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Sample records for malaria risk map

  1. Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Justin M; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pothin, Emilie; Eisele, Thomas P; Gething, Peter W; Eckhoff, Philip A; Moonen, Bruno; Schapira, Allan; Smith, David L

    2017-11-13

    There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

  2. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Design Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007–2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to Somalia. Participants Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Main outcome measure Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. Results The contemporary annual PfPR2–10 map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR2–10). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%–50% PfPR2–10) and the rest as hypoendemic. Conclusion Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning. PMID:22855625

  3. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Abdisalan Mohamed; Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007-2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to contemporary (2010) mean PfPR(2-10) and the maximum annual mean PfPR(2-10) (receptive) from the highest predicted PfPR(2-10) value over the study period as an estimate of receptivity. Randomly sampled communities in Somalia. Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. The contemporary annual PfPR(2-10) map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR(2-10)). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%-50% PfPR(2-10)) and the rest as hypoendemic. Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning.

  4. Mapping Malaria Transmission Risk in Northern Morocco Using Entomological and Environmental Data

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    E. Adlaoui

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria resurgence risk in Morocco depends, among other factors, on environmental changes as well as the introduction of parasite carriers. The aim of this paper is to analyze the receptivity of the Loukkos area, large wetlands in Northern Morocco, to quantify and to map malaria transmission risk in this region using biological and environmental data. This risk was assessed on entomological risk basis and was mapped using environmental markers derived from satellite imagery. Maps showing spatial and temporal variations of entomological risk for Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum were produced. Results showed this risk to be highly seasonal and much higher in rice fields than in swamps. This risk is lower for Afrotropical P. falciparum strains because of the low infectivity of Anopheles labranchiae, principal malaria vector in Morocco. However, it is very high for P. vivax mainly during summer corresponding to the rice cultivation period. Although the entomological risk is high in Loukkos region, malaria resurgence risk remains very low, because of the low vulnerability of the area.

  5. Towards a risk map of malaria for Sri Lanka: the importance of house location relative to vector breeding sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Der Hoek, Wim; Konradsen, Flemming; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H

    2003-01-01

    of house location relative to vector breeding sites for the occurrence of malaria in order to assess the usefulness of this parameter in future malaria risk maps. Such risk maps could be important tools for planning efficient malaria control measures. METHODS: In a group of seven villages in north central......BACKGROUND: In Sri Lanka, the major malaria vector Anopheles culicifacies breeds in pools formed in streams and river beds and it is likely that people living close to such breeding sites are at higher risk of malaria than people living further away. This study was done to quantify the importance...... Sri Lanka, malaria cases were compared with community controls for distance from house to breeding sites and a number of other variables, including type of housing construction and use of anti-mosquito measures. The presence of An. culicifacies in bedrooms was determined by indoor insecticide spray...

  6. Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

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    Alexander Moffett

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

  7. Spatial analysis and mapping of malaria risk in Malawi using point-referenced prevalence of infection data

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    Kazembe Lawrence N

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current malaria control initiatives aim at reducing malaria burden by half by the year 2010. Effective control requires evidence-based utilisation of resources. Characterizing spatial patterns of risk, through maps, is an important tool to guide control programmes. To this end an analysis was carried out to predict and map malaria risk in Malawi using empirical data with the aim of identifying areas where greatest effort should be focussed. Methods Point-referenced prevalence of infection data for children aged 1–10 years were collected from published and grey literature and geo-referenced. The model-based geostatistical methods were applied to analyze and predict malaria risk in areas where data were not observed. Topographical and climatic covariates were added in the model for risk assessment and improved prediction. A Bayesian approach was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Bivariate models showed a significant association of malaria risk with elevation, annual maximum temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET. However in the prediction model, the spatial distribution of malaria risk was associated with elevation, and marginally with maximum temperature and PET. The resulting map broadly agreed with expert opinion about the variation of risk in the country, and further showed marked variation even at local level. High risk areas were in the low-lying lake shore regions, while low risk was along the highlands in the country. Conclusion The map provided an initial description of the geographic variation of malaria risk in Malawi, and might help in the choice and design of interventions, which is crucial for reducing the burden of malaria in Malawi.

  8. Mapping malaria risk using geographic information systems and remote sensing: The case of Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minale, Amare Sewnet; Alemu, Kalkidan

    2018-05-07

    The main objective of this study was to develop a malaria risk map for Bahir Dar City, Amhara, which is situated south of Lake Tana on the Ethiopian plateau. Rainfall, temperature, altitude, slope and land use/land cover (LULC), as well as proximity measures to lake, river and health facilities, were investigated using remote sensing and geographical information systems. The LULC variable was derived from a 2012 SPOT satellite image by supervised classification, while 30-m spatial resolution measurements of altitude and slope came from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Metrological data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency, Bahir Dar branch. These separate datasets, represented as layers in the computer, were combined using weighted, multi-criteria evaluations. The outcome shows that rainfall, temperature, slope, elevation, distance from the lake and distance from the river influenced the malaria hazard the study area by 35%, 15%, 10%, 7%, 5% and 3%, respectively, resulting in a map showing five areas with different levels of malaria hazard: very high (11.2%); high (14.5%); moderate (63.3%); low (6%); and none (5%). The malaria risk map, based on this hazard map plus additional information on proximity to health facilities and current LULC conditions, shows that Bahir Dar City has areas with very high (15%); high (65%); moderate (8%); and low (5%) levels of malaria risk, with only 2% of the land completely riskfree. Such risk maps are essential for planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluating disease control as well as for contemplating prevention and elimination of epidemiological hazards from endemic areas.

  9. How well are malaria maps used to design and finance malaria control in Africa?

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    Judy A Omumbo

    Full Text Available Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed.An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated.91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control.The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be necessary to guide appropriate

  10. How well are malaria maps used to design and finance malaria control in Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omumbo, Judy A; Noor, Abdisalan M; Fall, Ibrahima S; Snow, Robert W

    2013-01-01

    Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed. An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated. 91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control. The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be necessary to guide appropriate financing for malaria

  11. How Well Are Malaria Maps Used to Design and Finance Malaria Control in Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omumbo, Judy A.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Fall, Ibrahima S.; Snow, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed. Materials and Methods An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated. Results 91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control. Conclusion The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be

  12. Mapping malaria risk using environmental and anthropic variables Mapeamento do risco de malaria utilizando variáveis ambientais e antrópicas

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    Mauricio Edilberto Rincón-Romero

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite much research in the identification of areas with malaria, it is urgent to further investigate mapping techniques to achieve better approaches in strategies to prevent, mitigate, and eradicate the mosquito and the illness eventually. By using spatial distributed modeling techniques with Geographical Information Systems (GIS, the study proposes methodology to map malaria risk zoning for the municipality of Buenaventura in Colombia. The model proposed by Craig et al.¹ using climatic information was adapted to the conditions of the study area regarding scale and spatial resolution. Geomorphologic and anthropic variables were added to improve spatial allocation of areas with higher risk of contracting the illness, refining zoning. Then, they were contrasted with the locations reported by health entities², taking into account spatial distribution. The comparison of results shows a decrease in the area obtained initially using the Craig et al. model¹ (1999, from 5,422.4 km² (89.1% of the municipality's territory to 624.3km² (approximately 10% of the municipality's area, yielding a total reduction of 78.8% when environmental and anthropic variables were included in the model. Data show that of the 9,863 cases reported during 2001 to 2005 for 20 selected towns as basis for the amount of surveyed malaria cases², 1,132 were located in the very high-risk areas, 7,662 were in the areas of moderate risk, and 1,066 cases in low-risk areas, showing that 89% of the cases reported fell into the areas with higher risk for malaria.A pesar de muchas investigaciones en la identificación de las zonas con presencia de malaria, es urgente profundizar las técnicas de su mapeo para lograr mejores aproximaciones, para ayudar a focalizar los esfuerzos y recursos en prevención, mitigación y estrategias de erradicación del mosquito y eventualmente de la enfermedad. Usando modelación espacial distribuida con herramientas de Sistemas de Información Geogr

  13. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007.

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    Simon I Hay

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Efficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007.A total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2-10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia, 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+, and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2-10 5 to or = 40% areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion, with a smaller number (0.11 billion at low stable risk.High levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are

  14. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Simon I; Guerra, Carlos A; Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M; Kabaria, Caroline W; Manh, Bui H; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Brooker, Simon; Smith, David L; Moyeed, Rana A; Snow, Robert W

    2009-03-24

    Efficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007. A total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2-10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2-10 5 to or = 40%) areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion), with a smaller number (0.11 billion) at low stable risk. High levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are found in the

  15. Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2015-12-02

    Dec 2, 2015 ... control in time and space to be prepared for outbreaks, which ... developing dynamic and area-specific risk maps to ... disease outbreaks including vaccination (Haydon et ... analyse malaria data against certain environmental.

  16. A global map of dominant malaria vectors

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    Sinka Marianne E

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global maps, in particular those based on vector distributions, have long been used to help visualise the global extent of malaria. Few, however, have been created with the support of a comprehensive and extensive evidence-based approach. Methods Here we describe the generation of a global map of the dominant vector species (DVS of malaria that makes use of predicted distribution maps for individual species or species complexes. Results Our global map highlights the spatial variability in the complexity of the vector situation. In Africa, An. gambiae, An. arabiensis and An. funestus are co-dominant across much of the continent, whereas in the Asian-Pacific region there is a highly complex situation with multi-species coexistence and variable species dominance. Conclusions The competence of the mapping methodology to accurately portray DVS distributions is discussed. The comprehensive and contemporary database of species-specific spatial occurrence (currently available on request will be made directly available via the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP website from early 2012.

  17. A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010.

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    Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Smith, David L; Guerra, Carlos A; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Johnston, Geoffrey L; Tatem, Andrew J; Hay, Simon I

    2011-12-20

    Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and

  18. A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gething Peter W

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR and the basic reproductive number (PfR. Methods Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. Results An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. Conclusions The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The

  19. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  20. Malaria Disease Mapping in Malaysia based on Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) Model

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    Azah Samat, Nor; Mey, Liew Wan

    2017-09-01

    Disease mapping is the visual representation of the geographical distribution which give an overview info about the incidence of disease within a population through spatial epidemiology data. Based on the result of map, it helps in monitoring and planning resource needs at all levels of health care and designing appropriate interventions, tailored towards areas that deserve closer scrutiny or communities that lead to further investigations to identify important risk factors. Therefore, the choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important because production of disease risk map relies on the model used. This paper proposes Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model to estimate the relative risk for Malaria in Malaysia. The analysis involved using the number of Malaria cases that obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia. The outcomes of analysis are displayed through graph and map, including Malaria disease risk map that constructed according to the estimation of relative risk. The distribution of high and low risk areas of Malaria disease occurrences for all states in Malaysia can be identified in the risk map.

  1. 365 MAPPING MALARIA CASE EVENT AND FACTORS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Key words: Malaria case event; prevention; vulnerability; GIS; Nigeria. Introduction. The mapping of ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management Vol. 6 No.4 2013 ... review articles Tanser et al., (2000), indicate that. Satellite ...

  2. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  3. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freya M Shearer

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated.A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines.We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified.

  4. Cost effective malaria risk control using remote sensing and environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdel Hamid

    2012-06-01

    Malaria transmission in many part of the world specifically in Bangladesh and southern African countries is unstable and epidemic. An estimate of over a million cases is reported annually. Malaria is heterogeneous, potentially due to variations in ecological settings, socio-economic status, land cover, and agricultural practices. Malaria control only relies on treatment and supply of bed networks. Drug resistance to these diseases is widespread. Vector control is minimal. Malaria control in those countries faces many formidable challenges such as inadequate accessibility to effective treatment, lack of trained manpower, inaccessibility of endemic areas, poverty, lack of education, poor health infrastructure and low health budgets. Health facilities for malaria management are limited, surveillance is inadequate, and vector control is insufficient. Control can only be successful if the right methods are used at the right time in the right place. This paper aims to improve malaria control by developing malaria risk maps and risk models using satellite remote sensing data by identifying, assessing, and mapping determinants of malaria associated with environmental, socio-economic, malaria control, and agricultural factors.

  5. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope O. Alimi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis. Methods The risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors. Results Results from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001 than a control group of geographically random points. Conclusion In this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

  6. Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... less than the risk of catching this infection. Chloroquine has been the drug of choice for protecting against malaria. But because of resistance, it is now only suggested for use in areas where Plasmodium vivax , P. oval , and ...

  7. Prevalence and risk factors of asymptomatic malaria among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Enhanced malaria control has resulted in its reduction in some areas of Sub Saharan Africa including Rwanda. However, asymptomatic hosts serve as a reservoir for the malaria parasite for communities. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of malaria parasites and risk factors associated ...

  8. Challenges for modelling spatio-temporal variations of malaria risk in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, R.; Chirombo, J.; Tompkins, A. M.

    2012-04-01

    the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a negative binomial generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) is adopted, which includes structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. The parameters in this spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows posterior predictive distributions for disease risk to be derived for each spatial location and time period. A novel visualisation technique is then used to display seasonal probabilistic forecasts of malaria risk, derived from the developed model using pre-defined risk category thresholds, on a map. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty a particular malaria risk category (high, medium or low); in order to effectively target limited resources to those districts most at risk for a given season.

  9. Spatial modelling of malaria risk factors in Ruhuha sector in the east ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial clusters of malaria occurrence were subsequently determined using Getis and Ord spatial statistics. This cluster analysis showed that malaria distribution is characterized by zones with high malaria risk, so called hot spots, zones with moderate malaria risk known as not significant spots and zones of low malaria risk ...

  10. Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natacha Protopopoff

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. CONCLUSIONS: In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

  11. Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

    2009-11-25

    Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

  12. Developing a spatial-statistical model and map of historical malaria prevalence in Botswana using a staged variable selection procedure

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    Mabaso Musawenkosi LH

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several malaria risk maps have been developed in recent years, many from the prevalence of infection data collated by the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project, and using various environmental data sets as predictors. Variable selection is a major obstacle due to analytical problems caused by over-fitting, confounding and non-independence in the data. Testing and comparing every combination of explanatory variables in a Bayesian spatial framework remains unfeasible for most researchers. The aim of this study was to develop a malaria risk map using a systematic and practicable variable selection process for spatial analysis and mapping of historical malaria risk in Botswana. Results Of 50 potential explanatory variables from eight environmental data themes, 42 were significantly associated with malaria prevalence in univariate logistic regression and were ranked by the Akaike Information Criterion. Those correlated with higher-ranking relatives of the same environmental theme, were temporarily excluded. The remaining 14 candidates were ranked by selection frequency after running automated step-wise selection procedures on 1000 bootstrap samples drawn from the data. A non-spatial multiple-variable model was developed through step-wise inclusion in order of selection frequency. Previously excluded variables were then re-evaluated for inclusion, using further step-wise bootstrap procedures, resulting in the exclusion of another variable. Finally a Bayesian geo-statistical model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was fitted to the data, resulting in a final model of three predictor variables, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. Each was independently and significantly associated with malaria prevalence after allowing for spatial correlation. This model was used to predict malaria prevalence at unobserved locations, producing a smooth risk map for the whole country. Conclusion We have

  13. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Increased Risk for Malaria Infection

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast describes research done in Ghana examining a correlation between type 2 diabetes and a possible increased risk for malaria infection in adults. Dr. Manoj Menon, a medical officer in the Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria in the Center for Global Health, discusses questions the study raises.

  14. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

  15. Using low-cost drones to map malaria vector habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Andy; Makame, Makame; Cross, Dónall; Majambere, Silas; Msellem, Mwinyi

    2017-01-14

    There is a growing awareness that if we are to achieve the ambitious goal of malaria elimination, we must compliment indoor-based vector control interventions (such as bednets and indoor spraying) with outdoor-based interventions such as larval source management (LSM). The effectiveness of LSM is limited by our capacity to identify and map mosquito aquatic habitats. This study provides a proof of concept for the use of a low-cost (drone (DJI Phantom) for mapping water bodies in seven sites across Zanzibar including natural water bodies, irrigated and non-irrigated rice paddies, peri-urban and urban locations. With flying times of less than 30 min for each site, high-resolution (7 cm) georeferenced images were successfully generated for each of the seven sites, covering areas up to 30 ha. Water bodies were readily identifiable in the imagery, as well as ancillary information for planning LSM activities (access routes to water bodies by road and foot) and public health management (e.g. identification of drinking water sources, mapping individual households and the nature of their construction). The drone-based surveys carried out in this study provide a low-cost and flexible solution to mapping water bodies for operational dissemination of LSM initiatives in mosquito vector-borne disease elimination campaigns. Generated orthomosaics can also be used to provide vital information for other public health planning activities.

  16. Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

    2013-01-01

    Background: The study assessed aspects of malaria infection, prevention and treatment in a population of resettled pregnant women in South Sudan. Methods: During April and May 2008, a cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate malaria prevalence and to assess the use of malaria risk...... ¼ 3.20, 95% CI 1.26–8.16; p ¼ 0.015). Conclusions: The results suggest that educational attainment need not be very advanced to affect practices of malaria prevention and treatment. Primary school attendance was a stronger predictor for use of malaria risk reduction measures than any of the other...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

  17. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Increased Risk for Malaria Infection

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-23

    This podcast describes research done in Ghana examining a correlation between type 2 diabetes and a possible increased risk for malaria infection in adults. Dr. Manoj Menon, a medical officer in the Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria in the Center for Global Health, discusses questions the study raises.  Created: 9/23/2010 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases; Center for Global Health.   Date Released: 9/23/2010.

  18. Risk factors for helminth, malaria, and HIV infection in pregnancy in Entebbe, Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick William Woodburn

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Infections during pregnancy may have serious consequences for both mother and baby. Assessment of risk factors for infections informs planning of interventions and analysis of the impact of infections on health outcomes.To describe risk factors for helminths, malaria and HIV in pregnant Ugandan women before intervention in a trial of de-worming in pregnancy.The trial recruited 2,507 pregnant women between April 2003 and November 2005. Participants were interviewed and blood and stool samples obtained; location of residence at enrolment was mapped. Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral and other risk factors were modelled using logistic regression.There was a high prevalence of helminth, malaria and HIV infection, as previously reported. All helminths and malaria parasitemia were more common in younger women, and education was protective against every infection. Place of birth and/or tribe affected all helminths in a pattern consistent with the geographical distribution of helminth infections in Uganda. Four different geohelminths (hookworm, Trichuris, Ascaris and Trichostrongylus showed a downwards trend in prevalence during the enrolment period. There was a negative association between hookworm and HIV, and between hookworm and low CD4 count among HIV-positive women. Locally, high prevalence of schistosomiasis and HIV occurred in lakeshore communities.Interventions for helminths, malaria and HIV need to target young women both in and out of school. Antenatal interventions for malaria and HIV infection must continue to be promoted. Women originating from a high risk area for a helminth infection remain at high risk after migration to a lower-risk area, and vice versa, but overall, geohelminths seem to be becoming less common in this population. High risk populations, such as fishing communities, require directed effort against schistosomiasis and HIV infection.

  19. Mapping hypoendemic, seasonal malaria in rural Bandarban, Bangladesh: a prospective surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glass Gregory

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Until recently the Chittagong Hill tracts have been hyperendemic for malaria. A past cross-sectional RDT based survey in 2007 recorded rates of approximately 15%. This study was designed to understand the present epidemiology of malaria in this region, to monitor and facilitate the uptake of malaria intervention activities of the national malaria programme and to serve as an area for developing new and innovative control strategies for malaria. Methods This research field area was established in two rural unions of Bandarban District of Bangladesh north of Bandarban city, which are known to be endemic for malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum. The project included the following elements: a a demographic surveillance system including an initial census with updates every four months, b periodic surveys of knowledge attitude and practice, c a geographic information system, d weekly active and continuous passive surveillance for malaria infections using smears, rapid tests and PCR, f monthly mosquito surveillance, and e daily weather measures. The programme included both traditional and molecular methods for detecting malaria as well as lab methods for speciating mosquitoes and detecting mosquitoes infected with sporozoites. Results The demographic surveillance enumerated and mapped 20,563 people, 75% of which were tribal non-Bengali. The monthly mosquito surveys identified 22 Anopheles species, eight of which were positive by circumsporozoite ELISA. The annual rate of malaria was close to 1% with 85% of cases in the rainy months of May-October. Definitive clustering identified in the low transmission season persisted during the high transmission season. Conclusion This demographically and geographically defined area, near to the Myanmar border, which is also hypoendemic for malaria, will be useful for future studies of the epidemiology of malaria and for evaluation of strategies for malaria control including new drugs and

  20. Mapping of mosquito breeding sites in malaria endemic areas in Pos Lenjang, Kuala Lipis, Pahang, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Rohani; Ali, Wan N W M; Nor, Zurainee M; Ismail, Zamree; Hadi, Azahari A; Ibrahim, Mohd N; Lim, Lee H

    2011-12-13

    The application of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to the study of vector transmitted diseases considerably improves the management of the information obtained from the field survey and facilitates the study of the distribution patterns of the vector species. As part of a study to assess remote sensing data as a tool for vector mapping, geographical features like rivers, small streams, forest, roads and residential area were digitized from the satellite images and overlaid with entomological data. Map of larval breeding habitats distribution and map of malaria transmission risk area were developed using a combination of field data, satellite image analysis and GIS technique. All digital data in the GIS were displayed in the WGS 1984 coordinate system. Six occasions of larval surveillance were also conducted to determine the species of mosquitoes, their characteristics and the abundance of habitats. Larval survey studies showed that anopheline and culicine larvae were collected and mapped from 79 and 67 breeding sites respectively. Breeding habitats were located at 100-400 m from human settlement. Map of villages with 400 m buffer zone visualizes that more than 80% of Anopheles maculatus s.s. immature habitats were found within the buffer zone. This study amplifies the need for a broadening of the GIS approach which is emphasized with the aim of rejuvenating the dynamic aspect of entomological studies in Malaysia. In fact, the use of such basic GIS platforms promote a more rational basis for strategic planning and management in the control of endemic diseases at the national level.

  1. Malaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupasquier, Isabelle

    1989-01-01

    Malaria, the greatest pandemia in the world, claims an estimated one million lives each year in Africa alone. While it may still be said that for the most part malaria is found in what is known as the world's poverty belt, cases are now frequently diagnosed in western countries. Due to resistant strains of malaria which have developed because of…

  2. Malaria prevalence, spatial clustering and risk factors in a low endemic area of Eastern Rwanda: a cross sectional study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rulisa, Stephen; Kateera, Fredrick; Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Agaba, Steven; Dukuzumuremyi, Javier; Baas, Lisette; de Dieu Harelimana, Jean; Mens, Petra F.; Boer, Kimberly R.; de Vries, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    Rwanda reported significant reductions in malaria burden following scale up of control intervention from 2005 to 2010. This study sought to; measure malaria prevalence, describe spatial malaria clustering and investigate for malaria risk factors among health-centre-presumed malaria cases and their

  3. Quantifying the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria in 2007: a demographic study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Dellicour

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive and contemporary estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria are not currently available, particularly for endemic areas outside of Africa. We derived global estimates of the number of women who became pregnant in 2007 in areas with Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax transmission.A recently published map of the global limits of P. falciparum transmission and an updated map of the limits of P. vivax transmission were combined with gridded population data and growth rates to estimate total populations at risk of malaria in 2007. Country-specific demographic data from the United Nations on age, sex, and total fertility rates were used to estimate the number of women of child-bearing age and the annual rate of live births. Subregional estimates of the number of induced abortions and country-specific stillbirths rates were obtained from recently published reviews. The number of miscarriages was estimated from the number of live births and corrected for induced abortion rates. The number of clinically recognised pregnancies at risk was then calculated as the sum of the number of live births, induced abortions, spontaneous miscarriages, and stillbirths among the population at risk in 2007. In 2007, 125.2 million pregnancies occurred in areas with P. falciparum and/or P. vivax transmission resulting in 82.6 million live births. This included 77.4, 30.3, 13.1, and 4.3 million pregnancies in the countries falling under the World Health Organization (WHO regional offices for South-East-Asia (SEARO and the Western-Pacific (WPRO combined, Africa (AFRO, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean (EURO/EMRO, and the Americas (AMRO, respectively. Of 85.3 million pregnancies in areas with P. falciparum transmission, 54.7 million occurred in areas with stable transmission and 30.6 million in areas with unstable transmission (clinical incidence <1 per 10,000 population/year; 92.9 million occurred in areas with P. vivax transmission, 53

  4. Mapping of mosquito breeding sites in malaria endemic areas in Pos Lenjang, Kuala Lipis, Pahang, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Rohani

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The application of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS to the study of vector transmitted diseases considerably improves the management of the information obtained from the field survey and facilitates the study of the distribution patterns of the vector species. Methods As part of a study to assess remote sensing data as a tool for vector mapping, geographical features like rivers, small streams, forest, roads and residential area were digitized from the satellite images and overlaid with entomological data. Map of larval breeding habitats distribution and map of malaria transmission risk area were developed using a combination of field data, satellite image analysis and GIS technique. All digital data in the GIS were displayed in the WGS 1984 coordinate system. Six occasions of larval surveillance were also conducted to determine the species of mosquitoes, their characteristics and the abundance of habitats. Results Larval survey studies showed that anopheline and culicine larvae were collected and mapped from 79 and 67 breeding sites respectively. Breeding habitats were located at 100-400 m from human settlement. Map of villages with 400 m buffer zone visualizes that more than 80% of Anopheles maculatus s.s. immature habitats were found within the buffer zone. Conclusions This study amplifies the need for a broadening of the GIS approach which is emphasized with the aim of rejuvenating the dynamic aspect of entomological studies in Malaysia. In fact, the use of such basic GIS platforms promote a more rational basis for strategic planning and management in the control of endemic diseases at the national level.

  5. Mapping of mosquito breeding sites in malaria endemic areas in Pos Lenjang, Kuala Lipis, Pahang, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The application of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to the study of vector transmitted diseases considerably improves the management of the information obtained from the field survey and facilitates the study of the distribution patterns of the vector species. Methods As part of a study to assess remote sensing data as a tool for vector mapping, geographical features like rivers, small streams, forest, roads and residential area were digitized from the satellite images and overlaid with entomological data. Map of larval breeding habitats distribution and map of malaria transmission risk area were developed using a combination of field data, satellite image analysis and GIS technique. All digital data in the GIS were displayed in the WGS 1984 coordinate system. Six occasions of larval surveillance were also conducted to determine the species of mosquitoes, their characteristics and the abundance of habitats. Results Larval survey studies showed that anopheline and culicine larvae were collected and mapped from 79 and 67 breeding sites respectively. Breeding habitats were located at 100-400 m from human settlement. Map of villages with 400 m buffer zone visualizes that more than 80% of Anopheles maculatus s.s. immature habitats were found within the buffer zone. Conclusions This study amplifies the need for a broadening of the GIS approach which is emphasized with the aim of rejuvenating the dynamic aspect of entomological studies in Malaysia. In fact, the use of such basic GIS platforms promote a more rational basis for strategic planning and management in the control of endemic diseases at the national level. PMID:22166101

  6. Risk of malaria in British residents returning from malarious areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips-Howard, P A; Radalowicz, A; Mitchell, J; Bradley, D J

    1990-01-01

    OBJECTIVES--To identify which British residents travelling abroad are at greatest risk of malaria infection, and to determine the efficacy of malaria chemoprophylaxis for preventing P falciparum infections in tropical Africa. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study (case-base linkage) with routine national surveillance systems. Denominators (base population) were obtained from monitoring a random sample of returning British travellers with the international passenger survey. Numerators (cases) were obtained from reports of malaria infections in British residents, through the Malaria Reference Laboratory network. SETTING--International passenger survey conducted at passport control of international airports in Britain. Malaria reports received nationally were collated centrally in London. SUBJECTS--2948 British residents (0.2%) returning to Britain in 1987 randomly selected and questioned and 1052 British residents with microscopically confirmed malaria infections in 1987, whose case reports were reviewed and on whom additional data were collected by postal survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Annual incidence subdivided by categories of risk. Chemoprophylactic efficacy for east and west Africa by principal regimens and compliance. RESULTS--Annual rates of reported infection per 100,000 travellers to Oceania were 4100; to west and east Africa were 375 and 172 respectively; to Latin America, the Far East, and the Middle East were 12, 2, and 1 respectively. Immigrants visiting friends and relatives in Ghana and Nigeria were at greatest risk (1303 and 952 per 100,000 respectively) in west Africa. Business travellers to Kenya experienced the highest attack rates in east Africa (465 per 100,000). Age-sex specific attack rates varied by region. No prophylaxis was reported to have been used by 23% of British visitors to west Africa, 17% to east Africa, 46% to central or southern Africa, and 58% visiting south Asia. The efficacy of chloroquine plus proguanil against P falciparum

  7. Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... bites you, the parasite can get into your blood. The parasite lays eggs, which develop into more parasites. They ... cells until you get very sick. Because the parasites live in the blood, malaria can also be spread through other ways. ...

  8. Mapping cancer, cardiovascular and malaria research in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.S. Rodrigues

    2000-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents performance indicators for the Brazilian cancer, cardiovascular and malaria research areas from 1981 to 1995. The data show an increasing number of papers since 1981 and author numbers indicate a continuous growth of the scientific community and suggest an expected impact of scientific activity on biomedical education. The data also characterize cardiovascular research as a well-established area and cancer research as a faster growing consolidating field. The 1989-1994 share of Brazilian articles among world publications shows a growing trend for the cancer (1.61 and cardiovascular (1.59 areas, and a decrease for the malaria area (0.89. The burden of the three diseases on society is contrasted by the small number of consolidated Brazilian research groups, and a questionable balance of thematic activity, especially with regard to malaria. Brazilian periodicals play an important role in increasing the international visibility of science produced in the country. Cancer and cardiovascular research is strongly concentrated in the Southeastern and in Southern regions of Brazil, especially in São Paulo (at least one address from São Paulo in 64.5% of the 962 cancer articles and in 66.9% of the 2250 cardiovascular articles, the second state being Rio de Janeiro with at least one address in 14.1 and 11% of those articles, respectively. Malaria research (468 articles is more evenly distributed across the country, following the pattern of the endemic distribution of the disease. Surveying these national indicator trends can be useful to establish policies in the decision process about health sciences, medical education and public health.

  9. The incidence of malaria in travellers to South-East Asia: is local malaria transmission a useful risk indicator?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jänisch Thomas

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The presence of ongoing local malaria transmission, identified though local surveillance and reported to regional WHO offices, by S-E Asian countries, forms the basis of national and international chemoprophylaxis recommendations in western countries. The study was designed to examine whether the strategy of using malaria transmission in a local population was an accurate estimate of the malaria threat faced by travellers and a correlate of malaria in returning travellers. Methods Malaria endemicity was described from distribution and intensity in the local populations of ten S-E Asian destination countries over the period 2003-2008 from regionally reported cases to WHO offices. Travel acquired malaria was collated from malaria surveillance reports from the USA and 12 European countries over the same period. The numbers of travellers visiting the destination countries was based on immigration and tourism statistics collected on entry of tourists to the destination countries. Results In the destination countries, mean malaria rates in endemic countries ranged between 0.01 in Korea to 4:1000 population per year in Lao PDR, with higher regional rates in a number of countries. Malaria cases imported into the 13 countries declined by 47% from 140 cases in 2003 to 66 in 2008. A total of 608 cases (27.3% Plasmodium falciparum (Pf were reported over the six years, the largest number acquired in Indonesia, Thailand and Korea. Four countries had an incidence > 1 case per 100,000 traveller visits; Burma (Myanmar, Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos (range 1 to 11.8-case per 100,000 visits. The remaining six countries rates were Conclusion The intensity of malaria transmission particularly sub-national activity did not correlate with the risk of travellers acquiring malaria in the large numbers of arriving visitors. It is proposed to use a threshold incidence of > 1 case per 100,000 visits to consider targeted malaria prophylaxis

  10. The role of age, ethnicity and environmental factors in modulating malaria risk in Rajasthali, Bangladesh

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    Haque Ubydul

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is endemic in the Rajasthali region of the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh and the Rajasthali region is the most endemic area of Bangladesh. Quantifying the role of environmental and socio-economic factors in the local spatial patterns of malaria endemicity can contribute to successful malaria control and elimination. This study aimed to investigate the role of environmental factors on malaria risk in Rajasthali and to quantify the geographical clustering in malaria risk unaccounted by these factors. Method A total of 4,200 (78.9%; N = 5,322 households were targeted in Rajasthali in July, 2009, and 1,400 individuals were screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax. These data were linked to environmental and socio-economic data in a geographical information system. To describe the association between environmental factors and malaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. The study investigated the role of environmental factors on malaria risk by calculating their population-attributable fractions (PAF, and used residual semivariograms to quantify the geographical clustering in malaria risk unaccounted by these factors. Results Overall malaria prevalence was 11.7%. Out of 5,322 households, 44.12% households were living in areas with malaria prevalence of ≥ 10%. The results from statistical analysis showed that age, ethnicity, proximity to forest, household density, and elevation were significantly and positively correlated with the malaria risk and PAF estimation. The highest PAF of malaria prevalence was 47.7% for third tertile (n = 467 of forest cover, 17.6% for second tertile (n = 467 of forest cover and 19.9% for household density >1,000. Conclusion Targeting of malaria health interventions at small spatial scales in Bangladesh should consider the social and socio-economic risk factors identified as well as alternative methods for improving equity of access to interventions

  11. The impact of endemic and epidemic malaria on the risk of stillbirth in two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wort, Ulrika Uddenfeldt; Hastings, Ian; Mutabingwa, T. K.; Brabin, Bernard J.

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The impact of malaria on the risk of stillbirth is still under debate. The aim of the present analysis was to determine comparative changes in stillbirth prevalence between two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns in order to estimate the malaria attributable

  12. A quantitative brain map of experimental cerebral malaria pathology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Strangward

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The murine model of experimental cerebral malaria (ECM has been utilised extensively in recent years to study the pathogenesis of human cerebral malaria (HCM. However, it has been proposed that the aetiologies of ECM and HCM are distinct, and, consequently, no useful mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of HCM can be obtained from studying the ECM model. Therefore, in order to determine the similarities and differences in the pathology of ECM and HCM, we have performed the first spatial and quantitative histopathological assessment of the ECM syndrome. We demonstrate that the accumulation of parasitised red blood cells (pRBCs in brain capillaries is a specific feature of ECM that is not observed during mild murine malaria infections. Critically, we show that individual pRBCs appear to occlude murine brain capillaries during ECM. As pRBC-mediated congestion of brain microvessels is a hallmark of HCM, this suggests that the impact of parasite accumulation on cerebral blood flow may ultimately be similar in mice and humans during ECM and HCM, respectively. Additionally, we demonstrate that cerebrovascular CD8+ T-cells appear to co-localise with accumulated pRBCs, an event that corresponds with development of widespread vascular leakage. As in HCM, we show that vascular leakage is not dependent on extensive vascular destruction. Instead, we show that vascular leakage is associated with alterations in transcellular and paracellular transport mechanisms. Finally, as in HCM, we observed axonal injury and demyelination in ECM adjacent to diverse vasculopathies. Collectively, our data therefore shows that, despite very different presentation, and apparently distinct mechanisms, of parasite accumulation, there appear to be a number of comparable features of cerebral pathology in mice and in humans during ECM and HCM, respectively. Thus, when used appropriately, the ECM model may be useful for studying specific pathological features of HCM.

  13. A quantitative brain map of experimental cerebral malaria pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strangward, Patrick; Haley, Michael J; Shaw, Tovah N; Schwartz, Jean-Marc; Greig, Rachel; Mironov, Aleksandr; de Souza, J Brian; Cruickshank, Sheena M; Craig, Alister G; Milner, Danny A; Allan, Stuart M; Couper, Kevin N

    2017-03-01

    The murine model of experimental cerebral malaria (ECM) has been utilised extensively in recent years to study the pathogenesis of human cerebral malaria (HCM). However, it has been proposed that the aetiologies of ECM and HCM are distinct, and, consequently, no useful mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of HCM can be obtained from studying the ECM model. Therefore, in order to determine the similarities and differences in the pathology of ECM and HCM, we have performed the first spatial and quantitative histopathological assessment of the ECM syndrome. We demonstrate that the accumulation of parasitised red blood cells (pRBCs) in brain capillaries is a specific feature of ECM that is not observed during mild murine malaria infections. Critically, we show that individual pRBCs appear to occlude murine brain capillaries during ECM. As pRBC-mediated congestion of brain microvessels is a hallmark of HCM, this suggests that the impact of parasite accumulation on cerebral blood flow may ultimately be similar in mice and humans during ECM and HCM, respectively. Additionally, we demonstrate that cerebrovascular CD8+ T-cells appear to co-localise with accumulated pRBCs, an event that corresponds with development of widespread vascular leakage. As in HCM, we show that vascular leakage is not dependent on extensive vascular destruction. Instead, we show that vascular leakage is associated with alterations in transcellular and paracellular transport mechanisms. Finally, as in HCM, we observed axonal injury and demyelination in ECM adjacent to diverse vasculopathies. Collectively, our data therefore shows that, despite very different presentation, and apparently distinct mechanisms, of parasite accumulation, there appear to be a number of comparable features of cerebral pathology in mice and in humans during ECM and HCM, respectively. Thus, when used appropriately, the ECM model may be useful for studying specific pathological features of HCM.

  14. Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiwat, H.; Hardjopawiro, L.S.; Takken, W.; Villegas, L.

    2012-01-01

    Background Suriname was a high malaria risk country before the introduction of a new five-year malaria control program in 2005, the Medical Mission Malaria Programme (MM-MP). Malaria was endemic in the forested interior, where especially the stabile village communities were affected. Case

  15. malaria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    children who presented with malaria symptoms at the same clinic and tested positive or ... phagocytes immunity and induce anti-inflammatory immune response ...... treatment gap, Malawi will be ready to submit a validation request for virtual .... Conclusions. Vaccination and quarantine are the important disease preventive.

  16. Malaria Transmission Risk Factor In West Java (Epidemiology Study About Vector, Plasmodium parasite and Environmental Risk Factors For Malaria Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukman Hakim

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the territory is divided with the province of Banten, in West Java there are five regencies that defined as malaria endemic area, there are Ciamis, Tasikmalaya, Garut, Cianjur and Sukabumi. Sufferer, concentrated in southern coastal areas (Indonesian Ocean starting from the beach of Kalipucang at Ciamis up to coast of Cikakak at Sukabumi which borders the province of Banten and also mountain and plantations areas. Malaria morbidity incidence risk factors is differ in each of these endemic areas. In general is the presence of malaria patients without symptoms who can be a source of infection that so difficult to know its existence. Still the number of standing water that can become mosqui-to breeding places of Anopheles spp, such as fish pond, small puddle on the riverside, shrimp pond, mangrove forests that potentially at the beginning of the rainy season, the fields during rice that potential when the rice growing and the river that potential in the dry season. The existence of high population mobility and also the number of vegetation in the surrounding residential population and the existence of cattle are placed close to settle-ments.

  17. Prevalence and risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in pregnant women of eastern Sudan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamis Amar H

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pregnant women are more susceptible to malaria, which is associated with serious adverse effects on pregnancy. The presentation of malaria during pregnancy varies according to the level of transmission in the area. Our study aimed to demonstrate the prevalence and risk factors for malaria (age, parity and gestational age among pregnant women of eastern Sudan, which is characterized by unstable malaria transmission. Methods The prevalence and possible risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum malaria were investigated in 744 pregnant Sudanese women attending the antenatal clinic of New Haifa Teaching Hospital, eastern Sudan, during October 2003-April 2004. Results A total 102 (13.7% had P. falciparum malaria, 18(17.6% of these were severe cases (jaundice and severe anaemia. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that, age and parity were not associated with malaria. Women who attended the antenatal clinic in the third trimester were at highest risk for malaria (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.02–2.4; P Women with malaria had significantly lower mean haemoglobin (9.4 g/dl, 95% CI 9.1–9.7 versus 10.7, CI 10.6–10.8, P Conclusion The results suggest that P. falciparum malaria is common in pregnant women attending antenatal care and that anaemia is an important complication. Preventive measures (chemoprophylaxis and insecticide-treated bednets may be beneficial in this area for all women irrespective of age or parity.

  18. International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert W Snow

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The international financing of malaria control has increased significantly in the last ten years in parallel with calls to halve the malaria burden by the year 2015. The allocation of funds to countries should reflect the size of the populations at risk of infection, disease, and death. To examine this relationship, we compare an audit of international commitments with an objective assessment of national need: the population at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in 2007.The national distributions of populations at risk of stable P. falciparum transmission were projected to the year 2007 for each of 87 P. falciparum-endemic countries. Systematic online- and literature-based searches were conducted to audit the international funding commitments made for malaria control by major donors between 2002 and 2007. These figures were used to generate annual malaria funding allocation (in US dollars per capita population at risk of stable P. falciparum in 2007. Almost US$1 billion are distributed each year to the 1.4 billion people exposed to stable P. falciparum malaria risk. This is less than US$1 per person at risk per year. Forty percent of this total comes from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Substantial regional and national variations in disbursements exist. While the distribution of funds is found to be broadly appropriate, specific high population density countries receive disproportionately less support to scale up malaria control. Additionally, an inadequacy of current financial commitments by the international community was found: under-funding could be from 50% to 450%, depending on which global assessment of the cost required to scale up malaria control is adopted.Without further increases in funding and appropriate targeting of global malaria control investment it is unlikely that international goals to halve disease burdens by 2015 will be achieved. Moreover, the additional financing

  19. Remote Sensing as a Landscape Epidemiologic Tool to Identify Villages at High Risk for Malaria Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Louisa R.; Rodriquez, Mario H.; Dister, Sheri W.; Rodriquez, Americo D.; Rejmankova, Eliska; Ulloa, Armando; Meza, Rosa A.; Roberts, Donald R.; Paris, Jack F.; Spanner, Michael A.; hide

    1994-01-01

    A landscape approach using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies was developed to discriminate between villages at high and low risk for malaria transmission, as defined by adult Anopheles albimanus abundance. Satellite data for an area in southern Chiapas, Mexico were digitally processed to generate a map of landscape elements. The GIS processes were used to determine the proportion of mapped landscape elements surrounding 40 villages where An. albimanus data had been collected. The relationships between vector abundance and landscape element proportions were investigated using stepwise discriminant analysis and stepwise linear regression. Both analyses indicated that the most important landscape elements in terms of explaining vector abundance were transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture. Discriminant functions generated for these two elements were able to correctly distinguish between villages with high ind low vector abundance, with an overall accuracy of 90%. Regression results found both transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture proportions to be predictive of vector abundance during the mid-to-late wet season. This approach, which integrates remotely sensed data and GIS capabilities to identify villages with high vector-human contact risk, provides a promising tool for malaria surveillance programs that depend on labor-intensive field techniques. This is particularly relevant in areas where the lack of accurate surveillance capabilities may result in no malaria control action when, in fact, directed action is necessary. In general, this landscape approach could be applied to other vector-borne diseases in areas where: 1. the landscape elements critical to vector survival are known and 2. these elements can be detected at remote sensing scales.

  20. A cross-sectional analysis of traditional medicine use for malaria alongside free antimalarial drugs treatment amongst adults in high-risk malaria endemic provinces of Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suswardany, Dwi Linna; Sibbritt, David W; Supardi, Sudibyo; Pardosi, Jerico F; Chang, Sungwon; Adams, Jon

    2017-01-01

    The level of traditional medicine use, particularly Jamu use, in Indonesia is substantial. Indonesians do not always seek timely treatment for malaria and may seek self-medication via traditional medicine. This paper reports findings from the first focused analyses of traditional medicine use for malaria in Indonesia and the first such analyses worldwide to draw upon a large sample of respondents across high-risk malaria endemic areas. A sub-study of the Indonesia Basic Health Research/Riskesdas Study 2010 focused on 12,226 adults aged 15 years and above residing in high-risk malaria-endemic provinces. Logistic regression was undertaken to determine the significant associations for traditional medicine use for malaria symptoms. Approximately one in five respondents use traditional medicine for malaria symptoms and the vast majority experiencing multiple episodes of malaria use traditional medicine alongside free antimalarial drug treatments. Respondents consuming traditional medicine for general health/common illness purposes every day (odds ratio: 3.75, 95% Confidence Interval: 2.93 4.79), those without a hospital in local vicinity (odds ratio: 1.31, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.10 1.57), and those living in poorer quality housing, were more likely to use traditional medicine for malaria symptoms. A substantial percentage of those with malaria symptoms utilize traditional medicine for treating their malaria symptoms. In order to promote safe and effective malaria treatment, all providing malaria care in Indonesia need to enquire with their patients about possible traditional medicine use.

  1. A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luty Adrian JF

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. Methods Receptivity (vectorial capacity and infectivity (vector susceptibility were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. Results The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. Conclusion The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk

  2. Recent Change of locality as Risk factor for Malaria Fever Among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recent Change of locality as Risk factor for Malaria Fever Among New Residents of Ahoada East Local Government Area in Southern Nigeria. ... an endemic region, which serves as an indicator of exposure to new variants of P falciparum; for which specific immunity is lacking, is a significant risk factor for malaria fever.

  3. Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria transmission in Korogwe, Tanzania: implications for malaria control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mmbando, Bruno Paul; Cole-Lewis, H; Sembuche, S

    2008-01-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for infant mortality, morbidity, growth retardation, poor cognitive development, and chronic diseases. Maternal exposure to diseases such as malaria, HIV, and syphilis has been shown to have a significant impact on birth weight (BW). This study was aimed...... babies compared to first parity women (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.98, P=0.045). Similarly, the risk of LBW was higher in women who had delayed MCH gestational booking and in women who conceived during high malaria transmission seasons. There was high degree of preference of digits ending with 0...

  4. Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    dividing and are far more noticeable than the small amount of clear cyto- plasm surrounding them (Figs 10.6a & 10.6b). Mature schizonts contain 8...edema Same as P. vivax 16 10 • Topics on The paThology of proTozoan and invasive arThropod diseases Figure 10.38 Transmission electron micrograph of...mesangiopathic glo- merulonephropathy caused by quartan malaria, deposition of immune complexes may be demonstrated by electron or immunofluorescence microscopy

  5. Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria transmission in Korogwe, Tanzania: implications for malaria control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mmbando, Bruno Paul; Cole-Lewis, H; Sembuche, S

    2008-01-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for infant mortality, morbidity, growth retardation, poor cognitive development, and chronic diseases. Maternal exposure to diseases such as malaria, HIV, and syphilis has been shown to have a significant impact on birth weight (BW). This study was aimed...... at determining whether there was a difference in rates of LBW in areas of varying malaria transmission intensity in Korogwe, Tanzania. Retrospective data for one year (June 2004-May 2005) in three maternal and child health (MCH) clinics in the district were analysed. Villages were stratified into three strata...... babies compared to first parity women (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.98, P=0.045). Similarly, the risk of LBW was higher in women who had delayed MCH gestational booking and in women who conceived during high malaria transmission seasons. There was high degree of preference of digits ending with 0...

  6. Pregnant women carrying female fetuses are at higher risk of placental malaria infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishag Adam

    Full Text Available The pathophysiology of the placental malaria is not fully understood. If there is a fetal sex-specific susceptibility to malaria infection, this might add to the previous knowledge on the immunology, endocrinology and pathophysiology of placental malaria infections.This study was conducted to assess whether the sex of the fetus was associated with placental malaria infections.A cross-sectional study was performed including a secondary analysis of a cohort of women who were investigated for prevalence and risk factors (including fetal sex for placental malaria in eastern Sudan. Placental histology was used to diagnose placental malaria infections.Among 339 women enrolled, the mean (SD age was 25.8 (6.7 years and parity was 2.7 (2.2. Among the new born babies, 157 (46.3% were male and 182 (53.7% were female. Five (1.5%, 9 (2.7% and 103 (30.4% of the 339 placentas had active, active-chronic, past-chronic malaria infection on histopathology examination respectively, while 222 (65.5% of them showed no malaria infection. Logistic regression analyses showed no associations between maternal age or parity and placental malaria infections. Women who have blood group O (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.19-3.10; P = 0.007 and women who had female new born were at higher risk for placental malaria infections (OR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.57-4.13; P< 0.001.Fetal gender may be a novel risk factor for placental malaria. In this work the female placentas were at higher risk for malaria infections than the male placentas.

  7. Analyzing actual risk in malaria-deferred donors through selective serologic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Megan L; Goff, Tami; Gibble, Joan; Steele, Whitney R; Leiby, David A

    2013-08-01

    Approximately 150,000 US blood donors are deferred annually for travel to malaria-endemic areas. However, the majority do not travel to the high-risk areas of Africa associated with transfusion-transmitted malaria (TTM) but visit low-risk areas such as Mexico. This study tests for Plasmodium infection among malaria-deferred donors, particularly those visiting Mexico. Blood donors deferred for malaria risk (travel, residence, or previous infection) provided blood samples and completed a questionnaire. Plasma was tested for Plasmodium antibodies by enzyme immunoassay (EIA); repeat-reactive (RR) samples were considered positive and tested by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Accepted donors provided background testing data. During 2005 to 2011, a total of 5610 malaria-deferred donors were tested by EIA, including 5412 travel deferrals. Overall, 88 (1.6%) were EIA RR; none were PCR positive. Forty-nine (55.7%) RR donors previously had malaria irrespective of deferral category, including 34 deferred for travel. Among 1121 travelers to Mexico, 90% visited Quintana Roo (no or very low risk), but just 2.2% visited Oaxaca/Chiapas (moderate or high risk). Only two Mexican travelers tested RR; both previously had malaria not acquired in Mexico. Travel to Mexico represents a large percentage of US donors deferred for malaria risk; however, these donors primarily visit no- or very-low-risk areas. No malaria cases acquired in Mexico were identified thereby supporting previous risk estimates. Consideration should be given to allowing blood donations from U.S. donors who travel to Quintana Roo and other low-risk areas in Mexico. A more effective approach to preventing TTM would be to defer all donors with a history of malaria, even if remote. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  8. Malaria Risk Factors in Kaligesing, Purworejo District, Central Java Province, Indonesia: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahyaningrum, Pratiwi; Sulistyawati, Sulistyawati

    2018-05-01

    Malaria remains a public health concern worldwide, including Indonesia. Purworejo is a district in which endemic of malaria, they have re-setup to entering malaria elimination in 2021. Accordingly, actions must be taken to accelerate and guaranty that the goal will reach based on an understanding of the risk factors for malaria. Thus, we analysed malaria risk factors based on human and housing conditions in Kaligesing, Purworejo, Indonesia. A case-control study was carried out in Kaligesing subdistrict, Purworejo, Indonesia in July to August 2017. A structured questionnaire and checklist were used to collect data from 96 participants, who consisted of 48 controls and 48 cases. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were performed. Bivariate analysis found that education level, the presence of a cattle cage within 100 m of the house, not sleeping under a bednet the previous night, and not closing the doors and windows from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. were significantly ( p ≤0.25) associated with malaria. Of these factors, only not sleeping under a bednet the previous night and not closing the doors and windows from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. were significantly associated with malaria. The findings of this study demonstrate that potential risk factor for Malaria should be paid of attention all the time, particularly for an area which is targeting Malaria elimination.

