WorldWideScience

Sample records for market model concerned

  1. Markets for Collective Concerns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Christian; Ossandón, José; Pallesen, Trine

    Despite the recent fall-out of finance, confidence in the market does not seem to be diminishing, but, on the contrary, market mechanisms are becoming key instruments to deal with core contemporary collective concerns, including global warming, education, environmental pollution, supply of energy......, quality of education, poverty and health care (Mirowski 2013). Recent research within STS has started to focus on such kind of arrangements and in this presentation we will critically engage with this literature. Our main results are twofold. On the one hand, we recognize there are important conceptual...... tools already available - such as 'matters of public concern' (Marres 2007) and 'hybrid forums' (Callon et al. 2001; Callon 2009)- that help in framing the particularity of these arrangements. On the other hand, previous STS-market research notions developed mostly in the field of finance studies cannot...

  2. Solving Infrastructural Concerns Through a Market Reorganization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pallesen, Trine; Holm Jacobsen, Peter

    2018-01-01

    aggregators and reconfigures existing market actors. In this paper, we study a case, EcoGrid 2.0 on the Danish island Bornholm, as a case of a ‘marketized’ solution to the infrastructural concerns emerging from the large share of fluctuating wind power in the system. The market design involves transforming...

  3. Inflow shortages in deregulated power markets - Reasons for concern?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bye, Torstein; Bruvoll, Annegrete; Aune, Finn Roar [Research Department, Statistics Norway, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo (Norway)

    2008-07-15

    In many countries hydropower constitutes a large share of the electricity producing capacity. In the earlier regulated electricity markets, production capacities exceeded demand due to security of supply concerns. The present deregulated markets base investments upon profitability alone, and security of supply issues are claimed to be less important. Market operators trust the pricing mechanism in competitive markets to clear. Then low inflow constitutes a less problem. Several markets, both under regulated and deregulated regimes, have faced serious droughts. Some of them have experienced problems with market clearance (Chile, Brazil, California) while other markets functioned well (The Nordic market). Important features to the market response are the flexibility of demand, the pattern of inflow shortage, the storage capacities, the possibility of trade between regions with different production technologies, and the market design and concentration. We apply an empirical based market model to simulate the effects under two inflow shortage scenarios in an international market with combined hydro and thermal capacities and restricted transmission capacities. We compare the scenarios with actual events and show that the model and the real market outcome are comparable. The simulations do not reveal any problems with the functioning of the market, which should calm down the anxiousness about security of supply in deregulated markets with stochastic energy supply. (author)

  4. Inflow shortages in deregulated power markets - Reasons for concern?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bye, Torstein; Bruvoll, Annegrete; Aune, Finn Roar

    2008-01-01

    In many countries hydropower constitutes a large share of the electricity producing capacity. In the earlier regulated electricity markets, production capacities exceeded demand due to security of supply concerns. The present deregulated markets base investments upon profitability alone, and security of supply issues are claimed to be less important. Market operators trust the pricing mechanism in competitive markets to clear. Then low inflow constitutes a less problem. Several markets, both under regulated and deregulated regimes, have faced serious droughts. Some of them have experienced problems with market clearance (Chile, Brazil, California) while other markets functioned well (The Nordic market). Important features to the market response are the flexibility of demand, the pattern of inflow shortage, the storage capacities, the possibility of trade between regions with different production technologies, and the market design and concentration. We apply an empirical based market model to simulate the effects under two inflow shortage scenarios in an international market with combined hydro and thermal capacities and restricted transmission capacities. We compare the scenarios with actual events and show that the model and the real market outcome are comparable. The simulations do not reveal any problems with the functioning of the market, which should calm down the anxiousness about security of supply in deregulated markets with stochastic energy supply

  5. 42 CFR 423.2260 - Definitions concerning marketing materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ..., yellow pages, or the Internet. (ii) Marketing representative materials such as scripts or outlines for... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Definitions concerning marketing materials. 423... Marketing Requirements § 423.2260 Definitions concerning marketing materials. As used in this subpart...

  6. Allegations Concerning Defense Reutilization and Marketing Service Business Practices

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    We performed this audit in response to a request from Senator John Warner. The request was based on several allegations the senator's office received concerning the operations of the Defense Reutilization and Marketing Service (DRMS...

  7. 42 CFR 422.2260 - Definitions concerning marketing materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...; changes in providers, premiums, benefits, plan procedures etc. (vii) Membership activities (for example... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Definitions concerning marketing materials. 422... HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PROGRAM Medicare Advantage Marketing...

  8. How does market concern derived from the Internet affect oil prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Jian-Feng; Ji, Qiang

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • The impact of market concern derived from the Web on oil volatility is analysed. • It has an equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern. • The short-run market concerns have an asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. • The Internet can exaggerate the impact of information shocks on oil price. - Abstract: With the acceleration of oil marketisation and the rapid development of electronic information carriers, external information shocks can be easily and quickly transmitted to the oil market through the Internet. This paper analyses the impact of short- and long-run market concerns, derived from search query volumes in Google for different domains around the oil market on oil volatility using co-integration and the modified EGARCH model. Empirical results suggest there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern for oil prices and oil demand. The short-run market concerns for the 2008 financial crisis and the Libyan war convulsion have a significant and asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. This indicates that market concern transmitted through the Internet can strengthen the linkage between oil price changes and external events by influencing the expectation of market traders, and to some extent it can exaggerate the impact of nonfundamental information shocks

  9. MARKETING MODELS APPLICATION EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yu. Rymanov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Marketing models are used for the assessment of such marketing elements as sales volume, market share, market attractiveness, advertizing costs, product pushing and selling, profit, profitableness. Classification of buying process decision taking models is presented. SWOT- and GAPbased models are best for selling assessments. Lately, there is a tendency to transfer from the assessment on the ba-sis of financial indices to that on the basis of those non-financial. From the marketing viewpoint, most important are long-term company activities and consumer drawingmodels as well as market attractiveness operative models.

  10. Cyber-pharmacies and emerging concerns on marketing drugs online

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinod Scaria

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available The booming e-commerce and a regulation-less environment online have led to the rise of a new generation of websites that market drugs and other products over the Internet. Some of these drugs are often herbal products or of dubious quality, often marketed with a mix of professional design and unverified/fraudulent claims. Several concerns have arisen from different corners and evidence of malpractice has emerged. But there is a lack of sufficient evidence confirming the concerns.

  11. Online Certificate Program Moves Participants to Advanced Stages of Concern for Social Marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, Anil Kumar; Warner, Laura A.; Stofer, Kathryn A.

    2017-01-01

    Social marketing is an underused strategy that agricultural educators can employ to bring about behavior change. We designed an online certificate program for Extension professionals and other educators based on an identified need for social marketing professional development. The Concerns-Based Adoption Model (CBAM) served as the conceptual…

  12. Unhealthy marketing of pharmaceutical products: An international public health concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulinari, Shai

    2016-05-01

    I consider the current state of pharmaceutical marketing vis-à-vis ethical and legal standards and advocate measures to improve it. There is abundant evidence of unethical or illicit marketing. It fuels growing concerns about undue corporate influence over pharmaceutical research, education, and consumption. The most extensive evidence of industry transgressions comes from the United States (US), where whistle-blowers are encouraged by financial rewards to help uncover illicit marketing and fraud. Outside the US increasing evidence of transgressions exists. Recently I have observed a range of new measures to align pharmaceutical marketing practices with ethical and legal standards. In the interest of public health, I highlight the need for additional and more profound reforms to ensure that information about medicines supports quality and resource-efficient care.

  13. THE SPORT MARKETING MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Lucian MIHAI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sport marketing involves marketing fundamentals applied in one industry, the sport business industry. The development of sport marketing fundamentals is therefore based on basic marketing principles. The practice and activities of sport marketing are also based on basic marketing activities, but are modified and adapted to the sport business industry. Therefore, sport marketing is based on its primary and parent discipline - marketing. Sport marketing is one of the most important functions of a sport business. This is because the sport marketing activities will define the business. The growth of the sport industry is phenomenal and shows no signs of slowing. Also, sport marketing is a process. A process is a continuous cycle. Therefore, marketing is a function that never ends. The sport marketing management model is an illustration of the elements and process of sport marketing. It should serve as a guide for managing the company’s marketing functions. The model illustrates the elements of marketing, the succession of elements and functions, the process of managing, and the interdependence of the elements This paper presents an overview of the model, sport marketing management, each element and the process.

  14. Modelling Market Dynamics with a "Market Game"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kei; Chen, Yu

    In the financial market, traders, especially speculators, typically behave as to yield capital gains by the difference between selling and buying prices. Making use of the structure of Minority Game, we build a novel market toy model which takes account of such the speculative mind involving a round-trip trade to analyze the market dynamics as a system. Even though the micro-level behavioral rules of players in this new model is quite simple, its macroscopic aggregational output has the reproducibility of the well-known stylized facts such as volatility clustering and heavy tails. The proposed model may become a new alternative bottom-up approach in order to study the emerging mechanism of those stylized qualitative properties of asset returns.

  15. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  16. COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Mednikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

  17. Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractTo comprehend the competitive structure of a market, it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on market shares. A useful model to link market shares with marketing-mix variables, like price and promotion, is the market share attraction model.

  18. Current experience concerning Romanian green certificates market functioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladescu, Gherghina; Lupului, Luminita; Vasilevschi, Constantin; Ghinea, Smaranda

    2006-01-01

    The renewable energy sources are promoted by their beneficial use, namely: - diversification of energy sources for producing electric power; - reduction of pollution produced by fossil fuel burning; - reduction of gas releases producing the greenhouse effects, etc. Currently, most of the renewable energy sources cannot concur on electric power free market because of the high costs of implied investments. To ensure an efficient use of renewable energy sources in electricity production and to maintain the installations implied on the electric power market, it is necessary to implement a system able to produce an output greater than that obtained from electric energy selling. The Romanian Government chose to promote the electric energy production by renewable energy sources by using the green certificate trading system. This system ensures the progress in developing the technologies employed in electric energy production from renewable energy sources and, at the same time the costs implied by their promotion can be adjusted by market mechanisms what will reduce the effects upon the electric energy consumers. The paper presents the legislation frame existing in Romania for promoting the electric energy produced from renewable energy sources, the green certificate trading system applied in Romania, as well as, the role shared by the entities implied in operation and development of the system. In November 2005, a first transaction with green certificates on controlled green certificate market in Romania took place. Analyzed is the evolution of the green certificate market registered so far from its inception, as well as, the lessons learned so far from the experience acquired

  19. Proposition for an act concerning gas markets. Report of a working group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The working group was commissioned to draft an act through which the directive 98/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning common rules for the internal market in natural gas will be implemented in Finland. According to the directive Finland may derogate from the obligation to open its gas networks up to the time when the Finnish gas network will be directly connected to the interconnected system of another Member State or Finland has at least two external suppliers of gas and the market share of either of them will not exceed 75 percent. Finland will take advantage of the possibility of derogating from the directive as long as preconditions mentioned above are valid. As soon as either of the preconditions ceases to be valid, Finland will have to open its gas networks as prescribed in the directive. The working group was further commissioned to present a proposal for arranging the trade in gas between the retailers and the users, i.e. the secondary market for gas. According to the draft act the obligation to offer transmission services concerns those network owners who deliver gas to customers fulfilling certain conditions. The customers concerned would include those who would like to buy or sell gas, originally bought from the Finnish wholesale markets, for their own use or for distribution through their distribution network. Furthermore, it is provided that these customers consume gas more than five million cubic meters a year and that they belong to the long distance metering system of gas. Access to the secondary market would be open to all users and distributors fulfilling the conditions mentioned above. For the implementation of the directive the draft act includes provisions on unbundling and transparency of accounts, the obligations for the network owners to connect to and to develop the network, a network access model and the possibility of denying access to the network through a special application procedure. Furthermore, the draft

  20. 77 FR 38553 - Proposed Modification to Regulation Concerning the Use of Market Economy Input Prices in...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-28

    ... Regulation Concerning the Use of Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings AGENCY: Import... states that the Department normally will use the price that a nonmarket economy (``NME'') producer pays to a market economy supplier when a factor of production is purchased from a market economy supplier...

  1. Green Tourism Marketing Model1

    OpenAIRE

    Hasan, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Green Tourism Marketing Model research as efforts to develop environmentally friendly tourism destination, the synergy of government, business and community participation become the driving force of tourism product development with highly competitive. In the long term, this research aims to provide the marketing concept of green tourism as economic development efforts and strengthen the environment (eco-growth) through the development of green tourism marketing models. The ...

  2. Marketing Modeling for New Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis addresses the analysis of new or very recent marketing data and the introduction of new marketing models. We present a collection of models that are useful to analyze (1) the optimal launch time of new and dominant technologies, (2) the triggers, speed and timing of new

  3. Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Successful innovation of prescription drugs requires a substantial amount of marketing support. There is, however, much concern about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand of pharmaceutical products (Manchanda et al., Market Lett 16(3/4):293-308, 2005). For example, excessive marketing

  4. Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V.; Barth, R.; Brand, H.; Weber, C.; Voll, O.

    2006-01-01

    The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

  5. Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Barth, R.; Brand, H. [IER, Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany); Weber, C.; Voll, O. [Univ. of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2006-01-15

    The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

  6. Simulation based decision support for strategic communication and marketing management concerning the consumer introduction of smart energy meters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen STRAGIER

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Communication and marketing professionals make strategic decisions in highly complex and dynamic contexts. These decisions are highly uncertain on the outcome and process level when, for example, consumer behaviour is at stake. Decision support systems can provide insights in these levels of uncertainty and the professional process of decision making. However, literature describing decision support tools for strategic communication and marketing management that provide clear insights in uncertainty levels is lacking. This study therefore aims at developing a consumer behaviour simulation module as an important element of such a future decision support tool. The consumer behaviour simulation we propose in this paper is based on data collected from a survey among 386 households with which a behavioural change model was calibrated. We show how various decision scenarios for strategic communication and marketing challenges can be explored and how such a simulation based decision support system can facilitate strategic communication and marketing management concerning the introduction of a smart energy meter.

  7. Noncooperative models of permit markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd

    2011-07-15

    The applicability of some popular and basic permit market theories has been questioned. Drawing on noncooperative equilibrium theory for pure exchange economies, this article adapts several well-established alternative models to permit exchange. Some qualitative properties of the associated equilibria are provided, including two games with equilibria that in a sense coincide. Nevertheless, as there exist quite a few models potentially applicable to emissions trading, with equilibria that range from autarky to Pareto optimality, it seems that economics lacks a broadly accepted basic theory for permit markets. (Author)

  8. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  9. Modeling market power in Korea's emerging power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Nam-sung; Niemeyer, Victor

    2007-01-01

    The Korean power market is being formed from the unbundled generation, transmission and distribution assets of Korea Electric Power Corporation. The KEPCO generation has been allocated to six independent gencos with a combined generating capacity of 46,629 MW in 2002. This gave an 11% margin over the peak load that year (41,921 MW). One of the concerns for any power market is whether individual participants can increase profits (and prices) by withholding generation from the market. To address this concern, a Cournot-based model of Korean power system was created and applied to a set of loads representing the load duration curve for Korea's system loads in 2002. Our simulation results show a strong possibility for exercise of market power to increase market price in Korean market. Under tight market conditions, even 1 GW of withholding can cause a large increase in market price. If loads unexpectedly grow faster than the 5% recent experience, the gencos will have the collective ability and incentive to spike prices further. Vesting contracts can reduce the incentive to act strategically. Requiring that the gencos offer 50% of their capacity in long-term forward contracts greatly reduces the payoff to act strategically, and requiring vesting for 75% of their capacity results in prices that are essentially the same as the competitive equilibrium. Depending on the price for the vesting contracts, this policy can reduce the incentives to add new generation by gencos or the competitive fringe. Another approach to reducing the effects of market power is establishing demand-response programs, simulated here by increasing the elasticity of overall demand. These programs can reduce the incentives to withhold capacity, but to a lesser degree than vesting contracts. The genco with the greatest ability to influence prices through withholding is the largest, KNHP. However, acting on its own, without the support of the other gencos, its ability to raise prices is limited. This

  10. 75 FR 27552 - Credit Reforms in Organized Wholesale Electric Markets; Further Notice Concerning Technical...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-17

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. RM10-13-000] Credit Reforms in Organized Wholesale Electric Markets; Further Notice Concerning Technical Conference May 10, 2010... technical conference related to the Commission's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Credit Reforms in...

  11. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  12. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  14. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, V.

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  15. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang Jifang; Gabriel, Steven A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems

  16. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jifang Zhuang; Gabriel, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems. (author)

  17. Towards an E-market Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivang, Reimer; Hinson, Robert; Somasundaram, Ramanathan

    2006-01-01

    on the literature survey and ídentification of gaps in the present e-market definitive models, the authors postulate a preliminary e-market reference model. Originality/ Value: Through synthesizing the e-market literature, and by taking into account contemporary e-market developments, key dimensions that define......Purpose: Seeks to argue that there are problems associated with e-market definitive efforts and consequently seeks proposes a new e-market model. Design/methodology/Approach: Paper based largely on literature survey and an assessment of the existing e-market conceptualizations. Findings: Based...

  18. A typology of health marketing research methods--combining public relations methods with organizational concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotarius, Timothy; Wan, Thomas T H; Liberman, Aaron

    2007-01-01

    Research plays a critical role throughout virtually every conduit of the health services industry. The key terms of research, public relations, and organizational interests are discussed. Combining public relations as a strategic methodology with the organizational concern as a factor, a typology of four different research methods emerges. These four health marketing research methods are: investigative, strategic, informative, and verification. The implications of these distinct and contrasting research methods are examined.

  19. Models of the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

    1991-01-01

    Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

  20. Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallo, Giulia [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-12-18

    The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One option includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.

  1. Rethinking exchange market models as optimization algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luquini, Evandro; Omar, Nizam

    2018-02-01

    The exchange market model has mainly been used to study the inequality problem. Although the human society inequality problem is very important, the exchange market models dynamics until stationary state and its capability of ranking individuals is interesting in itself. This study considers the hypothesis that the exchange market model could be understood as an optimization procedure. We present herein the implications for algorithmic optimization and also the possibility of a new family of exchange market models

  2. MODELS CONCERNING PREVENTIVE VERIFICATION OF TECHNICAL EQUIPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CÂRLAN M.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents three operative models whose purpose is to improve the practice of preventive maintenance to a wide range of technical installations. Although the calculation criteria are different, the goal is the same: to determine the optimum time between two consecutive preventive interventions. The optimum criteria of these models are: - the maximum share of technical entity operating probabilities, in the case of the Ackoff - Sasieni [1] method; -the optimum time interval for preventive verification depending on the preventive-corrective maintenance costs imposed by the deciding factor, for the AsturioBaldin [2] model; - the minimum number of renewals – preventive and/or corrective maintenance operations [3

  3. Modeling market power in electricity markets: Is the devil only in the details?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bautista, Guillermo; Anjos, Miguel F.; Vannelli, Anthony

    2007-01-15

    Basic approximations of the transmission system are ubiquitous in the literature on modeling competition in electricity markets. Because the main concern of market power is with active power, reactive power and voltage-related issues are commonly neglected, even though they are inherent features of an electrical power system. However, the usefulness of stylized formulations that do not comprise these system elements may be severely limited. (author)

  4. Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jolita Jezukevičiūtė; Vida Davidavičienė

    2014-01-01

    The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalys...

  5. Brand marketing model on social networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jezukevičiūtė, Jolita; Davidavičienė, Vida

    2014-01-01

    Paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions on social networks. This analysis led to the creation of improved brand marketing model on social networks, which will contribute to the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increase competitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore, the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hot research area for brand marketing model on social networks. The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratory an...

  6. Deployment Models: Towards Eliminating Security Concerns From Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Gansen; Chunming, Rong; Jaatun, Martin Gilje; Sandnes, Frode Eika

    2010-01-01

    Cloud computing has become a popular choice as an alternative to investing new IT systems. When making decisions on adopting cloud computing related solutions, security has always been a major concern. This article summarizes security concerns in cloud computing and proposes five service deployment models to ease these concerns. The proposed models provide different security related features to address different requirements and scenarios and can serve as reference models for deployment. D...

  7. Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Kenta; Takayasu, Hideki; Ito, Takatoshi; Takayasu, Misako

    2009-05-01

    We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects: the self-modulation of transaction intervals and a forecasting tendency, which uses a moving average of the latest market price changes. Based on the present microscopic model of markets, we find a quantitative relation with market potential forces, which have recently been discovered in the study of market price modeling based on random walks.

  8. The BERR gas market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-10-01

    Security of supply is one of the key objectives in the UK's department of Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) gas market model. BERR found that a useful way to measure energy security was to estimate future 'expected energy unserved'. This comprises a combination of possible levels of shortfall between supply and demand and other probabilities to give a probability-weighted amount of unserved demand. BERR has also studied the conditions (inputs) that are likely to result in lower expected energy unserved, i.e. it has identified the drivers of security of supply and has developed a framework for categorising these drivers

  9. Model of Nordic energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjelsvik, E.; Johnsen, T.; Mysen, H.T.

    1992-01-01

    Simulation results are given of the consumption of electricity and oil in Denmark, Norway and Sweden based on the demand section of a Nordic energy market model which is in the process of being developed in Oslo under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The model incorporates supply, and trade between countries so that it can be analyzed how trading can contribute to goals within energy and environmental policies and to cost effective activities aimed at reducing pollution. The article deals in some detail with the subject of how taxation on carbon dioxide emission can influence pollution abatement and with energy consumption development within individual sectors in individual Northern countries. The model of energy demand is described with emphasis on the individual sectors of industry, transport, service and private households. Simulation results giving the effects of energy consumption and increased taxation on fossil fuels are given. On this background the consequences of the adaption of power plants is discussed and a sketch is given of a Nordic electric power market incorporating trading. (AB) (15 refs.)

  10. Viral marketing as epidemiological model

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Helena Sofia; Fonseca, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and received by the target market through person-to-person transmission. This specific marketing communication strategy is commonly referred as viral marketing. Due to this similarity between an epidemic and the viral marketing process and because the understanding of...

  11. Advertising effects in Sznajd marketing model

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Schulze

    2002-01-01

    The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, are applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice is the smaller is the amount of advertising needed to convince the whole market

  12. Advertising in the Sznajd Marketing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Christian

    The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, is applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice, the smaller the amount of advertising is needed to convince the whole market.

  13. Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolita Jezukevičiūtė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalysis of a single case study revealed a brand marketingsocial networking tools that affect consumers the most. Basedon information analysis and methodological studies, develop abrand marketing model on social networks.

  14. Electrodynamical Model of Quasi-Efficient Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilinski, Kirill N.; Stepanenko, Alexander S.

    The modelling of financial markets presents a problem which is both theoretically challenging and practically important. The theoretical aspects concern the issue of market efficiency which may even have political implications [1], whilst the practical side of the problem has clear relevance to portfolio management [2] and derivative pricing [3]. Up till now all market models contain "smart money" traders and "noise" traders whose joint activity constitutes the market [4, 5]. On a short time scale this traditional separation does not seem to be realistic, and is hardly acceptable since all high-frequency market participants are professional traders and cannot be separated into "smart" and "noisy." In this paper we present a "microscopic" model with homogenuous quasi-rational behaviour of traders, aiming to describe short time market behaviour. To construct the model we use an analogy between "screening" in quantum electrodynamics and an equilibration process in a market with temporal mispricing [6, 7]. As a result, we obtain the time-dependent distribution function of the returns which is in quantitative agreement with real market data and obeys the anomalous scaling relations recently reported for both high-frequency exchange rates [8], S&P500 [9] and other stock market indices [10, 11].

  15. Matrix Model for Choosing Green Marketing Sustainable Strategic Alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălina Sitnikov

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Green marketing examines the symbiotic role played by marketing in ensuring sustainable business, exploring issues concerning the environment and the way strategic decisions can influence it. At present, the environmental issues concern more and more the competitive approach any organization can implement. Based on this approach, organizations can gain competitive advantage by managing environmental variables and by developing and implementing green marketing strategies. Considering the importance and impact of green marketing, by using theoretical concepts and defining a set of research directions, the paper and the research conducted were focused on creating a matrix model for choosing the optimal green marketing strategy, oriented towards competitive advantage. The model is based on the correlation that can be established among the generic strategies of competitive advantage, the variables of extended marketing mix (7Ps and the green marketing strategy matrix. There are also analyzed the implications that may be generated within a company by the adoption of a green marketing strategy and its role in promoting the environmental benefits of products.

  16. Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); D.M. Hanssens (Dominique)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe question of long-run market response lies at the heart of any marketing strategy that tries to create a sustainable competitive advantage for the firm or brand. A key challenge, however, is that only short-run results of marketing actions are readily observable. Persistence modeling

  17. Marketing research model of competitive environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasilya Dmitriy

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available To support its competitive advantages in current market conditions, each company needs to choose better ways of guaranteeing its favorable competitive position. In this regard, considerable interest lies in the structuring and algorithmization of marketing research processes that provide the information background of such choice. The article is devoted to modeling the process of marketing research of competitive environment.

  18. The integrated North American electricity market : investment in electricity infrastructure and supply : a North American concern

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, T.

    2006-03-01

    Electricity supply and infrastructure solutions for the United States and Canada were discussed along with the availability of fuel supply and the diversity of fuel sources. This document focuses on investment in transmission infrastructure in order to assure sustainable generation sources for both countries while addressing constraints along the border, which will allow for enhanced cross-border trade. The Canadian Electricity Association has proposed 3 areas of bi-national cooperation to promote effective investment in electricity infrastructure and supply in the North American market: (1) cooperation in enhancing electricity supply, (2) cooperation in enhancing transmission infrastructure, and (3) cooperation in addressing air quality issues and climate change. The report discussed electricity generation by fuel source in Canada and the United States; status of restructuring in Canada; as well as the economic and environmental benefits of an integrated market. It also discussed regulatory and policy matters affecting the investment environment. Last, it discussed the need for opportunities for investment in the North American market, distribution and demand side measures, and cooperation in enhancing transmission infrastructure. It was concluded that growing electricity demand in both the United States and Canada requires investment in electricity infrastructure and supply in the future. Resolving electricity infrastructure and supply needs must be an international concern, requiring the full engagement and cooperation of both countries. 1 tab, 2 figs

  19. Motor Gasoline Market Model documentation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Motor Gasoline Market Model (MGMM), describe its basic approach and to provide detail on model functions. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. The MGMM performs a short-term (6- to 9-month) forecast of demand and price for motor gasoline in the US market; it also calculates end of month stock levels. The model is used to analyze certain market behavior assumptions or shocks and to determine the effect on market price, demand and stock level

  20. Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erie Febrian

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar's (2006 framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1, GARCH(3,1, and GARCH (1,1, respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.

  1. The utility target market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leng, G.J.; Martin, J.

    1994-01-01

    A new model (the Utility Target Market Model) is used to evaluate the economic benefits of photovoltaic (PV) power systems located at the electrical utility customer site. These distributed PV demand-side generation systems can be evaluated in a similar manner to other demand-side management technologies. The energy and capacity values of an actual PV system located in the service area of the New England Electrical System (NEES) are the two utility benefits evaluated. The annual stream of energy and capacity benefits calculated for the utility are converted to the installed cost per watt that the utility should be willing to invest to receive this benefit stream. Different discount rates are used to show the sensitivity of the allowable installed cost of the PV systems to a utility's average cost of capital. Capturing both the energy and capacity benefits of these relatively environmentally friendly distributed generators, NEES should be willing to invest in this technology when the installed cost per watt declines to ca $2.40 using NEES' rated cost of capital (8.78%). If a social discount rate of 3% is used, installation should be considered when installed cost approaches $4.70/W. Since recent installations in the Sacramento Municipal Utility District have cost between $7-8/W, cost-effective utility applications of PV are close. 22 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  2. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  3. New Brunswick Market Design Committee : market design issues paper : choice of market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    A model for the competitive electricity market in New Brunswick was not specified by the White Paper: New Brunswick Energy Policy, published in March 2001. One of the tasks of the Market Design Committee (MDC) is to select a market model for the province. This report was prepared with this objective in mind. It begins by providing a description of the basic functions that must be performed by any electricity system. Different market models will function differently, and a descriptions of how the functions would be performed under each model is presented. Considering the specific size and geographic location of New Brunswick, a number of actual markets that could be of interest are presented. The various electricity markets normally use one of four market models: vertically integrated monopoly utility, a competitive pool market, a bilateral contract market, and a single-buyer market. The first model was not explained as it represents the existing, non-competitive model whereby the government owns and/or regulates price and investment decision. The case where a market operator receives bids and offers from buyers and sellers and matches them to derive a price and schedule for the spot market is what is called the competitive pool market. When electricity trade takes place through a series of contracts between individual buyers and sellers, it is referred to as a bilateral contract market. Finally, the single-buyer market is defined as a monopoly where the buyer purchases from multiple sellers based on competition amongst them. Different examples are provided of applications of the three markets described in the paper. Both New England and New Zealand were chosen to better illustrate the concepts of a fully competitive pool-based market, as they either have close ties to New Brunswick, or share physical similarities. The single-buyer model is illustrated by the case of Northern Ireland where size is similar. The choices made in Quebec were described in the final

  4. Modelling of demand response and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  5. Marketing Education on a Shoestring: A Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shreeve, William; And Others

    Few educators envision themselves as marketing or public relations experts, yet economic reality is forcing many academicians into these roles. Over the past four years, the Eastern Washington University Department of Education has developed a successful marketing model for educators. The model begins with a successful reform of department…

  6. The market features of imported non-indigenous polychaetes in Portugal and consequent ecological concerns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Fidalgo e Costa

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The importance of the market for polychaetes dramatically increased after the discovery of their potential as food in aquaculture. In Portugal, the gathering of polychaetes solely from natural populations is not sufficient to meet market demand, both as bait for sea anglers and as a food item in aquaculture. The requests for worms to polychaete dealers by Portuguese and Spanish seafarms have increased during recent years. Due to the lack of intensive culture of these worms in Portugal and the proximity of southern Spanish farms, a large component of imported polychaetes that arrive in Portugal at Lisbon Airport go directly to Spain by road. In 2002 and 2003 a total of 12,728,379 and 16,866,839 polychaetes respectively were imported to Europe via Lisbon Airport from China and the USA. In 2003 the imports from China and the USA realised 716,180 and 291,845 US dollars respectively. Two species were reported to have been imported in these years, namely the Korean blue ragworm Perinereis aibuhitensis and the American bloodworm Glycera dibranchiata. Imports of non-indigenous species, which are traded and sold alive, may increase the risk of accidental introduction into the wild. This is of special concern as Perinereis aibuhitensis has been successfully reared in captivity within the range of environmental conditions existing in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon. Other risks associated with introduced species are the transport of foreign pathogens and other associated non-native organisms, which may act as carriers of disease.

