate marketing mix for an operational HMO which is entering a new market--the geriatric population. Included are two features which are absent in previous articles on health care applications of conjoint analysis: external validation of results, and a demonstration of how conjoint analysis can be used to simulate market responses to changes in the provider's marketing mix.

  2. Extending market activities for a distribution company in hourly-ahead energy and reserve markets-Part II: Numerical results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashhour, M.; Golkar, M.A.; Moghaddas-Tafreshi, S.M.

    2011-01-01

    The present work is to show the application and implementation of the algorithms and models proposed in part I. It also represents the simulation results of (a) extracting a lumped financial model (the aggregated model) of the distribution system with distributed generations (DGs) and interruptible loads (ILs), (b) distribution company's (DISCO's) process of decision-making, based on the created financial model, on allocating its generating capability for internal usage and proposing to the hourly-ahead energy and reserve markets, and (c) a profit-based network reconfiguration methodology that increases the DISCO's technical ability and directs its financial affairs towards more profitable transactions in the upcoming markets. The function of the algorithms used for detecting unfeasible configurations, namely loop path and/or isolated part in the network are shown and well exemplified. Influential factors in DISCO's generating capability and in the coefficients of DISCO's internal cost function (ICF) are investigated. The present study substantiates the ICF-based optimization method by comparing the relevant results with the results obtained based on the use of total cost function (TCF). Several scenarios on market prices of energy and reserve and on the contingency probability factor pertaining to the real-time generation in reserve market are considered. Simulation results indicate that getting more economical benefits, DISCO may necessarily play different roles in the market and change the network configuration, at different hours.

  3. Production and evaluation of YY-male Brook Trout to eradicate nonnative wild brook trout populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Patrick; Schill, Daniel J.; Meyer, Kevin A.; Campbell, Matthew R.; Vu, Ninh V.; Hansen, Michael J.

    2017-01-01

    Nonnative Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis were introduced throughout western North America in the early 1900s, resulting in widespread self-sustaining populations that are difficult to eradicate and often threaten native salmonid populations. A novel approach for their eradication involves use of YY male (MYY) Brook Trout (created in the hatchery by feminizing XY males and crossing them with normal XY males). If MYY Brook Trout survive after stocking, and reproduce successfully with wild females, in theory this could eventually drive the sex ratio of the wild population to 100% males, at which point the population would not be able to reproduce and would be eradicated. This study represents the first successful development of a FYY and MYY salmonid broodstock, which was produced in four years at relatively low cost. Field trials demonstrated that stocked hatchery MYY Brook Trout survived and produced viable MYY offspring in streams, although reproductive fitness appeared to have been lower than their wild conspecifics. Even if reduced fitness is the norm in both streams and alpine lakes, our population simulations suggest that eradication can be achieved in reasonable time periods under some MYY stocking scenarios, especially when wild Brook Trout are simultaneously suppressed in the population.

  4. Wealth dynamics in a sentiment-driven market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goykhman, Mikhail

    2017-12-01

    We study dynamics of a simulated world with stock and money, driven by the externally given processes which we refer to as sentiments. The considered sentiments influence the buy/sell stock trading attitude, the perceived price uncertainty, and the trading intensity of all or a part of the market participants. We study how the wealth of market participants evolves in time in such an environment. We discuss the opposite perspective in which the parameters of the sentiment processes can be inferred a posteriori from the observed market behavior.

  5. Simulating Price-Taking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  6. Differential iridoid production as revealed by a diversity panel of 84 cultivated and wild blueberry species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney P Leisner

    Full Text Available Cultivated blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum, Vaccinium angustifolium, Vaccinium darrowii, and Vaccinium virgatum is an economically important fruit crop native to North America and a member of the Ericaceae family. Several species in the Ericaceae family including cranberry, lignonberry, bilberry, and neotropical blueberry species have been shown to produce iridoids, a class of pharmacologically important compounds present in over 15 plant families demonstrated to have a wide range of biological activities in humans including anti-cancer, anti-bacterial, and anti-inflammatory. While the antioxidant capacity of cultivated blueberry has been well studied, surveys of iridoid production in blueberry have been restricted to fruit of a very limited number of accessions of V. corymbosum, V. angustifolium and V. virgatum; none of these analyses have detected iridoids. To provide a broader survey of iridoid biosynthesis in cultivated blueberry, we constructed a panel of 84 accessions representing a wide range of cultivated market classes, as well as wild blueberry species, and surveyed these for the presence of iridoids. We identified the iridoid glycoside monotropein in fruits and leaves of all 13 wild Vaccinium species, yet only five of the 71 cultivars. Monotropein positive cultivars all had recent introgressions from wild species, suggesting that iridoid production can be targeted through breeding efforts that incorporate wild germplasm. A series of diverse developmental tissues was also surveyed in the diversity panel, demonstrating a wide range in iridoid content across tissues. Taken together, this data provides the foundation to dissect the molecular and genetic basis of iridoid production in blueberry.

  7. Differential iridoid production as revealed by a diversity panel of 84 cultivated and wild blueberry species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P; Kamileen, Mohamed O; Conway, Megan E; O'Connor, Sarah E; Buell, C Robin

    2017-01-01

    Cultivated blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum, Vaccinium angustifolium, Vaccinium darrowii, and Vaccinium virgatum) is an economically important fruit crop native to North America and a member of the Ericaceae family. Several species in the Ericaceae family including cranberry, lignonberry, bilberry, and neotropical blueberry species have been shown to produce iridoids, a class of pharmacologically important compounds present in over 15 plant families demonstrated to have a wide range of biological activities in humans including anti-cancer, anti-bacterial, and anti-inflammatory. While the antioxidant capacity of cultivated blueberry has been well studied, surveys of iridoid production in blueberry have been restricted to fruit of a very limited number of accessions of V. corymbosum, V. angustifolium and V. virgatum; none of these analyses have detected iridoids. To provide a broader survey of iridoid biosynthesis in cultivated blueberry, we constructed a panel of 84 accessions representing a wide range of cultivated market classes, as well as wild blueberry species, and surveyed these for the presence of iridoids. We identified the iridoid glycoside monotropein in fruits and leaves of all 13 wild Vaccinium species, yet only five of the 71 cultivars. Monotropein positive cultivars all had recent introgressions from wild species, suggesting that iridoid production can be targeted through breeding efforts that incorporate wild germplasm. A series of diverse developmental tissues was also surveyed in the diversity panel, demonstrating a wide range in iridoid content across tissues. Taken together, this data provides the foundation to dissect the molecular and genetic basis of iridoid production in blueberry.

  8. Medicinal Plants of the markets of Izúcar de Matamoros and Acatlán de Osorio, Puebla

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Martínez Moreno

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In Mexico the traditional markets are places that reflect the interaction between people and plants, so they come to define the identity in the area where they are. Theobjective of the present study was to record marketing, use, and source of medicinal plants as well as the comparison between the markets of Izúcar de Matamoros and Acatlán de Osorio, in the State of Puebla. In order to achieve the proposed objective 6 visits to the 'Revolution' of Izúcar de Matamoros market and 24 to the "General Rafael Sanchez Taboada" market at of Acatlán de Osorio were made. Structured Interviews were made to people who sell the plants, in order to record their common name, use, preparation, route of administration, the kind of disease they cure, healing, cost per sample, origin of species, time in collecting them and, if they are indirectly bought, how much sellers pay for each one and how they learned the use of medicinal plants. The collection of the botanical material was conducted through the acquisition of samples in fresh and dry, for subsequent identification. The results showed that in the Izúcar de Matamoros market 1133 stands were recorded; in 0.71% of them medicinal plantsare sold; the number of registered species was 49 -49genera and 35 families- being the family Asteraceae the most outstanding, with 12 genera. As for its origin, 43 of these species are wild and 11 are grown, some of them have double performance. In the Acatlán de Osorio market 641 stands were registered, where the 1.71% are of medicinal plants; the number of medicinal species was 144, with 122 genera and 71 families. The most outstanding families were Asteraceae, Lamiaceae, and Fabaceae. From all the registered species of medicinal plants we found that 61 are introduced, 73 native and the origin of 10 of them is unknown. We also registered, according to the surveys applied to sellers, that 110 species are wild and 33 cultivated, all of which are sold both fresh and dry. The

  9. The economics of international coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulus, Moritz

    2012-07-13

    In the scope of four related essays this thesis analyses the Chinese domestic coal sector and coal trade policies and their respective impact on international steam coal trade economics. In particular, the thesis investigates the role of domestic transport infrastructure investment policies as well as Chinese coal export and import controls and the potential exertion of market power through such trade instruments. For this purpose, several spatial equilibrium models have been developed that enable simulation runs to compare different policy scenarios. These models also permit ex-post analyses to empirically test hypotheses of non-competitive market conduct of individual players under the assumption of Cournot behaviour. These model-based analyses yield, among others, the following findings: If coal is converted into electricity early in the Chinese energy supply chain, worldwide marginal costs of supply are substantially lower than if coal is transported via railway. This can reduce China's dependence on international imports significantly. Allocation of welfare changes, particularly in favour of Chinese consumers while rents of international producers decrease. If not only seaborne trade but also interactions and feedbacks between domestic coal markets and international trade markets are accounted for, trade volumes and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fit the real market outcome best in 2008. Real Chinese export quotas have been consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Uncertainties with regard to future Chinese coal demand and coal sector policies generate significant costs for international investors and lead to a spatial and temporal reallocation of mining and infrastructure investments. The potential exertion of Chinese demand side market power would further reduce the overall investment activity of exporters.

  10. The economics of international coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulus, Moritz

    2012-01-01

    In the scope of four related essays this thesis analyses the Chinese domestic coal sector and coal trade policies and their respective impact on international steam coal trade economics. In particular, the thesis investigates the role of domestic transport infrastructure investment policies as well as Chinese coal export and import controls and the potential exertion of market power through such trade instruments. For this purpose, several spatial equilibrium models have been developed that enable simulation runs to compare different policy scenarios. These models also permit ex-post analyses to empirically test hypotheses of non-competitive market conduct of individual players under the assumption of Cournot behaviour. These model-based analyses yield, among others, the following findings: If coal is converted into electricity early in the Chinese energy supply chain, worldwide marginal costs of supply are substantially lower than if coal is transported via railway. This can reduce China's dependence on international imports significantly. Allocation of welfare changes, particularly in favour of Chinese consumers while rents of international producers decrease. If not only seaborne trade but also interactions and feedbacks between domestic coal markets and international trade markets are accounted for, trade volumes and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fit the real market outcome best in 2008. Real Chinese export quotas have been consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Uncertainties with regard to future Chinese coal demand and coal sector policies generate significant costs for international investors and lead to a spatial and temporal reallocation of mining and infrastructure investments. The potential exertion of Chinese demand side market power would further reduce the overall investment activity of exporters.

  11. Market architecture and power demand management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rious, Vincent; Roques, Fabien

    2014-12-01

    Demand response is a cornerstone problem in electricity markets considering climate change constraint. Most liberalized electricity markets have a poor track record at developing demand response. In Europe, different models are considered for demand response, from a development under a regulated regime to a development under competitive perspectives. In this paper, focusing on demand response for mid-size and small consumers, we investigate which types of market signals should be sent to demand response aggregators to see demand response emerge as a competitive activity. Using data from the French power system over eight years, we compare the possible market design options to allow demand response to develop. Our simulations demonstrate that with the current market rules, demand response is not a profitable activity in the French electricity industry. Introducing a capacity remuneration could bring additional revenues to demand response aggregators if the power system has no over-capacity

  12. Large Scale Simulation Platform for NODES Validation Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sotorrio, P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Qin, Y. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Min, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-04-27

    This report summarizes the Large Scale (LS) simulation platform created for the Eaton NODES project. The simulation environment consists of both wholesale market simulator and distribution simulator and includes the CAISO wholesale market model and a PG&E footprint of 25-75 feeders to validate the scalability under a scenario of 33% RPS in California with additional 17% of DERS coming from distribution and customers. The simulator can generate hourly unit commitment, 5-minute economic dispatch, and 4-second AGC regulation signals. The simulator is also capable of simulating greater than 10k individual controllable devices. Simulated DERs include water heaters, EVs, residential and light commercial HVAC/buildings, and residential-level battery storage. Feeder-level voltage regulators and capacitor banks are also simulated for feeder-level real and reactive power management and Vol/Var control.

  13. Regulation and development of the Argentinean gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponzo, Ricardo; Dyner, Isaac; Arango, Santiago; Larsen, Erik R.

    2011-01-01

    Gas markets are becoming increasingly important around the world and the long-term evolution of these markets is of strategic importance for many countries. This makes it essential to understand how regulation and intervention in these markets affects the long-term prospect for the secure supply of gas. We use Argentina as a case to illustrate some of the issues and consequences of gas regulation. Argentina is a country that has had a significant increase in the use of gas over the years, and where a potential gas deficit looms large in the present and the future. Based on a simulation model developed to understand the supply of gas in Argentina, we discuss how regulation will influence the long-term supply of gas in both Argentina and surrounding countries. Using the model, we develop a series of scenarios to highlight the consequences of different current and possible future interventions in the market by the Regulator. Finally, we discuss short-term regulatory options to reduce the impact of a gas deficit, and the possibility of securing the long-term supply of gas in Argentina. - Research Highlights: →This study show that even short intervention in markets can have long term impact. →Simulation can help to understand the evolution of the Argentinean gas markets. →Scenarios highlight the gas shortage.

  14. Retailers' risk management and vertical arrangements in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun; Zachmann, Georg

    2012-01-01

    The failure of the asset-light retailer's organizational model is indicative of the incapacity of this organizational structure to manage efficiently the combination of sourcing and market risks in the current market environment. Because of the structural dimensions of electricity's market risks, a retailer's level of risk exposure is unknown ex ante and will only be revealed ex post when consumption is known. In contrast to the “textbook model” of electricity reforms, the paper demonstrates through numerical simulations that in the current market context pure portfolios of contracts are incomplete risk management instruments compared to physical hedging. The latter is critical to overcome the asset-light retailer's curse. - Highlights: ► The paper analyses the risks faced by electricity retailers. ► We study the limits of contractual hedging. ► Through numerical simulations, we compare the risk profiles of different portfolios of hedging. ► We demonstrate the superior efficiency of physical hedging.

  15. WildSense: Monitoring Interactions among Wild Deer in Harsh Outdoor Environments Using a Delay-Tolerant WSN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junho Ahn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Biologists and ecologists often monitor the spread of disease among deer in the wild by using tracking systems that record their movement patterns, locations, and interaction behavior. The existing commercial systems for monitoring wild deer utilize collars with GPS sensors, deployed on captured and rereleased deer. The GPS sensors record location data every few hours, enabling researchers to approximate the interaction behavior of tracked deer with their GPS locations. However, the coarse granularity of periodically recorded GPS location data provides only limited precision for determining deer interaction behavior. We have designed a novel system to monitor wild deer interaction behavior more precisely in harsh wilderness environments. Our system combines the functionalities of both GPS and RF-radio sensors with low-cost and minimal-resource motes. We designed and built our system to be able to operate robustly for a period of up to several months for continual tracking and monitoring of the locations and interaction behaviors of wild deer in harsh environments. We successfully deployed six deer collars on six wild deer that were captured and rereleased in the Soapstone Prairie Natural Area of northern Colorado over a one-month period. In this paper, we describe how we designed and built this system and evaluate its successful operation in a wilderness area.

  16. Temporary Water Markets in Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slim Zekri

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Market vis-à-vis command and control approaches have been widely adopted in natural resource and environmental management since the 1980s. Adoption of markets in managing irrigation water resources is also emerging. It has been argued that markets are ineffective in managing the demand for irrigation water due to very low price elasticity. Most studies have been based on mathematical models simulating water markets and not on observed prices and quantities in real water markets since such data are rarely available. In Oman, perhaps in response to the extreme scarcity of water, elaborate water demand management institutions emulating markets have evolved and have been used for centuries. Water entitlements are leased based on prices through a community auction. The traded quantities of water and related prices have been recorded. This study uses this unique data set to estimate the elasticity of irrigation water. A log function on quantity and price of irrigation water is used with dummy variables on time and type of irrigation system. The price elasticity varies from -0.10 to -0.28, depending on the specifications of the econometric model. These estimates are higher than most estimates reported in past studies, indicating the efficacy of the indigenous market-based irrigation water management institution adopted in Oman.

  17. Correlation dimension of financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Chun-Xiao

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, correlation dimension is applied to financial data analysis. We calculate the correlation dimensions of some real market data and find that the dimensions are significantly smaller than those of the simulation data based on geometric Brownian motion. Based on the analysis of the Chinese and US stock market data, the main results are as follows. First, by calculating three data sets for the Chinese and US market, we find that large market volatility leads to a significant decrease in the dimensions. Second, based on 5-min stock price data, we find that the Chinese market dimension is significantly larger than the US market; this shows a significant difference between the two markets for high frequency data. Third, we randomly extract stocks from a stock set and calculate the correlation dimensions, and find that the average value of these dimensions is close to the dimension of the original set. In addition, we analyse the intuitional meaning of the relevant dimensions used in this paper, which are directly related to the average degree of the financial threshold network. The dimension measures the speed of the average degree that varies with the threshold value. A smaller dimension means that the rate of change is slower.