  9. Application of geographically-weighted regression analysis to assess risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiath, Mansour M; Cisse, Badara; Ndiaye, Jean Louis; Gomis, Jules F; Bathiery, Ousmane; Dia, Anta Tal; Gaye, Oumar; Faye, Babacar

    2015-11-18

    In Senegal, considerable efforts have been made to reduce malaria morbidity and mortality during the last decade. This resulted in a marked decrease of malaria cases. With the decline of malaria cases, transmission has become sparse in most Senegalese health districts. This study investigated malaria hotspots in Keur Soce sites by using geographically-weighted regression. Because of the occurrence of hotspots, spatial modelling of malaria cases could have a considerable effect in disease surveillance. This study explored and analysed the spatial relationships between malaria occurrence and socio-economic and environmental factors in small communities in Keur Soce, Senegal, using 6 months passive surveillance. Geographically-weighted regression was used to explore the spatial variability of relationships between malaria incidence or persistence and the selected socio-economic, and human predictors. A model comparison of between ordinary least square and geographically-weighted regression was also explored. Vector dataset (spatial) of the study area by village levels and statistical data (non-spatial) on malaria confirmed cases, socio-economic status (bed net use), population data (size of the household) and environmental factors (temperature, rain fall) were used in this exploratory analysis. ArcMap 10.2 and Stata 11 were used to perform malaria hotspots analysis. From Jun to December, a total of 408 confirmed malaria cases were notified. The explanatory variables-household size, housing materials, sleeping rooms, sheep and distance to breeding site returned significant t values of -0.25, 2.3, 4.39, 1.25 and 2.36, respectively. The OLS global model revealed that it explained about 70 % (adjusted R(2) = 0.70) of the variation in malaria occurrence with AIC = 756.23. The geographically-weighted regression of malaria hotspots resulted in coefficient intercept ranging from 1.89 to 6.22 with a median of 3.5. Large positive values are distributed mainly in the southeast

  10. Malaria parasite carriage and risk determinants in a rural population: a malariometric survey in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kateera, Fredrick; Mens, Petra F; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Ingabire, Chantal M; Muragijemariya, Liberata; Karinda, Parfait; Grobusch, Martin P; Mutesa, Leon; van Vugt, Michèle

    2015-01-21

    Based on routine health facility case data, Rwanda has achieved a significant malaria burden reduction in the past ten years. However, community-based malaria parasitaemia burden and reasons for continued residual infections, despite a high coverage of control interventions, have yet to be characterized. Measurement of malaria parasitaemia rates and evaluation of associated risk factors among asymptomatic household members in a rural community in Rwanda were conducted. A malariometric household survey was conducted between June and November 2013, involving 12,965 persons living in 3,989 households located in 35 villages in a sector in eastern Rwanda. Screening for malaria parasite carriage and collection of demographic, socio-economic, house structural features, and prior fever management data, were performed. Logistic regression models with adjustment for within- and between-households clustering were used to assess malaria parasitaemia risk determinants. Overall, malaria parasitaemia was found in 652 (5%) individuals, with 518 (13%) of households having at least one parasitaemic member. High malaria parasite carriage risk was associated with being male, child or adolescent (age group 4-15), reported history of fever and living in a household with multiple occupants. A malaria parasite carriage risk-protective effect was associated with living in households of, higher socio-economic status, where the head of household was educated and where the house floor or walls were made of cement/bricks rather than mud/earth/wood materials. Parasitaemia cases were found to significantly cluster in the Gikundamvura area that neighbours marshlands. Overall, Ruhuha Sector can be classified as hypo-endemic, albeit with a particular 'cell of villages' posing a higher risk for malaria parasitaemia than others. Efforts to further reduce transmission and eventually eliminate malaria locally should focus on investments in programmes that improve house structure features (that limit

  11. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

    2014-12-02

    Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

  12. Spatial modelling of malaria risk factors in Ruhuha sector in the east of Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuyishimire, J.; Kateera, F.; Mugisha, J.; Amer, S.; Mens, P.

    2017-01-01

    Malaria is a vector borne disease posing a severe health risk to the population of Sub Saharan Africa and particularly in the East African Rift-Valley Region. The fact that malaria is still killing hundreds of thousands of people annually is due to insufficient researchers about its causing factors

  13. Incidence and risk factors for Malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea in children under 5 in UNHCR refugee camps: A retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hershey Christine L

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR refugee camps are located predominantly in rural areas of Africa and Asia in protracted or post-emergency contexts. Recognizing the importance of malaria, pneumonia and diarrheal diseases as major causes of child morbidity and mortality in refugee camps, we analyzed data from the UNHCR Health Information System (HIS to estimate incidence and risk factors for these diseases in refugee children younger than five years of age. Methods Data from 90 UNHCR camps in 16 countries, including morbidity, mortality, health services and refugee health status, were obtained from the UNHCR HIS for the period January 2006 to February 2010. Monthly camp-level data were aggregated to yearly estimates for analysis and stratified by location in Africa (including Yemen or Asia. Poisson regression models with random effects were constructed to identify factors associated with malaria, pneumonia and diarrheal diseases. Spatial patterns in the incidence of malaria, pneumonia and diarrheal diseases were mapped to identify regional heterogeneities. Results Malaria and pneumonia were the two most common causes of mortality, with confirmed malaria and pneumonia each accounting for 20% of child deaths. Suspected and confirmed malaria accounted for 23% of child morbidity and pneumonia accounted for 17% of child morbidity. Diarrheal diseases were the cause of 7% of deaths and 10% of morbidity in children under five. Mean under-five incidence rates across all refugee camps by region were: malaria [Africa 84.7 cases/1000 U5 population/month (95% CI 67.5-102.0, Asia 2.2/1000/month (95% CI 1.4-3.0]; pneumonia [Africa 59.2/1000/month (95% CI 49.8-68.7, Asia 254.5/1000/month (95% CI 207.1-301.8]; and diarrheal disease [Africa 35.5/1000/month (95% CI 28.7-42.4, Asia 69.2/1000/month (95% CI 61.0-77.5]. Measles was infrequent and accounted for a small proportion of child morbidity (503 cases, Conclusions As in

  14. Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, N.; Adimi, F.; Soebiyanto, R. P.; Kiang, R. K.

    2010-01-01

    Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the

  15. Knowledge, attitudes and practices of business travelers regarding malaria risk and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Roger; Schlagenhauf, Patricia; Amsler, Lorenz; Steffen, Robert

    2003-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the knowledge, attitudes and practices of Swiss business travelers with regard to malaria. Questionnaires printed in three languages were distributed by employers, travel agencies and tropical medicine specialists to business travelers with destinations in malaria endemic countries. In total, 401 questionnaires were evaluated. Thirty-three percent visited high-risk areas, 27% visited low-risk areas, and 40% visited only malaria-free areas within endemic countries. Among the investigated business travelers, 6% had experienced malaria infection, and 29% had previously had blood smears tested for malaria at least once. Almost all business travelers, 95%, knew that mosquitoes are the main vectors of malaria. The infection risk between dusk and dawn was known to 71%, and the incubation time to 36%. Apart from fever (99%) and headache (63%), other malaria symptoms were known to only 13% to 36% of the travelers. If signs of illness such as fever and headache occurred, 63% would react adequately and seek medical advice within 24 h. Only 16% of the travelers to African high-risk areas followed the recommended behavior concerning anti-mosquito and antimalarial strategies; 31% of those on trips to low-risk areas used an adequate protective strategy. Of the business travelers using chemoprophylaxis during travel, just 50% continued intake post travel, as requested, after leaving the endemic area. Business travelers are well informed regarding the mode of transmission and the risk of malaria at specific destinations but tend to comply poorly with anti-mosquito and chemoprophylactic strategies. The knowledge, attitudes and practices of business travelers with regard to malaria prevention need to be improved.

  16. Reduced risk of uncomplicated malaria episodes in children with a+-thalassemia in northeastern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevold, Anders; Lusingu, John P; Mmbando, Bruno

    2008-01-01

    the susceptibility to uncomplicated malaria. We compared the risk of suffering from febrile, uncomplicated malaria between individuals carrying three common RBC polymorphisms (sickle cell trait, alpha(+)-thalassemia, and glucose-6-phosphate-dehydrogenase deficiency) and controls. The study was performed in an area...... measured with flow cytometry and ELISA assays, respectively. Regression analyses showed that alpha(+)-thalassemia was associated with a reduced risk of uncomplicated malaria episodes and that this advantageous effect seemed to be more predominant in children older than 5 years of age, but was independent...

  17. Dominant risk factors for malaria at Puskesmas Labuhan Ruku, Talawi Batu Bara, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyanoer, P. C.

    2018-03-01

    Malaria is a disease which increases in number almost every year. Morbidity rate of malaria tends to decline from 4.1 to 0.85 per 1000 population at risk in 2005 to 2015. In North Sumatera alone three areas found with the highest incidences are District of Madina, Batubara, and Asahan. However such high number do not parallel with the utilization of health services in the area.This study is an analytic study withcase-controldesign to analyses the contribution of environmental and social factors that potentially cause malaria among people living in malaria-endemic areas. The recruited samples are 146 samples. All cases are registered patient at Puskesmas Labuhan Ruku while controls are from the neighboring area. The result showed that incidence of malaria is most affected by the habit of repellent used and being outside of the house in the evening.

  18. Environmental factors and population at risk of malaria in Nkomazi municipality, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeola, A M; Botai, O J; Olwoch, J M; Rautenbach, C J de W; Adisa, O M; Taiwo, O J; Kalumba, A M

    2016-05-01

    Nkomazi local municipality of South Africa is a high-risk malaria region with an incidence rate of about 500 cases per 100 000. We examined the influence of environmental factors on population (age group) at risk of malaria. r software was used to statistically analyse data. Using remote sensing technology, a Landsat 8 image of 4th October 2015 was classified using object-based classification and a 5-m resolution. Spot height data were used to generate a digital elevation model of the area. A total of 60 718 malaria cases were notified across 48 health facilities in Nkomazi municipality between January 1997 and August 2015. Malaria incidence was highly associated with irrigated land (P = 0.001), water body (P = 0.011) and altitude ≤400 m (P = 0.001). The multivariate model showed that with 10% increase in the extent of irrigated areas, malaria risk increased by almost 39% in the entire study area and by almost 44% in the 2-km buffer zone of selected villages. Malaria incidence is more pronounced in the economically active population aged 15-64 and in males. Both incidence and case fatality rate drastically declined over the study period. A predictive model based on environmental factors would be useful in the effort towards malaria elimination by fostering appropriate targeting of control measures and allocating of resources. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Gender roles and perceptions of malaria risk in agricultural communities of Mwea Division in Central Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldu, Dawit Okubatsion; Haile, Zelalem Teka

    2015-01-01

    We examined gender differences in the perception of high malaria risk in women and factors associated with a high number of malaria episodes in the Mwea Division of Central Kenya. Ethnographic and successive free listing interviews (an open-ended data collection technique used to show the relation of items in a given domain) with 53 key informants and structured interviews conducted from June to October 2010 with 250 respondents who represented the socioeconomic and geographical diversity of the area were analyzed. Qualitative text analysis and inferential statistics were employed. While a greater proportion of men (51.6%) attributed women's high malaria risk to their "biological weakness," most women believed that their high malaria risk was related to their role in the agricultural fields (43.6%) and to their household responsibilities (23.1%). Compared to men, women were more likely to work in wet aspects of agricultural activities (χ(2) (2, N = 153) = 13.47, p gender roles in agricultural communities in Mwea may play an important role in explaining disparity in reported malaria incidence. While identification of ecological and economic determinants of malaria is important, gender-based research can make a significant contribution to the development of effective and sustainable malaria reduction strategies.

  20. Seismic risk maps of Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saegesser, R.; Rast, B.; Merz, H.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic Risk Maps of Switzerland have been developed under the auspices of the Swiss Federal Division on Nuclear Safety. They are primarily destined for the use of owners of future nuclear power plants. The results will be mandatory for these future sites. The results will be shown as contourmaps of equal intensities for average return periods of 500, 1000, 10 000... years. This general form will not restrict the use of the results to nuclear power plants only, rather allows their applicability to any site or installation of public interest (such as r.a. waste deposits, hydropower plants, etc.). This follows the recommendations of the UNESCO World Conference (Paris, February 1976). In the study MSK 64 INTENSITY was chosen. The detailed scale allowed a precise handling of historical data and separates the results from continuously changing state-of-the-art correlations to acceleration and other input motion parameters. The method used is the probabilistic theory developed by C.A. Cornell and others at MIT in the late 1960's with the program in the version of the US Geological Survey by R. McGuire. In the study, the program was extended for the use of the continuous attenuation law by Sponheuer, azimuth-dependency in the attenuation relation, a quadratic intensity-frequency relation, large number of gross sources and output modifications with respect to the mapping program used. To determine the basic parameters, more than 3000 independent events in an area of approximately 240 000km 2 -Switzerland with its neighbouring parts of Italy, Austria, Germany and France- were systematically classified (and relocated where necessary)

  1. Assessment of individual and household malaria risk factors among women in a South African village.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutegeki, Ezra; Chimbari, Moses John; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2017-11-01

    There is need to understand how various malaria risk factors interact at the individual, household and community levels, as well as wider contexts, in order to guide the design and implementation of effective and more comprehensive control strategies. Using a cross-sectional approach, this study investigated various malaria risk factors among residents of Mgedula Village, a malaria-endemic community located in Jozini Local Municipality, UMkhanyakude District, South Africa from May to August 2014. Data from 121 randomly sampled women were collected using close-ended questionnaires. The women were aged between 18 and 40 years; and had been residents in the study area for five years or more. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to measure the association between a history of malaria infection in the previous 12 months and various potential risk factors. The results showed that practicing animal husbandry (OR 20), residing in household structures that had not been sprayed (OR 16.7) and cross-border movement (OR 14.3) were greatly associated with malaria infection. Other factors that were significantly associated with this infection included illiteracy (OR 9.1), having a largely populated household (OR 6.1) and low income (OR 1.65). Individuals with a history of malaria infection were less likely to lack basic malaria-related knowledge (OR 0.58), to have negative attitude towards malaria (OR 0.29) and also to have poor malaria practices (OR 0.3). There was no association between a malaria episode and residing at a long distance from the health facility. Indoor residual spraying indicated a notable reduction of malaria risk at the community level. However, other socio-economic, geographical and socio-demographic factors interacted at different levels to increase this risk among different individuals and households. To achieve malaria elimination by the year 2018, these aspects should be considered when developing and implementing elimination strategies at

  2. 2011 FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Lidar: Nashua River Watershed (Massachusetts, New Hampshire)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data are the lidar points collected for FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) for the Nashua River Watershed. This area falls in portions of...

  3. Urban and architectural risk factors for malaria in indigenous Amazonian settlements in Brazil: a typological analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leandro-Reguillo, Patricia; Thomson-Luque, Richard; Monteiro, Wuelton M; de Lacerda, Marcus V G

    2015-07-22

    In the Amazon, m alaria is highly endemic in indigenous populations, which are often considered one of the last barriers to malaria elimination due to geographic isolation. Although the improvement of housing conditions is a good strategy towards the control and prevention of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, this preventive practice has been barely undertaken in Latin America. An analysis of the architectural and urban features of indigenous Amazonian populations is essential to define and adapt these vector control measures. A total of 32 villages of 29 different ethnicities were studied and mapped by reviewing literature and visual information, and using a geographic information system. The most important architectural and urban characteristics influencing malaria were analysed according to the following categories: number of households and dimensions, supporting area, openings, materials, lifespan and location. Housing typologies found were classified within each of these variables. The results of this typological analysis included an easy-to-handle working template and revealing of features that benefit or hamper the presence of malaria vectors in Amerindians communities. Among risk factors, presence of open eaves, permeable walls, open-side constructions, large number of sleepers indoors, temporary-ephemeral houses, linear villages along stream banks, houseboats villages, poor urban drainage and villages surrounded by anthropogenic environments were highlighted. Indigenous settlements very permissive for anophelines were identified in ethnic groups, such as the Yanomami, Palikur, Paumari, Waimiri-Atroari and Wajãpi. Positive features were also recognized, including opaque and closed houses, large radial villages on bare soil, highly elevated stilted houses and the fire indoors, found among the Yawalapiti, Ashaninka, and Gavião-Parkatejê tribes. However, as Amazonian indigenous settlement typologies vary greatly even among villages of the same ethnic

  4. Seismic risk maps of Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saegesser, R.; Rast, B.; Merz, H.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic Risk Maps of Switzerland have been developed under the auspices of the Swiss Federal Division on Nuclear Safety. They are primarily destined for the use of owners of future nuclear power plants. The results will be mandatory for these future sites. The results will be shown as contourmaps of equal intensities for average return periods of 500, 1 000, 10 000... years. This general form will not restrict the use of the results to nuclear power plants only, rather allows their applicability to any site or installation of public interest (such as r.a. waste deposits, hydropower plants, etc.). This follows the recommendations of the UNESCO World Conference (Paris, February 1976). In the study MSK 64 INTENSITY was chosen. The detailed scale allowed a precise handling of historical data and separates the results from continuously changing state of the art correlations to acceleration and other input motion parameters. The method used is the probabilistic theory developed by C.A. Cornell and others at MIT in the late 1960's with the program in the version of the US Geological Survey by R. McGuire. (Auth.)

  5. Using remote sensing to map larval and adult populations of Anopheles hyrcanus (Diptera: Culicidae a potential malaria vector in Southern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger François

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although malaria disappeared from southern France more than 60 years ago, suspicions of recent autochthonous transmission in the French Mediterranean coast support the idea that the area could still be subject to malaria transmission. The main potential vector of malaria in the Camargue area, the largest river delta in southern France, is the mosquito Anopheles hyrcanus (Diptera: Culicidae. In the context of recent climatic and landscape changes, the evaluation of the risk of emergence or re-emergence of such a major disease is of great importance in Europe. When assessing the risk of emergence of vector-borne diseases, it is crucial to be able to characterize the arthropod vector's spatial distribution. Given that remote sensing techniques can describe some of the environmental parameters which drive this distribution, satellite imagery or aerial photographs could be used for vector mapping. Results In this study, we propose a method to map larval and adult populations of An. hyrcanus based on environmental indices derived from high spatial resolution imagery. The analysis of the link between entomological field data on An. hyrcanus larvae and environmental indices (biotopes, distance to the nearest main productive breeding sites of this species i.e., rice fields led to the definition of a larval index, defined as the probability of observing An. hyrcanus larvae in a given site at least once over a year. Independent accuracy assessments showed a good agreement between observed and predicted values (sensitivity and specificity of the logistic regression model being 0.76 and 0.78, respectively. An adult index was derived from the larval index by averaging the larval index within a buffer around the trap location. This index was highly correlated with observed adult abundance values (Pearson r = 0.97, p An. hyrcanus larval and adult populations from the landscape indices. Conclusion This work shows that it is possible to use

  6. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  7. Deconstructing the risk for malaria in United States donors deferred for travel to Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Bryan; Kleinman, Steven; Custer, Brian; Cable, Ritchard; Wilkinson, Susan L; Steele, Whitney; High, Patrick M; Wright, David

    2011-11-01

    More than 66,000 blood donors are deferred annually in the United States due to travel to malaria-endemic areas of Mexico. Mexico accounts for the largest share of malaria travel deferrals, yet it has extremely low risk for malaria transmission throughout most of its national territory, suggesting a suboptimal balance between blood safety and availability. This study sought to determine whether donor deferral requirements might be relaxed for parts of Mexico without compromising blood safety. Travel destination was recorded from a representative sample of presenting blood donors deferred for malaria travel from six blood centers during 2006. We imputed to these donors reporting Mexican travel a risk for acquiring malaria equivalent to Mexican residents in the destination location, adjusted for length of stay. We extrapolated these results to the overall US blood donor population. Risk for malaria in Mexico varies significantly across endemic areas and is greatest in areas infrequently visited by study donors. More than 70% of blood donor deferrals were triggered by travel to the state of Quintana Roo on the Yucatán Peninsula, an area of very low malaria transmission. Eliminating the travel deferral requirement for all areas except the state of Oaxaca might result in the recovery of almost 65,000 blood donors annually at risk of approximately one contaminated unit collected every 20 years. Deferral requirements should be relaxed for presenting donors who traveled to areas within Mexico that confer exceptionally small risks for malaria, such as Quintana Roo. © 2011 American Association of Blood Banks.

  8. Risk assessment and prevention of malaria among Italian troops in Afghanistan, 2002 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peragallo, Mario S; Sarnicola, Giuseppe; Boccolini, Daniela; Romi, Roberto; Mammana, Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Malaria prevention policy is different among coalition troops in Afghanistan, ranging from the combined use of suppressive and terminal chemoprophylaxis to the absence of any prophylactic regimen. The objective of this study was to assess the compliance with malaria prevention measures and the risk of malaria among Italian troops in Afghanistan. Target population was the cohort of 32,500 army soldiers deployed in Afghanistan, 2002 to 2011; eligible subjects were the 21,900 soldiers stationed in endemic areas, who were prescribed mefloquine chemoprophylaxis. Adherence to chemoprophylaxis was assessed by a cross-sectional study in a volunteer sample of 5,773 (26.4%) of eligible subjects. The risk of malaria was assessed by detecting malaria cases in the target population. Mefloquine chemoprophylaxis was administered to 4,123 (71.4%) of the 5,773 enrolled soldiers and 3,575 (86.7%) of these took it regularly; however, compliance dropped from 80.9% (2,592/3,202) in 2002 to 2006 to 59.5% (1,531/2,571) in 2007 to 2011 (p Afghanistan, and one Plasmodium vivax case was reported in Italy, yielding an incidence rate of 3.24 cases per 10,000 person-months of exposure (1/3,091) during the transmission season of 2003. In spite of the decreasing compliance with chemoprophylaxis, suggesting a low perception of the risk of malaria, this study confirmed the good tolerability of mefloquine in the military. The risk of malaria for Italian troops in Afghanistan was very low, and chemoprophylaxis was suspended in 2012. A similar policy may be adopted by the generality of International Security Assistance Force troops, and any chemoprophylaxis may be restricted to soldiers stationing in areas where the risk of malaria is substantial. © 2013 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  9. The impact of endemic and epidemic malaria on the risk of stillbirth in two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutabingwa TK

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The impact of malaria on the risk of stillbirth is still under debate. The aim of the present analysis was to determine comparative changes in stillbirth prevalence between two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns in order to estimate the malaria attributable component. Methods A retrospective analysis was completed of stillbirth differences between primigravidae and multigravidae in relation to malaria cases and transmission patterns for two different areas of Tanzania with a focus on the effects of the El Niño southern climatic oscillation (ENSO. One area, Kagera, experiences outbreaks of malaria, and the other area, Morogoro, is holoendemic. Delivery and malaria data were collected over a six year period from records of the two district hospitals in these locations. Results There was a significantly higher prevalence of low birthweight in primigravidae compared to multigravidae for both data sets. Low birthweight and stillbirth prevalence (17.5% and 4.8% were significantly higher in Kilosa compared to Ndolage (11.9% and 2.4%. There was a significant difference in stillbirth prevalence between Ndolage and Kilosa between malaria seasons (2.4% and 5.6% respectively, p Conclusion Malaria exposure during pregnancy has a delayed effect on birthweight outcomes, but a more acute effect on stillbirth risk.

  10. Erythrocytic ferroportin reduces intracellular iron accumulation, hemolysis, and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, De-Liang; Wu, Jian; Shah, Binal N; Greutélaers, Katja C; Ghosh, Manik C; Ollivierre, Hayden; Su, Xin-Zhuan; Thuma, Philip E; Bedu-Addo, George; Mockenhaupt, Frank P; Gordeuk, Victor R; Rouault, Tracey A

    2018-03-30

    Malaria parasites invade red blood cells (RBCs), consume copious amounts of hemoglobin, and severely disrupt iron regulation in humans. Anemia often accompanies malaria disease; however, iron supplementation therapy inexplicably exacerbates malarial infections. Here we found that the iron exporter ferroportin (FPN) was highly abundant in RBCs, and iron supplementation suppressed its activity. Conditional deletion of the Fpn gene in erythroid cells resulted in accumulation of excess intracellular iron, cellular damage, hemolysis, and increased fatality in malaria-infected mice. In humans, a prevalent FPN mutation, Q248H (glutamine to histidine at position 248), prevented hepcidin-induced degradation of FPN and protected against severe malaria disease. FPN Q248H appears to have been positively selected in African populations in response to the impact of malaria disease. Thus, FPN protects RBCs against oxidative stress and malaria infection. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  11. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  12. Malaria and Tropical Travel

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Malaria is a serious mosquito-borne disease that can lead to death. This podcast discusses malaria risk when traveling to tropical areas, as well as how to protect yourself and your family from malaria infection.

  13. Malaria prevalence, risk factors and spatial distribution in a hilly forest area of Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ubydul Haque

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health concern in Bangladesh and it is highly endemic in the Chittagong Hill Tracts where prevalence was 11.7% in 2007. One sub-district, Rajasthali, had a prevalence of 36%. Several interventions were introduced in early 2007 to control malaria. This study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of these intensive early stage interventions on malaria in Bangladesh. This prevalence study assesses whether or not high malaria prevalence remains, and if so, which areas and individuals remain at high risk of infection. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A 2-stage cluster sampling technique was used to sample 1,400 of 5,322 (26.3% households in Rajasthali, and screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax. Overall malaria prevalence was 11.5%. The proportions of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and infection with both species were 93.2%, 1.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and spatial cluster analyses were performed separately. Sex, age, number of bed nets, forest cover, altitude and household density were potential risk factors. A statistically significant malaria cluster was identified. Significant differences among risk factors were observed between cluster and non-cluster areas. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria has significantly decreased within 2 years after onset of intervention program. Both aspects of the physical and social environment, as well as demographic characteristics are associated with spatial heterogeneity of risk. The ability to identify and locate these areas provides a strategy for targeting interventions during initial stages of intervention programs. However, in high risk clusters of transmission, even extensive coverage by current programs leaves transmission ongoing at reduced levels. This indicates the need for continued development of new strategies for identification and treatment as well as improved understanding of the patterns and

  14. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  15. Risk of malaria transmission through blood transfusion and its detection by serological method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, M.; Akhtar, G.N.; Rashid, S.; Lodhi, Y.

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To assess the risk of transmission of malaria through blood transfusion, and compare efficacy of testing by immuno chromatographic (ICT) devices vis a vis peripheral blood film (PBF). Results: Amongst healthy blood donors we did not find even a single case of malaria and there was no report of persistent post transfusion pyrexia. We are unable to comment on species frequency in blood donors. However, amongst known patients of malaria we found a higher frequency of Plasmodium viax(P.v) as compared to Plasmodium falciparum(P.f). Testing by serological method, helped us to diagnose 5% of our patients who were missed by peripheral blood films. Conclusion: Between properly selected voluntary non-remunerated blood donors the incidence of malaria transmission is zero and the blood is safe for transfusion. Serological testing shows good correlation with peripheral blood film detection. In fact, it can detect the disease even when film detection has been unsuccessful. If proper donor selection criteria are observed there is little risk of transmitting malaria through transfusion. However, as the donor pool in the Service is not necessarily totally the of voluntary non-remunerated donors and substantive numbers of replacement/first time, occasionally uneducated/unaware donors, are being bled, screening for malaria will not be totally unrewarding. (author)

  16. Prevalence of congenital malaria in high-risk Ghanaian newborns: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enweronu-Laryea Christabel C

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Congenital malaria is defined as malaria parasitaemia in the first week of life. The reported prevalence of congenital malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is variable (0 - 46%. Even though the clinical significance of congenital malaria parasitaemia is uncertain, anti-malarial drugs are empirically prescribed for sick newborns by frontline health care workers. Data on prevalence of congenital malaria in high-risk newborns will inform appropriate drug use and timely referral of sick newborns. Methods Blood samples of untreated newborns less than 1 week of age at the time of referral to Korle Bu Teaching hospital in Accra, Ghana during the peak malaria seasons (April to July of 2008 and 2010 were examined for malaria parasites by, i Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood smears for parasite count and species identification, ii histidine-rich protein- and lactic dehydrogenase-based rapid diagnosis tests, or iii polymerase chain reaction amplification of the merozoite surface protein 2 gene, for identification of sub-microscopic parasitaemia. Other investigations were also done as clinically indicated. Results In 2008, nine cases of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia were diagnosed by microscopy in 405 (2.2% newborns. All the nine newborns had low parasite densities (≤50 per microlitre. In 2010, there was no case of parasitaemia by either microscopy or rapid diagnosis tests in 522 newborns; however, 56/467 (12% cases of P. falciparum were detected by polymerase chain reaction. Conclusion Congenital malaria is an uncommon cause of clinical illness in high-risk untreated newborns referred to a tertiary hospital in the first week of life. Empirical anti-malarial drug treatment for sick newborns without laboratory confirmation of parasitaemia is imprudent. Early referral of sick newborns to hospitals with resources and skills for appropriate care is recommended.

  17. Physiographic and entomologic risk factors of malaria in Assam, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dev, Vas; Phookan, Sobhan; Sharma, Vinod P; Anand, Suraj P

    2004-10-01

    Fever surveys were conducted in several districts of the Indian state of Assam to ascertain the prevalence of malaria in relation to vector abundance, entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs), and geographic location of human settlements. Anopheles minimus were incriminated, but their relative abundance and biting rates varied among districts, and no significant correlation was observed between these two indicators (r = 0.43, P = 0.34). Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant parasite species except in two districts where P. vivax was the majority parasite. The EIRs per person/night were 0.46-0.71 in P. falciparum-predominant areas and 0.12 in the district where P. vivax predominated. The correlation of percentage of fever cases positive for malaria infection in each district with the corresponding EIR was not significant (r = 0.6, P = 0.21). Malaria cases were detected in all months of the year but peaked during May-June, which corresponded to the months of heavy rainfall. These were also the months with highest incidence of infection with P. falciparum. Malaria cases were observed in all age groups of both sexes, and there was clustering of cases in villages near the vector-breeding habitat (perennial seepage streams), and foothill villages. However, malaria incidences were consistently lower in villages within 5 km of the nearest health care facility, which were in town areas. The data presented are indicative of low-to-moderate levels of malaria transmission by An. minimus, and would be of value for developing future intervention strategies.

  18. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-12-01

    The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more

  19. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Santos-Vega

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a

  20. Independent Associations of Maternal Education and Household Wealth with Malaria Risk in Children

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    José G. Siri

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite evidence that they play similar but independent roles, maternal education and household wealth are usually conflated in studies of the effects of socioeconomic status (SES on malaria risk. Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey data from nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa were used to explore the relationship of malaria parasitemia in children with SES factors at individual and cluster scales, controlling for urban/rural residence and other important covariates. In multilevel logistic regression modeling, completion of six years of maternal schooling was associated with significantly lower odds of infection in children (OR = 0.73, as was a household wealth index at the 40th percentile compared to the lowest percentile (OR = 0.48. These relationships were nonlinear, with significant quadratic terms for both education and wealth. Cluster-level wealth index was also associated with a reduction in risk (OR = 0.984 for a one percentile increase in mean wealth index, as was urban residence (OR = 0.59. Among other covariates, increasing child's age and household size category were positively correlated with infection, and sleeping under an insecticide-treated bednet the previous night (OR = 0.80 was associated with a moderate reduction in risk. Considerable variation in parameter estimates was observed among country-specific models. Future work should clearly distinguish between maternal education and household resources in assessing malaria risk, and malaria prevention and control efforts should be aware of the potential benefits of supporting the development of human capital.

  1. Urban malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa: where is the evidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Neville

    2007-03-01

    It is essential that the precautions that are advisable for travel in sub-Saharan Africa, including antimalarial prophylaxis, are supported by evidence. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 90% of global malaria cases and the more serious falciparum form predominates. The risk of malaria transmission is qualitatively much greater in rural than urban areas. However, there is little quantitative data on the risk in urban areas on which to base a risk assessment. Rapid urban population growth and trends of tourism to urban-only (rather than rural) areas both support the need to focus attention on the level of risk in malaria endemic African cities. There is evidence in urban settings that the reduced intensity of malaria transmission is due to a decline in the level of parasitism in the local population and reduced anophelism. The most useful evidence for an urban risk assessment is the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) which is generally below 30 infective bites per person per year. Transmission is acknowledged to be much lower in central urban areas compared with peri-urban areas or rural areas. Transmission is local and focal because the anopheles mosquito has a limited flight range of several kilometres. The risk assessment should examine nocturnal activities outside an air-conditioned environment (because the anopheline mosquito only bites between dusk and dawn) and the level of adherence to accompanying protective measures. Several studies have noted the protection air-conditioning provides against malaria. Evidence of low occupational risk for airline crew, unprotected by prophylaxis, from brief layovers of several nights in quality hotels in 8 endemic cities is explored. A literature search examines the evidence of environmental surveys and entomological inoculation rates. The limitations of the available data are discussed, including the highly focal nature of malaria transmission.

  2. Climate Change Is Increasing the Risk of the Reemergence of Malaria in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodale, Ilie; Florescu, Simin-Aysel; Roman, Constantin; Acatrinei, Dumitru

    2016-01-01

    The climatic modifications lead to global warming; favouring the risk of the appearance and development of diseases are considered until now tropical diseases. Another important factor is the workers' immigration, the economic crisis favouring the passive transmission of new species of culicidae from different areas. Malaria is the disease with the widest distribution in the globe. Millions of people are infected every year in Africa, India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Central and South America, with more than 41% of the global population under the risk of infestation with malaria. The increase of the number of local cases reported in 2007–2011 indicates that the conditions can favour the high local transmission in the affected areas. In the situation presented, the establishment of the level of risk concerning the reemergence of malaria in Romania becomes a priority. PMID:27847824

  3. Climate Change Is Increasing the Risk of the Reemergence of Malaria in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Ivanescu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The climatic modifications lead to global warming; favouring the risk of the appearance and development of diseases are considered until now tropical diseases. Another important factor is the workers’ immigration, the economic crisis favouring the passive transmission of new species of culicidae from different areas. Malaria is the disease with the widest distribution in the globe. Millions of people are infected every year in Africa, India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Central and South America, with more than 41% of the global population under the risk of infestation with malaria. The increase of the number of local cases reported in 2007–2011 indicates that the conditions can favour the high local transmission in the affected areas. In the situation presented, the establishment of the level of risk concerning the reemergence of malaria in Romania becomes a priority.

  4. Development of nutritionally at-risk young children is predicted by malaria, anemia, and stunting in Pemba, Zanzibar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nutritionally at-risk children suffer delays in physical growth and motor and language development. Infectious diseases such as malaria pose an additional risk. We examined the cross-sectional relationships among malaria infection, hemoglobin (Hb) concentration, length-for-age Z-scores (LAZ), motor ...

  5. GIS malaria risk assessment of Akure North and South Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Health-based survey, larval survey, socio-economic survey, and Geographic Information System (GIS) were used in achieving the objectives of the study. Larvae of mosquitoes were collected from breeding sites across the study areas; information on reported malaria cases from year 2010 to 2013 were retrieved from ...

  6. The influence of mosquito resting behaviour and associated microclimate for malaria risk

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    Thomas Matthew B

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The majority of the mosquito and parasite life-history traits that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity are temperature sensitive. In most cases, the process-based models used to estimate malaria risk and inform control and prevention strategies utilize measures of mean outdoor temperature. Evidence suggests, however, that certain malaria vectors can spend large parts of their adult life resting indoors. Presentation of hypothesis If significant proportions of mosquitoes are resting indoors and indoor conditions differ markedly from ambient conditions, simple use of outdoor temperatures will not provide reliable estimates of malaria transmission intensity. To date, few studies have quantified the differential effects of indoor vs outdoor temperatures explicitly, reflecting a lack of proper understanding of mosquito resting behaviour and associated microclimate. Testing the hypothesis Published records from 8 village sites in East Africa revealed temperatures to be warmer indoors than outdoors and to generally show less daily variation. Exploring the effects of these temperatures on malaria parasite development rate suggested indoor-resting mosquitoes could transmit malaria between 0.3 and 22.5 days earlier than outdoor-resting mosquitoes. These differences translate to increases in transmission risk ranging from 5 to approaching 3,000%, relative to predictions based on outdoor temperatures. The pattern appears robust for low- and highland areas, with differences increasing with altitude. Implications of the hypothesis Differences in indoor vs outdoor environments lead to large differences in the limits and the intensity of malaria transmission. This finding highlights a need to better understand mosquito resting behaviour and the associated microclimate, and to broaden assessments of transmission ecology and risk to consider the potentially important role of endophily.

  7. Mapping a Quantitative Trait Locus (QTL conferring pyrethroid resistance in the African malaria vector Anopheles funestus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hunt Richard H

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles funestus populations has led to an increase in malaria transmission in southern Africa. Resistance has been attributed to elevated activities of cytochrome P450s but the molecular basis underlying this metabolic resistance is unknown. Microsatellite and SNP markers were used to construct a linkage map and to detect a quantitative trait locus (QTL associated with pyrethroid resistance in the FUMOZ-R strain of An. funestus from Mozambique. Results By genotyping 349 F2 individuals from 11 independent families, a single major QTL, rp1, at the telomeric end of chromosome 2R was identified. The rp1 QTL appears to present a major effect since it accounts for more than 60% of the variance in susceptibility to permethrin. This QTL has a strong additive genetic effect with respect to susceptibility. Candidate genes associated with pyrethroid resistance in other species were physically mapped to An. funestus polytene chromosomes. This showed that rp1 is genetically linked to a cluster of CYP6 cytochrome P450 genes located on division 9 of chromosome 2R and confirmed earlier reports that pyrethroid resistance in this strain is not associated with target site mutations (knockdown resistance. Conclusion We hypothesize that one or more of these CYP6 P450s clustered on chromosome 2R confers pyrethroid resistance in the FUMOZ-R strain of An. funestus.

  8. Assessing the risk of self-diagnosed malaria in urban informal settlements of Nairobi using self-reported morbidity survey

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    Mugisha Frederick

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of the belief that Nairobi is a low risk zone for malaria, little empirical data exists on malaria risk in the area. The aim of this study was to explore the risk of perceived malaria and some associated factors in Nairobi informal settlements using self-reported morbidity survey. Methods The survey was conducted from May to August 2004 on 7,288 individuals in two informal settlements of Nairobi. Participants were asked to report illnesses they experienced in the past 14 days. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of perceived-malaria. The model included variables such as site of residence, age, ethnicity and number of reported symptoms. Results Participants reported 165 illnesses among which malaria was the leading cause (28.1%. The risk of perceived-malaria was significantly higher in Viwandani compared to Korogocho (OR 1.61, 95%CI: 1.10–2.26. Participants in age group 25–39 years had significantly higher odds of perceived-malaria compared to those under-five years (OR 2.07, 95%CI: 1.43–2.98. The Kikuyu had reduced odds of perceived-malaria compared to other ethnic groups. Individuals with five and more symptoms had higher odds compared to those with no symptoms (OR 23.69, 95%CI: 12.98–43.23. Conclusion Malaria was the leading cause of illness as perceived by the residents in the two informal settlements. This was rational as the number of reported symptoms was highly associated with the risk of reporting the illness. These results highlight the need for a more comprehensive assessment of malaria epidemiology in Nairobi to be able to offer evidence-based guidance to policy on malaria in Kenya and particularly in Nairobi.

  9. Climate change as an amplifier of health risks: highland malaria in Africa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huynen, Maud; Martens, Pim

    2016-01-01

    The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. In this chapter, this is illustrated for an important health risk induced by climate change, namely highland malaria in Africa. Despite the known causal links between

  10. Recent Change of Locality as Risk Factor for Malaria Fever Among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DATONYE ALASIA

    immune travelers to malarious areas, has also been found to be a ... Youth Service Corps members serving in a district in southern ... Recent Change of Locality as Risk Factor for Malaria Fever Among New Residents of. Ahoada East Local ...

  11. Quantifying the Number of Pregnancies at Risk of Malaria in 2007: A Demographic Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellicour, S.; Tatem, A.J.; Guerra, C.A.; Snow, R.W.; ter Kuile, F.O.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Comprehensive and contemporary estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria are not currently available, particularly for endemic areas outside of Africa. We derived global estimates of the number of women who became pregnant in 2007 in areas with Plasmodium falciparum and

  12. Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

    2014-11-01

    Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

  13. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward malaria risk and prevention among frequent business travelers of a major oil and gas company.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Johannes; Breederveld, Daan; Roukens, Anna H; Hennink, Yvonne; Schouten, Marjolijn; Wendt, Judy K; Visser, Leo G

    2011-01-01

    Despite significant morbidity and mortality among business travelers due to malaria, very little has been published on knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) toward malaria risk. The aim of this study was to assess KAP among frequent international business travelers (FBT) and to identify recommendations for improving malaria prevention that could be applied to the wider FBT community in occupational health. A retrospective web-based survey was conducted in 2005 among self-registered FBT of an oil and gas company based in the Netherlands. The survey was completed by 328 of the 608 self-registered FBT (54%). Fifty-four percent of respondents had visited a high-risk area for malaria. Most respondents (96%) were experienced travelers; the majority (71%) sought health advice before their trip and made use of a company health resource. Fever was recognized as a malaria symptom by all FBT; travel to high-risk malaria areas was correctly identified by 96%, and 99% of these travelers adhered to use of adequate personal protective measures. The proportion of travelers carrying appropriate anti-malaria drug regimen was positively associated with receiving company advice among FBT traveling to high-risk destinations (RR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.21-3.67), but not for those traveling to low- or no-risk destinations. Only 8% (14) of those going to a high-risk area were not carrying malaria prophylaxis. One in five of FBT traveling to no-risk areas were unnecessarily carrying malaria prophylaxis. The majority of KAP results were excellent. We postulate that a company culture with a strong focus on health, safety, security, and environment can positively contribute to high KAP scores. Notwithstanding the excellent findings, this study also provides a cautionary tale for company health functions against overprescribing of malaria prophylaxis. It demonstrates the need for constant review and audit of adherence to quality criteria. © 2011 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  14. Malaria in Hadhramout, a southeast province of Yemen: prevalence, risk factors, knowledge, attitude and practices (KAPs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamaga, Omar A A; Mahdy, Mohammed A K; Mahmud, Rohela; Lim, Yvonne A L

    2014-07-29

    Yemen is a Mediterranean country where 65% of its population is at risk of malaria, with 43% at high risk. Yemen is still in the control phase without sustainable reduction in the proportion of malaria cases. A cross-sectional household survey was carried out in different districts in the southeast of the country to determine malaria prevalence and identify factors that impede progress of the elimination phase. Blood specimens were collected from 735 individuals aged 1-66 years. Plasmodium species were detected and identified by microscopic examination of Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood smears. A household-based questionnaire was used to collect demographic, socioeconomic and environmental data. The overall prevalence of malaria was 18.8% with Plasmodium falciparum as the predominant species (99.3%), with a low rate of Plasmodium vivax detected (0.7%). The infection rate was higher in Al-Raydah and Qusyer districts (21.8%) compared to Hajer district (11.8%). Fifty-two percent of the persons positive for Plasmodium were asymptomatic with low parasite density. The adults had a higher infection rate as compared to children. Univariate analysis identified those whose household's head are fishermen (OR = 11.3, 95% CI: 3.13-40.5) and farmers (OR = 4.84, 95% CI: 1.73-13.6) as high-risk groups. A higher number of positive smears were observed in people living in houses with uncemented brick walls (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.32-3.30), without access to toilets (OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.05-2.32), without a fridge (OR = 1. 6, 95% CI: 1.05-2.30), or without TV (OR = 1. 6, (95% CI: 1.05-2.30). People living in houses with water collection points located less than 200 meters away were also at higher risk of acquiring malaria (OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.05-2.30). Knowledge about the importance of using insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) for prevention of malaria was 7% and 2%, respectively. Several environmental, socioeconomic

  15. Bayesian geostatistical modelling of malaria and lymphatic filariasis infections in Uganda: predictors of risk and geographical patterns of co-endemicity

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    Pedersen Erling M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Uganda, malaria and lymphatic filariasis (causative agent Wuchereria bancrofti are transmitted by the same vector species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and thus are likely to share common environmental risk factors and overlap in geographical space. In a comprehensive nationwide survey in 2000-2003 the geographical distribution of W. bancrofti was assessed by screening school-aged children for circulating filarial antigens (CFA. Concurrently, blood smears were examined for malaria parasites. In this study, the resultant malariological data are analysed for the first time and the CFA data re-analysed in order to identify risk factors, produce age-stratified prevalence maps for each infection, and to define the geographical patterns of Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti co-endemicity. Methods Logistic regression models were fitted separately for Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti within a Bayesian framework. Models contained covariates representing individual-level demographic effects, school-level environmental effects and location-based random effects. Several models were fitted assuming different random effects to allow for spatial structuring and to capture potential non-linearity in the malaria- and filariasis-environment relation. Model-based risk predictions at unobserved locations were obtained via Bayesian predictive distributions for the best fitting models. Maps of predicted hyper-endemic malaria and filariasis were furthermore overlaid in order to define areas of co-endemicity. Results Plasmodium sp. parasitaemia was found to be highly endemic in most of Uganda, with an overall population adjusted parasitaemia risk of 47.2% in the highest risk age-sex group (boys 5-9 years. High W. bancrofti prevalence was predicted for a much more confined area in northern Uganda, with an overall population adjusted infection risk of 7.2% in the highest risk age-group (14-19 year olds. Observed overall prevalence of individual co

  16. Using participatory risk analysis to develop a song about malaria for young children in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Chad M; McCrindle, Cheryl M E; Kruger, Taneshka; McNeill, Fraser

    2018-04-27

    In 2015, malaria infected over 212 million people and killed over 429,000 individuals, mostly children under 5 years of age, with 90% of malaria cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim was to develop an age and culturally appropriate song for Tshivenda-speaking children under 5 years of age to decrease the risk of malaria in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Document review was used to identify appropriate disease determinants to decrease risk in children develop lyrics and music for a song about malaria in line with the principles of participatory risk analysis. The age and cultural appropriateness of the song as well as disease determinants chosen were reviewed using a modified Delphi technique, by 10 purposively selected experts in malaria (4), Vhavenda music (3) and early childhood education (3). Thereafter, the song was translated into Tshivenda and reviewed by two focus groups living in the study area, one including female caregivers and pre-school teachers (n = 7) and a second comprising of male community based malaria control personnel (n = 5). The experts surveyed and both focus groups strongly supported the inclusion of knowledge about the link between mosquitoes and malaria and that children should know the signs of malaria to facilitate early diagnosis. Although the expert group felt that bed nets should not be mentioned, both focus groups suggested the inclusion of bed nets and it was observed that community members were purchasing their own nets. Focus group members also felt that young children should not be involved in internal residual spraying initiatives. It was concluded that although risk communication on malaria prevention and treatment in young children should be aimed at caregivers, an age and culture appropriate song about malaria could be developed to help young children protect themselves. This song focused on understanding the link between mosquitoes and malaria, preventing exposure and recognising signs of disease.

  17. Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Adde

    Full Text Available Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock (French Guiana. Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables-dense forest surface and built surface-together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

  18. Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adde, Antoine; Roux, Emmanuel; Mangeas, Morgan; Dessay, Nadine; Nacher, Mathieu; Dusfour, Isabelle; Girod, Romain; Briolant, Sébastien

    2016-01-01

    Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables-dense forest surface and built surface-together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

  19. Seismic risk map of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.H.; Lee, Y.K.; Eum, S.H.; Yang, S.J.; Chun, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    A study on seismic hazard level in Korea has been performed and the main results of the study are summarized as follows: 1. Historians suggest that the quality of historical earthquake data may be accurate in some degree and the data should be used in seismic risk analysis. 2. The historical damage events are conformed in historical literatures and their intensities are re-evaluated by joint researchers. The maximum MM intensity of them is VIII evaluated for 17 events. 3. The relation of earthquakes to surface fault is not clear. It seems resonable to related them to tectonic provinces. 4. Statistical seismic risk analysis shows that the acceleration expected within 50O year return period is less than 0.25G when only instrumental earthquakes are used and less than 0.10G if all of instrumental and historical earthquakes are used. The acceleration in Western Coast and Kyungsang area is higher than the other regions in Korea. 5. The maximum horizontal acceleration determined by conservative method is 0.26G when historical earthquake data are used and less than 0.20G if only instrumental earthquakes are used. The return period of 0.26G is 240 years in Kyungsang province and longer in other provinces. (Author)

  20. Malaria and human immunodeficiency virus infection as risk factors for anemia in infants in Kisumu, western Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijk, Anna M.; Ayisi, John G.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Misore, Ambrose O.; Otieno, Juliana A.; Kolczak, Margarette S.; Kager, Piet A.; Steketee, Richard W.; Nahlen, Bernard L.

    2002-01-01

    The role of maternal and pediatric infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and malaria as risk factors for anemia was determined in a birth cohort of infants born to mothers participating in a study of the interaction between placental malaria and HIV infection, in Kisumu, Kenya.

  1. Mapping Risks of Indonesian Tuna Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karningsih, P. D.; Anggrahini, D.; Kurniati, N.; Suef, M.; Fachrur, A. R.; Syahroni, N.