  7. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  8. Modeling the marketing strategy-performance relationship : towards an hierarchical marketing performance framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Zengerink, Evelien

    2001-01-01

    Accurate measurement of marketing performance is an important topic for both marketing academics and marketing managers. Many researchers have recognized that marketing performance measurement should go beyond financial measurement. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework that models

  9. A model of the world uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trieu, L.H.; Savage, E.; Dwyer, G.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed and an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on the spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingly being reflected in contract agreements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this relationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be expected after 1993 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply entering from non-traditional market sources. (Author)

  10. MODEL OF MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS EFFECTIVENESS IN THE BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Jerman, Damjana; Završnik, Bruno

    2012-01-01

    Much of the research into marketing communications has focused on the consumer market with little regard to date for the business-to-business market. This paper focuses on a development and testing of a model of marketing communication effectiveness in the business-to-business market. Building on past research from the marketing communications and business-to-business marketing literature, the model (which incorporates facets of the marketing communication objectives, bidirectional communicat...

  11. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  12. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

    2014-04-15

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  13. Regression Models for Market-Shares

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Kristina; Olsen, Jørgen Kai; Tjur, Tue

    2005-01-01

    On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put on the interpretat......On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put...... on the interpretation of the parameters in relation to models for the total sales based on discrete choice models.Key words and phrases. MCI model, discrete choice model, market-shares, price elasitcity, regression model....

  14. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  15. Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Fred Espen Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics......, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained...

  16. Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno

  17. Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.

    2003-01-01

    For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)

  18. Marketing Model for Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahin, Jaime

    In order to survive projected enrollment decreases and to better serve nontraditional students, community colleges must develop marketing plans that make effective use of five community resources: local school system personnel, business and industry, civic and social service agencies, college personnel, and the local media. In approaching these…

  19. Quantitative models in marketing research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractRecent advances in data collection and data storage techniques enable marketing researchers to study the individual characteristics of a large range of transactions and purchases, in particular the effects of household-specific characteristics. This book presents the most important and

  20. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  1. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  2. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  3. Dynamic Model of Market with Uninformed Market Maker

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin; Kopa, Miloš

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 5 (2017), s. 922-958 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : market maker * optimal decision * price and inventory * high frequency data * dynamic model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://www.library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/smid-0483753.pdf

  4. Synthesised model of market orientation-business performance relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Nwokah

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation. While much empirical works have centered on market orientation, the generalisability of its impact on performance of the Food and Beverages organisations in the Nigeria context has been under-researched. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study adopted a triangulation methodology (quantitative and qualitative approach. Data was collected from key informants using a research instrument. Returned instruments were analyzed using nonparametric correlation through the use of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 10. Findings: The study validated the earlier instruments but did not find any strong association between market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context using the food and beverages organisations for the study. The reasons underlying the weak relationship between market orientation and business performance of the Food and Beverages organisations is government policies, new product development, diversification, innovation and devaluation of the Nigerian currency. One important finding of this study is that market orientation leads to business performance through some moderating variables. Implications: The study recommends that Nigerian Government should ensure a stable economy and make economic policies that will enhance existing business development in the country. Also, organisations should have performance measurement systems to detect the impact of investment on market orientation with the aim of knowing how the organisation works. Originality/Value: This study significantly refines the body of knowledge concerning the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation, and thereby offers a model of market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context for marketing scholars and practitioners. This model will, no doubt, contribute to the body of

  5. Outsourcing Market Research in Department of Defense Commodity Acquisition: The Issues, Concerns, and Private Industry Capabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Skubic, Michelle

    2001-01-01

    .... It examines the feasibility of outsourcing market research functions in this acquisition arena, focusing on which elements of market research would be most practicable to outsource, and what capacity...

  6. K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review. ... Modelling has become a visible tool in many disciplines including marketing and several marketing models have ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  7. A conceptual model of political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    2005-01-01

    . The remaining four constructs are attitudinal, designed to capture the awareness of members to the activities and importance of stakeholder groups in society, both internal and external to the organisation. The model not only allows the level of a party's political market orientation to be assessed, but also......This article proposes eight constructs of a conceptual model of political market orientation, taking inspiration from the business and political marketing literature. Four of the constructs are 'behavioural' in that they aim to describe the process of how information flows through the organisation...

  8. PARTICULARITIES CONCERNING THE CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MARKETING MIX IN PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Sica STANCIU

    2010-01-01

    The marketing mix is the essential instrument in implementing marketing in the public sector. This paper brings into evidence the particularities of conceiving, elaborating and applying the marketing mix in public institutions. The particularities of the marketing mix that is applied in public institutions are imposed, on one hand, by the role played by the public institution and the place it occupies in the contemporary society and, on the other hand, by the objectives it defines by its mark...

  9. Correcting for non-response bias in contingent valuation surveys concerning environmental non-market goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnichsen, Ole; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    2016-01-01

    Data collection for economic valuation by using Internet surveys and pre-recruited Internet panels can be associated with severe disadvantages. Problems concerning sample coverage and sample representativeness can be expected. Representation errors may occur since people can choose whether....... This paper analyses a sample used for an Internet contingent valuation method survey eliciting preferences for improvements in water quality of a river. We find that some variables that affect the survey participation decision also affect willingness-to-pay, consequently biasing our welfare estimates. We...... show how adjusting willingness-to-pay for this bias can be accomplished by using a grouped data model incorporating a correlation parameter to account for selection....

  10. The Displacement Effect of Labour-Market Programs: Estimates from the MONASH Model

    OpenAIRE

    Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer

    2005-01-01

    A key question concerning labour-market programs is the extent to which they generate jobs for their target group at the expense of others. This effect is measured by displacement percentages. We describe a version of the MONASH model designed to quantify the effects of labour-market programs. Our simulation results suggests that: (1) labour-market programs can generate significant long-run increases in employment; (2) displacement percentages depend on how a labour-market program affects the...

  11. An econometric model of the South African stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Moolman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically.  However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse.  This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination.  The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.

  12. Hydraulic root water uptake models: old concerns and new insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couvreur, V.; Carminati, A.; Rothfuss, Y.; Meunier, F.; Vanderborght, J.; Javaux, M.

    2014-12-01

    Root water uptake (RWU) affects underground water dynamics, with consequences on plant water availability and groundwater recharge. Even though hydrological and climate models are sensitive to RWU parameters, no consensus exists on the modelling of this process. Back in the 1940ies, Van Den Honert's catenary approach was the first to investigate the use of connected hydraulic resistances to describe water flow in whole plants. However concerns such as the necessary computing when architectures get complex made this approach premature. Now that computing power increased dramatically, hydraulic RWU models are gaining popularity, notably because they naturally produce observed processes like compensatory RWU and hydraulic redistribution. Yet major concerns remain. Some are more fundamental: according to hydraulic principles, plant water potential should equilibrate with soil water potential when the plant does not transpire, which is not a general observation when using current definitions of bulk or average soil water potential. Other concerns regard the validation process: water uptake distribution is not directly measurable, which makes it hard to demonstrate whether or not hydraulic models are more accurate than other models. Eventually parameterization concerns exist: root hydraulic properties are not easily measurable, and would even fluctuate on an hourly basis due to processes like aquaporin gating. While offering opportunities to validate hydraulic RWU models, newly developed observation techniques also make us realize the increasing complexity of processes involved in soil-plant hydrodynamics, such as the change of rhizosphere hydraulic properties with soil drying. Surprisingly, once implemented into hydraulic models, these processes do not necessarily translate into more complex emerging behavior at plant scale, and might justify the use of simplified representations of the soil-plant hydraulic system.

  13. Emergent organization in a model market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Avinash Chand; Manchanda, Kaustubh; Ramaswamy, Ramakrishna

    2017-09-01

    We study the collective behaviour of interacting agents in a simple model of market economics that was originally introduced by Nørrelykke and Bak. A general theoretical framework for interacting traders on an arbitrary network is presented, with the interaction consisting of buying (namely consumption) and selling (namely production) of commodities. Extremal dynamics is introduced by having the agent with least profit in the market readjust prices, causing the market to self-organize. In addition to examining this model market on regular lattices in two-dimensions, we also study the cases of random complex networks both with and without community structures. Fluctuations in an activity signal exhibit properties that are characteristic of avalanches observed in models of self-organized criticality, and these can be described by power-law distributions when the system is in the critical state.

  14. Power system models - A description of power markets and outline of market modelling in Wilmar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, P.; Morthors, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Weber, C.; Snader, K.; Swider, D.; Ravn, H.

    2003-12-01

    This report is Deliverable 3.2 of the Wilmar project. The report describes the power markets in the Nordic countries and Germany, together with the market models to be implemented in the Wilmar Planning model-ling tool developed in the project. (au)

  15. On the Use of Structural Equation Models in Marketing Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenkamp, J.E.B.M.; Baumgartner, H.

    2000-01-01

    We reflect on the role of structural equation modeling (SEM) in marketing modeling and managerial decision making. We discuss some benefits provided by SEM and alert marketing modelers to several recent developments in SEM in three areas: measurement analysis, analysis of cross-sectional data, and

  16. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  17. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  18. Role Model, Hero or Champion? Children's Views Concerning Role Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricheno, Patricia; Thornton, Mary

    2007-01-01

    Background: Claims that male role models can improve the behaviour and achievement of boys are familiar and persistent. However, research has not confirmed such a link; recent UK studies indicate that peers and relatives may be far more important to boys than their teachers. Given the seemingly relentless reference to male teachers as role models…

  19. The Lessons of the PFF Concerning the Job Market. Preparing Future Faculty. Occasional Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeNeef, A. Leigh

    This paper discusses the effectiveness of the Preparing Future Faculty (PFF) program in equipping graduate students for the realities of the academic job market. It reviews the experiences of Duke University (North Carolina) with the PFF program and the effect that PFF has had on preparing graduate students to enter the job market as new faculty.…

  20. THE BERTRAND MODEL OF THE SINGLE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadasan Ioana

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Starting with the signification of the rationality hypothesis when the agent’s contentment is directly affected by the other agents’ decisions, the theory of games defines solutions for solving different situations of conflict. The economic actors have different behaviours of the Single Market. Oligopoly strategic behaviours were analysed by the Bertrand model. The two types revealed in the work show that strategic interactions are sensitive to the companies’ features, products and markets. Regarding the situation when we have an oligopoly competition, the companies make interdependent decisions in the environment affected by risk and uncertainty of the Single Market. For this reason it is an opportunity to study the structure of oligopoly type of of the Single Market with the aid of non – cooperative games.

  1. Application of Markowitz Model on Romanian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zavera Ioana Coralia

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Performance evaluation of financial instruments has become a concern for more and more economists, while security trading activities have developed over time. “Modern portfolio theory” comprises statistical and mathematical models which describe various ways in order to evaluate and especially analyse profitability and risk of these portfolios. This article offers an application of this type of model on Romanian stock market, the Markowitz model, by focusing on portfolios comprising three securities, and determining the efficient frontier and the minimum variance portfolio.

  2. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  3. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  4. Modeling of market segmentation for new IT product development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasiopoulos, Dimitrios K.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Mavrogianni, Amanda

    2015-02-01

    Businesses from all Information Technology sectors use market segmentation[1] in their product development[2] and strategic planning[3]. Many studies have concluded that market segmentation is considered as the norm of modern marketing. With the rapid development of technology, customer needs are becoming increasingly diverse. These needs can no longer be satisfied by a mass marketing approach and follow one rule. IT Businesses can face with this diversity by pooling customers[4] with similar requirements and buying behavior and strength into segments. The result of the best choices about which segments are the most appropriate to serve can then be made, thus making the best of finite resources. Despite the attention which segmentation gathers and the resources that are invested in it, growing evidence suggests that businesses have problems operationalizing segmentation[5]. These problems take various forms. There may have been a rule that the segmentation process necessarily results in homogeneous groups of customers for whom appropriate marketing programs and procedures for dealing with them can be developed. Then the segmentation process, that a company follows, can fail. This increases concerns about what causes segmentation failure and how it might be overcome. To prevent the failure, we created a dynamic simulation model of market segmentation[6] based on the basic factors leading to this segmentation.

  5. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

  6. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M Wray

    Full Text Available Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space, and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space, numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock

  7. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the

  8. NEO-AMERICAN MARKET ECONOMY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiriţescu Dorel-Dumitru

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The American market economy system is the convergence point of two theoretical models: the neoclassic model (which excludes the state intervention and keynesist model (in which the state intervenes as decisional economic agent. the relaunch of American economy set off at the end of the last century in the same time with Ronald Reagan presidency and relies on a important financial and technological patrimony.

  9. Consumer Behaviour Model on the Furniture Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BEDNÁRIK, Éva

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces the furniture purchasing behaviour model. The study describes thebehaviour model and characteristics of decision making and the environmental factors affecting theindividuals besides emphasising the family character of furniture purchase. We introduce a chapterfrom the primary research verifying the model that analyses the validity of customer behaviour trendsdefined as elements of the impersonal environment on the furniture market. We touch on our lifestylebased segmentation model which is elaborated in our work in detail. The method of primary researchis quantitative, personal interview. While working out our research model we applied a method thatenables multi-level cross-section and cohort analyses. Our work has verified the need for trendresearches on the furniture market so we suggest the construction and the near-future launch of a trendresearch system consisting of several modules that reveals the specific factors on the furniture marketbesides verifying the validity of general behaviour trends.

  10. Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choustova, Olga Al.

    2007-01-01

    We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

  11. An adaptive stochastic model for financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernández, Juan Antonio; Benito, Rosa Marı´a; Losada, Juan Carlos

    2012-01-01

    An adaptive stochastic model is introduced to simulate the behavior of real asset markets. The model adapts itself by changing its parameters automatically on the basis of the recent historical data. The basic idea underlying the model is that a random variable uniformly distributed within an interval with variable extremes can replicate the histograms of asset returns. These extremes are calculated according to the arrival of new market information. This adaptive model is applied to the daily returns of three well-known indices: Ibex35, Dow Jones and Nikkei, for three complete years. The model reproduces the histograms of the studied indices as well as their autocorrelation structures. It produces the same fat tails and the same power laws, with exactly the same exponents, as in the real indices. In addition, the model shows a great adaptation capability, anticipating the volatility evolution and showing the same volatility clusters observed in the assets. This approach provides a novel way to model asset markets with internal dynamics which changes quickly with time, making it impossible to define a fixed model to fit the empirical observations.

  12. The Influence of Investor Number on a Microscopic Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellthaler, T.

    The stock market model of Levy, Persky, Solomon is simulated for much larger numbers of investors. While small markets can lead to realistically looking prices, the resulting prices of large markets oscillate smoothly in a semi-regular fashion.

  13. A marketing model: applications for dietetic professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, S C; Moody, D L

    1986-01-01

    Traditionally, dietitians have communicated the availability of their services to the "public at large." The expectation was that the public would respond favorably to nutrition programs simply because there was a consumer need for them. Recently, however, both societal and consumer needs have changed dramatically, making old communication strategies ineffective and obsolete. The marketing discipline has provided a new model and new decision-making tools for many health professionals to use to more effectively make their services known to multiple consumer groups. This article provides one such model as applied to the dietetic profession. The model explores a definition of the business of dietetics, how to conduct an analysis of the environment, and, finally, the use of both in the choice of new target markets. Further, the model discusses the major components of developing a marketing strategy that will help the practitioner to be competitive in the marketplace. Presented are strategies for defining and re-evaluating the mission of the profession, for using future trends to identify new markets and roles for the profession, and for developing services that make the profession more competitive by better meeting the needs of the consumer.

  14. Analysis of conditions concerning the natural gas internal market organization in four european countries: Germany, Spain, Netherlands and United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-02-01

    The aim of this economic study is the wording of a synthetic document for the public information in the framework of the 98/30/CE european directive transposition to the gas internal market. It is writing in four main chapters, one for each country concerned: the Germany, the Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Each one presents the historical context, the actors of the natural gas industry and the main provisions. (A.L.B.)

  15. Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Elina Bakhtieva

    2017-01-01

    The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap...

  16. Modelling Danish local CHP on market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Hans V.; Riisom, Jannik; Schaumburg-Müller, Camilla

    2004-01-01

    with the liberalisation process of the energy sectors of the EU countries, it is however anticipated that Danish local CHP are to begin operating on market conditions within the year 2005. This means that the income that the local CHPs previously gained from selling electricity at the feed-in tariff is replaced in part...... the consequences of acting in a liberalised market for a given CHP plant, based on the abovementioned bottom-up model. The key assumption determining the bottom line is the electricity spot price. The formation of the spot price in the Nordic area depends heavily upon the state of the water reservoirs in Norway...

  17. Netherlands: Dutch policy centres on marrying green concerns and market forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    This review of the Dutch energy policy covers the need for efficient use of their natural gas as a finite resource; natural gas reserves, production, and exports, refining in the Netherlands; Dutch oil production; the fragmented and decentralised electricity generation and supply sectors; and prospects for a single merged generating company. Multi service utilities, the White Paper focussing on energy efficiency, replacement of 10% of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources by the year 2020 and greater market orientation; and the liberalisation of the electricity market are discussed. (UK)

  18. Gas appliances in the domestic market - legal basis and questioning concerning the Directive for Gas Appliances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rienen, W. van

    1994-01-01

    Four years after the Directive for Gas Appliances has been passed by the European Community it shows the first effects on the market. Gas appliances bearing an CE label can prove that the EC-standardised demands are observed. Thus it can be demanded from every member state by law not to hinder a launch on the market and the initiation. The directive also effects the demands for national environmental protection. A new DVGW (Deutscher Verein des Gas und Wasserfaches e.V.) quality label for gas appliances is going to certify the observance of a quality level which exceeds the minimum EC level. (orig.) [de

  19. Model of Market Share Affected by Social Media Reputation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Akira; Kawahata, Yasuko; Goto, Ujo

    Proposal of market theory to put the effect of social media into account is presented in this paper. The standard market share model in economics is employed as a market theory and the effect of social media is considered quantitatively using the mathematical model for hit phenomena. Using this model, we can estimate the effect of social media in market share as a simple market model simulation using our proposed method.

  20. Limited Commitment Models of the Labour Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Thomas; Tim Worrall

    2007-01-01

    We present an overview of models of long-term self-enforcing labour con- tracts in which risk-sharing is the dominant motive for contractual solutions. A base model is developed which is sufficiently general to encompass the two-agent problem central to most of the literature, including variable hours. We consider two-sided limited commitment and look at its implications for aggregate labour market variables. We consider the implications for empirical testing and the available empirical evide...

  1. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

  2. Marketing communications model for innovation networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago João Freitas Correia

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Innovation is an increasingly relevant concept for the success of any organization, but it also represents a set of internal and external considerations, barriers and challenges to overcome. Along the concept of innovation, new paradigms emerge such as open innovation and co-creation that are simultaneously innovation modifiers and intensifiers in organizations, promoting organizational openness and stakeholder integration within the value creation process. Innovation networks composed by a multiplicity of agents in co-creative work perform as innovation mechanisms to face the increasingly complexity of products, services and markets. Technology, especially the Internet, is an enabler of all process among organizations supported by co-creative platforms for innovation. The definition of marketing communication strategies that promote motivation and involvement of all stakeholders in synergic creation and external promotion is the central aspect of this research. The implementation of the projects is performed by participative workshops with stakeholders from Madan Parque through IDEAS(REVOLUTION methodology and the operational model LinkUp parameterized for the project. The project is divided into the first part, the theoretical framework, and the second part where a model is developed for the marketing communication strategies that appeal to the Madan Parque case study. Keywords: Marketing Communication; Open Innovation, Technology; Innovation Networks; Incubator; Co-Creation.

  3. Modelling information dissemination under privacy concerns in social media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hui; Huang, Cheng; Lu, Rongxing; Li, Hui

    2016-05-01

    Social media has recently become an important platform for users to share news, express views, and post messages. However, due to user privacy preservation in social media, many privacy setting tools are employed, which inevitably change the patterns and dynamics of information dissemination. In this study, a general stochastic model using dynamic evolution equations was introduced to illustrate how privacy concerns impact the process of information dissemination. Extensive simulations and analyzes involving the privacy settings of general users, privileged users, and pure observers were conducted on real-world networks, and the results demonstrated that user privacy settings affect information differently. Finally, we also studied the process of information diffusion analytically and numerically with different privacy settings using two classic networks.

  4. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    OpenAIRE

    Gutić Dragutin; Rudelj Siniša

    2009-01-01

    Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introdu...

  5. Confidentiality Concerns Raised by DNA-Based Tests in the Market-Driven Managed Care Setting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotval, Jeroo S.

    2006-07-28

    In a policy climate where incentives to cherry pick are minimized, Managed Care Organizations can implement practices that safeguard medical privacy to the extent that data is protected from falling into the hands of third parties who could misuse it to discriminate. To the extent that these practices have been codified into the regulatory Network of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Consumers may be able to rest easy about their genetic data being revealed to third parties who may discriminate. However, there are limitations to the use of policy instruments to prevent the discrimination of an entire genre of clients by market driven managed care organizations. Policy measures, to assure that knowledge of genetic conditions and their future costs would not be used by market driven managed care organizations to implement institutional policies and products that would implicitly discriminate against a genre of clients with genetic conditions, present difficulties.

  6. Survey of Regulatory and Technological Developments Concerning Smart Metering in the European Union Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    VASCONCELOS, Jorge

    2008-01-01

    Smart metering is a crucial factor for the efficient functioning of the Internal Electricity Market, as well as for the successful implementation of European Union policies related to energy efficiency, renewable energy and security of supply. The report first outlines the potential benefits of smart meters for consumers, suppliers, metering companies, distribution network operators and public interest. Next the report provides a short overview of the legal framework governing metering activi...

  7. Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Wierenga, Berend

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of whether they could be solved with a known OR technique. The field of marketing models developed its own identity and became an important academic field (Wierenga 2008b). Somewhat later the term "marke...

  8. Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo

    2015-01-01

    The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

  9. Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Energy Economics

    2015-05-15

    The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

  10. On modelling the market for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiesen, Lars

    2001-12-01

    Several features may separately or in combination influence conduct and performance of an industry, e.g. the numbers of sellers or buyers, the degree of economies of scale in production and distribution, the temporal and spatial dimensions, etc. Our main focus is on how to model market power. In particular, we demonstrate the rather different solutions obtained from the price-taking behavior versus the oligopolistic Coumot behavior. We also consider two approaches to model the transportation of natural gas. Finally, there is a brief review of previous modeling efforts of the European natural gas industry. (author)

  11. Structure of an international concern in view of the future nuclear energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somm, E.

    1990-01-01

    The ABB concern for electro-technical products, which was formed when the Swedish Asea and the Swiss BBC merged, has made the provision of energy the purpose of its business. Part of its activities is the manufacture of power plants and delivery of components for such plants. Even if ABB was not able to sell any new nuclear energy plant last year, which by the way was successful, the concern is fully counting on nuclear energy as an environment friendly and safe source of energy which will cover our electric power needs for a long time to come. The concern has three reactors ready for use. They have been tested in 27 plants in Europe and the USA. The company itself will be financing the development of the next generation of reactors, always building on experience won in the past. In the meantime, to stay at the front in the nuclear energy field, ABB is successfully active in the field of servicing, up-dating and fuel delivery for plants in operation. The ABB concern, active worldwide, is able and prepared to plan and build new nuclear plants at any time. (author)

  12. Concepts and models. The common market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moraing, M.; Scholz, U.

    1993-01-01

    The discussion and debate concerning opening-up the European energy market to competition are complicated and difficult to sort out. The Council of Ministers rejected the EC Commission's proposals last November, and now the Commission is expected to produce new initiatives. This fall, the European Parliament will deliberate on a counter-proposal of its energy committee. The authors of the article, use the situation in Germany as a basis for an overview of the most important models currently being discusses. (orig.) [de

  13. Modeling of a green certificate market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchenko, O.V.

    2008-01-01

    The paper considers one of the economic mechanisms, stimulating the introduction of renewable energy sources (RES) - a green certificate market. A mathematical model was developed to describe a supply and demand balance in the electricity and green certificate markets simultaneously. The sellers of certificates are RES owners, who obtain certificates for each unit of electricity produced, and the buyers are consumers, who are obliged by law to buy a certain share of this electricity. Equilibrium structures of the power system including RES with stochastic operation conditions are calculated. The prices of electricity and certificates, as well as the total economic effect of the system are determined taking into account external costs (environmental damages). The paper shows that a mechanism of green certificates is not an ideal means for minimizing the impact of energy on the environment: the economic effect turns out to be smaller than the maximum possible one. However, this deviation is relatively small, therefore the green certificate market allows the external effects to be partially taken into account. Such a market creates incentives for investors, electricity producers and consumers to make power sources mix, modes of electricity production and consumption closer to the optimum ones in terms of the economy as a whole. (author)

  14. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanidou, E [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany); Zschischang, E [HSH Nord Bank, Portfolio Mngmt. and Inv., Martensdamm 6, D-24103 Kiel (Germany); Stauffer, D [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Koeln (Germany); Lux, T [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany)

    2007-03-15

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we

  15. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanidou, E.; Zschischang, E.; Stauffer, D.; Lux, T.

    2007-03-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  16. Agent-based models of financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanidou, E; Zschischang, E; Stauffer, D; Lux, T

    2007-01-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  17. Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of

  18. Clustering the Consumers According to Their Environmental Concern: A Study In the Turkish Market

    OpenAIRE

    Ahu Ergen; Filiz Bozkurt; Caner Giray

    2014-01-01

    The consumption of natural resources and environmental pollution is still one of our planets most serious problems. Accordingly, the number of consumers who are worried about diminishing natural resources is increasing rapidly. Knowing more about these consumers will give companies the opportunity to define their strategies appropriately. The objective of this study is to profile consumers regarding environmental concern and green buying behavior. Three distinct clusters are identified and th...

  19. Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

  20. Market Segmentation Using Bayesian Model Based Clustering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hattum, P.

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation deals with two basic problems in marketing, that are market segmentation, which is the grouping of persons who share common aspects, and market targeting, which is focusing your marketing efforts on one or more attractive market segments. For the grouping of persons who share

  1. Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Xiaolian

    2013-01-01

    Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

  2. Solar energy market penetration models - Science or number mysticism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, E. H., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The forecast market potential of a solar technology is an important factor determining its R&D funding. Since solar energy market penetration models are the method used to forecast market potential, they have a pivotal role in a solar technology's development. This paper critiques the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models. It is argued that the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.

  3. FORMATIVE AND REFLECTIVE MODELS IN MARKETING RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Ioana CIOBANU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Compliance with the construct validity criteria is necessary for the correct assessment of the research in terms of quality and for further development of the marketing models. The identification of formative and reflective constructs as well as the correct testing of their validity and reliability are important methodological steps for marketing research as described in this article. The first part defines the reflective and the formative constructs and highlighst their particularities by analysing the theoretical criteria that differentiate them. In the second part of the study aspects of validity and trust for the formative and reflective constructs are presented as well as some empirical considerations from research literature regarding their measurement.

  4. Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits...... of this model is the explicit ability to describe what the architecture is prepared for, and what it is not prepared for - concerning development of future derivative products. The model has been applied in a large scale global product development project. Among the most important benefits is contribution to...

  5. Documentation of the Uranium Market Model (UMM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The Uranium Market Model is used to make projections of activity in the US uranium mining and milling industry. The primary data sources were EIA, the Nuclear Assurance Corporation, and, to a lesser extent, Nuexco and Nuclear Resources International. The Uranium Market Model is a microeconomic simulation model in which uranium supplied by the mining and milling industry is provided to meet the demand for uranium by electric utilities with nuclear power plants. Uranium is measured on a U 3 O 8 (uranium oxide) equivalent basis. The model considers every major production center and utility on a worldwide basis (with Centrally Planned Economies considered in a limited way), and makes annual projections for each major uranium production and consumption region in the world. Typically, nine regions are used: the United States, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Other Africa, Europe, Latin America, the Far East, and Other. Production centers and utilities are identified as being in one of these regions. In general, the model can accommodate any user-provided set of regional definitions and data

  6. CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Burtnyak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

  7. European Commission Initiatives to Promote Social Concern on the Market: a Counterbalance to Fiscal Discipline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Gómez Urquijo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyse the significance of recent European Commission initiatives in the face of evidence of non-compliance with the social objectives targeted in the EU 2020 Strategy. In the midst of the ongoing debate regarding austerity and growth, we stress the need to further the EU trend toward differentiated growth-friendly fiscal consolidation. Given that “conditionality” is a new keystone of economic governance and cohesion policy, the difficulties that the Member States encounter and the diversity of their social protections give a new meaning to the European coordination policies that are intended to promote social cohesion. By analysing EU proposals and official documents, we will show how the Commission’s initiatives have introduced diverse elements that are intended to address the social consequences of the economic crisis and reveal how new ideas of growth and new ways to deepen the internal market have been promoted. We will also determine whether we can consider these ideas to be a valid response to current social challenges.

  8. Topical points of community policy concerning nuclear safety relevant to the Internal Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroeder, M.

    1991-01-01

    Starting with the Internal Market concept, the lecture describes general and specific expectations directed to the nuclear community from a point of view of nuclear safety, and analyzes those aspects of nuclear safety, EC policy focuses on. There are the following chapters: 1. Selection of sites for nuclear installations, 2. installation and reactor safety, 3. radioactive waste management, 4. decommissioning of nuclear installations, 5. radioactive waste storage, 6. coping with nuclear accidents and other radiological emergency situations. Sophistication of public health and environmental protection within the framework of the EURATOM Treaty is seen in connection with interim and final storage as well as reprocessing of radioactive waste, and with the decommissioning of nuclear facilities on the basis of section 30 ff., and installation and reactor safety on the basis of section 203 EURATOM Treaty. Improving the protection of public health in particular is possible and necessary in order to make the EURATOM community into a proper nuclear community of law. (orig./HSCH) [de

  9. Impact of a transient instability of the ecstasy market on health concerns and drug use patterns in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunt, Tibor M; Niesink, Raymond J M; van den Brink, Wim

    2012-03-01

    A recent decline in MDMA-like substances in ecstasy tablets has been reported by a number of countries in the European Union. This study describes the instability of the ecstasy market in The Netherlands during 2008 and 2009, and investigates whether this had any impact on drug testing or patterns of drug use. The health concerns of drug users handing in drug samples at drug testing facilities was measured using intervention time-series analysis. In addition, these ecstasy users were asked about changes in their drug use. Nationally, the unstable market situation for ecstasy has increased the number of users handing in ecstasy tablets for testing because of health concern. There was no change in the number of users handing in cocaine or gamma hydroxybutyrate (GHB). Respondents reported no major changes in their drug use resulting from the shortage of MDMA-like substances. These findings provide further insight in drug policy based on both harm reduction and use reduction. In the event of reduced ecstasy quality, ecstasy users in The Netherlands have increasingly used drug testing as a potential harm reduction tool, rather than changing their patterns of drug use. This might indicate that a transient reduction of drug quality does not serve as a good drug use reduction strategy for ecstasy users. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A model for marketing planning for new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1993-01-01

    awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development...... and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan....

