WorldWideScience

Sample records for malaria risk prediction

  1. Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, N.; Adimi, F.; Soebiyanto, R. P.; Kiang, R. K.

    2010-01-01

    Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the

  2. Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Justin M; Ernst, Kacey C; Lindblade, Kim A; Vulule, John M; John, Chandy C; Wilson, Mark L

    2010-11-16

    Identification of high-risk malaria foci can help enhance surveillance or control activities in regions where they are most needed. Associations between malaria risk and land-use/land-cover are well-recognized, but these environmental characteristics are closely interrelated with the land's topography (e.g., hills, valleys, elevation), which also influences malaria risk strongly. Parsing the individual contributions of land-cover/land-use variables to malaria risk requires examining these associations in the context of their topographic landscape. This study examined whether environmental factors like land-cover, land-use, and urban density improved malaria risk prediction based solely on the topographically-determined context, as measured by the topographic wetness index. The topographic wetness index, an estimate of predicted water accumulation in a defined area, was generated from a digital terrain model of the landscape surrounding households in two neighbouring western Kenyan highland communities. Variables determined to best encompass the variance in this topographic wetness surface were calculated at a household level. Land-cover/land-use information was extracted from a high-resolution satellite image using an object-based classification method. Topographic and land-cover variables were used individually and in combination to predict household-level malaria in the communities through an iterative split-sample model fitting and testing procedure. Models with only topographic variables were compared to those with additional predictive factors related to land-cover/land-use to investigate whether these environmental factors improved prediction of malaria based on the shape of the land alone. Variables related to topographic wetness proved most useful in predicting the households of individuals contracting malaria in this region of rugged terrain. Other variables related to human modification of the environment also demonstrated clear associations with

  3. Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vulule John M

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identification of high-risk malaria foci can help enhance surveillance or control activities in regions where they are most needed. Associations between malaria risk and land-use/land-cover are well-recognized, but these environmental characteristics are closely interrelated with the land's topography (e.g., hills, valleys, elevation, which also influences malaria risk strongly. Parsing the individual contributions of land-cover/land-use variables to malaria risk requires examining these associations in the context of their topographic landscape. This study examined whether environmental factors like land-cover, land-use, and urban density improved malaria risk prediction based solely on the topographically-determined context, as measured by the topographic wetness index. Methods The topographic wetness index, an estimate of predicted water accumulation in a defined area, was generated from a digital terrain model of the landscape surrounding households in two neighbouring western Kenyan highland communities. Variables determined to best encompass the variance in this topographic wetness surface were calculated at a household level. Land-cover/land-use information was extracted from a high-resolution satellite image using an object-based classification method. Topographic and land-cover variables were used individually and in combination to predict household-level malaria in the communities through an iterative split-sample model fitting and testing procedure. Models with only topographic variables were compared to those with additional predictive factors related to land-cover/land-use to investigate whether these environmental factors improved prediction of malaria based on the shape of the land alone. Results Variables related to topographic wetness proved most useful in predicting the households of individuals contracting malaria in this region of rugged terrain. Other variables related to human modification of the

  4. Development of nutritionally at-risk young children is predicted by malaria, anemia, and stunting in Pemba, Zanzibar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nutritionally at-risk children suffer delays in physical growth and motor and language development. Infectious diseases such as malaria pose an additional risk. We examined the cross-sectional relationships among malaria infection, hemoglobin (Hb) concentration, length-for-age Z-scores (LAZ), motor ...

  5. Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natacha Protopopoff

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. CONCLUSIONS: In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

  6. Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

    2009-11-25

    Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

  7. Application of GIS to predict malaria hotspots based on Anopheles arabiensis habitat suitability in Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwitira, Isaiah; Murwira, Amon; Zengeya, Fadzai M.; Shekede, Munyaradzi Davis

    2018-02-01

    Malaria remains a major public health problem and a principal cause of morbidity and mortality in most developing countries. Although malaria still presents health problems, significant successes have been recorded in reducing deaths resulting from the disease. As malaria transmission continues to decline, control interventions will increasingly depend on the ability to define high-risk areas known as malaria hotspots. Therefore, there is urgent need to use geospatial tools such as geographic information system to detect spatial patterns of malaria and delineate disease hot spots for better planning and management. Thus, accurate mapping and prediction of seasonality of malaria hotspots is an important step towards developing strategies for effective malaria control. In this study, we modelled seasonal malaria hotspots as a function of habitat suitability of Anopheles arabiensis (A. Arabiensis) as a first step towards predicting likely seasonal malaria hotspots that could provide guidance in targeted malaria control. We used Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial statistic methods to identify seasonal hotspots of malaria cases at the country level. In order to achieve this, we first determined the spatial distribution of seasonal malaria hotspots using the Getis Ord Gi* statistic based on confirmed positive malaria cases recorded at health facilities in Zimbabwe over four years (1996-1999). We then used MAXENT technique to model habitat suitability of A. arabiensis from presence data collected from 1990 to 2002 based on bioclimatic variables and altitude. Finally, we used autologistic regression to test the extent to which malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability. Our results show that A. arabiensis habitat suitability consistently and significantly (p < 0.05) predicts malaria hotspots from 1996 to 1999. Overall, our results show that malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability, suggesting

  8. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  9. Low plasma bicarbonate predicts poor outcome of cerebral malaria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many sub Saharan countries and cerebral malaria is widely recognised as one of its most fatal forms. We studied the predictive value of routine biochemical laboratory indices in predicting the outcome of cerebral malaria in 50 Nigerian children ages 9 months to 6 ...

  10. Adaptation is.... Predicting malaria's changing course in East Africa

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    IDRC

    Health experts say controlling malaria is crucial if the three East African nations are to achieve the UN Millennium. Development Goal of halving the incidence of infectious diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS by 2015. Looking ahead:Prevention and treatment. Improved malaria prediction will be an.

  11. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freya M Shearer

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated.A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines.We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified.

  12. Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... less than the risk of catching this infection. Chloroquine has been the drug of choice for protecting against malaria. But because of resistance, it is now only suggested for use in areas where Plasmodium vivax , P. oval , and ...

  13. Prevalence and risk factors of asymptomatic malaria among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Enhanced malaria control has resulted in its reduction in some areas of Sub Saharan Africa including Rwanda. However, asymptomatic hosts serve as a reservoir for the malaria parasite for communities. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of malaria parasites and risk factors associated ...

  14. Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bi Yan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (β = 1.244, p = 0.000 alone and combination (SPR, β = 1.326, p  Conclusion SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.

  15. [Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xia; Hua-Xun, Zhang; Wen, Lin; Su-Jian, Pei; Ling-Cong, Sun; Xiao-Rong, Dong; Mu-Min, Cao; Dong-Ni, Wu; Shunxiang, Cai

    2016-01-29

    To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation. The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable. The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.

  16. Challenges for modelling spatio-temporal variations of malaria risk in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, R.; Chirombo, J.; Tompkins, A. M.

    2012-04-01

    the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a negative binomial generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) is adopted, which includes structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. The parameters in this spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows posterior predictive distributions for disease risk to be derived for each spatial location and time period. A novel visualisation technique is then used to display seasonal probabilistic forecasts of malaria risk, derived from the developed model using pre-defined risk category thresholds, on a map. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty a particular malaria risk category (high, medium or low); in order to effectively target limited resources to those districts most at risk for a given season.

  17. Spatial modelling of malaria risk factors in Ruhuha sector in the east ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial clusters of malaria occurrence were subsequently determined using Getis and Ord spatial statistics. This cluster analysis showed that malaria distribution is characterized by zones with high malaria risk, so called hot spots, zones with moderate malaria risk known as not significant spots and zones of low malaria risk ...

  18. Predicting Malaria's Changing Course | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2010-12-09

    Dec 9, 2010 ... James Sang of the Kenyan government's Malaria Control Unit says the disease hits ... During the 1998 epidemic, almost four times more school-aged children caught ... This gave birth to the current phase of the project.

  19. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  20. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  1. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-12

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  2. Environmental factors and population at risk of malaria in Nkomazi municipality, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeola, A M; Botai, O J; Olwoch, J M; Rautenbach, C J de W; Adisa, O M; Taiwo, O J; Kalumba, A M

    2016-05-01

    Nkomazi local municipality of South Africa is a high-risk malaria region with an incidence rate of about 500 cases per 100 000. We examined the influence of environmental factors on population (age group) at risk of malaria. r software was used to statistically analyse data. Using remote sensing technology, a Landsat 8 image of 4th October 2015 was classified using object-based classification and a 5-m resolution. Spot height data were used to generate a digital elevation model of the area. A total of 60 718 malaria cases were notified across 48 health facilities in Nkomazi municipality between January 1997 and August 2015. Malaria incidence was highly associated with irrigated land (P = 0.001), water body (P = 0.011) and altitude ≤400 m (P = 0.001). The multivariate model showed that with 10% increase in the extent of irrigated areas, malaria risk increased by almost 39% in the entire study area and by almost 44% in the 2-km buffer zone of selected villages. Malaria incidence is more pronounced in the economically active population aged 15-64 and in males. Both incidence and case fatality rate drastically declined over the study period. A predictive model based on environmental factors would be useful in the effort towards malaria elimination by fostering appropriate targeting of control measures and allocating of resources. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in an endemic area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Akramul

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health burden in Southeastern Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region. Malaria is endemic in 13 districts of Bangladesh and the highest prevalence occurs in Khagrachari (15.47%. Methods A risk map was developed and geographic risk factors identified using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian geostatistical model was developed from previously identified individual and environmental covariates (p Results Predicted high prevalence areas were located along the north-eastern areas, and central part of the study area. Low to moderate prevalence areas were predicted in the southwestern, southeastern and central regions. Individual age and nearness to fragmented forest were associated with malaria prevalence after adjusting the spatial auto-correlation. Conclusion A Bayesian analytical approach using multiple enabling technologies (geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and remote sensing provide a strategy to characterize spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at a fine scale. Even in the most hyper endemic region of Bangladesh there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in risk. Areas that are predicted to be at high risk, based on the environment but that have not been reached by surveys are identified.

  4. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Increased Risk for Malaria Infection

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast describes research done in Ghana examining a correlation between type 2 diabetes and a possible increased risk for malaria infection in adults. Dr. Manoj Menon, a medical officer in the Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria in the Center for Global Health, discusses questions the study raises.

  5. Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2015-12-02

    Dec 2, 2015 ... control in time and space to be prepared for outbreaks, which ... developing dynamic and area-specific risk maps to ... disease outbreaks including vaccination (Haydon et ... analyse malaria data against certain environmental.

  6. Spatial analysis and mapping of malaria risk in Malawi using point-referenced prevalence of infection data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazembe Lawrence N

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current malaria control initiatives aim at reducing malaria burden by half by the year 2010. Effective control requires evidence-based utilisation of resources. Characterizing spatial patterns of risk, through maps, is an important tool to guide control programmes. To this end an analysis was carried out to predict and map malaria risk in Malawi using empirical data with the aim of identifying areas where greatest effort should be focussed. Methods Point-referenced prevalence of infection data for children aged 1–10 years were collected from published and grey literature and geo-referenced. The model-based geostatistical methods were applied to analyze and predict malaria risk in areas where data were not observed. Topographical and climatic covariates were added in the model for risk assessment and improved prediction. A Bayesian approach was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Bivariate models showed a significant association of malaria risk with elevation, annual maximum temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET. However in the prediction model, the spatial distribution of malaria risk was associated with elevation, and marginally with maximum temperature and PET. The resulting map broadly agreed with expert opinion about the variation of risk in the country, and further showed marked variation even at local level. High risk areas were in the low-lying lake shore regions, while low risk was along the highlands in the country. Conclusion The map provided an initial description of the geographic variation of malaria risk in Malawi, and might help in the choice and design of interventions, which is crucial for reducing the burden of malaria in Malawi.

  7. Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

    2013-01-01

    Background: The study assessed aspects of malaria infection, prevention and treatment in a population of resettled pregnant women in South Sudan. Methods: During April and May 2008, a cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate malaria prevalence and to assess the use of malaria risk...... ¼ 3.20, 95% CI 1.26–8.16; p ¼ 0.015). Conclusions: The results suggest that educational attainment need not be very advanced to affect practices of malaria prevention and treatment. Primary school attendance was a stronger predictor for use of malaria risk reduction measures than any of the other...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

  8. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Increased Risk for Malaria Infection

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-23

    This podcast describes research done in Ghana examining a correlation between type 2 diabetes and a possible increased risk for malaria infection in adults. Dr. Manoj Menon, a medical officer in the Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria in the Center for Global Health, discusses questions the study raises.  Created: 9/23/2010 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases; Center for Global Health.   Date Released: 9/23/2010.

  9. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-12-01

    The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more

  10. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Santos-Vega

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a

  11. The influence of mosquito resting behaviour and associated microclimate for malaria risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Matthew B

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The majority of the mosquito and parasite life-history traits that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity are temperature sensitive. In most cases, the process-based models used to estimate malaria risk and inform control and prevention strategies utilize measures of mean outdoor temperature. Evidence suggests, however, that certain malaria vectors can spend large parts of their adult life resting indoors. Presentation of hypothesis If significant proportions of mosquitoes are resting indoors and indoor conditions differ markedly from ambient conditions, simple use of outdoor temperatures will not provide reliable estimates of malaria transmission intensity. To date, few studies have quantified the differential effects of indoor vs outdoor temperatures explicitly, reflecting a lack of proper understanding of mosquito resting behaviour and associated microclimate. Testing the hypothesis Published records from 8 village sites in East Africa revealed temperatures to be warmer indoors than outdoors and to generally show less daily variation. Exploring the effects of these temperatures on malaria parasite development rate suggested indoor-resting mosquitoes could transmit malaria between 0.3 and 22.5 days earlier than outdoor-resting mosquitoes. These differences translate to increases in transmission risk ranging from 5 to approaching 3,000%, relative to predictions based on outdoor temperatures. The pattern appears robust for low- and highland areas, with differences increasing with altitude. Implications of the hypothesis Differences in indoor vs outdoor environments lead to large differences in the limits and the intensity of malaria transmission. This finding highlights a need to better understand mosquito resting behaviour and the associated microclimate, and to broaden assessments of transmission ecology and risk to consider the potentially important role of endophily.

  12. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Abdisalan Mohamed; Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007-2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to contemporary (2010) mean PfPR(2-10) and the maximum annual mean PfPR(2-10) (receptive) from the highest predicted PfPR(2-10) value over the study period as an estimate of receptivity. Randomly sampled communities in Somalia. Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. The contemporary annual PfPR(2-10) map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR(2-10)). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%-50% PfPR(2-10)) and the rest as hypoendemic. Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning.

  13. Towards a Predictive Analytics-Based Intelligent Malaria Outbreak Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babagana Modu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Malaria, as one of the most serious infectious diseases causing public health problems in the world, affects about two-thirds of the world population, with estimated resultant deaths close to a million annually. The effects of this disease are much more profound in third world countries, which have very limited medical resources. When an intense outbreak occurs, most of these countries cannot cope with the high number of patients due to the lack of medicine, equipment and hospital facilities. The prevention or reduction of the risk factor of this disease is very challenging, especially in third world countries, due to poverty and economic insatiability. Technology can offer alternative solutions by providing early detection mechanisms that help to control the spread of the disease and allow the management of treatment facilities in advance to ensure a more timely health service, which can save thousands of lives. In this study, we have deployed an intelligent malaria outbreak early warning system, which is a mobile application that predicts malaria outbreak based on climatic factors using machine learning algorithms. The system will help hospitals, healthcare providers, and health organizations take precautions in time and utilize their resources in case of emergency. To our best knowledge, the system developed in this paper is the first publicly available application. Since confounding effects of climatic factors have a greater influence on the incidence of malaria, we have also conducted extensive research on exploring a new ecosystem model for the assessment of hidden ecological factors and identified three confounding factors that significantly influence the malaria incidence. Additionally, we deploy a smart healthcare application; this paper also makes a significant contribution by identifying hidden ecological factors of malaria.

  14. Malaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupasquier, Isabelle

    1989-01-01

    Malaria, the greatest pandemia in the world, claims an estimated one million lives each year in Africa alone. While it may still be said that for the most part malaria is found in what is known as the world's poverty belt, cases are now frequently diagnosed in western countries. Due to resistant strains of malaria which have developed because of…

  15. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  16. Malaria prevalence, spatial clustering and risk factors in a low endemic area of Eastern Rwanda: a cross sectional study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rulisa, Stephen; Kateera, Fredrick; Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Agaba, Steven; Dukuzumuremyi, Javier; Baas, Lisette; de Dieu Harelimana, Jean; Mens, Petra F.; Boer, Kimberly R.; de Vries, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    Rwanda reported significant reductions in malaria burden following scale up of control intervention from 2005 to 2010. This study sought to; measure malaria prevalence, describe spatial malaria clustering and investigate for malaria risk factors among health-centre-presumed malaria cases and their

  17. Risk of malaria in British residents returning from malarious areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips-Howard, P A; Radalowicz, A; Mitchell, J; Bradley, D J

    1990-01-01

    OBJECTIVES--To identify which British residents travelling abroad are at greatest risk of malaria infection, and to determine the efficacy of malaria chemoprophylaxis for preventing P falciparum infections in tropical Africa. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study (case-base linkage) with routine national surveillance systems. Denominators (base population) were obtained from monitoring a random sample of returning British travellers with the international passenger survey. Numerators (cases) were obtained from reports of malaria infections in British residents, through the Malaria Reference Laboratory network. SETTING--International passenger survey conducted at passport control of international airports in Britain. Malaria reports received nationally were collated centrally in London. SUBJECTS--2948 British residents (0.2%) returning to Britain in 1987 randomly selected and questioned and 1052 British residents with microscopically confirmed malaria infections in 1987, whose case reports were reviewed and on whom additional data were collected by postal survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Annual incidence subdivided by categories of risk. Chemoprophylactic efficacy for east and west Africa by principal regimens and compliance. RESULTS--Annual rates of reported infection per 100,000 travellers to Oceania were 4100; to west and east Africa were 375 and 172 respectively; to Latin America, the Far East, and the Middle East were 12, 2, and 1 respectively. Immigrants visiting friends and relatives in Ghana and Nigeria were at greatest risk (1303 and 952 per 100,000 respectively) in west Africa. Business travellers to Kenya experienced the highest attack rates in east Africa (465 per 100,000). Age-sex specific attack rates varied by region. No prophylaxis was reported to have been used by 23% of British visitors to west Africa, 17% to east Africa, 46% to central or southern Africa, and 58% visiting south Asia. The efficacy of chloroquine plus proguanil against P falciparum

  18. Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Moffett

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

  19. Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... bites you, the parasite can get into your blood. The parasite lays eggs, which develop into more parasites. They ... cells until you get very sick. Because the parasites live in the blood, malaria can also be spread through other ways. ...

  20. The incidence of malaria in travellers to South-East Asia: is local malaria transmission a useful risk indicator?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jänisch Thomas

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The presence of ongoing local malaria transmission, identified though local surveillance and reported to regional WHO offices, by S-E Asian countries, forms the basis of national and international chemoprophylaxis recommendations in western countries. The study was designed to examine whether the strategy of using malaria transmission in a local population was an accurate estimate of the malaria threat faced by travellers and a correlate of malaria in returning travellers. Methods Malaria endemicity was described from distribution and intensity in the local populations of ten S-E Asian destination countries over the period 2003-2008 from regionally reported cases to WHO offices. Travel acquired malaria was collated from malaria surveillance reports from the USA and 12 European countries over the same period. The numbers of travellers visiting the destination countries was based on immigration and tourism statistics collected on entry of tourists to the destination countries. Results In the destination countries, mean malaria rates in endemic countries ranged between 0.01 in Korea to 4:1000 population per year in Lao PDR, with higher regional rates in a number of countries. Malaria cases imported into the 13 countries declined by 47% from 140 cases in 2003 to 66 in 2008. A total of 608 cases (27.3% Plasmodium falciparum (Pf were reported over the six years, the largest number acquired in Indonesia, Thailand and Korea. Four countries had an incidence > 1 case per 100,000 traveller visits; Burma (Myanmar, Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos (range 1 to 11.8-case per 100,000 visits. The remaining six countries rates were Conclusion The intensity of malaria transmission particularly sub-national activity did not correlate with the risk of travellers acquiring malaria in the large numbers of arriving visitors. It is proposed to use a threshold incidence of > 1 case per 100,000 visits to consider targeted malaria prophylaxis

  1. The role of age, ethnicity and environmental factors in modulating malaria risk in Rajasthali, Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haque Ubydul

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is endemic in the Rajasthali region of the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh and the Rajasthali region is the most endemic area of Bangladesh. Quantifying the role of environmental and socio-economic factors in the local spatial patterns of malaria endemicity can contribute to successful malaria control and elimination. This study aimed to investigate the role of environmental factors on malaria risk in Rajasthali and to quantify the geographical clustering in malaria risk unaccounted by these factors. Method A total of 4,200 (78.9%; N = 5,322 households were targeted in Rajasthali in July, 2009, and 1,400 individuals were screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax. These data were linked to environmental and socio-economic data in a geographical information system. To describe the association between environmental factors and malaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. The study investigated the role of environmental factors on malaria risk by calculating their population-attributable fractions (PAF, and used residual semivariograms to quantify the geographical clustering in malaria risk unaccounted by these factors. Results Overall malaria prevalence was 11.7%. Out of 5,322 households, 44.12% households were living in areas with malaria prevalence of ≥ 10%. The results from statistical analysis showed that age, ethnicity, proximity to forest, household density, and elevation were significantly and positively correlated with the malaria risk and PAF estimation. The highest PAF of malaria prevalence was 47.7% for third tertile (n = 467 of forest cover, 17.6% for second tertile (n = 467 of forest cover and 19.9% for household density >1,000. Conclusion Targeting of malaria health interventions at small spatial scales in Bangladesh should consider the social and socio-economic risk factors identified as well as alternative methods for improving equity of access to interventions

  2. The impact of endemic and epidemic malaria on the risk of stillbirth in two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wort, Ulrika Uddenfeldt; Hastings, Ian; Mutabingwa, T. K.; Brabin, Bernard J.

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The impact of malaria on the risk of stillbirth is still under debate. The aim of the present analysis was to determine comparative changes in stillbirth prevalence between two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns in order to estimate the malaria attributable

  3. Altered environment and risk of malaria outbreak in South Andaman, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, India affected by tsunami disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shriram AN

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pools of salt water and puddles created by giant waves from the sea due to the tsunami that occurred on 26th December 2004 would facilitate increased breeding of brackish water malaria vector, Anopheles sundaicus. Land uplifts in North Andaman and subsidence in South Andaman have been reported and subsidence may lead to environmental disturbances and vector proliferation. This warrants a situation analysis and vector surveillance in the tsunami hit areas endemic for malaria transmitted by brackish water mosquito, An. sundaicus to predict the risk of outbreak. Methods An extensive survey was carried out in the tsunami-affected areas in Andaman district of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India to assess the extent of breeding of malaria vectors in the habitats created by seawater flooding. Types of habitats in relation to source of seawater inundation and frequency were identified. The salinity of the water samples and the mosquito species present in the larval samples collected from these habitats were recorded. The malaria situation in the area was also analysed. Results South Andaman, covering Port Blair and Ferrargunj sub districts, is still under the recurring phenomenon of seawater intrusion either directly from the sea or through a network of creeks. Both daily cycles of high tides and periodical spring tides continue to cause flooding. Low-lying paddy fields and fallow land, with a salinity ranging from 3,000 to 42,505 ppm, were found to support profuse breeding of An. sundaicus, the local malaria vector, and Anopheles subpictus, a vector implicated elsewhere. This area is endemic for both vivax and falciparum malaria. Malaria slide positivity rate has started increasing during post-tsunami period, which can be considered as an indication of risk of malaria outbreak. Conclusion Paddy fields and fallow land with freshwater, hitherto not considered as potential sites for An. sundaicus, are now major breeding sites due to

  4. Elimination of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in central part of the People’s Republic of China: analysis and prediction based on modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Chen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Five provinces in central People’s Republic of China (P.R. China have successfully reduced the burden of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in the last 7 years. The results of the Action Plan of China Malaria Elimination (APCME that com- menced in 2010 are analysed against the background of the progress reached by the national malaria control programme (NMEP that was launched in 2006. We examined the epidemiological changes in the number of autochthonous cases over time and discuss the feasibility of achieving the goal of malaria elimination by 2020. There was a total decline of 34,320 malaria cases between 2006 and 2012 arriving at an average annual incidence of 0.04 per 10,000 people by 2012. At the same time, the number of counties reporting autochthonous cases declined from 290 to 19. Spatial autocorrelation and Bayesian modelling were used to evaluate the datasets and predict the spatio-temporal pattern in the near future. The former approach showed that spatial clusters of P. vivax malaria existed in the study region during the study period, while the risk prediction map generated by the Bayesian model indicates that only sporadic malaria cases will appear during in the future. The results suggest that the initial NMEP approach and the follow-up APCME strategy have played a key role in reducing the threat of malaria in central P.R. China. However, to achieve the goal of malaria elimination by the end of the current decade, interven- tion plans must be adjusted with attention paid to those endemic counties still at risk according to the prediction map.

  5. Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiwat, H.; Hardjopawiro, L.S.; Takken, W.; Villegas, L.

    2012-01-01

    Background Suriname was a high malaria risk country before the introduction of a new five-year malaria control program in 2005, the Medical Mission Malaria Programme (MM-MP). Malaria was endemic in the forested interior, where especially the stabile village communities were affected. Case

  6. Predicting malaria in an highly endemic country using clinical and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Kate Zinszer

    evaluate statistical models that integrate environmental and clinical data to .... was to identify and assess forecasting methods used to forecast malaria, and ...... 3Children's Hospital Informatics Program at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and ...... Sachs J, Malaney P. The economic and social burden of malaria.

  7. Spatio-Temporal Analysis to Predict Environmental Influence on Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baig, S.; Sarfraz, M. S.

    2018-05-01

    Malaria is a vector borne disease which is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. It is one of the major diseases in the category of infectious diseases. The survival and bionomics of malaria is affected by environmental factors such as climatic, demographic and land-use/land-cover etc. Currently, a very few under developing countries are using Geo-informatics approaches to control this disease. Gujrat a district of Pakistan, is still under threat of malaria disease. Current research is carried on malaria incidents obtained from District Executive Officer of Health Gujrat. The objective of this study was to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of malaria in district Gujrat and to identify the areas being affected by Malaria. Furthermore, it has been also analyzed the relationship between malaria incident and environmental factors in highly favorable zones. Data is analyzed based on spatial and temporal patterns using (Moran's I). Moreover cluster and hot spots analysis were performed on the incident data. This study shows positive correlation with rainfall, vegetation index, population density and water bodies; while it shows positive and negative correlation with temperature in different seasons. However, variation between amount of vegetation and water bodies were observed. Finding of this research can help the decision makers to take preventive measures and reduce the morbidity and mortality related with malaria in Gujrat, Pakistan.

  8. malaria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    children who presented with malaria symptoms at the same clinic and tested positive or ... phagocytes immunity and induce anti-inflammatory immune response ...... treatment gap, Malawi will be ready to submit a validation request for virtual .... Conclusions. Vaccination and quarantine are the important disease preventive.

  9. Malaria Transmission Risk Factor In West Java (Epidemiology Study About Vector, Plasmodium parasite and Environmental Risk Factors For Malaria Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukman Hakim

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the territory is divided with the province of Banten, in West Java there are five regencies that defined as malaria endemic area, there are Ciamis, Tasikmalaya, Garut, Cianjur and Sukabumi. Sufferer, concentrated in southern coastal areas (Indonesian Ocean starting from the beach of Kalipucang at Ciamis up to coast of Cikakak at Sukabumi which borders the province of Banten and also mountain and plantations areas. Malaria morbidity incidence risk factors is differ in each of these endemic areas. In general is the presence of malaria patients without symptoms who can be a source of infection that so difficult to know its existence. Still the number of standing water that can become mosqui-to breeding places of Anopheles spp, such as fish pond, small puddle on the riverside, shrimp pond, mangrove forests that potentially at the beginning of the rainy season, the fields during rice that potential when the rice growing and the river that potential in the dry season. The existence of high population mobility and also the number of vegetation in the surrounding residential population and the existence of cattle are placed close to settle-ments.

  10. Prevalence and risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in pregnant women of eastern Sudan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamis Amar H

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pregnant women are more susceptible to malaria, which is associated with serious adverse effects on pregnancy. The presentation of malaria during pregnancy varies according to the level of transmission in the area. Our study aimed to demonstrate the prevalence and risk factors for malaria (age, parity and gestational age among pregnant women of eastern Sudan, which is characterized by unstable malaria transmission. Methods The prevalence and possible risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum malaria were investigated in 744 pregnant Sudanese women attending the antenatal clinic of New Haifa Teaching Hospital, eastern Sudan, during October 2003-April 2004. Results A total 102 (13.7% had P. falciparum malaria, 18(17.6% of these were severe cases (jaundice and severe anaemia. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that, age and parity were not associated with malaria. Women who attended the antenatal clinic in the third trimester were at highest risk for malaria (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.02–2.4; P Women with malaria had significantly lower mean haemoglobin (9.4 g/dl, 95% CI 9.1–9.7 versus 10.7, CI 10.6–10.8, P Conclusion The results suggest that P. falciparum malaria is common in pregnant women attending antenatal care and that anaemia is an important complication. Preventive measures (chemoprophylaxis and insecticide-treated bednets may be beneficial in this area for all women irrespective of age or parity.

  11. International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert W Snow

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The international financing of malaria control has increased significantly in the last ten years in parallel with calls to halve the malaria burden by the year 2015. The allocation of funds to countries should reflect the size of the populations at risk of infection, disease, and death. To examine this relationship, we compare an audit of international commitments with an objective assessment of national need: the population at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in 2007.The national distributions of populations at risk of stable P. falciparum transmission were projected to the year 2007 for each of 87 P. falciparum-endemic countries. Systematic online- and literature-based searches were conducted to audit the international funding commitments made for malaria control by major donors between 2002 and 2007. These figures were used to generate annual malaria funding allocation (in US dollars per capita population at risk of stable P. falciparum in 2007. Almost US$1 billion are distributed each year to the 1.4 billion people exposed to stable P. falciparum malaria risk. This is less than US$1 per person at risk per year. Forty percent of this total comes from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Substantial regional and national variations in disbursements exist. While the distribution of funds is found to be broadly appropriate, specific high population density countries receive disproportionately less support to scale up malaria control. Additionally, an inadequacy of current financial commitments by the international community was found: under-funding could be from 50% to 450%, depending on which global assessment of the cost required to scale up malaria control is adopted.Without further increases in funding and appropriate targeting of global malaria control investment it is unlikely that international goals to halve disease burdens by 2015 will be achieved. Moreover, the additional financing

  12. A cross-sectional analysis of traditional medicine use for malaria alongside free antimalarial drugs treatment amongst adults in high-risk malaria endemic provinces of Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suswardany, Dwi Linna; Sibbritt, David W; Supardi, Sudibyo; Pardosi, Jerico F; Chang, Sungwon; Adams, Jon

    2017-01-01

    The level of traditional medicine use, particularly Jamu use, in Indonesia is substantial. Indonesians do not always seek timely treatment for malaria and may seek self-medication via traditional medicine. This paper reports findings from the first focused analyses of traditional medicine use for malaria in Indonesia and the first such analyses worldwide to draw upon a large sample of respondents across high-risk malaria endemic areas. A sub-study of the Indonesia Basic Health Research/Riskesdas Study 2010 focused on 12,226 adults aged 15 years and above residing in high-risk malaria-endemic provinces. Logistic regression was undertaken to determine the significant associations for traditional medicine use for malaria symptoms. Approximately one in five respondents use traditional medicine for malaria symptoms and the vast majority experiencing multiple episodes of malaria use traditional medicine alongside free antimalarial drug treatments. Respondents consuming traditional medicine for general health/common illness purposes every day (odds ratio: 3.75, 95% Confidence Interval: 2.93 4.79), those without a hospital in local vicinity (odds ratio: 1.31, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.10 1.57), and those living in poorer quality housing, were more likely to use traditional medicine for malaria symptoms. A substantial percentage of those with malaria symptoms utilize traditional medicine for treating their malaria symptoms. In order to promote safe and effective malaria treatment, all providing malaria care in Indonesia need to enquire with their patients about possible traditional medicine use.

  13. Recent Change of locality as Risk factor for Malaria Fever Among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recent Change of locality as Risk factor for Malaria Fever Among New Residents of Ahoada East Local Government Area in Southern Nigeria. ... an endemic region, which serves as an indicator of exposure to new variants of P falciparum; for which specific immunity is lacking, is a significant risk factor for malaria fever.

  14. Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria transmission in Korogwe, Tanzania: implications for malaria control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mmbando, Bruno Paul; Cole-Lewis, H; Sembuche, S

    2008-01-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for infant mortality, morbidity, growth retardation, poor cognitive development, and chronic diseases. Maternal exposure to diseases such as malaria, HIV, and syphilis has been shown to have a significant impact on birth weight (BW). This study was aimed...... babies compared to first parity women (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.98, P=0.045). Similarly, the risk of LBW was higher in women who had delayed MCH gestational booking and in women who conceived during high malaria transmission seasons. There was high degree of preference of digits ending with 0...

  15. Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    dividing and are far more noticeable than the small amount of clear cyto- plasm surrounding them (Figs 10.6a & 10.6b). Mature schizonts contain 8...edema Same as P. vivax 16 10 • Topics on The paThology of proTozoan and invasive arThropod diseases Figure 10.38 Transmission electron micrograph of...mesangiopathic glo- merulonephropathy caused by quartan malaria, deposition of immune complexes may be demonstrated by electron or immunofluorescence microscopy

  16. Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria transmission in Korogwe, Tanzania: implications for malaria control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mmbando, Bruno Paul; Cole-Lewis, H; Sembuche, S

    2008-01-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for infant mortality, morbidity, growth retardation, poor cognitive development, and chronic diseases. Maternal exposure to diseases such as malaria, HIV, and syphilis has been shown to have a significant impact on birth weight (BW). This study was aimed...... at determining whether there was a difference in rates of LBW in areas of varying malaria transmission intensity in Korogwe, Tanzania. Retrospective data for one year (June 2004-May 2005) in three maternal and child health (MCH) clinics in the district were analysed. Villages were stratified into three strata...... babies compared to first parity women (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.98, P=0.045). Similarly, the risk of LBW was higher in women who had delayed MCH gestational booking and in women who conceived during high malaria transmission seasons. There was high degree of preference of digits ending with 0...

  17. Pregnant women carrying female fetuses are at higher risk of placental malaria infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishag Adam

    Full Text Available The pathophysiology of the placental malaria is not fully understood. If there is a fetal sex-specific susceptibility to malaria infection, this might add to the previous knowledge on the immunology, endocrinology and pathophysiology of placental malaria infections.This study was conducted to assess whether the sex of the fetus was associated with placental malaria infections.A cross-sectional study was performed including a secondary analysis of a cohort of women who were investigated for prevalence and risk factors (including fetal sex for placental malaria in eastern Sudan. Placental histology was used to diagnose placental malaria infections.Among 339 women enrolled, the mean (SD age was 25.8 (6.7 years and parity was 2.7 (2.2. Among the new born babies, 157 (46.3% were male and 182 (53.7% were female. Five (1.5%, 9 (2.7% and 103 (30.4% of the 339 placentas had active, active-chronic, past-chronic malaria infection on histopathology examination respectively, while 222 (65.5% of them showed no malaria infection. Logistic regression analyses showed no associations between maternal age or parity and placental malaria infections. Women who have blood group O (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.19-3.10; P = 0.007 and women who had female new born were at higher risk for placental malaria infections (OR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.57-4.13; P< 0.001.Fetal gender may be a novel risk factor for placental malaria. In this work the female placentas were at higher risk for malaria infections than the male placentas.

  18. Analyzing actual risk in malaria-deferred donors through selective serologic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Megan L; Goff, Tami; Gibble, Joan; Steele, Whitney R; Leiby, David A

    2013-08-01

    Approximately 150,000 US blood donors are deferred annually for travel to malaria-endemic areas. However, the majority do not travel to the high-risk areas of Africa associated with transfusion-transmitted malaria (TTM) but visit low-risk areas such as Mexico. This study tests for Plasmodium infection among malaria-deferred donors, particularly those visiting Mexico. Blood donors deferred for malaria risk (travel, residence, or previous infection) provided blood samples and completed a questionnaire. Plasma was tested for Plasmodium antibodies by enzyme immunoassay (EIA); repeat-reactive (RR) samples were considered positive and tested by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Accepted donors provided background testing data. During 2005 to 2011, a total of 5610 malaria-deferred donors were tested by EIA, including 5412 travel deferrals. Overall, 88 (1.6%) were EIA RR; none were PCR positive. Forty-nine (55.7%) RR donors previously had malaria irrespective of deferral category, including 34 deferred for travel. Among 1121 travelers to Mexico, 90% visited Quintana Roo (no or very low risk), but just 2.2% visited Oaxaca/Chiapas (moderate or high risk). Only two Mexican travelers tested RR; both previously had malaria not acquired in Mexico. Travel to Mexico represents a large percentage of US donors deferred for malaria risk; however, these donors primarily visit no- or very-low-risk areas. No malaria cases acquired in Mexico were identified thereby supporting previous risk estimates. Consideration should be given to allowing blood donations from U.S. donors who travel to Quintana Roo and other low-risk areas in Mexico. A more effective approach to preventing TTM would be to defer all donors with a history of malaria, even if remote. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  19. Malaria Risk Factors in Kaligesing, Purworejo District, Central Java Province, Indonesia: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahyaningrum, Pratiwi; Sulistyawati, Sulistyawati

    2018-05-01

    Malaria remains a public health concern worldwide, including Indonesia. Purworejo is a district in which endemic of malaria, they have re-setup to entering malaria elimination in 2021. Accordingly, actions must be taken to accelerate and guaranty that the goal will reach based on an understanding of the risk factors for malaria. Thus, we analysed malaria risk factors based on human and housing conditions in Kaligesing, Purworejo, Indonesia. A case-control study was carried out in Kaligesing subdistrict, Purworejo, Indonesia in July to August 2017. A structured questionnaire and checklist were used to collect data from 96 participants, who consisted of 48 controls and 48 cases. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were performed. Bivariate analysis found that education level, the presence of a cattle cage within 100 m of the house, not sleeping under a bednet the previous night, and not closing the doors and windows from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. were significantly ( p ≤0.25) associated with malaria. Of these factors, only not sleeping under a bednet the previous night and not closing the doors and windows from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. were significantly associated with malaria. The findings of this study demonstrate that potential risk factor for Malaria should be paid of attention all the time, particularly for an area which is targeting Malaria elimination.

  20. Malaria parasite carriage and risk determinants in a rural population: a malariometric survey in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kateera, Fredrick; Mens, Petra F; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Ingabire, Chantal M; Muragijemariya, Liberata; Karinda, Parfait; Grobusch, Martin P; Mutesa, Leon; van Vugt, Michèle

    2015-01-21

    Based on routine health facility case data, Rwanda has achieved a significant malaria burden reduction in the past ten years. However, community-based malaria parasitaemia burden and reasons for continued residual infections, despite a high coverage of control interventions, have yet to be characterized. Measurement of malaria parasitaemia rates and evaluation of associated risk factors among asymptomatic household members in a rural community in Rwanda were conducted. A malariometric household survey was conducted between June and November 2013, involving 12,965 persons living in 3,989 households located in 35 villages in a sector in eastern Rwanda. Screening for malaria parasite carriage and collection of demographic, socio-economic, house structural features, and prior fever management data, were performed. Logistic regression models with adjustment for within- and between-households clustering were used to assess malaria parasitaemia risk determinants. Overall, malaria parasitaemia was found in 652 (5%) individuals, with 518 (13%) of households having at least one parasitaemic member. High malaria parasite carriage risk was associated with being male, child or adolescent (age group 4-15), reported history of fever and living in a household with multiple occupants. A malaria parasite carriage risk-protective effect was associated with living in households of, higher socio-economic status, where the head of household was educated and where the house floor or walls were made of cement/bricks rather than mud/earth/wood materials. Parasitaemia cases were found to significantly cluster in the Gikundamvura area that neighbours marshlands. Overall, Ruhuha Sector can be classified as hypo-endemic, albeit with a particular 'cell of villages' posing a higher risk for malaria parasitaemia than others. Efforts to further reduce transmission and eventually eliminate malaria locally should focus on investments in programmes that improve house structure features (that limit

  1. A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luty Adrian JF

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. Methods Receptivity (vectorial capacity and infectivity (vector susceptibility were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. Results The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. Conclusion The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk

  2. [Application of ARIMA model to predict number of malaria cases in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui-Yu, H; Hua-Qin, S; Shun-Xian, Z; Lin, A I; Yan, L U; Yu-Chun, C; Shi-Zhu, L I; Xue-Jiao, T; Chun-Li, Y; Wei, H U; Jia-Xu, C

    2017-08-15

    Objective To study the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the monthly reported malaria cases in China, so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of malaria. Methods SPSS 24.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA models based on the monthly reported malaria cases of the time series of 20062015 and 2011-2015, respectively. The data of malaria cases from January to December, 2016 were used as validation data to compare the accuracy of the two ARIMA models. Results The models of the monthly reported cases of malaria in China were ARIMA (2, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 and ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0) 12 respectively. The comparison between the predictions of the two models and actual situation of malaria cases showed that the ARIMA model based on the data of 2011-2015 had a higher accuracy of forecasting than the model based on the data of 2006-2015 had. Conclusion The establishment and prediction of ARIMA model is a dynamic process, which needs to be adjusted unceasingly according to the accumulated data, and in addition, the major changes of epidemic characteristics of infectious diseases must be considered.

  3. Cost effective malaria risk control using remote sensing and environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdel Hamid

    2012-06-01

    Malaria transmission in many part of the world specifically in Bangladesh and southern African countries is unstable and epidemic. An estimate of over a million cases is reported annually. Malaria is heterogeneous, potentially due to variations in ecological settings, socio-economic status, land cover, and agricultural practices. Malaria control only relies on treatment and supply of bed networks. Drug resistance to these diseases is widespread. Vector control is minimal. Malaria control in those countries faces many formidable challenges such as inadequate accessibility to effective treatment, lack of trained manpower, inaccessibility of endemic areas, poverty, lack of education, poor health infrastructure and low health budgets. Health facilities for malaria management are limited, surveillance is inadequate, and vector control is insufficient. Control can only be successful if the right methods are used at the right time in the right place. This paper aims to improve malaria control by developing malaria risk maps and risk models using satellite remote sensing data by identifying, assessing, and mapping determinants of malaria associated with environmental, socio-economic, malaria control, and agricultural factors.