    2018-04-01

    Due to its high economic value and is produced by many countries, Tuna is considered as one of the world’s popular fish. Demand for Tuna species are very high and it usually sells in three form: fresh, frozen or canned. Competition in Tuna trading is challengin with the potential risk of price and supply fluctuations. With recent focus of Indonesia government that see the future of Indonesia civilization depend on the oceans and as the three biggest Tuna producing country, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries should ensure sustainability and competitiveness of Indonesian tuna. Therefore, there is a great need to develop a proper and effective strategy to manage potential risks in Indonesian Tuna supply chain. This paper is aimed at identifying and mapping potential Tuna supply chain risks and its interrelationships that would assist government in determining proper strategies to manage Indonesian Tuna. A framework for identifying Tuna supply chain risks is proposed. Generic risk structure of Supply Chain Risk Identification System is adopted and modified to match with particular object, which is Indonesian Tuna. The proposed model consists of hierarchical and causal structure that encompass potential risks of Tuna supply chain operations from fishing, trading, processing and distribution. The causal structure consist of risk events and its risk agents which is the cause of risk events. To ensure the root cause of risk events are identified properly, five why’s analysis is utilized to obtain risk agents. This proposed model also captures risk interrelationship between internal and external environment of Tuna supply chain. Preliminary result of this study identifies 15 risk events and 13 risk factors on fishing and trading operations and maps their interrelationships.

  2. Malaria risk factors and care-seeking behaviour within the private sector among high-risk populations in Vietnam: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ingrid; Thanh, Huong Ngo Thi; Lover, Andrew; Thao, Phung Thi; Luu, Tang Viet; Thang, Hoang Nghia; Thang, Ngo Duc; Neukom, Josselyn; Bennett, Adam

    2017-10-16

    Vietnam has successfully reduced malaria incidence by more than 90% over the past 10 years, and is now preparing for malaria elimination. However, the remaining malaria burden resides in individuals that are hardest to reach, in highly remote areas, where many malaria cases are treated through the informal private sector and are not reported to public health systems. This qualitative study aimed to contextualize and characterize the role of private providers, care-seeking behaviour of individuals at high risk of malaria, as well as risk factors that should be addressed through malaria elimination programmes in Vietnam. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 11 key informants in Hanoi, 30 providers, 9 potential patients, and 11 individuals at risk of malaria in Binh Phuoc and Kon Tum provinces. Audio recorded interviews were transcribed and uploaded to Atlas TI™, themes were identified, from which programmatic implications and recommendations were synthesized. Qualitative interviews revealed that efforts for malaria elimination in Vietnam should concentrate on reaching highest-risk populations in remote areas as well their care providers, in particular private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Among these private providers, diagnosis is currently based on symptoms, leaving unconfirmed cases that are not reported to public health surveillance systems. Among at-risk individuals, knowledge of malaria was limited, and individuals reported not taking full courses of treatment, a practice that threatens selection for drug resistance. Access to insecticide-treated hammock nets, a potentially important preventive measure for settings with outdoor biting Anopheles vectors, was also limited. Malaria elimination efforts in Vietnam can be accelerated by targeting improved treatment, diagnosis, and reporting practices to private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Programmes should also seek to increase awareness and

  3. Social and environmental malaria risk factors in urban areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ouedraogo Herman

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite low endemicity, malaria remains a major health problem in urban areas where a high proportion of fevers are presumptively treated using anti-malarial drugs. Low acquired malaria immunity, behaviour of city-dwellers, access to health care and preventive interventions, and heterogenic suitability of urban ecosystems for malaria transmission contribute to the complexity of the malaria epidemiology in urban areas. Methods The study was designed to identify the determinants of malaria transmission estimated by the prevalence of anti-circumsporozoite (CSP antibodies, the prevalence and density of Plasmodium falciparum infection, and the prevalence of malarial disease in areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso. Thick blood smears, dried blood spots and clinical status have been collected from 3,354 randomly chosen children aged 6 months to 12 years using two cross-sectional surveys (during the dry and rainy seasons in eight areas from four ecological strata defined according to building density and land tenure (regular versus irregular. Demographic characteristics, socio-economic information, and sanitary and environmental data concerning the children or their households were simultaneously collected. Dependent variables were analysed using mixed multivariable models with random effects, taking into account the clustering of participants within compounds and areas. Results Overall prevalences of CSP-antibodies and P. falciparum infections were 7.7% and 16.6% during the dry season, and 12.4% and 26.1% during the rainy season, respectively, with significant differences according to ecological strata. Malaria risk was significantly higher among children who i lived in households with lower economic or education levels, iii near the hydrographic network, iv in sparsely built-up areas, v in irregularly built areas, vi who did not use a bed net, vii were sampled during the rainy season or ii had traveled outside of Ouagadougou

  4. The Malaria Transition on the Arabian Peninsula: Progress toward a Malaria-Free Region between 1960–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Robert W.; Amratia, Punam; Zamani, Ghasem; Mundia, Clara W.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Memish, Ziad A.; Al Zahrani, Mohammad H.; Al Jasari, Adel; Fikri, Mahmoud; Atta, Hoda

    2014-01-01

    The transmission of malaria across the Arabian Peninsula is governed by the diversity of dominant vectors and extreme aridity. It is likely that where malaria transmission was historically possible it was intense and led to a high disease burden. Here, we review the speed of elimination, approaches taken, define the shrinking map of risk since 1960 and discuss the threats posed to a malaria-free Arabian Peninsula using the archive material, case data and published works. From as early as the 1940s, attempts were made to eliminate malaria on the peninsula but were met with varying degrees of success through to the 1970s; however, these did result in a shrinking of the margins of malaria transmission across the peninsula. Epidemics in the 1990s galvanised national malaria control programmes to reinvigorate control efforts. Before the launch of the recent global ambition for malaria eradication, countries on the Arabian Peninsula launched a collaborative malaria-free initiative in 2005. This initiative led a further shrinking of the malaria risk map and today locally acquired clinical cases of malaria are reported only in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with the latter contributing to over 98% of the clinical burden. PMID:23548086

  5. Integrated prevalence mapping of schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis and malaria in lakeside and island communities in Lake Victoria, Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background It is widely advocated that integrated strategies for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are cost-effective in comparison to vertical disease-specific programmes. A prerequisite for implementation of control interventions is the availability of baseline data of prevalence, including the population at risk and disease overlap. Despite extensive literature on the distribution of schistosomiasis on the mainland in Uganda, there has been a knowledge gap for the prevalence of co-infections with malaria, particularly for island communities in Lake Victoria. In this study, nine lakeshore and island districts were surveyed for the prevalence of NTDs and malaria, as well as educational and health infrastructure. Results A total of 203 communities were surveyed, including over 5000 school-age children. Varying levels of existing health infrastructure were observed between districts, with only Jinja District regularly treating people for NTDs. Community medicine distributors (CMD) were identified and trained in drug delivery to strengthen capacity. Prevalence levels of intestinal schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis were assessed via Kato-Katz thick smears of stool and malaria prevalence determined by microscopy of fingerprick blood samples. Prevalence levels were 40.8%, 26.04% and 46.4%, respectively, while the prevalence of co-infection by Schistosoma mansoni and Plasmodium spp. was 23.5%. Socio-economic status was strongly associated as a risk factor for positive infection status with one or more of these diseases. Conclusions These results emphasise the challenges of providing wide-scale coverage of health infrastructure and drug distribution in remote lakeshore communities. The data further indicate that co-infections with malaria and NTDs are common, implying that integrated interventions for NTDs and malaria are likely to maximize cost-effectiveness and sustainability of disease control efforts. PMID:22166365

  6. Integrated prevalence mapping of schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis and malaria in lakeside and island communities in Lake Victoria, Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabatereine, Narcis B; Standley, Claire J; Sousa-Figueiredo, Jose C; Fleming, Fiona M; Stothard, J Russell; Talisuna, Ambrose; Fenwick, Alan

    2011-12-13

    It is widely advocated that integrated strategies for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are cost-effective in comparison to vertical disease-specific programmes. A prerequisite for implementation of control interventions is the availability of baseline data of prevalence, including the population at risk and disease overlap. Despite extensive literature on the distribution of schistosomiasis on the mainland in Uganda, there has been a knowledge gap for the prevalence of co-infections with malaria, particularly for island communities in Lake Victoria. In this study, nine lakeshore and island districts were surveyed for the prevalence of NTDs and malaria, as well as educational and health infrastructure. A total of 203 communities were surveyed, including over 5000 school-age children. Varying levels of existing health infrastructure were observed between districts, with only Jinja District regularly treating people for NTDs. Community medicine distributors (CMD) were identified and trained in drug delivery to strengthen capacity. Prevalence levels of intestinal schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis were assessed via Kato-Katz thick smears of stool and malaria prevalence determined by microscopy of fingerprick blood samples. Prevalence levels were 40.8%, 26.04% and 46.4%, respectively, while the prevalence of co-infection by Schistosoma mansoni and Plasmodium spp. was 23.5%. Socio-economic status was strongly associated as a risk factor for positive infection status with one or more of these diseases. These results emphasise the challenges of providing wide-scale coverage of health infrastructure and drug distribution in remote lakeshore communities. The data further indicate that co-infections with malaria and NTDs are common, implying that integrated interventions for NTDs and malaria are likely to maximize cost-effectiveness and sustainability of disease control efforts.

  7. Risk-targeted maps for Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacareanu, Radu; Pavel, Florin; Craciun, Ionut; Coliba, Veronica; Arion, Cristian; Aldea, Alexandru; Neagu, Cristian

    2018-03-01

    Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.

  8. Maps of the Sri Lanka malaria situation preceding the tsunami and key aspects to be considered in the emergency phase and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konradsen Flemming

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Following the tsunami, a detailed overview of the area specific transmission levels is essential in assessing the risk of malaria in Sri Lanka. Recent information on vector insecticide resistance, parasite drug resistance, and insights into the national policy for malaria diagnosis and treatment are important in assisting national and international agencies in their control efforts. Methods Monthly records over the period January 1995 – October 2004 of confirmed malaria cases were used to perform an analysis of malaria distribution at district spatial resolution. Also, a focused review of published reports and routinely collected information was performed. Results The incidence of malaria was only 1 case per thousand population in the 10 months leading up to the disaster, in the districts with the highest transmission. Conclusion Although relocated people may be more exposed to mosquito bites, and their capacity to handle diseases affected, the environmental changes caused by the tsunami are unlikely to enhance breeding of the principal vector, and, given the present low parasite reservoir, the likelihood of a malaria outbreak is low. However, close monitoring of the situation is necessary, especially as December – February is normally the peak transmission season. Despite some losses, the Sri Lanka public health system is capable of dealing with the possible threat of a malaria outbreak after the tsunami. The influx of foreign medical assistance, drugs, and insecticides may interfere with malaria surveillance, and the long term malaria control strategy of Sri Lanka, if not in accordance with government policy.

  9. The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okara Robi M

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This is the second in a series of three articles documenting the geographical distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS of human malaria. The first paper addressed the DVS of the Americas and the third will consider those of the Asian Pacific Region. Here, the DVS of Africa, Europe and the Middle East are discussed. The continent of Africa experiences the bulk of the global malaria burden due in part to the presence of the An. gambiae complex. Anopheles gambiae is one of four DVS within the An. gambiae complex, the others being An. arabiensis and the coastal An. merus and An. melas. There are a further three, highly anthropophilic DVS in Africa, An. funestus, An. moucheti and An. nili. Conversely, across Europe and the Middle East, malaria transmission is low and frequently absent, despite the presence of six DVS. To help control malaria in Africa and the Middle East, or to identify the risk of its re-emergence in Europe, the contemporary distribution and bionomics of the relevant DVS are needed. Results A contemporary database of occurrence data, compiled from the formal literature and other relevant resources, resulted in the collation of information for seven DVS from 44 countries in Africa containing 4234 geo-referenced, independent sites. In Europe and the Middle East, six DVS were identified from 2784 geo-referenced sites across 49 countries. These occurrence data were combined with expert opinion ranges and a suite of environmental and climatic variables of relevance to anopheline ecology to produce predictive distribution maps using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT method. Conclusions The predicted geographic extent for the following DVS (or species/suspected species complex* is provided for Africa: Anopheles (Cellia arabiensis, An. (Cel. funestus*, An. (Cel. gambiae, An. (Cel. melas, An. (Cel. merus, An. (Cel. moucheti and An. (Cel. nili*, and in the European and Middle Eastern Region: An. (Anopheles atroparvus

  10. Health risks maps. Modelling of air quality as a tool to map health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Doorn, R.; Hegger, C.

    2000-01-01

    Environmental departments consider geographical maps with information on air quality as the final product of a complicated process of measuring, modelling and presentation. Municipal health departments consider such maps a useful starting point to solve the problem whether air pollution causes health risks for citizens. The answer to this question cannot be reduced to checking if threshold limit values are exceeded. Based on the results of measurements and modelling of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in air, the health significance of air pollution caused by nitrogen dioxide is illuminated. A proposal is presented to map health risks of air pollution by using the results of measurements and modelling of air pollution. 7 refs

  11. Malaria diagnosis and mapping with m-Health and geographic information systems (GIS): evidence from Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larocca, Alberto; Moro Visconti, Roberto; Marconi, Michele

    2016-10-24

    Rural populations experience several barriers to accessing clinical facilities for malaria diagnosis. Increasing penetration of ICT and mobile-phones and subsequent m-Health applications can contribute overcoming such obstacles. GIS is used to evaluate the feasibility of m-Health technologies as part of anti-malaria strategies. This study investigates where in Uganda: (1) malaria affects the largest number of people; (2) the application of m-Health protocol based on the mobile network has the highest potential impact. About 75% of the population affected by Plasmodium falciparum malaria have scarce access to healthcare facilities. The introduction of m-Health technologies should be based on the 2G protocol, as 3G mobile network coverage is still limited. The western border and the central-Southeast are the regions where m-Health could reach the largest percentage of the remote population. Six districts (Arua, Apac, Lira, Kamuli, Iganga, and Mubende) could have the largest benefit because they account for about 28% of the remote population affected by falciparum malaria with access to the 2G mobile network. The application of m-Health technologies could improve access to medical services for distant populations. Affordable remote malaria diagnosis could help to decongest health facilities, reducing costs and contagion. The combination of m-Health and GIS could provide real-time and geo-localized data transmission, improving anti-malarial strategies in Uganda. Scalability to other countries and diseases looks promising.

  12. Malaria diagnosis and mapping with m-Health and geographic information systems (GIS: evidence from Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Larocca

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rural populations experience several barriers to accessing clinical facilities for malaria diagnosis. Increasing penetration of ICT and mobile-phones and subsequent m-Health applications can contribute overcoming such obstacles. Methods GIS is used to evaluate the feasibility of m-Health technologies as part of anti-malaria strategies. This study investigates where in Uganda: (1 malaria affects the largest number of people; (2 the application of m-Health protocol based on the mobile network has the highest potential impact. Results About 75% of the population affected by Plasmodium falciparum malaria have scarce access to healthcare facilities. The introduction of m-Health technologies should be based on the 2G protocol, as 3G mobile network coverage is still limited. The western border and the central-Southeast are the regions where m-Health could reach the largest percentage of the remote population. Six districts (Arua, Apac, Lira, Kamuli, Iganga, and Mubende could have the largest benefit because they account for about 28% of the remote population affected by falciparum malaria with access to the 2G mobile network. Conclusions The application of m-Health technologies could improve access to medical services for distant populations. Affordable remote malaria diagnosis could help to decongest health facilities, reducing costs and contagion. The combination of m-Health and GIS could provide real-time and geo-localized data transmission, improving anti-malarial strategies in Uganda. Scalability to other countries and diseases looks promising.

  13. Radon risk map of the city Brno

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansky, J.

    2000-01-01

    Data of radon risk mapping of the city Brno area from 1992 to 1999 were collected from databases of six private companies measuring radon risk there. The data sets are completed now. The first results are presented in this paper. In the city Brno area only low (385 measured sites) and medium (300) radon risk categories were found. The largest number of measured areas were situated in places with loess and loess loam (total quantity 344 sites, with medium radon risk category 158 sites), recent fluvial sediments (64, 32) and anthropogenous deposits (61, 23). High values of radon volume activity in soil gas were found predominantly in Quaternary sediments and in granodiorite, type Veverska Bityska, low values in leucotonalite and metabasalt. (author)

  14. Malaria risk in young male travellers but local transmission persists: a case-control study in low transmission Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jennifer L; Auala, Joyce; Haindongo, Erastus; Uusiku, Petrina; Gosling, Roly; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Mumbengegwi, Davis; Sturrock, Hugh J W

    2017-02-10

    A key component of malaria elimination campaigns is the identification and targeting of high risk populations. To characterize high risk populations in north central Namibia, a prospective health facility-based case-control study was conducted from December 2012-July 2014. Cases (n = 107) were all patients presenting to any of the 46 health clinics located in the study districts with a confirmed Plasmodium infection by multi-species rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Population controls (n = 679) for each district were RDT negative individuals residing within a household that was randomly selected from a census listing using a two-stage sampling procedure. Demographic, travel, socio-economic, behavioural, climate and vegetation data were also collected. Spatial patterns of malaria risk were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for malaria. Malaria risk was observed to cluster along the border with Angola, and travel patterns among cases were comparatively restricted to northern Namibia and Angola. Travel to Angola was associated with excessive risk of malaria in males (OR 43.58 95% CI 2.12-896), but there was no corresponding risk associated with travel by females. This is the first study to reveal that gender can modify the effect of travel on risk of malaria. Amongst non-travellers, male gender was also associated with a higher risk of malaria compared with females (OR 1.95 95% CI 1.25-3.04). Other strong risk factors were sleeping away from the household the previous night, lower socioeconomic status, living in an area with moderate vegetation around their house, experiencing moderate rainfall in the month prior to diagnosis and living young male travellers, who have a disproportionate risk of malaria in northern Namibia, to coordinate cross-border regional malaria prevention initiatives and to scale up coverage of prevention measures such as indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticide nets in high risk areas if

  15. Seismic risk map for Southeastern Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mioto, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    During the last few years, some studies regarding seismic risk were prepared for three regions of Brazil. They were carried on account of two basic interests: first, toward the seismic history and recurrence of Brazilian seismic events; second, in a way as to provide seismic parameters for the design and construction of hydro and nuclear power plants. The first seismic risk map prepared for the southeastern region was elaborated in 1979 by 6he Universidade de Brasilia (UnB-Brasilia Seismological Station). In 1981 another seismic risk map was completed on the basis of seismotectonic studies carried out for the design and construction of the Nuclear power plants of Itaorna Beach (Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro) by IPT (Mining and Applied Geology Division). In Brazil, until 1984, seismic studies concerning hydro and nuclear power plants and other civil construction of larger size did not take into account the seismic events from the point of view of probabilities of seismic recurrences. Such analysis in design is more important than the choice of a level of intensity or magnitude, or adoption of a seismicity level ased on deterministic methods. In this way, some considerations were made, concerning the use of seisms in Brazilian designs of hydro and nuclear power plants, as far as seismic analysis is concerned, recently altered over the current seismic risk panorama. (D.J.M.) [pt

  16. Smoky River coal flood risk mapping study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    The Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) is designed to reduce flood damage by identifying areas susceptible to flooding and by encouraging application of suitable land use planning, zoning, and flood preparedness and proofing. The purpose of this study is to define flood risk and floodway limits along the Smoky River near the former Smoky River Coal (SRC) plant. Alberta Energy has been responsible for the site since the mine and plant closed in 2000. The study describes flooding history, available data, features of the river and valley, calculation of flood levels, and floodway determination, and includes flood risk maps. The HEC-RAS program is used for the calculations. The flood risk area was calculated using the 1:100 year return period flood as the hydrological event. 7 refs., 11 figs., 7 tabs., 3 apps.

  17. Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiwat Hélène

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Suriname was a high malaria risk country before the introduction of a new five-year malaria control program in 2005, the Medical Mission Malaria Programme (MM-MP. Malaria was endemic in the forested interior, where especially the stabile village communities were affected. Case description The interventions of the MM-MP included new strategies for prevention, vector control, case management, behavioral change communication (BCC/information, education and communication (IEC, and strengthening of the health system (surveillance, monitoring and evaluation and epidemic detection system. After a slow first year with non-satisfying scores for the performance indicators, the MM-MP truly engaged in its intervention activities in 2006 and kept its performance up until the end of 2009. A total of 69,994 long-lasting insecticide-treated nets were distributed and more than 15,000 nets re-impregnated. In high-risk areas, this was complemented with residual spraying of insecticides. Over 10,000 people were screened with active case detection in outbreak and high-risk areas. Additional notification points were established and the national health system was strengthened. Discussion and evaluation In the current paper, the MM-MP is evaluated both on account of the targets established within the programme and on account of its impact on the malaria situation in Suriname. Malaria vector populations, monitored in sentinel sites, collapsed after 2006 and concurrently the number of national malaria cases decreased from 8,618 in 2005 to 1,509 in 2009. Malaria transmission risk shifted from the stabile village communities to the mobile gold mining communities, especially those along the French Guiana border. Conclusions The novel strategies for malaria control introduced in Suriname within the MM-MP have led to a significant decrease in the national malaria burden. The challenge is to further reduce malaria using the available strategies as

  18. Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiwat, Hélène; Hardjopawiro, Loretta S; Takken, Willem; Villegas, Leopoldo

    2012-01-09

    Suriname was a high malaria risk country before the introduction of a new five-year malaria control program in 2005, the Medical Mission Malaria Programme (MM-MP). Malaria was endemic in the forested interior, where especially the stabile village communities were affected. The interventions of the MM-MP included new strategies for prevention, vector control, case management, behavioral change communication (BCC)/information, education and communication (IEC), and strengthening of the health system (surveillance, monitoring and evaluation and epidemic detection system). After a slow first year with non-satisfying scores for the performance indicators, the MM-MP truly engaged in its intervention activities in 2006 and kept its performance up until the end of 2009. A total of 69,994 long-lasting insecticide-treated nets were distributed and more than 15,000 nets re-impregnated. In high-risk areas, this was complemented with residual spraying of insecticides. Over 10,000 people were screened with active case detection in outbreak and high-risk areas. Additional notification points were established and the national health system was strengthened. In the current paper, the MM-MP is evaluated both on account of the targets established within the programme and on account of its impact on the malaria situation in Suriname. Malaria vector populations, monitored in sentinel sites, collapsed after 2006 and concurrently the number of national malaria cases decreased from 8,618 in 2005 to 1,509 in 2009. Malaria transmission risk shifted from the stabile village communities to the mobile gold mining communities, especially those along the French Guiana border. The novel strategies for malaria control introduced in Suriname within the MM-MP have led to a significant decrease in the national malaria burden. The challenge is to further reduce malaria using the available strategies as appropriate in the affected areas and populations. Elimination of malaria in the country will

  19. Malaria infection has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kassahun Alemu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination requires successful nationwide control efforts. Detecting the spatiotemporal distribution and mapping high-risk areas are useful to effectively target pockets of malaria endemic regions for interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify patterns of malaria distribution by space and time in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the monthly reports stored in the district malaria offices for the period between 2003 and 2012. Eighteen districts in the highland and fringe malaria areas were included and geo-coded for the purpose of this study. The spatial data were created in ArcGIS10 for each district. The Poisson model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan™ software to analyze the purely temporal, spatial and space-time clusters of malaria at a district levels. RESULTS: The study revealed that malaria case distribution has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable transmission areas. Most likely spatial malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR =197764.1, p<0.001. Significant spatiotemporal malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR=197764.1, p<0.001 between 2003/1/1 and 2012/12/31. A temporal scan statistics identified two high risk periods from 2009/1/1 to 2010/12/31 (LLR=72490.5, p<0.001 and from 2003/1/1 to 2005/12/31 (LLR=26988.7, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: In unstable malaria transmission areas, detecting and considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity would be useful to strengthen malaria control efforts and ultimately achieve elimination.

  20. Malaria and Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Providers, Emergency Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us Malaria and Travelers for U.S. Residents Recommend on Facebook ... may be at risk for infection. Determine if malaria transmission occurs at the destinations Obtain a detailed ...

  1. Using an intervention mapping approach for planning, implementing and assessing a community-led project towards malaria elimination in the Eastern Province of Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingabire, Chantal Marie; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Kateera, Fredrick; Rulisa, Alexis; Van Den Borne, Bart; Nieuwold, Ingmar; Muvunyi, Claude; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M; Van Vugt, Michele; Mutesa, Leon; Alaii, Jane

    2016-12-16

    Active community participation in malaria control is key to achieving malaria pre-elimination in Rwanda. This paper describes development, implementation and evaluation of a community-based malaria elimination project in Ruhuha sector, Bugesera district, Eastern province of Rwanda. Guided by an intervention mapping approach, a needs assessment was conducted using household and entomological surveys and focus group interviews. Data related to behavioural, epidemiological, entomological and economical aspects were collected. Desired behavioural and environmental outcomes were identified concurrently with behavioural and environmental determinants. Theoretical methods and their practical applications were enumerated to guide programme development and implementation. An operational plan including the scope and sequence as well as programme materials was developed. Two project components were subsequently implemented following community trainings: (1) community malaria action teams (CMATs) were initiated in mid-2014 as platforms to deliver malaria preventive messages at village level, and (2) a mosquito larval source control programme using biological substances was deployed for a duration of 6 months, implemented from January to July 2015. Process and outcome evaluation has been conducted for both programme components to inform future scale up. The project highlighted malaria patterns in the area and underpinned behavioural and environmental factors contributing to malaria transmission. Active involvement of the community in collaboration with CMATs contributed to health literacy, particularly increasing ability to make knowledgeable decisions in regards to malaria prevention and control. A follow up survey conducted six months following the establishment of CMATs reported a reduction of presumed malaria cases at the end of 2014. The changes were related to an increase in the acceptance and use of available preventive measures, such as indoor residual spraying and

  2. Tsunami risk mapping simulation for Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, S.Y.; Koh, H. L.; Moh, Y.T.; De Angelis, D. L.; Jiang, J.

    2011-01-01

    The 26 December 2004 Andaman mega tsunami killed about a quarter of a million people worldwide. Since then several significant tsunamis have recurred in this region, including the most recent 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami. These tsunamis grimly remind us of the devastating destruction that a tsunami might inflict on the affected coastal communities. There is evidence that tsunamis of similar or higher magnitudes might occur again in the near future in this region. Of particular concern to Malaysia are tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring along the northern part of the Sunda Trench. Further, the Manila Trench in the South China Sea has been identified as another source of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes that might trigger large tsunamis. To protect coastal communities that might be affected by future tsunamis, an effective early warning system must be properly installed and maintained to provide adequate time for residents to be evacuated from risk zones. Affected communities must be prepared and educated in advance regarding tsunami risk zones, evacuation routes as well as an effective evacuation procedure that must be taken during a tsunami occurrence. For these purposes, tsunami risk zones must be identified and classified according to the levels of risk simulated. This paper presents an analysis of tsunami simulations for the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea for the purpose of developing a tsunami risk zone classification map for Malaysia based upon simulated maximum wave heights. ?? 2011 WIT Press.

  3. Malaria and blood transfusion: major issues of blood safety in malaria-endemic countries and strategies for mitigating the risk of Plasmodium parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Saleh; Karunamoorthi, Kaliyaperumal

    2016-01-01

    Malaria inflicts humankind over centuries, and it remains as a major threat to both clinical medicine and public health worldwide. Though hemotherapy is a life-sustaining modality, it continues to be a possible source of disease transmission. Hence, hemovigilance is a matter of grave concern in the malaria-prone third-world countries. In order to pursue an effective research on hemovigilance, a comprehensive search has been conducted by using the premier academic-scientific databases, WHO documents, and English-language search engines. One hundred two appropriate articles were chosen for data extraction, with a particular reference to emerging pathogens transmitted through blood transfusion, specifically malaria. Blood donation screening is done through microscopic examination and immunological assays to improve the safety of blood products by detection major blood-borne pathogens, viz., HIV, HBV, HCV, syphilis, and malarial parasites. Transfusion therapy significantly dwindles the preventable morbidity and mortality attributed to various illnesses and diseases, particularly AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Examination of thick and thin blood smears are performed to detect positivity and to identify the Plasmodium species, respectively. However, all of these existing diagnostic tools have their own limitations in terms of sensitivity, specificity, cost-effectiveness, and lack of resources and skilled personnel. Globally, despite the mandate need of screening blood and its components according to the blood-establishment protocols, it is seldom practiced in the low-income/poverty-stricken settings. In addition, each and every single phase of transfusion chain carries sizable inherent risks from donors to recipients. Interestingly, opportunities also lie ahead to enhance the safety of blood-supply chain and patients. It can be achieved through sustainable blood-management strategies like (1) appropriate usage of precise diagnostic tools/techniques, (2) promoting

  4. Mapping transmission foci to eliminate malaria in the People's Republic of China, 2010-2015: a retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jun; Tu, Hong; Zhang, Li; Zhang, Shaosen; Jiang, Shan; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Shuisen

    2018-03-07

    China has initiated the National Malaria Elimination Action Plan, which aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, the transmission of malaria occurs sporadically or in distinct foci, which greatly hampers progress toward elimination in China and other countries. The object of this study was to foci categorization and evaluates whether the response met the requirements issued by the nation or WHO. Residual transmissions were investigated and located with fine spatial resolution mapping from parasitological confirmed malaria cases by use of routine national surveillance data. The "1-3-7" timeframes were monitored for each focus between 2012 and 2015. Each focus was identified, and the application of appropriate measures was evaluated. A total of 5996 indigenous cases were recorded between 2010 and 2015; during this period, the number of cases declined by 99.1% (2010, n = 4262; 2015, n = 39). Most indigenous cases (92.5%) were reported in Anhui (n = 2326), Yunnan (n = 1373), Henan (n = 930), Hubei (n = 459), and Guizhou (n = 458). The temporal distribution showed that the indigenous malaria cases were clustered during the period of May to August. A total of 320 foci were carefully investigated and analyzed: 24 were active foci; 72, residual non-active foci; and 224 cleared-up foci. For the foci response evaluation, all the active foci were investigated within 7 days, while 80.2% of the residual non-active foci were responded within 7 days. In addition, reactive case detection (RACD) was carried out with 92.9% of the active foci and vector investigation carried out with 75%. For residual non-active foci, RACD was carried out with 83.2% and vector investigation with 78.2% of the foci. This study used nationwide data to categorize foci in China and evaluate the response of these areas during the control and elimination phases. Our approach stratifies future control responses by identifying those locations where the elimination of endemic

  5. Status of insecticide resistance in high-risk malaria provinces in Afghanistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mushtaq; Buhler, Cyril; Pignatelli, Patricia; Ranson, Hilary; Nahzat, Sami Mohammad; Naseem, Mohammad; Sabawoon, Muhammad Farooq; Siddiqi, Abdul Majeed; Vink, Martijn

    2016-02-18

    Insecticide resistance seriously threatens the efficacy of vector control interventions in malaria endemic countries. In Afghanistan, the status of insecticide resistance is largely unknown while distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets has intensified in recent years. The main objective of this study was thus to measure the level of resistance to four classes of insecticides in provinces with medium to high risk of malaria transmission. Adult female mosquitoes were reared from larvae successively collected in the provinces of Nangarhar, Kunar, Badakhshan, Ghazni and Laghman from August to October 2014. WHO insecticide susceptibility tests were performed with DDT (4 %), malathion (5 %), bendiocarb (0.1 %), permethrin (0.75 %) and deltamethrin (0.05 %). In addition, the presence of kdr mutations was investigated in deltamethrin resistant and susceptible Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes collected in the eastern provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar. Analyses of mortality rates revealed emerging resistance against all four classes of insecticides in the provinces located east and south of the Hindu Kush mountain range. Resistance is observed in both An. stephensi and Anopheles culicifacies, the two dominant malaria vectors in these provinces. Anopheles superpictus in the northern province of Badakhshan shows a different pattern of susceptibility with suspected resistance observed only for deltamethrin and bendiocarb. Genotype analysis of knock down resistance (kdr) mutations at the voltage-gated channel gene from An. stephensi mosquitoes shows the presence of the known resistant alleles L1014S and L1014F. However, a significant fraction of deltamethrin-resistant mosquitoes were homozygous for the 1014L wild type allele indicating that other mechanisms must be considered to account for the observed pyrethroid resistance. This study confirms the importance of monitoring insecticide resistance for the development of an integrated vector management in Afghanistan. The

  6. Altered environment and risk of malaria outbreak in South Andaman, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, India affected by tsunami disaster

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    Shriram AN

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pools of salt water and puddles created by giant waves from the sea due to the tsunami that occurred on 26th December 2004 would facilitate increased breeding of brackish water malaria vector, Anopheles sundaicus. Land uplifts in North Andaman and subsidence in South Andaman have been reported and subsidence may lead to environmental disturbances and vector proliferation. This warrants a situation analysis and vector surveillance in the tsunami hit areas endemic for malaria transmitted by brackish water mosquito, An. sundaicus to predict the risk of outbreak. Methods An extensive survey was carried out in the tsunami-affected areas in Andaman district of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India to assess the extent of breeding of malaria vectors in the habitats created by seawater flooding. Types of habitats in relation to source of seawater inundation and frequency were identified. The salinity of the water samples and the mosquito species present in the larval samples collected from these habitats were recorded. The malaria situation in the area was also analysed. Results South Andaman, covering Port Blair and Ferrargunj sub districts, is still under the recurring phenomenon of seawater intrusion either directly from the sea or through a network of creeks. Both daily cycles of high tides and periodical spring tides continue to cause flooding. Low-lying paddy fields and fallow land, with a salinity ranging from 3,000 to 42,505 ppm, were found to support profuse breeding of An. sundaicus, the local malaria vector, and Anopheles subpictus, a vector implicated elsewhere. This area is endemic for both vivax and falciparum malaria. Malaria slide positivity rate has started increasing during post-tsunami period, which can be considered as an indication of risk of malaria outbreak. Conclusion Paddy fields and fallow land with freshwater, hitherto not considered as potential sites for An. sundaicus, are now major breeding sites due to

  7. Does radical cure of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum place adults in endemic areas at increased risk of recurrent symptomatic malaria?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Binka, Fred; Koram, Kwadwo; Anto, Francis; Adjuik, Martin; Nkrumah, Francis; Smith, Tom

    2002-07-01

    A cohort of 197 adults in Kassena-Nankana District (northern Ghana) was radically cured of malaria parasites to study subsequent incidence of malaria infection. During the following 20 weeks of the malaria transmission season, 49% experienced clinical attacks associated with Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia. In a group of 202 adults identically followed-up 1 year later without being treated, only 38% experienced such episodes (log-rank test for equality of survivor functions, P=0.035). Clinical attacks in radically cured individuals presented with lower parasite densities but more symptoms. Randomized studies are needed to test the hypothesis that radical cure of P. falciparum enhances the risk and severity of subsequent clinical malaria attacks.

  8. Risk factors for malaria and adverse birth outcomes in a prospective cohort of pregnant women resident in a high malaria transmission area of Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanisic, Danielle I; Moore, Kerryn A; Baiwog, Francesca; Ura, Alice; Clapham, Caroline; King, Christopher L; Siba, Peter M; Beeson, James G; Mueller, Ivo; Fowkes, Freya J; Rogerson, Stephen J

    2015-05-01

    Low birth weight (LBW), anaemia and malaria are common in Papua New Guinean women. To identify risk factors for LBW, anaemia and preterm delivery (PTD), pregnant women recruited into a cohort study in Madang, Papua New Guinea, were followed to delivery. Of 470 women enrolled, delivery data were available for 328 (69.7%). By microscopy, 34.4% (113/328) of women had malaria parasitaemia at enrolment and 12.5% (41/328) at delivery; at each time point, PCR detected sub-microscopic parasitaemia in substantially more. Most infections were with Plasmodium falciparum; the remainder being predominantly P. vivax. Anaemia and smoking were associated with lower birth weight, and LBW (16.7%; 51/305) and PTD (21.8%; 63/290) were common. Histopathologically diagnosed chronic placental malaria was associated with LBW (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.3; p=0.048) and PTD (aOR 4.2; p=0.01). Lack of maternal education predisposed to PTD. Sub-microscopic parasitaemia at delivery appeared to increase the risk of LBW. Of the genetic polymorphisms, Southeast Asian ovalocytosis, α(+)-thalassaemia and complement receptor 1 (CR1) deficiency, a CR1 heterozygous genotype was associated with decreased risk of anaemia and substantial but non-significant effects were noted in other comparisons. In coastal Papua New Guinea, malaria and anaemia are important causes of adverse pregnancy outcomes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Malaria transmission risk variations derived from different agricultural practices in an irrigated area of northern Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ijumba, J N; Mosha, F W; Lindsay, S W

    2002-03-01

    Malaria vector Anopheles and other mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) were monitored for 12 months during 1994-95 in villages of Lower Moshi irrigation area (37 degrees 20' E, 3 degrees 21' S; approximately 700 m a.s.l.) south of Mount Kilimanjaro in northern Tanzania. Adult mosquito populations were sampled fortnightly by five methods: human bait collection indoors (18.00-06.00 hours) and outdoors (18.00-24.00 hours); from daytime resting-sites indoors and outdoors; by CDC light-traps over sleepers. Anopheles densities and rates of survival, anthropophily and malaria infection were compared between three villages representing different agro-ecosystems: irrigated sugarcane plantation; smallholder rice irrigation scheme, and savannah with subsistence crops. Respective study villages were Mvuleni (population 2200), Chekereni (population 3200) and Kisangasangeni (population approximately/= 1000), at least 7 km apart. Anopheles arabiensis Patton was found to be the principal malaria vector throughout the study area, with An. funestus Giles sensu lato of secondary importance in the sugarcane and savannah villages. Irrigated sugarcane cultivation resulted in water pooling, but this did not produce more vectors. Anopheles arabiensis densities averaged four-fold higher in the ricefield village, although their human blood-index was significantly less (48%) than in the sugarcane (68%) or savannah (66%) villages, despite similar proportions of humans and cows (ratio 1:1.1-1.4) as the main hosts at all sites. Parous rates, duration of the gonotrophic cycle and survival rates of An. arabiensis were similar in villages of all three agro-ecosystems. The potential risk of malaria, based on measurements of vectorial capacity of An. arabiensis and An.funestus combined, was four-fold higher in the ricefield village than in the sugarcane or savannah villages nearby. However, the more realistic estimate of malaria risk, based on entomological inoculation rates, indicated that exposure to

  10. Housing Improvements and Malaria Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multi-Country Analysis of Survey Data.

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    Lucy S Tusting

    2017-02-01

    : adjusted OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.97, p = 0.003; RDT: adjusted OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80-0.92, p < 0.001. This association was consistent regardless of ITN usage. As a comparison, the odds of malaria infection were 15% to 16% lower among ITN users versus non-users (microscopy: adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.79-0.90, p < 0.001; RDT: adjusted OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90, p < 0.001. The main limitation of this study is that residual confounding by household wealth of the observed association between housing quality and malaria prevalence is possible, since the wealth index may not have fully captured differences in socioeconomic position; however, the use of multiple national surveys offers the advantage of a large sample size and the elimination of many biases typically associated with pooling observational data.Housing quality is an important risk factor for malaria infection across the spectrum of malaria endemicity in SSA, with a strength of association between housing quality and malaria similar to that observed between ITN use and malaria. Improved housing should be considered a promising intervention for malaria control and elimination and long-term prevention of reintroduction.

  11. Maps of the Sri Lanka malaria situation preceding the tsunami and key aspects to be considered in the emergency phase and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Briët, Olivier J T; Galappaththy, Gawrie N L; Konradsen, Flemming

    2005-01-01

    is necessary, especially as December-February is normally the peak transmission season. Despite some losses, the Sri Lanka public health system is capable of dealing with the possible threat of a malaria outbreak after the tsunami. The influx of foreign medical assistance, drugs, and insecticides may interfere......BACKGROUND: Following the tsunami, a detailed overview of the area specific transmission levels is essential in assessing the risk of malaria in Sri Lanka. Recent information on vector insecticide resistance, parasite drug resistance, and insights into the national policy for malaria diagnosis...... of published reports and routinely collected information was performed. RESULTS: The incidence of malaria was only 1 case per thousand population in the 10 months leading up to the disaster, in the districts with the highest transmission. CONCLUSION: Although relocated people may be more exposed to mosquito...

  12. Lack of patient risk counselling and a broader provider training affect malaria control in remote Somalia Kenya border: Qualitative assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asgary, Ramin; Grigoryan, Zoya; Naderi, Ramesh; Allan, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Effectiveness of providing health education solely via mass media and the providers' targeted training in malaria control needs further exploration. During pre-epidemic season, we conducted a qualitative study of 40 providers and community leaders using focus groups, comprehensive semi-structured interviews and consultation observations. Interviews were transcribed, coded and analysed for major themes. Community leaders believe that they can acquire malaria from contaminated water, animal products, air or garbage. Consequently, they under-utilise bed nets and other protective measures due to perceived continued exposure to other potential malaria sources. Practitioners do not provide individualised health counselling and risk assessment to patients during sick visits, leading to a range of misconceptions about malaria based on limited knowledge from rumours and mass media, and a strong belief in the curative power of traditional medicine. Providers overdiagnose malaria clinically and underutilise available tests due to time constraints, and the lack of training and resources to correctly diagnose other illnesses. Subsequently, misdiagnoses lead them to question the efficacy of recommended treatments. Promoting counselling during clinical encounters to address patient misconception and change risky behaviour is warranted. Wider-ranging ongoing training could enable providers to properly diagnose and manage differential diagnoses to manage malaria better.

  13. Finding malaria hot-spots in northern Angola: the role of individual, household and environmental factors within a meso-endemic area

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    Magalhães Ricardo J

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identifying and targeting hyper-endemic communities within meso-endemic areas constitutes an important challenge in malaria control in endemic countries such like Angola. Recent national and global predictive maps of malaria allow the identification and quantification of the population at risk of malaria infection in Angola, but their small-scale accuracy is surrounded by large uncertainties. To observe the need to develop higher resolution malaria endemicity maps a predictive risk map of malaria infection for the municipality of Dande (a malaria endemic area in Northern Angola was developed and compared to existing national and global maps, the role of individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria endemicity was quantified and the spatial variation in the number of children at-risk of malaria was estimated. Methods Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to predict small-scale spatial variation using data collected during a parasitological survey conducted from May to August 2010. Maps of the posterior distributions of predicted prevalence were constructed in a geographical information system. Results Malaria infection was significantly associated with maternal malaria awareness, households with canvas roofing, distance to health care centre and distance to rivers. The predictive map showed remarkable spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk across the Dande municipality in contrast to previous national and global spatial risk models; large high-risk areas of malaria infection (prevalence >50% were found in the northern and most eastern areas of the municipality, in line with the observed prevalence. Conclusions There is remarkable spatial heterogeneity of malaria burden which previous national and global spatial modelling studies failed to identify suggesting that the identification of malaria hot-spots within seemingly mesoendemic areas may require the generation of high resolution malaria maps

  14. Finding malaria hot-spots in northern Angola: the role of individual, household and environmental factors within a meso-endemic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magalhães, Ricardo J Soares; Langa, Antonio; Sousa-Figueiredo, José Carlos; Clements, Archie C A; Nery, Susana Vaz

    2012-11-22

    Identifying and targeting hyper-endemic communities within meso-endemic areas constitutes an important challenge in malaria control in endemic countries such like Angola. Recent national and global predictive maps of malaria allow the identification and quantification of the population at risk of malaria infection in Angola, but their small-scale accuracy is surrounded by large uncertainties. To observe the need to develop higher resolution malaria endemicity maps a predictive risk map of malaria infection for the municipality of Dande (a malaria endemic area in Northern Angola) was developed and compared to existing national and global maps, the role of individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria endemicity was quantified and the spatial variation in the number of children at-risk of malaria was estimated. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to predict small-scale spatial variation using data collected during a parasitological survey conducted from May to August 2010. Maps of the posterior distributions of predicted prevalence were constructed in a geographical information system. Malaria infection was significantly associated with maternal malaria awareness, households with canvas roofing, distance to health care centre and distance to rivers. The predictive map showed remarkable spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk across the Dande municipality in contrast to previous national and global spatial risk models; large high-risk areas of malaria infection (prevalence >50%) were found in the northern and most eastern areas of the municipality, in line with the observed prevalence. There is remarkable spatial heterogeneity of malaria burden which previous national and global spatial modelling studies failed to identify suggesting that the identification of malaria hot-spots within seemingly mesoendemic areas may require the generation of high resolution malaria maps. Individual, household and hydrological factors play an important role

  15. Risk Factors In Malaria Mortality Among Children In Northern Ghana: A Case Study At The Tamale Teaching Hospital

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    A.R. Abdul-Aziz

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is hyper-endemic in Ghana, accounting for 44% of outpatient attendance, 13% of all hospital deaths, and 22% of mortality among children less than five years of age. The paper analyzed the risk factors of malaria mortality among children using a logistic regression model and also assessed the interaction effect between age and treatment of malaria patient. Secondary data was obtained from the inpatient morbidity and mortality returns register at Tamale Teaching Hospital, from 1st January 2008 to 31st December 2010. The results showed that risk factors such as referral status, age, distance, treatment and length of stay on admission were important predictors of malaria mortality. However, it was found that the risk factors; sex and season were not good predictors of malaria mortality. Finally, the interaction effect between age and treatment was found to be significant. It was recommended, among other things, that the government should provide more assessable roads and expand ambulance services to the various Districts/communities in and around the Tamale metropolis to facilitate referral cases.

  16. Application of GIS to predict malaria hotspots based on Anopheles arabiensis habitat suitability in Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwitira, Isaiah; Murwira, Amon; Zengeya, Fadzai M.; Shekede, Munyaradzi Davis

    2018-02-01

    Malaria remains a major public health problem and a principal cause of morbidity and mortality in most developing countries. Although malaria still presents health problems, significant successes have been recorded in reducing deaths resulting from the disease. As malaria transmission continues to decline, control interventions will increasingly depend on the ability to define high-risk areas known as malaria hotspots. Therefore, there is urgent need to use geospatial tools such as geographic information system to detect spatial patterns of malaria and delineate disease hot spots for better planning and management. Thus, accurate mapping and prediction of seasonality of malaria hotspots is an important step towards developing strategies for effective malaria control. In this study, we modelled seasonal malaria hotspots as a function of habitat suitability of Anopheles arabiensis (A. Arabiensis) as a first step towards predicting likely seasonal malaria hotspots that could provide guidance in targeted malaria control. We used Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial statistic methods to identify seasonal hotspots of malaria cases at the country level. In order to achieve this, we first determined the spatial distribution of seasonal malaria hotspots using the Getis Ord Gi* statistic based on confirmed positive malaria cases recorded at health facilities in Zimbabwe over four years (1996-1999). We then used MAXENT technique to model habitat suitability of A. arabiensis from presence data collected from 1990 to 2002 based on bioclimatic variables and altitude. Finally, we used autologistic regression to test the extent to which malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability. Our results show that A. arabiensis habitat suitability consistently and significantly (p < 0.05) predicts malaria hotspots from 1996 to 1999. Overall, our results show that malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability, suggesting

  17. Using Respondent Driven Sampling to Identify Malaria Risks and Occupational Networks among Migrant Workers in Ranong, Thailand.

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    Piyaporn Wangroongsarb

    Full Text Available Ranong Province in southern Thailand is one of the primary entry points for migrants entering Thailand from Myanmar, and borders Kawthaung Township in Myanmar where artemisinin resistance in malaria parasites has been detected. Areas of high population movement could increase the risk of spread of artemisinin resistance in this region and beyond.A respondent-driven sampling (RDS methodology was used to compare migrant populations coming from Myanmar in urban (Site 1 vs. rural (Site 2 settings in Ranong, Thailand. The RDS methodology collected information on knowledge, attitudes, and practices for malaria, travel and occupational histories, as well as social network size and structure. Individuals enrolled were screened for malaria by microscopy, Real Time-PCR, and serology.A total of 619 participants were recruited in Ranong City and 623 participants in Kraburi, a rural sub-district. By PCR, a total of 14 (1.1% samples were positive (2 P. falciparum in Site 1; 10 P. vivax, 1 Pf, and 1 P. malariae in Site 2. PCR analysis demonstrated an overall weighted prevalence of 0.5% (95% CI, 0-1.3% in the urban site and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.5-1.7% in the rural site for all parasite species. PCR positivity did not correlate with serological positivity; however, as expected there was a strong association between antibody prevalence and both age and exposure. Access to long-lasting insecticidal treated nets remains low despite relatively high reported traditional net use among these populations.The low malaria prevalence, relatively smaller networks among migrants in rural settings, and limited frequency of travel to and from other areas of malaria transmission in Myanmar, suggest that the risk for the spread of artemisinin resistance from this area may be limited in these networks currently but may have implications for regional malaria elimination efforts.

  18. Population Movement as a Risk Factor for Malaria Infection in High-Altitude Villages of Tahtay-Maychew District, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haile, Mebrahtom; Lemma, Hailemariam; Weldu, Yemane

    2017-09-01

    Key goal and targets of the Ethiopia National Malaria Control Program are to achieve malaria elimination within specific geographical areas with historically low malaria transmission and to reach near-zero malaria transmission in the remaining malarious areas by 2020. However, back and forth population movement between high-transmission and low-transmission area imposes challenge on the success of national malaria control programs. Therefore, examining the effect of human movement and identification of at-risk populations is crucial in an elimination setting. A matched case-control study was conducted among 520 study participants at a community level in low malaria transmission settings in northern Ethiopia. Study participants who received a malaria test were interviewed regarding their recent travel history. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to determine if the reported travel was related to malaria infection. Younger age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73, 5.89) and travel in the previous month (AOR = 11.40, 95% CI: 6.91, 18.82) were statistically significant risk factors for malaria infection. Other statistically significant factors, including lower educational level (AOR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86) and nonagricultural in occupation (AOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.94), were also found as risk factors for malaria infection. Generally, travel history was found to be a strong predictor for malaria acquisition in the high-altitude villages. Therefore, besides the existing efforts in endemic areas, targeting those who frequently travel to malarious areas is crucial to reduce malaria infection risks and possibility of local transmissions in high-altitude areas of northern Ethiopia.