  11. How Can Marketing Academics Serve Marketing Practice? The New Marketing DNA as a Model for Marketing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, Paul; Hulbert, Bev

    2011-01-01

    This article seeks to address how marketing academics can best serve marketing practice through marketing education. It is contended that, where technology is driving marketing in practice, it is afforded significantly less attention in both theory and education. Thus, the marketing graduates being produced from universities are often lacking in…

  12. Modeling of the influence of transparency of the derivatives market on financial depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Burdenko

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The market of derivative tools becomes an integral part of the financial market, the functions which are carrying out in it peculiar only to it: hedging, distribution of risks, ensuring liquidity of basic assets, information support of future movement of the prices, decrease in asymmetry of information in the financial markets. However, the insufficiency or lack of transparent information can lead to emergence of the crisis phenomena, shocks in the financial market and growth of system risk. Emergence of need for strengthening of information function of the market of derivatives changes of requirements to transparency of information had been caused by financial crisis of 2008-2009. In this article the attempt of an assessment of influence was made by means of autoregressive models the change of requirements to standard transparency, such as qualitative characteristic of the derivatives market, on quantitative indices of the financial market, in particular financial depth. The results of research demonstrate that reforming of the legislation concerning strengthening of transparency in the derivatives market positively influences the growth of financial depth. The research of this question will promote the best understanding of importance of reforming of regulation of the derivatives market, in particular strengthening of requirements to transparency. Recommendations of the further researches concern the needs of input of reforms of financial regulation in the derivatives market in Ukraine, and, thus, to provide the corresponding conditions for his development

  13. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav; Vosvrda, Miloslav

    2018-01-01

    We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized facts such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model utility from the other side and look for the combination of parameters which yields return dynamics of the efficient market in the view of the efficient market hypothesis. Working with the Ising model, we are able to present nicely interpretable results as the model is based on only two parameters. Apart from showing the results of our simulation study, we offer a new interpretation of the Ising model parameters via inverse temperature and entropy. We show that in fact market frictions (to a certain level) and herding behavior of the market participants do not go against market efficiency but what is more, they are needed for the markets to be efficient.

  14. SELECTED MODELS OF RAIL MARKETS IN THE CONTEXT OF LIBERALIZATION OF THE RAIL MARKET IN EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krystian Pietrzak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper author has made an attempt at presenting problems of the operation of European railway transport market against the background of changes taking place in the European Union transport market. These changes are the result of processes aimed at liberalizing the market. In addition, this article defines the conditions of reforms in the Eu-ropean rail market by highlighting various models of its functioning.

  15. Marketing Communications for Continuing Education: A Planning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicere, Albert A.

    1982-01-01

    This article presents a model for the formulation of marketing communications strategies geared both to efficiency in direct marketing efforts and effectiveness in the creation of individual program enrollments and institutional identity. (CT)

  16. Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria | Akarah ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria. ... that are influenced by the sports market mix and sports consumers that are influenced by psychological factors and notes that; ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  17. Gas analysis modeling system forecast for the Energy Modeling Forum North American Natural Gas Market Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariner-Volpe, B.; Trapmann, W.

    1989-01-01

    The Gas Analysis Modeling System is a large computer-based model for analyzing the complex US natural gas industry, including production, transportation, and consumption activities. The model was developed and first used in 1982 after the passage of the NGPA, which initiated a phased decontrol of most natural gas prices at the wellhead. The categorization of gas under the NGPA and the contractual nature of the natural gas market, which existed at the time, were primary factors in the development of the basic structure of the model. As laws and regulations concerning the natural gas market have changed, the model has evolved accordingly. Recent increases in competition in the wellhead market have also led to changes in the model. GAMS produces forecasts of natural gas production, consumption, and prices annually through 2010. It is an engineering-economic model that incorporates several different mathematical structures in order to represent the interaction of the key groups involved in the natural gas market. GAMS has separate supply and demand components that are equilibrated for each year of the forecast by means of a detailed transaction network

  18. Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

    2018-05-01

    In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

  19. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bistra Vassileva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

  20. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Bistra Vassileva; Miroslav Nikolov

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed concep...

  1. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  2. Outflow dynamics in modeling oligopoly markets: the case of the mobile telecommunications market in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał; Włoszczowska, Maja

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumer choice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level p \\in (0.3,0.4) . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment.

  3. Conceptual model innovation management: market orientation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.Ya. Maljuta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights issues that determine the beginning of the innovation process. Determined that until recently in Ukraine at all levels of innovation management (regional, sectoral, institutional dominated grocery orientation innovation that focus on production innovation and found that the transition to a market economy, the restructuring of production and complexity of social needs led to the strengthening of the consumer. It is proved that innovation itself – not the ultimate goal, but only a means of satisfying consumer needs. It proved that changing production conditions, complications of social needs and the need to improve the competitiveness of innovations require finding new forms of innovation. In this regard, proposed to allocate such basic scheme (model of innovation in small businesses, individual entrepreneurs, venture capital firms, eksplerents, patients, violents and commutants, spin-offs and spin-out company, network (or shell company and a network of small businesses.

  4. The 4s web-marketing mix model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Constantinides, Efthymios

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm,

  5. Models for the financial-performance effects of Marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanssens, D.M.; Dekimpe, Marnik; Wierenga, B.; van der Lans, R.

    We consider marketing-mix models that explicitly include financial performance criteria. These financial metrics are not only comparable across the marketing mix, they also relate well to investors’ evaluation of the firm. To that extent, we treat marketing as an investment in customer value

  6. Marketing for a Web-Based Master's Degree Program in Light of Marketing Mix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Cheng-Chang

    2012-01-01

    The marketing mix model was applied with a focus on Web media to re-strategize a Web-based Master's program in a southern state university in U.S. The program's existing marketing strategy was examined using the four components of the model: product, price, place, and promotion, in hopes to repackage the program (product) to prospective students…

  7. Potential conflict between TRIPS and GATT concerning parallel importation of drugs and possible solution to prevent undesirable market segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Chang-Fa

    2011-01-01

    From international perspective, parallel importation, especially with respect to drugs, has to do with the exhaustion principle in Article 6 of the TRIPS Agreement and the general exception in Article XX of the GATT 1994. Issues concerning the TRIPS Agreement have been constant topics of discussion. However, parallel importation in relation to the general rules of the GATT 1994 as well as to its exceptions provided in Article XX was not seriously discussed. In the view of the paper, there is a conflict between the provisions in these two agreements. The paper explains such conflict and tries to propose a method of interpretation to resolve the conflict between GATT Article XX and TRIPS Article 6 concerning parallel importation for the purpose of reducing the possible undesirable market segmentation in pharmaceutical sector. The method suggested in the paper is a proper application of good faith principle in the Vienna Convention to interpret GATT Article XX, so that there could be some flexibility for those prohibitions of parallel importation which have positive effect on international trade.

  8. Business models in commercial media markets: Bargaining, advertising, and mixing

    OpenAIRE

    Thöne, Miriam; Rasch, Alexander; Wenzel, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    We consider a product and a media market and show how a change in the business model employed by the media platforms affects consumers, producers (or advertisers), and price negotiations for advertisements. On both markets, two firms differentiated á la Hotelling compete for consumers. On the media market, consumers can mix between the two outlets whereas on the product market, consumers have to decide for one supplier. With pay-tv, as opposed to free-to-air, mixing by consumers disappears, p...

  9. The 4s web-marketing mix model

    OpenAIRE

    Constantinides, Efthymios

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm, is also a poor choice in the case of virtual marketing and identifies two main limitations of the framework in online environments: the drastically diminished role of the Ps and the lack of any st...

  10. Ising model of financial markets with many assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckrot, A.; Jurczyk, J.; Morgenstern, I.

    2016-11-01

    Many models of financial markets exist, but most of them simulate single asset markets. We study a multi asset Ising model of a financial market. Each agent has two possible actions (buy/sell) for every asset. The agents dynamically adjust their coupling coefficients according to past market returns and external news. This leads to fat tails and volatility clustering independent of the number of assets. We find that a separation of news into different channels leads to sector structures in the cross correlations, similar to those found in real markets.

  11. An Examination of Interactive Whiteboard Perceptions using the Concerns-Based Adoption Model Stages of Concern and the Apple Classrooms of Tomorrow Model of Instructional Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Jeffrey; Chamblee, Gregory; Slough, Scott

    2013-01-01

    Two high school mathematics teachers who use Interactive Whiteboards (IWBs) in the classroom were interviewed annually over the course of three years regarding their perceptions of the technology. During the third year, the two teachers were asked to complete the Concerns-Based Adoption Model Stages of Concern Questionnaire. The data obtained from…

  12. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1996-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  13. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  14. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  15. The Green Paper on the modernization of public procurement policy of the EU: Towards a socially-concerned market or towards a market-oriented society?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Losada Fraga

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Green Paper on the modernization of public procurement policy of the European Union launched a reflection on how such EU rules can contribute to fulfill the objectives proposed in the Europe 2020 strategy. This paper analyzes its proposals and identifies its inconsistencies. In particular, it is stressed how European integration has subverted the order of priorities in public procurement rules, upgrading the promotion of the free market to the top of the list. An economistic approach to the legal issue of public procurement seems to be the reason behind such reorganization of priorities. The conflict between political and economic rationalities, which underlies the Green Paper, gives rise to a number of questions, such as how targets other than free competition –mainly the social and environmental ones– shall be taken into account in public procurement; as well as to some proposals, for instance concerning the joint procurement by different administrations (in both the vertical and horizontal sense, and even encouraging a cross-border component, which seems to point to a reorganization of bureaucracy according to economic rationality. The paper, in a final step, aims at describing the (European social model that implicitly underlies these proposals. El Libro Verde sobre la modernización de la política de contratación pública de la Unión Europea propone una reflexión acerca de qué modo las normas comunitarias sobre la materia pueden contribuir a hacer realidad los objetivos propuestos en la estrategia Europa 2020. En este trabajo se analizan las propuestas recogidas en el Libro Verde y se identifican sus incoherencias. En particular se hace hincapié en cómo el proceso de integración europea ha alterado el orden de prioridades de las normas de contratación pública, elevando la promoción del libre mercado a la cúspide de las mismas. La razón de esa reorganización de prioridades parece radicar en la aplicación de un enfoque

  16. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule

  17. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.

  18. Impulse-response analysis of the market share attraction model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a simulation-based technique to calculate impulse-response functions and their confidence intervals in a market share attraction model [MCI]. As an MCI model implies a reduced form model for the logs of relative market shares, simulation techniques have to be used to obtain

  19. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  20. An agent model for the high-end gamers market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaansen, T.; Armbruster, H.D.; Kempf, K.; Li, H.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the driving forces in the markets of their products is a basic necessity for any business. Quantitative models are either aggregated over large market segments or restricted to utility models of an individual's buying decision. While the aggregate models acknowledge that customer

  1. MARKET EVALUATION MODEL: TOOL FORBUSINESS DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles Loarte, José; Yenque Dedios, Julio; Lavado Soto, Aurelio

    2014-01-01

    In the present work the concepts of potential market and global market are analyzed as the basis for strategic decisions of market with long term perspectives, when the implantation of a business in certain geographic area is evaluated. On this conceptual frame, the methodological tool is proposed to evaluate a commercial decision, for which it is taken as reference the case from the brewing industry in Peru, considering that this industry faces in the region entrepreneurial reorderings withi...

  2. From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

    2007-01-01

    Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

  3. From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

  4. An options model for electric power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Kanchan; Ramesh, V.C.

    1997-01-01

    The international electric utility industry is undergoing a radical transformation from an essentially regulated and monopolistic industry to an industry made uncertain with impending deregulation and the advent of competitive forces. This paper investigates the development of an options market for bulk power trading in a market setup while considering power system planning and operational constraints and/or requirements. In so doing it considers the different market based financial derivative instruments while can be used to trade electrical power in bulk and examines how established tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) may be applied in helping to develop a price for bulk power transactions under a market based setup. (Author)

  5. Development of a virtual power market model to investigate strategic and collusive behavior of market players

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, Miadreza; Parsa Moghaddam, Mohsen; Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohamad Kazem

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a virtual power market model is proposed to investigate the behavior of power market players from regulator's point of view. In this approach, strategic players are modeled in a multi-agent environment. These agents which are virtual representative of actual players forecast the prices and participate in the markets, exactly the same as real world situation. In addition, the role of ISO is encountered by using security constraint unit commitment (SCUC) and security constraint economic dispatch (SCED) solutions. Moreover, the interaction between market players is modeled using a heuristic dynamic game theory algorithm based on the supply function equilibria (SFE). In addition to the collusive behavior, using the proposed model, the short-term strategic behavior of players, which their effects will appear in long-term, can be simulated. The proposed model enables the market regulators to make decision before implementing new market rules with the confidence of their results. To represent the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study including wind power plants is considered and the impact of various market rules on players’ behavior is simulated and discussed. Numerical studies indicate that simulating the strategic and collusive behavior prior to any change in the market rules is necessary. - Highlights: • A virtual power market model is proposed using a heuristic dynamic game theory. • The proposed model can simulate the behavior of market players in a certain period. • This model can evaluate the oligopoly, collusive and strategic behavior of players. • The price uncertainty and security constraint are considered. • Neglecting strategic behavior of players can cause adverse consequences

  6. A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Linderhof, Vincent; Kuik, Onno; Kemfert, Claudia; Ostling, Robert; Heinzow, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight Northwestern European countries, namely Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Different market structures are compared, depending on the ability of firms to exercise market power, ranging from perfect competition without market power to strategic competition where large firms exercise market power. In addition, a market power reduction policy is studied where the near-monopolies in France and Belgium are demerged into smaller firms. To analyse environmental impacts, a fixed greenhouse gas emission reduction target is introduced under different market structures. The results indicate that the effects of liberalisation depend on the resulting market structure, but that a reduction in market power of large producers may be beneficial for both the consumer (i.e. lower prices) and the environment (i.e. lower greenhouse gas permit price and lower acidifying and smog emissions)

  7. A model for marketing planning of new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1994-01-01

    Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... incorporates a special model to explain consumer awareness of the new product. 3. Consumer awareness is explained by distribution (shelf facings and in-store promotion), advertising and giving away free samples. 4. The trial model incorporates the total market potential, the probability of being in a buying...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

  8. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  9. A complementarity model for the European natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egging, Ruud; Gabriel, Steven A.; Holz, Franziska; Zhuang, Jifang

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call 'traders', pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, liquefiers and regasifiers is modeled via optimization problems whose Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions in combination with market-clearing conditions form the complementarity system. The LNG tankers, marketers and consumption sectors are modeled implicitly via appropriate cost functions, aggregate demand curves, and ex post calculations, respectively. The model is run on several case studies that highlight its capabilities, including a simulation of a disruption of Russian supplies via Ukraine

  10. Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated

  11. An Experimental Model for Market Penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caren, William L.

    1987-01-01

    A plan for college market penetration that has been successful in increasing the applicant pool for one institution is outlined and discussed. It includes development of performance objectives, a schedule, a promotional plan, market survey, and promotional activities including alumni, media, and other community resources. (MSE)

  12. Applied Creativity: The Creative Marketing Breakthrough Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titus, Philip A.

    2007-01-01

    Despite the increasing importance of personal creativity in today's business environment, few conceptual creativity frameworks have been presented in the marketing education literature. The purpose of this article is to advance the integration of creativity instruction into marketing classrooms by presenting an applied creative marketing…

  13. 28 CFR 36.608 - Guidance concerning model codes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Section 36.608 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF DISABILITY BY PUBLIC ACCOMMODATIONS AND IN COMMERCIAL FACILITIES Certification of State Laws or Local Building... private entity responsible for developing a model code, the Assistant Attorney General may review the...

  14. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market; Analyse et modelisation des prix des produits petroliers combustibles en europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, V

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  15. A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turksen, I. B.; Willson, Ian A.

    1992-01-01

    Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share

  16. Electric market models, competitive model and alternative design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnedillo, O.

    2007-01-01

    Almost ten years after the liberalization of the Spanish electric system, its market design has remained basically unchanged. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider whether the current model continues to be adequate or whether it should be changed. However, although the current model is far from the absolute optimum, it is suited to the current state of the Spanish system. Only some improvements, such as the reform of the capacity guarantee payment can be undertaken immediately. It will only be possible to undertake other improvements as distribution companies cover all of their electricity needs in forward contracts acquired through a competitive process. (Author)

  17. A bargaining model of regulated markets' integration with an application to electricity supply market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Jingyuan; Smeers, Y.; Canon, E.

    1995-01-01

    An integrated market organized by regulated electric utilities is modelled. It is assumed that, given a price vector for the exchange of electricity between each pair of neighboring utilities, utilities independently maximize their own domestic social welfare subject to the zero profit constraint. An equilibrium price vector for exchanges among utilities is defined as the one which clears the exchanges for all pair of business partners. A single piecewise linear model is formulated for computing market equilibria. The model is used to simulate the electricity supply market organized by 11 western European countries

  18. A model problem concerning ionic transport in microstructured solid electrolytes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curto Sillamoni, Ignacio J.; Idiart, Martín I.

    2015-11-01

    We consider ionic transport by diffusion and migration through microstructured solid electrolytes. The assumed constitutive relations for the constituent phases follow from convex energy and dissipation potentials which guarantee thermodynamic consistency. The effective response is determined by homogenizing the relevant field equations via the notion ofmulti-scale convergence. The resulting homogenized response involves several effective tensors, but they all require the solution of just one standard conductivity problem over the representative volume element. A multi-scale model for semicrystalline polymer electrolytes with spherulitic morphologies is derived by applying the theory to a specific class of two-dimensional microgeometries for which the effective response can be computed exactly. An enriched model accounting for a random dispersion of filler particles with interphases is also derived. In both cases, explicit expressions for the effective material parameters are provided. The models are used to explore the effect of crystallinity and filler content on the overall response. Predictions support recent experimental observations on doped poly-ethylene-oxide systems which suggest that the anisotropic crystalline phase can actually support faster ion transport than the amorphous phase along certain directions dictated by the morphology of the polymeric chains. Predictions also support the viewpoint that ceramic fillers improve ionic conductivity and cation transport number via interphasial effects.

  19. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.; Pereira, Ivo F.; Fernandes, Ricardo; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Definition of an ontology allowing the communication between multi-agents systems. • Social welfare evaluation in different electricity markets. • Demonstration of the use of the proposed ontology between two multi-agents systems. • Strategic biding in electricity markets. • European electricity markets comparison. - Abstract: The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution

  20. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  1. A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Mason

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

  2. Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractMarket share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of

  3. Concerning modeling of double-stage water evaporation cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatskiy, V. P.; Fedulova, L. I.; Gridneva, I. V.

    2018-03-01

    The matter of need for setting technical norms for production, as well as acceptable microclimate parameters, such as temperature and humidity, at the work place, remains urgent. Use of certain units should be economically sound and that should be taken into account for construction, assembly, operation, technological, and environmental requirements. Water evaporation coolers are simple to maintain, environmentally friendly, and quite cheap, but the development of the most efficient solutions requires mathematical modeling of the heat and mass transfer processes that take place in them.

  4. Mathematical models in marketing a collection of abstracts

    CERN Document Server

    Funke, Ursula H

    1976-01-01

    Mathematical models can be classified in a number of ways, e.g., static and dynamic; deterministic and stochastic; linear and nonlinear; individual and aggregate; descriptive, predictive, and normative; according to the mathematical technique applied or according to the problem area in which they are used. In marketing, the level of sophistication of the mathe­ matical models varies considerably, so that a nurnber of models will be meaningful to a marketing specialist without an extensive mathematical background. To make it easier for the nontechnical user we have chosen to classify the models included in this collection according to the major marketing problem areas in which they are applied. Since the emphasis lies on mathematical models, we shall not as a rule present statistical models, flow chart models, computer models, or the empirical testing aspects of these theories. We have also excluded competitive bidding, inventory and transportation models since these areas do not form the core of ·the market...

  5. An illustration of the Arena model: Conflicts concerning nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.

    1991-01-01

    The author examines the current relevance of the debate on risk and presents a systematic survey of theoretical concepts of risk: Technical foundations, economic and psychological perspectives, sociological and cultural-anthropological perspectives as well as social mobilization and the arena model, arenas for settling conflicts being parliament, administrative institutions, the legal realm, the humanities and sciences, mass media etc. The arena model is illustrated using atomic energy as an example, whereby the following factors are taken into account: The political arena, the function of the normal authority, agents, the media as a medium for action and public opinion. Conclusion: Three elements are necessary for a rational and democratic policy for dealing with risks: Experts on the theoretical aspects of the issue must be consulted, the legitimate interests of those persons in the arena who are affected by the decision must be taken into acoount and a representative public opinion poll which determines whether the public is in favour of possible political options must be carried out, thus giving them the opportunity to participate in the decision-making procedure. The better a process is prestructured before such a participatory procedure is initiated, the more likely it is that acceptance and acceptability can be obtained. (orig./HSCH) [de

  6. The German power market. Data collection for model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munksgaard, J.; Alsted Pedersen, K.; Ramskov, J.

    2000-09-01

    In the present project the market scenario for analysing market imperfections has been the Northern European power market, i.e. a market including Germany as well. Consequently, one of the tasks in the project has been to collect data for Germany in order to develop the empirical basis of the ELEPHANT model. In that perspective the aim of this report is to document the data collected for Gemany, to specify the data sources used and further to lay stress on the assumptions which have been made when data have not been available. By doing so, transparency in model results is improved. Further, a basis for discussing the quality of data as well as a framework for future revisions and updating of data have been established. The data collected for Germany have been given by the exogenous variables defined by the ELEPHANT model. In that way data collection is a priori given by the specification of the model. The model includes more than 30 exogenous variables specified at a very detailed level. These variables include among others data on energy demand, detailed power production data and data on energy taxes and CO{sub 2} emission targets. This points to the fact that many kinds of data sources have been used. However, due to lack of data sources not all relevant data have been collected. One area in which lack of data has been significant is demand reactions to changes in energy prices, i.e. the different kinds of demand elasticities used in the production and consumer utility functions in the model. Concerning elasticities for German demand reactions no data sources have been available at all. Another area of data problems is combined heat and power production (so-called CHP production), in which only very aggregated data have been available. Lack of data or poor quality of data (e.g., data not up to date or data not detailed enough) has led to the use of appropriate assumptions and short cuts in order to establish the entire data basis for the model. We describe the

  7. The German power market. Data collection for model analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munksgaard, J.; Alsted Pedersen, K.; Ramskov, J.

    2000-09-01

    In the present project the market scenario for analysing market imperfections has been the Northern European power market, i.e. a market including Germany as well. Consequently, one of the tasks in the project has been to collect data for Germany in order to develop the empirical basis of the ELEPHANT model. In that perspective the aim of this report is to document the data collected for Gemany, to specify the data sources used and further to lay stress on the assumptions which have been made when data have not been available. By doing so, transparency in model results is improved. Further, a basis for discussing the quality of data as well as a framework for future revisions and updating of data have been established. The data collected for Germany have been given by the exogenous variables defined by the ELEPHANT model. In that way data collection is a priori given by the specification of the model. The model includes more than 30 exogenous variables specified at a very detailed level. These variables include among others data on energy demand, detailed power production data and data on energy taxes and CO 2 emission targets. This points to the fact that many kinds of data sources have been used. However, due to lack of data sources not all relevant data have been collected. One area in which lack of data has been significant is demand reactions to changes in energy prices, i.e. the different kinds of demand elasticities used in the production and consumer utility functions in the model. Concerning elasticities for German demand reactions no data sources have been available at all. Another area of data problems is combined heat and power production (so-called CHP production), in which only very aggregated data have been available. Lack of data or poor quality of data (e.g., data not up to date or data not detailed enough) has led to the use of appropriate assumptions and short cuts in order to establish the entire data basis for the model. We describe the

  8. Demand Side Management in an Integrated Electricity Market: What are the Impacts on Generation and Environmental Concerns?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergaentzle, Claire; Clastres, Cedric

    2013-05-01

    Smart Grid technology appears necessary to succeed in activating the demand through demand side management (DSM) programs. This would in turn improve energy efficiency and achieve environmental targets through controlled consumption. The many pilot projects led worldwide involving smart grids technology, brought quantitative evaluations of DSM measures on electricity load. Efficient DSM instruments must be fine-tuned to respond to very specific issues arising from the generation mix, the integration of intermittent energies or the level of outage risks faced during peak period. Efficient DSM strategies are illustrated through a model involving five countries that carry these different features and under the assumptions of isolated and fully interconnected markets. This paper aims at bringing recommendations regarding the instruments that should be implemented to maximize the benefits of smart grids technology and demand response. Finally, it tends to emphasis the issue of homogenized energy efficiency policies, critical in the building of internal energy markets such as the one the European Union is envisioning. (authors)

  9. Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim; Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    2015-01-01

    This book presents the works and research findings of physicists, economists, mathematicians, statisticians, and financial engineers who have undertaken data-driven modelling of market dynamics and other empirical studies in the field of Econophysics. During recent decades, the financial market landscape has changed dramatically with the deregulation of markets and the growing complexity of products. The ever-increasing speed and decreasing costs of computational power and networks have led to the emergence of huge databases. The availability of these data should permit the development of models that are better founded empirically, and econophysicists have accordingly been advocating that one should rely primarily on the empirical observations in order to construct models and validate them. The recent turmoil in financial markets and the 2008 crash appear to offer a strong rationale for new models and approaches. The Econophysics community accordingly has an important future role to play in market modelling....

  10. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbes, Carsten; Friege, Christian

    2015-01-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [de

  11. Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

    2016-11-01

    Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

  12. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies; Marketing Erneuerbarer Energien. Grundlagen, Geschaeftsmodelle, Fallbeispiele

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbes, Carsten [HfWU Nuertingen-Geislingen, Nuertingen (Germany); Friege, Christian (ed.)

    2015-07-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [German] Wie vermarktet man Oekostrom oder Biomethan? Was ist der richtige Preis fuer Erneuerbare Energien und wie gestaltet man den optimalen Einsatz von Social Media? Welche Auswirkungen haben das EEG oder die Elektromobilitaet auf das Gruenstrom-Marketing? Funktioniert Direktvertrieb oder ist Online-Marketing der Erfolgsgarant? Antworten auf diese und viele weitere grundlegende Fragen liefert dieser Band mit Beitraegen fuehrender Wissenschaftler und renommierter Praktiker. Erstmals beschreiben sie hier in strukturierter Form die Grundlagen der Vermarktung von Erneuerbaren Energien, fuehren in die gesetzlichen und marktlichen Besonderheiten ein und stellen neue Geschaeftsmodelle vor. Das Buch fusst auf aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen, behandelt saemtliche fuer Praktiker wichtige Fragen der Vermarktung, liefert Fallbeispiele und konkrete Empfehlungen.

  13. Family characteristics and health behaviour as antecedents of school nurses' concerns about adolescents' health and development: a path model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poutiainen, Hannele; Levälahti, Esko; Hakulinen-Viitanen, Tuovi; Laatikainen, Tiina

    2015-05-01

    Family socio-economic factors and parents' health behaviours have been shown to have an impact on the health and well-being of children and adolescents. Family characteristics have also been associated with school nurses' concerns, which arose during health examinations, about children's and adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development. Parental smoking has also been associated with smoking in adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine to what extent school nurses' concerns about adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development related to family characteristics are mediated through parents' and adolescents' own health behaviours (smoking). A path model approach using cross-sectional data was used. In 2008-2009, information about health and well-being of adolescents was gathered at health examinations of the Children's Health Monitoring Study. Altogether 1006 eighth and ninth grade pupils in Finland participated in the study. The associations between family characteristics, smoking among parents and adolescents and school nurses' concerns about adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development were examined using a structural equation model. Paternal education had a direct, and, through fathers' and boys' smoking, an indirect association with school nurses' concerns about the physical health of boys. Paternal labour market status and family income were only indirectly associated with concerns about the physical health of boys by having an effect on boys' smoking through paternal smoking, and a further indirect effect on concerns about boys' health. In girls, only having a single mother was strongly associated with school nurses' concerns about psychosocial development through maternal and adolescent girl smoking. Socio-economic family characteristics and parental smoking influence adolescent smoking and are associated with school nurses' concerns about adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development. The findings

  14. Using Marketing Capability Maturity Model to Measure Marketing Processes at Iran Transfo Corporation

    OpenAIRE

    Arman Ahmadizad; Seyyed Mojtaba Akhavan Hejazi; Amirhossein Sabourtinat

    2011-01-01

    Abstract In this study marketing maturity model has been used in Iran Transfo Corporation. For this purpose, the five levels process maturity model has been applied. The statistical population includes managers, supervisors and experts of marketing and sales at Iran Transfo Corporation and due to its small size, the entire population has been studied as the sample of research. 11 questionnaires have been used for data collection its validity has been confirmed by content validity analysis ...

  15. Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

    2003-01-01

    Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

  16. Photovoltaic subsystem marketing and distribution model: programming manual. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-07-01

    Complete documentation of the marketing and distribution (M and D) computer model is provided. The purpose is to estimate the costs of selling and transporting photovoltaic solar energy products from the manufacturer to the final customer. The model adjusts for the inflation and regional differences in marketing and distribution costs. The model consists of three major components: the marketing submodel, the distribution submodel, and the financial submodel. The computer program is explained including the input requirements, output reports, subprograms and operating environment. The program specifications discuss maintaining the validity of the data and potential improvements. An example for a photovoltaic concentrator collector demonstrates the application of the model.

