WorldWideScience

Sample records for market dynamics alec

  1. Dynamics of Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2004-06-01

    Standard texts and research in economics and finance ignore the absence of evidence from the analysis of real, unmassaged market data to support the notion of Adam Smith's stabilizing Invisible Hand. In stark contrast, this text introduces a new empirically-based model of financial market dynamics that explains the volatility of prices options correctly and clarifies the instability of financial markets. The emphasis is on understanding how real markets behave, not how they hypothetically 'should' behave.

  2. Dynamic international oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van der Linde, C.

    1992-01-01

    Dynamic International Oil Market Developments and Structure 1860-1990 discusses the logic of changing market structures of the international oil industry. The market structures have, in the course of time, oscillated between competition and oligopoly, as the oil market expanded, matured, stagnated, and expanded again. This book provides a dynamic interpretation of the intensifying struggle among producer, and consumer governments, and oil companies, over the distribution of economic rents and profits. In particular, it shows the shifting fortunes of the governments and companies as they try to control the recurring capacity constraints between the upstream and downstream sectors, generated by the instability of the oil market. The first part of the book examines market conditions and developments between 1860 and 1990; the second part analyzes market structures after 1945

  3. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  4. Dynamics of Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2009-09-01

    Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

  5. Electricity market dynamics: Oligopolistic competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2006-01-01

    Presently, electricity markets are characterized by a small number of suppliers with distributed resources. These market suppliers can easily be identified because their geographic location is known. Essentially, two or three of them compete for leading the market whereas the rest of them follow. Hence, it is necessary to study the market structure as ologopolistic competition rather than perfect competition. This paper studies market producer decisions in a dynamic sequential framework by using discrete event system simulation (DESS) also known as discrete control theory. Two-player ologopolistic market structure is presented in this paper. (author)

  6. Modelling Market Dynamics with a "Market Game"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kei; Chen, Yu

    In the financial market, traders, especially speculators, typically behave as to yield capital gains by the difference between selling and buying prices. Making use of the structure of Minority Game, we build a novel market toy model which takes account of such the speculative mind involving a round-trip trade to analyze the market dynamics as a system. Even though the micro-level behavioral rules of players in this new model is quite simple, its macroscopic aggregational output has the reproducibility of the well-known stylized facts such as volatility clustering and heavy tails. The proposed model may become a new alternative bottom-up approach in order to study the emerging mechanism of those stylized qualitative properties of asset returns.

  7. Dynamic bifurcations on financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozłowska, M.; Denys, M.; Wiliński, M.; Link, G.; Gubiec, T.; Werner, T.R.; Kutner, R.; Struzik, Z.R.

    2016-01-01

    We provide evidence that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, preceded by early warning signs such as flickering phenomena, are present on notoriously unpredictable financial markets. For this we construct robust indicators of catastrophic dynamical slowing down and apply these to identify hallmarks of dynamical catastrophic bifurcation transitions. This is done using daily closing index records for the representative examples of financial markets of small and mid to large capitalisations experiencing a speculative bubble induced by the worldwide financial crisis of 2007-08.

  8. Dynamics of electricity market correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

    2009-06-01

    Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

  9. A Dynamic Market Mechanism for Markets with Shiftable Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Kiani, Arman

    2014-01-01

    renewables, this mechanism accommodates both consumers with a shiftable Demand Response and an adjustable Demand Response. The overall market mechanism is evaluated in a Day Ahead Market and is shown in a numerical example to result in a reduction of the cost of electricity for the consumer, as well......In this paper, we propose a dynamic market mechanism that converges to the desired market equilibrium. Both locational marginal prices and the schedules for generation and consumption are determined through a negotiation process between the key market players. In addition to incorporating...

  10. Market Dynamics and Productivity in Developing Countries ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    25 nov. 2009 ... Market Dynamics and Productivity in Developing Countries : Economic Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa. Book cover Market Dynamics and Productivity in Developing Countries: Economic Reforms in the Middle East. Directeur(s):. Khalid Sekkat. Maison(s) d'édition: Springer, CDRI. 25 novembre ...

  11. Correlation dynamics in East Asian financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lestano, L; Kuper, Gerard H.

    2016-01-01

    We examine the dynamic relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes using daily data from January 1994 to September 2013 for six East Asian countries. We use the multivariate GARCH-DCC model in order to disclose the relationship between stock markets and foreign exchange markets

  12. Dynamics of market orientation in Croatian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana First

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available It was the goal of this research to examine the dynamics of Croatian transformation to market orientation and test whether the market orientation model changes with time as the business environment changes. Based on the literature analysis, we proposed a hypothetical model which relies on behavioural approach in understanding market orientation. To empirically test the hypothetical model, we used data previously collected for 2001, and by replicating the same questionnaire now collected data for 2011. Data was analyzed by hierarchical regression analysis on the two sets of data. Our findings reveal that Croatian organizations reached the level of moderate market orientation leaving space for improvement. Findings also reveal that higher level of market orientation correlates with higher business performance. Furthermore, with development of ICT, the model of market orientation modified in time in a way that in predicting successful market oriented reaction, specific information on consumer satisfaction gains importance, while general information from competitor and consumer databases lose importance. Despite the changes in the relationships among the elements of market orientation, the model itself similarly predicts performance today as it did ten years ago. Managers are advised to increase implementation of market orientation especially focusing on market responsiveness as such behaviour will lead to better performance.

  13. Dynamic Stock Market Participation of Households

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market articipation cost is about 5% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed articipation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....

  14. DYNAMICS OF THE ROMANIAN ILLEGAL DRUG MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Caunic

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Globalization has led to an increase in commercial activities running on the illegal markets, its dynamics being largely determined by the balance between profitability and the major risks involved. Revenuesare significant, one example being those obtained from drug industry. In recent years, illicit drug trafficking has seen in Romania an unprecedented escalation, as a result of market liberalization and the movement of per sons and because of the extending the phenomenon both among producers and consumers. This article examines the size of the Romanian illegal drug markets, the countries of origin and drugtransit routes, as well as the profits made by the drug trafficking networks.

  15. Dynamic Model of Market with Uninformed Market Maker

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin; Kopa, Miloš

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 5 (2017), s. 922-958 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : market maker * optimal decision * price and inventory * high frequency data * dynamic model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://www.library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/smid-0483753.pdf

  16. The Joint Dynamics of Equity Market Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Langlois, Hugues

    2013-01-01

    The 4 equity market factors from Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997) are pervasive in academia and practice. However, not much is known about their joint distribution and dynamics. We find striking evidence of asymmetric tail dependence across the factors. While the linear factor correlatio...

  17. Dynamic capabilities, Marketing Capability and Organizational Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Roseli Wünsch Takahashi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the study is to investigate the influence of dynamic capabilities on organizational performance and the role of marketing capabilities as a mediator in this relationship in the context of private HEIs in Brazil. As a research method we carried out a survey with 316 IES and data analysis was operationalized with the technique of structural equation modeling. The results indicate that the dynamic capabilities have influence on organizational performance only when mediated by marketing ability. The marketing capability has an important role in the survival, growth and renewal on educational services offerings for HEIs in private sector, and consequently in organizational performance. It is also demonstrated that mediated relationship is more intense for HEI with up to 3,000 students and other organizational profile variables such as amount of courses, the constitution, the type of institution and type of education do not significantly alter the results.

  18. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    This publication by the National Energy Board is part of a continuing program of assessing applications for long-term natural gas export licences. The market-based procedure used by the Board is based on the premise that the marketplace will generally operate in a way that will ensure that Canadian requirements for natural gas will be met at fair market prices. The market--based procedure consists of a public hearing and a monitoring component. The monitoring component involves the on-going assessment of Canadian energy markets to provide analyses of major energy commodities on either an individual or integrated commodity basis. This report is the result of the most recent assessment . It identifies factors that affect natural gas prices and describes the functioning of regional markets in Canada. It provides an overview of the energy demand, including recent trends, reviews the North American gas supply and markets, the natural gas pricing dynamics in Canada, and a regional analysis of markets, prices and dynamics in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In general, demand growth outstripped growth in supply, but natural gas producers throughout North America have been responding to the current high price environment with aggressive drilling programs. The Board anticipates that in time, there will be a supply and demand response and accompanying relief in natural gas prices. A review of the annual weighted average border price paid for Alberta gas indicates that domestic gas users paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices converged, suggesting that Canadians have had access to natural gas at prices no less favourable than export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems such as NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had significant impact on the pricing of natural gas. These systems, by providing timely information to market participants. enables them to manage price

  19. Liquid markets and market liquids . Collective and single-asset dynamics in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuniberti, G.; Matassini, L.

    2001-04-01

    We characterize the collective phenomena of a liquid market. By interpreting the behavior of a no-arbitrage N asset market in terms of a particle system scenario, (thermo)dynamical-like properties can be extracted from the asset kinetics. In this scheme the mechanisms of the particle interaction can be widely investigated. We test the verisimilitude of our construction on two-decade stock market daily data (DAX30) and show the result obtained for the interaction potential among asset pairs.

  20. Simulating market dynamics : Interactions between consumer psychology and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.A; Jager, W.

    2003-01-01

    Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or a few products, to markets with continual penetration of new and reintroduced products. in a previous article we explored the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation

  1. Dynamic portfolio optimization across hidden market regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Regime-based asset allocation has been shown to add value over rebalancing to static weights and, in particular, reduce potential drawdowns by reacting to changes in market conditions. The predominant approach in previous studies has been to specify in advance a static decision rule for changing...... the allocation based on the state of financial markets or the economy. In this article, model predictive control (MPC) is used to dynamically optimize a portfolio based on forecasts of the mean and variance of financial returns from a hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters. There are computational...... than a buy-and-hold investment in various major stock market indices. This is after accounting for transaction costs, with a one-day delay in the implementation of allocation changes, and with zero-interest cash as the only alternative to the stock indices. Imposing a trading penalty that reduces...

  2. Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractTo comprehend the competitive structure of a market, it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on market shares. A useful model to link market shares with marketing-mix variables, like price and promotion, is the market share attraction model.

  3. Patching. Restitching business portfolios in dynamic markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhardt, K M; Brown, S L

    1999-01-01

    In turbulent markets, businesses and opportunities are constantly falling out of alignment. New technologies and emerging markets create fresh opportunities. Converging markets produce more. And of course, some markets fade. In this landscape of continuous flux, it's more important to build corporate-level strategic processes that enable dynamic repositioning than it is to build any particular defensible position. That's why smart corporate strategists use patching, a process of mapping and remapping business units to create a shifting mix of highly focused, tightly aligned businesses that can respond to changing market opportunities. Patching is not just another name for reorganizing; patchers have a distinctive mindset. Traditional managers see structure as stable; patching managers believe structure is inherently temporary. Traditional managers set corporate strategy first, but patching managers keep the organization focused on the right set of business opportunities and let strategy emerge from individual businesses. Although the focus of patching is flexibility, the process itself follows a pattern. Patching changes are usually small in scale and made frequently. Patching should be done quickly; the emphasis is on getting the patch about right and fixing problems later. Patches should have a test drive before they're formalized but then be tightly scripted after they've been announced. And patching won't work without the right infrastructure: modular business units, fine-grained and complete unit-level metrics, and companywide compensation parity. The authors illustrate how patching works and point out some common stumbling blocks.

  4. The Complex Dynamics of Sponsored Search Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han; Bohte, Sander

    This paper provides a comprehensive study of the structure and dynamics of online advertising markets, mostly based on techniques from the emergent discipline of complex systems analysis. First, we look at how the display rank of a URL link influences its click frequency, for both sponsored search and organic search. Second, we study the market structure that emerges from these queries, especially the market share distribution of different advertisers. We show that the sponsored search market is highly concentrated, with less than 5% of all advertisers receiving over 2/3 of the clicks in the market. Furthermore, we show that both the number of ad impressions and the number of clicks follow power law distributions of approximately the same coefficient. However, we find this result does not hold when studying the same distribution of clicks per rank position, which shows considerable variance, most likely due to the way advertisers divide their budget on different keywords. Finally, we turn our attention to how such sponsored search data could be used to provide decision support tools for bidding for combinations of keywords. We provide a method to visualize keywords of interest in graphical form, as well as a method to partition these graphs to obtain desirable subsets of search terms.

  5. Dynamics of the Croatian electricity market opening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesut, D.; Zeljko, M.; Zutobradic, S.

    2003-01-01

    Customer eligibility is regulated by the Law on Electricity Market and its Article 23 (Official Gazette 79/01). Eligibility is understood as a possible supplier choice. To ensure the eligible status, annual demand should exceed 40 GWh. The category of customers that has gained the eligibility status based on the Law on Electricity Market makes out a total of around 7 percent of the annual electric energy consumption in Croatia. Thus, it can be said that electricity market openness in Croatia lies somewhat below 10 percent. According to the already mentioned Article 23, paragraph 4, the Government may determine annual demand threshold lowering as a condition to grant the eligibility status. According to the Law on Gas Market from 2001, the category of eligible gas customers in Croatia includes all electricity generators who use gas, regardless of the annual gas consumption, and other customers whose annual consumption exceeds 100 million m3. In 2002 there were seven such customers and they participated with 1,374,160,000 m3, i.e. 51 percent in the total gas consumption. As INA is the sole natural gas producer in Croatia with a long-term contract on the supply line lease for the transportation of Russian gas, it is also the only supplier of natural gas. Therefore, in 2002 each eligible customer bought gas from INA. Issues related to this field are: what kind of dynamics should one proceed with toward further energy market opening in Croatia? How large is this share of electricity, i.e. gas consumption in Croatia? What are the prerequisites, both organisational and technical, for this kind of market opening? (author)

  6. Dynamics of world oil crops market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežević Marija

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the harvested area, oil crops are the second most important crops after cereals. Soybean is the most important oil crop in terms of production and trade of oilseeds and meals, and second most important in terms of production and trade of vegetable oils after palm oil. Dynamics of prices of derived oil crop products in the international market is conditioned by the relationship between supply and demand in the overall market of oil crops. The substitution of animal fats with vegetable oils in human nutrition, the expansion of biodiesel industry and intensification of livestock production have led to increased demand for oil crops. The objective of this paper was to identify trends in production, consumption and trade of soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower and their derived products.

  7. Price dynamics in European petroleum markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wlazlowski, Szymon; Giulietti, Monica; Binner, Jane; Milas, Costas

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyses horizontal and vertical price dynamics in the EU petroleum markets. The results indicate that the cross-country price differentials have significant impact on the local price adjustments. We investigate the cross-national price spill-overs and find that the extent of the welfare transfer due to asymmetric price transmission, when analysed in a cross-country setting, is less pronounced than claimed in previous contributions in this area. We also find empirical evidence, although indirect, for the politically charged concept of 'fuel tourism', using a pan-European cross-product time series dataset. (author)

  8. Dynamic market behaviour of autonomous network based power systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokic, A.; Wittebol, E.H.M.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.

    2006-01-01

    Dynamic models of real-time markets are important since they lead to additional insights of the behavior and stability of power system markets. The main topic of this paper is the analysis of real-time market dynamics in a novel power system structure that is based on the concept of autonomous

  9. Better Jobs for Central American Women: Labour Market Dynamics ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    More than 60% of women work in such jobs. ... self-employment and to provide technical and marketing skills to potential women entrepreneurs. ... prepare a comparative analysis of labour market dynamics in El Salvador and Nicaragua; ...

  10. n-Person Dynamic Strategic Market Games

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiecek, Piotr, E-mail: Piotr.Wiecek@pwr.wroc.pl [Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science (Poland)

    2012-04-15

    We present a discrete n-person model of a dynamic strategic market game. We show that for some values of the discount factor the game possesses a stationary equilibrium where all the players make high bids. Within the class of all the high-bidding strategies we distinguish between two classes of more and less aggressive ones. We show that the set of discount factors for which these more aggressive strategies form equilibria shrinks as n goes to infinity. On the other hand, the analogous set for the less aggressive strategies grows to the whole interval (0,1) as n grows to infinity. Further we analyze the properties of the value function corresponding to these high-bidding equilibria. We also give some numerical examples contradicting some other properties that seem intuitive.

  11. Financial market dynamics: superdiffusive or not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devi, Sandhya

    2017-08-01

    The behavior of stock market returns over a period of 1-60 d has been investigated for S&P 500 and Nasdaq within the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics. Even for such long terms, the distributions of the returns are non-Gaussian. They have fat tails indicating that the stock returns do not follow a random walk model. In this work, a good fit to a Tsallis q-Gaussian distribution is obtained for the distributions of all the returns using the method of Maximum Likelihood Estimate. For all the regions of data considered, the values of the scaling parameter q, estimated from 1 d returns, lie in the range 1.4-1.65. The estimated inverse mean square deviations (beta) show a power law behavior in time with exponent values between  -0.91 and  -1.1 indicating normal to mildly subdiffusive behavior. Quite often, the dynamics of market return distributions is modelled by a Fokker-Plank (FP) equation either with a linear drift and a nonlinear diffusion term or with just a nonlinear diffusion term. Both of these cases support a q-Gaussian distribution as a solution. The distributions obtained from current estimated parameters are compared with the solutions of the FP equations. For negligible drift term, the inverse mean square deviations (betaFP) from the FP model follow a power law with exponent values between  -1.25 and  -1.48 indicating superdiffusion. When the drift term is non-negligible, the corresponding betaFP do not follow a power law and become stationary after certain characteristic times that depend on the values of the drift parameter and q. Neither of these behaviors is supported by the results of the empirical fit.

  12. DYNAMIC OPTIMAL BUDGET ALLOCATION FOR INTEGRATED MARKETING CONSIDERING PERSISTENCE

    OpenAIRE

    SHIZHONG AI; RONG DU; QIYING HU

    2010-01-01

    Aiming at forming dynamic optimal integrated marketing policies, we build a budget allocation model considering both current effects and sustained ones. The model includes multiple time periods and multiple marketing tools which interact through a common resource pool as well as through delayed cross influences on each other's sales, reflecting the nature of "integrated marketing" and its dynamics. In our study, marginal analysis is used to illuminate the structure of optimal policy. We deriv...

  13. The dynamic interdependence of international financial markets: An empirical study on twenty-seven stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingwei; Zheng, Xiaolong; Zeng, Daniel Dajun

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we aim to investigate the dynamic interdependence of international financial markets. Based on the data regarding daily returns of each market during the period 2006-2015 from Yahoo finance, we mainly focus on examining 27 markets from three continents, including Asia, America and Europe. By checking the dynamic interdependence between those markets, we find that markets from different continents have strong correlation at specific time shift. We also obtain that markets from different continents not only have a strong linkage with others at same day, but at a delay of one day, especially between Asia, Europe and Asia, America. In addition, we further analyze the time-varying influence strength between each two continents and observe that this value has abnormal changes during the financial crisis. These findings can provide us significant insights to understand the underlying dynamic interdependency of international financial markets and further help us make corresponding reasonable decisions.

  14. Dynamic analysis on market structure of China's coal industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Qing; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Xin

    2017-01-01

    According to industrial organization theory, market structure is a crucial factor to market performance. Based on the VAR model and the data from 1994 to 2014, we revealed the dynamic response route of the market structure to these factors and the change process of contribution rate of these factors to the market structure. It shows that market structure is inertial adjustment; technology advance and industry policy have continuous effects on improvement of market concentration ratio; market size and production scale have sustained negative effects on market concentration ratio; fixed capital has barrier effect, which is mainly the entry barrier effect at the beginning, and then the exit barrier effect continues to play a leading role. Therefore, the government has no need to introduce special policies to encourage merger or expansion on the capacity as enterprises would do it spontaneously; it is necessary to make market access system stricter, to improve exit compensation mechanism and to promote technological innovation; all these policies need dynamic adjustment based on the stages of economic cycle. - Highlights: • The adjustment mechanism of China's coal market structure is revealed. • Technology and industry policy are significant factors to optimize the market structure. • The government need not introduce special policy to encourage merger. • The market access system should be stricter. • Policies strength should be dynamically adjusted based on the economic cycle.

  15. Stock market dynamics created by interacting agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Riad Remita

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a stock market model, consisting in a large number of agents, going eventually to infinity, and evaluate the stock price under the influence of opinions of different agents. Next we study the behavior of prices when the market is very nervous; there appear discontinuities (phase transitions which can be interpreted as stock market crashes.

  16. Changing Dynamics in the Voluntary Market (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heeter, J.

    2014-12-01

    Voluntary green power markets are those in which consumers and institutions voluntarily purchase renewable energy to match their electricity needs. This presentation, presented at the Renewable Energy Markets Conference in December 2014, outlines the voluntary market in 2013, including community choice aggregation and community solar.

  17. Simulating market dynamics: interactions between consumer psychology and social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Marco A; Jager, Wander

    2003-01-01

    Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or a few products, to markets with continual penetration of new and reintroduced products. In a previous article we explored the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation model. The main results indicated that the behavioral rules dominating the artificial consumer's decision making determine the resulting market dynamics, such as fashions, lock-in, and unstable renewal. Results also show the importance of psychological variables like social networks, preferences, and the need for identity to explain the dynamics of markets. In this article we extend this work in two directions. First, we will focus on a more systematic investigation of the effects of different network structures. The previous article was based on Watts and Strogatz's approach, which describes the small-world and clustering characteristics in networks. More recent research demonstrated that many large networks display a scale-free power-law distribution for node connectivity. In terms of market dynamics this may imply that a small proportion of consumers may have an exceptional influence on the consumptive behavior of others (hubs, or early adapters). We show that market dynamics is a self-organized property depending on the interaction between the agents' decision-making process (heuristics), the product characteristics (degree of satisfaction of unit of consumption, visibility), and the structure of interactions between agents (size of network and hubs in a social network).

  18. Dynamic Matching Markets and the Deferred Acceptance Mechanism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kennes, John; Monte, Daniel; Tumennasan, Norovsambuu

    In many dynamic matching markets, priorities depend on previous allocations. In such environments, agents on the proposing side can manipulate the period-by-period deferred acceptance (DA) mechanism. We show that the fraction of agents with incentives to manipulate the DA mechanism approaches zero...... as the market size increases. In addition, we provide a novel al- gorithm to calculate the percentage of markets that can be manipulated. Based on randomly generated data, we find that the DA becomes approximately non-manipulable when the schools capacity reaches 20. Our theoretical and simulation results...... together justify the implementation of the period-by-period DA mechanism in dynamic markets....

  19. Traveler’s Diarrhea Market: Evolving market trends and dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Smita Deshmukh

    2016-01-01

    Traveler’s Diarrhea Market: Overview Traveler’s diarrhea refers to intestinal and stomach infection and occurs due to unsanitary conditions during handling of food. This disorder is characterized by frequent abdominal cramps resulting in loose stools and is usually caused by consumption of contaminated water or food. Travelling from one place to another where the sanitary conditions, social conditions, climate and other factors are different and hence presents high risk of developin...

  20. Dynamics of Timber Market Integration in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishal Chandr Jaunky

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the performance of the timber markets (Scots pine, Pinus silvestris L. and Norway spruce, Picea abies (L. Karst. by evaluating the order of market integration in three Swedish regions (Central, Northern, and Southern. Quarterly data of delivery prices are employed over the period 1999Q1–2012Q4. Various unit root and cointegration tests have been computed. The results indicate that the variables are integrated of first order and co-integrated, especially after controlling for structural breaks. This supports the law-of-one-price hypothesis (LOP. However, the effects of structural shocks on forestry are arguably significant and these are controlled for while performing a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM-based Granger-causality test. Bi-directional causality between the Northern and central markets is uncovered in the short-run. In the long-run, a similar causal effect is detected between Northern and Southern markets while the central market emerges as the price leader. Further investigation is carried out using variance decompositions and impulse response functions and these approaches also tend to confirm the existence of a single market well, as price interdependence between markets.

  1. Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandretti, Laura; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2017-01-01

    The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of $100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction. PMID:29291057

  2. Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElBahrawy, Abeer; Alessandretti, Laura; Kandler, Anne; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2017-11-01

    The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of $100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction.

  3. Dynamic Asset Allocation and the Informational Efficiency of Markets.

    OpenAIRE

    Grossman, Sanford J

    1995-01-01

    Markets have an allocational role; even in the absence of news about payoffs, prices change to facilitate trade and allocate resources to their best use. Allocational price changes create noise in the signal extraction process, and markets where such trading is important are markets in which we may expect to find a failure of informational efficiency. An important source of allocational trading is the use of dynamic trading strategies caused by the incomplete equitization of risks. Incomplete...

  4. Dynamic Portfolio Selection on Croatian Financial Markets: MGARCH Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Škrinjarić, Tihana; Šego, Boško

    2016-01-01

    Background: Investors on financial markets are interested in finding trading strategies which could enable them to beat the market. They always look for best possibilities to achieve above-average returns and manage risks successfully. MGARCH methodology (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) makes it possible to model changing risks and return dynamics on financial markets on a daily basis. The results could be used in order to enhance portfolio formation an...

  5. Dynamic Portfolio Selection on Croatian Financial Markets: MGARCH Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Škrinjarić Tihana

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Investors on financial markets are interested in finding trading strategies which could enable them to beat the market. They always look for best possibilities to achieve above-average returns and manage risks successfully. MGARCH methodology (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity makes it possible to model changing risks and return dynamics on financial markets on a daily basis. The results could be used in order to enhance portfolio formation and restructuring over time.

  6. Dynamic interaction between markets for leasing and selling automobiles

    OpenAIRE

    Andrikopoulos, Athanasios; Markellos, Raphael N.

    2015-01-01

    We develop a model of dynamic interactions between price variations in leasing and selling markets for automobiles. Our framework assumes a differential game between multiple Bertrand-type competing firms which offer differentiated products to forward-looking agents. Empirical analysis of our model using monthly US data from 2002 to 2011 shows that variations in selling (cash) market prices lead rapidly dissipating changes of leasing market prices in the opposite direction. We discuss the pra...

  7. Differences in Dynamic Brand Competition Across Markets: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Pierre Dubé; Puneet Manchanda

    2005-01-01

    We investigate differences in the dynamics of marketing decisions across geographic markets empirically. We begin with a linear-quadratic game involving forward-looking firms competing on prices and advertising. Based on the corresponding Markov perfect equilibrium, we propose estimable econometric equations for demand and marketing policy. Our model allows us to measure empirically the strategic response of competitors along with economic measures such as firm profitability. We use a rich da...

  8. The dynamics of Chinese rural households' participation in labor markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brosig, S.; Glauben, T.; Herzfeld, T.; Rozelle, S.; Wang, X.

    2007-01-01

    The work is devoted to the dynamics of labor market participation of Chinese rural households. Based on a theoretical farm household framework the choice between four distinct labor market participation states is empirically analyzed. Using household data over the period 1995¿2002 from the province

  9. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  10. Multi-product dynamic advertisement planning in a segmented market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggarwal Sugandha

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamic multi-objective linear integer programming model is proposed to optimally distribute a firm’s advertising budget among multiple products and media in a segmented market. To make the media plan responsive to the changes in the market, the distribution is carried out dynamically by dividing the planning horizon into smaller periods. The model incorporates the effect of the previous period advertising reach on the current period (taken through retention factor, and it also considers cross-product effect of simultaneously advertising different products. An application of the model is presented for an insurance firm that markets five different products, using goal programming approach.

  11. The futility of utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2000-10-01

    Economic theorizing is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics I show the following. A utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrable dynamics when production/investment are accounted for, resolving Mirowski's thesis. Price as a function of demand does not exist mathematically either. All equilibria are unstable. I then explain how deterministic chaos can be distinguished from random noise at short times. In the generalization to liquid markets and finance theory described by stochastic excess demand dynamics, I also show the following. Market price distributions cannot be rescaled to describe price movements as ‘equilibrium’ fluctuations about a systematic drift in price. Utility maximization does not describe equilibrium. Maximization of the Gibbs entropy of the observed price distribution of an asset would describe equilibrium, if equilibrium could be achieved, but equilibrium does not describe real, liquid markets (stocks, bonds, foreign exchange). There are three inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct. Prices in unregulated free markets are unstable against both noise and rising or falling expectations: Adam Smith's stabilizing invisible hand does not exist, either in mathematical models of liquid market data, or in real market data.

  12. Dynamic Decision Making in Agricultural Futures and Options Markets?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of traderâ¿¿s

  13. Regional labour market dynamics in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broersma, Lourens; van Dijk, J.

    This article analyzes the response of regional labor markets in the Netherlands to region-specific labor demand shocks. Previous studies show remarkable differences in response between regions in European countries and regions in the United States. The analysis shows that, in Dutch regions, the

  14. Age-specific labor market dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gielen, A. C.

    2008-01-01

    One important finding concerns the fact that job separations for older workers constitute mostly a one-way exit out of the labor force, despite the fact that an ageing society calls for an active labor market participation from us all. Also, the allocation of labor for younger workers has shown to

  15. Market dynamics of biomass fuel in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delaney, W.F.; Zane, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    The California market for biomass fuel purchased by independent power producers has grown substantially since 1980. The PURPA legislation that based power purchase rates upon the 'avoided cost' of public utilities resulted in construction of nearly 900 Megawatts of capacity coming online by 1991. Until 1987, most powerplants were co-sited at sawmills and burned sawmill residue. By 1990 the installed capacity of stand-alone powerplants exceeded the capacity co-sited at wood products industry facilities. The 1991 demand for biomass fuel is estimated as 6,400,000 BDT. The 1991 market value of most biomass fuel delivered to powerplants is from $34 to $47 per BDT. Biomass fuel is now obtained from forest chips, agriculture residue and urban wood waste. The proportion of biomass fuel from the wood products industry is expected to decline and non-traditional fuels are expected to increase in availability

  16. Dynamic Stock Market Participation of Households with Heterogeneous Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 5% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....

  17. Termination of Dynamic Contracts in an Equilibrium Labor Market Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Cheng

    2005-01-01

    I construct an equilibrium model of the labor market where workers and firms enter into dyamic contracts that can potentially last forever, but are subject to optimal terminations. Upon a termination, the firm hires a new worker, and the worker who is terminated receives a termination compensation from the firm and is then free to go back to the labor market to seek new employment opportunities and enter into new dynamic contracts. The model permits only two types of equilibrium terminations ...

  18. Information Exchange, Market Transparency and Dynamic Oligopoly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Per Baltzer; Møllgaard, Peter

    2005-01-01

    In the economics literature, various views on the likely (efficiency) effects of information exchange,communication between firms and market transparency present themselves. Often these views oninformation flows are highly conflicting. On the one hand, it is argued that increased...... informationdissemination improves firm planning to the benefit of society (including customers) and/or allowspotential customers to make the right decisions given their preferences. On the other hand, theliterature also suggests that increased information dissemination can have significant coordinating orcollusive......, where informational issues have played a significant role....

  19. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  20. Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dieci, Roberto; Foroni, Ilaria; Gardini, Laura; He Xuezhong

    2006-01-01

    Empirical evidence has suggested that, facing different trading strategies and complicated decision, the proportions of agents relying on particular strategies may stay at constant level or vary over time. This paper presents a simple 'dynamic market fraction' model of two groups of traders, fundamentalists and trend followers, under a market maker scenario. Market mood and evolutionary adaption are characterized by fixed and adaptive switching fraction among two groups, respectively. Using local stability and bifurcation analysis, as well as numerical simulation, the role played by the key parameters in the market behaviour is examined. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the market fraction, determined by the fixed proportions of confident fundamentalists and trend followers, and by the proportion of adaptively rational agents, who adopt different strategies over time depending on realized profits

  1. Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim; Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    2015-01-01

    This book presents the works and research findings of physicists, economists, mathematicians, statisticians, and financial engineers who have undertaken data-driven modelling of market dynamics and other empirical studies in the field of Econophysics. During recent decades, the financial market landscape has changed dramatically with the deregulation of markets and the growing complexity of products. The ever-increasing speed and decreasing costs of computational power and networks have led to the emergence of huge databases. The availability of these data should permit the development of models that are better founded empirically, and econophysicists have accordingly been advocating that one should rely primarily on the empirical observations in order to construct models and validate them. The recent turmoil in financial markets and the 2008 crash appear to offer a strong rationale for new models and approaches. The Econophysics community accordingly has an important future role to play in market modelling....

  2. Correlation Dynamics in East Asian Financial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuper, Gerard; Lestano, L

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the dynamic relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes using daily data from January 3, 1994 - September 27, 2013 for six East Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. We estimate conditional correlations using

  3. Dynamics of the youth travel market on a global level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timea DEMETER

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The segment of young tourists has been considered a niche market and was treated as a branch of the tourism industry. In the past 10 years, however, its market value has began to increase significantly bringing real benefits to the companies adapting to this segment by developing appropriate strategies and policies. Therefore, the aim of this project is to analyse the dynamics of the youth travel market, on a global level, taking into consideration the international youth arrivals, youth accommodation units and the behavioural habits of young tourists, serving as a starting point in the strategy development process.

  4. Wealth dynamics in a sentiment-driven market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goykhman, Mikhail

    2017-12-01

    We study dynamics of a simulated world with stock and money, driven by the externally given processes which we refer to as sentiments. The considered sentiments influence the buy/sell stock trading attitude, the perceived price uncertainty, and the trading intensity of all or a part of the market participants. We study how the wealth of market participants evolves in time in such an environment. We discuss the opposite perspective in which the parameters of the sentiment processes can be inferred a posteriori from the observed market behavior.

  5. A dynamic marketing model with best reply and inertia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bischi, Gian Italo; Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we consider a nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Farris et al. (2005) as a market share attraction model with two firms that decide marketing efforts over time according to best reply strategies with naïve expectations. The model also considers an adaptive adjustment toward best reply, a form of inertia or anchoring attitude, and we investigate the effects of heterogeneities among firms. A rich scenario of local and global bifurcations is obtained even with just two competing firms, and a comparison is proposed with apparently similar duopoly models based on repeated best reply dynamics with naïve expectations and adaptive adjustment.

  6. System Dynamics Modeling of the Massachusetts SREC Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rickerson

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available As states across the country struggle to increase local development of renewable energy, policymakers are turning to innovative program designs to meet their renewable electricity targets. Massachusetts recently adopted a unique, auction-based price support mechanism for the solar portion of its renewable portfolio standard. During the program development process, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER used system dynamics to simulate potential solar renewable energy certificate market conditions under the proposed regulations. The modeling exercise resulted in several program design changes that will lead to a more stable certificate market. System dynamics can be a useful tool for developing and improving sustainability programs.

  7. Electricity market reforms: Institutional developments, investment dynamics and game modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineau, Pierre-Olivier

    The reform trend of the 1990's in electricity markets recreates, to some extent, the institutional framework from which they developed one century ago. Although these reforms do not endeavor to completely remove regulation, the basic objectives of deregulation dwell on limiting central and governmental control over the industry in order to promote free competition at all possible levels. To assess whether the electricity industry is or is not moving back to a 19th century structure is not the goal of this thesis. We will rather try to understand on what grounds deregulation reforms stand and review how different countries and large utilities have reacted to this trend. The special nature of electricity (non-storable basic good, centrally produced) creates different obstacles in the restructuring of electricity markets, compared to other industries like the airline or telecommunication ones. For example, the dominant positions of some utilities, the production structure and the importance of electricity in modern life could transform these reforms in a threatening move for consumers. Another specific issue arising from deregulation, now that national energy policy goals no longer rule the behavior of utilities, is how investment will be coordinated in the new market. A key element to keep in sight is the competition level targeted by these reforms. To which extent full competition can really occur in electricity markets remains an unanswered question. Indeed, the oligopolistic structure of the market could prevent such an outcome. An investigation of the investment dynamics in such a context seems therefore appropriate, and this will be an important theme of the thesis. This work offers an analysis of deregulated electricity markets and studies the oligopolistic market dynamics that could prevail in the new structure. Two complementary approaches are used for these purposes. The first is institutional and presents a thorough illustration of the economic arguments

  8. Assessing the Dynamic Behavior of Online Q&A Knowledge Markets: A System Dynamics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Mostafa; Hesamamiri, Roozbeh; Sadjadi, Jafar; Bourouni, Atieh

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose a holistic dynamic model for understanding the behavior of a complex and internet-based kind of knowledge market by considering both social and economic interactions. Design/methodology/approach: A system dynamics (SD) model is formulated in this study to investigate the dynamic characteristics of…

  9. ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET FACTORS AND REGIONAL PRICE DYNAMICS IN U.S. CATTLE MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Walburger, Allan M.; Foster, Kenneth A.

    1997-01-01

    Regional live cattle prices are decomposed into two components: (a) a trend common to all regional cattle price series and (b) regional deviations or price dynamics around that trend. Tests are developed to determine if market factors are related to the regional price deviations around a common trend. Slaughter volume, distance between a market and the next closest, and forward contract deliveries are significantly related to price deviations from the estimated common trend.

  10. North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Goodwin, Barry K.; Holt, Matthew T.; Prestemon, Jeffery P.

    2008-01-01

    Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board (OSB) markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-a-vis the law of one price. Weekly data, February 3rd, 1995 through October 9th, 2009, are used in the analysis. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important features of these markets; price...

  11. Information Exchange, Market Transparency and Dynamic Oligopoly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møllgaard, H. Peter; Overgaard, Per Baltzer

    Economic literature often offers conflicting views on the likely efficiency effects of information exchanges, communication between firms, and market transparency. On the one hand, it is argued that increased information dissemination improves firm planning to the benefit of society (including...... buyers) and allows potential buyers to make correct decisions given their preferences. On the other hand, economic literature also shows that increased information dissemination can raise prices through tacit or explicit collusion to the benefit of firms but at the expense of society at large....... This chapter provides a general analytical framework to reconcile these views and presents some basic conclusions for antitrust practice. In addition, the chapter reviews cases from both sides of the Atlantic where informational issues have played a significant role....

  12. Forecasting the Electricity Demand and Market Shares in Retail Electricity Market Based on System Dynamics and Markov Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Qingyou Yan; Chao Qin; Mingjian Nie; Le Yang

    2018-01-01

    Due to the deregulation of retail electricity market, consumers can choose retail electric suppliers freely, and market entities are facing fierce competition because of the increasing number of new entrants. Under these circumstances, forecasting the changes in all market entities, when market share stabilized, is important for suppliers making marketing decisions. In this paper, a market share forecasting model was established based on Markov chain, and a system dynamics model was construct...

  13. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  14. Outflow dynamics in modeling oligopoly markets: the case of the mobile telecommunications market in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał; Włoszczowska, Maja

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumer choice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level p \\in (0.3,0.4) . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment.

  15. Creating lift versus building the base : Current trends in marketing dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Bijmolt, T.H.A.; van Doorn, J.; Hanssens, D.M.; van Heerde, H.J.; Verhoef, P.C.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Markets are dynamic by nature; and marketing-efforts can be directed to stimulate, reduce, or to utilize these dynamics. The field of marketing dynamics aims at modeling the effects of marketing actions and policies on short-term performance ("lift") and on long-term performance ("base"). One of the

  16. Investigating the Nonlinear Dynamics of Emerging and Developed Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Guhathakurta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial time-series has been of interest of many statisticians and financial experts. Understanding the characteristic features of a financial-time series has posed some difficulties because of its quasi-periodic nature. Linear statistics can be applied to a periodic time series, but since financial time series is non-linear and non-stationary, analysis of its quasi periodic characteristics is not entirely possible with linear statistics. Thus, the study of financial series of stock market still remains a complex task having its specific requirements. In this paper keeping in mind the recent trends and developments in financial time series studies, we want to establish if there is any significant relationship existing between trading behavior of developing and developed markets. The study is conducted to draw conclusions on similarity or differences between developing economies, developed economies, developing-developed economy pairs. We take the leading stock market indices dataset for the past 15 years in those markets to conduct the study. First we have drawn probability distribution of the dataset to see if any graphical similarity exists. Then we perform quantitative techniques to test certain hypotheses. Then we proceed to implement the Ensemble Empirical Mode Distribution technique to draw out amplitude and phase of movement of index value each data set to compare at granular level of detail. Our findings lead us to conclude that the nonlinear dynamics of emerging markets and developed markets are not significantly different. This could mean that increasing cross market trading and involvement of global investment has resulted in narrowing the gap between emerging and developed markets. From nonlinear dynamics perspective we find no reason to distinguish markets into emerging and developed any more.