  18. High altitude species, high profits: can the trade in wild harvested Fritillaria cirrhosa (Liliaceae) be sustained?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, A B; Brinckmann, J A; Pei, S-J; Luo, P; Schippmann, U; Long, X; Bi, Y-F

    2018-05-08

    Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don bulbs contain alkaloids and are one of the most intensively exploited alpine Himalayan medicinal species. In terms of proprietary medicines, our study shows that 210 F. cirrhosa products are offered by 46 suppliers, most of which (44) are situated in China and two in Nepal. A widepread commercial use is as one of the main ingredients in cough syrups. A well known example is "Nin Jiom Pei Pa Koa Herbal Cough & Throat Syrup", which typically contains more F. cirrhosa than any other herbal ingredient in the formulation. The biggest market for F. cirrhosa bulbs is China, where demand exceeds supply of this wild harvested species for use in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Cross-border trade from Nepal to China occurs in significant quantities. Bhutan also imports F. cirrhosa bulbs from Nepal. In addition, F. cirrhosa is registered as an active ingredient in traditional herbal medicinal preparations in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. There is also an export trade in F. cirrhosa to Europe. Assessing how much F. cirrhosa is traded is complex, however, due to a "look-alike" challenge, as nine Chinese Fritillaria species are traded in Europe (Fritillaria cirrhosa, F. delavayi, F. hupehensis, F. pallidiflora, F. przewalskii, F. thunbergii, F. unibracteata, F. ussuriensis and F. walujewii). The aims of this review were to assess the scale of the global trade in F. cirrhosa, and to synthesise studies of the impacts of wild harvest on F. cirrhosa populations and on the extent of emerging cultivation initiatives as an alternative to wild harvest. Firstly, we reviewed published information on studies on impacts of wild F. cirrhosa harvest from across the geographic range of this species. Secondly, global trade data for F. cirrhosa were analysed. The principal demand for F. cirrhosa bulbs is in China, where hundreds of different companies produce Fritillaria preparations. Trade data also show that

  19. Smart Markets for Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffensperger, John

    2017-04-01

    Commercial water users often want to trade water, but their trades can hurt other users and the environment. So government has to check every transaction. This checking process is slow and expensive. That's why "free market" water trading doesn't work, especially with trading between a single buyer and a single seller. This talk will describe a water trading mechanism designed to solve these problems. The trading mechanism is called a "smart market". A smart market allows simultaneous many-to-many trades. It can reduce the transaction costs of water trading, while improving environmental outcomes. The smart market depends on a combination of recent technologies: hydrology simulation, computer power, and the Internet. Our smart market design uses standard hydrological models, user bids from a web page, and computer optimization to maximize the economic value of water while meeting all environmental constraints. Before the smart market can be implemented, however, users and the water agency must meet six critical prerequisites. These prerequisites may be viewed as simply good water management that should be done anyway. I will describe these prerequisites, and I will briefly discuss common arguments against water markets. This talk will be an abstract of a forthcoming book, "Smart Markets for Water Resources: A Manual for Implementation," by John F. Raffensperger and Mark W. Milke, from Springer Publishing.

  20. Market Design for Rapid Demand Response - The Case of Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Kurt Nielsen; Tseganesh Wubale Tamirat

    2014-01-01

    We suggest a market design for rapid demand response in electricity markets. The solution consists of remotely controlled switches, meters, forecasting models as well as a flexible auction market to set prices and select endusers job by job. The auction market motivates truth-telling and makes it simple to involve the endusers in advance and to activate demand response immediately. The collective solution is analyzed and economic simulations are conducted for the case of Kenya. Kenya has been...

  1. Influence of livestock markets on the spread of FMD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate, whether cattle markets would influence the duration, size and economic consequences of a potential FMD epidemic in Denmark. The spread of FMD was simulated using the InterSpread Plus. For movements of cattle to and from markets, we modeled the frequency...... of movements to markets for the individual herd and categorized herds that could receive contacts from markets. The epidemics were initiated in herds with market contacts. In a basic market scenario, we used the individual herds’ probability of moving animals to markets, while in a control scenario we reduced...... all probabilities of movements to markets to zero, to reflect a situation with no markets. Each scenario was initiated in 386 different herds (index), and for each index herd, the model was run 100 times. The number of extra contacts generated through a market was set to 3.5 and the probability...

  2. Economic benefit of fertility control in wild horse populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, J.

    2007-01-01

    I projected costs for several contraceptive treatments that could be used by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to manage 4 wild horse (Equus caballus) populations. Potential management alternatives included existing roundup and selective removal methods combined with contraceptives of different duration and effectiveness. I projected costs for a 20-year economic life using the WinEquus?? wild horse population model and state-by-state cost estimates reflecting BLM's operational expenses. Findings revealed that 1) currently available 2-year contraceptives in most situations are capable of reducing variable operating costs by 15%, 2) experimental 3-year contraceptives may be capable of reducing costs by 18%, and 3) combining contraceptives with modest changes to herd sex ratio (e.g., 55-60% M) could trim costs by 30%. Predicted savings can increase when contraception is applied in conjunction with a removal policy that targets horses aged 0-4 years instead of 0-5 years. However, reductions in herd size result in greater variation in annual operating expenses. Because the horse program's variable operating costs make up about half of the total program costs (which include other fixed costs), contraceptive application and management can only reduce total costs by 14%, saving about $6.1 million per year. None of the contraceptive options I examined eliminated the need for long-term holding facilities over the 20-year period simulated, but the number of horses held may be reduced by about 17% with contraceptive treatment. Cost estimates were most sensitive to the oldest age adoptable and per-day holding costs. The BLM will experience significant cost savings as carefully designed contraceptive programs become widespread in the wild horse herds it manages.

  3. Getting a Read on the App Stores: A Market Scan and Analysis of Children's Literacy Apps. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaala, Sarah; Ly, Anna; Levine, Michael H.

    2015-01-01

    In previous research the "Joan Ganz Cooney Center" and "New America" have characterized the children's educational app market as a "Digital Wild West" (Guernsey, Levine, Chiong & Severns, 2012; Shuler, 2011). The marketplace is chock full of choices but lacks essential information to aid parents' and educators'…

  4. Getting a Read on the App Stores: A Market Scan and Analysis of Children's Literacy Apps. Full Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaala, Sarah; Ly, Anna; Levine, Michael H.

    2015-01-01

    In previous research the "Joan Ganz Cooney Center" and "New America" have characterized the children's educational app market as a "Digital Wild West" (Guernsey, Levine, Chiong & Severns, 2012; Shuler, 2011). The marketplace is chock full of choices but lacks essential information to aid parents' and educators'…

  5. Wild Marshmallows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallas, John N.

    1984-01-01

    Provides information for teaching a unit on wild plants, including resources to use, plants to learn, safety considerations, list of plants (with scientific name, edible parts, and uses), list of plants that might cause allergic reactions when eaten. Also describes the chickweed, bull thistle, and common mallow. (BC)

  6. Commentary: Wild psychometrics: Evidence for ‘general’ cognitive performance in wild New Zealand robins, Petroica longipes

    OpenAIRE

    Hackett, Paul M. W.

    2017-01-01

    A commentary on\\ud Wild psychometrics: Evidence for ‘general’ cognitive performance in wild New Zealand robins, Petroica longipes\\ud \\ud by Shaw, R. C., Boogert, N. J., Clayton, N. S., and Burns, K. C. (2015). Anim. Behav. 109, 101–111. doi: 10.1016/j.anbehav.2015.08.001

  7. Investigation of arc repressor DNA-binding specificity by comparative molecular dynamics simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wei; Guo, Jun-Tao

    2015-01-01

    Transcription factors regulate gene expression through binding to specific DNA sequences. How transcription factors achieve high binding specificity is still not well understood. In this paper, we investigated the role of protein flexibility in protein-DNA-binding specificity by comparative molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Protein flexibility has been considered as a key factor in molecular recognition, which is intrinsically a dynamic process involving fine structural fitting between binding components. In this study, we performed comparative MD simulations on wild-type and F10V mutant P22 Arc repressor in both free and complex conformations. The F10V mutant has lower DNA-binding specificity though both the bound and unbound main-chain structures between the wild-type and F10V mutant Arc are highly similar. We found that the DNA-binding motif of wild-type Arc is structurally more flexible than the F10V mutant in the unbound state, especially for the six DNA base-contacting residues in each dimer. We demonstrated that the flexible side chains of wild-type Arc lead to a higher DNA-binding specificity through forming more hydrogen bonds with DNA bases upon binding. Our simulations also showed a possible conformational selection mechanism for Arc-DNA binding. These results indicate the important roles of protein flexibility and dynamic properties in protein-DNA-binding specificity.

  8. Security-Constrained Resource Planning in Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Jae Hyung; Shahidehpour, Mohammad; Yong Fu

    2007-06-01

    We propose a market-based competitive generation resource planning model in electricity markets. The objective of the model is to introduce the impact of transmission security in a multi-GENCO generation resource planning. The proposed approach is based on effective decomposition and coordination strategies. Lagrangian relaxation and Benders decomposition like structure are applied to the model. Locational price signal and capacity signal are defined for the simulation of competition among GENCOs and the coordination of security between GENCOs and the regulatory body (ISO). The numerical examples exhibit the effectiveness of the proposed generation planning model in electricity markets.

  9. Environmental Surveillance System To Track Wild Poliovirus Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Jagadish M.; Shetty, Sushmitha J.; Siddiqui, Zaeem A.

    2003-01-01

    Eradication of poliomyelitis from large metropolis cities in India has been difficult due to high population density and the presence of large urban slums. Three paralytic poliomyelitis cases were reported in Mumbai, India, in 1999 and 2000 in spite of high immunization coverage and good-quality supplementary immunization activities. We therefore established a systematic environmental surveillance study by weekly screening of sewage samples from three high-risk slum areas to detect the silent transmission of wild poliovirus. In 2001, from among the 137 sewage samples tested, wild poliovirus type 1 was isolated from 35 and wild poliovirus type 3 was isolated from 1. Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance indicated one case of paralytic poliomyelitis from the city. Phylogenetic analysis with complete VP1 sequences revealed that the isolates from environmental samples belonged to four lineages of wild polioviruses recently isolated from poliomyelitis cases in Uttar Pradesh and not to those previously isolated from AFP cases in Mumbai. Wild poliovirus thus introduced caused one case of paralytic poliomyelitis. The virus was detected in environmental samples 3 months before. It was found that wild polioviruses introduced several times during the year circulated in Mumbai for a limited period before being eliminated. Environmental surveillance was found to be sensitive for the detection of wild poliovirus silent transmission. Nucleotide sequence analysis helped identify wild poliovirus reservoir areas. PMID:12732567

  10. Geographic distribution of wild potato species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hijmans, R.J.; Spooner, D.M.

    2001-01-01

    The geographic distribution of wild potatoes (Solanaceae sect. Petota) was analyzed using a database of 6073 georeferenced observations. Wild potatoes occur in 16 countries, but 88% of the observations are from Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, and Peru. Most species are rare and narrowly endemic: for 77

  11. PREDICTION OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE INSURANCE MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN THE SVERDLOVSK REGION IN 2010 WITH APPLICATION OF THE SIMULATION MODELING METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. U. Vedmed

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Key parameters characterizing a level of development of insurance business in a region are the following indicators: insurance density and insurance penetration. To analyze the level of the given indicators for the market of the Sverdlovsk region in 2010, methods of simulation modeling have been applied. Two assumptions concerning probabilistic distribution of initial parameters have been considered in the issue; the given parameters are: normal distribution and level distribution.

  12. Wild steelhead studies. 1993 Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holubetz, T.B.

    1995-11-01

    Significant progress was attained in implementing the complex and challenging studies of wild steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss production in Idaho. Study sites were selected and techniques were developed to collect the needed data in remote wilderness locations. Cursory examination of existing data provides indication that most wild steelhead stocks are under escaped, especially the Group B stocks. Abundance of wild steelhead is generally declining in recent years. The portable weir concept and electronic fish counting developed through this project have been well received by land owners and reviewing governmental agencies with less impact to the land, stream, and fishery resources than conventional permanent weirs

  13. Dynamic Matching Markets and the Deferred Acceptance Mechanism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kennes, John; Monte, Daniel; Tumennasan, Norovsambuu

    In many dynamic matching markets, priorities depend on previous allocations. In such environments, agents on the proposing side can manipulate the period-by-period deferred acceptance (DA) mechanism. We show that the fraction of agents with incentives to manipulate the DA mechanism approaches zero...... as the market size increases. In addition, we provide a novel al- gorithm to calculate the percentage of markets that can be manipulated. Based on randomly generated data, we find that the DA becomes approximately non-manipulable when the schools capacity reaches 20. Our theoretical and simulation results...... together justify the implementation of the period-by-period DA mechanism in dynamic markets....

  14. Wild and semi-wild leafy vegetables used by the Maale and Ari ethnic communities in southern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kidane, Berhane; Maesen, van der L.J.G.; Asfaw, Zemede; Sosef, M.S.M.; Andel, van Tinde

    2015-01-01

    We studied wild and semi-wild leafy vegetables used by the Maale and Ari ethnic communities in southern Ethiopia. Quantitative and qualitative ethnobotanical methods, including individual and focus group (n = 18) discussions, field observations, and individual interviews (n = 144), were used in

  15. Parasitic infections of wild rabbits and hares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilić Tamara

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the most important parasitic infections of wild rabbits and hares, which harmful effect in this animal population is manifested as a gradual weakening of the immune system, reduction in fertility, weight loss and constant exhaustion. Order of Lagomorpha (hares or lagomorphs belongs to superorder of higher mammals which includes the family of rabbits (Leporidae which are represented in Europe as well as the family of whistleblowers (Ochotonidae which live only in North America and Northern regions of Asia. The most important representatives of Leporidae family are European hare (Lepus europeus and wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus. The most important endoparasitosis of hares and wild rabbits are: coccidiosis, encephalitozoonosis (nosemosis, toxoplasmosis, sarcocystosis, giardiasis, cryptosporidiosis, protostrongylosis, trichostrngylodosis, passalurosis, anoplocephalidosis, cysticercosis and fasciolosis. The most frequent ectoparasites of rabbits and wild hares are fleas, lice and ticks. Reduction in hare population, which is noticed in whole Europe including Serbia, is caused by changed living conditions, quantitatively and qualitatively insufficient nutrition, increased use of herbicides as well as various infectious diseases and the diseases of parasitic etiology. Since wild rabbits and hares pose a threat to health of domestic rabbits and people, knowledge of parasitic fauna of these wild animals is of extreme epizootiological and epidemiological importance.

  16. Creating competitive markets for ancillary services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirst, E.; Kirby, B.

    1997-10-01

    This report describes the structure of, and results from, a spreadsheet model. The model simulates markets for seven services: losses, regulation, spinning reserve, supplemental reserve,load following, energy imbalance, and voltage support. For completeness, the model also calculates costs for system control, although this service will continue to be provided solely the the system operator under cost-based prices. This computer model demonstrated the likely complexity of markets for energy and ancillary services. This complexity arises because these markets are highly interdependent. Because these markets are interactive, the costs and therefore the prices of these services will vary considerably as functions of system load and the current spot price of energy. The price of ancillary services in aggregate is highly correlated with the price of energy. A base-case utility was developed for use with the model and included in the report.

  17. Wild mountains, wild rivers: Keeping the sacred origins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda Moon Stumpff

    2007-01-01

    For many indigenous peoples in North America, wild mountains and rivers and other natural formations exist as physical beings formed as part of a whole by forces that interconnect people with them. This perspective frames a discussion around an idea that expresses time and space as wrapped up in the mountain. If time is within the being of place and space within the...

  18. Investment incentives in the Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jung-Yeon; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beum; Koh, Kyung-Ho; Bunn, Derek W.

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a model-based analysis of the effects of various capacity incentive systems on new investment in the Korean electricity market. The restructuring process in Korea allocated power generation to six firms, competing within a wholesale market, albeit strictly on a cost basis. Because of this cost-based pool, capacity payments were also introduced to encourage new investment. However, it is an open question whether the current fixed capacity payment scheme is enough to secure resource adequacy, and consideration is being given to alternative mechanisms such as the use of LOLP. Using a detailed market simulation model, based on system dynamics, we compare these approaches in terms of how they may influence the investors' decisions and thereby determine the system reserve margin. The simulation results suggest that there may be serious problems in staying with the current fixed capacity payments in order to achieve resource adequacy. In contrast, an LOLP-based capacity mechanism may, in the longer term, increase the reserve margin compared with a fixed capacity payment. More generally, this paper indicates how crucial the effective modeling of the investment behavior of the independent power producers is for adequate policy support, even if they only constitute a fringe in a substantially centrally influenced market

  19. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  20. Generation capacity adequacy in interdependent electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepeda, Mauricio; Finon, Dominique

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term security of supply in regional electricity markets with transmission constraints. Differences between regulatory policies and market designs in terms of generation adequacy policies may distort the normal functioning of the neighboring markets, as well as the reliability of supply. We test the effect of heterogeneous regulatory design between two interdependent markets: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. We rely on a long-term market simulation model in system dynamics that characterizes expansion decision in a competitive regime. The results show that differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. We examine both the short and long terms effect, and how free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other. The main finding is that the lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. - Research highlights: → We model the long-term dynamic of two interdependent markets. → We examine both the short and long terms effect of heterogeneous regulatory design: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. → Differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. → Lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. → Free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other.

  1. The wild tapered block bootstrap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hounyo, Ulrich

    In this paper, a new resampling procedure, called the wild tapered block bootstrap, is introduced as a means of calculating standard errors of estimators and constructing confidence regions for parameters based on dependent heterogeneous data. The method consists in tapering each overlapping block...... of the series first, the applying the standard wild bootstrap for independent and heteroscedastic distrbuted observations to overlapping tapered blocks in an appropriate way. Its perserves the favorable bias and mean squared error properties of the tapered block bootstrap, which is the state-of-the-art block......-order asymptotic validity of the tapered block bootstrap as well as the wild tapered block bootstrap approximation to the actual distribution of the sample mean is also established when data are assumed to satisfy a near epoch dependent condition. The consistency of the bootstrap variance estimator for the sample...

  2. Market review - Market values summary/July market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the July 1995 uranium market review. Data for current uranium market is presented, and a summary of recent transactions is also given. During this reporting period, there was one concentrate deal, two transactions in the long-term natural uranium market and conversion market, and three spot market transactions in the enrichment market. Active uranium supply fell, as did demand, and prices in all sectors were relatively stable

  3. Self-willed learning: experiments in wild pedagogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jickling, Bob

    2015-03-01

    This paper is comprised of written text and photographs of wild experiences that relive a series of ontological experiments. The text represents reflections on these experiences. The photographs, artistic expressions of the same experiences, have been made with a homemade pinhole camera—without a lens and viewfinder—thus demanding special sensual presence during creation. The form of this experimental work is reminiscent of a lyric philosophy that seeks to engage the participant—reader of text and viewer of images—with these experiments. Component pairings are arranged for viewing with text on the left and photographs on the right. Together these parings invite participants to explore patterned resonances in the world. Implicit throughout are considerations of relationships between wildness, wild learning, and a form of wild pedagogy.