  17. A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

  18. Commuter Effects on Local Labour Markets: A German Modelling Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russo, G.; Tedeschi, F.; Reggiani, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper offers an exploratory investigation of the effects of inbound commuter flows on employment in regional labour markets in Germany. For this purpose, the paper distinguishes three main channels that may transmit the effects concerned: a crowding-out mechanism and two labour demand

  19. What moves the European carbon market? Insights from conditional jump models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gronwald, Marc; Ketterer, Janina [Munich Univ. (Germany). Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

    2012-04-15

    This paper is concerned with carbon price volatility and the underlying causes of large price movements in the European emissions trading market. Based on the application of a combined jump-GARCH model the behavior of EUA prices is characterized. The jump- GARCH model explains the unsteady carbon price movement well and, moreover, shows that between 40 and 60 percent of the carbon price variance are triggered by jumps. Information regarding EUA supply and news from international carbon markets are identified as important drivers of these price spikes. These results can lead regulators the way if smoother carbon prices are desired.

  20. Oops! Many Marketing Models are Wrong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Mesly

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Muchos modelos de ¿marketing¿ que se encuentran en revistas científicas contienen errores de modelado. Este fenómeno ha sido observado desde hace más de treinta años, pero poco se ha hecho para corregir la situación. A fin de evitar señalar autores particulares, se discutirá un ejemplo que se encuentra en los periódicos. Formas apropiadas de los modelos son meticulosamente explicadas y se proporcionan ejemplos de enfoques adecuados de unos autores de ¿marketing¿. El objetivo de este trabajo, no es despectivo sobre la literatura del ¿marketing, más bien es un esfuerzo por rectificar la forma en que la experimentación se hace y se explica.

  1. Electricity market liberalisation - the German model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.

    2002-01-01

    This article discusses the experience gained as a result of the opening of the German electricity market - not only from the national but also from European and international points of view. The history of electricity market liberalisation in Germany is described and the market's structure is compared with that of Switzerland. Both the advantages and disadvantages that have been brought about by liberalisation are discussed as well as the role of state regulation. Certain problem areas still to be tackled are discussed, such those in the areas of cartels, possibilities of supplier-change and tariffs. Also, liberalisation in the context of the European Union's efforts in this area are discussed, especially with respect to the consideration of differing structures in the various member countries of the Union

  2. A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lise, W.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Kuik, O.; Kemfert, C.; Ostling, R.; Heinzow, T.

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight

  3. Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hui

    This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have

  4. Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

    1979-01-01

    An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

  5. Engineering approach to model and compute electric power markets settlements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, J.; Petrov, V.

    2006-01-01

    Back-office accounting settlement activities are an important part of market operations in Independent System Operator (ISO) organizations. A potential way to measure ISO market design correctness is to analyze how well market price signals create incentives or penalties for creating an efficient market to achieve market design goals. Market settlement rules are an important tool for implementing price signals which are fed back to participants via the settlement activities of the ISO. ISO's are currently faced with the challenge of high volumes of data resulting from the increasing size of markets and ever-changing market designs, as well as the growing complexity of wholesale energy settlement business rules. This paper analyzed the problem and presented a practical engineering solution using an approach based on mathematical formulation and modeling of large scale calculations. The paper also presented critical comments on various differences in settlement design approaches to electrical power market design, as well as further areas of development. The paper provided a brief introduction to the wholesale energy market settlement systems and discussed problem formulation. An actual settlement implementation framework and discussion of the results and conclusions were also presented. It was concluded that a proper engineering approach to this domain can yield satisfying results by formalizing wholesale energy settlements. Significant improvements were observed in the initial preparation phase, scoping and effort estimation, implementation and testing. 5 refs., 2 figs

  6. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

  7. NETWORK BASED BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION TARGETING THE BOP MARKET

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Jacob; Kroghstrup Nielsen, Martin; Lindgren, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Through innovation of products, process and business models targeting the needs of 4 billion poor people living at "the base of pyramid" (BoP) (Prahalad & Hart 2002) in developing countries the private sector can actively support poverty alleviation and at the same time reach new untouched market....... - A market is estimated a value of 5.3 trillion US$ (Hammond, Kramer, Tran, Kratz 2007). A number of researchers has dealt with the BoP - market potential and not least tried to understand how to penetrate this apparent blue ocean. Two distinct lines of thought when targeting BoP markets in developing...... & Halme 2008). The market and customer line - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoPline - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoP market through product adaptation selling soap in smaller packages (Hart & Christensen 2002, Prahalad 2006). Based on the case study...

  8. The Interval Stability of an Electricity Market Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijuan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined with the electric power market dynamic model put forward by Alvarado, an interval model of electricity markets is established and investigated in this paper pertaining to the range of demand elasticity with suppliers and consumers. The stability of an electricity market framework with demand elasticity interval is analyzed. The conclusions characterizing the interval model provided are derived by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function and using the theory of interval dynamical system in differential equations and matrix inequality theory and so forth. Applying the corollary obtained can judge the system stability by available data about demand elasticity. The obtained results are validated and illustrated by a case example.

  9. Modeling large data sets in marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balasubramanian, S; Gupta, S; Kamakura, W; Wedel, M

    In the last two decades, marketing databases have grown significantly in terms of size and richness of available information. The analysis of these databases raises several information-related and statistical issues. We aim at providing an overview of a selection of issues related to the analysis of

  10. Structural versus behavioral remedies in the deregulation of electricity markets: an experimental investigation motivated by policy concerns

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    van Koten, Silvester; Ortmann, A.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 64, November (2013), s. 256-265 ISSN 0014-2921 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542; GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0364 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : European electricity markets * economics experiments * forward markets Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.364, year: 2013

  11. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  12. Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models

    CERN Document Server

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.

  13. Termination of Dynamic Contracts in an Equilibrium Labor Market Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Cheng

    2005-01-01

    I construct an equilibrium model of the labor market where workers and firms enter into dyamic contracts that can potentially last forever, but are subject to optimal terminations. Upon a termination, the firm hires a new worker, and the worker who is terminated receives a termination compensation from the firm and is then free to go back to the labor market to seek new employment opportunities and enter into new dynamic contracts. The model permits only two types of equilibrium terminations ...

  14. Power system models - A description of power markets and outline of market modelling in Wilmar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meibom, Peter; Morthorst, Poul Erik; Nielsen, Lars Henrik

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the Wilmar project is to investigate technical and economical problems related to large-scale deployment of renewable sources and to develop a modelling tool that can handle system simulations for a larger geographical region with anInternational power exchange. Wilmar is an abbreviati...... description of the power market models usedin Wilmar is given in the second part, though the mathematical presentations of the models are left out of this report and will be treated in a later publication from the project.......The aim of the Wilmar project is to investigate technical and economical problems related to large-scale deployment of renewable sources and to develop a modelling tool that can handle system simulations for a larger geographical region with anInternational power exchange. Wilmar is an abbreviation...... of “Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets”. The project was started in 2002 and is funded by the EU’s 5th Research programme on energy and environment. Risø National Laboratory isco-ordinator of the project and partners include SINTEF, Kungliga Tekniska Högskola, University of Stuttgart...

  15. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

  16. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  17. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  18. Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

  19. Real and financial interacting markets: A behavioral macro-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a model in which the real sector and the stock market interact. •In the stock market there are optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists. •We detect the mechanisms through which instabilities get transmitted between markets. •In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”. •We show the effects of increasing the interaction degree between the two markets. -- Abstract: In the present paper we propose a model in which the real side of the economy, described via a Keynesian good market approach, interacts with the stock market with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists, that respectively overestimate and underestimate the reference value due to a belief bias. Agents may switch between optimism and pessimism according to which behavior is more profitable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first contribution considering both real and financial interacting markets and an evolutionary selection process for which an analytical study is performed. Indeed, employing analytical and numerical tools, we detect the mechanisms and the channels through which the stability of the isolated real and financial sectors leads to instability for the two interacting markets. In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”, which allows us to study the complete three-dimensional system by decomposing it into two subsystems, i.e., the isolated financial and real markets, easier to analyze, that are then linked through a parameter describing the interaction degree between the two markets. We derive the stability conditions both for the isolated markets and for the whole system with interacting markets. Next, we show how to apply the interaction degree approach to our model. Among the various scenarios we are led to analyze, the most interesting one is that in which the isolated markets are stable, but their interaction is destabilizing

  20. MODEL ОF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR TRANSFORMATION AS A BASIS FOR MARKETING STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.Savelyev

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article concerns with the basic consumer segments. The consumer needs are analyzed in the article and the model of change in consumer behavior is created. The article proposes the recommendations on effective strategic actions in order to competitive capacity increase. It is determined that in low purchasing power conditions, focus on meeting the needs of loyal customer segments will allow companies to increase the competitiveness of the market supply. Adaptation of marketing strategy in low purchasing power conditions is a creative process in which success is based on the orientation of the changed consumption motives.

  1. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for viral marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Siti Suhaila; Akil, Ku Azlina Ku; Chulan, Majdah; Sharif, Noorzila

    2017-11-01

    Viral marketing is a marketing strategy utilizes social media to spread information about a product or services provided. It is the most powerful way to share information in a short amount of time. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic of viral marketing within a time duration in the point of view of mathematics. This study used the epidemiological model known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). The model consists of a system of three differential equations with three state variables namely susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). It considers a case of SIR model with demography. Numerical experiments have been performed. The results show that viral marketing reaches its peak within two days. The online messages shared will become higher if the initial number of the infected individual has been increased.

  2. Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Oliveira, Fernando S.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we seek to develop some model-based insights into this two-stage dynamic process linking market interventions with individual company performance through strategic asset trading and structural change. Essentially, this is achieved with an evolutionary, agent-based, computational model that is capable of simulating how a Cournot player, by interacting with his opponents, can rationally adapt his generation portfolio in order to increase value. The functional capabilities of the proposed computational approach facilitate: 1) The study of asset portfolio adaptation as a result of rational choice. This cannot be achieved with a static Cournot model that, by construction, does not take into account endogenously the rational choice of the installed capacities and technologies used by the players. Further, this evolutionary computational model internalizes the ''path dependencies'' as one of the determinants of portfolio adaptation. 2) The analysis of market structure as an endogenous co-evolutionary process, enabling an adaptive view of the impact of short-term regulatory policies on the evolution of the industry's market structure. 3) The analysis of the behavioural implications f the rational adaptation of players to regulatory interventions. This analysis is carried-out by modelling how players trade their assets in order to improve the value of their portfolio. Our model therefore incorporates two main components: a plant trading game and an electricity market game. The plant trading game simulates the interaction between electricity companies that trade generation plants. The electricity market game simulates the performance of portfolios of plant in an electricity market assuming Cournot players. From this two-stage modelling platform, we analyze two sorts of anti-trust interventions: (a) the ''structural changes'' of enforced divestiture and (b) the ''behavioural remedies'' (sic Competition commission) of capacity availability requirements. We have

  3. Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

    A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

  4. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  5. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  6. Models of Students' Thinking Concerning the Greenhouse Effect and Teaching Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koulaidis, Vasilis; Christidou, Vasilia

    1999-01-01

    Primary school students (n=40) ages 11 and 12 years were interviewed concerning their conceptions of the greenhouse effect. Analysis of the data led to the formation of seven distinct models of thinking regarding this phenomenon. (Author/CCM)

  7. Why Brazil Needed a New Market Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, Mario Veiga; Rosenblatt, Jose; Barroso, Luiz Augusto

    2005-06-01

    This paper discusses how the issue of supply adequacy is treated in the Brazilian power market, analyzing lessons learned from past experiences and describing the solutions that are being implemented to reconcile competition in generation with an adequate supply. The primary goal of the initial reform process is Brazil was to ensure sufficient capacity and investment to serve reliably the country's growing economy. This work discusses the difficulties that were identified in its design in terms of supply reliability and the proposals and reforms introduced by two governments to correct them and to implement a design that reconciles competition in generation with a guarantee of adequate supply. It is shown that, due to the high influence of hydroelectric power, Brazilian spot prices do not provide clear economic signals for system expansion, which in turn make bilateral contracts a key element in the market design. Another difficulty that must be addressed is the need to provide adequate expansion in an environment where there is high uncertainty on demand growth levels

  8. Retail gentrification. Staged spaces and the gourmet market model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz de Lourdes Cordero Gómez del Campo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Retail gentrification is understood as a process in which commercial activity is transformed to meet the needs of a sector of the population with higher incomes resulting in the displacement of merchants and products, seen from the implementation of the model of the gourmet market. This process, which is seen in the interest of copying the commercial formats of successful cases from gourmet markets such as the San Miguel Market in Madrid or the Borough Market in London, is linked to an offer aimed at satisfying consumption demands produced by a sector of the population that although not being equivalent concepts, different authors identify as cultural omnivores or creative class, coinciding in that these groups have a high cultural and economic capital. In the present work it is discussed how in Mexico City in the absence of the transformation of public markets into gourmet markets and with the inauguration of the Roma Market in 2014, the staging of commercial spaces labeled as gourmet markets has intensified and they are inserted in neighborhoods where they seek to generate development and links with the community, but because of their prices and the characteristics of the products they offer, they are beyond the reach of the local population.

  9. Microeconomics of the ideal gas like market models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabarti, Anindya S.; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

    2009-10-01

    We develop a framework based on microeconomic theory from which the ideal gas like market models can be addressed. A kinetic exchange model based on that framework is proposed and its distributional features have been studied by considering its moments. Next, we derive the moments of the CC model (Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 167) as well. Some precise solutions are obtained which conform with the solutions obtained earlier. Finally, an output market is introduced with global price determination in the model with some necessary modifications.

  10. A dynamic marketing model with best reply and inertia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bischi, Gian Italo; Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we consider a nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Farris et al. (2005) as a market share attraction model with two firms that decide marketing efforts over time according to best reply strategies with naïve expectations. The model also considers an adaptive adjustment toward best reply, a form of inertia or anchoring attitude, and we investigate the effects of heterogeneities among firms. A rich scenario of local and global bifurcations is obtained even with just two competing firms, and a comparison is proposed with apparently similar duopoly models based on repeated best reply dynamics with naïve expectations and adaptive adjustment.

  11. Modelling of hydro and wind power in the regulation market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiviluoma, J.; Holttinen, H.; Meibom, P.

    2006-01-01

    The amount of required regulation capacity in the power system is affected by the wind power prediction errors. A model has been developed which can evaluate the monetary effects of prediction errors. The model can be used to evaluate (1) the regulation costs of wind power, (2) regulation market prices including effects related to the participation of power producers in the regulating power market, (3) value of accurate wind forecasts and (4) the effect of decreasing the length of the spot market clearance. This article discusses the problems related to developing a realistic model of the regulating power market including the interaction between the spot market and the regulating power market. There are several issues that make things complicated. (1) How to calculate the minimum amount of needed secondary (minute) reserves. Traditionally the Nordic TSOs have used an N-1 criteria in each country to determine the required amounts of positive secondary reserve, but as installed wind power capacity grows, it will become relevant to include the wind power prediction errors in the estimation of secondary reserves. (2) Consumption forecast errors and plant outages also contribute to activation of regulating power and should have stochastic input series besides wind power. (3) Risk premiums and transaction costs in the regulating power market are difficult to estimate as well as the effects of the possible use of market power. This is especially true in the Nordic system with the high share of hydro power, since the water value and hydrological limitations make things more complex than in a thermal system. (4) The available regulation capacity is not necessarily equal to the truly available capacity. All producers don't participate in the regulation market although in principle they could. (orig.)

  12. The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-11-06

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.

  13. Neural Networks Modelling of Municipal Real Estate Market Rent Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muczyński Andrzej

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on the application of neural networks modelling of municipal real estate market rent rates. The test procedure was based on selected networks trained on the local real estate market data and transformation of the detected dependencies – through established models – to estimate the potential market rent rates of municipal premises. On this basis, the assessment of the adequacy of the actual market rent rates of municipal properties was made. Empirical research was conducted on the local real estate market of the city of Olsztyn in Poland. In order to describe the phenomenon of market rent rates formation an unidirectional three-layer network and a network of radial base was selected. Analyses showed a relatively low degree of convergence of the actual municipal rent rents with potential market rent rates. This degree was strongly varied depending on the type of business ran on the property and its’ social and economic impact. The applied research methodology and the obtained results can be used in order to rationalize municipal property management, including the activation of rental policy.

  14. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia; Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom

    2010-01-01

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  15. Vertical integration and market power. A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration. (author)

  16. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W., E-mail: dbunn@london.ed [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  17. Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference performed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to the parameter estimation of the GARCH model. It is found that volatility determined by the GARCH model exhibits ''volatility clustering'' also observed in the real financial markets. Using volatility determined by the GARCH model we examine the mixture-of-distribution hypothesis (MDH) suggested for the asset return dynamics. We find that the returns standardized by volatility are approximately standard normal random variables. Moreover we find that the absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation. These findings are consistent with the view of the MDH for the return dynamics

  18. On Transaction-Cost Models in Continuous-Time Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Poufinas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs, built in certain recommended ways, have to be paid. Markets prove to behave in manners that resemble those of complete ones for a wide variety of transaction-cost types. The results are important, but not exclusively, for the pricing of options with transaction costs.

  19. An auction game model for pool-based electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gan, Deqiang; Wang, Jianquan; Bourcier, Donald V.

    2005-01-01

    A single-period auction game model for analyzing strategic behavior in pool-based electricity markets is introduced in the paper. We study the Nash equilibrium in a pure strategy sense of such games. First an equilibrium existence lemma is proved. Equilibrium characterization under tight capacity constraints is provided. Then it is demonstrated that an auction game does not possess a pure strategy Nash equilibrium under a wide range of market conditions. The paper provides a characterization of equilibrium under weak capacity constraints. We apply the introduced results to analyze market power indices presented in our earlier work and in related reports. Applications to actual market analysis, as well as limitations of the introduced model are provided. (author)

  20. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  1. Modeling financial markets by self-organized criticality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2015-10-01

    We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative pressure on market participants, showing how the spreading of information, based on a realistic imitative behavior, drives contagion and causes market fragility. In this model imitation is not intended as a change in the agent's group of origin, but is referred only to the price formation process. We introduce in the community also a variable number of random traders in order to study their possible beneficial role in stabilizing the market, as found in other studies. Finally, we also suggest some counterintuitive policy strategies able to dampen fluctuations by means of a partial reduction of information.

  2. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  3. Symmetry breaking in a bull and bear financial market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sushko, Iryna; Tramontana, Fabio; Westerhoff, Frank; Avrutin, Viktor

    2015-01-01

    We investigate bifurcation structures in the parameter space of a one-dimensional piecewise linear map with two discontinuity points. This map describes endogenous bull and bear market dynamics arising from a simple asset-pricing model. An important feature of our model is that some speculators only enter the market if the price is sufficiently distant to its fundamental value. Our analysis starts with the investigation of a particular case in which the map is symmetric with respect to the origin, associated with equal market entry thresholds in the bull and bear market. We then generalize our analysis by exploring how novel bifurcation structures may emerge when the map’s symmetry is broken.

  4. Inclusion of Switching Behaviour into Relationship Marketing Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alnaimi, Husam; Jones, Richard; Perkins, Helen

    2011-01-01

    Relationship marketing authors have attempted to develop distinct models suitable for investigating relationship marketing in different contexts. However, there is no agreement as yet about the antecedents that best capture the characteristics of the relational exchange that influences relationship...... marketing. Maintaining a long-term relationship with a customer is one of the fundamental factors determining the value that the customer provides to the company. A serious threat to achieving a long-term relationship is the customer’s switching behaviour. This study develops a theoretical model...... of relationship marketing, which includes customers’ switching behaviour (switchers and stayers), as a vital construct to understand the relationship development process between customers and service providers. Also, hypotheses to specify the association between the underlying models’ constructs were presented...

  5. The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinemann, Ronald

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

  6. Self-regulation and the response to concerns about food and beverage marketing to children in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilde, Parke

    2009-03-01

    The Institute of Medicine reported in 2005 that food and beverage marketing to children and youth is "out of balance with healthful diets". The dominant policy response in the United States has been to encourage self-regulation by the food, beverage, advertising, and media industries. From a nutrition perspective, this deference to the private sector may seem surprising. This article reviews current economic and legal perspectives on food marketing to children that are motivating the policy decision to attempt a period of self-regulation. The empirical literature on this topic has been reinvigorated by new data on marketing practices and expenditures. The article concludes by considering whether more directive policies are possible in the future.

  7. Comparing Neural Networks and ARMA Models in Artificial Stock Market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krtek, Jiří; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 53-65 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : neural networks * vector ARMA * artificial market Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/krtek-comparing neural networks and arma models in artificial stock market.pdf

  8. Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sunghae Jun

    2011-01-01

    Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning) strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy m...

  9. An Aristotelian Model for Ethical Higher Education Marketing: The Role of Practical Wisdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Paul

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the concerns for a distinct ethics for marketers of higher education. It argues that higher education retains a difference for both product and service and that unfettered marketing can influence and then manipulate the underlying edifying offering.

  10. Methods of Modelling Marketing Activity on Software Sales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashirov Islam H.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article studies a topical issue of development of methods of modelling marketing activity on software sales for achievement of efficient functioning of an enterprise. On the basis of analysis of the market type for the studied CloudLinux OS product, the article identifies the market structure type: monopolistic competition. To ensure the information basis of the marketing activity in the target market segment, the article offers the survey method. The article provides a questionnaire, which contains specific questions regarding the studied market segment of hosting services, for an online survey with the help of the Survio service. In accordance with the system approach the CloudLinux OS has properties of systems, namely, diversity. Economic differences are non-price indicators that have no numeric expression and are quality descriptions. Analysis of the market and the conducted survey allow obtaining them. Combination of price and non-price indicators provides a complete description of the product properties. To calculate an integral indicator of competitiveness the article offers to apply a model, which is based on the direct algebraic addition of weight measures of individual indicators, regulation of formalised indicators and use of the mechanism of fuzzy sets for identification of non-formalised indicators. The calculated indicator allows not only assessment of the current level of competitiveness, but also identification of influence of changes of various indicators, which allows increase of efficiency of marketing decisions. Also, having identified the target customers of hosting OS and formalised non-price parameters, it is possible to conduct the search for a set of optimal characteristics of the product. In the result an optimal strategy of the product advancement to the market is formed.

  11. Theory and model use in social marketing health interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luca, Nadina Raluca; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    The existing literature suggests that theories and models can serve as valuable frameworks for the design and evaluation of health interventions. However, evidence on the use of theories and models in social marketing interventions is sparse. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify to what extent papers about social marketing health interventions report using theory, which theories are most commonly used, and how theory was used. A systematic search was conducted for articles that reported social marketing interventions for the prevention or management of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, HIV, STDs, and tobacco use, and behaviors related to reproductive health, physical activity, nutrition, and smoking cessation. Articles were published in English, after 1990, reported an evaluation, and met the 6 social marketing benchmarks criteria (behavior change, consumer research, segmentation and targeting, exchange, competition and marketing mix). Twenty-four articles, describing 17 interventions, met the inclusion criteria. Of these 17 interventions, 8 reported using theory and 7 stated how it was used. The transtheoretical model/stages of change was used more often than other theories. Findings highlight an ongoing lack of use or underreporting of the use of theory in social marketing campaigns and reinforce the call to action for applying and reporting theory to guide and evaluate interventions.

  12. The modelling of education services and labour markets from marketing position

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savchenko Sergii Olegovych

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The methodology of decision preparation was created and implemented. It is based on imitational modeling of cooperation between education and labor markets. The constant increasing of information volume, its dependence on external environment state and internal organization was also included into the methodology. The main aim is increasing of effectiveness of the system of higher education institution management.

  13. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  14. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  15. Advanced Modeling of Renewable Energy Market Dynamics: May 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, M.; Little, R.; Lloyd, K.; Malikov, G.; Passolt, G.; Arent, D.; Swezey, B.; Mosey, G.

    2007-08-01

    This report documents a year-long academic project, presenting selected techniques for analysis of market growth, penetration, and forecasting applicable to renewable energy technologies. Existing mathematical models were modified to incorporate the effects of fiscal policies and were evaluated using available data. The modifications were made based on research and classification of current mathematical models used for predicting market penetration. An analysis of the results was carried out, based on available data. MATLAB versions of existing and new models were developed for research and policy analysis.

  16. Simulation based decision support for strategic communication and marketing management concerning the consumer introduction of smart energy meters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Sanden, M.C.A.; Van Dam, K.H.; Stragier, J.; Kobus, C.B.A.

    2013-01-01

    Communication and marketing professionals make strategic decisions in highly complex and dynamic contexts. These decisions are highly uncertain on the outcome and process level when, for example, consumer behaviour is at stake. Decision support systems can provide insights in these levels of

  17. A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

  18. The Interval Market Model in Mathematical Finance : Game Theoretic Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernhard, P.; Engwerda, J.C.; Roorda, B.; Schumacher, J.M.; Kolokoltsov, V.; Saint-Pierre, P.; Aubin, J.P.

    2013-01-01

    Toward the late 1990s, several research groups independently began developing new, related theories in mathematical finance. These theories did away with the standard stochastic geometric diffusion “Samuelson” market model (also known as the Black-Scholes model because it is used in that most famous

  19. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  20. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.; Teichmann, Josef; Wolfram, Marie Therese

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present

  1. Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2003-06-01

    We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

  2. Electricity market reforms: Institutional developments, investment dynamics and game modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineau, Pierre-Olivier

    advanced to support market reforms and an industry view of the actual strategic actions undertaken by important utilities. Legislative changes will be reviewed for different countries with a discussion on the assessment procedures for these reforms. A detailed example of the reform process in the Finnish electricity market is presented. The investment issue will emerge as an interesting challenge to focus on, due to its importance for the market. The second approach is more analytical and develops on the market equilibria that could result from the new structure. A dynamic model of investment for the electricity market is built and applied to the Finnish market. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

  3. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo

    2015-01-01

    The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators...... have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models......, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform...

  4. IS CAPM AN EFFICIENT MODEL? ADVANCED VERSUS EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian IHNATOV

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available CAPM is one of the financial models most widely used by the investors all over the world for analyzing the correlation between risk and return, being considered a milestone in financial literature. However, in recently years it has been criticized for the unrealistic assumptions it is based on and for the fact that the expected returns it forecasts are wrong. The aim of this paper is to test statistically CAPM for a set of shares listed on New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Warsaw Stock Exchange and Bucharest Stock Exchange (developed markets vs. emerging markets and to compare the expected returns resulted from CAPM with the actually returns. Thereby, we intend to verify whether the model is verified for Central and Eastern Europe capital market, mostly dominated by Poland, and whether the Polish and Romanian stock market index may faithfully be represented as market portfolios. Moreover, we intend to make a comparison between the results for Poland and Romania. After carrying out the analysis, the results confirm that the CAPM is statistically verified for all three capital markets, but it fails to correctly forecast the expected returns. This means that the investors can take wrong investments, bringing large loses to them.

  5. Recommendations concerning models and parameters best suited to breeder reactor environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Baes, C.F. III; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1980-05-01

    Recommendations are presented concerning the models and parameters best suited for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases to the environment by breeder reactor facilities. These recommendations are based on the model and parameter evaluations performed during this project to date. Seven different areas are covered in separate sections

  6. Market Competitiveness Evaluation of Mechanical Equipment with a Pairwise Comparisons Hierarchical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Fujun

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides a description of how market competitiveness evaluations concerning mechanical equipment can be made in the context of multi-criteria decision environments. It is assumed that, when we are evaluating the market competitiveness, there are limited number of candidates with some required qualifications, and the alternatives will be pairwise compared on a ratio scale. The qualifications are depicted as criteria in hierarchical structure. A hierarchical decision model called PCbHDM was used in this study based on an analysis of its desirable traits. Illustration and comparison shows that the PCbHDM provides a convenient and effective tool for evaluating the market competitiveness of mechanical equipment. The researchers and practitioners might use findings of this paper in application of PCbHDM.

  7. Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

  8. Model instruments of effective segmentation of the fast food market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mityaeva Tetyana L.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article presents results of optimisation step-type calculations of economic effectiveness of promotion of fast food with consideration of key parameters of assessment of efficiency of the marketing strategy of segmentation. The article justifies development of a mathematical model on the bases of 3D-presentations and three-dimensional system of management variables. The modern applied mathematical packages allow formation not only of one-dimensional and two-dimensional arrays and analyse links of variables, but also of three-dimensional, besides, the more links and parameters are taken into account, the more adequate and adaptive are results of modelling and, as a result, more informative and strategically valuable. The article shows modelling possibilities that allow taking into account strategies and reactions on formation of the marketing strategy under conditions of entering the fast food market segments.

  9. Models of Customer Behavior as a Basis of Marketing Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T A Ivanova

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of six main models of customer behavior in contemporary society and the specific tasks of marketing departments of companies at today's stage of development. The given models take into consideration: motives for choosing a product, the degree of product awareness and independence of choice, the degree of customer satisfaction with the product, lines and possibilities of making an impact on customer choice through marketing and promotion stimulation. The author believes that these models may serve as a basis in the formation of effective marketing strategies, as they describe the customers in all the stages of their actions in the process of buying products, accumulating and analyzing the experience of using them.

  10. An empirical and model study on automobile market in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ji-Ying; Qiu, Rong; Zhou, Yueping; He, Da-Ren

    2006-03-01

    We have done an empirical investigation on automobile market in Taiwan including the development of the possession rate of the companies in the market from 1979 to 2003, the development of the largest possession rate, and so on. A dynamic model for describing the competition between the companies is suggested based on the empirical study. In the model each company is given a long-term competition factor (such as technology, capital and scale) and a short-term competition factor (such as management, service and advertisement). Then the companies play games in order to obtain more possession rate in the market under certain rules. Numerical simulation based on the model display a competition developing process, which qualitatively and quantitatively agree with our empirical investigation results.