  17. ‘A Stone Within’: Visual Poetry & Wellbeing in the work of Alec Finlay and Thomas A. Clark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Tarbuck

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Thomas A. Clark is a poet and visual artist, born in Greenock in 1944. His work is characterized by its concentration on form, its attention to the materiality of language, and its focus on the natural world. His visually innovative poetry has been associated with a variety of movements and genres including the Concrete Poetry movement of the 1960s and, more recently, the resurgence in writing about the environment referred to as the New Nature Writing. In addition to publishing more traditional page poetry, Clark produces work in a wide variety of media – from folded paper forms to large-scale installations, sound works and prints. Additionally, Clark and his wife Laurie were among the first artists to open ‘artist run spaces’ in Britain, having run the Cairn Gallery since 1986. One poet regularly displayed in the Cairn Gallery is Alec Finlay (1966 –, whose work, like Clark’s, uses innovative form as a means through which to encounter the natural world. In particular, Finlay works with variations on sets of objects over time: nest-boxes, cloth tape, and botanic labels all make an appearance in his work, alongside neon and new technology.

  18. Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

  19. Immigration and urban housing market dynamics : the case of Haifa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Vlist, Arno J.; Czamanski, Daniel; Folmer, Henk

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses the interplay between demographics and housing market dynamics in Haifa, Israel. In the 1990s the city of Haifa, with a population of approximately 220,000, absorbed about 45,000 immigrants. The case of Haifa offers a typical non-controlled experiment on how demographic shocks

  20. Insurance brokers market dynamics in Poland before deregulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarosław Krajewski

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article focus on insurance broker profession in connection with second part of professions deregulations. It briefly presents modifications in polish law in this domain. Next part concerns the insurance brokers market dynamics analysis. The results shows permanent increase in brokers quantity in spite of existing regulations. Presented paper makes start point to following analysis.

  1. Linking Financial Market Dynamics and the Impact of News

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacher, J. C.; Ochiai, T.

    2011-09-01

    In financial markets, he behavior of investors determines the prices of financial products. However, these investors can also be influenced by good and bad news. Here, we present a mathematical model to reproduce the price dynamics in real financial markets affected by news. The model has both positive and negative feed-back mechanisms. Furthermore, the behavior of the model is examined by considering two different types of noise. Our results show that the dynamic balance of positive and negative feed-back mechanisms with the noise effect determines the asset price movement. For comparison with real market, we have used the Forex data corresponding to the time period of the recent Tohoku-Kanto earthquake in Japan.

  2. Dynamics of Correlation Structure in Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maman Abdurachman Djauhari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a correction factor for Jennrich’s statistic is introduced in order to be able not only to test the stability of correlation structure, but also to identify the time windows where the instability occurs. If Jennrich’s statistic is only to test the stability of correlation structure along predetermined non-overlapping time windows, the corrected statistic provides us with the history of correlation structure dynamics from time window to time window. A graphical representation will be provided to visualize that history. This information is necessary to make further analysis about, for example, the change of topological properties of minimal spanning tree. An example using NYSE data will illustrate its advantages.

  3. Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective-Evidence from China and the US futures markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Rui-Lin; Wang, Dong-Hua; Tu, Jing-Qing; Li, Sai-Ping

    2016-12-01

    Emerging as the earliest futures markets, agricultural futures markets play an important role in risk aversion and price discovery. With the integration of global economy, the linkage between domestic and international futures markets becomes closer than ever. By using the thermal optimal path (TOP) method, this paper selects soybean, corn and wheat as the representatives to study the dynamic lead-lag relationship between the Chinese and American markets in both returns and volatility. The results indicate that: (1) For the futures return, different kinds of agricultural futures lead-lag relationship between China and the US varied before 2014 both in direction and order in different time periods. However, China leads the US for all the three kinds we study after 2014. (2) Agricultural commodities subject to less import restrictions and government regulations in China such as soybean are more susceptible to the fluctuations from the international markets. On the other hand, lower foreign trade openness and more government regulation species such as wheat are less affected by fluctuations from outside. (3) The volatility transmission from the US to China wheat futures market takes longer time than soybean, which suggests that China's soybean futures market is more closely linked to the international agricultural futures market than wheat.

  4. Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

  5. Continuous Trading Dynamically Effectively Complete Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Zhenjiang

    on the heterogeneous posterior variance of dividend throughout [0; T). The market populated with many time-additive exponential-utility investors is dynamically effectively complete, if investors are allowed to trade in only two long-lived securities continuously. The underlying mechanism is that these assumptions...... imply that the Pareto efficient individual consumption plans are measurable with respect to the aggregate consumption. Hence, I may not need a dynamically complete market to facilitate a Pareto efficient allocation of consumption, the securities only have to facilitate an allocation which is measurable...... a sufficient statistic for computation of the price of redundant dividend derivative and the equilibrium portfolios. The investors form their Pareto optimal trading strategies as if they intend to dynamically endogenously replicate the value of the dividend derivative....

  6. Stability of power systems coupled with market dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jianping

    This Ph.D. thesis presented here spans two relatively independent topics. The first part, Chapter 2 is self-contained, and is dedicated to studies of new algorithms for power system state estimation. The second part, encompassing the remaining chapters, is dedicated to stability analysis of power system coupled with market dynamics. The first part of this thesis presents improved Newton's methods employing efficient vectorized calculations of higher order derivatives in power system state estimation problems. The improved algorithms are proposed based on an exact Newton's method using the second order terms. By efficiently computing an exact gain matrix, combined with a special optimal multiplier method, the new algorithms show more reliable convergence compared with the existing methods of normal equations, orthogonal decomposition, and Hachtel's sparse tableau. Our methods are able to handle ill-conditioned problems, yet show minimal penalty in computational cost for well-conditioned cases. These claims are illustrated through the standard IEEE 118 and 300 bus test examples. The second part of the thesis focuses on stability analysis of market/power systems. The work presented is motivated by an emerging problem. As the frequency of market based dispatch updates increases, there will inevitably be interaction between the dynamics of markets determining the generator dispatch commands, and the physical response of generators and network interconnections, necessitating the development of stability analysis for such coupled systems. We begin with numeric tests using different market models, with detailed machine/exciter/turbine/governor dynamics, in the New England 39 bus test system. A progression of modeling refinements are introduced, including such non-ideal effects as time delays. Electricity market parameter identification algorithms are also studied based on real time data from the PJM electricity market. Finally our power market model is augmented by optimal

  7. North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry Goodwin; Matthew Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2011-01-01

    Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-à-vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time-varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important...

  8. A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Nazos, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Stochastic MILP model for the optimal energy planning of a power system. •Power market dynamics (offers/bids) are incorporated in the proposed model. •Monte Carlo method for capturing the uncertainty of some key parameters. •Analytical supply cost composition per power producer and activity. •Clean dark and spark spreads are calculated for each power unit. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.

  9. Dynamic pricing for demand response considering market price uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Retail energy providers (REPs) can employ different strategies such as offering demand response (DR) programs, participating in bilateral contracts, and employing self-generation distributed generation (DG) units to avoid financial losses in the volatile electricity markets. In this paper......, the problem of setting dynamic retail sales price by a REP is addressed with a robust optimization technique. In the proposed model, the REP offers price-based DR programs while it faces uncertainties in the wholesale market price. The main contribution of this paper is using a robust optimization approach...

  10. Dynamic Interaction between Cap & Trade and Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeev, Kumar

    Greenhouse Gases (GHG), such as Carbon-Dioxide (CO2), which is released in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activities like power production, are now accepted as the main culprits for global warming. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an initiative of the North East and Mid-Atlantic States of the United States (US) for limiting the emission of GHG, has developed a regional cap-and-trade program for CO2 emissions for power plants. Existing cap-and-trade programs in US and Europe for Greenhouse Gases have recently been plagued by over-allocation. Carbon prices recently collapsed in all these markets during the global recession. Since then, there have been significant policy changes, which have resulted in the adoption of aggressive emission cap targets by most major carbon emission markets. This is expected to make carbon emissions availability more restrictive, raising the prices of these credits. These emissions markets are expected to have a major impact on the wholesale electricity markets. Two models to study the interaction of these two markets are presented. These models assess the impact of the emissions market on wholesale electricity prices. The first model characterizes the competition between two types of power plants (coal and gas) in both the electricity and emissions markets as a dynamic game using the Cournot approximation. Under this approximation, we find that in the Nash equilibrium the plants increase their permit allocation to high-demand periods and the marginal value of each credit for a plant is identical in all periods under their optimal equilibrium strategy. The second numerical model allows us to explicitly evaluate the closed loop equilibrium of the dynamic interaction of two competitors in these markets. We find that plants often try to corner the market and push prices all the way to the price cap. Power plants derive most of their profits from these extreme price regimes. In the experiments where trading is allowed

  11. Poverty, Job Quality and Labor Market Dynamics in the Middle East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Poverty, Job Quality and Labor Market Dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa ... This project will explore links between labour market dynamics and the quality ... public health, and health systems research relevant to the emerging crisis.

  12. AN AUTOPSY OF THE SOUTH KOREAN MARKET: DYNAMICS AND CONTRADICTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Il Lee

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The most dynamic feature of the South Korean economy in the late 20th century is the emergence of the country as a major destination for foreign investors. However, because the market has been closed to outsiders, for almost two decades, except for certain industries, Korea is as yet an unknown entity among the global business community. This acts as a deterrent to market entry. It is evident that among the economic and business literature there has been limited emphasis on the cultural and other complications such as the position and influence of the chaebol (a group of mostly family owned conglomerates in Korea that exists for foreign businesses in the Republic of Korea. This paper attempts to crystallize some of the key cultural issues, examine their relevance and highlight some consequences of the lack of understanding of these cultural issues for the world's leading multinational corporations wishing to enter the Korean market.

  13. The Dynamics of Market Insurance, Insurable Assets, and Wealth Accumulation

    OpenAIRE

    Koeniger, Winfried

    2002-01-01

    We analyze dynamic interactions between market insurance, the stock of insurable assets and liquid wealth accumulation in a model with non-durable and durable consumption. The stock of the durable is exposed to risk against which households can insure. Since the model does not have a closed form solution we first provide an analytical approximation for the case in which households own abundant liquid wealth. It turns out that precautionary motives still matter because of fluctuations of the p...

  14. Dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Bin; Nie, He; Jiang, Yonghong

    2018-02-01

    This paper aims to examine the dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market. The analysis also delves more deeply into the effect of the global financial crisis on the short-term relationship. We use fractional cointegration to analyze the long-term memory feature of these volatility processes to investigate whether they are tied through a common long-term equilibrium. The DCC-MGARCH model is employed to investigate the time-varying long-term linkages among these markets. The Krystou-Labys non-linear asymmetric Granger causality method is used to examine the effect of the financial crisis. We find that (i) there is clearly a long-term dependence among these markets; (ii) the dynamic gold-oil relationship is always positive and the oil-dollar relationship is always negative; and (iii) after the crisis, we can observe evidence of a positive non-linear causal relationship from gold to US dollar and US dollar to crude oil, and a negative non-linear causal relationship from US dollar to gold. Investors who want to construct their optimal portfolios and policymakers who aim to make effective macroeconomic policies should take these findings into account.

  15. Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowcliffe, M.; Cowlishaw, G.; Alexander, J. S.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Brenya, A.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

    2016-01-01

    The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management. PMID:27632169

  16. Dynamic asset trees in the US stock market: Structure variation and market phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Yao, Shuang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yuan, Ying

    2017-01-01

    In this work, employing a moving window to scan through every stock price time series over a period from 2 January 1986 to 20 October 2015, we use cross-correlations to measure the interdependence between stock prices, and we construct a corresponding minimal spanning tree for 170 U.S. stocks in every given window. We show how the asset tree evolves over time and describe the dynamics of its normalized length, centrality measures, vertex degree and vertex strength distributions, and single- and multiple-step edge survival ratios. We find that the normalized tree length shows a tendency to decrease over the 30 years. The power-law of vertex degree or vertex strength distribution does not hold for all trees. The survival ratio analysis reveals an increased stability of the dependence structure of the stock market as time elapses. We then examine the relationship between tree structure variation and market phenomena, such as average, volatility and tail risk of stock (market) return. Our main observation is that the normalized tree length has a positive relationship with the level of stock market average return, and it responds negatively to the market return volatility and tail risk. Furthermore, the majority of stocks have their vertex degrees significantly positively correlated to their average return, and significantly negatively correlated to their return volatility and tail risk.

  17. Dynamic Pricing of New Products in Competitive Markets: A Mean-Field Game Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Chenavaz, Régis; Paraschiv, Corina; Turinici, Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic pricing of new products has been extensively studied in monopolistic and oligopolistic markets. But, the optimal control and differential game tools used to investigate the pricing behavior on markets with a finite number of firms are not well-suited to model competitive markets with an infinity of firms. Using a mean-field games approach, this paper examines dynamic pricing policies in competitive markets, where no firm exerts market power. The theoretical setting is based on a diffu...

  18. Dynamics of a durable commodity market involving trade at disequilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchuk, A.; Puu, T.

    2018-05-01

    The present work considers a simple model of a durable commodity market involving two agents who trade stocks of two different types. Stock commodities, in contrast to flow commodities, remain on the market from period to period and, consequently, there is neither unique demand function nor unique supply function exists. We also set up exact conditions for trade at disequilibrium, the issue being usually neglected, though a fact of reality. The induced iterative system has infinite number of fixed points and path dependent dynamics. We show that a typical orbit is either attracted to one of the fixed points or eventually sticks at a no-trade point. For the latter the stock distribution always remains the same while the price displays periodic or chaotic oscillations.

  19. Interpreting the empirical evidence on illegal gun market dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Anthony A; Wintemute, Garen J; Pierce, Glenn L; Cook, Philip J; Ridgeway, Greg

    2012-10-01

    Thousands of Americans are killed by gunfire each year, and hundreds of thousands more are injured or threatened with guns in robberies and assaults. The burden of gun violence in urban areas is particularly high. Critics suggest that the results of firearm trace data and gun trafficking investigation studies cannot be used to understand the illegal supply of guns to criminals and, therefore, that regulatory and enforcement efforts designed to disrupt illegal firearms markets are futile in addressing criminal access to firearms. In this paper, we present new data to address three key arguments used by skeptics to undermine research on illegal gun market dynamics. We find that criminals rely upon a diverse set of illegal diversion pathways to acquire guns, gun traffickers usually divert small numbers of guns, newer guns are diverted through close-to-retail diversions from legal firearms commerce, and that a diverse set of gun trafficking indicators are needed to identify and shut down gun trafficking pathways.

  20. Optimal dispatch in dynamic security constrained open power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, S.N.; David, A.K.

    2002-01-01

    Power system security is a new concern in the competitive power market operation, because the integration of the system controller and the generation owner has been broken. This paper presents an approach for dynamic security constrained optimal dispatch in restructured power market environment. The transient energy margin using transient energy function (TEF) approach has been used to calculate the stability margin of the system and a hybrid method is applied to calculate the approximate unstable equilibrium point (UEP) that is used to calculate the exact UEP and thus, the energy margin using TEF. The case study results illustrated on two systems shows that the operating mechanisms are compatible with the new business environment. (author)

  1. The Analysis of the Dynamics of the Marketing Services Market in Terms of Strategic Management of Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanova Natalya

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study is to determine the basic modern marketing services according to the dynamics data of the media market of Ukraine. Thus, marketing services are considered as tools that provide crisis man-agement in strategic business development perspective. Scientific and practical significance of the study lies in the results of trend analysis of the dynamics of the media market of Ukraine and its components, the results of which led to the conclusion about the importance of Internet advertising as a modern marketing tool in terms of anti-crisis policy. The study predicted the values of the obtained volumes and market share of Internet advertising in the media market structure in Ukraine for the next period.

  2. Price dynamics in the market for Liquid Petroleum Gas transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adland, Roar; Jia Haiying; Lu Jing

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of the spot freight rate in the Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) shipping market. The spot freight rate process is nonparametrically specified so that the model allows for maximal flexibility in fitting the data. The model is estimated using data for the Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) sector and the estimation results are compared to those of crude oil tankers available in the literature. The empirical results suggest that the LPG spot freight rate can be appropriately described by a simple linear stochastic model and does not exhibit the non-linearity found in other bulk shipping sectors

  3. Dynamics of a Protected Housing Market: The Case of Switzerland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borowiecki, Karol

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the determinants and dynamics of a highly protected housing market. Based on Swiss data for the time period 1990 to 2009 we model house prices and construction activity. We find that house prices exhibit a positive association with construction price, working age population as well...... as GDP and a negative with interest rates, whereas construction activity is positively related to working age population and GDP and negatively with construction price and interest rates. These estimates are broadly consistent with previous theoretical and empirical research....

  4. Can Big Data Help Predict Financial Market Dynamics?: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Jin Pyo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency prevail during the sample period. Meanwhile, the search frequency has a negative association with the one-week- ahead stock return but not vice versa. In addition to identifying dynamic correlations, the paper also aims to serve as a test bed in which the existence of profitable trading strategies based on big data is explored. Specifically, the strategy interpreting the heightened investor attention as a negative signal for future returns appears to have been superior to the benchmark strategy in terms of the expected utility over wealth. This paper also demonstrates that the big data-based option trading strategy might be able to beat the market under certain conditions. These results highlight the possibility of big data as a potential source-which has been left largely untapped-for establishing profitable trading strategies as well as developing insights on stock market dynamics.

  5. Nonlinear analysis and dynamic structure in the energy market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghababa, Hajar

    This research assesses the dynamic structure of the energy sector of the aggregate economy in the context of nonlinear mechanisms. Earlier studies have focused mainly on the price of the energy products when detecting nonlinearities in time series data of the energy market, and there is little mention of the production side of the market. Moreover, there is a lack of exploration about the implication of high dimensionality and time aggregation when analyzing the market's fundamentals. This research will address these gaps by including the quantity side of the market in addition to the price and by systematically incorporating various frequencies for sample sizes in three essays. The goal of this research is to provide an inclusive and exhaustive examination of the dynamics in the energy markets. The first essay begins with the application of statistical techniques, and it incorporates the most well-known univariate tests for nonlinearity with distinct power functions over alternatives and tests different null hypotheses. It utilizes the daily spot price observations on five major products in the energy market. The results suggest that the time series daily spot prices of the energy products are highly nonlinear in their nature. They demonstrate apparent evidence of general nonlinear serial dependence in each individual series, as well as nonlinearity in the first, second, and third moments of the series. The second essay examines the underlying mechanism of crude oil production and identifies the nonlinear structure of the production market by utilizing various monthly time series observations of crude oil production: the U.S. field, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), non-OPEC, and the world production of crude oil. The finding implies that the time series data of the U.S. field, OPEC, and the world production of crude oil exhibit deep nonlinearity in their structure and are generated by nonlinear mechanisms. However, the dynamics of the non

  6. Heterarcical market: Dynamical interplay between time and space in the continuous interaction in a market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, Kazuto; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio; Kinoshita, Tetsuo

    2017-07-01

    Multi-agent models of robust open systems such as natural systems are the important theme in the literature of systems science. Heterarchy, which means dynamical hierarchy, is a structural model, which includes the dynamical interplay between different levels. However, it is not easy to build a formal model of a heterarchical system because the interplay between different levels lead a self-referential paradox. In this paper, we propose an continuous double auction model, which includes a formal model of conitnuous transaction. We encode the model into a restriction rule of the order submittion. The proposed model shows a critical behavior of the actual markets, and it can have the relationship with the behaviors of natural systems.

  7. Price and inventory dynamics in petroleum product markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, T.J.; Heo, Eunnyeong

    2000-01-01

    Unlike many studies of commodity inventory behavior, this paper estimates a model with endogenous spot and forward prices, inventories, production, and net imports. Our application involves markets for refined petroleum products in the United States. Our model is built around the supply and demand for storage. We estimate the model using Generalized Method of Moments and perform dynamic, simultaneous simulations to estimate the impacts of supply and demand shocks. Supply curves for the industry are inelastic and upward sloping. High inventory levels depress prices. Inventories fall in response to higher sales, consistent with production smoothing. Under higher input prices, refiners reduce their stocks of crude oil but increase their product inventories, consistent with cost smoothing. In some cases, imports of products are more variable than production or inventories. 25 refs

  8. A consensus-based dynamics for market volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabatelli, Lorenzo; Richmond, Peter

    2004-12-01

    We develop a model of trading orders based on opinion dynamics. The agents may be thought as the share holders of a major mutual fund rather than as direct traders. The balance between their buy and sell orders determines the size of the fund order (volume) and has an impact on prices and indexes. We assume agents interact simultaneously to each other through a Sznajd-like interaction. Their degree of connection is determined by the probability of changing opinion independently of what their neighbours are doing. We assume that such a probability may change randomly, after each transaction, of an amount proportional to the relative difference between the volatility then measured and a benchmark that we assume to be an exponential moving average of the past volume values. We show how this simple model is compatible with some of the main statistical features observed for the asset volumes in financial markets.

  9. Multiproduct Multiperiod Newsvendor Problem with Dynamic Market Efforts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianmai Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a multiperiod multiproduct production planning problem where the production capacity and the marketing effort on demand are both considered. The accumulative impact of marketing effort on demand is captured by the Nerlove and Arrow (N-A advertising model. The problem is formulated as a discrete-time, finite-horizon dynamic optimization problem, which can be viewed as an extension to the classic newsvendor problem by integrating with the N-A model. A Lagrangian relaxation based solution approach is developed to solve the problem, in which the subgradient algorithm is used to find an upper bound of the solution and a feasibility heuristic algorithm is proposed to search for a feasible lower bound. Twelve kinds of instances with different problem size involving up to 50 products and 15 planning periods are randomly generated and used to test the Lagrangian heuristic algorithm. Computational results show that the proposed approach can obtain near optimal solutions for all the instances in very short CPU time, which is less than 90 seconds even for the largest instance.

  10. Offering memorable patient experience through creative, dynamic marketing strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raţiu, M; Purcărea, T

    2008-01-01

    Creative, dynamic strategies are the ones that identify new and better ways of uniquely offering the target customers what they want or need. A business can achieve competitive advantage if it chooses a marketing strategy that sets the business apart from anyone else. Healthcare services companies have to understand that the customer should be placed in the centre of all specific marketing operations. The brand message should reflect the focus on the patient. Healthcare products and services offered must represent exactly the solutions that customers expect. The touchpoints with the patients must be well mastered in order to convince them to accept the proposed solutions. Healthcare service providers must be capable to look beyond customer's behaviour or product and healthcare service aquisition. This will demand proactive and far–reaching changes, including focusing specifically on customer preference, quality, and technological interfaces; rewiring strategy to find new value from existing and unfamiliar sources; disintegrating and radically reassembling operational processes; and restructuring the organization to accommodate new typess of work and skill. PMID:20108466

  11. Dynamics of heating oil market prices in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indjehagopian, J.P.; Lantz, F.; Simon, V.

    2000-01-01

    This paper concerns the German and French heating oil market and attempts to establish long- and short-term relationships between German and French monthly heating oil prices in dollars, the Rotterdam spot price for the same product and the DM/US$ and FF/US$ exchange rates during the period from January 1987 to December 1997. To model the market over the period under consideration, incorporating the Gulf War, we have used conventional unit root tests and sequential tests allowing structural changes. Long-term relationships, with shifts in regime detected by cointegration tests taking structural breaks into consideration, are estimated. The short-term dynamics defined by a vector error correction (VEC) mechanism is derived in a classic manner when in presence of a cointegrated VAR system. The econometric results obtained are commented on from an economic point of view. Weak exogeneity tests are performed and the conditional VEC model is deduced, enabling measurement of the instantaneous impact of variations in weakly exogenous exchange rates on variations in heating oil prices in Germany and France. Lastly, a study is made of the asymmetric reaction of domestic prices to positive and negative variations in exchange rates and the Rotterdam spot quotation. 25 refs

  12. Offering memorable patient experience through creative, dynamic marketing strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcărea, Victor Lorín; Raţíu, Monica; Purcărea, Theodor; Davila, Carol

    2008-01-01

    Creative, dynamic strategies are the ones that identify new and better ways of uniquely offering the target customers what they want or need. A business can achieve competitive advantage if it chooses a marketing strategy that sets the business apart from anyone else. Healthcare services companies have to understand that the customer should be placed in the centre of all specific marketing operations. The brand message should reflect the focus on the patient. Healthcare products and services offered must represent exactly the solutions that customers expect. The touchpoints with the patients must be well mastered in order to convince them to accept the proposed solutions. Healthcare service providers must be capable to look beyond customer's behaviour or product and healthcare service aquisition. This will demand proactive and far-reaching changes, including focusing specifically on customer preference, quality, and technological interfaces; rewiring strategy to find new value from existing and unfamiliar sources: disintegrating and radically reassembling operational processes: and restructuring the organization to accommodate new types of work and skill.

  13. Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among 11 U.S. spot market electricity prices are examined. Results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame. In contemporaneous time, the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time frames these separations disappear, even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited. It appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets (such as transmissions lines among markets), but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets. (Author)

  14. Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence : An application to Thailand and Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuper, Gerard H.; Lestano, [No Value

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the dynamic linkages among financial markets in Thailand and Indonesia. In particular, we focus on the cross-border relationship in individual markets and on the relationship between finan- cial markets within each country. We find that while tight monetary policy pursued by

  15. a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.

    As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.

  16. Stock Market Autoregressive Dynamics: A Multinational Comparative Study with Quantile Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the nonlinear autoregressive dynamics of stock index returns in seven major advanced economies (G7 and China. The quantile autoregression model (QAR enables us to investigate the autocorrelation across the whole spectrum of return distribution, which provides more insightful conditional information on multinational stock market dynamics than conventional time series models. The relation between index return and contemporaneous trading volume is also investigated. While prior studies have mixed results on stock market autocorrelations, we find that the dynamics is usually state dependent. The results for G7 stock markets exhibit conspicuous similarities, but they are in manifest contrast to the findings on Chinese stock markets.

  17. Market dynamics as a driver towards the evolution of research needs

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Market dynamics offer positive (incentive) or negative (disincentive) feedback loops that shape the research needs for, or certain aspects of, a particular technology. Our case study results illustrate how market dynamics have influenced the evolution of research needs in the wastewater treatment sector, with specific ...

  18. A Market Dynamics Model for New Industrial Products and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Shmuel S. Oren; Michael H. Rothkopf

    1984-01-01

    New product planning models attempt to predict the market consequences of product line and product design decisions. One output of such models, especially those driven by subjective or market research data, is usually theoretical market shares based upon consumer preferences under idealized conditions. This paper describes a class of models that bridge the gap between such theoretical market shares and dynamic sales forecasts. This model accounts for differences in customer awareness of diffe...

  19. The relationship between hospital and ehr vendor market dynamics on health information organization presence and participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Sunny C; Adler-Milstein, Julia

    2018-05-08

    Health Information Organizations (HIOs) are third party organizations that facilitate electronic health information exchange (HIE) between providers in a geographic area. Despite benefits from HIE, HIOs have struggled to form and subsequently gain broad provider participation. We sought to assess whether market-level hospital and EHR vendor dynamics are associated with presence and level of hospital participation in HIOs. 2014 data on 4523 hospitals and their EHR vendors were aggregated to the market level. We used multivariate OLS regression to analyze the relationship between hospital and vendor dynamics and (1) probability of HIO presence and (2) percent of hospitals participating in an HIO. 298 of 469 markets (64%) had HIO presence, and in those markets, 47% of hospitals participated in an HIO on average. In multivariate analysis, four characteristics were associated with HIO presence. Markets with more hospitals, markets with more EHR vendors, and markets with an EHR vendor-led HIE approach were more likely to have an HIO. Compared to markets with low hospital competition, markets with high hospital competition had a 25 percentage point lower probability of HIO presence. Two characteristics were associated with level of hospital HIO participation. Markets with more hospitals as well as markets with high vendor competition (compared to low competition) had lower participation. Both hospital and EHR vendor dynamics are associated with whether a market has an HIO as well as the level of hospital participation in HIOs.

  20. Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. García-Hiernaux (Alfredo); D.E. Guerrero (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes the market integration process of nominal prices, develops a model to analyze market integration, and presents a test of increasing market integration. A distinction is made between the economic concepts of price conver- gence in mean and variance. When both types of

  1. Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. García-Hiernaux (Alfredo); D.E. Guerrero (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we analyse the market integration process of the relative price distribution, develop a model to analyze market integration, and present a formal test of increasing market integration. We distinguish between the economic concepts of price convergence in mean and in

  2. Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masih, Mansur; Algahtani, Ibrahim; De Mello, Lurion

    2010-01-01

    This paper is the first attempt to investigate: (1) is the crude oil (WTI) price significantly related to the regional ethylene prices in the Naphtha intensive ethylene markets of the Far East, North West Europe, and the Mediterranean? (2) What drives the regional ethylene prices? The paper is motivated by the recent and growing debate on the lead-lag relationship between crude oil and ethylene prices. Our findings, based on the long-run structural modelling approach of Pesaran and Shin, and subject to the limitations of the study, tend to suggest: (1) crude oil (WTI) price is cointegrated with the regional ethylene prices (2) our within-sample error-correction model results tend to indicate that although the ethylene prices in North West Europe and the Mediterranean were weakly endogenous, the Far East ethylene price was weakly exogenous both in the short and long term. These results are consistent, during most of the period under review (2000.1-2006.4) with the surge in demand for ethylene throughout the Far East, particularly in China and South Korea. However, during the post-sample forecast period as evidenced in our variance decompositions analysis, the emergence of WTI as a leading player as well, is consistent with the recent surge in WTI price (fuelled mainly, among others, by the strong hedging activities in the WTI futures/options and refining tightness) reflecting the growing importance of input cost in determining the dynamic interactions of input and product prices. (author)

  3. The Dynamics in the Structure of Sugarcane Job Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roselis Natalina Mazzuchetti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Esta pesquisa teve como propósito averiguar a estrutura do mercado de trabalho na atividade de cultivo de cana-de-açúcar, à luz das mudanças recentes ocorridas no setor sucroalcooleiro, levando-se em conta os principais estados produtores de cana. Para tanto, realizou-se uma análise estatística descritiva e uma análise de regressão linear simples, com base nos dados da PNAD, de 1997 a 2009. Como corolário, constatou-se que houve uma redução da informalidade no mercado de trabalho em questão, sendo que esta redução foi mais expressiva em Alagoas. Confirmou-se, também, mudanças recentes nas ocupações do setor, com acréscimos nas atividades técnicas, representadas por tratoristas e operadores de máquinas. Evidenciou-se que o mercado de trabalho do setor em questão tem sua dinâmica diretamente ligada aos fatores que ocorrem na cadeia produtiva do setor sucroalcooleiro como um todo. Palavras-Chave: Mercado de Trabalho, Tecnologia, Agronegócios e Produção de cana-de-açúcar. *** Abstract: This research aims to verify the structure of sugarcane cultivation’s job market, considering the recent changes in this sector and the states with the major production. For that, descriptive and statistical analysis were made, as well as a simplified line regression analysis, based on the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD data, for the 1997-2009 period. As corollary, it was stated that there was a reduction in the informal jobs in the sugarcane production market, showing more expressivity in the state of Alagoas. Recent changes in the sector occupation were confirmed, as an increase in technical activities, represented by tractors and machinery operators. It was evidenced that this sector’s job market has its dynamics closely linked to the sugarcane production chain as a whole. Keywords: Job Market, Agribusiness, Technology, Sugarcane production. *** Sumario: Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo investigar la

  4. THE DYNAMICS OF THE TEXTILE MARKET. ANALYTICAL REFERENCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliona CERNOVA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available During the transition to a market economy, the state of many countries’ economies and the international textile industry face considerable challenges. There are many uncertainties surrounding the global textile market, exacerbated by gloomy predictions that for a decade should have been eliminated, resulting in “free” trade flows. There is no doubt that manufacturers which have created niche markets will be better positioned to compete in the global marketplace and achieve higher margins for products while yielding greater profitability. This paper is an introduction of a reasearch that examines how some textile market niches have evolved. The goal of this paper is research and the role that textile niche markets will play by 2025. Specific objectives are: to give a broad overview of various trade theories, including classical, neo-classical, post-neo-classical, and modern, in order to determine what are the possibilities for development and protection. In particular, emphasis will be focused the special problems, due to the vector exchanges and commercial conjuncture, to illustrate how traditional marketing methods differ from market to market and to examine what role will play niche markets in the textiles industry and textile apparel industry in 2050. The results of this research study will help formulate a business strategy that can be used in market capitalization and will provide a framework for research for textile researchers at a global level.

  5. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  6. The grounds for time dependent market potentials from dealers' dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, K.; Takayasu, H.; Takayasu, M.

    2008-06-01

    We apply the potential force estimation method to artificial time series of market price produced by a deterministic dealer model. We find that dealers’ feedback of linear prediction of market price based on the latest mean price changes plays the central role in the market’s potential force. When markets are dominated by dealers with positive feedback the resulting potential force is repulsive, while the effect of negative feedback enhances the attractive potential force.

  7. Dynamics of the Asia-Pacific oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, N.D.

    1996-01-01

    The Asia-Pacific could become the world's largest oil market with an estimated 10 million b/d new demand by 2010. At the same time less Asian crude will be available for the world market. Refinery expansion is likely to be insufficient and imports of refined products will rise. The Asia-Pacific market could be the world's largest middle distillate importer and a major centre of trade for essentially every other petroleum product and form of commercial energy. (Author)

  8. Price dynamics of natural gas and the regional methanol markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masih, A. Mansur M.; Albinali, Khaled; DeMello, Lurion

    2010-01-01

    A 'methanol economy' based mainly on natural gas as a feedstock has a lot of potential to cope with the current and ongoing concerns for energy security along with the reduction of CO-2 emissions. It is, therefore, important to examine the price dynamics of methanol in order to ascertain whether the price of methanol is mainly natural-gas-cost driven or demand driven in the context of different regions. This paper is the first attempt to investigate the following: (1) is the natural gas price significantly related to the regional methanol prices in the Far East, United States and Europe? (2) who drives the regional methanol prices? The paper is motivated by the recent and growing debate on the lead-lag relationship between natural gas and methanol prices. Our findings, based on the most recently developed 'long-run structural modelling' and subject to the limitations of the study, tend to suggest: (1) natural gas price is cointegrated with the regional methanol prices, (2) our within-sample error-correction model results tend to indicate that natural gas was driving the methanol prices in Europe and the United States but not in the Far East. These results are consistent, during most of the period under review (1998.5-2007.3), with the surge in demand for methanol throughout the Far East, particularly in China, Taiwan and South Korea, which appears to have played a relatively more dominant role in the Far East compared to that in Europe and the United States within the framework of the dynamic interactions of input and product prices. However, during the post-sample forecast period as evidenced in our variance decompositions analysis, the emergence of natural gas as the main driver of methanol prices in all three continents is consistent with the recent surge in natural gas price fueled mainly, among others, by the strong hedging activities in the natural gas futures/options as well as refining tightness (similar to those that were happening in the crude oil markets

  9. Dynamics of Investment for Market-Oriented Farmers in Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reyes, A.; Kuyvenhoven, A.; Lensink, R.; Moll, H.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    Using panel data from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2008 of 177 market-oriented farmers in central Chile, we investigate investment under imperfect capital markets. Specifically we determine the impact of formal credit constraints on fixed investment. By controlling for endogeneity problems, we

  10. The Dynamics of "Market-Making" in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komljenovic, Janja; Robertson, Susan L.

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines what to some is a well-worked furrow; the processes and outcomes involved in what is typically referred to as "marketization" in the higher education sector. We do this through a case study of Newton University, where we reveal a rapid proliferation of market exchanges involving the administrative division of the…

  11. Pooling data for the analysis of dynamic marketing systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horvath, C.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become popular in marketing literature for analyzing the behavior of competitive marketing systems. One drawback of these models is that the number of parameters can become very large, potentially leading to estimation problems. Pooling data for multiple

  12. Collective farmers marketing inititatives, Diversity, Contextuality and Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renting, H.; Schermer, M.; Oostindië, H.A.

    2011-01-01

    Collective action by farmers has played an important role in the history of European agriculture. During the twentieth century, the foundation of agricultural marketing co-operatives contributed in many countries to better market access, increased farm incomes and rural employment. However, European

  13. Dynamical agents' strategies and the fractal market hypothesis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vácha, Lukáš; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2005), s. 172-179 ISSN 1210-0455 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 454/2004/A EK/FSV Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : efficient market hypothesis * fractal market hypothesis * agent's investment horizons Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  14. Competitive Dynamics of Market Entry: Scale and Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W. UPSON

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Market entry is the essence of strategy and is largely viewed as a dichotomous event: entry or no entry. What has not been acknowledged is the uniqueness of each market entry. Our study highlights the scale of market entry in the context of multipoint competition. We assert that entry scale varies based on the risk of market incumbent retaliation. Theory suggests that when risk associated with retaliation are low, firms enter with large scale and when associated risks are high, firms enter with low scale. Further, survival is viewed as dependent on following theory. We argue and find supporting evidence that firms behave in the opposite manner and do so to their own benefit, thereby revealing a unique discrepancy between theory and practice among 75 product market entries by 27 firms.

  15. A dynamic replicator model of the players' bids in an oligopolistic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the replicator dynamics of the power suppliers' bids in an oligopolistic electricity market are derived for both the fixed and variable demand cases. The replicator dynamics stability analysis is also performed. The dynamics of the electricity markets are the results of players' decisions. The physical parameters of the power systems (such as the lines capacities, voltage limitations, etc.) also affect the market dynamics indirectly, through the changes in players' behaviors. Assuming rational players, an optimal bidding strategy for constructing the supply function (SF) of a generating firm is presented and based on that, the dynamics of the bid replicators are studied. Both fixed demands and price sensitive demands are taken into account. The replicator model is presented in the well-known state space structure. A case study is presented to show the applicability of the developed dynamic replicator bid model, and also to show how the Nash-SFE equilibrium evolves over time. (author)

  16. Canadian natural gas market dynamics and pricing : an update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-10-01

    This energy market assessment (EMA) report discusses natural gas price formation and describes the current functioning of regional gas markets in Canada. This EMA also describes the factors affecting the price of natural gas in Canada and examines natural gas markets on a region-by region basis. It is shown that as part of an integrated North American market, prices of natural gas in Canada reflect supply and demand factors in both Canada and the United States. During the low oil price period of 1997/1998, high demand for natural gas outpaced the supply because of low drilling and production activity by producers. In response to the increased demand and lower levels of supply, the price of natural gas increased significantly in 1999 and 2000. This was followed by a period of market adjustment. The importance of electronic trading systems for enhancing price discovery was also discussed with reference to how spot and futures markets allow market participants to manage price volatility. It was determined that Canadians have had access to natural gas on terms and conditions equal to export customers, and at equal pricing. In early November 2000, natural gas prices in North American began to rise due to low levels of natural gas in storage. The price shocks were felt unevenly across the North American market. In response to the high prices, consumers conserved energy use, and many industrial users switched to cheaper fuels. By the spring 2001, demand continued to decrease at a time when production was high. These factors contributed to the downward pressure on gas prices. This EMA discusses the structure of market transactions and market adjustment mechanisms. It is presented in the context of the approaching 2002/2003 winter season where the tightening between natural gas supply and demand is expected to result in price volatility. 28 figs

  17. Unraveling hidden order in the dynamics of developed and emerging markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Yonatan; Shapira, Yoash; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    The characterization of asset price returns is an important subject in modern finance. Traditionally, the dynamics of stock returns are assumed to lack any temporal order. Here we present an analysis of the autocovariance of stock market indices and unravel temporal order in several major stock markets. We also demonstrate a fundamental difference between developed and emerging markets in the past decade - emerging markets are marked by positive order in contrast to developed markets whose dynamics are marked by weakly negative order. In addition, the reaction to financial crises was found to be reversed among developed and emerging markets, presenting large positive/negative autocovariance spikes following the onset of these crises. Notably, the Chinese market shows neutral or no order while being regarded as an emerging market. These findings show that despite the coupling between international markets and global trading, major differences exist between different markets, and demonstrate that the autocovariance of markets is correlated with their stability, as well as with their state of development.

  18. The market dynamics of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The market dynamics of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors: a private sector study in South Africa. Frasia Oosthuizen, Pariksha Jolene Kondiah, Hawa Bibi Moosa, Siddiqa Naroth, Nabeel Ismail Patel, Divashnee Reddy, Amanda Soobramoney ...

  19. The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2016-11-01

    The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

  20. Labour Market Dynamics in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... from Kenya, researchers will track how the labour trajectories for men and women change over time, and the links between firm outcomes and labour markets. ... Addressing Africa's unmet need for family planning by intensifying sexual and ...

  1. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  2. The Influence of Information Acquisition on the Complex Dynamics of Market Competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhanbing; Ma, Junhai

    In this paper, we build a dynamical game model with three bounded rational players (firms) to study the influence of information on the complex dynamics of market competition, where useful information is about rival’s real decision. In this dynamical game model, one information-sharing team is composed of two firms, they acquire and share the information about their common competitor, however, they make their own decisions separately, where the amount of information acquired by this information-sharing team will determine the estimation accuracy about the rival’s real decision. Based on this dynamical game model and some creative 3D diagrams, the influence of the amount of information on the complex dynamics of market competition such as local dynamics, global dynamics and profits is studied. These results have significant theoretical and practical values to realize the influence of information.