  4. Explaining the resurgent popularity of the wild: motivations for wild plant gathering in the Biosphere Reserve Grosses Walsertal, Austria

    OpenAIRE

    Schunko, Christoph; Grasser, Susanne; Vogl, Christian R.

    2015-01-01

    Background Wild plant gathering becomes again a popular and fashionable activity in Europe after gathering practices have been increasingly abandoned over the last decades. Recent ethnobotanical research documented a diversity of gathering practices from people of diverse socio-economic and cultural backgrounds who gather in urban and rural areas. Few efforts were though made to study the motivations for gathering wild plants and to understand the resurgent popularity of wild plant gathering....

  5. Essays on microgrids, asymmetric pricing and market power in electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Prete, Chiara

    This dissertation presents four studies of the electricity industry. The first and second essays use economic-engineering models to assess different aspects of microgrid penetration in regional electricity markets, while the last two studies contain empirical analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 2 develops a framework to quantify economic, environmental, efficiency and reliability impacts of different power production scenarios in a regional system, focusing on the interaction of microgrids with the existing transmission and distribution grid. The setting is the regional network formed by Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. The study presents simulations of power market outcomes under various policies and levels of microgrid penetration, and evaluates them using a diverse set of metrics. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between a microgrid and a regulated electric utility in a regional electricity market. I consider the interaction among the utility, the microgrid developer and consumers in the framework of cooperative game theory (assuming exchangeable utility), and use regional market models to simulate scenarios in which microgrid introduction may or may not be socially beneficial. Under the assumptions of this chapter, customer participation is essential to the development of socially beneficial microgrids, while the utility has little or no gain from it. Discussed incentives to avoid that utilities block microgrid entry include additional revenue drivers related to microgrid connection, decoupling and performance-based mechanisms targeted at service quality. When prices are below marginal costs of utility provided power, microgrid development may be socially beneficial, but unprofitable for microgrid customers and its developer. By imposing lower charges and higher remuneration for its services, the regulator could ensure that microgrid value is positive, without adversely impacting the utility

  6. Evaluating impact of market changes on increasing cell-load variation in dynamic cellular manufacturing systems using a hybrid Tabu search and simulated annealing algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aidin Delgoshaei

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new method is proposed for scheduling dynamic cellular manufacturing systems (D-CMS in the presence of uncertain product demands. The aim of this method is to control the process of trading off between in-house manufacturing and outsourcing while product demands are uncertain and can be varied from period to period. To solve the proposed problem, a hybrid Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing are developed to overcome hardness of the proposed model and then results are compared with a Branch and Bound and Simulated Annealing algorithms. A Taguchi method (L_27 orthogonal optimization is used to estimate parameters of the proposed method in order to solve experiments derived from literature. An in-depth analysis is conducted on the results in consideration of various factors. For evaluating the system imbalance in dynamic market demands, a new measuring index is developed. Our findings indicate that the uncertain condition of market demands affects the routing of product parts and may induce machine-load variations that yield to cell-load diversity. The results showed that the proposed hybrid method can provide solutions with better quality.

  7. Mycoplasma gallopavonis in eastern wild turkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luttrell, M P; Eleazer, T H; Kleven, S H

    1992-04-01

    Serum samples and tracheal cultures were collected from eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo sylvestris) trapped for relocation in South Carolina (USA) during 1985 to 1990. Sera were tested for Mycoplasma gallisepticum and M. synoviae by the rapid plate agglutination and hemagglutination inhibition tests and were found to be negative. Tracheal cultures were negative for all pathogenic Mycoplasma spp., including M. gallisepticum, M. synoviae, M. meleagridis, and M. iowae. However, M. gallopavonis was isolated from every group of wild turkeys tested in 1986 to 1990. These data suggest that M. gallopavonis, which is generally considered nonpathogenic, may be a common microorganism in eastern wild turkeys.

  8. Facebook's personal page modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    In this paper we will try to define the utility of Facebook's Personal Page marketing method. This tool that Facebook provides, is modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Facebook marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following model has been developed for a social media marketing agent/company, Facebook platform oriented and tested in real circumstances. This model is finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, development, simulation, testing and evaluation processes. The validity and usefulness of this Facebook marketing model for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. Facebook's Personal Page method can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the total profit of the company which is to bring new customers, keep the interest of the old customers and deliver traffic to its website.

  9. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lise, Wietze [IBS Research and Consultancy, Aga Han, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir, 34433 Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Ames Hall 313, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2008-07-15

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  10. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2008-01-01

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  11. Energy Flexibility Potential of Industrial Processes in the Regulating Power Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Zheng; Aabjerg Friis, Henrik Tønder; Gravers Mostrup, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    , and electric heating in replacement of conventional technologies. To enable the use of demand response, the consumers must have economical and practical incentives without loss of convenience. This study aims to investigate the demand-response market potential of a flexible industrial process in the current...... electricity market structure. The Danish West regulating power market is selected in this study with an ideal process simulation of an industrial roller press. By analysing market data, the value of flexible electricity consumption by the roller press in the regulating power market is demonstrated by an ideal...

  12. Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation Electricore, Inc.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daye, Tony [Green Power Labs (GPL), San Diego, CA (United States)

    2013-09-30

    This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

  13. The Models of Market Economy on the Modern Technological Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolovska Zoia M.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at analyzing the status of software provision of simulation modeling of economic systems and disclosing the possibilities of application of the integrated software-technological platforms in the building of market models. Problems in the field of applied introduction of the method of simulation modeling have been defined; the status of the software-technological provision of the simulation modeling of economic systems has been analyzed. It has been suggested to use the integrated system of multi-approach simulation modeling AnyLogic as one of the most powerful modern software platforms. The variant of the model of competitive multi-product market adapted to the specifics of pharmaceutical industry enterprises has been considered. The work of the model can be illustrated by results of the situational simulation experiments on the example of the pharmaceutical company «Farmak». The possibilities of parametric adjustment of imitation experiments together with the spectrum of their application in practical activity of pharmaceutical enterprises have been demonstrated.

  14. Hematological profile as a crude oil exposure-related marker in wild rodents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana L. Muccillo-Baisch

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The toxicity of petroleum components is well described in the literature, especially with regard to mutagenic and carcinogenic effects. In some groups of animals, such as birds, oil exposure seems to alter blood parameters, while this relationship is poorly understood in rodents. The study aimed to investigate alterations in hematological profile in the wild rodent Calomys laucha exposed to crude oil contaminated soils. In this study, males specimens of Calomys laucha were exposed for 14 days to two soils contaminated by petroleum: (I landfarming soil, coming from a bioremediation area of contaminated soil from a Petrochemical Complex through landfarming technique and (II soil of a simulated oil spill in laboratory conditions. The animals were exposed individually in cages containing 1 kg soil with free access to food and water. Control animals were exposed to an artificial uncontaminated soil. At the end of the experiment, animals were anesthetized and blood was collected for hematological profile. The animals exposed to soil landfarming had significant reduction in the number of bands, segmented, eosinophils, monocytes, lymphocytes and increased red cell distribution width (RDW, while animals exposed to simulated soil spillage in laboratory had decreased number of bands, but an increase in the number of lymphocytes and platelets. These changes in hemostasis may indicate an early stage of the development of associated pathologies, while the hematological profile can be used as a crude oil exposure-related marker in wild rodents.

  15. The Research on the Effects of College Students’ Satisfaction of Online Marketing Simulation%高校营销模拟教学满意度的调查分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    聂开锦; 桑辉

    2014-01-01

    This paper is developed on a survey study examining the students’ participation’s impact on the satisfaction of marketing online simulation based on the relevant theory model in service marketing. Findings of this study show that students’ satisfaction of the simulation is determined by the participation, which leads to their whole evaluation for the simulation and the future attendance. Online simulation teaching method can be changed to encourage students’ participation, and further improve teaching effects, including reasonable class time and effective class management.%以服务营销的理论模型为基础，以问卷的形式调查了高校营销模拟教学中学生参与度对教学满意度的影响。调查结果显示学生参与是影响模拟教学效果及再次学习意愿的重要因素，模拟教学可通过合理设置开课时间、有效开展课堂组织等方式努力提高学生参与度，从而更好地提升教学效果。

  16. Where is the game? Wild meat products authentication in South Africa: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Maria Eugenia; Alechine, Evguenia; Cloete, Kevin Wesley; Davison, Sean; Corach, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Wild animals' meat is extensively consumed in South Africa, being obtained either from ranching, farming or hunting. To test the authenticity of the commercial labels of meat products in the local market, we obtained DNA sequence information from 146 samples (14 beef and 132 game labels) for barcoding cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and partial cytochrome b and mitochondrial fragments. The reliability of species assignments were evaluated using BLAST searches in GenBank, maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis and the character-based method implemented in BLOG. The Kimura-2-parameter intra- and interspecific variation was evaluated for all matched species. The combined application of similarity, phylogenetic and character-based methods proved successful in species identification. Game meat samples showed 76.5% substitution, no beef samples were substituted. The substitutions showed a variety of domestic species (cattle, horse, pig, lamb), common game species in the market (kudu, gemsbok, ostrich, impala, springbok), uncommon species in the market (giraffe, waterbuck, bushbuck, duiker, mountain zebra) and extra-continental species (kangaroo). The mountain zebra Equus zebra is an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red listed species. We also detected Damaliscus pygargus, which is composed of two subspecies with one listed by IUCN as 'near threatened'; however, these mitochondrial fragments were insufficient to distinguish between the subspecies. The genetic distance between African ungulate species often overlaps with within-species distance in cases of recent speciation events, and strong phylogeographic structure determines within-species distances that are similar to the commonly accepted distances between species. The reliability of commercial labeling of game meat in South Africa is very poor. The extensive substitution of wild game has important implications for conservation and commerce, and for the consumers making decisions on the basis of

  17. Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dieci, Roberto; Foroni, Ilaria; Gardini, Laura; He Xuezhong

    2006-01-01

    Empirical evidence has suggested that, facing different trading strategies and complicated decision, the proportions of agents relying on particular strategies may stay at constant level or vary over time. This paper presents a simple 'dynamic market fraction' model of two groups of traders, fundamentalists and trend followers, under a market maker scenario. Market mood and evolutionary adaption are characterized by fixed and adaptive switching fraction among two groups, respectively. Using local stability and bifurcation analysis, as well as numerical simulation, the role played by the key parameters in the market behaviour is examined. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the market fraction, determined by the fixed proportions of confident fundamentalists and trend followers, and by the proportion of adaptively rational agents, who adopt different strategies over time depending on realized profits

  18. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, I.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price movements, and offers a computationally efficient way of simulating spot prices. The thesis shows that the connection between spot prices and electricity forward prices is nontrivial because electricity is a commodity that must be consumed immediately. Consequently, forward prices of different times are based on the supply-demand conditions at those times. This thesis introduces a statistical model that captures the main characteristics of observed forward price movements. The thesis presents the pricing problems relating to the common Nordic electricity derivatives, as well as the pricing relations between electricity derivatives. The special characteristics of electricity make spot electricity market incomplete. The thesis assumes the existence of a risk-neutral martingale measure so that formal pricing results can be obtained. Some concepts introduced in financial markets are directly usable in the electricity markets. The risk management application in this thesis uses a static optimal portfolio selection framework where Monte Carlo simulation provides quantitative results. The application of mathematical finance requires careful consideration of the special characteristics of the electricity markets. Economic theory and reasoning have to be taken into account when constructing financial models in competitive electricity markets. (orig.)

  19. Unraveling the genetic history of the European wild goats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ureña, I.; Ersmark, E.; Samaniego, J. A.; Galindo-Pellicena, M. A.; Crégut-Bonnoure, E.; Bolívar, H.; Gómez-Olivencia, A.; Rios-Garaizar, J.; Garate, D.; Dalén, L.; Arsuaga, J. L.; Valdiosera, C. E.

    2018-04-01

    The population history of the Iberian wild goat and the Alpine ibex has been closely related to that of humans since the Palaeolithic. Current molecular and paleontological studies differ substantially on the phylogenetic origin of the European wild goats, possibly due the loss of genetic variation through time. We investigated the phylogenetic relationship between the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) and the Iberian wild goat (Capra pyrenaica) including different Iberian wild goat subspecies by applying ancient DNA techniques combined with Next Generation Sequencing technologies. We analysed the cytochrome b gene of the mitochondrial genome in 33 ancient and modern European wild goats from Spain and France together with publicly available genetic information of modern wild goats. This work uncovers for the first time ancient genetic information of the Iberian wild goat and the Alpine ibex, spanning a time range of approximately 40,000 years to the present. Our results suggest genetic continuity between ancient and modern populations and indicate a monophyletic origin of the Alpine ibex and the Iberian wild goat when compared to other Capra species. The monophyly of both species is in agreement with other molecular studies based only on modern populations, therefore supporting one-wave migration of wild goats into Western Europe followed by possible allopatric speciation. We observe three major clades of wild goats in Western Europe: Capra ibex, Capra pyrenaica pyrenaica and the group containing the subspecies Capra pyrenaica hispanica and Capra pyrenaica victoriae. This genetic structure recognizes the distinctiveness of the bucardo (C. p. pyrenaica) from the rest of Iberian wild goats and thus supports the idea that this group is an Evolutionary Significant Unit. The divergence time estimated here indicates an almost contemporaneous split between the three clades around 50,000-90,000 years BP.

  20. A comprehensive market-based scheme for VAR management and pricing in the electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Araby, E.E. [Qassim Univ., Alqassim, Meldia (Saudi Arabia). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    In order to enable a power system to operate within an acceptable degree of reliability and security, the provision of VAR ancillary services from the VAR sources in electricity markets is the most effective method. The procurement of VAR services is particularly problematic for transmission operators as it relates to pricing mechanism and various technical issues during system operation. This paper proposed an integrated market-based approach for pricing VAR service in the electricity market. The paper was an extension of the authors' proposal for the provision of the VAR service from dynamic VAR sources in a competitive market-based environment. The formulation was modified to include VAR utilization payment and possible power system transition states multiple base cases and contingencies with their associated occurrence probabilities. The paper discussed the basic terms of the proposed approach including the VAR market objective and generator VAR output and its compensation. The mathematical formulation that considered VAR capacity payment, utilization payment and operating costs under the previous transition states in a unified single problem were introduced. The overall problem formulation and solution algorithm were also presented as a large-scale mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem. It was concluded that the proposed method was suited for the simulation and analysis of the existing VAR market. 8 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs., 2 appendices.

  1. Power generation scheduling. A free market based procedure with reserve constraints included

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huse, Einar Staale

    1998-01-01

    This thesis deals with the short-term scheduling of electric power generation in a competitive market. This involves determination of start-ups and shut-downs, and production levels of all units in all hours of the optimization period, considering unit characteristics and system restrictions. The unit characteristics and restrictions handled are minimum and maximum production levels, fuel cost function, start-up costs, minimum up time and minimum down time. The system restrictions handled are power balance (supply equals demand in all hours) and spinning reserve requirement. The thesis has two main contributions: (1) A new organization of an hourly electric power market that simultaneously sets the price of both energy and reserve power is proposed. A power exchange is used as a trading place for electricity. Its responsibility is to balance supply and demand bids and to secure enough spinning reserve. Routines for bidding and market clearing are developed. (2) A computer programme that simulates the proposed electricity market has been implemented. The program can also be used as a new method for solving the single owner generation scheduling problem. Simulations show that the performance of the program is excellent. Simulations also show that it is possible to obtain efficient schedules through the proposed electricity market. 37 refs., 20 figs., 15 tabs

  2. Power generation scheduling. A free market based procedure with reserve constraints included

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huse, Einar Staale

    1999-12-31

    This thesis deals with the short-term scheduling of electric power generation in a competitive market. This involves determination of start-ups and shut-downs, and production levels of all units in all hours of the optimization period, considering unit characteristics and system restrictions. The unit characteristics and restrictions handled are minimum and maximum production levels, fuel cost function, start-up costs, minimum up time and minimum down time. The system restrictions handled are power balance (supply equals demand in all hours) and spinning reserve requirement. The thesis has two main contributions: (1) A new organization of an hourly electric power market that simultaneously sets the price of both energy and reserve power is proposed. A power exchange is used as a trading place for electricity. Its responsibility is to balance supply and demand bids and to secure enough spinning reserve. Routines for bidding and market clearing are developed. (2) A computer programme that simulates the proposed electricity market has been implemented. The program can also be used as a new method for solving the single owner generation scheduling problem. Simulations show that the performance of the program is excellent. Simulations also show that it is possible to obtain efficient schedules through the proposed electricity market. 37 refs., 20 figs., 15 tabs.

  3. Power generation scheduling. A free market based procedure with reserve constraints included

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huse, Einar Staale

    1998-12-31

    This thesis deals with the short-term scheduling of electric power generation in a competitive market. This involves determination of start-ups and shut-downs, and production levels of all units in all hours of the optimization period, considering unit characteristics and system restrictions. The unit characteristics and restrictions handled are minimum and maximum production levels, fuel cost function, start-up costs, minimum up time and minimum down time. The system restrictions handled are power balance (supply equals demand in all hours) and spinning reserve requirement. The thesis has two main contributions: (1) A new organization of an hourly electric power market that simultaneously sets the price of both energy and reserve power is proposed. A power exchange is used as a trading place for electricity. Its responsibility is to balance supply and demand bids and to secure enough spinning reserve. Routines for bidding and market clearing are developed. (2) A computer programme that simulates the proposed electricity market has been implemented. The program can also be used as a new method for solving the single owner generation scheduling problem. Simulations show that the performance of the program is excellent. Simulations also show that it is possible to obtain efficient schedules through the proposed electricity market. 37 refs., 20 figs., 15 tabs.