  19. National Fire Risk Map for Continental USA: Creation and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Q; Wollersheim, M; Griffiths, S; Maddox, I

    2014-01-01

    A nation-wide fire risk map for the continental USA has been created based on a hybrid fire risk model, incorporating a combination of static risk indicators which change very slowly over time, and dynamic risk indicators that may vary significantly from week-to-week. Static risk indicators include: terrain elevation, terrain slope, terrain aspect, and distance from roads and settlements. Each of the static risk indicators are derived from Intermap's high-accuracy NEXTMap ® USA database. The dynamic risk indicators are derived from satellite-based multi-spectral imagery and provide a snapshot of the fuel-moisture conditions during fire seasons. Each of these risk indicators are combined to produce a map provided at 5m posting and normalized to the range of 0 (very low risk) and 255 (very high risk). The map has been validated in two selected areas using historical fire information

  20. Applications of Bayesian approach in modelling risk of malaria-related hospital mortality

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    Simbeye Jupiter S

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

  1. IgG responses to Anopheles gambiae salivary antigen gSG6 detect variation in exposure to malaria vectors and disease risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stone, Will; Bousema, Teun; Jones, Sophie

    2012-01-01

    as the basis of an immuno-assay determining exposure to Afrotropical malaria vectors. In the present study, IgG responses to gSG6 and 6 malaria antigens (CSP, AMA-1, MSP-1, MSP-3, GLURP R1, and GLURP R2) were compared to Anopheles exposure and malaria incidence in a cohort of children from Korogwe district...... with subsequent malaria incidence (test for trend p¿=¿0.004), comparable to malaria antigens MSP-1 and GLURP R2. Our results show that the gSG6 assay is sensitive to micro-epidemiological variations in exposure to Anopheles mosquitoes, and provides a correlate of malaria risk that is unrelated to immune...

  2. Prevalence, features and risk factors for malaria co-infections amongst visceral leishmaniasis patients from Amudat Hospital, Uganda.

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    Erika van den Bogaart

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY: Due to geographic overlap of malaria and visceral leishmaniasis (VL, co-infections may exist but have been poorly investigated. To describe prevalence, features and risk factors for VL-malaria co-infections, a case-control analysis was conducted on data collected at Amudat Hospital, Uganda (2000-2006 by Médecins sans Frontières. Cases were identified as patients with laboratory-confirmed VL and malaria at hospital admission or during hospitalization; controls were VL patients with negative malaria smears. A logistic regression analysis was performed to study the association between patients' characteristics and the occurrence of the co-infection. RESULTS: Of 2414 patients with confirmed VL, 450 (19% were positively diagnosed with concomitant malaria. Most co-infected patients were males, residing in Kenya (69%. While young age was identified by multivariate analysis as a risk factor for concurrent VL and malaria, particularly the age groups 0-4 (odds ratio (OR: 2.44; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.52-3.92 and 5-9 years (OR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.45-3-45, mild (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.32-0.88 and moderate (OR: 0.45; 95% CI: 0.27-0.77 anemia negatively correlated with the co-morbidity. VL patients harboring skin infections were nearly three times less likely to have the co-infection (OR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.17-0.72, as highlighted by the multivariate model. Anorexia was slightly more frequent among co-infected patients (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 0.96-3.03. The in-hospital case-fatality rate did not significantly differ between cases and controls, being 2.7% and 3.1% respectively (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.46-1.63. CONCLUSIONS: Concurrent malaria represents a common condition among young VL patients living in the Pokot region of Kenya and Uganda. Although these co-morbidities did not result in a poorer prognosis, possibly due to early detection of malaria, a positive trend towards more severe symptoms was identified, indicating that routine

  3. Malaria Prevention, Mefloquine Neurotoxicity, Neuropsychiatric Illness, and Risk-Benefit Analysis in the Australian Defence Force

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    Stuart McCarthy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Australian Defence Force (ADF has used mefloquine for malaria chemoprophylaxis since 1990. Mefloquine has been found to be a plausible cause of a chronic central nervous system toxicity syndrome and a confounding factor in the diagnosis of existing neuropsychiatric illnesses prevalent in the ADF such as posttraumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury. Overall health risks appear to have been mitigated by restricting the drug’s use; however serious risks were realised when significant numbers of ADF personnel were subjected to clinical trials involving the drug. The full extent of the exposure, health impacts for affected individuals, and consequences for ADF health management including mental health are not yet known, but mefloquine may have caused or aggravated neuropsychiatric illness in large numbers of patients who were subsequently misdiagnosed and mistreated or otherwise failed to receive proper care. Findings in relation to chronic mefloquine neurotoxicity were foreseeable, but this eventuality appears not to have been considered during risk-benefit analyses. Thorough analysis by the ADF would have identified this long-term risk as well as other qualitative risk factors. Historical exposure of ADF personnel to mefloquine neurotoxicity now also necessitates ongoing risk monitoring and management in the overall context of broader health policies.

  4. Participatory mapping of target areas to enable operational larval source management to suppress malaria vector mosquitoes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

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    Dongus Stefan

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Half of the population of Africa will soon live in towns and cities where it can be protected from malaria by controlling aquatic stages of mosquitoes. Rigorous but affordable and scaleable methods for mapping and managing mosquito habitats are required to enable effective larval control in urban Africa. Methods A simple community-based mapping procedure that requires no electronic devices in the field was developed to facilitate routine larval surveillance in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The mapping procedure included (1 community-based development of sketch maps and (2 verification of sketch maps through technical teams using laminated aerial photographs in the field which were later digitized and analysed using Geographical Information Systems (GIS. Results Three urban wards of Dar es Salaam were comprehensively mapped, covering an area of 16.8 km2. Over thirty percent of this area were not included in preliminary community-based sketch mapping, mostly because they were areas that do not appear on local government residential lists. The use of aerial photographs and basic GIS allowed rapid identification and inclusion of these key areas, as well as more equal distribution of the workload of malaria control field staff. Conclusion The procedure developed enables complete coverage of targeted areas with larval control through comprehensive spatial coverage with community-derived sketch maps. The procedure is practical, affordable, and requires minimal technical skills. This approach can be readily integrated into malaria vector control programmes, scaled up to towns and cities all over Tanzania and adapted to urban settings elsewhere in Africa.

  5. High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2014-05-01

    extinguishing actions, leaving more resources to improve safety in areas at risk. With the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk with high spatial resolution (900 m2) based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November- April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. About 48000 fire perimeters which burnt about 5500 km2 were considered in the analysis. The analysis has been carried out at 30 m spatial resolution. Some important considerations relating to climate and the territorial features that characterize the fire regime at national level contribute to better understand the forest fire phenomena. These results allow to define new strategies for forest fire prevention and management extensible to other geographical areas.

  6. Dynamics of socioeconomic risk factors for neglected tropical diseases and malaria in an armed conflict.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Fürst

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Armed conflict and war are among the leading causes of disability and premature death, and there is a growing share of civilians killed or injured during armed conflicts. A major part of the civilian suffering stems from indirect effects or collateral impact such as changing risk profiles for infectious diseases. We focused on rural communities in the western part of Côte d'Ivoire, where fighting took place during the Ivorian civil war in 2002/2003, and assessed the dynamics of socioeconomic risk factors for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs and malaria. METHODOLOGY: The same standardized and pre-tested questionnaires were administered to the heads of 182 randomly selected households in 25 villages in the region of Man, western Côte d'Ivoire, shortly before and after the 2002/2003 armed conflict. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: There was no difference in crowding as measured by the number of individuals per sleeping room, but the inadequate sanitation infrastructure prior to the conflict further worsened, and the availability and use of protective measures against mosquito bites and accessibility to health care infrastructure deteriorated. Although the direct causal chain between these findings and the conflict are incomplete, partially explained by the very nature of working in conflict areas, the timing and procedures of the survey, other sources and anecdotal evidence point toward a relationship between an increased risk of suffering from NTDs and malaria and armed conflict. CONCLUSION: New research is needed to deepen our understanding of the often diffuse and neglected indirect effects of armed conflict and war, which may be worse than the more obvious, direct effects.

  7. [Risk maps. The concept and the methodology for their development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Gómez, M M

    1994-01-01

    In this article the concept of risk map is revised. It is considered as an instrument for the knowledge of risks and damages in a certain environment. A historic revision is made analyzing the birth and evolution of the concept. Different experiences and types of maps in different countries are described. Finally the operative steps, the data sources and the risk indicators which should be used in Spain are included.

  8. The necessity of flood risk maps on Timis River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldescu, Geogr Catalin

    2008-01-01

    The paper aims to clarify the necessity of risk reduction in flood prone areas along the Timis River. Different methods to reduce risk in flood prone areas are analyzed as well. According to the EU Flood Directive it is mandatory for the European countries to develop flood maps and flood risk maps. The maps help to assess the vulnerable zones in the floodable (i.e. flood prone) areas. Many European countries have produced maps which identify areas prone to flooding events for specific known return periods. In Romania the flood risk maps have not been yet produced, but the process has been started to be implemented at the national and regional level, therefore the first results will be soon available. Banat Hydrographical Area was affected by severe floods on Timis River in 2000, 2005 and 2006. The 2005 flood was the most devastating one with large economic losses. As a result of these catastrophes the need for generating flood risk maps along the Timis. River was clearly stated. The water management experts can use these maps in order to identify the 'hot spots' in Timis catchment, give the people a better understanding of flood risk issues and help reducing flood risk more efficient in the identified vulnerable areas.

  9. Forest fire risk zonation mapping using remote sensing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Sunil; Arora, M. K.

    2006-12-01

    Forest fires cause major losses to forest cover and disturb the ecological balance in our region. Rise in temperature during summer season causing increased dryness, increased activity of human beings in the forest areas, and the type of forest cover in the Garhwal Himalayas are some of the reasons that lead to forest fires. Therefore, generation of forest fire risk maps becomes necessary so that preventive measures can be taken at appropriate time. These risk maps shall indicate the zonation of the areas which are in very high, high, medium and low risk zones with regard to forest fire in the region. In this paper, an attempt has been made to generate the forest fire risk maps based on remote sensing data and other geographical variables responsible for the occurrence of fire. These include altitude, temperature and soil variations. Key thematic data layers pertaining to these variables have been generated using various techniques. A rule-based approach has been used and implemented in GIS environment to estimate fuel load and fuel index leading to the derivation of fire risk zonation index and subsequently to fire risk zonation maps. The fire risk maps thus generated have been validated on the ground for forest types as well as for forest fire risk areas. These maps would help the state forest departments in prioritizing their strategy for combating forest fires particularly during the fire seasons.

  10. Human movement data for malaria control and elimination strategic planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pindolia, Deepa K; Garcia, Andres J; Wesolowski, Amy; Smith, David L; Buckee, Caroline O; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Tatem, Andrew J

    2012-06-18

    Recent increases in funding for malaria control have led to the reduction in transmission in many malaria endemic countries, prompting the national control programmes of 36 malaria endemic countries to set elimination targets. Accounting for human population movement (HPM) in planning for control, elimination and post-elimination surveillance is important, as evidenced by previous elimination attempts that were undermined by the reintroduction of malaria through HPM. Strategic control and elimination planning, therefore, requires quantitative information on HPM patterns and the translation of these into parasite dispersion. HPM patterns and the risk of malaria vary substantially across spatial and temporal scales, demographic and socioeconomic sub-groups, and motivation for travel, so multiple data sets are likely required for quantification of movement. While existing studies based on mobile phone call record data combined with malaria transmission maps have begun to address within-country HPM patterns, other aspects remain poorly quantified despite their importance in accurately gauging malaria movement patterns and building control and detection strategies, such as cross-border HPM, demographic and socioeconomic stratification of HPM patterns, forms of transport, personal malaria protection and other factors that modify malaria risk. A wealth of data exist to aid filling these gaps, which, when combined with spatial data on transport infrastructure, traffic and malaria transmission, can answer relevant questions to guide strategic planning. This review aims to (i) discuss relevant types of HPM across spatial and temporal scales, (ii) document where datasets exist to quantify HPM, (iii) highlight where data gaps remain and (iv) briefly put forward methods for integrating these datasets in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework for analysing and modelling human population and Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection movements.

  11. Human movement data for malaria control and elimination strategic planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pindolia Deepa K

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent increases in funding for malaria control have led to the reduction in transmission in many malaria endemic countries, prompting the national control programmes of 36 malaria endemic countries to set elimination targets. Accounting for human population movement (HPM in planning for control, elimination and post-elimination surveillance is important, as evidenced by previous elimination attempts that were undermined by the reintroduction of malaria through HPM. Strategic control and elimination planning, therefore, requires quantitative information on HPM patterns and the translation of these into parasite dispersion. HPM patterns and the risk of malaria vary substantially across spatial and temporal scales, demographic and socioeconomic sub-groups, and motivation for travel, so multiple data sets are likely required for quantification of movement. While existing studies based on mobile phone call record data combined with malaria transmission maps have begun to address within-country HPM patterns, other aspects remain poorly quantified despite their importance in accurately gauging malaria movement patterns and building control and detection strategies, such as cross-border HPM, demographic and socioeconomic stratification of HPM patterns, forms of transport, personal malaria protection and other factors that modify malaria risk. A wealth of data exist to aid filling these gaps, which, when combined with spatial data on transport infrastructure, traffic and malaria transmission, can answer relevant questions to guide strategic planning. This review aims to (i discuss relevant types of HPM across spatial and temporal scales, (ii document where datasets exist to quantify HPM, (iii highlight where data gaps remain and (iv briefly put forward methods for integrating these datasets in a Geographic Information System (GIS framework for analysing and modelling human population and Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection movements.

  12. Is there a risk of suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamil A Braima

    Full Text Available The suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia's most developed and populous state still remains a concern for public health in this region. Despite much successful control efforts directed at its reduction, sporadic cases, mostly brought in by foreigners have continued to occur. In addition, cases of simian malaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi, some with fatal outcome have caused grave concern to health workers. The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of local malaria transmission in suburban regions of Selangor, which are adjacent to secondary rainforests.A malaria survey spanning 7 years (2006 - 2012 was conducted in Selangor. A total of 1623 laboratory confirmed malaria cases were reported from Selangor's nine districts. While 72.6% of these cases (1178/1623 were attributed to imported malaria (cases originating from other countries, 25.5% (414/1623 were local cases and 1.9% (31/1623 were considered as relapse and unclassified cases combined. In this study, the most prevalent infection was P. vivax (1239 cases, prevalence 76.3% followed by P. falciparum (211, 13.0%, P. knowlesi (75, 4.6%, P. malariae (71, 4.4% and P. ovale (1, 0.06%. Mixed infections comprising of P. vivax and P. falciparum were confirmed (26, 1.6%. Entomological surveys targeting the residences of malaria patients' showed that the most commonly trapped Anopheles species was An. maculatus. No oocysts or sporozoites were found in the An. maculatus collected. Nevertheless, the possibility of An. maculatus being the malaria vector in the investigated locations was high due to its persistent occurrence in these areas.Malaria cases reported in this study were mostly imported cases. However the co-existence of local cases and potential Plasmodium spp. vectors should be cause for concern. The results of this survey reflect the need of maintaining closely monitored malaria control programs and continuous extensive malaria surveillance in Peninsula

  13. Is there a risk of suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braima, Kamil A; Sum, Jia-Siang; Ghazali, Amir-Ridhwan M; Muslimin, Mustakiza; Jeffery, John; Lee, Wenn-Chyau; Shaker, Mohammed R; Elamin, Alaa-Eldeen M; Jamaiah, Ibrahim; Lau, Yee-Ling; Rohela, Mahmud; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Sitam, Frankie; Mohd-Noh, Rosnida; Abdul-Aziz, Noraishah M

    2013-01-01

    The suburban transmission of malaria in Selangor, Malaysia's most developed and populous state still remains a concern for public health in this region. Despite much successful control efforts directed at its reduction, sporadic cases, mostly brought in by foreigners have continued to occur. In addition, cases of simian malaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi, some with fatal outcome have caused grave concern to health workers. The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of local malaria transmission in suburban regions of Selangor, which are adjacent to secondary rainforests. A malaria survey spanning 7 years (2006 - 2012) was conducted in Selangor. A total of 1623 laboratory confirmed malaria cases were reported from Selangor's nine districts. While 72.6% of these cases (1178/1623) were attributed to imported malaria (cases originating from other countries), 25.5% (414/1623) were local cases and 1.9% (31/1623) were considered as relapse and unclassified cases combined. In this study, the most prevalent infection was P. vivax (1239 cases, prevalence 76.3%) followed by P. falciparum (211, 13.0%), P. knowlesi (75, 4.6%), P. malariae (71, 4.4%) and P. ovale (1, 0.06%). Mixed infections comprising of P. vivax and P. falciparum were confirmed (26, 1.6%). Entomological surveys targeting the residences of malaria patients' showed that the most commonly trapped Anopheles species was An. maculatus. No oocysts or sporozoites were found in the An. maculatus collected. Nevertheless, the possibility of An. maculatus being the malaria vector in the investigated locations was high due to its persistent occurrence in these areas. Malaria cases reported in this study were mostly imported cases. However the co-existence of local cases and potential Plasmodium spp. vectors should be cause for concern. The results of this survey reflect the need of maintaining closely monitored malaria control programs and continuous extensive malaria surveillance in Peninsula Malaysia.

  14. RISK COMMUNICATION IN ACTION: THE TOOLS OF MESSAGE MAPPING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk Communication in Action: The Tools of Message Mapping, is a workbook designed to guide risk communicators in crisis situations. The first part of this workbook will review general guidelines for risk communication. The second part will focus on one of the most robust tools o...

  15. Risk mapping in the customs field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Iordache

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available One of customs main tasks is to assess risks in the flow of goods. Risks are those factors that could influence Customs objectives. In pursuing those objectives it is important to have good knowledge of the risks that we face and the impact they might have on the objectives. The Customs administrations in the Member Stateshave opted to base the control on economic operators on the basis of risk management.The purpose of using risk management is to aim Customs’ control activities on risks rather then on random selected aspects or declarations.

  16. Cognitive structure of occupational risks represented by a perceptual map.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso-Junior, M M; Scarpel, R A

    2012-01-01

    The main focus of risk management is technical and rational analysis about the operational risks and by those imposed by the occupational environment. In this work one seeks to contribute to the risk perception study and to better comprehend how a group of occupational safety students assesses a set of activities and environmental agents. In this way it was used theory sustained by psychometric paradigm and multivariate analysis tools, mainly multidimensional scaling, generalized Procrustes analysis and facets theory, in order to construct the perceptual map of occupational risks. The results obtained showed that the essential characteristics of risks, which were initially splited in 4 facets were detected and maintained in the perceptual map. It was not possible to reveal the cognitive structure of the group, because the variability of the students was too high. Differences among the risks analyzed could not be detected as well in the perceptual map of the group.

  17. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karema Corine

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m, a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted early in 2010. Methods A total of 749 children below five years of age were examined including 545 randomly selected from 24 villages, 103 attending the health centre in charge, and 101 at the referral district hospital. Clinical, parasitological, haematological, and socio-economic data were collected. Results Plasmodium falciparum infection (mean multiplicity, 2.08 was identified by microscopy and PCR in 11.7% and 16.7%, respectively; 5.5% of the children had malaria. PCR-based P. falciparum prevalence ranged between 0 and 38.5% in the villages, and was 21.4% in the health centre, and 14.9% in the hospital. Independent predictors of infection included increasing age, low mid-upper arm circumference, absence of several household assets, reported recent intake of artemether-lumefantrine, and chloroquine in plasma, measured by ELISA. Self-reported bed net use (58% reduced infection only in univariate analysis. In the communities, most infections were seemingly asymptomatic but anaemia was observed in 82% and 28% of children with and without parasitaemia, respectively, the effect increasing with parasite density, and significant also for submicroscopic infections. Conclusions Plasmodium falciparum infection in the highlands surrounding Butare, Rwanda, is seen in one out of six children under five years of age. The abundance of seemingly asymptomatic infections in the community forms a reservoir for transmission in this epidemic-prone area. Risk factors suggestive of low socio-economic status and insufficient effectiveness of self-reported bed net use refer to areas of improvable intervention.

  18. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gahutu, Jean-Bosco; Steininger, Christian; Shyirambere, Cyprien; Zeile, Irene; Cwinya-Ay, Neniling; Danquah, Ina; Larsen, Christoph H; Eggelte, Teunis A; Uwimana, Aline; Karema, Corine; Musemakweri, Andre; Harms, Gundel; Mockenhaupt, Frank P

    2011-05-18

    Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m), a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted early in 2010. A total of 749 children below five years of age were examined including 545 randomly selected from 24 villages, 103 attending the health centre in charge, and 101 at the referral district hospital. Clinical, parasitological, haematological, and socio-economic data were collected. Plasmodium falciparum infection (mean multiplicity, 2.08) was identified by microscopy and PCR in 11.7% and 16.7%, respectively; 5.5% of the children had malaria. PCR-based P. falciparum prevalence ranged between 0 and 38.5% in the villages, and was 21.4% in the health centre, and 14.9% in the hospital. Independent predictors of infection included increasing age, low mid-upper arm circumference, absence of several household assets, reported recent intake of artemether-lumefantrine, and chloroquine in plasma, measured by ELISA. Self-reported bed net use (58%) reduced infection only in univariate analysis. In the communities, most infections were seemingly asymptomatic but anaemia was observed in 82% and 28% of children with and without parasitaemia, respectively, the effect increasing with parasite density, and significant also for submicroscopic infections. Plasmodium falciparum infection in the highlands surrounding Butare, Rwanda, is seen in one out of six children under five years of age. The abundance of seemingly asymptomatic infections in the community forms a reservoir for transmission in this epidemic-prone area. Risk factors suggestive of low socio-economic status and insufficient effectiveness of self-reported bed net use refer to areas of improvable intervention.

  19. MAPPING FRAUD RISK IN FINANCIAL AUDIT – SALES OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan RADU

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an effective tool «fraud risk map« for organizations and auditors in mathematic assessment procedures, with real, tangible results, regarding the organization’s fraud risk exposure. Overcoming the fade and purely theoretical risk assessment methods («based on professional judgement – risk: high, medium, low«, the paper presents risk indicators as warning signals and quantitative and qualitative methods for risk assessment. Illustrating scalability methods and developping a practical tools for material misstatement of the economic entity financial statements, the case study presented, on sales operations, brigs added value to auditors work in the fraud risk assessment procedures.

  20. Malaria parasite carriage and risk determinants in a rural population: a malariometric survey in Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kateera, Fredrick; Mens, Petra F.; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Ingabire, Chantal M.; Muragijemariya, Liberata; Karinda, Parfait; Grobusch, Martin P.; Mutesa, Leon; van Vugt, Michèle

    2015-01-01

    Based on routine health facility case data, Rwanda has achieved a significant malaria burden reduction in the past ten years. However, community-based malaria parasitaemia burden and reasons for continued residual infections, despite a high coverage of control interventions, have yet to be

  1. Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    development (Wang et al., 2008), and chronic diseases. (Hughson et al. ... malaria, HIV, and syphilis also affect birth outcomes. (Watson-Jones .... are the subsistence and cash crops. Small-scale .... phenomenon which has been reported in other areas. (Sone et al. .... T.K. & Brabin, B.J. (2004) Impact of El Nino and malaria ...

  2. Mapping of mosquito breeding sites in malaria endemic areas in Pos Lenjang, Kuala Lipis, Pahang, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Rohani; Ali Wan NWM; Nor Zurainee M; Ismail Zamree; Hadi Azahari A; Ibrahim Mohd N; Lim Lee H

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background The application of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to the study of vector transmitted diseases considerably improves the management of the information obtained from the field survey and facilitates the study of the distribution patterns of the vector species. Methods As part of a study to assess remote sensing data as a tool for vector mapping, geographical features like rivers, small streams, forest, roads and residential area were digitized from the satellite im...

  3. Mapping of interconnection of climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, Tokuta; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Nishina, Kazuya; Takanashi, Kiyoshi; Emori, Seita; Kiguchi, Masashi; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Honda, Yasushi; Okada, Masashi; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Yamamoto, Akitomo; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Iwase, Kenta; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Sakurai, Gen; Iizumi, Toshichika; Oki, Taikan

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  4. Malaria and Tropical Travel

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2008-05-15

    Malaria is a serious mosquito-borne disease that can lead to death. This podcast discusses malaria risk when traveling to tropical areas, as well as how to protect yourself and your family from malaria infection.  Created: 5/15/2008 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 5/29/2008.

  5. Earth observation in support of malaria control and epidemiology: MALAREO monitoring approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Jonas; Gebreslasie, Michael; Bauwens, Ides; Deleu, Julie; Siegert, Florian

    2015-06-03

    Malaria affects about half of the world's population, with the vast majority of cases occuring in Africa. National malaria control programmes aim to reduce the burden of malaria and its negative, socioeconomic effects by using various control strategies (e.g. vector control, environmental management and case tracking). Vector control is the most effective transmission prevention strategy, while environmental factors are the key parameters affecting transmission. Geographic information systems (GIS), earth observation (EO) and spatial modelling are increasingly being recognised as valuable tools for effective management and malaria vector control. Issues previously inhibiting the use of EO in epidemiology and malaria control such as poor satellite sensor performance, high costs and long turnaround times, have since been resolved through modern technology. The core goal of this study was to develop and implement the capabilities of EO data for national malaria control programmes in South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique. High- and very high resolution (HR and VHR) land cover and wetland maps were generated for the identification of potential vector habitats and human activities, as well as geoinformation on distance to wetlands for malaria risk modelling, population density maps, habitat foci maps and VHR household maps. These products were further used for modelling malaria incidence and the analysis of environmental factors that favour vector breeding. Geoproducts were also transferred to the staff of national malaria control programmes in seven African countries to demonstrate how EO data and GIS can support vector control strategy planning and monitoring. The transferred EO products support better epidemiological understanding of environmental factors related to malaria transmission, and allow for spatio-temporal targeting of malaria control interventions, thereby improving the cost-effectiveness of interventions.

  6. Earth observation in support of malaria control and epidemiology: MALAREO monitoring approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Franke

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Malaria affects about half of the world’s population, with the vast majority of cases occuring in Africa. National malaria control programmes aim to reduce the burden of malaria and its negative, socioeconomic effects by using various control strategies (e.g. vector control, environmental management and case tracking. Vector control is the most effective transmission prevention strategy, while environmental factors are the key parameters affecting transmission. Geographic information systems (GIS, earth observation (EO and spatial modelling are increasingly being recognised as valuable tools for effective management and malaria vector control. Issues previously inhibiting the use of EO in epidemiology and malaria control such as poor satellite sensor performance, high costs and long turnaround times, have since been resolved through modern technology. The core goal of this study was to develop and implement the capabilities of EO data for national malaria control programmes in South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique. High- and very high resolution (HR and VHR land cover and wetland maps were generated for the identification of potential vector habitats and human activities, as well as geoinformation on distance to wetlands for malaria risk modelling, population density maps, habitat foci maps and VHR household maps. These products were further used for modelling malaria incidence and the analysis of environmental factors that favour vector breeding. Geoproducts were also transferred to the staff of national malaria control programmes in seven African countries to demonstrate how EO data and GIS can support vector control strategy planning and monitoring. The transferred EO products support better epidemiological understanding of environmental factors related to malaria transmission, and allow for spatio-temporal targeting of malaria control interventions, thereby improving the cost-effectiveness of interventions.

  7. Malaria burden and control in Bangladesh and prospects for elimination: an epidemiological and economic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Ubydul; Overgaard, Hans J; Clements, Archie C A; Norris, Douglas E; Islam, Nazrul; Karim, Jahirul; Roy, Shyamal; Haque, Waziul; Kabir, Moktadir; Smith, David L; Glass, Gregory E

    2014-02-01

    Malaria is endemic in 13 of 64 districts in Bangladesh. About 14 million people are at risk. Some evidence suggests that the prevalence of malaria in Bangladesh has decreased since the the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria started to support the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) in 2007. We did an epidemiological and economic assessment of malaria control in Bangladesh. We obtained annually reported, district-level aggregated malaria case data and information about disbursed funds from the NMCP. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the associations between total malaria, severe malaria, malaria-attributable mortality, and insecticide-treated net coverage. We identified and mapped malaria hotspots using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the NMCP by estimating the cost per confirmed case, cost per treated case, and cost per person of insecticide-treated net coverage. During the study period (from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2012) there were 285,731 confirmed malaria cases. Malaria decreased from 6.2 cases per 1000 population in 2008, to 2.1 cases per 1000 population in 2012. Prevalence of all malaria decreased by 65% (95% CI 65-66), severe malaria decreased by 79% (78-80), and malaria-associated mortality decreased by 91% (83-95). By 2012, there was one insecticide-treated net for every 2.6 individuals (SD 0.20). Districts with more than 0.5 insecticide-treated nets per person had a decrease in prevalence of 21% (95% CI 19-23) for all malaria, 25% (17-32) for severe malaria, and 76% (35-91) for malaria-associated mortality among all age groups. Malaria hotspots remained in the highly endemic districts in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. The cost per diagnosed case was US$0.39 (SD 0.02) and per treated case was $0.51 (0.27); $0.05 (0.04) was invested per person per year for health education and $0.68 (0.30) was spent per person per year for insecticide-treated net coverage. Malaria elimination is an achievable

  8. Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

    2012-04-01

    The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which

  9. Challenges of DHS and MIS to capture the entire pattern of malaria parasite risk and intervention effects in countries with different ecological zones: the case of Cameroon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoda Tonye, Salomon G; Kouambeng, Celestin; Wounang, Romain; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2018-04-06

    In 2011, the demographic and health survey (DHS) in Cameroon was combined with the multiple indicator cluster survey. Malaria parasitological data were collected, but the survey period did not overlap with the high malaria transmission season. A malaria indicator survey (MIS) was also conducted during the same year, within the malaria peak transmission season. This study compares estimates of the geographical distribution of malaria parasite risk and of the effects of interventions obtained from the DHS and MIS survey data. Bayesian geostatistical models were applied on DHS and MIS data to obtain georeferenced estimates of the malaria parasite prevalence and to assess the effects of interventions. Climatic predictors were retrieved from satellite sources. Geostatistical variable selection was used to identify the most important climatic predictors and indicators of malaria interventions. The overall observed malaria parasite risk among children was 33 and 30% in the DHS and MIS data, respectively. Both datasets identified the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the altitude as important predictors of the geographical distribution of the disease. However, MIS selected additional climatic factors as important disease predictors. The magnitude of the estimated malaria parasite risk at national level was similar in both surveys. Nevertheless, DHS estimates lower risk in the North and Coastal areas. MIS did not find any important intervention effects, although DHS revealed that the proportion of population with an insecticide-treated nets access in their household was statistically important. An important negative relationship between malaria parasitaemia and socioeconomic factors, such as the level of mother's education, place of residence and the household welfare were captured by both surveys. Timing of the malaria survey influences estimates of the geographical distribution of disease risk, especially in settings with seasonal transmission. In countries with

  10. Malaria and Agriculture in Kenya

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Nancy Minogue

    die every day from malaria, conventional efforts to control the disease have not worked. Malaria parasites are .... and other animals. Mosquito nets. Provide insecticide-treated bednets to groups at high risk for malaria, namely young children and pregnant women, through partnerships with nongovernmental organizations ...

  11. Rice crop risk map in Babahoyo canton (Ecuador)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde Arias, Omar; Tarquis, Ana; Garrido, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    It is widely known that extreme climatic phenomena occur with more intensity and frequency. This fact has put more pressure over farming, making agricultural and livestock production riskier. In order to reduce hazards and economic loses that could jeopardize farmer's incomes and even its business continuity, it is very important to implement agriculture risk management plans by governments and institutions. One of the main strategies is transfer risk by agriculture insurance. Agriculture insurance based in indexes has a significant growth in the last decade. And consist in a comparison between measured index values with a defined threshold that triggers damage losses. However, based index insurance could not be based on an isolated measurement. It is necessary to be integrated in a complete monitoring system that uses many sources of information and tools. For example, index influence areas, crop production risk maps, crop yields, claim statistics, and so on. Crop production risk is related with yield variation of crops and livestock, due to weather, pests, diseases, and other factors that affect both the quantity and quality of commodities produced. This is the risk which farmers invest more time managing, and it is completely under their control. The aim of this study is generate a crop risk map of rice that can provide risk manager important information about the status of crop facing production risks. Then, based on this information, it will be possible to make best decisions to deal with production risk. The rice crop risk map was generated qualifying a 1:25000 scale soil and climatic map of Babahoyo canton, which is located in coast region of Ecuador, where rice is one of the main crops. The methodology to obtain crop risk map starts by establishing rice crop requirements and indentifying the risks associated with this crop. A second step is to evaluate soil and climatic conditions of the study area related to optimal crop requirements. Based on it, we can

  12. Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Justin M; Ernst, Kacey C; Lindblade, Kim A; Vulule, John M; John, Chandy C; Wilson, Mark L

    2010-11-16

    Identification of high-risk malaria foci can help enhance surveillance or control activities in regions where they are most needed. Associations between malaria risk and land-use/land-cover are well-recognized, but these environmental characteristics are closely interrelated with the land's topography (e.g., hills, valleys, elevation), which also influences malaria risk strongly. Parsing the individual contributions of land-cover/land-use variables to malaria risk requires examining these associations in the context of their topographic landscape. This study examined whether environmental factors like land-cover, land-use, and urban density improved malaria risk prediction based solely on the topographically-determined context, as measured by the topographic wetness index. The topographic wetness index, an estimate of predicted water accumulation in a defined area, was generated from a digital terrain model of the landscape surrounding households in two neighbouring western Kenyan highland communities. Variables determined to best encompass the variance in this topographic wetness surface were calculated at a household level. Land-cover/land-use information was extracted from a high-resolution satellite image using an object-based classification method. Topographic and land-cover variables were used individually and in combination to predict household-level malaria in the communities through an iterative split-sample model fitting and testing procedure. Models with only topographic variables were compared to those with additional predictive factors related to land-cover/land-use to investigate whether these environmental factors improved prediction of malaria based on the shape of the land alone. Variables related to topographic wetness proved most useful in predicting the households of individuals contracting malaria in this region of rugged terrain. Other variables related to human modification of the environment also demonstrated clear associations with

  13. Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vulule John M

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identification of high-risk malaria foci can help enhance surveillance or control activities in regions where they are most needed. Associations between malaria risk and land-use/land-cover are well-recognized, but these environmental characteristics are closely interrelated with the land's topography (e.g., hills, valleys, elevation, which also influences malaria risk strongly. Parsing the individual contributions of land-cover/land-use variables to malaria risk requires examining these associations in the context of their topographic landscape. This study examined whether environmental factors like land-cover, land-use, and urban density improved malaria risk prediction based solely on the topographically-determined context, as measured by the topographic wetness index. Methods The topographic wetness index, an estimate of predicted water accumulation in a defined area, was generated from a digital terrain model of the landscape surrounding households in two neighbouring western Kenyan highland communities. Variables determined to best encompass the variance in this topographic wetness surface were calculated at a household level. Land-cover/land-use information was extracted from a high-resolution satellite image using an object-based classification method. Topographic and land-cover variables were used individually and in combination to predict household-level malaria in the communities through an iterative split-sample model fitting and testing procedure. Models with only topographic variables were compared to those with additional predictive factors related to land-cover/land-use to investigate whether these environmental factors improved prediction of malaria based on the shape of the land alone. Results Variables related to topographic wetness proved most useful in predicting the households of individuals contracting malaria in this region of rugged terrain. Other variables related to human modification of the

  14. Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

    2012-08-01

    Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. About Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Emergency Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us About Malaria Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Malaria is ... from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. About Malaria Topics FAQs Frequently Asked Question, Incubation period, uncomplicated & ...

  16. Geospatial Technology: A Tool to Aid in the Elimination of Malaria in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen E. Kirk

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is a malaria endemic country. There are 13 districts in the country bordering India and Myanmar that are at risk of malaria. The majority of malaria morbidity and mortality cases are in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, the mountainous southeastern region of Bangladesh. In recent years, malaria burden has declined in the country. In this study, we reviewed and summarized published data (through 2014 on the use of geospatial technologies on malaria epidemiology in Bangladesh and outlined potential contributions of geospatial technologies for eliminating malaria in the country. We completed a literature review using “malaria, Bangladesh” search terms and found 218 articles published in peer-reviewed journals listed in PubMed. After a detailed review, 201 articles were excluded because they did not meet our inclusion criteria, 17 articles were selected for final evaluation. Published studies indicated geospatial technologies tools (Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing were used to determine vector-breeding sites, land cover classification, accessibility to health facility, treatment seeking behaviors, and risk mapping at the household, regional, and national levels in Bangladesh. To achieve the goal of malaria elimination in Bangladesh, we concluded that further research using geospatial technologies should be integrated into the country’s ongoing surveillance system to identify and better assess progress towards malaria elimination.

  17. Effect of Deforestation and Land Use Changes on Mosquito Productivity and Development in Western Kenya Highlands: Implication for Malaria Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kweka, Eliningaya J; Kimaro, Epiphania E; Munga, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    African highlands were known to be free of malaria for the past 50 years. However, the ever growing human population in the highlands of Africa has led to the deforestation and land coverage changes to create space for more land for cultivation, grazing, and house construction materials needs. This has lead to the creation of suitable breeding habitats, which are in open places. Decrease of canopy and forest cover has led to increased temperature both in outdoors and indoors in deforested areas. This increased temperature has resulted in the shortening of developmental stages of aquatic stages of mosquitoes and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes. Assessment of the effects of deforestation and land coverage changes (decrease), which leads to temperature changes and subsequently increases survivorship of adults and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes' body was gathered from previous data collected from 2003 to 2012 using different analysis techniques. Habitats productivity, species dynamics and abundance, mosquitoes feeding rates, and sporogony development are presented in relation to temperature changes. The effects of temperature rise due to land cover changes in highlands of western Kenya on larval developmental rates, adult sporogony developments, and malaria risk in human population were derived. Vector species dynamics and abundance in relation to land use changes have been found to change with time. This study found that, land cover changes is a key driver for the temperature rise in African highlands and increases the rate of malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae ssp., An. Funestus , and An. arabiensis colonizing the highlands. It has also significantly enhanced sporogony development rate and adult vector survival and therefore the risk of malaria transmission in the highlands.

  18. Malaria in pregnancy | Okpere | Nigerian Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria remains one of the highest contributors to the precarious maternal mortality figures in sub-Saharan Africa. At least 6 million women worldwide are at risk of malaria infection in pregnancy. Malaria contributes to at least 10,000 maternal deaths and to at least 200,000 newborn deaths annually. Malaria is a contributor ...

  19. Increasing resilience through participative flood risk map design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Spira, Yvonne; Stickler, Therese

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, an increasing number of flood hazards has shown to the European Commission and the Member States of the European Union the importance of flood risk management strategies in order to reduce losses and to protect the environment and the citizens. Exposure to floods as well as flood vulnerability might increase across Europe due to the ongoing economic development in many EU countries. Thus even without taking climate change into account an increase of flood disasters in Europe might be foreseeable. These circumstances have produced a reaction in the European Commission, and a Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks was issued as one of the three components of the European Action Programme on Flood Risk Management. Floods have the potential to jeopardise economic development, above all due to an increase of human activities in floodplains and the reduction of natural water retention by land use activities. As a result, an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events is expected. Therefore, concentrated action is needed at the European level to avoid severe impacts on human life and property. In order to have an effective tool available for gathering information, as well as a valuable basis for priority setting and further technical, financial and political decisions regarding flood risk mitigation and management, it is necessary to provide for the establishment of flood risk maps which show the potential adverse consequences associated with different flood scenarios. So far, hazard and risk maps are compiled in terms of a top-down linear approach: planning authorities take the responsibility to create and implement these maps on different national and local scales, and the general public will only be informed about the outcomes (EU Floods Directive, Article 10). For the flood risk management plans, however, an "active involvement of interested parties" is required, which means at least some kind of multilateral

  20. Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

    2011-12-01

    Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

  1. Congenital malaria in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Yong Tao

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Congenital malaria, in which infants are directly infected with malaria parasites from their mother prior to or during birth, is a potentially life-threatening condition that occurs at relatively low rates in malaria-endemic regions. It is recognized as a serious problem in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic sub-Saharan Africa, where recent data suggests that it is more common than previously believed. In such regions where malaria transmission is high, neonates may be protected from disease caused by congenital malaria through the transfer of maternal antibodies against the parasite. However, in low P. vivax-endemic regions, immunity to vivax malaria is low; thus, there is the likelihood that congenital vivax malaria poses a more significant threat to newborn health. Malaria had previously been a major parasitic disease in China, and congenital malaria case reports in Chinese offer valuable information for understanding the risks posed by congenital malaria to neonatal health. As most of the literature documenting congenital malaria cases in China are written in Chinese and therefore are not easily accessible to the global malaria research community, we have undertaken an extensive review of the Chinese literature on this subject. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we reviewed congenital malaria cases from three major searchable Chinese journal databases, concentrating on data from 1915 through 2011. Following extensive screening, a total of 104 cases of congenital malaria were identified. These cases were distributed mainly in the eastern, central, and southern regions of China, as well as in the low-lying region of southwest China. The dominant species was P. vivax (92.50%, reflecting the malaria parasite species distribution in China. The leading clinical presentation was fever, and other clinical presentations were anaemia, jaundice, paleness, diarrhoea, vomiting, and general weakness. With the exception of two cases, all patients

  2. Identifying malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site in context of low transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiath, Mansour; Faye, Babacar; Cisse, Badara; Ndiaye, Jean Louis; Gomis, Jules François; Dia, Anta Tal; Gaye, Oumar

    2014-11-24

    Malaria is major public health problem in Senegal. In some parts of the country, it occurs almost permanently with a seasonal increase during the rainy season. There is evidence to suggest that the prevalence of malaria in Senegal has decreased considerably during the past few years. Recent data from the Senegalese National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) indicates that the number of malaria cases decrease from 1,500,000 in 2006 to 174,339 in 2010. With the decline of malaria morbidity in Senegal, the characterization of the new epidemiological profile of this disease is crucial for public health decision makers. SaTScan™ software using the Kulldorf method of retrospective space-time permutation and the Bernoulli purely spatial model was used to identify malaria clusters using confirmed malaria cases in 74 villages. ArcMAp was used to map malaria hotspots. Logistic regression was used to investigate risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site. A total of 1,614 individuals in 440 randomly selected households were enrolled. The overall malaria prevalence was 12%. The malaria prevalence during the study period varied from less than 2% to more than 25% from one village to another. The results showed also that rooms located between 50 m to 100 m away from livestock holding place [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.044, 95% C.I (1.02 - 7.42)], bed net use [adjusted O.R = 1.2, P = 0.024, 95% C.I (1.02 -1.48)], are good predictors for malaria hotspots in the Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site. The socio economic status of the household also predicted on hotspots patterns. The less poor household are 30% less likely to be classified as malaria hotspots area compared to the poorest household [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.014, 95% C.I (0.47 - 0.91)]. The study investigated risk factors for malaria hotspots in small communities in the Keur Soce site. The result showed considerable variation of malaria

  3. Rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA in sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akogbeto Martin

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA methodology aims to provide a cost-effective tool to conduct rapid assessments of the malaria situation in urban sub-Saharan Africa and to improve the understanding of urban malaria epidemiology. Methods This work was done in Yopougon municipality (Abidjan, Cotonou, Dar es Salaam and Ouagadougou. The study design consists of six components: 1 a literature review, 2 the collection of available health statistics, 3 a risk mapping, 4 school parasitaemia surveys, 5 health facility-based surveys and 6 a brief description of the health care system. These formed the basis of a multi-country evaluation of RUMA's feasibility, consistency and usefulness. Results A substantial amount of literature (including unpublished theses and statistics was found at each site, providing a good overview of the malaria situation. School and health facility-based surveys provided an overview of local endemicity and the overall malaria burden in different city areas. This helped to identify important problems for in-depth assessment, especially the extent to which malaria is over-diagnosed in health facilities. Mapping health facilities and breeding sites allowed the visualization of the complex interplay between population characteristics, health services and malaria risk. However, the latter task was very time-consuming and required special expertise. RUMA is inexpensive, costing around 8,500–13,000 USD for a six to ten-week period. Conclusion RUMA was successfully implemented in four urban areas with different endemicity and proved to be a cost-effective first approach to study the features of urban malaria and provide an evidence basis for planning control measures.

  4. Risk of daytime transmission of malaria in the French Guiana rain forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommier de Santi, V; Dusfour, I; de Parseval, E; Lespinet, B; Nguyen, C; Gaborit, P; Carinci, R; Hyvert, G; Girod, R; Briolant, S

    2017-02-01

    Between 2008 and 2014, there were 1070 malaria cases reported in French Guiana among members of the armed forces. Most of the malaria outbreaks investigated were multifactorial and followed missions conducted at illegal gold mining sites. For example, a malaria outbreak occurred in September 2013, three weeks after the deployment of 15 soldiers at Dagobert, which is such a site. The attack rate was 53%, with seven Plasmodium vivax infections and one coinfection with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Two months later, an entomological investigation in the field caught 321 anopheles by the human landing catch method. Among them, 282 were Anopheles darlingi. One specimen was PCR-positive for P. vivax, for an infection rate of 0.4% (1/282). In 15.7% of these cases, the An. darlingi was caught during the day. The existence of daytime biting activity by An. darlingi in the Guianese forest might play a key role in malaria outbreaks among military personnel. This finding requires that the Army Health Service adapt its recommendations concerning malaria prevention in French Guiana.

  5. African Burkitt lymphoma: age-specific risk and correlations with malaria biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, Benjamin; Kawira, Esther; Ogwang, Martin D; Wabinga, Henry; Magatti, Josiah; Nkrumah, Francis; Neequaye, Janet; Bhatia, Kishor; Brubaker, Glen; Biggar, Robert J; Mbulaiteye, Sam M

    2011-03-01

    African Burkitt lymphoma is an aggressive B-cell, non-Hodgkin lymphoma linked to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Malaria biomarkers related to onset of African Burkitt lymphoma are unknown. We correlated age-specific patterns of 2,602 cases of African Burkitt lymphoma (60% male, mean ± SD age = 7.1 ± 2.9 years) from Uganda, Ghana, and Tanzania with malaria biomarkers published from these countries. Age-specific patterns of this disease and mean multiplicity of P. falciparum malaria parasites, defined as the average number of distinct genotypes per positive blood sample based on the merozoite surface protein-2 assessed by polymerase chain reaction, were correlated and both peaked between 5 and 9 years. This pattern, which was strong and consistent across regions, contrasted parasite prevalence, which peaked at 2 years and decreased slightly, and geometric mean parasite density, which peaked between 2 and 3 years and decreased sharply. Our findings suggest that concurrent infection with multiple malaria genotypes may be related to onset of African Burkitt lymphoma.

  6. Use of geoprocessing to define malaria risk areas and evaluation of the vectorial importance of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneguzzi, Viviane Coutinho; Santos, Claudiney Biral dos; Pinto, Israel de Souza; Feitoza, Leandro Roberto; Feitoza, Hideko Nagatani; Falqueto, Aloísio

    2009-07-01

    In Brazil, introduced malaria occurs from the flat to the sloping hot areas, predominantly outside the Amazon Region, where endemic malaria has occurred in the past. This is a consequence of human migrations to other Brazilian states, including the state of Espírito Santo (ES). The objective of this study was to use geoprocessing to define the areas at risk of introduced malaria transmission and evaluate the vectorial importance of species of anophelines in ES. Anophelines were sampled from 1997-2005 in 297 rural localities identified or not identified as foci of malaria during the last 20 years. The geoclimatic variables temperature, relief and marine influence were obtained from a database of the ES Natural Units. The 14,663 anophelines captured belonged to 22 species. A significant association was found between the occurrence of malaria foci and the presence of hot, low-lying areas or gently undulating to undulating relief. The occurrence of the disease was associated with the presence of Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles aquasalis. Geoprocessing was determined to be a useful tool for defining areas at risk for malaria and vectors in ES.

  7. Methods employed in the prevention and treatment of malaria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    onasoga olayinka

    of malaria among pregnant women in riverine community in Bayelsa State, ... at high risk of the effects of malaria infection and need special protective .... mentioned maintenance of clean environment, as other methods of preventing malaria.

  8. Using mental mapping to unpack perceived cycling risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manton, Richard; Rau, Henrike; Fahy, Frances; Sheahan, Jerome; Clifford, Eoghan

    2016-03-01

    Cycling is the most energy-efficient mode of transport and can bring extensive environmental, social and economic benefits. Research has highlighted negative perceptions of safety as a major barrier to the growth of cycling. Understanding these perceptions through the application of novel place-sensitive methodological tools such as mental mapping could inform measures to increase cyclist numbers and consequently improve cyclist safety. Key steps to achieving this include: (a) the design of infrastructure to reduce actual risks and (b) targeted work on improving safety perceptions among current and future cyclists. This study combines mental mapping, a stated-preference survey and a transport infrastructure inventory to unpack perceptions of cycling risk and to reveal both overlaps and discrepancies between perceived and actual characteristics of the physical environment. Participants translate mentally mapped cycle routes onto hard-copy base-maps, colour-coding road sections according to risk, while a transport infrastructure inventory captures the objective cycling environment. These qualitative and quantitative data are matched using Geographic Information Systems and exported to statistical analysis software to model the individual and (infra)structural determinants of perceived cycling risk. This method was applied to cycling conditions in Galway City (Ireland). Participants' (n=104) mental maps delivered data-rich perceived safety observations (n=484) and initial comparison with locations of cycling collisions suggests some alignment between perception and reality, particularly relating to danger at roundabouts. Attributing individual and (infra)structural characteristics to each observation, a Generalised Linear Mixed Model statistical analysis identified segregated infrastructure, road width, the number of vehicles as well as gender and cycling experience as significant, and interactions were found between individual and infrastructural variables. The paper

  9. Spatial modeling of malaria incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistanprovince, Islamic Republic of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, M.; Mohammad, K.; Frahani, Mahmud M.; Zeraati, H.; Nourijelyani, K.; Zayeri, F.