  11. Comparison of two uranium-market forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleistein, S.; Recek, J.

    1983-01-01

    The techniques and methodologies, similarities and differences, and the results of two uranium market computer models - the Uranium Supply Analysis System and the EUREKA model - are surveyed. These models can be of use to electric utilities in developing procurement strategies or planning new reactor requirements. The models are designed to simulate actual market performance of the domestic uranium industry under varying user-specified assumptions. These models provide output in the form of projections of variables of interest, such as investment in exploration and new production capacity, additions to reserves and resources, and adjustments in inventories. Comparison between the models is demonstrative of how output can vary even with use of the same input data. Utilities may profit by the comparison with respect to the task of selecting models on the basis of obtaining the most-useful solution for a given problem. 18 figures

  12. Modelling categorical data to identify factors influencing concern for the natural environment in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parizanganeh, Abdolhossein; Lakhan, V Chris; Yazdani, Mahmoud; Ahmad, Sajid R

    2011-10-01

    Loglinear modelling techniques were used to identify the interactions and interrelationships underlying categorical environmental concern data collected from 9062 respondents in Iran. After fitting various loglinear models to the data, the most parsimonious model highlighted that a combination of interacting factors, namely educational attainment, age, gender, and residential location were responsible for influencing personal concern for the environment. Although high educational attainment had a close correspondence with high concern for the environment the loglinear results, when visualized with a geographical information system, demonstrated wide spatial variations in educational attainment and concern for the environment. Nearly two-thirds of the respondents were not highly educated, and were therefore not highly concerned for the environment. The finding that both rural and urban male and female respondents in the 15-24 years age category, with 10-12 years of education, had the strongest interaction with personal concern for the environment could be beneficial for policy planners to utilize education as the primary instrument to enhance environmental governance and prospects for sustainable development. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Investigating Effective Components of Higher Education Marketing and Providing a Marketing Model for Iranian Private Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmaee, Roya Babaee; Nadi, Mohammad Ali; Shahtalebi, Badri

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study and identify the effective components of higher education marketing and providing a marketing model for Iranian higher education private sector institutions. Design/methodology/approach: This study is a qualitative research. For identifying the effective components of higher education marketing and…

  14. DEVELOPING A SEVEN METAPHORS MODEL OF MARKETING FOR UNIVERSITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COITA Dorin-Cristian

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The concept of marketing applied in education offers a lot of possibilities of social innovation. It is a tool helping educational organization to acquire resources and to provide value. In this article presented a model of seven metaphors to be used by a universities in order to acquire resources and to provide value to its stakeholders and applied it in the case of a Romanian university called The University. The aim of the paper is to identify sources of social innovations by using this model in the field of educational marketing.

  15. A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Nazos, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Stochastic MILP model for the optimal energy planning of a power system. •Power market dynamics (offers/bids) are incorporated in the proposed model. •Monte Carlo method for capturing the uncertainty of some key parameters. •Analytical supply cost composition per power producer and activity. •Clean dark and spark spreads are calculated for each power unit. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.

  16. The wood pellet market in Austria: A structural market model analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristöfel, Christa; Strasser, Christoph; Schmid, Erwin; Morawetz, Ulrich B.

    2016-01-01

    EU bioenergy policies and oil price hikes have resulted in a significant increase of installed pellet boilers for residential heating. Hence, European demand for wood pellets has been growing faster and more steadily than supply leading to rising market prices in recent years. This article presents an econometric analysis of demand and supply of wood pellets in the residential heating sector in Austria, one of the most dynamic markets for residential pellets. Annual and monthly time series data between 2000 and 2014 are used in a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression to estimate supply and demand elasticities of wood pellets. In all model specifications, pellets demand is found to be inelastic (from −0.66 to −0.76) and pellets supply unit-elastic (from 1.03 to 1.18). Thus, consumers are highly exposed to price changes resulting from supply shocks. Policies which support investments in pellet boilers will shift the demand of wood pellets and likely leading to higher prices for consumers. - Highlights: • Characterisation of the European pellet market. • A structural market model for wood pellets in Austria. • Estimation of supply and demand price elasticities using a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression. • Pellets demand is found to be inelastic and pellets supply unit-elastic in the short run. • Policies stimulating demand will likely increase pellet and sawmill by-product prices.

  17. Evolutionary thinking in microeconomic models: prestige bias and market bubbles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Viliami Bell

    Full Text Available Evolutionary models broadly support a number of social learning strategies likely important in economic behavior. Using a simple model of price dynamics, I show how prestige bias, or copying of famed (and likely successful individuals, influences price equilibria and investor disposition in a way that exacerbates or creates market bubbles. I discuss how integrating the social learning and demographic forces important in cultural evolution with economic models provides a fruitful line of inquiry into real-world behavior.

  18. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  19. Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

    CERN Document Server

    Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

  20. A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

    2017-02-01

    A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

  1. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  2. Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    There is not enough marketing of dentistry; but there certainly is too much selling of poor quality service that is being passed off as dentistry. The marketing concept makes the patient and the patients' needs the ultimate criteria of marketing efforts. Myths and good practices for effective marketing that will promote oral health are described under the traditional four "Ps" categories of "product" (best dental care), "place" (availability), "promotion" (advertising and other forms of making patients aware of available services and how to use them), and "price" (the total cost to patients of receiving care).

  3. Heterarcical market: Dynamical interplay between time and space in the continuous interaction in a market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, Kazuto; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio; Kinoshita, Tetsuo

    2017-07-01

    Multi-agent models of robust open systems such as natural systems are the important theme in the literature of systems science. Heterarchy, which means dynamical hierarchy, is a structural model, which includes the dynamical interplay between different levels. However, it is not easy to build a formal model of a heterarchical system because the interplay between different levels lead a self-referential paradox. In this paper, we propose an continuous double auction model, which includes a formal model of conitnuous transaction. We encode the model into a restriction rule of the order submittion. The proposed model shows a critical behavior of the actual markets, and it can have the relationship with the behaviors of natural systems.

  4. Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ooteghem, Jan; Tesch, Tom; Verbrugge, Sofie; Ackaert, Ann; Colle, Didier; Pickavet, Mario; Demeester, Piet

    In order to address the increasing costs of providing care to the growing group of elderly, efficiency gains through eCare solutions seem an obvious solution. Unfortunately not many techno-economic business models to evaluate the return of these investments are available. The construction of a business case for care for the elderly as they move through different levels of dependency and the effect of introducing an eCare service, is the intended application of the model. The simulation model presented in this paper allows for modeling evolution of market shares of competing care providers. Four tiers are defined, based on the dependency level of the elderly, for which the market shares are determined. The model takes into account available capacity of the different care providers, in- and outflow distribution between tiers and churn between providers within tiers.

  5. A Hybrid Setarx Model for Spikes in Tight Electricity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Lucheroni

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses a simple looking but highly nonlinear regime-switching, self-excited threshold model for hourly electricity prices in continuous and discrete time. The regime structure of the model is linked to organizational features of the market. In continuous time, the model can include spikes without using jumps, by defining stochastic orbits. In passing from continuous time to discrete time, the stochastic orbits survive discretization and can be identified again as spikes. A calibration technique suitable for the discrete version of this model, which does not need deseasonalization or spike filtering, is developed, tested and applied to market data. The discussion of the properties of the model uses phase-space analysis, an approach uncommon in econometrics. (original abstract

  6. A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, Ofir D., E-mail: rubino@agri.huji.ac.i [Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Babcock, Bruce A., E-mail: babcock@iastate.ed [Department of Economics, Iowa State University, 578F Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States)

    2011-05-15

    The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: {yields} The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. {yields} Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. {yields} Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. {yields} It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. {yields} Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

  7. A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: → The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. → Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. → Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. → It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. → Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

  8. Models and Practice of Retail Location on the Romanian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard Cazabat,

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes a review of the main types of location, respectively of probability models, gravity models, utility models, location- allocation, but also of new spatial analysis instruments. In this context, we emphasize the fact that the new location models, based on a geographic information system and the Big Data analysis instruments, open new opportunities for the practical location decision based on a larger set of criteria and by taking the market dynamics into account. The paper has the following objectives: to study the theoretical basis of location models, i.e. of the criteria (the variables used and to compare them with the criteria used currently in decision-making practice. The study is based on qualitative research investigating the opinions of decision -makers in the area of distribution regarding the location strategy of new stores. The research findings confirm the existence of differences between the criteria retained by location models and the practice of distribution companies on the Romanian market. This type of approach – models and practices of location for distribution companies – is a novelty for the Romanian market. The study can be useful both for research (perfecting the location models vis-a-vis present-day evolutions of the business environment, as well as for the decision makers in distribution (the valorization of research findings in decisionmaking practice.

  9. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 54, č. 1 (2017), s. 148-155 ISSN 1007-5704 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Ising model * Efficient market hypothesis * Monte Carlo simulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.784, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kristoufek-0474986.pdf

  10. OPINI AUDIT GOING CONCERN: KAJIAN BERDASARKAN MODEL PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN, PERTUMBUHAN PERUSAHAAN, LEVERAGE, DAN REPUTASI AUDITOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ARRY PRATAMA RUDYAWAN

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The cases of accounting data manipulation that involve big firms, such as Enron and WorldCom, have affected auditor reputation. Enron and 95 other firms received unqualified opinion in the year prior to bankruptcy. This fact raises questions why firms receiving unqualified opinion stop operating. The assessment of going concern has to be delivered by auditor and added into audit opinion.  An auditor is responsible to evaluate whether there is substantial doubt about the entity’s ability to continue its operation for a reasonable period of time. This research aims to investigate the effect of bankruptcy prediction model, firm growth, leverage, and auditor reputation on going concern audit opinion. The result shows that bankruptcy prediction model affects the accuracy of going concern opinion issue. However, the firm growth, leverage, and auditor reputation do not do so.

  11. An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1979-01-01

    A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

  12. A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leda D. Minkova

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.

  13. Systemic Modelling for Relating Labour Market to Vocational Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papakitsos, Evangelos C.

    2016-01-01

    The present study introduces a systemic model that demonstrates a description of the relationship between the labour-market and vocational education from the perspective of systemic theory. Based on the application of the relevant methodology, the two open social systems are identified and analyzed. Their key-features are presented and the points…

  14. A risk reserve model for hedging in incomplete markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minina, V.; Vellekoop, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to the pricing and hedging problem for contingent claims in incomplete markets. We assume that traders wish to maximize the expected final payoff of the hedging portfolio and the claims, and we avoid the use of utility functions. Instead, we model how traders are

  15. Supplier choice and WTP for electricity attributes in an emerging market: The role of perceived past experience, environmental concern and energy saving behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amador, Francisco Javier; González, Rosa Marina; Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier

    2013-01-01

    This study analyzes customers' preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for certain service attributes in an electricity supplier choice context. Specifically, a stated preference choice experiment is conducted in the Canary Islands' residential market where limited competition exists. Preferences for different electricity suppliers and three level-of-service attributes are investigated, namely, supply reliability, share of renewable energies and availability of a complementary energy audit service. The results might be interpreted as an indication of different aspects new firms need to consider if they plan to enter in the market. There is an opportunity for new companies to establish in the market, though evidence of brand loyalty to the current company and/or significant switching costs are also found, especially in the case of older people. Regarding the estimated WTP, several results should be highlighted. First, customers who have experienced more serious outages in the past tend to show a higher WTP to reduce the outage frequency. Second, highly-educated respondents, those who state a great concern for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and those who carry out energy saving actions in their homes exhibit a larger WTP for renewable energies. This empirical evidence provides useful information for authorities responsible for energy policy design. - Highlights: • A stated choice experiment is conducted in the Canary Islands' residential market. • Serious outages in the past lead to a higher WTP to reduce the outage frequency. • A higher education level explains a greater WTP for renewables. • People concerned for emissions and energy savers show greater WTP for renewables. • These findings provide useful information for energy policy design

  16. System Dynamics Modeling of the Massachusetts SREC Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rickerson

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available As states across the country struggle to increase local development of renewable energy, policymakers are turning to innovative program designs to meet their renewable electricity targets. Massachusetts recently adopted a unique, auction-based price support mechanism for the solar portion of its renewable portfolio standard. During the program development process, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER used system dynamics to simulate potential solar renewable energy certificate market conditions under the proposed regulations. The modeling exercise resulted in several program design changes that will lead to a more stable certificate market. System dynamics can be a useful tool for developing and improving sustainability programs.

  17. Equation-based model for the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O C; Atman, A P F; de Magalhães, A R Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  18. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains......: Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains......, decision makers exhibit overlap in their views of what drives their business. The pork chain appears dominated by a focus on efficiency, technology, and quality control, though it also acknowledges communication as important. The salmon chain places more emphasis on new product development and good...

  19. Equation-based model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  20. STUDY REGARDING THE ASSETS EVALUATION ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET THROUGH THE C.A.P.M. MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Baltes

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM was introduced through the works of William Sharpe (1964, John Lintner (1965 and Jan Mossin (1966 based on the research of Henry Markovitz. Due to the independent formulation of the model by these three american researchers, there are in the literature references to the Security Market Line (SML model of financial assets evaluation. CAPM model, revolutionized the financial theory, highlighting the link between the rentability of the individual securities and the rentability of the financial market. The first fundamental hypothesis of the model is that investors are concerned about the expected rentability closely related to the risk associated with it. Consequently, under equilibrium conditions of the financial market, the CAPM model highlights a linear relationship between the expected rentability of the portfolio and the amount of risk assumed by investors.

  1. A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.

  2. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.

    2016-10-04

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.

  3. Multi-Level Marketing as a business model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Gregor

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi Level Marketing is a very popular business model in the Western countries. It is a kind of hybrid of the method of distribution of goods and the method of building a sales network. It is one of the safest (carries a very low risk ways of conducting a business activity. The knowledge about functioning of this business model, both among theoreticians (scanty literature on the subject and practitioners, is still insufficient in Poland. Thus, the presented paper has been prepared as — in the Authors' opinion — it, at least infinitesimally, bridges the gap in the recognition of Multi Level Marketing issues. The aim of the study was, first of all, to describe Multi Level Marketing, to indicate practical benefits of this business model as well as to present basic systems of calculating a commission, which are used in marketing plans of companies. The discussion was based on the study of literature and the knowledge gained in the course of free-form interviews with the leaders of the sector.

  4. A multidirectional communication model: implications for social marketing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thackeray, Rosemary; Neiger, Brad L

    2009-04-01

    The landscape of sending and receiving information has changed dramatically in the past 25 years. The communication process is changing from being unidirectional to multidirectional as consumers are becoming active participants by creating, seeking, and sharing information using a variety of channels and devices. The purpose of this article is to describe how this shift in the communication process- where gatekeepers control the creation and content of information and consumers are less active recipients to one that reflects a multidirectional and more dynamic process with participative consumers-will affect the social marketing process. This shift in communication does not represent an option for social marketers so much as a necessity. As professionals respond to this evolving communication model, the practice of social marketing can remain vibrant as a relevant consumer-oriented approach to behavior change.

  5. MODELLING THE INFLUENCE OF ONLINE MARKETING COMMUNICATION ON BEHAVIOURAL INTENTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra PERJU-MITRAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study addresses the manners in which potential consumers react to and examine online marketing communication efforts, and how their perceptions influence various decisions. By drawing from theories of consumer behaviour, several variables are taken into consideration, a model designed to integrate existing theories and a three-way study of online user behaviour in response to online marketing messages is defined and tested. The results of the study demonstrate that there are direct and positive links between the manner in which users perceive online marketing communication efforts, and direct and positive links between users’ attitudes towards online communication and their intention to either further inform themselves, forward the information obtained, or even become loyal to the company.

  6. SEMIPARAMETRIC VERSUS PARAMETRIC CLASSIFICATION MODELS - AN APPLICATION TO DIRECT MARKETING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    BULT, [No Value

    In this paper we are concerned with estimation of a classification model using semiparametric and parametric methods. Benefits and limitations of semiparametric models in general, and of Manski's maximum score method in particular, are discussed. The maximum score method yields consistent estimates

  7. Building trusted national identity management systems: Presenting the privacy concern-trust (PCT) model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adjei, Joseph K.; Olesen, Henning

    This paper discusses the effect of trust and information privacy concerns on citizens’ attitude towards national identity management systems. We introduce the privacyconcerns- trust model, which shows the role of trust in mediating and moderating citizens’ attitude towards identity management...... systems. We adopted a qualitative research approach in our analysis of data that was gathered through a series of interviews and a stakeholder workshop in Ghana. Our findings indicate that, beyond the threshold level of trust, societal information privacy concern is low; hence, trust is high, thereby...

  8. Power market model with energy- and power dimension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnsen, T.A.; Larsen, B.M.

    1995-01-01

    This report discusses a mathematical model of the Norwegian power market. The year is divided into three seasons. Each season is subdivided into a high-load period and a low-load period according to the demand. High-load occurs in daytime on workdays while low-load occurs at night and on holidays. The model is intended to be a tool for studying variations in prices, production, demand and trade throughout the year in a market of free competition. The model establishes equilibrium prices of electricity in Norway in high-load and low-load periods. Equilibrium prices with added transport tariffs and charges give customer an indication of the cost of using electricity. And the equilibrium prices indicate to the power producers the value of further energy or power capacity. Examples of calculations using the model show that extended export and import between Norway and other countries affect power prices and production in Norway. In the examples, power intensive industry and wood processing are subjected to market prices on energy. World market prices which give unilateral power export in the high-load periods cause the Norwegian power prices to rise strongly. If to the export from Norway in periods of high-load there corresponds import in periods of low-load, then the pressure on the prices in the power market is significantly reduced. A more extensive power exchange implies that foreign power producers may use the Norwegian power system to avoid large variations in their thermal power production. 23 refs., 21 figs., 1 tab

  9. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  10. Green certificates and market power in the Nordic power market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Eirik S; Bergman, Lars

    2012-01-01

    principles and a numerical model based on that to investigate the Swedish TGC market operating in a setting of a common Nordic electricity market. The analysis shows that Swedish producers may exercise market power using the TGC-market but that this problem will be eliminated by opening the TGC-market......The purpose of this study is to elucidate under which circumstances, how, and to what extent market power on a Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) market can be used to affect an entire electricity market. There are basically two reasons for being concerned with this. One is that a small number...

  11. EIA model documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-30

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of products, the production of natural gas liquids and domestic methanol, projects petroleum provides and sources of supplies for meeting demand. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption.

  12. Modeling the time-changing dependence in stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frezza, Massimiliano

    2012-01-01

    The time-changing dependence in stock markets is investigated by assuming the multifractional process with random exponent (MPRE) as model for actual log price dynamics. By modeling its functional parameter S(t, ω) via the square root process (S.R.) a twofold aim is obtained. From one hand both the main financial and statistical properties shown by the estimated S(t) are captured by surrogates, on the other hand this capability reveals able to model the time-changing dependence shown by stocks or indexes. In particular, a new dynamical approach to interpreter market mechanisms is given. Empirical evidences are offered by analysing the behaviour of the daily closing prices of a very known index, the Industrial Average Dow Jones (DJIA), beginning on March,1990 and ending on February, 2005.

  13. Climate Change and Market Collapse: A Model Applied to Darfur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola Olsson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A recurring argument in the global debate is that climate deterioration is likely to make social conflicts over diminishing natural resources more common in the future. The exact mechanism behind such a development has so far not been successfully characterized in the literature. In this paper, we present a general model of a community populated by farmers and herders who can either divide up land in a market economy or in autarky. The key insight from our model is that decreasing resources can make trade between the two groups collapse, which in turn makes each group’s welfare independent of that of the other. Predictions from the model are then applied to the conflict in Darfur. Our analysis suggests that three decades of drought in the area can at least partially explain the observed disintegration of markets and the subsequent rise of social tensions.

  14. A CcP model of the stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimshon Bichler

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Most explanations of stock market booms and busts are based on contrasting the underlying ‘fundamental’ logic of the economy with the exogenous, non-economic factors that presumably distort it. Our paper offers a radically different model, examining the stock market not from the mechanical viewpoint of a distorted economy, but from the dialectical perspective of capitalized power. The model demonstrates that (1 the valuation of equities represents capitalized power; (2 capitalized power is dialectically intertwined with systemic fear; and (3 systemic fear and capitalized power are mediated through strategic sabotage. This triangular model, we posit, can offer a basis for examining the asymptotes, or limits, of capitalized power and the ways in which these asymptotes relate to the historical and ongoing transformation of the capitalist mode of power.

  15. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  16. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  17. The Development of Empathic Concern in Siblings: A Reciprocal Influence Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jambon, Marc; Madigan, Sheri; Plamondon, André; Daniel, Ella; Jenkins, Jennifer M

    2018-02-20

    This study utilized actor-partner interdependence modeling to examine the bidirectional effects of younger (M age  = 18 months) and older siblings (M age  = 48 months) on later empathy development in a large (n = 452 families), diverse (42% immigrant) Canadian sample. Controlling for parenting, demographic characteristics, sibling relationship quality, and within-child stability in empathic concern, both younger and older siblings' observed empathic concern uniquely predicted relative increases in the other's empathy over a period of 18 months. The strength of the partner effects did not differ by birth order. Sex composition moderated the younger sibling partner effect, whereas age gap moderated the older sibling partner effect. This study highlights the important role that siblings play in enhancing the development of care and concern for others. © 2018 The Authors. Child Development © 2018 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  18. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  19. Harsh Working Conditions and Poor Eating Habits: Health-Related Concerns of Female Head Porters (Kayayei) in the Mallam Atta Market, Accra, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyarko, Samuel Harrenson; Tahiru, Abdul Majeed

    2018-01-01

    The kaya business is known to pose significant health-related risks to female migrants. This study sought to explore the health-related concerns of female head porters in the Mallam Atta market, Accra, Ghana. A qualitative study was conducted in which twenty female head porters at the Mallam Atta market in Accra were interviewed. A thematic analysis was performed and the emerging themes were presented and supported with quotations from the respondents. Poor accommodation and eating habits, harsh working conditions, and lack of knowledge about health conditions exposed the respondents to several health-related concerns like neck pains, skin rashes, malaria, cholera, and stomach ache among other infections. The popular means of seeking health care was through purchasing drugs from pharmacies or drug peddlers instead of health facilities. Financial constraints, lack of faith in the National Health Insurance Scheme, and long waiting periods at the health facilities militated against seeking appropriate health care at the hospitals and clinics. Political willpower needs to be strengthened for poverty reduction strategies such as training of hairdressing, dress and soap making, and shea butter processing for women from the Northern regions in order to ameliorate their livelihoods and/or reduce migration to the south.

  20. Harsh Working Conditions and Poor Eating Habits: Health-Related Concerns of Female Head Porters (Kayayei in the Mallam Atta Market, Accra, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Harrenson Nyarko

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The kaya business is known to pose significant health-related risks to female migrants. This study sought to explore the health-related concerns of female head porters in the Mallam Atta market, Accra, Ghana. Methods. A qualitative study was conducted in which twenty female head porters at the Mallam Atta market in Accra were interviewed. A thematic analysis was performed and the emerging themes were presented and supported with quotations from the respondents. Results. Poor accommodation and eating habits, harsh working conditions, and lack of knowledge about health conditions exposed the respondents to several health-related concerns like neck pains, skin rashes, malaria, cholera, and stomach ache among other infections. The popular means of seeking health care was through purchasing drugs from pharmacies or drug peddlers instead of health facilities. Financial constraints, lack of faith in the National Health Insurance Scheme, and long waiting periods at the health facilities militated against seeking appropriate health care at the hospitals and clinics. Conclusion. Political willpower needs to be strengthened for poverty reduction strategies such as training of hairdressing, dress and soap making, and shea butter processing for women from the Northern regions in order to ameliorate their livelihoods and/or reduce migration to the south.

  1. A Multilateral Negotiation Model for Cloud Service Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Dongjin; Sim, Kwang Mong

    Trading cloud services between consumers and providers is a complicated issue of cloud computing. Since a consumer can negotiate with multiple providers to acquire the same service and each provider can receive many requests from multiple consumers, to facilitate the trading of cloud services among multiple consumers and providers, a multilateral negotiation model for cloud market is necessary. The contribution of this work is the proposal of a business model supporting a multilateral price negotiation for trading cloud services. The design of proposed systems for cloud service market includes considering a many-to-many negotiation protocol, and price determining factor from service level feature. Two negotiation strategies are implemented: 1) MDA (Market Driven Agent); and 2) adaptive concession making responding to changes of bargaining position are proposed for cloud service market. Empirical results shows that MDA achieved better performance in some cases that the adaptive concession making strategy, it is noted that unlike the MDA, the adaptive concession making strategy does not assume that an agent has information of the number of competitors (e.g., a consumer agent adopting the adaptive concession making strategy need not know the number of consumer agents competing for the same service).

  2. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  3. Body image concerns in professional fashion models: are they really an at-risk group?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swami, Viren; Szmigielska, Emilia

    2013-05-15

    Although professional models are thought to be a high-risk group for body image concerns, only a handful of studies have empirically investigated this possibility. The present study sought to overcome this dearth of information by comparing professional models and a matched sample on key indices of body image and appeared-related concerns. A group of 52 professional fashion models was compared with a matched sample of 51 non-models from London, England, on indices of weight discrepancy, body appreciation, social physique anxiety, body dissatisfaction, drive for thinness, internalization of sociocultural messages about appearance, and dysfunctional investment in appearance. Results indicated that professional models only evidenced significantly higher drive for thinness and dysfunctional investment in appearance than the control group. Greater duration of engagement as a professional model was associated with more positive body appreciation but also greater drive for thinness. These results indicate that models, who are already underweight, have a strong desire to maintain their low body mass or become thinner. Taken together, the present results suggest that interventions aimed at promoting healthy body image among fashion models may require different strategies than those aimed at the general population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, G.; Chen, Y.; Huang, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    Researchers have borrowed many theories from statistical physics, like ensemble, Ising model, etc., to study complex adaptive systems through agent-based modeling. However, one fundamental difference between entities (such as spins) in physics and micro-units in complex adaptive systems is that the latter are usually with high intelligence, such as investors in financial markets. Although highly intelligent virtual agents are essential for agent-based modeling to play a full role in the study of complex adaptive systems, how to create such agents is still an open question. Hence, we propose three principles for designing high artificial intelligence in financial markets and then build a specific class of agents called iAgents based on these three principles. Finally, we evaluate the intelligence of iAgents through virtual index trading in two different stock markets. For comparison, we also include three other types of agents in this contest, namely, random traders, agents from the wealth game (modified on the famous minority game), and agents from an upgraded wealth game. As a result, iAgents perform the best, which gives a well support for the three principles. This work offers a general framework for the further development of agent-based modeling for various kinds of complex adaptive systems.

  5. Labor market modeling recognizing latent job attributes and opportunity constraints : an empirical analysis of labor market behavior of Eritrean women

    OpenAIRE

    Arneberg, Marie W.; Dagsvik, John K.; Jia, Zhiyang

    2002-01-01

    Abstract: This paper analyzes labor market behavior of urban Eritrean women with particular reference to the impact of education, earnings and labor market opportunities. Unlike traditional models of labor supply, which assume that work can be supplied freely in the labor market, we develop a framework that explicitly takes into account the notion of job opportunities and observable sets of feasible jobs. The framework is formulated within a random utility setting in which unob...

  6. Model instruments of effective segmentation of the fast food market

    OpenAIRE

    Mityaeva Tetyana L.

    2013-01-01

    The article presents results of optimisation step-type calculations of economic effectiveness of promotion of fast food with consideration of key parameters of assessment of efficiency of the marketing strategy of segmentation. The article justifies development of a mathematical model on the bases of 3D-presentations and three-dimensional system of management variables. The modern applied mathematical packages allow formation not only of one-dimensional and two-dimensional arrays and analyse ...

  7. Generalized Bogoliubov Polariton Model: An Application to Stock Exchange Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anh, Chu Thuy; Anh, Truong Thi Ngoc; Lan, Nguyen Tri; Viet, Nguyen Ai

    2016-01-01

    A generalized Bogoliubov method for investigation non-simple and complex systems was developed. We take two branch polariton Hamiltonian model in second quantization representation and replace the energies of quasi-particles by two distribution functions of research objects. Application to stock exchange market was taken as an example, where the changing the form of return distribution functions from Boltzmann-like to Gaussian-like was studied. (paper)

  8. Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Number of Hospitals and Medical Centres in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study reveals the technique for to achive the shapes of the mathematical models which put in evidence the distributions of the values concerning the number of Hospitals, respectively Medical Centres, in our country, in the time horizon 2005-2014. In the same time, we can to observe the algorithm applied for to construct forecasts about the evolutions regarding the number of Hospitals and Medical Centres in Romania.

  9. Evaluation of Franchising Business Model to Solar Energy Market in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Thanh

    2009-01-01

    The shortage of energy, the running out of natural resources, the concern for environment pollution and the advantage of potential solar resource has become an opportunity for foreign investors who have intention to enter Vietnam‟s solar energy market. There are so many entry modes for the investors to choose rom but the application of franchising business model to solar energy industry is still a new concept not only in Vietnam but also all over the world. Therefore, this study works on the...

  10. A Game-Theoretic Model of Marketing Skin Whiteners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Roger Lee

    2015-01-01

    Empirical studies consistently find that people in less developed countries tend to regard light or "white" skin, particularly among women, as more desirable or superior. This is a study about the marketing of skin whiteners in these countries, where over 80 percent of users are typically women. It proceeds from the following premises: a) Purely market or policy-oriented approaches toward the risks and harms of skin whitening are cost-inefficient; b) Psychosocial and informational factors breed uninformed and risky consumer choices that favor toxic skin whiteners; and c) Proliferation of toxic whiteners in a competitive buyer's market raises critical supplier accountability issues. Is intentional tort a rational outcome of uncooperative game equilibria? Can voluntary cooperation nonetheless evolve between buyers and sellers of skin whiteners? These twin questions are key to addressing the central paradox in this study: A robust and expanding buyer's market, where cheap whitening products abound at a high risk to personal and societal health and safety. Game-theoretic modeling of two-player and n-player strategic interactions is proposed in this study for both its explanatory and predictive value. Therein also lie its practical contributions to the economic literature on skin whitening.

  11. Modelling wedding marketing strategies: An fsQCA Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anestis Fotiadis

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study is to develop a model delineating customer perceptions on wedding marketing strategies in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Main objective of this paper is to analyse a category of special events: the wedding market sector in Kaohsiung, Taiwan by examining how they attract consumers regarding their marketing strategies using the method of fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA. Based on a survey to married, in relationship and singles local citizens of Taiwan the relationships between impressions, importance, push factors with decision making was explored. To test the hypotheses of the proposed model a primary research study was conducted employing a mall intercept technique via distribution of a self-administered questionnaire within a cross sectional on-site field research context. A fsQCA modelling approach technique was employed in order to measure, estimate and confirm the different casual paths constructs, as well as to test the significance of the paths between different segments of the wedding industry. Our findings reveal that the presence of importance, push factors and decision making determines the level of consumer perception performance. However, impressions do not show significant impact on consumer perceptions.

  12. The Models of Market Economy on the Modern Technological Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolovska Zoia M.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at analyzing the status of software provision of simulation modeling of economic systems and disclosing the possibilities of application of the integrated software-technological platforms in the building of market models. Problems in the field of applied introduction of the method of simulation modeling have been defined; the status of the software-technological provision of the simulation modeling of economic systems has been analyzed. It has been suggested to use the integrated system of multi-approach simulation modeling AnyLogic as one of the most powerful modern software platforms. The variant of the model of competitive multi-product market adapted to the specifics of pharmaceutical industry enterprises has been considered. The work of the model can be illustrated by results of the situational simulation experiments on the example of the pharmaceutical company «Farmak». The possibilities of parametric adjustment of imitation experiments together with the spectrum of their application in practical activity of pharmaceutical enterprises have been demonstrated.