  4. Validity of historical simulation in EU new member and candidate states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heri Bezić

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Market risk arises from movement in the underlying risk factors of a particular security, such as: equity prices, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. With the approval of Basle Committee for Banking Supervision and European Commission on using internally developed market risk measurement models to calculate bank’s market risk provisions, the interest for market risk models has significantly increased. Because financial markets of EU new member and candidate states significantly differ from the developed markets, applying VaR models developed and tested in the developed and liquid financial markets, to the volatile and shallow financial markets of EU new member and candidate states is highly questionable. This paper tests whether using a wide spread market risk measurement model such as Historical simulation adequately measures the market risk in stock markets of EU new member and candidate states. In this paper, the stock market indexes of Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Turkey are used to test the adequacy of measuring market risk based on Historical simulation. The testing is performed out of the sample, with four different observation periods.

  5. Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowled, Brendan D; Garner, M Graeme; Negus, Katherine; Ward, Michael P

    2012-01-16

    Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortality (best estimate 42%) were highly influential on epidemic size but that extraordinary movements of pigs and the yearly home range size of a pig herd were not. CSF generally established (98% of simulations) following a single point introduction. CSF spread at approximately 9 km2 per day with low incidence rates (management in wildlife. An important finding was that it may only be necessary to cull or vaccinate relatively small proportions of a population to successfully contain and eradicate some wildlife disease epidemics.

  6. 50 CFR 12.34 - Return to the wild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Return to the wild. 12.34 Section 12.34... SEIZURE AND FORFEITURE PROCEDURES Disposal of Forfeited or Abandoned Property § 12.34 Return to the wild... the wild in suitable habitat within the historical range of the species in the United States with the...

  7. New marketing, improved marketing, apocryphal marketing: is one marketing concept enough?

    OpenAIRE

    Woodall, T

    2007-01-01

    PURPOSE – This paper seeks to explore marketing's ambiguous relationship with truth and, in so doing, to question the efficacy and value of the marketing concept and the very nature of marketing itself. Is marketing something that marketers do, or is it something much broader than this? If the latter, are marketers themselves either willing, or able to operate beyond traditional boundaries and, if not, should they focus – honourably – on what they do best, and encourage/support others who mig...

  8. The European green electricity markets in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, Peter; Skytte, Klaus

    2003-01-01

    The market shares of different electricity producing renewable energy technologies in the green electricity markets in EU, and the size and prices obtained on these markets depends strongly on the market designs and support policies governing the development of these markets. These issues have been analysed with the use of the ADMIRE REBUS model. Costs data for all significant electricity producing renewable energy technologies and data on the sizes of the renewable energy resources in the EU are combined with different national development of the support policies for green electricity in the different EU countries towards a common EU market in 2010. The model simulates the operation of each green electricity market in EU and the interaction between the markets. Model results show that in a harmonized EU wide tradable green certificate system starting from 2010, i.e. in a system without technology-specific support, wind power will be the most competitive technology, but power plants using different types of biomass will also gain a large share of the market. To reach the indicative EU targets for RES-E production in 2010 a TGC price of 5.6 eurocents is necessary in addition to a physical power price of 2.2 eurocents. (au)

  9. A complementarity model for the European natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egging, Ruud; Gabriel, Steven A.; Holz, Franziska; Zhuang, Jifang

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call 'traders', pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, liquefiers and regasifiers is modeled via optimization problems whose Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions in combination with market-clearing conditions form the complementarity system. The LNG tankers, marketers and consumption sectors are modeled implicitly via appropriate cost functions, aggregate demand curves, and ex post calculations, respectively. The model is run on several case studies that highlight its capabilities, including a simulation of a disruption of Russian supplies via Ukraine

  10. Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in the Iran electricity market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigdeli, N.; Afshar, K.; Amjady, N.

    2009-01-01

    Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in Iran electricity market as a market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered in this paper. The data analysis procedure includes both correlation and predictability analysis of the most important load and price indices. The employed data are the experimental time series from Iran electricity market in its real size and is long enough to make it possible to take properties such as non-stationarity of market into account. For predictability analysis, the bifurcation diagrams and recurrence plots of the data have been investigated. The results of these analyses indicate existence of deterministic chaos in addition to non-stationarity property of the system which implies short-term predictability. In the next step, two artificial neural networks have been developed for forecasting the two price indices in Iran's electricity market. The models' input sets are selected regarding four aspects: the correlation properties of the available data, the critiques of Iran's electricity market, a proper convergence rate in case of sudden variations in the market price behavior, and the omission of cumulative forecasting errors. The simulation results based on experimental data from Iran electricity market are representative of good performance of the developed neural networks in coping with and forecasting of the market behavior, even in the case of severe volatility in the market price indices. (author)

  11. Dynamics and Thermodynamics of Transthyretin Association from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cedrix J. Dongmo Foumthuim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Molecular dynamics simulations are used in this work to probe the structural stability and the dynamics of engineered mutants of transthyretin (TTR, i.e., the double mutant F87M/L110M (MT-TTR and the triple mutant F87M/L110M/S117E (3M-TTR, in relation to wild-type. Free energy analysis from end-point simulations and statistical effective energy functions are used to analyze trajectories, revealing that mutations do not have major impact on protein structure but rather on protein association, shifting the equilibria towards dissociated species. The result is confirmed by the analysis of 3M-TTR which shows dissociation within the first 10 ns of the simulation, indicating that contacts are lost at the dimer-dimer interface, whereas dimers (formed by monomers which pair to form two extended β-sheets appear fairly stable. Overall the simulations provide a detailed view of the dynamics and thermodynamics of wild-type and mutant transthyretins and a rationale of the observed effects.

  12. Marketing Green Fertilizers: Insights into Consumer Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Johannes Dahlin; Verena Halbherr; Peter Kurz; Michael Nelles; Carsten Herbes

    2016-01-01

    In an effort to support the long-term viability of the bioenergy industry through an end market for digestate, we investigated purchasing preferences for fertilizer product features in the home gardening market. We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE), presenting 504 respondents with a total of 6048 product attribute choices in a simulated context that replicated the tradeoff decisions made in the real marketplace. We analyzed the choice data using a hierarchical Bayes estimate to gen...

  13. Tartusse tuleb Wilde'i ja Vilde monument

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    1998-01-01

    Tartu kesklinnas Wilde Irish Pubi ees peaks 1999. a. kevadel avatama kirjanike Oscar Wilde'i ja Eduard Vilde pronkskujud. Elusuuruses kirjanikud hakkavad istuma graniitistmel. Idee autorid - pubipidaja Liam Allen, ettevõtja Marju Unt, skulptor Tiiu Kirsipuu.

  14. Heterogeneous fundamentalists and market maker inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carraro, Alessandro; Ricchiuti, Giorgio

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a heterogeneous agents model of asset price and inventory with a market maker who considers the excess demand of two groups of agents that employ the same trading rule (i.e. fundamentalists) with different beliefs on the fundamental value. The dynamics of our model is driven by a bi-dimensional discrete non-linear map. We show that the market maker has a destabilizing role when she actively manages the inventory. Moreover, inventory share and the distance between agents’ beliefs strongly influence the results: market instability and periodic, or even, chaotic price fluctuations can be generated. Finally, we show through simulations that endogenous fluctuations of the fractions of agents may trigger instability for a larger set of parameters.

  15. Medicinal plants sold in the markets of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randriamiharisoa, Maria Nirina; Kuhlman, Alyse R; Jeannoda, Vololoniaina; Rabarison, Harison; Rakotoarivelo, Nivo; Randrianarivony, Tabita; Raktoarivony, Fortunat; Randrianasolo, Armand; Bussmann, Rainer W

    2015-07-28

    This study focuses on the large outdoor markets of the capital of Madagascar, Antananarivo. As the largest metropolitan area in Madagascar with a population of nearly two million, the region has great capacity for consumption of medicinal plant remedies despite numerous pharmacies. Medicinal plant use spans all socioeconomic levels, and the diverse metropolitan population allows us to study a wide variety of people who consume these plants for medical purposes. The purpose of this study is to identify and generate a list of medicinal plants sold in the traditional markets with a focus on those collected in the forests around Antananarivo, get an idea of the quantities of medicinal plants sold in the markets around Antananarivo, and assess the economy of the medicinal plant markets. In order to determine which medicinal plants are most consumed in Antananarivo, ethnobotanical enquiries were conducted in the five main markets of the capital city. Ethnobotanical surveys were conducted with medicinal plant traders, suppliers, harvesters and cultivators, with voucher specimens created from the plants discussed. Trade circuit information was established and the income generated by the trade of some of the species was assessed. The inventory of the Antananarivo markets resulted in a list of 89 commercialized plant species. Ten of the 89 were mentioned by 60-100 % of vendors. Profitability for vendors is high and competitive with other salaried positions within Antananarivo. Transportation costs are also high and therefore lower profitability for other members in the supply chain. The markets of Antananarivo have always played a vital cultural role in the lives of urban Malagasy, but our study shows they also play an economic role not only for urban residents but rural harvesters as well. Continued research and monitoring of the non-timber forest products trade in Antananarivo is needed to better understand the impact of trade on the wild plant populations.

  16. Innovation in a multiple-stage, multiple-product food marketing chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, Alister Derek; Christensen, Tove

    A model of a 3-stage food marketing chain is presented for the case of two products. Its extension of existing work is its capacity to examine non-competitive input and output markets in two marketing chains at once, and have them related by demand and cost interactions. The simulated impacts...... of market power in a single chain generally reproduce those delivered by previous authors. The impacts of market power in related chains are found to depend on linkages between chains in terms of interactions in consumer demand. Interactions between products in costs (economies of scope) generate...... an interesting result in that a possible market failure is identified that may be offset by the exercise of market power. The generation of farm-level innovation is seen to be largely unaffected by market power, but where market power is exercised the benefits are extracted from farmers and consumers...

  17. Financial Symmetry and Moods in the Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savona, Roberto; Soumare, Maxence; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies how certain speculative transitions in financial markets can be ascribed to a symmetry break that happens in the collective decision making. Investors are assumed to be bounded rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends. Investment strategies are dynamically changed based on realized returns within a game theoretical scheme with Nash equilibria. In such a setting, markets behave as complex systems whose payoff reflect an intrinsic financial symmetry that guarantees equilibrium in price dynamics (fundamentalist state) until the symmetry is broken leading to bubble or anti-bubble scenarios (speculative state). We model such two-phase transition in a micro-to-macro scheme through a Ginzburg-Landau-based power expansion leading to a market temperature parameter which modulates the state transitions in the market. Via simulations we prove that transitions in the market price dynamics can be phenomenologically explained by the number of traders, the number of strategies and amount of information used by agents, all included in our market temperature parameter. PMID:25856392

  18. Financial symmetry and moods in the market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Savona

    Full Text Available This paper studies how certain speculative transitions in financial markets can be ascribed to a symmetry break that happens in the collective decision making. Investors are assumed to be bounded rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends. Investment strategies are dynamically changed based on realized returns within a game theoretical scheme with Nash equilibria. In such a setting, markets behave as complex systems whose payoff reflect an intrinsic financial symmetry that guarantees equilibrium in price dynamics (fundamentalist state until the symmetry is broken leading to bubble or anti-bubble scenarios (speculative state. We model such two-phase transition in a micro-to-macro scheme through a Ginzburg-Landau-based power expansion leading to a market temperature parameter which modulates the state transitions in the market. Via simulations we prove that transitions in the market price dynamics can be phenomenologically explained by the number of traders, the number of strategies and amount of information used by agents, all included in our market temperature parameter.

  19. Inbreeding avoidance influences the viability of reintroduced populations of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny A Becker

    Full Text Available The conservation of many fragmented and small populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus relies on understanding the natural processes affecting genetic diversity, demographics, and future viability. We used extensive behavioural, life-history, and genetic data from reintroduced African wild dogs in South Africa to (1 test for inbreeding avoidance via mate selection and (2 model the potential consequences of avoidance on population persistence. Results suggested that wild dogs avoided mating with kin. Inbreeding was rare in natal packs, after reproductive vacancies, and between sibling cohorts (observed on 0.8%, 12.5%, and 3.8% of occasions, respectively. Only one of the six (16.7% breeding pairs confirmed as third-order (or closer kin consisted of animals that were familiar with each other, while no other paired individuals had any prior association. Computer-simulated populations allowed to experience inbreeding had only a 1.6% probability of extinction within 100 years, whereas all populations avoiding incestuous matings became extinct due to the absence of unrelated mates. Populations that avoided mating with first-order relatives became extinct after 63 years compared with persistence of 37 and 19 years for those also prevented from second-order and third-order matings, respectively. Although stronger inbreeding avoidance maintains significantly more genetic variation, our results demonstrate the potentially severe demographic impacts of reduced numbers of suitable mates on the future viability of small, isolated wild dog populations. The rapid rate of population decline suggests that extinction may occur before inbreeding depression is observed.

  20. Supply and demand determine the market value of food providers in wild vervet monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fruteau, Cécile; Voelkl, Bernhard; van Damme, Eric; Noë, Ronald

    2009-07-21

    Animals neither negotiate verbally nor conclude binding contracts, but nevertheless regularly exchange goods and services without overt coercion and manage to arrive at agreements over exchange rates. Biological market theory predicts that such exchange rates fluctuate according to the law of supply and demand. Previous studies showed that primates pay more when commodities become scarcer: subordinates groomed dominants longer before being tolerated at food sites in periods of shortage; females groomed mothers longer before obtaining permission to handle their infants when there were fewer newborns and males groomed fertile females longer before obtaining their compliance when fewer such females were present. We further substantiated these results by conducting a 2-step experiment in 2 groups of free-ranging vervet monkeys in the Loskop Dam Nature Reserve, South Africa. We first allowed a single low-ranking female to repeatedly provide food to her entire group by triggering the opening of a container and measured grooming bouts involving this female in the hour after she made the reward available. We then measured the shifts in grooming patterns after we added a second food container that could be opened by another low-ranking female, the second provider. All 4 providers received more grooming, relative to the amount of grooming they provided themselves. As biological market theory predicts, the initial gain of first providers was partially lost again after the introduction of a second provider in both groups. We conclude that grooming was fine-tuned to changes in the value of these females as social partners.

  1. Wild food in Europe: a synthesis of knowledge and data of terrestrial wild food as an ecosystem service

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schulp, C.J.E.; Thuiller, W.; Verburg, P.H.

    2014-01-01

    Wild food is an iconic ecosystem service that receives little attention in quantifying, valuating and mapping studies, due to the perceived low importance or due to lack of data. Here, we synthesize available data on the importance of wild food as ecosystem service, its spatial distribution and

  2. Linking electricity prices and costs in bottom-up top-down coupling under changing market environments

    OpenAIRE

    Maire, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    Electricity market liberalization is altering pricing mechanisms in wholesale electricity markets, which will affect the effectiveness of climate and energy policies. Models used to simulate such policies must be responsive to pricing rules. We show how this can be done and simulate a tightening of climate and energy policies. We use a soft-coupled framework composed of a top-down dynamic computable general equilibrium model and a bottom-up dynamic electricity supply model. The first simulate...

  3. Transmission-constrained oligopoly in the Japanese electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Makoto

    2009-01-01

    We simulate the Japanese wholesale electricity market as a transmission-constrained Cournot market using a linear complementarity approach. First, we investigate the effects of upgrading the bottleneck transmission line between the eastern and western regions, focusing on the mitigation of transmission congestion. Although increasing the bottleneck capacity would lead to welfare gains, they might not be substantial particularly when transmission capacity costs are taken into account. Second, we examine the effects of splitting the largest electric power company, which is located in the eastern region, focusing on the mitigation of market power. Splitting the largest company into two companies would lead to a 25% reduction in the eastern price, and a 50% reduction in deadweight loss. The divestiture of the largest company would have a significant effect of mitigating market power in the Japanese electricity market. (author)

  4. William Wilde: Historian.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geary, L

    2016-05-01

    This essay attempts to assess William Wilde as a social historian. It examines some of his contributions to the discipline of history and looks particularly at 'The food of the Irish', which was published in the Dublin University Magazine in February 1854.

  5. How does market power affect the impact of large scale wind investment in 'energy only' wholesale electricity markets?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browne, Oliver; Poletti, Stephen; Young, David

    2015-01-01

    In the short run, it is well known that increasing wind penetration is likely to reduce spot market electricity prices due to the merit order effect. The long run effect is less clear because there will be a change in new capacity investment in response to the wind penetration. In this paper we examine the interaction between capacity investment, wind penetration and market power by first using a least-cost generation expansion model to simulate capacity investment with increasing amounts of wind generation, and then using a computer agent-based model to predict electricity prices in the presence of market power. We find the degree to which firms are able to exercise market power depends critically on the ratio of capacity to peak demand. For our preferred long run generation scenario we show market power increases for some periods as wind penetration increases however the merit order counteracts this with the results that prices overall remain flat. Returns to peakers increase significantly as wind penetration increases. The market power in turn leads to inefficient dispatch which is exacerbated with large amounts of wind generation. - Highlights: • Increasing investment in wind generation is analyzed using an agent based model. • In an energy only market, increased total capacity reduces market power. • Increasing wind penetration results in more market power in some periods. • Market power causes dispatch inefficiencies, which grow as wind capacity increases.

