Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

Successful innovation of prescription drugs requires a substantial amount of marketing support. There is, however, much concern about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand of pharmaceutical products (Manchanda et al., Market Lett 16(3/4):293-308, 2005). For example, excessive marketing

An econometric model of the South African stock market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Moolman

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically.  However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse.  This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination.  The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.

Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

2006-01-01

In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

77 FR 38553 - Proposed Modification to Regulation Concerning the Use of Market Economy Input Prices in...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-28

... Regulation Concerning the Use of Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings AGENCY: Import... states that the Department normally will use the price that a nonmarket economy (``NME'') producer pays to a market economy supplier when a factor of production is purchased from a market economy supplier...

The Displacement Effect of Labour-Market Programs: Estimates from the MONASH Model

OpenAIRE

Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer

2005-01-01

A key question concerning labour-market programs is the extent to which they generate jobs for their target group at the expense of others. This effect is measured by displacement percentages. We describe a version of the MONASH model designed to quantify the effects of labour-market programs. Our simulation results suggests that: (1) labour-market programs can generate significant long-run increases in employment; (2) displacement percentages depend on how a labour-market program affects the...

Financial equilibrium with career concerns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amil Dasgupta

2006-03-01

Full Text Available What are the equilibrium features of a financial market where a sizeable proportion of traders face reputational concerns? This question is central to our understanding of financial markets, which are increasingly dominated by institutional investors. We construct a model of delegated portfolio management that captures key features of the US mutual fund industry and embed it in an asset pricing framework. We thus provide a formal model of financial equilibrium with career concerned agents. Fund managers differ in their ability to understand market fundamentals, and in every period investors choose a fund. In equilibrium, the presence of career concerns induces uninformed fund managers to churn, i.e., to engage in trading even when they face a negative expected return. Churners act as noise traders and enhance the level of trading volume. The equilibrium relationship between fund return and net fund flows displays a skewed shape that is consistent with stylized facts. The robustness of our core results is probed from several angles.

MARKETING MODELS APPLICATION EXPERIENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Yu. Rymanov

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Marketing models are used for the assessment of such marketing elements as sales volume, market share, market attractiveness, advertizing costs, product pushing and selling, profit, profitableness. Classification of buying process decision taking models is presented. SWOT- and GAPbased models are best for selling assessments. Lately, there is a tendency to transfer from the assessment on the ba-sis of financial indices to that on the basis of those non-financial. From the marketing viewpoint, most important are long-term company activities and consumer drawingmodels as well as market attractiveness operative models.

Modeling market power in Korea's emerging power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Nam-sung; Niemeyer, Victor

2007-01-01

The Korean power market is being formed from the unbundled generation, transmission and distribution assets of Korea Electric Power Corporation. The KEPCO generation has been allocated to six independent gencos with a combined generating capacity of 46,629 MW in 2002. This gave an 11% margin over the peak load that year (41,921 MW). One of the concerns for any power market is whether individual participants can increase profits (and prices) by withholding generation from the market. To address this concern, a Cournot-based model of Korean power system was created and applied to a set of loads representing the load duration curve for Korea's system loads in 2002. Our simulation results show a strong possibility for exercise of market power to increase market price in Korean market. Under tight market conditions, even 1 GW of withholding can cause a large increase in market price. If loads unexpectedly grow faster than the 5% recent experience, the gencos will have the collective ability and incentive to spike prices further. Vesting contracts can reduce the incentive to act strategically. Requiring that the gencos offer 50% of their capacity in long-term forward contracts greatly reduces the payoff to act strategically, and requiring vesting for 75% of their capacity results in prices that are essentially the same as the competitive equilibrium. Depending on the price for the vesting contracts, this policy can reduce the incentives to add new generation by gencos or the competitive fringe. Another approach to reducing the effects of market power is establishing demand-response programs, simulated here by increasing the elasticity of overall demand. These programs can reduce the incentives to withhold capacity, but to a lesser degree than vesting contracts. The genco with the greatest ability to influence prices through withholding is the largest, KNHP. However, acting on its own, without the support of the other gencos, its ability to raise prices is limited. This

Application of Markowitz Model on Romanian Stock Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zavera Ioana Coralia

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Performance evaluation of financial instruments has become a concern for more and more economists, while security trading activities have developed over time. “Modern portfolio theory” comprises statistical and mathematical models which describe various ways in order to evaluate and especially analyse profitability and risk of these portfolios. This article offers an application of this type of model on Romanian stock market, the Markowitz model, by focusing on portfolios comprising three securities, and determining the efficient frontier and the minimum variance portfolio.

New Brunswick Market Design Committee : market design issues paper : choice of market model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

A model for the competitive electricity market in New Brunswick was not specified by the White Paper: New Brunswick Energy Policy, published in March 2001. One of the tasks of the Market Design Committee (MDC) is to select a market model for the province. This report was prepared with this objective in mind. It begins by providing a description of the basic functions that must be performed by any electricity system. Different market models will function differently, and a descriptions of how the functions would be performed under each model is presented. Considering the specific size and geographic location of New Brunswick, a number of actual markets that could be of interest are presented. The various electricity markets normally use one of four market models: vertically integrated monopoly utility, a competitive pool market, a bilateral contract market, and a single-buyer market. The first model was not explained as it represents the existing, non-competitive model whereby the government owns and/or regulates price and investment decision. The case where a market operator receives bids and offers from buyers and sellers and matches them to derive a price and schedule for the spot market is what is called the competitive pool market. When electricity trade takes place through a series of contracts between individual buyers and sellers, it is referred to as a bilateral contract market. Finally, the single-buyer market is defined as a monopoly where the buyer purchases from multiple sellers based on competition amongst them. Different examples are provided of applications of the three markets described in the paper. Both New England and New Zealand were chosen to better illustrate the concepts of a fully competitive pool-based market, as they either have close ties to New Brunswick, or share physical similarities. The single-buyer model is illustrated by the case of Northern Ireland where size is similar. The choices made in Quebec were described in the final

Gas analysis modeling system forecast for the Energy Modeling Forum North American Natural Gas Market Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mariner-Volpe, B.; Trapmann, W.

1989-01-01

The Gas Analysis Modeling System is a large computer-based model for analyzing the complex US natural gas industry, including production, transportation, and consumption activities. The model was developed and first used in 1982 after the passage of the NGPA, which initiated a phased decontrol of most natural gas prices at the wellhead. The categorization of gas under the NGPA and the contractual nature of the natural gas market, which existed at the time, were primary factors in the development of the basic structure of the model. As laws and regulations concerning the natural gas market have changed, the model has evolved accordingly. Recent increases in competition in the wellhead market have also led to changes in the model. GAMS produces forecasts of natural gas production, consumption, and prices annually through 2010. It is an engineering-economic model that incorporates several different mathematical structures in order to represent the interaction of the key groups involved in the natural gas market. GAMS has separate supply and demand components that are equilibrated for each year of the forecast by means of a detailed transaction network

Simulation based decision support for strategic communication and marketing management concerning the consumer introduction of smart energy meters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeroen STRAGIER

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Communication and marketing professionals make strategic decisions in highly complex and dynamic contexts. These decisions are highly uncertain on the outcome and process level when, for example, consumer behaviour is at stake. Decision support systems can provide insights in these levels of uncertainty and the professional process of decision making. However, literature describing decision support tools for strategic communication and marketing management that provide clear insights in uncertainty levels is lacking. This study therefore aims at developing a consumer behaviour simulation module as an important element of such a future decision support tool. The consumer behaviour simulation we propose in this paper is based on data collected from a survey among 386 households with which a behavioural change model was calibrated. We show how various decision scenarios for strategic communication and marketing challenges can be explored and how such a simulation based decision support system can facilitate strategic communication and marketing management concerning the introduction of a smart energy meter.

Project-matrix models of marketing organization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gutić Dragutin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

2003-01-01

textabstractTo comprehend the competitive structure of a market, it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on market shares. A useful model to link market shares with marketing-mix variables, like price and promotion, is the market share attraction model.

Towards an E-market Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ivang, Reimer; Hinson, Robert; Somasundaram, Ramanathan

2006-01-01

on the literature survey and ídentification of gaps in the present e-market definitive models, the authors postulate a preliminary e-market reference model. Originality/ Value: Through synthesizing the e-market literature, and by taking into account contemporary e-market developments, key dimensions that define......Purpose: Seeks to argue that there are problems associated with e-market definitive efforts and consequently seeks proposes a new e-market model. Design/methodology/Approach: Paper based largely on literature survey and an assessment of the existing e-market conceptualizations. Findings: Based...

Synthesised model of market orientation-business performance relationship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Nwokah

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation. While much empirical works have centered on market orientation, the generalisability of its impact on performance of the Food and Beverages organisations in the Nigeria context has been under-researched. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study adopted a triangulation methodology (quantitative and qualitative approach. Data was collected from key informants using a research instrument. Returned instruments were analyzed using nonparametric correlation through the use of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 10. Findings: The study validated the earlier instruments but did not find any strong association between market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context using the food and beverages organisations for the study. The reasons underlying the weak relationship between market orientation and business performance of the Food and Beverages organisations is government policies, new product development, diversification, innovation and devaluation of the Nigerian currency. One important finding of this study is that market orientation leads to business performance through some moderating variables. Implications: The study recommends that Nigerian Government should ensure a stable economy and make economic policies that will enhance existing business development in the country. Also, organisations should have performance measurement systems to detect the impact of investment on market orientation with the aim of knowing how the organisation works. Originality/Value: This study significantly refines the body of knowledge concerning the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation, and thereby offers a model of market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context for marketing scholars and practitioners. This model will, no doubt, contribute to the body of

What moves the European carbon market? Insights from conditional jump models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gronwald, Marc; Ketterer, Janina [Munich Univ. (Germany). Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

2012-04-15

This paper is concerned with carbon price volatility and the underlying causes of large price movements in the European emissions trading market. Based on the application of a combined jump-GARCH model the behavior of EUA prices is characterized. The jump- GARCH model explains the unsteady carbon price movement well and, moreover, shows that between 40 and 60 percent of the carbon price variance are triggered by jumps. Information regarding EUA supply and news from international carbon markets are identified as important drivers of these price spikes. These results can lead regulators the way if smoother carbon prices are desired.

THE SPORT MARKETING MANAGEMENT MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandru Lucian MIHAI

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Sport marketing involves marketing fundamentals applied in one industry, the sport business industry. The development of sport marketing fundamentals is therefore based on basic marketing principles. The practice and activities of sport marketing are also based on basic marketing activities, but are modified and adapted to the sport business industry. Therefore, sport marketing is based on its primary and parent discipline - marketing. Sport marketing is one of the most important functions of a sport business. This is because the sport marketing activities will define the business. The growth of the sport industry is phenomenal and shows no signs of slowing. Also, sport marketing is a process. A process is a continuous cycle. Therefore, marketing is a function that never ends. The sport marketing management model is an illustration of the elements and process of sport marketing. It should serve as a guide for managing the company’s marketing functions. The model illustrates the elements of marketing, the succession of elements and functions, the process of managing, and the interdependence of the elements This paper presents an overview of the model, sport marketing management, each element and the process.

Co-Marketing Capability and its Impact on Marketing Allinace Performance

OpenAIRE

Schögel, Marcus; Herhausen, Dennis

2010-01-01

The aim of this paper is to conceptualize co-marketing capability (CMC) and to explore its relationship to marketing alliance performance. Drawing on a literature review, in-depth interviews with marketing alliance managers and consulting experience concerning co-marketing alliances, we established a multidimensional model of CMC. Using data from 287 chief marketing officers, we empirically show that the identified CMC is an important source of competitive advantage in terms of marketing alli...

75 FR 27552 - Credit Reforms in Organized Wholesale Electric Markets; Further Notice Concerning Technical...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-17

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. RM10-13-000] Credit Reforms in Organized Wholesale Electric Markets; Further Notice Concerning Technical Conference May 10, 2010... technical conference related to the Commission's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Credit Reforms in...

Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Wierenga (Berend)

2008-01-01

textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

MODEL OF MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS EFFECTIVENESS IN THE BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS MARKETS

OpenAIRE

Jerman, Damjana; Završnik, Bruno

2012-01-01

Much of the research into marketing communications has focused on the consumer market with little regard to date for the business-to-business market. This paper focuses on a development and testing of a model of marketing communication effectiveness in the business-to-business market. Building on past research from the marketing communications and business-to-business marketing literature, the model (which incorporates facets of the marketing communication objectives, bidirectional communicat...

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

2011-04-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

Modelling Market Dynamics with a "Market Game"

Science.gov (United States)

Katahira, Kei; Chen, Yu

In the financial market, traders, especially speculators, typically behave as to yield capital gains by the difference between selling and buying prices. Making use of the structure of Minority Game, we build a novel market toy model which takes account of such the speculative mind involving a round-trip trade to analyze the market dynamics as a system. Even though the micro-level behavioral rules of players in this new model is quite simple, its macroscopic aggregational output has the reproducibility of the well-known stylized facts such as volatility clustering and heavy tails. The proposed model may become a new alternative bottom-up approach in order to study the emerging mechanism of those stylized qualitative properties of asset returns.

Modeling of the influence of transparency of the derivatives market on financial depth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Burdenko

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The market of derivative tools becomes an integral part of the financial market, the functions which are carrying out in it peculiar only to it: hedging, distribution of risks, ensuring liquidity of basic assets, information support of future movement of the prices, decrease in asymmetry of information in the financial markets. However, the insufficiency or lack of transparent information can lead to emergence of the crisis phenomena, shocks in the financial market and growth of system risk. Emergence of need for strengthening of information function of the market of derivatives changes of requirements to transparency of information had been caused by financial crisis of 2008-2009. In this article the attempt of an assessment of influence was made by means of autoregressive models the change of requirements to standard transparency, such as qualitative characteristic of the derivatives market, on quantitative indices of the financial market, in particular financial depth. The results of research demonstrate that reforming of the legislation concerning strengthening of transparency in the derivatives market positively influences the growth of financial depth. The research of this question will promote the best understanding of importance of reforming of regulation of the derivatives market, in particular strengthening of requirements to transparency. Recommendations of the further researches concern the needs of input of reforms of financial regulation in the derivatives market in Ukraine, and, thus, to provide the corresponding conditions for his development

Concepts and models. The common market for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moraing, M.; Scholz, U.

1993-01-01

The discussion and debate concerning opening-up the European energy market to competition are complicated and difficult to sort out. The Council of Ministers rejected the EC Commission's proposals last November, and now the Commission is expected to produce new initiatives. This fall, the European Parliament will deliberate on a counter-proposal of its energy committee. The authors of the article, use the situation in Germany as a basis for an overview of the most important models currently being discusses. (orig.) [de

Green certificates and market power in the Nordic power market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amundsen, Eirik S; Bergman, Lars

2012-01-01

principles and a numerical model based on that to investigate the Swedish TGC market operating in a setting of a common Nordic electricity market. The analysis shows that Swedish producers may exercise market power using the TGC-market but that this problem will be eliminated by opening the TGC-market......The purpose of this study is to elucidate under which circumstances, how, and to what extent market power on a Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) market can be used to affect an entire electricity market. There are basically two reasons for being concerned with this. One is that a small number...

Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jolita Jezukevičiūtė

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalysis of a single case study revealed a brand marketingsocial networking tools that affect consumers the most. Basedon information analysis and methodological studies, develop abrand marketing model on social networks.

Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallo, Giulia [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-12-18

The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One option includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.

Regression Models for Market-Shares

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Birch, Kristina; Olsen, Jørgen Kai; Tjur, Tue

2005-01-01

On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put on the interpretat......On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put...... on the interpretation of the parameters in relation to models for the total sales based on discrete choice models.Key words and phrases. MCI model, discrete choice model, market-shares, price elasitcity, regression model....

Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

OpenAIRE

Jolita Jezukevičiūtė; Vida Davidavičienė

2014-01-01

The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalys...

Power system models - A description of power markets and outline of market modelling in Wilmar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meibom, P.; Morthors, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Weber, C.; Snader, K.; Swider, D.; Ravn, H.

2003-12-01

This report is Deliverable 3.2 of the Wilmar project. The report describes the power markets in the Nordic countries and Germany, together with the market models to be implemented in the Wilmar Planning model-ling tool developed in the project. (au)

Brand marketing model on social networks

OpenAIRE

Jezukevičiūtė, Jolita; Davidavičienė, Vida

2014-01-01

Paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions on social networks. This analysis led to the creation of improved brand marketing model on social networks, which will contribute to the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increase competitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore, the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hot research area for brand marketing model on social networks. The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratory an...

Green Tourism Marketing Model1

OpenAIRE

Hasan, Ali

2015-01-01

Green Tourism Marketing Model research as efforts to develop environmentally friendly tourism destination, the synergy of government, business and community participation become the driving force of tourism product development with highly competitive. In the long term, this research aims to provide the marketing concept of green tourism as economic development efforts and strengthen the environment (eco-growth) through the development of green tourism marketing models. The ...

Modeling of market segmentation for new IT product development

Science.gov (United States)

Nasiopoulos, Dimitrios K.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Mavrogianni, Amanda

2015-02-01

Businesses from all Information Technology sectors use market segmentation[1] in their product development[2] and strategic planning[3]. Many studies have concluded that market segmentation is considered as the norm of modern marketing. With the rapid development of technology, customer needs are becoming increasingly diverse. These needs can no longer be satisfied by a mass marketing approach and follow one rule. IT Businesses can face with this diversity by pooling customers[4] with similar requirements and buying behavior and strength into segments. The result of the best choices about which segments are the most appropriate to serve can then be made, thus making the best of finite resources. Despite the attention which segmentation gathers and the resources that are invested in it, growing evidence suggests that businesses have problems operationalizing segmentation[5]. These problems take various forms. There may have been a rule that the segmentation process necessarily results in homogeneous groups of customers for whom appropriate marketing programs and procedures for dealing with them can be developed. Then the segmentation process, that a company follows, can fail. This increases concerns about what causes segmentation failure and how it might be overcome. To prevent the failure, we created a dynamic simulation model of market segmentation[6] based on the basic factors leading to this segmentation.

Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

OpenAIRE

Wierenga, Berend

2008-01-01

textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of whether they could be solved with a known OR technique. The field of marketing models developed its own identity and became an important academic field (Wierenga 2008b). Somewhat later the term "marke...

Motor Gasoline Market Model documentation report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Motor Gasoline Market Model (MGMM), describe its basic approach and to provide detail on model functions. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. The MGMM performs a short-term (6- to 9-month) forecast of demand and price for motor gasoline in the US market; it also calculates end of month stock levels. The model is used to analyze certain market behavior assumptions or shocks and to determine the effect on market price, demand and stock level

STUDY REGARDING THE ASSETS EVALUATION ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET THROUGH THE C.A.P.M. MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae Baltes

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM was introduced through the works of William Sharpe (1964, John Lintner (1965 and Jan Mossin (1966 based on the research of Henry Markovitz. Due to the independent formulation of the model by these three american researchers, there are in the literature references to the Security Market Line (SML model of financial assets evaluation. CAPM model, revolutionized the financial theory, highlighting the link between the rentability of the individual securities and the rentability of the financial market. The first fundamental hypothesis of the model is that investors are concerned about the expected rentability closely related to the risk associated with it. Consequently, under equilibrium conditions of the financial market, the CAPM model highlights a linear relationship between the expected rentability of the portfolio and the amount of risk assumed by investors.

Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

Yamada, Kenta; Takayasu, Hideki; Ito, Takatoshi; Takayasu, Misako

2009-05-01

We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects: the self-modulation of transaction intervals and a forecasting tendency, which uses a moving average of the latest market price changes. Based on the present microscopic model of markets, we find a quantitative relation with market potential forces, which have recently been discovered in the study of market price modeling based on random walks.