    2008-01-01

    Objective was to identify the effect of environmental factors on malariarisk and to visualize spatial map of malaria standard incidence rates inSistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran. In thiscross-sectional study, the data from 42, 162 registered new malaria casesfrom 21 March 2001 (Iran new year) to 21 of March 2006 were studied. Todescribe the statistical association between environmental factors andmalaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. Inaddition, we used the second ordered stationary Kriging and a variogram todetermine the appropriate spatial correlation structure among the malariastandard incidence rates, and provide a proper malaria risk map in the areaunder study. The obtained results from the spatial modeling revealed thathumidity (p=0.0004), temperature (p<0.0001) and elevation (p<0.0001) werepositively, and precipitation (p=0.0029) was inversely correlated with themalaria risk. Moreover, the malaria risk amp based on the predicted valuesshowed that the south part of this province (Baluchistan) has a higher riskof malaria, compared to the northern area (Sistan). Since the effectiveenvironmental factors on malaria risk are out of human's control, the healthpolicy makers in this province should pay more attention to the areas withhigher temperature, elevation and humidity, as well as, low rainfalldistricts. (author)

  10. Malaria, malnutrition, and birthweight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cates, Jordan E.; Unger, Holger W.; Briand, Valerie

    2017-01-01

    were identified by the Maternal Malaria and Malnutrition (M3) initiative using a convenience sampling approach and were eligible for pooling given adequate ethical approval and availability of essential variables. Study-specific adjusted effect estimates were calculated using inverse probability...... be multiplicative interaction between malaria infection at enrollment and low MUAC within studies conducted in Africa; however, this finding was not consistent on the additive scale, when accounting for multiple comparisons, or when using other definitions of malaria and malnutrition. The major limitations...... of the study included availability of only 2 cross-sectional measurements of malaria and the limited availability of ultrasound-based pregnancy dating to assess impacts on preterm birth and fetal growth in all studies.  Conclusions : Pregnant women with malnutrition and malaria infection are at increased risk...

  11. Spatio-temporal distribution of mosquitoes and risk of malaria infection in Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Karema, Corine; Munyakanage, Dunia; Githure, John; Mazarati, Jean Baptiste; Tongren, Jon Eric; Takken, Willem; Binagwaho, Agnes; Koenraadt, Constantianus J.M.

    2018-01-01

    To date, the Republic of Rwanda has not systematically reported on distribution, diversity and malaria infectivity rate of mosquito species throughout the country. Therefore, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of mosquitoes in the domestic environment, as well as the nocturnal biting

  12. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gahutu, J.B.; Steininger, C.; Shyirambere, C.; Zeile, I.; Cwinya-Ay, N.; Danquah, I.; Larsen, C.H.; Eggelte, T.A.; Uwimana, A.; Karema, C.; Musemakweri, A.; Harms, G.; Mockenhaupt, F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m), a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted

  13. Prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children in southern highland Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gahutu, Jean-Bosco; Steininger, Christian; Shyirambere, Cyprien; Zeile, Irene; Cwinya-Ay, Neniling; Danquah, Ina; Larsen, Christoph H.; Eggelte, Teunis A.; Uwimana, Aline; Karema, Corine; Musemakweri, Andre; Harms, Gundel; Mockenhaupt, Frank P.

    2011-01-01

    Increased control has produced remarkable reductions of malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda. In the southern highlands, near the district capital of Butare (altitude, 1,768 m), a combined community-and facility-based survey on Plasmodium infection was conducted early in

  14. HIV increases the risk of malaria in women of all gravidities in Kisumu, Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijk, Anna M.; Ayisi, John G.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Misore, Ambrose O.; Otieno, Juliana A.; Rosen, Daniel H.; Kager, Piet A.; Steketee, Richard W.; Nahlen, Bernard L.

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To study the importance of HIV infection for malaria in pregnancy in Kisumu, Kenya. Subjects and methods: Healthy women with an uncomplicated pregnancy of 32 weeks or more attending the prenatal clinic in the Provincial Hospital between June 1996 and March 1999 were tested for HIV and

  15. The Changing Limits and Incidence of Malaria in Africa: 1939–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Robert W.; Amratia, Punam; Kabaria, Caroline W.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Marsh, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the historical, temporal changes of malaria risk following control efforts in Africa provides a unique insight into what has been and might be archived towards a long-term ambition of elimination on the continent. Here, we use archived published and unpublished material combined with biological constraints on transmission accompanied by a narrative on malaria control to document the changing incidence of malaria in Africa since earliest reports pre-second World War. One result is a more informed mapped definition of the changing margins of transmission in 1939, 1959, 1979, 1999 and 2009. PMID:22520443

  16. Risk-based fault detection using Self-Organizing Map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Garaniya, Vikram

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of modern systems is increasing rapidly and the dominating relationships among system variables have become highly non-linear. This results in difficulty in the identification of a system's operating states. In turn, this difficulty affects the sensitivity of fault detection and imposes a challenge on ensuring the safety of operation. In recent years, Self-Organizing Maps has gained popularity in system monitoring as a robust non-linear dimensionality reduction tool. Self-Organizing Map is able to capture non-linear variations of the system. Therefore, it is sensitive to the change of a system's states leading to early detection of fault. In this paper, a new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect and assess the risk of fault. In addition, probabilistic analysis is applied to characterize the risk of fault into different levels according to the hazard potential to enable a refined monitoring of the system. The proposed approach is applied on two experimental systems. The results from both systems have shown high sensitivity of the proposed approach in detecting and identifying the root cause of faults. The refined monitoring facilitates the determination of the risk of fault and early deployment of remedial actions and safety measures to minimize the potential impact of fault. - Highlights: • A new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect faults. • Integration of fault detection with risk assessment methodology. • Fault risk characterization into different levels to enable focused system monitoring

  17. Prevalence of Malaria Infection and Risk Factors Associated with Anaemia among Pregnant Women in Semiurban Community of Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohail, Mohammad; Shakeel, Shayan; Kumari, Shweta; Bharti, Aakanksha; Zahid, Faisal; Anwar, Shadab; Singh, Krishn Pratap; Islam, Mazahirul; Sharma, Ajay Kumar; Lata, Sneh; Ali, Vahab; Adak, Tridibes; Das, Pradeep; Raziuddin, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    The escalating burden, pathogenesis, and clinical sequel of malaria during pregnancy have combinatorial adverse impact on both mother and foetus that further perplexed the situation of diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. This prompted us to evaluate the status of population at risk of MIP in Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India. Cross-sectional study was conducted over a year at Sadar Hospital, Hazaribag. Malaria was screened using blood smear and/or RDT. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin concentration. Pretested questionnaires were used to gather sociodemographic, clinical, and obstetrical data. The prevalence of MIP was 5.4% and 4.3% at ANC and DU, and 13.2% malaria was in women without pregnancy. Interestingly, majority were asymptomatically infected with P. vivax (over 85%) at ANC and DU. Peripheral parasitemia was significantly associated with fever within past week, rural origin of subjects, and first/second pregnancies in multivariate analysis, with the highest risk factor associated with fever followed by rural residence. Strikingly in cohort, anaemia was prevalent in 86% at ANC as compared to 72% at DU, whereas severe anaemia was 13.6% and 7.8% at ANC and DU. Even more anaemia prevalence was observed in MIP group (88% and 89% at ANC and DU), whereas severe anaemia was 23% and 21%, respectively. In view of observed impact of anaemia, parasitemia and asymptomatic infection of P. vivax during pregnancy and delivery suggest prompt diagnosis regardless of symptoms and comprehensive drug regime should be offered to pregnant women in association with existing measures in clinical spectrum of MIP, delivery, and its outcome.

  18. Prevalence of Malaria Infection and Risk Factors Associated with Anaemia among Pregnant Women in Semiurban Community of Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Sohail

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The escalating burden, pathogenesis, and clinical sequel of malaria during pregnancy have combinatorial adverse impact on both mother and foetus that further perplexed the situation of diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. This prompted us to evaluate the status of population at risk of MIP in Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India. Cross-sectional study was conducted over a year at Sadar Hospital, Hazaribag. Malaria was screened using blood smear and/or RDT. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin concentration. Pretested questionnaires were used to gather sociodemographic, clinical, and obstetrical data. The prevalence of MIP was 5.4% and 4.3% at ANC and DU, and 13.2% malaria was in women without pregnancy. Interestingly, majority were asymptomatically infected with P. vivax (over 85% at ANC and DU. Peripheral parasitemia was significantly associated with fever within past week, rural origin of subjects, and first/second pregnancies in multivariate analysis, with the highest risk factor associated with fever followed by rural residence. Strikingly in cohort, anaemia was prevalent in 86% at ANC as compared to 72% at DU, whereas severe anaemia was 13.6% and 7.8% at ANC and DU. Even more anaemia prevalence was observed in MIP group (88% and 89% at ANC and DU, whereas severe anaemia was 23% and 21%, respectively. In view of observed impact of anaemia, parasitemia and asymptomatic infection of P. vivax during pregnancy and delivery suggest prompt diagnosis regardless of symptoms and comprehensive drug regime should be offered to pregnant women in association with existing measures in clinical spectrum of MIP, delivery, and its outcome.

  19. Prevalence Soil Transmitted Helminthiasis and malaria co-infection among pregnant women and risk factors in Gilgel Gibe dam Area, Southwest Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Malaria and Soil Transmitted Helminthiasis (STH) are co-endemic and major public health problems in Ethiopia. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of malaria and STHs co-infection and to determine the association risk factors. Methods A cross-sectional community based study was conducted on 388 pregnant women living in three districts around Gilgel Gibe Dam area, southwestern Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and socio-economic data, single stool sample and blood sample were collected from each participant. Results The prevalence of STH and malaria was 159 (41%) and 45 (11.6%), respectively and the prevalence of STHs/malaria co-infection was 30 (7.7%). Hookworm was the most prevalent 114 (29.4%) soil transmitted helminthiasis infection followed by Ascaris lumbricoides (A. lumbricoides) 58 (15%) and Trichuris trichiura (T. trichiura) 13 (3.4%). Habit of eating soil (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 4.64, 95% CI: 1.50-14.36, P=0.008), presence of stagnant water near study participants’ house (AOR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.28-6.99, P=0.012) and habit of using human feces as a fertilizer (AOR= 5.34, 95% CI: 1.99-14.28, P<0.001) were found to be significantly associated with malaria and STH co-infection among the pregnant women. Hookworm parasitic load was positively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = 0.299, P<0.001) while A. lumbricoides parasitic load was negatively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = −0.095, P<0.001). Conclusion Intestinal parasite and/or malaria co-infection is a health problem among pregnant women living around Gilgel Gibe dam area. Therefore, intervention including improving sanitation, removing stagnant water, and health education to the pregnant women should be given. PMID:23837685

  20. Prevalence soil transmitted helminthiasis and malaria co-infection among pregnant women and risk factors in Gilgel Gibe Dam area, southwest Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getachew, Million; Tafess, Ketema; Zeynudin, Ahmed; Yewhalaw, Delenesaw

    2013-07-09

    Malaria and Soil Transmitted Helminthiasis (STH) are co-endemic and major public health problems in Ethiopia. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of malaria and STHs co-infection and to determine the association risk factors. A cross-sectional community based study was conducted on 388 pregnant women living in three districts around Gilgel Gibe Dam area, southwestern Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and socio-economic data, single stool sample and blood sample were collected from each participant. The prevalence of STH and malaria was 159 (41%) and 45 (11.6%), respectively and the prevalence of STHs/malaria co-infection was 30 (7.7%). Hookworm was the most prevalent 114 (29.4%) soil transmitted helminthiasis infection followed by Ascaris lumbricoides (A. lumbricoides) 58 (15%) and Trichuris trichiura (T. trichiura) 13 (3.4%). Habit of eating soil (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 4.64, 95% CI: 1.50-14.36, P=0.008), presence of stagnant water near study participants' house (AOR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.28-6.99, P=0.012) and habit of using human feces as a fertilizer (AOR= 5.34, 95% CI: 1.99-14.28, P<0.001) were found to be significantly associated with malaria and STH co-infection among the pregnant women. Hookworm parasitic load was positively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = 0.299, P<0.001) while A. lumbricoides parasitic load was negatively correlated with malaria parasitic load (r = -0.095, P<0.001). Intestinal parasite and/or malaria co-infection is a health problem among pregnant women living around Gilgel Gibe dam area. Therefore, intervention including improving sanitation, removing stagnant water, and health education to the pregnant women should be given.

  1. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  2. Equity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Robert W; Okiro, Emelda A; Gething, Peter W; Atun, Rifat; Hay, Simon I

    2010-10-23

    Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions. Populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax transmission were calculated for 2007 and 2009 for 93 malaria-endemic countries to measure biological need. National per-person gross domestic product (GDP) was used to define economic need. An analysis of external donor assistance for malaria control was done for the period 2002-09 to compute overall and annualised per-person at-risk-funding commitments. Annualised malaria donor assistance was compared with independent predictions of funding needed to reach international targets of 80% coverage of best practices in case-management and effective disease prevention. Countries were ranked in relation to biological, economic, and unmet needs to examine equity and adequacy of support by 2010. International financing for malaria control has increased by 166% (from $0·73 billion to $1·94 billion) since 2007 and is broadly consistent with biological needs. African countries have become major recipients of external assistance; however, countries where P vivax continues to pose threats to control ambitions are not as well funded. 21 countries have reached adequate assistance to provide a comprehensive suite of interventions by 2009, including 12 countries in Africa. However, this assistance was inadequate for 50 countries representing 61% of the worldwide population at risk of malaria-including ten countries in Africa and five in Asia that coincidentally are some of the poorest countries. Approval of donor funding for malaria control does not correlate with GDP. Funding for malaria control worldwide is 60% lower than the US$4·9 billion needed for comprehensive control in 2010; this includes

  3. MIGRATION AND MALARIA IN EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begoña Monge-Maillo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The proportion of imported malaria cases due to immigrants in Europe has increased during the lasts decades, being the higher rates for those settled immigrants who travel to visit friends and relatives (VFRs at their country of origin. Cases are mainly due to P. falciparum and Sub-Saharan Africa is the most common origin. Clinically, malaria in immigrants is characterized by a mild clinical presentation with even asymptomatic o delayed malaria cases and low parasitemic level. These characteristics may be explained by a semi-immunity acquired after long periods of time exposed to stable transmission of malaria. Malaria cases among immigrants, even those asymptomatic patients with sub-microscopic parasitemia, could increase the risk of transmission and reintroduction of malaria in certain areas with the adequate vectors and climate conditions. Moreover imported malaria cases by immigrants can also play an important role in the non-vectorial transmission out of endemic area, by blood transfusions, organ transplantation or congenital or occupational exposures. Probably, out of endemic areas, screening of malaria among recent arrived immigrants coming from malaria endemic countries should be performed. These aim to reduce the risk of clinical malaria in the individual as well as to prevent autochthonous transmission of malaria in areas where it had been eradicated.

  4. Mapping spatial patterns of people's risk perception of landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kofler, Christian; Pedoth, Lydia; Elzbieta Stawinoga, Agnieszka; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The resilience of communities against natural hazards is largely influenced by how the individuals perceive risk. A good understanding of people's risk perception, awareness and hazard knowledge is crucial for developing and improving risk management and communication strategies between authorities and the affected population. A lot of research has been done in investigating the social aspects of risks to natural hazards by means of interviews or questionnaires. However, there is still a lack of research in the investigation of the influence of the spatial distance to a hazard event on peoples risk perception. While the spatial dimension of a natural hazard event is always assessed in works with a natural science approach, it is often neglected in works on social aspects of natural hazards. In the present study, we aimed to overcome these gaps by combining methods from different disciplines and assessing and mapping the spatial pattern of risk perception through multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data from questionnaires. We will present results from a case study carried out in Badia, located in the Province of South Tyrol- Italy, where in December 2012 a landslide destroyed four residential buildings and led to the evacuation of 36 people. By means of questionnaires distributed to all adults living in the case study area we assessed people's risk perception and asked respondents to allocate their place of residence on a map of the case study area subdivided in 7 zones. Based on the data of the questionnaire results we developed a risk perception factor in order to express various assessed aspects linked to risk perception with one metric. We analyzed and mapped this factor according to the different zones reflecting the spatial distance to the event. Furthermore, a cluster analysis identified various risk behavior profiles within the population. We also investigated the spatial patterns of these risk profiles. We revealed that the residential

  5. New "Risk-Targeted" Seismic Maps Introduced into Building Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luco, Nicholas; Garrett, B.; Hayes, J.

    2012-01-01

    Throughout most municipalities of the United States, structural engineers design new buildings using the U.S.-focused International Building Code (IBC). Updated editions of the IBC are published every 3 years. The latest edition (2012) contains new "risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake" (MCER) ground motion maps, which are enabling engineers to incorporate a more consistent and better defined level of seismic safety into their building designs.

  6. Spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of malaria in the state of Acre, western Amazon, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Augusto Kohara Melchior

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005, the State of Acre, western Amazon, Brazil, has reported the highest annual parasite incidence (API of malaria among the Brazilian states. This study examines malaria incidence in Acre using spatial and spatio-temporal analysis based on an ecological time series study analyzing malaria cases and deaths for the time period 1992- 2014 and using secondary data. API indexes were calculated by age, sex, parasite species, ratio of Plasmodium vivax to P. falciparum malaria, malaria mortality rate and case fatality rate. SaTScan was used to detect spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of malaria cases and data were represented in the form of choropleth maps. A high-risk cluster of malaria was detected in Vale do Juruá and three low-risk clusters in Vale do Acre for both parasite species. Those younger than 19 years of age and females showed a high incidence of malaria in Vale do Juruá, but working-age males were the most affected in Vale do Acre. The malaria mortality rate showed a decreasing trend across the state, while the case fatality rate increased only in the micro-region of Rio Branco during the study period. We conclude that malaria is a focal disease in Acre showing different spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of cases and deaths that vary by age, sex, and parasite species. Malaria incidence is thought to be influenced by factors related to regional characteristics; therefore, appropriate disease and vector control strategies must be implemented at each locality.

  7. Development of erosion risk map using fuzzy logic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fauzi Manyuk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Erosion-hazard assessment is an important aspect in the management of a river basin such as Siak River Basin, Riau Province, Indonesia. This study presents an application of fuzzy logic approach to develop erosion risk map based on geographic information system. Fuzzy logic is a computing approach based on “degrees of truth” rather than the usual “true or false” (1 or 0 Boolean logic on which the modern computer is based. The results of the erosion risk map were verified by using field measurements. The verification result shows that the parameter of soil-erodibility (K indicates a good agreement with field measurement data. The classification of soil-erodibility (K as the result of validation were: very low (0.0–0.1, medium (0.21-0.32, high (0.44-0.55 and very high (0.56-0.64. The results obtained from this study show that the erosion risk map of Siak River Basin were dominantly classified as medium level which cover about 68.54%. The other classifications were high and very low erosion level which cover about 28.84% and 2.61% respectively.

  8. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joung-Hun Lee

    Full Text Available By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  9. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  10. Risk-maps informing land-use planning processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basta, Claudia [DIRC Sustainable Urban Areas, Section of Material Science and Sustainable Construction, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)]. E-mail: c.basta@citg.tudelft.nl; Neuvel, Jeroen M.M. [Land Use Planning, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Postbus 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)]. E-mail: jeroen.neuvel@wur.nl; Zlatanova, Sisi [Section GISt, OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 9, P.O. Box 5030, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)]. E-mail: s.zlatanova@otb.tudelft.nl; Ale, Ben [Safety Science Group, TBM Faculty, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)

    2007-06-25

    The definition of safety distances as required by Art 12 of the Seveso II Directive on dangerous substances (96/82/EC) is necessary to minimize the consequences of potential major accidents. As they affect the land-use destinations of involved areas, safety distances can be considered as risk tolerability criteria with a territorial reflection. Recent studies explored the suitability of using Geographical Information System technologies to support their elaboration and visual rendering. In particular, the elaboration of GIS 'risk-maps' has been recognized as functional to two objectives: connecting spatial planners and safety experts during decision making processes and communicating risk to non-experts audiences. In order to elaborate on these findings and to verify their reflection on European practices, the article presents the result of a comparative study between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands recent developments. Their land-use planning practices for areas falling under Seveso II requirements are explored. The role of GIS risk-maps within decisional processes is analyzed and the reflection on the transparency and accessibility of risk-information is commented. Recommendations for further developments are given.

  11. Risk-maps informing land-use planning processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basta, Claudia; Neuvel, Jeroen M.M.; Zlatanova, Sisi; Ale, Ben

    2007-01-01

    The definition of safety distances as required by Art 12 of the Seveso II Directive on dangerous substances (96/82/EC) is necessary to minimize the consequences of potential major accidents. As they affect the land-use destinations of involved areas, safety distances can be considered as risk tolerability criteria with a territorial reflection. Recent studies explored the suitability of using Geographical Information System technologies to support their elaboration and visual rendering. In particular, the elaboration of GIS 'risk-maps' has been recognized as functional to two objectives: connecting spatial planners and safety experts during decision making processes and communicating risk to non-experts audiences. In order to elaborate on these findings and to verify their reflection on European practices, the article presents the result of a comparative study between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands recent developments. Their land-use planning practices for areas falling under Seveso II requirements are explored. The role of GIS risk-maps within decisional processes is analyzed and the reflection on the transparency and accessibility of risk-information is commented. Recommendations for further developments are given

  12. Managing the total cost of risk exposures through risk mapping techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unione, A.J.; Rode, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    In a competitive power market, power producers are exposed to an increasingly broad spectrum of financial risks. The cumulative impact of these financial risks is known collectively as the Total of Cost of Risk. The concept of Total of Cost of Risk presents the business reality of a company's exposure to potentially devastating financial consequences in an integrated and useful way. In this way, a strategy of managing Total Cost of Risk in the most cost effective way can become a means of ensuring long term business health and security. This paper will examine the use of risk mapping as a tool for visually understanding Total Cost of Risk, thus creating an enhanced situational awareness and an integrated basis for risk management decision. The evaluation process, available through the use of risk maps allows the power producers to pro-actively implement prudent business decisions concerning the design, operation and maintenance of power plants. Risk mapping is thus a means for harmonizing operational objectives, such as improved plant reliability, with corporate strategies and goals in terms of an effective risk management program

  13. Malaria - sick air on the march

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aunan, Kristin

    1999-01-01

    The article surveys the expansion of the malaria risk zones with increasing temperatures, change in climate and habitat alterations. Factors such as the living conditions for various malaria parasites, climatic changes, immunity and drug resistance are studied. It is evident that the greenhouse effects contribute to the expanding malaria risk zones

  14. 2012 FEMA Risk Map Lidar: Merrimack River Watershed (Massachusetts, New Hampshire)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data are the lidar points collected for FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) for the Merrimack River Watershed. This area falls in portions...

  15. Haemoglobin changes and risk of anaemia following treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwang, Julien; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Ndiaye, Jean-Louis; Djimdé, Abdoulaye A; Dorsey, Grant; Mårtensson, Andreas A; Karema, Corine; Olliaro, Piero L

    2017-06-23

    Anaemia is common in malaria. It is important to quantitate the risk of anaemia and to distinguish factors related to the natural history of disease from potential drug toxicity. Individual-patient data analysis based on nine randomized controlled trials of treatments of uncomplicated falciparum malaria from 13 sub-Saharan African countries. Risk factors for reduced haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations and anaemia on presentation and after treatment were analysed using mixed effect models. Eight thousand eight hundred ninety-seven patients (77.0% <5 years-old) followed-up through 28 days treated with artemisinin combination therapy (ACT, 90%, n = 7968) or non-ACT. At baseline, under 5's had the highest risk of anaemia (77.6% vs. 32.8%) and higher parasitaemia (43,938 μl) than older subjects (2784 μl). Baseline anaemia increased the risk of parasitological recurrence. Hb began to fall after treatment start. In under 5's the estimated nadir was ~35 h (range 29-48), with a drop of -12.8% from baseline (from 9.8 g/dl to 8.7 g/dl, p = 0.001); in under 15's, the mean Hb decline between day 0-3 was -4.7% (from 9.4 to 9.0 g/dl, p = 0.001). The degree of Hb loss was greater in patients with high pre-treatment Hb and parasitaemia and with slower parasite reduction rates, and was unrelated to age. Subsequently, Hb increased linearly (+0.6%/day) until day 28, to reach +13.8% compared to baseline. Severe anaemia (<5 g/dl, 2 per 1000 patients) was transient and all patients recovered after day 14, except one case of very severe anaemia associated with parasite recurrence at day 28. There was no systematic difference in Hb concentrations between treatments and no case of delayed anaemia. On presentation with acute malaria young children with high parasitaemia have the highest risk of anaemia. The majority of patients experience a drop in Hb while on treatment as early as day 1-2, followed by a linear increase through follow-up. The degree of the early Hb dip is

  16. HIV, malaria, and infant anemia as risk factors for postneonatal infant mortality among HIV-seropositive women in Kisumu, Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijk, Anna M.; Ayisi, John G.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Slutsker, Laurence; Shi, Ya Ping; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam; Otieno, Juliana A.; Kager, Piet A.; Lal, Renu B.; Steketee, Richard W.; Nahlen, Bernard L.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: HIV and malaria in sub-Saharan Africa are associated with poor pregnancy outcome and infant survival. We studied the association of placental malaria, infant malaria and anemia, and infant HIV status with postneonatal infant mortality (PNIM) among infants of HIV-seropositive women.

  17. A multicriteria framework for producing local, regional, and national insect and disease risk maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank J. Jr. Krist; Frank J. Sapio

    2010-01-01

    The construction of the 2006 National Insect and Disease Risk Map, compiled by the USDA Forest Service, State and Private Forestry Area, Forest Health Protection Unit, resulted in the development of a GIS-based, multicriteria approach for insect and disease risk mapping that can account for regional variations in forest health concerns and threats. This risk mapping...

  18. Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.D. Magarey; D.M. Borchert; J.S. Engle; M Garcia-Colunga; Frank H. Koch; et al

    2011-01-01

    In the United States, pest risk maps are used by the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey for spatial and temporal targeting of exotic plant pest detection programs. Methods are described to create standardized host distribution, climate and pathway risk maps for the top nationally ranked exotic pest targets. Two examples are provided to illustrate the risk mapping...

  19. Malaria Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... with facebook share with twitter share with linkedin Malaria Go to Information for Researchers ► Credit: NIAID Colorized ... for the disease. Why Is the Study of Malaria a Priority for NIAID? Roughly 3.2 billion ...

  20. Funding for malaria control 2006–2010: A comprehensive global assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pigott David M

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic funding for malaria control, coupled with important declines in malaria incidence and mortality in some regions of the world. As the ongoing climate of financial uncertainty places strains on investment in global health, there is an increasing need to audit the origin, recipients and geographical distribution of funding for malaria control relative to populations at risk of the disease. Methods A comprehensive review of malaria control funding from international donors, bilateral sources and national governments was undertaken to reconstruct total funding by country for each year 2006 to 2010. Regions at risk from Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax transmission were identified using global risk maps for 2010 and funding was assessed relative to populations at risk. Those nations with unequal funding relative to a regional average were identified and potential explanations highlighted, such as differences in national policies, government inaction or donor neglect. Results US$8.9 billion was disbursed for malaria control and elimination programmes over the study period. Africa had the largest levels of funding per capita-at-risk, with most nations supported primarily by international aid. Countries of the Americas, in contrast, were supported typically through national government funding. Disbursements and government funding in Asia were far lower with a large variation in funding patterns. Nations with relatively high and low levels of funding are discussed. Conclusions Global funding for malaria control is substantially less than required. Inequity in funding is pronounced in some regions particularly when considering the distinct goals of malaria control and malaria elimination. Efforts to sustain and increase international investment in malaria control should be informed by evidence-based assessment of funding equity.

  1. Individual-level factors associated with the risk of acquiring human Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Malaysia: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigg, Matthew J; Cox, Jonathan; William, Timothy; Jelip, Jenarun; Fornace, Kimberly M; Brock, Patrick M; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Barber, Bridget E; Anstey, Nicholas M; Yeo, Tsin W; Drakeley, Christopher J

    2017-06-09

    The emergence of human malaria due to the monkey parasite Plasmodium knowlesi threatens elimination efforts in southeast Asia. Changes in land use are thought to be driving the rise in reported P knowlesi cases, but the role of individual-level factors is unclear. To address this knowledge gap we assessed human and environmental factors associated with zoonotic knowlesi malaria risk. We did this population-based case-control study over a 2 year period in the state of Sabah in Malaysia. We enrolled cases with microscopy-positive, PCR-confirmed malaria who presented to two primary referral hospitals serving the adjacent districts of Kudat and Kota Marudu. We randomly selected three malaria-negative community controls per case, who were matched by village within 2 weeks of case detection. We obtained questionnaire data on demographics, behaviour, and residential malaria risk factors, and we also assessed glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) enzyme activity. We used conditional logistic regression models to evaluate exposure risk between P knowlesi cases and controls, and between P knowlesi and human-only Plasmodium spp malaria cases. From Dec 5, 2012, to Jan 30, 2015, we screened 414 patients and subsequently enrolled 229 cases with P knowlesi malaria mono-infection and 91 cases with other Plasmodium spp infection. We enrolled 953 matched controls, including 683 matched to P knowlesi cases and 270 matched to non- P knowlesi cases. Age 15 years or older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4·16, 95% CI 2·09-8·29, pwork (3·50, CI, 1·34-9·15, p=0·011), sleeping outside (3·61, 1·48-8·85, p=0·0049), travel (2·48, 1·45-4·23, p=0·0010), being aware of the presence of monkeys in the past 4 weeks (3·35, 1·91-5·88, pworking in agricultural areas were at highest risk of knowlesi malaria, although peri-domestic transmission also occurrs. Human behavioural factors associated with P knowlesi transmission could be targeted in future public health interventions. United

  2. Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Hay, Simon I

    2010-04-01

    Risk maps estimating the spatial distribution of infectious diseases are required to guide public health policy from local to global scales. The advent of model-based geostatistics (MBG) has allowed these maps to be generated in a formal statistical framework, providing robust metrics of map uncertainty that enhances their utility for decision-makers. In many settings, decision-makers require spatially aggregated measures over large regions such as the mean prevalence within a country or administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches provide suitable metrics of local uncertainty--the fidelity of predictions at each mapped pixel--but have not been adapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authors present a new efficient approximating algorithm that can generate for the first time the necessary joint simulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implemented in conjunction with an established model for P. falciparum allowing robust estimates of mean prevalence at any specified level of spatial aggregation. The model is used to provide estimates of national populations at risk under three policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.

  3. Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

    2017-12-01

    The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

  4. Antibody levels against GLURP R2, MSP1 block 2 hybrid and AS202.11 and the risk of malaria in children living in hyperendemic (Burkina Faso) and hypo-endemic (Ghana) areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adu, Bright; Cherif, Mariama K; Bosomprah, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    therefore need to be evaluated against different malaria endemicity backgrounds. METHODS: The associations between antibody responses to the chimeric merozoite surface protein 1 block 2 hybrid (MSP1 hybrid), glutamate-rich protein region 2 (GLURP R2) and the peptide AS202.11, and the risk of malaria were...

  5. High prevalence of malaria in Zambezia, Mozambique: the protective effect of IRS versus increased risks due to pig-keeping and house construction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel A Temu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: African countries are scaling up malaria interventions, especially insecticide treated nets (ITN and indoor residual spraying (IRS, for which ambitious coverage targets have been set. In spite of these efforts infection prevalence remains high in many parts of the continent. This study investigated risk factors for malaria infection in children using three malaria indicator surveys from Zambezia province, Mozambique. The impact of IRS and ITNs, the effects of keeping farm animals and of the construction material of roofs of houses and other potential risk factors associated with malaria infection in children were assessed. METHODS: Cross-sectional community-based surveys were conducted in October of 2006, 2007 and 2008. A total of 8338 children (ages 1-15 years from 2748 households were included in the study. All children were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic tests. Caregiver interviews were used to assess household demographic and wealth characteristics and ITN and IRS coverage. Associations between malaria infection, vector control interventions and potential risk factors were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, the prevalence of malaria infection was 47.8% (95%CI: 38.7%-57.1% in children 1-15 years of age, less than a quarter of children (23.1%, 95%CI: 19.1%-27.6% were sleeping under ITN and almost two thirds were living in IRS treated houses (coverage 65.4%, 95%CI: 51.5%-77.0%. Protective factors that were independently associated with malaria infection were: sleeping in an IRS house without sleeping under ITN (Odds Ratio (OR= 0.6; 95%CI: 0.4-0.9; additional protection due to sleeping under ITN in an IRS treated house (OR = 0.5; 95%CI: 0.3-0.7 versus sleeping in an unsprayed house without a ITN; and parental education (primary/secondary: OR = 0.6; 95%CI: 0.5-0.7 versus parents with no education. Increased risk of infection was associated with: current fever (OR = 1.2; 95%CI: 1.0-1.5 versus no fever; pig keeping (OR

  6. An analysis of timing and frequency of malaria infection during pregnancy in relation to the risk of low birth weight, anaemia and perinatal mortality in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valea Innocent

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A prospective study aiming at assessing the effect of adding a third dose sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP to the standard two-dose intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women was carried out in Hounde, Burkina Faso, between March 2006 and July 2008. Pregnant women were identified as earlier as possible during pregnancy through a network of home visitors, referred to the health facilities for inclusion and followed up until delivery. Methods Study participants were enrolled at antenatal care (ANC visits and randomized to receive either two or three doses of SP at the appropriate time. Women were visited daily and a blood slide was collected when there was fever (body temperature > 37.5°C or history of fever. Women were encouraged to attend ANC and deliver in the health centre, where the new-born was examined and weighed. The timing and frequency of malaria infection was analysed in relation to the risk of low birth weight, maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality. Results Data on birth weight and haemoglobin were available for 1,034 women. The incidence of malaria infections was significantly lower in women having received three instead of two doses of SP. Occurrence of first malaria infection during the first or second trimester was associated with a higher risk of low birth weight: incidence rate ratios of 3.56 (p p = 0.034, respectively. After adjusting for possible confounding factors, the risk remained significantly higher for the infection in the first trimester of pregnancy (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.07, p = 0.002. The risk of maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality was not associated with the timing of first malaria infection. Conclusion Malaria infection during first trimester of pregnancy is associated to a higher risk of low birth weight. Women should be encouraged to use long-lasting insecticidal nets before and throughout their pregnancy.

  7. Spatial association between malaria pandemic and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B M Dansu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Malaria pandemic (MP has been linked to a range of serious health problems including premature mortality. The main objective of this research is to quantify uncertainties about impacts of malaria on mortality. A multivariate spatial regression model was developed for estimation of the risk of mortality associated with malaria across Ogun State in Nigeria, West Africa. We characterize different local governments in the data and model the spatial structure of the mortality data in infants and pregnant women. A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model was considered for a space-time series of counts (mortality by constructing a likelihood-based version of a generalized Poisson regression model that combines methods for point-level misaligned data and change of support regression. A simple two-stage procedure for producing maps of predicted risk is described. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine an approximate risk on a larger scale, and geo-statistical ("Kriging" approaches were used to improve prediction at a local level. The results suggest improvement of risk prediction brought about in the second stage. The advantages and shortcomings of this approach highlight the need for further development of a better analytical methodology.

  8. Cancer Risk Map for the Surface of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    We discuss calculations of the median and 95th percentile cancer risks on the surface of Mars for different solar conditions. The NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model is used to estimate gender and age specific cancer incidence and mortality risks for astronauts exploring Mars. Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code, and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. In the transport of particles through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution is implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each elevation on Mars. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Astronaut cancer risks are mapped on the global topography of Mars, which was measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. Variation of cancer risk on the surface of Mars is due to a 16-km elevation range, and the large difference is obtained between the Tharsis Montes (Ascraeus, Pavonis, and Arsia) and the Hellas impact basin. Cancer incidence risks are found to be about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for all astronauts and breast cancer risk for female astronauts. The number of safe days on Mars to be below radiation limits at the 95th percent confidence level is reported for several Mission design scenarios.

  9. Dehydration and malaria augment the risk of developing chronic kidney disease in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. R. I. E. Siriwardhana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic kidney disease (CKD of unknown etiology (CKDu is a serious health issue in Sri Lanka. One-to-one age and sex-matched two sample comparative study was carried out in the Medawachchiya divisional secretariat area of the North Central Province (NCP of Sri Lanka, by randomly selecting 100 CKDu patients and 100 age and sex-matched subjects from non-CKDu affected families from the same area. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used for the collection of data pertaining to occupation, medical history and lifestyle. Data were analyzed using a conditional linear logistic model. Working for >6 h in the field per day, exposure to sun, drinking water only from well, consumption of <3 L of water per day, and having a history of malaria were found to be having significant (P < 0.05 likelihood toward the development of CKDu. Treatment of water prior to consumption had a significant protective effect against CKDu. Dehydration, history of malaria and drinking untreated well water from are likely contribute to the development of CKD of unknown etiology among the inhabitants of NCP, Sri Lanka.

  10. An analysis of timing and frequency of malaria infection during pregnancy in relation to the risk of low birth weight, anaemia and perinatal mortality in Burkina Faso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valea, Innocent; Tinto, Halidou; Drabo, Maxime K; Huybregts, Lieven; Sorgho, Hermann; Ouedraogo, Jean-Bosco; Guiguemde, Robert T; van Geertruyden, Jean Pierre; Kolsteren, Patrick; D'Alessandro, Umberto

    2012-03-16

    A prospective study aiming at assessing the effect of adding a third dose sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) to the standard two-dose intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women was carried out in Hounde, Burkina Faso, between March 2006 and July 2008. Pregnant women were identified as earlier as possible during pregnancy through a network of home visitors, referred to the health facilities for inclusion and followed up until delivery. Study participants were enrolled at antenatal care (ANC) visits and randomized to receive either two or three doses of SP at the appropriate time. Women were visited daily and a blood slide was collected when there was fever (body temperature > 37.5°C) or history of fever. Women were encouraged to attend ANC and deliver in the health centre, where the new-born was examined and weighed. The timing and frequency of malaria infection was analysed in relation to the risk of low birth weight, maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality. Data on birth weight and haemoglobin were available for 1,034 women. The incidence of malaria infections was significantly lower in women having received three instead of two doses of SP. Occurrence of first malaria infection during the first or second trimester was associated with a higher risk of low birth weight: incidence rate ratios of 3.56 (p pregnancy (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.07, p = 0.002). The risk of maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality was not associated with the timing of first malaria infection. Malaria infection during first trimester of pregnancy is associated to a higher risk of low birth weight. Women should be encouraged to use long-lasting insecticidal nets before and throughout their pregnancy.

  11. Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabaria Caroline W

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately. Methods First, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database. Results Masks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed

  12. morphological identification of malaria vectors within anopheles

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMIN

    Africa among the human population. Determination of risk of malaria transmission requires quick and accurate methods of identification of Anopheles mosquitoes especially when targeting vector control. (Maxwell, et al., 2003). Anopheles mosquito transmits malaria. The most important vectors of malaria are members of.

  13. Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-07-14

    Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease

  14. Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-02-01

    Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

  16. Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2017-04-01

    Time and again, floods around the world illustrate the devastating impact they can have on societies. Furthermore, the expectation that the flood damages can increase over time with climate, land-use change and social growth in flood prone-areas has raised the public and other stakeholders' (governments, international organization, re-insurance companies and emergency responders) awareness for the need to manage risks in order to mitigate their causes and consequences. In this light, the choice of appropriate measures, the assessment of the costs and effects of such measures, and their prioritization are crucial for decision makers. As a result, a priori flood risk assessment has become a key part of flood management practices with the aim of minimizing the total costs related to the risk management cycle. In this context, The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the delineation of flood risk maps on the bases of most appropriate and advanced tools, with particular attention on limiting required economic efforts. The main aim of these risk maps is to provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs) by considering both costs and benefits of alternatives and results from consultation with all interested parties. In this context, this research project developed a free and open-source (FOSS) GIS software, called FloodRisk, to operatively support stakeholders in their compliance with the FRMPs. FloodRisk aims to facilitate the development of risk maps and the evaluation and management of current and future flood risk for multi-purpose applications. This new approach overcomes the limits of the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, which does not permit a suitable evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies, because the vulnerability component cannot be properly assessed. Moreover, FloodRisk is also able to involve the citizens in the flood

  17. Dehydration and malaria augment the risk of developing chronic kidney disease in Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siriwardhana, E A R I E; Perera, P A J; Sivakanesan, R; Abeysekara, T; Nugegoda, D B; Jayaweera, J A A S

    2015-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown etiology (CKDu) is a serious health issue in Sri Lanka. One-to-one age and sex-matched two sample comparative study was carried out in the Medawachchiya divisional secretariat area of the North Central Province (NCP) of Sri Lanka, by randomly selecting 100 CKDu patients and 100 age and sex-matched subjects from non-CKDu affected families from the same area. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used for the collection of data pertaining to occupation, medical history and lifestyle. Data were analyzed using a conditional linear logistic model. Working for >6 h in the field per day, exposure to sun, drinking water only from well, consumption of CKDu. Treatment of water prior to consumption had a significant protective effect against CKDu. Dehydration, history of malaria and drinking untreated well water from are likely contribute to the development of CKD of unknown etiology among the inhabitants of NCP, Sri Lanka.

  18. Malaria in pregnancy: ultrasound studies of fetal growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Malaria has been a plague for human mankind. Each year roughly 125 million pregnancies are at risk for malaria infection. This thesis demonstrates the detrimental effects of malaria in pregnancy on the mother and the baby. To determine the effects of malaria in pregnancy on birth outcomes, accurate

  19. The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine: a new century of malaria research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riley Eleanor M

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The global malaria situation has scarcely improved in the last 100 years, despite major advances in our knowledge of the basic biology, epidemiology and clinical basis of the disease. Effective malaria control, leading to a significant decrease in the morbidity and mortality attributable to malaria, will require a multidisciplinary approach. New tools - drugs, vaccine and insecticides - are needed but there is also much to be gained by better use of existing tools: using drugs in combination in order to slow the development of drug resistance; targeting resources to areas of greatest need; using geographic information systems to map the populations at risk and more sophisticated marketing techniques to distribute bed nets and insecticides. Sustainable malaria control may require the deployment of a highly effective vaccine, but there is much that can be done in the meantime to reduce the burden of disease.

  20. Large-scale drivers of malaria and priority areas for prevention and control in the Brazilian Amazon region using a novel multi-pathogen geospatial model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Denis; Lima, Joanna M Tucker

    2014-11-20

    Most of the malaria burden in the Americas is concentrated in the Brazilian Amazon but a detailed spatial characterization of malaria risk has yet to be undertaken. Utilizing 2004-2008 malaria incidence data collected from six Brazilian Amazon states, large-scale spatial patterns of malaria risk were characterized with a novel Bayesian multi-pathogen geospatial model. Data included 2.4 million malaria cases spread across 3.6 million sq km. Remotely sensed variables (deforestation rate, forest cover, rainfall, dry season length, and proximity to large water bodies), socio-economic variables (rural population size, income, and literacy rate, mortality rate for children age under five, and migration patterns), and GIS variables (proximity to roads, hydro-electric dams and gold mining operations) were incorporated as covariates. Borrowing information across pathogens allowed for better spatial predictions of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, as evidenced by a ten-fold cross-validation. Malaria incidence for both Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum tended to be higher in areas with greater forest cover. Proximity to gold mining operations was another important risk factor, corroborated by a positive association between migration rates and malaria incidence. Finally, areas with a longer dry season and areas with higher average rural income tended to have higher malaria risk. Risk maps reveal striking spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk across the region, yet these mean disease risk surface maps can be misleading if uncertainty is ignored. By combining mean spatial predictions with their associated uncertainty, several sites were consistently classified as hotspots, suggesting their importance as priority areas for malaria prevention and control. This article provides several contributions. From a methodological perspective, the benefits of jointly modelling multiple pathogens for spatial predictions were illustrated. In addition, maps of mean disease risk were

  1. The influence of uncertain map features on risk beliefs and perceived ambiguity for maps of modeled cancer risk from air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Jeffrey D.

    2012-01-01

    Maps are often used to convey information generated by models, for example, modeled cancer risk from air pollution. The concrete nature of images, such as maps, may convey more certainty than warranted for modeled information. Three map features were selected to communicate the uncertainty of modeled cancer risk: (a) map contours appeared in or out of focus, (b) one or three colors were used, and (c) a verbal-relative or numeric risk expression was used in the legend. Study aims were to assess how these features influenced risk beliefs and the ambiguity of risk beliefs at four assigned map locations that varied by risk level. We applied an integrated conceptual framework to conduct this full factorial experiment with 32 maps that varied by the three dichotomous features and four risk levels; 826 university students participated. Data was analyzed using structural equation modeling. Unfocused contours and the verbal-relative risk expression generated more ambiguity than their counterparts. Focused contours generated stronger risk beliefs for higher risk levels and weaker beliefs for lower risk levels. Number of colors had minimal influence. The magnitude of risk level, conveyed using incrementally darker shading, had a substantial dose-response influence on the strength of risk beliefs. Personal characteristics of prior beliefs and numeracy also had substantial influences. Bottom-up and top-down information processing suggest why iconic visual features of incremental shading and contour focus had the strongest visual influences on risk beliefs and ambiguity. Variations in contour focus and risk expression show promise for fostering appropriate levels of ambiguity. PMID:22985196

  2. Update of the volcanic risk map of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nuñez Cornu, F. J.; Marquez-Azua, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Colima volcano, located in western Mexico (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W) began its current eruptive process in February 10, 1999. This event was the basis for the development of two volcanic hazard maps: one for ballistics (rock fall) lahars, and another one for ash fall. During the period of 2003 to 2008 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-Plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano thanks to the low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time The current volcanic activity has triggered ballistic projections, pyroclastic and ash flows, and lahars, all have exceeded the maps limits established in 1999. Vulnerable elements within these areas have gradually changed due to the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano. On the slopes of the northwest side, new blue agave Tequilana weber and avocado orchard crops have emerged along with important production of greenhouse tomato, alfalfa and fruit (citrus) crops that will eventually be processed and dried for exportation to the United States and Europe. Also, in addition to the above, large expanses of corn and sugar cane have been planted on the slopes of the volcano since the nineteenth century. The increased agricultural activity has had a direct impact in the reduction of the available forest land area. Coinciding with this increased activity, the 0.8% growth population during the period of 2000 - 2005, - due to the construction of the Guadalajara-Colima highway-, also increased this impact. The growth in vulnerability changed the level of risk with respect to the one identified in the year 1999 (Suarez, 2000), thus motivating us to perform an update to the risk map at 1:25,000 using vector models of the INEGI, SPOT images of different dates, and fieldwork done in order

  3. Spatial heterogeneity of malaria in Indian reserves of Southwestern Amazonia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos Ricardo

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria constitutes a major cause of morbidity in the Brazilian Amazon where an estimated 6 million people are considered at high risk of transmission. Indigenous peoples in the Amazon are particularly vulnerable to potentially epidemic disease such as malaria; notwithstanding, very little is known about the epidemiology of malaria in Indian reservations of the region. The aim of this paper is to present a spatial analysis of malaria cases over a four-year time period (2003–2006 among indigenous peoples of the Brazilian State of Rondônia, southwestern Amazon, by using passive morbidity data (results from Giemsa-stained thick blood smears gathered from the National Malaria Epidemiologic Surveillance System databank. Results A total of 4,160 cases of malaria were recorded in 14 Indian reserves in the State of Rondônia between 2003 and 2006. In six reservations no cases of malaria were reported in the period. Overall, P. vivax accounted for 76.18 of malaria cases reported in the indigenous population of Rondônia. The P. vivax/P. falciparum ratio for the period was 3.78. Two reserves accounted for over half of the cases reported for the total indigenous population in the period – Roosevelt and Pacaas Novas – with a total of 1,646 (39.57% and 1,145 (27.52% cases, respectively. Kernel mapping of malaria mean Annual Parasite Index – API according to indigenous reserves and environmental zones revealed a heterogeneous pattern of disease distribution, with one clear area of high risk of transmission comprising reservations of west Rondônia along the Guaporé-Madeira River basins, and another high risk area to the east, on the Roosevelt reserve. Conclusion By means of kernel mapping, it was shown that malaria risk varies widely between Indian reserves and environmental zones defined on the basis of predominant ecologic characteristics and land use patterns observed in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon. The geographical

  4. Spatial distribution of malaria in Peninsular Malaysia from 2000 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alias, Haridah; Surin, Johari; Mahmud, Rohela; Shafie, Aziz; Mohd Zin, Junaidden; Mohamad Nor, Mahadzir; Ibrahim, Ahmad Shah; Rundi, Christina

    2014-04-15

    Malaria is still an endemic disease of public health importance in Malaysia. Populations at risk of contracting malaria includes indigenous people, traditional villagers, mobile ethnic groups and land scheme settlers, immigrants from malaria endemic countries as well as jungle workers and loggers. The predominant species are Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. An increasing number of P. knowlesi infections have also been encountered. The principal vectors in Peninsular Malaysia are Anopheles maculatus and An. cracens. This study aims to determine the changes in spatial distribution of malaria in Peninsular Malaysia from year 2000-2009. Data for the study was collected from Ministry of Health, Malaysia and was analysed using Geographic Information System (GIS). Changes for a period of 10 years of malaria spatial distribution in 12 states of Peninsular Malaysia were documented and discussed. This is illustrated by digital mapping according to five variables; incidence rate (IR), fatality rate (FR), annual blood examination rate (ABER), annual parasite index (API) and slide positivity rate (SPR). There is a profound change in the spatial distribution of malaria within a 10-year period. This is evident from the digital mapping of the infection in Peninsular Malaysia.