  13. NATGAS. A Model of the European Natural Gas Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulder, M; Zwart, G.

    2006-02-01

    The NATural GAS model is an integrated model of the European wholesale gas market providing long-run projections of supply, transport, storage and consumption patterns in the model region, aggregated in 5-year periods, distinguishing two seasons (winter and summer). Model results include levels of investment in the various branches, output and consumption, depletion of reserves and price levels. The NATGAS model computes long-term effects of policy measures on future gas production and gas prices in Europe. NATGAS is an equilibrium model describing behaviour of gas producers, investors in infrastructure (pipeline, LNG capacity, as well as storage), traders and consumers. NATGAS covers the main European demand regions, including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Moreover, it covers the main origins of supply on the European market, such as Russia, Norway, Algeria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and LNG. In this memorandum, we first discuss the theoretical background as well as the model specifications. Afterwards, we describe the data we used, present some results and assess validity by computing sensitivities and comparing with current developments

  14. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Yanhui Xi; Hui Peng; Yemei Qin

    2016-01-01

    The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation....

  15. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C; Hyoseop Lee,; Wonsuck Lee,

    2011-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents

  16. Market chances for innovative natural gas applications. The determination of market potential by means of a phase model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoelen, Q.E.J.J.M.; Klootwijk, M.

    2000-01-01

    Innovative applications of natural gas can increase the sale of natural gas, support energy companies in the development of commercial activities, and contribute to energy efficiency measures. The Dutch natural gas trading company Gasunie supports those developments by investigating the market potential of innovative gas appliances. Use is made of the so-called Phase Model for Market Introduction, developed by Kea Consult

  17. Relationship Marketing results: proposition of a cognitive mapping model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iná Futino Barreto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective - This research sought to develop a cognitive model that expresses how marketing professionals understand the relationship between the constructs that define relationship marketing (RM. It also tried to understand, using the obtained model, how objectives in this field are achieved. Design/methodology/approach – Through cognitive mapping, we traced 35 individual mental maps, highlighting how each respondent understands the interactions between RM elements. Based on the views of these individuals, we established an aggregate mental map. Theoretical foundation – The topic is based on a literature review that explores the RM concept and its main elements. Based on this review, we listed eleven main constructs. Findings – We established an aggregate mental map that represents the RM structural model. Model analysis identified that CLV is understood as the final result of RM. We also observed that the impact of most of the RM elements on CLV is brokered by loyalty. Personalization and quality, on the other hand, proved to be process input elements, and are the ones that most strongly impact others. Finally, we highlight that elements that punish customers are much less effective than elements that benefit them. Contributions - The model was able to insert core elements of RM, but absent from most formal models: CLV and customization. The analysis allowed us to understand the interactions between the RM elements and how the end result of RM (CLV is formed. This understanding improves knowledge on the subject and helps guide, assess and correct actions.

  18. Cost calculation model concerning small-scale production of chips and split firewood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryynaenen, S.; Naett, H.; Valkonen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The TTS-Institute's Forestry Department has developed a computer-based cost calculation model for the production of wood chips and split firewood. This development work was carried out in conjunction with the nation-wide BIOENERGY -research programme. The said calculation model eases and speeds up the calculation of unit costs and resource needs in harvesting systems for wood chips and split firewood. The model also enables the user to find out how changes in the productivity and costs bases of different harvesting chains influences the unit costs of the system as a whole. The undertaking was composed of the following parts: clarification and modification of productivity bases for application in the model as mathematical models, clarification of machine and device costs bases, designing of the structure and functions of the calculation model, construction and testing of the model's 0-version, model calculations concerning typical chains, review of calculation bases, and charting of development needs focusing on the model. The calculation model was developed to serve research needs, but with further development it could be useful as a tool in forestry and agricultural extension work, related schools and colleges, and in the hands of firewood producers. (author)

  19. Optimal Goodwill Model with Consumer Recommendations and Market Segmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Bogusz, Dominika; Górajski, Mariusz

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new dynamic model of product goodwill where a product is sold in many market segments, and where the segments are indicated by the usage experience of consumers. The dynamics of product goodwill is described by a partial differential equation of the Lotka–Sharpe– McKendrick type. The main novelty of this model is that the product goodwill in a segment of new consumers depends not only on advertising effort, but also on consumer recommendations, for which we introduce a mathematic...

  20. An Aggregation Model for Energy Resources Management and Market Negotiations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Abrishambaf

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Currently the use of distributed energy resources, especially renewable generation, and demand response programs are widely discussed in scientific contexts, since they are a reality in nowadays electricity markets and distribution networks. In order to benefit from these concepts, an efficient energy management system is needed to prevent energy wasting and increase profits. In this paper, an optimization based aggregation model is presented for distributed energy resources and demand response program management. This aggregation model allows different types of customers to participate in electricity market through several tariffs based demand response programs. The optimization algorithm is a mixed-integer linear problem, which focuses on minimizing operational costs of the aggregator. Moreover, the aggregation process has been done via K-Means clustering algorithm, which obtains the aggregated costs and energy of resources for remuneration. By this way, the aggregator is aware of energy available and minimum selling price in order to participate in the market with profit. A realistic low voltage distribution network has been proposed as a case study in order to test and validate the proposed methodology. This distribution network consists of 25 distributed generation units, including photovoltaic, wind and biomass generation, and 20 consumers, including residential, commercial, and industrial buildings.

  1. Developing a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadegh Feizollahi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many evidences, which emphasis on the benefits of using new technologies of information and communication in international business and many believe that E-Commerce can help satisfy customer explicit and implicit requirements. Internet shopping is a concept developed after the introduction of electronic commerce. Information technology (IT and its applications, specifically in the realm of the internet and e-mail promoted the development of e-commerce in terms of advertising, motivating and information. However, with the development of new technologies, credit and financial exchange on the internet websites were constructed so to facilitate e-commerce. The proposed study sends a total of 200 questionnaires to the target group (teachers - students - professionals - managers of commercial web sites and it manages to collect 130 questionnaires for final evaluation. Cronbach's alpha test is used for measuring reliability and to evaluate the validity of measurement instruments (questionnaires, and to assure construct validity, confirmatory factor analysis is employed. In addition, in order to analyze the research questions based on the path analysis method and to determine markets selection models, a regular technique is implemented. In the present study, after examining different aspects of e-commerce, we provide a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online marketing in Iran. These findings provide a consistent, targeted and holistic framework for the development of the Internet market in the country.

  2. A Market Dynamics Model for New Industrial Products and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Shmuel S. Oren; Michael H. Rothkopf

    1984-01-01

    New product planning models attempt to predict the market consequences of product line and product design decisions. One output of such models, especially those driven by subjective or market research data, is usually theoretical market shares based upon consumer preferences under idealized conditions. This paper describes a class of models that bridge the gap between such theoretical market shares and dynamic sales forecasts. This model accounts for differences in customer awareness of diffe...

  3. Mathematical modelling of electricity market with renewable energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchenko, O.V.

    2007-01-01

    The paper addresses the electricity market with conventional energy sources on fossil fuel and non-conventional renewable energy sources (RESs) with stochastic operating conditions. A mathematical model of long-run (accounting for development of generation capacities) equilibrium in the market is constructed. The problem of determining optimal parameters providing the maximum social criterion of efficiency is also formulated. The calculations performed have shown that the adequate choice of price cap, environmental tax, subsidies to RESs and consumption tax make it possible to take into account external effects (environmental damage) and to create incentives for investors to construct conventional and renewable energy sources in an optimal (from the society view point) mix. (author)

  4. [The social hygienic model of organization of preventive activities concerning rural population of the Omskaia oblast].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berehnoii, V G

    2016-01-01

    The study was carried out concerning environmental factors and social hygienic portrait of rural residents. The analysis determined environmental, social and behavioral risk factors of health. The pathologies of risk for rural residents were substantiated. In conditions of degradation of accessibility of medical care to inhabitants residing outside of district centers specified by decreasing of capacity of hospital medical care and decreasing of accessibility of out-patient services, the visiting trips of physicians ’ teams and activities concerning development of hygienic literacy were organized in 2012-2014. This approach permitted ameliorating health indices and organization of medical care for the given category of citizen, including positive results in decreasing of mortality, timely diagnostic of diseases, reduction of number of emergency operations in central district hospitals and attenuation of intensity of impact of regulative risk factors. All this determined in the upshot social and economic effectiveness of advanced model of prevention of health disorders of rural residents.

  5. Stability analysis of an implicitly defined labor market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Diana A.; Mendes, Vivaldo M.

    2008-06-01

    Until very recently, the pervasive existence of models exhibiting well-defined backward dynamics but ill-defined forward dynamics in economics and finance has apparently posed no serious obstacles to the analysis of their dynamics and stability, despite the problems that may arise from possible erroneous conclusions regarding theoretical considerations and policy prescriptions from such models. A large number of papers have dealt with this problem in the past by assuming the existence of symmetry between forward and backward dynamics, even in the case when the map cannot be invertible either forward or backwards. However, this procedure has been seriously questioned over the last few years in a series of papers dealing with implicit difference equations and inverse limit spaces. This paper explores the search and matching labor market model developed by Bhattacharya and Bunzel [J. Bhattacharya, H. Bunzel, Chaotic Planning Solution in the Textbook Model of Equilibrium Labor Market Search and Matching, Mimeo, Iowa State University, 2002; J. Bhattacharya, H. Bunzel, Economics Bulletin 5 (19) (2003) 1-10], with the following objectives in mind: (i) to show that chaotic dynamics may still be present in the model for acceptable parameter values, (ii) to clarify some open questions related with the admissible dynamics in the forward looking setting, by providing a rigorous proof of the existence of cyclic and chaotic dynamics through the application of tools from symbolic dynamics and inverse limit theory.

  6. Explanatory models concerning the effects of small-area characteristics on individual health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigtländer, Sven; Vogt, Verena; Mielck, Andreas; Razum, Oliver

    2014-06-01

    Material and social living conditions at the small-area level are assumed to have an effect on individual health. We review existing explanatory models concerning the effects of small-area characteristics on health and describe the gaps future research should try to fill. Systematic literature search for, and analysis of, studies that propose an explanatory model of the relationship between small-area characteristics and health. Fourteen studies met our inclusion criteria. Using various theoretical approaches, almost all of the models are based on a three-tier structure linking social inequalities (posited at the macro-level), small-area characteristics (posited at the meso-level) and individual health (micro-level). No study explicitly defines the geographical borders of the small-area context. The health impact of the small-area characteristics is explained by specific pathways involving mediating factors (psychological, behavioural, biological). These pathways tend to be seen as uni-directional; often, causality is implied. They may be modified by individual factors. A number of issues need more attention in research on explanatory models concerning small-area effects on health. Among them are the (geographical) definition of the small-area context; the systematic description of pathways comprising small-area contextual as well as compositional factors; questions of direction of association and causality; and the integration of a time dimension.

  7. Perfectionistic Concerns, Social Negativity, and Subjective Well-Being: A Test of the Social Disconnection Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackinnon, Sean P; Kehayes, Ivy-Lee L; Leonard, Kenneth E; Fraser, Ronald; Stewart, Sherry H

    2017-06-01

    Partner-specific perfectionistic concerns (PC) include concern over mistakes, self-criticism, and socially prescribed perfectionism as it pertains to one's partner. The social disconnection model proposes that PC influences well-being indirectly through interpersonal problems. Thus, we hypothesized that social negativity (expressed anger, hostility, and rejection) would mediate the relationship between dyadic PC and subjective well-being. Data from 203 romantic dyads (92.1% heterosexual) were collected using self-report surveys and a four-wave, 4-week longitudinal design. Participants were predominantly female (53.1%), young (M = 22.69 years), and Caucasian (82.3%). Data were analyzed using an actor-partner interdependence model with multilevel structural equation modeling. There were significant actor effects at the between-subjects and within-subjects levels, and significant partner effects for the relationship between PC and social negativity at the within-subject level. Social negativity mediated the relationships between PC and both negative affect and life satisfaction. However, positive affect was more weakly related to PC and social negativity. The social disconnection model was supported. PC was positively associated with one's own social negativity and evoked hostile behaviors from one's partner. Hostile, rejecting behaviors reduced the well-being of the actor, but not the partner. Results suggest perfectionism may be best understood within an interpersonal context. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhui Xi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation. With the new representations, a theoretical explanation of leverage effect is provided. Simulated data and daily stock market indices (Shanghai composite index, Shenzhen component index, and Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite index via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method are used to estimate the leverage market microstructure model. The results verify the effectiveness of the model and its estimation approach proposed in the paper and also indicate that the stock markets have strong leverage effects. Compared with the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV model in terms of DIC (Deviance Information Criterion, the leverage market microstructure model fits the data better.

  9. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  10. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-18

    This report contains the following: Bibliography; Petroleum Market Model abstract; Data quality; Estimation methodologies (includes refinery investment recovery thresholds, gas plant models, chemical industry demand for methanol, estimation of refinery fixed costs, estimation of distribution costs, estimation of taxes gasoline specifications, estimation of gasoline market shares, estimation of low-sulfur diesel market shares, low-sulfur diesel specifications, estimation of regional conversion coefficients, estimation of SO{sub 2} allowance equations, unfinished oil imports methodology, product pipeline capacities and tariffs, cogeneration methodology, natural gas plant fuel consumption, and Alaskan crude oil exports); Matrix generator documentation; Historical data processing; and Biofuels supply submodule.

  11. A strategic gaming model for health information exchange markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Diego A; Feijoo, Felipe; Zayas-Castro, Jose L; Levin, Scott; Das, Tapas K

    2018-03-01

    Current market conditions create incentives for some providers to exercise control over patient data in ways that unreasonably limit its availability and use. Here we develop a game theoretic model for estimating the willingness of healthcare organizations to join a health information exchange (HIE) network and demonstrate its use in HIE policy design. We formulated the model as a bi-level integer program. A quasi-Newton method is proposed to obtain a strategy Nash equilibrium. We applied our modeling and solution technique to 1,093,177 encounters for exchanging information over a 7.5-year period in 9 hospitals located within a three-county region in Florida. Under a set of assumptions, we found that a proposed federal penalty of up to $2,000,000 has a higher impact on increasing HIE adoption than current federal monetary incentives. Medium-sized hospitals were more reticent to adopt HIE than large-sized hospitals. In the presence of collusion among multiple hospitals to not adopt HIE, neither federal incentives nor proposed penalties increase hospitals' willingness to adopt. Hospitals' apathy toward HIE adoption may threaten the value of inter-connectivity even with federal incentives in place. Competition among hospitals, coupled with volume-based payment systems, creates no incentives for smaller hospitals to exchange data with competitors. Medium-sized hospitals need targeted actions (e.g., outside technological assistance, group purchasing arrangements) to mitigate market incentives to not adopt HIE. Strategic game theoretic models help to clarify HIE adoption decisions under market conditions at play in an extremely complex technology environment.

  12. A model proposal concerning balance scorecard application integrated with resource consumption accounting in enterprise performance management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ORHAN ELMACI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study intended to investigate the “Balance Scorecard (BSC model integrated with Resource Consumption Accounting (RCA” which helps to evaluate the enterprise as matrix structure in its all parts. It aims to measure how much tangible and intangible values (assets of enterprises contribute to the enterprises. In other words, it measures how effectively, actively, and efficiently these values (assets are used. In short, it aims to measure sustainable competency of enterprises. As expressing the effect of tangible and intangible values (assets of the enterprise on the performance in mathematical and statistical methods is insufficient, it is targeted that RCA Method integrated with BSC model is based on matrix structure and control models. The effects of all complex factors in the enterprise on the performance (productivity and efficiency estimated algorithmically with cause and effect diagram. The contributions of matrix structures for reaching the management functional targets of the enterprises that operate in market competitive environment increasing day to day, is discussed. So in the context of modern management theories, as a contribution to BSC approach which is in the foreground in today’s administrative science of enterprises in matrix organizational structures, multidimensional performance evaluation model -RCA integrated with BSC Model proposal- is presented as strategic planning and strategic evaluation instrument.

  13. A multidimensional subdiffusion model: An arbitrage-free market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guo-Hua; Zhang Hong; Luo Mao-Kang

    2012-01-01

    To capture the subdiffusive characteristics of financial markets, the subordinated process, directed by the inverse α-stale subordinator S α (t) for 0 < α < 1, has been employed as the model of asset prices. In this article, we introduce a multidimensional subdiffusion model that has a bond and K correlated stocks. The stock price process is a multidimensional subdiffusion process directed by the inverse α-stable subordinator. This model describes the period of stagnation for each stock and the behavior of the dependency between multiple stocks. Moreover, we derive the multidimensional fractional backward Kolmogorov equation for the subordinated process using the Laplace transform technique. Finally, using a martingale approach, we prove that the multidimensional subdiffusion model is arbitrage-free, and also gives an arbitrage-free pricing rule for contingent claims associated with the martingale measure. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  14. Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

    2001-06-01

    The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

  15. The influence of maternal modeling on body image concerns and eating disturbances in preadolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handford, Charlotte M; Rapee, Ronald M; Fardouly, Jasmine

    2018-01-01

    Research suggests that mothers may influence the development of body image concerns and eating disturbances in their daughters by modeling negative body image beliefs and unhealthy eating behaviors. However, the causal nature of that mode of influence is yet to be established. This study implemented an experimental design to examine the impact of mothers' modeling of negative comments about their own appearance and diet on their daughters' body image concerns and eating behaviors. Participants were 8-12 year old girls and their mothers (N = 50). While viewing thin-ideal magazine advertisements with their daughter, mothers were instructed to make either negative comments about their own weight, shape, and diet or to make no appearance or diet related comments. Daughters' levels of body esteem, body satisfaction, and eating attitudes were assessed pre- and post-manipulation, and their actual eating habits were measured post-manipulation. Girls whose mothers had made self-critical comments about their own appearance and diet reported lower body esteem, lower body satisfaction, more problematic eating attitudes, and ate significantly fewer sweets than girls whose mothers had not made self-critical comments. These results have implications for disordered eating prevention programs, suggesting that greater emphasis be placed on discouraging negative modeling behaviors among mothers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Applying marketing channel theory to food marketing in developing countries: A vertical disintegration model for horticultural marketing channels in Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.; Tilburg, van A.

    2001-01-01

    This article shows that marketing channel theory, which has been extensively applied in developed countries, can also be of great value to the developing world. Notably, the channel approach makes it possible to explain the number of trade levels observed in food marketing systems. We propose here a

  17. Application of Binomial Model and Market Asset Declaimer Methodology for Valuation of Abandon and Expand Options. The Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a case study of valuation of real options included in a investment project. The main goal of the article is to present the calculation and methodological issues of application the methodology for real option valuation. In order to do it there are used the binomial model and Market Asset Declaimer methodology. The project presented in the article concerns the introduction of radio station to a new market. It includes two valuable real options: to abandon the project and to expand.

  18. A Conceptual Model of Knowledge Sharing and Market Orientation in the Tourism Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Chien M. Yeh; Han N. Hu; Shu H. Tsai

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: Marketing scholars have emphasized the importance of market orientation. While a number of studies discover the positive influence of market orientation on a variety of organizations phenomena, the understanding of factors that facilitate market orientation is limited. This study develops a conceptual model in which knowledge sharing is proposed to be the antecedent to three perspectives of market orientation-customer orientation, competitor orientation ...

  19. Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

  20. A fuzzy logic model to forecast stock market momentum in Indonesia's property and real estate sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penawar, H. K.; Rustam, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The Capital market has the important role in Indonesia's economy. The capital market does not only support the economy of Indonesia but also being an indicator Indonesia's economy improvement. Something that has been traded in the capital market is stock (stock market). Nowadays, the stock market is full of uncertainty. That uncertainty values make predicting stock market is all that we have to do before we make a decision in the stock market. One that can be predicted in the stock market is momentum. To forecast stock market momentum, it can use fuzzy logic model. In the process of modeling, it will be used 14 days historical data that consisting the value of open, high, low, and close, to predict the next 5 days momentum categories. There are three momentum categories namely Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish. To illustrate the fuzzy logic model, we will use stocks data from several companies that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in property and real estate sector.

  1. A large-scale linear complementarity model of the North American natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabriel, Steven A.; Jifang Zhuang; Kiet, Supat

    2005-01-01

    The North American natural gas market has seen significant changes recently due to deregulation and restructuring. For example, third party marketers can contract for transportation and purchase of gas to sell to end-users. While the intent was a more competitive market, the potential for market power exists. We analyze this market using a linear complementarity equilibrium model including producers, storage and peak gas operators, third party marketers and four end-use sectors. The marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players determining supply to meet end-use consumption, all other players are in perfect competition. Results based on National Petroleum Council scenarios are presented. (Author)

  2. Integrating market share models with network optimizing models for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, L.D.; Moses, S.W.

    1991-01-01

    Mathematical models of market share are constructed to describe the distribution of petroleum products from pipeline terminals, water terminals and refineries in the midcontinental United States. Network distribution models are developed to analyse the constraints and economics of alternative distribution systems. This paper describes how the two types of models were integrated for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

  3. EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA's legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level

  4. EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-28

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.

  5. Modeled de facto reuse and contaminants of emerging concern in drinking water source waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thuy; Westerhoff, Paul; Furlong, Edward T.; Kolpin, Dana W.; Batt, Angela L.; Mash, Heath E.; Schenck, Kathleen M.; Boone, J. Scott; Rice, Jacelyn; Glassmeyer, Susan T.

    2018-01-01

    De facto reuse is the percentage of drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) intake potentially composed of effluent discharged from upstream wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Results from grab samples and a De Facto Reuse in our Nation's Consumable Supply (DRINCS) geospatial watershed model were used to quantify contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) concentrations at DWTP intakes to qualitatively compare exposure risks obtained by the two approaches. Between nine and 71 CECs were detected in grab samples. The number of upstream WWTP discharges ranged from 0 to >1,000; comparative de facto reuse results from DRINCS ranged from 80% during lower streamflows. Correlation between chemicals detected and DRINCS modeling results were observed, particularly DWTPs withdrawing from midsize water bodies. This comparison advances the utility of DRINCS to identify locations of DWTPs for future CEC sampling and treatment technology testing.

  6. Concerns over modeling and warning capabilities in wake of Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2011-04-01

    Improved earthquake models, better tsunami modeling and warning capabilities, and a review of nuclear power plant safety are all greatly needed following the 11 March Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, according to scientists at the European Geosciences Union's (EGU) General Assembly, held 3-8 April in Vienna, Austria. EGU quickly organized a morning session of oral presentations and an afternoon panel discussion less than 1 month after the earthquake and the tsunami and the resulting crisis at Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant, which has now been identified as having reached the same level of severity as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Many of the scientists at the EGU sessions expressed concern about the inability to have anticipated the size of the earthquake and the resulting tsunami, which appears likely to have caused most of the fatalities and damage, including damage to the nuclear plant.

  7. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  8. Understanding electronic market usage : a revised model based on planned behaviour and innovation diffusion theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijden, van der Hans

    1999-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the identification of determinants that influence the use ofbusiness-to-consumer electronic markets. Since the widespread adoption of the Internet, these electronic markets are now commonplace and it becomesincreasingly relevant to identify the factors that influence

  9. Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldasch, Joachim

    2011-07-01

    An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion process for durable consumer goods governed by a variation-selection-reproduction mechanism and the growth dynamics can be described by a replicator equation. The theory suggests that products play the role of species in biological evolutionary models. It implies that the evolution of man-made products can be arranged into an evolutionary tree. The model suggests that each product can be characterized by its product fitness. The fitness space contains elements of both sites of the market, supply and demand. The unit sales of products with a higher product fitness compared to the mean fitness increase. Durables with a constant fitness advantage replace other goods according to a logistic law. The model predicts in particular that the mean price exhibits an exponential decrease over a long time period for durable goods. The evolutionary diffusion process is directly related to this price decline and is governed by Gompertz equation. Therefore it is denoted as Gompertz diffusion. Describing the aggregate sales as the sum of first, multiple and replacement purchase the product life cycle can be derived. Replacement purchase causes periodic variations of the sales determined by the finite lifetime of the good (Juglar cycles). The model suggests that both, Bass- and Gompertz diffusion may contribute to the product life cycle of a consumer durable. The theory contains the standard equilibrium view of a market as a special case. It depends on the time scale, whether an equilibrium or evolutionary description is more appropriate. The evolutionary framework is used to derive also the size, growth rate and price distribution of manufacturing business units. It predicts that the size distribution of the business units (products) is lognormal

  10. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  11. High school science teachers' perceptions of telecommunications utilizing a Concerns-Based Adoption Model (CBAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slough, Scott Wayne

    The purpose of this study was to describe high school science teachers' perceptions of telecommunications. The data were collected through open-ended ethnographic interviews with 24 high school science teachers from five different high schools in a single suburban school district who had been in an emerging telecommunications-rich environment for two and one-half years. The interview protocol was adapted from Honey and Henriquez (1993), with the Concerns-Based Adoption Model (CBAM) (Bailey & Palsha, 1992) providing a conceptual framework for data analysis. For this study, the emerging telecommunications-rich environment included a district-wide infrastructure that had been in place for two and one-half years that included a secure district-wide Intranet, 24 network connections in each classroom, full Internet access from the network, four computers per classroom, and a variety of formal and informal professional development opportunities for teachers. Categories of results discussed include: (a) teacher's profession use of telecommuunications; (b) teachers' perceptions of student's use of telecommunications; (c) teachers' perceptions of barriers to the implementation of telecommunications; (d) teachers' perceptions of supporting conditions for the implementation of telecommunications; (e) teachers' perceptions of the effect of telecommunications on high school science instruction; (f) teachers' perceptions of the effect of telecommunications on student's learning in high school science; and (g) the demographic variables of the sex of the teacher, years of teaching experience, school assignment within the district, course assignment(s), and academic preparation. Implications discussed include: (a) telecommunications can be implemented successfully in a variety of high school science classrooms with adequate infrastructure support and sufficient professional development opportunities, including in classes taught by females and teachers who were not previously

  12. A novel model for product bundling and direct marketing in e-commerce based on market segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Beheshtian-Ardakani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, companies offer product bundles with special discounts in order to sell more products. However, it is important to note that customers show different levels of loyalties to companies, and each segment of the market has unique features, which influences the customers’ buying patterns. The primary purpose of this paper is to propose a novel model for product bundling in e-commerce websites by using market segmentation variables and customer loyalty analysis. RFM model is employed to calculate customer loyalty. Subsequently, the customers are grouped based on their loyalty levels. Each group is then divided into different segments based on market segmentation variables. The product bundles are determined for each market segment via clustering algorithms. Apriori algorithm is also used to determine the association rules for each product bundle. Classification models are applied in order to determine which product bundle should be recommended to each customer. The results demonstrate that the silhouette coefficient, support, confidence, and accuracy values are higher when both customer loyalty level and market segmentation variables are used in product bundling. Accordingly, the proposed model increases the chance of success in direct marketing and recommending product bundles to customers.

  13. Financial Investment Management: Testing the Market Model on the Romanian Capital Market during the Post Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu CIOBANU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an analysis of the decision of investing in the capital market in Romania during 2009-2010, in the context of overcoming the global financial crisis. In the first part of the paper, we have made a brief presentation of the simplified model of market analysis introduced in the specialized literature by William Sharpe, the respective model representing the starting point in our study. The purpose of the present study is to emphasize how the evolutions of the financial securities rates listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange could be explained based on the evolution of BET Romanian capital market index. Although the study over this phenomenon has begun in the middle of the last century, every day new studies appear that are either coming in addition to the already existing ones or are bringing a new approach regarding the financial theory. The novelty of the present study conducted by us resides in the highlighting of the evolutions of the financial securities rates during July 2009 – December 2010 periods. The second part of the paper presents the results of a study conducted on the Romanian capital market, emphasizing the correlations between the most important securities on the Romanian capital market, as parts of BET index and market index. The aim is to check whether during this period the evolution of the financial securities’ return can be explained more or less by the return of the capital market.

  14. Prospective of Transformation of Current Models of the Global Pharmaceutical Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy Solodkovskyy

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This article thoroughly analyzes the current state of the global pharmaceutical market, defines the key factors for its development and outlines the promising areas of transformation of existing business models of top companies. The forecasted data relating to the market development until 2015 have been investigated. The global, market, technological and organizational factors of transformation of modern model of the global pharmaceutical market have been identified.

  15. What makes a marketing campaing a viral success? : A descriptive model exploring the mechanisms of viral marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Stålnacke Larsson, Richard; Odén, Niklas

    2011-01-01

    What makes some marketing campaigns so immensely big and well known when they are marketed through social media or with a viral approach? How can a company reach out to customers through viral marketing and how can they make use of today’s social media to achieve it? In this article we will try to understand and further explore what a campaign have to accomplish in order to achieve a viral spread, using a descriptive model which uses a number of factors and terms necessary in order to properl...

  16. A modelling breakthrough for market design analysis to test massive intermittent generation integration in markets results of selected OPTIMATE studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaude, Francois; Atayi, A.; Bourmaud, J.-Y.

    2013-01-01

    The OPTIMATE1 platform focuses on electricity system and market designs modelling in order to assess current and innovative designs in Europe. The current paper describes the results of the first validation studies' conducted with the tool. These studies deal with day-ahead market rules, load...... flexibility, cross-border management and intermittent renewable support schemes with a view to better integrating large amounts of renewable energy in Europe. Market and system designs were assessed based on economic efficiency, security of supply2 and environmental impact3 indicators. These results give...

  17. Modeling and prioritizing demand response programs in power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aalami, H.A.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Yousefi, G.R.

    2010-01-01

    One of the responsibilities of power market regulator is setting rules for selecting and prioritizing demand response (DR) programs. There are many different alternatives of DR programs for improving load profile characteristics and achieving customers' satisfaction. Regulator should find the optimal solution which reflects the perspectives of each DR stakeholder. Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) is a proper method for handling such optimization problems. In this paper, an extended responsive load economic model is developed. The model is based on price elasticity and customer benefit function. Prioritizing of DR programs can be realized by means of Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. Considerations of ISO/utility/customer regarding the weighting of attributes are encountered by entropy method. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for selecting the most effective DR program. Numerical studies are conducted on the load curve of the Iranian power grid in 2007. (author)

  18. A Structural Model of the Retail Market for Illicit Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galenianos, Manolis; Gavazza, Alessandro

    2017-03-01

    We estimate a model of illicit drugs markets using data on purchases of crack cocaine. Buyers are searching for high-quality drugs, but they determine drugs' quality (i.e., their purity) only after consuming them. Hence, sellers can rip off first-time buyers or can offer higher-quality drugs to induce buyers to purchase from them again. In equilibrium, a distribution of qualities persists. The estimated model implies that if drugs were legalized, in which case purity could be regulated and hence observable, the average purity of drugs would increase by approximately 20 percent and the dispersion would decrease by approximately 80 percent. Moreover, increasing penalties may raise the purity and affordability of the drugs traded by increasing sellers’ relative profitability of targeting loyal buyers versus first-time buyers.