Market Competitiveness Evaluation of Mechanical Equipment with a Pairwise Comparisons Hierarchical Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Fujun

2016-01-01

This paper provides a description of how market competitiveness evaluations concerning mechanical equipment can be made in the context of multi-criteria decision environments. It is assumed that, when we are evaluating the market competitiveness, there are limited number of candidates with some required qualifications, and the alternatives will be pairwise compared on a ratio scale. The qualifications are depicted as criteria in hierarchical structure. A hierarchical decision model called PCbHDM was used in this study based on an analysis of its desirable traits. Illustration and comparison shows that the PCbHDM provides a convenient and effective tool for evaluating the market competitiveness of mechanical equipment. The researchers and practitioners might use findings of this paper in application of PCbHDM.

Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

2014-01-01

Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

2014-04-15

Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

Modelling of demand response and market power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

2004-01-01

Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

MODEL ОF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR TRANSFORMATION AS A BASIS FOR MARKETING STRATEGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.Savelyev

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The article concerns with the basic consumer segments. The consumer needs are analyzed in the article and the model of change in consumer behavior is created. The article proposes the recommendations on effective strategic actions in order to competitive capacity increase. It is determined that in low purchasing power conditions, focus on meeting the needs of loyal customer segments will allow companies to increase the competitiveness of the market supply. Adaptation of marketing strategy in low purchasing power conditions is a creative process in which success is based on the orientation of the changed consumption motives.

Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Wierenga (Berend)

2008-01-01

textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of

Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V.; Barth, R.; Brand, H.; Weber, C.; Voll, O.

2006-01-01

The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Barth, R.; Brand, H. [IER, Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany); Weber, C.; Voll, O. [Univ. of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

2006-01-15

The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

Energy-only and capacity markets and the economics of the power sector in a simulation of the Northwest European power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hers, Sebastiaan; Redl, Christian; Wijk, Pieter van der; Slot, Thijs

2013-01-01

Rising concern with regard to generation adequacy and the ability of energy-only electricity markets to deliver required investments induced debates, regulatory interventions, and consideration of new market mechanisms in several EU member states. Results based on model simulations concerning guaranteed supply safety are presented. (orig.)

Energy-only and capacity markets and the economics of the power sector in a simulation of the Northwest European power market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hers, Sebastiaan; Redl, Christian; Wijk, Pieter van der; Slot, Thijs [DNV KEMA Energy and Sustainability, Arnhem (Netherlands)

2013-11-01

Rising concern with regard to generation adequacy and the ability of energy-only electricity markets to deliver required investments induced debates, regulatory interventions, and consideration of new market mechanisms in several EU member states. Results based on model simulations concerning guaranteed supply safety are presented. (orig.)

Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market; Analyse et modelisation des prix des produits petroliers combustibles en europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simon, V

1999-04-01

The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

Marketing Modeling for New Products

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis thesis addresses the analysis of new or very recent marketing data and the introduction of new marketing models. We present a collection of models that are useful to analyze (1) the optimal launch time of new and dominant technologies, (2) the triggers, speed and timing of new

A typology of health marketing research methods--combining public relations methods with organizational concern.

Science.gov (United States)

Rotarius, Timothy; Wan, Thomas T H; Liberman, Aaron

2007-01-01

Research plays a critical role throughout virtually every conduit of the health services industry. The key terms of research, public relations, and organizational interests are discussed. Combining public relations as a strategic methodology with the organizational concern as a factor, a typology of four different research methods emerges. These four health marketing research methods are: investigative, strategic, informative, and verification. The implications of these distinct and contrasting research methods are examined.

Rethinking exchange market models as optimization algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Luquini, Evandro; Omar, Nizam

2018-02-01

The exchange market model has mainly been used to study the inequality problem. Although the human society inequality problem is very important, the exchange market models dynamics until stationary state and its capability of ranking individuals is interesting in itself. This study considers the hypothesis that the exchange market model could be understood as an optimization procedure. We present herein the implications for algorithmic optimization and also the possibility of a new family of exchange market models

Internal and external market orientation as organizational resources - consequences for market and financial performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris Snoj

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The concept of internal marketing has been discussed in marketing literature for over 30 years. Despite this fact there is little theoretical and empirical evidence of the way in which the internal market orientation impacts market and financial performance. On the other hand, there is considerable empirical evidence concerning the impact of the external market orientation on market and financial performance. Consequently, very few research projects have dealt with the impact of both market orientations on the performance of companies. In this paper a structural model was constructed, consisting of the internal market orientation, external market orientation, market performance and financial performance. With the help of the structural equation model the hypothesis that the internal market orientation is a significant predecessor of the external market orientation was confirmed. The external market orientation was found to significantly influence market as well as financial performance.

Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Energy Economics

2015-05-15

The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo

2015-01-01

The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

MARKETING MIX AND MARKETING ENVIRONMENT OF A SPORT ORGANIZATION

OpenAIRE

Nebojša Maksimović; Radenko Matić; Svetlana Mihić

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the basic elements of marketing (so called model 5P): product, price, distribution, promotion and staff as the main parts of marketing mix. It defines what can be an object of sale in terms of sport activity. Then, how the price is formed, what are the ways to sell the product, activity concerning product promotion as well as activity and service of the staff who are customer oriented.

Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars

2011-01-01

This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits...... of this model is the explicit ability to describe what the architecture is prepared for, and what it is not prepared for - concerning development of future derivative products. The model has been applied in a large scale global product development project. Among the most important benefits is contribution to...

Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trueby, Johannes

2013-01-01

The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trueby, Johannes

2013-01-17

The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

A model for marketing planning for new products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martensen, Anne

1993-01-01

awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development...... and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan....

Modeling the marketing strategy-performance relationship : towards an hierarchical marketing performance framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Zengerink, Evelien

2001-01-01

Accurate measurement of marketing performance is an important topic for both marketing academics and marketing managers. Many researchers have recognized that marketing performance measurement should go beyond financial measurement. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework that models

MARKETING MIX AND MARKETING ENVIRONMENT OF A SPORT ORGANIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nebojša Maksimović

2008-08-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the basic elements of marketing (so called model 5P: product, price, distribution, promotion and staff as the main parts of marketing mix. It defines what can be an object of sale in terms of sport activity. Then, how the price is formed, what are the ways to sell the product, activity concerning product promotion as well as activity and service of the staff who are customer oriented.

MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bistra Vassileva

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

Hybrid system prediction for the stock market: The case of transitional markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ralević Nebojša

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the creation and testing of an enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes, including the comparison with the traditional neural network backpropagation model. The objective of the research is to gather information concerning the possibilities of using the enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes focusing on transitional markets. The methodology used involves the integration of fuzzified weights into the neural network. The research results will be beneficial both for the broader investment community and the academia, in terms of the application of the enhanced model in the investment decision-making, as well as in improving the knowledge in this subject matter.

From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

2007-01-01

Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

2006-01-01

textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

Science.gov (United States)

Kristoufek, Ladislav; Vosvrda, Miloslav

2018-01-01

We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized facts such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model utility from the other side and look for the combination of parameters which yields return dynamics of the efficient market in the view of the efficient market hypothesis. Working with the Ising model, we are able to present nicely interpretable results as the model is based on only two parameters. Apart from showing the results of our simulation study, we offer a new interpretation of the Ising model parameters via inverse temperature and entropy. We show that in fact market frictions (to a certain level) and herding behavior of the market participants do not go against market efficiency but what is more, they are needed for the markets to be efficient.

An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai-Chuan Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

2016-11-01

Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noufel, Frikha

2010-12-01

This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

On the Use of Structural Equation Models in Marketing Modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenkamp, J.E.B.M.; Baumgartner, H.

2000-01-01

We reflect on the role of structural equation modeling (SEM) in marketing modeling and managerial decision making. We discuss some benefits provided by SEM and alert marketing modelers to several recent developments in SEM in three areas: measurement analysis, analysis of cross-sectional data, and

Evaluation of Franchising Business Model to Solar Energy Market in Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Nguyen, Thanh

2009-01-01

The shortage of energy, the running out of natural resources, the concern for environment pollution and the advantage of potential solar resource has become an opportunity for foreign investors who have intention to enter Vietnam‟s solar energy market. There are so many entry modes for the investors to choose rom but the application of franchising business model to solar energy industry is still a new concept not only in Vietnam but also all over the world. Therefore, this study works on the...

Model of Market Share Affected by Social Media Reputation

Science.gov (United States)

Ishii, Akira; Kawahata, Yasuko; Goto, Ujo

Proposal of market theory to put the effect of social media into account is presented in this paper. The standard market share model in economics is employed as a market theory and the effect of social media is considered quantitatively using the mathematical model for hit phenomena. Using this model, we can estimate the effect of social media in market share as a simple market model simulation using our proposed method.

Emergent organization in a model market

Science.gov (United States)

Yadav, Avinash Chand; Manchanda, Kaustubh; Ramaswamy, Ramakrishna

2017-09-01

We study the collective behaviour of interacting agents in a simple model of market economics that was originally introduced by Nørrelykke and Bak. A general theoretical framework for interacting traders on an arbitrary network is presented, with the interaction consisting of buying (namely consumption) and selling (namely production) of commodities. Extremal dynamics is introduced by having the agent with least profit in the market readjust prices, causing the market to self-organize. In addition to examining this model market on regular lattices in two-dimensions, we also study the cases of random complex networks both with and without community structures. Fluctuations in an activity signal exhibit properties that are characteristic of avalanches observed in models of self-organized criticality, and these can be described by power-law distributions when the system is in the critical state.

Essays on market design and strategic behaviour in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenczik, Stefan

2017-01-01

The thesis at hand consists of four essays which are divided into two parts. In the first part, consisting of the first two essays, market design issues in electricity markets are discussed. More precisely, it deals with concerns regarding security of supply: First, the concerns regarding the availability of sufficient flexibility to cope with intermittent renewable energy electricity generation. And second, the consequences of insufficient investments signals in energy only markets in interconnected electricity markets. Part two deals with strategic behaviour in spatial natural resource markets. Strategic behaviour and the exertion of market power have always been a matter of concern in energy markets, especially in natural resource markets. The exertion of market power can result in deadweight losses - regulatory bodies try to address this by market regulations aiming for a welfare maximising market outcome. The first problem is to detect collusive behaviour as available data is frequently limited. The second question is how regulatory decisions may influence the market outcome. Both topics are investigated by using the example of the international metallurgical coal market.

Essays on market design and strategic behaviour in energy markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lorenczik, Stefan

2017-11-13

The thesis at hand consists of four essays which are divided into two parts. In the first part, consisting of the first two essays, market design issues in electricity markets are discussed. More precisely, it deals with concerns regarding security of supply: First, the concerns regarding the availability of sufficient flexibility to cope with intermittent renewable energy electricity generation. And second, the consequences of insufficient investments signals in energy only markets in interconnected electricity markets. Part two deals with strategic behaviour in spatial natural resource markets. Strategic behaviour and the exertion of market power have always been a matter of concern in energy markets, especially in natural resource markets. The exertion of market power can result in deadweight losses - regulatory bodies try to address this by market regulations aiming for a welfare maximising market outcome. The first problem is to detect collusive behaviour as available data is frequently limited. The second question is how regulatory decisions may influence the market outcome. Both topics are investigated by using the example of the international metallurgical coal market.

A model of the world uranium market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trieu, L.H.; Savage, E.; Dwyer, G.

1994-01-01

In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed and an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on the spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingly being reflected in contract agreements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this relationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be expected after 1993 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply entering from non-traditional market sources. (Author)

Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, Derek W.; Oliveira, Fernando S.

2005-01-01

In this paper, we seek to develop some model-based insights into this two-stage dynamic process linking market interventions with individual company performance through strategic asset trading and structural change. Essentially, this is achieved with an evolutionary, agent-based, computational model that is capable of simulating how a Cournot player, by interacting with his opponents, can rationally adapt his generation portfolio in order to increase value. The functional capabilities of the proposed computational approach facilitate: 1) The study of asset portfolio adaptation as a result of rational choice. This cannot be achieved with a static Cournot model that, by construction, does not take into account endogenously the rational choice of the installed capacities and technologies used by the players. Further, this evolutionary computational model internalizes the ''path dependencies'' as one of the determinants of portfolio adaptation. 2) The analysis of market structure as an endogenous co-evolutionary process, enabling an adaptive view of the impact of short-term regulatory policies on the evolution of the industry's market structure. 3) The analysis of the behavioural implications f the rational adaptation of players to regulatory interventions. This analysis is carried-out by modelling how players trade their assets in order to improve the value of their portfolio. Our model therefore incorporates two main components: a plant trading game and an electricity market game. The plant trading game simulates the interaction between electricity companies that trade generation plants. The electricity market game simulates the performance of portfolios of plant in an electricity market assuming Cournot players. From this two-stage modelling platform, we analyze two sorts of anti-trust interventions: (a) the ''structural changes'' of enforced divestiture and (b) the ''behavioural remedies'' (sic Competition commission) of capacity availability requirements. We have

A model for marketing planning of new products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martensen, Anne

1994-01-01

Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... incorporates a special model to explain consumer awareness of the new product. 3. Consumer awareness is explained by distribution (shelf facings and in-store promotion), advertising and giving away free samples. 4. The trial model incorporates the total market potential, the probability of being in a buying...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

CERN Document Server

Zheng, Xiaolian

2013-01-01

Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xu

In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damir Dobrinić

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and investigates the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. This research focuses mainly on understanding the potential and effectiveness of the use of mobile phones as a promotional medium, but we also try to recognize the level of concern of marketing experts associated with spam, relating to privacy intrusion and ethics components in m-advertising. Privacy and ethics concerns could create resistance to the adoption of m-advertising. Media selection becomes the most critical factor for the success of a promotional and advertising marketing campaign. Croatian experts still consider TV or newspapers the best way to reach a large number of potential consumers, but what are their expectations towards mobile advertising? To answer this question, we built a model that links attitudes towards advertising via classical media to the intention to use m-advertising.

The electricity market in Croatia and eligible customers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucic, D.; Baric, A.; Tomasic-Skevin, S.

2003-01-01

The paper first presents the model and main characteristics of the Croatian electricity market concerning eligible customers. The first phase of the market opening and the estimated inclusion of eligible customers as well as independent suppliers are also described. Presumed steps of opening of the electricity market are given.(author)

COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

2012-03-15

A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Turksen, I. B.; Willson, Ian A.

1992-01-01

Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share

K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review. ... Modelling has become a visible tool in many disciplines including marketing and several marketing models have ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

The German power market. Data collection for model analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munksgaard, J.; Alsted Pedersen, K.; Ramskov, J.

2000-09-01

In the present project the market scenario for analysing market imperfections has been the Northern European power market, i.e. a market including Germany as well. Consequently, one of the tasks in the project has been to collect data for Germany in order to develop the empirical basis of the ELEPHANT model. In that perspective the aim of this report is to document the data collected for Gemany, to specify the data sources used and further to lay stress on the assumptions which have been made when data have not been available. By doing so, transparency in model results is improved. Further, a basis for discussing the quality of data as well as a framework for future revisions and updating of data have been established. The data collected for Germany have been given by the exogenous variables defined by the ELEPHANT model. In that way data collection is a priori given by the specification of the model. The model includes more than 30 exogenous variables specified at a very detailed level. These variables include among others data on energy demand, detailed power production data and data on energy taxes and CO{sub 2} emission targets. This points to the fact that many kinds of data sources have been used. However, due to lack of data sources not all relevant data have been collected. One area in which lack of data has been significant is demand reactions to changes in energy prices, i.e. the different kinds of demand elasticities used in the production and consumer utility functions in the model. Concerning elasticities for German demand reactions no data sources have been available at all. Another area of data problems is combined heat and power production (so-called CHP production), in which only very aggregated data have been available. Lack of data or poor quality of data (e.g., data not up to date or data not detailed enough) has led to the use of appropriate assumptions and short cuts in order to establish the entire data basis for the model. We describe the

The German power market. Data collection for model analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munksgaard, J.; Alsted Pedersen, K.; Ramskov, J.

2000-09-01

In the present project the market scenario for analysing market imperfections has been the Northern European power market, i.e. a market including Germany as well. Consequently, one of the tasks in the project has been to collect data for Germany in order to develop the empirical basis of the ELEPHANT model. In that perspective the aim of this report is to document the data collected for Gemany, to specify the data sources used and further to lay stress on the assumptions which have been made when data have not been available. By doing so, transparency in model results is improved. Further, a basis for discussing the quality of data as well as a framework for future revisions and updating of data have been established. The data collected for Germany have been given by the exogenous variables defined by the ELEPHANT model. In that way data collection is a priori given by the specification of the model. The model includes more than 30 exogenous variables specified at a very detailed level. These variables include among others data on energy demand, detailed power production data and data on energy taxes and CO 2 emission targets. This points to the fact that many kinds of data sources have been used. However, due to lack of data sources not all relevant data have been collected. One area in which lack of data has been significant is demand reactions to changes in energy prices, i.e. the different kinds of demand elasticities used in the production and consumer utility functions in the model. Concerning elasticities for German demand reactions no data sources have been available at all. Another area of data problems is combined heat and power production (so-called CHP production), in which only very aggregated data have been available. Lack of data or poor quality of data (e.g., data not up to date or data not detailed enough) has led to the use of appropriate assumptions and short cuts in order to establish the entire data basis for the model. We describe the

Outflow dynamics in modeling oligopoly markets: the case of the mobile telecommunications market in Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał; Włoszczowska, Maja

2008-11-01

In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumer choice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level p \\in (0.3,0.4) . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment.

Current experience concerning Romanian green certificates market functioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vladescu, Gherghina; Lupului, Luminita; Vasilevschi, Constantin; Ghinea, Smaranda

2006-01-01

The renewable energy sources are promoted by their beneficial use, namely: - diversification of energy sources for producing electric power; - reduction of pollution produced by fossil fuel burning; - reduction of gas releases producing the greenhouse effects, etc. Currently, most of the renewable energy sources cannot concur on electric power free market because of the high costs of implied investments. To ensure an efficient use of renewable energy sources in electricity production and to maintain the installations implied on the electric power market, it is necessary to implement a system able to produce an output greater than that obtained from electric energy selling. The Romanian Government chose to promote the electric energy production by renewable energy sources by using the green certificate trading system. This system ensures the progress in developing the technologies employed in electric energy production from renewable energy sources and, at the same time the costs implied by their promotion can be adjusted by market mechanisms what will reduce the effects upon the electric energy consumers. The paper presents the legislation frame existing in Romania for promoting the electric energy produced from renewable energy sources, the green certificate trading system applied in Romania, as well as, the role shared by the entities implied in operation and development of the system. In November 2005, a first transaction with green certificates on controlled green certificate market in Romania took place. Analyzed is the evolution of the green certificate market registered so far from its inception, as well as, the lessons learned so far from the experience acquired

Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

CERN Document Server

Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

2016-01-01

This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

Science.gov (United States)

Choustova, Olga Al.

2007-01-01

We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

Deployment Models: Towards Eliminating Security Concerns From Cloud Computing

OpenAIRE

Zhao, Gansen; Chunming, Rong; Jaatun, Martin Gilje; Sandnes, Frode Eika

2010-01-01

Cloud computing has become a popular choice as an alternative to investing new IT systems. When making decisions on adopting cloud computing related solutions, security has always been a major concern. This article summarizes security concerns in cloud computing and proposes five service deployment models to ease these concerns. The proposed models provide different security related features to address different requirements and scenarios and can serve as reference models for deployment. D...