  5. Mapping risk of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Quan; Zhao, Jian; Fang, Liqun; Zhou, Hang; Zhang, Wenyi; Wei, Lan; Yang, Hong; Yin, Wenwu; Cao, Wuchun; Li, Qun

    2014-07-10

    Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through surveillance may not always be feasible and infrequent clinical cases may be misdiagnosed. Based on plague surveillance data and environmental variables, Maxent was applied to model the presence probability of plague host. 75% occurrence points were randomly selected for training model, and the rest 25% points were used for model test and validation. Maxent model performance was measured as test gain and test AUC. The optimal probability cut-off value was chosen by maximizing training sensitivity and specificity simultaneously. We used field surveillance data in an ecological niche modeling (ENM) framework to depict spatial distribution of natural foci of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Most human-inhabited areas at risk of exposure to enzootic plague are distributed in the east and south of the Plateau. Elevation, temperature of land surface and normalized difference vegetation index play a large part in determining the distribution of the enzootic plague. This study provided a more detailed view of spatial pattern of enzootic plague and human-inhabited areas at risk of plague. The maps could help public health authorities decide where to perform plague surveillance and take preventive measures in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

  6. Integrated urban malaria control: a case study in dar es salaam, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldas de Castro, Marcia; Yamagata, Yoichi; Mtasiwa, Deo; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jurg; Keiser, Jennifer; Singer, Burton H

    2004-08-01

    The rapid growth of cities in sub-Saharan Africa, much of it driven by rural-urban migration, is associated with complex transformations of these ecosystems and an intricate set of challenges for malaria control. Urban malaria transmission is substantially less intense and much more focal than in rural and peri-urban settings. However, the danger of epidemics is higher and the presence of substantial non-immune populations places people of all ages at comparable levels of risk. The limited number of breeding sites in urban centers suggests that prevention strategies based on vector control, with emphasis on environmental management, should be a central feature of urban malaria control programs. We focus on malaria in the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Following a brief review of the 100-year history of malaria control in this urban center, we describe and evaluate a control program that operated from 1988 to 1996 as a consequence of a bilateral agreement between the governments of Tanzania and Japan. We present an innovative urban malaria risk mapping methodology based on high-resolution aerial photography with ground-based validation. This strategy clarifies that remote sensing technology at a level of resolution of one meter is essential if this kind of information is to play a role in guiding the detailed specification of intervention strategies for urban malaria control. The Tanzania-Japan multiple-intervention malaria control program, adaptively implemented over time, is described and evaluated with implications for urban malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa more generally. Copyright 2004 The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

  7. Matching methods to produce maps for pest risk analysis to resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Baker

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision support systems (DSSs for pest risk mapping are invaluable for guiding pest risk analysts seeking to add maps to pest risk analyses (PRAs. Maps can help identify the area of potential establishment, the area at highest risk and the endangered area for alien plant pests. However, the production of detailed pest risk maps may require considerable time and resources and it is important to match the methods employed to the priority, time and detail required. In this paper, we apply PRATIQUE DSSs to Phytophthora austrocedrae, a pathogen of the Cupressaceae, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, the pine processionary moth, Drosophila suzukii, spotted wing Drosophila, and Thaumatotibia leucotreta, the false codling moth. We demonstrate that complex pest risk maps are not always a high priority and suggest that simple methods may be used to determine the geographic variation in relative risks posed by invasive alien species within an area of concern.

  8. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark J. Ducey; Robert A. Haack; Marty Siltanen; Kirsty Wilson

    2013-01-01

    Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique...

  9. Amplified fragment length polymorphism mapping of quantitative trait loci for malaria parasite susceptibility in the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Daibin; Menge, David M; Temu, Emmanuel A; Chen, Hong; Yan, Guiyun

    2006-07-01

    The yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti has been the subject of extensive genetic research due to its medical importance and the ease with which it can be manipulated in the laboratory. A molecular genetic linkage map was constructed using 148 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and six single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) markers. Eighteen AFLP primer combinations were used to genotype two reciprocal F2 segregating populations. Each primer combination generated an average of 8.2 AFLP markers eligible for linkage mapping. The length of the integrated map was 180.9 cM, giving an average marker resolution of 1.2 cM. Composite interval mapping revealed a total of six QTL significantly affecting Plasmodium susceptibility in the two reciprocal crosses of Ae. aegypti. Two common QTL on linkage group 2 were identified in both crosses that had similar effects on the phenotype, and four QTL were unique to each cross. In one cross, the four main QTL accounted for 64% of the total phenotypic variance, and digenic epistasis explained 11.8% of the variance. In the second cross, the four main QTL explained 66% of the variance, and digenic epistasis accounted for 16% of the variance. The actions of these QTL were either dominance or underdominance. Our results indicated that at least three new QTL were mapped on chromosomes 1 and 3. The polygenic nature of susceptibility to P. gallinaceum and epistasis are important factors for significant variation within or among mosquito strains. The new map provides additional information useful for further genetic investigation, such as identification of new genes and positional cloning.

  10. Malaria cerebral Cerebral malaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Hugo Zapata Zapata

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available La malaria Cerebral (MC es la complicación más frecuente de la malaria por P. falciparum; aproximadamente el 90% de las personas que la han padecido se recuperan completamente sin secuelas neurológicas. Aún no se conoce con claridad su patogénesis pero se han postulado cuatro hipótesis o mecanismos posibles: 1 citoadherencia y secuestro de glóbulos rojos parasitados en la microvasculatura cerebral; 2 formación de rosetas y aglutinación de glóbulos rojos parasitados; 3 producción de citoquinas y activación de segundos mensajeros y, 4 apertura de la barrera hematoencefálica. Sin embargo, queda un interrogante sin resolver aún: ¿qué proceso se lleva a cabo para que el parásito, desde el espacio microvascular, pueda interferir transitoriamente con la función cerebral? Recientemente se ha utilizado el precursor de la proteína b-Amiloide como un marcador de daño neuronal en MC; este precursor será de gran ayuda en futuras investigaciones realizadas en nuestro medio que aporten información para comprender la patogénesis de la MC. Is the most common complication of P. falciparum malaria; nearly 90% of people who have suffered CM can recover without neurological problems. Currently there are four hypotheses that explain pathogenesis of CM: cytoadherence and sequestering of parasitized red blood cells to cerebral capillaries; rosette formation and parasitized red blood cells agglutination; production of cytokines and activation of second messengers and opening of the blood-brain barrier. However the main question remains to be answered; how the host-parasite interaction in the vascular space interferes transiently with cerebral function? Recently, the beta amyloid precursor peptide has been employed as marker of neural injury in CM. It is expected that the beta amyloid precursor peptide will help to understand the pathogenesis of CM in complicated patients of endemic areas of Colombia.

  11. Malaria entomological risk factors in relation to land cover in the Lower Caura River Basin, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio-Palis, Yasmin; Bevilacqua, Mariapia; Medina, Domingo Alberto; Moreno, Jorge Ernesto; Cárdenas, Lya; Sánchez, Víctor; Estrada, Yarys; Anaya, William; Martínez, Ángela

    2013-01-01

    To explore the effects of deforestation and resulting differences in vegetation and land cover on entomological parameters, such as anopheline species composition, abundance, biting rate, parity and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), three villages were selected in the Lower Caura River Basin, state of Bolívar, Venezuela. All-night mosquito collections were conducted between March 2008-January 2009 using CDC light traps and Mosquito Magnet(r) Liberty Plus. Human landing catches were performed between 06:00 pm-10:00 pm, when anophelines were most active. Four types of vegetation were identified. The Annual Parasite Index was not correlated with the type of vegetation. The least abundantly forested village had the highest anopheline abundance, biting rate and species diversity. Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari were the most abundant species and were collected in all three villages. Both species showed unique biting cycles. The more abundantly forested village of El Palmar reported the highest EIR. The results confirmed previous observations that the impacts of deforestation and resulting changes in vegetation cover on malaria transmission are complex and vary locally. PMID:23579803

  12. Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemeier-Klose, M.; Wagner, K.

    2009-04-01

    Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey. The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths) which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

  13. Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainz-Elipe, Sandra; Latorre, Jose Manuel; Escosa, Raul; Masià, Montserrat; Fuentes, Marius Vicent; Mas-Coma, Santiago; Bargues, Maria Dolores

    2010-07-31

    International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour

  14. Multisensor earth observations to characterize wetlands and malaria epidemiology in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midekisa, Alemayehu; Senay, Gabriel; Wimberly, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is a major global public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The spatial heterogeneity of malaria can be affected by factors such as hydrological processes, physiography, and land cover patterns. Tropical wetlands, for example, are important hydrological features that can serve as mosquito breeding habitats. Mapping and monitoring of wetlands using satellite remote sensing can thus help to target interventions aimed at reducing malaria transmission. The objective of this study was to map wetlands and other major land cover types in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and to analyze district-level associations of malaria and wetlands across the region. We evaluated three random forests classification models using remotely sensed topographic and spectral data based on Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery, respectively. The model that integrated data from both sensors yielded more accurate land cover classification than single-sensor models. The resulting map of wetlands and other major land cover classes had an overall accuracy of 93.5%. Topographic indices and subpixel level fractional cover indices contributed most strongly to the land cover classification. Further, we found strong spatial associations of percent area of wetlands with malaria cases at the district level across the dry, wet, and fall seasons. Overall, our study provided the most extensive map of wetlands for the Amhara region and documented spatiotemporal associations of wetlands and malaria risk at a broad regional level. These findings can assist public health personnel in developing strategies to effectively control and eliminate malaria in the region.

  15. Malaria Matters

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2008-04-18

    This podcast gives an overview of malaria, including prevention and treatment, and what CDC is doing to help control and prevent malaria globally.  Created: 4/18/2008 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 4/18/2008.

  16. [Current malaria situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bismil'din, F B; Shapieva, Zh Zh; Anpilova, E N

    2001-01-01

    risk (Aktyubinsk and Akmolinsk oblasts), and low risk (Kostanay oblast). The malaria risk of the other oblasts has been calculated using data from earlier years (map attached) [Translator's Note: map missing]. Preventive malaria control measures in Kazakhstan are divided into three categories to suit three different groups of communities. One hundred and seventy-nine communities have been allocated to the first group, at high risk of malaria resurgence; 1377 communities to the second group, at medium risk; and the remainder to the third group, at little or no risk of malaria resurgence. The following factors were used to categorize communities according to the risk that malaria might become reestablished if the disease should be imported from elsewhere: species of malarial mosquito present; changes in mosquito numbers and in the area of water susceptible to population by Anopheles; temperature conditions and, consequently, the length of the malaria transmission season and the season of effective susceptibility of the mosquito to infection; population migration; quality of laboratory testing for the diagnosis of malaria. Measures aimed at the destruction of mosquitoes are intended to reduce the numbers of Anopheles in the communities most at risk of malaria resurgence, i.e. those in group 1 above and the actual foci of malaria infection. Because of the economic crisis and financial difficulties, fewer areas have been treated in recent years. In 1999, 1387 hectares of water and 450,000 square metres of buildings were treated (see Fig. 2). Measures to control biting flies in health establishments, recreation areas, etc. Certainly also help to protect people from malarial mosquitoes. In 1999, 12,501 hectares of water and land were treated from the ground or the air (see Fig. 3). In the present situation, the main reasons for the difficulties affecting the malaria control and prevention campaign are as follows. Staff numbers in the Republic's parasitology service have been

  17. Factors that are associated with the risk of acquiring Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Sabah, Malaysia: a case-control study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigg, M J; William, T; Drakeley, C J; Jelip, J; von Seidlein, L; Barber, B E; Fornace, K M; Anstey, N M; Yeo, T W; Cox, J

    2014-08-22

    Plasmodium knowlesi has long been present in Malaysia, and is now an emerging cause of zoonotic human malaria. Cases have been confirmed throughout South-East Asia where the ranges of its natural macaque hosts and Anopheles leucosphyrus group vectors overlap. The majority of cases are from Eastern Malaysia, with increasing total public health notifications despite a concurrent reduction in Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria. The public health implications are concerning given P. knowlesi has the highest risk of severe and fatal disease of all Plasmodium spp in Malaysia. Current patterns of risk and disease vary based on vector type and competence, with individual exposure risks related to forest and forest-edge activities still poorly defined. Clustering of cases has not yet been systematically evaluated despite reports of peri-domestic transmission and known vector competence for human-to-human transmission. A population-based case-control study will be conducted over a 2-year period at two adjacent districts in north-west Sabah, Malaysia. Confirmed malaria cases presenting to the district hospital sites meeting relevant inclusion criteria will be requested to enrol. Three community controls matched to the same village as the case will be selected randomly. Study procedures will include blood sampling and administration of household and individual questionnaires to evaluate potential exposure risks associated with acquisition of P. knowlesi malaria. Secondary outcomes will include differences in exposure variables between P. knowlesi and other Plasmodium spp, risk of severe P. knowlesi malaria, and evaluation of P. knowlesi case clustering. Primary analysis will be per protocol, with adjusted ORs for exposure risks between cases and controls calculated using conditional multiple logistic regression models. This study has been approved by the human research ethics committees of Malaysia, the Menzies School of Health Research, Australia, and the London

  18. Elevated dry-season malaria prevalence associated with fine-scale spatial patterns of environmental risk: a case-control study of children in rural Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townes, Lindsay R; Mwandama, Dyson; Mathanga, Don P; Wilson, Mark L

    2013-11-11

    Understanding the role of local environmental risk factors for malaria in holo-endemic, poverty-stricken settings will be critical to more effectively implement- interventions aimed at eventual elimination. Household-level environmental drivers of malaria risk during the dry season were investigated in rural southern Malawi among children Authority (TA) regions dominated by small-scale agriculture. Ten villages were randomly selected from TA Sitola (n = 6) and Nsamala (n = 4). Within each village, during June to August 2011, a census was conducted of all households with children under-five and recorded their locations with a geographic position system (GPS) device. At each participating house, a nurse administered a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) to children under five years of age, and a questionnaire to parents. Environmental data were collected for each house, including land cover within 50-m radius. Variables found to be significantly associated with P. falciparum infection status in bivariate analysis were included in generalized linear models, including multivariate logistic regression (MLR) and multi-level multivariate logistic regression (MLLR). Spatial clustering of RDT status, environmental factors, and Pearson residuals from MLR and MLLR were analysed using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Of 390 children enrolled from six villages in Sitola (n = 162) and four villages in Nsamala (n = 228), 45.6% tested positive (n = 178) for Plasmodium infection by RDT. The MLLR modelled the statistical relationship of Plasmodium positives and household proximity to agriculture ( 2.58, p < 0.01) predominantly within TA Sitola, while residuals from MLLR showed no such clustering. This study provides evidence for significant, dry-season heterogeneity of malaria prevalence strongly linked to peridomestic land use, and particularly of elevated risk associated with nearby crop production.

  19. Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibret, Solomon; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Nhamo, Luxon; Wilson, G Glenn

    2016-09-05

    Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change. The distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs. The number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21-23 million in the 2020s, 25-26 million in the 2050s and 28-29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2-1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1-3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4-3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. In the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected

  20. Identifying environmental risk factors and mapping the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, A.; Davis, J. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Human West Nile virus (WNV) first arrived in the USA in 1999 and has since then spread across the country. Today, the highest incidence rates are found in the state of South Dakota. The disease occurrence depends on the complex interaction between the mosquito vector, the bird host and the dead-end human host. Understanding the spatial domain of this interaction and being able to identify disease transmission hotspots is crucial for effective disease prevention and mosquito control. In this study we use geospatial environmental information to understand what drives the spatial distribution of cases of human West Nile virus in South Dakota and to map relative infection risk across the state. To map the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota, we used geocoded human case data from the years 2004-2016. Satellite data from the Landsat ETM+ and MODIS for the years 2003 to 2016 were used to characterize environmental patterns. From these datasets we calculated indices, such as the normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized differenced water index (NDWI). In addition, datasets such as the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), National Wetland inventory (NWI), National Elevation Dataset (NED) and Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) were utilized. Environmental variables were summarized for a buffer zone around the case and control points. We used a boosted regression tree model to identify the most important variables describing the risk of WNV infection. We generated a risk map by applying this model across the entire state. We found that the highest relative risk is present in the James River valley in northeastern South Dakota. Factors that were identified as influencing the transmission risk include inter-annual variability of vegetation cover, water availability and temperature. Land covers such as grasslands, low developed areas and wetlands were also found to be good predictors for human

  1. A decision-support scheme for mapping endangered areas in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, R.H.A.; Benninga, J.; Bremmer, J.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Ilieva, Z.; Jarosik, V.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D.J.; Makowski, D.; Pergl, J.; Reynaud, P.; Robinet, C.; Soliman, T.; Werf, van der W.; Worner, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a decision-support scheme (DSS) for mapping the area where economically important loss is likely to occur (the endangered area). It has been designed by the PRATIQUE project to help pest risk analysts address the numerous risk mapping challenges and decide on the most suitable

  2. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  3. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  4. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  5. The demographics of human and malaria movement and migration patterns in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pindolia, Deepa K; Garcia, Andres J; Huang, Zhuojie; Smith, David L; Alegana, Victor A; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Tatem, Andrew J

    2013-11-05

    The quantification of parasite movements can provide valuable information for control strategy planning across all transmission intensities. Mobile parasite carrying individuals can instigate transmission in receptive areas, spread drug resistant strains and reduce the effectiveness of control strategies. The identification of mobile demographic groups, their routes of travel and how these movements connect differing transmission zones, potentially enables limited resources for interventions to be efficiently targeted over space, time and populations. National population censuses and household surveys provide individual-level migration, travel, and other data relevant for understanding malaria movement patterns. Together with existing spatially referenced malaria data and mathematical models, network analysis techniques were used to quantify the demographics of human and malaria movement patterns in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Movement networks were developed based on connectivity and magnitudes of flow within each country and compared to assess relative differences between regions and demographic groups. Additional malaria-relevant characteristics, such as short-term travel and bed net use, were also examined. Patterns of human and malaria movements varied between demographic groups, within country regions and between countries. Migration rates were highest in 20-30 year olds in all three countries, but when accounting for malaria prevalence, movements in the 10-20 year age group became more important. Different age and sex groups also exhibited substantial variations in terms of the most likely sources, sinks and routes of migration and malaria movement, as well as risk factors for infection, such as short-term travel and bed net use. Census and survey data, together with spatially referenced malaria data, GIS and network analysis tools, can be valuable for identifying, mapping and quantifying regional connectivities and the mobility of different demographic

  6. Rural households at risk of malaria did not own sufficient insecticide treated nets at Dabat HDSS site: evidence from a cross sectional re-census.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchie, Kindie Fentahun; Alemu, Kassahun; Tariku, Amare; Tsegaye, Adino Tesfahun; Abebe, Solomon Mekonnen; Yitayal, Mezgebu; Awoke, Tadesse; Biks, Gashaw Andargie

    2017-11-21

    Malaria is the leading cause of disease burden across the world, especially in African countries. Ethiopia has designed a five year (2011-2015) plan to cover 100% of the households in malarious areas with one insecticide treated net (ITN) for every two persons, and to raise consistent ITN utilization to at least 80%. However, evidence on ownership of ITN among malarious rural households in northwest Ethiopia is quite limited. Hence, the present study aimed at assessing ownership of ITN and associated factors among rural households at risk of malaria at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site, northwest Ethiopia. A cross sectional re-census was carried out in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site during peak malaria seasons from October to December, 2014. Data for 15,088 households at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site were used for the analysis. Descriptive measures and binary logistic regression were carried out. Among those who owned at least one ITN, 53.4% were living at an altitude >2500 m above sea level. However, out of households living at an altitude ownership of ITN. Rural households at risk of malaria did not own a sufficient number of ITN though the utilization is promising. Moreover, prioritizing children and pregnant women to sleep under ITN remains public health problems. Programmers, partners and implementers should consider tailored intervention strategy stratified by altitude in distributing ITN. ITN distribution should also be accompanied by using exhaustive promotion strategies that consider people without access to any source of information, and educating households to prioritize pregnant and under five children to sleep under ITN.

  7. Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon I Hay

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349-552 million clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC, and Myanmar (Burma, where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked

  8. Robustness of risk maps and survey networks to knowledge gaps about a new invasive pest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Yakov Ben-Haim; William D. Smith

    2010-01-01

    In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads...

  9. Land surface and climate parameters and malaria features in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Y. A.; Anh, N. K.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface parameters may affect local microclimate, which in turn alters the development of mosquito habitats and transmission risks (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-vector borne diseases). Forest malaria is a chromic issue in Southeast Asian countries, in particular, such as Vietnam (in 1991, approximate 2 million cases and 4,646 deaths were reported (https://sites.path.org)). Vietnam has lowlands, sub-tropical high humidity, and dense forests, resulting in wide-scale distribution and high biting rate of mosquitos in Vietnam, becoming a challenging and out of control scenario, especially in Vietnamese Central Highland region. It is known that Vietnam's economy mainly relies on agriculture and malaria is commonly associated with poverty. There is a strong demand to investigate the relationship between land surface parameters (land cover, soil moisture, land surface temperature, etc.) and climatic variables (precipitation, humidity, evapotranspiration, etc.) in association with malaria distribution. GIS and remote sensing have been proven their powerful potentials in supporting environmental and health studies. The objective of this study aims to analyze physical attributes of land surface and climate parameters and their links with malaria features. The outcomes are expected to illustrate how remotely sensed data has been utilized in geohealth applications, surveillance, and health risk mapping. In addition, a platform with promising possibilities of allowing disease early-warning systems with citizen participation will be proposed.

  10. Electricity Consumption Risk Map - The use of Urban Climate Mapping for smarter analysis: Case study for Birmingham, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes Azevedo, Juliana; Burghardt, René; Chapman, Lee; Katzchner, Lutz; Muller, Catherine L.

    2015-04-01

    Climate is a key driving factor in energy consumption. However, income, vegetation, building mass structure, topography also impact on the amount of energy consumption. In a changing climate, increased temperatures are likely to lead to increased electricity consumption, affecting demand, distribution and generation. Furthermore, as the world population becomes more urbanized, increasing numbers of people will need to deal with not only increased temperatures from climate change, but also from the unintentional modification of the urban climate in the form of urban heat islands. Hence, climate and climate change needs to be taken into account for future urban planning aspects to increase the climate and energy resilience of the community and decrease the future social and economic costs. Geographical Information Systems provide a means to create urban climate maps as part of the urban planning process. Geostatistical analyses linking these maps with demographic and social data, enables a geo-statistical analysis to identify linkages to high-risk groups of the community and vulnerable areas of town and cities. Presently, the climatope classification is oriented towards thermal aspects and the ventilation quality (roughness) of the urban areas but can also be adapted to take into account other structural "environmental factors". This study aims to use the climatope approach to predict areas of potential high electricity consumption in Birmingham, UK. Several datasets were used to produce an average surface temperature map, vegetation map, land use map, topography map, building height map, built-up area roughness calculations, an average air temperature map and a domestic electricity consumption map. From the correlations obtained between the layers it is possible to average the importance of each factor and create a map for domestic electricity consumption to understand the influence of environmental aspects on spatial energy consumption. Based on these results city

  11. Malaria prophylaxis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria D:lay still be contracted despite good cOD:lpliance with ... true that prophylaxis is always better than no prophy- laxis, nor is ... If used during pregnancy, a folic acid supplement ... include folate deficiency, agranulocytosis, illegaloblastic.

  12. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, DODGE COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Dodge Portion Upper Rock River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  13. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, COLUMBIA COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Columbia Portion Baraboo River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  14. Factors influencing the usage of different types of malaria prevention ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To examine factors which influence the use of different types of malaria prevention ... risk areas, religion, education and income influenced ITN usage, whereas only age, malaria .... the uptake of IPTp given that the person would not.

  15. Radon risk mapping of the Czech Republic on a scale 1:50000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnet, I.; Miksova, J.; Tomas, R.; Karenova, J.

    2000-01-01

    A new type of radon risk maps on a scale 1:50000 was published in the Czech Republic. Maps are based on the vectorized contours of' geological units and rock types and field soil gas radon measurements from the radon database. Radon risk is expressed in four categories. More detailed topography enables to predict the radon risk from bedrock in the intravilans of villages and towns. (author)

  16. Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hagemeier-Klose

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey.

    The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

  17. Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, Pietro; Trzaska, Sylwia; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Kalashnikova, Olga; del Corral, John; Cousin, Remi; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Bell, Michael; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

    2013-01-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

  18. Does the Use of Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine in Treating Patients with Uncomplicated falciparum Malaria Reduce the Risk for Recurrent New falciparum Infection More Than Artemether-Lumefantrine?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wisdom Akpaloo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria contributes significantly to the global disease burden. The World Health Organization recommended the use of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs for treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria a decade ago in response to problems of drug resistance. This review compared two of the ACTs—Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine (DP and Artemether-Lumefantrine (AL to provide evidence which one has the ability to offer superior posttreatment prophylaxis at 28 and 42 days posttreatment. Four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database and Global Health were searched on June 2, 2013 and a total of seven randomized controlled trials conducted in sub-Sahara Africa were included. Results involving 2, 340 participants indicates that reduction in risk for recurrent new falciparum infections (RNIs was 79% at day 28 in favour of DP [RR, 0.21; 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.32, P<0.001], and at day 42 was 44% favouring DP [RR, 0.56; 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.90; P=0.02]. No significant difference was seen in treatment failure rates between the two drugs at days 28 and 42. It is concluded that use of DP offers superior posttreatment prophylaxis compared to AL in the study areas. Hence DP can help reduce malaria cases in such areas more than AL.

  19. ABO blood group and the risk of placental malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adegnika, A.A.; Luty, A.J.F.; Grobusch, M.P.; Ramharter, M.; Yazdanbakhsh, M.; Kremsner, P.G.; Schwarz, N.G.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In malarious areas of the world, a higher proportion of the population has blood group O than in non-malarious areas. This is probably due to a survival advantage conferred either by an attenuating effect on the course of or reduction in the risk of infection by plasmodial parasites.

  20. ABO blood group and the risk of placental malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adegnika, Ayola A.; Luty, Adrian J. F.; Grobusch, Martin P.; Ramharter, Michael; Yazdanbakhsh, Maria; Kremsner, Peter G.; Schwarz, Norbert G.

    2011-01-01

    In malarious areas of the world, a higher proportion of the population has blood group O than in non-malarious areas. This is probably due to a survival advantage conferred either by an attenuating effect on the course of or reduction in the risk of infection by plasmodial parasites. Here, the

  1. THE EVOLUTION OF RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH: CHANGES IN KNOWLEDGE MAPS

    OpenAIRE

    Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

    2017-01-01

    One of the leading trends in modern academic research is risk management. Over the years, the approach to risk management has changed and affected many different areas. This study aims to investigate changes in risk management and trends of risk management in the past 20 years. Risk management related publications from 1990 to 2016 were retrieved from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. VOS viewer software was used to analyse the research trend. Literature growth related to risk manageme...

  2. Prevalence of and risk factors for malaria, filariasis, and intestinal parasites as single infections or co-infections in different settlements of Gabon, Central Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    M'bondoukwé, Noé Patrick; Kendjo, Eric; Mawili-Mboumba, Denise Patricia; Koumba Lengongo, Jeanne Vanessa; Offouga Mbouoronde, Christelle; Nkoghe, Dieudonné; Touré, Fousseyni; Bouyou-Akotet, Marielle Karine

    2018-01-30

    Malaria, filariasis, and intestinal parasitic infections (IPIs) are common and frequently overlap in developing countries. The prevalence and predictors of these infections were investigated in three different settlements (rural, semi-urban, and urban) of Gabon. During cross-sectional surveys performed from September 2013 to June 2014, 451 individuals were interviewed. In addition, blood and stool samples were analysed for the presence of Plasmodium, filarial roundworm, intestinal protozoan, and helminth infections. Intestinal parasitic infections (61.1%), including intestinal protozoa (56.7%) and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) (22.2%), predominated, whereas Plasmodium falciparum (18.8%), Loa loa (4.7%), and Mansonella perstans (1.1%) were less prevalent. Filariasis and STHs were mainly found in rural settlements, whereas a higher plasmodial infection prevalence rate was observed in the periurban area. The most common IPI was blastocystosis (48.6%), followed by ascaridiasis (13.7%), trichuriasis (11.8%), amoebiasis (9.3%), giardiasis (4.8%), and strongyloidiasis (3.7%). Hookworm was detected in one adult from rural Dienga. Adults had a higher prevalence of Blastocystis hominis and STHs, whereas Giardia duodenalis was more frequently observed among children aged below 5 years (P < 0.01). The polyparasitism rate was 41.5%, with 7.0% Plasmodium-IPIs and 1.8% Plasmodium-STH co-infections. The multivariate analysis showed that living in a suburban area, belonging to the age group of 5-15 years, having none or a secondary education, or having an open body water close to home were significant risk factors for malaria (P ≤ 0.01). For STH infections, identified risk factors were drinking untreated water and living in a rural area (P ≤ 0.04). No significant predictors were identified for IPIs and malaria-IPI co-infection. This study reports a high prevalence of IPIs and intestinal protozoa, but a low rate of malaria-IPI co-infections in the study sites

  3. Risk predicting of macropore flow using pedotransfer functions, textural maps and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Lægdsmand, Mette

    2011-01-01

    of this study were first to develop pedotransfer functions (PTFs) predicting near-saturated [k(−1)] and saturated (Ks) hydraulic conductivity using simple soil parameters as predictors and second to use this information and a newly developed rasterbased soil property map of Denmark to identify risk areas...... modeling were used to construct a new map dividing Denmark into risk categories for macropore flow. This map can be combined with other tools to identify areas where there is a high risk of contaminants leaching out of the root zone....

  4. Aliens in Transylvania: risk maps of invasive alien plant species in Central Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike Zimmermann

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the MAXENT algorithm, we developed risk maps for eight invasive plant species in southern Transylvania, Romania, a region undergoing drastic land-use changes. Our findings show that invasion risk increased with landscape heterogeneity. Roads and agricultural areas were most prone to invasion, whereas forests were least at risk.

  5. Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    vulnerability in order to lower health risks and disease impacts. The proposed framework explains the generic concepts of disease hazard, vulnerability, risk and its connections. It can be applied to many different diseases and implemented in different ways. Statistical or dynamic disease models integrating future climate projections can - for example - be combined with forecast models. These can be evaluated against different socio-economic development pathways and feed into decisions support systems with an ultimate aim of designing the most appropriate risk reduction strategies. The paper will present first preliminary results on the mapping of vulnerability for the Eastern African region, including diseases such as Malaria, Schistosomiasis and Rift Valley Fever and conclude with current research challenges and how they will be addressed within the HEALTHY FUTURES project.

  6. Elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tajikistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondrashin, Anatoly V; Sharipov, Azizullo S; Kadamov, Dilshod S; Karimov, Saifuddin S; Gasimov, Elkhan; Baranova, Alla M; Morozova, Lola F; Stepanova, Ekaterina V; Turbabina, Natalia A; Maksimova, Maria S; Morozov, Evgeny N

    2017-05-30

    Malaria was eliminated in Tajikistan by the beginning of the 1960s. However, sporadic introduced cases of malaria occurred subsequently probably as a result of transmission from infected mosquito Anopheles flying over river the Punj from the border areas of Afghanistan. During the 1970s and 1980s local outbreaks of malaria were reported in the southern districts bordering Afghanistan. The malaria situation dramatically changed during the 1990s following armed conflict and civil unrest in the newly independent Tajikistan, which paralyzed health services including the malaria control activities and a large-scale malaria epidemic occurred with more than 400,000 malaria cases. The malaria epidemic was contained by 1999 as a result of considerable financial input from the Government and the international community. Although Plasmodium falciparum constituted only about 5% of total malaria cases, reduction of its incidence was slower than that of Plasmodium vivax. To prevent increase in P. falciparum malaria both in terms of incidence and territory, a P. falciparum elimination programme in the Republic was launched in 200, jointly supported by the Government and the Global Fund for control of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. The main activities included the use of pyrethroids for the IRS with determined periodicity, deployment of mosquito nets, impregnated with insecticides, use of larvivorous fishes as a biological larvicide, implementation of small-scale environmental management, and use of personal protection methods by population under malaria risk. The malaria surveillance system was strengthened by the use of ACD, PCD, RCD and selective use of mass blood surveys. All detected cases were timely epidemiologically investigated and treated based on the results of laboratory diagnosis. As a result, by 2009, P. falciparum malaria was eliminated from all of Tajikistan, one year ahead of the originally targeted date. Elimination of P. falciparum also contributed towards

  7. Malaria successes and challenges in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Rajesh; Rastogi, Rakesh Mani; Ortega, Leonard

    2013-12-01

    Asia ranks second to Africa in terms of malaria burden. In 19 countries of Asia, malaria is endemic and 2.31 billion people or 62% of the total population in these countries are at risk of malaria. In 2010, WHO estimated around 34.8 million cases and 45,600 deaths due to malaria in Asia. In 2011, 2.7 million cases and > 2000 deaths were reported. India, Indonesia, Myanmar and Pakistan are responsible for >85% of the reported cases (confirmed) and deaths in Asia. In last 10 yr, due to availability of donor's fund specially from Global fund, significant progress has been made by the countries in Asia in scaling-up malaria control interventions which were instrumental in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality significantly. There is a large heterogeneity in malaria epidemiology in Asia. As a result, the success in malaria control/elimination is also diverse. As compared to the data of the year 2000, out of 19 malaria endemic countries, 12 countries were able to reduce malaria incidence (microscopically confirmed cases only) by 75%. Two countries, namely Bangladesh and Malaysia are projected to reach 75% reduction by 2015 while India is projected to reach 50-75% only by 2015. The trend could not be assessed in four countries, namely Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Timor-Leste due to insufficient consistent data. Numerous key challenges need to be addressed to sustain the gains and eliminate malaria in most parts of Asia. Some of these are to control the spread of resistance in Plasmodium falciparum to artemisinin, control of outdoor transmission, control of vivax malaria and ensuring universal coverage of key interventions. Asia has the potential to influence the malaria epidemiology all over the world as well as to support the global efforts in controlling and eliminating malaria through production of quality-assured ACTs, RDTs and long-lasting insecticidal nets.

  8. Malaria chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Peter; Ward, Stephen

    2006-01-01

    Most malaria control strategies today depend on safe and effective drugs, as they have done for decades. But sensitivity to chloroquine, hitherto the workhorse of malaria chemotherapy, has rapidly declined throughout the tropics since the 1980s, and this drug is now useless in many high-transmission areas. New options for resource-constrained governments are few, and there is growing evidence that the burden from malaria has been increasing, as has malaria mortality in Africa. In this chapter, we have tried to outline the main pharmacological properties of current drugs, and their therapeutic uses and limitations. We have summarised the ways in which these drugs are employed, both in the formal health sector and in self-medication. We have briefly touched on the limitations of current drug development, but have tried to pick out a few promising drugs that are under development. Given that Plasmodium falciparum is the organism that kills, and that has developed multi-drug resistance, we have tended to focus upon it. Similarly, given that around 90% of global mortality from malaria occurs in Africa, there is the tendency to dwell on this continent. We give no apology for placing our emphasis upon the use of antimalarial drugs in endemic populations rather than their use for prophylaxis in travellers.

  9. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Venette; Darren J. Kriticos; Roger D. Magarey; Frank H. Koch; Richard H.A. Baker; Susan P. Worner; Nadilia N. Gomez Raboteaux; Daniel W. McKenney; Erhard J. Dobesberger; Denys Yemshanov; Paul J. De Barro; William D. Hutchison; Glenn Fowler; Tom M. Kalaris; John. Pedlar

    2010-01-01

    Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to...

  10. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Venette; Darren J. Kriticos; Roger D. Magarey; Frank H. Koch; Richard H. A. Baker; Susan P. Worner; Nadila N. Gomez Raboteaux; Daniel W. McKenney; Erhard J. Dobesberger; Denys Yemshanov; Paul J. De Barro; William D. Hutchinson; Glenn Fowler; Tom M. Kalaris; John. Pedlar

    2010-01-01

    Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to...

  11. Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

  12. Marine oil spill risk mapping for accidental pollution and its application in a coastal city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Dongdong; Liang, Bin; Bao, Chenguang; Ma, Minghui; Xu, Yan; Yu, Chunyan

    2015-07-15

    Accidental marine oil spill pollution can result in severe environmental, ecological, economic and other consequences. This paper discussed the model of Marine Oil Spill Risk Mapping (MOSRM), which was constructed as follows: (1) proposing a marine oil spill risk system based on the typical marine oil spill pollution accidents and prevailing risk theories; (2) identifying suitable indexes that are supported by quantitative sub-indexes; (3) constructing the risk measuring models according to the actual interactions between the factors in the risk system; and (4) assessing marine oil spill risk on coastal city scale with GIS to map the overall risk. The case study of accidental marine oil spill pollution in the coastal area of Dalian, China was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model. The coastal areas of Dalian were divided into three zones with risk degrees of high, medium, and low. And detailed countermeasures were proposed for specific risk zones. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  14. Elimination of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in central part of the People’s Republic of China: analysis and prediction based on modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Chen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Five provinces in central People’s Republic of China (P.R. China have successfully reduced the burden of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in the last 7 years. The results of the Action Plan of China Malaria Elimination (APCME that com- menced in 2010 are analysed against the background of the progress reached by the national malaria control programme (NMEP that was launched in 2006. We examined the epidemiological changes in the number of autochthonous cases over time and discuss the feasibility of achieving the goal of malaria elimination by 2020. There was a total decline of 34,320 malaria cases between 2006 and 2012 arriving at an average annual incidence of 0.04 per 10,000 people by 2012. At the same time, the number of counties reporting autochthonous cases declined from 290 to 19. Spatial autocorrelation and Bayesian modelling were used to evaluate the datasets and predict the spatio-temporal pattern in the near future. The former approach showed that spatial clusters of P. vivax malaria existed in the study region during the study period, while the risk prediction map generated by the Bayesian model indicates that only sporadic malaria cases will appear during in the future. The results suggest that the initial NMEP approach and the follow-up APCME strategy have played a key role in reducing the threat of malaria in central P.R. China. However, to achieve the goal of malaria elimination by the end of the current decade, interven- tion plans must be adjusted with attention paid to those endemic counties still at risk according to the prediction map.

  15. Mapping hotspots of malaria transmission from pre-existing hydrology, geology and geomorphology data in the pre-elimination context of Zanzibar, United Republic of Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Andrew; Mageni, Zawadi; Dongus, Stefan; Killeen, Gerry; Macklin, Mark G; Majambare, Silas; Ali, Abdullah; Msellem, Mwinyi; Al-Mafazy, Abdul-Wahiyd; Smith, Mark; Thomas, Chris

    2015-01-22

    Larval source management strategies can play an important role in malaria elimination programmes, especially for tackling outdoor biting species and for eliminating parasite and vector populations when they are most vulnerable during the dry season. Effective larval source management requires tools for identifying geographic foci of vector proliferation and malaria transmission where these efforts may be concentrated. Previous studies have relied on surface topographic wetness to indicate hydrological potential for vector breeding sites, but this is unsuitable for karst (limestone) landscapes such as Zanzibar where water flow, especially in the dry season, is subterranean and not controlled by surface topography. We examine the relationship between dry and wet season spatial patterns of diagnostic positivity rates of malaria infection amongst patients reporting to health facilities on Unguja, Zanzibar, with the physical geography of the island, including land cover, elevation, slope angle, hydrology, geology and geomorphology in order to identify transmission hot spots using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) analysis. The distribution of both wet and dry season malaria infection rates can be predicted using freely available static data, such as elevation and geology. Specifically, high infection rates in the central and southeast regions of the island coincide with outcrops of hard dense limestone which cause locally elevated water tables and the location of dolines (shallow depressions plugged with fine-grained material promoting the persistence of shallow water bodies). This analysis provides a tractable tool for the identification of malaria hotspots which incorporates subterranean hydrology, which can be used to target larval source management strategies.

  16. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency and the risk of malaria: A meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fengmei; Zhang, Juan; Pu, Yuepu

    2017-10-01

    This study is designed to perform a meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA) to investigate whether people with G6PD deficiency suffered less malarial infection. We searched from PubMed, Science Direct, Springer Link, CNKI, and Wan Fang databases for case-control study, cohort study or cross section study until April 2017. TSA was used to determine the state of evidence and calculate the required sample size. Eight case-control studies and five cross-sectional studies (30,683participants) were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with normal control group, we found significant protection from severe malaria (OR 0.644, 95% CI [0.493-0.842]; P=0.001) among people with decreasing G6PD activity. People with variations of G6PD gene at nucleotide 202(G6PD A-) were also found to be associated with resistance on severe malaria pooled (OR 0.851, 95% CI [0.779-0.930]; P =0.0001). Sex-stratified test suggested that protection of severe malaria is conferred to both G6PD A-males and heterozygous females (with a single copy of the variant). In conclusion, our study found a significant protection from severe malaria among G6PD deficient people compared to the

  17. Estimated risk of placental infection and low birthweight attributable to Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa in 2010: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, Patrick G. T.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Garske, Tini; Menendez, Clara; Ghani, Azra C.

    2014-01-01

    Plasmodium falciparum infection during pregnancy leads to adverse outcomes including low birthweight; however, contemporary estimates of the potential burden of malaria in pregnancy in Africa (in the absence of interventions) are poor. We aimed to estimate the need to protect pregnant women from

  18. National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM)--cutting edge software for rapid insect and disease risk model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank J. Krist

    2010-01-01

    The Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) of the U.S. Forest Service is leading an effort to produce the next version of the National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM) for targeted release in 2011. The goal of this effort is to update spatial depictions of risk of tree mortality based on: (1) newly derived 240-m geospatial information depicting the...

  19. Challenges to mapping the health risk of hepatitis A virus infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiersma Steven T

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background World maps are among the most effective ways to convey public health messages such as recommended vaccinations, but creating a useful and valid map requires careful deliberation. The changing epidemiology of hepatitis A virus (HAV in many world regions heightens the need for up-to-date risk maps. HAV infection is usually asymptomatic in children, so low-income areas with high incidence rates usually have a low burden of disease. In higher-income areas, many adults remain susceptible to the virus and, if infected, often experience severe disease. Results Several challenges associated with presenting hepatitis A risk using maps were identified, including the need to decide whether prior infection or continued susceptibility more aptly indicates risk, whether to display incidence or prevalence, how to distinguish between different levels of risk, how to display changes in risk over time, how to present complex information to target audiences, and how to handle missing or obsolete data. Conclusion For future maps to be comparable across place and time, we propose the use of the age at midpoint of population susceptibility as a standard indicator for the level of hepatitis A endemicity within a world region. We also call for the creation of an accessible active database for population-based age-specific HAV seroprevalence and incidence studies. Health risk maps for other conditions with rapidly changing epidemiology would benefit from similar strategies.

  20. Wetlands and Malaria in the Amazon: Guidelines for the Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote-Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catry, Thibault; Li, Zhichao; Roux, Emmanuel; Herbreteau, Vincent; Dessay, Nadine

    2018-01-01

    The prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria, are important health issues in tropical areas. Malaria transmission is a multi-scale process strongly controlled by environmental factors, and the use of remote-sensing data is suitable for the characterization of its spatial and temporal dynamics. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is well-adapted to tropical areas, since it is capable of imaging independent of light and weather conditions. In this study, we highlight the contribution of SAR sensors in the assessment of the relationship between vectors, malaria and the environment in the Amazon region. More specifically, we focus on the SAR-based characterization of potential breeding sites of mosquito larvae, such as man-made water collections and natural wetlands, providing guidelines for the use of SAR capabilities and techniques in order to optimize vector control and malaria surveillance. In light of these guidelines, we propose a framework for the production of spatialized indicators and malaria risk maps based on the combination of SAR, entomological and epidemiological data to support malaria risk prevention and control actions in the field. PMID:29518988

  1. Wetlands and Malaria in the Amazon: Guidelines for the Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote-Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibault Catry

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria, are important health issues in tropical areas. Malaria transmission is a multi-scale process strongly controlled by environmental factors, and the use of remote-sensing data is suitable for the characterization of its spatial and temporal dynamics. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR is well-adapted to tropical areas, since it is capable of imaging independent of light and weather conditions. In this study, we highlight the contribution of SAR sensors in the assessment of the relationship between vectors, malaria and the environment in the Amazon region. More specifically, we focus on the SAR-based characterization of potential breeding sites of mosquito larvae, such as man-made water collections and natural wetlands, providing guidelines for the use of SAR capabilities and techniques in order to optimize vector control and malaria surveillance. In light of these guidelines, we propose a framework for the production of spatialized indicators and malaria risk maps based on the combination of SAR, entomological and epidemiological data to support malaria risk prevention and control actions in the field.

  2. Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kjellgren

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC, flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address – in research as well as in practice – since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.

  3. Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellgren, S.

    2013-07-01

    In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address - in research as well as in practice - since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.

  4. An analysis of the spatial distribution of Plasmodium sporozoites and effects of climatic correlates on malaria infection in Anyigba town, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ifatimehin, Olarewaju Oluseyi; Falola, O O; Odogbo, E V

    2013-10-27

    The infectivity of sporozoites on both mosquitoes and human is the major cause of malaria infection on its host, Man. Malaria infection had continued to blossom despite measures to curb it. Clinically diagnosed malaria data for 3 years, capture of mosquitoes for laboratory analysis to determining the infectivity of sporozoites, responses from the population on the number of episode of malaria in the last 60 days were all collected and generated, and also subjected to various analysis using methods accepted tools and methods. A fifteen weeks climatic data was also collected. It was discovered that malaria incidence of 467.2853/1000 persons is very high. This high rate is possible as out of every 10 mosquitoes in Anyigba, 4 are infected by sporozoites and can possibly transmit these sporozoites during blood feeding on the population. This is affirmed by the prevalence of malaria by 54.75% among Anyigba's population. At p>001 (0.829), climatic variables and sporozoites rate showed a strong affinity with the prevalence of malaria. The risk map showed that the university community and the surrounding students' lodges are areas of very high risk. Therefore, the populace is strongly advised to employed practicable measures such as regular environmental sanitation and the use of Insecticidal Treated Nets (ITN) in order to drastically address this epidemic.

  5. Cartographic Design in Flood Risk Mapping - A Challenge for Communication and Stakeholder Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, S.; Serrhini, K.; Dorner, W.

    2009-12-01

    In order to mitigate flood hazards and to minimise associated losses, technical protection measures have been additionally and increasingly supplemented by non-technical mitigation, i.e. land-use planning activities. This is commonly done by creating maps which indicate such areas by different cartographic symbols, such as colour, size, shape, and typography. Hazard and risk mapping is the accepted procedure when communicating potential threats to stakeholders, and is therefore required in the European Member States in order to meet the demands of the European Flood Risk Directive. However, available information is sparse concerning the impact of such maps on different stakeholders, i.e., specialists in flood risk management, politicians, and affected citizens. The lack of information stems from a traditional approach to map production which does not take into account specific end-user needs. In order to overcome this information shortage the current study used a circular approach such that feed-back mechanisms originating from different perception patterns of the end user would be considered. Different sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to different groups of test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented communication of cartographic information. Therefore, the method of eye tracking was applied using a video-oculography technique. This resulted in a suggestion for a map template which fulfils the requirement to serve as an efficient communication tool for specialists and practitioners in hazard and risk mapping as well as for laypersons. Taking the results of this study will enable public authorities who are responsible for flood mitigation to (1) improve their flood risk maps, (2) enhance flood risk awareness, and therefore (3) create more disaster-resilient communities.

  6. The epidemiology of postpartum malaria: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boel, Machteld E.; Rijken, Marcus J.; Brabin, Bernard J.; Nosten, François; McGready, Rose

    2012-01-01

    Pregnant women are more susceptible to malaria than their non-pregnant counterparts. Less is known about the risk of malaria in the postpartum period. The epidemiology of postpartum malaria was systematically reviewed. Eleven articles fitted the inclusion criteria. Of the 10 studies that compared

  7. Malaria in pregnancy in Nigeria: Analysis of characteristics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria in pregnancy poses a very serious risk to both the woman and her unborn child. Many factors may moderate the occurrence of malaria. This study seeks to assess the intrinsic factors associated with malaria in pregnancy.This was a retrospective study of 880 women who attended antenatal clinic at Olabisi Onabanjo ...

  8. Knowledge and Perceptions on Malaria and Its Association with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Malaria remains the major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in Kenya. About 70 percent of the population is at risk of infection, and roughly 34,000 young children die of malaria-related causes annually. Objective: To investigate the knowledge and perceptions of the local people for malaria in ...

  9. Odyssean malaria outbreaks in Gauteng Province, South Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Odyssean malaria cases are inevitable in South Africa, given the volume of road, rail and air traffic from malaria risk areas into Gauteng and other non-endemic provinces. It is likely that many cases are missed, owing to the rare and sporadic nature of the condition. Malaria should always be kept in mind as a cause of ...

  10. A vectorial capacity product to monitor changing malaria transmission potential in epidemic regions of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, Pietro; Vancutsem, Christelle; Klaver, Robert; Rowland, James; Connor, Stephen J.

    2012-01-01

    Rainfall and temperature are two of the major factors triggering malaria epidemics in warm semi-arid (desert-fringe) and high altitude (highland-fringe) epidemic risk areas. The ability of the mosquitoes to transmit Plasmodium spp. is dependent upon a series of biological features generally referred to as vectorial capacity. In this study, the vectorial capacity model (VCAP) was expanded to include the influence of rainfall and temperature variables on malaria transmission potential. Data from two remote sensing products were used to monitor rainfall and temperature and were integrated into the VCAP model. The expanded model was tested in Eritrea and Madagascar to check the viability of the approach. The analysis of VCAP in relation to rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence data in these regions shows that the expanded VCAP correctly tracks the risk of malaria both in regions where rainfall is the limiting factor and in regions where temperature is the limiting factor. The VCAP maps are currently offered as an experimental resource for testing within Malaria Early Warning applications in epidemic prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa. User feedback is currently being collected in preparation for further evaluation and refinement of the VCAP model.

  11. Environmental data analysis and remote sensing for early detection of dengue and malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdelhamid; Rosy, Dilara A.

    2014-06-01

    Malaria and dengue fever are the two most common mosquito-transmitted diseases, leading to millions of serious illnesses and deaths each year. Because the mosquito vectors are sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, it is possible to map areas currently or imminently at high risk for disease outbreaks using satellite remote sensing. In this paper we propose the development of an operational geospatial system for malaria and dengue fever early warning; this can be done by bringing together geographic information system (GIS) tools, artificial neural networks (ANN) for efficient pattern recognition, the best available ground-based epidemiological and vector ecology data, and current satellite remote sensing capabilities. We use Vegetation Health Indices (VHI) derived from visible and infrared radiances measured by satellite-mounted Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) and available weekly at 4-km resolution as one predictor of malaria and dengue fever risk in Bangladesh. As a study area, we focus on Bangladesh where malaria and dengue fever are serious public health threats. The technology developed will, however, be largely portable to other countries in the world and applicable to other disease threats. A malaria and dengue fever early warning system will be a boon to international public health, enabling resources to be focused where they will do the most good for stopping pandemics, and will be an invaluable decision support tool for national security assessment and potential troop deployment in regions susceptible to disease outbreaks.