  3. The dynamics of risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mork, E.

    2006-01-01

    Premiums in futures prices are usually considered through the use of 2 models: a no-arbitrage model; and the equilibrium approach or theory of normal backwardation. The no-arbitrage approach equates futures prices with spot prices, storage costs and convenience yields, and is difficult to apply to electricity markets. This paper investigated future electricity prices in Nord Pool's futures market using an equilibrium approach, which split futures prices into an expected spot price component and a risk premium component. Three main hypotheses were used: (1) that risk premiums were present in the Nord Pool futures market during the period 1997-2004; that risk premiums in the Nord Pool futures market were smaller or absent during the period of 2000 to 2002; and, that there was a significant change in risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market after the winter of 2002-2003 due to a change in consumer hedging behaviour. Futures prices were compared to realized spot prices in their delivery periods in order to test the hypotheses. In order to estimate the futures premiums, a 1-sample test was performed on the entire period for 1, 30, 60, and 90 days before delivery of the block or month contract. The test employed the null hypothesis that the futures premiums were 0. Premiums were positive and varied between 3.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent. The purpose of the study was to determine whether risk premiums were present. Results showed that risk premiums varied over time. Two additional hypotheses were then investigated to examine whether the presence of outside speculators reduced risk premiums, and to see if a period of high prices and volatility caused more buyers to hedge in the futures market. Results showed that in the face of volatility and higher prices, consumers do not purchase fixed-price contracts which would ultimately increase futures premiums in the market. It was concluded that premiums are an important element in the pricing of Nord Pool futures and forwards

  4. Dynamics of cluster structures in a financial market network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocheturov, Anton; Batsyn, Mikhail; Pardalos, Panos M.

    2014-11-01

    In the course of recent fifteen years the network analysis has become a powerful tool for studying financial markets. In this work we analyze stock markets of the USA and Sweden. We study cluster structures of a market network constructed from a correlation matrix of returns of the stocks traded in each of these markets. Such cluster structures are obtained by means of the P-Median Problem (PMP) whose objective is to maximize the total correlation between a set of stocks called medians of size p and other stocks. Every cluster structure is an undirected disconnected weighted graph in which every connected component (cluster) is a star, or a tree with one central node (called a median) and several leaf nodes connected with the median by weighted edges. Our main observation is that in non-crisis periods of time cluster structures change more chaotically, while during crises they show more stable behavior and fewer changes. Thus an increasing stability of a market graph cluster structure obtained via the PMP could be used as an indicator of a coming crisis.

  5. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

  6. Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

    2015-01-01

    In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems

  7. Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

    2015-04-01

    In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

  8. Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun [School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Fang, Wen, E-mail: fangwen@bjtu.edu.cn [School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China)

    2015-04-15

    In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

  9. Modeling a Dynamic Portfolio for Pension Plans in Emerging Markets With Myopic and Nonmyopic Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pimentel, Livia F.; Santiago, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a dynamic formulation for the problem of portfolio selection of pension funds in the absence of a risk-free asset. In emerging markets, a risk-free asset might be unavailable, and the approaches commonly used may no longer be suitable. We use a parametric approach to combine dynamic...

  10. A unifying energy-based approach to stability of power grids with market dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegink, Tjerk; De Persis, Claudio; van der Schaft, Arjan

    2017-01-01

    In this paper a unifying energy-based approach is provided to the modeling and stability analysis of power systems coupled with market dynamics. We consider a standard model of the power network with a third-order model for the synchronous generators involving voltage dynamics. By applying the

  11. Commercial Capabilities and Entrepreneurial Value Capturing in Dynamic Maritime Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sløk-Madsen, Stefan Kirkegaard

    This paper develops and tests a theory of entrepreneurial value capturing in maritime markets. The framework is argued to be applicable in all maritime fields and other fields with similar attributes but is specifically tested on Oil Service companies operating in the North Sea region...... market process view; building on Kirznerian alertness, Hayekian capital heterogeneity, and Knightian uncertainty. The theory helps explain value capturing from a firm perspective but also subsequent new firm creation or value loss. The model is tested and relevant managerial implications, as well...

  12. Advanced Modeling of Renewable Energy Market Dynamics: May 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, M.; Little, R.; Lloyd, K.; Malikov, G.; Passolt, G.; Arent, D.; Swezey, B.; Mosey, G.

    2007-08-01

    This report documents a year-long academic project, presenting selected techniques for analysis of market growth, penetration, and forecasting applicable to renewable energy technologies. Existing mathematical models were modified to incorporate the effects of fiscal policies and were evaluated using available data. The modifications were made based on research and classification of current mathematical models used for predicting market penetration. An analysis of the results was carried out, based on available data. MATLAB versions of existing and new models were developed for research and policy analysis.

  13. Multifractal spectrum analysis of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shu-Peng; He, Ling-Yun

    2010-04-01

    Based on Partition Function and Multifractal Spectrum Analysis, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets, namely, Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE for short) and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE for short), where nearly all agricultural futures contracts are traded in the two markets. Firstly, we found nontrivial multifractal spectra, which are the empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features, in 4 representative futures markets in China, that is, Hard Winter wheat (HW for short) and Strong Gluten wheat (SG for short) futures markets from ZCE and Soy Meal (SM for short) futures and Soy Bean No.1 (SB for short) futures markets from DCE. Secondly, by shuffling the original time series, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation; thus, we identified that long-range correlation mechanism constitutes major contributions in the formation in the multifractals of the markets. Thirdly, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half spectra, we found that there exist critical points, between which there are different behaviors, in the left-half spectra for large price fluctuations; but for the right-hand spectra for small price fluctuations, the width of those increases slowly as the delay t increases in the long run. Finally, the dynamics of large fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones, which implies that there exist different underlying mechanisms in the formation of multifractality in the markets. Our main contributions focus on that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features in China agricultural commodity futures markets; but also we pioneered in investigating the sources of the multifractality in China’s agricultural futures markets in current literature; furthermore, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms based on spectrum analysis, which offers us insights into the underlying dynamical mechanisms in

  14. Dynamics in international market segmentation of new product growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lemmens, A.; Croux, C.; Stremersch, S.

    2012-01-01

    Prior international segmentation studies have been static in that they have identified segments that remain stable over time. This paper shows that country segments in new product growth are intrinsically dynamic. We propose a semiparametric hidden Markov model to dynamically segment countries based

  15. A Bayesian Panel Data Approach to Explaining Market Beta Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Bauer (Rob); M.M.J.E. Cosemans (Mathijs); R. Frehen (Rik); P.C. Schotman (Peter)

    2008-01-01

    markdownabstractWe characterize the process that drives the market betas of individual stocks by setting up a hierarchical Bayesian panel data model that allows a flexible specification for beta. We show that combining the parametric relationship between betas and conditioning variables specified by

  16. Labour Market Dynamics in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    By examining recent panel data from Ghana, Madagascar, South Africa and Uganda, plus cross-sectional data from Kenya, researchers will track how the labour trajectories for men and women change over time, and the links between firm outcomes and labour markets. It is hoped that the ... Date de début. 15 mars 2011 ...

  17. Effects of social networks on innovation diffusion and marketing dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delre, Sebastiano Alessio

    2007-01-01

    The main goal of this thesis is to incorporate part of the flourishing literature on network structures in a marketing context. Most of the results we have obtained and presented generate several implications. First of all we hope that the reader, after going through these chapters is convinced that

  18. Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanin, Maria Eugenia; Mansanet-Bataller, Maria; Violante, Francesco

    the fitness of the model, we combine the underlying price process with an additive stochastic jump process. We improve the model's performance by introducing a time-varying jump probability that is explained by two variables: the daily relative change in the volume of transactions and the European Commission...... periods. Thus, authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability....

  19. Dynamic effects of increasing heterogeneity in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad K.; Ricchiuti, Giorgio

    2009-01-01

    Despite canonical behavioural financial market models [Day R, Huang W. Bulls, bears and market sheep. J Econ Behav Org 1990;14:299-329], that use different types of agents (i.e., fundamentalist vs. chartists), we develop a model in which the source of instability is the interaction of groups that are homogeneous in the strategy they use, but have heterogeneous beliefs about the fundamental value of the asset. Specifically, heterogeneity arises among two groups of fundamentalists that follow gurus. We show that an increasing distance between beliefs (the degree of heterogeneity), leads first (i) to a pitchfork bifurcation to arise secondly (ii) it generates, together with a larger reaction to misalignment of both market maker and agents, the appearance of a periodic, or even, chaotic, price fluctuation; (iii) finally a homoclinic bifurcation [Dieci R, Bischi GI, Gardini L. From bi-stability to chaotic oscillations in a macroeconomic model. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2001;12:805-22] transforms a two piece chaotic set into a one piece chaotic set that generates bull and bear markets.

  20. DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA CARTAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

  1. The Entropic Linkage between Equity and Bond Market Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Parker

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available An alternative derivation of the yield curve based on entropy or the loss of information as it is communicated through time is introduced. Given this focus on entropy growth in communication the Shannon entropy will be utilized. Additionally, Shannon entropy’s close relationship to the Kullback–Leibler divergence is used to provide a more precise understanding of this new yield curve. The derivation of the entropic yield curve is completed with the use of the Burnashev reliability function which serves as a weighting between the true and error distributions. The deep connections between the entropic yield curve and the popular Nelson–Siegel specification are also examined. Finally, this entropically derived yield curve is used to provide an estimate of the economy’s implied information processing ratio. This information theoretic ratio offers a new causal link between bond and equity markets, and is a valuable new tool for the modeling and prediction of stock market behavior.

  2. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  3. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  4. Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emenike O. Kalu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

  5. Dynamic pricing of general insurance in a competitive market

    OpenAIRE

    Emms, P.

    2006-01-01

    A model for general insurance pricing is developed which represents a stochastic generalisation of the discrete model proposed by Taylor (1986). This model determines the insurance premium based both on the breakeven premium and the competing premiums offered by the rest of the insurance market. The optimal premium is determined using stochastic optimal control theory for two objective functions in order to examine how the optimal premium strategy changes with the insurer’s objective. Each of...

  6. European Integration, Labour Market Dynamics and Migration Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinoia, Michela

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper has two objectives. Firstly, we wish to evaluate whether a greater economic integration has effects, and of what type, on migration flows from Central and Eastern Europe (New Member States of the EU, NMS towards the fifteen countries of the European Union (EU-15. Secondly, we wish to understand what effect the migration flows from the NMS have on the labour market of the receiving countries in the EU-15. The most suitable theoretical context that seems to summarise European labour market characteristics is that of the insider/outsider model by Layard, Nickell and Jackman (Layard et al., 1991. We have modified the above mentioned model by introducing two innovations. Firstly, we constructed three measures that act as a proxy for economic integration: the Intra Regional Trade Index (IRTI, Global Trade Index (GTI and Financial Market Integration (FMI. Then we placed the three indicators into the insider/outsider model to arrive at a modified version of Layard, Nickell and Jackman (Layard et al., 1991. The second innovative contribution was the introduction of an equation modelling migration flows. The creation of this equation is inspired by the neo-classical approach to migration theory (Harris-Todaro, 1970. The theoretical model, based on rational expectations, has been solved to find the equilibrium solution and the impact multipliers. We then carried out an empirical analysis, which involved estimating a Structural Vector Autoregression Model (SVAR. The aim of this estimation was to evaluate, on the one hand, the effect that greater European integration (a positive shock to the integration indicators has on migration flows, and, on the other, to measure the type of effect that migration flows could have on the labour market of the EU-15 countries, considered as a single entity. The results of our empirical evidence show that economic integration does generate significant effects on migration flows from the enlargement countries

  7. The need for speed: informed land acquisitions for conservation in a dynamic property market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald-Madden, Eve; Bode, Michael; Game, Edward T; Grantham, Hedley; Possingham, Hugh P

    2008-11-01

    Land acquisition is a common approach to biodiversity conservation but is typically subject to property availability on the public market. Consequently, conservation plans are often unable to be implemented as intended. When properties come on the market, conservation agencies must make a choice: purchase immediately, often without a detailed knowledge of its biodiversity value; survey the parcel and accept the risk that it may be removed from the market during this process; or not purchase and hope a better parcel comes on the market at a later date. We describe both an optimal method, using stochastic dynamic programming, and a simple rule of thumb for making such decisions. The solutions to this problem illustrate how optimal conservation is necessarily dynamic and requires explicit consideration of both the time period allowed for implementation and the availability of properties.

  8. Dynamic of Arabica Coffee Marketing Organization in Ngada District:Progress Upon Implementing of Geographical Indication

    OpenAIRE

    Aklimawati, Lya

    2017-01-01

    Farmer organization has important role on coffee agribusiness development. Organization was positioned as a driving force on farmer economic activities, especially in strengthening partnership networks. Realizing the importance of organization, the aim of this research was to identify the coffee market structure in the scheme of Geographical Indication; to analyze the dynamic of coffee marketing organization at farmers level; and to analyze added value of wet parchment bean sales at the farme...

  9. Dynamics in a nonlinear Keynesian good market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we show how a rich variety of dynamical behaviors can emerge in the standard Keynesian income-expenditure model when a nonlinearity is introduced, both in the cases with and without endogenous government spending. A specific sigmoidal functional form is used for the adjustment mechanism of income with respect to the excess demand, in order to bound the income variation. With the aid of analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the stability conditions, bifurcations, as well as periodic and chaotic dynamics. Globally, we study multistability phenomena, i.e., the coexistence of different kinds of attractors

  10. Fractal stock markets: International evidence of dynamical (in)efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Sergio; Frezza, Massimiliano

    2017-07-01

    The last systemic financial crisis has reawakened the debate on the efficient nature of financial markets, traditionally described as semimartingales. The standard approaches to endow the general notion of efficiency of an empirical content turned out to be somewhat inconclusive and misleading. We propose a topological-based approach to quantify the informational efficiency of a financial time series. The idea is to measure the efficiency by means of the pointwise regularity of a (stochastic) function, given that the signature of a martingale is that its pointwise regularity equals 1/2 . We provide estimates for real financial time series and investigate their (in)efficient behavior by comparing three main stock indexes.

  11. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2008-01-01

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  12. Dynamic VaR Measurement of Gold Market with SV-T-MN Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenglan Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available VaR (Value at Risk in the gold market was measured and predicted by combining stochastic volatility (SV model with extreme value theory. Firstly, for the fat tail and volatility persistence characteristics in gold market return series, the gold price return volatility was modeled by SV-T-MN (SV-T with Mixture-of-Normal distribution model based on state space. Secondly, future sample volatility prediction was realized by using approximate filtering algorithm. Finally, extreme value theory based on generalized Pareto distribution was applied to measure dynamic risk value (VaR of gold market return. Through the proposed model on the price of gold, empirical analysis was investigated; the results show that presented combined model can measure and predict Value at Risk of the gold market reasonably and effectively and enable investors to further understand the extreme risk of gold market and take coping strategies actively.

  13. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lise, Wietze [IBS Research and Consultancy, Aga Han, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir, 34433 Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Ames Hall 313, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2008-07-15

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  14. Market dynamics, innovation, and transition in China's solar photovoltaic (PV) industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zou, Hongyang; Du, Huibin; Ren, Jingzheng

    2017-01-01

    development from the perspective of technological innovation. By incorporating a Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach, the analysis performed here complements the previous literature, which has not provided agrounded itself in a theoretical framework for associated analyses. In addition......China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry has undergone dramatic development in recent years and is now the global market leader in terms of newly added capacity. However, market diffusion and adoption in China is not ideal. This paper examines the blocking and inducement mechanisms of China’s PV industry......, to determine the current market dynamics, we closely examine the market concentration trends as well as the vertical and horizontal integration of upstream and downstream actors and calculate the market concentration of the upstream and downstream integration (74.8% and 36.3%). The results of applying the TIS...

  15. Determinacy, stock market dynamics and monetary policy inertia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2011-01-01

    We study equilibrium determinacy in a New-Keynesian model where the Central Bank responds to asset prices growth. Unlike Taylor-type rules that react to asset prices, the proposed alternative does not harm dynamic stability and in certain cases promotes determinacy by inducing interest-rate inertia....

  16. A Dynamic Model of the Combined Electricity and Natural Gas Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jenkins, Sandra; Annaswamy, Anuradha M.; Hansen, Jacob

    2015-01-01

    With the shale gas revolution, coal retirements, environmental regulations, and increasing renewable energy resources, the interdependency of natural gas and electricity has grown significantly. Interdependency challenges, such as mismatched market schedules and disparate market operations, require...... quantitative modeling in order to garner insights into the effectiveness of various solutions. In this paper, a quantitative model with a dynamic market mechanism is proposed to evaluate the effects of the fuel uncertainty of natural gas-fired power plants on Social Welfare. The results of the model show...

  17. Dynamics of market correlations: taxonomy and portfolio analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, J-P; Chakraborti, A; Kaski, K; Kertész, J; Kanto, A

    2003-11-01

    The time dependence of the recently introduced minimum spanning tree description of correlations between stocks, called the "asset tree" has been studied in order to reflect the financial market taxonomy. The nodes of the tree are identified with stocks and the distance between them is a unique function of the corresponding element of the correlation matrix. By using the concept of a central vertex, chosen as the most strongly connected node of the tree, an important characteristic is defined by the mean occupation layer. During crashes, due to the strong global correlation in the market, the tree shrinks topologically, and this is shown by a low value of the mean occupation layer. The tree seems to have a scale-free structure where the scaling exponent of the degree distribution is different for "business as usual" and "crash" periods. The basic structure of the tree topology is very robust with respect to time. We also point out that the diversification aspect of portfolio optimization results in the fact that the assets of the classic Markowitz portfolio are always located on the outer leaves of the tree. Technical aspects such as the window size dependence of the investigated quantities are also discussed.

  18. Dynamics of market correlations: Taxonomy and portfolio analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, J.-P.; Chakraborti, A.; Kaski, K.; Kertész, J.; Kanto, A.

    2003-11-01

    The time dependence of the recently introduced minimum spanning tree description of correlations between stocks, called the “asset tree” has been studied in order to reflect the financial market taxonomy. The nodes of the tree are identified with stocks and the distance between them is a unique function of the corresponding element of the correlation matrix. By using the concept of a central vertex, chosen as the most strongly connected node of the tree, an important characteristic is defined by the mean occupation layer. During crashes, due to the strong global correlation in the market, the tree shrinks topologically, and this is shown by a low value of the mean occupation layer. The tree seems to have a scale-free structure where the scaling exponent of the degree distribution is different for “business as usual” and “crash” periods. The basic structure of the tree topology is very robust with respect to time. We also point out that the diversification aspect of portfolio optimization results in the fact that the assets of the classic Markowitz portfolio are always located on the outer leaves of the tree. Technical aspects such as the window size dependence of the investigated quantities are also discussed.

  19. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  20. The changing dynamics between biofuels and commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bole, T.; Londo, H.M.

    2008-06-01

    The recent development of the biofuel industries coincides with significant increases in prices of basic commodities such as food and feed. Against popular perception, it appears that there is not a straightforward causal relationship between the two; there are a number of factors that determine the level and strength of the impact of the biofuels sector on other commodities. For the case of markets of agricultural raw material these factors include the amount of feedstock claimed by the biofuels industry, its relative purchasing power, the responsiveness of the agricultural sector to price incentives and availability of substitutes. For consumer food markets we must additionally consider the relative share of agricultural input costs in the retail food price and the demand elasticity. Based on the analysis of these factors and estimates of other studies that attempted to quantify the price impacts of biofuels on crop prices, we conclude that the impact of biofuels is relatively small, especially when compared with other causes that triggered the recent price increases. We end the paper with a recommendation for future efforts in curbing food price inflations while keeping ambitious biofuel targets and suggest a shift in focus of the debate around the social costs of biofuels

  1. The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Ciner, Cetin; Lucey, Brian M.

    2017-01-01

    The time varying price spillovers between natural gas and crude oil markets for the period 1994 to 2014 are investigated. Contrary to earlier research, we show that in a large part of our sample the natural gas price leads the price of crude oil with price spillover effects lasting up to two weeks. This result is robust to a battery of tests including out-of-sample forecasting exercises. However, after 2006, we detect little price dependencies between these two energy commodities. These findings arise due to a conjunction of both demand and supply-side shocks arising from both natural and economic events, including Hurricane Katrina, the Tohoku earthquake and the Global Financial Crisis, as well as infrastructure and technological improvements. The increased use of new technologies such as hydraulic fracking for the extraction of gas and oil in particular affected supply in the latter part of the study. We conclude that the long term relation present in the early part of the sample has decoupled, such that price determination of these two energy sources is now independent. - Highlights: • Contrary to earlier research we find natural gas may lead crude oil prices over a long sample. • This finding holds in forecasting out of sample. • There may be a break in the relationship between oil and gas in 2006. • We suggest that new technologies and financial conditions have led to a decoupling of these markets. • Oil and natural gas prices may now be determined independently.

  2. Policy changes and the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa, Patricia; Van Ackere, Ann

    2009-01-01

    Capacity of supply is a crucial matter in electricity markets as it directly influences reliability of supply, price volatility and blackout risk. In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market and the impact of different policies such as nuclear phaseout and management of electricity exchanges - imports and exports - policies. This article develops the conceptualization model presented in [Ochoa, P., 2007b. Policy changes in the Swiss electricity market: a system dynamics analysis of likely market responses. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 41 (4):336-349.]. We build a system dynamics model based on the dynamics of capacity expansion explained in the latter paper and present and analyse different scenarios. We conclude that international electricity exchanges are important for the Swiss market as they help to lower costs and to increase the income of the utility companies; however, we illustrate the need for explicit policies for managing imports and exports of electricity to avoid import dependence from neighbouring countries. (author)

  3. Dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.

  4. Electricity market reforms : institutional developments, investment dynamics and game modeling (Finland)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pineau, P.-O.

    2001-01-01

    During the 1990s, there was a definite trend to reform the electric power industry from the way in which it operated a century ago. The reform does not try to totally remove regulation. Rather, the basic objective is to limit central and governmental control over the industry so that free competition can be encouraged at all possible levels. This thesis tried to understand the status of deregulatory reforms and reviews how different countries and large utilities have reacted to the trend. Electricity is particular in that it is a non-storable basic good that is centrally produced. Compared to other industries such as the airline or telecommunication industry, this special nature creates barriers in the restructuring of power markets. An issue that is emerging with deregulation is that national energy policy goals no longer determine the behaviour of utilities. This will impact on how investments will be coordinated in the new market. A major factor to keep in mind is the competition level sought by these reforms. It is not yet known to which extent full competition can really occur in electricity markets. The oligopolistic structure of the market may even prevent such an outcome. It is important to examine the investment dynamics in such a context. This was the primary theme of the thesis. The two complementary approaches used included an example of an institution and its economic arguments that support market reform. A detailed example of the reform process in the electricity market in Finland was presented. The second approach was more analytical and was based on the market equilibria that may occur as a result of market reform. A dynamic model of investment for the power market was again applied to the electricity market in Finland

  5. Electricity market reforms : institutional developments, investment dynamics and game modeling (Finland)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pineau, P.-O.

    2001-07-01

    During the 1990s, there was a definite trend to reform the electric power industry from the way in which it operated a century ago. The reform does not try to totally remove regulation. Rather, the basic objective is to limit central and governmental control over the industry so that free competition can be encouraged at all possible levels. This thesis tried to understand the status of deregulatory reforms and reviews how different countries and large utilities have reacted to the trend. Electricity is particular in that it is a non-storable basic good that is centrally produced. Compared to other industries such as the airline or telecommunication industry, this special nature creates barriers in the restructuring of power markets. An issue that is emerging with deregulation is that national energy policy goals no longer determine the behaviour of utilities. This will impact on how investments will be coordinated in the new market. A major factor to keep in mind is the competition level sought by these reforms. It is not yet known to which extent full competition can really occur in electricity markets. The oligopolistic structure of the market may even prevent such an outcome. It is important to examine the investment dynamics in such a context. This was the primary theme of the thesis. The two complementary approaches used included an example of an institution and its economic arguments that support market reform. A detailed example of the reform process in the electricity market in Finland was presented. The second approach was more analytical and was based on the market equilibria that may occur as a result of market reform. A dynamic model of investment for the power market was again applied to the electricity market in Finland.

  6. Bubbles, Post-Crash Dynamics, and the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Crocker H. Liu; Adam Nowak; Stuart Rosenthal

    2014-01-01

    This paper documents and explains previously unrecognized post-crash dynamics following the collapse of a housing bubble. A simple model predicts that speculative developers ensure stable pre-crash relative prices between small and large homes while their post-crash exit allows small-home relative values to fall. Evidence from Phoenix supports the model. Although home prices doubled 2004-2006, relative prices of small-to-large homes remained nearly constant but then plummeted post-crash. As s...

  7. Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiou, Jer-Shiou; Lee, Yen-Hsien

    2009-01-01

    Our study distinguishes itself from the prior studies within the oil and financial literature by not only examining the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns, but also exploring the importance of structure changes in this dependency relationship. We retrieve daily data on S and P 500 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil transactions covering the period from 1 January 1992 to 7 November 2006, and then transform the available data into daily returns. In contrast to the extant literature, in this study, consideration of expected, unexpected and negative unexpected oil price fluctuations is incorporated into the model of stock returns; we also focus on the ways in which oil price volatility, as opposed to general macroeconomic variables, can influence the stock market. We go on to implement the ARJI (Autoregressive Conditional Jump Intensity) model with structure changes, from which we conclude that high fluctuations in oil prices have asymmetric unexpected impacts on S and P 500 returns. (author)

  8. Complex dynamics and multistability with increasing rationality in market games

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study oligopoly models in which firms adopt decision mechanisms based on best response techniques with different rationality degrees. Firms are also assumed to face resource or financial constraints in adjusting their production levels, so that, from time to time, they can only increase or decrease their strategy by a bounded quantity. We consider different families of oligopolies of generic sizes, characterized by heterogeneous compositions with respect to the rationality degrees of firms. We analytically study the local stability of the equilibrium depending on the oligopoly size and composition and through numerical simulations we investigate the possible dynamics arising when trajectories do not converge toward the equilibrium. We show that in this case complex dynamics can arise, and this is due to both the loss of stability of the equilibrium and to the emergence of multiple attractors, with the stable steady state coexisting with a different, periodic or chaotic, attractor. In particular, we show that multistability phenomena occur when the overall degree of rationality of the oligopoly is increased. Finally, we investigate the effect of non-convergent dynamics on the realized profits.

  9. Market dynamics of community pharmacies in Minnesota, U.S. from 1992 through 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schommer, Jon C; Yusuf, Akeem A; Hadsall, Ronald S

    2014-01-01

    An understanding of community pharmacy market dynamics is important for monitoring access points for pharmacist services. The purpose of this study was to describe (1) changes in pharmacy mix (independent versus chain) between 1992 and 2002 and between 2002 and 2012 for 87 counties in Minnesota (state in U.S.) and (2) the number (and proportion) of community pharmacies in Minnesota for the years 1992, 2002, and 2012 using a new categorization method developed specifically for this study. Data included licensure records for 1992, 2002, and 2012 from the State of Minnesota Board of Pharmacy and county level demographics for 1990, 2000 and 2010 from the US Census Bureau. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize findings over time and to describe associations between study variables. The ratio of independent pharmacies to chain pharmacies changed from approximately 2:1 in 1992 to 1:2 in 2012. The primary market factors associated with changes in the number of community pharmacies per county were (1) the metropolitan designation of the county and (2) whether the population density (persons/square mile) was increasing or decreasing. The face of community pharmacy in Minnesota changed between 1992 and 2012. By 2012, pharmacies were located in traditional retail pharmacies, mass merchandiser outlets, supermarkets, and clinics/medical centers. Furthermore, specialty pharmacies grew in proportion to meet patient needs. Between 1992 and 2012, the market dynamics of community pharmacies in Minnesota was characterized by vigorous market entry and exit. In light of recent health reform that is exhibiting characteristics such as continuity-of-care models, performance-based payment, technology advances, and the care of patients becoming more "ambulatory" (versus in-patient), we suggest that the market dynamics of community pharmacies will continue to exhibit vigorous market entry and exit in this new environment. It is proposed that the community pharmacy categories developed

  10. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  11. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  12. Firm expansion, size spillovers and market dominance in retail chain dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Blevins, JR; Khwaja, Ahmed Wali; Yang, N

    2017-01-01

    We develop and estimate a dynamic game of strategic firm expansion and contraction decisions to study the role of firm size on future profitability and market dominance. Modeling firm size is important because retail chain dynamics are more richly driven by expansion and contraction than de novo entry or permanent exit. Additionally, anticipated size spillovers may influence the strategies of forward looking firms making it difficult to analyze the effects of size without explicitly accountin...

  13. Conditional co-movement and dynamic interactions: US and BRIC equity markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study attempts to capture conditional or time-varying co-movement and dynamic interactions between the US and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China equity markets across the sample period 2004 to 2014 by employing diverse econometric models. The sample period is further divided into three different sub-periods concerning the US financial crisis period, viz. pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. The vector autoregression- dynamic conditional correlation-multivariate asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic [VAR-DCC-MVAGARCH (1.1] model and Toda-Yamamoto’s (1995 Granger causality tests are employed for the purpose of overall analysis in a multivariate framework. The results report the existence of time-varying co-movement between the US and BRIC equity markets, whereby co-movement between the US and Brazilian markets is found to be the highest, followed by the Russian, Indian, and Chinese equity markets. Dynamic interactions are also registered between the respective US/BRIC comovements during different sub-periods. The results have important implications for market participants and policymakers.

  14. Risk Profiles Along the Lifecycle in Dynamic Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koplyay Tamas

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available That supply chain management and logistics are a determining factor for the long term success of a company was well documented by Forrester over a half century ago [1], with the importance of the statement only growing through the intervening years.Whether consciously factored into the operating mode or not, logistics and distribution channel management plays a critical role in the life, and death, of a firm. From the rudimentary beginnings of the start-up company to the hectic world of the growth company and onto the relatively secure existence in mature markets, the value chain consisting of logistics and distribution channel linkages follows the firm, until it solidifies into immutable form of the mature value chain and begins to exert an inexorable pressure on the survival of the entire chain, and conversely the chain imposes its will on the members. The emergence of mature industry value chains is often driven by the need to monopolistically control logistics and distribution channels which provides a competitive advantage but also introduces a serious exposure to pending shock loadings of the chain.

  15. Interacting gaps model, dynamics of order book, and stock-market fluctuations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Svorenčík, A.; Slanina, František

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 57, - (2007), s. 453-462 ISSN 1434-6028 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1P04OCP10.001 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100520 Keywords : interacting gaps model * dynamics of order book * stock - market fluctuations Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.356, year: 2007

  16. Dynamic peak demand pricing under uncertainty in an agent-based retail energy market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Ansarin (Mohammad); W. Ketter (Wolfgang); J. Collins (John)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractFor a transition to a sustainable energy future, smart grids must adapt to the mass introduction of renewable energy sources and their inherent unpredictability. The Power TAC competition is a simulation of distribution grid market dynamics with autonomous retail broker agents. It seeks

  17. Poverty, Job Quality and Labor Market Dynamics in the Middle East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project will explore links between labour market dynamics and the quality of jobs in three varied settings. Egypt features low job quality and a large gender gap. Morocco conforms to Egypt to a significant degree. Jordan offers an exception, however, apparently related to greater diversification and better industrial export ...

  18. 3C, Internet Dynamics and Retail: Towards a new market segmentation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    drs. Frans van den Reep; Peter van den Heuvel

    2006-01-01

    The Internet introduces new business choices for customer interaction. In this article we introduce two claims. Firstly, we will show that the way companies shape their customer interaction, and not their sector or size, determine the market segmentation. Secondly, Internet dynamics and its effect

  19. Dynamic effects of social influence and direct marketing on the adoption of high-technology products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, H.; Verhoef, P.C.; Bijmolt, T.H.A.

    Many firms capitalize on their customers' social networks to improve the success rate of their new products. In this article, the authors analyze the dynamic effects of social influence and direct marketing on the adoption of a new high-technology product. Social influence is likely to play a role

  20. Essays on Labour Markets: Worker-Firm Dynamics, Occupational Segregation and Workplace Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.S. Buhai (Sebastian)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe main chapters of this book, “Essays on Labour Markets”, focus on analyzing the dynamics of the employment relationship between workers and firms (chapters 2 and 3), modelling occupational segregation and labour market inequalities between social groups (chapter 4) and characterizing

  1. Poverty, Job Quality and Labor Market Dynamics in the Middle East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Unemployment is one of the main economic, social and political problems facing governments in the Middle East and North Africa. The nature and ... This project will explore links between labour market dynamics and the quality of jobs in three varied settings. ... Effects of the new labor law on informality & job quality. 41985.

  2. Dynamical Analysis of Stock Market Instability by Cross-correlation Matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2016-08-01

    We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the cross-correlations, crosscorrelation matrices are calculated with a rolling window of 400 days. To quantify the volatile market stages where the potential risk is high, we apply the principal components analysis and measure the cumulative risk fraction (CRF), which is the system variance associated with the first few principal components. From the CRF, we detected three volatile market stages corresponding to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 Tohoku Region Pacific Coast Earthquake, and the FRB QE3 reduction observation in the study period. We further apply the random matrix theory for the risk analysis and find that the first eigenvector is more equally de-localized when the market is volatile.

  3. Ageing shocks and short-run regional labour market dynamics in a spatial panel VAR approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo; Schmidt, Torben Dall; Rauhut, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Using a flexible spatial panel VAR model for a small-scale labour market system, we investigate the dynamic interdependences between changes in the demographic structure and the labour market performance of a regional economy. With a particular focus on ageing shocks, we describe an increase...... in the share of elderly in regional population due to exogenous changes in the institutional context, such as pension reforms. The regional labour market implications of an ageing shock are then tested with regard to the effects on employment growth, unemployment and labour participation rate. Our results...... based on a sample of 71 Scandinavian regions point to negative regional labour market effects of an ageing shock implying a reduction in employment growth and a temporarily declining labour participation rate, while the unemployment rate increases. Importantly, spatial spillovers amplify these negative...

  4. Dynamical Analysis of Stock Market Instability by Cross-correlation Matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2016-01-01

    We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the cross-correlations, crosscorrelation matrices are calculated with a rolling window of 400 days. To quantify the volatile market stages where the potential risk is high, we apply the principal components analysis and measure the cumulative risk fraction (CRF), which is the system variance associated with the first few principal components. From the CRF, we detected three volatile market stages corresponding to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 Tohoku Region Pacific Coast Earthquake, and the FRB QE3 reduction observation in the study period. We further apply the random matrix theory for the risk analysis and find that the first eigenvector is more equally de-localized when the market is volatile. (paper)

  5. Dynamic pricing in the spanish gasoline market. A tacit collusion equilibrium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perdiguero Garcia, Jordi

    2010-01-01

    During the last twenty years, the Spanish petrol market has undergone an intensive restructuration process; it has changed from being a state-owned monopoly to total liberalization and privatization. This liberalization process was accompanied by measures that facilitated the creation of a 'national champion', the Repsol Group, which is a huge, vertically integrated company with a high market share in all the industry's segments. Using a dynamic model, this paper analyses whether the prices established by companies in the Spanish gasoline market, after the restructuration process, fits with a tacit collusion equilibrium. The empirical results show that a strategic behaviour of companies occurs and is compatible with a tacit collusion price strategy. So, the restructuration process does not seem to have introduced effective competition into the Spanish gasoline market. (author)

  6. Cointegration and causality analysis of dynamic linkage between stock market and equity mutual funds in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasipa Pojanavatee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The existing literature finds conflicting results on the magnitude of price linkages between equity mutual funds and the stock market. The study contends that in an optimal lagged model, the expectations of future prices using knowledge of past price behaviour in a particular equity mutual fund category will improve forecasts of prices of other equity mutual fund categories and the stock market index. The evidence shows that the long-run pricing of equity mutual funds is cointegrated with the stock market index. In the short run, the results indicate that some equity mutual fund categories possess both long-run and short-run exogeneity with the stock market. Therefore, the short-run dynamic indicates short-run Granger causal links running between different equity mutual fund categories.

  7. Competitive Structure of U.S. Grain Exporters in the World Market: A Dynamic Panel Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun J. Jin

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to analyze the competitive structure of U.S. wheat, corn, and soybeans exporters in the world market. A dynamic two¡ⓒway panel estimator is utilized in the analysis in place of typically used two¡ⓒway fixed effects panel estimator. A broader (in terms of the number of destination markets and more recent data sample is analyzed in this study in comparison to previous studies in order to reflect vast changes that occurred in world grain markets during the last twenty years. Results indicate the presence of pricing¡ⓒto¡ⓒmarkets behavior by U.S. grain exporters overall, and toward some importing countries in particular.

  8. A dynamic approach for the optimal electricity dispatch in the deregulated market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carraretto, Cristian; Lazzaretto, Andrea

    2004-01-01

    The electricity market has been experiencing the deregulation process in many countries. Effective approaches to the management of single power plants or groups of plants are therefore becoming crucial for the competitiveness of energy utilities. A dynamic programming approach is presented in this paper for the optimal plant management in the new Italian deregulated market. A thorough description of the method is given in cases of free or fixed production over time (e.g. when the overall production is limited by bilateral contracts or cogeneration). Analysis of market characteristics, detailed thermodynamic models of plant operation and reliable price forecasts over the time period of interest are required. The suggested approach is useful for both long-term scheduling and planning daily offers in the market

  9. Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

    2002-01-01

    Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

  10. Interplay Between Energy-Market Dynamics and Physical Stability of a Smart Power Grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, Sergio; Mammoli, Andrea; Sorrentino, Francesco

    2013-03-01

    A smart power grid is being envisioned for the future which, among other features, should enable users to play the dual role of consumers as well as producers and traders of energy, thanks to emerging renewable energy production and energy storage technologies. As a complex dynamical system, any power grid is subject to physical instabilities. With existing grids, such instabilities tend to be caused by natural disasters, human errors, or weather-related peaks in demand. In this work we analyze the impact, upon the stability of a smart grid, of the energy-market dynamics arising from users' ability to buy from and sell energy to other users. The stability analysis of the resulting dynamical system is performed assuming different proposed models for this market of the future, and the corresponding stability regions in parameter space are identified. We test our theoretical findings by comparing them with data collected from some existing prototype systems.

  11. Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    There is not enough marketing of dentistry; but there certainly is too much selling of poor quality service that is being passed off as dentistry. The marketing concept makes the patient and the patients' needs the ultimate criteria of marketing efforts. Myths and good practices for effective marketing that will promote oral health are described under the traditional four "Ps" categories of "product" (best dental care), "place" (availability), "promotion" (advertising and other forms of making patients aware of available services and how to use them), and "price" (the total cost to patients of receiving care).

  12. Forest insurance market participants’ game behavior in China: An analysis based on tripartite dynamic game model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ma

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In forest insurance market, there are three main participants including the insurance company, the forest farmer and the government. As different participant has different benefit object, there will be a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants. The purpose of this paper is to make the game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market clear, and then to put forward some policy suggestions on the implementation of forest insurance from the view of game theory. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, the static game model between the insurance company and the forest farmer is set up. According to the result of static game model, it’s difficult to implement forest insurance without government. Secondly, the tripartite dynamic game model among the government, the insurance company and the forest farmer is proposed, and the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model is acquired. Finally, the behavioral characteristics of all participants are analyzed according to the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model. Findings: the government’s allowance will be an important positive factor to implement forest insurance. The loss of the insurance company, which the lower insurance premium brings, can be compensated by the allowance from the government. The more the government provides allowance, the more actively the insurance company will implement forest insurance at a low insurance premium. In this situation, the forest farmer will be more likely to purchase the forest insurance, then the scope of forest insurance implementation will expend. Originality/value: There is a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market. Based on the tripartite dynamic game model, to make the game relationship between each participant clear is conducive to the implementation of forest insurance market in China.

  13. Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.

  14. Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  15. Static and dynamic factors in an information-based multi-asset artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano

    2018-02-01

    An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.

  16. Quantifying the behavior of price dynamics at opening time in stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Takada, Hideyuki; Nacher, Jose C.

    2014-11-01

    The availability of huge volume of financial data has offered the possibility for understanding the markets as a complex system characterized by several stylized facts. Here we first show that the time evolution of the Japan’s Nikkei stock average index (Nikkei 225) futures follows the resistance and breaking-acceleration effects when the complete time series data is analyzed. However, in stock markets there are periods where no regular trades occur between the close of the market on one day and the next day’s open. To examine these time gaps we decompose the time series data into opening time and intermediate time. Our analysis indicates that for the intermediate time, both the resistance and the breaking-acceleration effects are still observed. However, for the opening time there are almost no resistance and breaking-acceleration effects, and volatility is always constantly high. These findings highlight unique dynamic differences between stock markets and forex market and suggest that current risk management strategies may need to be revised to address the absence of these dynamic effects at the opening time.