  6. A market systems analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle market considering frontal crash safety technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffenson, Steven; Frischknecht, Bart D; Papalambros, Panos Y

    2013-01-01

    Active safety features and adjustments to the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) consumer-information crash tests have the potential to decrease the number of serious traffic injuries each year, according to previous studies. However, literature suggests that risk reductions, particularly in the automotive market, are often accompanied by adjusted consumer risk tolerance, and so these potential safety benefits may not be fully realized due to changes in consumer purchasing or driving behavior. This article approaches safety in the new vehicle market, particularly in the Sport Utility Vehicle and Crossover Utility Vehicle segments, from a market systems perspective. Crash statistics and simulations are used to predict the effects of design and policy changes on occupant crash safety, and discrete choice experiments are conducted to estimate the values consumers place on vehicle attributes. These models are combined in a market simulation that forecasts how consumers respond to the available vehicle alternatives, resulting in predictions of the market share of each vehicle and how the change in fleet mixture influences societal outcomes including injuries, fuel consumption, and firm profits. The model is tested for a scenario where active safety features are implemented across the new vehicle fleet and a scenario where the U.S. frontal NCAP test speed is modified. While results exhibit evidence of consumer risk adjustment, they support adding active safety features and lowering the NCAP frontal test speed, as these changes are predicted to improve the welfare of both firms and society. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arango, Santiago; Larsen, Erik

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the 'cycle hypothesis' in electricity generation, which states that the introduction of deregulation in an electricity system might lead to sustained fluctuations of over- and under-capacity. The occurrence of cycles is one of the major threats for electricity markets as it affects the security of supply, and creates uncertainty in both the profitability of electricity companies and in consumer prices. We discuss the background for these cycles using analogies with other capital-intensive industries, along with evidence from the analysis of behavioral simulation models as well as from experimental electricity markets. Using data from the oldest deregulated markets we find support for the hypothesis in the case of the English and Chilean markets, based on an autocorrelation analysis. Evidence from the Nordpool market is more ambiguous, although we might be observing the first half of a cycle in generation capacity. Comparing a simulation of the English market performed in 1992 with the actual performance we can observe that the qualitative behavior of the model is consistent with the actual evolution. Finally, we discuss possible mechanisms for damping cycles in electricity generation, such as mothballing, capacity payments, and reliability markets. - Research highlights: → We explore the emergence of cycles in the electricity generation capacity after deregulation. → We discuss the reason for cycles in generation capacity and compare different theories. → Analysis of England and Chile data show strong indications that cycles have emerged.

  8. Russia at GHG Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golub, A.; Strukova, E.

    2004-01-01

    In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO2 emission, which constituted nearly 80% of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO2 emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO2 emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO2 equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO2 emission are critical to insure the Russian supply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of Russian CO2 emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway

  9. Simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, A.

    2007-01-01

    This article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs). These markets have been used in Europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind. Similar markets have been proposed in the United States of America (USA) where the certificates are called Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). The certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt-hour of renewable electricity generation. The companies may sell the certificates in a market, and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity. Proponents argue that this market-based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources. In the USA, these mandates are set by the states and are known as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). We simulate the price dynamics of a market designed to support an aggressive mandate for wind generation in the northwestern USA. The simulations show that the certificate price climbs rapidly to the cap in the early years after the market opens. Investors then react to these high prices with construction of new wind capacity. After a few years, wind generation meets, and then exceeds the requirement. We show that this pattern appears again and again when the simulations are repeated with wide variations in the estimates of behavioral parameters. We use the model to study the impact of different trading strategies by the wind companies and by the distribution companies. We also study the simulated market response if the USA adopts the carbon allowance market envisioned in The Climate Stewardship Act. The article concludes with recommendations for policy makers involved in TGC market design. [Author

  10. Simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Andrew; Vogstad, Klaus; Flynn, Hilary

    2007-01-01

    This article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs). These markets have been used in Europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind. Similar markets have been proposed in the United States of America (USA) where the certificates are called Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). The certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt-hour of renewable electricity generation. The companies may sell the certificates in a market, and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity. Proponents argue that this market-based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources. In the USA, these mandates are set by the states and are known as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). We simulate the price dynamics of a market designed to support an aggressive mandate for wind generation in the northwestern USA. The simulations show that the certificate price climbs rapidly to the cap in the early years after the market opens. Investors then react to these high prices with construction of new wind capacity. After a few years, wind generation meets, and then exceeds the requirement. We show that this pattern appears again and again when the simulations are repeated with wide variations in the estimates of behavioral parameters. We use the model to study the impact of different trading strategies by the wind companies and by the distribution companies. We also study the simulated market response if the USA adopts the carbon allowance market envisioned in The Climate Stewardship Act. The article concludes with recommendations for policy makers involved in TGC market design

  11. The Displacement Effect of Labour-Market Programs: Estimates from the MONASH Model

    OpenAIRE

    Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer

    2005-01-01

    A key question concerning labour-market programs is the extent to which they generate jobs for their target group at the expense of others. This effect is measured by displacement percentages. We describe a version of the MONASH model designed to quantify the effects of labour-market programs. Our simulation results suggests that: (1) labour-market programs can generate significant long-run increases in employment; (2) displacement percentages depend on how a labour-market program affects the...

  12. Support Vector Machines for decision support in electricity markets׳ strategic bidding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Sousa, Tiago M.; Praça, Isabel

    2015-01-01

    . The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated...... by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), originating promising results: an effective electricity market price forecast in a fast execution time. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL......׳ research group has developed a multi-agent system: Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System (ALBidS) that works as a decision support system for market players...

  13. Enabling Communications in Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Systems: Electricity Markets Ontology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel SANTOS

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Electricity markets worldwide are complex and dynamic environments with very particular characteristics, resulting from their restructuring and evolution into regional and continental scales, along with the constant changes brought by the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources. The rising complexity and unpredictability in electricity markets has increased the need for the intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. Several modelling tools directed to the study of restructured wholesale electricity markets have emerged. However, they have a common limitation: the lack of interoperability between the various systems to allow the exchange of information and knowledge, to test different market models and to allow market players from different systems to interact in common market environments. This paper proposes the Electricity Markets Ontology, which integrates the essential necessary concepts related with electricity markets, while enabling an easier cooperation and adequate communication between related systems. Additionally, it can be extended and complemented according to the needs of other simulators and real systems in this area

  14. Model of Nordic energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjelsvik, E.; Johnsen, T.; Mysen, H.T.

    1992-01-01

    Simulation results are given of the consumption of electricity and oil in Denmark, Norway and Sweden based on the demand section of a Nordic energy market model which is in the process of being developed in Oslo under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The model incorporates supply, and trade between countries so that it can be analyzed how trading can contribute to goals within energy and environmental policies and to cost effective activities aimed at reducing pollution. The article deals in some detail with the subject of how taxation on carbon dioxide emission can influence pollution abatement and with energy consumption development within individual sectors in individual Northern countries. The model of energy demand is described with emphasis on the individual sectors of industry, transport, service and private households. Simulation results giving the effects of energy consumption and increased taxation on fossil fuels are given. On this background the consequences of the adaption of power plants is discussed and a sketch is given of a Nordic electric power market incorporating trading. (AB) (15 refs.)

  15. Effect of External Economic-Field Cycle and Market Temperature on Stock-Price Hysteresis: Monte Carlo Simulation on the Ising Spin Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punya Jaroenjittichai, Atchara; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut

    2017-09-01

    In this work, the stock-price versus economic-field hysteresis was investigated. The Ising spin Hamiltonian was utilized as the level of ‘disagreement’ in describing investors’ behaviour. The Ising spin directions were referred to an investor’s intention to perform his action on trading his stock. The periodic economic variation was also considered via the external economic-field in the Ising model. The stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was performed on Ising spins, where the steady-state excess demand and supply as well as the stock-price were extracted via the magnetization. From the results, the economic-field parameters and market temperature were found to have significant effect on the dynamic magnetization and stock-price behaviour. Specifically, the hysteresis changes from asymmetric to symmetric loops with increasing market temperature and economic-field strength. However, the hysteresis changes from symmetric to asymmetric loops with increasing the economic-field frequency, when either temperature or economic-field strength is large enough, and returns to symmetric shape at very high frequencies. This suggests competitive effects among field and temperature factors on the hysteresis characteristic, implying multi-dimensional complicated non-trivial relationship among inputs-outputs. As is seen, the results reported (over extensive range) can be used as basis/guideline for further analysis/quantifying how economic-field and market-temperature affect the stock-price distribution on the course of economic cycle.

  16. Analysis of Powdery Mildew Resistance in Wild Melon MLO Mutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Hong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Wild species have a potential value in crop breeding. Explore MLO gene which related with powdery mildew natural resistance is very important for improving the quality of melon. Resistance to powdery mildew was examined in cultivar and wild species by leaf inoculation. The wild germplasms showed resistance to powdery mildew Race1. Cloning and sequence analysis of the CmMLO2 gene identified an 85 bp difference between the wild and cultivated species. The CmMLO2 gene was expressed in the wild germplasm after fluorescence-labeled Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. A positive transgenic plant showed successful invasion by powdery mildew Race1. These results suggested that the wild species might have failed to encode the MLO protein, thereby resulting in the MLO-negative regulation of powdery mildew, which in turn resulted in the broad-spectrum resistance of the wild species to powdery mildew.

  17. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  18. A market based active/reactive dispatch including transformer taps and reactor and capacitor banks using Simulated Annealing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomes, Mario Helder; Saraiva, Joao Tome

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes an optimization model to be used by System Operators in order to validate the economic schedules obtained by Market Operators together with the injections from Bilateral Contracts. These studies will be performed off-line in the day before operation and the developed model is based on adjustment bids submitted by generators and loads and it is used by System Operators if that is necessary to enforce technical or security constraints. This model corresponds to an enhancement of an approach described in a previous paper and it now includes discrete components as transformer taps and reactor and capacitor banks. The resulting mixed integer formulation is solved using Simulated Annealing, a well known metaheuristic specially suited for combinatorial problems. Once the Simulated Annealing converges and the values of the discrete variables are fixed, the resulting non-linear continuous problem is solved using Sequential Linear Programming to get the final solution. The developed model corresponds to an AC version, it includes constraints related with the capability diagram of synchronous generators and variables allowing the computation of the active power required to balance active losses. Finally, the paper includes a Case Study based on the IEEE 118 bus system to illustrate the results that it is possible to obtain and their interest. (author)

  19. [An overview of surveillance of avian influenza viruses in wild birds].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yun; Shi, Jing-Hong; Shu, Yue-Long

    2014-05-01

    Wild birds (mainly Anseriformes and Charadriiformes) are recognized as the natural reservoir of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The long-term surveillance of AIVs in wild birds has been conducted in North America and Europe since 1970s. More and more surveillance data revealed that all the HA and NA subtypes of AIVs were identified in the wild ducks, shorebirds, and gulls, and the AIVs circulating in wild birds were implicated in the outbreaks of AIVs in poultry and humans. Therefore, the AIVs in wild birds pose huge threat to poultry industry and human health. To gain a better understanding of the ecology and epidemiology of AIVs in wild birds, we summarize the transmission of AIVs between wild birds, poultry, and humans, the main results of surveillance of AIVs in wild birds worldwide and methods for surveillance, and the types of samples and detection methods for AIVs in wild birds, which would be vital for the effective control of avian influenza and response to possible influenza pandemic.

  20. Market review - Market values summary/August market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the August 1995 uranium market review. During this reporting period, there were three transactions in the long-term concentrates sector, no transactions in the UF6 market, and limited activity in the spot conversion market and the enrichment services market. Active supply rose, as did active demand. Prices were stable to slightly increasing

  1. Wild and domesticated mushroom consumption in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Crop Science Journal ... On the other hand, if nutrition analysis reveals different nutrition parameters for both types of mushrooms, 43.3% opted for cultivated mushroom, 42.2%, wild; 12.2% both; while 2.2% would eat ... Keywords: Consumption pattern, Lentinus squarrosulus, nutrition, perception, wild mushroom ...

  2. Characterization of intestinal bacteria in wild and domesticated adult black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanilada Rungrassamee

    Full Text Available The black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon is a marine crustacean of economic importance in the world market. To ensure sustainability of the shrimp industry, production capacity and disease outbreak prevention must be improved. Understanding healthy microbial balance inside the shrimp intestine can provide an initial step toward better farming practice and probiotic applications. In this study, we employed a barcode pyrosequencing analysis of V3-4 regions of 16S rRNA genes to examine intestinal bacteria communities in wild-caught and domesticated P. monodon broodstock. Shrimp faeces were removed from intestines prior to further analysis in attempt to identify mucosal bacterial population. Five phyla, Actinobacteria, Fusobacteria, Proteobacteria, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes, were found in all shrimp from both wild and domesticated environments. The operational taxonomic unit (OTU was assigned at 97% sequence identity, and our pyrosequencing results identified 18 OTUs commonly found in both groups. Sequences of the shared OTUs were similar to bacteria in three phyla, namely i Proteobacteria (Vibrio, Photobacterium, Novosphingobium, Pseudomonas, Sphingomonas and Undibacterium, ii Firmicutes (Fusibacter, and iii Bacteroidetes (Cloacibacterium. The shared bacterial members in P. monodon from two different habitats provide evidence that the internal environments within the host shrimp also exerts selective pressure on bacterial members. Intestinal bacterial profiles were compared using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE. The sequences from DGGE bands were similar to those of Vibrio and Photobacterium in all shrimp, consistent with pyrosequencing results. This work provides the first comprehensive report on bacterial populations in the intestine of adult black tiger shrimp and reveals some similar bacterial members between the intestine of wild-caught and domesticated shrimp.

  3. SIMULATION GAMING FOR MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKENNEY, JAMES L.

    THE PRESENT HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL MANAGEMENT SIMULATION GAME WAS DEVELOPED AS A TEACHING DEVICE FOR CLASSES OF 20 OR MORE STUDENTS GROUPED INTO FOUR- AND FIVE-MAN TEAMS CALLED "FIRMS." EACH FIRM COMPETES WITH OTHERS IN AN "INDUSTRY," AN ECONOMIC ABSTRACTION OF A CONSUMER GOODS MARKET PROGRAMED TO BE SIMULATED ON AN ELECTRONIC…

  4. Transactive Control and Coordination of Distributed Assets for Ancillary Services: Controls, Markets and Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subbarao, Krishnappa; Fuller, Jason C.; Kalsi, Karanjit; Lian, Jianming; Mayhorn, Ebony T.

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of this project is to develop a plausible transactive framework for DER participation in a regulation market. This document focuses on the methodology for creating a transactive-based regulation market, using one class of end-use devices as an example. The system contains two parts, one for acquiring resources at a longer timescale and a second for controlling the devices in a distributed manner at much shorter timescales. The first is based on a formal double-auction market where every five minutes each device bids the amount of resource it is able to provide and the minimum price that it would accept to provide that resource. The bid price is determined by the current state of the device and the willingness of the consumer to participate. The market system collects and orders the bids by price, and then determines a cleared price to meet the level of regulation needed. It broadcasts the cleared price to the devices, which results in contracting the services of the least cost resources. By contract, the devices that cleared the market are now engaged for the next five-minute market period. They are part of a distributed control system that allows them to respond at four-second intervals to a broadcasted regulation signal. The approach also limits the number of times devices can cycle between states (say on to off) in a given amount of time to protect the equipment life.

  5. The absence of wild game and fish species from the USDA National Nutrient Database for standard reference: addressing information gaps in wild caught foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidball, Moira M; Tidball, Keith G; Curtis, Paul

    2014-01-01

    We highlighted gaps in nutritional data for wild game meat and wild caught fish that have a regulated harvesting season in New York State, and examined the possible role that wild game and fish play in current trends towards consumption of local, healthy meat sources. This project is part of larger study that examines family food decision-making, and explores possibilities for leveraging the locavore movement in support of consumption of wild game and fish.

  6. Egalitarian despots: hierarchy steepness, reciprocity and the grooming-trade model in wild chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaburu, Stefano S K; Newton-Fisher, Nicholas E

    2015-01-01

    Biological market theory models the action of natural selection as a marketplace in which animals are viewed as traders with commodities to offer and exchange. Studies of female Old World monkeys have suggested that grooming might be employed as a commodity to be reciprocated or traded for alternative services, yet previous tests of this grooming-trade model in wild adult male chimpanzees have yielded mixed results. Here we provide the strongest test of the model to date for male chimpanzees: we use data drawn from two social groups (communities) of chimpanzees from different populations and give explicit consideration to variation in dominance hierarchy steepness, as such variation results in differing conditions for biological markets. First, analysis of data from published accounts of other chimpanzee communities, together with our own data, showed that hierarchy steepness varied considerably within and across communities and that the number of adult males in a community aged 20-30 years predicted hierarchy steepness. The two communities in which we tested predictions of the grooming-trade model lay at opposite extremes of this distribution. Second, in accord with the grooming-trade model, we found evidence that male chimpanzees trade grooming for agonistic support where hierarchies are steep (despotic) and consequent effective support is a rank-related commodity, but not where hierarchies are shallow (egalitarian). However, we also found that grooming was reciprocated regardless of hierarchy steepness. Our findings also hint at the possibility of agonistic competition, or at least exclusion, in relation to grooming opportunities compromising the free market envisioned by biological market theory. Our results build on previous findings across chimpanzee communities to emphasize the importance of reciprocal grooming exchanges among adult male chimpanzees, which can be understood in a biological markets framework if grooming by or with particular individuals is a

  7. Egalitarian despots: hierarchy steepness, reciprocity and the grooming-trade model in wild chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaburu, Stefano S. K.; Newton-Fisher, Nicholas E.