Green Certificates and Market Power on the Nordic Power Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, Lars; Amundsen, Eirik S

2007-06-01

In Sweden a market for Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) was introduced in 2003. The purpose was to stimulate investments in electricity generation based on renewable energy sources without using direct governmental subsidies to renewable energy. More precisely the aim is to create a market where different types of renewable electricity can compete on equal terms, thus relieving governments and public agencies from being directly involved in power industry investment decisions. The purpose of this study is to elucidate under which circumstances, how, and to what extent market power in the TGC market can be used to affect the entire electricity market. There are basically two reasons for being concerned with market power in TGC markets. The first is the fact that the industry average cost curve for 'green' electricity tends to be upward sloping. This is because the cost of wind power, the main source of green electricity, depends on the location of the power plants, and that the availability of first rate sites that do not involve sizable investments in new transmission and network infrastructure, is limited. The situation is similar for environmentally friendly hydro power, and, to some extent, for other types of 'green' electricity. Thus, given the state of technology and an upper cost limit, there is a maximum amount of 'green' electricity that can be produced within a country. This means that some generators, by getting access to the suitable sites, will become dominating producers of 'green' electricity and thus may be able to exercise market power in the TGC market. The second reason for being concerned with market power in a TGC market is that, as a result of the percentage requirement, the withdrawal of a given number of TGCs from the market forces a much larger reduction of electricity consumption. Thus relatively modest exercise of market power in the TGC market may have a significant impact on the price of electricity and the allocation of resources in

Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

CERN Document Server

Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim; Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

2015-01-01

This book presents the works and research findings of physicists, economists, mathematicians, statisticians, and financial engineers who have undertaken data-driven modelling of market dynamics and other empirical studies in the field of Econophysics. During recent decades, the financial market landscape has changed dramatically with the deregulation of markets and the growing complexity of products. The ever-increasing speed and decreasing costs of computational power and networks have led to the emergence of huge databases. The availability of these data should permit the development of models that are better founded empirically, and econophysicists have accordingly been advocating that one should rely primarily on the empirical observations in order to construct models and validate them. The recent turmoil in financial markets and the 2008 crash appear to offer a strong rationale for new models and approaches. The Econophysics community accordingly has an important future role to play in market modelling....

Modelling gas markets - a survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Modelling gas markets - a survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-31

This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lise, Wietze; Linderhof, Vincent; Kuik, Onno; Kemfert, Claudia; Ostling, Robert; Heinzow, Thomas

2006-01-01

This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight Northwestern European countries, namely Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Different market structures are compared, depending on the ability of firms to exercise market power, ranging from perfect competition without market power to strategic competition where large firms exercise market power. In addition, a market power reduction policy is studied where the near-monopolies in France and Belgium are demerged into smaller firms. To analyse environmental impacts, a fixed greenhouse gas emission reduction target is introduced under different market structures. The results indicate that the effects of liberalisation depend on the resulting market structure, but that a reduction in market power of large producers may be beneficial for both the consumer (i.e. lower prices) and the environment (i.e. lower greenhouse gas permit price and lower acidifying and smog emissions)

Economic model of the US uranium market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, A.D.

1984-01-01

An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

Marketing research model of competitive environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krasilya Dmitriy

2015-11-01

Full Text Available To support its competitive advantages in current market conditions, each company needs to choose better ways of guaranteeing its favorable competitive position. In this regard, considerable interest lies in the structuring and algorithmization of marketing research processes that provide the information background of such choice. The article is devoted to modeling the process of marketing research of competitive environment.

Development of a virtual power market model to investigate strategic and collusive behavior of market players

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafie-khah, Miadreza; Parsa Moghaddam, Mohsen; Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohamad Kazem

2013-01-01

In this paper, a virtual power market model is proposed to investigate the behavior of power market players from regulator's point of view. In this approach, strategic players are modeled in a multi-agent environment. These agents which are virtual representative of actual players forecast the prices and participate in the markets, exactly the same as real world situation. In addition, the role of ISO is encountered by using security constraint unit commitment (SCUC) and security constraint economic dispatch (SCED) solutions. Moreover, the interaction between market players is modeled using a heuristic dynamic game theory algorithm based on the supply function equilibria (SFE). In addition to the collusive behavior, using the proposed model, the short-term strategic behavior of players, which their effects will appear in long-term, can be simulated. The proposed model enables the market regulators to make decision before implementing new market rules with the confidence of their results. To represent the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study including wind power plants is considered and the impact of various market rules on players’ behavior is simulated and discussed. Numerical studies indicate that simulating the strategic and collusive behavior prior to any change in the market rules is necessary. - Highlights: • A virtual power market model is proposed using a heuristic dynamic game theory. • The proposed model can simulate the behavior of market players in a certain period. • This model can evaluate the oligopoly, collusive and strategic behavior of players. • The price uncertainty and security constraint are considered. • Neglecting strategic behavior of players can cause adverse consequences

Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

2018-02-01

Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

Noncooperative models of permit markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd

2011-07-15

The applicability of some popular and basic permit market theories has been questioned. Drawing on noncooperative equilibrium theory for pure exchange economies, this article adapts several well-established alternative models to permit exchange. Some qualitative properties of the associated equilibria are provided, including two games with equilibria that in a sense coincide. Nevertheless, as there exist quite a few models potentially applicable to emissions trading, with equilibria that range from autarky to Pareto optimality, it seems that economics lacks a broadly accepted basic theory for permit markets. (Author)

MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

OpenAIRE

Bistra Vassileva; Miroslav Nikolov

2016-01-01

The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed concep...

Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Hui

This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have

Ising model of financial markets with many assets

Science.gov (United States)

Eckrot, A.; Jurczyk, J.; Morgenstern, I.

2016-11-01

Many models of financial markets exist, but most of them simulate single asset markets. We study a multi asset Ising model of a financial market. Each agent has two possible actions (buy/sell) for every asset. The agents dynamically adjust their coupling coefficients according to past market returns and external news. This leads to fat tails and volatility clustering independent of the number of assets. We find that a separation of news into different channels leads to sector structures in the cross correlations, similar to those found in real markets.

Mathematical models in marketing a collection of abstracts

CERN Document Server

Funke, Ursula H

1976-01-01

Mathematical models can be classified in a number of ways, e.g., static and dynamic; deterministic and stochastic; linear and nonlinear; individual and aggregate; descriptive, predictive, and normative; according to the mathematical technique applied or according to the problem area in which they are used. In marketing, the level of sophistication of the mathe­ matical models varies considerably, so that a nurnber of models will be meaningful to a marketing specialist without an extensive mathematical background. To make it easier for the nontechnical user we have chosen to classify the models included in this collection according to the major marketing problem areas in which they are applied. Since the emphasis lies on mathematical models, we shall not as a rule present statistical models, flow chart models, computer models, or the empirical testing aspects of these theories. We have also excluded competitive bidding, inventory and transportation models since these areas do not form the core of ·the market...

Coordination under the Shadow of Career Concerns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koch, Alexander; Morgenstern, Albrecht

2010-01-01

concerns arise. The effects of career concerns can both be 'good' (enhancing incentives for effort in developing ideas) and 'bad' (preventing voluntary coordination). Our model shows how a firm can take these conflicting forces into account through the design of its explicit incentive system and the way......A firm's innovation process requires employees to develop novel ideas and to coordinate with each other to turn the tacit knowledge embodying these ideas into better products and services. Such work outcomes provide signals about employees' abilities to the labor market, and therefore career...

Solar energy market penetration models - Science or number mysticism

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, E. H., Jr.

1980-01-01

The forecast market potential of a solar technology is an important factor determining its R&D funding. Since solar energy market penetration models are the method used to forecast market potential, they have a pivotal role in a solar technology's development. This paper critiques the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models. It is argued that the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.

Advertising in the Sznajd Marketing Model

Science.gov (United States)

Schulze, Christian

The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, is applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice, the smaller the amount of advertising is needed to convince the whole market.

Capacity mechanisms and effects on market structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elberg, Christina; Kranz, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Liberalized electricity markets are characterized by fluctuating priceinelastic demand of non-storable electricity, often defined by a substantial market share held by one or few incumbent firms. These characteristics have led to a controversial discussion concerning the need for and the design of capacity mechanisms, which combine some form of capacity payments with price caps in the spot market. The purpose of this study is to understand the effects of capacity mechanisms on the market structure. We consider a model with dominant firms and a competitive fringe and investigate the impact of price caps and capacity payments on investment incentives and market concentration. While lower price caps reduce the potential for the exercise of market power in static models, we find that in the dynamic model with endogenous investments, lower price caps result in an increase in market concentration, the frequency of capacity withholding and the profits of the dominant firms.

CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Burtnyak

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

Advertising effects in Sznajd marketing model

OpenAIRE

Christian Schulze

2002-01-01

The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, are applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice is the smaller is the amount of advertising needed to convince the whole market

Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanhui Xi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation. With the new representations, a theoretical explanation of leverage effect is provided. Simulated data and daily stock market indices (Shanghai composite index, Shenzhen component index, and Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite index via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method are used to estimate the leverage market microstructure model. The results verify the effectiveness of the model and its estimation approach proposed in the paper and also indicate that the stock markets have strong leverage effects. Compared with the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV model in terms of DIC (Deviance Information Criterion, the leverage market microstructure model fits the data better.

Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

2013-01-01

When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

A complementarity model for the European natural gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egging, Ruud; Gabriel, Steven A.; Holz, Franziska; Zhuang, Jifang

2008-01-01

In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call 'traders', pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, liquefiers and regasifiers is modeled via optimization problems whose Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions in combination with market-clearing conditions form the complementarity system. The LNG tankers, marketers and consumption sectors are modeled implicitly via appropriate cost functions, aggregate demand curves, and ex post calculations, respectively. The model is run on several case studies that highlight its capabilities, including a simulation of a disruption of Russian supplies via Ukraine

Marketing Education on a Shoestring: A Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shreeve, William; And Others

Few educators envision themselves as marketing or public relations experts, yet economic reality is forcing many academicians into these roles. Over the past four years, the Eastern Washington University Department of Education has developed a successful marketing model for educators. The model begins with a successful reform of department…

Retail experience in the de-regulated market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cummings, R.

2003-01-01

This paper describes the experience gained to date in the de-regulated electricity market through an examination of the commercial market. In 2001, chaos provided opportunity, while in 2002 the emphasis was on operations. In 2003, the landscape reflected hyper-competition, selling second services, and a changing landscape. A discussion followed on the residential market with a look at market structure, economics, and uncertainty concerning the future. The following components were identified as working well: wholesale market, commercial market, market model/data, and innovation in offerings and green supply. Areas requiring further improvement were also identified. It was suggested that the residential de-regulated roadmap should be clarified and retail friendly transactions should be imposed. Other improvements involve education and operations/system capabilities. The author concluded that the deregulated electricity market is still an immature market, where progress is being made in the commercial market. The residential market is in a critical period, with a market model still evolving. figs

Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); D.M. Hanssens (Dominique)

2003-01-01

textabstractThe question of long-run market response lies at the heart of any marketing strategy that tries to create a sustainable competitive advantage for the firm or brand. A key challenge, however, is that only short-run results of marketing actions are readily observable. Persistence modeling

A bargaining model of regulated markets' integration with an application to electricity supply market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei Jingyuan; Smeers, Y.; Canon, E.

1995-01-01

An integrated market organized by regulated electric utilities is modelled. It is assumed that, given a price vector for the exchange of electricity between each pair of neighboring utilities, utilities independently maximize their own domestic social welfare subject to the zero profit constraint. An equilibrium price vector for exchanges among utilities is defined as the one which clears the exchanges for all pair of business partners. A single piecewise linear model is formulated for computing market equilibria. The model is used to simulate the electricity supply market organized by 11 western European countries

The 4s web-marketing mix model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Constantinides, Efthymios

2002-01-01

This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm,

Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

2015-05-01

Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

A conceptual model of political market orientation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ormrod, Robert P.

2005-01-01

. The remaining four constructs are attitudinal, designed to capture the awareness of members to the activities and importance of stakeholder groups in society, both internal and external to the organisation. The model not only allows the level of a party's political market orientation to be assessed, but also......This article proposes eight constructs of a conceptual model of political market orientation, taking inspiration from the business and political marketing literature. Four of the constructs are 'behavioural' in that they aim to describe the process of how information flows through the organisation...

An Aristotelian Model for Ethical Higher Education Marketing: The Role of Practical Wisdom

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, Paul

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the concerns for a distinct ethics for marketers of higher education. It argues that higher education retains a difference for both product and service and that unfettered marketing can influence and then manipulate the underlying edifying offering.

A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

Science.gov (United States)

Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

2016-01-01

Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher M Wray

Full Text Available Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space, and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space, numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock

A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the

Cultural context in marketing communication on international market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dominika Hirsch

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The goal of this article is to show in what way cultural factors can determine decisions in international marketing. Particular attention is devoted to the decisions associated with marketing communication, that is, the way in which cultural factors influence our preferences concerning the style of communication and what two basic styles are distinguished within intercultural communication. On the basis of particular examples it will be shown on the one hand in what ways these styles are visible in various forms of marketing messages coming from various countries. On the other hand it will also be shown in what way these messages reflect (very often unwittingly the culture and the system of values of an organization of the place were the messages originated. Before we start discussing the above-mentioned issues, the basic assumptions of the cultural marketing, as well as the term of culture, its models and dimensions will be presented.

Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

2003-01-01

Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-02-01

The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Fred Espen Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics......, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained...

An adaptive stochastic model for financial markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernández, Juan Antonio; Benito, Rosa Marı´a; Losada, Juan Carlos

2012-01-01

An adaptive stochastic model is introduced to simulate the behavior of real asset markets. The model adapts itself by changing its parameters automatically on the basis of the recent historical data. The basic idea underlying the model is that a random variable uniformly distributed within an interval with variable extremes can replicate the histograms of asset returns. These extremes are calculated according to the arrival of new market information. This adaptive model is applied to the daily returns of three well-known indices: Ibex35, Dow Jones and Nikkei, for three complete years. The model reproduces the histograms of the studied indices as well as their autocorrelation structures. It produces the same fat tails and the same power laws, with exactly the same exponents, as in the real indices. In addition, the model shows a great adaptation capability, anticipating the volatility evolution and showing the same volatility clusters observed in the assets. This approach provides a novel way to model asset markets with internal dynamics which changes quickly with time, making it impossible to define a fixed model to fit the empirical observations.

Marketing strategy for private housing market in Thailand

OpenAIRE

Limcharoen, P.

2005-01-01

Marketing is an important part of a business strategy. A company develops a marketing strategy to match their resources and capabilities to customer's changing needs and wants, at a profit. This paper presents the marketing strategy of housing companies in the high-end market segment of Thai private housing market. The framework includes the 4Ps marketing mix and relationship marketing. The 4Ps marketing mix concerns product, price, promotion and place element of house products and services w...

Cross-currency transmission of money market tensions

OpenAIRE

Kei Imakubo; Takeshi Kimura; Teppei Nagano

2008-01-01

Funding conditions in global money markets have tightened since August 2007. In various currency-denominated money markets, term funding rates have come under upward pressure because of heightened concerns about counterparty credit and liquidity risks. Although the magnitude of upward pressure on interbank rates has differed across markets, the direction of its movements has followed a similar pattern. In this Review, using a vector autoregression model, we analyze the cross-currency transmis...

Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2014-01-01

Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

Agent-based models of financial markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Samanidou, E [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany); Zschischang, E [HSH Nord Bank, Portfolio Mngmt. and Inv., Martensdamm 6, D-24103 Kiel (Germany); Stauffer, D [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Koeln (Germany); Lux, T [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany)

2007-03-15

This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we

Agent-based models of financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

Samanidou, E.; Zschischang, E.; Stauffer, D.; Lux, T.

2007-03-01

This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

Agent-based models of financial markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanidou, E; Zschischang, E; Stauffer, D; Lux, T

2007-01-01

This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-04-01

Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

2002-01-01

Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

2001-01-01

textabstractMarket share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of

The 4s web-marketing mix model

OpenAIRE

Constantinides, Efthymios

2002-01-01

This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm, is also a poor choice in the case of virtual marketing and identifies two main limitations of the framework in online environments: the drastically diminished role of the Ps and the lack of any st...

A marketing model: applications for dietetic professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Parks, S C; Moody, D L

1986-01-01

Traditionally, dietitians have communicated the availability of their services to the "public at large." The expectation was that the public would respond favorably to nutrition programs simply because there was a consumer need for them. Recently, however, both societal and consumer needs have changed dramatically, making old communication strategies ineffective and obsolete. The marketing discipline has provided a new model and new decision-making tools for many health professionals to use to more effectively make their services known to multiple consumer groups. This article provides one such model as applied to the dietetic profession. The model explores a definition of the business of dietetics, how to conduct an analysis of the environment, and, finally, the use of both in the choice of new target markets. Further, the model discusses the major components of developing a marketing strategy that will help the practitioner to be competitive in the marketplace. Presented are strategies for defining and re-evaluating the mission of the profession, for using future trends to identify new markets and roles for the profession, and for developing services that make the profession more competitive by better meeting the needs of the consumer.

A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. B. Mason

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

Length of marketing channels in sales of gas boilers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jovičić Dragoljub

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Depending on the number of institutions participating in this marketing channel and depending on the number of channel members, the literature usually classifies marketing channels into direct and indirect. There is also the third modality, which occasionally occurs in commercial practice, representing a mix of marketing flows characteristic of the two basic models, called the quasi-direct marketing channel. This channel model usually occurs during the placement of production goods, or as it is also often said in the 'industrial marketing'. When the placement of gas boilers in Serbian market is concerned quasi-direct marketing channels are applied very often, especially when it comes to large quantities because of their suitability, faster and more efficient distribution, and significantly lower transport and storage costs.

Application of Binomial Model and Market Asset Declaimer Methodology for Valuation of Abandon and Expand Options. The Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paweł Mielcarz

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The article presents a case study of valuation of real options included in a investment project. The main goal of the article is to present the calculation and methodological issues of application the methodology for real option valuation. In order to do it there are used the binomial model and Market Asset Declaimer methodology. The project presented in the article concerns the introduction of radio station to a new market. It includes two valuable real options: to abandon the project and to expand.

EIA model documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-30

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of products, the production of natural gas liquids and domestic methanol, projects petroleum provides and sources of supplies for meeting demand. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption.

An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

IbrahimM. Hamed

2012-08-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

Multi-Level Marketing as a business model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Gregor

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Multi Level Marketing is a very popular business model in the Western countries. It is a kind of hybrid of the method of distribution of goods and the method of building a sales network. It is one of the safest (carries a very low risk ways of conducting a business activity. The knowledge about functioning of this business model, both among theoreticians (scanty literature on the subject and practitioners, is still insufficient in Poland. Thus, the presented paper has been prepared as — in the Authors' opinion — it, at least infinitesimally, bridges the gap in the recognition of Multi Level Marketing issues. The aim of the study was, first of all, to describe Multi Level Marketing, to indicate practical benefits of this business model as well as to present basic systems of calculating a commission, which are used in marketing plans of companies. The discussion was based on the study of literature and the knowledge gained in the course of free-form interviews with the leaders of the sector.

Modeling financial markets by self-organized criticality

Science.gov (United States)

Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

2015-10-01

We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative pressure on market participants, showing how the spreading of information, based on a realistic imitative behavior, drives contagion and causes market fragility. In this model imitation is not intended as a change in the agent's group of origin, but is referred only to the price formation process. We introduce in the community also a variable number of random traders in order to study their possible beneficial role in stabilizing the market, as found in other studies. Finally, we also suggest some counterintuitive policy strategies able to dampen fluctuations by means of a partial reduction of information.

Models for the financial-performance effects of Marketing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hanssens, D.M.; Dekimpe, Marnik; Wierenga, B.; van der Lans, R.