  17. Complex dynamics and chaos control of duopoly Bertrand model in Chinese air-conditioning market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Qi Guo; Zeng, Xiang Jin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A dynamic duopoly Bertrand model with bounded rationality and quadratic cost function. •In Chinese air-conditioning market the boundary equilibrium point is locally stable. •The Lyapunov dimension of the chaos attractor is 1.9585. •The adjustment speeds may cause a market structure to behave chaotically. •The chaotic behavior can be controlled by decreasing the degree of substitutability. -- Abstract: A dynamic duopoly Bertrand model with quadratic cost function which is closer to reality and different from previous researches is discussed. The model is applied into air-conditioning market where the boundary equilibrium point is locally stable. Numerical simulations illustrate that the stability of Nash equilibrium strongly depends on the speed of adjustment of bounded rational player. The adjustment speeds and the degree of substitutability may undermine the stability of the equilibrium and cause a market structure to behave chaotically. The Lyapunov dimension of the chaos attractor is 1.9585 under some conditions. The stabilization of the chaotic behavior can be obtained by reducing the degree of substitutability. The results have an important theoretical and practical significance to Chinese air-conditioning market

  18. Dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ren

    Full Text Available The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop before (after the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.

  19. Local and global dynamics in a duopoly with price competition and market share delegation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanti, Luciano; Gori, Luca; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at studying a nonlinear dynamic duopoly model with price competition and horizontal product differentiation augmented with managerial firms, where managers behave according to market share delegation contracts. Ownership and management are then separate and managers are paid through adequate incentives in order to achieve a competitive advantage in the market. In this context, we show that complexity arises, related both to the structure of the attractors of the system and the structure of their basins, as multistability occurs. The study is conducted by combining analytical and numerical techniques, and aims at showing that slight different initial conditions may cause very different long-term outcomes

  20. Price dynamics of the financial markets using the stochastic differential equation for a potential double well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, L. S.; Miranda, L. L. B.

    2018-01-01

    We have used the Itô's stochastic differential equation for the double well with additive white noise as a mathematical model for price dynamics of the financial market. We have presented a model which allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents, with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the β parameter that represents the force of the randomness term of the model.

  1. Minimal agent based model for financial markets II. Statistical properties of the linear and multiplicative dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

    2009-02-01

    We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.

  2. Dynamic voltage stability constrained congestion management framework for deregulated electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Hakimi, Mahmood

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new congestion management method for electricity markets is proposed. ► The proposed method includes dynamic models of generators and loads. ► Dynamic voltage stability limits are properly modeled in the proposed method. ► The proposed method is compared with several other congestion management methods. ► It leads to a more robust power system with a lower congestion management cost. - Abstract: Congestion management is an important part of power system operation in today deregulated electricity markets. However, congestion management is traditionally performed based on static analysis tools, while these tools may not correctly capture dynamic voltage stability limits of a power system. In this paper, a new congestion management framework considering dynamic voltage stability boundary of power system is proposed. For this purpose, precise dynamic modeling of power system equipment, including generators and loads, is incorporated into the proposed congestion management framework. The proposed method alleviates congestion with a lower congestion management cost and more dynamic voltage stability margin, resulting in a more robust power system, compared with the previous congestion management methods. The validity of proposed congestion management framework is studied based on the New England 39-bus power system. The obtained results confirm the validity of the developed approach.

  3. Wholesale energy market in a smart grid. Dynamic modeling, stability, and robustness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiani Bejestani, Arman

    2013-01-24

    The recent paradigm shift in the architecture of the smart grid is driven by the need to integrate Renewable Energy Resources (RER), the availability of information through communication networks, and an emerging policy of demand that is intertwined with pricing. A major component of this architecture is the design of electricity markets, which pertains to the optimal scheduling of power generation and reserve requirements. The challenge is to carry out this scheduling with a high level of integration of renewable generation sources, a formidable task due to intermittency and uncertainty. Introducing huge intermittency and uncertainty in the smart grid will demand a dynamic framework for addressing the operation, scheduling and financial settlements in the uncertain environment. The temporal components in scheduling generation are necessary due to increasing penetration of renewable sources, and increasing potential of adjustable demand via Demand Response (DR). The former brings issues of strong intermittency and uncertainty, and the latter brings a feedback structure, where demand can be modulated over a range of time-scales. Both of these components are dictating a new look at market mechanisms, with a controls viewpoint enabling a novel framework for analysis and synthesis. This dissertation provides static and dynamic models that capture the various aspects of electrical power systems, including the dynamics of market participants, the physical and technical constraints of power systems, and the uncertainty of RER. The proposed models shed new light on wholesale electricity market design, allowing an understanding to be gained of how to create markets, which enhance the stability of price profiles, and efficiency of the power systems, in the presence of uncertain demand and intermittent resources. The notion of market equilibrium in the presence of RER and DR is presented. The effects of uncertainties due to forecast errors in RER and variations due to DR on

  4. Exploring oil market dynamics: a system dynamics model and microworld of the oil producers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morecroft, J.D.W. [London Business School (United Kingdom); Marsh, B. [St Andrews Management Institute, Fife (United Kingdom)

    1997-11-01

    This chapter focuses on the development of a simulation model of global oil markets by Royal Dutch/Shell Planners in order to explore the implications of different scenarios. The model development process, mapping the decision making logic of the oil producers, the swing producer making enough to defend the intended price, the independents, quota setting, the opportunists, and market oil price and demand are examined. Use of the model to generate scenarios development of the model as a gaming simulator for training, design of the user interface, and the value of the model are considered in detail. (UK)

  5. Market dynamics as a driver towards the evolution of research needs; the case of up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket seeding granules

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Musee, N

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Market dynamics offer positive (incentive) or negative (disincentive) feedback loops that shape the research needs for, or certain aspects of, a particular technology. Our case study results illustrate how market dynamics have influenced...

  6. Market concentration and technological innovation in a dynamic model of growth and distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Tadeu Lima

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a post Keynesian macromodel of growth and distribution in which endogenous technological innovation plays a pivotal role. The innovationrate is made quadratic in market concentration, to capture a plausible neo-Schumpeterian non-linear influence of market structure on firms' propensity to innovate. Concentration is endogenous, though, since under neo-Schumpeterian competition the relation between market structure and technical change cuts both ways. Investment will then be non-linear in concentration, and the effect of changes in concentration on capacity utilisation, growth and distribution will depend on the level of concentration. Demand also plays a role, with capacity utilisation andgrowth rising with the wage share. The dynamic stability properties of the system will depend on the direction and relative strength of the technological innovation effects with respect to the demand ones, and on the relative bargaining power of workers and capitalists.

  7. A Network-Based Dynamic Analysis in an Equity Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Eberhard

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We study how changes in the structure of a brokers’ transaction network affect the probability with which the returns and volume of the traded financial assets change significantly. We analyze how the dynamics of the brokers’ transaction network are associated with the returns and volume observed in the Chilean stock market. To do this, we construct and validate an index that synthesizes the daily changes of the brokers’ transaction network structure of equity market transactions. We find that the changes of this structure are significantly correlated with variables that describe the local and international economic-financial environments. In addition, changes in the brokers’ transaction network structure are associated with a greater probability of positive shocks of more than two standard deviations in the stock exchange index return and total traded stock volume. These results suggest that the structure of the brokers’ trading relations plays a role in determining the returns and volume of transactions in the Chilean stock market.

  8. Labour Market Performance Differentials and Dynamics in EU-15 Countries and Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano Perugini

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to contribute to empirical analysis of the differentials, dynamics and determinants of labour market performance in EU-15. One innovation of the paper reflects our decision not to use a single indicator of labour market performance, but to adopt three variables: employment rate, unemployment rate, and long-term unemployment rate. In addition to national data (1997-2006, the use of data at regional NUTS-2 level (1999-2005 is a key characteristic of this study. Empirical analyses are carried out by means of various comparative statistics and econometric approaches. In the latter, a large set of explicative variables is applied to examine the potential determinants of regional (unemployment levels and dynamics.

  9. Post-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2017-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are useful to cool off traders short-term trading mania on individual stocks. The price dynamics approaching the limit boards are known as the magnet effect. However, the price dynamics after opening price limit hits are not well investigated. Here, we provide a detailed analysis on the price dynamics after the hits of up-limit or down-limit is open based on all A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock markets. A "W" shape is found in the expected return, which reveals high probability of a continuous price limit hit on the following day. We also find that price dynamics after opening limit hits are dependent on the market trends. The time span of continuously hitting the price limit is found to an influence factor of the expected profit after the limit hit is open. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics around the limit boards and contributes potential practical values for investors.

  10. Labour Market Flexibility and Regional Unemployment Rate Dynamics: Spain (1980-1995)

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto Bande; Marika Karanassou

    2006-01-01

    This paper aims to shed light in the dynamics of Spanish regional unemployment rates and determine the driving forces of their disparities. The Spanish economy has one of the highest unemployment rates in the EU and is characterised by severe regional disparities. We apply the chain reaction theory of unemployment according to which the evolution of unemployment is driven by the interplay of lagged adjustment processes and the spillover effects within the labour market system. Our model inclu...

  11. Risk Neutral Option Pricing With Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Nassim N. Taleb

    2014-01-01

    Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both mor...

  12. Micro-Level Adaptation, Macro-Level Selection, and the Dynamics of Market Partitioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Díaz, César; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen; Péli, Gábor

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides a micro-foundation for dual market structure formation through partitioning processes in marketplaces by developing a computational model of interacting economic agents. We propose an agent-based modeling approach, where firms are adaptive and profit-seeking agents entering into and exiting from the market according to their (lack of) profitability. Our firms are characterized by large and small sunk costs, respectively. They locate their offerings along a unimodal demand distribution over a one-dimensional product variety, with the distribution peak constituting the center and the tails standing for the peripheries. We found that large firms may first advance toward the most abundant demand spot, the market center, and release peripheral positions as predicted by extant dual market explanations. However, we also observed that large firms may then move back toward the market fringes to reduce competitive niche overlap in the center, triggering nonlinear resource occupation behavior. Novel results indicate that resource release dynamics depend on firm-level adaptive capabilities, and that a minimum scale of production for low sunk cost firms is key to the formation of the dual structure.

  13. Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Jung-Hua, E-mail: hwaa@mail.ncku.edu.tw [Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan (China); Huang, Yi-Lung [Exploration and Development Research Institute, Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan, No. 1, Dayuan, Wenfa Road, Miaoli City, Miaoli County 36042, Taiwan (China); Liu, Chang-Chen [Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan (China)

    2011-07-15

    Upon the implementation of the floating price mechanism, Taiwan's gasoline and diesel prices returned to market mechanism, which terminated the phenomenon of the public paying for the losses of the state-owned oil company-Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan (CPC). Furthermore, the relatively low production costs of the privately owned Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) disclosed the pricing mechanism of CPC, which inspired FPCC to adopt pricing strategy in order to increase the market share. This study aims to establish a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of the floating price mechanism on Taiwan's gasoline and diesel markets. This Model is divided into four sub-systems. The model of this study passed several validation tests, and hence, is able to provide a 'virtual laboratory' for policy-makers to conduct simulation and scenario analysis. The simulation results indicate (a) feedback mechanism of expected revenues and pricing strategy could efficiently simulate the FPCC pricing mechanism, (b) price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues, although the effect on market share is not remarkable, and (c) FPCC has a higher gas-station growth rate. Scenario analyses found (a) lowering oil security stockpile would not change FPCC's pricing strategy and (b) FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations. - Highlights: > System dynamics model analyzes the effects of oil markets' floating price mechanism. > Feedback mechanism of expected revenues could efficiently simulate pricing mechanism. > Price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues. > Lowering oil security stockpile, FPCC's pricing strategy would not change. > FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations.

  14. Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jung-Hua; Huang, Yi-Lung; Liu, Chang-Chen

    2011-01-01

    Upon the implementation of the floating price mechanism, Taiwan's gasoline and diesel prices returned to market mechanism, which terminated the phenomenon of the public paying for the losses of the state-owned oil company-Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan (CPC). Furthermore, the relatively low production costs of the privately owned Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) disclosed the pricing mechanism of CPC, which inspired FPCC to adopt pricing strategy in order to increase the market share. This study aims to establish a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of the floating price mechanism on Taiwan's gasoline and diesel markets. This Model is divided into four sub-systems. The model of this study passed several validation tests, and hence, is able to provide a 'virtual laboratory' for policy-makers to conduct simulation and scenario analysis. The simulation results indicate (a) feedback mechanism of expected revenues and pricing strategy could efficiently simulate the FPCC pricing mechanism, (b) price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues, although the effect on market share is not remarkable, and (c) FPCC has a higher gas-station growth rate. Scenario analyses found (a) lowering oil security stockpile would not change FPCC's pricing strategy and (b) FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations. - Highlights: → System dynamics model analyzes the effects of oil markets' floating price mechanism. → Feedback mechanism of expected revenues could efficiently simulate pricing mechanism. → Price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues. → Lowering oil security stockpile, FPCC's pricing strategy would not change. → FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations.

  15. The combination of system dynamics and game theory in analyzing oligopoly markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a hybrid method of game theory and dynamic systems to study the behavior of firms in an oligopoly market. The aim of this study is to build a model for an oligopoly game on the basis of feedback loops and system dynamics approach and to solve the resulted problems under some special conditions where traditional game theory methods are unable to handle. The method includes a combination of qualitative methods including interviews with industry experts to prepare the model and quantitative methods of system dynamics, simulation methodologies and game theory. The results indicate that competitive behavior and the important parameters such as volume of demand, interest rates and price fluctuation will be stabilized after a transition period.

  16. The articulation of Mexico into the dynamics of competition of the North American natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elizalde Baltierra, A.

    2002-07-01

    Deregulation is at the origin of the new dynamics of competition in the natural gas industry. The United States and Canada were the pioneer countries to suffer these changes. In fact, their natural gas markets today function in a very similar way: i) the private sector takes a place as large as possible, and ii)competition is developed within the three segments of the gas value, especially at the upstream level (emergence of hubs, spot and financial markets,...). In Mexico, its downstream gas activities (transportation, storage and distribution) were liberalized in 1995 in order to attract private investments and to develop the gas sector that has historically been operated under State control. Gas upstream operations remain reserved by the Constitution to the national oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). This thesis develops an evaluation framework of the articulation of Mexico into the dynamics of competition of the North American natural gas market, based on the structure-conduct-performance paradigm. In the first part, all North American's natural gas industries base conditions are analyzed. We examine in the second part, the deregulation and articulation of the dynamics of competition of the American and Canadian gas industries. Finally, in the third part we analyze the main elements of the articulation of Mexico into the dynamics of competition of United States and Canada's gas industries. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of three of these elements (the economic growth, the electric power generation sector and eventually opening to private investments of gas upstream activities) on the adjustment of gas supply and demand in Mexico to the year 2020. (author)

  17. Dynamics of market structure driven by the degree of consumer’s rationality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagita, Tatsuo; Onozaki, Tamotsu

    2010-03-01

    We study a simple model of market share dynamics with boundedly rational consumers and firms interacting with each other. As the number of consumers is large, we employ a statistical description to represent firms’ distribution of consumer share, which is characterized by a single parameter representing how rationally the mass of consumers pursue higher utility. As the boundedly rational firm does not know the shape of demand function it faces, it revises production and price so as to raise its profit with the aid of a simple reinforcement learning rule. Simulation results show that (1) three phases of market structure, i.e. the uniform share phase, the oligopolistic phase, and the monopolistic phase, appear depending upon how rational consumers are, and (2) in an oligopolistic phase, the market share distribution of firms follows Zipf’s law and the growth-rate distribution of firms follows Gibrat’s law, and (3) an oligopolistic phase is the best state of market in terms of consumers’ utility but brings the minimum profit to the firms because of severe competition based on the moderate rationality of consumers.

  18. Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, Alexander M.; Wang Fengzhong; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2010-01-01

    We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T) -Ω , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n ' (|t-T|) of 'preshocks' before the interest-rate change at time T. This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the 'sign effect', in which 'bad news' has a larger impact than 'good news'. Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a 'market under-reaction' that lasts at least one trading day.

  19. Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Alexander M; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

    2010-06-01

    We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T)(-Ω) , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of "preshocks" before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the "sign effect," in which "bad news" has a larger impact than "good news." Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a "market under-reaction" that lasts at least one trading day.

  20. Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Alexander M.; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2010-06-01

    We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)˜(t-T)-Ω , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of “preshocks” before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the “sign effect,” in which “bad news” has a larger impact than “good news.” Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a “market under-reaction” that lasts at least one trading day.

  1. Nonlinear multi-analysis of agent-based financial market dynamics by epidemic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-10-01

    Based on the epidemic dynamical system, we construct a new agent-based financial time series model. In order to check and testify its rationality, we compare the statistical properties of the time series model with the real stock market indices, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index. For analyzing the statistical properties, we combine the multi-parameter analysis with the tail distribution analysis, the modified rescaled range analysis, and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. For a better perspective, the three-dimensional diagrams are used to present the analysis results. The empirical research in this paper indicates that the long-range dependence property and the multifractal phenomenon exist in the real returns and the proposed model. Therefore, the new agent-based financial model can recurrence some important features of real stock markets.

  2. Dynamical behaviors of inter-out-of-equilibrium state intervals in Korean futures exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Kim, Kyungsik; Lee, Dong-In; Scalas, Enrico

    2008-05-01

    A recently discovered feature of financial markets, the two-phase phenomenon, is utilized to categorize a financial time series into two phases, namely equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium states. For out-of-equilibrium states, we analyze the time intervals at which the state is revisited. The power-law distribution of inter-out-of-equilibrium state intervals is shown and we present an analogy with discrete-time heat bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. In the mean-field approximation, this model reduces to a one-dimensional multiplicative process. By varying global and local model parameters, the relevance between volatilities in financial markets and the interaction strengths between agents in the Ising model are investigated and discussed.

  3. Solar Thermal Technologies Dynamics and Strategies for Market Creation in Sindh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asif Ali Shah

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to sketch Sindh's RE (Renewable Energy based scenario, it is vital to trace the dynamics of simplest RETs (Renewable Energy Technologies such as STTs (Solar Thermal Technologies. STTs are simple to operate, easy to maintain and requires low cost of fabrication. Due to these advantages, STTs possess scope for mass market creation in Sindh as can provide alternate energy solutions to meet daily fuel requirements of heating and cooking etc. The paper identifies that the low awareness creates a negative perception about the price and efficiency of these technologies in masses, which can be removed once the awareness increases. This paper consists of survey findings, which traces the trends for STTs utilization in Sindh by testing various hypotheses to identify the suitable tactics required for their market creation. Finally the key policy recommendations are provided at the end.

  4. Strategic energy planning: Modelling and simulating energy market behaviours using system thinking and systems dynamics principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papageorgiou, George Nathaniel

    2005-01-01

    In the face of limited energy reserves and the global warming phenomenon, Europe is undergoing a transition from rapidly depleting fossil fuels to renewable unconventional energy sources. During this transition period, energy shortfalls will occur and energy prices will be increasing in an oscillating manner. As a result of the turbulence and dynamicity that will accompany the transition period, energy analysts need new appropriate methods, techniques and tools in order to develop forecasts for the behaviour of energy markets, which would assist in the long term strategic energy planning and policy analysis. This paper reviews energy market behaviour as related to policy formation, and from a dynamic point of view through the use of ''systems thinking'' and ''system dynamics'' principles, provides a framework for modelling the energy production and consumption process in relation to their environment. Thereby, effective energy planning can be developed via computerised simulation using policy experimentation. In a demonstration model depicted in this paper, it is shown that disasters due to attractive policies can be avoided by using simple computer simulation. (Author)

  5. A Dynamic Model of the Tragedy of the Commons in Marketing-Intensive Industries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dohoon Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study provides a dynamic model and analyzes its process that may plunge the business ecosystem into ToC (the Tragedy of the Commons. When developing the model, we have in mind some industries where the marketing competition to secure a large installed base is intense. The social commerce industry is a representative example of this type of industries, but the scope of this study is not limited to the industry. We first introduce a previous study focusing on the static Nash equilibrium, and then present an extended version of the basic model in a dynamic perspective. According to our analyses on the dynamic equilibria together with their stability, there may be a unique interior equilibrium, but it is highly likely unstable. In addition, possible (near boundary equilibria are also unstable for a wide range of parameter values. We also conduct some numerical experiments and discover cycles as solutions to some particular instances. Since those cycles contain the ToC traps, a policy measure or regulation may need to be employed. Our approach and results will help to figure out a clue to escape from the ToC trap, thereby shedding new light on the sustainable growth of the business ecosystem, which is prone to excessive marketing competition.

  6. Effect of repeat purchase and dynamic market size on diffusion of an innovative technological consumer product in a segmented market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggarwal, S.; Gupta, A.; Govindan, K.

    2014-01-01

    creates a spectrum effect in market with an aim to create wider product awareness and influence the market size. Whereas the differentiated promotion strategy plays major role in external influence component in the respective segment and target for adoption by the current potential segment. Previous......This study develops diffusion models for technological consumer products under the marketing environment when a product is marketed in a segmented market and observes two distinctive promotional strategies of mass and differentiated promotion; an under explored study area. Mass promotion strategy...... studies on segmented diffusion models assumed only first time purchase and constant market size which may yield underestimated results and fail to give appropriate insight of the diffusion process. The study develops and validates generalized diffusion models for segmented market incorporating...

  7. Foreign institutional investments in India: An empirical analysis of dynamic interactions with stock market return and volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaishali S. Dhingra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates interactions of foreign institutional investments with market returns and market volatility in India using both static and dynamic models based on daily data. The findings of both models show foreign investors as positive feedback traders while investing in the Indian market, and as negative feedback traders during their withdrawal. Using the impulse response functions based on vector autoregression, we find strong evidence that foreign institutional investments destabilise the market, particularly with selling activities, as they significantly increase the volatility.

  8. First principles, market failures and endogenous obsolescence: the dynamic approach to capacity mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppler, Jan Horst

    2014-11-01

    The theoretical benchmark model arguing that competitive energy-only markets with VOLL pricing can provide sufficient levels of capacity is a coherent starting point also for discussions about capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRMs). Two types of market imperfection, both stemming from the non-storability of electricity and the resultant inelasticity of demand, however require qualification of the benchmark model and can justify CRMs. The first type of market imperfection relates to the existence of security-of-supply externalities as involuntary curbs on demand under VOLL-pricing create disutility beyond the private non-consumption of electricity. In interconnected economies, utility does not only depend on individual electricity consumption but also on the smooth consumption of others. These externalities are captured in the difference between voluntary and involuntary demand response. The second type of market imperfection relates to the asymmetric incentives for investors under imperfect information. Due to the inelasticity of demand and the lumpiness of generating equipment, investors in markets for non-storable goods will err on the side of caution, under-investing at the margin rather than over-investing. There exists thus not an intrinsic, general case but a time- and context-specific case for CRMs depending on the shape of the load-curve, the elasticity of demand and the availability of flexibility resources. The choice of mechanism will depend on the number of hours of potential capacity short-falls and the resulting capital-intensity of the technologies most apt to respond to them. Most importantly, well-designed CRMs will set in motion the very structural dynamics towards more elastic demand, a development that might one day make them obsolete and render the theoretical benchmark model applicable again. CRMs thus require transparent and pre-announced review mechanisms at regular intervals. (authors)

  9. Competitive marketing strategies: tools for enhancing value in the dynamic world of business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph. D. Kehinde Oladele Joseph

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Developing solid competitive marketing strategies in order to contribute towards long-term sustainable success, has become imperative today for every success driven organization. The paper examines a number of Competitive Strategies, whitch have become string tools for enhancing value in the Nigerian Telecommunication industry.Thr objectives of the paper among others are to (iExamine whether there is any relationship between the use ao competitive marketing strategies and business success and(ii Find out whether the various competitive marketing strategies used by Nigerian telecommunication firms have effects on rival companies, among others.The paper uses survey method with two hypotheses stated in the null form, with structured questionnaire,which were,distributed among the sampled respondents who are secondary school teachers in Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo states of Nigeria.Results were analyzed with the aid of correlation test statistics.Findings show that there is significant positive relationship between the use of competitive Marketing Strategies and Business Success.Finding also reveals that the various Competitive Strategiea used by players have effects on other competitors. The paper makesvarious policy recommendtions,which operators in the Nigerian Telecomunication Industry will find useful, if faithfully implemented. These include the need for firms to constantly engage in research to meet the changing needs of their esteemed Customers. Companies must identify where they could have competitive advantage over their Competitors and that Companies must render quality Service and try to constantly improve their offers in the face of changing market Dynamics, amongst others.

  10. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

  11. How Overall Logistics Strategy Mediates The Influence Of Market Attractiveness And Dynamic Capability On Strategic Competitive Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Febriyanto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This research is conducted to examine the influence of market attractiveness and dynamic capability on strategic competitive response through overall logistics strategies of logistics service providers LSPs. Involving 266 LSPs SEM-LISREL is applied to test the hypotheses. The findings reveal that the market attractiveness and the dynamic capability positively affect the overall logistics strategy. Additionally the market attractiveness and the dynamic capability positively affect the strategic competitive response. Indirectly the market attractiveness and the dynamic capability positively affect the performance through strategic competitive response of LSPs. Obviously overall logistics strategy strengthen the influence of both market attractiveness and dynamic capability on strategic competitive response. There are five alternatives to optimize the overall logistics strategy of LSPs market intensification integration focus collaboration and strengthening value proposition. The involvement of overall logistics strategy as mediating variable is new paradigm in the strategic management discourses especially in logistics industry. Further research needs to be performed by involving the size of business as control variable and LSPs perception on Governments policies.

  12. Investigating the Evolution of Linkage Dynamics among Equity Markets Using Network Models and Measures: The Case of Asian Equity Market Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biplab Bhattacharjee

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The state of cross-market linkage structures and its stability over varying time-periods play a key role in the performance of international diversified portfolios. There has been an increasing interest of global investors in emerging capital markets in the Asian region. In this setting, an investigation into the temporal dynamics of cross-market linkage structures becomes significant for the selection and optimal allocation of securities in an internationally-diversified portfolio. In the quest for this, in the current study, weighted network models along with network metrics are employed to decipher the underlying cross-market linkage structures among Asian markets. The study analyses the daily return data of fourteen major Asian indices for a period of 14 years (2002–2016. The topological properties of the network are computed using centrality measures and measures of influence strength and are investigated over temporal scales. In particular, the overall influence strengths and India-specific influence strengths are computed and examined over a temporal scale. Threshold filtering is also performed to characterize the dynamics related to the linkage structure of these networks. The impacts of the 2008 financial crisis on the linkage structural patterns of these equity networks are also investigated. The key findings of this study include: a set of central and peripheral indices, the evolution of the linkage structures over the 2002–2016 period and the linkage dynamics during times of market stress. Mainly, the set of indices possessing influence over the Asian region in general and the Indian market in particular is also identified. The findings of this study can be utilized in effective systemic risk management and for the selection of an optimally-diversified portfolio, resilient to system-level shocks.

  13. Macroeconomic dynamics, job market and income distribution during the 2003-2005 period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Héctor Luis Adriani

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The post-devaluation period (2003-2005 introduces a combination of changes and continuities in the socio-economic and territorial dynamics with respect to the Convertibility recession and crisis. An important recovery of the socio-economic activity in various areas, branches and businesses is noticed, though it does not directly correlate with the job market and poverty social indicators; nor does it even bring about substantial change in income distribution. In Argentina, these processes are seen in the uneven distribution of investments and of benefits reception generated by economic growth. This article aims at characterising this period by analysing the main socio-economic variables, at introducing the most significant debates around the changes and continuities concerning the Convertibility regime, and at accounting for the connections with the territory dynamics.

  14. Impact of unexpected events, shocking news, and rumors on foreign exchange market dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Mark; Suleman, Omer; Williams, Stacy; Howison, Sam; Johnson, Neil F.

    2008-04-01

    The dynamical response of a population of interconnected objects, when exposed to external perturbations, is of great interest to physicists working on complex systems. Here we focus on human systems, by analyzing the dynamical response of the world’s financial community to various types of unexpected events—including the 9/11 terrorist attacks as they unfolded on a minute-by-minute basis. For the unfolding events of 9/11, our results show that there was a gradual collective understanding of what was happening, rather than an immediate realization. More generally, we find that for news items which are not simple economic statements—and hence whose implications for the market are not immediately obvious—there are periods of collective discovery during which opinions seem to vary in a remarkably synchronized way.

  15. Is the Web Marketing Mix Sustainable in China? The Mediation Effect of Dynamic Trust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongrok Choi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Trust plays an important role between companies and customers in the online shopping environment because of the anonymous transaction environment and the advantage of virtual property. The most rapidly developing trend in Chinese e-business may come from Guanxi, a Chinese term for social trust. In this study, we define Guanxi as the dynamic trust process in the social decisions or activities of the Chinese. With increasing global attention on the outstanding development of Chinese e-business, it would be worthwhile to analyze the dynamic trust process of social e-commerce customers in close combination with the social network. The statistical results obtained using structural equation modeling (SEM show the importance of trust in a social e-commerce context. The direct positive relationship between the components of the web marketing mix and purchase intention is partially mediated by initial trust and ongoing trust, while initial trust only partially affects purchase intention through ongoing trust.

  16. The study of dynamic process of the triopoly games in chinese 3G telecommunication market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen Fang; Ma Junhai [Management Science and Project Department, School of Management, Tianjin university, Tianjin 300072 (China); Chen Xiaoqiang [Department of Agronomy, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin 300384 (China)], E-mail: avonchen@126.com

    2009-11-15

    At first, the paper described a brief history of communication in China. In 2008, the third generation (3G) telecommunication technologies began to develop. In Chinese 3G telecommunication market, there are three oligopolistic competitors. In order to study competing process of the triopoly, the paper considered a Bertrand model with bounded rational. A triopoly game is modeled by three nonlinear difference equations. By using the theory of bifurcations of dynamical systems, the existence and stability for the equilibria of this system were obtained. Numerical simulations were used to show bifurcations diagrams, the maximum Lyapunov exponent and sensitive dependence on initial conditions. We observed that increasing the speed of adjustment of bounded rational player might change the stability of Nash equilibrium point and cause bifurcation and chaos to occur. Thus, it will be difficult to make strategy and to forecast for each enterprise. It might cause the telecom markets to be irregular. The analysis and results in this paper are important for Chinese telecommunication markets, the same to mathematics.

  17. The study of dynamic process of the triopoly games in chinese 3G telecommunication market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Fang; Ma Junhai; Chen Xiaoqiang

    2009-01-01

    At first, the paper described a brief history of communication in China. In 2008, the third generation (3G) telecommunication technologies began to develop. In Chinese 3G telecommunication market, there are three oligopolistic competitors. In order to study competing process of the triopoly, the paper considered a Bertrand model with bounded rational. A triopoly game is modeled by three nonlinear difference equations. By using the theory of bifurcations of dynamical systems, the existence and stability for the equilibria of this system were obtained. Numerical simulations were used to show bifurcations diagrams, the maximum Lyapunov exponent and sensitive dependence on initial conditions. We observed that increasing the speed of adjustment of bounded rational player might change the stability of Nash equilibrium point and cause bifurcation and chaos to occur. Thus, it will be difficult to make strategy and to forecast for each enterprise. It might cause the telecom markets to be irregular. The analysis and results in this paper are important for Chinese telecommunication markets, the same to mathematics.

  18. Dynamic Game Analysis of Coal Electricity Market Involving Multi-Interests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xiaobao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The coal consumption of China reached 2.75 billion tons of standard coal in 2013, which accounted for 67.5% of total energy consumption and more than 50% of global coal consumption. Therefore, the impact of coal price is huge on coal market and even energy market in China. As a large consumer of coal, thermal power enterprise has a strong sensitivity to coal price. In order to balance the rising cost of enterprises due to coal price, we need to analyze the interests of multiple stakeholders. Firstly, this paper combined the Nash equilibrium and cobweb model and proposed the characteristics in different cobweb model. Then, for coal, power, and energy companies, the dynamic game analysis model is constructed. This model gives a game analysis in four scenarios and quantifies the decision of each stakeholder in different coal prices. Finally, the impact figure of different coal prices on each stakeholder has been drawn. The impacts of different coal or thermal power prices on different markets have been put forward, so relevant policy recommendations have been proposed combined with the cobweb model.

  19. Dynamic simulation of combined cycle power plant cycling in the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benato, A.; Bracco, S.; Stoppato, A.; Mirandola, A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The flexibility of traditional power plants have become of primary importance. • Three dynamic models of the same single pressure HRSG are built. • The plant dynamic behaviour is predicted. • A lifetime calculation procedure is proposed and tested. • The drum lifetime reduction is estimated. - Abstract: The energy markets deregulation coupled with the rapid spread of unpredictable energy sources power units are stressing the necessity of improving traditional power plants flexibility. Cyclic operation guarantees high profits in the short term but, in the medium-long time, cause a lifetime reduction due to thermo-mechanical fatigue, creep and corrosion. In this context, Combined Cycle Power Plants are the most concerned in flexible operation problems. For this reason, two research groups from two Italian universities have developed a procedure to estimate the devices lifetime reduction with a particular focus on steam drums and superheaters/reheaters. To assess the lifetime reduction, it is essential to predict the thermodynamic variables trend in order to describe the plant behaviour. Therefore, the core of the procedure is the power plant dynamic model. At this purpose, in this paper, three different dynamic models of the same single pressure Combined Cycle Gas Turbine are presented. The models have been built using three different approaches and are used to simulate plant behaviour under real operating conditions. Despite these differences, the thermodynamic parameters time profiles are in good accordance as presented in the paper. At last, an evaluation of the drum lifetime reduction is performed.

  20. The co-evolutionary dynamics of directed network of spin market agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Denis; Kuscsik, Zoltán; Gmitra, Martin

    2006-09-01

    The spin market model [S. Bornholdt, Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 12 (2001) 667] is generalized by employing co-evolutionary principles, where strategies of the interacting and competitive traders are represented by local and global couplings between the nodes of dynamic directed stochastic network. The co-evolutionary principles are applied in the frame of Bak-Sneppen self-organized dynamics [P. Bak, K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. Lett. 71 (1993) 4083] that includes the processes of selection and extinction actuated by the local (node) fitness. The local fitness is related to orientation of spin agent with respect to the instant magnetization. The stationary regime is formed due to the interplay of self-organization and adaptivity effects. The fat tailed distributions of log-price returns are identified numerically. The non-trivial model consequence is the evidence of the long time market memory indicated by the power-law range of the autocorrelation function of volatility with exponent smaller than one. The simulations yield network topology with broad-scale node degree distribution characterized by the range of exponents 1.3social networks.

  1. Analysis and Design of International Emission Trading Markets Applying System Dynamics Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Bo; Pickl, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    The design and analysis of international emission trading markets is an important actual challenge. Time-discrete models are needed to understand and optimize these procedures. We give an introduction into this scientific area and present actual modeling approaches. Furthermore, we develop a model which is embedded in a holistic problem solution. Measures for energy efficiency are characterized. The economic time-discrete "cap-and-trade" mechanism is influenced by various underlying anticipatory effects. With a systematic dynamic approach the effects can be examined. First numerical results show that fair international emissions trading can only be conducted with the use of protective export duties. Furthermore a comparatively high price which evokes emission reduction inevitably has an inhibiting effect on economic growth according to our model. As it always has been expected it is not without difficulty to find a balance between economic growth and emission reduction. It can be anticipated using our System Dynamics model simulation that substantial changes must be taken place before international emissions trading markets can contribute to global GHG emissions mitigation.

  2. Market transformation opportunities for emerging dynamic facade and dimmable lighting control systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eleanor S.; Selkowitz, Stephen E.; Hughes, Glenn D.; Thurm, David A.

    2004-06-04

    Automated shading and daylighting control systems have been commercially available for decades. The new challenge is to provide a fully functional and integrated fagade and lighting system that operates appropriately for all environmental conditions and meets a range of occupant subjective desires and objective performance requirements. These rigorous performance goals must be achieved with solutions that are cost effective and can operate over long periods with minimal maintenance. It will take time and effort to change the marketplace for these technologies and practices, particularly in building a series of documented success stories, and driving costs and risks to much lower levels at which their use becomes the norm. In recent years, the architectural trend toward highly-transparent all-glass buildings presents a unique challenge and opportunity to advance the market for emerging, smart, dynamic window and dimmable daylighting control technologies. We believe it is possible to accelerate product market transformation by developing projects where technical advances and the interests of motivated manufacturers and innovative owners converge. In this paper we present a case study example that explains a building owner's decision-making process to use dynamic window and dimmable daylighting controls. The case study project undertaken by a major building owner in partnership with a buildings R&D group was designed explicitly to use field test data in conjunction with the market influence of a major landmark building project in New York City to stimulate change in manufacturers' product offerings. Preliminary observations on the performance of these systems are made. A cost model that was developed with the building owner is explained.

  3. State and group dynamics of world stock market by principal component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobi, Ashadun; Lee, Jae Woo

    2016-05-01

    We study the dynamic interactions and structural changes by a principal component analysis (PCA) to cross-correlation coefficients of global financial indices in the years 1998-2012. The variances explained by the first PC increase with time and show a drastic change during the crisis. A sharp change in PC coefficient implies a transition of market state, a situation which occurs frequently in the American and Asian indices. However, the European indices remain stable over time. Using the first two PC coefficients, we identify indices that are similar and more strongly correlated than the others. We observe that the European indices form a robust group over the observation period. The dynamics of the individual indices within the group increase in similarity with time, and the dynamics of indices are more similar during the crises. Furthermore, the group formation of indices changes position in two-dimensional spaces due to crises. Finally, after a financial crisis, the difference of PCs between the European and American indices narrows.

  4. Analysis of the long-term availability of uranium: The influence of dynamic constraints and market competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monnet, Antoine; Gabriel, Sophie; Percebois, Jacques

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: The availability of natural uranium has a direct impact on the global capability to sustain the demand from nuclear power plants in the coming decades. Therefore, the expansion scenarios of nuclear power should be analysed in conjunction with long-term dynamics of the uranium market. This paper presents three forms of a partial-equilibrium model of the uranium market. All forms consider global demand as exogenous (input scenarios from the literature) and regional estimates of the quantities and the costs of ultimate resources (results obtained from previous work). The three forms differ by the market constraints and the market structure considered. Comparing them highlights the role of the market structure and the impact of some key parameters of the market dynamics on the long-term availability of uranium. An important finding is the influence of two constraints: the anticipation of demand and the significant role played by the correlation between price and exploration expenses in shaping the price trends. In addition, results from simulations highlight different long-term dynamics when the producers are allocated into a limited number of regions (to simulate an oligopoly) compared to a single region (undefined number of players to simulate perfect competition). - Highlights: • The growth rate of demand during the 21st century is a key driver of price trends. • Uncertainties on ultimate resources have a limited impact in expansion scenarios. • The price-exploration correlation is a first-order dynamic constraint. • The anticipation of demand is a strong dynamic constraint related to scarcity rent. • The uranium market is better represented by a constrained oligopoly.

  5. Transient dynamics in trial-offer markets with social influence: Trade-offs between appeal and quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altszyler, Edgar; Berbeglia, Franco; Berbeglia, Gerardo; Van Hentenryck, Pascal

    2017-01-01

    We study a trial-offer market where consumers may purchase one of two competing products. Consumer preferences are affected by the products quality, their appeal, and their popularity. While the asymptotic convergence or stationary states of these, and related dynamical systems, has been vastly studied, the literature regarding the transitory dynamics remains surprisingly sparse. To fill this gap, we derive a system of Ordinary Differential Equations, which is solved exactly to gain insight into the roles played by product qualities and appeals in the market behavior. We observe a logarithmic tradeoff between quality and appeal for medium and long-term marketing strategies: The expected market shares remain constant if a decrease in quality is followed by an exponential increase in the product appeal. However, for short time horizons, the trade-off is linear. Finally, we study the variability of the dynamics through Monte Carlo simulations and discover that low appeals may result in high levels of variability. The model results suggest effective marketing strategies for short and long time horizons and emphasize the significance of advertising early in the market life to increase sales and predictability.