    2014-01-01

    Biological market theory models the action of natural selection as a marketplace in which animals are viewed as traders with commodities to offer and exchange. Studies of female Old World monkeys have suggested that grooming might be employed as a commodity to be reciprocated or traded for alternative services, yet previous tests of this grooming-trade model in wild adult male chimpanzees have yielded mixed results. Here we provide the strongest test of the model to date for male chimpanzees: we use data drawn from two social groups (communities) of chimpanzees from different populations and give explicit consideration to variation in dominance hierarchy steepness, as such variation results in differing conditions for biological markets. First, analysis of data from published accounts of other chimpanzee communities, together with our own data, showed that hierarchy steepness varied considerably within and across communities and that the number of adult males in a community aged 20–30 years predicted hierarchy steepness. The two communities in which we tested predictions of the grooming-trade model lay at opposite extremes of this distribution. Second, in accord with the grooming-trade model, we found evidence that male chimpanzees trade grooming for agonistic support where hierarchies are steep (despotic) and consequent effective support is a rank-related commodity, but not where hierarchies are shallow (egalitarian). However, we also found that grooming was reciprocated regardless of hierarchy steepness. Our findings also hint at the possibility of agonistic competition, or at least exclusion, in relation to grooming opportunities compromising the free market envisioned by biological market theory. Our results build on previous findings across chimpanzee communities to emphasize the importance of reciprocal grooming exchanges among adult male chimpanzees, which can be understood in a biological markets framework if grooming by or with particular individuals is

  8. Offer of secondary reserve with a pool of electric vehicles on the German market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jargstorf, Johannes; Wickert, Manuel

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the business case of offering secondary downward reserve for frequency control on the German market by a pool of electrical vehicles. Former benchmark studies promised high revenues especially for this case. The benefits could provide an incentive to customers to buy an electric vehicle. The business case is analyzed for the German market as a case study. Specific regulations for this market, real driving patterns and real market data are taken into account when calculating revenues. Secondary reserve is strictly regulated, requiring a very high level of availability. As a result, simulated revenues are lower than assumed. Simulation shows average revenues of less than 5€ per month and vehicle. As a major bottleneck for an offer of secondary reserve, fully charged batteries are identified. Additionally an issue is made of costs for communication and customer compensation. Based on the simulation results, it is argued that the market for secondary reserve should not be accessed with these small units. For electric vehicles, easier accessible markets with lower related costs should be considered instead. -- Highlights: •We analyze a business case of providing reserve power with electric vehicles. •We include legal regulations for providing reserve power in the calculation. •Reserve requirements lead to a significant drop in expected revenues. •Results show that vehicles are not suitable to offer reserve power

  9. Ed & Os : kahe Wilde näitemäng / Mati Unt

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Unt, Mati, 1944-2005

    1998-01-01

    Mati Undi näidend Eduard Vilde ja Oscar Wilde'i kohtumisest. Illustratsiooniks Tiiu Kirsipuu Tartusse Wilde Irish Pubi ette loodava skulptuurigrupi kavand. Autori märkus : Tekst on kirjutatud Kahe Wilde Pubi avamiseks ja koostatud Wilde'i ja Vilde tekstidest.

  10. Cost reduction potentials in the German market for balancing power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flinkerbusch, Kai; Heuterkes, Michael

    2010-01-01

    This article examines potential cost reductions in the market for balancing power by pooling all four German control areas. In a united control area both the procurement and the production of balancing power may be more efficient than in four separated control areas. Our data contain bids on energy procurement as well as balancing power flows in the period from December 2007 to November 2008. A reference scenario simulates the market results for secondary and tertiary balancing power. Subsequently, we simulate a united control area. We show that in the period under review the total costs of balancing power are reduced by 17%. (author)

  11. Distribution of Wild and Cultivated Grapes in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim H UZUN

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Turkey is one of main gene centers in the world for grapes. It is believed that cultivated grapes have their origins in Turkey and the surrounding countries. Vitis vinifera ssp sylvestris is the only wild grape species in this region. That is why Turkey has a very large amount of wild grapevine populations and grape cultivars which offer to grapevine breeders a valuable gene pool. Wild grapevines have significant characters for inducing the resistence to biotic and abiotic stress factors, such as resistance to lime, drought, pests and diseases. Turkey has over 1.600 local grape cultivars, among which the majority of them are conserved at the national grape collection vineyard in Tekirda?. They are mostly used as table grapes, dried grapes or for local consumptions. Wild grapes are distributed all over the country territory, mainly in the river basins and forests. Wild grape collection vineyards were established at some universities in Turkey. These grapevines will be screened for the resistance to biotic and abiotic stress factors.

  12. Ethnobotanical review of wild edible plants of Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Łuczaj

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an ethnobotanical review of wild edible plants gathered for consumption from the 19th century to the present day, within the present borders of Slovakia. Twenty-four sources (mainly ethnographic documenting the culinary use of wild plants were analysed. The use of 106 species (over 3% of the Slovak flora has been recorded. Nowadays most of them are no longer used, or used rarely, apart from a few species of wild fruits. The most frequently used plants include the fruits of Rubus idaeus, Fragaria spp., Rubus subgenus Rubus, Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Fagus sylvatica, Corylus avellana, Prunus spinosa, Pyrus spp., Malus spp., Crataegus spp. and the leaves of Urtica dioica, Rumex acetosa, Chenopodiaceae species, Cardamine amara, Glechoma spp., Taraxacum spp. and Oxalis acetosella. The most commonly used wild food taxa are nearly identical to those used in Poland, and the same negative association of wild vegetables with famine exists in Slovakia, resulting in their near complete disappearance from the present-day diet.

  13. Vitamin D status of wild Ricord's iguanas (Cyclura ricordii) and captive and wild rhinoceros iguanas (Cyclura cornuta cornuta) in the Dominican Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramer, Jan C; Maria, Roberto; Reichard, Tim; Tolson, Peter J; Chen, Tai C; Holick, Michael F

    2005-06-01

    Calcidiol (25-hydroxyvitamin D) values are reported for 22 wild Ricord's iguanas (Cyclura ricordii) and seven wild rhinoceros iguanas (Cyclura cornuta cornuta). Calcitriol (1,25-hydroxyvitamin D) values are reported for 12 wild Ricord's iguanas and seven wild rhinoceros iguanas. These animals were captured as part of a larger health assessment study being conducted on Ricord's iguanas in Isla Cabritos National Park, Dominican Republic. A total of 13 captive rhinoceros iguanas held outdoors at Parque Zoológico Nacional were also sampled for comparison. Mean concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were 554 nmol/L (222 ng/ml) with a range of 250-1,118 nmol/L (100-448 ng/ml) for wild Ricord's iguanas, 332 nmol/L (133 ng/ml) with a range of 260-369 nmol/L (104-148 ng/ml) for wild rhinoceros iguanas, and 317 nmol/L (127 ng/ml) with a range of 220-519 nmol/L (88-208 ng/ml) for captive rhinoceros iguanas. On the basis of these results, serum concentrations of at least 325 nmol/L (130 ng/ml) for 25-hydroxyvitamin D should be considered normal for healthy Ricord's and rhinoceros iguanas.

  14. A new index for electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

    2010-01-01

    Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator.

  15. [Surveys on resources and varieties on Chinese markets of crude drug Xixin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yaoli; Yu, Jie; Cao, Chen; Xie, Baibo; Zhang, Cuiying; Liu, Zhong; Shang, Mingying; Wang, Xuan; Cai, Shaoqing

    2010-12-01

    Many species of the genus Asarum plants are used as Chinese traditional or folk medicines, in Chinese which are known as "Xixin" (Asari Radix et Rhizoma) , "Bei-Xixin" , "Hua-Xixin" and "Nan-Xixin" , etc. In order to get a clear picture of resources distribution and varieties on Chinese markets of the crude drug Xixin and provide scientific basis for their resource conservation and sustainable use, during recent years we conducted field investigations and market researches many times. The results showed that the resources of both official Xixins and non-official Xixins were decreased because of the ecological environment damage and over-digging, especially species whose population size was small. Bei-Xixin derived from A. heterotropoides var. mandshuricum was the most species on the Chinese markets except for a few areas of China. Hua-Xixin derived from A. sieboldii and non-official Xixins were mainly used in their producing areas. Cultivation of Hua-Xixin should be greatly developed, and wild resources of non-official species must be preserved strictly.

  16. Application of commercial enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA for the detection of antibodies for foot-and-mouth disease virus in wild boar and red deer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terzić Svjetlana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For detecting antibodies towards foot and mouth (FMD virus in sera collected from red deer hinds (Cervus elaphus and wild boars (Sus scrofa, three commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA were used. Two ELISA kits (PrioCHECK FMDV NS and CHEKIT FMD-3ABC were used for the detection of antibodies towards non-structural proteins of FMD virus and one assay was based on the detection of antibodies for serotype O (PrioCHECK FMDV type O. All of the sera tested in our study were negative for antibodies against FMD virus. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of commercially available ELISA kits given for marketing authorization in Croatia in testing the prevalence of FMD antibodies in wild boar and red deer populations. Since the producers of ELISA kits used in our study did not declare wild animals as a target species, we hypothesised that the same kits could be used for serological diagnosis of FMD in red deer and wild boars. Our study confirmed that the kits used are acceptable for detecting antibodies in both species tested, however, the investigation highlighted the problem of validating the kits due to the absence of available positive sera originating from red deer, as well as other susceptible species, especially artiodactyls.

  17. Serosurveillance of wild deer and wild boar after the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in the Netherlands in 2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Dekker, A.; Dekkers, L.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Blood samples from 140 wild deer and 208 wild boar shot in the aftermath of the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in the Netherlands in 2001 were examined for antibodies to foot-and-mouth disease virus. They were all negative

  18. Tax policy, housing and the labour market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Svend Erik Hougaard; Nielsen, Søren Bo; Pedersen, Lars Haagen

    1996-01-01

    This paper develops an intertemporal simulation model designed to analyse tax policies in a small open economy. Within a finite horizon, overlapping generations framework, we introduce imperfect competition in the labour market, consumption and construction of durables in the form of housing units...

  19. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  20. Wild translation surfaces and infinite genus

    OpenAIRE

    Randecker, Anja

    2014-01-01

    The Gauss-Bonnet formula for classical translation surfaces relates the cone angle of the singularities (geometry) to the genus of the surface (topology). When considering more general translation surfaces, we observe so-called wild singularities for which the notion of cone angle is not applicable any more. In this article, we study whether there still exist relations between the geometry and the topology for translation surfaces with wild singularities. By considering short saddle connectio...

  1. Self-Organization, Resilience and Robustness of Complex Systems Through an Application to Financial Market from an Agent-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Iris; Cotsaftis, Michel; Bertelle, Cyrille

    This paper introduces the implementation of a computational agent-based financial market model in which the system is described on both microscopic and macroscopic levels. This artificial financial market model is used to study the system response when a shock occurs. Indeed, when a market experiences perturbations, financial systems behavior can exhibit two different properties: resilience and robustness. Through simulations and different scenarios of market shocks, these system properties are studied. The results notably show that the emergence of collective herding behavior when market shock occurs leads to a temporary disruption of the system self-organization. Numerical simulations highlight that the market can absorb strong mono-shocks but can also be led to rupture by low but repeated perturbations.

  2. WILDE,OSCAR SKIN-DISEASE - ALLERGIC CONTACT-DERMATITIS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    NATER, JP

    During the last years of his life, Oscar Wilde (1856-1900) suffered from a suppurating otitis media as well as from an unidentified skin disease. The eruption was localized to his face, arms, chest and back and itched severely. A new theory is suggested, based on the fact that Wilde almost certainly

  3. Sampling wild species to conserve genetic diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampling seed from natural populations of crop wild relatives requires choice of the locations to sample from and the amount of seed to sample. While this may seem like a simple choice, in fact careful planning of a collector’s sampling strategy is needed to ensure that a crop wild collection will ...

  4. A statistical physics perspective on criticality in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believed to be critical by analogy to physical systems, but little statistically founded evidence has been given. Through a data-based methodology and comparison to simulations inspired by the statistical physics of complex systems, we show that the Dow Jones and index sets are not rigorously critical. However, financial systems are closer to criticality in the crash neighborhood. (paper)

  5. Design and analysis of electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sioshansi, Ramteen Mehr

    Restructured competitive electricity markets rely on designing market-based mechanisms which can efficiently coordinate the power system and minimize the exercise of market power. This dissertation is a series of essays which develop and analyze models of restructured electricity markets. Chapter 2 studies the incentive properties of a co-optimized market for energy and reserves that pays reserved generators their implied opportunity cost---which is the difference between their stated energy cost and the market-clearing price for energy. By analyzing the market as a competitive direct revelation mechanism we examine the properties of efficient equilibria and demonstrate that generators have incentives to shade their stated costs below actual costs. We further demonstrate that the expected energy payments of our mechanism is less than that in a disjoint market for energy only. Chapter 3 is an empirical validation of a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. By comparing theoretically optimal supply functions and actual generation offers into the Texas spot balancing market, we show the SFE to fit the actual behavior of the largest generators in market. This not only serves to validate the model, but also demonstrates the extent to which firms exercise market power. Chapters 4 and 5 examine equity, incentive, and efficiency issues in the design of non-convex commitment auctions. We demonstrate that different near-optimal solutions to a central unit commitment problem which have similar-sized optimality gaps will generally yield vastly different energy prices and payoffs to individual generators. Although solving the mixed integer program to optimality will overcome such issues, we show that this relies on achieving optimality of the commitment---which may not be tractable for large-scale problems within the allotted timeframe. We then simulate and compare a competitive benchmark for a market with centralized and self commitment in order to bound the efficiency

  6. Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

    2015-01-01

    In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems

  7. Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

    2015-04-01

    In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

  8. Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun [School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Fang, Wen, E-mail: fangwen@bjtu.edu.cn [School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China)

    2015-04-15

    In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

  9. Demand response in a market environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Emil Mahler

    This thesis addresses the design, deployment and benefits of demand response in a market environment. Demand response is consumption that can be controlled by an external stimulus in the power system. Flexible consumption is a useful tool for absorbing volatile power from renewable sources like...... this simulation, real power system data from the Danish island of Bornholm is introduced and methods to quantify an aggregated load is developed. These methods can be used for real-time operation and to support investment decisions. More specifically, they can be used to forecast the response to electricity...... pricing and to classify different types of customers. The proposed models are then embedded into new fiveminute electricity markets for system balancing and local congestion management. New market tools for exploiting and maintaining a degree of control over demand are developed, and the value of DR using...

  10. Towards electricity markets accommodating uncertain offers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    formulation of an electricity market, based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) reduces the impact of poor estimates for both the stochastic producers and the system operator. We introduce a simulation setting which first demonstrates that impact and then proceed to illustrate the main features......The use of renewable energy sources of energy and in particular wind and solar has been on the rise over the last decades with plans to increase it even more. Such developments introduce significant challenges in existing power systems and can result in high electricity prices and costly...... infrastructure investments. In this paper we propose a new electricity market mechanism whereby the uncertain and dynamic nature of wind power and other stochastic sources is embedded in the market mechanism itself, by modelling producers’ bids as probabilistic estimates. An extension on the bilevel programming...

  11. WILD PIGS: BIOLOGY, DAMAGE, CONTROL TECHINQUES AND MANAGEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayer, John; Brisbin, I. Lehr

    2009-12-31

    The existence of problems with wild pigs (Sus scrofa) is nothing new to the Western Hemisphere. Damage by these introduced animals was reported as far back as 1505 by the early Spanish colonies in the Caribbean, where wild pigs were killing the colonists cattle. Droves of these animals also ravaged cultivated crops of maize and sugarcane on islands in the West Indies during this same time period. These wild pigs reportedly were very aggressive and often attacked Spanish soldiers hunting rebellious Indians or escaped slaves on these islands, especially when these animals were cornered. The documentation of such impacts by introduced populations of this species in the United States has subsequently increased in recent years, and continued up through the present (Towne and Wentworth. 1950, Wood and Barrett 1979, Mayer and Brisbin 1991, Dickson et al. 2001). In spite of a fairly constant history in this country since the early 1900s, wild pigs have had a dramatic recent increase in both distribution and numbers in the United States. Between 1989 and 2009, the number of states reporting the presence of introduced wild pigs went from 19 up to as many as 44. This increase, in part natural, but largely manmade, has caused an increased workload and cost for land and resource managers in areas where these new populations are found. This is the direct result of the damage that these introduced animals do. The cost of both these impacts and control efforts has been estimated to exceed a billion dollars annually (Pimentel 2007). The complexity of this problem has been further complicated by the widespread appeal and economic potential of these animals as a big game species (Tisdell 1982, Degner 1989). Wild pigs are a controversial problem that is not going away and will likely only get worse with time. Not only do they cause damage, but wild pigs are also survivors. They reproduce at a rate faster than any other mammal of comparable size, native or introduced; they can eat just

  12. Quantifying the economic contribution of wild food harvests to rural livelihoods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hickey, Gordon M.; Pouliot, Mariéve; Smith-Hall, Carsten

    2016-01-01

    policies. We used household income data from 7975 households in 24 developing countries across three continents collected by the Poverty Environment Network (PEN). We found 77% of households to be engaged in wild food collection from forest and non-forest environments even though the share of wild food...... regional variation in determinants and the direction of significant relationships indicate there is no one-size-fits-all approach to integrating wild foods into food and forest policies. However, our results reveal potential to increase household food security by integrating wild foods into national food......This paper empirically quantifies and analyses (i) the economic contribution of wild foods to rural households, (ii) the household socio-economic, demographic, and geographical correlates of wild food income, and (iii) how wild foods can be better incorporated into integrative food security...

  13. Market Development of Video Games : Video game markets and marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Pu, Jun

    2010-01-01

    This diploma work focus on analysing the markets and marketing of video game industry. After the research of this study, I found out that console game markets are growing dramatically in the recent years. On the other hand, PC game markets (excluding online game markets) are growing slowly due to the problem of illegal copies. So my study will then focus on the development of console game markets and marketing. A new concept called Three Parties is introduced in chapter 5 to help ...

  14. Marketing is Dead! Long Live Marketing!

    OpenAIRE

    Marjanova Jovanov, Tamara

    2016-01-01

    The contents of the lectures included: Why marketing? Citizen, Consumer, Customer (Behavior) Who is the Father of Marketing? Some Antecedents of Marketing When Did Marketing Start? The Contributors of Marketing Where Did Marketing Start? Job Positions in Today’s Marketing Organization The Role of the Chief Marketing Officer Four Different CEO Views of Marketing Reality – Truth – Challenge (Why Can’t We Make It?) The Strong and Steady Progress of Marketi...

  15. Agent-based model of intermittent renewables : Simulating emerging changes in energy markets in transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Viebahn, P.; Richstein, J.C.; Lechtenböhmer, S.; Nebel, A.