  12. Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.; Trzaska, S.; Perez, C.; Kalashnikova, O. V.; del Corral, J.; Cousin, R.; Blumenthal, M. B.; Connor, S.; Thomson, M. C.

    2012-12-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use, and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular Meningitis and Malaria. In this paper we present the new and improved products that have been developed for monitoring dust, temperature, rainfall and vectorial capacity model for monitoring and forecasting risks of Meningitis and Malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

  13. Sandwich mapping of schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yi; Bergquist, Robert; Lynn, Henry; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Li, Rui; Sun, Liqian; Xia, Congcong; Xiong, Chenglong; Zhang, Zhijie; Jiang, Qingwu

    2015-06-03

    Schistosomiasis mapping using data obtained from parasitological surveys is frequently used in planning and evaluation of disease control strategies. The available geostatistical approaches are, however, subject to the assumption of stationarity, a stochastic process whose joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. As this is impractical for large areas, we introduce here the sandwich method, the basic idea of which is to divide the study area (with its attributes) into homogeneous subareas and estimate the values for the reporting units using spatial stratified sampling. The sandwich method was applied to map the county-level prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica in Anhui Province, China based on parasitological data collected from sample villages and land use data. We first mapped the county-level prevalence using the sandwich method, then compared our findings with block Kriging. The sandwich estimates ranged from 0.17 to 0.21% with a lower level of uncertainty, while the Kriging estimates varied from 0 to 0.97% with a higher level of uncertainty, indicating that the former is more smoothed and stable compared to latter. Aside from various forms of reporting units, the sandwich method has the particular merit of simple model assumption coupled with full utilization of sample data. It performs well when a disease presents stratified heterogeneity over space.

  14. Sandwich mapping of schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Hu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis mapping using data obtained from parasitological surveys is frequently used in planning and evaluation of disease control strategies. The available geostatistical approaches are, however, subject to the assumption of stationarity, a stochastic process whose joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. As this is impractical for large areas, we introduce here the sandwich method, the basic idea of which is to divide the study area (with its attributes into homogeneous subareas and estimate the values for the reporting units using spatial stratified sampling. The sandwich method was applied to map the county-level prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica in Anhui Province, China based on parasitological data collected from sample villages and land use data. We first mapped the county-level prevalence using the sandwich method, then compared our findings with block Kriging. The sandwich estimates ranged from 0.17 to 0.21% with a lower level of uncertainty, while the Kriging estimates varied from 0 to 0.97% with a higher level of uncertainty, indicating that the former is more smoothed and stable compared to latter. Aside from various forms of reporting units, the sandwich method has the particular merit of simple model assumption coupled with full utilization of sample data. It performs well when a disease presents stratified heterogeneity over space.

  15. Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

    2009-11-01

    Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

  16. Kompliceret malaria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønn, A M; Bygbjerg, Ib Christian; Jacobsen, E

    1989-01-01

    An increasing number of cases of malaria, imported to Denmark, are caused by Plasmodium falciparum and severe and complicated cases are more often seen. In the Department of Infectious Diseases, Rigshospitalet, 23 out of 32 cases, hospitalized from 1.1-30.6.1988, i.e. 72%, were caused by P...

  17. Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in an endemic area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Akramul

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health burden in Southeastern Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region. Malaria is endemic in 13 districts of Bangladesh and the highest prevalence occurs in Khagrachari (15.47%. Methods A risk map was developed and geographic risk factors identified using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian geostatistical model was developed from previously identified individual and environmental covariates (p Results Predicted high prevalence areas were located along the north-eastern areas, and central part of the study area. Low to moderate prevalence areas were predicted in the southwestern, southeastern and central regions. Individual age and nearness to fragmented forest were associated with malaria prevalence after adjusting the spatial auto-correlation. Conclusion A Bayesian analytical approach using multiple enabling technologies (geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and remote sensing provide a strategy to characterize spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at a fine scale. Even in the most hyper endemic region of Bangladesh there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in risk. Areas that are predicted to be at high risk, based on the environment but that have not been reached by surveys are identified.

  18. Rural households at risk of malaria did not own sufficient insecticide treated nets at Dabat HDSS site: evidence from a cross sectional re-census

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kindie Fentahun Muchie

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is the leading cause of disease burden across the world, especially in African countries. Ethiopia has designed a five year (2011–2015 plan to cover 100% of the households in malarious areas with one insecticide treated net (ITN for every two persons, and to raise consistent ITN utilization to at least 80%. However, evidence on ownership of ITN among malarious rural households in northwest Ethiopia is quite limited. Hence, the present study aimed at assessing ownership of ITN and associated factors among rural households at risk of malaria at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site, northwest Ethiopia. Methods A cross sectional re-census was carried out in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site during peak malaria seasons from October to December, 2014. Data for 15,088 households at Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site were used for the analysis. Descriptive measures and binary logistic regression were carried out. Results Among those who owned at least one ITN, 53.4% were living at an altitude >2500 m above sea level. However, out of households living at an altitude <2000 m above sea level, 15.8% (95% CI 14.4%, 17.3% owned ITN at an average of 4.3 ± 2.1 persons per ITN. Of these, 69.5% (95% CI 64.7%, 74.1% used the ITN. Among utilizing households at malarious areas, 23.7% prioritized pregnant women and 31.4% children to use ITN. The availability of radio receiver/mobile (AOR 1.60, 95%CI 1.08, 2.35 and secondary/above educational status of household member (AOR 1.54, 95%CI 1.19, 2.04 were predictors of ownership of ITN. Conclusion Rural households at risk of malaria did not own a sufficient number of ITN though the utilization is promising. Moreover, prioritizing children and pregnant women to sleep under ITN remains public health problems. Programmers, partners and implementers should consider tailored intervention strategy stratified by altitude in distributing

  19. Community participation for malaria elimination in tafea province, vanuatu: part ii. social and cultural aspects of treatment-seeking behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riley Ian

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Early diagnosis and prompt effective case management are important components of any malaria elimination strategy. Tafea Province, Vanuatu has a rich history of traditional practices and beliefs, which have been integrated with missionary efforts and the introduction of modern constructions of health. Gaining a detailed knowledge of community perceptions of malarial symptomatology and treatment-seeking behaviours is essential in guiding effective community participation strategies for malaria control and elimination. Method An ethnographic study involving nine focus group discussions (FGD, 12 key informant interviews (KII and seven participatory workshops were carried out on Tanna Island, Vanuatu. Villages in areas of high and low malaria transmission risk were selected. Four ni-Vanuatu research officers, including two from Tanna, were trained and employed to conduct the research. Data underwent thematic analysis to examine treatment-seeking behaviour and community perceptions of malaria. Results Malaria was perceived to be a serious, but relatively new condition, and in most communities, identified as being apparent only after independence in 1980. Severe fever in the presence of other key symptoms triggered a diagnosis of malaria by individuals. Use of traditional or home practices was common: perceived vulnerability of patient and previous experience with malaria impacted on the time taken to seek treatment at a health facility. Barriers to health care access and reasons for delay in care-seeking included the availability of health worker and poor community infrastructure. Conclusion Due to programme success of achieving low malaria transmission, Tafea province has been identified for elimination of malaria by 2012 in the Government of Vanuatu Malaria Action Plans (MAP. An effective malaria elimination programme requires interactions between the community and its leaders, malaria workers and health providers for success in

  20. Plasmodium falciparum malaria and antimalarial interventions in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    The recent increases in malaria mortality rates in Africa ... the world's population at risk of malaria are in Africa. (WHO, 2000). ... understood to be both a disease of poverty and a cause ... anaemia and 8 to 14% of low birth weight in areas with.

  1. A Reduced Risk of Infection with Plasmodium vivax and Clinical Protection against Malaria Are Associated with Antibodies against the N Terminus but Not the C Terminus of Merozoite Surface Protein 1†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Paulo Afonso; Piovesan Alves, Fabiana; Fernandez-Becerra, Carmen; Pein, Oliver; Rodrigues Santos, Neida; Pereira da Silva, Luiz Hildebrando; Plessman Camargo, Erney; del Portillo, Hernando A.

    2006-01-01

    Progress towards the development of a malaria vaccine against Plasmodium vivax, the most widely distributed human malaria parasite, will require a better understanding of the immune responses that confer clinical protection to patients in regions where malaria is endemic. The occurrence of clinical protection in P. vivax malaria in Brazil was first reported among residents of the riverine community of Portuchuelo, in Rondônia, western Amazon. We thus analyzed immune sera from this same human population to determine if naturally acquired humoral immune responses against the merozoite surface protein 1 of P. vivax, PvMSP1, could be associated with reduced risk of infection and/or clinical protection. Our results demonstrated that this association could be established with anti-PvMSP1 antibodies predominantly of the immunoglobulin G3 subclass directed against the N terminus but not against the C terminus, in spite of the latter being more immunogenic and capable of natural boosting. This is the first report of a prospective study of P. vivax malaria demonstrating an association of reduced risk of infection and clinical protection with antibodies against an antigen of this parasite. PMID:16622209

  2. Seismic risk maps of Switzerland; description of the probabilistic method and discussion of some input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer-Rosa, D.; Merz, H.A.

    1976-01-01

    The probabilistic model used in a seismic risk mapping project for Switzerland is presented. Some of its advantages and limitations are spelled out. In addition some earthquake parameters which should be carefully investigated before using them in a seismic risk analysis are discussed

  3. Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

    2011-01-01

    We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

  4. Fine mapping in the MHC region accounts for 18% additional genetic risk for celiac disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Pulit, Sara L.; Trynka, Gosia; Hunt, Karen A.; Romanos, Jihane; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; van Heel, David A.; Wijmenga, Cisca; de Balcker, Paul I. W.

    Although dietary gluten is the trigger for celiac disease, risk is strongly influenced by genetic variation in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. We fine mapped the MHC association signal to identify additional risk factors independent of the HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles and

  5. Environmental risk mapping of pollutants: state of the art and communication aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lahr, J.; Kooistra, L.

    2010-01-01

    Risk maps help risk analysts and scientists to explore the spatial nature of the effects of environmental stressors such as pollutants. The development of Geographic Information Systems over the past few decades has greatly improved spatial representation and analysis of environmental information

  6. Mapping between Classical Risk Management and Game Theoretical Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Rajbhandari , Lisa; Snekkenes , Einar ,

    2011-01-01

    Part 2: Work in Progress; International audience; In a typical classical risk assessment approach, the probabilities are usually guessed and not much guidance is provided on how to get the probabilities right. When coming up with probabilities, people are generally not well calibrated. History may not always be a very good teacher. Hence, in this paper, we explain how game theory can be integrated into classical risk management. Game theory puts emphasis on collecting representative data on h...

  7. Estimation of risk map for cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. 1970-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofomi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu

    2012-01-01

    A risk map (map I) involving the effects of direct A-bomb exposure and of other confounding factors was estimated to analyze the death risk in the geographic distribution, and another risk map (map II) was also made by subtracting the direct exposure effect to see the confounder effect. The cohort was 37,382/157,327 survivors at Jan. 1, 1970, whose positional coordinates at the exposure were known, and was followed up until Dec. 31, 2009. For survival analysis, the endpoint was defined to be death (total 19,119) by regarding other 18,263 as censoring. Confounding factors were sex, age at the exposure, exposed dose and shielded condition. Maps I and II were depicted using the hazard ratio at the exposed position relative to the hypocenter, which was estimated by previously reported hazard model functions. Map I was found to be rather similar to concentric circle of the hypocenter, but to be tended a bit distorted toward northwest area. The distortion was clearer in the map II, indicating that death causes other than direct exposure existed. The confounder was thought to be the indirect exposure through the black rain, residual radiation and/or internal exposure, which awaiting future investigation. (T.T.)

  8. Mapping soil erosion risk in Serra de Grândola (Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto Paixão, H. M.; Granja Martins, F. M.; Zavala, L. M.; Jordán, A.; Bellinfante, N.

    2012-04-01

    Geomorphological processes can pose environmental risks to people and economical activities. Information and a better knowledge of the genesis of these processes is important for environmental planning, since it allows to model, quantify and classify risks, what can mitigate the threats. The objective of this research is to assess the soil erosion risk in Serra de Grândola, which is a north-south oriented mountain ridge with an altitude of 383 m, located in southwest of Alentejo (southern Portugal). The study area is 675 km2, including the councils of Grândola, Santiago do Cacém and Sines. The process for mapping of erosive status was based on the guidelines for measuring and mapping the processes of erosion of coastal areas of the Mediterranean proposed by PAP/RAC (1997), developed and later modified by other authors in different areas. This method is based on the application of a geographic information system that integrates different types of spatial information inserted into a digital terrain model and in their derivative models. Erosive status are classified using information from soil erodibility, slope, land use and vegetation cover. The rainfall erosivity map was obtained using the modified Fournier index, calculated from the mean monthly rainfall, as recorded in 30 meteorological stations with influence in the study area. Finally, the soil erosion risk map was designed by ovelaying the erosive status map and the rainfall erosivity map.

  9. Feasibility study of geospatial mapping of chronic disease risk to inform public health commissioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Douglas; Smith, Dianna; Mathur, Rohini; Robson, John; Greenhalgh, Trisha

    2012-01-01

    To explore the feasibility of producing small-area geospatial maps of chronic disease risk for use by clinical commissioning groups and public health teams. Cross-sectional geospatial analysis using routinely collected general practitioner electronic record data. Tower Hamlets, an inner-city district of London, UK, characterised by high socioeconomic and ethnic diversity and high prevalence of non-communicable diseases. The authors used type 2 diabetes as an example. The data set was drawn from electronic general practice records on all non-diabetic individuals aged 25-79 years in the district (n=163 275). The authors used a validated instrument, QDScore, to calculate 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Using specialist mapping software (ArcGIS), the authors produced visualisations of how these data varied by lower and middle super output area across the district. The authors enhanced these maps with information on examples of locality-based social determinants of health (population density, fast food outlets and green spaces). Data were piloted as three types of geospatial map (basic, heat and ring). The authors noted practical, technical and information governance challenges involved in producing the maps. Usable data were obtained on 96.2% of all records. One in 11 adults in our cohort was at 'high risk' of developing type 2 diabetes with a 20% or more 10-year risk. Small-area geospatial mapping illustrated 'hot spots' where up to 17.3% of all adults were at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Ring maps allowed visualisation of high risk for type 2 diabetes by locality alongside putative social determinants in the same locality. The task of downloading, cleaning and mapping data from electronic general practice records posed some technical challenges, and judgement was required to group data at an appropriate geographical level. Information governance issues were time consuming and required local and national consultation and agreement. Producing

  10. Understanding malaria treatment-seeking preferences within the public sector amongst mobile/migrant workers in a malaria elimination scenario: a mixed-methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Win, Aung Ye Naung; Maung, Thae Maung; Wai, Khin Thet; Oo, Tin; Thi, Aung; Tipmontree, Rungrawee; Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol; Kengganpanich, Mondha; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit

    2017-11-13

    Migration flows and the emerging resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapy in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) create programmatic challenges to meeting the AD 2030 malaria elimination target in Myanmar. The National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) targeted migrant workers based mainly on the stability of their worksites (categories 1: permanent work-setting; categories 2 and 3: less stable work-settings). This study aims to assess the migration patterns, malaria treatment-seeking preferences, and challenges encountered by mobile/migrant workers at remote sites in a malaria-elimination setting. A mixed-methods explanatory sequential study retrospectively analysed the secondary data acquired through migrant mapping surveys (2013-2015) in six endemic regions (n = 9603). A multivariate logistic regression model was used to ascertain the contributing factors. A qualitative strand (2016-2017) was added by conducting five focus-group discussions (n = 50) and five in-depth interviews with migrant workers from less stable worksites in Shwegyin Township, Bago Region. The contiguous approach was used to integrate quantitative and qualitative findings. Among others, migrant workers from Bago Region were significantly more likely to report the duration of stay ≥ 12 months (63% vs. 49%) and high seasonal mobility (40% vs. 35%). Particularly in less stable settings, a very low proportion of migrant workers (17%) preferred to seek malaria treatment from the public sector and was significantly influenced by the worksite stability (adjusted OR = 1.4 and 2.3, respectively for categories 2 and 1); longer duration of stay (adjusted OR = 3.5); and adjusted OR malaria messages, knowledge of malaria symptoms and awareness of means of malaria diagnosis. Qualitative data further elucidated their preference for the informal healthcare sector, due to convenience, trust and good relations, and put migrant workers at risk of substandard care. Moreover, the

  11. Heritability of malaria in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret J Mackinnon

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available While many individual genes have been identified that confer protection against malaria, the overall impact of host genetics on malarial risk remains unknown.We have used pedigree-based genetic variance component analysis to determine the relative contributions of genetic and other factors to the variability in incidence of malaria and other infectious diseases in two cohorts of children living on the coast of Kenya. In the first, we monitored the incidence of mild clinical malaria and other febrile diseases through active surveillance of 640 children 10 y old or younger, living in 77 different households for an average of 2.7 y. In the second, we recorded hospital admissions with malaria and other infectious diseases in a birth cohort of 2,914 children for an average of 4.1 y. Mean annual incidence rates for mild and hospital-admitted malaria were 1.6 and 0.054 episodes per person per year, respectively. Twenty-four percent and 25% of the total variation in these outcomes was explained by additively acting host genes, and household explained a further 29% and 14%, respectively. The haemoglobin S gene explained only 2% of the total variation. For nonmalarial infections, additive genetics explained 39% and 13% of the variability in fevers and hospital-admitted infections, while household explained a further 9% and 30%, respectively.Genetic and unidentified household factors each accounted for around one quarter of the total variability in malaria incidence in our study population. The genetic effect was well beyond that explained by the anticipated effects of the haemoglobinopathies alone, suggesting the existence of many protective genes, each individually resulting in small population effects. While studying these genes may well provide insights into pathogenesis and resistance in human malaria, identifying and tackling the household effects must be the more efficient route to reducing the burden of disease in malaria-endemic areas.

  12. Heritability of Malaria in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While many individual genes have been identified that confer protection against malaria, the overall impact of host genetics on malarial risk remains unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have used pedigree-based genetic variance component analysis to determine the relative contributions of genetic and other factors to the variability in incidence of malaria and other infectious diseases in two cohorts of children living on the coast of Kenya. In the first, we monitored the incidence of mild clinical malaria and other febrile diseases through active surveillance of 640 children 10 y old or younger, living in 77 different households for an average of 2.7 y. In the second, we recorded hospital admissions with malaria and other infectious diseases in a birth cohort of 2,914 children for an average of 4.1 y. Mean annual incidence rates for mild and hospital-admitted malaria were 1.6 and 0.054 episodes per person per year, respectively. Twenty-four percent and 25% of the total variation in these outcomes was explained by additively acting host genes, and household explained a further 29% and 14%, respectively. The haemoglobin S gene explained only 2% of the total variation. For nonmalarial infections, additive genetics explained 39% and 13% of the variability in fevers and hospital-admitted infections, while household explained a further 9% and 30%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Genetic and unidentified household factors each accounted for around one quarter of the total variability in malaria incidence in our study population. The genetic effect was well beyond that explained by the anticipated effects of the haemoglobinopathies alone, suggesting the existence of many protective genes, each individually resulting in small population effects. While studying these genes may well provide insights into pathogenesis and resistance in human malaria, identifying and tackling the household effects must be the more efficient route to reducing the burden

  13. Targeting imported malaria through social networks: a potential strategy for malaria elimination in Swaziland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koita, Kadiatou; Novotny, Joseph; Kunene, Simon; Zulu, Zulizile; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Gandhi, Monica; Gosling, Roland

    2013-06-27

    Swaziland has made great progress towards its goal of malaria elimination by 2015. However, malaria importation from neighbouring high-endemic Mozambique through Swaziland's eastern border remains a major factor that could prevent elimination from being achieved. In order to reach elimination, Swaziland must rapidly identify and treat imported malaria cases before onward transmission occurs. A nationwide formative assessment was conducted over eight weeks to determine if the imported cases of malaria identified by the Swaziland National Malaria Control Programme could be linked to broader social networks and to explore methods to access these networks. Using a structured format, interviews were carried out with malaria surveillance agents (6), health providers (10), previously identified imported malaria cases (19) and people belonging to the networks identified through these interviews (25). Most imported malaria cases were Mozambicans (63%, 12/19) making a living in Swaziland and sustaining their families in Mozambique. The majority of imported cases (73%, 14/19) were labourers and self-employed contractors who travelled frequently to Mozambique to visit their families and conduct business. Social networks of imported cases with similar travel patterns were identified through these interviews. Nearly all imported cases (89%, 17/19) were willing to share contact information to enable network members to be interviewed. Interviews of network members and key informants revealed common congregation points, such as the urban market places in Manzini and Malkerns, as well as certain bus stations, where people with similar travel patterns and malaria risk behaviours could be located and tested for malaria. This study demonstrated that imported cases of malaria belonged to networks of people with similar travel patterns. This study may provide novel methods for screening high-risk groups of travellers using both snowball sampling and time-location sampling of networks to

  14. Mapping the nursing care with the NIC for patients in risk for pressure ulcer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Gabriela Silva Pereira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective:To identify the nursing care prescribed for patients in risk for pressure ulcer (PU and to compare those with the Nursing Interventions Classification (NIC interventions. Method: Cross mapping study conducted in a university hospital. The sample was composed of 219 adult patients hospitalized in clinical and surgical units. The inclusion criteria were: score ≤ 13 in the Braden Scale and one of the nursing diagnoses, Self-Care deficit syndrome, Impaired physical mobility, Impaired tissue integrity, Impaired skin integrity, Risk for impaired skin integrity. The data were collected retrospectively in a nursing prescription system and statistically analyzed by crossed mapping. Result: It was identified 32 different nursing cares to prevent PU, mapped in 17 different NIC interventions, within them: Skin surveillance, Pressure ulcer prevention and Positioning. Conclusion: The cross mapping showed similarities between the prescribed nursing care and the NIC interventions.

  15. Representing human-mediated pathways in forest pest risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith

    2010-01-01

    Historically, U.S. forests have been invaded by a variety of nonindigenous insects and pathogens. Some of these pests have catastrophically impacted important species over a relatively short timeframe. To curtail future changes of this magnitude, agencies such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service have devoted substantial resources to assessing the risks...

  16. analysis and mapping of climate change risk and vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, to determine the degree of climate risk and the relative vulnerability of the districts, to climate .... widely used index for quantifying drought, was extracted from ... semivariogram/Covariance model) in ArcGIS 9.3.

  17. Probabilistic landslide hazards and risk mapping on Penang Island ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper deals with landslide hazards and risk analysis of Penang Island, Malaysia using Geo- .... require a priori knowledge of the main causes of landslides .... Soil. Rengam-bukit. 289450. 10.03. 96. 20.73. 2.07 temiang association. Selangor-kangkong. 34197. 1.18. 0. 0.00. 0.00 association. Local alluvium-. 373655.

  18. Public Health and Epidemiological Considerations For Avian Influenza Risk Mapping and Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph P. Dudley

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza viruses are now widely recognized as important threats to agricultural biosecurity and public health, and as the potential source for pandemic human influenza viruses. Human infections with avian influenza viruses have been reported from Asia (H5N1, H5N2, H9N2, Africa (H5N1, H10N7, Europe (H7N7, H7N3, H7N2, and North America (H7N3, H7N2, H11N9. Direct and indirect public health risks from avian influenzas are not restricted to the highly pathogenic H5N1 "bird flu" virus, and include low pathogenic as well as high pathogenic strains of other avian influenza virus subtypes, e.g., H1N1, H7N2, H7N3, H7N7, and H9N2. Research has shown that the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic was caused by an H1N1 influenza virus of avian origins, and during the past decade, fatal human disease and human-to-human transmission has been confirmed among persons infected with H5N1 and H7N7 avian influenza viruses. Our ability to accurately assess and map the potential economic and public health risks associated with avian influenza outbreaks is currently constrained by uncertainties regarding key aspects of the ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza viruses in birds and humans, and the mechanisms by which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses are transmitted between and among wild birds, domestic poultry, mammals, and humans. Key factors needing further investigation from a risk management perspective include identification of the driving forces behind the emergence and persistence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses within poultry populations, and a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms regulating transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses between industrial poultry farms and backyard poultry flocks. More information is needed regarding the extent to which migratory bird populations to contribute to the transnational and transcontinental spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the potential for wild bird

  19. Malaria in Brazil: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira-Ferreira, Joseli; Lacerda, Marcus V G; Brasil, Patrícia; Ladislau, José L B; Tauil, Pedro L; Daniel-Ribeiro, Cláudio Tadeu

    2010-04-30

    Brazilian populations have also been providing important information on whether immune responses specific to these antigens are generated in natural infections and their immunogenic potential as vaccine candidates. The present difficulties in reducing economic and social risk factors that determine the incidence of malaria in the Amazon Region render impracticable its elimination in the region. As a result, a malaria-integrated control effort--as a joint action on the part of the government and the population--directed towards the elimination or reduction of the risks of death or illness, is the direction adopted by the Brazilian government in the fight against the disease.

  20. Malaria in Brazil: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brasil Patrícia

    2010-04-01

    malaria vaccine candidates in Brazilian populations have also been providing important information on whether immune responses specific to these antigens are generated in natural infections and their immunogenic potential as vaccine candidates. The present difficulties in reducing economic and social risk factors that determine the incidence of malaria in the Amazon Region render impracticable its elimination in the region. As a result, a malaria-integrated control effort - as a joint action on the part of the government and the population - directed towards the elimination or reduction of the risks of death or illness, is the direction adopted by the Brazilian government in the fight against the disease.

  1. Application of Fuzzy Logic Inference System, Interval Numbers and Mapping Operator for Determination of Risk Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Omidvar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background & objective: Due to the features such as intuitive graphical appearance, ease of perception and straightforward applicability, risk matrix has become as one of the most used risk assessment tools. On the other hand, features such as the lack of precision in the classification of risk index, as well as subjective computational process, has limited its use. In order to solve this problem, in the current study we used fuzzy logic inference systems and mathematical operators (interval numbers and mapping operator. Methods: In this study, first 10 risk scenarios in the excavation and piping process were selected, then the outcome of the risk assessment were studied using four types of matrix including traditional (ORM, displaced cells (RCM , extended (ERM and fuzzy (FRM risk matrixes. Results: The results showed that the use of FRM and ERM matrix have prority, due to the high level of " Risk Tie Density" (RTD and "Risk Level Density" (RLD in the ORM and RCM matrix, as well as more accurate results presented in FRM and ERM, in risk assessment. While, FRM matrix provides more reliable results due to the application of fuzzy membership functions. Conclusion: Using new mathematical issues such as fuzzy sets and arithmetic and mapping operators for risk assessment could improve the accuracy of risk matrix and increase the reliability of the risk assessment results, when the accurate data are not available, or its data are avaliable in a limit range.

  2. The FTLD risk factor TMEM106B and MAP6 control dendritic trafficking of lysosomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Benjamin M; Lang, Christina M; Hogl, Sebastian; Tahirovic, Sabina; Orozco, Denise; Rentzsch, Kristin; Lichtenthaler, Stefan F; Hoogenraad, Casper C; Capell, Anja; Haass, Christian; Edbauer, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    TMEM106B is a major risk factor for frontotemporal lobar degeneration with TDP-43 pathology. TMEM106B localizes to lysosomes, but its function remains unclear. We show that TMEM106B knockdown in primary neurons affects lysosomal trafficking and blunts dendritic arborization. We identify microtubule-associated protein 6 (MAP6) as novel interacting protein for TMEM106B. MAP6 over-expression inhibits dendritic branching similar to TMEM106B knockdown. MAP6 knockdown fully rescues the dendritic phenotype of TMEM106B knockdown, supporting a functional interaction between TMEM106B and MAP6. Live imaging reveals that TMEM106B knockdown and MAP6 overexpression strongly increase retrograde transport of lysosomes in dendrites. Downregulation of MAP6 in TMEM106B knockdown neurons restores the balance of anterograde and retrograde lysosomal transport and thereby prevents loss of dendrites. To strengthen the link, we enhanced anterograde lysosomal transport by expressing dominant-negative Rab7-interacting lysosomal protein (RILP), which also rescues the dendrite loss in TMEM106B knockdown neurons. Thus, TMEM106B/MAP6 interaction is crucial for controlling dendritic trafficking of lysosomes, presumably by acting as a molecular brake for retrograde transport. Lysosomal misrouting may promote neurodegeneration in patients with TMEM106B risk variants. PMID:24357581

  3. Participatory three dimensional mapping for the preparation of landslide disaster risk reduction program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusratmoko, Eko; Wibowo, Adi; Cholid, Sofyan; Pin, Tjiong Giok

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents the results of applications of participatory three dimensional mapping (P3DM) method for fqcilitating the people of Cibanteng' village to compile a landslide disaster risk reduction program. Physical factors, as high rainfall, topography, geology and land use, and coupled with the condition of demographic and social-economic factors, make up the Cibanteng region highly susceptible to landslides. During the years 2013-2014 has happened 2 times landslides which caused economic losses, as a result of damage to homes and farmland. Participatory mapping is one part of the activities of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR)), because of the involvement of local communities is a prerequisite for sustainable disaster risk reduction. In this activity, participatory mapping method are done in two ways, namely participatory two-dimensional mapping (P2DM) with a focus on mapping of disaster areas and participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) with a focus on the entire territory of the village. Based on the results P3DM, the ability of the communities in understanding the village environment spatially well-tested and honed, so as to facilitate the preparation of the CBDRR programs. Furthermore, the P3DM method can be applied to another disaster areas, due to it becomes a medium of effective dialogue between all levels of involved communities.

  4. Adige river in Trento flooding map, 1892: private or public risk transfer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranzi, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    For the determination of the flood risk hydrologist and hydraulic engineers focuse their attention mainly to the estimation of physical factors determining the flood hazard, while economists and experts of social sciences deal mainly with the estimation of vulnerability and exposure. The fact that flood zoning involves both hydrological and socio-economic aspects, however, was clear already in the XIX century when the impact of floods on inundated areas started to appear in flood maps, for instance in the UK and in Italy. A pioneering 'flood risk' map for the Adige river in Trento, Italy, was already published in 1892, taking into account in detail both hazard intensity in terms of velocity and depth, frequency of occurrence, vulnerability and economic costs for flood protection with river embankments. This map is likely to be the reinterpreted certainly as a pioneering, and possibly as the first flood risk map for an Italian river and worldwide. Risk levels were divided in three categories and seven sub-categories, depending on flood water depth, velocity, frequency and damage costs. It is interesting to notice the fact that at that time the map was used to share the cost of levees' reparation and enhancement after the severe September 1882 flood as a function of the estimated level of protection of the respective areas against the flood risk. The sharing of costs between public bodies, the railway company and private owners was debated for about 20 years and at the end the public sustained the major costs. This shows how already at that time the economic assessment of structural flood protections was based on objective and rational cost-benefit criteria, that hydraulic risk mapping was perceived by the society as fundamental for the design of flood protection systems and that a balanced cost sharing between public and private was an accepted approach although some protests arose at that time.

  5. Poverty and malaria in the Yunnan province, China

    OpenAIRE

    Bi, Yan; Tong, Shilu

    2014-01-01

    Poverty and malaria appear to have an intertwined link. This paper aims to define the relationship between poverty and malaria in Yunnan, China, and to make recommendations for future research in this important area. Data on malaria prevalence and the population’s income in each county between 2005 and 2010 were obtained from the Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Yunnan Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Geographic mapping shows an apparent spatial convergence of pover...

  6. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

    2013-09-01

    Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  7. Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Ting-Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon

    2017-06-01

    Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

  8. Intermittent Preventive Therapy for Malaria During Pregnancy Using 2 vs 3 or More Doses of Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine and Risk of Low Birth Weight in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayentao, Kassoum; Garner, Paul; van Eijk, Anne Maria; Naidoo, Inbarani; Roper, Cally; Mulokozi, Abdunoor; MacArthur, John R.; Luntamo, Mari; Ashorn, Per; Doumbo, Ogobara K.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.

    2015-01-01

    Importance Intermittent preventive therapy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine to control malaria during pregnancy is used in 37 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and 31 of those countries use the standard 2-dose regimen. However, 2 doses may not provide protection during the last 4 to 10 weeks of pregnancy, a pivotal period for fetal weight gain. Objective To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of trials to determine whether regimens containing 3 or more doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for intermittent preventive therapy during pregnancy are associated with a higher birth weight or lower risk of low birth weight (LBW) (<2500 g) than standard 2-dose regimens. Data Sources and Study Selection ISI Web of Knowledge, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PubMed, LILACS, the Malaria in Pregnancy Library, Cochrane CENTRAL, and trial registries from their inception to December 2012, without language restriction. Eligible studies included randomized and quasi-randomized trials of intermittent preventive therapy during pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine monotherapy. Data Extraction Data were independently abstracted by 2 investigators. Relative risk (RR), mean differences, and 95% CIs were calculated with random-effects models. Results Of 241 screened studies, 7 trials of 6281 pregnancies were included. The median birth weight in the 2-dose group was 2870 g (range, 2722–3239 g) and on average 56 g higher (95% CI, 29–83 g; I2=0%) in the ≥3-dose group. Three or more doses were associated with fewer LBW births (RR,0.80; 95% CI, 0.69–0.94; I2=0%), with a median LBW risk per 1000 women in the 2-dose group (assumed control group risk) of 167 per 1000 vs 134 per 1000 in the ≥3-dose group (absolute risk reduction, 33 per 1000 [95% CI, 10–52]; number needed to treat=31). The association was consistent across a wide range of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance (0% to 96% dihydropteroate-synthase K540E mutations). There was no evidence of small-study bias. The ≥3-dose group had

  9. Investigations of the Anopheline (Diptera: Culicidae fauna from three areas belonging to the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve in order to evaluate the risk of malaria re-emergence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FALCUTA Elena

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The survey focused on the comparative analyses of the anopheline fauna belonging to the maculipennis group between three areas of the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, two of them situated near theRazim-Sinoe lagoonal complex and one belonging to the fluvial delta. The study that was carried out during 2006 and 2007 intended to establish the composition of the anopheline fauna as well as the longevity of the various species in order to evaluate the risk of malaria re-emergence. A number of 2437 mosquitoes, belonging to Anopheles maculipennis group were collected. The presence of the former vector species was pointed up: Anopheles atroparvus, Anophelesmesseae and Anopheles maculipennis sensu stricto. The investigations of the number of egg batches laid by a female have shown the physiological age of the respective female and namely if the female could infect or not the humans.

  10. Malaria Cases in the U.S. Reach 40-Year High: Information and Guidance for Clinicians

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast is an overview of the Clinician Outreach and Communication Activity (COCA) Call: Malaria Cases in the U.S. Reach 40-Year High: Information and Guidance for Clinicians. The number of malaria cases reported in the United States in 2011 was the largest since 1971, representing a 14 percent increase from 2010 and a 48 percent increase from 2008. A CDC subject matter expert describes malaria prevention strategies aimed at reducing the risk of malaria in travelers, discusses the diagnosis of malaria in patients with suspect malaria, and explains the treatment options for confirmed malaria cases.

  11. Developing a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Halimi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Summary: The strong relationship between climate and fascioliasis outbreaks enables the development of climate-based models to estimate the potential risk of fascioliasis outbreaks. This work aims to develop a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran using Ollerenshaw's fascioliasis risk index incorporating geographical information system (GIS. Using this index, a risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks for the entire country was developed. We determined that the country can be divided into 4 fascioliasis outbreak risk categories. Class 1, in which the Mt value is less than 100, includes more than 0.91 of the country's area. The climate in this class is not conducive to fascioliasis outbreaks in any month. Dryness and low temperature in the wet season (December to April are the key barriers against fascioliasis outbreaks in this class. The risk map developed based on climatic factors indicated that only 0.03 of the country's area, including Gilan province in the northern region of Iran, is highly suitable to fascioliasis outbreaks during September to January. The Mt value is greater than 500 in this class. Heavy rainfall in the summer and fall, especially in Rasht, Astara and Bandar Anzaly (≥1000 mm/year, creates more suitable breeding places for snail intermediate hosts. Keywords: Ollerenshaw fascioliasis risk index, Climate, Gilan province, Iran

  12. [Malaria in Poland in 2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepień, Małgorzata

    2012-01-01

    malaria (caused by P. falciparum), most frequently due to delayed diagnosis and treatment, is a continual problem. Such cases underline the need for adequate pre-travel information regarding the risk of malaria and preventive measures available.

  13. [Establishment of malaria early warning system in Jiangsu Province II application of digital earth system in malaria epidemic management and surveillance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Ming; Zhou, Hua-Yun; Liu, Yao-Bao; Li, Ju-Lin; Cao, Yuan-Yuan; Cao, Jun

    2013-04-01

    To explore a new mode of malaria elimination through the application of digital earth system in malaria epidemic management and surveillance. While we investigated the malaria cases and deal with the epidemic areas in Jiangsu Province in 2011, we used JISIBAO UniStrong G330 GIS data acquisition unit (GPS) to collect the latitude and longitude of the cases located, and then established a landmark library about early-warning areas and an image management system by using Google Earth Free 6.2 and its image processing software. A total of 374 malaria cases were reported in Jiangsu Province in 2011. Among them, there were 13 local vivax malaria cases, 11 imported vivax malaria cases from other provinces, 20 abroad imported vivax malaria cases, 309 abroad imported falciparum malaria cases, 7 abroad imported quartan malaria cases (Plasmodium malaria infection), and 14 abroad imported ovale malaria cases (P. ovale infection). Through the analysis of Google Earth Mapping system, these malaria cases showed a certain degree of aggregation except the abroad imported quartan malaria cases which were highly sporadic. The local vivax malaria cases mainly concentrated in Sihong County, the imported vivax malaria cases from other provinces mainly concentrated in Suzhou City and Wuxi City, the abroad imported vivax malaria cases concentrated in Nanjing City, the abroad imported falciparum malaria cases clustered in the middle parts of Jiangsu Province, and the abroad imported ovale malaria cases clustered in Liyang City. The operation of Google Earth Free 6.2 is simple, convenient and quick, which could help the public health authority to make the decision of malaria prevention and control, including the use of funds and other health resources.

  14. Groundwater pollution risk mapping for the Eocene aquifer of the Oum Er-Rabia basin, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettazarini, Said

    2006-11-01

    Sustainable development requires the management and preservation of water resources indispensable for all human activities. When groundwater constitutes the main water resource, vulnerability maps therefore are an important tool for identifying zones of high pollution risk and taking preventive measures in potential pollution sites. The vulnerability assessment for the Eocene aquifer in the Moroccan basin of Oum Er-Rabia is based on the DRASTIC method that uses seven parameters summarizing climatic, geological, and hydrogeological conditions controlling the seepage of pollutant substances to groundwater. Vulnerability maps were produced by using GIS techniques and applying the “generic” and “agricultural” models according to the DRASTIC charter. Resulting maps revealed that the aquifer is highly vulnerable in the western part of the basin and areas being under high contamination risk are more extensive when the “agricultural” model was applied.

  15. Developing a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halimi, Mansour; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Delavari, Mahdi; Arbabi, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    The strong relationship between climate and fascioliasis outbreaks enables the development of climate-based models to estimate the potential risk of fascioliasis outbreaks. This work aims to develop a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran using Ollerenshaw's fascioliasis risk index incorporating geographical information system (GIS). Using this index, a risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks for the entire country was developed. We determined that the country can be divided into 4 fascioliasis outbreak risk categories. Class 1, in which the Mt value is less than 100, includes more than 0.91 of the country's area. The climate in this class is not conducive to fascioliasis outbreaks in any month. Dryness and low temperature in the wet season (December to April) are the key barriers against fascioliasis outbreaks in this class. The risk map developed based on climatic factors indicated that only 0.03 of the country's area, including Gilan province in the northern region of Iran, is highly suitable to fascioliasis outbreaks during September to January. The Mt value is greater than 500 in this class. Heavy rainfall in the summer and fall, especially in Rasht, Astara and Bandar Anzaly (≥ 1000 mm/year), creates more suitable breeding places for snail intermediate hosts. Copyright © 2015 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Mapping Entomological Dengue Risk Levels in Martinique Using High-Resolution Remote-Sensing Environmental Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Machault

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Controlling dengue virus transmission mainly involves integrated vector management. Risk maps at appropriate scales can provide valuable information for assessing entomological risk levels. Here, results from a spatio-temporal model of dwellings potentially harboring Aedes aegypti larvae from 2009 to 2011 in Tartane (Martinique, French Antilles using high spatial resolution remote-sensing environmental data and field entomological and meteorological information are presented. This tele-epidemiology methodology allows monitoring the dynamics of diseases closely related to weather/climate and environment variability. A Geoeye-1 image was processed to extract landscape elements that could surrogate societal or biological information related to the life cycle of Aedes vectors. These elements were subsequently included into statistical models with random effect. Various environmental and meteorological conditions have indeed been identified as risk/protective factors for the presence of Aedes aegypti immature stages in dwellings at a given date. These conditions were used to produce dynamic high spatio-temporal resolution maps from the presence of most containers harboring larvae. The produced risk maps are examples of modeled entomological maps at the housing level with daily temporal resolution. This finding is an important contribution to the development of targeted operational control systems for dengue and other vector-borne diseases, such as chikungunya, which is also present in Martinique.

  17. Mapping of elements at risk for landslides in the tropics using airborne laser scanning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Razak, Khamarrul Azahari; van Westen, C.J.; Straatsma, Menno; ... [et al.],

    2011-01-01

    Mapping elements at risk for landslides in the tropics pose as a challenging task. Aerial-photograph, satellite imagery, and synthetic perture radar images are less effective to accurately provide physical presence of objects in a relatively short time. In this paper, we utilized an airborne laser

  18. Mapping sudden oak death risk nationally using host, climate, and pathways data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith

    2008-01-01

    In 2002, a team of United States Department of Agriculture-Forest Service (USDA-FS) scientists developed a preliminary risk map to serve as the foundation for an efficient, cost effective sample design for the national sudden oak death detection survey. At the time, a need to initiate rapid detection in the face of limited information on Phytophthora ramorum...

  19. An epidemiological overview of malaria in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Nazrul; Bonovas, Stefanos; Nikolopoulos, Georgios K

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is one of the four major malaria-endemic countries in South-East Asia having approximately 34% of its population at risk of malaria. This paper aims at providing an overview of the malaria situation in this country. Relevant information was retrieved from published articles and reports in PubMed and Google Scholar. Malaria in Bangladesh is concentrated in 13 districts with a prevalence ranging between 3.1% and 36%, and is mostly caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Geographical conditions pose a potential risk for Plasmodium knowlesi malaria. Resistance to a number of drugs previously recommended for treatment has been reported. Low socio-economic status, poor schooling and close proximity to water bodies and forest areas comprise important risk factors. Despite the significant steps in Long Lasting Insecticide Net (LLIN)/Insecticide Treated Net (ITN) coverage in Bangladesh, there are still many challenges including the extension of malaria support to the remote areas of Bangladesh, where malaria prevalence is higher, and further improvements in the field of referral system and treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Management of malaria in pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen J Rogerson

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pregnant women are especially susceptible to malaria infection. Without existing immunity, severe malaria can develop requiring emergency treatment, and pregnancy loss is common. In semi-immune women, consequences of malaria for the mother include anaemia while stillbirth, premature delivery and foetal growth restriction affect the developing foetus. Preventive measures include insecticide-treated nets and (in some African settings intermittent preventive treatment. Prompt management of maternal infection is key, using parenteral artemisinins for severe malaria, and artemisinin combination treatments (ACTs in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. ACTs may soon also be recommended as an alternative to quinine as a treatment in the first trimester of pregnancy. Monitoring the safety of antimalarials and understanding their pharmacokinetics is particularly important in pregnancy with the altered maternal physiology and the risks to the developing foetus. As increasing numbers of countries embrace malaria elimination as a goal, the special needs of the vulnerable group of pregnant women and their infants should not be overlooked.

  1. [Fake malaria drugs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bygbjerg, Ib Christian

    2009-03-02

    The literature on fake medicaments is sparse, even if approximately 15% of all medicaments are fake, a figure that for antimalarials in particular reaches 50% in parts of Africa and Asia. Sub-standard and fake medicines deplete the public's confidence in health systems, health professionals and in the pharmaceutical industry - and increase the risk that resistance develops. For a traveller coming from a rich Western country, choosing to buy e.g. preventive antimalarials over the internet or in poor malaria-endemic areas, the consequences may be fatal. International trade-, control- and police-collaboration is needed to manage the problem, as is the fight against poverty and poor governance.

  2. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  3. Rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA I: Epidemiology of urban malaria in Ouagadougou

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Convelbo Natalie

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rapid urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa has a major impact on malaria epidemiology. While much is known about malaria in rural areas in Burkina Faso, the urban situation is less well understood. Methods An assessment of urban malaria was carried out in Ouagadougou in November -December, 2002 during which a rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA was applied. Results The school parasitaemia prevalence was relatively high (48.3% at the cold and dry season 2002. Routine malaria statistics indicated that seasonality of malaria transmission was marked. In the health facilities, the number of clinical cases diminished quickly at the start of the cold and dry season and the prevalence of parasitaemia detected in febrile and non-febrile cases was 21.1% and 22.0%, respectively. The health facilities were likely to overestimate the malaria incidence and the age-specific fractions of malaria-attributable fevers were low (0–0.13. Peak prevalence tended to occur in older children (aged 6–15 years. Mapping of Anopheles sp. breeding sites indicated a gradient of endemicity between the urban centre and the periphery of Ouagadougou. A remarkable link was found between urban agriculture activities, seasonal availability of water supply and the occurrence of malaria infections in this semi-arid area. The study also demonstrated that the usage of insecticide-treated nets and the education level of family caretakers played a key role in reducing malaria infection rates. Conclusion These findings show that determining local endemicity and the rate of clinical malaria cases are urgently required in order to target control activities and avoid over-treatment with antimalarials. The case management needs to be tailored to the level of the prevailing endemicity.

  4. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denys Yemshanov

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker.We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion.While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decision-making preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and

  5. Mapping intra-urban transmission risk of dengue fever with big hourly cellphone data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Liang; Yin, Ling; Song, Xiaoqing; Mei, Shujiang

    2016-10-01

    Cellphone tracking has been recently integrated into risk assessment of disease transmission, because travel behavior of disease carriers can be depicted in unprecedented details. Still in its infancy, such an integration has been limited to: 1) risk assessment only at national and provincial scales, where intra-urban human movements are neglected, and 2) using irregularly logged cellphone data that miss numerous user movements. Furthermore, few risk assessments have considered positional uncertainty of cellphone data. This study proposed a new framework for mapping intra-urban disease risk with regularly logged cellphone tracking data, taking the dengue fever in Shenzhen city as an example. Hourly tracking records of 5.85 million cellphone users, combined with the random forest classification and mosquito activities, were utilized to estimate the local transmission risk of dengue fever and the importation risk through travels. Stochastic simulations were further employed to quantify the uncertainty of risk. The resultant maps suggest targeted interventions to maximally reduce dengue cases exported to other places, as well as appropriate interventions to contain risk in places that import them. Given the popularity of cellphone use in urbanized areas, this framework can be adopted by other cities to design spatio-temporally resolved programs for disease control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. [Nursing care mapping for patients at risk of falls in the Nursing Interventions Classification].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzia, Melissa de Freitas; Almeida, Miriam de Abreu; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

    2014-08-01

    Identifying the prescribed nursing care for hospitalized patients at risk of falls and comparing them with the interventions of the Nursing Interventions Classifications (NIC). A cross-sectional study carried out in a university hospital in southern Brazil. It was a retrospective data collection in the nursing records system. The sample consisted of 174 adult patients admitted to medical and surgical units with the Nursing Diagnosis of Risk for falls. The prescribed care were compared with the NIC interventions by the cross-mapping method. The most prevalent care were the following: keeping the bed rails, guiding patients/family regarding the risks and prevention of falls, keeping the bell within reach of patients, and maintaining patients' belongings nearby, mapped in the interventions Environmental Management: safety and Fall Prevention. The treatment prescribed in clinical practice was corroborated by the NIC reference.