  6. Transient dynamics in trial-offer markets with social influence: Trade-offs between appeal and quality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Altszyler

    Full Text Available We study a trial-offer market where consumers may purchase one of two competing products. Consumer preferences are affected by the products quality, their appeal, and their popularity. While the asymptotic convergence or stationary states of these, and related dynamical systems, has been vastly studied, the literature regarding the transitory dynamics remains surprisingly sparse. To fill this gap, we derive a system of Ordinary Differential Equations, which is solved exactly to gain insight into the roles played by product qualities and appeals in the market behavior. We observe a logarithmic tradeoff between quality and appeal for medium and long-term marketing strategies: The expected market shares remain constant if a decrease in quality is followed by an exponential increase in the product appeal. However, for short time horizons, the trade-off is linear. Finally, we study the variability of the dynamics through Monte Carlo simulations and discover that low appeals may result in high levels of variability. The model results suggest effective marketing strategies for short and long time horizons and emphasize the significance of advertising early in the market life to increase sales and predictability.

  7. Transient dynamics in trial-offer markets with social influence: Trade-offs between appeal and quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altszyler, Edgar; Berbeglia, Franco; Van Hentenryck, Pascal

    2017-01-01

    We study a trial-offer market where consumers may purchase one of two competing products. Consumer preferences are affected by the products quality, their appeal, and their popularity. While the asymptotic convergence or stationary states of these, and related dynamical systems, has been vastly studied, the literature regarding the transitory dynamics remains surprisingly sparse. To fill this gap, we derive a system of Ordinary Differential Equations, which is solved exactly to gain insight into the roles played by product qualities and appeals in the market behavior. We observe a logarithmic tradeoff between quality and appeal for medium and long-term marketing strategies: The expected market shares remain constant if a decrease in quality is followed by an exponential increase in the product appeal. However, for short time horizons, the trade-off is linear. Finally, we study the variability of the dynamics through Monte Carlo simulations and discover that low appeals may result in high levels of variability. The model results suggest effective marketing strategies for short and long time horizons and emphasize the significance of advertising early in the market life to increase sales and predictability. PMID:28746334

  8. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  9. Long-term dynamics of investment decisions in electricity markets with variable renewables development and adequacy objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petitet, Marie

    2016-01-01

    In liberalised electricity systems, power markets are expected to ensure the long-term coordination of investments in order to guarantee security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness. In the reference energy-only market, it relies on the ability of power markets - where the hourly price is aligned with the marginal cost of the system - to provide an adequate price-signal for investors. However, in practice, questions have been raised about its ability to trigger investments in Low-Carbon Technologies (LCT) including in particular Renewable Energy Sources of Electricity (RES-E), and its ability to ensure capacity adequacy. After a characterisation of these market failures, this dissertation tackles the two research topics within a methodological framework based on a System Dynamics model developed to simulate private investment decisions in power markets. First, the results show that substituting out-of-market support mechanisms for RES-E by market-based investments helped by the sole implementation of a carbon price appears as a feasible solution to trigger RES-E development providing that there is a political commitment on a high carbon price. Second, it also appears that the energy-only market with price cap is ineffective to ensure capacity adequacy in a context of mature markets with conventional thermal power plants under transition paths which involve a stable electricity demand thank to energy efficiency efforts and the exogenous development of RES-E thanks to support mechanisms in the absence of a high and fixed carbon price. Adding a capacity market or removing the price cap both bring benefits in terms of Loss Of Load Expectation (LOLE) and social welfare. Moreover, considering two various energy transition scenarios and different assumptions about the risk aversion of private investors, the capacity market is identified as the best option for regulators among the considered market designs. (author) [fr

  10. Intervening in global markets to improve access to HIV/AIDS treatment: an analysis of international policies and the dynamics of global antiretroviral medicines markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hochstadt Jenny

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Universal access to antiretroviral therapy (ART in low- and middle-income countries faces numerous challenges: increasing numbers of people needing ART, new guidelines recommending more expensive antiretroviral (ARV medicines, limited financing, and few fixed-dose combination (FDC products. Global initiatives aim to promote efficient global ARV markets, yet little is known about market dynamics and the impact of global policy interventions. Methods We utilize several data sources, including 12,958 donor-funded, adult first-line ARV purchase transactions, to describe the market from 2002-2008. We examine relationships between market trends and: World Health Organization (WHO HIV/AIDS treatment guidelines; WHO Prequalification Programme (WHO Prequal and United States (US Food and Drug Administration (FDA approvals; and procurement policies of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR and UNITAID. Results WHO recommended 7, 4, 24, and 6 first-line regimens in 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2009 guidelines, respectively. 2009 guidelines replaced a stavudine-based regimen ($88/person/year with more expensive zidovudine- ($154-260/person/year or tenofovir-based ($244-465/person/year regimens. Purchase volumes for ARVs newly-recommended in 2006 (emtricitabine, tenofovir increased >15-fold from 2006 to 2008. Twenty-four generic FDCs were quality-approved for older regimens but only four for newer regimens. Generic FDCs were available to GFATM recipients in 2004 but to PEPFAR recipients only after FDA approval in 2006. Price trends for single-component generic medicines mirrored generic FDC prices. Two large-scale purchasers, PEPFAR and UNITAID, together accounted for 53%, 84%, and 77% of market volume for abacavir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir, respectively, in 2008. PEPFAR and UNITAID purchases were often split across two manufacturers. Conclusions Global initiatives

  11. Intervening in global markets to improve access to HIV/AIDS treatment: an analysis of international policies and the dynamics of global antiretroviral medicines markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waning, Brenda; Kyle, Margaret; Diedrichsen, Ellen; Soucy, Lyne; Hochstadt, Jenny; Bärnighausen, Till; Moon, Suerie

    2010-05-25

    Universal access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries faces numerous challenges: increasing numbers of people needing ART, new guidelines recommending more expensive antiretroviral (ARV) medicines, limited financing, and few fixed-dose combination (FDC) products. Global initiatives aim to promote efficient global ARV markets, yet little is known about market dynamics and the impact of global policy interventions. We utilize several data sources, including 12,958 donor-funded, adult first-line ARV purchase transactions, to describe the market from 2002-2008. We examine relationships between market trends and: World Health Organization (WHO) HIV/AIDS treatment guidelines; WHO Prequalification Programme (WHO Prequal) and United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals; and procurement policies of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM), US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and UNITAID. WHO recommended 7, 4, 24, and 6 first-line regimens in 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2009 guidelines, respectively. 2009 guidelines replaced a stavudine-based regimen ($88/person/year) with more expensive zidovudine- ($154-260/person/year) or tenofovir-based ($244-465/person/year) regimens. Purchase volumes for ARVs newly-recommended in 2006 (emtricitabine, tenofovir) increased >15-fold from 2006 to 2008. Twenty-four generic FDCs were quality-approved for older regimens but only four for newer regimens. Generic FDCs were available to GFATM recipients in 2004 but to PEPFAR recipients only after FDA approval in 2006. Price trends for single-component generic medicines mirrored generic FDC prices. Two large-scale purchasers, PEPFAR and UNITAID, together accounted for 53%, 84%, and 77% of market volume for abacavir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir, respectively, in 2008. PEPFAR and UNITAID purchases were often split across two manufacturers. Global initiatives facilitated the creation of fairly efficient markets

  12. A multi-objective framework for dynamic transmission expansion planning in competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foroud, Asghar Akbari; Abdoos, Ali Akbar; Keypour, Reza; Amirahmadi, Meisam

    2010-01-01

    Restructuring of power system has changed the traditional planning objectives and introduced challenges in the field of Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP). Due to these changes, new approaches and criteria are needed for transmission planning in deregulated environment. Therefore, in this paper, a dynamic expansion methodology is presented using a multi-objective optimization framework. Investment cost, congestion cost and reliability are considered in the optimization as three objectives. To overcome the difficulties in solving the non-convex and mixed integer nature of the optimization problems, a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA II) approach is used followed by a fuzzy decision making analysis to obtain the final optimal solution. The planning methodology has been demonstrated on the IEEE 24-bus test system and north-east of Iran national 400 kV transmission grid to show the feasibility and capabilities of the proposed algorithm in electricity market environment. (author)

  13. Elements of decisional dynamics: An agent-based approach applied to artificial financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Iris; Cotsaftis, Michel; Bertelle, Cyrille

    2018-02-01

    This paper introduces an original mathematical description for describing agents' decision-making process in the case of problems affected by both individual and collective behaviors in systems characterized by nonlinear, path dependent, and self-organizing interactions. An application to artificial financial markets is proposed by designing a multi-agent system based on the proposed formalization. In this application, agents' decision-making process is based on fuzzy logic rules and the price dynamics is purely deterministic according to the basic matching rules of a central order book. Finally, while putting most parameters under evolutionary control, the computational agent-based system is able to replicate several stylized facts of financial time series (distributions of stock returns showing a heavy tail with positive excess kurtosis, absence of autocorrelations in stock returns, and volatility clustering phenomenon).

  14. Can the dynamics of the term structure of petroleum futures be forecasted? Evidence from major markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skiadopoulos, George; Chantziara, Thalia

    2008-01-01

    We investigate whether the daily evolution of the term structure of petroleum futures can be forecasted. To this end, the principal components analysis is employed. The retained principal components describe the dynamics of the term structure of futures prices parsimoniously and are used to forecast the subsequent daily changes of futures prices. Data on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) crude oil futures are used. We find that the retained principal components have small forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Similar results are obtained from standard univariate and vector autoregression models. Spillover effects between the four petroleum futures markets are also detected. (author)

  15. Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Li, Bingxin

    2016-01-01

    Options on crude oil futures are the most actively traded commodity options. We develop a class of computationally efficient discrete-time jump models that allow for closed-form option valuation, and we use crude oil futures and options data to investigate the economic importance of jumps...... and dynamic jump intensities in these markets. Allowing for jumps is crucial for modeling crude oil futures and futures options, and we find evidence in favor of time-varying jump intensities. During crisis periods, jumps occur more frequently. The properties of the jump processes implied by the option data...... differ from those implied by the futures data, which may be due to improved parameter identification....

  16. A Two-Stage Method to Determine Optimal Product Sampling considering Dynamic Potential Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhineng; Lu, Wei; Han, Bing

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops an optimization model for the diffusion effects of free samples under dynamic changes in potential market based on the characteristics of independent product and presents a two-stage method to figure out the sampling level. The impact analysis of the key factors on the sampling level shows that the increase of the external coefficient or internal coefficient has a negative influence on the sampling level. And the changing rate of the potential market has no significant influence on the sampling level whereas the repeat purchase has a positive one. Using logistic analysis and regression analysis, the global sensitivity analysis gives a whole analysis of the interaction of all parameters, which provides a two-stage method to estimate the impact of the relevant parameters in the case of inaccuracy of the parameters and to be able to construct a 95% confidence interval for the predicted sampling level. Finally, the paper provides the operational steps to improve the accuracy of the parameter estimation and an innovational way to estimate the sampling level. PMID:25821847

  17. Dynamic consistency of leader/fringe models of exhaustible resource markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelot, R.P.

    1990-01-01

    A dynamic feedback pricing model is developed for a leader/fringe supply market of exhaustible resources. The discrete game optimization model includes marginal costs which may be quadratic functions of cumulative production, a linear demand curve and variable length periods. The multiperiod formulation is based on the nesting of later periods' Kuhn-Tucker conditions into earlier periods' optimizations. This procedure leads to dynamically consistent solutions where the leader's strategy is credible as he has no incentive to alter his original plan at some later stage. A static leader-fringe model may yield multiple local optima. This can result in the leader forcing the fringe to produce at their capacity constraint, which would otherwise be non-binding if it is greater than the fringe's unconstrained optimal production rate. Conditions are developed where the optimal solution occurs at a corner where constraints meet, of which limit pricing is a special case. The 2-period leader/fringe feedback model is compared to the computationally simpler open-loop model. Under certain conditions, the open-loop model yields the same result as the feedback model. A multiperiod feedback model of the world oil market with OPEC as price-leader and the remaining world oil suppliers comprising the fringe is compared with the open-loop solution. The optimal profits and prices are very similar, but large differences in production rates may occur. The exhaustion date predicted by the open-loop model may also differ from the feedback outcome. Some numerical tests result in non-contiguous production periods for a player or limit pricing phases. 85 refs., 60 figs., 30 tabs

  18. Dynamic Model of Islamic Hybrid Securities: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia Islamic Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaafar Pyeman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Capital structure selection is fundamentally important in corporate financial management as it influence on mutually return and risk to stakeholders. Despite of Malaysia’s position as one of the major players of Islamic Financial Market, there are still lack of studies has been conducted on the capital structure of shariah compliant firms especially related to hybrid securities. The objective of this study is to determine the hybrid securities issuance model among the shariah compliant firms in Malaysia. As such, this study is to expand the literature review by providing comprehensive analysis on the hybrid capital structure and to develop dynamic Islamic hybrid securities model for shariah compliant firms. We use panel data of 50 companies that have been issuing the hybrid securities from the year of 2004- 2012. The outcomes of the studies are based on the dynamic model GMM estimation for the determinants of hybrid securities. Based on our model, risk and growth are considered as the most determinant factors for issuing convertible bond and loan stock. These results suggest that, the firms that have high risk but having good growth prospect will choose hybrid securities of convertible bond. The model also support the backdoor equity listing hypothesis by Stein (1992 where the hybrid securities enable the profitable firms to venture into positive NPV project by issuing convertible bond as it offer lower coupon rate as compare to the normal debt rate

  19. The complexity of an investment competition dynamical model with imperfect information in a security market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Baogui; Ma Junhai; Gao Qin

    2009-01-01

    We present a nonlinear discrete dynamical model of investment competition with imperfect information for N heterogeneous oligopolists in a security market. In this paper, our focus is on a given three-dimensional model which exhibits highly rich dynamical behaviors. Based on Wen's Hopf bifurcation criterion [Wen GL. Criterion to identify Hopf bifurcations in maps of arbitrary dimension. Phys Rev E 2005;72:026201-3; Wen GL, Xu DL, Han X. On creation of Hopf bifurcations in discrete-time nonlinear systems. Chaos 2002;12(2):350-5] and Kuznetsov's normal form theory [Kuznetsov YA. Elements of applied bifurcation theory. New York: Springer-Verlag; 1998. p. 125-37], we study the model's stability, criterion and direction of Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. Moreover, we numerically simulate a complexity evolution route: fixed point, closed invariant curve, double closed invariant curves, fourfold closed invariant curves, strange attractor, period-3 closed invariant curve, period-3 2-tours, period-4 closed invariant curve, period-4 2-tours.

  20. Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sung Wook

    This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

  1. Promoting the Sustainable Building Market: an Evolution Analysis and System Dynamics Simulation on Behaviors of Real Estate Developers and Government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli Xie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Chinese government takes measures to promote the development of green building (GB. But until 2013, there are only few green buildings in China. The real estate developers are skeptical in entering GB market, which requires theories to explain developers and government’s behaviors.Design/methodology/approach: In this study, we attempt Evolutionary game theory and System dynamics (SD into the analysis. A system dynamics model is built for studying evolutionary games between the government and developers in greening building decision making.Findings and Originality/value: The results of mixed-strategy stability analysis and SD simulation show that evolutionary equilibrium does not exist with a static government incentive. Therefore, a dynamical incentive is suggested in the SD model for promoting the green building market. The symmetric game and asymmetric game between two developers show, if the primary proportion who choose GB strategy is lower, all the group in game may finally evolve to GB strategy. In this case and in this time, the government should take measures to encourage developers to enter into the GB market. If the proportion who choose GB strategy is high enough, the government should gradually cancel or reduce those incentive measure.Research limitations/implications: an Evolution Analysis and System Dynamics Simulation on Behaviors of Real Estate Developers and Government could give some advice for the government to promote the green building market.

  2. Value-Chain Dynamics of the West Point Foundry, 1817-1911: A Historical Case Analysis in Marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkus, Ed, Jr.

    2013-01-01

    This case provides the opportunity for students to explore marketing and value/supply-chain dynamics in a unique historical context. The West Point Foundry (WPF), located in Cold Spring, New York, was one of the most important manufacturing ventures in the United States from 1817 to 1911. The case outlines the supply-chain details of the WPF as…

  3. Risk-constrained dynamic self-scheduling of a pumped-storage plant in the energy and ancillary service markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazempour, S. Jalal; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Haghifam, M.R.; Yousefi, G.R.

    2009-01-01

    This work addresses a new framework for self-scheduling of an individual price-taker pumped-storage plant in a day-ahead (DA) market. The goal is achieving the best trade-off between the expected profit and the risks when the plant participates in DA energy, spinning reserve and regulation markets. In this paper, a set of uncertainties including price forecasting errors and also the uncertainty of power delivery requests in the ancillary service markets are contemplated. Considering these uncertainties, a new approach is proposed which is called dynamic self-scheduling (DSS). This risk-constrained dynamic self-scheduling problem is therefore formulated and solved as a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem. Numerical results for a case study are discussed. (author)

  4. A system dynamics analysis of the Nordic electricity market: The transition from fossil fuelled toward a renewable supply within a liberalized electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogstad, Klaus-Ole

    2005-07-01

    A system dynamic model to analyze long-term versus short-term implications of various energy policies within the context of the Nordic electricity market has been developed. The model itself provides a theory of the development of the Nordic electricity market in response to various energy policies, both in the long and the short term. The model includes generation scheduling, demand, price formation, investment decisions, resource availability and to some extent technology progress as endogenous. Thus, explanations of the model behaviour can be found from within the model. As examples of use, the model/modelling concept addresses two important questions on the energy policy agenda. First the marginal C02-emission controversy has been study, whether building gas power in Norway increase or reduce Nordic C02-emissions. The results were that in the short run, some emission reductions can be obtained due to substitution of existing coal units by operations of the market, but this effect was found to be modest. Existing gas power is also substituted, plus some bio. In the long run, there are also some investment substitutions of renewables. These effects do not appear to be significant in the short run, but in the long run, the investment rate of renewables is reduced as a consequence of reduced prices from gas. The reduced investments in renewables results in increased emissions. Some increase in demand is also to be expected from adding gas power, due to price-elasticity of demand. The net result is that gas power is likely to increase C02-emissions, which contradicts the current belief as well as results from other electricity market models that omit the long-term mechanisms such as investment decisions and technology progress. The second study analyzed the current Swedish TGC market at the time of the introduction. The purpose was to assist market design. It was found that the current Swedish TGC market design is likely to crash, due to the slow adjustment of the

  5. A system dynamics analysis of the Nordic electricity market: The transition from fossil fuelled toward a renewable supply within a liberalized electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogstad, Klaus-Ole

    2005-01-01

    A system dynamic model to analyze long-term versus short-term implications of various energy policies within the context of the Nordic electricity market has been developed. The model itself provides a theory of the development of the Nordic electricity market in response to various energy policies, both in the long and the short term. The model includes generation scheduling, demand, price formation, investment decisions, resource availability and to some extent technology progress as endogenous. Thus, explanations of the model behaviour can be found from within the model. As examples of use, the model/modelling concept addresses two important questions on the energy policy agenda. First the marginal C02-emission controversy has been study, whether building gas power in Norway increase or reduce Nordic C02-emissions. The results were that in the short run, some emission reductions can be obtained due to substitution of existing coal units by operations of the market, but this effect was found to be modest. Existing gas power is also substituted, plus some bio. In the long run, there are also some investment substitutions of renewables. These effects do not appear to be significant in the short run, but in the long run, the investment rate of renewables is reduced as a consequence of reduced prices from gas. The reduced investments in renewables results in increased emissions. Some increase in demand is also to be expected from adding gas power, due to price-elasticity of demand. The net result is that gas power is likely to increase C02-emissions, which contradicts the current belief as well as results from other electricity market models that omit the long-term mechanisms such as investment decisions and technology progress. The second study analyzed the current Swedish TGC market at the time of the introduction. The purpose was to assist market design. It was found that the current Swedish TGC market design is likely to crash, due to the slow adjustment of the

  6. Real and financial market interactions in a multiplier-accelerator model: Nonlinear dynamics, multistability and stylized facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, F.; Naimzada, A.; Pecora, N.

    2017-10-01

    In the present paper, we investigate the dynamics of a model in which the real part of the economy, described within a multiplier-accelerator framework, interacts with a financial market with heterogeneous speculators, in order to study the channels through which the two sectors influence each other. Employing analytical and numerical tools, we investigate stability conditions as well as bifurcations and possible periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic dynamics, enlightening how the degree of market interaction, together with the accelerator parameter and the intervention of the fiscal authority, may affect the business cycle and the course of the financial market. In particular, we show that even if the steady state is locally stable, multistability phenomena can occur, with several and complex dynamic structures coexisting with the steady state. Finally, simulations reveal that the proposed model is able to explain several statistical properties and stylized facts observed in real financial markets, including persistent high volatility, fat-tailed return distributions, volatility clustering, and positive autocorrelation of absolute returns.

  7. Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmi Erdem Aktuğ

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on five major emerging markets, I investigate the interactions between credit default swap premiums, foreign exchange rates, local currency government bond spreads, and national stock market returns over the period 4/2/2007 to 8/27/2009. Empirical analysis indicates that bond markets, along with foreign exchange markets, were very dominant in the price discovery process during a common distressed period.

  8. Dynamic Customer Management and the Value of One-to-One Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Romana Khan; Michael Lewis; Vishal Singh

    2009-01-01

    The concept of one-to-one marketing is intuitively appealing, but there is little research that investigates the value of individual-level marketing relative to segment-level or mass marketing. In this paper, we investigate the financial benefits of and computational challenges involved in one-to-one marketing. The analysis uses data from an online grocery and drug retailer. Like many retailers, this firm uses multiple promotional instruments including discount coupons, free shipping offers, ...

  9. Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraussl, R.G.W.

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets. With an index of speculative market pressure it is analyzed whether sovereign ratings changes have an impact on the financial stability in emerging market economies. The event study analysis indicates that

  10. Improved Methods for Predicting Property Prices in Hazard Prone Dynamic Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Koning, Koen; Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung

    Property prices are affected by changing market conditions, incomes and preferences of people. Price trends in natural hazard zones may shift significantly and abruptly after a disaster signalling structural systemic changes in property markets. It challenges accurate market assessments of property

  11. REASONS AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE WORLD AGRICULTURAL MARKET BAD PRICE DYNAMICS THREATS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Grodzievskaya

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article is about main threats of the bad price dynamics on the world agricultural market for agriculture producers. Scientific point of view on the risks is considered. Mostly theoretical point of view allows understanding how deep and wide scientists could research this problem. Author considers reasons of this menaces and ways out, how to avoid or estimate the rate of undesirable consequences for agriculture producers and agriculture price conjuncture. Researcher distinguishes several main reasons of the agriculture threats among them: production, finance, inflation and conjuncture fluctuation. In this article readers can find new ideas for governmental way to operate risky and low informative level situations in agricultural sphere. Researchers can use structural approach of the risk identification due to the scheme of risks realization reasons. Also few formulas provided for cybernetic way to research this problem. Scientist proposes ways for neutralization threats, among them are: adaptation, insurance, spends minimization, etc. Author analyzes Ukrainian agricultural tendencies in the last decades and draws a conclusion for socio-economic trend in witch modern world economy moves.

  12. Dynamic of consumer groups and response of commodity markets by principal component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobi, Ashadun; Alam, Shafiqul; Lee, Jae Woo

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates financial states and group dynamics by applying principal component analysis to the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns of commodity futures. The eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix in the 6-month timeframe displays similar values during 2010-2011, but decline following 2012. A sharp drop in eigenvalue implies the significant change of the market state. Three commodity sectors, energy, metals and agriculture, are projected into two dimensional spaces consisting of two principal components (PC). We observe that they form three distinct clusters in relation to various sectors. However, commodities with distinct features have intermingled with one another and scattered during severe crises, such as the European sovereign debt crises. We observe the notable change of the position of two dimensional spaces of groups during financial crises. By considering the first principal component (PC1) within the 6-month moving timeframe, we observe that commodities of the same group change states in a similar pattern, and the change of states of one group can be used as a warning for other group.

  13. Coordinating two-period ordering and advertising policies in a dynamic market with stochastic demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junping; Wang, Shengdong; Min, Jie

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we study the optimal two-stage advertising and ordering policies and the channel coordination issues in a supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. The manufacturer sells a short-life-cycle product through the retailer facing stochastic demand in dynamic markets characterised by price declines and product obsolescence. Following a two-period newsvendor framework, we develop two members' optimal ordering and advertising models under both the centralised and decentralised settings, and present the closed-form solutions to the developed models as well. Moreover, we design a two-period revenue-sharing contract, and develop sufficient conditions such that the channel coordination can be achieved and a win-win outcome can be guaranteed. Our analysis suggests that the centralised decision creates an incentive for the retailer to increase the advertising investments in two periods and put the purchase forward, but the decentralised decision mechanism forces the retailer to decrease the advertising investments in two periods and postpone/reduce its purchase in the first period. This phenomenon becomes more evident when demand variability is high.

  14. Dynamic Fuzzy Clustering Method for Decision Support in Electricity Markets Negotiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo FAIA

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Artificial Intelligence (AI methods contribute to the construction of systems where there is a need to automate the tasks. They are typically used for problems that have a large response time, or when a mathematical method cannot be used to solve the problem. However, the application of AI brings an added complexity to the development of such applications. AI has been frequently applied in the power systems field, namely in Electricity Markets (EM. In this area, AI applications are essentially used to forecast / estimate the prices of electricity or to search for the best opportunity to sell the product. This paper proposes a clustering methodology that is combined with fuzzy logic in order to perform the estimation of EM prices. The proposed method is based on the application of a clustering methodology that groups historic energy contracts according to their prices’ similarity. The optimal number of groups is automatically calculated taking into account the preference for the balance between the estimation error and the number of groups. The centroids of each cluster are used to define a dynamic fuzzy variable that approximates the tendency of contracts’ history. The resulting fuzzy variable allows estimating expected prices for contracts instantaneously and approximating missing values in the historic contracts.

  15. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  16. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  17. Marketing marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Karel Jan van Alsem

    2013-01-01

    In deze installatierede betoogt Karel Jan Alsem dat marketing een grotere strategische rol in organisaties zou moeten krijgen. Want marketing is bij uitstek de verbinding tussen klantwensen en het DNA van een organisatie. Doordat merken gemiddeld voor mensen niet heel belangrijk zijn, is goede

  18. Generation of predictive price and trading volume patterns in a model of dynamically evolving free market supply and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Wang

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available I present a model of stock market price fluctuations incorporating effects of share supply as a history-dependent function of previous purchases and share demand as a function of price deviation from moving averages. Price charts generated show intervals of oscillations switching amplitude and frequency suddenly in time, forming price and trading volume patterns well-known in market technical analysis. Ultimate price trends agree with traditional predictions for specific patterns. The consideration of dynamically evolving supply and demand in this model resolves the apparent contradiction with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: perceptions of imprecise equity values by a world of investors evolve over non-negligible periods of time, with dependence on price history.

  19. Causal Dynamic Relationships between Political–Economic Factors and Export Performance in the Renewable Energy Technologies Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bongsuk Sung

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study explores how political–economic forces could affect export performance in the renewable energy technologies market. We conduct panel framework analyses to verify the characteristics of panel data for 19 countries before establishing the panel estimator meant to test the effects of political–economic forces on export specialization. We consider the results of the panel framework analyses and develop an empirical model to test casual dynamic relationships between political–economic forces and export performance. The results from the least squares dummy variable-corrected estimation indicate that the major factors promoting the export specialization of renewable energy technologies are, in order of decreasing importance, public pressure, market size, and government demand-pull policy. However, the traditional energy industry has no significant effect on export performance. Finally, this study finds that dynamic effects exist in all estimations.

  20. Profit maximization algorithms for utility companies in an oligopolistic energy market with dynamic prices and intelligent users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiansong Cui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic energy pricing provides a promising solution for the utility companies to incentivize energy users to perform demand side management in order to minimize their electric bills. Moreover, the emerging decentralized smart grid, which is a likely infrastructure scenario for future electrical power networks, allows energy consumers to select their energy provider from among multiple utility companies in any billing period. This paper thus starts by considering an oligopolistic energy market with multiple non-cooperative (competitive utility companies, and addresses the problem of determining dynamic energy prices for every utility company in this market based on a modified Bertrand Competition Model of user behaviors. Two methods of dynamic energy pricing are proposed for a utility company to maximize its total profit. The first method finds the greatest lower bound on the total profit that can be achieved by the utility company, whereas the second method finds the best response of a utility company to dynamic pricing policies that the other companies have adopted in previous billing periods. To exploit the advantages of each method while compensating their shortcomings, an adaptive dynamic pricing policy is proposed based on a machine learning technique, which finds a good balance between invocations of the two aforesaid methods. Experimental results show that the adaptive policy results in consistently high profit for the utility company no matter what policies are employed by the other companies.

  1. Internal Migration, Regional Labour Market Dynamics and Implications for German East-West Disparities – Results from a Panel VAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alecke, Björn; Mitze, Timo; Untiedt, Gerhard

    This paper analyses the causal linkages between regional labour market variables and internal migration flows among German states between 1991–2006. We adopt a Panel VAR approach to identify the feedback effects among the variables and analyse the dynamic properties of the system through impulser......This paper analyses the causal linkages between regional labour market variables and internal migration flows among German states between 1991–2006. We adopt a Panel VAR approach to identify the feedback effects among the variables and analyse the dynamic properties of the system through...... impulseresponse functions.We also use the model to track the evolution of the particular East-West migration since re-unification aiming to shed more light on the East German “empirical puzzle”, characterized by lower migration responses than expected from the regional labour market position relative to the West......:That is, along with a second wave of East-West movements around 2001 net flows out of East Germany were much higher than expected after controlling for its weak labour market and macroeconomic performance. Since this second wave is also accompanied by a gradual fading out of economic distortions...

  2. Strategy Dynamics through a Demand-Based Lens: The Evolution of Market Boundaries, Resource Rents and Competitive Positions

    OpenAIRE

    Adner, Ron; Zemsky, Peter

    2003-01-01

    We develop a novel approach to the dynamics of business strategy that is grounded in an explicit treatment of consumer choice when technologies improve over time. We address the evolution of market boundaries, resource rents and competitive positions by adapting models of competition with differentiated products. Our model is consistent with the central strategy assertion that competitive interactions are governed by superior value creation and competitive advantage. More importantly, it show...

  3. A Dynamic Model of U.S. Sugar-Related Markets: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Babula, Ronald A.; Newman, Douglas; Rogowsky, Robert A.

    2006-01-01

    The methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) model are applied to monthly U.S. markets for sugar and for sugar-using markets for confectionary, soft drink, and bakery products. Primarily a methods paper, we apply Johansen and Juselius' advanced procedures to these markets for perhaps the first time, with focus on achievement of a statistically adequate model through analysis of a battery of advanced statistical diagnostic tests and on exploitation of the system's cointegration ...

  4. Spatial Price Discovery, Dynamics, and Leadership in Evolving Distiller’s Grain Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Van Winkle, Tyler W.; Schroeder, Ted C.

    2008-01-01

    Recent dramatic growth in corn-based bio-refining has generated considerable growth in the by-product of this process, distiller’s grains. Distiller’s grains are rapidly becoming important livestock feed ingredient sources. However, little public market information is available on distiller’s grain. This study determines spatial and temporal price relationships among distiller’s grain markets. Results indicate spatial distiller’s grain markets operate somewhat independently suggesting potenti...

  5. Entry into new markets: the development of the business model and dynamic capabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Wolowski Kenski

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This work shows the path through which companies enter new markets or bring new propositions to established ones. It presents the market analysis process, the strategical decisions that determine the company’s position on it and the required changes in the configurations for this new action. It also studies the process of selecting the business model and the conditions for its definition the adoption and subsequent development of resources and capabilities required to conquer this new market. It is presented the necessary conditions to remain and maintain its market position. These concepts are presented through a case study of a business group that takes part in different franchises.

  6. The spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the implied market information and characteristics of the correlation coefficient matrix of the international crude oil price returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian, Lixin; Ding, Zhenqi; Zhen, Zaili; Wang, Minggang

    2016-01-01

    The international crude oil market plays a crucial role in economies, and the studies of the correlation, risk and synchronization of the international crude oil market have important implications for the security and stability of the country, avoidance of business risk and people's daily lives. We investigate the information and characteristics of the international crude oil market (1999-2015) based on the random matrix theory (RMT). Firstly, we identify richer information in the largest eigenvalues deviating from RMT predictions for the international crude oil market; the international crude oil market can be roughly divided into ten different periods by the methods of eigenvectors and characteristic combination, and the implied market information of the correlation coefficient matrix is advanced. Secondly, we study the characteristics of the international crude oil market by the methods of system risk entropy, dynamic synchronous ratio, dynamic non-synchronous ratio and dynamic clustering algorithm. The results show that the international crude oil market is full of risk. The synchronization of the international crude oil market is very strong, and WTI and Brent occupy a very important position in the international crude oil market. (orig.)

  7. The spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the implied market information and characteristics of the correlation coefficient matrix of the international crude oil price returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Lixin [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Ding, Zhenqi; Zhen, Zaili [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Wang, Minggang [Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

    2016-08-15

    The international crude oil market plays a crucial role in economies, and the studies of the correlation, risk and synchronization of the international crude oil market have important implications for the security and stability of the country, avoidance of business risk and people's daily lives. We investigate the information and characteristics of the international crude oil market (1999-2015) based on the random matrix theory (RMT). Firstly, we identify richer information in the largest eigenvalues deviating from RMT predictions for the international crude oil market; the international crude oil market can be roughly divided into ten different periods by the methods of eigenvectors and characteristic combination, and the implied market information of the correlation coefficient matrix is advanced. Secondly, we study the characteristics of the international crude oil market by the methods of system risk entropy, dynamic synchronous ratio, dynamic non-synchronous ratio and dynamic clustering algorithm. The results show that the international crude oil market is full of risk. The synchronization of the international crude oil market is very strong, and WTI and Brent occupy a very important position in the international crude oil market. (orig.)

  8. Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xue-Zhong; Li, Kai; Wang, Chuncheng

    2018-05-01

    By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general.

  9. Understanding complex dynamics in derivatives finance: why do options markets smile?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qiu, G.; Kandhai, D.; Johnson, N.F.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2012-01-01

    The origin of the volatility smile phenomenon observed in options markets has eluded the financial world for more than two decades. We provide a new explanation of this phenomenon using a microscopic multi-agent description of markets. In our model individual trading behavior is explicitly included

  10. Monti and market dynamics: the strategy of a national car importer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koolen, S.; Taminiau, Y.T.A.; Faber, C.W.

    2005-01-01

    In 2002 Mario Monti, the European Competition Commissioner (in the period 1999-2004), concluded that there was not enough competition in the European market for the distribution of cars and spare parts. Consumers were not getting enough benefit from the internal European market. Now that

  11. Dynamic competition and enterprising discovery: Kirzner’s market process theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet İhsan KAYA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Market process theory is designed by the followers of Austrian School tradition as an alternative to neo-classic price theory in order to explain perceptible markets. Contrary to neo-classic economy which focuses on the concept of equilibrium, market process theory seeks to explore unequilibrium and direction to equilibrium. While doing so, the role of enterprenuer in dealing with limited information which is not taken into consideration in the price theory of neo-classic economy, uncertainty because of time and uncertainty which occurs in market underpins Israel Kirzner's analyses. In the study, Kirzner's competition and enterpreneurship theory is discussed with the contributions of Mises and Hayek. The study constitutes an introduction to market process theory of Kirzner.

  12. Socioeconomic dynamic in market practices of family farmers Chapecó (SC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hieda Maria Pagliosa Corona

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article the central objective is to understand the fair as a strategic space for the survival of family farming, going beyond the issue of market integration. Field research was conducted in two main fairs in the city of Chapeco/SC, divided into two stages: a study of the characteristics of the market traders, through the interview based on a form with open and closed questions 63 hawkers responsible posts; and interviews from semi-structured questions with 28 families, who met the exigencies of family farmers and are marketer Chapecó residents. The collected data are presented in tabular summaries and analysis followed the content analysis parameters. The results demonstrate the importance of local farmers market vendors not only as a space for marketing of products, but as a social construction of space that are current interconhecimento relations, reciprocity and the relative autonomy of the food hegemonic system.

  13. An agent-based approach equipped with game theory. Strategic collaboration among learning agents during a dynamic market change in the California electricity crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki [Department of Management, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM 87801 (United States); Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan (China)

    2010-09-15

    An agent-based approach is a numerical (computer-intensive) method to explore the complex characteristics and dynamics of microeconomics. Using the agent-based approach, this study investigates the learning speed of traders and their strategic collaboration in a dynamic market change of electricity. An example of such a market change can be found in the California electricity crisis (2000-2001). This study incorporates the concept of partial reinforcement learning into trading agents and finds that they have two learning components: learning from a dynamic market change and learning from collaboration with other traders. The learning speed of traders becomes slow when a large fluctuation occurs in the power exchange market. The learning speed depends upon the type of traders, their learning capabilities and the fluctuation of market fundamentals. The degree of collaboration among traders gradually reduces during the electricity crisis. The strategic collaboration among traders is examined by a large simulator equipped with multiple learning capabilities. (author)

  14. An agent-based approach equipped with game theory. Strategic collaboration among learning agents during a dynamic market change in the California electricity crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki

    2010-01-01

    An agent-based approach is a numerical (computer-intensive) method to explore the complex characteristics and dynamics of microeconomics. Using the agent-based approach, this study investigates the learning speed of traders and their strategic collaboration in a dynamic market change of electricity. An example of such a market change can be found in the California electricity crisis (2000-2001). This study incorporates the concept of partial reinforcement learning into trading agents and finds that they have two learning components: learning from a dynamic market change and learning from collaboration with other traders. The learning speed of traders becomes slow when a large fluctuation occurs in the power exchange market. The learning speed depends upon the type of traders, their learning capabilities and the fluctuation of market fundamentals. The degree of collaboration among traders gradually reduces during the electricity crisis. The strategic collaboration among traders is examined by a large simulator equipped with multiple learning capabilities. (author)

  15. Temporal condensation and dynamic λ-transition within the complex network: an application to real-life market evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiliński, Mateusz; Szewczak, Bartłomiej; Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard; Struzik, Zbigniew R.

    2015-02-01

    We fill a void in merging empirical and phenomenological characterisation of the dynamical phase transitions in complex networks by identifying and thoroughly characterising a triple sequence of such transitions on a real-life financial market. We extract and interpret the empirical, numerical, and analytical evidences for the existence of these dynamical phase transitions, by considering the medium size Frankfurt stock exchange (FSE), as a typical example of a financial market. By using the canonical object for the graph theory, i.e. the minimal spanning tree (MST) network, we observe: (i) the (initial) dynamical phase transition from equilibrium to non-equilibrium nucleation phase of the MST network, occurring at some critical time. Coalescence of edges on the FSE's transient leader (defined by its largest degree) is observed within the nucleation phase; (ii) subsequent acceleration of the process of nucleation and the emergence of the condensation phase (the second dynamical phase transition), forming a logarithmically diverging temporal λ-peak of the leader's degree at the second critical time; (iii) the third dynamical fragmentation phase transition (after passing the second critical time), where the λ-peak logarithmically relaxes over three quarters of the year, resulting in a few loosely connected sub-graphs. This λ-peak (comparable to that of the specific heat vs. temperature forming during the equilibrium continuous phase transition from the normal fluid I 4He to the superfluid II 4He) is considered as a prominent result of a non-equilibrium superstar-like superhub or a dragon-king's abrupt evolution over about two and a half year of market evolution. We capture and meticulously characterise a remarkable phenomenon in which a peripheral company becomes progressively promoted to become the dragon-king strongly dominating the complex network over an exceptionally long period of time containing the crash. Detailed analysis of the complete trio of the

  16. The Price and Volatility Dynamics in the Swedish-Norwegian Renewable Electricity Certificate MarketA Study of Spillover Effects and Regulatory changes

    OpenAIRE

    Finell, Philip; Hiller, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The market for renewable electricity certificates (REC) is the primary support system for renewable energy in Sweden and Norway. Regulatory uncertainty and equity markets have previously been proven to impact the volatility of the REC spot contract. As policy makers, renewable electricity investors and other stakeholders aim for profitability and efficient regulation, additional insights of the dynamics in the  REC market is needed. This study examines regulatory uncertainty on both REC spot ...

  17. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and regulations of Rosstandart. Results basing on a sampling of certificates for products directly from retail outlets analysis of the state alcohol and tobacco consumer market of Tatarstan was carried out. Improper filling of the form of the certificate for products was identified violating all existing norms and laws which are strictly prescribed in technical regulations. On the basis of these violations the validity of certificates for products was assessed and the conclusion was made about the products quality. The share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the total sales in the consumer market was assessed. The shortcomings of the inspection authorities to detect counterfeit products were identified. Scientific novelty the consumer market was researched basing on the method of sampling using probability theory and mathematical statistics to estimate the share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan. The error sampling for counterfeit products in the consumer market was defined. Practical significance the obtained results will allow the inspection authorities to better and more accurately identify counterfeit goods and to restrict the access of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer market of Tatarstan. It is necessary to strengthen the role of state regulation of commercial activities in the consumer market of Russia to stop the flow of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer

  18. The market dynamics of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Methodology: This was a retrospective, descriptive study that measured generic market volume as a percentage of the total ... sive system of procurement, distribution, drug informa- ... pharmaceutical and health care industries used by gov-.