    2012-01-01

    The energy transition is taking shape in the German and, to a lesser extent also its neighbouring electricity markets. We have proposed adaptations to an existing model to represent the increasing shares of intermittent renewables, that may alter the structure of the market and the viability of

  16. Natural outbreak of Streptococcus agalactiae (GBS) infection in wild giant Queensland grouper, Epinephelus lanceolatus (Bloch), and other wild fish in northern Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowater, R O; Forbes-Faulkner, J; Anderson, I G; Condon, K; Robinson, B; Kong, F; Gilbert, G L; Reynolds, A; Hyland, S; McPherson, G; Brien, J O'; Blyde, D

    2012-03-01

    Ninety-three giant Queensland grouper, Epinephelus lanceolatus (Bloch), were found dead in Queensland, Australia, from 2007 to 2011. Most dead fish occurred in northern Queensland, with a peak of mortalities in Cairns in June 2008. In 2009, sick wild fish including giant sea catfish, Arius thalassinus (Rüppell), and javelin grunter, Pomadasys kaakan (Cuvier), also occurred in Cairns. In 2009 and 2010, two disease epizootics involving wild stingrays occurred at Sea World marine aquarium. Necropsy, histopathology, bacteriology and PCR determined that the cause of deaths of 12 giant Queensland grouper, three wild fish, six estuary rays, Dasyatis fluviorum (Ogilby), one mangrove whipray, Himantura granulata (Macleay), and one eastern shovelnose ray, Aptychotrema rostrata (Shaw), was Streptococcus agalactiae septicaemia. Biochemical testing of 34 S. agalactiae isolates from giant Queensland grouper, wild fish and stingrays showed all had identical biochemical profiles. The 16S rRNA gene sequences of isolates confirmed all isolates were S. agalactiae; genotyping of selected S. agalactiae isolates showed the isolates from giant Queensland grouper were serotype Ib, whereas isolates from wild fish and stingrays closely resembled serotype II. This is the first report of S. agalactiae from wild giant Queensland grouper and other wild tropical fish and stingray species in Queensland, Australia. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and State of Queensland.

  17. Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined using linear complementarity model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung, Ching-Pin; Tseng, Tze-Chi; Huang, An-Lei; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Hu, Ming-Che

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Impact of climate change on average temperature is estimated. ► Temperature elasticity of demand is measured. ► Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined. -- Abstract: The increase in the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere causes significant changes in climate patterns. In turn, this climate change affects the environment, ecology, and human behavior. The emission of greenhouse gases from the power industry has been analyzed in many studies. However, the impact of climate change on the electricity market has received less attention. Hence, the purpose of this research is to determine the impact of climate change on the electricity market, and a case study involving the Taiwanese power market is conducted. First, the impact of climate change on temperature is estimated. Next, because electricity demand can be expressed as a function of temperature, the temperature elasticity of demand is measured. Then, a linear complementarity model is formulated to simulate the Taiwanese power market and climate change scenarios are discussed. Therefore, this paper establishes a simulation framework for calculating the impact of climate change on electricity demand change. In addition, the impact of climate change on the Taiwanese market is examined and presented.

  18. Wild bees enhance honey bees’ pollination of hybrid sunflower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenleaf, Sarah S.; Kremen, Claire

    2006-01-01

    Pollinators are required for producing 15–30% of the human food supply, and farmers rely on managed honey bees throughout the world to provide these services. Yet honey bees are not always the most efficient pollinators of all crops and are declining in various parts of the world. Crop pollination shortages are becoming increasingly common. We found that behavioral interactions between wild and honey bees increase the pollination efficiency of honey bees on hybrid sunflower up to 5-fold, effectively doubling honey bee pollination services on the average field. These indirect contributions caused by interspecific interactions between wild and honey bees were more than five times more important than the contributions wild bees make to sunflower pollination directly. Both proximity to natural habitat and crop planting practices were significantly correlated with pollination services provided directly and indirectly by wild bees. Our results suggest that conserving wild habitat at the landscape scale and altering selected farm management techniques could increase hybrid sunflower production. These findings also demonstrate the economic importance of interspecific interactions for ecosystem services and suggest that protecting wild bee populations can help buffer the human food supply from honey bee shortages. PMID:16940358

  19. Wild bees enhance honey bees' pollination of hybrid sunflower.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenleaf, Sarah S; Kremen, Claire

    2006-09-12

    Pollinators are required for producing 15-30% of the human food supply, and farmers rely on managed honey bees throughout the world to provide these services. Yet honey bees are not always the most efficient pollinators of all crops and are declining in various parts of the world. Crop pollination shortages are becoming increasingly common. We found that behavioral interactions between wild and honey bees increase the pollination efficiency of honey bees on hybrid sunflower up to 5-fold, effectively doubling honey bee pollination services on the average field. These indirect contributions caused by interspecific interactions between wild and honey bees were more than five times more important than the contributions wild bees make to sunflower pollination directly. Both proximity to natural habitat and crop planting practices were significantly correlated with pollination services provided directly and indirectly by wild bees. Our results suggest that conserving wild habitat at the landscape scale and altering selected farm management techniques could increase hybrid sunflower production. These findings also demonstrate the economic importance of interspecific interactions for ecosystem services and suggest that protecting wild bee populations can help buffer the human food supply from honey bee shortages.

  20. Five Basic Microcomputer Applications for Marketing Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Richard F.

    The microcomputer has five basic applications in marketing education--a remedial/tutorial application, instructional purposes, simulation, the project data base, and classroom management. Examples of word processing applications of a microcomputer are updating annual training plans and producing letters to advisory committee members, parents, and…

  1. Low genetic diversity of the endangered Indian wild ass Equus ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    DEVENDRA KHAIRE

    (Equus hemionus khur) belongs to an endangered wild species/subspecies of wild ... species of the Asiatic wild asses, E. hemionus and E. kiang, have been described on .... 57.9. Tseng et al. (2010). 5 -TCA CCC ACT AAA TCT CAA ATC C-3.

  2. Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driscoll, Áine; Lyons, Seán; Mariuzzo, Franco; Tol, Richard S.J.

    2013-01-01

    We have modelled the market for new cars in Ireland with the aim of quantifying the values placed on a range of observable car characteristics. Mid-sized petrol cars with a manual transmission sell best. Price and perhaps fuel cost are negatively associated with sales, and acceleration and perhaps range are positively associated. Hybrid cars are popular. The values of car characteristics are then used to simulate the likely market shares of three new electric vehicles. Electric vehicles tend to be more expensive even after tax breaks and subsidies are applied, but we assume their market shares would benefit from an “environmental” premium similar to those of hybrid cars. The “environmental” premium and the level of subsidies would need to be raised to incredible levels to reach the government target of 10% market penetration of all-electric vehicles. -- Highlights: •Market values placed on a range of observable car characteristics are quantified. •We simulate market shares of electrical vehicles from values of car characteristics. •We assume electric vehicles will benefit from an “environmental” premium. •Large premium not enough to reach government targets for market penetration. •Very high subsidies required to reach government targets for market penetration

  3. [Discussion on releasing price of Chinese patent medicine to market economy to achieve sustainable development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Xingchao; Huang, Luqi; Jiang, Erguo; Zhou, Yonghong; Xu, Yanfeng; Zheng, Shuhua; Ning, Xiaoling; Liu, Hongwei; Chen, Lin

    2012-02-01

    To analyze costs of the traditional Chinese medicine industry focusing on production costs. Data of 50 planted Chinese herbal medicines and 50 wild Chinese herbal medicines were summarized and analyzed to see the changes of price of Chinese herbal medicines. The derivative problems of limited price were analyzed by crude drug, quality of Chinese medicine and sustainable utilization of resource. The price of Chinese medicine shall be adapted to sustainable development of market economy.

  4. Genetic Diversity of Wild Rice Species in Yunnan Province of China

    OpenAIRE

    Zai-quan CHENG; Fu-you YING; Ding-qing LI; Teng-qiong YU; Jian FU; Hui-jun YAN; Qiao-fang ZHONG; Dun-yu ZHANG; Wei-jiao LI; Xing-qi HUANG

    2012-01-01

    Yunnan Province of China is one of the important centers for origin and evolution of cultivated rice worldwide. Wild rice is the ancestor of the cultivated rice. Many elite traits of wild rice have widened the genetic basis in cultivated rice. However, many populations of wild rice species have disappeared in the past few years. Therefore, the current status of wild rice resources should be updated and the genetic diversity of wild rice species should be examined for further germplasm preserv...

  5. Hybrids between cultivated and wild carrots in natural populations in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnussen, L.S.; Hauser, Thure Pavlo

    2007-01-01

    Many cultivated plant species are able to hybridize with related wild plants. However, it is not clear whether their hybrids are able to survive and reproduce outside managed fields, and if cultivar genes introgress into wild populations. In areas where wild carrots co-occur with carrot root......-crops, pollen and seeds may flow from two different sources in the fields to the surrounding wild populations: from pure cultivar plants that occasionally flower, and from flowering 'bolters' that originate from hybridizations between wild (male) and cultivated carrots (female) in seed production fields...... by AFLP. Four hybrids were identified among the 71 plants analysed, and these were most likely F(2) or backcross individuals, sired by pollen from hybrid bolters. Wild populations close to fields were genetically somewhat more similar to cultivars than wild populations far from fields, suggesting...

  6. The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-11-06

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.

  7. Wild and Scenic Rivers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This map layer portrays the linear federally-owned land features (i.e., national parkways, wild and scenic rivers, etc.) of the United States, Puerto Rico, and the...

  8. A study of market efficiency in the stock market, forex market and bullion market in India

    OpenAIRE

    Sarker, Debnarayan; Ghosh, Bikash Kumar

    2007-01-01

    This study suggests that, run test, which are based on signs of indices / rates, do not reject efficient market hypothesis in the case of all the three markets, whereas VR tests, which capture the variation in permanent component of the series as a ratio to the total variation, reject the efficient market hypothesis in the case of the gold markets. Efficient market hypothesis in the case of Stock markets, Forex markets and Silver markets cannot be rejected based on VR tests. Since VR tests a...

  9. Novel indexes based on network structure to indicate financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Tao; Peng, Qinke; Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Jing

    2016-02-01

    There have been various achievements to understand and to analyze the financial market by complex network model. However, current studies analyze the financial network model but seldom present quantified indexes to indicate or forecast the price action of market. In this paper, the stock market is modeled as a dynamic network, in which the vertices refer to listed companies and edges refer to their rank-based correlation based on price series. Characteristics of the network are analyzed and then novel indexes are introduced into market analysis, which are calculated from maximum and fully-connected subnets. The indexes are compared with existing ones and the results confirm that our indexes perform better to indicate the daily trend of market composite index in advance. Via investment simulation, the performance of our indexes is analyzed in detail. The results indicate that the dynamic complex network model could not only serve as a structural description of the financial market, but also work to predict the market and guide investment by indexes.

  10. Gold-Stock Market Relationship: Emerging Markets versus Developed Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Seifoddini

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We perform a comparative study on the gold-stock market relationship in U.S. stock market as a developed market and in Iran stock market as an emerging market. By considering appropriate variables for emerging markets and by providing a more proper methodology, we improve earlier studies. According to our findings, the relationship between stock market returns and gold price returns does not follow any specific regimes and that this relationship changes in short and long term returns. It is necessary to mention that in the present research, we did not consider this relationship in major structural changes in the economies and instead considered usual economic circumstances that investors are regularly faced with in their investment decisions.

  11. Modeling of phosphorus fluxes produced by wild fires at watershed scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyjasik, M.; Hernandez, M.; Shaw, N.; Baker, M.; Fowles, M. T.; Cisney, T. A.; Jex, A. P.; Moisen, G.

    2017-12-01

    River runoff is one of the controlling processes in the terrestrial phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus is often a limiting factor in fresh water. One of the factors that has not been studied and modeled in detail is phosporus flux produced from forest wild fires. Phosphate released by weathering is quickly absorbed in soils. Forest wild fires expose barren soils to intensive erosion, thus releasing relatively large fluxes of phosphorus. Measurements from three control burn sites were used to correlate erosion with phosphorus fluxes. These results were used to model phosphorus fluxes from burned watersheds during a five year long period after fires occurred. Erosion in our model is simulated using a combination of two models: the WEPP (USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project) and the GeoWEPP (GIS-based Water Erosion Prediction Project). Erosion produced from forest disturbances is predicted for any watershed using hydrologic, soil, and meteorological data unique to the individual watersheds or individual slopes. The erosion results are modified for different textural soil classes and slope angles to model fluxes of phosphorus. The results of these models are calibrated using measured concentrations of phosphorus for three watersheds located in the Interior Western United States. The results will help the United States Forest Service manage phosporus fluxes in national forests.

  12. Microbiological quality of raw and processed wild and cultured edible snails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlapani, Foteini F; Neofitou, Christos; Boziaris, Ioannis S

    2014-03-15

    An increasing interest in snail farming in Greece and other European countries has been observed. Despite the fact that edible snails have been involved with problems of Salmonella spp. contamination, there are to our knowledge only limited studies regarding microbiological safety and hygiene of such products. Enumeration of microbial populations and presence/absence of Salmonella spp. in snail meat and intestines of wild Cornu aspersum, Helix lucorum and cultured Cornu aspersum snails from indoor/outdoor type farms was conducted. Furthermore, snail-processing steps were simulated in the laboratory and the population reduction in snail meat was determined. Microbial populations were higher in intestines than snail meat in almost all cases. Escherichia coli/coliforms and Enterococcus spp. populations were lower in the intestines and snail meat of cultured C. aspersum. Salmonella spp. were detected in the intestines and snail meat of wild snails only. The high levels of bacterial populations were considerably reduced after the appropriate processing. The lower populations of E. coli/coliforms, Enterococcus spp. and especially the absence of Salmonella spp. in cultured snails show that the controlled conditions decrease the possibility of pathogen presence and contribute to food safety and public health. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  13. Spatial distribution and risk factors of Brucellosis in Iberian wild ungulates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de la Fuente José

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of wildlife as a brucellosis reservoir for humans and domestic livestock remains to be properly established. The aim of this work was to determine the aetiology, apparent prevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors for brucellosis transmission in several Iberian wild ungulates. Methods A multi-species indirect immunosorbent assay (iELISA using Brucella S-LPS antigen was developed. In several regions having brucellosis in livestock, individual serum samples were taken between 1999 and 2009 from 2,579 wild bovids, 6,448 wild cervids and4,454 Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa, and tested to assess brucellosis apparent prevalence. Strains isolated from wild boar were characterized to identify the presence of markers shared with the strains isolated from domestic pigs. Results Mean apparent prevalence below 0.5% was identified in chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica, Iberian wild goat (Capra pyrenaica, and red deer (Cervus elaphus. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus, fallow deer (Dama dama, mouflon (Ovis aries and Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia tested were seronegative. Only one red deer and one Iberian wild goat resulted positive in culture, isolating B. abortus biovar 1 and B. melitensis biovar 1, respectively. Apparent prevalence in wild boar ranged from 25% to 46% in the different regions studied, with the highest figures detected in South-Central Spain. The probability of wild boar being positive in the iELISA was also affected by age, age-by-sex interaction, sampling month, and the density of outdoor domestic pigs. A total of 104 bacterial isolates were obtained from wild boar, being all identified as B. suis biovar 2. DNA polymorphisms were similar to those found in domestic pigs. Conclusions In conclusion, brucellosis in wild boar is widespread in the Iberian Peninsula, thus representing an important threat for domestic pigs. By contrast, wild ruminants were not identified as a significant brucellosis reservoir for

  14. Reliability constrained generation expansion planning with consideration of wind farms uncertainties in deregulated electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemmati, Reza; Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah; Khodabakhshian, Amin

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Generation expansion planning is presented in deregulated electricity market. • Wind farm uncertainty is modeled in the problem. • The profit of each GENCO is maximized and also the safe operation of system is satisfied. • Salve sector is managed as an optimization programming and solved by using PSO technique. • Master sector is considered in pool market and Cournot model is used to simulate it. - Abstract: This paper addresses reliability constrained generation expansion planning (GEP) in the presence of wind farm uncertainty in deregulated electricity market. The proposed GEP aims at maximizing the expected profit of all generation companies (GENCOs), while considering security and reliability constraints such as reserve margin and loss of load expectation (LOLE). Wind farm uncertainty is also considered in the planning and GENCOs denote their planning in the presence of wind farm uncertainty. The uncertainty is modeled by probability distribution function (PDF) and Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to insert uncertainty into the problem. The proposed GEP is a constrained, nonlinear, mixed-integer optimization programming and solved by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. In this paper, Electricity market structure is modeled as a pool market. Simulation results verify the effectiveness and validity of the proposed planning for maximizing GENCOs profit in the presence of wind farms uncertainties in electricity market

  15. Market values summary/April market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the April 1995 uranium market summary. Overall market activity during this period was low, with five deals in the concentrates market, two deals in the long-term natural uranium market, and three deals in the spot enrichment market. There were no spot trades in the UF6 or conversion market. The restricted and unrestricted exchange values were $11.60 and $7.35 respectively. The restricted and unrestricted UF6 values were $36.00 and $25.50, and the restricted and unrestricted transaction values were $10.30 and $7.25. Active uranium supply rose, and active demand fell

  16. Hybridization between crops and wild relatives: the contribution of cultivated lettuce to the vigour of crop–wild hybrids under drought, salinity and nutrient deficiency conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Uwimana, Brigitte; Smulders, Marinus J.M.; Hooftman, Danny A.P.; Hartman, Yorike; van Tienderen, Peter H.; Jansen, Johannes; McHale, Leah K.; Michelmore, Richard W.; van de Wiel , Clemens C.M.; Visser , Richard G.F.

    2012-01-01

    With the development of transgenic crop varieties, crop–wild hybridization has received considerable consideration with regard to the potential of transgenes to be transferred to wild species. Although many studies have shown that crops can hybridize with their wild relatives and that the resulting hybrids may show improved fitness over the wild parents, little is still known on the genetic contribution of the crop parent to the performance of the hybrids. In this study, we investigated the v...

  17. wild and domesticated mushroom consumption in nigeria abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    of awareness, consumption history, wild or ... 15.6% were students and 11.1% business ... 1.1. N/A. 5. 5.6. NA = Not applicable mushrooms for over 10 years; whereas 13.3% ... Consumption history of wild and cultivated mushrooms in Nigeria.

  18. a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.