We consider marketing-mix models that explicitly include financial performance criteria. These financial metrics are not only comparable across the marketing mix, they also relate well to investors’ evaluation of the firm. To that extent, we treat marketing as an investment in customer value

Marketing for a Web-Based Master's Degree Program in Light of Marketing Mix Model

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Cheng-Chang

2012-01-01

The marketing mix model was applied with a focus on Web media to re-strategize a Web-based Master's program in a southern state university in U.S. The program's existing marketing strategy was examined using the four components of the model: product, price, place, and promotion, in hopes to repackage the program (product) to prospective students…

Essays on the integration of renewables in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knaut, Andreas

2017-01-01

The thesis sheds light onto the integration of renewable energy generation into electricity markets based on five articles. The first article is concerned with the optimal strategies of renewable producers selling electricity in sequential markets. A model is developed in which renewable generators trade their production in two sequential markets, which can be regarded as the day-ahead and intraday markets. Trading in the first market takes place under uncertainty about the final production level of renewable generation. The results show that it might be optimal for renewable producers to sell less than the expected quantity in the day-ahead market. The second article focuses on the high variability in production from renewable electricity and its effect on prices. A model for the allocation of hourly and quarter-hourly electricity generation is developed, assuming that the participation in the market for quarter-hourly products is restricted. Restricted participation in the market for quarter-hourly products may have caused welfare losses of about EUR 96 million in 2015. In the third article, the hourly price elasticity of demand for electricity in the German day-ahead market is empirically estimated. The results indicate a high level of variation of price elasticity of demand throughout the day ranging from -0.02 to -0.13 depending on the time of the day in the German day-ahead market in 2015. The fourth article is concerned with the tariff design in retail markets for electricity. It focuses on the inefficiency from time-invariant pricing in combination with an increasing share of renewable energies. The last article finally takes a closer look at the balancing power market and the impact of different market designs on efficiency and competition. Based on a developed model, it shows that shorter tender frequencies could lower the costs of balancing power procurement by up to 15 %. While market concentration decreases in many markets with shorter provision

Essays on the integration of renewables in electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knaut, Andreas

2017-07-06

The thesis sheds light onto the integration of renewable energy generation into electricity markets based on five articles. The first article is concerned with the optimal strategies of renewable producers selling electricity in sequential markets. A model is developed in which renewable generators trade their production in two sequential markets, which can be regarded as the day-ahead and intraday markets. Trading in the first market takes place under uncertainty about the final production level of renewable generation. The results show that it might be optimal for renewable producers to sell less than the expected quantity in the day-ahead market. The second article focuses on the high variability in production from renewable electricity and its effect on prices. A model for the allocation of hourly and quarter-hourly electricity generation is developed, assuming that the participation in the market for quarter-hourly products is restricted. Restricted participation in the market for quarter-hourly products may have caused welfare losses of about EUR 96 million in 2015. In the third article, the hourly price elasticity of demand for electricity in the German day-ahead market is empirically estimated. The results indicate a high level of variation of price elasticity of demand throughout the day ranging from -0.02 to -0.13 depending on the time of the day in the German day-ahead market in 2015. The fourth article is concerned with the tariff design in retail markets for electricity. It focuses on the inefficiency from time-invariant pricing in combination with an increasing share of renewable energies. The last article finally takes a closer look at the balancing power market and the impact of different market designs on efficiency and competition. Based on a developed model, it shows that shorter tender frequencies could lower the costs of balancing power procurement by up to 15 %. While market concentration decreases in many markets with shorter provision

An agent model for the high-end gamers market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adriaansen, T.; Armbruster, H.D.; Kempf, K.; Li, H.

2013-01-01

Understanding the driving forces in the markets of their products is a basic necessity for any business. Quantitative models are either aggregated over large market segments or restricted to utility models of an individual's buying decision. While the aggregate models acknowledge that customer

Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2013-01-01

A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference performed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to the parameter estimation of the GARCH model. It is found that volatility determined by the GARCH model exhibits ''volatility clustering'' also observed in the real financial markets. Using volatility determined by the GARCH model we examine the mixture-of-distribution hypothesis (MDH) suggested for the asset return dynamics. We find that the returns standardized by volatility are approximately standard normal random variables. Moreover we find that the absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation. These findings are consistent with the view of the MDH for the return dynamics

Real and financial interacting markets: A behavioral macro-model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

2015-01-01

Highlights: •We propose a model in which the real sector and the stock market interact. •In the stock market there are optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists. •We detect the mechanisms through which instabilities get transmitted between markets. •In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”. •We show the effects of increasing the interaction degree between the two markets. -- Abstract: In the present paper we propose a model in which the real side of the economy, described via a Keynesian good market approach, interacts with the stock market with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists, that respectively overestimate and underestimate the reference value due to a belief bias. Agents may switch between optimism and pessimism according to which behavior is more profitable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first contribution considering both real and financial interacting markets and an evolutionary selection process for which an analytical study is performed. Indeed, employing analytical and numerical tools, we detect the mechanisms and the channels through which the stability of the isolated real and financial sectors leads to instability for the two interacting markets. In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”, which allows us to study the complete three-dimensional system by decomposing it into two subsystems, i.e., the isolated financial and real markets, easier to analyze, that are then linked through a parameter describing the interaction degree between the two markets. We derive the stability conditions both for the isolated markets and for the whole system with interacting markets. Next, we show how to apply the interaction degree approach to our model. Among the various scenarios we are led to analyze, the most interesting one is that in which the isolated markets are stable, but their interaction is destabilizing

A novel model for product bundling and direct marketing in e-commerce based on market segmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arash Beheshtian-Ardakani

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, companies offer product bundles with special discounts in order to sell more products. However, it is important to note that customers show different levels of loyalties to companies, and each segment of the market has unique features, which influences the customers’ buying patterns. The primary purpose of this paper is to propose a novel model for product bundling in e-commerce websites by using market segmentation variables and customer loyalty analysis. RFM model is employed to calculate customer loyalty. Subsequently, the customers are grouped based on their loyalty levels. Each group is then divided into different segments based on market segmentation variables. The product bundles are determined for each market segment via clustering algorithms. Apriori algorithm is also used to determine the association rules for each product bundle. Classification models are applied in order to determine which product bundle should be recommended to each customer. The results demonstrate that the silhouette coefficient, support, confidence, and accuracy values are higher when both customer loyalty level and market segmentation variables are used in product bundling. Accordingly, the proposed model increases the chance of success in direct marketing and recommending product bundles to customers.

Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

2010-01-15

Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

2010-01-01

Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Part 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-18

This report contains the following: Bibliography; Petroleum Market Model abstract; Data quality; Estimation methodologies (includes refinery investment recovery thresholds, gas plant models, chemical industry demand for methanol, estimation of refinery fixed costs, estimation of distribution costs, estimation of taxes gasoline specifications, estimation of gasoline market shares, estimation of low-sulfur diesel market shares, low-sulfur diesel specifications, estimation of regional conversion coefficients, estimation of SO{sub 2} allowance equations, unfinished oil imports methodology, product pipeline capacities and tariffs, cogeneration methodology, natural gas plant fuel consumption, and Alaskan crude oil exports); Matrix generator documentation; Historical data processing; and Biofuels supply submodule.

Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhanhui Lu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

The Interval Stability of an Electricity Market Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weijuan Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Combined with the electric power market dynamic model put forward by Alvarado, an interval model of electricity markets is established and investigated in this paper pertaining to the range of demand elasticity with suppliers and consumers. The stability of an electricity market framework with demand elasticity interval is analyzed. The conclusions characterizing the interval model provided are derived by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function and using the theory of interval dynamical system in differential equations and matrix inequality theory and so forth. Applying the corollary obtained can judge the system stability by available data about demand elasticity. The obtained results are validated and illustrated by a case example.

Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models

CERN Document Server

2010-01-01

Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.

Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

2016-11-01

A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

NEO-AMERICAN MARKET ECONOMY MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiriţescu Dorel-Dumitru

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The American market economy system is the convergence point of two theoretical models: the neoclassic model (which excludes the state intervention and keynesist model (in which the state intervenes as decisional economic agent. the relaunch of American economy set off at the end of the last century in the same time with Ronald Reagan presidency and relies on a important financial and technological patrimony.

Creating New Structures for Marketing Firms: An Experimental Conjoint Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kalogeras, N.; Lans, van der I.A.C.M.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Dijk, van G.

2004-01-01

ABSTRACT As market conditions change rapidly in the 21st century, questions are arising concerning the suitable organizational structures and processes to meet the challenges that these conditions pose. This paper introduces a new model to structure marketing co-operatives (MCs), which is based on

Impulse-response analysis of the market share attraction model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

1999-01-01

textabstractWe propose a simulation-based technique to calculate impulse-response functions and their confidence intervals in a market share attraction model [MCI]. As an MCI model implies a reduced form model for the logs of relative market shares, simulation techniques have to be used to obtain

Market Power in Hydro-Thermal Supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edin, Karl-Axel

2006-12-01

Despite having had a deregulated electricity market in Sweden for over ten years we still need to increase our understanding as to how deregulated electricity markets actually work and how possible problems are to be solved. One question that is always in focus is if the competition between generators in the Nordic electricity market really works the way it was intended. Many argue that the concentration in ownership of generation plants already has gone too far. Together with joint ownership in nuclear facilities and barriers for entrance, critics say that this has resulted in higher electricity prices than necessary. In this report different methods to (ex ante) study potential possibilities for generating firms to influence the electricity price (market power) and (ex post) discover possible manipulation through analysing the spot price and other observed factors on the electricity market are analysed. The purpose of the longer underlying paper is to give a comprehensive treatment of the electricity market with storage, i.e. hydro power, with an auction market organisation and to test the models on the Nordic market in order to explore the explanatory power of auction market theory and the theory of contestable market. The main theoretical effort in the paper concerns auction theory with inventories. The paper develops an inter-temporal auction model of a thermal-hydro power market. Parallel to the derivation of the basic equations a numerical model is developed in order to illustrate the results of the model. Section 2 of the present paper summarizes the basic equations (derived in the longer paper) for an inter-temporal auction thermal-hydro market. Section 3 contains the illustrations of solutions to equations for some stylized markets. In section 4 the auction model is tested on the Nordic market

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Zuwei

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuwei Yu

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

Using Marketing Capability Maturity Model to Measure Marketing Processes at Iran Transfo Corporation

OpenAIRE

Arman Ahmadizad; Seyyed Mojtaba Akhavan Hejazi; Amirhossein Sabourtinat

2011-01-01

Abstract In this study marketing maturity model has been used in Iran Transfo Corporation. For this purpose, the five levels process maturity model has been applied. The statistical population includes managers, supervisors and experts of marketing and sales at Iran Transfo Corporation and due to its small size, the entire population has been studied as the sample of research. 11 questionnaires have been used for data collection its validity has been confirmed by content validity analysis ...

A Market Dynamics Model for New Industrial Products and Its Application

OpenAIRE

Shmuel S. Oren; Michael H. Rothkopf

1984-01-01

New product planning models attempt to predict the market consequences of product line and product design decisions. One output of such models, especially those driven by subjective or market research data, is usually theoretical market shares based upon consumer preferences under idealized conditions. This paper describes a class of models that bridge the gap between such theoretical market shares and dynamic sales forecasts. This model accounts for differences in customer awareness of diffe...

Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

2003-01-01

textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno

Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.

2003-01-01

For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)

Commuter Effects on Local Labour Markets: A German Modelling Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Russo, G.; Tedeschi, F.; Reggiani, A.; Nijkamp, P.

2014-01-01

This paper offers an exploratory investigation of the effects of inbound commuter flows on employment in regional labour markets in Germany. For this purpose, the paper distinguishes three main channels that may transmit the effects concerned: a crowding-out mechanism and two labour demand

Inclusion of Switching Behaviour into Relationship Marketing Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alnaimi, Husam; Jones, Richard; Perkins, Helen

2011-01-01

Relationship marketing authors have attempted to develop distinct models suitable for investigating relationship marketing in different contexts. However, there is no agreement as yet about the antecedents that best capture the characteristics of the relational exchange that influences relationship...... marketing. Maintaining a long-term relationship with a customer is one of the fundamental factors determining the value that the customer provides to the company. A serious threat to achieving a long-term relationship is the customer’s switching behaviour. This study develops a theoretical model...... of relationship marketing, which includes customers’ switching behaviour (switchers and stayers), as a vital construct to understand the relationship development process between customers and service providers. Also, hypotheses to specify the association between the underlying models’ constructs were presented...

Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

2009-01-01

This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.; Pereira, Ivo F.; Fernandes, Ricardo; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Definition of an ontology allowing the communication between multi-agents systems. • Social welfare evaluation in different electricity markets. • Demonstration of the use of the proposed ontology between two multi-agents systems. • Strategic biding in electricity markets. • European electricity markets comparison. - Abstract: The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution

The integrated North American electricity market : investment in electricity infrastructure and supply : a North American concern

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egan, T.

2006-03-01

Electricity supply and infrastructure solutions for the United States and Canada were discussed along with the availability of fuel supply and the diversity of fuel sources. This document focuses on investment in transmission infrastructure in order to assure sustainable generation sources for both countries while addressing constraints along the border, which will allow for enhanced cross-border trade. The Canadian Electricity Association has proposed 3 areas of bi-national cooperation to promote effective investment in electricity infrastructure and supply in the North American market: (1) cooperation in enhancing electricity supply, (2) cooperation in enhancing transmission infrastructure, and (3) cooperation in addressing air quality issues and climate change. The report discussed electricity generation by fuel source in Canada and the United States; status of restructuring in Canada; as well as the economic and environmental benefits of an integrated market. It also discussed regulatory and policy matters affecting the investment environment. Last, it discussed the need for opportunities for investment in the North American market, distribution and demand side measures, and cooperation in enhancing transmission infrastructure. It was concluded that growing electricity demand in both the United States and Canada requires investment in electricity infrastructure and supply in the future. Resolving electricity infrastructure and supply needs must be an international concern, requiring the full engagement and cooperation of both countries. 1 tab, 2 figs

Microeconomics of the ideal gas like market models

Science.gov (United States)

Chakrabarti, Anindya S.; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

2009-10-01

We develop a framework based on microeconomic theory from which the ideal gas like market models can be addressed. A kinetic exchange model based on that framework is proposed and its distributional features have been studied by considering its moments. Next, we derive the moments of the CC model (Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 167) as well. Some precise solutions are obtained which conform with the solutions obtained earlier. Finally, an output market is introduced with global price determination in the model with some necessary modifications.

Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Ming-Che

Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received

Documentation of the petroleum market model (PMM). Appendix: Model developer's report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The EIA Model Documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System provides a complete description of the Petroleum Market Model's (PMM) methodology, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developer's Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation and provides an assessment of the sensitivity of PMM results to changes in input data. The MDR analysis for PMM is performed by varying several sets of input variables one-at-a-time and examining the effect on a set of selected output variables. The analysis is based on stand-alone, rather than integrated, National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) runs. This means that other NEMS modules are not responding to PMM outputs. The PMM models petroleum refining and marketing. The purpose of the PMM is to project petroleum product prices, refining activities, and movements of petroleum into the United States and among domestic regions. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption in, the refining industry. The PMM is also used to analyze a wide variety of petroleum-related issues and policies, in order to foster better understanding of the petroleum refining and marketing industry and the effects of certain policies and regulations. The PMM simulates the operation of petroleum refineries in the United States, including the supply and transportation of crude oil to refineries, the regional processing of these raw materials into petroleum products, and the distribution of petroleum products to meet regional demands. The essential outputs of this model are product prices, a petroleum supply/demand balance, demands for refinery fuel use, and capacity expansion

Marketing Communications for Continuing Education: A Planning Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Vicere, Albert A.

1982-01-01

This article presents a model for the formulation of marketing communications strategies geared both to efficiency in direct marketing efforts and effectiveness in the creation of individual program enrollments and institutional identity. (CT)

The wood pellet market in Austria: A structural market model analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristöfel, Christa; Strasser, Christoph; Schmid, Erwin; Morawetz, Ulrich B.

2016-01-01

EU bioenergy policies and oil price hikes have resulted in a significant increase of installed pellet boilers for residential heating. Hence, European demand for wood pellets has been growing faster and more steadily than supply leading to rising market prices in recent years. This article presents an econometric analysis of demand and supply of wood pellets in the residential heating sector in Austria, one of the most dynamic markets for residential pellets. Annual and monthly time series data between 2000 and 2014 are used in a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression to estimate supply and demand elasticities of wood pellets. In all model specifications, pellets demand is found to be inelastic (from −0.66 to −0.76) and pellets supply unit-elastic (from 1.03 to 1.18). Thus, consumers are highly exposed to price changes resulting from supply shocks. Policies which support investments in pellet boilers will shift the demand of wood pellets and likely leading to higher prices for consumers. - Highlights: • Characterisation of the European pellet market. • A structural market model for wood pellets in Austria. • Estimation of supply and demand price elasticities using a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression. • Pellets demand is found to be inelastic and pellets supply unit-elastic in the short run. • Policies stimulating demand will likely increase pellet and sawmill by-product prices.

Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

2001-06-01

The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

Marketing communications model for innovation networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiago João Freitas Correia

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Innovation is an increasingly relevant concept for the success of any organization, but it also represents a set of internal and external considerations, barriers and challenges to overcome. Along the concept of innovation, new paradigms emerge such as open innovation and co-creation that are simultaneously innovation modifiers and intensifiers in organizations, promoting organizational openness and stakeholder integration within the value creation process. Innovation networks composed by a multiplicity of agents in co-creative work perform as innovation mechanisms to face the increasingly complexity of products, services and markets. Technology, especially the Internet, is an enabler of all process among organizations supported by co-creative platforms for innovation. The definition of marketing communication strategies that promote motivation and involvement of all stakeholders in synergic creation and external promotion is the central aspect of this research. The implementation of the projects is performed by participative workshops with stakeholders from Madan Parque through IDEAS(REVOLUTION methodology and the operational model LinkUp parameterized for the project. The project is divided into the first part, the theoretical framework, and the second part where a model is developed for the marketing communication strategies that appeal to the Madan Parque case study. Keywords: Marketing Communication; Open Innovation, Technology; Innovation Networks; Incubator; Co-Creation.

SUSTAINABILITY OF SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A MARKET INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Chalil

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Crude Palm Oil (CPO is the biggest consumed vegetable oil in the world. The increase in CPO production raises concern on the environmental impact even outside the producing countries. As a response to this matter, the EU has made a requirement to only import certified CPO (CSPO. India and China, the two biggest importers in the world, are less restrictive to the environmental issues, and their demands are more influenced by CPO price levels. These countries are the main export markets for Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest CPO exporters in the world. This research using monthly price data from the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, EU28, India, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. Market integrations are tested with Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression. The results show that these markets are integrated, but European countries are unlikely to lead the price movement. Therefore, the concern on sustainable certification from the European countries still slowly spreads to other main importers, resulting in low absorption of CSPO. Keywords: market integration; sustainable palm oil; seemingly unrelated regression; vector Error correction model

Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia; Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom

2010-01-01

An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

Vertical integration and market power. A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea)

2010-07-15

An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration. (author)

Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bunn, Derek W., E-mail: dbunn@london.ed [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2010-07-15

An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

Comparison of two uranium-market forecasting models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bleistein, S.; Recek, J.

1983-01-01

The techniques and methodologies, similarities and differences, and the results of two uranium market computer models - the Uranium Supply Analysis System and the EUREKA model - are surveyed. These models can be of use to electric utilities in developing procurement strategies or planning new reactor requirements. The models are designed to simulate actual market performance of the domestic uranium industry under varying user-specified assumptions. These models provide output in the form of projections of variables of interest, such as investment in exploration and new production capacity, additions to reserves and resources, and adjustments in inventories. Comparison between the models is demonstrative of how output can vary even with use of the same input data. Utilities may profit by the comparison with respect to the task of selecting models on the basis of obtaining the most-useful solution for a given problem. 18 figures

Understanding electronic market usage : a revised model based on planned behaviour and innovation diffusion theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heijden, van der Hans

1999-01-01

This paper is concerned with the identification of determinants that influence the use ofbusiness-to-consumer electronic markets. Since the widespread adoption of the Internet, these electronic markets are now commonplace and it becomesincreasingly relevant to identify the factors that influence

Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Najmudin Najmudin

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Development of financial globalization in the form of stock market integration experiences a trend which is getting stronger. The analysis models in the field of finance and investments should be able to adjust to these developments. This adjustment includes the models used to detect the existence of herding behavior. All this time, the herding behavior model of individual stocks towards market consensus has been referring to CAPM theory. The basic assumption of CAPM is that financial assets at a domestic stock market are segmented from the financial assets’ movement at the global market. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an alternative view in the form of an international herding model that should be applied in the context of an integrated stock market. The model was created with reference to the international CAPM. This paper combined ICAPM method and international CSAD model to identify herding for eight stock markets, the sample period being from January 2003 to December 2016. The result found that for segmented stock markets, represented by China and the Philippines, herding happened for both overall the sample period and the market crisis period. In addition, for the integrated stock markets, represented by Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the UK, herding behavior was only found during the market crisis period. Therefore, classification of market integrations should be considered in assessing the herding behaviour at stock markets.

Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fleten, S.-E.; Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard

2003-01-01

We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available...... to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted...

Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2015-01-01

In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for viral marketing

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Siti Suhaila; Akil, Ku Azlina Ku; Chulan, Majdah; Sharif, Noorzila

2017-11-01

Viral marketing is a marketing strategy utilizes social media to spread information about a product or services provided. It is the most powerful way to share information in a short amount of time. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic of viral marketing within a time duration in the point of view of mathematics. This study used the epidemiological model known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). The model consists of a system of three differential equations with three state variables namely susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). It considers a case of SIR model with demography. Numerical experiments have been performed. The results show that viral marketing reaches its peak within two days. The online messages shared will become higher if the initial number of the infected individual has been increased.

An Application on Merton Model in the Non-efficient Market

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yanan; Xiao, Qingxian

Merton Model is one of the famous credit risk models. This model presumes that the only source of uncertainty in equity prices is the firm’s net asset value .But the above market condition holds only when the market is efficient which is often been ignored in modern research. Another, the original Merton Model is based on assumptions that in the event of default absolute priority holds, renegotiation is not permitted , liquidation of the firm is costless and in the Merton Model and most of its modified version the default boundary is assumed to be constant which don’t correspond with the reality. So these can influence the level of predictive power of the model. In this paper, we have made some extensions on some of these assumptions underlying the original model. The model is virtually a modification of Merton’s model. In a non-efficient market, we use the stock data to analysis this model. The result shows that the modified model can evaluate the credit risk well in the non-efficient market.

Developing a Model of the Efficient Management of Reserve Capital of an Endowment Insurance Company in the Ukrainian Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kapustian Volodymir O.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with developing a model of the effective management of reserve capital of an endowment insurance company or so-called endowment life insurance. Such companies are powerful actors at the international market, operate with considerable capital and are effective as active investors in different areas. The main features of functioning of endowment insurance companies, as well as the factors that guarantee the sustainable development of insurance companies in both the global and Ukrainian markets, were considered. The principles of management of financial resources of insurance companies were studied. An elaborated model of management of current and reserve capital has been provided, the mechanism for establishing and operating the insurance company’s current capital, taking into account the process of income of insurance premiums and the payment of dividends on poles, has been described. An analysis of the largest endowment insurance companies in the Ukrainian market was carried out. Based on the analysis, the recommended discount rate has been calculated for the model proposed in the article.

Model of Nordic energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gjelsvik, E.; Johnsen, T.; Mysen, H.T.

1992-01-01

Simulation results are given of the consumption of electricity and oil in Denmark, Norway and Sweden based on the demand section of a Nordic energy market model which is in the process of being developed in Oslo under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The model incorporates supply, and trade between countries so that it can be analyzed how trading can contribute to goals within energy and environmental policies and to cost effective activities aimed at reducing pollution. The article deals in some detail with the subject of how taxation on carbon dioxide emission can influence pollution abatement and with energy consumption development within individual sectors in individual Northern countries. The model of energy demand is described with emphasis on the individual sectors of industry, transport, service and private households. Simulation results giving the effects of energy consumption and increased taxation on fossil fuels are given. On this background the consequences of the adaption of power plants is discussed and a sketch is given of a Nordic electric power market incorporating trading. (AB) (15 refs.)

The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2017-11-06

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.

The modeling and analysis of the word-of-mouth marketing

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Pengdeng; Yang, Xiaofan; Yang, Lu-Xing; Xiong, Qingyu; Wu, Yingbo; Tang, Yuan Yan

2018-03-01

As compared to the traditional advertising, word-of-mouth (WOM) communications have striking advantages such as significantly lower cost and much faster propagation, and this is especially the case with the popularity of online social networks. This paper focuses on the modeling and analysis of the WOM marketing. A dynamic model, known as the SIPNS model, capturing the WOM marketing processes with both positive and negative comments is established. On this basis, a measure of the overall profit of a WOM marketing campaign is proposed. The SIPNS model is shown to admit a unique equilibrium, and the equilibrium is determined. The impact of different factors on the equilibrium of the SIPNS model is illuminated through theoretical analysis. Extensive experimental results suggest that the equilibrium is much likely to be globally attracting. Finally, the influence of different factors on the expected overall profit of a WOM marketing campaign is ascertained both theoretically and experimentally. Thereby, some promotion strategies are recommended. To our knowledge, this is the first time the WOM marketing is treated in this way.

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

2016-01-01

Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

Dynamic Model of Market with Uninformed Market Maker

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šmíd, Martin; Kopa, Miloš

2017-01-01

Roč. 53, č. 5 (2017), s. 922-958 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : market maker * optimal decision * price and inventory * high frequency data * dynamic model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://www.library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/smid-0483753.pdf

SELECTED MODELS OF RAIL MARKETS IN THE CONTEXT OF LIBERALIZATION OF THE RAIL MARKET IN EUROPE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krystian Pietrzak

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In the paper author has made an attempt at presenting problems of the operation of European railway transport market against the background of changes taking place in the European Union transport market. These changes are the result of processes aimed at liberalizing the market. In addition, this article defines the conditions of reforms in the Eu-ropean rail market by highlighting various models of its functioning.

The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinemann, Ronald

2014-01-01

One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rubin, Ofir D., E-mail: rubino@agri.huji.ac.i [Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Babcock, Bruce A., E-mail: babcock@iastate.ed [Department of Economics, Iowa State University, 578F Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States)

2011-05-15

The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: {yields} The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. {yields} Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. {yields} Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. {yields} It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. {yields} Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.

2011-01-01

The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: → The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. → Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. → Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. → It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. → Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

Estimating long-term volatility parameters for market-consistent models

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Contemporary actuarial and accounting practices (APN 110 in the South African context) require the use of market-consistent models for the valuation of embedded investment derivatives. These models have to be calibrated with accurate and up-to-date market data. Arguably, the most important variable in the valuation of ...

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, P.D.

1995-01-01

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

1996-12-31

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

1995-12-31

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

An auction game model for pool-based electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gan, Deqiang; Wang, Jianquan; Bourcier, Donald V.

2005-01-01

A single-period auction game model for analyzing strategic behavior in pool-based electricity markets is introduced in the paper. We study the Nash equilibrium in a pure strategy sense of such games. First an equilibrium existence lemma is proved. Equilibrium characterization under tight capacity constraints is provided. Then it is demonstrated that an auction game does not possess a pure strategy Nash equilibrium under a wide range of market conditions. The paper provides a characterization of equilibrium under weak capacity constraints. We apply the introduced results to analyze market power indices presented in our earlier work and in related reports. Applications to actual market analysis, as well as limitations of the introduced model are provided. (author)

A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weidlich, Anke; Veit, Daniel

2008-01-01

The complexity of electricity markets calls for rich and flexible modeling techniques that help to understand market dynamics and to derive advice for the design of appropriate regulatory frameworks. Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) is a fairly young research paradigm that offers methods for realistic electricity market modeling. A growing number of researchers have developed agent-based models for simulating electricity markets. The diversity of approaches makes it difficult to overview the field of ACE electricity research; this literature survey should guide the way through and describe the state-of-the-art of this research area. In a conclusive summary, shortcomings of existing approaches and open issues that should be addressed by ACE electricity researchers are critically discussed. (author)

Theory and model use in social marketing health interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Luca, Nadina Raluca; Suggs, L Suzanne

2013-01-01

The existing literature suggests that theories and models can serve as valuable frameworks for the design and evaluation of health interventions. However, evidence on the use of theories and models in social marketing interventions is sparse. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify to what extent papers about social marketing health interventions report using theory, which theories are most commonly used, and how theory was used. A systematic search was conducted for articles that reported social marketing interventions for the prevention or management of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, HIV, STDs, and tobacco use, and behaviors related to reproductive health, physical activity, nutrition, and smoking cessation. Articles were published in English, after 1990, reported an evaluation, and met the 6 social marketing benchmarks criteria (behavior change, consumer research, segmentation and targeting, exchange, competition and marketing mix). Twenty-four articles, describing 17 interventions, met the inclusion criteria. Of these 17 interventions, 8 reported using theory and 7 stated how it was used. The transtheoretical model/stages of change was used more often than other theories. Findings highlight an ongoing lack of use or underreporting of the use of theory in social marketing campaigns and reinforce the call to action for applying and reporting theory to guide and evaluate interventions.

A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorn, Jochen

We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saerom Park

Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

Equation-based model for the stock market.

Science.gov (United States)

Xavier, Paloma O C; Atman, A P F; de Magalhães, A R Bosco

2017-09-01

We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

Equation-based model for the stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

2017-09-01

We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

Marketing data, models and decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

OpenAIRE

Yanhui Xi; Hui Peng; Yemei Qin

2016-01-01

The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation....

A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

KAUST Repository

Douglas, C C

2011-04-01

Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents who interact with each other and actively participate in an economically well-defined marketplace. Parameters of the model are optimized using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. The quantitative prediction capabilities of the proposed model are examined through data reproducibility using past data from the U.S. and Korean wireless service markets. Finally, we investigate a disruptive market event, namely the introduction of the iPhone into the U.S. in 2007 and the resulting changes in the modeling parameters. We predict and analyze the impacts of the introduction of the iPhone into the Korean wireless service market assuming a release date of 2Q09 based on earlier data. © 2011 IEEE.

Political Market Orientation and the Network Party Type

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ormrod, Robert P.

and Saglie (2003). This is motivated by the growing need to integrate the current political science and marketing literature in order to provide a deeper understanding of the behaviour of political actors and their relationships with relevant stakeholder groups. Whilst the underlying conceptualisation draws......The conceptualisation of a political market orientation (PMO) draws on current marketing thought by focussing on the relationships that exist between the party2 and relevant internal and external stakeholders (Ormrod 2005, 2011a). However, the specific way in which the PMO model is linked...... on the management-based ‘relationship marketing’ approach (Bannon 2005; Henneberg and O’Shaughnessy 2009), by striving for contextual sensitivity it is hoped that the fears noted by political scientists that political marketing is solely concerned with applying standard management models to political parties...

Power market model with energy- and power dimension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnsen, T.A.; Larsen, B.M.

1995-01-01

This report discusses a mathematical model of the Norwegian power market. The year is divided into three seasons. Each season is subdivided into a high-load period and a low-load period according to the demand. High-load occurs in daytime on workdays while low-load occurs at night and on holidays. The model is intended to be a tool for studying variations in prices, production, demand and trade throughout the year in a market of free competition. The model establishes equilibrium prices of electricity in Norway in high-load and low-load periods. Equilibrium prices with added transport tariffs and charges give customer an indication of the cost of using electricity. And the equilibrium prices indicate to the power producers the value of further energy or power capacity. Examples of calculations using the model show that extended export and import between Norway and other countries affect power prices and production in Norway. In the examples, power intensive industry and wood processing are subjected to market prices on energy. World market prices which give unilateral power export in the high-load periods cause the Norwegian power prices to rise strongly. If to the export from Norway in periods of high-load there corresponds import in periods of low-load, then the pressure on the prices in the power market is significantly reduced. A more extensive power exchange implies that foreign power producers may use the Norwegian power system to avoid large variations in their thermal power production. 23 refs., 21 figs., 1 tab

Prospective of Transformation of Current Models of the Global Pharmaceutical Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuriy Solodkovskyy

2012-02-01

Full Text Available This article thoroughly analyzes the current state of the global pharmaceutical market, defines the key factors for its development and outlines the promising areas of transformation of existing business models of top companies. The forecasted data relating to the market development until 2015 have been investigated. The global, market, technological and organizational factors of transformation of modern model of the global pharmaceutical market have been identified.

Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Lemming, Jacob

2003-01-01

We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the Nordic power exchange

Modeling of the financial market using the two-dimensional anisotropic Ising model

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, L. S.

2017-09-01

We have used the two-dimensional classical anisotropic Ising model in an external field and with an ion single anisotropy term as a mathematical model for the price dynamics of the financial market. The model presented allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the strong of the site anisotropy term Δ which reinforces the sensitivity of the agent's sentiment to external news.

Consumer Behaviour Model on the Furniture Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BEDNÁRIK, Éva

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This study introduces the furniture purchasing behaviour model. The study describes thebehaviour model and characteristics of decision making and the environmental factors affecting theindividuals besides emphasising the family character of furniture purchase. We introduce a chapterfrom the primary research verifying the model that analyses the validity of customer behaviour trendsdefined as elements of the impersonal environment on the furniture market. We touch on our lifestylebased segmentation model which is elaborated in our work in detail. The method of primary researchis quantitative, personal interview. While working out our research model we applied a method thatenables multi-level cross-section and cohort analyses. Our work has verified the need for trendresearches on the furniture market so we suggest the construction and the near-future launch of a trendresearch system consisting of several modules that reveals the specific factors on the furniture marketbesides verifying the validity of general behaviour trends.

Measurement in Marketing: Current Scenario, Recommendations and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felipe Zambaldi

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to discuss about construct measurement in Marketing by summarizing the main considerations about the subject. First, it discusses the origins of the debates about the theme since the 1970s and describes its main consolidated models (the classical Churchill’s model, the COARSE model and the formative measurement model. Then it presents current concerns about the classical approach with relevant recommendations (particularly regarding multi-item measurement, single-item measurement, rating scales and cross-cultural aspects. At the end, it presents considerations about measurement trends in Marketing with emphasis on the Item Response Theory (IRT, Bayesian estimators and Partial Least Squares (PLS. The article updates the debate on the theme and contributes to Marketing experts and researchers who demand a current view about measurement and recommendations for research development. 

Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

2016-06-01

It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule

Photovoltaic subsystem marketing and distribution model: programming manual. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-07-01

Complete documentation of the marketing and distribution (M and D) computer model is provided. The purpose is to estimate the costs of selling and transporting photovoltaic solar energy products from the manufacturer to the final customer. The model adjusts for the inflation and regional differences in marketing and distribution costs. The model consists of three major components: the marketing submodel, the distribution submodel, and the financial submodel. The computer program is explained including the input requirements, output reports, subprograms and operating environment. The program specifications discuss maintaining the validity of the data and potential improvements. An example for a photovoltaic concentrator collector demonstrates the application of the model.

THE BERTRAND MODEL OF THE SINGLE MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vadasan Ioana

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Starting with the signification of the rationality hypothesis when the agent’s contentment is directly affected by the other agents’ decisions, the theory of games defines solutions for solving different situations of conflict. The economic actors have different behaviours of the Single Market. Oligopoly strategic behaviours were analysed by the Bertrand model. The two types revealed in the work show that strategic interactions are sensitive to the companies’ features, products and markets. Regarding the situation when we have an oligopoly competition, the companies make interdependent decisions in the environment affected by risk and uncertainty of the Single Market. For this reason it is an opportunity to study the structure of oligopoly type of of the Single Market with the aid of non – cooperative games.

The Influence of Investor Number on a Microscopic Market Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hellthaler, T.

The stock market model of Levy, Persky, Solomon is simulated for much larger numbers of investors. While small markets can lead to realistically looking prices, the resulting prices of large markets oscillate smoothly in a semi-regular fashion.

Incentives for new antibiotics: the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) model.

Science.gov (United States)

Brogan, David M; Mossialos, Elias

2013-11-07

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing threat resulting from the convergence of biological, economic and political pressures. Investment in research and development of new antimicrobials has suffered secondary to these pressures, leading to an emerging crisis in antibiotic resistance. Current policies to stimulate antibiotic development have proven inadequate to overcome market failures. Therefore innovative ideas utilizing market forces are necessary to stimulate new investment efforts. Employing the benefits of both the previously described Advanced Market Commitment and a refined Call Options for Vaccines model, we describe herein a novel incentive mechanism, the Options Market for Antibiotics. This model applies the benefits of a financial call option to the investment in and purchase of new antibiotics. The goal of this new model is to provide an effective mechanism for early investment and risk sharing while maintaining a credible purchase commitment and incentives for companies to ultimately bring new antibiotics to market. We believe that the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) may help to overcome some of the traditional market failures associated with the development of new antibiotics. Additional work must be done to develop a more robust mathematical model to pave the way for practical implementation.

Methods of Modelling Marketing Activity on Software Sales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bashirov Islam H.

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The article studies a topical issue of development of methods of modelling marketing activity on software sales for achievement of efficient functioning of an enterprise. On the basis of analysis of the market type for the studied CloudLinux OS product, the article identifies the market structure type: monopolistic competition. To ensure the information basis of the marketing activity in the target market segment, the article offers the survey method. The article provides a questionnaire, which contains specific questions regarding the studied market segment of hosting services, for an online survey with the help of the Survio service. In accordance with the system approach the CloudLinux OS has properties of systems, namely, diversity. Economic differences are non-price indicators that have no numeric expression and are quality descriptions. Analysis of the market and the conducted survey allow obtaining them. Combination of price and non-price indicators provides a complete description of the product properties. To calculate an integral indicator of competitiveness the article offers to apply a model, which is based on the direct algebraic addition of weight measures of individual indicators, regulation of formalised indicators and use of the mechanism of fuzzy sets for identification of non-formalised indicators. The calculated indicator allows not only assessment of the current level of competitiveness, but also identification of influence of changes of various indicators, which allows increase of efficiency of marketing decisions. Also, having identified the target customers of hosting OS and formalised non-price parameters, it is possible to conduct the search for a set of optimal characteristics of the product. In the result an optimal strategy of the product advancement to the market is formed.

Heston Model Calibration in the Brazilian Foreign Exchange (FX Options Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joe Akira Yoshino

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Despite the relatively recent advance in the derivative industry, the European FX option market uses simple models such as Black (1976 or Garman and Kohlhagen (1983. This widespread practice hides very important quantitative effects that could be better explored by using alternative pricing models such as the one that incorporates the stochastic volatility features. Understanding and calibrating this type of pricing model represents a challenge in the current state of art in financial engineering, specially in emerging markets that are characterized by strong volatilities, periodic changing regimes and in most case suffering of liquidity, specially during the crisis. In this sense, this paper shows how to implement the Hestons Model for the Brazilian FX option market. This approach uses the volatility matrix provided by a pool of domestic market players. Although the Hestons Model presents a formal analytical solution it does not require simulation-, the closed form solutions show a mathematical complexity. Thus, the main objective of this work is to implement this model in the Brazilian FX market.

SIMULATING AN EVOLUTIONARY MULTI-AGENT BASED MODEL OF THE STOCK MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana MARICA

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on artificial stock market simulations using a multi-agent model incorporating 2,000 heterogeneous agents interacting on the artificial market. The agents interaction is due to trading activity on the market through a call auction trading mechanism. The multi-agent model uses evolutionary techniques such as genetic programming in order to generate an adaptive and evolving population of agents. Each artificial agent is endowed with wealth and a genetic programming induced trading strategy. The trading strategy evolves and adapts to the new market conditions through a process called breeding, which implies that at each simulation step, new agents with better trading strategies are generated by the model, from recombining the best performing trading strategies and replacing the agents which have the worst performing trading strategies. The simulation model was build with the help of the simulation software Altreva Adaptive Modeler which offers a suitable platform for financial market simulations of evolutionary agent based models, the S&P500 composite index being used as a benchmark for the simulation results.

Modelling (B, S-Markets, Subject to Aggressive Buying of Shares

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elina A. Pilosyan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to modeling (B, S-market with a finite number of aggressive buyers of shares, a theoretical study of such models of markets, have developed an algorithm to calculate the hedging of portfolios of various financial obligations

The World gas model. A multi-period mixed complementarity model for the global natural gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska; Gabriel, Steven A.