  19. Co-Marketing Capability and its Impact on Marketing Allinace Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Schögel, Marcus; Herhausen, Dennis

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to conceptualize co-marketing capability (CMC) and to explore its relationship to marketing alliance performance. Drawing on a literature review, in-depth interviews with marketing alliance managers and consulting experience concerning co-marketing alliances, we established a multidimensional model of CMC. Using data from 287 chief marketing officers, we empirically show that the identified CMC is an important source of competitive advantage in terms of marketing alli...

  20. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097

  1. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  2. Internal and external market orientation as organizational resources - consequences for market and financial performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Snoj

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The concept of internal marketing has been discussed in marketing literature for over 30 years. Despite this fact there is little theoretical and empirical evidence of the way in which the internal market orientation impacts market and financial performance. On the other hand, there is considerable empirical evidence concerning the impact of the external market orientation on market and financial performance. Consequently, very few research projects have dealt with the impact of both market orientations on the performance of companies. In this paper a structural model was constructed, consisting of the internal market orientation, external market orientation, market performance and financial performance. With the help of the structural equation model the hypothesis that the internal market orientation is a significant predecessor of the external market orientation was confirmed. The external market orientation was found to significantly influence market as well as financial performance.

  3. Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najmudin Najmudin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Development of financial globalization in the form of stock market integration experiences a trend which is getting stronger. The analysis models in the field of finance and investments should be able to adjust to these developments. This adjustment includes the models used to detect the existence of herding behavior. All this time, the herding behavior model of individual stocks towards market consensus has been referring to CAPM theory. The basic assumption of CAPM is that financial assets at a domestic stock market are segmented from the financial assets’ movement at the global market. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an alternative view in the form of an international herding model that should be applied in the context of an integrated stock market. The model was created with reference to the international CAPM. This paper combined ICAPM method and international CSAD model to identify herding for eight stock markets, the sample period being from January 2003 to December 2016. The result found that for segmented stock markets, represented by China and the Philippines, herding happened for both overall the sample period and the market crisis period. In addition, for the integrated stock markets, represented by Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the UK, herding behavior was only found during the market crisis period. Therefore, classification of market integrations should be considered in assessing the herding behaviour at stock markets.

  4. Modeling of the financial market using the two-dimensional anisotropic Ising model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, L. S.

    2017-09-01

    We have used the two-dimensional classical anisotropic Ising model in an external field and with an ion single anisotropy term as a mathematical model for the price dynamics of the financial market. The model presented allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the strong of the site anisotropy term Δ which reinforces the sensitivity of the agent's sentiment to external news.

  5. Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ming-Che

    Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received

  6. Modeling the economics and market adoption of distributed power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maribu, Karl Magnus

    2006-01-01

    After decades of power generating units increasing in size, there is currently a growing focus on distributed generation, power generation close to energy loads. Investments in large-scale units have been driven by economy of scale, but recent technological improvements on small generating plants have made it possible to exploit the benefits of local power generation to a larger extent than previously. Distributed generation can improve power system efficiency because heat can be recovered from thermal units to supply heat and thermally activated cooling, and because small-scale renewables have a promising end-user market. Further benefits of distributed generation include improved reliability, deferral of often controversial and costly grid investments and reduction of grid losses. The new appeal of small-scale power generation means that there is a need for new tools to analyze distributed generation, both from a system perspective and from the perspective of potential developers. In this thesis, the focus is on the value of power generation for end-users. The thesis identifies how an end-user can find optimal distributed generation systems and investment strategies under a variety of economic and regulatory scenarios. The final part of the thesis extends the analysis with a bottom up model of how the economics of distributed generation for a representative set of building types can transfer to technology diffusion in a market. Four separate research papers make up the thesis. In the first paper, Optimal Investment Strategies in Decentralized Renewable Power Generation under Uncertainty, a method for evaluation of investments in renewable power units under price uncertainty is presented. It is assumed the developer has a building with an electricity load and a renewable power resource. The case study compares a set of wind power systems with different capacity and finds that capacity depends on the electricity price and that there under uncertain prices can be a

  7. Modeling IPO In Dubai Stock Market: Booming Or Tumbling Return?

    OpenAIRE

    Viviane Y. Naïmy

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of IPO on Dubai Stock Market. We measured through detailed distribution analysis and hypothesis testing the Dubai markets reaction to IPO. We demonstrated that IPO had downbeat impact on Dubai market performance in terms of return as revealed by the rejection of the alternative hypothesis. The independency between market return and IPO was partially attributed to irrational valuations at the time of IPO.

  8. A Simulation Model that Decreases Faculty Concerns about Adopting Web-Based Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hae-Deok; Wang, Wei-Tsong; Liu, Chao-Yueh

    2011-01-01

    Faculty members have different concerns as they integrate new technology into their teaching practices. The integration of Web-Based Instruction in higher-education settings will not be successful if these faculty concerns are not addressed. Four main stages of faculty concern (information, personal, management, and impact) were identified based…

  9. Modeling investor sentiment and overconfidence in an agent-based stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lovric, M.; Kaymak, U.; Spronk, J.

    2010-01-01

    Agent-based stock markets as bottom-up models of financial markets allow us to study the link between individual investor behavior and aggregate market phenomena, and as such are a useful tool for investigating the implications of behavioral finance and investor psychology. In this paper we want to

  10. Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPurchase timing of households is usually modeled at the category level. Marketing efforts are however only available at the brand level. Hence, to describe category-level interpurchase times using marketing efforts one has to construct a category-level measure of marketing efforts from

  11. Waterfowl populations of conservation concern: learning from diverse challenges, models, and conservation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Jane E.; Slattery, Stuart; Clark, Robert G.

    2014-01-01

    There are 30 threatened or endangered species of waterfowl worldwide, and several sub-populations are also threatened. Some of these species occur in North America, and others there are also of conservation concern due to declining population trends and their importance to hunters. Here we review conservation initiatives being undertaken for several of these latter species, along with conservation measures in place in Europe, to seek common themes and approaches that could be useful in developing broad conservation guidelines. While focal species may vary in their life histories, population threats and geopolitical context, most conservation efforts have used a systematic approach to understand factors limiting populations and o identify possible management or policy actions. This approach generally includes a priori identification of plausible hypotheses about population declines or status, incorporation of hypotheses into conceptual or quantitative planning models, and the use of some form of structured decision making and adaptive management to develop and implement conservation actions in the face of many uncertainties. A climate of collaboration among jurisdictions sharing these birds is important to the success of a conservation or management programme. The structured conservation approach exemplified herein provides an opportunity to involve stakeholders at all planning stages, allows for all views to be examined and incorporated into model structures, and yields a format for improved communication, cooperation and learning, which may ultimately be one of the greatest benefits of this strategy.

  12. Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables

    OpenAIRE

    Fok, D.; Paap, R.

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPurchase timing of households is usually modeled at the category level. Marketing efforts are however only available at the brand level. Hence, to describe category-level interpurchase times using marketing efforts one has to construct a category-level measure of marketing efforts from the marketing mix of individual brands. In this paper we discuss two standard approaches suggested in the literature to solve this problem, that is, using individual choice shares as weights to aver...

  13. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

  14. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

  15. Stochastic Modeling of Wind Derivatives in Energy Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Espen Benth

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We model the logarithm of the spot price of electricity with a normal inverse Gaussian (NIG process and the wind speed and wind power production with two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. In order to reproduce the correlation between the spot price and the wind power production, namely between a pure jump process and a continuous path process, respectively, we replace the small jumps of the NIG process by a Brownian term. We then apply our models to two different problems: first, to study from the stochastic point of view the income from a wind power plant, as the expected value of the product between the electricity spot price and the amount of energy produced; then, to construct and price a European put-type quanto option in the wind energy markets that allows the buyer to hedge against low prices and low wind power production in the plant. Calibration of the proposed models and related price formulas is also provided, according to specific datasets.

  16. Biofuel market and carbon modeling to evaluate French biofuel policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, F.; Prieur, A.

    2006-10-01

    In order to comply with European objectives, France has set up an ambitious biofuel plan. This plan is evaluated considering two criteria: tax exemption need and GHG emission savings. An economic marginal analysis and a life cycle assessment (LCA) are provided using a coupling procedure between a partial agro-industrial equilibrium model and a refining optimization model. Thus, we are able to determine the minimum tax exemption needed to place on the market a targeted quantity of biofuel by deducing the agro-industrial marginal cost of biofuel production to the biofuel refining long-run marginal revenue. In parallel, a biofuels LCA is carried out using model outputs. Such a method avoid common allocation problems between joint products. The French biofuel plan is evaluated for 2008, 2010 and 2012 using prospective scenarios. Results suggest that biofuel competitiveness depends on crude oil prices and petroleum products demands. Consequently, biofuel tax exemption does not always appear to be necessary. LCA results show that biofuels production and use, from 'seed to wheel', would facilitate the French Government's to compliance with its 'Plan Climat' objectives by reducing up to 5% GHG emissions in the French road transport sector by 2010. (authors)

  17. SYSTEMIC RESEARCH MODEL OF DEVELOPMENT OF MARKETING THOUGHT AND EDUCATION IN CROATIA

    OpenAIRE

    Renko, Nataša

    2001-01-01

    The author conceived the model for systemic research of development of marketing thought and education in Croatia. The model consists of six elements which are completely interactive and have essential influence on development of marketing educational system. The model also helped to evaluate historical occurences which had preceded and influenced the present situation in Croatia, and which might have possible consequences to future development of marketing educational system in Croatia.

  18. The Model of Integrated Marketing Communication: Who has the Role to Influence Consumer Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Olimpia Elena Mihaela Oancea

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is proposes a theoretical framework to investigate the models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour, and the development a model of integrated marketing communication. The research goals aim the following aspects: (a) The analyze of the IMC concept; (b) Identifying and analyzing the main models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour; (c) Identifying the variables that wi...

  19. Documentation of the petroleum market model (PMM). Appendix: Model developer's report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The EIA Model Documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System provides a complete description of the Petroleum Market Model's (PMM) methodology, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developer's Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation and provides an assessment of the sensitivity of PMM results to changes in input data. The MDR analysis for PMM is performed by varying several sets of input variables one-at-a-time and examining the effect on a set of selected output variables. The analysis is based on stand-alone, rather than integrated, National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) runs. This means that other NEMS modules are not responding to PMM outputs. The PMM models petroleum refining and marketing. The purpose of the PMM is to project petroleum product prices, refining activities, and movements of petroleum into the United States and among domestic regions. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption in, the refining industry. The PMM is also used to analyze a wide variety of petroleum-related issues and policies, in order to foster better understanding of the petroleum refining and marketing industry and the effects of certain policies and regulations. The PMM simulates the operation of petroleum refineries in the United States, including the supply and transportation of crude oil to refineries, the regional processing of these raw materials into petroleum products, and the distribution of petroleum products to meet regional demands. The essential outputs of this model are product prices, a petroleum supply/demand balance, demands for refinery fuel use, and capacity expansion

  20. Advances in segmentation modeling for health communication and social marketing campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, T L; Bryant, C

    1996-01-01

    Large-scale communication campaigns for health promotion and disease prevention involve analysis of audience demographic and psychographic factors for effective message targeting. A variety of segmentation modeling techniques, including tree-based methods such as Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection and logistic regression, are used to identify meaningful target groups within a large sample or population (N = 750-1,000+). Such groups are based on statistically significant combinations of factors (e.g., gender, marital status, and personality predispositions). The identification of groups or clusters facilitates message design in order to address the particular needs, attention patterns, and concerns of audience members within each group. We review current segmentation techniques, their contributions to conceptual development, and cost-effective decision making. Examples from a major study in which these strategies were used are provided from the Texas Women, Infants and Children Program's Comprehensive Social Marketing Program.

  1. The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

    1996-01-01

    The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

  2. Study on the Market Risk Measurement of the Style Portfolios in Stock Markets Based on EVT-t-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhong Zhou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For the presence of non-normal distribution characteristics in the financial assets returns, the model of AR(1-GJR(1,1 is used to characterize the marginal distribution of the style assets in China stock market. The Copula function is introduced to analyze the dependency structure between the six style assets, combined with the marginal distributed residual sequences. And the joint return distribution of the style portfolios is simulated, combined with extreme value theory and Monte Carlo simulation method. Then the market risks (VaR and CVaR of the style portfolios in China stock markets are obtained. The results of the study show that the generalized Pareto distribution Model can well fit the non-normal distribution characteristics such as peak and fat tail in the style assets returns.

  3. Public relation based model of integrated marketing communications

    OpenAIRE

    Naumovska, Ljupka; Blazeska, Daliborka

    2016-01-01

    The marketing communications industry and theory are facing rapid changes in accordance with global business and society fluctuations. Global and local market conditions are constantly varying and thus creating hardly predictable environment. The most implemented tool for marketing communications – advertising, is losing its power for effective communications; customers are becoming over-advertised and resistant to traditional advertising stimuli. Advertising, as one-way communica...

  4. Models of Marketing Strategies vs. Lotto and Schneider Electric

    OpenAIRE

    Nelbom, Mathies Raaskou; Giersing, Josephine; Olesen, Kåre

    2016-01-01

    This project has the ultimate goal of answering the research question, What are the 4 P’s of marketing mix and SWOT analysis, and how are they implemented within companies? To what extent does Lotto and Schneider Electric implement this these marketing tools? This project goes into depth with the 4P’s within marketing mix, product, promotion, place and price, as well as SWOT analysis. These method of marketing are then applied to the two companies that were interviewed, in order to see how th...

  5. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal

  6. Model documentation Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-04-30

    This report documents objectives and conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1996 (AEO96). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s three submodules: Coal Production Submodule, Coal Export Submodule, and Coal Distribution Submodule.

  7. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal.

  8. Animal models in biological and biomedical research - experimental and ethical concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Monica L; Winter, Lucile M F

    2017-09-04

    Animal models have been used in experimental research to increase human knowledge and contribute to finding solutions to biological and biomedical questions. However, increased concern for the welfare of the animals used, and a growing awareness of the concept of animal rights, has brought a greater focus on the related ethical issues. In this review, we intend to give examples on how animals are used in the health research related to some major health problems in Brazil, as well as to stimulate discussion about the application of ethics in the use of animals in research and education, highlighting the role of National Council for the Control of Animal Experimentation (Conselho Nacional de Controle de Experimentação Animal - CONCEA) in these areas. In 2008, Brazil emerged into a new era of animal research regulation, with the promulgation of Law 11794, previously known as the Arouca Law, resulting in an increased focus, and rapid learning experience, on questions related to all aspects of animal experimentation. The law reinforces the idea that animal experiments must be based on ethical considerations and integrity-based assumptions, and provides a regulatory framework to achieve this. This review describes the health research involving animals and the current Brazilian framework for regulating laboratory animal science, and hopes to help to improve the awareness of the scientific community of these ethical and legal rules.

  9. Biofuel market and carbon modeling to analyse French biofuel policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, F.; Prieur, A.

    2007-01-01

    In order to comply with European Union objectives, France has set up an ambitious biofuel plan. This plan is evaluated on the basis of two criteria: tax exemption on fossil fuels and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission savings. An economic marginal analysis and a life cycle assessment (LCA) are provided using a coupling procedure between a partial agro-industrial equilibrium model and an oil refining optimization model. Thus, we determine the minimum tax exemption needed to place on the market a targeted quantity of biofuel by deducting the biofuel long-run marginal revenue of refiners from the agro-industrial marginal cost of biofuel production. With a clear view of the refiner's economic choices, total pollutant emissions along the biofuel production chains are quantified and used to feed an LCA. The French biofuel plan is evaluated for 2008, 2010 and 2012 using prospective scenarios. Results suggest that biofuel competitiveness depends on crude oil prices and demand for petroleum products and consequently these parameters should be taken into account by authorities to modulate biofuel tax exemption. LCA results show that biofuel production and use, from 'seed to wheel', would facilitate the French Government's compliance with its 'Plan Climat' objectives by reducing up to 5% GHG emissions in the French road transport sector by 2010

  10. Structural analysis of oligopoly market based on the reflective game model by the example of telecommunication market in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna A. Biryukova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to analyze the possible structures of the oligopoly market distribution by the example of telecommunication industry in terms of the agentsrsquo reflexive behavior. nbsp Methods game theory economicmathematical modeling. Results the article states that one of the first objects in the game theory is an oligopoly market. Based on the analysis of game theory studies it was found that there is a need to achieve information equilibrium in reflexive games of three agents in the oligopoly market. To solve this problem we analyzed all possible representations of the agents leading to the set of games in the Russian telecommunications market for three agents OJSC ldquoMTSrdquo OJSC ldquoMegafonrdquo and OJSC ldquoVympelcomrdquo. Three reflection grades were studied 1 representations of the agent about other agents 2 representations of the agentrsquos perception of other agents about it and 3 representations of the agent about what its competitors think about the first agentrsquos opinion about the other two. As a result the general patterns were revealed of the expressions of conjectural variations in each case it was proved that further detailing of the reflection is not needed. As a result of calculations the models of informational equilibriums of the Russian telecommunication market were constructed for that the averaged values of the demand and cost functions parameters functions of cellular communication operators were taken. It was also revealed that in 2015 the actual telecommunication market in the Russian Federation qualitatively i.e. by the ratio of market shares was close to equilibrium on condition of first rank reflexive behavior for the case when the market leader OJSC ldquoMTSrdquo represents its counterparties ndash OJSC ldquoMegafonrdquo and OJSC ldquoVympelcomrdquo ndash as the driven agents. Scientific novelty the analytical expressions for the information equilibrium parameters issues and profits of the agents aggregate

  11. Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limpaitoon, Tanachai

    This dissertation presents an equilibrium framework for analyzing the impact of cap-and-trade regulation on transmission-constrained electricity market. The cap-and-trade regulation of greenhouse gas emissions has gained momentum in the past decade. The impact of the regulation and its efficacy in the electric power industry depend on interactions of demand elasticity, transmission network, market structure, and strategic behavior of firms. I develop an equilibrium model of an oligopoly electricity market in conjunction with a market for tradable emissions permits to study the implications of such interactions. My goal is to identify inefficiencies that may arise from policy design elements and to avoid any unintended adverse consequences on the electric power sector. I demonstrate this modeling framework with three case studies examining the impact of carbon cap-and-trade regulation. In the first case study, I study equilibrium results under various scenarios of resource ownership and emission targets using a 24-bus IEEE electric transmission system. The second and third case studies apply the equilibrium model to a realistic electricity market, Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 225-bus system with a detailed representation of the California market. In the first and second case studies, I examine oligopoly in electricity with perfect competition in the permit market. I find that under a stringent emission cap and a high degree of concentration of non-polluting firms, the electricity market is subject to potential abuses of market power. Also, market power can occur in the procurement of non-polluting energy through the permit market when non-polluting resources are geographically concentrated in a transmission-constrained market. In the third case study, I relax the competitive market structure assumption of the permit market by allowing oligopolistic competition in the market through a conjectural variation approach. A short-term equilibrium

  12. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Zuwei

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

  13. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuwei Yu

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

  14. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

  15. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

  16. Financial equilibrium with career concerns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amil Dasgupta

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available What are the equilibrium features of a financial market where a sizeable proportion of traders face reputational concerns? This question is central to our understanding of financial markets, which are increasingly dominated by institutional investors. We construct a model of delegated portfolio management that captures key features of the US mutual fund industry and embed it in an asset pricing framework. We thus provide a formal model of financial equilibrium with career concerned agents. Fund managers differ in their ability to understand market fundamentals, and in every period investors choose a fund. In equilibrium, the presence of career concerns induces uninformed fund managers to churn, i.e., to engage in trading even when they face a negative expected return. Churners act as noise traders and enhance the level of trading volume. The equilibrium relationship between fund return and net fund flows displays a skewed shape that is consistent with stylized facts. The robustness of our core results is probed from several angles.

  17. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Daniel, W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

  18. The Food Marketing Defense Model: Integrating Psychological Research to Protect Youth and Inform Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Jennifer L; Brownell, Kelly D; Bargh, John A

    2009-12-01

    Marketing practices that promote calorie-dense, nutrient-poor foods directly to children and adolescents present significant public health risk. Worldwide, calls for government action and industry change to protect young people from the negative effects of food marketing have increased. Current proposals focus on restricting television advertising to children under 12 years old, but current psychological models suggest that much more is required. All forms of marketing pose considerable risk; adolescents are also highly vulnerable; and food marketing may produce far-reaching negative health outcomes. We propose a food marketing defense model that posits four necessary conditions to effectively counter harmful food marketing practices: awareness, understanding, ability and motivation to resist. A new generation of psychological research is needed to examine each of these processes, including the psychological mechanisms through which food marketing affects young people, to identify public policy that will effectively protect them from harmful influence.

  19. PUBLIC RELATION BASED MODEL OF INTEGRATED MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljupka Naumovska

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The marketing communications industry and theory are facing rapid changes in accordance with global business and society fluctuations. Global and local market conditions are constantly varying and thus creating hardly predictable environment. The most implemented tool for marketing communications – advertising, is losing its power for effective communications; customers are becoming over-advertised and resistant to traditional advertising stimuli. Advertising, as one-way communication mass media tool is no longer effective as previously, hence can no longer fulfill the role of leading marketing mix tool. Therefore, the necessity for altering the structure of the traditional marketing communication mix elements, emphasizing the role of other elements but advertising, with more personalized and interactive functions. One method for improvement of marketing communication’s mix efficiency is by reallocation the leading role of advertising with public relations. The practice of public relations tools can ensure higher level of transparency in internal and external organizational communications and thus can certify more effective marketing communication. The theoretical research is supported with qualitative research of business segment by conducting a detailed interview for the marketing communication practice.

  20. Flexibility and security : National social models in transitional labour markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muffels, R.J.A.; Crouch, Colin; Wilthagen, A.C.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Aggregate and individual data are used to test the association between employment performance and different ways of reconciling flexibility and security in European labour markets. Particular use is made of statistics on individuals’ labour market transitions as revealed by national labour force

  1. A model to decompose the performance of supplementary private health insurance markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidl, Reiner

    2008-09-01

    For an individual insurance firm offering supplementary private health insurance, a model is developed to decompose market performance in terms of insurer profits. For the individual contract, the model specifies the conditions under which adverse selection, cream skimming, and moral hazard occur, shows the impact of information on contracting, and the profit contribution. Contracts are determined by comparing willingness to pay for insurance with the individual's risk position, and information on both sides of the market. Finally, performance is aggregated up to the total market. The model provides a framework to explain the attractiveness of supplementary markets to insurers.

  2. The advertising-financed business model in two-sided media markets

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Simon P.; Jullien, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    This chapter focuses on the economic mechanisms at work in recent models of advertising finance in media markets developed around the concept of two-sided markets. The objective is to highlight new and original insights from this approach, and to clarify the conceptual aspects. The chapter first develops a canonical model of two-sided markets for advertising, where platforms deliver content to consumers and resell their "attention" to advertisers. A key distinction is drawn between free media...

  3. A Dynamic Model of U.S. Sugar-Related Markets: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Babula, Ronald A.; Newman, Douglas; Rogowsky, Robert A.

    2006-01-01

    The methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) model are applied to monthly U.S. markets for sugar and for sugar-using markets for confectionary, soft drink, and bakery products. Primarily a methods paper, we apply Johansen and Juselius' advanced procedures to these markets for perhaps the first time, with focus on achievement of a statistically adequate model through analysis of a battery of advanced statistical diagnostic tests and on exploitation of the system's cointegration ...

  4. Transfer prices assignment with integrated production and marketing optimization models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Parra

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In decentralized organizations (today a great majority of the large multinational groups, much of the decision-making power is in its individual business units-BUs-. In these cases, the management control system (MCS uses transfer prices to coordinate actions of the BUs and to evaluate their performance with the goal of guaranteeing the whole corporation optimum. The purpose of the investigation is to design transfer prices that suit this goal. Design/methodology/approach: Considering the results of the whole company supply chain optimization models (in the presence of seasonality of demand the question is to design a mechanism that creates optimal incentives for the managers of each business unit to drive the corporation to the optimal performance. Mathematical programming models are used as a start point. Findings: Different transfer prices computation methods are introduced in this paper for decentralised organizations with two divisions (production and marketing. The methods take into account the results of the solution of the whole company supply chain optimization model, if exists, and can be adapted to the type of information available in the company. It is mainly focused on transport costs assignment. Practical implications: Using the methods proposed in this paper a decentralized corporation can implement more accurate transfer prices to drive the whole organization to the global optimum performance. Originality/value: The methods proposed are a new contribution to the literature on transfer prices with special emphasis on the practical and easy implementation in a modern corporation with several business units and with high seasonality of demand. Also, the methods proposed are very flexible and can be tuned depending on the type of information available in the company.

  5. Is BAMM Flawed? Theoretical and Practical Concerns in the Analysis of Multi-Rate Diversification Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabosky, Daniel L; Mitchell, Jonathan S; Chang, Jonathan

    2017-07-01

    Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) is a statistical framework that uses reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to infer complex macroevolutionary dynamics of diversification and phenotypic evolution on phylogenetic trees. A recent article by Moore et al. (MEA) reported a number of theoretical and practical concerns with BAMM. Major claims from MEA are that (i) BAMM's likelihood function is incorrect, because it does not account for unobserved rate shifts; (ii) the posterior distribution on the number of rate shifts is overly sensitive to the prior; and (iii) diversification rate estimates from BAMM are unreliable. Here, we show that these and other conclusions from MEA are generally incorrect or unjustified. We first demonstrate that MEA's numerical assessment of the BAMM likelihood is compromised by their use of an invalid likelihood function. We then show that "unobserved rate shifts" appear to be irrelevant for biologically plausible parameterizations of the diversification process. We find that the purportedly extreme prior sensitivity reported by MEA cannot be replicated with standard usage of BAMM v2.5, or with any other version when conventional Bayesian model selection is performed. Finally, we demonstrate that BAMM performs very well at estimating diversification rate variation across the ${\\sim}$20% of simulated trees in MEA's data set for which it is theoretically possible to infer rate shifts with confidence. Due to ascertainment bias, the remaining 80% of their purportedly variable-rate phylogenies are statistically indistinguishable from those produced by a constant-rate birth-death process and were thus poorly suited for the summary statistics used in their performance assessment. We demonstrate that inferences about diversification rates have been accurate and consistent across all major previous releases of the BAMM software. We recognize an acute need to address the theoretical foundations of rate-shift models for

  6. A study of the logical model of capital market complexity theories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Analyzes the shortcomings of the classic capital market theories based on EMH and discloses the complexity essence of the capital market. Considering the capital market a complicated, interactive and adaptable dynamic system, with complexity science as the method for researching the operation law of the capital market, this paper constructs a nonlinear logical model to analyze the applied realm, focal point and interrelationship of such theories as dissipative structure theory, chaos theory, fractal theory, synergetics theory, catastrophe theory and scale theory, and summarizes and discusses the achievements and problems of each theory.Based on the research, the paper foretells the developing direction of complexity science in a capital market.

  7. Results of a modeling workshop concerning preservation and protection of wetlands in North Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.

    1981-01-01

    In a recently signed letter, the Governor of North Dakota and the Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Fish and Wildlife and Parks charged a joint state-federal study group with examination of two separate questions: 1) mitigation for the Garrison Diversion Project; and 2) planning for long-range protection and preservation of fish and wildlife habitat in North Dakota. The cochair for this study group (the Secretary of the Interior's Field Representative, Denver, Colorado, and the Natural Resources Coordinator for North Dakota) further articulated the charge concerning the second of these two questions to include three steps: 1) development of a general plan for preservation and protection of migratory waterfowl and their associated wetland habitat; 2) a comprehensive analysis of alternative strategies, including opportunities and constraints, for achieving the goals articulated in Step 1; and 3) design of a coordinated state-federal public information program to assist in plan implementation. In order to obtain input from a variety of interests, the joint study group initiated step 2 activities with a five-day workshop in Bismarck, N. D.; December 8-12, 1980. The objectives of the workshop were: 1) to identify alternative strategies for preserving and enhancing waterfowl production habitat in North Dakota; 2) to identify opportunities and constraints associated with those alternatives; and 3) to promote communication and understanding of the implications of those alternatives for all affected parties. To achieve these objectives, the workshop utilized a group of concepts and techniques collectively known as Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA). Developed by Dr. C. S. Holling and his co-workers at the University of British Columbia, the AEA process involves planners, managers, scientists, and other interested parties in a structures atmosphere whose focus is the construction and examination of a computerized simulation model of the resource system under

  8. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

  9. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

  10. Logistical modelling of managerial decisions in social and marketing business systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Velychko

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Logistical modelling of business systems within the context of mathematical logistics, logistical management, operational research as well as rationalistic provision of logistics at an enterprise have been considered in the article. The research was carried out on the methodological basis which included the authors’ developments and implied conveying familiar knowledge on new objects within the field of linear programming. Scientific novelty concerns the development of categorical toolkit as well as the existing methodical approaches of rationalistic logistics to managerial decisions. Rational areas of using terms “logistical model” and “model of logistics” in business environment have been determined. The authors’ methodology of constructing logistical models in management of separate social and marketing systems of enterprises according to minimization and maximization criteria is presented. Ways of using modelling at not conventional objects of logistical support for managerial decisions have been suggested in the context of studying the moral psychological climate of staff and complex estimation of socioeconomic measures of staff management improvement. The procedure of logistical optimization in the system of distributing and advertising activity of the enterprise has been developed. Approbation of the developed models has been carried out and possibilities for further model’s complication by output data, variables, and limitations under specific practical conditions have been grounded.

  11. The Model of Integrated Marketing Communication: Who has the Role to Influence Consumer Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olimpia Elena Mihaela Oancea

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is proposes a theoretical framework to investigate the models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour, and the development a model of integrated marketing communication. The research goals aim the following aspects: (a The analyze of the IMC concept; (b Identifying and analyzing the main models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour; (c Identifying the variables that will be included in the conceptual model of integrated marketing communication proposed. A review of the integrated marketing communication literature show the fact that were developed a series models of integrated marketing communication which has the role to influence the consumer buying behavior, but these not capture the correlation between the following factors: sociological variables, external stimuli, integrated marketing communication and consumer behavior. The method used was the secondary research in order to fulfill the research objectives established. The major result of this paper consists in proposing of a new conceptual model of integrated marketing communication that captures the correlation between external stimuli - sociological variables - integrated marketing communication - consumer behavior.