  4. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

    2014-12-02

    Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

  5. Spatial modelling of malaria risk factors in Ruhuha sector in the east of Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuyishimire, J.; Kateera, F.; Mugisha, J.; Amer, S.; Mens, P.

    2017-01-01

    Malaria is a vector borne disease posing a severe health risk to the population of Sub Saharan Africa and particularly in the East African Rift-Valley Region. The fact that malaria is still killing hundreds of thousands of people annually is due to insufficient researchers about its causing factors

  6. Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Justin M; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pothin, Emilie; Eisele, Thomas P; Gething, Peter W; Eckhoff, Philip A; Moonen, Bruno; Schapira, Allan; Smith, David L

    2017-11-13

    There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

  7. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope O. Alimi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis. Methods The risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors. Results Results from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001 than a control group of geographically random points. Conclusion In this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

  8. Knowledge, attitudes and practices of business travelers regarding malaria risk and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Roger; Schlagenhauf, Patricia; Amsler, Lorenz; Steffen, Robert

    2003-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the knowledge, attitudes and practices of Swiss business travelers with regard to malaria. Questionnaires printed in three languages were distributed by employers, travel agencies and tropical medicine specialists to business travelers with destinations in malaria endemic countries. In total, 401 questionnaires were evaluated. Thirty-three percent visited high-risk areas, 27% visited low-risk areas, and 40% visited only malaria-free areas within endemic countries. Among the investigated business travelers, 6% had experienced malaria infection, and 29% had previously had blood smears tested for malaria at least once. Almost all business travelers, 95%, knew that mosquitoes are the main vectors of malaria. The infection risk between dusk and dawn was known to 71%, and the incubation time to 36%. Apart from fever (99%) and headache (63%), other malaria symptoms were known to only 13% to 36% of the travelers. If signs of illness such as fever and headache occurred, 63% would react adequately and seek medical advice within 24 h. Only 16% of the travelers to African high-risk areas followed the recommended behavior concerning anti-mosquito and antimalarial strategies; 31% of those on trips to low-risk areas used an adequate protective strategy. Of the business travelers using chemoprophylaxis during travel, just 50% continued intake post travel, as requested, after leaving the endemic area. Business travelers are well informed regarding the mode of transmission and the risk of malaria at specific destinations but tend to comply poorly with anti-mosquito and chemoprophylactic strategies. The knowledge, attitudes and practices of business travelers with regard to malaria prevention need to be improved.

  9. Reduced risk of uncomplicated malaria episodes in children with a+-thalassemia in northeastern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevold, Anders; Lusingu, John P; Mmbando, Bruno

    2008-01-01

    the susceptibility to uncomplicated malaria. We compared the risk of suffering from febrile, uncomplicated malaria between individuals carrying three common RBC polymorphisms (sickle cell trait, alpha(+)-thalassemia, and glucose-6-phosphate-dehydrogenase deficiency) and controls. The study was performed in an area...... measured with flow cytometry and ELISA assays, respectively. Regression analyses showed that alpha(+)-thalassemia was associated with a reduced risk of uncomplicated malaria episodes and that this advantageous effect seemed to be more predominant in children older than 5 years of age, but was independent...

  10. Remote Sensing as a Landscape Epidemiologic Tool to Identify Villages at High Risk for Malaria Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Louisa R.; Rodriquez, Mario H.; Dister, Sheri W.; Rodriquez, Americo D.; Rejmankova, Eliska; Ulloa, Armando; Meza, Rosa A.; Roberts, Donald R.; Paris, Jack F.; Spanner, Michael A.; hide

    1994-01-01

    A landscape approach using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies was developed to discriminate between villages at high and low risk for malaria transmission, as defined by adult Anopheles albimanus abundance. Satellite data for an area in southern Chiapas, Mexico were digitally processed to generate a map of landscape elements. The GIS processes were used to determine the proportion of mapped landscape elements surrounding 40 villages where An. albimanus data had been collected. The relationships between vector abundance and landscape element proportions were investigated using stepwise discriminant analysis and stepwise linear regression. Both analyses indicated that the most important landscape elements in terms of explaining vector abundance were transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture. Discriminant functions generated for these two elements were able to correctly distinguish between villages with high ind low vector abundance, with an overall accuracy of 90%. Regression results found both transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture proportions to be predictive of vector abundance during the mid-to-late wet season. This approach, which integrates remotely sensed data and GIS capabilities to identify villages with high vector-human contact risk, provides a promising tool for malaria surveillance programs that depend on labor-intensive field techniques. This is particularly relevant in areas where the lack of accurate surveillance capabilities may result in no malaria control action when, in fact, directed action is necessary. In general, this landscape approach could be applied to other vector-borne diseases in areas where: 1. the landscape elements critical to vector survival are known and 2. these elements can be detected at remote sensing scales.

  11. Dominant risk factors for malaria at Puskesmas Labuhan Ruku, Talawi Batu Bara, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyanoer, P. C.

    2018-03-01

    Malaria is a disease which increases in number almost every year. Morbidity rate of malaria tends to decline from 4.1 to 0.85 per 1000 population at risk in 2005 to 2015. In North Sumatera alone three areas found with the highest incidences are District of Madina, Batubara, and Asahan. However such high number do not parallel with the utilization of health services in the area.This study is an analytic study withcase-controldesign to analyses the contribution of environmental and social factors that potentially cause malaria among people living in malaria-endemic areas. The recruited samples are 146 samples. All cases are registered patient at Puskesmas Labuhan Ruku while controls are from the neighboring area. The result showed that incidence of malaria is most affected by the habit of repellent used and being outside of the house in the evening.

  12. Gender roles and perceptions of malaria risk in agricultural communities of Mwea Division in Central Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldu, Dawit Okubatsion; Haile, Zelalem Teka

    2015-01-01

    We examined gender differences in the perception of high malaria risk in women and factors associated with a high number of malaria episodes in the Mwea Division of Central Kenya. Ethnographic and successive free listing interviews (an open-ended data collection technique used to show the relation of items in a given domain) with 53 key informants and structured interviews conducted from June to October 2010 with 250 respondents who represented the socioeconomic and geographical diversity of the area were analyzed. Qualitative text analysis and inferential statistics were employed. While a greater proportion of men (51.6%) attributed women's high malaria risk to their "biological weakness," most women believed that their high malaria risk was related to their role in the agricultural fields (43.6%) and to their household responsibilities (23.1%). Compared to men, women were more likely to work in wet aspects of agricultural activities (χ(2) (2, N = 153) = 13.47, p gender roles in agricultural communities in Mwea may play an important role in explaining disparity in reported malaria incidence. While identification of ecological and economic determinants of malaria is important, gender-based research can make a significant contribution to the development of effective and sustainable malaria reduction strategies.

  13. Assessment of individual and household malaria risk factors among women in a South African village.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutegeki, Ezra; Chimbari, Moses John; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2017-11-01

    There is need to understand how various malaria risk factors interact at the individual, household and community levels, as well as wider contexts, in order to guide the design and implementation of effective and more comprehensive control strategies. Using a cross-sectional approach, this study investigated various malaria risk factors among residents of Mgedula Village, a malaria-endemic community located in Jozini Local Municipality, UMkhanyakude District, South Africa from May to August 2014. Data from 121 randomly sampled women were collected using close-ended questionnaires. The women were aged between 18 and 40 years; and had been residents in the study area for five years or more. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to measure the association between a history of malaria infection in the previous 12 months and various potential risk factors. The results showed that practicing animal husbandry (OR 20), residing in household structures that had not been sprayed (OR 16.7) and cross-border movement (OR 14.3) were greatly associated with malaria infection. Other factors that were significantly associated with this infection included illiteracy (OR 9.1), having a largely populated household (OR 6.1) and low income (OR 1.65). Individuals with a history of malaria infection were less likely to lack basic malaria-related knowledge (OR 0.58), to have negative attitude towards malaria (OR 0.29) and also to have poor malaria practices (OR 0.3). There was no association between a malaria episode and residing at a long distance from the health facility. Indoor residual spraying indicated a notable reduction of malaria risk at the community level. However, other socio-economic, geographical and socio-demographic factors interacted at different levels to increase this risk among different individuals and households. To achieve malaria elimination by the year 2018, these aspects should be considered when developing and implementing elimination strategies at

  14. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtj?rn, Bernt

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 4...

  15. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  16. Deconstructing the risk for malaria in United States donors deferred for travel to Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Bryan; Kleinman, Steven; Custer, Brian; Cable, Ritchard; Wilkinson, Susan L; Steele, Whitney; High, Patrick M; Wright, David

    2011-11-01

    More than 66,000 blood donors are deferred annually in the United States due to travel to malaria-endemic areas of Mexico. Mexico accounts for the largest share of malaria travel deferrals, yet it has extremely low risk for malaria transmission throughout most of its national territory, suggesting a suboptimal balance between blood safety and availability. This study sought to determine whether donor deferral requirements might be relaxed for parts of Mexico without compromising blood safety. Travel destination was recorded from a representative sample of presenting blood donors deferred for malaria travel from six blood centers during 2006. We imputed to these donors reporting Mexican travel a risk for acquiring malaria equivalent to Mexican residents in the destination location, adjusted for length of stay. We extrapolated these results to the overall US blood donor population. Risk for malaria in Mexico varies significantly across endemic areas and is greatest in areas infrequently visited by study donors. More than 70% of blood donor deferrals were triggered by travel to the state of Quintana Roo on the Yucatán Peninsula, an area of very low malaria transmission. Eliminating the travel deferral requirement for all areas except the state of Oaxaca might result in the recovery of almost 65,000 blood donors annually at risk of approximately one contaminated unit collected every 20 years. Deferral requirements should be relaxed for presenting donors who traveled to areas within Mexico that confer exceptionally small risks for malaria, such as Quintana Roo. © 2011 American Association of Blood Banks.

  17. Risk assessment and prevention of malaria among Italian troops in Afghanistan, 2002 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peragallo, Mario S; Sarnicola, Giuseppe; Boccolini, Daniela; Romi, Roberto; Mammana, Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Malaria prevention policy is different among coalition troops in Afghanistan, ranging from the combined use of suppressive and terminal chemoprophylaxis to the absence of any prophylactic regimen. The objective of this study was to assess the compliance with malaria prevention measures and the risk of malaria among Italian troops in Afghanistan. Target population was the cohort of 32,500 army soldiers deployed in Afghanistan, 2002 to 2011; eligible subjects were the 21,900 soldiers stationed in endemic areas, who were prescribed mefloquine chemoprophylaxis. Adherence to chemoprophylaxis was assessed by a cross-sectional study in a volunteer sample of 5,773 (26.4%) of eligible subjects. The risk of malaria was assessed by detecting malaria cases in the target population. Mefloquine chemoprophylaxis was administered to 4,123 (71.4%) of the 5,773 enrolled soldiers and 3,575 (86.7%) of these took it regularly; however, compliance dropped from 80.9% (2,592/3,202) in 2002 to 2006 to 59.5% (1,531/2,571) in 2007 to 2011 (p Afghanistan, and one Plasmodium vivax case was reported in Italy, yielding an incidence rate of 3.24 cases per 10,000 person-months of exposure (1/3,091) during the transmission season of 2003. In spite of the decreasing compliance with chemoprophylaxis, suggesting a low perception of the risk of malaria, this study confirmed the good tolerability of mefloquine in the military. The risk of malaria for Italian troops in Afghanistan was very low, and chemoprophylaxis was suspended in 2012. A similar policy may be adopted by the generality of International Security Assistance Force troops, and any chemoprophylaxis may be restricted to soldiers stationing in areas where the risk of malaria is substantial. © 2013 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  18. The impact of endemic and epidemic malaria on the risk of stillbirth in two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutabingwa TK

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The impact of malaria on the risk of stillbirth is still under debate. The aim of the present analysis was to determine comparative changes in stillbirth prevalence between two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns in order to estimate the malaria attributable component. Methods A retrospective analysis was completed of stillbirth differences between primigravidae and multigravidae in relation to malaria cases and transmission patterns for two different areas of Tanzania with a focus on the effects of the El Niño southern climatic oscillation (ENSO. One area, Kagera, experiences outbreaks of malaria, and the other area, Morogoro, is holoendemic. Delivery and malaria data were collected over a six year period from records of the two district hospitals in these locations. Results There was a significantly higher prevalence of low birthweight in primigravidae compared to multigravidae for both data sets. Low birthweight and stillbirth prevalence (17.5% and 4.8% were significantly higher in Kilosa compared to Ndolage (11.9% and 2.4%. There was a significant difference in stillbirth prevalence between Ndolage and Kilosa between malaria seasons (2.4% and 5.6% respectively, p Conclusion Malaria exposure during pregnancy has a delayed effect on birthweight outcomes, but a more acute effect on stillbirth risk.

  19. Erythrocytic ferroportin reduces intracellular iron accumulation, hemolysis, and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, De-Liang; Wu, Jian; Shah, Binal N; Greutélaers, Katja C; Ghosh, Manik C; Ollivierre, Hayden; Su, Xin-Zhuan; Thuma, Philip E; Bedu-Addo, George; Mockenhaupt, Frank P; Gordeuk, Victor R; Rouault, Tracey A

    2018-03-30

    Malaria parasites invade red blood cells (RBCs), consume copious amounts of hemoglobin, and severely disrupt iron regulation in humans. Anemia often accompanies malaria disease; however, iron supplementation therapy inexplicably exacerbates malarial infections. Here we found that the iron exporter ferroportin (FPN) was highly abundant in RBCs, and iron supplementation suppressed its activity. Conditional deletion of the Fpn gene in erythroid cells resulted in accumulation of excess intracellular iron, cellular damage, hemolysis, and increased fatality in malaria-infected mice. In humans, a prevalent FPN mutation, Q248H (glutamine to histidine at position 248), prevented hepcidin-induced degradation of FPN and protected against severe malaria disease. FPN Q248H appears to have been positively selected in African populations in response to the impact of malaria disease. Thus, FPN protects RBCs against oxidative stress and malaria infection. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  20. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  1. Malaria and Tropical Travel

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Malaria is a serious mosquito-borne disease that can lead to death. This podcast discusses malaria risk when traveling to tropical areas, as well as how to protect yourself and your family from malaria infection.

  2. Malaria prevalence, risk factors and spatial distribution in a hilly forest area of Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ubydul Haque

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health concern in Bangladesh and it is highly endemic in the Chittagong Hill Tracts where prevalence was 11.7% in 2007. One sub-district, Rajasthali, had a prevalence of 36%. Several interventions were introduced in early 2007 to control malaria. This study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of these intensive early stage interventions on malaria in Bangladesh. This prevalence study assesses whether or not high malaria prevalence remains, and if so, which areas and individuals remain at high risk of infection. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A 2-stage cluster sampling technique was used to sample 1,400 of 5,322 (26.3% households in Rajasthali, and screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax. Overall malaria prevalence was 11.5%. The proportions of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and infection with both species were 93.2%, 1.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and spatial cluster analyses were performed separately. Sex, age, number of bed nets, forest cover, altitude and household density were potential risk factors. A statistically significant malaria cluster was identified. Significant differences among risk factors were observed between cluster and non-cluster areas. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria has significantly decreased within 2 years after onset of intervention program. Both aspects of the physical and social environment, as well as demographic characteristics are associated with spatial heterogeneity of risk. The ability to identify and locate these areas provides a strategy for targeting interventions during initial stages of intervention programs. However, in high risk clusters of transmission, even extensive coverage by current programs leaves transmission ongoing at reduced levels. This indicates the need for continued development of new strategies for identification and treatment as well as improved understanding of the patterns and

  3. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  4. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Risk of malaria transmission through blood transfusion and its detection by serological method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, M.; Akhtar, G.N.; Rashid, S.; Lodhi, Y.

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To assess the risk of transmission of malaria through blood transfusion, and compare efficacy of testing by immuno chromatographic (ICT) devices vis a vis peripheral blood film (PBF). Results: Amongst healthy blood donors we did not find even a single case of malaria and there was no report of persistent post transfusion pyrexia. We are unable to comment on species frequency in blood donors. However, amongst known patients of malaria we found a higher frequency of Plasmodium viax(P.v) as compared to Plasmodium falciparum(P.f). Testing by serological method, helped us to diagnose 5% of our patients who were missed by peripheral blood films. Conclusion: Between properly selected voluntary non-remunerated blood donors the incidence of malaria transmission is zero and the blood is safe for transfusion. Serological testing shows good correlation with peripheral blood film detection. In fact, it can detect the disease even when film detection has been unsuccessful. If proper donor selection criteria are observed there is little risk of transmitting malaria through transfusion. However, as the donor pool in the Service is not necessarily totally the of voluntary non-remunerated donors and substantive numbers of replacement/first time, occasionally uneducated/unaware donors, are being bled, screening for malaria will not be totally unrewarding. (author)

  6. Mapping Malaria Transmission Risk in Northern Morocco Using Entomological and Environmental Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Adlaoui

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria resurgence risk in Morocco depends, among other factors, on environmental changes as well as the introduction of parasite carriers. The aim of this paper is to analyze the receptivity of the Loukkos area, large wetlands in Northern Morocco, to quantify and to map malaria transmission risk in this region using biological and environmental data. This risk was assessed on entomological risk basis and was mapped using environmental markers derived from satellite imagery. Maps showing spatial and temporal variations of entomological risk for Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum were produced. Results showed this risk to be highly seasonal and much higher in rice fields than in swamps. This risk is lower for Afrotropical P. falciparum strains because of the low infectivity of Anopheles labranchiae, principal malaria vector in Morocco. However, it is very high for P. vivax mainly during summer corresponding to the rice cultivation period. Although the entomological risk is high in Loukkos region, malaria resurgence risk remains very low, because of the low vulnerability of the area.

  7. Prevalence of congenital malaria in high-risk Ghanaian newborns: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enweronu-Laryea Christabel C

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Congenital malaria is defined as malaria parasitaemia in the first week of life. The reported prevalence of congenital malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is variable (0 - 46%. Even though the clinical significance of congenital malaria parasitaemia is uncertain, anti-malarial drugs are empirically prescribed for sick newborns by frontline health care workers. Data on prevalence of congenital malaria in high-risk newborns will inform appropriate drug use and timely referral of sick newborns. Methods Blood samples of untreated newborns less than 1 week of age at the time of referral to Korle Bu Teaching hospital in Accra, Ghana during the peak malaria seasons (April to July of 2008 and 2010 were examined for malaria parasites by, i Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood smears for parasite count and species identification, ii histidine-rich protein- and lactic dehydrogenase-based rapid diagnosis tests, or iii polymerase chain reaction amplification of the merozoite surface protein 2 gene, for identification of sub-microscopic parasitaemia. Other investigations were also done as clinically indicated. Results In 2008, nine cases of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia were diagnosed by microscopy in 405 (2.2% newborns. All the nine newborns had low parasite densities (≤50 per microlitre. In 2010, there was no case of parasitaemia by either microscopy or rapid diagnosis tests in 522 newborns; however, 56/467 (12% cases of P. falciparum were detected by polymerase chain reaction. Conclusion Congenital malaria is an uncommon cause of clinical illness in high-risk untreated newborns referred to a tertiary hospital in the first week of life. Empirical anti-malarial drug treatment for sick newborns without laboratory confirmation of parasitaemia is imprudent. Early referral of sick newborns to hospitals with resources and skills for appropriate care is recommended.

  8. Physiographic and entomologic risk factors of malaria in Assam, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dev, Vas; Phookan, Sobhan; Sharma, Vinod P; Anand, Suraj P

    2004-10-01

    Fever surveys were conducted in several districts of the Indian state of Assam to ascertain the prevalence of malaria in relation to vector abundance, entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs), and geographic location of human settlements. Anopheles minimus were incriminated, but their relative abundance and biting rates varied among districts, and no significant correlation was observed between these two indicators (r = 0.43, P = 0.34). Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant parasite species except in two districts where P. vivax was the majority parasite. The EIRs per person/night were 0.46-0.71 in P. falciparum-predominant areas and 0.12 in the district where P. vivax predominated. The correlation of percentage of fever cases positive for malaria infection in each district with the corresponding EIR was not significant (r = 0.6, P = 0.21). Malaria cases were detected in all months of the year but peaked during May-June, which corresponded to the months of heavy rainfall. These were also the months with highest incidence of infection with P. falciparum. Malaria cases were observed in all age groups of both sexes, and there was clustering of cases in villages near the vector-breeding habitat (perennial seepage streams), and foothill villages. However, malaria incidences were consistently lower in villages within 5 km of the nearest health care facility, which were in town areas. The data presented are indicative of low-to-moderate levels of malaria transmission by An. minimus, and would be of value for developing future intervention strategies.

  9. Towards a risk map of malaria for Sri Lanka: the importance of house location relative to vector breeding sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Der Hoek, Wim; Konradsen, Flemming; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H

    2003-01-01

    of house location relative to vector breeding sites for the occurrence of malaria in order to assess the usefulness of this parameter in future malaria risk maps. Such risk maps could be important tools for planning efficient malaria control measures. METHODS: In a group of seven villages in north central......BACKGROUND: In Sri Lanka, the major malaria vector Anopheles culicifacies breeds in pools formed in streams and river beds and it is likely that people living close to such breeding sites are at higher risk of malaria than people living further away. This study was done to quantify the importance...... Sri Lanka, malaria cases were compared with community controls for distance from house to breeding sites and a number of other variables, including type of housing construction and use of anti-mosquito measures. The presence of An. culicifacies in bedrooms was determined by indoor insecticide spray...

  10. Independent Associations of Maternal Education and Household Wealth with Malaria Risk in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José G. Siri

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite evidence that they play similar but independent roles, maternal education and household wealth are usually conflated in studies of the effects of socioeconomic status (SES on malaria risk. Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey data from nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa were used to explore the relationship of malaria parasitemia in children with SES factors at individual and cluster scales, controlling for urban/rural residence and other important covariates. In multilevel logistic regression modeling, completion of six years of maternal schooling was associated with significantly lower odds of infection in children (OR = 0.73, as was a household wealth index at the 40th percentile compared to the lowest percentile (OR = 0.48. These relationships were nonlinear, with significant quadratic terms for both education and wealth. Cluster-level wealth index was also associated with a reduction in risk (OR = 0.984 for a one percentile increase in mean wealth index, as was urban residence (OR = 0.59. Among other covariates, increasing child's age and household size category were positively correlated with infection, and sleeping under an insecticide-treated bednet the previous night (OR = 0.80 was associated with a moderate reduction in risk. Considerable variation in parameter estimates was observed among country-specific models. Future work should clearly distinguish between maternal education and household resources in assessing malaria risk, and malaria prevention and control efforts should be aware of the potential benefits of supporting the development of human capital.

  11. Urban malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa: where is the evidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Neville

    2007-03-01

    It is essential that the precautions that are advisable for travel in sub-Saharan Africa, including antimalarial prophylaxis, are supported by evidence. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 90% of global malaria cases and the more serious falciparum form predominates. The risk of malaria transmission is qualitatively much greater in rural than urban areas. However, there is little quantitative data on the risk in urban areas on which to base a risk assessment. Rapid urban population growth and trends of tourism to urban-only (rather than rural) areas both support the need to focus attention on the level of risk in malaria endemic African cities. There is evidence in urban settings that the reduced intensity of malaria transmission is due to a decline in the level of parasitism in the local population and reduced anophelism. The most useful evidence for an urban risk assessment is the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) which is generally below 30 infective bites per person per year. Transmission is acknowledged to be much lower in central urban areas compared with peri-urban areas or rural areas. Transmission is local and focal because the anopheles mosquito has a limited flight range of several kilometres. The risk assessment should examine nocturnal activities outside an air-conditioned environment (because the anopheline mosquito only bites between dusk and dawn) and the level of adherence to accompanying protective measures. Several studies have noted the protection air-conditioning provides against malaria. Evidence of low occupational risk for airline crew, unprotected by prophylaxis, from brief layovers of several nights in quality hotels in 8 endemic cities is explored. A literature search examines the evidence of environmental surveys and entomological inoculation rates. The limitations of the available data are discussed, including the highly focal nature of malaria transmission.

  12. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  13. Climate Change Is Increasing the Risk of the Reemergence of Malaria in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodale, Ilie; Florescu, Simin-Aysel; Roman, Constantin; Acatrinei, Dumitru

    2016-01-01

    The climatic modifications lead to global warming; favouring the risk of the appearance and development of diseases are considered until now tropical diseases. Another important factor is the workers' immigration, the economic crisis favouring the passive transmission of new species of culicidae from different areas. Malaria is the disease with the widest distribution in the globe. Millions of people are infected every year in Africa, India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Central and South America, with more than 41% of the global population under the risk of infestation with malaria. The increase of the number of local cases reported in 2007–2011 indicates that the conditions can favour the high local transmission in the affected areas. In the situation presented, the establishment of the level of risk concerning the reemergence of malaria in Romania becomes a priority. PMID:27847824

  14. Climate Change Is Increasing the Risk of the Reemergence of Malaria in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Ivanescu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The climatic modifications lead to global warming; favouring the risk of the appearance and development of diseases are considered until now tropical diseases. Another important factor is the workers’ immigration, the economic crisis favouring the passive transmission of new species of culicidae from different areas. Malaria is the disease with the widest distribution in the globe. Millions of people are infected every year in Africa, India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Central and South America, with more than 41% of the global population under the risk of infestation with malaria. The increase of the number of local cases reported in 2007–2011 indicates that the conditions can favour the high local transmission in the affected areas. In the situation presented, the establishment of the level of risk concerning the reemergence of malaria in Romania becomes a priority.

  15. An evaluation of the use of reported febrile illness in predicting malaria in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nnaji, G A; Ikechebelu, J I

    2007-11-01

    The object of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of reported febrile illness in predicting malaria in pregnant women at booking in NAUTH, Nnewi. This was a case control prospective survey using a structured questionnaire to collect data from pregnant women attending antenatal clinic of Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital between April and September 2001. Peripheral blood smears were examined in 420 pregnant women during their first antenatal visit. This study showed that 57.4% of parasitaemic pregnant women and 54% of aparasitaemic pregnant women reported fever before their first antenatal visit. The sensitivity and specificity of reported febrile illness in predicting malaria were 57.4% and 46%, respectively. However, the predictive value of a positive test was as high as 80.25%, while it was only 22% for the predictive value of a negative test. The efficiency of reported febrile illness as a screening device was 55%. Reliance on reported febrile illness will not be adequate to identify parasitaemic pregnant women because many of those with heavy placental parasitisation may not report fever. This justifies the place of the intermittent presumptive therapy using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine in pregnant women living in malaria endemic areas such as sub-Saharan Africa.

  16. GIS malaria risk assessment of Akure North and South Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Health-based survey, larval survey, socio-economic survey, and Geographic Information System (GIS) were used in achieving the objectives of the study. Larvae of mosquitoes were collected from breeding sites across the study areas; information on reported malaria cases from year 2010 to 2013 were retrieved from ...

  17. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Design Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007–2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to Somalia. Participants Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Main outcome measure Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. Results The contemporary annual PfPR2–10 map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR2–10). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%–50% PfPR2–10) and the rest as hypoendemic. Conclusion Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning. PMID:22855625

  18. Equity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Robert W; Okiro, Emelda A; Gething, Peter W; Atun, Rifat; Hay, Simon I

    2010-10-23

    Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions. Populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax transmission were calculated for 2007 and 2009 for 93 malaria-endemic countries to measure biological need. National per-person gross domestic product (GDP) was used to define economic need. An analysis of external donor assistance for malaria control was done for the period 2002-09 to compute overall and annualised per-person at-risk-funding commitments. Annualised malaria donor assistance was compared with independent predictions of funding needed to reach international targets of 80% coverage of best practices in case-management and effective disease prevention. Countries were ranked in relation to biological, economic, and unmet needs to examine equity and adequacy of support by 2010. International financing for malaria control has increased by 166% (from $0·73 billion to $1·94 billion) since 2007 and is broadly consistent with biological needs. African countries have become major recipients of external assistance; however, countries where P vivax continues to pose threats to control ambitions are not as well funded. 21 countries have reached adequate assistance to provide a comprehensive suite of interventions by 2009, including 12 countries in Africa. However, this assistance was inadequate for 50 countries representing 61% of the worldwide population at risk of malaria-including ten countries in Africa and five in Asia that coincidentally are some of the poorest countries. Approval of donor funding for malaria control does not correlate with GDP. Funding for malaria control worldwide is 60% lower than the US$4·9 billion needed for comprehensive control in 2010; this includes

  19. Noninvasive measures of brain edema predict outcome in pediatric cerebral malaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kampondeni, Samuel D; Birbeck, Gretchen L; Seydel, Karl B; Beare, Nicholas A; Glover, Simon J; Hammond, Colleen A; Chilingulo, Cowles A; Taylor, Terrie E; Potchen, Michael J

    2018-01-01

    Increased brain volume (BV) and subsequent herniation are strongly associated with death in pediatric cerebral malaria (PCM), a leading killer of children in developing countries. Accurate noninvasive measures of BV are needed for optimal clinical trial design. Our objectives were to examine the performance of six different magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) BV quantification measures for predicting mortality in PCM and to review the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Receiver operator characteristics were generated from BV measures of MRIs of children admitted to an ongoing research project with PCM between 2009 and 2014. Fatal cases were matched to the next available survivor. A total of 78 MRIs of children aged 5 months to 13 years (mean 4.0 years), of which 45% were males, were included. Areas under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval on measures from the initial MRIs were: Radiologist-derived score = 0.69 (0.58-0.79; P = 0.0037); prepontine cistern anteroposterior (AP) dimension = 0.70 (0.56-0.78; P = 0.0133); SamKam ratio [Rt. parietal lobe height/(prepontine AP dimension + fourth ventricle AP dimension)] = 0.74 (0.63-0.83; P = 0.0002); and global cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) space ascertained by ClearCanvas = 0.67 (0.55-0.77; P = 0.0137). For patients with serial MRIs ( n = 37), the day 2 global CSF space AUC was 0.87 (0.71-0.96; P dimension ≤3 mm; cisternal CSF volume ≤7.5 ml; SamKam ratio ≥6.5; and recovery factor ≤0.75. All noninvasive measures of BV performed well in predicting death and providing a proxy measure for brain volume. Initial MRI assessment may inform future clinical trials for subject selection, risk adjustment, or stratification. Measures of temporal change may be used to stage PCM.

  20. Kenya develops tool to predict malaria | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2010-10-13

    Oct 13, 2010 ... In collaboration with scientists from the Kenya Meteorological Department and the International Centre ... a scientific model that uses weather predictions, information about the reproductive mechanisms of ... Related articles ...

  1. Risk factors for helminth, malaria, and HIV infection in pregnancy in Entebbe, Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick William Woodburn

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Infections during pregnancy may have serious consequences for both mother and baby. Assessment of risk factors for infections informs planning of interventions and analysis of the impact of infections on health outcomes.To describe risk factors for helminths, malaria and HIV in pregnant Ugandan women before intervention in a trial of de-worming in pregnancy.The trial recruited 2,507 pregnant women between April 2003 and November 2005. Participants were interviewed and blood and stool samples obtained; location of residence at enrolment was mapped. Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral and other risk factors were modelled using logistic regression.There was a high prevalence of helminth, malaria and HIV infection, as previously reported. All helminths and malaria parasitemia were more common in younger women, and education was protective against every infection. Place of birth and/or tribe affected all helminths in a pattern consistent with the geographical distribution of helminth infections in Uganda. Four different geohelminths (hookworm, Trichuris, Ascaris and Trichostrongylus showed a downwards trend in prevalence during the enrolment period. There was a negative association between hookworm and HIV, and between hookworm and low CD4 count among HIV-positive women. Locally, high prevalence of schistosomiasis and HIV occurred in lakeshore communities.Interventions for helminths, malaria and HIV need to target young women both in and out of school. Antenatal interventions for malaria and HIV infection must continue to be promoted. Women originating from a high risk area for a helminth infection remain at high risk after migration to a lower-risk area, and vice versa, but overall, geohelminths seem to be becoming less common in this population. High risk populations, such as fishing communities, require directed effort against schistosomiasis and HIV infection.

  2. Assessing the risk of self-diagnosed malaria in urban informal settlements of Nairobi using self-reported morbidity survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mugisha Frederick

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of the belief that Nairobi is a low risk zone for malaria, little empirical data exists on malaria risk in the area. The aim of this study was to explore the risk of perceived malaria and some associated factors in Nairobi informal settlements using self-reported morbidity survey. Methods The survey was conducted from May to August 2004 on 7,288 individuals in two informal settlements of Nairobi. Participants were asked to report illnesses they experienced in the past 14 days. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of perceived-malaria. The model included variables such as site of residence, age, ethnicity and number of reported symptoms. Results Participants reported 165 illnesses among which malaria was the leading cause (28.1%. The risk of perceived-malaria was significantly higher in Viwandani compared to Korogocho (OR 1.61, 95%CI: 1.10–2.26. Participants in age group 25–39 years had significantly higher odds of perceived-malaria compared to those under-five years (OR 2.07, 95%CI: 1.43–2.98. The Kikuyu had reduced odds of perceived-malaria compared to other ethnic groups. Individuals with five and more symptoms had higher odds compared to those with no symptoms (OR 23.69, 95%CI: 12.98–43.23. Conclusion Malaria was the leading cause of illness as perceived by the residents in the two informal settlements. This was rational as the number of reported symptoms was highly associated with the risk of reporting the illness. These results highlight the need for a more comprehensive assessment of malaria epidemiology in Nairobi to be able to offer evidence-based guidance to policy on malaria in Kenya and particularly in Nairobi.

  3. Climate change as an amplifier of health risks: highland malaria in Africa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huynen, Maud; Martens, Pim

    2016-01-01

    The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. In this chapter, this is illustrated for an important health risk induced by climate change, namely highland malaria in Africa. Despite the known causal links between

  4. Recent Change of Locality as Risk Factor for Malaria Fever Among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DATONYE ALASIA

    immune travelers to malarious areas, has also been found to be a ... Youth Service Corps members serving in a district in southern ... Recent Change of Locality as Risk Factor for Malaria Fever Among New Residents of. Ahoada East Local ...

  5. Quantifying the Number of Pregnancies at Risk of Malaria in 2007: A Demographic Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellicour, S.; Tatem, A.J.; Guerra, C.A.; Snow, R.W.; ter Kuile, F.O.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Comprehensive and contemporary estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria are not currently available, particularly for endemic areas outside of Africa. We derived global estimates of the number of women who became pregnant in 2007 in areas with Plasmodium falciparum and

  6. Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

    2014-11-01

    Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

  7. How well are malaria maps used to design and finance malaria control in Africa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judy A Omumbo

    Full Text Available Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed.An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated.91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control.The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be necessary to guide appropriate

  8. How well are malaria maps used to design and finance malaria control in Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omumbo, Judy A; Noor, Abdisalan M; Fall, Ibrahima S; Snow, Robert W

    2013-01-01

    Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed. An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated. 91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control. The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be necessary to guide appropriate financing for malaria

  9. How Well Are Malaria Maps Used to Design and Finance Malaria Control in Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omumbo, Judy A.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Fall, Ibrahima S.; Snow, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed. Materials and Methods An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated. Results 91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control. Conclusion The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be

  10. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward malaria risk and prevention among frequent business travelers of a major oil and gas company.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Johannes; Breederveld, Daan; Roukens, Anna H; Hennink, Yvonne; Schouten, Marjolijn; Wendt, Judy K; Visser, Leo G

    2011-01-01

    Despite significant morbidity and mortality among business travelers due to malaria, very little has been published on knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) toward malaria risk. The aim of this study was to assess KAP among frequent international business travelers (FBT) and to identify recommendations for improving malaria prevention that could be applied to the wider FBT community in occupational health. A retrospective web-based survey was conducted in 2005 among self-registered FBT of an oil and gas company based in the Netherlands. The survey was completed by 328 of the 608 self-registered FBT (54%). Fifty-four percent of respondents had visited a high-risk area for malaria. Most respondents (96%) were experienced travelers; the majority (71%) sought health advice before their trip and made use of a company health resource. Fever was recognized as a malaria symptom by all FBT; travel to high-risk malaria areas was correctly identified by 96%, and 99% of these travelers adhered to use of adequate personal protective measures. The proportion of travelers carrying appropriate anti-malaria drug regimen was positively associated with receiving company advice among FBT traveling to high-risk destinations (RR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.21-3.67), but not for those traveling to low- or no-risk destinations. Only 8% (14) of those going to a high-risk area were not carrying malaria prophylaxis. One in five of FBT traveling to no-risk areas were unnecessarily carrying malaria prophylaxis. The majority of KAP results were excellent. We postulate that a company culture with a strong focus on health, safety, security, and environment can positively contribute to high KAP scores. Notwithstanding the excellent findings, this study also provides a cautionary tale for company health functions against overprescribing of malaria prophylaxis. It demonstrates the need for constant review and audit of adherence to quality criteria. © 2011 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  11. Malaria in Hadhramout, a southeast province of Yemen: prevalence, risk factors, knowledge, attitude and practices (KAPs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamaga, Omar A A; Mahdy, Mohammed A K; Mahmud, Rohela; Lim, Yvonne A L

    2014-07-29

    Yemen is a Mediterranean country where 65% of its population is at risk of malaria, with 43% at high risk. Yemen is still in the control phase without sustainable reduction in the proportion of malaria cases. A cross-sectional household survey was carried out in different districts in the southeast of the country to determine malaria prevalence and identify factors that impede progress of the elimination phase. Blood specimens were collected from 735 individuals aged 1-66 years. Plasmodium species were detected and identified by microscopic examination of Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood smears. A household-based questionnaire was used to collect demographic, socioeconomic and environmental data. The overall prevalence of malaria was 18.8% with Plasmodium falciparum as the predominant species (99.3%), with a low rate of Plasmodium vivax detected (0.7%). The infection rate was higher in Al-Raydah and Qusyer districts (21.8%) compared to Hajer district (11.8%). Fifty-two percent of the persons positive for Plasmodium were asymptomatic with low parasite density. The adults had a higher infection rate as compared to children. Univariate analysis identified those whose household's head are fishermen (OR = 11.3, 95% CI: 3.13-40.5) and farmers (OR = 4.84, 95% CI: 1.73-13.6) as high-risk groups. A higher number of positive smears were observed in people living in houses with uncemented brick walls (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.32-3.30), without access to toilets (OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.05-2.32), without a fridge (OR = 1. 6, 95% CI: 1.05-2.30), or without TV (OR = 1. 6, (95% CI: 1.05-2.30). People living in houses with water collection points located less than 200 meters away were also at higher risk of acquiring malaria (OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.05-2.30). Knowledge about the importance of using insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) for prevention of malaria was 7% and 2%, respectively. Several environmental, socioeconomic

  12. Using participatory risk analysis to develop a song about malaria for young children in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Chad M; McCrindle, Cheryl M E; Kruger, Taneshka; McNeill, Fraser

    2018-04-27

    In 2015, malaria infected over 212 million people and killed over 429,000 individuals, mostly children under 5 years of age, with 90% of malaria cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim was to develop an age and culturally appropriate song for Tshivenda-speaking children under 5 years of age to decrease the risk of malaria in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Document review was used to identify appropriate disease determinants to decrease risk in children develop lyrics and music for a song about malaria in line with the principles of participatory risk analysis. The age and cultural appropriateness of the song as well as disease determinants chosen were reviewed using a modified Delphi technique, by 10 purposively selected experts in malaria (4), Vhavenda music (3) and early childhood education (3). Thereafter, the song was translated into Tshivenda and reviewed by two focus groups living in the study area, one including female caregivers and pre-school teachers (n = 7) and a second comprising of male community based malaria control personnel (n = 5). The experts surveyed and both focus groups strongly supported the inclusion of knowledge about the link between mosquitoes and malaria and that children should know the signs of malaria to facilitate early diagnosis. Although the expert group felt that bed nets should not be mentioned, both focus groups suggested the inclusion of bed nets and it was observed that community members were purchasing their own nets. Focus group members also felt that young children should not be involved in internal residual spraying initiatives. It was concluded that although risk communication on malaria prevention and treatment in young children should be aimed at caregivers, an age and culture appropriate song about malaria could be developed to help young children protect themselves. This song focused on understanding the link between mosquitoes and malaria, preventing exposure and recognising signs of disease.

  13. Malaria and human immunodeficiency virus infection as risk factors for anemia in infants in Kisumu, western Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijk, Anna M.; Ayisi, John G.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Misore, Ambrose O.; Otieno, Juliana A.; Kolczak, Margarette S.; Kager, Piet A.; Steketee, Richard W.; Nahlen, Bernard L.

    2002-01-01

    The role of maternal and pediatric infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and malaria as risk factors for anemia was determined in a birth cohort of infants born to mothers participating in a study of the interaction between placental malaria and HIV infection, in Kisumu, Kenya.