2010-01-01

We provide the description, mathematical formulation and illustrative results of the World Gas Model, a multi-period complementarity model for the global natural gas market with explicit consideration of market power in the upstream market. Market players include producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, LNG (liquefied natural gas) liquefiers and regasifiers as well as marketers. The model data set contains more than 80 countries and regions and covers 98% of world wide natural gas production and consumption. We also include a detailed representation of cross-border natural gas pipelines and constraints imposed by long-term contracts in the LNG market. The model is calibrated to match production and consumption projections from the PRIMES [EC. European energy and transport: trends to 2030-update 2007. Brussels: European Commission; 2008] and POLES models [EC. World energy technology outlook - 2050 (WETO-H2). Brussels: European Commission; 2006] up to 2030. The results of our numerical simulations illustrate how the supply shares of pipeline and LNG in various regions in the world develop very differently over time. LNG will continue to play a major role in the Asian market, also for new importers like China and India. Europe will expand its pipeline import capacities benefiting from its relative proximity to major gas suppliers. (author)

Impact of a transient instability of the ecstasy market on health concerns and drug use patterns in The Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Brunt, Tibor M; Niesink, Raymond J M; van den Brink, Wim

2012-03-01

A recent decline in MDMA-like substances in ecstasy tablets has been reported by a number of countries in the European Union. This study describes the instability of the ecstasy market in The Netherlands during 2008 and 2009, and investigates whether this had any impact on drug testing or patterns of drug use. The health concerns of drug users handing in drug samples at drug testing facilities was measured using intervention time-series analysis. In addition, these ecstasy users were asked about changes in their drug use. Nationally, the unstable market situation for ecstasy has increased the number of users handing in ecstasy tablets for testing because of health concern. There was no change in the number of users handing in cocaine or gamma hydroxybutyrate (GHB). Respondents reported no major changes in their drug use resulting from the shortage of MDMA-like substances. These findings provide further insight in drug policy based on both harm reduction and use reduction. In the event of reduced ecstasy quality, ecstasy users in The Netherlands have increasingly used drug testing as a potential harm reduction tool, rather than changing their patterns of drug use. This might indicate that a transient reduction of drug quality does not serve as a good drug use reduction strategy for ecstasy users. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing Marketing Strategy for Electronic Business by Using McCarthy's Four Marketing Mix Model and Porter’s Five Competitive Forces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siamak Azadi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Original Published AbstractConsidering the importance of marketing strategies in a competitive environment dominated by E-commerce and also limit the effective implementation of research results in terms of marketing mix in e-participation, can manage sales and marketing in order to implement effective marketing strategies and ultimately achieve organizational goals Sector clients and helped the market. Main focus marketing strategies, coordinate activities and allocate appropriate resources to provide marketing operational objectives of the company as a particular product market. Therefore, the main issue related to the realm of marketing strategy, include the specific purpose of determining property markets for a product family or a particular product, then, through the corporate marketing mix according to needs and demands of potential customers in its target market, competitive advantage search And creating synergy are. Considering the importance of marketing strategies in a competitive environment dominated by Electronic markets and also limit the effective implementation of research results in terms of marketing mix in e-participation, can manage sales and marketing in order to implement effective marketing strategies and ultimately achieve organizational goals Sector clients and helped the market. This study usesMcCarthy’s four marketing mix model and Porter’s five competitive forces model to identify strategies for Internetcompanies that respond to the five competitive forces and thereby achieve a competitive advantage. The study provides significant new insights into the development and implementation of e-business strategies that contribute to increased profit. Corrected AbstractE-commerce is growing worldwide and is considered one of the modes and methods of business. This initiative led to the creation of new firms has several advantages over using benefits and this is the motivation for this phenomenon. While e-commerce success

Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbes, Carsten; Friege, Christian

2015-01-01

How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [de

Impact of Germany's energy transition on the Nordic power market – A market-based multi-region energy system model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zakeri, Behnam; Virasjoki, Vilma; Syri, Sanna; Connolly, David; Mathiesen, Brian V.; Welsch, Manuel

2016-01-01

The EU energy policy aims at creating a single European electricity market through market couplings and grid expansions. To analyse the implications of such power market couplings, we propose a market-based multi-region energy system model. The model simulates a multi-region power market (by applying market optimization and network theory), with detailed representation of each region as an energy system (by simulation of both heat and power sectors). We examine the impact of further integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Germany on the Nordic power market. The results indicate that the average electricity price slightly grows in the Nordic power market after Germany's Energy Transition (Energiewende). Hence, the economic surplus of Nordic consumers diminishes while Nordic producers improve their gain under new market conditions. Considering the gird congestion income, the overall system-level benefits (social welfare) will improve in the Nordic region after Germany's Energiewende. However, this gain is not equally distributed among different Nordic countries and across different stakeholders. Furthermore, the Energiewende slightly increases carbon emissions from power and district heating (DH) sectors, and reduces the flexibility in integration of VRE in some Nordic countries like Denmark. The direct interconnection of Norway and Germany through NordLink will contribute to the flexibility in wind integration in other Nordic countries, such as Denmark and Finland. - Highlights: • By an integrated hourly analysis, we model the energy systems of several networked countries and their common electricity market. • The proposed model can inform energy policy on implications of renewable energy integration in an international power market. • Among Nordic countries, Norway gains the highest economic benefits from Germany's energy transition. • Germany's energy transition constrains the flexibility of the Nordic countries in wind integration. • Nord

The advertising-financed business model in two-sided media markets

OpenAIRE

Anderson, Simon P.; Jullien, Bruno

2016-01-01

This chapter focuses on the economic mechanisms at work in recent models of advertising finance in media markets developed around the concept of two-sided markets. The objective is to highlight new and original insights from this approach, and to clarify the conceptual aspects. The chapter first develops a canonical model of two-sided markets for advertising, where platforms deliver content to consumers and resell their "attention" to advertisers. A key distinction is drawn between free media...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN TO ATTITUDE TOWARDS GREEN PRODUCTS: EVIDENCES FROM INDIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd Danish Kirmani

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship of environmental concern of consumers with their attitude towards green products and also to identify the predictors of environmental concern. The data was generated from a researcher controlled sample of graduate and post-graduate students enrolled in educational institutions located in the national capital of India (New Delhi and surrounding areas popularly known as National Capital Region (NCR. The data generated was analysed employing Structural Equation Modelling (SEM. The study findings indicate that environmental concern has a significant and positive influence on attitude towards green products. Collectivism and eco-literacy emerged as predictors of the environmental concern of consumers. The findings of this study are expected to enhance the understanding of marketers of the role played by variables such as religiosity, collectivism, eco-literacy, and environmental concern in formation of attitude of consumers towards green products.

Learnings from liberalised energy markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The paper presents a number of overlooked problems in liberalised electricity markets, including supply security, environmental concerns and establishment of a sustainable energy development.......The paper presents a number of overlooked problems in liberalised electricity markets, including supply security, environmental concerns and establishment of a sustainable energy development....

THE MODEL OF MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNAL MARKETING OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuliya Viktorovna Naurazbaeva

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the research is the development of methods and models of management of the internal marketing of a higher education institute based on complex approach that includes strategic management methods and staff marketing and also technologies of Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP.Method or methodology of the research. Adapted models and methods of Neuro-Linguistic Programming, strategic management and marketing to management of marketing of the university which are presented as a complex of models that are reveling through the interrelation «external labor-market – higher education institute – internal labor-market».Results:1. The mechanism of management of the internal marketing of higher education institute based on the interrelation «external labor – market – higher education institute – internal labor-market» is offered that assumes solving problem of miscomparison between market conditions, university’s opportunities and demands of an employee of this educational institute.2. Methodical bases of formation of NLP-model that coordinates the requirements of labor collective as internal consumers of the educational service and needs of higher education institute in order to provide high quality services at all stages of creation and realization of an educational service are developed.3. The infological model of construction and choosing the strategy of the internal marketing of educational institute is presented.Practical implications. The received results can be used in practical management of higher education institute when forming the strategy of the internal marketing taking into account the specific features of concrete university.

Buying on margin, selling short in an agent-based market model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ting; Li, Honggang

2013-09-01

Credit trading, or leverage trading, which includes buying on margin and selling short, plays an important role in financial markets, where agents tend to increase their leverages for increased profits. This paper presents an agent-based asset market model to study the effect of the permissive leverage level on traders’ wealth and overall market indicators. In this model, heterogeneous agents can assume fundamental value-converging expectations or trend-persistence expectations, and their effective demands of assets depend both on demand willingness and wealth constraints, where leverage can relieve the wealth constraints to some extent. The asset market price is determined by a market maker, who watches the market excess demand, and is influenced by noise factors. By simulations, we examine market results for different leverage ratios. At the individual level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences agents’ wealth accumulation. At the market level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences changes in the asset price, volatility, and trading volume. Qualitatively, our model provides some meaningful results supported by empirical facts. More importantly, we find a continuous phase transition as we increase the leverage threshold, which may provide a further prospective of credit trading.

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-28

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.

EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA's legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level

Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouden, den M.

1996-01-01

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria | Akarah ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria. ... that are influenced by the sports market mix and sports consumers that are influenced by psychological factors and notes that; ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

Analysis of conditions concerning the natural gas internal market organization in four european countries: Germany, Spain, Netherlands and United Kingdom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-02-01

The aim of this economic study is the wording of a synthetic document for the public information in the framework of the 98/30/CE european directive transposition to the gas internal market. It is writing in four main chapters, one for each country concerned: the Germany, the Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Each one presents the historical context, the actors of the natural gas industry and the main provisions. (A.L.B.)

Modelling a duopoly market of the day-to-day goods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yuriy V.

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Management of competitiveness of a production enterprise is directly connected with issues of formation of competitive strategies, which requires a thorough analysis of those components of the enterprise activity, which could become the basis of formation and strengthening of stable competitive advantages. The existing models do not take into account the market infrastructure and, that is why, not quite suitable for being used in the practical activity of a firm in a competitive market. The article develops dynamic models of quantitative and pricing duopolies, which describe activity of firms, which deal with production, storing and selling day-to-day goods. The models allow taking into account interdependence of the current state of the market and current production facilities of enterprises. The proposed models give a possibility of a purposeful selection of strategic behaviour of duopolists. The conducted analysis of strategies of competitive firms revealed significant influence of market characteristics upon results of economic activity of firms.

Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard)

2003-01-01

textabstractPurchase timing of households is usually modeled at the category level. Marketing efforts are however only available at the brand level. Hence, to describe category-level interpurchase times using marketing efforts one has to construct a category-level measure of marketing efforts from

Hydraulic root water uptake models: old concerns and new insights

Science.gov (United States)

Couvreur, V.; Carminati, A.; Rothfuss, Y.; Meunier, F.; Vanderborght, J.; Javaux, M.

2014-12-01

Root water uptake (RWU) affects underground water dynamics, with consequences on plant water availability and groundwater recharge. Even though hydrological and climate models are sensitive to RWU parameters, no consensus exists on the modelling of this process. Back in the 1940ies, Van Den Honert's catenary approach was the first to investigate the use of connected hydraulic resistances to describe water flow in whole plants. However concerns such as the necessary computing when architectures get complex made this approach premature. Now that computing power increased dramatically, hydraulic RWU models are gaining popularity, notably because they naturally produce observed processes like compensatory RWU and hydraulic redistribution. Yet major concerns remain. Some are more fundamental: according to hydraulic principles, plant water potential should equilibrate with soil water potential when the plant does not transpire, which is not a general observation when using current definitions of bulk or average soil water potential. Other concerns regard the validation process: water uptake distribution is not directly measurable, which makes it hard to demonstrate whether or not hydraulic models are more accurate than other models. Eventually parameterization concerns exist: root hydraulic properties are not easily measurable, and would even fluctuate on an hourly basis due to processes like aquaporin gating. While offering opportunities to validate hydraulic RWU models, newly developed observation techniques also make us realize the increasing complexity of processes involved in soil-plant hydrodynamics, such as the change of rhizosphere hydraulic properties with soil drying. Surprisingly, once implemented into hydraulic models, these processes do not necessarily translate into more complex emerging behavior at plant scale, and might justify the use of simplified representations of the soil-plant hydraulic system.

An export-marketing model for pharmaceutical firms (the case of iran).

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

2013-01-01

Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalization process, followed by examining different methods and models for assessing preparation for export activities and examining conceptual model based on a single case study method on a basket of seven leading domestic firms by using mainly questionares as the data gathering tool along with interviews for bias reduction. Finally, in keeping with the study objectives, the special aspects of the pharmaceutical marketing environment have been covered, revealing special dimensions of pharmaceutical marketing that have been embedded within the appropriate base model. The new model for international activities of pharmaceutical companies was refined by expert opinions extracted from result of questionnaires.

An Export-Marketing Model for Pharmaceutical Firms (The Case of Iran)

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

2013-01-01

Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalization process, followed by examining different methods and models for assessing preparation for export activities and examining conceptual model based on a single case study method on a basket of seven leading domestic firms by using mainly questionares as the data gathering tool along with interviews for bias reduction. Finally, in keeping with the study objectives, the special aspects of the pharmaceutical marketing environment have been covered, revealing special dimensions of pharmaceutical marketing that have been embedded within the appropriate base model. The new model for international activities of pharmaceutical companies was refined by expert opinions extracted from result of questionnaires. PMID:24250597

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

2007-01-01

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

2011-01-01

Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

Capacity Market Design: Motivation and Challenges in Alberta’s Electricity Market

OpenAIRE

David Brown

2018-01-01

Alberta’s electricity market is currently undergoing a period of substantial transition. The province should proceed with caution as it switches from an energy-only electricity market to a capacity market by 2021. Many other jurisdictions have already made the changeover and Alberta can learn from their experiences in order to avoid common mistakes and pitfalls that can arise with the deployment of a capacity market.There were growing concerns that the existing electricity market structure wo...

The Simulation of Financial Markets by Agent-Based Mix-Game Models

OpenAIRE

Chengling Gou

2006-01-01

This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

Target Marketing and Ethics Brand Advertising and Marketing Campaigns

OpenAIRE

Gyongyi K. Fogel; Lorinda F. Lewis

2010-01-01

Marketing to a targeted minority can provide a competitive advantage for an organization. However, there are ethical and legal concerns that must be carefully evaluated. Youth, children, and protected minorities, including women and the elderly, are a high target of advertising because of the increasing importance of these segments in making purchasing decisions. Recent population and demographic factors continue to impact marketing to address minority marketing issues with careful attention ...

Advanced Modeling of Renewable Energy Market Dynamics: May 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Evans, M.; Little, R.; Lloyd, K.; Malikov, G.; Passolt, G.; Arent, D.; Swezey, B.; Mosey, G.

2007-08-01

This report documents a year-long academic project, presenting selected techniques for analysis of market growth, penetration, and forecasting applicable to renewable energy technologies. Existing mathematical models were modified to incorporate the effects of fiscal policies and were evaluated using available data. The modifications were made based on research and classification of current mathematical models used for predicting market penetration. An analysis of the results was carried out, based on available data. MATLAB versions of existing and new models were developed for research and policy analysis.

Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

1979-01-01

An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela OPAIT

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

Economy, market and chain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sukkel, W.; Hommes, M.

2009-01-01

In their pursuit of growth and professionalisation, the Dutch organic sector focuses primarily on market development. But how do you stimulate the market for organic foods? This is the subject of many research projects concerning market, consumer preferences and the supply chain. These projects

Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Limpaitoon, Tanachai

This dissertation presents an equilibrium framework for analyzing the impact of cap-and-trade regulation on transmission-constrained electricity market. The cap-and-trade regulation of greenhouse gas emissions has gained momentum in the past decade. The impact of the regulation and its efficacy in the electric power industry depend on interactions of demand elasticity, transmission network, market structure, and strategic behavior of firms. I develop an equilibrium model of an oligopoly electricity market in conjunction with a market for tradable emissions permits to study the implications of such interactions. My goal is to identify inefficiencies that may arise from policy design elements and to avoid any unintended adverse consequences on the electric power sector. I demonstrate this modeling framework with three case studies examining the impact of carbon cap-and-trade regulation. In the first case study, I study equilibrium results under various scenarios of resource ownership and emission targets using a 24-bus IEEE electric transmission system. The second and third case studies apply the equilibrium model to a realistic electricity market, Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 225-bus system with a detailed representation of the California market. In the first and second case studies, I examine oligopoly in electricity with perfect competition in the permit market. I find that under a stringent emission cap and a high degree of concentration of non-polluting firms, the electricity market is subject to potential abuses of market power. Also, market power can occur in the procurement of non-polluting energy through the permit market when non-polluting resources are geographically concentrated in a transmission-constrained market. In the third case study, I relax the competitive market structure assumption of the permit market by allowing oligopolistic competition in the market through a conjectural variation approach. A short-term equilibrium

On Transaction-Cost Models in Continuous-Time Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Poufinas

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs, built in certain recommended ways, have to be paid. Markets prove to behave in manners that resemble those of complete ones for a wide variety of transaction-cost types. The results are important, but not exclusively, for the pricing of options with transaction costs.

Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

2012-05-29

It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

Symmetry breaking in a bull and bear financial market model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sushko, Iryna; Tramontana, Fabio; Westerhoff, Frank; Avrutin, Viktor

2015-01-01

We investigate bifurcation structures in the parameter space of a one-dimensional piecewise linear map with two discontinuity points. This map describes endogenous bull and bear market dynamics arising from a simple asset-pricing model. An important feature of our model is that some speculators only enter the market if the price is sufficiently distant to its fundamental value. Our analysis starts with the investigation of a particular case in which the map is symmetric with respect to the origin, associated with equal market entry thresholds in the bull and bear market. We then generalize our analysis by exploring how novel bifurcation structures may emerge when the map’s symmetry is broken.

Dynamic VaR Measurement of Gold Market with SV-T-MN Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fenglan Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available VaR (Value at Risk in the gold market was measured and predicted by combining stochastic volatility (SV model with extreme value theory. Firstly, for the fat tail and volatility persistence characteristics in gold market return series, the gold price return volatility was modeled by SV-T-MN (SV-T with Mixture-of-Normal distribution model based on state space. Secondly, future sample volatility prediction was realized by using approximate filtering algorithm. Finally, extreme value theory based on generalized Pareto distribution was applied to measure dynamic risk value (VaR of gold market return. Through the proposed model on the price of gold, empirical analysis was investigated; the results show that presented combined model can measure and predict Value at Risk of the gold market reasonably and effectively and enable investors to further understand the extreme risk of gold market and take coping strategies actively.

The market features of imported non-indigenous polychaetes in Portugal and consequent ecological concerns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Fidalgo e Costa

2006-12-01

Full Text Available The importance of the market for polychaetes dramatically increased after the discovery of their potential as food in aquaculture. In Portugal, the gathering of polychaetes solely from natural populations is not sufficient to meet market demand, both as bait for sea anglers and as a food item in aquaculture. The requests for worms to polychaete dealers by Portuguese and Spanish seafarms have increased during recent years. Due to the lack of intensive culture of these worms in Portugal and the proximity of southern Spanish farms, a large component of imported polychaetes that arrive in Portugal at Lisbon Airport go directly to Spain by road. In 2002 and 2003 a total of 12,728,379 and 16,866,839 polychaetes respectively were imported to Europe via Lisbon Airport from China and the USA. In 2003 the imports from China and the USA realised 716,180 and 291,845 US dollars respectively. Two species were reported to have been imported in these years, namely the Korean blue ragworm Perinereis aibuhitensis and the American bloodworm Glycera dibranchiata. Imports of non-indigenous species, which are traded and sold alive, may increase the risk of accidental introduction into the wild. This is of special concern as Perinereis aibuhitensis has been successfully reared in captivity within the range of environmental conditions existing in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon. Other risks associated with introduced species are the transport of foreign pathogens and other associated non-native organisms, which may act as carriers of disease.

Investigating Effective Components of Higher Education Marketing and Providing a Marketing Model for Iranian Private Higher Education Institutions

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmaee, Roya Babaee; Nadi, Mohammad Ali; Shahtalebi, Badri

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study and identify the effective components of higher education marketing and providing a marketing model for Iranian higher education private sector institutions. Design/methodology/approach: This study is a qualitative research. For identifying the effective components of higher education marketing and…

The Model of Integrated Marketing Communication: Who has the Role to Influence Consumer Behaviour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olimpia Elena Mihaela Oancea

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is proposes a theoretical framework to investigate the models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour, and the development a model of integrated marketing communication. The research goals aim the following aspects: (a The analyze of the IMC concept; (b Identifying and analyzing the main models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour; (c Identifying the variables that will be included in the conceptual model of integrated marketing communication proposed. A review of the integrated marketing communication literature show the fact that were developed a series models of integrated marketing communication which has the role to influence the consumer buying behavior, but these not capture the correlation between the following factors: sociological variables, external stimuli, integrated marketing communication and consumer behavior. The method used was the secondary research in order to fulfill the research objectives established. The major result of this paper consists in proposing of a new conceptual model of integrated marketing communication that captures the correlation between external stimuli - sociological variables - integrated marketing communication - consumer behavior.