  19. Relationship Marketing in Service Organizations: A Review of the Dynamics of Agency-client Relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Ogbemudia, Sarah

    2006-01-01

    Ongoing relationships between businesses and their customers are receiving renewed interest in marketing as increasing number of firms are shifting their attention from transactional to relationship marketing (Sheth and Parvatiyar 1995). Companies are increasingly realising the importance of customer loyalty and at such prioritising customer retention. Their attention is now focused on retaining satisfied customers, as the costs of acquiring new customers largely outweigh that of retaining ex...

  20. Examining Electronic Markets in Which Intelligent Agents Are Used for Comparison Shopping and Dynamic Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Hertweck, Bryan M.

    2005-01-01

    Electronic commerce markets are becoming increasingly popular forums for commerce. As those markets mature, buyers and sellers will both vigorously seek techniques to improve their performance. The Internet lends itself to the use of agents to work on behalf of buyers and sellers. Through simulation, this research examines different implementations of buyers' agents (shopbots) and sellers' agents (pricebots) so that buyers, sellers, and agent builders can capitalize on the evolution of e-c...

  1. Regulatory intervention on the dynamic European gas market. Neoclassical economics or transaction cost economics?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spanjer, Aldo R.

    2009-01-01

    Shifts at the international gas market indicate that the transaction cost perspective provides better underpinnings for European gas regulation than the current neoclassical perspective. Three implications are that policymakers should: (1) allow alternative coordination measures to complement market exchange; (2) recognize that less than perfect competition outcomes may be optimal and (3) be more reticent in prescribing interventionist measures. Finally, the analysis provides the foundations for the empirical research required to complement this paper's theoretical approach. (author)

  2. A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouri, Elie

    2015-01-01

    Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

  3. The Competitiveness of Exports from Manufacturing Industries in Croatia and Slovenia to the EU-15 Market: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebojša Stojčić

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available It is often stated that the growth prospects of nations are closely related to patterns of competitiveness exercised by their firms and industries in the international market. Building on foundations of endogenous growth and new trade theories academics and policy-makers postulate that quality-driven competitiveness bears higher growth potential than the ability to compete in terms of prices. The transition of Central and Eastern European Countries has been characterised by movement from the latter towards the former pattern of competitiveness. This process was facilitated by the transfer of knowledge and skills through the outsourcing of production from their most important trading partners, the West European members of the European Union (EU-15 countries, which paved the way for the development of intra-industry trade. This paper explores the competitiveness of manufacturing industries from Croatia and Slovenia in the EU-15 market. Using dynamic panel analysis we find that between 2002 and 2007 producers from the two countries followed different patterns of competitiveness. While in Slovenia the quality of exports is the main determinant of EU-15 market share, the competitiveness of Croatian producers still depends on their labour costs. We also find a strong impact of intra-industry trade on the competiveness of industries from the two countries in the EU-15 market.

  4. Dynamic relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and market anxiety: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Sun, Xinxin; Ge, Jintian

    2017-05-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and market anxiety during the period from January 5, 1998 to April 18, 2016. A quantitative technique of multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) is used to explore the multifractal features of the cross-correlations between USD/JPY, AUD/JPY exchange rates and the market anxiety gauge VIX. The investigation shows that the causal relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and VIX are bidirectional in general, and the cross-correlations between the two sets of time series are multifractal. Strong evidence suggests that the cross-correlation exponents tend to exhibit different volatility patterns in response to diverse external shocks such as financial distress and widening in interest rate spread, suggesting that the cross-correlated behavior between Japanese Yen exchange rates and VIX are susceptible to economic uncertainties and risks. In addition, the performances of two market anxiety gauges, the VIX and the TED spread, are compared and the sources of multifractality are also traced. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature by shedding light on the unique driving forces of the Yen exchange rate fluctuations in the international foreign exchange market.

  5. Modeling the Dynamics and Spillovers of the Health Labor Market: Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Zhu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Health workforce misdistribution is a major challenge faced by almost all countries. A more profound understanding of the dynamics of the health labor market provides evidence for policy makers to balance health workforce distribution with solid evidence. However, one major deficit of existing theoretical and empirical studies is that they often ignore the intra-regional spillovers of the health labor market. This study builds a theoretical “supply–demand–spillover” model that considers both intra-regional supply and demand-side factors, and inter-regional spillovers, hence providing a theoretical reference point for further in-depth studies. Using spatial econometric panel models, the effect of all determinants and spillovers were empirically measured based on a Chinese panel data set, shedding light on health workforce policies in China.

  6. Dynamic communities in multichannel data: an application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007-2008 credit crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenn, Daniel J; Porter, Mason A; McDonald, Mark; Williams, Stacy; Johnson, Neil F; Jones, Nick S

    2009-09-01

    We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of individual nodes without having to track entire communities. As an example, we consider a foreign exchange market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. We study the period 2005-2008, which includes the recent credit and liquidity crisis. Using community detection, we find that exchange rates that are strongly attached to their community are persistently grouped with the same set of rates, whereas exchange rates that are important for the transfer of information tend to be positioned on the edges of communities. Our analysis successfully uncovers major trading changes that occurred in the market during the credit crisis.

  7. Dynamic communities in multichannel data: An application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007-2008 credit crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenn, Daniel J.; Porter, Mason A.; McDonald, Mark; Williams, Stacy; Johnson, Neil F.; Jones, Nick S.

    2009-09-01

    We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of individual nodes without having to track entire communities. As an example, we consider a foreign exchange market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. We study the period 2005-2008, which includes the recent credit and liquidity crisis. Using community detection, we find that exchange rates that are strongly attached to their community are persistently grouped with the same set of rates, whereas exchange rates that are important for the transfer of information tend to be positioned on the edges of communities. Our analysis successfully uncovers major trading changes that occurred in the market during the credit crisis.

  8. Dynamics of risk management tools and auctions in the second phase of the Brazilian Electricity Market reform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Souza, Fabio Cavaliere; Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro

    2010-01-01

    In 2004, the reform of the Brazilian Electricity Market underwent a thorough revision. One of its causes was the electricity rationing that began in June 2001 and lasted until February 2002. Among other measures, the 2004 revision devised new mechanisms intended to reduce risks associated to contracts settled in electricity auctions and those related to investments in new generation plants. As 4 years have passed since the onset of the reform's revision, sufficiently enough data are now available for an analysis of the post-revision dynamics of the Brazilian Electricity Market. This is the purpose of the present paper. We focus on the dynamics of the different types of electricity auctions and on the so-called Mechanism for Compensation of Surpluses and Deficits, both created in the wake of the 2004 revision. The ultimate goal is to understand the behavior of the agents involved in auctions - notably buyers and sellers of electricity - and propose remedial actions to eliminate existing loopholes in the present regulatory framework. To achieve this goal, four steps were necessary. Firstly, a data base to support the analysis was built. Then, the main drivers of the dynamics of the risk management tools were identified. Finally, consequences of the implemented changes were discussed and corrections for observed pitfalls proposed. (author)

  9. The dynamics of risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mork, E. [Consultant, Oslo (Norway)

    2006-04-15

    Premiums in futures prices are usually considered through the use of 2 models: a no-arbitrage model; and the equilibrium approach or theory of normal backwardation. The no-arbitrage approach equates futures prices with spot prices, storage costs and convenience yields, and is difficult to apply to electricity markets. This paper investigated future electricity prices in Nord Pool's futures market using an equilibrium approach, which split futures prices into an expected spot price component and a risk premium component. Three main hypotheses were used: (1) that risk premiums were present in the Nord Pool futures market during the period 1997-2004; that risk premiums in the Nord Pool futures market were smaller or absent during the period of 2000 to 2002; and, that there was a significant change in risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market after the winter of 2002-2003 due to a change in consumer hedging behaviour. Futures prices were compared to realized spot prices in their delivery periods in order to test the hypotheses. In order to estimate the futures premiums, a 1-sample test was performed on the entire period for 1, 30, 60, and 90 days before delivery of the block or month contract. The test employed the null hypothesis that the futures premiums were 0. Premiums were positive and varied between 3.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent. The purpose of the study was to determine whether risk premiums were present. Results showed that risk premiums varied over time. Two additional hypotheses were then investigated to examine whether the presence of outside speculators reduced risk premiums, and to see if a period of high prices and volatility caused more buyers to hedge in the futures market. Results showed that in the face of volatility and higher prices, consumers do not purchase fixed-price contracts which would ultimately increase futures premiums in the market. It was concluded that premiums are an important element in the pricing of Nord Pool futures and

  10. Economic and institutional dynamics of electricity markets deregulation: the interaction between sectoral regulation and antitrust policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontanel, B.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to define regulatory intervention as a part of a global monitoring procedure allowing the definition and adaptation of market structures and rules, given the observed behavior of market participants. Nevertheless, the possible inefficiency in its (decisional) coordination with competition authorities implies further analysis. We thus adopt a comparative methodology based on the studying PJM and NETA wholesale markets. This analysis enables us to stress two possible 'models' in the distribution and coordination of monitoring powers. The first one privileges a strong 'informational coordination' between the sectoral regulator and the Transmission System Operator. By contrast, the second model is characterized by a constrained informational coordination, leading to a greater 'decisional convergence' between regulatory intervention and antitrust policy. Lastly, we put these conclusions into perspective with the specific issue of the achievement of an efficient and integrated European market for electricity. In particular, we stress the need for a single regulatory agency, which should be given autonomous decisional powers in the adoption of regional markets reform initiatives (author)

  11. Systems dynamics (SD) strategy for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) marketing - Conquest at the MIT Energy Laboratory (Pres. MIT Energy Initiative)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, T. H. [Yonsei University, Wonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    This reactor has the specification as the power is 330 MWt pressurized water reactor (PWR) with integral steam generators and advanced safety features. In the plant design, it is planned for electricity generation of 100 MWe and thermal applications of seawater desalination where the life span is a 60-year operation design and three-year refueling cycle. Regarding of the licensing, the standard design was approved from the Korean regulator in mid-2012 and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has a plan to build a demonstration plant to operate from 2017. According to the previous study of the marketing strategy of the Canadian small reactor, Safe LOW-POwer Kritical Experiment (SLOWPOKE) reactor had been investigated in 1988. Therefore, it is interesting to compare SMART and SLOWPOKE. In this work, it is to find out the strategy of the successful marketing of SMART and suggest continuous marketing prospects. There are specifications and parameters of SMART in Tables 1 and 2. The public acceptance (PA) had been studies as safety-public interpretation, SLOWPOKE safety-experience and process, and economics in the previous paper of the SLOWPOKE, which was about the marketing strategy for the commercial nuclear reactor. The highly cognitive networking based dynamical modeling was discussed where the system is treated by a complex and non-linear way. The linear networking of the interested issue was changed by the SD algorithm where the feedback and multiple connections are added to the original networking theory. The non-linear method has shown the complexity of the marketing strategy, especially for the NPP which is the very expensive and safety focused facility.

  12. Systems dynamics (SD) strategy for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) marketing - Conquest at the MIT Energy Laboratory (Pres. MIT Energy Initiative)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, T. H.

    2016-01-01

    This reactor has the specification as the power is 330 MWt pressurized water reactor (PWR) with integral steam generators and advanced safety features. In the plant design, it is planned for electricity generation of 100 MWe and thermal applications of seawater desalination where the life span is a 60-year operation design and three-year refueling cycle. Regarding of the licensing, the standard design was approved from the Korean regulator in mid-2012 and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has a plan to build a demonstration plant to operate from 2017. According to the previous study of the marketing strategy of the Canadian small reactor, Safe LOW-POwer Kritical Experiment (SLOWPOKE) reactor had been investigated in 1988. Therefore, it is interesting to compare SMART and SLOWPOKE. In this work, it is to find out the strategy of the successful marketing of SMART and suggest continuous marketing prospects. There are specifications and parameters of SMART in Tables 1 and 2. The public acceptance (PA) had been studies as safety-public interpretation, SLOWPOKE safety-experience and process, and economics in the previous paper of the SLOWPOKE, which was about the marketing strategy for the commercial nuclear reactor. The highly cognitive networking based dynamical modeling was discussed where the system is treated by a complex and non-linear way. The linear networking of the interested issue was changed by the SD algorithm where the feedback and multiple connections are added to the original networking theory. The non-linear method has shown the complexity of the marketing strategy, especially for the NPP which is the very expensive and safety focused facility

  13. Promised Land No More: Dynamic Shifts in Slovene Translation Market and Translator Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nike K. Pokorn

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article outlines the changes of the translation market, the development of Higher Education (HE translator training and of the profession of translator in Slovenia. First, three HE translator-training programmes in Slovenia are briefly described. Second, through an analysis of the public database containing information on all business entities in Slovenia, a description of the translation market in 2014 is made and the findings are compared to those of a similar study carried out in 2007. Then two surveys of translation graduates of University of Ljubljana are presented, focusing in particular on graduate employment statistics and average earnings of junior translators. The results show that despite the fact that the Slovene translation market is thriving, this growth is not reflected in the average earnings of individual translators. Finally, in view of the fact that translation rates are constantly falling, it is argued that the role of professional associations becomes vital.

  14. Dynamics of Aviation Biofuel Investment, Incentives, and Market Growth: An Exploration Using the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura; Newes, Emily

    2016-10-25

    The Federal Aviation Administration promotes the development of an aviation biofuel market, and has pursued a goal of 1 billion gallons of production annually by 2018. Although this goal is unlikely to be met, this analysis applies the Biomass Scenario Model to explore conditions affecting market growth, and identifies policy incentive and oil price conditions under which this level of production might occur, and by what year. Numerous combinations of conditions that are more favorable than current conditions can reach the goal before 2030.

  15. Population Dynamics for Renewables in Electricity Markets: A Minority Game View

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The dominance of fluctuating and intermittent stochastic renewable energy sources (RES) has introduced uncertainty in power systems which in turn, has challenged how electricity market operate. In this context, there has been significant research in developing strategies for RES producers, which...... however typically focuses on the decision process of a single producer, assuming unrealistic access to aspects of information about the power system. This paper analyzes the behavior of an entire population of stochastic producers in an electricity market using as basis a minority game: the El Farol Bar...... problem. We illustrate how uncomplicated strategies based on a adaptive learning rules lead to the coordination among RES producers and a Pareto efficient outcome....

  16. A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes. An empirical analysis of the Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Z.-Q.; Guo, L.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2007-06-01

    A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is carried out on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis, and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in the scaling exponent α, which is different from the universal values 1/2 and 1, but also in the distributions of the ratio η= σexo / σendo of individual stocks. Both the scaling exponent α of fluctuations and the Hurst exponent Hi increase in logarithmic form with the time scale Δt and the mean traded value per minute , respectively. We find that the scaling exponent αendo of the endogenous fluctuations is independent of the time scale. Multiscaling and multifractal features are observed in the data as well. However, the inhomogeneous impact model is not verified.

  18. COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Mednikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

  19. Market diffusion, technological learning, and cost-benefit dynamics of condensing gas boilers in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weiss, M.; Dittmar, L.; Junginger, H.M.; Patel, M.K.; Blok, K.

    2009-01-01

    High costs often prevent the market diffusion of novel and efficient energy technologies. Monitoring cost and price decline for these technologies is thus important in order to establish effective energy policy. Here, we present experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for condensing gas boilers

  20. Dynamic Gender Differences in a Post-Socialist Labor Market: Russia, 1991-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Theodore P.; Mayorova, Olga

    2006-01-01

    We examine how the shift from state socialism affects gender inequality in the labor market using multivariate models of employment exit, employment entry, job mobility and new job quality for 3,580 Russian adults from 1991 through 1997. Gender differences changed in a complex fashion. Relative to men, women gained greater access to employment,…

  1. Proactive Learning Culture: A Dynamic Capability and Key Success Factor for SMEs Entering Foreign Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gnizy, I.; Baker, W.; Grinstein, A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose-Although small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) account for a significant portion of international trade, little is known about the role of strategic orientation culture in improving their foreign launch success. Three orientations-market, entrepreneurial, and learning are all related to

  2. Poverty, Job Quality and Labor Market Dynamics in the Middle East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The problem is compounded by youthful populations, low quality education, bloated public sectors and low productivity levels in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). This project will ... Morocco conforms to Egypt to a significant degree. Jordan offers an ... Impact of labor market reforms on informality in Egypt. Documents.

  3. From mind to market: A global, dynamic analysis of R&D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinloopen, J.; Smrkolj, G.; Wagener, F.

    2013-01-01

    Existing models of R&D are not easily reconciled with four observable aspects of R&D: initial technologies (ideas) need to be developed further, only a minority of initial ideas are successfully brought to the market, production and process innovations take place simultaneously (whereby, initially,

  4. Determinants and Dynamics of Business Aspirations : Evidence from Small-scale Entrepreneurs in an Emerging Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, Patricio; Rüschenpöhler, Julius; Zia, Bilal

    2018-01-01

    Small-scale entrepreneurs are ubiquitous in emerging market economies, yet very few graduate to become larger businesses. We ask whether such entrepreneurs even aspire to grow, and if so, on which dimensions of the business? What factors influence these aspirations, how realistic are they, and do

  5. The market dynamics of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    re-uptake inhibitors: a private sector study in South Africa. Afri Health ... the public and private sectors to reduce medicine costs, and increase ... Fig 1: Comparison between the market volume of generics vs. originators for the period June 2009 ...

  6. Growth, Structure and Firm Dynamics in Grain Markets: The Case of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Optiplex 7010 Pro

    market, firms faced with a U-shaped average cost curve will grow until they reach the ... Regulation and institutional challenges may also deter firm owners from making .... owners/managers account for only 10% of the grain traders. Women ...

  7. The relationship between US heroin market dynamics and heroin-related overdose, 1992-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unick, George; Rosenblum, Daniel; Mars, Sarah; Ciccarone, Daniel

    2014-11-01

    Heroin-related overdose is linked to polydrug use, changes in physiological tolerance and social factors. Individual risk can also be influenced by the structural risk environment including the illicit drug market. We hypothesized that components of the US illicit drug market, specifically heroin source/type, price and purity, will have independent effects on the number of heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Yearly, from 1992 to 2008, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) price and purity series were estimated from the US Drug Enforcement Administration data. Yearly heroin overdose hospitalizations were constructed from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Socio-demographic variables were constructed using several databases. Negative binomial models were used to estimate the effect of price, purity and source region of heroin on yearly hospital counts of heroin overdoses controlling for poverty, unemployment, crime, MSA socio-demographic characteristics and population size. Purity was not associated with heroin overdose, but each $100 decrease in the price per pure gram of heroin resulted in a 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8%, 1.0%] increase in the number of heroin overdose hospitalizations (P = 0.003). Each 10% increase in the market share of Colombian-sourced heroin was associated with a 4.1% (95% CI = 1.7%, 6.6%) increase in number of overdoses reported in hospitals (P = 0.001) independent of heroin quality. Decreases in the price of pure heroin in the United States are associated with increased heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in market concentration of Colombian-source/type heroin is also associated with an increase in heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in US heroin-related overdose admissions appear to be related to structural changes in the US heroin market. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. THE METHODOLOGY OF TESTING THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN THE ROMANIAN MUTUAL FUNDS MARKET AND THE ECONOMY’S DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana RADU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper tests and evaluates the causality between the dynamics of the Romanian mutual fund market and the economy. Using the Granger causality test, a regression analysis has been developed on quarterly data during 2004Q3 – 2012Q2 for the Romanian economy. Based on this relationship, we can emphasize that the controversial debate upon the economic growth and the mutual fund market has became a complex research subject. Therefore, due to its complexity, the timeliness and the continuous growth of the investment funds area, this paper complements the existing literature by identifying the causal linkage between the mutual fund market and the economy. The paper is organized as it follows. First part presents the main premises that have emphasized our research. Second part presents a brief literature review and extracts the studies that appreciate best the relationship between the analyzed variables. Next section is set on defining the potential correlation between the analyzed variables. Then, section 4 tests the causality by using the R facility. The last part concludes.

  9. Exploring the dynamics of financial markets: from stock prices to strategy returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borland, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    Exploring the dynamics of financial time-series is an exciting and interesting challenge because of the many truly complex interactions that underly the price formation process. In this contribution we describe some of the anomalous statistical features of such time-series and review models of the price dynamics both across time and across the universe of stocks. In particular we discuss a non-Gaussian statistical feedback process of stock returns which we have developed over the past years with the particular application of option pricing. We then discuss a cooperative model for the correlations of stock dynamics which has its roots in the field of synergetics, where numerical simulations and comparisons with real data are presented. Finally we present summarized results of an empirical analysis probing the dynamics of actual trading strategy return streams.

  10. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  11. Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Tülin Erdem; Michael P. Keane

    1996-01-01

    We construct two models of the behavior of consumers in an environment where there is uncertainty about brand attributes. In our models, both usage experience and advertising exposure give consumers noisy signals about brand attributes. Consumers use these signals to update their expectations of brand attributes in a Bayesian manner. The two models are (1) a dynamic model with immediate utility maximization, and (2) a dynamic “forward-looking” model in which consumers maximize the expected pr...

  12. Continuous-Time Random Walk with multi-step memory: an application to market dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard

    2017-11-01

    An extended version of the Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with memory is herein developed. This memory involves the dependence between arbitrary number of successive jumps of the process while waiting times between jumps are considered as i.i.d. random variables. This dependence was established analyzing empirical histograms for the stochastic process of a single share price on a market within the high frequency time scale. Then, it was justified theoretically by considering bid-ask bounce mechanism containing some delay characteristic for any double-auction market. Our model appeared exactly analytically solvable. Therefore, it enables a direct comparison of its predictions with their empirical counterparts, for instance, with empirical velocity autocorrelation function. Thus, the present research significantly extends capabilities of the CTRW formalism. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Continuous Time Random Walk Still Trendy: Fifty-year History, Current State and Outlook", edited by Ryszard Kutner and Jaume Masoliver.

  13. Marketing environment dynamics and implications for pricing strategies: the case of home health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponsford, B J; Barlow, D

    1999-01-01

    This research reviews the factors affecting the pricing or rate schedules of home health care agencies. A large number of factors affect costs and thus rate structures. The major factors include reimbursement structures with accompanying discount structures, administrative burdens, and risks. Channel issues include bargaining power, competition, and size. Staffing issues affect pricing and product through the provider level, productivity, and quality outcomes. Physician and patient issues include quality concerns and choices. These factors are discussed in light of overall marketing strategy and the interaction of pricing with other marketing controllables such as product, place/distribution, and promotion. Economic and accounting principles are also reviewed with consideration to understanding direct and indirect costs in order to enable negotiators to effectively price health care services.

  14. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    OpenAIRE

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-01-01

    Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and...

  15. Trading Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Latent Factor Panel Intensity Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nolte, Ingmar; Voev, Valeri

    2011-01-01

    the influence of unobserved time effects and allows for correlation across individuals. We contribute to the literature on market microstructure and behavioral finance by providing new results on the disposition effect and on the manifestation of risk aversion on the high frequency trading level. These novel...... disposition effect. Moreover, the proposed methodology allows the investigation of the strength of these effects for different groups of investors ranging from small retail investors to professional and institutional investors....

  16. Stock Market Volatility Dynamics around National Elections : Empirical Evidence from Asian Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kon Wah

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates a sample of 8 Asian countries to test whether the stock market volatility would be induced higher during national election periods. Our empirical findings show the country-specific component of variance in election periods can easily reach up to 43% higher than the no election periods. It indicates that the investors are shocked with the election outcomes and investors’ sentiments are affected by the political events, no matter how well the preparation is made by inves...

  17. IFRS, synchronicity, and financial crisis: the dynamics of accounting information for the Brazilian capital market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Figlioli

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aims is to investigate the synchronicity levels of shares traded on the spot market of the São Paulo Stock, Commodities , and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA in relation to the accounting convergence process towards International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS in Brazil. The term synchronicity refers to the amount that company-specific information and market information are reflected in stock prices. The more share prices reflect company-specific information rather than market information, the greater the informational content of these prices will be in terms of representing the economic value of a particular company. For this investigation, information on companies and shares from 2005 to 2015 was collected, excluding the financial sector. The data were analyzed using cross-sectional and panel regressions. The results indicate a reduction in the synchronicity levels of stocks in the period of full adoption of IFRS in Brazil from 2010 onwards. From 2008 to 2009, which includes the partial adoption of IFRS in Brazil, statistically significant results were not found for the synchronicity levels of shares. However, for times of financial crisis, evidence was found of a reduction in the relevance of accounting information even with the adoption of international accounting standards. The results obtained for the Brazilian context do not support the idea that the adoption of IFRS necessarily causes an increase in the informational content of financial statements and that relevant information is consequently reflected in stock prices.

  18. Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vivek; Horio, Brant M.; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

  19. Dynamics of the international coffee market and instrumental in price formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Candéa Sá Barreto

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study's main general objective of studying the behavior of coffee beans on the international market. Empirical analysis uses econometric tool as a model of simultaneous equations using least squares in a three-stage annual data base extending over the period 1964 / 65-2014 / 15. The results suggest that the factors that affect the production of coffee beans are the actual prices and the planted area. However, demand is affected by the growth of the world economy. The price simulations for the period 2014/15 - 2020/21 indicate that a yearly growth (GDP of 2.1% there is a tendency of small high price to 3.6% moderate rise in the price of coffee until 2018/19 and a stronger growth trend of prices from 2019/20 and a growth of 4.7% a high coffee prices trend in grain on the international market. Thus the tendency of the projections 3 and the key market factors continue to favor the maintenance of current high coffee prices. For the full period 1964/65 to 2014/15 there is a moderate relationship between coffee prices and the stock. It follows that the results obtained with the scenarios developed in this work can be useful to rethink measures to recover income from coffee producing countries

  20. Estonian sugar mountain turns sour / Alec Charles

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Charles, Alec

    2005-01-01

    Eesti valitsus jätkab võitlust Euroopa Komisjoniga, et mitte maksta 55 miljonit eurot trahvi suhkru ladustamise eest. Peaminister Juhan Parts saatis Euroopa Komisjoni presidendile Jose Manuel Barrosole kirja, milles palus trahvi nõudmise suhtes järele mõelda.

  1. Market Power in Laboratory Emission Permit Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godby, R.

    2002-01-01

    Many proposals suggesting the use of markets to control pollution assume markets will be competitive. When markets do not exhibit competitive characteristics, however, should they still be expected to result in efficiency improvement relative to traditional approaches? This paper employs experimental economic methods to examine the effect of market structure on the use of marketable emissions permits. Results indicate that in a market with one dominant firm and a number of fringe firms, strategic manipulation occurs repeatedly in the laboratory as predicted by market power models, undermining the allocative and dynamic efficiency benefits such markets offer. When firms compete in a downstream product market dominated by the same single firm, market efficiency can actually be reduced with the implementation of permit markets. Final market efficiencies reflect initial endowments and are influenced by competitive conditions elsewhere in the economy, indicating that policy-makers should carefully consider whether markets are appropriate in such circumstances

  2. Study on Triopoly Dynamic Game Model Based on Different Demand Forecast Methods in the Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhai Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of inaccurate demand beliefs on dynamics of a Triopoly game is studied. We suppose that all the players make their own estimations on possible demand with errors. A dynamic Triopoly game with such demand belief is set up. Based on this model, existence and local stable region of the equilibriums are investigated by 3D stable regions of Nash equilibrium point. The complex dynamics, such as bifurcation scenarios and route to chaos, are displayed in 2D bifurcation diagrams, in which e1 and α are negatively related to each other. Basins of attraction are investigated and we found that the attraction domain becomes smaller with the increase in price modification speed, which indicates that all the players’ output must be kept within a certain range so as to keep the system stable. Feedback control method is used to keep the system at an equilibrium state.

  3. Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

    2017-09-01

    We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

  4. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  5. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  6. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Evolution of Land Use in the Brazilian Amazon: From Frontier Expansion to Market Chain Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana S. Soler

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural census data and fieldwork observations are used to analyze changes in land cover/use intensity across Rondônia and Mato Grosso states along the agricultural frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. Results show that the development of land use is strongly related to land distribution structure. While large farms have increased their share of annual and perennial crops, small and medium size farms have strongly contributed to the development of beef and milk market chains in both Rondônia and Mato Grosso. Land use intensification has occurred in the form of increased use of machinery, labor in agriculture and stocking rates of cattle herds. Regional and national demands have improved infrastructure and productivity. The data presented show that the distinct pathways of land use development are related to accessibility to markets and processing industry as well as to the agricultural colonization history of the region. The data analyzed do not provide any indication of frontier stagnation, i.e., the slowdown of agricultural expansion, in the Brazilian Amazon. Instead of frontier stagnation, the data analyzed indicate that intensification processes in consolidated areas as well as recent agricultural expansion into forest areas are able to explain the cycle of expansion and retraction of the agricultural frontier into the Amazon region. The evolution of land use is useful for scenario analysis of both land cover change and land use intensification and provides insights into the role of market development and policies on land use.

  8. Cooperative consumers in a deregulated electricity market - dynamic consumption strategies and price coordination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Maentysaari, J. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology (Finland). Systems Analysis Lab.; Ruusunen, J. [Fortum Power and Heat Inc. (Finland); Pineau, P.O. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology (Finland). Systems Analysis Lab.; Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Monteal , Quebec (Canada)

    2000-09-01

    As the trend in electricity markets is strongly towards deregulation, new players, new rules and new behaviors will continue to emerge. One of the new developments on the demand side is purchases made by a coalition of consumers. It seems indeed likely that in the future this will be more common, and that coalitions of consumers will emerge when they are worthwhile. The aim of this paper is to study how such an organization of consumers can be set up in a hierarchical framework. This new approach has not been described before in the deregulated electricity markets but is clearly an important research topic. We focus our interest on electric space heating, which is an energy need especially important in the Nordic countries such as Finland. We examine the consumption strategies of individual electricity buyers within a coalition. The decision problem all consumers face is to find the optimal use of their space heating system with respect to changes in electricity prices and to their tolerance to indoor temperature variation. A mathematical model for this problem is defined. Physical parameters of sample houses were gathered from an experimental field test conducted in Helsinki during the winter of 1996. The coalition buys in the market at marginal cost. However, as marginal cost pricing may not always fulfill metering and communication needs of the members of the coalition, we consider Time-Of-Use (TOU) pricing within the coalition. Different groups of consumer behavior are constructed to simulate this coalition. The optimal marginal price is used as a reference point to estimate the nearest TOU price within the coalition. (author)

  9. DYNAMICS OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN RELATION TO STOCK MARKET: A VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Shahadath Hossain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In Bangladesh, primary and secondary mutual fund markets behave in a completely different way, where initial public offering (IPO investors of mutual funds earn more than 250 percent rerun, whereas secondary market investors cannot even manage to cover the opportunity cost of their investment. There are few other abnormalities present in this market – unlike everywhere in the world, most of the mutual funds are closed-end (92 percent and closed-end mutual funds are barred to issue bonus or right shares. A total of 714 day’s observations, from January 2008 to December 2010, of four variables– DSE (Dhaka Stock Exchange general index return, DSE general index turnover, mutual funds’ return and mutual funds’ turnover– are utilized. Stationarity of the variables are tested with Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF unit root test and found that variables are in different order of integration. Long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables are tested with Johansen cointegration and it is found that DSE general index return and mutual funds’ return are cointegrated. Toda-Yamamoto (TY version of granger non-causality test is employed and bidirectional causality is found moving from DSE (Dhaka Stock Exchange general index turnover to DSE general index return, whereas unidirectional causality is found moving from mutual fund’s return to DSE general index return, mutual funds’ return to mutual funds turnover, and DSE general index turnover to mutual funds turnover. This finding helps to conclude that equity shares’ demand drives the mutual funds demand but even higher demand of mutual funds fails to raise its own price unless underlying value of the mutual funds changes.

  10. Evolution of Land Use in the Brazilian Amazon: From Frontier Expansion to Market Chain Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Luciana S. Soler; Peter H. Verburg; Diógenes S. Alves

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural census data and fieldwork observations are used to analyze changes in land cover/use intensity across Rondônia and Mato Grosso states along the agricultural frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. Results show that the development of land use is strongly related to land distribution structure. While large farms have increased their share of annual and perennial crops, small and medium size farms have strongly contributed to the development of beef and milk market chains in both Rondôni...

  11. The causal dynamics between coal consumption and growth: Evidence from emerging market economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James E.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for 15 emerging market economies within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1980-2006. The heterogeneous panel cointegration results indicate there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. While in the long-run both real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force have a significant positive impact on real GDP, coal consumption has a significant negative impact. The panel causality tests show bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run. (author)

  12. A Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Intelligence and Socioeconomic Background on Job-Market Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganzach, Yoav

    2011-01-01

    We compare the effects of socioeconomic background (SEB) and intelligence on wage trajectories in a dynamic growth modeling framework in a sample that had completed just 12 years of education. I show that the main difference between the two is that SEB affected wages solely by its effect on entry pay whereas intelligence affected wages primarily…

  13. Changing Household Dynamics: Children's American Generational Resources in Street Vending Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Emir

    2013-01-01

    This article prompts a re-visioning of segmented assimilation theory by examining the household dynamics and consequences that occur when Latino immigrant children and youth become active contributors to family street vending businesses. Based on participant observation and 20 in-depth interviews with Latino children who work with their immigrant…

  14. On dynamic selection of households for direct marketing based on Markov chain models with memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otter, Pieter W.

    A simple, dynamic selection procedure is proposed, based on conditional, expected profits using Markov chain models with memory. The method is easy to apply, only frequencies and mean values have to be calculated or estimated. The method is empirically illustrated using a data set from a charitable

  15. Stochastic dynamic programming optimization of BC Hydro's system under market and hydrologic uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, D. [British Columbia Hydro, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    BC Hydro's installed generation capacity as of March 31, 2003 was 11,103 MW, of which 90 per cent was hydro power, 9 per cent was gas-fired and 1 per cent was non-integrated. The hydroelectric plants belong to one of three groups, the Peace River, Columbia River or small hydro which includes small to moderate sized-plants. Small hydro is controlled by hydrologic regime and storage limitations rather than by system requirements. The installed capacity for the 4 plants on the Columbia River totals 4,722 MW. The installed capacity at the 2 plants on the Peace River totals 3,424 MW. Both watersheds are subject to interior climate conditions with significant inflows from snowmelt and rainfall runoff. This presentation addressed the issue of mid-term hydro scheduling and its impact on markets. For the past 15 years, BC Hydro has used the marginal cost model for electricity trade and for operations planning. The model considers system loads and resources, and maximizes the expected net revenue over a planning horizon of 6 years. A marginal value of water stored in the Williston Reservoir has been established using the marginal cost model. The affect of weather, natural gas prices and water supply on hydro generation was also discussed. It was noted that information on spot market electricity prices has significantly improved since the electric power industry was deregulated in 1996. tabs., figs.

  16. Energy Company strategies in the dynamic EU Energy Market (1995-2007)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van den Heuvel, S.; De Jong, J.; Van der Linde, C.; Sherwood, D.

    2010-05-01

    Generally, companies adapt their strategies to a changing environment, a process that often moves faster than the implementation of new policy measures. These strategic reactions are often taken to mitigate risks and to secure a strong position in an increasingly competitive market. Such responses interact with the main policy priorities. It is therefore interesting to understand the interaction between company strategies and policy priorities and to assess whether synergies can be found and whether strategies and policy objectives can be aligned. This study concentrates on gas and electricity companies in Europe's largest markets. The structure of the paper is as follows. Chapter 2 introduces the major changes that have taken place and that have formed the basis of the EU's new energy policy priorities. Chapter 3 presents the strategic responses that followed these major trends. In Chapter 4, specific strategies that companies developed to deal with the changing environment are highlighted and illustrated with examples. Chapter 5 discusses the alignment of company strategies and policy objectives and presents a number of policy recommendations to make use of the companies for reaching policy targets. The final chapter provides the conclusion. A number of appendices are included to provide background to the analyses.

  17. Stochastic dynamic programming optimization of BC Hydro's system under market and hydrologic uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Druce, D.

    2004-01-01

    BC Hydro's installed generation capacity as of March 31, 2003 was 11,103 MW, of which 90 per cent was hydro power, 9 per cent was gas-fired and 1 per cent was non-integrated. The hydroelectric plants belong to one of three groups, the Peace River, Columbia River or small hydro which includes small to moderate sized-plants. Small hydro is controlled by hydrologic regime and storage limitations rather than by system requirements. The installed capacity for the 4 plants on the Columbia River totals 4,722 MW. The installed capacity at the 2 plants on the Peace River totals 3,424 MW. Both watersheds are subject to interior climate conditions with significant inflows from snowmelt and rainfall runoff. This presentation addressed the issue of mid-term hydro scheduling and its impact on markets. For the past 15 years, BC Hydro has used the marginal cost model for electricity trade and for operations planning. The model considers system loads and resources, and maximizes the expected net revenue over a planning horizon of 6 years. A marginal value of water stored in the Williston Reservoir has been established using the marginal cost model. The affect of weather, natural gas prices and water supply on hydro generation was also discussed. It was noted that information on spot market electricity prices has significantly improved since the electric power industry was deregulated in 1996. tabs., figs

  18. Market diffusion, technological learning, and cost-benefit dynamics of condensing gas boilers in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, Martin; Dittmar, Lars; Junginger, Martin; Patel, Martin K.; Blok, Kornelis

    2009-01-01

    High costs often prevent the market diffusion of novel and efficient energy technologies. Monitoring cost and price decline for these technologies is thus important in order to establish effective energy policy. Here, we present experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for condensing gas boilers produced and sold in the Netherlands between 1981 and 2006. For the most dominant boiler type on the Dutch market, i.e., condensing gas combi boilers, we identify learning rates of 14±1% for the average price and 16±8% for the additional price relative to non-condensing devices. Economies of scale, competitive sourcing of boiler components, and improvements in boiler assembly are among the main drivers behind the observed price decline. The net present value of condensing gas combi boilers shows an overall increasing trend. Purchasing in 2006 a gas boiler of this type instead of a non-condensing device generates a net present value of 970 EUR (Euro) and realizes CO 2 (carbon dioxide) emission savings at negative costs of -120 EUR per tonne CO 2 . We attribute two-thirds of the improvements in the cost-benefit performance of condensing gas combi boilers to technological learning and one-third to a combination of external effects and governmental policies.

  19. Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, Phillip; Hinich, Melvin J.; Foster, John

    2010-01-01

    In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to June 2009 to test for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing daily and weekly cycles in load and spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) to the time series of half hourly spot prices and load demand from 7/12/1998 to 30/06/2009 using a FORTRAN 95 program. We find the presence of significant third and fourth-order (nonlinear) serial dependence in the weekly load and spot price data in particular, but to a much more marginal extent, in the daily data. (author)

  20. Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Luciano

    2017-01-01

    Although the widespread influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences on crop yields of the main agricultural commodities is well known, the global socio-economic consequences of ENSO still remain uncertain. Given the global importance of wheat for global consumption by providing 20% of global calories and nourishment, the monitoring and prediction of ENSO-induced variations in the worldwide wheat market are essential for allowing national governments to manage the associated risks and to ensure the supplies of wheat for consumers, including the underprivileged. To this end, we propose a global dynamic model for the analysis of ENSO impacts on wheat yield anomalies, export prices, exports and stock-to-use ratios. Our framework focuses on seven countries/regions: the six main wheat-exporting countries-the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the group of the main Black Sea export countries, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan-plus the rest of the world. The study shows that La Niña exerts, on average, a stronger and negative impact on wheat yield anomalies, exports and stock-to-use ratios than El Niño. In contrast, wheat export prices are positively related to La Niña occurrences evidencing, once again, its steady impact in both the short and long run. Our findings emphasize the importance of the two ENSO extreme phases for the worldwide wheat market.

  1. Similarity measure and topology evolution of foreign exchange markets using dynamic time warping method: Evidence from minimal spanning tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Gang-Jin; Xie, Chi; Han, Feng; Sun, Bo

    2012-08-01

    In this study, we employ a dynamic time warping method to study the topology of similarity networks among 35 major currencies in international foreign exchange (FX) markets, measured by the minimal spanning tree (MST) approach, which is expected to overcome the synchronous restriction of the Pearson correlation coefficient. In the empirical process, firstly, we subdivide the analysis period from June 2005 to May 2011 into three sub-periods: before, during, and after the US sub-prime crisis. Secondly, we choose NZD (New Zealand dollar) as the numeraire and then, analyze the topology evolution of FX markets in terms of the structure changes of MSTs during the above periods. We also present the hierarchical tree associated with the MST to study the currency clusters in each sub-period. Our results confirm that USD and EUR are the predominant world currencies. But USD gradually loses the most central position while EUR acts as a stable center in the MST passing through the crisis. Furthermore, an interesting finding is that, after the crisis, SGD (Singapore dollar) becomes a new center currency for the network.