  7. Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Hualiang

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is

  8. Mapping child maltreatment risk: a 12-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Marco, Miriam; Lila, Marisol

    2017-10-18

    'Place' matters in understanding prevalence variations and inequalities in child maltreatment risk. However, most studies examining ecological variations in child maltreatment risk fail to take into account the implications of the spatial and temporal dimensions of neighborhoods. In this study, we conduct a high-resolution small-area study to analyze the influence of neighborhood characteristics on the spatio-temporal epidemiology of child maltreatment risk. We conducted a 12-year (2004-2015) small-area Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemiological study with all families with child maltreatment protection measures in the city of Valencia, Spain. As neighborhood units, we used 552 census block groups. Cases were geocoded using the family address. Neighborhood-level characteristics analyzed included three indicators of neighborhood disadvantage-neighborhood economic status, neighborhood education level, and levels of policing activity-, immigrant concentration, and residential instability. Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling and disease mapping methods were used to provide area-specific risk estimations. Results from a spatio-temporal autoregressive model showed that neighborhoods with low levels of economic and educational status, with high levels of policing activity, and high immigrant concentration had higher levels of substantiated child maltreatment risk. Disease mapping methods were used to analyze areas of excess risk. Results showed chronic spatial patterns of high child maltreatment risk during the years analyzed, as well as stability over time in areas of low risk. Areas with increased or decreased child maltreatment risk over the years were also observed. A spatio-temporal epidemiological approach to study the geographical patterns, trends over time, and the contextual determinants of child maltreatment risk can provide a useful method to inform policy and action. This method can offer a more accurate description of the problem, and help to inform more

  9. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Morabito

    Full Text Available Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks.Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65.A long time-series (2001-2013 of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST. LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1 the Linear Regression Model (LRM; 2 the Generalized Additive Model (GAM. Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m from the 2001 census (Eurostat source, and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI.The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities.This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat

  10. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat

  11. Compositional cokriging for mapping the probability risk of groundwater contamination by nitrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Chica-Olmo, Mario; Luque-Espinar, Juan A; Rodríguez-Galiano, Víctor

    2015-11-01

    Contamination by nitrates is an important cause of groundwater pollution and represents a potential risk to human health. Management decisions must be made using probability maps that assess the nitrate concentration potential of exceeding regulatory thresholds. However these maps are obtained with only a small number of sparse monitoring locations where the nitrate concentrations have been measured. It is therefore of great interest to have an efficient methodology for obtaining those probability maps. In this paper, we make use of the fact that the discrete probability density function is a compositional variable. The spatial discrete probability density function is estimated by compositional cokriging. There are several advantages in using this approach: (i) problems of classical indicator cokriging, like estimates outside the interval (0,1) and order relations, are avoided; (ii) secondary variables (e.g. aquifer parameters) can be included in the estimation of the probability maps; (iii) uncertainty maps of the probability maps can be obtained; (iv) finally there are modelling advantages because the variograms and cross-variograms of real variables that do not have the restrictions of indicator variograms and indicator cross-variograms. The methodology was applied to the Vega de Granada aquifer in Southern Spain and the advantages of the compositional cokriging approach were demonstrated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Berrang-Ford

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

  13. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

    2017-06-01

    This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

  14. Atypical lymphocytes in malaria mimicking dengue infection in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polrat Wilairatana

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Polrat Wilairatana1, Noppadon Tangpukdee1, Sant Muangnoicharoen1, Srivicha Krudsood2, Shigeyuki Kano31Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, 2Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; 3Department of Tropical Medicine and Malaria, Research Institute, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, JapanAbstract: Patients with uncomplicated falciparum or vivax malaria usually present with acute febrile illness and thrombocytopenia similar to dengue infection. We retrospectively studied atypical lymphocytes (AL and atypical lymphocytosis (ALO, defined as AL > 5% of total white blood cells in 1310 uncomplicated malaria patients. In 718 falciparum malaria patients, AL and ALO on day 0 were found in 53.2% and 5.7% of the patients, respectively, with median AL on admission of 1% (range 0%–10%, whereas in 592 vivax malaria patients, AL and ALO on day 0 were found in 55.4% and 9.5% of the patients, respectively, with median AL on admission of 1% (range 0%–14%. After antimalarial treatment, AL and ALO declined in both falciparum and vivax malaria. However, AL and ALO remained in falciparum malaria on days 7, 14, and 21, whereas AL and ALO remained in vivax malaria on days 7, 14, 21, and 28. In both falciparum and vivax malaria patients, there was a positive correlation between AL and total lymphocytes, but a negative correlation between AL and highest fever on admission, white blood cells, and neutrophils, eosinophils, and platelets (P < 0.05. In conclusion, AL or ALO may be found in uncomplicated falciparum and vivax malaria mimicking dengue infection. In tropical countries where both dengue and malaria are endemic, presence of AL or ALO in any acute febrile patients with thrombocytopenia (similar to the findings in dengue malaria could not be excluded. Particularly if the patients have risk of malaria infection, confirmative microscopic examination for malaria should be carried out

  15. Geographical information system and predictive risk maps of urinary schistosomiasis in Ogun State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solarin Adewale RT

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The control of urinary schistosomiasis in Ogun State, Nigeria remains inert due to lack of reliable data on the geographical distribution of the disease and the population at risk. To help in developing a control programme, delineating areas of risk, geographical information system and remotely sensed environmental images were used to developed predictive risk maps of the probability of occurrence of the disease and quantify the risk for infection in Ogun State, Nigeria. Methods Infection data used were derived from carefully validated morbidity questionnaires among primary school children in 2001–2002, in which school children were asked among other questions if they have experienced "blood in urine" or urinary schistosomiasis. The infection data from 1,092 schools together with remotely sensed environmental data such as rainfall, vegetation, temperature, soil-types, altitude and land cover were analysis using binary logistic regression models to identify environmental features that influence the spatial distribution of the disease. The final regression equations were then used in Arc View 3.2a GIS software to generate predictive risk maps of the distribution of the disease and population at risk in the state. Results Logistic regression analysis shows that the only significant environmental variable in predicting the presence and absence of urinary schistosomiasis in any area of the State was Land Surface Temperature (LST (B = 0.308, p = 0.013. While LST (B = -0.478, p = 0.035, rainfall (B = -0.006, p = 0.0005, ferric luvisols (B = 0.539, p = 0.274, dystric nitosols (B = 0.133, p = 0.769 and pellic vertisols (B = 1.386, p = 0.008 soils types were the final variables in the model for predicting the probability of an area having an infection prevalence equivalent to or more than 50%. The two predictive risk maps suggest that urinary schistosomiasis is widely distributed and occurring in all the Local Government Areas (LGAs

  16. Prevalence of Malaria among Children 1 – 10 Years Old in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    and examined for malarial parasite under the microscope using the oil immersion ... African children under five years and pregnant women are most at risk of malaria. Fatally ..... the commonest complication of malaria. among 1 -5 age groups.

  17. Mapping regional soil water erosion risk in the Brittany-Loire basin for water management agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degan, Francesca; Cerdan, Olivier; Salvador-Blanes, Sébastien; Gautier, Jean-Noël

    2014-05-01

    Soil water erosion is one of the main degradation processes that affect soils through the removal of soil particles from the surface. The impacts for environment and agricultural areas are diverse, such as water pollution, crop yield depression, organic matter loss and reduction in water storage capacity. There is therefore a strong need to produce maps at the regional scale to help environmental policy makers and soil and water management bodies to mitigate the effect of water and soil pollution. Our approach aims to model and map soil erosion risk at regional scale (155 000 km²) and high spatial resolution (50 m) in the Brittany - Loire basin. The factors responsible for soil erosion are different according to the spatial and time scales considered. The regional scale entails challenges about homogeneous data sets availability, spatial resolution of results, various erosion processes and agricultural practices. We chose to improve the MESALES model (Le Bissonnais et al., 2002) to map soil erosion risk, because it was developed specifically for water erosion in agricultural fields in temperate areas. The MESALES model consists in a decision tree which gives for each combination of factors the corresponding class of soil erosion risk. Four factors that determine soil erosion risk are considered: soils, land cover, climate and topography. The first main improvement of the model consists in using newly available datasets that are more accurate than the initial ones. The datasets used cover all the study area homogeneously. Soil dataset has a 1/1 000 000 scale and attributes such as texture, soil type, rock fragment and parent material are used. The climate dataset has a spatial resolution of 8 km and a temporal resolution of mm/day for 12 years. Elevation dataset has a spatial resolution of 50 m. Three different land cover datasets are used where the finest spatial resolution is 50 m over three years. Using these datasets, four erosion factors are characterized and

  18. Malaria burden in irregular migrants returning to Sri Lanka from human smuggling operations in West Africa and implications for a country reaching malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramage, K; Galappaththy, G N L

    2013-05-01

    The number of malaria cases among irregular migrants returning to Sri Lanka has not been investigated. In the first 6 months of 2012 we screened 287 irregular migrants returning from seven West African nations to Sri Lanka for malaria to ascertain the risk of infection during migration. Four men were diagnosed as having malaria: three with Plasmodium falciparum had travelled to Togo and one with P. vivax had travelled to Guinea. The risk of contracting malaria was 14 cases per 1000. Facilitating a safe return with selective screening for at-risk inbound migrants flows is desirable as Sri Lanka advances towards its goal of malaria elimination.

  19. Long-term impact of childhood malaria infection on school performance among school children in a malaria endemic area along the Thai-Myanmar border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorasan, Nutchavadee; Pan-Ngum, Wirichada; Jittamala, Podjanee; Maneeboonyang, Wanchai; Rukmanee, Prasert; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

    2015-10-09

    Children represent a high-risk group for malaria worldwide. Among people in Thailand who have malaria during childhood, some may have multiple malaria attacks during their lifetime. Malaria may affect neurological cognition in children, resulting in short-term impairment of memory and language functions. However, little is known regarding the long-term effects of malaria infection on cognitive function. This study examines the long-term impact of malaria infection on school performance among school children living in a malaria-endemic area along the Thai-Myanmar border. A retrospective cohort study was conducted among school children aged 6-17 years in a primary-secondary school of a sub-district of Ratchaburi Province, Thailand. History of childhood malaria infection was obtained from the medical records of the sole malaria clinic in the area. School performance was assessed by using scores for the subjects Thai Language and Mathematics in 2014. Other variables, such as demographic characteristics, perinatal history, nutritional status, and emotional intelligence, were also documented. A total of 457 students were included, 135 (30 %) of whom had a history of uncomplicated malaria infection. About half of the malaria-infected children had suffered infection before the age of four years. The mean scores for both Mathematics and Thai Language decreased in relation to the increasing number of malaria attacks. Most students had their last malaria episode more than two years previously. The mean scores were not associated with duration since the last malaria attack. The association between malaria infection and school performance was not significant after adjusting for potential confounders, including gender, school absenteeism over a semester term, and emotional intelligence. This study characterizes the long-term consequences of uncomplicated malaria disease during childhood. School performance was not associated with a history of malaria infection, considering that

  20. RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s

  1. UK malaria treatment guidelines 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalloo, David G; Shingadia, Delane; Bell, David J; Beeching, Nicholas J; Whitty, Christopher J M; Chiodini, Peter L

    2016-06-01

    1.Malaria is the tropical disease most commonly imported into the UK, with 1300-1800 cases reported each year, and 2-11 deaths. 2. Approximately three quarters of reported malaria cases in the UK are caused by Plasmodium falciparum, which is capable of invading a high proportion of red blood cells and rapidly leading to severe or life-threatening multi-organ disease. 3. Most non-falciparum malaria cases are caused by Plasmodium vivax; a few cases are caused by the other species of plasmodium: Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae or Plasmodium knowlesi. 4. Mixed infections with more than one species of parasite can occur; they commonly involve P. falciparum with the attendant risks of severe malaria. 5. There are no typical clinical features of malaria; even fever is not invariably present. Malaria in children (and sometimes in adults) may present with misleading symptoms such as gastrointestinal features, sore throat or lower respiratory complaints. 6. A diagnosis of malaria must always be sought in a feverish or sick child or adult who has visited malaria-endemic areas. Specific country information on malaria can be found at http://travelhealthpro.org.uk/. P. falciparum infection rarely presents more than six months after exposure but presentation of other species can occur more than a year after exposure. 7. Management of malaria depends on awareness of the diagnosis and on performing the correct diagnostic tests: the diagnosis cannot be excluded until more than one blood specimen has been examined. Other travel related infections, especially viral haemorrhagic fevers, should also be considered. 8. The optimum diagnostic procedure is examination of thick and thin blood films by an expert to detect and speciate the malarial parasites. P. falciparum and P. vivax (depending upon the product) malaria can be diagnosed almost as accurately using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) which detect plasmodial antigens. RDTs for other Plasmodium species are not as reliable. 9

  2. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2010-01-01

    The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

  3. Geopan AT@S: a Brokering Based Gateway to Georeferenced Historical Maps for Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previtali, M.

    2017-08-01

    Importance of ancient and historical maps is nowadays recognized in many applications (e.g., urban planning, landscape valorisation and preservation, land changes identification, etc.). In the last years a great effort has been done by different institutions, such as Geographical Institutes, Public Administrations, and collaborative communities, for digitizing and publishing online collections of historical maps. In spite of this variety and availability of data, information overload makes difficult their discovery and management: without knowing the specific repository where the data are stored, it is difficult to find the information required. In addition, problems of interconnection between different data sources and their restricted interoperability may arise. This paper describe a new brokering based gateway developed to assure interoperability between data, in particular georeferenced historical maps and geographic data, gathered from different data providers, with various features and referring to different historical periods. The developed approach is exemplified by a new application named GeoPAN Atl@s that is aimed at linking in Northern Italy area land changes with risk analysis (local seismicity amplification and flooding risk) by using multi-temporal data sources and historic maps.

  4. Malaria Treatment (United States)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Providers, Emergency Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us Malaria Treatment (United States) Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Treatment of Malaria: Guidelines For Clinicians (United States) Download PDF version ...

  5. Risk Map of Cholera Infection for Vaccine Deployment: The Eastern Kolkata Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Young Ae; Ali, Mohammad; Kanungo, Suman; Sah, Binod; Manna, Byomkesh; Puri, Mahesh; Nair, G. Balakrish; Bhattacharya, Sujit Kumar; Convertino, Matteo; Deen, Jacqueline L.; Lopez, Anna Lena; Wierzba, Thomas F.; Clemens, John; Sur, Dipika

    2013-01-01

    Background Despite advancement of our knowledge, cholera remains a public health concern. During March-April 2010, a large cholera outbreak afflicted the eastern part of Kolkata, India. The quantification of importance of socio-environmental factors in the risk of cholera, and the calculation of the risk is fundamental for deploying vaccination strategies. Here we investigate socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas as well as the potential impact of vaccination on the spatial occurrence of the disease. Methods and Findings The study area comprised three wards of Kolkata Municipal Corporation. A mass cholera vaccination campaign was conducted in mid-2006 as the part of a clinical trial. Cholera cases and data of the trial to identify high risk areas for cholera were analyzed. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to detect risk areas, and to evaluate the importance of socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas. During the one-year pre-vaccination and two-year post-vaccination periods, 95 and 183 cholera cases were detected in 111,882 and 121,827 study participants, respectively. The GAM model predicts that high risk areas in the west part of the study area where the outbreak largely occurred. High risk areas in both periods were characterized by poor people, use of unsafe water, and proximity to canals used as the main drainage for rain and waste water. Cholera vaccine uptake was significantly lower in the high risk areas compared to low risk areas. Conclusion The study shows that even a parsimonious model like GAM predicts high risk areas where cholera outbreaks largely occurred. This is useful for indicating where interventions would be effective in controlling the disease risk. Data showed that vaccination decreased the risk of infection. Overall, the GAM-based risk map is useful for policymakers, especially those from countries where cholera remains to be endemic with periodic outbreaks. PMID:23936491

  6. Malaria transmission in Tripura: Disease distribution & determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dev, Vas; Adak, Tridibes; Singh, Om P; Nanda, Nutan; Baidya, Bimal K

    2015-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in Tripura and focal disease outbreaks are of frequent occurrence. The state is co-endemic for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax and transmission is perennial and persistent. The present study was aimed to review data on disease distribution to prioritize high-risk districts, and to study seasonal prevalence of disease vectors and their bionomical characteristics to help formulate vector species-specific interventions for malaria control. Data on malaria morbidity in the State were reviewed retrospectively (2008-2012) for understanding disease distribution and transmission dynamics. Cross-sectional mass blood surveys were conducted in malaria endemic villages of South Tripura district to ascertain the prevalence of malaria and proportions of parasite species. Mosquito collections were made in human dwellings of malaria endemic villages aiming at vector incrimination and to study relative abundance, resting and feeding preferences, and their present susceptibility status to DDT. The study showed that malaria was widely prevalent and P. falciparum was the predominant infection (>90%), the remaining were P. vivax cases. The disease distribution, however, was uneven with large concentration of cases in districts of South Tripura and Dhalai coinciding with vast forest cover and tribal populations. Both Anopheles minimus s.s. and An. baimaii were recorded to be prevalent and observed to be highly anthropophagic and susceptible to DDT. Of these, An. minimus was incriminated (sporozoite infection rate 4.92%), and its bionomical characteristics revealed this species to be largely indoor resting and endophagic. For effective control of malaria in the state, it is recommended that diseases surveillance should be robust, and vector control interventions including DDT spray coverage, mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets/ long-lasting insecticidal nets should be intensified prioritizing population groups most at risk to

  7. Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, W. K.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Pizzitutti, F.; Berky, A.; Feingold, B.; Mena, C.; Janko, M.

    2017-12-01

    Reported cases of malaria in the western Amazon regions of Peru, Colombia and Ecuador have more than tripled since 2011. Responding to this epidemic has been challenging given large-scale environmental impacts and demographic changes combined with changing financial and political priorities. In Peru alone, malaria cases increased 5-fold since 2011. Reasons include changes in the Global Malaria Fund, massive flooding in 2012, the "mega" El Nino in 2016, and continued natural resource extraction via logging and mining. These challenges prompted the recent creation of the Malaria Cero program in 2017 with the goal to eradicate malaria by 2021. To assist in malaria eradiation, a team of investigators supported by NASA have been developing an Early Warning System for Malaria. The system leverages demographic, epidemiological, meteorological and land use/cover data to develop a four-component system that will improve detection of malaria across the western Amazon Basin. System components include a land data assimilation system (LDAS) to estimate past and future hydrological states and flux, a seasonal human population model to estimate population at risk and spatial connectivity to high risk transmission areas, a sub-regional statistical model to identify when and where observed malaria cases have exceeded those expected, and an Agent Based Model (ABM) to integrate human, environmental, and entomological transmission dynamics with potential strategies for control. Data include: daily case detection reports between 2000 and 2017 from all health posts in the region of Loreto in the northern Peruvian Amazon; LDAS outputs (precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar radiation) at a 1km and weekly scale; satellite-derived estimates of land cover; and human population size from census and health data. This presentation will provide an overview of components, focusing on how the system identifies an outbreak and plans for technology transfer.

  8. ABO phenotypes and malaria related outcomes in mothers and babies in The Gambia: a role for histo-blood groups in placental malaria?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loscertales, María-Paz; Brabin, Bernard J.

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Host susceptibility to P.falciparum is critical for understanding malaria in pregnancy, its consequences for the mother and baby, and for improving malaria control in pregnant women. Yet host genetic factors which could influence placental malaria risk are little studied and there are no

  9. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

    2017-09-25

    The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a

  10. Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

    2007-12-07

    A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

  11. Development and distribution of radon risk maps in New York State

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitto, M.E.; Kunz, C.O.; New York State Univ., Albany, NY; Green, J.G.

    2001-01-01

    Radon maps for each county in New York State have been developed on the township level indicating the percent of homes with ≥ 148 Bq/m 3 (4 pCi/l) in the indoor air of the basement and living area. Estimates are based on a combination of nearly 45,000 basement-screening measurements and correlations to surficial geology. Many of the towns and cities in the State with the highest average indoor radon concentrations are located on highly-permeable gravelly soils formed during the retreat of the Wisconsinan Glaciation. As many towns (32% of total) had ≤ 5 measurements, a project to obtain additional measurements in high-risk towns produced results comparable to estimates based on correlations to surficial geology. Radon risk maps for each county have been distributed to municipal governments, schools, and professionals in activities related to homes, buildings, and indoor air quality. (author)

  12. STATUS HEMATOLOGI PENDERITA MALARIA SEREBRAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurhayati Nurhayati

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available AbstrakMalaria masih merupakan masalah kesehatan masyarakat dunia. Berdasarkan klasifikasi klinis, malaria dibedakan atas malaria berat dan malaria tanpa komplikasi. Malaria serebral merupakan komplikasi terberat dari malaria falsiparum.Telah dilakukan penelitian seksi silang terhadap penderita malaria falciparum yang dirawat inap di Bangsal Penyakit Dalam RS. Perjan. Dr. M. Djamil Padang dari bulan Juni 2002 sampai Juni 2006. Pada penelitian ini didapatkan jumlah sampel sebanyak 60 orang, terdiri dari 16 orang penderita malaria serebral dan 44 orang penderita malaria tanpa komplikasi.Data penelitian menunjukan terdapat perbedaan bermakna nilai hematokrit (p<0,05 dan jumlah leukosit (p<0,05 antara penderita malaria serebral dengan penderita malaria tanpa komplikasi. Dan terdapat korelasi positif antara nilai hemoglobin dengan hematokrit (r=0,864; p<0,05 pada penderita malaria falsiparum.Kata kunci: malaria serebral, malaria tanpa komplikasi, malaria falsiparumAbstract Malaria is still a problem of health of world society. Based on the clinical classification, are distinguished on severe malaria and uncomplicated malaria. Cerebral malaria is the worst complication of falciparum malaria. Cross section of the research done at the Hospital Dr. M. Djamil Padang againts medical record of malaria patients who are hospitalized in the Internal Medicine from June 2002 until June 2004. In this study, a total sample of 60 people, consisting of 16 cerebral malaria and 44 uncomplicated malaria. Data showed there were significant differences for hematocrit values (p <0.05 and total leukocytes values (p <0.05 between cerebral malaria and uncomplicated malaria patients. There is a positive correlation between hemoglobin with hematocrit values (r = 0.864; p <0.05 of falciparum malaria patients. Keywords: cerebral malaria, uncomplicated malaria, falciparum malaria

  13. Space-time clustering of childhood malaria at the household level: a dynamic cohort in a Mali village

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ouattara Amed

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the risk of malaria have led the WHO to recommend fine-scale stratification of the epidemiological situation, making it possible to set up actions and clinical or basic researches targeting high-risk zones. Before initiating such studies it is necessary to define local patterns of malaria transmission and infection (in time and in space in order to facilitate selection of the appropriate study population and the intervention allocation. The aim of this study was to identify, spatially and temporally, high-risk zones of malaria, at the household level (resolution of 1 to 3 m. Methods This study took place in a Malian village with hyperendemic seasonal transmission as part of Mali-Tulane Tropical Medicine Research Center (NIAID/NIH. The study design was a dynamic cohort (22 surveys, from June 1996 to June 2001 on about 1300 children (Plasmodium falciparum, P. malariae and P. ovale infection and P. falciparum gametocyte carriage by means of time series and Kulldorff's scan statistic for space-time cluster detection. Results The time series analysis determined that malaria parasitemia (primarily P. falciparum was persistently present throughout the population with the expected seasonal variability pattern and a downward temporal trend. We identified six high-risk clusters of P. falciparum infection, some of which persisted despite an overall tendency towards a decrease in risk. The first high-risk cluster of P. falciparum infection (rate ratio = 14.161 was detected from September 1996 to October 1996, in the north of the village. Conclusion This study showed that, although infection proportions tended to decrease, high-risk zones persisted in the village particularly near temporal backwaters. Analysis of this heterogeneity at the household scale by GIS methods lead to target preventive actions more accurately on the high-risk zones identified. This mapping of malaria risk makes it possible

  14. Imported Malaria in Children in Industrialized Countries, 1992–2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stäger, Katrin; Legros, Fabrice; Krause, Gérard; Low, Nicola; Bradley, David; Desai, Meghna; Graf, Simone; D’Amato, Stefania; Mizuno, Yasutaka; Janzon, Ragnhild; Petersen, Eskild; Kester, John; Steffen, Robert

    2009-01-01

    Children account for an appreciable proportion of total imported malaria cases, yet few studies have quantified these cases, identified trends, or suggested evidence-based prevention strategies for this group of travelers. We therefore sought to identify numbers of cases and deaths, Plasmodium species, place of malaria acquisition, preventive measures used, and national origin of malaria in children. We analyzed retrospective data from Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States and data provided by the United Nations World Tourism Organization. During 1992–2002, >17,000 cases of imported malaria in children were reported in 11 countries where malaria is not endemic; most (>70%) had been acquired in Africa. Returning to country of origin to visit friends and relatives was a risk factor. Malaria prevention for children should be a responsibility of healthcare providers and should be subsidized for low-income travelers to high-risk areas. PMID:19193261

  15. Imported malaria in children in industrialized countries, 1992-2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stäger, Katrin; Legros, Fabrice; Krause, Gérard; Low, Nicola; Bradley, David; Desai, Meghna; Graf, Simone; D'Amato, Stefania; Mizuno, Yasutaka; Janzon, Ragnhild; Petersen, Eskild; Kester, John; Steffen, Robert; Schlagenhauf, Patricia

    2009-02-01

    Children account for an appreciable proportion of total imported malaria cases, yet few studies have quantified these cases, identified trends, or suggested evidence-based prevention strategies for this group of travelers. We therefore sought to identify numbers of cases and deaths, Plasmodium species, place of malaria acquisition, preventive measures used, and national origin of malaria in children. We analyzed retrospective data from Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States and data provided by the United Nations World Tourism Organization. During 1992-2002, >17,000 cases of imported malaria in children were reported in 11 countries where malaria is not endemic; most (>70%) had been acquired in Africa. Returning to country of origin to visit friends and relatives was a risk factor. Malaria prevention for children should be a responsibility of healthcare providers and should be subsidized for low-income travelers to high-risk areas.

  16. Mapping Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: progress in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storie, Judith M.

    2018-05-01

    Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies in Africa are on the increase. South Africa is no different, and a number of strategies have seen the light in aid of reducing disaster risk and adapting to cli-mate change. The DRR and CCA processes include the mapping of location and extent of known and potential hazards, vulnerable communities and environments, and opportunities that may exist to manage these risks. However, the mapping of often fast-changing urban and rural spaces in a standardized manner presents challenges that relate to processes, scales of data capture, level of detail recorded, software and compatibility related to data formats and net-works, human resources skills and understanding, as well as differences in approaches to the nature in which the map-ping processes are executed and spatial data is managed. As a result, projects and implementation of strategies that re-late to the use of such data is affected, and the success of activities based on the data may therefore be uncertain. This paper investigates data custodianship and data categories that is processed and managed across South Africa. It explores the process and content management of disaster risk and climate change related information and defines the challenges that exist in terms of governance. The paper also comments on the challenges and potential solutions for the situation as it gives rise to varying degrees of accuracy, effectiveness for use, and applicability of the spatial data available to affect DRR and improve the value of CCA programmes in the region.

  17. Landscape epidemiology: An emerging perspective in the mapping and modelling of disease and disease risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nnadi Nnaemeka Emmanuel

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Landscape epidemiology describes how the temporal dynamics of host, vector, and pathogen populations interact spatially within a permissive environment to enable transmission. It also aims at understanding the vegetation and geologic conditions that are necessary for the maintenance and transmission of a particular pathogen. The current review describes the evolution of landscape epidemiology. As a science, it also highlights the various methods of mapping and modeling diseases and disease risk factors. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk.

  18. Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

    2017-11-01

    The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

  19. Outcomes of imported malaria during pregnancy within Venezuelan states: implications for travel advice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J; Arria, Melissa; Sánchez, Elia; Vargas, Miguel; Piccolo, Carmelina; Colina, Rosa; Franco-Paredes, Carlos

    2007-01-01

    Prevention of malaria in pregnant women is an utmost priority because the disease can cause serious maternal and neonatal complications. Maternal complications include marked anemia, increased risk of severe disease, and mortality, while the fetus or neonate is at risk of prematurity, anemia, and low birthweight. Pregnant women living in malaria endemic areas may be semiimmune to a particular Plasmodium spp. but when traveling to other regions, sometimes within their same country, where malaria epidemiology is different, may develop severe malaria complications. Here, we describe our experience in northeastern Venezuela associated with unfavorable outcomes of imported malaria cases among pregnant women who traveled to other Venezuelan regions with different malaria epidemiology. Travel medicine practitioners should be aware and educate their pregnant patients regarding the risk of malaria even when living in malaria endemic areas and traveling to other endemic areas such as occurs in Venezuela.

  20. Comparison of the large-scale radon risk map for southern Belgium with results of high resolution surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, H.-C.; Charlet, J.M.; Poffijn, A.

    2000-01-01

    A large-scale radon survey consisting of long-term measurements in about 5200 singe-family houses in the southern part of Belgium was carried from 1995 to 1999. A radon risk map for the region was produced using geostatistical and GIS approaches. Some communes or villages situated within high risk areas were chosen for detailed surveys. A high resolution radon survey with about 330 measurements was performed in half part of the commune of Burg-Reuland. Comparison of radon maps on quite different scales shows that the general Rn risk map has similar pattern as the radon map for the detailed study area. Another detailed radon survey in the village of Hatrival, situated in a high radon area, found very high proportion of houses with elevated radon concentrations. The results of this detailed survey are comparable to the expectation for high risk areas on the large-scale radon risk map. The good correspondence between the findings of the general risk map and the analysis of the limited detailed surveys, suggests that the large-scale radon risk map is likely reliable. (author)

  1. Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersson Neil

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0, through risk analysis (levels 1–3 to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4. Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity.

  2. Dispensing and determinants of non-adherence to treatment for non complicated malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in high-risk municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio-de-Castro, Claudia G S; Suárez-Mutis, Martha C; Miranda, Elaine S; Luz, Tatiana C B

    2015-11-26

    In Brazil, 99.7 % of malaria cases occur in the Amazon region. Although the number of cases is decreasing, the country accounted for almost 60 % of cases in the Americas Region, in 2013. Novel approaches for malaria treatment open the possibility of eliminating the disease, but suboptimal dispensing and lack of adherence influence treatment outcomes. The aim of this paper is to show the results on dispensing practices, non-adherence and determinants of non-adherence to treatment of non-complicated malaria. The study was conducted in six high-risk municipalities with Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Brazilian Amazon and based on the theoretical framework of the Mafalda Project, which included investigation of dispensing and adherence. The World Health Organization Rapid Evaluation Method has been used to estimate sample size. Individuals over 15 years of age with malaria were approached at health facilities and invited to participate through informed consent. Data was collected in chart review forms focusing on diagnosis, Plasmodium type, prescribing, and dispensing (kind, quantity, labelling and procedures). Follow-up household interviews complemented data collection at health facility. Non-adherence was measured during the implementation phase, by self-reports and pill-counts. Analysis was descriptive and statistical tests were carried out. Determinants of non-adherence and quality of dispensing were assessed according to the literature. The study involved 165 patients. Dispensing was done according to the national guidelines. Labelling was adequate for P. vivax but inadequate for P. falciparum medicines. Non-adherent patients were 12.1 % according to self-reports and 21.8 % according to pill-counts. Results point to greater non-adherence among all P. falciparum patients and among malaria non-naîve patients. More patients informed understanding adverse effects than 'how to use' anti-malarials. Non-adherent patients were mostly those

  3. Immunochromatographic antigen testing alone is sufficient to identify asymptomatic refugees at risk of severe malaria presenting to a single health service in Victoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedele, Pasquale L; Wheeler, Michael; Lemoh, Christopher; Chunilal, Sanjeev

    2014-10-01

    Current screening guidelines for malaria in new refugees include a combination of thick and thin film examination and immunochromatographic antigen test (ICT). However, as the prevalence of malaria in our population has decreased due to changing refugee demographics, we sought to determine if an ICT alone can reliably exclude malaria in our asymptomatic refugee population.A retrospective analysis was conducted of all investigations for malaria performed from 1 August 2011 to 31 July 2013, including thick and thin blood film examination, BinaxNOW ICT, and external morphological and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) validation where applicable.Malaria was diagnosed in 45 of 1248 (3.6%) patients investigated, all of whom were symptomatic and the majority (71.1%) returned travellers. All 599 asymptomatic refugees screened were negative. Overall, 42 of 45 malaria cases were detected by the ICT; sensitivity 93.3% (95% CI 80.7-98.3%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 99.8% (99.2-99.9%). All 21 cases of Plasmodium falciparum and 20 of 22 cases of Plasmodium vivax were detected, giving a sensitivity of 100% (80.8-100%) and 90.9% (69.4-98.4%) respectively. Too few cases of Plasmodium malariae and no cases of Plasmodium ovale or Plasmodium knowlesi were diagnosed for adequate assessment to be carried out.These data suggest that full malaria screening in all asymptomatic refugees with the combination of thick and thin blood films and rapid antigen test may not be warranted. Alternative screening approaches should be considered, including the use of ICT alone, or limiting screening of asymptomatic refugees to only those originating from countries with high incidence of malaria.

  4. Economic cost analysis of malaria case management at the household level during the malaria elimination phase in The People's Republic of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Shang; Ma, Jin-Xiang; Wang, Duo-Quan; Li, Shi-Zhu; Rollinson, David; Zhou, Shui-Sen; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2016-06-03

    In China, malaria has been posing a significant economic burden on households. To evaluate malaria economic burden in terms of both direct and indirect costs has its meaning in improving the effectiveness of malaria elimination program in China. A number of study sites (eight counties in five provinces) were selected from the malaria endemic area in China, representing the different levels of malaria incidence, risk classification, economic development. A number of households with malaria cases (n = 923) were surveyed during the May to December in 2012 to collect information on malaria economic burden. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the basic profiles of selected malaria cases in terms of their gender, age group, occupation and malaria type. The malaria economic costs were evaluated by direct and indirect costs. Comparisons were carried out by using the chi-square test (or Z-test) and the Mann-Whitney U test among malaria cases with reference to local/imported malaria patients, hospitalized/out patients, and treatment hospitals. The average cost of malaria per case was 1 691.23 CNY (direct cost was 735.41 CNY and indirect cost was 955.82 CNY), which accounted for 11.1 % of a household's total income. The average costs per case for local and imported malaria were 1 087.58 CNY and 4271.93 CNY, respectively. The average cost of a malaria patient being diagnosed and treated in a hospital at the county level or above (3 975.43 CNY) was 4.23 times higher than that of malaria patient being diagnosed and treated at a village or township hospital (938.80 CNY). This study found that malaria has been posing a significant economic burden on households in terms of direct and indirect costs. There is a need to improve the effectiveness of interventions in order to reduce the impact costs of malaria, especially of imported infections, in order to eliminate the disease in China.

  5. Malaria in Kakuma refugee camp, Turkana, Kenya: facilitation of Anopheles arabiensis vector populations by installed water distribution and catchment systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cetron Martin S

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major health concern for displaced persons occupying refugee camps in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is little information on the incidence of infection and nature of transmission in these settings. Kakuma Refugee Camp, located in a dry area of north-western Kenya, has hosted ca. 60,000 to 90,000 refugees since 1992, primarily from Sudan and Somalia. The purpose of this study was to investigate malaria prevalence and attack rate and sources of Anopheles vectors in Kakuma refugee camp, in 2005-2006, after a malaria epidemic was observed by staff at camp clinics. Methods Malaria prevalence and attack rate was estimated from cases of fever presenting to camp clinics and the hospital in August 2005, using rapid diagnostic tests and microscopy of blood smears. Larval habitats of vectors were sampled and mapped. Houses were sampled for adult vectors using the pyrethrum knockdown spray method, and mapped. Vectors were identified to species level and their infection with Plasmodium falciparum determined. Results Prevalence of febrile illness with P. falciparum was highest among the 5 to 17 year olds (62.4% while malaria attack rate was highest among the two to 4 year olds (5.2/1,000/day. Infected individuals were spatially concentrated in three of the 11 residential zones of the camp. The indoor densities of Anopheles arabiensis, the sole malaria vector, were similar during the wet and dry seasons, but were distributed in an aggregated fashion and predominantly in the same zones where malaria attack rates were high. Larval habitats and larval populations were also concentrated in these zones. Larval habitats were man-made pits of water associated with tap-stands installed as the water delivery system to residents with year round availability in the camp. Three percent of A. arabiensis adult females were infected with P. falciparum sporozoites in the rainy season. Conclusions Malaria in Kakuma refugee camp was due mainly

  6. An app for climate-based Chikungunya risk monitoring and mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, R. P.; Rama, X.; Jepsen, R.; Bijoria, S.; Linthicum, K. J.; Anyamba, A.

    2017-12-01

    There is an increasing concern for reemergence and spread of chikungunya in the last 10 years in Africa, the Indian Ocean, and Asia, and range expansion that now reaches the Caribbean, South America and threatens North America. The outbreak of Chikungunya in 2013 and its spread throughout the Americas has so far resulted in more than 1.7 million suspected cases. This has demonstrated the importance of readiness in assessing potential risk of the emergence of vector-borne diseases. Climate and ecological conditions are now recognized as major contributors to the emergence and re-emergence of various vector-borne diseases including Chikungunya. Variations and persistence of extreme climate conditions provide suitable environment for the increase of certain disease vector populations, which then further amplify vector-borne disease transmission. This highlights the importance of climate anomaly information in assessing regions at risk for Chikungunya. In order to address such issue, we are developing a climate-based app, CHIKRISK, which will help decision makers to answer three critical questions: (i) Where has Chikungunya activity occurred; (ii) Where it is occurring now; (iii) Which regions are currently at risk for Chikungunya. We first develop a database of historical Chikungunya outbreak locations compiled from publicly available information. These records are used to map where Chikungunya activity has occurred over time. We leverage on various satellite-based climate data records - such as rainfall, land surface and near surface temperature to characterize evolving conditions prior to and during Chikungunya activity. Chikungunya outbreak data, climate and ancillary (i.e. population and elevation) data are used to develop analytics capability that will produce risk maps. The CHIKRISK app has the capability to visualize historical Chikungunya activity locations, climate anomaly conditions and Chikungunya risk maps. Currently, the focus of the development is on the

  7. Fine-Mapping of Common Genetic Variants Associated with Colorectal Tumor Risk Identified Potential Functional Variants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengmeng Du

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified many common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs associated with colorectal cancer risk. These SNPs may tag correlated variants with biological importance. Fine-mapping around GWAS loci can facilitate detection of functional candidates and additional independent risk variants. We analyzed 11,900 cases and 14,311 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and the Colon Cancer Family Registry. To fine-map genomic regions containing all known common risk variants, we imputed high-density genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project. We tested single-variant associations with colorectal tumor risk for all variants spanning genomic regions 250-kb upstream or downstream of 31 GWAS-identified SNPs (index SNPs. We queried the University of California, Santa Cruz Genome Browser to examine evidence for biological function. Index SNPs did not show the strongest association signals with colorectal tumor risk in their respective genomic regions. Bioinformatics analysis of SNPs showing smaller P-values in each region revealed 21 functional candidates in 12 loci (5q31.1, 8q24, 11q13.4, 11q23, 12p13.32, 12q24.21, 14q22.2, 15q13, 18q21, 19q13.1, 20p12.3, and 20q13.33. We did not observe evidence of additional independent association signals in GWAS-identified regions. Our results support the utility of integrating data from comprehensive fine-mapping with expanding publicly available genomic databases to help clarify GWAS associations and identify functional candidates that warrant more onerous laboratory follow-up. Such efforts may aid the eventual discovery of disease-causing variant(s.

  8. CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, M.; Chokmani, K.; Bernier, M.; Poulin, J.

    2013-12-01

    When a flood affects an urban area, the managers and services responsible for public safety need precise and real time information on the localization of the flooded areas, on the submersion heights in those areas, but also on the vulnerability of people exposed to this hazard. Such information is essential for an effective crisis management. Despite a growing interest in this topic over the last 15 years, the development of flood risk assessment tools mainly focused on quantitative modeling of the monetary damages caused by floods to residential buildings or to critical infrastructures. Little attention was paid to the vulnerability of people exposed to flooding but also to the effects of the failure or destruction of critical infrastructures and residential building on people health and security during the disaster. Moreover, these models do not integrate the dynamic features of the flood (extent, submersion heights) and the evolution of human vulnerability in the same mapping tool. Thus, an accurate and precise evaluation of human risk induced by urban flooding is hardly feasible using such models. This study presents CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas, which fills the actual needs in terms of flood risk evaluation and management. This innovative tool integrates a methodology of flood hazard mapping that simulates, for a given discharge, the associated water level, and subsequently determines the extent of the flooded area and the submersion heights at each point of the flooded area, using a DEM. The dynamics of human vulnerability is then mapped at the household level, according to the characteristics of the flood hazard. Three key components of human vulnerability have been identified and are integrated to CADYRI: 1, the intrinsic vulnerability of the population, estimated by specific socio-economic indicators; 2, the vulnerability of buildings, assessed by their structural features; 3, the vulnerability of

  9. Increasing Incidence of Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria following Control of P. falciparum and P. vivax Malaria in Sabah, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, Timothy; Rahman, Hasan A.; Jelip, Jenarun; Ibrahim, Mohammad Y.; Menon, Jayaram; Grigg, Matthew J.; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Barber, Bridget E.

    2013-01-01

    Background The simian parasite Plasmodium knowlesi is a common cause of human malaria in Malaysian Borneo and threatens the prospect of malaria elimination. However, little is known about the emergence of P. knowlesi, particularly in Sabah. We reviewed Sabah Department of Health records to investigate the trend of each malaria species over time. Methods Reporting of microscopy-diagnosed malaria cases in Sabah is mandatory. We reviewed all available Department of Health malaria notification records from 1992–2011. Notifications of P. malariae and P. knowlesi were considered as a single group due to microscopic near-identity. Results From 1992–2011 total malaria notifications decreased dramatically, with P. falciparum peaking at 33,153 in 1994 and decreasing 55-fold to 605 in 2011, and P. vivax peaking at 15,857 in 1995 and decreasing 25-fold to 628 in 2011. Notifications of P. malariae/P. knowlesi also demonstrated a peak in the mid-1990s (614 in 1994) before decreasing to ≈100/year in the late 1990s/early 2000s. However, P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications increased >10-fold between 2004 (n = 59) and 2011 (n = 703). In 1992 P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae/P. knowlesi monoinfections accounted for 70%, 24% and 1% respectively of malaria notifications, compared to 30%, 31% and 35% in 2011. The increase in P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications occurred state-wide, appearing to have begun in the southwest and progressed north-easterly. Conclusions A significant recent increase has occurred in P. knowlesi notifications following reduced transmission of the human Plasmodium species, and this trend threatens malaria elimination. Determination of transmission dynamics and risk factors for knowlesi malaria is required to guide measures to control this rising incidence. PMID:23359830

  10. Spatial synchrony of malaria outbreaks in a highland region of Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, Michael C; Midekisa, Alemayehu; Semuniguse, Paulos; Teka, Hiwot; Henebry, Geoffrey M; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Senay, Gabriel B

    2012-10-01

    To understand the drivers and consequences of malaria in epidemic-prone regions, it is important to know whether epidemics emerge independently in different areas as a consequence of local contingencies, or whether they are synchronised across larger regions as a result of climatic fluctuations and other broad-scale drivers. To address this question, we collected historical malaria surveillance data for the Amhara region of Ethiopia and analysed them to assess the consistency of various indicators of malaria risk and determine the dominant spatial and temporal patterns of malaria within the region. We collected data from a total of 49 districts from 1999-2010. Data availability was better for more recent years and more data were available for clinically diagnosed outpatient malaria cases than confirmed malaria cases. Temporal patterns of outpatient malaria case counts were correlated with the proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria and confirmed malaria case counts. The proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria was spatially clustered, and these cluster locations were generally consistent from year to year. Outpatient malaria cases exhibited spatial synchrony at distances up to 300 km, supporting the hypothesis that regional climatic variability is an important driver of epidemics. Our results suggest that decomposing malaria risk into separate spatial and temporal components may be an effective strategy for modelling and forecasting malaria risk across large areas. They also emphasise both the value and limitations of working with historical surveillance datasets and highlight the importance of enhancing existing surveillance efforts. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Irrigation salinity hazard assessment and risk mapping in the lower Macintyre Valley, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jingyi; Prochazka, Melissa J; Triantafilis, John

    2016-05-01

    In the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia, secondary soil salinization occurs due to excessive deep drainage and the presence of shallow saline water tables. In order to understand the cause and best management, soil and vadose zone information is necessary. This type of information has been generated in the Toobeah district but owing to the state border an inconsistent methodology was used. This has led to much confusion from stakeholders who are unable to understand the ambiguity of the results in terms of final overall risk of salinization. In this research, a digital soil mapping method that employs various ancillary data is presented. Firstly, an electromagnetic induction survey using a Geonics EM34 and EM38 was used to characterise soil and vadose zone stratigraphy. From the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) collected, soil sampling locations were selected and with laboratory analysis carried out to determine average (2-12m) clay and EC of a saturated soil-paste extract (ECe). EM34 ECa, land surface parameters derived from a digital elevation model and measured soil data were used to establish multiple linear regression models, which allowed for mapping of various hazard factors, including clay and ECe. EM38 ECa data were calibrated to deep drainage obtained from Salt and Leaching Fraction (SaLF) modelling of soil data. Expert knowledge and indicator kriging were used to determine critical values where the salinity hazard factors were likely to contribute to a shallow saline water table (i.e., clay ≤35%; ECe>2.5dS/m, and deep drainage >100mm/year). This information was combined to produce an overall salinity risk map for the Toobeah district using indicator kriging. The risk map shows potential salinization areas and where detailed information is required and where targeted research can be conducted to monitor soil conditions and water table heights and determine best management strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public

  13. Malaria in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohee, Lauren M; Laufer, Miriam K

    2017-08-01

    Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in endemic areas, leading to an estimated 438,000 deaths in 2015. Malaria is also an important health threat to travelers to endemic countries and should be considered in evaluation of any traveler returning from a malaria-endemic area who develops fever. Considering the diagnosis of malaria in patients with potential exposure is critical. Prompt provision of effective treatment limits the complications of malaria and can be life-saving. Understanding Plasmodium species variation, epidemiology, and drug-resistance patterns in the geographic area where infection was acquired is important for determining treatment choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Environmental sensitivity mapping and risk assessment for oil spill along the Chennai Coast in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kankara, R S; Arockiaraj, S; Prabhu, K

    2016-05-15

    Integration of oil spill modeling with coastal resource information could be useful for protecting the coastal environment from oil spills. A scenario-based risk assessment and sensitivity indexing were performed for the Chennai coast by integrating a coastal resource information system and an oil spill trajectory model. The fate analysis of spilled oil showed that 55% of oil out of a total volume of 100m(3) remained in the water column, affecting 800m of the shoreline. The seasonal scenarios show major impact during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoons and more fatal effects on marine pelagic organisms during SW monsoon. The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Modeler tool was constructed in a geographic information systems (GIS) platform to analyze the risks, sensitivity mapping, and priority indexing of resources that are likely to be affected by oil spills along the Chennai coast. The results of sensitivity mapping and the risk assessment results can help organizations take measures to combat oil spills in a timely manner. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

  16. Malaria og graviditet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, A L; Rønn, A M; Langhoff-Roos, J

    1992-01-01

    In regions where malaria is endemism, the disease is a recognised cause of complications of pregnancy such as spontaneous abortion, premature delivery, intrauterine growth retardation and foetal death. Malaria is seldom seen in pregnant women in Denmark but, during the past two years, the authors...... the patients but also their practitioners were unaware that malaria can occur several years after exposure. Three out of the four patients had employed malaria prophylaxis. As resistance to malarial prophylactics in current use is increasing steadily, chemoprophylaxis should be supplemented by mechanical...... protection against malaria and insect repellents. As a rule, malaria is treated with chloroquine. In cases of Falciparum malaria in whom chloroquine resistance is suspected, treatment with mefloquine may be employed although this should only be employed in cases of dire necessity in pregnant patients during...

  17. Impacts of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltahir, E. A. B.; Endo, N.; Yamana, T. K.

    2017-12-01

    Malaria is a major vector-borne parasitic disease transmitted to humans by Anopheles spp mosquitoes. Africa is the hotspot for malaria transmission where more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year. Malaria transmission is an intricate function of climatic factors, which non-linearly affect the development of vectors and parasites. We project that the risk of malaria will increase towards the end of the 21st century in east Africa, but decrease in west Africa. We combine a novel malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS, that has been developed based on comprehensive multi-year field surveys both in East Africa and West Africa, and the most reliable climate projections through regional dynamical downscaling and rigorous selection of GCMs from among CMIP5 models. We define a bell-shaped relation between malaria intensity and temperature, centered around a temperature of 30°C. Future risks of malaria are projected for two highly populated regions in Africa: the highlands in East Africa and the fringes of the desert in West Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, temperature is substantially colder than this optimal temperature; warmer future climate exacerbate malaria conditions. In the Sahel fringes in West Africa, temperature is around this optimal temperature; warming is not likely to exacerbate and might even reduce malaria burden. Unlike the highlands of East Africa, which receive significant amounts of annual rainfall, dry conditions also limit malaria transmission in the Sahel fringes in West Africa. This disproportionate risk of malaria due to climate change should guide strategies for climate adaptation over Africa.

  18. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

    2010-08-15

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  19. Mapping and evaluation of snow avalanche risk using GIS technique in Rodnei National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covǎsnianu, Adrian; Grigoraş, Ioan-Rǎducu; Covǎsnianu, Liliana-Elena; Iordache, Iulian; Balin, Daniela

    2010-05-01

    The study consisted in a precise mapping project (GPS field campaign, on-screen digitization of the topographic maps at 1:25.000 scale and updated with ASTER mission) of the Rodnei National Park area (Romanian Carpathians) with a focus on snow avalanche risk survey. Parameters taken into account were slope, aspect, altitude, landforms and roughness resulted from a high resolute numerical terrain model obtained by ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) mission. The resulted digital surface model with a spatial resolution of 10 m covered a total area of 187 square kilometers and was improved by the help of Topo to Raster tool. All these parameters were calibrated after a model applied onto Tatra Massive and also Ceahlău Mountain. The results were adapted and interpreted in accordance with European avalanche hazard scale. This work was made in the context of the elaboration of Risk Map and is directly concerning both the security of tourism activities but also the management of the Rodnei Natural Park. The extension of this method to similar mountain areas is ongoing.

  20. Agriculture pest and disease risk maps considering MSG satellite data and land surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques da Silva, J. R.; Damásio, C. V.; Sousa, A. M. O.; Bugalho, L.; Pessanha, L.; Quaresma, P.

    2015-06-01

    Pest risk maps for agricultural use are usually constructed from data obtained from in-situ meteorological weather stations, which are relatively sparsely distributed and are often quite expensive to install and difficult to maintain. This leads to the creation of maps with relatively low spatial resolution, which are very much dependent on interpolation methodologies. Considering that agricultural applications typically require a more detailed scale analysis than has traditionally been available, remote sensing technology can offer better monitoring at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions, thereby, improving pest management results and reducing costs. This article uses ground temperature, or land surface temperature (LST), data distributed by EUMETSAT/LSASAF (with a spatial resolution of 3 × 3 km (nadir resolution) and a revisiting time of 15 min) to generate one of the most commonly used parameters in pest modeling and monitoring: "thermal integral over air temperature (accumulated degree-days)". The results show a clear association between the accumulated LST values over a threshold and the accumulated values computed from meteorological stations over the same threshold (specific to a particular tomato pest). The results are very promising and enable the production of risk maps for agricultural pests with a degree of spatial and temporal detail that is difficult to achieve using in-situ meteorological stations.

  1. Mapping Soil Erosion Factors and Potential Erosion Risk for the National Park "Central Balkan"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilieva, Diliana; Malinov, Ilia

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion is widely recognised environmental problem. The report aims at presenting the main results from assessment and mapping of the factors of sheet water erosion and the potential erosion risk on the territory of National Park "Central Balkan". For this purpose, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was used for predicting soil loss from erosion. The influence of topography (LS