A Dynamic Model of the Combined Electricity and Natural Gas Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jenkins, Sandra; Annaswamy, Anuradha M.; Hansen, Jacob

2015-01-01

With the shale gas revolution, coal retirements, environmental regulations, and increasing renewable energy resources, the interdependency of natural gas and electricity has grown significantly. Interdependency challenges, such as mismatched market schedules and disparate market operations, require...... quantitative modeling in order to garner insights into the effectiveness of various solutions. In this paper, a quantitative model with a dynamic market mechanism is proposed to evaluate the effects of the fuel uncertainty of natural gas-fired power plants on Social Welfare. The results of the model show...

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abada, Ibrahim, E-mail: ibrahim.abada@polytechnique.edu [IFP Energies nouvelles, 1 et 4 avenue de Bois Preau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); EDF Research and Development, 1 avenue du General de Gaulle, 92140 Clamart (France); EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest (France); Massol, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.massol@ifpen.fr [Center for Economics and Management, IFP School, 228-232 av. Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Department of Economics, City University London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

2011-07-15

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: > We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. > Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. > Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. > Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. > Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization reasons.

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

2011-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: → We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. → Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. → Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. → Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. → Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization

COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris V. Mednikov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

Are we moving towards functioning agricultural markets and trade relations?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brosig, Stephan; Glauben, Thomas; Levkovych, Inna

2016-01-01

We introduce a special feature on the functioning of international agricultural markets. This feature is motivated by the increased interest in the functioning of commodity markets raised by unprecedented price turbulences since 2008, major structural changes through changed roles of emerging...... economies and related concerns regarding food security. We argue that the delineation of non-functioning markets from markets that adequately adjusted to adverse framework conditions lacks theoretical foundation. We discuss the relevance of some results on institutions for agricultural markets in emerging...... and transition countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics that span a topical range covering price formation on world and domestic markets, market power and trade policy modelling....

Logistical modelling of managerial decisions in social and marketing business systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleksandr Velychko

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Logistical modelling of business systems within the context of mathematical logistics, logistical management, operational research as well as rationalistic provision of logistics at an enterprise have been considered in the article. The research was carried out on the methodological basis which included the authors’ developments and implied conveying familiar knowledge on new objects within the field of linear programming. Scientific novelty concerns the development of categorical toolkit as well as the existing methodical approaches of rationalistic logistics to managerial decisions. Rational areas of using terms “logistical model” and “model of logistics” in business environment have been determined. The authors’ methodology of constructing logistical models in management of separate social and marketing systems of enterprises according to minimization and maximization criteria is presented. Ways of using modelling at not conventional objects of logistical support for managerial decisions have been suggested in the context of studying the moral psychological climate of staff and complex estimation of socioeconomic measures of staff management improvement. The procedure of logistical optimization in the system of distributing and advertising activity of the enterprise has been developed. Approbation of the developed models has been carried out and possibilities for further model’s complication by output data, variables, and limitations under specific practical conditions have been grounded.

Tourism Marketing.

Science.gov (United States)

North Carolina State Dept. of Public Instruction, Raleigh. Div. of Vocational Education.

This document contains teacher materials for a 6-unit, 1-year distributive education course in marketing tourism offered in grades 11 and 12 in North Carolina. Although in general the material presented concerns marketing tourism anywhere, some of it is specifically related to tourism within North Carolina. A purpose statement explains the…

Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers

Science.gov (United States)

van Ooteghem, Jan; Tesch, Tom; Verbrugge, Sofie; Ackaert, Ann; Colle, Didier; Pickavet, Mario; Demeester, Piet

In order to address the increasing costs of providing care to the growing group of elderly, efficiency gains through eCare solutions seem an obvious solution. Unfortunately not many techno-economic business models to evaluate the return of these investments are available. The construction of a business case for care for the elderly as they move through different levels of dependency and the effect of introducing an eCare service, is the intended application of the model. The simulation model presented in this paper allows for modeling evolution of market shares of competing care providers. Four tiers are defined, based on the dependency level of the elderly, for which the market shares are determined. The model takes into account available capacity of the different care providers, in- and outflow distribution between tiers and churn between providers within tiers.

Documentation of the Uranium Market Model (UMM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

The Uranium Market Model is used to make projections of activity in the US uranium mining and milling industry. The primary data sources were EIA, the Nuclear Assurance Corporation, and, to a lesser extent, Nuexco and Nuclear Resources International. The Uranium Market Model is a microeconomic simulation model in which uranium supplied by the mining and milling industry is provided to meet the demand for uranium by electric utilities with nuclear power plants. Uranium is measured on a U 3 O 8 (uranium oxide) equivalent basis. The model considers every major production center and utility on a worldwide basis (with Centrally Planned Economies considered in a limited way), and makes annual projections for each major uranium production and consumption region in the world. Typically, nine regions are used: the United States, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Other Africa, Europe, Latin America, the Far East, and Other. Production centers and utilities are identified as being in one of these regions. In general, the model can accommodate any user-provided set of regional definitions and data

A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

2017-02-01

A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

Supplier choice and WTP for electricity attributes in an emerging market: The role of perceived past experience, environmental concern and energy saving behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amador, Francisco Javier; González, Rosa Marina; Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier

2013-01-01

This study analyzes customers' preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for certain service attributes in an electricity supplier choice context. Specifically, a stated preference choice experiment is conducted in the Canary Islands' residential market where limited competition exists. Preferences for different electricity suppliers and three level-of-service attributes are investigated, namely, supply reliability, share of renewable energies and availability of a complementary energy audit service. The results might be interpreted as an indication of different aspects new firms need to consider if they plan to enter in the market. There is an opportunity for new companies to establish in the market, though evidence of brand loyalty to the current company and/or significant switching costs are also found, especially in the case of older people. Regarding the estimated WTP, several results should be highlighted. First, customers who have experienced more serious outages in the past tend to show a higher WTP to reduce the outage frequency. Second, highly-educated respondents, those who state a great concern for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and those who carry out energy saving actions in their homes exhibit a larger WTP for renewable energies. This empirical evidence provides useful information for authorities responsible for energy policy design. - Highlights: • A stated choice experiment is conducted in the Canary Islands' residential market. • Serious outages in the past lead to a higher WTP to reduce the outage frequency. • A higher education level explains a greater WTP for renewables. • People concerned for emissions and energy savers show greater WTP for renewables. • These findings provide useful information for energy policy design

PARTICULARITIES CONCERNING THE CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MARKETING MIX IN PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS

OpenAIRE

Sica STANCIU

2010-01-01

The marketing mix is the essential instrument in implementing marketing in the public sector. This paper brings into evidence the particularities of conceiving, elaborating and applying the marketing mix in public institutions. The particularities of the marketing mix that is applied in public institutions are imposed, on one hand, by the role played by the public institution and the place it occupies in the contemporary society and, on the other hand, by the objectives it defines by its mark...

Self-employment in an equilibrium model of the labor market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jake Bradley

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Self-employed workers account for between 8 and 30 % of participants in the labor markets of OECD countries (Blanchower, Self-employment: more may not be better, 2004. This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model of the labor market that accounts for this sizable proportion. The model incorporates self-employed workers, some of whom hire paid employees in the market. Employment rates and earnings distributions are determined endogenously and are estimated to match their empirical counterparts. The model is estimated using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS. The model is able to estimate nonpecuniary amenities associated with employment in different labor market states, accounting for both different employment dynamics within state and the misreporting of earnings by self-employed workers. Structural parameter estimates are then used to assess the impact of an increase in the generosity of unemployment benefits on the aggregate employment rate. Findings suggest that modeling the self-employed, some of whom hire paid employees implies that small increases in unemployment benefits leads to an expansion in aggregate employment. JEL Classification J21, J24, J28, J64

IS CAPM AN EFFICIENT MODEL? ADVANCED VERSUS EMERGING MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulian IHNATOV

2015-10-01

Full Text Available CAPM is one of the financial models most widely used by the investors all over the world for analyzing the correlation between risk and return, being considered a milestone in financial literature. However, in recently years it has been criticized for the unrealistic assumptions it is based on and for the fact that the expected returns it forecasts are wrong. The aim of this paper is to test statistically CAPM for a set of shares listed on New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Warsaw Stock Exchange and Bucharest Stock Exchange (developed markets vs. emerging markets and to compare the expected returns resulted from CAPM with the actually returns. Thereby, we intend to verify whether the model is verified for Central and Eastern Europe capital market, mostly dominated by Poland, and whether the Polish and Romanian stock market index may faithfully be represented as market portfolios. Moreover, we intend to make a comparison between the results for Poland and Romania. After carrying out the analysis, the results confirm that the CAPM is statistically verified for all three capital markets, but it fails to correctly forecast the expected returns. This means that the investors can take wrong investments, bringing large loses to them.

Models of the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

1991-01-01

Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

Internal and external market orientation as organizational resources - consequences for market and financial performance

OpenAIRE

Boris Snoj; Vladimir Gabrijan; Borut Milfelner

2010-01-01

The concept of internal marketing has been discussed in marketing literature for over 30 years. Despite this fact there is little theoretical and empirical evidence of the way in which the internal market orientation impacts market and financial performance. On the other hand, there is considerable empirical evidence concerning the impact of the external market orientation on market and financial performance. Consequently, very few research projects have dealt with the impact of both market o...

THE MODEL OF THE FIVE COMPETITIVE FORCES ON ROMANIAN RETAIL MARKET

OpenAIRE

SILVIA PUIU

2010-01-01

The paper is about the model of the five competitive forces of Michael Porter. In the first part, I have presented the theoretical aspects of the model and after that, I tried to apply the model on the retail market in Romania. I used data gathered from national and international institutes of market research and also from the information offered by the main retailers on their web sites. The retail market in our country is not very good crystalized, but has had a good evolution in the last ye...

Theoretical Model of Pricing Behavior on the Polish Wholesale Fuel Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bejger Sylwester

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a theoretical model of strategic pricing behavior of the players in a Polish wholesale fuel market. This model is consistent with the characteristics of the industry, the wholesale market, and the players. The model is based on the standard methodology of repeated games with a built-in adjustment to a focal price, which resembles the Import Parity Pricing (IPP mechanism. From the equilibrium of the game, we conclude that the focal price policy implies a parallel pricing strategic behavior on the market.

A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

KAUST Repository

Douglas, C C; Hyoseop Lee,; Wonsuck Lee,

2011-01-01

Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents

Neural Networks Modelling of Municipal Real Estate Market Rent Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muczyński Andrzej

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on the application of neural networks modelling of municipal real estate market rent rates. The test procedure was based on selected networks trained on the local real estate market data and transformation of the detected dependencies – through established models – to estimate the potential market rent rates of municipal premises. On this basis, the assessment of the adequacy of the actual market rent rates of municipal properties was made. Empirical research was conducted on the local real estate market of the city of Olsztyn in Poland. In order to describe the phenomenon of market rent rates formation an unidirectional three-layer network and a network of radial base was selected. Analyses showed a relatively low degree of convergence of the actual municipal rent rents with potential market rent rates. This degree was strongly varied depending on the type of business ran on the property and its’ social and economic impact. The applied research methodology and the obtained results can be used in order to rationalize municipal property management, including the activation of rental policy.

SYSTEMIC RESEARCH MODEL OF DEVELOPMENT OF MARKETING THOUGHT AND EDUCATION IN CROATIA

OpenAIRE

Renko, Nataša

2001-01-01

The author conceived the model for systemic research of development of marketing thought and education in Croatia. The model consists of six elements which are completely interactive and have essential influence on development of marketing educational system. The model also helped to evaluate historical occurences which had preceded and influenced the present situation in Croatia, and which might have possible consequences to future development of marketing educational system in Croatia.

Strategic forward contracting in electricity markets: modelling and analysis by equilibrium method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wong, K.P.; Yu, C.W.; Chung, C.Y.

2004-01-01

Contractual arrangement plays an important role in mitigating market power in electricity markets. The issue of whether rational generators would voluntarily enter contract markets through a strategic incentive is examined, and the factors which could affect this strategic contracting behaviour. A two-stage game model is presented to formulate the competition of generators in bid-based pool spot markets and contract markets, as well as the interaction between these two markets. The affine supply function equilibrium (SFE) method is used to model competitive bidding for the spot market, while the contract market is modelled with the general conjectural variation method. The proposed methodology allows asymmetric, multiple strategic generators having capacity constraints and affine marginal costs with non-zero intercepts to be taken into account. It is shown that the presence of forward contract markets will complicate the solution to the affine SFE, and a new methodology is developed in this regard. Strategic contracting behaviours are analysed in the context of asymmetric, multiple strategic generators. A numerical example is used to verify theoretical results. It is shown that the observability of contract markets plays an important role in fostering generators' strategic contracting incentive, and that this contracting behaviour could also be affected by generators' cost parameters and demand elasticity. (author)

77 FR 19280 - Increasing Market and Planning Efficiency Through Improved Software; Notice of Technical...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-30

... concerns that current system data quality might not allow for an AC optimal power flow model to be properly... Market and Planning Efficiency Through Improved Software; Notice of Technical Conference: Increasing Real-Time and Day- Ahead Market Efficiency Through Improved Software Take notice that Commission staff will...

Microeconomics of Agricultural Grading: Impacts on the Marketing Channel

OpenAIRE

David A. Hennessy

1995-01-01

In this paper I focus on how grade prices affect the provision of product transformation skills in the food marketing system. A self-protection model is used to show how resources are allocated to protect the potential value of commodities in the marketing channel. Resource allocations may be complementary, and complementarity may be exploited to expand an industry. Further, uncertainty concerning skill levels may inhibit expansion. Because two primary objectives of agricultural extension inv...

A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lise, W.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Kuik, O.; Kemfert, C.; Ostling, R.; Heinzow, T.

2006-01-01

This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight

Modelling of hydro and wind power in the regulation market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiviluoma, J.; Holttinen, H.; Meibom, P.

2006-01-01

The amount of required regulation capacity in the power system is affected by the wind power prediction errors. A model has been developed which can evaluate the monetary effects of prediction errors. The model can be used to evaluate (1) the regulation costs of wind power, (2) regulation market prices including effects related to the participation of power producers in the regulating power market, (3) value of accurate wind forecasts and (4) the effect of decreasing the length of the spot market clearance. This article discusses the problems related to developing a realistic model of the regulating power market including the interaction between the spot market and the regulating power market. There are several issues that make things complicated. (1) How to calculate the minimum amount of needed secondary (minute) reserves. Traditionally the Nordic TSOs have used an N-1 criteria in each country to determine the required amounts of positive secondary reserve, but as installed wind power capacity grows, it will become relevant to include the wind power prediction errors in the estimation of secondary reserves. (2) Consumption forecast errors and plant outages also contribute to activation of regulating power and should have stochastic input series besides wind power. (3) Risk premiums and transaction costs in the regulating power market are difficult to estimate as well as the effects of the possible use of market power. This is especially true in the Nordic system with the high share of hydro power, since the water value and hydrological limitations make things more complex than in a thermal system. (4) The available regulation capacity is not necessarily equal to the truly available capacity. All producers don't participate in the regulation market although in principle they could. (orig.)

A model to decompose the performance of supplementary private health insurance markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Leidl, Reiner

2008-09-01

For an individual insurance firm offering supplementary private health insurance, a model is developed to decompose market performance in terms of insurer profits. For the individual contract, the model specifies the conditions under which adverse selection, cream skimming, and moral hazard occur, shows the impact of information on contracting, and the profit contribution. Contracts are determined by comparing willingness to pay for insurance with the individual's risk position, and information on both sides of the market. Finally, performance is aggregated up to the total market. The model provides a framework to explain the attractiveness of supplementary markets to insurers.

Advances in segmentation modeling for health communication and social marketing campaigns.

Science.gov (United States)

Albrecht, T L; Bryant, C

1996-01-01

Large-scale communication campaigns for health promotion and disease prevention involve analysis of audience demographic and psychographic factors for effective message targeting. A variety of segmentation modeling techniques, including tree-based methods such as Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection and logistic regression, are used to identify meaningful target groups within a large sample or population (N = 750-1,000+). Such groups are based on statistically significant combinations of factors (e.g., gender, marital status, and personality predispositions). The identification of groups or clusters facilitates message design in order to address the particular needs, attention patterns, and concerns of audience members within each group. We review current segmentation techniques, their contributions to conceptual development, and cost-effective decision making. Examples from a major study in which these strategies were used are provided from the Texas Women, Infants and Children Program's Comprehensive Social Marketing Program.

A dynamic marketing model with best reply and inertia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bischi, Gian Italo; Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo

2015-01-01

In this paper we consider a nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Farris et al. (2005) as a market share attraction model with two firms that decide marketing efforts over time according to best reply strategies with naïve expectations. The model also considers an adaptive adjustment toward best reply, a form of inertia or anchoring attitude, and we investigate the effects of heterogeneities among firms. A rich scenario of local and global bifurcations is obtained even with just two competing firms, and a comparison is proposed with apparently similar duopoly models based on repeated best reply dynamics with naïve expectations and adaptive adjustment.

Three-Factor Market-Timing Models with Fama and French's Spread Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joanna Olbryś

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The traditional performance measurement literature has attempted to distinguish security selection, or stock-picking ability, from market-timing, or the ability to predict overall market returns. However, the literature finds that it is not easy to separate ability into such dichotomous categories. Some researchers have developed models that allow the decomposition of manager performance into market-timing and selectivity skills. The main goal of this paper is to present modified versions of classical market-timing models with Fama and French’s spread variables SMB and HML, in the case of Polish equity mutual funds. (original abstract

A Multilateral Negotiation Model for Cloud Service Market

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Dongjin; Sim, Kwang Mong

Trading cloud services between consumers and providers is a complicated issue of cloud computing. Since a consumer can negotiate with multiple providers to acquire the same service and each provider can receive many requests from multiple consumers, to facilitate the trading of cloud services among multiple consumers and providers, a multilateral negotiation model for cloud market is necessary. The contribution of this work is the proposal of a business model supporting a multilateral price negotiation for trading cloud services. The design of proposed systems for cloud service market includes considering a many-to-many negotiation protocol, and price determining factor from service level feature. Two negotiation strategies are implemented: 1) MDA (Market Driven Agent); and 2) adaptive concession making responding to changes of bargaining position are proposed for cloud service market. Empirical results shows that MDA achieved better performance in some cases that the adaptive concession making strategy, it is noted that unlike the MDA, the adaptive concession making strategy does not assume that an agent has information of the number of competitors (e.g., a consumer agent adopting the adaptive concession making strategy need not know the number of consumer agents competing for the same service).

An Examination of Interactive Whiteboard Perceptions using the Concerns-Based Adoption Model Stages of Concern and the Apple Classrooms of Tomorrow Model of Instructional Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Jeffrey; Chamblee, Gregory; Slough, Scott

2013-01-01

Two high school mathematics teachers who use Interactive Whiteboards (IWBs) in the classroom were interviewed annually over the course of three years regarding their perceptions of the technology. During the third year, the two teachers were asked to complete the Concerns-Based Adoption Model Stages of Concern Questionnaire. The data obtained from…

Natural gas market - Market opening in Switzerland and a selection of European Union countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wild, J.; Vaterlaus, S.; Worm, H.; Spielmann, Ch.; Finger, M.