  2. Marketization Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Morten Balle; Lindholst, Andrej Christian

    2016-01-01

    out; Benchmarking and yardstick competition; and Public-Private collaboration. On the basis of the review of the seven articles, it is found that all elements in all marketization models are firmly embedded but also under dynamic change within public service delivery systems. The review also......Purpose: The purpose of this introduction article to the IJPSM special issue on marketization is to clarify the conceptual foundations of marketization as a phenomenon within the public sector and to gauge current marketization trends on the basis of the seven articles in the special issue. Design....../methodology/approach: Conceptual clarification and cross-cutting review of seven articles analysing marketization in six countries in three policy areas at the level of local government. Findings: Four ideal-type models are deduced: Quasi-markets, involving both provider competition and free choice for users; Classic contracting...

  3. Editorial Foreword: The Internal Dynamics of the Enlarged Single European Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Wittlinger

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This Special Issue consists of a small selection of the wide range of papers which were delivered at the seminars. It can thus only provide a snapshot. We have, however, tried to ensure that the choice of the papers included in this volume also reflects the fact that it was academics AND practitioners who contributed to the overall success of the series. Whereas the first five contributors (Schweiger, de la Porte, Funk, Allen and Aldred, Pogátsa examine their various topics from an academic perspective, the last two papers (Galgóczi and Medhurst/Tortolano provide assessments of the impact of the Single European Market on Central and Eastern European and wider EU member state economies and societies from a trade union perspective.

  4. Web-based experiments for the study of collective social dynamics in cultural markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salganik, Matthew J; Watts, Duncan J

    2009-07-01

    Social scientists are often interested in understanding how the dynamics of social systems are driven by the behavior of individuals that make up those systems. However, this process is hindered by the difficulty of experimentally studying how individual behavioral tendencies lead to collective social dynamics in large groups of people interacting over time. In this study, we investigate the role of social influence, a process well studied at the individual level, on the puzzling nature of success for cultural products such as books, movies, and music. Using a "multiple-worlds" experimental design, we are able to isolate the causal effect of an individual-level mechanism on collective social outcomes. We employ this design in a Web-based experiment in which 2,930 participants listened to, rated, and downloaded 48 songs by up-and-coming bands. Surprisingly, despite relatively large differences in the demographics, behavior, and preferences of participants, the experimental results at both the individual and collective levels were similar to those found in Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006). Further, by comparing results from two distinct pools of participants, we are able to gain new insights into the role of individual behavior on collective outcomes. We conclude with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of Web-based experiments to address questions of collective social dynamics. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  5. A Q-learning agent-based model for the analysis of the power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tellidou, A.; Bakirtzis, A.

    2006-01-01

    The introduction of deregulation in the electricity sector resulted in a different way of thinking and acting on the part of producers. Power suppliers strive to maximize their profit and their utilization rate through a bidding process. According to the pricing system, the competition conditions, the demand side bidding, and the available information, they develop different bidding strategies in order to exploit every possible advantage. This paper presents the Q-Learning algorithm in order to model the bidding strategy of suppliers in electricity auctions. The study examined players' behaviour in the spot market and the change in their policy under different conditions of demand. The Q-learning algorithm considers a novel approach to the definition of states and actions. States are not defined exclusively, as states of the environment, but rather, are different for each agent and relative to the impact the environment has on the agent. Actions are not represented by the price the agent bids, but by the variation between the previous and the new bid price. Market structure was described in this paper and the supplier's bidding problem was formulated in terms of Q-learning. A description of the test system was presented and the parameter selection of the algorithm, as well as the presentation and the results of four case study simulations were discussed. The Q-learning algorithm in supplier bidding strategy showed very promising results. it was suggested that the research should be expanded to include more producers or tests of transmission systems. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  6. Business model configuration and dynamics for technology commercialization in mature markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flammini, Serena; Arcese, Gabriella; Lucchetti, Maria Claudia; Mortara, Letizia

    2017-01-01

    The food industry is a well-established and complex industry. New entrants attempting to penetrate it via the commercialization of a new technological innovation could face high uncertainty and constraints. The capability to innovate through collaboration and to identify suitable strategies and innovative business models (BMs) can be particularly important for bringing a technological innovation to this market. However, although the potential for these capabilities has been advocated, we still lack a complete understanding of how new ventures could support the technology commercialization process via the development of BMs. The paper aims to discuss these issues. To address this gap, this paper builds a conceptual framework that knits together the different bodies of extant literature (i.e. entrepreneurship, strategy and innovation) to analyze the BM innovation processes associated with the exploitation of emerging technologies; determines the suitability of the framework using data from the exploratory case study of IT IS 3D - a firm which has started to exploit 3D printing in the food industry; and improves the initial conceptual framework with the findings that emerged in the case study. From this analysis it emerged that: companies could use more than one BM at a time; hence, BM innovation processes could co-exist and be run in parallel; the facing of high uncertainty might lead firms to choose a closed and/or a familiar BM, while explorative strategies could be pursued with open BMs; significant changes in strategies during the technology commercialization process are not necessarily reflected in a radical change in the BM; and firms could deliberately adopt interim strategies and BMs as means to identify the more suitable ones to reach the market. This case study illustrates how firms could innovate the processes of their BM development to face the uncertainties linked with the entry into a mature and highly conservative industry (food).

  7. Tracking cross-contamination transfer dynamics at a mock retail deli market using GloGerm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maitland, Jessica; Boyer, Renee; Gallagher, Dan; Duncan, Susan; Bauer, Nate; Kause, Janell; Eifert, Joseph

    2013-02-01

    Ready-to-eat (RTE) deli meats are considered a food at high risk for causing foodborne illness. Deli meats are listed as the highest risk RTE food vehicle for Listeria monocytogenes. Cross-contamination in the retail deli market may contribute to spread of pathogens to deli meats. Understanding potential cross-contamination pathways is essential for reducing the risk of contaminating various products. The objective of this study was to track cross-contamination pathways through a mock retail deli market using an abiotic surrogate, GloGerm, to visually represent how pathogens may spread through the deli environment via direct contact with food surfaces. Six contamination origination sites (slicer blade, meat chub, floor drain, preparation table, employee's glove, and employee's hands) were evaluated separately. Each site was inoculated with 20 ml of GloGerm, and a series of standard deli operations were completed (approximately 10 min of work). Photographs were then taken under UV illumination to visualize spread of GloGerm throughout the deli. A sensory panel evaluated the levels of contamination on the resulting contaminated surfaces. Five of the six contamination origination sites were associated with transfer of GloGerm to the deli case door handle, slicer blade, meat chub, preparation table, and the employee's gloves. Additional locations became contaminated (i.e., deli case shelf, prep table sink, and glove box), but this contamination was not consistent across all trials. Contamination did not spread from the floor drain to any food contact surfaces. The findings of this study reinforce the need for consistent equipment cleaning and food safety practices among deli workers to minimize cross-contamination.

  8. Dynamic reallocation of marketable nitrogen emission permits in Danish freshwater aquaculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus; Andersen, Jesper Levring; Bogetoft, Peter

    2014-01-01

    farms are gradually introduced to the industry over 10 years. The new industry structure, production, and profitability gains are investigated, and the effect of changing the overall level of nitrogen emission is analyzed. Our results show that there is scope for a more efficient allocation of resources...... to either increase the production level or to reduce the emission level. This article adds to the literature by extending previous static reallocation models to a dynamic model, which allows for a gradual introduction of new firms. This makes it possible for managers to analyze the effects of reallocating...

  9. Factors Affecting Stock Returns of Firms Quoted in ISE Market: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şebnem Er

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Several studies, explaining the factors affecting stock returns, have been published both in developed and developing countries. In many of these papers, either cross-sectional or time series methods have been applied. In this study, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Methods have been conducted to explain the factors affecting stock returns of 64 manufacturing firms that are continuously quoted in ISE during the period of 2003-2007. The results indicate that stock performance, financial structure, activity and profitability ratios can be used to explain the stock returns as well as the oil prices, economic growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply.

  10. Contextualizing nurse education in Israel: sociodemography, labor market dynamics and professional training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birenbaum-Carmeli, Daphna

    2007-04-01

    Motivations for selecting nursing as a career are usually explored through direct questions to candidates and students. The present article aims to uncover ties between the demand structure for the profession and broader socio-demographic and economic processes. Data covering a ten year period was retrieved from an Israeli university. It is suggested that the intensity of demographic and economic shifts in Israel allows clearer observation of more general student-related processes that probably take place, if on a smaller scale, virtually everywhere. Many of the new recruits to academic nursing programs in Israel in 1996-2004 came from two somewhat marginal sub-populations: immigrants from the Former Soviet Union and Israeli Palestinians. The high, yet decreasing percentage of the former category and the rise in the latter are interpreted in terms of competing forces in the local healthcare labor market, immigrants' adaptation and economic fluctuations. The demand for nursing studies corresponds to socio-demographic and economic changes. It may be beneficial to consider such links in long term planning and training policies.

  11. Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbugua, L N; Mwita, P N

    2013-01-01

    Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

  12. Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournié, G; Guitian, F J; Mangtani, P; Ghani, A C

    2011-08-07

    Live bird markets (LBMs) act as a network 'hub' and potential reservoir of infection for domestic poultry. They may therefore be responsible for sustaining H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation within the poultry sector, and thus a suitable target for implementing control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to understand how market functioning impacts on the transmission dynamics. We then investigated the potential for rest days-periods during which markets are emptied and disinfected-to modulate the dynamics of H5N1 HPAI within the poultry sector using a stochastic meta-population model. Our results suggest that under plausible parameter scenarios, HPAI H5N1 could be sustained silently within LBMs with the time spent by poultry in markets and the frequency of introduction of new susceptible birds' dominant factors determining sustained silent spread. Compared with interventions applied in farms (i.e. stamping out, vaccination), our model shows that frequent rest days are an effective means to reduce HPAI transmission. Furthermore, our model predicts that full market closure would be only slightly more effective than rest days to reduce transmission. Strategies applied within markets could thus help to control transmission of the disease.

  13. Investigating the impact of unanticipated market and construction delays on the development of a meshed HVDC grid using dynamic transmission planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shariat Torbaghan, S.; Gibescu, M.; Rawn, B.G.; Müller, H.; Roggenkamp, M.; vd Meijden, M.A.M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study presents a market-based dynamic transmission planning framework for the construction of a meshed offshore voltage source converter-high voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC) grid. Such a grid is foreseen for integrating offshore wind and electricity trade functions among the North Sea

  14. Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Kyung Soo; Bae, Jeong Hwan

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the US. Between 2007 and 2008, the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply, reflecting the rise in international oil prices. These dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy. Employing a structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR), we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn, which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the US. The results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline. Consequently, policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co-products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price. - Research highlights: → World economy experienced 'dual shocks', which were caused by skyrocketed oil prices and grain prices between 2007 and 2008. → Sharp increases in ethanol production in response to high oil prices were considered as a major driving force to 'ag-flation' in the United States. → Applying a time series econometric tool, called the 'structural vector auto-regression model', we evaluated relationship between ethanol production and corn prices. → The result shows that ethanol production affects corn prices in the short run, while corn prices are lowered as other corn demands (feed for livestock or export demand) decline in the long run.

  15. Monitoring the informational efficiency of European corporate bond markets with dynamical permutation min-entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zunino, Luciano; Bariviera, Aurelio F.; Guercio, M. Belén; Martinez, Lisana B.; Rosso, Osvaldo A.

    2016-08-01

    In this paper the permutation min-entropy has been implemented to unveil the presence of temporal structures in the daily values of European corporate bond indices from April 2001 to August 2015. More precisely, the informational efficiency evolution of the prices of fifteen sectorial indices has been carefully studied by estimating this information-theory-derived symbolic tool over a sliding time window. Such a dynamical analysis makes possible to obtain relevant conclusions about the effect that the 2008 credit crisis has had on the different European corporate bond sectors. It is found that the informational efficiency of some sectors, namely banks, financial services, insurance, and basic resources, has been strongly reduced due to the financial crisis whereas another set of sectors, integrated by chemicals, automobiles, media, energy, construction, industrial goods & services, technology, and telecommunications has only suffered a transitory loss of efficiency. Last but not least, the food & beverage, healthcare, and utilities sectors show a behavior close to a random walk practically along all the period of analysis, confirming a remarkable immunity against the 2008 financial crisis.

  16. DYNAMIC MODEL FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE TRACEABILITY OF MEXICAN BEEF MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucila Herrera Ayala

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to point out the importance of the implementation of a traceability system in economic terms in the beef meat production activity, for the 2011-2016 period, a dynamic model was created in order to estimate the real value of the cattle inventory and to make projections of the gains and losses obtained in the implementation or not of this system with two possible plausible scenarios that affect the exports and imports. The results indicate that if the exports were increased by 53%, just like it happened in Uruguay with the implementation of this system, gains would increase 8.21% in the yearly average. In the absence of this system and considering the 80% decrease of the exports in the United States, in the presence of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE losses would increase 9.97% in a yearly average. In both scenarios a change ± of 20% in the imports was considered. Due to the results obtained and in the face of foreseeable conduct of trade, the cost of opportunity of a traceability system results positive.

  17. An insight into airline dynamic pricing practices in emerging markets: Effects of low cost carriers' presence on routes from Belgrade 'Nikola Tesla' airport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Nikola V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic pricing and revenue management in airline industry have been the subject of research for more than twenty years now. Building upon that massive body of research, in this paper we investigate actual dynamic pricing patterns in new and emerging markets. We specifically focus on the impact that recent entry of low cost carriers on a number of routes from Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport might have had on pricing practices of legacy incumbents. Unlike with most of previous contributions in the field, we analyse the market characterised by relatively low frequencies and predominantly short-to-medium haul flights. In this paper, we observe and analyse pricing dynamics on two types of routes: routes where only legacy carriers operate and routes where legacy carriers face competition from low cost carriers. The effects of route competition on offered airline fares are estimated and conclusions derived.

  18. Public policies for the development of solar photovoltaic energy and the impacts on dynamics of technology systems and markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Hyun Jin Julie

    2016-01-01

    Over the past decades, climate change has been a subject of serious international negotiations. Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy has caught the eyes of many governments as one of the front-runner technologies for the low carbon energy transition in the global community. Solar PV systems have experienced strong market growth over the last decade supported by favorable political reactions in the energy transition context. However, despite these favorable conditions, paradoxically, the global PV market recently went through a chaotic time encountering the overproduction issue, the industry crisis and the long-lasting trade disputes. Furthermore, as the level of PV penetration increases, many problematics started to appear with negative systemic impacts on the electricity sector. This thesis started from these problematics to understand the PV policy mechanisms and the context change. In order to define those issues, a systemic approach is taken to provide an accurate comprehension of the overall mechanisms of PV public policies. The concrete systemic vision of PV policy mechanisms is constructed based on theoretical and historical analysis by defining key variables and the context (Part I). A retrospective analysis using the proposed mapping tools is conducted to understand critical limits and challenges of PV development and to identify risks factors in the sector (Part II). This thesis also demonstrates how the nature of policy context changes in combined with the dynamic features of the PV sector. This helps anticipate possible risks of PV development in the future. The thesis highlights the nationwide PV policy dynamics was broken with the arrival of China in the PV sector. Taken the defined critical limits and challenges into account, this thesis eventually proposes strategic orientations of PV development at the two dimensions from both national and international perspectives (Part III). At the national level, this thesis discusses on PV self-consumption as the

  19. The Dynamic Environment of Crypto Markets: The Lifespan of New Psychoactive Substances (NPS) and Vendors Selling NPS

    OpenAIRE

    Elle Wadsworth; Colin Drummond; Paolo Deluca

    2018-01-01

    The Internet has played a major role in the distribution of New Psychoactive Substances (NPS), and crypto markets are increasingly used for the anonymous sale of drugs, including NPS. This study explores the availability of individual NPS and vendors on the crypto markets and considers whether crypto markets are a reliable platform for the sale of NPS. Data was collected from 22 crypto markets that were accessed through the hidden web using the Onion Router (Tor). Data collection took place b...

  20. An artificial ecosystem model used in the study of social, economic and technological dynamics: An artificial electrical energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arjona, D.

    1998-01-01

    This paper will present the artificial ecosystem as a tool, in the development of multi agent models for the simulation of economic and technological dynamics (as well as other possible applications). This tool is based on the mechanics of an artificial society and consists of autonomous artificial agents that interact with individuals that have different characteristics and behavior and other that have a similar conduct to their own. Initial conditions are assumed not to be controllable, however they can be influenced. The importance of the concept of the ecosystem is in understanding great units in the light of their own components which are relevant for the analysis and become interdependent among themselves and with other essential components that hold the total operation of the system. Ideas for the development of a simulation model based on autonomous intelligent agents are presented. These agents will have a brain that is based on artificial intelligence technologies. The Sand Kings Simulation Model, an artificial ecosystem model developed by the author, is described as well as the application of artificial intelligence to this artificial life model. An application to a real life problem is also offered as an artificial energy market that is currently being developed by the author is described

  1. A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. An analysis of capacity and price trajectories for the Ontario electricity market using dynamic Nash equilibrium under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genc, T.S.; Suvrajeet Sen

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies investments in the Ontario Electricity Market which is currently being restructured. Our methodology is based on the concept of S-adapted open-loop Nash equilibrium. We examine the evolution of capital investments and pricing behavior of suppliers as uncertain electricity demand evolves over time (in Ontario). This study is particularly interesting since we compare the implications of two policies: (i) the current setting in which Ontario Power Generation (OPG) retains its generation units; (ii) the policy (set up in 2003) that required the divestiture of the largest supplier, OPG, and aimed to increase the number of independent suppliers in Ontario. We mainly focus on the independent generators like Bruce Nuclear. We use the tools of Stochastic Programming to compute the S-adapted open-loop Nash equilibrium market outcomes. We find that in the three-player market total capacity installation and market prices are higher than the ones in the five-player market. That is higher capacity may not necessarily alleviate exercise of market power. We also confirm the prediction by the National Energy Board that in a market with five major players, OPG's market share may reduce to a percentage between 35% and 40%. (author)

  3. Market integration in the crustaceans market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Bronnmann, Julia

    2018-01-01

    are substitutes. Price determination processes for the shrimp markets vary with the level of the value chain. The results imply that the wild and farmed crustaceans markets are interacting through substitution effects. Hence, the markets have the capability to shield volatile and rising prices that would emanate......In this paper the price dynamics and the degree of market integration in the German crustaceans market is examined using cointegration methods. The study focuses on wild caught cold water shrimp, farmed warm water shrimp as well as lobster and derives implications for the fisheries sector....... In the analysis, both the import market and the retail market price reactions are distinguished. Therefore, it is evaluated how price changes affect competing commodities within and between the value chain of a given crustaceans commodity. Evidence of partial market integration is found for all species under...

  4. Recent internal migration and labour market outcomes: Exploring the 2008 and 2010 national income dynamics study (NIDS panel data in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhlanhla Cyril Mbatha

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We began with the premise that South African recent migrants from rural to urban areas experience relatively lower rates of participation in formal labour markets compared to local residents in urban communities, and that these migrants are overrepresented in the informal labour market and in the unemployment sector. This means that rural to urban migrants are less likely than locals to be found in formal employment and more likely to be found in informal employment and among the unemployed. Using perspectives from Development Economics we explore the South African National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS panel datasets of 2008 and 2010, which only provide a perspective on what has happened between 2008 and 2010. We find that while migrants in general experience positive outcomes in informal labour markets, they also experience positive outcomes in formal markets, which is contrary to expectations. We also find that there are strong links between other indicators of performance in the labour market. Earned incomes are closely associated with migration decisions and educational qualifications (e.g. a matric certificate for respondents between the ages of 30 and 60 years. The youth (15 to 30 years old and senior respondents (over the age of 60 are the most disadvantaged in the labour market. The disadvantage is further reflected in lower earned incomes. This is the case even though the youth are most likely to migrate. We conclude that migration is motivated by both push (to seek employment and pull (existing networks or marriage at destination factors. For public policy, the emerging patterns – indicative and established – are important for informing strategies aimed at creating employment and developing skills for the unemployed, migrants and especially the youth. Similar policy strategies are embodied in the National Development Plan (NDP, the National Skills Development Strategy (NSDS, etc.

  5. Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state: The role of labor-market status, country of origin, and gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirk Scott

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This article studies childbearing dynamics by labor-market status of co-residing parents in Sweden. We apply event-history techniques to longitudinal register data on the life histories of foreign-born mothers from ten different countries and the partners to these women, as well as to a sample of Swedish-born mothers and their partners. The context is a universalistic welfare state geared towards gender and social equality where formal social rights are largely independent of a person's civil status, citizenship, and country of origin. We investigate the extent to which the associations of parents' labor-market status with childbearing in Sweden differ between women and men and by country of origin. We find that the patterns of association are fairly similar on both of these individual dimensions. As measured by the way the labor-market activity of parents is related to their subsequent childbearing, we find evidence of equality by gender and at least some evidence of integration of immigrants into the dynamics of Swedish society.

  6. Marketing Audit A Systematic and Comprehensive Marketing Examination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah Al Fahad

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract-The growing complexity of the current market environment needs a more systematic evaluation process that how organizational marketing performance deals with the dynamic market. This paper point out the benefit of marketing audit to deals with systematic evaluation of plans objectives strategies activities and organizational structure as well as marketing staff. Recent study has portrayed a broader conceptualization of effectiveness of using marketing audit. Through this paper we want to bring into focus the broad and different aspects of marketing audit that can help the organization its strength and weakness. The paper suggests that marketing audit should use as a mechanism to evaluate the entire marketing system.

  7. Strategy-aligned fuzzy approach for market segment evaluation and selection: a modular decision support system by dynamic network process (DNP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi Nasrabadi, Ali; Hosseinpour, Mohammad Hossein; Ebrahimnejad, Sadoullah

    2013-05-01

    In competitive markets, market segmentation is a critical point of business, and it can be used as a generic strategy. In each segment, strategies lead companies to their targets; thus, segment selection and the application of the appropriate strategies over time are very important to achieve successful business. This paper aims to model a strategy-aligned fuzzy approach to market segment evaluation and selection. A modular decision support system (DSS) is developed to select an optimum segment with its appropriate strategies. The suggested DSS has two main modules. The first one is SPACE matrix which indicates the risk of each segment. Also, it determines the long-term strategies. The second module finds the most preferred segment-strategies over time. Dynamic network process is applied to prioritize segment-strategies according to five competitive force factors. There is vagueness in pairwise comparisons, and this vagueness has been modeled using fuzzy concepts. To clarify, an example is illustrated by a case study in Iran's coffee market. The results show that success possibility of segments could be different, and choosing the best ones could help companies to be sure in developing their business. Moreover, changing the priority of strategies over time indicates the importance of long-term planning. This fact has been supported by a case study on strategic priority difference in short- and long-term consideration.

  8. Strategic Marketing in Tourism

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Muhcina; Brailoiu Liviu

    2012-01-01

    Tourism is a very dynamic economic sector because is very depended of environmental changes, especially now, when the global economy pass through successive crises. For the competitive organizations, the success means to transform their specific activity in a more market oriented business. The objectives of any organization must be fixed going from a better understanding of the markets. Strategic marketing means to know and analyze the consumers’ needs and the market which organization refers...

  9. The Dynamic Environment of Crypto Markets: The Lifespan of New Psychoactive Substances (NPS) and Vendors Selling NPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadsworth, Elle; Drummond, Colin; Deluca, Paolo

    2018-03-16

    The Internet has played a major role in the distribution of New Psychoactive Substances (NPS), and crypto markets are increasingly used for the anonymous sale of drugs, including NPS. This study explores the availability of individual NPS and vendors on the crypto markets and considers whether crypto markets are a reliable platform for the sale of NPS. Data was collected from 22 crypto markets that were accessed through the hidden web using the Onion Router (Tor). Data collection took place bimonthly from October 2015 to October 2016 as part of the CASSANDRA ( C omputer A ssisted S olutions for S tudying the A vailability a N d D ist R ibution of novel psycho A ctive substances) project. In seven snapshots over 12 months, 808 unique vendors were found selling 256 unique NPS. The total number of individual NPS and vendors increased across the data collection period (increase of 93.6% and 71.6%, respectively). Only 24% ( n = 61) of the total number of NPS and 4% ( n = 31) of vendors appeared in every snapshot over the 12 months, whereas 21% ( n = 54) of NPS and 45% ( n = 365) of vendors only appeared once throughout the data collection. The individual NPS and vendors did not remain the same over the 12 months. However, the availability of NPS and vendors selling NPS grew. NPS consistently available on crypto markets could indicate popular substances.

  10. The Dynamic Environment of Crypto Markets: The Lifespan of New Psychoactive Substances (NPS and Vendors Selling NPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elle Wadsworth

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Internet has played a major role in the distribution of New Psychoactive Substances (NPS, and crypto markets are increasingly used for the anonymous sale of drugs, including NPS. This study explores the availability of individual NPS and vendors on the crypto markets and considers whether crypto markets are a reliable platform for the sale of NPS. Data was collected from 22 crypto markets that were accessed through the hidden web using the Onion Router (Tor. Data collection took place bimonthly from October 2015 to October 2016 as part of the CASSANDRA (Computer Assisted Solutions for Studying the Availability aNd DistRibution of novel psychoActive substances project. In seven snapshots over 12 months, 808 unique vendors were found selling 256 unique NPS. The total number of individual NPS and vendors increased across the data collection period (increase of 93.6% and 71.6%, respectively. Only 24% (n = 61 of the total number of NPS and 4% (n = 31 of vendors appeared in every snapshot over the 12 months, whereas 21% (n = 54 of NPS and 45% (n = 365 of vendors only appeared once throughout the data collection. The individual NPS and vendors did not remain the same over the 12 months. However, the availability of NPS and vendors selling NPS grew. NPS consistently available on crypto markets could indicate popular substances.

  11. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arfaoui Mongi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We also find that, comparing to optimal weights, hedge ratios are typically low, denoting that hedging efficiency is quite good. Our estimation of hedging efficiency suggests that incorporating foreign exchange in a full stock, unhedged portfolio increases the risk-adjusted return while reducing its variance. (We note here that the forex market is overweighted for both portfolio allocations and hedging strategies. Moreover, this conclusion holds for all countries in all three models.

  12. Innovative dynamics and competitive ability of Germany in green future markets; Innovationsdynamik und Wettbewerbsfaehigkeit Deutschlands in gruenen Zukunftsmaerkten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walz, Rainer; Ostertag, Katrin; Doll, Claus [Fraunhofer Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (DE)] (and others)

    2008-04-15

    The environmental protection and resources protection are very important nationally and internationally. For the economy in Europe and in Germany, environmental innovations set up substantial market potentials as well as chances for growth and occupation on the domestic and international markets. In a preceding project, four future markets and/or action fields were analysed. This view is extended in the contribution under consideration. Ten case studies are accomplished to individual technology lines. The innovation processes in the prominent countries are reconstructed in order to show starting points to the promotion of successful innovations. An international comparison of the efficiency and competitive ability with the most important European and non-European countries is performed. This regards the action fields: Energy production, energy efficiency, material efficiency, sustainable mobility, sustainable water management, waste management and recycling economy, white biotechnology, nanotechnology.

  13. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    OpenAIRE

    Arfaoui Mongi; Ben Rejeb Aymen

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We als...

  14. Generation cost frontier analysis, dynamic market adjustment, and strategic gaming: Integrated tools for benchmarking, competitive market analysis, and strategy formulation under conditions of uncertainty in the transition to a competitive electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corio, M.R.; Bellucci, J.W.; Boyd, G.A.; Perl, K.E.

    1998-07-01

    The authors describe a three dimensional frontier consisting of: spending, availability/reliability, and utilization/heat rate. To determine optimal behavior in a future deregulated market, one must also find the optimal adjustment path from present to long-run frontier operation, and the optimal strategic action/response as determined by game theory. One can also perform more limited optimizations along either the two dimensional spending/reliability or spending/utilization frontiers. Although the authors mainly discuss optimizing existing domestic plants, frontier analysis could easily be applied to an electric producer's plants or acquisition targets internationally. Efficient operation saves money even in countries where electric markets are still regulated and can also confer indirect environmental benefits. AER is also applying these frontier analysis and game theory techniques to environmental decision-making, specifically to environmental retrofit decisions.

  15. Generation cost frontier analysis, dynamic market adjustment, and strategic gaming: Integrated tools for benchmarking, competitive market analysis, and strategy formulation under conditions of uncertainty in the transition to a competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corio, M.R.; Bellucci, J.W.; Boyd, G.A.; Perl, K.E.

    1998-01-01

    The authors describe a three dimensional frontier consisting of: spending, availability/reliability, and utilization/heat rate. To determine optimal behavior in a future deregulated market, one must also find the optimal adjustment path from present to long-run frontier operation, and the optimal strategic action/response as determined by game theory. One can also perform more limited optimizations along either the two dimensional spending/reliability or spending/utilization frontiers. Although the authors mainly discuss optimizing existing domestic plants, frontier analysis could easily be applied to an electric producer's plants or acquisition targets internationally. Efficient operation saves money even in countries where electric markets are still regulated and can also confer indirect environmental benefits. AER is also applying these frontier analysis and game theory techniques to environmental decision-making, specifically to environmental retrofit decisions

  16. The effect of different needs, decisionmaking processes and networkstructures on investor behavior and stock market dynamics : a simulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, Arvid O.I.; Jager, Wander

    2004-01-01

    Striking investor and stock market behaviour have been recurrent items in the worldwide press for the recent past. Crashes and hypes like the Internet bubble are often hard to explain using existing finance frameworks. Therefore, the authors provide a complementing multitheoretical framework that is

  17. The study of socio economic factors’ influence on the capacity dynamics of the pharmaceutical market in contracting conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А. А. Kotvitska

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available For the effective functioning of pharmaceutical companies in the current economic conditions it is necessary to carry out product policy aimed to expanding the range of medicines that are most popular. In order to make the efficient product range of drugs in the pharmaceutical industrial enterprises the aim of our research was an analysis of the socio economic factors affecting the quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market on the example of a group of dexketoprofen. Materials and methods. During the research we used retrospective, logical, correlation-regression methods, mathematical modeling and methods of factor analysis. In order to determine the dependence of the influence of socio economic factors on the quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market and prediction of its development, we developed and tested on the example of a group of dexketoprofen the method of predicting the capacity of the pharmaceutical market with the definition of factors influencing its size, which is based on the correlation-regression method of analysis and which consists of eight main stages. Results. The article presents the results of the study of the impact of various socio economic factors on the development of quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market. Considered twenty three factors combined into six groups. According to the results of correlation analysis, 14 factors that have the greatest impact on sales are selected. Using a step-by-step regression method, a regression model was developed, which included such factors as the average monthly wage and household expenditure on healthcare. The prediction of the quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market for 2018 is carried out on the basis of extrapolation of the values of the factors that have the most effect on the resultant variable. Conclusions. A method for predicting the size of the potential of market of dexketoprofen based on multiple regression was developed. This

  18. Papers of the Canadian Institute's 8. annual North American pipelines and storage conference : update on critical infrastructure developments and market dynamics shaping the North American grid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Leaders and experts from the petroleum and natural gas industry outlined some of the recent changes that have taken place in the North America gas and electricity industry. The relationship between pipeline and storage capacity was discussed with reference to how the connection affects prices at North American storage hubs. The topics of discussion ranged from the challenges associated with declines in capacity and market dynamics, to how gas marketability will be affected by the slowdown in pipeline development in North America. The investment community offered advice on long-run value creation in natural gas. The current state of development of Arctic gas was highlighted along with a review of how growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) is changing the role of gas infrastructure in North America. It was noted that although markets will work to balance supply and demand, there is a need for new sources of North American supply to meet growing long-term demand. The fall-off in U.S. domestic natural gas supplies combined with low storage levels has created a supply crisis. The conference featured 19 presentations, of which 4 have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  19. Evaluating impact of market changes on increasing cell-load variation in dynamic cellular manufacturing systems using a hybrid Tabu search and simulated annealing algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aidin Delgoshaei

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new method is proposed for scheduling dynamic cellular manufacturing systems (D-CMS in the presence of uncertain product demands. The aim of this method is to control the process of trading off between in-house manufacturing and outsourcing while product demands are uncertain and can be varied from period to period. To solve the proposed problem, a hybrid Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing are developed to overcome hardness of the proposed model and then results are compared with a Branch and Bound and Simulated Annealing algorithms. A Taguchi method (L_27 orthogonal optimization is used to estimate parameters of the proposed method in order to solve experiments derived from literature. An in-depth analysis is conducted on the results in consideration of various factors. For evaluating the system imbalance in dynamic market demands, a new measuring index is developed. Our findings indicate that the uncertain condition of market demands affects the routing of product parts and may induce machine-load variations that yield to cell-load diversity. The results showed that the proposed hybrid method can provide solutions with better quality.

  20. Contagion and Dynamic Correlation of the Main European Stock Index Futures Markets: A Time-frequency Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Tiberiu Albulescu , Claudiu; Goyeau , Daniel; Tiwari , Aviral ,

    2015-01-01

    International audience; In this paper, we examine the financial contagion and dynamic correlation between three European stock index futures, namely FTSE 100, DAX 30 and CAC 40. For this purpose we resort to a continuous wavelet transform framework and we cover the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis period. More precisely, we analyze the power spectrum of the series, the wavelet coherency and the average dynamic correlation before and after turbulence episodes occurred after the outburst ...

  1. Bridging the European Wind Energy Market and a Future Renewable Hydrogen-Inclusive Economy. A Dynamic Techno-economic Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, S.; Peteves, S.D.

    2006-01-01

    The study establishes the link between the growing wind market and the emerging hydrogen market of the European Union, in a so-called 'wind-hydrogen strategy'. It considers specifically the diversion of wind electricity, as a wind power control mechanism in high wind penetration situations, for the production of renewable electrolytic hydrogen - a potentially important component of a renewable hydrogen-inclusive economy. The analysis examines the long-term competitiveness of a wind-hydrogen strategy via cost-benefit assessment. It indicates the duration and extent to which (financial) support, if any, would need to be provided in support of such a strategy, and the influence over time of certain key factors on the outcome

  2. The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Changing Market Dynamics and the Impact of Credit Supply and Aggregate Demand Sensitivity

    OpenAIRE

    Theoharry Grammatikos; Robert Vermeulen

    2012-01-01

    This paper highlights the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity on 91 US industries' stock performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We account explicitly for changes in the market model and investigate, next to stock returns, the changes in systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the financial crisis. The results show that leverage has a significantly positive effect on systematic risk changes during the financial crisis. After accounting for the chang...

  3. Market efficiency in the emerging securitized real estate markets

    OpenAIRE

    Schindler, Felix

    2010-01-01

    This paper tests the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for twelve emerging as well as for four developed securitized real estate markets from 1992 to 2009. Random walk properties of equity prices influence return dynamics, and market efficiency is often considered an essential criterion in the assessment of the functionality of markets and the asset pricing process, which is of significant relevance for emerging markets in particular. The analysis is based on autocorrelation tests ...

  4. The Marketing Audit as a Method of the Evaluation of the Marketing Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaňa, Kamil; Černá, Ľubica

    2012-12-01

    The growing complexity of the current market environment needs a more systematic evaluation process of the organizational marketing performance to deal with the dynamic market. This paper deals with marketing audit as a comprehensive assessment of all angles of marketing operation in an organization and also deals with systematic evaluation of plans, objectives, strategies, activities and organizational structure as well as marketing staff.

  5. Market liquidity and financial stability.

    OpenAIRE

    Crockett, A.

    2008-01-01

    Stability in financial institutions and in financial markets are closely intertwined. Banks and other financial institutions need liquid markets through which to conduct risk management. And markets need the back-up liquidity lines provided by financial institutions. Market liquidity depends not only on objective, exogenous factors, but also on endogenous market dynamics. Central banks responsible for systemic stability need to consider how far their traditional responsibility for the health ...

  6. Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries

    OpenAIRE

    Filis, George; Degiannakis, S.; Floros, C.

    2011-01-01

    The paper investigates the time-varying correlation between stock market prices and oil prices for oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. A DCC-GARCH-GJR approach is employed to test the above hypothesis based on data from six countries; Oil-exporting: Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Oil-importing: USA, Germany, Netherlands. The contemporaneous correlation results show that i) although time-varying correlation does not differ for oil-importing and oil-exporting economies, ii) the correlation i...

  7. Optimal Market Design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boone, J.; Goeree, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces three methodological advances to study the optimal design of static and dynamic markets. First, we apply a mechanism design approach to characterize all incentive-compatible market equilibria. Second, we conduct a normative analysis, i.e. we evaluate alternative competition and

  8. Marketing technology in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamegawa, Kenichi

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we incorporate a marketing technology into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model by assuming a matching friction for consumption. An improvement in matching can be interpreted as an increase in matching technology, which we call marketing technology because of similar properties. Using a simulation analysis, we confirm that a positive matching technology shock can increase output and consumption.

  9. Dynamic Portfolio Strategies in the European Corporate Bond Market : 30th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2017

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Pieterse-Bloem (Mary); W.F.C. Verschoor (Willem); Z. Qian (Zhaowen); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we propose a dynamic portfolio strategy for European corporate bonds based on a two-factor pricing model. We introduce a strategy in which we forecast both future factors as well as bonds' future exposure to these factor. Using a unique dataset that is representative for

  10. Marketing; Il marketing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muscigna, M [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). Dipt. Innovazione

    1999-07-01

    The report discusses marketing strategies oriented to the organizations and analyzes its critical factors, which determine the success of the organization activity. [Italian] Il rapporto analizza i caratteri delle strategie del marketing orientato all'impresa. Vengono infine analizzati i fattori critici che determinano il successo o l'insuccesso delle scelte aziendali.

  11. Marketing; Il marketing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muscigna, M. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). Dipt. Innovazione

    1999-07-01

    The report discusses marketing strategies oriented to the organizations and analyzes its critical factors, which determine the success of the organization activity. [Italian] Il rapporto analizza i caratteri delle strategie del marketing orientato all'impresa. Vengono infine analizzati i fattori critici che determinano il successo o l'insuccesso delle scelte aziendali.

  12. On the Design of Artificial Stock Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); A. de Bruin (Arie); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractArtificial stock markets are designed with the aim to study and understand market dynamics by representing (part of) real stock markets. Since there is a large variety of real stock markets with several partially observable elements and hidden processes, artificial markets differ

  13. QTL mapping in multiple populations and development stages reveals dynamic quantitative trait loci for fruit size in cucumbers of different market classes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Yiqun; Colle, Marivi; Wang, Yuhui; Yang, Luming; Rubinstein, Mor; Sherman, Amir; Ophir, Ron; Grumet, Rebecca

    2015-09-01

    QTL analysis in multi-development stages with different QTL models identified 12 consensus QTLs underlying fruit elongation and radial growth presenting a dynamic view of genetic control of cucumber fruit development. Fruit size is an important quality trait in cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) of different market classes. However, the genetic and molecular basis of fruit size variations in cucumber is not well understood. In this study, we conducted QTL mapping of fruit size in cucumber using F2, F2-derived F3 families and recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a cross between two inbred lines Gy14 (North American picking cucumber) and 9930 (North China fresh market cucumber). Phenotypic data of fruit length and diameter were collected at three development stages (anthesis, immature and mature fruits) in six environments over 4 years. QTL analysis was performed with three QTL models including composite interval mapping (CIM), Bayesian interval mapping (BIM), and multiple QTL mapping (MQM). Twenty-nine consistent and distinct QTLs were detected for nine traits from multiple mapping populations and QTL models. Synthesis of information from available fruit size QTLs allowed establishment of 12 consensus QTLs underlying fruit elongation and radial growth, which presented a dynamic view of genetic control of cucumber fruit development. Results from this study highlighted the benefits of QTL analysis with multiple QTL models and different mapping populations in improving the power of QTL detection. Discussion was presented in the context of domestication and diversifying selection of fruit length and diameter, marker-assisted selection of fruit size, as well as identification of candidate genes for fruit size QTLs in cucumber.