  14. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

    2010-06-16

    Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data

  15. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loha Eskindir

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations, temperature (17 locations, and relative humidity (three locations. Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location

  16. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  17. Malaria risk factors and care-seeking behaviour within the private sector among high-risk populations in Vietnam: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ingrid; Thanh, Huong Ngo Thi; Lover, Andrew; Thao, Phung Thi; Luu, Tang Viet; Thang, Hoang Nghia; Thang, Ngo Duc; Neukom, Josselyn; Bennett, Adam

    2017-10-16

    Vietnam has successfully reduced malaria incidence by more than 90% over the past 10 years, and is now preparing for malaria elimination. However, the remaining malaria burden resides in individuals that are hardest to reach, in highly remote areas, where many malaria cases are treated through the informal private sector and are not reported to public health systems. This qualitative study aimed to contextualize and characterize the role of private providers, care-seeking behaviour of individuals at high risk of malaria, as well as risk factors that should be addressed through malaria elimination programmes in Vietnam. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 11 key informants in Hanoi, 30 providers, 9 potential patients, and 11 individuals at risk of malaria in Binh Phuoc and Kon Tum provinces. Audio recorded interviews were transcribed and uploaded to Atlas TI™, themes were identified, from which programmatic implications and recommendations were synthesized. Qualitative interviews revealed that efforts for malaria elimination in Vietnam should concentrate on reaching highest-risk populations in remote areas as well their care providers, in particular private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Among these private providers, diagnosis is currently based on symptoms, leaving unconfirmed cases that are not reported to public health surveillance systems. Among at-risk individuals, knowledge of malaria was limited, and individuals reported not taking full courses of treatment, a practice that threatens selection for drug resistance. Access to insecticide-treated hammock nets, a potentially important preventive measure for settings with outdoor biting Anopheles vectors, was also limited. Malaria elimination efforts in Vietnam can be accelerated by targeting improved treatment, diagnosis, and reporting practices to private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Programmes should also seek to increase awareness and

  18. Social and environmental malaria risk factors in urban areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ouedraogo Herman

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite low endemicity, malaria remains a major health problem in urban areas where a high proportion of fevers are presumptively treated using anti-malarial drugs. Low acquired malaria immunity, behaviour of city-dwellers, access to health care and preventive interventions, and heterogenic suitability of urban ecosystems for malaria transmission contribute to the complexity of the malaria epidemiology in urban areas. Methods The study was designed to identify the determinants of malaria transmission estimated by the prevalence of anti-circumsporozoite (CSP antibodies, the prevalence and density of Plasmodium falciparum infection, and the prevalence of malarial disease in areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso. Thick blood smears, dried blood spots and clinical status have been collected from 3,354 randomly chosen children aged 6 months to 12 years using two cross-sectional surveys (during the dry and rainy seasons in eight areas from four ecological strata defined according to building density and land tenure (regular versus irregular. Demographic characteristics, socio-economic information, and sanitary and environmental data concerning the children or their households were simultaneously collected. Dependent variables were analysed using mixed multivariable models with random effects, taking into account the clustering of participants within compounds and areas. Results Overall prevalences of CSP-antibodies and P. falciparum infections were 7.7% and 16.6% during the dry season, and 12.4% and 26.1% during the rainy season, respectively, with significant differences according to ecological strata. Malaria risk was significantly higher among children who i lived in households with lower economic or education levels, iii near the hydrographic network, iv in sparsely built-up areas, v in irregularly built areas, vi who did not use a bed net, vii were sampled during the rainy season or ii had traveled outside of Ouagadougou

  19. Predicting the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets on malaria transmission: the devil is in the detail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Weidong; Novak, Robert J

    2009-11-16

    Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), including long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), play a primary role in global campaigns to roll back malaria in tropical Africa. Effectiveness of treated nets depends on direct impacts on individual mosquitoes including killing and excite-repellency, which vary considerably among vector species due to variations in host-seeking behaviours. While monitoring and evaluation programmes of ITNs have focuses on morbidity and all-cause mortality in humans, local entomological context receives little attention. Without knowing the dynamics of local vector species and their responses to treated nets, it is difficult to predict clinical outcomes when ITN applications are scaled up across African continent. Sound model frameworks incorporating intricate interactions between mosquitoes and treated nets are needed to develop the predictive capacity for scale-up applications of ITNs. An established agent-based model was extended to incorporate the direct outcomes, e.g. killing and avoidance, of individual mosquitoes exposing to ITNs in a hypothetical village setting with 50 houses and 90 aquatic habitats. Individual mosquitoes were tracked throughout the life cycle across the landscape. Four levels of coverage, i.e. 40, 60, 80 and 100%, were applied at the household level with treated houses having only one bed net. By using Latin hypercube sampling scheme, parameters governing killing, diverting and personal protection of net users were evaluated for their relative roles in containing mosquito populations, entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) and malaria incidence. There were substantial gaps in coverage between households and individual persons, and 100% household coverage resulted in circa 50% coverage of the population. The results show that applications of ITNs could give rise to varying impacts on population-level metrics depending on values of parameters governing interactions of mosquitoes and treated nets at the individual level

  20. Predicting the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets on malaria transmission: the devil is in the detail

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novak Robert J

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs, including long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs, play a primary role in global campaigns to roll back malaria in tropical Africa. Effectiveness of treated nets depends on direct impacts on individual mosquitoes including killing and excite-repellency, which vary considerably among vector species due to variations in host-seeking behaviours. While monitoring and evaluation programmes of ITNs have focuses on morbidity and all-cause mortality in humans, local entomological context receives little attention. Without knowing the dynamics of local vector species and their responses to treated nets, it is difficult to predict clinical outcomes when ITN applications are scaled up across African continent. Sound model frameworks incorporating intricate interactions between mosquitoes and treated nets are needed to develop the predictive capacity for scale-up applications of ITNs. Methods An established agent-based model was extended to incorporate the direct outcomes, e.g. killing and avoidance, of individual mosquitoes exposing to ITNs in a hypothetical village setting with 50 houses and 90 aquatic habitats. Individual mosquitoes were tracked throughout the life cycle across the landscape. Four levels of coverage, i.e. 40, 60, 80 and 100%, were applied at the household level with treated houses having only one bed net. By using Latin hypercube sampling scheme, parameters governing killing, diverting and personal protection of net users were evaluated for their relative roles in containing mosquito populations, entomological inoculation rates (EIRs and malaria incidence. Results There were substantial gaps in coverage between households and individual persons, and 100% household coverage resulted in circa 50% coverage of the population. The results show that applications of ITNs could give rise to varying impacts on population-level metrics depending on values of parameters governing interactions of

  1. Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, D R; Paris, J F; Manguin, S; Harbach, R E; Woodruff, R; Rejmankova, E; Polanco, J; Wullschleger, B; Legters, L J

    1996-03-01

    Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

  2. Elevated plasma urokinase receptor predicts low birth weight in maternal malaria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostrowski, S R; Shulman, C E; Peshu, N

    2007-01-01

    -suPAR and gestational age were the only independent predictors of birth weight in multivariate linear regression adjusted for maternal-suPAR, HIV-1 infection, age, BMI, haemoglobin, peripheral parasitaemia, parity and gestational age; 1 ng/mL higher maternal-suPAR predicted -56 g (95% CI -100 to -12, P = 0.016) reduced...... birth weight. Cord-suPAR could not predict birth weight after adjusting for gestational age. Future studies are warranted to investigate whether the maternal suPAR level is increased earlier in pregnancy in women with active placental malaria infection and whether early maternal suPAR measurements can...... predict birth weight. If so, measurements of maternal suPAR early in pregnancy might then potentially identify women with increased needs for antenatal care and intervention....

  3. Bayesian geostatistical modelling of malaria and lymphatic filariasis infections in Uganda: predictors of risk and geographical patterns of co-endemicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedersen Erling M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Uganda, malaria and lymphatic filariasis (causative agent Wuchereria bancrofti are transmitted by the same vector species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and thus are likely to share common environmental risk factors and overlap in geographical space. In a comprehensive nationwide survey in 2000-2003 the geographical distribution of W. bancrofti was assessed by screening school-aged children for circulating filarial antigens (CFA. Concurrently, blood smears were examined for malaria parasites. In this study, the resultant malariological data are analysed for the first time and the CFA data re-analysed in order to identify risk factors, produce age-stratified prevalence maps for each infection, and to define the geographical patterns of Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti co-endemicity. Methods Logistic regression models were fitted separately for Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti within a Bayesian framework. Models contained covariates representing individual-level demographic effects, school-level environmental effects and location-based random effects. Several models were fitted assuming different random effects to allow for spatial structuring and to capture potential non-linearity in the malaria- and filariasis-environment relation. Model-based risk predictions at unobserved locations were obtained via Bayesian predictive distributions for the best fitting models. Maps of predicted hyper-endemic malaria and filariasis were furthermore overlaid in order to define areas of co-endemicity. Results Plasmodium sp. parasitaemia was found to be highly endemic in most of Uganda, with an overall population adjusted parasitaemia risk of 47.2% in the highest risk age-sex group (boys 5-9 years. High W. bancrofti prevalence was predicted for a much more confined area in northern Uganda, with an overall population adjusted infection risk of 7.2% in the highest risk age-group (14-19 year olds. Observed overall prevalence of individual co

  4. Quantifying the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria in 2007: a demographic study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Dellicour

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive and contemporary estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria are not currently available, particularly for endemic areas outside of Africa. We derived global estimates of the number of women who became pregnant in 2007 in areas with Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax transmission.A recently published map of the global limits of P. falciparum transmission and an updated map of the limits of P. vivax transmission were combined with gridded population data and growth rates to estimate total populations at risk of malaria in 2007. Country-specific demographic data from the United Nations on age, sex, and total fertility rates were used to estimate the number of women of child-bearing age and the annual rate of live births. Subregional estimates of the number of induced abortions and country-specific stillbirths rates were obtained from recently published reviews. The number of miscarriages was estimated from the number of live births and corrected for induced abortion rates. The number of clinically recognised pregnancies at risk was then calculated as the sum of the number of live births, induced abortions, spontaneous miscarriages, and stillbirths among the population at risk in 2007. In 2007, 125.2 million pregnancies occurred in areas with P. falciparum and/or P. vivax transmission resulting in 82.6 million live births. This included 77.4, 30.3, 13.1, and 4.3 million pregnancies in the countries falling under the World Health Organization (WHO regional offices for South-East-Asia (SEARO and the Western-Pacific (WPRO combined, Africa (AFRO, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean (EURO/EMRO, and the Americas (AMRO, respectively. Of 85.3 million pregnancies in areas with P. falciparum transmission, 54.7 million occurred in areas with stable transmission and 30.6 million in areas with unstable transmission (clinical incidence <1 per 10,000 population/year; 92.9 million occurred in areas with P. vivax transmission, 53

  5. Malaria risk in young male travellers but local transmission persists: a case-control study in low transmission Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jennifer L; Auala, Joyce; Haindongo, Erastus; Uusiku, Petrina; Gosling, Roly; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Mumbengegwi, Davis; Sturrock, Hugh J W

    2017-02-10

    A key component of malaria elimination campaigns is the identification and targeting of high risk populations. To characterize high risk populations in north central Namibia, a prospective health facility-based case-control study was conducted from December 2012-July 2014. Cases (n = 107) were all patients presenting to any of the 46 health clinics located in the study districts with a confirmed Plasmodium infection by multi-species rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Population controls (n = 679) for each district were RDT negative individuals residing within a household that was randomly selected from a census listing using a two-stage sampling procedure. Demographic, travel, socio-economic, behavioural, climate and vegetation data were also collected. Spatial patterns of malaria risk were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for malaria. Malaria risk was observed to cluster along the border with Angola, and travel patterns among cases were comparatively restricted to northern Namibia and Angola. Travel to Angola was associated with excessive risk of malaria in males (OR 43.58 95% CI 2.12-896), but there was no corresponding risk associated with travel by females. This is the first study to reveal that gender can modify the effect of travel on risk of malaria. Amongst non-travellers, male gender was also associated with a higher risk of malaria compared with females (OR 1.95 95% CI 1.25-3.04). Other strong risk factors were sleeping away from the household the previous night, lower socioeconomic status, living in an area with moderate vegetation around their house, experiencing moderate rainfall in the month prior to diagnosis and living young male travellers, who have a disproportionate risk of malaria in northern Namibia, to coordinate cross-border regional malaria prevention initiatives and to scale up coverage of prevention measures such as indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticide nets in high risk areas if

  6. Predicting Optimal Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine Regimens to Prevent Malaria During Pregnancy for Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Women Receiving Efavirenz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallender, Erika; Vucicevic, Katarina; Jagannathan, Prasanna; Huang, Liusheng; Natureeba, Paul; Kakuru, Abel; Muhindo, Mary; Nakalembe, Mirium; Havlir, Diane; Kamya, Moses; Aweeka, Francesca; Dorsey, Grant; Rosenthal, Philip J; Savic, Radojka M

    2018-03-05

    A monthly treatment course of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PQ) effectively prevents malaria during pregnancy. However, a drug-drug interaction pharmacokinetic (PK) study found that pregnant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women receiving efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) had markedly reduced piperaquine (PQ) exposure. This suggests the need for alternative DHA-PQ chemoprevention regimens in this population. Eighty-three HIV-infected pregnant women who received monthly DHA-PQ and efavirenz contributed longitudinal PK and corrected QT interval (QTc) (n = 25) data. Population PK and PK-QTc models for PQ were developed to consider the benefits (protective PQ coverage) and risks (QTc prolongation) of alternative DHA-PQ chemoprevention regimens. Protective PQ coverage was defined as maintaining a concentration >10 ng/mL for >95% of the chemoprevention period. PQ clearance was 4540 L/day. With monthly DHA-PQ (2880 mg PQ), 96% of women, respectively. All regimens were safe, with ≤2% of women predicted to have ≥30 msec QTc increase. For HIV-infected pregnant women receiving efavirenz, low daily DHA-PQ dosing was predicted to improve protection against parasitemia and reduce risk of toxicity compared to monthly dosing. NCT02282293. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. A simplified model for predicting malaria entomologic inoculation rates based on entomologic and parasitologic parameters relevant to control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killeen, G F; McKenzie, F E; Foy, B D; Schieffelin, C; Billingsley, P F; Beier, J C

    2000-05-01

    Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit malaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of their feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the parasite sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the product of 1) the potential of individual vectors to transmit malaria during their lifetime, 2) vector emergence rate relative to human population size, and 3) the infectiousness of the human population to vectors. Thus, impacts on more than one of these parameters will amplify each other's effects. The EIRs transmitted by the dominant vector species at four malaria-endemic sites from Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Nigeria were predicted using field measurements of these characteristics together with human biting rate and human reservoir infectiousness. This model predicted EIRs (+/- SD) that are 1.13 +/- 0.37 (range = 0.84-1.59) times those measured in the field. For these four sites, mosquito emergence rate and lifetime transmission potential were more important determinants of the EIR than human reservoir infectiousness. This model and the input parameters from the four sites allow the potential impacts of various control measures on malaria transmission intensity to be tested under a range of endemic conditions. The model has potential applications for the development and implementation of transmission control measures and for public health education.

  8. Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiwat Hélène

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Suriname was a high malaria risk country before the introduction of a new five-year malaria control program in 2005, the Medical Mission Malaria Programme (MM-MP. Malaria was endemic in the forested interior, where especially the stabile village communities were affected. Case description The interventions of the MM-MP included new strategies for prevention, vector control, case management, behavioral change communication (BCC/information, education and communication (IEC, and strengthening of the health system (surveillance, monitoring and evaluation and epidemic detection system. After a slow first year with non-satisfying scores for the performance indicators, the MM-MP truly engaged in its intervention activities in 2006 and kept its performance up until the end of 2009. A total of 69,994 long-lasting insecticide-treated nets were distributed and more than 15,000 nets re-impregnated. In high-risk areas, this was complemented with residual spraying of insecticides. Over 10,000 people were screened with active case detection in outbreak and high-risk areas. Additional notification points were established and the national health system was strengthened. Discussion and evaluation In the current paper, the MM-MP is evaluated both on account of the targets established within the programme and on account of its impact on the malaria situation in Suriname. Malaria vector populations, monitored in sentinel sites, collapsed after 2006 and concurrently the number of national malaria cases decreased from 8,618 in 2005 to 1,509 in 2009. Malaria transmission risk shifted from the stabile village communities to the mobile gold mining communities, especially those along the French Guiana border. Conclusions The novel strategies for malaria control introduced in Suriname within the MM-MP have led to a significant decrease in the national malaria burden. The challenge is to further reduce malaria using the available strategies as

  9. Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiwat, Hélène; Hardjopawiro, Loretta S; Takken, Willem; Villegas, Leopoldo

    2012-01-09

    Suriname was a high malaria risk country before the introduction of a new five-year malaria control program in 2005, the Medical Mission Malaria Programme (MM-MP). Malaria was endemic in the forested interior, where especially the stabile village communities were affected. The interventions of the MM-MP included new strategies for prevention, vector control, case management, behavioral change communication (BCC)/information, education and communication (IEC), and strengthening of the health system (surveillance, monitoring and evaluation and epidemic detection system). After a slow first year with non-satisfying scores for the performance indicators, the MM-MP truly engaged in its intervention activities in 2006 and kept its performance up until the end of 2009. A total of 69,994 long-lasting insecticide-treated nets were distributed and more than 15,000 nets re-impregnated. In high-risk areas, this was complemented with residual spraying of insecticides. Over 10,000 people were screened with active case detection in outbreak and high-risk areas. Additional notification points were established and the national health system was strengthened. In the current paper, the MM-MP is evaluated both on account of the targets established within the programme and on account of its impact on the malaria situation in Suriname. Malaria vector populations, monitored in sentinel sites, collapsed after 2006 and concurrently the number of national malaria cases decreased from 8,618 in 2005 to 1,509 in 2009. Malaria transmission risk shifted from the stabile village communities to the mobile gold mining communities, especially those along the French Guiana border. The novel strategies for malaria control introduced in Suriname within the MM-MP have led to a significant decrease in the national malaria burden. The challenge is to further reduce malaria using the available strategies as appropriate in the affected areas and populations. Elimination of malaria in the country will

  10. Malaria and Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Providers, Emergency Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us Malaria and Travelers for U.S. Residents Recommend on Facebook ... may be at risk for infection. Determine if malaria transmission occurs at the destinations Obtain a detailed ...

  11. Malaria and blood transfusion: major issues of blood safety in malaria-endemic countries and strategies for mitigating the risk of Plasmodium parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Saleh; Karunamoorthi, Kaliyaperumal

    2016-01-01

    Malaria inflicts humankind over centuries, and it remains as a major threat to both clinical medicine and public health worldwide. Though hemotherapy is a life-sustaining modality, it continues to be a possible source of disease transmission. Hence, hemovigilance is a matter of grave concern in the malaria-prone third-world countries. In order to pursue an effective research on hemovigilance, a comprehensive search has been conducted by using the premier academic-scientific databases, WHO documents, and English-language search engines. One hundred two appropriate articles were chosen for data extraction, with a particular reference to emerging pathogens transmitted through blood transfusion, specifically malaria. Blood donation screening is done through microscopic examination and immunological assays to improve the safety of blood products by detection major blood-borne pathogens, viz., HIV, HBV, HCV, syphilis, and malarial parasites. Transfusion therapy significantly dwindles the preventable morbidity and mortality attributed to various illnesses and diseases, particularly AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Examination of thick and thin blood smears are performed to detect positivity and to identify the Plasmodium species, respectively. However, all of these existing diagnostic tools have their own limitations in terms of sensitivity, specificity, cost-effectiveness, and lack of resources and skilled personnel. Globally, despite the mandate need of screening blood and its components according to the blood-establishment protocols, it is seldom practiced in the low-income/poverty-stricken settings. In addition, each and every single phase of transfusion chain carries sizable inherent risks from donors to recipients. Interestingly, opportunities also lie ahead to enhance the safety of blood-supply chain and patients. It can be achieved through sustainable blood-management strategies like (1) appropriate usage of precise diagnostic tools/techniques, (2) promoting

  12. Will malaria return to Europe under the greenhouse effect?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takken, W.; Wege, van de J.; Jetten, T.H.

    1995-01-01

    Malaria risk is determined by environmental and socio-economic factors. The predicted climate change under the greenhouse effect is likely to affect the epidemic potential of malaria due to a change in vector mosquito phenology and distribution. This effect was simulated using a computer model

  13. Status of insecticide resistance in high-risk malaria provinces in Afghanistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mushtaq; Buhler, Cyril; Pignatelli, Patricia; Ranson, Hilary; Nahzat, Sami Mohammad; Naseem, Mohammad; Sabawoon, Muhammad Farooq; Siddiqi, Abdul Majeed; Vink, Martijn

    2016-02-18

    Insecticide resistance seriously threatens the efficacy of vector control interventions in malaria endemic countries. In Afghanistan, the status of insecticide resistance is largely unknown while distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets has intensified in recent years. The main objective of this study was thus to measure the level of resistance to four classes of insecticides in provinces with medium to high risk of malaria transmission. Adult female mosquitoes were reared from larvae successively collected in the provinces of Nangarhar, Kunar, Badakhshan, Ghazni and Laghman from August to October 2014. WHO insecticide susceptibility tests were performed with DDT (4 %), malathion (5 %), bendiocarb (0.1 %), permethrin (0.75 %) and deltamethrin (0.05 %). In addition, the presence of kdr mutations was investigated in deltamethrin resistant and susceptible Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes collected in the eastern provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar. Analyses of mortality rates revealed emerging resistance against all four classes of insecticides in the provinces located east and south of the Hindu Kush mountain range. Resistance is observed in both An. stephensi and Anopheles culicifacies, the two dominant malaria vectors in these provinces. Anopheles superpictus in the northern province of Badakhshan shows a different pattern of susceptibility with suspected resistance observed only for deltamethrin and bendiocarb. Genotype analysis of knock down resistance (kdr) mutations at the voltage-gated channel gene from An. stephensi mosquitoes shows the presence of the known resistant alleles L1014S and L1014F. However, a significant fraction of deltamethrin-resistant mosquitoes were homozygous for the 1014L wild type allele indicating that other mechanisms must be considered to account for the observed pyrethroid resistance. This study confirms the importance of monitoring insecticide resistance for the development of an integrated vector management in Afghanistan. The

  14. Does radical cure of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum place adults in endemic areas at increased risk of recurrent symptomatic malaria?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Binka, Fred; Koram, Kwadwo; Anto, Francis; Adjuik, Martin; Nkrumah, Francis; Smith, Tom

    2002-07-01

    A cohort of 197 adults in Kassena-Nankana District (northern Ghana) was radically cured of malaria parasites to study subsequent incidence of malaria infection. During the following 20 weeks of the malaria transmission season, 49% experienced clinical attacks associated with Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia. In a group of 202 adults identically followed-up 1 year later without being treated, only 38% experienced such episodes (log-rank test for equality of survivor functions, P=0.035). Clinical attacks in radically cured individuals presented with lower parasite densities but more symptoms. Randomized studies are needed to test the hypothesis that radical cure of P. falciparum enhances the risk and severity of subsequent clinical malaria attacks.

  15. Risk factors for malaria and adverse birth outcomes in a prospective cohort of pregnant women resident in a high malaria transmission area of Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanisic, Danielle I; Moore, Kerryn A; Baiwog, Francesca; Ura, Alice; Clapham, Caroline; King, Christopher L; Siba, Peter M; Beeson, James G; Mueller, Ivo; Fowkes, Freya J; Rogerson, Stephen J

    2015-05-01

    Low birth weight (LBW), anaemia and malaria are common in Papua New Guinean women. To identify risk factors for LBW, anaemia and preterm delivery (PTD), pregnant women recruited into a cohort study in Madang, Papua New Guinea, were followed to delivery. Of 470 women enrolled, delivery data were available for 328 (69.7%). By microscopy, 34.4% (113/328) of women had malaria parasitaemia at enrolment and 12.5% (41/328) at delivery; at each time point, PCR detected sub-microscopic parasitaemia in substantially more. Most infections were with Plasmodium falciparum; the remainder being predominantly P. vivax. Anaemia and smoking were associated with lower birth weight, and LBW (16.7%; 51/305) and PTD (21.8%; 63/290) were common. Histopathologically diagnosed chronic placental malaria was associated with LBW (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.3; p=0.048) and PTD (aOR 4.2; p=0.01). Lack of maternal education predisposed to PTD. Sub-microscopic parasitaemia at delivery appeared to increase the risk of LBW. Of the genetic polymorphisms, Southeast Asian ovalocytosis, α(+)-thalassaemia and complement receptor 1 (CR1) deficiency, a CR1 heterozygous genotype was associated with decreased risk of anaemia and substantial but non-significant effects were noted in other comparisons. In coastal Papua New Guinea, malaria and anaemia are important causes of adverse pregnancy outcomes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

    The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

  17. Malaria transmission risk variations derived from different agricultural practices in an irrigated area of northern Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ijumba, J N; Mosha, F W; Lindsay, S W

    2002-03-01

    Malaria vector Anopheles and other mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) were monitored for 12 months during 1994-95 in villages of Lower Moshi irrigation area (37 degrees 20' E, 3 degrees 21' S; approximately 700 m a.s.l.) south of Mount Kilimanjaro in northern Tanzania. Adult mosquito populations were sampled fortnightly by five methods: human bait collection indoors (18.00-06.00 hours) and outdoors (18.00-24.00 hours); from daytime resting-sites indoors and outdoors; by CDC light-traps over sleepers. Anopheles densities and rates of survival, anthropophily and malaria infection were compared between three villages representing different agro-ecosystems: irrigated sugarcane plantation; smallholder rice irrigation scheme, and savannah with subsistence crops. Respective study villages were Mvuleni (population 2200), Chekereni (population 3200) and Kisangasangeni (population approximately/= 1000), at least 7 km apart. Anopheles arabiensis Patton was found to be the principal malaria vector throughout the study area, with An. funestus Giles sensu lato of secondary importance in the sugarcane and savannah villages. Irrigated sugarcane cultivation resulted in water pooling, but this did not produce more vectors. Anopheles arabiensis densities averaged four-fold higher in the ricefield village, although their human blood-index was significantly less (48%) than in the sugarcane (68%) or savannah (66%) villages, despite similar proportions of humans and cows (ratio 1:1.1-1.4) as the main hosts at all sites. Parous rates, duration of the gonotrophic cycle and survival rates of An. arabiensis were similar in villages of all three agro-ecosystems. The potential risk of malaria, based on measurements of vectorial capacity of An. arabiensis and An.funestus combined, was four-fold higher in the ricefield village than in the sugarcane or savannah villages nearby. However, the more realistic estimate of malaria risk, based on entomological inoculation rates, indicated that exposure to

  18. Housing Improvements and Malaria Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multi-Country Analysis of Survey Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy S Tusting

    2017-02-01

    : adjusted OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.97, p = 0.003; RDT: adjusted OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80-0.92, p < 0.001. This association was consistent regardless of ITN usage. As a comparison, the odds of malaria infection were 15% to 16% lower among ITN users versus non-users (microscopy: adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.79-0.90, p < 0.001; RDT: adjusted OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90, p < 0.001. The main limitation of this study is that residual confounding by household wealth of the observed association between housing quality and malaria prevalence is possible, since the wealth index may not have fully captured differences in socioeconomic position; however, the use of multiple national surveys offers the advantage of a large sample size and the elimination of many biases typically associated with pooling observational data.Housing quality is an important risk factor for malaria infection across the spectrum of malaria endemicity in SSA, with a strength of association between housing quality and malaria similar to that observed between ITN use and malaria. Improved housing should be considered a promising intervention for malaria control and elimination and long-term prevention of reintroduction.

  19. Lack of patient risk counselling and a broader provider training affect malaria control in remote Somalia Kenya border: Qualitative assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asgary, Ramin; Grigoryan, Zoya; Naderi, Ramesh; Allan, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Effectiveness of providing health education solely via mass media and the providers' targeted training in malaria control needs further exploration. During pre-epidemic season, we conducted a qualitative study of 40 providers and community leaders using focus groups, comprehensive semi-structured interviews and consultation observations. Interviews were transcribed, coded and analysed for major themes. Community leaders believe that they can acquire malaria from contaminated water, animal products, air or garbage. Consequently, they under-utilise bed nets and other protective measures due to perceived continued exposure to other potential malaria sources. Practitioners do not provide individualised health counselling and risk assessment to patients during sick visits, leading to a range of misconceptions about malaria based on limited knowledge from rumours and mass media, and a strong belief in the curative power of traditional medicine. Providers overdiagnose malaria clinically and underutilise available tests due to time constraints, and the lack of training and resources to correctly diagnose other illnesses. Subsequently, misdiagnoses lead them to question the efficacy of recommended treatments. Promoting counselling during clinical encounters to address patient misconception and change risky behaviour is warranted. Wider-ranging ongoing training could enable providers to properly diagnose and manage differential diagnoses to manage malaria better.

  20. Risk Factors In Malaria Mortality Among Children In Northern Ghana: A Case Study At The Tamale Teaching Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.R. Abdul-Aziz

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is hyper-endemic in Ghana, accounting for 44% of outpatient attendance, 13% of all hospital deaths, and 22% of mortality among children less than five years of age. The paper analyzed the risk factors of malaria mortality among children using a logistic regression model and also assessed the interaction effect between age and treatment of malaria patient. Secondary data was obtained from the inpatient morbidity and mortality returns register at Tamale Teaching Hospital, from 1st January 2008 to 31st December 2010. The results showed that risk factors such as referral status, age, distance, treatment and length of stay on admission were important predictors of malaria mortality. However, it was found that the risk factors; sex and season were not good predictors of malaria mortality. Finally, the interaction effect between age and treatment was found to be significant. It was recommended, among other things, that the government should provide more assessable roads and expand ambulance services to the various Districts/communities in and around the Tamale metropolis to facilitate referral cases.

  1. Predicting Malaria occurrence in Southwest and North central Nigeria using Meteorological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinbobola, A.; Omotosho, J. Bayo

    2013-09-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem especially in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to changing weather and climate. This study explored the impact of weather and climate and its variability on the occurrence and transmission of malaria in Akure, the tropical rain forest area of southwest and Kaduna, in the savanna area of Nigeria. We investigate this supposition by looking at the relationship between rainfall, relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature, and malaria at the two stations. This study uses monthly data of 7 years (2001-2007) for both meteorological data and record of reported cases of malaria infection. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Of all the models tested, the ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model fits the malaria incidence data best for Akure and Kaduna according to normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and goodness-of-fit criteria. Humidity and rainfall have almost the same trend of association in all the stations while maximum temperature share the same negative association at southwestern stations and positive in the northern station. Rainfall and humidity have a positive association with malaria incidence at lag of 1 month. In all, we found that minimum temperature is not a limiting factor for malaria transmission in Akure but otherwise in the other stations.

  2. Using Respondent Driven Sampling to Identify Malaria Risks and Occupational Networks among Migrant Workers in Ranong, Thailand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piyaporn Wangroongsarb

    Full Text Available Ranong Province in southern Thailand is one of the primary entry points for migrants entering Thailand from Myanmar, and borders Kawthaung Township in Myanmar where artemisinin resistance in malaria parasites has been detected. Areas of high population movement could increase the risk of spread of artemisinin resistance in this region and beyond.A respondent-driven sampling (RDS methodology was used to compare migrant populations coming from Myanmar in urban (Site 1 vs. rural (Site 2 settings in Ranong, Thailand. The RDS methodology collected information on knowledge, attitudes, and practices for malaria, travel and occupational histories, as well as social network size and structure. Individuals enrolled were screened for malaria by microscopy, Real Time-PCR, and serology.A total of 619 participants were recruited in Ranong City and 623 participants in Kraburi, a rural sub-district. By PCR, a total of 14 (1.1% samples were positive (2 P. falciparum in Site 1; 10 P. vivax, 1 Pf, and 1 P. malariae in Site 2. PCR analysis demonstrated an overall weighted prevalence of 0.5% (95% CI, 0-1.3% in the urban site and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.5-1.7% in the rural site for all parasite species. PCR positivity did not correlate with serological positivity; however, as expected there was a strong association between antibody prevalence and both age and exposure. Access to long-lasting insecticidal treated nets remains low despite relatively high reported traditional net use among these populations.The low malaria prevalence, relatively smaller networks among migrants in rural settings, and limited frequency of travel to and from other areas of malaria transmission in Myanmar, suggest that the risk for the spread of artemisinin resistance from this area may be limited in these networks currently but may have implications for regional malaria elimination efforts.

  3. Population Movement as a Risk Factor for Malaria Infection in High-Altitude Villages of Tahtay-Maychew District, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haile, Mebrahtom; Lemma, Hailemariam; Weldu, Yemane

    2017-09-01

    Key goal and targets of the Ethiopia National Malaria Control Program are to achieve malaria elimination within specific geographical areas with historically low malaria transmission and to reach near-zero malaria transmission in the remaining malarious areas by 2020. However, back and forth population movement between high-transmission and low-transmission area imposes challenge on the success of national malaria control programs. Therefore, examining the effect of human movement and identification of at-risk populations is crucial in an elimination setting. A matched case-control study was conducted among 520 study participants at a community level in low malaria transmission settings in northern Ethiopia. Study participants who received a malaria test were interviewed regarding their recent travel history. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to determine if the reported travel was related to malaria infection. Younger age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73, 5.89) and travel in the previous month (AOR = 11.40, 95% CI: 6.91, 18.82) were statistically significant risk factors for malaria infection. Other statistically significant factors, including lower educational level (AOR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86) and nonagricultural in occupation (AOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.94), were also found as risk factors for malaria infection. Generally, travel history was found to be a strong predictor for malaria acquisition in the high-altitude villages. Therefore, besides the existing efforts in endemic areas, targeting those who frequently travel to malarious areas is crucial to reduce malaria infection risks and possibility of local transmissions in high-altitude areas of northern Ethiopia.

  4. Urban and architectural risk factors for malaria in indigenous Amazonian settlements in Brazil: a typological analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leandro-Reguillo, Patricia; Thomson-Luque, Richard; Monteiro, Wuelton M; de Lacerda, Marcus V G

    2015-07-22

    In the Amazon, m alaria is highly endemic in indigenous populations, which are often considered one of the last barriers to malaria elimination due to geographic isolation. Although the improvement of housing conditions is a good strategy towards the control and prevention of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, this preventive practice has been barely undertaken in Latin America. An analysis of the architectural and urban features of indigenous Amazonian populations is essential to define and adapt these vector control measures. A total of 32 villages of 29 different ethnicities were studied and mapped by reviewing literature and visual information, and using a geographic information system. The most important architectural and urban characteristics influencing malaria were analysed according to the following categories: number of households and dimensions, supporting area, openings, materials, lifespan and location. Housing typologies found were classified within each of these variables. The results of this typological analysis included an easy-to-handle working template and revealing of features that benefit or hamper the presence of malaria vectors in Amerindians communities. Among risk factors, presence of open eaves, permeable walls, open-side constructions, large number of sleepers indoors, temporary-ephemeral houses, linear villages along stream banks, houseboats villages, poor urban drainage and villages surrounded by anthropogenic environments were highlighted. Indigenous settlements very permissive for anophelines were identified in ethnic groups, such as the Yanomami, Palikur, Paumari, Waimiri-Atroari and Wajãpi. Positive features were also recognized, including opaque and closed houses, large radial villages on bare soil, highly elevated stilted houses and the fire indoors, found among the Yawalapiti, Ashaninka, and Gavião-Parkatejê tribes. However, as Amazonian indigenous settlement typologies vary greatly even among villages of the same ethnic

  5. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniël B van Schalkwijk

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to investigate whether lipoprotein metabolism indicators can improve cardiovascular risk prediction and therapy management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated lipoprotein metabolism indicators for 1981 subjects (145 cases, 1836 controls from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort in which NMR lipoprotein profiles were measured. We applied a statistical learning algorithm using a support vector machine to select conventional risk factors and lipoprotein metabolism indicators that contributed to predicting risk for general cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction was quantified by the change in the Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve (ΔAUC and by risk reclassification (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI. Two VLDL lipoprotein metabolism indicators (VLDLE and VLDLH improved cardiovascular risk prediction. We added these indicators to a multivariate model with the best performing conventional risk markers. Our method significantly improved both CVD prediction and risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Two calculated VLDL metabolism indicators significantly improved cardiovascular risk prediction. These indicators may help to reduce prescription of unnecessary cholesterol-lowering medication, reducing costs and possible side-effects. For clinical application, further validation is required.

  6. Applications of Bayesian approach in modelling risk of malaria-related hospital mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simbeye Jupiter S

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

  7. IgG responses to Anopheles gambiae salivary antigen gSG6 detect variation in exposure to malaria vectors and disease risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stone, Will; Bousema, Teun; Jones, Sophie

    2012-01-01

    as the basis of an immuno-assay determining exposure to Afrotropical malaria vectors. In the present study, IgG responses to gSG6 and 6 malaria antigens (CSP, AMA-1, MSP-1, MSP-3, GLURP R1, and GLURP R2) were compared to Anopheles exposure and malaria incidence in a cohort of children from Korogwe district...... with subsequent malaria incidence (test for trend p¿=¿0.004), comparable to malaria antigens MSP-1 and GLURP R2. Our results show that the gSG6 assay is sensitive to micro-epidemiological variations in exposure to Anopheles mosquitoes, and provides a correlate of malaria risk that is unrelated to immune...

  8. Prevalence, features and risk factors for malaria co-infections amongst visceral leishmaniasis patients from Amudat Hospital, Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika van den Bogaart

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY: Due to geographic overlap of malaria and visceral leishmaniasis (VL, co-infections may exist but have been poorly investigated. To describe prevalence, features and risk factors for VL-malaria co-infections, a case-control analysis was conducted on data collected at Amudat Hospital, Uganda (2000-2006 by Médecins sans Frontières. Cases were identified as patients with laboratory-confirmed VL and malaria at hospital admission or during hospitalization; controls were VL patients with negative malaria smears. A logistic regression analysis was performed to study the association between patients' characteristics and the occurrence of the co-infection. RESULTS: Of 2414 patients with confirmed VL, 450 (19% were positively diagnosed with concomitant malaria. Most co-infected patients were males, residing in Kenya (69%. While young age was identified by multivariate analysis as a risk factor for concurrent VL and malaria, particularly the age groups 0-4 (odds ratio (OR: 2.44; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.52-3.92 and 5-9 years (OR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.45-3-45, mild (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.32-0.88 and moderate (OR: 0.45; 95% CI: 0.27-0.77 anemia negatively correlated with the co-morbidity. VL patients harboring skin infections were nearly three times less likely to have the co-infection (OR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.17-0.72, as highlighted by the multivariate model. Anorexia was slightly more frequent among co-infected patients (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 0.96-3.03. The in-hospital case-fatality rate did not significantly differ between cases and controls, being 2.7% and 3.1% respectively (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.46-1.63. CONCLUSIONS: Concurrent malaria represents a common condition among young VL patients living in the Pokot region of Kenya and Uganda. Although these co-morbidities did not result in a poorer prognosis, possibly due to early detection of malaria, a positive trend towards more severe symptoms was identified, indicating that routine

  9. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

  18. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Malaria Prevention, Mefloquine Neurotoxicity, Neuropsychiatric Illness, and Risk-Benefit Analysis in the Australian Defence Force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart McCarthy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Australian Defence Force (ADF has used mefloquine for malaria chemoprophylaxis since 1990. Mefloquine has been found to be a plausible cause of a chronic central nervous system toxicity syndrome and a confounding factor in the diagnosis of existing neuropsychiatric illnesses prevalent in the ADF such as posttraumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury. Overall health risks appear to have been mitigated by restricting the drug’s use; however serious risks were realised when significant numbers of ADF personnel were subjected to clinical trials involving the drug. The full extent of the exposure, health impacts for affected individuals, and consequences for ADF health management including mental health are not yet known, but mefloquine may have caused or aggravated neuropsychiatric illness in large numbers of patients who were subsequently misdiagnosed and mistreated or otherwise failed to receive proper care. Findings in relation to chronic mefloquine neurotoxicity were foreseeable, but this eventuality appears not to have been considered during risk-benefit analyses. Thorough analysis by the ADF would have identified this long-term risk as well as other qualitative risk factors. Historical exposure of ADF personnel to mefloquine neurotoxicity now also necessitates ongoing risk monitoring and management in the overall context of broader health policies.

  2. Dynamics of socioeconomic risk factors for neglected tropical diseases and malaria in an armed conflict.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Fürst

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Armed conflict and war are among the leading causes of disability and premature death, and there is a growing share of civilians killed or injured during armed conflicts. A major part of the civilian suffering stems from indirect effects or collateral impact such as changing risk profiles for infectious diseases. We focused on rural communities in the western part of Côte d'Ivoire, where fighting took place during the Ivorian civil war in 2002/2003, and assessed the dynamics of socioeconomic risk factors for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs and malaria. METHODOLOGY: The same standardized and pre-tested questionnaires were administered to the heads of 182 randomly selected households in 25 villages in the region of Man, western Côte d'Ivoire, shortly before and after the 2002/2003 armed conflict. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: There was no difference in crowding as measured by the number of individuals per sleeping room, but the inadequate sanitation infrastructure prior to the conflict further worsened, and the availability and use of protective measures against mosquito bites and accessibility to health care infrastructure deteriorated. Although the direct causal chain between these findings and the conflict are incomplete, partially explained by the very nature of working in conflict areas, the timing and procedures of the survey, other sources and anecdotal evidence point toward a relationship between an increased risk of suffering from NTDs and malaria and armed conflict. CONCLUSION: New research is needed to deepen our understanding of the often diffuse and neglected indirect effects of armed conflict and war, which may be worse than the more obvious, direct effects.