    As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.

  19. Waste to energy plant operation under the influence of market and legislation conditioned changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomic, Tihomir; Dominkovic, Dominik Franjo; Pfeifer, Antun

    2017-01-01

    , waste-to-energy plants need to be adapted to market operation. This influence is tracked by the gate-fee volatility. The operation of the waste-to-energy plant on electricity markets is simulated by using EnergyPLAN and heat market is simulated in Matlab, based on hourly marginal costs. The results have......In this paper, gate-fee changes of the waste-to-energy plants are investigated in the conditions set by European Union legislation and by the introduction of the new heat market. Waste management and sustainable energy supply are core issues of sustainable development of regions, especially urban...... areas. These two energy flows logically come together in the combined heat and power facility by waste incineration. However, the implementation of new legislation influences quantity and quality of municipal waste and operation of waste-to-energy systems. Once the legislation requirements are met...

  20. Plant Fitness Assessment for Wild Relatives of Insect Resistant Bt-Crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Letourneau

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available When field tests of transgenic plants are precluded by practical containment concerns, manipulative experiments can detect potential consequences of crop-wild gene flow. Using topical sprays of bacterial Bacillus thuringiensis larvicide (Bt and larval additions, we measured fitness effects of reduced herbivory on Brassica rapa (wild mustard and Raphanus sativus (wild radish. These species represent different life histories among the potential recipients of Bt transgenes from Bt cole crops in the US and Asia, for which rare spontaneous crosses are expected under high exposure. Protected wild radish and wild mustard seedlings had approximately half the herbivore damage of exposed plants and 55% lower seedling mortality, resulting in 27% greater reproductive success, 14-day longer life-spans, and 118% more seeds, on average. Seed addition experiments in microcosms and in situ indicated that wild radish was more likely to spread than wild mustard in coastal grasslands.

  1. Hybridization between crops and wild relatives: the contribution of cultivated lettuce to the vigour of crop-wild hybrids under drought, salinity and nutrient deficiency conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uwimana, B.; Smulders, M.J.M.; Hooftman, D.A.P.; Hartman, Y.; Tienderen, van P.H.; Jansen, J.; McHale, L.K.; Michelmore, R.W.; Wiel, van de C.C.M.; Visser, R.G.F.

    2012-01-01

    With the development of transgenic crop varieties, crop–wild hybridization has received considerable consideration with regard to the potential of transgenes to be transferred to wild species. Although many studies have shown that crops can hybridize with their wild relatives and that the resulting

  2. Hybridization between crops and wild relatives: the contribution of cultivated lettuce to the vigour of crop-wild hybrids under drought, salinity and nutrient deficiency conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uwimana, B.; Smulders, M.J.M.; Hooftman, D.A.P.; Hartman, Y.; van Tienderen, P.H.; Jansen, J.; McHale, L.K.; Michelmore, R.W.; van de Wiel, C.C.M.; Visser, R.G.F.

    2012-01-01

    With the development of transgenic crop varieties, crop-wild hybridization has received considerable consideration with regard to the potential of transgenes to be transferred to wild species. Although many studies have shown that crops can hybridize with their wild relatives and that the resulting

  3. Influence of different salting processes on the evolution of the volatile metabolites of vacuum-packed fillets of farmed and wild sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) stored under refrigeration conditions: a study by SPME-GC/MS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Natalia P; Manzanos, María J; Goicoechea, Encarnación; Guillén, María D

    2017-02-01

    Fish shelf-life extension is a topic of great interest. In this study the behaviour of salted and unsalted farmed and wild European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) fillets during storage was analysed through the evolution of their volatile metabolites. Farmed and wild sea bass fillets were brine-salted for 15 or 75 min, or dry-salted, vacuum-packed and stored at 4 °C for up to 1 month, and their headspaces were studied by Solid Phase Micro extraction-Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (SPME-GC/MS). At the same storage time, unsalted wild fillets contained, in general, a higher number and abundance of volatile compounds coming from microbiological or endogenous enzymatic activity than unsalted farmed ones. The more intense the salting, the lower the number and abundance of microbiological spoilage metabolites, especially in wild samples. The appearance of oxidation metabolites only in dry-salted wild samples evidences that this kind of salting provokes a certain oxidation in these samples. The better performance of farmed than wild fillets suggests that salted farmed fillets, vacuum-packed and stored under refrigeration conditions, could be a successful alternative to diversify the presence of sea bass in the market. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  4. Horticultural markets promote alien species invasions: an Estonian case study of herbaceous perennials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merle Ööpik

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Gardening is a popular pastime, but commercial horticulture is responsible for the introduction of alien species and contributes to invasions in a variety of ways. Although an extensive international literature is available on plant invasions, it is still important at the national level to examine the influence of local factors. Accordingly, 17 nurseries in Estonia that cultivated and sold perennial alien species were selected, and a list of species and prices was compiled. The relationships between species status, and factors such as their abundance in the wild were examined statistically. A qualitative list of the nationally problematic species among herbaceous perennials was also completed. A total of 880 taxa were recorded, of which 10.3% were native and 89.7% alien. In all, 87.3% of the alien species were still confined to cultivated areas. The ecological and socio-economic characteristics of the taxa were described, and lists of the families of casual, naturalised and invasive aliens were provided. Both native and increasing wild alien species have a very similar profile on the market. Alien species that are less expensive, widely available and have more cultivars per species on the market are also more likely to escape. The invasive status and abundance of escaped aliens in an area increases with residence time. In general, socio-economic factors create new and reflect previous propagule pressures from commercial horticulture, which continuously increase the likelihood of alien species surviving and invading new areas. Our findings suggest that these national socio-economic market-related factors explain much of the invasiveness of various perennial ornamental species, and therefore regional and national authorities urgently need to regulate and control the ornamental plant trade to diminish the risk of new invasions.

  5. Assessing landowners' attitudes toward wild hogs and support for control options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplenor, Carlotta A; Poudyal, Neelam C; Muller, Lisa I; Yoest, Chuck

    2017-10-01

    Wild hogs (Sus scrofa) are an invasive species with destructive habits, particularly rooting and wallowing, which can directly impact agricultural crops, pasture land, and water quality. Considering wild hogs are widely dispersed across the landscape, they are extremely difficult to control. Disagreements can arise among different stakeholders over whether and how their populations should be managed. The purpose of this article was to examine Tennessee, United States landowners' attitudes toward wild hogs, to compare acceptability of control methods, and to evaluate factors significantly influencing public support for regulations to control wild hogs. Logistic regression was employed to analyze data collected from a statewide survey of rural landowners in the fall of 2015. Landowners had overwhelmingly negative attitudes towards wild hogs, and were concerned about their impact on the natural environment and rural economy. Although landowners showed support for controlling wild hogs, levels of acceptability for management options varied. Respondents favored active management and supported education and incentive-based control programs to control wild hogs. Cognitive concepts such as social and personal norms and awareness of consequences, as well as demographic characteristics, significantly predicted landowners' support for state regulations to control wild hogs in Tennessee. Findings increase our understanding of the human dimensions of wild hog management and that of other similarly invasive animals, and may guide resource managers in designing effective and socially acceptable management strategies to control wild hog populations in Tennessee and elsewhere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidlich, Anke; Veit, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    The complexity of electricity markets calls for rich and flexible modeling techniques that help to understand market dynamics and to derive advice for the design of appropriate regulatory frameworks. Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) is a fairly young research paradigm that offers methods for realistic electricity market modeling. A growing number of researchers have developed agent-based models for simulating electricity markets. The diversity of approaches makes it difficult to overview the field of ACE electricity research; this literature survey should guide the way through and describe the state-of-the-art of this research area. In a conclusive summary, shortcomings of existing approaches and open issues that should be addressed by ACE electricity researchers are critically discussed. (author)

  7. WILD BEES (HYMENOPTERA: APOIDEA AS BIOINDICATORS IN THE NEOTROPICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Reyes-Novelo

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The present is a review about the use of wild bees as an indicator group in biodiversity and fragmentation studies. It describes the criteria used for the selection of bioindicator groups and it discusses the available information to evaluate if wild bees meet this criteria. The reviewed information suggests that wild bees comply with the requeriments for a suitable bioindicator group. Its use is recommended for Neotropical ecosystems.

  8. Simulation tools

    CERN Document Server

    Jenni, F

    2006-01-01

    In the last two decades, simulation tools made a significant contribution to the great progress in development of power electronics. Time to market was shortened and development costs were reduced drastically. Falling costs, as well as improved speed and precision, opened new fields of application. Today, continuous and switched circuits can be mixed. A comfortable number of powerful simulation tools is available. The users have to choose the best suitable for their application. Here a simple rule applies: The best available simulation tool is the tool the user is already used to (provided, it can solve the task). Abilities, speed, user friendliness and other features are continuously being improved—even though they are already powerful and comfortable. This paper aims at giving the reader an insight into the simulation of power electronics. Starting with a short description of the fundamentals of a simulation tool as well as properties of tools, several tools are presented. Starting with simplified models ...

  9. Haemoglobin polymorphism in wild and cultured African catfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Haemoglobin polymorphism, haemoglobin concentration, blood group and genotypes of wild and cultured Clarias gariepinus were investigated. Blood samples of Clarias gariepinus collected from Lake Alau (wild) and Dalori fish farm (cultured) were subjected to cellulose acetate electrophoresis to reveal the activities of ...

  10. Market review: Market values summary July market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market is provided. Recent transactions are tabulated, including uranium sales, natural uranium loans, conversion sales, and enrichment sales. A market values summary and long-term price indicators are also provided. The July 1996 market review data includes summaries of near-term uranium sales, near-term supply/demand, NUEXCO values, USEC prices, and calculated worth of enriched uranium. Active projects in uranium, conversion, and separative work supply and demand are listed. International market values are tabulated for 22 selected currencies

  11. The control of classical swine fever in wild boar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker eMoennig

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Classical swine fever (CSF is a viral disease with severe economic consequences for domestic pigs. Natural hosts for the CSF virus (CSFV are members of the family Suidae, i.e. Eurasian wild boar (sus scrofa are also susceptible. CSF in wild boar poses a serious threat to domestic pigs. CSFV is an enveloped RNA virus belonging to the pestivirus genus of the Flaviviridae family. Transmission of the infection is usually by direct contact or by feeding of contaminated meat products. In recent decades CSF has been successfully eradicated from Australia, North America, and the European Union. In areas with dense wild boar populations CSF tends to become endemic whereas it is often self-limiting in small, less dense populations. In recent decades eradication strategies of CSF in wild boar have been improved considerably. The reduction of the number of susceptible animals to a threshold level where the basic reproductive number is R0<1 is the major goal of all control efforts. Depending on the epidemiological situation, hunting measures combined with strict hygiene may be effective in areas with a relatively low density of wild boar. Oral immunization was shown to be highly effective in endemic situations in areas with a high density of wild boar.

  12. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 54, č. 1 (2017), s. 148-155 ISSN 1007-5704 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Ising model * Efficient market hypothesis * Monte Carlo simulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.784, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kristoufek-0474986.pdf

  13. Wild food plants and wild edible fungi of Heihe valley (Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, central China: herbophilia and indifference to fruits and mushrooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxiang Kang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to investigate knowledge and use of wild food plants and fungi in Han (i.e. Chinese nationality villages in central China, including famine plants used in the respondents' childhood. A valley adjacent to the extremely species-rich temperate forest vegetation of the Taibai Nature Reserve was chosen. Eighty-two people from 5 villages took part in the study. Altogether, 159 wild food plant species and 13 fungi folk taxa were mentioned by informants. The mean number of freelisted wild foods was very high (24.8; median – 21.5. An average respondent listed many species of wild vegetables (mean – 17, me- dian – 14.5, a few wild fruits (mean – 5.9 and median – 6 and very few fungi (mean – 1.9, median – 1, which they had eaten. Over 50% of respondents mentioned gathering the young shoots or leaves of Celastrus orbiculatus, Staphylea bumalda and S. holocapra, Caryopteris divaricata, Helwingia japonica, Pteridium aquilinum, Pimpinella sp., Amaranthus spp., Matteucia struthiopteris, Allium spp., Cardamine macrophylla and Chenopodium album. Only one species of fruits (Schisandra sphenanthera and none of the mushrooms were mentioned by over half of the respondents. Although very diverse, it can be noted that the use of wild vegetables has decreased compared to the second half of the 20th century, as informants listed several plants which they had stopped using (e.g. Abelia engleriana due to the availability of cultivated vegetables and other foodstuffs. On the other hand, the collection of the most well-known wild vegetables is maintained by selling them to tourists visiting agritourist farms, and restaurants.

  14. Bacteriological and genetic assessment of game meat from Japanese wild boars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naya, Yuka; Horiuchi, Motohiro; Ishiguro, Naotaka; Shinagawa, Morikazu

    2003-01-15

    Bacterial tests were used to assess bacterial contamination of game meat from Japanese wild boars. The bacterial contamination of wild boar meat was less than that of domestic pork, as determined by aerobic plate counts (APC) and coliform counts. None of the meat examined in this study was contaminated by Salmonella or E. coli O-157. To detect adulteration by domestic pig meat or European wild boar meat, 46 samples of game meat sold as Japanese wild boar were examined genetically. A total of 17 samples showed genetic haplotypes of European and Asian domestic pigs in the D-loop of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and 16 samples showed nuclear glucosephosphate isomerase-processed pseudogene (GPIP) genotypes of European domestic pigs. The European GPIP genotypes of these samples were confirmed by PCR-RFLP analysis. These results indicate that some game meat sold as Japanese wild boar is adulterated by cross-breeding between pigs and wild boars or by contamination with meat from domestic pigs or European wild boars.

  15. Estimation of in situ mating systems in wild sorghum (Sorghum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The high outcrossing rates of wild/weedy sorghum populations in Ethiopia indicate a high potential for crop genes (including transgenes) to spread within the wild pool. Therefore, effective risk management strategies may be needed if the introgression of transgenes or other crop genes from improved cultivars into wild or ...

  16. Impact of renewables on electricity markets – Do support schemes matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Jenny; Gaio, Alberto; Pfluger, Benjamin; Ragwitz, Mario

    2016-01-01

    Rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways: among others, average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases. Therefore, the “missing money problem” in energy-only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares. Nevertheless, renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits. The kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market. While fixed feed-in tariffs lead to higher market impacts, more market-oriented support schemes such as market premiums, quota systems and capacity-based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected. This paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes. For this purpose, a new module is added to an existing bottom-up simulation model of the electricity market. In addition, different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered. A case study for Germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme. - Highlights: •Renewable support schemes matter regarding the impact on electricity markets. •Market-oriented support schemes reduce the impact on electricity markets. •More flexible electricity systems reduce the need for market participation. •Sliding premiums combine market integration with a productive risk allocation.

  17. Market Review: Market values summary; March market review; Current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    This article is the March 1996 uranium market summary. In this reporting period, there were two deals in the natural uranium spot market and four deals in the long-term market. The unrestricted value moved upward to $13.50 per pound U3O8, and the long-term price indicator was $16.50. In the UF6 market, there was but a single deal. Both the restricted and the unrestricted values moved upward, to $47.00 and $41.25 respectively. The restricted and the unrestricted transaction values moved upward, to $13.35 and $8.40 respectively. In the enrichment services market, there were no transactions. Both the restricted and the unrestricted SWU values remained constant at $97 and $90 respectively. Active uranium supply rose, while active demand decreased sharply

  18. Market efficiency in foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan; Eom, Cheoljun

    2007-08-01

    We investigate the relative market efficiency in financial market data, using the approximate entropy(ApEn) method for a quantification of randomness in time series. We used the global foreign exchange market indices for 17 countries during two periods from 1984 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2004 in order to study the efficiency of various foreign exchange markets around the market crisis. We found that on average, the ApEn values for European and North American foreign exchange markets are larger than those for African and Asian ones except Japan. We also found that the ApEn for Asian markets increased significantly after the Asian currency crisis. Our results suggest that the markets with a larger liquidity such as European and North American foreign exchange markets have a higher market efficiency than those with a smaller liquidity such as the African and Asian markets except Japan.

  19. Study of probiotic potential of four wild Lactobacillus rhamnosus strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuo, Yanfeng; Zhang, Weiqin; Zhang, Lanwei; Ai, Lianzhong; Zhang, Yingchun; Han, Xue; Yi, Huaxi

    2013-06-01

    The four wild Lactobacillus rhamnosus strains were examined in vitro for resistance to simulated gastro and intestinal juices, adhesion to HT-29 cells, antagonistic activity against enteric pathogens and immunomodulating activity. The strains L. rhamnosus SB5L, J5L and IN1L were able to survive in simulated gastro juice while the strain L. rhamnosus SB31L lost viability exposed to simulated gastro juice for 3 h. The four strains had high viability in simulated small intestinal juice with little loss (<1.0 cycle reduction). The strains SB5L, J5L and IN1L antagonized against Escherichia coli ATCC 25922, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium ATCC 14028, Shigella sonnei ATCC 25931. The strain L. rhamnosus IN1L had the highest adhesive capability to HT-29 cells in vitro (251 bacteria cells per 100 HT-29 cells) compared to the other three L. rhamnosus strains. The live bacteria, cell wall and DNA of the four L. rhamnosus induced the secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-12 (p70), IFN-γ and TNF-α by human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). The levels of IL-12 (p70), IFN-γ and TNF-α produced by stimulated PBMCs were significantly higher (P < 0.05) than those of the control. Those data indicated that the four L. rhamnosus strains have the potential as the probiotic for human being use, although further studies are still needed. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Entry Regulations, Product Differentiation and Determinants of Market Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Maican, Florin; Orth, ´Matilda

    2013-01-01

    We use a dynamic oligopoly model of entry and exit to evaluate how entry regulations affect profitability and market structure in retail. The model incorporates demand and store-level heterogeneity. Based on unique data for all retail food stores in Sweden, we find that the average entry costs for small and large stores are 10 and 18 percent lower, respectively, in markets with liberal compared with restrictive regulations. Counterfactual simulations show that lower entry costs in restrictive...

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.