2007-02-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the situation in Switzerland and Europe as far as the liberalisation of the natural gas market is concerned. Comparisons are made between the situation for natural gas and electricity markets. The report discusses the economical and technical characteristics of the gas business such as gas sources, transport, storage and trading as well as the associated investment risks. The gas and electricity supply systems are compared from the supply and demand viewpoints and as far as trading and the increasing of efficiency are concerned. The Swiss gas market is compared with those of selected European countries. Market structures and regulatory aspects are examined and the resulting effects on the market and gas prices are reviewed. The effects of market opening are discussed from both the supplier and consumer points of view

Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables

OpenAIRE

Fok, D.; Paap, R.

2003-01-01

textabstractPurchase timing of households is usually modeled at the category level. Marketing efforts are however only available at the brand level. Hence, to describe category-level interpurchase times using marketing efforts one has to construct a category-level measure of marketing efforts from the marketing mix of individual brands. In this paper we discuss two standard approaches suggested in the literature to solve this problem, that is, using individual choice shares as weights to aver...

Analyzing interaction of electricity markets and environmental policies using equilibrium models

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yihsu

Around the world, the electric sector is evolving from a system of regulated vertically-integrated monopolies to a complex system of competing generation companies, unregulated traders, and regulated transmission and distribution. One emerging challenge faced by environmental policymakers and electricity industry is the interaction between electricity markets and environmental policies. The objective of this dissertation is to examine these interactions using large-scale computational models of electricity markets based on noncooperative game theory. In particular, this dissertation is comprised of four essays. The first essay studies the interaction of the United States Environmental Protection Agency NOx Budget Program and the mid-Atlantic electricity market. This research quantifies emissions, economic inefficiencies, price distortions, and overall social welfare under various market assumptions using engineering-economic models. The models calculate equilibria for imperfectly competitive markets---Cournot oligopoly---considering the actual landscape of power plants and transmission lines, and including the possibility of market power in the NOx allowances market. The second essay extends the results from first essay and models imperfectly competitive markets using a Stackelberg or leader-follower formulation. A leader in the power and NO x markets is assumed to have perfect foresight of its rivals' responses. The rivals' best response functions are explicitly embedded in the leader's constraints. The solutions quantify the extent to which a leader in the markets can extract economic rents on the expense of its followers. The third essay investigates the effect of implementing the European Union (EU) CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on wholesale power prices in the Western European electricity market. This research uses theoretical and computational modeling approaches to quantify the degree to which CO2 costs were passed on to power prices, and quantifies the

A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2011-06-01

Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

Democracy versus dictatorship in self-organized models of financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

D'Hulst, R.; Rodgers, G. J.

2000-06-01

Models to mimic the transmission of information in financial markets are introduced. As an attempt to generate the demand process, we distinguish between dictatorship associations, where groups of agents rely on one of them to make decision, and democratic associations, where each agent takes part in the group decision. In the dictatorship model, agents segregate into two distinct populations, while the democratic model is driven towards a critical state where groups of agents of all sizes exist. Hence, both models display a level of organization, but only the democratic model is self-organized. We show that the dictatorship model generates less-volatile markets than the democratic model.

Early marketing matters : A time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Osinga, E.C.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides

Models of Customer Behavior as a Basis of Marketing Strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T A Ivanova

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of six main models of customer behavior in contemporary society and the specific tasks of marketing departments of companies at today's stage of development. The given models take into consideration: motives for choosing a product, the degree of product awareness and independence of choice, the degree of customer satisfaction with the product, lines and possibilities of making an impact on customer choice through marketing and promotion stimulation. The author believes that these models may serve as a basis in the formation of effective marketing strategies, as they describe the customers in all the stages of their actions in the process of buying products, accumulating and analyzing the experience of using them.

An empirical and model study on automobile market in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Ji-Ying; Qiu, Rong; Zhou, Yueping; He, Da-Ren

2006-03-01

We have done an empirical investigation on automobile market in Taiwan including the development of the possession rate of the companies in the market from 1979 to 2003, the development of the largest possession rate, and so on. A dynamic model for describing the competition between the companies is suggested based on the empirical study. In the model each company is given a long-term competition factor (such as technology, capital and scale) and a short-term competition factor (such as management, service and advertisement). Then the companies play games in order to obtain more possession rate in the market under certain rules. Numerical simulation based on the model display a competition developing process, which qualitatively and quantitatively agree with our empirical investigation results.

Modeling of a green certificate market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchenko, O.V.

2008-01-01

The paper considers one of the economic mechanisms, stimulating the introduction of renewable energy sources (RES) - a green certificate market. A mathematical model was developed to describe a supply and demand balance in the electricity and green certificate markets simultaneously. The sellers of certificates are RES owners, who obtain certificates for each unit of electricity produced, and the buyers are consumers, who are obliged by law to buy a certain share of this electricity. Equilibrium structures of the power system including RES with stochastic operation conditions are calculated. The prices of electricity and certificates, as well as the total economic effect of the system are determined taking into account external costs (environmental damages). The paper shows that a mechanism of green certificates is not an ideal means for minimizing the impact of energy on the environment: the economic effect turns out to be smaller than the maximum possible one. However, this deviation is relatively small, therefore the green certificate market allows the external effects to be partially taken into account. Such a market creates incentives for investors, electricity producers and consumers to make power sources mix, modes of electricity production and consumption closer to the optimum ones in terms of the economy as a whole. (author)

Market, Regulation, Market, Regulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frankel, Christian; Galland, Jean-Pierre

2015-01-01

barriers to trade in Europe, realized the free movement of products by organizing progressively several orders of markets and regulation. Based on historical and institutional documents, on technical publications, and on interviews, this article relates how the European Commission and the Member States had......This paper focuses on the European Regulatory system which was settled both for opening the Single Market for products and ensuring the consumers' safety. It claims that the New Approach and Standardization, and the Global Approach to conformity assessment, which suppressed the last technical...... alternatively recourse to markets and to regulations, at the three main levels of the New Approach Directives implementation. The article focuses also more specifically on the Medical Devices sector, not only because this New Approach sector has long been controversial in Europe, and has recently been concerned...

Modeling and analysis of strategic forward contracting in transmission constrained power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, C.W.; Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wang, X.

2010-01-01

Taking the effects of transmission network into account, strategic forward contracting induced by the interaction of generation firms' strategies in the spot and forward markets is investigated. A two-stage game model is proposed to describe generation firms' strategic forward contracting and spot market competition. In the spot market, generation firms behave strategically by submitting bids at their nodes in a form of linear supply function (LSF) and there are arbitrageurs who buy and resell power at different nodes where price differences exceed the costs of transmission. The owner of the grid is assumed to ration limited transmission line capacity to maximize the value of the transmission services in the spot market. The Cournot-type competition is assumed for the strategic forward contract market. This two-stage model is formulated as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC); in which each firm's optimization problem in the forward market is a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and parameter-dependent spot market equilibrium as the inner problem. A nonlinear complementarity method is employed to solve this EPEC model. (author)

Family characteristics and health behaviour as antecedents of school nurses' concerns about adolescents' health and development: a path model approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Poutiainen, Hannele; Levälahti, Esko; Hakulinen-Viitanen, Tuovi; Laatikainen, Tiina

2015-05-01

Family socio-economic factors and parents' health behaviours have been shown to have an impact on the health and well-being of children and adolescents. Family characteristics have also been associated with school nurses' concerns, which arose during health examinations, about children's and adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development. Parental smoking has also been associated with smoking in adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine to what extent school nurses' concerns about adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development related to family characteristics are mediated through parents' and adolescents' own health behaviours (smoking). A path model approach using cross-sectional data was used. In 2008-2009, information about health and well-being of adolescents was gathered at health examinations of the Children's Health Monitoring Study. Altogether 1006 eighth and ninth grade pupils in Finland participated in the study. The associations between family characteristics, smoking among parents and adolescents and school nurses' concerns about adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development were examined using a structural equation model. Paternal education had a direct, and, through fathers' and boys' smoking, an indirect association with school nurses' concerns about the physical health of boys. Paternal labour market status and family income were only indirectly associated with concerns about the physical health of boys by having an effect on boys' smoking through paternal smoking, and a further indirect effect on concerns about boys' health. In girls, only having a single mother was strongly associated with school nurses' concerns about psychosocial development through maternal and adolescent girl smoking. Socio-economic family characteristics and parental smoking influence adolescent smoking and are associated with school nurses' concerns about adolescents' physical health and psychosocial development. The findings

How Can Marketing Academics Serve Marketing Practice? The New Marketing DNA as a Model for Marketing Education

Science.gov (United States)

Harrigan, Paul; Hulbert, Bev

2011-01-01

This article seeks to address how marketing academics can best serve marketing practice through marketing education. It is contended that, where technology is driving marketing in practice, it is afforded significantly less attention in both theory and education. Thus, the marketing graduates being produced from universities are often lacking in…

Business models in commercial media markets: Bargaining, advertising, and mixing

OpenAIRE

Thöne, Miriam; Rasch, Alexander; Wenzel, Tobias

2016-01-01

We consider a product and a media market and show how a change in the business model employed by the media platforms affects consumers, producers (or advertisers), and price negotiations for advertisements. On both markets, two firms differentiated á la Hotelling compete for consumers. On the media market, consumers can mix between the two outlets whereas on the product market, consumers have to decide for one supplier. With pay-tv, as opposed to free-to-air, mixing by consumers disappears, p...

The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

1996-01-01

The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

Modelling wedding marketing strategies: An fsQCA Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anestis Fotiadis

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Aim of the study is to develop a model delineating customer perceptions on wedding marketing strategies in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Main objective of this paper is to analyse a category of special events: the wedding market sector in Kaohsiung, Taiwan by examining how they attract consumers regarding their marketing strategies using the method of fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA. Based on a survey to married, in relationship and singles local citizens of Taiwan the relationships between impressions, importance, push factors with decision making was explored. To test the hypotheses of the proposed model a primary research study was conducted employing a mall intercept technique via distribution of a self-administered questionnaire within a cross sectional on-site field research context. A fsQCA modelling approach technique was employed in order to measure, estimate and confirm the different casual paths constructs, as well as to test the significance of the paths between different segments of the wedding industry. Our findings reveal that the presence of importance, push factors and decision making determines the level of consumer perception performance. However, impressions do not show significant impact on consumer perceptions.

Market formation and market selection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Raalte, C.L.J.P.

1996-01-01

The organization of markets is an important field of inquiry in modern economic theory. This monograph analyzes models which consider the formation and selection of markets. In these models, markets are organized by middlemen and used by traders. In Part I of the monograph, coalitions of middlemen

Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison

OpenAIRE

Elina Bakhtieva

2017-01-01

The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap...

NETWORK BASED BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION TARGETING THE BOP MARKET

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravn, Jacob; Kroghstrup Nielsen, Martin; Lindgren, Peter

2009-01-01

Through innovation of products, process and business models targeting the needs of 4 billion poor people living at "the base of pyramid" (BoP) (Prahalad & Hart 2002) in developing countries the private sector can actively support poverty alleviation and at the same time reach new untouched market....... - A market is estimated a value of 5.3 trillion US$ (Hammond, Kramer, Tran, Kratz 2007). A number of researchers has dealt with the BoP - market potential and not least tried to understand how to penetrate this apparent blue ocean. Two distinct lines of thought when targeting BoP markets in developing...... & Halme 2008). The market and customer line - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoPline - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoP market through product adaptation selling soap in smaller packages (Hart & Christensen 2002, Prahalad 2006). Based on the case study...

Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

2014-01-01

We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation.

Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies; Marketing Erneuerbarer Energien. Grundlagen, Geschaeftsmodelle, Fallbeispiele

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herbes, Carsten [HfWU Nuertingen-Geislingen, Nuertingen (Germany); Friege, Christian (ed.)

2015-07-01

How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [German] Wie vermarktet man Oekostrom oder Biomethan? Was ist der richtige Preis fuer Erneuerbare Energien und wie gestaltet man den optimalen Einsatz von Social Media? Welche Auswirkungen haben das EEG oder die Elektromobilitaet auf das Gruenstrom-Marketing? Funktioniert Direktvertrieb oder ist Online-Marketing der Erfolgsgarant? Antworten auf diese und viele weitere grundlegende Fragen liefert dieser Band mit Beitraegen fuehrender Wissenschaftler und renommierter Praktiker. Erstmals beschreiben sie hier in strukturierter Form die Grundlagen der Vermarktung von Erneuerbaren Energien, fuehren in die gesetzlichen und marktlichen Besonderheiten ein und stellen neue Geschaeftsmodelle vor. Das Buch fusst auf aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen, behandelt saemtliche fuer Praktiker wichtige Fragen der Vermarktung, liefert Fallbeispiele und konkrete Empfehlungen.

The Simulation of Financial Markets by an Agent-Based Mix-Game Model

OpenAIRE

Chengling Gou

2006-01-01

This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

INFLUENCE OF MARKETING ENVIRONMENT ON THE TOY MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Violeta A. ANDREIANA (Mihaescu

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Along with the passage of time, parents have manifested a different attitude towards their children, trying to offer them everything they wanted in what concerns the toys. Therefore, the toy market is constantly expending, and the tough competition leads to the quality improvement of the toys and enforces certain standards on the market. The originality and topicality of the theme consist in the change in the toy consumers’ and users’ preferences which required greater attention to be paid to the influence manifested by the marketing environment on this market. The case study identifies the occurred problems and the toy influence factors by an analysis over the marketing environment components, i.e.: marketing internal environment, micro-environment and macro-environment. The study ends with the recommendation of several solutions for the improvement of the current situation.

Ethics in marketing communication

OpenAIRE

Silvia MUHCINA; Veronica POPOVICI

2008-01-01

As well as the entire business world, marketing has its own ethics problems. Numerous marketing specialists or their representatives have consciously declared and adopted different engagements, declarations or codes of rules regarding the necessity that marketing people consider ethics regulations and values, so that they become much more responsible towards the members of society. These declarations or rules concern marketing practices in their ensemble or are guided towards certain specific...

Destination Marketing through a Utility Business Model: The Case of Cyprus

OpenAIRE

Machlouzarides, Haris

2009-01-01

Traditional business models that used to govern the operations of travel and tourism businesses defined in a rigid way their functional areas and the relationships among them. The advent of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) has driven the transformation of these business models into novel destination marketing models. The Cyprus Tourism Organisation (CTO) recognising the need of establishing an explicit model for managing the process of destination marketing has developed an in...

Alternative energy and environmental concerns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The New Brunswick Market Design Committee will address environmental concerns within the context of the new energy policy and market rules for the newly restructured electric power industry. The new rules that come with power restructuring will in some ways facilitate environmental protection but they can also complicate it. With open access markets, it will be possible to coordinate evolving energy frameworks with current environmental objectives. Restructuring provides an opportunity to create incentives and guidelines to operate in an environmentally sustainable manner, as suggested in the New Brunswick Energy Policy, White Paper which outlines green pricing, the development of a provincial Climate Change Action Plan, and promotion of alternative energy. The Market Design Committee examined the environmental concerns listed within the White Paper that pertain to the generation and transmission of electricity. These include the integration of energy and environmental policy. Other issues addressed in this report were trans-boundary and global air emissions, the development of a provincial climate change action plan, and a federal-provincial climate change framework agreement. New Brunswick will encourage the development of pilot studies that demonstrate the benefits of renewable and alternative technologies and that help promote the market to manufacture, sell and maintain renewable and alternative technologies in small-scale on-site power generation. This report also discussed the 4 key air pollutants for which specific treatment has been defined, including sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, mercury and carbon dioxide. Recommendations for reducing these emissions include the use of renewable energy sources, the use of lower carbon fuels, increased efficiency of power transmission/generation/distribution systems, reducing power demand by the industrial sector, and promoting energy efficient building codes. 34 refs., 1 tab

Financial Investment Management: Testing the Market Model on the Romanian Capital Market during the Post Financial Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radu CIOBANU

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This article presents an analysis of the decision of investing in the capital market in Romania during 2009-2010, in the context of overcoming the global financial crisis. In the first part of the paper, we have made a brief presentation of the simplified model of market analysis introduced in the specialized literature by William Sharpe, the respective model representing the starting point in our study. The purpose of the present study is to emphasize how the evolutions of the financial securities rates listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange could be explained based on the evolution of BET Romanian capital market index. Although the study over this phenomenon has begun in the middle of the last century, every day new studies appear that are either coming in addition to the already existing ones or are bringing a new approach regarding the financial theory. The novelty of the present study conducted by us resides in the highlighting of the evolutions of the financial securities rates during July 2009 – December 2010 periods. The second part of the paper presents the results of a study conducted on the Romanian capital market, emphasizing the correlations between the most important securities on the Romanian capital market, as parts of BET index and market index. The aim is to check whether during this period the evolution of the financial securities’ return can be explained more or less by the return of the capital market.

Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

2005-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

A CcP model of the stock market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shimshon Bichler

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Most explanations of stock market booms and busts are based on contrasting the underlying ‘fundamental’ logic of the economy with the exogenous, non-economic factors that presumably distort it. Our paper offers a radically different model, examining the stock market not from the mechanical viewpoint of a distorted economy, but from the dialectical perspective of capitalized power. The model demonstrates that (1 the valuation of equities represents capitalized power; (2 capitalized power is dialectically intertwined with systemic fear; and (3 systemic fear and capitalized power are mediated through strategic sabotage. This triangular model, we posit, can offer a basis for examining the asymptotes, or limits, of capitalized power and the ways in which these asymptotes relate to the historical and ongoing transformation of the capitalist mode of power.

Modeling the time-changing dependence in stock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frezza, Massimiliano

2012-01-01

The time-changing dependence in stock markets is investigated by assuming the multifractional process with random exponent (MPRE) as model for actual log price dynamics. By modeling its functional parameter S(t, ω) via the square root process (S.R.) a twofold aim is obtained. From one hand both the main financial and statistical properties shown by the estimated S(t) are captured by surrogates, on the other hand this capability reveals able to model the time-changing dependence shown by stocks or indexes. In particular, a new dynamical approach to interpreter market mechanisms is given. Empirical evidences are offered by analysing the behaviour of the daily closing prices of a very known index, the Industrial Average Dow Jones (DJIA), beginning on March,1990 and ending on February, 2005.

MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNAL LABOR MARKET (BASING ON CASES OF THE SVERDLOVSK REGION CITY-FORMING ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.V. Orekhova

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an estimation procedure of regional labor market influence on sustainability of internal labor market institutions. The paper refines the categories of regional and internal labor market. Internal labor market institutions have been classified and evaluated regarding the level of their sustainability (basing on cases of the Sverdlovsk region city-forming enterprises. As a result the model of labor expenses evaluation is elaborated for enterprises concerned.

Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Bury, Thomas

2013-03-01

Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

Competitive power markets and grid reliability : keeping the promise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goulding, D.

2005-01-01

This white paper discussed various links between restructuring, competitive markets and reliability in the consolidation of electricity markets in Ontario. A historical approach was used, and the first section of the paper reviewed how reliability was managed in the pre-market period. The second section discussed the current reliability model and some of the general issues it has raised, as well as lessons learned. Structural reforms were reviewed. It was noted that currently dominant generators hold more market share than is compatible with ideas of workable competition. Issues concerning the mitigation of market power were discussed, with specific reference to the importance of public opinion. The need for mandatory standards and inclusive processes was emphasized, as well as the implementation of effective communication strategies and consumer education. A resource adequacy mechanism was recommended. The role of the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) was reviewed. Issues concerning consumer protection were examined. Future priorities included investment in infrastructure and reliability, as well as a realignment of markets. It was suggested that energy and reserve trading are critical for ensuring reliability in the market paradigm. Markets and inter-regional trading were discussed in terms of promoting reliability. Improvements in infrastructure were recommended, as well as a reduction in trade barriers. It was concluded that an over-arching, industry-wide commitment to investing in reliability is essential for managing the restructuring and reliability relationship in the years ahead. 15 refs

Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

2001-01-01

This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

Modeling investor sentiment and overconfidence in an agent-based stock market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lovric, M.; Kaymak, U.; Spronk, J.

2010-01-01

Agent-based stock markets as bottom-up models of financial markets allow us to study the link between individual investor behavior and aggregate market phenomena, and as such are a useful tool for investigating the implications of behavioral finance and investor psychology. In this paper we want to

Electric market models, competitive model and alternative design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)