  3. Cardiovascular risk prediction in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dis, van S.J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In clinical practice, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk prediction functions and charts are used to identify persons at high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), who are considered eligible for drug treatment of elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol. These

  4. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  5. Incidence and risk factors for Malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea in children under 5 in UNHCR refugee camps: A retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hershey Christine L

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR refugee camps are located predominantly in rural areas of Africa and Asia in protracted or post-emergency contexts. Recognizing the importance of malaria, pneumonia and diarrheal diseases as major causes of child morbidity and mortality in refugee camps, we analyzed data from the UNHCR Health Information System (HIS to estimate incidence and risk factors for these diseases in refugee children younger than five years of age. Methods Data from 90 UNHCR camps in 16 countries, including morbidity, mortality, health services and refugee health status, were obtained from the UNHCR HIS for the period January 2006 to February 2010. Monthly camp-level data were aggregated to yearly estimates for analysis and stratified by location in Africa (including Yemen or Asia. Poisson regression models with random effects were constructed to identify factors associated with malaria, pneumonia and diarrheal diseases. Spatial patterns in the incidence of malaria, pneumonia and diarrheal diseases were mapped to identify regional heterogeneities. Results Malaria and pneumonia were the two most common causes of mortality, with confirmed malaria and pneumonia each accounting for 20% of child deaths. Suspected and confirmed malaria accounted for 23% of child morbidity and pneumonia accounted for 17% of child morbidity. Diarrheal diseases were the cause of 7% of deaths and 10% of morbidity in children under five. Mean under-five incidence rates across all refugee camps by region were: malaria [Africa 84.7 cases/1000 U5 population/month (95% CI 67.5-102.0, Asia 2.2/1000/month (95% CI 1.4-3.0]; pneumonia [Africa 59.2/1000/month (95% CI 49.8-68.7, Asia 254.5/1000/month (95% CI 207.1-301.8]; and diarrheal disease [Africa 35.5/1000/month (95% CI 28.7-42.4, Asia 69.2/1000/month (95% CI 61.0-77.5]. Measles was infrequent and accounted for a small proportion of child morbidity (503 cases, Conclusions As in

  6. Mapping malaria risk using geographic information systems and remote sensing: The case of Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minale, Amare Sewnet; Alemu, Kalkidan

    2018-05-07

    The main objective of this study was to develop a malaria risk map for Bahir Dar City, Amhara, which is situated south of Lake Tana on the Ethiopian plateau. Rainfall, temperature, altitude, slope and land use/land cover (LULC), as well as proximity measures to lake, river and health facilities, were investigated using remote sensing and geographical information systems. The LULC variable was derived from a 2012 SPOT satellite image by supervised classification, while 30-m spatial resolution measurements of altitude and slope came from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Metrological data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency, Bahir Dar branch. These separate datasets, represented as layers in the computer, were combined using weighted, multi-criteria evaluations. The outcome shows that rainfall, temperature, slope, elevation, distance from the lake and distance from the river influenced the malaria hazard the study area by 35%, 15%, 10%, 7%, 5% and 3%, respectively, resulting in a map showing five areas with different levels of malaria hazard: very high (11.2%); high (14.5%); moderate (63.3%); low (6%); and none (5%). The malaria risk map, based on this hazard map plus additional information on proximity to health facilities and current LULC conditions, shows that Bahir Dar City has areas with very high (15%); high (65%); moderate (8%); and low (5%) levels of malaria risk, with only 2% of the land completely riskfree. Such risk maps are essential for planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluating disease control as well as for contemplating prevention and elimination of epidemiological hazards from endemic areas.

  7. Isotope signatures in winter moulted feathers predict malaria prevalence in a breeding avian host.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yohannes, Elizabeth; Hansson, Bengt; Lee, Raymond W; Waldenström, Jonas; Westerdahl, Helena; Akesson, Mikael; Hasselquist, Dennis; Bensch, Staffan

    2008-11-01

    It is widely accepted that animal distribution and migration strategy might have co-evolved in relation to selection pressures exerted by parasites. Here, we first determined the prevalence and types of malaria blood parasites in a breeding population of great reed warblers Acrocephalus arundinaceus using PCR. Secondly, we tested for differences in individual feather stable isotope signatures (delta (13)C, delta (15)N, deltaD and delta (34)S) to investigate whether malaria infected and non-infected birds had occupied different areas in winter. We show that birds moulting in Afro-tropical habitats with significantly higher delta (13)C and delta (15)N but lower deltaD and delta(34)S values were more frequently infected with malaria parasites. Based on established patterns of isotopic distributions, our results indicate that moulting sites with higher incidence of malaria are generally drier and situated further to the north in West Africa than sites with lower incidence of malaria. Our findings are pertinent to the general hypothesis that animal distribution and particularly avian migration strategy might evolve in response to selection pressures exerted by parasites at different geographic scales. Tradeoffs between investment in energy demanding life history traits (e.g. migration and winter moult) and immune function are suggested to contribute to the particular choice of habitat during migration and at wintering sites.

  8. A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Love Darkoh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effects of climatic variables, particularly, rainfall and temperature, on malaria incidence using time series analysis. Our preliminary analysis revealed that malaria incidence in the study area decreased at about 0.35% annually. Also, the month of November recorded approximately 21% more malaria cases than the other months while September had a decreased effect of about 14%. The forecast model developed for this investigation indicated that mean minimum (P=0.01928 and maximum (P=0.00321 monthly temperatures lagged at three months were significant predictors of malaria incidence while rainfall was not. Diagnostic tests using Ljung-Box and ARCH-LM tests revealed that the model developed was adequate for forecasting. Forecast values for 2016 to 2020 generated by our model suggest a possible future decline in malaria incidence. This goes to suggest that intervention strategies put in place by some nongovernmental and governmental agencies to combat the disease are effective and thus should be encouraged and routinely monitored to yield more desirable outcomes.

  9. Is there a risk of suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamil A Braima

    Full Text Available The suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia's most developed and populous state still remains a concern for public health in this region. Despite much successful control efforts directed at its reduction, sporadic cases, mostly brought in by foreigners have continued to occur. In addition, cases of simian malaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi, some with fatal outcome have caused grave concern to health workers. The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of local malaria transmission in suburban regions of Selangor, which are adjacent to secondary rainforests.A malaria survey spanning 7 years (2006 - 2012 was conducted in Selangor. A total of 1623 laboratory confirmed malaria cases were reported from Selangor's nine districts. While 72.6% of these cases (1178/1623 were attributed to imported malaria (cases originating from other countries, 25.5% (414/1623 were local cases and 1.9% (31/1623 were considered as relapse and unclassified cases combined. In this study, the most prevalent infection was P. vivax (1239 cases, prevalence 76.3% followed by P. falciparum (211, 13.0%, P. knowlesi (75, 4.6%, P. malariae (71, 4.4% and P. ovale (1, 0.06%. Mixed infections comprising of P. vivax and P. falciparum were confirmed (26, 1.6%. Entomological surveys targeting the residences of malaria patients' showed that the most commonly trapped Anopheles species was An. maculatus. No oocysts or sporozoites were found in the An. maculatus collected. Nevertheless, the possibility of An. maculatus being the malaria vector in the investigated locations was high due to its persistent occurrence in these areas.Malaria cases reported in this study were mostly imported cases. However the co-existence of local cases and potential Plasmodium spp. vectors should be cause for concern. The results of this survey reflect the need of maintaining closely monitored malaria control programs and continuous extensive malaria surveillance in Peninsula

  10. Is there a risk of suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braima, Kamil A; Sum, Jia-Siang; Ghazali, Amir-Ridhwan M; Muslimin, Mustakiza; Jeffery, John; Lee, Wenn-Chyau; Shaker, Mohammed R; Elamin, Alaa-Eldeen M; Jamaiah, Ibrahim; Lau, Yee-Ling; Rohela, Mahmud; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Sitam, Frankie; Mohd-Noh, Rosnida; Abdul-Aziz, Noraishah M

    2013-01-01

    The suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia's most developed and populous state still remains a concern for public health in this region. Despite much successful control efforts directed at its reduction, sporadic cases, mostly brought in by foreigners have continued to occur. In addition, cases of simian malaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi, some with fatal outcome have caused grave concern to health workers. The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of local malaria transmission in suburban regions of Selangor, which are adjacent to secondary rainforests. A malaria survey spanning 7 years (2006 - 2012) was conducted in Selangor. A total of 1623 laboratory confirmed malaria cases were reported from Selangor's nine districts. While 72.6% of these cases (1178/1623) were attributed to imported malaria (cases originating from other countries), 25.5% (414/1623) were local cases and 1.9% (31/1623) were considered as relapse and unclassified cases combined. In this study, the most prevalent infection was P. vivax (1239 cases, prevalence 76.3%) followed by P. falciparum (211, 13.0%), P. knowlesi (75, 4.6%), P. malariae (71, 4.4%) and P. ovale (1, 0.06%). Mixed infections comprising of P. vivax and P. falciparum were confirmed (26, 1.6%). Entomological surveys targeting the residences of malaria patients' showed that the most commonly trapped Anopheles species was An. maculatus. No oocysts or sporozoites were found in the An. maculatus collected. Nevertheless, the possibility of An. maculatus being the malaria vector in the investigated locations was high due to its persistent occurrence in these areas. Malaria cases reported in this study were mostly imported cases. However the co-existence of local cases and potential Plasmodium spp. vectors should be cause for concern. The results of this survey reflect the need of maintaining closely monitored malaria control programs and continuous extensive malaria surveillance in Peninsula Malaysia.

  11. Mapping malaria risk using environmental and anthropic variables Mapeamento do risco de malaria utilizando variáveis ambientais e antrópicas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Edilberto Rincón-Romero

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite much research in the identification of areas with malaria, it is urgent to further investigate mapping techniques to achieve better approaches in strategies to prevent, mitigate, and eradicate the mosquito and the illness eventually. By using spatial distributed modeling techniques with Geographical Information Systems (GIS, the study proposes methodology to map malaria risk zoning for the municipality of Buenaventura in Colombia. The model proposed by Craig et al.¹ using climatic information was adapted to the conditions of the study area regarding scale and spatial resolution. Geomorphologic and anthropic variables were added to improve spatial allocation of areas with higher risk of contracting the illness, refining zoning. Then, they were contrasted with the locations reported by health entities², taking into account spatial distribution. The comparison of results shows a decrease in the area obtained initially using the Craig et al. model¹ (1999, from 5,422.4 km² (89.1% of the municipality's territory to 624.3km² (approximately 10% of the municipality's area, yielding a total reduction of 78.8% when environmental and anthropic variables were included in the model. Data show that of the 9,863 cases reported during 2001 to 2005 for 20 selected towns as basis for the amount of surveyed malaria cases², 1,132 were located in the very high-risk areas, 7,662 were in the areas of moderate risk, and 1,066 cases in low-risk areas, showing that 89% of the cases reported fell into the areas with higher risk for malaria.A pesar de muchas investigaciones en la identificación de las zonas con presencia de malaria, es urgente profundizar las técnicas de su mapeo para lograr mejores aproximaciones, para ayudar a focalizar los esfuerzos y recursos en prevención, mitigación y estrategias de erradicación del mosquito y eventualmente de la enfermedad. Usando modelación espacial distribuida con herramientas de Sistemas de Información Geogr

  12. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karema Corine

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m, a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted early in 2010. Methods A total of 749 children below five years of age were examined including 545 randomly selected from 24 villages, 103 attending the health centre in charge, and 101 at the referral district hospital. Clinical, parasitological, haematological, and socio-economic data were collected. Results Plasmodium falciparum infection (mean multiplicity, 2.08 was identified by microscopy and PCR in 11.7% and 16.7%, respectively; 5.5% of the children had malaria. PCR-based P. falciparum prevalence ranged between 0 and 38.5% in the villages, and was 21.4% in the health centre, and 14.9% in the hospital. Independent predictors of infection included increasing age, low mid-upper arm circumference, absence of several household assets, reported recent intake of artemether-lumefantrine, and chloroquine in plasma, measured by ELISA. Self-reported bed net use (58% reduced infection only in univariate analysis. In the communities, most infections were seemingly asymptomatic but anaemia was observed in 82% and 28% of children with and without parasitaemia, respectively, the effect increasing with parasite density, and significant also for submicroscopic infections. Conclusions Plasmodium falciparum infection in the highlands surrounding Butare, Rwanda, is seen in one out of six children under five years of age. The abundance of seemingly asymptomatic infections in the community forms a reservoir for transmission in this epidemic-prone area. Risk factors suggestive of low socio-economic status and insufficient effectiveness of self-reported bed net use refer to areas of improvable intervention.

  13. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gahutu, Jean-Bosco; Steininger, Christian; Shyirambere, Cyprien; Zeile, Irene; Cwinya-Ay, Neniling; Danquah, Ina; Larsen, Christoph H; Eggelte, Teunis A; Uwimana, Aline; Karema, Corine; Musemakweri, Andre; Harms, Gundel; Mockenhaupt, Frank P

    2011-05-18

    Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m), a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted early in 2010. A total of 749 children below five years of age were examined including 545 randomly selected from 24 villages, 103 attending the health centre in charge, and 101 at the referral district hospital. Clinical, parasitological, haematological, and socio-economic data were collected. Plasmodium falciparum infection (mean multiplicity, 2.08) was identified by microscopy and PCR in 11.7% and 16.7%, respectively; 5.5% of the children had malaria. PCR-based P. falciparum prevalence ranged between 0 and 38.5% in the villages, and was 21.4% in the health centre, and 14.9% in the hospital. Independent predictors of infection included increasing age, low mid-upper arm circumference, absence of several household assets, reported recent intake of artemether-lumefantrine, and chloroquine in plasma, measured by ELISA. Self-reported bed net use (58%) reduced infection only in univariate analysis. In the communities, most infections were seemingly asymptomatic but anaemia was observed in 82% and 28% of children with and without parasitaemia, respectively, the effect increasing with parasite density, and significant also for submicroscopic infections. Plasmodium falciparum infection in the highlands surrounding Butare, Rwanda, is seen in one out of six children under five years of age. The abundance of seemingly asymptomatic infections in the community forms a reservoir for transmission in this epidemic-prone area. Risk factors suggestive of low socio-economic status and insufficient effectiveness of self-reported bed net use refer to areas of improvable intervention.

  14. Malaria parasite carriage and risk determinants in a rural population: a malariometric survey in Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kateera, Fredrick; Mens, Petra F.; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Ingabire, Chantal M.; Muragijemariya, Liberata; Karinda, Parfait; Grobusch, Martin P.; Mutesa, Leon; van Vugt, Michèle

    2015-01-01

    Based on routine health facility case data, Rwanda has achieved a significant malaria burden reduction in the past ten years. However, community-based malaria parasitaemia burden and reasons for continued residual infections, despite a high coverage of control interventions, have yet to be

  15. Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    development (Wang et al., 2008), and chronic diseases. (Hughson et al. ... malaria, HIV, and syphilis also affect birth outcomes. (Watson-Jones .... are the subsistence and cash crops. Small-scale .... phenomenon which has been reported in other areas. (Sone et al. .... T.K. & Brabin, B.J. (2004) Impact of El Nino and malaria ...

  16. Application of geographically-weighted regression analysis to assess risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiath, Mansour M; Cisse, Badara; Ndiaye, Jean Louis; Gomis, Jules F; Bathiery, Ousmane; Dia, Anta Tal; Gaye, Oumar; Faye, Babacar

    2015-11-18

    of the district where hotspots are more accurate while low values are mainly found in the centre and in the north. Geographically-weighted regression and OLS showed important risks factors of malaria hotspots in Keur Soce. The outputs of such models can be a useful tool to understand occurrence of malaria hotspots in Senegal. An understanding of geographical variation and determination of the core areas of the disease may provide an explanation regarding possible proximal and distal contributors to malaria elimination in Senegal.

  17. Malaria and Tropical Travel

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2008-05-15

    Malaria is a serious mosquito-borne disease that can lead to death. This podcast discusses malaria risk when traveling to tropical areas, as well as how to protect yourself and your family from malaria infection.  Created: 5/15/2008 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 5/29/2008.

  18. Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maquins Odhiambo Sewe

    Full Text Available Malaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI, day Land Surface Temperature (LST and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya.The lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags.This study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

  19. Challenges of DHS and MIS to capture the entire pattern of malaria parasite risk and intervention effects in countries with different ecological zones: the case of Cameroon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoda Tonye, Salomon G; Kouambeng, Celestin; Wounang, Romain; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2018-04-06

    In 2011, the demographic and health survey (DHS) in Cameroon was combined with the multiple indicator cluster survey. Malaria parasitological data were collected, but the survey period did not overlap with the high malaria transmission season. A malaria indicator survey (MIS) was also conducted during the same year, within the malaria peak transmission season. This study compares estimates of the geographical distribution of malaria parasite risk and of the effects of interventions obtained from the DHS and MIS survey data. Bayesian geostatistical models were applied on DHS and MIS data to obtain georeferenced estimates of the malaria parasite prevalence and to assess the effects of interventions. Climatic predictors were retrieved from satellite sources. Geostatistical variable selection was used to identify the most important climatic predictors and indicators of malaria interventions. The overall observed malaria parasite risk among children was 33 and 30% in the DHS and MIS data, respectively. Both datasets identified the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the altitude as important predictors of the geographical distribution of the disease. However, MIS selected additional climatic factors as important disease predictors. The magnitude of the estimated malaria parasite risk at national level was similar in both surveys. Nevertheless, DHS estimates lower risk in the North and Coastal areas. MIS did not find any important intervention effects, although DHS revealed that the proportion of population with an insecticide-treated nets access in their household was statistically important. An important negative relationship between malaria parasitaemia and socioeconomic factors, such as the level of mother's education, place of residence and the household welfare were captured by both surveys. Timing of the malaria survey influences estimates of the geographical distribution of disease risk, especially in settings with seasonal transmission. In countries with

  20. Malaria and Agriculture in Kenya

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Nancy Minogue

    die every day from malaria, conventional efforts to control the disease have not worked. Malaria parasites are .... and other animals. Mosquito nets. Provide insecticide-treated bednets to groups at high risk for malaria, namely young children and pregnant women, through partnerships with nongovernmental organizations ...

  1. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Finding malaria hot-spots in northern Angola: the role of individual, household and environmental factors within a meso-endemic area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magalhães Ricardo J

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identifying and targeting hyper-endemic communities within meso-endemic areas constitutes an important challenge in malaria control in endemic countries such like Angola. Recent national and global predictive maps of malaria allow the identification and quantification of the population at risk of malaria infection in Angola, but their small-scale accuracy is surrounded by large uncertainties. To observe the need to develop higher resolution malaria endemicity maps a predictive risk map of malaria infection for the municipality of Dande (a malaria endemic area in Northern Angola was developed and compared to existing national and global maps, the role of individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria endemicity was quantified and the spatial variation in the number of children at-risk of malaria was estimated. Methods Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to predict small-scale spatial variation using data collected during a parasitological survey conducted from May to August 2010. Maps of the posterior distributions of predicted prevalence were constructed in a geographical information system. Results Malaria infection was significantly associated with maternal malaria awareness, households with canvas roofing, distance to health care centre and distance to rivers. The predictive map showed remarkable spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk across the Dande municipality in contrast to previous national and global spatial risk models; large high-risk areas of malaria infection (prevalence >50% were found in the northern and most eastern areas of the municipality, in line with the observed prevalence. Conclusions There is remarkable spatial heterogeneity of malaria burden which previous national and global spatial modelling studies failed to identify suggesting that the identification of malaria hot-spots within seemingly mesoendemic areas may require the generation of high resolution malaria maps

  3. Finding malaria hot-spots in northern Angola: the role of individual, household and environmental factors within a meso-endemic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magalhães, Ricardo J Soares; Langa, Antonio; Sousa-Figueiredo, José Carlos; Clements, Archie C A; Nery, Susana Vaz

    2012-11-22

    Identifying and targeting hyper-endemic communities within meso-endemic areas constitutes an important challenge in malaria control in endemic countries such like Angola. Recent national and global predictive maps of malaria allow the identification and quantification of the population at risk of malaria infection in Angola, but their small-scale accuracy is surrounded by large uncertainties. To observe the need to develop higher resolution malaria endemicity maps a predictive risk map of malaria infection for the municipality of Dande (a malaria endemic area in Northern Angola) was developed and compared to existing national and global maps, the role of individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria endemicity was quantified and the spatial variation in the number of children at-risk of malaria was estimated. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to predict small-scale spatial variation using data collected during a parasitological survey conducted from May to August 2010. Maps of the posterior distributions of predicted prevalence were constructed in a geographical information system. Malaria infection was significantly associated with maternal malaria awareness, households with canvas roofing, distance to health care centre and distance to rivers. The predictive map showed remarkable spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk across the Dande municipality in contrast to previous national and global spatial risk models; large high-risk areas of malaria infection (prevalence >50%) were found in the northern and most eastern areas of the municipality, in line with the observed prevalence. There is remarkable spatial heterogeneity of malaria burden which previous national and global spatial modelling studies failed to identify suggesting that the identification of malaria hot-spots within seemingly mesoendemic areas may require the generation of high resolution malaria maps. Individual, household and hydrological factors play an important role

  4. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  5. About Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Emergency Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us About Malaria Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Malaria is ... from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. About Malaria Topics FAQs Frequently Asked Question, Incubation period, uncomplicated & ...

  6. Effect of Deforestation and Land Use Changes on Mosquito Productivity and Development in Western Kenya Highlands: Implication for Malaria Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kweka, Eliningaya J; Kimaro, Epiphania E; Munga, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    African highlands were known to be free of malaria for the past 50 years. However, the ever growing human population in the highlands of Africa has led to the deforestation and land coverage changes to create space for more land for cultivation, grazing, and house construction materials needs. This has lead to the creation of suitable breeding habitats, which are in open places. Decrease of canopy and forest cover has led to increased temperature both in outdoors and indoors in deforested areas. This increased temperature has resulted in the shortening of developmental stages of aquatic stages of mosquitoes and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes. Assessment of the effects of deforestation and land coverage changes (decrease), which leads to temperature changes and subsequently increases survivorship of adults and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes' body was gathered from previous data collected from 2003 to 2012 using different analysis techniques. Habitats productivity, species dynamics and abundance, mosquitoes feeding rates, and sporogony development are presented in relation to temperature changes. The effects of temperature rise due to land cover changes in highlands of western Kenya on larval developmental rates, adult sporogony developments, and malaria risk in human population were derived. Vector species dynamics and abundance in relation to land use changes have been found to change with time. This study found that, land cover changes is a key driver for the temperature rise in African highlands and increases the rate of malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae ssp., An. Funestus , and An. arabiensis colonizing the highlands. It has also significantly enhanced sporogony development rate and adult vector survival and therefore the risk of malaria transmission in the highlands.

  7. Malaria in pregnancy | Okpere | Nigerian Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria remains one of the highest contributors to the precarious maternal mortality figures in sub-Saharan Africa. At least 6 million women worldwide are at risk of malaria infection in pregnancy. Malaria contributes to at least 10,000 maternal deaths and to at least 200,000 newborn deaths annually. Malaria is a contributor ...

  8. Congenital malaria in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Yong Tao

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Congenital malaria, in which infants are directly infected with malaria parasites from their mother prior to or during birth, is a potentially life-threatening condition that occurs at relatively low rates in malaria-endemic regions. It is recognized as a serious problem in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic sub-Saharan Africa, where recent data suggests that it is more common than previously believed. In such regions where malaria transmission is high, neonates may be protected from disease caused by congenital malaria through the transfer of maternal antibodies against the parasite. However, in low P. vivax-endemic regions, immunity to vivax malaria is low; thus, there is the likelihood that congenital vivax malaria poses a more significant threat to newborn health. Malaria had previously been a major parasitic disease in China, and congenital malaria case reports in Chinese offer valuable information for understanding the risks posed by congenital malaria to neonatal health. As most of the literature documenting congenital malaria cases in China are written in Chinese and therefore are not easily accessible to the global malaria research community, we have undertaken an extensive review of the Chinese literature on this subject. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we reviewed congenital malaria cases from three major searchable Chinese journal databases, concentrating on data from 1915 through 2011. Following extensive screening, a total of 104 cases of congenital malaria were identified. These cases were distributed mainly in the eastern, central, and southern regions of China, as well as in the low-lying region of southwest China. The dominant species was P. vivax (92.50%, reflecting the malaria parasite species distribution in China. The leading clinical presentation was fever, and other clinical presentations were anaemia, jaundice, paleness, diarrhoea, vomiting, and general weakness. With the exception of two cases, all patients

  9. Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrão, João Luís; Mendes, Jorge M; Painho, Marco

    2017-05-25

    Mozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication. Time series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model. Between 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1) 52 , and a regression model for a Box-Cox transformed number of malaria cases with lags 1, 2 and 3 of weekly malaria cases and lags 6 and 7 of weekly mean temperature and lags 12 of precipitation were fitted. Although, both produced similar widths for prediction intervals, the last was able to anticipate malaria outbreak more accurately. The Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the

  10. Immunochromatographic antigen testing alone is sufficient to identify asymptomatic refugees at risk of severe malaria presenting to a single health service in Victoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedele, Pasquale L; Wheeler, Michael; Lemoh, Christopher; Chunilal, Sanjeev

    2014-10-01

    Current screening guidelines for malaria in new refugees include a combination of thick and thin film examination and immunochromatographic antigen test (ICT). However, as the prevalence of malaria in our population has decreased due to changing refugee demographics, we sought to determine if an ICT alone can reliably exclude malaria in our asymptomatic refugee population.A retrospective analysis was conducted of all investigations for malaria performed from 1 August 2011 to 31 July 2013, including thick and thin blood film examination, BinaxNOW ICT, and external morphological and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) validation where applicable.Malaria was diagnosed in 45 of 1248 (3.6%) patients investigated, all of whom were symptomatic and the majority (71.1%) returned travellers. All 599 asymptomatic refugees screened were negative. Overall, 42 of 45 malaria cases were detected by the ICT; sensitivity 93.3% (95% CI 80.7-98.3%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 99.8% (99.2-99.9%). All 21 cases of Plasmodium falciparum and 20 of 22 cases of Plasmodium vivax were detected, giving a sensitivity of 100% (80.8-100%) and 90.9% (69.4-98.4%) respectively. Too few cases of Plasmodium malariae and no cases of Plasmodium ovale or Plasmodium knowlesi were diagnosed for adequate assessment to be carried out.These data suggest that full malaria screening in all asymptomatic refugees with the combination of thick and thin blood films and rapid antigen test may not be warranted. Alternative screening approaches should be considered, including the use of ICT alone, or limiting screening of asymptomatic refugees to only those originating from countries with high incidence of malaria.

  11. Risk prediction of hepatotoxicity in paracetamol poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Graudins, Andis

    2017-09-01

    Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common cause of acute liver failure in the developed world. A paracetamol treatment nomogram has been used for over four decades to help determine whether patients will develop hepatotoxicity without acetylcysteine treatment, and thus indicates those needing treatment. Despite this, a small proportion of patients still develop hepatotoxicity. More accurate risk predictors would be useful to increase the early detection of patients with the potential to develop hepatotoxicity despite acetylcysteine treatment. Similarly, there would be benefit in early identification of those with a low likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity, as this group may be safely treated with an abbreviated acetylcysteine regimen. To review the current literature related to risk prediction tools that can be used to identify patients at increased risk of hepatotoxicity. A systematic literature review was conducted using the search terms: "paracetamol" OR "acetaminophen" AND "overdose" OR "toxicity" OR "risk prediction rules" OR "hepatotoxicity" OR "psi parameter" OR "multiplication product" OR "half-life" OR "prothrombin time" OR "AST/ALT (aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase)" OR "dose" OR "biomarkers" OR "nomogram". The search was limited to human studies without language restrictions, of Medline (1946 to May 2016), PubMed and EMBASE. Original articles pertaining to the theme were identified from January 1974 to May 2016. Of the 13,975 articles identified, 60 were relevant to the review. Paracetamol treatment nomograms: Paracetamol treatment nomograms have been used for decades to help decide the need for acetylcysteine, but rarely used to determine the risk of hepatotoxicity with treatment. Reported paracetamol dose and concentration: A dose ingestion >12 g or serum paracetamol concentration above the treatment thresholds on the paracetamol nomogram are associated with a greater risk of hepatotoxicity. Paracetamol elimination half

  12. Risk of daytime transmission of malaria in the French Guiana rain forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommier de Santi, V; Dusfour, I; de Parseval, E; Lespinet, B; Nguyen, C; Gaborit, P; Carinci, R; Hyvert, G; Girod, R; Briolant, S

    2017-02-01

    Between 2008 and 2014, there were 1070 malaria cases reported in French Guiana among members of the armed forces. Most of the malaria outbreaks investigated were multifactorial and followed missions conducted at illegal gold mining sites. For example, a malaria outbreak occurred in September 2013, three weeks after the deployment of 15 soldiers at Dagobert, which is such a site. The attack rate was 53%, with seven Plasmodium vivax infections and one coinfection with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Two months later, an entomological investigation in the field caught 321 anopheles by the human landing catch method. Among them, 282 were Anopheles darlingi. One specimen was PCR-positive for P. vivax, for an infection rate of 0.4% (1/282). In 15.7% of these cases, the An. darlingi was caught during the day. The existence of daytime biting activity by An. darlingi in the Guianese forest might play a key role in malaria outbreaks among military personnel. This finding requires that the Army Health Service adapt its recommendations concerning malaria prevention in French Guiana.

  13. African Burkitt lymphoma: age-specific risk and correlations with malaria biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, Benjamin; Kawira, Esther; Ogwang, Martin D; Wabinga, Henry; Magatti, Josiah; Nkrumah, Francis; Neequaye, Janet; Bhatia, Kishor; Brubaker, Glen; Biggar, Robert J; Mbulaiteye, Sam M

    2011-03-01

    African Burkitt lymphoma is an aggressive B-cell, non-Hodgkin lymphoma linked to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Malaria biomarkers related to onset of African Burkitt lymphoma are unknown. We correlated age-specific patterns of 2,602 cases of African Burkitt lymphoma (60% male, mean ± SD age = 7.1 ± 2.9 years) from Uganda, Ghana, and Tanzania with malaria biomarkers published from these countries. Age-specific patterns of this disease and mean multiplicity of P. falciparum malaria parasites, defined as the average number of distinct genotypes per positive blood sample based on the merozoite surface protein-2 assessed by polymerase chain reaction, were correlated and both peaked between 5 and 9 years. This pattern, which was strong and consistent across regions, contrasted parasite prevalence, which peaked at 2 years and decreased slightly, and geometric mean parasite density, which peaked between 2 and 3 years and decreased sharply. Our findings suggest that concurrent infection with multiple malaria genotypes may be related to onset of African Burkitt lymphoma.

  14. Use of geoprocessing to define malaria risk areas and evaluation of the vectorial importance of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneguzzi, Viviane Coutinho; Santos, Claudiney Biral dos; Pinto, Israel de Souza; Feitoza, Leandro Roberto; Feitoza, Hideko Nagatani; Falqueto, Aloísio

    2009-07-01

    In Brazil, introduced malaria occurs from the flat to the sloping hot areas, predominantly outside the Amazon Region, where endemic malaria has occurred in the past. This is a consequence of human migrations to other Brazilian states, including the state of Espírito Santo (ES). The objective of this study was to use geoprocessing to define the areas at risk of introduced malaria transmission and evaluate the vectorial importance of species of anophelines in ES. Anophelines were sampled from 1997-2005 in 297 rural localities identified or not identified as foci of malaria during the last 20 years. The geoclimatic variables temperature, relief and marine influence were obtained from a database of the ES Natural Units. The 14,663 anophelines captured belonged to 22 species. A significant association was found between the occurrence of malaria foci and the presence of hot, low-lying areas or gently undulating to undulating relief. The occurrence of the disease was associated with the presence of Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles aquasalis. Geoprocessing was determined to be a useful tool for defining areas at risk for malaria and vectors in ES.

  15. Shoulder dystocia: risk factors, predictability, and preventability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shobha H; Sokol, Robert J

    2014-06-01

    Shoulder dystocia remains an unpredictable obstetric emergency, striking fear in the hearts of obstetricians both novice and experienced. While outcomes that lead to permanent injury are rare, almost all obstetricians with enough years of practice have participated in a birth with a severe shoulder dystocia and are at least aware of cases that have resulted in significant neurologic injury or even neonatal death. This is despite many years of research trying to understand the risk factors associated with it, all in an attempt primarily to characterize when the risk is high enough to avoid vaginal delivery altogether and prevent a shoulder dystocia, whose attendant morbidities are estimated to be at a rate as high as 16-48%. The study of shoulder dystocia remains challenging due to its generally retrospective nature, as well as dependence on proper identification and documentation. As a result, the prediction of shoulder dystocia remains elusive, and the cost of trying to prevent one by performing a cesarean delivery remains high. While ultimately it is the injury that is the key concern, rather than the shoulder dystocia itself, it is in the presence of an identified shoulder dystocia that occurrence of injury is most common. The majority of shoulder dystocia cases occur without major risk factors. Moreover, even the best antenatal predictors have a low positive predictive value. Shoulder dystocia therefore cannot be reliably predicted, and the only preventative measure is cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Methods employed in the prevention and treatment of malaria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    onasoga olayinka

    of malaria among pregnant women in riverine community in Bayelsa State, ... at high risk of the effects of malaria infection and need special protective .... mentioned maintenance of clean environment, as other methods of preventing malaria.

  17. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon I Hay

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Efficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007.A total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2-10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia, 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+, and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2-10 5 to or = 40% areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion, with a smaller number (0.11 billion at low stable risk.High levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are

  18. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Simon I; Guerra, Carlos A; Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M; Kabaria, Caroline W; Manh, Bui H; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Brooker, Simon; Smith, David L; Moyeed, Rana A; Snow, Robert W

    2009-03-24

    Efficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007. A total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2-10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2-10 5 to or = 40%) areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion), with a smaller number (0.11 billion) at low stable risk. High levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are found in the

  19. Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wangdi, Kinley; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Silawan, Tassanee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; White, Nicholas J; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit

    2010-09-03

    Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009

  20. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  1. Importance of adequate local spatiotemporal transmission measures in malaria cohort studies: application to the relation between placental malaria and first malaria infection in infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Port, Agnès; Cottrell, Gilles; Chandre, Fabrice; Cot, Michel; Massougbodji, Achille; Garcia, André

    2013-07-01

    According to several studies, infants whose mothers had a malaria-infected placenta (MIP) at delivery are at increased risk of a first malaria infection. Immune tolerance caused by intrauterine contact with the parasite could explain this phenomenon, but it is also known that infants who are highly exposed to Anopheles mosquitoes infected with Plasmodium are at greater risk of contracting malaria. Consequently, local malaria transmission must be taken into account to demonstrate the immune tolerance hypothesis. From data collected between 2007 and 2010 on 545 infants followed from birth to age 18 months in southern Benin, we compared estimates of the effect of MIP on time to first malaria infection obtained through different Cox models. In these models, MIP was adjusted for either 1) "village-like" time-independent exposure variables or 2) spatiotemporal exposure prediction derived from local climatic, environmental, and behavioral factors. Only the use of exposure prediction improved the model's goodness of fit (Bayesian Information Criterion) and led to clear conclusions regarding the effect of placental infection, whereas the models using the village-like variables were less successful than the univariate model. This demonstrated clearly the benefit of adequately taking transmission into account in cohort studies of malaria.

  2. Nonparametric predictive pairwise comparison with competing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

    2014-01-01

    In reliability, failure data often correspond to competing risks, where several failure modes can cause a unit to fail. This paper presents nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for pairwise comparison with competing risks data, assuming that the failure modes are independent. These failure modes could be the same or different among the two groups, and these can be both observed and unobserved failure modes. NPI is a statistical approach based on few assumptions, with inferences strongly based on data and with uncertainty quantified via lower and upper probabilities. The focus is on the lower and upper probabilities for the event that the lifetime of a future unit from one group, say Y, is greater than the lifetime of a future unit from the second group, say X. The paper also shows how the two groups can be compared based on particular failure mode(s), and the comparison of the two groups when some of the competing risks are combined is discussed

  3. The prediction of the bankruptcy risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe DUMITRESCU

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The study research results of the bankruptcy risk in the actual economic crisis are very weak. This issue is very important for the economy of every country, no matter what their actual development level.The necessity of bankruptcy risk prediction appears in every company,but also in the related institutions like financial companies, investors, suppliers, customers.The bankruptcy risk made and makes the object of many studies of research that want to identify: the moment of the appearance of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete at the reach of this state, the indicators that express the best this orientation (to the bankruptcy.The threats to the firms impose the knowledge by the managers,permanently of the economic-financial situations, of the vulnerable areas and of those with potential of development. Thus, these must identify and gesture the threats that would stop the fulfillment of the established purposes.

  4. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  5. Malaria, malnutrition, and birthweight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cates, Jordan E.; Unger, Holger W.; Briand, Valerie

    2017-01-01

    were identified by the Maternal Malaria and Malnutrition (M3) initiative using a convenience sampling approach and were eligible for pooling given adequate ethical approval and availability of essential variables. Study-specific adjusted effect estimates were calculated using inverse probability...... be multiplicative interaction between malaria infection at enrollment and low MUAC within studies conducted in Africa; however, this finding was not consistent on the additive scale, when accounting for multiple comparisons, or when using other definitions of malaria and malnutrition. The major limitations...... of the study included availability of only 2 cross-sectional measurements of malaria and the limited availability of ultrasound-based pregnancy dating to assess impacts on preterm birth and fetal growth in all studies.  Conclusions : Pregnant women with malnutrition and malaria infection are at increased risk...

  6. Spatio-temporal distribution of mosquitoes and risk of malaria infection in Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Karema, Corine; Munyakanage, Dunia; Githure, John; Mazarati, Jean Baptiste; Tongren, Jon Eric; Takken, Willem; Binagwaho, Agnes; Koenraadt, Constantianus J.M.

    2018-01-01

    To date, the Republic of Rwanda has not systematically reported on distribution, diversity and malaria infectivity rate of mosquito species throughout the country. Therefore, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of mosquitoes in the domestic environment, as well as the nocturnal biting

  7. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gahutu, J.B.; Steininger, C.; Shyirambere, C.; Zeile, I.; Cwinya-Ay, N.; Danquah, I.; Larsen, C.H.; Eggelte, T.A.; Uwimana, A.; Karema, C.; Musemakweri, A.; Harms, G.; Mockenhaupt, F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m), a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted

  8. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gahutu, Jean-Bosco; Steininger, Christian; Shyirambere, Cyprien; Zeile, Irene; Cwinya-Ay, Neniling; Danquah, Ina; Larsen, Christoph H.; Eggelte, Teunis A.; Uwimana, Aline; Karema, Corine; Musemakweri, Andre; Harms, Gundel; Mockenhaupt, Frank P.

    2011-01-01

    Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m), a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted early in

  9. HIV increases the risk of malaria in women of all gravidities in Kisumu, Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijk, Anna M.; Ayisi, John G.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Misore, Ambrose O.; Otieno, Juliana A.; Rosen, Daniel H.; Kager, Piet A.; Steketee, Richard W.; Nahlen, Bernard L.

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To study the importance of HIV infection for malaria in pregnancy in Kisumu, Kenya. Subjects and methods: Healthy women with an uncomplicated pregnancy of 32 weeks or more attending the prenatal clinic in the Provincial Hospital between June 1996 and March 1999 were tested for HIV and

  10. Prevalence of Malaria Infection and Risk Factors Associated with Anaemia among Pregnant Women in Semiurban Community of Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohail, Mohammad; Shakeel, Shayan; Kumari, Shweta; Bharti, Aakanksha; Zahid, Faisal; Anwar, Shadab; Singh, Krishn Pratap; Islam, Mazahirul; Sharma, Ajay Kumar; Lata, Sneh; Ali, Vahab; Adak, Tridibes; Das, Pradeep; Raziuddin, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    The escalating burden, pathogenesis, and clinical sequel of malaria during pregnancy have combinatorial adverse impact on both mother and foetus that further perplexed the situation of diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. This prompted us to evaluate the status of population at risk of MIP in Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India. Cross-sectional study was conducted over a year at Sadar Hospital, Hazaribag. Malaria was screened using blood smear and/or RDT. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin concentration. Pretested questionnaires were used to gather sociodemographic, clinical, and obstetrical data. The prevalence of MIP was 5.4% and 4.3% at ANC and DU, and 13.2% malaria was in women without pregnancy. Interestingly, majority were asymptomatically infected with P. vivax (over 85%) at ANC and DU. Peripheral parasitemia was significantly associated with fever within past week, rural origin of subjects, and first/second pregnancies in multivariate analysis, with the highest risk factor associated with fever followed by rural residence. Strikingly in cohort, anaemia was prevalent in 86% at ANC as compared to 72% at DU, whereas severe anaemia was 13.6% and 7.8% at ANC and DU. Even more anaemia prevalence was observed in MIP group (88% and 89% at ANC and DU), whereas severe anaemia was 23% and 21%, respectively. In view of observed impact of anaemia, parasitemia and asymptomatic infection of P. vivax during pregnancy and delivery suggest prompt diagnosis regardless of symptoms and comprehensive drug regime should be offered to pregnant women in association with existing measures in clinical spectrum of MIP, delivery, and its outcome.

  11. Prevalence of Malaria Infection and Risk Factors Associated with Anaemia among Pregnant Women in Semiurban Community of Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Sohail

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The escalating burden, pathogenesis, and clinical sequel of malaria during pregnancy have combinatorial adverse impact on both mother and foetus that further perplexed the situation of diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. This prompted us to evaluate the status of population at risk of MIP in Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India. Cross-sectional study was conducted over a year at Sadar Hospital, Hazaribag. Malaria was screened using blood smear and/or RDT. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin concentration. Pretested questionnaires were used to gather sociodemographic, clinical, and obstetrical data. The prevalence of MIP was 5.4% and 4.3% at ANC and DU, and 13.2% malaria was in women without pregnancy. Interestingly, majority were asymptomatically infected with P. vivax (over 85% at ANC and DU. Peripheral parasitemia was significantly associated with fever within past week, rural origin of subjects, and first/second pregnancies in multivariate analysis, with the highest risk factor associated with fever followed by rural residence. Strikingly in cohort, anaemia was prevalent in 86% at ANC as compared to 72% at DU, whereas severe anaemia was 13.6% and 7.8% at ANC and DU. Even more anaemia prevalence was observed in MIP group (88% and 89% at ANC and DU, whereas severe anaemia was 23% and 21%, respectively. In view of observed impact of anaemia, parasitemia and asymptomatic infection of P. vivax during pregnancy and delivery suggest prompt diagnosis regardless of symptoms and comprehensive drug regime should be offered to pregnant women in association with existing measures in clinical spectrum of MIP, delivery, and its outcome.