  12. A Systems Model to Make, Market, and Lead Your Way towards Sustained Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raman Kumar Agrawalla

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Business enterprises exist in a world that is fiercely competitive, tied with huge global uncertainties. They always encounter increasing pressure on prices and margins. Hence, irrespective of their domain of operations and industry, businesses are naturally concerned about their growth, specifically sustained profitable growth, in today’s world. Marketing is a key business function to market and lead a business towards sustained profitable growth but the problem is it lacks a systems perspective in its operations, strategy, and practice. Further, given the confluence and systemic interactions of various economic, digital, and competitive forces; the challenge for different business functions—including marketing—increases tremendously. In this context, it is important for business enterprises to have a systems perspective to find their ways to growth that will be sustained. This calls for a holistic approach to assimilate and steer the business functions in any enterprise. The present conceptual paper focuses on an important business function for sustained growth in a holistic way and presents a systems model, called ‘Value Based Business Approach (VBBA-marketing’, which has potential to guide and steer companies and business enterprises to create a path for their sustained profitable growth.

  13. The export marketing-financing based on forfeiting model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Pero B.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The contemporary business finance have a lot of modalities of involving in the international market with different options. Twenty years ago, financial aspects and insurance of export transactions especially in international practice have been successfully solved by application of forfeiting model. The forfeiting is a medium-term transaction mainly which basic subject is right to buy claim with maturity from 6 to 60 months, and mainly related to drafts. In essence, this transaction mean the purchase of securities in order to cover claims with maturity in future related to delivery of goods and services, mainly of export character without the owner's right to demand payment. The right to claim is based both on a draft (which is the most frequent subject of forfeiting because of its simple form and long tradition and on any other financial instrument. As a rule, the exporter is owner and seller of claim. He accept the draft as a cover for payment of exported goods or services in order to speed-up the collection, and transferring the risk of collection on forfeiter (any person buying a securities without the owner's right to demand payment from previous owner. As a compensation, he receive the reduced value of security and providing a necessary liquid assets immediately in that way. Buying a securities without the owner's right to demand payment from previous owner (exporter, the forfeiter accept all risks from exporter related to the collection in certain transaction.

  14. Quasi-market and cost-containment in Beveridge systems: the Lombardy model of Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenna, Elenka

    2011-12-01

    In the very recent past, the Lombardy health care system - established in 1997 on the quasi market model - has caught the interest of researchers and politicians in different OECD countries(1). Its merits, compared to other Italian regional systems, are the control of health care spending and the balanced budget, in a frame of good quality of services and patient choice. From the theoretical point of view, an appealing aspect of the Lombardy model is its gradual shift from a quasi market (QM) to a "quasi administered" system, which maintains all the typical features of the QM orientation - separation between purchasers and providers, the co-presence of public, not for profit and public providers, and patient free choice - but has deliberately sacrificed competition in order to control health expenditure. Another aspect of the Lombardy model is the sharp presence of private providers: the evidence that private sector is mainly concentrated in the long term care, where risks of complications are lower and financial remuneration is higher, suggests that a closer control should be exerted on hospital activity. Furthermore, possible distortions such as cream skimming and cherry picking by the private providers need more consideration. Another concern is linked to health spending control: equity issues could arise when observing a still relatively high share of private (out of pocket) health care expenditure. The paper stems from a literature review and tries to analyse the evolution of this regional system, the institutional path that brought to the implementation of the model, its theoretical basis, its merits and criticism. The period considered ranges from 1997, when the reform was enacted, to 2010. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The Risk Assessment Study for Electric Power Marketing Competitiveness Based on Cloud Model and TOPSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cunbin; Wang, Yi; Lin, Shuaishuai

    2017-09-01

    With the rapid development of the energy internet and the deepening of the electric power reform, the traditional marketing mode of electric power does not apply to most of electric power enterprises, so must seek a breakthrough, however, in the face of increasingly complex marketing information, how to make a quick, reasonable transformation, makes the electric power marketing competitiveness assessment more accurate and objective becomes a big problem. In this paper, cloud model and TOPSIS method is proposed. Firstly, build the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation index system. Then utilize the cloud model to transform the qualitative evaluation of the marketing data into quantitative values and use the entropy weight method to weaken the subjective factors of evaluation index weight. Finally, by TOPSIS method the closeness degrees of alternatives are obtained. This method provides a novel solution for the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation. Through the case analysis the effectiveness and feasibility of this model are verified.

  16. MCDA-C model for trade marketing performance evaluation: an illustrated case in the pharmaceutical sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Andrade Longaray

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Since its introduction in the early 1990s, trade marketing has played a significant role in companies and their distribution channels, focusing on the consolidation of marketing strategy at the point of purchase. In practice, one of the main obstacles for a more widespread use of trade marketing has been the lack of management tools allowing visualisation of the consequences of trade marketing in the organisation's objectives. This study shows the use of the Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding–Constructivist methodology model as an instrument of intervention in a case study conducted in a pharmaceutical company. A customised evaluation model was built interactively by interviewing decision makers to identify, organise, measure, and integrate those factors considered necessary and sufficient for the management of trade marketing. The constructed model enables executives to incorporate unique aspects of the company and the environment, expanding the possibilities for performance evaluation of trade marketing in the organisation.

  17. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-18

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.

  18. Libor and Swap Market Models for the Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives : An Empirical Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Pelsser, A.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we empirically analyze and compare the Libor and Swap Market Models, developed by Brace, Gatarek, and Musiela (1997) and Jamshidian (1997), using paneldata on prices of US caplets and swaptions.A Libor Market Model can directly be calibrated to observed prices of caplets, whereas a

  19. Estimating long-term volatility parameters for market-consistent models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contemporary actuarial and accounting practices (APN 110 in the South African context) require the use of market-consistent models for the valuation of embedded investment derivatives. These models have to be calibrated with accurate and up-to-date market data. Arguably, the most important variable in the valuation of ...

  20. A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the…

  1. Modelling (B, S-Markets, Subject to Aggressive Buying of Shares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elina A. Pilosyan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to modeling (B, S-market with a finite number of aggressive buyers of shares, a theoretical study of such models of markets, have developed an algorithm to calculate the hedging of portfolios of various financial obligations

  2. Early marketing matters : A time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, E.C.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides

  3. Language Implications for Advertising in International Markets: A Model for Message Content and Message Execution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beard, John; Yaprak, Attila

    A content analysis model for assessing advertising themes and messages generated primarily for United States markets to overcome barriers in the cultural environment of international markets was developed and tested. The model is based on three primary categories for generating, evaluating, and executing advertisements: rational, emotional, and…

  4. Marketing in SMEs: a '4Ps' self-branding model

    OpenAIRE

    Resnick, SM; Cheng, R; Simpson, M; Lourenço, F

    2016-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which traditional marketing theory and practice can be applied in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and consider how owner-managers perceive their own role in marketing within a small business setting. Design/methodology/approach – A qualitative exploratory approach using semi-structured in-depth interviews amongst owner-managers of SMEs in the UK. Findings – SME marketing is effective in that it embraces some relevant c...

  5. Strategic forward contracting in electricity markets: modelling and analysis by equilibrium method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wong, K.P.; Yu, C.W.; Chung, C.Y.

    2004-01-01

    Contractual arrangement plays an important role in mitigating market power in electricity markets. The issue of whether rational generators would voluntarily enter contract markets through a strategic incentive is examined, and the factors which could affect this strategic contracting behaviour. A two-stage game model is presented to formulate the competition of generators in bid-based pool spot markets and contract markets, as well as the interaction between these two markets. The affine supply function equilibrium (SFE) method is used to model competitive bidding for the spot market, while the contract market is modelled with the general conjectural variation method. The proposed methodology allows asymmetric, multiple strategic generators having capacity constraints and affine marginal costs with non-zero intercepts to be taken into account. It is shown that the presence of forward contract markets will complicate the solution to the affine SFE, and a new methodology is developed in this regard. Strategic contracting behaviours are analysed in the context of asymmetric, multiple strategic generators. A numerical example is used to verify theoretical results. It is shown that the observability of contract markets plays an important role in fostering generators' strategic contracting incentive, and that this contracting behaviour could also be affected by generators' cost parameters and demand elasticity. (author)

  6. Dynamic VaR Measurement of Gold Market with SV-T-MN Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenglan Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available VaR (Value at Risk in the gold market was measured and predicted by combining stochastic volatility (SV model with extreme value theory. Firstly, for the fat tail and volatility persistence characteristics in gold market return series, the gold price return volatility was modeled by SV-T-MN (SV-T with Mixture-of-Normal distribution model based on state space. Secondly, future sample volatility prediction was realized by using approximate filtering algorithm. Finally, extreme value theory based on generalized Pareto distribution was applied to measure dynamic risk value (VaR of gold market return. Through the proposed model on the price of gold, empirical analysis was investigated; the results show that presented combined model can measure and predict Value at Risk of the gold market reasonably and effectively and enable investors to further understand the extreme risk of gold market and take coping strategies actively.

  7. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C

    2011-04-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents who interact with each other and actively participate in an economically well-defined marketplace. Parameters of the model are optimized using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. The quantitative prediction capabilities of the proposed model are examined through data reproducibility using past data from the U.S. and Korean wireless service markets. Finally, we investigate a disruptive market event, namely the introduction of the iPhone into the U.S. in 2007 and the resulting changes in the modeling parameters. We predict and analyze the impacts of the introduction of the iPhone into the Korean wireless service market assuming a release date of 2Q09 based on earlier data. © 2011 IEEE.

  8. Using the Logistic Regression model in supporting decisions of establishing marketing strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristinel CONSTANTIN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is about an instrumental research regarding the using of Logistic Regression model for data analysis in marketing research. The decision makers inside different organisation need relevant information to support their decisions regarding the marketing strategies. The data provided by marketing research could be computed in various ways but the multivariate data analysis models can enhance the utility of the information. Among these models we can find the Logistic Regression model, which is used for dichotomous variables. Our research is based on explanation the utility of this model and interpretation of the resulted information in order to help practitioners and researchers to use it in their future investigations

  9. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  10. Three-Factor Market-Timing Models with Fama and French's Spread Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Olbryś

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The traditional performance measurement literature has attempted to distinguish security selection, or stock-picking ability, from market-timing, or the ability to predict overall market returns. However, the literature finds that it is not easy to separate ability into such dichotomous categories. Some researchers have developed models that allow the decomposition of manager performance into market-timing and selectivity skills. The main goal of this paper is to present modified versions of classical market-timing models with Fama and French’s spread variables SMB and HML, in the case of Polish equity mutual funds. (original abstract

  11. Marketing performance of subsidiaries operating abroad: An integrative model

    OpenAIRE

    Falcão, Roberto Flores; Masiero, Gilmar; Campomar, Marcos

    2017-01-01

    In the internationalization process firms face challenges in order to be successful, such as enabling knowledge transfer, finding the optimum balance between standardizing/adapting their marketing strategies, determining the strength of external networks, and deciding degrees of reverse innovation. Research on knowledge transfer in multinational firms has grown considerably over the last 15 years, but still little is known about its impact on the marketing performance of subsidiaries. The maj...

  12. Energy modeling and comparative assessment beyond the market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.-H.; Langlois, L.; McDonald, A.; Jalal, I.

    2004-01-01

    Market participants engage in constant comparative assessment of prices, available supplies, consumer options. Such implicit comparative assessment is a sine qua non for decision making in, and the smooth function of, competitive markets, but it is not always sufficient for policy makers who make decisions based on priorities other than or in addition to market prices. Supplementary mechanisms are needed to make explicit, to expose for consideration and to incorporate into their decision making processes, broader factors that are not necessarily reflected directly in the market price of a good or service. These would include, for example, employment, environment, national security or trade considerations. They would include long-term considerations, e.g., global warming or greatly diminished future supplies of oil and gas. This paper explores different applications of comparative assessment beyond the market, reviews different approaches for accomplishing such evaluations, and presents some tools available for conducting various types of extra-market comparative assessment, including those currently in use by Member States of the IAEA.(author)

  13. THE MODEL OF MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNAL MARKETING OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuliya Viktorovna Naurazbaeva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the research is the development of methods and models of management of the internal marketing of a higher education institute based on complex approach that includes strategic management methods and staff marketing and also technologies of Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP.Method or methodology of the research. Adapted models and methods of Neuro-Linguistic Programming, strategic management and marketing to management of marketing of the university which are presented as a complex of models that are reveling through the interrelation «external labor-market – higher education institute – internal labor-market».Results:1. The mechanism of management of the internal marketing of higher education institute based on the interrelation «external labor – market – higher education institute – internal labor-market» is offered that assumes solving problem of miscomparison between market conditions, university’s opportunities and demands of an employee of this educational institute.2. Methodical bases of formation of NLP-model that coordinates the requirements of labor collective as internal consumers of the educational service and needs of higher education institute in order to provide high quality services at all stages of creation and realization of an educational service are developed.3. The infological model of construction and choosing the strategy of the internal marketing of educational institute is presented.Practical implications. The received results can be used in practical management of higher education institute when forming the strategy of the internal marketing taking into account the specific features of concrete university.

  14. Model of high-tech businesses management under the trends of explicit and implicit knowledge markets: classification and business model

    OpenAIRE

    Guzel Isayevna Gumerova; Elmira Shamilevna Shaimieva

    2015-01-01

    Objective to define the notion of ldquohightech businessrdquo to elaborate classification of hightech businesses to elaborate the business model for hightech business management. Methods general scientific methods of theoretical and empirical cognition. Results the research presents a business model of hightech businesses management basing on the trends of explicit and explicit knowledge market with the dominating implicit knowledge market classification of hightech business...

  15. Destination Marketing through a Utility Business Model: The Case of Cyprus

    OpenAIRE

    Machlouzarides, Haris

    2009-01-01

    Traditional business models that used to govern the operations of travel and tourism businesses defined in a rigid way their functional areas and the relationships among them. The advent of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) has driven the transformation of these business models into novel destination marketing models. The Cyprus Tourism Organisation (CTO) recognising the need of establishing an explicit model for managing the process of destination marketing has developed an in...

  16. Differences Awareness Model to Fundament Long Term Strategy Extension in a New Emerging Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Mădălina ŞERBAN

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The globalization opened the opportunity for multinational companies to increase their businesses in emerging markets and also to local giants from developing countries to step in the western markets. The objective of this paper is to propose a model for analyzing the differences between operating businesses in emerging markets and developed markets. The model purpose is to be applied in the strategic process by mainly the multinationals or local giants intending to develop long term businesses outside their traditional geographies. The studies on emerging markets identified two main axes to be considered when appreciating the attractiveness of the markets: the business dynamics both inside and outside the company and the institutional environment, as facilitator of efficient encounter between sellers and buyers.

  17. Simulating GenCo bidding strategies in electricity markets with an agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Thimmapuram, Prakash R.; Yamakado, Malo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we use an agent-based simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze market power in electricity markets. We focus on the effect of congestion management on the ability of generating companies (GenCos) to raise prices beyond competitive levels. An 11-node test power system is used to compare a market design based on locational marginal pricing with a market design that uses system marginal pricing and congestion management by counter trading. Bidding strategies based on both physical and economic withholding are compared to a base case with production cost bidding. The results show that unilateral market power is exercised under both pricing mechanisms. However, the largest changes in consumer costs and GenCo profits due to strategic bidding occur under the locational marginal pricing scheme. The analysis also illustrates that agent-based modeling can contribute important insights into the complex interactions between the participants in transmission-constrained electricity markets. (Author)

  18. The model of the protection of rights concerning financial institutions and their clients in the field of the EU financial supervision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrycja Zawadzka

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to consider the EU system of protection of rights of a broadly understood financial institutions and users of financial services. A comprehensive description of client protection would considerably exceed the framework of this paper. Nevertheless, the author addresses two issues: firstly, a model of verification concerning financial market decisions, which was adopted by the EU and, secondly, a normative position of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU in the EU legal system. It essential to show a relationship between the European Supervisory Authorities and the CJEU, as well as the practice heretofore regarding an application of the law within the scope of this article.

  19. A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...... with the higher mean and lower variance; bull market duration is found to be negatively dependent on short-term interest rates and positively on the interest rate spread, while bear market duration depends positively the short-term interest rate and negatively on the interest rate spread....

  20. Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2011-01-01

    Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

  1. A study of the spreading scheme for viral marketing based on a complex network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianmei; Yao, Canzhong; Ma, Weicheng; Chen, Guanrong

    2010-02-01

    Buzzword-based viral marketing, known also as digital word-of-mouth marketing, is a marketing mode attached to some carriers on the Internet, which can rapidly copy marketing information at a low cost. Viral marketing actually uses a pre-existing social network where, however, the scale of the pre-existing network is believed to be so large and so random, so that its theoretical analysis is intractable and unmanageable. There are very few reports in the literature on how to design a spreading scheme for viral marketing on real social networks according to the traditional marketing theory or the relatively new network marketing theory. Complex network theory provides a new model for the study of large-scale complex systems, using the latest developments of graph theory and computing techniques. From this perspective, the present paper extends the complex network theory and modeling into the research of general viral marketing and develops a specific spreading scheme for viral marking and an approach to design the scheme based on a real complex network on the QQ instant messaging system. This approach is shown to be rather universal and can be further extended to the design of various spreading schemes for viral marketing based on different instant messaging systems.

  2. A model of the European electricity market. What can we learn from a geographical expansion to EU20?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, W.; Hobbs, B.F.

    2005-09-01

    This paper presents the static computational game theoretic COMPETES (COmprehensive Market Power in Electricity Transmission and Energy Simulator) model version 2.0. This model can be used to study various policy question regarding economic and environmental effects of a fully opened European electricity market. The COMPETES model can take strategic interaction among electricity producing firms into account. The strategic behaviour of generation companies can be reflected in the conjectures each company holds regarding the supply response of rival companies. These response functions simulate expectations concerning how rivals will change their electricity sales when prices change; these expectations determine the perceived profitability of capacity withholding and other strategies. In addition, COMPETES can solve the market outcome under price and quantity competition. COMPETES can also represent different systems of transmission pricing, among them fixed transmission tariffs, congestion-based pricing of physical transmission, and auction pricing of interface capacity between countries. CO2 costs can be brought in as an exogenous variable. In this paper the COMPETES model is calibrated to twenty European countries, EU20 for short, namely Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK/England and Wales. These countries have been chosen because they are geographically adjoined, their electricity networks are well connected (UCTE, Nord Pool, UK), they are members of the European Union (except for Norway and Switzerland) and data is quite reliable (which would for instance not be the case for the Balkan countries). The level of detail in the COMPETES model is quite extensive. The model contains various characteristics of 7531 power plants in the EU20 area (acquired from the database on World Energy Power Plants). These

  3. The Food Marketing Defense Model: Integrating Psychological Research to Protect Youth and Inform Public Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Jennifer L.; Brownell, Kelly D.; Bargh, John A.

    2009-01-01

    Marketing practices that promote calorie-dense, nutrient-poor foods directly to children and adolescents present significant public health risk. Worldwide, calls for government action and industry change to protect young people from the negative effects of food marketing have increased. Current proposals focus on restricting television advertising to children under 12 years old, but current psychological models suggest that much more is required. All forms of marketing pose considerable risk;...

  4. An Export-Marketing Model for Pharmaceutical Firms (The Case of Iran)

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

    2013-01-01

    Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalizati...

  5. DISCRIMINATION OF WOMEN IN THE LABOUR MARKET OF SR AND MODELS OF DISCRIMINATION

    OpenAIRE

    Ján Vravec; Radovan Baèík

    2012-01-01

    IThe paper deals with the problem of women’s discrimination in the labour market. Significant differences, among women and men in the labour market, are especially in unemployment rate in reward system, and high horizontal and vertical segregation of women. The aspects of discrimination arise despite of existing legislation, which gender discrimination strictly prohibits. An analysis of arguments, consequences and models of women’s discrimination in the labour market can significantly help to...

  6. Teachers' Understanding of and Concerns about Mathematical Modeling in the Common Core Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Nancy Butler

    2013-01-01

    Educational reform is most likely to be successful when teachers are knowledgeable about the intended reform, and when their concerns about the reform are understood and addressed. The Common Core State Standards (CCSS) is an effort to establish a set of nationwide expectations for students and teachers. This study examined teacher understanding…

  7. [Application of Markov model in post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Su, Xia; Sun, Wentao; Xie, Yanming; Wang, Yongyan

    2011-10-01

    In post-marketing study of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), pharmacoeconomic evaluation has an important applied significance. However, the economic literatures of TCM have been unable to fully and accurately reflect the unique overall outcomes of treatment with TCM. For the special nature of TCM itself, we recommend that Markov model could be introduced into post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation of TCM, and also explore the feasibility of model application. Markov model can extrapolate the study time horizon, suit with effectiveness indicators of TCM, and provide measurable comprehensive outcome. In addition, Markov model can promote the development of TCM quality of life scale and the methodology of post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation.

  8. Time delay and profit accumulation effect on a mine-based uranium market clearing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auzans, Aris; Teder, Allan; Tkaczyk, Alan H.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Improved version of a mine-based uranium market clearing model for the front-end uranium market and enrichment industries is proposed. • A profit accumulation algorithm and time delay function provides more realistic uranium mine decision making process. • Operational decision delay increased uranium market price volatility. - Abstract: The mining industry faces a number of challenges such as market volatility, investment safety, issues surrounding employment and productivity. Therefore, computer simulations are highly relevant in order to reduce financial risks associated with these challenges. In the mining industry, each firm must compete with other mines and the basic target is profit maximization. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the world uranium (U) supply by simulating financial management challenges faced by an individual U mine that are caused by a variety of regulation issues. In this paper front-end nuclear fuel cycle tool is used to simulate market conditions and the effects they have on the stability of U supply. An individual U mine’s exit or entry in the market might cause changes in the U supply side which can increase or decrease the market price. In this paper we offer a more advanced version of a mine-based U market clearing model. The existing U market model incorporates the market of primary U from uranium mines with secondary uranium (depleted uranium DU), enriched uranium (HEU) and enrichment services. In the model each uranium mine acts as an independent agent that is able to make operational decisions based on the market price. This paper introduces a more realistic decision making algorithm of individual U mine that adds constraints to production decisions. The authors added an accumulated profit model, which allows for the profits accumulated to cover any possible future economic losses and the time-delay algorithm to simulate delayed process of reopening a U mine. The U market simulation covers time period 2010

  9. Time delay and profit accumulation effect on a mine-based uranium market clearing model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auzans, Aris [Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Ostwaldi 1, EE-50411 Tartu (Estonia); Teder, Allan [School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu, Narva mnt 4, EE-51009 Tartu (Estonia); Tkaczyk, Alan H., E-mail: alan@ut.ee [Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Ostwaldi 1, EE-50411 Tartu (Estonia)

    2016-12-15

    Highlights: • Improved version of a mine-based uranium market clearing model for the front-end uranium market and enrichment industries is proposed. • A profit accumulation algorithm and time delay function provides more realistic uranium mine decision making process. • Operational decision delay increased uranium market price volatility. - Abstract: The mining industry faces a number of challenges such as market volatility, investment safety, issues surrounding employment and productivity. Therefore, computer simulations are highly relevant in order to reduce financial risks associated with these challenges. In the mining industry, each firm must compete with other mines and the basic target is profit maximization. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the world uranium (U) supply by simulating financial management challenges faced by an individual U mine that are caused by a variety of regulation issues. In this paper front-end nuclear fuel cycle tool is used to simulate market conditions and the effects they have on the stability of U supply. An individual U mine’s exit or entry in the market might cause changes in the U supply side which can increase or decrease the market price. In this paper we offer a more advanced version of a mine-based U market clearing model. The existing U market model incorporates the market of primary U from uranium mines with secondary uranium (depleted uranium DU), enriched uranium (HEU) and enrichment services. In the model each uranium mine acts as an independent agent that is able to make operational decisions based on the market price. This paper introduces a more realistic decision making algorithm of individual U mine that adds constraints to production decisions. The authors added an accumulated profit model, which allows for the profits accumulated to cover any possible future economic losses and the time-delay algorithm to simulate delayed process of reopening a U mine. The U market simulation covers time period 2010

  10. Interaction among competitive producers in the electricity market: An iterative market model for the strategic management of thermal power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carraretto, Cristian; Zigante, Andrea

    2006-01-01

    The liberalization of the electricity sector requires utilities to develop sound operation strategies for their power plants. In this paper, attention is focused on the problem of optimizing the management of the thermal power plants belonging to a strategic producer that competes with other strategic companies and a set of smaller non-strategic ones in the day-ahead market. The market model suggested here determines an equilibrium condition over the selected period of analysis, in which no producer can increase profits by changing its supply offers given all rivals' bids. Power plants technical and operating constraints are considered. An iterative procedure, based on the dynamic programming, is used to find the optimum production plans of each producer. Some combinations of power plants and number of producers are analyzed, to simulate for instance the decommissioning of old expensive power plants, the installation of new more efficient capacity, the severance of large dominant producers into smaller utilities, the access of new producers to the market. Their effect on power plants management, market equilibrium, electricity quantities traded and prices is discussed. (author)

  11. The Nordic power exchange Nord pool and the Nordic model for a liberalised power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houmoller, A. P.

    2000-01-01

    As the first countries in the world, the Nordic countries Norway, Sweden, Finland and denmark have established a common, multinational power exchange. By means of this common power exchange, these countries also have established a common power market. this is also the first - and for the time being - the only place in the world, where you can find a multinational, truly competitive power market. This Nordic model has attracted much interest from other countries in Europe, Asia, North America and South America. The presentation will explain, how the common power exchange makes it possible for the four countries and the five system operators in Scandinavia physically and financially to operate a common, multinational, competitive power market. The presentation will explain how this systems works in the Nordic countries by discussion the following items: - The non-commercial players: The Transmission System Operators and the local grid operators; - The market players: the producers, the retailers, the traders, the brokers and the end users; - The access to the grid: The point tariff system; - The fairness towards the market players and the security of supply: The balancing power and the regulating power; - The power exchange handles bottlenecks in the grid. The presentation will explain how this is done and will demonstrate how this gives the power market a bottleneck handing method which:- Is neutral and fair towards all the market players, - Ensures that all the capacity of any bottleneck is utilised during every hour of operation, - Is extremely easy to use for the Transmission System Operators - also if the bottleneck is cross-border bottleneck; - The Nord Pool spot market Elspot; - The Nord Pool futures market Eltermin; - Area prices; - How financial contracts replace physical contracts when the power market is liberalised; - The day-to-day market and the market for long-term contracts in a liberalised power market; - How to eliminate the c ounter party risk

  12. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

    2012-05-29

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

  13. Marketing marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Karel Jan van Alsem

    2013-01-01

    In deze installatierede betoogt Karel Jan Alsem dat marketing een grotere strategische rol in organisaties zou moeten krijgen. Want marketing is bij uitstek de verbinding tussen klantwensen en het DNA van een organisatie. Doordat merken gemiddeld voor mensen niet heel belangrijk zijn, is goede

  14. MODELING THE PROCESS OF ASSIMILATION AND OPERATIONALIZATION OF THE CONCEPT OF MARKETING BY ROMANIAN LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminita Zait

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a model that wants to offer some pertinent answers about the process of assimilation and operationalization of the marketing concept in the practice of local organizations in Romania. Considering the reality of organizational practice in Romania, which revealed a lack of consistency in the approach of assimilation and operationalization of the marketing concept, the model tries to capture a range of factors that determine and explain this phenomenon. Reality shows that many Romanian organizations either do not perceive the need and importance of marketing in their activity or assimilate and develop a priori, actions carried out by transnational companies that do not meet the particular context of the Romanian market and / or of internal environment. The model attempts to capture the peculiarities of the process of assimilation and operationalization of the concept of marketing in local organizations and describe the characteristics of each identified organizational structures.

  15. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2008-01-01

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  16. Research on Capacity Addition using Market Model with Transmission Congestion under Competitive Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsura, Yasufumi; Attaviriyanupap, Pathom; Kataoka, Yoshihiko

    In this research, the fundamental premises for deregulation of the electric power industry are reevaluated. The authors develop a simple model to represent wholesale electricity market with highly congested network. The model is developed by simplifying the power system and market in New York ISO based on available data of New York ISO in 2004 with some estimation. Based on the developed model and construction cost data from the past, the economic impact of transmission line addition on market participants and the impact of deregulation on power plant additions under market with transmission congestion are studied. Simulation results show that the market signals may fail to facilitate proper capacity additions and results in the undesirable over-construction and insufficient-construction cycle of capacity addition.

  17. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lise, Wietze [IBS Research and Consultancy, Aga Han, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir, 34433 Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Ames Hall 313, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2008-07-15

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  18. Performance Marketing Model through Acculturation Innovation and Market Orientation in the Bakery Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutarlan SULISTIYANI

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs have their own superiority in which they pervade not only in terms of human resources, but also in their role in national economic development. The aim of this study is to develop acculturation innovation and competing superiority for increasing the marketing development of the bakery business actors in Central Java. This study’s sample consists of 161 respondents who are bakery business owners from Central Java. By using the purposive sampling technique, several criteria were considered for the SMEs representatives from the bakery industry sample, such as the SMEs must be certified at Disperindag, have at least one employee, and invest at least IDR 1.000.000,- . The analyzing method that is used in this study is SEM. The result of the study shows the market orientation with specific dimensions, such as gaining information about the customers’ needs, competitors’ powers, and functions’ coordination affected competitors’ superiority, and acculturation innovation. While it comes to some dimensions such as changes in culture-based products, culture-based price’ changing, culture-based packaging, and production processes, competing superiority is affected.

  19. Agent-based model of intermittent renewables : Simulating emerging changes in energy markets in transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Viebahn, P.; Richstein, J.C.; Lechtenböhmer, S.; Nebel, A.

    2012-01-01

    The energy transition is taking shape in the German and, to a lesser extent also its neighbouring electricity markets. We have proposed adaptations to an existing model to represent the increasing shares of intermittent renewables, that may alter the structure of the market and the viability of

  20. A Semiotic Model of Destination Representations Applied to Cultural and Heritage Tourism Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pennington, Jody; Thomsen, Robert Chr.

    2010-01-01

    , and symbolic qualities, each of which destination marketers should consider in choosing representations because of the influence those qualities exert on reception. It is argued that the semiotic model can help marketers make informed decisions about the relevance and probable impact of the iconicity...