  14. A Comparison Between a Dynamic and Static Approach to Asset Management Using CAPM Models on the Australian Securities Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionigi Gerace

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the capital asset pricing model being one of the most influential mod¬els in modern portfolio theory, it has also been a victim of criticism in numerous academic papers. Its assumptions which seem to be rather unre¬alistic, have caused many academics to improve the model by relaxing some of its restrictive statements. In this journal article, we compare the performance of an optimal portfolio of securities in the Australian securities market by constructing two theoretical portfolios; one using the capital asset pricing model which uses a single beta throughout a static investment horizon; and another, which allows the op¬timal portfolio to be rebalanced each week with an adjusted beta. The performance of the two theoretical portfolios is compared to determine the superior model. Overall, findings showed that due to rebalancing of the portfolio, the multiple period model was the superior model based on before and after transaction cost returns.

  15. Strategic logistics service provider selection influenced by relationships, cost and market dynamics - a multi-factorial case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tambo, Torben

    2012-01-01

    Selection of logistics service providers (LSPs) is regarded critical and complex. Relationships tend to last for many years and have a critical role in the architecting of supply chains. Occasionally, relationships between buyer and LSP come to a crossroad of termination, extension or change......; attrition of relationships can be caused by poor quality, changed market conditions, changed management, changed operational conditions on either side, and moves from competitors. This study uses a case-based methodology to provide an in-depth account of business motivations in relationship development...... in LSP selection. The study presents a tendering process as a fulcrum of "non-conformant‟ behaviour and unexpected outcome. Major findings are that contract-bound services and cost structures seem to drift into less transparent and informal patterns of interactions over time; this is wearing...

  16. Marketing small animal theriogenology services--one perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, J A

    2007-08-01

    Once a decision is made to add small animal theriogenology services to a practice, marketing strategies must be developed and implemented to attract clients to the new services. Marketing strategies for the niche market of theriogenology include start-up marketing methods, referral programs, internal marketing, and continued marketing. Marketing theriogenology services is a dynamic, ongoing process that never ends.

  17. Livestock Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futrell, Gene; And Others

    This marketing unit focuses on the seasonal and cyclical patterns of livestock markets. Cash marketing, forward contracting, hedging in the futures markets, and the options markets are examined. Examples illustrate how each marketing tool may be useful in gaining a profit on livestock and cutting risk exposure. The unit is organized in the…

  18. A dynamic approach to environmental compliance decisions in U.S. Electricity Market: The Acid Rain Program revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancevic, Pedro Ignacio

    2017-01-01

    The Acid Rain Program (ARP) was implemented in 1995. Since then, coal-fired boilers have had to choose among three main compliance alternatives: purchase pollution permits; switch to an alternative lower-sulfur coal; or adopt a scrubber. This decision problem is driven by the evolution of several economic variables and is revised when significant changes (to prices, quality of inputs, output level, technology, transport costs, regulations, among others) occur. Using a structural dynamic discrete choice model, I recover cost parameters and use them to evaluate two different counterfactual policies. The results confirm there is a trade-off between fuel switching and scrubbing costs (with the latter having a higher investment cost and a lower variable cost), and also the existence of regional heterogeneity. Finally, the ARP implied cost savings of approximately $4.7 billions if compared to a uniform emission rate standard and $14.8 billions if compared to compulsory scrubbing for the 1995–2005 period. - Highlights: • With the cap-and-trade system of the ARP boilers had three main compliance options. • Purchase allowances; retrofit the boiler to burn low-sulfur coal; adopt scrubbers. • We develop and estimate a rigorous structural dynamic discrete choice model. • Trade-off between fuel switching and scrubbing (capital versus operating costs). • Cost savings from the ARP were substantial if compared to previous regulations.

  19. Value Chain Dynamics of Agri-Food Exports from Southern Mediterranean to the European Union: End-Market Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Mili

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This contribution explores the buyer side of the value chains of the main agricultural products exported from the Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs to the EU, taking Spain as an explorative case study in the broader European context. It draws on the Global Value Chain (GVC approach to provide new survey-based evidence for better profiling the opportunities and constraints for EU trade for orange, strawberry, tomato and olive oil imported from Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. The approach used complements inquiries using quantitative trade models usually based on aggregate sectoral level. Results show differences depending on the product and the country studied. There are in all cases multiple challenges to be solved at the origin of the value chain including better chain organization, further transparency and security, improvement in infrastructure and logistics, keeping transaction costs manageable at the same time. Consumer preferences in buyer markets when sourcing must be taken on the first place. The findings can have relevant policy implications in terms of prospective Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Agreements on agriculture and food.

  20. İlaç Sektöründe Pazar Paylarının Analizi: Yeni Lanchester Stratejisi ve Sistem Dinamikleri(Analysis of Market Shares in Pharmaceutical Industry: New Lanchester Strategy and System Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aşkın ÖZDAĞOĞLU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Today, many companies have developed different competition strategies with the purpose of reaching their institutional targets. Developing of the competition strategies and reaction to the instantaneous changes according to the market conditions are possible with the detailed and dynamic analysis of the competitors. In this study, how to change the market shares of the pharmaceutical product companies that compete in a certain region, depending upon the sales force have been analyzed. Lanchester’s Laws have been used for the calculations made in order to determine the market shares. All calculations have been integrated in the frame of system dynamic model in the long run analysis of the market shares and forecasting the long term results of the different sales forces. Different scenarios and long term effects have been analyzed for changes of sales forces via this model. The study ended up with obtaining the potential market share changes of the pharmaceutical product in the case study for the long run which would support the marketing activities.

  1. Market adoption of reverse factoring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iacono, Umberto Dello; Reindorp, Matthew; Dellaert, Nico

    2015-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to show that market dynamics can significantly influence th lifecycle and value of a supply chain finance (SCF) arrangement. Design/methodology/approach - Based on a review of scientific and trade literature, the author construct a model of market dynamics for

  2. Goodness-of-Fit versus Significance: A CAPM Selection with Dynamic Betas Applied to the Brazilian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Ricardo de Pinho Ronzani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM with time-varying betas is considered. These betas evolve over time, conditional on financial and non-financial variables. Indeed, the model proposed by Adrian and Franzoni (2009 is adapted to assess the behavior of some selected Brazilian equities. For each equity, several models are fitted, and the best model is chosen based on goodness-of-fit tests and parameters significance. Finally, using the selected dynamic models, VaR (Value-at-Risk measures are calculated. We can conclude that CAPM with time-varying betas provide less conservative VaR measures than those based on CAPM with static betas or historical VaR.

  3. Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Malhotra, Rahul; Love, Sean R; Liu, Chang; Do, Young

    2016-03-23

    Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

  4. Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, Lawrence E

    2001-01-01

    Beginning text presents complete theoretical treatment of mechanical model systems and deals with technological applications. Topics include introduction to calculus of vectors, particle motion, dynamics of particle systems and plane rigid bodies, technical applications in plane motions, theory of mechanical vibrations, and more. Exercises and answers appear in each chapter.

  5. UNDERGROUND ECONOMY, GDP AND STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caus Vasile Aurel

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Economic growth is affected by the size and dynamics of underground economy. Determining this size is a subject of research for many authors. In this paper we present the relationship between underground economy dynamics and the dynamics of stock markets. The observations are based on regression used by Tanzi (1983 and the relationship between GDP and stock market presented in Tudor (2008. The conclusion of this paper is that the dynamics of underground economy is influenced by dynamic of financial markets. Thus, using specific stock market mathematical tools analysis, one can analyze the dynamic of underground economy

  6. Economic analysis of upgrading aging residential buildings in China based on dynamic energy consumption and energy price in a market economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang Jinlong; Lu Meijun; Li Bing; Wang Chunyuan; Hokao, Kazunori

    2011-01-01

    This article employed a standard LCC to conduct economic analysis of upgrading the aging residential buildings in China. According to the current situation, an interest rate of 6%, an inflation rate of 3%, an increase rate of annual energy savings of 2% and an increase rate of electricity price of 2% were assumed in the method. The results indicated that only relying on gradually increasing electricity price and governments' subsidies was not enough. After detailed analysis of the energy saving measures and the distribution of all benefits from building energy retrofit, it was found that actually only 1/3 of original cost was spent only for energy savings, the second 1/3 for both energy savings and good facade appearance and occupants should share the last 1/3 because even if without energy retrofit, they would have to pay the part too. The corresponding results proved that the first 1/3 of investment cost could be drawn back within the residue life cycle, and so the investment could be accepted in a sheer market economy. In the end, a model about distribution of investment cost of and benefits was proposed to adapt the market economy to overcome the financial problems in China. - Highlights: → The paper uses LCC to conduct economic analysis on building energy retrofit of China. → LCC considers dynamic energy use, energy price and economic development of China. → Only relying on increasing electricity price and governments' subsidies is not enough. → Actually only 1/3 of original cost is spent only for energy saving, can be drawn back. → Investors, governments and occupants should respectively pay 1/3 of investment cost.

  7. Long-Term Urban Market Dynamics Reveal Increased Bushmeat Carcass Volume despite Economic Growth and Proactive Environmental Legislation on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Drew T.; Woloszynek, Stephen; Morra, Wayne A.; Honarvar, Shaya; Linder, Joshua M.; Gonder, Mary Katherine; O’Connor, Michael P.; Hearn, Gail W.

    2015-01-01

    Bushmeat hunting is extensive in west and central Africa as both a means for subsistence and for commercial gain. Commercial hunting represents one of the primary threats to wildlife in the region, and confounding factors have made it challenging to examine how external factors influence the commercial bushmeat trade. Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea is a small island with large tracts of intact forest that support sizeable populations of commercially valuable vertebrates, especially endemic primates. The island also has a low human population and has experienced dramatic economic growth and rapid development since the mid-1990’s. From October 1997 – September 2010, we monitored the largest bushmeat market on Bioko in Malabo, recording over 197,000 carcasses for sale. We used these data to analyze the dynamics of the market in relation to political events, environmental legislation, and rapid economic growth. Our findings suggest that bushmeat hunting and availability increased in parallel with the growth of Equatorial Guinea’s GDP and disposable income of its citizens. During this 13-year study, the predominant mode of capture shifted from trapping to shotguns. Consequently, carcass volume and rates of taxa typically captured with shotguns increased significantly, most notably including intensified hunting of Bioko's unique and endangered monkey fauna. Attempts to limit bushmeat sales, including a 2007 ban on primate hunting and trade, were only transiently effective. The hunting ban was not enforced, and was quickly followed by a marked increase in bushmeat hunting compared to hunting rates prior to the ban. Our results emphasize the negative impact that rapid development and unenforced legislation have had on Bioko’s wildlife, and demonstrate the need for strong governmental support if conservation strategies are to be successful at preventing extinctions of tropical wildlife. PMID:26230504

  8. Market, Regulation, Market, Regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Christian; Galland, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    barriers to trade in Europe, realized the free movement of products by organizing progressively several orders of markets and regulation. Based on historical and institutional documents, on technical publications, and on interviews, this article relates how the European Commission and the Member States had......This paper focuses on the European Regulatory system which was settled both for opening the Single Market for products and ensuring the consumers' safety. It claims that the New Approach and Standardization, and the Global Approach to conformity assessment, which suppressed the last technical...... alternatively recourse to markets and to regulations, at the three main levels of the New Approach Directives implementation. The article focuses also more specifically on the Medical Devices sector, not only because this New Approach sector has long been controversial in Europe, and has recently been concerned...

  9. Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China's housing market fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xing-Chun; He, Ling-Yun

    2015-08-01

    There is a bitter controversy over what drives the housing price in China in the existing literature. In this paper, we investigate the underlying driving force behind housing price fluctuations in China, especially focusing on the role of housing demand shock with that of money supply shock in explaining housing price movements, by a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Empirical results suggest that it is housing demand, instead of money supply, that mainly drives China's housing price movements. Relevant policy implication is further discussed, namely, whether to consider the housing price fluctuations in the conduct of monetary policy. By means of the policy simulations, we find that a real house price-augmented money supply rule is a better monetary policy for China's economy stabilization. 1. Investment refers to fixed capital investment. 2. Housing price refers to national average housing price. Quarterly data on housing price during the period of our work are not directly available. However, monthly data of the value of sales on housing and sale volume on housing can be directly obtained from National Bureau of Statistics of China. We add up the monthly data and calculate one quarter's housing price by dividing the value of housing sales by its sale volume in one quarter. 3. M2 means the broad money supply in China.

  10. Trends of shipping markets development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Nowosielski

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Shipping markets are dependent on international trade transactions that generate transport needs. These needs can dynamically change depending on global natural resources and commodity markets situation. The changes affecting shipping markets can also be caused by changes to the existing cargo flows and by establishing new ones in different geographies. It is anticipated that in the future shipping markets will change, visible by a decline in shipping in North America and Europe and an increase in Asia.

  11. Effective managed care marketing strategies for evolving markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, M K

    1997-11-01

    In a world of increased competition and changing consumer expectations, one of the keys to a fiscally sound health plan is having a dynamic marketing strategy that takes into account the shifting attitudes of consumers as managed care markets mature. The primary goal of any health plan marketing strategy should be the acquisition and retention of members. Providing cost-efficient and convenient service for enrollees, offering low or no deductibles, having convenient office locations, and minimizing paper-work are important elements of such a marketing strategy. Factors such as brand awareness and the perceived image of a health plan also are important considerations in acquiring and retaining market share. The relative importance of these consumer satisfaction criteria change as a managed care market evolves and matures. Financial and marketing managers, thus, should ascertain their market's stage of development and respond with appropriate marketing strategies.

  12. Inbound marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Popek, Tomáš

    2011-01-01

    In my work I focus on Inbound Marketing, which represents a new perspective on marketing, that has not been given the attention it deserves. It is a combination of existing and proven marketing methods that are used to obtain new customers with minimal marketing costs to the organization. The first section of my work is devoted to defining the concept of Inbound Marketing definitions and explanations. Furthermore, I present a list of instruments used in Inbound Marketing, and showcase the def...

  13. Carbon auctions, energy markets and market power: An experimental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dormady, Noah C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides an experimental analysis of a simultaneous energy-emissions market under conditions of market power. The experimental design employs real-world institutional features; including stochastic demand, permit banking, inter-temporal (multi-round) dynamics, a tightening cap, and resale. The results suggest that dominant firms can utilize energy-emissions market linkages to simultaneously inflate the price of energy and suppress the price of emissions allowances. Whereas under prior market designs, regulators were concerned with dominant firms exercising their market power over the emissions market to exclude rivals and manipulate the permit market by hoarding permits; the results of this paper suggest that this strategy is less profitable to dominant firms in contemporary auction-based markets than strategic capacity withholding in the energy market and associated demand reduction in the emissions market. - Highlights: • Laboratory simulation of joint energy-emissions market. • Evaluates market power under collusion and real-world institutional features. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to inflate energy prices. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to suppress emissions prices. • Supply withholding is an implicit demand reduction in the emissions market

  14. Milleks päästa Concordiat? / Alec Charles

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Charles, Alec

    2003-01-01

    Concordia ülikooli õppejõud, töötajad ja tudengid lõid hiljuti MTÜ Concordia Akadeemiline Ühisus, tahetakse jätkata akadeemilist tegevust Haridus- ja Teadusministeeriumi juures registreeritud Concordia Balti Ülikoolis

  15. Baby talk : semiotics, psychoanalysis and the Teletubbies / Alec Charles

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Charles, Alec

    2005-01-01

    Autor analüüsib Briti laste telesarja "Teletupsud" tekstuaalset struktuuri. Analüüsi aluseks on võetud Sigmund Freudi puberteedieelse seksuaalsuse ja prantsue semiootiku Jacques Lacani psüühilise arengu faaside käsitlus

  16. Social Media Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollensen, Svend; Raman, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Social media marketing can be understood as a group of Internet-based applications that build on the foundations of Web 2.0 and that then allows the creation and exchange of ‘User Generated Content’. In the ‘Bowling’ marketing world, marketers target certain customer groups and send out...... this is a very direct one-way communication approach. In a social media marketing world, the bowling metaphor does not fit anymore. On this arena marketing can be better described as playing “Pinball”: Companies serve up a “marketing ball” (brands and brand-building messages) into a dynamic and chaotic market...... environment. The “marketing ball” is then diverted and often accelerated by social media “bumpers”, which change the ball’s course in chaotic ways. Occasionally, the marketing ball will come back to the company. At this point, the firm (brand) has to use the flippers to interact and throw it back...

  17. Sustainable Marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, van Y.K.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, three different conceptions of sustainable marketing are discussed and compared. These different conceptions are referred to as social, green, and critical sustainable marketing. Social sustainable marketing follows the logic of demand-driven marketing management and places the

  18. TRICARE Marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-10-21

    definitive. It stated that: Marketing is much more than advertising or promotion materials. Marketing is a foundation for building a business strategy ; it...objectives, and strategies for marketing TRICARE. However, the Director provided the plan for information; none of the recipients of the plan were...overarching goal and extensively in the marketing strategies section. Specifically, the Marketing Plan states that strategies employed to accomplish

  19. Hospital marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Tony

    2003-01-01

    This article looks at a prescribed academic framework for various criteria that serve as a checklist for marketing performance that can be applied to hospital marketing organizations. These guidelines are drawn from some of Dr. Noel Capon of Columbia University's book Marketing Management in the 21st Century and applied to actual practices of hospital marketing organizations. In many ways this checklist can act as a "marketing" balanced scorecard to verify performance effectiveness and develop opportunities for innovation.

  20. Internet marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Zelený, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In the bachelor thesis are introduced theoretical concepts of the Internet and marketing, accented the need of marketing mix along with its specifics of the internet environment. Next is interpreted which tools can be used for marketing of firms and which marketing instruments are to be deployed. Final chapter illustrates socio-demographics of Czech internet users along with media market allocation from the perspective of all media as well as in the segment of the Internet.

  1. Money Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Marvin Goodfriend

    2011-01-01

    Money markets offer monetary services and short-term finance in the capital market with the credit support of institutional sponsors. Investors finance money market instruments at low interest because their salability on short notice confers an implicit monetary services yield. Low interest attracts borrowers to money markets. The fragile equilibrium depends on collective confidence in the credit quality of instruments supplied to the market. Federal Reserve monetary and credit policies have ...

  2. Marketing in the Emerging Markets of Latin America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinov, Marin Alexandrov

    . Addressing a broad variety of historical, political, economic, social, cultural and legal issues, the book offers unique insights into the enormous opportunities and challenges the region presents for implementing effective marketing strategies. Macro marketing issues such as regional integration, foreign......Marketing in the Emerging Markets of Latin America provides a much needed analysis of business and marketing in Latin America. The book highlights the diverse characteristics of the Latin American business and marketing environment as well as the dynamic nature of regional and country markets...... trade and direct investment are considered within the context of specific countries, as are the micro aspects of a company's marketing activities. The book is an extremely valuable resource for academics, practitioners and anyone interested in doing business in or with Latin America....

  3. SECURITIES MARKET AS AN INDICATOR OF INNOVATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Askinadze

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a potential possibility to use stock market Indices as an indicator of emerging innovative economy. The focal point is the significance of taking into account the stock market Indices’ dynamics and volatility.

  4. SECURITIES MARKET AS AN INDICATOR OF INNOVATION

    OpenAIRE

    Victor M. Askinadze

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a potential possibility to use stock market Indices as an indicator of emerging innovative economy. The focal point is the significance of taking into account the stock market Indices’ dynamics and volatility.

  5. Do Markets Mitigate Misperceptions of Feedback?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampmann, Christian Erik; Sterman, John D.

    2014-01-01

    Experimental studies of dynamic decisionmaking generally showpoor performance.Most, however, lack market mechanisms, specifically price setting, while economic theory suggests markets should mitigate individual decision errors. We develop experimental markets to explore whether different price...... rules for each actor; results reject the hypothesis of rationality at the individual level but support behavioral decision rules consistent with bounded rationality. Simulations using the estimated decision rules reproduce key features of market dynamics. Decision timing data and verbal protocols show...

  6. Overview of the U.S. northeast market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, W.

    1998-01-01

    The focus of this presentation was the natural gas market in the northeastern United States. Topics addressed included: gas market requirements, gas transportation proposals, and market pricing dynamics. figs

  7. Marketing fundamentals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redmond, W H

    2001-01-01

    This chapter outlines current marketing practice from a managerial perspective. The role of marketing within an organization is discussed in relation to efficiency and adaptation to changing environments. Fundamental terms and concepts are presented in an applied context. The implementation of marketing plans is organized around the four P's of marketing: product (or service), promotion (including advertising), place of delivery, and pricing. These are the tools with which marketers seek to better serve their clients and form the basis for competing with other organizations. Basic concepts of strategic relationship management are outlined. Lastly, alternate viewpoints on the role of advertising in healthcare markets are examined.

  8. Politisk marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Disciplinen politisk marketing er udbredt i mange vestlige lande. Imidlertid er kendskabet til politisk marketing i Danmark bemærkelsesværdigt lavt. I det lys er denne bog Politisk Marketing: Personer, Partier & Praksis den første bog i Danmark, som -ud fra marketing- indkredser de sidste mange års...... brudflader i dansk politik. Gennem ti bidrag fra forskere og praktikere udskraber forfatterne et DNA for feltet politisk marketing. Kort sagt kan du i denne bog finde svarene på: Hvad er politisk marketing? Hvordan har det udviklet sig? Og hvilke konsekvenser har dette fænomen for vælgere, partier og...

  9. Driving market dynamics with technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sollecito, L.

    2002-01-01

    As a result of changes in the role of hardware, software and communications in the management of all types of services, including electrical utilities, companies are more and more forced to rethink their approach to every aspect of doing business and to pay more attention to integrated, enterprise-wide approaches. In the electric industry, deregulation and the need to operate more competitively, have been primarily responsible for forcing the issue of the integration. As customer demand becomes increasingly more complex, and the growth in power generation is putting more and more strain on the aging existing infrastructure, many utilities are looking to move distributed generation closer to the load. While distributed generation promises to deliver a number of compelling advantages to end users, it will also place significant onus on the utilities to find more efficient ways to monitor and control usages. Utilities will be forced to examine ways to track and match loads for protection and generation over multiple devices, extract information in various forms and access timely information to ensure overall stability. Forced to re-think their approach, utility companies increasingly come to realize that the way to win this battle is through technology. Relay and communications technology in particular, are significantly changing the utility landscape, revolutionizing the way utilities and industry can manage their transmission, generation and protection needs. The move from leased phone lines to an array of microwave and fiber optic communications that allow for the delivery of data over the Ethernet or any other protocol at unprecedented speed, is just one example of the changes that are taking place. At the same time, wireless connectivity and Internet-based monitoring and control are making strong advances toward becoming increasingly prevalent factors in substation automation. Web-enabled services that are designed to deliver monitoring and administrative functions are fast becoming available at a fraction of the cost of more conventional SCADA systems, with the result that users no longer have to wait for a 'critical mass' of substations to achieve economies of scale. A brief overview of available technology suggests that the technology is at hand to enable utilities to integrate their hardware, software and communications systems in such a way that information systems become their productivity weapon of choice in the years to come

  10. Identifying internet marketing principles relevant to generic marketers / Ayesha Lian Bevan-Dye

    OpenAIRE

    Bevan-Dye, Ayesha Lian

    2005-01-01

    To deliver the type of marketing graduate that meets industry demand necessitates that marketing curricula content be continuously updated to keep pace with the dynamic marketing environment. One of the major trends influencing the twenty-first century marketing environment is the advent of the Internet and substantial growth in Internet usage and Internet-based commerce. Not only is the Internet driving major marketing environmental change, it is also emerging as a new marketing tool of sign...

  11. Market Orientation Capabilities: A Study of Learning Processes in Market-Oriented Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Silkoset, Ragnhild

    2009-01-01

    The literature operates with three perspectives on market orientation. These include market orientation as behavior (Kohli and Jaworski 1990; Narver and Slater 1990), market orientation as a unique resource (Hunt and Morgan 1995) and market orientation as a dynamic learning capability (Sinkula 1994; Day 1994b). A company's level of market orientation will vary with regard to the perspectives, including factors affecting a company’s degree of market orientation and the effect...

  12. To market, to market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lieberman, J.I.

    1992-01-01

    Senator Lieberman and three fellow members of Congress introduced the CO 2 Offset Policy Efficiency Act (COPE), which incorporates the use of marketable permits to reduce CO 2 emissions. For COPE to be fully effective, however, several key criteria must be met: (1) establishing initial baselines will be critical to ensure that emission reductions are credited properly; (2) accurate plant-by-plant monitoring must be in place to ensure that claimed reductions have actually occurred; (3) the program must include a strong enforcement provision to prevent evasion and to punish violators with substantial automatic fines. COPE imposes a sanction equal to roughly four times the estimated cost of offsets; the sanctions would be paid before enforcement proceedings commence. The urgency and complexity of global warming requires us to break with the past and develop new ways of delaying with pollution, Senator Lieberman feels by giving the market a chance to work on behalf of the environment, the sale of emission allowance will reduce CO 2 emissions in the most-efficient cost-effective way possible

  13. Understanding Financial Market States Using an Artificial Double Auction Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Kyubin; Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan

    2016-01-01

    The ultimate value of theories describing the fundamental mechanisms behind asset prices in financial systems is reflected in the capacity of such theories to understand these systems. Although the models that explain the various states of financial markets offer substantial evidence from the fields of finance, mathematics, and even physics, previous theories that attempt to address the complexities of financial markets in full have been inadequate. We propose an artificial double auction market as an agent-based model to study the origin of complex states in financial markets by characterizing important parameters with an investment strategy that can cover the dynamics of the financial market. The investment strategies of chartist traders in response to new market information should reduce market stability based on the price fluctuations of risky assets. However, fundamentalist traders strategically submit orders based on fundamental value and, thereby stabilize the market. We construct a continuous double auction market and find that the market is controlled by the proportion of chartists, Pc. We show that mimicking the real state of financial markets, which emerges in real financial systems, is given within the range Pc = 0.40 to Pc = 0.85; however, we show that mimicking the efficient market hypothesis state can be generated with values less than Pc = 0.40. In particular, we observe that mimicking a market collapse state is created with values greater than Pc = 0.85, at which point a liquidity shortage occurs, and the phase transition behavior is described at Pc = 0.85.

  14. Globalization of the art market [emerging art markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velthuis, O.

    2015-01-01

    Since the 1980s art markets have developed rapidly outside of Europe and the USA. In the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) this development has been particularly dynamic. With aggregate sales estimated at €11.5 billion, China is the second largest market for art and

  15. SPORT MARKETING

    OpenAIRE

    Omer Špirtović; Danilo Aćimović; Ahmet Međedović; Zoran Bogdanović

    2010-01-01

    Word „marketing“ comes from AngloSaxon linguistic domain and implies in a narrow sense the market. Under marketing, we consider certain process, which should create and solve relations of exchange between manufacturers on one side, and consumers on the other. Discussion about sport marketing implies its theoretical definition and generalization, and then its actual definition in sport environment. Sport marketing belongs to business function of sport organization and represents primaly an eco...

  16. Mobile marketing

    OpenAIRE

    KLEČKOVÁ, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    The main aim of this thesis was to provide a comprehensive overview of the mobile marketing and analyze selected campaigns of Czech mobile marketing in comparison to world successful campaigns. The research contained studying of available literature about the theme to gain general knowledge about the issue. The theoretical part of the thesis contains predominantly various definitions of mobile marketing and its tools, advantages of these tools and some information about Mobile Marketing Assoc...

  17. Marketing Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Andrýsková, Hana

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to examine current marketing efforts of AARON - the leading seller of digital cameras. I will analyze current marketing tools and suggest improvements in efficiency and effectiveness of these tools. Marketing strategy is a method of managing and coordinating efforts in marketing field so that the goals can be reached. The aim is to increase sales, turnover, revenues, profits, drive out competition and also to build up a corporate image and corporate culture. I will a...

  18. The Market Dynamics of Generic Medicines in the Private Sector of 19 Low and Middle Income Countries between 2001 and 2011: A Descriptive Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Warren A.; Wirtz, Veronika J.; Stephens, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This observational study investigates the private sector, retail pharmaceutical market of 19 low and middle income countries (LMICs) in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East/South Africa analyzing the relationships between volume market share of generic and originator medicines over a time series from 2001 to 2011. Over 5000 individual pharmaceutical substances were divided into generic (unbranded generic, branded generic medicines) and originator categories for each country, including the United States as a comparator. In 9 selected LMICs, the market share of those originator substances with the largest decrease over time was compared to the market share of their counterpart generic versions. Generic medicines (branded generic plus unbranded generic) represent between 70 and 80% of market share in the private sector of these LMICs which exceeds that of most European countries. Branded generic medicine market share is higher than that of unbranded generics in all three regions and this is in contrast to the U.S. Although switching from an originator to its generic counterpart can save money, this narrative in reality is complex at the level of individual medicines. In some countries, the market behavior of some originator medicines that showed the most temporal decrease, showed switching to their generic counterpart. In other countries such as in the Middle East/South Africa and Asia, the loss of these originators was not accompanied by any change at all in market share of the equivalent generic version. For those countries with a significant increase in generic medicines market share and/or with evidence of comprehensive “switching” to generic versions, notably in Latin America, it would be worthwhile to establish cause-effect relationships between pharmaceutical policies and uptake of generic medicines. The absence of change in the generic medicines market share in other countries suggests that, at a minimum, generic medicines have not been strongly

  19. The market dynamics of generic medicines in the private sector of 19 low and middle income countries between 2001 and 2011: a descriptive time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren A Kaplan

    Full Text Available This observational study investigates the private sector, retail pharmaceutical market of 19 low and middle income countries (LMICs in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East/South Africa analyzing the relationships between volume market share of generic and originator medicines over a time series from 2001 to 2011. Over 5000 individual pharmaceutical substances were divided into generic (unbranded generic, branded generic medicines and originator categories for each country, including the United States as a comparator. In 9 selected LMICs, the market share of those originator substances with the largest decrease over time was compared to the market share of their counterpart generic versions. Generic medicines (branded generic plus unbranded generic represent between 70 and 80% of market share in the private sector of these LMICs which exceeds that of most European countries. Branded generic medicine market share is higher than that of unbranded generics in all three regions and this is in contrast to the U.S. Although switching from an originator to its generic counterpart can save money, this narrative in reality is complex at the level of individual medicines. In some countries, the market behavior of some originator medicines that showed the most temporal decrease, showed switching to their generic counterpart. In other countries such as in the Middle East/South Africa and Asia, the loss of these originators was not accompanied by any change at all in market share of the equivalent generic version. For those countries with a significant increase in generic medicines market share and/or with evidence of comprehensive "switching" to generic versions, notably in Latin America, it would be worthwhile to establish cause-effect relationships between pharmaceutical policies and uptake of generic medicines. The absence of change in the generic medicines market share in other countries suggests that, at a minimum, generic medicines have not been

  20. The market dynamics of generic medicines in the private sector of 19 low and middle income countries between 2001 and 2011: a descriptive time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Warren A; Wirtz, Veronika J; Stephens, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This observational study investigates the private sector, retail pharmaceutical market of 19 low and middle income countries (LMICs) in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East/South Africa analyzing the relationships between volume market share of generic and originator medicines over a time series from 2001 to 2011. Over 5000 individual pharmaceutical substances were divided into generic (unbranded generic, branded generic medicines) and originator categories for each country, including the United States as a comparator. In 9 selected LMICs, the market share of those originator substances with the largest decrease over time was compared to the market share of their counterpart generic versions. Generic medicines (branded generic plus unbranded generic) represent between 70 and 80% of market share in the private sector of these LMICs which exceeds that of most European countries. Branded generic medicine market share is higher than that of unbranded generics in all three regions and this is in contrast to the U.S. Although switching from an originator to its generic counterpart can save money, this narrative in reality is complex at the level of individual medicines. In some countries, the market behavior of some originator medicines that showed the most temporal decrease, showed switching to their generic counterpart. In other countries such as in the Middle East/South Africa and Asia, the loss of these originators was not accompanied by any change at all in market share of the equivalent generic version. For those countries with a significant increase in generic medicines market share and/or with evidence of comprehensive "switching" to generic versions, notably in Latin America, it would be worthwhile to establish cause-effect relationships between pharmaceutical policies and uptake of generic medicines. The absence of change in the generic medicines market share in other countries suggests that, at a minimum, generic medicines have not been strongly promoted.

  1. Marketing 101.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Karla A.

    1997-01-01

    A marketing model for camps includes a mix of services, presentation, and communication elements that promote the virtues of camp, convince potential campers and their families of the benefits of camp, and successfully distinguish the camp from others. Includes resources related to marketing strategies, theme merchandise, and market trends…

  2. MARKET WATCH

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The hottest financial market topic of the moment could be the subprime loan crisis in the United States. The crisis has stormed the U.S. stock market, dragging it to its biggest falls in a single trading day. Other markets, such as Japan’s, were also vul

  3. Auto Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    <正> Editor’s notes: As China’s WTO entry is drawing near, Chinese people are witnessing the marketing activities of foreign automakers in China: establishing new firms and promoting new vehicles, etc. In face of the enormous Chinese market, foreign automakers are busy in establishing their brand images, fostering consumption population in order to take more market shares in the future.

  4. Service marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babić-Hodović Vesna

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of postindustrial society and services revolution created numerous changes in size of consumer demand, consumer reaction and priorities. Continuous change on the side of demand and offer must follow changes in marketing orientation. Leader in that change is services marketing which by knowing services range and all the changes builds a new concept called Relationship Marketing.

  5. Credit derivatives in emerging markets

    OpenAIRE

    Romain Rancière

    2002-01-01

    Credit Derivatives are securities that offer protection against credit or default risk of bonds or loans. The credit derivatives emerging market has grown rapidly and credit derivatives are widely used. This paper describes the emerging credit derivatives market structure. The current market activity is analyzed through elementary pricing dynamics and the study of the term structure of default risk. Focusing on the performance of credit derivatives in stress situation, including legal and mar...

  6. MARKETING STRATEGIES OF SMARTPHONES PRODUCERS

    OpenAIRE

    Markova V.; Tzinlin M.; Ge C.

    2017-01-01

    Smartphones global market is one of the most dynamically developing markets that can be characterized by high level of competition. The growth of smartphones homogeneity, which is a reduction in difference between technical and functional parameters of smartphones produced by various manufacturers, can be considered the market’s specific feature. The unique situation of high-tech product homogeneity in a fast-growing market is scantily described in specialized literature. The article shows ch...

  7. Customizing Prices in Online Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Werner Reinartz

    2002-01-01

    Dynamic pricing is the dynamic adjustment of prices to consumers depending on the value these customers attribute to a good. Underlying the concept of dynamic pricing is what marketers call price customization. Price customization is the charging of different prices to end consumers based on a discriminatory variable. Internet technology will serve as a great enabling tool for making dynamic pricing accessible to many industries.

  8. Marketing maloobchodu

    OpenAIRE

    Demuth, Jan

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is about the situation of retail marketing in Czech republic, with a special focus on in-store marketing instruments and activities. The goal of this work is to evaluate the application of these marketing instruments in a specific retail store. This chosen store is supermarket Billa. The first part of the thesis is offering theoretical base for in-store marketing activities and also presents the history of retail marketing in Czech republic. The second part is focusing on the situ...

  9. MARKETING CHANNELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljiljana Stošić Mihajlović

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Marketing channel is a set of entities and institutions, completion of distribution and marketing activities, attend the efficient and effective networking of producers and consumers. Marketing channels include the total flows of goods, money and information taking place between the institutions in the system of marketing, establishing a connection between them. The functions of the exchange, the physical supply and service activities, inherent in the system of marketing and trade. They represent paths which products and services are moving after the production, which will ultimately end up buying and eating by the user.

  10. Capacity Markets and Market Stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, Hoff

    2006-01-01

    The good news is that market stability can be achieved through a combination of longer-term contracts, auctions for far enough in the future to permit new entry, a capacity management system, and a demand curve. The bad news is that if and when stable capacity markets are designed, the markets may seem to be relatively close to where we started - with integrated resource planning. Market ideologues will find this anathema. (author)

  11. Market formation and market selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Raalte, C.L.J.P.

    1996-01-01

    The organization of markets is an important field of inquiry in modern economic theory. This monograph analyzes models which consider the formation and selection of markets. In these models, markets are organized by middlemen and used by traders. In Part I of the monograph, coalitions of middlemen

  12. Market Survey Turkey. Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-12-01

    The present market survey presents the Turkish power market and derives business opportunities and prospects for Dutch trade and industry. This market survey has been carried out for the following four, from time to time overlapping, sectors that have been identified by EVD as potential opportunities for Dutch small and medium-sized enterprises (SME): renewable energy, energy efficiency, electricity generation, electricity distribution

  13. World market of marketing research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuels John

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The value of the total world market market research in the year 2001 was US$15,890 million, a 2.8% increase on the previous year. This is the first of several articles to be published in Research World on the results from ESOMAR's latest annual study on the market research sector worldwide

  14. MARKETING STRATEGIES OF SMARTPHONES PRODUCERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markova V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Smartphones global market is one of the most dynamically developing markets that can be characterized by high level of competition. The growth of smartphones homogeneity, which is a reduction in difference between technical and functional parameters of smartphones produced by various manufacturers, can be considered the market’s specific feature. The unique situation of high-tech product homogeneity in a fast-growing market is scantily described in specialized literature. The article shows changeability of smartphones global market leaders and explains that the key success factor in such a mature market is marketing. Based on secondary information, marketing strategies of long standing market leader in sales Samsung and overtaking Apple companies are determined as well as strategies of contenders for leadership - Chinese companies Huawei and Lenovo. It is shown on Lenovo case that inexplicit positioning leads to a loss of the growing market share due to offensive marketing strategies of other Chinese companies. The research results broaden the knowledge of methodical potential of marketing strategies in companies’ activities in competitive markets of homogeneous high-tech products.

  15. World energy use in 2010: over 5% growth. Energy markets have combined crisis recovery and strong industry dynamism. Enerdata analyses the trends in energy demand, based on its 2010 data for G20 countries. May 5, 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Energy markets have combined crisis recovery and strong industry dynamism. Analysis of the energy consumption in 2010 of major countries by Enerdata, based on our global energy database. Energy consumption in the G20 soared by more than 5% in 2010, after the slight decrease of 2009. This strong increase is the result of two converging trends. On the one-hand, industrialized countries, which experienced sharp decreases in energy demand in 2009, recovered firmly in 2010, almost coming back to historical trends. Oil, gas, coal, and electricity markets followed the same trend. On the other hand, China and India, which showed no signs of slowing down in 2009, continued their intense demand for all forms of energy. (authors)

  16. Marketing automation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TODOR Raluca Dania

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The automation of the marketing process seems to be nowadays, the only solution to face the major changes brought by the fast evolution of technology and the continuous increase in supply and demand. In order to achieve the desired marketing results, businessis have to employ digital marketing and communication services. These services are efficient and measurable thanks to the marketing technology used to track, score and implement each campaign. Due to the technical progress, the marketing fragmentation, demand for customized products and services on one side and the need to achieve constructive dialogue with the customers, immediate and flexible response and the necessity to measure the investments and the results on the other side, the classical marketing approached had changed continue to improve substantially.

  17. SPORT MARKETING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omer Špirtović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Word „marketing“ comes from AngloSaxon linguistic domain and implies in a narrow sense the market. Under marketing, we consider certain process, which should create and solve relations of exchange between manufacturers on one side, and consumers on the other. Discussion about sport marketing implies its theoretical definition and generalization, and then its actual definition in sport environment. Sport marketing belongs to business function of sport organization and represents primaly an economical process of connecting produktion (sport organizations with sportsmen and coaches and consumption (sport and other public. Sport marketing is the reality in sport today, and cannot be observed as fashionabless of capitalistic production. Today is almost impossible for sport organization to make business without its business part called sport marketing if it wants to survive in sport arena.

  18. Sport Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Ekmekci, Ridvan; Ekmekçi, Aytul Yeter

    2009-01-01

    Abstract  Marketing which is entered to almost our whole life, now more than goods and services, became an important  concept of ideas, persons, institutions, events, and facilities. As a main activities of business co. marketing has an important place in sports industry. Recently, the development of special sport marketing strategies and the presentation of sport goods and services to consumers are gaining importance. Efforts of increasing income of sport clubs, because of sport organization...

  19. Viral Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Sorina Raula Gîrboveanu; Silvia Puiu

    2008-01-01

    With consumers showing increasing resistance to traditional forms of advertising such as TV or newspaper ads, marketers have turned to alternate strategies, including viral marketing. Viral marketing exploits existing social networks by encouraging customers to share product information with their friends.In our study we are able to directly observe the effectiveness of person to person word of mouth advertising for hundreds of thousands of products for the first time

  20. Online marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Zrůst, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to evaluate pay per click marketing as suitable marketing tool for promotion and distribution of a given product. The paper describes basic vocabulary related to PPC advertising, common metrics, tools used by online marketers, and logic of running PPC campaigns. The paper also tries to quantify impact of Internet on economies. The second part applies the theory to analysis of consumers' conversion path while searching online in common search engines where PPC marketi...