  12. Prevalence Soil Transmitted Helminthiasis and malaria co-infection among pregnant women and risk factors in Gilgel Gibe dam Area, Southwest Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Malaria and Soil Transmitted Helminthiasis (STH) are co-endemic and major public health problems in Ethiopia. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of malaria and STHs co-infection and to determine the association risk factors. Methods A cross-sectional community based study was conducted on 388 pregnant women living in three districts around Gilgel Gibe Dam area, southwestern Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and socio-economic data, single stool sample and blood sample were collected from each participant. Results The prevalence of STH and malaria was 159 (41%) and 45 (11.6%), respectively and the prevalence of STHs/malaria co-infection was 30 (7.7%). Hookworm was the most prevalent 114 (29.4%) soil transmitted helminthiasis infection followed by Ascaris lumbricoides (A. lumbricoides) 58 (15%) and Trichuris trichiura (T. trichiura) 13 (3.4%). Habit of eating soil (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 4.64, 95% CI: 1.50-14.36, P=0.008), presence of stagnant water near study participants’ house (AOR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.28-6.99, P=0.012) and habit of using human feces as a fertilizer (AOR= 5.34, 95% CI: 1.99-14.28, P<0.001) were found to be significantly associated with malaria and STH co-infection among the pregnant women. Hookworm parasitic load was positively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = 0.299, P<0.001) while A. lumbricoides parasitic load was negatively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = −0.095, P<0.001). Conclusion Intestinal parasite and/or malaria co-infection is a health problem among pregnant women living around Gilgel Gibe dam area. Therefore, intervention including improving sanitation, removing stagnant water, and health education to the pregnant women should be given. PMID:23837685

  13. Prevalence soil transmitted helminthiasis and malaria co-infection among pregnant women and risk factors in Gilgel Gibe Dam area, southwest Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getachew, Million; Tafess, Ketema; Zeynudin, Ahmed; Yewhalaw, Delenesaw

    2013-07-09

    Malaria and Soil Transmitted Helminthiasis (STH) are co-endemic and major public health problems in Ethiopia. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of malaria and STHs co-infection and to determine the association risk factors. A cross-sectional community based study was conducted on 388 pregnant women living in three districts around Gilgel Gibe Dam area, southwestern Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and socio-economic data, single stool sample and blood sample were collected from each participant. The prevalence of STH and malaria was 159 (41%) and 45 (11.6%), respectively and the prevalence of STHs/malaria co-infection was 30 (7.7%). Hookworm was the most prevalent 114 (29.4%) soil transmitted helminthiasis infection followed by Ascaris lumbricoides (A. lumbricoides) 58 (15%) and Trichuris trichiura (T. trichiura) 13 (3.4%). Habit of eating soil (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 4.64, 95% CI: 1.50-14.36, P=0.008), presence of stagnant water near study participants' house (AOR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.28-6.99, P=0.012) and habit of using human feces as a fertilizer (AOR= 5.34, 95% CI: 1.99-14.28, P<0.001) were found to be significantly associated with malaria and STH co-infection among the pregnant women. Hookworm parasitic load was positively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = 0.299, P<0.001) while A. lumbricoides parasitic load was negatively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = -0.095, P<0.001). Intestinal parasite and/or malaria co-infection is a health problem among pregnant women living around Gilgel Gibe dam area. Therefore, intervention including improving sanitation, removing stagnant water, and health education to the pregnant women should be given.

  14. MIGRATION AND MALARIA IN EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begoña Monge-Maillo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The proportion of imported malaria cases due to immigrants in Europe has increased during the lasts decades, being the higher rates for those settled immigrants who travel to visit friends and relatives (VFRs at their country of origin. Cases are mainly due to P. falciparum and Sub-Saharan Africa is the most common origin. Clinically, malaria in immigrants is characterized by a mild clinical presentation with even asymptomatic o delayed malaria cases and low parasitemic level. These characteristics may be explained by a semi-immunity acquired after long periods of time exposed to stable transmission of malaria. Malaria cases among immigrants, even those asymptomatic patients with sub-microscopic parasitemia, could increase the risk of transmission and reintroduction of malaria in certain areas with the adequate vectors and climate conditions. Moreover imported malaria cases by immigrants can also play an important role in the non-vectorial transmission out of endemic area, by blood transfusions, organ transplantation or congenital or occupational exposures. Probably, out of endemic areas, screening of malaria among recent arrived immigrants coming from malaria endemic countries should be performed. These aim to reduce the risk of clinical malaria in the individual as well as to prevent autochthonous transmission of malaria in areas where it had been eradicated.

  15. Remote sensing-based time series models for malaria early warning in the highlands of Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Midekisa Alemayehu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is one of the leading public health problems in most of sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. Almost all demographic groups are at risk of malaria because of seasonal and unstable transmission of the disease. Therefore, there is a need to develop malaria early-warning systems to enhance public health decision making for control and prevention of malaria epidemics. Data from orbiting earth-observing sensors can monitor environmental risk factors that trigger malaria epidemics. Remotely sensed environmental indicators were used to examine the influences of climatic and environmental variability on temporal patterns of malaria cases in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Methods In this study seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA models were used to quantify the relationship between malaria cases and remotely sensed environmental variables, including rainfall, land-surface temperature (LST, vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI, and actual evapotranspiration (ETa with lags ranging from one to three months. Predictions from the best model with environmental variables were compared to the actual observations from the last 12 months of the time series. Results Malaria cases exhibited positive associations with LST at a lag of one month and positive associations with indicators of moisture (rainfall, EVI and ETa at lags from one to three months. SARIMA models that included these environmental covariates had better fits and more accurate predictions, as evidenced by lower AIC and RMSE values, than models without environmental covariates. Conclusions Malaria risk indicators such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, LST, EVI, and ETa exhibited significant lagged associations with malaria cases in the Amhara region and improved model fit and prediction accuracy. These variables can be monitored frequently and extensively across large geographic areas using data from earth-observing sensors to support public

  16. Malaria - sick air on the march

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aunan, Kristin

    1999-01-01

    The article surveys the expansion of the malaria risk zones with increasing temperatures, change in climate and habitat alterations. Factors such as the living conditions for various malaria parasites, climatic changes, immunity and drug resistance are studied. It is evident that the greenhouse effects contribute to the expanding malaria risk zones

  17. Haemoglobin changes and risk of anaemia following treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwang, Julien; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Ndiaye, Jean-Louis; Djimdé, Abdoulaye A; Dorsey, Grant; Mårtensson, Andreas A; Karema, Corine; Olliaro, Piero L

    2017-06-23

    Anaemia is common in malaria. It is important to quantitate the risk of anaemia and to distinguish factors related to the natural history of disease from potential drug toxicity. Individual-patient data analysis based on nine randomized controlled trials of treatments of uncomplicated falciparum malaria from 13 sub-Saharan African countries. Risk factors for reduced haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations and anaemia on presentation and after treatment were analysed using mixed effect models. Eight thousand eight hundred ninety-seven patients (77.0% <5 years-old) followed-up through 28 days treated with artemisinin combination therapy (ACT, 90%, n = 7968) or non-ACT. At baseline, under 5's had the highest risk of anaemia (77.6% vs. 32.8%) and higher parasitaemia (43,938 μl) than older subjects (2784 μl). Baseline anaemia increased the risk of parasitological recurrence. Hb began to fall after treatment start. In under 5's the estimated nadir was ~35 h (range 29-48), with a drop of -12.8% from baseline (from 9.8 g/dl to 8.7 g/dl, p = 0.001); in under 15's, the mean Hb decline between day 0-3 was -4.7% (from 9.4 to 9.0 g/dl, p = 0.001). The degree of Hb loss was greater in patients with high pre-treatment Hb and parasitaemia and with slower parasite reduction rates, and was unrelated to age. Subsequently, Hb increased linearly (+0.6%/day) until day 28, to reach +13.8% compared to baseline. Severe anaemia (<5 g/dl, 2 per 1000 patients) was transient and all patients recovered after day 14, except one case of very severe anaemia associated with parasite recurrence at day 28. There was no systematic difference in Hb concentrations between treatments and no case of delayed anaemia. On presentation with acute malaria young children with high parasitaemia have the highest risk of anaemia. The majority of patients experience a drop in Hb while on treatment as early as day 1-2, followed by a linear increase through follow-up. The degree of the early Hb dip is

  18. HIV, malaria, and infant anemia as risk factors for postneonatal infant mortality among HIV-seropositive women in Kisumu, Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijk, Anna M.; Ayisi, John G.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Slutsker, Laurence; Shi, Ya Ping; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam; Otieno, Juliana A.; Kager, Piet A.; Lal, Renu B.; Steketee, Richard W.; Nahlen, Bernard L.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: HIV and malaria in sub-Saharan Africa are associated with poor pregnancy outcome and infant survival. We studied the association of placental malaria, infant malaria and anemia, and infant HIV status with postneonatal infant mortality (PNIM) among infants of HIV-seropositive women.

  19. Spatial association between malaria pandemic and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B M Dansu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Malaria pandemic (MP has been linked to a range of serious health problems including premature mortality. The main objective of this research is to quantify uncertainties about impacts of malaria on mortality. A multivariate spatial regression model was developed for estimation of the risk of mortality associated with malaria across Ogun State in Nigeria, West Africa. We characterize different local governments in the data and model the spatial structure of the mortality data in infants and pregnant women. A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model was considered for a space-time series of counts (mortality by constructing a likelihood-based version of a generalized Poisson regression model that combines methods for point-level misaligned data and change of support regression. A simple two-stage procedure for producing maps of predicted risk is described. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine an approximate risk on a larger scale, and geo-statistical ("Kriging" approaches were used to improve prediction at a local level. The results suggest improvement of risk prediction brought about in the second stage. The advantages and shortcomings of this approach highlight the need for further development of a better analytical methodology.

  20. Spatial analysis of land cover determinants of malaria incidence in the Ashanti Region, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krefis, Anne Caroline; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Nkrumah, Bernard; Acquah, Samuel; Loag, Wibke; Oldeland, Jens; Sarpong, Nimako; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; Ranft, Ulrich; May, Jürgen

    2011-03-23

    Malaria belongs to the infectious diseases with the highest morbidity and mortality worldwide. As a vector-borne disease malaria distribution is strongly influenced by environmental factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between malaria risk and different land cover classes by using high-resolution multispectral Ikonos images and Poisson regression analyses. The association of malaria incidence with land cover around 12 villages in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, was assessed in 1,988 children <15 years of age. The median malaria incidence was 85.7 per 1,000 inhabitants and year (range 28.4-272.7). Swampy areas and banana/plantain production in the proximity of villages were strong predictors of a high malaria incidence. An increase of 10% of swampy area coverage in the 2 km radius around a village led to a 43% higher incidence (relative risk [RR] = 1.43, p<0.001). Each 10% increase of area with banana/plantain production around a village tripled the risk for malaria (RR = 3.25, p<0.001). An increase in forested area of 10% was associated with a 47% decrease of malaria incidence (RR = 0.53, p = 0.029). Distinct cultivation in the proximity of homesteads was associated with childhood malaria in a rural area in Ghana. The analyses demonstrate the usefulness of satellite images for the prediction of malaria endemicity. Thus, planning and monitoring of malaria control measures should be assisted by models based on geographic information systems.

  1. Malaria Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... with facebook share with twitter share with linkedin Malaria Go to Information for Researchers ► Credit: NIAID Colorized ... for the disease. Why Is the Study of Malaria a Priority for NIAID? Roughly 3.2 billion ...

  2. Seroprevalence of Antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum Sporozoite Antigens as Predictive Disease Transmission Markers in an Area of Ghana with Seasonal Malaria Transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwadwo A Kusi

    Full Text Available As an increasing number of malaria-endemic countries approach the disease elimination phase, sustenance of control efforts and effective monitoring are necessary to ensure success. Mathematical models that estimate anti-parasite antibody seroconversion rates are gaining relevance as more sensitive transmission intensity estimation tools. Models however estimate yearly seroconversion and seroreversion rates and usually predict long term changes in transmission, occurring years before the time of sampling. Another challenge is the identification of appropriate antigen targets since specific antibody levels must directly reflect changes in transmission patterns. We therefore investigated the potential of antibodies to sporozoite and blood stage antigens for detecting short term differences in malaria transmission in two communities in Northern Ghana with marked, seasonal transmission.Cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the rainy and dry seasons in two communities, one in close proximity to an irrigation dam and the other at least 20 Km away from the dam. Antibodies against the sporozoite-specific antigens circumsporozoite protein (CSP and Cell traversal for ookinetes and sporozoites (CelTOS and the classical blood stage antigen apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Antibody levels and seroprevalence were compared between surveys and between study communities. Antibody seroprevalence data were fitted to a modified reversible catalytic model to estimate the seroconversion and seroreversion rates.Changes in sporozoite-specific antibody levels and seroprevalence directly reflected differences in parasite prevalence between the rainy and dry seasons and hence the extent of malaria transmission. Seroconversion rate estimates from modelled seroprevalence data did not however support the above observation.The data confirms the potential utility of sporozoite-specific antigens as useful markers for monitoring short term

  3. Individual-level factors associated with the risk of acquiring human Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Malaysia: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigg, Matthew J; Cox, Jonathan; William, Timothy; Jelip, Jenarun; Fornace, Kimberly M; Brock, Patrick M; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Barber, Bridget E; Anstey, Nicholas M; Yeo, Tsin W; Drakeley, Christopher J

    2017-06-09

    The emergence of human malaria due to the monkey parasite Plasmodium knowlesi threatens elimination efforts in southeast Asia. Changes in land use are thought to be driving the rise in reported P knowlesi cases, but the role of individual-level factors is unclear. To address this knowledge gap we assessed human and environmental factors associated with zoonotic knowlesi malaria risk. We did this population-based case-control study over a 2 year period in the state of Sabah in Malaysia. We enrolled cases with microscopy-positive, PCR-confirmed malaria who presented to two primary referral hospitals serving the adjacent districts of Kudat and Kota Marudu. We randomly selected three malaria-negative community controls per case, who were matched by village within 2 weeks of case detection. We obtained questionnaire data on demographics, behaviour, and residential malaria risk factors, and we also assessed glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) enzyme activity. We used conditional logistic regression models to evaluate exposure risk between P knowlesi cases and controls, and between P knowlesi and human-only Plasmodium spp malaria cases. From Dec 5, 2012, to Jan 30, 2015, we screened 414 patients and subsequently enrolled 229 cases with P knowlesi malaria mono-infection and 91 cases with other Plasmodium spp infection. We enrolled 953 matched controls, including 683 matched to P knowlesi cases and 270 matched to non- P knowlesi cases. Age 15 years or older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4·16, 95% CI 2·09-8·29, pwork (3·50, CI, 1·34-9·15, p=0·011), sleeping outside (3·61, 1·48-8·85, p=0·0049), travel (2·48, 1·45-4·23, p=0·0010), being aware of the presence of monkeys in the past 4 weeks (3·35, 1·91-5·88, pworking in agricultural areas were at highest risk of knowlesi malaria, although peri-domestic transmission also occurrs. Human behavioural factors associated with P knowlesi transmission could be targeted in future public health interventions. United

  4. Antibody levels against GLURP R2, MSP1 block 2 hybrid and AS202.11 and the risk of malaria in children living in hyperendemic (Burkina Faso) and hypo-endemic (Ghana) areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adu, Bright; Cherif, Mariama K; Bosomprah, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    therefore need to be evaluated against different malaria endemicity backgrounds. METHODS: The associations between antibody responses to the chimeric merozoite surface protein 1 block 2 hybrid (MSP1 hybrid), glutamate-rich protein region 2 (GLURP R2) and the peptide AS202.11, and the risk of malaria were...

  5. High prevalence of malaria in Zambezia, Mozambique: the protective effect of IRS versus increased risks due to pig-keeping and house construction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel A Temu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: African countries are scaling up malaria interventions, especially insecticide treated nets (ITN and indoor residual spraying (IRS, for which ambitious coverage targets have been set. In spite of these efforts infection prevalence remains high in many parts of the continent. This study investigated risk factors for malaria infection in children using three malaria indicator surveys from Zambezia province, Mozambique. The impact of IRS and ITNs, the effects of keeping farm animals and of the construction material of roofs of houses and other potential risk factors associated with malaria infection in children were assessed. METHODS: Cross-sectional community-based surveys were conducted in October of 2006, 2007 and 2008. A total of 8338 children (ages 1-15 years from 2748 households were included in the study. All children were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic tests. Caregiver interviews were used to assess household demographic and wealth characteristics and ITN and IRS coverage. Associations between malaria infection, vector control interventions and potential risk factors were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, the prevalence of malaria infection was 47.8% (95%CI: 38.7%-57.1% in children 1-15 years of age, less than a quarter of children (23.1%, 95%CI: 19.1%-27.6% were sleeping under ITN and almost two thirds were living in IRS treated houses (coverage 65.4%, 95%CI: 51.5%-77.0%. Protective factors that were independently associated with malaria infection were: sleeping in an IRS house without sleeping under ITN (Odds Ratio (OR= 0.6; 95%CI: 0.4-0.9; additional protection due to sleeping under ITN in an IRS treated house (OR = 0.5; 95%CI: 0.3-0.7 versus sleeping in an unsprayed house without a ITN; and parental education (primary/secondary: OR = 0.6; 95%CI: 0.5-0.7 versus parents with no education. Increased risk of infection was associated with: current fever (OR = 1.2; 95%CI: 1.0-1.5 versus no fever; pig keeping (OR

  6. An analysis of timing and frequency of malaria infection during pregnancy in relation to the risk of low birth weight, anaemia and perinatal mortality in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valea Innocent

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A prospective study aiming at assessing the effect of adding a third dose sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP to the standard two-dose intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women was carried out in Hounde, Burkina Faso, between March 2006 and July 2008. Pregnant women were identified as earlier as possible during pregnancy through a network of home visitors, referred to the health facilities for inclusion and followed up until delivery. Methods Study participants were enrolled at antenatal care (ANC visits and randomized to receive either two or three doses of SP at the appropriate time. Women were visited daily and a blood slide was collected when there was fever (body temperature > 37.5°C or history of fever. Women were encouraged to attend ANC and deliver in the health centre, where the new-born was examined and weighed. The timing and frequency of malaria infection was analysed in relation to the risk of low birth weight, maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality. Results Data on birth weight and haemoglobin were available for 1,034 women. The incidence of malaria infections was significantly lower in women having received three instead of two doses of SP. Occurrence of first malaria infection during the first or second trimester was associated with a higher risk of low birth weight: incidence rate ratios of 3.56 (p p = 0.034, respectively. After adjusting for possible confounding factors, the risk remained significantly higher for the infection in the first trimester of pregnancy (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.07, p = 0.002. The risk of maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality was not associated with the timing of first malaria infection. Conclusion Malaria infection during first trimester of pregnancy is associated to a higher risk of low birth weight. Women should be encouraged to use long-lasting insecticidal nets before and throughout their pregnancy.

  7. A SIMPLIFIED MODEL FOR PREDICTING MALARIA ENTOMOLOGIC INOCULATION RATES BASED ON ENTOMOLOGIC AND PARASITOLOGIC PARAMETERS RELEVANT TO CONTROL

    OpenAIRE

    KILLEEN, GERRY F.; McKENZIE, F. ELLIS; FOY, BRIAN D.; SCHIEFFELIN, CATHERINE; BILLINGSLEY, PETER F.; BEIER, JOHN C.

    2000-01-01

    Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit malaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of their feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the parasite sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the product of 1) the potential of individual vectors to ...

  8. Identifying malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site in context of low transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiath, Mansour; Faye, Babacar; Cisse, Badara; Ndiaye, Jean Louis; Gomis, Jules François; Dia, Anta Tal; Gaye, Oumar

    2014-11-24

    Malaria is major public health problem in Senegal. In some parts of the country, it occurs almost permanently with a seasonal increase during the rainy season. There is evidence to suggest that the prevalence of malaria in Senegal has decreased considerably during the past few years. Recent data from the Senegalese National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) indicates that the number of malaria cases decrease from 1,500,000 in 2006 to 174,339 in 2010. With the decline of malaria morbidity in Senegal, the characterization of the new epidemiological profile of this disease is crucial for public health decision makers. SaTScan™ software using the Kulldorf method of retrospective space-time permutation and the Bernoulli purely spatial model was used to identify malaria clusters using confirmed malaria cases in 74 villages. ArcMAp was used to map malaria hotspots. Logistic regression was used to investigate risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site. A total of 1,614 individuals in 440 randomly selected households were enrolled. The overall malaria prevalence was 12%. The malaria prevalence during the study period varied from less than 2% to more than 25% from one village to another. The results showed also that rooms located between 50 m to 100 m away from livestock holding place [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.044, 95% C.I (1.02 - 7.42)], bed net use [adjusted O.R = 1.2, P = 0.024, 95% C.I (1.02 -1.48)], are good predictors for malaria hotspots in the Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site. The socio economic status of the household also predicted on hotspots patterns. The less poor household are 30% less likely to be classified as malaria hotspots area compared to the poorest household [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.014, 95% C.I (0.47 - 0.91)]. The study investigated risk factors for malaria hotspots in small communities in the Keur Soce site. The result showed considerable variation of malaria

  9. Dehydration and malaria augment the risk of developing chronic kidney disease in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. R. I. E. Siriwardhana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic kidney disease (CKD of unknown etiology (CKDu is a serious health issue in Sri Lanka. One-to-one age and sex-matched two sample comparative study was carried out in the Medawachchiya divisional secretariat area of the North Central Province (NCP of Sri Lanka, by randomly selecting 100 CKDu patients and 100 age and sex-matched subjects from non-CKDu affected families from the same area. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used for the collection of data pertaining to occupation, medical history and lifestyle. Data were analyzed using a conditional linear logistic model. Working for >6 h in the field per day, exposure to sun, drinking water only from well, consumption of <3 L of water per day, and having a history of malaria were found to be having significant (P < 0.05 likelihood toward the development of CKDu. Treatment of water prior to consumption had a significant protective effect against CKDu. Dehydration, history of malaria and drinking untreated well water from are likely contribute to the development of CKD of unknown etiology among the inhabitants of NCP, Sri Lanka.

  10. An analysis of timing and frequency of malaria infection during pregnancy in relation to the risk of low birth weight, anaemia and perinatal mortality in Burkina Faso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valea, Innocent; Tinto, Halidou; Drabo, Maxime K; Huybregts, Lieven; Sorgho, Hermann; Ouedraogo, Jean-Bosco; Guiguemde, Robert T; van Geertruyden, Jean Pierre; Kolsteren, Patrick; D'Alessandro, Umberto

    2012-03-16

    A prospective study aiming at assessing the effect of adding a third dose sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) to the standard two-dose intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women was carried out in Hounde, Burkina Faso, between March 2006 and July 2008. Pregnant women were identified as earlier as possible during pregnancy through a network of home visitors, referred to the health facilities for inclusion and followed up until delivery. Study participants were enrolled at antenatal care (ANC) visits and randomized to receive either two or three doses of SP at the appropriate time. Women were visited daily and a blood slide was collected when there was fever (body temperature > 37.5°C) or history of fever. Women were encouraged to attend ANC and deliver in the health centre, where the new-born was examined and weighed. The timing and frequency of malaria infection was analysed in relation to the risk of low birth weight, maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality. Data on birth weight and haemoglobin were available for 1,034 women. The incidence of malaria infections was significantly lower in women having received three instead of two doses of SP. Occurrence of first malaria infection during the first or second trimester was associated with a higher risk of low birth weight: incidence rate ratios of 3.56 (p pregnancy (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.07, p = 0.002). The risk of maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality was not associated with the timing of first malaria infection. Malaria infection during first trimester of pregnancy is associated to a higher risk of low birth weight. Women should be encouraged to use long-lasting insecticidal nets before and throughout their pregnancy.

  11. morphological identification of malaria vectors within anopheles

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMIN

    Africa among the human population. Determination of risk of malaria transmission requires quick and accurate methods of identification of Anopheles mosquitoes especially when targeting vector control. (Maxwell, et al., 2003). Anopheles mosquito transmits malaria. The most important vectors of malaria are members of.

  12. Development of an attrition risk prediction tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, John; Norrie, Peter

    To review lecturers' and students' perceptions of the factors that may lead to attrition from pre-registration nursing and midwifery programmes and to identify ways to reduce the impact of such factors on the student's experience. Comparable attrition rates for nursing and midwifery students across various universities are difficult to monitor accurately; however, estimates that there is approximately a 25% national attrition rate are not uncommon. The financial and human implications of this are significant and worthy of investigation. A study was carried out in one medium-sized UK school of nursing and midwifery, aimed at identifying perceived factors associated with attrition and retention. Thirty-five lecturers were interviewed individually; 605 students completed a questionnaire, and of these, 10 were individually interviewed. Attrition data kept by the student service department were reviewed. Data were collected over an 18-month period in 2007-2008. Regression analysis of the student data identified eight significant predictors. Four of these were 'positive' factors in that they aided student retention and four were 'negative' in that they were associated with students' thoughts of resigning. Student attrition and retention is multifactorial, and, as such, needs to be managed holistically. One aspect of this management could be an attrition risk prediction tool.

  13. Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Alberto Achcar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

  14. Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achcar, Jorge Alberto; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Souza, Aparecida Doniseti Pires de; Tachibana, Vilma Mayumi; Flores, Edilson Ferreira

    2011-01-01

    Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using bayesian spatiotemporal methods. We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

  15. Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

  16. Early detection and monitoring of Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdelhamid; Miller, Howard; Rosy, Dilara A.

    2015-05-01

    Global Earth Observation Systems of Systems (GEOSS) are bringing vital societal benefits to people around the globe. In this research article, we engage undergraduate students in the exciting area of space exploration to improve the health of millions of people globally. The goal of the proposed research is to place students in a learning environment where they will develop their problem solving skills in the context of a world crisis (e.g., malaria). Malaria remains one of the greatest threats to public health, particularly in developing countries. The World Health Organization has estimated that over one million die of Malaria each year, with more than 80% of these found in Sub-Saharan Africa. The mosquitoes transmit malaria. They breed in the areas of shallow surface water that are suitable to the mosquito and parasite development. These environmental factors can be detected with satellite imagery, which provide high spatial and temporal coverage of the earth's surface. We investigate on moisture, thermal and vegetation stress indicators developed from NOAA operational environmental satellite data. Using these indicators and collected epidemiological data, it is possible to produce a forecast system that can predict the risk of malaria for a particular geographical area with up to four months lead time. This valuable lead time information provides an opportunity for decision makers to deploy the necessary preventive measures (spraying, treated net distribution, storing medications and etc) in threatened areas with maximum effectiveness. The main objective of the proposed research is to study the effect of ecology on human health and application of NOAA satellite data for early detection of malaria.

  17. Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-07-14

    Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease

  18. Dehydration and malaria augment the risk of developing chronic kidney disease in Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siriwardhana, E A R I E; Perera, P A J; Sivakanesan, R; Abeysekara, T; Nugegoda, D B; Jayaweera, J A A S

    2015-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown etiology (CKDu) is a serious health issue in Sri Lanka. One-to-one age and sex-matched two sample comparative study was carried out in the Medawachchiya divisional secretariat area of the North Central Province (NCP) of Sri Lanka, by randomly selecting 100 CKDu patients and 100 age and sex-matched subjects from non-CKDu affected families from the same area. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used for the collection of data pertaining to occupation, medical history and lifestyle. Data were analyzed using a conditional linear logistic model. Working for >6 h in the field per day, exposure to sun, drinking water only from well, consumption of CKDu. Treatment of water prior to consumption had a significant protective effect against CKDu. Dehydration, history of malaria and drinking untreated well water from are likely contribute to the development of CKD of unknown etiology among the inhabitants of NCP, Sri Lanka.

  19. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity—0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity—2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  20. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  1. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Howcroft

    Full Text Available Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP and medial-lateral (ML center of pressure (CoP motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS; and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24, prospective all fallers (42, prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple, and prospective non-fallers (47. Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for

  2. Malaria in pregnancy: ultrasound studies of fetal growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Malaria has been a plague for human mankind. Each year roughly 125 million pregnancies are at risk for malaria infection. This thesis demonstrates the detrimental effects of malaria in pregnancy on the mother and the baby. To determine the effects of malaria in pregnancy on birth outcomes, accurate

  3. Naturally acquired antibodies target the glutamate-rich protein on intact merozoites and predict protection against febrile malaria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kana, Ikhlaq Hussain; Adu, Bright; Tiendrebeogo, Régis Wendpayangde

    2017-01-01

    febrile malaria. Similarly, GLURP-specific antibodies previously shown to be protective against febrile malaria in this same cohort were significantly associated with OP activity in this study. GLURP-specific antibodies recognized merozoites and also mediated OP activity. Conclusions.: These findings......Background.: Plasmodium species antigens accessible at the time of merozoite release are likely targets of biologically functional antibodies. Methods.: Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against intact merozoites were quantified in the plasma of Ghanaian children from a longitudinal cohort using...... a novel flow cytometry-based immunofluorescence assay. Functionality of these antibodies, as well as glutamate-rich protein (GLURP)-specific affinity-purified IgG from malaria hyperimmune Liberian adults, was assessed by the opsonic phagocytosis (OP) assay. Results.: Opsonic phagocytosis activity...

  4. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  5. Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

    2018-01-01

    from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

  6. Risk stratification in upper gastrointestinal bleeding; prediction, prevention and prognosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, N.L.

    2013-01-01

    In the first part of this thesis we developed a novel prediction score for predicting upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in both NSAID and low-dose aspirin users. Both for NSAIDs and low-dose aspirin use risk scores were developed by identifying the five most dominant predictors. The risk of upper

  7. Effect of transmission intensity on hotspots and micro-epidemiology of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogeni, Polycarp; Omedo, Irene; Nyundo, Christopher; Kamau, Alice; Noor, Abdisalan; Bejon, Philip

    2017-06-30

    Malaria transmission intensity is heterogeneous, complicating the implementation of malaria control interventions. We provide a description of the spatial micro-epidemiology of symptomatic malaria and asymptomatic parasitaemia in multiple sites. We assembled data from 19 studies conducted between 1996 and 2015 in seven countries of sub-Saharan Africa with homestead-level geospatial data. Data from each site were used to quantify spatial autocorrelation and examine the temporal stability of hotspots. Parameters from these analyses were examined to identify trends over varying transmission intensity. Significant hotspots of malaria transmission were observed in most years and sites. The risk ratios of malaria within hotspots were highest at low malaria positive fractions (MPFs) and decreased with increasing MPF (p hotspots was lowest at extremely low and extremely high MPFs, with a peak in statistical significance at an MPF of ~0.3. In four sites with longitudinal data we noted temporal instability and variable negative correlations between MPF and average age of symptomatic malaria across all sites, suggesting varying degrees of temporal stability. We observed geographical micro-variation in malaria transmission at sites with a variety of transmission intensities across sub-Saharan Africa. Hotspots are marked at lower transmission intensity, but it becomes difficult to show statistical significance when cases are sparse at very low transmission intensity. Given the predictability with which hotspots occur as transmission intensity falls, malaria control programmes should have a low threshold for responding to apparent clustering of cases.

  8. Spatial modeling of malaria incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistanprovince, Islamic Republic of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, M.; Mohammad, K.; Frahani, Mahmud M.; Zeraati, H.; Nourijelyani, K.; Zayeri, F.

    2008-01-01

    Objective was to identify the effect of environmental factors on malariarisk and to visualize spatial map of malaria standard incidence rates inSistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran. In thiscross-sectional study, the data from 42, 162 registered new malaria casesfrom 21 March 2001 (Iran new year) to 21 of March 2006 were studied. Todescribe the statistical association between environmental factors andmalaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. Inaddition, we used the second ordered stationary Kriging and a variogram todetermine the appropriate spatial correlation structure among the malariastandard incidence rates, and provide a proper malaria risk map in the areaunder study. The obtained results from the spatial modeling revealed thathumidity (p=0.0004), temperature (p<0.0001) and elevation (p<0.0001) werepositively, and precipitation (p=0.0029) was inversely correlated with themalaria risk. Moreover, the malaria risk amp based on the predicted valuesshowed that the south part of this province (Baluchistan) has a higher riskof malaria, compared to the northern area (Sistan). Since the effectiveenvironmental factors on malaria risk are out of human's control, the healthpolicy makers in this province should pay more attention to the areas withhigher temperature, elevation and humidity, as well as, low rainfalldistricts. (author)

  9. Malaria cerebral Cerebral malaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Hugo Zapata Zapata

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available La malaria Cerebral (MC es la complicación más frecuente de la malaria por P. falciparum; aproximadamente el 90% de las personas que la han padecido se recuperan completamente sin secuelas neurológicas. Aún no se conoce con claridad su patogénesis pero se han postulado cuatro hipótesis o mecanismos posibles: 1 citoadherencia y secuestro de glóbulos rojos parasitados en la microvasculatura cerebral; 2 formación de rosetas y aglutinación de glóbulos rojos parasitados; 3 producción de citoquinas y activación de segundos mensajeros y, 4 apertura de la barrera hematoencefálica. Sin embargo, queda un interrogante sin resolver aún: ¿qué proceso se lleva a cabo para que el parásito, desde el espacio microvascular, pueda interferir transitoriamente con la función cerebral? Recientemente se ha utilizado el precursor de la proteína b-Amiloide como un marcador de daño neuronal en MC; este precursor será de gran ayuda en futuras investigaciones realizadas en nuestro medio que aporten información para comprender la patogénesis de la MC. Is the most common complication of P. falciparum malaria; nearly 90% of people who have suffered CM can recover without neurological problems. Currently there are four hypotheses that explain pathogenesis of CM: cytoadherence and sequestering of parasitized red blood cells to cerebral capillaries; rosette formation and parasitized red blood cells agglutination; production of cytokines and activation of second messengers and opening of the blood-brain barrier. However the main question remains to be answered; how the host-parasite interaction in the vascular space interferes transiently with cerebral function? Recently, the beta amyloid precursor peptide has been employed as marker of neural injury in CM. It is expected that the beta amyloid precursor peptide will help to understand the pathogenesis of CM in complicated patients of endemic areas of Colombia.

  10. Malaria entomological risk factors in relation to land cover in the Lower Caura River Basin, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio-Palis, Yasmin; Bevilacqua, Mariapia; Medina, Domingo Alberto; Moreno, Jorge Ernesto; Cárdenas, Lya; Sánchez, Víctor; Estrada, Yarys; Anaya, William; Martínez, Ángela

    2013-01-01

    To explore the effects of deforestation and resulting differences in vegetation and land cover on entomological parameters, such as anopheline species composition, abundance, biting rate, parity and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), three villages were selected in the Lower Caura River Basin, state of Bolívar, Venezuela. All-night mosquito collections were conducted between March 2008-January 2009 using CDC light traps and Mosquito Magnet(r) Liberty Plus. Human landing catches were performed between 06:00 pm-10:00 pm, when anophelines were most active. Four types of vegetation were identified. The Annual Parasite Index was not correlated with the type of vegetation. The least abundantly forested village had the highest anopheline abundance, biting rate and species diversity. Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari were the most abundant species and were collected in all three villages. Both species showed unique biting cycles. The more abundantly forested village of El Palmar reported the highest EIR. The results confirmed previous observations that the impacts of deforestation and resulting changes in vegetation cover on malaria transmission are complex and vary locally. PMID:23579803

  11. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  12. Predicting risk of cancer during HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borges, Álvaro H; Silverberg, Michael J; Wentworth, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection.......To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection....

  13. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  14. Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

    2018-01-12

    Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

  15. Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainz-Elipe, Sandra; Latorre, Jose Manuel; Escosa, Raul; Masià, Montserrat; Fuentes, Marius Vicent; Mas-Coma, Santiago; Bargues, Maria Dolores

    2010-07-31

    International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour

  16. Malaria Matters

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2008-04-18

    This podcast gives an overview of malaria, including prevention and treatment, and what CDC is doing to help control and prevent malaria globally.  Created: 4/18/2008 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 4/18/2008.

  17. Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

  18. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schalkwijk, D.B. van; Graaf, A.A. de; Tsivtsivadze, E.; Parnell, L.D.; Werff-van der Vat, B.J.C. van der; Ommen, B. van; Greef, J. van der; Ordovás, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to

  19. Develop mental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, PA; Hulme, C; Nash, HM; Gooch, Deborah; Hayiou-Thomas, E; Snowling, MJ

    2015-01-01

    Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited...

  20. Factors that are associated with the risk of acquiring Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Sabah, Malaysia: a case-control study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigg, M J; William, T; Drakeley, C J; Jelip, J; von Seidlein, L; Barber, B E; Fornace, K M; Anstey, N M; Yeo, T W; Cox, J

    2014-08-22

    Plasmodium knowlesi has long been present in Malaysia, and is now an emerging cause of zoonotic human malaria. Cases have been confirmed throughout South-East Asia where the ranges of its natural macaque hosts and Anopheles leucosphyrus group vectors overlap. The majority of cases are from Eastern Malaysia, with increasing total public health notifications despite a concurrent reduction in Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria. The public health implications are concerning given P. knowlesi has the highest risk of severe and fatal disease of all Plasmodium spp in Malaysia. Current patterns of risk and disease vary based on vector type and competence, with individual exposure risks related to forest and forest-edge activities still poorly defined. Clustering of cases has not yet been systematically evaluated despite reports of peri-domestic transmission and known vector competence for human-to-human transmission. A population-based case-control study will be conducted over a 2-year period at two adjacent districts in north-west Sabah, Malaysia. Confirmed malaria cases presenting to the district hospital sites meeting relevant inclusion criteria will be requested to enrol. Three community controls matched to the same village as the case will be selected randomly. Study procedures will include blood sampling and administration of household and individual questionnaires to evaluate potential exposure risks associated with acquisition of P. knowlesi malaria. Secondary outcomes will include differences in exposure variables between P. knowlesi and other Plasmodium spp, risk of severe P. knowlesi malaria, and evaluation of P. knowlesi case clustering. Primary analysis will be per protocol, with adjusted ORs for exposure risks between cases and controls calculated using conditional multiple logistic regression models. This study has been approved by the human research ethics committees of Malaysia, the Menzies School of Health Research, Australia, and the London

  1. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-01-01

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks...... prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...

  2. Elevated dry-season malaria prevalence associated with fine-scale spatial patterns of environmental risk: a case-control study of children in rural Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townes, Lindsay R; Mwandama, Dyson; Mathanga, Don P; Wilson, Mark L

    2013-11-11

    Understanding the role of local environmental risk factors for malaria in holo-endemic, poverty-stricken settings will be critical to more effectively implement- interventions aimed at eventual elimination. Household-level environmental drivers of malaria risk during the dry season were investigated in rural southern Malawi among children Authority (TA) regions dominated by small-scale agriculture. Ten villages were randomly selected from TA Sitola (n = 6) and Nsamala (n = 4). Within each village, during June to August 2011, a census was conducted of all households with children under-five and recorded their locations with a geographic position system (GPS) device. At each participating house, a nurse administered a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) to children under five years of age, and a questionnaire to parents. Environmental data were collected for each house, including land cover within 50-m radius. Variables found to be significantly associated with P. falciparum infection status in bivariate analysis were included in generalized linear models, including multivariate logistic regression (MLR) and multi-level multivariate logistic regression (MLLR). Spatial clustering of RDT status, environmental factors, and Pearson residuals from MLR and MLLR were analysed using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Of 390 children enrolled from six villages in Sitola (n = 162) and four villages in Nsamala (n = 228), 45.6% tested positive (n = 178) for Plasmodium infection by RDT. The MLLR modelled the statistical relationship of Plasmodium positives and household proximity to agriculture ( 2.58, p < 0.01) predominantly within TA Sitola, while residuals from MLLR showed no such clustering. This study provides evidence for significant, dry-season heterogeneity of malaria prevalence strongly linked to peridomestic land use, and particularly of elevated risk associated with nearby crop production.

  3. Water erosion risk prediction in eucalyptus plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayesse Aparecida da Silva

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus plantations are normally found in vulnerable ecosystems such as steep slope, soil with low natural fertility and lands that were degraded by agriculture. The objective of this study was to obtain Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE factors and use them to estimate water erosion risk in regions with eucalyptus planted. The USLE factors were obtained in field plots under natural rainfall in the Rio Doce Basin, MG, Brazil, and the model applied to assess erosion risk using USLE in a Geographic Information System. The study area showed rainfall-runoff erosivity values from 10,721 to 10,642 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Some soils (Latosols had very low erodibility values (2.0 x 10-4 and 1.0 x 10-4t h MJ-1 mm-1, the topographic factor ranged from 0.03 to 10.57 and crop and management factor values obtained for native forest, eucalyptus and planted pasture were 0.09, 0.12 and 0.22, respectively. Water erosion risk estimates for current land use indicated that the areas where should receive more attention were mainly areas with greater topographic factors and those with Cambisols. Planning of forestry activities in this region should consider implementation of other conservation practices beyond those already used, reducing areas with a greater risk of soil erosion and increasing areas with very low risk.

  4. Comparative benefit of malaria chemoprophylaxis modelled in United Kingdom travellers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toovey, Stephen; Nieforth, Keith; Smith, Patrick; Schlagenhauf, Patricia; Adamcova, Miriam; Tatt, Iain; Tomianovic, Danitza; Schnetzler, Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    Chemoprophylaxis against falciparum malaria is recommended for travellers from non-endemic countries to malarious destinations, but debate continues on benefit, especially with regard to mefloquine. Quantification of benefit for travellers from the United Kingdom (UK) was modelled to assist clinical and public health decision making. The model was constructed utilising: World Tourism Organization data showing total number of arrivals from the UK in countries with moderate or high malaria risk; data from a retrospective UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) drug utilisation study; additional information on chemoprophylaxis, case fatality and tolerability were derived from the travel medicine literature. Chemoprophylaxis with the following agents was considered: atovaquone-proguanil (AP), chloroquine with and without proguanil (C ± P), doxycycline (Dx), mefloquine (Mq). The model was validated for the most recent year with temporally matched datasets for UK travel destinations and imported malaria (2007) against UK Health Protection Agency data on imported malaria. The median (mean) duration of chemoprophylaxis for each agent in weeks (CPRD) was: AP 3.3 (3.5), C ± P 9 (12.1), Dx 8 (10.3), Mq 9 (12.3): the maximum duration of use of all regimens was 52 weeks. The model correctly predicted falciparum malaria deaths and gave a robust estimate of total cases--model: 5 deaths from 1118 cases; UK Health Protection Agency: 5 deaths from 1153 cases. The number needed to take chemoprophylaxis (NNP) to prevent a case of malaria considered against the 'background' reported incidence in non-users of chemoprophylaxis deemed in need of chemoprophylaxis was: C ± P 272, Dx 269, Mq 260, AP 252; the NNP to prevent a UK traveller malaria death was: C ± P 62613, Dx 61923, Mq 59973, AP 58059; increasing the 'background' rate by 50% yielded NNPs of: C ± P 176, Dx 175, Mq 171, AP 168. The impact of substituting atovaquone-proguanil for all mefloquine usage resulted in a 2

  5. Predicting risk and the emergence of schizophrenia.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Clarke, Mary C

    2012-09-01

    This article gives an overview of genetic and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. The presence of certain molecular, biological, and psychosocial factors at certain points in the life span, has been linked to later development of schizophrenia. All need to be considered in the context of schizophrenia as a lifelong brain disorder. Research interest in schizophrenia is shifting to late childhood\\/early adolescence for screening and preventative measures. This article discusses those environmental risk factors for schizophrenia for which there is the largest evidence base.

  6. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  7. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  8. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  9. Placental malaria among HIV-infected and uninfected women receiving anti-folates in a high transmission area of Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorsey Grant

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background HIV infection increases the risk of placental malaria, which is associated with poor maternal and infant outcomes. Recommendations in Uganda are for HIV-infected pregnant women to receive daily trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole (TS and HIV-uninfected women to receive intermittent sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP. TS decreases the risk of malaria in HIV-infected adults and children but has not been evaluated among pregnant women. Methods This was a cross sectional study comparing the prevalence of placental malaria between HIV-infected women prescribed TS and HIV-uninfected women prescribed intermittent preventive therapy with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPT-SP in a high malaria transmission area in Uganda. Placental blood was evaluated for malaria using smear and PCR. Results Placentas were obtained from 150 HIV-infected women on TS and 336 HIV-uninfected women on IPT-SP. The proportion of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women with placental malaria was 19% vs. 26% for those positive by PCR and 6% vs. 9% for those positive by smear, respectively. Among all infants, smear+ placental malaria was most predictive of low birth weight (LBW. Primigravidae were at higher risk than multigravidae of having placental malaria among HIV-uninfected, but not HIV-infected, women. Adjusting for gravidity, age, and season at the time of delivery, HIV-infected women on TS were not at increased risk for placental malaria compared to HIV-uninfected women on IPT-SP, regardless of the definition used. Conclusion Prevalence of placental malaria was similar in HIV-infected women on TS and HIV-uninfected women on IPT-SP. Nonetheless, while nearly all of the women in this study were prescribed anti-folates, the overall risk of placental malaria and LBW was unacceptably high. The population attributable risk of placental malaria on LBW was substantial, suggesting that future interventions that further diminish the risk of placental malaria may have a

  10. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    OpenAIRE

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D.; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E.

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed w...

  11. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  12. A refined estimate of the malaria burden in Niger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doudou Maimouna

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The health authorities of Niger have implemented several malaria prevention and control programmes in recent years. These interventions broadly follow WHO guidelines and international recommendations and are based on interventions that have proved successful in other parts of Africa. Most performance indicators are satisfactory but, paradoxically, despite the mobilization of considerable human and financial resources, the malaria-fighting programme in Niger seems to have stalled, as it has not yet yielded the expected significant decrease in malaria burden. Indeed, the number of malaria cases reported by the National Health Information System has actually increased by a factor of five over the last decade, from about 600,000 in 2000 to about 3,000,000 in 2010. One of the weaknesses of the national reporting system is that the recording of malaria cases is still based on a presumptive diagnosis approach, which overestimates malaria incidence. Methods An extensive nationwide survey was carried out to determine by microscopy and RDT testing, the proportion of febrile patients consulting at health facilities for suspected malaria actually suffering from the disease, as a means of assessing the magnitude of this problem and obtaining a better estimate of malaria morbidity in Niger. Results In total, 12,576 febrile patients were included in this study; 57% of the slides analysed were positive for the malaria parasite during the rainy season, when transmission rates are high, and 9% of the slides analysed were positive during the dry season, when transmission rates are lower. The replacement of microscopy methods by rapid diagnostic tests resulted in an even lower rate of confirmation, with only 42% of cases testing positive during the rainy season, and 4% during the dry season. Fever alone has a low predictive value, with a low specificity and sensitivity. These data highlight the absolute necessity of confirming all reported

  13. Rural households at risk of malaria did not own sufficient insecticide treated nets at Dabat HDSS site: evidence from a cross sectional re-census.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchie, Kindie Fentahun; Alemu, Kassahun; Tariku, Amare; Tsegaye, Adino Tesfahun; Abebe, Solomon Mekonnen; Yitayal, Mezgebu; Awoke, Tadesse; Biks, Gashaw Andargie

    2017-11-21

    Malaria is the leading cause of disease burden across the world, especially in African countries. Ethiopia has designed a five year (2011-2015) plan to cover 100% of the households in malarious areas with one insecticide treated net (ITN) for every two persons, and to raise consistent ITN utilization to at least 80%. However, evidence on ownership of ITN among malarious rural households in northwest Ethiopia is quite limited. Hence, the present study aimed at assessing ownership of ITN and associated factors among rural households at risk of malaria at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site, northwest Ethiopia. A cross sectional re-census was carried out in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site during peak malaria seasons from October to December, 2014. Data for 15,088 households at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site were used for the analysis. Descriptive measures and binary logistic regression were carried out. Among those who owned at least one ITN, 53.4% were living at an altitude >2500 m above sea level. However, out of households living at an altitude ownership of ITN. Rural households at risk of malaria did not own a sufficient number of ITN though the utilization is promising. Moreover, prioritizing children and pregnant women to sleep under ITN remains public health problems. Programmers, partners and implementers should consider tailored intervention strategy stratified by altitude in distributing ITN. ITN distribution should also be accompanied by using exhaustive promotion strategies that consider people without access to any source of information, and educating households to prioritize pregnant and under five children to sleep under ITN.

  14. PREDICTION OF SURGICAL TREATMENT WITH POUR PERITONITIS QUANTIFYING RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І. К. Churpiy

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Explored the possibility of quantitative assessment of risk factors of complications in the treatment of diffuse peritonitis. Highlighted 53 groups of features that are important in predicting the course of diffuse peritonitis. The proposed scheme of defining the risk of clinical course of diffuse peritonitis can quantify the severity of the source of patients and in most cases correctly predict the results of treatment of disease.

  15. Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

    2017-11-01

    Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Malaria prophylaxis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria D:lay still be contracted despite good cOD:lpliance with ... true that prophylaxis is always better than no prophy- laxis, nor is ... If used during pregnancy, a folic acid supplement ... include folate deficiency, agranulocytosis, illegaloblastic.

  17. Obesity Risk Prediction among Women of Upper Egypt: The impact ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity Risk Prediction among Women of Upper Egypt: The impact of FTO ... with increased obesity risk but there is a lack of association with diabetes. ... (as certain foods or gene therapy) will prevent the percentage of women who is affected ...

  18. Factors influencing the usage of different types of malaria prevention ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To examine factors which influence the use of different types of malaria prevention ... risk areas, religion, education and income influenced ITN usage, whereas only age, malaria .... the uptake of IPTp given that the person would not.

  19. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviours

    OpenAIRE

    Guiso, Luigi; Paiella, Monica

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers’ decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  20. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Monica Paiella; Luigi Guiso

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers' decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  1. Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W

    2013-09-01

    1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  2. Does the Use of Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine in Treating Patients with Uncomplicated falciparum Malaria Reduce the Risk for Recurrent New falciparum Infection More Than Artemether-Lumefantrine?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wisdom Akpaloo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria contributes significantly to the global disease burden. The World Health Organization recommended the use of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs for treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria a decade ago in response to problems of drug resistance. This review compared two of the ACTs—Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine (DP and Artemether-Lumefantrine (AL to provide evidence which one has the ability to offer superior posttreatment prophylaxis at 28 and 42 days posttreatment. Four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database and Global Health were searched on June 2, 2013 and a total of seven randomized controlled trials conducted in sub-Sahara Africa were included. Results involving 2, 340 participants indicates that reduction in risk for recurrent new falciparum infections (RNIs was 79% at day 28 in favour of DP [RR, 0.21; 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.32, P<0.001], and at day 42 was 44% favouring DP [RR, 0.56; 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.90; P=0.02]. No significant difference was seen in treatment failure rates between the two drugs at days 28 and 42. It is concluded that use of DP offers superior posttreatment prophylaxis compared to AL in the study areas. Hence DP can help reduce malaria cases in such areas more than AL.

  3. Large-scale drivers of malaria and priority areas for prevention and control in the Brazilian Amazon region using a novel multi-pathogen geospatial model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Denis; Lima, Joanna M Tucker

    2014-11-20

    Most of the malaria burden in the Americas is concentrated in the Brazilian Amazon but a detailed spatial characterization of malaria risk has yet to be undertaken. Utilizing 2004-2008 malaria incidence data collected from six Brazilian Amazon states, large-scale spatial patterns of malaria risk were characterized with a novel Bayesian multi-pathogen geospatial model. Data included 2.4 million malaria cases spread across 3.6 million sq km. Remotely sensed variables (deforestation rate, forest cover, rainfall, dry season length, and proximity to large water bodies), socio-economic variables (rural population size, income, and literacy rate, mortality rate for children age under five, and migration patterns), and GIS variables (proximity to roads, hydro-electric dams and gold mining operations) were incorporated as covariates. Borrowing information across pathogens allowed for better spatial predictions of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, as evidenced by a ten-fold cross-validation. Malaria incidence for both Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum tended to be higher in areas with greater forest cover. Proximity to gold mining operations was another important risk factor, corroborated by a positive association between migration rates and malaria incidence. Finally, areas with a longer dry season and areas with higher average rural income tended to have higher malaria risk. Risk maps reveal striking spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk across the region, yet these mean disease risk surface maps can be misleading if uncertainty is ignored. By combining mean spatial predictions with their associated uncertainty, several sites were consistently classified as hotspots, suggesting their importance as priority areas for malaria prevention and control. This article provides several contributions. From a methodological perspective, the benefits of jointly modelling multiple pathogens for spatial predictions were illustrated. In addition, maps of mean disease risk were

  4. ABO blood group and the risk of placental malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adegnika, A.A.; Luty, A.J.F.; Grobusch, M.P.; Ramharter, M.; Yazdanbakhsh, M.; Kremsner, P.G.; Schwarz, N.G.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In malarious areas of the world, a higher proportion of the population has blood group O than in non-malarious areas. This is probably due to a survival advantage conferred either by an attenuating effect on the course of or reduction in the risk of infection by plasmodial parasites.

  5. ABO blood group and the risk of placental malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adegnika, Ayola A.; Luty, Adrian J. F.; Grobusch, Martin P.; Ramharter, Michael; Yazdanbakhsh, Maria; Kremsner, Peter G.; Schwarz, Norbert G.

    2011-01-01

    In malarious areas of the world, a higher proportion of the population has blood group O than in non-malarious areas. This is probably due to a survival advantage conferred either by an attenuating effect on the course of or reduction in the risk of infection by plasmodial parasites. Here, the

  6. Prevalence of and risk factors for malaria, filariasis, and intestinal parasites as single infections or co-infections in different settlements of Gabon, Central Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    M'bondoukwé, Noé Patrick; Kendjo, Eric; Mawili-Mboumba, Denise Patricia; Koumba Lengongo, Jeanne Vanessa; Offouga Mbouoronde, Christelle; Nkoghe, Dieudonné; Touré, Fousseyni; Bouyou-Akotet, Marielle Karine

    2018-01-30

    Malaria, filariasis, and intestinal parasitic infections (IPIs) are common and frequently overlap in developing countries. The prevalence and predictors of these infections were investigated in three different settlements (rural, semi-urban, and urban) of Gabon. During cross-sectional surveys performed from September 2013 to June 2014, 451 individuals were interviewed. In addition, blood and stool samples were analysed for the presence of Plasmodium, filarial roundworm, intestinal protozoan, and helminth infections. Intestinal parasitic infections (61.1%), including intestinal protozoa (56.7%) and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) (22.2%), predominated, whereas Plasmodium falciparum (18.8%), Loa loa (4.7%), and Mansonella perstans (1.1%) were less prevalent. Filariasis and STHs were mainly found in rural settlements, whereas a higher plasmodial infection prevalence rate was observed in the periurban area. The most common IPI was blastocystosis (48.6%), followed by ascaridiasis (13.7%), trichuriasis (11.8%), amoebiasis (9.3%), giardiasis (4.8%), and strongyloidiasis (3.7%). Hookworm was detected in one adult from rural Dienga. Adults had a higher prevalence of Blastocystis hominis and STHs, whereas Giardia duodenalis was more frequently observed among children aged below 5 years (P < 0.01). The polyparasitism rate was 41.5%, with 7.0% Plasmodium-IPIs and 1.8% Plasmodium-STH co-infections. The multivariate analysis showed that living in a suburban area, belonging to the age group of 5-15 years, having none or a secondary education, or having an open body water close to home were significant risk factors for malaria (P ≤ 0.01). For STH infections, identified risk factors were drinking untreated water and living in a rural area (P ≤ 0.04). No significant predictors were identified for IPIs and malaria-IPI co-infection. This study reports a high prevalence of IPIs and intestinal protozoa, but a low rate of malaria-IPI co-infections in the study sites

  7. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2016-01-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single...... control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction...

  8. Statistical prediction of immunity to placental malaria based on multi-assay antibody data for malarial antigens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siriwardhana, Chathura; Fang, Rui; Salanti, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Background Plasmodium falciparum infections are especially severe in pregnant women because infected erythrocytes (IE) express VAR2CSA, a ligand that binds to placental trophoblasts, causing IE to accumulate in the placenta. Resulting inflammation and pathology increases a woman’s risk of anemia...... to 28 malarial antigens and used the data to develop statistical models for predicting if a woman has sufficient immunity to prevent PM. Methods Archival plasma samples from 1377 women were screened in a bead-based multiplex assay for Ab to 17 VAR2CSA-associated antigens (full length VAR2CSA (FV2), DBL...... in the following seven statistical approaches: logistic regression full model, logistic regression reduced model, recursive partitioning, random forests, linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, and support vector machine. Results The best and simplest model proved to be the logistic...

  9. Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission in Thailand using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Soika, Valerii; Nigro, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    These slides address the use of remote sensing in a public health application. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the of remote sensing to detect larval habitats to predict current and future endemicity and identify key factors that sustain or promote transmission of malaria in a targeted geographic area (Thailand). In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, which is part of the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity; 3) implementation of a dynamic transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. !> Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of the remotely sensed parameters. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Discrete event simulations are used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors

  10. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

    2007-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

  11. Elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tajikistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondrashin, Anatoly V; Sharipov, Azizullo S; Kadamov, Dilshod S; Karimov, Saifuddin S; Gasimov, Elkhan; Baranova, Alla M; Morozova, Lola F; Stepanova, Ekaterina V; Turbabina, Natalia A; Maksimova, Maria S; Morozov, Evgeny N

    2017-05-30

    Malaria was eliminated in Tajikistan by the beginning of the 1960s. However, sporadic introduced cases of malaria occurred subsequently probably as a result of transmission from infected mosquito Anopheles flying over river the Punj from the border areas of Afghanistan. During the 1970s and 1980s local outbreaks of malaria were reported in the southern districts bordering Afghanistan. The malaria situation dramatically changed during the 1990s following armed conflict and civil unrest in the newly independent Tajikistan, which paralyzed health services including the malaria control activities and a large-scale malaria epidemic occurred with more than 400,000 malaria cases. The malaria epidemic was contained by 1999 as a result of considerable financial input from the Government and the international community. Although Plasmodium falciparum constituted only about 5% of total malaria cases, reduction of its incidence was slower than that of Plasmodium vivax. To prevent increase in P. falciparum malaria both in terms of incidence and territory, a P. falciparum elimination programme in the Republic was launched in 200, jointly supported by the Government and the Global Fund for control of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. The main activities included the use of pyrethroids for the IRS with determined periodicity, deployment of mosquito nets, impregnated with insecticides, use of larvivorous fishes as a biological larvicide, implementation of small-scale environmental management, and use of personal protection methods by population under malaria risk. The malaria surveillance system was strengthened by the use of ACD, PCD, RCD and selective use of mass blood surveys. All detected cases were timely epidemiologically investigated and treated based on the results of laboratory diagnosis. As a result, by 2009, P. falciparum malaria was eliminated from all of Tajikistan, one year ahead of the originally targeted date. Elimination of P. falciparum also contributed towards

  12. Malaria successes and challenges in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Rajesh; Rastogi, Rakesh Mani; Ortega, Leonard

    2013-12-01

    Asia ranks second to Africa in terms of malaria burden. In 19 countries of Asia, malaria is endemic and 2.31 billion people or 62% of the total population in these countries are at risk of malaria. In 2010, WHO estimated around 34.8 million cases and 45,600 deaths due to malaria in Asia. In 2011, 2.7 million cases and > 2000 deaths were reported. India, Indonesia, Myanmar and Pakistan are responsible for >85% of the reported cases (confirmed) and deaths in Asia. In last 10 yr, due to availability of donor's fund specially from Global fund, significant progress has been made by the countries in Asia in scaling-up malaria control interventions which were instrumental in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality significantly. There is a large heterogeneity in malaria epidemiology in Asia. As a result, the success in malaria control/elimination is also diverse. As compared to the data of the year 2000, out of 19 malaria endemic countries, 12 countries were able to reduce malaria incidence (microscopically confirmed cases only) by 75%. Two countries, namely Bangladesh and Malaysia are projected to reach 75% reduction by 2015 while India is projected to reach 50-75% only by 2015. The trend could not be assessed in four countries, namely Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Timor-Leste due to insufficient consistent data. Numerous key challenges need to be addressed to sustain the gains and eliminate malaria in most parts of Asia. Some of these are to control the spread of resistance in Plasmodium falciparum to artemisinin, control of outdoor transmission, control of vivax malaria and ensuring universal coverage of key interventions. Asia has the potential to influence the malaria epidemiology all over the world as well as to support the global efforts in controlling and eliminating malaria through production of quality-assured ACTs, RDTs and long-lasting insecticidal nets.

  13. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  14. Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

    2015-04-01

    This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Malaria chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Peter; Ward, Stephen

    2006-01-01

    Most malaria control strategies today depend on safe and effective drugs, as they have done for decades. But sensitivity to chloroquine, hitherto the workhorse of malaria chemotherapy, has rapidly declined throughout the tropics since the 1980s, and this drug is now useless in many high-transmission areas. New options for resource-constrained governments are few, and there is growing evidence that the burden from malaria has been increasing, as has malaria mortality in Africa. In this chapter, we have tried to outline the main pharmacological properties of current drugs, and their therapeutic uses and limitations. We have summarised the ways in which these drugs are employed, both in the formal health sector and in self-medication. We have briefly touched on the limitations of current drug development, but have tried to pick out a few promising drugs that are under development. Given that Plasmodium falciparum is the organism that kills, and that has developed multi-drug resistance, we have tended to focus upon it. Similarly, given that around 90% of global mortality from malaria occurs in Africa, there is the tendency to dwell on this continent. We give no apology for placing our emphasis upon the use of antimalarial drugs in endemic populations rather than their use for prophylaxis in travellers.

  16. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    the expectations hypothesis (EH) out-ofsample: the forecasts do not add economic value compared to using the average historical excess return as an EH-consistent estimate of constant risk premia. We show that in general statistical signicance does not necessarily translate into economic signicance because EH...... deviations mainly matter at short horizons and standard predictability metrics are not compatible with common measures of economic value. Overall, the EH remains the benchmark for investment decisions and should be considered an economic prior in models of bond risk premia.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for bond investors. We show that ane term structure models (ATSMs) estimated by jointly tting yields and bond excess returns capture this predictive information otherwise hidden...

  17. The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

    Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

  18. Exploiting the behaviour of wild malaria vectors to achieve high infection with fungal biocontrol agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Control of mosquitoes that transmit malaria has been the mainstay in the fight against the disease, but alternative methods are required in view of emerging insecticide resistance. Entomopathogenic fungi are candidate alternatives, but to date, few trials have translated the use of these agents to field-based evaluations of their actual impact on mosquito survival and malaria risk. Mineral oil-formulations of the entomopathogenic fungi Metarhizium anisopliae and Beauveria bassiana were applied using five different techniques that each exploited the behaviour of malaria mosquitoes when entering, host-seeking or resting in experimental huts in a malaria endemic area of rural Tanzania. Results Survival of mosquitoes was reduced by 39-57% relative to controls after forcing upward house-entry of mosquitoes through fungus treated baffles attached to the eaves or after application of fungus-treated surfaces around an occupied bed net (bed net strip design). Moreover, 68 to 76% of the treatment mosquitoes showed fungal growth and thus had sufficient contact with fungus treated surfaces. A population dynamic model of malaria-mosquito interactions shows that these infection rates reduce malaria transmission by 75-80% due to the effect of fungal infection on adult mortality alone. The model also demonstrated that even if a high proportion of the mosquitoes exhibits outdoor biting behaviour, malaria transmission was still significantly reduced. Conclusions Entomopathogenic fungi strongly affect mosquito survival and have a high predicted impact on malaria transmission. These entomopathogens represent a viable alternative for malaria control, especially if they are used as part of an integrated vector management strategy. PMID:22449130

  19. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-09-01

    National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

  20. Predicting disease risk using bootstrap ranking and classification algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ohad Manor

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS are widely used to search for genetic loci that underlie human disease. Another goal is to predict disease risk for different individuals given their genetic sequence. Such predictions could either be used as a "black box" in order to promote changes in life-style and screening for early diagnosis, or as a model that can be studied to better understand the mechanism of the disease. Current methods for risk prediction typically rank single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs by the p-value of their association with the disease, and use the top-associated SNPs as input to a classification algorithm. However, the predictive power of such methods is relatively poor. To improve the predictive power, we devised BootRank, which uses bootstrapping in order to obtain a robust prioritization of SNPs for use in predictive models. We show that BootRank improves the ability to predict disease risk of unseen individuals in the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC data and results in a more robust set of SNPs and a larger number of enriched pathways being associated with the different diseases. Finally, we show that combining BootRank with seven different classification algorithms improves performance compared to previous studies that used the WTCCC data. Notably, diseases for which BootRank results in the largest improvements were recently shown to have more heritability than previously thought, likely due to contributions from variants with low minimum allele frequency (MAF, suggesting that BootRank can be beneficial in cases where SNPs affecting the disease are poorly tagged or have low MAF. Overall, our results show that improving disease risk prediction from genotypic information may be a tangible goal, with potential implications for personalized disease screening and treatment.

  1. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency and the risk of malaria: A meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fengmei; Zhang, Juan; Pu, Yuepu

    2017-10-01

    This study is designed to perform a meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA) to investigate whether people with G6PD deficiency suffered less malarial infection. We searched from PubMed, Science Direct, Springer Link, CNKI, and Wan Fang databases for case-control study, cohort study or cross section study until April 2017. TSA was used to determine the state of evidence and calculate the required sample size. Eight case-control studies and five cross-sectional studies (30,683participants) were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with normal control group, we found significant protection from severe malaria (OR 0.644, 95% CI [0.493-0.842]; P=0.001) among people with decreasing G6PD activity. People with variations of G6PD gene at nucleotide 202(G6PD A-) were also found to be associated with resistance on severe malaria pooled (OR 0.851, 95% CI [0.779-0.930]; P =0.0001). Sex-stratified test suggested that protection of severe malaria is conferred to both G6PD A-males and heterozygous females (with a single copy of the variant). In conclusion, our study found a significant protection from severe malaria among G6PD deficient people compared to the

  2. Estimated risk of placental infection and low birthweight attributable to Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa in 2010: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, Patrick G. T.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Garske, Tini; Menendez, Clara; Ghani, Azra C.

    2014-01-01

    Plasmodium falciparum infection during pregnancy leads to adverse outcomes including low birthweight; however, contemporary estimates of the potential burden of malaria in pregnancy in Africa (in the absence of interventions) are poor. We aimed to estimate the need to protect pregnant women from

  3. Investigation on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Physiological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan-Hua Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide. Early prediction of CVD is urgently important for timely prevention and treatment. Incorporation or modification of new risk factors that have an additional independent prognostic value of existing prediction models is widely used for improving the performance of the prediction models. This paper is to investigate the physiological parameters that are used as risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular events, as well as summarizing the current status on the medical devices for physiological tests and discuss the potential implications for promoting CVD prevention and treatment in the future. The results show that measures extracted from blood pressure, electrocardiogram, arterial stiffness, ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI, and blood glucose carry valuable information for the prediction of both long-term and near-term cardiovascular risk. However, the predictive values should be further validated by more comprehensive measures. Meanwhile, advancing unobtrusive technologies and wireless communication technologies allow on-site detection of the physiological information remotely in an out-of-hospital setting in real-time. In addition with computer modeling technologies and information fusion. It may allow for personalized, quantitative, and real-time assessment of sudden CVD events.

  4. Machine learning application in online lending risk prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Xiaojiao

    2017-01-01

    Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in applying big data technology in building risk model. In this manuscript, data with various format and size were collected from public website, third-parties and assembled with client's loan application information data. Ensemble machine learning models, random fo...

  5. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    OpenAIRE

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima; Maria Amélia Sayeg Campos Porto; Arnaldo Prata Barbosa; Antonio José Ledo Alves da Cunha

    2007-01-01

    Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetri...

  6. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  7. Discriminating malaria from dengue fever in endemic areas: clinical and biological criteria, prognostic score and utility of the C-reactive protein: a retrospective matched-pair study in French Guiana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loïc Epelboin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue and malaria are two major public health concerns in tropical settings. Although the pathogeneses of these two arthropod-borne diseases differ, their clinical and biological presentations are unspecific. During dengue epidemics, several hundred patients with fever and diffuse pain are weekly admitted at the emergency room. It is difficult to discriminate them from patients presenting malaria attacks. Furthermore, it may be impossible to provide a parasitological microscopic examination for all patients. This study aimed to establish a diagnostic algorithm for communities where dengue fever and malaria occur at some frequency in adults. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A sub-study using the control groups of a case-control study in French Guiana--originally designed to compare dengue and malaria co-infected cases to single infected cases--was performed between 2004 and 2010. In brief, 208 patients with malaria matched to 208 patients with dengue fever were compared in the present study. A predictive score of malaria versus dengue was established using .632 bootstrap procedures. Multivariate analysis showed that male gender, age, tachycardia, anemia, thrombocytopenia, and CRP>5 mg/l were independently associated with malaria. The predictive score using those variables had an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82-0.89, and the CRP was the preponderant predictive factor. The sensitivity and specificity of CRP>5 mg/L to discriminate malaria from dengue were of 0.995 (95%CI: 0.991-1 and 0.35 (95%CI 0.32-0.39, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical and biological score performed relatively well for discriminating cases of dengue versus malaria. Moreover, using only the CRP level turned to be a useful biomarker to discriminate feverish patients at low risk of malaria in an area where both infections exist. It would avoid more than 33% of unnecessary parasitological examinations with a very low risk of missing a malaria attack.

  8. THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Luigi Guiso; Monica Paiella

    2005-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers� decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways co...

  9. The epidemiology of postpartum malaria: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boel, Machteld E.; Rijken, Marcus J.; Brabin, Bernard J.; Nosten, François; McGready, Rose

    2012-01-01

    Pregnant women are more susceptible to malaria than their non-pregnant counterparts. Less is known about the risk of malaria in the postpartum period. The epidemiology of postpartum malaria was systematically reviewed. Eleven articles fitted the inclusion criteria. Of the 10 studies that compared

  10. Malaria in pregnancy in Nigeria: Analysis of characteristics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria in pregnancy poses a very serious risk to both the woman and her unborn child. Many factors may moderate the occurrence of malaria. This study seeks to assess the intrinsic factors associated with malaria in pregnancy.This was a retrospective study of 880 women who attended antenatal clinic at Olabisi Onabanjo ...

  11. Knowledge and Perceptions on Malaria and Its Association with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Malaria remains the major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in Kenya. About 70 percent of the population is at risk of infection, and roughly 34,000 young children die of malaria-related causes annually. Objective: To investigate the knowledge and perceptions of the local people for malaria in ...

  12. Odyssean malaria outbreaks in Gauteng Province, South Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Odyssean malaria cases are inevitable in South Africa, given the volume of road, rail and air traffic from malaria risk areas into Gauteng and other non-endemic provinces. It is likely that many cases are missed, owing to the rare and sporadic nature of the condition. Malaria should always be kept in mind as a cause of ...

  13. Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

  14. Prediction of postpartum blood transfusion – risk factors and recurrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wikkelsø, Anne J; Hjortøe, Sofie; Gerds, Thomas A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim was to find clinically useful risk factors for postpartum transfusion and to assess the joint predictive value in a population of women with a first and second delivery. METHODS: All Danish women with a first and second delivery from January 2001 to September 2009 who gave birt...

  15. Predicting the risk of mineral deficiencies in grazing animals

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    lambs to mineral supplements can be used to predict risks of deficiency will be demonstrated. In both cases .... between body size and appetite, the onset of lactation or the feeding of ... possible importance of this in the aetiology of milk fever.

  16. Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Petley

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance. Edited by Theo Van Asch, Jordi Corominas, Stefan Greiving, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Sterlacchini Simone. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2014. xi + 413 pp. US$ 129.00, € 90.00, € 104.00. Also available as an e-book. ISBN 978-94-007-6768-3.

  17. Predicting disease risks from highly imbalanced data using random forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chakraborty Sounak

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We present a method utilizing Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP dataset for predicting disease risk of individuals based on their medical diagnosis history. The presented methodology may be incorporated in a variety of applications such as risk management, tailored health communication and decision support systems in healthcare. Methods We employed the National Inpatient Sample (NIS data, which is publicly available through Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP, to train random forest classifiers for disease prediction. Since the HCUP data is highly imbalanced, we employed an ensemble learning approach based on repeated random sub-sampling. This technique divides the training data into multiple sub-samples, while ensuring that each sub-sample is fully balanced. We compared the performance of support vector machine (SVM, bagging, boosting and RF to predict the risk of eight chronic diseases. Results We predicted eight disease categories. Overall, the RF ensemble learning method outperformed SVM, bagging and boosting in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC. In addition, RF has the advantage of computing the importance of each variable in the classification process. Conclusions In combining repeated random sub-sampling with RF, we were able to overcome the class imbalance problem and achieve promising results. Using the national HCUP data set, we predicted eight disease categories with an average AUC of 88.79%.

  18. The role of risk propensity in predicting self-employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieß, Christiane; Biemann, Torsten

    2014-09-01

    This study aims to untangle the role of risk propensity as a predictor of self-employment entry and self-employment survival. More specifically, it examines whether the potentially positive effect of risk propensity on the decision to become self-employed turns curvilinear when it comes to the survival of the business. Building on a longitudinal sample of 4,973 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we used event history analyses to evaluate the influence of risk propensity on self-employment over a 7-year time period. Results indicated that whereas high levels of risk propensity positively predicted the decision to become self-employed, the relationship between risk propensity and self-employment survival followed an inverted U-shaped curve. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Kompliceret malaria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønn, A M; Bygbjerg, Ib Christian; Jacobsen, E

    1989-01-01

    An increasing number of cases of malaria, imported to Denmark, are caused by Plasmodium falciparum and severe and complicated cases are more often seen. In the Department of Infectious Diseases, Rigshospitalet, 23 out of 32 cases, hospitalized from 1.1-30.6.1988, i.e. 72%, were caused by P...

  20. A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Smith, David L; Guerra, Carlos A; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Johnston, Geoffrey L; Tatem, Andrew J; Hay, Simon I

    2011-12-20

    Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and

  1. A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gething Peter W

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR and the basic reproductive number (PfR. Methods Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. Results An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. Conclusions The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The

  2. Rural households at risk of malaria did not own sufficient insecticide treated nets at Dabat HDSS site: evidence from a cross sectional re-census

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kindie Fentahun Muchie

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is the leading cause of disease burden across the world, especially in African countries. Ethiopia has designed a five year (2011–2015 plan to cover 100% of the households in malarious areas with one insecticide treated net (ITN for every two persons, and to raise consistent ITN utilization to at least 80%. However, evidence on ownership of ITN among malarious rural households in northwest Ethiopia is quite limited. Hence, the present study aimed at assessing ownership of ITN and associated factors among rural households at risk of malaria at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site, northwest Ethiopia. Methods A cross sectional re-census was carried out in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site during peak malaria seasons from October to December, 2014. Data for 15,088 households at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site were used for the analysis. Descriptive measures and binary logistic regression were carried out. Results Among those who owned at least one ITN, 53.4% were living at an altitude >2500 m above sea level. However, out of households living at an altitude <2000 m above sea level, 15.8% (95% CI 14.4%, 17.3% owned ITN at an average of 4.3 ± 2.1 persons per ITN. Of these, 69.5% (95% CI 64.7%, 74.1% used the ITN. Among utilizing households at malarious areas, 23.7% prioritized pregnant women and 31.4% children to use ITN. The availability of radio receiver/mobile (AOR 1.60, 95%CI 1.08, 2.35 and secondary/above educational status of household member (AOR 1.54, 95%CI 1.19, 2.04 were predictors of ownership of ITN. Conclusion Rural households at risk of malaria did not own a sufficient number of ITN though the utilization is promising. Moreover, prioritizing children and pregnant women to sleep under ITN remains public health problems. Programmers, partners and implementers should consider tailored intervention strategy stratified by altitude in distributing

  3. Predicting risk of violence through a self-appraisal questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Andreu-Rodríguez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ is a self-report that predicts the risk of violence and recidivism and provides relevant information about treatment needs for incarcerated populations. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the concurrent and predictive validity of this self-report in Spanish offenders. The SAQ was administered to 276 offenders recruited from several prisons in Madrid (Spain. SAQ total scores presented high levels of internal consistency (alpha = .92. Correlations of the instrument with violence risk instruments were statistically significant and showed a moderate magnitude, indicating a reasonable degree of concurrent validity. The ROC analysis carried out on the SAQ total score revealed an AUC of .80, showing acceptable accuracy discriminating between violent and nonviolent recidivist groups. It is concluded that the SAQ total score is a reliable and valid measure to estimate violence and recidivism risk in Spanish offenders.

  4. Plasmodium falciparum malaria and antimalarial interventions in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    The recent increases in malaria mortality rates in Africa ... the world's population at risk of malaria are in Africa. (WHO, 2000). ... understood to be both a disease of poverty and a cause ... anaemia and 8 to 14% of low birth weight in areas with.

  5. Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengne, Andre Pascal; Masconi, Katya; Mbanya, Vivian Nchanchou; Lekoubou, Alain; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin Basile; Matsha, Tandi E

    2014-02-01

    Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.

  6. A Reduced Risk of Infection with Plasmodium vivax and Clinical Protection against Malaria Are Associated with Antibodies against the N Terminus but Not the C Terminus of Merozoite Surface Protein 1†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Paulo Afonso; Piovesan Alves, Fabiana; Fernandez-Becerra, Carmen; Pein, Oliver; Rodrigues Santos, Neida; Pereira da Silva, Luiz Hildebrando; Plessman Camargo, Erney; del Portillo, Hernando A.

    2006-01-01

    Progress towards the development of a malaria vaccine against Plasmodium vivax, the most widely distributed human malaria parasite, will require a better understanding of the immune responses that confer clinical protection to patients in regions where malaria is endemic. The occurrence of clinical protection in P. vivax malaria in Brazil was first reported among residents of the riverine community of Portuchuelo, in Rondônia, western Amazon. We thus analyzed immune sera from this same human population to determine if naturally acquired humoral immune responses against the merozoite surface protein 1 of P. vivax, PvMSP1, could be associated with reduced risk of infection and/or clinical protection. Our results demonstrated that this association could be established with anti-PvMSP1 antibodies predominantly of the immunoglobulin G3 subclass directed against the N terminus but not against the C terminus, in spite of the latter being more immunogenic and capable of natural boosting. This is the first report of a prospective study of P. vivax malaria demonstrating an association of reduced risk of infection and clinical protection with antibodies against an antigen of this parasite. PMID:16622209

  7. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-08-15

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  9. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  10. Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Hay, Simon I

    2010-04-01

    Risk maps estimating the spatial distribution of infectious diseases are required to guide public health policy from local to global scales. The advent of model-based geostatistics (MBG) has allowed these maps to be generated in a formal statistical framework, providing robust metrics of map uncertainty that enhances their utility for decision-makers. In many settings, decision-makers require spatially aggregated measures over large regions such as the mean prevalence within a country or administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches provide suitable metrics of local uncertainty--the fidelity of predictions at each mapped pixel--but have not been adapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authors present a new efficient approximating algorithm that can generate for the first time the necessary joint simulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implemented in conjunction with an established model for P. falciparum allowing robust estimates of mean prevalence at any specified level of spatial aggregation. The model is used to provide estimates of national populations at risk under three policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.

  11. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

    2011-01-10

    Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  12. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  13. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  14. Modeling the influence of local environmental factors on malaria transmission in Benin and its implications for cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottrell, Gilles; Kouwaye, Bienvenue; Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

    2012-01-01

    Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission--even at a very local scale--is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors.As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages.This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics.

  15. Machine learning derived risk prediction of anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Keating, Brendan J; Hakonarson, Hakon

    2016-01-20

    Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex psychiatric disease with a moderate to strong genetic contribution. In addition to conventional genome wide association (GWA) studies, researchers have been using machine learning methods in conjunction with genomic data to predict risk of diseases in which genetics play an important role. In this study, we collected whole genome genotyping data on 3940 AN cases and 9266 controls from the Genetic Consortium for Anorexia Nervosa (GCAN), the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3), Price Foundation Collaborative Group and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), and applied machine learning methods for predicting AN disease risk. The prediction performance is measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), indicating how well the model distinguishes cases from unaffected control subjects. Logistic regression model with the lasso penalty technique generated an AUC of 0.693, while Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Trees reached AUC's of 0.691 and 0.623, respectively. Using different sample sizes, our results suggest that larger datasets are required to optimize the machine learning models and achieve higher AUC values. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess AN risk based on genome wide genotype level data. Future integration of genomic, environmental and family-based information is likely to improve the AN risk evaluation process, eventually benefitting AN patients and families in the clinical setting.

  16. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetric and neonatal factors; risk estimationwas based on the odds ratio (95% confidence interval; a bi-variantmultivariate regression logistic analysis was applied to variables forp < 0.1. Results: Of 818 babies born during the studied period, 94(11% had jaundice prior to hospital discharge. Phototherapy was usedon 69 (73% patients. Predictive factors for severity were multiparity;prolonged rupture of membranes, dystocia, cephalohematoma, a lowApgar score, prematurity and small-for-date babies. Following birth,breastfeeding, sepsis, Rh incompatibility, and jaundice presentingbefore the third day of life were associated with an increased risk ofhyperbilirubinemia and the need for therapy. Conclusion: Other thanthose characteristics that are singly associated with phototherapy,we concluded that multiparity, presumed neonatal asphyxia, low birthweight and infection are the main predictive factors leading to moderateand severe jaundice in newborn infants in our neonatal unit.

  17. A risk prediction model for xerostomia: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Alessandro; Nordio, Francesco; Gohel, Anita

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the prevalence of xerostomia in dental patients and built a xerostomia risk prediction model by incorporating a wide range of risk factors. Socio-demographic data, past medical history, self-reported dry mouth and related symptoms were collected retrospectively from January 2010 to September 2013 for all new dental patients. A logistic regression framework was used to build a risk prediction model for xerostomia. External validation was performed using an independent data set to test the prediction power. A total of 12 682 patients were included in this analysis (54.3%, females). Xerostomia was reported by 12.2% of patients. The proportion of people reporting xerostomia was higher among those who were taking more medications (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.13) or recreational drug users (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Rheumatic diseases (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.88-2.51), psychiatric diseases (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.05-2.68), eating disorders (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.55-3.36) and radiotherapy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.43-2.80) were good predictors of xerostomia. For the test model performance, the ROC-AUC was 0.816 and in the external validation sample, the ROC-AUC was 0.799. The xerostomia risk prediction model had high accuracy and discriminated between high- and low-risk individuals. Clinicians could use this model to identify the classes of medications and systemic diseases associated with xerostomia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

  19. Heritability of malaria in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret J Mackinnon

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available While many individual genes have been identified that confer protection against malaria, the overall impact of host genetics on malarial risk remains unknown.We have used pedigree-based genetic variance component analysis to determine the relative contributions of genetic and other factors to the variability in incidence of malaria and other infectious diseases in two cohorts of children living on the coast of Kenya. In the first, we monitored the incidence of mild clinical malaria and other febrile diseases through active surveillance of 640 children 10 y old or younger, living in 77 different households for an average of 2.7 y. In the second, we recorded hospital admissions with malaria and other infectious diseases in a birth cohort of 2,914 children for an average of 4.1 y. Mean annual incidence rates for mild and hospital-admitted malaria were 1.6 and 0.054 episodes per person per year, respectively. Twenty-four percent and 25% of the total variation in these outcomes was explained by additively acting host genes, and household explained a further 29% and 14%, respectively. The haemoglobin S gene explained only 2% of the total variation. For nonmalarial infections, additive genetics explained 39% and 13% of the variability in fevers and hospital-admitted infections, while household explained a further 9% and 30%, respectively.Genetic and unidentified household factors each accounted for around one quarter of the total variability in malaria incidence in our study population. The genetic effect was well beyond that explained by the anticipated effects of the haemoglobinopathies alone, suggesting the existence of many protective genes, each individually resulting in small population effects. While studying these genes may well provide insights into pathogenesis and resistance in human malaria, identifying and tackling the household effects must be the more efficient route to reducing the burden of disease in malaria-endemic areas.

  20. Heritability of Malaria in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While many individual genes have been identified that confer protection against malaria, the overall impact of host genetics on malarial risk remains unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have used pedigree-based genetic variance component analysis to determine the relative contributions of genetic and other factors to the variability in incidence of malaria and other infectious diseases in two cohorts of children living on the coast of Kenya. In the first, we monitored the incidence of mild clinical malaria and other febrile diseases through active surveillance of 640 children 10 y old or younger, living in 77 different households for an average of 2.7 y. In the second, we recorded hospital admissions with malaria and other infectious diseases in a birth cohort of 2,914 children for an average of 4.1 y. Mean annual incidence rates for mild and hospital-admitted malaria were 1.6 and 0.054 episodes per person per year, respectively. Twenty-four percent and 25% of the total variation in these outcomes was explained by additively acting host genes, and household explained a further 29% and 14%, respectively. The haemoglobin S gene explained only 2% of the total variation. For nonmalarial infections, additive genetics explained 39% and 13% of the variability in fevers and hospital-admitted infections, while household explained a further 9% and 30%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Genetic and unidentified household factors each accounted for around one quarter of the total variability in malaria incidence in our study population. The genetic effect was well beyond that explained by the anticipated effects of the haemoglobinopathies alone, suggesting the existence of many protective genes, each individually resulting in small population effects. While studying these genes may well provide insights into pathogenesis and resistance in human malaria, identifying and tackling the household effects must be the more efficient route to reducing the burden

  1. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

  3. Targeting imported malaria through social networks: a potential strategy for malaria elimination in Swaziland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koita, Kadiatou; Novotny, Joseph; Kunene, Simon; Zulu, Zulizile; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Gandhi, Monica; Gosling, Roland

    2013-06-27

    Swaziland has made great progress towards its goal of malaria elimination by 2015. However, malaria importation from neighbouring high-endemic Mozambique through Swaziland's eastern border remains a major factor that could prevent elimination from being achieved. In order to reach elimination, Swaziland must rapidly identify and treat imported malaria cases before onward transmission occurs. A nationwide formative assessment was conducted over eight weeks to determine if the imported cases of malaria identified by the Swaziland National Malaria Control Programme could be linked to broader social networks and to explore methods to access these networks. Using a structured format, interviews were carried out with malaria surveillance agents (6), health providers (10), previously identified imported malaria cases (19) and people belonging to the networks identified through these interviews (25). Most imported malaria cases were Mozambicans (63%, 12/19) making a living in Swaziland and sustaining their families in Mozambique. The majority of imported cases (73%, 14/19) were labourers and self-employed contractors who travelled frequently to Mozambique to visit their families and conduct business. Social networks of imported cases with similar travel patterns were identified through these interviews. Nearly all imported cases (89%, 17/19) were willing to share contact information to enable network members to be interviewed. Interviews of network members and key informants revealed common congregation points, such as the urban market places in Manzini and Malkerns, as well as certain bus stations, where people with similar travel patterns and malaria risk behaviours could be located and tested for malaria. This study demonstrated that imported cases of malaria belonged to networks of people with similar travel patterns. This study may provide novel methods for screening high-risk groups of travellers using both snowball sampling and time-location sampling of networks to

  4. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    electrocardiograms from 173 529 primary care patients aged 50-90 years were collected during 2001-11. The Framingham formula was used for heart rate-correction of the QT interval. Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were retrieved from administrative registries. During a median follow-up period of 6......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...

  5. Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including

  6. Nonparametric predictive inference for combined competing risks data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani; Coolen, Frank P.A.

    2014-01-01

    The nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) approach for competing risks data has recently been presented, in particular addressing the question due to which of the competing risks the next unit will fail, and also considering the effects of unobserved, re-defined, unknown or removed competing risks. In this paper, we introduce how the NPI approach can be used to deal with situations where units are not all at risk from all competing risks. This may typically occur if one combines information from multiple samples, which can, e.g. be related to further aspects of units that define the samples or groups to which the units belong or to different applications where the circumstances under which the units operate can vary. We study the effect of combining the additional information from these multiple samples, so effectively borrowing information on specific competing risks from other units, on the inferences. Such combination of information can be relevant to competing risks scenarios in a variety of application areas, including engineering and medical studies

  7. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  10. Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

    2018-04-24

    Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

  11. Predictions of space radiation fatality risk for exploration missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A; To, Khiet; Cacao, Eliedonna

    2017-05-01

    In this paper we describe revisions to the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model focusing on updates to probability distribution functions (PDF) representing the uncertainties in the radiation quality factor (QF) model parameters and the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF). We integrate recent heavy ion data on liver, colorectal, intestinal, lung, and Harderian gland tumors with other data from fission neutron experiments into the model analysis. In an earlier work we introduced distinct QFs for leukemia and solid cancer risk predictions, and here we consider liver cancer risks separately because of the higher RBE's reported in mouse experiments compared to other tumors types, and distinct risk factors for liver cancer for astronauts compared to the U.S. The revised model is used to make predictions of fatal cancer and circulatory disease risks for 1-year deep space and International Space Station (ISS) missions, and a 940 day Mars mission. We analyzed the contribution of the various model parameter uncertainties to the overall uncertainty, which shows that the uncertainties in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors at high LET due to statistical uncertainties and differences across tissue types and mouse strains are the dominant uncertainty. NASA's exposure limits are approached or exceeded for each mission scenario considered. Two main conclusions are made: 1) Reducing the current estimate of about a 3-fold uncertainty to a 2-fold or lower uncertainty will require much more expansive animal carcinogenesis studies in order to reduce statistical uncertainties and understand tissue, sex and genetic variations. 2) Alternative model assumptions such as non-targeted effects, increased tumor lethality and decreased latency at high LET, and non-cancer mortality risks from circulatory diseases could significantly increase risk estimates to several times higher than the NASA limits. Copyright © 2017 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR

  12. Malaria in Brazil: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira-Ferreira, Joseli; Lacerda, Marcus V G; Brasil, Patrícia; Ladislau, José L B; Tauil, Pedro L; Daniel-Ribeiro, Cláudio Tadeu

    2010-04-30

    Brazilian populations have also been providing important information on whether immune responses specific to these antigens are generated in natural infections and their immunogenic potential as vaccine candidates. The present difficulties in reducing economic and social risk factors that determine the incidence of malaria in the Amazon Region render impracticable its elimination in the region. As a result, a malaria-integrated control effort--as a joint action on the part of the government and the population--directed towards the elimination or reduction of the risks of death or illness, is the direction adopted by the Brazilian government in the fight against the disease.

  13. Malaria in Brazil: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brasil Patrícia

    2010-04-01

    malaria vaccine candidates in Brazilian populations have also been providing important information on whether immune responses specific to these antigens are generated in natural infections and their immunogenic potential as vaccine candidates. The present difficulties in reducing economic and social risk factors that determine the incidence of malaria in the Amazon Region render impracticable its elimination in the region. As a result, a malaria-integrated control effort - as a joint action on the part of the government and the population - directed towards the elimination or reduction of the risks of death or illness, is the direction adopted by the Brazilian government in the fight against the disease.

  14. Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio Valdano

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the setup of targeted intervention strategies.

  15. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  16. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    2016-01-01

    evaluation. More specifically, the model mostly generates positive (negative) economic value during times of high (low) macroeconomic uncertainty. Overall, the expectations hypothesis remains a useful benchmark for investment decisions in bond markets, especially in low uncertainty states.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for investors. We propose a novel estimation strategy for affine term structure models that jointly fits yields and bond excess returns, thereby capturing predictive information...... otherwise hidden to standard estimations. The model predicts excess returns with high regression R2s and high forecast accuracy but cannot outperform the expectations hypothesis out-of-sample in terms of economic value, showing a general contrast between statistical and economic metrics of forecast...

  17. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  18. Predictive Modelling Risk Calculators and the Non Dialysis Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robins, Jennifer; Katz, Ivor

    2013-04-16

    This guideline will review the current prediction models and survival/mortality scores available for decision making in patients with advanced kidney disease who are being considered for a non-dialysis treatment pathway. Risk prediction is gaining increasing attention with emerging literature suggesting improved patient outcomes through individualised risk prediction (1). Predictive models help inform the nephrologist and the renal palliative care specialists in their discussions with patients and families about suitability or otherwise of dialysis. Clinical decision making in the care of end stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients on a non-dialysis treatment pathway is currently governed by several observational trials (3). Despite the paucity of evidence based medicine in this field, it is becoming evident that the survival advantages associated with renal replacement therapy in these often elderly patients with multiple co-morbidities and limited functional status may be negated by loss of quality of life (7) (6), further functional decline (5, 8), increased complications and hospitalisations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  19. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  20. Predicting risk behaviors: development and validation of a diagnostic scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, K; Cameron, K A; McKeon, J K; Berkowitz, J M

    1996-01-01

    The goal of this study was to develop and validate the Risk Behavior Diagnosis (RBD) Scale for use by health care providers and practitioners interested in promoting healthy behaviors. Theoretically guided by the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM; a fear appeal theory), the RBD scale was designed to work in conjunction with an easy-to-use formula to determine which types of health risk messages would be most appropriate for a given individual or audience. Because some health risk messages promote behavior change and others backfire, this type of scale offers guidance to practitioners on how to develop the best persuasive message possible to motivate healthy behaviors. The results of the study demonstrate the RBD scale to have a high degree of content, construct, and predictive validity. Specific examples and practical suggestions are offered to facilitate use of the scale for health practitioners.

  1. Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Ting-Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon

    2017-06-01

    Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

  2. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  3. Prediction of tension-type headache risk in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Stepanchenko

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Tension-type headache is the actual problem of adolescent neurology, which is associated with the prevalence of the disease, the tendency of the disease to the chronic course and a negative impact on performance in education, work capacity and quality of patients’ life. The aim. To develop a method for prediction of tension-type headache occurrence in adolescents. Materials and methods. 2342 adolescent boys and girls at the age of 13-17 years in schools of Kharkiv were examined. We used questionnaire to identify the headache. A group of adolescents with tension-type headache - 1430 people (61.1% was selected. The control group included 246 healthy adolescents. Possible risk factors for tension-type headache formation were divided into 4 groups: genetic, biomedical, psychosocial and social. Mathematical prediction of tension-type headache risk in adolescents was performed using the method of intensive indicators normalization of E.N. Shigan, which was based on probabilistic Bayesian’s method. The result was presented in the form of prognostic coefficients. Results. The most informative risk factors for tension-type headache development were the diseases, from which the teenager suffered after 1 year (sleep disorders, gastrointestinal diseases, autonomic disorders in the family history, traumatic brain injury, physical inactivity, poor adaptation of the patient in the kindergarten and school, stresses. Diagnostic scale has been developed to predict the risk of tension-type headache. It includes 23 prognostic factors with their gradation and meaning of integrated risk indicator, depending on individual factor strength influence. The risk of tension-type headache development ranged from 25,27 to 81,43 values of prognostic coefficient (low probability (25,27-43,99, the average probability (43,99-62,71 and high probability (62,71- 81,43. Conclusion. The study of tension-type headache risk factors, which were obtained by using an assessed and

  4. Intermittent Preventive Therapy for Malaria During Pregnancy Using 2 vs 3 or More Doses of Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine and Risk of Low Birth Weight in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayentao, Kassoum; Garner, Paul; van Eijk, Anne Maria; Naidoo, Inbarani; Roper, Cally; Mulokozi, Abdunoor; MacArthur, John R.; Luntamo, Mari; Ashorn, Per; Doumbo, Ogobara K.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.

    2015-01-01

    Importance Intermittent preventive therapy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine to control malaria during pregnancy is used in 37 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and 31 of those countries use the standard 2-dose regimen. However, 2 doses may not provide protection during the last 4 to 10 weeks of pregnancy, a pivotal period for fetal weight gain. Objective To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of trials to determine whether regimens containing 3 or more doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for intermittent preventive therapy during pregnancy are associated with a higher birth weight or lower risk of low birth weight (LBW) (<2500 g) than standard 2-dose regimens. Data Sources and Study Selection ISI Web of Knowledge, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PubMed, LILACS, the Malaria in Pregnancy Library, Cochrane CENTRAL, and trial registries from their inception to December 2012, without language restriction. Eligible studies included randomized and quasi-randomized trials of intermittent preventive therapy during pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine monotherapy. Data Extraction Data were independently abstracted by 2 investigators. Relative risk (RR), mean differences, and 95% CIs were calculated with random-effects models. Results Of 241 screened studies, 7 trials of 6281 pregnancies were included. The median birth weight in the 2-dose group was 2870 g (range, 2722–3239 g) and on average 56 g higher (95% CI, 29–83 g; I2=0%) in the ≥3-dose group. Three or more doses were associated with fewer LBW births (RR,0.80; 95% CI, 0.69–0.94; I2=0%), with a median LBW risk per 1000 women in the 2-dose group (assumed control group risk) of 167 per 1000 vs 134 per 1000 in the ≥3-dose group (absolute risk reduction, 33 per 1000 [95% CI, 10–52]; number needed to treat=31). The association was consistent across a wide range of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance (0% to 96% dihydropteroate-synthase K540E mutations). There was no evidence of small-study bias. The ≥3-dose group had

  5. Investigations of the Anopheline (Diptera: Culicidae fauna from three areas belonging to the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve in order to evaluate the risk of malaria re-emergence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FALCUTA Elena

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The survey focused on the comparative analyses of the anopheline fauna belonging to the maculipennis group between three areas of the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, two of them situated near theRazim-Sinoe lagoonal complex and one belonging to the fluvial delta. The study that was carried out during 2006 and 2007 intended to establish the composition of the anopheline fauna as well as the longevity of the various species in order to evaluate the risk of malaria re-emergence. A number of 2437 mosquitoes, belonging to Anopheles maculipennis group were collected. The presence of the former vector species was pointed up: Anopheles atroparvus, Anophelesmesseae and Anopheles maculipennis sensu stricto. The investigations of the number of egg batches laid by a female have shown the physiological age of the respective female and namely if the female could infect or not the humans.

  6. Malaria Cases in the U.S. Reach 40-Year High: Information and Guidance for Clinicians

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast is an overview of the Clinician Outreach and Communication Activity (COCA) Call: Malaria Cases in the U.S. Reach 40-Year High: Information and Guidance for Clinicians. The number of malaria cases reported in the United States in 2011 was the largest since 1971, representing a 14 percent increase from 2010 and a 48 percent increase from 2008. A CDC subject matter expert describes malaria prevention strategies aimed at reducing the risk of malaria in travelers, discusses the diagnosis of malaria in patients with suspect malaria, and explains the treatment options for confirmed malaria cases.

  7. [Malaria in Poland in 2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepień, Małgorzata

    2012-01-01

    malaria (caused by P. falciparum), most frequently due to delayed diagnosis and treatment, is a continual problem. Such cases underline the need for adequate pre-travel information regarding the risk of malaria and preventive measures available.

  8. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  9. Malaria infection has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kassahun Alemu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination requires successful nationwide control efforts. Detecting the spatiotemporal distribution and mapping high-risk areas are useful to effectively target pockets of malaria endemic regions for interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify patterns of malaria distribution by space and time in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the monthly reports stored in the district malaria offices for the period between 2003 and 2012. Eighteen districts in the highland and fringe malaria areas were included and geo-coded for the purpose of this study. The spatial data were created in ArcGIS10 for each district. The Poisson model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan™ software to analyze the purely temporal, spatial and space-time clusters of malaria at a district levels. RESULTS: The study revealed that malaria case distribution has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable transmission areas. Most likely spatial malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR =197764.1, p<0.001. Significant spatiotemporal malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR=197764.1, p<0.001 between 2003/1/1 and 2012/12/31. A temporal scan statistics identified two high risk periods from 2009/1/1 to 2010/12/31 (LLR=72490.5, p<0.001 and from 2003/1/1 to 2005/12/31 (LLR=26988.7, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: In unstable malaria transmission areas, detecting and considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity would be useful to strengthen malaria control efforts and ultimately achieve elimination.

  10. Predictive cytogenetic biomarkers for colorectal neoplasia in medium risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, E M; Nicolaie, T; Ionescu, M A; Becheanu, G; Andrei, F; Diculescu, M; Ciocirlan, M

    2015-01-01

    DNA damage and chromosomal alterations in peripheral lymphocytes parallels DNA mutations in tumor tissues. The aim of our study was to predict the presence of neoplastic colorectal lesions by specific biomarkers in "medium risk" individuals (age 50 to 75, with no personal or family of any colorectal neoplasia). We designed a prospective cohort observational study including patients undergoing diagnostic or opportunistic screening colonoscopy. Specific biomarkers were analyzed for each patient in peripheral lymphocytes - presence of micronuclei (MN), nucleoplasmic bridges (NPB) and the Nuclear Division Index (NDI) by the cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus assay (CBMN). Of 98 patients included, 57 were "medium risk" individuals. MN frequency and NPB presence were not significantly different in patients with neoplastic lesions compared to controls. In "medium risk" individuals, mean NDI was significantly lower for patients with any neoplastic lesions (adenomas and adenocarcinomas, AUROC 0.668, p 00.5), for patients with advanced neoplasia (advanced adenoma and adenocarcinoma, AUROC 0.636 p 0.029) as well as for patients with adenocarcinoma (AUROC 0.650, p 0.048), for each comparison with the rest of the population. For a cut-off of 1.8, in "medium risk" individuals, an NDI inferior to that value may predict any neoplastic lesion with a sensitivity of 97.7%, an advanced neoplastic lesion with a sensitivity of 97% and adenocarcinoma with a sensitivity of 94.4%. NDI score may have a role as a colorectal cancer-screening test in "medium risk" individuals. DNA = deoxyribonucleic acid; CRC = colorectal cancer; EU = European Union; WHO = World Health Organization; FOBT = fecal occult blood test; CBMN = cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus assay; MN = micronuclei; NPB = nucleoplasmic bridges; NDI = Nuclear Division Index; FAP = familial adenomatous polyposis; HNPCC = hereditary non-polypoid colorectal cancer; IBD = inflammatory bowel diseases; ROC = receiver operating

  11. The usefulness of twenty-four molecular markers in predicting treatment outcome with combination therapy of amodiaquine plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine against falciparum malaria in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reeder John C

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Papua New Guinea (PNG, combination therapy with amodiaquine (AQ or chloroquine (CQ plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP was introduced as first-line treatment against uncomplicated malaria in 2000. Methods We assessed in vivo treatment failure rates with AQ+SP in two different areas in PNG and twenty-four molecular drug resistance markers of Plasmodium falciparum were characterized in pre-treatment samples. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between infecting genotype and treatment response in order to identify useful predictors of treatment failure with AQ+SP. Results In 2004, Day-28 treatment failure rates for AQ+SP were 29% in the Karimui and 19% in the South Wosera area, respectively. The strongest independent predictors for treatment failure with AQ+SP were pfmdr1 N86Y (OR = 7.87, p pfdhps A437G (OR = 3.44, p pfcrt K76T, A220S, N326D, and I356L did not help to increase the predictive value, the most likely reason being that these mutations reached almost fixed levels. Though mutations in SP related markers pfdhfr S108N and C59R were not associated with treatment failure, they increased the predictive value of pfdhps A437G. The difference in treatment failure rate in the two sites was reflected in the corresponding genetic profile of the parasite populations, with significant differences seen in the allele frequencies of mutant pfmdr1 N86Y, pfmdr1 Y184F, pfcrt A220S, and pfdhps A437G. Conclusion The study provides evidence for high levels of resistance to the combination regimen of AQ+SP in PNG and indicates which of the many molecular markers analysed are useful for the monitoring of parasite resistance to combinations with AQ+SP.

  12. Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

  13. Threat and error management for anesthesiologists: a predictive risk taxonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruskin, Keith J.; Stiegler, Marjorie P.; Park, Kellie; Guffey, Patrick; Kurup, Viji; Chidester, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of review Patient care in the operating room is a dynamic interaction that requires cooperation among team members and reliance upon sophisticated technology. Most human factors research in medicine has been focused on analyzing errors and implementing system-wide changes to prevent them from recurring. We describe a set of techniques that has been used successfully by the aviation industry to analyze errors and adverse events and explain how these techniques can be applied to patient care. Recent findings Threat and error management (TEM) describes adverse events in terms of risks or challenges that are present in an operational environment (threats) and the actions of specific personnel that potentiate or exacerbate those threats (errors). TEM is a technique widely used in aviation, and can be adapted for the use in a medical setting to predict high-risk situations and prevent errors in the perioperative period. A threat taxonomy is a novel way of classifying and predicting the hazards that can occur in the operating room. TEM can be used to identify error-producing situations, analyze adverse events, and design training scenarios. Summary TEM offers a multifaceted strategy for identifying hazards, reducing errors, and training physicians. A threat taxonomy may improve analysis of critical events with subsequent development of specific interventions, and may also serve as a framework for training programs in risk mitigation. PMID:24113268

  14. Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrinello, C M; Matsushita, K; Woodward, M; Wagenknecht, L E; Coresh, J; Selvin, E

    2016-09-01

    To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers. We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics. Successive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p < 0.05 for differences). The addition of three traditional and non-traditional biomarkers [β-2 microglobulin, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cystatin C-based eGFR] to Model 3 significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic = 0.716; p = 0.003) and accuracy of 10-year risk prediction for major complications in people with diabetes (midpoint percentiles of lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk changed from 18-68% to 12-87%). These biomarkers, particularly those of kidney filtration, may help distinguish between people at low versus high risk of long-term major complications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Adolescent expectations of early death predict adult risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quynh C Nguyen

    Full Text Available Only a handful of public health studies have investigated expectations of early death among adolescents. Associations have been found between these expectations and risk behaviors in adolescence. However, these beliefs may not only predict worse adolescent outcomes, but worse trajectories in health with ties to negative outcomes that endure into young adulthood. The objectives of this study were to investigate perceived chances of living to age 35 (Perceived Survival Expectations, PSE as a predictor of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt and substance use in young adulthood. We examined the predictive capacity of PSE on future suicidal ideation/attempt after accounting for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and history of suicide among family and friends to more fully assess its unique contribution to suicide risk. We investigated the influence of PSE on legal and illegal substance use and varying levels of substance use. We utilized the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health initiated in 1994-95 among 20,745 adolescents in grades 7-12 with follow-up interviews in 1996 (Wave II, 2001-02 (Wave III and 2008 (Wave IV; ages 24-32. Compared to those who were almost certain of living to age 35, perceiving a 50-50 or less chance of living to age 35 at Waves I or III predicted suicide attempt and ideation as well as regular substance use (i.e., exceeding daily limits for moderate drinking; smoking ≥ a pack/day; and using illicit substances other than marijuana at least weekly at Wave IV. Associations between PSE and detrimental adult outcomes were particularly strong for those reporting persistently low PSE at both Waves I and III. Low PSE at Wave I or Wave III was also related to a doubling and tripling, respectively, of death rates in young adulthood. Long-term and wide-ranging ties between PSE and detrimental outcomes suggest these expectations may contribute to identifying at-risk youth.

  16. An epidemiological overview of malaria in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Nazrul; Bonovas, Stefanos; Nikolopoulos, Georgios K

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is one of the four major malaria-endemic countries in South-East Asia having approximately 34% of its population at risk of malaria. This paper aims at providing an overview of the malaria situation in this country. Relevant information was retrieved from published articles and reports in PubMed and Google Scholar. Malaria in Bangladesh is concentrated in 13 districts with a prevalence ranging between 3.1% and 36%, and is mostly caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Geographical conditions pose a potential risk for Plasmodium knowlesi malaria. Resistance to a number of drugs previously recommended for treatment has been reported. Low socio-economic status, poor schooling and close proximity to water bodies and forest areas comprise important risk factors. Despite the significant steps in Long Lasting Insecticide Net (LLIN)/Insecticide Treated Net (ITN) coverage in Bangladesh, there are still many challenges including the extension of malaria support to the remote areas of Bangladesh, where malaria prevalence is higher, and further improvements in the field of referral system and treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Management of malaria in pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen J Rogerson

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pregnant women are especially susceptible to malaria infection. Without existing immunity, severe malaria can develop requiring emergency treatment, and pregnancy loss is common. In semi-immune women, consequences of malaria for the mother include anaemia while stillbirth, premature delivery and foetal growth restriction affect the developing foetus. Preventive measures include insecticide-treated nets and (in some African settings intermittent preventive treatment. Prompt management of maternal infection is key, using parenteral artemisinins for severe malaria, and artemisinin combination treatments (ACTs in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. ACTs may soon also be recommended as an alternative to quinine as a treatment in the first trimester of pregnancy. Monitoring the safety of antimalarials and understanding their pharmacokinetics is particularly important in pregnancy with the altered maternal physiology and the risks to the developing foetus. As increasing numbers of countries embrace malaria elimination as a goal, the special needs of the vulnerable group of pregnant women and their infants should not be overlooked.

  18. The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

    2017-03-01

    Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. [Fake malaria drugs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bygbjerg, Ib Christian

    2009-03-02

    The literature on fake medicaments is sparse, even if approximately 15% of all medicaments are fake, a figure that for antimalarials in particular reaches 50% in parts of Africa and Asia. Sub-standard and fake medicines deplete the public's confidence in health systems, health professionals and in the pharmaceutical industry - and increase the risk that resistance develops. For a traveller coming from a rich Western country, choosing to buy e.g. preventive antimalarials over the internet or in poor malaria-endemic areas, the consequences may be fatal. International trade-, control- and police-collaboration is needed to manage the problem, as is the fight against poverty and poor governance.

  20. Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

    2018-07-01

    Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  2. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  3. Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Berrang-Ford

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

  4. Alternative Testing Methods for Predicting Health Risk from Environmental Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamaria Colacci

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Alternative methods to animal testing are considered as promising tools to support the prediction of toxicological risks from environmental exposure. Among the alternative testing methods, the cell transformation assay (CTA appears to be one of the most appropriate approaches to predict the carcinogenic properties of single chemicals, complex mixtures and environmental pollutants. The BALB/c 3T3 CTA shows a good degree of concordance with the in vivo rodent carcinogenesis tests. Whole-genome transcriptomic profiling is performed to identify genes that are transcriptionally regulated by different kinds of exposures. Its use in cell models representative of target organs may help in understanding the mode of action and predicting the risk for human health. Aiming at associating the environmental exposure to health-adverse outcomes, we used an integrated approach including the 3T3 CTA and transcriptomics on target cells, in order to evaluate the effects of airborne particulate matter (PM on toxicological complex endpoints. Organic extracts obtained from PM2.5 and PM1 samples were evaluated in the 3T3 CTA in order to identify effects possibly associated with different aerodynamic diameters or airborne chemical components. The effects of the PM2.5 extracts on human health were assessed by using whole-genome 44 K oligo-microarray slides. Statistical analysis by GeneSpring GX identified genes whose expression was modulated in response to the cell treatment. Then, modulated genes were associated with pathways, biological processes and diseases through an extensive biological analysis. Data derived from in vitro methods and omics techniques could be valuable for monitoring the exposure to toxicants, understanding the modes of action via exposure-associated gene expression patterns and to highlight the role of genes in key events related to adversity.

  5. Value of multiple risk factors in predicting coronary artery disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhengbin; Zhang Ruiyan; Zhang Qi; Yang Zhenkun; Hu Jian; Zhang Jiansheng; Shen Weifeng

    2008-01-01

    Objective: This study sought to assess the relationship between correlative comprehension risk factors and coronary arterial disease and to build up a simple mathematical model to evaluate the extension of coronary artery lesion in patients with stable angina. Methods: A total of 1024 patients with chest pain who underwent coronary angiography were divided into CAD group(n=625)and control group(n=399) based on at least one significant coronary artery narrowing more than 50% in diameter. Independent risk factors for CAD were evaluated and multivariate logistic regression model and receiver-operating characteristic(ROC) curves were used to estimate the independent influence factor for CAD and built up a simple formula for clinical use. Results: Multivariate regression analysis revealed that UACR > 7.25 μg/mg(OR=3.6; 95% CI 2.6-4.9; P 20 mmol/L(OR=3.2; 95% CI 2.3-4.4; P 2 (OR=2.3; 95% CI 1.4-3.8; P 2.6 mmol/L (OR 2.141; 95% CI 1.586-2.890; P 7.25 μg/mg + 1.158 x hsCRP > 20 mmol/L + 0.891 GFR 2 + 0.831 x LVEF 2.6 mmol/L + 0.676 x smoking history + 0.594 x male + 0.459 x diabetes + 0.425 x hypertension). Area under the curve was 0.811 (P < 0.01), and the optimal probability value for predicting severe stage of CAD was 0.977 (sensitivity 49.0%, specificity 92.7% ). Conclusions: Risk factors including renal insufficiency were the main predictors for CAD. The logistic regression model is the non-invasive method of choice for predicting the extension of coronary artery lesion in patients with stable agiana. (authors)

  6. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petersen, Japke F.; Stuiver, Martijn M.; Timmermans, Adriana J.; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P.; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T.; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W. M.

    2017-01-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442

  7. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  8. Atypical lymphocytes in malaria mimicking dengue infection in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polrat Wilairatana

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Polrat Wilairatana1, Noppadon Tangpukdee1, Sant Muangnoicharoen1, Srivicha Krudsood2, Shigeyuki Kano31Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, 2Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; 3Department of Tropical Medicine and Malaria, Research Institute, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, JapanAbstract: Patients with uncomplicated falciparum or vivax malaria usually present with acute febrile illness and thrombocytopenia similar to dengue infection. We retrospectively studied atypical lymphocytes (AL and atypical lymphocytosis (ALO, defined as AL > 5% of total white blood cells in 1310 uncomplicated malaria patients. In 718 falciparum malaria patients, AL and ALO on day 0 were found in 53.2% and 5.7% of the patients, respectively, with median AL on admission of 1% (range 0%–10%, whereas in 592 vivax malaria patients, AL and ALO on day 0 were found in 55.4% and 9.5% of the patients, respectively, with median AL on admission of 1% (range 0%–14%. After antimalarial treatment, AL and ALO declined in both falciparum and vivax malaria. However, AL and ALO remained in falciparum malaria on days 7, 14, and 21, whereas AL and ALO remained in vivax malaria on days 7, 14, 21, and 28. In both falciparum and vivax malaria patients, there was a positive correlation between AL and total lymphocytes, but a negative correlation between AL and highest fever on admission, white blood cells, and neutrophils, eosinophils, and platelets (P < 0.05. In conclusion, AL or ALO may be found in uncomplicated falciparum and vivax malaria mimicking dengue infection. In tropical countries where both dengue and malaria are endemic, presence of AL or ALO in any acute febrile patients with thrombocytopenia (similar to the findings in dengue malaria could not be excluded. Particularly if the patients have risk of malaria infection, confirmative microscopic examination for malaria should be carried out

  9. Violence risk prediction. Clinical and actuarial measures and the role of the Psychopathy Checklist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, M; Doyle, M

    2000-10-01

    Violence risk prediction is a priority issue for clinicians working with mentally disordered offenders. To review the current status of violence risk prediction research. Literature search (Medline). Key words: violence, risk prediction, mental disorder. Systematic/structured risk assessment approaches may enhance the accuracy of clinical prediction of violent outcomes. Data on the predictive validity of available clinical risk assessment tools are based largely on American and North American studies and further validation is required in British samples. The Psychopathy Checklist appears to be a key predictor of violent recidivism in a variety of settings. Violence risk prediction is an inexact science and as such will continue to provoke debate. Clinicians clearly need to be able to demonstrate the rationale behind their decisions on violence risk and much can be learned from recent developments in research on violence risk prediction.

  10. Prevalence of Malaria among Children 1 – 10 Years Old in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    and examined for malarial parasite under the microscope using the oil immersion ... African children under five years and pregnant women are most at risk of malaria. Fatally ..... the commonest complication of malaria. among 1 -5 age groups.

  11. Malaria burden in irregular migrants returning to Sri Lanka from human smuggling operations in West Africa and implications for a country reaching malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramage, K; Galappaththy, G N L

    2013-05-01

    The number of malaria cases among irregular migrants returning to Sri Lanka has not been investigated. In the first 6 months of 2012 we screened 287 irregular migrants returning from seven West African nations to Sri Lanka for malaria to ascertain the risk of infection during migration. Four men were diagnosed as having malaria: three with Plasmodium falciparum had travelled to Togo and one with P. vivax had travelled to Guinea. The risk of contracting malaria was 14 cases per 1000. Facilitating a safe return with selective screening for at-risk inbound migrants flows is desirable as Sri Lanka advances towards its goal of malaria elimination.

  12. Long-term impact of childhood malaria infection on school performance among school children in a malaria endemic area along the Thai-Myanmar border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorasan, Nutchavadee; Pan-Ngum, Wirichada; Jittamala, Podjanee; Maneeboonyang, Wanchai; Rukmanee, Prasert; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

    2015-10-09

    Children represent a high-risk group for malaria worldwide. Among people in Thailand who have malaria during childhood, some may have multiple malaria attacks during their lifetime. Malaria may affect neurological cognition in children, resulting in short-term impairment of memory and language functions. However, little is known regarding the long-term effects of malaria infection on cognitive function. This study examines the long-term impact of malaria infection on school performance among school children living in a malaria-endemic area along the Thai-Myanmar border. A retrospective cohort study was conducted among school children aged 6-17 years in a primary-secondary school of a sub-district of Ratchaburi Province, Thailand. History of childhood malaria infection was obtained from the medical records of the sole malaria clinic in the area. School performance was assessed by using scores for the subjects Thai Language and Mathematics in 2014. Other variables, such as demographic characteristics, perinatal history, nutritional status, and emotional intelligence, were also documented. A total of 457 students were included, 135 (30 %) of whom had a history of uncomplicated malaria infection. About half of the malaria-infected children had suffered infection before the age of four years. The mean scores for both Mathematics and Thai Language decreased in relation to the increasing number of malaria attacks. Most students had their last malaria episode more than two years previously. The mean scores were not associated with duration since the last malaria attack. The association between malaria infection and school performance was not significant after adjusting for potential confounders, including gender, school absenteeism over a semester term, and emotional intelligence. This study characterizes the long-term consequences of uncomplicated malaria disease during childhood. School performance was not associated with a history of malaria infection, considering that

  13. Young Children’s Risk-Taking: Mothers’ Authoritarian Parenting Predicts Risk-Taking by Daughters but Not Sons

    OpenAIRE

    Wood, Erin E.; Kennison, Shelia M.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated how mothers’ parenting behaviors and personal characteristics were related to risk-taking by young children. We tested contrasting predictions from evolutionary and social role theories with the former predicting higher risk-taking by boys compared to girls and the latter predicting that mothers would influence children’s gender role development with risk-taking occurring more in children parented with higher levels of harshness (i.e., authoritarian parenting style). In our st...

  14. UK malaria treatment guidelines 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalloo, David G; Shingadia, Delane; Bell, David J; Beeching, Nicholas J; Whitty, Christopher J M; Chiodini, Peter L

    2016-06-01

    1.Malaria is the tropical disease most commonly imported into the UK, with 1300-1800 cases reported each year, and 2-11 deaths. 2. Approximately three quarters of reported malaria cases in the UK are caused by Plasmodium falciparum, which is capable of invading a high proportion of red blood cells and rapidly leading to severe or life-threatening multi-organ disease. 3. Most non-falciparum malaria cases are caused by Plasmodium vivax; a few cases are caused by the other species of plasmodium: Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae or Plasmodium knowlesi. 4. Mixed infections with more than one species of parasite can occur; they commonly involve P. falciparum with the attendant risks of severe malaria. 5. There are no typical clinical features of malaria; even fever is not invariably present. Malaria in children (and sometimes in adults) may present with misleading symptoms such as gastrointestinal features, sore throat or lower respiratory complaints. 6. A diagnosis of malaria must always be sought in a feverish or sick child or adult who has visited malaria-endemic areas. Specific country information on malaria can be found at http://travelhealthpro.org.uk/. P. falciparum infection rarely presents more than six months after exposure but presentation of other species can occur more than a year after exposure. 7. Management of malaria depends on awareness of the diagnosis and on performing the correct diagnostic tests: the diagnosis cannot be excluded until more than one blood specimen has been examined. Other travel related infections, especially viral haemorrhagic fevers, should also be considered. 8. The optimum diagnostic procedure is examination of thick and thin blood films by an expert to detect and speciate the malarial parasites. P. falciparum and P. vivax (depending upon the product) malaria can be diagnosed almost as accurately using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) which detect plasmodial antigens. RDTs for other Plasmodium species are not as reliable. 9

  15. The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

    2014-02-01

    There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, pbetter for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Malaria Treatment (United States)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Providers, Emergency Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us Malaria Treatment (United States) Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Treatment of Malaria: Guidelines For Clinicians (United States) Download PDF version ...

  17. Malaria transmission in Tripura: Disease distribution & determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dev, Vas; Adak, Tridibes; Singh, Om P; Nanda, Nutan; Baidya, Bimal K

    2015-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in Tripura and focal disease outbreaks are of frequent occurrence. The state is co-endemic for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax and transmission is perennial and persistent. The present study was aimed to review data on disease distribution to prioritize high-risk districts, and to study seasonal prevalence of disease vectors and their bionomical characteristics to help formulate vector species-specific interventions for malaria control. Data on malaria morbidity in the State were reviewed retrospectively (2008-2012) for understanding disease distribution and transmission dynamics. Cross-sectional mass blood surveys were conducted in malaria endemic villages of South Tripura district to ascertain the prevalence of malaria and proportions of parasite species. Mosquito collections were made in human dwellings of malaria endemic villages aiming at vector incrimination and to study relative abundance, resting and feeding preferences, and their present susceptibility status to DDT. The study showed that malaria was widely prevalent and P. falciparum was the predominant infection (>90%), the remaining were P. vivax cases. The disease distribution, however, was uneven with large concentration of cases in districts of South Tripura and Dhalai coinciding with vast forest cover and tribal populations. Both Anopheles minimus s.s. and An. baimaii were recorded to be prevalent and observed to be highly anthropophagic and susceptible to DDT. Of these, An. minimus was incriminated (sporozoite infection rate 4.92%), and its bionomical characteristics revealed this species to be largely indoor resting and endophagic. For effective control of malaria in the state, it is recommended that diseases surveillance should be robust, and vector control interventions including DDT spray coverage, mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets/ long-lasting insecticidal nets should be intensified prioritizing population groups most at risk to

  18. Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, W. K.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Pizzitutti, F.; Berky, A.; Feingold, B.; Mena, C.; Janko, M.

    2017-12-01

    Reported cases of malaria in the western Amazon regions of Peru, Colombia and Ecuador have more than tripled since 2011. Responding to this epidemic has been challenging given large-scale environmental impacts and demographic changes combined with changing financial and political priorities. In Peru alone, malaria cases increased 5-fold since 2011. Reasons include changes in the Global Malaria Fund, massive flooding in 2012, the "mega" El Nino in 2016, and continued natural resource extraction via logging and mining. These challenges prompted the recent creation of the Malaria Cero program in 2017 with the goal to eradicate malaria by 2021. To assist in malaria eradiation, a team of investigators supported by NASA have been developing an Early Warning System for Malaria. The system leverages demographic, epidemiological, meteorological and land use/cover data to develop a four-component system that will improve detection of malaria across the western Amazon Basin. System components include a land data assimilation system (LDAS) to estimate past and future hydrological states and flux, a seasonal human population model to estimate population at risk and spatial connectivity to high risk transmission areas, a sub-regional statistical model to identify when and where observed malaria cases have exceeded those expected, and an Agent Based Model (ABM) to integrate human, environmental, and entomological transmission dynamics with potential strategies for control. Data include: daily case detection reports between 2000 and 2017 from all health posts in the region of Loreto in the northern Peruvian Amazon; LDAS outputs (precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar radiation) at a 1km and weekly scale; satellite-derived estimates of land cover; and human population size from census and health data. This presentation will provide an overview of components, focusing on how the system identifies an outbreak and plans for technology transfer.

  19. Developing a spatial-statistical model and map of historical malaria prevalence in Botswana using a staged variable selection procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mabaso Musawenkosi LH

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several malaria risk maps have been developed in recent years, many from the prevalence of infection data collated by the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project, and using various environmental data sets as predictors. Variable selection is a major obstacle due to analytical problems caused by over-fitting, confounding and non-independence in the data. Testing and comparing every combination of explanatory variables in a Bayesian spatial framework remains unfeasible for most researchers. The aim of this study was to develop a malaria risk map using a systematic and practicable variable selection process for spatial analysis and mapping of historical malaria risk in Botswana. Results Of 50 potential explanatory variables from eight environmental data themes, 42 were significantly associated with malaria prevalence in univariate logistic regression and were ranked by the Akaike Information Criterion. Those correlated with higher-ranking relatives of the same environmental theme, were temporarily excluded. The remaining 14 candidates were ranked by selection frequency after running automated step-wise selection procedures on 1000 bootstrap samples drawn from the data. A non-spatial multiple-variable model was developed through step-wise inclusion in order of selection frequency. Previously excluded variables were then re-evaluated for inclusion, using further step-wise bootstrap procedures, resulting in the exclusion of another variable. Finally a Bayesian geo-statistical model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was fitted to the data, resulting in a final model of three predictor variables, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. Each was independently and significantly associated with malaria prevalence after allowing for spatial correlation. This model was used to predict malaria prevalence at unobserved locations, producing a smooth risk map for the whole country. Conclusion We have

  20. ABO phenotypes and malaria related outcomes in mothers and babies in The Gambia: a role for histo-blood groups in placental malaria?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loscertales, María-Paz; Brabin, Bernard J.

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Host susceptibility to P.falciparum is critical for understanding malaria in pregnancy, its consequences for the mother and baby, and for improving malaria control in pregnant women. Yet host genetic factors which could influence placental malaria risk are little studied and there are no

  1. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

    2017-09-25

    The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a

  2. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic ...... risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management....

  3. STATUS HEMATOLOGI PENDERITA MALARIA SEREBRAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurhayati Nurhayati

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available AbstrakMalaria masih merupakan masalah kesehatan masyarakat dunia. Berdasarkan klasifikasi klinis, malaria dibedakan atas malaria berat dan malaria tanpa komplikasi. Malaria serebral merupakan komplikasi terberat dari malaria falsiparum.Telah dilakukan penelitian seksi silang terhadap penderita malaria falciparum yang dirawat inap di Bangsal Penyakit Dalam RS. Perjan. Dr. M. Djamil Padang dari bulan Juni 2002 sampai Juni 2006. Pada penelitian ini didapatkan jumlah sampel sebanyak 60 orang, terdiri dari 16 orang penderita malaria serebral dan 44 orang penderita malaria tanpa komplikasi.Data penelitian menunjukan terdapat perbedaan bermakna nilai hematokrit (p<0,05 dan jumlah leukosit (p<0,05 antara penderita malaria serebral dengan penderita malaria tanpa komplikasi. Dan terdapat korelasi positif antara nilai hemoglobin dengan hematokrit (r=0,864; p<0,05 pada penderita malaria falsiparum.Kata kunci: malaria serebral, malaria tanpa komplikasi, malaria falsiparumAbstract Malaria is still a problem of health of world society. Based on the clinical classification, are distinguished on severe malaria and uncomplicated malaria. Cerebral malaria is the worst complication of falciparum malaria. Cross section of the research done at the Hospital Dr. M. Djamil Padang againts medical record of malaria patients who are hospitalized in the Internal Medicine from June 2002 until June 2004. In this study, a total sample of 60 people, consisting of 16 cerebral malaria and 44 uncomplicated malaria. Data showed there were significant differences for hematocrit values (p <0.05 and total leukocytes values (p <0.05 between cerebral malaria and uncomplicated malaria patients. There is a positive correlation between hemoglobin with hematocrit values (r = 0.864; p <0.05 of falciparum malaria patients. Keywords: cerebral malaria, uncomplicated malaria, falciparum malaria

  4. Quantitative urban classification for malaria epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slutsker Laurence

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although sub-Saharan Africa (SSA is rapidly urbanizing, the terms used to classify urban ecotypes are poorly defined in the context of malaria epidemiology. Lack of clear definitions may cause misclassification error, which likely decreases the accuracy of continent-wide estimates of malaria burden, limits the generalizability of urban malaria studies, and makes identification of high-risk areas for targeted interventions within cities more difficult. Accordingly, clustering techniques were applied to a set of urbanization- and malaria-related variables in Kisumu, Kenya, to produce a quantitative classification of the urban environment for malaria research. Methods Seven variables with a known or expected relationship with malaria in the context of urbanization were identified and measured at the census enumeration area (EA level, using three sources: a the results of a citywide knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP survey; b a high-resolution multispectral satellite image; and c national census data. Principal components analysis (PCA was used to identify three factors explaining higher proportions of the combined variance than the original variables. A k-means clustering algorithm was applied to the EA-level factor scores to assign EAs to one of three categories: "urban," "peri-urban," or "semi-rural." The results were compared with classifications derived from two other approaches: a administrative designation of urban/rural by the census or b population density thresholds. Results Urban zones resulting from the clustering algorithm were more geographically coherent than those delineated by population density. Clustering distributed population more evenly among zones than either of the other methods and more accurately predicted variation in other variables related to urbanization, but not used for classification. Conclusion Effective urban malaria epidemiology and control would benefit from quantitative methods to

  5. Uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garaud, Damien

    2011-01-01

    This work is about uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality. Firstly, we build a multi-model ensemble of air quality simulations which can take into account all uncertainty sources related to air quality modeling. Ensembles of photochemical simulations at continental and regional scales are automatically generated. Then, these ensemble are calibrated with a combinatorial optimization method. It selects a sub-ensemble which is representative of uncertainty or shows good resolution and reliability for probabilistic forecasting. This work shows that it is possible to estimate and forecast uncertainty fields related to ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations or to improve the reliability of threshold exceedance predictions. The approach is compared with Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated or not. The Monte Carlo approach appears to be less representative of the uncertainties than the multi-model approach. Finally, we quantify the observational error, the representativeness error and the modeling errors. The work is applied to the impact of thermal power plants, in order to quantify the uncertainty on the impact estimates. (author) [fr

  6. Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeboah J

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease

  7. Predicting infection risk of airborne foot-and-mouth disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schley, David; Burgin, Laura; Gloster, John

    2009-05-06

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals, the control and eradication of which is of significant worldwide socio-economic importance. The virus may spread by direct contact between animals or via fomites as well as through airborne transmission, with the latter being the most difficult to control. Here, we consider the risk of infection to flocks or herds from airborne virus emitted from a known infected premises. We show that airborne infection can be predicted quickly and with a good degree of accuracy, provided that the source of virus emission has been determined and reliable geo-referenced herd data are available. A simple model provides a reliable tool for estimating risk from known sources and for prioritizing surveillance and detection efforts. The issue of data information management systems was highlighted as a lesson to be learned from the official inquiry into the UK 2007 foot-and-mouth outbreak: results here suggest that the efficacy of disease control measures could be markedly improved through an accurate livestock database incorporating flock/herd size and location, which would enable tactical as well as strategic modelling.

  8. Imported Malaria in Children in Industrialized Countries, 1992–2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stäger, Katrin; Legros, Fabrice; Krause, Gérard; Low, Nicola; Bradley, David; Desai, Meghna; Graf, Simone; D’Amato, Stefania; Mizuno, Yasutaka; Janzon, Ragnhild; Petersen, Eskild; Kester, John; Steffen, Robert

    2009-01-01

    Children account for an appreciable proportion of total imported malaria cases, yet few studies have quantified these cases, identified trends, or suggested evidence-based prevention strategies for this group of travelers. We therefore sought to identify numbers of cases and deaths, Plasmodium species, place of malaria acquisition, preventive measures used, and national origin of malaria in children. We analyzed retrospective data from Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States and data provided by the United Nations World Tourism Organization. During 1992–2002, >17,000 cases of imported malaria in children were reported in 11 countries where malaria is not endemic; most (>70%) had been acquired in Africa. Returning to country of origin to visit friends and relatives was a risk factor. Malaria prevention for children should be a responsibility of healthcare providers and should be subsidized for low-income travelers to high-risk areas. PMID:19193261

  9. Imported malaria in children in industrialized countries, 1992-2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stäger, Katrin; Legros, Fabrice; Krause, Gérard; Low, Nicola; Bradley, David; Desai, Meghna; Graf, Simone; D'Amato, Stefania; Mizuno, Yasutaka; Janzon, Ragnhild; Petersen, Eskild; Kester, John; Steffen, Robert; Schlagenhauf, Patricia

    2009-02-01

    Children account for an appreciable proportion of total imported malaria cases, yet few studies have quantified these cases, identified trends, or suggested evidence-based prevention strategies for this group of travelers. We therefore sought to identify numbers of cases and deaths, Plasmodium species, place of malaria acquisition, preventive measures used, and national origin of malaria in children. We analyzed retrospective data from Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States and data provided by the United Nations World Tourism Organization. During 1992-2002, >17,000 cases of imported malaria in children were reported in 11 countries where malaria is not endemic; most (>70%) had been acquired in Africa. Returning to country of origin to visit friends and relatives was a risk factor. Malaria prevention for children should be a responsibility of healthcare providers and should be subsidized for low-income travelers to high-risk areas.

  10. The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winskill, Peter; Slater, Hannah C; Griffin, Jamie T; Ghani, Azra C; Walker, Patrick G T

    2017-11-01

    Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur. We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million) malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million) lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million) cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653) lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166) per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million) cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263) deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening) in this analysis. Our

  11. The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Winskill

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI, are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur.We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs, indoor residual spraying (IRS, and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs. We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653 lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263 deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening in this analysis

  12. Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Singhal, Aneesh B; Wang, Yongjun

    2014-07-25

    Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke. The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and β-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively. A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts

  13. A genetic risk score combining ten psoriasis risk loci improves disease prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyan Chen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease affecting 2-3% of Caucasians. Recent genetic association studies have identified multiple psoriasis risk loci; however, most of these loci contribute only modestly to disease risk. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS combining multiple loci could improve psoriasis prediction. Two approaches were used: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS and a weighted (wGRS approach. Ten psoriasis risk SNPs were genotyped in 2815 case-control samples and 858 family samples. We found that the total number of risk alleles in the cases was significantly higher than in controls, mean 13.16 (SD 1.7 versus 12.09 (SD 1.8, p = 4.577×10(-40. The wGRS captured considerably more risk than any SNP considered alone, with a psoriasis OR for high-low wGRS quartiles of 10.55 (95% CI 7.63-14.57, p = 2.010×10(-65. To compare the discriminatory ability of the GRS models, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC. The AUC for wGRS was significantly greater than for cGRS (72.0% versus 66.5%, p = 2.13×10(-8. Additionally, the AUC for HLA-C alone (rs10484554 was equivalent to the AUC for all nine other risk loci combined (66.2% versus 63.8%, p = 0.18, highlighting the dominance of HLA-C as a risk locus. Logistic regression revealed that the wGRS was significantly associated with two subphenotypes of psoriasis, age of onset (p = 4.91×10(-6 and family history (p = 0.020. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that the 10 risk loci account for only 11.6% of the genetic variance in psoriasis. In summary, we found that a GRS combining 10 psoriasis risk loci captured significantly more risk than any individual SNP and was associated with early onset of disease and a positive family history. Notably, only a small fraction of psoriasis heritability is captured by the common risk variants identified to date.

  14. Modelling malaria treatment practices in Bangladesh using spatial statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haque Ubydul

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria treatment-seeking practices vary worldwide and Bangladesh is no exception. Individuals from 88 villages in Rajasthali were asked about their treatment-seeking practices. A portion of these households preferred malaria treatment from the National Control Programme, but still a large number of households continued to use drug vendors and approximately one fourth of the individuals surveyed relied exclusively on non-control programme treatments. The risks of low-control programme usage include incomplete malaria treatment, possible misuse of anti-malarial drugs, and an increased potential for drug resistance. Methods The spatial patterns of treatment-seeking practices were first examined using hot-spot analysis (Local Getis-Ord Gi statistic and then modelled using regression. Ordinary least squares (OLS regression identified key factors explaining more than 80% of the variation in control programme and vendor treatment preferences. Geographically weighted regression (GWR was then used to assess where each factor was a strong predictor of treatment-seeking preferences. Results Several factors including tribal affiliation, housing materials, household densities, education levels, and proximity to the regional urban centre, were found to be effective predictors of malaria treatment-seeking preferences. The predictive strength of each of these factors, however, varied across the study area. While education, for example, was a strong predictor in some villages, it was less important for predicting treatment-seeking outcomes in other villages. Conclusion Understanding where each factor is a strong predictor of treatment-seeking outcomes may help in planning targeted interventions aimed at increasing control programme usage. Suggested strategies include providing additional training for the Building Resources across Communities (BRAC health workers, implementing educational programmes, and addressing economic factors.

  15. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-05-20

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress

  16. Outcomes of imported malaria during pregnancy within Venezuelan states: implications for travel advice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J; Arria, Melissa; Sánchez, Elia; Vargas, Miguel; Piccolo, Carmelina; Colina, Rosa; Franco-Paredes, Carlos

    2007-01-01

    Prevention of malaria in pregnant women is an utmost priority because the disease can cause serious maternal and neonatal complications. Maternal complications include marked anemia, increased risk of severe disease, and mortality, while the fetus or neonate is at risk of prematurity, anemia, and low birthweight. Pregnant women living in malaria endemic areas may be semiimmune to a particular Plasmodium spp. but when traveling to other regions, sometimes within their same country, where malaria epidemiology is different, may develop severe malaria complications. Here, we describe our experience in northeastern Venezuela associated with unfavorable outcomes of imported malaria cases among pregnant women who traveled to other Venezuelan regions with different malaria epidemiology. Travel medicine practitioners should be aware and educate their pregnant patients regarding the risk of malaria even when living in malaria endemic areas and traveling to other endemic areas such as occurs in Venezuela.

  17. Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2014-05-01

    Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Dispensing and determinants of non-adherence to treatment for non complicated malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in high-risk municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio-de-Castro, Claudia G S; Suárez-Mutis, Martha C; Miranda, Elaine S; Luz, Tatiana C B

    2015-11-26

    In Brazil, 99.7 % of malaria cases occur in the Amazon region. Although the number of cases is decreasing, the country accounted for almost 60 % of cases in the Americas Region, in 2013. Novel approaches for malaria treatment open the possibility of eliminating the disease, but suboptimal dispensing and lack of adherence influence treatment outcomes. The aim of this paper is to show the results on dispensing practices, non-adherence and determinants of non-adherence to treatment of non-complicated malaria. The study was conducted in six high-risk municipalities with Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Brazilian Amazon and based on the theoretical framework of the Mafalda Project, which included investigation of dispensing and adherence. The World Health Organization Rapid Evaluation Method has been used to estimate sample size. Individuals over 15 years of age with malaria were approached at health facilities and invited to participate through informed consent. Data was collected in chart review forms focusing on diagnosis, Plasmodium type, prescribing, and dispensing (kind, quantity, labelling and procedures). Follow-up household interviews complemented data collection at health facility. Non-adherence was measured during the implementation phase, by self-reports and pill-counts. Analysis was descriptive and statistical tests were carried out. Determinants of non-adherence and quality of dispensing were assessed according to the literature. The study involved 165 patients. Dispensing was done according to the national guidelines. Labelling was adequate for P. vivax but inadequate for P. falciparum medicines. Non-adherent patients were 12.1 % according to self-reports and 21.8 % according to pill-counts. Results point to greater non-adherence among all P. falciparum patients and among malaria non-naîve patients. More patients informed understanding adverse effects than 'how to use' anti-malarials. Non-adherent patients were mostly those

  19. The Malaria Transition on the Arabian Peninsula: Progress toward a Malaria-Free Region between 1960–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Robert W.; Amratia, Punam; Zamani, Ghasem; Mundia, Clara W.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Memish, Ziad A.; Al Zahrani, Mohammad H.; Al Jasari, Adel; Fikri, Mahmoud; Atta, Hoda

    2014-01-01

    The transmission of malaria across the Arabian Peninsula is governed by the diversity of dominant vectors and extreme aridity. It is likely that where malaria transmission was historically possible it was intense and led to a high disease burden. Here, we review the speed of elimination, approaches taken, define the shrinking map of risk since 1960 and discuss the threats posed to a malaria-free Arabian Peninsula using the archive material, case data and published works. From as early as the 1940s, attempts were made to eliminate malaria on the peninsula but were met with varying degrees of success through to the 1970s; however, these did result in a shrinking of the margins of malaria transmission across the peninsula. Epidemics in the 1990s galvanised national malaria control programmes to reinvigorate control efforts. Before the launch of the recent global ambition for malaria eradication, countries on the Arabian Peninsula launched a collaborative malaria-free initiative in 2005. This initiative led a further shrinking of the malaria risk map and today locally acquired clinical cases of malaria are reported only in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with the latter contributing to over 98% of the clinical burden. PMID:23548086

  20. Economic cost analysis of malaria case management at the household level during the malaria elimination phase in The People's Republic of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Shang; Ma, Jin-Xiang; Wang, Duo-Quan; Li, Shi-Zhu; Rollinson, David; Zhou, Shui-Sen; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2016-06-03

    In China, malaria has been posing a significant economic burden on households. To evaluate malaria economic burden in terms of both direct and indirect costs has its meaning in improving the effectiveness of malaria elimination program in China. A number of study sites (eight counties in five provinces) were selected from the malaria endemic area in China, representing the different levels of malaria incidence, risk classification, economic development. A number of households with malaria cases (n = 923) were surveyed during the May to December in 2012 to collect information on malaria economic burden. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the basic profiles of selected malaria cases in terms of their gender, age group, occupation and malaria type. The malaria economic costs were evaluated by direct and indirect costs. Comparisons were carried out by using the chi-square test (or Z-test) and the Mann-Whitney U test among malaria cases with reference to local/imported malaria patients, hospitalized/out patients, and treatment hospitals. The average cost of malaria per case was 1 691.23 CNY (direct cost was 735.41 CNY and indirect cost was 955.82 CNY), which accounted for 11.1 % of a household's total income. The average costs per case for local and imported malaria were 1 087.58 CNY and 4271.93 CNY, respectively. The average cost of a malaria patient being diagnosed and treated in a hospital at the county level or above (3 975.43 CNY) was 4.23 times higher than that of malaria patient being diagnosed and treated at a village or township hospital (938.80 CNY). This study found that malaria has been posing a significant economic burden on households in terms of direct and indirect costs. There is a need to improve the effectiveness of interventions in order to reduce the impact costs of malaria, especially of imported infections, in order to eliminate the disease in China.

  1. Increasing Incidence of Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria following Control of P. falciparum and P. vivax Malaria in Sabah, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, Timothy; Rahman, Hasan A.; Jelip, Jenarun; Ibrahim, Mohammad Y.; Menon, Jayaram; Grigg, Matthew J.; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Barber, Bridget E.

    2013-01-01

    Background The simian parasite Plasmodium knowlesi is a common cause of human malaria in Malaysian Borneo and threatens the prospect of malaria elimination. However, little is known about the emergence of P. knowlesi, particularly in Sabah. We reviewed Sabah Department of Health records to investigate the trend of each malaria species over time. Methods Reporting of microscopy-diagnosed malaria cases in Sabah is mandatory. We reviewed all available Department of Health malaria notification records from 1992–2011. Notifications of P. malariae and P. knowlesi were considered as a single group due to microscopic near-identity. Results From 1992–2011 total malaria notifications decreased dramatically, with P. falciparum peaking at 33,153 in 1994 and decreasing 55-fold to 605 in 2011, and P. vivax peaking at 15,857 in 1995 and decreasing 25-fold to 628 in 2011. Notifications of P. malariae/P. knowlesi also demonstrated a peak in the mid-1990s (614 in 1994) before decreasing to ≈100/year in the late 1990s/early 2000s. However, P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications increased >10-fold between 2004 (n = 59) and 2011 (n = 703). In 1992 P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae/P. knowlesi monoinfections accounted for 70%, 24% and 1% respectively of malaria notifications, compared to 30%, 31% and 35% in 2011. The increase in P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications occurred state-wide, appearing to have begun in the southwest and progressed north-easterly. Conclusions A significant recent increase has occurred in P. knowlesi notifications following reduced transmission of the human Plasmodium species, and this trend threatens malaria elimination. Determination of transmission dynamics and risk factors for knowlesi malaria is required to guide measures to control this rising incidence. PMID:23359830

  2. Spatial synchrony of malaria outbreaks in a highland region of Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, Michael C; Midekisa, Alemayehu; Semuniguse, Paulos; Teka, Hiwot; Henebry, Geoffrey M; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Senay, Gabriel B

    2012-10-01

    To understand the drivers and consequences of malaria in epidemic-prone regions, it is important to know whether epidemics emerge independently in different areas as a consequence of local contingencies, or whether they are synchronised across larger regions as a result of climatic fluctuations and other broad-scale drivers. To address this question, we collected historical malaria surveillance data for the Amhara region of Ethiopia and analysed them to assess the consistency of various indicators of malaria risk and determine the dominant spatial and temporal patterns of malaria within the region. We collected data from a total of 49 districts from 1999-2010. Data availability was better for more recent years and more data were available for clinically diagnosed outpatient malaria cases than confirmed malaria cases. Temporal patterns of outpatient malaria case counts were correlated with the proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria and confirmed malaria case counts. The proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria was spatially clustered, and these cluster locations were generally consistent from year to year. Outpatient malaria cases exhibited spatial synchrony at distances up to 300 km, supporting the hypothesis that regional climatic variability is an important driver of epidemics. Our results suggest that decomposing malaria risk into separate spatial and temporal components may be an effective strategy for modelling and forecasting malaria risk across large areas. They also emphasise both the value and limitations of working with historical surveillance datasets and highlight the importance of enhancing existing surveillance efforts. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

    2018-01-22

    Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

  4. Malaria in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohee, Lauren M; Laufer, Miriam K

    2017-08-01

    Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in endemic areas, leading to an estimated 438,000 deaths in 2015. Malaria is also an important health threat to travelers to endemic countries and should be considered in evaluation of any traveler returning from a malaria-endemic area who develops fever. Considering the diagnosis of malaria in patients with potential exposure is critical. Prompt provision of effective treatment limits the complications of malaria and can be life-saving. Understanding Plasmodium species variation, epidemiology, and drug-resistance patterns in the geographic area where infection was acquired is important for determining treatment choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Malignancy risk prediction for primary jejunum-ileal tumors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARQUES Ruy Garcia

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available This work is aimed at identifying factors associated with primary jejunum-ileal tumors malignancy, defining a prediction model with sensitivity, specificity and accuracy to distinguish malign from benign neoplasms. These tumors are rare, have highly unspecific presentation and, frequently, are diagnosed late. We reviewed the charts of 42 patients with primary jejunum-ileal tumors treated in the Department of General Surgery of Rio de Janeiro State University Hospital, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, from 1969 to 1998. We performed bivariate analyses, based on chi² test, searching associations between tumors malignancy and demographic and clinical variables. Then logistic regression was employed to consider the independent effect of variables previously identified on malignancy risk. The malign tumors included 11 adenocarcinomas, 7 leiomyosarcomas, 5 carcinoids and 4 lymphomas; the benign tumors included 10 leiomyomas, 2 hamartomas, and single cases of adenoma, multiple neurilemoma and choristoma. The bivariate analyses indicated the association between malignancy and palpable abdominal mass (P = 0.003, period from signs and symptoms onset to diagnosis (P = 0.016, anemia (P = 0.020, anorexia (P = 0.003, abdominal pain (P = 0.031, weight loss (P = 0.001, nausea and vomit (P = 0.094, and intestinal obstruction (P = 0.066; no association with patients demographic characteristics were found. In the final logistic regression model, weight loss, anemia and intestinal obstruction were statistically associated with the dependent variable of interest. Based only on three variables -- weight loss, anemia and intestinal obstruction -- the model defined was able to predict primary jejunum-ileal tumors malignancy with sensitivity of 85.2%, specificity of 80.0%, and accuracy of 83.3%.

  6. Malaria og graviditet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, A L; Rønn, A M; Langhoff-Roos, J

    1992-01-01

    In regions where malaria is endemism, the disease is a recognised cause of complications of pregnancy such as spontaneous abortion, premature delivery, intrauterine growth retardation and foetal death. Malaria is seldom seen in pregnant women in Denmark but, during the past two years, the authors...... the patients but also their practitioners were unaware that malaria can occur several years after exposure. Three out of the four patients had employed malaria prophylaxis. As resistance to malarial prophylactics in current use is increasing steadily, chemoprophylaxis should be supplemented by mechanical...... protection against malaria and insect repellents. As a rule, malaria is treated with chloroquine. In cases of Falciparum malaria in whom chloroquine resistance is suspected, treatment with mefloquine may be employed although this should only be employed in cases of dire necessity in pregnant patients during...

  7. Impacts of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltahir, E. A. B.; Endo, N.; Yamana, T. K.

    2017-12-01

    Malaria is a major vector-borne parasitic disease transmitted to humans by Anopheles spp mosquitoes. Africa is the hotspot for malaria transmission where more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year. Malaria transmission is an intricate function of climatic factors, which non-linearly affect the development of vectors and parasites. We project that the risk of malaria will increase towards the end of the 21st century in east Africa, but decrease in west Africa. We combine a novel malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS, that has been developed based on comprehensive multi-year field surveys both in East Africa and West Africa, and the most reliable climate projections through regional dynamical downscaling and rigorous selection of GCMs from among CMIP5 models. We define a bell-shaped relation between malaria intensity and temperature, centered around a temperature of 30°C. Future risks of malaria are projected for two highly populated regions in Africa: the highlands in East Africa and the fringes of the desert in West Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, temperature is substantially colder than this optimal temperature; warmer future climate exacerbate malaria conditions. In the Sahel fringes in West Africa, temperature is around this optimal temperature; warming is not likely to exacerbate and might even reduce malaria burden. Unlike the highlands of East Africa, which receive significant amounts of annual rainfall, dry conditions also limit malaria transmission in the Sahel fringes in West Africa. This disproportionate risk of malaria due to climate change should guide strategies for climate adaptation over Africa.

  8. Predictive Accuracy of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model in Rural South India – A Community Based Retrospective Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farah N Fathima

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Identification of individuals at risk of developing cardiovascular diseases by risk stratification is the first step in primary prevention. Aims & Objectives: To assess the five year risk of developing a cardiovascular event from retrospective data and to assess the predictive accuracy of the non laboratory based National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES risk prediction model among individuals in a rural South Indian population. Materials & Methods: A community based retrospective cohort study was conducted in three villages where risk stratification was done for all eligible adults aged between 35-74 years at the time of initial assessment using the NHANES risk prediction charts. Household visits were made after a period of five years by trained doctors to determine cardiovascular outcomes. Results: 521 people fulfilled the eligibility criteria of whom 486 (93.3% could be traced after five years. 56.8% were in low risk, 36.6% were in moderate risk and 6.6% were in high risk categories. 29 persons (5.97% had had cardiovascular events over the last five years of which 24 events (82.7% were nonfatal and five (17.25% were fatal. The mean age of the people who developed cardiovascular events was 57.24 ± 9.09 years. The odds ratios for the three levels of risk showed a linear trend with the odds ratios for the moderate risk and high risk category being 1.35 and 1.94 respectively with the low risk category as baseline. Conclusion: The non laboratory based NHANES charts did not accurately predict the occurrence of cardiovascular events in any of the risk categories.

  9. Predicting the risk of rheumatoid arthritis and its age of onset through modelling genetic risk variants with smoking.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian C Scott

    Full Text Available The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA. Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls; UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls. HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG. Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001; ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively.

  10. Indoor Tanning and the MC1R Genotype: Risk Prediction for Basal Cell Carcinoma Risk in Young People

    OpenAIRE

    Molinaro, Annette M.; Ferrucci, Leah M.; Cartmel, Brenda; Loftfield, Erikka; Leffell, David J.; Bale, Allen E.; Mayne, Susan T.

    2015-01-01

    Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence is increasing, particularly in young people, and can be associated with significant morbidity and treatment costs. To identify young individuals at risk of BCC, we assessed existing melanoma or overall skin cancer risk prediction models and built a novel risk prediction model, with a focus on indoor tanning and the melanocortin 1 receptor gene, MC1R. We evaluated logistic regression models among 759 non-Hispanic whites from a case-control study of patients...

  11. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-01-01

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress-reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse

  12. Malaria Cases in the U.S. Reach 40-Year High: Information and Guidance for Clinicians

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-02-26

    This podcast is an overview of the Clinician Outreach and Communication Activity (COCA) Call: Malaria Cases in the U.S. Reach 40-Year High: Information and Guidance for Clinicians. The number of malaria cases reported in the United States in 2011 was the largest since 1971, representing a 14 percent increase from 2010 and a 48 percent increase from 2008. A CDC subject matter expert describes malaria prevention strategies aimed at reducing the risk of malaria in travelers, discusses the diagnosis of malaria in patients with suspect malaria, and explains the treatment options for confirmed malaria cases.  Created: 2/26/2014 by Center for Global Health (CGH); Malaria Branch; Emergency Risk Communication Branch (ERCB); Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR).   Date Released: 2/26/2014.

  13. Potential public health impact of RTS,S malaria candidate vaccine in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauboin, Christophe J; Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Van De Velde, Nicolas; Van Vlaenderen, Ilse

    2015-12-23

    Adding malaria vaccination to existing interventions could help to reduce the health burden due to malaria. This study modelled the potential public health impact of the RTS,S candidate malaria vaccine in 42 malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. An individual-based Markov cohort model was constructed with three categories of malaria transmission intensity and six successive malaria immunity levels. The cycle time was 5 days. Vaccination was assumed to reduce the risk of infection, with no other effects. Vaccine efficacy was assumed to wane exponentially over time. Malaria incidence and vaccine efficacy data were taken from a Phase III trial of the RTS,S vaccine with 18 months of follow-up (NCT00866619). The model was calibrated to reproduce the malaria incidence in the control arm of the trial in each transmission category and published age distribution data. Individual-level heterogeneity in malaria exposure and vaccine protection was accounted for. Parameter uncertainty and variability were captured by using stochastic model transitions. The model followed a cohort from birth to 10 years of age without malaria vaccination, or with RTS,S malaria vaccination administered at age 6, 10 and 14 weeks or at age 6, 7-and-a-half and 9 months. Median and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the number of clinical malaria cases, severe cases, malaria hospitalizations and malaria deaths expected to be averted by each vaccination strategy. Univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the values of key input parameters. Vaccination assuming the coverage of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) at age 6, 10 and 14 weeks is estimated to avert over five million clinical malaria cases, 119,000 severe malaria cases, 98,600 malaria hospitalizations and 31,000 malaria deaths in the 42 countries over the 10-year period. Vaccination at age 6, 7-and-a-half and 9 months with 75% of DTP3 coverage is estimated to avert almost 12.5 million clinical malaria cases

  14. Decision-Making Competence Predicts Domain-Specific Risk Attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua eWeller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision Making Competence (DMC reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804 completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery (A-DMC; Bruine de Bruin, Parker, & Fischhoff, 2007. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC  expected benefits  risk-taking than the DMC  perceived riskrisk-taking path, especially for risk behaviors that may be considered more antisocial in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of the given behavior.

  15. Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Jamie T; Bhatt, Samir; Sinka, Marianne E; Gething, Peter W; Lynch, Michael; Patouillard, Edith; Shutes, Erin; Newman, Robert D; Alonso, Pedro; Cibulskis, Richard E; Ghani, Azra C

    2016-04-01

    59% (Crl 56-64) and mortality rates by 74% (67-82); with additional near-term innovation, incidence was predicted to decline by 74% (70-77) and mortality rates by 81% (76-87). These scenarios were predicted to lead to local elimination in 13 countries under the Accelerate 1 scenario, 20 under Accelerate 2, and 22 under Innovate by 2030, reducing the proportion of the population living in at-risk areas by 36% if elimination is defined at the first administrative unit. However, failing to maintain coverage levels of 2011-13 is predicted to raise case incidence by 76% (Crl 71-80) and mortality rates by 46% (39-51) by 2020. Our findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased. UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Swiss Development Agency, and the US Agency for International Development. Copyright © Griffin et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. 2015. World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an Open Access article published without any waiver of WHO's privileges and immunities under international law, convention, or agreement. This article should not be reproduced for use in association with the promotion of commercial products, services, or any legal entity. There should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation or products. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the Article's original URL.

  16. The position of mefloquine as a 21st century malaria chemoprophylaxis

    OpenAIRE

    Regep Loredana; Adamcova Miriam; Schlagenhauf Patricia; Schaerer Martin T; Rhein Hans-Georg

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Malaria chemoprophylaxis prevents the occurrence of the symptoms of malaria. Travellers to high-risk Plasmodium falciparum endemic areas need an effective chemoprophylaxis. Methods A literature search to update the status of mefloquine as a malaria chemoprophylaxis. Results Except for clearly defined regions with multi-drug resistance, mefloquine is effective against the blood stages of all human malaria species, including the recently recognized fifth species, Plasmodium ...

  17. Transfusion transmitted malaria in three major blood banks of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study estimates the risk of acquiring malaria from a single unit of blood in North of Pakistan. A prospective study was conducted to investigate transfusion transmitted malaria in three major blood banks of Peshawar, Pakistan. A total of 1558 (1534 males and 24 females) healthy volunteer blood donors were screened for ...

  18. Knowledge, attitudes and practices of malaria amongst pregnant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria during pregnancy poses a substantial risk to mother and foetus especially in sub Saharan Africa. The study was therefore carried out to assess the knowledge, attitude and home based practices towards malaria among pregnant women attending antenatal care in Aba South Local Government Area, Abia State.

  19. Prevalence of falciparum malaria amongst pregnant women in Aba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria during pregnancy poses a substantial risk to mother and foetus especially an infection with Plasmodium falciparum. This study was undertaken to assess the prevalence of falciparum malaria among pregnant women in Aba South Local Government Area, Abia State, south-east Nigeria. Blood samples from 432 ...

  20. Global warming and the problem of malaria in Armenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshishyan, A.Sh.; Manukyan, D.V.; Melik-Andreasyan, G.G.; Aleksanyan, Yu.T.; Melkonyan, G.A.; Hovhannisyan, D.M.

    2012-01-01

    The presented in the paper data suggest that air temperature in Armenia is expected to increase both in seasonal and annual terms. In result of the marked increase in temperature, susceptibility of the territories of Armenia towards malaria is expected to increase significantly. Zoning of the territory of Armenia according to the risk of malaria transmission resumption has been performed

  1. A review of malaria in pregnancy | Madziyire | Central African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria causes over 10000 maternal and 200000 neonatal deaths a year globally. Fifty million pregnant women are at risk of acquiring malaria of which half of them are in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is caused by the plasmodium parasite, which is transmitted by the vector female Anopheles mosquito. Plasmodium falciparum is ...

  2. Detection of K76T Mutation in pfcrt Gene as an Applicable Ge-netic Marker for Prediction of Chloroquine Resistant falciparum Malaria in Isolates from an Endemic District of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Raeisi

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study investigated the association between pfcrt, T76 allele and chloroquine resistance in patients with falciparum malaria. Molecular assays for point mutations on drugs resistance-related genes are applied tools for monitoring emerging resistance and surveillance malaria control strategies in endemic areas. The mutant genotype at codon 76 of Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter gene (pfcrt has been proposed as a molecular marker for the faster detection of chloroquine resistance in field. Methods: In 64 samples from patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria from Sarbaz district in southeast of Iran,  the clinical response to chloroquine and the prevalence of K76T  mutations in pfcrt gene were investigated by in vivo and nested-PCR  followed restriction enzyme digestion methods. Results:  The occurrence of the K76T mutation was very high (60 of 64, i.e. 93.75% among these filed isolates. Only 4 of 64 isolates harbored wild type K76 codon and no case was a mixed of K76 and 76T codons. All of the 22 (100% chloroquine-resistant and 16.7% of sensitive isolates were found to harbor the 76T mutation and none was found to contain the wild type (K76 allele. Conclusions: The frequency of chloroquine resistance associated point mutation K76T, in pfcrt gene in this region suggest that detection of this mutation can be applied for predicting chloroquine resistance in epidemiologic settings with sufficiently high sensitivity to make it an attractive alternative to time and labor-consuming in vivo trials.

  3. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  4. Biodiversity can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Zorello Laporta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text] estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate

  5. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2010-01-01

    The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

  6. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edlund Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data. The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM. Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2

  7. Incidence of Severe Malaria Syndromes and Status of Immune Responses among Khat Chewer Malaria Patients in Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsige Ketema

    Full Text Available Although more emphasis has been given to the genetic and environmental factors that determine host vulnerability to malaria, other factors that might have a crucial role in burdening the disease have not been evaluated yet. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the effect of khat chewing on the incidence of severe malaria syndromes and immune responses during malaria infection in an area where the two problems co-exist. Clinical, physical, demographic, hematological, biochemical and immunological data were collected from Plasmodium falciparum mono-infected malaria patients (age ≥ 10 years seeking medication in Halaba Kulito and Jimma Health Centers. In addition, incidences of severe malaria symptoms were assessed. The data were analyzed using SPSS (version 20 software. Prevalence of current khat chewer malaria patients was 57.38% (95%CI =53-61.56%. Malaria symptoms such as hyperpyrexia, prostration and hyperparasitemia were significantly lower (P0.05, IgG3 antibody was significantly higher (P<0.001 among khat chewer malaria patients. Moreover, IgM, IgG, IgG1and IgG3 antibodies had significant negative association (P<0.001 with parasite burden and clinical manifestations of severe malaria symptoms, but not with severe anemia and hypoglycemia. Additionally, a significant increment (P<0.05 in CD4+ T-lymphocyte population was observed among khat users. Khat might be an important risk factor for incidence of some severe malaria complications. Nevertheless, it can enhance induction of humoral immune response and CD4+ T-lymphocyte population during malaria infection. This calls for further investigation on the effect of khat on parasite or antigen-specifc protective malaria immunity and analysis of cytokines released upon malaria infection among khat chewers.

  8. Adolescent pregnancy and the risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and anaemia-a pilot study from Sekondi-Takoradi metropolis, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orish, Verner N; Onyeabor, Onyekachi S; Boampong, Johnson N; Aforakwah, Richmond; Nwaefuna, Ekene; Iriemenam, Nnaemeka C

    2012-09-01

    The problem of malaria in adolescence has been surpassed by the immense burden of malaria in children, most especially less than 5. A substantial amount of work done on malaria in pregnancy in endemic regions has not properly considered the adolescence. The present study therefore aimed at evaluating the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and anaemia infection in adolescent pregnant girls in the Sekondi-Takoradi metropolis, Ghana. The study was carried out at four hospitals in the Sekondi-Takoradi metropolis of the western region of Ghana from January 2010 to October 2010. Structured questionnaires were administered to the consenting pregnant women during their antenatal care visits. Information on education, age, gravidae, occupation and socio-demographic characteristics were recorded. Venous bloods were screened for malaria using RAPID response antibody kit and Geimsa staining while haemoglobin estimations were done by cyanmethemoglobin method. The results revealed that adolescent pregnant girls were more likely to have malaria infection than the adult pregnant women (34.6% verses 21.3%, adjusted OR 1.65, 95% CI, 1.03-2.65, P=0.039). In addition, adolescent pregnant girls had higher odds of anaemia than their adult pregnant women equivalent (43.9% versus 33.2%; adjusted OR 1.63, 95% CI, 1.01-2.62, P=0.046). Taken together, these data suggest that adolescent pregnant girls were more likely to have malaria and anaemia compared to their adult pregnant counterpart. Results from this study shows that proactive adolescent friendly policies and control programmes for malaria and anaemia are needed in this region in order to protect this vulnerable group of pregnant women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Conquering the intolerable burden of malaria: what's new, what's needed: a summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breman, Joel G; Alilio, Martin S; Mills, Anne

    2004-08-01

    Each year, up to three million deaths due to malaria and close to five billion episodes of clinical illness possibly meriting antimalarial therapy occur throughout the world, with Africa having more than 90% of this burden. Almost 3% of disability adjusted life years are due to malaria mortality globally, 10% in Africa. New information is presented in this supplement on malaria-related perinatal mortality, occurrence of human immunodeficiency virus in pregnancy, undernutrition, and neurologic, cognitive, and developmental sequelae. The entomologic determinants of transmission and uses of modeling for program planning and disease prediction and prevention are discussed. New data are presented from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe on the increasing urban malaria problem and on epidemic malaria. Between 6% and 28% of the malaria burden may occur in cities, which comprise less than 2% of the African surface. Macroeconomic projections show that the costs are far greater than the costs of individual cases, with a substantial deleterious impact of malaria on schooling of patients, external investments into endemic countries, and tourism. Poor populations are at greatest risk; 58% of the cases occur in the poorest 20% of the world's population and these patients receive the worst care and have catastrophic economic consequences from their illness. This social vulnerability requires better understanding for improving deployment, access, quality, and use of effective interventions. Studies from Ghana and elsewhere indicate that for every patient with febrile illness assumed to be malaria seen in health facilities, 4-5 episodes occur in the community. Effective actions for malaria control mandate rational public policies; market forces, which often drive sales and use of drugs and other interventions, are unlikely to guarantee their use. Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria is rapidly gaining acceptance as an effective

  10. Driving Strategic Risk Planning With Predictive Modelling For Managerial Accounting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

    for managerial accounting and shows how it can be used to determine the impact of different types of risk assessment input parameters on the variability of important outcome measures. The purpose is to: (i) point out the theoretical necessity of a stochastic risk framework; (ii) present a stochastic framework......Currently, risk management in management/managerial accounting is treated as deterministic. Although it is well-known that risk estimates are necessarily uncertain or stochastic, until recently the methodology required to handle stochastic risk-based elements appear to be impractical and too...... mathematical. The ultimate purpose of this paper is to “make the risk concept procedural and analytical” and to argue that accountants should now include stochastic risk management as a standard tool. Drawing on mathematical modelling and statistics, this paper methodically develops risk analysis approach...

  11. Modeling the influence of local environmental factors on malaria transmission in Benin and its implications for cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles Cottrell

    Full Text Available Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission--even at a very local scale--is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors.As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall, and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages.This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics.

  12. Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

    2014-10-15

    Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001-2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

  13. Young Children’s Risk-Taking: Mothers’ Authoritarian Parenting Predicts Risk-Taking by Daughters but Not Sons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E. Wood

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated how mothers’ parenting behaviors and personal characteristics were related to risk-taking by young children. We tested contrasting predictions from evolutionary and social role theories with the former predicting higher risk-taking by boys compared to girls and the latter predicting that mothers would influence children’s gender role development with risk-taking occurring more in children parented with higher levels of harshness (i.e., authoritarian parenting style. In our study, mothers reported their own gender roles and parenting styles as well as their children’s risk-taking and activities related to gender roles. The results were only partially consistent with the two theories, as the amount of risk-taking by sons and daughters did not differ significantly and risk-taking by daughters, but not sons, was positively related to mothers’ use of the authoritarian parenting style and the girls’ engagement in masculine activities. Risk-taking by sons was not predicted by any combination of mother-related variables. Overall, mothers who were higher in femininity used more authoritative and less authoritarian parenting styles. Theoretical implications as well as implications for predicting and reducing children’s risk-taking are discussed.

  14. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-08-07

    Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (PPeruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  15. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. Methods and Results We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (PPeruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. PMID:26254303

  16. Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

    2015-01-07

    Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria

  17. Malaria or kalimbe: how to choose?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carme Bernard

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Should the Kalimbe (a traditional Amerindian loincloth be banned, based on its association with an increased risk of malaria? Studies on malaria conducted on Amerindian children in the Oyapock region, French Guiana suggest that there is an argument for replacing the Kalimbe with a modern alternative. However, the wider issue of how the positive (risk reduction and related benefits and negative effects (exacerbation of acculturation processes and associated consequences should be assessed needs to be considered before suggesting a change in ancestral behaviour for medical purposes. A multidisciplinary approach is needed, together with caution and humility from epidemiologists.

  18. Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

    2017-08-01

    A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

  19. The potential of large studies for building genetic risk prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    NCI scientists have developed a new paradigm to assess hereditary risk prediction in common diseases, such as prostate cancer. This genetic risk prediction concept is based on polygenic analysis—the study of a group of common DNA sequences, known as singl

  20. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  1. Predictive Risk Factors in the Treatment of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lebriz Hale Aktun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective This study aims to investigate predictive risk factors in the treatment of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM. Patients and Methods A total of 256 pregnant women who underwent 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT during 24–28 weeks of pregnancy were included according to the World Health Organization criteria. Demographic characteristics of the patients, including age, parity, family history of diabetes, body weight before pregnancy, and body weight at the diagnosis of GDM, were recorded. Fasting insulin and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c values at the time of diagnosis were evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups: those requiring insulin treatment (insulin group, n = 89 and those receiving diet therapy (diet group, n = 167 during pregnancy according to the American Diabetes Association recommendations. Results A total of 34.76% of the pregnant women with GDM required insulin treatment. The mean age of these patients was significantly higher compared to the diet group (34.9 ± 0.6 years vs. 31.9 ± 0.6 years; P = 0.004. Body mass index before pregnancy was also significantly higher in the insulin group than that in the diet group (32 ± 0.9 kg/m 2 vs. 29 ± 0.7 kg/m 2 ; P = 0.004. Fasting blood glucose (FBG during OGTT was 105.6 ± 2.1 mg/dL and 96.7 ± 1.1 mg/dL in the insulin group and diet group, respectively ( P < 0.001. There was no significant difference in fasting plasma glucose during OGTT between the groups ( P = 0.069, while plasma glucose at two hours was 161.1 ± 6.8 mg/dL in